WorldWideScience

Sample records for complex out-of-africa scenario

  1. Early modern human diversity suggests subdivided population structure and a complex out-of-Africa scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunz, Philipp; Bookstein, Fred L; Mitteroecker, Philipp; Stadlmayr, Andrea; Seidler, Horst; Weber, Gerhard W

    2009-04-14

    The interpretation of genetic evidence regarding modern human origins depends, among other things, on assessments of the structure and the variation of ancient populations. Because we lack genetic data from the time when the first anatomically modern humans appeared, between 200,000 and 60,000 years ago, instead we exploit the phenotype of neurocranial geometry to compare the variation in early modern human fossils with that in other groups of fossil Homo and recent modern humans. Variation is assessed as the mean-squared Procrustes distance from the group average shape in a representation based on several hundred neurocranial landmarks and semilandmarks. We find that the early modern group has more shape variation than any other group in our sample, which covers 1.8 million years, and that they are morphologically similar to recent modern humans of diverse geographically dispersed populations but not to archaic groups. Of the currently competing models of modern human origins, some are inconsistent with these findings. Rather than a single out-of-Africa dispersal scenario, we suggest that early modern humans were already divided into different populations in Pleistocene Africa, after which there followed a complex migration pattern. Our conclusions bear implications for the inference of ancient human demography from genetic models and emphasize the importance of focusing research on those early modern humans, in particular, in Africa.

  2. Rethinking the dispersal of Homo sapiens out of Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groucutt, Huw S; Petraglia, Michael D; Bailey, Geoff; Scerri, Eleanor M L; Parton, Ash; Clark-Balzan, Laine; Jennings, Richard P; Lewis, Laura; Blinkhorn, James; Drake, Nick A; Breeze, Paul S; Inglis, Robyn H; Devès, Maud H; Meredith-Williams, Matthew; Boivin, Nicole; Thomas, Mark G; Scally, Aylwyn

    2015-01-01

    Current fossil, genetic, and archeological data indicate that Homo sapiens originated in Africa in the late Middle Pleistocene. By the end of the Late Pleistocene, our species was distributed across every continent except Antarctica, setting the foundations for the subsequent demographic and cultural changes of the Holocene. The intervening processes remain intensely debated and a key theme in hominin evolutionary studies. We review archeological, fossil, environmental, and genetic data to evaluate the current state of knowledge on the dispersal of Homo sapiens out of Africa. The emerging picture of the dispersal process suggests dynamic behavioral variability, complex interactions between populations, and an intricate genetic and cultural legacy. This evolutionary and historical complexity challenges simple narratives and suggests that hybrid models and the testing of explicit hypotheses are required to understand the expansion of Homo sapiens into Eurasia. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Testing modern human out-of-Africa dispersal models and implications for modern human origins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes-Centeno, Hugo; Hubbe, Mark; Hanihara, Tsunehiko; Stringer, Chris; Harvati, Katerina

    2015-10-01

    The modern human expansion process out of Africa has important implications for understanding the genetic and phenotypic structure of extant populations. While intensely debated, the primary hypotheses focus on either a single dispersal or multiple dispersals out of the continent. Here, we use the human fossil record from Africa and the Levant, as well as an exceptionally large dataset of Holocene human crania sampled from Asia, to model ancestor-descendant relationships along hypothetical dispersal routes. We test the spatial and temporal predictions of competing out-of-Africa models by assessing the correlation of geographical distances between populations and measures of population differentiation derived from quantitative cranial phenotype data. Our results support a model in which extant Australo-Melanesians are descendants of an initial dispersal out of Africa by early anatomically modern humans, while all other populations are descendants of a later migration wave. Our results have implications for understanding the complexity of modern human origins and diversity.

  4. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian G. Cullis

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length- and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  5. Simulating geometrically complex blast scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ian G. CULLIS; Nikos NIKIFORAKIS; Peter FRANKL; Philip BLAKELY; Paul BENNETT; Paul GREENWOOD

    2016-01-01

    The effects of blast waves generated by energetic and non-energetic sources are of continuing interest to the ballistics research community. Modern conflicts are increasingly characterised by asymmetric urban warfare, with improvised explosive devices (IEDs) often playing a dominant role on the one hand and an armed forces requirement for minimal collateral effects from their weapons on the other. These problems are characterised by disparate length-and time-scales and may also be governed by complex physics. There is thus an increasing need to be able to rapidly assess and accurately predict the effects of energetic blast in topologically complex scenarios. To this end, this paper presents a new QinetiQ-developed advanced computational package called EAGLE-Blast, which is capable of accurately resolving the generation, propagation and interaction of blast waves around geometrically complex shapes such as vehicles and buildings. After a brief description of the numerical methodology, various blast scenario simulations are described and the results compared with experimental data to demonstrate the validation of the scheme and its ability to describe these complex scenarios accurately and efficiently. The paper concludes with a brief discussion on the use of the code in supporting the development of algorithms for fast running engineering models.

  6. Human population dispersal "Out of Africa" estimated from linkage disequilibrium and allele frequencies of SNPs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McEvoy, Brian P; Powell, Joseph E; Goddard, Michael E; Visscher, Peter M

    2011-06-01

    Genetic and fossil evidence supports a single, recent (modern Homo sapiens in Africa, followed by later population divergence and dispersal across the globe (the "Out of Africa" model). However, there is less agreement on the exact nature of this migration event and dispersal of populations relative to one another. We use the empirically observed genetic correlation structure (or linkage disequilibrium) between 242,000 genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 17 global populations to reconstruct two key parameters of human evolution: effective population size (N(e)) and population divergence times (T). A linkage disequilibrium (LD)-based approach allows changes in human population size to be traced over time and reveals a substantial reduction in N(e) accompanying the "Out of Africa" exodus as well as the dramatic re-expansion of non-Africans as they spread across the globe. Secondly, two parallel estimates of population divergence times provide clear evidence of population dispersal patterns "Out of Africa" and subsequent dispersal of proto-European and proto-East Asian populations. Estimates of divergence times between European-African and East Asian-African populations are inconsistent with its simplest manifestation: a single dispersal from the continent followed by a split into Western and Eastern Eurasian branches. Rather, population divergence times are consistent with substantial ancient gene flow to the proto-European population after its divergence with proto-East Asians, suggesting distinct, early dispersals of modern H. sapiens from Africa. We use simulated genetic polymorphism data to demonstrate the validity of our conclusions against alternative population demographic scenarios.

  7. Human Dispersal Out of Africa: A Lasting Debate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López, Saioa; van Dorp, Lucy; Hellenthal, Garrett

    2015-01-01

    Unraveling the first migrations of anatomically modern humans out of Africa has invoked great interest among researchers from a wide range of disciplines. Available fossil, archeological, and climatic data offer many hypotheses, and as such genetics, with the advent of genome-wide genotyping and sequencing techniques and an increase in the availability of ancient samples, offers another important tool for testing theories relating to our own history. In this review, we report the ongoing debates regarding how and when our ancestors left Africa, how many waves of dispersal there were and what geographical routes were taken. We explore the validity of each, using current genetic literature coupled with some of the key archeological findings.

  8. The Colonial Pygmalion: Unsettling Dinesen in Out of Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irlam, Shaun

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the atavistic and feudal historical fantasies that structure Isak Dinesen’s 1937 memoir, Out of Africa. It analyses the imagery and symbolic logic of the memoir in conjunction with Dinesen’s letters from Africa in order to examine how Dinesen derives an idiom to speak of Africa that synthesizes the social structures of European feudalism, the discourse of the noble savage and the aesthetics of the sublime. The paper seeks to unpack the conundrum that fashions a modern, emancipated female subjectivity from the anachronistic paradigm of feudalism and within the framework of imperial domination and colonial occupation. The paper explores how Dinesen’s feudal idiom extends the genre of European pastoral to the colonial milieu and places it in the service of a larger search for a discourse of legitimacy. I argue that this is an abiding preoccupation of colonial literature. I analyze in detail the specular logic through which the narrator confronts Africa as a space that alternately panders to or challenges the psycho-political narcissism of the settler. Dinesen’s memoir reveals the myriad operations of the narcissistic structure through which the narrator strives to fill the copula of the question, “What is Africa to you or you to Africa?”Este trabajo explora las fantasías históricas de carácter atávico y feudal que vertebran las memorias de Isak Dinesen en Out of Africa (1937. Explora el imaginario y la lógica del simbolismo en las memorias junto con las cartas escritas por Dinesen desde África para analizar cómo Dinesen construyó todo un lenguaje para hablar de África que sintetiza las estructuras sociales del feudalismo europeo, el discurso del buen salvaje y la estética de lo sublime. El trabajo intenta explicar la manera rebuscada por medio de la cual se construye la subjetividad de la mujer moderna y emancipada desde el paradigma anacrónico del feudalismo y dentro del marco de la dominación imperial y

  9. Dispersion scenarios over complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thykier-Nielsen, S.; Mikkelsen, T.; Moreno, J.

    1993-01-01

    A presentation of preliminary results from a real-time simulation of full-scale dispersion experiments carried out over complex terrain in Northern Spain is given. Actual wind and turbulence measurements as observed during the experiments were analysed and used as input data for a series of simul......A presentation of preliminary results from a real-time simulation of full-scale dispersion experiments carried out over complex terrain in Northern Spain is given. Actual wind and turbulence measurements as observed during the experiments were analysed and used as input data for a series...... are suitable for subsequent comparison with observed mean dispersion data when they become available....

  10. Dispersion scenarios over complex terrain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thykier-Nielsen, S.; Mikkelsen, T.; Moreno, J.

    1993-01-01

    A presentation of preliminary results from a real-time simulation of full-scale dispersion experiments carried out over complex terrain in Northern Spain is given. Actual wind and turbulence measurements as observed during the experiments were analysed and used as input data for a series of simul......A presentation of preliminary results from a real-time simulation of full-scale dispersion experiments carried out over complex terrain in Northern Spain is given. Actual wind and turbulence measurements as observed during the experiments were analysed and used as input data for a series...

  11. Out of Africa: the Solarisation of the Moon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sims, Lionel

    2015-05-01

    The findings of archaeoastronomy do not fit the traditional theory of prehistory. A new and more recent archaeological model offers possible convergence between the two disciplines if elaborated with the anthropology of the shift from hunting to pastoralism. This paper tests the models with the archaeological evidence of the Avebury monument complex in Wiltshire, England. Whereas the excavator of Avebury, a proponent of the traditional model, could only find paradox and anomalies in his data, this paper suggests that all are annulled when using the second model of cattle owning solarising pastoralists appropriating and undermining the hunters' lunar-scheduled rituals which ultimately derive from our African ancestors.

  12. Understanding of Out of Africa in the Direction of Cross-cultural Perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何羽晴

    2015-01-01

    Out of Africa is a memoir by the Danish female author Isak Dinesen.In this film,she presents that Africa is a pastoral landscape in which men exist in a truer form than they do in Europe.Without modernization,industry,and cities,Africa exists as a land where people lives close to nature.By analyzing the cross-cultural differences between the races,we could reexamine Out of Africa from the cross-cultural perspective,explore and get in touch with Dinesen’s inner self.

  13. Understanding of Out of Africa in the Direction of Cross-cultural Perspective

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何羽晴

    2015-01-01

    Out of Africa is a memoir by the Danish female author Isak Dinesen.In this film,she presents that Africa is a pastoral landscape in which men exist in a truer form than they do in Europe.Without modernization,industry,and cities,Africa exists as a land where people lives close to nature.By analyzing the cross-cultural differences between the races,we could reexamine Out of Africa fromthe cross-cultural perspective,explore and get in touch with Dinesen’s inner self.

  14. Out of Africa: new hypotheses and evidence for the dispersal of Homo sapiens along the Indian Ocean rim.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petraglia, Michael D; Haslam, Michael; Fuller, Dorian Q; Boivin, Nicole; Clarkson, Chris

    2010-06-01

    The dispersal of Homo sapiens out of Africa is a significant topic in human evolutionary studies. Most investigators agree that our species arose in Africa and subsequently spread out to occupy much of Eurasia. Researchers have argued that populations expanded along the Indian Ocean rim at ca 60,000 years ago during a single rapid dispersal event, probably employing a coastal route towards Australasia. Archaeologists have been relatively silent about the movement and expansion of human populations in terrestrial environments along the Indian Ocean rim, although it is clear that Homo sapiens reached Australia by ca 45,000 years ago. Here, we synthesize and document current genetic and archaeological evidence from two major landmasses, the Arabian peninsula and the Indian subcontinent, regions that have been underplayed in the story of out of Africa dispersals. We suggest that modern humans were present in Arabia and South Asia earlier than currently believed, and probably coincident with the presence of Homo sapiens in the Levant between ca 130 and 70,000 years ago. We show that climatic and environmental fluctuations during the Late Pleistocene would have had significant demographic effects on Arabian and South Asian populations, though indigenous populations would have responded in different ways. Based on a review of the current genetic, archaeological and environmental data, we indicate that demographic patterns in Arabia and South Asia are more interesting and complex than surmised to date.

  15. Late Pleistocene shifts in Northeast African hydroclimate and the Out-of-Africa migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, J. E.; deMenocal, P. B.; Zander, P. D.

    2016-12-01

    The major "Out-of-Africa" migration of modern humans is hypothesized to have occurred ca. 60,000-80,000 yr BP, with populations crossing the Red Sea via either the Bab al Mandeb strait or the Sinai Peninsula. The role of climatic and environmental pressures in driving the migration has long been a topic of debate. While paleoclimate data from southern East Africa generally show evidence for climatic instability during the Out-Of-Africa interval, no data has been available from northeast Africa, the region from which haplogroup L3, the most common parental lineage for humans outside Africa, dispersed. Here we present leaf wax hydrogen isotope data measured in a marine sediment core that provide a clear picture of how Northeast African climate has varied during the past 200,000 years. The data show that wet periods are generally in-phase with Northern hemisphere summer insolation, with MIS 7a emerging as the wettest "African Humid Period" of the last 200 ka. Interestingly, Stages 5e, 5c, and 5a are comparably wet. Last glacial aridity does not begin in earnest until ca. 75 ka, with an abrupt drop out of mesic Stage 5 conditions followed by a descent into very dry conditions during Stage 4. The timing of this wet-to-dry transition compares well with the estimated timing of Out-of-Africa migration from genetic data, suggesting that climatic deterioration could have been an impetus for early humans to leave northeast Africa.

  16. Demographic Inference Using Spectral Methods on SNP Data, with an Analysis of the Human Out-of-Africa Expansion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukić, Sergio; Hey, Jody

    2012-01-01

    We present an implementation of a recently introduced method for estimating the allele-frequency spectrum under the diffusion approximation. For single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) frequency data from multiple populations, the method computes numerical solutions to the allele-frequency spectrum (AFS) under a complex model that includes population splitting events, migration, population expansion, and admixture. The solution to the diffusion partial differential equation (PDE) that mimics the evolutionary process is found by means of truncated polynomial expansions. In the absence of gene flow, our computation of frequency spectra yields exact results. The results are compared to those that use a finite-difference method and to forward diffusion simulations. In general, all the methods yield comparable results, although the polynomial-based approach is the most accurate in the weak-migration limit. Also, the economical use of memory attained by the polynomial expansions makes the study of models with four populations possible for the first time. The method was applied to a four-population model of the human expansion out of Africa and the peopling of the Americas, using the Environmental Genome Project (EGP) SNP database. Although our confidence intervals largely overlapped previous analyses of these data, some were significantly different. In particular, estimates of migration among African, European, and Asian populations were considerably lower than those in a previous study and the estimated time of migration out of Africa was earlier. The estimated time of founding of a human population outside of Africa was 52,000 years (95% confidence interval: 36,000–80,800 years). PMID:22865734

  17. The Expansion of mtDNA Haplogroup L3 within and out of Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soares, Pedro; Alshamali, Farida; Pereira, Joana B; Fernandes, Verónica; Silva, Nuno M; Afonso, Carla; Costa, Marta D; Musilová, Eliska; Macaulay, Vincent; Richards, Martin B; Cerny, Viktor; Pereira, Luísa

    2012-03-01

    Although fossil remains show that anatomically modern humans dispersed out of Africa into the Near East ∼100 to 130 ka, genetic evidence from extant populations has suggested that non-Africans descend primarily from a single successful later migration. Within the human mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) tree, haplogroup L3 encompasses not only many sub-Saharan Africans but also all ancient non-African lineages, and its age therefore provides an upper bound for the dispersal out of Africa. An analysis of 369 complete African L3 sequences places this maximum at ∼70 ka, virtually ruling out a successful exit before 74 ka, the date of the Toba volcanic supereruption in Sumatra. The similarity of the age of L3 to its two non-African daughter haplogroups, M and N, suggests that the same process was likely responsible for both the L3 expansion in Eastern Africa and the dispersal of a small group of modern humans out of Africa to settle the rest of the world. The timing of the expansion of L3 suggests a link to improved climatic conditions after ∼70 ka in Eastern and Central Africa rather than to symbolically mediated behavior, which evidently arose considerably earlier. The L3 mtDNA pool within Africa suggests a migration from Eastern Africa to Central Africa ∼60 to 35 ka and major migrations in the immediate postglacial again linked to climate. The largest population size increase seen in the L3 data is 3-4 ka in Central Africa, corresponding to Bantu expansions, leading diverse L3 lineages to spread into Eastern and Southern Africa in the last 3-2 ka.

  18. Geometric signature of complex synchronisation scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Feldhoff, Jan F; Donges, Jonathan F; Marwan, Norbert; Kurths, Jürgen

    2013-01-01

    Synchronisation between coupled oscillatory systems is a common phenomenon in many natural as well as technical systems. Varying the strength of coupling often leads to qualitative changes in the complex dynamics of the mutually coupled systems including different types of synchronisation such as phase, lag, generalised, or even complete synchronisation. Here, we study the geometric signatures of coupling along with the onset of generalised synchronisation between two coupled chaotic oscillators by mapping the systems' individual as well as joint recurrences in phase space to a complex network. For a paradigmatic continuous-time model system, the transitivity properties of the resulting joint recurrence networks display distinct variations associated with changes in the structural similarity between different parts of the considered trajectories. They therefore provide a useful indicator for the emergence of generalised synchronisation. This paper is dedicated to the 25th anniversary of the introduction of re...

  19. The southern route "out of Africa": evidence for an early expansion of modern humans into Arabia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armitage, Simon J; Jasim, Sabah A; Marks, Anthony E; Parker, Adrian G; Usik, Vitaly I; Uerpmann, Hans-Peter

    2011-01-28

    The timing of the dispersal of anatomically modern humans (AMH) out of Africa is a fundamental question in human evolutionary studies. Existing data suggest a rapid coastal exodus via the Indian Ocean rim around 60,000 years ago. We present evidence from Jebel Faya, United Arab Emirates, demonstrating human presence in eastern Arabia during the last interglacial. The tool kit found at Jebel Faya has affinities to the late Middle Stone Age in northeast Africa, indicating that technological innovation was not necessary to facilitate migration into Arabia. Instead, we propose that low eustatic sea level and increased rainfall during the transition between marine isotope stages 6 and 5 allowed humans to populate Arabia. This evidence implies that AMH may have been present in South Asia before the Toba eruption.

  20. Accelerated genetic drift on chromosome X during the human dispersal out of Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keinan, Alon; Mullikin, James C; Patterson, Nick; Reich, David

    2009-01-01

    Comparisons of chromosome X and the autosomes can illuminate differences in the histories of males and females as well as shed light on the forces of natural selection. We compared the patterns of variation in these parts of the genome using two datasets that we assembled for this study that are both genomic in scale. Three independent analyses show that around the time of the dispersal of modern humans out of Africa, chromosome X experienced much more genetic drift than is expected from the pattern on the autosomes. This is not predicted by known episodes of demographic history, and we found no similar patterns associated with the dispersals into East Asia and Europe. We conclude that a sex-biased process that reduced the female effective population size, or an episode of natural selection unusually affecting chromosome X, was associated with the founding of non-African populations.

  1. The 'Out of Africa' Hypothesis, Human Genetic Diversity, and Comparative Economic Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashraf, Quamrul; Galor, Oded

    2013-01-01

    This research argues that deep-rooted factors, determined tens of thousands of years ago, had a significant effect on the course of economic development from the dawn of human civilization to the contemporary era. It advances and empirically establishes the hypothesis that, in the course of the exodus of Homo sapiens out of Africa, variation in migratory distance from the cradle of humankind to various settlements across the globe affected genetic diversity and has had a long-lasting effect on the pattern of comparative economic development that is not captured by geographical, institutional, and cultural factors. In particular, the level of genetic diversity within a society is found to have a hump-shaped effect on development outcomes in both the pre-colonial and the modern era, reflecting the trade-off between the beneficial and the detrimental effects of diversity on productivity. While the intermediate level of genetic diversity prevalent among Asian and European populations has been conducive for development, the high degree of diversity among African populations and the low degree of diversity among Native American populations have been a detrimental force in the development of these regions. PMID:25506083

  2. Differential susceptibility to hypertension is due to selection during the out-of-Africa expansion.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J Hunter Young

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Hypertension is a leading cause of stroke, heart disease, and kidney failure. The genetic basis of blood pressure variation is largely unknown but is likely to involve genes that influence renal salt handling and arterial vessel tone. Here we argue that susceptibility to hypertension is ancestral and that differential susceptibility to hypertension is due to differential exposure to selection pressures during the out-of-Africa expansion. The most important selection pressure was climate, which produced a latitudinal cline in heat adaptation and, therefore, hypertension susceptibility. Consistent with this hypothesis, we show that ecological variables, such as latitude, temperature, and rainfall, explain worldwide variation in heat adaptation as defined by seven functional alleles in five genes involved in blood pressure regulation. The latitudinal cline in heat adaptation is consistent worldwide and is largely unmatched by latitudinal clines in short tandem repeat markers, control single nucleotide polymorphisms, or non-functional single nucleotide polymorphisms within the five genes. In addition, we show that latitude and one of these alleles, GNB3 (G protein beta3 subunit 825T, account for a major portion of worldwide variation in blood pressure. These results suggest that the current epidemic of hypertension is due to exposures of the modern period interacting with ancestral susceptibility. Modern populations differ in susceptibility to these new exposures, however, such that those from hot environments are more susceptible to hypertension than populations from cold environments. This differential susceptibility is likely due to our history of adaptation to climate.

  3. The Arabian cradle: mitochondrial relicts of the first steps along the southern route out of Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Verónica; Alshamali, Farida; Alves, Marco; Costa, Marta D; Pereira, Joana B; Silva, Nuno M; Cherni, Lotfi; Harich, Nourdin; Cerny, Viktor; Soares, Pedro; Richards, Martin B; Pereira, Luísa

    2012-02-10

    A major unanswered question regarding the dispersal of modern humans around the world concerns the geographical site of the first human steps outside of Africa. The "southern coastal route" model predicts that the early stages of the dispersal took place when people crossed the Red Sea to southern Arabia, but genetic evidence has hitherto been tenuous. We have addressed this question by analyzing the three minor west-Eurasian haplogroups, N1, N2, and X. These lineages branch directly from the first non-African founder node, the root of haplogroup N, and coalesce to the time of the first successful movement of modern humans out of Africa, ∼60 thousand years (ka) ago. We sequenced complete mtDNA genomes from 85 Southwest Asian samples carrying these haplogroups and compared them with a database of 300 European examples. The results show that these minor haplogroups have a relict distribution that suggests an ancient ancestry within the Arabian Peninsula, and they most likely spread from the Gulf Oasis region toward the Near East and Europe during the pluvial period 55-24 ka ago. This pattern suggests that Arabia was indeed the first staging post in the spread of modern humans around the world. Copyright © 2012 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. The Arabian Cradle: Mitochondrial Relicts of the First Steps along the Southern Route out of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Verónica; Alshamali, Farida; Alves, Marco; Costa, Marta D.; Pereira, Joana B.; Silva, Nuno M.; Cherni, Lotfi; Harich, Nourdin; Cerny, Viktor; Soares, Pedro; Richards, Martin B.; Pereira, Luísa

    2012-01-01

    A major unanswered question regarding the dispersal of modern humans around the world concerns the geographical site of the first human steps outside of Africa. The “southern coastal route” model predicts that the early stages of the dispersal took place when people crossed the Red Sea to southern Arabia, but genetic evidence has hitherto been tenuous. We have addressed this question by analyzing the three minor west-Eurasian haplogroups, N1, N2, and X. These lineages branch directly from the first non-African founder node, the root of haplogroup N, and coalesce to the time of the first successful movement of modern humans out of Africa, ∼60 thousand years (ka) ago. We sequenced complete mtDNA genomes from 85 Southwest Asian samples carrying these haplogroups and compared them with a database of 300 European examples. The results show that these minor haplogroups have a relict distribution that suggests an ancient ancestry within the Arabian Peninsula, and they most likely spread from the Gulf Oasis region toward the Near East and Europe during the pluvial period 55–24 ka ago. This pattern suggests that Arabia was indeed the first staging post in the spread of modern humans around the world. PMID:22284828

  5. Out of Africa, but how and when? The case of hamadryas baboons (Papio hamadryas).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopp, Gisela H; Roos, Christian; Butynski, Thomas M; Wildman, Derek E; Alagaili, Abdulaziz N; Groeneveld, Linn F; Zinner, Dietmar

    2014-11-01

    Many species of Arabian mammals are considered to be of Afrotropical origin and for most of them the Red Sea has constituted an obstacle for dispersal since the Miocene-Pliocene transition. There are two possible routes, the 'northern' and the 'southern', for terrestrial mammals (including humans) to move between Africa and Arabia. The 'northern route', crossing the Sinai Peninsula, is confirmed for several taxa by an extensive fossil record, especially from northern Egypt and the Levant, whereas the 'southern route', across the Bab-el-Mandab Strait, which links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden, is more controversial, although post-Pliocene terrestrial crossings of the Red Sea might have been possible during glacial maxima when sea levels were low. Hamadryas baboons (Papio hamadryas) are the only baboon taxon to disperse out of Africa and still inhabit Arabia. In this study, we investigate the origin of Arabian hamadryas baboons using mitochondrial sequence data from 294 samples collected in Arabia and Northeast Africa. Through the analysis of the geographic distribution of genetic diversity, the timing of population expansions, and divergence time estimates combined with palaeoecological data, we test: (i) if Arabian and African hamadryas baboons are genetically distinct; (ii) if Arabian baboons exhibit population substructure; and (iii) when, and via which route, baboons colonized Arabia. Our results suggest that hamadryas baboons colonized Arabia during the Late Pleistocene (130-12 kya [thousands of years ago]) and also moved back to Africa. We reject the hypothesis that hamadryas baboons were introduced to Arabia by humans, because the initial colonization considerably predates the earliest records of human seafaring in this region. Our results strongly suggest that the 'southern route' from Africa to Arabia could have been used by hamadryas baboons during the same time period as proposed for modern humans. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier

  6. The Earliest Hominid Migration out of Africa and Near East Colonization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ron, H.; Levi, S.; Porat, N.

    2001-12-01

    Ma and older hominid colonization along the Levantine Corridor, offering a glimpse at the first journey out of Africa.

  7. Oblique Photogrammetry Supporting 3d Urban Reconstruction of Complex Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toschi, I.; Ramos, M. M.; Nocerino, E.; Menna, F.; Remondino, F.; Moe, K.; Poli, D.; Legat, K.; Fassi, F.

    2017-05-01

    Accurate 3D city models represent an important source of geospatial information to support various "smart city" applications, such as space management, energy assessment, 3D cartography, noise and pollution mapping as well as disaster management. Even though remarkable progress has been made in recent years, there are still many open issues, especially when it comes to the 3D modelling of complex urban scenarios like historical and densely-built city centres featuring narrow streets and non-conventional building shapes. Most approaches introduce strong building priors/constraints on symmetry and roof typology that penalize urban environments having high variations of roof shapes. Furthermore, although oblique photogrammetry is rapidly maturing, the use of slanted views for façade reconstruction is not completely included in the reconstruction pipeline of state-of-the-art software. This paper aims to investigate state-of-the-art methods for 3D building modelling in complex urban scenarios with the support of oblique airborne images. A reconstruction approach based on roof primitives fitting is tested. Oblique imagery is then exploited to support the manual editing of the generated building models. At the same time, mobile mapping data are collected at cm resolution and then integrated with the aerial ones. All approaches are tested on the historical city centre of Bergamo (Italy).

  8. Application of Strength Requirements to Complex Loading Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    England, Scott; Rajulu, Sudhakar

    2016-01-01

    NASA's endeavors in human spaceflight rely on extensive volumes of human-systems integration requirements to ensure mission success. These requirements protect for space hardware accommodation for the full range of potential crewmembers, but cannot cover every possible action and contingency in detail. This study was undertaken in response to questions from various strength requirement users who were unclear how to apply idealized strength requirements that did not map well to the complex loading scenarios that crewmembers would encounter. Three of the most commonly occurring questions from stakeholders were selected to be investigated with human testing and human modeling. Preliminary findings indicate deviation from nominal postures can affect strength requirement compliance positively or negatively, depending on the nature of the deviation. Human modeling offers some avenues for quickly addressing requirement verification questions, but is limited by the fidelity of the model and environment.

  9. A Chargeless Complex Vector Matter Field in Supersymmetric Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. P. Colatto

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We construct and study a formulation of a chargeless complex vector matter field in a supersymmetric framework. To this aim we combine two nochiral scalar superfields in order to take the vector component field to build the chargeless complex vector superpartner where the respective field strength transforms into matter fields by a global U1 gauge symmetry. For the aim of dealing with consistent terms without breaking the global U1 symmetry we imposes a choice to the complex combination revealing a kind of symmetry between the choices and eliminates the extra degrees of freedom which is consistent with the supersymmetry. As the usual case the mass supersymmetric sector contributes as a complement to dynamics of the model. We obtain the equations of motion of the Proca’s type field for the chiral spinor fields and for the scalar field on the mass-shell which show the same mass as expected. This work establishes the first steps to extend the analysis of charged massive vector field in a supersymmetric scenario.

  10. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  11. Scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1996-01-01

    The main purpose of this paper is to give a synthetic presentation of hte well-known scenario method. Different schools and traditions will be shortly presented. In addition guidelines for hte use of this method will be discussed. Finally, applications will also be outlined as well as some critic...

  12. Testing support for the northern and southern dispersal routes out of Africa: an analysis of Levantine and southern Arabian populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vyas, Deven N; Al-Meeri, Ali; Mulligan, Connie J

    2017-09-15

    The Northern Dispersal Route (NDR) and Southern Dispersal Route (SDR) are hypothesized to have been used by modern humans in the dispersal out of Africa. The NDR follows the Nile into Northeast Africa and crosses the Red Sea into the Levant. The SDR emerges from the Horn of Africa and crosses the Bab el-Mandeb into southern Arabia. In this study, we analyze genetic data from populations living along the NDR and SDR to test support for each dispersal route. We genotyped 90 Yemeni samples on the Affymetrix Human Origins array. We analyzed these data with published data from Levantine and other southern Arabian populations as well as 157 comparative populations for a total sample size of >550,000 genetic variants from >2,000 individuals in >160 populations. We calculated outgroup f3 statistics to test how Levantine and southern Arabian populations relate to African populations living along the NDR and SDR and to other non-African populations. We find that Levantine and southern Arabian populations bear similar genetic relationships to both African and non-African populations, thus providing no support for the use of one dispersal route over the other. Our results are consistent with a history of gene flow between the Levant and southern Arabia. Consideration of genetic, archaeological, and paleoclimate data provide a slight edge for the SDR but, ultimately, more data are needed to definitively identify which dispersal route out of Africa was used. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  13. Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joao M. Goncalves

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Personal information is increasingly gathered and used for providing services tailored to user preferences, but the datasets used to provide such functionality can represent serious privacy threats if not appropriately protected. Work in privacy-preserving data publishing targeted privacy guarantees that protect against record re-identification, by making records indistinguishable, or sensitive attribute value disclosure, by introducing diversity or noise in the sensitive values. However, most approaches fail in the high-dimensional case, and the ones that don't introduce a utility cost incompatible with tailored recommendation scenarios. This paper aims at a sensible trade-off between privacy and the benefits of tailored recommendations, in the context of privacy-preserving data publishing. We empirically demonstrate that significant privacy improvements can be achieved at a utility cost compatible with tailored recommendation scenarios, using a simple partition-based sanitization method.

  14. Human evolution out of Africa: the role of refugia and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, J R; Stringer, C B

    2012-03-16

    Although an African origin of the modern human species is generally accepted, the evolutionary processes involved in the speciation, geographical spread, and eventual extinction of archaic humans outside of Africa are much debated. An additional complexity has been the recent evidence of limited interbreeding between modern humans and the Neandertals and Denisovans. Modern human migrations and interactions began during the buildup to the Last Glacial Maximum, starting about 100,000 years ago. By examining the history of other organisms through glacial cycles, valuable models for evolutionary biogeography can be formulated. According to one such model, the adoption of a new refugium by a subgroup of a species may lead to important evolutionary changes.

  15. Numerical GPR Imaging through Directional Antenna Systems in Complex Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comite, Davide; Murgia, Federica; Barbara, Martina; Catapano, Ilaria; Soldovieri, Francesco; Galli, Alessandro

    2017-04-01

    The capability of imaging hidden targets and interfaces in non-accessible and complex scenarios is a topic of increasing interest for several practical applications, such as civil engineering, geophysics, and planetary explorations [1]. In this frame, Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) has been proven as an efficient and reliable technique, also thanks to the development of effective imaging procedures based on linear modeling of the scattering phenomenon, which is usually considered as activated by ideal sources [1],[2]. Actually, such modeling simplifications are rarely verified in typical operative scenarios, when a number of heterogeneous targets can interact each other and with the surrounding environment, producing undesired contributions such as clutter and ghosts targets. From a physical viewpoint, these phenomena are mainly due to multipath contributions at the receiving antenna system, and different solutions have been proposed to mitigate these effects on the final image reconstruction (see, e.g., [2] and references therein). In this work we investigate on the possible improvements achievable when the directional features of the transmitting antenna system are taken into account in the imaging algorithm. Following and extending the recent investigations illustrated in [2] and [3], we consider in particular arrays of antennas, made by arbitrary types of elements, as activating the scattering phenomenon: hence, the effects of neglecting or accounting for the inherent directional radiation of the considered array are investigated as regards the accuracy of the final reconstruction of targets. Taking into account the resolution losses linked to the relevant synthetic aperture, we analyze the possibility of improving the quality of imaging, mitigating the presence of spurious contributions. By implementing a 'synthetic setup' that analyzes the scenarios under test through different electromagnetic CAD tools (mainly CST Microwave Studio and gprMax), it has been

  16. Out of Africa: Phylogeny and biogeography of the widespread genus Acanthodactylus (Reptilia: Lacertidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamar, Karin; Carranza, Salvador; Sindaco, Roberto; Moravec, Jiří; Trape, Jean-François; Meiri, Shai

    2016-10-01

    levels of intraspecific variability, and clear evidence of phylogenetic complexity.

  17. Outcomes 'out of africa': the selection and implementation of outcome measures for palliative care in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Downing Julia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background End-of-life care research across Africa is under-resourced and under-developed. A central issue in research in end-of-life care is the measurement of effects and outcomes of care on patients and families. Little is known about the experiences of health professionals' selection and implementation of outcome measures (OM in clinical care, research, audit, or teaching in Africa. Methods An online survey was undertaken of those using outcome measures across the region, as part of the PRISMA project. A questionnaire addressing the use of OMs was developed for a similar survey in Europe and adapted for Africa. Participants were sampled through the contacts database of APCA. Invitation emails were sent out in January 2010 and reminders in February 2010. Results 168/301 invited contacts (56% from 24 countries responded, with 78 respondents having previously used OM (65% in clinical practice, 12% in research and 23% for both. Main reasons for not using OM were a lack of guidance/training on using and analysing OM, with 49% saying that they would use the tools if this was provided. 40% of those using OM in clinical practice used POS, and 80% used them to assess, evaluate and monitor change. The POS was also the main tool used in research, with the principle criteria for use being validation in Africa, access to the tool and time needed to complete it. Challenges to the use of tools were shortage of time and resources, lack of guidance and training for the professionals, poor health status of patients and complexity of OM. Researchers also have problems analysing OM data. The APCA African POS was the most common version of the POS used, and was reported as a valuable tool for measuring outcomes. Respondents indicated the ideal outcome tool should be short, multi-dimensional and easy to use. Conclusion This was the first survey on professionals' views on OM in Africa. It showed that the APCA African POS was the most frequently OM used

  18. Out of Africa

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Continent shows its stars and future potential in Beijing For a continent that hits the headlines most often for wars and famine, the Olympics offered Africa a chance to make the news for more positive reasons, and its athletes obliged with a host of outstanding achievements.

  19. Scenarios : tools for coping with complexity and future uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perez-Soba, M.; Maas, R.

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  20. Out of Africa: modern human origins special feature: middle and later Pleistocene hominins in Africa and Southwest Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rightmire, G Philip

    2009-09-22

    Approximately 700,000 years ago, Homo erectus in Africa was giving way to populations with larger brains accompanied by structural adjustments to the vault, cranial base, and face. Such early Middle Pleistocene hominins were not anatomically modern. Their skulls display strong supraorbital tori above projecting faces, flattened frontals, and less parietal expansion than is the case for Homo sapiens. Postcranial remains seem also to have archaic features. Subsequently, some groups evolved advanced skeletal morphology, and by ca. 200,000 years ago, individuals more similar to recent humans are present in the African record. These fossils are associated with Middle Stone Age lithic assemblages and, in some cases, Acheulean tools. Crania from Herto in Ethiopia carry defleshing cutmarks and superficial scoring that may be indicative of mortuary practices. Despite these signs of behavioral innovation, neither the Herto hominins, nor others from Late Pleistocene sites such as Klasies River in southern Africa and Skhūl/Qafzeh in Israel, can be matched in living populations. Skulls are quite robust, and it is only after approximately 35,000 years ago that people with more gracile, fully modern morphology make their appearance. Not surprisingly, many questions concerning this evolutionary history have been raised. Attention has centered on systematics of the mid-Pleistocene hominins, their paleobiology, and the timing of dispersals that spread H. sapiens out of Africa and across the Old World. In this report, I discuss structural changes characterizing the skulls from different time periods, possible regional differences in morphology, and the bearing of this evidence on recognizing distinct species.

  1. Phylogenetic characterisation of Taenia tapeworms in spotted hyenas and reconsideration of the "Out of Africa" hypothesis of Taenia in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terefe, Yitagele; Hailemariam, Zerihun; Menkir, Sissay; Nakao, Minoru; Lavikainen, Antti; Haukisalmi, Voitto; Iwaki, Takashi; Okamoto, Munehiro; Ito, Akira

    2014-07-01

    The African origin of hominins suggests that Taenia spp. in African carnivores are evolutionarily related to the human-infecting tapeworms Taenia solium, Taenia saginata and Taenia asiatica. Nevertheless, the hypothesis has not been verified through molecular phylogenetics of Taenia. This study aimed to perform phylogenetic comparisons between Taenia spp. from African hyenas and the congeneric human parasites. During 2010-2013, 233 adult specimens of Taenia spp. were collected from 11 spotted hyenas in Ethiopia. A screening based on short DNA sequences of the cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 gene classified the samples into four mitochondrial lineages designated as I-IV. DNA profiles of nuclear genes for DNA polymerase delta (pold) and phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (pepck) showed that lineages II and III can be assigned as two independent species. Common haplotypes of pold and pepck were frequently found in lineages I and IV, suggesting that they constitute a single species. Morphological observations suggested that lineage II is Taenia crocutae, but the other lineages were morphologically inconsistent with known species, suggesting the involvement of two new species. A phylogenetic tree of Taenia spp. was reconstructed by the maximum likelihood method using all protein-coding genes of their mitochondrial genomes. The tree clearly demonstrated that T. crocutae is sister to T. saginata and T. asiatica, whereas T. solium was confirmed to be sister to the brown bear tapeworm, Taenia arctos. The tree also suggested that T. solium and T. arctos are related to two species of Taenia in hyenas, corresponding to lineages I+IV and III. These results may partially support the African origin of human-infecting Taenia spp., but there remains a possibility that host switching of Taenia to hominins was not confined to Africa. Additional taxa from African carnivores are needed for further testing of the "Out of Africa" hypothesis of Taenia in humans. Copyright © 2014 Australian

  2. A Two-Party Probabilistic Communication Complexity Scenario via Werner States

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUE Peng; LI Chuan-Feng; GUO Guang-Can

    2001-01-01

    We propose a probabilistic two-party communication complexity scenario with a prior Werner state and analyse the communication abilities of quantum correlations (entanglements) and classical correlations. This process can be used as an entanglement monotone of Werner states.

  3. Work effort in the LHC injector complex for the upgrade scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Mikulec, B; Chapochnikova, E; Damerau, H; Gilardoni, S; Goddard, B; Hanke, K; Hay, D; Mataguez, S; Mcfarlane, D

    2014-01-01

    This document describes the work in the PSB, PS and SPS that is required for upgrade scenario 1. It will be shown that the requirements on the hardware work needed for upgrade scenario 1 are identical to the ones of the upgrade scenario 2 [1]. The various activities are detailed as well as their dependencies and an estimate given for the duration of the necessary shutdowns and recommissioning periods with beam. It is mentioned whether some decisions are still to be taken and are related to information to be obtained after LS1. Another important aspect is the evaluation of the risks related to the upgrade interventions and operational complexity, which concern schedule, beam characteristics as well as reliability and overall performance. It has been studied if part of the activities could be spread out over several machine stops, and as conclusion the preferred scenario will be presented.

  4. Freshwater on the route of hominids "out of Africa" during the last interglacial revealed by U-Th in northern Red Sea fossil reefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lazar, B.; Stein, M.; Agnon, A.; Shaked, Y.

    2012-04-01

    The migration of Anatomically Modern Hominids (AMH) "out of Africa" is a fundamental problem in the study of human culture concerning that the route passed through the presently hyperarid deserts surrounding the Red Sea. Here, we outline the evidence for significant presence of freshwater in a well developed phreatic coastal aquifer along the Red Sea shores during the last interglacial period. The fringing coral reefs were tectonically uplifted through the freshwater lens resulting in extensive recrystallization of reef framework from the primary aragonite into calcite. We developed a novel open-system U-Th dating methodology that enabled us estimating two ages for the calcitic reef terrace: 1. The original age of the reef terrace, deposited at ~190 ka BP; and 2. the time of freshwater recrystallization (from the primary aragonite into calcite) at ~140 ka BP. The age of freshwater recrystallization is consistent with other geological lines of evidence placing the time of AMH migration "out of Africa" at the onset of the last interglacial. It is likely therefore that during that time the hyperarid Red Sea area was wetter than today facilitating the migration of AMH to Europe and Asia.

  5. Transitional dispersive scenarios driven by mesoscale flows on complex terrain under strong dry convective conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Palau

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available By experimentation and modelling, this paper analyses the atmospheric dispersion of the SO2 emissions from a power plant on complex terrain under strong convective conditions, describing the main dispersion features as an ensemble of "stationary dispersive scenarios" and reformulating some "classical" dispersive concepts to deal with the systematically monitored summer dispersive scenarios in inland Spain. The results and discussions presented arise from a statistically representative study of the physical processes associated with the multimodal distribution of pollutants aloft and around a 343-m-tall chimney under strong dry convective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. This paper analyses the importance of the identification and physical implications of transitional periods for air quality applications. The indetermination of a transversal plume to the preferred transport direction during these transitional periods implies a small (or null physical significance of the classical definition of horizontal standard deviation of the concentration distribution.

  6. A model based bayesian solution for characterization of complex damage scenarios in aerospace composite structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, H; Leckey, Cara A C; Dick, A; Harvey, G; Dobson, J

    2017-09-05

    Ultrasonic damage detection and characterization is commonly used in nondestructive evaluation (NDE) of aerospace composite components. In recent years there has been an increased development of guided wave based methods. In real materials and structures, these dispersive waves result in complicated behavior in the presence of complex damage scenarios. Model-based characterization methods utilize accurate three dimensional finite element models (FEMs) of guided wave interaction with realistic damage scenarios to aid in defect identification and classification. This work describes an inverse solution for realistic composite damage characterization by comparing the wavenumber-frequency spectra of experimental and simulated ultrasonic inspections. The composite laminate material properties are first verified through a Bayesian solution (Markov chain Monte Carlo), enabling uncertainty quantification surrounding the characterization. A study is undertaken to assess the efficacy of the proposed damage model and comparative metrics between the experimental and simulated output. The FEM is then parameterized with a damage model capable of describing the typical complex damage created by impact events in composites. The damage is characterized through a transdimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo solution, enabling a flexible damage model capable of adapting to the complex damage geometry investigated here. The posterior probability distributions of the individual delamination petals as well as the overall envelope of the damage site are determined. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Sustainable Water Resources Management in a Complex Watershed Under Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuster, J. P.; McPhee, J.

    2007-05-01

    The Aconcagua River Basin in central Chile supplies water for over one million people, high-return agriculture, mining and hydropower industries. The Aconcagua river basin has Mediterranean/semi-arid climate, its hydrologic regime varies along its path from snow- to a rainfall-dominated, and significant stream-aquifer interaction is observed throughout the river path. A complex water market operates in the Aconcagua River Basin, where private owners hold surface and subsurface water rights independently of land ownership and/or intended use. The above yield integrated watershed management critical for the sustainability of basin operations, moreover under conditions of significant precipitation interannual variability and uncertain future climatic scenarios. In this work we propose an integrated hydrologic-operational model for the Aconcagua River in order to evaluate sustainable management scenarios under conditions of climatic uncertainty. The modeling software WEAP (Water Evaluation and Planning System) serves as the platform for decision support, allowing the assessment of diverse scenarios of water use development and hydrologic conditions. The hydrologic component of the adopted model utilizes conceptual functions for describing the relations between different hydrologic variables. The management component relies on economic valuation for characterizing the space of efficient operational policies.

  8. Human origins: Out of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tattersall, Ian

    2009-01-01

    Our species, Homo sapiens, is highly autapomorphic (uniquely derived) among hominids in the structure of its skull and postcranial skeleton. It is also sharply distinguished from other organisms by its unique symbolic mode of cognition. The fossil and archaeological records combine to show fairly clearly that our physical and cognitive attributes both first appeared in Africa, but at different times. Essentially modern bony conformation was established in that continent by the 200–150 Ka range (a dating in good agreement with dates for the origin of H. sapiens derived from modern molecular diversity). The event concerned was apparently short-term because it is essentially unanticipated in the fossil record. In contrast, the first convincing stirrings of symbolic behavior are not currently detectable until (possibly well) after 100 Ka. The radical reorganization of gene expression that underwrote the distinctive physical appearance of H. sapiens was probably also responsible for the neural substrate that permits symbolic cognition. This exaptively acquired potential lay unexploited until it was “discovered” via a cultural stimulus, plausibly the invention of language. Modern humans appear to have definitively exited Africa to populate the rest of the globe only after both their physical and cognitive peculiarities had been acquired within that continent. PMID:19805256

  9. A humid corridor across the Sahara for the migration "Out of Africa" of early modern humans 120,000 years ago

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborne, A. H.; Vance, D.; Rohling, E. J.; Barton, N.; Rogerson, M.; Fello, N.

    2008-12-01

    The climatic history of the Sahara in the Quaternary is likely to have been a key control on the history of human migrations out of Africa. For example, it is widely accepted that modern humans originated in sub- Saharan Africa around 150-200 thousand years ago (ka), but their route of dispersal across the currently hyper-arid Sahara remains controversial. Given that the first modern humans north of the Sahara are found in the Levant around 120-90 ka, northward dispersal likely occurred during the humid episode in the Sahara within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130-117 ka). The obvious dispersal route, the Nile, may be ruled out by notable differences between archaeological finds in the Nile Valley and the Levant at the critical time. Further west, space-born radar images reveal networks of - now buried - fossil river channels that extend across the desert to the Mediterranean coast, which represent alternative dispersal corridors. This would explain scattered findings at desert oases of Middle Stone Age (MSA) Aterian lithic industries with bifacial and tanged points that can be linked with industries further to the east and as far north as the Mediterranean coast. We have previously used neodymium and oxygen isotope data to suggest that there was enhanced Nile outflow to the Levantine Sea during Saharan humid periods in Stage 5e and the Holocene1. Here, however, we present further geochemical data which suggest that the freshwater signal from Africa was much stronger further west in the Ionian Sea. Furthermore, analyses of shell samples retrieved from the Libyan fossil river channels traces the geochemical signature found in the Ionian Sea to the Tibesti Mountains in the southern Sahara. These data demonstrate that water in the fossil river systems of the Sahara derived from the south during wet episodes in general, and penetrated all the way to the Mediterranean during MIS 5e in particular, confirming the existence of an uninterrupted freshwater corridor across

  10. A humid corridor across the Sahara for the migration of early modern humans out of Africa 120,000 years ago.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osborne, Anne H; Vance, Derek; Rohling, Eelco J; Barton, Nick; Rogerson, Mike; Fello, Nuri

    2008-10-28

    It is widely accepted that modern humans originated in sub-Saharan Africa approximately 150-200 thousand years ago (ka), but their route of dispersal across the currently hyperarid Sahara remains controversial. Given that the first modern humans north of the Sahara are found in the Levant approximately 120-90 ka, northward dispersal likely occurred during a humid episode in the Sahara within Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e (130-117 ka). The obvious dispersal route, the Nile, may be ruled out by notable differences between archaeological finds in the Nile Valley and the Levant at the critical time. Further west, space-born radar images reveal networks of-now buried-fossil river channels that extend across the desert to the Mediterranean coast, which represent alternative dispersal corridors. These corridors would explain scattered findings at desert oases of Middle Stone Age Aterian lithic industries with bifacial and tanged points that can be linked with industries further to the east and as far north as the Mediterranean coast. Here we present geochemical data that demonstrate that water in these fossil systems derived from the south during wet episodes in general, and penetrated all of the way to the Mediterranean during MIS 5e in particular. This proves the existence of an uninterrupted freshwater corridor across a currently hyperarid region of the Sahara at a key time for early modern human migrations to the north and out of Africa.

  11. Out of Africa: modern human origins special feature: additional evidence on the use of personal ornaments in the Middle Paleolithic of North Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Errico, Francesco; Vanhaeren, Marian; Barton, Nick; Bouzouggar, Abdeljalil; Mienis, Henk; Richter, Daniel; Hublin, Jean-Jacques; McPherron, Shannon P; Lozouet, Pierre

    2009-09-22

    Recent investigations into the origins of symbolism indicate that personal ornaments in the form of perforated marine shell beads were used in the Near East, North Africa, and SubSaharan Africa at least 35 ka earlier than any personal ornaments in Europe. Together with instances of pigment use, engravings, and formal bone tools, personal ornaments are used to support an early emergence of behavioral modernity in Africa, associated with the origin of our species and significantly predating the timing for its dispersal out of Africa. Criticisms have been leveled at the low numbers of recovered shells, the lack of secure dating evidence, and the fact that documented examples were not deliberately shaped. In this paper, we report on 25 additional shell beads from four Moroccan Middle Paleolithic sites. We review their stratigraphic and chronological contexts and address the issue of these shells having been deliberately modified and used. We detail the results of comparative analyses of modern, fossil, and archaeological assemblages and microscopic examinations of the Moroccan material. We conclude that Nassarius shells were consistently used for personal ornamentation in this region at the end of the last interglacial. Absence of ornaments at Middle Paleolithic sites postdating Marine Isotope Stage 5 raises the question of the possible role of climatic changes in the disappearance of this hallmark of symbolic behavior before its reinvention 40 ka ago. Our results suggest that further inquiry is necessary into the mechanisms of cultural transmission within early Homo sapiens populations.

  12. Basin-scale Modeling of Geological Carbon Sequestration: Model Complexity, Injection Scenario and Sensitivity Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X.; Bandilla, K.; Celia, M. A.; Bachu, S.

    2013-12-01

    Geological carbon sequestration can significantly contribute to climate-change mitigation only if it is deployed at a very large scale. This means that injection scenarios must occur, and be analyzed, at the basin scale. Various mathematical models of different complexity may be used to assess the fate of injected CO2 and/or resident brine. These models span the range from multi-dimensional, multi-phase numerical simulators to simple single-phase analytical solutions. In this study, we consider a range of models, all based on vertically-integrated governing equations, to predict the basin-scale pressure response to specific injection scenarios. The Canadian section of the Basal Aquifer is used as a test site to compare the different modeling approaches. The model domain covers an area of approximately 811,000 km2, and the total injection rate is 63 Mt/yr, corresponding to 9 locations where large point sources have been identified. Predicted areas of critical pressure exceedance are used as a comparison metric among the different modeling approaches. Comparison of the results shows that single-phase numerical models may be good enough to predict the pressure response over a large aquifer; however, a simple superposition of semi-analytical or analytical solutions is not sufficiently accurate because spatial variability of formation properties plays an important role in the problem, and these variations are not captured properly with simple superposition. We consider two different injection scenarios: injection at the source locations and injection at locations with more suitable aquifer properties. Results indicate that in formations with significant spatial variability of properties, strong variations in injectivity among the different source locations can be expected, leading to the need to transport the captured CO2 to suitable injection locations, thereby necessitating development of a pipeline network. We also consider the sensitivity of porosity and

  13. Sea level and shoreline reconstructions for the Red Sea: isostatic and tectonic considerations and implications for hominin migration out of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambeck, Kurt; Purcell, Anthony; Flemming, Nicholas. C.; Vita-Finzi, Claudio; Alsharekh, Abdullah M.; Bailey, Geoffrey N.

    2011-12-01

    The history of sea level within the Red Sea basin impinges on several areas of research. For archaeology and prehistory, past sea levels of the southern sector define possible pathways of human dispersal out of Africa. For tectonics, the interglacial sea levels provide estimates of rates for vertical tectonics. For global sea level studies, the Red Sea sediments contain a significant record of changing water chemistry with implications on the mass exchange between oceans and ice sheets during glacial cycles. And, because of its geometry and location, the Red Sea provides a test laboratory for models of glacio-hydro-isostasy. The Red Sea margins contain incomplete records of sea level for the Late Holocene, for the Last Glacial Maximum, for the Last Interglacial and for earlier interglacials. These are usually interpreted in terms of tectonics and ocean volume changes but it is shown here that the glacio-hydro-isostatic process is an additional important component with characteristic spatial variability. Through an iterative analysis of the Holocene and interglacial evidence a separation of the tectonic, isostatic and eustatic contributions is possible and we present a predictive model for palaeo-shorelines and water depths for a time interval encompassing the period proposed for migrations of modern humans out of Africa. Principal conclusions include the following. (i) Late Holocene sea level signals evolve along the length of the Red Sea, with characteristic mid-Holocene highstands not developing in the central part. (ii) Last Interglacial sea level signals are also location dependent and, in the absence of tectonics, are not predicted to occur more than 1-2 m above present sea level. (iii) For both periods, Red Sea levels at 'expected far-field' elevations are not necessarily indicative of tectonic stability and the evidence points to a long-wavelength tectonic uplift component along both the African and Arabian northern and central sides of the Red Sea. (iv) The

  14. Role of Hemodynamic Forces in Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms: An Overview of a Complex Scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Longo, Marcello; Granata, Francesca; Racchiusa, Sergio; Mormina, Enricomaria; Grasso, Giovanni; Longo, Giuseppe Maria; Garufi, Giada; Salpietro, Francesco M; Alafaci, Concetta

    2017-09-01

    An understanding of the natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms (IAs) has always played a critical role in presurgical or endovascular planning, to avoid possibly fatal events. Size, shape, morphology, and location are known risk factors for rupture of an aneurysm, but morphologic parameters alone may not be sufficient to perform proper rupture risk stratification. We performed a systematic PubMed search and focused on hemodynamics forces that may influence aneurysmal initiation, growth, and rupture. We included 223 studies describing several hemodynamic parameters related to aneurysm natural history. In these studies, different modalities of aneurysm model creation have been used to evaluate flow and to comprehensively analyze the evolution of IAs. Controversy exists about the correlation between these parameters and initiation, growth, rupture risk, or stabilization of the aneurysmal sac. Recent findings have also shown the importance of flow patterns in this process and the relationship between unruptured IA geometry and hemodynamic parameters. The role of hemodynamic forces in evaluation of the natural history of unruptured IAs presents is inherently complex and is still not completely understood. In this complex scenario, although several attempts have been described in the literature, a proper risk rupture stratification and treatment strategy selection based on hemodynamic forces has not yet been created. Further efforts should be made to accomplish this important goal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. πBUSS: a parallel BEAST/BEAGLE utility for sequence simulation under complex evolutionary scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bielejec, Filip; Lemey, Philippe; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Baele, Guy; Rambaut, Andrew; Suchard, Marc A

    2014-05-07

    Simulated nucleotide or amino acid sequences are frequently used to assess the performance of phylogenetic reconstruction methods. BEAST, a Bayesian statistical framework that focuses on reconstructing time-calibrated molecular evolutionary processes, supports a wide array of evolutionary models, but lacked matching machinery for simulation of character evolution along phylogenies. We present a flexible Monte Carlo simulation tool, called πBUSS, that employs the BEAGLE high performance library for phylogenetic computations to rapidly generate large sequence alignments under complex evolutionary models. πBUSS sports a user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) that allows combining a rich array of models across an arbitrary number of partitions. A command-line interface mirrors the options available through the GUI and facilitates scripting in large-scale simulation studies. πBUSS may serve as an easy-to-use, standard sequence simulation tool, but the available models and data types are particularly useful to assess the performance of complex BEAST inferences. The connection with BEAST is further strengthened through the use of a common extensible markup language (XML), allowing to specify also more advanced evolutionary models. To support simulation under the latter, as well as to support simulation and analysis in a single run, we also add the πBUSS core simulation routine to the list of BEAST XML parsers. πBUSS offers a unique combination of flexibility and ease-of-use for sequence simulation under realistic evolutionary scenarios. Through different interfaces, πBUSS supports simulation studies ranging from modest endeavors for illustrative purposes to complex and large-scale assessments of evolutionary inference procedures. Applications are not restricted to the BEAST framework, or even time-measured evolutionary histories, and πBUSS can be connected to various other programs using standard input and output format.

  16. How to cope with complexity and adapt new scenarios to patient care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergio Dompé

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The last 60 years have been characterised by an increase in life expectancy and an improvement in the quality of patients' lives. Such advances, to a significant extent, can be attributed - up to 40% of the total - to the results of pharmaceutical research. However, many treatment needs remain unsatisfied: tumoral pathologies, AIDS, neurodegenerative diseases, psychiatric pathologies and rare diseases are only a few of the challenges facing research in its attempt to make new and effective therapies available. The knowledge necessary before a new medicinal product can be made available is becoming increasingly complex, in line with the rising costs of clinical development. In such a scenario success is the result of the commitment made by large groups, aided by the innovative capacity of the SMEs and the active role played by public centres of excellence. A fundamental passage represented by this new model is the part played by clinical studies, which while maintaining the highest standards of efficacy and safety are in a position to identify genetic characteristics and processes before initiating large-scale patient trials. In any case, therapeutic progress is closely dependent upon the choices made to fund research and, therefore, raises the twin question of rationalising expenditure and the sustainability of the NHS. In this framework, where any kind of wasteful spending harms the right to health, every health management inefficiency is intolerable and administrative optimisation undeferrable.

  17. Efficient near-real-time monitoring of 3D surface displacements in complex landslide scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allasia, Paolo; Manconi, Andrea; Giordan, Daniele; Baldo, Marco; Lollino, Giorgio

    2013-04-01

    Ground deformation measurements play a key role in monitoring activities of landslides. A wide spectrum of instruments and methods is nowadays available, going from in-situ to remote sensing approaches. In emergency scenarios, monitoring is often based on automated instruments capable to achieve accurate measurements, possibly with a very high temporal resolution, in order to achieve the best information about the evolution of the landslide in near-real-time, aiming at early warning purposes. However, the available tools for a rapid and efficient exploitation, understanding and interpretation of the retrieved measurements is still a challenge. This issue is particularly relevant in contexts where monitoring is fundamental to support early warning systems aimed at ensuring safety to people and/or infrastructures. Furthermore, in many cases the results obtained might be of difficult reading and divulgation, especially when people of different backgrounds are involved (e.g. scientists, authorities, civil protection operators, decision makers, etc.). In this work, we extend the concept of automatic and near real time from the acquisition of measurements to the data processing and divulgation, in order to achieve an efficient monitoring of surface displacements in landslide scenarios. We developed an algorithm that allows to go automatically and in near-real-time from the acquisition of 3D displacements on a landslide area to the efficient divulgation of the monitoring results via WEB. This set of straightforward procedures is called ADVICE (ADVanced dIsplaCement monitoring system for Early warning), and has been already successfully applied in several emergency scenarios. The algorithm includes: (i) data acquisition and transfer protocols; (ii) data collection, filtering, and validation; (iii) data analysis and restitution through a set of dedicated software, such as ©3DA [1]; (iv) recognition of displacement/velocity threshold and early warning (v) short term

  18. Assessment of national biomass in complex forests and technical capacity scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matieu Henry; Javier G. P. Gamarra; Gael Sola; Luca Birigazzi; Emily Donegan; Julian Murillo; Tommaso Chiti; Nicolas Picard; Miguel Cifuentes-Jara; S Sandeep; Laurent. Saint-André

    2015-01-01

    Understanding forest ecosystems is paramount for their sustainable management and for the livelihoods and ecosystem services which depend on them. However, the complexity and diversity of these systems poses a challenge to interpreting data patterns. The availability and accessibility of data and tools often determine the method selected for forest assessment. Capacity...

  19. Simulating nitrogen budgets in complex farming systems using INCA: calibration and scenario analyses for the Kervidy catchment (W. France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Durand

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The integrated nitrogen model INCA (Integrated Nitrogen in Catchments was used to analyse the nitrogen dynamics in a small rural catchment in Western France. The agrosystem studied is very complex, with: extensive use of different organic fertilisers, a variety of crop rotations, a structural excess of nitrogen (i.e. more animal N produced by the intensive farming than the N requirements of the crops and pastures, and nitrate retention in both hydrological stores and riparian zones. The original model features were adapted here to describe this complexity. The calibration results are satisfactory, although the daily variations in stream nitrate are not simulated in detail. Different climate scenarios, based on observed climate records, were tested; all produced a worsening of the pollution in the short term. Scenarios of alternative agricultural practices (reduced fertilisation and catch crops were also analysed, suggesting that a reduction by 40% of the fertilisation combined with the introduction of catch crops would be necessary to stop the degradation of water quality. Keywords: diffuse pollution, nitrate, climate change, model

  20. Implementation of behavioral health interventions in real world scenarios: Managing complex change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Khaya D; Miller, Benjamin F; Green, Larry A; de Gruy, Frank V; Davis, Melinda; Cohen, Deborah J

    2017-03-01

    A practice embarks on a radical reformulation of how care is designed and delivered when it decides to integrate medical and behavioral health care for its patients and success depends on managing complex change in a complex system. We examined the ways change is managed when integrating behavioral health and medical care. Observational cross-case comparative study of 19 primary care and community mental health practices. We collected mixed methods data through practice surveys, observation, and semistructured interviews. We analyzed data using a data-driven, emergent approach. The change management strategies that leadership employed to manage the changes of integrating behavioral health and medical care included: (a) advocating for a mission and vision focused on integrated care; (b) fostering collaboration, with a focus on population care and a team-based approaches; (c) attending to learning, which includes viewing the change process as continuous, and creating a culture that promoted reflection and continual improvement; (d) using data to manage change, and (e) developing approaches to finance integration. This paper reports the change management strategies employed by practice leaders making changes to integrate care, as observed by independent investigators. We offer an empirically based set of actionable recommendations that are relevant to a range of leaders (policymakers, medical directors) and practice members who wish to effectively manage the complex changes associated with integrated primary care. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. The importance of meteorological scales to forecast air pollution scenarios on coastal complex terrain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Palau

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Some of the meteorological approaches commonly considered in urban air pollution models do not take into account the importance of the smaller scales in the meteorology of complex-terrain coastal sites. The aim of this work is to estimate the impact of using the proper meteorological scales when simulating the behaviour of the pollutant concentrations emitted in the lower layers over coastal complex terrain areas. The availability of experimental measurements of a power plant plume near the Castellón conurbation (on the Spanish Mediterranean coast has allowed us to use this plume as a tracer of opportunity of the lower atmosphere to check the results of a simulation exercise using the RAMS mesoscale model coupled to the HYPACT particle model. The results obtained show that in a complex-terrain coastal site, because of the strong effect of the meteorological interactions between the different scales on the integral advection and the turbulent dispersion of pollutants, using an inadequate scale to solve the meteorology can result in a very big gap in the simulation of lower-layer pollutant behaviour at urban scales.

  2. Out of Africa The Influence of Narrative Means on Text Reception%《走出非洲》叙述手段对文本接受的影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    何大军

    2011-01-01

    叙述手段在读者和观众接受文本的过程中起着重要作用。文本的创作者可以通过顺序、节奏等叙述因素控制读者或观众。艾萨克·丹森的小说《走出非洲》打破了正常的叙述顺序,读者在阅读非洲的奇闻逸事的过程中会对文本产生极大的兴趣。西德尼·波拉克电影《走出非洲》则强调内心独白和音乐的作用,导演对文本进行了视觉和听觉的重建,让观众看到一个情节更加完整的故事。%Narrative means play an important role in readers and audiences' reception of the text. The composer of the text may control the readers and audiences by narrative elements such as sequence, pace, etc. Isak Dinesen' s novel Out of Africa breaks the normal narrative chronology and readers will have more interest in the text when they read a series of African anecdotes. Sydney Pollack' s film Out of Africa focuses on the role of the narrator' s monologues and the power of the music in the film. The director reconstructs the text in terms of vision and audition, letting audiences see a more complete plot.

  3. Tracking invasion histories in the sea: facing complex scenarios using multilocus data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rius, Marc; Turon, Xavier; Ordóñez, Víctor; Pascual, Marta

    2012-01-01

    In recent years, new analytical tools have allowed researchers to extract historical information contained in molecular data, which has fundamentally transformed our understanding of processes ruling biological invasions. However, the use of these new analytical tools has been largely restricted to studies of terrestrial organisms despite the growing recognition that the sea contains ecosystems that are amongst the most heavily affected by biological invasions, and that marine invasion histories are often remarkably complex. Here, we studied the routes of invasion and colonisation histories of an invasive marine invertebrate Microcosmus squamiger (Ascidiacea) using microsatellite loci, mitochondrial DNA sequence data and 11 worldwide populations. Discriminant analysis of principal components, clustering methods and approximate bayesian computation (ABC) methods showed that the most likely source of the introduced populations was a single admixture event that involved populations from two genetically differentiated ancestral regions--the western and eastern coasts of Australia. The ABC analyses revealed that colonisation of the introduced range of M. squamiger consisted of a series of non-independent introductions along the coastlines of Africa, North America and Europe. Furthermore, we inferred that the sequence of colonisation across continents was in line with historical taxonomic records--first the Mediterranean Sea and South Africa from an unsampled ancestral population, followed by sequential introductions in California and, more recently, the NE Atlantic Ocean. We revealed the most likely invasion history for world populations of M. squamiger, which is broadly characterized by the presence of multiple ancestral sources and non-independent introductions within the introduced range. The results presented here illustrate the complexity of marine invasion routes and identify a cause-effect relationship between human-mediated transport and the success of

  4. Tracking invasion histories in the sea: facing complex scenarios using multilocus data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marc Rius

    Full Text Available In recent years, new analytical tools have allowed researchers to extract historical information contained in molecular data, which has fundamentally transformed our understanding of processes ruling biological invasions. However, the use of these new analytical tools has been largely restricted to studies of terrestrial organisms despite the growing recognition that the sea contains ecosystems that are amongst the most heavily affected by biological invasions, and that marine invasion histories are often remarkably complex. Here, we studied the routes of invasion and colonisation histories of an invasive marine invertebrate Microcosmus squamiger (Ascidiacea using microsatellite loci, mitochondrial DNA sequence data and 11 worldwide populations. Discriminant analysis of principal components, clustering methods and approximate bayesian computation (ABC methods showed that the most likely source of the introduced populations was a single admixture event that involved populations from two genetically differentiated ancestral regions--the western and eastern coasts of Australia. The ABC analyses revealed that colonisation of the introduced range of M. squamiger consisted of a series of non-independent introductions along the coastlines of Africa, North America and Europe. Furthermore, we inferred that the sequence of colonisation across continents was in line with historical taxonomic records--first the Mediterranean Sea and South Africa from an unsampled ancestral population, followed by sequential introductions in California and, more recently, the NE Atlantic Ocean. We revealed the most likely invasion history for world populations of M. squamiger, which is broadly characterized by the presence of multiple ancestral sources and non-independent introductions within the introduced range. The results presented here illustrate the complexity of marine invasion routes and identify a cause-effect relationship between human-mediated transport and the

  5. Understanding the lithosphere in complex tectonic scenarios by integrating geophysical data: The Pyrenees case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campanyà, Joan; Fullea, Javier; Ledo, Juanjo; Queralt, Pilar; Marcuello, Alex; Liesa, Montserrat; Muñoz, Josep Anton

    2016-04-01

    Tectonic processes dominate the development of the outermost layer of the Earth over a timescale of millions of years. The locations where these processes take place provide a great opportunity for Earth scientists to study and understand the dynamics and properties of the lithosphere. The Pyrenees are a particular case of continental collision formed as a result of the collision between the Iberian and European plates, which caused the subduction of the Iberian lower crust below the European crust. Large amounts of geophysical data have been acquired in the area providing spectacular images of lithospheric subduction beneath the Western and Central Pyrenees, confirming the occurrence of this generally well-understood process. The Eastern Pyrenees, however, are a most puzzling part of the orogen and the geodynamical evolution of this area cannot be understood without the influence of the Neogene Mediterranean rifting, following the continental collision. The complexity of this area and the controversy of the geophysical results set in debate concepts well recognized in the other parts of the Pyrenees such as the subduction of the Iberian lower crust and the depth of the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary. The aims of this study are to characterise major tectonic and geophysical variations along the Pyrenean mountain range at a lithospheric-scale and constrain the causes of the observed lateral variations. A preliminary model of the lithospheric configuration and dynamics, based on magnetotelluric geophysical results, has been developed and constrained using independent and available geophysical, geological and geochemical data. Computational petrology methods, using Litmod, were used for integrated modelling of all data.

  6. Spatial and temporal variability of PM levels and composition in a complex summer atmospheric scenario in Barcelona (NE Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viana, M.; Pérez, C.; Querol, X.; Alastuey, A.; Nickovic, S.; Baldasano, J. M.

    Summer atmospheric coastal dynamics exert a significant influence on the levels and composition of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) in the North-Eastern Iberian Peninsula. Summer atmospheric scenarios in this region present a high degree of complexity as they are characterised by the absence of synoptic-scale air mass advections, the development of breeze circulations, enhanced photochemistry, local mineral dust re-suspension and the occurrence of African dust outbreaks. Three sampling sites were selected in Barcelona (NE Spain), an urban coastal site surrounded by complex topography. Regional dust modelling (DREAM) and high resolution meteorological modelling (MM5) were used to interpret PM levels and composition at the three sites. The results outline the effect of breeze dynamics and thermal internal boundary layer formation as the main meteorological drivers of the hourly evolution of PM levels. Levels of crustal components, secondary inorganic and carbon species are higher during the night, and only the marine aerosol content is higher during the day. Nitrate levels are higher during the night due to the thermal stability on NH 4NO 3. Sulphate levels are higher during the night as a consequence of the drainage flows. Lidar measurements and model results signalled the occurrence of two African dust episodes during the study period which mainly affected the free troposphere over Barcelona.

  7. Evolutionary site-number changes of ribosomal DNA loci during speciation: complex scenarios of ancestral and more recent polyploid events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosato, Marcela; Moreno-Saiz, Juan C; Galián, José A; Rosselló, Josep A

    2015-11-16

    Several genome duplications have been identified in the evolution of seed plants, providing unique systems for studying karyological processes promoting diversification and speciation. Knowledge about the number of ribosomal DNA (rDNA) loci, together with their chromosomal distribution and structure, provides clues about organismal and molecular evolution at various phylogenetic levels. In this work, we aim to elucidate the evolutionary dynamics of karyological and rDNA site-number variation in all known taxa of subtribe Vellinae, showing a complex scenario of ancestral and more recent polyploid events. Specifically, we aim to infer the ancestral chromosome numbers and patterns of chromosome number variation, assess patterns of variation of both 45S and 5S rDNA families, trends in site-number change of rDNA loci within homoploid and polyploid series, and reconstruct the evolutionary history of rDNA site number using a phylogenetic hypothesis as a framework. The best-fitting model of chromosome number evolution with a high likelihood score suggests that the Vellinae core showing x = 17 chromosomes arose by duplication events from a recent x = 8 ancestor. Our survey suggests more complex patterns of polyploid evolution than previously noted for Vellinae. High polyploidization events (6x, 8x) arose independently in the basal clade Vella castrilensis-V. lucentina, where extant diploid species are unknown. Reconstruction of ancestral rDNA states in Vellinae supports the inference that the ancestral number of loci in the subtribe was two for each multigene family, suggesting that an overall tendency towards a net loss of 5S rDNA loci occurred during the splitting of Vellinae ancestors from the remaining Brassiceae lineages. A contrasting pattern for rDNA site change in both paleopolyploid and neopolyploid species was linked to diversification of Vellinae lineages. This suggests dynamic and independent changes in rDNA site number during speciation processes and a

  8. Hybrid Surgery Options for Complex Clinical Scenarios in Adult Patients with Congenital Heart Disease: Three Case Reports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rapetto, Filippo; Kenny, Damien; Turner, Mark; Parry, Andrew; Stoica, Serban; Uzun, Orhan; Caputo, Massimo

    2017-01-01

    treatment options for this patient population. A multidisciplinary and patient-tailored approach is crucial in these complex clinical scenarios. PMID:28232910

  9. Experimental and Numerical Models of Complex Clinical Scenarios; Strategies to Improve Relevance and Reproducibility of Joint Replacement Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechtold, Joan E; Swider, Pascal; Goreham-Voss, Curtis; Soballe, Kjeld

    2016-02-01

    This research review aims to focus attention on the effect of specific surgical and host factors on implant fixation, and the importance of accounting for them in experimental and numerical models. These factors affect (a) eventual clinical applicability and (b) reproducibility of findings across research groups. Proper function and longevity for orthopedic joint replacement implants relies on secure fixation to the surrounding bone. Technology and surgical technique has improved over the last 50 years, and robust ingrowth and decades of implant survival is now routinely achieved for healthy patients and first-time (primary) implantation. Second-time (revision) implantation presents with bone loss with interfacial bone gaps in areas vital for secure mechanical fixation. Patients with medical comorbidities such as infection, smoking, congestive heart failure, kidney disease, and diabetes have a diminished healing response, poorer implant fixation, and greater revision risk. It is these more difficult clinical scenarios that require research to evaluate more advanced treatment approaches. Such treatments can include osteogenic or antimicrobial implant coatings, allo- or autogenous cellular or tissue-based approaches, local and systemic drug delivery, surgical approaches. Regarding implant-related approaches, most experimental and numerical models do not generally impose conditions that represent mechanical instability at the implant interface, or recalcitrant healing. Many treatments will work well in forgiving settings, but fail in complex human settings with disease, bone loss, or previous surgery. Ethical considerations mandate that we justify and limit the number of animals tested, which restricts experimental permutations of treatments. Numerical models provide flexibility to evaluate multiple parameters and combinations, but generally need to employ simplifying assumptions. The objectives of this paper are to (a) to highlight the importance of mechanical

  10. Regional-scale scenario modeling for coral reefs: a decision support tool to inform management of a complex system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Johnson, Craig R; Fung, Tak; Seymour, Robert M; Chérubin, Laurent M; Arias-González, J Ernesto; Fulton, Elizabeth A

    2011-06-01

    The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef systems.

  11. Novel OCT flushing technique for complex scenarios: imaging during iatrogenic transient AV block induced by intracoronary adenosine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sreckovic, Miodrag J; Jagic, Nikola B; Neskovic, Aleksandar N

    2014-11-01

    We report the application of a novel optical coherence tomography (OCT) flushing technique where OCT run was performed during transient complete atrioventricular block induced by intracoronary bolus of adenosine. This technique may allow lower hydraulic force needed for contrast flush and reduce artifacts, with consequently improved OCT imaging in demanding clinical scenarios.

  12. Out of Africa: modern human origins special feature: human origins: out of Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tattersall, Ian

    2009-09-22

    Our species, Homo sapiens, is highly autapomorphic (uniquely derived) among hominids in the structure of its skull and postcranial skeleton. It is also sharply distinguished from other organisms by its unique symbolic mode of cognition. The fossil and archaeological records combine to show fairly clearly that our physical and cognitive attributes both first appeared in Africa, but at different times. Essentially modern bony conformation was established in that continent by the 200-150 Ka range (a dating in good agreement with dates for the origin of H. sapiens derived from modern molecular diversity). The event concerned was apparently short-term because it is essentially unanticipated in the fossil record. In contrast, the first convincing stirrings of symbolic behavior are not currently detectable until (possibly well) after 100 Ka. The radical reorganization of gene expression that underwrote the distinctive physical appearance of H. sapiens was probably also responsible for the neural substrate that permits symbolic cognition. This exaptively acquired potential lay unexploited until it was "discovered" via a cultural stimulus, plausibly the invention of language. Modern humans appear to have definitively exited Africa to populate the rest of the globe only after both their physical and cognitive peculiarities had been acquired within that continent.

  13. Student Performance along Axes of Scenario Novelty and Complexity in Introductory Biology: Lessons from a Unique Factorial Approach to Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deane-Coe, Kirsten K.; Sarvary, Mark A.; Owens, Thomas G.

    2017-01-01

    In an undergraduate introductory biology laboratory course, we used a summative assessment to directly test the learning objective that students will be able to apply course material to increasingly novel and complex situations. Using a factorial framework, we developed multiple true-false questions to fall along axes of novelty and complexity,…

  14. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  15. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts ...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  16. Developing scenario-based serious games for complex cognitive skills acquisition: Design, development and evaluation of the EMERGO platform

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slootmaker, Aad; Kurvers, Hub; Hummel, Hans; Koper, Rob

    2014-01-01

    Serious games are considered to provide powerful and attractive ways to acquire complex cognitive skills for education and training. But existing platforms for development of game-based e-learning often appear either not to be very user-friendly or too rigid or costly. This article addresses the des

  17. Handling Qualities Evaluations of Low Complexity Model Reference Adaptive Controllers for Reduced Pitch and Roll Damping Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Curt; Schaefer, Jacob; Burken, John J.; Johnson, Marcus; Nguyen, Nhan

    2011-01-01

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) researchers have conducted a series of flight experiments designed to study the effects of varying levels of adaptive controller complexity on the performance and handling qualities of an aircraft under various simulated failure or damage conditions. A baseline, nonlinear dynamic inversion controller was augmented with three variations of a model reference adaptive control design. The simplest design consisted of a single adaptive parameter in each of the pitch and roll axes computed using a basic gradient-based update law. A second design was built upon the first by increasing the complexity of the update law. The third and most complex design added an additional adaptive parameter to each axis. Flight tests were conducted using NASA s Full-scale Advanced Systems Testbed, a highly modified F-18 aircraft that contains a research flight control system capable of housing advanced flight controls experiments. Each controller was evaluated against a suite of simulated failures and damage ranging from destabilization of the pitch and roll axes to significant coupling between the axes. Two pilots evaluated the three adaptive controllers as well as the non-adaptive baseline controller in a variety of dynamic maneuvers and precision flying tasks designed to uncover potential deficiencies in the handling qualities of the aircraft, and adverse interactions between the pilot and the adaptive controllers. The work was completed as part of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control Project under NASA s Aviation Safety Program.

  18. A critical look at the merger scenario to explain multiple populations and rotation in iron-complex globular clusters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavagnin, Elena; Mapelli, Michela; Lake, George

    2016-09-01

    Merging has been proposed to explain multiple populations in globular clusters (GCs) where there is a spread in iron abundance (hereafter, iron-complex GCs). By means of N-body simulations, we investigate if merging is consistent with the observations of subpopulations and rotation in iron-complex GCs. The key parameters are the initial mass and density ratios of the progenitors. When densities are similar, the more massive progenitor dominates the central part of the merger remnant and the less massive progenitor forms an extended rotating population. The low-mass progenitor can become the majority population in the central regions of the merger remnant only if its initial density is higher by roughly the mass ratio. To match the radial distribution of multiple populations in two iron-complex GCs (ω Cen and NGC 1851), the less massive progenitor needs to be four times as dense as the larger one. Our merger remnants show solid-body rotation in the inner parts, becoming differential in the outer parts. Rotation velocity V and ellipticity ɛ are in agreement with models for oblate rotators with isotropic dispersion. We discuss several kinematic signatures of a merger with a denser lower mass progenitor that can be tested with future observations.

  19. A critical look at the merger scenario to explain multiple populations and rotation in iron-complex globular clusters

    CERN Document Server

    Gavagnin, Elena; Lake, George

    2016-01-01

    Merging has been proposed to explain multiple populations in globular clusters (GCs) where there is a spread in iron abundance (hereafter, iron-complex GCs). By means of N-body simulations, we investigate if merging is consistent with the observations of sub-populations and rotation in iron-complex GCs. The key parameters are the initial mass and density ratios of the progenitors. When densities are similar, the more massive progenitor dominates the central part of the merger remnant and the less massive progenitor forms an extended rotating population. The low-mass progenitor can become the majority population in the central regions of the merger remnant only if its initial density is higher by roughly the mass ratio. To match the radial distribution of multiple populations in two iron-complex GCs ({\\omega} Cen and NGC 1851), the less massive progenitor needs to be four times as dense as the larger one. Our merger remnants show solid-body rotation in the inner parts, becoming differential in the outer parts....

  20. Scenario analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, L.; Braat, L.C.; Lei, G.; Arets, E.J.M.M.; Liu, J.; Jiang, L.; Fan, Z.; Liu, W.; He, H.; Sun, X.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter presents the results of the scenario analysis of China’s ecosystems focusing on forest, grassland, and wetland ecosystems. The analysis was undertaken using Conversion of Land Use Change and its Effects (CLUE) modeling and an ecosystem service matrix (as explained below) complemented by

  1. Exposure scenarios for workers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marquart, Hans; Northage, Christine; Money, Chris

    2007-12-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate considerations of both human health and the environment. Specific aspects are relevant for worker exposure. Gathering information on the uses of the chemical is an important step in developing an Exposure Scenario. In-house information at manufacturers is an important source. Downstream users can contribute information through direct contact or through their associations. Relatively simple approaches (Tier 1 tools, such as the ECETOC Targeted Risk Assessment and the model EASE) can be used to develop broad Exposure Scenarios that cover many use situations. These approaches rely on the categorisation of just a few determinants, including only a small number of risk management measures. Such approaches have a limited discriminatory power and are rather conservative. When the hazard of the substance or the complexity of the exposure situation require a more in-depth approach, further development of the Exposure Scenarios with Tier 2 approaches is needed. Measured data sets of worker exposure are very valuable in a Tier 2 approach. Some downstream user associations have attempted to build Exposure Scenarios based on measured data sets. Generic Tier 2 tools for developing Exposure Scenarios do not exist yet. To enable efficient development of the worker exposure part of Exposure Scenarios a further development of Tier 1 and Tier 2 tools is needed. Special attention should be given to user friendliness and to the validity (boundaries) of the approaches. The development of standard worker exposure descriptions or full Exposure Scenarios by downstream user branches in cooperation with manufacturers and importers is recommended.

  2. Determining ancestry proportions in complex admixture scenarios in South Africa using a novel proxy ancestry selection method.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emile R Chimusa

    Full Text Available Admixed populations can make an important contribution to the discovery of disease susceptibility genes if the parental populations exhibit substantial variation in susceptibility. Admixture mapping has been used successfully, but is not designed to cope with populations that have more than two or three ancestral populations. The inference of admixture proportions and local ancestry and the imputation of missing genotypes in admixed populations are crucial in both understanding variation in disease and identifying novel disease loci. These inferences make use of reference populations, and accuracy depends on the choice of ancestral populations. Using an insufficient or inaccurate ancestral panel can result in erroneously inferred ancestry and affect the detection power of GWAS and meta-analysis when using imputation. Current algorithms are inadequate for multi-way admixed populations. To address these challenges we developed PROXYANC, an approach to select the best proxy ancestral populations. From the simulation of a multi-way admixed population we demonstrate the capability and accuracy of PROXYANC and illustrate the importance of the choice of ancestry in both estimating admixture proportions and imputing missing genotypes. We applied this approach to a complex, uniquely admixed South African population. Using genome-wide SNP data from over 764 individuals, we accurately estimate the genetic contributions from the best ancestral populations: isiXhosa [Formula: see text], ‡Khomani SAN [Formula: see text], European [Formula: see text], Indian [Formula: see text], and Chinese [Formula: see text]. We also demonstrate that the ancestral allele frequency differences correlate with increased linkage disequilibrium in the South African population, which originates from admixture events rather than population bottlenecks.The collective term for people of mixed ancestry in southern Africa is "Coloured," and this is officially recognized in South

  3. The multiple and complex and changeable scenarios of the Trypanosoma cruzi transmission cycle in the sylvatic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jansen, Ana Maria; Xavier, Samanta C C; Roque, André Luiz R

    2015-11-01

    isolates); however, in spite of being significantly less frequent (17%), TcII is also widely distributed. Concomitant DTU infection occurred in 16% of infected mammals of all biomes and included arboreal and terrestrial species, as well as bats. TcI/TcII concomitant infection was the most common and widely dispersed, with mixed TcI/TcII infections especially common in coatis and in Didelphimorphia. The second most common pattern of concomitant infection was TcI/TcIV, observed in Chiroptera, Didelphimorphia and Primates. Taken together, our results demonstrate the complexity of T. cruzi reservoir system and its transmission strategies, indicating that there is considerably more to be learned regarding ecology of T. cruzi.

  4. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  5. Sustainable Complex Triangular Cells for the Evaluation of CO2 Emissions by Individuals instead of Nations in a Scenario for 2030

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Sthel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The concept of sustainable complex triangular cells may be applied to an individual of any human society. This concept was introduced in two recent articles. A case study was proposed to show the applicability of this new concept to Indian populations without contact with civilization and with a low environmental impact. Here we propose to apply this concept to a recent study, which claims that the concept of “common but differentiated responsibilities” refers to the emissions of individuals instead of nations. The income distribution of a country was used to estimate how its fossil fuel CO2 emissions are distributed among its citizens and, from that a global CO2 distribution was constructed. We propose the extension of the concept of complex triangular cells where its area would be equivalent to the CO2 emission per individual. In addition, a new three-dimensional geometric model for the regular hexagonal structure is offered in which the sharing of natural resources (human cooperation is employed to reduce CO2 emissions in two scenarios by 2030.

  6. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate con

  7. Participatory Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop......The paper describes the paradigm, framework and a guideline how to use scenario methods in a workshop...

  8. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  9. Structural and functional models in molybdenum and tungsten bioinorganic chemistry: description of selected model complexes, present scenario and possible future scopes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majumdar, Amit

    2014-06-28

    A brief description about some selected model complexes in molybdenum and tungsten bioinorganic chemistry is provided. The synthetic strategies involved and their limitations are discussed. Current status of molybdenum and tungsten bioinorganic modeling chemistry is presented briefly and synthetic problems associated therein are analyzed. Possible future directions which may expand the scope of modeling chemistry are suggested.

  10. Review of Climate Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    Concept and application requirements of climate scenarios were introduced briefly,meanwhile,progresses on theoretical and applied aspects of climate scenarios creation techniques were discussed systematically.Two methods on predicted regional climate changing scenarios,elevating the spatial resolution output and downscaling method,could retrieve the insufficiencies respectively.And the statistical-dynamical downscaling method will be an important developing trend in the developing of downscaling techniques.

  11. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  12. LHC Upgrade Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Zimmermann, F

    2007-01-01

    The EU CARE-HHH and US-LARP studies for an LHC luminosity upgrade aim at increasing the peak luminosity by a factor of 10, to 1035 cm-2s-1. The luminosity can be raised by rebuilding the interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. In addition to advanced low-beta quadrupoles, the upgraded IRs may accommodate other new elements such as slim s.c. dipoles or quadrupoles embedded deep inside the detectors, global low-angle crab cavities, and wire compensators of long-range beam-beam effects. Important constraints on the upgrade path are the maximum acceptable number of detector pile-up events, favoring many closely spaced bunches, and the heat load on the cold-magnet beam screens, pointing towards fewer and more intense bunches. In order to translate the increased peak luminosity into a correspondingly higher integrated luminosity, the upgrade of the LHC ring should be complemented by an upgrade of the injector complex. I will present preferred upgrade scenarios for the L...

  13. Scenarios for earthquake-generated tsunamis on a complex tectonic area of diffuse deformation and low velocity: The Alboran Sea, Western Mediterranean

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Gomez, J. A.; Aniel-Quiroga, I.; Gonzalez, M.; Olabarrieta, M.; Carreno, E.

    2011-01-01

    The tsunami impact on the Spanish and North African coasts of the Alboran Sea generated by several reliable seismic tsunamigenic sources in this area was modeled. The tectonic setting is complex and a study of the potential sources from geological data is basic to obtain probable source characteristics. The tectonic structures considered in this study as potentially tsunamigenic are: the Alboran Ridge associated structures, the Carboneras Fault Zone and the Yusuf Fault Zone. We characterized 12 probable tsunamigenic seismic sources in the Alboran Basin based on the results of recent oceanographical studies. The strain rate in the area is low and therefore its seismicity is moderate and cannot be used to infer characteristics of the major seismic sources. These sources have been used as input for the numerical simulation of the wave propagation, based on the solution of the nonlinear shallow water equations through a finite-difference technique. We calculated the Maximum Wave Elevations, and Tsunami Travel Times using the numerical simulations. The results are shown as maps and profiles along the Spanish and African coasts. The sources associated with the Alboran Ridge show the maximum potential to generate damaging tsunamis, with maximum wave elevations in front of the coast exceeding 1.5. m. The Carboneras and Yusuf faults are not capable of generating disastrous tsunamis on their own, although their proximity to the coast could trigger landslides and associated sea disturbances. The areas which are more exposed to the impact of tsunamis generated in the Alboran Sea are the Spanish coast between Malaga and Adra, and the African coast between Alhoceima and Melilla. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  14. Scenarios for nature development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Harms, W.B.

    1995-01-01

    A procedure in backcasting scenarios is presented. Two case-studies differing in scale illustrate the differences in ecological contribution to plan design and to plan evaluation. Scenarios for nature development are presented for both case-studies, based on ecological objectives and spatial strateg

  15. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  16. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning...... and counterintuitive ways in which an organization uses scenario planning in balancing the tension between exploration and exploitation. Moreover, this research proposes two novel mechanisms designed to enhance learning flows. At the core of this dissertation are four papers which in combination solidify our...

  17. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  18. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  19. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elena M. Bennett

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  20. Complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Gershenson, Carlos

    2011-01-01

    The term complexity derives etymologically from the Latin plexus, which means interwoven. Intuitively, this implies that something complex is composed by elements that are difficult to separate. This difficulty arises from the relevant interactions that take place between components. This lack of separability is at odds with the classical scientific method - which has been used since the times of Galileo, Newton, Descartes, and Laplace - and has also influenced philosophy and engineering. In recent decades, the scientific study of complexity and complex systems has proposed a paradigm shift in science and philosophy, proposing novel methods that take into account relevant interactions.

  1. ONLINE PUBLISHING CURRENT SCENARIO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balasubramanian Thiagarajan

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article attempts to unravel the current scenario in online publishing. Advent of internet has brought with it tremendous changes in the publishing industry. What was hither to an industry dominated by publisher has been thrown open to one and sundry. Online publishing has brought with it a reach which was hitherto never been imagined. In the normal course it would take at least a year to publish a manuscript. Online publishing has managed to bring this time down to a few weeks / at most a month. This article attempts to discusses the positives and perils of online publishing scenario.

  2. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  3. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway...

  4. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.

  5. Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art dynamic model of the domestic biofuels supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues, their feasibility, and potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, physical/technological/economic constraints, behavior, and policy. The model uses a system dynamics simulation (not optimization) to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain.

  6. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta;

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  7. Complex

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    CLEMENT O BEWAJI

    Schiff bases and their complex compounds have been studied for their .... establishing coordination of the N–(2 – hydroxybenzyl) - L - α - valine Schiff base ..... (1967); “Spectrophotometric Identification of Organic Compounds”, Willey, New.

  8. Demand scenarios, worldwide

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schaefer, A. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial Development and the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-11-01

    Existing methods are inadequate for developing aggregate (regional and global) and long-term (several decades) passenger transport demand scenarios, since they are mainly based on simple extensions of current patterns rather than causal relationships that account for the competition among transport modes (aircraft, automobiles, buses and trains) to provide transport services. The demand scenario presented in this paper is based on two empirically proven invariances of human behavior. First, transport accounts for 10 to 15 percent of household total expenditures for those owning an automobile, and around 5 percent for non-motorized households on average (travel money budget). Second, the mean time spent traveling is approximately one hour per capita per day (travel time budget). These two budgets constraints determine the dynamics of the scenario: rising income increases per capita expenditure on travel which, in turn, increase demand for mobility. Limited travel time constraints travelers to shift to faster transport systems. The scenario is initiated with the first integrated historical data set on traffic volume in 11 world regions and the globe from 1960 to 1990 for all major modes of motorized transport. World average per capita traffic volume, which was 1,800 kilometers in 1960 and 4,2090 in 1990, is estimated to rise to 7,900 kilometers in 2020 - given a modest average increase in Gross World Product of 1.9% per year. Higher economic growth rates in Asian regions result in an increase in regional per capita traffic volume up to a factor of 5.3 from 1990 levels. Modal splits continue shifting to more flexible and faster modes of transport. At one point, passenger cars can no longer satisfy the increasing demand for speed (i.e. rising mobility within a fixed time budget). In North America it is estimated that the absolute traffic volume of automobiles will gradually decline starting in the 2010s. (author) 13 figs., 6 tabs., 35 refs.

  9. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with varyin

  10. Industrial research for transmutation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camarcat, Noel; Garzenne, Claude; Le Mer, Joël; Leroyer, Hadrien; Desroches, Estelle; Delbecq, Jean-Michel

    2011-04-01

    This article presents the results of research scenarios for americium transmutation in a 22nd century French nuclear fleet, using sodium fast breeder reactors. We benchmark the americium transmutation benefits and drawbacks with a reference case consisting of a hypothetical 60 GWe fleet of pure plutonium breeders. The fluxes in the various parts of the cycle (reactors, fabrication plants, reprocessing plants and underground disposals) are calculated using EDF's suite of codes, comparable in capabilities to those of other research facilities. We study underground thermal heat load reduction due to americium partitioning and repository area minimization. We endeavor to estimate the increased technical complexity of surface facilities to handle the americium fluxes in special fuel fabrication plants, americium fast burners, special reprocessing shops, handling equipments and transport casks between those facilities.

  11. Crisis and Crisis Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Øjvind

    2016-01-01

    This special issue of Nordicum-Mediterraneum contains select proceedings from the third meeting of the Nordic Summer University research circle called “Crisis and Crisis Scenarios: Normativity, Possibilities and Dilemmas”, held April 9th — 12th, 2015 at the Lysebu Conference Centre in Oslo, Norway....... The circle’s research program runs from 2014 to 2016 and is aimed at examining the concept of crisis as it is used today in academia and public discussion. In this collection of papers from the symposium we present some of the different ways in which the topic of the study group was addressed....

  12. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  13. Scenarios for the making of vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holland, Nicholas D; Holland, Linda Z; Holland, Peter W H

    2015-04-23

    Over the past 200 years, almost every invertebrate phylum has been proposed as a starting point for evolving vertebrates. Most of these scenarios are outdated, but several are still seriously considered. The short-range transition from ancestral invertebrate chordates (similar to amphioxus and tunicates) to vertebrates is well accepted. However, longer-range transitions leading up to the invertebrate chordates themselves are more controversial. Opinion is divided between the annelid and the enteropneust scenarios, predicting, respectively, a complex or a simple ancestor for bilaterian animals. Deciding between these ideas will be facilitated by further comparative studies of multicellular animals, including enigmatic taxa such as xenacoelomorphs.

  14. ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Barklow, T; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design for the construction of a linear collider which can be operated at energies up to 500 GeV. This report summarizes the outcome of a study of possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes. The evolution of the physics outcomes is emphasized, including running initially at 500 GeV, then at 350 GeV and 250 GeV. The running scenarios have been chosen to optimize the Higgs precision measurements and top physics while searching for evidence for signals beyond the standard model, including dark matter. In addition to the certain precision physics on the Higgs and top that is the main focus of this study, there are scientific motivations that indicate the possibility for discoveries of new particles in the upcoming operations of the LHC or the early operation of the ILC. Follow-up studies of such discoveries could alter the plan for the centre-of-mass collision...

  15. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  16. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used...

  17. Scenario Planning in Higher Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rieley, James B.

    1997-01-01

    Proposes scenario planning in preparing for the future of higher education. Delineates a methodology for effective scenario planning: identifying potential future scenarios; examining social, economic, political, environmental, and technological influences; exploring mental models while looking through systems maps, and developing potential…

  18. Generating Scenarios When Data Are Missing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackey, Ryan

    2007-01-01

    The Hypothetical Scenario Generator (HSG) is being developed in conjunction with other components of artificial-intelligence systems for automated diagnosis and prognosis of faults in spacecraft, aircraft, and other complex engineering systems. The HSG accepts, as input, possibly incomplete data on the current state of a system (see figure). The HSG models a potential fault scenario as an ordered disjunctive tree of conjunctive consequences, wherein the ordering is based upon the likelihood that a particular conjunctive path will be taken for the given set of inputs. The computation of likelihood is based partly on a numerical ranking of the degree of completeness of data with respect to satisfaction of the antecedent conditions of prognostic rules. The results from the HSG are then used by a model-based artificial- intelligence subsystem to predict realistic scenarios and states.

  19. Scenario Development for Sustainable Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reisch, Lucia; Farsang, Andrea; Jégou, Francois

    in seasonal dependency due to global trade and storage and process technology. On the demand side, relatively high and stable incomes combined with low food prices have in-creased accessibility, availability and affordability of a highly diverse food supply. Yet, according to the FAO, total food production...... events and uncertainties, especially on long-term horizons such as 25-50 years ahead. In order to deal with these uncertainties, complexities and long-term challenges as well as to influence developments pro-actively, scenario planning is increasingly applied in both policy making and knowledge brokerage....... Scenarios can reveal uncertainties, can help prepare for unexpected changes and highlight crucial decisions to be taken today. Scenarios can offer a clearer picture of the present and visions for the future, can help to identify key driving forces and their trends as well as as-sess potential outcomes...

  20. Scenario development methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eng, T. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Hudson, J. [Rock Engineering Consultants, Welwyn Garden City, Herts (United Kingdom); Stephansson, O. [Royal Inst. of Tech., Stockholm (Sweden). Div. of Engineering Geology; Skagius, K.; Wiborgh, M. [Kemakta, Stockholm (Sweden)

    1994-11-01

    In the period 1981-1994, SKB has studied several methodologies to systematize and visualize all the features, events and processes (FEPs) that can influence a repository for radioactive waste in the future. All the work performed is based on the terminology and basic findings in the joint SKI/SKB work on scenario development presented in the SKB Technical Report 89-35. The methodologies studied are (a) Event tree analysis, (b) Influence diagrams and (c) Rock Engineering Systems (RES) matrices. Each one of the methodologies is explained in this report as well as examples of applications. One chapter is devoted to a comparison between the two most promising methodologies, namely: Influence diagrams and the RES methodology. In conclusion a combination of parts of the Influence diagram and the RES methodology is likely to be a promising approach. 26 refs.

  1. Communicating uncertainty in the IPCC's greenhouse gas emissions scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schenk, Niels J.; Lensink, Sander M.

    2007-01-01

    The issue of climate change required the development of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) by the IPCC. The complexity of the subject and the unique science-policy relation resulted in confusion and discussions appeared in popular media like The Economist. This paper reviews scenario li

  2. Effect analysis of transient scenarios for successful water management strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Middelkoop, H.; Deursen, van W.; Beek, van E.; Beersma, J.; Erdbrink, C.D.; Os, van A.G.

    2008-01-01

    Recent scenario studies on water management focus on one or two projection years and the effects on the water system and functions. The future is however more complex and dynamic. Therefore, we analyse transient scenarios in order to evaluate the performance of water management strategies. Current a

  3. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate a di...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI......design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...

  4. Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.; McDonald, Ben S.

    2013-09-24

    Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing different techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to PNNL for

  5. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  6. Defining Scenarios: Linking Integrated Models, Regional Concerns, and Stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartmann, H. C.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Mahmoud, M.

    2007-05-01

    Scenarios are important tools for long-term planning, and there is great interest in using integrated models in scenario studies. However, scenario definition and assessment are creative, as well as scientific, efforts. Using facilitated creative processes, we have worked with stakeholders to define regionally significant scenarios that encompass a broad range of hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional dimensions. The regional scenarios subsequently inform the definition of local scenarios that work with context-specific integrated models that, individually, can address only a subset of overall regional complexity. Based on concerns of stakeholders in the semi-arid US Southwest, we prioritized three dimensions that are especially important, yet highly uncertain, for long-term planning: hydroclimatic conditions (increased variability, persistent drought), development patterns (urban consolidation, distributed rural development), and the nature of public institutions (stressed, proactive). Linking across real-world decision contexts and integrated modeling efforts poses challenges of creatively connecting the conceptual models held by both the research and stakeholder communities.

  7. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-10-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  8. The changing nutrition scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Gopalan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The past seven decades have seen remarkable shifts in the nutritional scenario in India. Even up to the 1950s severe forms of malnutrition such as kwashiorkar and pellagra were endemic. As nutritionists were finding home-grown and common-sense solutions for these widespread problems, the population was burgeoning and food was scarce. The threat of widespread household food insecurity and chronic undernutrition was very real. Then came the Green Revolution. Shortages of food grains disappeared within less than a decade and India became self-sufficient in food grain production. But more insidious problems arising from this revolution were looming, and cropping patterns giving low priority to coarse grains and pulses, and monocropping led to depletion of soil nutrients and ′Green Revolution fatigue′. With improved household food security and better access to health care, clinical manifestations of severe malnutrition virtually disappeared. But the decline in chronic undernutrition and "hidden hunger" from micronutrient deficiencies was slow. On the cusp of the new century, an added factor appeared on the nutritional scene in India. With steady urban migration, upward mobility out of poverty, and an increasingly sedentary lifestyle because of improvements in technology and transport, obesity rates began to increase, resulting in a dual burden. Measured in terms of its performance in meeting its Millennium Development Goals, India has fallen short. Despite its continuing high levels of poverty and illiteracy, India has a huge demographic potential in the form of a young population. This advantage must be leveraged by investing in nutrition education, household access to nutritious diets, sanitary environment and a health-promoting lifestyle. This requires co-operation from all the stakeholders, including governments, non government organizations, scientists and the people at large.

  9. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many......) instances of a scenario. The tool is based on control flow analysis of the process calculus LySa and is applied to the Bauer, Berson, and Feiertag protocol where is reveals a previously undocumented problem, which occurs in some scenarios but not in other....

  10. Scenario Planning and Collection Development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giesecke, Joan

    1999-01-01

    Discussion of the future of library collection development and the need for planning focuses on the technique of scenario planning and discusses the results of scenario planning at the University of NebraskaLincoln that examined collection development and digital information. (LRW)

  11. TECHNOLOGICAL SCENARIOS TO THE DEMAND FOR SUGARCANE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Paula Franco Paes Leme Barbosa

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available From the first decade of the 2000s, it is clear that there is an increase in discussions involving sustainability, including the bioenergy issue, to which Brazil has drawn the attention due to advances in the ethanol industry. Advances in engine technology reflected new opportunities for this industry and, according to the Ten-Year Energy Plan for 2019 developed by the Ministry of Mines and Energy, there is an expected increase in demand for ethanol of 90% by 2019 (Brazil, 2010. However, new technologies for the conversion and use of sugarcane and the complex context of this industry add uncertainties to this sector. Aiming to discuss and include the uncertainties on the agenda of this industry, this study proposes to elaborate and discuss prospective scenarios to the demand for sugarcane. Four scenarios with different perspectives of technological advance and market development were elaborated and discussed in the conclusion.

  12. Selecting reasonable future land use scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Allred, W.E.; Smith, R.W. [Idaho National Engineering Lab., Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    1995-12-31

    This paper examines a process to help select the most reasonable future land use scenarios for hazardous waste and/or low-level radioactive waste disposal sites. The process involves evaluating future land use scenarios by applying selected criteria currently used by commercial mortgage companies to determine the feasibility of obtaining a loan for purchasing such land. The basis for the process is that only land use activities for which a loan can be obtained will be considered. To examine the process, a low-level radioactive waste site, the Radioactive Waste Management Complex at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory, is used as an example. The authors suggest that the process is a very precise, comprehensive, and systematic (common sense) approach for determining reasonable future use of land. Implementing such a process will help enhance the planning, decisionmaking, safe management, and cleanup of present and future disposal facilities.

  13. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...... into why scenario planning is a kind of laboratory for futures studies wherein the future is experimented upon....

  14. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spaniol, Matthew Jon; Rowland, Nicholas James

    2017-01-01

    from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  15. Minimality of critical scenarios with linear logic and cutsets

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DK

    all minimal feared scenarios that lead a system in a state of failure, directly from the proof trees of linear logic to ... The proposed approach is based on the concept of minimal cutsets of the fault tree method applied to the ... increased complexity in the design of these ...... in complex distributed systems, Proceedings of the.

  16. Earthquake Hazards Program: Earthquake Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — A scenario represents one realization of a potential future earthquake by assuming a particular magnitude, location, and fault-rupture geometry and estimating...

  17. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...... existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular...

  18. Scenarios and activities (Chapter 1)

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Burns, Mike

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The description and quantification of the shale gas-related activities presented in this Chapter informs the assessment of ecological and social risk addressed in other Chapters. For the Exploration Only scenario, activities that will manifest...

  19. Process Risk Assessment using Dynamic Simulation of Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markert, Frank; Kozin, Igor; Duijm, Nijs Jan

    2016-01-01

    Process plants may be very complex and may combine various processes in close proximity. Hence, the response to accidents may easily grow complex. Traditionally, after gathering and getting acquainted with the plant's technical information, risk is analysed in prescribed steps starting with hazard...... (DES) of the scenarios, which is a Monte Carlo type method. The paper describes the application of DES to conduct the analysis part of a risk assessment that enables better time resolution in the modelling of the specific scenarios, simulate the interactions between concurrent chains of events under...... the hazardous scenarios, and produce probabilistic risk measures. The outcome provides possibilities to structure the results in a comprehensive way. Scenarios with severe consequences can be ‘played back’ to learn from them and can be animated, which apart from the learning effect provides a new way...

  20. Le metodologie dello scenario parecipato

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2006-01-01

    The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected......The article presents paradigm, historical background and framework of participatory scenario planning. In addition an example of the method used in Malaysia is described and the possible strenghts and weaknesses is reflected...

  1. Out of Africa: a molecular perspective on the introduction of yellow fever virus into the Americas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliet E Bryant

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Yellow fever virus (YFV remains the cause of severe morbidity and mortality in South America and Africa. To determine the evolutionary history of this important reemerging pathogen, we performed a phylogenetic analysis of the largest YFV data set compiled to date, representing the prM/E gene region from 133 viral isolates sampled from 22 countries over a period of 76 years. We estimate that the currently circulating strains of YFV arose in Africa within the last 1,500 years and emerged in the Americas following the slave trade approximately 300-400 years ago. These viruses then spread westwards across the continent and persist there to this day in the jungles of South America. We therefore illustrate how gene sequence data can be used to test hypotheses of viral dispersal and demographics, and document the role of human migration in the spread of infectious disease.

  2. Out of Africa: High aerosol concentrations in the upper troposphere over Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Heintzenberg

    2003-05-01

    Full Text Available In the year 2000, six flights (three southbound and three northbound of the CARIBIC project were conducted between Germany and two destinations in the southern hemisphere (Windhoek, Namibia and Cape Town, South Africa. In the present report, results on particle number concentrations are discussed in three size ranges (>4 nm, >12 nm, and >18 nm particle diameter during the unique transequatorial Africa flights. The flights covered a total of about 80 h in May, July, and December. Thus, no claim can be made for long-term representativeness of the aerosol data. Nevertheless, they are the first upper systematic tropospheric transequatorial aerosol profiles over Africa. The average aerosol results show a broad maximum, roughly symmetrical to the equator, which compares well in latitudinal extent to a maximum of CO concentrations measured on the same flights. This export of continental surface aerosol to the upper troposphere will be dispersed on a global scale both with the easterly flow near the equator and with the westerlies in the adjacent subtropical regions. There was strong evidence of recent new particle formation before aerosol arrival at flight level, in particular during the time periods between 9:00 and 13:00 local time over Africa. Direct and indirect climate effects of the respective particulate matter remain to be investigated by future flights with the ongoing extension of the CARIBIC payload towards size-resolved measurements above 100 nm particle diameter. At the same time global chemical transport models and aerosol dynamics models need to be extended to be able to reproduce the CARIBIC findings over Africa.

  3. Out of Africa:Miocene Dispersal, Vicariance, and Extinction within Hyacinthaceae Subfamily Urgineoideae

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Syed Shujait Ali; Martin Pfosser; Wolfgang Wetschnig; Mario MartnezAzorn; Manuel B. Crespo; Yan Yu

    2013-01-01

    Disjunct distribution patterns in plant lineages are usually explained according to three hypotheses:vicariance, geodispersal, and long-distance dispersal. The role of these hypotheses is tested in Urgineoideae (Hyacinthaceae), a subfamily disjunctly distributed in Africa, Madagascar, India, and the Mediterranean region. The potential ancestral range, dispersal routes, and factors responsible for the current distribution in Urgineoideae are investigated using divergence time estimations. Urgineoideae originated in Southern Africa approximately 48.9 Mya. Two independent dispersal events in the Western Mediterranean region possibly occurred during Early Oligocene and Miocene (29.9-8.5 Mya) via Eastern and Northwestern Africa. A dispersal from Northwestern Africa to India could have occurred between 16.3 and 7.6 Mya. Vicariance and extinction events occurred approximately 21.6 Mya. Colonization of Madagascar occurred between 30.6 and 16.6 Mya, after a single transoceanic dispersal event from Southern Africa. The current disjunct distributions of Urgineoideae are not satisfactorily explained by Gondwana fragmentation or dispersal via boreotropical forests, due to the younger divergence time estimates. The flattened winged seeds of Urgineoideae could have played an important role in long-distance dispersal by strong winds and big storms, whereas geodispersal could have also occurred from Southern Africa to Asia and the Mediterranean region via the so-called arid and high-altitude corridors.

  4. Out of Africa: Fossils shed light on the origin of the hoatzin, an iconic Neotropic bird

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayr, Gerald; Alvarenga, Herculano; Mourer-Chauviré, Cécile

    2011-11-01

    We describe the earliest fossils of the enigmatic avian taxon Opisthocomiformes (hoatzins) from the Oligo-Miocene (22-24 mya) of Brazil. The bones, a humerus, scapula and coracoid, closely resemble those of the extant hoatzin, Opisthocomus hoazin. The very similar osteology of the pectoral girdle in the new Brazilian fossil compared to the extant O. hoazin, in which it reflects peculiar feeding adaptations, may indicate that hoatzins had already evolved their highly specialized feeding behavior by the mid-Cenozoic. We further show that Namibiavis senutae from the early Miocene of Namibia is another, previously misclassified representative of Opisthocomiformes, which documents that the extant Neotropic distribution of hoatzins is relictual. Because of the weak flight capabilities of hoatzins, their occurrence on both sides of the South Atlantic is of particular biogeographic interest. We detail that this distribution pattern is best explained by dispersal from Africa to South America, and that Opisthocomiformes provide the first example of transatlantic rafting among birds.

  5. Upper Pleistocene Human Dispersals out of Africa: A Review of the Current State of the Debate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyin, Amanuel

    2011-01-01

    Although there is a general consensus on African origin of early modern humans, there is disagreement about how and when they dispersed to Eurasia. This paper reviews genetic and Middle Stone Age/Middle Paleolithic archaeological literature from northeast Africa, Arabia, and the Levant to assess the timing and geographic backgrounds of Upper Pleistocene human colonization of Eurasia. At the center of the discussion lies the question of whether eastern Africa alone was the source of Upper Pleistocene human dispersals into Eurasia or were there other loci of human expansions outside of Africa? The reviewed literature hints at two modes of early modern human colonization of Eurasia in the Upper Pleistocene: (i) from multiple Homo sapiens source populations that had entered Arabia, South Asia, and the Levant prior to and soon after the onset of the Last Interglacial (MIS-5), (ii) from a rapid dispersal out of East Africa via the Southern Route (across the Red Sea basin), dating to ~74–60 kya. PMID:21716744

  6. Upper Pleistocene Human Dispersals out of Africa: A Review of the Current State of the Debate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanuel Beyin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although there is a general consensus on African origin of early modern humans, there is disagreement about how and when they dispersed to Eurasia. This paper reviews genetic and Middle Stone Age/Middle Paleolithic archaeological literature from northeast Africa, Arabia, and the Levant to assess the timing and geographic backgrounds of Upper Pleistocene human colonization of Eurasia. At the center of the discussion lies the question of whether eastern Africa alone was the source of Upper Pleistocene human dispersals into Eurasia or were there other loci of human expansions outside of Africa? The reviewed literature hints at two modes of early modern human colonization of Eurasia in the Upper Pleistocene: (i from multiple Homo sapiens source populations that had entered Arabia, South Asia, and the Levant prior to and soon after the onset of the Last Interglacial (MIS-5, (ii from a rapid dispersal out of East Africa via the Southern Route (across the Red Sea basin, dating to ~74–60 kya.

  7. The Southern Route "Out of Africa": Evidence for an Early Expansion of Modern Humans into Arabia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Simon J. Armitage; Sabah A. Jasim; Anthony E. Marks; Adrian G. Parker; Vitaly I. Usik; Hans-Peter Uerpmann

    2011-01-01

    .... The tool kit found at Jebel Faya has affinities to the late Middle Stone Age in northeast Africa, indicating that technological innovation was not necessary to facilitate migration into Arabia...

  8. Out of Africa, but how and when? The case of hamadryas baboons (Papio hamadryas).

    OpenAIRE

    Kopp, Gisela H.; Roos, Christian; Butynski, Thomas M.; Wildman, Derek E.; Alagaili, Abdulaziz N.; Groeneveld, Linn F.; Zinner, Dietmar

    2014-01-01

    Many species of Arabian mammals are considered to be of Afrotropical origin and for most of them the Red Sea has constituted an obstacle for dispersal since the Miocene-Pliocene transition. There are two possible routes, the 'northern' and the 'southern', for terrestrial mammals (including humans) to move between Africa and Arabia. The 'northern route', crossing the Sinai Peninsula, is confirmed for several taxa by an extensive fossil record, especially from northern Egypt and the Levant, whe...

  9. Upper Pleistocene Human Dispersals out of Africa: A Review of the Current State of the Debate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyin, Amanuel

    2011-01-01

    Although there is a general consensus on African origin of early modern humans, there is disagreement about how and when they dispersed to Eurasia. This paper reviews genetic and Middle Stone Age/Middle Paleolithic archaeological literature from northeast Africa, Arabia, and the Levant to assess the timing and geographic backgrounds of Upper Pleistocene human colonization of Eurasia. At the center of the discussion lies the question of whether eastern Africa alone was the source of Upper Pleistocene human dispersals into Eurasia or were there other loci of human expansions outside of Africa? The reviewed literature hints at two modes of early modern human colonization of Eurasia in the Upper Pleistocene: (i) from multiple Homo sapiens source populations that had entered Arabia, South Asia, and the Levant prior to and soon after the onset of the Last Interglacial (MIS-5), (ii) from a rapid dispersal out of East Africa via the Southern Route (across the Red Sea basin), dating to ~74-60 kya.

  10. The Arabian Cradle: Mitochondrial Relicts of the First Steps along the Southern Route out of Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Fernandes, Verónica; Alshamali, Farida; Alves, Marco; Costa, Marta D.; Pereira, Joana B.; Silva, Nuno M.; Cherni, Lotfi; Harich, Nourdin; Cerny, Viktor; Soares,Pedro; Richards, Martin B.; Pereira, Luísa

    2012-01-01

    A major unanswered question regarding the dispersal of modern humans around the world concerns the geographical site of the first human steps outside of Africa. The “southern coastal route” model predicts that the early stages of the dispersal took place when people crossed the Red Sea to southern Arabia, but genetic evidence has hitherto been tenuous. We have addressed this question by analyzing the three minor west-Eurasian haplogroups, N1, N2, and X. These lineages branch directly from the...

  11. Upper Pleistocene Human Dispersals out of Africa: A Review of the Current State of the Debate

    OpenAIRE

    Amanuel Beyin

    2011-01-01

    Although there is a general consensus on African origin of early modern humans, there is disagreement about how and when they dispersed to Eurasia. This paper reviews genetic and Middle Stone Age/Middle Paleolithic archaeological literature from northeast Africa, Arabia, and the Levant to assess the timing and geographic backgrounds of Upper Pleistocene human colonization of Eurasia. At the center of the discussion lies the question of whether eastern Africa alone was the source of Upper Plei...

  12. Modeling a complex system of multipurpose reservoirs under prospective scenarios (hydrology, water uses, water management): the case of the Durance River basin (South Eastern France, 12 800 km2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteil, Céline; Hendrickx, Frédéric; Samie, René; Sauquet, Eric

    2015-04-01

    The Durance River and its main tributary, the Verdon River, are two major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Three large dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon and Sainte-Croix) were built on their streams during the second half of the 20th century for multiple purposes. Stored water is used for hydropower, recreational, industry, drinking water and irrigation. Flows are partly diverted to feed areas outside the basin. On average 30 plants located in the Durance and Verdon valleys currently produce a total of 600 million kWh per year, equal to the annual residential consumption of a city with over 2.5 million inhabitants. The Southern part of France has been recently affected by severe droughts (2003, 2007 and 2011) and the rules for water allocation and reservoir management are now questioned particularly in the light of global change. The objective of the research project named "R²D²-2050" was to assess water availability and risks of water shortage in the mid-21st century by taking into account changes in both climate and water management. Therefore, a multi-model multi-scenario approach was considered to simulate regional climate, water resources and water demands under present-day (over the 1980-2009 baseline period) and under future conditions (over the 2036-2065 period). In addition, a model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operating rules of the three dams. This model was calibrated to simulate water released from reservoir under constraints imposed by current day water allocation rules (e.g. downstream water requirements for irrigation, minimum water levels in the reservoirs during summer time for recreational purposes). Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water from the Durance River basin. Results suggest an increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation, snowmelt processes

  13. Reality based scenarios facilitate knowledge network development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manning, J; Broughton, V; McConnell, E A

    1995-03-01

    The challenge in nursing education is to create a learning environment that enables students to learn new knowledge, access previously acquired information from a variety of disciplines, and apply this newly constructed knowledge to the complex and constantly changing world of practice. Faculty at the University of South Australia, School of Nursing, City Campus describe the use of reality based scenarios to acquire domain-specific knowledge and develop well connected associative knowledge networks, both of which facilitate theory based practice and the student's transition to the role of registered nurse.

  14. Future scenarios to inspire innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Smedt, Peter; Borch, Kristian; Fuller, Ted

    2013-01-01

    . Due to the social dynamics of innovation, new socio-technical subsystems are emerging, however there is lack of exploitation of novel ideas and sustainable solutions to address these grand challenges. In this paper we argue that issues of how knowledge is represented can have a part in this lack...... the grand challenges. By analyzing several scenario cases, elements of good practices and principles on how to strengthen innovation systems through future scenarios are identified. This is needed because innovation itself needs to be oriented along more sustainable pathways enabling transformations...

  15. NEC-2020 emission reduction scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Slentø, Erik; Nielsen, Ole-Kenneth; Hoffmann, Leif

    The upcoming NEC-2020 EU directive sets up emission ceilings for NOX, SO2, NH3, NMVOC and PM in order to meet the environmental exposure targets of the Thematic Strategy. This report contains an assessment of intermediary emission reduction scenarios for Denmark, computed by the GAINS model 2007......, which serves as the basis for the pending negotiations in EU. The assessment is brought up to date by including a brief evaluation of the new reduction scenarios published in 2008, founding the European Commission NEC-2020 directive proposal....

  16. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  17. Scenario Based Network Infrastructure Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Thomas Phillip; Pedersen, Jens Myrup; Madsen, Ole Brun

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents a method for IT infrastructure planning that take into account very long term developments in usages. The method creates a scenario for a final, time independent stage in the planning process. The method abstracts relevant modelling factors from available information...

  18. Program Analysis Scenarios in Rascal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.A. Hills (Mark); P. Klint (Paul); J.J. Vinju (Jurgen); F. Durán

    2012-01-01

    textabstractRascal is a meta programming language focused on the implementation of domain-specific languages and on the rapid construction of tools for software analysis and software transformation. In this paper we focus on the use of Rascal for software analysis. We illustrate a range of scenarios

  19. Particle production in Ekpyrotic scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hipólito-Ricaldi, W.S. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Departamento de Ciências Naturais, Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo,Rodovia BR 101 Norte, km. 60, Campus de São Mateus, CEP 29932-540,São Mateus, Espirito Santo (Brazil); Brandenberger, Robert [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada); Institute for Theoretical Studies, ETH Zürich,CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland); Ferreira, Elisa G.M.; Graef, L.L. [Physics Department, McGill University,Montreal, QC, H3A 2T8 (Canada)

    2016-11-09

    We consider Parker particle production in the Ekpyrotic scenario (in particular in the New Ekpyrotic model) and show that the density of particles produced by the end of the phase of Ekpyrotic contraction can be sufficient to lead to a hot state of matter after the bounce. Hence, no separate reheating mechanism is necessary.

  20. Scenario Writing: A Therapeutic Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haddock, Billy D.

    1989-01-01

    Introduces scenario writing as useful therapeutic technique. Presents case study of woman in midst of divorce and custody fight to illustrate context in which technique was applied. Suggests additional applications. Concludes that good response is more likely for clients who possess good writing skills although other clients may use their own…

  1. Future Scenarios and Environmental Education

    OpenAIRE

    Kopnina, H.N.

    2014-01-01

    This article explores a number of questions about visions of the future and their implications for environmental education (EE). If the future were known, what kind of actions would be needed to maintain the positive aspects and reverse the negative ones? How could these actions be translated into the aims of EE? Three future scenarios are discussed: the limits to growth (the great tragedy and demise); sustainable development and ecological modernization (hope and innovation); and the Anthrop...

  2. Scenarios and Strategies for Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-11-15

    In 2011, IRENA will start developing scenarios and strategies for Africa. This is a pilot study for a project that will ultimately encompass the whole world. The selection of Africa first indicates the priority that the IRENA work programme places on the continent. In the framework of the 2011 IRENA work programme, the analysis of scenarios and strategies will feed into the renewables readiness assessment, which will assess policy priorities and best practices in renewable energy policy-making. This, in turn, will be the basis for financing investment and capacity building activities. Energy policy advice must consider issues, such as the structure of energy supply and demand, the past and future energy trends, renewable energy resources, energy economics and technology access. Scenarios and strategies are key tools for such an analysis. Regional and national differences must be considered and individual sectors and end-use categories further analysed. These include power generation, cooking, heating, industrial process heat, and transport. Urban and rural solutions will be dealt with separately, as well as centralised and decentralised solutions. The analysis will cover issues, such as potentials, technology, supply chains and investment needs.

  3. Clean energy scenarios for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saddler, H. [Energy Strategies Pty Ltd., Manuka (Australia); Diesendorf, M. [University of New South Wales, Sydney (Australia). Institute of Environmental Studies; Denniss, R. [Parliament House, Canberra (Australia). Office of Senator Bob Brown

    2007-02-15

    Australia, a major producer and user of coal, has the highest per capita greenhouse gas emissions in the industrialised world. This study investigates whether in theory such a 'fossil-fuel dependent' country could achieve a 50% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from stationary energy by 2040, compared with its 2001 emissions. To do this scenarios are developed, using a combination of forecasting and backcasting methods, under conditions of continuing economic growth and a restriction to the use of existing commercial technologies with small improvements. The principal scenario achieves the above target by implementing on the demand-side a medium-level of efficient energy use and substantial solar hot water together with a supply side combination of mainly natural gas, bioenergy and wind power. In doing so the scenario also achieves a 78% reduction in CO{sub 2} emissions from electricity. Within the large uncertainties in future prices, it is possible that the economic savings from efficient energy use could pay for all or a large part of the additional costs of renewable energy. (author)

  4. Scenarios for the LHC Upgrade

    CERN Document Server

    Scandale, Walter

    2008-01-01

    The projected lifetime of the LHC low-beta quadrupoles, the evolution of the statistical error halving time, and the physics potential all call for an LHC luminosity upgrade by the middle of the coming decade. In the framework of the CARE-HHH network three principal scenarios have been developed for increasing the LHC peak luminosity by more than a factor of 10, to values above 1035 cm−2s−1. All scenarios imply a rebuilding of the high-luminosity interaction regions (IRs) in combination with a consistent change of beam parameters. However, their respective features, bunch structures, IR layouts, merits and challenges, and luminosity variation with β∗ differ substantially. In all scenarios luminosity leveling during a store would be advantageous for the physics experiments. An injector upgrade must complement the upgrade measures in the LHC proper in order to provide the beam intensity and brightness needed as well as to reduce the LHC turnaround time for higher integrated luminosity.

  5. Using scenarios for dissemination - Experiences from the IMS GLOBEMEN project

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ollus, Martin; Hartel, Ingo; Tølle, Martin;

    2002-01-01

    due to the complexities of the interdisciplinary field addressed. As an instrument for communication to the non-specialist public the IMS GLOBEMEN project produces a web-based scenario as part of its dissemination activities. It is aimed at giving a practical overview of specific challenges...

  6. Sociotechnical scenarios for the Austrian energy system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wächter Petra

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gases by 80%, as demanded by the IPCC, is one of the great long-term challenges facing our societies today and will doubtless require transformative changes to current energy regimes. Large-scale system transitions such as the one envisaged for the global energy system in the next 30–40 years can only be realized through complex processes of change involving global, regional, national, and local levels. In this paper we use sociotechnical scenario analysis to contribute ideas for the transformative change of the current Austrian energy system over the long term and to identify some of the particular policy measures, as well as structural changes and broader shifts in perspective, that would be necessary to deal with such challenges. There is less emphasis on the technical issues involved than on the socio-economic and governance requirements such a shift would demand. We also explain our experiences with the sociotechnical scenario process and its outcomes. In particular, we identify examples of some critical issues and opportunities within one of the identified key action fields and discuss their various implications for energy policy and everyday practices.

  7. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  8. Multiobjective optimization for nuclear fleet evolution scenarios using COSI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Freynet David

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of various fleet evolution options on material inventories and flux in fuel cycle and waste can be analysed by means of transition scenario studies. The COSI code is currently simulating chronologically scenarios whose parameters are fully defined by the user and is coupled with the CESAR depletion code. As the interactions among reactors and fuel cycle facilities can be complex, and the ways in which they may be configured are many, the development of optimization methodology could improve scenario studies. The optimization problem definition needs to list: (i criteria (e.g. saving natural resources and minimizing waste production; (ii variables (scenario parameters related to reprocessing, reactor operation, installed power distribution, etc.; (iii constraints making scenarios industrially feasible. The large number of scenario calculations needed to solve an optimization problem can be time-consuming and hardly achievable; therefore, it requires the shortening of the COSI computation time. Given that CESAR depletion calculations represent about 95% of this computation time, CESAR surrogate models have been developed and coupled with COSI. Different regression models are compared to estimate CESAR outputs: first- and second-order polynomial regressions, Gaussian process and artificial neural network. This paper is about a first optimization study of a transition scenario from the current French nuclear fleet to a Sodium Fast Reactors fleet as defined in the frame of the 2006 French Act for waste management. The present article deals with obtaining the optimal scenarios and validating the methodology implemented, i.e. the coupling between the simulation software COSI, depletion surrogate models and a genetic algorithm optimization method.

  9. Europa Explorer Operational Scenarios Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lock, Robert E.; Pappalardo, Robert T.; Clark, Karla B.

    2008-01-01

    In 2007, NASA conducted four advanced mission concept studies for outer planets targets: Europa, Ganymede, Titan and Enceladus. The studies were conducted in close cooperation with the planetary science community. Of the four, the Europa Explorer Concept Study focused on refining mission options, science trades and implementation details for a potential flagship mission to Europa in the 2015 timeframe. A science definition team (SDT) was appointed by NASA to guide the study. A JPL-led engineering team worked closely with the science team to address 3 major focus areas: 1) credible cost estimates, 2) rationale and logical discussion of radiation risk and mitigation approaches, and 3) better definition and exploration of science operational scenario trade space. This paper will address the methods and results of the collaborative process used to develop Europa Explorer operations scenarios. Working in concert with the SDT, and in parallel with the SDT's development of a science value matrix, key mission capabilities and constraints were challenged by the science and engineering members of the team. Science goals were advanced and options were considered for observation scenarios. Data collection and return strategies were tested via simulation, and mission performance was estimated and balanced with flight and ground system resources and science priorities. The key to this successful collaboration was a concurrent development environment in which all stakeholders could rapidly assess the feasibility of strategies for their success in the full system context. Issues of science and instrument compatibility, system constraints, and mission opportunities were treated analytically and objectively leading to complementary strategies for observation and data return. Current plans are that this approach, as part of the system engineering process, will continue as the Europa Explorer Concept Study moves toward becoming a development project.

  10. Scenarios for the future; Framtidsscenarier

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haegermark, H.; Bergmark, M.

    1995-06-01

    This project aims primarily to give a basis for the joint R and D program for the Swedish electric utility industry, in the form of pictures of the future up to 2020. The work was performed during four seminars in a group of managers and R and D planners. The four scenarios differ mainly in the assumptions of high or low economic growth and on market or political rule. Assumptions on essential uncertainties about the future have been combined in a consistent manner, e.g. on the structure of the utility industry, the role of nuclear power, the importance of the greenhouse gas issue, the influence of new technology developments and on changes of values in society. Certain other development appear in all scenarios, e.g. the impact of information technology throughout society, the internationalization of business in general and industrial production in particular, considerations for the environment and care for natural resources. The four scenarios are: `Technology on the throne` (market rule/high growth); `Intense competition` (market rule/low growth); `Monopoly takes over` (political rule/high growth); and `Green local society` (political rule/low growth). Some of the important factors pointed out by the study are: Increased customer mobility between regions and countries; The impact of information technology; Societal value changes; Sustainable development as an important driving force; Structure of the utility industry. Diversifying into new services. New players; Access to knowledge and competence; Ways for handling the greenhouse gas problem; Preparedness for nuclear power phase-out. 12 figs, 6 tabs

  11. Spent fuel receipt scenarios study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballou, L.B.; Montan, D.N.; Revelli, M.A.

    1990-09-01

    This study reports on the results of an assignment from the DOE Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management to evaluate of the effects of different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel on the potential performance of the waste packages in the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level waste repository. The initial evaluations were performed and an interim letter report was prepared during the fall of 1988. Subsequently, the scope of work was expanded and additional analyses were conducted in 1989. This report combines the results of the two phases of the activity. This study is a part of a broader effort to investigate the options available to the DOE and the nuclear utilities for selection of spent fuel for acceptance into the Federal Waste Management System for disposal. Each major element of the system has evaluated the effects of various options on its own operations, with the objective of providing the basis for performing system-wide trade-offs and determining an optimum acceptance scenario. Therefore, this study considers different scenarios for receipt of spent fuel by the repository only from the narrow perspective of their effect on the very-near-field temperatures in the repository following permanent closure. This report is organized into three main sections. The balance of this section is devoted to a statement of the study objective, a summary of the assumptions. The second section of the report contains a discussion of the major elements of the study. The third section summarizes the results of the study and draws some conclusions from them. The appendices include copies of the waste acceptance schedule and the existing and projected spent fuel inventory that were used in the study. 10 refs., 27 figs.

  12. Games and Scenarios for Real-Time System Validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Li, Shuhao

    This thesis presents research on the validation of real-time embedded software systems in the context of model-based development. The thesis proposes scenario-based and game-theoretic approaches to system analysis, verification, synthesis and testing to address the challenges that arise from...... the system characteristics of environment uncertainties, complex process interactions, quantitative timing constraints, partial observability and combinations thereof. We make timed extensions to live sequence chart (LSC) such that the inter-process behaviors and scenario-based requirements of concurrent...

  13. Scenarios for coastal vulnerability assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Hay, John; Wong, Poh Poh; Nurse, Leonard; Wolanski, Eric; McLusky, Donald S.

    2011-01-01

    Coastal vulnerability assessments tend to focus mainly on climate change and especially on sea-level rise. Assessment of the influence of nonclimatic environmental change or socioeconomic change is less well developed and these drivers are often completely ignored. Given that the most profound coastal changes of the twentieth century due to nonclimate drivers are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission. It may result in not only overstating the importance of climate change but also overlooking significant interactions of climate change and other drivers. To support the development of policies relating to climate change and coastal management, integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the effects of all the relevant drivers. This chapter explores the development of scenarios (or "plausible futures") of relevant climate and nonclimate drivers that can be used for coastal analysis, with an emphasis on the nonclimate drivers. It shows the importance of analyzing the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise in a broader context of coastal change and all its drivers. This will improve the analysis of impacts, key vulnerabilities, and adaptation needs and, hence, inform climate and coastal policy. Stakeholder engagement is important in the development of scenarios, and the underlying assumptions need to be explicit, transparent, and open to scientific debate concerning their uncertainties/realism and likelihood.

  14. Scenario Development for Information Operations (IO) Experimentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-07-10

    country called DYSLEXIA , whose government has been making threats to invade and appropriate a region of its neighbouring country, ABSTEMIA, which is...Network Measures and Metrics 18 Conclusion Scenarios - Tailoring, Framework, Families of Scenario Experiments - Measures, Humans, Objectives Networks

  15. Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

    2006-12-01

    The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

  16. The Narrative Aspect of Scenario Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2008-01-01

    The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria are sugges......The application of narrative scenarios in engineering or socio-technical systems provides an important link between general ideas and specification of technical system requirements. The chapter explores how the narrative approach can enrich the scenario 'skeleton. In addition, criteria...

  17. Measuring Workload Differences Between Short-term Memory and Long-term Memory Scenarios in a Simulated Flight Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, S. L.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1984-01-01

    Four highly experienced Air Force pilots each flew four simulated flight scenarios. Two scenarios required a great deal of aircraft maneuvering. The other two scenarios involved less maneuvering, but required remembering a number of items. All scenarios were designed to be equaly challenging. Pilot's Subjective Ratings for Activity-level, Complexity, Difficulty, Stress, and Workload were higher for the manuevering scenarios than the memory scenarios. At a moderate workload level, keeping the pilots active resulted in better aircraft control. When required to monitor and remember items, aircraft control tended to decrease. Pilots tended to weigh information about the spatial positioning and performance of their aircraft more heavily than other items.

  18. Development and Change through Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chermack, Thomas J.; Walton, John S.

    2004-01-01

    This paper examines the role of scenario planning as a development and change intervention. To do so, this article provides an overview of scenario planning and an overview of development and change in organizations. The article then builds on the philosophical orientations of development and change through scenario planning introducing the…

  19. An Interacting Two-Fluid Scenario for Quintom Dark Energy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Xin

    2005-01-01

    The Quintom dark energy is a proposal that explains the recent observations that mildly favor the equation of state of dark energy w crossing -1 near the past. The Quintom model is often constructed by two scalar fields, where one is the quintessence field and another is the phantom field. The cosmological implication of the coupling of the two fields of the dark energy is out of question worth investigating. However, the consideration of the coupling in the field scenario is somewhat complex thus we propose an interacting two-fluid Quintom scenario for simplicity. The interaction between the two components is parametrized by a constant η in this scenario. The cosmological implications of this parametrization are investigated in detail in this paper. Also, a diagnostic for this model is performed by using the statefinder pairs {s, r} and {q, r}.

  20. Relating Admissibility Standards for Digital Evidence to Attack Scenario Reconstruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changwei Liu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Attackers tend to use complex techniques such as combining multi-step, multi-stage attack with anti-forensic tools to make it difficult to find incriminating evidence and reconstruct attack scenarios that can stand up to the expected level of evidence admissibility in a court of law. As a solution, we propose to integrate the legal aspects of evidence correlation into a Prolog based reasoner to address the admissibility requirements by creating most probable attack scenarios that satisfy admissibility standards for substantiating evidence. Using a prototype implementation, we show how evidence extracted by using forensic tools can be integrated with legal reasoning to reconstruct network attack scenarios. Our experiment shows this implemented reasoner can provide pre-estimate of admissibility on a digital crime towards an attacked network.

  1. Quantitative Verification and Synthesis of Attack-Defence Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming; Parker, David

    2016-01-01

    Attack-defence trees are a powerful technique for formally evaluating attack-defence scenarios. They represent in an intuitive, graphical way the interaction between an attacker and a defender who compete in order to achieve conflicting objectives. We propose a novel framework for the formal...... analysis of quantitative properties of complex attack-defence scenarios, using an extension of attack-defence trees which models temporal ordering of actions and allows explicit dependencies in the strategies adopted by attackers and defenders. We adopt a game-theoretic approach, translating attack......-defence trees to two-player stochastic games, and then employ probabilistic model checking techniques to formally analyse these models. This provides a means to both verify formally specified security properties of the attack-defence scenarios and, dually, to synthesise strategies for attackers or defenders...

  2. Blast wave injury prediction models for complex scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teland, J.A.; Doormaal, J.C.A.M. van

    2012-01-01

    Blast waves from explosions can cause lethal injuries to humans. Development of injury criteria has been ongoing for many years, but with the main focus on free field conditions. However, with terrorist actions as a new threat, explosions in urban areas have become of much more interest. Urban areas

  3. Using scenarios to design complex technology-enhanced learning environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, Anthonius J.M.; Weinberger, A.; Girault, I.; Kluge, A.W.; Lazonder, Adrianus W.; Pedaste, M.; Ludvigsen, S.; Ney, M.; Wasson, B.; Wichmann, A.; Geraedts, C.; Giemza, A.; Hovardas, T.; Julien, R.; van Joolingen, Wouter; Lejeune, A.M.; Manoli, C.; Matteman, Y.; Sarapuu, T.; Verkade, A.; Vold, V.; Zacharia, Z.

    2012-01-01

    Science Created by You (SCY) learning environments are computer-based environments in which students learn about science topics in the context of addressing a socio-scientific problem. Along their way to a solution for this problem students produce many types of intermediate products or learning obj

  4. Blast wave injury prediction models for complex scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Teland, J.A.; Doormaal, J.C.A.M. van

    2012-01-01

    Blast waves from explosions can cause lethal injuries to humans. Development of injury criteria has been ongoing for many years, but with the main focus on free field conditions. However, with terrorist actions as a new threat, explosions in urban areas have become of much more interest. Urban areas

  5. The ShakeOut Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Lucile M.; Bernknopf, Richard; Cox, Dale; Goltz, James; Hudnut, Kenneth; Mileti, Dennis; Perry, Suzanne; Ponti, Daniel; Porter, Keith; Reichle, Michael; Seligson, Hope; Shoaf, Kimberley; Treiman, Jerry; Wein, Anne

    2008-01-01

    This is the initial publication of the results of a cooperative project to examine the implications of a major earthquake in southern California. The study comprised eight counties: Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura. Its results will be used as the basis of an emergency response and preparedness exercise, the Great Southern California ShakeOut, and for this purpose we defined our earthquake as occurring at 10:00 a.m. on November 13, 2008. As members of the southern California community use the ShakeOut Scenario to plan and execute the exercise, we anticipate discussion and feedback. This community input will be used to refine our assessment and will lead to a formal publication in early 2009. Our goal in the ShakeOut Scenario is to identify the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California and in so doing, enable the users of our results to identify what they can change now?before the earthquake?to avoid catastrophic impact after the inevitable earthquake occurs. To do so, we had to determine the physical damages (casualties and losses) caused by the earthquake and the impact of those damages on the region?s social and economic systems. To do this, we needed to know about the earthquake ground shaking and fault rupture. So we first constructed an earthquake, taking all available earthquake research information, from trenching and exposed evidence of prehistoric earthquakes, to analysis of instrumental recordings of large earthquakes and the latest theory in earthquake source physics. We modeled a magnitude (M) 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault, a plausible event on the fault most likely to produce a major earthquake. This information was then fed forward into the rest of the ShakeOut Scenario. The damage impacts of the scenario earthquake were estimated using both HAZUS-MH and expert opinion through 13 special studies and 6 expert panels, and fall into four

  6. Development scenario for laser fusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

    1976-03-30

    This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the early 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.

  7. Tactical decision games - developing scenario-based training for decision-making in distributed teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lauche, K.; Crichton, M.; Bayerl, P.S.

    2009-01-01

    Team training should reflect the increasing complexity of decision-making environments. Guidelines for scenario-based training were adopted for a distributed setting and tested in a pilot training session with a distributed team in the offshore oil industry. Participants valued the scenario as chall

  8. Lunar transportation scenarios utilising the Space Elevator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Kilian A

    2005-01-01

    The Space Elevator (SE) concept has begun to receive an increasing amount of attention within the space community over the past couple of years and is no longer widely dismissed as pure science fiction. In light of the renewed interest in a, possibly sustained, human presence on the Moon and the fact that transportation and logistics form the bottleneck of many conceivable lunar missions, it is interesting to investigate what role the SE could eventually play in implementing an efficient Earth to Moon transportation system. The elevator allows vehicles to ascend from Earth and be injected into a trans-lunar trajectory without the use of chemical thrusters, thus eliminating gravity loss, aerodynamic loss and the need of high thrust multistage launch systems. Such a system therefore promises substantial savings of propellant and structural mass and could greatly increase the efficiency of Earth to Moon transportation. This paper analyzes different elevator-based trans-lunar transportation scenarios and characterizes them in terms of a number of benchmark figures. The transportation scenarios include direct elevator-launched trans-lunar trajectories, elevator launched trajectories via L1 and L2, as well as launch from an Earth-based elevator and subsequent rendezvous with lunar elevators placed either on the near or on the far side of the Moon. The benchmark figures by which the different transfer options are characterized and evaluated include release radius (RR), required delta v, transfer times as well as other factors such as accessibility of different lunar latitudes, frequency of launch opportunities and mission complexity. The performances of the different lunar transfer options are compared with each other as well as with the performance of conventional mission concepts, represented by Apollo.

  9. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  10. Using Participatory Scenarios to Stimulate Social Learning for Collaborative Sustainable Development

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kris A. Johnson; Genya Dana; Nicholas R. Jordan; Kathy J. Draeger; Anne Kapuscinski; Laura K. Schmitt Olabisi; Peter B. Reich

    2012-01-01

    ... capabilities but also learning and adaptation. Scenarios are a useful tool for grappling with the uncertainty and complexity of social-ecological challenges because they enable participants to build adaptive capacity through the contemplation...

  11. Using Participatory Scenario Planning to Identify Ecosystem Services in Changing Landscapes

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rebecka Malinga; Line J Gordon; Regina Lindborg; Graham Jewitt

    2013-01-01

    .... In this study we examine whether scenario development, a tool for dealing with uncertainties and complexities of the future, gives important insights into the selection of ecosystem services in changing landscapes...

  12. Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

    2008-01-01

    A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

  13. Commercial Mobile Alert Service (CMAS) Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-01

    Nord 2009]. Figure 1 shows the relationship between mission thread scenarios and QA scenarios. Mission thread scenarios contain steps that...Execute Health Severe Immediate Observed Flash Flood "No Special Handling" Actual Assess Meteorological Severe Expected Likely Tsunami "No Special...projects.shtm#6 (2011). CMU/SEI-2012-SR-020 | 49 [ Nord 2009] Nord , R.; Bergey, J.; Blanchette, S.; & Klein, M. “The Impact of Conducting ATAM

  14. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Pozdeeva, E O

    2016-01-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  15. Renormalization-group improved inflationary scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozdeeva, E. O.; Vernov, S. Yu.

    2017-03-01

    The possibility to construct an inflationary scenario for renormalization-group improved potentials corresponding to the Higgs sector of quantum field models is investigated. Taking into account quantum corrections to the renormalization-group potential which sums all leading logs of perturbation theory is essential for a successful realization of the inflationary scenario, with very reasonable parameters values. The scalar electrodynamics inflationary scenario thus obtained are seen to be in good agreement with the most recent observational data.

  16. Future mobile internet services : business model scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    In this report we explore future business models for mobile internet services. Based on four different scenarios, we sketch out how future conditions in the mobile industry may influence value propositions, value networks, and financial aspects of mobile services. The four scenarios vary along two dimensions - technological development and social identity, and different combinations of these two dimensions provide us with four scenarios where quite different business models can be expected. M...

  17. COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS - SCENARIOS METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivan Valeriu

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Keeping a company in the top performing players in the relevant market depends not only on its ability to develop continually, sustainably and balanced, to the standards set by the customer and competition, but also on the ability to protect its strategic information and to know in advance the strategic information of the competition. In addition, given that economic markets, regardless of their profile, enable interconnection not only among domestic companies, but also between domestic companies and foreign companies, the issue of economic competition moves from the national economies to the field of interest of regional and international economic organizations. The stakes for each economic player is to keep ahead of the competition and to be always prepared to face market challenges. Therefore, it needs to know as early as possible, how to react to others’ strategy in terms of research, production and sales. If a competitor is planning to produce more and cheaper, then it must be prepared to counteract quickly this movement. Competitive intelligence helps to evaluate the capabilities of competitors in the market, legally and ethically, and to develop response strategies. One of the main goals of the competitive intelligence is to acknowledge the role of early warning and prevention of surprises that could have a major impact on the market share, reputation, turnover and profitability in the medium and long term of a company. This paper presents some aspects of competitive intelligence, mainly in terms of information analysis and intelligence generation. Presentation is theoretical and addresses a structured method of information analysis - scenarios method – in a version that combines several types of analysis in order to reveal some interconnecting aspects of the factors governing the activity of a company.

  18. Modeling of Demining Scenarios Using Metal Detectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Fernando Vargas Buitrago

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an analytical model and a numerical model that uses the finite element method to simulate demining scenarios using metal detectors. Using the analytical model, simulations of typical demining scenarios with varying parameters were executed. In addition, an analysis was made that aids in clearly understanding the effect of the scenario variables on a Continuous Wave metal detector response. In order to experimentally validate the numerical model, a Continuous Wave metal detector prototype was built to obtain experimental data. The numerical method can also be used to simulate demining scenarios with high metallic content landmines.

  19. Energy scenarios for Colombia: process and content

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Ricardo A. [National Univ. of Colombia, Escuela de Geosciencias y Medio Ambiente, Medellin (Colombia); Vesga, Daniel R.A. [Unidad de Planeacion Minero Energetica, Bogota (Colombia); Cadena, Angela I. [Los Andes Univ., School of Engineering, Bogota (Colombia); Boman, Ulf [Kairos Future AB, Stockholm (Sweden); Larsen, Erik [Cass Business School, London (United Kingdom); Dyner, Isaac [Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Energy Inst., Medellin (Colombia)

    2005-02-01

    This paper presents the approach undertaken, and the four energy scenarios that have been developed, to support long term energy policy in Colombia. The scenarios were constructed with emphasis on maximum interaction between stakeholders in the Colombian energy sector. The process directly involved over 120 people. The scenarios were developed as strategic support tools for the Energy and Mining Planning Unit (UPME), which is the Colombian institution in charge of developing the country's energy strategies and National Energy Policy. The methodology employed is presented, followed by a detailed description of each of the four scenarios. (Author)

  20. From Scenarios to Test Implementations Via Promela

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulrich, Andreas; Alikacem, El-Hachemi; Hallal, Hesham H.; Boroday, Sergiy

    We report on a tool for generating executable concurrent tests from scenarios specified as message sequence charts. The proposed approach features three steps: 1) Deriving a MSC test implementation from a MSC scenario, 2) Mapping the test implementation into a Promela model, 3) Generating executable test scripts in Java. The generation of an intermediate Promela model allows for model-checking to inspect the test implementation for properties like soundness, fault detection power as well as for consistency checking between different test scenarios. Moreover decoupling the executable test scripts from the scenario specification makes it possible to use different backend code generators to support other scripting languages when needed.

  1. The unfolding: scenario planning in nursing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woude, Diana Vander; Damgaard, Gloria; Hegge, Margaret J; Soholt, Deb; Bunkers, Sandra Schmidt

    2003-01-01

    An interdisciplinary consortium organized a group to explore the meaning and the future of nursing in South Dakota using scenario planning. This column provides a general description of the four scenarios that emerged, some observations about how they might evolve, comments on their implications, and first-person stories, as told by fictitious residents. The process of scenario planning is connected to nursing science by explicating how five lessons of scenario planning are linked with Parse's human becoming concepts of creative imagining, glimpsing the paradoxical, and affirming personal becoming.

  2. Scenario research: Can the future be predicted?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2000-01-01

    whether the shopping situation described will become a reality, but attempts can be made to come up with qualified indications on possible development directions. In connection with a scenario research project, researchers from MAPP and the Danish Technological University have looked into the future...... possible futures. In the process of creating the scenarios, researchers at MAPP and the Danish Technical University formulated mini scenarios based on their research. The scenarios were used as inspiration in discussions with experts from industry, trade organisations, authorities etc. and later discussed...... and supplemented at workshops - one for each of the four sectors. Experts from industry, trade organisations, retailing, authorities and other interested parties participated....

  3. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  4. Scenario of Architectural Education in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dua, S.; Chahal, K. S.

    2014-09-01

    The dictionary meaning of education is to develop mentally and morally. A good holistic architectural education, therefore, is a combination of skills, information, as well as values. It is somewhat unique. The evaluation process is continuous in nature and in addition to the traditional means of assessment, the training in architectural education consists of varied interrelated parts-theory, field visit and studio/workshop. To certain extent the subjective nature of the design studio projects provides challenges and opportunities for both students and faculty members, in terms of acquiring necessary skills at the part of the students, and, necessity to update and upgrade continually with the changing pace at the part of the teachers. Technology continues to grow at a rapid pace; equipping the students to meet the complex demands of the profession; the curriculum structure and focus and value system must facilitate the relationship between general education and specialized study. Architects must acquire and understand the required information and find ways to put it in order and apply it to particular settings especially in this era of MNCs and BPOs. The paper discusses the current scenario of architectural education in India and affirms the need for change in this education from generalized study which had been in practice in twentieth century to a more relevant, specialised, and value-based education addressing technical and humanistic challenges more objectively in these vastly changing, socio-economic and political trends at global and regional levels.

  5. Toward Interactive Scenario Analysis and Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gayle, Thomas R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Summers, Kenneth Lee [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Jungels, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis; Oppel III, Fred J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Interactive Systems, Simulations, and Analysis

    2015-01-01

    As Modeling and Simulation (M&S) tools have matured, their applicability and importance have increased across many national security challenges. In particular, they provide a way to test how something may behave without the need to do real world testing. However, current and future changes across several factors including capabilities, policy, and funding are driving a need for rapid response or evaluation in ways that many M&S tools cannot address. Issues around large data, computational requirements, delivery mechanisms, and analyst involvement already exist and pose significant challenges. Furthermore, rising expectations, rising input complexity, and increasing depth of analysis will only increase the difficulty of these challenges. In this study we examine whether innovations in M&S software coupled with advances in ''cloud'' computing and ''big-data'' methodologies can overcome many of these challenges. In particular, we propose a simple, horizontally-scalable distributed computing environment that could provide the foundation (i.e. ''cloud'') for next-generation M&S-based applications based on the notion of ''parallel multi-simulation''. In our context, the goal of parallel multi- simulation is to consider as many simultaneous paths of execution as possible. Therefore, with sufficient resources, the complexity is dominated by the cost of single scenario runs as opposed to the number of runs required. We show the feasibility of this architecture through a stable prototype implementation coupled with the Umbra Simulation Framework [6]. Finally, we highlight the utility through multiple novel analysis tools and by showing the performance improvement compared to existing tools.

  6. Business Planning for Turbulent Times New Methods for Applying Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Ramirez, Rafael; Van der Heijden, Kees

    2010-01-01

    The world is increasingly turbulent and complex, awash with disruptions, tipping points and knock-on effects exemplified by the implosion of financial markets and economies around the globe. This book is for business and organizational leaders who want and need to think through how best to deal with increasing turbulence, and with the complexity and uncertainty that come with it. The authors explain in clear language how future orientation and, specifically, modern scenario techniques help to address these conditions. They draw on examples from a wide variety of international settings and circ

  7. Uncertainty in Integrated Assessment Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mort Webster

    2005-10-17

    trends from a model for uncertainty projections. The probability distributions of these critical model drivers, and the resulting uncertainty in projections from a range of models, can provide the basis of future emission scenario set designs.

  8. Scenario dependency of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Katherine; Williams, Ric; Oschlies, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    The transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), in relating surface temperature changes to cumulative carbon emissions, provides a means of estimating carbon budgets from global warming benchmarks. Current Earth System Model results indicate that the TCRE is linear and scenario-independent. We explore the sensitivity of the TCRE to scenario and model parameter uncertainties using 8 configurations of the UVic Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, forced by 2 twenty-first-century emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). We find that the TCRE is higher under RCP 4.5 than 8.5 by 0.3-0.8 K/1000 Pg C and shows opposing nonlinear tendencies in these scenarios: an increase of 0.15-0.5 K/1000 Pg C over RCP 4.5 and a decrease of 0-0.7 K/1000 Pg C over RCP 8.5. These differences are robust across model configurations with perturbed land and ocean parametrizations and are the result of the decreased efficiency of heat transport into the deep ocean under decelerating emissions.

  9. Multi-modal Virtual Scenario Enhances Neurofeedback Learning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avihay Cohen

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In the past decade neurofeedback has become the focus of a growing body of research. With real-time fMRI enabling on-line monitoring of emotion related areas such as the amygdala, many have begun testing its therapeutic benefits. However most existing neurofeedback procedures still use monotonic uni-modal interfaces, thus possibly limiting user engagement and weakening learning efficiency. The current study tested a novel multi-sensory neurofeedback animated scenario aimed at enhancing user experience and improving learning. We examined whether relative to a simple uni-modal 2D interface, learning via an interface of complex multi-modal 3D scenario will result in improved neurofeedback learning. As a neural-probe, we used the recently developed fMRI-inspired EEG model of amygdala activity (amygdala-EEG finger print; amygdala-EFP, enabling low-cost and mobile limbic neurofeedback training. Amygdala-EFP was reflected in the animated scenario by the unrest level of a hospital waiting-room in which virtual characters become impatient, approach the admission-desk and complain loudly. Successful down-regulation was reflected as an ease in the room unrest-level. We tested whether relative to a standard uni-modal 2D graphic thermometer interface, this animated scenario could facilitate more effective learning and improve the training experience. Thirty participants underwent two separated neurofeedback sessions (one-week apart practicing down-regulation of the amygdala-EFP signal. In the first session, half trained via the animated scenario and half via a thermometer interface. Learning efficiency was tested by three parameters: (a effect-size of the change in amygdala-EFP following training, (b sustainability of the learned down-regulation in the absence of online feedback, and (c transferability to an unfamiliar context. Comparing amygdala-EFP signal amplitude between the last and the first neurofeedback trials revealed that the animated scenario

  10. Scenario planning methodology in biomedicine sciences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iraj Nabipour

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Scenario planning is a process that stimulates imaginative, creative thinking to better prepare an organization for the future. It is also as a tool to promote innovation activities in organizations. Scenario planning may provide alternate futures in which strategies of the organization develop. Very recently, Jay Ogilvy introduced an eight steps scenario planning and strategic forecasting. According to this eight-step process, scenario planning has two major parts: first, choosing which scenario logics to flesh out, a task that comprises the first five steps, and second, telling the actual story, its implications and early indicators, which compromise the remaining steps. In order to identify opportunities and challenges faced by biomedicine sciences there are continually increasing trends for scenario planning in the field. In highly uncertain environments, as are faced in biomedicine sciences, scenario planning can provide a robust, flexible path to navigate. By evaluating the implications of societal, economic and policy impacts of these scenarios, biosciences organizations can determine how to manage a transition to regenerative medicine and personalized medicine, both of which could disrupt current healthcare systems.

  11. Evaluation Framework for Dependable Mobile Learning Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensassi, Manel; Laroussi, Mona

    2014-01-01

    The goal of the dependability analysis is to predict inconsistencies and to reveal ambiguities and incompleteness in the designed learning scenario. Evaluation, in traditional learning design, is generally planned after the execution of the scenario. In mobile learning, this stage becomes too difficult and expensive to apply due to the complexity…

  12. Development of advanced inductive scenarios for ITER

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Luce, T. C.; Challis, C. D.; Ide, S.; Joffrin, E.; Kamada, Y.; Polizer, P. A.; Schweinzer, J.; Sips, A.C.C.; Stober, J.; Giruzzi, G.; Kessel, C. E.; Murakami, M.; Na, Y.-S.; Park, J. M.; Polevoi, A. R.; Budny, R. V.; Citrin, J.; Garcia, J.; Hayashi, N.; Hobirk, J.; Hudson, B. F.; Imbeaux, F.; Isayama, A.; McDonald, D. C.; Nakano, T.; Oyama, N.; Parail, V.V.; Petrie, T. W.; Petty, C. C.; Suzuki, T.; Wade, M. R.

    2014-01-01

    Since its inception in 2002, the International Tokamak Physics Activity topical group on Integrated Operational Scenarios (IOS) has coordinated experimental and modelling activity on the development of advanced inductive scenarios for applications in the ITER tokamak. The physics basis and the prosp

  13. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  14. Molecular Diagnostic Analysis of Outbreak Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morsink, M. C.; Dekter, H. E.; Dirks-Mulder, A.; van Leeuwen, W. B.

    2012-01-01

    In the current laboratory assignment, technical aspects of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) are integrated in the context of six different bacterial outbreak scenarios. The "Enterobacterial Repetitive Intergenic Consensus Sequence" (ERIC) PCR was used to analyze different outbreak scenarios. First, groups of 2-4 students determined optimal…

  15. Scenario Planning at College of Marin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    College of Marin, Kentfield, CA.

    This article reviews the scenario planning process implemented at the College of Marin (California). Scenario planning is a creative process in which a group of people who share a common fate develop stories about different ways their future might unfold, and use these stories to make decisions about what path to take. The Global Business Network…

  16. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  17. Tank waste remediation system operational scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnson, M.E.

    1995-05-01

    The Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) mission is to store, treat, and immobilize highly radioactive Hanford waste (current and future tank waste and the strontium and cesium capsules) in an environmentally sound, safe, and cost-effective manner (DOE 1993). This operational scenario is a description of the facilities that are necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. The TWRS Program is developing technologies, conducting engineering analyses, and preparing for design and construction of facilities necessary to remediate the Hanford Site tank wastes. An Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) is being prepared to evaluate proposed actions of the TWRS. This operational scenario is only one of many plausible scenarios that would result from the completion of TWRS technology development, engineering analyses, design and construction activities and the TWRS EIS. This operational scenario will be updated as the development of the TWRS proceeds and will be used as a benchmark by which to evaluate alternative scenarios.

  18. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...... sectors. The methodologies used in two academic scenarios, IDA 2050 and CEESA, are compared. The main differences in the methodologies of IDA 2050 and CEESA are found in the estimation of future biomass potential, transport demand assessment, and a trial to examine future power grid in an electrical...

  19. Visual unified modeling language for the composition of scenarios in modeling and simulation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talbert, Michael L.; Swayne, Daniel E.

    2006-05-01

    The Department of Defense uses modeling and simulation systems in many various roles, from research and training to modeling likely outcomes of command decisions. Simulation systems have been increasing in complexity with the increased capability of low-cost computer systems to support these DOD requirements. The demand for scenarios is also increasing, but the complexity of the simulation systems has caused a bottleneck in scenario development due to the limited number of individuals with knowledge of the arcane simulator languages in which these scenarios are written. This research combines the results of previous efforts from the Air Force Institute of Technology in visual modeling languages to create a language that unifies description of entities within a scenario with its behavior using a visual tool that was developed in the course of this research. The resulting language has a grammar and syntax that can be parsed from the visual representation of the scenario. The language is designed so that scenarios can be described in a generic manner, not tied to a specific simulation system, allowing the future development of modules to translate the generic scenario into simulation system specific scenarios.

  20. Scenarios Creation and Use in the Arctic Council's Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigham, L. W.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic Council's Arctic Marine Shipping Assessment (AMSA), conducted 2004-2009, used a scenarios-based approach to reveal the complexity of future Arctic marine navigation and to develop a set of plausible futures. The initial task was to use experts and stakeholders in brainstorming sessions to identify the key drivers and uncertainties for Arctic marine navigation. AMSA scenario participants identified 120 driving forces or factors that may influence future levels of marine activity. This effort illustrated the broad, global connections that can impact future use of the Arctic Ocean. Two primary factors were selected to anchor, as axes of uncertainty, the scenarios matrix: resources and trade (the level of demand for Arctic natural resources and trade); and, governance (the degree of relative stability of rules and standards for marine use both within the Arctic and internationally). Four scenarios were created by crossing the two primary drivers: a Polar Lows scenario (low demand and unstable governance); an Arctic Race scenario (high demand and unstable governance); a Polar Preserve scenario (low demand and stable governance); and, an Arctic Saga scenario (high demand and stable governance). The AMSA scenarios effort proved to be an effective and powerful way to communicate to the Arctic Council diplomats, Arctic indigenous peoples, maritime stakeholders and many other actors in the global community the complexities influencing the future of Arctic shipping and marine operations. The scenarios approach facilitated unconstrained thinking and identified the many plausible linkages of the Arctic to the global economic system. The AMSA scenarios work was influential in the Arctic ministers' approval of the framework set of AMSA recommendations that are being implemented today to enhance Arctic marine safety and environmental protection.

  1. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijl-Brouwer, van der Mieke; Voort, van der Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  2. Participatory Scenario Generation: Communicating Usability Issues in Product Design through User Involvement in Scenario Generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Bijl-Brouwer, Mieke; van der Voort, Mascha C.

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios have proven to be a valuable tool in evaluating and communicating usability issues in consumer product design. Scenarios are explicit descriptions of hypothetical use situations. Realistic scenarios can serve as a valuable frame of reference to evaluate design solutions with regard to usab

  3. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  4. Metaphorical scenarios in business science discourse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baramee Kheovichai

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Metaphor has been shown to play an important role in business science discourse. Yet, previous corpus-based studies only investigated a pre-selected list of metaphoric expressions, potentially rendering the analysis incomplete. Furthermore, some studies which only focused on lexis did not analyse how the lexical items may construct business concepts in terms of scenarios. The purpose of this research is to investigate metaphor used to construct business concepts in business research articles. 42 business research articles published in 2009-2010 from five journals ranked in the top-ten according to the 2007 journal impact factors (Thompson Reuters, 2008 constitute the data of this study. Semantic annotation software USAS (Rayson, 2008 was used to assist in the retrieval of metaphoric expressions. Furthermore, manual analysis of concordances was done to find metaphorical expressions that had not been captured by the semantic tags. The analysis of these metaphoric expressions was based on Conceptual Metaphor Theory (Lakoff & Johnson, 1980 and Metaphor Scenario (Musolff, 2006. Data analysis indicates that metaphor constructs business concepts as scenarios which have participants performing actions to reach their goal according to the SOURCE-PATH-GOAL schema of the source domains. At the centre of these scenarios, the BOUNDED SPACE source domain serves as a conceptual space or a setting for each scenario. Other source domains, which are WAR, SPORT, GAME, JOURNEY, MACHINE, LIVING ORGANISM, BUILDING and PHYSICAL FORCES, project the scenarios onto the space, forming interconnected and coherent scenarios of business discourse

  5. Quantitative Verification and Synthesis of Attack-Defence Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanyan, Zaruhi; Nielson, Flemming; Parker, David

    2016-01-01

    which guarantee or optimise some quantitative property, such as the probability of a successful attack, the expected cost incurred, or some multi-objective trade-off between the two. We implement our approach, building upon the PRISM-games model checker, and apply it to a case study of an RFID goods...... analysis of quantitative properties of complex attack-defence scenarios, using an extension of attack-defence trees which models temporal ordering of actions and allows explicit dependencies in the strategies adopted by attackers and defenders. We adopt a game-theoretic approach, translating attack......-defence trees to two-player stochastic games, and then employ probabilistic model checking techniques to formally analyse these models. This provides a means to both verify formally specified security properties of the attack-defence scenarios and, dually, to synthesise strategies for attackers or defenders...

  6. Macroecological analyses support an overkill scenario for late Pleistocene extinctions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. A. F. Diniz-Filho

    Full Text Available The extinction of megafauna at the end of Pleistocene has been traditionally explained by environmental changes or overexploitation by human hunting (overkill. Despite difficulties in choosing between these alternative (and not mutually exclusive scenarios, the plausibility of the overkill hypothesis can be established by ecological models of predator-prey interactions. In this paper, I have developed a macroecological model for the overkill hypothesis, in which prey population dynamic parameters, including abundance, geographic extent, and food supply for hunters, were derived from empirical allometric relationships with body mass. The last output correctly predicts the final destiny (survival or extinction for 73% of the species considered, a value only slightly smaller than those obtained by more complex models based on detailed archaeological and ecological data for each species. This illustrates the high selectivity of Pleistocene extinction in relation to body mass and confers more plausibility on the overkill scenario.

  7. Occult hepatitis B infection: an evolutionary scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukashov Vladimir V

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Occult or latent hepatitis B virus (HBV infection is defined as infection with detectable HBV DNA and undetectable surface antigen (HBsAg in patients' blood. The cause of an overt HBV infection becoming an occult one is unknown. To gain insight into the mechanism of the development of occult infection, we compared the full-length HBV genome from a blood donor carrying an occult infection (d4 with global genotype D genomes. Results The phylogenetic analysis of polymerase, core and X protein sequences did not distinguish d4 from other genotype D strains. Yet, d4 surface protein formed the evolutionary outgroup relative to all other genotype D strains. Its evolutionary branch was the only one where accumulation of substitutions suggests positive selection (dN/dS = 1.3787. Many of these substitutiions accumulated specifically in regions encoding the core/surface protein interface, as revealed in a 3D-modeled protein complex. We identified a novel RNA splicing event (deleting nucleotides 2986-202 that abolishes surface protein gene expression without affecting polymerase, core and X-protein related functions. Genotype D strains differ in their ability to perform this 2986-202 splicing. Strains prone to 2986-202 splicing constitute a separate clade in a phylogenetic tree of genotype D HBVs. A single substitution (G173T that is associated with clade membership alters the local RNA secondary structure and is proposed to affect splicing efficiency at the 202 acceptor site. Conclusion We propose an evolutionary scenario for occult HBV infection, in which 2986-202 splicing generates intracellular virus particles devoid of surface protein, which subsequently accumulates mutations due to relaxation of coding constraints. Such viruses are deficient of autonomous propagation and cannot leave the host cell until it is lysed.

  8. LIG1 polymorphisms: the Indian scenario

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Amit Kumar Mitra; Ashok Singh; Indian Genome Variation Consortium; Srikanta Kumar Rath

    2014-08-01

    Elucidation of the genetic diversity and relatedness of the subpopulations of India may provide a unique resource for future analysis of genetic association of several critical community-specific complex diseases.We performed a comprehensive exploration of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the gene DNA ligase 1 (LIG1) among a multiethnic panel of Indian subpopulations representative of the ethnic, linguistic and geographical diversity of India using a two-stage design involving DNA resequencing-based SNP discovery followed by SNP validation using sequenom-based genotyping. Thirty SNPs were identified in LIG1 gene using DNA resequencing including three promoter SNPs and one coding SNP. Following SNP validation, the SNPs rs20580/C19008A and rs3730862/C8804T were found to have the most widespread prevalence with noticeable variations in minor allele frequencies both between the Indian subpopulation groups and also from those reported on other major world populations. Subsequently, SNPs found in Indian subpopulations were analysed using bioinformatics-based approaches and compared with SNP data available on major world populations. Further, we also performed genotype–phenotype association analysis of LIG1 SNPs with publicly available data on LIG1 mRNA expression in HapMap samples. Results showed polymorphisms in LIG1 affect its expression and may therefore change its function. Our results stress upon the uniqueness of the Indian population with respect to the worldwide scenario and suggest that any epidemiological study undertaken on the global population should take this distinctiveness in consideration and avoid making generalized conclusions.

  9. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties. Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy...... frameworks for action. Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what...

  10. Cluster correlations - a test for biased scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martinez-gonzalez, E.; Sanz, J.L.

    1988-01-01

    The cluster autocorrelation function Xi(c) and the galaxy-cluster cross-correlation Xi(gc) are used to test the biased structure formation in several scenarios. A scale-free spectrum can reproduce the observed Xi(c), but it is in contradiction to Xi(gc). On the other hand, acceptable results are obtained for Xi(gc) in cold dark matter scenarios with adiabatic and isocurvature fluctuations. However, these scenarios are rejected on the grounds of Xi(c). 42 references.

  11. Overview of a new scenario framework for climate change research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2013-12-01

    -axis). They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. The reality that the development pathways may be affected by climate change will be taken into account when combining SSPs with climate change projections to generate a socioeconomic-climate scenario. The new scenario process, although complex, provides a flexible toolkit to facilitate research and assessment that can characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts.

  12. Stepping into futures: exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, J.M.; Kok, K.; Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Veldkamp, A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources

  13. Stepping into futures: exploring the potential of interactive media for participatory scenarios on social ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vervoort, J.M.; Kok, K.; Lammeren, van R.J.A.; Veldkamp, A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we present a strategy for the development of interactive media scenarios to help communicate uncertainties and complexities in coupled human and natural systems. Insights arising from Complex Adaptive Systems theory advocate the need for more adaptive perspectives on natural resources

  14. Fish Springs pond snail : Refuge communication scenario

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — Communication scenario between the branch of Listing and Recovery, Fish and Wildlife Enhancement, and Fish Springs National Wildlife Refuge (NWR), in regards to the...

  15. Experts dismiss doomsday scenarios for RHIC

    CERN Document Server

    Levi, B G

    2000-01-01

    A panel of particle physicists examining the possibility that operation of RHIC could generate blackholes or 'strangelets' which would consume ordinary matter, have declared that such scenarios are 'firmly excluded' (1 p).

  16. Type Ia supernovae and the DD scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Isern, J; Lorén-Aguilar, P

    2011-01-01

    Type Ia supernovae are thought to be the outcome of the thermonuclear explosion of a white dwarf in a close binary system. Two possible scenarios, not necessarily incompatible, have been advanced. One assumes a white dwarf that accretes matter from a nondegenerate companion (the single degenerate scenario), the other assumes two white dwarfs that merge as a consequence of the emission of gravitational waves (the double degenerate scenario). The delay time distribution of star formation bursts strongly suggests that the DD scenario should be responsible of the late time explosions, but this contradicts the common wisdom that the outcome of the merging of two white dwarfs is an accretion induced collapse to a neutron star. In this contribution we review some of the most controversial issues of this problem.

  17. Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nadolski, Rob; Kurvers, Hub

    2010-01-01

    Nadolski, R. J., & Kurvers, H. J. (2010, 23 March). Swift Development of Immersive Learning Scenarios. Presentation during a workshop with Sector5, Heerlen, The Netherlands: Open University of the Netherlands; iCoper.

  18. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    .... This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology...

  19. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    .... This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed...

  20. Peninsular Florida future scenarios integrated project

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — This is a integrated scenario project to the Florida state line that incorporates updated critical land and water identification project layers with a decision...

  1. Group 1: Scenario design and development issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherwin, P.

    1981-01-01

    All LOFT scenarios and flight segments should be designed on the basis of a detailed statement of specific objectives. These objectives must state what kind of situation is to be addressed and why. The origin, routing, and destination of a particular scenario should be dictated by the specific objectives for that scenario or leg. Other factors to be considered are the desired weather, climate, etc. Simulator visual system, as well as other capabilities and limitations must be considered at a very early stage of scenario design. The simulator navigation area must be apropriate and must coincide with current Jeppeson charts. Much of the realism of LOFT is destroyed if the crew is unable to use current manuals and other materials.

  2. Scenarios for the food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup; Sonne, Anne-Mette

    2001-01-01

    Predicting the future is impossible; corporate decision-makers have, however, to decide which competencies to develop precisely on this basis. This article presents the results of a research project on scenario analyses in the Danish food industry. The aim of the study is to look at alternative...... visions of the future of the food industry and to assess their implications for competence requirements. Given the uncertain nature of the environment, food companies cannot rely on today's competencies being sufficient to fulfil the demands of tomorrow's markets. However, predicting the determinants...... of success in the food industry 10 years hence is a daunting task. Scenario techniques can be very useful in this respect (von Reibnitz, 1988). The contribution of the article is the methodological approach to scenario building, which combines academic and industry input and translates the scenarios...

  3. Asian water futures - Multi scenarios, models and criteria assessment -

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Yusuke; Burek, Peter; Wada, Yoshihide; Flrörke, Martina; Eisner, Stephanie; Hanasaki, Naota; Kahil, Taher; Tramberend, Sylvia; Fischer, Günther; Wiberg, David

    2016-04-01

    A better understanding of the current and future availability of water resources is essential for the implementation of the recently agreed Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Long-term/efficient strategies for coping with current and potential future water-related challenges are urgently required. Although Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) were develop for the impact assessment of climate change, very few assessments have yet used the SSPs to assess water resources. Then the IIASA Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS), developed a set of water use scenarios consistent with RCPs and SSPs and applying the latest climate changes scenarios. Here this study focuses on results for Asian countries for the period 2010-2050. We present three conceivable future pathways of Asian water resources, determined by feasible combinations of two RCPs and three SSPs. Such a scenario approach provides valuable insights towards identifying appropriate strategies as gaps between a "scenario world" and reality. In addition, for the assessment of future water resources a multi-criteria analysis is applied. A classification system for countries and watershed that consists of two broad dimensions: (i) economic and institutional adaptive capacity, (ii) hydrological complexity. The latter is composed of several sub-indexes including total renewable water resources per capita, the ratio of water demand to renewable water resource, variability of runoff and dependency ratio to external. Furthermore, this analysis uses a multi-model approach to estimate runoff and discharge using 5 GCMs and 5 global hydrological models (GHMs). Three of these GHMs calculate water use based on a consistent set of scenarios in addition to water availability. As a result, we have projected hot spots of water scarcity in Asia and their spatial and temporal change. For example, in a scenario based on SSP2 and RCP6.0, by 2050, in total 2.1 billion people

  4. Subsistence Exposure Scenarios for Tribal Applications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Barbara; Harding, Anna; Harris, Stuart; Berger, Patricia

    2012-07-01

    The article provides an overview of methods that can be used to develop exposure scenarios for unique tribal natural resource usage patterns. Exposure scenarios are used to evaluate the degree of environmental contact experienced by people with different patterns of lifestyle activities, such as residence, recreation, or work. in 1994, U.S. President Bill Clinton's Executive Order 12898 recognized that disproportionately high exposures could be incurred by people with traditional subsistence lifestyles because of their more intensive contact with natural resources. Since then, we have developed several tribal exposure scenarios that reflect tribal-specific traditional lifeways. These scenarios are not necessarily intended to capture contemporary resource patterns, but to describe how the resources were used before contamination or degradation, and will be used once again in fully traditional ways after cleanup and restoration. The direct exposure factors for inhalation and soil ingestion rates are the same in each tribal scenario, but the diets are unique to each tribe and its local ecology, natural foods, and traditional practices. Scenarios, in part or in whole, also have other applications, such as developing environmental standards, evaluating disproportionate exposures, developing sampling plans, planning for climate change, or evaluating service flows as part of natural resource damage assessments.

  5. Out-of-Africa origin and dispersal-mediated diversification of the butterfly genus Junonia (Nymphalidae: Nymphalinae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kodandaramaiah, U; Wahlberg, N

    2007-11-01

    The relative importance of dispersal and vicariance in the diversification of taxa has been much debated. Within butterflies, a few studies published so far have demonstrated vicariant patterns at the global level. We studied the historical biogeography of the genus Junonia (Nymphalidae: Nymphalinae) at the intercontinental level based on a molecular phylogeny. The genus is distributed over all major biogeographical regions of the world except the Palaearctic. We found dispersal to be the dominant process in the diversification of the genus. The genus originated and started diversifying in Africa about 20 Ma and soon after dispersed into Asia possibly through the Arabian Peninsula. From Asia, there were dispersals into Africa and Australasia, all around 5 Ma. The origin of the New World species is ambiguous; the ancestral may have dispersed from Asia via the Beringian Strait or from Africa over the Atlantic, about 3 Ma. We found no evidence for vicariance at the intercontinental scale. We argue that dispersal is as important as vicariance, if not more, in the global diversification of butterflies.

  6. Out-of-Africa, the peopling of continents and islands: tracing uniparental gene trees across the map

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Genetic relationships between human groups were first studied by comparisons of relative allele frequency at multiple loci. Geographical study of detailed, highly resolved trees of single, non-recombining uniparental loci (mitochondrial DNA: mtDNA and Y chromosome/non-recombining Y: NRY), following specific lineages rather than populations, then revolutionized knowledge of the peopling of the world, although, curiously, the use of geographically highly specific mutations that protect against malaria, found on individual autosomal globin genes, were first in single-locus phylogeography. mtDNA, with its high single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) mutation rates and relative ease of dating, led the way and gave stronger proof of the recent near replacement of all human species by anatomically modern humans (AMH). AMH left Africa via a single southern exit about 70 000 years ago and rapidly spread around the Indian Ocean towards the Antipodes, long before a small branch left a South Asian colony, earlier on the trail, to populate Europe. The worldwide skeleton phylogeny of mtDNA is fully resolved, but a regional analysis will continue to illuminate subsequent migrations. NRY with a lower SNP mutation rate still has a dating problem relating to use the of single tandem repeats (STRs), but has validated mtDNA results and with more geographical specificity and genomic size, as with the autosomal human genome, has much more detail to offer for the future. PMID:22312044

  7. A real case study on transportation scenario comparison

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsoukiás A.

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a real case study dealing with the comparison of transport scenarios. The study is conducted within a larger project concerning the establishment of the maritime traffic policy in Greece. The paper presents the problem situation and an appropriate problem formulation. Moreover a detailed version of the evaluation model is presented in the paper. The model consists of a complex hierarchy of evaluation models enabling us to take into account the multiple dimensions and points of view of the actors involved in the evaluations.

  8. Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriam, Eric R; Petty, J Todd; Strager, Michael P

    2016-07-24

    There is a critical need for tools and methodologies capable of managing aquatic systems within heavily impacted watersheds. Current efforts often fall short as a result of an inability to quantify and predict complex cumulative effects of current and future land use scenarios at relevant spatial scales. The goal of this manuscript is to provide methods for conducting a targeted watershed assessment that enables resource managers to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for use within a scenario analysis management framework. Sites are first selected for inclusion within the watershed assessment by identifying sites that fall along independent gradients and combinations of known stressors. Field and laboratory techniques are then used to obtain data on the physical, chemical, and biological effects of multiple land use activities. Multiple linear regression analysis is then used to produce landscape-based cumulative effects models for predicting aquatic conditions. Lastly, methods for incorporating cumulative effects models within a scenario analysis framework for guiding management and regulatory decisions (e.g., permitting and mitigation) within actively developing watersheds are discussed and demonstrated for 2 sub-watersheds within the mountaintop mining region of central Appalachia. The watershed assessment and management approach provided herein enables resource managers to facilitate economic and development activity while protecting aquatic resources and producing opportunity for net ecological benefits through targeted remediation.

  9. When Scenario Planning Turns Eristic : The Reification of the Future in the “Local Government of the Future” program

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ossewaarde, Marinus R.R.

    2016-01-01

    Scenario planning is an increasingly popular method. Scientists and policy makers are increasingly fascinated with the future, in a context of discontinuation of trends, coming up challenges, deep complexities, and radical uncertainty of how the future will look like. Scenario planning offers an exp

  10. Analysis of the energy scenario Negawatt 2006; Analyse du scenario energetique negaWatt 2006

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2006-10-15

    The association Negawatt published in 2003 an energy scenario for the France in 2050, under the name of Negawatt 2006. This document aims to analyze the scenario Negawatt with a comparison of the scenario published on the web site of SLC, Save the Climate. The authors analyzes the main three sectors: electricity, transports and residential to propose their comparison in conclusion. (A.L.B.)

  11. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  12. USGS Multi-Hazards Winter Storm Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Perry, S. C.

    2008-12-01

    The USGS began an inter-disciplinary effort, the Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP), in 2007 to demonstrate how hazards science can improve a community's resiliency to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages the user community in setting research goals and directs efforts towards research products that can be applied to loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. It detailed the realistic outcomes of a hypothetical, but plausible, magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California. Over 300 scientist and experts contributed to designing the earthquake and understanding the impacts of such a disaster, including the geotechnical, engineering, social, cultural, environmental, and economic consequences. The scenario advanced scientific understanding and exposed numerous vulnerabilities related to emergency response and lifeline continuity management. The ShakeOut Scenario was the centerpiece of the Nation's largest-ever emergency response exercise in November 2008, dubbed "The Great Southern California ShakeOut" (www.shakeout.org). USGS Multi-Hazards is now preparing for its next major public project, a Winter Storm Scenario. Like the earthquake scenario, experts will be brought together to examine in detail the possibility, cost and consequences of a winter storm disaster including floods, landslides, coastal erosion and inundation; debris flows; biologic consequences like extirpation of endangered species; physical damages like bridge scour, road closures, dam failure, property loss, and water system collapse. Consideration will be given to the vulnerabilities associated with a catastrophic disruption to the water supply to southern California; the resulting impacts on ground water pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence; and a

  13. Development of nonproliferation and assessment scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finley, Melissa; Barnett, Natalie Beth

    2005-10-01

    The overall objective of the Nonproliferation and Assessments Scenario Development project is to create and analyze potential and plausible scenarios that would lead to an adversary's ability to acquire and use a biological weapon. The initial three months of funding was intended to be used to develop a scenario to demonstrate the efficacy of this analysis methodology; however, it was determined that a substantial amount of preliminary data collection would be needed before a proof of concept scenario could be developed. We have dedicated substantial effort to determine the acquisition pathways for Foot and Mouth Disease Virus, and similar processes will be applied to all pathogens of interest. We have developed a biosecurity assessments database to capture information on adversary skill locales, available skill sets in specific regions, pathogen sources and regulations involved in pathogen acquisition from legitimate facilities. FY06 funding, once released, will be dedicated to data collection on acquisition, production and dissemination requirements on a pathogen basis. Once pathogen data has been collected, scenarios will be developed and scored.

  14. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow, aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  15. Practical Applications for Earthquake Scenarios Using ShakeMap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wald, D. J.; Worden, B.; Quitoriano, V.; Goltz, J.

    2001-12-01

    estimates that will substantially improve over empirical relations at these frequencies will require developing cost-effective numerical tools for proper theoretical inclusion of known complex ground motion effects. Current efforts underway must continue in order to obtain site, basin, and deeper crustal structure, and to characterize and test 3D earth models (including attenuation and nonlinearity). In contrast, longer period synthetics (>2 sec) are currently being generated in a deterministic fashion to include 3D and shallow site effects, an improvement on empirical estimates alone. As progress is made, we will naturally incorporate such advances into the ShakeMap scenario earthquake and processing methodology. Our scenarios are currently used heavily in emergency response planning and loss estimation. Primary users include city, county, state and federal government agencies (e.g., the California Office of Emergency Services, FEMA, the County of Los Angeles) as well as emergency response planners and managers for utilities, businesses, and other large organizations. We have found the scenarios are also of fundamental interest to many in the media and the general community interested in the nature of the ground shaking likely experienced in past earthquakes as well as effects of rupture on known faults in the future.

  16. Multidecadal Fluvial Sediment Fluxes to Deltas under Environmental Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunn, Frances; Darby, Stephen; Nicholls, Robert

    2016-04-01

    Sediment delivery is vital to sustain delta environments on which over half a billion people live worldwide. Due to factors such as subsidence and sea level rise, deltas sink relative to sea level if sediment is not delivered to and retained on their surfaces. Deltas which sink relative to sea level experience flooding, land degradation and loss, which endangers anthropogenic activities and populations. The future of fluvial sediment fluxes, a key mechanism for sediment delivery to deltas, is uncertain due to complex environmental changes which are predicted to occur over the coming decades. This research investigates fluvial sediment fluxes under environmental changes in order to assess the sustainability of delta environments under potential future scenarios up to 2100. Global datasets of climate change, reservoir construction, and population and GDP as proxies for anthropogenic influence through land use changes are used to drive the catchment numerical model WBMsed, which is being used to investigate the effects of these environmental changes on fluvial sediment delivery. This process produces fluvial sediment fluxes under multiple future scenarios which will be used to assess the future sustainability of a selection of 8 vulnerable deltas, although the approach can be applied to deltas worldwide. By modelling potential future scenarios of fluvial sediment flux, this research contributes to the prognosis for delta environments. The future scenarios will inform management at multiple temporal scales, and indicate the potential consequences for deltas of various anthropogenic activities. This research will both forewarn managers of potentially unsustainable deltas and indicate those anthropogenic activities which encourage or hinder the creation of sustainable delta environments.

  17. Development and analysis of SCR requirements tables for system scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callahan, John R.; Morrison, Jeffery L.

    1995-01-01

    We describe the use of scenarios to develop and refine requirement tables for parts of the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is developing EOSDIS as part of its Mission-To-Planet-Earth (MTPE) project to accept instrument/platform observation requests from end-user scientists, schedule and perform requested observations of the Earth from space, collect and process the observed data, and distribute data to scientists and archives. Current requirements for the system are managed with tools that allow developers to trace the relationships between requirements and other development artifacts, including other requirements. In addition, the user community (e.g., earth and atmospheric scientists), in conjunction with NASA, has generated scenarios describing the actions of EOSDIS subsystems in response to user requests and other system activities. As part of a research effort in verification and validation techniques, this paper describes our efforts to develop requirements tables from these scenarios for the EOSDIS Core System (ECS). The tables specify event-driven mode transitions based on techniques developed by the Naval Research Lab's (NRL) Software Cost Reduction (SCR) project. The SCR approach has proven effective in specifying requirements for large systems in an unambiguous, terse format that enhance identification of incomplete and inconsistent requirements. We describe development of SCR tables from user scenarios and identify the strengths and weaknesses of our approach in contrast to the requirements tracing approach. We also evaluate the capabilities of both approach to respond to the volatility of requirements in large, complex systems.

  18. Anticipatory Water Management in Phoenix using Advanced Scenario Planning and Analyses: WaterSim 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampson, D. A.; Quay, R.; White, D. D.; Gober, P.; Kirkwood, C.

    2013-12-01

    Complexity, uncertainty, and variability are inherent properties of linked social and natural processes; sustainable resource management must somehow consider all three. Typically, a decision support tool (using scenario analyses) is used to examine management alternatives under suspected trajectories in driver variables (i.e., climate forcing's, growth or economic projections, etc.). This traditional planning focuses on a small set of envisioned scenarios whose outputs are compared against one-another in order to evaluate their differing impacts on desired metrics. Human cognition typically limits this to three to five scenarios. However, complex and highly uncertain issues may require more, often much more, than five scenarios. In this case advanced scenario analysis provides quantitative or qualitative methods that can reveal patterns and associations among scenario metrics for a large ensemble of scenarios. From this analysis, then, a smaller set of heuristics that describe the complexity and uncertainty revealed provides a basis to guide planning in an anticipatory fashion. Our water policy and management model, termed WaterSim, permits advanced scenario planning and analysis for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. In this contribution we examine the concepts of advanced scenario analysis on a large scale ensemble of scenarios using our work with WaterSim as a case study. For this case study we created a range of possible water futures by creating scenarios that encompasses differences in water supplies (our surrogates for climate change, drought, and inherent variability in riverine flows), population growth, and per capital water consumption. We used IPCC estimates of plausible, future, alterations in riverine runoff, locally produced and vetted estimates of population growth projections, and empirical trends in per capita water consumption for metropolitan cities. This ensemble consisted of ~ 30, 700 scenarios (~575 k observations). We compared and contrasted

  19. RESGen: Renewable Energy Scenario Generation Platform

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Iversen, Jan Emil Banning; Pinson, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    Space-time scenarios of renewable power generation are increasingly used as input to decision-making in operational problems. They may also be used in planning studies to account for the inherent uncertainty in operations. Similarly using scenarios to derive chance-constraints or robust...... optimization sets for corresponding optimization problems is useful in a power system context. Generating and evaluating such spacetime scenarios is difficult. While quite a number of proposals have appeared in the literature, a gap between methodological proposals and actual usage in operational and planning...... studies remains. Consequently, our aim here is to propose an open-source platform for space-time probabilistic forecasting of renewable energy generation (wind and solar power). This document covers both methodological and implementation aspects, to be seen as a companion document for the open...

  20. Scenario research: The food industry in 2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stacey, Julia; Sonne, Anne-Mette; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    2001-01-01

    have accepted both functional foods and genetically modified foods. They have confidence in modern food production and believe they are well informed and have a realistic picture of how to produce modern foods. The last scenario 'Tight spending' is based on a lower disposable income and extensive......What kind of foods will the consumers choose to buy in 2010? Will they be buying organic foods, functional foods or go for the cheapest products? Nobody can predict the future. However, by using scenario techniques qualified indications on future developments can be put together. Researchers...... at MAPP and the Department of Manufacturing Engineering and Management, The Technical University of Denmark have constructed three scenarios about the Danish food industry in 2010. The aim has been to identify the demands the food industry can expect to meet in the future plus which research areas...

  1. Selecting Supersymmetric String Scenarios From Sparticle Spectra

    CERN Document Server

    Allanach, Benjamin C; Quevedo, Fernando

    2002-01-01

    We approach the following question: if supersymmetry is discovered, how can we select among different supersymmetric extensions of the Standard Model? In particular, we perform an analysis of the sparticle spectrum in low-energy string effective theories, asking which observables best distinguish various scenarios. We examine scenarios differing by the fundamental string scale and concentrate on GUT and intermediate scale models. We scan over all parameters (two goldstino angles, tan beta and the gravitino mass) in each scenario, finding ratios of sparticle masses that provide the maximum discrimination between them. The necessary accuracy for discrimination is determined in each case. We find that the required accuracy on various sparticle mass ratios is at the few percent level, a precision that may be achieved in future linear colliders. We place phenomenological constraints on the parameter space and determine the supersymmetric contribution to the muon anomalous magnetic moment.

  2. Environmental evaluation of plastic waste management scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rigamonti, L.; Grosso, M.; Møller, Jacob

    2014-01-01

    The management of the plastic fraction is one of the most debated issues in the discussion on integrated municipal solid waste systems. Both material and energy recovery can be performed on such a waste stream, and different separate collection schemes can be implemented. The aim of the paper...... is to contribute to the debate, based on the analysis of different plastic waste recovery routes. Five scenarios were defined and modelled with a life cycle assessment approach using the EASEWASTE model. In the baseline scenario (P0) the plastic is treated as residual waste and routed partly to incineration...... with energy recovery and partly to mechanical biological treatment. A range of potential improvements in plastic management is introduced in the other four scenarios (P1–P4). P1 includes a source separation of clean plastic fractions for material recycling, whereas P2 a source separation of mixed plastic...

  3. Market structure scenarios in international steam coal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trueby, Johannes; Paulus, Moritz

    2011-04-15

    The seaborne steam coal market changed in recent years. Trade volumes grew dynamically, important players emerged and since 2007 prices increased significantly and remained relatively high since then. In this paper we analyse market equilibria in the years 2006 and 2008 by testing for two possible market structure scenarios in this market: perfect competition and an oligopoly setup with major exporters competing in quantities. We conclude from our results that international steam coal trade is not perfectly competitive as there is a large spread between marginal costs and prices and a low capacity utilisation in 2008. Further, trade flows are generally more diversified in reality than in the competitive scenario. However, also the Cournot scenarios fail to accurately explain real market outcomes. We conclude that only more sophisticated models of strategic behaviour can predict market equilibria in international steam coal trade. (orig.)

  4. xLPR Scenario Analysis Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eckert-Gallup, Aubrey Celia [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Martin, Nevin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Clark, Andrew Jordan [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mariner, Paul [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-03-01

    This report describes the methods, results, and conclusions of the analysis of 11 scenarios defined to exercise various options available in the xLPR (Extremely Low Probability of Rupture) Version 2 .0 code. The scope of the scenario analysis is three - fold: (i) exercise the various options and components comprising xLPR v2.0 and defining each scenario; (ii) develop and exercise methods for analyzing and interpreting xLPR v2.0 outputs ; and (iii) exercise the various sampling options available in xLPR v2.0. The simulation workflow template developed during the course of this effort helps to form a basis for the application of the xLPR code to problems with similar inputs and probabilistic requirements and address in a systematic manner the three points covered by the scope.

  5. 500 GeV ILC Operating Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Brau, James E; Barklow, T; Brau, J; Fujii, K; Gao, J; List, J; Walker, N; Yokoya, K

    2015-01-01

    The ILC Technical Design Report documents the design of a 500 GeV linear collider, but does not specify the center-of-mass energy steps of operation for the collider. The ILC Parameters Joint Working Group has studied possible running scenarios, including a realistic estimate of the real time accumulation of integrated luminosity based on ramp-up and upgrade processes, and considered the evolution of the physics outcomes. These physics goals include Higgs precision measurements, top quark measurements and searches for new physics. We present an "optimized" operating scenario and the anticipated evolution of the precision of the ILC measurements.

  6. Sensitivity analysis on fuel scenario associated magnitudes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia Martinez, M.; Alvarez-Velarde, F.

    2014-07-01

    Nuclear fuel cycle scenario analyses are needed as a support for policy makers in terms of sustainability, fuel diversity, security of supply, and social and environmental effects. These analyses are usually aimed to the study of the impact of certain hypotheses on some fuel cycle indicators, without considering the uncertainties on those hypotheses. The expert group of the NEA/OECD on Advanced Fuel Cycle Scenarios, where this work is framed, is devoted to fill this gap, laying the foundations for deep analysis of the sensibilities on fuel cycle indicators. (Author)

  7. Computational Scenario-based Capability Planning

    CERN Document Server

    Abbass, Hussein; Dam, Helen; Baker, Stephen; Whitacre, James M; Sarker, Ruhul; 10.1145/1389095.1389378

    2009-01-01

    Scenarios are pen-pictures of plausible futures, used for strategic planning. The aim of this investigation is to expand the horizon of scenario-based planning through computational models that are able to aid the analyst in the planning process. The investigation builds upon the advances of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to create a novel, flexible and customizable computational capability-based planning methodology that is practical and theoretically sound. We will show how evolutionary computation, in particular evolutionary multi-objective optimization, can play a central role - both as an optimizer and as a source for innovation.

  8. Using Service Scenarios to Model Business Services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    The purpose of the paper is to present and evaluate the notion of service scenarios. A service is work done by a service executor in interaction with a service consumer. A service scenario is a model of a service system and the roles that are played by the actors participating and interacting dur...... of a case study in a public library. The case study indicates that service systems should be understood as socio-technical systems in which service executors and service consumers co-create value in mutual interaction with each other and with a set of shared resources....

  9. Scenario-based table top simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Broberg, Ole; Edwards, Kasper; Nielsen, J.

    2012-01-01

    This study developed and tested a scenario-based table top simulation method in a user-driven innovation setting. A team of researchers worked together with a user group of five medical staff members from the existing clinic. Table top simulations of a new clinic were carried out in a simple model...... including patient scenarios, LEGO figures, shoeboxes, and cardboard. The results indicated that table top simulations is a simple, cheap and powerful tool to generate and test innovative conceptual solutions in the early stages of a design process....

  10. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  11. Maximising the Effectiveness of a Scenario Planning Process: Tips for Scenario Planners in Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayers, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Scenario planning is a tool which can help organisations and people to think about, and plan for, the long-term future. In basic terms, it involves creating a number of in-depth scenarios (stories), each of which tells of a different possible future for an organisation or issue, and considering how each different future might influence…

  12. Scenario-based teaching in undergraduate medical education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patel K

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Kunj Patel, Omar El Tokhy Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UKWe read with great interest the study by Frost et al1 which highlights the importance of scenario-based teaching (SBT of clinical communication in medical undergraduate pediatrics teaching. SBT involves students navigating a storyline based around a complex problem, running in parallel with case-based learning. We were impressed by the results of the SBT program at Cardiff University School of Medicine. As medical students currently on our pediatric rotation at Imperial College London, we have experienced at first hand the benefits of SBT. Throughout the placement, it continues to help us tackle the complexities which arise when communicating with children and their families. We have noted its particular benefit in breaking bad news to families. Without effective teaching on this particular scenario, a failure to grasp this skill could exacerbate patient and parent concerns. Much like the authors of this study highlight,1 we believe specific teaching on communication skills should be a mandatory part of medical undergraduate education at every institution. Imperial College School of Medicine has developed a similar teaching style which has been unparalleled in its benefit to us during our pediatric rotation. Although there is scant literature available specifically addressing communicating with children and parents at undergraduate level, the use of SBT throughout undergraduate medical teaching should not be underestimated. Read the original paper by Frost et al

  13. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  14. Inland human settlement in southern Arabia 55,000 years ago. New evidence from the Wadi Surdud Middle Paleolithic site complex, western Yemen.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delagnes, Anne; Tribolo, Chantal; Bertran, Pascal; Brenet, Michel; Crassard, Rémy; Jaubert, Jacques; Khalidi, Lamya; Mercier, Norbert; Nomade, Sébastien; Peigné, Stéphane; Sitzia, Luca; Tournepiche, Jean-François; Al-Halibi, Mohammad; Al-Mosabi, Ahmad; Macchiarelli, Roberto

    2012-09-01

    The recovery at Shi'bat Dihya 1 (SD1) of a dense Middle Paleolithic human occupation dated to 55 ka BP sheds new light on the role of the Arabian Peninsula at the time of the alleged expansion of modern humans out of Africa. SD1 is part of a complex of Middle Paleolithic sites cut by the Wadi Surdud and interstratified within an alluvial sedimentary basin in the foothills that connect the Yemeni highlands with the Tihama coastal plain. A number of environmental proxies indicate arid conditions throughout a sequence that extends between 63 and 42 ka BP. The lithic industry is geared toward the production of a variety of end products: blades, pointed blades, pointed flakes and Levallois-like flakes with long unmodified cutting edges, made from locally available rhyolite. The occasional exploitation of other local raw materials, that fulfill distinct complementary needs, highlights the multi-functional nature of the occupation. The slightly younger Shi'bat Dihya 2 (SD2) site is characterized by a less elaborate production of flakes, together with some elements (blades and pointed flakes) similar to those found at SD1, and may indicate a cultural continuity between the two sites. The technological behaviors of the SD1 toolmakers present similarities with those documented from a number of nearly contemporaneous assemblages from southern Arabia, the Levant, the Horn of Africa and North Africa. However, they do not directly conform to any of the techno-complexes typical of the late Middle Paleolithic or late Middle Stone Age from these regions. This period would have witnessed the development of local Middle Paleolithic traditions in the Arabian Peninsula, which suggests more complex settlement dynamics and possible population interactions than commonly inferred by the current models of modern human expansion out of Africa. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Leapfrog to the future: Energy scenarios and strategies for Suriname to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lachman, Daniel A., E-mail: danny_lachman@yahoo.com [Institute of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Suriname, Suriname, South America (Suriname)

    2011-09-15

    This paper formulates energy strategies for Suriname. A conceptual model, identifying relationships in the energy sector, is conceived. One of the striking characteristics is that various relationships inhibit significant uncertainty; our contemporary age is characterized by more complex becoming relations, decreasing predictability and increasing chaos. Simple extrapolation of past events is therefore futile, since deviations from anticipated outcomes have significant impacts. The Scenario Planning methodology has been used to deal with this uncertainty. The most uncertain high-impact driving forces that shape the future of the energy sector in Suriname have been identified and are used to create energy scenarios to 2050. Next, robust strategies have been formulated which primarily focus on institutionalization, renewable resources, cost-reflecting tariffs, decentralization of energy supply, and energy efficiency and savings. Leading indicators have been identified that identify towards which scenario the present develops, and hence which set of strategies need to be applied. - Highlights: > The Scenario Planning methodology is advocated, in particular in developing countries. > Using energy scenarios, energy strategies for Suriname to 2050 are conceived. > First, the current state of energy security is assessed. > Next, critical uncertainties are identified to create the scenario logic. > The scenarios (with robustness analysis) are used to create energy strategies.

  16. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension...... or acceptance of the scenario by the participants is at stake, thus compromising learning opportunities. Scenario life savers can principally work by bringing participants back on track of the planned scenario or by adapting the conduction to their actions on the fly. Interventions can be within the logic...... of the scenario or from the "outside," not being part of the scenario itself. Scenario life savers should be anticipated during the design of scenarios and used carefully during their conduction, aiming to maximize the learning for participants. (Sim Healthcare 5: 219-225, 2010)...

  17. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  18. No-arbitrage bounds for financial scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2014-01-01

    We derive no-arbitrage bounds for expected excess returns to generate scenarios used in financial applications. The bounds allow to distinguish three regions: one where arbitrage opportunities will never exist, a second where arbitrage may be present, and a third, where arbitrage opportunities...

  19. The Future of Food: Scenarios for 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hubert, B.; Rosegrant, M.; Boekel, van M.A.J.S.; Ortiz, R.

    2010-01-01

    This background article addresses key challenges of adequately feeding a population of 9 billion by 2050, while preserving the agro-ecosystems from which other services are also expected. One of the scenario-buildings uses the Agrimonde platform, which considers the following steps: choosing the sce

  20. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    OpenAIRE

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario projects less population growth in Nigeria and sharp population decline in China.

  1. NIDI scenario. Strong population decline in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Beer, J.A.A.

    2016-01-01

    United Nations projections assume that by the end of this century one third of the world population will live in India, China or Nigeria. While population growth in India will slow down and the population size of China will decline, population growth in Nigeria will accelerate. A new NIDI scenario

  2. Scenarios and design: Scoping the dialogue space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea; Kimbell, Lucy; Ramirez, Rafael

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the intersections between two futures-oriented domains of practice and research: scenario planning and design. Both are practice-led, with uneasy but productive relationships with theorizing. Exploring their relations offers ways to address challenges faced by interdisciplinar...

  3. Scenario-based Training: Director's Cut

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peeters, M.M.M.; Van den Bosch, K.; Meyer, J-J.Ch.; Neerincx, M.A.

    2011-01-01

    Research regarding autonomous learning shows that freeplay does not result in optimal learning. Combining scenario-based training with intelligent agent technology off ers the possibility to create autonomous training enriched with automated adaptive support delivered by a director agent. We conduct

  4. Scenario simulation of water security in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    OUYANG Zhi-yun; ZHAO Tong-qian; WANG Ru-song; Leif S(O)RLUND; ZHANG Qiao-xian

    2004-01-01

    Limited water resources, increasing demand, low use efficiency, and serious pollution result in severe water resource difficult in China. The evaluation of addressing water problems and the search for effective countermeasures that ensure sustainable water use are key to China's sustainable development. The "compound water security" consists of food security, life security, environmental security, and economic security. By establishing a conceptual model, the water security of China has been simulated in terms of four scenarios called BAU(the business-as-usual scenario), TEC(the technology and economics scenario), IVL(the institution, values, and lifestyles scenario) and TSD(toward sustainable development) in this paper. The results indicated that water crises, especially water shortages, are being experienced now and will continue to do so for a relatively long time in China and that it is possible to reach a basic balance between supply and demand of water and grain under the TSD developing pattern by a series of approaches including technological innovation, policy adjustments, and behaviour inducement.

  5. National FCEV and Hydrogen Fueling Station Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc

    2016-06-09

    This presentation provides a summary of the FY16 activities and accomplishments for NREL's national fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) and hydrogen fueling station scenarios project. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 9, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

  6. Scenarios as methods of Community Building

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2002-01-01

    The significance of the scenario workshop is the combination of creativity, reflection and action helping the participants to imaging and realise desirable futures. It can contribute to fill the gaps between visions of the future and the present situation, giving the participants knowledge and po...

  7. European Water Footprint Scenarios for 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ertug Ercin

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This study develops water footprint scenarios for Europe for 2050, at the country level, based on projections regarding population and economic growth, production and trade patterns, consumption patterns (diets and bioenergy use and technological development. The objective is to estimate possible future changes in the green, blue and grey water footprint (WF of production and consumption, to analyze the main drivers of projected changes and to assess Europe’s future dependence on water resources elsewhere in the world. We develop four scenarios, considering globalization versus regional self-sufficiency, and development driven by economic objectives versus development driven by social and environmental objectives. The study shows that the most critical driver of change affecting Europe’s future WF is the consumption pattern. The WFs of both production and consumption in Western Europe increase under scenarios with high meat consumption and decrease with low-meat scenarios. Besides, additional water demands from increasing biofuel needs will put further pressure on European water resources. The European countries with a large ratio of external to total WF of consumption in 2000 decrease their dependencies on foreign water resources in 2050.

  8. Forlic deliverable 5.1: Persona scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gijsbers, Govert; Leendertse, Matthijs; Leis, Miriam; Kirschner, Paul A.; Hoogveld, Bert; Stoyanov, Slavi; Weber, Mark

    2015-01-01

    This document describes nine persona scenarios. The outcomes of a group concept mapping (GCM) exercise were used as input to create nine personas. The basic data for each persona contains demographic information, its position in a three by three persona matrix, and an overview of the relevant clust

  9. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social lear

  10. Beyond Data: The World of Scenario Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goens, George A.

    2001-01-01

    Leadership involves more than analyzing data and making decisions. Even the most strategically made plans can be circumvented by people or unanticipated events. Scenario planning allows administrators to weave various components (driving forces, predetermined elements, and critical uncertainties) into plausible stories of what futures can unfold.…

  11. Experiments, Passive Observation and Scenario Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoover, Kevin D.; Juselius, Katarina

    that he develops in his famous monograph, The Probability Approach in Econometrics (1944). We show how, once the details of the analogy are systematically understood, the experimental analogy can be used to shed light on theory-consistent cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) scenario analysis. CVAR...

  12. Cell Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardo, Simao; Rodrigues, Antonio; Mihovska, Albena D.

    2013-01-01

    Cell load imbalances in wireless networks degrade performance. Macro and small cell collocated deployments (heterogeneous scenario) constitutes a new problem for load balancing. This paper proposes a novel admission control algorithm for an optimal solution to the assignment of traffic flows...

  13. Linguistic evaluation of terrorist scenarios: example application.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Darby, John L.

    2007-03-01

    In 2005, a group of international decision makers developed a manual process for evaluating terrorist scenarios. That process has been implemented in the approximate reasoning Java software tool, LinguisticBelief, released in FY2007. One purpose of this report is to show the flexibility of the LinguisticBelief tool to automate a custom model developed by others. LinguisticBelief evaluates combinations of linguistic variables using an approximate reasoning rule base. Each variable is comprised of fuzzy sets, and a rule base describes the reasoning on combinations of variables fuzzy sets. Uncertainty is considered and propagated through the rule base using the belief/plausibility measure. This report documents the evaluation and rank-ordering of several example terrorist scenarios for the existing process implemented in our software. LinguisticBelief captures and propagates uncertainty and allows easy development of an expanded, more detailed evaluation, neither of which is feasible using a manual evaluation process. In conclusion, the Linguistic-Belief tool is able to (1) automate an expert-generated reasoning process for the evaluation of the risk of terrorist scenarios, including uncertainty, and (2) quickly evaluate and rank-order scenarios of concern using that process.

  14. Demografische modellen voor scenario-onderzoek

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hoogenveen RT

    1991-01-01

    A demographic model is described that has been used in scenario-research for calculating future population numbers. The demographic model developed is a discrete Markov-model. It calculates the changes in the Netherlands population numbers for each year successively. the model is specially develo

  15. Transport Technologies and Policy Scenarios to 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-10-15

    As part of the major WEC study on Scenarios to 2050, a specific investigation was undertaken on measures required in the transport sector to secure sustainable energy and sustainable mobility in the future. This report outlines the results conducted by a study group of international WEC transport experts and gives concrete policy recommendations to develop sustainable transport systems.

  16. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social

  17. Use of simplifier scenarios for CRM training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, D.

    1984-01-01

    Cockpit resource management (CRM) at Metro Airlines is discussed. The process by which the program of CRM training was initiated is mentioned. Management aspects of various flying scenarios are considered. The transfer of training from the classroom to the field is assessed.

  18. CIVILIZATION SCENARIOS OF DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. N. Kharin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modern world plays an important role civilization factor. In this connection beforeRussiaa task stands forming of civilization identity. A problem consists in that, that exists a few scenarios of civilization development. To their consideration and this article is devoted.

  19. Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

    2015-10-01

    This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

  20. Orchestrating Learning Scenarios for the Borderless Classroom

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tan, Esther; Rusman, Ellen

    2016-01-01

    This part of the symposium focuses on the design of seamless learning experiences in a borderless classroom. There are two parts to this symposium. We start with unpacking various theoretical approaches that inform the instructional design of boundary-crossing learning scenarios, such as social lear

  1. Wiki Based Collaborative Learning in Interuniversity Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katzlinger, Elisabeth; Herzog, Michael A.

    2014-01-01

    In business education advanced collaboration skills and media literacy are important for surviving in a globalized business where virtual communication between enterprises is part of the day-by-day business. To transform these global working situations into higher education, a learning scenario between two universities in Germany and Austria was…

  2. Strategic bidding in electricity markets: An agent-based simulator with game theory for scenario analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinto, Tiago; Praca, Isabel; Morais, Hugo

    2013-01-01

    the behavior that better fits their objectives. This model includes forecasts of competitor players’ actions, to build models of their behavior, in order to define the most probable expected scenarios. Once the scenarios are defined, game theory is applied to support the choice of the ac-tion to be performed......Electricity markets are complex environments, involving a large number of different entities, with specific charac-teristics and objectives, making their decisions and interacting in a dynamic scene. Game-theory has been widely used to sup-port decisions in competitive environments; therefore its...... application in electricity markets can prove to be a high potential tool. This paper proposes a new scenario analysis algorithm, which includes the application of game-theory, to evaluate and preview different scenarios and provide players with the ability to strategically react in order to exhibit...

  3. Using Participatory Scenario Planning to Identify Ecosystem Services in Changing Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecka Malinga

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available There is a growing interest in assessing ecosystem services to improve ecosystem management in landscapes containing a mix of different ecosystems. While methodologies for assessing ecosystem services are constantly improving, only little attention has been given to the identification of which ecosystem services to assess. Service selection is mostly based on current state of the landscape although many landscapes are both inherently complex and rapidly changing. In this study we examine whether scenario development, a tool for dealing with uncertainties and complexities of the future, gives important insights into the selection of ecosystem services in changing landscapes. Using an agricultural landscape in South Africa we compared different sets of services selected for an assessment by four different groups: stakeholders making the scenarios, experts who have read the scenarios, experts who had not read the scenarios, and services derived from literature. We found significant differences among the services selected by different groups, especially between the literature services and the other groups. Cultural services were least common in literature and that list was also most dissimilar in terms of identity, ranking, and numbers of services compared to the other three groups. The services selected by experts and the scenario stakeholders were relatively similar indicating that knowledge of a study area gained through the scenario exercise is not very different from that of experts actively working in the area. Although our results show limited value in using scenario development for improved ecosystem service selection per se, the scenario development process triggers important discussions with local and regional stakeholders about key issues of today, helping to more correctly assess changes in the future.

  4. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-09-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

  5. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O& amp; apos; Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  6. When Things Do Not Go as Expected: Scenario Life Savers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dieckmann, Peter; Lippert, A.; Glavin, R.;

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we discuss scenario life savers - interventions before and during simulation scenarios that allow to create and use relevant learning opportunities, even if unexpected events happen during the conduction of the scenario. Scenario life savers are needed, when the comprehension or acc...

  7. A series of critically challenging case scenarios in moderate to severe psoriasis: a Delphi consensus approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strober, Bruce; Berger, Emily; Cather, Jennifer; Cohen, David; Crowley, Jeffrey J; Gordon, Kenneth B; Gottlieb, Alice; Horn, Elizabeth J; Kavanaugh, Arthur F; Korman, Neal J; Krueger, Gerald G; Leonardi, Craig L; Menter, Alan; Schwartzman, Sergio; Sobell, Jeffrey M; Young, Melodie

    2009-07-01

    Clinical trials for systemic psoriasis therapy typically enroll healthy patients and exclude patients with cardiovascular disease, latent tuberculosis, liver disease, histories of malignancies, viral infections, children, and pregnant or breast-feeding women. Physicians often require guidance for optimum management of severe psoriasis in patients that have a combination of underlying disease states. To provide treatment recommendations for complex psoriasis scenarios, a consensus panel comprising 15 experts in psoriatic disease convened to review and discuss available evidence-based data and to arrive at a consensus for treatment options of difficult cases. An application of the Delphi Method was used to select case scenarios, provide medical treatment options, present the case study with existing medical evidence, and anonymously vote on treatment options. The top 10 treatment options were ranked and statistically analyzed to compare the differences between treatments. The final rankings and analysis provide guidance for practical, safe, and efficacious treatment options in a number of complex psoriasis scenarios.

  8. Management of complex fisheries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frost, Hans Staby; Andersen, Peder; Hoff, Ayoe

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how fisheries economics management issues or problems can be analyzed by using a complex model based on conventional bioeconomic theory. Complex simulation models contain a number of details that make them suitable for practical management advice......, including taking into account the response of the fishermen to implemented management measures. To demonstrate the use of complex management models this paper assesses a number of second best management schemes against a first rank optimum (FRO), an ideal individual transferable quotas (ITQ) system....... This is defined as the management scheme which produces the highest net present value over a 25 year period. The assessed management schemes (scenarios) are composed by several measures as used in the Common Fisheries Policy of the European Union for the cod fishery in the Baltic Sea. The scenarios are total...

  9. Curvaton scenarios with inflaton decays into curvatons

    CERN Document Server

    Byrnes, Christian T; Liddle, Andrew R

    2016-01-01

    We consider the possible decay of the inflaton into curvaton particles during reheating and analyse its effect on curvaton scenarios. Typical decay curvatons are initially relativistic then become non-relativistic, and change the background history of the Universe. We show that this change to the background is the only way in which observational predictions of the scenario are modified. Moreover, once the required amplitude of perturbations is fixed by observation there are no signatures of such decays in other cosmological observables. The decay curvatons can prevent the Universe from becoming dominated by the curvaton condensate, making it impossible to match observations in parts of parameter space. This constrains the branching ratio of the inflaton to curvaton to be less than of order $0.1$ typically. If the branching ratio is below about $10^{-4}$ it has negligible impact on the model parameter space and can be ignored.

  10. The hexagon hypothesis: Six disruptive scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burtles, Jim

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to bring a simple but effective and comprehensive approach to the development, delivery and monitoring of business continuity solutions. To ensure that the arguments and principles apply across the board, the paper sticks to basic underlying concepts rather than sophisticated interpretations. First, the paper explores what exactly people are defending themselves against. Secondly, the paper looks at how defences should be set up. Disruptive events tend to unfold in phases, each of which invites a particular style of protection, ranging from risk management through to business continuity to insurance cover. Their impact upon any business operation will fall into one of six basic scenarios. The hexagon hypothesis suggests that everyone should be prepared to deal with each of these six disruptive scenarios and it provides them with a useful benchmark for business continuity.

  11. Occupational health scenario of Indian informal sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nag, Anjali; Vyas, Heer; Nag, Pranab

    2016-08-05

    Workers in the Indian informal sector are engaged with different occupations. These occupations involve varied work related hazards. These occupational hazards are a consequent risk to health. The study aimed to determine occupational health scenario in the Indian Informal sector. One thousand eleven hundred twenty two workers from five different occupations namely weaving (handloom and power loom), construction, transportation, tobacco processing and fish processing were assessed by interviewer administered health questionnaire. Workers suffered from musculo-skeletal complaints, respiratory health hazards, eye problems and skin related complaints. There was a high prevalence of self-reported occupational health problems in the selected sectors. The study finds that workers have occupational exposures to multiple hazards. The absence of protective guards aggrevate their health condition. The study attempts to draws an immediate attention on the existing health scenario of the Indian Informal sector.

  12. Rolling in the modulated reheating scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kobayashi, Naoya [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 50 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H4 (Canada); Kobayashi, Takeshi; Erickcek, Adrienne L., E-mail: nkobayas@cita.utoronto.ca, E-mail: takeshi@cita.utoronto.ca, E-mail: erickcek@physics.unc.edu [Canadian Institute for Theoretical Astrophysics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario, M5S 3H8 (Canada)

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheating scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  13. Rolling in the Modulated Reheating Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Kobayashi, Naoya; Erickcek, Adrienne L

    2014-01-01

    In the modulated reheated scenario, the field that drives inflation has a spatially varying decay rate, and the resulting inhomogeneous reheating process generates adiabatic perturbations. We examine the statistical properties of the density perturbations generated in this scenario. Unlike earlier analyses, we include the dynamics of the field that determines the inflaton decay rate. We show that the dynamics of this modulus field can significantly alter the amplitude of the power spectrum and the bispectrum, even if the modulus field has a simple potential and its effective mass is smaller than the Hubble rate. In some cases, the evolution of the modulus amplifies the non-Gaussianity of the perturbations to levels that are excluded by recent observations of the cosmic microwave background. Therefore, a proper treatment of the modulus dynamics is required to accurately calculate the statistical properties of the perturbations generated by modulated reheating.

  14. Clinical research monitoring: scenarios and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo Adolfo Sierra Romero

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Clinical research is essential for the development of new drugs, diagnostic tests and new devices. Clinical monitoring is implemented to improve the quality of research and attain high ethical and scientific standards. This review discusses the role of clinical monitors, taking into account the variety of scenarios in which medical research is developed, and highlights the challenges faced by research teams to ensure that patients rights are respected and that the social role of scientific research is preserved. Specific emphasis is given to the ethical dilemmas related to the multiple roles which clinical monitors play in the research framework, mainly those involving the delicate equilibrium between the loyalty to the sponsor and to the research subjects. The essential role of clinical monitoring for research developed in poor healthcare scenarios is highlighted as an approach to get the local infrastructure strengthening needed to achieve an adequate level of good clinical practices.

  15. Scenario Development for Sustainable Food Consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reisch, Lucia; Farsang, Andrea; Jégou, Francois

    in general as well as in the context of the CORPUS project. Moreover, it reviews recent examples of scenario building approaches in the sustainable food domain. The potential roles and applications of different types of scenarios such as backcasting or quantitative models and their benefit for policy making......Over the last few decades, considerable changes in food consumption – such as eating habits, dietary changes, availability and accessability of food – have taken place. These are mainly due to an increase in productivity of the food sector, a greater diversity in product choices and a decrease...... in seasonal dependency due to global trade and storage and process technology. On the demand side, relatively high and stable incomes combined with low food prices have in-creased accessibility, availability and affordability of a highly diverse food supply. Yet, according to the FAO, total food production...

  16. Scenario Crisis Cases in Distance Learning Sessions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antunes, A.

    2013-04-01

    We discuss early results using student-lead role-play of crises and disaster scenarios to encourage engagement in distance learning sessions. The disadvantage of distance learning via web interface—the lack of face-to-face and the ease with which a student can remain quiet—is balanced by the wealth of Internet-accessible media reports of past mission disasters. Capitol College minimizes the lecture component to simply frame each session's open-ended crisis in our Mission Operations engineering course. The students are presented with a historical ‘disaster’ but not its resolution; they present their course of action, then the lecturer steps in to debrief. With a wealth of past cases available on the web, use of scenarios rather than lectures shows early signs of being viable model for encouraging discussion and interaction within distance learning for a variety of course topics.

  17. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    and shows that recycling is superior to incineration with energy recovery, which again is better than landfilling. Cleary (2010) reviewed 20 waste management scenarios assessed in 11 studies published in the period 2002–2008 and concluded that, due to lack of transparency regarding boundary conditions...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...... management systems. The study focuses on Europe in terms of waste composition and exchange with the energy system. The waste management systems modeled are described with respect to waste composition, waste management technologies, mass flows and energy exchange in the systems. Results are first presented...

  18. Parametric Studies for Scenario Earthquakes: Site Effects and Differential Motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panza, G. F.; Panza, G. F.; Romanelli, F.

    2001-12-01

    In presence of strong lateral heterogeneities, the generation of local surface waves and local resonance can give rise to a complicated pattern in the spatial groundshaking scenario. For any object of the built environment with dimensions greater than the characteristic length of the ground motion, different parts of its foundations can experience severe non-synchronous seismic input. In order to perform an accurate estimate of the site effects, and of differential motion, in realistic geometries, it is necessary to make a parametric study that takes into account the complex combination of the source and propagation parameters. The computation of a wide set of time histories and spectral information, corresponding to possible seismotectonic scenarios for different source and structural models, allows us the construction of damage scenarios that are out of reach of stochastic models. Synthetic signals, to be used as seismic input in a subsequent engineering analysis, e.g. for the design of earthquake-resistant structures or for the estimation of differential motion, can be produced at a very low cost/benefit ratio. We illustrate the work done in the framework of a large international cooperation following the guidelines of the UNESCO IUGS IGCP Project 414 "Realistic Modeling of Seismic Input for Megacities and Large Urban Areas" and show the very recent numerical experiments carried out within the EC project "Advanced methods for assessing the seismic vulnerability of existing motorway bridges" (VAB) to assess the importance of non-synchronous seismic excitation of long structures. >http://www.ictp.trieste.it/www_users/sand/projects.html

  19. Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

    2017-06-01

    The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

  20. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  1. Motivating an intergenerational workforce: scenarios for success.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieck, K Lynn

    2007-01-01

    Although much has been written about the challenge of having four generations in the workplace simultaneously, problems of conflict, misunderstanding, and divisiveness continue. This article provides a snapshot of each generation as context. A series of scenarios based on Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs are then presented with insights into how each generation might approach the situation, along with hints for successfully managing toward positive outcomes. The expected outcome is a technique for each generation to look at workplace situations from all perspectives.

  2. Visualization in sporting contexts : the team scenario

    OpenAIRE

    Kazmi, Aqeel H.; O'Grady, Michael J; O'Hare, G. M. P. (Greg M. P.)

    2011-01-01

    Wearable sensor systems require an interactive and communicative interface for the user to interpret data in a meaningful way. The development of adaptive personalization features in a visualization tool for such systems can convey a more meaningful picture to the user of the system. In this paper, a visualization tool called Visualization in Team Scenarios (VTS), which can be used by a coach to monitor an athlete’s physiological parameters, is presented. The VTS has been implemented with a w...

  3. Energy Scenarios For A Sustainable Future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ion Chiuta

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available It is clear that the future is not simplysomething already predetermined that we must acceptblindly: rather, it is open and to a large extent determinedby the course of actions we decide to take. For thisreason, we need to look at the future and its uncertaintiesin an articulated fashion, developing specific tools toconsider both how the future might unfold if we do notact and how we might like the future to unfold if actionwere to be taken.As demonstrated on valuable intellectual exercise forlooking into an uncertain future involves the developmentof “scenarios” intended as logical and plausibleconjectures about how fundamental drivers will affectglobal societies, economics, resource use and theenvironment. The literature review shows a multiplicity ofscenarios, conducted as different scales ranging from thenational to the global scale, with different time horizonsand with a focus on different strategic issues.Exploratory scenarios help prepare for events that,without representing a straight-line continuation of pasttrends, are plausible and entirely possible. Exploratoryscenarios can help a lot to accelerate and calibrate theresponse to new developments, as well as providing astrategic framework technology development policy.Normative scenario has, as its goal, the evolution of adesirable future rather than a future inexorably imposedupon us by the inertia of system. Building a normativescenario requires the creators to clearly define thedesirable characteristics of their future, and to expressthis future in terms of measurable targets.The use of such a scenario process lies as much in theissues it requires us to comfort as the precise details isgenerates. The future will not look exactly like the oneenvisioned: other priorities will intercede and nationalconditions and circumstances will dictate the specifics ofthe energy policies that may be adopted. But such aprocess of interacting around scenarios can providevaluable guidance as to

  4. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. J. Corbett

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic is a sensitive region in terms of climate change and a rich natural resource for global economic activity. Arctic shipping is an important contributor to the region's anthropogenic air emissions, including black carbon – a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow. These emissions are projected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. To understand the impacts of these increased emissions, scientists and modelers require high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories that can be used for regional assessment modeling. This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050 scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. Short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing; a first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase climate forcing due to Arctic ships by at least 17% compared to warming from these vessels' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

  5. Conditional Reasoning: Scenario or context effects

    OpenAIRE

    Valiña, Mª Dolores; Seoane, Gloria; Ghering, Sonnya; Ferraces, Mª José; Fernández-Rey, Xosé

    1992-01-01

    This paper study the importance of contextual factors in reasoning with conditional inference tasks. In this experiment subjects were given conditional sentences in the context of narrative texts, Short stories about scenarios of the daily life were described in this texts. The experiment manipulated: a) context (causal or promises/threats), b) degree of factual relation between antecedent and consequent of conditional (deterministic, probabilistic or without relation), c) congruence betwe...

  6. CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

    2016-12-01

    The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

  7. New procedure of generation of action scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staniszewski, Michał; Wereszczyński, Kamil; Michalczuk, Agnieszka; Fernes, Daniel; Segen, Jakub; Kulbacki, Marek; Wojciechowski, Konrad

    2017-07-01

    Algorithms of tracking and action recognition are still under development and many problems still have to be solved. New methods are usually tested on available benchmarks with defined actions and human behavior however such approach has many limitations. For that reason the authors proposed new procedure of generating random action instances using on graph-based scenarios. Such idea can be applied in creation of different datasets as well as in simulations.

  8. The development of climatic scenarios for Finland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, T.; Tuomenvirta, H. [Finnish Meteorological Inst., Helsinki (Finland); Posch, M. [National Inst. of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    1996-12-31

    One of the main objectives of the Finnish Research Programme on Climate Change (SILMU) has been to assess the possible impacts of future changes in climate due to the enhanced greenhouse effect on natural systems and human activities in Finland. In order to address this objective, it was first necessary to specify the types of climate changes to be expected in the Finnish region. Estimates of future climate are conventionally obtained using numerical models, which simulate the evolution of the future climate in response to radiative forcing due to changes in the composition of the atmosphere (i.e. of greenhouse gases and aerosols). However, there are large uncertainties in the model estimates because current knowledge and understanding of atmospheric processes remains incomplete. Since accurate predictions of climate change are not available, an alternative approach is to develop scenarios. These are plausible projections which reflect the best estimates to the future conditions but at the same time embrace the likely uncertainties attached to these estimates. In order to obtain expert opinion on the most appropriate methods of providing scenarios for SILMU, an International Workshop was organised in 1993. The recommendations of the Workshop formed the basis of the present project, initiated in 1994, to develop standard climatic scenarios for Finland

  9. Glacial CO2 Cycles: A Composite Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Broecker, W. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are three main contributors to the glacial drawdown of atmospheric CO2 content: starvation of the supply of carbon to the ocean-atmosphere reservoir, excess CO2 storage in the deep sea, and surface-ocean cooling. In this talk, I explore a scenario in which all three play significant roles. Key to this scenario is the assumption that deep ocean storage is related to the extent of nutrient stratification of the deep Atlantic. The stronger this stratification, the larger the storage of respiration CO2. Further, it is my contention that the link between Milankovitch insolation cycles and climate is reorganizations of the ocean's thermohaline circulation leading to changes in the deep ocean's CO2 storage. If this is the case, the deep Atlantic d13C record kept in benthic foraminifera shells tells us that deep ocean CO2 storage follows Northern Hemisphere summer insolation cycles and thus lacks the downward ramp so prominent in the records of sea level, benthic 18O and CO2. Rather, the ramp is created by the damping of planetary CO2 emissions during glacial time intervals. As it is premature to present a specific scenario, I provide an example as to how these three contributors might be combined. As their magnitudes and shapes remain largely unconstrained, the intent of this exercise is to provoke creative thinking.

  10. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghanem, Mohamed

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  11. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vera-Aguilera, Jesus; Yousef, Hindi; Beltran-Melgarejo, Diego; Teng, Teng Hugh; Jan, Ramos; Mok, Mary; Vera-Aguilera, Carlos; Moreno-Aguilera, Eduardo

    2016-01-01

    Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice. PMID:27293440

  12. Clinical Scenarios for Discordant Anti-Xa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jesus Vera-Aguilera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Anti-Xa test measures the activity of heparin against the activity of activated coagulation factor X; significant variability of anti-Xa levels in common clinical scenarios has been observed. Objective. To review the most common clinical settings in which anti-Xa results can be bias. Evidence Review. Guidelines and current literature search: we used PubMed, Medline, Embase, and MEDION, from 2000 to October 2013. Results. Anti-Xa test is widely used; however the assay underestimates heparin concentration in the presence of significant AT deficiency, pregnancy, end stage renal disease, and postthrombolysis and in patients with hyperbilirubinemia; limited published data evaluating the safety and effectiveness of anti-Xa assays for managing UH therapy is available. Conclusions and Relevance. To our knowledge this is the first paper that summarizes the most common causes in which this assay can be affected, several “day to day” clinical scenarios can modify the outcomes, and we concur that these rarely recognized scenarios can be affected by negative outcomes in the daily practice.

  13. Multi-scale narratives from an IA perspective: Part I European and Mediterranean scenario development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, K.; Patel, M.; Rothman, D.

    2006-01-01

    Desertification in the Northern Mediterranean region can be effectively managed only through an understanding of the principal ecological, socio-cultural and economic drivers. Scenarios can play an important role in the understanding of such a complex system. Following the fundamentals of Integrated

  14. Combining backcasting and exploratory scenarios to develop robust water strategies in face of uncertain futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van M.; Kok, K.

    2015-01-01

    Water management strategies in times of global change need to be developed within a complex and uncertain environment. Scenarios are often used to deal with uncertainty. A novel backcasting methodology has been tested in which a normative objective (e.g. adaptive water management) is backcasted with

  15. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur...

  16. Comparing presence, workload and situational awareness in a collaborative real world and augmented reality scenario

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Datcu, D.; Lukosch, S.G.; Lukosch, H.K.

    2013-01-01

    This paper compares presence, workload and situational awareness in a real world and augmented reality scenario when collaboratively solving a complex problem. A game of jointly building a tower of colored blocks is used as an approximation of a shared task. Individual expertise is modeled as the po

  17. Contemporary art and its commercial markets: a report on current conditions and future scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lind, M.; Velthuis, O.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary Art and Its Commercial Markets: A Report on Current Conditions and Future Scenarios maps and analyzes the complex and contested entanglements of contemporary art and its commercial markets. Contemporary art as an asset category and celebrity accessory, the rise of the art fair, and the

  18. Contemporary art and its commercial markets: a report on current conditions and future scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lind, M.; Velthuis, O.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary Art and Its Commercial Markets: A Report on Current Conditions and Future Scenarios maps and analyzes the complex and contested entanglements of contemporary art and its commercial markets. Contemporary art as an asset category and celebrity accessory, the rise of the art fair, and the

  19. Modelling Sustainable Development Scenarios of Croatian Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pašičko, Robert; Stanić, Zoran; Debrecin, Nenad

    2010-05-01

    The main objective of power system sustainable development is to provide the security of electricity supply required to underpin economic growth and increase the quality of living while minimizing adverse environmental impacts. New challenges such as deregulation, liberalization of energy markets, increased competition on energy markets, growing demands on security of supply, price insecurities and demand to cut CO2 emissions, are calling for better understanding of electrical systems modelling. Existing models are not sufficient anymore and planners will need to think differently in order to face these challenges. Such a model, on the basis on performed simulations, should enable planner to distinguish between different options and to analyze sustainability of these options. PLEXOS is an electricity market simulation model, used for modeling electrical system in Croatia since 2005. Within this paper, generation expansion scenarios until 2020 developed for Croatian Energy Strategy and modeled in PLEXOS. Development of sustainable Croatian energy scenario was analyzed in the paper - impacts of CO2 emission price and wind generation. Energy Strategy sets goal for 1200 MW from wind power plants in 2020. In order to fully understand its impacts, intermittent nature of electricity generation from wind power plant was modeled. We conclude that electrical system modelling using everyday growing models has proved to be inevitable for sustainable electrical system planning in complex environment in which power plants operate today.

  20. Computational Study of Scenarios Regarding Explosion Risk Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasin, Nicolae-Ioan; Mihai Pasculescu, Vlad; Florea, Gheorghe-Daniel; Cornel Suvar, Marius

    2016-10-01

    Exploration in order to discover new deposits of natural gas, upgrading techniques to exploit these resources and new ways to convert the heat capacity of these gases into industrial usable energy is the research areas of great interest around the globe. But all activities involving the handling of natural gas (exploitation, transport, combustion) are subjected to the same type of risk: the risk to explosion. Experiments carried out physical scenarios to determine ways to reduce this risk can be extremely costly, requiring suitable premises, equipment and apparatus, manpower, time and, not least, presenting the risk of personnel injury. Taking in account the above mentioned, the present paper deals with the possibility of studying the scenarios of gas explosion type events in virtual domain, exemplifying by performing a computer simulation of a stoichiometric air - methane explosion (methane is the main component of natural gas). The advantages of computer-assisted imply are the possibility of using complex virtual geometries of any form as the area of deployment phenomenon, the use of the same geometry for an infinite number of settings of initial parameters as input, total elimination the risk of personnel injury, decrease the execution time etc. Although computer simulations are hardware resources consuming and require specialized personnel to use the CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) techniques, the costs and risks associated with these methods are greatly diminished, presenting, in the same time, a major benefit in terms of execution time.

  1. Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests in South America play a key role in the provision of ecosystem services such as carbon sinks, biodiversity conservation, and global climate regulation. In previous decades, Bolivian forests have mainly been deforested by the expansion of agricultural frontier development, driven by the growing demands for beef and other productions. In the mid-2000s the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party rose to power in Bolivia with the promise of promoting an alternative development model that would respect the environment. The party passed the world's first laws granting rights to the environment, which they termed Mother Earth (Law No. 300 of 2012), and proposed an innovative framework that was expected to develop radical new conservation policies. The MAS conservationist discourse, policies, and productive practices, however, have since been in permanent tension. The government continues to guarantee food production through neo-extractivist methods by promoting the notion to expand agriculture from 3 to 13 million ha, risking the tropical forests and their ecosystem services. These actions raise major environmental and social concerns, as the potential impacts of such interventions are still unknown. The objective of this study is to explore an innovative land use modeling approach to simulate how the growing demand for land could affect future deforestation trends in Bolivia. We use the LuccME framework to create a spatially-explicit land cover change model and run it under three different deforestation scenarios, spanning from the present-2050. In the Sustainability scenario, deforestation reaches 17,703,786 ha, notably in previously deforested or degraded areas, while leaving forest extensions intact. In the Middle of the road scenario, deforestation and degradation move toward new or paved roads spreading across 25,698,327 ha in 2050, while intact forests are located in Protected Areas (PAs). In the Fragmentation scenario, deforestation expands to almost

  2. The HayWired earthquake scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detweiler, Shane T.; Wein, Anne M.

    2017-04-24

    ForewordThe 1906 Great San Francisco earthquake (magnitude 7.8) and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake (magnitude 6.9) each motivated residents of the San Francisco Bay region to build countermeasures to earthquakes into the fabric of the region. Since Loma Prieta, bay-region communities, governments, and utilities have invested tens of billions of dollars in seismic upgrades and retrofits and replacements of older buildings and infrastructure. Innovation and state-of-the-art engineering, informed by science, including novel seismic-hazard assessments, have been applied to the challenge of increasing seismic resilience throughout the bay region. However, as long as people live and work in seismically vulnerable buildings or rely on seismically vulnerable transportation and utilities, more work remains to be done.With that in mind, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners developed the HayWired scenario as a tool to enable further actions that can change the outcome when the next major earthquake strikes. By illuminating the likely impacts to the present-day built environment, well-constructed scenarios can and have spurred officials and citizens to take steps that change the outcomes the scenario describes, whether used to guide more realistic response and recovery exercises or to launch mitigation measures that will reduce future risk.The HayWired scenario is the latest in a series of like-minded efforts to bring a special focus onto the impacts that could occur when the Hayward Fault again ruptures through the east side of the San Francisco Bay region as it last did in 1868. Cities in the east bay along the Richmond, Oakland, and Fremont corridor would be hit hardest by earthquake ground shaking, surface fault rupture, aftershocks, and fault afterslip, but the impacts would reach throughout the bay region and far beyond. The HayWired scenario name reflects our increased reliance on the Internet and telecommunications and also alludes to the

  3. Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

    2015-12-01

    Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

  4. 3D Simulation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Scenario Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    王晓玲; 孙小沛; 张胜利; 孙蕊蕊; 李瑞金; 朱泽彪

    2016-01-01

    The occurrence of storm surge disaster is often accompanied with floodplain, overflow, dike breach and other complex phenomena, while current studies on storm surge flooding are more concentrated on the 1D/2D numerical simulation of single disaster scenario (floodplain, overflow or dike breach), ignoring the composite ef-fects of various phenomena. Therefore, considering the uncertainty in the disaster process of storm surge, scenario analysis was firstly proposed to identify the composite disaster scenario including multiple phenomena by analyzing key driving forces, building scenario matrix and deducing situation logic. Secondly, by combining the advantages of k-ωand k-εmodels in the wall treatment, a shear stress transmission k-ωmodel coupled with VOF was proposed to simulate the 3D flood routing for storm surge disaster. Thirdly, risk degree was introduced to make the risk analysis of storm surge disaster. Finally, based on the scenario analysis, four scenarios with different storm surge intensity (100-year and 200-year frequency) were identified in Tianjin Binhai New Area. Then, 3D numerical simulation and risk map were made for the case.

  5. Coherent delocalization: Views of entanglement in different scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    León-Montiel, R de J; Moya-Cessa, H M; Torres, J P

    2015-01-01

    The concept of entanglement was originally introduced to explain correlations existing between two spatially separated systems, that cannot be described using classical ideas. Interestingly, in recent years, it has been shown that similar correlations can be observed when considering different degrees of freedom of a single system, even a classical one. Surprisingly, it has also been suggested that entanglement might be playing a relevant role in certain biological processes, such as the functioning of pigment-proteins that constitute light-harvesting complexes of photosynthetic bacteria. The aim of this work is to show that the presence of entanglement in all of these different scenarios should not be unexpected, once it is realized that the very same mathematical structure can describe all of them. We show this by considering three different, realistic cases in which the only condition for entanglement to exist is that a single excitation is coherently delocalized between the different subsystems that compo...

  6. The Future of Land Use in the United States: Downscaling SRES Emission Scenarios to Ecoregions and Pixels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Sohl, T. L.; Sayler, K.; Bouchard, M. A.; Reker, R.; Sleeter, R. R.; Zhu, Z.; Auch, R.; Acevedo, W.; Soulard, C. E.; Griffith, G.

    2011-12-01

    Scenario analysis has emerged as a useful tool for evaluating uncertain futures in ecological systems. We describe research initiated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to develop a comprehensive portfolio of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) scenarios for the United States. The USGS has identified LULC scenarios as a focal area of future research. Scenarios are used to assist in the understanding of possible future developments in complex systems that typically have high levels of scientific uncertainty. Scenarios generally require knowledge of history and current conditions, and specific understanding about how drivers of change have acted to influence the historical and current condition. We describe methods and results of downscaling LULC and associated narrative storylines from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). The downscaling methods leverage three primary sources of information: 1) comprehensive land-use histories developed through remote sensing and survey data, 2) modeled LULC outputs from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), and 3) expert knowledge of regional land change. First, national and ecoregional narrative storylines were derived from the global IPCC framework. Based on the characteristics of downscaled narrative storylines, experts used historical data and information on the rates and types of LULC change, in conjunction with coarse-scale IAM projections of land use, to produce future quantitative scenarios. An accounting model was developed to handle all aspects of scenario downscaling. Here we present the methods used to construct ecoregion-specific scenarios of LULC change consistent with the IPCC-SRES scenarios, as well as results at multiple geographic scales. The USGS LandCarbon assessment is implementing a scenario-based approach for projecting changes in LULC that may result in changes to ecosystem carbon flux and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results described

  7. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

  8. Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

  9. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  10. INFORMATION SCENARIOS OVER THE RISK IN INSURANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Rodica Tirlea

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Risks management means identifying them, assessing, quantifying and strategy to counter them, and finding solutions to some levers to diminish or even eliminate the possibility of developing or their consequences. Hung everywhere, risk is associated with uncertain situations and opportunities. The consequences of risk can result in adverse or positive effects related to the activity of the insurance undertaking or of the reinsurance undertaking. The risk has a pronounced randomly character, and its presence in the field of insurance undertakings and reinsurance. This can be explained by the fact that the risks are taken by these companies and have direct effects on their financial results during the period of validity of the contractual relations. The results of risk effects have an impact on the results of activity of insurance companies. The financial impact of a negative event, exceed the sum of the individual loss, leading in some cases to bankruptcy. The financial impact is due to the positive opportunities, which have not made an appearance, and the first event to transform into income. An important role is the responsibility of the information system, providing solutions based on scenarios, by electronic data processing, consider all types of consequences of a hazard and allow insurance companies and reinsurance, on the other hand, to calculate all the possible consequences of a given event and the ultimate financial impact on them, and finally, to make decisions to base decisions for various insurance products and reinsurance. People insurance records for each situation. In practice the scenario method is only used to make specific estimates for different scenarios depending on the circumstances, which has a certain probability of realization, for the favorable; for the neutral and negative and gives solutions for each individual, taking into account certain criteria. For example, we will present a life insurance in several poses.

  11. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linde, A.; Mukhanov, V.; Vikman, A.

    2010-02-01

    In a recent paper, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in Khoury are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  12. On adiabatic perturbations in the ekpyrotic scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Linde, A; Vikman, A

    2009-01-01

    In a recent paper arXiv:0910.2230, Khoury and Steinhardt proposed a way to generate adiabatic cosmological perturbations with a nearly flat spectrum in a contracting Universe. To produce these perturbations they used a regime in which the equation of state exponentially rapidly changed during a short time interval. Leaving aside the singularity problem and the difficult question about the possibility to transmit these perturbations from a contracting Universe to the expanding phase, we will show that the methods used in arXiv:0910.2230 are inapplicable for the description of the cosmological evolution and of the process of generation of perturbations in this scenario.

  13. Postulated accident scenarios in weapons disassembly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Payne, S.S. [Dept. of Energy, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    1997-06-01

    A very brief summary of three postulated accident scenarios for weapons disassembly is provided in the paper. The first deals with a tetrahedral configuration of four generic pits; the second, an infinite planar array of generic pits with varying interstitial water density; and the third, a spherical shell with internal mass suspension in water varying the size and mass of the shell. Calculations were performed using the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon transport code MCNP4A. Preliminary calculations pointed to a need for higher resolution of small pit separation regimes and snapshots of hydrodynamic processes of water/plutonium mixtures.

  14. Scenarios of hydrogen production from wind power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaric, Mario

    2010-09-15

    Since almost total amount of hydrogen is currently being produced from natural gas, other ways of cleaner and 'more renewable' production should be made feasible in order to make benchmarks for total 'hydrogen economy'. Hydrogen production from wind power combined with electrolysis imposes as one possible framework for new economy development. In this paper various wind-to-hydrogen scenarios were calculated. Cash flows of asset based project financing were used as decision making tool. Most important parameters were identified and strategies for further research and development and resource allocation are suggested.

  15. CFDP Configuration: Enclid and Juice Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valverde, Alberto; Taylor, Chris; Montesinos, Juan Antonio; Maiorano, Elena; Colombo, Cyril; Erd, Christian; Magistrati, Giorgio

    2014-08-01

    This paper presents the work done within the ESA ESTEC Data Systems Division, targeting the implementation of CFDP in future ESA Science Missions. EUCLID and JUICE currently include CCSDS File Delivery Protocol (CFDP) as baseline for payload data transfer to ground. The two missions have completely different characteristics, although both present quite demanding scenarios. Using the communication link characteristics as an input, some simulations have been performed to optimize the CFDP configuration and get some preliminary figures on the retransmission overhead, payload data bandwidth and number of parallel transactions needed to maintain full bandwidth utilization. The paper provides some guidelines on CFDP configuration and usage that can be useful in future CFDP implementations.

  16. Robustness of braneworld scenarios against tensorial perturbations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazeia, D; Menezes, R; Olmo, Gonzalo J; Rubiera-Garcia, D

    2015-01-01

    Inspired by the peculiarities of the effective geometry of crystalline structures, we reconsider thick brane scenarios from a metric-affine perspective. We show that for a rather general family of theories of gravity, whose Lagrangian is an arbitrary function of the metric and the Ricci tensor, the background and scalar field equations can be written in first-order form, and tensorial perturbations have a non negative definite spectrum, which makes them stable under linear perturbations regardless of the form of the gravity Lagrangian. We find, in particular, that the tensorial zero modes are exactly the same as predicted by Einstein's theory regardless of the scalar field and gravitational Lagrangians.

  17. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2012-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban...... region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change in the metropolitan area of Copenhagen, Denmark, and the impact of the current regional planning...

  18. The teaching profession: scenarios, profiles and tendencies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Palomero Fernández

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article introduces the special issue of the Revista Electrónica Interuniversitaria de Formación del Profesorado, 35, volumen 13 (4 entitled The teaching profession: Scenarios, profiles and tendencies. It contains contributions from authors affiliated to twenty-eight different institutions across five countries: Spain, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina and Peru. The twenty-eight articles included are followed by a number of PhD thesis summaries and book reviews, whose general framework is that of the teaching profession.

  19. Improving exposure scenario definitions within REACH

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lee, Jihyun; Pizzol, Massimo; Thomsen, Marianne

    instruments to support a precautionary chemicals management system and to protect receptor’s health have also been increasing. Since 2007, the European Union adopted REACH (the Regulation on Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and Restriction of Chemicals): REACH makes industry responsible for assessing...... the different background exposure between two countries allows in fact the definition of a common framework for improving exposure scenarios within REACH system, for monitoring environmental health, and for increasing degree of circularity of resource and substance flows. References 1. European Commission...

  20. Experimental observations of boric acid precipitation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vaghetto, R., E-mail: r.vaghetto@tamu.edu; Childs, M., E-mail: masonchilds@tamu.edu; Jones, P., E-mail: pgjones87@tamu.edu; Lee, S., E-mail: sayalee@tamu.edu; Kee, E., E-mail: erniekee@gmail.com; Hassan, Y.A., E-mail: y-hassan@tamu.edu

    2017-02-15

    During a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Light Water Reactors (LWR), borated water is injected into the core through the safety injection system. The continuous vaporization of the water from the core may increase the concentration of boric acid in the core that, under certain conditions may reach the solubility limit and precipitate. This includes scenarios where the liquid water supply to the core is affected by possible blockages due to debris accumulation. Questions have been raised on the effects of the precipitate in the core on the flow behavior, including the possibility of additional blockages produced by precipitate accumulation. A simple experimental facility was constructed to perform experimental observations of the behavior of borated water under the combined effects of the boiling and the boric acid precipitation (BAP). The facility consists of a transparent polycarbonate vertical pipe where forty-five heated rods have been installed to supply the power to the water to reach the saturation temperature, and maintain a desired boil-off rate. The layout and geometry of the experimental apparatus were conceived to emulate a simplified core of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR). Experimental observations have been conducted under two different conditions. Preliminary tests were conducted to observe the behavior of the water and the boric acid precipitate during a boil-off scenario without borated water addition (decreasing water level). During the main test runs, borated water was constantly injected from the top of the test section to maintain a constant mixture level in the test section. Both tests assumed no flow from the bottom of the test section which may be the case of PWR LOCA scenarios in presence of debris-generated core blockage. The observations performed with a set of cameras installed around the test section showed interesting effects of the vapor bubbles on the boric acid precipitate migration and accumulation in the test section. The

  1. Probabilistic results for a mobile service scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Jesper; Yiu, Man Lung

    We consider the following stochastic model for a mobile service scenario. Consider a stationary Poisson process in Rd, with its points radially ordered with respect to the origin (the anchor); if d = 2, the points may correspond to locations of e.g. restaurants. A user, with a location different...... the inferred privacy region is a random set obtained by an adversary who only knows the anchor and the points received from the server, where the adversary ‘does the best' to infer the possible locations of the user. Probabilistic results related to the communication cost and the inferred privacy region...

  2. Emergent physics: Fermi-point scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volovik, Grigory

    2008-08-28

    The Fermi-point scenario of emergent gravity has the following consequences: gravity emerges together with fermionic and bosonic matter; emergent fermionic matter consists of massless Weyl fermions; emergent bosonic matter consists of gauge fields; Lorentz symmetry persists well above the Planck energy; space-time is naturally four dimensional; the Universe is naturally flat; the cosmological constant is naturally small or zero; the underlying physics is based on discrete symmetries; 'quantum gravity' cannot be obtained by quantization of Einstein equations; and there is no contradiction between quantum mechanics and gravity, etc.

  3. Intervehicle Communication Research – Communication Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Šarūnas Stanaitis

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Recently intervehicle communications are attracting much attention from industry and academia. Upcoming standard for intervehicle communication IEEE 802.11p, known as Wireless Access in Vehicular Environments (WAVE, is still in its draft stage, but already coming into final standardization phase. Problematic, regarding mobile WAVE nodes, are described in several articles, simulations prepared and experiments done. But most of these works do not consider possible maximal communication load. This paper presents intervehicle communication scenario in respect to radio communications, mobility and other aspects of vehicular environments.Article in English

  4. Critical outcomes: clinical and team performance across acute illness scenarios in emergency departments of critical access hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Nana Ekua; Baker, David; Gallo, Jonathan; Slonim, Anthony D

    2012-01-01

    In their provision of acute care services, emergency department (ED) providers in critical access hospitals (CAHs) are uniquely challenged by limitations in personnel, facility resources, and available expertise. We sought to define the impact of team behaviors among ED staff in CAHs on clinical performance by studying the relationship between team and clinical performance scores across 100 simulated scenarios. Team and clinical performance scores were calculated for each scenario using standardized checklists to quantify goal achievement and aggregated across teams and scenario types. These scores were compared using bivariate analysis and correlated with clinical and team performance outcomes using Pearson's correlation (r coefficient). There was a positive correlation between team and clinical performance across all scenarios; the relationship was statistically significant (pteam performance may be a function of the critical care event itself or the unique characteristics of CAHs that make them more vulnerable when faced with high acuity, complex, and infrequently encountered clinical scenarios. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  5. Scenario Prediction and Analysis of Urban Growth Using SLEUTH Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FENG Hui-Hui; LIU Hui-Ping; L(U) Ying

    2012-01-01

    Scenario prediction was introduced to better understand urban dynamics and to support urban planning.Taking the Dongguan central urban area of the Pearl River Delta,China as an example,three urban development scenarios,historical trend (HT) scenario,forest protection (FP) scenario,and growth restriction (GR) scenario,were designed and transplanted into the SLEUTH model through the parameter self-modification method.The quantitative analysis results showed that the urban area would expand continuously from 2003 to 2030 under the HT scenario.More land resources would be saved under the GR scenario than FP scenario.Furthermore,the urban growth under the HT and FP scenarios would come to a steady state by 2020,while this deadline of the GR scenario would be postponed to 2025.The spatial pattern analysis using five spatial metrics,class area,number of patches,largest patch index,edge density,and contagion index,showed that under all the scenarios,the urban patches would become bigger and the form would become more compact,and the urban form under the GR scenario would be the smallest and most heterogeneous.These demonstrated that the GR scenario was more effective in meeting the goal of land protection and sustainable development for the study area.

  6. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  7. Robustness of WLO-scenarios; Bestendigheid van WLO-scenario's

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hilbers, H.; Snellen, D.

    2010-12-15

    Developments in demography, economy and mobility have been showing major fluctuations in the last decade. As a result the question rose whether the WLO future scenarios, which provide an important basis for the spatial policy of the Dutch government, are still usable. This turns out to be the case. Most of the fluctuations of recent years are still within the margins of the sketched scenarios. [Dutch] De ontwikkelingen in demografie, economie en mobiliteit vertonen de laatste tien jaar grote schommelingen. Daarmee rees de vraag of de WLO-toekomstscenario's, die een belangrijke basis vormen voor het ruimtelijk beleid van de rijksoverheid, nog steeds bruikbaar zijn. Dat blijkt zo te zijn. De schommelingen van de laatste jaren vallen merendeels nog steeds binnen de marges van de geschetste scenario's.

  8. Study on Earth Radiation Budget mission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dlhopolsky, R.; Hollmann, R.; Mueller, J.; Stuhlmann, R. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Atmosphaerenphysik

    1997-12-31

    The goal of this study is to study optimized satellite configurations for observation of the radiation balance of the earth. We present a literature survey of earth radiation budget missions and instruments. We develop a parametric tool to simulate realistic multiple satellite mission scenarios. This tool is a modular computer program which models satellite orbits and scanning operation. We use Meteosat data sampled at three hour intervals as a database to simulate atmospheric scenes. Input variables are satellite equatorial crossing time and instrument characteristics. Regional, zonal and global monthly averages of shortwave and longwave fluxes for an ideal observing system and several realistic satellite scenarios are produced. Comparisons show that the three satellite combinations which have equatorial crossing times at midmorning, noon and midafternoon provide the best shortwave monitoring. Crossing times near sunrise and sunset should be avoided for the shortwave. Longwave diurnal models are necessary over and surfaces and cloudy regions, if there are only two measurements made during daylight hours. We have found in the shortwave inversion comparison that at least 15% of the monthly regional errors can be attributed to the shortwave anisotropic models used. (orig.) 68 refs.

  9. Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-08-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

  10. Using game scenarios for teaching novice programmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjie Hu

    Full Text Available As programming educators we need to find ways to engage our students. The students we see today have been called the Nintendo generation. Such students are continually exposed to fast-paced sound, graphics, animation and games. It can be argued that these are the kinds of things that Nintendo generation students want to develop when learning computer science. As a result, computer programming educators have started to use games to engage and motivate students who are learning programming. However, there are difficulties in teaching novices to program using games. In many cases, it is too complicated for novices to begin programming with the extensive packages, libraries, and available object oriented languages when they are required to develop games. Moreover, the games development may seem trivial to the Nintendo generation if we do not include artificial intelligence (AI. Unfortunately, AI algorithm development is not appropriate for novices who are still trying to grasp the simple syntax and semantics of programming. This paper reports on research that explores how educators can motivate students to learn programming by using simple game scenarios. A revised version of Bloom\\'s taxonomy is employed as a framework to aid in the creation of teaching resources that utilise game scenarios as exemplars, exercises and assessments. Finally, some recommendations are made on how the teaching of programming might be improved through a game approach to teaching and learning.

  11. Knowledge Management in Economic Downturn: Indian Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mehta

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge management is becoming an indispensable aspect of most of the modern business organizations. It is considered as a corporate cost savings process to augment performance capabilities with broader availability and utilization of major corporate knowledge assets. Knowledge management is the basis of all planning, all development and all progress ofan organization. It is one of the significant ingredients, which makes the accessibility of acceptance with understanding of learning. With recession encompassing the globe, theorganizations are passionately engaged in cost cutting practices to maintain profitability and competitiveness. When enterprises realize that developing and sharing knowledge is pivotal tosustain a cutting edge, the management can decide to place knowledge management high on their agenda- especially during economic turmoil. The Indian organizations have exceedingly done well during the economic turmoil. The present paper is an attempt to study knowledge management during recession in Indian scenario. Major challenges faced by the organizations are highlighted along with strategies to overcome such challenges are presented by the authors.Keywords: knowledge, knowledge management, recession, innovation, Indian scenario.

  12. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  13. Scenarios for the South African Water Sector in 2025; Presentation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Funke, Nicola S

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available do to ensure they have the scenario information they need to make important decisions at their disposal? • Develop scenarios when needed • Engage with science councils, research organisations and boundary organisations to access latest relevant...

  14. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  15. Electrical-Generation Scenarios for China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S.; Krakowski, R.A.

    2002-03-01

    The China Energy Technology Program (CETP) used both optimizing and simulation energy- economic-environmental (E3) models to assess tradeoffs in the electricity-generation sector for a range of fuel, transport, generation, and distribution options. The CETP is composed of a range of technical tasks or activities, including Energy Economics Modeling (EEM, optimizations), Electric Sector Simulation (ESS, simulations), Life Cycle Analyses (LCA, externalization) of energy systems, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analyses (MCDA, integration). The scope of CETP is limited to one province (Shandong), to one economic sector (electricity), and to one energy sector (electricity). This document describes the methods, approaches, limitations, sample results, and future/needed work for the EEM ( optimization-based modeling) task that supports the overall goal of CETP. An important tool used by the EEM task is based on a Linear Programming (LP) optimization model that considers 17 electricity-generation technologies utilizing 14 fuel forms (type, composition, source) in a 7-region transportation model of China's electricity demand and supply system over the period 2000-2030; Shandong is one of the seven regions modeled. The China Regional Electricity Trade Model (CRETM) is used to examine a set of energy-environment-economy E3-driven scenarios to quantify related policy implications. The development of electricity production mixes that are optimized under realistically E3 constraints is determined through regional demands for electricity that respond to exogenous assumptions on income (GDP) and electricity prices through respective time-dependent elasticities. Constraints are applied to fuel prices, transportation limits, resource availability, introduction (penetration) rates of specific technology, and (where applicable) to local, regional, and countrywide emission rates of CO{sub 2}, SO{sub 2} and NO{sub x}. Importantly, future inter- regional energy flows are optimized with

  16. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  17. Mediated Scenarios: The Infusion of Art and Design in Scenario Practices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2014-01-01

    Fellowship investigates scenarios mediated through cutting-edge gaming,visualization, simulation and design techniques. The focus on mediated practices of foresight pushes beyond an infusion of art and design into scenarios in an instrumental way, making moreaesthetically palatable futures. Rather what I......), often fail to meaningfullyconnect with the situation, decision-makers or concerns at hand, and tend to lean towardsexperts. Some of these new mediated practices shift away from more technocratic models ofparticipation that often display an impoverish understanding of the co-production of technologyand...

  18. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...... play-throughs of the prototype. We then carried out a user study and ran statistical analyses to test if children would perceive the game scenarios as intended by scenario designers in terms of conflict....

  19. Scenario-building considerations for financial planning models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Murray, S.; Carino, D.

    1994-12-31

    The construction of scenarios is an essential model-building step in stochastic programming. When a discrete sample of scenarios is chosen to represent a continuity of potential outcomes, scenario choice can impact both solution speed and quality. For financial planning models, techniques are discussed that ensure a scenario set matches moments of the continuous distribution and improvements in solution speed and quality are investigated.

  20. Benchmarking energy scenarios for China: perspectives from top-down, economic and bottom-up, technical modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This study uses a soft-linking methodology to harmonise two complex global top-down and bottom-up models with a regional China focus. The baseline follows the GDP and demographic trends of the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP2) scenario, down-scaled for China, while the carbon tax scenario......-specific modelling results further. These new sub-regional China features can now be used for a more detailed analysis of China's regional developments in a global context....

  1. Scenarios for cutting down energy-related climate gas emissions in Germany; Szenarien zur Minderung energiebedingten Klimagasemissionen in Deutschland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hake, J.F.; Kuckshinrichs, W. [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe Systemforschung und Technologische Entwicklung (STE)

    1998-12-31

    Developing successful strategies for cutting down climate gas emissions is an extremely complex task. This goal can be aimed at by a combination of measures. But the results of individual scenarios are no immediate clue to their practicability. The results of scenarios must always be discussed within the context of the assumptions made and, where applicable, the targets set. Consequently, their informative value is limited. The contribution of scenarios to the answering of energy-political issues is that they define possible scope for action. (orig.)

  2. Random Scenario Generation for a Multiple Target Tracking Environment Evaluation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hussain, Dil Muhammad Akbar

    2006-01-01

    The paper presents a simulation study on the generation of a random scenario for the performance of track splitting algorithm on a digital signal processor.  Much of the previous work [1] was done on specific (deterministic) scenarios. One of the reasons for considering the specific scenarios...

  3. Effects of Scenario Planning on Participant Mental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glick, Margaret B.; Chermack, Thomas J.; Luckel, Henry; Gauck, Brian Q.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to assess the effects of scenario planning on participant mental model styles. Design/methodology/approach: The scenario planning literature is consistent with claims that scenario planning can change individual mental models. These claims are supported by anecdotal evidence and stories from the practical…

  4. On the Impact of Building Attenuation Models in VANET Simulations of Urban Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Urquiza-Aguiar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Buildings are important elements of cities for VANETs, since these obstacles may attenuate communications between vehicles. Consequently, the impact of buildings has to be considered as part of the attenuation model in VANET simulations of urban scenarios. However, the more elaborated the model, the more information needs to be processed during the simulation, which implies longer processing times. This complexity in simulations is not always worth it, because simplified channel models occasionally offer very accurate results. We compare three approaches to model the impact of buildings in the channel model of simulated VANETs in two urban scenarios. The simulation results for our evaluation scenarios of a traffic-efficiency application indicate that modeling the influence of buildings in urban areas as the total absence of communication between vehicles gives similar results to modeling such influence in a more realistic fashion and could be considered a conservative bound in the performance metrics.

  5. Adaptive memory: the survival scenario enhances item-specific processing relative to a moving scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Griffith, Samantha E; Burns, Amy D

    2013-01-01

    Nairne, Thompson, and Pandeirada (2007) found that retention of words rated for their relevance to survival is superior to that of words encoded under numerous other deep processing conditions. They suggested that our memory systems might have evolved to confer an advantage for survival-relevant information. Burns, Burns, and Hwang (2011) suggested a two-process explanation of the proximate mechanisms responsible for the survival advantage. Whereas most control tasks encourage only one type of processing, the survival task encourages both item-specific and relational processing. They found that when control tasks encouraged both types of processing, the survival processing advantage was eliminated. However, none of their control conditions included non-survival scenarios (e.g., moving, vacation, etc.), so it is not clear how this two-process explanation would explain the survival advantage when scenarios are used as control conditions. The present experiments replicated the finding that the survival scenario improves recall relative to a moving scenario in both a between-lists and within-list design and also provided evidence that this difference was accompanied by an item-specific processing difference, not a difference in relational processing. The implications of these results for several existing accounts of the survival processing effect are discussed.

  6. Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

    2017-08-01

    Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

  7. A scenario based project portfolio selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamran Pourahmadi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of the primary assumptions in many project portfolio selection is the availability of all parameters. However, in real-world cases, many parameters are under uncertainty and the exact values are unknown in advance. This paper presents a scenario based mathematical model for project portfolio selection when parameters are under uncertainty. The problem considers two objective functions where the first one maximizes the net present value while the second objective function is the minimization of the positive deviations from the allocation of resources. The second objective function is looking for project resource leveling. The resulted model is formulated as mixed integer programming and the problem is analyzed under different conditions.

  8. Stochastic Optimization for Nuclear Facility Deployment Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hays, Ross Daniel

    Single-use, low-enriched uranium oxide fuel, consumed through several cycles in a light-water reactor (LWR) before being disposed, has become the dominant source of commercial-scale nuclear electric generation in the United States and throughout the world. However, it is not without its drawbacks and is not the only potential nuclear fuel cycle available. Numerous alternative fuel cycles have been proposed at various times which, through the use of different reactor and recycling technologies, offer to counteract many of the perceived shortcomings with regards to waste management, resource utilization, and proliferation resistance. However, due to the varying maturity levels of these technologies, the complicated material flow feedback interactions their use would require, and the large capital investments in the current technology, one should not deploy these advanced designs without first investigating the potential costs and benefits of so doing. As the interactions among these systems can be complicated, and the ways in which they may be deployed are many, the application of automated numerical optimization to the simulation of the fuel cycle could potentially be of great benefit to researchers and interested policy planners. To investigate the potential of these methods, a computational program has been developed that applies a parallel, multi-objective simulated annealing algorithm to a computational optimization problem defined by a library of relevant objective functions applied to the Ver ifiable Fuel Cycle Simulati on Model (VISION, developed at the Idaho National Laboratory). The VISION model, when given a specified fuel cycle deployment scenario, computes the numbers and types of, and construction, operation, and utilization schedules for, the nuclear facilities required to meet a predetermined electric power demand function. Additionally, it calculates the location and composition of the nuclear fuels within the fuel cycle, from initial mining through

  9. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2011-01-01

    development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change...... the Dutch-based Research Institute for Knowledge Systems (RIKS), which has a lot of parallels with the MOLAND approach, known from various research applications. As we are new to land use modelling, this exercise should also illustrate the possibilities of non-modelling experts to elaborate a practical...

  10. Model-based scenarios of Mediterranean droughts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Weiß

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the change in current 100-year hydrological drought frequencies in the Mediterranean in comparison to the 2070s as simulated by the global model WaterGAP. The analysis considers socio-economic and climate changes as indicated by the IPCC scenarios A2 and B2 and the global general circulation model ECHAM4. Under these conditions today's 100-year drought is estimated to occur 10 times more frequently in the future over a large part of the Northern Mediterranean while in North Africa, today's 100-year drought will occur less frequently. Water abstractions are shown to play a minor role in comparison to the impact of climate change, but can intensify the situation.

  11. Conditional steering under the von Neumann scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, Kaushiki; Paul, Biswajit; Karmakar, Sumana; Sarkar, Debasis; Mukherjee, Amit; Bhattacharya, Some Sankar; Roy, Arup

    2017-08-01

    In Phys. Lett. A 166, 293 (1992), 10.1016/0375-9601(92)90711-T, Popescu and Rohrlich characterized nonlocality of pure n -partite entangled systems by studying bipartite violation of local realism when n -2 number of parties perform projective measurements on their particles. A pertinent question in this scenario is whether similar characterization is possible for n -partite mixed entangled states also. In the present work we have followed an analogous approach so as to explore whether given a tripartite mixed entangled state the conditional bipartite states obtained by performing projective measurement on the third party demonstrate a weaker form of nonlocality, quantum steering. We also compare this phenomenon of conditional steering with existing notions of tripartite correlations.

  12. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    Transport sector’s fuel mix which is dominated by the fossil fuel imposes multiple external costs like energy security, air quality and climate change. In this study, alternate future scenarios are designed to explore the transitions of national transport system (till 2050). Several policy options...... and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....

  13. Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Turok, N G; Turok, Neil; Seinhardt, Paul J.

    2005-01-01

    Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the Cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflat...

  14. Addressing an Uncertain Future Using Scenario Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Siddiqui, Afzal S.; Marnay, Chris

    2006-12-15

    The Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) has had a longstanding goal of introducing uncertainty into the analysis it routinely conducts in compliance with the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA) and for strategic management purposes. The need to introduce some treatment of uncertainty arises both because it would be good general management practice, and because intuitively many of the technologies under development by EERE have a considerable advantage in an uncertain world. For example, an expected kWh output from a wind generator in a future year, which is not exposed to volatile and unpredictable fuel prices, should be truly worth more than an equivalent kWh from an alternative fossil fuel fired technology. Indeed, analysts have attempted to measure this value by comparing the prices observed in fixed-price natural gas contracts compared to ones in which buyers are exposed to market prices (see Bolinger, Wiser, and Golove and (2004)). In addition to the routine reasons for exploring uncertainty given above, the history of energy markets appears to have exhibited infrequent, but troubling, regime shifts, i.e., historic turning points at which the center of gravity or fundamental nature of the system appears to have abruptly shifted. Figure 1 below shows an estimate of how the history of natural gas fired generating costs has evolved over the last three decades. The costs shown incorporate both the well-head gas price and an estimate of how improving generation technology has gradually tended to lower costs. The purpose of this paper is to explore scenario analysis as a method for introducing uncertainty into EERE's forecasting in a manner consistent with the preceding observation. The two questions are how could it be done, and what is its academic basis, if any. Despite the interest in uncertainty methods, applying them poses some major hurdles because of the heavy reliance of EERE on forecasting tools that are deterministic in

  15. Distributed Function Computation in Asymmetric Communication Scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Agnihotri, Samar

    2009-01-01

    We consider the distributed function computation problem in asymmetric communication scenarios, where the sink computes some deterministic function of the data split among N correlated informants. The distributed function computation problem is addressed as a generalization of distributed source coding (DSC) problem. We are mainly interested in minimizing the number of informant bits required, in the worst-case, to allow the sink to exactly compute the function. We provide a constructive solution for this in terms of an interactive communication protocol and prove its optimality. The proposed protocol also allows us to compute the worst-case achievable rate-region for the computation of any function. We define two classes of functions: lossy and lossless. We show that, in general, the lossy functions can be computed at the sink with fewer number of informant bits than the DSC problem, while computation of the lossless functions requires as many informant bits as the DSC problem.

  16. Cell Load Balancing in Heterogeneous Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eduardo, Simao; Rodrigues, Antonio; Mihovska, Albena D.

    2013-01-01

    Cell load imbalances in wireless networks degrade performance. Macro and small cell collocated deployments (heterogeneous scenario) constitutes a new problem for load balancing. This paper proposes a novel admission control algorithm for an optimal solution to the assignment of traffic flows....... It jointly performs congestion control and inter-cell interference avoidance by means of a utility describing the cell's channel. Centralized and uncoordinated schemes are studied. The first is defined as an integer linear program, while the second builds on the best channel utility developed for the first...... and combines it with a stochastic admission process. Based on simulation evaluation, it is shown that uncoordinated is near-optimal, while providing a viable solution for uncoordinated small cell deployments. Finally, the best utility developed proved better than the traditional power allocation....

  17. Land use scenarios for greater Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fertner, Christian; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

    2011-01-01

    Urban planning and development in Denmark can be characterised by a relatively strong planning framework. Projections of the future demand for urban development as well as decisions on how and where to accommodate this demand is part of the planning process and reflected in strategic- and local...... development plans. Land use scenarios based on empirically derived dynamics of urban growth are practically never applied. This may be explained by the in-consistency between the logic of spatial master planning - and the organic or driver-dependent character of urban growth assumed by land use modelling...... approaches. However, modelling approaches do offer a methodology to explore the pressures in an urban region, as well as an approach to understand urban development patterns outside the ‘spatial masterplan’. In this context we will present the results of a modelling exercise addressing future land use change...

  18. LCA Modeling of Waste Management Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Thomas Højlund; Simion, F.; Tonini, Davide

    2011-01-01

    Lifecycle assessment (LCA) modeling provides a quantitative statement about resource issues and environmental issues in waste management useful in evaluating alternative management systems and in mapping where major loads and savings take place within existing systems. Chapter 3.1 describes...... the concepts behind LCA modeling and Chapter 3.2 gives an overview of existing models and shows examples of their application. A recent comprehensive review of publicly available LCA studies (WRAP, 2006) concluded that, on a material basis, LCA modeling in general confirms the validity of the waste hierarchy...... and exchange with the energy systems, a comparison of results was hampered on a system level. In addition, differences in waste composition may affect the LCA results. This chapter provides results of LCA modeling of 40 waste management scenarios handling the same municipal waste (MSW) and using different...

  19. PLASMIX management: LCA of six possible scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cossu, R; Garbo, F; Girotto, F; Simion, F; Pivato, A

    2017-08-09

    Only a small percentage of the separately collected plastic is recycled. The mechanical selection process of source segregated plastic materials generates considerable amounts of residues that are commonly named as Plasmix. By means of a life cycle assessment (LCA) modelling, the environmental performances of the main Plasmix management options (thermal treatment, energy recovery, and landfilling) were compared. Six treatment scenarios, with different pre-treatment alternatives, were evaluated. Landfilling after waste washing and Plasmix substitution of coke in a blast furnace represent the most favorable options, since the performances of thermal treatment and energy recovery are worsened by specific emissions of a variety of toxic compounds and heavy metals within plastic materials as additives. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Male breast cancer: is the scenario changing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulkarni Dhananjay M

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The overall incidence of male breast cancer is around 1% of all breast cancers and is on the rise. In this review we aim to present various aspects of male breast cancer with particular emphasis on incidence, risk factors, patho-physiology, treatment, prognostic factors, and outcome. Methods Information on all aspects of male breast cancer was gathered from available relevant literature on male breast cancer from the MEDLINE database over the past 32 years from 1975 to 2007. Various reported studies were scrutinized for emerging evidence. Incidence data were also obtained from the IARC, Cancer Mondial database. Conclusion There is a scenario of rising incidence, particularly in urban US, Canada and UK. Even though more data on risk factors is emerging about this disease, more multi-institutional efforts to pool data with large randomized trials to show treatment and survival benefits are needed to support the existing vast emerging knowledge about the disease.

  1. Judgments of culpability in a filicide scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christopher J; Miller-Stratton, Heather; Heinrich, Emily; Fritz, Stacey; Smith, Shawn

    2008-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that potential jurors are likely to use personal biases, such as those based on gender and ethnicity, in their judgments of culpability of criminal defendants in addition to, or instead of, the facts of the crime. The present paper seeks to extend this literature to the crime of filicide; to examine whether male defendants are judged more harshly than female defendants, as is the case for domestic violence and sexual abuse. 214 participants were provided with a scenario of filicide in which the gender of the perpetrator, the gender of the child, and the family's social class were randomly assigned. Participants were asked to rate the culpability of the defendant in the case. Results indicated that, unlike for other violent crimes, participants did not use gender or social class biases in their judgments of criminal culpability.

  2. Inhomogeneous reheating scenario with DBI fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sheng

    2010-08-01

    We discuss a new mechanism which can be responsible for the origin of the primordial perturbation in inflationary models, the inhomogeneous DBI reheating scenario. Light DBI fields fluctuate during inflation, and finally create the density perturbations through modulation of the inflation decay rate. In this note, we investigate the curvature perturbation and its non-Gaussianity from this new mechanism. Presenting generalized expressions for them, we show that the curvature perturbation not only depends on the particular process of decay but is also dependent on the sound speed cs from the DBI action. More interestingly we find that the non-Gaussianity parameter fNL is independent of cs. As an application we exemplify some decay processes which give a viable and detectable non-Gaussianity. Finally we find a possible connection between our model and the DBI-Curvaton mechanism.

  3. The asymptotic safety scenario in quantum gravity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saueressig, Frank [Institute of Physics, University of Mainz, D-55099 Mainz (Germany)

    2011-07-01

    Asymptotic safety offers the possibility that gravity constitutes a consistent and predictive quantum field theory within Wilsons generalized framework of renormalization. The key ingredient of this scenario is a non-trivial fixed point of the gravitational renormalization group flow which governs the UV behavior of the theory. The fixed point itself thereby guarantees the absence of unphysical UV divergences while its associated finite-dimensional UV-critical surface ensures the predictivity of the resulting quantum theory. This talk summarizes the evidence for the existence of such a fixed point, which emerged from the flow equation for the effective average action, the gravitational beta-functions in 2+{epsilon} dimensions, the 2-Killing vector reduction of the gravitational path-integral and lattice simulations. Possible phenomenological consequences are discussed in detail.

  4. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network"

    CERN Document Server

    Carvalho, Alexsandro M

    2012-01-01

    The structure of sexual contacts, its contacts network and its temporal interactions, play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, that kind of data is very hard to obtain. One of the few exceptions is the "Romantic network" which is a complete structure of a real sexual network of a high school. In terms of topology, unlike other sexual networks classified as scale-free network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have effects on diffusion through networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes.With the aim to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI in it, we perform simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve in time. In the static case, we compare the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. We further...

  5. Inflationary dynamics in the braneworld scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zhang Kai-Yuan; Wu Pu-Xun; Yu Hong-Wei

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the attractor behaviour of the inflation field in braneworld scenarios using the Hamilton-Jacobi formalism,where the Friedmann equation has the form of H2 =ρ + ε√2ρ0ρ or H2 =ρ + ερ2/2σ,with ε =+ 1.We find that in all models the linear homogeneous perturbation can decay exponentially as the scalar field rolls down its potential.However,in the case of a-ρ2 correction to the standard cosmology with ρ < σ,the existence of an attractor solution requires (σ-ρ)/φ2 > 1.Our results show that the perturbation decays more quickly in models with positive-energy correction than in the standard cosmology,which is opposite to the case of negative-energy correction.Thus,the positive-energy modification rather than the negative one can assist the inflation and widen the range of initial conditions.

  6. Future Scenarios for Mobile Science Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Kevin; Kearney, Matthew

    2016-04-01

    This paper adopts scenario planning as a methodological approach and tool to help science educators reconceptualise their use of mobile technologies across various different futures. These `futures' are set out neither as predictions nor prognoses but rather as stimuli to encourage greater discussion and reflection around the use of mobile technologies in science education. Informed by the literature and our empirical data, we consider four alternative futures for science education in a mobile world, with a particular focus on networked collaboration and student agency. We conclude that `seamless learning', whereby students are empowered to use their mobile technologies to negotiate across physical and virtual boundaries (e.g. between school and out-of-school activities), may be the most significant factor in encouraging educators to rethink their existing pedagogical patterns, thereby realizing some of the promises of contextualised participatory science learning.

  7. Inhomogeneous Reheating Scenario with DBI fields

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Sheng

    2010-01-01

    We discuss a new mechanism which can be responsible for the origin of the primordial perturbation in inflationary models, the inhomogeneous DBI reheating scenario. Light DBI fields fluctuate during inflation, and finally create the density perturbations through modulation of the inflation decay rate. In this note, we investigate the curvature perturbation and its non-Gaussianity from this new mechanism. Presenting generalized expressions for them, we show that the curvature perturbation not only depends on the particular process of decay but is also dependent on the sound speed $c_s$ from the DBI action. More interestingly we find that the non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{NL}$ is independent of $c_s$. As an application we exemplify some decay processes which give a viable and detectable non-Gaussianity. Finally we find a possible connection between our model and the DBI-Curvaton mechanism.

  8. Overview of the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, Steve [Lexidyne, LLC, Colorado Springs, CO (United States)

    2015-09-01

    This report describes the structure of the October 2012 version of the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) in considerable detail, oriented towards readers with a background or interest in the underlying modeling structures. Readers seeking a less-detailed summary of the BSM may refer to Peterson (2013). BSM aims to provide a framework for exploring the potential contribution of biofuel technologies to the transportation energy supply for the United States over the next several decades. The model has evolved significantly from the prototype developed as part of the Role of Biomass in America" tm s Energy Future (RBAEF) project. BSM represents the supply chain surrounding conversion pathways for multiple fuel products, including ethanol, butanol, and infrastructure-compatible biofuels such as diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.

  9. Present and Future Energy Scenario in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S.; Bhattacharyya, B.; Gupta, V. K.

    2014-09-01

    India's energy sector is one of the most critical components of an infrastructure that affects India's economic growth and therefore is also one of the largest industries in India. India has the 5th largest electricity generating capacity and is the 6th largest energy consumer amounting for around 3.4 % of global energy consumption. India's energy demand has grown at 3.6 % pa over the past 30 years. The consumption of the energy is directly proportional to the progress of manpower with ever growing population, improvement in the living standard of the humanity and industrialization of the developing countries. Very recently smart grid technology can attribute important role in energy scenario. Smart grid refers to electric power system that enhances grid reliability and efficiency by automatically responding to system disturbances. This paper discusses the new communication infrastructure and scheme designed to integrate data.

  10. Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Romem

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March. We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive.

    HMSO (1962 has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58% enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar, and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%, the Atlantic Ocean (4%, and Western Europe (3%.

    The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%, North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5% and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%. The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing.

    The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962 is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.

  11. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  12. Emergent universe in the braneworld scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heydarzade, Y.; Hadi, H. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Darabi, F. [Azarbaijan Shahid Madani University, Department of Physics, Tabriz (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Research Institute for Astronomy and Astrophysics of Maragha (RIAAM), Maragha (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheykhi, A. [College of Sciences, Shiraz University, Physics Department and Biruni Observatory, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2016-06-15

    According to Padmanabhan's proposal, the difference between the surface degrees of freedom and the bulk degrees of freedom in a region of space may result in the acceleration of Universe expansion through the relation ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} where N{sub bulk} and N{sub sur} are referred to the degrees of freedom related to the matter and energy content inside the bulk and surface area, respectively (Padmanabhan, arXiv:1206.4916v1, 2012). In this paper,we study the dynamical effect of the extrinsic geometrical embedding of an arbitrary four-dimensional brane in a higher-dimensional bulk space and investigate the corresponding degrees of freedom. Considering the modification of the Friedmann equations arising from a general braneworld scenario, we obtain a correction term in Padmanabhan's relation, denoting the number of degrees of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane embedded in higher-dimensional spacetime as ΔV/Δt = N{sub sur} - N{sub bulk} - N{sub extr} where N{sub extr} is for the degree of freedom related to the extrinsic geometry of the brane, while N{sub sur} and N{sub bulk} are defined as before. Finally, we study the validity of the first and second laws of thermodynamics for this general braneworld scenario in the state of thermal equilibrium and in the presence of confined matter fields to the brane with the induced geometric matter fields. (orig.)

  13. Future electric scenarios for urban logistics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2012-07-01

    This report is produced by the SAFE Urban Logistics project - a Norden Energy and Transport project that aims to study and analyse the prospect of integrating electric vehicles in the goods distribution of urban areas. The goal of the project is to create next practice solutions, offer promising opportunities for urban logistics operations, in order to become both more efficient and more environmentally sustainable. The SAFE Urban Logistics aims to match business models for making the application of electric vehicles within inner city logistics happen. The project will also create proposals for sustainable suitable technical solutions associated with these business models. This is one out of four reports produced by the project. Read more about the project and get access to all the reports on www.safeproject.eu. This report is the final output of the project and describes four scenarios for the future of urban logistics based on the urbanization and potential political interventions. The described scenarios will be evaluated on environmental effects and describe a potential idea that can bring this future one step closer. An array of potential business and logistics models as well as technical solutions that could be applied in order to integrate EV's on a larger basis are added at the end of the document. It is supposed to act as inspiration for the strategic development of logistics companies as well as local and governmental policies. Knowledge and experiences in this report are mainly taken from Denmark, Norway and Sweden. When it comes to logistic recommendations and experiences, influence from other parts of Europe have also been included. (Author)

  14. Software Architecture Reliability Analysis using Failure Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekinerdogan, B.; Sözer, Hasan; Aksit, Mehmet

    With the increasing size and complexity of software in embedded systems, software has now become a primary threat for the reliability. Several mature conventional reliability engineering techniques exist in literature but traditionally these have primarily addressed failures in hardware components

  15. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e., through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also presented. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  16. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Caille

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain, as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993–2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC. After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  17. Participatory scenario development for integrated assessment of nutrient flows in a Catalan river catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caille, F.; Riera, J. L.; Rodríguez-Labajos, B.; Middelkoop, H.; Rosell-Melé, A.

    2007-11-01

    Rivers in developed regions are under significant stress due to nutrient enrichment generated mainly by human activities. Excess nitrogen and phosphorus emissions are the product of complex dynamic systems influenced by various factors such as demographic, socio-economic and technological development. Using a Catalan river catchment, La Tordera (North-East of Spain), as a case study of an integrated and interdisciplinary environmental assessment of nutrient flows, we present and discuss the development of narrative socio-economic scenarios through a participatory process for the sustainable management of the anthropogenic sources of nutrients, nitrogen and phosphorus. In this context, scenarios are an appropriate tool to assist nutrient emissions modelling, and to assess impacts, possible pathways for socio-economic development and associated uncertainties. Evaluated against the 1993-2003 baseline period, scenarios target the 2030 horizon, i.e. through the implementation process of the Water Framework Directive (Directive 2000/60/EC). After a critical examination of the methodology used in the participatory development of socio-economic scenarios, we present four possible futures (or perspectives) for the Catalan river catchment conceived by stakeholders invited to a workshop. Keys to the success of such a participatory process were trust, which enhanced openness, and disagreements, which fostered the group's creativity for scenario development. The translation of narrative socio-economic scenarios into meaningful nutrient emission scenarios is also discussed. By integrating findings of natural sciences and socio-economic analysis, we aim to assist decision makers and stakeholders in evaluating optimal management strategies for the anthropogenic sources of nitrogen and phosphorus.

  18. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...... in producing the scenario-related knowledge are examined. Furthermore, the author discusses what purposes scenario planning can be used for as well as an evaluative approach to strengths and weaknesses along with the requirements to be made to the scenario planning process and the informational basis...

  19. Short views and hints on information, knowledge and scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristiansson, Michael

    2011-01-01

    This article discusses information and knowledge in relation to scenario planning (van der Heijden) and considers the type of information that is relied on/included as well as the nature of knowledge produced by the scenario planning sequence. In addition, the chief tools and processes drawn upon...... in producing the scenario-related knowledge are examined. Furthermore, the author discusses what purposes scenario planning can be used for as well as an evaluative approach to strengths and weaknesses along with the requirements to be made to the scenario planning process and the informational basis...

  20. Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Denti, Enrico

    2014-01-01

    Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the

  1. Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tachiiri, Kaoru; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Annan, James D.; Kawamiya, Michio [Research Inst. for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, (Japan)], e-mail: tachiiri@jamstec.go.jp; Huntingford, Chris [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)

    2013-11-15

    Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO{sub 2} concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the twenty first century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO{sub 2} is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a

  2. Scenario planning for community development in Vietnam: a new tool for integrated health approaches?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Vi; Nguyen-Viet, Hung; Pham-Duc, Phuc; Wiese, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Like many countries in Southeast Asia, Vietnam's rapid population and economic growth has met challenges in infrastructure development, especially sanitation in rural areas. As an entry point, we developed scenario planning as an action-research tool in a peri-urban community to identify first steps towards improving their complex sanitation problem and to, systemically, address emerging/re-emerging infectious diseases, as these are commonly linked to unsafe water and inadequate sanitation conditions. As an integrated approach, the process of constructing scenarios allowed us to work across sectors and stakeholders to incorporate this knowledge into a common vision. We conducted focus group discussions to identify and rank driving forces, orally constructed scenarios for the most uncertain drivers, discussed scenario implications and options, and examined the overall process for usefulness and sustainability. During a one-month scoping phase and in between focus group meetings, we carried out household visits which helped us understand the context of data and gather feedback from participants outside of the formal data collection process. Recorded results from these activities were used to develop subsequent tools. The research process gave us insights into how to adapt the scenario planning tool to identify alternative options. This involved choosing boundary partners, negotiating priorities, drawing out participant learning through self-assessment of our process (a prerequisite for changing mental models and thus achieving outcomes), and understanding how conveyed messages may reinforce the status quo. These insights showed the importance of examining research results beyond outputs and outcomes, namely through process.

  3. New Approaches for the Use of the Classical Tools of Scenario Planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ricardo Balieiro Fischer

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The future is to be built – is multiple and uncertain. Within the social sciences, scenarios can be defined as a description of a future situation and a course of events that allow move from a primary position toward this future situation. Currently, there is a multiplicity of methods and tools available for building scenarios, including methods of an essentially rationalist approach, as Michel Godet’s method. The purpose of this work is to use the hypothetical-deductive method to reduce, starting from Michel Godet’s Scenario Method and its tools, the complexity of the scenario-building process while maintaining the robustness of the findings. For this purpose, it is proposed two different approaches: (1 to integrate, in one step, the structural analysis and the cross-impact matrix so the first one derives automatically while filling the last one; (2 to use the concept of Bayesian networks as a method to integrate the cross-impact matrix and the morphological analysis. Both approaches aim to reduce the amount of information needed to feed the tools and improve the feedback criteria, resulting in greater flexibility during the process and better holistic view of the system. Scientifically, these approaches open a new field of studies in scenario planning as it appropriates the concept of Bayesian networks, widely used in other areas of knowledge (artificial intelligence, geological studies, medical diagnostics, pattern classification, etc., and bring it to the field of social sciences.

  4. Quantification of Scenario Distance within Generic WINNER Channel Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Narandžić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Starting from the premise that stochastic properties of a radio environment can be abstracted by defining scenarios, a generic MIMO channel model is built by the WINNER project. The parameter space of the WINNER model is, among others, described by normal probability distributions and correlation coefficients that provide a suitable space for scenario comparison. The possibility to quantify the distance between reference scenarios and measurements enables objective comparison and classification of measurements into scenario classes. In this paper we approximate the WINNER scenarios with multivariate normal distributions and then use the mean Kullback-Leibler divergence to quantify their divergence. The results show that the WINNER scenario groups (A, B, C, and D or propagation classes (LoS, OLoS, and NLoS do not necessarily ensure minimum separation within the groups/classes. Instead, the following grouping minimizes intragroup distances: (i indoor-to-outdoor and outdoor-to-indoor scenarios (A2, B4, and C4, (ii macrocell configurations for suburban, urban, and rural scenarios (C1, C2, and D1, and (iii indoor/hotspot/microcellular scenarios (A1, B3, and B1. The computation of the divergence between Ilmenau and Dresden measurements and WINNER scenarios confirms that the parameters of the C2 scenario are a proper reference for a large variety of urban macrocell environments.

  5. Accounting for the Impact of Management Scenarios on Typha Domingensis (Cattail) in an Everglades Wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagerwall, Gareth; Kiker, Gregory; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Wang, Naiming

    2017-01-01

    The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future.

  6. Accounting for the Impact of Management Scenarios on Typha Domingensis (Cattail) in an Everglades Wetland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagerwall, Gareth; Kiker, Gregory; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Wang, Naiming

    2017-01-01

    The coupled regional simulation model, and the transport and reaction simulation engine were recently adapted to simulate ecology, specifically Typha domingensis (Cattail) dynamics in the Everglades. While Cattail is a native Everglades species, it has become invasive over the years due to an altered habitat over the last few decades, taking over historically Cladium jamaicense (Sawgrass) areas. Two models of different levels of algorithmic complexity were developed in previous studies, and are used here to determine the impact of various management decisions on the average Cattail density within Water Conservation Area 2A in the Everglades. A Global Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis was conducted to test the importance of these management scenarios, as well as the effectiveness of using zonal statistics. Management scenarios included high, medium and low initial water depths, soil phosphorus concentrations, initial Cattail and Sawgrass densities, as well as annually alternating water depths and soil phosphorus concentrations, and a steadily decreasing soil phosphorus concentration. Analysis suggests that zonal statistics are good indicators of regional trends, and that high soil phosphorus concentration is a pre-requisite for expansive Cattail growth. It is a complex task to manage Cattail expansion in this region, requiring the close management and monitoring of water depth and soil phosphorus concentration, and possibly other factors not considered in the model complexities. However, this modeling framework with user-definable complexities and management scenarios, can be considered a useful tool in analyzing many more alternatives, which could be used to aid management decisions in the future.

  7. Deriving future oriented research and competence requirements based on scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonne, Anne-Mette; Harmsen, Hanne; Jensen, Birger Boutrup

    The key to a company's survival lies in its ability to adapt itself to an ever changing world. A company's knowledge and competencies must be fitted to the requirements of the environment in which it operates. However, the kind of competencies that ensures a company's survival are not acquired...... prepare for different possible futures do scenario methods offer real value. A way to try to be better prepared for the future is to deduct competence and research needs given different possible future development described in a number of scenarios. Hence, the aim of this paper is to test the use...... of scenarios for this purpose. Most scenario studies report mostly on the scenario construction, were as we want to focus on the suitability of scenario methods as a mean of deducting competence requirements and research needs. Also scenario techniques have mostly been used on either a company level or a macro...

  8. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    The surface of Mars once had abundant water flowing on its surface, but now there is a general perception that this surface is completely dry. Several lines of research have shown that there are sources of potentially large quantities of water at many locations on the surface, including regions considered as candidates for future human missions. Traditionally, system designs for these human missions are constrained to tightly recycle water and oxygen, and current resource utilization strategies involve ascent vehicle oxidizer production only. But the assumption of relatively abundant extant water may change this. Several scenarios were constructed to evaluate water requirements for human Mars expeditions to assess the impact to system design if locally produced water is available. Specifically, we have assessed water resources needed for 1) ascent vehicle oxidizer and fuel production, 2) open-loop water and oxygen life support requirements along with more robust usage scenarios, and 3) crew radiation protection augmentation. In this assessment, production techniques and the associated chemistry to transform Martian water and atmosphere into these useful commodities are identified, but production mass and power requirements are left to future analyses. The figure below illustrates the type of water need assessment performed and that will be discussed. There have been several sources of feedstock material discussed in recent literature that could be used to produce these quantities of water. This paper will focus on Mars surface features that resemble glacier-like forms on Earth. Several lines of evidence indicate that some of these features are in fact buried ice, likely remnants from an earlier ice age on Mars. This paper examines techniques and hardware systems used in the polar regions of Earth to access this buried ice and withdraw water from it. These techniques and systems will be described to illustrate options available. A technique known as a Rodriguez Well

  9. A Water Rich Mars Surface Mission Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, Stephen J.; Andrews, Alida; Joosten, B. Kent; Watts, Kevin

    2017-01-01

    In an on-going effort to make human Mars missions more affordable and sustainable, NASA continues to investigate the innovative leveraging of technological advances in conjunction with the use of accessible Martian resources directly applicable to these missions. One of the resources with the broadest utility for human missions is water. Many past studies of human Mars missions assumed a complete lack of water derivable from local sources. However, recent advances in our understanding of the Martian environment provides growing evidence that Mars may be more "water rich" than previously suspected. This is based on data indicating that substantial quantities of water are mixed with surface regolith, bound in minerals located at or near the surface, and buried in large glacier-like forms. This paper describes an assessment of what could be done in a "water rich" human Mars mission scenario. A description of what is meant by "water rich" in this context is provided, including a quantification of the water that would be used by crews in this scenario. The different types of potential feedstock that could be used to generate these quantities of water are described, drawing on the most recently available assessments of data being returned from Mars. This paper specifically focuses on sources that appear to be buried quantities of water ice. (An assessment of other potential feedstock materials is documented in another paper.) Technologies and processes currently used in terrestrial Polar Regions are reviewed. One process with a long history of use on Earth and with potential application on Mars - the Rodriguez Well - is described and results of an analysis simulating the performance of such a well on Mars are presented. These results indicate that a Rodriguez Well capable of producing the quantities of water identified for a "water rich" human mission are within the capabilities assumed to be available on the Martian surface, as envisioned in other comparable Evolvable

  10. Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

    Science.gov (United States)

    David, S.

    2005-04-01

    The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

  11. Interactive Language Learning through Speech-Enabled Virtual Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hazel Morton

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the evaluation of an educational game designed to give learners of foreign languages the opportunity to practice their spoken language skills. Within the speech interactive Computer-Assisted Language Learning (CALL program, scenarios are presented in which learners interact with virtual characters in the target language using speech recognition technology. Two types of interactive scenarios with virtual characters are presented as part of the game: the one-to-one scenarios which take the form of practice question and answer scenarios where the learner interacts with one virtual character and the interactive scenario which is an immersive contextualised scenario where the learner interacts with two or more virtual characters within the scene to complete a (task-based communicative goal. The study presented here compares learners’ subjective attitudes towards the different scenarios. In addition, the study investigates the performance of the speech recognition component in this game. Forty-eight students of English as a Foreign Language (EFL took part in the evaluation. Results indicate that learners’ subjective ratings for the contextualised interactive scenario are higher than for the one-to-one, practice scenarios. In addition, recognition performance was better for these interactive scenarios.

  12. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  13. Hepatotoxicity and the present herbal hepatoprotective scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyankar Dey

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the metabolic and physiological processes of our body as well as the detoxification of various drugs and xenobiotic chemicals occur in the liver. During this detoxification process, the reactive chemical intermediates damage the liver severely. There are several commercially available drugs, consumption of which results in idiosyncratic drug reaction mediated hepatotoxicity. Drug induced hepatotoxicity is a burning problem in this regard and several drugs are withdrawn from the market due to their hepatotoxic nature. Today, worldwide search of non-hepatotoxic drugs, especially potent hepatoprotective drugs have led towards the screening of numerous herbal products. Pharmaceutical companies and scientific communities have started to consider the therapeutic efficiency of the plant-based hepatoprotective remedies. Different herbs are mentioned in various ethnopharmacological practices possessing hepatoprotective capacities and around the globe, such herbs are still used by people to cure certain liver diseases. Therefore, we have documented the various aspects of hepatotoxicity and an overview on the current scenario of the hepatoprotective herbal remedies.

  14. A Hadronic Scenario for the Galactic Ridge

    CERN Document Server

    Gaggero, Daniele; Marinelli, Antonio; Urbano, Alfredo; Valli, Mauro

    2015-01-01

    Several observations from Fermi-LAT, up to few hundred GeV, and from H.E.S.S., up to $\\sim$ 10 TeV, reported an intense $\\gamma$-ray emission from the inner part of the Galactic plane. After the subtraction of point-like contributions, the remaining $\\gamma$-ray spectrum can provide important hints about the cosmic-ray (CR) population in that region. In particular, the diffuse spectrum measured by both Fermi-LAT and H.E.S.S. in the Galactic Ridge is significantly harder with respect to the rest of the Galaxy. These results were recently interpreted in terms of a comprehensive CR transport model which, adopting a spatial dependent diffusion coefficient and convective velocity, reproduces Fermi-LAT results on the whole sky as well as local CR spectra. We showed as that model predicts a significantly harder neutrino diffuse emission compared to conventional scenarios: The predicted signal is able to account for a significant fraction of the astrophysical flux measured by IceCube. In this contribution, we use the...

  15. Nuclear energy education scenario around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barabas, Roberta de Carvalho; Sabundjian, Gaiane, E-mail: praroberta@uol.com.br, E-mail: gdjian@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)

    2013-07-01

    Nuclear energy has been used as a source of clean energy with many benefits. Nevertheless, it is still addressed with prejudice. The atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during World War II (1945), the Three Mile Island accident (1979), Chernobyl accident (1986), the crash of the cesium-137 in Goiana, Brazil (1987), and the recent accident in Fukushima (2011) may have been responsible for the negative image of nuclear energy. Researches on education have been conducted with students concerning the conceptual and practical issues of nuclear energy. This work aims to review the literature about nuclear energy education around the world in both, elementary school and high school. Since most educational researches on nuclear energy were published after 1980, this literature review covered the researches that have been published since 1980. The data were presented in chronological order. The results from the literature review provided a clear visualization of the global nuclear energy educational scenario, showing that the theme is still addressed with prejudice due to an incorrect view of nuclear energy and a limited view of its benefits. Concerning the science textbooks, the literature reports that the theme should be better addressed, encouraging students to research more about it. The data from this literature review will serve as a reference for a future proposal for a teaching training program for Brazilian science/physics high school teachers using a new teaching approach. (author)

  16. General Relativistic Simulations of the Collapsar Scenario

    CERN Document Server

    DeBrye, N; Aloy, M A; Font, J A

    2013-01-01

    We are exploring the viability of the collapsar model for long-soft gamma-ray bursts. For this we perform state-of-the-art general relativistic hydrodynamic simulations in a dynamically evolving space-time with the CoCoNuT code. We start from massive low metallicity stellar models evolved up to core gravitational instability, and then follow the subsequent evolution until the system collapses forming a compact remnant. A preliminary study of the collapse outcome is performed by varying the typical parameters of the scenario, such as the initial stellar mass, metallicity, and rotational profile of the stellar progenitor. 1D models (without rotation) have been used to test our newly developed neutrino leakage scheme. This is a fundamental piece of our approach as it allows the central remnant (in all cases considered, a metastable high-mass neutron star) to cool down, eventually collapsing to a black hole. In two dimensions, we show that sufficiently fast rotating cores lead to the formation of Kerr black holes...

  17. [Environmental management: critical analysis, scenarios and challenges].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Marcelo Firpo de Souza; Schütz, Gabriel Eduardo

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the limits, alternatives and challenges of environmental management in contemporary globalized capitalist societies. It is based on a critical analysis supported by authors from social sciences, political ecology and public health. To this end, we systematize the meaning of hegemonic environmental management in terms of eco-efficiency and its limits to tackle environmental risks and construct democratic processes and societies. We developed four ideal scenarios involving possible combinations of environmental management and democracy. This model served as a base, together with academic studies and the theoretical and militant experience of the authors, for a reflection on the current characteristics and future trends of environmental management and democracy, with emphasis on the reality of Latin America, specifically Brazil. Lastly, we discuss possibilities for social transformation taking into consideration the contradictions and emancipatory alternatives resulting from confrontations between hegemonic tendencies of the market and counter-hegemonic utopias and social movements. The latter assume principles of environmental justice, economic solidarity, agro-ecology and sustainability as well as the construction of new epistemologies.

  18. Dynamical scenarios for chromosome bi-orientation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tongli; Oliveira, Raquel A; Schmierer, Bernhard; Novák, Béla

    2013-06-18

    Chromosome bi-orientation at the metaphase spindle is essential for precise segregation of the genetic material. The process is error-prone, and error-correction mechanisms exist to switch misaligned chromosomes to the correct, bi-oriented configuration. Here, we analyze several possible dynamical scenarios to explore how cells might achieve correct bi-orientation in an efficient and robust manner. We first illustrate that tension-mediated feedback between the sister kinetochores can give rise to a bistable switch, which allows robust distinction between a loose attachment with low tension and a strong attachment with high tension. However, this mechanism has difficulties in explaining how bi-orientation is initiated starting from unattached kinetochores. We propose four possible mechanisms to overcome this problem (exploiting molecular noise; allowing an efficient attachment of kinetochores already in the absence of tension; a trial-and-error oscillation; and a stochastic bistable switch), and assess their impact on the bi-orientation process. Based on our results and supported by experimental data, we put forward a trial-and-error oscillation and a stochastic bistable switch as two elegant mechanisms with the potential to promote bi-orientation both efficiently and robustly.

  19. Future Scenario of Renewable Energy in India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandeep Kumar

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a review about future scenario of renewable energy in India.Energy is a vital input for economic and social development of any country. With increasing industrialand agricultural activities in the country, the demand for energy is also rising. Solar, wind and biomassare accepted as dependable and widely available renewable sources of energy. To meet the energy requirement for such a fast growingeconomy, India will require an assured supply of 3–5 times more energy than the total energy consumedtoday. The renewable energy is one of the options to meet this requirement Energy is the prime mover of economic growth and is vital to the sustenance of a modern economy. Future economic growth crucially depends on the long-term availability of energy from sources that are affordable, accessible and environmentally friendly. India has obtained application of a variety of renewable energy technologies for use in different sectors too. This paper presents current status, major achievements and future aspects of renewable energy in India. In this paper evaluation of current energy policies for conquering the obstructions and implementing renewables for the future is also been presented.

  20. Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Giacomelli

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.

  1. Z-peaked excess in goldstini scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Liew, Seng Pei; Mawatari, Kentarou; Sakurai, Kazuki; Vereecken, Matthias

    2015-01-01

    We study a possible explanation of a 3.0 $\\sigma$ excess recently reported by the ATLAS Collaboration in events with Z-peaked same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair, jets and large missing transverse momentum in the context of gauge-mediated SUSY breaking with more than one hidden sector, the so-called goldstini scenario. In a certain parameter space, the gluino two-body decay chain $\\tilde g\\to g\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}\\to gZ\\tilde G'$ becomes dominant, where $\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}$ and $\\tilde G'$ are the Higgsino-like neutralino and the massive pseudo-goldstino, respectively, and gluino pair production can contribute to the signal. We find that a mass spectrum such as $m_{\\tilde g}\\sim 900$ GeV, $m_{\\tilde\\chi^0_{1,2}}\\sim 700$ GeV and $m_{\\tilde G'}\\sim 600$ GeV demonstrates the rate and the distributions of the excess, without conflicting with the stringent constraints from jets plus missing energy analyses and with the CMS constraint on the identical final state.

  2. Z-peaked excess in goldstini scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seng Pei Liew

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available We study a possible explanation of a 3.0 σ excess recently reported by the ATLAS Collaboration in events with Z-peaked same-flavour opposite-sign lepton pair, jets and large missing transverse momentum in the context of gauge-mediated SUSY breaking with more than one hidden sector, the so-called goldstini scenario. In a certain parameter space, the gluino two-body decay chain g˜→gχ˜1,20→gZG˜′ becomes dominant, where χ˜1,20 and G˜′ are the Higgsino-like neutralino and the massive pseudo-goldstino, respectively, and gluino pair production can contribute to the signal. We find that a mass spectrum such as mg˜∼1000 GeV, mχ˜1,20∼800 GeV and mG˜′∼600 GeV demonstrates the rate and the distributions of the excess, without conflicting with the stringent constraints from jets plus missing energy analyses and with the CMS constraint on the identical final state.

  3. Screening closing scenarios for tactical targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefcik, Jason A.; Lee, Harry C.; Olson, Teresa L. P.

    2002-07-01

    The first step in an automatic image target acquisition system is determining the location of candidate objects. Screening for targets must also be done within a tactical scenario timeframe. The screening process must only require a portion of the processing workload since other algorithms must execute in the same time frame. The detection of these candidate objects is allocated to two functions within the same algorithm. The first is a pre-screener and other is a clutter rejection component that will categorize the object nomination into target or non-target classes. This paper describes a screener that meets the necessary requirements for tactical operations. It uses the magnitude and direction of the image gradient. Locations are nominated by looking at local neighborhoods in this gradient space. Regions of interest are then selected and various features are extracted. These features are selected both for their information content and their ease of calculation. Using a Bayes approach, target candidates are selected as plausible targets of interest.

  4. Quest for potentials in the quintessence scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Hara, Tetsuya

    2016-01-01

    The time variation of the equation of state $w$ for quintessence scenario with a scalar field as dark energy is studied up to the third derivative ($d^3w/da^3$) with respect to the scale factor $a$, in order to predict the future observations and specify the scalar potential parameters with the observables. The third derivative of $w$ for general potential $V$ is derived and applied to several types of potentials. They are the inverse power-law ($V=M^{4+\\alpha}/Q^{\\alpha}$), the exponential ($V=M^4\\exp{(\\beta M/Q)}$), the cosine ($V=M^4(\\cos (Q/f)+1)$) and the Gaussian types ($V=M^4\\exp(-Q^2/\\sigma^2)$), which are prototypical potentials for the freezing and thawing models. If the parameter number for a potential form is $ n$, it is necessary to find at least for $n+2$ independent observations to identify the potential form and the evolution of the scalar field ($Q$ and $ \\dot{Q} $). Such observations would be the values of $ \\Omega_Q, w, dw/da. \\cdots $, and $ dw^n/da^n$. Since four of the above mentioned po...

  5. What is a Natural SUSY scenario?

    CERN Document Server

    Casas, J Alberto; Robles, Sandra; Rolbiecki, Krzysztof; Zaldivar, Bryan

    2014-01-01

    The idea of "Natural SUSY", understood as a supersymmetric scenario where the fine-tuning is as mild as possible, is a reasonable guide to explore supersymmetric phenomenology. In this paper, we re-examine this issue including several improvements, such as the mixing of the fine-tuning conditions for different soft terms and the presence of potential extra fine-tunings that must be combined with the electroweak one. We give tables and plots that allow to easily evaluate the fine-tuning and the corresponding naturalness bounds for any theoretical model defined at any high-energy (HE) scale. Then, we analyze in detail the complete fine-tuning bounds for the unconstrained MSSM, defined at any HE scale. We show that Natural SUSY does {\\em not} demand light stops. Actually, an average stop mass below 800~GeV is disfavored, though one of the stops might be very light. Regarding phenomenology, the most stringent upper bound from naturalness is the one on the gluino mass, which typically sets the present level fine-t...

  6. Microalgae biorefineries: The Brazilian scenario in perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brasil, B S A F; Silva, F C P; Siqueira, F G

    2016-06-22

    Biorefineries have the potential to meet a significant part of the growing demand for energy, fuels, chemicals and materials worldwide. Indeed, the bio-based industry is expected to play a major role in energy security and climate change mitigation during the 21th century. Despite this, there are challenges related to resource consumption, processing optimization and waste minimization that still need to be overcome. In this context, microalgae appear as a promising non-edible feedstock with advantages over traditional land crops, such as high productivity, continuous harvesting throughout the year and minimal problems regarding land use. Importantly, both cultivation and microalgae processing can take place at the same site, which increases the possibilities for process integration and a reduction in logistic costs at biorefinery facilities. This review describes the actual scenario for microalgae biorefineries integration to the biofuels and petrochemical industries in Brazil, while highlighting the major challenges and recent advances in microalgae large-scale production. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Knowledge sharing in the health scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lluch-Ariet, Magí; Brugués de la Torre, Albert; Vallverdú, Francesc; Pegueroles-Vallés, Josep

    2014-11-28

    The understanding of certain data often requires the collection of similar data from different places to be analysed and interpreted. Interoperability standards and ontologies, are facilitating data interchange around the world. However, beyond the existing networks and advances for data transfer, data sharing protocols to support multilateral agreements are useful to exploit the knowledge of distributed Data Warehouses. The access to a certain data set in a federated Data Warehouse may be constrained by the requirement to deliver another specific data set. When bilateral agreements between two nodes of a network are not enough to solve the constraints for accessing to a certain data set, multilateral agreements for data exchange are needed. We present the implementation of a Multi-Agent System for multilateral exchange agreements of clinical data, and evaluate how those multilateral agreements increase the percentage of data collected by a single node from the total amount of data available in the network. Different strategies to reduce the number of messages needed to achieve an agreement are also considered. The results show that with this collaborative sharing scenario the percentage of data collected dramaticaly improve from bilateral agreements to multilateral ones, up to reach almost all data available in the network.

  8. Future seasonal climate change scenarios for Taiwan using a climate scenario generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tfwala, Samkele; Chen, Su-Chin

    2017-04-01

    Decision makers, resource managers and engineers demand accurate information regarding future changes in climate and variability to better forecast potential impacts. To acquire information about climate change, dedicated experiments using global and regional climate models are needed. These demand considerable computing capacity and expertise. This study explores the use of simple climate change scenario generators in developing future changes of climate change at national level. Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse-gas Induced Climate Change (MAGGIC) combined with a scenario generator (SCENGEN) is applied. MAGGIC/SCENGEN use results from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 - CMIP3 and IPCC fourth assessment report, working group 1 - AR4). Eighteen general circulation models (GCMs) were evaluated based on global and regional performance. From these, 5 models were selected to predict future changes for Taiwan. The models predict temperature increase in all seasons with a high magnitude (3.16 °C) in June-July-August (JJA) season. Precipitation changes vary widely; generally, there is a decline in December-January-February (DJF), March-April-May (MAM) and September-October-November (SON). A significant decline, -8.8 % and -16 %, is observed in MAM by 2020 and 2100, respectively. The study reveals that simple climate change scenarios can be used to predict future changes.

  9. Scenario planning: navigating through today's uncertain world

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Axson, David A.J

    2011-01-01

    ... care reform in the United States. Uncertainty, volatility and risk are here to stay. The world has been transformed from a series of loosely connected, reasonably predictable economies to a complex web of relationships where the global impact of local events is felt almost instantaneously. In this climate the past is not a good predictor of the fut...

  10. Software architecture reliability analysis using failure scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tekinerdogan, Bedir; Sozer, Hasan; Aksit, Mehmet

    2008-01-01

    With the increasing size and complexity of software in embedded systems, software has now become a primary threat for the reliability. Several mature conventional reliability engineering techniques exist in literature but traditionally these have primarily addressed failures in hardware components a

  11. Ethical Challenges Scenario: Youth Involvement in Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooksy, Leslie J.

    2007-01-01

    All evaluators face the challenge of striving to adhere to the highest possible standards of ethical conduct. Translating the AEA's Guiding Principles and the Joint Committee's Program Evaluation Standards into everyday practice, however, can be a complex, uncertain, and frustrating endeavor. Moreover, acting in an ethical fashion can require…

  12. GEOWOW: a drought scenario for multidisciplinary data access and use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santoro, Mattia; Sorichetta, Alessandro; Roglia, Elena; Craglia, Massimo; Nativi, Stefano

    2013-04-01

    , we demonstrate in this instance (i) an improved search capability through semantically related resources, (ii) a harmonized access to the heterogeneous resources discovered, and (iii) a flexible transformation framework to access, download and use the resources discovered, and implement scientifically-sound scenarios that respond to environmental global challenges. This showcase demonstrates how the middleware services provided by the GEO Discovery and Access Broker - DAB (Nativi et al., 2013) - component can be used to address the multidisciplinary interoperability challenges. With respect to discovery, the GEO DAB allows to expand the traditional discovery functionalities using a set of semantically connected concepts delivered through vocabulary services. This makes it possible to obtain an extended result set, where the user can find new unexpected datasets of interest for her/his analysis. Moreover, the use of semantics-enabled queries makes it possible to search and retrieve data resources in multiple languages, which is a crucial issue in global research. With respect to access and use, the GEO DAB makes it possible for users to preview, access, and use the resources discovered according to a common grid environment. Users can define a common grid environment - Coordinate Reference System (CRS), spatial resolution, spatial extent (e.g., a subset of a discovered dataset), and data encoding format - to download all the datasets of interest. This is crucial for advancing an effective integrated exploitation of multidisciplinary data coming from heterogeneous sources. In normal practice, the manipulation of the data discovered (pre-processing) that is necessary ahead of the analysis has to be done by the user. The GEO DAB takes this burden away from the user providing a true added value service. The showcase presented here goes of course beyond the specifics of drought applications, and is of interest because it demonstrates real advancements in the use of complex

  13. Using scenario planning in public health: anticipating alternative futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neiner, Jennifer A; Howze, Elizabeth H; Greaney, Mary L

    2004-01-01

    Scenario planning is a method for anticipating possible alternative futures. Used widely in business applications, it allows planners to anticipate problems, reevaluate assumptions, and reflect on consequences of those alternative futures. In this article, scenario planning is applied to public health, specifically to illustrate the four steps in scenario planning for public health using a health department's desire to address chronic disease prevention and control. An unhealthy diet and physical inactivity are considered to be key risk factors. The scenarios are presented in table format and are for illustration purposes only. Many other plausible scenarios could be constructed. Scenario planning allows stake-holders to define a desired, shared vision of the future, but more important, they can better prepare public health professionals to be successful in a constantly changing environment.

  14. The scenario-based generalization of radiation therapy margins

    CERN Document Server

    Fredriksson, Albin

    2015-01-01

    We give a scenario-based treatment plan optimization formulation that is equivalent to planning with geometric margins if the scenario doses are calculated using the static dose cloud approximation. If the scenario doses are instead calculated more accurately, then our formulation provides a novel robust planning method that overcomes many of the difficulties associated with previous scenario-based robust planning methods. In particular, our method protects only against uncertainties that can occur in practice, it gives a sharp dose fall-off outside high dose regions, and it avoids underdosage of the target in ``easy'' scenarios. The method shares the benefits of the previous scenario-based robust planning methods over geometric margins for applications where the static dose cloud approximation is inaccurate, such as irradiation with few fields and irradiation with ion beams. These properties are demonstrated on a suite of phantom cases planned for treatment with scanned proton beams subject to systematic set...

  15. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  16. Propagation models for non line-of-sight scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasu, A. S.; Anchidin, L.; Tamas, R.; Petrescu, T.

    2016-12-01

    The log-normal propagation model is usually applied for scenarios including a line-of-sight path. However, there are many cases that do not include such a propagation path, e.g. indoor transmission and disaster situations, when radio waves have to penetrate trough ruins. In this paper, we show that the log-normal model can also be applied for non line-of-sight transmission. Both indoor scenario and trough-ruins scenario, are investigated.

  17. Exploring Persona-Scenarios - Using Storytelling to Create Design Ideas

    OpenAIRE

    Madsen, Sabine; Nielsen, Lene

    2010-01-01

    International audience; This paper explores the persona-scenario method by investigating how the method can support project participants in generating shared understandings and design ideas. As persona-scenarios are stories we draw on narrative theory to define what a persona-scenario is and which narrative elements it should consist of. Based on an empirical study a key finding is that despite our inherent human ability to construct, tell, and interpret stories it is not easy to write and pr...

  18. Power System Transformation toward Renewables: Investment Scenarios for Germany

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    We analyze distinctive investment scenarios for the integration of fluctuating renewables in the German power system. Using a combined model for dispatch, transmission, and investment, three different investment options are considered, including gas-fired power plants, pumped hydro storage, and transmission lines. We find that geographically optimized power plant investments dominate in the reference scenarios for 2024 and 2034. In scenarios with decreasedrenewable curtailment, storage and tr...

  19. Scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals

    OpenAIRE

    Dornburg, V.; Hermann, B.G.; Patel, M.K.

    2008-01-01

    Three scenario projections for future market potentials of biobased bulk chemicals produced by means of white biotechnology are developed for Europe (EU-25) until the year 2050, and potential nonrenewable energy savings, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and land use consequences are analyzed. These scenarios assume benign, moderate, and disadvantageous conditions for biobased chemicals. The scenario analysis yields a broad range of values for the possible market development of white biotech...

  20. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  1. Computational studies of origins of life scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathew, Damien Cherian

    Understanding the origins of life on Earth is one of the most intriguing problems facing science today. In the research presented here, we apply computational methods to explore origins of life scenarios. In particular, we focus on the origins of the genetic code and the intersection between geochemistry and a primordial "biochemistry" in which mononucleotides could form short oligoucleotide chains. We also apply quantum chemical methods to a modern biochemical reaction, the charging of tRNA by an aminoacyl-tRNA synthetase, in order to shed light on the possible chemistry one may want to consider in problems relating to the origins of life. The question of how codons came to be associated with specific amino acids in the present form of the genetic code is one fundamental part of gaining insight into the origins of life. Carl Woese and coworkers designed a series of experiments to test associations between amino acids and nucleobases that may have played a role in establishing the genetic code. Through these experiments it was found that a property of amino acids called the polar requirement (PR) is correlated to the organization of the codon table. No other property of amino acids has been found that correlates with the codon table as well as PR, indicating that PR is uniquely related to the modern genetic code. Using molecular dynamics simulations of amino acids in solutions of water and dimethylpyridine used to experimentally measure PR, we show that variations in the partitioning between the two phases as described by radial distribution functions correlate well with the measured PRs. Partition coefficients based on probability densities of the amino acids in each phase have the linear behavior with base concentration as suggested by the PR experiments. We also investigate the possible roles of inorganic mineral surfaces in catalysis and stabilization of reactions essential for early forms of replicating systems that could have evolved into biochemical

  2. Scenario simulation and forecast of land use/cover in northern China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI YueChen; HE ChunYang

    2008-01-01

    Modeling land use/cover scenario changes and its potential impacts on structure and functions of ecosystem in typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use/cover system and ecosystem. Based on the analysis of the existing land use/cover simulation and forecast models, a land use/cover scenario dynamics model by the integration of System Dynamics (SD) model, Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) and Cellular Automata (CA) model is developed with land use/cover scenario changes in northern China in the next 30 years and simulated in this paper. The model is to simulate the land use/cover scenario demands by using a SD model at first, and then allocating the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use/cover suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using BPNN-CA model to satisfy the balance between land use/cover scenario demands and supplies. It integrates the advantages of SD, BPNN and CA. Macro-driving factors and the micro-spatial pattern are also fully taken into account. The BPNN simplifies the identification of the factors' weights used in CA model and improves the reliability of the simulation results. The simulation accuracy of the model developed in this paper was found to be about 74%. It suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complexity of land use/cover system at different scales to some extent and it is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecosystem. The simulated results also indicate that the urban land, water area and forest will increase significantly, and farmland and unable land will decrease gradually. Obvious land use/cover changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone and the southeast area of northern China.

  3. Turbulence mitigation methods for sea scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dijk, Judith; Schutte, Klamer; Nieuwenhuizen, Robert P. J.

    2016-10-01

    Visual and infrared imagery is degraded by turbulence caused by atmospheric conditions. Because the degradation gets worse for longer distances, turbulence especially hampers long range observation. At sea this turbulence affects classification and identification of ships and other objects. State of the art software based processing algorithms assuming a static background assumption will fail in such conditions because of the non-static sea background. Therefore, we propose an adapted processing chain aiming to provide optimal turbulence correction for ships seen in the camera view. First we propose to use standard object detection and tracking methods for an indication of the location of the ship. Subsequently, image registration is performed within the ship's region of interest, covering only the ship of interest. After this region of interest registration, standard turbulence mitigation software can be applied to the region of interest. For ships with other movement than translation only we propose a two-step motion estimation using local optical flow. In this paper we show results of this processing chain for sea scenarios using our TNO turbulence mitigation method. Ship data is processed using the algorithm proposed above and the results are analyzed by both human observation and by image analysis. The improvement of the imagery is qualitatively shown by examining details which cannot be seen without processing and can be seen with processing. Quantitatively, the improvement is related to the energy per spatial frequency in the original and processed images and the signal to noise improvement. This provides a model for the improvement of the results, and is related to the improvement of the classification and identification range. The results show that with this novel approach the classification and identification range of ships is improved.

  4. Scenario tree generation and multi-asset financial optimization problems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geyer, Alois; Hanke, Michael; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2013-01-01

    We compare two popular scenario tree generation methods in the context of financial optimization: moment matching and scenario reduction. Using a simple problem with a known analytic solution, moment matching-when ensuring absence of arbitrage-replicates this solution precisely. On the other hand......, even if the scenario trees generated by scenario reduction are arbitrage-free, the solutions are biased and highly variable. These results hold for correlated and uncorrelated asset returns, as well as for normal and non-normal returns. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  5. Comprehensive Set of Misalignment Scenarios for the CMS Tracker

    CERN Document Server

    Lampen, Tapio; Schilling, Frank-Peter; Schmidt, Alexander; Weber, Markus

    2008-01-01

    New misalignment scenarios are implemented for the CMS Tracker as a set of working hypotheses for simulation studies. Educated guesses of random misalignments are applied to various geometrical structures. $\\chi ^{2}$-invariant deformations are not simulated. The new scenarios are called as SurveyLASOnly, SurveyLASCosmics, $10\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$, $100\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$ and $1000\\, {\\rm pb}^{-1}$ scenarios, and they correspond approximately to the respective situation. Details of the scenarios and a list of possible future improvements are discussed. The impact on track reconstruction performance and Z mass reconstruction are also discussed.

  6. Scenarios for Global Biodiversity in the 21st Century

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Henrique M. Pereira; Paul W. Leadley; Vânia Proença; Rob Alkemade; Jörn P. W. Scharlemann; Juan F. Fernandez-Manjarrés; Miguel B. Araújo; Patricia Balvanera; Reinette Biggs; William W. L. Cheung; Louise Chini; H. David Cooper; Eric L. Gilman; Sylvie Guénette; George C. Hurtt; Henry P. Huntington; Georgina M. Mace; Thierry Oberdorff; Carmen Revenga; Patrícia Rodrigues; Robert J. Scholes; Ussif Rashid Sumaila; Matt Walpole

    2010-01-01

    .... We analyze global terrestrial, freshwater, and marine biodiversity scenarios using a range of measures including extinctions, changes in species abundance, habitat loss, and distribution shifts...

  7. Asymmetric dark matter in extended exo-Higgs scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davoudiasl, Hooman; Giardino, Pier Paolo; Zhang, Cen

    2017-09-01

    The exo-Higgs model can accommodate a successful baryogenesis mechanism that closely mirrors electroweak baryogenesis in the Standard Model, but avoids its shortcomings. We extend the exo-Higgs model by the addition of a singlet complex scalar χ. In our model, χ can be a viable asymmetric dark matter (ADM) candidate. We predict the mass of the ADM particle to be mχ ≈ 1.3 GeV. The leptophilic couplings of χ can provide for efficient annihilation of the ADM pairs. We also discuss the LHC signals of our scenario, and in particular the production and decays of exo-leptons which would lead to "lepton pair plus missing energy" final states. Our model typically predicts potentially detectable gravitational waves originating from the assumed strong first order phase transition at a temperature of ∼ TeV. If the model is further extended to include new heavy vector-like fermions, e.g. from an ultraviolet extension, χ couplings could explain the ∼ 3.5 σ muon g - 2 anomaly.

  8. Modeling the hydrological significance of wetland restoration scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez-Martinez, Edwin; Nejadhashemi, A Pouyan; Woznicki, Sean A; Love, Bradley J

    2014-01-15

    Wetlands provide multiple socio-economic benefits, among them mitigating flood through short- and long-term water storage functions and assisting with reduction of downstream flood peaks. However, their effectiveness in controlling floods is dictated by wetland size and distribution within a watershed. Due to the complexity of wetland hydrological processes at the watershed scale, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to study the impact of wetland restoration on streamflow rates and peaks in the Shiawassee River watershed of Michigan. Wetland restoration scenarios were developed based on combinations of wetland area (50, 100, 250, and 500 ha) and wetland depth (15, 30, 61, and 91 cm). Increasing wetland area, rather than depth, had a greater impact on long-term average daily streamflow. Wetland implementation resulted in negligible reductions in daily peak flow rates and frequency of peak flow events at the watershed outlet. In developing high impact areas for wetland restoration, similar locations were identified for reduction of subbasin and watershed outlet streamflow. However, the best combinations of area/depth differed depending on the goal of the restoration plan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. A scenario-planning approach to human resources for health: the case of community pharmacists in Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gregório, João; Cavaco, Afonso; Velez Lapão, Luís

    2014-10-13

    dispensing. This innovative professional role will require the acquisition or development of competencies in the fields of management, leadership, marketing, information technologies, teamwork abilities, and behavioural and communication skills. To accomplish a sustainable evolution, legislative changes and adequate financial incentives will be beneficial. The scenario development proves to be valuable as a strategic planning tool, not only for understanding future community pharmacist needs in a complex and uncertain environment, but also for other health care professionals.

  10. Carney Complex

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Types of Cancer > Carney Complex Request Permissions Carney Complex Approved by the Cancer.Net Editorial Board , 11/2015 What is Carney complex? Carney complex is a hereditary condition associated with: ...

  11. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garb, Yaakov [Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Midreshet Ben-Gurion, 84990 (Israel); Pulver, Simone [Watson Institute for International Studies, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); VanDeveer, Stacy D [Department of Political Science, University of New Hamsphire, Durham, NH 03824 (United States)], E-mail: stacy.vandeveer@unh.edu

    2008-10-15

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  12. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy D.

    2008-10-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  13. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  14. Comprehensive update on cancer scenario of Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Md Akram Hussain

    2013-01-01

    other major cancer programs have taken place for early detection of breast, cervical and oral cancer by Bangladesh Government and NGOs such as ICDDR′B, BRAC, Ahsania Mission Cancer Hospital, BSMMU, Bangladesh Cancer Society, Ashic Foundation, Amader Gram, AK Khan Healthcare Trust, CANSUP, Oncology club etc. Piloting of cervical cancer vaccination has recently been completed. Improving the cancer scenario overnight is not an easy task but policy makers may become interested and push this agenda forward, if the huge health impact and economic loss caused by cancer become evident to them. Besides, Bangladesh has accepted reduction of cancer morbidity and mortality targets set by United Nations and World Health Organization as a part of global non-communicable disease prevention agreement.

  15. Run scenarios for the linear collider

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    M. Battaglia et al.

    2002-12-23

    We have examined how a Linear Collider program of 1000 fb{sup -1} could be constructed in the case that a very rich program of new physics is accessible at {radical}s {le} 500 GeV. We have examined possible run plans that would allow the measurement of the parameters of a 120 GeV Higgs boson, the top quark, and could give information on the sparticle masses in SUSY scenarios in which many states are accessible. We find that the construction of the run plan (the specific energies for collider operation, the mix of initial state electron polarization states, and the use of special e{sup -}e{sup -} runs) will depend quite sensitively on the specifics of the supersymmetry model, as the decay channels open to particular sparticles vary drastically and discontinuously as the underlying SUSY model parameters are varied. We have explored this dependence somewhat by considering two rather closely related SUSY model points. We have called for operation at a high energy to study kinematic end points, followed by runs in the vicinity of several two body production thresholds once their location is determined by the end point studies. For our benchmarks, the end point runs are capable of disentangling most sparticle states through the use of specific final states and beam polarizations. The estimated sparticle mass precisions, combined from end point and scan data, are given in Table VIII and the corresponding estimates for the mSUGRA parameters are in Table IX. The precision for the Higgs boson mass, width, cross-sections, branching ratios and couplings are given in Table X. The errors on the top quark mass and width are expected to be dominated by the systematic limits imposed by QCD non-perturbative effects. The run plan devotes at least two thirds of the accumulated luminosity near the maximum LC energy, so that the program would be sensitive to unexpected new phenomena at high mass scales. We conclude that with a 1 ab{sup -1} program, expected to take the first 6-7 years

  16. Inferring Evolutionary Scenarios for Protein Domain Compositions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedenhoeft, John; Krause, Roland; Eulenstein, Oliver

    Essential cellular processes are controlled by functional interactions of protein domains, which can be inferred from their evolutionary histories. Methods to reconstruct these histories are challenged by the complexity of reconstructing macroevolutionary events. In this work we model these events using a novel network-like structure that represents the evolution of domain combinations, called plexus. We describe an algorithm to find a plexus that represents the evolution of a given collection of domain histories as phylogenetic trees with the minimum number of macroevolutionary events, and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice.

  17. AIC and BIC for cosmological interacting scenarios

    CERN Document Server

    Arevalo, Fabiola; Moya, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we study linear and non-linear cosmological interactions with analytical solutions, which depend on dark matter and dark energy densities in the framework of General Relativity. By using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) with data from SnIa (Union 2.1 and JLA), H(z), BAO and CMB, we compare the interacting models among themselves and analyze whether more complex interacting models are favored by these criteria. In this context, we find some suitable interactions that alleviate the coincidence problem.

  18. AIC and BIC for cosmological interacting scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Arevalo, Fabiola; Cid, Antonella; Moya, Jorge

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we study linear and non-linear cosmological interactions with analytical solutions, which depend on dark matter and dark energy densities in the framework of General Relativity. By using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) with data from SnIa (Union 2.1 and JLA), H(z), BAO and CMB, we compare the interacting models among themselves and analyze whether more complex interacting models are favored by these criteria. In this context, w...

  19. Modeling Complex Time Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg Svatos

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we analyze complexity of time limits we can find especially in regulated processes of public administration. First we review the most popular process modeling languages. There is defined an example scenario based on the current Czech legislature which is then captured in discussed process modeling languages. Analysis shows that the contemporary process modeling languages support capturing of the time limit only partially. This causes troubles to analysts and unnecessary complexity of the models. Upon unsatisfying results of the contemporary process modeling languages we analyze the complexity of the time limits in greater detail and outline lifecycles of a time limit using the multiple dynamic generalizations pattern. As an alternative to the popular process modeling languages there is presented PSD process modeling language, which supports the defined lifecycles of a time limit natively and therefore allows keeping the models simple and easy to understand.

  20. Exploring the potential of combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenarios for robust strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, de Jilske Olda; Kok, Kasper; Hoogstra-Klein, Marjanke Alberttine

    2017-01-01

    Literature critiques current predictive scenario approaches applied in the forest sector. Backcasting -a means to create normative scenarios- seems promising, but sparsely used. Combining backcasting with exploratory scenarios (combined scenario approach) seems appropriate to address these

  1. Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Emma L; Few, Roger; Brown, Katrina

    2008-09-01

    Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.

  2. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  3. Promoting Decentralized Sustainable Energy Systems in Different Supply Scenarios: The Role of Autarky Aspiration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franz Ecker

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The development of decentralized renewable energy systems is of crucial importance for the decarbonization of energy generation worldwide. Purchase decisions regarding innovative energy systems depend to some extent on consumers’ perception of the systems’ degree of autarky. We assumed that, in addition to the energetic perspective, consumers associate other non-energetic facets such as independence, autonomy, self-sufficiency, or control with the concept of autarky. These psychological facets of autarky were expected to contribute to purchase decisions. In Study 1, participants (N = 168 evaluated three future energy supply scenarios. The scenarios varied regarding their range of autarky (household/neighborhood/small town, but the individually realized degree of energetic autarky did not vary. Participants reported a higher willingness to pay in connection with a higher perceived psychological autarky for the Household Scenario. Study 1’s findings were confirmed by Study 2, in which qualitative interviews (N = 13 also revealed that participants favored the Household Scenario on several points. These evaluations were driven by the anticipated psychological facets of autarky that is the subjective perception of being independent, autonomous, self-sufficient, energy secure, and of control. To promote an adoption of renewable energy systems, these psychological autarky facets need to be addressed. Enabling the people to self-determine, control, and secure their energy provision even in complex organizational settings in such a manner is likely to increase their acceptance and therefore foster the required social transition as a whole.

  4. Methodological issues in product evaluation: the influence of testing environment and task scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sauer, Juergen; Sonderegger, Andreas

    2011-03-01

    This article examines the utility of two commonly used approaches in the evaluation of interactive consumer products: lab-based testing and single task scenarios. These are compared to two more complex and resource-demanding approaches (field-based testing and dual task scenarios) with regard to the test results they produce. An experiment with N = 80 users was carried out, employing a 2 (laboratory vs. field) by 2 (single task vs. dual task scenario) by 2 (on-product information: present vs. absent) between-subjects design. On-product information (advising users to save water and electricity during kettle usage) represented the intervention, of which the effects on user behaviour were compared under the different experimental conditions. The main finding was that the impact of on-product information on user behaviour was strongest in the lab-based testing environment using a single task scenario (i.e., most economical testing condition), compared to the three other experimental conditions. The work found similar effects for self-report measures. The findings of the study point to the risk that the effects of system redesign on user behaviour may be overestimated if low-fidelity testing approaches are employed. The relevance of these findings for other application areas is also discussed (e.g., design of warnings).

  5. Salmon Futures: Stakeholder-driven salmon management scenarios under changing environmental conditions on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trammell, E. J.; Krupa, M.

    2015-12-01

    Understanding the adaptive capacity of individuals within natural resource management agencies is a key component of assessing the vulnerability of salmon to future environmental change. We seek to explore the adaptive capacity of natural resource agencies on Alaska's Kenai Peninsula by exploring the drivers and implications of different salmon allocation scenarios through participatory workshops with managers. We present here the initial results from the first workshop, which explores the various drivers responsible for changes in salmon allocation. Ranging from global to local, and biophysical to socioeconomic, these drivers are also linked to specific actors in the region. These complex interactions comprise the Kenai Peninsula's social-ecological system and determine its ability to react to change. Using a stakeholder-driven scenario framework, we aim to: 1) explore the adaptive capacity of natural resource agencies in the region by exploring and exposing managers to different but logically coherent salmon allocation scenarios; 2) build stakeholder confidence in the science of environmental change on the Kenai Peninsula; and 3) develop a decision support tool that helps regional resource managers better understand their changing environment. We utilize and present the scenario framework as a platform for integrating hydrologic, landscape, and cultural change information into actionable decisions, crafted by the stakeholders, so that landscape change on the Kenai becomes more coordinated.

  6. Spatially explicit scenario analysis for hydrologic services in an urbanizing agricultural watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, J.; Booth, E.; Carpenter, S. R.; Turner, M.

    2013-12-01

    The sustainability of hydrologic services (benefits to people generated by terrestrial ecosystem effects on freshwater) is challenged by changes in climate and land use. Despite the importance of hydrologic services, few studies have investigated how the provision of ecosystem services related to freshwater quantity and quality may vary in magnitude and spatial pattern for alternative future trajectories. Such analyses may provide useful information for sustaining freshwater resources in the face of a complex and uncertain future. We analyzed the supply of multiple hydrologic services from 2010 to 2070 across a large urbanizing agricultural watershed in the Upper Midwest of the United States, and asked the following: (i) What are the potential trajectories for the supply of hydrologic services under contrasting but plausible future scenarios? (ii) Where on the landscape is the delivery of hydrologic services most vulnerable to future changes? The Nested Watershed scenario represents extreme climate change (warmer temperatures and more frequent extreme events) and a concerted response from institutions, whereas in the Investment in Innovation scenario, climate change is less severe and technological innovations play a major role. Despite more extreme climate in the Nested Watershed scenario, all hydrologic services (i.e., freshwater supply, surface water quality, flood regulation) were maintained or enhanced (~30%) compared to the 2010 baseline, by strict government interventions that prioritized freshwater resources. Despite less extreme climate in the Investment in Innovation scenario and advances in green technology, only surface water quality and flood regulation were maintained or increased (~80%); freshwater supply declined by 25%, indicating a potential future tradeoff between water quality and quantity. Spatially, the locations of greatest vulnerability (i.e., decline) differed by service and among scenarios. In the Nested Watershed scenario, although

  7. Misrepresentation of the IPCC CO2 emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Manning, Martin; Edmonds, James A.; Emori, S.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Joos, Fortunat; Kainuma, M.; Keeling, Ralph; Kram, Tom; Manning, Andrew; Meinhausen, Malte; Moss, Richard H.; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Rose, Steven K.; Smith, Steven J.; Swart, Robert; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2010-06-01

    Estimates of recent fossil fuel CO2 emissions have been compared with the IPCC SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) emission scenarios that had been developed for analysis of future climate change, impacts and mitigation. In some cases this comparison uses averages across subgroups of SRES scenarios and for one category of greenhouse gases (industrial sources of CO2). That approach can be misleading and cause confusion as it is inconsistent with many of the papers on future climate change projections that are based on a specific subset of closely scrutinized SRES scenarios, known as illustrative marker scenarios. Here, we show that comparison between recent estimates of fossil fuel emissions trends and the SRES illustrative marker scenarios leads to the conclusion that recent trends are not outside the SRES range. Furthermore, the recent economic downturn appears to have brought actual emission back toward the middle of the SRES illustrative marker scenarios. We also note that SRES emission scenarios are designed to reflect potential alternative long-term trends in a world without climate policy intervention and the trend in the resulting climate change is not sensitive to short-term fluctuations.

  8. USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jakimi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

  9. Safety restraint systems in heavy truck rollover scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Slaats, P.M.A.; Coo, P.J.A. de

    2003-01-01

    Safety restraint systems have been widely applied in the passenger car industry. The heavy truck industry has followed along, integrating the seat belts in the seat system. The effectiveness of seat belts, in particular in rollover scenarios, was studied for a number of heavy truck rollover scenario

  10. Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reinette Biggs

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experiences in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, we suggest that the desired degree of cross-scale linkage depends on the primary aim of the scenario exercise. Loosely linked multiscale scenarios appear more appropriate when the primary aim is to engage in exploratory dialog with stakeholders. Tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios seem to work best when the main objective is to further our understanding of cross-scale interactions or to assess trade-offs between scales. The main disadvantages of tightly coupled cross-scale scenarios are that their development requires substantial time and financial resources, and that they often suffer loss of credibility at one or more scales. The reasons for developing multiscale scenarios and the expectations associated with doing so therefore need to be carefully evaluated when choosing the desired degree of cross-scale linkage in a particular scenario exercise.

  11. Linking Futures across Scales: a Dialog on Multiscale Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biggs, R.; Raudsepp-Hearne, C.; Atkinson-Palombo, C.; Bohensky, E.; Boyd, E.; Cundill, G.; Fox, H.; Ingram, S.; Kok, K.; Spehar, S.; Tengö, M.; Timmer, D.; Zurek, M.

    2007-01-01

    Scenario analysis is a useful tool for exploring key uncertainties that may shape the future of social-ecological systems. This paper explores the methods, costs, and benefits of developing and linking scenarios of social-ecological systems across multiple spatial scales. Drawing largely on experien

  12. Energy scenarios for European passenger transport in the year 2030

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rienstra, S.A.; Smokers, R.T.M.; Nijkamp, P.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper four energy scenarios for Westy-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a base-line case is described and analysed. Next, for each scenario we sketch how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various

  13. Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Child-Specific Exposure Scenarios Examples (Final Report) is intended to be a companion document to the Exposure Factors Handbook (U.S. EPA 2011). The example scenarios were compiled from questions and inquiries received from users of the Exposure Factors Handbo...

  14. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edeling, W. N.; Cinnella, P.; Dwight, R. P.

    2014-10-01

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  15. Decision Driven Scenario Planning for Process-Level Interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chemarck, Thomas J.; Payne, Tiffani D.

    2005-01-01

    This article builds on previous work that classified types of scenario planning as effective or relevant for particular situations, by adding consideration for levels within the organization. In addition, the argument is built for using a particular form of scenarios to anticipate or explore process level problems and outcomes. The problem of…

  16. Predictive RANS simulations via Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edeling, W.N., E-mail: W.N.Edeling@tudelft.nl [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands); Cinnella, P., E-mail: P.Cinnella@ensam.eu [Arts et Métiers ParisTech, DynFluid laboratory, 151 Boulevard de l' Hospital, 75013 Paris (France); Dwight, R.P., E-mail: R.P.Dwight@tudelft.nl [Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Aerospace Engineering, Kluyverweg 2, Delft (Netherlands)

    2014-10-15

    The turbulence closure model is the dominant source of error in most Reynolds-Averaged Navier–Stokes simulations, yet no reliable estimators for this error component currently exist. Here we develop a stochastic, a posteriori error estimate, calibrated to specific classes of flow. It is based on variability in model closure coefficients across multiple flow scenarios, for multiple closure models. The variability is estimated using Bayesian calibration against experimental data for each scenario, and Bayesian Model-Scenario Averaging (BMSA) is used to collate the resulting posteriors, to obtain a stochastic estimate of a Quantity of Interest (QoI) in an unmeasured (prediction) scenario. The scenario probabilities in BMSA are chosen using a sensor which automatically weights those scenarios in the calibration set which are similar to the prediction scenario. The methodology is applied to the class of turbulent boundary-layers subject to various pressure gradients. For all considered prediction scenarios the standard-deviation of the stochastic estimate is consistent with the measurement ground truth. Furthermore, the mean of the estimate is more consistently accurate than the individual model predictions.

  17. Scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil in 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renata Giovinazzo Spers

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Brazilian milk production has grown steadily and in 2004 the country became self-sufficient in dairy production. This article develops possible scenarios for the milk production chain in Brazil for the year 2020 in order to contribute to decisions that must be made by stakeholders. A literature review on foresight and the use of scenarios was conducted, and a scenario writing approach based on Wright and Spers (2006 was adopted, which includes the use of the Delphi method, Michael Porter's Five Competitive Forces model, Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM (WRIGHT, 1991 and quantitative projections. This methodology provided four scenarios, with quantitative and qualitative elements: two exploratory scenarios ("milk, the new agribusiness star" and "a wasted future", a most probable scenario ("continuous but uneven growth" and a desired scenario ("competitive family agriculture". Overall, it is possible to note many market opportunities, as well as niche markets and the strengthening of cooperatives. Future prospects are also favorable to the dairy industry in general, but nearly all scenarios point to a concentration in the industrial sphere.

  18. Scenario building as a process and tool in urban governance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Khan; L. Miranda Sara; J. Sydenstricker-Neto; C. Sutherland; M. Hordijk

    2015-01-01

    Scenario building and related analysis is useful in several fields, ranging from military and business planning to its more recent applications in addressing global challenges such as climate change or economic crises. This chapter provides an overview of scenario building in urban governance. It in

  19. Visualization of Learning Scenarios with UML4LD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laforcade, Pierre

    2007-01-01

    Present Educational Modelling Languages are used to formally specify abstract learning scenarios in a machine-interpretable format. Current tooling does not provide teachers/designers with some graphical facilities to help them in reusing existent scenarios. They need human-readable representations. This paper discusses the UML4LD experimental…

  20. Towards Validating Game Scenarios for Teaching Conflict Resolution

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cheong, Yun-Gyung; Grappiolo, Corrado; Pedersen, Christoffer Holmgård;

    2013-01-01

    Teaching conflict resolution skills via serious games has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper describes game scenarios that were developed to evoke variant levels of conflict intensity to children. To validate the scenarios, we implemented a prototype and created videos from...