WorldWideScience

Sample records for cooling incorporating uncertainty

  1. Incorporating Forecast Uncertainty in Utility Control Center

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian

    2014-07-09

    Uncertainties in forecasting the output of intermittent resources such as wind and solar generation, as well as system loads are not adequately reflected in existing industry-grade tools used for transmission system management, generation commitment, dispatch and market operation. There are other sources of uncertainty such as uninstructed deviations of conventional generators from their dispatch set points, generator forced outages and failures to start up, load drops, losses of major transmission facilities and frequency variation. These uncertainties can cause deviations from the system balance, which sometimes require inefficient and costly last minute solutions in the near real-time timeframe. This Chapter considers sources of uncertainty and variability, overall system uncertainty model, a possible plan for transition from deterministic to probabilistic methods in planning and operations, and two examples of uncertainty-based fools for grid operations.This chapter is based on work conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)

  2. Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beale, Colin M; Lennon, Jack J

    2012-01-19

    Motivated by the need to solve ecological problems (climate change, habitat fragmentation and biological invasions), there has been increasing interest in species distribution models (SDMs). Predictions from these models inform conservation policy, invasive species management and disease-control measures. However, predictions are subject to uncertainty, the degree and source of which is often unrecognized. Here, we review the SDM literature in the context of uncertainty, focusing on three main classes of SDM: niche-based models, demographic models and process-based models. We identify sources of uncertainty for each class and discuss how uncertainty can be minimized or included in the modelling process to give realistic measures of confidence around predictions. Because this has typically not been performed, we conclude that uncertainty in SDMs has often been underestimated and a false precision assigned to predictions of geographical distribution. We identify areas where development of new statistical tools will improve predictions from distribution models, notably the development of hierarchical models that link different types of distribution model and their attendant uncertainties across spatial scales. Finally, we discuss the need to develop more defensible methods for assessing predictive performance, quantifying model goodness-of-fit and for assessing the significance of model covariates.

  3. Incorporating parametric uncertainty into population viability analysis models

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Runge, Michael C.; Larson, Michael A.

    2011-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameter estimates from sampling variation or expert judgment can introduce substantial uncertainty into ecological predictions based on those estimates. However, in standard population viability analyses, one of the most widely used tools for managing plant, fish and wildlife populations, parametric uncertainty is often ignored in or discarded from model projections. We present a method for explicitly incorporating this source of uncertainty into population models to fully account for risk in management and decision contexts. Our method involves a two-step simulation process where parametric uncertainty is incorporated into the replication loop of the model and temporal variance is incorporated into the loop for time steps in the model. Using the piping plover, a federally threatened shorebird in the USA and Canada, as an example, we compare abundance projections and extinction probabilities from simulations that exclude and include parametric uncertainty. Although final abundance was very low for all sets of simulations, estimated extinction risk was much greater for the simulation that incorporated parametric uncertainty in the replication loop. Decisions about species conservation (e.g., listing, delisting, and jeopardy) might differ greatly depending on the treatment of parametric uncertainty in population models.

  4. Incorporating uncertainty in RADTRAN 6.0 input files.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dennis, Matthew L.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John (Alion Science and Technology)

    2010-02-01

    Uncertainty may be introduced into RADTRAN analyses by distributing input parameters. The MELCOR Uncertainty Engine (Gauntt and Erickson, 2004) has been adapted for use in RADTRAN to determine the parameter shape and minimum and maximum of the distribution, to sample on the distribution, and to create an appropriate RADTRAN batch file. Coupling input parameters is not possible in this initial application. It is recommended that the analyst be very familiar with RADTRAN and able to edit or create a RADTRAN input file using a text editor before implementing the RADTRAN Uncertainty Analysis Module. Installation of the MELCOR Uncertainty Engine is required for incorporation of uncertainty into RADTRAN. Gauntt and Erickson (2004) provides installation instructions as well as a description and user guide for the uncertainty engine.

  5. Incorporation of systematic uncertainties in statistical decision rules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wichers, V.A.

    1994-02-01

    The influence of systematic uncertainties on statistical hypothesis testing is an underexposed subject. Systematic uncertainties cannot be incorporated in hypothesis tests, but they deteriorate the performance of these tests. A wrong treatment of systematic uncertainties in verification applications in safeguards leads to false assessment of the strength of the safeguards measure, and thus undermines the safeguards system. The effects of systematic uncertainties on decision errors in hypothesis testing are analyzed quantitatively for an example from the safeguards practice. (LEU-HEU verification of UF 6 enrichment in centrifuge enrichment plants). It is found that the only proper way to tackle systematic uncertainties is reduction to sufficiently low levels; criteria for these are proposed. Although conclusions were obtained from study of a single practical application, it is believed that they hold generally: for all sources of systematic uncertainties, all statistical decision rules, and all applications. (orig./HP)

  6. Incorporation of various uncertainties in dependent failure-probability estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samanta, P.K.; Mitra, S.P.

    1982-01-01

    This paper describes an approach that allows the incorporation of various types of uncertainties in the estimation of dependent failure (common mode failure) probability. The types of uncertainties considered are attributable to data, modeling and coupling. The method developed is applied to a class of dependent failures, i.e., multiple human failures during testing, maintenance and calibration. Estimation of these failures is critical as they have been shown to be significant contributors to core melt probability in pressurized water reactors

  7. Optimum sizing of wind-battery systems incorporating resource uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, Anindita; Kedare, Shireesh B.; Bandyopadhyay, Santanu

    2010-01-01

    The inherent uncertainty of the wind is a major impediment for successful implementation of wind based power generation technology. A methodology has been proposed in this paper to incorporate wind speed uncertainty in sizing wind-battery system for isolated applications. The uncertainty associated with the wind speed is incorporated using chance constraint programming approach. For a pre-specified reliability requirement, a deterministic equivalent energy balance equation may be derived from the chance constraint that allows time series simulation of the entire system. This results in a generation of the entire set of feasible design options, satisfying different system level constraints, on a battery capacity vs. generator rating diagram, also known as the design space. The proposed methodology highlights the trade-offs between the wind turbine rating, rotor diameter and the battery size for a given reliability of power supply. The optimum configuration is chosen on the basis of the minimum cost of energy (US$/kWh). It is shown with the help of illustrative examples that the proposed methodology is generic and flexible to incorporate alternate sub-component models. (author)

  8. Economic performance optimization of an absorption cooling system under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gebreslassie, Berhane H.; Guillen-Gosalbez, Gonzalo; Jimenez, Laureano; Boer, Dieter

    2009-01-01

    Many of the strategies devised so far to address the optimization of energy systems are deterministic approaches that rely on estimated data. However, in real world applications there are many sources of uncertainty that introduce variability into the decision-making problem. Within this general context, we propose a novel approach to address the design of absorption cooling systems under uncertainty in the energy cost. As opposed to other approaches that optimize the expected performance of the system as a single objective, in our method the design task is formulated as a stochastic bi-criteria non-linear optimization problem that simultaneously accounts for the minimization of the expected total cost and the financial risk associated with the investment. The latter criterion is measured by the downside risk, which avoids the need to define binary variables thus improving the computational performance of the model. The capabilities of the proposed modeling framework and solution strategy are illustrated in a case study problem that addresses the design of a typical absorption cooling system. Numerical results demonstrate that the method presented allows to manage the risk level effectively by varying the area of the heat exchangers of the absorption cycle. Specifically, our strategy allows identifying the optimal values of the operating and design variables of the cycle that make it less sensitive to fluctuations in the energy price, thus improving its robustness in the face of uncertainty.

  9. Incorporating model parameter uncertainty into inverse treatment planning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lian Jun; Xing Lei

    2004-01-01

    Radiobiological treatment planning depends not only on the accuracy of the models describing the dose-response relation of different tumors and normal tissues but also on the accuracy of tissue specific radiobiological parameters in these models. Whereas the general formalism remains the same, different sets of model parameters lead to different solutions and thus critically determine the final plan. Here we describe an inverse planning formalism with inclusion of model parameter uncertainties. This is made possible by using a statistical analysis-based frameset developed by our group. In this formalism, the uncertainties of model parameters, such as the parameter a that describes tissue-specific effect in the equivalent uniform dose (EUD) model, are expressed by probability density function and are included in the dose optimization process. We found that the final solution strongly depends on distribution functions of the model parameters. Considering that currently available models for computing biological effects of radiation are simplistic, and the clinical data used to derive the models are sparse and of questionable quality, the proposed technique provides us with an effective tool to minimize the effect caused by the uncertainties in a statistical sense. With the incorporation of the uncertainties, the technique has potential for us to maximally utilize the available radiobiology knowledge for better IMRT treatment

  10. A risk assessment methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cho, Hyo-Nam; Choi, Hyun-Ho; Kim, Yoon-Bae

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes a new methodology for incorporating uncertainties using fuzzy concepts into conventional risk assessment frameworks. This paper also introduces new forms of fuzzy membership curves, designed to consider the uncertainty range that represents the degree of uncertainties involved in both probabilistic parameter estimates and subjective judgments, since it is often difficult or even impossible to precisely estimate the occurrence rate of an event in terms of one single crisp probability. It is to be noted that simple linguistic variables such as 'High/Low' and 'Good/Bad' have the limitations in quantifying the various risks inherent in construction projects, but only represent subjective mental cognition adequately. Therefore, in this paper, the statements that include some quantification with giving specific value or scale, such as 'Close to any value' or 'Higher/Lower than analyzed value', are used in order to get over the limitations. It may be stated that the proposed methodology will be very useful for the systematic and rational risk assessment of construction projects

  11. Making Invasion models useful for decision makers; incorporating uncertainty, knowledge gaps, and decision-making preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denys Yemshanov; Frank H Koch; Mark Ducey

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in model-based forecasts of ecological invasions. In this chapter, we explore how the perceptions of that uncertainty can be incorporated into the pest risk assessment process. Uncertainty changes a decision maker’s perceptions of risk; therefore, the direct incorporation of uncertainty may provide a more appropriate depiction of risk. Our...

  12. Incorporating outcome uncertainty and prior outcome beliefs in stated preferences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lundhede, Thomas; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Hanley, Nick

    2015-01-01

    Stated preference studies tell respondents that policies create environmental changes with varying levels of uncertainty. However, respondents may include their own a priori assessments of uncertainty when making choices among policy options. Using a choice experiment eliciting respondents......’ preferences for conservation policies under climate change, we find that higher outcome uncertainty reduces utility. When accounting for endogeneity, we find that prior beliefs play a significant role in this cost of uncertainty. Thus, merely stating “objective” levels of outcome uncertainty...

  13. Evaluating Prognostics Performance for Algorithms Incorporating Uncertainty Estimates

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Uncertainty Representation and Management (URM) are an integral part of the prognostic system development.1As capabilities of prediction algorithms evolve, research...

  14. Gambling in Latin: incorporating uncertainty in risk management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gratt, L.B.; Levin, L. (IWG Corporation, San Diego, CA (United States))

    1994-08-01

    Risk assessment uses assumptions based on differing degrees of conservatism. This complicates the understanding of the uncertainty in the final risk estimate. Uncertainties arise from each component of the risk assessment process: source terms, atmospheric transport, exposure, and dose response. Probabilistic modeling using Monte Carlo and Latin Square sampling techniques (reference to Gambling in Latin) allows for an improved approach to risk assessment and management. 16 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  15. How incorporating more data reduces uncertainty in recovery predictions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campozana, F.P.; Lake, L.W.; Sepehrnoori, K. [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

    1997-08-01

    From the discovery to the abandonment of a petroleum reservoir, there are many decisions that involve economic risks because of uncertainty in the production forecast. This uncertainty may be quantified by performing stochastic reservoir modeling (SRM); however, it is not practical to apply SRM every time the model is updated to account for new data. This paper suggests a novel procedure to estimate reservoir uncertainty (and its reduction) as a function of the amount and type of data used in the reservoir modeling. Two types of data are analyzed: conditioning data and well-test data. However, the same procedure can be applied to any other data type. Three performance parameters are suggested to quantify uncertainty. SRM is performed for the following typical stages: discovery, primary production, secondary production, and infill drilling. From those results, a set of curves is generated that can be used to estimate (1) the uncertainty for any other situation and (2) the uncertainty reduction caused by the introduction of new wells (with and without well-test data) into the description.

  16. Gauge theories under incorporation of a generalized uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kober, Martin

    2010-01-01

    There is considered an extension of gauge theories according to the assumption of a generalized uncertainty principle which implies a minimal length scale. A modification of the usual uncertainty principle implies an extended shape of matter field equations like the Dirac equation. If there is postulated invariance of such a generalized field equation under local gauge transformations, the usual covariant derivative containing the gauge potential has to be replaced by a generalized covariant derivative. This leads to a generalized interaction between the matter field and the gauge field as well as to an additional self-interaction of the gauge field. Since the existence of a minimal length scale seems to be a necessary assumption of any consistent quantum theory of gravity, the gauge principle is a constitutive ingredient of the standard model, and even gravity can be described as gauge theory of local translations or Lorentz transformations, the presented extension of gauge theories appears as a very important consideration.

  17. Thoughts on Incorporating HPRF in a Linear Cooling Channel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallardo, Juan C.; Zisman, Michael S.

    2009-01-01

    We discuss a possible implementation of high-pressure gas-filled RF (HPRF) cavities in a linear cooling channel for muons and some of the technical issues that must be dealt with. The approach we describe is a hybrid approach that uses high-pressure hydrogen gas to avoid cavity breakdown, along with discrete LiH absorbers to provide the majority of the energy loss. Initial simulations show that the channel performs as well as the original vacuum RF channel while potentially avoiding the degradation in RF gradient associated with the strong magnetic field in the cooling channel.

  18. Incorporating forecast uncertainties into EENS for wind turbine studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toh, G.K.; Gooi, H.B. [School of EEE, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2011-02-15

    The rapid increase in wind power generation around the world has stimulated the development of applicable technologies to model the uncertainties of wind power resulting from the stochastic nature of wind and fluctuations of demand for integration of wind turbine generators (WTGs). In this paper the load and wind power forecast errors are integrated into the expected energy not served (EENS) formulation through determination of probabilities using the normal distribution approach. The effects of forecast errors and wind energy penetration in the power system are traversed. The impact of wind energy penetration on system reliability, total cost for energy and reserve procurement is then studied for a conventional power system. The results show a degradation of system reliability with significant wind energy penetration in the generation system. This work provides a useful insight into system reliability and economics for the independent system operator (ISO) to deploy energy/reserve providers when WTGs are integrated into the existing power system. (author)

  19. Incorporating the Technology Roadmap Uncertainties into the Project Risk Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonnema, B.E.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes two methods, Technology Roadmapping and Project Risk Assessment, which were used to identify and manage the technical risks relating to the treatment of sodium bearing waste at the Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory. The waste treatment technology under consideration was Direct Vitrification. The primary objective of the Technology Roadmap is to identify technical data uncertainties for the technologies involved and to prioritize the testing or development studies to fill the data gaps. Similarly, project management's objective for a multi-million dollar construction project includes managing all the key risks in accordance to DOE O 413.3 - ''Program and Project Management for the Acquisition of Capital Assets.'' In the early stages, the Project Risk Assessment is based upon a qualitative analysis for each risk's probability and consequence. In order to clearly prioritize the work to resolve the technical issues identified in the Technology Roadmap, the issues must be cross- referenced to the project's Risk Assessment. This will enable the project to get the best value for the cost to mitigate the risks

  20. Incorporating the effects of socioeconomic uncertainty into priority setting for conservation investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McBride, Marissa F; Wilson, Kerrie A; Bode, Michael; Possingham, Hugh P

    2007-12-01

    Uncertainty in the implementation and outcomes of conservation actions that is not accounted for leaves conservation plans vulnerable to potential changes in future conditions. We used a decision-theoretic approach to investigate the effects of two types of investment uncertainty on the optimal allocation of global conservation resources for land acquisition in the Mediterranean Basin. We considered uncertainty about (1) whether investment will continue and (2) whether the acquired biodiversity assets are secure, which we termed transaction uncertainty and performance uncertainty, respectively. We also developed and tested the robustness of different rules of thumb for guiding the allocation of conservation resources when these sources of uncertainty exist. In the presence of uncertainty in future investment ability (transaction uncertainty), the optimal strategy was opportunistic, meaning the investment priority should be to act where uncertainty is highest while investment remains possible. When there was a probability that investments would fail (performance uncertainty), the optimal solution became a complex trade-off between the immediate biodiversity benefits of acting in a region and the perceived longevity of the investment. In general, regions were prioritized for investment when they had the greatest performance certainty, even if an alternative region was highly threatened or had higher biodiversity value. The improved performance of rules of thumb when accounting for uncertainty highlights the importance of explicitly incorporating sources of investment uncertainty and evaluating potential conservation investments in the context of their likely long-term success.

  1. A Generalized Kruskal-Wallis Test Incorporating Group Uncertainty with Application to Genetic Association Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Acar, Elif F.; Sun, Lei

    2012-01-01

    Motivated by genetic association studies of SNPs with genotype uncertainty, we propose a generalization of the Kruskal-Wallis test that incorporates group uncertainty when comparing k samples. The extended test statistic is based on probability-weighted rank-sums and follows an asymptotic chi-square distribution with k-1 degrees of freedom under the null hypothesis. Simulation studies confirm the validity and robustness of the proposed test in finite samples. Application to a genome-wide asso...

  2. A method to incorporate uncertainty in the classification of remote sensing images

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Luísa M. S.; Fonte, Cidália C.; Júlio, Eduardo N. B. S.; Caetano, Mario

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate if the incorporation of the uncertainty associated with the classification of surface elements into the classification of landscape units (LUs) increases the results accuracy. To this end, a hybrid classification method is developed, including uncertainty information in the classification of very high spatial resolution multi-spectral satellite images, to obtain a map of LUs. The developed classification methodology includes the following...

  3. Reader reaction on the generalized Kruskal-Wallis test for genetic association studies incorporating group uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Baolin; Guan, Weihua

    2015-06-01

    Acar and Sun (2013, Biometrics 69, 427-435) presented a generalized Kruskal-Wallis (GKW) test for genetic association studies that incorporated the genotype uncertainty and showed its robust and competitive performance compared to existing methods. We present another interesting way to derive the GKW test via a rank linear model. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  4. Reader Reaction On the generalized Kruskal-Wallis test for genetic association studies incorporating group uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Wu, Baolin; Guan, Weihua

    2014-01-01

    Acar and Sun (2013, Biometrics, 69, 427-435) presented a generalized Kruskal-Wallis (GKW) test for genetic association studies that incorporated the genotype uncertainty and showed its robust and competitive performance compared to existing methods. We present another interesting way to derive the GKW test via a rank linear model.

  5. Uncertainty analysis of infinite homogeneous lead and sodium cooled fast reactors at beginning of life

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanhanen, R.

    2015-01-01

    The objective of the present work is to estimate breeding ratio, radiation damage rate and minor actinide transmutation rate of infinite homogeneous lead and sodium cooled fast reactors. Uncertainty analysis is performed taking into account uncertainty in nuclear data and composition of the reactors. We use the recently released ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data library and restrict the work to the beginning of reactor life. We work under multigroup approximation. The Bondarenko method is used to acquire effective cross sections for the homogeneous reactor. Modeling error and numerical error are estimated. The adjoint sensitivity analysis is performed to calculate generalized adjoint fluxes for the responses. The generalized adjoint fluxes are used to calculate first order sensitivities of the responses to model parameters. The acquired sensitivities are used to propagate uncertainties in the input data to find out uncertainties in the responses. We show that the uncertainty in model parameters is the dominant source of uncertainty, followed by modeling error, input data precision and numerical error. The uncertainty due to composition of the reactor is low. We identify main sources of uncertainty and note that the low-fidelity evaluation of 16 O is problematic due to lack of correlation between total and elastic reactions

  6. Uncertainty analysis of infinite homogeneous lead and sodium cooled fast reactors at beginning of life

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vanhanen, R., E-mail: risto.vanhanen@aalto.fi

    2015-03-15

    The objective of the present work is to estimate breeding ratio, radiation damage rate and minor actinide transmutation rate of infinite homogeneous lead and sodium cooled fast reactors. Uncertainty analysis is performed taking into account uncertainty in nuclear data and composition of the reactors. We use the recently released ENDF/B-VII.1 nuclear data library and restrict the work to the beginning of reactor life. We work under multigroup approximation. The Bondarenko method is used to acquire effective cross sections for the homogeneous reactor. Modeling error and numerical error are estimated. The adjoint sensitivity analysis is performed to calculate generalized adjoint fluxes for the responses. The generalized adjoint fluxes are used to calculate first order sensitivities of the responses to model parameters. The acquired sensitivities are used to propagate uncertainties in the input data to find out uncertainties in the responses. We show that the uncertainty in model parameters is the dominant source of uncertainty, followed by modeling error, input data precision and numerical error. The uncertainty due to composition of the reactor is low. We identify main sources of uncertainty and note that the low-fidelity evaluation of {sup 16}O is problematic due to lack of correlation between total and elastic reactions.

  7. New method to incorporate Type B uncertainty into least-squares procedures in radionuclide metrology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Jubong; Lee, K.B.; Lee, Jong-Man; Park, Tae Soon; Oh, J.S.; Oh, Pil-Jei

    2016-01-01

    We discuss a new method to incorporate Type B uncertainty into least-squares procedures. The new method is based on an extension of the likelihood function from which a conventional least-squares function is derived. The extended likelihood function is the product of the original likelihood function with additional PDFs (Probability Density Functions) that characterize the Type B uncertainties. The PDFs are considered to describe one's incomplete knowledge on correction factors being called nuisance parameters. We use the extended likelihood function to make point and interval estimations of parameters in the basically same way as the least-squares function used in the conventional least-squares method is derived. Since the nuisance parameters are not of interest and should be prevented from appearing in the final result, we eliminate such nuisance parameters by using the profile likelihood. As an example, we present a case study for a linear regression analysis with a common component of Type B uncertainty. In this example we compare the analysis results obtained from using our procedure with those from conventional methods. - Highlights: • A new method proposed to incorporate Type B uncertainty into least-squares method. • The method constructed from the likelihood function and PDFs of Type B uncertainty. • A case study performed to compare results from the new and the conventional method. • Fitted parameters are consistent but with larger uncertainties in the new method.

  8. Incorporating uncertainty analysis into life cycle estimates of greenhouse gas emissions from biomass production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, David R.; Willis, Henry H.; Curtright, Aimee E.; Samaras, Constantine; Skone, Timothy

    2011-01-01

    Before further investments are made in utilizing biomass as a source of renewable energy, both policy makers and the energy industry need estimates of the net greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions expected from substituting biobased fuels for fossil fuels. Such GHG reductions depend greatly on how the biomass is cultivated, transported, processed, and converted into fuel or electricity. Any policy aiming to reduce GHGs with biomass-based energy must account for uncertainties in emissions at each stage of production, or else it risks yielding marginal reductions, if any, while potentially imposing great costs. This paper provides a framework for incorporating uncertainty analysis specifically into estimates of the life cycle GHG emissions from the production of biomass. We outline the sources of uncertainty, discuss the implications of uncertainty and variability on the limits of life cycle assessment (LCA) models, and provide a guide for practitioners to best practices in modeling these uncertainties. The suite of techniques described herein can be used to improve the understanding and the representation of the uncertainties associated with emissions estimates, thus enabling improved decision making with respect to the use of biomass for energy and fuel production. -- Highlights: → We describe key model, scenario and data uncertainties in LCAs of biobased fuels. → System boundaries and allocation choices should be consistent with study goals. → Scenarios should be designed around policy levers that can be controlled. → We describe a new way to analyze the importance of covariance between inputs.

  9. Adaptive polynomial chaos techniques for uncertainty quantification of a gas cooled fast reactor transient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perko, Z.; Gilli, L.; Lathouwers, D.; Kloosterman, J. L.

    2013-01-01

    Uncertainty quantification plays an increasingly important role in the nuclear community, especially with the rise of Best Estimate Plus Uncertainty methodologies. Sensitivity analysis, surrogate models, Monte Carlo sampling and several other techniques can be used to propagate input uncertainties. In recent years however polynomial chaos expansion has become a popular alternative providing high accuracy at affordable computational cost. This paper presents such polynomial chaos (PC) methods using adaptive sparse grids and adaptive basis set construction, together with an application to a Gas Cooled Fast Reactor transient. Comparison is made between a new sparse grid algorithm and the traditionally used technique proposed by Gerstner. An adaptive basis construction method is also introduced and is proved to be advantageous both from an accuracy and a computational point of view. As a demonstration the uncertainty quantification of a 50% loss of flow transient in the GFR2400 Gas Cooled Fast Reactor design was performed using the CATHARE code system. The results are compared to direct Monte Carlo sampling and show the superior convergence and high accuracy of the polynomial chaos expansion. Since PC techniques are easy to implement, they can offer an attractive alternative to traditional techniques for the uncertainty quantification of large scale problems. (authors)

  10. A generalized Kruskal-Wallis test incorporating group uncertainty with application to genetic association studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acar, Elif F; Sun, Lei

    2013-06-01

    Motivated by genetic association studies of SNPs with genotype uncertainty, we propose a generalization of the Kruskal-Wallis test that incorporates group uncertainty when comparing k samples. The extended test statistic is based on probability-weighted rank-sums and follows an asymptotic chi-square distribution with k - 1 degrees of freedom under the null hypothesis. Simulation studies confirm the validity and robustness of the proposed test in finite samples. Application to a genome-wide association study of type 1 diabetic complications further demonstrates the utilities of this generalized Kruskal-Wallis test for studies with group uncertainty. The method has been implemented as an open-resource R program, GKW. © 2013, The International Biometric Society.

  11. Incorporating Wind Power Forecast Uncertainties Into Stochastic Unit Commitment Using Neural Network-Based Prediction Intervals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quan, Hao; Srinivasan, Dipti; Khosravi, Abbas

    2015-09-01

    Penetration of renewable energy resources, such as wind and solar power, into power systems significantly increases the uncertainties on system operation, stability, and reliability in smart grids. In this paper, the nonparametric neural network-based prediction intervals (PIs) are implemented for forecast uncertainty quantification. Instead of a single level PI, wind power forecast uncertainties are represented in a list of PIs. These PIs are then decomposed into quantiles of wind power. A new scenario generation method is proposed to handle wind power forecast uncertainties. For each hour, an empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) is fitted to these quantile points. The Monte Carlo simulation method is used to generate scenarios from the ECDF. Then the wind power scenarios are incorporated into a stochastic security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) model. The heuristic genetic algorithm is utilized to solve the stochastic SCUC problem. Five deterministic and four stochastic case studies incorporated with interval forecasts of wind power are implemented. The results of these cases are presented and discussed together. Generation costs, and the scheduled and real-time economic dispatch reserves of different unit commitment strategies are compared. The experimental results show that the stochastic model is more robust than deterministic ones and, thus, decreases the risk in system operations of smart grids.

  12. Value change in oil and gas production: V. Incorporation of uncertainties and determination of relative importance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lerche, I.; Noeth, S.

    2002-01-01

    The influence of two fundamentally different types of uncertainty on the value of oil field production are investigated here. First considered is the uncertainty caused by the fact that the expected value estimate is not one of the possible outcomes. To correctly allow for the risk attendant upon using the expected value as a measure of worth, even with statistically sharp parameters, one needs to incorporate the uncertainty of the expected value. Using a simple example we show how such incorporation allows for a clear determination of the relative risk of projects that may have the same expected value but very different risks. We also show how each project can be risked on its own using the expected value and variance. This uncertainty type is due to the possible pathways for different outcomes even when parameters categorizing the system are taken to be known. Second considered is the risk due to the fact that parameters in oil field estimates are just estimates and, as such, have their own intrinsic errors that influence the possible outcomes and make them less certain. This sort of risk depends upon the uncertainty of each parameter, and also the type of distribution the parameters are taken to be drawn from. In addition, not all uncertainties in parameters values are of equal importance in influencing an outcome probability. We show how can determine the relative importance for the parameters and so determine where to place effort to resolve the dominant contributions to risk if it is possible to do so. Considerations of whether to acquire new information, and also whether to undertake further studies under such an uncertain environment, are used as vehicles to address these concerns of risk due to uncertainty. In general, an oil field development project has to contend with all the above types of risk and uncertainty. It is therefore of importance to have quantitative measures of risk so that one can compare and contrast the various effects, and so that

  13. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses of a Pebble Bed HTGR Loss of Cooling Event

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerhard Strydom

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Very High Temperature Reactor Methods Development group at the Idaho National Laboratory identified the need for a defensible and systematic uncertainty and sensitivity approach in 2009. This paper summarizes the results of an uncertainty and sensitivity quantification investigation performed with the SUSA code, utilizing the International Atomic Energy Agency CRP 5 Pebble Bed Modular Reactor benchmark and the INL code suite PEBBED-THERMIX. Eight model input parameters were selected for inclusion in this study, and after the input parameters variations and probability density functions were specified, a total of 800 steady state and depressurized loss of forced cooling (DLOFC transient PEBBED-THERMIX calculations were performed. The six data sets were statistically analyzed to determine the 5% and 95% DLOFC peak fuel temperature tolerance intervals with 95% confidence levels. It was found that the uncertainties in the decay heat and graphite thermal conductivities were the most significant contributors to the propagated DLOFC peak fuel temperature uncertainty. No significant differences were observed between the results of Simple Random Sampling (SRS or Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS data sets, and use of uniform or normal input parameter distributions also did not lead to any significant differences between these data sets.

  14. Incorporating uncertainties into risk assessment with an application to the exploratory studies facilities at Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fathauer, P.M.

    1995-08-01

    A methodology that incorporates variability and reducible sources of uncertainty into the probabilistic and consequence components of risk was developed. The method was applied to the north tunnel of the Exploratory Studies Facility at Yucca Mountain in Nevada. In this assessment, variability and reducible sources of uncertainty were characterized and propagated through the risk assessment models using a Monte Carlo based software package. The results were then manipulated into risk curves at the 5% and 95% confidence levels for both the variability and overall uncertainty analyses, thus distinguishing between variability and reducible sources of uncertainty. In the Yucca Mountain application, the designation of the north tunnel as an item important to public safety, as defined by 10 CFR 60, was determined. Specifically, the annual frequency of a rock fall breaching a waste package causing an off-site dose of 500 mrem (5x10 -3 Sv) was calculated. The annual frequency, taking variability into account, ranged from 1.9x10 -9 per year at the 5% confidence level to 2.5x10 -9 per year at the 95% confidence level. The frequency range after including all uncertainty was 9.5x10 -10 to 1.8x10 -8 per year. The maximum observable frequency, at the 100% confidence level, was 4.9x10 -8 per year. This is below the 10 -6 per year frequency criteria of 10 CFR 60. Therefore, based on this work, the north tunnel does not fall under the items important to public safety designation for the event studied

  15. Nuclear data uncertainty analysis for the generation IV gas-cooled fast reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pelloni, S.; Mikityuk, K.

    2012-01-01

    For the European 2400 MW Gas-cooled Fast Reactor (GoFastR), this paper summarizes a priori uncertainties, i.e. without any integral experiment assessment, of the main neutronic parameters which were obtained on the basis of the deterministic code system ERANOS (Edition 2.2-N). JEFF-3.1 cross-sections were used in conjunction with the newest ENDF/B-VII.0 based covariance library (COMMARA-2.0) resulting from a recent cooperation of the Brookhaven and Los Alamos National Laboratories within the Advanced Fuel Cycle Initiative. The basis for the analysis is the original GoFastR concept with carbide fuel pins and silicon-carbide ceramic cladding, which was developed and proposed in the first quarter of 2009 by the 'French alternative energies and Atomic Energy Commission', CEA. The main conclusions from the current study are that nuclear data uncertainties of neutronic parameters may still be too large for this Generation IV reactor, especially concerning the multiplication factor, despite the fact that the new covariance library is quite complete; These uncertainties, in relative terms, do not show the a priori expected increase with bum-up as a result of the minor actinide and fission product build-up. Indeed, they are found almost independent of the fuel depletion, since the uncertainty associated with 238 U inelastic scattering results largely dominating. This finding clearly supports the activities of Subgroup 33 of the Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Cooperation (WPEC), i.e. Methods and issues for the combined use of integral experiments and covariance data, attempting to reduce the present unbiased uncertainties on nuclear data through adjustments based on available experimental data. (authors)

  16. Incorporating wind generation forecast uncertainty into power system operation, dispatch, and unit commitment procedures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Etingov, Pavel V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Ma, Jiam; Subbarao, Krishnappa [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2010-07-01

    An approach to evaluate the uncertainties of the balancing capacity, ramping capability, and ramp duration requirements is proposed. The approach includes three steps: forecast data acquisition, statistical analysis of retrospective information, and prediction of grid balancing requirements for a specified time horizon and a given confidence level. An assessment of the capacity and ramping requirements is performed using a specially developed probabilistic algorithm based on histogram analysis, incorporating sources of uncertainty - both continuous (wind and load forecast errors) and discrete (forced generator outages and start-up failures). A new method called the ''flying-brick'' technique is developed to evaluate the look-ahead required generation performance envelope for the worst case scenario within a user-specified confidence level. A self-validation process is used to validate the accuracy of the confidence intervals. To demonstrate the validity of the developed uncertainty assessment methods and its impact on grid operation, a framework for integrating the proposed methods with an EMS system is developed. Demonstration through integration with an EMS system illustrates the applicability of the proposed methodology and the developed tool for actual grid operation and paves the road for integration with EMS systems from other vendors. (orig.)

  17. Atherosclerotic plaque component segmentation in combined carotid MRI and CTA data incorporating class label uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Engelen, Arna; Niessen, Wiro J.; Klein, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Atherosclerotic plaque composition can indicate plaque vulnerability. We segment atherosclerotic plaque components from the carotid artery on a combination of in vivo MRI and CT-angiography (CTA) data using supervised voxelwise classification. In contrast to previous studies the ground truth...... for training is directly obtained from 3D registration with histology for fibrous and lipid-rich necrotic tissue, and with [Formula: see text]CT for calcification. This registration does, however, not provide accurate voxelwise correspondence. We therefore evaluate three approaches that incorporate uncertainty......), II) samples are weighted by the local contour distance of the lumen and outer wall between histology and in vivo data, and III) 10% of each class is rejected by Gaussian outlier rejection. Classification was evaluated on the relative volumes (% of tissue type in the vessel wall) for calcified...

  18. Incorporating organ movements in inverse planning: assessing dose uncertainties by Bayesian inference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unkelbach, J; Oelfke, U

    2005-01-01

    We present a method to calculate dose uncertainties due to inter-fraction organ movements in fractionated radiotherapy, i.e. in addition to the expectation value of the dose distribution a variance distribution is calculated. To calculate the expectation value of the dose distribution in the presence of organ movements, one estimates a probability distribution of possible patient geometries. The respective variance of the expected dose distribution arises for two reasons: first, the patient is irradiated with a finite number of fractions only and second, the probability distribution of patient geometries has to be estimated from a small number of images and is therefore not exactly known. To quantify the total dose variance, we propose a method that is based on the principle of Bayesian inference. The method is of particular interest when organ motion is incorporated in inverse IMRT planning by means of inverse planning performed on a probability distribution of patient geometries. In order to make this a robust approach, it turns out that the dose variance should be considered (and minimized) in the optimization process. As an application of the presented concept of Bayesian inference, we compare three approaches to inverse planning based on probability distributions that account for an increasing degree of uncertainty. The Bayes theorem further provides a concept to interpolate between patient specific data and population-based knowledge on organ motion which is relevant since the number of CT images of a patient is typically small

  19. Using structured decision making with landowners to address private forest management and parcelization: balancing multiple objectives and incorporating uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paige F. B. Ferguson; Michael J. Conroy; John F. Chamblee; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman

    2015-01-01

    Parcelization and forest fragmentation are of concern for ecological, economic, and social reasons. Efforts to keep large, private forests intact may be supported by a decision-making process that incorporates landowners’ objectives and uncertainty. We used structured decision making (SDM) with owners of large, private forests in Macon County, North Carolina....

  20. Supporting Sustainable Markets Through Life Cycle Assessment: Evaluating emerging technologies, incorporating uncertainty and the consumer perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merugula, Laura

    As civilization's collective knowledge grows, we are met with the realization that human-induced physical and biological transformations influenced by exogenous psychosocial and economic factors affect virtually every ecosystem on the planet. Despite improvements in energy generation and efficiencies, demand of material goods and energy services increases with no sign of a slowing pace. Sustainable development requires a multi-prong approach that involves reshaping demand, consumer education, sustainability-oriented policy, and supply chain management that does not serve the expansionist mentality. Thus, decision support tools are needed that inform developers, consumers, and policy-makers for short-term and long-term planning. These tools should incorporate uncertainty through quantitative methods as well as qualitatively informing the nature of the model as imperfect but necessary and adequate. A case study is presented of the manufacture and deployment of utility-scale wind turbines evaluated for a proposed change in blade manufacturing. It provides the first life cycle assessment (LCA) evaluating impact of carbon nanofibers, an emerging material, proposed for integration to wind power generation systems as blade reinforcement. Few LCAs of nanoproducts are available in scientific literature due to research and development (R&D) for applications that continues to outpace R&D for environmental, health, and safety (EHS) and life cycle impacts. LCAs of emerging technologies are crucial for informing developers of potential impacts, especially where market growth is swift and dissipative. A second case study is presented that evaluates consumer choice between disposable and reusable beverage cups. While there are a few studies that attempt to make the comparison using LCA, none adequately address uncertainty, nor are they representative for the typical American consumer. By disaggregating U.S. power generation into 26 subregional grid production mixes and evaluating

  1. Risk, probability and uncertainty in the calculations of gas cooled reactor of PBMR type. Part 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Serbanescu, Dan

    2004-01-01

    The paper presents the main conclusions of the insights to a cooled gas reactor from the perspective of the following notions: probability, uncertainty, entropy and risk. Some results of the on-going comparison between the insights obtained from three models and approaches are presented. The approaches consider the Pebble Bed Module Reactor (PBMR) NPP as a thermodynamic installation and as hierarchical system with or without considering the information exchange between its various levels. The existing model was a basis for a PRA going on in phases for PBMR. In the first part of this paper results from phase II of this PRA were presented. Further activities going on in the preparation for phase II PRA and for the development of a specific application of using PRA during the design phases for PBMR are undergoing with some preliminary results and conclusions. However, for the purposes of this paper and the comparative review of various models in the part two one presents the risk model (model B) based on the assumption and ideas laid down at the basis of the future inter-comparison of this model with other plant models. The assumptions concern: the uncertainties for the quantification of frequencies; list of initiated events; interfaces with the deterministic calculation; integrated evaluation of all the plant states; risk of the release of radionuclide; the balance between the number and function of the active systems and the passive systems; systems interdependencies in PBMR PRA; use of PRA for the evaluation of the impact of various design changes on plant risk. The model B allows basically evaluating the level of risk of the plant by calculating it as a result of acceptance challenge to the plant. By using this model the departure from a reference state is given by the variation in the risk metrics adopted for the study. The paper present also the synergetic model (model C). The evaluation of risk in the model C is considering also the information process. The

  2. A novel personal cooling system (PCS) incorporated with phase change materials (PCMs) and ventilation fans: An investigation on its cooling efficiency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yehu; Wei, Fanru; Lai, Dandan; Shi, Wen; Wang, Faming; Gao, Chuansi; Song, Guowen

    2015-08-01

    Personal cooling systems (PCS) have been developed to mitigate the impact of severe heat stress for humans working in hot environments. It is still a great challenge to develop PCSs that are portable, inexpensive, and effective. We studied the performance of a new hybrid PCS incorporating both ventilation fans and phase change materials (PCMs). The cooling efficiency of the newly developed PCS was investigated on a sweating manikin in two hot conditions: hot humid (HH, 34°C, 75% RH) and hot dry (HD, 34°C, 28% RH). Four test scenarios were selected: fans off with no PCMs (i.e., Fan-off, the CONTROL), fans on with no PCMs (i.e., Fan-on), fans off with fully solidified PCMs (i.e., PCM+Fan-off), and fans on with fully solidified PCMs (i.e., PCM+Fan-on). It was found that the addition of PCMs provided a 54∼78min cooling in HH condition. In contrast, the PCMs only offered a 19-39min cooling in HD condition. In both conditions, the ventilation fans greatly enhanced the evaporative heat loss compared with Fan-off. The hybrid PCS (i.e., PCM+Fan-on) provided a continuous cooling effect during the three-hour test and the average cooling rate for the whole body was around 111 and 315W in HH and HD conditions, respectively. Overall, the new hybrid PCS may be an effective means of ameliorating symptoms of heat stress in both hot-humid and hot-dry environments. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Wind Energy Management System EMS Integration Project: Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-01-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind and solar power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation), and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind/solar forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. To improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter

  4. Incorporating uncertainty regarding applicability of evidence from meta-analyses into clinical decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kriston, Levente; Meister, Ramona

    2014-03-01

    Judging applicability (relevance) of meta-analytical findings to particular clinical decision-making situations remains challenging. We aimed to describe an evidence synthesis method that accounts for possible uncertainty regarding applicability of the evidence. We conceptualized uncertainty regarding applicability of the meta-analytical estimates to a decision-making situation as the result of uncertainty regarding applicability of the findings of the trials that were included in the meta-analysis. This trial-level applicability uncertainty can be directly assessed by the decision maker and allows for the definition of trial inclusion probabilities, which can be used to perform a probabilistic meta-analysis with unequal probability resampling of trials (adaptive meta-analysis). A case study with several fictitious decision-making scenarios was performed to demonstrate the method in practice. We present options to elicit trial inclusion probabilities and perform the calculations. The result of an adaptive meta-analysis is a frequency distribution of the estimated parameters from traditional meta-analysis that provides individually tailored information according to the specific needs and uncertainty of the decision maker. The proposed method offers a direct and formalized combination of research evidence with individual clinical expertise and may aid clinicians in specific decision-making situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Nuclear reactor core support incorporating also a cooling fluid flow system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pennell, W.E.

    1975-01-01

    A description is given of a core bearing plate with several modular intake units having cooling fluid intake openings on their lower extensions, and on their upper ends located above the bearing plate, at least one fuel assembly which is thus in communication with the area under the bearing plate through the modular intake unit. The means for introducing the cooling fluid into the reactor vessel area are located under the bearing plate. The lower ends of the modular intake have ribs arranged essentially on a plane and join together with openings provided between the seals, in such a manner that the ribs form a barrier. The cooling fluid intake openings are located above this barrier, so that the cooling fluid is compelled to cross it before penetrating into the modular intake units [fr

  6. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2013-04-01

    The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

  7. Incorporation of phenomenological uncertainties in probabilistic safety analysis - application to LMFBR core disruptive accident energetics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Najafi, B; Theofanous, T G; Rumble, E T; Atefi, B

    1984-08-01

    This report describes a method for quantifying frequency and consequence uncertainty distribution associated with core disruptive accidents (CDAs). The method was developed to estimate the frequency and magnitude of energy impacting the reactor vessel head of the Clinch River Breeder Plant (CRBRP) given the occurrence of hypothetical CDAs. The methodology is illustrated using the CRBR example.

  8. Upper limit for Poisson variable incorporating systematic uncertainties by Bayesian approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Yongsheng

    2007-01-01

    To calculate the upper limit for the Poisson observable at given confidence level with inclusion of systematic uncertainties in background expectation and signal efficiency, formulations have been established along the line of Bayesian approach. A FORTRAN program, BPULE, has been developed to implement the upper limit calculation

  9. Incorporation of Satellite Data and Uncertainty in a Nationwide Groundwater Recharge Model in New Zealand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogier Westerhoff

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available A nationwide model of groundwater recharge for New Zealand (NGRM, as described in this paper, demonstrated the benefits of satellite data and global models to improve the spatial definition of recharge and the estimation of recharge uncertainty. NGRM was inspired by the global-scale WaterGAP model but with the key development of rainfall recharge calculation on scales relevant to national- and catchment-scale studies (i.e., a 1 km × 1 km cell size and a monthly timestep in the period 2000–2014 provided by satellite data (i.e., MODIS-derived evapotranspiration, AET and vegetation in combination with national datasets of rainfall, elevation, soil and geology. The resulting nationwide model calculates groundwater recharge estimates, including their uncertainty, consistent across the country, which makes the model unique compared to all other New Zealand estimates targeted towards groundwater recharge. At the national scale, NGRM estimated an average recharge of 2500 m 3 /s, or 298 mm/year, with a model uncertainty of 17%. Those results were similar to the WaterGAP model, but the improved input data resulted in better spatial characteristics of recharge estimates. Multiple uncertainty analyses led to these main conclusions: the NGRM model could give valuable initial estimates in data-sparse areas, since it compared well to most ground-observed lysimeter data and local recharge models; and the nationwide input data of rainfall and geology caused the largest uncertainty in the model equation, which revealed that the satellite data could improve spatial characteristics without significantly increasing the uncertainty. Clearly the increasing volume and availability of large-scale satellite data is creating more opportunities for the application of national-scale models at the catchment, and smaller, scales. This should result in improved utility of these models including provision of initial estimates in data-sparse areas. Topics for future

  10. Incorporating the Uncertainties of Nodal-Plane Orientation in the Seismo-Lineament Analysis Method (SLAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, V.; Sverdrup, K. A.

    2013-05-01

    The process of delineating a seismo-lineament has evolved since the first description of the Seismo-Lineament Analysis Method (SLAM) by Cronin et al. (2008, Env & Eng Geol 14(3) 199-219). SLAM is a reconnaissance tool to find the trace of the fault that produced an shallow-focus earthquake by projecting the corresponding nodal planes (NP) upward to their intersections with the ground surface, as represented by a DEM or topographic map. A seismo-lineament is formed by the intersection of the uncertainty volume associated with a given NP and the ground surface. The ground-surface trace of the fault that produced the earthquake is likely to be within one of the two seismo-lineaments associated with the two NPs derived from the earthquake's focal mechanism solution. When no uncertainty estimate has been reported for the NP orientation, the uncertainty volume associated with a given NP is bounded by parallel planes that are [1] tangent to the ellipsoidal uncertainty volume around the focus and [2] parallel to the NP. If the ground surface is planar, the resulting seismo-lineament is bounded by parallel lines. When an uncertainty is reported for the NP orientation, the seismo-lineament resembles a bow tie, with the epicenter located adjacent to or within the "knot." Some published lists of focal mechanisms include only one NP with associated uncertainties. The NP orientation uncertainties in strike azimuth (+/- gamma), dip angle (+/- epsilon) and rake that are output from an FPFIT analysis (Reasenberg and Oppenheimer, 1985, USGS OFR 85-739) are taken to be the same for both NPs (Oppenheimer, 2013, pers com). The boundaries of the NP uncertainty volume are each comprised by planes that are tangent to the focal uncertainty ellipsoid. One boundary, whose nearest horizontal distance from the epicenter is greater than or equal to that of the other boundary, is formed by the set of all planes with strike azimuths equal to the reported NP strike azimuth +/- gamma, and dip angle

  11. Uncertainties

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    To reflect this uncertainty in the climate scenarios, the use of AOGCMs that explicitly simulate the carbon cycle and chemistry of all the substances are needed. The Hadley Centre has developed a version of the climate model that allows the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle and its feedback into climate, to be ...

  12. Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, T.A. da

    1988-01-01

    The comparison between the uncertainty method recommended by International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the and the International Weight and Measure Commitee (CIPM) are showed, for the calibration of clinical dosimeters in the secondary standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL). (C.G.C.) [pt

  13. Wind Energy Management System Integration Project Incorporating Wind Generation and Load Forecast Uncertainties into Power Grid Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Huang, Zhenyu; Etingov, Pavel V.; Ma, Jian; Guttromson, Ross T.; Subbarao, Krishnappa; Chakrabarti, Bhujanga B.

    2010-09-01

    The power system balancing process, which includes the scheduling, real time dispatch (load following) and regulation processes, is traditionally based on deterministic models. Since the conventional generation needs time to be committed and dispatched to a desired megawatt level, the scheduling and load following processes use load and wind power production forecasts to achieve future balance between the conventional generation and energy storage on the one side, and system load, intermittent resources (such as wind and solar generation) and scheduled interchange on the other side. Although in real life the forecasting procedures imply some uncertainty around the load and wind forecasts (caused by forecast errors), only their mean values are actually used in the generation dispatch and commitment procedures. Since the actual load and intermittent generation can deviate from their forecasts, it becomes increasingly unclear (especially, with the increasing penetration of renewable resources) whether the system would be actually able to meet the conventional generation requirements within the look-ahead horizon, what the additional balancing efforts would be needed as we get closer to the real time, and what additional costs would be incurred by those needs. In order to improve the system control performance characteristics, maintain system reliability, and minimize expenses related to the system balancing functions, it becomes necessary to incorporate the predicted uncertainty ranges into the scheduling, load following, and, in some extent, into the regulation processes. It is also important to address the uncertainty problem comprehensively, by including all sources of uncertainty (load, intermittent generation, generators’ forced outages, etc.) into consideration. All aspects of uncertainty such as the imbalance size (which is the same as capacity needed to mitigate the imbalance) and generation ramping requirement must be taken into account. The latter unique

  14. A review of reactor physics uncertainties and validation requirements for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baxter, A.M.; Lane, R.K.; Hettergott, E.; Lefler, W.

    1991-01-01

    The important, safety-related, physics parameters for the low-enriched Modular High-Temperature gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) such as control rod worth, shutdown margins, temperature coefficients, and reactivity worths, are considered, and estimates are presented of the uncertainties in the calculated values of these parameters. The basis for the uncertainty estimate in several of the important calculated parameters is reviewed, including the available experimental data used in obtaining these estimates. Based on this review, the additional experimental data needed to complete the validation of the methods used to calculate these parameters is presented. The role of benchmark calculations in validating MHTGR reactor physics data is also considered. (author). 10 refs, 5 figs, 3 tabs

  15. Robust framework for PET image reconstruction incorporating system and measurement uncertainties.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huafeng Liu

    Full Text Available In Positron Emission Tomography (PET, an optimal estimate of the radioactivity concentration is obtained from the measured emission data under certain criteria. So far, all the well-known statistical reconstruction algorithms require exactly known system probability matrix a priori, and the quality of such system model largely determines the quality of the reconstructed images. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for PET image reconstruction for the real world case where the PET system model is subject to uncertainties. The method counts PET reconstruction as a regularization problem and the image estimation is achieved by means of an uncertainty weighted least squares framework. The performance of our work is evaluated with the Shepp-Logan simulated and real phantom data, which demonstrates significant improvements in image quality over the least squares reconstruction efforts.

  16. Incorporation of cooling-induced crystallisation into a 2-dimensional axisymmetric conduit heat flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heptinstall, D. A.; Neuberg, J. W.; Bouvet de Maisonneuve, C.; Collinson, A.; Taisne, B.; Morgan, D. J.

    2015-12-01

    Heat flow models can bring new insights into the thermal and rheological evolution of volcanic systems. We shall investigate the thermal processes and timescales in a crystallizing, static magma column, with a heat flow model of Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. The latent heat of crystallization is initially computed with MELTS, as a function of pressure and temperature for an andesitic melt (SHV groundmass starting composition). Three fractional crystallization simulations are performed; two with initial pressures of 34MPa (runs 1 & 2) and one of 25MPa (run 3). Decompression rate was varied between 0.1MPa/°C (runs 1 & 3) and 0.2MPa/°C (run 2). Natural and experimental matrix glass compositions are accurately reproduced by all MELTS runs. The cumulative latent heat released for runs 1, 2 and 3 differs by less than 9% (8.69e5 J/kg*K, 9.32e5 J/kg*K, and 9.49e5 J/kg*K respectively). The 2D axisymmetric conductive cooling simulations consider a 30m-diameter conduit that extends from the surface to a depth of 1500m (34MPa). The temporal evolution of temperature is closely tracked at depths of 10m, 750m and 1400m in the center of the conduit, at the conduit walls, and 20m from the walls into the host rock. Following initial cooling by 7-15oC at 10m depth inside the conduit, the magma temperature rebounds through latent heat release by 32-35oC over 85-123 days to a maximum temperature of 1002-1005oC. At 10 m depth, it takes 4.1-9.2 years for the magma column to cool over 108-130oC and crystallize to 75wt%, at which point it cannot be easily remobilized. It takes 11-31.5 years to reach the same crystallinity at 750-1400m depth. We find a wide range in cooling timescales, particularly at depths of 750m or greater, attributed to the initial run pressure and dominant latent heat producing crystallizing phases (Quartz), where run 1 cools fastest and run 3 cools slowest. Surface cooling by comparison has the strongest influence on the upper tens of meters in all

  17. Incorporation of cooling-induced crystallization into a 2-dimensional axisymmetric conduit heat flow model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heptinstall, David; Bouvet de Maisonneuve, Caroline; Neuberg, Jurgen; Taisne, Benoit; Collinson, Amy

    2016-04-01

    Heat flow models can bring new insights into the thermal and rheological evolution of volcanic 3 systems. We shall investigate the thermal processes and timescales in a crystallizing, static 4 magma column, with a heat flow model of Soufriere Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat. The latent heat of crystallization is initially computed with MELTS, as a function of pressure and temperature for an andesitic melt (SHV groundmass starting composition). Three fractional crystallization simulations are performed; two with initial pressures of 34MPa (runs 1 & 2) and one of 25MPa (run 3). Decompression rate was varied between 0.1MPa/° C (runs 1 & 3) and 0.2MPa/° C (run 2). Natural and experimental matrix glass compositions are accurately reproduced by all MELTS runs. The cumulative latent heat released for runs 1, 2 and 3 differs by less than 9% (8.69E5 J/kg*K, 9.32E5 J/kg*K, and 9.49E5 J/kg*K respectively). The 2D axisymmetric conductive cooling simulations consider a 30m-diameter conduit that extends from the surface to a depth of 1500m (34MPa). The temporal evolution of temperature is closely tracked at depths of 10m, 750m and 1400m in the centre of the conduit, at the conduit walls, and 20m from the walls into the host rock. Following initial cooling by 7-15oC at 10m depth inside the conduit, the magma temperature rebounds through latent heat release by 32-35oC over 85-123 days to a maximum temperature of 1002-1005oC. At 10m depth, it takes 4.1-9.2 years for the magma column to cool by 108-131oC and crystallize to 75wt%, at which point it cannot be easily remobilized. It takes 11-31.5 years to reach the same crystallinity at 750-1400m depth. We find a wide range in cooling timescales, particularly at depths of 750m or greater, attributed to the initial run pressure and the dominant latent heat producing crystallizing phase, Albite-rich Plagioclase Feldspar. Run 1 is shown to cool fastest and run 3 cool the slowest, with surface emissivity having the strongest cooling

  18. Using expert knowledge to incorporate uncertainty in cause-of-death assignments for modeling of cause-specific mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Norton, Andrew S.; Storm, Daniel J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.; Heisy, Dennis M.

    2018-01-01

    Implicit and explicit use of expert knowledge to inform ecological analyses is becoming increasingly common because it often represents the sole source of information in many circumstances. Thus, there is a need to develop statistical methods that explicitly incorporate expert knowledge, and can successfully leverage this information while properly accounting for associated uncertainty during analysis. Studies of cause-specific mortality provide an example of implicit use of expert knowledge when causes-of-death are uncertain and assigned based on the observer's knowledge of the most likely cause. To explicitly incorporate this use of expert knowledge and the associated uncertainty, we developed a statistical model for estimating cause-specific mortality using a data augmentation approach within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Specifically, for each mortality event, we elicited the observer's belief of cause-of-death by having them specify the probability that the death was due to each potential cause. These probabilities were then used as prior predictive values within our framework. This hierarchical framework permitted a simple and rigorous estimation method that was easily modified to include covariate effects and regularizing terms. Although applied to survival analysis, this method can be extended to any event-time analysis with multiple event types, for which there is uncertainty regarding the true outcome. We conducted simulations to determine how our framework compared to traditional approaches that use expert knowledge implicitly and assume that cause-of-death is specified accurately. Simulation results supported the inclusion of observer uncertainty in cause-of-death assignment in modeling of cause-specific mortality to improve model performance and inference. Finally, we applied the statistical model we developed and a traditional method to cause-specific survival data for white-tailed deer, and compared results. We demonstrate that model selection

  19. Incorporating reliability evaluation into the uncertainty analysis of electricity market price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, Chongqing; Bai, Lichao; Xia, Qing; Jiang, Jianjian; Zhao, Jing

    2005-01-01

    A novel model and algorithm for analyzing the uncertainties in electricity market is proposed in this paper. In this model, bidding decision is formulated as a probabilistic model that takes into account the decision-maker's willingness to bid, risk preferences, the fluctuation of fuel-price, etc. At the same time, generating unit's uncertain output model is considered by its forced outage rate (FOR). Based on the model, the uncertainty of market price is then analyzed. Taking the analytical results into consideration, not only the reliability of the power system can be conventionally analyzed, but also the possible distribution of market prices can be easily obtained. The probability distribution of market prices can be further used to calculate the expected output and the sales income of generating unit in the market. Based on these results, it is also possible to evaluate the risk involved by generating units. A simple system with four generating units is used to illustrate the proposed algorithm. The proposed algorithm and the modeling technique are expected to helpful to the market participants in making their economic decisions

  20. Incorporating covariance estimation uncertainty in spatial sampling design for prediction with trans-Gaussian random fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gunter eSpöck

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, Spock and Pilz [38], demonstratedthat the spatial sampling design problem forthe Bayesian linear kriging predictor can betransformed to an equivalent experimentaldesign problem for a linear regression modelwith stochastic regression coefficients anduncorrelated errors. The stochastic regressioncoefficients derive from the polar spectralapproximation of the residual process. Thus,standard optimal convex experimental designtheory can be used to calculate optimal spatialsampling designs. The design functionals ̈considered in Spock and Pilz [38] did nottake into account the fact that kriging isactually a plug-in predictor which uses theestimated covariance function. The resultingoptimal designs were close to space-fillingconfigurations, because the design criteriondid not consider the uncertainty of thecovariance function.In this paper we also assume that thecovariance function is estimated, e.g., byrestricted maximum likelihood (REML. Wethen develop a design criterion that fully takesaccount of the covariance uncertainty. Theresulting designs are less regular and space-filling compared to those ignoring covarianceuncertainty. The new designs, however, alsorequire some closely spaced samples in orderto improve the estimate of the covariancefunction. We also relax the assumption ofGaussian observations and assume that thedata is transformed to Gaussianity by meansof the Box-Cox transformation. The resultingprediction method is known as trans-Gaussiankriging. We apply the Smith and Zhu [37]approach to this kriging method and show thatresulting optimal designs also depend on theavailable data. We illustrate our results witha data set of monthly rainfall measurementsfrom Upper Austria.

  1. Incorporating organ movements in IMRT treatment planning for prostate cancer: Minimizing uncertainties in the inverse planning process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unkelbach, Jan; Oelfke, Uwe

    2005-01-01

    We investigate an off-line strategy to incorporate inter fraction organ movements in IMRT treatment planning. Nowadays, imaging modalities located in the treatment room allow for several CT scans of a patient during the course of treatment. These multiple CT scans can be used to estimate a probability distribution of possible patient geometries. This probability distribution can subsequently be used to calculate the expectation value of the delivered dose distribution. In order to incorporate organ movements into the treatment planning process, it was suggested that inverse planning could be based on that probability distribution of patient geometries instead of a single snapshot. However, it was shown that a straightforward optimization of the expectation value of the dose may be insufficient since the expected dose distribution is related to several uncertainties: first, this probability distribution has to be estimated from only a few images. And second, the distribution is only sparsely sampled over the treatment course due to a finite number of fractions. In order to obtain a robust treatment plan these uncertainties should be considered and minimized in the inverse planning process. In the current paper, we calculate a 3D variance distribution in addition to the expectation value of the dose distribution which are simultaniously optimized. The variance is used as a surrogate to quantify the associated risks of a treatment plan. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated for clinical data of prostate patients. Different scenarios of dose expectation values and corresponding variances are discussed

  2. Effectiveness of External Reactor Vessel Cooling (ERVC) strategy for APR1400 and issues of phenomenological uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, S.J.; Kim, H.T.

    2007-01-01

    The APR1400(Advanced Power Reactor 1400) is an evolutionary advanced light water reactor with rated thermal power of 4000 MWt. For APR1400, External Reactor Vessel Cooling (ERVC) is adopted as a primary severe accident management strategy for in-vessel retention (IVR) of corium. The ERVC is a method of IVR by submerging the reactor vessel exterior. At the early stage of the APR1400 design, only ex-vessel cooling, cooling of the core melt outside the vessel after vessel is breached, is considered based on the EPRI Utility Requirement Document for Evolutionary LWR. However, based on the progress in implementation of Severe Accident Management Guidance (SAMG) for operating plants, as well as the research findings related to ERVC, ERVC strategy is adopted as a part of key severe accident management strategies. To improve its success, the strategy is reviewed and we implemented necessary design arrangement to increase its usefulness in managing the severe accident. In this paper, we examine the evolution of ERVC concept and its implementation in APR1400. Then, we review possible approach, including Risk-Oriented Accident Analysis Methodology (ROAAM), to evaluate the effectiveness of the strategy. (authors)

  3. Two approaches to incorporate clinical data uncertainty into multiple criteria decision analysis for benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Shihua; Zhang, Lanju; Yang, Bo

    2014-07-01

    The Problem formulation, Objectives, Alternatives, Consequences, Trade-offs, Uncertainties, Risk attitude, and Linked decisions (PrOACT-URL) framework and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) have been recommended by the European Medicines Agency for structured benefit-risk assessment of medicinal products undergoing regulatory review. The objective of this article was to provide solutions to incorporate the uncertainty from clinical data into the MCDA model when evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. Two statistical approaches, the δ-method approach and the Monte-Carlo approach, were proposed to construct the confidence interval of the overall benefit-risk score from the MCDA model as well as other probabilistic measures for comparing the benefit-risk profiles between treatment options. Both approaches can incorporate the correlation structure between clinical parameters (criteria) in the MCDA model and are straightforward to implement. The two proposed approaches were applied to a case study to evaluate the benefit-risk profile of an add-on therapy for rheumatoid arthritis (drug X) relative to placebo. It demonstrated a straightforward way to quantify the impact of the uncertainty from clinical data to the benefit-risk assessment and enabled statistical inference on evaluating the overall benefit-risk profiles among different treatment options. The δ-method approach provides a closed form to quantify the variability of the overall benefit-risk score in the MCDA model, whereas the Monte-Carlo approach is more computationally intensive but can yield its true sampling distribution for statistical inference. The obtained confidence intervals and other probabilistic measures from the two approaches enhance the benefit-risk decision making of medicinal products. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Atlas-based segmentation technique incorporating inter-observer delineation uncertainty for whole breast

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, L R; Pogson, E M; Metcalfe, P; Holloway, L; Dowling, J A

    2017-01-01

    Accurate, efficient auto-segmentation methods are essential for the clinical efficacy of adaptive radiotherapy delivered with highly conformal techniques. Current atlas based auto-segmentation techniques are adequate in this respect, however fail to account for inter-observer variation. An atlas-based segmentation method that incorporates inter-observer variation is proposed. This method is validated for a whole breast radiotherapy cohort containing 28 CT datasets with CTVs delineated by eight observers. To optimise atlas accuracy, the cohort was divided into categories by mean body mass index and laterality, with atlas’ generated for each in a leave-one-out approach. Observer CTVs were merged and thresholded to generate an auto-segmentation model representing both inter-observer and inter-patient differences. For each category, the atlas was registered to the left-out dataset to enable propagation of the auto-segmentation from atlas space. Auto-segmentation time was recorded. The segmentation was compared to the gold-standard contour using the dice similarity coefficient (DSC) and mean absolute surface distance (MASD). Comparison with the smallest and largest CTV was also made. This atlas-based auto-segmentation method incorporating inter-observer variation was shown to be efficient (<4min) and accurate for whole breast radiotherapy, with good agreement (DSC>0.7, MASD <9.3mm) between the auto-segmented contours and CTV volumes. (paper)

  5. Semi-active control for vibration mitigation of structural systems incorporating uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miah, Mohammad S; Chatzi, Eleni N; Weber, Felix

    2015-01-01

    This study introduces a novel semi-active control scheme, where the linear-quadratic regulator (LQR) is combined with an unscented Kalman filter (UKF) observer, for the real-time mitigation of structural vibration. Due to a number of factors, such as environmental effects and ageing processes, the controlled system may be characterized by uncertainties. The UKF, which comprises a nonlinear observer, is employed herein for devising an adaptive semi-active control scheme capable of tackling such a challenge. This is achieved through the real-time realization of joint state and parameter estimation during the structural control process via the proposed LQR-UKF approach. The behavior of the introduced scheme is exemplified through two numerical applications. The efficacy of the devised methodology is firstly compared against the standard LQR-KF approach in a linear benchmark application where the system model is assumed known a priori, and secondly, the method is validated on a joint state and parameter estimation problem where the system model is assumed uncertain, formulated as nonlinear, and updated in real-time. (paper)

  6. Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

    2017-07-01

    Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

  7. Optimal Scanning Bandwidth Strategy Incorporating Uncertainty about Adversary’s Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Garnaev

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the problem of designing a spectrum scanning strategy to detect an intelligent Invader who wants to utilize spectrum undetected for his/her unapproved purposes. To deal with this problem we model the situation as two games, between a Scanner and an Invader, and solve them sequentially. The first game is formulated to design the optimal (in maxmin sense scanning algorithm, while the second one allows one to find the optimal values of the parameters for the algorithm depending on the parameters of the network. These games provide solutions for two dilemmas that the rivals face. The Invader’s dilemma consists of the following: the more bandwidth the Invader attempts to use leads to a larger payoff if he is not detected, but at the same time also increases the probability of being detected and thus fined. Similarly, the Scanner faces a dilemma: the wider the bandwidth scanned, the higher the probability of detecting the Invader, but at the expense of increasing the cost of building the scanning system. The equilibrium strategies are found explicitly and reveal interesting properties. In particular, we have found a discontinuous dependence of the equilibrium strategies on the network parameters, fine and the type of the Invader’s award. This discontinuity of the fine means that the network provider has to take into account a human/social factor since some threshold values of fine could be very sensible for the Invader, while in other situations simply increasing the fine has a minimal deterrence impact. Also we show how incomplete information about the Invader’s technical characteristics and reward (e.g. motivated by using different type of application, say, video-streaming or downloading files can be incorporated into the scanning strategy to increase its efficiency.

  8. Development of a decision support tool for seasonal water supply management incorporating system uncertainties and operational constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Asefa, T.

    2017-12-01

    A real-time decision support tool (DST) for water supply system would consider system uncertainties, e.g., uncertain streamflow and demand, as well as operational constraints and infrastructure outage (e.g., pump station shutdown, an offline reservoir due to maintenance). Such DST is often used by water managers for resource allocation and delivery for customers. Although most seasonal DST used by water managers recognize those system uncertainties and operational constraints, most use only historical information or assume deterministic outlook of water supply systems. This study presents a seasonal DST that incorporates rainfall/streamflow uncertainties, seasonal demand outlook and system operational constraints. Large scale climate-information is captured through a rainfall simulator driven by a Bayesian non-homogeneous Markov Chain Monte Carlo model that allows non-stationary transition probabilities contingent on Nino 3.4 index. An ad-hoc seasonal demand forecasting model considers weather conditions explicitly and socio-economic factors implicitly. Latin Hypercube sampling is employed to effectively sample probability density functions of flow and demand. Seasonal system operation is modelled as a mixed-integer optimization problem that aims at minimizing operational costs. It embeds the flexibility of modifying operational rules at different components, e.g., surface water treatment plants, desalination facilities, and groundwater pumping stations. The proposed framework is illustrated at a wholesale water supplier in Southeastern United States, Tampa Bay Water. The use of the tool is demonstrated in proving operational guidance in a typical drawdown and refill cycle of a regional reservoir. The DST provided: 1) probabilistic outlook of reservoir storage and chance of a successful refill by the end of rainy season; 2) operational expectations for large infrastructures (e.g., high service pumps and booster stations) throughout the season. Other potential use

  9. Incorporation of velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and particle surface friction into kinetic theory for modeling granular flow cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duan, Yifei; Feng, Zhi-Gang

    2017-12-01

    Kinetic theory (KT) has been successfully used to model rapid granular flows in which particle interactions are frictionless and near elastic. However, it fails when particle interactions become frictional and inelastic. For example, the KT is not able to accurately predict the free cooling process of a vibrated granular medium that consists of inelastic frictional particles under microgravity. The main reason that the classical KT fails to model these flows is due to its inability to account for the particle surface friction and its inelastic behavior, which are the two most important factors that need be considered in modeling collisional granular flows. In this study, we have modified the KT model that is able to incorporate these two factors. The inelasticity of a particle is considered by establishing a velocity-dependent expression for the restitution coefficient based on many experimental studies found in the literature, and the particle friction effect is included by using a tangential restitution coefficient that is related to the particle friction coefficient. Theoretical predictions of the free cooling process by the classical KT and the improved KT are compared with the experimental results from a study conducted on an airplane undergoing parabolic flights without the influence of gravity [Y. Grasselli, G. Bossis, and G. Goutallier, Europhys. Lett. 86, 60007 (2009)10.1209/0295-5075/86/60007]. Our results show that both the velocity-dependent restitution coefficient and the particle surface friction are important in predicting the free cooling process of granular flows; the modified KT model that integrates these two factors is able to improve the simulation results and leads to better agreement with the experimental results.

  10. Nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty for the Canadian supercritical water-cooled reactor II: Full core analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Langton, S.E.; Buijs, A.; Pencer, J.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling sensitivity. • H-2, Pu-239, and Th-232 make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. • Isotopes of Zr make large contributions to SCWR modelling uncertainty. - Abstract: Uncertainties in nuclear data are a fundamental source of uncertainty in reactor physics calculations. To determine their contribution to uncertainties in calculated reactor physics parameters, a nuclear data sensitivity and uncertainty study is performed on the Canadian supercritical water reactor (SCWR) concept. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to the neutron multiplication factor k eff are 6.31 mk for the SCWR at the beginning of cycle (BOC) and 6.99 mk at the end of cycle (EOC). Both of these uncertainties have a statistical uncertainty of 0.02 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to Coolant Void Reactivity (CVR) are 1.0 mk and 0.9 mk for BOC and EOC, respectively, both with statistical uncertainties of 0.1 mk. The nuclear data uncertainty contributions to other reactivity parameters range from as low as 3% of to as high as ten times the values of the reactivity coefficients. The largest contributors to the uncertainties in the reactor physics parameters are Pu-239, Th-232, H-2, and isotopes of zirconium

  11. Sensisivity and Uncertainty analysis for the Tritium Breeding Ratio of a DEMO Fusion reactor with a Helium cooled pebble bed blanket

    OpenAIRE

    Nunnenmann, Elena; Fischer, Ulrich; Stieglitz, Robert

    2016-01-01

    An uncertainty analysis was performed for the tritium breeding ratio (TBR) of a fusion power plant of the European DEMO type using the MCSEN patch to the MCNP Monte Carlo code. The breeding blanket was of the type Helium Cooled Pebble Bed (HCPB), currently under development in the European Power Plant Physics and Technology (PPPT) programme for a fusion power demonstration reactor (DEMO). A suitable 3D model of the DEMO reactor with HCPB blanket modules, as routinely used for blanket design c...

  12. Mathematical modelling and optimization of a large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system that incorporates unit changeover and time-of-use electricity price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Qiannan; Luo, Xianglong; Zhang, Bingjian; Chen, Ying

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • We propose a novel superstructure for the design and optimization of LSCCHP. • A multi-objective multi-period MINLP model is formulated. • The unit start-up cost and time-of-use electricity prices are involved. • Unit size discretization strategy is proposed to linearize the original MINLP model. • A case study is elaborated to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. - Abstract: Building energy systems, particularly large public ones, are major energy consumers and pollutant emission contributors. In this study, a superstructure of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system is constructed. The off-design unit, economic cost, and CO_2 emission models are also formulated. Moreover, a multi-objective mixed integer nonlinear programming model is formulated for the simultaneous system synthesis, technology selection, unit sizing, and operation optimization of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system. Time-of-use electricity price and unit changeover cost are incorporated into the problem model. The economic objective is to minimize the total annual cost, which comprises the operation and investment costs of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system. The environmental objective is to minimize the annual global CO_2 emission of large-scale combined cooling, heat, and power system. The augmented ε–constraint method is applied to achieve the Pareto frontier of the design configuration, thereby reflecting the set of solutions that represent optimal trade-offs between the economic and environmental objectives. Sensitivity analysis is conducted to reflect the impact of natural gas price on the combined cooling, heat, and power system. The synthesis and design of combined cooling, heat, and power system for an airport in China is studied to test the proposed synthesis and design methodology. The Pareto curve of multi-objective optimization shows that the total annual cost varies from 102.53 to 94.59 M

  13. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis for the tritium breeding ratio of a DEMO fusion reactor with a helium cooled pebble bed blanket

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nunnenmann Elena

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An uncertainty analysis was performed for the tritium breeding ratio (TBR of a fusion power plant of the European DEMO type using the MCSEN patch to the MCNP Monte Carlo code. The breeding blanket was of the type Helium Cooled Pebble Bed (HCPB, currently under development in the European Power Plant Physics and Technology (PPPT programme for a fusion power demonstration reactor (DEMO. A suitable 3D model of the DEMO reactor with HCPB blanket modules, as routinely used for blanket design calculations, was employed. The nuclear cross-section data were taken from the JEFF-3.2 data library. For the uncertainty analysis, the isotopes H-1, Li-6, Li-7, Be-9, O-16, Si-28, Si-29, Si-30, Cr-52, Fe-54, Fe-56, Ni-58, W-182, W-183, W-184 and W-186 were considered. The covariance data were taken from JEFF-3.2 where available. Otherwise a combination of FENDL-2.1 for Li-7, EFF-3 for Be-9 and JENDL-3.2 for O-16 were compared with data from TENDL-2014. Another comparison was performed with covariance data from JEFF-3.3T1. The analyses show an overall uncertainty of ± 3.2% for the TBR when using JEFF-3.2 covariance data with the mentioned additions. When using TENDL-2014 covariance data as replacement, the uncertainty increases to ± 8.6%. For JEFF-3.3T1 the uncertainty result is ± 5.6%. The uncertainty is dominated by O-16, Li-6 and Li-7 cross-sections.

  14. Incorporating Plutonium Particle Size Effects in the Assessment of Active Mode Measurement Uncertainty in Passive-Active Neutron Radioassay Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blackwood, Larry G.; Harker, Yale D.

    2002-01-01

    Assessment of active mode measurement uncertainty in passive-active neutron radioassay systems used to measure Pu content in nuclear waste is severely hampered by lack of knowledge of the waste Pu particle size distribution, which is a major factor in determining bias in active mode measurements. The sensitivity of active mode measurements to particle size precludes using simulations or surrogate waste forms to estimate uncertainty in active mode measurements when the particle size distribution is not precisely known or inadequately reproduced. An alternative approach is based on a statistical comparison of active and passive mode results in the mass range for which both active and passive mode analyses produce useable measurements. Because passive mode measurements are not particularly sensitive to particle size effects, their uncertainty can be more easily assessed. Once bias corrected, passive mode measurements can serve as confirmatory measurements for the estimation of active mode bias. Further statistical analysis of the errors in measurements leads to precision estimates for the active mode

  15. Incorporating uncertainty into mercury-offset decisions with a probabilistic network for National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System permit holders: an interim report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Alexander

    2004-01-01

    This interim report describes an alternative approach for evaluating the efficacy of using mercury (Hg) offsets to improve water quality. Hg-offset programs may allow dischargers facing higher-pollution control costs to meet their regulatory obligations by making more cost effective pollutant-reduction decisions. Efficient Hg management requires methods to translate that science and economics into a regulatory decision framework. This report documents the work in progress by the U.S. Geological Surveys Western Geographic Science Center in collaboration with Stanford University toward developing this decision framework to help managers, regulators, and other stakeholders decide whether offsets can cost effectively meet the Hg total maximum daily load (TMDL) requirements in the Sacramento River watershed. Two key approaches being considered are: (1) a probabilistic approach that explicitly incorporates scientific uncertainty, cost information, and value judgments; and (2) a quantitative approach that captures uncertainty in testing the feasibility of Hg offsets. Current fate and transport-process models commonly attempt to predict chemical transformations and transport pathways deterministically. However, the physical, chemical, and biologic processes controlling the fate and transport of Hg in aquatic environments are complex and poorly understood. Deterministic models of Hg environmental behavior contain large uncertainties, reflecting this lack of understanding. The uncertainty in these underlying physical processes may produce similarly large uncertainties in the decisionmaking process. However, decisions about control strategies are still being made despite the large uncertainties in current Hg loadings, the relations between total Hg (HgT) loading and methylmercury (MeHg) formation, and the relations between control efforts and Hg content in fish. The research presented here focuses on an alternative analytical approach to the current use of safety factors and

  16. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  17. Incorporation of statistical distribution of particle properties in chemical reactor design and operation: the cooled tubular reactor

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wijngaarden, R.J.; Westerterp, K.R.

    1992-01-01

    Pellet heat and mass transfer coefficients inside packed beds do not have definite deterministic values, but are stochastic quantities with a certain distribution. Here, a method is presented to incorporate the stochastic distribution of pellet properties in reactor design and operation models. The

  18. Parameterizing Spatial Models of Infectious Disease Transmission that Incorporate Infection Time Uncertainty Using Sampling-Based Likelihood Approximations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajat Malik

    Full Text Available A class of discrete-time models of infectious disease spread, referred to as individual-level models (ILMs, are typically fitted in a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC framework. These models quantify probabilistic outcomes regarding the risk of infection of susceptible individuals due to various susceptibility and transmissibility factors, including their spatial distance from infectious individuals. The infectious pressure from infected individuals exerted on susceptible individuals is intrinsic to these ILMs. Unfortunately, quantifying this infectious pressure for data sets containing many individuals can be computationally burdensome, leading to a time-consuming likelihood calculation and, thus, computationally prohibitive MCMC-based analysis. This problem worsens when using data augmentation to allow for uncertainty in infection times. In this paper, we develop sampling methods that can be used to calculate a fast, approximate likelihood when fitting such disease models. A simple random sampling approach is initially considered followed by various spatially-stratified schemes. We test and compare the performance of our methods with both simulated data and data from the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease (FMD epidemic in the U.K. Our results indicate that substantial computation savings can be obtained--albeit, of course, with some information loss--suggesting that such techniques may be of use in the analysis of very large epidemic data sets.

  19. Investigation and incorporation of water inflow uncertainties through stochastic modelling in a combined optimisation methodology for water allocation in Alfeios River (Greece)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bekri, Eleni; Yannopoulos, Panayotis; Disse, Markus

    2014-05-01

    The Alfeios River plays a vital role for Western Peloponnisos in Greece from natural, ecological, social and economic aspect. The main river and its six tributaries, forming the longest watercourse and the highest streamflow rate of Peloponnisose, represent a significant source of water supply for the region, aiming at delivering and satisfying the expected demands from a variety of water users, including irrigation, drinking water supply, hydropower production and recreation. In the previous EGU General Assembly, a fuzzy-boundary-interval linear programming methodology, based on Li et al. (2010) and Bekri et al. (2012), has been presented for optimal water allocation under uncertain and vague system conditions in the Alfeios River Basin. Uncertainties associated with the benefit and cost coefficient in the objective function of the main water uses (hydropower production and irrigation) were expressed as probability distributions and fuzzy boundary intervals derived by associated α-cut levels. The uncertainty of the monthly water inflows was not incorporated in the previous initial application and the analysis of all other sources of uncertainty has been applied to two extreme hydrologic years represented by a selected wet and dry year. To manage and operate the river system, decision makers should be able to analyze and evaluate the impact of various hydrologic scenarios. In the present work, the critical uncertain parameter of water inflows is analyzed and its incorporation as an additional type of uncertainty in the suggested methodology is investigated, in order to enable the assessment of optimal water allocation for hydrologic and socio-economic scenarios based both on historical data and projected climate change conditions. For this purpose, stochastic simulation analysis for a part of the Alfeios river system is undertaken, testing various stochastic models from simple stationary ones (AR and ARMA), Thomas-Fiering, ARIMA as well as more sophisticated and

  20. Predictive Modeling of a Paradigm Mechanical Cooling Tower Model: II. Optimal Best-Estimate Results with Reduced Predicted Uncertainties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruixian Fang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This work uses the adjoint sensitivity model of the counter-flow cooling tower derived in the accompanying PART I to obtain the expressions and relative numerical rankings of the sensitivities, to all model parameters, of the following model responses: (i outlet air temperature; (ii outlet water temperature; (iii outlet water mass flow rate; and (iv air outlet relative humidity. These sensitivities are subsequently used within the “predictive modeling for coupled multi-physics systems” (PM_CMPS methodology to obtain explicit formulas for the predicted optimal nominal values for the model responses and parameters, along with reduced predicted standard deviations for the predicted model parameters and responses. These explicit formulas embody the assimilation of experimental data and the “calibration” of the model’s parameters. The results presented in this work demonstrate that the PM_CMPS methodology reduces the predicted standard deviations to values that are smaller than either the computed or the experimentally measured ones, even for responses (e.g., the outlet water flow rate for which no measurements are available. These improvements stem from the global characteristics of the PM_CMPS methodology, which combines all of the available information simultaneously in phase-space, as opposed to combining it sequentially, as in current data assimilation procedures.

  1. Design Safety Considerations for Water Cooled Small Modular Reactors Incorporating Lessons Learned from the Fukushima Daiichi Accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    The global future deployment of advanced nuclear reactors for electricity generation depends primarily on the ability of nuclear industries, utilities and regulatory authorities to further enhance their reliability and economic competitiveness while satisfying stringent safety requirements. The IAEA has a project to help coordinate Member States efforts in the development and deployment of small and medium sized or small modular reactor (SMR) technology. This project aims simultaneously to facilitate SMR technology developers and potential SMR uses, particularly States embarking on a nuclear power programme, in identifying key enabling technologies and enhancing capacity building by resolving issues relevant to deployment, including nuclear reactor safety. The objective of this publication is to explore common practices for Member States, which will be an essential resource for future development and deployment of SMR technology. The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was caused by an unprecedented combination of natural events: a strong earthquake, beyond the design basis, followed by a series of tsunamis of heights exceeding the design basis tsunami considered in the flood analysis for the site. Consequently, all the operating nuclear power plants and advanced reactors under development, including SMRs, have been incorporating lessons learned from the accident to assure and enhance the performance of the engineered safety features in coping with such external events

  2. Study of reactivity feedbacks in a sodium-cooled fast reactor: new methodology based on perturbation theory for evaluating neutronic uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouret, Cyrille

    2014-01-01

    Fast reactors (FR) can give value to the plutonium produced by the existing light water reactors and allow the transmutation of a significant part of the final nuclear waste. These features offer industrial prospects for this technology and new projects are currently studied in the world such as ASTRID prototype in France. Future FRs will have also to satisfy new requirements in terms of competitiveness, safety and reliability. In this context, the new core concept envisaged for ASTRID incorporate innovative features that improve the safety of the reactor in case of accident. The proposed design achieves a sodium voiding effect close to zero: it includes a fertile plate in the middle of the core and a sodium plenum in the upper part in order to increase the neutron leakage in case of sodium voiding. This heterogeneous design represents a challenge for the calculation tools and methods used so far to evaluate the neutronic parameters in traditional homogeneous cores. These methods have been improved over the thesis to rigorously treat the neutron streaming, especially at the mediums interfaces. These enhancements have consisted in the development of a specific analysis methodology based on perturbation theory and using a modern three dimensional Sn transport solver. This work has allowed on the one hand, to reduce the bias on static neutronic parameters in comparison with Monte Carlo methods, and, on the other hand, to obtain more accurate spatial distributions of neutronic effects including the reactivity feedback coefficients used for transient analysis. The analysis of the core behavior during transients has also allowed estimating the impact of reactivity feedback coefficients assessment improvements. In conjunction with this work, innovative methods based on the evaluation of local sensitivities coefficients have been proposed to assess the uncertainties associated to local reactivity effects. These uncertainties include the correlations between the different

  3. Restaurant food cooling practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Laura Green; Ripley, Danny; Blade, Henry; Reimann, Dave; Everstine, Karen; Nicholas, Dave; Egan, Jessica; Koktavy, Nicole; Quilliam, Daniela N

    2012-12-01

    Improper food cooling practices are a significant cause of foodborne illness, yet little is known about restaurant food cooling practices. This study was conducted to examine food cooling practices in restaurants. Specifically, the study assesses the frequency with which restaurants meet U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommendations aimed at reducing pathogen proliferation during food cooling. Members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Environmental Health Specialists Network collected data on food cooling practices in 420 restaurants. The data collected indicate that many restaurants are not meeting FDA recommendations concerning cooling. Although most restaurant kitchen managers report that they have formal cooling processes (86%) and provide training to food workers on proper cooling (91%), many managers said that they do not have tested and verified cooling processes (39%), do not monitor time or temperature during cooling processes (41%), or do not calibrate thermometers used for monitoring temperatures (15%). Indeed, 86% of managers reported cooling processes that did not incorporate all FDA-recommended components. Additionally, restaurants do not always follow recommendations concerning specific cooling methods, such as refrigerating cooling food at shallow depths, ventilating cooling food, providing open-air space around the tops and sides of cooling food containers, and refraining from stacking cooling food containers on top of each other. Data from this study could be used by food safety programs and the restaurant industry to target training and intervention efforts concerning cooling practices. These efforts should focus on the most frequent poor cooling practices, as identified by this study.

  4. Complete Sensitivity/Uncertainty Analysis of LR-0 Reactor Experiments with MSRE FLiBe Salt and Perform Comparison with Molten Salt Cooled and Molten Salt Fueled Reactor Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Nicholas R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Powers, Jeffrey J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Mueller, Don [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Patton, Bruce W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2016-12-01

    In September 2016, reactor physics measurements were conducted at Research Centre Rez (RC Rez) using the FLiBe (2 7LiF + BeF2) salt from the Molten Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) in the LR-0 low power nuclear reactor. These experiments were intended to inform on neutron spectral effects and nuclear data uncertainties for advanced reactor systems using FLiBe salt in a thermal neutron energy spectrum. Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with RC Rez, performed sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) analyses of these experiments as part of the ongoing collaboration between the United States and the Czech Republic on civilian nuclear energy research and development. The objectives of these analyses were (1) to identify potential sources of bias in fluoride salt-cooled and salt-fueled reactor simulations resulting from cross section uncertainties, and (2) to produce the sensitivity of neutron multiplication to cross section data on an energy-dependent basis for specific nuclides. This report provides a final report on the S/U analyses of critical experiments at the LR-0 Reactor relevant to fluoride salt-cooled high temperature reactor (FHR) and liquid-fueled molten salt reactor (MSR) concepts. In the future, these S/U analyses could be used to inform the design of additional FLiBe-based experiments using the salt from MSRE. The key finding of this work is that, for both solid and liquid fueled fluoride salt reactors, radiative capture in 7Li is the most significant contributor to potential bias in neutronics calculations within the FLiBe salt.

  5. Probability of Loss of Assured Safety in Systems with Multiple Time-Dependent Failure Modes: Incorporation of Delayed Link Failure in the Presence of Aleatory Uncertainty.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helton, Jon C. [Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Sallaberry, Cedric Jean-Marie. [Engineering Mechanics Corp. of Columbus, OH (United States)

    2018-02-01

    Probability of loss of assured safety (PLOAS) is modeled for weak link (WL)/strong link (SL) systems in which one or more WLs or SLs could potentially degrade into a precursor condition to link failure that will be followed by an actual failure after some amount of elapsed time. The following topics are considered: (i) Definition of precursor occurrence time cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) for individual WLs and SLs, (ii) Formal representation of PLOAS with constant delay times, (iii) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with constant delay times, (iv) Formal representation of PLOAS with aleatory uncertainty in delay times, (v) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with aleatory uncertainty in delay times, (vi) Formal representation of PLOAS with delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for failure precursors, (vii) Approximation and illustration of PLOAS with delay times defined by functions of link properties at occurrence times for failure precursors, and (viii) Procedures for the verification of PLOAS calculations for the three indicated definitions of delayed link failure.

  6. Cool Sportswear

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    New athletic wear design based on the circulating liquid cooling system used in the astronaut's space suits, allows athletes to perform more strenuous activity without becoming overheated. Techni-Clothes gear incorporates packets containing a heat-absorbing gel that slips into an insulated pocket of the athletic garment and is positioned near parts of the body where heat transfer is most efficient. A gel packet is good for about one hour. Easily replaced from a supply of spares in an insulated container worn on the belt. The products, targeted primarily for runners and joggers and any other athlete whose performance may be affected by hot weather, include cooling headbands, wrist bands and running shorts with gel-pack pockets.

  7. Restaurant Food Cooling Practices†

    Science.gov (United States)

    BROWN, LAURA GREEN; RIPLEY, DANNY; BLADE, HENRY; REIMANN, DAVE; EVERSTINE, KAREN; NICHOLAS, DAVE; EGAN, JESSICA; KOKTAVY, NICOLE; QUILLIAM, DANIELA N.

    2017-01-01

    Improper food cooling practices are a significant cause of foodborne illness, yet little is known about restaurant food cooling practices. This study was conducted to examine food cooling practices in restaurants. Specifically, the study assesses the frequency with which restaurants meet U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) recommendations aimed at reducing pathogen proliferation during food cooling. Members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Environmental Health Specialists Network collected data on food cooling practices in 420 restaurants. The data collected indicate that many restaurants are not meeting FDA recommendations concerning cooling. Although most restaurant kitchen managers report that they have formal cooling processes (86%) and provide training to food workers on proper cooling (91%), many managers said that they do not have tested and verified cooling processes (39%), do not monitor time or temperature during cooling processes (41%), or do not calibrate thermometers used for monitoring temperatures (15%). Indeed, 86% of managers reported cooling processes that did not incorporate all FDA-recommended components. Additionally, restaurants do not always follow recommendations concerning specific cooling methods, such as refrigerating cooling food at shallow depths, ventilating cooling food, providing open-air space around the tops and sides of cooling food containers, and refraining from stacking cooling food containers on top of each other. Data from this study could be used by food safety programs and the restaurant industry to target training and intervention efforts concerning cooling practices. These efforts should focus on the most frequent poor cooling practices, as identified by this study. PMID:23212014

  8. Cooling techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moeller, S.P.

    1994-01-01

    After an introduction to the general concepts of cooling of charged particle beams, some specific cooling methods are discussed, namely stochastic, electron and laser cooling. The treatment concentrates on the physical ideas of the cooling methods and only very crude derivations of cooling times are given. At the end three other proposed cooling schemes are briefly discussed. (orig.)

  9. Study of the comparative dynamics of the incorporation of tissue free-water tritium (TFWT) in bulrushes (Typha latifolia) and carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the Almaraz nuclear power plant cooling reservoir

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baeza, A. [Department of Applied Physics, Faculty of Veterinary, University of Extremadura, Avda de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain)], E-mail: ymiralle@unex.es; Garcia, E. [Department of Applied Physics, Technical Forest Engineering School, University of Extremadura, 10600 (Plasencia) Caceres (Spain); Paniagua, J.M. [Department of Applied Physics, Polytechnic School, University of Extremadura, Avda de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain); Rodriguez, A. [Department of Applied Physics, Faculty of Veterinary, University of Extremadura, Avda de la Universidad s/n, 10071 Caceres (Spain)

    2009-03-15

    The Almaraz nuclear power plant (Spain) uses the water of Arrocampo reservoir for cooling, and consequently raises the radioactive levels of the aquatic ecosystem of this reservoir. From July 2002 to June 2005, monthly samples of surface water, bulrushes (Typha latifolia) and carp (Cyprinus carpio) were collected from this reservoir. They were analyzed to determine the temporal evolution of the levels of {sup 3}H in surface water and of its transfer from the surface water to free-water in the tissues (TFWT) of the aforementioned two organisms. The tritium levels in the surface water oscillate with a biannual period, with their values in the study period ranging between 53 and 433 Bq/L. The incorporation of tritium to bulrushes and carp was fairly similar, the respective mean concentration factors being 0.74 and 0.8 (unitless, as Bq/L tissue water per Bq/L reservoir water). The temporal evolution of the levels fairly closely followed that observed for the surface water tritium, although detailed analysis showed the dominant periodicity for the bulrushes to be annual. This difference reflects the influence on the incorporation of tritium to bulrushes of diverse environmental and metabolic factors, especially evapotranspiration and the seasonal growth of this plant.

  10. Study of the comparative dynamics of the incorporation of tissue free-water tritium (TFWT) in bulrushes (Typha latifolia) and carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the Almaraz nuclear power plant cooling reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baeza, A.; Garcia, E.; Paniagua, J.M.; Rodriguez, A.

    2009-01-01

    The Almaraz nuclear power plant (Spain) uses the water of Arrocampo reservoir for cooling, and consequently raises the radioactive levels of the aquatic ecosystem of this reservoir. From July 2002 to June 2005, monthly samples of surface water, bulrushes (Typha latifolia) and carp (Cyprinus carpio) were collected from this reservoir. They were analyzed to determine the temporal evolution of the levels of 3 H in surface water and of its transfer from the surface water to free-water in the tissues (TFWT) of the aforementioned two organisms. The tritium levels in the surface water oscillate with a biannual period, with their values in the study period ranging between 53 and 433 Bq/L. The incorporation of tritium to bulrushes and carp was fairly similar, the respective mean concentration factors being 0.74 and 0.8 (unitless, as Bq/L tissue water per Bq/L reservoir water). The temporal evolution of the levels fairly closely followed that observed for the surface water tritium, although detailed analysis showed the dominant periodicity for the bulrushes to be annual. This difference reflects the influence on the incorporation of tritium to bulrushes of diverse environmental and metabolic factors, especially evapotranspiration and the seasonal growth of this plant

  11. Understanding uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lindley, Dennis V

    2013-01-01

    Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

  12. Cooling towers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boernke, F.

    1975-01-01

    The need for the use of cooling systems in power plant engineering is dealt with from the point of view of a non-polluting form of energy production. The various cooling system concepts up to the modern natural-draught cooling towers are illustrated by examples. (TK/AK) [de

  13. Measurement Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koch, Michael

    Measurement uncertainty is one of the key issues in quality assurance. It became increasingly important for analytical chemistry laboratories with the accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025. The uncertainty of a measurement is the most important criterion for the decision whether a measurement result is fit for purpose. It also delivers help for the decision whether a specification limit is exceeded or not. Estimation of measurement uncertainty often is not trivial. Several strategies have been developed for this purpose that will shortly be described in this chapter. In addition the different possibilities to take into account the uncertainty in compliance assessment are explained.

  14. Cooling device for reactor container

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Kenji.

    1996-01-01

    Upon assembling a static container cooling system to an emergency reactor core cooling system using dynamic pumps in a power plant, the present invention provides a cooling device of lowered center of gravity and having a good cooling effect by lowering the position of a cooling water pool of the static container cooling system. Namely, the emergency reactor core cooling system injects water to the inside of a pressure vessel using emergency cooling water stored in a suppression pool as at least one water source upon loss of reactor coolant accident. In addition, a cooling water pool incorporating a heat exchanger is disposed at the circumference of the suppression pool at the outside of the container. A dry well and the heat exchanger are connected by way of steam supply pipes, and the heat exchanger is connected with the suppression pool by way of a gas exhaustion pipe and a condensate returning pipeline. With such a constitution, the position of the heat exchanger is made higher than an ordinary water level of the suppression pool. As a result, the emergency cooling water of the suppression pool water is injected to the pressure vessel by the operation of the reactor cooling pumps upon loss of coolant accident to cool the reactor core. (I.S.)

  15. Spray cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rollin, Philippe.

    1975-01-01

    Spray cooling - using water spraying in air - is surveyed as a possible system for make-up (peak clipping in open circuit) or major cooling (in closed circuit) of the cooling water of the condensers in thermal power plants. Indications are given on the experiments made in France and the systems recently developed in USA, questions relating to performance, cost and environmental effects of spray devices are then dealt with [fr

  16. Uncertainty analysis for geologic disposal of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cranwell, R.M.; Helton, J.C.

    1981-01-01

    The incorporation and representation of uncertainty in the analysis of the consequences and risks associated with the geologic disposal of high-level radioactive waste are discussed. Such uncertainty has three primary components: process modeling uncertainty, model input data uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty. The following topics are considered in connection with the preceding components: propagation of uncertainty in the modeling of a disposal site, sampling of input data for models, and uncertainty associated with model output

  17. Uncertainty theory

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Baoding

    2015-01-01

    When no samples are available to estimate a probability distribution, we have to invite some domain experts to evaluate the belief degree that each event will happen. Perhaps some people think that the belief degree should be modeled by subjective probability or fuzzy set theory. However, it is usually inappropriate because both of them may lead to counterintuitive results in this case. In order to rationally deal with belief degrees, uncertainty theory was founded in 2007 and subsequently studied by many researchers. Nowadays, uncertainty theory has become a branch of axiomatic mathematics for modeling belief degrees. This is an introductory textbook on uncertainty theory, uncertain programming, uncertain statistics, uncertain risk analysis, uncertain reliability analysis, uncertain set, uncertain logic, uncertain inference, uncertain process, uncertain calculus, and uncertain differential equation. This textbook also shows applications of uncertainty theory to scheduling, logistics, networks, data mining, c...

  18. Gas-cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schulten, R.; Trauger, D.B.

    1976-01-01

    Experience to date with operation of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors has been quite favorable. Despite problems in completion of construction and startup, three high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) units have operated well. The Windscale Advanced Gas-Cooled Reactor (AGR) in the United Kingdom has had an excellent operating history, and initial operation of commercial AGRs shows them to be satisfactory. The latter reactors provide direct experience in scale-up from the Windscale experiment to fullscale commercial units. The Colorado Fort St. Vrain 330-MWe prototype helium-cooled HTGR is now in the approach-to-power phase while the 300-MWe Pebble Bed THTR prototype in the Federal Republic of Germany is scheduled for completion of construction by late 1978. THTR will be the first nuclear power plant which uses a dry cooling tower. Fuel reprocessing and refabrication have been developed in the laboratory and are now entering a pilot-plant scale development. Several commercial HTGR power station orders were placed in the U.S. prior to 1975 with similar plans for stations in the FRG. However, the combined effects of inflation, reduced electric power demand, regulatory uncertainties, and pricing problems led to cancellation of the 12 reactors which were in various stages of planning, design, and licensing

  19. Davis-Besse uncertainty study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davis, C.B.

    1987-08-01

    The uncertainties of calculations of loss-of-feedwater transients at Davis-Besse Unit 1 were determined to address concerns of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission relative to the effectiveness of feed and bleed cooling. Davis-Besse Unit 1 is a pressurized water reactor of the raised-loop Babcock and Wilcox design. A detailed, quality-assured RELAP5/MOD2 model of Davis-Besse was developed at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The model was used to perform an analysis of the loss-of-feedwater transient that occurred at Davis-Besse on June 9, 1985. A loss-of-feedwater transient followed by feed and bleed cooling was also calculated. The evaluation of uncertainty was based on the comparisons of calculations and data, comparisons of different calculations of the same transient, sensitivity calculations, and the propagation of the estimated uncertainty in initial and boundary conditions to the final calculated results

  20. Ventilative Cooling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heiselberg, Per Kvols; Kolokotroni, Maria

    This report, by venticool, summarises the outcome of the work of the initial working phase of IEA ECB Annex 62 Ventilative Cooling and is based on the findings in the participating countries. It presents a summary of the first official Annex 62 report that describes the state-of-the-art of ventil......This report, by venticool, summarises the outcome of the work of the initial working phase of IEA ECB Annex 62 Ventilative Cooling and is based on the findings in the participating countries. It presents a summary of the first official Annex 62 report that describes the state......-of-the-art of ventilative cooling potentials and limitations, its consideration in current energy performance regulations, available building components and control strategies and analysis methods and tools. In addition, the report provides twenty six examples of operational buildings using ventilative cooling ranging from...

  1. Teaching Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duerdoth, Ian

    2009-01-01

    The subject of uncertainties (sometimes called errors) is traditionally taught (to first-year science undergraduates) towards the end of a course on statistics that defines probability as the limit of many trials, and discusses probability distribution functions and the Gaussian distribution. We show how to introduce students to the concepts of…

  2. Calibration uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Anglov, Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Methods recommended by the International Standardization Organisation and Eurachem are not satisfactory for the correct estimation of calibration uncertainty. A novel approach is introduced and tested on actual calibration data for the determination of Pb by ICP-AES. The improved calibration...

  3. Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shull, A.H.

    1997-01-01

    An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

  4. Cooling towers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korik, L.; Burger, R.

    1992-01-01

    What is the effect of 0.6C (1F) temperature rise across turbines, compressors, or evaporators? Enthalpy charts indicate for every 0.6C (1F) hotter water off the cooling tower will require an additional 2 1/2% more energy cost. Therefore, running 2.2C (4F) warmer due to substandard cooling towers could result in a 10% penalty for overcoming high heads and temperatures. If it costs $1,250,000.00 a year to operate the system, $125,000.00 is the energy penalty for hotter water. This paper investigates extra fuel costs involved in maintaining design electric production with cooling water 0.6C (1F) to 3C (5.5F) hotter than design. If design KWH cannot be maintained, paper will calculate dollar loss of saleable electricity. The presentation will conclude with examining the main causes of deficient cold water production. State-of-the-art upgrading and methodology available to retrofit existing cooling towers to optimize lower cooling water temperatures will be discussed

  5. Demand Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Daniel Xuyen

    This paper presents a model of trade that explains why firms wait to export and why many exporters fail. Firms face uncertain demands that are only realized after the firm enters the destination. The model retools the timing of uncertainty resolution found in productivity heterogeneity models....... This retooling addresses several shortcomings. First, the imperfect correlation of demands reconciles the sales variation observed in and across destinations. Second, since demands for the firm's output are correlated across destinations, a firm can use previously realized demands to forecast unknown demands...... in untested destinations. The option to forecast demands causes firms to delay exporting in order to gather more information about foreign demand. Third, since uncertainty is resolved after entry, many firms enter a destination and then exit after learning that they cannot profit. This prediction reconciles...

  6. Cooling tower

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Norbaeck, P; Heneby, H

    1976-01-22

    Cooling towers to be transported on road vehicles as a unit are not allowed to exceed certain dimensions. In order to improve the efficiency of such a cooling tower (of cross-flow design and box-type body) with given dimensions, it is proposed to arrange at least one of the scrubbing bodies displaceable within a module or box. Then it can be moved out of the casing into working position, thereby increasing the front surface available for the inlet of air (and with it the efficiency) by nearly a factor of two.

  7. Investigation of V and V process for thermal fatigue issue in a sodium cooled fast reactor – Application of uncertainty quantification scheme in verification and validation with fluid-structure thermal interaction problem in T-junction piping system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanaka, Masaaki, E-mail: tanaka.masaaki@jaea.go.jp

    2014-11-15

    Highlights: • Outline of numerical simulation code MUGTHES for fluid-structure thermal interaction was described. • The grid convergence index (GCI) method was applied according to the ASME V and V-20 guide. • Uncertainty of MUGTHES can be successfully quantified for thermal-hydraulic problems and unsteady heat conduction problems in the structure. • Validation for fluid-structure thermal interaction problem in a T-junction piping system was well conducted. - Abstract: Thermal fatigue caused by thermal mixing phenomena is one of the most important issues in design and safety assessment of fast breeder reactors. A numerical simulation code MUGTHES consisting of two calculation modules for unsteady thermal-hydraulics analysis and unsteady heat conduction analysis in structure has been developed to predict thermal mixing phenomena and to estimate thermal response of structure under the thermal interaction between fluid and structure fields. Although verification and validation (V and V) of MUGTHES has been required, actual procedure for uncertainty quantification is not fixed yet. In order to specify an actual procedure of V and V, uncertainty quantifications with the grid convergence index (GCI) estimation according to the existing guidelines were conducted in fundamental laminar flow problems for the thermal-hydraulics analysis module, and also uncertainty for the structure heat conduction analysis module and conjugate heat transfer model was quantified in comparison with the theoretical solutions of unsteady heat conduction problems. After the verification, MUGTHES was validated for a practical fluid-structure thermal interaction problem in T-junction piping system compared with measured results of velocity and temperatures of fluid and structure. Through the numerical simulations in the verification and validation, uncertainty of the code was successfully estimated and applicability of the code to the thermal fatigue issue was confirmed.

  8. Emergency core cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Ken.

    1989-01-01

    In PWR type reactors, a cooling water spray portion of emergency core cooling pipelines incorporated into pipelines on high temperature side is protruded to the inside of an upper plenum. Upon rupture of primary pipelines, pressure in a pressure vessel is abruptly reduced to generate a great amount of steams in the reactor core, which are discharged at a high flow rate into the primary pipelines on high temperature side. However, since the inside of the upper plenum has a larger area and the steam flow is slow, as compared with that of the pipelines on the high temperature side, ECCS water can surely be supplied into the reactor core to promote the re-flooding of the reactor core and effectively cool the reactor. Since the nuclear reactor can effectively be cooled to enable the promotion of pressure reduction and effective supply of coolants during the period of pressure reduction upon LOCA, the capacity of the pressure accumulation vessel can be decreased. Further, the re-flooding time for the reactor is shortened to provide an effect contributing to the improvement of the safety and the reduction of the cost. (N.H.)

  9. Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

    2016-01-01

    Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

  10. Photometric Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zou, Xiao-Duan; Li, Jian-Yang; Clark, Beth Ellen; Golish, Dathon

    2018-01-01

    The OSIRIS-REx spacecraft, launched in September, 2016, will study the asteroid Bennu and return a sample from its surface to Earth in 2023. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight into the formation and evolution of the solar system. OSIRIS-REx will first approach Bennu in August 2018 and will study the asteroid for approximately two years before sampling. OSIRIS-REx will develop its photometric model (including Lommel-Seelinger, ROLO, McEwen, Minnaert and Akimov) of Bennu with OCAM and OVIRS during the Detailed Survey mission phase. The model developed during this phase will be used to photometrically correct the OCAM and OVIRS data.Here we present the analysis of the error for the photometric corrections. Based on our testing data sets, we find:1. The model uncertainties is only correct when we use the covariance matrix to calculate, because the parameters are highly correlated.2. No evidence of domination of any parameter in each model.3. And both model error and the data error contribute to the final correction error comparably.4. We tested the uncertainty module on fake and real data sets, and find that model performance depends on the data coverage and data quality. These tests gave us a better understanding of how different model behave in different case.5. L-S model is more reliable than others. Maybe because the simulated data are based on L-S model. However, the test on real data (SPDIF) does show slight advantage of L-S, too. ROLO is not reliable to use when calculating bond albedo. The uncertainty of McEwen model is big in most cases. Akimov performs unphysical on SOPIE 1 data.6. Better use L-S as our default choice, this conclusion is based mainly on our test on SOPIE data and IPDIF.

  11. Stochastic cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bisognano, J.; Leemann, C.

    1982-03-01

    Stochastic cooling is the damping of betatron oscillations and momentum spread of a particle beam by a feedback system. In its simplest form, a pickup electrode detects the transverse positions or momenta of particles in a storage ring, and the signal produced is amplified and applied downstream to a kicker. The time delay of the cable and electronics is designed to match the transit time of particles along the arc of the storage ring between the pickup and kicker so that an individual particle receives the amplified version of the signal it produced at the pick-up. If there were only a single particle in the ring, it is obvious that betatron oscillations and momentum offset could be damped. However, in addition to its own signal, a particle receives signals from other beam particles. In the limit of an infinite number of particles, no damping could be achieved; we have Liouville's theorem with constant density of the phase space fluid. For a finite, albeit large number of particles, there remains a residue of the single particle damping which is of practical use in accumulating low phase space density beams of particles such as antiprotons. It was the realization of this fact that led to the invention of stochastic cooling by S. van der Meer in 1968. Since its conception, stochastic cooling has been the subject of much theoretical and experimental work. The earliest experiments were performed at the ISR in 1974, with the subsequent ICE studies firmly establishing the stochastic cooling technique. This work directly led to the design and construction of the Antiproton Accumulator at CERN and the beginnings of p anti p colliding beam physics at the SPS. Experiments in stochastic cooling have been performed at Fermilab in collaboration with LBL, and a design is currently under development for a anti p accumulator for the Tevatron

  12. Uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, R.E.

    1982-03-01

    An evaluation is made of the suitability of analytical and statistical sampling methods for making uncertainty analyses. The adjoint method is found to be well-suited for obtaining sensitivity coefficients for computer programs involving large numbers of equations and input parameters. For this purpose the Latin Hypercube Sampling method is found to be inferior to conventional experimental designs. The Latin hypercube method can be used to estimate output probability density functions, but requires supplementary rank transformations followed by stepwise regression to obtain uncertainty information on individual input parameters. A simple Cork and Bottle problem is used to illustrate the efficiency of the adjoint method relative to certain statistical sampling methods. For linear models of the form Ax=b it is shown that a complete adjoint sensitivity analysis can be made without formulating and solving the adjoint problem. This can be done either by using a special type of statistical sampling or by reformulating the primal problem and using suitable linear programming software

  13. Theory of semiconductor laser cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupper, Greg

    Recently laser cooling of semiconductors has received renewed attention, with the hope that a semiconductor cooler might be able to achieve cryogenic temperatures. In order to study semiconductor laser cooling at cryogenic temperatures, it is crucial that the theory include both the effects of excitons and the electron-hole plasma. In this dissertation, I present a theoretical analysis of laser cooling of bulk GaAs based on a microscopic many-particle theory of absorption and luminescence of a partially ionized electron-hole plasma. This theory has been analyzed from a temperature 10K to 500K. It is shown that at high temperatures (above 300K), cooling can be modeled using older models with a few parameter changes. Below 200K, band filling effects dominate over Auger recombination. Below 30K excitonic effects are essential for laser cooling. In all cases, excitonic effects make cooling easier then predicted by a free carrier model. The initial cooling model is based on the assumption of a homogeneous undoped semiconductor. This model has been systematically modified to include effects that are present in real laser cooling experiments. The following modifications have been performed. (1) Propagation and polariton effects have been included. (2) The effect of p-doping has been included. (n-doping can be modeled in a similar fashion.) (3) In experiments, a passivation layer is required to minimize non-radiative recombination. The passivation results in a npn heterostructure. The effect of the npn heterostructure on cooling has been analyzed. (4) The effect of a Gaussian pump beam was analyzed and (5) Some of the parameters in the cooling model have a large uncertainty. The effect of modifying these parameters has been analyzed. Most of the extensions to the original theory have only had a modest effect on the overall results. However we find that the current passivation technique may not be sufficient to allow cooling. The passivation technique currently used appears

  14. A very cool cooling system

    CERN Multimedia

    Antonella Del Rosso

    2015-01-01

    The NA62 Gigatracker is a jewel of technology: its sensor, which delivers the time of the crossing particles with a precision of less than 200 picoseconds (better than similar LHC detectors), has a cooling system that might become the precursor to a completely new detector technique.   The 115 metre long vacuum tank of the NA62 experiment. The NA62 Gigatracker (GTK) is composed of a set of three innovative silicon pixel detectors, whose job is to measure the arrival time and the position of the incoming beam particles. Installed in the heart of the NA62 detector, the silicon sensors are cooled down (to about -20 degrees Celsius) by a microfluidic silicon device. “The cooling system is needed to remove the heat produced by the readout chips the silicon sensor is bonded to,” explains Alessandro Mapelli, microsystems engineer working in the Physics department. “For the NA62 Gigatracker we have designed a cooling plate on top of which both the silicon sensor and the...

  15. Uncertainty Analyses and Strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kevin Coppersmith

    2001-01-01

    The DOE identified a variety of uncertainties, arising from different sources, during its assessment of the performance of a potential geologic repository at the Yucca Mountain site. In general, the number and detail of process models developed for the Yucca Mountain site, and the complex coupling among those models, make the direct incorporation of all uncertainties difficult. The DOE has addressed these issues in a number of ways using an approach to uncertainties that is focused on producing a defensible evaluation of the performance of a potential repository. The treatment of uncertainties oriented toward defensible assessments has led to analyses and models with so-called ''conservative'' assumptions and parameter bounds, where conservative implies lower performance than might be demonstrated with a more realistic representation. The varying maturity of the analyses and models, and uneven level of data availability, result in total system level analyses with a mix of realistic and conservative estimates (for both probabilistic representations and single values). That is, some inputs have realistically represented uncertainties, and others are conservatively estimated or bounded. However, this approach is consistent with the ''reasonable assurance'' approach to compliance demonstration, which was called for in the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC) proposed 10 CFR Part 63 regulation (64 FR 8640 [DIRS 101680]). A risk analysis that includes conservatism in the inputs will result in conservative risk estimates. Therefore, the approach taken for the Total System Performance Assessment for the Site Recommendation (TSPA-SR) provides a reasonable representation of processes and conservatism for purposes of site recommendation. However, mixing unknown degrees of conservatism in models and parameter representations reduces the transparency of the analysis and makes the development of coherent and consistent probability statements about projected repository

  16. Cooling pancakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, J.R.; Wilson, J.R.

    1984-01-01

    In theories of galaxy formation with a damping cut-off in the density fluctuation spectrum, the first non-linear structures to form are Zeldovich pancakes in which dissipation separates gas from any collisionless dark matter then present. One-dimensional numerical simulations of the collapse, shock heating, and subsequent thermal evolution of pancakes are described. Neutrinos (or any other cool collisionless particles) are followed by direct N-body methods and the gas by Eulerian hydrodynamics with conduction as well as cooling included. It is found that the pressure is relatively uniform within the shocked region and approximately equals the instantaneous ram pressure acting at the shock front. An analytic theory based upon this result accurately describes the numerical calculations. (author)

  17. Cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutant, C.C.

    1978-01-01

    Progress on the thermal effects project is reported with regard to physiology and distribution of Corbicula; power plant effects studies on burrowing mayfly populations; comparative thermal responses of largemouth bass from northern and southern populations; temperature selection by striped bass in Cherokee Reservoir; fish population studies; and predictive thermoregulation by fishes. Progress is also reported on the following; cause and ecological ramifications of threadfin shad impingement; entrainment project; aquaculture project; pathogenic amoeba project; and cooling tower drift project

  18. Electron Cooling of RHIC

    CERN Document Server

    Ben-Zvi, Ilan; Barton, Donald; Beavis, Dana; Blaskiewicz, Michael; Bluem, Hans; Brennan, Joseph M; Bruhwiler, David L; Burger, Al; Burov, Alexey; Burrill, Andrew; Calaga, Rama; Cameron, Peter; Chang, Xiangyun; Cole, Michael; Connolly, Roger; Delayen, Jean R; Derbenev, Yaroslav S; Eidelman, Yury I; Favale, Anthony; Fedotov, Alexei V; Fischer, Wolfram; Funk, L W; Gassner, David M; Hahn, Harald; Harrison, Michael; Hershcovitch, Ady; Holmes, Douglas; Hseuh Hsiao Chaun; Johnson, Peter; Kayran, Dmitry; Kewisch, Jorg; Kneisel, Peter; Koop, Ivan; Lambiase, Robert; Litvinenko, Vladimir N; MacKay, William W; Mahler, George; Malitsky, Nikolay; McIntyre, Gary; Meng, Wuzheng; Merminga, Lia; Meshkov, Igor; Mirabella, Kerry; Montag, Christoph; Nagaitsev, Sergei; Nehring, Thomas; Nicoletti, Tony; Oerter, Brian; Parkhomchuk, Vasily; Parzen, George; Pate, David; Phillips, Larry; Preble, Joseph P; Rank, Jim; Rao, Triveni; Rathke, John; Roser, Thomas; Russo, Thomas; Scaduto, Joseph; Schultheiss, Tom; Sekutowicz, Jacek; Shatunov, Yuri; Sidorin, Anatoly O; Skrinsky, Aleksander Nikolayevich; Smirnov, Alexander V; Smith, Kevin T; Todd, Alan M M; Trbojevic, Dejan; Troubnikov, Grigory; Wang, Gang; Wei, Jie; Williams, Neville; Wu, Kuo-Chen; Yakimenko, Vitaly; Zaltsman, Alex; Zhao, Yongxiang; ain, Animesh K

    2005-01-01

    We report progress on the R&D program for electron-cooling of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). This electron cooler is designed to cool 100 GeV/nucleon at storage energy using 54 MeV electrons. The electron source will be a superconducting RF photocathode gun. The accelerator will be a superconducting energy recovery linac. The frequency of the accelerator is set at 703.75 MHz. The maximum electron bunch frequency is 9.38 MHz, with bunch charge of 20 nC. The R&D program has the following components: The photoinjector and its photocathode, the superconducting linac cavity, start-to-end beam dynamics with magnetized electrons, electron cooling calculations including benchmarking experiments and development of a large superconducting solenoid. The photoinjector and linac cavity are being incorporated into an energy recovery linac aimed at demonstrating ampere class current at about 20 MeV. A Zeroth Order Design Report is in an advanced draft state, and can be found on the web at http://www.ags...

  19. Handling uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jønsson, Jesper Bosse; Fold, Niels

    2009-01-01

    Small-scale mining supports the livelihoods of several hundred thousand rural households in Africa. Nonetheless, the understanding of the organizational dynamics of small-scale miners' activities is modest. The paper outlines the small-scale mining codes in Tanzania and contrasts them to prevalent...... organizational practices in two Tanzanian small-scale mining settlements. It is argued that there is a need to adjust the regulatory mechanisms to well-consolidated practices: If basic practices differ substantially from official prescriptions of the mining codes over an extended period of time, certain elements...... manoeuvring of local small-scale mining operators and the reasons for the variations are essential to understand for policymakers and development practitioners. By incorporating prevalent practices and context-dependent variations in some of the crucial organizational components, it is possible to design...

  20. Cool snacks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grunert, Klaus G; Brock, Steen; Brunsø, Karen

    2016-01-01

    Young people snack and their snacking habits are not always healthy. We address the questions whether it is possible to develop a new snack product that adolescents will find attractive, even though it is based on ingredients as healthy as fruits and vegetables, and we argue that developing...... such a product requires an interdisciplinary effort where researchers with backgrounds in psychology, anthropology, media science, philosophy, sensory science and food science join forces. We present the COOL SNACKS project, where such a blend of competences was used first to obtain thorough insight into young...... people's snacking behaviour and then to develop and test new, healthier snacking solutions. These new snacking solutions were tested and found to be favourably accepted by young people. The paper therefore provides a proof of principle that the development of snacks that are both healthy and attractive...

  1. Cool visitors

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Pictured, from left to right: Tim Izo (saxophone, flute, guitar), Bobby Grant (tour manager), George Pajon (guitar). What do the LHC and a world-famous hip-hop group have in common? They are cool! On Saturday, 1st July, before their appearance at the Montreux Jazz Festival, three members of the 'Black Eyed Peas' came on a surprise visit to CERN, inspired by Dan Brown's Angels and Demons. At short notice, Connie Potter (Head of the ATLAS secretariat) organized a guided tour of ATLAS and the AD 'antimatter factory'. Still curious, lead vocalist Will.I.Am met CERN physicist Rolf Landua after the concert to ask many more questions on particles, CERN, and the origin of the Universe.

  2. Decay heat uncertainty quantification of MYRRHA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fiorito Luca

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available MYRRHA is a lead-bismuth cooled MOX-fueled accelerator driven system (ADS currently in the design phase at SCK·CEN in Belgium. The correct evaluation of the decay heat and of its uncertainty level is very important for the safety demonstration of the reactor. In the first part of this work we assessed the decay heat released by the MYRRHA core using the ALEPH-2 burnup code. The second part of the study focused on the nuclear data uncertainty and covariance propagation to the MYRRHA decay heat. Radioactive decay data, independent fission yield and cross section uncertainties/covariances were propagated using two nuclear data sampling codes, namely NUDUNA and SANDY. According to the results, 238U cross sections and fission yield data are the largest contributors to the MYRRHA decay heat uncertainty. The calculated uncertainty values are deemed acceptable from the safety point of view as they are well within the available regulatory limits.

  3. Background and Qualification of Uncertainty Methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    D'Auria, F.; Petruzzi, A.

    2008-01-01

    The evaluation of uncertainty constitutes the necessary supplement of Best Estimate calculations performed to understand accident scenarios in water cooled nuclear reactors. The needs come from the imperfection of computational tools on the one side and from the interest in using such tool to get more precise evaluation of safety margins. The paper reviews the salient features of two independent approaches for estimating uncertainties associated with predictions of complex system codes. Namely the propagation of code input error and the propagation of the calculation output error constitute the key-words for identifying the methods of current interest for industrial applications. Throughout the developed methods, uncertainty bands can be derived (both upper and lower) for any desired quantity of the transient of interest. For the second case, the uncertainty method is coupled with the thermal-hydraulic code to get the Code with capability of Internal Assessment of Uncertainty, whose features are discussed in more detail.

  4. Decision Under Uncertainty in Diagnosis

    OpenAIRE

    Kalme, Charles I.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the incorporation of uncertainty in diagnostic reasoning based on the set covering model of Reggia et. al. extended to what in the Artificial Intelligence dichotomy between deep and compiled (shallow, surface) knowledge based diagnosis may be viewed as the generic form at the compiled end of the spectrum. A major undercurrent in this is advocating the need for a strong underlying model and an integrated set of support tools for carrying such a model in order to deal with ...

  5. Divertor cooling device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakayama, Tadakazu; Hayashi, Katsumi; Handa, Hiroyuki

    1993-01-01

    Cooling water for a divertor cooling system cools the divertor, thereafter, passes through pipelines connecting the exit pipelines of the divertor cooling system and the inlet pipelines of a blanket cooling system and is introduced to the blanket cooling system in a vacuum vessel. It undergoes emission of neutrons, and cooling water in the divertor cooling system containing a great amount of N-16 which is generated by radioactivation of O-16 is introduced to the blanket cooling system in the vacuum vessel by way of pipelines, and after cooling, passes through exit pipelines of the blanket cooling system and is introduced to the outside of the vacuum vessel. Radiation of N-16 in the cooling water is decayed sufficiently with passage of time during cooling of the blanket, thereby enabling to decrease the amount of shielding materials such as facilities and pipelines, and ensure spaces. (N.H.)

  6. Uncertainty and measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landsberg, P.T.

    1990-01-01

    This paper explores how the quantum mechanics uncertainty relation can be considered to result from measurements. A distinction is drawn between the uncertainties obtained by scrutinising experiments and the standard deviation type of uncertainty definition used in quantum formalism. (UK)

  7. WORKSHOP: Beam cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Cooling - the control of unruly particles to provide well-behaved beams - has become a major new tool in accelerator physics. The main approaches of electron cooling pioneered by Gersh Budker at Novosibirsk and stochastic cooling by Simon van der Meer at CERN, are now complemented by additional ideas, such as laser cooling of ions and ionization cooling of muons

  8. Renewable Heating And Cooling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renewable heating and cooling is a set of alternative resources and technologies that can be used in place of conventional heating and cooling technologies for common applications such as water heating, space heating, space cooling and process heat.

  9. Feedback Cooling of a Single Neutral Atom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koch, Markus; Sames, Christian; Kubanek, Alexander; Apel, Matthias; Balbach, Maximilian; Ourjoumtsev, Alexei; Pinkse, Pepijn Willemszoon Harry; Rempe, Gerhard

    2010-01-01

    We demonstrate feedback cooling of the motion of a single rubidium atom trapped in a high-finesse optical resonator to a temperature of about 160  μK. Time-dependent transmission and intensity-correlation measurements prove the reduction of the atomic position uncertainty. The feedback increases the

  10. Accounting for uncertainty in marine reserve design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halpern, Benjamin S; Regan, Helen M; Possingham, Hugh P; McCarthy, Michael A

    2006-01-01

    Ecosystems and the species and communities within them are highly complex systems that defy predictions with any degree of certainty. Managing and conserving these systems in the face of uncertainty remains a daunting challenge, particularly with respect to developing networks of marine reserves. Here we review several modelling frameworks that explicitly acknowledge and incorporate uncertainty, and then use these methods to evaluate reserve spacing rules given increasing levels of uncertainty about larval dispersal distances. Our approach finds similar spacing rules as have been proposed elsewhere - roughly 20-200 km - but highlights several advantages provided by uncertainty modelling over more traditional approaches to developing these estimates. In particular, we argue that uncertainty modelling can allow for (1) an evaluation of the risk associated with any decision based on the assumed uncertainty; (2) a method for quantifying the costs and benefits of reducing uncertainty; and (3) a useful tool for communicating to stakeholders the challenges in managing highly uncertain systems. We also argue that incorporating rather than avoiding uncertainty will increase the chances of successfully achieving conservation and management goals.

  11. The uncertainties in estimating measurement uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, J.P.; Shull, A.H.

    1994-01-01

    All measurements include some error. Whether measurements are used for accountability, environmental programs or process support, they are of little value unless accompanied by an estimate of the measurements uncertainty. This fact is often overlooked by the individuals who need measurements to make decisions. This paper will discuss the concepts of measurement, measurements errors (accuracy or bias and precision or random error), physical and error models, measurement control programs, examples of measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty as related to measurement quality. Measurements are comparisons of unknowns to knowns, estimates of some true value plus uncertainty; and are no better than the standards to which they are compared. Direct comparisons of unknowns that match the composition of known standards will normally have small uncertainties. In the real world, measurements usually involve indirect comparisons of significantly different materials (e.g., measuring a physical property of a chemical element in a sample having a matrix that is significantly different from calibration standards matrix). Consequently, there are many sources of error involved in measurement processes that can affect the quality of a measurement and its associated uncertainty. How the uncertainty estimates are determined and what they mean is as important as the measurement. The process of calculating the uncertainty of a measurement itself has uncertainties that must be handled correctly. Examples of chemistry laboratory measurement will be reviewed in this report and recommendations made for improving measurement uncertainties

  12. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    OpenAIRE

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size uncertainty). Several researchers have therefore asked themselves the question as to how such uncertainty influences people’s choice behavior. These researchers have repeatedly concluded that uncertainty...

  13. Incorporating Externalities and Uncertainty into Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    based on a variety of carbon policy scenarios, including that put forth in the American Clean Energy and Security Act (ACESA) of 2009 (H.R. 2454... Security Act (ACESA) of 2009 (House Resolution 2454) passed the United States House of Representatives in 2009 but failed to pass the United States...engineering honor society and Sigma Iota Epsilon honorary and professional management fraternity. Upon graduation, he will be assigned to the 60th

  14. Incorporating nurse absenteeism into staffing with demand uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maass, Kayse Lee; Liu, Boying; Daskin, Mark S; Duck, Mary; Wang, Zhehui; Mwenesi, Rama; Schapiro, Hannah

    2017-03-01

    Increased nurse-to-patient ratios are associated negatively with increased costs and positively with improved patient care and reduced nurse burnout rates. Thus, it is critical from a cost, patient safety, and nurse satisfaction perspective that nurses be utilized efficiently and effectively. To address this, we propose a stochastic programming formulation for nurse staffing that accounts for variability in the patient census and nurse absenteeism, day-to-day correlations among the patient census levels, and costs associated with three different classes of nursing personnel: unit, pool, and temporary nurses. The decisions to be made include: how many unit nurses to employ, how large a pool of cross-trained nurses to maintain, how to allocate the pool nurses on a daily basis, and how many temporary nurses to utilize daily. A genetic algorithm is developed to solve the resulting model. Preliminary results using data from a large university hospital suggest that the proposed model can save a four-unit pool hundreds of thousands of dollars annually as opposed to the crude heuristics the hospital currently employs.

  15. BEPU methods and combining of uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prosek, A.; Mavko, B.

    2004-01-01

    After approval of the revised rule on the acceptance of emergency core cooling system (ECCS) performance in 1988 there has been significant interest in the development of codes and methodologies for best-estimate loss-of-coolant accident (LOCAs) analyses. The Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) evaluation method was developed and demonstrated for large-break (LB) LOCA in a pressurized water reactor. Later several new best estimate plus uncertainty methods (BEPUs) were developed in the world. The purpose of the paper is to identify and compare the statistical approaches of BEPU methods and present their important plant and licensing applications. The study showed that uncertainty analysis with random sampling of input parameters and the use of order statistics for desired tolerance limits of output parameters is today commonly accepted approach. The existing BEPU methods seems mature enough while the future research may be focused on the codes with internal assessment of uncertainty. (author)

  16. Cooling Grapple System for FMEF hot cell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Semmens, L.S.; Frandsen, G.B.; Tome, R.

    1983-01-01

    A Cooling Grapple System was designed and built to handle fuel assemblies within the FMEF hot cell. The variety of functions for which it is designed makes it unique from grapples presently in use. The Cooling Grapple can positively grip and transport assemblies vertically, retrieve assemblies from molten sodium where six inches of grapple tip is submerged, cool 7 kw assemblies in argon, and service an in-cell area of 372 m 2 (4000 ft 2 ). Novel and improved operating and maintenance features were incorporated in the design including a shear pin and mechanical catcher system to prevent overloading the grapple while allowing additional reaction time for crane shutdown

  17. Cooled Water Production System,

    Science.gov (United States)

    The invention refers to the field of air conditioning and regards an apparatus for obtaining cooled water . The purpose of the invention is to develop...such a system for obtaining cooled water which would permit the maximum use of the cooling effect of the water -cooling tower.

  18. Process fluid cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farquhar, N.G.; Schwab, J.A.

    1977-01-01

    A system of heat exchangers is disclosed for cooling process fluids. The system is particularly applicable to cooling steam generator blowdown fluid in a nuclear plant prior to chemical purification of the fluid in which it minimizes the potential of boiling of the plant cooling water which cools the blowdown fluid

  19. Hybrid radiator cooling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    France, David M.; Smith, David S.; Yu, Wenhua; Routbort, Jules L.

    2016-03-15

    A method and hybrid radiator-cooling apparatus for implementing enhanced radiator-cooling are provided. The hybrid radiator-cooling apparatus includes an air-side finned surface for air cooling; an elongated vertically extending surface extending outwardly from the air-side finned surface on a downstream air-side of the hybrid radiator; and a water supply for selectively providing evaporative cooling with water flow by gravity on the elongated vertically extending surface.

  20. Decay heat uncertainty quantification of MYRRHA

    OpenAIRE

    Fiorito Luca; Buss Oliver; Hoefer Axel; Stankovskiy Alexey; Eynde Gert Van den

    2017-01-01

    MYRRHA is a lead-bismuth cooled MOX-fueled accelerator driven system (ADS) currently in the design phase at SCK·CEN in Belgium. The correct evaluation of the decay heat and of its uncertainty level is very important for the safety demonstration of the reactor. In the first part of this work we assessed the decay heat released by the MYRRHA core using the ALEPH-2 burnup code. The second part of the study focused on the nuclear data uncertainty and covariance propagation to the MYRRHA decay hea...

  1. Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, K.

    2010-08-12

    The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  2. Visualizing Summary Statistics and Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Potter, K.; Kniss, J.; Riesenfeld, R.; Johnson, C.R.

    2010-01-01

    The graphical depiction of uncertainty information is emerging as a problem of great importance. Scientific data sets are not considered complete without indications of error, accuracy, or levels of confidence. The visual portrayal of this information is a challenging task. This work takes inspiration from graphical data analysis to create visual representations that show not only the data value, but also important characteristics of the data including uncertainty. The canonical box plot is reexamined and a new hybrid summary plot is presented that incorporates a collection of descriptive statistics to highlight salient features of the data. Additionally, we present an extension of the summary plot to two dimensional distributions. Finally, a use-case of these new plots is presented, demonstrating their ability to present high-level overviews as well as detailed insight into the salient features of the underlying data distribution. © 2010 The Eurographics Association and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  3. Instrument uncertainty predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coutts, D.A.

    1991-07-01

    The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

  4. Heating up the gas cooling market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watt, G.

    2001-01-01

    Gas cooling is an exciting technology with a potentially bright future. It comprises the production of cooling (and heating) in buildings and industry, by substituting environmentally-friendlier natural gas or LPG over predominantly coal-fired electricity in air conditioning equipment. There are currently four established technologies using gas to provide cooling energy or conditioned air. These are: absorption, both direct gas-fired and utilising hot water or steam; gas engine driven vapour compression (GED); cogeneration, with absorption cooling driven by recovered heat; and desiccant systems. The emergence of gas cooling technologies has been, and remains, one of evolution rather than revolution. However, further development of the technology has had a revolutionary effect on the performance, reliability and consumer acceptability of gas cooling products. Developments from world-renowned manufacturers such as York, Hitachi, Robur and Thermax have produced a range of absorption equipment variously offering: the use of 100 percent environmentally-friendly refrigerants, with zero global warming potential; the ideal utilisation of waste heat from cogeneration systems; a reduction in electrical distribution and stand-by generation capacity; long product life expectancy; far less noise and vibration; performance efficiency maintained down to about 20 percent of load capacity; and highly automated and low-cost maintenance. It is expected that hybrid systems, that is a mixture of gas and electric cooling technologies, will dominate the future market, reflecting the uncertainty in the electricity market and the prospects of stable future gas prices

  5. Global albedo change and radiative cooling from anthropogenic land cover change, 1700 to 2005 based on MODIS, land use harmonization, radiative kernels, and reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Bardan; Williams, Christopher A.; Masek, Jeffrey; Gao, Feng; Wang, Zhuosen; Schaaf, Crystal; He, Tao

    2014-12-01

    Widespread anthropogenic land cover change over the last five centuries has influenced the global climate system through both biogeochemical and biophysical processes. Models indicate that warming from carbon emissions associated with land cover conversion has been partially offset by cooling from elevated albedo, but considerable uncertainty remains partly because of uncertainty in model treatments of albedo. This study incorporates a new spatially and temporally explicit, land cover specific albedo product derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer with a historical land use data set (Land Use Harmonization product) to provide more precise, observationally derived estimates of albedo impacts from anthropogenic land cover change with a complete range of data set specific uncertainty. The mean annual global albedo increase due to land cover change during 1700-2005 was estimated as 0.00106 ± 0.00008 (mean ± standard deviation), mainly driven by snow exposure due to land cover transitions from natural vegetation to agriculture. This translates to a top-of-atmosphere radiative cooling of -0.15 ± 0.1 W m-2 (mean ± standard deviation). Our estimate was in the middle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report range of -0.05 to -0.25 W m-2 and incorporates variability in albedo within land cover classes.

  6. Influence of different means of turbine blade cooling on the thermodynamic performance of combined cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanjay; Singh, Onkar; Prasad, B.N.

    2008-01-01

    A comparative study of the influence of different means of turbine blade cooling on the thermodynamic performance of combined cycle power plant is presented. Seven schemes involving air and steam as coolants under open and closed loop cooling techniques have been studied. The open loop incorporates the internal convection, film and transpiration cooling techniques. Closed loop cooling includes only internal convection cooling. It has been found that closed loop steam cooling offers more specific work and consequently gives higher value of plant efficiency of about 60%, whereas open loop transpiration steam cooling, open loop steam internal convection cooling, transpiration air cooling, film steam cooling, film air, and internal convection air cooling have been found to yield lower values of plant efficiency in decreasing order as compared to closed loop steam cooling

  7. Uncertainties and reliability theories for reactor safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veneziano, D.

    1975-01-01

    What makes the safety problem of nuclear reactors particularly challenging is the demand for high levels of reliability and the limitation of statistical information. The latter is an unfortunate circumstance, which forces deductive theories of reliability to use models and parameter values with weak factual support. The uncertainty about probabilistic models and parameters which are inferred from limited statistical evidence can be quantified and incorporated rationally into inductive theories of reliability. In such theories, the starting point is the information actually available, as opposed to an estimated probabilistic model. But, while the necessity of introducing inductive uncertainty into reliability theories has been recognized by many authors, no satisfactory inductive theory is presently available. The paper presents: a classification of uncertainties and of reliability models for reactor safety; a general methodology to include these uncertainties into reliability analysis; a discussion about the relative advantages and the limitations of various reliability theories (specifically, of inductive and deductive, parametric and nonparametric, second-moment and full-distribution theories). For example, it is shown that second-moment theories, which were originally suggested to cope with the scarcity of data, and which have been proposed recently for the safety analysis of secondary containment vessels, are the least capable of incorporating statistical uncertainty. The focus is on reliability models for external threats (seismic accelerations and tornadoes). As an application example, the effect of statistical uncertainty on seismic risk is studied using parametric full-distribution models

  8. Uncertainty analysis guide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andres, T.H.

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  9. Uncertainty analysis guide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andres, T.H

    2002-05-01

    This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

  10. Uncertainty and Cognitive Control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faisal eMushtaq

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available A growing trend of neuroimaging, behavioural and computational research has investigated the topic of outcome uncertainty in decision-making. Although evidence to date indicates that humans are very effective in learning to adapt to uncertain situations, the nature of the specific cognitive processes involved in the adaptation to uncertainty are still a matter of debate. In this article, we reviewed evidence suggesting that cognitive control processes are at the heart of uncertainty in decision-making contexts. Available evidence suggests that: (1 There is a strong conceptual overlap between the constructs of uncertainty and cognitive control; (2 There is a remarkable overlap between the neural networks associated with uncertainty and the brain networks subserving cognitive control; (3 The perception and estimation of uncertainty might play a key role in monitoring processes and the evaluation of the need for control; (4 Potential interactions between uncertainty and cognitive control might play a significant role in several affective disorders.

  11. Water cooling coil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suzuki, S; Ito, Y; Kazawa, Y

    1975-02-05

    Object: To provide a water cooling coil in a toroidal nuclear fusion device, in which coil is formed into a small-size in section so as not to increase dimensions, weight or the like of machineries including the coil. Structure: A conductor arranged as an outermost layer of a multiple-wind water cooling coil comprises a hollow conductor, which is directly cooled by fluid, and as a consequence, a solid conductor disposed interiorly thereof is cooled indirectly.

  12. The Cool Colors Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, second from left, a sample from the Cool Colors Project, a roof product ) (Jeff Chiu - AP) more Cool Colors make the front page of The Sacramento Bee (3rd highest circulation newspaper in California) on 14 August 2006! Read the article online or as a PDF. The Cool Colors Project

  13. Small break LOCA RELAP5/MOD3 uncertainty quantification: Bias and uncertainty evaluation for important phenomena

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, M.G.; Ghan, L.S.; Vogl, J.

    1991-01-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) revised the Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) licensing rule to allow the use of Best Estimate (BE) computer codes, provided the uncertainty of the calculations are quantified and used in the licensing and regulation process. The NRC developed a generic methodology called Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) to evaluate BE code uncertainties. The CSAU methodology was demonstrated with a specific application to a pressurized water reactor (PWR), experiencing a postulated large break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA). The current work is part of an effort to adapt and demonstrate the CSAU methodology to a small break (SB) LOCA in a PWR of B and W design using RELAP5/MOD3 as the simulation tool. The subject of this paper is the Assessment and Ranging of Parameters (Element 2 of the CSAU methodology), which determines the contribution to uncertainty of specific models in the code

  14. Quantifying uncertainty due to internal variability using high-resolution regional climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutmann, E. D.; Ikeda, K.; Deser, C.; Rasmussen, R.; Clark, M. P.; Arnold, J. R.

    2015-12-01

    The uncertainty in future climate predictions is as large or larger than the mean climate change signal. As such, any predictions of future climate need to incorporate and quantify the sources of this uncertainty. One of the largest sources comes from the internal, chaotic, variability within the climate system itself. This variability has been approximated using the 30 ensemble members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble. Here we examine the wet and dry end members of this ensemble for cool-season precipitation in the Colorado Rocky Mountains with a set of high-resolution regional climate model simulations. We have used the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) to simulate the periods 1990-2000, 2025-2035, and 2070-2080 on a 4km grid. These simulations show that the broad patterns of change depicted in CESM are inherited by the high-resolution simulations; however, the differences in the height and location of the mountains in the WRF simulation, relative to the CESM simulation, means that the location and magnitude of the precipitation changes are very different. We further show that high-resolution simulations with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research model (ICAR) predict a similar spatial pattern in the change signal as WRF for these ensemble members. We then use ICAR to examine the rest of the CESM Large Ensemble as well as the uncertainty in the regional climate model due to the choice of physics parameterizations.

  15. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick Arthur

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies...

  16. Advancing Uncertainty: Untangling and Discerning Related Concepts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janice Penrod

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Methods of advancing concepts within the qualitative paradigm have been developed and articulated. In this section, I describe methodological perspectives of a project designed to advance the concept of uncertainty using multiple qualitative methods. Through a series of earlier studies, the concept of uncertainty arose repeatedly in varied contexts, working its way into prominence, and warranting further investigation. Processes of advanced concept analysis were used to initiate the formal investigation into the meaning of the concept. Through concept analysis, the concept was deconstructed to identify conceptual components and gaps in understanding. Using this skeletal framework of the concept identified through concept analysis, subsequent studies were carried out to add ‘flesh’ to the concept. First, a concept refinement using the literature as data was completed. Findings revealed that the current state of the concept of uncertainty failed to incorporate what was known of the lived experience. Therefore, using interview techniques as the primary data source, a phenomenological study of uncertainty among caregivers was conducted. Incorporating the findings of the phenomenology, the skeletal framework of the concept was further fleshed out using techniques of concept correction to produce a more mature conceptualization of uncertainty. In this section, I describe the flow of this qualitative project investigating the concept of uncertainty, with special emphasis on a particular threat to validity (called conceptual tunnel vision that was identified and addressed during the phases of concept correction. Though in this article I employ a study of uncertainty for illustration, limited substantive findings regarding uncertainty are presented to retain a clear focus on the methodological issues.

  17. Cooling water distribution system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orr, Richard

    1994-01-01

    A passive containment cooling system for a nuclear reactor containment vessel. Disclosed is a cooling water distribution system for introducing cooling water by gravity uniformly over the outer surface of a steel containment vessel using an interconnected series of radial guide elements, a plurality of circumferential collector elements and collector boxes to collect and feed the cooling water into distribution channels extending along the curved surface of the steel containment vessel. The cooling water is uniformly distributed over the curved surface by a plurality of weirs in the distribution channels.

  18. Cooling tower calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simonkova, J.

    1988-01-01

    The problems are summed up of the dynamic calculation of cooling towers with forced and natural air draft. The quantities and relations are given characterizing the simultaneous exchange of momentum, heat and mass in evaporative water cooling by atmospheric air in the packings of cooling towers. The method of solution is clarified in the calculation of evaporation criteria and thermal characteristics of countercurrent and cross current cooling systems. The procedure is demonstrated of the calculation of cooling towers, and correction curves and the effect assessed of the operating mode at constant air number or constant outlet air volume flow on their course in ventilator cooling towers. In cooling towers with the natural air draft the flow unevenness is assessed of water and air relative to its effect on the resulting cooling efficiency of the towers. The calculation is demonstrated of thermal and resistance response curves and cooling curves of hydraulically unevenly loaded towers owing to the water flow rate parameter graded radially by 20% along the cross-section of the packing. Flow rate unevenness of air due to wind impact on the outlet air flow from the tower significantly affects the temperatures of cooled water in natural air draft cooling towers of a design with lower demands on aerodynamics, as early as at wind velocity of 2 m.s -1 as was demonstrated on a concrete example. (author). 11 figs., 10 refs

  19. DS02 uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaul, Dean C.; Egbert, Stephen D.; Woolson, William A.

    2005-01-01

    In order to avoid the pitfalls that so discredited DS86 and its uncertainty estimates, and to provide DS02 uncertainties that are both defensible and credible, this report not only presents the ensemble uncertainties assembled from uncertainties in individual computational elements and radiation dose components but also describes how these relate to comparisons between observed and computed quantities at critical intervals in the computational process. These comparisons include those between observed and calculated radiation free-field components, where observations include thermal- and fast-neutron activation and gamma-ray thermoluminescence, which are relevant to the estimated systematic uncertainty for DS02. The comparisons also include those between calculated and observed survivor shielding, where the observations consist of biodosimetric measurements for individual survivors, which are relevant to the estimated random uncertainty for DS02. (J.P.N.)

  20. Model uncertainty and probability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parry, G.W.

    1994-01-01

    This paper discusses the issue of model uncertainty. The use of probability as a measure of an analyst's uncertainty as well as a means of describing random processes has caused some confusion, even though the two uses are representing different types of uncertainty with respect to modeling a system. The importance of maintaining the distinction between the two types is illustrated with a simple example

  1. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Kanal, LN

    1986-01-01

    How to deal with uncertainty is a subject of much controversy in Artificial Intelligence. This volume brings together a wide range of perspectives on uncertainty, many of the contributors being the principal proponents in the controversy.Some of the notable issues which emerge from these papers revolve around an interval-based calculus of uncertainty, the Dempster-Shafer Theory, and probability as the best numeric model for uncertainty. There remain strong dissenting opinions not only about probability but even about the utility of any numeric method in this context.

  2. Uncertainties in hydrogen combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stamps, D.W.; Wong, C.C.; Nelson, L.S.

    1988-01-01

    Three important areas of hydrogen combustion with uncertainties are identified: high-temperature combustion, flame acceleration and deflagration-to-detonation transition, and aerosol resuspension during hydrogen combustion. The uncertainties associated with high-temperature combustion may affect at least three different accident scenarios: the in-cavity oxidation of combustible gases produced by core-concrete interactions, the direct containment heating hydrogen problem, and the possibility of local detonations. How these uncertainties may affect the sequence of various accident scenarios is discussed and recommendations are made to reduce these uncertainties. 40 references

  3. Uncertainty in hydrological signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, Hilary; Westerberg, Ida

    2015-04-01

    Information that summarises the hydrological behaviour or flow regime of a catchment is essential for comparing responses of different catchments to understand catchment organisation and similarity, and for many other modelling and water-management applications. Such information types derived as an index value from observed data are known as hydrological signatures, and can include descriptors of high flows (e.g. mean annual flood), low flows (e.g. mean annual low flow, recession shape), the flow variability, flow duration curve, and runoff ratio. Because the hydrological signatures are calculated from observed data such as rainfall and flow records, they are affected by uncertainty in those data. Subjective choices in the method used to calculate the signatures create a further source of uncertainty. Uncertainties in the signatures may affect our ability to compare different locations, to detect changes, or to compare future water resource management scenarios. The aim of this study was to contribute to the hydrological community's awareness and knowledge of data uncertainty in hydrological signatures, including typical sources, magnitude and methods for its assessment. We proposed a generally applicable method to calculate these uncertainties based on Monte Carlo sampling and demonstrated it for a variety of commonly used signatures. The study was made for two data rich catchments, the 50 km2 Mahurangi catchment in New Zealand and the 135 km2 Brue catchment in the UK. For rainfall data the uncertainty sources included point measurement uncertainty, the number of gauges used in calculation of the catchment spatial average, and uncertainties relating to lack of quality control. For flow data the uncertainty sources included uncertainties in stage/discharge measurement and in the approximation of the true stage-discharge relation by a rating curve. The resulting uncertainties were compared across the different signatures and catchments, to quantify uncertainty

  4. Laser cooling of solids

    CERN Document Server

    Petrushkin, S V

    2009-01-01

    Laser cooling is an important emerging technology in such areas as the cooling of semiconductors. The book examines and suggests solutions for a range of problems in the development of miniature solid-state laser refrigerators, self-cooling solid-state lasers and optical echo-processors. It begins by looking at the basic theory of laser cooling before considering such topics as self-cooling of active elements of solid-state lasers, laser cooling of solid-state information media of optical echo-processors, and problems of cooling solid-state quantum processors. Laser Cooling of Solids is an important contribution to the development of compact laser-powered cryogenic refrigerators, both for the academic community and those in the microelectronics and other industries. Provides a timely review of this promising field of research and discusses the fundamentals and theory of laser cooling Particular attention is given to the physics of cooling processes and the mathematical description of these processes Reviews p...

  5. Emergency reactor cooling device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arakawa, Ken.

    1993-01-01

    An emergency nuclear reactor cooling device comprises a water reservoir, emergency core cooling water pipelines having one end connected to a water feeding sparger, fire extinguishing facility pipelines, cooling water pressurizing pumps, a diesel driving machine for driving the pumps and a battery. In a water reservoir, cooling water is stored by an amount required for cooling the reactor upon emergency and for fire extinguishing, and fire extinguishing facility pipelines connecting the water reservoir and the fire extinguishing facility are in communication with the emergency core cooling water pipelines connected to the water feeding sparger by system connection pipelines. Pumps are operated by a diesel power generator to introduce cooling water from the reservoir to the emergency core cooling water pipelines. Then, even in a case where AC electric power source is entirely lost and the emergency core cooling system can not be used, the diesel driving machine is operated using an exclusive battery, thereby enabling to inject cooling water from the water reservoir to a reactor pressure vessel and a reactor container by the diesel drive pump. (N.H.)

  6. Analysis of uncertainty in modeling perceived risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Melnyk, R.; Sandquist, G.M.

    2005-01-01

    Expanding on a mathematical model developed for quantifying and assessing perceived risks, the distribution functions, variances, and uncertainties associated with estimating the model parameters are quantified. The analytical model permits the identification and assignment of any number of quantifiable risk perception factors that can be incorporated within standard risk methodology. Those risk perception factors associated with major technical issues are modeled using lognormal probability density functions to span the potentially large uncertainty variations associated with these risk perceptions. The model quantifies the logic of public risk perception and provides an effective means for measuring and responding to perceived risks. (authors)

  7. Uncertainty in social dilemmas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwaadsteniet, Erik Willem de

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation focuses on social dilemmas, and more specifically, on environmental uncertainty in these dilemmas. Real-life social dilemma situations are often characterized by uncertainty. For example, fishermen mostly do not know the exact size of the fish population (i.e., resource size

  8. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  9. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-01-01

    Uncertainties of computer results are of primary interest in applications such as high-level waste (HLW) repository performance assessment in which experimental validation is not possible or practical. This work presents an alternate deterministic approach for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs required for conventional statistical analysis. 7 refs., 1 fig

  10. Uncertainty and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Depres, B.; Dossantos-Uzarralde, P.

    2009-01-01

    More than 150 researchers and engineers from universities and the industrial world met to discuss on the new methodologies developed around assessing uncertainty. About 20 papers were presented and the main topics were: methods to study the propagation of uncertainties, sensitivity analysis, nuclear data covariances or multi-parameter optimisation. This report gathers the contributions of CEA researchers and engineers

  11. Integrated cooling system for the Mirror Fusion Test Facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, B.; Chang, Y.

    1979-01-01

    The MFTF components that require water cooling include the neutral beam dumps, ion dumps, plasma dumps, baffle plates, magnet liners, gas boxes, streaming guns, and the neutral beam injectors. A total heat load of nearly 500 MW for 0.5 s dissipates over 4-min intervals. A steady-flow, closed-loop system is utilized. The design of the cooling system assumes that all components require cooling simultaneously. The cooling system contains process instrumentation for loop control. Alarms and safety interlocks are incorporated for the safe operation of the system

  12. Conditional uncertainty principle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

    2018-04-01

    We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

  13. Physical Uncertainty Bounds (PUB)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaughan, Diane Elizabeth [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Preston, Dean L. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-03-19

    This paper introduces and motivates the need for a new methodology for determining upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulations of engineered systems due to limited fidelity in the composite continuum-level physics models needed to simulate the systems. We show that traditional uncertainty quantification methods provide, at best, a lower bound on this uncertainty. We propose to obtain bounds on the simulation uncertainties by first determining bounds on the physical quantities or processes relevant to system performance. By bounding these physics processes, as opposed to carrying out statistical analyses of the parameter sets of specific physics models or simply switching out the available physics models, one can obtain upper bounds on the uncertainties in simulated quantities of interest.

  14. Measurement uncertainty and probability

    CERN Document Server

    Willink, Robin

    2013-01-01

    A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.

  15. Radiant Floor Cooling Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Bjarne W.

    2008-01-01

    In many countries, hydronic radiant floor systems are widely used for heating all types of buildings such as residential, churches, gymnasiums, hospitals, hangars, storage buildings, industrial buildings, and smaller offices. However, few systems are used for cooling.This article describes a floor...... cooling system that includes such considerations as thermal comfort of the occupants, which design parameters will influence the cooling capacity and how the system should be controlled. Examples of applications are presented....

  16. The cooling of particle beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sessler, A.M.

    1994-10-01

    A review is given of the various methods which can be employed for cooling particle beams. These methods include radiation damping, stimulated radiation damping, ionization cooling, stochastic cooling, electron cooling, laser cooling, and laser cooling with beam coupling. Laser Cooling has provided beams of the lowest temperatures, namely 1 mK, but only for ions and only for the longitudinal temperature. Recent theoretical work has suggested how laser cooling, with the coupling of beam motion, can be used to reduce the ion beam temperature in all three directions. The majority of this paper is devoted to describing laser cooling and laser cooling with beam coupling

  17. Turbine airfoil cooling system with cooling systems using high and low pressure cooling fluids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marsh, Jan H.; Messmann, Stephen John; Scribner, Carmen Andrew

    2017-10-25

    A turbine airfoil cooling system including a low pressure cooling system and a high pressure cooling system for a turbine airfoil of a gas turbine engine is disclosed. In at least one embodiment, the low pressure cooling system may be an ambient air cooling system, and the high pressure cooling system may be a compressor bleed air cooling system. In at least one embodiment, the compressor bleed air cooling system in communication with a high pressure subsystem that may be a snubber cooling system positioned within a snubber. A delivery system including a movable air supply tube may be used to separate the low and high pressure cooling subsystems. The delivery system may enable high pressure cooling air to be passed to the snubber cooling system separate from low pressure cooling fluid supplied by the low pressure cooling system to other portions of the turbine airfoil cooling system.

  18. Power electronics cooling apparatus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanger, Philip Albert; Lindberg, Frank A.; Garcen, Walter

    2000-01-01

    A semiconductor cooling arrangement wherein a semiconductor is affixed to a thermally and electrically conducting carrier such as by brazing. The coefficient of thermal expansion of the semiconductor and carrier are closely matched to one another so that during operation they will not be overstressed mechanically due to thermal cycling. Electrical connection is made to the semiconductor and carrier, and a porous metal heat exchanger is thermally connected to the carrier. The heat exchanger is positioned within an electrically insulating cooling assembly having cooling oil flowing therethrough. The arrangement is particularly well adapted for the cooling of high power switching elements in a power bridge.

  19. Semioptimal practicable algorithmic cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elias, Yuval; Mor, Tal; Weinstein, Yossi

    2011-01-01

    Algorithmic cooling (AC) of spins applies entropy manipulation algorithms in open spin systems in order to cool spins far beyond Shannon's entropy bound. Algorithmic cooling of nuclear spins was demonstrated experimentally and may contribute to nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Several cooling algorithms were suggested in recent years, including practicable algorithmic cooling (PAC) and exhaustive AC. Practicable algorithms have simple implementations, yet their level of cooling is far from optimal; exhaustive algorithms, on the other hand, cool much better, and some even reach (asymptotically) an optimal level of cooling, but they are not practicable. We introduce here semioptimal practicable AC (SOPAC), wherein a few cycles (typically two to six) are performed at each recursive level. Two classes of SOPAC algorithms are proposed and analyzed. Both attain cooling levels significantly better than PAC and are much more efficient than the exhaustive algorithms. These algorithms are shown to bridge the gap between PAC and exhaustive AC. In addition, we calculated the number of spins required by SOPAC in order to purify qubits for quantum computation. As few as 12 and 7 spins are required (in an ideal scenario) to yield a mildly pure spin (60% polarized) from initial polarizations of 1% and 10%, respectively. In the latter case, about five more spins are sufficient to produce a highly pure spin (99.99% polarized), which could be relevant for fault-tolerant quantum computing.

  20. Achieving 95% probability level using best estimate codes and the code scaling, applicability and uncertainty (CSAU) [Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty] methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, G.E.; Boyack, B.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Griffith, P.; Katsma, K.R.; Lellouche, G.S.; Rohatgi, U.S.; Wulff, W.; Zuber, N.

    1988-01-01

    Issue of a revised rule for loss of coolant accident/emergency core cooling system (LOCA/ECCS) analysis of light water reactors will allow the use of best estimate (BE) computer codes in safety analysis, with uncertainty analysis. This paper describes a systematic methodology, CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty), which will provide uncertainty bounds in a cost effective, auditable, rational and practical manner. 8 figs., 2 tabs

  1. Uncertainty Propagation in OMFIT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Sterling; Meneghini, Orso; Sung, Choongki

    2017-10-01

    A rigorous comparison of power balance fluxes and turbulent model fluxes requires the propagation of uncertainties in the kinetic profiles and their derivatives. Making extensive use of the python uncertainties package, the OMFIT framework has been used to propagate covariant uncertainties to provide an uncertainty in the power balance calculation from the ONETWO code, as well as through the turbulent fluxes calculated by the TGLF code. The covariant uncertainties arise from fitting 1D (constant on flux surface) density and temperature profiles and associated random errors with parameterized functions such as a modified tanh. The power balance and model fluxes can then be compared with quantification of the uncertainties. No effort is made at propagating systematic errors. A case study will be shown for the effects of resonant magnetic perturbations on the kinetic profiles and fluxes at the top of the pedestal. A separate attempt at modeling the random errors with Monte Carlo sampling will be compared to the method of propagating the fitting function parameter covariant uncertainties. Work supported by US DOE under DE-FC02-04ER54698, DE-FG2-95ER-54309, DE-SC 0012656.

  2. Verification of uncertainty budgets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heydorn, Kaj; Madsen, B.S.

    2005-01-01

    , and therefore it is essential that the applicability of the overall uncertainty budget to actual measurement results be verified on the basis of current experimental data. This should be carried out by replicate analysis of samples taken in accordance with the definition of the measurand, but representing...... the full range of matrices and concentrations for which the budget is assumed to be valid. In this way the assumptions made in the uncertainty budget can be experimentally verified, both as regards sources of variability that are assumed negligible, and dominant uncertainty components. Agreement between...

  3. Development of a Dynamic Lidar Uncertainty Framework

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, Jennifer [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Clifton, Andrew [WindForS; Bonin, Timothy [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Choukulkar, Aditya [CIRES/NOAA ESRL; Brewer, W. Alan [NOAA ESRL; Delgado, Ruben [University of Maryland Baltimore County

    2017-08-07

    As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote-sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote-sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote-sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards for quantifying remote sensing device uncertainty for power performance testing consider uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device and are generally fixed, leading to climatic uncertainty values that apply to the entire measurement campaign. However, real-world experience and a consideration of the fundamentals of the measurement process have shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we describe the development of a new dynamic lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from a field measurement site to assess the ability of the framework to predict

  4. Nuclear data uncertainties for local power densities in the Martin-Hoogenboom benchmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van der Marck, S.C.; Rochman, D.A.

    2013-01-01

    The recently developed method of fast Total Monte Carlo to propagate nuclear data uncertainties was applied to the Martin-Hoogenboom benchmark. This Martin- Hoogenboom benchmark prescribes that one calculates local pin powers (of light water cooled reactor) with a statistical uncertainty lower than 1% everywhere. Here we report, for the first time, an estimate of the nuclear data uncertainties for these local pin powers. For each of the more than 6 million local power tallies, the uncertainty due to nuclear data uncertainties was calculated, based on random variation of data for 235 U, 238 U, 239 Pu and H in H 2 O thermal scattering. In the center of the core region, the nuclear data uncertainty is 0.9%. Towards the edges of the core, this uncertainty increases to roughly 3%. The nuclear data uncertainties have been shown to be larger than the statistical uncertainties that the benchmark prescribes

  5. Cooling of electronic equipment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    A. Kristensen, Anders Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    Cooling of electronic equipment is studied. The design size of electronic equipment decrease causing the thermal density to increase. This affect the cooling which can cause for example failures of critical components due to overheating or thermal induced stresses. Initially a pin fin heat sink...

  6. Solar absorption cooling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kim, D.S.

    2007-01-01

    As the world concerns more and more on global climate changes and depleting energy resources, solar cooling technology receives increasing interests from the public as an environment-friendly and sustainable alternative. However, making a competitive solar cooling machine for the market still

  7. Gas-cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vakilian, M.

    1977-05-01

    The present study is the second part of a general survey of Gas Cooled Reactors (GCRs). In this part, the course of development, overall performance and present development status of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTCRs) and advances of HTGR systems are reviewed. (author)

  8. Coherent electron cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Litvinenko,V.

    2009-05-04

    Cooling intense high-energy hadron beams remains a major challenge in modern accelerator physics. Synchrotron radiation is still too feeble, while the efficiency of two other cooling methods, stochastic and electron, falls rapidly either at high bunch intensities (i.e. stochastic of protons) or at high energies (e-cooling). In this talk a specific scheme of a unique cooling technique, Coherent Electron Cooling, will be discussed. The idea of coherent electron cooling using electron beam instabilities was suggested by Derbenev in the early 1980s, but the scheme presented in this talk, with cooling times under an hour for 7 TeV protons in the LHC, would be possible only with present-day accelerator technology. This talk will discuss the principles and the main limitations of the Coherent Electron Cooling process. The talk will describe the main system components, based on a high-gain free electron laser driven by an energy recovery linac, and will present some numerical examples for ions and protons in RHIC and the LHC and for electron-hadron options for these colliders. BNL plans a demonstration of the idea in the near future.

  9. The final cool down

    CERN Multimedia

    Thursday 29th May, the cool-down of the final sector (sector 4-5) of LHC has begun, one week after the start of the cool-down of sector 1-2. It will take five weeks for the sectors to be cooled from room temperature to 5 K and a further two weeks to complete the cool down to 1.9 K and the commissioning of cryogenic instrumentation, as well as to fine tune the cryogenic plants and the cooling loops of cryostats.Nearly a year and half has passed since sector 7-8 was cooled for the first time in January 2007. For Laurent Tavian, AT/CRG Group Leader, reaching the final phase of the cool down is an important milestone, confirming the basic design of the cryogenic system and the ability to operate complete sectors. “All the sectors have to operate at the same time otherwise we cannot inject the beam into the machine. The stability and reliability of the cryogenic system and its utilities are now very important. That will be the new challenge for the coming months,” he explains. The status of the cool down of ...

  10. Assignment of uncertainties to scientific data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Froehner, F.H.

    1994-01-01

    Long-standing problems of uncertainty assignment to scientific data came into a sharp focus in recent years when uncertainty information ('covariance files') had to be added to application-oriented large libraries of evaluated nuclear data such as ENDF and JEF. Question arouse about the best way to express uncertainties, the meaning of statistical and systematic errors, the origin of correlation and construction of covariance matrices, the combination of uncertain data from different sources, the general usefulness of results that are strictly valid only for Gaussian or only for linear statistical models, etc. Conventional statistical theory is often unable to give unambiguous answers, and tends to fail when statistics is bad so that prior information becomes crucial. Modern probability theory, on the other hand, incorporating decision information becomes group-theoretic results, is shown to provide straight and unique answers to such questions, and to deal easily with prior information and small samples. (author). 10 refs

  11. Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: performance of grizzly bear management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Artelle, Kyle A; Anderson, Sean C; Cooper, Andrew B; Paquet, Paul C; Reynolds, John D; Darimont, Chris T

    2013-01-01

    Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years) examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty) revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.

  12. Confronting uncertainty in wildlife management: performance of grizzly bear management.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyle A Artelle

    Full Text Available Scientific management of wildlife requires confronting the complexities of natural and social systems. Uncertainty poses a central problem. Whereas the importance of considering uncertainty has been widely discussed, studies of the effects of unaddressed uncertainty on real management systems have been rare. We examined the effects of outcome uncertainty and components of biological uncertainty on hunt management performance, illustrated with grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis in British Columbia, Canada. We found that both forms of uncertainty can have serious impacts on management performance. Outcome uncertainty alone--discrepancy between expected and realized mortality levels--led to excess mortality in 19% of cases (population-years examined. Accounting for uncertainty around estimated biological parameters (i.e., biological uncertainty revealed that excess mortality might have occurred in up to 70% of cases. We offer a general method for identifying targets for exploited species that incorporates uncertainty and maintains the probability of exceeding mortality limits below specified thresholds. Setting targets in our focal system using this method at thresholds of 25% and 5% probability of overmortality would require average target mortality reductions of 47% and 81%, respectively. Application of our transparent and generalizable framework to this or other systems could improve management performance in the presence of uncertainty.

  13. Reactor core cooling device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobayashi, Masahiro.

    1986-01-01

    Purpose: To safely and effectively cool down the reactor core after it has been shut down but is still hot due to after-heat. Constitution: Since the coolant extraction nozzle is situated at a location higher than the coolant injection nozzle, the coolant sprayed from the nozzle, is free from sucking immediately from the extraction nozzle and is therefore used effectively to cool the reactor core. As all the portions from the top to the bottom of the reactor are cooled simultaneously, the efficiency of the reactor cooling process is increased. Since the coolant extraction nozzle can be installed at a point considerably higher than the coolant injection nozzle, the distance from the coolant surface to the point of the coolant extraction nozzle can be made large, preventing cavitation near the coolant extraction nozzle. Therefore, without increasing the capacity of the heat exchanger, the reactor can be cooled down after a shutdown safely and efficiently. (Kawakami, Y.)

  14. Stochastic cooling at Fermilab

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marriner, J.

    1986-08-01

    The topics discussed are the stochastic cooling systems in use at Fermilab and some of the techniques that have been employed to meet the particular requirements of the anti-proton source. Stochastic cooling at Fermilab became of paramount importance about 5 years ago when the anti-proton source group at Fermilab abandoned the electron cooling ring in favor of a high flux anti-proton source which relied solely on stochastic cooling to achieve the phase space densities necessary for colliding proton and anti-proton beams. The Fermilab systems have constituted a substantial advance in the techniques of cooling including: large pickup arrays operating at microwave frequencies, extensive use of cryogenic techniques to reduce thermal noise, super-conducting notch filters, and the development of tools for controlling and for accurately phasing the system

  15. Evaluating prediction uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKay, M.D.

    1995-03-01

    The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

  16. Uncertainty in oil projects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Limperopoulos, G.J.

    1995-01-01

    This report presents an oil project valuation under uncertainty by means of two well-known financial techniques: The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and The Black-Scholes Option Pricing Formula. CAPM gives a linear positive relationship between expected rate of return and risk but does not take into consideration the aspect of flexibility which is crucial for an irreversible investment as an oil price is. Introduction of investment decision flexibility by using real options can increase the oil project value substantially. Some simple tests for the importance of uncertainty in stock market for oil investments are performed. Uncertainty in stock returns is correlated with aggregate product market uncertainty according to Pindyck (1991). The results of the tests are not satisfactory due to the short data series but introducing two other explanatory variables the interest rate and Gross Domestic Product make the situation better. 36 refs., 18 figs., 6 tabs

  17. Corporate liquidity and dividend policy under uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Koussis, Nicos; Martzoukos, Spiros H.; Trigeorgis, Lenos

    2016-01-01

    We examine optimal liquidity (retained earnings) and dividend choice incorporating debt financing with risk of default and bankruptcy costs as well as growth options under revenue uncertainty. We revisit the conditions for dividend policy irrelevancy and the broader role of retained earnings and dividends. Retained earnings have a net positive impact on firm value in the presence of growth options, high external financing costs and low default risk. High levels of retained earnings enhance de...

  18. Quantum Action Principle with Generalized Uncertainty Principle

    OpenAIRE

    Gu, Jie

    2013-01-01

    One of the common features in all promising candidates of quantum gravity is the existence of a minimal length scale, which naturally emerges with a generalized uncertainty principle, or equivalently a modified commutation relation. Schwinger's quantum action principle was modified to incorporate this modification, and was applied to the calculation of the kernel of a free particle, partly recovering the result previously studied using path integral.

  19. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  20. Mechanics and uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Lemaire, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    Science is a quest for certainty, but lack of certainty is the driving force behind all of its endeavors. This book, specifically, examines the uncertainty of technological and industrial science. Uncertainty and Mechanics studies the concepts of mechanical design in an uncertain setting and explains engineering techniques for inventing cost-effective products. Though it references practical applications, this is a book about ideas and potential advances in mechanical science.

  1. Uncertainty: lotteries and risk

    OpenAIRE

    Ávalos, Eloy

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we develop the theory of uncertainty in a context where the risks assumed by the individual are measurable and manageable. We primarily use the definition of lottery to formulate the axioms of the individual's preferences, and its representation through the utility function von Neumann - Morgenstern. We study the expected utility theorem and its properties, the paradoxes of choice under uncertainty and finally the measures of risk aversion with monetary lotteries.

  2. Uncertainty calculations made easier

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hogenbirk, A.

    1994-07-01

    The results are presented of a neutron cross section sensitivity/uncertainty analysis performed in a complicated 2D model of the NET shielding blanket design inside the ITER torus design, surrounded by the cryostat/biological shield as planned for ITER. The calculations were performed with a code system developed at ECN Petten, with which sensitivity/uncertainty calculations become relatively simple. In order to check the deterministic neutron transport calculations (performed with DORT), calculations were also performed with the Monte Carlo code MCNP. Care was taken to model the 2.0 cm wide gaps between two blanket segments, as the neutron flux behind the vacuum vessel is largely determined by neutrons streaming through these gaps. The resulting neutron flux spectra are in excellent agreement up to the end of the cryostat. It is noted, that at this position the attenuation of the neutron flux is about 1 l orders of magnitude. The uncertainty in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the vacuum vessel and at the beginning of the cryostat was determined in the calculations. The uncertainty appears to be strongly dependent on the exact geometry: if the gaps are filled with stainless steel, the neutron spectrum changes strongly, which results in an uncertainty of 70% in the energy integrated flux at the beginning of the cryostat in the no-gap-geometry, compared to an uncertainty of only 5% in the gap-geometry. Therefore, it is essential to take into account the exact geometry in sensitivity/uncertainty calculations. Furthermore, this study shows that an improvement of the covariance data is urgently needed in order to obtain reliable estimates of the uncertainties in response parameters in neutron transport calculations. (orig./GL)

  3. Effect of closed loop cooling water transit time on containment cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, R.P.; Vossahlik, J.E.; Goodwin, E.F.

    1996-01-01

    Long term containment cooling analyses in nuclear plant systems are usually conducted assuming a quasi steady-state process, that is, a steady state evaluation of the cooling system is completed for each calculational step. In reality, fluid transport in the system, and heat addition to system components may affect the heat removal rate of the system. Transient effects occurring during system startup may affect the maximum temperatures experienced in the system. It is important to ensure that such transient effects do not affect operation of the system (e.g., cause a high temperature trip). To evaluate the effect of fluid transit delays, a closed loop cooling water system model has been developed that incorporates the fluid transport times when determining the closed loop cooling system performance. This paper describes the closed loop cooling system model as implemented in the CONTEMPT-LT/028 code. The evaluation of the transient temperature response of the closed loop cooling system using the model is described. The paper also describes the effect of fluid transit time on the overall containment cooling performance

  4. Cooled-Spool Piston Compressor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Brian G.

    1994-01-01

    Proposed cooled-spool piston compressor driven by hydraulic power and features internal cooling of piston by flowing hydraulic fluid to limit temperature of compressed gas. Provides sufficient cooling for higher compression ratios or reactive gases. Unlike conventional piston compressors, all parts of compressed gas lie at all times within relatively short distance of cooled surface so that gas cooled more effectively.

  5. Liquid metal cooled fast breeder nuclear reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thatcher, G.; Mitchell, A.J.

    1981-01-01

    Fuel sub-assemblies for liquid metal-cooled fast breeder reactors are described which each incorporate a fluid flow control valve for regulating the rate of flow through the sub-assembly. These small electro-magnetic valves seek to maintain the outlet coolant temperature of at least some of the breeder sub-assemblies substantially constant throughout the life of the fuel assembly without severely pressurising the sub-assembly. (U.K.)

  6. Justification for recommended uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pronyaev, V.G.; Badikov, S.A.; Carlson, A.D.

    2007-01-01

    The uncertainties obtained in an earlier standards evaluation were considered to be unrealistically low by experts of the US Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG). Therefore, the CSEWG Standards Subcommittee replaced the covariance matrices of evaluated uncertainties by expanded percentage errors that were assigned to the data over wide energy groups. There are a number of reasons that might lead to low uncertainties of the evaluated data: Underestimation of the correlations existing between the results of different measurements; The presence of unrecognized systematic uncertainties in the experimental data can lead to biases in the evaluated data as well as to underestimations of the resulting uncertainties; Uncertainties for correlated data cannot only be characterized by percentage uncertainties or variances. Covariances between evaluated value at 0.2 MeV and other points obtained in model (RAC R matrix and PADE2 analytical expansion) and non-model (GMA) fits of the 6 Li(n,t) TEST1 data and the correlation coefficients are presented and covariances between the evaluated value at 0.045 MeV and other points (along the line or column of the matrix) as obtained in EDA and RAC R matrix fits of the data available for reactions that pass through the formation of the 7 Li system are discussed. The GMA fit with the GMA database is shown for comparison. The following diagrams are discussed: Percentage uncertainties of the evaluated cross section for the 6 Li(n,t) reaction and the for the 235 U(n,f) reaction; estimation given by CSEWG experts; GMA result with full GMA database, including experimental data for the 6 Li(n,t), 6 Li(n,n) and 6 Li(n,total) reactions; uncertainties in the GMA combined fit for the standards; EDA and RAC R matrix results, respectively. Uncertainties of absolute and 252 Cf fission spectrum averaged cross section measurements, and deviations between measured and evaluated values for 235 U(n,f) cross-sections in the neutron energy range 1

  7. Robustness of ancestral sequence reconstruction to phylogenetic uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson-Smith, Victor; Kolaczkowski, Bryan; Thornton, Joseph W

    2010-09-01

    Ancestral sequence reconstruction (ASR) is widely used to formulate and test hypotheses about the sequences, functions, and structures of ancient genes. Ancestral sequences are usually inferred from an alignment of extant sequences using a maximum likelihood (ML) phylogenetic algorithm, which calculates the most likely ancestral sequence assuming a probabilistic model of sequence evolution and a specific phylogeny--typically the tree with the ML. The true phylogeny is seldom known with certainty, however. ML methods ignore this uncertainty, whereas Bayesian methods incorporate it by integrating the likelihood of each ancestral state over a distribution of possible trees. It is not known whether Bayesian approaches to phylogenetic uncertainty improve the accuracy of inferred ancestral sequences. Here, we use simulation-based experiments under both simplified and empirically derived conditions to compare the accuracy of ASR carried out using ML and Bayesian approaches. We show that incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty by integrating over topologies very rarely changes the inferred ancestral state and does not improve the accuracy of the reconstructed ancestral sequence. Ancestral state reconstructions are robust to uncertainty about the underlying tree because the conditions that produce phylogenetic uncertainty also make the ancestral state identical across plausible trees; conversely, the conditions under which different phylogenies yield different inferred ancestral states produce little or no ambiguity about the true phylogeny. Our results suggest that ML can produce accurate ASRs, even in the face of phylogenetic uncertainty. Using Bayesian integration to incorporate this uncertainty is neither necessary nor beneficial.

  8. Second sector cool down

    CERN Multimedia

    2007-01-01

    At the beginning of July, cool-down is starting in the second LHC sector, sector 4-5. The cool down of sector 4-5 may occasionally generate mist at Point 4, like that produced last January (photo) during the cool-down of sector 7-8.Things are getting colder in the LHC. Sector 7-8 has been kept at 1.9 K for three weeks with excellent stability (see Bulletin No. 16-17 of 16 April 2007). The electrical tests in this sector have got opt to a successful start. At the beginning of July the cryogenic teams started to cool a second sector, sector 4-5. At Point 4 in Echenevex, where one of the LHC’s cryogenic plants is located, preparations for the first phase of the cool-down are underway. During this phase, the sector will first be cooled to 80 K (-193°C), the temperature of liquid nitrogen. As for the first sector, 1200 tonnes of liquid nitrogen will be used for the cool-down. In fact, the nitrogen circulates only at the surface in the ...

  9. Dry well cooling device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, Hiroyuki.

    1997-01-01

    A plurality of blowing ports with introduction units are disposed to a plurality of ducts in a dry well, and a cooling unit comprising a cooler, a blower and an isolating valve is disposed outside of the dry well. Cooling air and the atmosphere in the dry well are mixed to form a cooling gas and blown into the dry well to control the temperature. Since the cooling unit is disposed outside of the dry well, the maintenance of the cooling unit can be performed even during the plant operation. In addition, since dampers opened/closed depending on the temperature of the atmosphere are disposed to the introduction units for controlling the temperature of the cooling gas, the temperature of the atmosphere in the dry well can be set to a predetermined level rapidly. Since an axial flow blower is used as the blower of the cooling unit, it can be contained in a ventilation cylinder. Then, the atmosphere in the dry well flowing in the ventilation cylinder can be prevented from leaking to the outside. (N.H.)

  10. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Villemereuil Pierre de

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small. Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible

  11. Bayesian models for comparative analysis integrating phylogenetic uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Uncertainty in comparative analyses can come from at least two sources: a) phylogenetic uncertainty in the tree topology or branch lengths, and b) uncertainty due to intraspecific variation in trait values, either due to measurement error or natural individual variation. Most phylogenetic comparative methods do not account for such uncertainties. Not accounting for these sources of uncertainty leads to false perceptions of precision (confidence intervals will be too narrow) and inflated significance in hypothesis testing (e.g. p-values will be too small). Although there is some application-specific software for fitting Bayesian models accounting for phylogenetic error, more general and flexible software is desirable. Methods We developed models to directly incorporate phylogenetic uncertainty into a range of analyses that biologists commonly perform, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo analyses. Results We demonstrate applications in linear regression, quantification of phylogenetic signal, and measurement error models. Phylogenetic uncertainty was incorporated by applying a prior distribution for the phylogeny, where this distribution consisted of the posterior tree sets from Bayesian phylogenetic tree estimation programs. The models were analysed using simulated data sets, and applied to a real data set on plant traits, from rainforest plant species in Northern Australia. Analyses were performed using the free and open source software OpenBUGS and JAGS. Conclusions Incorporating phylogenetic uncertainty through an empirical prior distribution of trees leads to more precise estimation of regression model parameters than using a single consensus tree and enables a more realistic estimation of confidence intervals. In addition, models incorporating measurement errors and/or individual variation, in one or both variables, are easily formulated in the Bayesian framework. We show that BUGS is a useful, flexible general purpose tool for

  12. Cooling towers: a bibliography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Whitson, M.O.

    1981-02-01

    This bibliography cites 300 selected references containing information on various aspects of large cooling tower technology, including design, construction, operation, performance, economics, and environmental effects. The towers considered include natural-draft and mechanical-draft types employing wet, dry, or combination wet-dry cooling. A few references deal with alternative cooling methods, principally ponds or spray canals. The citations were compiled for the DOE Energy Information Data Base (EDB) covering the period January to December 1980. The references are to reports from the Department of Energy and its contractors, reports from other government or private organizations, and journal articles, books, conference papers, and monographs from US originators

  13. History of nuclear cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuerti, M.

    1998-01-01

    The historical development of producing extreme low temperatures by magnetic techniques is overviewed. With electron spin methods, temperatures down to 1 mK can be achieved. With nuclear spins theoretically 10 -9 K can be produced. The idea of cooling with nuclear demagnetization is not new, it is a logical extension of the concept of electron cooling. Using nuclear demagnetization experiment with 3 T water cooled solenoids 3 mK could be produced. The cold record is held by Olli Lounasmaa in Helsinki with temperatures below 10 -9 K. (R.P.)

  14. Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-21

    Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.

  15. Estimating Coastal Digital Elevation Model (DEM) Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amante, C.; Mesick, S.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated bathymetric-topographic digital elevation models (DEMs) are representations of the Earth's solid surface and are fundamental to the modeling of coastal processes, including tsunami, storm surge, and sea-level rise inundation. Deviations in elevation values from the actual seabed or land surface constitute errors in DEMs, which originate from numerous sources, including: (i) the source elevation measurements (e.g., multibeam sonar, lidar), (ii) the interpolative gridding technique (e.g., spline, kriging) used to estimate elevations in areas unconstrained by source measurements, and (iii) the datum transformation used to convert bathymetric and topographic data to common vertical reference systems. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the errors from these sources are typically unknown, and the lack of knowledge regarding these errors represents the vertical uncertainty in the DEM. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) has developed DEMs for more than 200 coastal communities. This study presents a methodology developed at NOAA NCEI to derive accompanying uncertainty surfaces that estimate DEM errors at the individual cell-level. The development of high-resolution (1/9th arc-second), integrated bathymetric-topographic DEMs along the southwest coast of Florida serves as the case study for deriving uncertainty surfaces. The estimated uncertainty can then be propagated into the modeling of coastal processes that utilize DEMs. Incorporating the uncertainty produces more reliable modeling results, and in turn, better-informed coastal management decisions.

  16. Uncertainty and sampling issues in tank characterization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebetrau, A.M.; Pulsipher, B.A.; Kashporenko, D.M.

    1997-06-01

    A defensible characterization strategy must recognize that uncertainties are inherent in any measurement or estimate of interest and must employ statistical methods for quantifying and managing those uncertainties. Estimates of risk and therefore key decisions must incorporate knowledge about uncertainty. This report focuses statistical methods that should be employed to ensure confident decision making and appropriate management of uncertainty. Sampling is a major source of uncertainty that deserves special consideration in the tank characterization strategy. The question of whether sampling will ever provide the reliable information needed to resolve safety issues is explored. The issue of sample representativeness must be resolved before sample information is reliable. Representativeness is a relative term but can be defined in terms of bias and precision. Currently, precision can be quantified and managed through an effective sampling and statistical analysis program. Quantifying bias is more difficult and is not being addressed under the current sampling strategies. Bias could be bounded by (1) employing new sampling methods that can obtain samples from other areas in the tanks, (2) putting in new risers on some worst case tanks and comparing the results from existing risers with new risers, or (3) sampling tanks through risers under which no disturbance or activity has previously occurred. With some bound on bias and estimates of precision, various sampling strategies could be determined and shown to be either cost-effective or infeasible

  17. Microbial analysis of meatballs cooled with vacuum and conventional cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozturk, Hande Mutlu; Ozturk, Harun Kemal; Koçar, Gunnur

    2017-08-01

    Vacuum cooling is a rapid evaporative cooling technique and can be used for pre-cooling of leafy vegetables, mushroom, bakery, fishery, sauces, cooked food, meat and particulate foods. The aim of this study was to apply the vacuum cooling and the conventional cooling techniques for the cooling of the meatball and to show the vacuum pressure effect on the cooling time, the temperature decrease and microbial growth rate. The results of the vacuum cooling and the conventional cooling (cooling in the refrigerator) were compared with each other for different temperatures. The study shows that the conventional cooling was much slower than the vacuum cooling. Moreover, the microbial growth rate of the vacuum cooling was extremely low compared with the conventional cooling. Thus, the lowest microbial growth occurred at 0.7 kPa and the highest microbial growth was observed at 1.5 kPa for the vacuum cooling. The mass loss ratio for the conventional cooling and vacuum cooling was about 5 and 9% respectively.

  18. A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Newman, Jennifer, F.; Clifton, Andrew; Bonin, Timothy A.; Churchfield, Matthew J.

    2017-03-24

    As wind turbine sizes increase and wind energy expands to more complex and remote sites, remote sensing devices such as lidars are expected to play a key role in wind resource assessment and power performance testing. The switch to remote sensing devices represents a paradigm shift in the way the wind industry typically obtains and interprets measurement data for wind energy. For example, the measurement techniques and sources of uncertainty for a remote sensing device are vastly different from those associated with a cup anemometer on a meteorological tower. Current IEC standards discuss uncertainty due to mounting, calibration, and classification of the remote sensing device, among other parameters. Values of the uncertainty are typically given as a function of the mean wind speed measured by a reference device. However, real-world experience has shown that lidar performance is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions, such as wind shear, turbulence, and aerosol content. At present, these conditions are not directly incorporated into the estimated uncertainty of a lidar device. In this presentation, we propose the development of a new lidar uncertainty framework that adapts to current flow conditions and more accurately represents the actual uncertainty inherent in lidar measurements under different conditions. In this new framework, sources of uncertainty are identified for estimation of the line-of-sight wind speed and reconstruction of the three-dimensional wind field. These sources are then related to physical processes caused by the atmosphere and lidar operating conditions. The framework is applied to lidar data from an operational wind farm to assess the ability of the framework to predict errors in lidar-measured wind speed.

  19. Gas cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Masayuki.

    1985-01-01

    Purpose: To enable direct cooling of reactor cores thereby improving the cooling efficiency upon accidents. Constitution: A plurality sets of heat exchange pipe groups are disposed around the reactor core, which are connected by way of communication pipes with a feedwater recycling device comprising gas/liquid separation device, recycling pump, feedwater pump and emergency water tank. Upon occurrence of loss of primary coolants accidents, the heat exchange pipe groups directly absorb the heat from the reactor core through radiation and convection. Although the water in the heat exchange pipe groups are boiled to evaporate if the forcive circulation is interrupted by the loss of electric power source, water in the emergency tank is supplied due to the head to the heat exchange pipe groups to continue the cooling. Furthermore, since the heat exchange pipe groups surround the entire circumference of the reactor core, cooling is carried out uniformly without resulting deformation or stresses due to the thermal imbalance. (Sekiya, K.)

  20. Warm and Cool Dinosaurs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannlein, Sally

    2001-01-01

    Presents an art activity in which first grade students draw dinosaurs in order to learn about the concept of warm and cool colors. Explains how the activity also helped the students learn about the concept of distance when drawing. (CMK)

  1. Cooling of wood briquettes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adžić Miroljub M.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the experimental research of surface temperature of wood briquettes during cooling phase along the cooling line. The cooling phase is an important part of the briquette production technology. It should be performed with care, otherwise the quality of briquettes could deteriorate and possible changes of combustion characteristics of briquettes could happen. The briquette surface temperature was measured with an IR camera and a surface temperature probe at 42 sections. It was found that the temperature of briquette surface dropped from 68 to 34°C after 7 minutes spent at the cooling line. The temperature at the center of briquette, during the 6 hour storage, decreased to 38°C.

  2. Stacking with stochastic cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caspers, Fritz E-mail: Fritz.Caspers@cern.ch; Moehl, Dieter

    2004-10-11

    Accumulation of large stacks of antiprotons or ions with the aid of stochastic cooling is more delicate than cooling a constant intensity beam. Basically the difficulty stems from the fact that the optimized gain and the cooling rate are inversely proportional to the number of particles 'seen' by the cooling system. Therefore, to maintain fast stacking, the newly injected batch has to be strongly 'protected' from the Schottky noise of the stack. Vice versa the stack has to be efficiently 'shielded' against the high gain cooling system for the injected beam. In the antiproton accumulators with stacking ratios up to 10{sup 5} the problem is solved by radial separation of the injection and the stack orbits in a region of large dispersion. An array of several tapered cooling systems with a matched gain profile provides a continuous particle flux towards the high-density stack core. Shielding of the different systems from each other is obtained both through the spatial separation and via the revolution frequencies (filters). In the 'old AA', where the antiproton collection and stacking was done in one single ring, the injected beam was further shielded during cooling by means of a movable shutter. The complexity of these systems is very high. For more modest stacking ratios, one might use azimuthal rather than radial separation of stack and injected beam. Schematically half of the circumference would be used to accept and cool new beam and the remainder to house the stack. Fast gating is then required between the high gain cooling of the injected beam and the low gain stack cooling. RF-gymnastics are used to merge the pre-cooled batch with the stack, to re-create free space for the next injection, and to capture the new batch. This scheme is less demanding for the storage ring lattice, but at the expense of some reduction in stacking rate. The talk reviews the 'radial' separation schemes and also gives some

  3. Dealing with exploration uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capen, E.

    1992-01-01

    Exploration for oil and gas should fulfill the most adventurous in their quest for excitement and surprise. This paper tries to cover that tall order. The authors will touch on the magnitude of the uncertainty (which is far greater than in most other businesses), the effects of not knowing target sizes very well, how to build uncertainty into analyses naturally, how to tie reserves and chance estimates to economics, and how to look at the portfolio effect of an exploration program. With no apologies, the authors will be using a different language for some readers - the language of uncertainty, which means probability and statistics. These tools allow one to combine largely subjective exploration information with the more analytical data from the engineering and economic side

  4. Laser cooling of solids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epstein, Richard I [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Sheik-bahae, Mansoor [UNM

    2008-01-01

    We present an overview of solid-state optical refrigeration also known as laser cooling in solids by fluorescence upconversion. The idea of cooling a solid-state optical material by simply shining a laser beam onto it may sound counter intuitive but is rapidly becoming a promising technology for future cryocooler. We chart the evolution of this science in rare-earth doped solids and semiconductors.

  5. Cooling with Superfluid Helium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lebrun, P; Tavian, L [European Organization for Nuclear Research, Geneva (Switzerland)

    2014-07-01

    The technical properties of helium II (‘superfluid’ helium) are presented in view of its applications to the cooling of superconducting devices, particularly in particle accelerators. Cooling schemes are discussed in terms of heat transfer performance and limitations. Large-capacity refrigeration techniques below 2 K are reviewed, with regard to thermodynamic cycles as well as process machinery. Examples drawn from existing or planned projects illustrate the presentation. Keywords: superfluid helium, cryogenics.

  6. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Levitt, TS; Lemmer, JF; Shachter, RD

    1990-01-01

    Clearly illustrated in this volume is the current relationship between Uncertainty and AI.It has been said that research in AI revolves around five basic questions asked relative to some particular domain: What knowledge is required? How can this knowledge be acquired? How can it be represented in a system? How should this knowledge be manipulated in order to provide intelligent behavior? How can the behavior be explained? In this volume, all of these questions are addressed. From the perspective of the relationship of uncertainty to the basic questions of AI, the book divides naturally i

  7. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Cacuci, Dan G; Navon, Ionel Michael

    2005-01-01

    As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable scientific tools. Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis. Volume I: Theory focused on the mathematical underpinnings of two important methods for such analyses: the Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure and the Global Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Procedure. This volume concentrates on the practical aspects of performing these analyses for large-scale systems. The applications addressed include two-phase flow problems, a radiative c

  8. Comparing Social Stories™ to Cool versus Not Cool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leaf, Justin B.; Mitchell, Erin; Townley-Cochran, Donna; McEachin, John; Taubman, Mitchell; Leaf, Ronald

    2016-01-01

    In this study we compared the cool versus not cool procedure to Social Stories™ for teaching various social behaviors to one individual diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder. The researchers randomly assigned three social skills to the cool versus not cool procedure and three social skills to the Social Stories™ procedure. Naturalistic probes…

  9. Uncertainty of Water-hammer Loads for Safety Related Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Seung Chan; Yoon, Duk Joo [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., LT., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-10-15

    In this study, the basic methodology is base on ISO GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurements). For a given gas void volumes in the discharge piping, the maximum pressure of water hammer is defined in equation. From equation, uncertainty parameter is selected as U{sub s} (superficial velocity for the specific pipe size and corresponding area) of equation. The main uncertainty parameter (U{sub s}) is estimated by measurement method and Monte Carlo simulation. Two methods are in good agreement with the extended uncertainty. Extended uncertainty of the measurement and Monte Carlo simulation is 1.30 and 1.34 respectively in 95% confidence interval. In 99% confidence interval, the uncertainties are 1.95 and 1.97 respectively. NRC Generic Letter 2008-01 requires nuclear power plant operators to evaluate the possibility of noncondensable gas accumulation for the Emergency Core Cooling System. Specially, gas accumulation can result in system pressure transient in pump discharge piping at a pump start. Consequently, this evolves into a gas water, a water-hammer event and the force imbalances on the piping segments. In this paper, MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) method is introduced in estimating the uncertainty of water hammer. The aim is to evaluate the uncertainty of the water hammer estimation results carried out by KHNP CRI in 2013.

  10. Generalized uncertainty principles, effective Newton constant and regular black holes

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Xiang; Ling, Yi; Shen, You-Gen; Liu, Cheng-Zhou; He, Hong-Sheng; Xu, Lan-Fang

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we explore the quantum spacetimes that are potentially connected with the generalized uncertainty principles. By analyzing the gravity-induced quantum interference pattern and the Gedanken for weighting photon, we find that the generalized uncertainty principles inspire the effective Newton constant as same as our previous proposal. A characteristic momentum associated with the tidal effect is suggested, which incorporates the quantum effect with the geometric nature of gravity...

  11. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-12-31

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling.

  12. Uncertainties in repository modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilson, J.R.

    1996-01-01

    The distant future is ver difficult to predict. Unfortunately, our regulators are being enchouraged to extend ther regulatory period form the standard 10,000 years to 1 million years. Such overconfidence is not justified due to uncertainties in dating, calibration, and modeling

  13. Risks, uncertainty, vagueness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haefele, W.; Renn, O.; Erdmann, G.

    1990-01-01

    The notion of 'risk' is discussed in its social and technological contexts, leading to an investigation of the terms factuality, hypotheticality, uncertainty, and vagueness, and to the problems of acceptance and acceptability especially in the context of political decision finding. (DG) [de

  14. Dry cooling tower operating experience in the LOFT reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hunter, J.A.

    1980-01-01

    A dry cooling tower has been uniquely utilized to dissipate heat generated in a small experimental pressurized water nuclear reactor. Operational experience revealed that dry cooling towers can be intermittently operated with minimal wind susceptibility and water hammer occurrences by cooling potential steam sources after a reactor scram, by isolating idle tubes from the external atmosphere, and by operating at relatively high pressures. Operating experience has also revealed that tube freezing can be minimized by incorporating the proper heating and heat loss prevention features

  15. Laser cooling of neutral atoms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1993-01-01

    A qualitative description of laser cooling of neutral atoms is given. Two of the most important mechanisms utilized in laser cooling, the so-called Doppler Cooling and Sisyphus Cooling, are reviewed. The minimum temperature reached by the atoms is derived using simple arguments. (Author) 7 refs

  16. Technology of power plant cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maulbetsch, J.S.; Zeren, R.W.

    1976-01-01

    The following topics are discussed: the thermodynamics of power generation and the need for cooling water; the technical, economic, and legislative constraints within which the cooling problem must be solved; alternate cooling methods currently available or under development; the water treatment requirements of cooling systems; and some alternatives for modifying the physical impact on aquatic systems

  17. Meltdown reactor core cooling facility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuoka, Tsuyoshi.

    1992-01-01

    The meltdown reactor core cooling facility comprises a meltdown reactor core cooling tank, a cooling water storage tank situates at a position higher than the meltdown reactor core cooling tank, an upper pipeline connecting the upper portions of the both of the tanks and a lower pipeline connecting the lower portions of them. Upon occurrence of reactor core meltdown, a high temperature meltdown reactor core is dropped on the cooling tank to partially melt the tank and form a hole, from which cooling water is flown out. Since the water source of the cooling water is the cooling water storage tank, a great amount of cooling water is further dropped and supplied and the reactor core is submerged and cooled by natural convection for a long period of time. Further, when the lump of the meltdown reactor core is small and the perforated hole of the meltdown reactor cooling tank is small, cooling water is boiled by the high temperature lump intruding into the meltdown reactor core cooling tank and blown out from the upper pipeline to the cooling water storage tank to supply cooling water from the lower pipeline to the meltdown reactor core cooling tank. Since it is constituted only with simple static facilities, the facility can be simplified to attain improvement of reliability. (N.H.)

  18. Strategy under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtney, H; Kirkland, J; Viguerie, P

    1997-01-01

    At the heart of the traditional approach to strategy lies the assumption that by applying a set of powerful analytic tools, executives can predict the future of any business accurately enough to allow them to choose a clear strategic direction. But what happens when the environment is so uncertain that no amount of analysis will allow us to predict the future? What makes for a good strategy in highly uncertain business environments? The authors, consultants at McKinsey & Company, argue that uncertainty requires a new way of thinking about strategy. All too often, they say, executives take a binary view: either they underestimate uncertainty to come up with the forecasts required by their companies' planning or capital-budging processes, or they overestimate it, abandon all analysis, and go with their gut instinct. The authors outline a new approach that begins by making a crucial distinction among four discrete levels of uncertainty that any company might face. They then explain how a set of generic strategies--shaping the market, adapting to it, or reserving the right to play at a later time--can be used in each of the four levels. And they illustrate how these strategies can be implemented through a combination of three basic types of actions: big bets, options, and no-regrets moves. The framework can help managers determine which analytic tools can inform decision making under uncertainty--and which cannot. At a broader level, it offers executives a discipline for thinking rigorously and systematically about uncertainty and its implications for strategy.

  19. Cool WISPs for stellar cooling excesses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giannotti, Maurizio [Physical Sciences, Barry University, 11300 NE 2nd Avenue, Miami Shores, FL 33161 (United States); Irastorza, Igor; Redondo, Javier [Departamento de Física Teórica, Universidad de Zaragoza, Pedro Cerbuna 12, E-50009, Zaragoza, España (Spain); Ringwald, Andreas, E-mail: mgiannotti@barry.edu, E-mail: igor.irastorza@cern.ch, E-mail: jredondo@unizar.es, E-mail: andreas.ringwald@desy.de [Theory group, Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Notkestraße 85, D-22607 Hamburg (Germany)

    2016-05-01

    Several stellar systems (white dwarfs, red giants, horizontal branch stars and possibly the neutron star in the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A) show a mild preference for a non-standard cooling mechanism when compared with theoretical models. This exotic cooling could be provided by Weakly Interacting Slim Particles (WISPs), produced in the hot cores and abandoning the star unimpeded, contributing directly to the energy loss. Taken individually, these excesses do not show a strong statistical weight. However, if one mechanism could consistently explain several of them, the hint could be significant. We analyze the hints in terms of neutrino anomalous magnetic moments, minicharged particles, hidden photons and axion-like particles (ALPs). Among them, the ALP or a massless HP represent the best solution. Interestingly, the hinted ALP parameter space is accessible to the next generation proposed ALP searches, such as ALPS II and IAXO and the massless HP requires a multi TeV energy scale of new physics that might be accessible at the LHC.

  20. Cool WISPs for stellar cooling excesses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giannotti, Maurizio; Irastorza, Igor; Redondo, Javier; Ringwald, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    Several stellar systems (white dwarfs, red giants, horizontal branch stars and possibly the neutron star in the supernova remnant Cassiopeia A) show a mild preference for a non-standard cooling mechanism when compared with theoretical models. This exotic cooling could be provided by Weakly Interacting Slim Particles (WISPs), produced in the hot cores and abandoning the star unimpeded, contributing directly to the energy loss. Taken individually, these excesses do not show a strong statistical weight. However, if one mechanism could consistently explain several of them, the hint could be significant. We analyze the hints in terms of neutrino anomalous magnetic moments, minicharged particles, hidden photons and axion-like particles (ALPs). Among them, the ALP or a massless HP represent the best solution. Interestingly, the hinted ALP parameter space is accessible to the next generation proposed ALP searches, such as ALPS II and IAXO and the massless HP requires a multi TeV energy scale of new physics that might be accessible at the LHC.

  1. Energy management under policy and technology uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tylock, Steven M.; Seager, Thomas P.; Snell, Jeff; Bennett, Erin R.; Sweet, Don

    2012-01-01

    Energy managers in public agencies are subject to multiple and sometimes conflicting policy objectives regarding cost, environmental, and security concerns associated with alternative energy technologies. Making infrastructure investment decisions requires balancing different distributions of risks and benefits that are far from clear. For example, managers at permanent Army installations must incorporate Congressional legislative objectives, executive orders, Department of Defense directives, state laws and regulations, local restrictions, and multiple stakeholder concerns when undertaking new energy initiatives. Moreover, uncertainty with regard to alternative energy technologies is typically much greater than that associated with traditional technologies, both because the technologies themselves are continuously evolving and because the intermittent nature of many renewable technologies makes a certain level of uncertainty irreducible. This paper describes a novel stochastic multi-attribute analytic approach that allows users to explore different priorities or weighting schemes in combination with uncertainties related to technology performance. To illustrate the utility of this approach for understanding conflicting policy or stakeholder perspectives, prioritizing the need for more information, and making investment decisions, we apply this approach to an energy technology decision problem representative of a permanent military base. Highlights: ► Incorporate disparate criteria with uncertain performance. ► Analyze decisions with contrasting stakeholder positions. ► Interactively compare alternatives based on uncertain weighting. ► User friendly multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) tool.

  2. Gas cooled leads

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shutt, R.P.; Rehak, M.L.; Hornik, K.E.

    1993-01-01

    The intent of this paper is to cover as completely as possible and in sufficient detail the topics relevant to lead design. The first part identifies the problems associated with lead design, states the mathematical formulation, and shows the results of numerical and analytical solutions. The second part presents the results of a parametric study whose object is to determine the best choice for cooling method, material, and geometry. These findings axe applied in a third part to the design of high-current leads whose end temperatures are determined from the surrounding equipment. It is found that cooling method or improved heat transfer are not critical once good heat exchange is established. The range 5 5 but extends over a large of values. Mass flow needed to prevent thermal runaway varies linearly with current above a given threshold. Below that value, the mass flow is constant with current. Transient analysis shows no evidence of hysteresis. If cooling is interrupted, the mass flow needed to restore the lead to its initially cooled state grows exponentially with the time that the lead was left without cooling

  3. Emergency core cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Kenji; Oikawa, Hirohide.

    1990-01-01

    The device according to this invention can ensure cooling water required for emerency core cooling upon emergence such as abnormally, for example, loss of coolant accident, without using dynamic equipments such as a centrifugal pump or large-scaled tank. The device comprises a pressure accumulation tank containing a high pressure nitrogen gas and cooling water inside, a condensate storage tank, a pressure suppression pool and a jet stream pump. In this device there are disposed a pipeline for guiding cooling water in the pressure accumulation tank as a jetting water to a jetting stream pump, a pipeline for guiding cooling water stored in the condensate storage tank and the pressure suppression pool as pumped water to the jetting pump and, further, a pipeline for guiding the discharged water from the jet stream pump which is a mixed stream of pumped water and jetting water into the reactor pressure vessel. In this constitution, a sufficient amount of water ranging from relatively high pressure to low pressure can be supplied into the reactor pressure vessel, without increasing the size of the pressure accumulation tank. (I.S.)

  4. Emergency reactor cooling circuit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Araki, Hidefumi; Matsumoto, Tomoyuki; Kataoka, Yoshiyuki.

    1994-01-01

    Cooling water in a gravitationally dropping water reservoir is injected into a reactor pressure vessel passing through a pipeline upon occurrence of emergency. The pipeline is inclined downwardly having one end thereof being in communication with the pressure vessel. During normal operation, the cooling water in the upper portion of the inclined pipeline is heated by convection heat transfer from the communication portion with the pressure vessel. On the other hand, cooling water present at a position lower than the communication portion forms cooling water lumps. Accordingly, temperature stratification layers are formed in the inclined pipeline. Therefore, temperature rise of water in a vertical pipeline connected to the inclined pipeline is small. With such a constitution, the amount of heat lost from the pressure vessel by way of the water injection pipeline is reduced. Further, there is no worry that cooling water to be injected upon occurrence of emergency is boiled under reduced pressure in the injection pipeline to delay the depressurization of the pressure vessel. (I.N.)

  5. Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, H. K.; Krueger, T.; Freer, J. E.; Westerberg, I.

    2013-12-01

    There is a pressing need for authoritative and concise information on the expected error distributions and magnitudes in hydrological data, to understand its information content. Many studies have discussed how to incorporate uncertainty information into model calibration and implementation, and shown how model results can be biased if uncertainty is not appropriately characterised. However, it is not always possible (for example due to financial or time constraints) to make detailed studies of uncertainty for every research study. Instead, we propose that the hydrological community could benefit greatly from sharing information on likely uncertainty characteristics and the main factors that control the resulting magnitude. In this presentation, we review the current knowledge of uncertainty for a number of key hydrological variables: rainfall, flow and water quality (suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus). We collated information on the specifics of the data measurement (data type, temporal and spatial resolution), error characteristics measured (e.g. standard error, confidence bounds) and error magnitude. Our results were primarily split by data type. Rainfall uncertainty was controlled most strongly by spatial scale, flow uncertainty was controlled by flow state (low, high) and gauging method. Water quality presented a more complex picture with many component errors. For all variables, it was easy to find examples where relative error magnitude exceeded 40%. We discuss some of the recent developments in hydrology which increase the need for guidance on typical error magnitudes, in particular when doing comparative/regionalisation and multi-objective analysis. Increased sharing of data, comparisons between multiple catchments, and storage in national/international databases can mean that data-users are far removed from data collection, but require good uncertainty information to reduce bias in comparisons or catchment regionalisation studies. Recently it has

  6. Methods for handling uncertainty within pharmaceutical funding decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevenson, Matt; Tappenden, Paul; Squires, Hazel

    2014-01-01

    This article provides a position statement regarding decision making under uncertainty within the economic evaluation of pharmaceuticals, with a particular focus upon the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence context within England and Wales. This area is of importance as funding agencies have a finite budget from which to purchase a selection of competing health care interventions. The objective function generally used is that of maximising societal health with an explicit acknowledgement that there will be opportunity costs associated with purchasing a particular intervention. Three components of uncertainty are discussed within a pharmaceutical funding perspective: methodological uncertainty, parameter uncertainty and structural uncertainty, alongside a discussion of challenges that are particularly pertinent to health economic evaluation. The discipline has focused primarily on handling methodological and parameter uncertainty and a clear reference case has been developed for consistency across evaluations. However, uncertainties still remain. Less attention has been given to methods for handling structural uncertainty. The lack of adequate methods to explicitly incorporate this aspect of model development may result in the true uncertainty surrounding health care investment decisions being underestimated. Research in this area is ongoing as we review.

  7. Characterizing spatial uncertainty when integrating social data in conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lechner, A M; Raymond, C M; Adams, V M; Polyakov, M; Gordon, A; Rhodes, J R; Mills, M; Stein, A; Ives, C D; Lefroy, E C

    2014-12-01

    Recent conservation planning studies have presented approaches for integrating spatially referenced social (SRS) data with a view to improving the feasibility of conservation action. We reviewed the growing conservation literature on SRS data, focusing on elicited or stated preferences derived through social survey methods such as choice experiments and public participation geographic information systems. Elicited SRS data includes the spatial distribution of willingness to sell, willingness to pay, willingness to act, and assessments of social and cultural values. We developed a typology for assessing elicited SRS data uncertainty which describes how social survey uncertainty propagates when projected spatially and the importance of accounting for spatial uncertainty such as scale effects and data quality. These uncertainties will propagate when elicited SRS data is integrated with biophysical data for conservation planning and may have important consequences for assessing the feasibility of conservation actions. To explore this issue further, we conducted a systematic review of the elicited SRS data literature. We found that social survey uncertainty was commonly tested for, but that these uncertainties were ignored when projected spatially. Based on these results we developed a framework which will help researchers and practitioners estimate social survey uncertainty and use these quantitative estimates to systematically address uncertainty within an analysis. This is important when using SRS data in conservation applications because decisions need to be made irrespective of data quality and well characterized uncertainty can be incorporated into decision theoretic approaches. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

  8. Aspects of uncertainty analysis in accident consequence modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Travis, C.C.; Hoffman, F.O.

    1981-01-01

    Mathematical models are frequently used to determine probable dose to man from an accidental release of radionuclides by a nuclear facility. With increased emphasis on the accuracy of these models, the incorporation of uncertainty analysis has become one of the most crucial and sensitive components in evaluating the significance of model predictions. In the present paper, we address three aspects of uncertainty in models used to assess the radiological impact to humans: uncertainties resulting from the natural variability in human biological parameters; the propagation of parameter variability by mathematical models; and comparison of model predictions to observational data

  9. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen, E-mail: sannevl@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark); Kørnøv, Lone, E-mail: lonek@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University, Skibbrogade 5, 1. Sal, 9000 Aalborg (Denmark); Driscoll, Patrick, E-mail: patrick@plan.aau.dk [The Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Aalborg University-Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vænge 15, 2450 København SV (Denmark)

    2013-11-15

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty.

  10. Avoiding climate change uncertainties in Strategic Environmental Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen; Kørnøv, Lone; Driscoll, Patrick

    2013-01-01

    This article is concerned with how Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) practice handles climate change uncertainties within the Danish planning system. First, a hypothetical model is set up for how uncertainty is handled and not handled in decision-making. The model incorporates the strategies ‘reduction’ and ‘resilience’, ‘denying’, ‘ignoring’ and ‘postponing’. Second, 151 Danish SEAs are analysed with a focus on the extent to which climate change uncertainties are acknowledged and presented, and the empirical findings are discussed in relation to the model. The findings indicate that despite incentives to do so, climate change uncertainties were systematically avoided or downplayed in all but 5 of the 151 SEAs that were reviewed. Finally, two possible explanatory mechanisms are proposed to explain this: conflict avoidance and a need to quantify uncertainty

  11. Core cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeppner, G.

    1980-01-01

    The reactor cooling system transports the heat liberated in the reactor core to the component - heat exchanger, steam generator or turbine - where the energy is removed. This basic task can be performed with a variety of coolants circulating in appropriately designed cooling systems. The choice of any one system is governed by principles of economics and natural policies, the design is determined by the laws of nuclear physics, thermal-hydraulics and by the requirement of reliability and public safety. PWR- and BWR- reactors today generate the bulk of nuclear energy. Their primary cooling systems are discussed under the following aspects: 1. General design, nuclear physics constraints, energy transfer, hydraulics, thermodynamics. 2. Design and performance under conditions of steady state and mild transients; control systems. 3. Design and performance under conditions of severe transients and loss of coolant accidents; safety systems. (orig./RW)

  12. Reactor cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kato, Etsuji.

    1979-01-01

    Purpose: To eliminate cleaning steps in the pipelines upon reactor shut-down by connecting a filtrating and desalting device to the cooling system to thereby always clean up the water in the pipelines. Constitution: A filtrating and desalting device is connected to the pipelines in the cooling system by way of drain valves and a check valve. Desalted water is taken out from the exit of the filtrating and desalting device and injected to one end of the cooling system pipelines by way of the drain valve and the check valve and then returned by way of another drain valve to the desalting device. Water in the pipelines is thus always desalted and the cleaning step in the pipelines is no more required in the shut-down. (Kawakami, Y.)

  13. ELECTRON COOLING FOR RHIC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    BEN-ZVI, I.; AHRENS, L.; BRENNAN, M.; HARRISON, M.; KEWISCH, J.; MACKAY, W.; PEGGS, S.; ROSER, T.; SATOGATA, T.; TRBOJEVIC, D.; YAKIMENKO, V.

    2001-01-01

    We introduce plans for electron-cooling of the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). This project has a number of new features as electron coolers go: It will cool 100 GeV/nucleon ions with 50 MeV electrons; it will be the first attempt to cool a collider at storage-energy; and it will be the first cooler to use a bunched beam and a linear accelerator as the electron source. The linac will be superconducting with energy recovery. The electron source will be based on a photocathode gun. The project is carried out by the Collider-Accelerator Department at BNL in collaboration with the Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics

  14. Muon ionization cooling experiment

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2003-01-01

    A neutrino factory based on a muon storage ring is the ultimate tool for studies of neutrino oscillations, including possibly leptonic CP violation. It is also the first step towards muon colliders. The performance of this new and promising line of accelerators relies heavily on the concept of ionisation cooling of minimum ionising muons, for which much R&D is required. The concept of a muon ionisation cooling experiment has been extensively studied and first steps are now being taken towards its realisation by a joint international team of accelerator and particle physicists. The aim of the workshop is to to explore at least two versions of an experiment based on existing cooling channel designs. If such an experiment is feasible, one shall then select, on the basis of effectiveness, simplicity, availability of components and overall cost, a design for the proposed experiment, and assemble the elements necessary to the presentation of a proposal. Please see workshop website.

  15. Emergency core cooling device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzaki, Kiyoshi; Inoue, Akihiro.

    1979-01-01

    Purpose: To improve core cooling effect by making the operation region for a plurality of water injection pumps more broader. Constitution: An emergency reactor core cooling device actuated upon failure of recycling pipe ways is adapted to be fed with cooling water through a thermal sleeve by way of a plurality of water injection pump from pool water in a condensate storage tank and a pressure suppression chamber as water feed source. Exhaust pipes and suction pipes of each of the pumps are connected by way of switching valves and the valves are switched so that the pumps are set to a series operation if the pressure in the pressure vessel is high and the pumps are set to a parallel operation if the pressure in the pressure vessel is low. (Furukawa, Y.)

  16. Monitoring Cray Cooling Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maxwell, Don E [ORNL; Ezell, Matthew A [ORNL; Becklehimer, Jeff [Cray, Inc.; Donovan, Matthew J [ORNL; Layton, Christopher C [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    While sites generally have systems in place to monitor the health of Cray computers themselves, often the cooling systems are ignored until a computer failure requires investigation into the source of the failure. The Liebert XDP units used to cool the Cray XE/XK models as well as the Cray proprietary cooling system used for the Cray XC30 models provide data useful for health monitoring. Unfortunately, this valuable information is often available only to custom solutions not accessible by a center-wide monitoring system or is simply ignored entirely. In this paper, methods and tools used to harvest the monitoring data available are discussed, and the implementation needed to integrate the data into a center-wide monitoring system at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory is provided.

  17. Cooling nuclear reactor fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Porter, W.H.L.

    1975-01-01

    Reference is made to water or water/steam cooled reactors of the fuel cluster type. In such reactors it is usual to mount the clusters in parallel spaced relationship so that coolant can pass freely between them, the coolant being passed axially from one end of the cluster in an upward direction through the cluster and being effective for cooling under normal circumstances. It has been suggested, however, that in addition to the main coolant flow an auxiliary coolant flow be provided so as to pass laterally into the cluster or be sprayed over the top of the cluster. This auxiliary supply may be continuously in use, or may be held in reserve for use in emergencies. Arrangements for providing this auxiliary cooling are described in detail. (U.K.)

  18. MAPLE research reactor safety uncertainty assessment methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sills, H.E.; Duffey, R.B.; Andres, T.H.

    1999-01-01

    The MAPLE (multipurpose Applied Physics Lattice Experiment) reactor is a low pressure, low temperature, open-tank-in pool type research reactor that operates at a power level of 5 to 35 MW. MAPLE is designed for ease of operation, maintenance, and to meet today's most demanding requirements for safety and licensing. The emphasis is on the use of passive safety systems and environmentally qualified components. Key safety features include two independent and diverse shutdown systems, two parallel and independent cooling loops, fail safe operation, and a building design that incorporates the concepts of primary containment supported by secondary confinement

  19. Risk Assessment Uncertainties in Cybersecurity Investments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew Fielder

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available When undertaking cybersecurity risk assessments, it is important to be able to assign numeric values to metrics to compute the final expected loss that represents the risk that an organization is exposed to due to cyber threats. Even if risk assessment is motivated by real-world observations and data, there is always a high chance of assigning inaccurate values due to different uncertainties involved (e.g., evolving threat landscape, human errors and the natural difficulty of quantifying risk. Existing models empower organizations to compute optimal cybersecurity strategies given their financial constraints, i.e., available cybersecurity budget. Further, a general game-theoretic model with uncertain payoffs (probability-distribution-valued payoffs shows that such uncertainty can be incorporated in the game-theoretic model by allowing payoffs to be random. This paper extends previous work in the field to tackle uncertainties in risk assessment that affect cybersecurity investments. The findings from simulated examples indicate that although uncertainties in cybersecurity risk assessment lead, on average, to different cybersecurity strategies, they do not play a significant role in the final expected loss of the organization when utilising a game-theoretic model and methodology to derive these strategies. The model determines robust defending strategies even when knowledge regarding risk assessment values is not accurate. As a result, it is possible to show that the cybersecurity investments’ tool is capable of providing effective decision support.

  20. Optimization of FRAP uncertainty analysis option

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, S.O.

    1979-10-01

    The automated uncertainty analysis option that has been incorporated in the FRAP codes (FRAP-T5 and FRAPCON-2) provides the user with a means of obtaining uncertainty bands on code predicted variables at user-selected times during a fuel pin analysis. These uncertainty bands are obtained by multiple single fuel pin analyses to generate data which can then be analyzed by second order statistical error propagation techniques. In this process, a considerable amount of data is generated and stored on tape. The user has certain choices to make regarding which independent variables are to be used in the analysis and what order of error propagation equation should be used in modeling the output response. To aid the user in these decisions, a computer program, ANALYZ, has been written and added to the uncertainty analysis option package. A variety of considerations involved in fitting response surface equations and certain pit-falls of which the user should be aware are discussed. An equation is derived expressing a residual as a function of a fitted model and an assumed true model. A variety of experimental design choices are discussed, including the advantages and disadvantages of each approach. Finally, a description of the subcodes which constitute program ANALYZ is provided

  1. Uncertainty Assessments in Fast Neutron Activation Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    W. D. James; R. Zeisler

    2000-01-01

    Fast neutron activation analysis (FNAA) carried out with the use of small accelerator-based neutron generators is routinely used for major/minor element determinations in industry, mineral and petroleum exploration, and to some extent in research. While the method shares many of the operational procedures and therefore errors inherent to conventional thermal neutron activation analysis, its unique implementation gives rise to additional specific concerns that can result in errors or increased uncertainties of measured quantities. The authors were involved in a recent effort to evaluate irreversible incorporation of oxygen into a standard reference material (SRM) by direct measurement of oxygen by FNAA. That project required determination of oxygen in bottles of the SRM stored in varying environmental conditions and a comparison of the results. We recognized the need to accurately describe the total uncertainty of the measurements to accurately characterize any differences in the resulting average concentrations. It is our intent here to discuss the breadth of potential parameters that have the potential to contribute to the random and nonrandom errors of the method and provide estimates of the magnitude of uncertainty introduced. In addition, we will discuss the steps taken in this recent FNAA project to control quality, assess the uncertainty of the measurements, and evaluate results based on the statistical reproducibility

  2. Stochastic cooling for beginners

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moehl, D.

    1984-01-01

    These two lectures have been prepared to give a simple introduction to the principles. In Part I we try to explain stochastic cooling using the time-domain picture which starts from the pulse response of the system. In Part II the discussion is repeated, looking more closely at the frequency-domain response. An attempt is made to familiarize the beginners with some of the elementary cooling equations, from the 'single particle case' up to equations which describe the evolution of the particle distribution. (orig.)

  3. Sodium cooled fast reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hokkyo, N; Inoue, K; Maeda, H

    1968-11-21

    In a sodium cooled fast neutron reactor, an ultrasonic generator is installed at a fuel assembly hold-down mechanism positioned above a blanket or fission gas reservoir located above the core. During operation of the reactor an ultrsonic wave of frequency 10/sup 3/ - 10/sup 4/ Hz is constantly transmitted to the core to resonantly inject the primary bubble with ultrasonic energy to thereby facilitate its growth. Hence, small bubbles grow gradually to prevent the sudden boiling of sodium if an accident occurs in the cooling system during operation of the reactor.

  4. Cooling pond fog studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hicks, B.B.

    1978-01-01

    The Fog Excess Water Index (FEWI) method of fog prediction has been verified by the use of data obtained at the Dresden cooling pond during 1976 and 1977 and by a reanalysis of observations made in conjunction with a study of cooling pond simulators during 1974. For applications in which the method is applied to measurements or estimates of bulk water temperature, a critical value of about 0.7 mb appears to be most appropriate. The present analyses confirm the earlier finding that wind speed plays little part in determining the susceptibility for fog generation

  5. Uncertainty in adaptive capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neil Adger, W.; Vincent, K.

    2005-01-01

    The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. (authors)

  6. Uncertainties about climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laval, Katia; Laval, Guy

    2013-01-01

    Like meteorology, climatology is not an exact science: climate change forecasts necessarily include a share of uncertainty. It is precisely this uncertainty which is brandished and exploited by the opponents to the global warming theory to put into question the estimations of its future consequences. Is it legitimate to predict the future using the past climate data (well documented up to 100000 years BP) or the climates of other planets, taking into account the impreciseness of the measurements and the intrinsic complexity of the Earth's machinery? How is it possible to model a so huge and interwoven system for which any exact description has become impossible? Why water and precipitations play such an important role in local and global forecasts, and how should they be treated? This book written by two physicists answers with simpleness these delicate questions in order to give anyone the possibility to build his own opinion about global warming and the need to act rapidly

  7. Delayed neutron spectra and their uncertainties in fission product summation calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miyazono, T.; Sagisaka, M.; Ohta, H.; Oyamatsu, K.; Tamaki, M. [Nagoya Univ. (Japan)

    1997-03-01

    Uncertainties in delayed neutron summation calculations are evaluated with ENDF/B-VI for 50 fissioning systems. As the first step, uncertainty calculations are performed for the aggregate delayed neutron activity with the same approximate method as proposed previously for the decay heat uncertainty analyses. Typical uncertainty values are about 6-14% for {sup 238}U(F) and about 13-23% for {sup 243}Am(F) at cooling times 0.1-100 (s). These values are typically 2-3 times larger than those in decay heat at the same cooling times. For aggregate delayed neutron spectra, the uncertainties would be larger than those for the delayed neutron activity because much more information about the nuclear structure is still necessary. (author)

  8. The uncertainty principle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martens, Hans.

    1991-01-01

    The subject of this thesis is the uncertainty principle (UP). The UP is one of the most characteristic points of differences between quantum and classical mechanics. The starting point of this thesis is the work of Niels Bohr. Besides the discussion the work is also analyzed. For the discussion of the different aspects of the UP the formalism of Davies and Ludwig is used instead of the more commonly used formalism of Neumann and Dirac. (author). 214 refs.; 23 figs

  9. Uncertainty in artificial intelligence

    CERN Document Server

    Shachter, RD; Henrion, M; Lemmer, JF

    1990-01-01

    This volume, like its predecessors, reflects the cutting edge of research on the automation of reasoning under uncertainty.A more pragmatic emphasis is evident, for although some papers address fundamental issues, the majority address practical issues. Topics include the relations between alternative formalisms (including possibilistic reasoning), Dempster-Shafer belief functions, non-monotonic reasoning, Bayesian and decision theoretic schemes, and new inference techniques for belief nets. New techniques are applied to important problems in medicine, vision, robotics, and natural language und

  10. Decision Making Under Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    A sound approach to rational decision making requires a decision maker to establish decision objectives, identify alternatives, and evaluate those...often violate the axioms of rationality when making decisions under uncertainty. The systematic description of such observations may lead to the...which leads to “anchoring” on the initial value. The fact that individuals have been shown to deviate from rationality when making decisions

  11. Economic uncertainty principle?

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander Harin

    2006-01-01

    The economic principle of (hidden) uncertainty is presented. New probability formulas are offered. Examples of solutions of three types of fundamental problems are reviewed.; Principe d'incertitude économique? Le principe économique d'incertitude (cachée) est présenté. De nouvelles formules de chances sont offertes. Les exemples de solutions des trois types de problèmes fondamentaux sont reconsidérés.

  12. Citizen Candidates Under Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Eguia, Jon X.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we make two contributions to the growing literature on "citizen-candidate" models of representative democracy. First, we add uncertainty about the total vote count. We show that in a society with a large electorate, where the outcome of the election is uncertain and where winning candidates receive a large reward from holding office, there will be a two-candidate equilibrium and no equilibria with a single candidate. Second, we introduce a new concept of equilibrium, which we te...

  13. Incorporating Feminist Standpoint Theory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahlström, Kristoffer

    2005-01-01

    As has been noted by Alvin Goldman, there are some very interesting similarities between his Veritistic Social Epistemology (VSE) and Sandra Harding’s Feminist Standpoint Theory (FST). In the present paper, it is argued that these similarities are so significant as to motivate an incorporation...

  14. Differentiating leucine incorporation of

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yokokawa, T.; Sintes, E.; de Corte, D.; Olbrich, K.; Herndl, G.J.

    2012-01-01

    The abundance (based on catalyzed reporter deposition-fluorescence in situ hybrid ization, CARD-FISH) and leucine incorporation rates of Archaea and Bacteria were determined throughout the water column in the eastern Atlantic. Bacteria dominated throughout the water column, although their

  15. Calibration Under Uncertainty.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swiler, Laura Painton; Trucano, Timothy Guy

    2005-03-01

    This report is a white paper summarizing the literature and different approaches to the problem of calibrating computer model parameters in the face of model uncertainty. Model calibration is often formulated as finding the parameters that minimize the squared difference between the model-computed data (the predicted data) and the actual experimental data. This approach does not allow for explicit treatment of uncertainty or error in the model itself: the model is considered the %22true%22 deterministic representation of reality. While this approach does have utility, it is far from an accurate mathematical treatment of the true model calibration problem in which both the computed data and experimental data have error bars. This year, we examined methods to perform calibration accounting for the error in both the computer model and the data, as well as improving our understanding of its meaning for model predictability. We call this approach Calibration under Uncertainty (CUU). This talk presents our current thinking on CUU. We outline some current approaches in the literature, and discuss the Bayesian approach to CUU in detail.

  16. Participation under Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boudourides, Moses A.

    2003-01-01

    This essay reviews a number of theoretical perspectives about uncertainty and participation in the present-day knowledge-based society. After discussing the on-going reconfigurations of science, technology and society, we examine how appropriate for policy studies are various theories of social complexity. Post-normal science is such an example of a complexity-motivated approach, which justifies civic participation as a policy response to an increasing uncertainty. But there are different categories and models of uncertainties implying a variety of configurations of policy processes. A particular role in all of them is played by expertise whose democratization is an often-claimed imperative nowadays. Moreover, we discuss how different participatory arrangements are shaped into instruments of policy-making and framing regulatory processes. As participation necessitates and triggers deliberation, we proceed to examine the role and the barriers of deliberativeness. Finally, we conclude by referring to some critical views about the ultimate assumptions of recent European policy frameworks and the conceptions of civic participation and politicization that they invoke

  17. Uncertainty analysis techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marivoet, J.; Saltelli, A.; Cadelli, N.

    1987-01-01

    The origin of the uncertainty affecting Performance Assessments, as well as their propagation to dose and risk results is discussed. The analysis is focused essentially on the uncertainties introduced by the input parameters, the values of which may range over some orders of magnitude and may be given as probability distribution function. The paper briefly reviews the existing sampling techniques used for Monte Carlo simulations and the methods for characterizing the output curves, determining their convergence and confidence limits. Annual doses, expectation values of the doses and risks are computed for a particular case of a possible repository in clay, in order to illustrate the significance of such output characteristics as the mean, the logarithmic mean and the median as well as their ratios. The report concludes that provisionally, due to its better robustness, such estimation as the 90th percentile may be substituted to the arithmetic mean for comparison of the estimated doses with acceptance criteria. In any case, the results obtained through Uncertainty Analyses must be interpreted with caution as long as input data distribution functions are not derived from experiments reasonably reproducing the situation in a well characterized repository and site

  18. Deterministic uncertainty analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, B.A.

    1987-12-01

    This paper presents a deterministic uncertainty analysis (DUA) method for calculating uncertainties that has the potential to significantly reduce the number of computer runs compared to conventional statistical analysis. The method is based upon the availability of derivative and sensitivity data such as that calculated using the well known direct or adjoint sensitivity analysis techniques. Formation of response surfaces using derivative data and the propagation of input probability distributions are discussed relative to their role in the DUA method. A sample problem that models the flow of water through a borehole is used as a basis to compare the cumulative distribution function of the flow rate as calculated by the standard statistical methods and the DUA method. Propogation of uncertainties by the DUA method is compared for ten cases in which the number of reference model runs was varied from one to ten. The DUA method gives a more accurate representation of the true cumulative distribution of the flow rate based upon as few as two model executions compared to fifty model executions using a statistical approach. 16 refs., 4 figs., 5 tabs

  19. Processes influencing cooling of reactor effluents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magoulas, V.E.; Murphy, C.E. Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Discharge of heated reactor cooling water from SRP reactors to the Savannah River is through sections of stream channels into the Savannah River Swamp and from the swamp into the river. Significant cooling of the reactor effluents takes place in both the streams and swamp. The majority of the cooling is through processes taking place at the surface of the water. The major means of heat dissipation are convective transfer of heat to the air, latent heat transfer through evaporation and radiative transfer of infrared radiation. A model was developed which incorporates the effects of these processes on stream and swamp cooling of reactor effluents. The model was used to simulate the effect of modifications in the stream environment on the temperature of water flowing into the river. Environmental effects simulated were the effect of changing radiant heat load, the effect of changes in tree canopy density in the swamp, the effect of total removal of trees from the swamp, and the effect of diverting the heated water from L reactor from Steel Creek to Pen Branch. 6 references, 7 figures

  20. Elementary stochastic cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tollestrup, A.V.; Dugan, G

    1983-12-01

    Major headings in this review include: proton sources; antiproton production; antiproton sources and Liouville, the role of the Debuncher; transverse stochastic cooling, time domain; the accumulator; frequency domain; pickups and kickers; Fokker-Planck equation; calculation of constants in the Fokker-Planck equation; and beam feedback. (GHT)

  1. ELECTRON COOLING FOR RHIC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ben-Zvi, I.

    2001-01-01

    The Accelerator Collider Department (CAD) at Brookhaven National Laboratory is operating the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC), which includes the dual-ring, 3.834 km circumference superconducting collider and the venerable AGS as the last part of the RHIC injection chain. CAD is planning on a luminosity upgrade of the machine under the designation RHIC II. One important component of the RHIC II upgrade is electron cooling of RHIC gold ion beams. For this purpose, BNL and the Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics in Novosibirsk entered into a collaboration aimed initially at the development of the electron cooling conceptual design, resolution of technical issues, and finally extend the collaboration towards the construction and commissioning of the cooler. Many of the results presented in this paper are derived from the Electron Cooling for RHIC Design Report [1], produced by the, BINP team within the framework of this collaboration. BNL is also collaborating with Fermi National Laboratory, Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility and the University of Indiana on various aspects of electron cooling

  2. ELECTRON COOLING FOR RHIC.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    BEN-ZVI,I.

    2001-05-13

    The Accelerator Collider Department (CAD) at Brookhaven National Laboratory is operating the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC), which includes the dual-ring, 3.834 km circumference superconducting collider and the venerable AGS as the last part of the RHIC injection chain. CAD is planning on a luminosity upgrade of the machine under the designation RHIC II. One important component of the RHIC II upgrade is electron cooling of RHIC gold ion beams. For this purpose, BNL and the Budker Institute of Nuclear Physics in Novosibirsk entered into a collaboration aimed initially at the development of the electron cooling conceptual design, resolution of technical issues, and finally extend the collaboration towards the construction and commissioning of the cooler. Many of the results presented in this paper are derived from the Electron Cooling for RHIC Design Report [1], produced by the, BINP team within the framework of this collaboration. BNL is also collaborating with Fermi National Laboratory, Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility and the University of Indiana on various aspects of electron cooling.

  3. Cooling tower and environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, J.; Ederhof, A.; Gosdowski, J.; Harms, A.; Ide, G.; Klotz, B.; Kowalczyk, R.; Necker, P.; Tesche, W.

    The influence of a cooling tower on the environment, or rather the influence of the environment on the cooling tower stands presently -along with the cooling water supply - in the middle of much discussion. The literature on these questions can hardly be overlooked by the experts concerned, especially not by the power station designers and operators. The document 'Cooling Tower and Environment' is intented to give a general idea of the important publications in this field, and to inform of the present state of technology. In this, the explanations on every section make it easier to get to know the specific subject area. In addition to older standard literature, this publication contains the best-known literature of recent years up to spring 1975, including some articles written in English. Further English literature has been collected by the ZAED (KFK) and is available at the VGB-Geschaefsstelle. Furthermore, The Bundesumweltamt compiles the literature on the subject of 'Environmental protection'. On top of that, further documentation centres are listed at the end of this text. (orig.) [de

  4. Warm and Cool Cityscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jubelirer, Shelly

    2012-01-01

    Painting cityscapes is a great way to teach first-grade students about warm and cool colors. Before the painting begins, the author and her class have an in-depth discussion about big cities and what types of buildings or structures that might be seen in them. They talk about large apartment and condo buildings, skyscrapers, art museums,…

  5. Measure Guideline: Ventilation Cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Springer, D. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), David, CA (United States); Dakin, B. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), David, CA (United States); German, A. [Alliance for Residential Building Innovation (ARBI), David, CA (United States)

    2012-04-01

    The purpose of this measure guideline is to provide information on a cost-effective solution for reducing cooling system energy and demand in homes located in hot-dry and cold-dry climates. This guideline provides a prescriptive approach that outlines qualification criteria, selection considerations, and design and installation procedures.

  6. Passive cooling containment study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, J.J.; Iotti, R.C.; Wright, R.F.

    1993-01-01

    Pressure and temperature transients of nuclear reactor containment following postulated loss of coolant accident with a coincident station blackout due to total loss of all alternating current power are studied analytically and experimentally for the full scale NPR (New Production Reactor). All the reactor and containment cooling under this condition would rely on the passive cooling system which removes reactor decay heat and provides emergency core and containment cooling. Containment passive cooling for this study takes place in the annulus between containment steel shell and concrete shield building by natural convection air flow and thermal radiation. Various heat transfer coefficients inside annular air space were investigated by running the modified CONTEMPT code CONTEMPT-NPR. In order to verify proper heat transfer coefficient, temperature, heat flux, and velocity profiles were measured inside annular air space of the test facility which is a 24 foot (7.3m) high, steam heated inner cylinder of three foot (.91m) diameter and five and half foot (1.7m) diameter outer cylinder. Comparison of CONTEMPT-NPR and WGOTHIC was done for reduced scale NPR

  7. High energy beam cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berger, H.; Herr, H.; Linnecar, T.; Millich, A.; Milss, F.; Rubbia, C.; Taylor, C.S.; Meer, S. van der; Zotter, B.

    1980-01-01

    The group concerned itself with the analysis of cooling systems whose purpose is to maintain the quality of the high energy beams in the SPS in spite of gas scattering, RF noise, magnet ripple and beam-beam interactions. Three types of systems were discussed. The status of these activities is discussed below. (orig.)

  8. Emergency core cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ando, Masaki.

    1987-01-01

    Purpose: To actuate an automatic pressure down system (ADS) and a low pressure emergency core cooling system (ECCS) upon water level reduction of a nuclear reactor other than loss of coolant accidents (LOCA). Constitution: ADS in a BWR type reactor is disposed for reducing the pressure in a reactor container thereby enabling coolant injection from a low pressure ECCS upon LOCA. That is, ADS has been actuated by AND signal for a reactor water level low signal and a dry well pressure high signal. In the present invention, ADS can be actuated further also by AND signal of the reactor water level low signal, the high pressure ECCS and not-operation signal of reactor isolation cooling system. In such an emergency core cooling system thus constituted, ADS operates in the same manner as usual upon LOCA and, further, ADS is operated also upon loss of feedwater accident in the reactor pressure vessel in the case where there is a necessity for actuating the low pressure ECCS, although other high pressure ECCS and reactor isolation cooling system are not operated. Accordingly, it is possible to improve the reliability upon reactor core accident and mitigate the operator burden. (Horiuchi, T.)

  9. Methodologies of Uncertainty Propagation Calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chojnacki, Eric

    2002-01-01

    After recalling the theoretical principle and the practical difficulties of the methodologies of uncertainty propagation calculation, the author discussed how to propagate input uncertainties. He said there were two kinds of input uncertainty: - variability: uncertainty due to heterogeneity, - lack of knowledge: uncertainty due to ignorance. It was therefore necessary to use two different propagation methods. He demonstrated this in a simple example which he generalised, treating the variability uncertainty by the probability theory and the lack of knowledge uncertainty by the fuzzy theory. He cautioned, however, against the systematic use of probability theory which may lead to unjustifiable and illegitimate precise answers. Mr Chojnacki's conclusions were that the importance of distinguishing variability and lack of knowledge increased as the problem was getting more and more complex in terms of number of parameters or time steps, and that it was necessary to develop uncertainty propagation methodologies combining probability theory and fuzzy theory

  10. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear-reactor-safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  11. LOFT uncertainty-analysis methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassahn, G.D.

    1983-01-01

    The methodology used for uncertainty analyses of measurements in the Loss-of-Fluid Test (LOFT) nuclear reactor safety research program is described and compared with other methodologies established for performing uncertainty analyses

  12. Cooling Tower Losses in Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Barhm Mohamad

    2017-01-01

    Cooling towers are a very important part of many chemical plants. The primary task of a cooling tower is to reject heat into the atmosphere. They represent a relatively inexpensive and dependable means of removing low-grade heat from cooling water. The make-up water source is used to replenish water lost to evaporation. Hot water from heat exchangers is sent to the cooling tower. The water exits the cooling tower and is sent back to the exchangers or to other units for further cooling.

  13. Cooling concepts for HTS components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Binneberg, A.; Buschmann, H.; Neubert, J.

    1993-01-01

    HTS components require that low-cost, reliable cooling systems be used. There are no general solutions to such systems. Any cooling concept has to be tailored to the specific requirements of a system. The following has to he taken into consideration when designing cooling concepts: - cooling temperature - constancy and controllability of the cooling temperature - cooling load and refrigerating capacity - continuous or discontinuous mode - degree of automation - full serviceability or availability before evacuation -malfunctions caused by microphonic, thermal or electromagnetic effects -stationary or mobile application - investment and operating costs (orig.)

  14. Cooling out of the blue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmid, W.

    2006-01-01

    This article takes a look at solar cooling and air-conditioning, the use of which is becoming more and more popular. The article discusses how further research and development is necessary. The main challenge for professional experts is the optimal adaptation of building, building technology and solar-driven cooling systems to meet these new requirements. Various solar cooling technologies are looked at, including the use of surplus heat for the generation of cold for cooling systems. Small-scale solar cooling systems now being tested in trials are described. Various developments in Europe are discussed, as are the future chances for solar cooling in the market

  15. Use of a temperature-initiated passive cooling system (TIPACS) for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Forsberg, C.W.; Conklin, J.; Reich, W.J.

    1994-04-01

    A new type of passive cooling system has been invented (Forsberg 1993): the Temperature-Initiated Passive Cooling System (TIPACS). The characteristics of the TIPACS potentially match requirements for an improved reactor-cavity-cooling system (RCCS) for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR). This report is an initial evaluation of the TIPACS for the MHTGR with a Rankines (steam) power conversion cycle. Limited evaluations were made of applying the TIPACS to MHTGRs with reactor pressure vessel temperatures up to 450 C. These temperatures may occur in designs of Brayton cycle (gas turbine) and process heat MHTGRs. The report is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the containment cooling issues associated with the MHTGR and the requirements for such a cooling system. Section 3 describes TIPACS in nonmathematical terms. Section 4 describes TIPACS's heat-removal capabilities. Section 5 analyzes the operation of the temperature-control mechanism that determines under what conditions the TIPACS rejects heat to the environment. Section 6 addresses other design and operational issues. Section 7 identifies uncertainties, and Section 8 provides conclusions. The appendixes provide the detailed data and models used in the analysis

  16. Use of a temperature-initiated passive cooling system (TIPACS) for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Forsberg, C.W.; Conklin, J.; Reich, W.J.

    1994-04-01

    A new type of passive cooling system has been invented (Forsberg 1993): the Temperature-Initiated Passive Cooling System (TIPACS). The characteristics of the TIPACS potentially match requirements for an improved reactor-cavity-cooling system (RCCS) for the modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (MHTGR). This report is an initial evaluation of the TIPACS for the MHTGR with a Rankines (steam) power conversion cycle. Limited evaluations were made of applying the TIPACS to MHTGRs with reactor pressure vessel temperatures up to 450 C. These temperatures may occur in designs of Brayton cycle (gas turbine) and process heat MHTGRs. The report is structured as follows. Section 2 describes the containment cooling issues associated with the MHTGR and the requirements for such a cooling system. Section 3 describes TIPACS in nonmathematical terms. Section 4 describes TIPACS`s heat-removal capabilities. Section 5 analyzes the operation of the temperature-control mechanism that determines under what conditions the TIPACS rejects heat to the environment. Section 6 addresses other design and operational issues. Section 7 identifies uncertainties, and Section 8 provides conclusions. The appendixes provide the detailed data and models used in the analysis.

  17. Improvement of Cooling Performance of a Compact Thermoelectric Air Conditioner Using a Direct Evaporative Cooling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tipsaenporm, W.; Lertsatitthanakorn, C.; Bubphachot, B.; Rungsiyopas, M.; Soponronnarit, S.

    2012-06-01

    This paper presents the results of tests carried out to investigate the potential application of a direct evaporative cooling (DEC) system for improving the performance of a compact thermoelectric (TE) air conditioner. The compact TE air conditioner is composed of three TE modules. The cold and hot sides of the TE modules were fixed to rectangular fin heat sinks. The DEC system produced cooling air that was used to assist the release of heat from the heat sinks at the hot side of the TE modules. The results showed that the cooling air dry bulb temperature from the DEC system achieved drops of about 5.9°C in parallel with about a 33.4% rise in relative humidity. The cooling efficiency of the DEC system varies between 72.1% and 81.5%. It increases the cooling capacity of the compact TE air conditioner from 53.0 W to 74.5 W. The 21.5 W (40.6%) increase represents the difference between the compact air conditioner operating with ambient air flowing through the TE module's heat sinks, and the compact air conditioner operating with the cooler air from the DEC system flowing through the TE module's heat sinks. In both scenarios, electric current of 4.5 A was supplied to the TE modules. It also has been experimentally proven that the coefficient of performance (COP) of the compact TE air conditioner can be improved by up to 20.9% by incorporating the DEC system.

  18. ESFR core optimization and uncertainty studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rineiski, A.; Vezzoni, B.; Zhang, D.; Marchetti, M.; Gabrielli, F.; Maschek, W.; Chen, X.-N.; Buiron, L.; Krepel, J.; Sun, K.; Mikityuk, K.; Polidoro, F.; Rochman, D.; Koning, A.J.; DaCruz, D.F.; Tsige-Tamirat, H.; Sunderland, R.

    2015-01-01

    In the European Sodium Fast Reactor (ESFR) project supported by EURATOM in 2008-2012, a concept for a large 3600 MWth sodium-cooled fast reactor design was investigated. In particular, reference core designs with oxide and carbide fuel were optimized to improve their safety parameters. Uncertainties in these parameters were evaluated for the oxide option. Core modifications were performed first to reduce the sodium void reactivity effect. Introduction of a large sodium plenum with an absorber layer above the core and a lower axial fertile blanket improve the total sodium void effect appreciably, bringing it close to zero for a core with fresh fuel, in line with results obtained worldwide, while not influencing substantially other core physics parameters. Therefore an optimized configuration, CONF2, with a sodium plenum and a lower blanket was established first and used as a basis for further studies in view of deterioration of safety parameters during reactor operation. Further options to study were an inner fertile blanket, introduction of moderator pins, a smaller core height, special designs for pins, such as 'empty' pins, and subassemblies. These special designs were proposed to facilitate melted fuel relocation in order to avoid core re-criticality under severe accident conditions. In the paper further CONF2 modifications are compared in terms of safety and fuel balance. They may bring further improvements in safety, but their accurate assessment requires additional studies, including transient analyses. Uncertainty studies were performed by employing a so-called Total Monte-Carlo method, for which a large number of nuclear data files is produced for single isotopes and then used in Monte-Carlo calculations. The uncertainties for the criticality, sodium void and Doppler effects, effective delayed neutron fraction due to uncertainties in basic nuclear data were assessed for an ESFR core. They prove applicability of the available nuclear data for ESFR

  19. Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G.; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

    2016-01-01

    Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if

  20. Magnetocaloric Effect and Thermoelectric Cooling - A Synergistic Cooling Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-16

    Thermoelectric Cooling - A Synergistic Cooling Technology Sb. GRANT NUMBER N00173-14-1-G016 Sc. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 82-2020-17 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d...Magnetocaloric Effect and Thermoelectric Cooling - A Synergistic Cooling Technology NRL Grant N00173-14-l-G016 CODE 8200: Spacecraft Engineering Department...82-11-0 1: Space and Space Systems Technology General Engineering & Research, L.L.C. Technical & Administrative point of contact: Dr. Robin

  1. Investment and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Greasley, David; Madsen, Jakob B.

    2006-01-01

    A severe collapse of fixed capital formation distinguished the onset of the Great Depression from other investment downturns between the world wars. Using a model estimated for the years 1890-2000, we show that the expected profitability of capital measured by Tobin's q, and the uncertainty...... surrounding expected profits indicated by share price volatility, were the chief influences on investment levels, and that heightened share price volatility played the dominant role in the crucial investment collapse in 1930. Investment did not simply follow the downward course of income at the onset...

  2. Optimization under Uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Lopez, Rafael H.

    2016-01-06

    The goal of this poster is to present the main approaches to optimization of engineering systems in the presence of uncertainties. We begin by giving an insight about robust optimization. Next, we detail how to deal with probabilistic constraints in optimization, the so called the reliability based design. Subsequently, we present the risk optimization approach, which includes the expected costs of failure in the objective function. After that the basic description of each approach is given, the projects developed by CORE are presented. Finally, the main current topic of research of CORE is described.

  3. Optimizing production under uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Svend

    This Working Paper derives criteria for optimal production under uncertainty based on the state-contingent approach (Chambers and Quiggin, 2000), and discusses po-tential problems involved in applying the state-contingent approach in a normative context. The analytical approach uses the concept...... of state-contingent production functions and a definition of inputs including both sort of input, activity and alloca-tion technology. It also analyses production decisions where production is combined with trading in state-contingent claims such as insurance contracts. The final part discusses...

  4. Commonplaces and social uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Inger

    2008-01-01

    This article explores the concept of uncertainty in four focus group discussions about genetically modified food. In the discussions, members of the general public interact with food biotechnology scientists while negotiating their attitudes towards genetic engineering. Their discussions offer...... an example of risk discourse in which the use of commonplaces seems to be a central feature (Myers 2004: 81). My analyses support earlier findings that commonplaces serve important interactional purposes (Barton 1999) and that they are used for mitigating disagreement, for closing topics and for facilitating...

  5. Principles of Uncertainty

    CERN Document Server

    Kadane, Joseph B

    2011-01-01

    An intuitive and mathematical introduction to subjective probability and Bayesian statistics. An accessible, comprehensive guide to the theory of Bayesian statistics, Principles of Uncertainty presents the subjective Bayesian approach, which has played a pivotal role in game theory, economics, and the recent boom in Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Both rigorous and friendly, the book contains: Introductory chapters examining each new concept or assumption Just-in-time mathematics -- the presentation of ideas just before they are applied Summary and exercises at the end of each chapter Discus

  6. Mathematical Analysis of Uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angel GARRIDO

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Classical Logic showed early its insufficiencies for solving AI problems. The introduction of Fuzzy Logic aims at this problem. There have been research in the conventional Rough direction alone or in the Fuzzy direction alone, and more recently, attempts to combine both into Fuzzy Rough Sets or Rough Fuzzy Sets. We analyse some new and powerful tools in the study of Uncertainty, as the Probabilistic Graphical Models, Chain Graphs, Bayesian Networks, and Markov Networks, integrating our knowledge of graphs and probability.

  7. Maximum respiratory pressure measuring system : calibration and evaluation of uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ferreira, J.L.; Pereira, N.C.; Oliveira Júnior, M.; Vasconcelos, F.H.; Parreira, V.F.; Tierra-Criollo, C.J.

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a methodology for the evaluation of uncertainties in the measurements results obtained during the calibration of a digital manovacuometer prototype (DM) with a load cell sensor pressure device incorporated. Calibration curves were obtained for both pressure

  8. What is the uncertainty principle of non-relativistic quantum mechanics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riggs, Peter J.

    2018-05-01

    After more than ninety years of discussions over the uncertainty principle, there is still no universal agreement on what the principle states. The Robertson uncertainty relation (incorporating standard deviations) is given as the mathematical expression of the principle in most quantum mechanics textbooks. However, the uncertainty principle is not merely a statement of what any of the several uncertainty relations affirm. It is suggested that a better approach would be to present the uncertainty principle as a statement about the probability distributions of incompatible variables and the resulting restrictions on quantum states.

  9. Liquid metal cooled nuclear reactor constructions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aspden, G.J.; Allbeson, K.F.

    1984-01-01

    In a liquid metal cooled nuclear reactor with a nuclear fuel assembly in a coolant-containing primary vessel housed within a concrete containment vault, there is thermal insulation to protect the concrete, the insulation being disposed between vessel and concrete and being hung from metal structure secured to and projecting from the concrete, the insulation consisting of a plurality of adjoining units each unit incorporating a pack of thermal insulating material and defining a contained void co-extensive with said pack and situated between pack and concrete, the void of each unit being connected to the voids of adjoining units so as to form continuous ducting for a fluid coolant. (author)

  10. Experimental tests and qualification of analytical methods to address thermohydraulic phenomena in advanced water cooled reactors. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2000-05-01

    Worldwide there is considerable experience in nuclear power technology, especially in water cooled reactor technology. Of the operating plants, in September 1998, 346 were light water reactors (LWRs) totalling 306 GW(e) and 29 were heavy water reactors (HWRs) totalling 15 GW(e). The accumulated experience and lessons learned from these plants are being incorporated into new advanced reactor designs. Utility requirements documents have been formulated to guide these design activities by incorporating this experience, and results from research and development programmes, with the aim of reducing costs and licensing uncertainties by establishing the technical bases for the new designs. Common goals for advanced designs are high availability, user-friendly features, competitive economics and compliance with internationally recognized safety objectives. Large water cooled reactors with power outputs of 1300 MW(e) and above, which possess inherent safety characteristics (e.g. negative Doppler moderator temperature coefficients, and negative moderator void coefficient) and incorporate proven, active engineered systems to accomplish safety functions are being developed. Other designs with power outputs from, for example, 220 MW(e) up to about 1300 MW(e) which also possess inherent safety characteristics and which place more emphasis on utilization of passive safety systems are being developed. Passive systems are based on natural forces and phenomena such as natural convection and gravity, making safety functions less dependent on active systems and components like pumps and diesel generators. In some cases, further experimental tests for the thermohydraulic conditions of interest in advanced designs can provide improved understanding of the phenomena. Further, analytical methods to predict reactor thermohydraulic behaviour can be qualified for use by comparison with the experimental results. These activities should ultimately result in more economical designs. The

  11. Investment, regulation, and uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, Stuart J; McDonald, Jillian; Falck-Zepeda, Jose

    2014-01-01

    As with any technological innovation, time refines the technology, improving upon the original version of the innovative product. The initial GM crops had single traits for either herbicide tolerance or insect resistance. Current varieties have both of these traits stacked together and in many cases other abiotic and biotic traits have also been stacked. This innovation requires investment. While this is relatively straight forward, certain conditions need to exist such that investments can be facilitated. The principle requirement for investment is that regulatory frameworks render consistent and timely decisions. If the certainty of regulatory outcomes weakens, the potential for changes in investment patterns increases.   This article provides a summary background to the leading plant breeding technologies that are either currently being used to develop new crop varieties or are in the pipeline to be applied to plant breeding within the next few years. Challenges for existing regulatory systems are highlighted. Utilizing an option value approach from investment literature, an assessment of uncertainty regarding the regulatory approval for these varying techniques is undertaken. This research highlights which technology development options have the greatest degree of uncertainty and hence, which ones might be expected to see an investment decline. PMID:24499745

  12. Probabilistic Mass Growth Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumer, Eric; Elliott, Darren

    2013-01-01

    Mass has been widely used as a variable input parameter for Cost Estimating Relationships (CER) for space systems. As these space systems progress from early concept studies and drawing boards to the launch pad, their masses tend to grow substantially, hence adversely affecting a primary input to most modeling CERs. Modeling and predicting mass uncertainty, based on historical and analogous data, is therefore critical and is an integral part of modeling cost risk. This paper presents the results of a NASA on-going effort to publish mass growth datasheet for adjusting single-point Technical Baseline Estimates (TBE) of masses of space instruments as well as spacecraft, for both earth orbiting and deep space missions at various stages of a project's lifecycle. This paper will also discusses the long term strategy of NASA Headquarters in publishing similar results, using a variety of cost driving metrics, on an annual basis. This paper provides quantitative results that show decreasing mass growth uncertainties as mass estimate maturity increases. This paper's analysis is based on historical data obtained from the NASA Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) database.

  13. Combination of low energy and mechanical cooling technologies for buildings in Central Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lain, M.; Hensen, J.L.M.

    2004-01-01

    This paper discusses options for incorporating low energy cooling technologies combined with standard mechanical cooling in buildings in central Europe. Case studies, design recommendations and role of computer simulation of building and system in the design process are presented. Applicability of

  14. Magnetic entropy and cooling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Britt Rosendahl; Kuhn, Luise Theil; Bahl, Christian Robert Haffenden

    2010-01-01

    Some manifestations of magnetism are well-known and utilized on an everyday basis, e.g. using a refrigerator magnet for hanging that important note on the refrigerator door. Others are, so far, more exotic, such as cooling by making use of the magnetocaloric eect. This eect can cause a change...... in the temperature of a magnetic material when a magnetic eld is applied or removed. For many years, experimentalists have made use of dilute paramagnetic materials to achieve milliKelvin temperatures by use of the magnetocaloric eect. Also, research is done on materials, which might be used for hydrogen, helium...... or nitrogen liquefaction or for room-temperature cooling. The magnetocaloric eect can further be used to determine phase transition boundaries, if a change in the magnetic state occurs at the boundary.In this talk, I will introduce the magnetocaloric eect (MCE) and the two equations, which characterize...

  15. Self pumping magnetic cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaudhary, V; Wang, Z; Ray, A; Ramanujan, R V; Sridhar, I

    2017-01-01

    Efficient thermal management and heat recovery devices are of high technological significance for innovative energy conservation solutions. We describe a study of a self-pumping magnetic cooling device, which does not require external energy input, employing Mn–Zn ferrite nanoparticles suspended in water. The device performance depends strongly on magnetic field strength, nanoparticle content in the fluid and heat load temperature. Cooling (Δ T ) by ∼20 °C and ∼28 °C was achieved by the application of 0.3 T magnetic field when the initial temperature of the heat load was 64 °C and 87 °C, respectively. These experiments results were in good agreement with simulations performed with COMSOL Multiphysics. Our system is a self-regulating device; as the heat load increases, the magnetization of the ferrofluid decreases; leading to an increase in the fluid velocity and consequently, faster heat transfer from the heat source to the heat sink. (letter)

  16. Laser cooling at resonance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yudkin, Yaakov; Khaykovich, Lev

    2018-05-01

    We show experimentally that three-dimensional laser cooling of lithium atoms on the D2 line is possible when the laser light is tuned exactly to resonance with the dominant atomic transition. Qualitatively, it can be understood by applying simple Doppler cooling arguments to the specific hyperfine structure of the excited state of lithium atoms, which is both dense and inverted. However, to build a quantitative theory, we must resolve to a full model which takes into account both the entire atomic structure of all 24 Zeeman sublevels and the laser light polarization. Moreover, by means of Monte Carlo simulations, we show that coherent processes play an important role in showing consistency between the theory and the experimental results.

  17. ITER cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natalizio, A.; Hollies, R.E.; Sochaski, R.O.; Stubley, P.H.

    1992-06-01

    The ITER reference system uses low-temperature water for heat removal and high-temperature helium for bake-out. As these systems share common equipment, bake-out cannot be performed until the cooling system is drained and dried, and the reactor cannot be started until the helium has been purged from the cooling system. This study examines the feasibility of using a single high-temperature fluid to perform both heat removal and bake-out. The high temperature required for bake-out would also be in the range for power production. The study examines cost, operational benefits, and impact on reactor safety of two options: a high-pressure water system, and a low-pressure organic system. It was concluded that the cost savings and operational benefits are significant; there are no significant adverse safety impacts from operating either the water system or the organic system; and the capital costs of both systems are comparable

  18. Embracing uncertainty in applied ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milner-Gulland, E J; Shea, K

    2017-12-01

    Applied ecologists often face uncertainty that hinders effective decision-making.Common traps that may catch the unwary are: ignoring uncertainty, acknowledging uncertainty but ploughing on, focussing on trivial uncertainties, believing your models, and unclear objectives.We integrate research insights and examples from a wide range of applied ecological fields to illustrate advances that are generally underused, but could facilitate ecologists' ability to plan and execute research to support management.Recommended approaches to avoid uncertainty traps are: embracing models, using decision theory, using models more effectively, thinking experimentally, and being realistic about uncertainty. Synthesis and applications . Applied ecologists can become more effective at informing management by using approaches that explicitly take account of uncertainty.

  19. Oil price uncertainty in Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Elder, John [Department of Finance and Real Estate, 1272 Campus Delivery, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523 (United States); Serletis, Apostolos [Department of Economics, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2009-11-15

    Bernanke [Bernanke, Ben S. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics 98 (1983), 85-106.] shows how uncertainty about energy prices may induce optimizing firms to postpone investment decisions, thereby leading to a decline in aggregate output. Elder and Serletis [Elder, John and Serletis, Apostolos. Oil price uncertainty.] find empirical evidence that uncertainty about oil prices has tended to depress investment in the United States. In this paper we assess the robustness of these results by investigating the effects of oil price uncertainty in Canada. Our results are remarkably similar to existing results for the United States, providing additional evidence that uncertainty about oil prices may provide another explanation for why the sharp oil price declines of 1985 failed to produce rapid output growth. Impulse-response analysis suggests that uncertainty about oil prices may tend to reinforce the negative response of output to positive oil shocks. (author)

  20. Quantification of margins and uncertainties: Alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Helton, Jon C.; Johnson, Jay D.

    2011-01-01

    In 2001, the National Nuclear Security Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy in conjunction with the national security laboratories (i.e., Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories) initiated development of a process designated Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) for the use of risk assessment methodologies in the certification of the reliability and safety of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile. A previous presentation, 'Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties: Conceptual and Computational Basis,' describes the basic ideas that underlie QMU and illustrates these ideas with two notional examples that employ probability for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. The current presentation introduces and illustrates the use of interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory as alternatives to the use of probability theory for the representation of epistemic uncertainty in QMU-type analyses. The following topics are considered: the mathematical structure of alternative representations of uncertainty, alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving only epistemic uncertainty, and alternative representations of epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses involving a separation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Analyses involving interval analysis, possibility theory and evidence theory are illustrated with the same two notional examples used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses.

  1. Uncertainties related to the fault tree reliability data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostol, Minodora; Nitoi, Mirela; Farcasiu, M.

    2003-01-01

    Uncertainty analyses related to the fault trees evaluate the system variability which appears from the uncertainties of the basic events probabilities. Having a logical model which describes a system, to obtain outcomes means to evaluate it, using estimations for each basic event of the model. If the model has basic events that incorporate uncertainties, then the results of the model should incorporate the uncertainties of the events. Uncertainties estimation in the final result of the fault tree means first the uncertainties evaluation for the basic event probabilities and then combination of these uncertainties, to calculate the top event uncertainty. To calculate the propagating uncertainty, a knowledge of the probability density function as well as the range of possible values of the basic event probabilities is required. The following data are defined, using suitable probability density function: the components failure rates; the human error probabilities; the initiating event frequencies. It was supposed that the possible value distribution of the basic event probabilities is given by the lognormal probability density function. To know the range of possible value of the basic event probabilities, the error factor or the uncertainty factor is required. The aim of this paper is to estimate the error factor for the failure rates and for the human errors probabilities from the reliability data base used in Cernavoda Probabilistic Safety Evaluation. The top event chosen as an example is FEED3, from the Pressure and Inventory Control System. The quantitative evaluation of this top event was made by using EDFT code, developed in Institute for Nuclear Research Pitesti (INR). It was supposed that the error factors for the component failures are the same as for the failure rates. Uncertainty analysis was made with INCERT application, which uses the moment method and Monte Carlo method. The reliability data base used at INR Pitesti does not contain the error factors (ef

  2. Cooling your home naturally

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1994-10-01

    This fact sheet describes some alternatives to air conditioning which are common sense suggestions and low-cost retrofit options to cool a house. It first describes how to reflect heat away from roofs, walls, and windows. Blocking heat by using insulation or shading are described. The publication then discusses removing built-up heat, reducing heat-generating sources, and saving energy by selecting energy efficient retrofit appliances. A resource list is provided for further information.

  3. Cooling and dehumidifying coils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murthy, M.V.K.

    1988-01-01

    The operating features of cooling and dehumidifying coils and their constructional details are discussed. The heat transfer relations as applicable to the boiling refrigerant and a single phase fluid are presented. Methods of accounting for the effect of moisture condensation on the air side heat transfer coefficient and the fin effectiveness are explained. The logic flow necessary to analyze direct expansion coils and chilled water coils is discussed

  4. Solar heating and cooling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffie, J A

    1976-01-01

    Solar energy is discussed as an energy resource that can be converted into useful energy forms to meet a variety of energy needs. The review briefly explains the nature of this energy resource, the kinds of applications that can be made useful, and the status of several systems to which it has been applied. More specifically, information on solar collectors, solar water heating, solar heating of buildings, solar cooling plus other applications, are included.

  5. Conduction cooling: multicrate fastbus hardware

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makowiecki, D.; Sims, W.; Larsen, R.

    1980-11-01

    Described is a new and novel approach for cooling nuclear instrumentation modules via heat conduction. The simplicity of liquid cooled crates and ease of thermal management with conduction cooled modules are described. While this system was developed primarily for the higher power levels expected with Fastbus electronics, it has many general applications

  6. Lamination cooling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rippel, Wally E.; Kobayashi, Daryl M.

    2005-10-11

    An electric motor, transformer or inductor having a lamination cooling system including a stack of laminations, each defining a plurality of apertures at least partially coincident with apertures of adjacent laminations. The apertures define a plurality of cooling-fluid passageways through the lamination stack, and gaps between the adjacent laminations are sealed to prevent a liquid cooling fluid in the passageways from escaping between the laminations. The gaps are sealed by injecting a heat-cured sealant into the passageways, expelling excess sealant, and heat-curing the lamination stack. The apertures of each lamination can be coincident with the same-sized apertures of adjacent laminations to form straight passageways, or they can vary in size, shape and/or position to form non-axial passageways, angled passageways, bidirectional passageways, and manifold sections of passageways that connect a plurality of different passageway sections. Manifold members adjoin opposite ends of the lamination stack, and each is configured with one or more cavities to act as a manifold to adjacent passageway ends. Complex manifold arrangements can create bidirectional flow in a variety of patterns.

  7. ITER cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kveton, O.K.

    1990-11-01

    The present specification of the ITER cooling system does not permit its operation with water above 150 C. However, the first wall needs to be heated to higher temperatures during conditioning at 250 C and bake-out at 350 C. In order to use the cooling water for these operations the cooling system would have to operate during conditioning at 37 Bar and during bake-out at 164 Bar. This is undesirable from the safety analysis point of view, and alternative heating methods are to be found. This review suggests that superheated steam or gas heating can be used for both baking and conditioning. The blanket design must consider the use of dual heat transfer media, allowing for change from one to another in both directions. Transfer from water to gas or steam is the most intricate and risky part of the entire heating process. Superheated steam conditioning appears unfavorable. The use of inert gas is recommended, although alternative heating fluids such as organic coolant should be investigated

  8. Reactor container cooling device

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ando, Koji; Kinoshita, Shoichiro

    1995-11-10

    The device of the present invention efficiently lowers pressure and temperature in a reactor container upon occurrence of a severe accident in a BWR-type reactor and can cool the inside of the container for a long period of time. That is, (1) pipelines on the side of an exhaustion tower of a filter portion in a filter bent device of the reactor container are in communication with pipelines on the side of a steam inlet of a static container cooling device by way of horizontal pipelines, (2) a back flow check valve is disposed to horizontal pipelines, (3) a steam discharge valve for a pressure vessel is disposed closer to the reactor container than the joint portion between the pipelines on the side of the steam inlet and the horizontal pipelines. Upon occurrence of a severe accident, when the pressure vessel should be ruptured and steams containing aerosol in the reactor core should be filled in the reactor container, the inlet valve of the static container cooling device is closed. Steams are flown into the filter bent device of the reactor container, where the aerosols can be removed. (I.S.).

  9. Emergency core cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abe, Nobuaki.

    1993-01-01

    A reactor comprises a static emergency reactor core cooling system having an automatic depressurization system and a gravitationally dropping type water injection system and a container cooling system by an isolation condenser. A depressurization pipeline of the automatic depressurization system connected to a reactor pressure vessel branches in the midway. The branched depressurizing pipelines are extended into an upper dry well and a lower dry well, in which depressurization valves are disposed at the top end portions of the pipelines respectively. If loss-of-coolant accidents should occur, the depressurization valve of the automatic depressurization system is actuated by lowering of water level in the pressure vessel. This causes nitrogen gases in the upper and the lower dry wells to transfer together with discharged steams effectively to a suppression pool passing through a bent tube. Accordingly, the gravitationally dropping type water injection system can be actuated faster. Further, subsequent cooling for the reactor vessel can be ensured sufficiently by the isolation condenser. (I.N.)

  10. Proceedings: Cooling tower and advanced cooling systems conference

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-02-01

    This Cooling Tower and Advanced Cooling Systems Conference was held August 30 through September 1, 1994, in St. Petersburg, Florida. The conference was sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and hosted by Florida Power Corporation to bring together utility representatives, manufacturers, researchers, and consultants. Nineteen technical papers were presented in four sessions. These sessions were devoted to the following topics: cooling tower upgrades and retrofits, cooling tower performance, cooling tower fouling, and dry and hybrid systems. On the final day, panel discussions addressed current issues in cooling tower operation and maintenance as well as research and technology needs for power plant cooling. More than 100 people attended the conference. This report contains the technical papers presented at the conference. Of the 19 papers, five concern cooling tower upgrades and retrofits, five to cooling tower performance, four discuss cooling tower fouling, and five describe dry and hybrid cooling systems. Selected papers are indexed separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database

  11. Passive ventilation systems with heat recovery and night cooling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hviid, Christian Anker; Svendsen, Svend

    2008-01-01

    with little energy consumption and with satisfying indoor climate. The concept is based on using passive measures like stack and wind driven ventilation, effective night cooling and low pressure loss heat recovery using two fluid coupled water-to-air heat exchangers developed at the Technical University......In building design the requirements for energy consumption for ventilation, heating and cooling and the requirements for increasingly better indoor climate are two opposing factors. This paper presents the schematic layout and simulation results of an innovative multifunc-tional ventilation concept...... of Denmark. Through building integration in high performance offices the system is optimized to incorporate multiple functions like heating, cooling and ventilation, thus saving the expenses of separate cooling and heating systems. The simulation results are derived using the state-of-the-art building...

  12. Cooling lubricants; Kuehlschmierstoffe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pfeiffer, W. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Breuer, D. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Blome, H. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Deininger, C. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Hahn, J.U. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Kleine, H. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Nies, E. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Pflaumbaum, W. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Stockmann, R. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Willert, G. [Berufsgenossenschaftliches Inst. fuer Arbeitssicherheit, St. Augustin (Germany); Sonnenschein, G. [Maschinenbau- und Metall-Berufsgenossenschaft, Duesseldorf (Germany)

    1996-08-01

    As a rule, the base substances used are certain liquid hydrocarbons from mineral oils as well as from native and synthetic oils. Through the addition of further substances the cooling lubricant takes on the particular qualities required for the use in question. Employees working with cooling lubricants are exposed to various hazards. The assessment of the concentrations at the work station is carried out on the basis of existing technical rules for contact with hazardous substances. However, the application/implementation of compulsory investigation and supervision in accordance with these rules is made difficult by the fact that cooling lubricants are, as a rule, made up of complicated compound mixtures. In addition to protecting employees from exposure to mists and vapours from the cooling lubricants, protection for the skin is also of particular importance. Cooling lubricants should not, if at all possible, be brought into contact with the skin. Cleansing the skin and skin care is just as important as changing working clothes regularly, and hygiene and cleanliness at the workplace. Unavoidable emissions are to be immediately collected at the point where they arise or are released and safely disposed of. This means taking into account all sources of emissions. The programme presented in this report therefore gives a very detailed account of the individual protective measures and provides recommendations for the design of technical protection facilities. (orig./MG) [Deutsch] Als Basisstoffe dienen in der Regel bestimmte fluessige Kohlenwasserstoffverbindungen aus Mineraloelen sowie aus nativen oder synthetischen Oelen. Durch die Zugabe von weiteren Stoffen erlangt der Kuehlschmierstoff seine fuer den jeweiligen Anwendungsabfall geforderten Eigenschaften. Beschaeftigte, die mit Kuehlschmierstoffen umgehen, sind unterschiedliche Gefahren ausgesetzt. Die Beurteilung der Kuehlschmierstoffkonzentrationen in der Luft am Arbeitsplatz erfolgt auf der Grundlage bestehender

  13. Cooling of molecular ion beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolf, A.; Krohn, S.; Kreckel, H.; Lammich, L.; Lange, M.; Strasser, D.; Grieser, M.; Schwalm, D.; Zajfman, D.

    2004-01-01

    An overview of the use of stored ion beams and phase space cooling (electron cooling) is given for the field of molecular physics. Emphasis is given to interactions between molecular ions and electrons studied in the electron cooler: dissociative recombination and, for internally excited molecular ions, electron-induced ro-vibrational cooling. Diagnostic methods for the transverse ion beam properties and for the internal excitation of the molecular ions are discussed, and results for phase space cooling and internal (vibrational) cooling are presented for hydrogen molecular ions

  14. Improve crossflow cooling tower operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burger, R.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports how various crossflow cooling tower elements can be upgraded. A typical retrofit example is presented. In the past decade, cooling tower technology has progressed. If a cooling tower is over ten years old, chances are the heat transfer media and mechanical equipment were designed over 30 to 40 years ago. When a chemical plant expansion is projected or a facility desires to upgrade its equipment for greater output and energy efficiency, the cooling tower is usually neglected until someone discovers that the limiting factor of production is the quality of cold water returning from the cooling tower

  15. Heisenberg's principle of uncertainty and the uncertainty relations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redei, Miklos

    1987-01-01

    The usual verbal form of the Heisenberg uncertainty principle and the usual mathematical formulation (the so-called uncertainty theorem) are not equivalent. The meaning of the concept 'uncertainty' is not unambiguous and different interpretations are used in the literature. Recently a renewed interest has appeared to reinterpret and reformulate the precise meaning of Heisenberg's principle and to find adequate mathematical form. The suggested new theorems are surveyed and critically analyzed. (D.Gy.) 20 refs

  16. Passive Two-Phase Cooling of Automotive Power Electronics: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moreno, G.; Jeffers, J. R.; Narumanchi, S.; Bennion, K.

    2014-08-01

    Experiments were conducted to evaluate the use of a passive two-phase cooling strategy as a means of cooling automotive power electronics. The proposed cooling approach utilizes an indirect cooling configuration to alleviate some reliability concerns and to allow the use of conventional power modules. An inverter-scale proof-of-concept cooling system was fabricated, and tests were conducted using the refrigerants hydrofluoroolefin HFO-1234yf and hydrofluorocarbon HFC-245fa. Results demonstrated that the system can dissipate at least 3.5 kW of heat with 250 cm3 of HFC-245fa. An advanced evaporator design that incorporates features to improve performance and reduce size was conceived. Simulation results indicate its thermal resistance can be 37% to 48% lower than automotive dual side cooled power modules. Tests were also conducted to measure the thermal performance of two air-cooled condensers--plain and rifled finned tube designs. The results combined with some analysis were then used to estimate the required condenser size per operating conditions and maximum allowable system (i.e., vapor and liquid) temperatures.

  17. A model for radionuclide transport in the Cooling Water System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kahook, S.D.

    1992-08-01

    A radionuclide transport model developed to assess radiological levels in the K-reactor Cooling Water System (CWS) in the event of an inadvertent process water (PW) leakage to the cooling water (CW) in the heat exchangers (HX) is described. During and following a process water leak, the radionuclide transport model determines the time-dependent release rates of radionuclide from the cooling water system to the environment via evaporation to the atmosphere and blow-down to the Savannah River. The developed model allows for delay times associated with the transport of the cooling water radioactivity through cooling water system components. Additionally, this model simulates the time-dependent behavior of radionuclides levels in various CWS components. The developed model is incorporated into the K-reactor Cooling Tower Activity (KCTA) code. KCTA allows the accident (heat exchanger leak rate) and the cooling tower blow-down and evaporation rates to be described as time-dependent functions. Thus, the postulated leak and the consequence of the assumed leak can be modelled realistically. This model is the first of three models to be ultimately assembled to form a comprehensive Liquid Pathway Activity System (LPAS). LPAS will offer integrated formation, transport, deposition, and release estimates for radionuclides formed in a SRS facility. Process water and river water modules are forthcoming as input and downstream components, respectively, for KCTA

  18. Energy and Uncertainty in General Relativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooperstock, F. I.; Dupre, M. J.

    2018-03-01

    The issue of energy and its potential localizability in general relativity has challenged physicists for more than a century. Many non-invariant measures were proposed over the years but an invariant measure was never found. We discovered the invariant localized energy measure by expanding the domain of investigation from space to spacetime. We note from relativity that the finiteness of the velocity of propagation of interactions necessarily induces indefiniteness in measurements. This is because the elements of actual physical systems being measured as well as their detectors are characterized by entire four-velocity fields, which necessarily leads to information from a measured system being processed by the detector in a spread of time. General relativity adds additional indefiniteness because of the variation in proper time between elements. The uncertainty is encapsulated in a generalized uncertainty principle, in parallel with that of Heisenberg, which incorporates the localized contribution of gravity to energy. This naturally leads to a generalized uncertainty principle for momentum as well. These generalized forms and the gravitational contribution to localized energy would be expected to be of particular importance in the regimes of ultra-strong gravitational fields. We contrast our invariant spacetime energy measure with the standard 3-space energy measure which is familiar from special relativity, appreciating why general relativity demands a measure in spacetime as opposed to 3-space. We illustrate the misconceptions by certain authors of our approach.

  19. Uncertainty as Certaint

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzinger, Tom

    I am trying to make money in the biotech industry from complexity science. And I am doing it with inspiration that I picked up on the edge of Appalachia spending time with June Holley and ACEnet when I was a Wall Street Journal reporter. I took some of those ideas to Pittsburgh, in biotechnology, in a completely private setting with an economic development focus, but also with a mission t o return profit to private capital. And we are doing that. I submit as a hypothesis, something we are figuring out in the post- industrial era, that business evolves. It is not the definition of business, but business critically involves the design of systems in which uncertainty is treated as a certainty. That is what I have seen and what I have tried to put into practice.

  20. Orientation and uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, H.P.; Hennen, L.

    1990-01-01

    The authors report on the results of three representative surveys that made a closer inquiry into perceptions and valuations of information and information sources concering Chernobyl. If turns out that the information sources are generally considered little trustworthy. This was generally attributable to the interpretation of the events being tied to attitudes in the atmonic energy issue. The greatest credit was given to television broadcasting. The authors summarize their discourse as follows: There is good reason to interpret the widespread uncertainty after Chernobyl as proof of the fact that large parts of the population are prepared and willing to assume a critical stance towards information and prefer to draw their information from various sources representing different positions. (orig.) [de

  1. DOD ELAP Lab Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-01

    ISO / IEC   17025  Inspection Bodies – ISO / IEC  17020  RMPs – ISO  Guide 34 (Reference...certify to :  ISO  9001 (QMS),  ISO  14001 (EMS),   TS 16949 (US Automotive)  etc. 2 3 DoD QSM 4.2 standard   ISO / IEC   17025 :2005  Each has uncertainty...IPV6, NLLAP, NEFAP  TRAINING Programs  Certification Bodies – ISO / IEC  17021  Accreditation for  Management System 

  2. Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

    2004-01-01

    . The project partnership aims (composed by 7 partners in 5 countries, thus covering a real European spread in high tech production technology) to develop and implement an advanced e-learning system that integrates contributions from quite different disciplines into a user-centred approach that strictly....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e-learning......This report is made as a part of the project ‘Metro-E-Learn: European e-Learning in Manufacturing Metrology’, an EU project under the program SOCRATES MINERVA (ODL and ICT in Education), Contract No: 101434-CP-1-2002-1-DE-MINERVA, coordinated by Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen...

  3. Decision making under uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cyert, R.M.

    1989-01-01

    This paper reports on ways of improving the reliability of products and systems in this country if we are to survive as a first-rate industrial power. The use of statistical techniques have, since the 1920s, been viewed as one of the methods for testing quality and estimating the level of quality in a universe of output. Statistical quality control is not relevant, generally, to improving systems in an industry like yours, but certainly the use of probability concepts is of significance. In addition, when it is recognized that part of the problem involves making decisions under uncertainty, it becomes clear that techniques such as sequential decision making and Bayesian analysis become major methodological approaches that must be utilized

  4. Sustainability and uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint

    2007-01-01

    The widely used concept of sustainability is seldom precisely defined, and its clarification involves making up one's mind about a range of difficult questions. One line of research (bottom-up) takes sustaining a system over time as its starting point and then infers prescriptions from...... this requirement. Another line (top-down) takes an economical interpretation of the Brundtland Commission's suggestion that the present generation's needsatisfaction should not compromise the need-satisfaction of future generations as its starting point. It then measures sustainability at the level of society...... a clarified ethical goal, disagreements can arise. At present we do not know what substitutions will be possible in the future. This uncertainty clearly affects the prescriptions that follow from the measure of sustainability. Consequently, decisions about how to make future agriculture sustainable...

  5. 76 FR 66339 - Inaugural Roundtable of the Financial Reporting Series Entitled “Uncertainty in Financial...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-26

    ... uncertainty in an accounting measurement is less useful to investors and why a more certain measurement would be preferable. Likewise, provide feedback on those topics where a measurement with uncertainty gives... discussion to consider financial statement measurements (and associated disclosures) that incorporate...

  6. An uncertainty inventory demonstration - a primary step in uncertainty quantification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langenbrunner, James R. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Booker, Jane M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hemez, Francois M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Salazar, Issac F [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ross, Timothy J [UNM

    2009-01-01

    Tools, methods, and theories for assessing and quantifying uncertainties vary by application. Uncertainty quantification tasks have unique desiderata and circumstances. To realistically assess uncertainty requires the engineer/scientist to specify mathematical models, the physical phenomena of interest, and the theory or framework for assessments. For example, Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) specifically identifies uncertainties using probability theory, and therefore, PRA's lack formal procedures for quantifying uncertainties that are not probabilistic. The Phenomena Identification and Ranking Technique (PIRT) proceeds by ranking phenomena using scoring criteria that results in linguistic descriptors, such as importance ranked with words, 'High/Medium/Low.' The use of words allows PIRT to be flexible, but the analysis may then be difficult to combine with other uncertainty theories. We propose that a necessary step for the development of a procedure or protocol for uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the application of an Uncertainty Inventory. An Uncertainty Inventory should be considered and performed in the earliest stages of UQ.

  7. Cooling device in thermonuclear device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Honda, Tsutomu.

    1988-01-01

    Purpose: To prevent loss of cooling effect over the entire torus structure directly after accidental toubles in a cooling device of a thermonuclear device. Constitution: Coolant recycling means of a cooling device comprises two systems, which are alternately connected with in-flow pipeways and exit pipeways of adjacent modules. The modules are cooled by way of the in-flow pipeways and the exist pipeways connected to the respective modules by means of the coolant recycling means corresponding to the respective modules. So long as one of the coolant recycling means is kept operative, since every one other modules of the torus structure is still kept cooled, the heat generated from the module put therebetween, for which the coolant recycling is interrupted, is removed by means of heat conduction or radiation from the module for which the cooling is kept continued. No back-up emergency cooling system is required and it can provide high economic reliability. (Kamimura, M.)

  8. Planning ATES systems under uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaxa-Rozen, Marc; Kwakkel, Jan; Bloemendal, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (ATES) can contribute to significant reductions in energy use within the built environment, by providing seasonal energy storage in aquifers for the heating and cooling of buildings. ATES systems have experienced a rapid uptake over the last two decades; however, despite successful experiments at the individual level, the overall performance of ATES systems remains below expectations - largely due to suboptimal practices for the planning and operation of systems in urban areas. The interaction between ATES systems and underground aquifers can be interpreted as a common-pool resource problem, in which thermal imbalances or interference could eventually degrade the storage potential of the subsurface. Current planning approaches for ATES systems thus typically follow the precautionary principle. For instance, the permitting process in the Netherlands is intended to minimize thermal interference between ATES systems. However, as shown in recent studies (Sommer et al., 2015; Bakr et al., 2013), a controlled amount of interference may benefit the collective performance of ATES systems. An overly restrictive approach to permitting is instead likely to create an artificial scarcity of available space, limiting the potential of the technology in urban areas. In response, master plans - which take into account the collective arrangement of multiple systems - have emerged as an increasingly popular alternative. However, permits and master plans both take a static, ex ante view of ATES governance, making it difficult to predict the effect of evolving ATES use or climactic conditions on overall performance. In particular, the adoption of new systems by building operators is likely to be driven by the available subsurface space and by the performance of existing systems; these outcomes are themselves a function of planning parameters. From this perspective, the interactions between planning authorities, ATES operators, and subsurface conditions

  9. Temperature profiles of different cooling methods in porcine pancreas procurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weegman, Bradley P; Suszynski, Thomas M; Scott, William E; Ferrer Fábrega, Joana; Avgoustiniatos, Efstathios S; Anazawa, Takayuki; O'Brien, Timothy D; Rizzari, Michael D; Karatzas, Theodore; Jie, Tun; Sutherland, David E R; Hering, Bernhard J; Papas, Klearchos K

    2014-01-01

    Porcine islet xenotransplantation is a promising alternative to human islet allotransplantation. Porcine pancreas cooling needs to be optimized to reduce the warm ischemia time (WIT) following donation after cardiac death, which is associated with poorer islet isolation outcomes. This study examines the effect of four different cooling Methods on core porcine pancreas temperature (n = 24) and histopathology (n = 16). All Methods involved surface cooling with crushed ice and chilled irrigation. Method A, which is the standard for porcine pancreas procurement, used only surface cooling. Method B involved an intravascular flush with cold solution through the pancreas arterial system. Method C involved an intraductal infusion with cold solution through the major pancreatic duct, and Method D combined all three cooling Methods. Surface cooling alone (Method A) gradually decreased core pancreas temperature to <10 °C after 30 min. Using an intravascular flush (Method B) improved cooling during the entire duration of procurement, but incorporating an intraductal infusion (Method C) rapidly reduced core temperature 15-20 °C within the first 2 min of cooling. Combining all methods (Method D) was the most effective at rapidly reducing temperature and providing sustained cooling throughout the duration of procurement, although the recorded WIT was not different between Methods (P = 0.36). Histological scores were different between the cooling Methods (P = 0.02) and the worst with Method A. There were differences in histological scores between Methods A and C (P = 0.02) and Methods A and D (P = 0.02), but not between Methods C and D (P = 0.95), which may highlight the importance of early cooling using an intraductal infusion. In conclusion, surface cooling alone cannot rapidly cool large (porcine or human) pancreata. Additional cooling with an intravascular flush and intraductal infusion results in improved core porcine pancreas temperature profiles during procurement and

  10. Cooling water systems design using process integration

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Gololo, KV

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Cooling water systems are generally designed with a set of heat exchangers arranged in parallel. This arrangement results in higher cooling water flowrate and low cooling water return temperature thus reducing cooling tower efficiency. Previous...

  11. Essays on model uncertainty in financial models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Jing

    2018-01-01

    This dissertation studies model uncertainty, particularly in financial models. It consists of two empirical chapters and one theoretical chapter. The first empirical chapter (Chapter 2) classifies model uncertainty into parameter uncertainty and misspecification uncertainty. It investigates the

  12. Automated uncertainty analysis methods in the FRAP computer codes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peck, S.O.

    1980-01-01

    A user oriented, automated uncertainty analysis capability has been incorporated in the Fuel Rod Analysis Program (FRAP) computer codes. The FRAP codes have been developed for the analysis of Light Water Reactor fuel rod behavior during steady state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAP-T) conditions as part of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Water Reactor Safety Research Program. The objective of uncertainty analysis of these codes is to obtain estimates of the uncertainty in computed outputs of the codes is to obtain estimates of the uncertainty in computed outputs of the codes as a function of known uncertainties in input variables. This paper presents the methods used to generate an uncertainty analysis of a large computer code, discusses the assumptions that are made, and shows techniques for testing them. An uncertainty analysis of FRAP-T calculated fuel rod behavior during a hypothetical loss-of-coolant transient is presented as an example and carried through the discussion to illustrate the various concepts

  13. A new uncertainty importance measure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borgonovo, E.

    2007-01-01

    Uncertainty in parameters is present in many risk assessment problems and leads to uncertainty in model predictions. In this work, we introduce a global sensitivity indicator which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output (moment independence) and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. We discuss its mathematical properties and highlight the differences between the present indicator, variance-based uncertainty importance measures and a moment independent sensitivity indicator previously introduced in the literature. Numerical results are discussed with application to the probabilistic risk assessment model on which Iman [A matrix-based approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for fault trees. Risk Anal 1987;7(1):22-33] first introduced uncertainty importance measures

  14. Uncertainty Management and Sensitivity Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenbaum, Ralph K.; Georgiadis, Stylianos; Fantke, Peter

    2018-01-01

    Uncertainty is always there and LCA is no exception to that. The presence of uncertainties of different types and from numerous sources in LCA results is a fact, but managing them allows to quantify and improve the precision of a study and the robustness of its conclusions. LCA practice sometimes...... suffers from an imbalanced perception of uncertainties, justifying modelling choices and omissions. Identifying prevalent misconceptions around uncertainties in LCA is a central goal of this chapter, aiming to establish a positive approach focusing on the advantages of uncertainty management. The main...... objectives of this chapter are to learn how to deal with uncertainty in the context of LCA, how to quantify it, interpret and use it, and how to communicate it. The subject is approached more holistically than just focusing on relevant statistical methods or purely mathematical aspects. This chapter...

  15. Additivity of entropic uncertainty relations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Schwonnek

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available We consider the uncertainty between two pairs of local projective measurements performed on a multipartite system. We show that the optimal bound in any linear uncertainty relation, formulated in terms of the Shannon entropy, is additive. This directly implies, against naive intuition, that the minimal entropic uncertainty can always be realized by fully separable states. Hence, in contradiction to proposals by other authors, no entanglement witness can be constructed solely by comparing the attainable uncertainties of entangled and separable states. However, our result gives rise to a huge simplification for computing global uncertainty bounds as they now can be deduced from local ones. Furthermore, we provide the natural generalization of the Maassen and Uffink inequality for linear uncertainty relations with arbitrary positive coefficients.

  16. System design study of small lead-bismuth cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chikazawa, Yoshitaka; Hori, Toru; Konomura, Mamoru

    2003-07-01

    In phase II of the feasibility study of JNC, we will make a concept of a dispersion power source reactor with various requirements, such as economical competitiveness and safety. In the study of a small lead-bismuth cooled reactor, a concept whose features are long life core, inherent safety, natural convection of cooling system and steam generators in the reactor vessel has been designed since 2000. The investigations which have been done in 2002 are shown as follows; Safety analysis of UTOP considering uncertainty of reactivity. Possibility of reduction of number of control rods. Estimation of construction cost. Transient analyses of UTOP have been done in considering uncertainty of reactivity in order to show the inherent safety in the probabilistic method. And the inherent safety in UTOP is realized under the condition of considering uncertainty. Transient analyses of UTOP with various numbers of control rods have been done and it is suggested that there is possibility of reduction of the number of control rods considering accident managements. The method of cost estimation is a little modified. The cost of reactor vessel is estimated from that of medium sized lead-bismuth cooled reactor and the estimation of a purity control system is by coolant volume flow rate. The construction cost is estimated 850,000yen/kWe. (author)

  17. Heat pipe cooling of power processing magnetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, I. G.; Chester, M.

    1979-01-01

    The constant demand for increased power and reduced mass has raised the internal temperature of conventionally cooled power magnetics toward the upper limit of acceptability. The conflicting demands of electrical isolation, mechanical integrity, and thermal conductivity preclude significant further advancements using conventional approaches. However, the size and mass of multikilowatt power processing systems may be further reduced by the incorporation of heat pipe cooling directly into the power magnetics. Additionally, by maintaining lower more constant temperatures, the life and reliability of the magnetic devices will be improved. A heat pipe cooled transformer and input filter have been developed for the 2.4 kW beam supply of a 30-cm ion thruster system. This development yielded a mass reduction of 40% (1.76 kg) and lower mean winding temperature (20 C lower). While these improvements are significant, preliminary designs predict even greater benefits to be realized at higher power. This paper presents the design details along with the results of thermal vacuum operation and the component performance in a 3 kW breadboard power processor.

  18. Decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This status report on Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). The report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems. (authors)

  19. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib; Galassi, R. Malpica; Valorani, M.

    2016-01-01

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  20. Chemical model reduction under uncertainty

    KAUST Repository

    Najm, Habib

    2016-01-05

    We outline a strategy for chemical kinetic model reduction under uncertainty. We present highlights of our existing deterministic model reduction strategy, and describe the extension of the formulation to include parametric uncertainty in the detailed mechanism. We discuss the utility of this construction, as applied to hydrocarbon fuel-air kinetics, and the associated use of uncertainty-aware measures of error between predictions from detailed and simplified models.

  1. The Uncertainty of Measurement Results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ambrus, A. [Hungarian Food Safety Office, Budapest (Hungary)

    2009-07-15

    Factors affecting the uncertainty of measurement are explained, basic statistical formulae given, and the theoretical concept explained in the context of pesticide formulation analysis. Practical guidance is provided on how to determine individual uncertainty components within an analytical procedure. An extended and comprehensive table containing the relevant mathematical/statistical expressions elucidates the relevant underlying principles. Appendix I provides a practical elaborated example on measurement uncertainty estimation, above all utilizing experimental repeatability and reproducibility laboratory data. (author)

  2. Uncertainty analysis of environmental models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monte, L.

    1990-01-01

    In the present paper an evaluation of the output uncertainty of an environmental model for assessing the transfer of 137 Cs and 131 I in the human food chain are carried out on the basis of a statistical analysis of data reported by the literature. The uncertainty analysis offers the oppotunity of obtaining some remarkable information about the uncertainty of models predicting the migration of non radioactive substances in the environment mainly in relation to the dry and wet deposition

  3. Superconducting magnet cooling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vander Arend, Peter C.; Fowler, William B.

    1977-01-01

    A device is provided for cooling a conductor to the superconducting state. The conductor is positioned within an inner conduit through which is flowing a supercooled liquid coolant in physical contact with the conductor. The inner conduit is positioned within an outer conduit so that an annular open space is formed therebetween. Through the annular space is flowing coolant in the boiling liquid state. Heat generated by the conductor is transferred by convection within the supercooled liquid coolant to the inner wall of the inner conduit and then is removed by the boiling liquid coolant, making the heat removal from the conductor relatively independent of conductor length.

  4. Illumination and radiative cooling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fan, Shanhui; Raman, Aaswath Pattabhi; Zhu, Linxiao; Rephaeli, Eden

    2018-03-20

    Aspects of the present disclosure are directed to providing and/or controlling electromagnetic radiation. As may be implemented in accordance with one or more embodiments, an apparatus includes a first structure that contains an object, and a second structure that is transparent at solar wavelengths and emissive in the atmospheric electromagnetic radiation transparency window. The second structure operates with the first structure to pass light into the first structure for illuminating the object, and to radiatively cool the object while preserving the object's color.

  5. Rotary engine cooling system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Charles (Inventor); Gigon, Richard M. (Inventor); Blum, Edward J. (Inventor)

    1985-01-01

    A rotary engine has a substantially trochoidal-shaped housing cavity in which a rotor planetates. A cooling system for the engine directs coolant along a single series path consisting of series connected groups of passages. Coolant enters near the intake port, passes downwardly and axially through the cooler regions of the engine, then passes upwardly and axially through the hotter regions. By first flowing through the coolest regions, coolant pressure is reduced, thus reducing the saturation temperature of the coolant and thereby enhancing the nucleate boiling heat transfer mechanism which predominates in the high heat flux region of the engine during high power level operation.

  6. Gas cooled HTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schweiger, F.

    1985-01-01

    In the He-cooled, graphite-moderated HTR with spherical fuel elements, the steam generator is fixed outside the pressure vessel. The heat exchangers are above the reactor level. The hot gases stream from the reactor bottom over the heat exchanger, through an annular space around the heat exchanger and through feed lines in the side reflector of the reactor back to its top part. This way, in case of shutdown there is a supplementary natural draught that helps the inner natural circulation (chimney draught effect). (orig./PW)

  7. Uncertainty assessment for accelerator-driven systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finck, P. J.; Gomes, I.; Micklich, B.; Palmiotti, G.

    1999-01-01

    The concept of a subcritical system driven by an external source of neutrons provided by an accelerator ADS (Accelerator Driver System) has been recently revived and is becoming more popular in the world technical community with active programs in Europe, Russia, Japan, and the U.S. A general consensus has been reached in adopting for the subcritical component a fast spectrum liquid metal cooled configuration. Both a lead-bismuth eutectic, sodium and gas are being considered as a coolant; each has advantages and disadvantages. The major expected advantage is that subcriticality avoids reactivity induced transients. The potentially large subcriticality margin also should allow for the introduction of very significant quantities of waste products (minor Actinides and Fission Products) which negatively impact the safety characteristics of standard cores. In the U.S. these arguments are the basis for the development of the Accelerator Transmutation of Waste (ATW), which has significant potential in reducing nuclear waste levels. Up to now, neutronic calculations have not attached uncertainties on the values of the main nuclear integral parameters that characterize the system. Many of these parameters (e.g., degree of subcriticality) are crucial to demonstrate the validity and feasibility of this concept. In this paper we will consider uncertainties related to nuclear data only. The present knowledge of the cross sections of many isotopes that are not usually utilized in existing reactors (like Bi, Pb-207, Pb-208, and also Minor Actinides and Fission Products) suggests that uncertainties in the integral parameters will be significantly larger than for conventional reactor systems, and this raises concerns on the neutronic performance of those systems

  8. Uncertainty quantification in resonance absorption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, M.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    We assess the uncertainty in the resonance escape probability due to uncertainty in the neutron and radiation line widths for the first 21 resonances in 232 Th as given by . Simulation, quadrature and polynomial chaos methods are used and the resonance data are assumed to obey a beta distribution. We find the uncertainty in the total resonance escape probability to be the equivalent, in reactivity, of 75–130 pcm. Also shown are pdfs of the resonance escape probability for each resonance and the variation of the uncertainty with temperature. The viability of the polynomial chaos expansion method is clearly demonstrated.

  9. Reliability analysis under epistemic uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nannapaneni, Saideep; Mahadevan, Sankaran

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to include both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty within model-based reliability estimation of engineering systems for individual limit states. Epistemic uncertainty is considered due to both data and model sources. Sparse point and/or interval data regarding the input random variables leads to uncertainty regarding their distribution types, distribution parameters, and correlations; this statistical uncertainty is included in the reliability analysis through a combination of likelihood-based representation, Bayesian hypothesis testing, and Bayesian model averaging techniques. Model errors, which include numerical solution errors and model form errors, are quantified through Gaussian process models and included in the reliability analysis. The probability integral transform is used to develop an auxiliary variable approach that facilitates a single-level representation of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. This strategy results in an efficient single-loop implementation of Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and FORM/SORM techniques for reliability estimation under both aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Two engineering examples are used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. - Highlights: • Epistemic uncertainty due to data and model included in reliability analysis. • A novel FORM-based approach proposed to include aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. • A single-loop Monte Carlo approach proposed to include both types of uncertainties. • Two engineering examples used for illustration.

  10. Erha Uncertainty Analysis: Planning for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brami, T.R.; Hopkins, D.F.; Loguer, W.L.; Cornagia, D.M.; Braisted, A.W.C.

    2002-01-01

    The Erha field (OPL 209) was discovered in 1999 approximately 100 km off the coast of Nigeria in 1,100 m of water. The discovery well (Erha-1) encountered oil and gas in deep-water clastic reservoirs. The first appraisal well (Erha-2) drilled 1.6 km downdip to the northwest penetrated an oil-water contact and confirmed a potentially commercial discovery. However, the Erha-3 and Erha-3 ST-1 boreholes, drilled on the faulted east-side of the field in 2001, encountered shallower fluid contacts. As a result of these findings, a comprehensive field-wide uncertainty analysis was performed to better understand what we know versus what we think regarding resource size and economic viability The uncertainty analysis process applied at Erha is an integrated scenario-based probabilistic approach to model resource and reserves. Its goal is to provide quantitative results for a variety of scenarios, thus allowing identification of and focus on critical controls (the variables that are likely to impose the greatest influence).The initial focus at Erha was to incorporate the observed fluid contacts and to develop potential scenarios that included the range of possibilities in unpenetrated portions of the field. Four potential compartmentalization scenarios were hypothesized. The uncertainty model combines these scenarios with reservoir parameters and their plausible ranges. Input data comes from multiple sources including: wells, 3D seismic, reservoir flow simulation, geochemistry, fault-seal analysis, sequence stratigraphic analysis, and analogs. Once created, the model is sampled using Monte-Carlo techniques to create probability density functions for a variety of variables including oil in-place and recoverable reserves.Results of the uncertainty analysis support that despite a thinner oil column on the faulted east-side of the field, Erha is an economically attractive opportunity. Further, the results have been to develop data acquisition plans and mitigation strategies that

  11. Onderzoeksrapportage duurzaam koelen : EOS Renewable Cooling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broeze, J.; Sluis, van der S.; Wissink, E.

    2010-01-01

    For reducing energy use for cooling, alternative methods (that do not rely on electricity) are needed. Renewable cooling is based on naturally available resources such as evaporative cooling, free cooling, phase change materials, ground subcooling, solar cooling, wind cooling, night radiation &

  12. Cooling power technology at a turning point

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hese, L.H.

    1978-01-01

    From freshwater cooling and efflux condenser cooling to wet recirculation cooling, hybrid and dry cooling towers, cooling tower technology has seen a development characterized by higher cooling tower costs and reduced power plant efficiency. Therefore, all research work done at the moment concentrates on making up for the economic losses connected with improved environmental protection. (orig.) [de

  13. Climate Certainties and Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morel, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    In issue 380 of Futuribles in December 2011, Antonin Pottier analysed in detail the workings of what is today termed 'climate scepticism' - namely the propensity of certain individuals to contest the reality of climate change on the basis of pseudo-scientific arguments. He emphasized particularly that what fuels the debate on climate change is, largely, the degree of uncertainty inherent in the consequences to be anticipated from observation of the facts, not the description of the facts itself. In his view, the main aim of climate sceptics is to block the political measures for combating climate change. However, since they do not admit to this political posture, they choose instead to deny the scientific reality. This month, Futuribles complements this socio-psychological analysis of climate-sceptical discourse with an - in this case, wholly scientific - analysis of what we know (or do not know) about climate change on our planet. Pierre Morel gives a detailed account of the state of our knowledge in the climate field and what we are able to predict in the medium/long-term. After reminding us of the influence of atmospheric meteorological processes on the climate, he specifies the extent of global warming observed since 1850 and the main origin of that warming, as revealed by the current state of knowledge: the increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases. He then describes the changes in meteorological regimes (showing also the limits of climate simulation models), the modifications of hydrological regimes, and also the prospects for rises in sea levels. He also specifies the mechanisms that may potentially amplify all these phenomena and the climate disasters that might ensue. Lastly, he shows what are the scientific data that cannot be disregarded, the consequences of which are now inescapable (melting of the ice-caps, rises in sea level etc.), the only remaining uncertainty in this connection being the date at which these things will happen. 'In this

  14. Antarctica: Cooling or Warming?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunde, Armin; Ludescher, Josef; Franzke, Christian

    2013-04-01

    We consider the 14 longest instrumental monthly mean temperature records from the Antarctica and analyse their correlation properties by wavelet and detrended fluctuation analysis. We show that the stations in the western and the eastern part of the Antarctica show significant long-term memory governed by Hurst exponents close to 0.8 and 0.65, respectively. In contrast, the temperature records at the inner part of the continent (South Pole and Vostok), resemble white noise. We use linear regression to estimate the respective temperature differences in the records per decade (i) for the annual data, (ii) for the summer and (iii) for the winter season. Using a recent approach by Lennartz and Bunde [1] we estimate the respective probabilities that these temperature differences can be exceeded naturally without inferring an external (anthropogenic) trend. We find that the warming in the western part of the continent and the cooling at the South Pole is due to a gradually changes in the cold extremes. For the winter months, both cooling and warming are well outside the 95 percent confidence interval, pointing to an anthropogenic origin. In the eastern Antarctica, the temperature increases and decreases are modest and well within the 95 percent confidence interval. [1] S. Lennartz and A. Bunde, Phys. Rev. E 84, 021129 (2011)

  15. Cooled spool piston compressor

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Brian G. (Inventor)

    1993-01-01

    A hydraulically powered gas compressor receives low pressure gas and outputs a high pressure gas. The housing of the compressor defines a cylinder with a center chamber having a cross-sectional area less than the cross-sectional area of a left end chamber and a right end chamber, and a spool-type piston assembly is movable within the cylinder and includes a left end closure, a right end closure, and a center body that are in sealing engagement with the respective cylinder walls as the piston reciprocates. First and second annual compression chambers are provided between the piston enclosures and center housing portion of the compressor, thereby minimizing the spacing between the core gas and a cooled surface of the compressor. Restricted flow passageways are provided in the piston closure members and a path is provided in the central body of the piston assembly, such that hydraulic fluid flows through the piston assembly to cool the piston assembly during its operation. The compressor of the present invention may be easily adapted for a particular application, and is capable of generating high gas pressures while maintaining both the compressed gas and the compressor components within acceptable temperature limits.

  16. Sketching Uncertainty into Simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribicic, H; Waser, J; Gurbat, R; Sadransky, B; Groller, M E

    2012-12-01

    In a variety of application areas, the use of simulation steering in decision making is limited at best. Research focusing on this problem suggests that most user interfaces are too complex for the end user. Our goal is to let users create and investigate multiple, alternative scenarios without the need for special simulation expertise. To simplify the specification of parameters, we move from a traditional manipulation of numbers to a sketch-based input approach. Users steer both numeric parameters and parameters with a spatial correspondence by sketching a change onto the rendering. Special visualizations provide immediate visual feedback on how the sketches are transformed into boundary conditions of the simulation models. Since uncertainty with respect to many intertwined parameters plays an important role in planning, we also allow the user to intuitively setup complete value ranges, which are then automatically transformed into ensemble simulations. The interface and the underlying system were developed in collaboration with experts in the field of flood management. The real-world data they have provided has allowed us to construct scenarios used to evaluate the system. These were presented to a variety of flood response personnel, and their feedback is discussed in detail in the paper. The interface was found to be intuitive and relevant, although a certain amount of training might be necessary.

  17. Uncertainty vs. Information (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nearing, Grey

    2017-04-01

    Information theory is the branch of logic that describes how rational epistemic states evolve in the presence of empirical data (Knuth, 2005), and any logic of science is incomplete without such a theory. Developing a formal philosophy of science that recognizes this fact results in essentially trivial solutions to several longstanding problems are generally considered intractable, including: • Alleviating the need for any likelihood function or error model. • Derivation of purely logical falsification criteria for hypothesis testing. • Specification of a general quantitative method for process-level model diagnostics. More generally, I make the following arguments: 1. Model evaluation should not proceed by quantifying and/or reducing error or uncertainty, and instead should be approached as a problem of ensuring that our models contain as much information as our experimental data. I propose that the latter is the only question a scientist actually has the ability to ask. 2. Instead of building geophysical models as solutions to differential equations that represent conservation laws, we should build models as maximum entropy distributions constrained by conservation symmetries. This will allow us to derive predictive probabilities directly from first principles. Knuth, K. H. (2005) 'Lattice duality: The origin of probability and entropy', Neurocomputing, 67, pp. 245-274.

  18. Pandemic influenza: certain uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morens, David M.; Taubenberger, Jeffery K.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY For at least five centuries, major epidemics and pandemics of influenza have occurred unexpectedly and at irregular intervals. Despite the modern notion that pandemic influenza is a distinct phenomenon obeying such constant (if incompletely understood) rules such as dramatic genetic change, cyclicity, “wave” patterning, virus replacement, and predictable epidemic behavior, much evidence suggests the opposite. Although there is much that we know about pandemic influenza, there appears to be much more that we do not know. Pandemics arise as a result of various genetic mechanisms, have no predictable patterns of mortality among different age groups, and vary greatly in how and when they arise and recur. Some are followed by new pandemics, whereas others fade gradually or abruptly into long-term endemicity. Human influenza pandemics have been caused by viruses that evolved singly or in co-circulation with other pandemic virus descendants and often have involved significant transmission between, or establishment of, viral reservoirs within other animal hosts. In recent decades, pandemic influenza has continued to produce numerous unanticipated events that expose fundamental gaps in scientific knowledge. Influenza pandemics appear to be not a single phenomenon but a heterogeneous collection of viral evolutionary events whose similarities are overshadowed by important differences, the determinants of which remain poorly understood. These uncertainties make it difficult to predict influenza pandemics and, therefore, to adequately plan to prevent them. PMID:21706672

  19. Big data uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maugis, Pierre-André G

    2018-07-01

    Big data-the idea that an always-larger volume of information is being constantly recorded-suggests that new problems can now be subjected to scientific scrutiny. However, can classical statistical methods be used directly on big data? We analyze the problem by looking at two known pitfalls of big datasets. First, that they are biased, in the sense that they do not offer a complete view of the populations under consideration. Second, that they present a weak but pervasive level of dependence between all their components. In both cases we observe that the uncertainty of the conclusion obtained by statistical methods is increased when used on big data, either because of a systematic error (bias), or because of a larger degree of randomness (increased variance). We argue that the key challenge raised by big data is not only how to use big data to tackle new problems, but to develop tools and methods able to rigorously articulate the new risks therein. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  20. Uncertainty enabled Sensor Observation Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornford, Dan; Williams, Matthew; Bastin, Lucy

    2010-05-01

    Almost all observations of reality are contaminated with errors, which introduce uncertainties into the actual observation result. Such uncertainty is often held to be a data quality issue, and quantification of this uncertainty is essential for the principled exploitation of the observations. Many existing systems treat data quality in a relatively ad-hoc manner, however if the observation uncertainty is a reliable estimate of the error on the observation with respect to reality then knowledge of this uncertainty enables optimal exploitation of the observations in further processes, or decision making. We would argue that the most natural formalism for expressing uncertainty is Bayesian probability theory. In this work we show how the Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Observation Service can be implemented to enable the support of explicit uncertainty about observations. We show how the UncertML candidate standard is used to provide a rich and flexible representation of uncertainty in this context. We illustrate this on a data set of user contributed weather data where the INTAMAP interpolation Web Processing Service is used to help estimate the uncertainty on the observations of unknown quality, using observations with known uncertainty properties. We then go on to discuss the implications of uncertainty for a range of existing Open Geospatial Consortium standards including SWE common and Observations and Measurements. We discuss the difficult decisions in the design of the UncertML schema and its relation and usage within existing standards and show various options. We conclude with some indications of the likely future directions for UncertML in the context of Open Geospatial Consortium services.

  1. Modelization of cooling system components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Copete, Monica; Ortega, Silvia; Vaquero, Jose Carlos; Cervantes, Eva [Westinghouse Electric (Spain)

    2010-07-01

    In the site evaluation study for licensing a new nuclear power facility, the criteria involved could be grouped in health and safety, environment, socio-economics, engineering and cost-related. These encompass different aspects such as geology, seismology, cooling system requirements, weather conditions, flooding, population, and so on. The selection of the cooling system is function of different parameters as the gross electrical output, energy consumption, available area for cooling system components, environmental conditions, water consumption, and others. Moreover, in recent years, extreme environmental conditions have been experienced and stringent water availability limits have affected water use permits. Therefore, modifications or alternatives of current cooling system designs and operation are required as well as analyses of the different possibilities of cooling systems to optimize energy production taking into account water consumption among other important variables. There are two basic cooling system configurations: - Once-through or Open-cycle; - Recirculating or Closed-cycle. In a once-through cooling system (or open-cycle), water from an external water sources passes through the steam cycle condenser and is then returned to the source at a higher temperature with some level of contaminants. To minimize the thermal impact to the water source, a cooling tower may be added in a once-through system to allow air cooling of the water (with associated losses on site due to evaporation) prior to returning the water to its source. This system has a high thermal efficiency, and its operating and capital costs are very low. So, from an economical point of view, the open-cycle is preferred to closed-cycle system, especially if there are no water limitations or environmental restrictions. In a recirculating system (or closed-cycle), cooling water exits the condenser, goes through a fixed heat sink, and is then returned to the condenser. This configuration

  2. Review of cavity optomechanical cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Yong-Chun; Hu Yu-Wen; Xiao Yun-Feng; Wong Chee Wei

    2013-01-01

    Quantum manipulation of macroscopic mechanical systems is of great interest in both fundamental physics and applications ranging from high-precision metrology to quantum information processing. For these purposes, a crucial step is to cool the mechanical system to its quantum ground state. In this review, we focus on the cavity optomechanical cooling, which exploits the cavity enhanced interaction between optical field and mechanical motion to reduce the thermal noise. Recent remarkable theoretical and experimental efforts in this field have taken a major step forward in preparing the motional quantum ground state of mesoscopic mechanical systems. This review first describes the quantum theory of cavity optomechanical cooling, including quantum noise approach and covariance approach; then, the up-to-date experimental progresses are introduced. Finally, new cooling approaches are discussed along the directions of cooling in the strong coupling regime and cooling beyond the resolved sideband limit. (topical review - quantum information)

  3. Electronic cooling using thermoelectric devices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zebarjadi, M., E-mail: m.zebarjadi@rutgers.edu [Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey 08854 (United States); Institute of Advanced Materials, Devices, and Nanotechnology, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey 08854 (United States)

    2015-05-18

    Thermoelectric coolers or Peltier coolers are used to pump heat in the opposite direction of the natural heat flux. These coolers have also been proposed for electronic cooling, wherein the aim is to pump heat in the natural heat flux direction and from hot spots to the colder ambient temperature. In this manuscript, we show that for such applications, one needs to use thermoelectric materials with large thermal conductivity and large power factor, instead of the traditionally used high ZT thermoelectric materials. We further show that with the known thermoelectric materials, the active cooling cannot compete with passive cooling, and one needs to explore a new set of materials to provide a cooling solution better than a regular copper heat sink. We propose a set of materials and directions for exploring possible materials candidates suitable for electronic cooling. Finally, to achieve maximum cooling, we propose to use thermoelectric elements as fins attached to copper blocks.

  4. Uncertainty and inference in the world of paleoecological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLachlan, J. S.; Dawson, A.; Dietze, M.; Finley, M.; Hooten, M.; Itter, M.; Jackson, S. T.; Marlon, J. R.; Raiho, A.; Tipton, J.; Williams, J.

    2017-12-01

    Proxy data in paleoecology and paleoclimatology share a common set of biases and uncertainties: spatiotemporal error associated with the taphonomic processes of deposition, preservation, and dating; calibration error between proxy data and the ecosystem states of interest; and error in the interpolation of calibrated estimates across space and time. Researchers often account for this daunting suite of challenges by applying qualitave expert judgment: inferring the past states of ecosystems and assessing the level of uncertainty in those states subjectively. The effectiveness of this approach can be seen by the extent to which future observations confirm previous assertions. Hierarchical Bayesian (HB) statistical approaches allow an alternative approach to accounting for multiple uncertainties in paleo data. HB estimates of ecosystem state formally account for each of the common uncertainties listed above. HB approaches can readily incorporate additional data, and data of different types into estimates of ecosystem state. And HB estimates of ecosystem state, with associated uncertainty, can be used to constrain forecasts of ecosystem dynamics based on mechanistic ecosystem models using data assimilation. Decisions about how to structure an HB model are also subjective, which creates a parallel framework for deciding how to interpret data from the deep past.Our group, the Paleoecological Observatory Network (PalEON), has applied hierarchical Bayesian statistics to formally account for uncertainties in proxy based estimates of past climate, fire, primary productivity, biomass, and vegetation composition. Our estimates often reveal new patterns of past ecosystem change, which is an unambiguously good thing, but we also often estimate a level of uncertainty that is uncomfortably high for many researchers. High levels of uncertainty are due to several features of the HB approach: spatiotemporal smoothing, the formal aggregation of multiple types of uncertainty, and a

  5. Multi data reservior history matching and uncertainty quantification framework

    KAUST Repository

    Katterbauer, Klemens

    2015-11-26

    A multi-data reservoir history matching and uncertainty quantification framework is provided. The framework can utilize multiple data sets such as production, seismic, electromagnetic, gravimetric and surface deformation data for improving the history matching process. The framework can consist of a geological model that is interfaced with a reservoir simulator. The reservoir simulator can interface with seismic, electromagnetic, gravimetric and surface deformation modules to predict the corresponding observations. The observations can then be incorporated into a recursive filter that subsequently updates the model state and parameters distributions, providing a general framework to quantify and eventually reduce with the data, uncertainty in the estimated reservoir state and parameters.

  6. Material Issues of Blanket Systems for Fusion Reactors - Compatibility with Cooling Water -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miwa, Yukio; Tsukada, Takashi; Jitsukawa, Shiro

    Environmental assisted cracking (EAC) is one of the material issues for the reactor core components of light water power reactors(LWRs). Much experience and knowledge have been obtained about the EAC in the LWR field. They will be useful to prevent the EAC of water-cooled blanket systems of fusion reactors. For the austenitic stainless steels and the reduced-activation ferritic/martensitic steels, they clarifies that the EAC in a water-cooled blanket does not seem to be acritical issue. However, some uncertainties about influences on water temperatures, water chemistries and stress conditions may affect on the EAC. Considerations and further investigations elucidating the uncertainties are discussed.

  7. A commentary on model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Apostolakis, G.

    1994-01-01

    A framework is proposed for the identification of model and parameter uncertainties in risk assessment models. Two cases are distinguished; in the first case, a set of mutually exclusive and exhaustive hypotheses (models) can be formulated, while, in the second, only one reference model is available. The relevance of this formulation to decision making and the communication of uncertainties is discussed

  8. Mama Software Features: Uncertainty Testing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruggiero, Christy E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Porter, Reid B. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2014-05-30

    This document reviews how the uncertainty in the calculations is being determined with test image data. The results of this testing give an ‘initial uncertainty’ number than can be used to estimate the ‘back end’ uncertainty in digital image quantification in images. Statisticians are refining these numbers as part of a UQ effort.

  9. Designing for Uncertainty: Three Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Scott

    2007-01-01

    Higher education wishes to get long life and good returns on its investment in learning spaces. Doing this has become difficult because rapid changes in information technology have created fundamental uncertainties about the future in which capital investments must deliver value. Three approaches to designing for this uncertainty are described…

  10. COOLING STAGES OF CRYOGENIC SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Троценко, А. В.

    2011-01-01

    The formalized definition for cooling stage of low temperature system is done. Based on existing information about the known cryogenic unit cycles the possible types of cooling stages are single out. From analyses of these stages their classification by various characteristics is suggested. The results of thermodynamic optimization of final throttle stage of cooling, which are used as working fluids helium, hydrogen and nitrogen, are shown.

  11. Stochastic cooling technology at Fermilab

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pasquinelli, R.J. E-mail: pasquin@fnal.gov

    2004-10-11

    The first antiproton cooling systems were installed and commissioned at Fermilab in 1984-1985. In the interim period, there have been several major upgrades, system improvements, and complete reincarnation of cooling systems. This paper will present some of the technology that was pioneered at Fermilab to implement stochastic cooling systems in both the Antiproton Source and Recycler accelerators. Current performance data will also be presented.

  12. Stochastic cooling technology at Fermilab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquinelli, Ralph J.

    2004-10-01

    The first antiproton cooling systems were installed and commissioned at Fermilab in 1984-1985. In the interim period, there have been several major upgrades, system improvements, and complete reincarnation of cooling systems. This paper will present some of the technology that was pioneered at Fermilab to implement stochastic cooling systems in both the Antiproton Source and Recycler accelerators. Current performance data will also be presented.

  13. Stochastic cooling technology at Fermilab

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasquinelli, R.J.

    2004-01-01

    The first antiproton cooling systems were installed and commissioned at Fermilab in 1984-1985. In the interim period, there have been several major upgrades, system improvements, and complete reincarnation of cooling systems. This paper will present some of the technology that was pioneered at Fermilab to implement stochastic cooling systems in both the Antiproton Source and Recycler accelerators. Current performance data will also be presented

  14. Direct cooled power electronics substrate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiles, Randy H [Powell, TN; Wereszczak, Andrew A [Oak Ridge, TN; Ayers, Curtis W [Kingston, TN; Lowe, Kirk T [Knoxville, TN

    2010-09-14

    The disclosure describes directly cooling a three-dimensional, direct metallization (DM) layer in a power electronics device. To enable sufficient cooling, coolant flow channels are formed within the ceramic substrate. The direct metallization layer (typically copper) may be bonded to the ceramic substrate, and semiconductor chips (such as IGBT and diodes) may be soldered or sintered onto the direct metallization layer to form a power electronics module. Multiple modules may be attached to cooling headers that provide in-flow and out-flow of coolant through the channels in the ceramic substrate. The modules and cooling header assembly are preferably sized to fit inside the core of a toroidal shaped capacitor.

  15. Theory of tapered laser cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okamoto, Hiromi; Wei, J.

    1998-01-01

    A theory of tapered laser cooling for fast circulating ion beams in a storage ring is constructed. The authors describe the fundamentals of this new cooling scheme, emphasizing that it might be the most promising way to beam crystallization. The cooling rates are analytically evaluated to study the ideal operating condition. They discuss the physical implication of the tapering factor of cooling laser, and show how to determine its optimum value. Molecular dynamics method is employed to demonstrate the validity of the present theory

  16. Water cooled nuclear reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    A description is given of a cooling water intake collector for a nuclear reactor. It includes multiple sub-collectors extending out in a generally parallel manner to each other, each one having a first end and a second one separated along their length, and multiple water outlets for connecting each one to a corresponding pressure tube of the reactor. A first end tube and a second one connect the sub-collector tubes together to their first and second ends respectively. It also includes multiple collector tubes extending transversely by crossing over the sub-collector tubes and separated from each other in the direction of these tubes. Each collector tubes has a water intake for connecting to a water pump and multiple connecting tubes separated over its length and connecting each one to the corresponding sub-collector [fr

  17. Emergency core cooling systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kubokoya, Takashi; Okataku, Yasukuni.

    1984-01-01

    Purpose: To maintain the fuel soundness upon loss of primary coolant accidents in a pressure tube type nuclear reactor by injecting cooling heavy water at an early stage, to suppress the temperature of fuel cans at a lower level. Constitution: When a thermometer detects the temperature rise and a pressure gauge detects that the pressure for the primary coolants is reduced slightly from that in the normal operation upon loss of coolant accidents in the vicinity of the primary coolant circuit, heavy water is caused to flow in the heavy water feed pipeway by a controller. This enables to inject the heavy water into the reactor core in a short time upon loss of the primary coolant accidents to suppress the temperature rise in the fuel can thereby maintain the fuel soundness. (Moriyama, K.)

  18. Cooling of rectangular bars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frainer, V.J.

    1979-01-01

    A solution of the time-transient Heat Transfer Differential Equation in rectangular coordinates is presented, leading to a model which describes the temperature drop with time in rectangular bars. It is similar to an other model for cilindrical bars which has been previously developed in the Laboratory of Mechanical Metallurgy of UFRGS. Following these models, a generalization has been made, which permits cooling time evaluation for all profiles. These results are compared with experimental laboratory data in the 1200 to 800 0 C range. Some other existing models were also studied which have the purpose of studing the same phenomenon. Their mathematical forms and their evaluated values are analyzed and compared with experimental ones. (Author) [pt

  19. ATLAS' major cooling project

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    In 2005, a considerable effort has been put into commissioning the various units of ATLAS' complex cryogenic system. This is in preparation for the imminent cooling of some of the largest components of the detector in their final underground configuration. The liquid helium and nitrogen ATLAS refrigerators in USA 15. Cryogenics plays a vital role in operating massive detectors such as ATLAS. In many ways the liquefied argon, nitrogen and helium are the life-blood of the detector. ATLAS could not function without cryogens that will be constantly pumped via proximity systems to the superconducting magnets and subdetectors. In recent weeks compressors at the surface and underground refrigerators, dewars, pumps, linkages and all manner of other components related to the cryogenic system have been tested and commissioned. Fifty metres underground The helium and nitrogen refrigerators, installed inside the service cavern, are an important part of the ATLAS cryogenic system. Two independent helium refrigerators ...

  20. MEASURING THE EVOLUTIONARY RATE OF COOLING OF ZZ Ceti

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mukadam, Anjum S.; Fraser, Oliver; Riecken, T. S.; Kronberg, M. E. [Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Bischoff-Kim, Agnes [Georgia College and State University, Milledgeville, GA 31061 (United States); Corsico, A. H. [Facultad de Ciencias Astronomicas y Geofisicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata (Argentina); Montgomery, M. H.; Winget, D. E.; Hermes, J. J.; Winget, K. I.; Falcon, Ross E.; Reaves, D. [Department of Astronomy, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX 78759 (United States); Kepler, S. O.; Romero, A. D. [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre 91501-970, RS (Brazil); Chandler, D. W. [Meyer Observatory, Central Texas Astronomical Society, 3409 Whispering Oaks, Temple, TX 76504 (United States); Kuehne, J. W. [McDonald Observatory, Fort Davis, TX 79734 (United States); Sullivan, D. J. [Victoria University of Wellington, P.O. Box 600, Wellington (New Zealand); Von Hippel, T. [Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, 600 South Clyde Morris Boulevard, Daytona Beach, FL 32114 (United States); Mullally, F. [SETI Institute, NASA Ames Research Center, MS 244-30, Moffet Field, CA 94035 (United States); Shipman, H. [Delaware Asteroseismic Research Center, Mt. Cuba Observatory, Greenville, DE 19807 (United States); and others

    2013-07-01

    We have finally measured the evolutionary rate of cooling of the pulsating hydrogen atmosphere (DA) white dwarf ZZ Ceti (Ross 548), as reflected by the drift rate of the 213.13260694 s period. Using 41 yr of time-series photometry from 1970 November to 2012 January, we determine the rate of change of this period with time to be dP/dt = (5.2 {+-} 1.4) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1} employing the O - C method and (5.45 {+-} 0.79) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1} using a direct nonlinear least squares fit to the entire lightcurve. We adopt the dP/dt obtained from the nonlinear least squares program as our final determination, but augment the corresponding uncertainty to a more realistic value, ultimately arriving at the measurement of dP/dt = (5.5 {+-} 1.0) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1}. After correcting for proper motion, the evolutionary rate of cooling of ZZ Ceti is computed to be (3.3 {+-} 1.1) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1}. This value is consistent within uncertainties with the measurement of (4.19 {+-} 0.73) Multiplication-Sign 10{sup -15} s s{sup -1} for another similar pulsating DA white dwarf, G 117-B15A. Measuring the cooling rate of ZZ Ceti helps us refine our stellar structure and evolutionary models, as cooling depends mainly on the core composition and stellar mass. Calibrating white dwarf cooling curves with this measurement will reduce the theoretical uncertainties involved in white dwarf cosmochronometry. Should the 213.13 s period be trapped in the hydrogen envelope, then our determination of its drift rate compared to the expected evolutionary rate suggests an additional source of stellar cooling. Attributing the excess cooling to the emission of axions imposes a constraint on the mass of the hypothetical axion particle.

  1. Core catcher cooling for a gas-cooled fast breeder

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalle Donne, M.; Dorner, S.; Schretzmann, K.

    1976-01-01

    Water, molten salts, and liquid metals are under discussion as coolants for the core catcher of a gas-cooled fast breeder. The authors state that there is still no technically mature method of cooling a core melt. However, the investigations carried out so far suggest that there is a solution to this problem. (RW/AK) [de

  2. Film cooling for a closed loop cooled airfoil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdgick, Steven Sebastian; Yu, Yufeng Phillip; Itzel, Gary Michael

    2003-01-01

    Turbine stator vane segments have radially inner and outer walls with vanes extending therebetween. The inner and outer walls are compartmentalized and have impingement plates. Steam flowing into the outer wall plenum passes through the impingement plate for impingement cooling of the outer wall upper surface. The spent impingement steam flows into cavities of the vane having inserts for impingement cooling the walls of the vane. The steam passes into the inner wall and through the impingement plate for impingement cooling of the inner wall surface and for return through return cavities having inserts for impingement cooling of the vane surfaces. At least one film cooling hole is defined through a wall of at least one of the cavities for flow communication between an interior of the cavity and an exterior of the vane. The film cooling hole(s) are defined adjacent a potential low LCF life region, so that cooling medium that bleeds out through the film cooling hole(s) reduces a thermal gradient in a vicinity thereof, thereby the increase the LCF life of that region.

  3. Cooling Tower Overhaul of Secondary Cooling System in HANARO

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Young Chul; Lee, Young Sub; Jung, Hoan Sung; Lim, In Chul [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2007-07-01

    HANARO, an open-tank-in-pool type research reactor of 30 MWth power in Korea, has been operating normally since its initial criticality in February, 1995. For the last about ten years, A cooling tower of a secondary cooling system has been operated normally in HANARO. Last year, the cooling tower has been overhauled for preservative maintenance including fills, eliminators, wood support, water distribution system, motors, driving shafts, gear reducers, basements, blades and etc. This paper describes the results of the overhaul. As results, it is confirmed that the cooling tower maintains a good operability through a filed test. And a cooling capability will be tested when a wet bulb temperature is maintained about 28 .deg. C in summer and the reactor is operated with the full power.

  4. Onderzoeksrapportage duurzaam koelen : EOS Renewable Cooling

    OpenAIRE

    Broeze, J.; Sluis, van der, S.; Wissink, E.

    2010-01-01

    For reducing energy use for cooling, alternative methods (that do not rely on electricity) are needed. Renewable cooling is based on naturally available resources such as evaporative cooling, free cooling, phase change materials, ground subcooling, solar cooling, wind cooling, night radiation & storage. The project was aimed to create innovative combinations of these renewable cooling technologies and sophisticated control systems, to design renewable climate systems for various applicati...

  5. Uncertainty Analysis and Expert Judgment in Seismic Hazard Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klügel, Jens-Uwe

    2011-01-01

    The large uncertainty associated with the prediction of future earthquakes is usually regarded as the main reason for increased hazard estimates which have resulted from some recent large scale probabilistic seismic hazard analysis studies (e.g. the PEGASOS study in Switzerland and the Yucca Mountain study in the USA). It is frequently overlooked that such increased hazard estimates are characteristic for a single specific method of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA): the traditional (Cornell-McGuire) PSHA method which has found its highest level of sophistication in the SSHAC probability method. Based on a review of the SSHAC probability model and its application in the PEGASOS project, it is shown that the surprising results of recent PSHA studies can be explained to a large extent by the uncertainty model used in traditional PSHA, which deviates from the state of the art in mathematics and risk analysis. This uncertainty model, the Ang-Tang uncertainty model, mixes concepts of decision theory with probabilistic hazard assessment methods leading to an overestimation of uncertainty in comparison to empirical evidence. Although expert knowledge can be a valuable source of scientific information, its incorporation into the SSHAC probability method does not resolve the issue of inflating uncertainties in PSHA results. Other, more data driven, PSHA approaches in use in some European countries are less vulnerable to this effect. The most valuable alternative to traditional PSHA is the direct probabilistic scenario-based approach, which is closely linked with emerging neo-deterministic methods based on waveform modelling.

  6. Robustness for slope stability modelling under deep uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Susana; Holcombe, Liz; Pianosi, Francesca; Wagener, Thorsten

    2015-04-01

    Landslides can have large negative societal and economic impacts, such as loss of life and damage to infrastructure. However, the ability of slope stability assessment to guide management is limited by high levels of uncertainty in model predictions. Many of these uncertainties cannot be easily quantified, such as those linked to climate change and other future socio-economic conditions, restricting the usefulness of traditional decision analysis tools. Deep uncertainty can be managed more effectively by developing robust, but not necessarily optimal, policies that are expected to perform adequately under a wide range of future conditions. Robust strategies are particularly valuable when the consequences of taking a wrong decision are high as is often the case of when managing natural hazard risks such as landslides. In our work a physically based numerical model of hydrologically induced slope instability (the Combined Hydrology and Stability Model - CHASM) is applied together with robust decision making to evaluate the most important uncertainties (storm events, groundwater conditions, surface cover, slope geometry, material strata and geotechnical properties) affecting slope stability. Specifically, impacts of climate change on long-term slope stability are incorporated, accounting for the deep uncertainty in future climate projections. Our findings highlight the potential of robust decision making to aid decision support for landslide hazard reduction and risk management under conditions of deep uncertainty.

  7. Uncertainties in Nuclear Proliferation Modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Chul Min; Yim, Man-Sung; Park, Hyeon Seok

    2015-01-01

    There have been various efforts in the research community to understand the determinants of nuclear proliferation and develop quantitative tools to predict nuclear proliferation events. Such systematic approaches have shown the possibility to provide warning for the international community to prevent nuclear proliferation activities. However, there are still large debates for the robustness of the actual effect of determinants and projection results. Some studies have shown that several factors can cause uncertainties in previous quantitative nuclear proliferation modeling works. This paper analyzes the uncertainties in the past approaches and suggests future works in the view of proliferation history, analysis methods, and variable selection. The research community still lacks the knowledge for the source of uncertainty in current models. Fundamental problems in modeling will remain even other advanced modeling method is developed. Before starting to develop fancy model based on the time dependent proliferation determinants' hypothesis, using graph theory, etc., it is important to analyze the uncertainty of current model to solve the fundamental problems of nuclear proliferation modeling. The uncertainty from different proliferation history coding is small. Serious problems are from limited analysis methods and correlation among the variables. Problems in regression analysis and survival analysis cause huge uncertainties when using the same dataset, which decreases the robustness of the result. Inaccurate variables for nuclear proliferation also increase the uncertainty. To overcome these problems, further quantitative research should focus on analyzing the knowledge suggested on the qualitative nuclear proliferation studies

  8. Measurement uncertainty: Friend or foe?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infusino, Ilenia; Panteghini, Mauro

    2018-02-02

    The definition and enforcement of a reference measurement system, based on the implementation of metrological traceability of patients' results to higher order reference methods and materials, together with a clinically acceptable level of measurement uncertainty, are fundamental requirements to produce accurate and equivalent laboratory results. The uncertainty associated with each step of the traceability chain should be governed to obtain a final combined uncertainty on clinical samples fulfilling the requested performance specifications. It is important that end-users (i.e., clinical laboratory) may know and verify how in vitro diagnostics (IVD) manufacturers have implemented the traceability of their calibrators and estimated the corresponding uncertainty. However, full information about traceability and combined uncertainty of calibrators is currently very difficult to obtain. Laboratory professionals should investigate the need to reduce the uncertainty of the higher order metrological references and/or to increase the precision of commercial measuring systems. Accordingly, the measurement uncertainty should not be considered a parameter to be calculated by clinical laboratories just to fulfil the accreditation standards, but it must become a key quality indicator to describe both the performance of an IVD measuring system and the laboratory itself. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pulkkinen, U.; Huovinen, T.

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.)

  10. Model uncertainty in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pulkkinen, U; Huovinen, T [VTT Automation, Espoo (Finland). Industrial Automation

    1996-01-01

    The uncertainty analyses are an essential part of any risk assessment. Usually the uncertainties of reliability model parameter values are described by probability distributions and the uncertainty is propagated through the whole risk model. In addition to the parameter uncertainties, the assumptions behind the risk models may be based on insufficient experimental observations and the models themselves may not be exact descriptions of the phenomena under analysis. The description and quantification of this type of uncertainty, model uncertainty, is the topic of this report. The model uncertainty is characterized and some approaches to model and quantify it are discussed. The emphasis is on so called mixture models, which have been applied in PSAs. Some of the possible disadvantages of the mixture model are addressed. In addition to quantitative analyses, also qualitative analysis is discussed shortly. To illustrate the models, two simple case studies on failure intensity and human error modeling are described. In both examples, the analysis is based on simple mixture models, which are observed to apply in PSA analyses. (orig.) (36 refs., 6 figs., 2 tabs.).

  11. Nepal CRS project incorporates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    The Nepal Contraceptive Retail Sales (CRS) Project, 5 years after lauching product sales in June 1978, incorporated as a private, nonprofit company under Nepalese management. The transition was finalized in August 1983. The Company will work through a cooperative agreement with USAID/Kathmandu to complement the national family planning goals as the program continues to provide comtraceptives through retail channels at subsidized prices. Company objectives include: increase contraceptive sales by at least 15% per year; make CRS cost effective and move towards self sufficiency; and explore the possibility of marketing noncontraceptive health products to improve primary health care. After only5 years the program can point to some impressive successes. The number of retial shops selling family planning products increased from 100 in 1978 to over 8000, extending CRS product availability to 66 of the country's 75 districts. Retail sales have climbed dramatically in the 5-year period, from Rs 46,817 in 1978 to Rs 271,039 in 1982. Sales in terms of couple year protection CYP) have grown to 24,451 CYP(1982), a 36% increase over 1980 CYP. Since the beginning of the CRS marketing program, total distribution of contraceptives--through both CRS and the Family Planning Maternal and Child Haelth (FP/MCH) Project--has been increasing. While the FP/MCH program remains the largest distributor,contribution of CRS Products is increasing, indicating that CRS is creating new product acceptors. CRS market share in 1982 was 43% for condoms and 16% for oral contraceptives (OCs). CRS markets 5 products which are subsidized in order to be affordable to consumers as well as attractive to sellers. The initial products launched in June 1978 were Gulaf standard dose OCs and Dhaal lubricated colored condoms. A less expensive lubricates, plain Suki-Dhaal condom was introduced in June 1980 in an attempt to reach poorer rural populations, but rural distribution costs are excessive and Suki

  12. Testing Numerical Models of Cool Core Galaxy Cluster Formation with X-Ray Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henning, Jason W.; Gantner, Brennan; Burns, Jack O.; Hallman, Eric J.

    2009-12-01

    Using archival Chandra and ROSAT data along with numerical simulations, we compare the properties of cool core and non-cool core galaxy clusters, paying particular attention to the region beyond the cluster cores. With the use of single and double β-models, we demonstrate a statistically significant difference in the slopes of observed cluster surface brightness profiles while the cluster cores remain indistinguishable between the two cluster types. Additionally, through the use of hardness ratio profiles, we find evidence suggesting cool core clusters are cooler beyond their cores than non-cool core clusters of comparable mass and temperature, both in observed and simulated clusters. The similarities between real and simulated clusters supports a model presented in earlier work by the authors describing differing merger histories between cool core and non-cool core clusters. Discrepancies between real and simulated clusters will inform upcoming numerical models and simulations as to new ways to incorporate feedback in these systems.

  13. Newton's Law of Cooling Revisited

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vollmer, M.

    2009-01-01

    The cooling of objects is often described by a law, attributed to Newton, which states that the temperature difference of a cooling body with respect to the surroundings decreases exponentially with time. Such behaviour has been observed for many laboratory experiments, which led to a wide acceptance of this approach. However, the heat transfer…

  14. Be Cool, Man! / Jevgeni Levik

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Levik, Jevgeni

    2005-01-01

    Järg 1995. aasta kriminaalkomöödiale "Tooge jupats" ("Get Shorty") : mängufilm "Be Cool, Chili Palmer on tagasi!" ("Be Cool") : režissöör F. Gary Gray, peaosades J. Travolta ja U. Thurman : USA 2005. Lisatud J. Travolta ja U. Thurmani lühiintervjuud

  15. Core cooling system for reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kondo, Ryoichi; Amada, Tatsuo.

    1976-01-01

    Purpose: To improve the function of residual heat dissipation from the reactor core in case of emergency by providing a secondary cooling system flow channel, through which fluid having been subjected to heat exchange with the fluid flowing in a primary cooling system flow channel flows, with a core residual heat removal system in parallel with a main cooling system provided with a steam generator. Constitution: Heat generated in the core during normal reactor operation is transferred from a primary cooling system flow channel to a secondary cooling system flow channel through a main heat exchanger and then transferred through a steam generator to a water-steam system flow channel. In the event if removal of heat from the core by the main cooling system becomes impossible due to such cause as breakage of the duct line of the primary cooling system flow channel or a trouble in a primary cooling system pump, a flow control valve is opened, and steam generator inlet and outlet valves are closed, thus increasing the flow rate in the core residual heat removal system. Thereafter, a blower is started to cause dissipation of the core residual heat from the flow channel of a system for heat dissipation to atmosphere. (Seki, T.)

  16. Methods to incorporate different data types in the characterization process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez-Hernandez, J.J.; Carrera, J.; Medina, A.

    1998-01-01

    Spatial variability of the hydrodynamic parameters controlling radionuclide transport causes large uncertainties in the predictions. Methods have been devised to analyze spatial variability of these parameters and to model the uncertainty of the predictions. However, the final use given to large portions of the total data collected is minimal. Techniques have been developed and implemented with the aim of incorporating all types of data in the characterization of the spatial variability of conductivity/transmissivity. This serves to reduce the uncertainty in the predictions and to increase the confidence in the model. Types of data used in models include: geometric information, transmissivity data, piezometric data, geological/geophysical information tracer test concentration data, and isotopic data. (R.P.)

  17. Methods improvements incorporated into the SAPHIRE ASP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.; Smith, C.L.; Rasmuson, D.M.

    1994-01-01

    The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methodology, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3) enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements

  18. Methods improvements incorporated into the SAPHIRE ASP models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sattison, M.B.; Blackman, H.S.; Novack, S.D.

    1995-01-01

    The Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) has sought the assistance of the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to make some significant enhancements to the SAPHIRE-based Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models recently developed by the INEL. The challenge of this project is to provide the features of a full-scale PRA within the framework of the simplified ASP models. Some of these features include: (1) uncertainty analysis addressing the standard PRA uncertainties and the uncertainties unique to the ASP models and methods, (2) incorporation and proper quantification of individual human actions and the interaction among human actions, (3) enhanced treatment of common cause failures, and (4) extension of the ASP models to more closely mimic full-scale PRAs (inclusion of more initiators, explicitly modeling support system failures, etc.). This paper provides an overview of the methods being used to make the above improvements

  19. Decision making uncertainty, imperfection, deliberation and scalability

    CERN Document Server

    Kárný, Miroslav; Wolpert, David

    2015-01-01

    This volume focuses on uncovering the fundamental forces underlying dynamic decision making among multiple interacting, imperfect and selfish decision makers. The chapters are written by leading experts from different disciplines, all considering the many sources of imperfection in decision making, and always with an eye to decreasing the myriad discrepancies between theory and real world human decision making. Topics addressed include uncertainty, deliberation cost and the complexity arising from the inherent large computational scale of decision making in these systems. In particular, analyses and experiments are presented which concern: • task allocation to maximize “the wisdom of the crowd”; • design of a society of “edutainment” robots who account for one anothers’ emotional states; • recognizing and counteracting seemingly non-rational human decision making; • coping with extreme scale when learning causality in networks; • efficiently incorporating expert knowledge in personalized...

  20. Model uncertainty: Probabilities for models?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    Like any other type of uncertainty, model uncertainty should be treated in terms of probabilities. The question is how to do this. The most commonly-used approach has a drawback related to the interpretation of the probabilities assigned to the models. If we step back and look at the big picture, asking what the appropriate focus of the model uncertainty question should be in the context of risk and decision analysis, we see that a different probabilistic approach makes more sense, although it raise some implementation questions. Current work that is underway to address these questions looks very promising

  1. Insurance Applications of Active Fault Maps Showing Epistemic Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo, G.

    2005-12-01

    Insurance loss modeling for earthquakes utilizes available maps of active faulting produced by geoscientists. All such maps are subject to uncertainty, arising from lack of knowledge of fault geometry and rupture history. Field work to undertake geological fault investigations drains human and monetary resources, and this inevitably limits the resolution of fault parameters. Some areas are more accessible than others; some may be of greater social or economic importance than others; some areas may be investigated more rapidly or diligently than others; or funding restrictions may have curtailed the extent of the fault mapping program. In contrast with the aleatory uncertainty associated with the inherent variability in the dynamics of earthquake fault rupture, uncertainty associated with lack of knowledge of fault geometry and rupture history is epistemic. The extent of this epistemic uncertainty may vary substantially from one regional or national fault map to another. However aware the local cartographer may be, this uncertainty is generally not conveyed in detail to the international map user. For example, an area may be left blank for a variety of reasons, ranging from lack of sufficient investigation of a fault to lack of convincing evidence of activity. Epistemic uncertainty in fault parameters is of concern in any probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard, not least in insurance earthquake risk applications. A logic-tree framework is appropriate for incorporating epistemic uncertainty. Some insurance contracts cover specific high-value properties or transport infrastructure, and therefore are extremely sensitive to the geometry of active faulting. Alternative Risk Transfer (ART) to the capital markets may also be considered. In order for such insurance or ART contracts to be properly priced, uncertainty should be taken into account. Accordingly, an estimate is needed for the likelihood of surface rupture capable of causing severe damage. Especially where a

  2. Mapping Soil Transmitted Helminths and Schistosomiasis under Uncertainty: A Systematic Review and Critical Appraisal of Evidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea L Araujo Navas

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Spatial modelling of STH and schistosomiasis epidemiology is now commonplace. Spatial epidemiological studies help inform decisions regarding the number of people at risk as well as the geographic areas that need to be targeted with mass drug administration; however, limited attention has been given to propagated uncertainties, their interpretation, and consequences for the mapped values. Using currently published literature on the spatial epidemiology of helminth infections we identified: (1 the main uncertainty sources, their definition and quantification and (2 how uncertainty is informative for STH programme managers and scientists working in this domain.We performed a systematic literature search using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA protocol. We searched Web of Knowledge and PubMed using a combination of uncertainty, geographic and disease terms. A total of 73 papers fulfilled the inclusion criteria for the systematic review. Only 9% of the studies did not address any element of uncertainty, while 91% of studies quantified uncertainty in the predicted morbidity indicators and 23% of studies mapped it. In addition, 57% of the studies quantified uncertainty in the regression coefficients but only 7% incorporated it in the regression response variable (morbidity indicator. Fifty percent of the studies discussed uncertainty in the covariates but did not quantify it. Uncertainty was mostly defined as precision, and quantified using credible intervals by means of Bayesian approaches.None of the studies considered adequately all sources of uncertainties. We highlighted the need for uncertainty in the morbidity indicator and predictor variable to be incorporated into the modelling framework. Study design and spatial support require further attention and uncertainty associated with Earth observation data should be quantified. Finally, more attention should be given to mapping and interpreting

  3. Closed loop steam cooled airfoil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widrig, Scott M.; Rudolph, Ronald J.; Wagner, Gregg P.

    2006-04-18

    An airfoil, a method of manufacturing an airfoil, and a system for cooling an airfoil is provided. The cooling system can be used with an airfoil located in the first stages of a combustion turbine within a combined cycle power generation plant and involves flowing closed loop steam through a pin array set within an airfoil. The airfoil can comprise a cavity having a cooling chamber bounded by an interior wall and an exterior wall so that steam can enter the cavity, pass through the pin array, and then return to the cavity to thereby cool the airfoil. The method of manufacturing an airfoil can include a type of lost wax investment casting process in which a pin array is cast into an airfoil to form a cooling chamber.

  4. Decision-making under great uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansson, S.O.

    1992-01-01

    Five types of decision-uncertainty are distinguished: uncertainty of consequences, of values, of demarcation, of reliance, and of co-ordination. Strategies are proposed for each type of uncertainty. The general conclusion is that it is meaningful for decision theory to treat cases with greater uncertainty than the textbook case of 'decision-making under uncertainty'. (au)

  5. Cooling off with physics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Clarke, Chris [Unilever R and D (United Kingdom)

    2003-08-01

    You might think of ice cream as a delicious treat to be enjoyed on a sunny summer's day. However, to the ice-cream scientists who recently gathered in Thessaloniki in Greece for the 2nd International Ice Cream Symposium, it is a complex composite material. Ice cream consists of three dispersed phases: ice crystals, which have a mean size of 50 microns, air bubbles with a diameter of about 70 microns, and fat droplets with a size of 1 micron. These phases are held together by what is called the matrix - not a sci-fi film, but a viscous solution of sugars, milk proteins and polysaccharides. The microstructure, and hence the texture that you experience when you eat ice cream, is created in a freezing process that has remained fundamentally unchanged since the first ice-cream maker was patented in the 1840s. The ingredients - water, milk protein, fat, sugar, emulsifiers, stabilizers, flavours and a lot of air - are mixed together before being pasteurized and homogenized. They are then pumped into a cylinder that is cooled from the outside with a refrigerant. As the mixture touches the cylinder wall it freezes and forms ice crystals, which are quickly scraped off by a rotating blade. The blade is attached to a beater that disperses the ice crystals into the mixture. At the same time, air is injected and broken down into small bubbles by the shear that the beater generates. As the mixture passes along the cylinder, the number of ice crystals increases and its temperature drops. As a result, the viscosity of the mixture increases, so that more energy input is needed to rotate the beater. This energy is dissipated as heat, and when the ice cream reaches about -6 deg. C the energy input through the beater equals the energy removed as heat by the refrigerant. The process therefore becomes self-limiting and it is not possible to cool the ice cream any further. However, at -6 deg. C the microstructure is unstable. The ice cream therefore has to be removed from the freezer

  6. Film cooling air pocket in a closed loop cooled airfoil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yufeng Phillip; Itzel, Gary Michael; Osgood, Sarah Jane; Bagepalli, Radhakrishna; Webbon, Waylon Willard; Burdgick, Steven Sebastian

    2002-01-01

    Turbine stator vane segments have radially inner and outer walls with vanes extending between them. The inner and outer walls are compartmentalized and have impingement plates. Steam flowing into the outer wall plenum passes through the impingement plate for impingement cooling of the outer wall upper surface. The spent impingement steam flows into cavities of the vane having inserts for impingement cooling the walls of the vane. The steam passes into the inner wall and through the impingement plate for impingement cooling of the inner wall surface and for return through return cavities having inserts for impingement cooling of the vane surfaces. To provide for air film cooing of select portions of the airfoil outer surface, at least one air pocket is defined on a wall of at least one of the cavities. Each air pocket is substantially closed with respect to the cooling medium in the cavity and cooling air pumped to the air pocket flows through outlet apertures in the wall of the airfoil to cool the same.

  7. 46 CFR 153.432 - Cooling systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cooling systems. 153.432 Section 153.432 Shipping COAST... Control Systems § 153.432 Cooling systems. (a) Each cargo cooling system must have an equivalent standby... cooling system. (b) Each tankship that has a cargo tank with a required cooling system must have a manual...

  8. Estimating uncertainty in multivariate responses to selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stinchcombe, John R; Simonsen, Anna K; Blows, Mark W

    2014-04-01

    Predicting the responses to natural selection is one of the key goals of evolutionary biology. Two of the challenges in fulfilling this goal have been the realization that many estimates of natural selection might be highly biased by environmentally induced covariances between traits and fitness, and that many estimated responses to selection do not incorporate or report uncertainty in the estimates. Here we describe the application of a framework that blends the merits of the Robertson-Price Identity approach and the multivariate breeder's equation to address these challenges. The approach allows genetic covariance matrices, selection differentials, selection gradients, and responses to selection to be estimated without environmentally induced bias, direct and indirect selection and responses to selection to be distinguished, and if implemented in a Bayesian-MCMC framework, statistically robust estimates of uncertainty on all of these parameters to be made. We illustrate our approach with a worked example of previously published data. More generally, we suggest that applying both the Robertson-Price Identity and the multivariate breeder's equation will facilitate hypothesis testing about natural selection, genetic constraints, and evolutionary responses. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  9. Uncertainty as Information: Narrowing the Science-policy Gap

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. A. Bradshaw

    2000-07-01

    Full Text Available Conflict and indecision are hallmarks of environmental policy formulation. Some argue that the requisite information and certainty fall short of scientific standards for decision making; others argue that science is not the issue and that indecisiveness reflects a lack of political willpower. One of the most difficult aspects of translating science into policy is scientific uncertainty. Whereas scientists are familiar with uncertainty and complexity, the public and policy makers often seek certainty and deterministic solutions. We assert that environmental policy is most effective if scientific uncertainty is incorporated into a rigorous decision-theoretic framework as knowledge, not ignorance. The policies that best utilize scientific findings are defined here as those that accommodate the full scope of scientifically based predictions.

  10. The Uncertainties of Risk Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinnari, Eija; Skærbæk, Peter

    2014-01-01

    for expanding risk management. More generally, such uncertainties relate to the professional identities and responsibilities of operational managers as defined by the framing devices. Originality/value – The paper offers three contributions to the extant literature: first, it shows how risk management itself......Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the implementation of risk management as a tool for internal audit activities, focusing on unexpected effects or uncertainties generated during its application. Design/methodology/approach – Public and confidential documents as well as semi......-structured interviews are analysed through the lens of actor-network theory to identify the effects of risk management devices in a Finnish municipality. Findings – The authors found that risk management, rather than reducing uncertainty, itself created unexpected uncertainties that would otherwise not have emerged...

  11. Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

    2016-01-01

    Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  12. Relational uncertainty in service dyads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreye, Melanie

    2017-01-01

    in service dyads and how they resolve it through suitable organisational responses to increase the level of service quality. Design/methodology/approach: We apply the overall logic of Organisational Information-Processing Theory (OIPT) and present empirical insights from two industrial case studies collected...... the relational uncertainty increased the functional quality while resolving the partner’s organisational uncertainty increased the technical quality of the delivered service. Originality: We make two contributions. First, we introduce relational uncertainty to the OM literature as the inability to predict...... and explain the actions of a partnering organisation due to a lack of knowledge about their abilities and intentions. Second, we present suitable organisational responses to relational uncertainty and their effect on service quality....

  13. Advanced LOCA code uncertainty assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickett, A.J.; Neill, A.P.

    1990-11-01

    This report describes a pilot study that identified, quantified and combined uncertainties for the LOBI BL-02 3% small break test. A ''dials'' version of TRAC-PF1/MOD1, called TRAC-F, was used. (author)

  14. Huge opportunity for solar cooling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowe, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In Europe more than 400 solar cooling systems have been installed. By contrast, only a small number of solar cooling installations exist in Australia - primarily adsorption and absorption systems for commercial and hospitals - although these systems are growing. As with other renewable energy technologies, cost is a challenge. However solar cooling is currently competitive with other technologies, with some suggesting that system costs have been decreasing by about 20% per annum in recent times. Australia is also leading efforts in the development of residential solar desiccant technology, currently commercialising Australian-developed technology. Commercial and industrial enterprises are increasingly aware of the impact of demand charges, the potential to install technology as a hedge against future energy price rises and opportunities associated with increased on-site generation and reduced reliance on the grid, often necessitating on-site demand reduction and management. They are also driven by environmental and corporate social responsibility objectives as well as the opportunity for energy independence and uninterruptible operation. Interestingly, many of these interests are mirrdred at residential level, inspiring CSIRO's commercialisation of a domestic scale solar air conditioner with Australian manufacturer Brevis Climate Systems. Australia and other countries are increasingly aware of solar cooling as technology which can reduce or replace grid-powered cooling, particularly in applications where large building thermal energy requirements exist. In these applications, heating, cooling and hot water are generated and used in large amounts and the relative amounts of each can be varied dynamically, depending on building requirements. Recent demonstrations of solar cooling technology in Australia include Hunter TAFE's Solar Desiccant Cooling System - which provides heating, cooling and hot water to commercial training kitchens and classrooms - GPT

  15. Topology optimization for optical projection lithography with manufacturing uncertainties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Mingdong; Lazarov, Boyan Stefanov; Sigmund, Ole

    2014-01-01

    to manufacturing without additional optical proximity correction (OPC). The performance of the optimized device is robust toward the considered process variations. With the proposed unified approach, the design for photolithography is achieved by considering the optimal device performance and manufacturability......This article presents a topology optimization approach for micro-and nano-devices fabricated by optical projection lithography. Incorporating the photolithography process and the manufacturing uncertainties into the topology optimization process results in a binary mask that can be sent directly...

  16. Emergency core cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Akira; Kobayashi, Masahide.

    1983-01-01

    Purpose: To enable a stable operation of an emergency core cooling system by preventing the system from the automatic stopping at an abnormally high level of the reactor water during its operation. Constitution: A pump flow rate signal and a reactor water level signal are used and, when the reactor water level is increased to a predetermined level, the pump flow rate is controlled by the reactor water level signal instead of the flow rate signal. Specifically, when the reactor water level is gradually increased by the water injection from the pump and exceeds a setting signal for the water level, the water level deviation signal acts as a demand signal for the decrease in the flow rate of the pump and the output signal from the water level controller is also decreased depending on the control constant. At a certain point, the output signal from the water level controller becomes smaller than the output signal from the flow rate controller. Thus, the output signal from the water level controller is outputted as the output signal for the lower level preference device. In this way, the reactor water level and the pump flow rate can be controlled within a range not exceeding the predetermined pump flow rate. (Horiuchi, T.)

  17. Cooling water injection system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inai, Nobuhiko.

    1989-01-01

    In a BWR type reactor, ECCS system is constituted as a so-called stand-by system which is not used during usual operation and there is a significant discontinuity in relation with the usual system. It is extremely important that ECCS operates upon occurrence of accidents just as specified. In view of the above in the present invention, the stand-by system is disposed along the same line with the usual system. That is, a driving water supply pump for supplying driving water to a jet pump is driven by a driving mechanism. The driving mechanism drives continuously the driving water supply pump in a case if an expected accident such as loss of the function of the water supply pump, as well as during normal operation. That is, all of the water supply pump, jet pump, driving water supply pump and driving mechanism therefor are caused to operate also during normal operation. The operation of them are not initiated upon accident. Thus, the cooling water injection system can perform at high reliability to remarkably improve the plant safety. (K.M.)

  18. Magnet cooling economics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parmer, J.F.; Liggett, M.W.

    1985-01-01

    The recommendation to use superfluid helium II in superconducting magnet design has become more prevalent in recent years. Advanced fusion reactor studies such as the Mirror Advanced Reactor Study recently completed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLML) have based superconducting magnet design on the use of He II because of reduced magnet volume, improved stability characteristics, or increased superconductor critical current at fields above 9 Tesla. This paper reports the results of a study to determine the capital costs ($/watt) and the operating costs (watts/watt) of refrigeration systems in the 1.8K to 300K temperature range. The cost data is applied to a 1.8K magnet that is subject to neutronic heating wherein the magnet case is insulated from the winding so that the case can be cooled at a higher temperature (less costly) than the winding. The life cycle cost (capital plus operating) is reported as a function of coil temperature and insulation thickness. In some cases there is an optimum, least-cost thickness. In addition, the basic data can be used to evaluate the impact of neutron shielding effectiveness trades on the combined shield, magnet, cryorefrigerator, and operating life cycle cost

  19. How to live with uncertainties?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michel, R.

    2012-01-01

    In a short introduction, the problem of uncertainty as a general consequence of incomplete information as well as the approach to quantify uncertainty in metrology are addressed. A little history of the more than 30 years of the working group AK SIGMA is followed by an appraisal of its up-to-now achievements. Then, the potential future of the AK SIGMA is discussed based on its actual tasks and on open scientific questions and future topics. (orig.)

  20. Some remarks on modeling uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ronen, Y.

    1983-01-01

    Several topics related to the question of modeling uncertainties are considered. The first topic is related to the use of the generalized bias operator method for modeling uncertainties. The method is expanded to a more general form of operators. The generalized bias operator is also used in the inverse problem and applied to determine the anisotropic scattering law. The last topic discussed is related to the question of the limit to accuracy and how to establish its value. (orig.) [de

  1. Uncertainty analysis in safety assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de; Sullivan, Terry

    1997-01-01

    Nuclear waste disposal is a very complex subject which requires the study of many different fields of science, like hydro geology, meteorology, geochemistry, etc. In addition, the waste disposal facilities are designed to last for a very long period of time. Both of these conditions make safety assessment projections filled with uncertainty. This paper addresses approaches for treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment modeling due to the variability of data and some current approaches used to deal with this problem. (author)

  2. Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hessling, J P

    2011-01-01

    The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result

  3. Optimal Taxation under Income Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Xianhua Dai

    2011-01-01

    Optimal taxation under income uncertainty has been extensively developed in expected utility theory, but it is still open for inseparable utility function between income and effort. As an alternative of decision-making under uncertainty, prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky (1979), Tversky and Kahneman (1992)) has been obtained empirical support, for example, Kahneman and Tversky (1979), and Camerer and Lowenstein (2003). It is beginning to explore optimal taxation in the context of prospect...

  4. New Perspectives on Policy Uncertainty

    OpenAIRE

    Hlatshwayo, Sandile

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, the ubiquitous and intensifying nature of economic policy uncertainty has made it a popular explanation for weak economic performance in developed and developing markets alike. The primary channel for this effect is decreased and delayed investment as firms adopt a ``wait and see'' approach to irreversible investments (Bernanke, 1983; Dixit and Pindyck, 1994). Deep empirical examination of policy uncertainty's impact is rare because of the difficulty associated in measuring i...

  5. Uncertainty analysis methods for estimation of reliability of passive system of VHTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, S.J.

    2012-01-01

    An estimation of reliability of passive system for the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a very high temperature reactor (VHTR) is under development in Korea. The essential approach of this estimation is to measure the uncertainty of the system performance under a specific accident condition. The uncertainty propagation approach according to the simulation of phenomenological models (computer codes) is adopted as a typical method to estimate the uncertainty for this purpose. This presentation introduced the uncertainty propagation and discussed the related issues focusing on the propagation object and its surrogates. To achieve a sufficient level of depth of uncertainty results, the applicability of the propagation should be carefully reviewed. For an example study, Latin-hypercube sampling (LHS) method as a direct propagation was tested for a specific accident sequence of VHTR. The reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) developed by KAERI was considered for this example study. This is an air-cooled type passive system that has no active components for its operation. The accident sequence is a low pressure conduction cooling (LPCC) accident that is considered as a design basis accident for the safety design of VHTR. This sequence is due to a large failure of the pressure boundary of the reactor system such as a guillotine break of coolant pipe lines. The presentation discussed the obtained insights (benefit and weakness) to apply an estimation of reliability of passive system

  6. Uncertainty Analysis of the Temperature–Resistance Relationship of Temperature Sensing Fabric

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Dawood Husain

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports the uncertainty analysis of the temperature–resistance (TR data of the newly developed temperature sensing fabric (TSF, which is a double-layer knitted structure fabricated on an electronic flat-bed knitting machine, made of polyester as a basal yarn, and embedded with fine metallic wire as sensing element. The measurement principle of the TSF is identical to temperature resistance detector (RTD; that is, change in resistance due to change in temperature. The regression uncertainty (uncertainty within repeats and repeatability uncertainty (uncertainty among repeats were estimated by analysing more than 300 TR experimental repeats of 50 TSF samples. The experiments were performed under dynamic heating and cooling environments on a purpose-built test rig within the temperature range of 20–50 °C. The continuous experimental data was recorded through LabVIEW-based graphical user interface. The result showed that temperature and resistance values were not only repeatable but reproducible, with only minor variations. The regression uncertainty was found to be less than ±0.3 °C; the TSF sample made of Ni and W wires showed regression uncertainty of <±0.13 °C in comparison to Cu-based TSF samples (>±0.18 °C. The cooling TR data showed considerably reduced values (±0.07 °C of uncertainty in comparison with the heating TR data (±0.24 °C. The repeatability uncertainty was found to be less than ±0.5 °C. By increasing the number of samples and repeats, the uncertainties may be reduced further. The TSF could be used for continuous measurement of the temperature profile on the surface of the human body.

  7. Cost-effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Lucy E; Heard, Geoffrey W; Chee, Yung En; Wintle, Brendan A

    2016-04-01

    How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well-developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one-time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost-effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost-effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost-effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost-effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost-effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost-effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost-effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost

  8. Reducing uncertainty in geostatistical description with well testing pressure data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reynolds, A.C.; He, Nanqun [Univ. of Tulsa, OK (United States); Oliver, D.S. [Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, La Habra, CA (United States)

    1997-08-01

    Geostatistics has proven to be an effective tool for generating realizations of reservoir properties conditioned to static data, e.g., core and log data and geologic knowledge. Due to the lack of closely spaced data in the lateral directions, there will be significant variability in reservoir descriptions generated by geostatistical simulation, i.e., significant uncertainty in the reservoir descriptions. In past work, we have presented procedures based on inverse problem theory for generating reservoir descriptions (rock property fields) conditioned to pressure data and geostatistical information represented as prior means for log-permeability and porosity and variograms. Although we have shown that the incorporation of pressure data reduces the uncertainty below the level contained in the geostatistical model based only on static information (the prior model), our previous results assumed did not explicitly account for uncertainties in the prior means and the parameters defining the variogram model. In this work, we investigate how pressure data can help detect errors in the prior means. If errors in the prior means are large and are not taken into account, realizations conditioned to pressure data represent incorrect samples of the a posteriori probability density function for the rock property fields, whereas, if the uncertainty in the prior mean is incorporated properly into the model, one obtains realistic realizations of the rock property fields.

  9. Pharmacological Fingerprints of Contextual Uncertainty.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louise Marshall

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Successful interaction with the environment requires flexible updating of our beliefs about the world. By estimating the likelihood of future events, it is possible to prepare appropriate actions in advance and execute fast, accurate motor responses. According to theoretical proposals, agents track the variability arising from changing environments by computing various forms of uncertainty. Several neuromodulators have been linked to uncertainty signalling, but comprehensive empirical characterisation of their relative contributions to perceptual belief updating, and to the selection of motor responses, is lacking. Here we assess the roles of noradrenaline, acetylcholine, and dopamine within a single, unified computational framework of uncertainty. Using pharmacological interventions in a sample of 128 healthy human volunteers and a hierarchical Bayesian learning model, we characterise the influences of noradrenergic, cholinergic, and dopaminergic receptor antagonism on individual computations of uncertainty during a probabilistic serial reaction time task. We propose that noradrenaline influences learning of uncertain events arising from unexpected changes in the environment. In contrast, acetylcholine balances attribution of uncertainty to chance fluctuations within an environmental context, defined by a stable set of probabilistic associations, or to gross environmental violations following a contextual switch. Dopamine supports the use of uncertainty representations to engender fast, adaptive responses.

  10. Effect of cooling water on stability of NLC linac components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F. Le Pimpec et al.

    2003-02-11

    Vertical vibration of linac components (accelerating structures, girders and quadrupoles) in the NLC has been studied experimentally and analytically. Effects such as structural resonances and vibration caused by cooling water both in accelerating structures and quadrupoles have been considered. Experimental data has been compared with analytical predictions and simulations using ANSYS. A design, incorporating the proper decoupling of structure vibrations from the linac quadrupoles, is being pursued.

  11. Effect of Cooling Water on Stability of NLC Linac Components

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Pimpec, Frederic

    2002-11-01

    Vertical vibration of linac components (accelerating structures, girders and quadrupoles) in the NLC has been studied experimentally and analytically. Effects such as structural resonances and vibration caused by cooling water both in accelerating structures and quadrupoles have been considered. Experimental data has been compared with analytical predictions and simulations using ANSYS. A design, incorporating the proper decoupling of structure vibrations from the linac quadrupoles, is being pursued.

  12. A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buslik, A.

    1994-01-01

    A Bayesian approach to model uncertainty is taken. For the case of a finite number of alternative models, the model uncertainty is equivalent to parameter uncertainty. A derivation based on Savage's partition problem is given

  13. The NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crespo, Luis G.; Kenny, Sean P.; Giesy, Daniel P.

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the formulation of an uncertainty quantification challenge problem consisting of five subproblems. These problems focus on key aspects of uncertainty characterization, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty propagation, extreme-case analysis, and robust design.

  14. Mold heating and cooling microprocessor conversion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, D. P.

    1995-07-01

    Conversion of the microprocessors and software for the Mold Heating and Cooling (MHAC) pump package control systems was initiated to allow required system enhancements and provide data communications capabilities with the Plastics Information and Control System (PICS). The existing microprocessor-based control systems for the pump packages use an Intel 8088-based microprocessor board with a maximum of 64 Kbytes of program memory. The requirements for the system conversion were developed, and hardware has been selected to allow maximum reuse of existing hardware and software while providing the required additional capabilities and capacity. The new hardware will incorporate an Intel 80286-based microprocessor board with an 80287 math coprocessor, the system includes additional memory, I/O, and RS232 communication ports.

  15. Stochastic cooling in muon colliders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barletta, W.A.; Sessler, A.M.

    1993-09-01

    Analysis of muon production techniques for high energy colliders indicates the need for rapid and effective beam cooling in order that one achieve luminosities > 10 30 cm -2 s -1 as required for high energy physics experiments. This paper considers stochastic cooling to increase the phase space density of the muons in the collider. Even at muon energies greater than 100 GeV, the number of muons per bunch must be limited to ∼10 3 for the cooling rate to be less than the muon lifetime. With such a small number of muons per bunch, the final beam emittance implied by the luminosity requirement is well below the thermodynamic limit for beam electronics at practical temperatures. Rapid bunch stacking after the cooling process can raise the number of muons per bunch to a level consistent with both the luminosity goals and with practical temperatures for the stochastic cooling electronics. A major advantage of our stochastic cooling/stacking scheme over scenarios that employ only ionization cooling is that the power on the production target can be reduced below 1 MW

  16. Hybrid cooling tower Neckarwestheim 2 cooling function, emission, plume dispersion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braeuning, G.; Ernst, G.; Maeule, R.; Necker, P.

    1990-01-01

    The fan-assisted hybrid cooling tower of the 1300 MW power plant Gemeinschafts-Kernkraftwerk Neckarwestheim 2 was designed and constructed based on results from theoretical and experimental studies and experiences from a smaller prototype. The wet part acts in counterflow. The dry part is arranged above the wet part. Each part contains 44 fans. Special attention was payed to the ducts which mix the dry into the wet plume. The cooling function and state, mass flow and contents of the emission were measured. The dispersion of the plume in the atmosphere was observed. The central results are presented in this paper. The cooling function corresponds to the predictions. The content of drifted cooling water in the plume is extremely low. The high velocity of the plume in the exit causes an undisturbed flow into the atmosphere. The hybrid operation reduces visible plumes strongly, especially in warmer and drier ambient air

  17. Emergency cooling system for a gas-cooled nuclear reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, R.K.; Burylo, P.S.

    1975-01-01

    The site of the gas-cooled reactor with direct-circuit gas turbine is preferably the sea coast. An emergency cooling system with safety valve and emergency feed-water addition is designed which affects at least a part of the reactor core coolant after leaving the core. The emergency cooling system includes a water emergency cooling circuit with heat exchanger for the core coolant. The safety valve releases water or steam from the emergency coolant circuit when a certain temperature is exceeded; this is, however, replaced by the emergency feed-water. If the gas turbine exhibits a high and low pressure turbine stage, which are flowed through by coolant one behind another, a part of the coolant can be removed in front of each part turbine by two valves and be added to the haet exchanger. (RW/LH) [de

  18. Cooling facility of nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arai, Kenji; Nagasaki, Hideo.

    1992-01-01

    In a cooling device of a nuclear power plant, an exhaust pipe for an incondensible gas is branched. One of the branched exhaust pipes is opened in a pressure suppression pool water in a suppression chamber containing pool water and the other is opened at a lower portion of a dry well incorporating a pressure vessel. In a state where the pressure in the dry well is higher than that in the suppression chamber, an off-gas is exhausted effectively by way of the exhaustion pipe in communication with the suppression chamber. In a state where there is no difference between the pressures and the opening end of the exhaustion pipe in communication with the suppression chamber is sealed with water, off-gas is exhausted by way of the exhaustion pipe in communication with the lower portion of the dry well. Then, since the incondensible gas in a heat transfer pipe is not accumulated, after-heat can be removed efficiently. Satisfactory cooling is maintained even after the coincidence of the pressures in the dry well with that in the suppression chamber, to decrease a pressure in a reactor container. (N.H.)

  19. Electromechanically cooled germanium radiation detector system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lavietes, Anthony D.; Joseph Mauger, G.; Anderson, Eric H.

    1999-01-01

    We have successfully developed and fielded an electromechanically cooled germanium radiation detector (EMC-HPGe) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). This detector system was designed to provide optimum energy resolution, long lifetime, and extremely reliable operation for unattended and portable applications. For most analytical applications, high purity germanium (HPGe) detectors are the standard detectors of choice, providing an unsurpassed combination of high energy resolution performance and exceptional detection efficiency. Logistical difficulties associated with providing the required liquid nitrogen (LN) for cooling is the primary reason that these systems are found mainly in laboratories. The EMC-HPGe detector system described in this paper successfully provides HPGe detector performance in a portable instrument that allows for isotopic analysis in the field. It incorporates a unique active vibration control system that allows the use of a Sunpower Stirling cycle cryocooler unit without significant spectral degradation from microphonics. All standard isotopic analysis codes, including MGA and MGA++, GAMANL, GRPANL and MGAU, typically used with HPGe detectors can be used with this system with excellent results. Several national and international Safeguards organisations including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have expressed interest in this system. The detector was combined with custom software and demonstrated as a rapid Field Radiometric Identification System (FRIS) for the U.S. Customs Service . The European Communities' Safeguards Directorate (EURATOM) is field-testing the first Safeguards prototype in their applications. The EMC-HPGe detector system design, recent applications, and results will be highlighted

  20. The Cool 100 book

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haselip, J.; Pointing, D.

    2011-07-01

    The aim of The Cool 100 book is to document 100 inspiring, educational and practical examples of sustainable and accessible energy supply solutions created by, or suitable for, isolated communities in the cooler regions of the world. The book features the following projects, explored in detail: 1. Promoting Unst Renewable Energy (PURE) project, a pioneering project that demonstrates how wind power and hydrogen technologies can be combined to meet the energy needs of a remote industrial estate on the island of Unst in the British Isles. 2. The EDISON project, or Electric vehicles in a Distributed and Integrated market using Sustainable energy and Open Networks that explored increased renewable energy use and electric vehicle operation in Denmark, with a case study on the island of Bornholm. 3. The Sarfannguit Wireless Electricity Reading project, which has significantly improved utility metering and enabled improved energy management, reduced electricity demand, and the introduction of renewable energy technologies in the isolated villages of Greenland. 4. The Renewable Energy Croft and Hydrogen facility, which uses innovative technologies to support a gardening facility in the Outer Hebrides (Scotland), and is also a working laboratory for students of the local university to develop a hydrogen energy economy. 5. The Samsoe Renewable Energy Island in Denmark, an iconic example of how an island community can consume only green electricity by using a range of innovative technologies and behavioural changes to reduce demand and to harness green energy resources. 6. The Hydrogen Office Project which demonstrates how a commercial office in the coastal town of Methil in Scotland can be supported by a novel renewable, hydrogen and fuel cell energy system, and how the local community is engaged with the project. 7. The Northern Sustainable House in Nunavut, Canada, which explores the process and results of a project to design and implement housing for local families that

  1. CO$_2$ cooling experience (LHCb)

    CERN Document Server

    Van Lysebetten, Ann; Verlaat, Bart

    2007-01-01

    The thermal control system of the LHCb VErtex LOcator (VELO) is a two-phase C0$_2$ cooling system based on the 2-Phase Accumulator Controlled Loop (2PACL) method. Liquid carbon dioxide is mechanically pumped in a closed loop, chilled by a water-cooled freon chiller and evaporated in the VELO detector. The main goal of the system is the permanent cooling of the VELO silicon sensors and of the heat producing front-end electronics inside a vacuum environment. This paper describes the design and the performance of the system. First results obtained during commissioning are also presented.

  2. Cooling towers principles and practice

    CERN Document Server

    Hill, G B; Osborn, Peter D

    1990-01-01

    Cooling Towers: Principles and Practice, Third Edition, aims to provide the reader with a better understanding of the theory and practice, so that installations are correctly designed and operated. As with all branches of engineering, new technology calls for a level of technical knowledge which becomes progressively higher; this new edition seeks to ensure that the principles and practice of cooling towers are set against a background of up-to-date technology. The book is organized into three sections. Section A on cooling tower practice covers topics such as the design and operation of c

  3. Do Orthopaedic Surgeons Acknowledge Uncertainty?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teunis, Teun; Janssen, Stein; Guitton, Thierry G; Ring, David; Parisien, Robert

    2016-06-01

    Much of the decision-making in orthopaedics rests on uncertain evidence. Uncertainty is therefore part of our normal daily practice, and yet physician uncertainty regarding treatment could diminish patients' health. It is not known if physician uncertainty is a function of the evidence alone or if other factors are involved. With added experience, uncertainty could be expected to diminish, but perhaps more influential are things like physician confidence, belief in the veracity of what is published, and even one's religious beliefs. In addition, it is plausible that the kind of practice a physician works in can affect the experience of uncertainty. Practicing physicians may not be immediately aware of these effects on how uncertainty is experienced in their clinical decision-making. We asked: (1) Does uncertainty and overconfidence bias decrease with years of practice? (2) What sociodemographic factors are independently associated with less recognition of uncertainty, in particular belief in God or other deity or deities, and how is atheism associated with recognition of uncertainty? (3) Do confidence bias (confidence that one's skill is greater than it actually is), degree of trust in the orthopaedic evidence, and degree of statistical sophistication correlate independently with recognition of uncertainty? We created a survey to establish an overall recognition of uncertainty score (four questions), trust in the orthopaedic evidence base (four questions), confidence bias (three questions), and statistical understanding (six questions). Seven hundred six members of the Science of Variation Group, a collaboration that aims to study variation in the definition and treatment of human illness, were approached to complete our survey. This group represents mainly orthopaedic surgeons specializing in trauma or hand and wrist surgery, practicing in Europe and North America, of whom the majority is involved in teaching. Approximately half of the group has more than 10 years

  4. Passive low energy cooling of buildings

    CERN Document Server

    Givoni, Baruch

    1994-01-01

    A practical sourcebook for building designers, providing comprehensive discussion of the impact of basic architectural choices on cooling efficiency, including the layout and orientation of the structure, window size and shading, exterior color, and even the use of plantings around the site. All major varieties of passive cooling systems are presented, with extensive analysis of performance in different types of buildings and in different climates: ventilation; radiant cooling; evaporative cooling; soil cooling; and cooling of outdoor spaces.

  5. A Peep into the Uncertainty-Complexity-Relevance Modeling Trilemma through Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munoz-Carpena, R.; Muller, S. J.; Chu, M.; Kiker, G. A.; Perz, S. G.

    2014-12-01

    Model Model complexity resulting from the need to integrate environmental system components cannot be understated. In particular, additional emphasis is urgently needed on rational approaches to guide decision making through uncertainties surrounding the integrated system across decision-relevant scales. However, in spite of the difficulties that the consideration of modeling uncertainty represent for the decision process, it should not be avoided or the value and science behind the models will be undermined. These two issues; i.e., the need for coupled models that can answer the pertinent questions and the need for models that do so with sufficient certainty, are the key indicators of a model's relevance. Model relevance is inextricably linked with model complexity. Although model complexity has advanced greatly in recent years there has been little work to rigorously characterize the threshold of relevance in integrated and complex models. Formally assessing the relevance of the model in the face of increasing complexity would be valuable because there is growing unease among developers and users of complex models about the cumulative effects of various sources of uncertainty on model outputs. In particular, this issue has prompted doubt over whether the considerable effort going into further elaborating complex models will in fact yield the expected payback. New approaches have been proposed recently to evaluate the uncertainty-complexity-relevance modeling trilemma (Muller, Muñoz-Carpena and Kiker, 2011) by incorporating state-of-the-art global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis (GSA/UA) in every step of the model development so as to quantify not only the uncertainty introduced by the addition of new environmental components, but the effect that these new components have over existing components (interactions, non-linear responses). Outputs from the analysis can also be used to quantify system resilience (stability, alternative states, thresholds or tipping

  6. RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-06-17

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  7. Ruminations On NDA Measurement Uncertainty Compared TO DA Uncertainty

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

    2010-01-01

    It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

  8. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benjamin, Serge; Descures, Sylvain; Du Pasquier, Louis; Francois, Patrice; Buonarotti, Stefano; Mariotti, Giovanni; Tarakonov, Jurij; Daniska, Vladimir; Bergh, Niklas; Carroll, Simon; AaSTRoeM, Annika; Cato, Anna; De La Gardie, Fredrik; Haenggi, Hannes; Rodriguez, Jose; Laird, Alastair; Ridpath, Andy; La Guardia, Thomas; O'Sullivan, Patrick; ); Weber, Inge; )

    2017-01-01

    The cost estimation process of decommissioning nuclear facilities has continued to evolve in recent years, with a general trend towards demonstrating greater levels of detail in the estimate and more explicit consideration of uncertainties, the latter of which may have an impact on decommissioning project costs. The 2012 report on the International Structure for Decommissioning Costing (ISDC) of Nuclear Installations, a joint recommendation by the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA), the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the European Commission, proposes a standardised structure of cost items for decommissioning projects that can be used either directly for the production of cost estimates or for mapping of cost items for benchmarking purposes. The ISDC, however, provides only limited guidance on the treatment of uncertainty when preparing cost estimates. Addressing Uncertainties in Cost Estimates for Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities, prepared jointly by the NEA and IAEA, is intended to complement the ISDC, assisting cost estimators and reviewers in systematically addressing uncertainties in decommissioning cost estimates. Based on experiences gained in participating countries and projects, the report describes how uncertainty and risks can be analysed and incorporated in decommissioning cost estimates, while presenting the outcomes in a transparent manner

  9. Role of uncertainty in the basalt waste isolation project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knepp, A.J.; Dahlem, D.H.

    1989-01-01

    The current national Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (CRWM) Program to select a mined geologic repository will likely require the extensive use of probabilistic techniques to quantify uncertainty in predictions of repository isolation performance. Performance of nonhomogeneous, geologic hydrologic, and chemical systems must be predicted over time frames of thousands of years and therefore will likely contain significant uncertainty. A qualitative assessment of our limited ability to interrogate the site in a nondestructive manner coupled with the early stage of development in the pertinent geosciences support this statement. The success of the approach to incorporate what currently appears to be an appreciable element of uncertainty into the predictions of repository performance will play an important role in acquiring a license to operate and in establishing the level of safety associated with the concept of long-term geologic storage of nuclear waste. This paper presents a brief background on the Hanford Site and the repository program, references the sources that establish the legislative requirement to quantify uncertainties in performance predictions, and summarized the present and future program at the Hanford Site in this area. The decision to quantify significant sources of uncertainties has had a major impact on the direction of the site characterization program here at Hanford. The paper concludes with a number of observations on the impacts of this decision

  10. Energy Savers: Cool Summer Tips

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, M.

    2001-01-01

    A tri-fold brochure addressing energy-saving tips for homeowners ranging from low- or no-cost suggestions to higher cost suggestions for longer-term savings. Cooling, windows, weatherizing, and landscaping are addressed

  11. Extended analysis of cooling curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Djurdjevic, M.B.; Kierkus, W.T.; Liliac, R.E.; Sokolowski, J.H.

    2002-01-01

    Thermal Analysis (TA) is the measurement of changes in a physical property of a material that is heated through a phase transformation temperature range. The temperature changes in the material are recorded as a function of the heating or cooling time in such a manner that allows for the detection of phase transformations. In order to increase accuracy, characteristic points on the cooling curve have been identified using the first derivative curve plotted versus time. In this paper, an alternative approach to the analysis of the cooling curve has been proposed. The first derivative curve has been plotted versus temperature and all characteristic points have been identified with the same accuracy achieved using the traditional method. The new cooling curve analysis also enables the Dendrite Coherency Point (DCP) to be detected using only one thermocouple. (author)

  12. Geothermal heat can cool, too

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wellstein, J.

    2008-01-01

    This article takes a look at how geothermal energy can not only be used to supply heating energy, but also be used to provide cooling too. The article reports on a conference on heating and cooling with geothermal energy that was held in Duebendorf, Switzerland, in March 2008. The influence of climate change on needs for heating and cooling and the need for additional knowledge and data on deeper rock layers is noted. The seasonal use of geothermal systems to provide heating in winter and cooling in summer is discussed. The planning of geothermal probe fields and their simulation is addressed. As an example, the geothermal installations under the recently renewed and extended 'Dolder Grand' luxury hotel in Zurich are quoted. The new SIA 384/6 norm on geothermal probes issued by the Swiss Association of Architects SIA is briefly reviewed.

  13. Critical loads - assessment of uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barkman, A.

    1998-10-01

    The effects of data uncertainty in applications of the critical loads concept were investigated on different spatial resolutions in Sweden and northern Czech Republic. Critical loads of acidity (CL) were calculated for Sweden using the biogeochemical model PROFILE. Three methods with different structural complexity were used to estimate the adverse effects of S0{sub 2} concentrations in northern Czech Republic. Data uncertainties in the calculated critical loads/levels and exceedances (EX) were assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. Uncertainties within cumulative distribution functions (CDF) were aggregated by accounting for the overlap between site specific confidence intervals. Aggregation of data uncertainties within CDFs resulted in lower CL and higher EX best estimates in comparison with percentiles represented by individual sites. Data uncertainties were consequently found to advocate larger deposition reductions to achieve non-exceedance based on low critical loads estimates on 150 x 150 km resolution. Input data were found to impair the level of differentiation between geographical units at all investigated resolutions. Aggregation of data uncertainty within CDFs involved more constrained confidence intervals for a given percentile. Differentiation as well as identification of grid cells on 150 x 150 km resolution subjected to EX was generally improved. Calculation of the probability of EX was shown to preserve the possibility to differentiate between geographical units. Re-aggregation of the 95%-ile EX on 50 x 50 km resolution generally increased the confidence interval for each percentile. Significant relationships were found between forest decline and the three methods addressing risks induced by S0{sub 2} concentrations. Modifying S0{sub 2} concentrations by accounting for the length of the vegetation period was found to constitute the most useful trade-off between structural complexity, data availability and effects of data uncertainty. Data

  14. Uncertainty Quantification in Numerical Aerodynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Litvinenko, Alexander

    2017-05-16

    We consider uncertainty quantification problem in aerodynamic simulations. We identify input uncertainties, classify them, suggest an appropriate statistical model and, finally, estimate propagation of these uncertainties into the solution (pressure, velocity and density fields as well as the lift and drag coefficients). The deterministic problem under consideration is a compressible transonic Reynolds-averaged Navier-Strokes flow around an airfoil with random/uncertain data. Input uncertainties include: uncertain angle of attack, the Mach number, random perturbations in the airfoil geometry, mesh, shock location, turbulence model and parameters of this turbulence model. This problem requires efficient numerical/statistical methods since it is computationally expensive, especially for the uncertainties caused by random geometry variations which involve a large number of variables. In numerical section we compares five methods, including quasi-Monte Carlo quadrature, polynomial chaos with coefficients determined by sparse quadrature and gradient-enhanced version of Kriging, radial basis functions and point collocation polynomial chaos, in their efficiency in estimating statistics of aerodynamic performance upon random perturbation to the airfoil geometry [D.Liu et al \\'17]. For modeling we used the TAU code, developed in DLR, Germany.

  15. Uncertainty in spatial planning proceedings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleš Mlakar

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainty is distinctive of spatial planning as it arises from the necessity to co-ordinate the various interests within the area, from the urgency of adopting spatial planning decisions, the complexity of the environment, physical space and society, addressing the uncertainty of the future and from the uncertainty of actually making the right decision. Response to uncertainty is a series of measures that mitigate the effects of uncertainty itself. These measures are based on two fundamental principles – standardization and optimization. The measures are related to knowledge enhancement and spatial planning comprehension, in the legal regulation of changes, in the existence of spatial planning as a means of different interests co-ordination, in the active planning and the constructive resolution of current spatial problems, in the integration of spatial planning and the environmental protection process, in the implementation of the analysis as the foundation of spatial planners activities, in the methods of thinking outside the parameters, in forming clear spatial concepts and in creating a transparent management spatial system and also in the enforcement the participatory processes.

  16. Uncertainty modeling and decision support

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yager, Ronald R.

    2004-01-01

    We first formulate the problem of decision making under uncertainty. The importance of the representation of our knowledge about the uncertainty in formulating a decision process is pointed out. We begin with a brief discussion of the case of probabilistic uncertainty. Next, in considerable detail, we discuss the case of decision making under ignorance. For this case the fundamental role of the attitude of the decision maker is noted and its subjective nature is emphasized. Next the case in which a Dempster-Shafer belief structure is used to model our knowledge of the uncertainty is considered. Here we also emphasize the subjective choices the decision maker must make in formulating a decision function. The case in which the uncertainty is represented by a fuzzy measure (monotonic set function) is then investigated. We then return to the Dempster-Shafer belief structure and show its relationship to the fuzzy measure. This relationship allows us to get a deeper understanding of the formulation the decision function used Dempster- Shafer framework. We discuss how this deeper understanding allows a decision analyst to better make the subjective choices needed in the formulation of the decision function

  17. Cooling methods for power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaspersic, B.; Fabjan, L.; Petelin, S.

    1977-01-01

    There are some results of measurements carried out on the wet cooling tower 275 MWe at TE Sostanj and on the experimental cooling tower at Jozef Stefan Institute, as well. They are including: the measurements of the output air conditions, the measurements of the cross current of water film and vapour-air flowing through two plates, and the distribution of velocity in boundary layer measured by anemometer

  18. Induced draught circular cooling tower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanquet, J.C.

    1980-01-01

    Induced draught atmospheric cooling towers are described, to wit those in which the circulation is by power fans. This technique with fans grouped together in the centre enables a single tower to be used and provides an excellent integration of the steam wreath into the atmosphere. This type of cooling tower has been chosen for fitting out two 900 MW units of the Chinon power station in France [fr

  19. DETERMINATION OF RADIATOR COOLING SURFACE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. I. Yakubovich

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper proposes a methodology for calculation of a radiator cooling surface with due account of heat transfer non-uniformity on depth of its core. Calculation of radiator cooling surfaces of «Belarus-1221» and «Belarus-3022» tractors has been carried out in the paper. The paper also advances standard size series of radiators for powerful «Belarus» tractor type.

  20. Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties in fuel cycle calculations using Monte-Carlo technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diez, C.J.; Cabellos, O.; Martinez, J.S.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, the knowledge of uncertainty propagation in depletion calculations is a critical issue because of the safety and economical performance of fuel cycles. Response magnitudes such as decay heat, radiotoxicity and isotopic inventory and their uncertainties should be known to handle spent fuel in present fuel cycles (e.g. high burnup fuel programme) and furthermore in new fuel cycles designs (e.g. fast breeder reactors and ADS). To deal with this task, there are different error propagation techniques, deterministic (adjoint/forward sensitivity analysis) and stochastic (Monte-Carlo technique) to evaluate the error in response magnitudes due to nuclear data uncertainties. In our previous works, cross-section uncertainties were propagated using a Monte-Carlo technique to calculate the uncertainty of response magnitudes such as decay heat and neutron emission. Also, the propagation of decay data, fission yield and cross-section uncertainties was performed, but only isotopic composition was the response magnitude calculated. Following the previous technique, the nuclear data uncertainties are taken into account and propagated to response magnitudes, decay heat and radiotoxicity. These uncertainties are assessed during cooling time. To evaluate this Monte-Carlo technique, two different applications are performed. First, a fission pulse decay heat calculation is carried out to check the Monte-Carlo technique, using decay data and fission yields uncertainties. Then, the results, experimental data and reference calculation (JEFF Report20), are compared. Second, we assess the impact of basic nuclear data (activation cross-section, decay data and fission yields) uncertainties on relevant fuel cycle parameters (decay heat and radiotoxicity) for a conceptual design of a modular European Facility for Industrial Transmutation (EFIT) fuel cycle. After identifying which time steps have higher uncertainties, an assessment of which uncertainties have more relevance is performed

  1. Validation uncertainty of MATRA code for subchannel void distributions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hwang, Dae-Hyun; Kim, S. J.; Kwon, H.; Seo, K. W. [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-10-15

    To extend code capability to the whole core subchannel analysis, pre-conditioned Krylov matrix solvers such as BiCGSTAB and GMRES are implemented in MATRA code as well as parallel computing algorithms using MPI and OPENMP. It is coded by fortran 90, and has some user friendly features such as graphic user interface. MATRA code was approved by Korean regulation body for design calculation of integral-type PWR named SMART. The major role subchannel code is to evaluate core thermal margin through the hot channel analysis and uncertainty evaluation for CHF predictions. In addition, it is potentially used for the best estimation of core thermal hydraulic field by incorporating into multiphysics and/or multi-scale code systems. In this study we examined a validation process for the subchannel code MATRA specifically in the prediction of subchannel void distributions. The primary objective of validation is to estimate a range within which the simulation modeling error lies. The experimental data for subchannel void distributions at steady state and transient conditions was provided on the framework of OECD/NEA UAM benchmark program. The validation uncertainty of MATRA code was evaluated for a specific experimental condition by comparing the simulation result and experimental data. A validation process should be preceded by code and solution verification. However, quantification of verification uncertainty was not addressed in this study. The validation uncertainty of the MATRA code for predicting subchannel void distribution was evaluated for a single data point of void fraction measurement at a 5x5 PWR test bundle on the framework of OECD UAM benchmark program. The validation standard uncertainties were evaluated as 4.2%, 3.9%, and 2.8% with the Monte-Carlo approach at the axial levels of 2216 mm, 2669 mm, and 3177 mm, respectively. The sensitivity coefficient approach revealed similar results of uncertainties but did not account for the nonlinear effects on the

  2. HTGR reactor physics, thermal-hydraulics and depletion uncertainty analysis: a proposed IAEA coordinated research project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyobeka, Bismark; Reitsma, Frederik; Ivanov, Kostadin

    2011-01-01

    The continued development of High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactors (HTGRs) requires verification of HTGR design and safety features with reliable high fidelity physics models and robust, efficient, and accurate codes. The predictive capability of coupled neutronics/thermal hydraulics and depletion simulations for reactor design and safety analysis can be assessed with sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis methods. In order to benefit from recent advances in modeling and simulation and the availability of new covariance data (nuclear data uncertainties) extensive sensitivity and uncertainty studies are needed for quantification of the impact of different sources of uncertainties on the design and safety parameters of HTGRs. Uncertainty and sensitivity studies are an essential component of any significant effort in data and simulation improvement. In February 2009, the Technical Working Group on Gas-Cooled Reactors recommended that the proposed IAEA Coordinated Research Project (CRP) on the HTGR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling be implemented. In the paper the current status and plan are presented. The CRP will also benefit from interactions with the currently ongoing OECD/NEA Light Water Reactor (LWR) UAM benchmark activity by taking into consideration the peculiarities of HTGR designs and simulation requirements. (author)

  3. Socializing Identity Through Practice: A Mixed Methods Approach to Family Medicine Resident Perspectives on Uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ledford, Christy J W; Cafferty, Lauren A; Seehusen, Dean A

    2015-01-01

    Uncertainty is a central theme in the practice of medicine and particularly primary care. This study explored how family medicine resident physicians react to uncertainty in their practice. This study incorporated a two-phase mixed methods approach, including semi-structured personal interviews (n=21) and longitudinal self-report surveys (n=21) with family medicine residents. Qualitative analysis showed that though residents described uncertainty as an implicit part of their identity, they still developed tactics to minimize or manage uncertainty in their practice. Residents described increasing comfort with uncertainty the longer they practiced and anticipated that growth continuing throughout their careers. Quantitative surveys showed that reactions to uncertainty were more positive over time; however, the difference was not statistically significant. Qualitative and quantitative results show that as family medicine residents practice medicine their perception of uncertainty changes. To reduce uncertainty, residents use relational information-seeking strategies. From a broader view of practice, residents describe uncertainty neutrally, asserting that uncertainty is simply part of the practice of family medicine.

  4. Comprehensive neutron cross-section and secondary energy distribution uncertainty analysis for a fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerstl, S.A.W.; LaBauve, R.J.; Young, P.G.

    1980-05-01

    On the example of General Atomic's well-documented Power Generating Fusion Reactor (PGFR) design, this report exercises a comprehensive neutron cross-section and secondary energy distribution (SED) uncertainty analysis. The LASL sensitivity and uncertainty analysis code SENSIT is used to calculate reaction cross-section sensitivity profiles and integral SED sensitivity coefficients. These are then folded with covariance matrices and integral SED uncertainties to obtain the resulting uncertainties of three calculated neutronics design parameters: two critical radiation damage rates and a nuclear heating rate. The report documents the first sensitivity-based data uncertainty analysis, which incorporates a quantitative treatment of the effects of SED uncertainties. The results demonstrate quantitatively that the ENDF/B-V cross-section data files for C, H, and O, including their SED data, are fully adequate for this design application, while the data for Fe and Ni are at best marginally adequate because they give rise to response uncertainties up to 25%. Much higher response uncertainties are caused by cross-section and SED data uncertainties in Cu (26 to 45%), tungsten (24 to 54%), and Cr (up to 98%). Specific recommendations are given for re-evaluations of certain reaction cross-sections, secondary energy distributions, and uncertainty estimates

  5. Cryogenic cooling system for HTS cable

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoshida, Shigeru [Taiyo Nippon Sanso, Tsukuba (Japan)

    2017-06-15

    Recently, Research and development activity of HTS (High Temperature Superconducting) power application is very progressive worldwide. Especially, HTS cable system and HTSFCL (HTS Fault current limiter) system are proceeding to practical stages. In such system and equipment, cryogenic cooling system, which makes HTS equipment cooled lower than critical temperature, is one of crucial components. In this article, cryogenic cooling system for HTS application, mainly cable, is reviewed. Cryogenic cooling system can be categorized into conduction cooling system and immersion cooling system. In practical HTS power application area, immersion cooling system with sub-cooled liquid nitrogen is preferred. The immersion cooling system is besides grouped into open cycle system and closed cycle system. Turbo-Brayton refrigerator is a key component for closed cycle system. Those two cooling systems are focused in this article. And, each design and component of the cooling system is explained.

  6. Revisiting the Cooling Flow Problem in Galaxies, Groups, and Clusters of Galaxies

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonald, M.; Gaspari, M.; McNamara, B. R.; Tremblay, G. R.

    2018-05-01

    We present a study of 107 galaxies, groups, and clusters spanning ∼3 orders of magnitude in mass, ∼5 orders of magnitude in central galaxy star formation rate (SFR), ∼4 orders of magnitude in the classical cooling rate ({\\dot{M}}cool}\\equiv {M}gas}(rsample, we measure the ICM cooling rate, {\\dot{M}}cool}, using archival Chandra X-ray data and acquire the SFR and systematic uncertainty in the SFR by combining over 330 estimates from dozens of literature sources. With these data, we estimate the efficiency with which the ICM cools and forms stars, finding {ε }cool}\\equiv {SFR}/{\\dot{M}}cool}=1.4 % +/- 0.4% for systems with {\\dot{M}}cool}> 30 M ⊙ yr‑1. For these systems, we measure a slope in the SFR–{\\dot{M}}cool} relation greater than unity, suggesting that the systems with the strongest cool cores are also cooling more efficiently. We propose that this may be related to, on average, higher black hole accretion rates in the strongest cool cores, which could influence the total amount (saturating near the Eddington rate) and dominant mode (mechanical versus radiative) of feedback. For systems with {\\dot{M}}cool}< 30 M ⊙ yr‑1, we find that the SFR and {\\dot{M}}cool} are uncorrelated and show that this is consistent with star formation being fueled at a low (but dominant) level by recycled ISM gas in these systems. We find an intrinsic log-normal scatter in SFR at a fixed {\\dot{M}}cool} of 0.52 ± 0.06 dex (1σ rms), suggesting that cooling is tightly self-regulated over very long timescales but can vary dramatically on short timescales. There is weak evidence that this scatter may be related to the feedback mechanism, with the scatter being minimized (∼0.4 dex) for systems for which the mechanical feedback power is within a factor of two of the cooling luminosity.

  7. Asbestos in cooling-tower waters. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewis, B.A.G.

    1979-03-01

    Water discharges from cooling towers constructed with asbestos fill were found to contain chrysotile--asbestos fibers at concentrations as high as 10 8 fibers/liter. The major source of these fibers, appears to be the components of the towers rather than the air drawn through the towers or the makeup water taken into the towers. Suggested mechanisms for the release of chrysotile fibers from cooling-tower fill include freeze-thaw cycles and dissolution of the cement due to acidic components of the circulating water. Ash- or other material-settling ponds were found to reduce asbestos-fiber concentrations in cooling-tower effluent. The literature reviewed did not support the case for a causal relationship between adverse human health effects and drinking water containing on the order of 10 6 chrysotile--asbestos fibers/liter; for this and other reasons, it is not presently suggested that the use of asbestos fill be discontinued. However, caution and surveillance are dictated by the uncertainties in the epidemiological studies, the absence of evidence for a safe threshold concentration in water, and the conclusive evidence for adverse effects from occupational exposure. It is recommended that monitoring programs be carried out at sites where asbestos fill is used; data from such programs can be used to determine whether any mitigative measures should be taken. On the basis of estimates made in this study, monitoring for asbestos in drift from cooling towers does not appear to be warranted

  8. Structure and oxygen incorporation in low pressure sputtered YBCO films

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaudhary, S.; Pandya, D. K.; Kashyap, S. C.

    2002-01-01

    Thin films of YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7- δ (YBCO) have been successfully grown by reactive RF-magnetron sputtering technique at low pressure. The oxygen partial pressure of 0.95 mTorr, a total pressure (argon and oxygen) of 1.9 mTorr, and a substrate temperature of 775 grad C resulted in good quality films with T C (R=0) = 85.3 K and J Cmag (4.2 K) ≅ 2x10 7 A/cm 2 . The incorporation of oxygen in the as-grown films has been controlled by using different ambient - oxygen, air or argon during in-situ cooling. The superconducting behaviour of the films was studied using resistance-temperature and low field ac-susceptibility measurements and correlated with their structure. All the films exhibited metallic conduction in the normal state. The oxygen- and air- cooled films were superconducting, possessing the usual orthorhombic structure. The argon-cooled films were non-superconducting possessing the tetragonal structure, thus implying that the structure of the film during deposition is tetragonal which transforms to either of the oxygen rich orthorhombic-I or -II phases depending upon the oxygen/air ambient. The 'δ' values of 0.14, 0.32 and 0.70 and higher 'c'-parameters of 1.1785, 1.180 and 1.183 nm have been obtained for oxygen, air and argon cooled films respectively. (Authors)

  9. On the uncertainty principle. V

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Halpern, O.

    1976-01-01

    The treatment of ideal experiments connected with the uncertainty principle is continued. The author analyzes successively measurements of momentum and position, and discusses the common reason why the results in all cases differ from the conventional ones. A similar difference exists for the measurement of field strengths. The interpretation given by Weizsaecker, who tried to interpret Bohr's complementarity principle by introducing a multi-valued logic is analyzed. The treatment of the uncertainty principle ΔE Δt is deferred to a later paper as is the interpretation of the method of variation of constants. Every ideal experiment discussed shows various lower limits for the value of the uncertainty product which limits depend on the experimental arrangement and are always (considerably) larger than h. (Auth.)

  10. Decommissioning Funding: Ethics, Implementation, Uncertainties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This status report on decommissioning funding: ethics, implementation, uncertainties is based on a review of recent literature and materials presented at NEA meetings in 2003 and 2004, and particularly at a topical session organised in November 2004 on funding issues associated with the decommissioning of nuclear power facilities. The report also draws on the experience of the NEA Working Party on Decommissioning and Dismantling (WPDD). This report offers, in a concise form, an overview of relevant considerations on decommissioning funding mechanisms with regard to ethics, implementation and uncertainties. Underlying ethical principles found in international agreements are identified, and factors influencing the accumulation and management of funds for decommissioning nuclear facilities are discussed together with the main sources of uncertainties of funding systems

  11. Correlated uncertainties in integral data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCracken, A.K.

    1978-01-01

    The use of correlated uncertainties in calculational data is shown in cases investigated to lead to a reduction in the uncertainty of calculated quantities of importance to reactor design. It is stressed however that such reductions are likely to be important in a minority of cases of practical interest. The effect of uncertainties in detector cross-sections is considered and is seen to be, in some cases, of equal importance to that in the data used in calculations. Numerical investigations have been limited by the sparse information available on data correlations; some comparisons made of these data reveal quite large inconsistencies for both detector cross-sections and cross-section of interest for reactor calculations

  12. Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analyses Plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simpson, J.C.; Ramsdell, J.V. Jr.

    1993-04-01

    Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction (HEDR) Project staff are developing mathematical models to be used to estimate the radiation dose that individuals may have received as a result of emissions since 1944 from the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site near Richland, Washington. An uncertainty and sensitivity analyses plan is essential to understand and interpret the predictions from these mathematical models. This is especially true in the case of the HEDR models where the values of many parameters are unknown. This plan gives a thorough documentation of the uncertainty and hierarchical sensitivity analysis methods recommended for use on all HEDR mathematical models. The documentation includes both technical definitions and examples. In addition, an extensive demonstration of the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis process is provided using actual results from the Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Integrated Codes (HEDRIC). This demonstration shows how the approaches used in the recommended plan can be adapted for all dose predictions in the HEDR Project

  13. A three-dimensional mathematical model to predict air-cooling flow and temperature distribution of wire loops in the Stelmor air-cooling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Lingxiang; Wang, Bo; Feng, Shuai; Yang, Zhiliang; Yu, Yaowei; Peng, Wangjun; Zhang, Jieyu

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A 3-dimentioanl mathematical models for complex wire loops was set up in Stelmor. • The air flow field in the cooling process was simulated. • The convective heat transfer coefficient was simulated coupled with air flow field. • The temperature distribution with distances was predicted. - Abstract: Controlling the forced air cooling conditions in the Stelmor conveyor line is important for improving the microstructure and mechanical properties of steel wire rods. A three-dimensional mathematical model incorporating the turbulent flow of the cooling air and heat transfer of the wire rods was developed to predict the cooling process in the Stelmor air-cooling line of wire rolling mills. The distribution of cooling air from the plenum chamber and the forced convective heat transfer coefficient for the wire loops were simulated at the different locations over the conveyor. The temperature profiles and cooling curves of the wire loops in Stelmor conveyor lines were also calculated by considering the convective heat transfer, radiative heat transfer as well as the latent heat during transformation. The calculated temperature results using this model agreed well with the available measured results in the industrial tests. Thus, it was demonstrated that this model can be useful for studying the air-cooling process and predicting the temperature profile and microstructure evolution of the wire rods.

  14. Radiative cooling of relativistic electron beams

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Zhirong [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)

    1998-05-01

    Modern high-energy particle accelerators and synchrotron light sources demand smaller and smaller beam emittances in order to achieve higher luminosity or better brightness. For light particles such as electrons and positrons, radiation damping is a natural and effective way to obtain low emittance beams. However, the quantum aspect of radiation introduces random noise into the damped beams, yielding equilibrium emittances which depend upon the design of a specific machine. In this dissertation, the author attempts to make a complete analysis of the process of radiation damping and quantum excitation in various accelerator systems, such as bending magnets, focusing channels and laser fields. Because radiation is formed over a finite time and emitted in quanta of discrete energies, he invokes the quantum mechanical approach whenever the quasiclassical picture of radiation is insufficient. He shows that radiation damping in a focusing system is fundamentally different from that in a bending system. Quantum excitation to the transverse dimensions is absent in a straight, continuous focusing channel, and is exponentially suppressed in a focusing-dominated ring. Thus, the transverse normalized emittances in such systems can in principle be damped to the Compton wavelength of the electron, limited only by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. In addition, he investigates methods of rapid damping such as radiative laser cooling. He proposes a laser-electron storage ring (LESR) where the electron beam in a compact storage ring repetitively interacts with an intense laser pulse stored in an optical resonator. The laser-electron interaction gives rise to rapid cooling of electron beams and can be used to overcome the space charge effects encountered in a medium energy circular machine. Applications to the designs of low emittance damping rings and compact x-ray sources are also explored.

  15. Radiative cooling of relativistic electron beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Z.

    1998-05-01

    Modern high-energy particle accelerators and synchrotron light sources demand smaller and smaller beam emittances in order to achieve higher luminosity or better brightness. For light particles such as electrons and positrons, radiation damping is a natural and effective way to obtain low emittance beams. However, the quantum aspect of radiation introduces random noise into the damped beams, yielding equilibrium emittances which depend upon the design of a specific machine. In this dissertation, the author attempts to make a complete analysis of the process of radiation damping and quantum excitation in various accelerator systems, such as bending magnets, focusing channels and laser fields. Because radiation is formed over a finite time and emitted in quanta of discrete energies, he invokes the quantum mechanical approach whenever the quasiclassical picture of radiation is insufficient. He shows that radiation damping in a focusing system is fundamentally different from that in a bending system. Quantum excitation to the transverse dimensions is absent in a straight, continuous focusing channel, and is exponentially suppressed in a focusing-dominated ring. Thus, the transverse normalized emittances in such systems can in principle be damped to the Compton wavelength of the electron, limited only by the Heisenberg uncertainty principle. In addition, he investigates methods of rapid damping such as radiative laser cooling. He proposes a laser-electron storage ring (LESR) where the electron beam in a compact storage ring repetitively interacts with an intense laser pulse stored in an optical resonator. The laser-electron interaction gives rise to rapid cooling of electron beams and can be used to overcome the space charge effects encountered in a medium energy circular machine. Applications to the designs of low emittance damping rings and compact x-ray sources are also explored

  16. Summary of existing uncertainty methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glaeser, Horst

    2013-01-01

    A summary of existing and most used uncertainty methods is presented, and the main features are compared. One of these methods is the order statistics method based on Wilks' formula. It is applied in safety research as well as in licensing. This method has been first proposed by GRS for use in deterministic safety analysis, and is now used by many organisations world-wide. Its advantage is that the number of potential uncertain input and output parameters is not limited to a small number. Such a limitation was necessary for the first demonstration of the Code Scaling Applicability Uncertainty Method (CSAU) by the United States Regulatory Commission (USNRC). They did not apply Wilks' formula in their statistical method propagating input uncertainties to obtain the uncertainty of a single output variable, like peak cladding temperature. A Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) was set up in order to limit the number of uncertain input parameters, and consequently, the number of calculations to be performed. Another purpose of such a PIRT process is to identify the most important physical phenomena which a computer code should be suitable to calculate. The validation of the code should be focused on the identified phenomena. Response surfaces are used in some applications replacing the computer code for performing a high number of calculations. The second well known uncertainty method is the Uncertainty Methodology Based on Accuracy Extrapolation (UMAE) and the follow-up method 'Code with the Capability of Internal Assessment of Uncertainty (CIAU)' developed by the University Pisa. Unlike the statistical approaches, the CIAU does compare experimental data with calculation results. It does not consider uncertain input parameters. Therefore, the CIAU is highly dependent on the experimental database. The accuracy gained from the comparison between experimental data and calculated results are extrapolated to obtain the uncertainty of the system code predictions

  17. Uncertainty analysis in safety assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lemos, Francisco Luiz de [Centro de Desenvolvimento da Tecnologia Nuclear (CDTN), Belo Horizonte, MG (Brazil); Sullivan, Terry [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States)

    1997-12-31

    Nuclear waste disposal is a very complex subject which requires the study of many different fields of science, like hydro geology, meteorology, geochemistry, etc. In addition, the waste disposal facilities are designed to last for a very long period of time. Both of these conditions make safety assessment projections filled with uncertainty. This paper addresses approaches for treatment of uncertainties in the safety assessment modeling due to the variability of data and some current approaches used to deal with this problem. (author) 13 refs.; e-mail: lemos at bnl.gov; sulliva1 at bnl.gov

  18. Awe, uncertainty, and agency detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valdesolo, Piercarlo; Graham, Jesse

    2014-01-01

    Across five studies, we found that awe increases both supernatural belief (Studies 1, 2, and 5) and intentional-pattern perception (Studies 3 and 4)-two phenomena that have been linked to agency detection, or the tendency to interpret events as the consequence of intentional and purpose-driven agents. Effects were both directly and conceptually replicated, and mediational analyses revealed that these effects were driven by the influence of awe on tolerance for uncertainty. Experiences of awe decreased tolerance for uncertainty, which, in turn, increased the tendency to believe in nonhuman agents and to perceive human agency in random events.

  19. Emergency cooling system for a liquid metal cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murata, Ryoichi; Fujiwara, Toshikatsu.

    1980-01-01

    Purpose: To suitably cool liquid metal as coolant in emergency in a liquid metal cooled reactor by providing a detector for the pressure loss of the liquid metal passing through a cooling device in a loop in which the liquid metal is flowed and communicating the detector with a coolant flow regulator. Constitution: A nuclear reactor is stopped in nuclear reaction by control element or the like in emergency. If decay heat is continuously generated for a while and secondary coolant is insufficiently cooled with water or steam flowed through a steam and water loop, a cooler is started. That is, low temperature air is supplied by a blower through an inlet damper to the cooler to cool the secondary coolant flowed into the cooler through a bypass pipe so as to finally safely stop an entire plant. Since the liquid metal is altered in its physical properties by the temperature at this time, it is detected to regulate the opening of the valve of the damper according to the detected value. (Sekiya, K.)

  20. Linear Programming Problems for Generalized Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thipwiwatpotjana, Phantipa

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainty occurs when there is more than one realization that can represent an information. This dissertation concerns merely discrete realizations of an uncertainty. Different interpretations of an uncertainty and their relationships are addressed when the uncertainty is not a probability of each realization. A well known model that can handle…