Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

2014-07-09

Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

A novel personal cooling system (PCS) incorporated with phase change materials (PCMs) and ventilation fans: An investigation on its cooling efficiency.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Yehu; Wei, Fanru; Lai, Dandan; Shi, Wen; Wang, Faming; Gao, Chuansi; Song, Guowen

2015-08-01

Personal cooling systems (PCS) have been developed to mitigate the impact of severe heat stress for humans working in hot environments. It is still a great challenge to develop PCSs that are portable, inexpensive, and effective. We studied the performance of a new hybrid PCS incorporating both ventilation fans and phase change materials (PCMs). The cooling efficiency of the newly developed PCS was investigated on a sweating manikin in two hot conditions: hot humid (HH, 34°C, 75% RH) and hot dry (HD, 34°C, 28% RH). Four test scenarios were selected: fans off with no PCMs (i.e., Fan-off, the CONTROL), fans on with no PCMs (i.e., Fan-on), fans off with fully solidified PCMs (i.e., PCM+Fan-off), and fans on with fully solidified PCMs (i.e., PCM+Fan-on). It was found that the addition of PCMs provided a 54∼78min cooling in HH condition. In contrast, the PCMs only offered a 19-39min cooling in HD condition. In both conditions, the ventilation fans greatly enhanced the evaporative heat loss compared with Fan-off. The hybrid PCS (i.e., PCM+Fan-on) provided a continuous cooling effect during the three-hour test and the average cooling rate for the whole body was around 111 and 315W in HH and HD conditions, respectively. Overall, the new hybrid PCS may be an effective means of ameliorating symptoms of heat stress in both hot-humid and hot-dry environments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating uncertainty analysis into life cycle estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, David R.; Willis, Henry H.; Curtright, Aimee E.; Samaras, Constantine; Skone, Timothy

2011-01-01

Before further investments are made in utilizing biomass as a source of renewable energy, both policy makers and the energy industry need estimates of the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions expected from substituting biobased fuels for fossil fuels. Such GHG reductions depend greatly on how the biomass is cultivated, transported, processed, and converted into fuel or electricity. Any policy aiming to reduce GHGs with biomass-based energy must account for uncertainties in emissions at each stage of production, or else it risks yielding marginal reductions, if any, while potentially imposing great costs. This paper provides a framework for incorporating uncertainty analysis specifically into estimates of the life cycle GHG emissions from the production of biomass. We outline the sources of uncertainty, discuss the implications of uncertainty and variability on the limits of life cycle assessment (LCA) models, and provide a guide for practitioners to best practices in modeling these uncertainties. The suite of techniques described herein can be used to improve the understanding and the representation of the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, thus enabling improved decision making with respect to the use of biomass for energy and fuel production. -- Highlights: → We describe key model, scenario and data uncertainties in LCAs of biobased fuels. → System boundaries and allocation choices should be consistent with study goals. → Scenarios should be designed around policy levers that can be controlled. → We describe a new way to analyze the importance of covariance between inputs.

Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

2012-01-19

Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

Reader Reaction On the generalized Kruskal-Wallis test for genetic association studies incorporating group uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Wu, Baolin; Guan, Weihua

2014-01-01

Acar and Sun (2013, Biometrics, 69, 427-435) presented a generalized Kruskal-Wallis (GKW) test for genetic association studies that incorporated the genotype uncertainty and showed its robust and competitive performance compared to existing methods. We present another interesting way to derive the GKW test via a rank linear model.

Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Daniel P.; Norton, Andrew S.; Storm, Daniel J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.; Heisy, Dennis M.

2018-01-01

Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection

Value change in oil and gas production: V. Incorporation of uncertainties and determination of relative importance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lerche, I.; Noeth, S.

2002-01-01

The influence of two fundamentally different types of uncertainty on the value of oil field production are investigated here. First considered is the uncertainty caused by the fact that the expected value estimate is not one of the possible outcomes. To correctly allow for the risk attendant upon using the expected value as a measure of worth, even with statistically sharp parameters, one needs to incorporate the uncertainty of the expected value. Using a simple example we show how such incorporation allows for a clear determination of the relative risk of projects that may have the same expected value but very different risks. We also show how each project can be risked on its own using the expected value and variance. This uncertainty type is due to the possible pathways for different outcomes even when parameters categorizing the system are taken to be known. Second considered is the risk due to the fact that parameters in oil field estimates are just estimates and, as such, have their own intrinsic errors that influence the possible outcomes and make them less certain. This sort of risk depends upon the uncertainty of each parameter, and also the type of distribution the parameters are taken to be drawn from. In addition, not all uncertainties in parameters values are of equal importance in influencing an outcome probability. We show how can determine the relative importance for the parameters and so determine where to place effort to resolve the dominant contributions to risk if it is possible to do so. Considerations of whether to acquire new information, and also whether to undertake further studies under such an uncertain environment, are used as vehicles to address these concerns of risk due to uncertainty. In general, an oil field development project has to contend with all the above types of risk and uncertainty. It is therefore of importance to have quantitative measures of risk so that one can compare and contrast the various effects, and so that

Reader reaction on the generalized Kruskal-Wallis test for genetic association studies incorporating group uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Baolin; Guan, Weihua

2015-06-01

Acar and Sun (2013, Biometrics 69, 427-435) presented a generalized Kruskal-Wallis (GKW) test for genetic association studies that incorporated the genotype uncertainty and showed its robust and competitive performance compared to existing methods. We present another interesting way to derive the GKW test via a rank linear model. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-01-01

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

A review of reactor physics uncertainties and validation requirements for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baxter, A.M.; Lane, R.K.; Hettergott, E.; Lefler, W.

1991-01-01

The important, safety-related, physics parameters for the low-enriched Modular High-Temperature gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) such as control rod worth, shutdown margins, temperature coefficients, and reactivity worths, are considered, and estimates are presented of the uncertainties in the calculated values of these parameters. The basis for the uncertainty estimate in several of the important calculated parameters is reviewed, including the available experimental data used in obtaining these estimates. Based on this review, the additional experimental data needed to complete the validation of the methods used to calculate these parameters is presented. The role of benchmark calculations in validating MHTGR reactor physics data is also considered. (author). 10 refs, 5 figs, 3 tabs

Incorporating wind generation forecast uncertainty into power system operation, dispatch, and unit commitment procedures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jiam; Subbarao, Krishnappa [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

2010-07-01

An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the ''flying-brick'' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors. (orig.)

Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

2010-09-01

The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

1997-08-01

From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

Incorporating outcome uncertainty and prior outcome beliefs in stated preferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick

2015-01-01

Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents......’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty...

Gambling in Latin: incorporating uncertainty in risk management

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gratt, L.B.; Levin, L. (IWG Corporation, San Diego, CA (United States))

1994-08-01

Risk assessment uses assumptions based on differing degrees of conservatism. This complicates the understanding of the uncertainty in the final risk estimate. Uncertainties arise from each component of the risk assessment process: source terms, atmospheric transport, exposure, and dose response. Probabilistic modeling using Monte Carlo and Latin Square sampling techniques (reference to Gambling in Latin) allows for an improved approach to risk assessment and management. 16 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

Davis-Besse uncertainty study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, C.B.

1987-08-01

The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results

Incorporating uncertainties into risk assessment with an application to the exploratory studies facilities at Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fathauer, P.M.

1995-08-01

A methodology that incorporates variability and reducible sources of uncertainty into the probabilistic and consequence components of risk was developed. The method was applied to the north tunnel of the Exploratory Studies Facility at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. In this assessment, variability and reducible sources of uncertainty were characterized and propagated through the risk assessment models using a Monte Carlo based software package. The results were then manipulated into risk curves at the 5% and 95% confidence levels for both the variability and overall uncertainty analyses, thus distinguishing between variability and reducible sources of uncertainty. In the Yucca Mountain application, the designation of the north tunnel as an item important to public safety, as defined by 10 CFR 60, was determined. Specifically, the annual frequency of a rock fall breaching a waste package causing an off-site dose of 500 mrem (5x10 -3 Sv) was calculated. The annual frequency, taking variability into account, ranged from 1.9x10 -9 per year at the 5% confidence level to 2.5x10 -9 per year at the 95% confidence level. The frequency range after including all uncertainty was 9.5x10 -10 to 1.8x10 -8 per year. The maximum observable frequency, at the 100% confidence level, was 4.9x10 -8 per year. This is below the 10 -6 per year frequency criteria of 10 CFR 60. Therefore, based on this work, the north tunnel does not fall under the items important to public safety designation for the event studied

Using structured decision making with landowners to address private forest management and parcelization: balancing multiple objectives and incorporating uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Paige F. B. Ferguson; Michael J. Conroy; John F. Chamblee; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman

2015-01-01

Parcelization and forest fragmentation are of concern for ecological, economic, and social reasons. Efforts to keep large, private forests intact may be supported by a decision-making process that incorporates landowners’ objectives and uncertainty. We used structured decision making (SDM) with owners of large, private forests in Macon County, North Carolina....

Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land use harmonization, radiative kernels, and reanalysis

Science.gov (United States)

Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Wang, Zhuosen; Schaaf, Crystal; He, Tao

2014-12-01

Widespread anthropogenic land cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion has been partially offset by cooling from elevated albedo, but considerable uncertainty remains partly because of uncertainty in model treatments of albedo. This study incorporates a new spatially and temporally explicit, land cover specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product) to provide more precise, observationally derived estimates of albedo impacts from anthropogenic land cover change with a complete range of data set specific uncertainty. The mean annual global albedo increase due to land cover change during 1700-2005 was estimated as 0.00106 ± 0.00008 (mean ± standard deviation), mainly driven by snow exposure due to land cover transitions from natural vegetation to agriculture. This translates to a top-of-atmosphere radiative cooling of -0.15 ± 0.1 W m-2 (mean ± standard deviation). Our estimate was in the middle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report range of -0.05 to -0.25 W m-2 and incorporates variability in albedo within land cover classes.

Incorporating organ movements in inverse planning: assessing dose uncertainties by Bayesian inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unkelbach, J; Oelfke, U

2005-01-01

We present a method to calculate dose uncertainties due to inter-fraction organ movements in fractionated radiotherapy, i.e. in addition to the expectation value of the dose distribution a variance distribution is calculated. To calculate the expectation value of the dose distribution in the presence of organ movements, one estimates a probability distribution of possible patient geometries. The respective variance of the expected dose distribution arises for two reasons: first, the patient is irradiated with a finite number of fractions only and second, the probability distribution of patient geometries has to be estimated from a small number of images and is therefore not exactly known. To quantify the total dose variance, we propose a method that is based on the principle of Bayesian inference. The method is of particular interest when organ motion is incorporated in inverse IMRT planning by means of inverse planning performed on a probability distribution of patient geometries. In order to make this a robust approach, it turns out that the dose variance should be considered (and minimized) in the optimization process. As an application of the presented concept of Bayesian inference, we compare three approaches to inverse planning based on probability distributions that account for an increasing degree of uncertainty. The Bayes theorem further provides a concept to interpolate between patient specific data and population-based knowledge on organ motion which is relevant since the number of CT images of a patient is typically small

Mathematical modelling and optimization of a large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system that incorporates unit changeover and time-of-use electricity price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Qiannan; Luo, Xianglong; Zhang, Bingjian; Chen, Ying

2017-01-01

Highlights: • We propose a novel superstructure for the design and optimization of LSCCHP. • A multi-objective multi-period MINLP model is formulated. • The unit start-up cost and time-of-use electricity prices are involved. • Unit size discretization strategy is proposed to linearize the original MINLP model. • A case study is elaborated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. - Abstract: Building energy systems, particularly large public ones, are major energy consumers and pollutant emission contributors. In this study, a superstructure of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system is constructed. The off-design unit, economic cost, and CO_2 emission models are also formulated. Moreover, a multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is formulated for the simultaneous system synthesis, technology selection, unit sizing, and operation optimization of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system. Time-of-use electricity price and unit changeover cost are incorporated into the problem model. The economic objective is to minimize the total annual cost, which comprises the operation and investment costs of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system. The environmental objective is to minimize the annual global CO_2 emission of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system. The augmented ε–constraint method is applied to achieve the Pareto frontier of the design configuration, thereby reflecting the set of solutions that represent optimal trade-offs between the economic and environmental objectives. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to reflect the impact of natural gas price on the combined cooling, heat, and power system. The synthesis and design of combined cooling, heat, and power system for an airport in China is studied to test the proposed synthesis and design methodology. The Pareto curve of multi-objective optimization shows that the total annual cost varies from 102.53 to 94.59 M

Evaluating Prognostics Performance for Algorithms Incorporating Uncertainty Estimates

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Uncertainty Representation and Management (URM) are an integral part of the prognostic system development.1As capabilities of prediction algorithms evolve, research...

Delayed neutron spectra and their uncertainties in fission product summation calculations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miyazono, T.; Sagisaka, M.; Ohta, H.; Oyamatsu, K.; Tamaki, M. [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)

1997-03-01

Uncertainties in delayed neutron summation calculations are evaluated with ENDF/B-VI for 50 fissioning systems. As the first step, uncertainty calculations are performed for the aggregate delayed neutron activity with the same approximate method as proposed previously for the decay heat uncertainty analyses. Typical uncertainty values are about 6-14% for {sup 238}U(F) and about 13-23% for {sup 243}Am(F) at cooling times 0.1-100 (s). These values are typically 2-3 times larger than those in decay heat at the same cooling times. For aggregate delayed neutron spectra, the uncertainties would be larger than those for the delayed neutron activity because much more information about the nuclear structure is still necessary. (author)

Incorporating organ movements in IMRT treatment planning for prostate cancer: Minimizing uncertainties in the inverse planning process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unkelbach, Jan; Oelfke, Uwe

2005-01-01

We investigate an off-line strategy to incorporate inter fraction organ movements in IMRT treatment planning. Nowadays, imaging modalities located in the treatment room allow for several CT scans of a patient during the course of treatment. These multiple CT scans can be used to estimate a probability distribution of possible patient geometries. This probability distribution can subsequently be used to calculate the expectation value of the delivered dose distribution. In order to incorporate organ movements into the treatment planning process, it was suggested that inverse planning could be based on that probability distribution of patient geometries instead of a single snapshot. However, it was shown that a straightforward optimization of the expectation value of the dose may be insufficient since the expected dose distribution is related to several uncertainties: first, this probability distribution has to be estimated from only a few images. And second, the distribution is only sparsely sampled over the treatment course due to a finite number of fractions. In order to obtain a robust treatment plan these uncertainties should be considered and minimized in the inverse planning process. In the current paper, we calculate a 3D variance distribution in addition to the expectation value of the dose distribution which are simultaniously optimized. The variance is used as a surrogate to quantify the associated risks of a treatment plan. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated for clinical data of prostate patients. Different scenarios of dose expectation values and corresponding variances are discussed

Thoughts on Incorporating HPRF in a Linear Cooling Channel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallardo, Juan C.; Zisman, Michael S.

2009-01-01

We discuss a possible implementation of high-pressure gas-filled RF (HPRF) cavities in a linear cooling channel for muons and some of the technical issues that must be dealt with. The approach we describe is a hybrid approach that uses high-pressure hydrogen gas to avoid cavity breakdown, along with discrete LiH absorbers to provide the majority of the energy loss. Initial simulations show that the channel performs as well as the original vacuum RF channel while potentially avoiding the degradation in RF gradient associated with the strong magnetic field in the cooling channel.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the tritium breeding ratio of a DEMO fusion reactor with a helium cooled pebble bed blanket

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nunnenmann Elena

2017-01-01

Full Text Available An uncertainty analysis was performed for the tritium breeding ratio (TBR of a fusion power plant of the European DEMO type using the MCSEN patch to the MCNP Monte Carlo code. The breeding blanket was of the type Helium Cooled Pebble Bed (HCPB, currently under development in the European Power Plant Physics and Technology (PPPT programme for a fusion power demonstration reactor (DEMO. A suitable 3D model of the DEMO reactor with HCPB blanket modules, as routinely used for blanket design calculations, was employed. The nuclear cross-section data were taken from the JEFF-3.2 data library. For the uncertainty analysis, the isotopes H-1, Li-6, Li-7, Be-9, O-16, Si-28, Si-29, Si-30, Cr-52, Fe-54, Fe-56, Ni-58, W-182, W-183, W-184 and W-186 were considered. The covariance data were taken from JEFF-3.2 where available. Otherwise a combination of FENDL-2.1 for Li-7, EFF-3 for Be-9 and JENDL-3.2 for O-16 were compared with data from TENDL-2014. Another comparison was performed with covariance data from JEFF-3.3T1. The analyses show an overall uncertainty of ± 3.2% for the TBR when using JEFF-3.2 covariance data with the mentioned additions. When using TENDL-2014 covariance data as replacement, the uncertainty increases to ± 8.6%. For JEFF-3.3T1 the uncertainty result is ± 5.6%. The uncertainty is dominated by O-16, Li-6 and Li-7 cross-sections.

Sensisivity and Uncertainty analysis for the Tritium Breeding Ratio of a DEMO Fusion reactor with a Helium cooled pebble bed blanket

OpenAIRE

Nunnenmann, Elena; Fischer, Ulrich; Stieglitz, Robert

2016-01-01

An uncertainty analysis was performed for the tritium breeding ratio (TBR) of a fusion power plant of the European DEMO type using the MCSEN patch to the MCNP Monte Carlo code. The breeding blanket was of the type Helium Cooled Pebble Bed (HCPB), currently under development in the European Power Plant Physics and Technology (PPPT) programme for a fusion power demonstration reactor (DEMO). A suitable 3D model of the DEMO reactor with HCPB blanket modules, as routinely used for blanket design c...

Nuclear reactor core support incorporating also a cooling fluid flow system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pennell, W.E.

1975-01-01

A description is given of a core bearing plate with several modular intake units having cooling fluid intake openings on their lower extensions, and on their upper ends located above the bearing plate, at least one fuel assembly which is thus in communication with the area under the bearing plate through the modular intake unit. The means for introducing the cooling fluid into the reactor vessel area are located under the bearing plate. The lower ends of the modular intake have ribs arranged essentially on a plane and join together with openings provided between the seals, in such a manner that the ribs form a barrier. The cooling fluid intake openings are located above this barrier, so that the cooling fluid is compelled to cross it before penetrating into the modular intake units [fr

Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

Science.gov (United States)

Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

2014-07-01

The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design.

Science.gov (United States)

Halpern, Benjamin S; Regan, Helen M; Possingham, Hugh P; McCarthy, Michael A

2006-01-01

Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

Atherosclerotic plaque component segmentation in combined carotid MRI and CTA data incorporating class label uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

van Engelen, Arna; Niessen, Wiro J.; Klein, Stefan

2014-01-01

Atherosclerotic plaque composition can indicate plaque vulnerability. We segment atherosclerotic plaque components from the carotid artery on a combination of in vivo MRI and CT-angiography (CTA) data using supervised voxelwise classification. In contrast to previous studies the ground truth...... for training is directly obtained from 3D registration with histology for fibrous and lipid-rich necrotic tissue, and with [Formula: see text]CT for calcification. This registration does, however, not provide accurate voxelwise correspondence. We therefore evaluate three approaches that incorporate uncertainty......), II) samples are weighted by the local contour distance of the lumen and outer wall between histology and in vivo data, and III) 10% of each class is rejected by Gaussian outlier rejection. Classification was evaluated on the relative volumes (% of tissue type in the vessel wall) for calcified...

Achieving 95% probability level using best estimate codes and the code scaling, applicability and uncertainty (CSAU) [Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty] methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.; Katsma, K.R.; Lellouche, G.S.; Rohatgi, U.S.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

1988-01-01

Issue of a revised rule for loss of coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (LOCA/ECCS) analysis of light water reactors will allow the use of best estimate (BE) computer codes in safety analysis, with uncertainty analysis. This paper describes a systematic methodology, CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty), which will provide uncertainty bounds in a cost effective, auditable, rational and practical manner. 8 figs., 2 tabs

Effect of closed loop cooling water transit time on containment cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.P.; Vossahlik, J.E.; Goodwin, E.F.

1996-01-01

Long term containment cooling analyses in nuclear plant systems are usually conducted assuming a quasi steady-state process, that is, a steady state evaluation of the cooling system is completed for each calculational step. In reality, fluid transport in the system, and heat addition to system components may affect the heat removal rate of the system. Transient effects occurring during system startup may affect the maximum temperatures experienced in the system. It is important to ensure that such transient effects do not affect operation of the system (e.g., cause a high temperature trip). To evaluate the effect of fluid transit delays, a closed loop cooling water system model has been developed that incorporates the fluid transport times when determining the closed loop cooling system performance. This paper describes the closed loop cooling system model as implemented in the CONTEMPT-LT/028 code. The evaluation of the transient temperature response of the closed loop cooling system using the model is described. The paper also describes the effect of fluid transit time on the overall containment cooling performance

Uncertainty analysis for geologic disposal of radioactive waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cranwell, R.M.; Helton, J.C.

1981-01-01

The incorporation and representation of uncertainty in the analysis of the consequences and risks associated with the geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste are discussed. Such uncertainty has three primary components: process modeling uncertainty, model input data uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. The following topics are considered in connection with the preceding components: propagation of uncertainty in the modeling of a disposal site, sampling of input data for models, and uncertainty associated with model output

Use of a temperature-initiated passive cooling system (TIPACS) for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forsberg, C.W.; Conklin, J.; Reich, W.J.

1994-04-01

A new type of passive cooling system has been invented (Forsberg 1993): the Temperature-Initiated Passive Cooling System (TIPACS). The characteristics of the TIPACS potentially match requirements for an improved reactor-cavity-cooling system (RCCS) for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR). This report is an initial evaluation of the TIPACS for the MHTGR with a Rankines (steam) power conversion cycle. Limited evaluations were made of applying the TIPACS to MHTGRs with reactor pressure vessel temperatures up to 450 C. These temperatures may occur in designs of Brayton cycle (gas turbine) and process heat MHTGRs. The report is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the containment cooling issues associated with the MHTGR and the requirements for such a cooling system. Section 3 describes TIPACS in nonmathematical terms. Section 4 describes TIPACS's heat-removal capabilities. Section 5 analyzes the operation of the temperature-control mechanism that determines under what conditions the TIPACS rejects heat to the environment. Section 6 addresses other design and operational issues. Section 7 identifies uncertainties, and Section 8 provides conclusions. The appendixes provide the detailed data and models used in the analysis

Use of a temperature-initiated passive cooling system (TIPACS) for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Forsberg, C.W.; Conklin, J.; Reich, W.J.

1994-04-01

A new type of passive cooling system has been invented (Forsberg 1993): the Temperature-Initiated Passive Cooling System (TIPACS). The characteristics of the TIPACS potentially match requirements for an improved reactor-cavity-cooling system (RCCS) for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR). This report is an initial evaluation of the TIPACS for the MHTGR with a Rankines (steam) power conversion cycle. Limited evaluations were made of applying the TIPACS to MHTGRs with reactor pressure vessel temperatures up to 450 C. These temperatures may occur in designs of Brayton cycle (gas turbine) and process heat MHTGRs. The report is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the containment cooling issues associated with the MHTGR and the requirements for such a cooling system. Section 3 describes TIPACS in nonmathematical terms. Section 4 describes TIPACS`s heat-removal capabilities. Section 5 analyzes the operation of the temperature-control mechanism that determines under what conditions the TIPACS rejects heat to the environment. Section 6 addresses other design and operational issues. Section 7 identifies uncertainties, and Section 8 provides conclusions. The appendixes provide the detailed data and models used in the analysis.

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Villemereuil Pierre de

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

Restaurant food cooling practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Laura Green; Ripley, Danny; Blade, Henry; Reimann, Dave; Everstine, Karen; Nicholas, Dave; Egan, Jessica; Koktavy, Nicole; Quilliam, Daniela N

2012-12-01

Improper food cooling practices are a significant cause of foodborne illness, yet little is known about restaurant food cooling practices. This study was conducted to examine food cooling practices in restaurants. Specifically, the study assesses the frequency with which restaurants meet U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommendations aimed at reducing pathogen proliferation during food cooling. Members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Environmental Health Specialists Network collected data on food cooling practices in 420 restaurants. The data collected indicate that many restaurants are not meeting FDA recommendations concerning cooling. Although most restaurant kitchen managers report that they have formal cooling processes (86%) and provide training to food workers on proper cooling (91%), many managers said that they do not have tested and verified cooling processes (39%), do not monitor time or temperature during cooling processes (41%), or do not calibrate thermometers used for monitoring temperatures (15%). Indeed, 86% of managers reported cooling processes that did not incorporate all FDA-recommended components. Additionally, restaurants do not always follow recommendations concerning specific cooling methods, such as refrigerating cooling food at shallow depths, ventilating cooling food, providing open-air space around the tops and sides of cooling food containers, and refraining from stacking cooling food containers on top of each other. Data from this study could be used by food safety programs and the restaurant industry to target training and intervention efforts concerning cooling practices. These efforts should focus on the most frequent poor cooling practices, as identified by this study.

Restaurant Food Cooling Practices†

Science.gov (United States)

BROWN, LAURA GREEN; RIPLEY, DANNY; BLADE, HENRY; REIMANN, DAVE; EVERSTINE, KAREN; NICHOLAS, DAVE; EGAN, JESSICA; KOKTAVY, NICOLE; QUILLIAM, DANIELA N.

2017-01-01

Improper food cooling practices are a significant cause of foodborne illness, yet little is known about restaurant food cooling practices. This study was conducted to examine food cooling practices in restaurants. Specifically, the study assesses the frequency with which restaurants meet U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommendations aimed at reducing pathogen proliferation during food cooling. Members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Environmental Health Specialists Network collected data on food cooling practices in 420 restaurants. The data collected indicate that many restaurants are not meeting FDA recommendations concerning cooling. Although most restaurant kitchen managers report that they have formal cooling processes (86%) and provide training to food workers on proper cooling (91%), many managers said that they do not have tested and verified cooling processes (39%), do not monitor time or temperature during cooling processes (41%), or do not calibrate thermometers used for monitoring temperatures (15%). Indeed, 86% of managers reported cooling processes that did not incorporate all FDA-recommended components. Additionally, restaurants do not always follow recommendations concerning specific cooling methods, such as refrigerating cooling food at shallow depths, ventilating cooling food, providing open-air space around the tops and sides of cooling food containers, and refraining from stacking cooling food containers on top of each other. Data from this study could be used by food safety programs and the restaurant industry to target training and intervention efforts concerning cooling practices. These efforts should focus on the most frequent poor cooling practices, as identified by this study. PMID:23212014

Gas-cooled reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schulten, R.; Trauger, D.B.

1976-01-01

Experience to date with operation of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors has been quite favorable. Despite problems in completion of construction and startup, three high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) units have operated well. The Windscale Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactor (AGR) in the United Kingdom has had an excellent operating history, and initial operation of commercial AGRs shows them to be satisfactory. The latter reactors provide direct experience in scale-up from the Windscale experiment to fullscale commercial units. The Colorado Fort St. Vrain 330-MWe prototype helium-cooled HTGR is now in the approach-to-power phase while the 300-MWe Pebble Bed THTR prototype in the Federal Republic of Germany is scheduled for completion of construction by late 1978. THTR will be the first nuclear power plant which uses a dry cooling tower. Fuel reprocessing and refabrication have been developed in the laboratory and are now entering a pilot-plant scale development. Several commercial HTGR power station orders were placed in the U.S. prior to 1975 with similar plans for stations in the FRG. However, the combined effects of inflation, reduced electric power demand, regulatory uncertainties, and pricing problems led to cancellation of the 12 reactors which were in various stages of planning, design, and licensing

Gauge theories under incorporation of a generalized uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kober, Martin

2010-01-01

There is considered an extension of gauge theories according to the assumption of a generalized uncertainty principle which implies a minimal length scale. A modification of the usual uncertainty principle implies an extended shape of matter field equations like the Dirac equation. If there is postulated invariance of such a generalized field equation under local gauge transformations, the usual covariant derivative containing the gauge potential has to be replaced by a generalized covariant derivative. This leads to a generalized interaction between the matter field and the gauge field as well as to an additional self-interaction of the gauge field. Since the existence of a minimal length scale seems to be a necessary assumption of any consistent quantum theory of gravity, the gauge principle is a constitutive ingredient of the standard model, and even gravity can be described as gauge theory of local translations or Lorentz transformations, the presented extension of gauge theories appears as a very important consideration.

Robustness of ancestral sequence reconstruction to phylogenetic uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanson-Smith, Victor; Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W

2010-09-01

Ancestral sequence reconstruction (ASR) is widely used to formulate and test hypotheses about the sequences, functions, and structures of ancient genes. Ancestral sequences are usually inferred from an alignment of extant sequences using a maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic algorithm, which calculates the most likely ancestral sequence assuming a probabilistic model of sequence evolution and a specific phylogeny--typically the tree with the ML. The true phylogeny is seldom known with certainty, however. ML methods ignore this uncertainty, whereas Bayesian methods incorporate it by integrating the likelihood of each ancestral state over a distribution of possible trees. It is not known whether Bayesian approaches to phylogenetic uncertainty improve the accuracy of inferred ancestral sequences. Here, we use simulation-based experiments under both simplified and empirically derived conditions to compare the accuracy of ASR carried out using ML and Bayesian approaches. We show that incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty by integrating over topologies very rarely changes the inferred ancestral state and does not improve the accuracy of the reconstructed ancestral sequence. Ancestral state reconstructions are robust to uncertainty about the underlying tree because the conditions that produce phylogenetic uncertainty also make the ancestral state identical across plausible trees; conversely, the conditions under which different phylogenies yield different inferred ancestral states produce little or no ambiguity about the true phylogeny. Our results suggest that ML can produce accurate ASRs, even in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty. Using Bayesian integration to incorporate this uncertainty is neither necessary nor beneficial.

Decay heat uncertainty quantification of MYRRHA

OpenAIRE

Fiorito Luca; Buss Oliver; Hoefer Axel; Stankovskiy Alexey; Eynde Gert Van den

2017-01-01

MYRRHA is a lead-bismuth cooled MOX-fueled accelerator driven system (ADS) currently in the design phase at SCK·CEN in Belgium. The correct evaluation of the decay heat and of its uncertainty level is very important for the safety demonstration of the reactor. In the first part of this work we assessed the decay heat released by the MYRRHA core using the ALEPH-2 burnup code. The second part of the study focused on the nuclear data uncertainty and covariance propagation to the MYRRHA decay hea...

Complete Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis of LR-0 Reactor Experiments with MSRE FLiBe Salt and Perform Comparison with Molten Salt Cooled and Molten Salt Fueled Reactor Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, Nicholas R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Powers, Jeffrey J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mueller, Don [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Patton, Bruce W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2016-12-01

In September 2016, reactor physics measurements were conducted at Research Centre Rez (RC Rez) using the FLiBe (2 ⁷LiF + BeF₂) salt from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) in the LR-0 low power nuclear reactor. These experiments were intended to inform on neutron spectral effects and nuclear data uncertainties for advanced reactor systems using FLiBe salt in a thermal neutron energy spectrum. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with RC Rez, performed sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analyses of these experiments as part of the ongoing collaboration between the United States and the Czech Republic on civilian nuclear energy research and development. The objectives of these analyses were (1) to identify potential sources of bias in fluoride salt-cooled and salt-fueled reactor simulations resulting from cross section uncertainties, and (2) to produce the sensitivity of neutron multiplication to cross section data on an energy-dependent basis for specific nuclides. This report provides a final report on the S/U analyses of critical experiments at the LR-0 Reactor relevant to fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor (FHR) and liquid-fueled molten salt reactor (MSR) concepts. In the future, these S/U analyses could be used to inform the design of additional FLiBe-based experiments using the salt from MSRE. The key finding of this work is that, for both solid and liquid fueled fluoride salt reactors, radiative capture in ⁷Li is the most significant contributor to potential bias in neutronics calculations within the FLiBe salt.

Cooling device for reactor container

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arai, Kenji.

1996-01-01

Upon assembling a static container cooling system to an emergency reactor core cooling system using dynamic pumps in a power plant, the present invention provides a cooling device of lowered center of gravity and having a good cooling effect by lowering the position of a cooling water pool of the static container cooling system. Namely, the emergency reactor core cooling system injects water to the inside of a pressure vessel using emergency cooling water stored in a suppression pool as at least one water source upon loss of reactor coolant accident. In addition, a cooling water pool incorporating a heat exchanger is disposed at the circumference of the suppression pool at the outside of the container. A dry well and the heat exchanger are connected by way of steam supply pipes, and the heat exchanger is connected with the suppression pool by way of a gas exhaustion pipe and a condensate returning pipeline. With such a constitution, the position of the heat exchanger is made higher than an ordinary water level of the suppression pool. As a result, the emergency cooling water of the suppression pool water is injected to the pressure vessel by the operation of the reactor cooling pumps upon loss of coolant accident to cool the reactor core. (I.S.)

MEASURING THE EVOLUTIONARY RATE OF COOLING OF ZZ Ceti

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mukadam, Anjum S.; Fraser, Oliver; Riecken, T. S.; Kronberg, M. E. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Bischoff-Kim, Agnes [Georgia College and State University, Milledgeville, GA 31061 (United States); Corsico, A. H. [Facultad de Ciencias Astronomicas y Geofisicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (Argentina); Montgomery, M. H.; Winget, D. E.; Hermes, J. J.; Winget, K. I.; Falcon, Ross E.; Reaves, D. [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78759 (United States); Kepler, S. O.; Romero, A. D. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre 91501-970, RS (Brazil); Chandler, D. W. [Meyer Observatory, Central Texas Astronomical Society, 3409 Whispering Oaks, Temple, TX 76504 (United States); Kuehne, J. W. [McDonald Observatory, Fort Davis, TX 79734 (United States); Sullivan, D. J. [Victoria University of Wellington, P.O. Box 600, Wellington (New Zealand); Von Hippel, T. [Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 South Clyde Morris Boulevard, Daytona Beach, FL 32114 (United States); Mullally, F. [SETI Institute, NASA Ames Research Center, MS 244-30, Moffet Field, CA 94035 (United States); Shipman, H. [Delaware Asteroseismic Research Center, Mt. Cuba Observatory, Greenville, DE 19807 (United States); and others

2013-07-01

We have finally measured the evolutionary rate of cooling of the pulsating hydrogen atmosphere (DA) white dwarf ZZ Ceti (Ross 548), as reflected by the drift rate of the 213.13260694 s period. Using 41 yr of time-series photometry from 1970 November to 2012 January, we determine the rate of change of this period with time to be dP/dt = (5.2 {+-} 1.4) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1} employing the O - C method and (5.45 {+-} 0.79) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1} using a direct nonlinear least squares fit to the entire lightcurve. We adopt the dP/dt obtained from the nonlinear least squares program as our final determination, but augment the corresponding uncertainty to a more realistic value, ultimately arriving at the measurement of dP/dt = (5.5 {+-} 1.0) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1}. After correcting for proper motion, the evolutionary rate of cooling of ZZ Ceti is computed to be (3.3 {+-} 1.1) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1}. This value is consistent within uncertainties with the measurement of (4.19 {+-} 0.73) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1} for another similar pulsating DA white dwarf, G 117-B15A. Measuring the cooling rate of ZZ Ceti helps us refine our stellar structure and evolutionary models, as cooling depends mainly on the core composition and stellar mass. Calibrating white dwarf cooling curves with this measurement will reduce the theoretical uncertainties involved in white dwarf cosmochronometry. Should the 213.13 s period be trapped in the hydrogen envelope, then our determination of its drift rate compared to the expected evolutionary rate suggests an additional source of stellar cooling. Attributing the excess cooling to the emission of axions imposes a constraint on the mass of the hypothetical axion particle.

Uncertainty analysis methods for estimation of reliability of passive system of VHTR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, S.J.

2012-01-01

An estimation of reliability of passive system for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) is under development in Korea. The essential approach of this estimation is to measure the uncertainty of the system performance under a specific accident condition. The uncertainty propagation approach according to the simulation of phenomenological models (computer codes) is adopted as a typical method to estimate the uncertainty for this purpose. This presentation introduced the uncertainty propagation and discussed the related issues focusing on the propagation object and its surrogates. To achieve a sufficient level of depth of uncertainty results, the applicability of the propagation should be carefully reviewed. For an example study, Latin-hypercube sampling (LHS) method as a direct propagation was tested for a specific accident sequence of VHTR. The reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) developed by KAERI was considered for this example study. This is an air-cooled type passive system that has no active components for its operation. The accident sequence is a low pressure conduction cooling (LPCC) accident that is considered as a design basis accident for the safety design of VHTR. This sequence is due to a large failure of the pressure boundary of the reactor system such as a guillotine break of coolant pipe lines. The presentation discussed the obtained insights (benefit and weakness) to apply an estimation of reliability of passive system

Cool Sportswear

Science.gov (United States)

1982-01-01

New athletic wear design based on the circulating liquid cooling system used in the astronaut's space suits, allows athletes to perform more strenuous activity without becoming overheated. Techni-Clothes gear incorporates packets containing a heat-absorbing gel that slips into an insulated pocket of the athletic garment and is positioned near parts of the body where heat transfer is most efficient. A gel packet is good for about one hour. Easily replaced from a supply of spares in an insulated container worn on the belt. The products, targeted primarily for runners and joggers and any other athlete whose performance may be affected by hot weather, include cooling headbands, wrist bands and running shorts with gel-pack pockets.

Decay heat uncertainty quantification of MYRRHA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fiorito Luca

2017-01-01

Full Text Available MYRRHA is a lead-bismuth cooled MOX-fueled accelerator driven system (ADS currently in the design phase at SCK·CEN in Belgium. The correct evaluation of the decay heat and of its uncertainty level is very important for the safety demonstration of the reactor. In the first part of this work we assessed the decay heat released by the MYRRHA core using the ALEPH-2 burnup code. The second part of the study focused on the nuclear data uncertainty and covariance propagation to the MYRRHA decay heat. Radioactive decay data, independent fission yield and cross section uncertainties/covariances were propagated using two nuclear data sampling codes, namely NUDUNA and SANDY. According to the results, 238U cross sections and fission yield data are the largest contributors to the MYRRHA decay heat uncertainty. The calculated uncertainty values are deemed acceptable from the safety point of view as they are well within the available regulatory limits.

Background and Qualification of Uncertainty Methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Auria, F.; Petruzzi, A.

2008-01-01

The evaluation of uncertainty constitutes the necessary supplement of Best Estimate calculations performed to understand accident scenarios in water cooled nuclear reactors. The needs come from the imperfection of computational tools on the one side and from the interest in using such tool to get more precise evaluation of safety margins. The paper reviews the salient features of two independent approaches for estimating uncertainties associated with predictions of complex system codes. Namely the propagation of code input error and the propagation of the calculation output error constitute the key-words for identifying the methods of current interest for industrial applications. Throughout the developed methods, uncertainty bands can be derived (both upper and lower) for any desired quantity of the transient of interest. For the second case, the uncertainty method is coupled with the thermal-hydraulic code to get the Code with capability of Internal Assessment of Uncertainty, whose features are discussed in more detail.

Incorporation of velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and particle surface friction into kinetic theory for modeling granular flow cooling.

Science.gov (United States)

Duan, Yifei; Feng, Zhi-Gang

2017-12-01

Kinetic theory (KT) has been successfully used to model rapid granular flows in which particle interactions are frictionless and near elastic. However, it fails when particle interactions become frictional and inelastic. For example, the KT is not able to accurately predict the free cooling process of a vibrated granular medium that consists of inelastic frictional particles under microgravity. The main reason that the classical KT fails to model these flows is due to its inability to account for the particle surface friction and its inelastic behavior, which are the two most important factors that need be considered in modeling collisional granular flows. In this study, we have modified the KT model that is able to incorporate these two factors. The inelasticity of a particle is considered by establishing a velocity-dependent expression for the restitution coefficient based on many experimental studies found in the literature, and the particle friction effect is included by using a tangential restitution coefficient that is related to the particle friction coefficient. Theoretical predictions of the free cooling process by the classical KT and the improved KT are compared with the experimental results from a study conducted on an airplane undergoing parabolic flights without the influence of gravity [Y. Grasselli, G. Bossis, and G. Goutallier, Europhys. Lett. 86, 60007 (2009)10.1209/0295-5075/86/60007]. Our results show that both the velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and the particle surface friction are important in predicting the free cooling process of granular flows; the modified KT model that integrates these two factors is able to improve the simulation results and leads to better agreement with the experimental results.

Small break LOCA RELAP5/MOD3 uncertainty quantification: Bias and uncertainty evaluation for important phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, M.G.; Ghan, L.S.; Vogl, J.

1991-01-01

The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) revised the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) licensing rule to allow the use of Best Estimate (BE) computer codes, provided the uncertainty of the calculations are quantified and used in the licensing and regulation process. The NRC developed a generic methodology called Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) to evaluate BE code uncertainties. The CSAU methodology was demonstrated with a specific application to a pressurized water reactor (PWR), experiencing a postulated large break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA). The current work is part of an effort to adapt and demonstrate the CSAU methodology to a small break (SB) LOCA in a PWR of B and W design using RELAP5/MOD3 as the simulation tool. The subject of this paper is the Assessment and Ranging of Parameters (Element 2 of the CSAU methodology), which determines the contribution to uncertainty of specific models in the code

Development of a decision support tool for seasonal water supply management incorporating system uncertainties and operational constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Asefa, T.

2017-12-01

A real-time decision support tool (DST) for water supply system would consider system uncertainties, e.g., uncertain streamflow and demand, as well as operational constraints and infrastructure outage (e.g., pump station shutdown, an offline reservoir due to maintenance). Such DST is often used by water managers for resource allocation and delivery for customers. Although most seasonal DST used by water managers recognize those system uncertainties and operational constraints, most use only historical information or assume deterministic outlook of water supply systems. This study presents a seasonal DST that incorporates rainfall/streamflow uncertainties, seasonal demand outlook and system operational constraints. Large scale climate-information is captured through a rainfall simulator driven by a Bayesian non-homogeneous Markov Chain Monte Carlo model that allows non-stationary transition probabilities contingent on Nino 3.4 index. An ad-hoc seasonal demand forecasting model considers weather conditions explicitly and socio-economic factors implicitly. Latin Hypercube sampling is employed to effectively sample probability density functions of flow and demand. Seasonal system operation is modelled as a mixed-integer optimization problem that aims at minimizing operational costs. It embeds the flexibility of modifying operational rules at different components, e.g., surface water treatment plants, desalination facilities, and groundwater pumping stations. The proposed framework is illustrated at a wholesale water supplier in Southeastern United States, Tampa Bay Water. The use of the tool is demonstrated in proving operational guidance in a typical drawdown and refill cycle of a regional reservoir. The DST provided: 1) probabilistic outlook of reservoir storage and chance of a successful refill by the end of rainy season; 2) operational expectations for large infrastructures (e.g., high service pumps and booster stations) throughout the season. Other potential use

Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

2009-01-01

Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur

2013-01-01

This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies...

Incorporating uncertainty regarding applicability of evidence from meta-analyses into clinical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kriston, Levente; Meister, Ramona

2014-03-01

Judging applicability (relevance) of meta-analytical findings to particular clinical decision-making situations remains challenging. We aimed to describe an evidence synthesis method that accounts for possible uncertainty regarding applicability of the evidence. We conceptualized uncertainty regarding applicability of the meta-analytical estimates to a decision-making situation as the result of uncertainty regarding applicability of the findings of the trials that were included in the meta-analysis. This trial-level applicability uncertainty can be directly assessed by the decision maker and allows for the definition of trial inclusion probabilities, which can be used to perform a probabilistic meta-analysis with unequal probability resampling of trials (adaptive meta-analysis). A case study with several fictitious decision-making scenarios was performed to demonstrate the method in practice. We present options to elicit trial inclusion probabilities and perform the calculations. The result of an adaptive meta-analysis is a frequency distribution of the estimated parameters from traditional meta-analysis that provides individually tailored information according to the specific needs and uncertainty of the decision maker. The proposed method offers a direct and formalized combination of research evidence with individual clinical expertise and may aid clinicians in specific decision-making situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty Analysis of the Temperature–Resistance Relationship of Temperature Sensing Fabric

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Dawood Husain

2016-11-01

Full Text Available This paper reports the uncertainty analysis of the temperature–resistance (TR data of the newly developed temperature sensing fabric (TSF, which is a double-layer knitted structure fabricated on an electronic flat-bed knitting machine, made of polyester as a basal yarn, and embedded with fine metallic wire as sensing element. The measurement principle of the TSF is identical to temperature resistance detector (RTD; that is, change in resistance due to change in temperature. The regression uncertainty (uncertainty within repeats and repeatability uncertainty (uncertainty among repeats were estimated by analysing more than 300 TR experimental repeats of 50 TSF samples. The experiments were performed under dynamic heating and cooling environments on a purpose-built test rig within the temperature range of 20–50 °C. The continuous experimental data was recorded through LabVIEW-based graphical user interface. The result showed that temperature and resistance values were not only repeatable but reproducible, with only minor variations. The regression uncertainty was found to be less than ±0.3 °C; the TSF sample made of Ni and W wires showed regression uncertainty of <±0.13 °C in comparison to Cu-based TSF samples (>±0.18 °C. The cooling TR data showed considerably reduced values (±0.07 °C of uncertainty in comparison with the heating TR data (±0.24 °C. The repeatability uncertainty was found to be less than ±0.5 °C. By increasing the number of samples and repeats, the uncertainties may be reduced further. The TSF could be used for continuous measurement of the temperature profile on the surface of the human body.

BEPU methods and combining of uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prosek, A.; Mavko, B.

2004-01-01

After approval of the revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling system (ECCS) performance in 1988 there has been significant interest in the development of codes and methodologies for best-estimate loss-of-coolant accident (LOCAs) analyses. The Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation method was developed and demonstrated for large-break (LB) LOCA in a pressurized water reactor. Later several new best estimate plus uncertainty methods (BEPUs) were developed in the world. The purpose of the paper is to identify and compare the statistical approaches of BEPU methods and present their important plant and licensing applications. The study showed that uncertainty analysis with random sampling of input parameters and the use of order statistics for desired tolerance limits of output parameters is today commonly accepted approach. The existing BEPU methods seems mature enough while the future research may be focused on the codes with internal assessment of uncertainty. (author)

System design study of small lead-bismuth cooled reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chikazawa, Yoshitaka; Hori, Toru; Konomura, Mamoru

2003-07-01

In phase II of the feasibility study of JNC, we will make a concept of a dispersion power source reactor with various requirements, such as economical competitiveness and safety. In the study of a small lead-bismuth cooled reactor, a concept whose features are long life core, inherent safety, natural convection of cooling system and steam generators in the reactor vessel has been designed since 2000. The investigations which have been done in 2002 are shown as follows; Safety analysis of UTOP considering uncertainty of reactivity. Possibility of reduction of number of control rods. Estimation of construction cost. Transient analyses of UTOP have been done in considering uncertainty of reactivity in order to show the inherent safety in the probabilistic method. And the inherent safety in UTOP is realized under the condition of considering uncertainty. Transient analyses of UTOP with various numbers of control rods have been done and it is suggested that there is possibility of reduction of the number of control rods considering accident managements. The method of cost estimation is a little modified. The cost of reactor vessel is estimated from that of medium sized lead-bismuth cooled reactor and the estimation of a purity control system is by coolant volume flow rate. The construction cost is estimated 850,000yen/kWe. (author)

Nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty for the Canadian supercritical water-cooled reactor II: Full core analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langton, S.E.; Buijs, A.; Pencer, J.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling sensitivity. • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. • Isotopes of Zr make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. - Abstract: Uncertainties in nuclear data are a fundamental source of uncertainty in reactor physics calculations. To determine their contribution to uncertainties in calculated reactor physics parameters, a nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty study is performed on the Canadian supercritical water reactor (SCWR) concept. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to the neutron multiplication factor k eff are 6.31 mk for the SCWR at the beginning of cycle (BOC) and 6.99 mk at the end of cycle (EOC). Both of these uncertainties have a statistical uncertainty of 0.02 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to Coolant Void Reactivity (CVR) are 1.0 mk and 0.9 mk for BOC and EOC, respectively, both with statistical uncertainties of 0.1 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to other reactivity parameters range from as low as 3% of to as high as ten times the values of the reactivity coefficients. The largest contributors to the uncertainties in the reactor physics parameters are Pu-239, Th-232, H-2, and isotopes of zirconium

Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shull, A.H.

1997-01-01

An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

Science.gov (United States)

Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

2013-04-01

The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

Robust framework for PET image reconstruction incorporating system and measurement uncertainties.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huafeng Liu

Full Text Available In Positron Emission Tomography (PET, an optimal estimate of the radioactivity concentration is obtained from the measured emission data under certain criteria. So far, all the well-known statistical reconstruction algorithms require exactly known system probability matrix a priori, and the quality of such system model largely determines the quality of the reconstructed images. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for PET image reconstruction for the real world case where the PET system model is subject to uncertainties. The method counts PET reconstruction as a regularization problem and the image estimation is achieved by means of an uncertainty weighted least squares framework. The performance of our work is evaluated with the Shepp-Logan simulated and real phantom data, which demonstrates significant improvements in image quality over the least squares reconstruction efforts.

Advancing Uncertainty: Untangling and Discerning Related Concepts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Janice Penrod

2002-12-01

Full Text Available Methods of advancing concepts within the qualitative paradigm have been developed and articulated. In this section, I describe methodological perspectives of a project designed to advance the concept of uncertainty using multiple qualitative methods. Through a series of earlier studies, the concept of uncertainty arose repeatedly in varied contexts, working its way into prominence, and warranting further investigation. Processes of advanced concept analysis were used to initiate the formal investigation into the meaning of the concept. Through concept analysis, the concept was deconstructed to identify conceptual components and gaps in understanding. Using this skeletal framework of the concept identified through concept analysis, subsequent studies were carried out to add ‘flesh’ to the concept. First, a concept refinement using the literature as data was completed. Findings revealed that the current state of the concept of uncertainty failed to incorporate what was known of the lived experience. Therefore, using interview techniques as the primary data source, a phenomenological study of uncertainty among caregivers was conducted. Incorporating the findings of the phenomenology, the skeletal framework of the concept was further fleshed out using techniques of concept correction to produce a more mature conceptualization of uncertainty. In this section, I describe the flow of this qualitative project investigating the concept of uncertainty, with special emphasis on a particular threat to validity (called conceptual tunnel vision that was identified and addressed during the phases of concept correction. Though in this article I employ a study of uncertainty for illustration, limited substantive findings regarding uncertainty are presented to retain a clear focus on the methodological issues.

Feedback Cooling of a Single Neutral Atom

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koch, Markus; Sames, Christian; Kubanek, Alexander; Apel, Matthias; Balbach, Maximilian; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Pinkse, Pepijn Willemszoon Harry; Rempe, Gerhard

2010-01-01

We demonstrate feedback cooling of the motion of a single rubidium atom trapped in a high-finesse optical resonator to a temperature of about 160  μK. Time-dependent transmission and intensity-correlation measurements prove the reduction of the atomic position uncertainty. The feedback increases the

Integrated cooling system for the Mirror Fusion Test Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, B.; Chang, Y.

1979-01-01

The MFTF components that require water cooling include the neutral beam dumps, ion dumps, plasma dumps, baffle plates, magnet liners, gas boxes, streaming guns, and the neutral beam injectors. A total heat load of nearly 500 MW for 0.5 s dissipates over 4-min intervals. A steady-flow, closed-loop system is utilized. The design of the cooling system assumes that all components require cooling simultaneously. The cooling system contains process instrumentation for loop control. Alarms and safety interlocks are incorporated for the safe operation of the system

Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veneziano, D.

1975-01-01

What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models

Material Issues of Blanket Systems for Fusion Reactors - Compatibility with Cooling Water -

Science.gov (United States)

Miwa, Yukio; Tsukada, Takashi; Jitsukawa, Shiro

Environmental assisted cracking (EAC) is one of the material issues for the reactor core components of light water power reactors(LWRs). Much experience and knowledge have been obtained about the EAC in the LWR field. They will be useful to prevent the EAC of water-cooled blanket systems of fusion reactors. For the austenitic stainless steels and the reduced-activation ferritic/martensitic steels, they clarifies that the EAC in a water-cooled blanket does not seem to be acritical issue. However, some uncertainties about influences on water temperatures, water chemistries and stress conditions may affect on the EAC. Considerations and further investigations elucidating the uncertainties are discussed.

Incorporation of cooling-induced crystallisation into a 2-dimensional axisymmetric conduit heat flow model

Science.gov (United States)

Heptinstall, D. A.; Neuberg, J. W.; Bouvet de Maisonneuve, C.; Collinson, A.; Taisne, B.; Morgan, D. J.

2015-12-01

Heat flow models can bring new insights into the thermal and rheological evolution of volcanic systems. We shall investigate the thermal processes and timescales in a crystallizing, static magma column, with a heat flow model of Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. The latent heat of crystallization is initially computed with MELTS, as a function of pressure and temperature for an andesitic melt (SHV groundmass starting composition). Three fractional crystallization simulations are performed; two with initial pressures of 34MPa (runs 1 & 2) and one of 25MPa (run 3). Decompression rate was varied between 0.1MPa/°C (runs 1 & 3) and 0.2MPa/°C (run 2). Natural and experimental matrix glass compositions are accurately reproduced by all MELTS runs. The cumulative latent heat released for runs 1, 2 and 3 differs by less than 9% (8.69e5 J/kg*K, 9.32e5 J/kg*K, and 9.49e5 J/kg*K respectively). The 2D axisymmetric conductive cooling simulations consider a 30m-diameter conduit that extends from the surface to a depth of 1500m (34MPa). The temporal evolution of temperature is closely tracked at depths of 10m, 750m and 1400m in the center of the conduit, at the conduit walls, and 20m from the walls into the host rock. Following initial cooling by 7-15oC at 10m depth inside the conduit, the magma temperature rebounds through latent heat release by 32-35oC over 85-123 days to a maximum temperature of 1002-1005oC. At 10 m depth, it takes 4.1-9.2 years for the magma column to cool over 108-130oC and crystallize to 75wt%, at which point it cannot be easily remobilized. It takes 11-31.5 years to reach the same crystallinity at 750-1400m depth. We find a wide range in cooling timescales, particularly at depths of 750m or greater, attributed to the initial run pressure and dominant latent heat producing crystallizing phases (Quartz), where run 1 cools fastest and run 3 cools slowest. Surface cooling by comparison has the strongest influence on the upper tens of meters in all

Incorporating stand level risk management options into forest decision support systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyle Eyvindson

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Aim of study: To examine methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty to stand level forest decisions. Area of study: A case study examines a small forest holding from Jönköping, Sweden. Material and methods: We incorporate empirically estimated uncertainty into the simulation through a Monte Carlo approach when simulating the forest stands for the next 100 years. For the iterations of the Monte Carlo approach, errors were incorporated into the input data which was simulated according to the Heureka decision support system. Both the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk of the net present value are evaluated for each simulated stand. Main results: Visual representation of the errors can be used to highlight which decision would be most beneficial dependent on the decision maker’s opinion of the forest inventory results. At a stand level, risk preferences can be rather easily incorporated into the current forest decision support software. Research highlights: Forest management operates under uncertainty and risk. Methods are available to describe this risk in an understandable fashion for the decision maker.

Quantifying uncertainty due to internal variability using high-resolution regional climate model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Gutmann, E. D.; Ikeda, K.; Deser, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Arnold, J. R.

2015-12-01

The uncertainty in future climate predictions is as large or larger than the mean climate change signal. As such, any predictions of future climate need to incorporate and quantify the sources of this uncertainty. One of the largest sources comes from the internal, chaotic, variability within the climate system itself. This variability has been approximated using the 30 ensemble members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble. Here we examine the wet and dry end members of this ensemble for cool-season precipitation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains with a set of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate the periods 1990-2000, 2025-2035, and 2070-2080 on a 4km grid. These simulations show that the broad patterns of change depicted in CESM are inherited by the high-resolution simulations; however, the differences in the height and location of the mountains in the WRF simulation, relative to the CESM simulation, means that the location and magnitude of the precipitation changes are very different. We further show that high-resolution simulations with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) predict a similar spatial pattern in the change signal as WRF for these ensemble members. We then use ICAR to examine the rest of the CESM Large Ensemble as well as the uncertainty in the regional climate model due to the choice of physics parameterizations.

Theory of semiconductor laser cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Rupper, Greg

Recently laser cooling of semiconductors has received renewed attention, with the hope that a semiconductor cooler might be able to achieve cryogenic temperatures. In order to study semiconductor laser cooling at cryogenic temperatures, it is crucial that the theory include both the effects of excitons and the electron-hole plasma. In this dissertation, I present a theoretical analysis of laser cooling of bulk GaAs based on a microscopic many-particle theory of absorption and luminescence of a partially ionized electron-hole plasma. This theory has been analyzed from a temperature 10K to 500K. It is shown that at high temperatures (above 300K), cooling can be modeled using older models with a few parameter changes. Below 200K, band filling effects dominate over Auger recombination. Below 30K excitonic effects are essential for laser cooling. In all cases, excitonic effects make cooling easier then predicted by a free carrier model. The initial cooling model is based on the assumption of a homogeneous undoped semiconductor. This model has been systematically modified to include effects that are present in real laser cooling experiments. The following modifications have been performed. (1) Propagation and polariton effects have been included. (2) The effect of p-doping has been included. (n-doping can be modeled in a similar fashion.) (3) In experiments, a passivation layer is required to minimize non-radiative recombination. The passivation results in a npn heterostructure. The effect of the npn heterostructure on cooling has been analyzed. (4) The effect of a Gaussian pump beam was analyzed and (5) Some of the parameters in the cooling model have a large uncertainty. The effect of modifying these parameters has been analyzed. Most of the extensions to the original theory have only had a modest effect on the overall results. However we find that the current passivation technique may not be sufficient to allow cooling. The passivation technique currently used appears

What is the uncertainty principle of non-relativistic quantum mechanics?

Science.gov (United States)

Riggs, Peter J.

2018-05-01

After more than ninety years of discussions over the uncertainty principle, there is still no universal agreement on what the principle states. The Robertson uncertainty relation (incorporating standard deviations) is given as the mathematical expression of the principle in most quantum mechanics textbooks. However, the uncertainty principle is not merely a statement of what any of the several uncertainty relations affirm. It is suggested that a better approach would be to present the uncertainty principle as a statement about the probability distributions of incompatible variables and the resulting restrictions on quantum states.

HTGR reactor physics, thermal-hydraulics and depletion uncertainty analysis: a proposed IAEA coordinated research project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tyobeka, Bismark; Reitsma, Frederik; Ivanov, Kostadin

2011-01-01

The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The predictive capability of coupled neutronics/thermal hydraulics and depletion simulations for reactor design and safety analysis can be assessed with sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis methods. In order to benefit from recent advances in modeling and simulation and the availability of new covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) extensive sensitivity and uncertainty studies are needed for quantification of the impact of different sources of uncertainties on the design and safety parameters of HTGRs. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In February 2009, the Technical Working Group on Gas-Cooled Reactors recommended that the proposed IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling be implemented. In the paper the current status and plan are presented. The CRP will also benefit from interactions with the currently ongoing OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) UAM benchmark activity by taking into consideration the peculiarities of HTGR designs and simulation requirements. (author)

Incorporation of cooling-induced crystallization into a 2-dimensional axisymmetric conduit heat flow model

Science.gov (United States)

Heptinstall, David; Bouvet de Maisonneuve, Caroline; Neuberg, Jurgen; Taisne, Benoit; Collinson, Amy

2016-04-01

Heat flow models can bring new insights into the thermal and rheological evolution of volcanic 3 systems. We shall investigate the thermal processes and timescales in a crystallizing, static 4 magma column, with a heat flow model of Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. The latent heat of crystallization is initially computed with MELTS, as a function of pressure and temperature for an andesitic melt (SHV groundmass starting composition). Three fractional crystallization simulations are performed; two with initial pressures of 34MPa (runs 1 & 2) and one of 25MPa (run 3). Decompression rate was varied between 0.1MPa/° C (runs 1 & 3) and 0.2MPa/° C (run 2). Natural and experimental matrix glass compositions are accurately reproduced by all MELTS runs. The cumulative latent heat released for runs 1, 2 and 3 differs by less than 9% (8.69E5 J/kg*K, 9.32E5 J/kg*K, and 9.49E5 J/kg*K respectively). The 2D axisymmetric conductive cooling simulations consider a 30m-diameter conduit that extends from the surface to a depth of 1500m (34MPa). The temporal evolution of temperature is closely tracked at depths of 10m, 750m and 1400m in the centre of the conduit, at the conduit walls, and 20m from the walls into the host rock. Following initial cooling by 7-15oC at 10m depth inside the conduit, the magma temperature rebounds through latent heat release by 32-35oC over 85-123 days to a maximum temperature of 1002-1005oC. At 10m depth, it takes 4.1-9.2 years for the magma column to cool by 108-131oC and crystallize to 75wt%, at which point it cannot be easily remobilized. It takes 11-31.5 years to reach the same crystallinity at 750-1400m depth. We find a wide range in cooling timescales, particularly at depths of 750m or greater, attributed to the initial run pressure and the dominant latent heat producing crystallizing phase, Albite-rich Plagioclase Feldspar. Run 1 is shown to cool fastest and run 3 cool the slowest, with surface emissivity having the strongest cooling

Upper limit for Poisson variable incorporating systematic uncertainties by Bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Yongsheng

2007-01-01

To calculate the upper limit for the Poisson observable at given confidence level with inclusion of systematic uncertainties in background expectation and signal efficiency, formulations have been established along the line of Bayesian approach. A FORTRAN program, BPULE, has been developed to implement the upper limit calculation

Nuclear data uncertainties for local power densities in the Martin-Hoogenboom benchmark

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van der Marck, S.C.; Rochman, D.A.

2013-01-01

The recently developed method of fast Total Monte Carlo to propagate nuclear data uncertainties was applied to the Martin-Hoogenboom benchmark. This Martin- Hoogenboom benchmark prescribes that one calculates local pin powers (of light water cooled reactor) with a statistical uncertainty lower than 1% everywhere. Here we report, for the first time, an estimate of the nuclear data uncertainties for these local pin powers. For each of the more than 6 million local power tallies, the uncertainty due to nuclear data uncertainties was calculated, based on random variation of data for 235 U, 238 U, 239 Pu and H in H 2 O thermal scattering. In the center of the core region, the nuclear data uncertainty is 0.9%. Towards the edges of the core, this uncertainty increases to roughly 3%. The nuclear data uncertainties have been shown to be larger than the statistical uncertainties that the benchmark prescribes

Heating up the gas cooling market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watt, G.

2001-01-01

Gas cooling is an exciting technology with a potentially bright future. It comprises the production of cooling (and heating) in buildings and industry, by substituting environmentally-friendlier natural gas or LPG over predominantly coal-fired electricity in air conditioning equipment. There are currently four established technologies using gas to provide cooling energy or conditioned air. These are: absorption, both direct gas-fired and utilising hot water or steam; gas engine driven vapour compression (GED); cogeneration, with absorption cooling driven by recovered heat; and desiccant systems. The emergence of gas cooling technologies has been, and remains, one of evolution rather than revolution. However, further development of the technology has had a revolutionary effect on the performance, reliability and consumer acceptability of gas cooling products. Developments from world-renowned manufacturers such as York, Hitachi, Robur and Thermax have produced a range of absorption equipment variously offering: the use of 100 percent environmentally-friendly refrigerants, with zero global warming potential; the ideal utilisation of waste heat from cogeneration systems; a reduction in electrical distribution and stand-by generation capacity; long product life expectancy; far less noise and vibration; performance efficiency maintained down to about 20 percent of load capacity; and highly automated and low-cost maintenance. It is expected that hybrid systems, that is a mixture of gas and electric cooling technologies, will dominate the future market, reflecting the uncertainty in the electricity market and the prospects of stable future gas prices

Cooling Grapple System for FMEF hot cell

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semmens, L.S.; Frandsen, G.B.; Tome, R.

1983-01-01

A Cooling Grapple System was designed and built to handle fuel assemblies within the FMEF hot cell. The variety of functions for which it is designed makes it unique from grapples presently in use. The Cooling Grapple can positively grip and transport assemblies vertically, retrieve assemblies from molten sodium where six inches of grapple tip is submerged, cool 7 kw assemblies in argon, and service an in-cell area of 372 m 2 (4000 ft 2 ). Novel and improved operating and maintenance features were incorporated in the design including a shear pin and mechanical catcher system to prevent overloading the grapple while allowing additional reaction time for crane shutdown

Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: an interim report

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Alexander

2004-01-01

This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Surveys Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and

Investigation and incorporation of water inflow uncertainties through stochastic modelling in a combined optimisation methodology for water allocation in Alfeios River (Greece)

Science.gov (United States)

Bekri, Eleni; Yannopoulos, Panayotis; Disse, Markus

2014-05-01

The Alfeios River plays a vital role for Western Peloponnisos in Greece from natural, ecological, social and economic aspect. The main river and its six tributaries, forming the longest watercourse and the highest streamflow rate of Peloponnisose, represent a significant source of water supply for the region, aiming at delivering and satisfying the expected demands from a variety of water users, including irrigation, drinking water supply, hydropower production and recreation. In the previous EGU General Assembly, a fuzzy-boundary-interval linear programming methodology, based on Li et al. (2010) and Bekri et al. (2012), has been presented for optimal water allocation under uncertain and vague system conditions in the Alfeios River Basin. Uncertainties associated with the benefit and cost coefficient in the objective function of the main water uses (hydropower production and irrigation) were expressed as probability distributions and fuzzy boundary intervals derived by associated α-cut levels. The uncertainty of the monthly water inflows was not incorporated in the previous initial application and the analysis of all other sources of uncertainty has been applied to two extreme hydrologic years represented by a selected wet and dry year. To manage and operate the river system, decision makers should be able to analyze and evaluate the impact of various hydrologic scenarios. In the present work, the critical uncertain parameter of water inflows is analyzed and its incorporation as an additional type of uncertainty in the suggested methodology is investigated, in order to enable the assessment of optimal water allocation for hydrologic and socio-economic scenarios based both on historical data and projected climate change conditions. For this purpose, stochastic simulation analysis for a part of the Alfeios river system is undertaken, testing various stochastic models from simple stationary ones (AR and ARMA), Thomas-Fiering, ARIMA as well as more sophisticated and

Electron Cooling of RHIC

CERN Document Server

Ben-Zvi, Ilan; Barton, Donald; Beavis, Dana; Blaskiewicz, Michael; Bluem, Hans; Brennan, Joseph M; Bruhwiler, David L; Burger, Al; Burov, Alexey; Burrill, Andrew; Calaga, Rama; Cameron, Peter; Chang, Xiangyun; Cole, Michael; Connolly, Roger; Delayen, Jean R; Derbenev, Yaroslav S; Eidelman, Yury I; Favale, Anthony; Fedotov, Alexei V; Fischer, Wolfram; Funk, L W; Gassner, David M; Hahn, Harald; Harrison, Michael; Hershcovitch, Ady; Holmes, Douglas; Hseuh Hsiao Chaun; Johnson, Peter; Kayran, Dmitry; Kewisch, Jorg; Kneisel, Peter; Koop, Ivan; Lambiase, Robert; Litvinenko, Vladimir N; MacKay, William W; Mahler, George; Malitsky, Nikolay; McIntyre, Gary; Meng, Wuzheng; Merminga, Lia; Meshkov, Igor; Mirabella, Kerry; Montag, Christoph; Nagaitsev, Sergei; Nehring, Thomas; Nicoletti, Tony; Oerter, Brian; Parkhomchuk, Vasily; Parzen, George; Pate, David; Phillips, Larry; Preble, Joseph P; Rank, Jim; Rao, Triveni; Rathke, John; Roser, Thomas; Russo, Thomas; Scaduto, Joseph; Schultheiss, Tom; Sekutowicz, Jacek; Shatunov, Yuri; Sidorin, Anatoly O; Skrinsky, Aleksander Nikolayevich; Smirnov, Alexander V; Smith, Kevin T; Todd, Alan M M; Trbojevic, Dejan; Troubnikov, Grigory; Wang, Gang; Wei, Jie; Williams, Neville; Wu, Kuo-Chen; Yakimenko, Vitaly; Zaltsman, Alex; Zhao, Yongxiang; ain, Animesh K

2005-01-01

We report progress on the R&D program for electron-cooling of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). This electron cooler is designed to cool 100 GeV/nucleon at storage energy using 54 MeV electrons. The electron source will be a superconducting RF photocathode gun. The accelerator will be a superconducting energy recovery linac. The frequency of the accelerator is set at 703.75 MHz. The maximum electron bunch frequency is 9.38 MHz, with bunch charge of 20 nC. The R&D program has the following components: The photoinjector and its photocathode, the superconducting linac cavity, start-to-end beam dynamics with magnetized electrons, electron cooling calculations including benchmarking experiments and development of a large superconducting solenoid. The photoinjector and linac cavity are being incorporated into an energy recovery linac aimed at demonstrating ampere class current at about 20 MeV. A Zeroth Order Design Report is in an advanced draft state, and can be found on the web at http://www.ags...

Dry cooling tower operating experience in the LOFT reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hunter, J.A.

1980-01-01

A dry cooling tower has been uniquely utilized to dissipate heat generated in a small experimental pressurized water nuclear reactor. Operational experience revealed that dry cooling towers can be intermittently operated with minimal wind susceptibility and water hammer occurrences by cooling potential steam sources after a reactor scram, by isolating idle tubes from the external atmosphere, and by operating at relatively high pressures. Operating experience has also revealed that tube freezing can be minimized by incorporating the proper heating and heat loss prevention features

Emergency core cooling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, Ken.

1989-01-01

In PWR type reactors, a cooling water spray portion of emergency core cooling pipelines incorporated into pipelines on high temperature side is protruded to the inside of an upper plenum. Upon rupture of primary pipelines, pressure in a pressure vessel is abruptly reduced to generate a great amount of steams in the reactor core, which are discharged at a high flow rate into the primary pipelines on high temperature side. However, since the inside of the upper plenum has a larger area and the steam flow is slow, as compared with that of the pipelines on the high temperature side, ECCS water can surely be supplied into the reactor core to promote the re-flooding of the reactor core and effectively cool the reactor. Since the nuclear reactor can effectively be cooled to enable the promotion of pressure reduction and effective supply of coolants during the period of pressure reduction upon LOCA, the capacity of the pressure accumulation vessel can be decreased. Further, the re-flooding time for the reactor is shortened to provide an effect contributing to the improvement of the safety and the reduction of the cost. (N.H.)

Incorporating reliability evaluation into the uncertainty analysis of electricity market price

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kang, Chongqing; Bai, Lichao; Xia, Qing; Jiang, Jianjian; Zhao, Jing

2005-01-01

A novel model and algorithm for analyzing the uncertainties in electricity market is proposed in this paper. In this model, bidding decision is formulated as a probabilistic model that takes into account the decision-maker's willingness to bid, risk preferences, the fluctuation of fuel-price, etc. At the same time, generating unit's uncertain output model is considered by its forced outage rate (FOR). Based on the model, the uncertainty of market price is then analyzed. Taking the analytical results into consideration, not only the reliability of the power system can be conventionally analyzed, but also the possible distribution of market prices can be easily obtained. The probability distribution of market prices can be further used to calculate the expected output and the sales income of generating unit in the market. Based on these results, it is also possible to evaluate the risk involved by generating units. A simple system with four generating units is used to illustrate the proposed algorithm. The proposed algorithm and the modeling technique are expected to helpful to the market participants in making their economic decisions

The Application of Downdraught Cooling in Vernacular Skywell Dwellings in China

Science.gov (United States)

Xuan, H.; Lv, A. M.

2017-05-01

Traditional skywell dwellings in the hot climate regions of China represent an important cultural heritage. Achieving indoor comfort meeting occupants’ expectations, can contribute to the preservation of this unique traditional architecture. Improvement of ventilation and indoor temperatures through natural, sustainable and low impact solutions is an opportunity in achieving building thermal comfort in these traditional dwellings. The existence of skywells provides a good opportunity for the incorporation of downdraught cooling with minor interventions, and thus by avoiding extensive ductwork, saving energy and improving indoor temperatures, it can contribute to the preservation of traditional dwellings. Applicability of downdraught cooling, the history of traditional ventilation solutions, layout and space features of skywell dwelling are discussed and the way of incorporating downdraught cooling as an alternative to air-conditioning into these buildings is investigated.

Incorporating the Uncertainties of Nodal-Plane Orientation in the Seismo-Lineament Analysis Method (SLAM)

Science.gov (United States)

Cronin, V.; Sverdrup, K. A.

2013-05-01

The process of delineating a seismo-lineament has evolved since the first description of the Seismo-Lineament Analysis Method (SLAM) by Cronin et al. (2008, Env & Eng Geol 14(3) 199-219). SLAM is a reconnaissance tool to find the trace of the fault that produced an shallow-focus earthquake by projecting the corresponding nodal planes (NP) upward to their intersections with the ground surface, as represented by a DEM or topographic map. A seismo-lineament is formed by the intersection of the uncertainty volume associated with a given NP and the ground surface. The ground-surface trace of the fault that produced the earthquake is likely to be within one of the two seismo-lineaments associated with the two NPs derived from the earthquake's focal mechanism solution. When no uncertainty estimate has been reported for the NP orientation, the uncertainty volume associated with a given NP is bounded by parallel planes that are [1] tangent to the ellipsoidal uncertainty volume around the focus and [2] parallel to the NP. If the ground surface is planar, the resulting seismo-lineament is bounded by parallel lines. When an uncertainty is reported for the NP orientation, the seismo-lineament resembles a bow tie, with the epicenter located adjacent to or within the "knot." Some published lists of focal mechanisms include only one NP with associated uncertainties. The NP orientation uncertainties in strike azimuth (+/- gamma), dip angle (+/- epsilon) and rake that are output from an FPFIT analysis (Reasenberg and Oppenheimer, 1985, USGS OFR 85-739) are taken to be the same for both NPs (Oppenheimer, 2013, pers com). The boundaries of the NP uncertainty volume are each comprised by planes that are tangent to the focal uncertainty ellipsoid. One boundary, whose nearest horizontal distance from the epicenter is greater than or equal to that of the other boundary, is formed by the set of all planes with strike azimuths equal to the reported NP strike azimuth +/- gamma, and dip angle

Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)

2013-11-15

This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

2013-01-01

This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty

Combination of low energy and mechanical cooling technologies for buildings in Central Europe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lain, M.; Hensen, J.L.M.

2004-01-01

This paper discusses options for incorporating low energy cooling technologies combined with standard mechanical cooling in buildings in central Europe. Case studies, design recommendations and role of computer simulation of building and system in the design process are presented. Applicability of

Aspects of uncertainty analysis in accident consequence modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.; Hoffman, F.O.

1981-01-01

Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of model predictions. In the present paper, we address three aspects of uncertainty in models used to assess the radiological impact to humans: uncertainties resulting from the natural variability in human biological parameters; the propagation of parameter variability by mathematical models; and comparison of model predictions to observational data

Methods for handling uncertainty within pharmaceutical funding decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Stevenson, Matt; Tappenden, Paul; Squires, Hazel

2014-01-01

This article provides a position statement regarding decision making under uncertainty within the economic evaluation of pharmaceuticals, with a particular focus upon the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence context within England and Wales. This area is of importance as funding agencies have a finite budget from which to purchase a selection of competing health care interventions. The objective function generally used is that of maximising societal health with an explicit acknowledgement that there will be opportunity costs associated with purchasing a particular intervention. Three components of uncertainty are discussed within a pharmaceutical funding perspective: methodological uncertainty, parameter uncertainty and structural uncertainty, alongside a discussion of challenges that are particularly pertinent to health economic evaluation. The discipline has focused primarily on handling methodological and parameter uncertainty and a clear reference case has been developed for consistency across evaluations. However, uncertainties still remain. Less attention has been given to methods for handling structural uncertainty. The lack of adequate methods to explicitly incorporate this aspect of model development may result in the true uncertainty surrounding health care investment decisions being underestimated. Research in this area is ongoing as we review.

Uncertainties related to the fault tree reliability data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apostol, Minodora; Nitoi, Mirela; Farcasiu, M.

2003-01-01

Uncertainty analyses related to the fault trees evaluate the system variability which appears from the uncertainties of the basic events probabilities. Having a logical model which describes a system, to obtain outcomes means to evaluate it, using estimations for each basic event of the model. If the model has basic events that incorporate uncertainties, then the results of the model should incorporate the uncertainties of the events. Uncertainties estimation in the final result of the fault tree means first the uncertainties evaluation for the basic event probabilities and then combination of these uncertainties, to calculate the top event uncertainty. To calculate the propagating uncertainty, a knowledge of the probability density function as well as the range of possible values of the basic event probabilities is required. The following data are defined, using suitable probability density function: the components failure rates; the human error probabilities; the initiating event frequencies. It was supposed that the possible value distribution of the basic event probabilities is given by the lognormal probability density function. To know the range of possible value of the basic event probabilities, the error factor or the uncertainty factor is required. The aim of this paper is to estimate the error factor for the failure rates and for the human errors probabilities from the reliability data base used in Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. The top event chosen as an example is FEED3, from the Pressure and Inventory Control System. The quantitative evaluation of this top event was made by using EDFT code, developed in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti (INR). It was supposed that the error factors for the component failures are the same as for the failure rates. Uncertainty analysis was made with INCERT application, which uses the moment method and Monte Carlo method. The reliability data base used at INR Pitesti does not contain the error factors (ef

Incorporation of Satellite Data and Uncertainty in a Nationwide Groundwater Recharge Model in New Zealand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rogier Westerhoff

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A nationwide model of groundwater recharge for New Zealand (NGRM, as described in this paper, demonstrated the benefits of satellite data and global models to improve the spatial definition of recharge and the estimation of recharge uncertainty. NGRM was inspired by the global-scale WaterGAP model but with the key development of rainfall recharge calculation on scales relevant to national- and catchment-scale studies (i.e., a 1 km × 1 km cell size and a monthly timestep in the period 2000–2014 provided by satellite data (i.e., MODIS-derived evapotranspiration, AET and vegetation in combination with national datasets of rainfall, elevation, soil and geology. The resulting nationwide model calculates groundwater recharge estimates, including their uncertainty, consistent across the country, which makes the model unique compared to all other New Zealand estimates targeted towards groundwater recharge. At the national scale, NGRM estimated an average recharge of 2500 m 3 /s, or 298 mm/year, with a model uncertainty of 17%. Those results were similar to the WaterGAP model, but the improved input data resulted in better spatial characteristics of recharge estimates. Multiple uncertainty analyses led to these main conclusions: the NGRM model could give valuable initial estimates in data-sparse areas, since it compared well to most ground-observed lysimeter data and local recharge models; and the nationwide input data of rainfall and geology caused the largest uncertainty in the model equation, which revealed that the satellite data could improve spatial characteristics without significantly increasing the uncertainty. Clearly the increasing volume and availability of large-scale satellite data is creating more opportunities for the application of national-scale models at the catchment, and smaller, scales. This should result in improved utility of these models including provision of initial estimates in data-sparse areas. Topics for future

Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J

2018-01-01

Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.

Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

2016-01-01

Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

Processes influencing cooling of reactor effluents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Magoulas, V.E.; Murphy, C.E. Jr.

1982-01-01

Discharge of heated reactor cooling water from SRP reactors to the Savannah River is through sections of stream channels into the Savannah River Swamp and from the swamp into the river. Significant cooling of the reactor effluents takes place in both the streams and swamp. The majority of the cooling is through processes taking place at the surface of the water. The major means of heat dissipation are convective transfer of heat to the air, latent heat transfer through evaporation and radiative transfer of infrared radiation. A model was developed which incorporates the effects of these processes on stream and swamp cooling of reactor effluents. The model was used to simulate the effect of modifications in the stream environment on the temperature of water flowing into the river. Environmental effects simulated were the effect of changing radiant heat load, the effect of changes in tree canopy density in the swamp, the effect of total removal of trees from the swamp, and the effect of diverting the heated water from L reactor from Steel Creek to Pen Branch. 6 references, 7 figures

Automated uncertainty analysis methods in the FRAP computer codes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peck, S.O.

1980-01-01

A user oriented, automated uncertainty analysis capability has been incorporated in the Fuel Rod Analysis Program (FRAP) computer codes. The FRAP codes have been developed for the analysis of Light Water Reactor fuel rod behavior during steady state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAP-T) conditions as part of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Water Reactor Safety Research Program. The objective of uncertainty analysis of these codes is to obtain estimates of the uncertainty in computed outputs of the codes is to obtain estimates of the uncertainty in computed outputs of the codes as a function of known uncertainties in input variables. This paper presents the methods used to generate an uncertainty analysis of a large computer code, discusses the assumptions that are made, and shows techniques for testing them. An uncertainty analysis of FRAP-T calculated fuel rod behavior during a hypothetical loss-of-coolant transient is presented as an example and carried through the discussion to illustrate the various concepts

Uncertainty of Water-hammer Loads for Safety Related Systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Seung Chan; Yoon, Duk Joo [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., LT., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

In this study, the basic methodology is base on ISO GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements). For a given gas void volumes in the discharge piping, the maximum pressure of water hammer is defined in equation. From equation, uncertainty parameter is selected as U{sub s} (superficial velocity for the specific pipe size and corresponding area) of equation. The main uncertainty parameter (U{sub s}) is estimated by measurement method and Monte Carlo simulation. Two methods are in good agreement with the extended uncertainty. Extended uncertainty of the measurement and Monte Carlo simulation is 1.30 and 1.34 respectively in 95% confidence interval. In 99% confidence interval, the uncertainties are 1.95 and 1.97 respectively. NRC Generic Letter 2008-01 requires nuclear power plant operators to evaluate the possibility of noncondensable gas accumulation for the Emergency Core Cooling System. Specially, gas accumulation can result in system pressure transient in pump discharge piping at a pump start. Consequently, this evolves into a gas water, a water-hammer event and the force imbalances on the piping segments. In this paper, MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) method is introduced in estimating the uncertainty of water hammer. The aim is to evaluate the uncertainty of the water hammer estimation results carried out by KHNP CRI in 2013.

Passive Two-Phase Cooling of Automotive Power Electronics: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Moreno, G.; Jeffers, J. R.; Narumanchi, S.; Bennion, K.

2014-08-01

Experiments were conducted to evaluate the use of a passive two-phase cooling strategy as a means of cooling automotive power electronics. The proposed cooling approach utilizes an indirect cooling configuration to alleviate some reliability concerns and to allow the use of conventional power modules. An inverter-scale proof-of-concept cooling system was fabricated, and tests were conducted using the refrigerants hydrofluoroolefin HFO-1234yf and hydrofluorocarbon HFC-245fa. Results demonstrated that the system can dissipate at least 3.5 kW of heat with 250 cm3 of HFC-245fa. An advanced evaporator design that incorporates features to improve performance and reduce size was conceived. Simulation results indicate its thermal resistance can be 37% to 48% lower than automotive dual side cooled power modules. Tests were also conducted to measure the thermal performance of two air-cooled condensers--plain and rifled finned tube designs. The results combined with some analysis were then used to estimate the required condenser size per operating conditions and maximum allowable system (i.e., vapor and liquid) temperatures.

Investigation of vessel exterior air cooling for a HLMC reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sienicki, J. J.; Spencer, B. W.

2000-01-01

The Secure Transportable Autonomous Reactor (STAR) concept under development at Argonne National Laboratory provides a small (300 MWt) reactor module for steam supply that incorporates design features to attain proliferation resistance, heightened passive safety, and improved cost competitiveness through extreme simplification. Examples are the achievement of 100%+ natural circulation heat removal from the low power density/low pressure drop ultra-long lifetime core and utilization of lead-bismuth eutectic (LBE) coolant enabling elimination of main coolant pumps as well as the need for an intermediate heat transport circuit. It is required to provide a passive means of removing decay heat and effecting reactor cooldown in the event that the normal steam generator heat sink, including its normal shutdown heat removal mode, is postulated to be unavailable. In the present approach, denoted as the Reactor Exterior Cooling System (RECS), passive decay heat removal is provided by cooling the outside of the containment/guard vessel with air. RECS is similar to the Reactor Vessel Auxiliary Cooling System (RVACS) incorporated into the PRISM design. However, to enhance the heat removal, RECS incorporates fins on the containment vessel exterior to enhance heat transfer to air as well as removable steel venetian conductors that provide a conduction heat transfer path across the reactor vessel-containment vessel gap to enhance heat transfer between the vessels. The objective of the present work is to investigate the effectiveness of air cooling in removing heat from the vessel and limiting the coolant temperature increase following a sudden complete loss of the steam generator heat sink

An analysis of combined standard uncertainty for radiochemical measurements of environmental samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berne, A.

1996-01-01

It is anticipated that future data acquisitions intended for use in radiological risk assessments will require the incorporation of uncertainty analysis. Often, only one aliquot of the sample is taken and a single determination is made. Under these circumstances, the total uncertainty is calculated using the open-quotes propagation of errorsclose quotes approach. However, there is no agreement in the radioanalytical community as to the exact equations to use. The Quality Assurance/Metrology Division of the Environmental Measurements Laboratory has developed a systematic process to compute uncertainties in constituent components of the analytical procedure, as well as the combined standard uncertainty (CSU). The equations for computation are presented here, with examples of their use. They have also been incorporated into a code for use in the spreadsheet application, QuattroPro trademark. Using the spreadsheet with appropriate inputs permits an analysis of the variations in the CSU as a function of several different variables. The relative importance of the open-quotes counting uncertaintyclose quotes can also be ascertained

Uncertainties estimation in surveying measurands: application to lengths, perimeters and areas

Science.gov (United States)

Covián, E.; Puente, V.; Casero, M.

2017-10-01

The present paper develops a series of methods for the estimation of uncertainty when measuring certain measurands of interest in surveying practice, such as points elevation given a planimetric position within a triangle mesh, 2D and 3D lengths (including perimeters enclosures), 2D areas (horizontal surfaces) and 3D areas (natural surfaces). The basis for the proposed methodology is the law of propagation of variance-covariance, which, applied to the corresponding model for each measurand, allows calculating the resulting uncertainty from known measurement errors. The methods are tested first in a small example, with a limited number of measurement points, and then in two real-life measurements. In addition, the proposed methods have been incorporated to commercial software used in the field of surveying engineering and focused on the creation of digital terrain models. The aim of this evolution is, firstly, to comply with the guidelines of the BIPM (Bureau International des Poids et Mesures), as the international reference agency in the field of metrology, in relation to the determination and expression of uncertainty; and secondly, to improve the quality of the measurement by indicating the uncertainty associated with a given level of confidence. The conceptual and mathematical developments for the uncertainty estimation in the aforementioned cases were conducted by researchers from the AssIST group at the University of Oviedo, eventually resulting in several different mathematical algorithms implemented in the form of MATLAB code. Based on these prototypes, technicians incorporated the referred functionality to commercial software, developed in C++. As a result of this collaboration, in early 2016 a new version of this commercial software was made available, which will be the first, as far as the authors are aware, that incorporates the possibility of estimating the uncertainty for a given level of confidence when computing the aforementioned surveying

Passive ventilation systems with heat recovery and night cooling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hviid, Christian Anker; Svendsen, Svend

2008-01-01

with little energy consumption and with satisfying indoor climate. The concept is based on using passive measures like stack and wind driven ventilation, effective night cooling and low pressure loss heat recovery using two fluid coupled water-to-air heat exchangers developed at the Technical University......In building design the requirements for energy consumption for ventilation, heating and cooling and the requirements for increasingly better indoor climate are two opposing factors. This paper presents the schematic layout and simulation results of an innovative multifunc-tional ventilation concept...... of Denmark. Through building integration in high performance offices the system is optimized to incorporate multiple functions like heating, cooling and ventilation, thus saving the expenses of separate cooling and heating systems. The simulation results are derived using the state-of-the-art building...

Experimental tests and qualification of analytical methods to address thermohydraulic phenomena in advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-05-01

Worldwide there is considerable experience in nuclear power technology, especially in water cooled reactor technology. Of the operating plants, in September 1998, 346 were light water reactors (LWRs) totalling 306 GW(e) and 29 were heavy water reactors (HWRs) totalling 15 GW(e). The accumulated experience and lessons learned from these plants are being incorporated into new advanced reactor designs. Utility requirements documents have been formulated to guide these design activities by incorporating this experience, and results from research and development programmes, with the aim of reducing costs and licensing uncertainties by establishing the technical bases for the new designs. Common goals for advanced designs are high availability, user-friendly features, competitive economics and compliance with internationally recognized safety objectives. Large water cooled reactors with power outputs of 1300 MW(e) and above, which possess inherent safety characteristics (e.g. negative Doppler moderator temperature coefficients, and negative moderator void coefficient) and incorporate proven, active engineered systems to accomplish safety functions are being developed. Other designs with power outputs from, for example, 220 MW(e) up to about 1300 MW(e) which also possess inherent safety characteristics and which place more emphasis on utilization of passive safety systems are being developed. Passive systems are based on natural forces and phenomena such as natural convection and gravity, making safety functions less dependent on active systems and components like pumps and diesel generators. In some cases, further experimental tests for the thermohydraulic conditions of interest in advanced designs can provide improved understanding of the phenomena. Further, analytical methods to predict reactor thermohydraulic behaviour can be qualified for use by comparison with the experimental results. These activities should ultimately result in more economical designs. The

Gas-fired cogeneration and cooling: new study identifies major benefits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watt, G.

2001-01-01

A research paper- 'Gas Fired Cogeneration and Cooling: Markets, Technologies and Greenhouse Gas Savings'- launched at last month's Australian Gas Association 2001 Convention, reveals that gas cooling could replace 25 PJ of electricity summer demand, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 58 percent compared with electrical technologies. Commissioned by the AGA's Gas Cooling Task Force and supported by the Sustainable Energy Authority of Victoria and the Sustainable Energy Development Authority of NSW, the study examined market opportunities and environmental outcomes for the combined gas cogeneration and cooling technologies. It shows that the penetration of gas into the distributed cooling and power generation market is being driven by the following developments: the uncertainty and volatility of electricity costs, particularly during summer, electricity market structural changes which encourage distributed generation, high and uncertain world oil prices, the relative stability of Australian gas prices, the encouragement of demand and energy management strategies by regulators, greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, indoor air quality issues, product and productivity improvements in industry and CFC phase-out opportunities

Risk, probability and uncertainty in the calculations of gas cooled reactor of PBMR type. Part 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Serbanescu, Dan

2004-01-01

The paper presents the main conclusions of the insights to a cooled gas reactor from the perspective of the following notions: probability, uncertainty, entropy and risk. Some results of the on-going comparison between the insights obtained from three models and approaches are presented. The approaches consider the Pebble Bed Module Reactor (PBMR) NPP as a thermodynamic installation and as hierarchical system with or without considering the information exchange between its various levels. The existing model was a basis for a PRA going on in phases for PBMR. In the first part of this paper results from phase II of this PRA were presented. Further activities going on in the preparation for phase II PRA and for the development of a specific application of using PRA during the design phases for PBMR are undergoing with some preliminary results and conclusions. However, for the purposes of this paper and the comparative review of various models in the part two one presents the risk model (model B) based on the assumption and ideas laid down at the basis of the future inter-comparison of this model with other plant models. The assumptions concern: the uncertainties for the quantification of frequencies; list of initiated events; interfaces with the deterministic calculation; integrated evaluation of all the plant states; risk of the release of radionuclide; the balance between the number and function of the active systems and the passive systems; systems interdependencies in PBMR PRA; use of PRA for the evaluation of the impact of various design changes on plant risk. The model B allows basically evaluating the level of risk of the plant by calculating it as a result of acceptance challenge to the plant. By using this model the departure from a reference state is given by the variation in the risk metrics adopted for the study. The paper present also the synergetic model (model C). The evaluation of risk in the model C is considering also the information process. The

Passive cooling of buildings by night-time ventilation - Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Artmann, N.; Manz, H. [Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research (EMPA), Duebendorf (Switzerland); Heiselberg, P. [Aalborg University, Aalborg (Denmark)

2008-07-01

Due to an overall trend towards an increasing cooling energy demand in buildings in many European countries over the last few decades, passive cooling by night-time ventilation is seen as a promising concept. However, because of uncertainties in thermal comfort predictions, architects and engineers are still hesitant to apply passive cooling techniques. As night-time ventilation is highly dependent on climatic conditions, a method for quantifying the climatic cooling potential was developed and the impact of climate warming was investigated. Although a clear temperature decrease was found, significant potential will remain, especially if night-time ventilation is applied in combination with other cooling methods. Building energy simulations showed that the performance of night-time ventilation is also affected by the heat transfer at internal room surfaces, as the cooling effect is very limited due to heat transfer coefficients below about 4 W/m{sup 2}K. Heat transfer during night-time ventilation in case of mixing and displacement ventilation was investigated in a full scale test room at Aalborg University. In the experiments the temperature efficiency of the ventilation was determined. Based on the previous results a method for estimating the potential for cooling by night-time ventilation at an early stage of design was developed. (author)

Incorporating forecast uncertainties into EENS for wind turbine studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Toh, G.K.; Gooi, H.B. [School of EEE, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

2011-02-15

The rapid increase in wind power generation around the world has stimulated the development of applicable technologies to model the uncertainties of wind power resulting from the stochastic nature of wind and fluctuations of demand for integration of wind turbine generators (WTGs). In this paper the load and wind power forecast errors are integrated into the expected energy not served (EENS) formulation through determination of probabilities using the normal distribution approach. The effects of forecast errors and wind energy penetration in the power system are traversed. The impact of wind energy penetration on system reliability, total cost for energy and reserve procurement is then studied for a conventional power system. The results show a degradation of system reliability with significant wind energy penetration in the generation system. This work provides a useful insight into system reliability and economics for the independent system operator (ISO) to deploy energy/reserve providers when WTGs are integrated into the existing power system. (author)

Influence of different means of turbine blade cooling on the thermodynamic performance of combined cycle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanjay; Singh, Onkar; Prasad, B.N.

2008-01-01

A comparative study of the influence of different means of turbine blade cooling on the thermodynamic performance of combined cycle power plant is presented. Seven schemes involving air and steam as coolants under open and closed loop cooling techniques have been studied. The open loop incorporates the internal convection, film and transpiration cooling techniques. Closed loop cooling includes only internal convection cooling. It has been found that closed loop steam cooling offers more specific work and consequently gives higher value of plant efficiency of about 60%, whereas open loop transpiration steam cooling, open loop steam internal convection cooling, transpiration air cooling, film steam cooling, film air, and internal convection air cooling have been found to yield lower values of plant efficiency in decreasing order as compared to closed loop steam cooling

A probabilistic approach to cost and duration uncertainties in environmental decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boak, D.M.; Painton, L.

1996-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories has developed a method for analyzing life-cycle costs using probabilistic cost forecasting and utility theory to determine the most cost-effective alternatives for safe interim storage of radioactive materials. The method explicitly incorporates uncertainties in cost and storage duration by (1) treating uncertain component costs as random variables represented by probability distributions, (2) treating uncertain durations as chance nodes in a decision tree, and (3) using stochastic simulation tools to generate life-cycle cost forecasts for each storage alternative. The method applies utility functions to the forecasted costs to incorporate the decision maker's risk preferences, making it possible to compare alternatives on the basis of both cost and cost utility. Finally, the method is used to help identify key contributors to the uncertainty in forecasted costs to focus efforts aimed at reducing cost uncertainties. Where significant cost and duration uncertainties exist, and where programmatic decisions must be made despite these uncertainties, probabilistic forecasting techniques can yield important insights into decision alternatives, especially when used as part of a larger decision analysis framework and when properly balanced with deterministic analyses. Although the method is built around an interim storage example, it is potentially applicable to many other environmental decision problems

Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

2005-01-01

Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

Selection of a cryostabilized Nb3Sn conductor cooling system for the large coil program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chi, J.W.H.; Murphy, J.H.; Jones, C.K.

1977-01-01

The Large Coil Project (LCP) is a program to design, fabricate and test relatively large superconducting toroidal field coils for tokamak fusion reactor applications. Some basic requirements that affect the conductor design are cryostabilization, 8 tesla peak magnetic field, and a specified maximum refrigeration load. The engineering considerations that led to the selection of a forced flow supercritical helium-cooled cable conductor are described. Comparisons of forced flow supercritical helium cooled cable conductors with pool boiling cooled monolithic conductors were made with regard to a number of factors such as the thermal capacity of the coolant, the thermal design margins, propensity for conductor normalization, predictability of the thermal-flow performance, controllability of the cooling conditions, etc. It was concluded that, although there exists a number of design uncertainties and engineering problems, forced flow supercritical helium cooled conductors can provide a far more reliable coil design than the pool boiling monolithic concept. The design of a cryostabilized Nb 3 Sn hollow cabled conductor involved detailed considerations of the need for fully transposed conductor strands, the nonuniform void and helium flow distributions, heat transfer from the twisted conductor strands, and helium flow rate and pump work requirements. The uncertainties in the design are discussed and the specifications of a reference Nb 3 Sn conductor concept that meets the design requirements and constraints are presented

Generalized uncertainty principles, effective Newton constant and regular black holes

OpenAIRE

Li, Xiang; Ling, Yi; Shen, You-Gen; Liu, Cheng-Zhou; He, Hong-Sheng; Xu, Lan-Fang

2016-01-01

In this paper, we explore the quantum spacetimes that are potentially connected with the generalized uncertainty principles. By analyzing the gravity-induced quantum interference pattern and the Gedanken for weighting photon, we find that the generalized uncertainty principles inspire the effective Newton constant as same as our previous proposal. A characteristic momentum associated with the tidal effect is suggested, which incorporates the quantum effect with the geometric nature of gravity...

A Catalog of Cool Dwarf Targets for the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite

Science.gov (United States)

Muirhead, Philip S.; Dressing, Courtney D.; Mann, Andrew W.; Rojas-Ayala, Bárbara; Lépine, Sébastien; Paegert, Martin; De Lee, Nathan; Oelkers, Ryan

2018-04-01

We present a catalog of cool dwarf targets (V-J> 2.7, T eff ≲ 4000 K) and their stellar properties for the upcoming Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), for the purpose of determining which cool dwarfs should be observed using two minute observations. TESS has the opportunity to search tens of thousands of nearby, cool, late K- and M-type dwarfs for transiting exoplanets, an order of magnitude more than current or previous transiting exoplanet surveys, such as Kepler, K2, and ground-based programs. This necessitates a new approach to choosing cool dwarf targets. Cool dwarfs are chosen by collating parallax and proper motion catalogs from the literature and subjecting them to a variety of selection criteria. We calculate stellar parameters and TESS magnitudes using the best possible relations from the literature while maintaining uniformity of methods for the sake of reproducibility. We estimate the expected planet yield from TESS observations using statistical results from the Kepler mission, and use these results to choose the best targets for two minute observations, optimizing for small planets for which masses can conceivably be measured using follow-up Doppler spectroscopy by current and future Doppler spectrometers. The catalog is available in machine readable format and is incorporated into the TESS Input Catalog and TESS Candidate Target List until a more complete and accurate cool dwarf catalog identified by ESA’s Gaia mission can be incorporated.

Synthesis of Optimal Processing Pathway for Microalgae-based Biorefinery under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rizwan, Muhammad; Lee, Jay H.; Gani, Rafiqul

2015-01-01

decision making, we propose a systematic framework for the synthesis and optimal design of microalgae-based processing network under uncertainty. By incorporating major uncertainties into the biorefinery superstructure model we developed previously, a stochastic mixed integer nonlinear programming (s......The research in the field of microalgae-based biofuels and chemicals is in early phase of the development, and therefore a wide range of uncertainties exist due to inconsistencies among and shortage of technical information. In order to handle and address these uncertainties to ensure robust......MINLP) problem is formulated for determining the optimal biorefinery structure under given parameter uncertainties modelled as sampled scenarios. The solution to the sMINLP problem determines the optimal decisions with respect to processing technologies, material flows, and product portfolio in the presence...

Energy management under policy and technology uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tylock, Steven M.; Seager, Thomas P.; Snell, Jeff; Bennett, Erin R.; Sweet, Don

2012-01-01

Energy managers in public agencies are subject to multiple and sometimes conflicting policy objectives regarding cost, environmental, and security concerns associated with alternative energy technologies. Making infrastructure investment decisions requires balancing different distributions of risks and benefits that are far from clear. For example, managers at permanent Army installations must incorporate Congressional legislative objectives, executive orders, Department of Defense directives, state laws and regulations, local restrictions, and multiple stakeholder concerns when undertaking new energy initiatives. Moreover, uncertainty with regard to alternative energy technologies is typically much greater than that associated with traditional technologies, both because the technologies themselves are continuously evolving and because the intermittent nature of many renewable technologies makes a certain level of uncertainty irreducible. This paper describes a novel stochastic multi-attribute analytic approach that allows users to explore different priorities or weighting schemes in combination with uncertainties related to technology performance. To illustrate the utility of this approach for understanding conflicting policy or stakeholder perspectives, prioritizing the need for more information, and making investment decisions, we apply this approach to an energy technology decision problem representative of a permanent military base. Highlights: ► Incorporate disparate criteria with uncertain performance. ► Analyze decisions with contrasting stakeholder positions. ► Interactively compare alternatives based on uncertain weighting. ► User friendly multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool.

Uncertainty as Information: Narrowing the Science-policy Gap

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. A. Bradshaw

2000-07-01

Full Text Available Conflict and indecision are hallmarks of environmental policy formulation. Some argue that the requisite information and certainty fall short of scientific standards for decision making; others argue that science is not the issue and that indecisiveness reflects a lack of political willpower. One of the most difficult aspects of translating science into policy is scientific uncertainty. Whereas scientists are familiar with uncertainty and complexity, the public and policy makers often seek certainty and deterministic solutions. We assert that environmental policy is most effective if scientific uncertainty is incorporated into a rigorous decision-theoretic framework as knowledge, not ignorance. The policies that best utilize scientific findings are defined here as those that accommodate the full scope of scientifically based predictions.

A three-dimensional mathematical model to predict air-cooling flow and temperature distribution of wire loops in the Stelmor air-cooling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, Lingxiang; Wang, Bo; Feng, Shuai; Yang, Zhiliang; Yu, Yaowei; Peng, Wangjun; Zhang, Jieyu

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A 3-dimentioanl mathematical models for complex wire loops was set up in Stelmor. • The air flow field in the cooling process was simulated. • The convective heat transfer coefficient was simulated coupled with air flow field. • The temperature distribution with distances was predicted. - Abstract: Controlling the forced air cooling conditions in the Stelmor conveyor line is important for improving the microstructure and mechanical properties of steel wire rods. A three-dimensional mathematical model incorporating the turbulent flow of the cooling air and heat transfer of the wire rods was developed to predict the cooling process in the Stelmor air-cooling line of wire rolling mills. The distribution of cooling air from the plenum chamber and the forced convective heat transfer coefficient for the wire loops were simulated at the different locations over the conveyor. The temperature profiles and cooling curves of the wire loops in Stelmor conveyor lines were also calculated by considering the convective heat transfer, radiative heat transfer as well as the latent heat during transformation. The calculated temperature results using this model agreed well with the available measured results in the industrial tests. Thus, it was demonstrated that this model can be useful for studying the air-cooling process and predicting the temperature profile and microstructure evolution of the wire rods.

Evaluation of thermal-hydraulic parameter uncertainties in a TRIGA research reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mesquita, Amir Z.; Costa, Antonio C.L.; Ladeira, Luiz C.D.; Rezende, Hugo C.; Palma, Daniel A.P.

2015-01-01

Experimental studies had been performed in the TRIGA Research Nuclear Reactor of CDTN/CNEN to find out the its thermal hydraulic parameters. Fuel to coolant heat transfer patterns must be evaluated as function of the reactor power in order to assess the thermal hydraulic performance of the core. The heat generated by nuclear fission in the reactor core is transferred from fuel elements to the cooling system through the fuel-cladding (gap) and the cladding to coolant interfaces. As the reactor core power increases the heat transfer regime from the fuel cladding to the coolant changes from single-phase natural convection to subcooled nucleate boiling. This paper presents the uncertainty analysis in the results of the thermal hydraulics experiments performed. The methodology used to evaluate the propagation of uncertainty in the results was done based on the pioneering article of Kline and McClintock, with the propagation of uncertainties based on the specification of uncertainties in various primary measurements. The uncertainty analysis on thermal hydraulics parameters of the CDTN TRIGA fuel element is determined, basically, by the uncertainty of the reactor's thermal power. (author)

The interactive management of human resources in uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Gil-Aluja, Jaime

1998-01-01

101 17. The company job balance sheet 101 18. The personnel and jobs structure 119 19. Work in homogeneous groups 125 20. Incorporation of Galois lattices 130 21. The selection of teams for associated tasks 134 22. A brief reference to costs 138 23. Problems associated with personnel assignment 140 The Hungarian assignment algorithm 24. 148 Theoretical elements of the Hungarian algorithm 25. 158 Assignment by means of the "Branch and Bound" 26. 170 Changes, abilities and costs 27. 181 28. Development of the capacity of initiative 186 29. Specialization or adaptable qualification 190 30. Incorporation of uncertainty 206 Economic incidence of passing of over from specialisation 31. to adaptable qualification 214 32. Retraining through the acquisition of new abilities 218 REFERENCES 222 FINAL CONSIDERATIONS 224 VI PREFACE The ups and downs faced by society during the latter half of the XX'Th century, have left remnants, from the uncertainty of which could emerge a different way of living together. This not only ...

Assignment of uncertainties to scientific data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Froehner, F.H.

1994-01-01

Long-standing problems of uncertainty assignment to scientific data came into a sharp focus in recent years when uncertainty information ('covariance files') had to be added to application-oriented large libraries of evaluated nuclear data such as ENDF and JEF. Question arouse about the best way to express uncertainties, the meaning of statistical and systematic errors, the origin of correlation and construction of covariance matrices, the combination of uncertain data from different sources, the general usefulness of results that are strictly valid only for Gaussian or only for linear statistical models, etc. Conventional statistical theory is often unable to give unambiguous answers, and tends to fail when statistics is bad so that prior information becomes crucial. Modern probability theory, on the other hand, incorporating decision information becomes group-theoretic results, is shown to provide straight and unique answers to such questions, and to deal easily with prior information and small samples. (author). 10 refs

Cost-effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Lucy E; Heard, Geoffrey W; Chee, Yung En; Wintle, Brendan A

2016-04-01

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well-developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one-time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost-effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost-effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost-effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost-effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost-effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost-effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost-effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost

Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: performance of grizzly bear management.

Science.gov (United States)

Artelle, Kyle A; Anderson, Sean C; Cooper, Andrew B; Paquet, Paul C; Reynolds, John D; Darimont, Chris T

2013-01-01

Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.

Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: performance of grizzly bear management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyle A Artelle

Full Text Available Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.

Quantifying reactor safety margins: Part 1: An overview of the code scaling, applicability, and uncertainty evaluation methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.

1988-01-01

In August 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved the final version of a revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling systems (ECCS) entitled ''Emergency Core Cooling System; Revisions to Acceptance Criteria.'' The revised rule states an alternate ECCS performance analysis, based on best-estimate methods, may be used to provide more realistic estimates of plant safety margins, provided the licensee quantifies the uncertainty of the estimates and included that uncertainty when comparing the calculated results with prescribed acceptance limits. To support the revised ECCS rule, the NRC and its contractors and consultants have developed and demonstrated a method called the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology. It is an auditable, traceable, and practical method for combining quantitative analyses and expert opinions to arrive at computed values of uncertainty. This paper provides an overview of the CSAU evaluation methodology and its application to a postulated cold-leg, large-break loss-of-coolant accident in a Westinghouse four-loop pressurized water reactor with 17 /times/ 17 fuel. The code selected for this demonstration of the CSAU methodology was TRAC-PF1/MOD1, Version 14.3. 23 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

Improvement of Cooling Performance of a Compact Thermoelectric Air Conditioner Using a Direct Evaporative Cooling System

Science.gov (United States)

Tipsaenporm, W.; Lertsatitthanakorn, C.; Bubphachot, B.; Rungsiyopas, M.; Soponronnarit, S.

2012-06-01

This paper presents the results of tests carried out to investigate the potential application of a direct evaporative cooling (DEC) system for improving the performance of a compact thermoelectric (TE) air conditioner. The compact TE air conditioner is composed of three TE modules. The cold and hot sides of the TE modules were fixed to rectangular fin heat sinks. The DEC system produced cooling air that was used to assist the release of heat from the heat sinks at the hot side of the TE modules. The results showed that the cooling air dry bulb temperature from the DEC system achieved drops of about 5.9°C in parallel with about a 33.4% rise in relative humidity. The cooling efficiency of the DEC system varies between 72.1% and 81.5%. It increases the cooling capacity of the compact TE air conditioner from 53.0 W to 74.5 W. The 21.5 W (40.6%) increase represents the difference between the compact air conditioner operating with ambient air flowing through the TE module's heat sinks, and the compact air conditioner operating with the cooler air from the DEC system flowing through the TE module's heat sinks. In both scenarios, electric current of 4.5 A was supplied to the TE modules. It also has been experimentally proven that the coefficient of performance (COP) of the compact TE air conditioner can be improved by up to 20.9% by incorporating the DEC system.

76 FR 66339 - Inaugural Roundtable of the Financial Reporting Series Entitled “Uncertainty in Financial...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-26

... uncertainty in an accounting measurement is less useful to investors and why a more certain measurement would be preferable. Likewise, provide feedback on those topics where a measurement with uncertainty gives... discussion to consider financial statement measurements (and associated disclosures) that incorporate...

Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Seroka, Greg; Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-06-01

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.

Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-01-01

Abstract Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels. PMID:28944132

Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2007-06-21

Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.

Mixed-ligand complexes of ruthenium(II) incorporating a diazo ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Unknown

Dedicated to the memory of the late Professor Bhaskar G Maiya. *For correspondence. Mixed-ligand complexes of ruthenium(II) incorporating a diazo ligand: Synthesis .... water (1 : 1) for 5 h to give a dark red solution. The solution was cooled to room temperature. After eva- poration of the solvent, the solid was collected,.

Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun [Univ. of Tulsa, OK (United States); Oliver, D.S. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

1997-08-01

Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

Simulation and uncertainties of the heat transfer from a heat-generating DEBRIS bed in the lower plenum

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schaaf, K.; Trambauer, K.

1999-01-01

The findings of the TMI-2 post-accident analyses indicated that internal cooling mechanisms may have a considerable potential to sustain the vessel integrity after a relocation of core material to the lower plenum, provided that water is continuously available in the RPV. Numerous analytical and experimental research activities are currently underway in this respect. This paper illustrates some major findings of the experimental work on internal cooling mechanisms and describes the limitations and the uncertainties in the simulation of the heat transfer processes. Reference is made especially to the joint German DEBRIS/ RPV research program, which encompasses the experimental investigation of the thermal-hydraulics in gaps, of the heat transfer within a particulate debris bed, and of the high temperature performance of vessel steel, as well as the development of simulation models for the heat transfer in the lower head and the structural response of the RPV. In particular, the results of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are presented, which have been carried out at GRS using an integral model that describes the major phenomena governing the long-term integrity of the reactor vessel. The investigation of a large-scale relocation indicated that the verification of a gap cooling mechanism as an inherent mechanism is questionable in terms of a stringent probabilistic uncertainty criterion, as long as the formation of a large molten pool cannot be excluded. (author)

Turbine airfoil cooling system with cooling systems using high and low pressure cooling fluids

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, Jan H.; Messmann, Stephen John; Scribner, Carmen Andrew

2017-10-25

A turbine airfoil cooling system including a low pressure cooling system and a high pressure cooling system for a turbine airfoil of a gas turbine engine is disclosed. In at least one embodiment, the low pressure cooling system may be an ambient air cooling system, and the high pressure cooling system may be a compressor bleed air cooling system. In at least one embodiment, the compressor bleed air cooling system in communication with a high pressure subsystem that may be a snubber cooling system positioned within a snubber. A delivery system including a movable air supply tube may be used to separate the low and high pressure cooling subsystems. The delivery system may enable high pressure cooling air to be passed to the snubber cooling system separate from low pressure cooling fluid supplied by the low pressure cooling system to other portions of the turbine airfoil cooling system.

Immersion cooling of silicon photomultipliers (SiPM) for nuclear medicine imaging applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raylman, R.R.; Stolin, A.V.

2016-01-01

Silicon photomultipliers (SiPM) are compact, high amplification light detection devices that have recently been incorporated into magnetic field-compatible positron emission tomography (PET) scanners. To take full advantage of these devices, it is preferable to cool them below room temperature. Most current methods are limited to the cooling of individual detector modules, increasing complexity and cost of scanners made-up of a large number of modules. In this work we investigated a new method of cooling, immersion of the detector modules in non-electrically conductive, cooled liquid. A small-scale prototype system was constructed to cool a relatively large area SiPM-based, scintillator detector module by immersing it in a circulating bath of mineral oil. Testing demonstrated that the system rapidly decreased and stabilized the temperature of the device. Operation of the detector illustrated the expected benefits of cooling, with no apparent degradation of performance attributable to immersion in fluid. - Highlights: • Immersion cooling is new, simple and inexpensive method to cool solid state based nuclear medicine scanner. • Method successfully tested on a scaled version of an SiPM-based PET detector module. • Can be scaled up to cool a complete PET scanner.

Review of best estimate plus uncertainty methods of thermal-hydraulic safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prosek, A.; Mavko, B.

2003-01-01

In 1988 United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved the revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling system (ECCS) performance. Since that there has been significant interest in the development of codes and methodologies for best-estimate loss-of-coolant accident (LOCAs) analyses. Several new best estimate plus uncertainty methods (BEPUs) were developed in the world. The purpose of the paper is to review the developments in the direction of best estimate approaches with uncertainty quantification and to discuss the problems in practical applications of BEPU methods. In general, the licensee methods are following original methods. The study indicated that uncertainty analysis with random sampling of input parameters and the use of order statistics for desired tolerance limits of output parameters is today commonly accepted and mature approach. (author)

Thermo-Elastic Analysis of Internally Cooled Structures Using a Higher Order Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Arnold, Steven M.; Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Aboudi, Jacob

2001-01-01

This paper presents the results of a study on the thermomechanical behavior of internally cooled silicon nitride structures. Silicon nitride is under consideration for elevated temperature aerospace engine applications. and techniques for lowering the operating temperature of structures composed of this material are under development. Lowering the operating temperature provides a large payoff in terms of fatigue life and may be accomplished through the use of thermal barrier coatings (TBC's) and the novel concept of included cooling channels. Herein, an in-depth study is performed on the behavior of a flame-impinged silicon nitride plate with a TBC and internal channels cooled by forced air. The analysis is performed using the higher order theory for functionally graded materials (HOTFGM), which has been developed through NASA Glenn Research Center funding over the past several years. HOTFGM was chosen over the traditional finite element approach as a prelude to an examination of functionally graded silicon nitride structures for which HOTFGM is ideally suited. To accommodate the analysis requirement% of the internally cooled plate problem, two crucial enhancements were made to the two-dimensional Cartesian-based version of HOTFGM. namely, incorporation of internal boundary capabilities and incorporation of convective boundary conditions. Results indicate the viability and large benefits of cooling the plate via forced air through cooling channels. Furthermore, cooling can positively impact the stress and displacement fields present in the plate, yielding an additional payoff in terms of fatigue life. Finally, a spin-off capability resulted from inclusion of internal boundaries within HOTFGM; the ability to simulate the thermo-elastic response of structures with curved surfaces. This new capability is demonstrated, and through comparison with an analytical solution, shown to be viable and accurate.

Methods to incorporate different data types in the characterization process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomez-Hernandez, J.J.; Carrera, J.; Medina, A.

1998-01-01

Spatial variability of the hydrodynamic parameters controlling radionuclide transport causes large uncertainties in the predictions. Methods have been devised to analyze spatial variability of these parameters and to model the uncertainty of the predictions. However, the final use given to large portions of the total data collected is minimal. Techniques have been developed and implemented with the aim of incorporating all types of data in the characterization of the spatial variability of conductivity/transmissivity. This serves to reduce the uncertainty in the predictions and to increase the confidence in the model. Types of data used in models include: geometric information, transmissivity data, piezometric data, geological/geophysical information tracer test concentration data, and isotopic data. (R.P.)

Decision Under Uncertainty in Diagnosis

OpenAIRE

Kalme, Charles I.

2013-01-01

This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge based diagnosis may be viewed as the generic form at the compiled end of the spectrum. A major undercurrent in this is advocating the need for a strong underlying model and an integrated set of support tools for carrying such a model in order to deal with ...

Mechanical effects of strong measurement: back-action noise and cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Schwab, Keith

2007-03-01

Our recent experiments show that it is now possible to prepare and measure mechanical systems with thermal occupation factors of N˜25 and perform continuous position measurements close to the limits required by the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle (1). I will discuss our back-action measurements with nanomechanical structures strongly coupled to single electron transistors. We have been able to observe the stochastic back-action forces exerted by the SET as well as a cooling effect which has analogies to cooling in optical cavities. Furthermore, I will discuss progress using optical fields coupled to mechanical modes which show substantial cooling using the pondermotive effects of the photons impacting a flexible dielectric mirror (2). Both of these techniques pave the way to demonstrating the true quantum properties of a mechanical device: squeezed states, superposition states, and entangled states. (1) ``Quantum Measurement Backaction and Cooling Observed with a Nanomechanical Resonator,'' A. Naik, O. Buu, M.D. LaHaye, M.P. Blencowe, A.D. Armour, A.A. Clerk, K.C. Schwab, Nature 443, 193 (2006). (2) ``Self-cooling of a micro-mirror by radiation pressure,'' S. Gigan, H.R. Boehm, M. Patemostro, F. Blaser, G. Langer, J. Hertzberg, K. Schwab, D. Baeuerle, M. Aspelmeyer, A. Zeilinger, Nature 444, 67 (2006).

Optimization of FRAP uncertainty analysis option

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peck, S.O.

1979-10-01

The automated uncertainty analysis option that has been incorporated in the FRAP codes (FRAP-T5 and FRAPCON-2) provides the user with a means of obtaining uncertainty bands on code predicted variables at user-selected times during a fuel pin analysis. These uncertainty bands are obtained by multiple single fuel pin analyses to generate data which can then be analyzed by second order statistical error propagation techniques. In this process, a considerable amount of data is generated and stored on tape. The user has certain choices to make regarding which independent variables are to be used in the analysis and what order of error propagation equation should be used in modeling the output response. To aid the user in these decisions, a computer program, ANALYZ, has been written and added to the uncertainty analysis option package. A variety of considerations involved in fitting response surface equations and certain pit-falls of which the user should be aware are discussed. An equation is derived expressing a residual as a function of a fitted model and an assumed true model. A variety of experimental design choices are discussed, including the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Finally, a description of the subcodes which constitute program ANALYZ is provided

IAEA Coordinated Research Project on HTGR Reactor Physics, Thermal-hydraulics and Depletion Uncertainty Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Strydom, Gerhard [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bostelmann, F. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The predictive capability of coupled neutronics/thermal-hydraulics and depletion simulations for reactor design and safety analysis can be assessed with sensitivity analysis (SA) and uncertainty analysis (UA) methods. Uncertainty originates from errors in physical data, manufacturing uncertainties, modelling and computational algorithms. (The interested reader is referred to the large body of published SA and UA literature for a more complete overview of the various types of uncertainties, methodologies and results obtained). SA is helpful for ranking the various sources of uncertainty and error in the results of core analyses. SA and UA are required to address cost, safety, and licensing needs and should be applied to all aspects of reactor multi-physics simulation. SA and UA can guide experimental, modelling, and algorithm research and development. Current SA and UA rely either on derivative-based methods such as stochastic sampling methods or on generalized perturbation theory to obtain sensitivity coefficients. Neither approach addresses all needs. In order to benefit from recent advances in modelling and simulation and the availability of new covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) extensive sensitivity and uncertainty studies are needed for quantification of the impact of different sources of uncertainties on the design and safety parameters of HTGRs. Only a parallel effort in advanced simulation and in nuclear data improvement will be able to provide designers with more robust and well validated calculation tools to meet design target accuracies. In February 2009, the Technical Working Group on Gas-Cooled Reactors (TWG-GCR) of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) recommended that the proposed Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on

Heat removal capability of core-catcher with inclined cooling channels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suzuki, Y.; Tahara, M.; Kurita, T.; Hamazaki, R.; Morooka, S.

2009-01-01

A core-catcher is one of the mitigation systems that provide functions of molten corium cooling and stabilization during a severe accident. Toshiba has been developing a compact core-catcher to be placed at the lower drywell floor in the containment vessel for the next generation BWR as well as near term ABWR. This paper presents the evaluation of heat removal capability of the core-catcher with inclined cooling channels, our verification status and plan. The heat removal capability of the core-catcher is analyzed by using the newly developed two-phase flow analysis code which incorporates drift flux parameters for inclined channels and the CHF correlation obtained from SULTAN tests. Effects of geometrical parameters such as the inclination and the gap size of the cooling channel on the heat removal capability are also evaluated. These results show that the core-catcher has sufficient capability to cool the molten corium during a severe accident. Based on the analysis, it has been shown that the core-catcher has an efficient capability of heat removal to cool the molten corium. (author)

On the evaluation of a fuel assembly design by means of uncertainty and sensitivity measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaeger, Wadim; Sanchez Espinoza, Victor Hugo

2012-01-01

This paper will provide results of an uncertainty and sensitivity study in order to calculate parameters of safety related importance like the fuel centerline temperature, the cladding temperature and the fuel assembly pressure drop of a lead-alloy cooled fast system. Applying best practice guidelines, a list of uncertain parameters has been identified. The considered parameter variations are based on the experience gained during fabrication and operation of former and existing liquid metal cooled fast systems as well as on experimental results and on engineering judgment. (orig.)

On the evaluation of a fuel assembly design by means of uncertainty and sensitivity measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jaeger, Wadim; Sanchez Espinoza, Victor Hugo [Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen (Germany). Inst. for Neutron Physics and Reactor Technology

2012-11-15

This paper will provide results of an uncertainty and sensitivity study in order to calculate parameters of safety related importance like the fuel centerline temperature, the cladding temperature and the fuel assembly pressure drop of a lead-alloy cooled fast system. Applying best practice guidelines, a list of uncertain parameters has been identified. The considered parameter variations are based on the experience gained during fabrication and operation of former and existing liquid metal cooled fast systems as well as on experimental results and on engineering judgment. (orig.)

Effectiveness of External Reactor Vessel Cooling (ERVC) strategy for APR1400 and issues of phenomenological uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, S.J.; Kim, H.T.

2007-01-01

The APR1400(Advanced Power Reactor 1400) is an evolutionary advanced light water reactor with rated thermal power of 4000 MWt. For APR1400, External Reactor Vessel Cooling (ERVC) is adopted as a primary severe accident management strategy for in-vessel retention (IVR) of corium. The ERVC is a method of IVR by submerging the reactor vessel exterior. At the early stage of the APR1400 design, only ex-vessel cooling, cooling of the core melt outside the vessel after vessel is breached, is considered based on the EPRI Utility Requirement Document for Evolutionary LWR. However, based on the progress in implementation of Severe Accident Management Guidance (SAMG) for operating plants, as well as the research findings related to ERVC, ERVC strategy is adopted as a part of key severe accident management strategies. To improve its success, the strategy is reviewed and we implemented necessary design arrangement to increase its usefulness in managing the severe accident. In this paper, we examine the evolution of ERVC concept and its implementation in APR1400. Then, we review possible approach, including Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM), to evaluate the effectiveness of the strategy. (authors)

Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Potter, K.; Kniss, J.; Riesenfeld, R.; Johnson, C.R.

2010-01-01

The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

KAUST Repository

Potter, K.

2010-08-12

The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Quantum Action Principle with Generalized Uncertainty Principle

OpenAIRE

Gu, Jie

2013-01-01

One of the common features in all promising candidates of quantum gravity is the existence of a minimal length scale, which naturally emerges with a generalized uncertainty principle, or equivalently a modified commutation relation. Schwinger's quantum action principle was modified to incorporate this modification, and was applied to the calculation of the kernel of a free particle, partly recovering the result previously studied using path integral.

Evidence-based quantification of uncertainties induced via simulation-based modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Riley, Matthew E.

2015-01-01

The quantification of uncertainties in simulation-based modeling traditionally focuses upon quantifying uncertainties in the parameters input into the model, referred to as parametric uncertainties. Often neglected in such an approach are the uncertainties induced by the modeling process itself. This deficiency is often due to a lack of information regarding the problem or the models considered, which could theoretically be reduced through the introduction of additional data. Because of the nature of this epistemic uncertainty, traditional probabilistic frameworks utilized for the quantification of uncertainties are not necessarily applicable to quantify the uncertainties induced in the modeling process itself. This work develops and utilizes a methodology – incorporating aspects of Dempster–Shafer Theory and Bayesian model averaging – to quantify uncertainties of all forms for simulation-based modeling problems. The approach expands upon classical parametric uncertainty approaches, allowing for the quantification of modeling-induced uncertainties as well, ultimately providing bounds on classical probability without the loss of epistemic generality. The approach is demonstrated on two different simulation-based modeling problems: the computation of the natural frequency of a simple two degree of freedom non-linear spring mass system and the calculation of the flutter velocity coefficient for the AGARD 445.6 wing given a subset of commercially available modeling choices. - Highlights: • Modeling-induced uncertainties are often mishandled or ignored in the literature. • Modeling-induced uncertainties are epistemic in nature. • Probabilistic representations of modeling-induced uncertainties are restrictive. • Evidence theory and Bayesian model averaging are integrated. • Developed approach is applicable for simulation-based modeling problems

Asbestos in cooling-tower waters. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lewis, B.A.G.

1979-03-01

Water discharges from cooling towers constructed with asbestos fill were found to contain chrysotile--asbestos fibers at concentrations as high as 10 8 fibers/liter. The major source of these fibers, appears to be the components of the towers rather than the air drawn through the towers or the makeup water taken into the towers. Suggested mechanisms for the release of chrysotile fibers from cooling-tower fill include freeze-thaw cycles and dissolution of the cement due to acidic components of the circulating water. Ash- or other material-settling ponds were found to reduce asbestos-fiber concentrations in cooling-tower effluent. The literature reviewed did not support the case for a causal relationship between adverse human health effects and drinking water containing on the order of 10 6 chrysotile--asbestos fibers/liter; for this and other reasons, it is not presently suggested that the use of asbestos fill be discontinued. However, caution and surveillance are dictated by the uncertainties in the epidemiological studies, the absence of evidence for a safe threshold concentration in water, and the conclusive evidence for adverse effects from occupational exposure. It is recommended that monitoring programs be carried out at sites where asbestos fill is used; data from such programs can be used to determine whether any mitigative measures should be taken. On the basis of estimates made in this study, monitoring for asbestos in drift from cooling towers does not appear to be warranted

Validation and uncertainty analysis of the Athlet thermal-hydraulic computer code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glaeser, H.

1995-01-01

The computer code ATHLET is being developed by GRS as an advanced best-estimate code for the simulation of breaks and transients in Pressurized Water Reactor (PWRs) and Boiling Water Reactor (BWRs) including beyond design basis accidents. A systematic validation of ATHLET is based on a well balanced set of integral and separate effects tests emphasizing the German combined Emergency Core Cooling (ECC) injection system. When using best estimate codes for predictions of reactor plant states during assumed accidents, qualification of the uncertainty in these calculations is highly desirable. A method for uncertainty and sensitivity evaluation has been developed by GRS where the computational effort is independent of the number of uncertain parameters. (author)

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the HCLL mock-up experiment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leichtle, D.; Fischer, U.; Kodeli, I.; Perel, R.L.; Klix, A.; Batistoni, P.; Villari, R.

2010-01-01

Within the European Fusion Technology Programme dedicated computational methods, tools and data have been developed and validated for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of fusion neutronics experiments. The present paper is devoted to this kind of analyses on the recent neutronics experiment on a mock-up of the Helium-Cooled Lithium Lead Test Blanket Module for ITER at the Frascati neutron generator. They comprise both probabilistic and deterministic methodologies for the assessment of uncertainties of nuclear responses due to nuclear data uncertainties and their sensitivities to the involved reaction cross-section data. We have used MCNP and MCSEN codes in the Monte Carlo approach and DORT and SUSD3D in the deterministic approach for transport and sensitivity calculations, respectively. In both cases JEFF-3.1 and FENDL-2.1 libraries for the transport data and mainly ENDF/B-VI.8 and SCALE6.0 libraries for the relevant covariance data have been used. With a few exceptions, the two different methodological approaches were shown to provide consistent results. A total nuclear data related uncertainty in the range of 1-2% (1σ confidence level) was assessed for the tritium production in the HCLL mock-up experiment.

Liquid metal cooled fast breeder nuclear reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, G.; Mitchell, A.J.

1981-01-01

Fuel sub-assemblies for liquid metal-cooled fast breeder reactors are described which each incorporate a fluid flow control valve for regulating the rate of flow through the sub-assembly. These small electro-magnetic valves seek to maintain the outlet coolant temperature of at least some of the breeder sub-assemblies substantially constant throughout the life of the fuel assembly without severely pressurising the sub-assembly. (U.K.)

Methods improvements incorporated into the SAPHIRE ASP models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.; Smith, C.L.; Rasmuson, D.M.

1994-01-01

The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methodology, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3) enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements

Methods improvements incorporated into the SAPHIRE ASP models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.

1995-01-01

The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methods, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3) enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements

Perspectives on understanding and verifying the safety terrain of modular high temperature gas-cooled reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carlson, Donald E., E-mail: donald@carlsonperin.net [11221 Empire Lane, Rockville, MD 20852 (United States); Ball, Sydney J., E-mail: beckysyd@comcast.net [100 Greywood Place, Oak Ridge, TN 37830 (United States)

2016-09-15

The passive safety characteristics of modular high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) are conceptually well known and are largely supported by insights from past and ongoing research. This paper offers perspectives on selected issues in areas where further analysis and testing achievable within existing research and demonstration programs could help address residual uncertainties and better support the analysis of safety performance and the regulatory assessment of defense in depth. Areas considered include the evaluation of normal and anomalous core operating conditions and the analysis of accidents involving loss of forced cooling, coolant depressurization, air ingress, moisture ingress, and reactivity events. In addition to discussing associated uncertainties and potential measures to address them, this paper also proposes supplemental “safety terrain” studies that would use realistic assessments of postulated extreme event sequences to establish a more comprehensive understanding of the inherent behaviors and ultimate safety capabilities of modular HTGRs.

Supporting Sustainable Markets Through Life Cycle Assessment: Evaluating emerging technologies, incorporating uncertainty and the consumer perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Merugula, Laura

As civilization's collective knowledge grows, we are met with the realization that human-induced physical and biological transformations influenced by exogenous psychosocial and economic factors affect virtually every ecosystem on the planet. Despite improvements in energy generation and efficiencies, demand of material goods and energy services increases with no sign of a slowing pace. Sustainable development requires a multi-prong approach that involves reshaping demand, consumer education, sustainability-oriented policy, and supply chain management that does not serve the expansionist mentality. Thus, decision support tools are needed that inform developers, consumers, and policy-makers for short-term and long-term planning. These tools should incorporate uncertainty through quantitative methods as well as qualitatively informing the nature of the model as imperfect but necessary and adequate. A case study is presented of the manufacture and deployment of utility-scale wind turbines evaluated for a proposed change in blade manufacturing. It provides the first life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluating impact of carbon nanofibers, an emerging material, proposed for integration to wind power generation systems as blade reinforcement. Few LCAs of nanoproducts are available in scientific literature due to research and development (R&D) for applications that continues to outpace R&D for environmental, health, and safety (EHS) and life cycle impacts. LCAs of emerging technologies are crucial for informing developers of potential impacts, especially where market growth is swift and dissipative. A second case study is presented that evaluates consumer choice between disposable and reusable beverage cups. While there are a few studies that attempt to make the comparison using LCA, none adequately address uncertainty, nor are they representative for the typical American consumer. By disaggregating U.S. power generation into 26 subregional grid production mixes and evaluating

Maximum respiratory pressure measuring system : calibration and evaluation of uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ferreira, J.L.; Pereira, N.C.; Oliveira Júnior, M.; Vasconcelos, F.H.; Parreira, V.F.; Tierra-Criollo, C.J.

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to present a methodology for the evaluation of uncertainties in the measurements results obtained during the calibration of a digital manovacuometer prototype (DM) with a load cell sensor pressure device incorporated. Calibration curves were obtained for both pressure

Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Uncertainty and sampling issues in tank characterization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liebetrau, A.M.; Pulsipher, B.A.; Kashporenko, D.M.

1997-06-01

A defensible characterization strategy must recognize that uncertainties are inherent in any measurement or estimate of interest and must employ statistical methods for quantifying and managing those uncertainties. Estimates of risk and therefore key decisions must incorporate knowledge about uncertainty. This report focuses statistical methods that should be employed to ensure confident decision making and appropriate management of uncertainty. Sampling is a major source of uncertainty that deserves special consideration in the tank characterization strategy. The question of whether sampling will ever provide the reliable information needed to resolve safety issues is explored. The issue of sample representativeness must be resolved before sample information is reliable. Representativeness is a relative term but can be defined in terms of bias and precision. Currently, precision can be quantified and managed through an effective sampling and statistical analysis program. Quantifying bias is more difficult and is not being addressed under the current sampling strategies. Bias could be bounded by (1) employing new sampling methods that can obtain samples from other areas in the tanks, (2) putting in new risers on some worst case tanks and comparing the results from existing risers with new risers, or (3) sampling tanks through risers under which no disturbance or activity has previously occurred. With some bound on bias and estimates of precision, various sampling strategies could be determined and shown to be either cost-effective or infeasible

Tactical supply chain planning for a forest biomass power plant under supply uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shabani, Nazanin; Sowlati, Taraneh; Ouhimmou, Mustapha; Rönnqvist, Mikael

2014-01-01

Uncertainty in biomass supply is a critical issue that needs to be considered in the production planning of bioenergy plants. Incorporating uncertainty in supply chain planning models provides improved and stable solutions. In this paper, we first reformulate a previously developed non-linear programming model for optimization of a forest biomass power plant supply chain into a linear programming model. The developed model is a multi-period tactical-level production planning problem and considers the supply and storage of forest biomass as well as the production of electricity. It has a one-year planning horizon with monthly time steps. Next, in order to incorporate uncertainty in monthly available biomass into the planning, we develop a two-stage stochastic programming model. Finally, to balance the risk and profit, we propose a bi-objective model. The results show that uncertainty in availability of biomass has an additional cost of $0.4 million for the power plant. Using the proposed stochastic optimization model could reduce this cost by half. - Highlights: • Developed a two-stage stochastic optimization model to consider supply uncertainty. • Maximized the profit of a forest biomass power plant value chain. • Minimized two risk measures, variability index and downside risk, to manage risks. • Stochastic optimization model provided feasible solution for all scenarios. • Results showed a trade-off between profit and risk management

Revisiting the Cooling Flow Problem in Galaxies, Groups, and Clusters of Galaxies

Science.gov (United States)

McDonald, M.; Gaspari, M.; McNamara, B. R.; Tremblay, G. R.

2018-05-01

We present a study of 107 galaxies, groups, and clusters spanning ∼3 orders of magnitude in mass, ∼5 orders of magnitude in central galaxy star formation rate (SFR), ∼4 orders of magnitude in the classical cooling rate ({\\dot{M}}cool}\\equiv {M}gas}(rsample, we measure the ICM cooling rate, {\\dot{M}}cool}, using archival Chandra X-ray data and acquire the SFR and systematic uncertainty in the SFR by combining over 330 estimates from dozens of literature sources. With these data, we estimate the efficiency with which the ICM cools and forms stars, finding {ε }cool}\\equiv {SFR}/{\\dot{M}}cool}=1.4 % +/- 0.4% for systems with {\\dot{M}}cool}> 30 M ⊙ yr‑1. For these systems, we measure a slope in the SFR–{\\dot{M}}cool} relation greater than unity, suggesting that the systems with the strongest cool cores are also cooling more efficiently. We propose that this may be related to, on average, higher black hole accretion rates in the strongest cool cores, which could influence the total amount (saturating near the Eddington rate) and dominant mode (mechanical versus radiative) of feedback. For systems with {\\dot{M}}cool}< 30 M ⊙ yr‑1, we find that the SFR and {\\dot{M}}cool} are uncorrelated and show that this is consistent with star formation being fueled at a low (but dominant) level by recycled ISM gas in these systems. We find an intrinsic log-normal scatter in SFR at a fixed {\\dot{M}}cool} of 0.52 ± 0.06 dex (1σ rms), suggesting that cooling is tightly self-regulated over very long timescales but can vary dramatically on short timescales. There is weak evidence that this scatter may be related to the feedback mechanism, with the scatter being minimized (∼0.4 dex) for systems for which the mechanical feedback power is within a factor of two of the cooling luminosity.

Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonnema, B.E.

2002-01-01

This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets.'' In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks

Heat pipe cooling of power processing magnetics

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, I. G.; Chester, M.

1979-01-01

The constant demand for increased power and reduced mass has raised the internal temperature of conventionally cooled power magnetics toward the upper limit of acceptability. The conflicting demands of electrical isolation, mechanical integrity, and thermal conductivity preclude significant further advancements using conventional approaches. However, the size and mass of multikilowatt power processing systems may be further reduced by the incorporation of heat pipe cooling directly into the power magnetics. Additionally, by maintaining lower more constant temperatures, the life and reliability of the magnetic devices will be improved. A heat pipe cooled transformer and input filter have been developed for the 2.4 kW beam supply of a 30-cm ion thruster system. This development yielded a mass reduction of 40% (1.76 kg) and lower mean winding temperature (20 C lower). While these improvements are significant, preliminary designs predict even greater benefits to be realized at higher power. This paper presents the design details along with the results of thermal vacuum operation and the component performance in a 3 kW breadboard power processor.

Multi-stage circulating fluidized bed syngas cooling

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Guohai; Vimalchand, Pannalal; Guan, Xiaofeng; Peng, WanWang

2016-10-11

A method and apparatus for cooling hot gas streams in the temperature range 800.degree. C. to 1600.degree. C. using multi-stage circulating fluid bed (CFB) coolers is disclosed. The invention relates to cooling the hot syngas from coal gasifiers in which the hot syngas entrains substances that foul, erode and corrode heat transfer surfaces upon contact in conventional coolers. The hot syngas is cooled by extracting and indirectly transferring heat to heat transfer surfaces with circulating inert solid particles in CFB syngas coolers. The CFB syngas coolers are staged to facilitate generation of steam at multiple conditions and hot boiler feed water that are necessary for power generation in an IGCC process. The multi-stage syngas cooler can include internally circulating fluid bed coolers, externally circulating fluid bed coolers and hybrid coolers that incorporate features of both internally and externally circulating fluid bed coolers. Higher process efficiencies can be realized as the invention can handle hot syngas from various types of gasifiers without the need for a less efficient precooling step.

Testing Numerical Models of Cool Core Galaxy Cluster Formation with X-Ray Observations

Science.gov (United States)

Henning, Jason W.; Gantner, Brennan; Burns, Jack O.; Hallman, Eric J.

2009-12-01

Using archival Chandra and ROSAT data along with numerical simulations, we compare the properties of cool core and non-cool core galaxy clusters, paying particular attention to the region beyond the cluster cores. With the use of single and double β-models, we demonstrate a statistically significant difference in the slopes of observed cluster surface brightness profiles while the cluster cores remain indistinguishable between the two cluster types. Additionally, through the use of hardness ratio profiles, we find evidence suggesting cool core clusters are cooler beyond their cores than non-cool core clusters of comparable mass and temperature, both in observed and simulated clusters. The similarities between real and simulated clusters supports a model presented in earlier work by the authors describing differing merger histories between cool core and non-cool core clusters. Discrepancies between real and simulated clusters will inform upcoming numerical models and simulations as to new ways to incorporate feedback in these systems.

Development of a Dynamic Lidar Uncertainty Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clifton, Andrew [WindForS; Bonin, Timothy [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Choukulkar, Aditya [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Brewer, W. Alan [NOAA ESRL; Delgado, Ruben [University of Maryland Baltimore County

2017-08-07

As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote-sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote-sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote-sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards for quantifying remote sensing device uncertainty for power performance testing consider uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device and are generally fixed, leading to climatic uncertainty values that apply to the entire measurement campaign. However, real-world experience and a consideration of the fundamentals of the measurement process have shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we describe the development of a new dynamic lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from a field measurement site to assess the ability of the framework to predict

A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newman, Jennifer, F.; Clifton, Andrew; Bonin, Timothy A.; Churchfield, Matthew J.

2017-03-24

As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards discuss uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device. However, real-world experience has shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we propose the development of a new lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from an operational wind farm to assess the ability of the framework to predict errors in lidar-measured wind speed.

Thermal conductance of heat transfer interfaces for conductively cooled superconducting magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, T.L.; Walters, J.D.; Fikse, T.H.

1996-01-01

Minimizing thermal resistances across interfaces is critical for efficient thermal performance of conductively cooled superconducting magnet systems. Thermal conductance measurements have been made for a flexible thermal coupling, designed to accommodate magnet-to-cryocooler and cryocooler-to-shield relative motion, and an interface incorporating Multilam designed as a sliding thermal connector for cryocoolers. Temperature changes were measured across each interface as a function of heat input. Thermal conductances have been calculated for each interface, and the impact of each interface on conductively cooled magnet systems will be discussed

Cooling the intact loop of primary heat transport system using shut down cooling system after events such as LOCA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Icleanu, D.L.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to model the Shutdown Cooling System operation for CANDU 6 NPP in case of LOCA accident, using Flowmaster calculation code by delimiting models and setting calculation assumptions and input data for hydraulic analysis, and and assumptions for the calculation and input data for calculating thermal performance check heat exchangers that are part of this system. The Flowmaster V7.8 code provides system engineers with a powerful tool to investigate pressure surge, pressure drop, flow rate, temperature and system response times - removing the uncertainty from fluid flow systems. Flowmaster is a one-dimensional thermal-hydraulic calculation code for dimensioning, analyzing and verifying the pipeline systems operation. Each component of Flowmaster is a mathematical model for an equipment that is included in a facility. Selected components are connected via nodes in order to form a network, which constitutes a computerized model of the system. Analyzing the parameters of the cooling system for all cooling processes considered it was found that the values obtained for thermal-hydraulic parameters, as well as the duration up to reaching specified limits fall within the design values of the system. This document is made up of an abstract and the slides of the presentation

A model for radionuclide transport in the Cooling Water System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kahook, S.D.

1992-08-01

A radionuclide transport model developed to assess radiological levels in the K-reactor Cooling Water System (CWS) in the event of an inadvertent process water (PW) leakage to the cooling water (CW) in the heat exchangers (HX) is described. During and following a process water leak, the radionuclide transport model determines the time-dependent release rates of radionuclide from the cooling water system to the environment via evaporation to the atmosphere and blow-down to the Savannah River. The developed model allows for delay times associated with the transport of the cooling water radioactivity through cooling water system components. Additionally, this model simulates the time-dependent behavior of radionuclides levels in various CWS components. The developed model is incorporated into the K-reactor Cooling Tower Activity (KCTA) code. KCTA allows the accident (heat exchanger leak rate) and the cooling tower blow-down and evaporation rates to be described as time-dependent functions. Thus, the postulated leak and the consequence of the assumed leak can be modelled realistically. This model is the first of three models to be ultimately assembled to form a comprehensive Liquid Pathway Activity System (LPAS). LPAS will offer integrated formation, transport, deposition, and release estimates for radionuclides formed in a SRS facility. Process water and river water modules are forthcoming as input and downstream components, respectively, for KCTA

Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Fielder

2018-06-01

Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

Proceedings: Cooling tower and advanced cooling systems conference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-02-01

This Cooling Tower and Advanced Cooling Systems Conference was held August 30 through September 1, 1994, in St. Petersburg, Florida. The conference was sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and hosted by Florida Power Corporation to bring together utility representatives, manufacturers, researchers, and consultants. Nineteen technical papers were presented in four sessions. These sessions were devoted to the following topics: cooling tower upgrades and retrofits, cooling tower performance, cooling tower fouling, and dry and hybrid systems. On the final day, panel discussions addressed current issues in cooling tower operation and maintenance as well as research and technology needs for power plant cooling. More than 100 people attended the conference. This report contains the technical papers presented at the conference. Of the 19 papers, five concern cooling tower upgrades and retrofits, five to cooling tower performance, four discuss cooling tower fouling, and five describe dry and hybrid cooling systems. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database

Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

2017-01-01

The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

Conceptual design and simulation investigation of an electronic cooling device powered by hot electrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Su, Guozhen; Zhang, Yanchao; Cai, Ling; Su, Shanhe; Chen, Jincan

2015-01-01

Most electronic cooling devices are powered by an external bias applied between the cold and the hot reservoirs. Here we propose a new concept of electronic cooling, in which cooling is achieved by using a reservoir of hot electrons as the power source. The cooling device incorporates two energy filters with the Lorentzian transmission function to respectively select low- and high-energy electrons for transport. Based on the proposed model, we analyze the performances of the device varying with the resonant levels and half widths of two energy filters and establish the optimal configuration of the cooling device. It is believed that such a novel device may be practically used in some nano-energy fields. - Highlights: • A new electronic cooling device powered by hot electrons is proposed. • Two energy filters are employed to select the electrons for transport. • The effects of the resonant levels and half widths of two filters are discussed. • The maximum cooling power and coefficient of performance are calculated. • The optimal configuration of the cooling device is determined.

Socializing Identity Through Practice: A Mixed Methods Approach to Family Medicine Resident Perspectives on Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Ledford, Christy J W; Cafferty, Lauren A; Seehusen, Dean A

2015-01-01

Uncertainty is a central theme in the practice of medicine and particularly primary care. This study explored how family medicine resident physicians react to uncertainty in their practice. This study incorporated a two-phase mixed methods approach, including semi-structured personal interviews (n=21) and longitudinal self-report surveys (n=21) with family medicine residents. Qualitative analysis showed that though residents described uncertainty as an implicit part of their identity, they still developed tactics to minimize or manage uncertainty in their practice. Residents described increasing comfort with uncertainty the longer they practiced and anticipated that growth continuing throughout their careers. Quantitative surveys showed that reactions to uncertainty were more positive over time; however, the difference was not statistically significant. Qualitative and quantitative results show that as family medicine residents practice medicine their perception of uncertainty changes. To reduce uncertainty, residents use relational information-seeking strategies. From a broader view of practice, residents describe uncertainty neutrally, asserting that uncertainty is simply part of the practice of family medicine.

Design of the cooling systems for the multiplicity and vertex detector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernardin, J.D.; Cunningham, R.

1997-11-01

The PHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) at Brookhaven National Laboratory is being constructed to investigate a phase of matter termed the quark-gluon plasma. The plasma will be produced through the collision of two heavy ions. The multiplicity and vertex detector (MVD) located in the center of PHENIX will characterize the events, determine the collision point, and act as a central trigger. This report presents the final mechanical designs of the cooling systems for the Multiplicity and Vertex Detector (MVD). In particular, the design procedure and layouts are discussed for two different air cooling systems for the multichip modules and MVD enclosure, and a liquid cooling system for the low dropout voltage regulators. First of all, experimental prototype cooling system test results used to drive the final mechanical designs are summarized and discussed. Next, the cooling system requirements and design calculation for the various subsystem components are presented along with detailed lists of supply vendors, components, and costs. Finally, safety measures incorporated in the final mechanical design and operation procedures for each of the subsystems are detailed

Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, H. K.; Krueger, T.; Freer, J. E.; Westerberg, I.

2013-12-01

There is a pressing need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in hydrological data, to understand its information content. Many studies have discussed how to incorporate uncertainty information into model calibration and implementation, and shown how model results can be biased if uncertainty is not appropriately characterised. However, it is not always possible (for example due to financial or time constraints) to make detailed studies of uncertainty for every research study. Instead, we propose that the hydrological community could benefit greatly from sharing information on likely uncertainty characteristics and the main factors that control the resulting magnitude. In this presentation, we review the current knowledge of uncertainty for a number of key hydrological variables: rainfall, flow and water quality (suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus). We collated information on the specifics of the data measurement (data type, temporal and spatial resolution), error characteristics measured (e.g. standard error, confidence bounds) and error magnitude. Our results were primarily split by data type. Rainfall uncertainty was controlled most strongly by spatial scale, flow uncertainty was controlled by flow state (low, high) and gauging method. Water quality presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitude exceeded 40%. We discuss some of the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for guidance on typical error magnitudes, in particular when doing comparative/regionalisation and multi-objective analysis. Increased sharing of data, comparisons between multiple catchments, and storage in national/international databases can mean that data-users are far removed from data collection, but require good uncertainty information to reduce bias in comparisons or catchment regionalisation studies. Recently it has

Uncertainty Assessments in Fast Neutron Activation Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

W. D. James; R. Zeisler

2000-01-01

Fast neutron activation analysis (FNAA) carried out with the use of small accelerator-based neutron generators is routinely used for major/minor element determinations in industry, mineral and petroleum exploration, and to some extent in research. While the method shares many of the operational procedures and therefore errors inherent to conventional thermal neutron activation analysis, its unique implementation gives rise to additional specific concerns that can result in errors or increased uncertainties of measured quantities. The authors were involved in a recent effort to evaluate irreversible incorporation of oxygen into a standard reference material (SRM) by direct measurement of oxygen by FNAA. That project required determination of oxygen in bottles of the SRM stored in varying environmental conditions and a comparison of the results. We recognized the need to accurately describe the total uncertainty of the measurements to accurately characterize any differences in the resulting average concentrations. It is our intent here to discuss the breadth of potential parameters that have the potential to contribute to the random and nonrandom errors of the method and provide estimates of the magnitude of uncertainty introduced. In addition, we will discuss the steps taken in this recent FNAA project to control quality, assess the uncertainty of the measurements, and evaluate results based on the statistical reproducibility

Characterizing spatial uncertainty when integrating social data in conservation planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Lechner, A M; Raymond, C M; Adams, V M; Polyakov, M; Gordon, A; Rhodes, J R; Mills, M; Stein, A; Ives, C D; Lefroy, E C

2014-12-01

Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Multi data reservior history matching and uncertainty quantification framework

KAUST Repository

Katterbauer, Klemens

2015-11-26

A multi-data reservoir history matching and uncertainty quantification framework is provided. The framework can utilize multiple data sets such as production, seismic, electromagnetic, gravimetric and surface deformation data for improving the history matching process. The framework can consist of a geological model that is interfaced with a reservoir simulator. The reservoir simulator can interface with seismic, electromagnetic, gravimetric and surface deformation modules to predict the corresponding observations. The observations can then be incorporated into a recursive filter that subsequently updates the model state and parameters distributions, providing a general framework to quantify and eventually reduce with the data, uncertainty in the estimated reservoir state and parameters.

Neutronics experiments for uncertainty assessment of tritium breeding in HCPB and HCLL blanket mock-ups irradiated with 14 MeV neutrons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Batistoni, P.; Angelone, M.; Pillon, M.; Villari, R.; Fischer, U.; Klix, A.; Leichtle, D.; Kodeli, I.; Pohorecki, W.

2012-01-01

Two neutronics experiments have been carried out at 14 MeV neutron sources on mock-ups of the helium cooled pebble bed (HCBP) and the helium cooled lithium lead (HCLL) variants of ITER test blanket modules (TBMs). These experiments have provided an experimental validation of the calculations of the tritium production rate (TPR) in the two blanket concepts and an assessment of the uncertainties due to the uncertainties on nuclear data. This paper provides a brief summary of the HCPB experiment and then focuses in particular on the final results of the HCLL experiment. The TPR has been measured in the HCLL mock-up irradiated for long times at the Frascati 14 MeV Neutron Generator (FNG). Redundant and well-assessed experimental techniques have been used to measure the TPR by different teams for inter-comparison. Measurements of the neutron and gamma-ray spectra have also been performed. The analysis of the experiment, carried out by the MCNP code with FENDL-2.1 and JEFF-3.1.1 nuclear data libraries, and also including sensitivity/uncertainty analysis, shows good agreement between measurements and calculations, within the total uncertainty of 5.9% at 1σ level. (paper)

Temperature profiles of different cooling methods in porcine pancreas procurement.

Science.gov (United States)

Weegman, Bradley P; Suszynski, Thomas M; Scott, William E; Ferrer Fábrega, Joana; Avgoustiniatos, Efstathios S; Anazawa, Takayuki; O'Brien, Timothy D; Rizzari, Michael D; Karatzas, Theodore; Jie, Tun; Sutherland, David E R; Hering, Bernhard J; Papas, Klearchos K

2014-01-01

Porcine islet xenotransplantation is a promising alternative to human islet allotransplantation. Porcine pancreas cooling needs to be optimized to reduce the warm ischemia time (WIT) following donation after cardiac death, which is associated with poorer islet isolation outcomes. This study examines the effect of four different cooling Methods on core porcine pancreas temperature (n = 24) and histopathology (n = 16). All Methods involved surface cooling with crushed ice and chilled irrigation. Method A, which is the standard for porcine pancreas procurement, used only surface cooling. Method B involved an intravascular flush with cold solution through the pancreas arterial system. Method C involved an intraductal infusion with cold solution through the major pancreatic duct, and Method D combined all three cooling Methods. Surface cooling alone (Method A) gradually decreased core pancreas temperature to <10 °C after 30 min. Using an intravascular flush (Method B) improved cooling during the entire duration of procurement, but incorporating an intraductal infusion (Method C) rapidly reduced core temperature 15-20 °C within the first 2 min of cooling. Combining all methods (Method D) was the most effective at rapidly reducing temperature and providing sustained cooling throughout the duration of procurement, although the recorded WIT was not different between Methods (P = 0.36). Histological scores were different between the cooling Methods (P = 0.02) and the worst with Method A. There were differences in histological scores between Methods A and C (P = 0.02) and Methods A and D (P = 0.02), but not between Methods C and D (P = 0.95), which may highlight the importance of early cooling using an intraductal infusion. In conclusion, surface cooling alone cannot rapidly cool large (porcine or human) pancreata. Additional cooling with an intravascular flush and intraductal infusion results in improved core porcine pancreas temperature profiles during procurement and

Future needs for dry or peak shaved dry/wet cooling and significance to nuclear power plants. Final report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clukey, H.V.; McNelly, M.J.; Mitchell, R.C.

1976-02-01

U.S. requirements for uncommitted nuclear installations in water scarce areas that might require dry cooling tower systems are minimal through the year 2000 (6 to 23 GWe). In these areas it appears that peak-shaved dry/wet cooling systems are more attractive than all-dry tower cooling unless water costs were to approach the high level of several cents per gallon. The differential cooling system evaluated cost of peak-shaved dry/wet cooling systems above wet towers is typically $20 to $30/kWe for steam turbines; whereas, dry towers can represent an incremental burden of as much as $80/kWe. Gas turbine (Brayton Cycle) systems show similar benefits from an evaporative heat sink to those for steam turbine cycles--lower cooling system evaluated costs for peak-shaved dry/wet cooling systems than for conventional wet towers. These cooling system cost differentials do not reflect total costs for Brayton Cycle gas turbine plants. Together these added costs and uncertainties may substantially exceed the dollar incentives available for development of the Brayton Cycle for power generation needs for water deficient sites

The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

1994-01-01

All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

Corporate liquidity and dividend policy under uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Koussis, Nicos; Martzoukos, Spiros H.; Trigeorgis, Lenos

2016-01-01

We examine optimal liquidity (retained earnings) and dividend choice incorporating debt financing with risk of default and bankruptcy costs as well as growth options under revenue uncertainty. We revisit the conditions for dividend policy irrelevancy and the broader role of retained earnings and dividends. Retained earnings have a net positive impact on firm value in the presence of growth options, high external financing costs and low default risk. High levels of retained earnings enhance de...

Estimating Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Amante, C.; Mesick, S.

2017-12-01

Integrated bathymetric-topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) are representations of the Earth's solid surface and are fundamental to the modeling of coastal processes, including tsunami, storm surge, and sea-level rise inundation. Deviations in elevation values from the actual seabed or land surface constitute errors in DEMs, which originate from numerous sources, including: (i) the source elevation measurements (e.g., multibeam sonar, lidar), (ii) the interpolative gridding technique (e.g., spline, kriging) used to estimate elevations in areas unconstrained by source measurements, and (iii) the datum transformation used to convert bathymetric and topographic data to common vertical reference systems. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the errors from these sources are typically unknown, and the lack of knowledge regarding these errors represents the vertical uncertainty in the DEM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has developed DEMs for more than 200 coastal communities. This study presents a methodology developed at NOAA NCEI to derive accompanying uncertainty surfaces that estimate DEM errors at the individual cell-level. The development of high-resolution (1/9th arc-second), integrated bathymetric-topographic DEMs along the southwest coast of Florida serves as the case study for deriving uncertainty surfaces. The estimated uncertainty can then be propagated into the modeling of coastal processes that utilize DEMs. Incorporating the uncertainty produces more reliable modeling results, and in turn, better-informed coastal management decisions.

Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kevin Coppersmith

2001-01-01

The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository

Microbial analysis of meatballs cooled with vacuum and conventional cooling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozturk, Hande Mutlu; Ozturk, Harun Kemal; Koçar, Gunnur

2017-08-01

Vacuum cooling is a rapid evaporative cooling technique and can be used for pre-cooling of leafy vegetables, mushroom, bakery, fishery, sauces, cooked food, meat and particulate foods. The aim of this study was to apply the vacuum cooling and the conventional cooling techniques for the cooling of the meatball and to show the vacuum pressure effect on the cooling time, the temperature decrease and microbial growth rate. The results of the vacuum cooling and the conventional cooling (cooling in the refrigerator) were compared with each other for different temperatures. The study shows that the conventional cooling was much slower than the vacuum cooling. Moreover, the microbial growth rate of the vacuum cooling was extremely low compared with the conventional cooling. Thus, the lowest microbial growth occurred at 0.7 kPa and the highest microbial growth was observed at 1.5 kPa for the vacuum cooling. The mass loss ratio for the conventional cooling and vacuum cooling was about 5 and 9% respectively.

Medium-size high-temperature gas-cooled reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peinado, C.O.; Koutz, S.L.

1980-08-01

This report summarizes high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) experience for the 40-MW(e) Peach Bottom Nuclear Generating Station of Philadelphia Electric Company and the 330-MW(e) Fort St. Vrain Nuclear Generating Station of the Public Service Company of Colorado. Both reactors are graphite moderated and helium cooled, operating at approx. 760 0 C (1400 0 F) and using the uranium/thorium fuel cycle. The plants have demonstrated the inherent safety characteristics, the low activation of components, and the high efficiency associated with the HTGR concept. This experience has been translated into the conceptual design of a medium-sized 1170-MW(t) HTGR for generation of 450 MW of electric power. The concept incorporates inherent HTGR safety characteristics [a multiply redundant prestressed concrete reactor vessel (PCRV), a graphite core, and an inert single-phase coolant] and engineered safety features

Cooling techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moeller, S.P.

1994-01-01

After an introduction to the general concepts of cooling of charged particle beams, some specific cooling methods are discussed, namely stochastic, electron and laser cooling. The treatment concentrates on the physical ideas of the cooling methods and only very crude derivations of cooling times are given. At the end three other proposed cooling schemes are briefly discussed. (orig.)

Approach and methods to evaluate the uncertainty in system thermalhydraulic calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

D'Auria, F.

2004-01-01

The evaluation of uncertainty constitutes the necessary supplement of Best Estimate (BE) calculations performed to understand accident scenarios in water cooled nuclear reactors. The needs come from the imperfection of computational tools on the one side and from the interest in using such tool to get more precise evaluation of safety margins. In the present paper the approaches to uncertainty are outlined and the CIAU (Code with capability of Internal Assessment of Uncertainty) method proposed by the University of Pisa is described including ideas at the basis and results from applications. An activity in progress at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is considered. Two approaches are distinguished that are characterized as 'propagation of code input uncertainty' and 'propagation of code output errors'. For both methods, the thermal-hydraulic code is at the centre of the process of uncertainty evaluation: in the former case the code itself is adopted to compute the error bands and to propagate the input errors, in the latter case the errors in code application to relevant measurements are used to derive the error bands. The CIAU method exploits the idea of the 'status approach' for identifying the thermalhydraulic conditions of an accident in any Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). Errors in predicting such status are derived from the comparison between predicted and measured quantities and, in the stage of the application of the method, are used to compute the uncertainty. (author)

Mapping Soil Transmitted Helminths and Schistosomiasis under Uncertainty: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Evidence.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrea L Araujo Navas

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Spatial modelling of STH and schistosomiasis epidemiology is now commonplace. Spatial epidemiological studies help inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration; however, limited attention has been given to propagated uncertainties, their interpretation, and consequences for the mapped values. Using currently published literature on the spatial epidemiology of helminth infections we identified: (1 the main uncertainty sources, their definition and quantification and (2 how uncertainty is informative for STH programme managers and scientists working in this domain.We performed a systematic literature search using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA protocol. We searched Web of Knowledge and PubMed using a combination of uncertainty, geographic and disease terms. A total of 73 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Only 9% of the studies did not address any element of uncertainty, while 91% of studies quantified uncertainty in the predicted morbidity indicators and 23% of studies mapped it. In addition, 57% of the studies quantified uncertainty in the regression coefficients but only 7% incorporated it in the regression response variable (morbidity indicator. Fifty percent of the studies discussed uncertainty in the covariates but did not quantify it. Uncertainty was mostly defined as precision, and quantified using credible intervals by means of Bayesian approaches.None of the studies considered adequately all sources of uncertainties. We highlighted the need for uncertainty in the morbidity indicator and predictor variable to be incorporated into the modelling framework. Study design and spatial support require further attention and uncertainty associated with Earth observation data should be quantified. Finally, more attention should be given to mapping and interpreting

ESFR core optimization and uncertainty studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rineiski, A.; Vezzoni, B.; Zhang, D.; Marchetti, M.; Gabrielli, F.; Maschek, W.; Chen, X.-N.; Buiron, L.; Krepel, J.; Sun, K.; Mikityuk, K.; Polidoro, F.; Rochman, D.; Koning, A.J.; DaCruz, D.F.; Tsige-Tamirat, H.; Sunderland, R.

2015-01-01

In the European Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) project supported by EURATOM in 2008-2012, a concept for a large 3600 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor design was investigated. In particular, reference core designs with oxide and carbide fuel were optimized to improve their safety parameters. Uncertainties in these parameters were evaluated for the oxide option. Core modifications were performed first to reduce the sodium void reactivity effect. Introduction of a large sodium plenum with an absorber layer above the core and a lower axial fertile blanket improve the total sodium void effect appreciably, bringing it close to zero for a core with fresh fuel, in line with results obtained worldwide, while not influencing substantially other core physics parameters. Therefore an optimized configuration, CONF2, with a sodium plenum and a lower blanket was established first and used as a basis for further studies in view of deterioration of safety parameters during reactor operation. Further options to study were an inner fertile blanket, introduction of moderator pins, a smaller core height, special designs for pins, such as 'empty' pins, and subassemblies. These special designs were proposed to facilitate melted fuel relocation in order to avoid core re-criticality under severe accident conditions. In the paper further CONF2 modifications are compared in terms of safety and fuel balance. They may bring further improvements in safety, but their accurate assessment requires additional studies, including transient analyses. Uncertainty studies were performed by employing a so-called Total Monte-Carlo method, for which a large number of nuclear data files is produced for single isotopes and then used in Monte-Carlo calculations. The uncertainties for the criticality, sodium void and Doppler effects, effective delayed neutron fraction due to uncertainties in basic nuclear data were assessed for an ESFR core. They prove applicability of the available nuclear data for ESFR

Use of 2D/3D data for peak cladding temperature uncertainty studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boyack, B.E.

1988-01-01

In August 1988, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approved the final version of a revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling systems. The revised rule allows emergency core cooling system analysis based on best-estimate methods, provided uncertainties in the prediction of prescribed acceptance limits are quantified and reported. To support the revised rule, the NRC developed the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation methodology. Data from the 2D/3D program have been used in a demonstration of the CSAU methodology in two ways. First, the data were used to identify and quantify biases that are related to the implementation of selected correlations and models in the thermal-hydraulic systems code TRAC-PF1/MOD1 as it is used to calculate the demonstration transient, a large-break loss-of-coolant accident. Second, the data were used in a supportive role to provide insight into the accuracy of code calculations and to confirm conclusions that are drawn regarding specific CSAU studies. Examples are provided illustrating each of these two uses of 2D/3D data. 9 refs., 7 figs

An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore [Department of Energy and Environment, Division of Heat and Power Technology, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Stroemberg, Ann-Brith [Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Chalmers Science Park, SE-412 88 Gothenburg (Sweden); Patriksson, Michael [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology and Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Gothenburg, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)

2009-02-15

Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

An optimization methodology for identifying robust process integration investments under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svensson, Elin; Berntsson, Thore; Stroemberg, Ann-Brith; Patriksson, Michael

2009-01-01

Uncertainties in future energy prices and policies strongly affect decisions on investments in process integration measures in industry. In this paper, we present a five-step methodology for the identification of robust investment alternatives incorporating explicitly such uncertainties in the optimization model. Methods for optimization under uncertainty (or, stochastic programming) are thus combined with a deep understanding of process integration and process technology in order to achieve a framework for decision-making concerning the investment planning of process integration measures under uncertainty. The proposed methodology enables the optimization of investments in energy efficiency with respect to their net present value or an environmental objective. In particular, as a result of the optimization approach, complex investment alternatives, allowing for combinations of energy efficiency measures, can be analyzed. Uncertainties as well as time-dependent parameters, such as energy prices and policies, are modelled using a scenario-based approach, enabling the identification of robust investment solutions. The methodology is primarily an aid for decision-makers in industry, but it will also provide insight for policy-makers into how uncertainties regarding future price levels and policy instruments affect the decisions on investments in energy efficiency measures. (author)

On investment, uncertainty, and strategic interaction with applications in energy markets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murto, P.

2003-01-01

The thesis presents dynamic models on investment under uncertainty with the focus on strategic interaction and energy market applications. The uncertainty is modelled using stochastic processes as state variables. The specific questions analyzed include the effect of technological and revenue related uncertainties on the optimal timing of investment, the irreversibility in the choice between alternative investment projects with different degrees of uncertainty, and the effect of strategic interaction on the initiating of discrete investment projects, on the abandonment of a project, and on incremental capacity investments. The main methodological feature is the incorporation of game theoretic concepts in the theory of investment. It is argued that such an approach is often desirable in terms of real applications, because many industries are characterized by both uncertainty and strategic interaction between the firms. Besides extending the theory of investment, this line of work may be seen as an extension of the theory of industrial organization towards the direction that views market stability as one of the factors explaining rational behaviour of the firms. (orig.)

Renewable heating and cooling in Norway. Potential in 2020 and 2030; Potensial for fornybar varme og kjoeling 2020 og 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Havskjold, Monica; Lisleboe, Ole; Langseth, Benedicte; Ingeberg, Kjetil

2011-03-15

This study projects the potential for renewable heat and cooling in Norway in different scenarios. The modeling approach is threefold. First, with a panel data analysis approach we forecast the agglomeration of different types of buildings. Second, we combine this with projected energy efficiency codes in buildings to estimate the total demand for heating and cooling, i.e. the technical potential for renewable heating and cooling. Third, we apply detailed cost data for available heating technologies to calculate the market potential for renewable heat in Norway in 2020 and 2030. Our results indicate a declining market for heating and cooling from 45 TWh in 2020 to 40 TWh in 2030. However, consumer behavior and development in the building mass are both significant uncertainties in these estimates. Both factors could separately contribute to increase the heat demand by 5 TWh. The market potential for renewable heat is estimated to increase from 22 in 2020 to 23 TWh in 2030. The uncertainty in the estimates of the bio energy market potential is substantial. However, the base estimate is 11 TWh in 2020 as well as in 2030. It is worth nothing that the market potentials in households are particularly sensitive to changes in investment costs, fuel prices and the actual time of usage. (Author)

Study of reactivity feedbacks in a sodium-cooled fast reactor: new methodology based on perturbation theory for evaluating neutronic uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bouret, Cyrille

2014-01-01

Fast reactors (FR) can give value to the plutonium produced by the existing light water reactors and allow the transmutation of a significant part of the final nuclear waste. These features offer industrial prospects for this technology and new projects are currently studied in the world such as ASTRID prototype in France. Future FRs will have also to satisfy new requirements in terms of competitiveness, safety and reliability. In this context, the new core concept envisaged for ASTRID incorporate innovative features that improve the safety of the reactor in case of accident. The proposed design achieves a sodium voiding effect close to zero: it includes a fertile plate in the middle of the core and a sodium plenum in the upper part in order to increase the neutron leakage in case of sodium voiding. This heterogeneous design represents a challenge for the calculation tools and methods used so far to evaluate the neutronic parameters in traditional homogeneous cores. These methods have been improved over the thesis to rigorously treat the neutron streaming, especially at the mediums interfaces. These enhancements have consisted in the development of a specific analysis methodology based on perturbation theory and using a modern three dimensional Sn transport solver. This work has allowed on the one hand, to reduce the bias on static neutronic parameters in comparison with Monte Carlo methods, and, on the other hand, to obtain more accurate spatial distributions of neutronic effects including the reactivity feedback coefficients used for transient analysis. The analysis of the core behavior during transients has also allowed estimating the impact of reactivity feedback coefficients assessment improvements. In conjunction with this work, innovative methods based on the evaluation of local sensitivities coefficients have been proposed to assess the uncertainties associated to local reactivity effects. These uncertainties include the correlations between the different

Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties in fuel cycle calculations using Monte-Carlo technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diez, C.J.; Cabellos, O.; Martinez, J.S.

2011-01-01

Nowadays, the knowledge of uncertainty propagation in depletion calculations is a critical issue because of the safety and economical performance of fuel cycles. Response magnitudes such as decay heat, radiotoxicity and isotopic inventory and their uncertainties should be known to handle spent fuel in present fuel cycles (e.g. high burnup fuel programme) and furthermore in new fuel cycles designs (e.g. fast breeder reactors and ADS). To deal with this task, there are different error propagation techniques, deterministic (adjoint/forward sensitivity analysis) and stochastic (Monte-Carlo technique) to evaluate the error in response magnitudes due to nuclear data uncertainties. In our previous works, cross-section uncertainties were propagated using a Monte-Carlo technique to calculate the uncertainty of response magnitudes such as decay heat and neutron emission. Also, the propagation of decay data, fission yield and cross-section uncertainties was performed, but only isotopic composition was the response magnitude calculated. Following the previous technique, the nuclear data uncertainties are taken into account and propagated to response magnitudes, decay heat and radiotoxicity. These uncertainties are assessed during cooling time. To evaluate this Monte-Carlo technique, two different applications are performed. First, a fission pulse decay heat calculation is carried out to check the Monte-Carlo technique, using decay data and fission yields uncertainties. Then, the results, experimental data and reference calculation (JEFF Report20), are compared. Second, we assess the impact of basic nuclear data (activation cross-section, decay data and fission yields) uncertainties on relevant fuel cycle parameters (decay heat and radiotoxicity) for a conceptual design of a modular European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT) fuel cycle. After identifying which time steps have higher uncertainties, an assessment of which uncertainties have more relevance is performed

The ends of uncertainty: Air quality science and planning in Central California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fine, James [Univ. of California, San Francisco, CA (United States)

2003-09-01

Air quality planning in Central California is complicated and controversial despite millions of dollars invested to improve scientific understanding. This research describes and critiques the use of photochemical air quality simulation modeling studies in planning to attain standards for ground-level ozone in the San Francisco Bay Area and the San Joaquin Valley during the 1990's. Data are gathered through documents and interviews with planners, modelers, and policy-makers at public agencies and with representatives from the regulated and environmental communities. Interactions amongst organizations are diagramed to identify significant nodes of interaction. Dominant policy coalitions are described through narratives distinguished by their uses of and responses to uncertainty, their exposures to risks, and their responses to the principles of conservatism, civil duty, and caution. Policy narratives are delineated using aggregated respondent statements to describe and understand advocacy coalitions. I found that models impacted the planning process significantly, but were used not purely for their scientific capabilities. Modeling results provided justification for decisions based on other constraints and political considerations. Uncertainties were utilized opportunistically by stakeholders instead of managed explicitly. Ultimately, the process supported the partisan views of those in control of the modeling. Based on these findings, as well as a review of model uncertainty analysis capabilities, I recommend modifying the planning process to allow for the development and incorporation of uncertainty information, while addressing the need for inclusive and meaningful public participation. By documenting an actual air quality planning process these findings provide insights about the potential for using new scientific information and understanding to achieve environmental goals, most notably the analysis of uncertainties in modeling applications. Concurrently

Uncertainty in temperature-based determination of time of death

Science.gov (United States)

Weiser, Martin; Erdmann, Bodo; Schenkl, Sebastian; Muggenthaler, Holger; Hubig, Michael; Mall, Gita; Zachow, Stefan

2018-03-01

Temperature-based estimation of time of death (ToD) can be performed either with the help of simple phenomenological models of corpse cooling or with detailed mechanistic (thermodynamic) heat transfer models. The latter are much more complex, but allow a higher accuracy of ToD estimation as in principle all relevant cooling mechanisms can be taken into account. The potentially higher accuracy depends on the accuracy of tissue and environmental parameters as well as on the geometric resolution. We investigate the impact of parameter variations and geometry representation on the estimated ToD. For this, numerical simulation of analytic heat transport models is performed on a highly detailed 3D corpse model, that has been segmented and geometrically reconstructed from a computed tomography (CT) data set, differentiating various organs and tissue types. From that and prior information available on thermal parameters and their variability, we identify the most crucial parameters to measure or estimate, and obtain an a priori uncertainty quantification for the ToD.

Fossil fuel and biomass burning effect on climate - heating or cooling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaufman, Y.J.; Fraser, R.S.; Mahoney, R.L. (NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (USA))

1991-06-01

Emission from burning of fossil fuels and biomass (associated with deforestation) generates a radiative forcing on the atmosphere and a possible climate change. Emitted trace gases heat the atmosphere through their greenhouse effect, while particulates formed from emitted SO{sub 2} cause cooling by increasing cloud albedos through alteration of droplet size distributions. This paper reviews the characteristics of the cooling effect and applies Twomey's theory to check whether the radiative balance favours heating or cooling for the cases of fossil fuel and biomass burning. It is also shown that although coal and oil emit 120 times as many CO{sub 2} molecules as SO{sub 2} molecules, each SO{sub 2} molecule is 50-1100 times more effective in cooling the atmosphere (through the effect of aerosol particles on cloud albedo) than a CO{sub 2} molecule is in heating it. Note that this ratio accounts for the large difference in the aerosol (3-10 days) and CO{sub 2} (7-100 years) lifetimes. It is concluded, that the cooling effect from coal and oil burning may presently range from 0.4 to 8 times the heating effect. Within this large uncertainty, it is presently more likely that fossil fuel burning causes cooling of the atmosphere rather than heating. Biomass burning associated with deforestation, on the other hand, is more likely to cause heating of the atmosphere than cooling since its aerosol cooling effect is only half that from fossil fuel burning and its heating effect is twice as large. Future increases in coal and oil burning, and the resultant increase in concentration of cloud condensation nuclei, may saturate the cooling effect, allowing the heating effect to dominate. For a doubling in the CO{sub 2} concentration due to fossil fuel burning, the cooling effect is expected to be 0.1 to 0.3 of the heating effect. 75 refs., 8 tabs.

Quantification of water resources uncertainties in the Luvuvhu sub-basin of the Limpopo river basin

Science.gov (United States)

Oosthuizen, N.; Hughes, D.; Kapangaziwiri, E.; Mwenge Kahinda, J.; Mvandaba, V.

2018-06-01

In the absence of historical observed data, models are generally used to describe the different hydrological processes and generate data and information that will inform management and policy decision making. Ideally, any hydrological model should be based on a sound conceptual understanding of the processes in the basin and be backed by quantitative information for the parameterization of the model. However, these data are often inadequate in many sub-basins, necessitating the incorporation of the uncertainty related to the estimation process. This paper reports on the impact of the uncertainty related to the parameterization of the Pitman monthly model and water use data on the estimates of the water resources of the Luvuvhu, a sub-basin of the Limpopo river basin. The study reviews existing information sources associated with the quantification of water balance components and gives an update of water resources of the sub-basin. The flows generated by the model at the outlet of the basin were between 44.03 Mm3 and 45.48 Mm3 per month when incorporating +20% uncertainty to the main physical runoff generating parameters. The total predictive uncertainty of the model increased when water use data such as small farm and large reservoirs and irrigation were included. The dam capacity data was considered at an average of 62% uncertainty mainly as a result of the large differences between the available information in the national water resources database and that digitised from satellite imagery. Water used by irrigated crops was estimated with an average of about 50% uncertainty. The mean simulated monthly flows were between 38.57 Mm3 and 54.83 Mm3 after the water use uncertainty was added. However, it is expected that the uncertainty could be reduced by using higher resolution remote sensing imagery.

Computer simulation with TRNSYS for a mobile refrigeration system incorporating a phase change thermal storage unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Ming; Saman, Wasim; Bruno, Frank

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A mobile refrigeration system incorporating phase change thermal storage was simulated using TRNSYS. • A TRNSYS component of a phase change thermal storage unit was created and linked to other components from TRNSYS library. • The temperature in the refrigerated space can be predicted using this TRNSYS model under various conditions. • A mobile refrigeration system incorporating PCM and an off-peak electric driven refrigeration unit is feasible. • The phase change material with the lowest melting temperature should be selected. - Abstract: This paper presents a new TRNSYS model of a refrigeration system incorporating phase change material (PCM) for mobile transport. The PCTSU is charged by an off-vehicle refrigeration unit and the PCM provides cooling when discharging and the cooling released is utilized to cool down the refrigerated space. The advantage of this refrigeration system compared to a conventional system is that it consumes less energy and produces significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions. A refrigeration system for a typical refrigerated van is modelled and simulations are performed with climatic data from four different locations. The main components of the TRNSYS model are Type 88 (cooling load estimation) and Type 300 (new PCTSU component), accompanied by other additional components. The results show that in order to maintain the temperature of the products at −18 °C for 10 h, a total of 250 kg and 390 kg of PCM are required for no door opening and 20 door openings during the transportation, respectively. In addition, a parametric study is carried out to evaluate the effects of location, size of the refrigerated space, number of door openings and melting temperature of the PCM on the thermal performance

Gaussian process regression for sensor networks under localization uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Jadaliha, M.; Xu, Yunfei; Choi, Jongeun; Johnson, N.S.; Li, Weiming

2013-01-01

In this paper, we formulate Gaussian process regression with observations under the localization uncertainty due to the resource-constrained sensor networks. In our formulation, effects of observations, measurement noise, localization uncertainty, and prior distributions are all correctly incorporated in the posterior predictive statistics. The analytically intractable posterior predictive statistics are proposed to be approximated by two techniques, viz., Monte Carlo sampling and Laplace's method. Such approximation techniques have been carefully tailored to our problems and their approximation error and complexity are analyzed. Simulation study demonstrates that the proposed approaches perform much better than approaches without considering the localization uncertainty properly. Finally, we have applied the proposed approaches on the experimentally collected real data from a dye concentration field over a section of a river and a temperature field of an outdoor swimming pool to provide proof of concept tests and evaluate the proposed schemes in real situations. In both simulation and experimental results, the proposed methods outperform the quick-and-dirty solutions often used in practice.

Reducing the sensitivity of IMPT treatment plans to setup errors and range uncertainties via probabilistic treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unkelbach, Jan; Bortfeld, Thomas; Martin, Benjamin C.; Soukup, Martin

2009-01-01

Treatment plans optimized for intensity modulated proton therapy (IMPT) may be very sensitive to setup errors and range uncertainties. If these errors are not accounted for during treatment planning, the dose distribution realized in the patient may by strongly degraded compared to the planned dose distribution. The authors implemented the probabilistic approach to incorporate uncertainties directly into the optimization of an intensity modulated treatment plan. Following this approach, the dose distribution depends on a set of random variables which parameterize the uncertainty, as does the objective function used to optimize the treatment plan. The authors optimize the expected value of the objective function. They investigate IMPT treatment planning regarding range uncertainties and setup errors. They demonstrate that incorporating these uncertainties into the optimization yields qualitatively different treatment plans compared to conventional plans which do not account for uncertainty. The sensitivity of an IMPT plan depends on the dose contributions of individual beam directions. Roughly speaking, steep dose gradients in beam direction make treatment plans sensitive to range errors. Steep lateral dose gradients make plans sensitive to setup errors. More robust treatment plans are obtained by redistributing dose among different beam directions. This can be achieved by the probabilistic approach. In contrast, the safety margin approach as widely applied in photon therapy fails in IMPT and is neither suitable for handling range variations nor setup errors.

Atlas-based segmentation technique incorporating inter-observer delineation uncertainty for whole breast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bell, L R; Pogson, E M; Metcalfe, P; Holloway, L; Dowling, J A

2017-01-01

Accurate, efficient auto-segmentation methods are essential for the clinical efficacy of adaptive radiotherapy delivered with highly conformal techniques. Current atlas based auto-segmentation techniques are adequate in this respect, however fail to account for inter-observer variation. An atlas-based segmentation method that incorporates inter-observer variation is proposed. This method is validated for a whole breast radiotherapy cohort containing 28 CT datasets with CTVs delineated by eight observers. To optimise atlas accuracy, the cohort was divided into categories by mean body mass index and laterality, with atlas’ generated for each in a leave-one-out approach. Observer CTVs were merged and thresholded to generate an auto-segmentation model representing both inter-observer and inter-patient differences. For each category, the atlas was registered to the left-out dataset to enable propagation of the auto-segmentation from atlas space. Auto-segmentation time was recorded. The segmentation was compared to the gold-standard contour using the dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and mean absolute surface distance (MASD). Comparison with the smallest and largest CTV was also made. This atlas-based auto-segmentation method incorporating inter-observer variation was shown to be efficient (<4min) and accurate for whole breast radiotherapy, with good agreement (DSC>0.7, MASD <9.3mm) between the auto-segmented contours and CTV volumes. (paper)

Comparing Social Stories™ to Cool versus Not Cool

Science.gov (United States)

Leaf, Justin B.; Mitchell, Erin; Townley-Cochran, Donna; McEachin, John; Taubman, Mitchell; Leaf, Ronald

2016-01-01

In this study we compared the cool versus not cool procedure to Social Stories™ for teaching various social behaviors to one individual diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. The researchers randomly assigned three social skills to the cool versus not cool procedure and three social skills to the Social Stories™ procedure. Naturalistic probes…

Application of Interval Arithmetic in the Evaluation of Transfer Capabilities by Considering the Sources of Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prabha Umapathy

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Total transfer capability (TTC is an important index in a power system with large volume of inter-area power exchanges. This paper proposes a novel technique to determine the TTC and its confidence intervals in the system by considering the uncertainties in the load and line parameters. The optimal power flow (OPF method is used to obtain the TTC. Variations in the load and line parameters are incorporated using the interval arithmetic (IA method. The IEEE 30 bus test system is used to illustrate the proposed methodology. Various uncertainties in the line, load and both line and load are incorporated in the evaluation of total transfer capability. From the results, it is observed that the solutions obtained through the proposed method provide much wider information in terms of closed interval form which is more useful in ensuring secured operation of the interconnected system in the presence of uncertainties in load and line parameters.

Film cooling for a closed loop cooled airfoil

Science.gov (United States)

Burdgick, Steven Sebastian; Yu, Yufeng Phillip; Itzel, Gary Michael

2003-01-01

Turbine stator vane segments have radially inner and outer walls with vanes extending therebetween. The inner and outer walls are compartmentalized and have impingement plates. Steam flowing into the outer wall plenum passes through the impingement plate for impingement cooling of the outer wall upper surface. The spent impingement steam flows into cavities of the vane having inserts for impingement cooling the walls of the vane. The steam passes into the inner wall and through the impingement plate for impingement cooling of the inner wall surface and for return through return cavities having inserts for impingement cooling of the vane surfaces. At least one film cooling hole is defined through a wall of at least one of the cavities for flow communication between an interior of the cavity and an exterior of the vane. The film cooling hole(s) are defined adjacent a potential low LCF life region, so that cooling medium that bleeds out through the film cooling hole(s) reduces a thermal gradient in a vicinity thereof, thereby the increase the LCF life of that region.

Incorporation of phenomenological uncertainties in probabilistic safety analysis - application to LMFBR core disruptive accident energetics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Najafi, B; Theofanous, T G; Rumble, E T; Atefi, B

1984-08-01

This report describes a method for quantifying frequency and consequence uncertainty distribution associated with core disruptive accidents (CDAs). The method was developed to estimate the frequency and magnitude of energy impacting the reactor vessel head of the Clinch River Breeder Plant (CRBRP) given the occurrence of hypothetical CDAs. The methodology is illustrated using the CRBR example.

Licensing in BE system code calculations. Applications and uncertainty evaluation by CIAU method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Petruzzi, Alessandro; D'Auria, Francesco

2007-01-01

The evaluation of uncertainty constitutes the necessary supplement of Best Estimate (BE) calculations performed to understand accident scenarios in water cooled nuclear reactors. The needs come from the imperfection of computational tools on the one side and from the interest in using such tool to get more precise evaluation of safety margins. In the present paper the approaches to uncertainty are outlined and the CIAU (Code with capability of Internal Assessment of Uncertainty) method proposed by the University of Pisa is described including ideas at the basis and results from applications. Two approaches are distinguished that are characterized as 'propagation of code input uncertainty' and 'propagation of code output errors'. For both methods, the thermal-hydraulic code is at the centre of the process of uncertainty evaluation: in the former case the code itself is adopted to compute the error bands and to propagate the input errors, in the latter case the errors in code application to relevant measurements are used to derive the error bands. The CIAU method exploits the idea of the 'status approach' for identifying the thermal-hydraulic conditions of an accident in any Nuclear Power Plant (NPP). Errors in predicting such status are derived from the comparison between predicted and measured quantities and, in the stage of the application of the method, are used to compute the uncertainty. (author)

Semi-active control for vibration mitigation of structural systems incorporating uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miah, Mohammad S; Chatzi, Eleni N; Weber, Felix

2015-01-01

This study introduces a novel semi-active control scheme, where the linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) is combined with an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) observer, for the real-time mitigation of structural vibration. Due to a number of factors, such as environmental effects and ageing processes, the controlled system may be characterized by uncertainties. The UKF, which comprises a nonlinear observer, is employed herein for devising an adaptive semi-active control scheme capable of tackling such a challenge. This is achieved through the real-time realization of joint state and parameter estimation during the structural control process via the proposed LQR-UKF approach. The behavior of the introduced scheme is exemplified through two numerical applications. The efficacy of the devised methodology is firstly compared against the standard LQR-KF approach in a linear benchmark application where the system model is assumed known a priori, and secondly, the method is validated on a joint state and parameter estimation problem where the system model is assumed uncertain, formulated as nonlinear, and updated in real-time. (paper)

Application of evaporative cooling on the condenser of window-air-conditioner

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hajidavalloo, Ebrahim

2007-01-01

Reduction of energy consumption is a major concern in the vapor compression refrigeration cycle especially in the area with very hot weather conditions (about 50 deg. C), where window-air-conditioners are usually used to cool homes. In this weather condition performance of air condenser window-air-conditioners decrease sharply and electrical power consumption increase considerably. These problems have activated the research programs in order to improve the performance of window-air-conditioners by enhancing heat transfer rate in the condenser. In this article, a new design with high commercialization potential for incorporating of evaporative cooling in the condenser of window-air-conditioner is introduced and experimentally investigated. A real air conditioner is used to test the innovation by putting two cooling pads in both sides of the air conditioner and injecting water on them in order to cool down the air before it passing over the condenser. The experimental results show that thermodynamic characteristics of new system are considerably improved and power consumption decreases by about 16% and the coefficient of performance increases by about 55%

Application of evaporative cooling on the condenser of window-air-conditioner

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hajidavalloo, Ebrahim [Shahid Chamran University, Department of Mechanical Engineering, Golestan St., Ahwaz, Khoozestan 61355 (Iran, Islamic Republic of)]. E-mail: hajidae_1999@yahoo.com

2007-08-15

Reduction of energy consumption is a major concern in the vapor compression refrigeration cycle especially in the area with very hot weather conditions (about 50 deg. C), where window-air-conditioners are usually used to cool homes. In this weather condition performance of air condenser window-air-conditioners decrease sharply and electrical power consumption increase considerably. These problems have activated the research programs in order to improve the performance of window-air-conditioners by enhancing heat transfer rate in the condenser. In this article, a new design with high commercialization potential for incorporating of evaporative cooling in the condenser of window-air-conditioner is introduced and experimentally investigated. A real air conditioner is used to test the innovation by putting two cooling pads in both sides of the air conditioner and injecting water on them in order to cool down the air before it passing over the condenser. The experimental results show that thermodynamic characteristics of new system are considerably improved and power consumption decreases by about 16% and the coefficient of performance increases by about 55%.

Analytical incorporation of fractionation effects in probabilistic treatment planning for intensity-modulated proton therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, Niklas; Hennig, Philipp; Wieser, Hans-Peter; Bangert, Mark

2018-04-01

We show that it is possible to explicitly incorporate fractionation effects into closed-form probabilistic treatment plan analysis and optimization for intensity-modulated proton therapy with analytical probabilistic modeling (APM). We study the impact of different fractionation schemes on the dosimetric uncertainty induced by random and systematic sources of range and setup uncertainty for treatment plans that were optimized with and without consideration of the number of treatment fractions. The APM framework is capable of handling arbitrarily correlated uncertainty models including systematic and random errors in the context of fractionation. On this basis, we construct an analytical dose variance computation pipeline that explicitly considers the number of treatment fractions for uncertainty quantitation and minimization during treatment planning. We evaluate the variance computation model in comparison to random sampling of 100 treatments for conventional and probabilistic treatment plans under different fractionation schemes (1, 5, 30 fractions) for an intracranial, a paraspinal and a prostate case. The impact of neglecting the fractionation scheme during treatment planning is investigated by applying treatment plans that were generated with probabilistic optimization for 1 fraction in a higher number of fractions and comparing them to the probabilistic plans optimized under explicit consideration of the number of fractions. APM enables the construction of an analytical variance computation model for dose uncertainty considering fractionation at negligible computational overhead. It is computationally feasible (a) to simultaneously perform a robustness analysis for all possible fraction numbers and (b) to perform a probabilistic treatment plan optimization for a specific fraction number. The incorporation of fractionation assumptions for robustness analysis exposes a dose to uncertainty trade-off, i.e., the dose in the organs at risk is increased for a

Experimental study of in-and-ex-vessel melt cooling during a severe accident

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Sang Baik; Yoo, K J; Park, C K; Seok, S D; Park, R J; Yi, S J; Kang, K H; Ham, Y S; Cho, Y R; Kim, J H; Jeong, J H; Shin, K Y; Cho, J S; Kim, D H

1997-07-01

After code damage during a severe accident in a nuclear reactor, the degraded core has to be cooled down and the decay heat should be removed in order to cease the accident progression and maintain a stable state. The cooling of core melt is divided into in-vessel and ex-vessel cooling depending on the location of molten core which is dependent on the timing of vessel failure. Since the cooling mechanism varies with the conditions of molten core and surroundings and related phenomena, it contains many phenomenological uncertainties so far. In this study, an experimental study for verification of in-vessel corium cooling and several separate effect experiments for ex-vessel cooling are carried out to verify in- and ex-vessel cooling phenomena and finally to develop the accident management strategy and improve engineered reactor design for the severe accidents. SONATA-IV (Simulation of Naturally Arrested Thermal Attack in Vessel) program is set up for in-vessel cooling and a progression of the verification experiment has been done, and an integral verification experiment of the containment integrity for ex-vessel cooling is planned to be carried out based on the separate effect experiments performed in the first phase. First phase study of SONATA-IV is proof of principle experiment and it is composed of LALA (Lower-plenum Arrested Vessel Attack) experiment to find the gap between melt and the lower plenum during melt relocation and to certify melt quenching and CHFG (Critical Heat Flux in Gap) experiment to certify heat transfer mechanism in an artificial gap. As separate effect experiments for ex-vessel cooling, high pressure melt ejection experiment related to the initial condition for debris layer formation in the reactor cavity, crust formation and heat transfer experiment in the molten pool and molten core concrete interaction experiment are performed. (author). 150 refs., 24 tabs., 127 figs.

Uncertainty in Bioenergy Scenarios for California: Lessons Learned in Communicating with Different Stakeholder Groups

Science.gov (United States)

Youngs, H.

2013-12-01

Projecting future bioenergy use involves incorporating several critical inter-related parameters with high uncertainty. Among these are: technology adoption, infrastructure and capacity building, investment, political will, and public acceptance. How, when, where, and to what extent the various bioenergy options are implemented has profound effects on the environmental impacts incurred. California serves as an interesting case study for bioenergy implementation because it has very strong competing forces that can influence these critical factors. The state has aggressive greenhouse gas reduction goals, which will require some biofuels, and has invested accordingly on new technology. At the same time, political will and public acceptance of bioenergy has wavered, seriously stalling bioenergy expansion efforts. We have constructed scenarios for bioenergy implementation in California to 2050, in conjunction with efforts to reach AB32 GHG reduction goals of 80% below 1990 emissions. The state has the potential to produce 3 to 10 TJ of biofuels and electricity; however, this potential will be severely limited in some scenarios. This work examines sources of uncertainty in bioenergy implementation, how uncertainty is or is not incorporated into future bioenergy scenarios, and what this means for assessing environmental impacts. How uncertainty is communicated and perceived also affects future scenarios. Often, there is a disconnect between scenarios for widespread implementation and the actual development of individual projects, resulting in "artificial uncertainty" with very real impacts. Bringing stakeholders to the table is only the first step. Strategies to tailor and stage discussions of uncertainty to stakeholder groups is equally important. Lessons learned in the process of communicating the Calfornia's Energy Future biofuels assessment will be discussed.

Optimal design and uncertainty quantification in blood flow simulations for congenital heart disease

Science.gov (United States)

Marsden, Alison

2009-11-01

Recent work has demonstrated substantial progress in capabilities for patient-specific cardiovascular flow simulations. Recent advances include increasingly complex geometries, physiological flow conditions, and fluid structure interaction. However inputs to these simulations, including medical image data, catheter-derived pressures and material properties, can have significant uncertainties associated with them. For simulations to predict clinically useful and reliable output information, it is necessary to quantify the effects of input uncertainties on outputs of interest. In addition, blood flow simulation tools can now be efficiently coupled to shape optimization algorithms for surgery design applications, and these tools should incorporate uncertainty information. We present a unified framework to systematically and efficient account for uncertainties in simulations using adaptive stochastic collocation. In addition, we present a framework for derivative-free optimization of cardiovascular geometries, and layer these tools to perform optimization under uncertainty. These methods are demonstrated using simulations and surgery optimization to improve hemodynamics in pediatric cardiology applications.

A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz-Carpena, R.; Muller, S. J.; Chu, M.; Kiker, G. A.; Perz, S. G.

2014-12-01

Model Model complexity resulting from the need to integrate environmental system components cannot be understated. In particular, additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through uncertainties surrounding the integrated system across decision-relevant scales. However, in spite of the difficulties that the consideration of modeling uncertainty represent for the decision process, it should not be avoided or the value and science behind the models will be undermined. These two issues; i.e., the need for coupled models that can answer the pertinent questions and the need for models that do so with sufficient certainty, are the key indicators of a model's relevance. Model relevance is inextricably linked with model complexity. Although model complexity has advanced greatly in recent years there has been little work to rigorously characterize the threshold of relevance in integrated and complex models. Formally assessing the relevance of the model in the face of increasing complexity would be valuable because there is growing unease among developers and users of complex models about the cumulative effects of various sources of uncertainty on model outputs. In particular, this issue has prompted doubt over whether the considerable effort going into further elaborating complex models will in fact yield the expected payback. New approaches have been proposed recently to evaluate the uncertainty-complexity-relevance modeling trilemma (Muller, Muñoz-Carpena and Kiker, 2011) by incorporating state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) in every step of the model development so as to quantify not only the uncertainty introduced by the addition of new environmental components, but the effect that these new components have over existing components (interactions, non-linear responses). Outputs from the analysis can also be used to quantify system resilience (stability, alternative states, thresholds or tipping

A Bayesian statistical method for quantifying model form uncertainty and two model combination methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Inseok; Grandhi, Ramana V.

2014-01-01

Apart from parametric uncertainty, model form uncertainty as well as prediction error may be involved in the analysis of engineering system. Model form uncertainty, inherently existing in selecting the best approximation from a model set cannot be ignored, especially when the predictions by competing models show significant differences. In this research, a methodology based on maximum likelihood estimation is presented to quantify model form uncertainty using the measured differences of experimental and model outcomes, and is compared with a fully Bayesian estimation to demonstrate its effectiveness. While a method called the adjustment factor approach is utilized to propagate model form uncertainty alone into the prediction of a system response, a method called model averaging is utilized to incorporate both model form uncertainty and prediction error into it. A numerical problem of concrete creep is used to demonstrate the processes for quantifying model form uncertainty and implementing the adjustment factor approach and model averaging. Finally, the presented methodology is applied to characterize the engineering benefits of a laser peening process

Divertor cooling device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakayama, Tadakazu; Hayashi, Katsumi; Handa, Hiroyuki

1993-01-01

Cooling water for a divertor cooling system cools the divertor, thereafter, passes through pipelines connecting the exit pipelines of the divertor cooling system and the inlet pipelines of a blanket cooling system and is introduced to the blanket cooling system in a vacuum vessel. It undergoes emission of neutrons, and cooling water in the divertor cooling system containing a great amount of N-16 which is generated by radioactivation of O-16 is introduced to the blanket cooling system in the vacuum vessel by way of pipelines, and after cooling, passes through exit pipelines of the blanket cooling system and is introduced to the outside of the vacuum vessel. Radiation of N-16 in the cooling water is decayed sufficiently with passage of time during cooling of the blanket, thereby enabling to decrease the amount of shielding materials such as facilities and pipelines, and ensure spaces. (N.H.)

Cool colored coating and phase change materials as complementary cooling strategies for building cooling load reduction in tropics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lei, Jiawei; Kumarasamy, Karthikeyan; Zingre, Kishor T.; Yang, Jinglei; Wan, Man Pun; Yang, En-Hua

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Cool colored coating and PCM are two complementary passive cooling strategies. • A PCM cool colored coating system is developed. • The coating reduces cooling energy by 8.5% and is effective yearly in tropical Singapore. - Abstract: Cool colored coating and phase change materials (PCM) are two passive cooling strategies often used separately in many studies and applications. This paper investigated the integration of cool colored coating and PCM for building cooling through experimental and numerical studies. Results showed that cool colored coating and PCM are two complementary passive cooling strategies that could be used concurrently in tropical climate where cool colored coating in the form of paint serves as the “first protection” to reflect solar radiation and a thin layer of PCM forms the “second protection” to absorb the conductive heat that cannot be handled by cool paint. Unlike other climate zones where PCM is only seasonally effective and cool paint is only beneficial during summer, the application of the proposed PCM cool colored coating in building envelope could be effective throughout the entire year with a monthly cooling energy saving ranging from 5 to 12% due to the uniform climatic condition all year round in tropical Singapore.

Thermoelectric self-cooling for power electronics: Increasing the cooling power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Martinez, Alvaro; Astrain, David; Aranguren, Patricia

2016-01-01

Thermoelectric self-cooling was firstly conceived to increase, without electricity consumption, the cooling power of passive cooling systems. This paper studies the combination of heat pipe exchangers and thermoelectric self-cooling, and demonstrates its applicability to the cooling of power electronics. Experimental tests indicate that source-to-ambient thermal resistance reduces by around 30% when thermoelectric self-cooling system is installed, compared to that of the heat pipe exchanger under natural convection. Neither additional electric power nor cooling fluids are required. This thermal resistance reaches 0.346 K/W for a heat flux of 24.1 kW/m"2, being one order of magnitude lower than that obtained in previous designs. In addition, the system adapts to the cooling demand, reducing this thermal resistance for increasing heat. Simulation tests have indicated that simple system modifications allow relevant improvements in the cooling power. Replacement of a thermoelectric module with a thermal bridge leads to 33.54 kW/m"2 of top cooling power. Likewise, thermoelectric modules with shorter legs and higher number of pairs lead to a top cooling power of 44.17 kW/m"2. These results demonstrate the applicability of thermoelectric self-cooling to power electronics. - Highlights: • Cooling power of passive systems increased. • No electric power consumption. • Applicable for the cooling of power electronics. • Up to 44.17 kW/m"2 of cooling power, one order of magnitude higher. • Source-to-ambient thermal resistance reduces by 30%.

Optimization of distribution piping network in district cooling system using genetic algorithm with local search

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chan, Apple L.S.; Hanby, Vic I.; Chow, T.T.

2007-01-01

A district cooling system is a sustainable means of distribution of cooling energy through mass production. A cooling medium like chilled water is generated at a central refrigeration plant and supplied to serve a group of consumer buildings through a piping network. Because of the substantial capital investment involved, an optimal design of the distribution piping configuration is one of the crucial factors for successful implementation of the district cooling scheme. In the present study, genetic algorithm (GA) incorporated with local search techniques was developed to find the optimal/near optimal configuration of the piping network in a hypothetical site. The effect of local search, mutation rate and frequency of local search on the performance of the GA in terms of both solution quality and computation time were investigated and presented in this paper

Comprehensive neutron cross-section and secondary energy distribution uncertainty analysis for a fusion reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerstl, S.A.W.; LaBauve, R.J.; Young, P.G.

1980-05-01

On the example of General Atomic's well-documented Power Generating Fusion Reactor (PGFR) design, this report exercises a comprehensive neutron cross-section and secondary energy distribution (SED) uncertainty analysis. The LASL sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code SENSIT is used to calculate reaction cross-section sensitivity profiles and integral SED sensitivity coefficients. These are then folded with covariance matrices and integral SED uncertainties to obtain the resulting uncertainties of three calculated neutronics design parameters: two critical radiation damage rates and a nuclear heating rate. The report documents the first sensitivity-based data uncertainty analysis, which incorporates a quantitative treatment of the effects of SED uncertainties. The results demonstrate quantitatively that the ENDF/B-V cross-section data files for C, H, and O, including their SED data, are fully adequate for this design application, while the data for Fe and Ni are at best marginally adequate because they give rise to response uncertainties up to 25%. Much higher response uncertainties are caused by cross-section and SED data uncertainties in Cu (26 to 45%), tungsten (24 to 54%), and Cr (up to 98%). Specific recommendations are given for re-evaluations of certain reaction cross-sections, secondary energy distributions, and uncertainty estimates

Optimal Time to Invest Energy Storage System under Uncertainty Conditions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yongma Moon

2014-04-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a model to determine the optimal investment time for energy storage systems (ESSs in a price arbitrage trade application under conditions of uncertainty over future profits. The adoption of ESSs can generate profits from price arbitrage trade, which are uncertain because the future marginal prices of electricity will change depending on supply and demand. In addition, since the investment is optional, an investor can delay adopting an ESS until it becomes profitable, and can decide the optimal time. Thus, when we evaluate this investment, we need to incorporate the investor’s option which is not captured by traditional evaluation methods. In order to incorporate these aspects, we applied real option theory to our proposed model, which provides an optimal investment threshold. Our results concerning the optimal time to invest show that if future profits that are expected to be obtained from arbitrage trade become more uncertain, an investor needs to wait longer to invest. Also, improvement in efficiency of ESSs can reduce the uncertainty of arbitrage profit and, consequently, the reduced uncertainty enables earlier ESS investment, even for the same power capacity. Besides, when a higher rate of profits is expected and ESS costs are higher, an investor needs to wait longer. Also, by comparing a widely used net present value model to our real option model, we show that the net present value method underestimates the value for ESS investment and misleads the investor to make an investment earlier.

Role of uncertainty in the basalt waste isolation project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knepp, A.J.; Dahlem, D.H.

1989-01-01

The current national Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (CRWM) Program to select a mined geologic repository will likely require the extensive use of probabilistic techniques to quantify uncertainty in predictions of repository isolation performance. Performance of nonhomogeneous, geologic hydrologic, and chemical systems must be predicted over time frames of thousands of years and therefore will likely contain significant uncertainty. A qualitative assessment of our limited ability to interrogate the site in a nondestructive manner coupled with the early stage of development in the pertinent geosciences support this statement. The success of the approach to incorporate what currently appears to be an appreciable element of uncertainty into the predictions of repository performance will play an important role in acquiring a license to operate and in establishing the level of safety associated with the concept of long-term geologic storage of nuclear waste. This paper presents a brief background on the Hanford Site and the repository program, references the sources that establish the legislative requirement to quantify uncertainties in performance predictions, and summarized the present and future program at the Hanford Site in this area. The decision to quantify significant sources of uncertainties has had a major impact on the direction of the site characterization program here at Hanford. The paper concludes with a number of observations on the impacts of this decision

Some concepts of model uncertainty for performance assessments of nuclear waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eisenberg, N.A.; Sagar, B.; Wittmeyer, G.W.

1994-01-01

Models of the performance of nuclear waste repositories will be central to making regulatory decisions regarding the safety of such facilities. The conceptual model of repository performance is represented by mathematical relationships, which are usually implemented as one or more computer codes. A geologic system may allow many conceptual models, which are consistent with the observations. These conceptual models may or may not have the same mathematical representation. Experiences in modeling the performance of a waste repository representation. Experiences in modeling the performance of a waste repository (which is, in part, a geologic system), show that this non-uniqueness of conceptual models is a significant source of model uncertainty. At the same time, each conceptual model has its own set of parameters and usually, it is not be possible to completely separate model uncertainty from parameter uncertainty for the repository system. Issues related to the origin of model uncertainty, its relation to parameter uncertainty, and its incorporation in safety assessments are discussed from a broad regulatory perspective. An extended example in which these issues are explored numerically is also provided

Compromise decision support problems for hierarchical design involving uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Vadde, S.; Allen, J. K.; Mistree, F.

1994-08-01

In this paper an extension to the traditional compromise Decision Support Problem (DSP) formulation is presented. Bayesian statistics is used in the formulation to model uncertainties associated with the information being used. In an earlier paper a compromise DSP that accounts for uncertainty using fuzzy set theory was introduced. The Bayesian Decision Support Problem is described in this paper. The method for hierarchical design is demonstrated by using this formulation to design a portal frame. The results are discussed and comparisons are made with those obtained using the fuzzy DSP. Finally, the efficacy of incorporating Bayesian statistics into the traditional compromise DSP formulation is discussed and some pending research issues are described. Our emphasis in this paper is on the method rather than the results per se.

Accounting for methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty in decision-analytic models: a practical guide.

Science.gov (United States)

Bilcke, Joke; Beutels, Philippe; Brisson, Marc; Jit, Mark

2011-01-01

Accounting for uncertainty is now a standard part of decision-analytic modeling and is recommended by many health technology agencies and published guidelines. However, the scope of such analyses is often limited, even though techniques have been developed for presenting the effects of methodological, structural, and parameter uncertainty on model results. To help bring these techniques into mainstream use, the authors present a step-by-step guide that offers an integrated approach to account for different kinds of uncertainty in the same model, along with a checklist for assessing the way in which uncertainty has been incorporated. The guide also addresses special situations such as when a source of uncertainty is difficult to parameterize, resources are limited for an ideal exploration of uncertainty, or evidence to inform the model is not available or not reliable. for identifying the sources of uncertainty that influence results most are also described. Besides guiding analysts, the guide and checklist may be useful to decision makers who need to assess how well uncertainty has been accounted for in a decision-analytic model before using the results to make a decision.

Cloud Study Investigators: Using NASA's CERES S'COOL in Problem-Based Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Susan; Popiolkowski, Gary

2011-01-01

1This article describes how, by incorporating NASA's Students' Cloud Observations On-Line (S'COOL) project into a problem-based learning (PBL) activity, middle school students are engaged in authentic scientific research where they observe and record information about clouds and contribute ground truth data to NASA's Clouds and the Earth's…

Effect of cooling water on stability of NLC linac components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

F. Le Pimpec et al.

2003-02-11

Vertical vibration of linac components (accelerating structures, girders and quadrupoles) in the NLC has been studied experimentally and analytically. Effects such as structural resonances and vibration caused by cooling water both in accelerating structures and quadrupoles have been considered. Experimental data has been compared with analytical predictions and simulations using ANSYS. A design, incorporating the proper decoupling of structure vibrations from the linac quadrupoles, is being pursued.

Effect of Cooling Water on Stability of NLC Linac Components

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Le Pimpec, Frederic

2002-11-01

Vertical vibration of linac components (accelerating structures, girders and quadrupoles) in the NLC has been studied experimentally and analytically. Effects such as structural resonances and vibration caused by cooling water both in accelerating structures and quadrupoles have been considered. Experimental data has been compared with analytical predictions and simulations using ANSYS. A design, incorporating the proper decoupling of structure vibrations from the linac quadrupoles, is being pursued.

Numerical analysis of hypersonic turbulent film cooling flows

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y. S.; Chen, C. P.; Wei, H.

1992-01-01

As a building block, numerical capabilities for predicting heat flux and turbulent flowfields of hypersonic vehicles require extensive model validations. Computational procedures for calculating turbulent flows and heat fluxes for supersonic film cooling with parallel slot injections are described in this study. Two injectant mass flow rates with matched and unmatched pressure conditions using the database of Holden et al. (1990) are considered. To avoid uncertainties associated with the boundary conditions in testing turbulence models, detailed three-dimensional flowfields of the injection nozzle were calculated. Two computational fluid dynamics codes, GASP and FDNS, with the algebraic Baldwin-Lomax and k-epsilon models with compressibility corrections were used. It was found that the B-L model which resolves near-wall viscous sublayer is very sensitive to the inlet boundary conditions at the nozzle exit face. The k-epsilon models with improved wall functions are less sensitive to the inlet boundary conditions. The testings show that compressibility corrections are necessary for the k-epsilon model to realistically predict the heat fluxes of the hypersonic film cooling problems.

Preliminary Analysis on Heat Removal Capacity of Passive Air-Water Combined Cooling Heat Exchanger Using MARS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Seung-Sin; Jeon, Seong-Su; Hong, Soon-Joon; Bae, Sung-Won; Kwon, Tae-Soon

2015-01-01

Current design requirement for working time of PAFS heat exchanger is about 8 hours. Thus, it is not satisfied with the required cooling capability for the long term SBO(Station Black-Out) situation that is required to over 72 hours cooling. Therefore PAFS is needed to change of design for 72 hours cooling. In order to acquirement of long terms cooling using PAFS, heat exchanger tube has to be submerged in water tank for long time. However, water in the tank is evaporated by transferred heat from heat exchanger tubes, so water level is gradually lowered as time goes on. The heat removal capacity of air cooling heat exchanger is core parameter that is used for decision of applicability on passive air-water combined cooling system using PAFS in long term cooling. In this study, the development of MARS input model and plant accident analysis are performed for the prediction of the heat removal capacity of air cooling heat exchanger. From analysis result, it is known that inflow air velocity is the decisive factor of the heat removal capacity and predicted air velocity is lower than required air velocity. But present heat transfer model and predicted air velocity have uncertainty. So, if changed design of PAFS that has over 4.6 kW heat removal capacity in each tube, this type heat exchanger can be applied to long term cooling of the nuclear power plant

Uncertainty estimates for predictions of the impact of breeder-reactor radionuclide releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, C.W.; Little, C.A.

1982-01-01

This paper summarizes estimates, compiled in a larger report, of the uncertainty associated with models and parameters used to assess the impact on man radionuclide releases to the environment by breeder reactor facilities. These estimates indicate that, for many sites, generic models and representative parameter values may reasonably be used to calculate doses from annual average radionuclide releases when these calculated doses are on the order of one-tenth or less of a relevant dose limit. For short-term, accidental releases, the uncertainty in the dose calculations may be much larger than an order of magnitude. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate site-specific information into the dose calculation under such circumstances. However, even using site-specific information, inherent natural variability within human receptors, and the uncertainties in the dose conversion factor will likely result in an overall uncertainty of greater than an order of magnitude for predictions of dose following short-term releases

Explicitly integrating parameter, input, and structure uncertainties into Bayesian Neural Networks for probabilistic hydrologic forecasting

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Xuesong

2011-11-01

Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework (BNN-PIS) to incorporate the uncertainties associated with parameters, inputs, and structures into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameters and model structures. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters shows that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of and interactions among different uncertainty sources is expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Uncertainty management in knowledge based systems for nondestructive testing-an example from ultrasonic testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajagopalan, C.; Kalyanasundaram, P.; Baldev Raj

1996-01-01

The use of fuzzy logic, as a framework for uncertainty management, in a knowledge-based system (KBS) for ultrasonic testing of austenitic stainless steels is described. Parameters that may contain uncertain values are identified. Methodologies to handle uncertainty in these parameters using fuzzy logic are detailed. The overall improvement in the performance of the knowledge-based system after incorporating fuzzy logic is discussed. The methodology developed being universal, its extension to other KBS for nondestructive testing and evaluation is highlighted. (author)

Uncertainties on decay heat power due to fission product data uncertainties; Incertitudes sur la puissance residuelle dues aux incertitudes sur les donnees de produits de fission

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rebah, J

1998-08-01

Following a reactor shutdown, after the fission process has completely faded out, a significant quantity of energy known as 'decay heat' continues to be generated in the core. The knowledge with a good precision of the decay heat released in a fuel after reactor shutdown is necessary for: residual heat removal for normal operation or emergency shutdown condition, the design of cooling systems and spent fuel handling. By the summation calculations method, the decay heat is equal to the sum of the energies released by individual fission products. Under taking into account all nuclides that contribute significantly to the total decay heat, the results from summation method are comparable with the measured ones. Without the complete covariance information of nuclear data, the published uncertainty analyses of fission products decay heat summation calculation give underestimated errors through the variance/covariance analysis in consideration of correlation between the basic nuclear data, we calculate in this work the uncertainties on the decay heat associated with the summation calculations. Contribution to the total error of decay heat comes from uncertainties in three terms: fission yields, half-lives and average beta and gamma decay energy. (author)

Modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor simulation using parallel processors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ball, S.J.; Conklin, J.C.

1989-01-01

The MHPP (Modular HTGR Parallel Processor) code has been developed to simulate modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR) transients and accidents. MHPP incorporates a very detailed model for predicting the dynamics of the reactor core, vessel, and cooling systems over a wide variety of scenarios ranging from expected transients to very-low-probability severe accidents. The simulations routines, which had originally been developed entirely as serial code, were readily adapted to parallel processing Fortran. The resulting parallelized simulation speed was enhanced significantly. Workstation interfaces are being developed to provide for user (operator) interaction. In this paper the benefits realized by adapting previous MHTGR codes to run on a parallel processor are discussed, along with results of typical accident analyses

Uncertainty Analysis and Expert Judgment in Seismic Hazard Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Klügel, Jens-Uwe

2011-01-01

The large uncertainty associated with the prediction of future earthquakes is usually regarded as the main reason for increased hazard estimates which have resulted from some recent large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis studies (e.g. the PEGASOS study in Switzerland and the Yucca Mountain study in the USA). It is frequently overlooked that such increased hazard estimates are characteristic for a single specific method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): the traditional (Cornell-McGuire) PSHA method which has found its highest level of sophistication in the SSHAC probability method. Based on a review of the SSHAC probability model and its application in the PEGASOS project, it is shown that the surprising results of recent PSHA studies can be explained to a large extent by the uncertainty model used in traditional PSHA, which deviates from the state of the art in mathematics and risk analysis. This uncertainty model, the Ang-Tang uncertainty model, mixes concepts of decision theory with probabilistic hazard assessment methods leading to an overestimation of uncertainty in comparison to empirical evidence. Although expert knowledge can be a valuable source of scientific information, its incorporation into the SSHAC probability method does not resolve the issue of inflating uncertainties in PSHA results. Other, more data driven, PSHA approaches in use in some European countries are less vulnerable to this effect. The most valuable alternative to traditional PSHA is the direct probabilistic scenario-based approach, which is closely linked with emerging neo-deterministic methods based on waveform modelling.

Uncertainty Estimate in Resources Assessment: A Geostatistical Contribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza, Luis Eduardo de; Costa, Joao Felipe C. L.; Koppe, Jair C.

2004-01-01

For many decades the mining industry regarded resources/reserves estimation and classification as a mere calculation requiring basic mathematical and geological knowledge. Most methods were based on geometrical procedures and spatial data distribution. Therefore, uncertainty associated with tonnages and grades either were ignored or mishandled, although various mining codes require a measure of confidence in the values reported. Traditional methods fail in reporting the level of confidence in the quantities and grades. Conversely, kriging is known to provide the best estimate and its associated variance. Among kriging methods, Ordinary Kriging (OK) probably is the most widely used one for mineral resource/reserve estimation, mainly because of its robustness and its facility in uncertainty assessment by using the kriging variance. It also is known that OK variance is unable to recognize local data variability, an important issue when heterogeneous mineral deposits with higher and poorer grade zones are being evaluated. Alternatively, stochastic simulation are used to build local or global uncertainty about a geological attribute respecting its statistical moments. This study investigates methods capable of incorporating uncertainty to the estimates of resources and reserves via OK and sequential gaussian and sequential indicator simulation The results showed that for the type of mineralization studied all methods classified the tonnages similarly. The methods are illustrated using an exploration drill hole data sets from a large Brazilian coal deposit

Uncertainty assessment for accelerator-driven systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Finck, P. J.; Gomes, I.; Micklich, B.; Palmiotti, G.

1999-01-01

The concept of a subcritical system driven by an external source of neutrons provided by an accelerator ADS (Accelerator Driver System) has been recently revived and is becoming more popular in the world technical community with active programs in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. A general consensus has been reached in adopting for the subcritical component a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled configuration. Both a lead-bismuth eutectic, sodium and gas are being considered as a coolant; each has advantages and disadvantages. The major expected advantage is that subcriticality avoids reactivity induced transients. The potentially large subcriticality margin also should allow for the introduction of very significant quantities of waste products (minor Actinides and Fission Products) which negatively impact the safety characteristics of standard cores. In the U.S. these arguments are the basis for the development of the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW), which has significant potential in reducing nuclear waste levels. Up to now, neutronic calculations have not attached uncertainties on the values of the main nuclear integral parameters that characterize the system. Many of these parameters (e.g., degree of subcriticality) are crucial to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of this concept. In this paper we will consider uncertainties related to nuclear data only. The present knowledge of the cross sections of many isotopes that are not usually utilized in existing reactors (like Bi, Pb-207, Pb-208, and also Minor Actinides and Fission Products) suggests that uncertainties in the integral parameters will be significantly larger than for conventional reactor systems, and this raises concerns on the neutronic performance of those systems

Effects of Hot Streak and Phantom Cooling on Heat Transfer in a Cooled Turbine Stage Including Particulate Deposition

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bons, Jeffrey [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); Ameri, Ali [The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States)

2016-01-08

The objective of this research effort was to develop a validated computational modeling capability for the characterization of the effects of hot streaks and particulate deposition on the heat load of modern gas turbines. This was accomplished with a multi-faceted approach including analytical, experimental, and computational components. A 1-year no cost extension request was approved for this effort, so the total duration was 4 years. The research effort succeeded in its ultimate objective by leveraging extensive experimental deposition studies complemented by computational modeling. Experiments were conducted with hot streaks, vane cooling, and combinations of hot streaks with vane cooling. These studies contributed to a significant body of corporate knowledge of deposition, in combination with particle rebound and deposition studies funded by other agencies, to provide suitable conditions for the development of a new model. The model includes the following physical phenomena: elastic deformation, plastic deformation, adhesion, and shear removal. It also incorporates material property sensitivity to temperature and tangential-normal velocity rebound cross-dependencies observed in experiments. The model is well-suited for incorporation in CFD simulations of complex gas turbine flows due to its algebraic (explicit) formulation. This report contains model predictions compared to coefficient of restitution data available in the open literature as well as deposition results from two different high temperature turbine deposition facilities. While the model comparisons with experiments are in many cases promising, several key aspects of particle deposition remain elusive. The simple phenomenological nature of the model allows for parametric dependencies to be evaluated in a straightforward manner. This effort also included the first-ever full turbine stage deposition model published in the open literature. The simulations included hot streaks and simulated vane cooling

MAPLE research reactor safety uncertainty assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sills, H.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Andres, T.H.

1999-01-01

The MAPLE (multipurpose Applied Physics Lattice Experiment) reactor is a low pressure, low temperature, open-tank-in pool type research reactor that operates at a power level of 5 to 35 MW. MAPLE is designed for ease of operation, maintenance, and to meet today's most demanding requirements for safety and licensing. The emphasis is on the use of passive safety systems and environmentally qualified components. Key safety features include two independent and diverse shutdown systems, two parallel and independent cooling loops, fail safe operation, and a building design that incorporates the concepts of primary containment supported by secondary confinement

Uncertainty and inference in the world of paleoecological data

Science.gov (United States)

McLachlan, J. S.; Dawson, A.; Dietze, M.; Finley, M.; Hooten, M.; Itter, M.; Jackson, S. T.; Marlon, J. R.; Raiho, A.; Tipton, J.; Williams, J.

2017-12-01

Proxy data in paleoecology and paleoclimatology share a common set of biases and uncertainties: spatiotemporal error associated with the taphonomic processes of deposition, preservation, and dating; calibration error between proxy data and the ecosystem states of interest; and error in the interpolation of calibrated estimates across space and time. Researchers often account for this daunting suite of challenges by applying qualitave expert judgment: inferring the past states of ecosystems and assessing the level of uncertainty in those states subjectively. The effectiveness of this approach can be seen by the extent to which future observations confirm previous assertions. Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) statistical approaches allow an alternative approach to accounting for multiple uncertainties in paleo data. HB estimates of ecosystem state formally account for each of the common uncertainties listed above. HB approaches can readily incorporate additional data, and data of different types into estimates of ecosystem state. And HB estimates of ecosystem state, with associated uncertainty, can be used to constrain forecasts of ecosystem dynamics based on mechanistic ecosystem models using data assimilation. Decisions about how to structure an HB model are also subjective, which creates a parallel framework for deciding how to interpret data from the deep past.Our group, the Paleoecological Observatory Network (PalEON), has applied hierarchical Bayesian statistics to formally account for uncertainties in proxy based estimates of past climate, fire, primary productivity, biomass, and vegetation composition. Our estimates often reveal new patterns of past ecosystem change, which is an unambiguously good thing, but we also often estimate a level of uncertainty that is uncomfortably high for many researchers. High levels of uncertainty are due to several features of the HB approach: spatiotemporal smoothing, the formal aggregation of multiple types of uncertainty, and a

Integrating uncertainty into public energy research and development decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Anadón, Laura Díaz; Baker, Erin; Bosetti, Valentina

2017-05-01

Public energy research and development (R&D) is recognized as a key policy tool for transforming the world's energy system in a cost-effective way. However, managing the uncertainty surrounding technological change is a critical challenge for designing robust and cost-effective energy policies. The design of such policies is particularly important if countries are going to both meet the ambitious greenhouse-gas emissions reductions goals set by the Paris Agreement and achieve the required harmonization with the broader set of objectives dictated by the Sustainable Development Goals. The complexity of informing energy technology policy requires, and is producing, a growing collaboration between different academic disciplines and practitioners. Three analytical components have emerged to support the integration of technological uncertainty into energy policy: expert elicitations, integrated assessment models, and decision frameworks. Here we review efforts to incorporate all three approaches to facilitate public energy R&D decision-making under uncertainty. We highlight emerging insights that are robust across elicitations, models, and frameworks, relating to the allocation of public R&D investments, and identify gaps and challenges that remain.

Incorporating Plutonium Particle Size Effects in the Assessment of Active Mode Measurement Uncertainty in Passive-Active Neutron Radioassay Systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackwood, Larry G.; Harker, Yale D.

2002-01-01

Assessment of active mode measurement uncertainty in passive-active neutron radioassay systems used to measure Pu content in nuclear waste is severely hampered by lack of knowledge of the waste Pu particle size distribution, which is a major factor in determining bias in active mode measurements. The sensitivity of active mode measurements to particle size precludes using simulations or surrogate waste forms to estimate uncertainty in active mode measurements when the particle size distribution is not precisely known or inadequately reproduced. An alternative approach is based on a statistical comparison of active and passive mode results in the mass range for which both active and passive mode analyses produce useable measurements. Because passive mode measurements are not particularly sensitive to particle size effects, their uncertainty can be more easily assessed. Once bias corrected, passive mode measurements can serve as confirmatory measurements for the estimation of active mode bias. Further statistical analysis of the errors in measurements leads to precision estimates for the active mode

Spallation Neutron Source Drift Tube Linac Resonance Control Cooling System Modeling

CERN Document Server

Tang, Johnny Y; Champion, Marianne M; Feschenko, Alexander; Gibson, Paul; Kiselev, Yuri; Kovalishin, A S; Kravchuk, Leonid V; Kvasha, Adolf; Schubert, James P

2005-01-01

The Resonance Control Cooling System (RCCS) for the warm linac of the Spallation Neutron Source was designed by Los Alamos National Laboratory. The primary design focus was on water cooling of individual component contributions. The sizing the RCCS water skid was accomplished by means of a specially created SINDA/FLUINT model tailored to these system requirements. A new model was developed in Matlab Simulink and incorporates actual operational values and control valve interactions. Included is the dependence of RF input power on system operation, cavity detuning values during transients, time delays that result from water flows through the heat exchanger, the dynamic process of water warm-up in the cooling system due to dissipated RF power on the cavity surface, differing contributions on the cavity detuning due to drift tube and wall heating, and a dynamic model of the heat exchanger with characteristics in close agreement to the real unit. Because of the Matlab Simulink model, investigation of a wide range ...

Quantum time uncertainty in a gravity's rainbow formalism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galan, Pablo; Marugan, Guillermo A. Mena

2004-01-01

The existence of a minimum time uncertainty is usually argued to be a consequence of the combination of quantum mechanics and general relativity. Most of the studies that point to this result are nonetheless based on perturbative quantization approaches, in which the effect of matter on the geometry is regarded as a correction to a classical background. In this paper, we consider rainbow spacetimes constructed from doubly special relativity by using a modification of the proposals of Magueijo and Smolin. In these models, gravitational effects are incorporated (at least to a certain extent) in the definition of the energy-momentum of particles without adhering to a perturbative treatment of the backreaction. In this context, we derive and compare the expressions of the time uncertainty in quantizations that use as evolution parameter either the background or the rainbow time coordinates. These two possibilities can be regarded as corresponding to perturbative and nonperturbative quantization schemes, respectively. We show that, while a nonvanishing time uncertainty is generically unavoidable in a perturbative framework, an infinite time resolution can in fact be achieved in a nonperturbative quantization for the whole family of doubly special relativity theories with unbounded physical energy

Measured performance of a 3 ton LiBr absorption water chiller and its effect on cooling system operation

Science.gov (United States)

Namkoong, D.

1976-01-01

A three ton lithium bromide absorption water chiller was tested for a number of conditions involving hot water input, chilled water, and the cooling water. The primary influences on chiller capacity were the hot water inlet temperature and the cooling water inlet temperature. One combination of these two parameters extended the output to as much as 125% of design capacity, but no combination could lower the capacity to below 60% of design. A cooling system was conceptually designed so that it could provide several modes of operation. Such flexibility is needed for any solar cooling system to be able to accommodate the varying solar energy collection and the varying building demand. It was concluded that a three-ton absorption water chiller with the kind of performance that was measured can be incorporated into a cooling system such as that proposed, to provide efficient cooling over the specified ranges of operating conditions.

Measured performance of a 3-ton LiBr absorption water chiller and its effect on cooling system operation

Science.gov (United States)

Namkoong, D.

1976-01-01

A 3-ton lithium bromide absorption water chiller was tested for a number of conditions involving hot-water input, chilled water, and the cooling water. The primary influences on chiller capacity were the hot water inlet temperature and the cooling water inlet temperature. One combination of these two parameters extended the output to as much as 125% of design capacity, but no combination could lower the capacity to below 60% of design. A cooling system was conceptually designed so that it could provide several modes of operation. Such flexibility is needed for any solar cooling system to be able to accommodate the varying solar energy collection and the varying building demand. It is concluded that a 3-ton absorption water chiller with the kind of performance that was measured can be incorporated into a cooling system such as that proposed, to provide efficient cooling over the specified ranges of operating conditions.

A very cool cooling system

CERN Multimedia

Antonella Del Rosso

2015-01-01

The NA62 Gigatracker is a jewel of technology: its sensor, which delivers the time of the crossing particles with a precision of less than 200 picoseconds (better than similar LHC detectors), has a cooling system that might become the precursor to a completely new detector technique.   The 115 metre long vacuum tank of the NA62 experiment. The NA62 Gigatracker (GTK) is composed of a set of three innovative silicon pixel detectors, whose job is to measure the arrival time and the position of the incoming beam particles. Installed in the heart of the NA62 detector, the silicon sensors are cooled down (to about -20 degrees Celsius) by a microfluidic silicon device. “The cooling system is needed to remove the heat produced by the readout chips the silicon sensor is bonded to,” explains Alessandro Mapelli, microsystems engineer working in the Physics department. “For the NA62 Gigatracker we have designed a cooling plate on top of which both the silicon sensor and the...

On Evaluation of Recharge Model Uncertainty: a Priori and a Posteriori

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ming Ye; Karl Pohlmann; Jenny Chapman; David Shafer

2006-01-01

Hydrologic environments are open and complex, rendering them prone to multiple interpretations and mathematical descriptions. Hydrologic analyses typically rely on a single conceptual-mathematical model, which ignores conceptual model uncertainty and may result in bias in predictions and under-estimation of predictive uncertainty. This study is to assess conceptual model uncertainty residing in five recharge models developed to date by different researchers based on different theories for Nevada and Death Valley area, CA. A recently developed statistical method, Maximum Likelihood Bayesian Model Averaging (MLBMA), is utilized for this analysis. In a Bayesian framework, the recharge model uncertainty is assessed, a priori, using expert judgments collected through an expert elicitation in the form of prior probabilities of the models. The uncertainty is then evaluated, a posteriori, by updating the prior probabilities to estimate posterior model probability. The updating is conducted through maximum likelihood inverse modeling by calibrating the Death Valley Regional Flow System (DVRFS) model corresponding to each recharge model against observations of head and flow. Calibration results of DVRFS for the five recharge models are used to estimate three information criteria (AIC, BIC, and KIC) used to rank and discriminate these models. Posterior probabilities of the five recharge models, evaluated using KIC, are used as weights to average head predictions, which gives posterior mean and variance. The posterior quantities incorporate both parametric and conceptual model uncertainties

Quantification of margins and mixed uncertainties using evidence theory and stochastic expansions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shah, Harsheel; Hosder, Serhat; Winter, Tyler

2015-01-01

The objective of this paper is to implement Dempster–Shafer Theory of Evidence (DSTE) in the presence of mixed (aleatory and multiple sources of epistemic) uncertainty to the reliability and performance assessment of complex engineering systems through the use of quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) methodology. This study focuses on quantifying the simulation uncertainties, both in the design condition and the performance boundaries along with the determination of margins. To address the possibility of multiple sources and intervals for epistemic uncertainty characterization, DSTE is used for uncertainty quantification. An approach to incorporate aleatory uncertainty in Dempster–Shafer structures is presented by discretizing the aleatory variable distributions into sets of intervals. In view of excessive computational costs for large scale applications and repetitive simulations needed for DSTE analysis, a stochastic response surface based on point-collocation non-intrusive polynomial chaos (NIPC) has been implemented as the surrogate for the model response. The technique is demonstrated on a model problem with non-linear analytical functions representing the outputs and performance boundaries of two coupled systems. Finally, the QMU approach is demonstrated on a multi-disciplinary analysis of a high speed civil transport (HSCT). - Highlights: • Quantification of margins and uncertainties (QMU) methodology with evidence theory. • Treatment of both inherent and epistemic uncertainties within evidence theory. • Stochastic expansions for representation of performance metrics and boundaries. • Demonstration of QMU on an analytical problem. • QMU analysis applied to an aerospace system (high speed civil transport)

Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

2014-01-01

uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

ACCOUNTiNG, ENGINEERING, OR ADVERTISING? LIMITED LIABILITY, THE COMPANY PROSPECTUS, AND THE LANGUAGE OF UNCERTAINTY IN VICTORIAN BRITAIN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wade E. Shilts

2004-01-01

Full Text Available This paper looks at a particularly puzzling historical example of delay in the use of the law, the under-use by Victorian Britain of the general incorporation statutes passed between 1844 and 1862. Comparison of the rhetoric of company prospectuses of 1824-1862 and 1898 suggests that uncertainty about the meaning of “incorporation with limited liability” among those who might have benefited from it may have persisted for decades following the statute’s passage. Continuing uncertainty meant continuing interpretation costs, and continuing interpretation costs meant insufficient interpretation: until each law user involved with an enterprise interpreted and came to understand the rule’s meaning, less than fully realized.

INTERIM REPORT IMPROVED METHODS FOR INCORPORATING RISK IN DECISION MAKING

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Clausen, M. J.; Fraley, D. W.; Denning, R. S.

1980-08-01

This paper reports observations and preliminary investigations in the first phase of a research program covering methodologies for making safety-related decisions. The objective has been to gain insight into NRC perceptions of the value of formal decision methods, their possible applications, and how risk is, or may be, incorporated in decision making. The perception of formal decision making techniques, held by various decision makers, and what may be done to improve them, were explored through interviews with NRC staff. An initial survey of decision making methods, an assessment of the applicability of formal methods vis-a-vis the available information, and a review of methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty have also been conducted.

Liquid metal cooled nuclear reactor constructions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aspden, G.J.; Allbeson, K.F.

1984-01-01

In a liquid metal cooled nuclear reactor with a nuclear fuel assembly in a coolant-containing primary vessel housed within a concrete containment vault, there is thermal insulation to protect the concrete, the insulation being disposed between vessel and concrete and being hung from metal structure secured to and projecting from the concrete, the insulation consisting of a plurality of adjoining units each unit incorporating a pack of thermal insulating material and defining a contained void co-extensive with said pack and situated between pack and concrete, the void of each unit being connected to the voids of adjoining units so as to form continuous ducting for a fluid coolant. (author)

Probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Shun-Peng; Huang, Hong-Zhong; Peng, Weiwen; Wang, Hai-Kun; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2016-01-01

A probabilistic Physics of Failure-based framework for fatigue life prediction of aircraft gas turbine discs operating under uncertainty is developed. The framework incorporates the overall uncertainties appearing in a structural integrity assessment. A comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) procedure is presented to quantify multiple types of uncertainty using multiplicative and additive UQ methods. In addition, the factors that contribute the most to the resulting output uncertainty are investigated and identified for uncertainty reduction in decision-making. A high prediction accuracy of the proposed framework is validated through a comparison of model predictions to the experimental results of GH4133 superalloy and full-scale tests of aero engine high-pressure turbine discs. - Highlights: • A probabilistic PoF-based framework for fatigue life prediction is proposed. • A comprehensive procedure forquantifyingmultiple types of uncertaintyis presented. • The factors that contribute most to the resulting output uncertainty are identified. • The proposed frameworkdemonstrates high prediction accuracybyfull-scale tests.

Stochastic goal programming based groundwater remediation management under human-health-risk uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Jing; He, Li; Lu, Hongwei; Fan, Xing

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We propose an integrated optimal groundwater remediation design approach. • The approach can address stochasticity in carcinogenic risks. • Goal programming is used to make the system approaching to ideal operation and remediation effects. • The uncertainty in slope factor is evaluated under different confidence levels. • Optimal strategies are obtained to support remediation design under uncertainty. - Abstract: An optimal design approach for groundwater remediation is developed through incorporating numerical simulation, health risk assessment, uncertainty analysis and nonlinear optimization within a general framework. Stochastic analysis and goal programming are introduced into the framework to handle uncertainties in real-world groundwater remediation systems. Carcinogenic risks associated with remediation actions are further evaluated at four confidence levels. The differences between ideal and predicted constraints are minimized by goal programming. The approach is then applied to a contaminated site in western Canada for creating a set of optimal remediation strategies. Results from the case study indicate that factors including environmental standards, health risks and technical requirements mutually affected and restricted themselves. Stochastic uncertainty existed in the entire process of remediation optimization, which should to be taken into consideration in groundwater remediation design

H/He demixing and the cooling behavior of Saturn

Science.gov (United States)

Püstow, Robert; Nettelmann, Nadine; Lorenzen, Winfried; Redmer, Ronald

2016-03-01

The description of the interior structure and evolution of the Solar System giant planets continues to be a serious challenge. The most prominent example is Saturn for which simple homogeneous evolution models yield ages between 2 and 3 billion years (Gyr), i.e. much shorter than the age of the Solar System of τ⊙ = 4.56 Gyr. It has long been suggested that H/He demixing might occur in the interior of Saturn after the planet has cooled off sufficiently. This incident would mark the begin of an inhomogeneous evolution period in which He droplets sink down and accumulate above the planetary core. The corresponding release of gravitational energy contributes to the intrinsic luminosity of the planet, thereby prolonging its cooling time, perhaps towards the correct value. Such scenarios have been studied in the past on the basis of rather approximate assumptions for the H-He phase diagram. Recently, various ab initio simulations have revealed details of the H-He phase diagram but also of remaining uncertainties (Morales, M.A. et al. [2009]. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA 106, 1324; Morales, M.A. et al. [2013a]. Phys. Rev. B 87, 174105; Lorenzen, W. et al. [2011]. Phys. Rev. B 84, 235109). In this paper we use the new predictions by Lorenzen et al. and modifications thereof to study the inhomogeneous evolution period of Saturn, with resulting values for the onset of H/He phase separation ts , the cooling time τ , and the atmospheric helium abundance y1 . For the planetary interior during the inhomogeneous evolution we assume adiabatic, convective envelopes. We find ts = 1 Gyr, τ = 5.8 Gyr, and y1 = 0.18 , while ts ≊ 2 Gyr for the Morales et al. data, for which we also estimate τ ≈ 5.1 Gyr. On the other hand, reasonable cooling times τ ≈τ⊙ are obtained for shifts of the Lorenzen et al. phase diagram by respectively -1300 K and +500 K, yielding y1 = 0.22 and y1 = 0.06 . More accurate knowledge of H-He phase diagram is necessary to understand cool gas giant

Numerical research of a super-large cooling tower subjected to accidental loads

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Yi; Lin, Feng [Department of Building Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092 (China); Gu, Xianglin, E-mail: gxl@tongji.edu.cn [Department of Building Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092 (China); Lu, Xiaoqin [Guangdong Electric Power Design Institute, Guangzhou 510660 (China)

2014-04-01

With the continued development of nuclear power plants, more and more super-large cooling towers are to be built in China and around the world. For the safe operation of nuclear power plants, research work has been done on the causes of collapse of cooling towers, collapse modes and the secondary disasters caused by the collapse of cooling towers. However, the collapse modes and the ground vibration induced by the collapse of cooling towers subjected to the accidental loads have not been fully understood. This paper has been focused on the modes and mechanisms behavior of the collapse of cooling towers subjected to accidental loads. Meanwhile, prediction of the ground vibration due to the collapse of the cooling towers has also been completed in a parallel project. Using dynamic finite element program LS-DYNA, a 3D finite element model for a super-large cooling tower was developed and the nonlinear material models were incorporated. In this paper, four types of accidental loads were considered to trigger the collapse or local failure of the tower, including vehicle collision, airplane impact, local explosion and missile attack. It was found that vehicle collision, missile attack and small TNT equivalent explosives (2 kg, 20 kg, 200 kg) might result in local failure of the cooling tower, however, the tower can still keep stable. On the other hand, large TNT equivalent explosives (2000 kg, 4500 kg) could cause severe damages in the inclined columns of the cooling tower, and lead to progressive collapse of the entire cooling tower. The two kinds of TNT equivalent explosives caused the same collapse mode while the collapsing duration was different. The airplane impacted at the throat of the cooling tower caused the local failure of shell structure of the tower, and then the progressive collapse of the cooling tower happened due to the gravitational action. The resulting collapse mode was different from that triggered by the local explosion.

Numerical research of a super-large cooling tower subjected to accidental loads

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Yi; Lin, Feng; Gu, Xianglin; Lu, Xiaoqin

2014-01-01

With the continued development of nuclear power plants, more and more super-large cooling towers are to be built in China and around the world. For the safe operation of nuclear power plants, research work has been done on the causes of collapse of cooling towers, collapse modes and the secondary disasters caused by the collapse of cooling towers. However, the collapse modes and the ground vibration induced by the collapse of cooling towers subjected to the accidental loads have not been fully understood. This paper has been focused on the modes and mechanisms behavior of the collapse of cooling towers subjected to accidental loads. Meanwhile, prediction of the ground vibration due to the collapse of the cooling towers has also been completed in a parallel project. Using dynamic finite element program LS-DYNA, a 3D finite element model for a super-large cooling tower was developed and the nonlinear material models were incorporated. In this paper, four types of accidental loads were considered to trigger the collapse or local failure of the tower, including vehicle collision, airplane impact, local explosion and missile attack. It was found that vehicle collision, missile attack and small TNT equivalent explosives (2 kg, 20 kg, 200 kg) might result in local failure of the cooling tower, however, the tower can still keep stable. On the other hand, large TNT equivalent explosives (2000 kg, 4500 kg) could cause severe damages in the inclined columns of the cooling tower, and lead to progressive collapse of the entire cooling tower. The two kinds of TNT equivalent explosives caused the same collapse mode while the collapsing duration was different. The airplane impacted at the throat of the cooling tower caused the local failure of shell structure of the tower, and then the progressive collapse of the cooling tower happened due to the gravitational action. The resulting collapse mode was different from that triggered by the local explosion

Measurement of the radiative cooling rates for high-ionization species of krypton using an electron beam ion trap

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Radtke, R.; Biedermann, C.; Fuchs, T.; Fussmann, G.; Beiersdorfer, P.

2000-01-01

We describe a measurement of the radiative cooling rate for krypton made at the Berlin electron beam ion trap (EBIT). The EBIT was tuned to a charge-state distribution approaching the ionization balance of a plasma at a temperature of about 5 keV. To determine the cooling rate, we made use of EBIT's capabilities to sample a wide range of electron-beam energies and distinguish between different radiation channels. We have measured the x-ray emission from bremsstrahlung, radiative recombination, dielectronic recombination, and line radiation following electron-impact excitation. The dominant contribution to the cooling rate is made by the n=3-2, n=4-2,... x rays of the L-shell spectra of krypton, which produce more than 75% of the total radiation loss. A difference with theoretical calculations is noted for the measured total cooling rate. The predicted values are lower by a factor of 1.5-2, depending on the theoretical model. For our measurement of the cooling rate, we estimate an uncertainty interval of 22-30 %. (c) 2000 The American Physical Society

Overview of environmental control aspects for the gas-cooled fast reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nolan, A.M.

1981-05-01

Environmental control aspects relating to release of radionuclides have been analyzed for the Gas-Cooled Fast Reactor (GCFR). Information on environmental control systems was obtained for the most recent GCFR designs, and was used to evaluate the adequacy of these systems. The GCFR has been designed by the General Atomic Company as an alternative to other fast breeder reactor designs, such as the Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR). The GCFR design includes mixed oxide fuel and helium coolant. The environmental impact of expected radionuclide releases from normal operation of the GCFR was evaluated using estimated collective dose equivalent commitments resulting from 1 year of plant operation. The results were compared to equivalent estimates for the Light Water Reactor (LWR) and High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR). A discussion of uncertainties in system performances, tritium production rates, and radiation quality factors for tritium is included

Magnetocaloric Effect and Thermoelectric Cooling - A Synergistic Cooling Technology

Science.gov (United States)

2018-01-16

Thermoelectric Cooling - A Synergistic Cooling Technology Sb. GRANT NUMBER N00173-14-1-G016 Sc. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 82-2020-17 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d...Magnetocaloric Effect and Thermoelectric Cooling - A Synergistic Cooling Technology NRL Grant N00173-14-l-G016 CODE 8200: Spacecraft Engineering Department...82-11-0 1: Space and Space Systems Technology General Engineering & Research, L.L.C. Technical & Administrative point of contact: Dr. Robin

Structure and oxygen incorporation in low pressure sputtered YBCO films

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chaudhary, S.; Pandya, D. K.; Kashyap, S. C.

2002-01-01

Thin films of YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7- δ (YBCO) have been successfully grown by reactive RF-magnetron sputtering technique at low pressure. The oxygen partial pressure of 0.95 mTorr, a total pressure (argon and oxygen) of 1.9 mTorr, and a substrate temperature of 775 grad C resulted in good quality films with T C (R=0) = 85.3 K and J Cmag (4.2 K) ≅ 2x10 7 A/cm 2 . The incorporation of oxygen in the as-grown films has been controlled by using different ambient - oxygen, air or argon during in-situ cooling. The superconducting behaviour of the films was studied using resistance-temperature and low field ac-susceptibility measurements and correlated with their structure. All the films exhibited metallic conduction in the normal state. The oxygen- and air- cooled films were superconducting, possessing the usual orthorhombic structure. The argon-cooled films were non-superconducting possessing the tetragonal structure, thus implying that the structure of the film during deposition is tetragonal which transforms to either of the oxygen rich orthorhombic-I or -II phases depending upon the oxygen/air ambient. The 'δ' values of 0.14, 0.32 and 0.70 and higher 'c'-parameters of 1.1785, 1.180 and 1.183 nm have been obtained for oxygen, air and argon cooled films respectively. (Authors)

WORKSHOP: Beam cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1994-01-01

Cooling - the control of unruly particles to provide well-behaved beams - has become a major new tool in accelerator physics. The main approaches of electron cooling pioneered by Gersh Budker at Novosibirsk and stochastic cooling by Simon van der Meer at CERN, are now complemented by additional ideas, such as laser cooling of ions and ionization cooling of muons

Understanding uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Lindley, Dennis V

2013-01-01

Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

Uncertainty analysis of time-dependent nonlinear systems: theory and application to transient thermal hydraulics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barhen, J.; Bjerke, M.A.; Cacuci, D.G.; Mullins, C.B.; Wagschal, G.G.

1982-01-01

An advanced methodology for performing systematic uncertainty analysis of time-dependent nonlinear systems is presented. This methodology includes a capability for reducing uncertainties in system parameters and responses by using Bayesian inference techniques to consistently combine prior knowledge with additional experimental information. The determination of best estimates for the system parameters, for the responses, and for their respective covariances is treated as a time-dependent constrained minimization problem. Three alternative formalisms for solving this problem are developed. The two ''off-line'' formalisms, with and without ''foresight'' characteristics, require the generation of a complete sensitivity data base prior to performing the uncertainty analysis. The ''online'' formalism, in which uncertainty analysis is performed interactively with the system analysis code, is best suited for treatment of large-scale highly nonlinear time-dependent problems. This methodology is applied to the uncertainty analysis of a transient upflow of a high pressure water heat transfer experiment. For comparison, an uncertainty analysis using sensitivities computed by standard response surface techniques is also performed. The results of the analysis indicate the following. Major reduction of the discrepancies in the calculation/experiment ratios is achieved by using the new methodology. Incorporation of in-bundle measurements in the uncertainty analysis significantly reduces system uncertainties. Accuracy of sensitivities generated by response-surface techniques should be carefully assessed prior to using them as a basis for uncertainty analyses of transient reactor safety problems

SSTAR: The US lead-cooled fast reactor (LFR)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, Craig F.; Halsey, William G.; Brown, Neil W.; Sienicki, James J.; Moisseytsev, Anton; Wade, David C.

2008-01-01

It is widely recognized that the developing world is the next area for major energy demand growth, including demand for new and advanced nuclear energy systems. With limited existing industrial and grid infrastructures, there will be an important need for future nuclear energy systems that can provide small or moderate increments of electric power (10-700 MWe) on small or immature grids in developing nations. Most recently, the global nuclear energy partnership (GNEP) has identified, as one of its key objectives, the development and demonstration of concepts for small and medium-sized reactors (SMRs) that can be globally deployed while assuring a high level of proliferation resistance. Lead-cooled systems offer several key advantages in meeting these goals. The small lead-cooled fast reactor concept known as the small secure transportable autonomous reactor (SSTAR) has been under ongoing development as part of the US advanced nuclear energy systems programs. It is a system designed to provide energy security to developing nations while incorporating features to achieve nonproliferation goals, anticipating GNEP objectives. This paper presents the motivation for development of internationally deployable nuclear energy systems as well as a summary of one such system, SSTAR, which is the US Generation IV lead-cooled fast reactor system

Thermal radiation characteristics and direct evidence of tungsten cooling on the way to nanostructure formation on its surface

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takamura, S., E-mail: takamura@aitech.ac.jp [Faculty of Engineering, Aichi Institute of Technology, Yakusa-cho, Toyota 470-0392 (Japan); Miyamoto, T. [Faculty of Engineering, Aichi Institute of Technology, Yakusa-cho, Toyota 470-0392 (Japan); Ohno, N. [Graduate School of Engineering, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8603 (Japan)

2013-07-15

The physical properties of tungsten with nanostructure on its surface are investigated focusing on the thermal radiation and cooling characteristics. First, direct evidence of substantial W surface cooling has been clearly shown with use of a very thin thermocouple inserted into W target, which solves an uncertainty associated with a radiation thermometer. Second, the above measurements of W surface temperature make it possible to estimate quantitatively the total emissivity from which we may evaluate the radiative power through the Stefan–Boltzmann equation, which is very important for mitigation evaluation of a serious plasma heat load to the plasma-facing component.

Thermal radiation characteristics and direct evidence of tungsten cooling on the way to nanostructure formation on its surface

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takamura, S.; Miyamoto, T.; Ohno, N.

2013-01-01

The physical properties of tungsten with nanostructure on its surface are investigated focusing on the thermal radiation and cooling characteristics. First, direct evidence of substantial W surface cooling has been clearly shown with use of a very thin thermocouple inserted into W target, which solves an uncertainty associated with a radiation thermometer. Second, the above measurements of W surface temperature make it possible to estimate quantitatively the total emissivity from which we may evaluate the radiative power through the Stefan–Boltzmann equation, which is very important for mitigation evaluation of a serious plasma heat load to the plasma-facing component

Uncertainties in HTGR neutron-physical characteristics due to computational errors and technological tolerances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glushkov, E.S.; Grebennik, V.N.; Davidenko, V.G.; Kosovskij, V.G.; Smirnov, O.N.; Tsibul'skij, V.F.

1991-01-01

The paper is dedicated to the consideration of uncertainties is neutron-physical characteristics (NPC) of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGR) with a core as spherical fuel element bed, which are caused by calculations from HTGR parameters mean values affecting NPC. Among NPC are: effective multiplication factor, burnup depth, reactivity effect, control element worth, distribution of neutrons and heat release over a reactor core, etc. The short description of calculated methods and codes used for HTGR calculations in the USSR is given and evaluations of NPC uncertainties of the methodical character are presented. Besides, the analysis of the effect technological deviations in parameters of reactor main elements such as uranium amount in the spherical fuel element, number of neutron-absorbing impurities in the reactor core and reflector, etc, upon the NPC is carried out. Results of some experimental studies of NPC of critical assemblies with graphite moderator are given as applied to HTGR. The comparison of calculations results and experiments on critical assemblies has made it possible to evaluate uncertainties of calculated description of HTGR NPC. (author). 8 refs, 8 figs, 6 tabs

Uncertainty in exposure of underground miners to radon daughters and the effect of uncertainty on risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-10-01

Studies of underground miners provide the principal basis for assessing the risk from radon daughter exposure. An important problem in all epidemiological studies of underground miners is the reliability of the estimates of the miners' exposures. This study examines the various sources of uncertainty in exposure estimation for the principal epidemiologic studies reported in the literature including the temporal and spatial variability of radon sources and, with the passage of time, changes to both mining methods and ventilation conditions. Uncertainties about work histories and the role of other hard rock mining experience are also discussed. The report also describes two statistical approaches, both based on Bayesian methods, by which the effects on the estimated risk coefficient of uncertainty in exposure (WLM) can be examined. One approach requires only an estimate of the cumulative WLM exposure of a group of miners, an estimate of the number of (excess) lung cancers potentially attributable to that exposure, and a specification of the uncertainty about the cumulative exposure of the group. The second approach is based on a linear regression model which incorporates errors (uncertainty) in the independent variable (WLM) and allows the dependent variable (cases) to be Poisson distributed. The method permits the calculation of marginal probability distributions for either slope (risk coefficient) or intercept. The regression model approach is applied to several published data sets from epidemiological studies of miners. Specific results are provided for each data set and apparent differences in risk coefficients are discussed. The studies of U.S. uranium miners, Ontario uranium miners and Czechoslovakian uranium miners are argued to provide the best basis for risk estimation at this time. In general terms, none of the analyses performed are inconsistent with a linear exposure-effect relation. Based on analyses of the overall miner groups, the most likely ranges

Review of monitoring uncertainty requirements in the CDM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shishlov, Igor; Bellassen, Valentin

2014-10-01

In order to ensure the environmental integrity of carbon offset projects, emission reductions certified under the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) have to be 'real, measurable and additional', which is ensured through the monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) process. MRV, however, comes at a cost that ranges from several cents to EUR1.20 and above per ton of CO 2 e depending on the project type. This article analyzes monitoring uncertainty requirements for carbon offset projects with a particular focus on the trade-off between monitoring stringency and cost. To this end, we review existing literature, scrutinize both overarching monitoring guidelines and the 10 most-used methodologies, and finally we analyze four case studies. We find that there is indeed a natural trade-off between the stringency and the cost of monitoring, which if not addressed properly may become a major barrier for the implementation of offset projects in some sectors. We demonstrate that this trade-off has not been systematically addressed in the overarching CDM guidelines and that there are only limited incentives to reduce monitoring uncertainty. Some methodologies and calculation tools as well as some other offset standards, however, do incorporate provisions for a trade-off between monitoring costs and stringency. These provisions may take the form of discounting emissions reductions based on the level of monitoring uncertainty - or more implicitly through allowing a project developer to choose between monitoring a given parameter and using a conservative default value. Our findings support the introduction of an uncertainty standard under the CDM for more comprehensive, yet cost-efficient, accounting for monitoring uncertainty in carbon offset projects. (authors)

Energy and Uncertainty in General Relativity

Science.gov (United States)

Cooperstock, F. I.; Dupre, M. J.

2018-03-01

The issue of energy and its potential localizability in general relativity has challenged physicists for more than a century. Many non-invariant measures were proposed over the years but an invariant measure was never found. We discovered the invariant localized energy measure by expanding the domain of investigation from space to spacetime. We note from relativity that the finiteness of the velocity of propagation of interactions necessarily induces indefiniteness in measurements. This is because the elements of actual physical systems being measured as well as their detectors are characterized by entire four-velocity fields, which necessarily leads to information from a measured system being processed by the detector in a spread of time. General relativity adds additional indefiniteness because of the variation in proper time between elements. The uncertainty is encapsulated in a generalized uncertainty principle, in parallel with that of Heisenberg, which incorporates the localized contribution of gravity to energy. This naturally leads to a generalized uncertainty principle for momentum as well. These generalized forms and the gravitational contribution to localized energy would be expected to be of particular importance in the regimes of ultra-strong gravitational fields. We contrast our invariant spacetime energy measure with the standard 3-space energy measure which is familiar from special relativity, appreciating why general relativity demands a measure in spacetime as opposed to 3-space. We illustrate the misconceptions by certain authors of our approach.

Experimental evaluation of cooling efficiency of the high performance cooling device

Science.gov (United States)

Nemec, Patrik; Malcho, Milan

2016-06-01

This work deal with experimental evaluation of cooling efficiency of cooling device capable transfer high heat fluxes from electric elements to the surrounding. The work contain description of cooling device, working principle of cooling device, construction of cooling device. Experimental part describe the measuring method of device cooling efficiency evaluation. The work results are presented in graphic visualization of temperature dependence of the contact area surface between cooling device evaporator and electronic components on the loaded heat of electronic components in range from 250 to 740 W and temperature dependence of the loop thermosiphon condenser surface on the loaded heat of electronic components in range from 250 to 740 W.

Experimental evaluation of cooling efficiency of the high performance cooling device

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nemec, Patrik, E-mail: patrik.nemec@fstroj.uniza.sk; Malcho, Milan, E-mail: milan.malcho@fstroj.uniza.sk [University of Žilina, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Department of Power Engineering, Univerzitna 1, 010 26 Žilina (Slovakia)

2016-06-30

This work deal with experimental evaluation of cooling efficiency of cooling device capable transfer high heat fluxes from electric elements to the surrounding. The work contain description of cooling device, working principle of cooling device, construction of cooling device. Experimental part describe the measuring method of device cooling efficiency evaluation. The work results are presented in graphic visualization of temperature dependence of the contact area surface between cooling device evaporator and electronic components on the loaded heat of electronic components in range from 250 to 740 W and temperature dependence of the loop thermosiphon condenser surface on the loaded heat of electronic components in range from 250 to 740 W.

An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

2009-01-01

Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

Addressing imperfect maintenance modelling uncertainty in unavailability and cost based optimization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanchez, Ana; Carlos, Sofia; Martorell, Sebastian; Villanueva, Jose F.

2009-01-01

Optimization of testing and maintenance activities performed in the different systems of a complex industrial plant is of great interest as the plant availability and economy strongly depend on the maintenance activities planned. Traditionally, two types of models, i.e. deterministic and probabilistic, have been considered to simulate the impact of testing and maintenance activities on equipment unavailability and the cost involved. Both models present uncertainties that are often categorized as either aleatory or epistemic uncertainties. The second group applies when there is limited knowledge on the proper model to represent a problem, and/or the values associated to the model parameters, so the results of the calculation performed with them incorporate uncertainty. This paper addresses the problem of testing and maintenance optimization based on unavailability and cost criteria and considering epistemic uncertainty in the imperfect maintenance modelling. It is framed as a multiple criteria decision making problem where unavailability and cost act as uncertain and conflicting decision criteria. A tolerance interval based approach is used to address uncertainty with regard to effectiveness parameter and imperfect maintenance model embedded within a multiple-objective genetic algorithm. A case of application for a stand-by safety related system of a nuclear power plant is presented. The results obtained in this application show the importance of considering uncertainties in the modelling of imperfect maintenance, as the optimal solutions found are associated with a large uncertainty that influences the final decision making depending on, for example, if the decision maker is risk averse or risk neutral

Addressing imperfect maintenance modelling uncertainty in unavailability and cost based optimization

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanchez, Ana [Department of Statistics and Operational Research, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Camino de Vera, s/n, 46071 Valencia (Spain); Carlos, Sofia [Department of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Camino de Vera, s/n, 46071 Valencia (Spain); Martorell, Sebastian [Department of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Camino de Vera, s/n, 46071 Valencia (Spain)], E-mail: smartore@iqn.upv.es; Villanueva, Jose F. [Department of Chemical and Nuclear Engineering, Polytechnic University of Valencia, Camino de Vera, s/n, 46071 Valencia (Spain)

2009-01-15

Optimization of testing and maintenance activities performed in the different systems of a complex industrial plant is of great interest as the plant availability and economy strongly depend on the maintenance activities planned. Traditionally, two types of models, i.e. deterministic and probabilistic, have been considered to simulate the impact of testing and maintenance activities on equipment unavailability and the cost involved. Both models present uncertainties that are often categorized as either aleatory or epistemic uncertainties. The second group applies when there is limited knowledge on the proper model to represent a problem, and/or the values associated to the model parameters, so the results of the calculation performed with them incorporate uncertainty. This paper addresses the problem of testing and maintenance optimization based on unavailability and cost criteria and considering epistemic uncertainty in the imperfect maintenance modelling. It is framed as a multiple criteria decision making problem where unavailability and cost act as uncertain and conflicting decision criteria. A tolerance interval based approach is used to address uncertainty with regard to effectiveness parameter and imperfect maintenance model embedded within a multiple-objective genetic algorithm. A case of application for a stand-by safety related system of a nuclear power plant is presented. The results obtained in this application show the importance of considering uncertainties in the modelling of imperfect maintenance, as the optimal solutions found are associated with a large uncertainty that influences the final decision making depending on, for example, if the decision maker is risk averse or risk neutral.

Cooling facility of nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arai, Kenji; Nagasaki, Hideo.

1992-01-01

In a cooling device of a nuclear power plant, an exhaust pipe for an incondensible gas is branched. One of the branched exhaust pipes is opened in a pressure suppression pool water in a suppression chamber containing pool water and the other is opened at a lower portion of a dry well incorporating a pressure vessel. In a state where the pressure in the dry well is higher than that in the suppression chamber, an off-gas is exhausted effectively by way of the exhaustion pipe in communication with the suppression chamber. In a state where there is no difference between the pressures and the opening end of the exhaustion pipe in communication with the suppression chamber is sealed with water, off-gas is exhausted by way of the exhaustion pipe in communication with the lower portion of the dry well. Then, since the incondensible gas in a heat transfer pipe is not accumulated, after-heat can be removed efficiently. Satisfactory cooling is maintained even after the coincidence of the pressures in the dry well with that in the suppression chamber, to decrease a pressure in a reactor container. (N.H.)

Cooling towers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boernke, F.

1975-01-01

The need for the use of cooling systems in power plant engineering is dealt with from the point of view of a non-polluting form of energy production. The various cooling system concepts up to the modern natural-draught cooling towers are illustrated by examples. (TK/AK) [de

Thermal analysis of lithium cooled natural circulation loop module for fuel rod testing in the Fast Flux Test Facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eyler, L.L.; Kim, D.; Stover, R.L.; Beaver, T.R.

1987-01-01

Maximum heat removal capability of a lithium cooled natural circulation fuel rod test module design is determined. Loop geometry is optimized within limitations of design specifications for nominal operation temperatures, materials, and test module environment. Results provide test module operation limits and range of potential uncertainties. 3 refs., 12 figs

Recognizing and responding to uncertainty: a grounded theory of nurses' uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Cranley, Lisa A; Doran, Diane M; Tourangeau, Ann E; Kushniruk, Andre; Nagle, Lynn

2012-08-01

There has been little research to date exploring nurses' uncertainty in their practice. Understanding nurses' uncertainty is important because it has potential implications for how care is delivered. The purpose of this study is to develop a substantive theory to explain how staff nurses experience and respond to uncertainty in their practice. Between 2006 and 2008, a grounded theory study was conducted that included in-depth semi-structured interviews. Fourteen staff nurses working in adult medical-surgical intensive care units at two teaching hospitals in Ontario, Canada, participated in the study. The theory recognizing and responding to uncertainty characterizes the processes through which nurses' uncertainty manifested and how it was managed. Recognizing uncertainty involved the processes of assessing, reflecting, questioning, and/or being unable to predict aspects of the patient situation. Nurses' responses to uncertainty highlighted the cognitive-affective strategies used to manage uncertainty. Study findings highlight the importance of acknowledging uncertainty and having collegial support to manage uncertainty. The theory adds to our understanding the processes involved in recognizing uncertainty, strategies and outcomes of managing uncertainty, and influencing factors. Tailored nursing education programs should be developed to assist nurses in developing skills in articulating and managing their uncertainty. Further research is needed to extend, test and refine the theory of recognizing and responding to uncertainty to develop strategies for managing uncertainty. This theory advances the nursing perspective of uncertainty in clinical practice. The theory is relevant to nurses who are faced with uncertainty and complex clinical decisions, to managers who support nurses in their clinical decision-making, and to researchers who investigate ways to improve decision-making and care delivery. ©2012 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Uncertainties in the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman source through nonlinear stochastic inversion of tsunami waves

Science.gov (United States)

Venugopal, M.; Roy, D.; Rajendran, K.; Guillas, S.; Dias, F.

2017-01-01

Numerical inversions for earthquake source parameters from tsunami wave data usually incorporate subjective elements to stabilize the search. In addition, noisy and possibly insufficient data result in instability and non-uniqueness in most deterministic inversions, which are barely acknowledged. Here, we employ the satellite altimetry data for the 2004 Sumatra–Andaman tsunami event to invert the source parameters. We also include kinematic parameters that improve the description of tsunami generation and propagation, especially near the source. Using a finite fault model that represents the extent of rupture and the geometry of the trench, we perform a new type of nonlinear joint inversion of the slips, rupture velocities and rise times with minimal a priori constraints. Despite persistently good waveform fits, large uncertainties in the joint parameter distribution constitute a remarkable feature of the inversion. These uncertainties suggest that objective inversion strategies should incorporate more sophisticated physical models of seabed deformation in order to significantly improve the performance of early warning systems. PMID:28989311

Study of the comparative dynamics of the incorporation of tissue free-water tritium (TFWT) in bulrushes (Typha latifolia) and carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the Almaraz nuclear power plant cooling reservoir

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Baeza, A. [Department of Applied Physics, Faculty of Veterinary, University of Extremadura, Avda de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain)], E-mail: ymiralle@unex.es; Garcia, E. [Department of Applied Physics, Technical Forest Engineering School, University of Extremadura, 10600 (Plasencia) Caceres (Spain); Paniagua, J.M. [Department of Applied Physics, Polytechnic School, University of Extremadura, Avda de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain); Rodriguez, A. [Department of Applied Physics, Faculty of Veterinary, University of Extremadura, Avda de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain)

2009-03-15

The Almaraz nuclear power plant (Spain) uses the water of Arrocampo reservoir for cooling, and consequently raises the radioactive levels of the aquatic ecosystem of this reservoir. From July 2002 to June 2005, monthly samples of surface water, bulrushes (Typha latifolia) and carp (Cyprinus carpio) were collected from this reservoir. They were analyzed to determine the temporal evolution of the levels of {sup 3}H in surface water and of its transfer from the surface water to free-water in the tissues (TFWT) of the aforementioned two organisms. The tritium levels in the surface water oscillate with a biannual period, with their values in the study period ranging between 53 and 433 Bq/L. The incorporation of tritium to bulrushes and carp was fairly similar, the respective mean concentration factors being 0.74 and 0.8 (unitless, as Bq/L tissue water per Bq/L reservoir water). The temporal evolution of the levels fairly closely followed that observed for the surface water tritium, although detailed analysis showed the dominant periodicity for the bulrushes to be annual. This difference reflects the influence on the incorporation of tritium to bulrushes of diverse environmental and metabolic factors, especially evapotranspiration and the seasonal growth of this plant.

Study of the comparative dynamics of the incorporation of tissue free-water tritium (TFWT) in bulrushes (Typha latifolia) and carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the Almaraz nuclear power plant cooling reservoir

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baeza, A.; Garcia, E.; Paniagua, J.M.; Rodriguez, A.

2009-01-01

The Almaraz nuclear power plant (Spain) uses the water of Arrocampo reservoir for cooling, and consequently raises the radioactive levels of the aquatic ecosystem of this reservoir. From July 2002 to June 2005, monthly samples of surface water, bulrushes (Typha latifolia) and carp (Cyprinus carpio) were collected from this reservoir. They were analyzed to determine the temporal evolution of the levels of 3 H in surface water and of its transfer from the surface water to free-water in the tissues (TFWT) of the aforementioned two organisms. The tritium levels in the surface water oscillate with a biannual period, with their values in the study period ranging between 53 and 433 Bq/L. The incorporation of tritium to bulrushes and carp was fairly similar, the respective mean concentration factors being 0.74 and 0.8 (unitless, as Bq/L tissue water per Bq/L reservoir water). The temporal evolution of the levels fairly closely followed that observed for the surface water tritium, although detailed analysis showed the dominant periodicity for the bulrushes to be annual. This difference reflects the influence on the incorporation of tritium to bulrushes of diverse environmental and metabolic factors, especially evapotranspiration and the seasonal growth of this plant

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Cooling tower calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simonkova, J.

1988-01-01

The problems are summed up of the dynamic calculation of cooling towers with forced and natural air draft. The quantities and relations are given characterizing the simultaneous exchange of momentum, heat and mass in evaporative water cooling by atmospheric air in the packings of cooling towers. The method of solution is clarified in the calculation of evaporation criteria and thermal characteristics of countercurrent and cross current cooling systems. The procedure is demonstrated of the calculation of cooling towers, and correction curves and the effect assessed of the operating mode at constant air number or constant outlet air volume flow on their course in ventilator cooling towers. In cooling towers with the natural air draft the flow unevenness is assessed of water and air relative to its effect on the resulting cooling efficiency of the towers. The calculation is demonstrated of thermal and resistance response curves and cooling curves of hydraulically unevenly loaded towers owing to the water flow rate parameter graded radially by 20% along the cross-section of the packing. Flow rate unevenness of air due to wind impact on the outlet air flow from the tower significantly affects the temperatures of cooled water in natural air draft cooling towers of a design with lower demands on aerodynamics, as early as at wind velocity of 2 m.s -1 as was demonstrated on a concrete example. (author). 11 figs., 10 refs

Uncertainty modeling of CCS investment strategy in China's power sector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhou, Wenji; Zhu, Bing; Fuss, Sabine; Szolgayova, Jana; Obersteiner, Michael; Fei, Weiyang

2010-01-01

The increasing pressure resulting from the need for CO 2 mitigation is in conflict with the predominance of coal in China's energy structure. A possible solution to this tension between climate change and fossil fuel consumption fact could be the introduction of the carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. However, high cost and other problems give rise to great uncertainty in R and D and popularization of carbon capture technology. This paper presents a real options model incorporating policy uncertainty described by carbon price scenarios (including stochasticity), allowing for possible technological change. This model is further used to determine the best strategy for investing in CCS technology in an uncertain environment in China and the effect of climate policy on the decision-making process of investment into carbon-saving technologies.

A general method dealing with correlations in uncertainty propagation in fault trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qin Zhang

1989-01-01

This paper deals with the correlations among the failure probabilities (frequencies) of not only the identical basic events but also other basic events in a fault tree. It presents a general and simple method to include these correlations in uncertainty propagation. Two examples illustrate this method and show that neglecting these correlations results in large underestimation of the top event failure probability (frequency). One is the failure of the primary pump in a chemical reactor cooling system, the other example is an accident to a road transport truck carrying toxic waste. (author)

Incorporating covariance estimation uncertainty in spatial sampling design for prediction with trans-Gaussian random fields

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gunter eSpöck

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Recently, Spock and Pilz [38], demonstratedthat the spatial sampling design problem forthe Bayesian linear kriging predictor can betransformed to an equivalent experimentaldesign problem for a linear regression modelwith stochastic regression coefficients anduncorrelated errors. The stochastic regressioncoefficients derive from the polar spectralapproximation of the residual process. Thus,standard optimal convex experimental designtheory can be used to calculate optimal spatialsampling designs. The design functionals ̈considered in Spock and Pilz [38] did nottake into account the fact that kriging isactually a plug-in predictor which uses theestimated covariance function. The resultingoptimal designs were close to space-fillingconfigurations, because the design criteriondid not consider the uncertainty of thecovariance function.In this paper we also assume that thecovariance function is estimated, e.g., byrestricted maximum likelihood (REML. Wethen develop a design criterion that fully takesaccount of the covariance uncertainty. Theresulting designs are less regular and space-filling compared to those ignoring covarianceuncertainty. The new designs, however, alsorequire some closely spaced samples in orderto improve the estimate of the covariancefunction. We also relax the assumption ofGaussian observations and assume that thedata is transformed to Gaussianity by meansof the Box-Cox transformation. The resultingprediction method is known as trans-Gaussiankriging. We apply the Smith and Zhu [37]approach to this kriging method and show thatresulting optimal designs also depend on theavailable data. We illustrate our results witha data set of monthly rainfall measurementsfrom Upper Austria.

Topology optimization for optical projection lithography with manufacturing uncertainties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Mingdong; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov; Sigmund, Ole

2014-01-01

to manufacturing without additional optical proximity correction (OPC). The performance of the optimized device is robust toward the considered process variations. With the proposed unified approach, the design for photolithography is achieved by considering the optimal device performance and manufacturability......This article presents a topology optimization approach for micro-and nano-devices fabricated by optical projection lithography. Incorporating the photolithography process and the manufacturing uncertainties into the topology optimization process results in a binary mask that can be sent directly...

Cooling Tower Overhaul of Secondary Cooling System in HANARO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Park, Young Chul; Lee, Young Sub; Jung, Hoan Sung; Lim, In Chul [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2007-07-01

HANARO, an open-tank-in-pool type research reactor of 30 MWth power in Korea, has been operating normally since its initial criticality in February, 1995. For the last about ten years, A cooling tower of a secondary cooling system has been operated normally in HANARO. Last year, the cooling tower has been overhauled for preservative maintenance including fills, eliminators, wood support, water distribution system, motors, driving shafts, gear reducers, basements, blades and etc. This paper describes the results of the overhaul. As results, it is confirmed that the cooling tower maintains a good operability through a filed test. And a cooling capability will be tested when a wet bulb temperature is maintained about 28 .deg. C in summer and the reactor is operated with the full power.

Cooling Performance of ALIP according to the Air or Sodium Cooling Type

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ye, Huee-Youl; Yoon, Jung; Lee, Tae-Ho [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-05-15

ALIP pumps the liquid sodium by Lorentz force produced by the interaction of induced current in the liquid metal and their associated magnetic field. Even though the efficiency of the ALIP is very low compared to conventional mechanical pumps, it is very useful due to the absence of moving parts, low noise and vibration level, simplicity of flow rate regulation and maintenance, and high temperature operation capability. Problems in utilization of ALIP concern a countermeasure for elevation of internal temperature of the coil due to joule heating and how to increase magnetic flux density of Na channel gap. The conventional ALIP usually used cooling methods by circulating the air or water. On the other hand, GE-Toshiba developed a double stator pump adopting the sodium-immersed self-cooled type, and it recovered the heat loss in sodium. Therefore, the station load factor of the plant could be reduced. In this study, the cooling performance with cooling types of ALIP is analyzed. We developed thermal analysis models to evaluate the cooling performance of air or sodium cooling type of ALIP. The cooling performance is analyzed for operating parameters and evaluated with cooling type. 1-D and 3-D thermal analysis model for IHTS ALIP was developed, and the cooling performance was analyzed for air or sodium cooling type. The cooling performance for air cooling type was better than sodium cooling type at higher air velocity than 0.2 m/s. Also, the air temperature of below 270 .deg. demonstrated the better cooling performance as compared to sodium.

Production scheduling of a lignite mine under quality and reserves uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galetakis, Michael; Roumpos, Christos; Alevizos, George; Vamvuka, Despina

2011-01-01

The effect of uncertainty sources to the stochastic optimization of the combined project of a new surface lignite mine exploitation and power plant operation for electricity generation is investigated. Major sources of uncertainty that were considered are the reserves and the quality of the lignite. Since probability distribution functions for these uncertainties were estimated during the detailed exploration phase of the deposit, the overall goal is then to determine the optimal capacity of the power plant and consequently the optimal production rate of the mine over the time. The optimization objective that was selected is the maximization of the net present value of the project. Emphasis is placed on the sensitivity analysis for the investigation of the effect of quality and reserves uncertainty on project optimization, on the mathematical formulation of risk attitude strategy and on increasing the efficiency of the optimization process by creating a limited set of feasible solutions applying empirical rules. The developed methodology was applied for the determination of the optimal annual production rate of a new surface lignite mine in the area of Ptolemais–Amynteon in Northern Greece. - Highlights: ► Quality and reserves uncertainty affects considerably the production scheduling. ► Stochastic optimization is greatly accelerated by incorporating Taylor's rule. ► Decisions can be made considering different risk level attitudes.

Statistical methodology for discrete fracture model - including fracture size, orientation uncertainty together with intensity uncertainty and variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Darcel, C. (Itasca Consultants SAS (France)); Davy, P.; Le Goc, R.; Dreuzy, J.R. de; Bour, O. (Geosciences Rennes, UMR 6118 CNRS, Univ. def Rennes, Rennes (France))

2009-11-15

the lineament scale (k{sub t} = 2) on the other, addresses the issue of the nature of the transition. We develop a new 'mechanistic' model that could help in modeling why and where this transition can occur. The transition between both regimes would occur for a fracture length of 1-10 m and even at a smaller scale for the few outcrops that follow the self-similar density model. A consequence for the disposal issue is that the model that is likely to apply in the 'blind' scale window between 10-100 m is the self-similar model as it is defined for large-scale lineaments. The self-similar model, as it is measured for some outcrops and most lineament maps, is definitely worth being investigated as a reference for scales above 1-10 m. In the rest of the report, we develop a methodology for incorporating uncertainty and variability into the DFN modeling. Fracturing properties arise from complex processes which produce an intrinsic variability; characterizing this variability as an admissible variation of model parameter or as the division of the site into subdomains with distinct DFN models is a critical point of the modeling effort. Moreover, the DFN model encompasses a part of uncertainty, due to data inherent uncertainties and sampling limits. Both effects must be quantified and incorporated into the DFN site model definition process. In that context, all available borehole data including recording of fracture intercept positions, pole orientation and relative uncertainties are used as the basis for the methodological development and further site model assessment. An elementary dataset contains a set of discrete fracture intercepts from which a parent orientation/density distribution can be computed. The elementary bricks of the site, from which these initial parent density distributions are computed, rely on the former Single Hole Interpretation division of the boreholes into sections whose local boundaries are expected to reflect - locally - geology

Modeling and Optimization of a CoolingTower-Assisted Heat Pump System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoqing Wei

2017-05-01

Full Text Available To minimize the total energy consumption of a cooling tower-assisted heat pump (CTAHP system in cooling mode, a model-based control strategy with hybrid optimization algorithm for the system is presented in this paper. An existing experimental device, which mainly contains a closed wet cooling tower with counter flow construction, a condenser water loop and a water-to-water heat pump unit, is selected as the study object. Theoretical and empirical models of the related components and their interactions are developed. The four variables, viz. desired cooling load, ambient wet-bulb temperature, temperature and flow rate of chilled water at the inlet of evaporator, are set to independent variables. The system power consumption can be minimized by optimizing input powers of cooling tower fan, spray water pump, condenser water pump and compressor. The optimal input power of spray water pump is determined experimentally. Implemented on MATLAB, a hybrid optimization algorithm, which combines the Limited memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (L-BFGS algorithm with the greedy diffusion search (GDS algorithm, is incorporated to solve the minimization problem of energy consumption and predict the system’s optimal set-points under quasi-steady-state conditions. The integrated simulation tool is validated against experimental data. The results obtained demonstrate the proposed operation strategy is reliable, and can save energy by 20.8% as compared to an uncontrolled system under certain testing conditions.

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, David R.; McGowan, Conor P.; Daily, Jonathan P.; Nichols, James D.; Sweka, John A.; Lyons, James E.

2013-01-01

evaluate adaptive management performance and value of learning. Although natural resource decisions are characterized by uncertainty, not all uncertainty will cause decisions to be altered substantially, as we found in this case. It is important to incorporate uncertainty into the decision framing and evaluate the effect of reducing that uncertainty on achieving the desired outcomes

Uncertainty and conservatism in safety evaluations based on a BEPU approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamaguchi, A.; Mizokami, S.; Kudo, Y.; Hotta, A.

2009-01-01

Atomic Energy Society of Japan has published 'Standard Method for Safety Evaluation using Best Estimate Code Based on Uncertainty and Scaling Analyses with Statistical Approach' to be applied to accidents and AOOs in the safety evaluation of LWRs. In this method, hereafter named as the AESJ-SSE (Statistical Safety Evaluation) method, identification and quantification of uncertainties will be performed and then a combination of the best estimate code and the evaluation of uncertainty propagation will be performed. Uncertainties are categorized into bias and variability. In general, bias is related to our state-of-knowledge on uncertainty objects (modeling, scaling, input data, etc.) while variability reflects stochastic features involved in these objects. Considering many kinds of uncertainties in thermal-hydraulics models and experimental databases show variabilities that will be strongly influenced by our state of knowledge, it seems reasonable that these variabilities are also related to state-of-knowledge. The design basis events (DBEs) that are employed for licensing analyses form a main part of the given or prior conservatism. The regulatory acceptance criterion is also regarded as the prior conservatism. In addition to these prior conservatisms, a certain amount of the posterior conservatism is added with maintaining intimate relationships with state-of-knowledge. In the AESJ-SSE method, this posterior conservatism can be incorporated into the safety evaluation in a combination of the following three ways, (1) broadening ranges of variability relevant to uncertainty objects, (2) employing more disadvantageous biases relevant to uncertainty objects and (3) adding an extra bias to the safety evaluation results. Knowing implemented quantitative bases of uncertainties and conservatism, the AESJ-SSE method provides a useful ground for rational decision-making. In order to seek for 'the best estimation' as well as reasonably setting the analytical margin, a degree

Insurance Applications of Active Fault Maps Showing Epistemic Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, G.

2005-12-01

Insurance loss modeling for earthquakes utilizes available maps of active faulting produced by geoscientists. All such maps are subject to uncertainty, arising from lack of knowledge of fault geometry and rupture history. Field work to undertake geological fault investigations drains human and monetary resources, and this inevitably limits the resolution of fault parameters. Some areas are more accessible than others; some may be of greater social or economic importance than others; some areas may be investigated more rapidly or diligently than others; or funding restrictions may have curtailed the extent of the fault mapping program. In contrast with the aleatory uncertainty associated with the inherent variability in the dynamics of earthquake fault rupture, uncertainty associated with lack of knowledge of fault geometry and rupture history is epistemic. The extent of this epistemic uncertainty may vary substantially from one regional or national fault map to another. However aware the local cartographer may be, this uncertainty is generally not conveyed in detail to the international map user. For example, an area may be left blank for a variety of reasons, ranging from lack of sufficient investigation of a fault to lack of convincing evidence of activity. Epistemic uncertainty in fault parameters is of concern in any probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard, not least in insurance earthquake risk applications. A logic-tree framework is appropriate for incorporating epistemic uncertainty. Some insurance contracts cover specific high-value properties or transport infrastructure, and therefore are extremely sensitive to the geometry of active faulting. Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) to the capital markets may also be considered. In order for such insurance or ART contracts to be properly priced, uncertainty should be taken into account. Accordingly, an estimate is needed for the likelihood of surface rupture capable of causing severe damage. Especially where a

Film cooling air pocket in a closed loop cooled airfoil

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Yufeng Phillip; Itzel, Gary Michael; Osgood, Sarah Jane; Bagepalli, Radhakrishna; Webbon, Waylon Willard; Burdgick, Steven Sebastian

2002-01-01

Turbine stator vane segments have radially inner and outer walls with vanes extending between them. The inner and outer walls are compartmentalized and have impingement plates. Steam flowing into the outer wall plenum passes through the impingement plate for impingement cooling of the outer wall upper surface. The spent impingement steam flows into cavities of the vane having inserts for impingement cooling the walls of the vane. The steam passes into the inner wall and through the impingement plate for impingement cooling of the inner wall surface and for return through return cavities having inserts for impingement cooling of the vane surfaces. To provide for air film cooing of select portions of the airfoil outer surface, at least one air pocket is defined on a wall of at least one of the cavities. Each air pocket is substantially closed with respect to the cooling medium in the cavity and cooling air pumped to the air pocket flows through outlet apertures in the wall of the airfoil to cool the same.

Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.

2011-01-01

In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.

Uncertainty analysis guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Uncertainty analysis guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T.H

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Concepts involved in a proposed application of uncertainty analysis to the performance assessment of high-level nuclear waste isolation systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maerker, R.E.

1986-03-01

This report introduces the concepts of a previously developed methodology which could readily be extended to the field of performance assessment for high-level nuclear waste isolation systems. The methodology incorporates sensitivities previously obtained with the GRESS code into an uncertainty analysis, from which propagated uncertainties in calculated responses may be derived from basic data uncertainties. Following a definition of terms, examples are provided illustrating commonly used conventions for describing the concepts of covariance and sensitivity. Examples of solutions to problems previously encountered in related fields involving uncertainty analysis and use of a generalized linear least-squares adjustment procedure are also presented. 5 refs., 14 tabs

CFD Model Development and validation for High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) Applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassan, Yassin; Corradini, Michael; Tokuhiro, Akira; Wei, Thomas Y.C.

2014-01-01

The Reactor Cavity Cooling Systems (RCCS) is a passive safety system that will be incorporated in the VTHR design. The system was designed to remove the heat from the reactor cavity and maintain the temperature of structures and concrete walls under desired limits during normal operation (steady-state) and accident scenarios. A small scale (1:23) water-cooled experimental facility was scaled, designed, and constructed in order to study the complex thermohydraulic phenomena taking place in the RCCS during steady-state and transient conditions. The facility represents a portion of the reactor vessel with nine stainless steel coolant risers and utilizes water as coolant. The facility was equipped with instrumentation to measure temperatures and flow rates and a general verification was completed during the shakedown. A model of the experimental facility was prepared using RELAP5-3D and simulations were performed to validate the scaling procedure. The experimental data produced during the steady-state run were compared with the simulation results obtained using RELAP5-3D. The overall behavior of the facility met the expectations. The facility capabilities were confirmed to be very promising in performing additional experimental tests, including flow visualization, and produce data for code validation.

CFD Model Development and validation for High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) Applications

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hassan, Yassin [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States); Corradini, Michael; Tokuhiro, Akira; Wei, Thomas Y.C.

2014-07-14

The Reactor Cavity Cooling Systems (RCCS) is a passive safety system that will be incorporated in the VTHR design. The system was designed to remove the heat from the reactor cavity and maintain the temperature of structures and concrete walls under desired limits during normal operation (steady-state) and accident scenarios. A small scale (1:23) water-cooled experimental facility was scaled, designed, and constructed in order to study the complex thermohydraulic phenomena taking place in the RCCS during steady-state and transient conditions. The facility represents a portion of the reactor vessel with nine stainless steel coolant risers and utilizes water as coolant. The facility was equipped with instrumentation to measure temperatures and flow rates and a general verification was completed during the shakedown. A model of the experimental facility was prepared using RELAP5-3D and simulations were performed to validate the scaling procedure. The experimental data produced during the steady-state run were compared with the simulation results obtained using RELAP5-3D. The overall behavior of the facility met the expectations. The facility capabilities were confirmed to be very promising in performing additional experimental tests, including flow visualization, and produce data for code validation.

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bean, J.E.; Berglund, J.W.; Davis, F.J.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; MacKinnon, R.J.; Miller, J.; O'Brien, D.G.; Ramsey, J.L.; Schreiber, J.D.; Shinta, A.; Smith, L.N.; Stockman, C.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Vaughn, P.

1998-01-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates a mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide

Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Results Obtained in the 1996 Performance Assessment for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bean, J.E.; Berglund, J.W.; Davis, F.J.; Economy, K.; Garner, J.W.; Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; MacKinnon, R.J.; Miller, J.; O' Brien, D.G.; Ramsey, J.L.; Schreiber, J.D.; Shinta, A.; Smith, L.N.; Stockman, C.; Stoelzel, D.M.; Vaughn, P.

1998-09-01

The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WPP) is located in southeastern New Mexico and is being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for the geologic (deep underground) disposal of transuranic (TRU) waste. A detailed performance assessment (PA) for the WIPP was carried out in 1996 and supports an application by the DOE to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the certification of the WIPP for the disposal of TRU waste. The 1996 WIPP PA uses a computational structure that maintains a separation between stochastic (i.e., aleatory) and subjective (i.e., epistemic) uncertainty, with stochastic uncertainty arising from the many possible disruptions that could occur over the 10,000 yr regulatory period that applies to the WIPP and subjective uncertainty arising from the imprecision with which many of the quantities required in the PA are known. Important parts of this structure are (1) the use of Latin hypercube sampling to incorporate the effects of subjective uncertainty, (2) the use of Monte Carlo (i.e., random) sampling to incorporate the effects of stochastic uncertainty, and (3) the efficient use of the necessarily limited number of mechanistic calculations that can be performed to support the analysis. The use of Latin hypercube sampling generates a mapping from imprecisely known analysis inputs to analysis outcomes of interest that provides both a display of the uncertainty in analysis outcomes (i.e., uncertainty analysis) and a basis for investigating the effects of individual inputs on these outcomes (i.e., sensitivity analysis). The sensitivity analysis procedures used in the PA include examination of scatterplots, stepwise regression analysis, and partial correlation analysis. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis results obtained as part of the 1996 WIPP PA are presented and discussed. Specific topics considered include two phase flow in the vicinity of the repository, radionuclide release from the repository, fluid flow and radionuclide

Using cost-benefit concepts in design floods improves communication of uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Ganora, Daniele; Botto, Anna; Laio, Francesco; Claps, Pierluigi

2017-04-01

Flood frequency analysis, i.e. the study of the relationships between the magnitude and the rarity of high flows in a river, is the usual procedure adopted to assess flood hazard, preliminary to the plan/design of flood protection measures. It grounds on the fit of a probability distribution to the peak discharge values recorded in gauging stations and the final estimates over a region are thus affected by uncertainty, due to the limited sample availability and of the possible alternatives in terms of the probabilistic model and the parameter estimation methods used. In the last decade, the scientific community dealt with this issue by developing a number of methods to quantify such uncertainty components. Usually, uncertainty is visually represented through confidence bands, which are easy to understand, but are not yet demonstrated to be useful for design purposes: they usually disorient decision makers, as the design flood is no longer univocally defined, making the decision process undetermined. These considerations motivated the development of the uncertainty-compliant design flood estimator (UNCODE) procedure (Botto et al., 2014) that allows one to select meaningful flood design values accounting for the associated uncertainty by considering additional constraints based on cost-benefit criteria. This method suggests an explicit multiplication factor that corrects the traditional (without uncertainty) design flood estimates to incorporate the effects of uncertainty in the estimate at the same safety level. Even though the UNCODE method was developed for design purposes, it can represent a powerful and robust tool to help clarifying the effects of the uncertainty in statistical estimation. As the process produces increased design flood estimates, this outcome demonstrates how uncertainty leads to more expensive flood protection measures, or insufficiency of current defenses. Moreover, the UNCODE approach can be used to assess the "value" of data, as the costs

Quantifying uncertainty in NDSHA estimates due to earthquake catalogue

Science.gov (United States)

Magrin, Andrea; Peresan, Antonella; Vaccari, Franco; Panza, Giuliano

2014-05-01

The procedure for the neo-deterministic seismic zoning, NDSHA, is based on the calculation of synthetic seismograms by the modal summation technique. This approach makes use of information about the space distribution of large magnitude earthquakes, which can be defined based on seismic history and seismotectonics, as well as incorporating information from a wide set of geological and geophysical data (e.g., morphostructural features and ongoing deformation processes identified by earth observations). Hence the method does not make use of attenuation models (GMPE), which may be unable to account for the complexity of the product between seismic source tensor and medium Green function and are often poorly constrained by the available observations. NDSHA defines the hazard from the envelope of the values of ground motion parameters determined considering a wide set of scenario earthquakes; accordingly, the simplest outcome of this method is a map where the maximum of a given seismic parameter is associated to each site. In NDSHA uncertainties are not statistically treated as in PSHA, where aleatory uncertainty is traditionally handled with probability density functions (e.g., for magnitude and distance random variables) and epistemic uncertainty is considered by applying logic trees that allow the use of alternative models and alternative parameter values of each model, but the treatment of uncertainties is performed by sensitivity analyses for key modelling parameters. To fix the uncertainty related to a particular input parameter is an important component of the procedure. The input parameters must account for the uncertainty in the prediction of fault radiation and in the use of Green functions for a given medium. A key parameter is the magnitude of sources used in the simulation that is based on catalogue informations, seismogenic zones and seismogenic nodes. Because the largest part of the existing catalogues is based on macroseismic intensity, a rough estimate

Validation uncertainty of MATRA code for subchannel void distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hwang, Dae-Hyun; Kim, S. J.; Kwon, H.; Seo, K. W. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

To extend code capability to the whole core subchannel analysis, pre-conditioned Krylov matrix solvers such as BiCGSTAB and GMRES are implemented in MATRA code as well as parallel computing algorithms using MPI and OPENMP. It is coded by fortran 90, and has some user friendly features such as graphic user interface. MATRA code was approved by Korean regulation body for design calculation of integral-type PWR named SMART. The major role subchannel code is to evaluate core thermal margin through the hot channel analysis and uncertainty evaluation for CHF predictions. In addition, it is potentially used for the best estimation of core thermal hydraulic field by incorporating into multiphysics and/or multi-scale code systems. In this study we examined a validation process for the subchannel code MATRA specifically in the prediction of subchannel void distributions. The primary objective of validation is to estimate a range within which the simulation modeling error lies. The experimental data for subchannel void distributions at steady state and transient conditions was provided on the framework of OECD/NEA UAM benchmark program. The validation uncertainty of MATRA code was evaluated for a specific experimental condition by comparing the simulation result and experimental data. A validation process should be preceded by code and solution verification. However, quantification of verification uncertainty was not addressed in this study. The validation uncertainty of the MATRA code for predicting subchannel void distribution was evaluated for a single data point of void fraction measurement at a 5x5 PWR test bundle on the framework of OECD UAM benchmark program. The validation standard uncertainties were evaluated as 4.2%, 3.9%, and 2.8% with the Monte-Carlo approach at the axial levels of 2216 mm, 2669 mm, and 3177 mm, respectively. The sensitivity coefficient approach revealed similar results of uncertainties but did not account for the nonlinear effects on the

Application of a bistable convection loop to LMFBR [liquid metal fast breeder reactor] emergency core cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anand, G.; Christensen, R.N.

1990-01-01

The concept of passive safety features for nuclear reactors has been developed in recent years and has gained wide acceptance. A literature survey of current reactors with passive features indicates that these reactors have some passive features but still do not fully meet the design objectives. Consider a current liquid-metal reactor design like PRISM. During normal operation, liquid sodium enters the reactor at ∼395 degree C and exits at ∼550 degree C. In the event of loss of secondary cooling with or without scram, the primary coolant (liquid sodium) initially acts as a heat sink and its temperature increases. For events without scram, the negative reactivity induced by the increase in temperature shuts the reactor down. When the average temperature of the sodium reaches ∼600 to 650 degree C, it overflows from the reactor vessel, activating the auxiliary cooling system. The auxiliary cooling system uses natural circulation of air around the reactor guard vessel. An alternative to the current design incorporates a bistable convection loop (BCL). The incorporation of the BCL concept remarkably improves the safety of the nuclear reactors. Application of the BCL concept to liquid-metal fast breeder reactors is described in this paper

Next-generation avionics packaging and cooling 'test results from a prototype system'

Science.gov (United States)

Seals, J. D.

The author reports on the design, material characteristics, and test results obtained under the US Air Force's advanced aircraft avionics packaging technologies (AAAPT) program, whose charter is to investigate new designs and technologies for reliable packaging, interconnection, and thermal management. Under this program, AT&T Bell Laboratories has completed the preliminary testing of and is evaluating a number of promising materials and technologies, including conformal encapsulation, liquid flow-through cooling, and a cyanate ester backplane. A fifty-two module system incorporating these and and other technologies has undergone preliminary cooling efficiency, shock, sine and random vibration, and maintenance testing. One of the primary objectives was to evaluate the interaction compatibility of new materials and designs with other components in the system.

DESIGN CHARACTERISTICS OF THE IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY HIGH-TEMPERATURE GAS-COOLED TEST REACTOR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sterbentz, James; Bayless, Paul; Strydom, Gerhard; Kumar, Akansha; Gougar, Hans

2016-11-01

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is an indispensable element of any substantial attempt in reactor simulation validation. The quantification of uncertainties in nuclear engineering has grown more important and the IAEA Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) initiated in 2012 aims to investigate the various uncertainty quantification methodologies for this type of reactors. The first phase of the CRP is dedicated to the estimation of cell and lattice model uncertainties due to the neutron cross sections co-variances. Phase II is oriented towards the investigation of propagated uncertainties from the lattice to the coupled neutronics/thermal hydraulics core calculations. Nominal results for the prismatic single block (Ex.I-2a) and super cell models (Ex.I-2c) have been obtained using the SCALE 6.1.3 two-dimensional lattice code NEWT coupled to the TRITON sequence for cross section generation. In this work, the TRITON/NEWT-flux-weighted cross sections obtained for Ex.I-2a and various models of Ex.I-2c is utilized to perform a sensitivity analysis of the MHTGR-350 core power densities and eigenvalues. The core solutions are obtained with the INL coupled code PHISICS/RELAP5-3D, utilizing a fixed-temperature feedback for Ex. II-1a.. It is observed that the core power density does not vary significantly in shape, but the magnitude of these variations increases as the moderator-to-fuel ratio increases in the super cell lattice models.

Coherent electron cooling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Litvinenko,V.

2009-05-04

Cooling intense high-energy hadron beams remains a major challenge in modern accelerator physics. Synchrotron radiation is still too feeble, while the efficiency of two other cooling methods, stochastic and electron, falls rapidly either at high bunch intensities (i.e. stochastic of protons) or at high energies (e-cooling). In this talk a specific scheme of a unique cooling technique, Coherent Electron Cooling, will be discussed. The idea of coherent electron cooling using electron beam instabilities was suggested by Derbenev in the early 1980s, but the scheme presented in this talk, with cooling times under an hour for 7 TeV protons in the LHC, would be possible only with present-day accelerator technology. This talk will discuss the principles and the main limitations of the Coherent Electron Cooling process. The talk will describe the main system components, based on a high-gain free electron laser driven by an energy recovery linac, and will present some numerical examples for ions and protons in RHIC and the LHC and for electron-hadron options for these colliders. BNL plans a demonstration of the idea in the near future.

Man-portable personal cooling garment based on vacuum desiccant cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Yifan; Stapleton, Jill; Diagne, Barbara Thiané; Kenny, Glen P.; Lan, Christopher Q.

2012-01-01

A man-portable personal cooling garment based on the concept of vacuum desiccant cooling (VDC) was developed. It was demonstrated with cooling pads that a cooling capacity of 373.1 W/m 2 could be achieved in an ambient environment of 37 °C. Tests with human subjects wearing prototype cooling garments consisting of 12 VDC pads with an overall weight of 3.4 kg covering 0.4 m 2 body surface indicate that the garment could maintain a core temperature substantially lower than the control when the workload was walking on a treadmill of 2% inclination at 3 mph. The exercise was carried out in an environment of 40 °C and 50% relative humidity (RH) for 60 min. Tests also showed that the VDC garment could effectively reduce the metabolic heat accumulation in body with subject wearing heavily insulated nuclear, biological and chemical (NBC) suit working in the heat and allow the participant to work safely for 60 min, almost doubling the safe working time of the same participant when he wore NBC suit only. - Highlights: ► Heat stress mitigation is important for workers health, safety, and performance. ► Vacuum desiccant cooling (VDC) a novel concept for personal cooling. ► VDC garment man-portable and more efficient than commercial ice/pad vest. ► VDC garment suitable for personal cooling with NBC suit.

Laser cooling of solids

CERN Document Server

Petrushkin, S V

2009-01-01

Laser cooling is an important emerging technology in such areas as the cooling of semiconductors. The book examines and suggests solutions for a range of problems in the development of miniature solid-state laser refrigerators, self-cooling solid-state lasers and optical echo-processors. It begins by looking at the basic theory of laser cooling before considering such topics as self-cooling of active elements of solid-state lasers, laser cooling of solid-state information media of optical echo-processors, and problems of cooling solid-state quantum processors. Laser Cooling of Solids is an important contribution to the development of compact laser-powered cryogenic refrigerators, both for the academic community and those in the microelectronics and other industries. Provides a timely review of this promising field of research and discusses the fundamentals and theory of laser cooling Particular attention is given to the physics of cooling processes and the mathematical description of these processes Reviews p...

To cool, but not too cool: that is the question--immersion cooling for hyperthermia.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Nigel A S; Caldwell, Joanne N; Van den Heuvel, Anne M J; Patterson, Mark J

2008-11-01

Patient cooling time can impact upon the prognosis of heat illness. Although ice-cold-water immersion will rapidly extract heat, access to ice or cold water may be limited in hot climates. Indeed, some have concerns regarding the sudden cold-water immersion of hyperthermic individuals, whereas others believe that cutaneous vasoconstriction may reduce convective heat transfer from the core. It was hypothesized that warmer immersion temperatures, which induce less powerful vasoconstriction, may still facilitate rapid cooling in hyperthermic individuals. Eight males participated in three trials and were heated to an esophageal temperature of 39.5 degrees C by exercising in the heat (36 degrees C, 50% relative humidity) while wearing a water-perfusion garment (40 degrees C). Subjects were cooled using each of the following methods: air (20-22 degrees C), cold-water immersion (14 degrees C), and temperate-water immersion (26 degrees C). The time to reach an esophageal temperature of 37.5 degrees C averaged 22.81 min (air), 2.16 min (cold), and 2.91 min (temperate). Whereas each of the between-trial comparisons was statistically significant (P < 0.05), cooling in temperate water took only marginally longer than that in cold water, and one cannot imagine that the 45-s cooling time difference would have any meaningful physiological or clinical implications. It is assumed that this rapid heat loss was due to a less powerful peripheral vasoconstrictor response, with central heat being more rapidly transported to the skin surface for dissipation. Although the core-to-water thermal gradient was much smaller with temperate-water cooling, greater skin and deeper tissue blood flows would support a superior convective heat delivery. Thus, a sustained physiological mechanism (blood flow) appears to have countered a less powerful thermal gradient, resulting in clinically insignificant differences in heat extraction between the cold and temperate cooling trials.

Conceptual design of the INTOR first-wall system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.L.; Majumdar, S.; Mattas, R.F.; Turner, L.; Jung, J.; Abdou, M.A.; Bowers, D.; Trachsel, C.; Merrill, B.

1981-10-01

The design concept and performance characteristics of the first-wall design for the phase-1 INTOR (International Tokamak Reactor) study is described. The reference design consists of a water-cooled stainless steel panel. The major uncertainty regarding the performance of the bare stainless steel wall relates to the response of a thin-melt layer predicted to form on limited regions during a plasma disruption. A more-complex backup design, which incorporates radiatively cooled graphite tiles on the inboard wall, is briefly described

Performance characteristic of hybrid cooling system based on cooling pad and evaporator

Science.gov (United States)

Yoon, J. I.; Son, C. H.; Choi, K. H.; Kim, Y. B.; Sung, Y. H.; Roh, S. J.; Kim, Y. M.; Seol, S. H.

2018-01-01

In South Korea, most of domestic animals such as pigs and chickens might die due to thermal diseases if they are exposed to the high temperature consistently. In order to save them from the heat wave, numerous efforts have been carried out: installing a shade net, adjusting time of feeding, spraying mist and setting up a circulation fan. However, these methods have not shown significant improvements. Thus, this study proposes a hybrid cooling system combining evaporative cooler and air-conditioner in order to resolve the conventional problems caused by the high temperature in the livestock industry. The problem of cooling systems using evaporative cooling pads is that they are not effective for eliminating huge heat load due to their limited capacity. And, temperature of the supplied air cannot be low enough compared to conventional air-conditioning systems. On the other hand, conventional air-conditioning systems require relatively expensive installation cost, and high operating cost compared to evaporative cooling system. The hybrid cooling system makes up for the lack of cooling capacity of the evaporative cooler by employing the conventional air-conditioner. Additionally, temperature of supplied air can be lowered enough. In the hybrid cooling system, induced air by a fan is cooled by the evaporation of water in the cooling pad, and it is cooled again by an evaporator in the air-conditioner. Therefore, the more economical operation is possible due to additionally obtained cooling capacity from the cooling pads. Major results of experimental analysis of hybrid cooling system are as follows. The compressor power consumption of the hybrid cooling system is about 23% lower, and its COP is 17% higher than that of the conventional air-conditioners. Regarding the condition of changing ambient temperature, the total power consumption decreased by about 5% as the ambient temperature changed from 28.7°C to 31.7°C. Cooling capacity and COP also presented about 3% and 1

Spray cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rollin, Philippe.

1975-01-01

Spray cooling - using water spraying in air - is surveyed as a possible system for make-up (peak clipping in open circuit) or major cooling (in closed circuit) of the cooling water of the condensers in thermal power plants. Indications are given on the experiments made in France and the systems recently developed in USA, questions relating to performance, cost and environmental effects of spray devices are then dealt with [fr

Uncertainty analysis of one Main Circulation Pump trip event at the Ignalina NPP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vileiniskis, V.; Kaliatka, A.; Uspuras, E.

2004-01-01

One Main Circulation Pump (MCP) trip event is an anticipated transient with expected frequency of approximately one event per year. There were a few events when one MCP was inadvertently tripped. The throughput of the rest running pumps in the affected Main Circulation Circuit loop increased, however, the total coolant flow through the affected loop decreased. The main question arises whether this coolant flow rate is sufficient for adequate core cooling. This paper presents an investigation of one MCP trip event at the Ignalina NPP. According to international practice, the transient analysis should consist of deterministic analysis by employing best-estimate codes and uncertainty analysis. For that purpose, the plant's RELAP5 model and the GRS (Germany) System for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis package (SUSA) were employed. Uncertainty analysis of flow energy loss in different parts of the Main Circulation Circuit, initial conditions and code-selected models was performed. Such analysis allows to estimate the influence of separate parameters on calculation results and to find the modelling parameters that have the largest impact on the event studied. On the basis of this analysis, recommendations for the further improvement of the model have been developed. (author)

Government policy uncertainty and stock prices: The case of Australia's uranium industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferguson, Andrew; Lam, Peter

2016-01-01

We investigate effects of government policy uncertainty on stock prices, reflecting tension between ‘private interest’ (economic benefits) and ‘public interest’ arguments over uranium mining. Using a sample of Australian-listed uranium firms from January 2005 through June 2008, we document a positive contemporaneous correlation between stock returns and volatility and two measures of government policy uncertainty, proxied by the spread in voters' opinion polls between the two major political parties and a news-based sentiment index. Event-study results show significant stock price reactions to key uranium-related policy events, with cross-sectional variation in event returns predicted by models incorporating firm- and project-level characteristics. Our research design and findings may inform future research on the capital market effects of government policy uncertainty in other regulated industries. - Highlights: • Government policy uncertainty has direct effects on stock prices of uranium explorers. • Stock returns are positively related to the spread in two-party-preferred voting intention. • Stock volatility is positively related to a uranium news-based sentiment index. • Event-study results show significant market reaction to key uranium policy events.

Qualification and application of nuclear reactor accident analysis code with the capability of internal assessment of uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borges, Ronaldo Celem

2001-10-01

This thesis presents an independent qualification of the CIAU code ('Code with the capability of - Internal Assessment of Uncertainty') which is part of the internal uncertainty evaluation process with a thermal hydraulic system code on a realistic basis. This is done by combining the uncertainty methodology UMAE ('Uncertainty Methodology based on Accuracy Extrapolation') with the RELAP5/Mod3.2 code. This allows associating uncertainty band estimates with the results obtained by the realistic calculation of the code, meeting licensing requirements of safety analysis. The independent qualification is supported by simulations with RELAP5/Mod3.2 related to accident condition tests of LOBI experimental facility and to an event which has occurred in Angra 1 nuclear power plant, by comparison with measured results and by establishing uncertainty bands on safety parameter calculated time trends. These bands have indeed enveloped the measured trends. Results from this independent qualification of CIAU have allowed to ascertain the adequate application of a systematic realistic code procedure to analyse accidents with uncertainties incorporated in the results, although there is an evident need of extending the uncertainty data base. It has been verified that use of the code with this internal assessment of uncertainty is feasible in the design and license stages of a NPP. (author)

Cooling and energy saving potentials of shade trees and urban lawns in a desert city

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Zhi-Hua; Zhao, Xiaoxi; Yang, Jiachuan; Song, Jiyun

2016-01-01

Highlights: • We developed a numerical framework incorporating trees in an urban canopy model. • Shade trees have more prominent energy saving potential than urban lawns. • The trade-off between water-energy is a key for urban landscape management. • Urban vegetation can significantly alleviate outdoor thermal stress. - Abstract: The use of urban vegetation in cities is a common landscape planning strategy to alleviate the heat island effect as well as to enhance building energy efficiency. The presence of trees in street canyons can effectively reduce environmental temperature via radiative shading. However, resolving shade trees in urban land surface models presents a major challenge in numerical models, especially in predicting the radiative heat exchange in canyons. In this paper, we develop a new numerical framework by incorporating shade trees into an advanced single-layer urban canopy model. This novel numerical framework is applied to Phoenix metropolitan area to investigate the cooling effect of different urban vegetation types and their potentials in saving building energy. It is found that the cooling effect by shading from trees is more significant than that by evapotranspiration from lawns, leading to a considerable saving of cooling load. In addition, analysis of human thermal comfort shows that urban vegetation plays a crucial role in creating a comfortable living environment, especially for cities located in arid or semi-arid region.

Robust Economic MPC for a Power Management Scenario with Uncertainties

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hovgaard, Tobias Gybel; Larsen, Lars F.S.; Jørgensen, John Bagterp

2011-01-01

This paper presents a novel incorporation of probabilistic constraints and Second Order Cone Programming (SOCP) with Economic Model Predictive Control (MPC). Hereby the performance of the controller is robustyfied in the presence of both model and forecast uncertainties. Economic MPC is a receding...... horizon controller that minimizes an economic objective function and we have previously demonstrated its usage to include a refrigeration system as a controllable power consumer with a portfolio of power generators such that total cost is minimized. The main focus for our work is the power management...... an optimal solution to an infeasible or very expensive solution. The main contribution of this paper is the Finite Impulse Response (FIR) formulation of the system models allowing us to describe and handle model uncertainties in the framework of probabilistic constraints. Our new solution using this setup...

Robust nonlinear control design with application to a marine cooling system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Michael; Stoustrup, Jakob; Bendtsen, Jan Dimon

2012-01-01

. In this context, we apply a bilinear transformation to obtain a well-posed H-inf problem. The design procedure is applied to a marine cooling system with flow dependent delays and performance of the resulting control design is evaluated through a simulation example where a comparison is made to a linear control......In this paper we consider design of control laws for a class of nonlinear systems with time-varying state delays by use of principles from feedback linearization. To deal with model uncertainties and delay mismatches, a robust linear H-inf controller is designed for the feedback linearized system...

Assessing the environmental health relevance of cooling towers--a systematic review of legionellosis outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

Walser, Sandra M; Gerstner, Doris G; Brenner, Bernhard; Höller, Christiane; Liebl, Bernhard; Herr, Caroline E W

2014-03-01

Bioaerosols from cooling towers are often suspected to cause community-acquired legionellosis outbreaks. Although Legionella infections can mostly be assigned to the emission sources, uncertainty exists about the release and distribution into the air, the occurrence of the respirable virulent form and the level of the infective concentration. Our study aimed to evaluate studies on legionellosis outbreaks attributed to cooling towers published within the last 11 years by means of a systematic review of the literature. 19 legionellosis outbreaks were identified affecting 12 countries. Recurring events were observed in Spain and Great Britain. In total, 1609 confirmed cases of legionellosis and a case-fatality rate of approximately 6% were reported. Duration of outbreaks was 65 days on average. For diagnosis the urinary antigen test was mainly used. Age, smoking, male sex and underlying diseases (diabetes, immunodeficiency) could be confirmed as risk factors. Smoking and underlying diseases were the most frequent risk factors associated with legionellosis in 11 and 10 of the 19 studies, respectively. The meteorological conditions varied strongly. Several studies reported a temporal association of outbreaks with inadequate maintenance of the cooling systems. A match of clinical and environmental isolates by serotyping and/or molecular subtyping could be confirmed in 84% of outbreaks. Legionella-contaminated cooling towers as environmental trigger, in particular in the neighbourhood of susceptible individuals, can cause severe health problems and even death. To prevent and control Legionella contamination of cooling towers, maintenance actions should focus on low-emission cleaning procedures of cooling towers combined with control measurements of water and air samples. Procedures allowing rapid detection and risk assessment in the case of outbreaks are essential for adequate public health measures. Systematic registration of cooling towers will facilitate the

Rapid cooling rates at an active mid-ocean ridge from zircon thermochronology

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitt, Axel K.; Perfit, Michael R.; Rubin, Kenneth H.; Stockli, Daniel F.; Smith, Matthew C.; Cotsonika, Laurie A.; Zellmer, Georg F.; Ridley, W. Ian

2011-01-01

Oceanic spreading ridges are Earth's most productive crust generating environment, but mechanisms and rates of crustal accretion and heat loss are debated. Existing observations on cooling rates are ambiguous regarding the prevalence of conductive vs. convective cooling of lower oceanic crust. Here, we report the discovery and dating of zircon in mid-ocean ridge dacite lavas that constrain magmatic differentiation and cooling rates at an active spreading center. Dacitic lavas erupted on the southern Cleft segment of the Juan de Fuca ridge, an intermediate-rate spreading center, near the intersection with the Blanco transform fault. Their U–Th zircon crystallization ages (29.3-4.6+4.8 ka; 1δ standard error s.e.) overlap with the (U–Th)/He zircon eruption age (32.7 ± 1.6 ka) within uncertainty. Based on similar 238U-230Th disequilibria between southern Cleft dacite glass separates and young mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) erupted nearby, differentiation must have occurred rapidly, within ~ 10–20 ka at most. Ti-in-zircon thermometry indicates crystallization at 850–900 °C and pressures > 70–150 MPa are calculated from H2O solubility models. These time-temperature constraints translate into a magma cooling rate of ~ 2 × 10-2 °C/a. This rate is at least one order-of-magnitude faster than those calculated for zircon-bearing plutonic rocks from slow spreading ridges. Such short intervals for differentiation and cooling can only be resolved through uranium-series (238U–230Th) decay in young lavas, and are best explained by dissipating heat convectively at high crustal permeability.

Risk-sensitive optimal feedback control accounts for sensorimotor behavior under uncertainty.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arne J Nagengast

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Many aspects of human motor behavior can be understood using optimality principles such as optimal feedback control. However, these proposed optimal control models are risk-neutral; that is, they are indifferent to the variability of the movement cost. Here, we propose the use of a risk-sensitive optimal controller that incorporates movement cost variance either as an added cost (risk-averse controller or as an added value (risk-seeking controller to model human motor behavior in the face of uncertainty. We use a sensorimotor task to test the hypothesis that subjects are risk-sensitive. Subjects controlled a virtual ball undergoing Brownian motion towards a target. Subjects were required to minimize an explicit cost, in points, that was a combination of the final positional error of the ball and the integrated control cost. By testing subjects on different levels of Brownian motion noise and relative weighting of the position and control cost, we could distinguish between risk-sensitive and risk-neutral control. We show that subjects change their movement strategy pessimistically in the face of increased uncertainty in accord with the predictions of a risk-averse optimal controller. Our results suggest that risk-sensitivity is a fundamental attribute that needs to be incorporated into optimal feedback control models.

Uncertainty Evaluation of Reactivity Coefficients for a large advanced SFR Core Design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khamakhem, Wassim; Rimpault, Gerald

2008-01-01

Sodium Cooled Fast Reactors are currently being reshaped in order to meet Generation IV goals on economics, safety and reliability, sustainability and proliferation resistance. Recent studies have led to large SFR cores for a 3600 MWth power plants, cores which exhibit interesting features. The designs have had to balance between competing aspects such as sustainability and safety characteristics. Sustainability in neutronic terms is translated into positive breeding gain and safety into rather low Na void reactivity effects. The studies have been done on two SFR concepts using oxide and carbide fuels. The use of the sensitivity theory in the ERANOS determinist code system has been used. Calculations have been performed with different sodium evaluations: JEF2.2, ERALIB-1 and the most recent JEFF3.1 and ENDF/B-VII in order to make a broad comparison. Values for the Na void reactivity effect exhibit differences as large as 14% when using the different sodium libraries. Uncertainties due to nuclear data on the reactivity coefficients were performed with BOLNA variances-covariances data, the Na Void Effect uncertainties are near to 12% at 1σ. Since, the uncertainties are far beyond the target accuracy for a design achieving high performance, two directions are envisaged: the first one is to perform new differential measurements or in a second attempt use integral experiments to improve effectively the nuclear data set and its uncertainties such as performed in the past with ERALIB1. (authors)

Electricity supply industry modelling for multiple objectives under demand growth uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heinrich, G.; Basson, L.; Howells, M.; Petrie, J.

2007-01-01

Appropriate energy-environment-economic (E3) modelling provides key information for policy makers in the electricity supply industry (ESI) faced with navigating a sustainable development path. Key challenges include engaging with stakeholder values and preferences, and exploring trade-offs between competing objectives in the face of underlying uncertainty. As a case study we represent the South African ESI using a partial equilibrium E3 modelling approach, and extend the approach to include multiple objectives under selected future uncertainties. This extension is achieved by assigning cost penalties to non-cost attributes to force the model's least-cost objective function to better satisfy non-cost criteria. This paper incorporates aspects of flexibility to demand growth uncertainty into each future expansion alternative by introducing stochastic programming with recourse into the model. Technology lead times are taken into account by the inclusion of a decision node along the time horizon where aspects of real options theory are considered within the planning process. Hedging in the recourse programming is automatically translated from being purely financial, to include the other attributes that the cost penalties represent. From a retrospective analysis of the cost penalties, the correct market signals, can be derived to meet policy goal, with due regard to demand uncertainty. (author)

The uncertainty of reference standards--a guide to understanding factors impacting uncertainty, uncertainty calculations, and vendor certifications.

Science.gov (United States)

Gates, Kevin; Chang, Ning; Dilek, Isil; Jian, Huahua; Pogue, Sherri; Sreenivasan, Uma

2009-10-01

Certified solution standards are widely used in forensic toxicological, clinical/diagnostic, and environmental testing. Typically, these standards are purchased as ampouled solutions with a certified concentration. Vendors present concentration and uncertainty differently on their Certificates of Analysis. Understanding the factors that impact uncertainty and which factors have been considered in the vendor's assignment of uncertainty are critical to understanding the accuracy of the standard and the impact on testing results. Understanding these variables is also important for laboratories seeking to comply with ISO/IEC 17025 requirements and for those preparing reference solutions from neat materials at the bench. The impact of uncertainty associated with the neat material purity (including residual water, residual solvent, and inorganic content), mass measurement (weighing techniques), and solvent addition (solution density) on the overall uncertainty of the certified concentration is described along with uncertainty calculations.

Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Redei, Miklos

1987-01-01

The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs

Measurement Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Koch, Michael

Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

Emergency reactor cooling device

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arakawa, Ken.

1993-01-01

An emergency nuclear reactor cooling device comprises a water reservoir, emergency core cooling water pipelines having one end connected to a water feeding sparger, fire extinguishing facility pipelines, cooling water pressurizing pumps, a diesel driving machine for driving the pumps and a battery. In a water reservoir, cooling water is stored by an amount required for cooling the reactor upon emergency and for fire extinguishing, and fire extinguishing facility pipelines connecting the water reservoir and the fire extinguishing facility are in communication with the emergency core cooling water pipelines connected to the water feeding sparger by system connection pipelines. Pumps are operated by a diesel power generator to introduce cooling water from the reservoir to the emergency core cooling water pipelines. Then, even in a case where AC electric power source is entirely lost and the emergency core cooling system can not be used, the diesel driving machine is operated using an exclusive battery, thereby enabling to inject cooling water from the water reservoir to a reactor pressure vessel and a reactor container by the diesel drive pump. (N.H.)

Two-stage robust UC including a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Álvarez-Miranda, Eduardo; Campos-Valdés, Camilo; Rahmann, Claudia

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Methodological framework for obtaining Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies. • Wind-power forecast using a revisited bootstrap predictive inference approach. • Novel scenario-based model for wind-power uncertainty. • Efficient modeling framework for obtaining nearly optimal UC policies in reasonable time. • Effective incorporation of wind-power uncertainty in the UC modeling. - Abstract: The complex processes involved in the determination of the availability of power from renewable energy sources, such as wind power, impose great challenges in the forecasting processes carried out by transmission system operators (TSOs). Nowadays, many of these TSOs use operation planning tools that take into account the uncertainty of the wind-power. However, most of these methods typically require strict assumptions about the probabilistic behavior of the forecast error, and usually ignore the dynamic nature of the forecasting process. In this paper a methodological framework to obtain Robust Unit Commitment (UC) policies is presented; such methodology considers a novel scenario-based uncertainty model for wind power applications. The proposed method is composed by three main phases. The first two phases generate a sound wind-power forecast using a bootstrap predictive inference approach. The third phase corresponds to modeling and solving a one-day ahead Robust UC considering the output of the first phase. The performance of proposed approach is evaluated using as case study a new wind farm to be incorporated into the Northern Interconnected System (NIS) of Chile. A projection of wind-based power installation, as well as different characteristic of the uncertain data, are considered in this study

A design condition for incorporating human judgement into monitoring systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, K.; Klir, G.J.

1999-01-01

In safety monitoring, there exists an uncertainty situation in which the sensor cannot detect whether or not the monitored object is in danger. For the uncertainty zone identified by a non-homogeneous safety monitoring system that utilizes two types of sensors with different thresholds, operators or experts are expected to judge whether the real state is safe or dangerous on the basis of additional information from a detailed inspection or other related sensors output. However, the activities for inspection performed by relevant humans may require additional cost and introduce inspection errors. The present article proposes two types of an automatic monitoring system not involving any human inspection or a human-machine (H-M) cooperative monitoring system with inspection. In order to compare the systems, an approach based on the Dempster-Shafer theory is proposed as uncertainty analysis by this theory (it is simpler than by the traditional Bayesian approach). By comparing their expected losses as a result of failed dangerous failures or failed safe failures as well as the inspection errors, the condition is determined under which H-M cooperative systems incorporating human judgements are more effective than automatic monitoring systems

Covariant energy–momentum and an uncertainty principle for general relativity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooperstock, F.I., E-mail: cooperst@uvic.ca [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Victoria, P.O. Box 3055, Victoria, B.C. V8W 3P6 (Canada); Dupre, M.J., E-mail: mdupre@tulane.edu [Department of Mathematics, Tulane University, New Orleans, LA 70118 (United States)

2013-12-15

We introduce a naturally-defined totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. The extension links seamlessly to the action integral for the gravitational field. The demand that the general expression for arbitrary systems reduces to the Tolman integral in the case of stationary bounded distributions, leads to the matter-localized Ricci integral for energy–momentum in support of the energy localization hypothesis. The role of the observer is addressed and as an extension of the special relativistic case, the field of observers comoving with the matter is seen to compute the intrinsic global energy of a system. The new localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. It is suggested that in the extreme of strong gravity, the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum. -- Highlights: •We present a totally invariant spacetime energy expression for general relativity incorporating the contribution from gravity. •Demand for the general expression to reduce to the Tolman integral for stationary systems supports the Ricci integral as energy–momentum. •Localized energy via the Ricci integral is consistent with the energy localization hypothesis. •New localized energy supports the Bonnor claim that the Szekeres collapsing dust solutions are energy-conserving. •Suggest the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle be generalized in terms of spacetime energy–momentum in strong gravity extreme.

Mold heating and cooling microprocessor conversion

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, D. P.

1995-07-01

Conversion of the microprocessors and software for the Mold Heating and Cooling (MHAC) pump package control systems was initiated to allow required system enhancements and provide data communications capabilities with the Plastics Information and Control System (PICS). The existing microprocessor-based control systems for the pump packages use an Intel 8088-based microprocessor board with a maximum of 64 Kbytes of program memory. The requirements for the system conversion were developed, and hardware has been selected to allow maximum reuse of existing hardware and software while providing the required additional capabilities and capacity. The new hardware will incorporate an Intel 80286-based microprocessor board with an 80287 math coprocessor, the system includes additional memory, I/O, and RS232 communication ports.

Cooled-Spool Piston Compressor

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Brian G.

1994-01-01

Proposed cooled-spool piston compressor driven by hydraulic power and features internal cooling of piston by flowing hydraulic fluid to limit temperature of compressed gas. Provides sufficient cooling for higher compression ratios or reactive gases. Unlike conventional piston compressors, all parts of compressed gas lie at all times within relatively short distance of cooled surface so that gas cooled more effectively.

A measure of uncertainty regarding the interval constraint of normal mean elicited by two stages of a prior hierarchy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hea-Jung

2014-01-01

This paper considers a hierarchical screened Gaussian model (HSGM) for Bayesian inference of normal models when an interval constraint in the mean parameter space needs to be incorporated in the modeling but when such a restriction is uncertain. An objective measure of the uncertainty, regarding the interval constraint, accounted for by using the HSGM is proposed for the Bayesian inference. For this purpose, we drive a maximum entropy prior of the normal mean, eliciting the uncertainty regarding the interval constraint, and then obtain the uncertainty measure by considering the relationship between the maximum entropy prior and the marginal prior of the normal mean in HSGM. Bayesian estimation procedure of HSGM is developed and two numerical illustrations pertaining to the properties of the uncertainty measure are provided.

Cooling towers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korik, L.; Burger, R.

1992-01-01

What is the effect of 0.6C (1F) temperature rise across turbines, compressors, or evaporators? Enthalpy charts indicate for every 0.6C (1F) hotter water off the cooling tower will require an additional 2 1/2% more energy cost. Therefore, running 2.2C (4F) warmer due to substandard cooling towers could result in a 10% penalty for overcoming high heads and temperatures. If it costs $1,250,000.00 a year to operate the system, $125,000.00 is the energy penalty for hotter water. This paper investigates extra fuel costs involved in maintaining design electric production with cooling water 0.6C (1F) to 3C (5.5F) hotter than design. If design KWH cannot be maintained, paper will calculate dollar loss of saleable electricity. The presentation will conclude with examining the main causes of deficient cold water production. State-of-the-art upgrading and methodology available to retrofit existing cooling towers to optimize lower cooling water temperatures will be discussed

Water cooling coil

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suzuki, S; Ito, Y; Kazawa, Y

1975-02-05

Object: To provide a water cooling coil in a toroidal nuclear fusion device, in which coil is formed into a small-size in section so as not to increase dimensions, weight or the like of machineries including the coil. Structure: A conductor arranged as an outermost layer of a multiple-wind water cooling coil comprises a hollow conductor, which is directly cooled by fluid, and as a consequence, a solid conductor disposed interiorly thereof is cooled indirectly.

Theoretical analysis of the performance of different cooling strategies with the concept of cool exergy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kazanci, Ongun Berk; Shukuya, Masanori; Olesen, Bjarne W.

2016-01-01

The whole chains of exergy flows for different cooling systems were compared. The effects of cooling demand (internal vs. external solar shading), space cooling method (floor cooling vs. air cooling with ventilation system), and the availability of a nearby natural heat sink (intake air for the v......The whole chains of exergy flows for different cooling systems were compared. The effects of cooling demand (internal vs. external solar shading), space cooling method (floor cooling vs. air cooling with ventilation system), and the availability of a nearby natural heat sink (intake air...... for the ventilation system being outdoor air vs. air from the crawl-space, and air-to-water heat pump vs. ground heat exchanger as cooling source) on system exergy performance were investigated. It is crucial to minimize the cooling demand because it is possible to use a wide range of heat sinks (ground, lake, sea......-water, etc.) and indoor terminal units, only with a minimized demand. The water-based floor cooling system performed better than the air-based cooling system; when an air-to-water heat pump was used as the cooling source, the required exergy input was 28% smaller for the floor cooling system. The auxiliary...

Assessment of Competence in Clinical Reasoning and Decision-Making under Uncertainty: The Script Concordance Test Method

Science.gov (United States)

Ramaekers, Stephan; Kremer, Wim; Pilot, Albert; van Beukelen, Peter; van Keulen, Hanno

2010-01-01

Real-life, complex problems often require that decisions are made despite limited information or insufficient time to explore all relevant aspects. Incorporating authentic uncertainties into an assessment, however, poses problems in establishing results and analysing their methodological qualities. This study aims at developing a test on clinical…

The cooling of particle beams

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sessler, A.M.

1994-10-01

A review is given of the various methods which can be employed for cooling particle beams. These methods include radiation damping, stimulated radiation damping, ionization cooling, stochastic cooling, electron cooling, laser cooling, and laser cooling with beam coupling. Laser Cooling has provided beams of the lowest temperatures, namely 1 mK, but only for ions and only for the longitudinal temperature. Recent theoretical work has suggested how laser cooling, with the coupling of beam motion, can be used to reduce the ion beam temperature in all three directions. The majority of this paper is devoted to describing laser cooling and laser cooling with beam coupling

Risk, unexpected uncertainty, and estimation uncertainty: Bayesian learning in unstable settings.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elise Payzan-LeNestour

Full Text Available Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating.

Evaluating Variability and Uncertainty of Geological Strength Index at a Specific Site

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yu; Aladejare, Adeyemi Emman

2016-09-01

Geological Strength Index (GSI) is an important parameter for estimating rock mass properties. GSI can be estimated from quantitative GSI chart, as an alternative to the direct observational method which requires vast geological experience of rock. GSI chart was developed from past observations and engineering experience, with either empiricism or some theoretical simplifications. The GSI chart thereby contains model uncertainty which arises from its development. The presence of such model uncertainty affects the GSI estimated from GSI chart at a specific site; it is, therefore, imperative to quantify and incorporate the model uncertainty during GSI estimation from the GSI chart. A major challenge for quantifying the GSI chart model uncertainty is a lack of the original datasets that have been used to develop the GSI chart, since the GSI chart was developed from past experience without referring to specific datasets. This paper intends to tackle this problem by developing a Bayesian approach for quantifying the model uncertainty in GSI chart when using it to estimate GSI at a specific site. The model uncertainty in the GSI chart and the inherent spatial variability in GSI are modeled explicitly in the Bayesian approach. The Bayesian approach generates equivalent samples of GSI from the integrated knowledge of GSI chart, prior knowledge and observation data available from site investigation. Equations are derived for the Bayesian approach, and the proposed approach is illustrated using data from a drill and blast tunnel project. The proposed approach effectively tackles the problem of how to quantify the model uncertainty that arises from using GSI chart for characterization of site-specific GSI in a transparent manner.

Review of uncertainty estimates associated with models for assessing the impact of breeder reactor radioactivity releases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, C.; Little, C.A.

1982-08-01

The purpose is to summarize estimates based on currently available data of the uncertainty associated with radiological assessment models. The models being examined herein are those recommended previously for use in breeder reactor assessments. Uncertainty estimates are presented for models of atmospheric and hydrologic transport, terrestrial and aquatic food-chain bioaccumulation, and internal and external dosimetry. Both long-term and short-term release conditions are discussed. The uncertainty estimates presented in this report indicate that, for many sites, generic models and representative parameter values may be used to calculate doses from annual average radionuclide releases when these calculated doses are on the order of one-tenth or less of a relevant dose limit. For short-term, accidental releases, especially those from breeder reactors located in sites dominated by complex terrain and/or coastal meteorology, the uncertainty in the dose calculations may be much larger than an order of magnitude. As a result, it may be necessary to incorporate site-specific information into the dose calculation under these circumstances to reduce this uncertainty. However, even using site-specific information, natural variability and the uncertainties in the dose conversion factor will likely result in an overall uncertainty of greater than an order of magnitude for predictions of dose or concentration in environmental media following shortterm releases

A genetic-algorithm-aided stochastic optimization model for regional air quality management under uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Qin, Xiaosheng; Huang, Guohe; Liu, Lei

2010-01-01

A genetic-algorithm-aided stochastic optimization (GASO) model was developed in this study for supporting regional air quality management under uncertainty. The model incorporated genetic algorithm (GA) and Monte Carlo simulation techniques into a general stochastic chance-constrained programming (CCP) framework and allowed uncertainties in simulation and optimization model parameters to be considered explicitly in the design of least-cost strategies. GA was used to seek the optimal solution of the management model by progressively evaluating the performances of individual solutions. Monte Carlo simulation was used to check the feasibility of each solution. A management problem in terms of regional air pollution control was studied to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Results of the case study indicated the proposed model could effectively communicate uncertainties into the optimization process and generate solutions that contained a spectrum of potential air pollutant treatment options with risk and cost information. Decision alternatives could be obtained by analyzing tradeoffs between the overall pollutant treatment cost and the system-failure risk due to inherent uncertainties.

Emergency cooling system for a liquid metal cooled reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murata, Ryoichi; Fujiwara, Toshikatsu.

1980-01-01

Purpose: To suitably cool liquid metal as coolant in emergency in a liquid metal cooled reactor by providing a detector for the pressure loss of the liquid metal passing through a cooling device in a loop in which the liquid metal is flowed and communicating the detector with a coolant flow regulator. Constitution: A nuclear reactor is stopped in nuclear reaction by control element or the like in emergency. If decay heat is continuously generated for a while and secondary coolant is insufficiently cooled with water or steam flowed through a steam and water loop, a cooler is started. That is, low temperature air is supplied by a blower through an inlet damper to the cooler to cool the secondary coolant flowed into the cooler through a bypass pipe so as to finally safely stop an entire plant. Since the liquid metal is altered in its physical properties by the temperature at this time, it is detected to regulate the opening of the valve of the damper according to the detected value. (Sekiya, K.)

[Influence of Uncertainty and Uncertainty Appraisal on Self-management in Hemodialysis Patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Jang, Hyung Suk; Lee, Chang Suk; Yang, Young Hee

2015-04-01

This study was done to examine the relation of uncertainty, uncertainty appraisal, and self-management in patients undergoing hemodialysis, and to identify factors influencing self-management. A convenience sample of 92 patients receiving hemodialysis was selected. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire and medical records. The collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, t-test, ANOVA, Pearson correlations and multiple regression analysis with the SPSS/WIN 20.0 program. The participants showed a moderate level of uncertainty with the highest score being for ambiguity among the four uncertainty subdomains. Scores for uncertainty danger or opportunity appraisals were under the mid points. The participants were found to perform a high level of self-management such as diet control, management of arteriovenous fistula, exercise, medication, physical management, measurements of body weight and blood pressure, and social activity. The self-management of participants undergoing hemodialysis showed a significant relationship with uncertainty and uncertainty appraisal. The significant factors influencing self-management were uncertainty, uncertainty opportunity appraisal, hemodialysis duration, and having a spouse. These variables explained 32.8% of the variance in self-management. The results suggest that intervention programs to reduce the level of uncertainty and to increase the level of uncertainty opportunity appraisal among patients would improve the self-management of hemodialysis patients.

Hybrid radiator cooling system

Science.gov (United States)

France, David M.; Smith, David S.; Yu, Wenhua; Routbort, Jules L.

2016-03-15

A method and hybrid radiator-cooling apparatus for implementing enhanced radiator-cooling are provided. The hybrid radiator-cooling apparatus includes an air-side finned surface for air cooling; an elongated vertically extending surface extending outwardly from the air-side finned surface on a downstream air-side of the hybrid radiator; and a water supply for selectively providing evaporative cooling with water flow by gravity on the elongated vertically extending surface.

Total error vs. measurement uncertainty: revolution or evolution?

Science.gov (United States)

Oosterhuis, Wytze P; Theodorsson, Elvar

2016-02-01

The first strategic EFLM conference "Defining analytical performance goals, 15 years after the Stockholm Conference" was held in the autumn of 2014 in Milan. It maintained the Stockholm 1999 hierarchy of performance goals but rearranged them and established five task and finish groups to work on topics related to analytical performance goals including one on the "total error" theory. Jim Westgard recently wrote a comprehensive overview of performance goals and of the total error theory critical of the results and intentions of the Milan 2014 conference. The "total error" theory originated by Jim Westgard and co-workers has a dominating influence on the theory and practice of clinical chemistry but is not accepted in other fields of metrology. The generally accepted uncertainty theory, however, suffers from complex mathematics and conceived impracticability in clinical chemistry. The pros and cons of the total error theory need to be debated, making way for methods that can incorporate all relevant causes of uncertainty when making medical diagnoses and monitoring treatment effects. This development should preferably proceed not as a revolution but as an evolution.

Meltdown reactor core cooling facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsuoka, Tsuyoshi.

1992-01-01

The meltdown reactor core cooling facility comprises a meltdown reactor core cooling tank, a cooling water storage tank situates at a position higher than the meltdown reactor core cooling tank, an upper pipeline connecting the upper portions of the both of the tanks and a lower pipeline connecting the lower portions of them. Upon occurrence of reactor core meltdown, a high temperature meltdown reactor core is dropped on the cooling tank to partially melt the tank and form a hole, from which cooling water is flown out. Since the water source of the cooling water is the cooling water storage tank, a great amount of cooling water is further dropped and supplied and the reactor core is submerged and cooled by natural convection for a long period of time. Further, when the lump of the meltdown reactor core is small and the perforated hole of the meltdown reactor cooling tank is small, cooling water is boiled by the high temperature lump intruding into the meltdown reactor core cooling tank and blown out from the upper pipeline to the cooling water storage tank to supply cooling water from the lower pipeline to the meltdown reactor core cooling tank. Since it is constituted only with simple static facilities, the facility can be simplified to attain improvement of reliability. (N.H.)

Estimating uncertainty in multivariate responses to selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Stinchcombe, John R; Simonsen, Anna K; Blows, Mark W

2014-04-01

Predicting the responses to natural selection is one of the key goals of evolutionary biology. Two of the challenges in fulfilling this goal have been the realization that many estimates of natural selection might be highly biased by environmentally induced covariances between traits and fitness, and that many estimated responses to selection do not incorporate or report uncertainty in the estimates. Here we describe the application of a framework that blends the merits of the Robertson-Price Identity approach and the multivariate breeder's equation to address these challenges. The approach allows genetic covariance matrices, selection differentials, selection gradients, and responses to selection to be estimated without environmentally induced bias, direct and indirect selection and responses to selection to be distinguished, and if implemented in a Bayesian-MCMC framework, statistically robust estimates of uncertainty on all of these parameters to be made. We illustrate our approach with a worked example of previously published data. More generally, we suggest that applying both the Robertson-Price Identity and the multivariate breeder's equation will facilitate hypothesis testing about natural selection, genetic constraints, and evolutionary responses. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Creating dialogue: a workshop on "Uncertainty in Decision Making in a Changing Climate"

Science.gov (United States)

Ewen, Tracy; Addor, Nans; Johnson, Leigh; Coltekin, Arzu; Derungs, Curdin; Muccione, Veruska

2014-05-01

Uncertainty is present in all fields of climate research, spanning from projections of future climate change, to assessing regional impacts and vulnerabilities, to adaptation policy and decision-making. In addition to uncertainties, managers and planners in many sectors are often confronted with large amounts of information from climate change research whose complex and interdisciplinary nature make it challenging to incorporate into the decision-making process. An overarching issue in tackling this problem is the lack of institutionalized dialogue between climate researchers, decision-makers and user groups. Forums that facilitate such dialogue would allow climate researchers to actively engage with end-users and researchers in different disciplines to better characterize uncertainties and ultimately understand which ones are critically considered and incorporated into decisions made. We propose that the introduction of students to these challenges at an early stage of their education and career is a first step towards improving future dialogue between climate researchers, decision-makers and user groups. To this end, we organized a workshop at the University of Zurich, Switzerland, entitled "Uncertainty in Decision Making in a Changing Climate". It brought together 50 participants, including Bachelor, Master and PhD students and academic staff, and nine selected speakers from academia, industry, government, and philanthropy. Speakers introduced participants to topics ranging from uncertainties in climate model scenarios to managing uncertainties in development and aid agencies. The workshop consisted of experts' presentations, a panel discussion and student group work on case studies. Pedagogical goals included i) providing participants with an overview of the current research on uncertainty and on how uncertainty is dealt with by decision-makers, ii) fostering exchange between practitioners, students, and scientists from different backgrounds, iii) exposing

Distribution of chromium in vegetation and small mammals adjacent to cooling towers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taylor, F.G. Jr.; Parr, P.D.; Dahlman, R.C.

1975-01-01

Surface contamination of vegetation by aerosol pollutants and subsequent ingestion by grazing vertebrates is a pathway for incorporation of toxic elements into food chains. Small mammals (herbivores) were live-trapped in a fescue-dominated field adjacent to large, mechanical draft cooling towers comparable to those utilized by power generation facilities. Cooling waters of the towers contain a chromate, zinc-phosphate compound to inhibit corrosion and fouling within the cooling system. A fraction of the cooling water becomes entrained within the exit air flow and is deposited as drift on the landscape. Resident mammals are chronically subjected to increased chromium exposures through both ingestion and inhalation pathways. Concentrations in vegetation ranged from 342 to 15 ppM at 15 and 130 meters down wind. Concentration levels in litter exceeded those of live plant materials by a factor of 5. Chromium distribution in mammals adjacent to the cooling towers is compared by organ analyses to corresponding organs and tissues of mammals collected remote from drift. Concentrations of chromium in pelt, hair, and bone of animals trapped near the cooling towers were significantly higher (P is less than 0.01) than tissues from control animals. Air concentrations ranged from 15 to 8 μg/m 3 at 15 and 100 meters, and thus provided a potential pathway for increased chromium levels through inhalation. Biological accumulation and retention following ingestion are discussed in a subsequent paper in this symposium (Van Hook et al.). Elevated levels of hexavalent chromium in air have been identified as a potential health hazard. Pathological studies of lung tissues were performed and were negative for lesions. (U.S.)

Employing Sensitivity Derivatives for Robust Optimization under Uncertainty in CFD

Science.gov (United States)

Newman, Perry A.; Putko, Michele M.; Taylor, Arthur C., III

2004-01-01

A robust optimization is demonstrated on a two-dimensional inviscid airfoil problem in subsonic flow. Given uncertainties in statistically independent, random, normally distributed flow parameters (input variables), an approximate first-order statistical moment method is employed to represent the Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code outputs as expected values with variances. These output quantities are used to form the objective function and constraints. The constraints are cast in probabilistic terms; that is, the probability that a constraint is satisfied is greater than or equal to some desired target probability. Gradient-based robust optimization of this stochastic problem is accomplished through use of both first and second-order sensitivity derivatives. For each robust optimization, the effect of increasing both input standard deviations and target probability of constraint satisfaction are demonstrated. This method provides a means for incorporating uncertainty when considering small deviations from input mean values.

Cooled Water Production System,

Science.gov (United States)

The invention refers to the field of air conditioning and regards an apparatus for obtaining cooled water . The purpose of the invention is to develop...such a system for obtaining cooled water which would permit the maximum use of the cooling effect of the water -cooling tower.

Demonstration and Validation of Corrosion-Mitigation Technologies for Mechanical Room Utility Piping and Cooling-Tower Pumps

Science.gov (United States)

2015-05-01

34advanced material for cooling pump shafts" Stainless steel (316 or 416 ) Floway Pump Company, Fresno, CA 316 or 416 stainless steel shafts to replace...pump 5 incorporating 316 stainless steel housing. .................................... 19 Figure 13. New pump 5 being installed...43 Figure 28. Pump 5 (316 Stainless Steel ), 12 months exposure. .......................................... 43

The study on the evaporation cooling efficiency and effectiveness of cooling tower of film type

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Yingjian; You Xinkui; Qiu Qi; Li Jiezhi

2011-01-01

Based on heat and mass transport mechanism of film type cooling, which was combined with an on-site test on counter flow film type cooling tower, a mathematical model on the evaporation and cooling efficiency and effectiveness has been developed. Under typical climatic conditions, air conditioning load and the operating condition, the mass and heat balances have been calculated for the air and the cooling water including the volume of evaporative cooling water. Changing rule has been measured and calculated between coefficient of performance (COP) and chiller load. The influences of air and cooling water parameters on the evaporative cooling efficiency were analyzed in cooling tower restrained by latent heat evaporative cooling, and detailed derivation and computation revealed that both the evaporative cooling efficiency and effectiveness of cooling tower are the same characteristics parameters of the thermal performance of a cooling tower under identical assumptions.

Multidisciplinary design optimization of film-cooled gas turbine blades

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Talya Shashishekara S.

1999-01-01

Full Text Available Design optimization of a gas turbine blade geometry for effective film cooling toreduce the blade temperature has been done using a multiobjective optimization formulation. Three optimization formulations have been used. In the first, the average blade temperature is chosen as the objective function to be minimized. An upper bound constraint has been imposed on the maximum blade temperature. In the second, the maximum blade temperature is chosen as the objective function to be minimized with an upper bound constraint on the average blade temperature. In the third formulation, the blade average and maximum temperatures are chosen as objective functions. Shape optimization is performed using geometric parameters associated with film cooling and blade external shape. A quasi-three-dimensional Navier–Stokes solver for turbomachinery flows is used to solve for the flow field external to the blade with appropriate modifications to incorporate the effect of film cooling. The heat transfer analysis for temperature distribution within the blade is performed by solving the heat diffusion equation using the finite element method. The multiobjective Kreisselmeier–Steinhauser function approach has been used in conjunction with an approximate analysis technique for optimization. The results obtained using both formulations are compared with reference geometry. All three formulations yield significant reductions in blade temperature with the multiobjective formulation yielding largest reduction in blade temperature.

Ventilative Cooling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Heiselberg, Per Kvols; Kolokotroni, Maria

This report, by venticool, summarises the outcome of the work of the initial working phase of IEA ECB Annex 62 Ventilative Cooling and is based on the findings in the participating countries. It presents a summary of the first official Annex 62 report that describes the state-of-the-art of ventil......This report, by venticool, summarises the outcome of the work of the initial working phase of IEA ECB Annex 62 Ventilative Cooling and is based on the findings in the participating countries. It presents a summary of the first official Annex 62 report that describes the state......-of-the-art of ventilative cooling potentials and limitations, its consideration in current energy performance regulations, available building components and control strategies and analysis methods and tools. In addition, the report provides twenty six examples of operational buildings using ventilative cooling ranging from...

Passive safety features in current and future water cooled reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-11-01

Better understanding of the passive safety systems and components in current and future water-cooled reactors may enhance the safety of present reactors, to the extend passive features are backfitted. This better understanding should also improve the safety of future reactors, which can incorporate more of these features. Passive safety systems and components may help to prevent accidents, core damage, or release radionuclides to the environment. The Technical Committee Meeting which was hosted by the USSR State Committee for Utilization of Nuclear Energy was attended by about 80 experts from 16 IAEA Member States and the NEA-OECD. A total of 21 papers were presented during the meeting. The objective of the meeting was to review and discuss passive safety systems and features of current and future water cooled reactor designs and to exchange information in this area of activity. A separate abstract was prepared for each of the 21 papers published in this proceedings. Refs, figs and tabs

Inexact Multistage Stochastic Chance Constrained Programming Model for Water Resources Management under Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In order to formulate water allocation schemes under uncertainties in the water resources management systems, an inexact multistage stochastic chance constrained programming (IMSCCP model is proposed. The model integrates stochastic chance constrained programming, multistage stochastic programming, and inexact stochastic programming within a general optimization framework to handle the uncertainties occurring in both constraints and objective. These uncertainties are expressed as probability distributions, interval with multiply distributed stochastic boundaries, dynamic features of the long-term water allocation plans, and so on. Compared with the existing inexact multistage stochastic programming, the IMSCCP can be used to assess more system risks and handle more complicated uncertainties in water resources management systems. The IMSCCP model is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. In order to construct an approximate solution for the model, a hybrid algorithm, which incorporates stochastic simulation, back propagation neural network, and genetic algorithm, is proposed. The results show that the optimal value represents the maximal net system benefit achieved with a given confidence level under chance constraints, and the solutions provide optimal water allocation schemes to multiple users over a multiperiod planning horizon.

Simulating fuel behavior under transient conditions using FRAPTRAN and uncertainty analysis using Dakota

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomes, Daniel S.; Teixeira, Antonio S.

2017-01-01

Although regulatory agencies have shown a special interest in incorporating best estimate approaches in the fuel licensing process, fuel codes are currently licensed based on only the deterministic limits such as those seen in 10CRF50, and therefore, may yield unrealistic safety margins. The concept of uncertainty analysis is employed to more realistically manage this risk. In this study, uncertainties were classified into two categories: probabilistic and epistemic (owing to a lack of pre-existing knowledge in this area). Fuel rods have three sources of uncertainty: manufacturing tolerance, boundary conditions, and physical models. The first step in successfully analyzing the uncertainties involves performing a statistical analysis on the input parameters used throughout the fuel code. The response obtained from this analysis must show proportional index correlations because the uncertainties are globally propagated. The Dakota toolkit was used to analyze the FRAPTRAN transient fuel code. The subsequent sensitivity analyses helped in identifying the key parameters with the highest correlation indices including the peak cladding temperature and the time required for cladding failures. The uncertainty analysis was performed using an IFA-650-5 fuel rod, which was in line with the tests performed in the Halden Project in Norway. The main objectives of the Halden project included studying the ballooning and rupture processes. The results of this experiment demonstrate the accuracy and applicability of the physical models in evaluating the thermal conductivity, mechanical model, and fuel swelling formulations. (author)

Simulating fuel behavior under transient conditions using FRAPTRAN and uncertainty analysis using Dakota

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomes, Daniel S.; Teixeira, Antonio S., E-mail: dsgomes@ipen.br, E-mail: teixeira@ipen [Instituto de Pesquisas Energéticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), São Paulo, SP (Brazil)

2017-07-01

Although regulatory agencies have shown a special interest in incorporating best estimate approaches in the fuel licensing process, fuel codes are currently licensed based on only the deterministic limits such as those seen in 10CRF50, and therefore, may yield unrealistic safety margins. The concept of uncertainty analysis is employed to more realistically manage this risk. In this study, uncertainties were classified into two categories: probabilistic and epistemic (owing to a lack of pre-existing knowledge in this area). Fuel rods have three sources of uncertainty: manufacturing tolerance, boundary conditions, and physical models. The first step in successfully analyzing the uncertainties involves performing a statistical analysis on the input parameters used throughout the fuel code. The response obtained from this analysis must show proportional index correlations because the uncertainties are globally propagated. The Dakota toolkit was used to analyze the FRAPTRAN transient fuel code. The subsequent sensitivity analyses helped in identifying the key parameters with the highest correlation indices including the peak cladding temperature and the time required for cladding failures. The uncertainty analysis was performed using an IFA-650-5 fuel rod, which was in line with the tests performed in the Halden Project in Norway. The main objectives of the Halden project included studying the ballooning and rupture processes. The results of this experiment demonstrate the accuracy and applicability of the physical models in evaluating the thermal conductivity, mechanical model, and fuel swelling formulations. (author)

Development and comparison in uncertainty assessment based Bayesian modularization method in hydrological modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lu; Xu, Chong-Yu; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2013-04-01

SummaryWith respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, various regression and probabilistic approaches are used in hydrological modeling. A family of Bayesian methods, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayes' theorem, is widely used for uncertainty assessment. However, none of these approaches can well treat the impact of high flows in hydrological modeling. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization uncertainty assessment approach in which the highest streamflow observations are treated as suspect information that should not influence the inference of the main bulk of the model parameters. This study includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by our new Bayesian modularization method and standard Bayesian methods using the Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions were used in combination with standard Bayesian method: the AR(1) plus Normal model independent of time (Model 1), the AR(1) plus Normal model dependent on time (Model 2) and the AR(1) plus Multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that the Bayesian modularization method provides the most accurate streamflow estimates measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and provide the best in uncertainty estimates for low, medium and entire flows compared to standard Bayesian methods. The study thus provides a new approach for reducing the impact of high flows on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian method.

Instrument uncertainty predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coutts, D.A.

1991-07-01

The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

Tarp-Assisted Cooling as a Method of Whole-Body Cooling in Hyperthermic Individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosokawa, Yuri; Adams, William M; Belval, Luke N; Vandermark, Lesley W; Casa, Douglas J

2017-03-01

We investigated the efficacy of tarp-assisted cooling as a body cooling modality. Participants exercised on a motorized treadmill in hot conditions (ambient temperature 39.5°C [103.1°F], SD 3.1°C [5.58°F]; relative humidity 38.1% [SD 6.7%]) until they reached exercise-induced hyperthermia. After exercise, participants were cooled with either partial immersion using a tarp-assisted cooling method (water temperature 9.20°C [48.56°F], SD 2.81°C [5.06°F]) or passive cooling in a climatic chamber. There were no differences in exercise duration (mean difference=0.10 minutes; 95% CI -5.98 to 6.17 minutes or end exercise rectal temperature (mean difference=0.10°C [0.18°F]; 95% CI -0.05°C to 0.25°C [-0.09°F to 0.45°F] between tarp-assisted cooling (48.47 minutes [SD 8.27 minutes]; rectal temperature 39.73°C [103.51°F], SD 0.27°C [0.49°F]) and passive cooling (48.37 minutes [SD 7.10 minutes]; 39.63°C [103.33°F], SD 0.40°C [0.72°F]). Cooling time to rectal temperature 38.25°C (100.85°F) was significantly faster in tarp-assisted cooling (10.30 minutes [SD 1.33 minutes]) than passive cooling (42.78 [SD 5.87 minutes]). Cooling rates for tarp-assisted cooling and passive cooling were 0.17°C/min (0.31°F/min), SD 0.07°C/min (0.13°F/min) and 0.04°C/min (0.07°F/min), SD 0.01°C/min (0.02°F/min), respectively (mean difference=0.13°C [0.23°F]; 95% CI 0.09°C to 0.17°C [0.16°F to 0.31°F]. No sex differences were observed in tarp-assisted cooling rates (men 0.17°C/min [0.31°F/min], SD 0.07°C/min [0.13°F/min]; women 0.16°C/min [0.29°F/min], SD 0.07°C/min [0.13°F/min]; mean difference=0.02°C/min [0.04°F/min]; 95% CI -0.06°C/min to 0.10°C/min [-0.11°F/min to 0.18°F/min]). Women (0.04°C/min [0.07°F/min], SD 0.01°C/min [0.02°F/min]) had greater cooling rates than men (0.03°C/min [0.05°F/min], SD 0.01°C/min [0.02°F/min]) in passive cooling, with negligible clinical effect (mean difference=0.01°C/min [0.02°F/min]; 95% CI 0.001�

Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

Science.gov (United States)

McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

2015-04-01

Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

Uncertainties in model-based outcome predictions for treatment planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deasy, Joseph O.; Chao, K.S. Clifford; Markman, Jerry

2001-01-01

plans can be ranked based on the probability that one plan is superior to another. Thus, reliability of plan ranking could also be assessed. Conclusions: A comprehensive framework for incorporating uncertainties into treatment-plan-specific outcome predictions is described. Uncertainty histograms for continuous variable endpoint models provide a straightforward method for visual review of the reliability of outcome predictions for each treatment plan

Process fluid cooling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Farquhar, N.G.; Schwab, J.A.

1977-01-01

A system of heat exchangers is disclosed for cooling process fluids. The system is particularly applicable to cooling steam generator blowdown fluid in a nuclear plant prior to chemical purification of the fluid in which it minimizes the potential of boiling of the plant cooling water which cools the blowdown fluid

Optimal Scanning Bandwidth Strategy Incorporating Uncertainty about Adversary’s Characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey Garnaev

2014-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the problem of designing a spectrum scanning strategy to detect an intelligent Invader who wants to utilize spectrum undetected for his/her unapproved purposes. To deal with this problem we model the situation as two games, between a Scanner and an Invader, and solve them sequentially. The first game is formulated to design the optimal (in maxmin sense scanning algorithm, while the second one allows one to find the optimal values of the parameters for the algorithm depending on the parameters of the network. These games provide solutions for two dilemmas that the rivals face. The Invader’s dilemma consists of the following: the more bandwidth the Invader attempts to use leads to a larger payoff if he is not detected, but at the same time also increases the probability of being detected and thus fined. Similarly, the Scanner faces a dilemma: the wider the bandwidth scanned, the higher the probability of detecting the Invader, but at the expense of increasing the cost of building the scanning system. The equilibrium strategies are found explicitly and reveal interesting properties. In particular, we have found a discontinuous dependence of the equilibrium strategies on the network parameters, fine and the type of the Invader’s award. This discontinuity of the fine means that the network provider has to take into account a human/social factor since some threshold values of fine could be very sensible for the Invader, while in other situations simply increasing the fine has a minimal deterrence impact. Also we show how incomplete information about the Invader’s technical characteristics and reward (e.g. motivated by using different type of application, say, video-streaming or downloading files can be incorporated into the scanning strategy to increase its efficiency.

A Measure of Uncertainty regarding the Interval Constraint of Normal Mean Elicited by Two Stages of a Prior Hierarchy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hea-Jung Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers a hierarchical screened Gaussian model (HSGM for Bayesian inference of normal models when an interval constraint in the mean parameter space needs to be incorporated in the modeling but when such a restriction is uncertain. An objective measure of the uncertainty, regarding the interval constraint, accounted for by using the HSGM is proposed for the Bayesian inference. For this purpose, we drive a maximum entropy prior of the normal mean, eliciting the uncertainty regarding the interval constraint, and then obtain the uncertainty measure by considering the relationship between the maximum entropy prior and the marginal prior of the normal mean in HSGM. Bayesian estimation procedure of HSGM is developed and two numerical illustrations pertaining to the properties of the uncertainty measure are provided.

Uncertainty and measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Landsberg, P.T.

1990-01-01

This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

Emergency cooling system for a gas-cooled nuclear reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, R.K.; Burylo, P.S.

1975-01-01

The site of the gas-cooled reactor with direct-circuit gas turbine is preferably the sea coast. An emergency cooling system with safety valve and emergency feed-water addition is designed which affects at least a part of the reactor core coolant after leaving the core. The emergency cooling system includes a water emergency cooling circuit with heat exchanger for the core coolant. The safety valve releases water or steam from the emergency coolant circuit when a certain temperature is exceeded; this is, however, replaced by the emergency feed-water. If the gas turbine exhibits a high and low pressure turbine stage, which are flowed through by coolant one behind another, a part of the coolant can be removed in front of each part turbine by two valves and be added to the haet exchanger. (RW/LH) [de

Comparative economic performance of selected passive solar heating and cooling technologies

Science.gov (United States)

Rutter, W.

1981-05-01

The economic performance of selected passive solar heating and cooling technologies which incorporate energy storage is assessed by using a set of uniform assumptions and methodologies. Where data are available, a given system is assessed at more than one geographical location. Results are obtained in the form of both payback period and net present value for residential applications, and in terms of net present value only for industrial/commercial uses. Results indicate that ventilated trombe walls, solar roof ponds, and certain night effect/floor storage strategies are cost effective, but night effect/rock bed cooling is not. Results also show that, although direct gain out-performs trombe walls in most parts of the country, both direct gain and trombe walls usually produce a net savings in the residential sector. Generally, however, tax regulations result in net economic loss for direct gain and trombe walls used to heat industrial and commercial buildings.

Impact of nuclear data on sodium-cooled fast reactor calculations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aures, A.; Bostelmann, F.; Zwermann, W.; Velkov, K.

2016-01-01

Neutron transport and depletion calculations are performed in combination with various nuclear data libraries in order to assess the impact of nuclear data on safety-relevant parameters of sodium-cooled fast reactors. These calculations are supplemented by systematic uncertainty analyses with respect to nuclear data. Analysed quantities are the multiplication factor and nuclide densities as a function of burn-up and the Doppler and Na-void reactivity coefficients at begin of cycle. While ENDF/B-VII.0 / -VII.1 yield rather consistent results, larger discrepancies are observed between the JEFF libraries. While the newest evaluation, JEFF-3.2, agrees with the ENDF/B-VII libraries, the JEFF-3.1.2 library yields significant larger multiplication factors. (authors)

Storage of HLW in engineered structures: air-cooled and water-cooled concepts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahner, S.; Dekais, J.J.; Puttke, B.; Staner, P.

1981-01-01

A comparative study on an air-cooled and a water-cooled intermediate storage of vitrified, highly radioactive waste (HLW) in overground installations has been performed by Nukem and Belgonucleaire respectively. In the air-cooled storage concept the decay heat from the storage area will be removed using natural convection. In the water-cooled storage concept the decay heat is carried off by a primary and secondary forced-cooling system with redundant and diverse devices. The safety study carried out by Nukem used a fault tree method. It shows that the reliability of the designed water-cooled system is very high and comparable to the inherent, safe, air-cooled system. The impact for both concepts on the environment is determined by the release route, but even during accident conditions the release is far below permissible limits. The economic analysis carried out by Belgonucleaire shows that the construction costs for both systems do not differ very much, but the operation and maintenance costs for the water-cooled facility are higher than for the air cooled facility. The result of the safety and economic analysis and the discussions with the members of the working group have shown some possible significant modifications for both systems, which are included in this report. The whole study has been carried out using certain national criteria which, in certain Member States at least, would lead to a higher standard of safety than can be justified on any social, political or economic grounds

Optimized production planning model for a multi-plant cultivation system under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Ke, Shunkui; Guo, Doudou; Niu, Qingliang; Huang, Danfeng

2015-02-01

An inexact multi-constraint programming model under uncertainty was developed by incorporating a production plan algorithm into the crop production optimization framework under the multi-plant collaborative cultivation system. In the production plan, orders from the customers are assigned to a suitable plant under the constraints of plant capabilities and uncertainty parameters to maximize profit and achieve customer satisfaction. The developed model and solution method were applied to a case study of a multi-plant collaborative cultivation system to verify its applicability. As determined in the case analysis involving different orders from customers, the period of plant production planning and the interval between orders can significantly affect system benefits. Through the analysis of uncertain parameters, reliable and practical decisions can be generated using the suggested model of a multi-plant collaborative cultivation system.

Experimental and numerical analysis for potential heat reuse in liquid cooled data centres

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carbó, Andreu; Oró, Eduard; Salom, Jaume; Canuto, Mauro; Macías, Mario; Guitart, Jordi

2016-01-01

Highlights: • The potential heat reuse of a liquid data centre has been characterized. • Dynamic behaviours of a liquid cooled data centre have been studied. • A dynamic energy model of liquid cooling data centres is developed. • The dynamic energy model has been validated with experimental data. • Server usage and consumption relation was developed for different IT loads. - Abstract: The rapid increase of data centre industry has stimulated the interest of both researchers and professionals in order to reduce energy consumption and carbon footprint of these unique infrastructures. The implementation of energy efficiency strategies and the use of renewables play an important role to reduce the overall data centre energy demand. Information Technology (IT) equipment produce vast amount of heat which must be removed and therefore waste heat recovery is a likely energy efficiency strategy to be studied in detail. To evaluate the potential of heat reuse a unique liquid cooled data centre test bench was designed and built. An extensive thermal characterization under different scenarios was performed. The effective liquid cooling capacity is affected by the inlet water temperature. The lower the inlet water temperature the higher the liquid cooling capacity; however, the outlet water temperature will be also low. Therefore, the requirements of the heat reuse application play an important role in the optimization of the cooling configuration. The experimental data was then used to validate a dynamic energy model developed in TRNSYS. This model is able to predict the behaviour of liquid cooling data centres and can be used to study the potential compatibility between large data centres with different heat reuse applications. The model also incorporates normalized power consumption profiles for heterogeneous workloads that have been derived from realistic IT loads.

The role of the uncertainty in code development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barre, F. [CEA-Grenoble (France)

1997-07-01

From a general point of view, all the results of a calculation should be given with their uncertainty. It is of most importance in nuclear safety where sizing of the safety systems, therefore protection of the population and the environment essentially depends on the calculation results. Until these last years, the safety analysis was performed with conservative tools. Two types of critics can be made. Firstly, conservative margins can be too large and it may be possible to reduce the cost of the plant or its operation with a best estimate approach. Secondly, some of the conservative hypotheses may not really conservative in the full range of physical events which can occur during an accident. Simpson gives an interesting example: in some cases, the majoration of the residual power during a small break LOCA can lead to an overprediction of the swell level and thus of an overprediction of the core cooling, which is opposite to a conservative prediction. A last question is: does the accumulation of conservative hypotheses for a problem always give a conservative result? The two phase flow physics, mainly dealing with situation of mechanical and thermal non-equilibrium, is too much complicated to answer these questions with a simple engineer judgement. The objective of this paper is to make a review of the quantification of the uncertainties which can be made during code development and validation.

The role of the uncertainty in code development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barre, F.

1997-01-01

From a general point of view, all the results of a calculation should be given with their uncertainty. It is of most importance in nuclear safety where sizing of the safety systems, therefore protection of the population and the environment essentially depends on the calculation results. Until these last years, the safety analysis was performed with conservative tools. Two types of critics can be made. Firstly, conservative margins can be too large and it may be possible to reduce the cost of the plant or its operation with a best estimate approach. Secondly, some of the conservative hypotheses may not really conservative in the full range of physical events which can occur during an accident. Simpson gives an interesting example: in some cases, the majoration of the residual power during a small break LOCA can lead to an overprediction of the swell level and thus of an overprediction of the core cooling, which is opposite to a conservative prediction. A last question is: does the accumulation of conservative hypotheses for a problem always give a conservative result? The two phase flow physics, mainly dealing with situation of mechanical and thermal non-equilibrium, is too much complicated to answer these questions with a simple engineer judgement. The objective of this paper is to make a review of the quantification of the uncertainties which can be made during code development and validation

Reprint of: Production scheduling of a lignite mine under quality and reserves uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galetakis, Michael; Roumpos, Christos; Alevizos, George; Vamvuka, Despina

2012-01-01

The effect of uncertainty sources to the stochastic optimization of the combined project of a new surface lignite mine exploitation and power plant operation for electricity generation is investigated. Major sources of uncertainty that were considered are the reserves and the quality of the lignite. Since probability distribution functions for these uncertainties were estimated during the detailed exploration phase of the deposit, the overall goal is then to determine the optimal capacity of the power plant and consequently the optimal production rate of the mine over the time. The optimization objective that was selected is the maximization of the net present value of the project. Emphasis is placed on the sensitivity analysis for the investigation of the effect of quality and reserves uncertainty on project optimization, on the mathematical formulation of risk attitude strategy and on increasing the efficiency of the optimization process by creating a limited set of feasible solutions applying empirical rules. The developed methodology was applied for the determination of the optimal annual production rate of a new surface lignite mine in the area of Ptolemais–Amynteon in Northern Greece. - Highlights: ► Quality and reserves uncertainty affects considerably the production scheduling. ► Stochastic optimization is greatly accelerated by incorporating Taylor's rule. ► Decisions can be made considering different risk level attitudes.

Cooling water distribution system

Science.gov (United States)

Orr, Richard

1994-01-01

A passive containment cooling system for a nuclear reactor containment vessel. Disclosed is a cooling water distribution system for introducing cooling water by gravity uniformly over the outer surface of a steel containment vessel using an interconnected series of radial guide elements, a plurality of circumferential collector elements and collector boxes to collect and feed the cooling water into distribution channels extending along the curved surface of the steel containment vessel. The cooling water is uniformly distributed over the curved surface by a plurality of weirs in the distribution channels.

Improvement of Modeling HTGR Neutron Physics by Uncertainty Analysis with the Use of Cross-Section Covariance Information

Science.gov (United States)

Boyarinov, V. F.; Grol, A. V.; Fomichenko, P. A.; Ternovykh, M. Yu

2017-01-01

This work is aimed at improvement of HTGR neutron physics design calculations by application of uncertainty analysis with the use of cross-section covariance information. Methodology and codes for preparation of multigroup libraries of covariance information for individual isotopes from the basic 44-group library of SCALE-6 code system were developed. A 69-group library of covariance information in a special format for main isotopes and elements typical for high temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGR) was generated. This library can be used for estimation of uncertainties, associated with nuclear data, in analysis of HTGR neutron physics with design codes. As an example, calculations of one-group cross-section uncertainties for fission and capture reactions for main isotopes of the MHTGR-350 benchmark, as well as uncertainties of the multiplication factor (k∞) for the MHTGR-350 fuel compact cell model and fuel block model were performed. These uncertainties were estimated by the developed technology with the use of WIMS-D code and modules of SCALE-6 code system, namely, by TSUNAMI, KENO-VI and SAMS. Eight most important reactions on isotopes for MHTGR-350 benchmark were identified, namely: 10B(capt), 238U(n,γ), ν5, 235U(n,γ), 238U(el), natC(el), 235U(fiss)-235U(n,γ), 235U(fiss).

Reducing water consumption of an industrial plant cooling unit using hybrid cooling tower

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rezaei, Ebrahim; Shafiei, Sirous; Abdollahnezhad, Aydin

2010-01-01

Water consumption is an important problem in dry zones and poor water supply areas. For these areas use of a combination of wet and dry cooling towers (hybrid cooling) has been suggested in order to reduce water consumption. In this work, wet and dry sections of a hybrid cooling tower for the estimation of water loss was modeled. A computer code was also written to simulate such hybrid cooling tower. To test the result of this simulation, a pilot hybrid tower containing a wet tower and 12 compact air cooled heat exchangers was designed and constructed. Pilot data were compared with simulation data and a correction factor was added to the simulation. Ensuring that the simulation represents the actual data, it was applied to a real industrial case and the effect of using a dry tower on water loss reduction of this plant cooling unit was investigated. Finally feasibility study was carried out to choose the best operating conditions for the hybrid cooling tower configuration proposed for this cooling unit.

Parameter and input data uncertainty estimation for the assessment of water resources in two sub-basins of the Limpopo River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Oosthuizen

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The demand for water resources is rapidly growing, placing more strain on access to water and its management. In order to appropriately manage water resources, there is a need to accurately quantify available water resources. Unfortunately, the data required for such assessment are frequently far from sufficient in terms of availability and quality, especially in southern Africa. In this study, the uncertainty related to the estimation of water resources of two sub-basins of the Limpopo River Basin – the Mogalakwena in South Africa and the Shashe shared between Botswana and Zimbabwe – is assessed. Input data (and model parameters are significant sources of uncertainty that should be quantified. In southern Africa water use data are among the most unreliable sources of model input data because available databases generally consist of only licensed information and actual use is generally unknown. The study assesses how these uncertainties impact the estimation of surface water resources of the sub-basins. Data on farm reservoirs and irrigated areas from various sources were collected and used to run the model. Many farm dams and large irrigation areas are located in the upper parts of the Mogalakwena sub-basin. Results indicate that water use uncertainty is small. Nevertheless, the medium to low flows are clearly impacted. The simulated mean monthly flows at the outlet of the Mogalakwena sub-basin were between 22.62 and 24.68 Mm3 per month when incorporating only the uncertainty related to the main physical runoff generating parameters. The range of total predictive uncertainty of the model increased to between 22.15 and 24.99 Mm3 when water use data such as small farm and large reservoirs and irrigation were included. For the Shashe sub-basin incorporating only uncertainty related to the main runoff parameters resulted in mean monthly flows between 11.66 and 14.54 Mm3. The range of predictive uncertainty changed to between 11.66 and 17

A study on the assessment of safety culture impacts on risk of nuclear power plants using common uncertainty source model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yong Suk; Bang, Young Suk; Chung, Chang Hyun; Jeong, Ji Hwan

2004-01-01

Since International Safety Advisory Group (INSAG) introduced term 'safety culture', it has been widely recognized that safety culture has an important role in safety of nuclear power plants. Research on the safety culture can be divided in the following two parts. 1) Assessment of safety culture (by interview, questionnaire, etc.) 2) Assessment of link between safety culture and safety of nuclear power plants. There is a substantial body of literature that addresses the first part, but there is much less work that addresses the second part. To address the second part, most work focused on the development of model incorporating safety culture into Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). One of the most advanced methodology in the area of incorporating safety culture quantitatively into PSA is System Dynamics (SD) model developed by Kwak et al. It can show interactions among various factors which affect employees' productivity and job quality. Also various situations in nuclear power plant can be simulated and time-dependent risk can be recalculated with this model. But this model does not consider minimal cut set (MCS) dependency and uncertainty of risk. Another well-known methodology is Work Process Analysis Model (WPAM) developed by Davoudian. It considers MCS dependency by modifying conditional probability values using SLI methodology. But we found that the modified conditional probability values in WPAM are somewhat artificial and have no sound basis. WPAM tend to overestimate conditional probability of hardware failure, because it uses SLI methodology which is normally used in Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). WPAM also does not consider uncertainty of risk. In this study, we proposed methodology to incorporate safety culture into PSA quantitatively that can deal with MCS dependency and uncertainty of risk by applying the Common Uncertainty Source (CUS) model developed by Zhang. CUS is uncertainty source that is common to basic events, and this can be physical

A risk-averse optimization model for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pousinho, H.M.I.; Mendes, V.M.F.; Catalao, J.P.S.

2011-01-01

In this paper, a stochastic programming approach is proposed for trading wind energy in a market environment under uncertainty. Uncertainty in the energy market prices is the main cause of high volatility of profits achieved by power producers. The volatile and intermittent nature of wind energy represents another source of uncertainty. Hence, each uncertain parameter is modeled by scenarios, where each scenario represents a plausible realization of the uncertain parameters with an associated occurrence probability. Also, an appropriate risk measurement is considered. The proposed approach is applied on a realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal. Finally, conclusions are duly drawn. -- Highlights: → We model uncertainties on energy market prices and wind power production. → A hybrid intelligent approach generates price-wind power scenarios. → Risk aversion is also incorporated in the proposed stochastic programming approach. → A realistic case study, based on a wind farm in Portugal, is provided. → Our approach allows selecting the best solution according to the desired risk exposure level.

Uncertainty as Knowledge: Constraints on Policy Choices Provided by Analysis of Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Lewandowsky, S.; Risbey, J.; Smithson, M.; Newell, B. R.

2012-12-01

Uncertainty forms an integral part of climate science, and it is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. We argue that an analysis of uncertainty must consider existing knowledge as well as uncertainty, and the two must be evaluated with respect to the outcomes and risks associated with possible policy options. Although risk judgments are inherently subjective, an analysis of the role of uncertainty within the climate system yields two constraints that are robust to a broad range of assumptions. Those constraints are that (a) greater uncertainty about the climate system is necessarily associated with greater expected damages from warming, and (b) greater uncertainty translates into a greater risk of the failure of mitigation efforts. These ordinal constraints are unaffected by subjective or cultural risk-perception factors, they are independent of the discount rate, and they are independent of the magnitude of the estimate for climate sensitivity. The constraints mean that any appeal to uncertainty must imply a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

Corrosion characteristics of an aqueous self-cooled fusion blanket

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogaerts, W.F.; Embrechts, M.J.; Steiner, D.; Deutsch, L.; Jackson, D.

1986-01-01

A novel aqueous self-cooled blanket concept (ASCB) has recently been proposed. This blanket concept, as applied to a MARS-like tandem mirror reactor, consists of disks of spiraling tubes of Zircaloy-4 housed in a structural container of vanadium alloy (V-15 Ti-5 Cr). The Zircaloy tubes are cooled by a mixture of light and heavy water with 9 g of LiOH per 100 cm 3 of water dissolved in the coolant. A major issue for the feasibility of the integrated blanket coil concept is the chemical compatibility of the coolant and Zircaloy. Initial corrosion tests have been undertaken in order to resolve this question. Results clearly show that successful alloy heats can be prepared, for which corrosion problems will probably not be the limiting factor of the ASCB design concept. As is quite well known from fission engineering studies, small variations in the alloy compositions or in the metallurgical structure may, however, be able to cause significant alterations in the oxidation or corrosion rates. Further tests will be necessary to resolve the remaining uncertainties and to determine the behavior of successful alloy heats in the presence of trace impurities in order to address the sensitivity to localized corrosion phenomena such as pitting, stress corrosion cracking, and intergranular attack

Efficient climate policies under technology and climate uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Held, Hermann; Kriegler, Elmar; Lessmann, Kai; Edenhofer, Ottmar

2009-01-01

This article explores efficient climate policies in terms of investment streams into fossil and renewable energy technologies. The investment decisions maximise social welfare while observing a probabilistic guardrail for global mean temperature rise under uncertain technology and climate parameters. Such a guardrail constitutes a chance constraint, and the resulting optimisation problem is an instance of chance constrained programming, not stochastic programming as often employed. Our analysis of a model of economic growth and endogenous technological change, MIND, suggests that stringent mitigation strategies cannot guarantee a very high probability of limiting warming to 2 o C since preindustrial time under current uncertainty about climate sensitivity and climate response time scale. Achieving the 2 o C temperature target with a probability P* of 75% requires drastic carbon dioxide emission cuts. This holds true even though we have assumed an aggressive mitigation policy on other greenhouse gases from, e.g., the agricultural sector. The emission cuts are deeper than estimated from a deterministic calculation with climate sensitivity fixed at the P* quantile of its marginal probability distribution (3.6 o C). We show that earlier and cumulatively larger investments into the renewable sector are triggered by including uncertainty in the technology and climate response time scale parameters. This comes at an additional GWP loss of 0.3%, resulting in a total loss of 0.8% GWP for observing the chance constraint. We obtained those results with a new numerical scheme to implement constrained welfare optimisation under uncertainty as a chance constrained programming problem in standard optimisation software such as GAMS. The scheme is able to incorporate multivariate non-factorial probability measures such as given by the joint distribution of climate sensitivity and response time. We demonstrate the scheme for the case of a four-dimensional parameter space capturing

Efficiency of analytical and sampling-based uncertainty propagation in intensity-modulated proton therapy

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, N.; Hennig, P.; Wieser, H. P.; Bangert, M.

2017-07-01

The sensitivity of intensity-modulated proton therapy (IMPT) treatment plans to uncertainties can be quantified and mitigated with robust/min-max and stochastic/probabilistic treatment analysis and optimization techniques. Those methods usually rely on sparse random, importance, or worst-case sampling. Inevitably, this imposes a trade-off between computational speed and accuracy of the uncertainty propagation. Here, we investigate analytical probabilistic modeling (APM) as an alternative for uncertainty propagation and minimization in IMPT that does not rely on scenario sampling. APM propagates probability distributions over range and setup uncertainties via a Gaussian pencil-beam approximation into moments of the probability distributions over the resulting dose in closed form. It supports arbitrary correlation models and allows for efficient incorporation of fractionation effects regarding random and systematic errors. We evaluate the trade-off between run-time and accuracy of APM uncertainty computations on three patient datasets. Results are compared against reference computations facilitating importance and random sampling. Two approximation techniques to accelerate uncertainty propagation and minimization based on probabilistic treatment plan optimization are presented. Runtimes are measured on CPU and GPU platforms, dosimetric accuracy is quantified in comparison to a sampling-based benchmark (5000 random samples). APM accurately propagates range and setup uncertainties into dose uncertainties at competitive run-times (GPU ≤slant {5} min). The resulting standard deviation (expectation value) of dose show average global γ{3% / {3}~mm} pass rates between 94.2% and 99.9% (98.4% and 100.0%). All investigated importance sampling strategies provided less accuracy at higher run-times considering only a single fraction. Considering fractionation, APM uncertainty propagation and treatment plan optimization was proven to be possible at constant time complexity

The final cool down

CERN Multimedia

Thursday 29th May, the cool-down of the final sector (sector 4-5) of LHC has begun, one week after the start of the cool-down of sector 1-2. It will take five weeks for the sectors to be cooled from room temperature to 5 K and a further two weeks to complete the cool down to 1.9 K and the commissioning of cryogenic instrumentation, as well as to fine tune the cryogenic plants and the cooling loops of cryostats.Nearly a year and half has passed since sector 7-8 was cooled for the first time in January 2007. For Laurent Tavian, AT/CRG Group Leader, reaching the final phase of the cool down is an important milestone, confirming the basic design of the cryogenic system and the ability to operate complete sectors. “All the sectors have to operate at the same time otherwise we cannot inject the beam into the machine. The stability and reliability of the cryogenic system and its utilities are now very important. That will be the new challenge for the coming months,” he explains. The status of the cool down of ...

Calculating salt loads to Great Salt Lake and the associated uncertainties for water year 2013; updating a 48 year old standard

Science.gov (United States)

Shope, Christopher L.; Angeroth, Cory E.

2015-01-01

Effective management of surface waters requires a robust understanding of spatiotemporal constituent loadings from upstream sources and the uncertainty associated with these estimates. We compared the total dissolved solids loading into the Great Salt Lake (GSL) for water year 2013 with estimates of previously sampled periods in the early 1960s.We also provide updated results on GSL loading, quantitatively bounded by sampling uncertainties, which are useful for current and future management efforts. Our statistical loading results were more accurate than those from simple regression models. Our results indicate that TDS loading to the GSL in water year 2013 was 14.6 million metric tons with uncertainty ranging from 2.8 to 46.3 million metric tons, which varies greatly from previous regression estimates for water year 1964 of 2.7 million metric tons. Results also indicate that locations with increased sampling frequency are correlated with decreasing confidence intervals. Because time is incorporated into the LOADEST models, discrepancies are largely expected to be a function of temporally lagged salt storage delivery to the GSL associated with terrestrial and in-stream processes. By incorporating temporally variable estimates and statistically derived uncertainty of these estimates,we have provided quantifiable variability in the annual estimates of dissolved solids loading into the GSL. Further, our results support the need for increased monitoring of dissolved solids loading into saline lakes like the GSL by demonstrating the uncertainty associated with different levels of sampling frequency.

Alternative geometry for cylindrical natural draft cooling tower with higher cooling efficiency under crosswind condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodarzi, M.; Ramezanpour, R.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Alternative cross sections for natural draft cooling tower were proposed. • Numerical solution was applied to study thermal and hydraulic performances. • Thermal and hydraulic performances were assessed by comparative parameters. • Cooling tower with elliptical cross section had better thermal performance under crosswind. • It could successfully used at the regions with invariant wind direction. - Abstract: Cooling efficiency of a natural draft dry cooling tower may significantly decrease under crosswind condition. Therefore, many researchers attempted to improve the cooling efficiency under this condition by using structural or mechanical facilities. In this article, alternative shell geometry with elliptical cross section is proposed for this type of cooling tower instead of usual shell geometry with circular cross section. Thermal performance and cooling efficiency of the two types of cooling towers are numerically investigated. Numerical simulations show that cooling tower with elliptical cross section improves the cooling efficiency compared to the usual type with circular cross section under high-speed wind moving normal to the longitudinal diameter of the elliptical cooling tower

Semioptimal practicable algorithmic cooling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elias, Yuval; Mor, Tal; Weinstein, Yossi

2011-01-01

Algorithmic cooling (AC) of spins applies entropy manipulation algorithms in open spin systems in order to cool spins far beyond Shannon's entropy bound. Algorithmic cooling of nuclear spins was demonstrated experimentally and may contribute to nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Several cooling algorithms were suggested in recent years, including practicable algorithmic cooling (PAC) and exhaustive AC. Practicable algorithms have simple implementations, yet their level of cooling is far from optimal; exhaustive algorithms, on the other hand, cool much better, and some even reach (asymptotically) an optimal level of cooling, but they are not practicable. We introduce here semioptimal practicable AC (SOPAC), wherein a few cycles (typically two to six) are performed at each recursive level. Two classes of SOPAC algorithms are proposed and analyzed. Both attain cooling levels significantly better than PAC and are much more efficient than the exhaustive algorithms. These algorithms are shown to bridge the gap between PAC and exhaustive AC. In addition, we calculated the number of spins required by SOPAC in order to purify qubits for quantum computation. As few as 12 and 7 spins are required (in an ideal scenario) to yield a mildly pure spin (60% polarized) from initial polarizations of 1% and 10%, respectively. In the latter case, about five more spins are sufficient to produce a highly pure spin (99.99% polarized), which could be relevant for fault-tolerant quantum computing.