Fantasy and Reality in the History of Weather and Climate Control

Science.gov (United States)

Fleming, J. R.

2005-12-01

This presentation examines the history of large-scale weather and climate engineering since 1840, with special reference to imaginative and speculative literature and with special relevance to ethical and policy issues. Ultimate control of the weather and climate embodies both our wildest fantasies and our greatest fears. Fantasy often informs reality (and vice-versa). NASA managers know this well, as do Trekkies. The best science fiction authors typically build from the current state of a field to construct futuristic scenarios that reveal and explore the human condition. Scientists as well often venture into flights of fancy. Though not widely documented, the fantasy-reality axis is also a prominent aspect of the history of the geosciences. James Espy's proposal in the 1840s to enhance precipitation by lighting huge fires, thus stimulating convective updrafts, preceded the widespread charlatanism of the rain-makers, or so-called "pluviculturalists," in the western U.S. One hundred years later, promising discoveries in "cloud seeding" by Irving Langmuir and his associates at the General Electric Corporation rapidly devolved into unsupportable proposals and questionable practices by military and commercial rain-makers seeking to control the weather. During the Cold War, Soviet engineers also promoted a chilling vision (to Westerners) of global climate control. Recently, rather immodest proposals to "fix" a climate system perceived to be out of control have received wide circulation. In 2003 the U.S. Pentagon released a report recommending that the government should "explore geo-engineering options that control the climate." In 2004 a symposium in Cambridge, England set out to "identify, debate, and evaluate" possible, but highly controversial options for the design and construction of engineering projects for the management and mitigation of global climate change. This talk will locate the history of weather and climate modification within a long tradition of

Climate change & extreme weather vulnerability assessment framework.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-01

The Federal Highway Administrations (FHWAs) Climate Change and Extreme Weather Vulnerability : Assessment Framework is a guide for transportation agencies interested in assessing their vulnerability : to climate change and extreme weather event...

Climate adaption and post-fire restoration of a foundational perennial in cold desert: Insights from intraspecific variation in response to weather

Science.gov (United States)

Brabec, Martha M.; Germino, Matthew; Richardson, Bryce A.

2017-01-01

1.The loss of foundational but fire-intolerant perennials such as sagebrush due to increases in fire size and frequency in semiarid regions has motivated efforts to restore them, often with mixed or even no success. Seeds of sagebrush Artemisia tridentata and related species must be moved considerable distances from seed source to planting sites, but such transfers have not been guided by an understanding of local climate adaptation. Initial seedling establishment and its response to weather are a key demographic bottleneck that likely varies among subspecies and populations of sagebrush. 2.We assessed differences in survival, growth, and physiological responses of sagebrush to weather among eleven seed sources that varied in subspecies, cytotype, and climates-of-origin over 18 months following outplanting. Diploid or polyploid populations of mountain, Wyoming, and basin big sagebrush (A.tridentata ssp. vaseyana, A.tridentata ssp. wyomingensis, and A.tridentata ssp. tridentata, respectively) were planted onto five burned sites that normally support A.t.wyomingensis with some A.t.tridentata. 3.A.t.wyomingensis had the most growth and survival, and tetraploid populations had greater survival and height than diploids. Seasonal timing of mortality varied among the subspecies/cytotypes and was more closely related to minimum temperatures than water deficit. 4.Temperatures required to induce ice formation were up to 6°C more negative in 4n-A.t.tridentata and A.t.wyomingensis than other subspecies/cytotypes, indicating greater freezing avoidance. In contrast, freezing resistance of photosynthesis varied only 1°C among subspecies/cytotypes, being greatest in A.t.wyomingensis and least in the subspecies normally considered most cold-adapted,A.t.vaseyana. A large spectrum of reliance on freezing-avoidance vs. freezing-tolerance was observed and corresponded to differences in post-fire survivorship among subspecies/cytotypes. Differences in water deficit

Evaluation of simplified ventilation system with direct air supply through the facade in a school in a cold climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mysen, M. [Norwegian Building Research Institute, Blindern, Oslo (Norway); Department of Energy and Process Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Trondheim (Norway); Schild, P. G.; Hellstrand, V.; Thunshelle, K. [Norwegian Building Research Institute, Blindern, Oslo (Norway)

2004-07-01

Many educational buildings in industrialised countries have poor indoor climate, according to today's knowledge about the impact of indoor climate on well-being and productivity. Budget restrictions and practical limitations such as lack of space for central air handling units and ventilation ducts, have motivated the application of simplified ventilation systems in some schools, such as taking unconditioned supply air directly from the facade. One such school was recently evaluated in Norway. On cold days, thermal comfort in the classroom deteriorated due to cold down draught from the supply outlet. In addition, moist and fertile conditions for microbiological growth were observed in the air supply ductwork. On the other hand the same pupils are more satisfied with the school and have less sick building syndrome (SBS) symptoms during winter than summer. An improved control strategy with a temperature-compensated CO{sub 2} set-point for controlling the air flow is suggested. This could improve thermal comfort and reduce energy use without compromising perceived air quality (PAQ) during cold weather. Furthermore it could improve indoor air quality (IAQ) during warm weather with only a slight increase of energy use. Further evaluation of an improved solution is needed before such a ventilation concept can be recommended in cold climates. (author)

Basalt Weathering in a Cold and Icy Climate: Three Sisters, Oregon as an Analog for Early Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Rampe, E. B.; Horgan, B.; Smith, R. J.; Scudder, N. A.; Rutledge, A. M.; Bamber, E.; Morris, R. V.

2017-01-01

There is abundant evidence for liquid water on early Mars, but the debate remains whether early Mars was warm and wet or cold and icy with punctuated periods of melting. To further investigate the hypothesis of a cold and icy early Mars, we collected rocks and sediments from the Collier and Diller glacial valleys in the Three Sisters volcanic complex in Oregon. We analyzed rocks and sediments with X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning and transmission electron microscopies with energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM, TEM, EDS), and visible, short-wave infrared (VSWIR) and thermal-IR (TIR) spectroscopies to characterize chemical weathering and sediment transport through the valleys. Here, we focus on the composition and mineralogy of the weathering products and how they compare to those identified on the martian surface. Phyllosilicates (smectite), zeolites, and poorly crystalline phases were discovered in pro- and supra-glacial sediments, whereas Si-rich regelation films were found on hand samples and boulders in the proglacial valleys. Most phyllosilicates and zeolites are likely detrital, originating from hydrothermally altered units on North Sister. TEM-EDS analyses of the flour samples demonstrate a variety of poorly crystalline (i.e., no long-range crystallographic order) phases: iron oxides, devitrified volcanic glass, and Fe-Si-Al phases. The CheMin XRD on the Curiosity rover in Gale crater has identified significant amounts of X-ray amorphous materials in all samples measured to date. The amorphous component is likely a combination of silicates, iron oxides, and sulfates. Although we have not yet observed amorphous sulfate in the samples from Three Sisters, the variety of poorly crystalline weathering products found at this site is consistent with the variable composition of the X-ray amorphous component identified by CheMin. We suggest that these amorphous phases on Mars could have formed in a similarly cold and icy environment.

Properties of early-stage concrete with setting-accelerating tablet in cold weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ryou, Jae-Suk; Lee, Yong-Soo

2012-01-01

Highlights: ► Tablets were used as accelerators, which have a merit in cold weather. ► Tablets are almost not used at all as construction materials (powdered admixtures). ► 0.5 and 1.0% tablets satisfied workability and strength for early-frost prevention. ► It was found that it is possible for the 0.5 and 1.0% tablets in cold weather. - Abstract: Various methods are used at the early stages to control setting-time and strength of concrete, when cold-weather concrete is utilized. Among these methods is one that involves the use of an accelerator. Although economical, accelerators have difficulty securing workability because their early hydration makes them react rapidly. Therefore, how to make a tablet for cold-weather concrete, as with the existing medicines and foods, is discussed in this study, including the following items: mortar setting-time, workability by elapsed time, early strength to assure the development of adequate strength, and freezing–thawing resistance. As a result, both the 0.5 and 1.0% tablets were found to be superior. Thus, workability can be secured, as well as the development of early strength to prevent early frost.

Extreme Weather and Climate: Workshop Report

Science.gov (United States)

Sobel, Adam; Camargo, Suzana; Debucquoy, Wim; Deodatis, George; Gerrard, Michael; Hall, Timothy; Hallman, Robert; Keenan, Jesse; Lall, Upmanu; Levy, Marc;

Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

Science.gov (United States)

Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

2013-12-01

Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Auffhammer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Schlenker, W.; Sobel, A.

2013-06-28

Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

Mountain Warfare and Cold Weather Operations

Science.gov (United States)

2016-04-29

is important to determine whether the bottom is composed of sand, gravel, silt, clay , or rock and in what proportions. For more information see ATP...these planning factors by about two quarts per individual. 6-22. Water increases in viscosity in extreme cold weather, and therefore moves slower...In arctic conditions, fuel spilled on flesh can cause instant frostbite if the proper gloves are not worn. 6-32. Multi- viscosity oil (15W-40) is

Tackling Weather and Climate Change Creatively in Science

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Murray

2013-01-01

In this article, the author offers some practical support for teaching about weather, climate and climate change. In England, weather and climate are traditionally taught within the geography curriculum, although it is actually a very scientific subject, involving skills such as making careful observations and measurements, interpreting data…

NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit (WCT)

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NOAA Weather and Climate Toolkit is an application that provides simple visualization and data export of weather and climatological data archived at NCDC. The...

Weather, not climate, defines distributions of vagile bird species.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

April E Reside

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Accurate predictions of species distributions are essential for climate change impact assessments. However the standard practice of using long-term climate averages to train species distribution models might mute important temporal patterns of species distribution. The benefit of using temporally explicit weather and distribution data has not been assessed. We hypothesized that short-term weather associated with the time a species was recorded should be superior to long-term climate measures for predicting distributions of mobile species. METHODOLOGY: We tested our hypothesis by generating distribution models for 157 bird species found in Australian tropical savannas (ATS using modelling algorithm Maxent. The variable weather of the ATS supports a bird assemblage with variable movement patterns and a high incidence of nomadism. We developed "weather" models by relating climatic variables (mean temperature, rainfall, rainfall seasonality and temperature seasonality from the three month, six month and one year period preceding each bird record over a 58 year period (1950-2008. These weather models were compared against models built using long-term (30 year averages of the same climatic variables. CONCLUSIONS: Weather models consistently achieved higher model scores than climate models, particularly for wide-ranging, nomadic and desert species. Climate models predicted larger range areas for species, whereas weather models quantified fluctuations in habitat suitability across months, seasons and years. Models based on long-term climate averages over-estimate availability of suitable habitat and species' climatic tolerances, masking species potential vulnerability to climate change. Our results demonstrate that dynamic approaches to distribution modelling, such as incorporating organism-appropriate temporal scales, improves understanding of species distributions.

Review on the Strength Development Required for the Concrete Structure of Nuclear Power Plant under Cold Weather Conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Kyung Teak; Park, Chun Jin; Ryu, Gum Sung; Kim, Do Gyeum; Lee, Jang Hwa [Korea Institute of Construction Technology, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

2011-10-15

As a part of a Department of Energy-Nuclear According to the specifications for the construction execution for a nuclear power plant (NPP), the cold weather concrete should be facilitated that comply with the regulations of ACI-306R. Here, in terms of the standards applied to the cold weather concrete, such concrete should be applied in the case where the daily average temperature is 5 .deg. C or less. So, according to the analysis on the average temperature in winter over the last one year at each NPP construction area, it was found that such had lowered by about 0.5 - 2 .deg. C as compared to the temperature during the normal years (the last ten years) and the number of days applied to the cold weather concrete according to the ACI regulations was shown as 83, so as around 1/4 of year falls into the cold weather conditions and furthermore the recent weather is getting severe, it is necessary to perform the appropriate insulation curing for the cold weather concrete. On the other hand, according to the regulations with regards to the curing conditions for cold weather concrete, the insulation curing of such should be appropriately performed under an environment of 5 .deg. C or greater until the strength of 3.5 MPa (500 Psi) develops. Likewise, according to the regulations regarding the cold weather concrete in the domestic concrete specifications, the insulation curing should be performed until a strength development of 5 MPa (715 Psi) considering the safety factor indicated to the ACI regulation under the temperature of 5 .deg. C or greater. According to the above-mentioned regulations, the NPP structure is required to develop a minimum strength of 5 MPa or greater, and to maintain such important qualities, including strength development, early anti-freezing and duality under cold weather conditions. However, even though the early strength of 5 MPa or greater is secured under the recent abnormal weather conditions and cold weather conditions, if the structure is

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change.

Local Climate Experts: The Influence of Local TV Weather Information on Climate Change Perceptions

Science.gov (United States)

Bloodhart, Brittany; Maibach, Edward; Myers, Teresa; Zhao, Xiaoquan

2015-01-01

Individuals who identify changes in their local climate are also more likely to report that they have personally experienced global climate change. One way that people may come to recognize that their local climate is changing is through information provided by local TV weather forecasters. Using random digit dialing, 2,000 adult local TV news viewers in Virginia were surveyed to determine whether routine exposure to local TV weather forecasts influences their perceptions of extreme weather in Virginia, and their perceptions about climate change more generally. Results indicate that paying attention to TV weather forecasts is associated with beliefs that extreme weather is becoming more frequent in Virginia, which in turn is associated with stronger beliefs and concerns about climate change. These associations were strongest for individuals who trust their local TV weathercaster as a source of information about climate change, and for those who identify as politically conservative or moderate. The findings add support to the literature suggesting that TV weathercasters can play an important role in educating the public about climate change. PMID:26551357

Seafloor weathering buffering climate: numerical experiments

Science.gov (United States)

Farahat, N. X.; Archer, D. E.; Abbot, D. S.

2013-12-01

Continental silicate weathering is widely held to consume atmospheric CO2 at a rate controlled in part by temperature, resulting in a climate-weathering feedback [Walker et al., 1981]. It has been suggested that weathering of oceanic crust of warm mid-ocean ridge flanks also has a CO2 uptake rate that is controlled by climate [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001; Brady and Gislason, 1997]. Although this effect might not be significant on present-day Earth [Caldeira, 1995], seafloor weathering may be more pronounced during snowball states [Le Hir et al., 2008], during the Archean when seafloor spreading rates were faster [Sleep and Zahnle, 2001], and on waterworld planets [Abbot et al., 2012]. Previous studies of seafloor weathering have made significant contributions using qualitative, generally one-box, models, and the logical next step is to extend this work using a spatially resolved model. For example, experiments demonstrate that seafloor weathering reactions are temperature dependent, but it is not clear whether the deep ocean temperature affects the temperature at which the reactions occur, or if instead this temperature is set only by geothermal processes. Our goal is to develop a 2-D numerical model that can simulate hydrothermal circulation and resulting alteration of oceanic basalts, and can therefore address such questions. A model of diffusive and convective heat transfer in fluid-saturated porous media simulates hydrothermal circulation through porous oceanic basalt. Unsteady natural convection is solved for using a Darcy model of porous media flow that has been extensively benchmarked. Background hydrothermal circulation is coupled to mineral reaction kinetics of basaltic alteration and hydrothermal mineral precipitation. In order to quantify seafloor weathering as a climate-weathering feedback process, this model focuses on hydrothermal reactions that influence carbon uptake as well as ocean alkalinity: silicate rock dissolution, calcium and magnesium leaching

Probability for Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, L. A.

2013-12-01

Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

A generalized theory of sun-climate/weather link and climatic change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1988-07-01

We generalize the theory of Sun-Climate/weather links and climatic change developed earlier by the author. On the basis of this theory, we show mathematically that key climatic/weather parameters are continuously subjected to determinable amplitude modulations and other variations which may be useful in climatic prediction work. A number of new and known terrestrial oscillations in climate and atmospheric behaviour in general, including the known quasi-biennial oscillations and many others, are deduced from the theory and accounted for in terms of their causative physical processes. Finally we briefly discuss the possibility of applying the theory to the planets Mars and Venus as well as Saturn's largest satellite, Titan. (author). 30 refs, 1 fig

Extreme climate, not extreme weather: the summer of 1816 in Geneva, Switzerland

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Auchmann

2012-02-01

Full Text Available We analyze weather and climate during the "Year without Summer" 1816 using sub-daily data from Geneva, Switzerland, representing one of the climatically most severely affected regions. The record includes twice daily measurements and observations of air temperature, pressure, cloud cover, wind speed, and wind direction as well as daily measurements of precipitation. Comparing 1816 to a contemporary reference period (1799–1821 reveals that the coldness of the summer of 1816 was most prominent in the afternoon, with a shift of the entire distribution function of temperature anomalies by 3–4 °C. Early morning temperature anomalies show a smaller change for the mean, a significant decrease in the variability, and no changes in negative extremes. Analyzing cloudy and cloud-free conditions separately suggests that an increase in the number of cloudy days was to a significant extent responsible for these features. A daily weather type classification based on pressure, pressure tendency, and wind direction shows extremely anomalous frequencies in summer 1816, with only one day (compared to 20 in an average summer classified as high-pressure situation but a tripling of low-pressure situations. The afternoon temperature anomalies expected from only a change in weather types was much stronger negative in summer 1816 than in any other year. For precipitation, our analysis shows that the 80% increase in summer precipitation compared to the reference period can be explained by 80% increase in the frequency of precipitation, while no change could be found neither in the average intensity of precipitation nor in the frequency distribution of extreme precipitation. In all, the analysis shows that the regional circulation and local cloud cover played a dominant role. It also shows that the summer of 1816 was an example of extreme climate, not extreme weather.

Climate Central World Weather Attribution (WWA) project: Real-time extreme weather event attribution analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Haustein, Karsten; Otto, Friederike; Uhe, Peter; Allen, Myles; Cullen, Heidi

2015-04-01

Extreme weather detection and attribution analysis has emerged as a core theme in climate science over the last decade or so. By using a combination of observational data and climate models it is possible to identify the role of climate change in certain types of extreme weather events such as sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events and droughts or heavy rainfall and flood events. These analyses are usually carried out after an extreme event has occurred when reanalysis and observational data become available. The Climate Central WWA project will exploit the increasing forecast skill of seasonal forecast prediction systems such as the UK MetOffice GloSea5 (Global seasonal forecasting system) ensemble forecasting method. This way, the current weather can be fed into climate models to simulate large ensembles of possible weather scenarios before an event has fully emerged yet. This effort runs along parallel and intersecting tracks of science and communications that involve research, message development and testing, staged socialization of attribution science with key audiences, and dissemination. The method we employ uses a very large ensemble of simulations of regional climate models to run two different analyses: one to represent the current climate as it was observed, and one to represent the same events in the world that might have been without human-induced climate change. For the weather "as observed" experiment, the atmospheric model uses observed sea surface temperature (SST) data from GloSea5 (currently) and present-day atmospheric gas concentrations to simulate weather events that are possible given the observed climate conditions. The weather in the "world that might have been" experiments is obtained by removing the anthropogenic forcing from the observed SSTs, thereby simulating a counterfactual world without human activity. The anthropogenic forcing is obtained by comparing the CMIP5 historical and natural simulations

Increasing weather-related impacts on European population under climate and demographic change

Science.gov (United States)

Forzieri, Giovanni; Cescatti, Alessandro; Batista e Silva, Filipe; Kovats, Sari R.; Feyen, Luc

2017-04-01

Over the last three decades the overwhelming majority of disasters have been caused by weather-related events. The observed rise in weather-related disaster losses has been largely attributed to increased exposure and to a lesser degree to global warming. Recent studies suggest an intensification in the climatology of multiple weather extremes in Europe over the coming decades in view of climate change, while urbanization continues. In view of these pressures, understanding and quantifying the potential impacts of extreme weather events on future societies is imperative in order to identify where and to what extent their livelihoods will be at risk in the future, and develop timely and effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies. Here we show a comprehensive assessment of single- and multi-hazard impacts on the European population until the year 2100. For this purpose, we developed a novel methodology that quantifies the human impacts as a multiplicative function of hazard, exposure and population vulnerability. We focus on seven of the most impacting weather-related hazards - including heat and cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal floods and windstorms - and evaluated their spatial and temporal variations in intensity and frequency under a business-as-usual climate scenario. Long-term demographic dynamics were modelled to assess exposure developments under a corresponding middle-of-the-road scenario. Vulnerability of humans to weather extremes was appraised based on more than 2300 records of weather-related disasters. The integration of these elements provides a range of plausible estimates of extreme weather-related risks for future European generations. Expected impacts on population are quantified in terms of fatalities and number of people exposed. We find a staggering rise in fatalities from extreme weather events, with the projected death toll by the end of the century amounting to more than 50 times the present number of people

Toward seamless weather-climate and environmental prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Brunet, Gilbert

2016-04-01

Over the last decade or so, predicting the weather, climate and atmospheric composition has emerged as one of the most important areas of scientific endeavor. This is partly because the remarkable increase in skill of current weather forecasts has made society more and more dependent on them day to day for a whole range of decision making. And it is partly because climate change is now widely accepted and the realization is growing rapidly that it will affect every person in the world profoundly, either directly or indirectly. One of the important endeavors of our societies is to remain at the cutting-edge of modelling and predicting the evolution of the fully coupled environmental system: atmosphere (weather and composition), oceans, land surface (physical and biological), and cryosphere. This effort will provide an increasingly accurate and reliable service across all the socio-economic sectors that are vulnerable to the effects of adverse weather and climatic conditions, whether now or in the future. This emerging challenge was at the center of the World Weather Open Science Conference (Montreal, 2014).The outcomes of the conference are described in the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) book: Seamless Prediction of the Earth System: from Minutes to Months, (G. Brunet, S. Jones, P. Ruti Eds., WMO-No. 1156, 2015). It is freely available on line at the WMO website. We will discuss some of the outcomes of the conference for the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) and Global Atmospheric Watch (GAW) long term goals and provide examples of seamless modelling and prediction across a range of timescales at convective and sub-kilometer scales for regional coupled forecasting applications at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC).

Climate, weather, and hops

Science.gov (United States)

As climate and weather become more variable, hop growers face increased uncertainty in making decisions about their crop. Given the unprecedented nature of these changes, growers may no longer have enough information and intuitive understanding to adequately assess the situation and evaluate their m...

Impacts of cold weather on all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Texas, 1990-2011.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Tsun-Hsuan; Li, Xiao; Zhao, Jing; Zhang, Kai

2017-06-01

Cold weather was estimated to account for more than half of weather-related deaths in the U.S. during 2006-2010. Studies have shown that cold-related excessive mortality is especially relevant with decreasing latitude or in regions with mild winter. However, only limited studies have been conducted in the southern U.S. The purpose of our study is to examine impacts of cold weather on mortality in 12 major Texas Metropolitan Areas (MSAs) for the 22-year period, 1990-2011. Our study used a two-stage approach to examine the cold-mortality association. We first applied distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) to 12 major MSAs to estimate cold effects for each area. A random effects meta-analysis was then used to estimate pooled effects. Age-stratified and cause-specific mortalities were modeled separately for each MSA. Most of the MSAs were associated with an increased risk in mortality ranging from 0.1% to 5.0% with a 1 °C decrease in temperature below the cold thresholds. Higher increased mortality risks were generally observed in MSAs with higher average daily mean temperatures and lower latitudes. Pooled effect estimate was 1.58% (95% Confidence Interval (CI) [0.81, 2.37]) increase in all-cause mortality risk with a 1 °C decrease in temperature. Cold wave effects in Texas were also examined, and several MSAs along the Texas Gulf Coast showed statistically significant cold wave-mortality associations. Effects of cold on all-cause mortality were highest among people over 75 years old (1.86%, 95% CI [1.09, 2.63]). Pooled estimates for cause-specific mortality were strongest in myocardial infarction (4.30%, 95% CI [1.18, 7.51]), followed by respiratory diseases (3.17%, 95% CI [0.26, 6.17]) and ischemic heart diseases (2.54%, 95% CI [1.08, 4.02]). In conclusion, cold weather generally increases mortality risk significantly in Texas, and the cold effects vary with MSAs, age groups, and cause-specific deaths. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Numerical Modeling of the Severe Cold Weather Event over Central Europe (January 2006

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Hari Prasad

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Cold waves commonly occur in higher latitudes under prevailing high pressure systems especially during winter season which cause serious economical loss and cold related death. Accurate prediction of such severe weather events is important for decision making by administrators and for mitigation planning. An Advanced high resolution Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale model is used to simulate a severe cold wave event occurred during January 2006 over Europe. The model is integrated for 31 days starting from 00UTC of 1 January 2006 with 30 km horizontal resolution. Comparison of the model derived area averaged daily mean temperatures at 2m height from different zones over the central Europe with observations indicates that the model is able to simulate the occurrence of the cold wave with the observed time lag of 1 to 3days but with lesser intensity. The temperature, winds, surface pressure and the geopential heights at 500 hPa reveal that the cold wave development associates with the southward progression of a high pressure system and cold air advection. The results have good agreement with the analysis fields indicates that the model has the ability to reproduce the time evolution of the cold wave event.

Spatially explicit modelling of extreme weather and climate events ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The reality of climate change continues to influence the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, floods, and landslides. The impacts of the cumulative interplay of these extreme weather and climate events variation continue to perturb governments causing a scramble into formation ...

Climate Variability and Weather Extremes: Model-Simulated and Historical Data. Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Schubert, Siegfried D.; Lim, Young-Kwon

2012-01-01

Extremes in weather and climate encompass a wide array of phenomena including tropical storms, mesoscale convective systems, snowstorms, floods, heat waves, and drought. Understanding how such extremes might change in the future requires an understanding of their past behavior including their connections to large-scale climate variability and trends. Previous studies suggest that the most robust findings concerning changes in short-term extremes are those that can be most directly (though not completely) tied to the increase in the global mean temperatures. These include the findings that (IPCC 2007): There has been a widespread reduction in the number of frost days in mid-latitude regions in recent decades, an increase in the number of warm extremes, particularly warm nights, and a reduction in the number of cold extremes, particularly cold nights. For North America in particular (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): There are fewer unusually cold days during the last few decades. The last 10 years have seen a lower number of severe cold waves than for any other 10-year period in the historical record that dates back to 1895. There has been a decrease in the number of frost days and a lengthening of the frost-free season, particularly in the western part of North America. Other aspects of extremes such as the changes in storminess have a less clear signature of long term change, with considerable interannual, and decadal variability that can obscure any climate change signal. Nevertheless, regarding extratropical storms (CCSP SAP 3.3, 2008): The balance of evidence suggests that there has been a northward shift in the tracks of strong low pressure systems (storms) in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific basins. For North America: Regional analyses suggest that there has been a decrease in snowstorms in the South and lower Midwest of the United States, and an increase in snowstorms in the upper Midwest and Northeast. Despite the progress already made, our understanding of the

Climatic and weather factors affecting fire occurrence and behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Randall P. Benson; John O. Roads; David R. Weise

2009-01-01

Weather and climate have a profound influence on wildland fire ignition potential, fire behavior, and fire severity. Local weather and climate are affected by large-scale patterns of winds over the hemispheres that predispose wildland fuels to fire. The characteristics of wildland fuels, especially the moisture content, ultimately determine fire behavior and the impact...

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

Science.gov (United States)

Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

2016-01-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Weather, Climate and Food Security

Science.gov (United States)

Beer, T.

2016-12-01

To climatologists food security is dominated by the impacts of weather and climate on food systems. But the link between the atmosphere and food security is more complex. Extreme weather events such as tropical cyclones impact directly on agriculture, but they also impact on the logistical distribution of food and can thus disrupt the food supply chain, especially in urban areas. Drought affects human life and health as well as impacting dramatically on the sustainable development of society. It represents a pending danger for vulnerable agricultural systems that depend on the rainfall, water supply and reservoirs. Developed countries are affected, but the impact is disproportionate within the developing world. Drought, especially when it results in famine, can change the life and economic development of developing nations and stifle their development for decades. A holistic approach is required to understand the phenomena, to forecast catastrophic events such as drought and famine and to predict their societal consequences. In the Food Security recommendations of the Rio+20 Forum on Science, Technology and Innovation for Sustainable Development it states that it is important "To understand fully how to measure, assess and reduce the impacts of production on the natural environment including climate change, recognizing that different measures of impact (e.g. water, land, biodiversity, carbon and other greenhouse gases, etc) may trade-off against each other..." This talk will review the historical link between weather, climate, drought and food supplies; examine the international situation; and summarise the response of the scientific community

Climate and weather impact timing of emergence of bats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Winifred F Frick

Full Text Available Interest in forecasting impacts of climate change have heightened attention in recent decades to how animals respond to variation in climate and weather patterns. One difficulty in determining animal response to climate variation is lack of long-term datasets that record animal behaviors over decadal scales. We used radar observations from the national NEXRAD network of Doppler weather radars to measure how group behavior in a colonially-roosting bat species responded to annual variation in climate and daily variation in weather over the past 11 years. Brazilian free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis form dense aggregations in cave roosts in Texas. These bats emerge from caves daily to forage at high altitudes, which makes them detectable with Doppler weather radars. Timing of emergence in bats is often viewed as an adaptive trade-off between emerging early and risking predation or increased competition and emerging late which restricts foraging opportunities. We used timing of emergence from five maternity colonies of Brazilian free-tailed bats in south-central Texas during the peak lactation period (15 June-15 July to determine whether emergence behavior was associated with summer drought conditions and daily temperatures. Bats emerged significantly earlier during years with extreme drought conditions than during moist years. Bats emerged later on days with high surface temperatures in both dry and moist years, but there was no relationship between surface temperatures and timing of emergence in summers with normal moisture levels. We conclude that emergence behavior is a flexible animal response to climate and weather conditions and may be a useful indicator for monitoring animal response to long-term shifts in climate.

Using Music to Communicate Weather and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, P.; Aplin, K. L.; Brown, S.

2017-12-01

Depictions of weather and other atmospheric phenomena are common throughout the arts. Unlike in the visual arts, however, there has been little study of meteorological inspiration in music. This presentation will discuss the frequencies with which different weather types have been depicted in music over time, covering the period from the seventeenth century to the present day. Beginning with classical orchestral music, we find that composers were generally influenced by their own country's climate in the type of weather they chose to represent. Depictions of weather vary from explicit mimicry using traditional and specialized orchestral instruments, through to subtle suggestions. Pieces depicting stormy weather tend to be in minor keys, whereas pieces depicting fair weather tend to be in major keys. As befits the national stereotype, British composers seem disproportionately keen to depict the UK's variable weather patterns and stormy coastline. Moving onto modern popular music, we have identified and analyzed over 750 songs referring to different weather types. We find that lyrical references to bad weather peaked in songs written during the stormy 1950s and 60s, when there were many hurricanes, before declining in the relatively calm 1970s and 80s. This finding again suggests a causal link between song-writers' meteorological environments and compositional outputs. Composers and song-writers have a unique ability to emotionally connect their listeners to the environment. This ability could be exploited to communicate environmental science to a broader audience. Our work provides a catalogue of cultural responses to weather before (and during the early stages of) climate change. The effects of global warming may influence musical expression in future, in which case our work will provide a baseline for comparison.

Weather on Steroids: The Art of Climate Change Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Boudrias, M. A.; Gershunov, A.; Sizonenko, T.; Wiese, A.; Fox, H.

2017-12-01

There have been many different kinds of efforts to improve climate change literacy of diverse audiences in the past several years. The challenge has been to balance science content with audience-specific messaging that engages them in both rational and affective ways. In the San Diego Region, Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other community leaders to develop a suite of programs and activities to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. CEP has partnered with the La Jolla Historical Society and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in a unique exhibition of art inspired by climate science, a project blending science and art to communicate the science of climate change in a new way and engage audiences more effectively. Weather on Steroids: the Art of Climate Change Science explores the question of consequences, challenges, and opportunities that arise from the changing climate on our planet. The exhibition merges the artistic and scientific to create a visual dialogue about the vexing problem of climate change, explores how weather variability affects the day-to-day life of local communities, and investigates Southern California vulnerability to climate change. Science serves as the inspiration for the creative responses from visual artists, who merge subjective images with empirical observation to reveal how climate variations upset the planet's balance with extreme weather impacts. Both the scientists and artists created didactic pages to explain their perspectives and each pair worked closely to incorporate the information into the creative piece so that the connection of each of 11 art installations to the science that inspired them is clear. By illuminating the reality of climate change, Weather on Steroids aspires to proactively stimulate public dialogue about one of the most important issues of our time.

Trends in Cold Extremes and Winter Weather for the SPTC Region

Science.gov (United States)

2017-05-31

Extreme weather poses multifaceted hazards to transportation. There is now increased awareness of the threats of climate variability and change on transportation safety and state of good repair. In particular, a non-stationary climate will potentiall...

Wind energy under cold climate conditions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maribo Pedersen, B.

1999-03-01

There is an increasing interest in wind energy production under different climatic conditions, among them cold climate and icing conditions. More and more wind turbines are being installed in cold climates and even adapted technology has been developed for that environment. Various national activities are going on in at least Finland, Canada, Italy, Sweden, etc. and international collaboration has been carried out within the European Union's Non-nuclear energy programme. Wind turbine operation is affected by both the cold temperatures and the formation of ice on the blades and the supporting structure. Cold temperatures can be handled by material selections known in other technical fields but to prevent icing, new techniques have to be - and have been - developed. Icing affects the reliability of anemometers, which concerns both turbine control and resource estimation, and changes the aerodynamics of the blades, which eventually stops the turbine. In addition, occasional icing events can locally affect public safety. The development of applied technology has entered some different paths and different solutions are tried out. As the applications are entering a commercial phase, these is a request to gather the experiences and monitor the reliability in a form that can be utilised by developers, manufactureres, consultants and other tenderers. The Topical Experts Meeting will focus on site classification, operational experiences, modelling and mesurements of ice induced loads and safety aspects. (EHS)

Weather and Climate Manipulation as an Optimal Control for Adaptive Dynamical Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergei A. Soldatenko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The weather and climate manipulation is examined as an optimal control problem for the earth climate system, which is considered as a complex adaptive dynamical system. Weather and climate manipulations are actually amorphous operations. Since their objectives are usually formulated vaguely, the expected results are fairly unpredictable and uncertain. However, weather and climate modification is a purposeful process and, therefore, we can formulate operations to manipulate weather and climate as the optimization problem within the framework of the optimal control theory. The complexity of the earth’s climate system is discussed and illustrated using the simplified low-order coupled chaotic dynamical system. The necessary conditions of optimality are derived for the large-scale atmospheric dynamics. This confirms that even a relatively simplified control problem for the atmospheric dynamics requires significant efforts to obtain the solution.

Weather uncertainty versus climate change uncertainty in a short television weather broadcast

Science.gov (United States)

Witte, J.; Ward, B.; Maibach, E.

2011-12-01

For TV meteorologists talking about uncertainty in a two-minute forecast can be a real challenge. It can quickly open the way to viewer confusion. TV meteorologists understand the uncertainties of short term weather models and have different methods to convey the degrees of confidence to the viewing public. Visual examples are seen in the 7-day forecasts and the hurricane track forecasts. But does the public really understand a 60 percent chance of rain or the hurricane cone? Communication of climate model uncertainty is even more daunting. The viewing public can quickly switch to denial of solid science. A short review of the latest national survey of TV meteorologists by George Mason University and lessons learned from a series of climate change workshops with TV broadcasters provide valuable insights into effectively using visualizations and invoking multimedia-learning theories in weather forecasts to improve public understanding of climate change.

Public perception of climate change in the cold regions of Russia: an example of Yakutia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. A. Anisimov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The rate of climate change in the Russian cold regions is nearly twice larger than the global‑mean rate. Besides climate risks, such changes lead to new possibilities, which require scientifically based regional adaptation strategies. Climate could be viewed as an inexhaustible public resource that creates opportuni‑ ties for sustainable development. Long‑term trends show that climate as a resource is becoming more read‑ ily available in the cold regions, notwithstanding the general perception that globally climate change is one of the challenges of the 21st century. Adaptation strategies are required for balancing the risks and potential benefits resulting from the changing climate. Success of such strategies depends on the public perception of climate change. This study compares the observational data on climate and environmental changes with the results of the public survey conducted in Yakutia in the period 2012–2017. The survey involved nearly 2000 respondents in several cities and 2 villages (Ust‑Maja, Saskhulakh representing different economical, socio‑ logical, permafrost, vegetation, and climatic conditions. Results indicated that public perception of the climatic and environmental changes is not univocal, and depends on many factors. Low probability extreme events, such as unusual weather patterns or abrupt land‑ scape changes may have greater effect than the long‑term climate trends. Currently less than half of the pop‑ ulation in Yakutia consider climate change as an established fact, and are ready to take actions in this regard. Meanwhile, Yakutia is a region where observational records demonstrate the most pronounced changes in climatic regime compared to other Russian regions. The contrast between the actual changes and public per‑ ception of such changes has important implication for developing adaptation strategies. To be effective, such strategies should combine knowledge coming from instrumental‑ and

A Severe Weather Laboratory Exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate Class Using Active Learning Techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Grundstein, Andrew; Durkee, Joshua; Frye, John; Andersen, Theresa; Lieberman, Jordan

2011-01-01

This paper describes a new severe weather laboratory exercise for an Introductory Weather and Climate class, appropriate for first and second year college students (including nonscience majors), that incorporates inquiry-based learning techniques. In the lab, students play the role of meteorologists making forecasts for severe weather. The…

Devils Lake Climate, Weather, and Water Decision Support System

Science.gov (United States)

Horsfall, F. M.; Kluck, D. R.; Brewer, M.; Timofeyeva, M. M.; Symonds, J.; Dummer, S.; Frazier, M.; Shulski, M.; Akyuz, A.

2010-12-01

North Dakota’s Devils Lake area represents an example of a community struggling with a serious climate-related problem. The Devils Lake water level elevation has been rising since 1993 due to a prolonged wet period, and it is now approaching the spill stage into the Cheyenne River and ultimately into the Red River of the North. The impacts of the rising water have already caused significant disruption to the surrounding communities, and even greater impacts will be seen if the lake reaches the spill elevation. These impacts include flooding, water quality issues, impacts to agriculture and ecosystems, and impacts to local and regional economies. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), through the National Weather Service (NWS), the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS), and the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), provides the U.S. public with climate, water, and weather services, including meteorological, hydrological and climate data, warnings, and forecasts of weather and climate from near- to longer-term timescales. In support of the people of Devils Lake, the surrounding communities, the people of North Dakota, and the other Federal agencies with responsibilities in the area, NOAA launched the first ever climate-sensitive decision support web site (www.devilslake.noaa.gov) in July 2010. The website is providing integrated weather, water, and climate information for the area, and has links to information from other agencies, such as USGS, to help decision makers as they address this ongoing challenge. This paper will describe the website and other ongoing activities by NOAA in support of this community.

Evaluation of the National Weather Service Extreme Cold Warning Experiment in North Dakota.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiu, Cindy H; Vagi, Sara J; Wolkin, Amy F; Martin, John Paul; Noe, Rebecca S

2014-01-01

Dangerously cold weather threatens life and property. During periods of extreme cold due to wind chill, the National Weather Service (NWS) issues wind chill warnings to prompt the public to take action to mitigate risks. Wind chill warnings are based on ambient temperatures and wind speeds. Since 2010, NWS has piloted a new extreme cold warning issued for cold temperatures in wind and nonwind conditions. The North Dakota Department of Health, NWS, and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention collaborated in conducting household surveys in Burleigh County, North Dakota, to evaluate this new warning. The objectives of the evaluation were to assess whether residents heard the new warning and to determine if protective behaviors were prompted by the warning. This was a cross-sectional survey design using the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology to select a statistically representative sample of households from Burleigh County. From 10 to 11 April 2012, 188 door-to-door household interviews were completed. The CASPER methodology uses probability sampling with weighted analysis to estimate the number and percentage of households with a specific response within Burleigh County. The majority of households reported having heard both the extreme cold and wind chill warnings, and both warnings prompted protective behaviors. These results suggest this community heard the new warning and took protective actions after hearing the warning.

The weather and Climate: emergent laws and multifractal cascades

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.

2016-12-01

In the atmosphere, nonlinear terms are typically about a trillion times larger than linear ones; we anticipate the emergence of high level turbulence laws. The classical turbulence laws were restricted to homogeneous and isotropic systems; to apply them to the atmosphere they must be generalized to account for strong anisotropy (especially stratification) and variability (intermittency). Over the last 30 years, using scaling symmetry principles and multifractal cascades, this has been done. While hitherto they were believed applicable only up to ≈ 100 m, (generalized) turbulence laws now anisotropic and multifractal, they cover spatial scales up planetary in extent and in time well beyond weather scales to include the climate. These higher level laws are stochastic in nature and provide the theoretical basis both for stochastic parametrizations as well as stochastic forecasting. In the time domain the emergent laws for fluctuations DT (for example in temperature T) have means T > ≈ DtH i.e. they are scaling (power laws) in the time interval Dt. We find find exponents H>0 (fluctuations increase with scale) up to ≈ Dt ≈10 days (the lifetime of planetary scale structures, the analogous transition in the ocean is at Dt ≈ 1 year on Mars it is Dt ≈ 2 sols). At larger Dt, there is a transition to a new "macroweather" regime with H≈30 years (anthropocene; larger in the pre-industrial epoch), new climate processes begin to dominate, leading to H>0. "The climate is what you expect, the weather is what you get": the climate is thought to be a kind of "average weather". However this "expected" behavior is macroweather, not the climate. On the contrary, the climate is the new even lower frequency regime at scales Dt> 30 yrs and it has statistical properties very similar to the weather. At these scales, "macroweather is what you expect, the climate is what you get". The scaling in the macroweather regime implies that there is a long-term memory. We show how the

Survey of Whole House Programs in Midwestern Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McGeough, U.; Baker, W.; Peters, J.; Beitel, A.

2012-11-01

Existing single family whole home energy efficiency programs in cold weather climates, focused on the Midwest, were analyzed in detail to understand program design, including requirements, processes, incentives and outcomes, focusing on savings and participation. The report presents information about specific programs, aggregated program trends and observations, and recommendations for future cold weather climate whole home program design and implementation. This study makes several recommendations to whole home program designers and implementers on improving the cost-effectiveness and reach of whole home programs.

Special Issue ;Sediment cascades in cold climate geosystems;

Science.gov (United States)

Morche, David; Krautblatter, Michael; Beylich, Achim A.

2017-06-01

This Editorial introduces the Special Issue on sediment cascades in cold climate geosystems that evolved from the eighth I.A.G./A.I.G. SEDIBUD (Sediment Budgets in Cold Environments; http://www.geomorph.org/sedibud-working-group/) workshop. The workshop was held from 1st to 4th September 2014 at the Environmental Research Station ;Schneefernerhaus; (http://www.schneefernerhaus.de/en/home.html) located at Mt. Zugspitze, the highest peak of Germany, (2962 m asl). Paper and poster presentations focused on observations, measurements and modeling of geomorphological processes in sediment cascades in cold climate geosystems. This resulting Special Issue brings together ten selected contributions from arctic and alpine environments.

Survey of Whole House Programs in Midwestern Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McGeough, U. [Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR), Des Plaines, IL (United States); Baker, W. [Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR), Des Plaines, IL (United States); Peters, J. [Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR), Des Plaines, IL (United States); Beitel, A. [Partnership for Advanced Residential Retrofit (PARR), Des Plaines, IL (United States)

2012-11-01

In this project, existing single-family whole home energy efficiency programs in cold weather climates, focused on the Midwest, were analyzed in detail to understand program design, including requirements, processes, incentives and outcomes, focusing on savings and participation. The report presents information about specific programs, aggregated program trends and observations, and recommendations for future cold weather climate whole home program design and implementation. This study makes several recommendations to whole home program designers and implementers on improving the cost effectiveness and reach of whole home programs.

CBR Operations in Cold Weather: A Bibliography. Volume 1

Science.gov (United States)

1989-11-01

JOHNSTON R C SWAMP OAK TEST DATA DOD/DROLS ; HANNEMANN M M D ANALYSIS. 514727L ;HALLANGER N L ;KROTH J R ;WESTLAKE WILFRED J ; HAMILTON WILLIAM M 1953...E 1963 HANNA ALFRED E; SIMULATED COLD WEATHER DOD/DROLS RADIOLOGICAL DECONTAMINATION 296248 OF RECOVERY EQUIPMENT. HANNEMANN M M D 1967 JOHNSTON R C...SWAMP OAK TEST DATA DOD/DROLS ; HANNEMANN M M D ANALYSIS. 514727L ;HALLANGER N L ;KROTH J R ;WESTLAKE WILFRED J : 37 HELLBERG E N 1961 TAYLOR D

Climate control: United States weather modification in the cold war and beyond.

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, Kristine C

2008-03-01

Rainmaking, hail busting, fog lifting, snowpack enhancing, lightning suppressing, hurricane snuffing...weather control. At the lunatic fringe of scientific discussion in the early twentieth century--and the subject of newspaper articles with tones ranging from skeptical titters to awestruck wonder--weather modification research became more serious after World War II. In the United States, the 'seeds' of silver iodide and dry ice purported to enhance rainfall and bust hailstorms soon became seeds of controversy from which sprouted attempts by federal, state and local government to control the controllers and exploit 'designer weather' for their own purposes.

Cold weather effects on Dresden Unit 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anagnostopoulos, H. [Commonwealth Edison Co., Morris, IL (United States)

1995-03-01

Dresden Unit 1 is in the final stages of a decommissioning effort directed at preparing the unit to enter a SAFSTOR status. Following an extended sub-zero cold wave, about 55,000 gallons of water were discovered in the lowest elevation of the spherical reactor enclosure. Cold weather had caused the freezing and breaking of several service water lines that had not been completely isolated. Two days later, at a regularly scheduled decommissioning meeting, the event was communicated to the decommissioning team, who quickly recognized the potential for freezing of a 42 inches diameter Fuel Transfer Tube that connects the sphere to the Spent Fuel Pool. The team directed that the pool gates between the adjacent Spent Fuel Pool and the Fuel Transfer Pool be installed, and a portable source of heat was installed on the Fuel Transfer Tube. It was later determined that, with the fuel pool gates removed, and with a worst case freeze break at the 502 elevation on the Fuel Transfer Tube (in the Sphere), the fuel in the Spent Fuel Pool could be uncovered to a level 3 below the top of active fuel.

Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

2016-03-31

A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

Supercomputing for weather and climate modelling: convenience or necessity

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Landman, WA

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Weather and climate modelling require dedicated computer infrastructure in order to generate high-resolution, large ensemble, various models with different configurations, etc. in order to optimise operational forecasts and climate projections. High...

Accelerating Climate and Weather Simulations through Hybrid Computing

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Shujia; Cruz, Carlos; Duffy, Daniel; Tucker, Robert; Purcell, Mark

2011-01-01

Unconventional multi- and many-core processors (e.g. IBM (R) Cell B.E.(TM) and NVIDIA (R) GPU) have emerged as effective accelerators in trial climate and weather simulations. Yet these climate and weather models typically run on parallel computers with conventional processors (e.g. Intel, AMD, and IBM) using Message Passing Interface. To address challenges involved in efficiently and easily connecting accelerators to parallel computers, we investigated using IBM's Dynamic Application Virtualization (TM) (IBM DAV) software in a prototype hybrid computing system with representative climate and weather model components. The hybrid system comprises two Intel blades and two IBM QS22 Cell B.E. blades, connected with both InfiniBand(R) (IB) and 1-Gigabit Ethernet. The system significantly accelerates a solar radiation model component by offloading compute-intensive calculations to the Cell blades. Systematic tests show that IBM DAV can seamlessly offload compute-intensive calculations from Intel blades to Cell B.E. blades in a scalable, load-balanced manner. However, noticeable communication overhead was observed, mainly due to IP over the IB protocol. Full utilization of IB Sockets Direct Protocol and the lower latency production version of IBM DAV will reduce this overhead.

Weatherization Beyond the Numbers: Case Studies of Fifteen High-performing Weatherization Agencies - Conducted May 2011 through July 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tonn, Bruce Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rose, Erin M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Hawkins, Beth A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2014-09-01

The report presents fifteen individual case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies. This research was one component of the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program. The agencies were chosen to represent a range of contexts and approaches to weatherization. For example, the set of agencies includes a mix of urban and rural agencies, those that mainly use in-house crews to weatherize homes versus those that use contractor crews, and a mix of locations, from very cold climates to moderate to hot humid and dry climates. The case studies were mainly based on site visits to the agencies that encompassed interviews with program directors, weatherization crews, and recipients of weatherization. This information was supplemented by secondary materials. The cases document the diversity of contexts and challenges faced by the agencies and how they operate on a day-by-day basis. The cases also high common themes found throughout the agencies, such as their focus on mission and respect for their clients.

Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Alizadeh-Choobari, Omid; Najafi, M. S.

2018-01-01

Observations unequivocally show that Iran has been rapidly warming over recent decades, which in sequence has triggered a wide range of climatic impacts. Meteorological records of several ground stations across Iran with daily temporal resolution for the period 1951-2013 were analyzed to investigate the climate change and its impact on some weather extremes. Iran has warmed by nearly 1.3 °C during the period 1951-2013 (+0.2 °C per decade), with an increase of the minimum temperature at a rate two times that of the maximum. Consequently, an increase in the frequency of heat extremes and a decrease in the frequency of cold extremes have been observed. The annual precipitation has decreased by 8 mm per decade, causing an expansion of Iran's dry zones. Previous studies have pointed out that warming is generally associated with more frequent heavy precipitation because a warmer air can hold more moisture. Nevertheless, warming in Iran has been associated with more frequent light precipitation, but less frequent moderate, heavy and extremely heavy precipitation. This is because in the subtropical dry zones, a longer time is required to recharge the atmosphere with water vapour in a warmer climate, causing more water vapour to be transported from the subtropics to high latitudes before precipitations forms. In addition, the altitude of the condensation level increases in a warmer climate in subtropical regions, causing an overall decrease of precipitation. We argue that changing in the frequency of heavy precipitation in response to warming varies depending on the geographical location. Warming over the dry subtropical regions is associated with a decrease in the frequency of heavy precipitation, while an increase is expected over both subpolar and tropical regions. The warmer climate has also led to the increase in the frequency of both thunderstorms (driven by convective heating) and dust events over Iran.

Chemical weathering as a mechanism for the climatic control of bedrock river incision

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Brendan P.; Johnson, Joel P. L.; Gasparini, Nicole M.; Sklar, Leonard S.

2016-04-01

Feedbacks between climate, erosion and tectonics influence the rates of chemical weathering reactions, which can consume atmospheric CO2 and modulate global climate. However, quantitative predictions for the coupling of these feedbacks are limited because the specific mechanisms by which climate controls erosion are poorly understood. Here we show that climate-dependent chemical weathering controls the erodibility of bedrock-floored rivers across a rainfall gradient on the Big Island of Hawai‘i. Field data demonstrate that the physical strength of bedrock in streambeds varies with the degree of chemical weathering, which increases systematically with local rainfall rate. We find that incorporating the quantified relationships between local rainfall and erodibility into a commonly used river incision model is necessary to predict the rates and patterns of downcutting of these rivers. In contrast to using only precipitation-dependent river discharge to explain the climatic control of bedrock river incision, the mechanism of chemical weathering can explain strong coupling between local climate and river incision.

Assessment of the Suitability of High Resolution Numerical Weather Model Outputs for Hydrological Modelling in Mountainous Cold Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Hayashi, M.; Fang, X.; Gutmann, E. D.; Li, Y.

2017-12-01

The hydrology of mountainous cold regions has a large spatial variability that is driven both by climate variability and near-surface process variability associated with complex terrain and patterns of vegetation, soils, and hydrogeology. There is a need to downscale large-scale atmospheric circulations towards the fine scales that cold regions hydrological processes operate at to assess their spatial variability in complex terrain and quantify uncertainties by comparison to field observations. In this research, three high resolution numerical weather prediction models, namely, the Intermediate Complexity Atmosphere Research (ICAR), Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF), and Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) models are used to represent spatial and temporal patterns of atmospheric conditions appropriate for hydrological modelling. An area covering high mountains and foothills of the Canadian Rockies was selected to assess and compare high resolution ICAR (1 km × 1 km), WRF (4 km × 4 km), and GEM (2.5 km × 2.5 km) model outputs with station-based meteorological measurements. ICAR with very low computational cost was run with different initial and boundary conditions and with finer spatial resolution, which allowed an assessment of modelling uncertainty and scaling that was difficult with WRF. Results show that ICAR, when compared with WRF and GEM, performs very well in precipitation and air temperature modelling in the Canadian Rockies, while all three models show a fair performance in simulating wind and humidity fields. Representation of local-scale atmospheric dynamics leading to realistic fields of temperature and precipitation by ICAR, WRF, and GEM makes these models suitable for high resolution cold regions hydrological predictions in complex terrain, which is a key factor in estimating water security in western Canada.

The CAMI Project - Weather and Climate Services for Caribbean Food Security

Science.gov (United States)

Trotman, Adrian; Van Meerbeeck, Cedric

2013-04-01

Food security is major focus of Caribbean governments, with production being of particular concern. For the past three decades, Caribbean agriculture has been declining in relative importance, both in terms of its contribution to GDP and its share of the labour force. One of the problems Caribbean agriculture faces is the destructive impacts from weather and climate extremes. These include flood, drought, extreme temperatures, and strong winds from tropical cyclones. Other potential disasters, such as from pests and diseases attacks, are also weather and climate driven. These make weather and climate information critically important to decision-making in agriculture in the Caribbean region. In an effort to help reduce weather and climate related risks to the food security sector, The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, along with its partners the Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and ten National Meteorological Services from within the Caribbean Community launched and implemented the Caribbean Agrometeorological Initiative (CAMI). From 2010 to 2013, CAMI set out to provide relevant information to farmers, and the industry in general, for decision and policy making. The project is funded by the European Union through the Science and Technology Programme of the African, Caribbean and Pacific Group of Countries' (ACP). The overarching objective of CAMI was to increase and sustain agricultural productivity at the farm level in the Caribbean region through improved applications of weather and climate information, using an integrated and coordinated approach. Currently, this is done through (i) provision of relevant climate information appropriately disseminated, (ii) predictions on seasonal rainfall and temperature, (iii) support for improved irrigation management, (iv) the development of strategically selected weather-driven pest and disease models, (v) use of crop simulation models

Games and Simulations for Climate, Weather and Earth Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, R. M.; Clark, S.

2015-12-01

We will demonstrate several interactive, computer-based simulations, games, and other interactive multimedia. These resources were developed for weather, climate, atmospheric science, and related Earth system science education. The materials were created by the UCAR Center for Science Education. These materials have been disseminated via our web site (SciEd.ucar.edu), webinars, online courses, teacher workshops, and large touchscreen displays in weather and Sun-Earth connections exhibits in NCAR's Mesa Lab facility in Boulder, Colorado. Our group has also assembled a web-based list of similar resources, especially simulations and games, from other sources that touch upon weather, climate, and atmospheric science topics. We'll briefly demonstrate this directory.

Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

2010-12-01

Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

Behavior of crushed rock aggregates used in road construction exposed to cold climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Kuznetsova, Elena; Pérez Fortes, Ana Patricia; Anastasio, Sara; Willy Danielsen, Svein

2016-04-01

Presently, about 90% of the aggregate production in Europe comes from naturally occurring resources: quarries and pits. Due to the increased demand for sand and gravel for construction purposes, not only in building but also in road construction, the last decade has seen a significant trend towards the use of more crushed rock aggregates. This resource has been more and more preferred to sand and gravel thanks to the significant technological development of its process and use phase. The performance of the aggregates is generally evaluated depending on three main factors: the geological origin (mineral composition, texture, structure, degree of weathering), the aggregate processing (crushing, sieving, washing, storing) and the user technology for a specific area of use (e.g. road construction, asphalt binders). Nevertheless climatic conditions should carefully be taken into account in application such as road construction. Large temperature gradients and high levels of humidity are known to significantly affect the performance of the material. Although the problem is, at least in the asphalt field, considered mostly from the binder point of view, this article aims to investigate the effect of aggregate properties on road performance in cold climatic conditions. Two different climatic areas will be taken into account: Norway and Spain. While both these countries are listed among the main European producers of aggregates, they represent significantly different climatic regions. While Norwegian weather is characterized by humid cold winters and relatively mild summers, Spain has temperate climate with cold regions in mountainous and internal areas. Both countries have been significantly affected by climate change with increasing temperature variations and instability. At the same time, similar winter maintenance measures, including the use of a considerable amount of solid and liquid chemicals to avoid ice formation (e.g. NaCl) and/or to provide better friction, are

Report of a Policy Forum: Weather, Climate, and Energy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2002-07-01

The report of a policy forum on Weather, Climate, and Energy presents findings and recommendations that, if implemented, could position the energy sector, the providers of weather and climate science and services, and energy consumers to mange more cooperatively and effectively the production, distribution, and consumption of electrical power and fossil fuels. Recent U.S. experience with a series of energy shortages encouraged the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program to join with the University of Oklahoma in the development of a forum to address the issues connected with responding to those shortages. Nearly 100 representatives from the public, private, and academic portions of the energy production sector, the meteorological community, political and corporate leaders, weather risk management analysts, and policy makers met on October 16-17, 2001 to discuss these policy issues.

The CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT): Where Climate Simulation Meets Weather Prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Phillips, T J; Potter, G L; Williamson, D L; Cederwall, R T; Boyle, J S; Fiorino, M; Hnilo, J J; Olson, J G; Xie, S; Yio, J J

2003-11-21

To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands, in particular, that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provied that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on how these schemes might be improved, and modified parameterizations then can be similarly tested. In order to further this method for evaluating and analyzing parameterizations in climate GCMs, the USDOE is funding a joint venture of its Climate Change Prediction Program (CCPP) and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: the CCPP-ARM Parameterization Testbed (CAPT). This article elaborates the scientific rationale for CAPT, discusses technical aspects of its methodology, and presents examples of its implementation in a representative climate GCM. Numerical weather prediction methods show promise for improving parameterizations in climate GCMs.

Mountain Weather and Climate, Third Edition

Science.gov (United States)

Hastenrath, Stefan

2009-05-01

For colleagues with diverse interests in the atmosphere, glaciers, radiation, landforms, water resources, vegetation, human implications, and more, Mountain Weather and Climate can be a valuable source of guidance and literature references. The book is organized into seven chapters: 1, Mountains and their climatological study; 2,Geographical controls of mountain meteorological elements; 3, Circulation systems related to orography; 4, Climatic characteristics of mountains; 5, Regional case studies; 6, Mountain bioclimatology; and 7, Changes in mountain climates. These chapters are supported by l78 diagrams and photographs, 47 tables, and some 2000 literature references. The volume has an appendix of units and energy conversion factors and a subject index, but it lacks an author index.

Effective Climate Refugia for Cold-water Fishes

Science.gov (United States)

Ebersole, J. L.; Morelli, T. L.; Torgersen, C.; Isaak, D.; Keenan, D.; Labiosa, R.; Fullerton, A.; Massie, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in mid-latitude salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest to severe, depending on modeling approaches, assumptions, and spatial context of analyses. Given these projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer cold-water fish populations and their habitats against climate change is emerging. Using terms such as "climate-proofing", "climate-ready", and "climate refugia", such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, such approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes in water temperature and streamflow, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on projected streamflows, air temperatures, and associated water temperature changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local hydrological responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies throughout the Pacific Northwest, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of salmonids and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. Key uncertainties include biotic interactions, organismal adaptive capacity, local climate decoupling due to groundwater-surface water interactions, the influence of human engineering responses, and synergies between climatic and other stressors. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted

Climate change and extreme events in weather

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

RameshKumar, M.R.

reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

Extreme weather-related health needs of people who are homeless.

Science.gov (United States)

Cusack, Lynette; van Loon, Antonia; Kralik, Debbie; Arbon, Paul; Gilbert, Sandy

2013-01-01

To identify the extreme weather-related health needs of homeless people and the response by homeless service providers in Adelaide, South Australia, a five-phased qualitative interpretive study was undertaken. (1) Literature review, followed by semi-structured interviews with 25 homeless people to ascertain health needs during extreme weather events. (2) Identification of homeless services. (3) Semi-structured interviews with 16 homeless service providers regarding their response to the health needs of homeless people at times of extreme weather. (4) Gap analysis. (5) Suggestions for policy and planning. People experiencing homelessness describe adverse health impacts more from extreme cold, than extreme hot weather. They considered their health suffered more, because of wet bedding, clothes and shoes. They felt more depressed and less able to keep themselves well during cold, wet winters. However, homeless service providers were more focussed on planning for extra service responses during times of extreme heat rather than extreme cold. Even though a city may be considered to have a temperate climate with a history of very hot summers, primary homeless populations have health needs during winter months. The experiences and needs of homeless people should be considered in extreme weather policy and when planning responses.

Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James E. Overland

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Recent Arctic changes are likely due to coupled Arctic amplification mechanisms with increased linkage between Arctic climate and sub-Arctic weather. Historically, sea ice grew rapidly in autumn, a strong negative radiative feedback. But increased sea-ice mobility, loss of multi-year sea ice, enhanced heat storage in newly sea ice-free ocean areas, and modified wind fields form connected positive feedback processes. One-way shifts in the Arctic system are sensitive to the combination of episodic intrinsic atmospheric and ocean variability and persistent increasing greenhouse gases. Winter 2009/10 and December 2010 showed a unique connectivity between the Arctic and more southern weather patterns when the typical polar vortex was replaced by high geopotential heights over the central Arctic and low heights over mid-latitudes that resulted in record snow and low temperatures, a warm Arctic—cold continents pattern. The negative value of the winter (DJF 2009/10 North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO index associated with enhanced meridional winds was the lowest observed value since the beginning of the record in 1865. Wind patterns in December 2007 and 2008 also show an impact of warmer Arctic temperatures. A tendency for higher geopotential heights over the Arctic and enhanced meridional winds are physically consistent with continued loss of sea ice over the next 40 years. A major challenge is to understand the interaction of Arctic changes with climate patterns such as the NAO, Pacific North American and El Niño–Southern Oscillation.

Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

Science.gov (United States)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

2012-12-01

There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semiarid climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Schoonejans, Jérôme; Vanacker, Veerle; Opfergelt, Sophie; Ameijeiras-Mariño, Yolanda; Christl, Marcus

2016-02-01

Biogeochemical cycling within the Critical Zone depends on the interactions between minerals and fluids controlling chemical weathering and physical erosion rates. In this study, we explore the role of water availability in controlling soil chemical weathering in semiarid climatic conditions. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We combine a geochemical mass balance with 10Be cosmogenic nuclides to constrain chemical weathering intensities and long-term denudation rates. As such, this study presents new data on chemical weathering and 10Be-derived denudation for understudied semiarid climate systems. In the Betic Cordillera, chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (~5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Chemical mass losses are inversely related to denudation rates (14-109 mm/kyr) and positively to soil thickness (14-58 cm); these results are consistent with kinetic limitation of chemical weathering rates. A worldwide compilation of chemical weathering data suggests that soil water balance may regulate the coupling between chemical weathering and physical erosion by modulating soil solute fluxes. Therefore, future landscape evolution models that seek to link chemical weathering and physical erosion should include soil water flux as an essential driver of weathering.

Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P

2013-09-01

Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.

Study on cold weather concreting using low-heat cement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hama, Yukio; Ryu Koto; Tomosawa, Fuminori

2004-01-01

In this paper, properties of frost damage at early age and strength development and thermal crack were studied, for purposes of application to the mass concrete of low-heat cement in cold weather, by means of concrete experiments and temperature analysis by finite element method. The experiments and the analysis result showed that the strength for resistance to frost damage at early age was 5N/mm 2 , the concrete strength correction value in terms of curing temperature was calculated approximately, and was effective in the resistance of thermal crack. And then, the application ranges of construction procedures were investigated. (author)

Developing a robust methodology for assessing the value of weather/climate services

Science.gov (United States)

Krijnen, Justin; Golding, Nicola; Buontempo, Carlo

2016-04-01

Increasingly, scientists involved in providing weather and climate services are expected to demonstrate the value of their work for end users in order to justify the costs of developing and delivering these services. This talk will outline different approaches that can be used to assess the socio-economic benefits of weather and climate services, including, among others, willingness to pay and avoided costs. The advantages and limitations of these methods will be discussed and relevant case-studies will be used to illustrate each approach. The choice of valuation method may be influenced by different factors, such as resource and time constraints and the end purposes of the study. In addition, there are important methodological differences which will affect the value assessed. For instance the ultimate value of a weather/climate forecast to a decision-maker will not only depend on forecast accuracy but also on other factors, such as how the forecast is communicated to and consequently interpreted by the end-user. Thus, excluding these additional factors may result in inaccurate socio-economic value estimates. In order to reduce the inaccuracies in this valuation process we propose an approach that assesses how the initial weather/climate forecast information can be incorporated within the value chain of a given sector, taking into account value gains and losses at each stage of the delivery process. By this we aim to more accurately depict the socio-economic benefits of a weather/climate forecast to decision-makers.

Solar shading control strategy for office buildings in cold climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Røseth Karlsen, Line; Heiselberg, Per Kvols; Bryn, Ida

2016-01-01

Highlights •Solar shading control strategy for office buildings in cold climate is developed. •Satisfying energy and indoor environmental performance is confirmed. •Importance of integrated evaluations when selecting shading strategy is illustrated.......Highlights •Solar shading control strategy for office buildings in cold climate is developed. •Satisfying energy and indoor environmental performance is confirmed. •Importance of integrated evaluations when selecting shading strategy is illustrated....

Thermodynamic Study on the Effects of Minor Constituents on Cold Weather Performance of Biodiesel

Science.gov (United States)

Biodiesel is an alternative diesel fuel made from vegetable oils, animal fats and other lipid feedstocks. Fuel properties and performance of biodiesel during cold weather are influenced by factors related to its feedstock, namely fatty acid composition and trace concentrations of monoacylglycerols,...

Controls on carbon storage and weathering in volcanic ash soils across a climate gradient on Mauna Kea, Hawaii

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, M. G.; Chadwick, O.

2017-12-01

Volcanic ash soils retain the largest and most persistent soil carbon pools of any ecosystem. However, the mechanisms governing soil carbon accumulation and weathering during initial phases of weathering are not well understood. We examined soil organic matter dynamics and weathering across a high altitude (3563 - 3013 m) 20 ky climate gradient on Mauna Kea in Hawaii. Four elevation sites were selected ( 250-500 mm rainfall) which range from arid-periglacial to sites which contain a mix of shrubs and grasses. At each site, between 2-3 pits were dug and major diagnostic horizons down to bedrock (in-tact lava) were sampled. Soils were analyzed for particle size, organic C and N, soil pH, exchangeable cations, base saturation, NaF pH, phosphorous sorption and bulk elements. Mass loss and pedogenic metal accumulation (hydroxlamine Fe, Al and Si extractions) were used to measure extent of weathering, leaching, changes in soil mineralogy and carbon accumulation with the short-range-ordered (SRO) minerals. Reactive-phase (SRO) minerals show a general trend of increasing abundance through the soil depth profile with increasing rainfall. However carbon accumulation patterns across the climate gradient are largely decoupled from these trends. The results suggest that after 20ky, pedogenic processes have altered the nature and composition of the volcanic ash such that it is capable of retaining soil C even where organic acid influences from plant material and leaching from rainfall is severely limited. Comparisons with lower elevation soils on Mauna Kea and other moist mesic (2500mm rainfall) sites on Hawaii suggest that these soils have reached only between 1-15 % of their capacity to retain carbon. Our results suggest that in low rainfall and a cold climate, after 20ky, weathering has advanced but is decoupled from soil carbon accumulation patterns and the associated influence of vegetation on soil development. Changes in soil carbon composition and amount across the entire

Effects of Climate on Co-evolution of Weathering Profiles and Hillscapes

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, R. S.; Rajaram, H.; Anderson, S. P.

2017-12-01

Considerable debate revolves around the relative importance of rock type, tectonics, and climate in creating the architecture of the critical zone. It has recently been proposed that differences in the depths and patterns of weathering between landscapes in Colorado's Front Range and South Carolina's piedmont can be attributed to the state of stress in the rock imposed by the magnitude and orientation the regional stresses with respect to the ridgelines (St. Claire et al., 2016). We argue for the importance of the climate, and in particular, in temperate regions, the amount of recharge. We employ numerical models of hillslope evolution between bounding erosional channels, in which the degree of rock weathering governs the rate of transformation of rock to soil. As the water table drapes between the stream channels, fresh rock is brought into the weathering zone at a rate governed by the rate of incision of the channels. We track the chemical weathering of rock, represented by alteration of feldspar to clays, which in turn requires calculation of the concentration of reactive species in the water along hydrologic flow paths. We present results from analytic solutions to the flow field in which travel times can be efficiently assessed. Below the water table, flow paths are hyperbolic, taking on considerable lateral components as they veer toward the bounding channels that serve as drains to the hillslope. We find that if water is far from equilibrium with respect to weatherable minerals at the water table, as occurs in wet, slowly-eroding landscapes, deep weathering can occur well below the water table to levels approximating the base of the bounding channels. In dry climates, on the other hand, the weathering zone is limited to a shallow surface - parallel layer. These models capture the essence of the observed differences in depth to fresh rock in both wet and dry climates without appeal to the state of stress in the rock.

Local health and social care responses to implementing the national cold weather plan.

Science.gov (United States)

Heffernan, C; Jones, L; Ritchie, B; Erens, B; Chalabi, Zaid; Mays, N

2017-09-18

The Cold Weather Plan (CWP) for England was launched by the Department of Health in 2011 to prevent avoidable harm to health by cold weather by enabling individuals to prepare and respond appropriately. This study sought the views of local decision makers involved in the implementation of the CWP in the winter of 2012/13 to establish the effects of the CWP on local planning. It was part of a multi-component independent evaluation of the CWP. Ten LA areas were purposively sampled which varied in level of deprivation and urbanism. Fifty-two semi-structured interviews were held with health and social care managers involved in local planning between November 2012 and May 2013. Thematic analysis revealed that the CWP was considered a useful framework to formalize working arrangements between agencies though local leadership varied across localities. There were difficulties in engaging general practitioners, differences in defining vulnerable individuals and a lack of performance monitoring mechanisms. The CWP was welcomed by local health and social care managers, and improved proactive winter preparedness. Areas for improvement include better integration with general practice, and targeting resources at socially isolated individuals in cold homes with specific interventions aimed at reducing social isolation and building community resilience. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

The origins of computer weather prediction and climate modeling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lynch, Peter

2008-01-01

Numerical simulation of an ever-increasing range of geophysical phenomena is adding enormously to our understanding of complex processes in the Earth system. The consequences for mankind of ongoing climate change will be far-reaching. Earth System Models are capable of replicating climate regimes of past millennia and are the best means we have of predicting the future of our climate. The basic ideas of numerical forecasting and climate modeling were developed about a century ago, long before the first electronic computer was constructed. There were several major practical obstacles to be overcome before numerical prediction could be put into practice. A fuller understanding of atmospheric dynamics allowed the development of simplified systems of equations; regular radiosonde observations of the free atmosphere and, later, satellite data, provided the initial conditions; stable finite difference schemes were developed; and powerful electronic computers provided a practical means of carrying out the prodigious calculations required to predict the changes in the weather. Progress in weather forecasting and in climate modeling over the past 50 years has been dramatic. In this presentation, we will trace the history of computer forecasting through the ENIAC integrations to the present day. The useful range of deterministic prediction is increasing by about one day each decade, and our understanding of climate change is growing rapidly as Earth System Models of ever-increasing sophistication are developed

Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

Science.gov (United States)

Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

2015-04-01

The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater

Singular vectors, predictability and ensemble forecasting for weather and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Palmer, T N; Zanna, Laure

2013-01-01

The local instabilities of a nonlinear dynamical system can be characterized by the leading singular vectors of its linearized operator. The leading singular vectors are perturbations with the greatest linear growth and are therefore key in assessing the system’s predictability. In this paper, the analysis of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate and ensemble forecasting is discussed. An overview of the role of singular vectors in informing about the error growth rate in numerical models of the atmosphere is given. This is followed by their use in the initialization of ensemble weather forecasts. Singular vectors for the ocean and coupled ocean–atmosphere system in order to understand the predictability of climate phenomena such as ENSO and meridional overturning circulation are reviewed and their potential use to initialize seasonal and decadal forecasts is considered. As stochastic parameterizations are being implemented, some speculations are made about the future of singular vectors for the predictability of weather and climate for theoretical applications and at the operational level. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Lyapunov analysis: from dynamical systems theory to applications’. (review)

'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B

Kinetically limited weathering at low denudation rates in semi-arid climates

Science.gov (United States)

Vanacker, V.; Schoonejans, J.; Opfergelt, S.; Ameijeiras-Marino, Y.; Christl, M.

2016-12-01

On Earth, the Critical Zone supports terrestrial life, being the near-surface environment where interactions between the atmosphere, lithosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere take place Quantitative understanding of the interaction between mechanical rock breakdown, chemical weathering, and physical erosion is essential for unraveling Earth's biogeochemical cycles. In this study, we explore the role of soil water balance on regulating soil chemical weathering under water deficit regimes. Weathering rates and intensities were evaluated for nine soil profiles located on convex ridge crests of three mountain ranges in the Spanish Betic Cordillera. We present and compare quantitative information on soil weathering, chemical depletion and total denudation that were derived based on geochemical mass balance, 10Be cosmogenic nuclides and U-series disequilibria. Soil production rates determined based on U-series isotopes (238U, 234U, 230Th and 226Ra) are of the same order of magnitude as 10Be-derived denudation rates, suggesting steady state soil thickness, in two out of three sampling sites. The chemical weathering intensities are relatively low (˜5 to 30% of the total denudation of the soil) and negatively correlated with the magnitude of the water deficit in soils. Soil weathering extents increase (nonlinearly) with soil thickness and decrease with increasing surface denudation rates, consistent with kinetically limited or controlled weathering. Our study suggests that soil residence time and water availability limit weathering processes in semi-arid climates, which has not been validated previously with field data. An important implication of this finding is that climatic regimes may strongly regulate soil weathering by modulating soil solute fluxes.

Cultural adaptations to the differential threats posed by hot versus cold climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Damian R

2013-10-01

Hot and cold climates have posed differential threats to human survival throughout history. Cold temperatures can pose direct threats to survival in themselves, whereas hot temperatures may pose threats indirectly through higher prevalence of infectious disease. These differential threats yield convergent predictions for the relationship between more demanding climates and freedom of expression, but divergent predictions for freedom from discrimination.

Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Changnon, S A [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (USA)

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

Inadvertent weather modification urban areas - lessons for global climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Changnon, S.A.

1992-01-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the USA's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multidisciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioural implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally

Weather regimes in past climate atmospheric general circulation model simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kageyama, M.; Ramstein, G. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. des Sci. du Climat et de l' Environnement; D' Andrea, F.; Vautard, R. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique, Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris (France); Valdes, P.J. [Department of Meteorology, University of Reading (United Kingdom)

1999-10-01

We investigate the climates of the present-day, inception of the last glaciation (115000 y ago) and last glacial maximum (21000 y ago) in the extratropical north Atlantic and Europe, as simulated by the laboratoire de Meteorologie dynamique atmospheric general circulation model. We use these simulations to investigate the low-frequency variability of the model in different climates. The aim is to evaluate whether changes in the intraseasonal variability, which we characterize using weather regimes, can help describe the impact of different boundary conditions on climate and give a better understanding of climate change processes. Weather regimes are defined as the most recurrent patterns in the 500 hPa geopotential height, using a clustering algorithm method. The regimes found in the climate simulations of the present-day and inception of the last glaciation are similar in their number and their structure. It is the regimes' populations which are found to be different for these climates, with an increase of the model's blocked regime and a decrease in the zonal regime at the inception of the last glaciation. This description reinforces the conclusions from a study of the differences between the climatological averages of the different runs and confirms the northeastward shift to the tail of the Atlantic storm-track, which would favour more precipitation over the site of growth of the Fennoscandian ice-sheet. On the other hand, the last glacial maximum results over this sector are not found to be classifiable, showing that the change in boundary conditions can be responsible for severe changes in the weather regime and low-frequency dynamics. The LGM Atlantic low-frequency variability appears to be dominated by a large-scale retrogressing wave with a period 40 to 50 days. (orig.)

Providing the Larger Climate Context During Extreme Weather - Lessons from Local Television News

Science.gov (United States)

Woods, M.; Cullen, H. M.

2015-12-01

Local television weathercasters, in their role as Station Scientists, are often called upon to educate viewers about the science and impacts of climate change. Climate Central supports these efforts through its Climate Matters program. Launched in 2010 with support from the National Science Foundation, the program has grown into a network that includes more than 245 weathercasters from across the country and provides localized information on climate and ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses in both English and Spanish. This presentation will focus on discussing best practices for integrating climate science into the local weather forecast as well as advances in the science of extreme event attribution. The Chief Meteorologist at News10 (Sacramento, CA) will discuss local news coverage of the ongoing California drought, extreme weather and climate literacy.

Basic causes of amplitude modulation in climatic/weather parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1987-11-01

The continuous interaction between the Earth's spinning motion and energy from the Sun gives rise to some (heat) energy oscillations in the Earth-atmosphere system (Njau, 1985a; 1985b; 1986a; 1986b). Recent results of large scale analysis of East African climatic records have proved that these oscillations significantly link the Sun to climatic/weather variations by systematically modulating key climatic/weather parameters like rainfall and air temperature (Njau, 1987a; 1987b; 1987c; 1987e; 1987f). In this paper, we re-develop the latter proof using a very different approach based upon theoretical analysis. The analysis has confirmed a general law suggested earlier (Njau, 1987d), that, with an exception of the diurnal cycle, any permanent cycle in the net solar energy incident upon a given part of the Earth-Atmosphere system gives rise to a quasi-permanent cycle whose period is approximately twice that of the former. Quasi-biennial as well as double sunspot cycles are shown to be a possible result of this general law. (author). 35 refs, 1 fig., 2 tabs

Cold Stress

Science.gov (United States)

... Publications and Products Programs Contact NIOSH NIOSH COLD STRESS Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Workers who ... cold environments may be at risk of cold stress. Extreme cold weather is a dangerous situation that ...

Role of Acclimatization in Weather-Related Human Mortality During the Transition Seasons of Autumn and Spring in a Thermally Extreme Mid-Latitude Continental Climate

Science.gov (United States)

de Freitas, Christopher R.; Grigorieva, Elena A.

2015-01-01

Human mortality is closely related to natural climate-determined levels of thermal environmental stress and the resulting thermophysiological strain. Most climate-mortality research has focused on seasonal extremes during winter and summer when mortality is the highest, while relatively little attention has been paid to mortality during the transitional seasons of autumn and spring. The body acclimatizes to heat in the summer and cold in winter and readjusts through acclimatization during the transitions between the two during which time the body experiences the thermophysiological strain of readjustment. To better understand the influences of weather on mortality through the acclimatization process, the aim here is to examine the periods that link very cold and very warms seasons. The study uses the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI), which is a comparative measure of short-term thermophysiological impact on the body. ATSI centers on heat exchange with the body’s core via the respiratory system, which cannot be protected. The analysis is based on data for a major city in the climatic region of the Russian Far East characterized by very hot summers and extremely cold winters. The results show that although mortality peaks in winter (January) and is at its lowest in summer (August), there is not a smooth rise through autumn nor a smooth decline through spring. A secondary peak occurs in autumn (October) with a smaller jump in May. This suggests the acclimatization from warm-to-cold produces more thermophysiological strain than the transition from cold-to-warm. The study shows that ATSI is a useful metric for quantifying the extent to which biophysical adaptation plays a role in increased strain on the body during re-acclimatization and for this reason is a more appropriate climatic indictor than air temperature alone. The work gives useful bioclimatic information on risks involved in transitional seasons in regions characterized by climatic extremes. This

Mechanical weathering and rock erosion by climate-dependent subcritical cracking

Science.gov (United States)

Eppes, Martha-Cary; Keanini, Russell

2017-06-01

This work constructs a fracture mechanics framework for conceptualizing mechanical rock breakdown and consequent regolith production and erosion on the surface of Earth and other terrestrial bodies. Here our analysis of fracture mechanics literature explicitly establishes for the first time that all mechanical weathering in most rock types likely progresses by climate-dependent subcritical cracking under virtually all Earth surface and near-surface environmental conditions. We substantiate and quantify this finding through development of physically based subcritical cracking and rock erosion models founded in well-vetted fracture mechanics and mechanical weathering, theory, and observation. The models show that subcritical cracking can culminate in significant rock fracture and erosion under commonly experienced environmental stress magnitudes that are significantly lower than rock critical strength. Our calculations also indicate that climate strongly influences subcritical cracking—and thus rock weathering rates—irrespective of the source of the stress (e.g., freezing, thermal cycling, and unloading). The climate dependence of subcritical cracking rates is due to the chemophysical processes acting to break bonds at crack tips experiencing these low stresses. We find that for any stress or combination of stresses lower than a rock's critical strength, linear increases in humidity lead to exponential acceleration of subcritical cracking and associated rock erosion. Our modeling also shows that these rates are sensitive to numerous other environment, rock, and mineral properties that are currently not well characterized. We propose that confining pressure from overlying soil or rock may serve to suppress subcritical cracking in near-surface environments. These results are applicable to all weathering processes.

The impact of cold spells on mortality and effect modification by cold spell characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Lijun; Liu, Tao; Hu, Mengjue; Zeng, Weilin; Zhang, Yonghui; Rutherford, Shannon; Lin, Hualiang; Xiao, Jianpeng; Yin, Peng; Liu, Jiangmei; Chu, Cordia; Tong, Shilu; Ma, Wenjun; Zhou, Maigeng

2016-12-01

In China, the health impact of cold weather has received little attention, which limits our understanding of the health impacts of climate change. We collected daily mortality and meteorological data in 66 communities across China from 2006 to 2011. Within each community, we estimated the effect of cold spell exposure on mortality using a Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model (DLNM). We also examined the modification effect of cold spell characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing) and individual-specific factors (causes of death, age, gender and education). Meta-analysis method was finally used to estimate the overall effects. The overall cumulative excess risk (CER) of non-accidental mortality during cold spell days was 28.2% (95% CI: 21.4%, 35.3%) compared with non-cold spell days. There was a significant increase in mortality when the cold spell duration and intensity increased or occurred earlier in the season. Cold spell effects and effect modification by cold spell characteristics were more pronounced in south China. The elderly, people with low education level and those with respiratory diseases were generally more vulnerable to cold spells. Cold spells statistically significantly increase mortality risk in China, with greater effects in southern China. This effect is modified by cold spell characteristics and individual-level factors.

Case report of cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis after chemoradiotherapy with cisplatin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kindts, Isabelle; Stellamans, Karin; Planckaert, Nikie; Goethals, Laurence; Bonny, Michiel

2014-01-01

The radiation recall reaction (RRR) is an inflammatory reaction that occurs in previously irradiated areas. The phenomenon is probably due to an idiosyncratic hypersensitivity reaction, in which a second agent can recall the inflammatory reaction. This case report documents a cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis (RRD). We observed a severe RRD in a patient after chemoradiotherapy treatment with cisplatin for a nasopharyngeal carcinoma, precipitated by cold temperatures, which developed 9 days after completion of therapy. In the medical literature, RRD following extreme cold temperatures seems to be a peculiar event. Until further information on the interaction is available, future studies on combined chemotherapy with cisplatin should be carefully monitored and any side effects clearly documented. This case suggests that environmental conditions may play a contributing role in the development of RRD. This case also implies that neither fraction size nor total radiation dose is a determining factor in the development of the dermatologic reaction. (orig.) [de

Best Practices in Weathering Climate Risks: Advancing Corporate and Community Resilience

Science.gov (United States)

Klima, K.; Winkelman, S.

2012-12-01

As the annual costs of severe weather events in the US grow into the billions of dollars, companies and communities are examining how best to plan ahead to protect their assets and bolster their bottom line. The Center for Clean Air Policy's Weathering Climate Risks program aims to help cities and companies enhance resilience to the economic impacts of severe weather and a changing climate. This presentation will highlight three communication techniques aimed at different types of audiences such as businesses, policymakers, the media, and society. First, we find that although planning for natural hazards now saves money later, stakeholders must fi¬nd their own self-interest if they are going to engage in a solution. Thus we research best practices and hold informational, off-the-record interviews to better understand the different stakeholders' perspectives, key concerns, and issues surrounding adaptation, resilience, and/or hazard mitigation. Diverse stakeholders find it attractive when a solution has multiple co-benefits such as climate resilience, greenhouse gas reduction, reduced costs, and social benefits. Second, we use off-the-record dialogues emphasizing candid public-private discussion to promote collaborative problem solving. Our high-level workshops typically consist of 30-40 scientists, companies, communities, and policymakers. We begin with presenting background material, such as geographic information systems (GIS) maps. Then we move to informal conservation. Topics include ideas such as "Ask the Climate Question": How will infrastructure, land development, and investment decisions affect GHG emissions and resilience to climate change impacts? We find these dialogues help stakeholders share their perspectives and advance public-private collaboration on climate resilience to protect critical urban infrastructure, ensure business continuity, and increase extreme weather resilience. Third, we find that communication to the general public must capture

Assessing the impact of climatic change in cold regions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parry, M L; Carter, T R [eds.

1984-01-01

The report describes the use of models to predict the consequences of global warming in particular (cold) regions. The workshop focused on two related issues: (a) the current sensitivity of ecosystems and farming systems to climatic variability, and (b) the range of impacts likely for certain changes of climate. This report addresses four broad themes: (1) the nature of the research problem; (2) methods of evaluating sensitivity to climatic variability; (3) methods of measuring the impact of climate change; and (4) how these methods might be refined. (ACR)

Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: A case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness

Science.gov (United States)

Bansal, Sheel; Harrington, Constance A; St. Clair, John Bradley

2016-01-01

Summary: 1. Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations. 2. We assessed the capacity of coastal Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii var. menziesii), an ecologically and economically important species in the northwestern USA, to tolerate both drought and cold stress on 35 populations grown in common gardens. We used principal components analysis to combine drought and cold hardiness trait data into generalized stress hardiness traits to model geographic variation in hardiness as a function of climate across the Douglas-fir range. 3. Drought and cold hardiness converged among populations along winter temperature gradients and diverged along summer precipitation gradients. Populations originating in regions with cold winters had relatively high tolerance to both drought and cold stress, which is likely due to overlapping adaptations for coping with winter desiccation. Populations from regions with dry summers had increased drought hardiness but reduced cold hardiness, suggesting a trade-off in tolerance mechanisms. 4. Our findings highlight the necessity to look beyond bivariate trait–climate relationships and instead consider multiple traits and climate variables to effectively model and manage for the impacts of climate change on widespread species.

Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

Bioremediation: is it the solution to reclamation of heavy oil contaminated soils in the Canadian climate?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, R.; Nicholson, P.; Varga, M.; Boadi, D.; Yang, A.

1997-01-01

The issue of bioremediation of heavy oil contaminated soils in cold climates was discussed. No model of the bioremediation system for cold climates exists. Environmental groups use three environmental concepts as the basis to evaluate petroleum activities: (1) cradle to grave responsibility, (2) the precautionary principle, and (3) sustainable development. The reclamation of an abandoned petroleum production facility must meet stringent standards. Most sites are contaminated with weathered hydrocarbons, brine and other chemicals that have been used at the location. Bioremediation, either in-situ or ex-situ, is one of the lowest cost remediation techniques available and has been used extensively by the downstream petroleum industry in warm climates. However, there are many unresolved issues with the use of bioremediation in cold climates, for heavy or weathered crude oil products and in areas of clay or other low permeability. Some of these unresolved issues are highlighted

Using Virtualization to Integrate Weather, Climate, and Coastal Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, J. R.; Paramygin, V. A.; Figueiredo, R.; Sheng, Y.

2012-12-01

To better understand and communicate the important roles of weather and climate on the coastal environment, a unique publically available tool is being developed to support research, education, and outreach activities. This tool uses virtualization technologies to facilitate an interactive, hands-on environment in which students, researchers, and general public can perform their own numerical modeling experiments. While prior efforts have focused solely on the study of the coastal and estuary environments, this effort incorporates the community supported weather and climate model (WRF-ARW) into the Coastal Science Educational Virtual Appliance (CSEVA), an education tool used to assist in the learning of coastal transport processes; storm surge and inundation; and evacuation modeling. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation, community developed and supported, mesoscale numerical weather prediction system designed to be used internationally for research, operations, and teaching. It includes two dynamical solvers (ARW - Advanced Research WRF and NMM - Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model) as well as a data assimilation system. WRF-ARW is the ARW dynamics solver combined with other components of the WRF system which was developed primarily at NCAR, community support provided by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology (MMM) division of National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Included with WRF is the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) which is a set of programs to prepare input for real-data simulations. The CSEVA is based on the Grid Appliance (GA) framework and is built using virtual machine (VM) and virtual networking technologies. Virtualization supports integration of an operating system, libraries (e.g. Fortran, C, Perl, NetCDF, etc. necessary to build WRF), web server, numerical models/grids/inputs, pre-/post-processing tools (e.g. WPS / RIP4 or UPS), graphical user interfaces, "Cloud"-computing infrastructure and other tools into a

Potential application of glazed transpired collectors to space heating in cold climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Lixin; Bai, Hua; Mao, Shufeng

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A mathematical model for glazed transpired collectors (GTC) is developed. • Glazing results in optical loss, but it decreases convective heat loss effectively. • Thermal performance of GTC shows considerable improvement on flat-plate collectors. • GTC using recirculated air is applicable to space heating in cold climates. - Abstract: Although unglazed transpired collectors (UTC) succeed in industrial ventilation applications, solar fraction is very low when they are used in space heating in cold climates due to the lower exit air temperature. Considering the potential for glazed transpired collectors (GTC) using recirculated air for space heating applications in cold climates, a mathematical model is developed for predicting the thermal performance of GTC. Simulation results show that although glazing results in optical loss, it could decrease convective heat loss resulted from high crosswind velocities effectively. For a solar radiation of 400 W/m 2 , an ambient temperature of −10 °C, and a suction velocity of 0.01 m/s, the exit air temperature of GTC is higher than that of UTC for crosswind velocities exceeding 3.0 m/s. By comparison with a conventional flat-plate solar air collector operating under the same conditions, the thermal performance of GTC shows a significant improvement. For a five-storey hotel building located in the severe cold climate zone of China, case study shows that the annual solar fraction of the GTC-based solar air heating system is about 20%, which is two times higher than that of the flat-plate collector-based system and nearly nine times higher than that of the UTC-based system respectively. Hence, an enormous amount of energy will be saved with the application of GTC to space heating in cold climates

SPAGETTA: a Multi-Purpose Gridded Stochastic Weather Generator

Science.gov (United States)

Dubrovsky, M.; Huth, R.; Rotach, M. W.; Dabhi, H.

2017-12-01

SPAGETTA is a new multisite/gridded multivariate parametric stochastic weather generator (WG). Site-specific precipitation occurrence and amount are modelled by Markov chain and Gamma distribution, the non-precipitation variables are modelled by an autoregressive (AR) model conditioned on precipitation occurrence, and the spatial coherence of all variables is modelled following the Wilks' (2009) approach. SPAGETTA may be run in two modes. Mode 1: it is run as a classical WG, which is calibrated using weather series from multiple sites, and only then it may produce arbitrarily long synthetic series mimicking the spatial and temporal structure of the calibration data. To generate the weather series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the climate change scenario, typically derived from GCM or RCM simulations. Mode 2: the user provides only basic information (not necessarily to be realistic) on the temporal and spatial auto-correlation structure of the weather variables and their mean annual cycle; the generator itself derives the parameters of the underlying AR model, which produces the multi-site weather series. Optionally, the user may add the spatially varying trend, which is superimposed to the synthetic series. The contribution consists of following parts: (a) Model of the WG. (b) Validation of WG in terms of the spatial temperature and precipitation characteristics, including characteristics of spatial hot/cold/dry/wet spells. (c) Results of the climate change impact experiment, in which the WG parameters representing the spatial and temporal variability are modified using the climate change scenarios and the effect on the above spatial validation indices is analysed. In this experiment, the WG is calibrated using the E-OBS gridded daily weather data for several European regions, and the climate change scenarios are derived from the selected RCM simulations (CORDEX database). (d) The second mode of operation will be

The weather and climate: emergent laws and multifractal cascades

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, Shaun; Schertzer, Daniel

2013-04-01

Science in general and physics and geophysics in particular are hierarchies of interlocking theories and models with low level, fundamental laws such as quantum mechanics and statistical mechanics providing the underpinnings for the emergence of the qualitatively new, higher level laws of thermodynamics and continuum mechanics that provide the current bases for modelling the weather and climate. Yest it was the belief of generations of turbulence pioneers (notably Richardson, Kolmogorov, Obhukhov, Corrsin, Bolgiano) that at sufficiently high levels of nonlinearity (quantified by the Reynold's number, of the order 10**12 in the atmosphere) that new even higher level laws would emerge describing "fully developed turbulence". However for atmospheric applications, the pioneers' eponymous laws suffered from two basic restrictions - isotropy and homogeneity - that prevented them from being valid over wide ranges of scale. Over the last thirty years both of these restrictions have been overcome - the former with the generalization from isotropic to strongly anisotropic notions of scale (to account notably for stratification), and from homogeneity to strong heterogeneity (intermittency) via multifractal cascades. In this presentation we give an overview of recent developments and analyses covering huge ranges of space-time scales (including weather, macroweather and climate time scales). We show how the combination of strong anisotropy and strong intermittency commonly leads to the "phenomenological fallacy" in which morphology is confounded with mechanism. With the help of stochastic models, we show how processes with vastly different large and small scale morphologies can arise from a unique multifractal dynamical mechanisms [Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2013]. References: Lovejoy, S., and D. Schertzer (2013), The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades, 480 pp., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

Managing weather and climate risks to agriculture in North America, Central America and the Caribbean

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harlan D. Shannon

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In recent decades, numerous weather- and climate-related natural disasters have impacted North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, repeatedly demonstrating how vulnerable local agriculture is to extreme episodic events. Given this recent history, and expectations that the frequency and intensity of some episodic events will increase with climate change, it is becoming increasingly important for farmers to proactively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture to protect their livelihoods. Some farmers in this region already apply various strategies to help reduce weather and climate risks and uncertainties, including farming in multiple locations, diversifying crops and varieties, seeking alternative sources of income, and purchasing crop insurance. Such efforts often help farmers maintain a more stable income while also protecting and preserving the productivity of the land. Other farmers, however, have failed to implement basic risk management strategies despite the clear benefits. Reasons for these failures can be attributed to inadequate farmer education and training, a lack of tools to help facilitate the practical application of risk management concepts, and poor communications between the agrometeorological and farming communities. The agrometeorological community can help overcome these obstacles by building upon existing efforts that have successfully educated farmers about weather and climate risks to agriculture and have equipped farmers with the data, tools, and applications necessary to manage these risks. Farmer input is critical to preparing effective educational and training materials and developing user-friendly risk management tools. The agrometeorological community should solicit input from farmers regularly to ensure that farmers are obtaining the information necessary to effectively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture.

Capability of LOFT vital batteries to supply emergency power demands during severe cold weather conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yeates, J.A.

1978-01-01

This study evaluates the capability of the vital batteries (PPS) to provide electrical power via the vital DC-AC motor generator sets to the LOFT PPS loads during severe cold weather conditions. It is concluded that these batteries while at a temperature of 5 0 F will supply the necessary PPS electrical loads for a time in excess of the one hour permitted to start the diesel generators and are, therefore, adequate at this temperature. This Revision B of the LTR includes revised, more recent, and complete technical data relating to MG set efficiency, battery operating procedures and cold temperature derating. Revision B supersedes and replaces all previous issues

The Occurrence of Cold Spells in the Alps Related to ClimateChange

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seon Ki Park

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Climate change is not only a likely prospect for the end of this century, but it is already occurring. Part of the changes will include global warming and increasing temperature variability, both at global and regional scales. This increased variability was investigated in this paper from the point of view of the occurrence of cold spells in the Alps in the future climate (2071–2100, compared with the present climate (1961–1990. For this purpose, a regionalisation of the climate change effects was performed within the Alps. To avoid possible errors in the estimate of the 2m air temperature, the analysis was performed on the soil surface temperature. To get realistic values for this variable, a land surface scheme, UTOPIA, has been run on the selected domain, using the output of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM3 simulations as the driving force. The results show that, in general, the number of cold breaks is decreasing over the Alps, due to the temperature increment. However, there are certain zones where the behaviour is more complicated. The analysis of the model output also allowed a relationship to be found between the number of cold breaks and their duration. The significance of these results over the whole area was assessed.

A Simple Exploration of Complexity at the Climate-Weather-Social-Conflict Nexus

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, M.

2017-12-01

The conceptualization, exploration, and prediction of interplay between climate, weather, important resources, and social and economic - so political - human behavior is cast, and analyzed, in terms familiar from statistical physics and nonlinear dynamics. A simple threshold toy model is presented which emulates human tendencies to either actively engage in responses deriving, in part, from environmental circumstances or to maintain some semblance of status quo, formulated based on efforts drawn from the sociophysics literature - more specifically vis a vis a model akin to spin glass depictions of human behavior - with threshold/switching of individual and collective dynamics influenced by relatively more detailed weather and land surface model (hydrological) analyses via a land data assimilation system (a custom rendition of the NASA GSFC Land Information System). Parameters relevant to human systems' - e.g., individual and collective switching - sensitivity to hydroclimatology are explored towards investigation of overall system behavior; i.e., fixed points/equilibria, oscillations, and bifurcations of systems composed of human interactions and responses to climate and weather through, e.g., agriculture. We discuss implications in terms of conceivable impacts of climate change and associated natural disasters on socioeconomics, politics, and power transfer, drawing from relatively recent literature concerning human conflict.

Monitoring the impacts of weather and climate extremes on global agricultural production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Johansson

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB, under the direction of the Department of Agriculture's Office of the Chief Economist, employs a staff of agricultural meteorologists whose mission is to monitor and assess the impacts of weather and climate on crops in key growing areas throughout the world. The results of those analyses contribute to the deliberations conducted by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees (ICEC led by analysts at the World Agricultural Outlook Board. The results of those deliberations can be found in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE report, one of the designated Principle Federal Economic Indicators issued monthly by the Federal Government (White House (Office of Management and Budget, 2015. The process used to develop those estimates each month requires the integration of an assessment of the current climatic conditions with knowledge of the agricultural practices and market conditions of a particular country. Weather and climate data are used in conjunction with information on when and where crops are planted, production practices including irrigation, which varieties are best suited for that particular climate, and what naturally occurring hazards can be expected in any given year. Being able to closely compare current conditions to historic observations of weather and realized output on a fine scale, temporally and geographically, is a key component of the international estimates in the WASDE process.

The effect of different weather data sets and their resolution on climate-based daylight modelling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, A; Svendsen, Svend; Nielsen, Toke Rammer

2013-01-01

Climate-based daylight modelling is based on the available weather data, which means that the weather data used as input to the daylight simulations are of great importance. In this paper, the effect on the outcome of the daylight simulations of using one weather data file rather than another...

Effects of corpuscular radiation on weather and climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bucha, V.

1989-01-01

There is no doubt that the antropogenic effect play an important role in the effects of corpuscular radiation on weather and climate. The task, however, is to distinguish between antropogenic effect in the atmosphere due to human activities and natural climatic fluctuations influencing biological systems. The increase in global temperature during the past 100 years is in relatively good coincidence with the increase in geomagnetic (corpuscular) activity. It is concluded that it could have been the increase in temperature on the Northern Hemisphere, due to the processes occurring in the auroral oval under enhanced corpuscular radiation which led to an increased atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the past. Both processes, i.e., antropogenic and solar activity effects, should be therefore intensively studied due to their important role for elucidating the past and present global change mainly in temperature, climate and biological systems

Event-adjusted evaluation of weather and climate extremes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek

2014-01-01

Roč. 14, č. 2 (2014), s. 473-483 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP209/11/1990 Institutional support: RVO:68378289 Keywords : weather extreme * climate extreme * extremity evaluation * return period * generalized extreme value distribution * region of influence Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.735, year: 2014 http://www.nat-hazards- earth -syst-sci.net/14/473/2014/nhess-14-473-2014.pdf

Atlas : A library for numerical weather prediction and climate modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Deconinck, Willem; Bauer, Peter; Diamantakis, Michail; Hamrud, Mats; Kühnlein, Christian; Maciel, Pedro; Mengaldo, Gianmarco; Quintino, Tiago; Raoult, Baudouin; Smolarkiewicz, Piotr K.; Wedi, Nils P.

2017-11-01

The algorithms underlying numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models that have been developed in the past few decades face an increasing challenge caused by the paradigm shift imposed by hardware vendors towards more energy-efficient devices. In order to provide a sustainable path to exascale High Performance Computing (HPC), applications become increasingly restricted by energy consumption. As a result, the emerging diverse and complex hardware solutions have a large impact on the programming models traditionally used in NWP software, triggering a rethink of design choices for future massively parallel software frameworks. In this paper, we present Atlas, a new software library that is currently being developed at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), with the scope of handling data structures required for NWP applications in a flexible and massively parallel way. Atlas provides a versatile framework for the future development of efficient NWP and climate applications on emerging HPC architectures. The applications range from full Earth system models, to specific tools required for post-processing weather forecast products. The Atlas library thus constitutes a step towards affordable exascale high-performance simulations by providing the necessary abstractions that facilitate the application in heterogeneous HPC environments by promoting the co-design of NWP algorithms with the underlying hardware.

Growing Diversity in Space Weather and Climate Change Research

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, L. P.; Ng, C.; Marchese, P.; Austin, S.; Frost, J.; Cheung, T. D.; Robbins, I.; Carlson, B. E.; Steiner, J. C.; Tremberger, G.; Paglione, T.; Damas, C.; Howard, A.; Scalzo, F.

2013-12-01

Space Weather and Global Climate Impacts are critical items on the present national and international science agendas. Understanding and forecasting solar activity is increasingly important for manned space flight, unmanned missions (including communications satellites, satellites that monitor the space and earth environment), and regional power grids. The ability to predict the effects of forcings and feedback mechanisms on global and local climate is critical to survival of the inhabitants of planet Earth. It is therefore important to motivate students to continue their studies via advanced degrees and pursue careers related to these areas. This CUNY-based initiative, supported by NASA and NSF, provided undergraduate research experience for more than 70 students in topics ranging from urban impacts of global climate change to magnetic rope structure, solar flares and CMEs. Other research topics included investigations of the ionosphere using a CubeSat, stratospheric aerosols in Jupiter's atmosphere, and ocean climate modeling. Mentors for the primarily summer research experiences included CUNY faculty, GISS and GSFC scientists. Students were recruited from CUNY colleges as well as other colleges including Spelman, Cornell, Rutgers and SUNY colleges. Fifty-eight percent of the undergraduate students were under-represented minorities and thirty-four percent were female. Many of the research teams included high school teachers and students as well as graduate students. Supporting workshops for students included data analysis and visualization tools, space weather, planetary energy balance and BalloonSats. The project is supported by NASA awards NNX10AE72G and NNX09AL77G, and NSF REU Site award 0851932.

Clay Mineralogy and Crystallinity as a Climatic Indicator: Evidence for Both Cold and Temperate Conditions on Early Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Horgan, B.; Rutledge, A.; Rampe, E. B.

2015-01-01

Surface weathering on Earth is driven by precipitation (rain/snow melt). Here we summarize the influence of climate on minerals produced during surface weathering, based on terrestrial literature and our new laboratory analyses of weathering products from glacial analog sites. By comparison to minerals identified in likely surface environments on Mars, we evaluate the implications for early martian climate.

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

Integrating interannual climate variability forecasts into weather-indexed crop insurance. The case of Malawi, Kenya and Tanzania

Science.gov (United States)

Vicarelli, M.; Giannini, A.; Osgood, D.

2009-12-01

In this study we explore the potential for re-insurance schemes built on regional climatic forecasts. We focus on micro-insurance contracts indexed on precipitation in 9 villages in Kenya, Tanzania (Eastern Africa) and Malawi (Southern Africa), and analyze the precipitation patterns and payouts resulting from El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The inability to manage future climate risk represents a “poverty trap” for several African regions. Weather shocks can potentially destabilize not only household, but also entire countries. Governments in drought-prone countries, donors and relief agencies are becoming aware of the importance to develop an ex-ante risk management framework for weather risk. Joint efforts to develop innovative mechanisms to spread and pool risk such as microinsurance and microcredit are currently being designed in several developing countries. While ENSO is an important component in modulating the rainfall regime in tropical Africa, the micro-insurance experiments currently under development to address drought risk among smallholder farmers in this region do not take into account ENSO monitoring or forecasting yet. ENSO forecasts could be integrated in the contracts and reinsurance schemes could be designed at the continental scale taking advantage of the different impact of ENSO on different regions. ENSO is associated to a bipolar precipitation pattern in Southern and Eastern Africa. La Niña years (i.e. Cold ENSO Episodes) are characterized by dry climate in Eastern Africa and wet climate in Southern Africa. During El Niño (or Warm Episode) the precipitation dipole is inverted, and Eastern Africa experiences increased probability for above normal rainfall (Halpert and Ropelewski, 1992, Journal of Climate). Our study represents the first exercise in trying to include ENSO forecasts in micro weather index insurance contract design. We analyzed the contracts payouts with respect to climate variability. In particular (i) we simulated

Parametric study on the advantages of weather-predicted control algorithm of free cooling ventilation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medved, Sašo; Babnik, Miha; Vidrih, Boris; Arkar, Ciril

2014-01-01

Predicted climate changes and the increased intensity of urban heat islands, as well as population aging, will increase the energy demand for the cooling of buildings in the future. However, the energy demand for cooling can be efficiently reduced by low-exergy free-cooling systems, which use natural processes, like evaporative cooling or the environmental cold of ambient air during night-time ventilation for the cooling of buildings. Unlike mechanical cooling systems, the energy for the operation of free-cooling system is needed only for the transport of the cold from the environment into the building. Because the natural cold potential is time dependent, the efficiency of free-cooling systems could be improved by introducing a weather forecast into the algorithm for the controlling. In the article, a numerical algorithm for the optimization of the operation of free-cooling systems with night-time ventilation is presented and validated on a test cell with different thermal storage capacities and during different ambient conditions. As a case study, the advantage of weather-predicted controlling is presented for a summer week for typical office room. The results show the necessity of the weather-predicted controlling of free-cooling ventilation systems for achieving the highest overall energy efficiency of such systems in comparison to mechanical cooling, better indoor comfort conditions and a decrease in the primary energy needed for cooling of the buildings. - Highlights: • Energy demand for cooling will increase due to climate changes and urban heat island • Free cooling could significantly reduce energy demand for cooling of the buildings. • Free cooling is more effective if weather prediction is included in operation control. • Weather predicted free cooling operation algorithm was validated on test cell. • Advantages of free-cooling on mechanical cooling is shown with different indicators

Space Weather Influence on the Earth Climate: Possible Manifestations in Wheat Markets Reaction

Science.gov (United States)

Pustilnik, Lev; Yom Din, Gregory; Zagnetko, Alexander

We consider problem of a possible influence of unfavorable states of the space weather on agri-culture market through chain of connections: "space weather"-"earth weather"-"agriculture crops"-"price reaction". We show that new manifestations of "space weather"-"earth weather" relations discovered in the last time allow to revise wide field of expected solar-terrestrial con-nections. In the previous works we proposed possible mechanisms of wheat market reaction in the form of price bursts on the specific unfavorable states of space weather. We show that implementation of considered "price reaction scenarios" is possible only for condition of simul-taneous realization of several necessary conditions: high sensitivity of local earth weather in selected region to space weather; state of "high risk agriculture" in selected agriculture zone; high sensitivity of agricultural market to possible deficit of supply. Results of previous works included application of this approach to wheat market in Medieval England and to modern USA durum market showed that real connection between wheat price bursts and space weather state is observed with high confidence level. The aim of present work is answer on the ques-tion, why wheat markets in one region are sensitive to space weather factor, while another regional wheat markets demonstrate absolute indifferent reaction on this factor. For this aim we consider distribution of sensitivity of wheat markets in Europe to space weather as function of localization in different climatic zones. We analyze giant database of 95 European wheat markets from 14 countries during about 600-year period (1260-1912). We show that observed sensitivity of wheat market to space weather effects controlled, first of all, by type of predomi-nant climate in different zones of agriculture. Wheat markets in the North and part of Central Europe (England, Iceland, Holland) shows reliable sensitivity to space weather in minimum states of solar activity with low

Indoor air quality in cold climates: hazards and abatement measures

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Walkinshaw, D. S

1986-01-01

The first APCA Conference on Indoor Air Quality, held April 29, 30 and May 1, 1985 in Ottawa, featured some 67 presentations covering many aspects of indoor air quality, with the focus on cold climate...

Acidic weathering of carbonate building stones: experimental assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ryszard Kryza

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Three types of carbonate rocks, travertine, limestone and marble have been studied to determine their selected technical parameters (water absorption, resistance to salt crystallization damage and reaction to experimentally modelled acid rain weathering imitating the polluted urban atmospheric conditions. The acidic agents present in natural acid rain precipitation, H2SO4, HCl, HNO3, CH3COOH and mixture of all the acids, “Acid mix”, were tested. The initial stages of acid weathering involve, apart from chemical dissolution, particularly intense physical detachment of rock particles (granular disintegration significantly contributing to the total mass loss. Travertine was found to be most prone to salt crystallization damage and to acid weathering, and these features should be taken into account especially in external architectural usage of this stone in cold climate conditions and polluted urban atmosphere.

Exploring the Intersection of Beliefs toward Outdoor Play and Cold Weather among Northeast Minnesota's Formal Education and Non-Formal EE Communities

Science.gov (United States)

Hughes, Amy Christine; Zak, Kevin; Ernst, Julie; Meyer, Rebecca

2017-01-01

In a notoriously cold-seasoned region, this paper explored how our formal education and non-formal environmental education (EE) gatekeepers of Northeastern Minnesota regard the importance of outdoor play and cold weather for young students. This research study explored the relationship between participant gatekeepers' beliefs of the benefits…

Semi-supervised tracking of extreme weather events in global spatio-temporal climate datasets

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S. K.; Prabhat, M.; Williams, D. N.

2017-12-01

Deep neural networks have been successfully applied to solve problem to detect extreme weather events in large scale climate datasets and attend superior performance that overshadows all previous hand-crafted methods. Recent work has shown that multichannel spatiotemporal encoder-decoder CNN architecture is able to localize events in semi-supervised bounding box. Motivated by this work, we propose new learning metric based on Variational Auto-Encoders (VAE) and Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) to track extreme weather events in spatio-temporal dataset. We consider spatio-temporal object tracking problems as learning probabilistic distribution of continuous latent features of auto-encoder using stochastic variational inference. For this, we assume that our datasets are i.i.d and latent features is able to be modeled by Gaussian distribution. In proposed metric, we first train VAE to generate approximate posterior given multichannel climate input with an extreme climate event at fixed time. Then, we predict bounding box, location and class of extreme climate events using convolutional layers given input concatenating three features including embedding, sampled mean and standard deviation. Lastly, we train LSTM with concatenated input to learn timely information of dataset by recurrently feeding output back to next time-step's input of VAE. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we show the first semi-supervised end-to-end architecture based on VAE to track extreme weather events which can apply to massive scaled unlabeled climate datasets. Second, the information of timely movement of events is considered for bounding box prediction using LSTM which can improve accuracy of localization. To our knowledge, this technique has not been explored neither in climate community or in Machine Learning community.

High potential for weathering and climate effects of non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician

Science.gov (United States)

Porada, Philipp; Lenton, Tim; Pohl, Alexandre; Weber, Bettina; Mander, Luke; Donnadieu, Yannick; Beer, Christian; Pöschl, Ulrich; Kleidon, Axel

2017-04-01

Early non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician may have strongly increased chemical weathering rates of surface rocks at the global scale. This could have led to a drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and, consequently, a decrease in global temperature and an interval of glaciations. Under current climatic conditions, usually field or laboratory experiments are used to quantify enhancement of chemical weathering rates by non-vascular vegetation. However, these experiments are constrained to a small spatial scale and a limited number of species. This complicates the extrapolation to the global scale, even more so for the geological past, where physiological properties of non-vascular vegetation may have differed from current species. Here we present a spatially explicit modelling approach to simulate large-scale chemical weathering by non-vascular vegetation in the Late Ordovician. For this purpose, we use a process-based model of lichens and bryophytes, since these organisms are probably the closest living analogue to Late Ordovician vegetation. The model explicitly represents multiple physiological strategies, which enables the simulated vegetation to adapt to Ordovician climatic conditions. We estimate productivity of Ordovician vegetation with the model, and relate it to chemical weathering by assuming that the organisms dissolve rocks to extract phosphorus for the production of new biomass. Thereby we account for limits on weathering due to reduced supply of unweathered rock material in shallow regions, as well as decreased transport capacity of runoff for dissolved weathered material in dry areas. We simulate a potential global weathering flux of 2.8 km3 (rock) per year, which we define as volume of primary minerals affected by chemical transformation. Our estimate is around 3 times larger than today's global chemical weathering flux. Furthermore, chemical weathering rates simulated by our model are highly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration, which implies

Wood construction under cold climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Xiaodong; Hagman, Olle; Sundqvist, Bror

2014-01-01

As wood constructions increasingly use engineered wood products worldwide, concerns arise about the integrity of the wood and adhesives system. The glueline stability is a crucial issue for engineered wood application, especially under cold climate. In this study, Norway spruce (Picea abies...... affected shear strength of wood joints. As temperature decreased, the shear strength decreased. PUR resin resulted in the strongest shear strength at all temperatures tested. MF resin responded to temperature changes in a similar ways as the PUR resin. The shear strength of wood joints with EPI resins...... specimens need to be tested in further work to more completely present the issue. The EN 301 and EN 302 may need to be specified based on wood species....

Sustainable Algae Biodiesel Production in Cold Climates

OpenAIRE

Baliga, Rudras; Powers, Susan E.

2010-01-01

This life cycle assessment aims to determine the most suitable operating conditions for algae biodiesel production in cold climates to minimize energy consumption and environmental impacts. Two hypothetical photobioreactor algae production and biodiesel plants located in Upstate New York (USA) are modeled. The photobioreactor is assumed to be housed within a greenhouse that is located adjacent to a fossil fuel or biomass power plant that can supply waste heat and flue gas containing CO2 as a ...

Transportation system resilience, extreme weather and climate change : a thought leadership series

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-01

This report summarizes key findings from the Transportation System Resilience, Extreme Weather and Climate Change thought leadership series held at Volpe, the National Transportation Systems Center from fall 2013 to spring 2014.

Extinction of an introduced warm-climate alien species, Xenopus laevis, by extreme weather events.

Science.gov (United States)

Tinsley, Richard C; Stott, Lucy C; Viney, Mark E; Mable, Barbara K; Tinsley, Matthew C

Invasive, non-native species represent a major threat to biodiversity worldwide. The African amphibian Xenopus laevis is widely regarded as an invasive species and a threat to local faunas. Populations originating at the Western Cape, South Africa, have been introduced on four continents, mostly in areas with a similar Mediterranean climate. Some introduced populations are also established in cooler environments where persistence for many decades suggests a capacity for long-term adaptation. In these cases, recent climate warming might enhance invasion ability, favouring range expansion, population growth and negative effects on native faunas. In the cool temperate UK, populations have been established for about 50 years in Wales and for an unknown period, probably >20 years, in England (Lincolnshire). Our field studies over 30 and 10 years, respectively, show that in favourable conditions there may be good recruitment, fast individual growth rates and large body size; maximum longevity exceeds 23 years. Nevertheless, areas of distribution remained limited, with numbers extinct. The winters of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 experienced extreme cold and drought (December 2010 was the coldest in 120 years and the third driest in 100 years). The extinction of X. laevis in these areas indicates that even relatively long-established alien species remain vulnerable to rare extreme weather conditions.

Winter Weather Emergencies

Science.gov (United States)

Severe winter weather can lead to health and safety challenges. You may have to cope with Cold related health problems, including ... there are no guarantees of safety during winter weather emergencies, you can take actions to protect yourself. ...

PERSIAN GARDENS IN COLD AND DRY CLIMATE: A CASE STUDY OF TABRIZ’S HISTORICAL GARDENS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahad Nejad Ebrahimi

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Throughout history, gardens and garden designing has been in the attention of Persian architects who had special expertise in the construction of gardens. The appearance of Islam and allegories of paradise taken from that in Koran and Saints’ sayings gave spirituality to garden construction. Climate conditions have also had an important role in this respect but little research has been done about it and most of the investigations have referred to spiritual aspects and forms of garden. The cold and dry climate that has enveloped parts of West and North West of Iran has many gardens with different forms and functions, which have not been paid much attention to by studies done so far. The aim of this paper is to identify the features and specifications of cold and dry climate gardens with an emphasis on Tabriz’s Gardens.  Due to its natural and strategic situation, Tabriz has always been in the attention of governments throughout history; travellers and tourists have mentioned Tabriz as a city that has beautiful gardens. But, the earthquakes and wars have left no remains of those beautiful gardens. This investigation, by a comparative study of the climates in Iran and the effect of those climates on the formation of gardens and garden design, tries to identify the features and characteristics of gardens in cold and dry climate. The method of study is interpretive-historical on the basis of written documents and historic features and field study of existing gardens in this climate. The results show that, with respect to natural substrate, vegetation, the form of water supply, and the general form of the garden; gardens in dry and cold climate are different from gardens in other climates.

Lightning Applications in Weather and Climate Research

Science.gov (United States)

Price, Colin G.

2013-11-01

Thunderstorms, and lightning in particular, are a major natural hazard to the public, aviation, power companies, and wildfire managers. Lightning causes great damage and death every year but also tells us about the inner working of storms. Since lightning can be monitored from great distances from the storms themselves, lightning may allow us to provide early warnings for severe weather phenomena such as hail storms, flash floods, tornadoes, and even hurricanes. Lightning itself may impact the climate of the Earth by producing nitrogen oxides (NOx), a precursor of tropospheric ozone, which is a powerful greenhouse gas. Thunderstorms themselves influence the climate system by the redistribution of heat, moisture, and momentum in the atmosphere. What about future changes in lightning and thunderstorm activity? Many studies show that higher surface temperatures produce more lightning, but future changes will depend on what happens to the vertical temperature profile in the troposphere, as well as changes in water balance, and even aerosol loading of the atmosphere. Finally, lightning itself may provide a useful tool for tracking climate change in the future, due to the nonlinear link between lightning, temperature, upper tropospheric water vapor, and cloud cover.

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kyung Ah Koo

Full Text Available Climate change has caused shifts in species' ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1 identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2 predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77. Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and

Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Cold-Tolerant Evergreen Broadleaved Woody Plants in the Korean Peninsula.

Science.gov (United States)

Koo, Kyung Ah; Kong, Woo-Seok; Nibbelink, Nathan P; Hopkinson, Charles S; Lee, Joon Ho

2015-01-01

Climate change has caused shifts in species' ranges and extinctions of high-latitude and altitude species. Most cold-tolerant evergreen broadleaved woody plants (shortened to cold-evergreens below) are rare species occurring in a few sites in the alpine and subalpine zones in the Korean Peninsula. The aim of this research is to 1) identify climate factors controlling the range of cold-evergreens in the Korean Peninsula; and 2) predict the climate change effects on the range of cold-evergreens. We used multimodel inference based on combinations of climate variables to develop distribution models of cold-evergreens at a physiognomic-level. Presence/absence data of 12 species at 204 sites and 6 climatic factors, selected from among 23 candidate variables, were used for modeling. Model uncertainty was estimated by mapping a total variance calculated by adding the weighted average of within-model variation to the between-model variation. The range of cold-evergreens and model performance were validated by true skill statistics, the receiver operating characteristic curve and the kappa statistic. Climate change effects on the cold-evergreens were predicted according to the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Multimodel inference approach excellently projected the spatial distribution of cold-evergreens (AUC = 0.95, kappa = 0.62 and TSS = 0.77). Temperature was a dominant factor in model-average estimates, while precipitation was minor. The climatic suitability increased from the southwest, lowland areas, to the northeast, high mountains. The range of cold-evergreens declined under climate change. Mountain-tops in the south and most of the area in the north remained suitable in 2050 and 2070 under the RCP 4.5 projection and 2050 under the RCP 8.5 projection. Only high-elevations in the northeastern Peninsula remained suitable under the RCP 8.5 projection. A northward and upper-elevational range shift indicates change in species composition at the alpine and subalpine

Influence of cirrus clouds on weather and climate processes A global perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, K.-N.

1986-01-01

Current understanding and knowledge of the composition and structure of cirrus clouds are reviewed and documented in this paper. In addition, the radiative properties of cirrus clouds as they relate to weather and climate processes are described in detail. To place the relevance and importance of cirrus composition, structure and radiative properties into a global perspective, pertinent results derived from simulation experiments utilizing models with varying degrees of complexity are presented; these have been carried out for the investigation of the influence of cirrus clouds on the thermodynamics and dynamics of the atmosphere. In light of these reviews, suggestions are outlined for cirrus-radiation research activities aimed toward the development and improvement of weather and climate models for a physical understanding of cause and effect relationships and for prediction purposes.

Understanding, representing and communicating earth system processes in weather and climate within CNRCWP

Science.gov (United States)

Sushama, Laxmi; Arora, Vivek; de Elia, Ramon; Déry, Stephen; Duguay, Claude; Gachon, Philippe; Gyakum, John; Laprise, René; Marshall, Shawn; Monahan, Adam; Scinocca, John; Thériault, Julie; Verseghy, Diana; Zwiers, Francis

2017-04-01

The Canadian Network for Regional Climate and Weather Processes (CNRCWP) provides significant advances and innovative research towards the ultimate goal of reducing uncertainty in numerical weather prediction and climate projections for Canada's Northern and Arctic regions. This talk will provide an overview of the Network and selected results related to the assessment of the added value of high-resolution modelling that has helped fill critical knowledge gaps in understanding the dynamics of extreme temperature and precipitation events and the complex land-atmosphere interactions and feedbacks in Canada's northern and Arctic regions. In addition, targeted developments in the Canadian regional climate model, that facilitate direct application of model outputs in impact and adaptation studies, particularly those related to the water, energy and infrastructure sectors will also be discussed. The close collaboration between the Network and its partners and end users contributed significantly to this effort.

How to use The National Gallery as a cross curricular approach to weather and climate studies at primary level.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, P. J. K.

2009-09-01

How to use The National Gallery as a cross curricular approach to weather and climate studies at primary level. Pål J. Kirkeby Hansen Faculty of Education and International Studies, Oslo University College (PalKirkeby.Hansen@lui.hio.no) Weather and climate are topics in natural science and geography in primary and secondary education in most countries. The pupils are often doing own weather observations and measurements and are presenting the results oral, by posters or with digital aids. They also use the Internet with all its relevant resources in their studies to develop vocabulary, practical and conceptual knowledge. Knowledge about weather and climate is parts of liberal education and could be projected to other topics in science and to topics in other subjects, for instance: history, social geography, literature and arts. This article reports from a case study in grade 3 classes (age 9 year) during their Weather Week. Their science teacher was, quite untypical, also educated in art history. She arranged a visited to The National Gallery with the double agenda: 1. To introduce the pupils to Norwegian canon paintings from the national romantic period, our so-called "golden age”. 2. To look for and discuss weather elements in this paintings. For one hour the museum curator guided the pupils around the water cycle by using the paintings. While the pupils' own observations of weather, clouds and wind and measurements of temperature and precipitation during the Weather Week only are point checks, the guided tour in The National Gallery gave literally "the whole picture” of the Norwegian weather and climate and of the water cycle. During the tour, the curator constantly invited the pupils to tell about and discuss what weather and water elements they were looking at when standing in front of a painting. The pupils were responsive and interested all the time. Back at school, they demonstrated that they had learned much about both weather elements, the water

Soil Crystallinity As a Climate Indicator: Field Experiments on Earth and Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Horgan, Briony; Scudder, Noel; Rampe, Elizabeth; Rutledge, Alicia

2016-01-01

Soil crystallinity is largely determined by leaching rates, as high leaching rates favor the rapid precipitation of short order or poorly-crystalline phases like the aluminosilicate allophane. High leaching rates can occur due to high precipitation rates, seasonal monsoons, or weathering of glass, but are also caused by the rapid onset of seasonal melting of snow and ice in cold environments. Thus, cold climate soils are commonly dominated by poorly crystalline phases, which mature into kaolin minerals over time. Thus, we hypothesize that, in some contexts, soils with high abundances of poorly crystalline phases could indicate formation under cold climatic conditions. This model could be helpful in interpreting the poorly-constrained paleoclimate of ancient Mars, as the crystallinity of ancient soils and soil-derived sediments appears to be highly variable in time and space. While strong signatures of crystalline phyllosilicates have been identified in possible ancient paleosols on Mars, Mars Science Laboratory rover investigations of diverse ancient sediments at Gale Crater has shown that they can contain very high abundances (40-50 wt%) of poorly crystalline phases. We hypothesize that these poorly crystalline phases could be the result of weathering by ice/snow melt, perhaps providing support for sustained cold climates on early Mars punctuated by more limited warm climates. Furthermore, such poorly crystalline soils could be highly fertile growth media for future human exploration and colonization on Mars. To test this hypothesis, we are currently using rover-like instrumentation to investigate the mineralogy and chemistry of weathering products generated by snow and ice melt in a Mars analog alpine environment: the glaciated Three Sisters volcanic complex in central Oregon. Alteration in this glacial environment generates high abundances of poorly crystalline phases, many of which have compositions distinct from those identified in previous terrestrial

Living with climatic change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beltzner, K [ed.

1976-03-01

The effects of global warming on economies and societies are discussed. The history of past climate changes in North America is summarized, ranging from short period variations to changes over centuries and millenia. To aid in forecasting the effects of future climatic variation, historical episodes that have had well documented socio-economic effects are examined. These episodes include: the variability period of 1895-1905 characterized by cool climate, wet periods in the northwestern great plains, sustained drought in the Pacific northwest, extreme cold in the gulf states, and the Galveston flood; the midwestern drought of 1933-1937, characterized by drought on the great plains, very cold snowy winters, hot summers, and massive soil erosion; 1935-36, characterized by a very cold winter and a very hot summer; the Mexican drought of 1937-45, characterized by recurrent drought in Mexico; the variable period of 1950-1958, characterized by Pacific coast drought, drought and flood on the great plains, cold and warm winters and summers, wheat rust, coastal storms and forest fires; the Eastern urban drought of 1961-66 characterized by sustained cold drought in eastern North America; the sea ice period of 1964-65 and 1971-72, characterized by heavy sea ice; snowfall period of 1970-74 characterized by heavy winter snowfalls and a late, wet spring; and the global interdependence period of 1972 characterized by cold winters in Canada and USSR, drought in Asia, the Sahel, Australia, central America, floods in North Africa, high ocean surface temperatures off Peru, and unusually cold weather in the corn belt. 33 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

The effect of inclement weather on trauma orthopaedic workload.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cashman, J P

2012-01-31

BACKGROUND: Climate change models predict increasing frequency of extreme weather. One of the challenges hospitals face is how to make sure they have adequate staffing at various times of the year. AIMS: The aim of this study was to examine the effect of this severe inclement weather on hospital admissions, operative workload and cost in the Irish setting. We hypothesised that there is a direct relationship between cold weather and workload in a regional orthopaedic trauma unit. METHODS: Trauma orthopaedic workload in a regional trauma unit was examined over 2 months between December 2009 and January 2010. This corresponded with a period of severe inclement weather. RESULTS: We identified a direct correlation between the drop in temperature and increase in workload, with a corresponding increase in demand on resources. CONCLUSIONS: Significant cost savings could be made if these injuries were prevented. While the information contained in this study is important in the context of resource planning and staffing of hospital trauma units, it also highlights the vulnerability of the Irish population to wintery weather.

Enhanced Continental Weathering on Antarctica During the Mid Miocene Climatic Optima Based on Pb Isotopes

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, E. E.; Fenn, C.; Basak, C.

2012-12-01

Feedbacks between climate and continental weathering can be monitored over geologic time scales using Pb isotopes preserved in marine sediments. During chemical weathering, radiogenic Pb is preferentially released to the dissolved phase, producing weathering solutions with more radiogenic isotopic values than the parent rock. The offset between the composition of the solution and rock tend to increase with the intensity of incongruent weathering (von Blanckenburg and Nägler, 2001; Harlavan and Erel, 2002). The seawater isotopic signal extracted from Fe-Mn oxides on bulk marine sediments is interpreted to represent the composition of local dissolved weathering inputs. For example, increasing seawater Pb isotopes observed during the most recent deglaciation are believed to reflect enhanced weathering of newly exposed glacial rock flour under warm conditions (Foster and Vance, 2006; Kurzweil et al., 2010). For this study we evaluated Nd and Pb isotopes from both the seawater fraction (extracted from Fe-Mn oxides) and parent rock (the detrital fraction of marine sediment) during the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) and subsequent cooling and East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) expansion (18 to 8 Ma) from Ocean Drilling Program site 744 on Kerguelen Plateau (2300 m; Indian sector) and sites 689 and 690 on Maud Rise (2080 m and 2914 m; Atlantic sector). The absolute value of seawater 206Pb/204Pb and separation between values for seawater and detrital fractions increased during the MMCO, suggesting enhanced weathering in proglacial and deglaciated areas exposed by ice sheet meltback during the warm interval. During the ensuing cooling, seawater values and the offset between the two archives decreased. Similar trends are displayed by 207Pb/204Pb and 208Pb/204Pb, although 207Pb/204Pb detrital values tend to be higher than seawater values. Reconstructions of atmospheric pCO2 in the Miocene have suggested both 1) decoupling between pCO2 and climate with consistently low

There's no such thing as bad weather, just the wrong clothing: climate, weather and active school transportation in Toronto, Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Mitra, Raktim; Faulkner, Guy

2012-07-10

Climatic conditions may enable or deter active school transportation in many North American cities, but the topic remains largely overlooked in the existing literature. This study explores the effect of seasonal climate (i.e., fall versus winter) and weekly weather conditions (i.e., temperature, precipitation) on active travelling to school across different built and policy environments. Home-to-school trips by 11-12-year-old children in the City of Toronto were examined using data from the 2006 Transportation Tomorrow Survey. Binomial logistic regressions were estimated to explore the correlates of the choice of active (i.e., walking) versus non-active (i.e., private automobile, transit and school bus) mode for school trips. Climate and weather-related variables were not associated with choice of school travel mode. Children living within the sidewalk snow-plough zone (i.e., in the inner-suburban neighbourhoods) were less likely to walk to school than children living outside of the zone (i.e., in the inner-city neighbourhoods). Given that seasonality and short-term weather conditions appear not to limit active school transportation in general, built environment interventions designed to facilitate active travel could have benefits that spill over across the entire year rather than being limited to a particular season. Educational campaigns with strategies for making the trip fun and ensuring that the appropriate clothing choices are made are also warranted in complementing built environment modifications.

Global warming and ocean acidification through halted weathering feedback during the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum

Science.gov (United States)

van der Ploeg, R.; Selby, D. S.; Cramwinckel, M.; Bohaty, S. M.; Sluijs, A.; Middelburg, J. J.

2016-12-01

The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) represents a 500 kyr period of global warming 40 million years ago associated with a rise in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but its cause remains enigmatic. Moreover, on the timescale of the MECO, an increase in silicate weathering rates on the continents is expected to balance carbon input and restore the alkalinity of the oceans, but this is in sharp disagreement with observations of extensive carbonate dissolution. Here we show, based on osmium isotope ratios of marine sediments from three different sites, that CO2 rise and warming did not lead to enhanced continental weathering during the MECO, in contrast to expectations from carbon cycle theory. Remarkably, a minor shift to lower, more unradiogenic osmium isotope ratios rather indicates an episode of increased volcanism or reduced continental weathering. This disproves silicate weathering as a geologically constant feedback to CO2 variations. Rather, we suggest that global Early and Middle Eocene warmth diminished the weatherability of continental rocks, ultimately leading to CO2 accumulation during the MECO, and show the plausibility of this scenario using carbon cycle modeling simulations. We surmise a dynamic weathering feedback might explain multiple enigmatic phases of coupled climate and carbon cycle change in the Cretaceous and Cenozoic.

Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

Science.gov (United States)

Kovach, Ryan P.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Whited, Diane C.; Schmetterling, David A.; Dux, Andrew M; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2017-01-01

Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors.We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate).Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor).Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact.Synthesis and applications. Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation

An analysis of solar assisted ground source heat pumps in cold climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Emmi, Giuseppe; Zarrella, Angelo; De Carli, Michele; Galgaro, Antonio

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The work focuses on solar assisted ground source heat pump in cold climates. • Multi-year simulations of SAGSHP, are carried out in six cold locations. • GSHP and SAGSHP are compared. • The effect of total borehole length on the heat pump energy efficiency is studied. • A dedicated control strategy is used to manage both solar and ground loops. - Abstract: Exploiting renewable energy sources for air-conditioning has been extensively investigated over recent years, and many countries have been working to promote the use of renewable energy to decrease energy consumption and CO_2 emissions. Electrical heat pumps currently represent the most promising technology to reduce fossil fuel usage. While ground source heat pumps, which use free heat sources, have been taking significant steps forward and despite the fact that their energy performance is better than that of air source heat pumps, their development has been limited by their high initial investment cost. An alternative solution is one that uses solar thermal collectors coupled with a ground source heat pump in a so-called solar assisted ground source heat pump. A ground source heat pump system, used to heat environments located in a cold climate, was investigated in this study. The solar assisted ground source heat pump extracted heat from the ground by means of borehole heat exchangers and it injected excess solar thermal energy into the ground. Building load profiles are usually heating dominated in cold climates, but when common ground source heat pump systems are used only for heating, their performance decreases due to an unbalanced ground load. Solar thermal collectors can help to ensure that systems installed in cold zones perform more efficiently. Computer simulations using a Transient System Simulation (TRNSYS) tool were carried out in six cold locations in order to investigate solar assisted ground source heat pumps. The effect of the borehole length on the energy efficiency of

National programme for weather, climate and atmosphere research. Annual report 1984/85

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Louw, CW

1984-12-01

Full Text Available This report reviews the activities of the National Programme for Weather, Climate and Atmosphere Research (NPWCAR) for 1984/85, highlights the findings and also discusses future developments and general needs regarding research within the framework...

Adverse weather conditions for European wheat production will become more frequent with climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Trnka, Miroslav; Rötter, Reimund P.; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2014-01-01

events that might significantly affect wheat yield in Europe. For this purpose we analysed changes in the frequency of the occurrence of 11 adverse weather events. Using climate scenarios based on the most recent ensemble of climate models and greenhouse gases emission estimates, we assessed...... crop failure across Europe. This study provides essential information for developing adaptation strategies.......Europe is the largest producer of wheat, the second most widely grown cereal crop after rice. The increased occurrence and magnitude of adverse and extreme agroclimatic events are considered a major threat for wheat production. We present an analysis that accounts for a range of adverse weather...

Weather, climate, and resource Information should meet the needs of Sahelian pastoralists

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Laura Vang; Mertz, Ole; Rasmussen, Kjeld

2014-01-01

There has been an increasing focus on providing better weather, climate, and resource information for decision making in drylands. This study explores what kind of information pastoralists in the Sahel received in 2013 and how they responded to this information. Moreover, the study assesses whether...... the disseminated information corresponds to the actual needs of pastoralists. The overall objective is thus to identify the outcome of providing weather, climate, and resource information to pastoralists and thereby to explore whether and how various products may guide their mobility and decision-making patterns....... Such information could be used to adjust the purchase of supplementary fodder, to make qualified choices on transhumance destinations, and to make changes in herd composition. As pastoralists primarily acquire this information by calling friends and family in nearby areas, the results point to a strong disconnect...

Preparing Middle School Teachers to Use Science Models Effectively when Teaching about Weather and Climate Topics

Science.gov (United States)

Yarker, M. B.; Stanier, C. O.; Forbes, C.; Park, S.

2012-12-01

According to the National Science Education Standards (NSES), teachers are encouraged to use science models in the classroom as a way to aid in the understanding of the nature of the scientific process. This is of particular importance to the atmospheric science community because climate and weather models are very important when it comes to understanding current and future behaviors of our atmosphere. Although familiar with weather forecasts on television and the Internet, most people do not understand the process of using computer models to generate weather and climate forecasts. As a result, the public often misunderstands claims scientists make about their daily weather as well as the state of climate change. Therefore, it makes sense that recent research in science education indicates that scientific models and modeling should be a topic covered in K-12 classrooms as part of a comprehensive science curriculum. The purpose of this research study is to describe how three middle school teachers use science models to teach about topics in climate and weather, as well as the challenges they face incorporating models effectively into the classroom. Participants in this study took part in a week long professional development designed to orient them towards appropriate use of science models for a unit on weather, climate, and energy concepts. The course design was based on empirically tested features of effective professional development for science teachers and was aimed at teaching content to the teachers while simultaneously orienting them towards effective use of science models in the classroom in a way that both aids in learning about the content knowledge as well as how models are used in scientific inquiry. Results indicate that teachers perceive models to be physical representations that can be used as evidence to convince students that the teacher's conception of the concept is correct. Additionally, teachers tended to use them as ways to explain an idea to

Effects of Recent Climate Change on Hourly Weather Data for HVAC Design: A Case Study of Osaka

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jihui Yuan

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The current design weather data used for heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC design in Japan was created using an old data period. New design weather data should be created to reflect recent local climate change. Based on our previous proposal of creating design weather data with two weather indices (dry-bulb temperature and enthalpy for HVAC design, design weather data for Osaka was created using more recently-measured weather data (period: 2001~2015 from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA in this study. The effect of recent climate change on the design weather data created with eight proposed methods was found. It showed the change in weather elements for cooling design clearly trends to warmer and drier weather, with more solar radiation and lower enthalpy, while the trends in heating design are less clear, mainly showing higher enthalpy. Furthermore, the difference in the peak load for the heating and cooling designs using the new and old design weather data was compared. The comparison showed that the minimum difference in peak load for the heating design was found using the mean daily dry-bulb temperature as the first and second indices; for the cooling design, the minimum difference in peak load was found using mean daily enthalpy as both the first and second indices.

Study of wind turbine foundations in cold climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-11-01

This report provides an overview of the processes at work in soil in cold climates and their effect on wind turbine foundations. Havsnaes wind farm consists of 48 turbines located in Jaemtland county in central Sweden. Havsnaes has provided an appropriate research environment to investigate the engineering challenges related to the design and construction of wind turbine foundations in sub-arctic conditions and the experienced gained from this project informs this report.

Climate and Creativity: Cold and Heat Trigger Invention and Innovation in Richer Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Van de Vliert, Evert; Murray, Damian R.

2018-01-01

Nobel laureates, technological pioneers, and innovative entrepreneurs are unequally distributed across the globe. Their density increases in regions toward the North Pole, toward the South Pole, and very close to the Equator. This geographic anomaly led us to explore whether stressful demands of climatic cold and climatic heat (imposed…

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

Science.gov (United States)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

Climate classifications and building energy use implications in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wan, Kevin K.W.; Li, Danny H.W.; Lam, Joseph C.; Yang, Liu

2010-01-01

Cluster analysis of summer and winter discomfort in terms of heat and cold stresses based on 102-year (1901-2002) weather data in China was conducted. Five bioclimate zones were identified. These were compared with the corresponding thermal and solar zoning classifications. Bio-I and Bio-II tended to locate largely within severe cold and cold climates in the north with excellent solar availability (annual clearness index K t generally exceeding 0.5). Bio-III and Bio-IV covered mostly the hot summer and cold winter and mild climate zones. Despite the relatively low K t in winter, passive solar heating should be able to meet a significant proportion of the heating requirements. Bio-V covered the hot summer and warmer winter region, where heat stress and hence cooling requirement dominated. Decreasing trends in the zone-average annual cumulative cold stress during the 102-year period were observed for all five zones. There was, however, no distinct pattern for the heat stress and the changes tended to be more subtle. These indicate that climate change during the 20 th century affected winter discomfort (especially in colder climates in the north) more than the summer discomfort. This could have significant implications for energy use in buildings if such trends persist. (author)

Weather influences feed intake and feed efficiency in a temperate climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Davina L; Wall, Eileen

2017-03-01

A key goal for livestock science is to ensure that food production meets the needs of an increasing global population. Climate change may heighten this challenge through increases in mean temperatures and in the intensity, duration, and spatial distribution of extreme weather events, such as heat waves. Under high ambient temperatures, livestock are expected to decrease dry matter intake (DMI) to reduce their metabolic heat production. High yielding dairy cows require high DMI to support their levels of milk production, but this may increase susceptibility to heat stress. Here, we tested how feed intake and the rate of converting dry matter to milk (feed efficiency, FE) vary in response to natural fluctuations in weather conditions in a housed experimental herd of lactating Holstein Friesians in the United Kingdom. Cows belonged to 2 lines: those selected for high genetic merit for milk traits (select) and those at the UK average (control). We predicted that (1) feed intake and FE would vary with an index of temperature and humidity (THI), wind speed, and the number of hours of sunshine, and that (2) the effects of (1) would depend on the cows' genetic merit. Animals received a mixed ration, available ad libitum, from automatic feed measurement gates. Using >73,000 daily feed intake and FE records from 328 cows over 8 yr, we found that select cows produced more fat- and protein-corrected milk, and had higher DMI and FE than controls. Cows of both lines decreased DMI and fat- and protein-corrected milk but, importantly, increased FE as THI increased. This suggests that improvements in the efficiency of converting feed to milk may partially offset the costs of reduced milk yield owing to a warmer climate, at least under conditions of mild heat stress. The rate of increase in FE with THI was steeper in select cows than in controls, which raises the possibility that select cows use more effective coping tactics. This is, to our knowledge, the first longitudinal study

Thermal stress analysis of reactor containment building considering severe weather condition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Yun; Kim, Yun-Yong; Hyun, Jung-Hwan; Kim, Do-Gyeum

2014-01-01

Highlights: • We examine that through-wall crack risk in cold weather is high. • It is predicted that cracking in concrete wall will not happen in hot region. • Cracking due to hydration heat can be controlled by appropriate curing condition. • Temperature differences between inner and outer face is relatively small in hot weather. - Abstract: Prediction of concrete cracking due to hydration heat in mass concrete such as reactor containment building (RCB) in nuclear power plant is a crucial issue in construction site. In this study, the numerical analysis for heat transfer and stress development is performed for the containment wall in RCB by considering the severe weather conditions. Finally, concrete cracking risk in hot and cold weather is discussed based on analysis results. In analyses considering severe weather conditions, it is found that the through-wall cracking risk in cold weather is high due to the abrupt temperature difference between inside concrete and the ambient air in cold region. In hot weather, temperature differences between inner and outer face is relatively small, and accordingly the relevant cracking risk is relatively low in contrast with cold weather

Soils and climate: redness and weathering as indicators of mean annual precipitation

Science.gov (United States)

Lucke, Bernhard

2016-04-01

Paleosols can be used as archives of past changes of climate and landscapes, but their interpretation has to be based on modern analogies such as Budyko's law of soil zonality. These can be very useful if the respective processes of soil formation are sufficiently well understood. However, some soils such as the Terra Rossa or Red Mediterranean Soils, that are widespread at the fringes of the steppes and deserts, are still disputed with regard to their genesis and environmental significance. In particular, there is no agreement whether they resemble current environmental conditions, or are inherited from climates or sediments of the past. In this context, a remarkable change of the color of surface soils can be observed when driving from the city of Irbid in Jordan towards the east. Soil color apparently changes slowly, but steadily from dark red to yellow colors. However, attempting to express these color changes in numerical form is challenging, and it seemed questionable whether color is indeed connected with soil weathering intensity, or an optical illusion. However, a systematic comparison of different approaches of calculating soil redness found that the CIELAB-color system is suited for numerical expressions of soil redness and performs better than the Munsell charts. Along the investigated transect in Jordan, soil color seems strongly connected with weathering intensity, since various weathering indicators point to a steady increase of soil development with moisture. This suggests that such indices can well be used in semi-arid areas of 250-600 mm of mean annual precipitation. A very strong correlation of magnetic enhancement and rainfall indicates that the investigated soils are forming in equilibrium with current climatic conditions, and regressions based on this gradient might be suited for estimating paleorainfalls recorded by buried paelosols. It seems therefore that surface Terra Rossa soils in Jordan can be in equilibrium with current climate

Climate, Weather and Daily Mobility : Transport Mode Choices and Travel Experiences in the Randstad Holland

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Böcker, L.

2014-01-01

Intuitively, weather plays an important role in everyday mobility. How often do we not expose ourselves to cold, heat, sun, rain, snow or wind when we are travelling on foot or by bicycle; waiting at a bus stop; walking towards a parked car; or driving under slippery road conditions. Recently,

Farm service agency employee intentions to use weather and climate data in professional services

Science.gov (United States)

Rachel E. Schattman; Gabrielle Roesch-McNally; Sarah Wiener; Meredith T. Niles; David Y. Hollinger

2018-01-01

Agricultural service providers often work closely with producers, and are well positioned to include weather and climate change information in the services they provide. By doing so, they can help producers reduce risks due to climate variability and change. A national survey of United States Department of Agriculture Farm Service Agency (FSA) field staff (n...

Climate, weather, socio-economic and electricity usage data for the residential and commercial sectors in FL, U.S

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sayanti Mukherjee

2017-08-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the data that is used in the article entitled “Climate sensitivity of end-use electricity consumption in the built environment: An application to the state of Florida, United States” (Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi, 2017 [1]. The data described in this paper pertains to the state of Florida (during the period of January 1990 to November 2015. It can be classified into four categories of (i state-level electricity consumption data; (ii climate data; (iii weather data; and (iv socio-economic data. While, electricity consumption data and climate data are obtained at monthly scale directly from the source, the weather data was initially obtained at daily-level, and then aggregated to monthly level for the purpose of analysis. The time scale of socio-economic data varies from monthly-level to yearly-level. This dataset can be used to analyze the influence of climate and weather on the electricity demand as described in Mukhopadhyay and Nateghi (2017 [1].

Airtightness Results of Roof-Only Air Sealing Strategies on 1 ½-Story Homes in Cold Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ojczyk, C.; Murry, T.; Mosiman, G.

2014-07-01

In this second study on solutions to ice dams in 1-1/2 story homes, the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership team analyzed five test homes located in both cold and very cold climates for air leakage reduction rates following modifications by independent contractors on owner-occupied homes. These homes were chosen for testing as they are common in Minnesota and very difficult to air seal and insulate effectively. Two projects followed a roof-only Exterior Thermal Moisture Management System (ETMMS) process. One project used an interior-only approach to roof air sealing and insulation. The remaining two projects used a deep energy retrofit approach for whole house (foundation wall, above grade wall, roof) air leakage and heat loss reduction. All were asked to provide information regarding project goals, process, and pre and post-blower door test results. Additional air leakage reduction data was provided by several NorthernSTAR industry partners for interior-applied, roof-only modifications on 1-1/2 story homes. The data represents homes in the general market as well as homes that were part of the state of Minnesota weatherization program. A goal was to compare exterior air sealing methods with interior approaches. This pool of data enabled the team to compare air tightness data from over 220 homes using similar air seal methods.

Optimization of Domestic-Size Renewable Energy System Designs Suitable for Cold Climate Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Akpan, Itoro Etim; Sasaki, Masafumi; Endoh, Noboru

Five different kinds of domestic-size renewable energy system configurations for very cold climate regions were investigated. From detailed numerical modeling and system simulations, it was found that the consumption of fuel oil for the auxiliary boiler in residential-type households can almost be eliminated with a renewable energy system that incorporates photovoltaic panel arrays for electricity generation and two storage tanks: a well-insulated electric water storage tank that services the hot water loads, and a compact boiler/geothermal heat pump tank for room heating during very cold seasons. A reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHG) of about 28% was achieved for this system compared to an equivalent conventional system. The near elimination of the use of fuel oil in this system makes it very promising for very cold climate regions in terms of energy savings because the running cost is not so dependent on the unstable nature of global oil prices.

Improved Windows for Cold Climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Laustsen, Jacob Birck; Svendsen, Svend

2005-01-01

considerably by reducing the frame width, which results in a larger transparent area causing a larger solar gain but still main-taining a low thermal transmittance. Using three layers of glass with large gaps, using very slim frame profiles, and omitting the edge constructions that normally causes thermal...... windows with improved energy performance. Traditionally evaluation of the energy performance of windows has focused on the thermal transmittance, but as windows differ from the rest of the building envelope by allowing solar energy to enter the building, the total solar energy transmittance is equally...... important. In the heating season in cold climates the solar gain through windows can be utilized for space heating which results in a corresponding reduction in the energy production that is often based on fossil fuels. A suitable quantity for evaluating the energy performance of windows in a simple...

Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 3; Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in the Cold and Very Cold Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2005-08-01

The guide book is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in space conditioning and water heating in the cold and very cold climates.

New counter flow heat exchanger designed for ventilation systems in cold climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kragh, Jesper; Rose, Jørgen; Nielsen, Toke Rammer

2007-01-01

In cold climates, mechanical ventilation systems with highly efficient heat recovery will experience problems with condensing water from the extracted humid indoor air. If the condensed water changes to ice in the heat exchanger, the airflow rate will quickly fall due to the increasing pressure...... problem is therefore desirable. In this paper, the construction and test measurements of a new counter flow heat exchanger designed for cold climates are presented. The developed heat exchanger is capable of continuously defrosting itself without using supplementary heating. Other advantages...... of the developed beat exchanger are low pressure loss, cheap materials and a simple construction. The disadvantage is that the exchanger is big compared with other heat exchangers. In this paper, the new heat exchanger's efficiency is calculated theoretically and measured experimentally. The experiment shows...

Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Bradley S; Chidel, Mark; Law, Peter R

2018-01-01

Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012) of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth) on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species), unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not compromised by

Forest bat population dynamics over 14 years at a climate refuge: Effects of timber harvesting and weather extremes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bradley S Law

Full Text Available Long-term data are needed to explore the interaction of weather extremes with habitat alteration; in particular, can 'refugia' buffer population dynamics against climate change and are they robust to disturbances such as timber harvesting. Because forest bats are good indicators of ecosystem health, we used 14 years (1999-2012 of mark-recapture data from a suite of small tree-hollow roosting bats to estimate survival, abundance and body condition in harvested and unharvested forest and over extreme El Niño and La Niña weather events in southeastern Australia. Trapping was replicated within an experimental forest, located in a climate refuge, with different timber harvesting treatments. We trapped foraging bats and banded 3043 with a 32% retrap rate. Mark-recapture analyses allowed for dependence of survival on time, species, sex, logging treatment and for transients. A large portion of the population remained resident, with a maximum time to recapture of nine years. The effect of logging history (unlogged vs 16-30 years post-logging regrowth on apparent survival was minor and species specific, with no detectable effect for two species, a positive effect for one and negative for the other. There was no effect of logging history on abundance or body condition for any of these species. Apparent survival of residents was not strongly influenced by weather variation (except for the smallest species, unlike previous studies outside of refugia. Despite annual variation in abundance and body condition across the 14 years of the study, no relationship with extreme weather was evident. The location of our study area in a climate refuge potentially buffered bat population dynamics from extreme weather. These results support the value of climate refugia in mitigating climate change impacts, though the lack of an external control highlights the need for further studies on the functioning of climate refugia. Relatively stable population dynamics were not

Catchment chemostasis revisited: water quality responds differently to variations in weather and climate

Science.gov (United States)

Godsey, Sarah; Kirchner, James

2017-04-01

Solute concentrations in streamflow typically vary systematically with stream discharge, and the resulting concentration-discharge relationships are important signatures of catchment (bio)geochemical processes. Solutes derived from mineral weathering often exhibit decreasing concentrations with increasing flows, suggesting dilution of a kinetically limited weathering flux by a variable flux of water. However, Godsey et al. (2009) showed that concentration-discharge relationships of weathering-derived solutes in 59 headwater catchments were much flatter than this simple dilution model would predict. Instead, their analysis showed that these catchments behaved almost like chemostats, with rates of solute production and/or mobilization that were nearly proportional to water fluxes, on both event and inter-annual time scales. Here we re-examine these findings using data from roughly 1000 catchments, ranging from ˜10 to >1,000,000 km2 in drainage area, and spanning a wide range of lithologic and climatic settings. Concentration-discharge relationships among this much larger set of much larger catchments are broadly consistent with the chemostatic behavior described by Godsey et al. (2009). Among these same catchments, however, site-to-site variations in mean concentrations are strongly (negatively) correlated with long-term average precipitation and discharge, suggesting strong dilution of stream concentrations under long-term leaching of the critical zone. The picture that emerges is one in which, on event and inter-annual time scales, stream solute concentrations are chemostatically buffered by groundwater storage and fast chemical reactions (such as ion exchange), but on much longer time scales, the catchment's chemostatic "set point" is determined by climatically driven critical zone evolution. Examples illustrating the different influences of (short-term) weather and (long-term) climate on water quality will be presented, and their implications will be discussed

Interweaving climate research and public understanding

Science.gov (United States)

Betts, A. K.

2016-12-01

For the past 10 years I have been using research into land-atmosphere-cloud coupling to address Vermont's need to understand climate change, and develop plans for greater resilience in the face of increasing severe weather. The research side has shown that the fraction of days with snow cover determines the cold season climate, because snow acts as a fast climate switch between non-overlapping climates with and without snow cover. Clouds play opposite roles in warm and cold seasons: surface cooling in summer and warming in winter. The later fall freeze-up and earlier spring ice-out on lakes, coupled to the earlier spring phenology, are clear markers both of a warming climate, as well as the large interannual variability. Severe flooding events have come with large-scale quasi-stationary weather patterns. This past decade I have given 230 talks to schools, business and professional groups, as well as legislative committees and state government. I have written 80 environmental columns for two Vermont newspapers, as part of a weekly series I helped start in 2008. Commentaries and interviews on radio and TV enable me to explain directly the issues we face, as the burning of fossil fuels destabilizes the climate system. The public in Vermont is eager to learn and understand these issues since many have roots in the land; while professional groups need all the information and guidance possible to prepare for the future. My task as a scientist is to map out what we know in ways that can readily be grasped in terms of past experience, even though the climate system is already moving outside this range - and at the same time outline general principles and hopeful strategies for dealing with global and local climate change.

Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2013-01-01

This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

Global negative vegetation feedback to climate warming responses of leaf litter decomposition rates in cold biomes.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Cornelissen, J.H.C.; van Bodegom, P.M.; Aerts, R.; Gallaghan, T.V.; van Logtestijn, R.S.P; Alatalo, J.; Chapin, F.S. III; Gerdol, R.; Gudmundsson, J.; Gwynn-Jones, D.; Hartley, A.E.; Hik, D.S.; Hofgaard, A.; Jonsdottir, I.S.; Karlsson, S.; Klein, J.A.; Laundre, J.; Magnusson, B.; Michelsel, A.; Molau, U.; Onipchenko, V.G.; Quested, H.M.; Sandvik, S.M.; Schmidt, I.K.; Shaver, G.R.; Solhleim, B.; Soudzilovskaia, N.A.; Stenstrom, A.; Tolvanen, A.; Totland, O.; Wada, N.; Welker, J.M.; Zhao, X.; Team, M.O.L.

2007-01-01

Whether climate change will turn cold biomes from large long-term carbon sinks into sources is hotly debated because of the great potential for ecosystem-mediated feedbacks to global climate. Critical are the direction, magnitude and generality of climate responses of plant litter decomposition.

SCOSTEP: Understanding the Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System

Science.gov (United States)

Gopalswamy, Natchimuthuk

2011-01-01

The international solar-terrestrial physics community had recognized the importance of space weather more than a decade ago, which resulted in a number of international collaborative activities such as the Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System (CAWSES) by the Scientific Committee on Solar Terrestrial Physics (SCOSTEP). The CAWSES program is the current major scientific program of SCOSTEP that will continue until the end of the year 2013. The CAWSES program has brought scientists from all over the world together to tackle the scientific issues behind the Sun-Earth connected system and explore ways of helping the human society. In addition to the vast array of space instruments, ground based instruments have been deployed, which not only filled voids in data coverage, but also inducted young scientists from developing countries into the scientific community. This paper presents a summary of CAWSES and other SCOSTEP activities that promote space weather science via complementary approaches in international scientific collaborations, capacity building, and public outreach.

Respiratory hospital admissions and weather changes: a retrospective study in Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Robert E.; Enfield, Kyle B.

2018-06-01

In most midlatitude locations, human morbidity and mortality are highly seasonal, with winter peaks driven by respiratory disease and associated comorbidities. But the transition between high and low mortality/morbidity months varies spatially. We use a measure of the thermal biophysical strain imposed on the respiratory system—the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI)—to examine respiratory hospital admissions in Charlottesville, VA. Daily respiratory admissions to the University of Virginia over a 19-year period are compared to ATSI values derived from hourly surface weather data acquired from the Charlottesville airport. Negative ATSI values (associated with transitions from warm (and humid) to cold (and dry) conditions) are related to admission peaks at seasonal and weekly timescales, whereas positive ATSI values (cold to warm) exhibit weaker relationships. This research marks the first application of the ATSI to human morbidity, and results suggest that respiratory strain may account for how people who are acclimated to different climates respond to short-term weather changes.

Respiratory hospital admissions and weather changes: a retrospective study in Charlottesville, Virginia, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Robert E.; Enfield, Kyle B.

2018-02-01

In most midlatitude locations, human morbidity and mortality are highly seasonal, with winter peaks driven by respiratory disease and associated comorbidities. But the transition between high and low mortality/morbidity months varies spatially. We use a measure of the thermal biophysical strain imposed on the respiratory system—the Acclimatization Thermal Strain Index (ATSI)—to examine respiratory hospital admissions in Charlottesville, VA. Daily respiratory admissions to the University of Virginia over a 19-year period are compared to ATSI values derived from hourly surface weather data acquired from the Charlottesville airport. Negative ATSI values (associated with transitions from warm (and humid) to cold (and dry) conditions) are related to admission peaks at seasonal and weekly timescales, whereas positive ATSI values (cold to warm) exhibit weaker relationships. This research marks the first application of the ATSI to human morbidity, and results suggest that respiratory strain may account for how people who are acclimated to different climates respond to short-term weather changes.

Numerical analysis of the efficiency of earth to air heat exchange systems in cold and hot-arid climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazlikhani, Faezeh; Goudarzi, Hossein; Solgi, Ebrahim

2017-01-01

Highlights: • A numerical model is developed to evaluate performance of earth to air heat exchanger. • The cooling/heating potential of earth to air heat exchanger is investigated in hot-dry and cold climates. • The more performance of earth to air heat exchanger in hot-dry climates compared to cold climates. • The high efficiency of earth to air heat exchanger for pre-heating in both hot-dry and cold climates. - Abstract: In order to examine and compare the efficiency of earth to air heat exchanger (EAHE) systems in hot-arid (Yazd) and cold (Hamadan) climates in Iran a steady state model was developed to evaluate the impact of various parameters including inlet air temperatures, pipe lengths and ground temperatures on the cooling and heating potential of EAHEs in both climates. The results demonstrated the ability of the system to not only improve the average temperature and decrease the temperature fluctuation of the outlet air temperature of EAHE, but also to trigger considerable energy saving. It was found that in both climates, the system is highly utilized for pre-heating, and its usage is unfeasible in certain periods throughout the year. In winter, EAHEs have the potential of increasing the air temperature in the range of 0.2–11.2 °C and 0.1–17.2 °C for Yazd and Hamadan, respectively. However, in summer, the system decreases the air temperature for the aforementioned cities in the range of 1.3–11.4 °C and 5.7–11.1 °C, respectively. The system ascertains to be more efficient in the hot-arid climate of Yazd, where it can be used on 294 days of the year, leading to 50.1–63.6% energy saving, when compared to the cold climate of Hamadan, where it can be used on 225 days of the year resulting in a reduction of energy consumption by 24.5–47.9%.

Weather and Climate Indicators for Coffee Rust Disease

Science.gov (United States)

Georgiou, S.; Imbach, P. A.; Avelino, J.; Anzueto, F.; del Carmen Calderón, G.

2014-12-01

Coffee rust is a disease that has significant impacts on the livelihoods of those who are dependent on the Central American coffee sector. Our investigation has focussed on the weather and climate indicators that favoured the high incidence of coffee rust disease in Central America in 2012 by assessing daily temperature and precipitation data available from 81 weather stations in the INSIVUMEH and ANACAFE networks located in Guatemala. The temperature data were interpolated to determine the corresponding daily data at 1250 farms located across Guatemala, between 400 and 1800 m elevation. Additionally, CHIRPS five day (pentad) data has been used to assess the anomalies between the 2012 and the climatological average precipitation data at farm locations. The weather conditions in 2012 displayed considerable variations from the climatological data. In general the minimum daily temperatures were higher than the corresponding climatology while the maximum temperatures were lower. As a result, the daily diurnal temperature range was generally lower than the corresponding climatological range, leading to an increased number of days where the temperatures fell within the optimal range for either influencing the susceptibility of the coffee plants to coffee rust development during the dry season, or for the development of lesions on the coffee leaves during the wet season. The coffee rust latency period was probably shortened as a result, and farms at high altitudes were impacted due to these increases in minimum temperature. Factors taken into consideration in developing indicators for coffee rust development include: the diurnal temperature range, altitude, the environmental lapse rate and the phenology. We will present the results of our study and discuss the potential for each of the derived weather and climatological indicators to be used within risk assessments and to eventually be considered for use within an early warning system for coffee rust disease.

Reconstruction of Historical Weather by Assimilating Old Weather Diary Data

Science.gov (United States)

Neluwala, P.; Yoshimura, K.; Toride, K.; Hirano, J.; Ichino, M.; Okazaki, A.

2017-12-01

Climate can control not only human life style but also other living beings. It is important to investigate historical climate to understand the current and future climates. Information about daily weather can give a better understanding of past life on earth. Long-term weather influences crop calendar as well as the development of civilizations. Unfortunately, existing reconstructed daily weather data are limited to 1850s due to the availability of instrumental data. The climate data prior to that are derived from proxy materials (e.g., tree-ring width, ice core isotopes, etc.) which are either in annual or decadal scale. However, there are many historical documents which contain information about weather such as personal diaries. In Japan, around 20 diaries in average during the 16th - 19th centuries have been collected and converted into a digitized form. As such, diary data exist in many other countries. This study aims to reconstruct historical daily weather during the 18th and 19th centuries using personal daily diaries which have analogue weather descriptions such as `cloudy' or `sunny'. A recent study has shown the possibility of assimilating coarse weather data using idealized experiments. We further extend this study by assimilating modern weather descriptions similar to diary data in recent periods. The Global Spectral model (GSM) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is used to reconstruct weather with the Local Ensemble Kalman filter (LETKF). Descriptive data are first converted to model variables such as total cloud cover (TCC), solar radiation and precipitation using empirical relationships. Those variables are then assimilated on a daily basis after adding random errors to consider the uncertainty of actual diary data. The assimilation of downward short wave solar radiation using weather descriptions improves RMSE from 64.3 w/m2 to 33.0 w/m2 and correlation coefficient (R) from 0.5 to 0.8 compared with the case without any

Radon remedial measures in cold climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Birovljev, A.

2004-01-01

A view is taken that mitigation of an indoor radon problem is often more complex than usually assumed, and that additional factors should be considered to avoid situations in which after mitigation the radon problem may be solved, but other problems have been created. Emphasis is put on how the choice and design of radon remedial measures are influenced not only by effectiveness in reducing radon levels indoors, but also by climatic factors, energy-saving aspects, as well as economic and psycho-social factors. Climatic conditions give rise to several concerns when attempting to mitigate a radon problem in areas with large seasonal temperature variations. Problems with humidity, energy consumption and durability of sealing materials are probably the most prominent issues. Commonly used radon remedial measures and their effectiveness in Norway is reviewed. Discussion is focused on principles and technical solutions which produce good results, and those which don't perform so well in cold Norwegian climate. Innovative technical solutions which successfully resolve some of the main conflicting issues are discussed. Results of some preliminary tests showing performance of such solutions in reduction of radon levels are presented. Other aspects of mitigation systems, such as need and cost of maintenance, longevity, noise levels, 'additional benefits', etc., are briefly mentioned. Homeowners' perceptions and willingness to implement various mitigation solutions are briefly reviewed. Based on discussion, several guiding principles which may be adopted in search for optimal solutions are suggested. (author)

A simulation tool for integrating climate change and Canadian surface transport : towards assessing impacts and adaptations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanaroglou, P.; Maoh, H.; Woudsma, C.; Marshall, S.

2008-01-01

Extreme weather events resulting from climate change will have a significant impact of the performance of the Canadian transportation system. This presentation described a simulation tool designed to investigate the potential ramifications of future climate change on transportation and the economy. The CLIMATE-C tool was designed to simulate future weather scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050 using weather parameters obtained from a global general circulation model. The model accounted for linkages between weather, transportation, and economic systems. A random utility-based multi-regional input-output model was used to predict inter-regional trade flows by truck and rail in Canada. Simulated weather scenarios were used to describe predicted changes in demographic, social, economic, technological and environmental developments to 2100. Various changes in population and economic growth were considered. Six additional scenarios were formulated to consider moderate and high rainfall events, moderate, high and extreme snowfall, and cold temperatures. Results of the preliminary analysis indicated that the model is sensitive to changes in weather events. Future research is needed to evaluate future weather scenarios and analyze weather-transport data in order to quantify travel speed reduction parameters. tabs., figs.

Sun as a maker of weather and climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Willett, H C

1976-01-01

The theory that an increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide produced by the combustion of fossil fuels could best explain the warming trend observed from 1920 to 1940 has long stimulated popular concern and debate. An alternative explanation proposing that variations in solar activity best fit recent observed climatic fluctuations, and offering a very sketchy physical hypothesis is presented. Patterns of atmospheric circulation on earth reflect cyclic changes in the sun. By studying solar cycles, a ''little ice age'' bringing extremes of cold is predicted by the year 2200. However, the next age of widespread glaciation is still too distant to be seen.

Where to find weather and climatic data for forest research studies and management planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Donald A. Haines

1977-01-01

Forest-range research or operational study designs should include the possible effects of weather and climate. This document describes the meteorological observational networks, the data available from them, and where the information is stored.

Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review

OpenAIRE

Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Armstrong, Ben; Fleming, Lora E.; Elson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Nichols, Gordon L.

2017-01-01

Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critica...

Airtightness Results of Roof-Only Air Sealing Strategies on 1-1/2 Story Homes in Cold Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ojczyk, C.; Murry, T.; Mosiman, G.

2014-07-01

In this second study on solutions to ice dams in 1-1/2 story homes, five test homes located in both cold and very cold climates were analyzed for air leakage reduction rates following modifications by independent contractors on owner-occupied homes. The reason for choosing this house type was they are very common in our area and very difficult to air seal and insulate effectively. Two projects followed a roof-only Exterior Thermal Moisture Management System (ETMMS) process. One project used an interior-only approach to roof air sealing and insulation. The remaining two projects used a deep energy retrofit approach for whole house (foundation wall, above grade wall, roof) air leakage and heat loss reduction. All were asked to provide information regarding project goals, process, and pre and post-blower door test results. Additional air leakage reduction data was provided by several NorthernSTAR Building America industry partners for interior-applied, roof-only modifications on 1-1/2 story homes. The data represents homes in the general market as well as homes that were part of the state of Minnesota weatherization program. A goal was to compare exterior air sealing methods with interior approaches. This pool of data enabled us to compare air tightness data from over 220 homes using similar air seal methods.

Introduction to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John E. Hay

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This Special Issue documents not only the more recent progress made in detecting and attributing changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the observational record, but also in projecting changes in such extremes at regional and local scales. It also deals with the impacts and other consequences and implications of both the historic and anticipated changes in extreme weather and climate events. Impact assessments using both dynamical downscaling and statistical modelling for two tropical cyclones are reported, as well as for storm surge and extreme wave changes. The Special Issue concludes with a consideration of some policy implications and practical applications arising from our relatively robust understanding of how the build up of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere affects weather and climate extremes.

Surficial weathering of iron sulfide mine tailings under semi-arid climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Sarah M; Root, Robert A; Perdrial, Nicolas; Maier, Raina; Chorover, Jon

2014-09-15

Mine wastes introduce anthropogenic weathering profiles to the critical zone that often remain unvegetated for decades after mining cessation. As such, they are vulnerable to wind and water dispersion of particulate matter to adjacent ecosystems and residential communities. In sulfide-rich ore tailings, propagation to depth of the oxidative weathering front controls the depth-variation in speciation of major and trace elements. Despite the prevalence of surficial mine waste deposits in arid regions of the globe, few prior studies have been conducted to resolve the near-surface profile of sulfide ore tailings weathered under semi-arid climate. We investigated relations between gossan oxidative reaction-front propagation and the molecular speciation of iron and sulfur in tailings subjected to weathering under semi-arid climate at an EPA Superfund Site in semi-arid central Arizona (USA). Here we report a multi-method data set combining wet chemical and synchrotron-based X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) methods to resolve the tight coupling of iron (Fe) and sulfur (S) geochemical changes in the top 2 m of tailings. Despite nearly invariant Fe and S concentration with depth (130-140 and 100-120 g kg -1 , respectively), a sharp redox gradient and distinct morphological change was observed within the top 0.5 m, associated with a progressive oxidative alteration of ferrous sulfides to (oxyhydr)oxides and (hydroxy)sulfates. Transformation is nearly complete in surficial samples. Trends in molecular-scale alteration were co-located with a decrease in pH from 7.3 to 2.3, and shifts in Fe and S lability as measured via chemical extraction. Initial weathering products, ferrihydrite and gypsum, transform to schwertmannite, then jarosite-group minerals with an accompanying decrease in pH. Interestingly, thermodynamically stable phases such as goethite and hematite were not detected in any samples, but ferrihydrite was observed even in

Surficial weathering of iron sulfide mine tailings under semi-arid climate

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Sarah M.; Root, Robert A.; Perdrial, Nicolas; Maier, Raina M.; Chorover, Jon

2014-09-01

Mine wastes introduce anthropogenic weathering profiles to the critical zone that often remain unvegetated for decades after mining cessation. As such, they are vulnerable to wind and water dispersion of particulate matter to adjacent ecosystems and residential communities. In sulfide-rich ore tailings, propagation to depth of the oxidative weathering front controls the depth-variation in speciation of major and trace elements. Despite the prevalence of surficial mine waste deposits in arid regions of the globe, few prior studies have been conducted to resolve the near-surface profile of sulfide ore tailings weathered under semi-arid climate. We investigated relations between gossan oxidative reaction-front propagation and the molecular speciation of iron and sulfur in tailings subjected to weathering in a semi-arid climate at an EPA Superfund Site in central Arizona (USA). Here we report a multi-method data set combining wet chemical and synchrotron-based X-ray diffraction (XRD) and X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (XANES) methods to resolve the tight coupling of iron (Fe) and sulfur (S) geochemical changes in the top 2 m of tailings. Despite nearly invariant Fe and S concentration with depth (130-140 and 100-120 g kg-1, respectively), a sharp redox gradient and distinct morphological change was observed within the top 0.5 m, associated with a progressive oxidative alteration of ferrous sulfides to (oxyhydr)oxides and (hydroxy)sulfates. Transformation is nearly complete in surficial samples. Trends in molecular-scale alteration were co-located with a decrease in pH from 7.3 to 2.3, and shifts in Fe and S lability as measured via chemical extraction. Initial weathering products, ferrihydrite and gypsum, transform to schwertmannite, then jarosite-group minerals with an accompanying decrease in pH. Interestingly, thermodynamically stable phases such as goethite and hematite were not detected in any samples, but ferrihydrite was observed even in samples with

The effects of radionuclides in the atmosphere on weather, climate and environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jager, D. de.

1992-10-01

A literature study on the effects of the released radionuclides in the atmosphere on weather, climate and environment are reported. In this report a science outlook of these effects is presented. The emissions generated by the electricity are the central issue. For the global effects the released krypton-85 (half-life time 10,78 years) which are caused by reprocessing factories would take an important role, but for local effects the releasing of short-living isotopes as xenon-133 and xenon-135 produced by nuclear reactors and radon-222 produced by mining activities must be taken into account. The production, emission and distribution of these related important isotopes are discussed, just like air-electric circuits (global), the chemistry of the atmosphere (local) and the consequences of it for the weather, climate and environment on earth. Radionuclides could affect on the development of the thunderstorm, rainfall, cloud formation, air dampness, acid- and aerosol formations and also indirect, for example, for the greenhouse effect and acid rainfall. (author). 133 refs., 22 figs., 11 tabs

Formation of Valley Networks in a Cold and Icy Early Mars Climate: Predictions for Erosion Rates and Channel Morphology

Science.gov (United States)

Cassanelli, J.

2017-12-01

Mars is host to a diverse array of valley networks, systems of linear-to-sinuous depressions which are widely distributed across the surface and which exhibit branching patterns similar to the dendritic drainage patterns of terrestrial fluvial systems. Characteristics of the valley networks are indicative of an origin by fluvial activity, providing among the most compelling evidence for the past presence of flowing liquid water on the surface of Mars. Stratigraphic and crater age dating techniques suggest that the formation of the valley networks occurred predominantly during the early geologic history of Mars ( 3.7 Ga). However, whether the valley networks formed predominantly by rainfall in a relatively warm and wet early Mars climate, or by snowmelt and episodic rainfall in an ambient cold and icy climate, remains disputed. Understanding the formative environment of the valley networks will help distinguish between these warm and cold end-member early Mars climate models. Here we test a conceptual model for channel incision and evolution under cold and icy conditions with a substrate characterized by the presence of an ice-free dry active layer and subjacent ice-cemented regolith, similar to that found in the Antarctic McMurdo Dry Valleys. We implement numerical thermal models, quantitative erosion and transport estimates, and morphometric analyses in order to outline predictions for (1) the precise nature and structure of the substrate, (2) fluvial erosion/incision rates, and (3) channel morphology. Model predictions are compared against morphologic and morphometric observational data to evaluate consistency with the assumed cold climate scenario. In the cold climate scenario, the substrate is predicted to be characterized by a kilometers-thick globally-continuous cryosphere below a 50-100 meter thick desiccated ice-free zone. Initial results suggest that, with the predicted substrate structure, fluvial channel erosion and morphology in a cold early Mars

Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Carretier, Sébastien; Goddéris, Yves; Martinez, Javier; Reich, Martin; Martinod, Pierre

2018-03-01

The role of mountain uplift in the evolution of the global climate over geological times is controversial. At the heart of this debate is the capacity of rapid denudation to drive silicate weathering, which consumes CO2. Here we present the results of a 3-D model that couples erosion and weathering during mountain uplift, in which, for the first time, the weathered material is traced during its stochastic transport from the hillslopes to the mountain outlet. To explore the response of weathering fluxes to progressively cooler and drier climatic conditions, we run model simulations accounting for a decrease in temperature with or without modifications in the rainfall pattern based on a simple orographic model. At this stage, the model does not simulate the deep water circulation, the precipitation of secondary minerals, variations in the pH, below-ground pCO2, and the chemical affinity of the water in contact with minerals. Consequently, the predicted silicate weathering fluxes probably represent a maximum, although the predicted silicate weathering rates are within the range of silicate and total weathering rates estimated from field data. In all cases, the erosion rate increases during mountain uplift, which thins the regolith and produces a hump in the weathering rate evolution. This model thus predicts that the weathering outflux reaches a peak and then falls, consistent with predictions of previous 1-D models. By tracking the pathways of particles, the model can also consider how lateral river erosion drives mass wasting and the temporary storage of colluvial deposits on the valley sides. This reservoir is comprised of fresh material that has a residence time ranging from several years up to several thousand years. During this period, the weathering of colluvium appears to sustain the mountain weathering flux. The relative weathering contribution of colluvium depends on the area covered by regolith on the hillslopes. For mountains sparsely covered by regolith

Global land-atmosphere coupling associated with cold climate processes

OpenAIRE

Dutra, Emanuel, 1983-

2011-01-01

Tese de doutoramento, Ciências Geofísicas e da Geoinformação (Meteorologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2011 This dissertation constitutes an assessment of the role of cold processes, associated with snow cover, in controlling the land-atmosphere coupling. The work was based on model simulations, including offline simulations with the land surface model HTESSEL, and coupled atmosphere simulations with the EC-EARTH climate model. A revised snow scheme was developed and t...

The representation of low-level clouds during the West African monsoon in weather and climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Kniffka, Anke; Hannak, Lisa; Knippertz, Peter; Fink, Andreas

2016-04-01

The West African monsoon is one of the most important large-scale circulation features in the tropics and the associated seasonal rainfalls are crucial to rain-fed agriculture and water resources for hundreds of millions of people. However, numerical weather and climate models still struggle to realistically represent salient features of the monsoon across a wide range of scales. Recently it has been shown that substantial errors in radiation and clouds exist in the southern parts of West Africa (8°W-8°E, 5-10°N) during summer. This area is characterised by strong low-level jets associated with the formation of extensive ultra-low stratus clouds. Often persisting long after sunrise, these clouds have a substantial impact on the radiation budget at the surface and thus the diurnal evolution of the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here we present some first results from a detailed analysis of the representation of these clouds and the associated PBL features across a range of weather and climate models. Recent climate model simulations for the period 1991-2010 run in the framework of the Year of Tropical Convection (YOTC) offer a great opportunity for this analysis. The models are those used for the latest Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but for YOTC the model output has a much better temporal resolution, allowing to resolve the diurnal cycle, and includes diabatic terms, allowing to much better assess physical reasons for errors in low-level temperature, moisture and thus cloudiness. These more statistical climate model analyses are complemented by experiments using ICON (Icosahedral non-hydrostatic general circulation model), the new numerical weather prediction model of the German Weather Service and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. ICON allows testing sensitivities to model resolution and numerical schemes. These model simulations are validated against (re-)analysis data, satellite observations (e.g. CM SAF cloud and

Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Mann, Michael E; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A; Miller, Sonya K; Coumou, Dim

2017-03-27

Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6-8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art ("CMIP5") historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability.

Divergence in Forest-Type Response to Climate and Weather: Evidence for Regional Links Between Forest-Type Evenness and Net Primary Productivity

Science.gov (United States)

Bradford, J.B.

2011-01-01

Climate change is altering long-term climatic conditions and increasing the magnitude of weather fluctuations. Assessing the consequences of these changes for terrestrial ecosystems requires understanding how different vegetation types respond to climate and weather. This study examined 20 years of regional-scale remotely sensed net primary productivity (NPP) in forests of the northern Lake States to identify how the relationship between NPP and climate or weather differ among forest types, and if NPP patterns are influenced by landscape-scale evenness of forest-type abundance. These results underscore the positive relationship between temperature and NPP. Importantly, these results indicate significant differences among broadly defined forest types in response to both climate and weather. Essentially all weather variables that were strongly related to annual NPP displayed significant differences among forest types, suggesting complementarity in response to environmental fluctuations. In addition, this study found that forest-type evenness (within 8 ?? 8 km2 areas) is positively related to long-term NPP mean and negatively related to NPP variability, suggesting that NPP in pixels with greater forest-type evenness is both higher and more stable through time. This is landscape- to subcontinental-scale evidence of a relationship between primary productivity and one measure of biological diversity. These results imply that anthropogenic or natural processes that influence the proportional abundance of forest types within landscapes may influence long-term productivity patterns. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

Science.gov (United States)

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo Iacono, Giovanni; Armstrong, Ben; Fleming, Lora E; Elson, Richard; Kovats, Sari; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Nichols, Gordon L

2017-06-01

Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis) remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM) and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE). In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae); TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter). Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior), reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias, healthcare access

Challenges in developing methods for quantifying the effects of weather and climate on water-associated diseases: A systematic review.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Lo Iacono

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Infectious diseases attributable to unsafe water supply, sanitation and hygiene (e.g. Cholera, Leptospirosis, Giardiasis remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality, especially in low-income countries. Climate and weather factors are known to affect the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases and statistical and mathematical modelling are continuously developing to investigate the impact of weather and climate on water-associated diseases. There have been little critical analyses of the methodological approaches. Our objective is to review and summarize statistical and modelling methods used to investigate the effects of weather and climate on infectious diseases associated with water, in order to identify limitations and knowledge gaps in developing of new methods. We conducted a systematic review of English-language papers published from 2000 to 2015. Search terms included concepts related to water-associated diseases, weather and climate, statistical, epidemiological and modelling methods. We found 102 full text papers that met our criteria and were included in the analysis. The most commonly used methods were grouped in two clusters: process-based models (PBM and time series and spatial epidemiology (TS-SE. In general, PBM methods were employed when the bio-physical mechanism of the pathogen under study was relatively well known (e.g. Vibrio cholerae; TS-SE tended to be used when the specific environmental mechanisms were unclear (e.g. Campylobacter. Important data and methodological challenges emerged, with implications for surveillance and control of water-associated infections. The most common limitations comprised: non-inclusion of key factors (e.g. biological mechanism, demographic heterogeneity, human behavior, reporting bias, poor data quality, and collinearity in exposures. Furthermore, the methods often did not distinguish among the multiple sources of time-lags (e.g. patient physiology, reporting bias

Tales of future weather

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

2015-01-01

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

Powertrain preheating system of tracked hybrid electric vehicle in cold weather

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Rui; Wang, Yichun; Feng, Chaoqing; Zhang, Xilong

2015-01-01

In order to make sure that the heavy duty tracked vehicle can work in various conditions, especially severe cold weather, preheating system of powertrain should be adopted, and a novel preheating system is presented for the tracked hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) in which heat is generated by the low-speed drive motor. The new preheating system can meet the need of cold start without adding any additional device. The characteristic of heat generation by motor is tested when the rotor of motor is rotated in very low speed. The heat loss from power cabin to external environment has been simulated, and the relevant test has been done to verify the simulation results. Combining the characteristic of heat generation and heat loss situation about preheating system, the heat transfer model of preheating system was implemented by MATLAB. The total energy required for preheating in different ambient temperature was calculated by this model. The results showed that: the minimum heating power was 70 kW and energy required was about 180 MJ when the HEV worked in −46 °C. If lithium ferrous phosphate (LFP) battery was used in power system, the minimum battery capacity is about 290 A h. - Highlights: • A novel preheating method was proposed for heavy duty tracked HEV. • Thermal energy in preheating system is produced by the PMSM in driving system. • This method can achieve preheating target by its own components without any adding. • Analyzing low temperature performance of power battery and select its capacity.

Climate-change effects on soils: Accelerated weathering, soil carbon and elemental cycling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qafoku, Nikolla

2015-04-01

Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2, and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils are the subject of active current investigations, with great concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries, identifies key research needs, and highlights opportunities offered by the climate-change effects on soils.

Durability and smart condition assessment of ultra-high performance concrete in cold climates.

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-31

The goals of this study were to develop ecological ultra-high performance concrete (UHPC) with local materials and supplementary cementitious materials and to evaluate the long-term performance of UHPC in cold climates using effective mechanical test...

Ca isotopes, chemical weathering, and geomorphic controls on long-term climate

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, J.; Jacobson, A. D.; Holmden, C. E.; Craw, D.

2009-12-01

Calcium isotope geochemistry (δ44Ca) offers a unique opportunity to directly quantify proportions of riverine Ca originating from silicate versus carbonate weathering, which is essential for understanding how geomorphic processes affecting landscape evolution, such as tectonic uplift and glaciation, influence the long-term cycling of atmospheric CO2. We measured the elemental and δ44Ca chemistry of river and rock samples from the New Zealand Southern Alps. In combination with our geochemical data, we used runoff and suspended sediment fluxes to elucidate relationships between chemical weathering, mechanical erosion, and long-term climate. The S. Alps have uniform bedrock chemistry but significant tectonic and climatic gradients. West of the main topographic divide, watersheds drain schist and experience high runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. East of the main divide, watersheds drain greywacke or schist and experience lower runoff, uplift, and erosion rates. Glaciated watersheds with high erosion rates are present throughout the mountain range. Both schist and greywacke contain up to 3% metamorphic and hydrothermal calcite. Waters exhibit two-component mixing between calcite and silicate end-members when plotted as δ44Ca versus Ca/Sr. Scatter about the mixing curve is generally smaller than the analytical uncertainty of the measurements and likely reflects variability of the end-member compositions rather than fractionation. We used the mixing relationships to calculate percentages of Ca from silicate weathering. Rivers draining greywacke average 27.6% of Ca from silicate weathering with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 41.8 and 19.5%, respectively. Rivers draining schist average 9.8% with glaciated and non-glaciated watersheds yielding 17.7 and 3.9%, respectively. Although Ca fluxes are larger west of the main divide where erosion and runoff are higher, the percentage of Ca from silicate weathering is smaller. Hence, long-term atmospheric CO2

Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

Science.gov (United States)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

2015-12-01

The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

IEA HPT ANNEX 41 – Cold climate heat pumps: US country report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Groll, Eckhard A. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States); Baxter, Van D. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2017-08-01

In 2012 the International Energy Agency (IEA) Heat Pump Programme (now the Heat Pump Technologies (HPT) program) established Annex 41 to investigate technology solutions to improve performance of heat pumps for cold climates. Four IEA HPT member countries are participating in the Annex – Austria, Canada, Japan, and the United States (U.S.). The principal focus of Annex 41 is on electrically driven air-source heat pumps (ASHP) since that system type has the lowest installation cost of all heat pump alternatives. They also have the most significant performance challenges given their inherent efficiency and capacity issues at cold outdoor temperatures. Availability of ASHPs with improved low ambient performance would help bring about a much stronger heat pump market presence in cold areas, which today rely predominantly on fossil fuel furnace heating systems.

Warfighter Physiological Status Monitoring (WPSM): Energy Balance and Thermal Status During a 10-Day Cold Weather U.S. Marine Corps Infantry Officer Course Field Exercise

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Hoyt, Reed

2001-01-01

...) during a 10-day field exercise (FEX) at Quantico, VA. Question: Does intense physical activity, limited sleep, and restricted rations, combined with cold/damp weather, result in excessively negative energy balance and hypothermia? Methods...

Exploring the health context : a multimethod approach to climate change adaptation evaluation

OpenAIRE

Böckmann, Melanie

2015-01-01

Climate change is a major environmental Public Health issue of the 21st century. Extreme heat and cold, weather events such as flooding or storms, disease vector distribution changes, and increased pathogen loads in water might all put human health at risk. To protect health from inevitable changes, climate change adaptation strategies are implemented at local, national, and global level. Are these measures effectively reducing health risks? This dissertation explores multiple methods to eval...

Internet Weather Source

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The National Weather Service (NWS) National Telecommunications Gateway provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its...

Variations in pollen counts largely explained by climate and weather

Science.gov (United States)

Jung, Stephan; Damialis, Athanasios; Estrella, Nicole; Jochner, Susanne; Menzel, Annette

2017-04-01

The interaction between climate and vegetation is well studied within phenology. Climatic / weather conditions affect e.g. flowering date, length of vegetation period, start and end of the season and the plant growth. Besides phenological stages also pollen counts can be used to investigate the interaction between climate and vegetation. Pollen emission and distribution is directly influenced by temperature, wind speed, wind direction and humidity/precipitation. The objective of this project is to study daily/sub daily variations in pollen counts of woody and herbaceous plant species along an altitudinal gradient with different climatic conditions during the vegetation period. Measurements of pollen were carried out with three volumetric pollen traps installed at the altitudes 450 m a.s.l (Freising), 700 m a.s.l (Garmisch-Partenkirchen), and 2700 m a.s.l (Schneefernerhaus near Zugspitze) representing gradient from north of Munich towards the highest mountain of Germany. Airborne pollen concentrations were recorded during the years 2014-2015. The altitudinal range of these three stations accompanied by different microclimates ("space for time approach") can be used as proxy for climate change and to assess its impact on pollen counts and thus allergenic risk for human health. For example the pollen season is shortened and pollen amount is reduced at higher sites. For detailed investigations pollen of the species Plantago, Quercus, Poaceae, Cupressaceae, Cyperacea, Betula and Platanus were chosen, because those are found in appropriate quantities. In general, pollen captured in the pollen traps to a certain extent has its origin from the immediate surrounding. Thus, it mirrors local species distribution. But furthermore the distance of pollen transport is also based on (micro-) climatic conditions, land cover and topography. The pollen trap shortly below the summit of Zugspitze (Schneefernerhaus) has an alpine environment without vegetation nearby. Therefore, this

Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C; Meehl, Gerald A

2017-06-19

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature and precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity and frequency over recent decades. These changes have been linked to human-induced climate change, while the degree to which climate change impacts an individual extreme climate event (ECE) is more difficult to quantify. Rapid progress in event attribution has recently been made through improved understanding of observed and simulated climate variability, methods for event attribution and advances in numerical modelling. Attribution for extreme temperature events is stronger compared with other event types, notably those related to the hydrological cycle. Recent advances in the understanding of ECEs, both in observations and their representation in state-of-the-art climate models, open new opportunities for assessing their effect on human and natural systems. Improved spatial resolution in global climate models and advances in statistical and dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate spatial and temporal scales. Together with the continued development of Earth System Models that simulate biogeochemical cycles and interactions with the biosphere at increasing complexity, these make it possible to develop a mechanistic understanding of how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning and adaptation capabilities. Limitations in the observational network, both for physical climate system parameters and even more so for long-term ecological monitoring, have hampered progress in understanding bio-physical interactions across a range of scales. New opportunities for assessing how ECEs modulate ecosystem structure and functioning arise from better scientific understanding of ECEs coupled with technological advances in observing systems and instrumentation.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events

Temporal associations between weather and headache: analysis by empirical mode decomposition.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Albert C Yang

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Patients frequently report that weather changes trigger headache or worsen existing headache symptoms. Recently, the method of empirical mode decomposition (EMD has been used to delineate temporal relationships in certain diseases, and we applied this technique to identify intrinsic weather components associated with headache incidence data derived from a large-scale epidemiological survey of headache in the Greater Taipei area. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The study sample consisted of 52 randomly selected headache patients. The weather time-series parameters were detrended by the EMD method into a set of embedded oscillatory components, i.e. intrinsic mode functions (IMFs. Multiple linear regression models with forward stepwise methods were used to analyze the temporal associations between weather and headaches. We found no associations between the raw time series of weather variables and headache incidence. For decomposed intrinsic weather IMFs, temperature, sunshine duration, humidity, pressure, and maximal wind speed were associated with headache incidence during the cold period, whereas only maximal wind speed was associated during the warm period. In analyses examining all significant weather variables, IMFs derived from temperature and sunshine duration data accounted for up to 33.3% of the variance in headache incidence during the cold period. The association of headache incidence and weather IMFs in the cold period coincided with the cold fronts. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using EMD analysis, we found a significant association between headache and intrinsic weather components, which was not detected by direct comparisons of raw weather data. Contributing weather parameters may vary in different geographic regions and different seasons.

Analysis of typical meteorological years in different climates of China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Liu; Lam, Joseph C.; Liu, Jiaping

2007-01-01

Typical meteorological years (TMYs) for 60 cities in the five major climatic zones (severe cold, cold, hot summer and cold winter, hot summer and warm winter, mild) in China were investigated. Long term (1971-2000) measured weather data such as dry bulb and dew point temperatures, wind speed and global solar radiation were gathered and analysed. A total of seven climatic indices were used to select the 12 typical meteorological months (TMMs) that made up the TMY for each city. In general, the cumulative distribution functions of the TMMs selected tended to follow their long term counterparts quite well. There was no persistent trend in any particular years being more representative than the others, though 1978 and 1982 tended to be picked most often. This paper presents the work and its findings. Future work on the assessment of TMYs in building energy simulation is also discussed

Constraining climate sensitivity and continental versus seafloor weathering using an inverse geological carbon cycle model.

Science.gov (United States)

Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Catling, David C

2017-05-22

The relative influences of tectonics, continental weathering and seafloor weathering in controlling the geological carbon cycle are unknown. Here we develop a new carbon cycle model that explicitly captures the kinetics of seafloor weathering to investigate carbon fluxes and the evolution of atmospheric CO 2 and ocean pH since 100 Myr ago. We compare model outputs to proxy data, and rigorously constrain model parameters using Bayesian inverse methods. Assuming our forward model is an accurate representation of the carbon cycle, to fit proxies the temperature dependence of continental weathering must be weaker than commonly assumed. We find that 15-31 °C (1σ) surface warming is required to double the continental weathering flux, versus 3-10 °C in previous work. In addition, continental weatherability has increased 1.7-3.3 times since 100 Myr ago, demanding explanation by uplift and sea-level changes. The average Earth system climate sensitivity is  K (1σ) per CO 2 doubling, which is notably higher than fast-feedback estimates. These conclusions are robust to assumptions about outgassing, modern fluxes and seafloor weathering kinetics.

Life expectancy, adapted technology and cold climate conditions : key issues for wind turbines in Canada; Duree de vie, adaptation technologique et conditions froides : un enjeu majeur pour les eoliennes au Canada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaumel, J.L.; Nanta, R. [Quebec Univ., Rimouski, PQ (Canada); Golbeck, P. [Peter Golbeck Consultant, Rimouski, PQ (Canada)

2007-07-01

This presentation discussed the service life of wind turbines, particularly those operating in cold climates. A map of Quebec was included to indicate the potential sites for an additional 450 MW of wind energy capacity for northern Quebec, near James Bay. Different types of wind turbines were described in terms of their size and power, including those without transformers. It was noted that a 30 per cent growth in the wind power industry is anticipated annually. However, there is currently a lack of wind turbines. A 2 MW wind turbine costs $3 million and major reinvestment is needed after 10 years of service life due to component wear. It was noted that a gear box lasts less than 15 years and other generator components also require maintenance. The primary reasons for increased risk and cost include equipment failures due to component fatigue, cold weather operation, lack of maintenance and bad design for winter conditions. The components affected by failures include gearboxes, generators, pitch controls, and hydraulics. Since the industry is relatively new, there are no replacement parts available for these components and cranage costs are high. In addition, since Canada's entry into the wind industry is also relatively new, there is a lack of machine testing in Canada as well as a lack of understanding of energy capacity and the effects of cold weather. Overproduction also occurs frequently. tabs., figs.

Global land-atmosphere coupling associated with cold climate processes

Science.gov (United States)

Dutra, Emanuel

This dissertation constitutes an assessment of the role of cold processes, associated with snow cover, in controlling the land-atmosphere coupling. The work was based on model simulations, including offline simulations with the land surface model HTESSEL, and coupled atmosphere simulations with the EC-EARTH climate model. A revised snow scheme was developed and tested in HTESSEL and EC-EARTH. The snow scheme is currently operational at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts integrated forecast system, and in the default configuration of EC-EARTH. The improved representation of the snowpack dynamics in HTESSEL resulted in improvements in the near surface temperature simulations of EC-EARTH. The new snow scheme development was complemented with the option of multi-layer version that showed its potential in modeling thick snowpacks. A key process was the snow thermal insulation that led to significant improvements of the surface water and energy balance components. Similar findings were observed when coupling the snow scheme to lake ice, where lake ice duration was significantly improved. An assessment on the snow cover sensitivity to horizontal resolution, parameterizations and atmospheric forcing within HTESSEL highlighted the role of the atmospheric forcing accuracy and snowpack parameterizations in detriment of horizontal resolution over flat regions. A set of experiments with and without free snow evolution was carried out with EC-EARTH to assess the impact of the interannual variability of snow cover on near surface and soil temperatures. It was found that snow cover interannual variability explained up to 60% of the total interannual variability of near surface temperature over snow covered regions. Although these findings are model dependent, the results showed consistency with previously published work. Furthermore, the detailed validation of the snow dynamics simulations in HTESSEL and EC-EARTH guarantees consistency of the results.

Water-borne diseases and extreme weather events in Cambodia: review of impacts and implications of climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, Grace I; McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Yoonhee; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven; Chan, Vibol

2014-12-23

Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

Water-Borne Diseases and Extreme Weather Events in Cambodia: Review of Impacts and Implications of Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Grace I. Davies

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Cambodia is prone to extreme weather events, especially floods, droughts and typhoons. Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and intensity of such events. The Cambodian population is highly vulnerable to the impacts of these events due to poverty; malnutrition; agricultural dependence; settlements in flood-prone areas, and public health, governance and technological limitations. Yet little is known about the health impacts of extreme weather events in Cambodia. Given the extremely low adaptive capacity of the population, this is a crucial knowledge gap. A literature review of the health impacts of floods, droughts and typhoons in Cambodia was conducted, with regional and global information reviewed where Cambodia-specific literature was lacking. Water-borne diseases are of particular concern in Cambodia, in the face of extreme weather events and climate change, due to, inter alia, a high pre-existing burden of diseases such as diarrhoeal illness and a lack of improved sanitation infrastructure in rural areas. A time-series analysis under quasi-Poisson distribution was used to evaluate the association between floods and diarrhoeal disease incidence in Cambodian children between 2001 and 2012 in 16 Cambodian provinces. Floods were significantly associated with increased diarrhoeal disease in two provinces, while the analysis conducted suggested a possible protective effect from toilets and piped water. Addressing the specific, local pre-existing vulnerabilities is vital to promoting population health resilience and strengthening adaptive capacity to extreme weather events and climate change in Cambodia.

Mitigating Climate Change with Earth Orbital Sunshades

Science.gov (United States)

Coverstone, Victoria; Johnson, Les

2015-01-01

An array of rotating sunshades based on emerging solar sail technology will be deployed in a novel Earth orbit to provide near-continuous partial shading of the Earth, reducing the heat input to the atmosphere by blocking a small percentage of the incoming sunlight, and mitigating local weather effects of anticipated climate change over the next century. The technology will provide local cooling relief during extreme heat events (and heating relief during extreme cold events) thereby saving human lives, agriculture, livestock, water and energy needs. A synthesis of the solar sail design, the sails' operational modes, and the selected orbit combine to provide local weather modification.

CLIMATE AS A RISK FACTOR FOR TOURISM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

ÁKOS NÉMETH

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Weather and climate risk factors for tourism are surveyed and illustrated with regard to the expected climate changes in Hungary. These changes are not at all advantageous and which affect the business in question both directly and indirectly. These are the summer resort tourism (characterised by bioclimatic indices. Green tourism is the next one to characterise, including skiing, mountain climbing and eco-tourism, as well. Here both day-to-day weather extremes and long-lasting effects on the biota (e.g. drought, or inundation for plain-area eco-tourism. Last, but not least the urban (cultural- and shopping- tourism is presented, since the large towns exhibit their special climate and different risks. The paper intends to specify these meteorological factors and effects also in terms of the different types of touristic activities. The general statements on the effect of weather and climate on tourism are illustrated by a few individual parameters and also by the so called Physiologically Equivalent Temperature. Annual and diurnal course of this parameter are presented, together with various trends in this variable at different sites and in different (hot and cold extremities of the occurring values. Other examples, helping the tourism industry are presented in various climate conditions of the country. They include high precipitation and high relative humidity information. The paper also lists the possible adaptation measures to extreme events and also their likely changes in time.

Strategies for Effective Implementation of Science Models into 6-9 Grade Classrooms on Climate, Weather, and Energy Topics

Science.gov (United States)

Yarker, M. B.; Stanier, C. O.; Forbes, C.; Park, S.

2011-12-01

As atmospheric scientists, we depend on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. We use them to predict weather patterns, to understand external forcing on the atmosphere, and as evidence to make claims about atmospheric phenomenon. Therefore, it is important that we adequately prepare atmospheric science students to use computer models. However, the public should also be aware of what models are in order to understand scientific claims about atmospheric issues, such as climate change. Although familiar with weather forecasts on television and the Internet, the general public does not understand the process of using computer models to generate a weather and climate forecasts. As a result, the public often misunderstands claims scientists make about their daily weather as well as the state of climate change. Since computer models are the best method we have to forecast the future of our climate, scientific models and modeling should be a topic covered in K-12 classrooms as part of a comprehensive science curriculum. According to the National Science Education Standards, teachers are encouraged to science models into the classroom as a way to aid in the understanding of the nature of science. However, there is very little description of what constitutes a science model, so the term is often associated with scale models. Therefore, teachers often use drawings or scale representations of physical entities, such as DNA, the solar system, or bacteria. In other words, models used in classrooms are often used as visual representations, but the purpose of science models is often overlooked. The implementation of a model-based curriculum in the science classroom can be an effective way to prepare students to think critically, problem solve, and make informed decisions as a contributing member of society. However, there are few resources available to help teachers implement science models into the science curriculum effectively. Therefore, this research project looks at

Residential Cold Climate Heat Pump (CCHP) w/Variable Speed Technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Messmer, Craig S. [Unico, Inc., Arnold, MO (United States)

2016-09-30

This report summarizes the results of a three year program awarded to Unico, Inc. to commercialize a residential cold climate heat pump. Several designs were investigated. Compressors were selected using analysis from Oakridge National Laboratories followed by prototype construction and lab testing in a specially built environmental chamber capable of reaching -30°F. The initial design utilized two variable speed compressors in series with very good capacity results and acceptable efficiency at very cold temperatures. The design was then modified to reduce cost and complexity by redesigning the system using three dual-stage compressors: two in parallel followed by one in series. Extensive testing found significant challenge with oil management, reliability, weight and cost which prevented the system from being fully commercialized. Further analysis of other conceptual designs indicated that these challenges could be overcome in the future.

Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer A Curtis

Full Text Available We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.

Colluvial deposits as a possible weathering reservoir in uplifting mountains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Carretier

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The role of mountain uplift in the evolution of the global climate over geological times is controversial. At the heart of this debate is the capacity of rapid denudation to drive silicate weathering, which consumes CO2. Here we present the results of a 3-D model that couples erosion and weathering during mountain uplift, in which, for the first time, the weathered material is traced during its stochastic transport from the hillslopes to the mountain outlet. To explore the response of weathering fluxes to progressively cooler and drier climatic conditions, we run model simulations accounting for a decrease in temperature with or without modifications in the rainfall pattern based on a simple orographic model. At this stage, the model does not simulate the deep water circulation, the precipitation of secondary minerals, variations in the pH, below-ground pCO2, and the chemical affinity of the water in contact with minerals. Consequently, the predicted silicate weathering fluxes probably represent a maximum, although the predicted silicate weathering rates are within the range of silicate and total weathering rates estimated from field data. In all cases, the erosion rate increases during mountain uplift, which thins the regolith and produces a hump in the weathering rate evolution. This model thus predicts that the weathering outflux reaches a peak and then falls, consistent with predictions of previous 1-D models. By tracking the pathways of particles, the model can also consider how lateral river erosion drives mass wasting and the temporary storage of colluvial deposits on the valley sides. This reservoir is comprised of fresh material that has a residence time ranging from several years up to several thousand years. During this period, the weathering of colluvium appears to sustain the mountain weathering flux. The relative weathering contribution of colluvium depends on the area covered by regolith on the hillslopes. For mountains

Case report of cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis after chemoradiotherapy with cisplatin

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kindts, Isabelle; Stellamans, Karin; Planckaert, Nikie; Goethals, Laurence [AZ Groeninge Hospital, Department of Radiation Oncology, Kortrijk (Belgium); Bonny, Michiel [AZ Groeninge Hospital, Department of Dermatology, Kortrijk (Belgium)

2014-08-15

The radiation recall reaction (RRR) is an inflammatory reaction that occurs in previously irradiated areas. The phenomenon is probably due to an idiosyncratic hypersensitivity reaction, in which a second agent can recall the inflammatory reaction. This case report documents a cold-weather-induced radiation recall dermatitis (RRD). We observed a severe RRD in a patient after chemoradiotherapy treatment with cisplatin for a nasopharyngeal carcinoma, precipitated by cold temperatures, which developed 9 days after completion of therapy. In the medical literature, RRD following extreme cold temperatures seems to be a peculiar event. Until further information on the interaction is available, future studies on combined chemotherapy with cisplatin should be carefully monitored and any side effects clearly documented. This case suggests that environmental conditions may play a contributing role in the development of RRD. This case also implies that neither fraction size nor total radiation dose is a determining factor in the development of the dermatologic reaction. (orig.) [German] Die ''Radiation-Recall-Reaktion'' (RRR) ist eine Entzuendungsreaktion, die in zuvor bestrahlten Bereichen auftritt. Das Phaenomen wird wahrscheinlich durch eine spezifische Ueberempfindlichkeitsreaktion verursacht, bei der ein zweites Agens die Entzuendungsreaktion hervorruft. Dieser Fallbericht beschreibt eine kaltwetterinduzierte RR-Hautentzuendung. Wir beobachteten bei dem Patienten nach einer Radiochemotherapie mit Cisplatin aufgrund eines Nasopharynxkarzinoms eine heftige RR-Dermatitis (RRD) aufgrund kalter Temperaturen, die sich 9 Tage nach Therapiebeendigung entwickelte. In der medizinischen Literatur scheint eine RRD infolge extrem kalter Temperaturen ein besonderes Ereignis. Bis weitere Informationen zu der Interaktion verfuegbar sind, sollten zukuenftige Studien zur Kombinationstherapie mit Cisplatin sorgfaeltig ueberwacht und Nebenwirkungen eindeutig dokumentiert

The Effect of Thermal Mass on Annual Heat Load and Thermal Comfort in Cold Climate Construction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stevens, Vanessa; Kotol, Martin; Grunau, Bruno

2016-01-01

been shown to reduce the annual heating demand. However, few studies exist regarding the effects of thermal mass in cold climates. The purpose of this research is to determine the effect of high thermal mass on the annual heat demand and thermal comfort in a typical Alaskan residence using energy......Thermal mass in building construction refers to a building material's ability to absorb and release heat based on changing environmental conditions. In building design, materials with high thermal mass used in climates with a diurnal temperature swing around the interior set-point temperature have...... modeling software. The model simulations show that increased thermal mass can decrease the risk of summer overheating in Alaskan residences. They also show that increased thermal mass does not significantly decrease the annual heat load in residences located in cold climates. These results indicate...

Climate and weather of the Sun-Earth system (CAWSES) highlights from a priority program

CERN Document Server

Lübken, Franz-Josef

2012-01-01

CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) is the most important scientific program of SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). CAWSES has triggered a scientific priority program within the German Research Foundation for a period of 6 years. Approximately 30 scientific institutes and 120 scientists were involved in Germany with strong links to international partners. The priority program focuses on solar influence on climate, atmospheric coupling processes, and space climatology. This book summarizes the most important results from this program covering some impor

Weather-centric rangeland revegetation planning

Science.gov (United States)

Hardegree, Stuart P.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Brunson, Mark W.; Germino, Matthew; Hegewisch, Katherine C.; Moffet, Corey A.; Pilliod, David S.; Roundy, Bruce A.; Boehm, Alex R.; Meredith, Gwendwr R.

2018-01-01

Invasive annual weeds negatively impact ecosystem services and pose a major conservation threat on semiarid rangelands throughout the western United States. Rehabilitation of these rangelands is challenging due to interannual climate and subseasonal weather variability that impacts seed germination, seedling survival and establishment, annual weed dynamics, wildfire frequency, and soil stability. Rehabilitation and restoration outcomes could be improved by adopting a weather-centric approach that uses the full spectrum of available site-specific weather information from historical observations, seasonal climate forecasts, and climate-change projections. Climate data can be used retrospectively to interpret success or failure of past seedings by describing seasonal and longer-term patterns of environmental variability subsequent to planting. A more detailed evaluation of weather impacts on site conditions may yield more flexible adaptive-management strategies for rangeland restoration and rehabilitation, as well as provide estimates of transition probabilities between desirable and undesirable vegetation states. Skillful seasonal climate forecasts could greatly improve the cost efficiency of management treatments by limiting revegetation activities to time periods where forecasts suggest higher probabilities of successful seedling establishment. Climate-change projections are key to the application of current environmental models for development of mitigation and adaptation strategies and for management practices that require a multidecadal planning horizon. Adoption of new weather technology will require collaboration between land managers and revegetation specialists and modifications to the way we currently plan and conduct rangeland rehabilitation and restoration in the Intermountain West.

Weathering and weathering rates of natural stone

Science.gov (United States)

Winkler, Erhard M.

1987-06-01

Physical and chemical weathering were studied as separate processes in the past. Recent research, however, shows that most processes are physicochemical in nature. The rates at which calcite and silica weather by dissolution are dependent on the regional and local climatic environment. The weathering of silicate rocks leaves discolored margins and rinds, a function of the rocks' permeability and of the climatic parameters. Salt action, the greatest disruptive factor, is complex and not yet fully understood in all its phases, but some of the causes of disruption are crystallization pressure, hydration pressure, and hygroscopic attraction of excess moisture. The decay of marble is complex, an interaction between disolution, crack-corrosion, and expansion-contraction cycies triggered by the release of residual stresses. Thin spalls of granites commonly found near the street level of buildings are generally caused by a combination of stress relief and salt action. To study and determine weathering rates of a variety of commercial stones, the National Bureau of Standards erected a Stone Exposure Test Wall in 1948. Of the many types of stone represented, only a few fossiliferous limestones permit a valid measurement of surface reduction in a polluted urban environment.

Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). Part 2. Individual Perception of Climate Extremes in Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galeotti, M.; Goria, A.; Spantidaki, E.; Mombrini, P.

2004-02-01

This paper focuses on the results of the research work carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) within the WISE project. This project aims at investigating the effects and the impacts of extreme weather events, particularly very warm summers, mild winters and storms, on the socio-economic systems of European countries. The output consists of a series of empirical studies, both of quantitative and qualitative descriptive nature. The work of FEEM in the WISE project covers the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate extremes on the socio-economic system in Italy and the analysis of individuals' perception of climate extremes based on results from individuals' surveys. In this paper is considered the study of the perception of weather impacts through questionnaire survey to the general public. With regard to the individuals' perception survey, a sample of 300 individuals were interviewed by telephone: 150 extracted from the North of Italy and 150 from the South of Italy. Individuals were asked general questions about their perception of climate extremes, and about the impacts of weather extremes on their daily habits at work, at home, in their leisure activities, on their transport patterns, on their health and tourism choices

A Meteorological Supersite for Aviation and Cold Weather Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Gultepe, Ismail; Agelin-Chaab, M.; Komar, J.; Elfstrom, G.; Boudala, F.; Zhou, B.

2018-05-01

The goal of this study is to better understand atmospheric boundary layer processes and parameters, and to evaluate physical processes for aviation applications using data from a supersite observing site. Various meteorological sensors, including a weather and environmental unmanned aerial vehicle (WE-UAV), and a fog and snow tower (FSOS) observations are part of the project. The PanAm University of Ontario Institute of Technology (UOIT) Meteorological Supersite (PUMS) observations are being collected from April 2015 to date. The FSOS tower gathers observations related to rain, snow, fog, and visibility, aerosols, solar radiation, and wind and turbulence, as well as surface and sky temperature. The FSOSs are located at three locations at about 450-800 m away from the PUMS supersite. The WE-UAV measurements representing aerosol, wind speed and direction, as well as temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH) are provided during clear weather conditions. Other measurements at the PUMS site include cloud backscattering profiles from CL51 ceilometer, MWR observations of liquid water content (LWC), T, and RH, and Microwave Rain Radar (MRR) reflectivity profile, as well as the present weather type, snow water depth, icing rate, 3D-ultrasonic wind and turbulence, and conventional meteorological observations from compact weather stations, e.g., WXTs. The results based on important weather event studies, representing fog, snow, rain, blowing snow, wind gust, planetary boundary layer (PBL) wind research for UAV, and icing conditions are given. The microphysical parameterizations and analysis processes for each event are provided, but the results should not be generalized for all weather events and be used cautiously. Results suggested that integrated observing systems based on data from a supersite as well as satellite sites can provide better information applicable to aviation meteorology, including PBL weather research, validation of numerical weather model predictions, and

Web processing service for climate impact and extreme weather event analyses. Flyingpigeon (Version 1.0)

Science.gov (United States)

Hempelmann, Nils; Ehbrecht, Carsten; Alvarez-Castro, Carmen; Brockmann, Patrick; Falk, Wolfgang; Hoffmann, Jörg; Kindermann, Stephan; Koziol, Ben; Nangini, Cathy; Radanovics, Sabine; Vautard, Robert; Yiou, Pascal

2018-01-01

Analyses of extreme weather events and their impacts often requires big data processing of ensembles of climate model simulations. Researchers generally proceed by downloading the data from the providers and processing the data files ;at home; with their own analysis processes. However, the growing amount of available climate model and observation data makes this procedure quite awkward. In addition, data processing knowledge is kept local, instead of being consolidated into a common resource of reusable code. These drawbacks can be mitigated by using a web processing service (WPS). A WPS hosts services such as data analysis processes that are accessible over the web, and can be installed close to the data archives. We developed a WPS named 'flyingpigeon' that communicates over an HTTP network protocol based on standards defined by the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), to be used by climatologists and impact modelers as a tool for analyzing large datasets remotely. Here, we present the current processes we developed in flyingpigeon relating to commonly-used processes (preprocessing steps, spatial subsets at continent, country or region level, and climate indices) as well as methods for specific climate data analysis (weather regimes, analogues of circulation, segetal flora distribution, and species distribution models). We also developed a novel, browser-based interactive data visualization for circulation analogues, illustrating the flexibility of WPS in designing custom outputs. Bringing the software to the data instead of transferring the data to the code is becoming increasingly necessary, especially with the upcoming massive climate datasets.

The cold climate geomorphology of the Eastern Cape Drakensberg: A reevaluation of past climatic conditions during the last glacial cycle in Southern Africa

OpenAIRE

Mills, SC; Barrows, TT; Telfer, MW; Fifield, LK

2017-01-01

publisher: Elsevier articletitle: The cold climate geomorphology of the Eastern Cape Drakensberg: A reevaluation of past climatic conditions during the last glacial cycle in Southern Africa journaltitle: Geomorphology articlelink: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.11.011 content_type: article copyright: Crown Copyright © 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Persistent cold air outbreaks over North America in a warming climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Yang; Leung, L Ruby; Lu, Jian; Masato, Giacomo

2015-01-01

This study examines future changes of cold air outbreaks (CAOs) using a multi-model ensemble of global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and high resolution regional climate simulations. Overall, climate models agree on a dip in CAO duration across North America, but the percentage change is consistently smaller from western Canada to the upper mid-western US with historically more frequent CAO. By decomposing the changes of the probability density function of daily surface temperature into changes due to mean warming and changes in standard deviation (std) and skewness/higher order moments, the contributions of each factor to CAO changes are quantified. Results show that CAO changes can be explained largely by the mean warming, but the decrease in temperature std contributes to about 20% reduction of CAO from Alaska to northeastern US and eastern Canada possibly due to the Arctic amplification and weakening of storm track. A thermodynamical modulation of the skewness called the ‘0 °C mode’ effect is found to operate prominently along the 0 °C isotherm hemispherically and reduce CAO in western and northeastern US with winter snow cover by up to 10%. This effect also produces a manifold increase in CAO events over the Arctic sea ice. An increased frequency in atmospheric blocking also contributes to increases in CAO duration over Alaska and the Arctic region. Regional simulations revealed more contributions of existing snowpack to CAO in the near future over the Rocky Mountain, southwestern US, and Great Lakes areas through surface albedo effects. Overall, the multi-model projections emphasize that cold extremes do not completely disappear in a warming climate. Concomitant with the relatively smaller reduction in CAO events in northwestern US, the top five most extreme CAO events may still occur, and wind chill will continue to have societal impacts in that region. (letter)

A sensitivity study to global desertification in cold and warm climates: results from the IPSL OAGCM model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alkama, Ramdane [GAME/CNRM, CNRS/Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Kageyama, Masa; Ramstein, Gilles [LSCE/IPSL UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ 8212, Gif sur Yvette (France)

2012-04-15

Many simulations have been devoted to study the impact of global desertification on climate, but very few have quantified this impact in very different climate contexts. Here, the climatic impacts of large-scale global desertification in warm (2100 under the SRES A2 scenario forcing), modern and cold (Last Glacial Maximum, 21 thousand years ago) climates are assessed by using the IPSL OAGCM. For each climate, two simulations have been performed, one in which the continents are covered by modern vegetation, the other in which global vegetation is changed to desert i.e. bare soil. The comparison between desert and present vegetation worlds reveals that the prevailing signal in terms of surface energy budget is dominated by the reduction of upward latent heat transfer. Replacing the vegetation by bare soil has similar impacts on surface air temperature South of 20 N in all three climatic contexts, with a warming over tropical forests and a slight cooling over semi-arid and arid areas, and these temperature changes are of the same order of magnitude. North of 20 N, the difference between the temperatures simulated with present day vegetation and in a desert world is mainly due to the change in net radiation related to the modulation of the snow albedo by vegetation, which is obviously absent in the desert world simulations. The enhanced albedo in the desert world simulations induces a large temperature decrease, especially during summer in the cold and modern climatic contexts, whereas the largest difference occurs during winter in the warm climate. This temperature difference requires a larger heat transport to the northern high latitudes. Part of this heat transport increase is achieved through an intensification of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This intensification reduces the sea-ice extent and causes a warming over the North Atlantic and Arctic oceans in the warm climate context. In contrast, the large cooling North of 20 N in both the modern

Evaluating the effects of terrestrial ecosystems, climate and carbon dioxide on weathering over geological time: a global-scale process-based approach

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Lyla L.; Banwart, Steve A.; Valdes, Paul J.; Leake, Jonathan R.; Beerling, David J.

2012-01-01

Global weathering of calcium and magnesium silicate rocks provides the long-term sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) on a timescale of millions of years by causing precipitation of calcium carbonates on the seafloor. Catchment-scale field studies consistently indicate that vegetation increases silicate rock weathering, but incorporating the effects of trees and fungal symbionts into geochemical carbon cycle models has relied upon simple empirical scaling functions. Here, we describe the development and application of a process-based approach to deriving quantitative estimates of weathering by plant roots, associated symbiotic mycorrhizal fungi and climate. Our approach accounts for the influence of terrestrial primary productivity via nutrient uptake on soil chemistry and mineral weathering, driven by simulations using a dynamic global vegetation model coupled to an ocean–atmosphere general circulation model of the Earth's climate. The strategy is successfully validated against observations of weathering in watersheds around the world, indicating that it may have some utility when extrapolated into the past. When applied to a suite of six global simulations from 215 to 50 Ma, we find significantly larger effects over the past 220 Myr relative to the present day. Vegetation and mycorrhizal fungi enhanced climate-driven weathering by a factor of up to 2. Overall, we demonstrate a more realistic process-based treatment of plant fungal–geosphere interactions at the global scale, which constitutes a first step towards developing ‘next-generation’ geochemical models. PMID:22232768

Impact of extreme weather events and climate change for health and social care systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, Sarah; Fair, Alistair; Wistow, Jonathan; Val, Dimitri V; Oven, Katie

2017-12-05

This review, commissioned by the Research Councils UK Living With Environmental Change (LWEC) programme, concerns research on the impacts on health and social care systems in the United Kingdom of extreme weather events, under conditions of climate change. Extreme weather events considered include heatwaves, coldwaves and flooding. Using a structured review method, we consider evidence regarding the currently observed and anticipated future impacts of extreme weather on health and social care systems and the potential of preparedness and adaptation measures that may enhance resilience. We highlight a number of general conclusions which are likely to be of international relevance, although the review focussed on the situation in the UK. Extreme weather events impact the operation of health services through the effects on built, social and institutional infrastructures which support health and health care, and also because of changes in service demand as extreme weather impacts on human health. Strategic planning for extreme weather and impacts on the care system should be sensitive to within country variations. Adaptation will require changes to built infrastructure systems (including transport and utilities as well as individual care facilities) and also to institutional and social infrastructure supporting the health care system. Care sector organisations, communities and individuals need to adapt their practices to improve resilience of health and health care to extreme weather. Preparedness and emergency response strategies call for action extending beyond the emergency response services, to include health and social care providers more generally.

Beyond Climate and Weather Science: Expanding the Forecasting Family to Serve Societal Needs

Science.gov (United States)

Barron, E. J.

2009-05-01

The ability to "anticipate" the future is what makes information from the Earth sciences valuable to society - whether it is the prediction of severe weather or the future availability of water resources in response to climate change. An improved ability to anticipate or forecast has the potential to serve society by simultaneously improving our ability to (1) promote economic vitality, (2) enable environmental stewardship, (3) protect life and property, as well as (4) improve our fundamental knowledge of the earth system. The potential is enormous, yet many appear ready to move quickly toward specific mitigation and adaptation strategies assuming that the science is settled. Five important weakness must be addressed first: (1) the formation of a true "climate services" function and capability, (2) the deliberate investment in expanding the family of forecasting elements to incorporate a broader array of environmental factors and impacts, (3) the investment in the sciences that connect climate to society, (4) a deliberate focus on the problems associated with scale, in particular the difference between the scale of predictive models and the scale associated with societal decisions, and (5) the evolution from climate services and model predictions to the equivalent of "environmental intelligence centers." The objective is to bring the discipline of forecasting to a broader array of environmental challenges. Assessments of the potential impacts of global climate change on societal sectors such as water, human health, and agriculture provide good examples of this challenge. We have the potential to move from a largely reactive mode in addressing adverse health outcomes, for example, to one in which the ties between climate, land cover, infectious disease vectors, and human health are used to forecast and predict adverse human health conditions. The potential exists for a revolution in forecasting, that entrains a much broader set of societal needs and solutions. The

Rates of consumption of atmospheric CO2 through the weathering of loess during the next 100 yr of climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Pollard

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Quantifying how C fluxes will change in the future is a complex task for models because of the coupling between climate, hydrology, and biogeochemical reactions. Here we investigate how pedogenesis of the Peoria loess, which has been weathering for the last 13 kyr, will respond over the next 100 yr of climate change. Using a cascade of numerical models for climate (ARPEGE, vegetation (CARAIB and weathering (WITCH, we explore the effect of an increase in CO2 of 315 ppmv (1950 to 700 ppmv (2100 projection. The increasing CO2 results in an increase in temperature along the entire transect. In contrast, drainage increases slightly for a focus pedon in the south but decreases strongly in the north. These two variables largely determine the behavior of weathering. In addition, although CO2 production rate increases in the soils in response to global warming, the rate of diffusion back to the atmosphere also increases, maintaining a roughly constant or even decreasing CO2 concentration in the soil gas phase. Our simulations predict that temperature increasing in the next 100 yr causes the weathering rates of the silicates to increase into the future. In contrast, the weathering rate of dolomite – which consumes most of the CO2 – decreases in both end members (south and north of the transect due to its retrograde solubility. We thus infer slower rates of advance of the dolomite reaction front into the subsurface, and faster rates of advance of the silicate reaction front. However, additional simulations for 9 pedons located along the north–south transect show that the dolomite weathering advance rate will increase in the central part of the Mississippi Valley, owing to a maximum in the response of vertical drainage to the ongoing climate change. The carbonate reaction front can be likened to a terrestrial lysocline because it represents a depth interval over which carbonate dissolution rates increase drastically. However, in contrast to the lower

Come rain or shine: Multi-model Projections of Climate Hazards affecting Transportation in the South Central United States

Science.gov (United States)

Mullens, E.; Mcpherson, R. A.

2016-12-01

This work develops detailed trends in climate hazards affecting the Department of Transportation's Region 6, in the South Central U.S. Firstly, a survey was developed to gather information regarding weather and climate hazards in the region from the transportation community, identifying key phenomena and thresholds to evaluate. Statistically downscaled datasets were obtained from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues (MACA) project, and the Asynchronous Regional Regression Model (ARRM), for a total of 21 model projections, two coupled model intercomparisons (CMIP3, and CMIP5), and four emissions pathways (A1Fi, B1, RCP8.5, RCP4.5). Specific hazards investigated include winter weather, freeze-thaw cycles, hot and cold extremes, and heavy precipitation. Projections for each of these variables were calculated for the region, utilizing spatial mapping, and time series analysis at the climate division level. The results indicate that cold-season phenomena such as winter weather, freeze-thaw, and cold extremes, decrease in intensity and frequency, particularly with the higher emissions pathways. Nonetheless, specific model and downscaling method yields variability in magnitudes, with the most notable decreasing trends late in the 21st century. Hot days show a pronounced increase, particularly with greater emissions, producing annual mean 100oF day frequencies by late 21st century analogous to the 2011 heatwave over the central Southern Plains. Heavy precipitation, evidenced by return period estimates and counts-over-thresholds, also show notable increasing trends, particularly between the recent past through mid-21st Century. Conversely, mean precipitation does not show significant trends and is regionally variable. Precipitation hazards (e.g., winter weather, extremes) diverge between downscaling methods and their associated model samples much more substantially than temperature, suggesting that the choice of global model and downscaled data is particularly

Differences in volatile profiles of Cabernet Sauvignon grapes grown in two distinct regions of China and their responses to weather conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xiao-Qing; Liu, Bin; Zhu, Bao-Qing; Lan, Yi-Bin; Gao, Yuan; Wang, Dong; Reeves, Malcolm J; Duan, Chang-Qing

2015-04-01

Volatile compounds are considered important for plants to communicate with each other and interact with their environments. Most wine-producing regions in China feature a continental monsoon climate with hot-wet summers and dry-cold winters, giving grapes markedly different growing environments compared to the Mediterranean or oceanic climates described in previous reports. This study focused on comparing the volatile profiles of Vitis vinifera L. cv. Cabernet Sauvignon berries from two regions with distinct climate characteristics: Changli has a warm and semi-humid summer, and Gaotai has a cool-arid summer and a cold winter. The relationship between meteorological metrics and the concentrations of grape volatiles were also examined. In harvested grapes, benzyl alcohol, phenylethyl alcohol, 1-hexanol and 1-octen-3-ol were more abundant in the Changli berries, while hexanal, heptanal, 2-methoxy-3-isobutylpyrazine, and (E)-β-damascenone presented higher levels in the Gaotai berries. The fluctuation in the accumulation of volatile compounds observed during berry development was closely correlated with variations in short-term weather (weather in a week), especially rainfall. The concentration of some volatiles, notably aliphatic aldehydes, was significantly related to diurnal temperature differences. The variability during berry development of concentrations for compounds such as C6 volatile compounds, 2-methoxy-3-isobutylpyrazine and (E)-β-damascenone strongly depended upon weather conditions. This work expands our knowledge about the influence of continental monsoon climates on volatile compounds in developing grape berries. It will also improve the comprehension of the plant response to their surrounding environments through the accumulation of volatiles. The results will help growers to alter viticultural practices according to local conditions to improve the aromatic quality of grapes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Climatic impact on isovolumetric weathering of a coarse-grained schist in the northern Piedmont Province of the central Atlantic states

Science.gov (United States)

Cleaves, E.T.

1993-01-01

The possible impact of periglacial climates on the rate of chemical weathering of a coarse-grained plagioclase-muscovite-quartz schist has been determined for a small watershed near Baltimore, Maryland. The isovolumetric chemical weathering model formulated from the geochemical mass balance study of the watershed shows that the weathering front advances at a velocity of 9.1 m/m.y., if the modern environmental parameters remain the same back through time. However, recent surficial geological mapping demonstrates that periglacial climates have impacted the area. Such an impact significantly affects two key chemical weathering parameters, the concentration of CO2 in the soil and groundwater moving past the weathering front. Depending upon the assumptions used in the model, the rate of saprolitization varies from 2.2 to 5.3 m/m.y. The possible impact of periglacial processes suggested by the chemical weathering rates indicates a need to reconsider theories of landscape evolution as they apply to the northern Piedmont Province of the mid-Atlantic states. I suggest that from the Late Miocene to the present that the major rivers have become incised in their present locations; this incision has enhanced groundwater circulation and chemical weathering such that crystalline rocks beneath interfluvial areas remain mantled by saprolite; and the saprolite mantle has been partially stripped as periglacial conditions alternate with humid-temperate conditions. ?? 1993.

Now, Here's the Weather Forecast...

Science.gov (United States)

Richardson, Mathew

2013-01-01

The Met Office has a long history of weather forecasting, creating tailored weather forecasts for customers across the world. Based in Exeter, the Met Office is also home to the Met Office Hadley Centre, a world-leading centre for the study of climate change and its potential impacts. Climate information from the Met Office Hadley Centre is used…

Stable and Radiogenic Sr Isotopes in Barite - Clues on the Links Between Weathering, Climate and the C Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Paytan, A.; Eisenhauer, A.; Wallmann, K. J. G.; Griffith, E. M.; Ridgwell, A.

2017-12-01

The radiogenic Sr-isotopic signature (87Sr/86Sr) of seawater fluctuates primarily in response to changes in the inputs of Sr from weathering and hydrothermal activity, which have distinct 87Sr/86Sr values. Changes in the isotopic ratio of the weathered terrain also contribute to observed changes in 87Sr/86Sr. The stable Sr-isotope ratios in seawater (mass dependent isotopic fractionation; δ88/86Sr) fluctuate primarily in response to the rate of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) accumulation at the seafloor. Together the radiogenic and stable Sr can constrain the coupling between weathering and sedimentation and shed light on the relation between weathering, CaCO3 deposition, the global carbon (C) cycle and climate. Reconstruction of the coupled stable and radiogenic Sr seawater curves over the past 35 Ma of Earth history indicates that the location and rate of CaCO3 burial in the ocean fluctuated considerably over the past 35 Ma. Between 35 to 18 Ma a reduction in neritic CaCO3 burial and increased burial in pelagic settings is observed. The trend was reversed between 20 and 3 Ma and finally over the last 3 million years a rapid change from neritic to pelagic burial is seen. The lack of continues increase of pelagic CaCO3 burial rates suggests that silicate weathering rates have not increased monotonically over the past 35 Ma implying strong feedbacks operating in the climate system - lower atmospheric pCO2 and cooling trends (which control chemical weathering as seen from carbonate deposition in the ocean) countered the effects of uplift (which controls physical weathering) - modulating weathering rates and preventing a runaway ice-house. In addition the data suggests considerable fluctuations in seawater Sr concentrations over time. These data demonstrate how using multiple isotope proxies can help constrain interpretations of the geological record.

Enhanced weathering strategies for stabilizing climate and averting ocean acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Lyla L.; Quirk, Joe; Thorley, Rachel M. S.; Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James; Ridgwell, Andy; Lomas, Mark R.; Banwart, Steve A.; Beerling, David J.

2016-04-01

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m-2 yr-1) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Lyla L.; Quirk, Joe; Thorley, Rachel M. S.; Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James; Ridgwell, Andy; Lomas, Mark R.; Banwart, Steve A.; Beerling, David J.

2015-01-01

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Evaluating the quality and usability of crowdsourced weather data

Science.gov (United States)

Koole, Martijn; Siegmund, Peter

2016-04-01

In April 2015 the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) launched the Weather Observations Website (WOW-NL, https://wow.knmi.nl/) in the Netherlands in cooperation with the UK Met Office, who launched a similar WOW-UK website in 2011. WOW-NL functions as a platform to collect weather data that is measured by amateurs or organizations who own an automatic weather station. Such data can be used to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of existing observation networks. This can be meaningful for better understanding of e.g. urban climate (urban heat islands) and the occurrence of extreme meteorological events. In November 2015 the number of Dutch participants of WOW-NL was approximately 250. The following meteorological parameters are uploaded to the website every 10 minutes: air temperature, air pressure, rainfall rate, humidity, wind speed and wind direction. To get an idea about the location and environment at which the weather stations are placed, participants are asked to rate their station based on exposure, type of devices used and the level of urbanization. They can also specify the elevation and add a short description of the equipment that is used. This study examines the quality of the crowd-sourced weather data by using interpolated weather data that is measured at official weather stations that are operated by KNMI. Measurements at amateur stations are compared with the interpolated measurements and differences are explained using the metadata that the participants specified. A number of days is selected where interesting meteorological situations occurred, such as extremely hot weather, cold fronts, rain fronts or heavy winds. Based on this, recommendations are presented about possible applications of crowd-sourced weather data with respect to the quality level.

Ethno-meteorology and scientific weather forecasting: Small farmers and scientists’ perspectives on climate variability in the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oluwatoyin Dare Kolawole

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Recent trends in abrupt weather changes continue to pose a challenge to agricultural production most especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The paper specifically addresses the questions on how local farmers read and predict the weather; and how they can collaborate with weather scientists in devising adaptation strategies for climate variability (CV in the Okavango Delta of Botswana. Recent trends in agriculture-related weather variables available from country’s climate services, as well as in freely available satellite rainfall products were analysed. The utility of a seasonal hydrological forecasting system for the study area in the context of supporting farmer’s information needs were assessed. Through a multi-stage sampling procedure, a total of 592 households heads in 8 rural communities in the Okavango Delta were selected and interviewed using open and close-ended interview schedules. Also, 19 scientists were purposively selected and interviewed using questionnaires. Key informant interviews, focus group and knowledge validation workshops were used to generate qualitative information from both farmers and scientists. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used in summarising the data. Analysis of satellite rainfall products indicated that there was a consistent increase in total annual rainfall throughout the region in the last 10 years, accompanied by an increase in number of rain days, and reduction of duration of dry spells. However, there is a progressive increase in the region’s temperatures leading to increase in potential evaporation. Findings from social surveys show that farmers’ age, education level, number of years engaged in farming, sources of weather information, knowledge of weather forecasting and decision on farming practices either had a significant relationship or correlation with their perceptions about the nature of both local [ethno-meteorological] and scientific weather knowledge. Nonetheless, there was a

Analysis on energy-saving path of rural buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Mingqiang; Li, Jinheng

2018-02-01

Since the reform and opening policy, the construction of rural area in China has become more and more important. The idea of establishing green villages needs to be accepted and recognized by the public. The hot summer and cold winter zone combines two contradictory weather conditions that is cold winter and hot summer. So the living conditions are limited. In response to this climate, residents extensively use electric heaters or air conditioning to adjust the indoor temperature, resulting in energy waste and environmental pollution. In order to improve the living conditions of residents, rural area energy conservation has been put on the agenda. Based on the present situation and energy consumption analysis of the rural buildings in the hot summer and cold winter zone, this article puts forward several energy saving paths from government, construction technology and so on

Insect community responses to climate and weather across elevation gradients in the Sagebrush Steppe, eastern Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

Pilliod, David S.; Rohde, Ashley T.

2016-11-17

Executive SummaryIn this study, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the use of insects as bioindicators of climate change in sagebrush steppe shrublands and grasslands in the Upper Columbia Basin. The research was conducted in the Stinkingwater and Pueblo mountain ranges in eastern Oregon on lands administered by the Bureau of Land Management.We used a “space-for-time” sampling design that related insect communities to climate and weather along elevation gradients. We analyzed our insect dataset at three levels of organization: (1) whole-community, (2) feeding guilds (detritivores, herbivores, nectarivores, parasites, and predators), and (3) orders within nectarivores (i.e., pollinators). We captured 59,517 insects from 176 families and 10 orders at the Pueblo Mountains study area and 112,305 insects from 185 families and 11 orders at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area in 2012 and 2013. Of all the individuals captured at the Stinkingwater Mountains study area, 77,688 were from the family Cecidomyiidae (Diptera, gall gnats).We found that the composition of insect communities was associated with variability in long-term (30-yr) temperature and interannual fluctuations in temperature. We found that captures of certain fly, bee, moth, and butterfly pollinators were more strongly associated with some climate and vegetation variables than others. We found that timing of emergence, as measured by first detection of families, was associated with elevation. When analyzed by feeding guilds, we found that all guilds emerged later at high elevations except for detritivores, which emerged earlier at high elevations. The abundance of most taxa varied through time, mostly in response to temperature and precipitation. Of the pollinators, bees (particularly, Halictidae and Megachilidae) peaked in abundance in late June and early July, whereas butterflies and moths peaked in August. Flies peaked in abundance in July.Overall, our interpretation of these patterns is that

Study on climate change in Southwestern China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Zongxing

2015-03-01

Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

Study on climate change in Southwestern China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Zongxing

2015-01-01

Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

A Coupled Surface Nudging Scheme for use in Retrospective Weather and Climate Simulations for Environmental Applications

Science.gov (United States)

A surface analysis nudging scheme coupling atmospheric and land surface thermodynamic parameters has been implemented into WRF v3.8 (latest version) for use with retrospective weather and climate simulations, as well as for applications in air quality, hydrology, and ecosystem mo...

Climate Control Load Reduction Strategies for Electric Drive Vehicles in Warm Weather

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeffers, M. A.; Chaney, L.; Rugh, J. P.

2015-04-30

Passenger compartment climate control is one of the largest auxiliary loads on a vehicle. Like conventional vehicles, electric vehicles (EVs) require climate control to maintain occupant comfort and safety, but cabin heating and air conditioning have a negative impact on driving range for all electric vehicles. Range reduction caused by climate control and other factors is a barrier to widespread adoption of EVs. Reducing the thermal loads on the climate control system will extend driving range, thereby reducing consumer range anxiety and increasing the market penetration of EVs. Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have investigated strategies for vehicle climate control load reduction, with special attention toward EVs. Outdoor vehicle thermal testing was conducted on two 2012 Ford Focus Electric vehicles to evaluate thermal management strategies for warm weather, including solar load reduction and cabin pre-ventilation. An advanced thermal test manikin was used to assess a zonal approach to climate control. In addition, vehicle thermal analysis was used to support testing by exploring thermal load reduction strategies, evaluating occupant thermal comfort, and calculating EV range impacts. Through stationary cooling tests and vehicle simulations, a zonal cooling configuration demonstrated range improvement of 6%-15%, depending on the drive cycle. A combined cooling configuration that incorporated thermal load reduction and zonal cooling strategies showed up to 33% improvement in EV range.

Can we expect to predict climate if we cannot shadow weather?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Leonard

2010-05-01

What limits our ability to predict (or project) useful statistics of future climate? And how might we quantify those limits? In the early 1960s, Ed Lorenz illustrated one constraint on point forecasts of the weather (chaos) while noting another (model imperfections). In the mid-sixties he went on to discuss climate prediction, noting that chaos, per se, need not limit accurate forecasts of averages and the distributions that define climate. In short, chaos might place draconian limits on what we can say about a particular summer day in 2010 (or 2040), but it need not limit our ability to make accurate and informative statements about the weather over this summer as a whole, or climate distributions of the 2040's. If not chaos, what limits our ability to produce decision relevant probability distribution functions (PDFs)? Is this just a question of technology (raw computer power) and uncertain boundary conditions (emission scenarios)? Arguably, current model simulations of the Earth's climate are limited by model inadequacy: not that the initial or boundary conditions are unknown but that state-of-the-art models would not yield decision-relevant probability distributions even if they were known. Or to place this statement in an empirically falsifiable format: that in 2100 when the boundary conditions are known and computer power is (hopefully) sufficient to allow exhaustive exploration of today's state-of-the-art models: we will find today's models do not admit a trajectory consistent with our knowledge of the state of the earth in 2009 which would prove of decision support relevance for, say, 25 km, hourly resolution. In short: today's models cannot shadow the weather of this century even after the fact. Restating this conjecture in a more positive frame: a 2100 historian of science will be able to determine the highest space and time scales on which 2009 models could have (i) produced trajectories plausibly consistent with the (by then) observed twenty

Analysis of Solar Chimneys in Different Climate Zones - Case of Social Housing in Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Godoy-Vaca, Luis; Almaguer, Manuel; Martínez-Gómez, Javier; Lobato, Andrea; Palme, Massimo

2017-10-01

The aim of this research is to simulate the performance of a solar chimney located in different macro-zones in Ecuador. The proposed solar chimney model was simulated using a python script in order to predict the temperature distribution and the mass flow over time. The results obtained were firstly compared with experimental data for dry-warm climate. Then, the model was evaluated and tested in real weather conditions: dry-warm, moist-warm and rainy-cold. In addition, the assumed chimney dimensions were chosen according to the literature for the studied conditions. In spite of evaluating the best nightly ventilation, different chimney wall materials were tested: solid brick, common brick and reinforced concrete. The results showed that concrete in a dry-warm climate, a metallic layer on the gap with solid brick in a moist-warm climate and reinforced concrete in a rainy cold climate used for the absorbent wall improve the thermal inertia of the social housing.

Validation of standard ASTM F2732 and comparison with ISO 11079 with respect to comfort temperature ratings for cold protective clothing.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Chuansi; Lin, Li-Yen; Halder, Amitava; Kuklane, Kalev; Holmér, Ingvar

2015-01-01

American standard ASTM F2732 estimates the lowest environmental temperature for thermal comfort for cold weather protective clothing. International standard ISO 11079 serves the same purpose but expresses cold stress in terms of required clothing insulation for a given cold climate. The objective of this study was to validate and compare the temperature ratings using human subject tests at two levels of metabolic rates (2 and 4 MET corresponding to 116.4 and 232.8 W/m(2)). Nine young and healthy male subjects participated in the cold exposure at 3.4 and -30.6 °C. The results showed that both standards predict similar temperature ratings for an intrinsic clothing insulation of 1.89 clo and for 2 MET activity. The predicted temperature rating for 2 MET activity is consistent with test subjects' thermophysiological responses, perceived thermal sensation and thermal comfort. For 4 MET activity, however, the whole body responses were on the cold side, particularly the responses of the extremities. ASTM F2732 is also limited due to its omission and simplification of three climatic variables (air velocity, radiant temperature and relative humidity) and exposure time in the cold which are of practical importance. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

The Fluvial Geochemistry of the Rivers of Eastern Siberia and Implications for the Effect of Climate on Weathering

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Huh, Youngsook

1998-01-01

The dependence of weathering on climate (temperature and precipitation) forms the core of a negative feedback proposed to have maintained the Earth's atmospheric CO2 within habitable limits for most of...

Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean?

Science.gov (United States)

Yumul, Graciano P; Cruz, Nathaniel A; Servando, Nathaniel T; Dimalanta, Carla B

2011-04-01

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines. © 2011 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2011.

Application of global weather and climate model output to the design and operation of wind-energy systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Curry, Judith [Climate Forecast Applications Network, Atlanta, GA (United States)

2015-05-21

This project addressed the challenge of providing weather and climate information to support the operation, management and planning for wind-energy systems. The need for forecast information is extending to longer projection windows with increasing penetration of wind power into the grid and also with diminishing reserve margins to meet peak loads during significant weather events. Maintenance planning and natural gas trading is being influenced increasingly by anticipation of wind generation on timescales of weeks to months. Future scenarios on decadal time scales are needed to support assessment of wind farm siting, government planning, long-term wind purchase agreements and the regulatory environment. The challenge of making wind forecasts on these longer time scales is associated with a wide range of uncertainties in general circulation and regional climate models that make them unsuitable for direct use in the design and planning of wind-energy systems. To address this challenge, CFAN has developed a hybrid statistical/dynamical forecasting scheme for delivering probabilistic forecasts on time scales from one day to seven months using what is arguably the best forecasting system in the world (European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, ECMWF). The project also provided a framework to assess future wind power through developing scenarios of interannual to decadal climate variability and change. The Phase II research has successfully developed an operational wind power forecasting system for the U.S., which is being extended to Europe and possibly Asia.

Impact of climate and weather on the activities of the building and construction industry in South Africa

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

De Villiers, GDT

1986-01-01

Full Text Available This study represents a quantitative survey of the impact of the climate and weather on the activities of the building and construction industry in South Africa. Seasonal productivity problems, the seasonal provision of special facilities...

Performance of a Battery Electric Vehicle in the Cold Climate and Hilly Terrain of Vermont

Science.gov (United States)

2008-12-23

The goal of this research project was to determine the performance of a battery electric vehicle (BEV) in the cold climate and hilly terrain of Vermont. For this study, a 2005 Toyota Echo was converted from an internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle...

Zeolite Formation and Weathering Processes in Dry Valleys of Antartica: Martian Analogs

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, E. K., Jr.; Wentworth, S. J.; McKay, D. S.; Socki, R. A.

2004-01-01

Terrestrial weathering processes in cold-desert climates such as the Dry Valleys of Antarctica may provide an excellent analog to chemical weathering and diagenesis of soils on Mars. Detailed studies of soil development and the chemical and mineralogical alterations occurring within soil columns in Wright Valley, Antarctica show incredible complexity in the upper meter of soil. Previous workers noted the ice-free Dry Valleys are the best terrestrial approximations to contemporary Mars. Images returned from the Pathfinder and Spirit landers show similarities to surfaces observed within the Dry Valleys. Similarities to Mars that exist in these valleys are: mean temperatures always below freezing (-20 C), no rainfall, sparse snowfall-rapidly removed by sublimation, desiccating winds, diurnal freeze-thaw cycles (even during daylight hours), low humidity, oxidative environment, relatively high solar radiation and low magnetic fields . The Dry Valley soils contain irregular distributions and low abundances of soil microorganisms that are somewhat unusual on Earth. Physical processes-such as sand abrasion-are dominant mechanisms of rock weathering in Antarctica. However, chemical weathering is also an important process even in such extreme climates. For example, ionic migration occurs even in frozen soils along liquid films on individual soil particles. It has also been shown that water with liquid-like properties is present in soils at temperatures on the order of approx.-80 C and it has been observed that the percentage of oxidized iron increases with increasing soil age and enrichments in oxidized iron occurs toward the surface. The presence of evaporates is evident and appear similar to "evaporite sites" within the Pathfinder and Spirit sites. Evaporites indicate ionic migration and chemical activity even in the permanently frozen zone. The presence of evaporates indicates that chemical weathering of rocks and possibly soils has been active. Authogenic zeolites have

Application of the Hess-Brezowsky classification to the identification of weather patterns causing heavy winter rainfall in Brittany (France

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Planchon

2009-07-01

Full Text Available An accurate knowledge of the weather patterns causing winter rainfall over the Scorff watershed in western Brittany (W. France was developed prior to studies of the impact of the climate factor on land use management, and of the hydrological reponses to rain-producing weather patterns. These two studies are carried out in the context of the climate change. The identification of rainy air-circulation types was realized using the objective computational version of the 29-type Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen system of classifying European synoptic regimes, for the cold season (November-March of the 1958–2005 period at the reference weather station of Lorient, and 13 other stations located in western and southern Brittany, including a more detailed study for the wet 2000–2001 cold season for three reference stations of the Scorff watershed (Lorient, Plouay and Plouray. The precipitation proportion (including the days with rainfall ≥20 mm was calculated by major air-circulation type (GWT: see Appendix A and by individual air-circulation subtype (GWL: see Appendix A for the studied time-period. The most frequently occurrence of rainy days associated with westerly and southerly GWL confirmed well-known observations in western Europe and so justify the use of the Hess-Brezowsky classification in other areas outside Central Europe. The southern or south-western exposure of the watershed with a hilly inland area enhanced the heavy rainfall generated by the SW and S circulation types, and increased the difference between the rainfall amounts of coastal and inland stations during the wettest days.

Extreme climate in China. Facts, simulation and projection

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Hui-Jun; Sun, Jian-Qi; Chen, Huo-Po; Zhu, Ya-Li; Zhang, Ying; Jiang, Da-Bang; Lang, Xian-Mei; Fan, Ke; Yu, En-Tao [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics; Yang, Song [NOAA Climate Prediction Center, Camp Springs, MD (United States)

2012-06-15

In this paper, studies on extreme climate in China including extreme temperature and precipitation, dust weather activity, tropical cyclone activity, intense snowfall and cold surge activity, floods, and droughts are reviewed based on the peer-reviewed publications in recent decades. The review is focused first on the climatological features, variability, and trends in the past half century and then on simulations and projections based on global and regional climate models. As the annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) increased throughout China, heat wave intensity and frequency overall increased in the past half century, with a large rate after the 1980s. The daily or yearly minimum SAT increased more significantly than the mean or maximum SAT. The long-term change in precipitation is predominantly characterized by the so-called southern flood and northern drought pattern in eastern China and by the overall increase over Northwest China. The interdecadal variation of monsoon, represented by the monsoon weakening in the end of 1970s, is largely responsible for this change in mean precipitation. Precipitation-related extreme events (e.g., heavy rainfall and intense snowfall) have become more frequent and intense generally over China in the recent years, with large spatial features. Dust weather activity, however, has become less frequent over northern China in the recent years, as result of weakened cold surge activity, reinforced precipitation, and improved vegetation condition. State-of-the-art climate models are capable of reproducing some features of the mean climate and extreme climate events. However, discrepancies among models in simulating and projecting the mean and extreme climate are also demonstrated by many recent studies. Regional models with higher resolutions often perform better than global models. To predict and project climate variations and extremes, many new approaches and schemes based on dynamical models, statistical methods, or their

Hourly test reference weather data in the changing climate of Finland for building energy simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirsti Jylhä

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Dynamic building energy simulations need hourly weather data as input. The same high temporal resolution is required for assessments of future heating and cooling energy demand. The data presented in this article concern current typical values and estimated future changes in outdoor air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and global, diffuse and normal solar radiation components. Simulated annual and seasonal delivered energy consumptions for heating of spaces, heating of ventilation supply air and cooling of spaces in the current and future climatic conditions are also presented for an example house, with district heating and a mechanical space cooling system. We provide details on how the synthetic future weather files were created and utilised as input data for dynamic building energy simulations by the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy program and also for calculations of heating and cooling degree-day sums. The information supplied here is related to the research article titled “Energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential houses in Finland in a changing climate” [1].

Climate and weather across scales: singularities and stochastic Levy-Clifford algebra

Science.gov (United States)

Schertzer, Daniel; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia

2016-04-01

There have been several attempts to understand and simulate the fluctuations of weather and climate across scales. Beyond mono/uni-scaling approaches (e.g. using spectral analysis), this was done with the help of multifractal techniques that aim to track and simulate the scaling singularities of the underlying equations instead of relying on numerical, scale truncated simulations of these equations (Royer et al., 2008, Lovejoy and Schertzer, 2013). However, these techniques were limited to deal with scalar fields, instead of dealing directly with a system of complex interactions and non trivial symmetries. The latter is unfortunately indispensable to answer to the challenging question of being able to assess the climatology of (exo-) planets based on first principles (Pierrehumbert, 2013) or to fully address the question of the relevance of quasi-geostrophic turbulence and to define an effective, fractal dimension of the atmospheric motions (Schertzer et al., 2012). In this talk, we present a plausible candidate based on the combination of Lévy stable processes and Clifford algebra. Together they combine stochastic and structural properties that are strongly universal. They therefore define with the help of a few physically meaningful parameters a wide class of stochastic symmetries, as well as high dimensional vector- or manifold-valued fields respecting these symmetries (Schertzer and Tchiguirinskaia, 2015). Lovejoy, S. & Schertzer, D., 2013. The Weather and Climate: Emergent Laws and Multifractal Cascades. Cambridge U.K. Cambridge Univeristy Press. Pierrehumbert, R.T., 2013. Strange news from other stars. Nature Geoscience, 6(2), pp.81-83. Royer, J.F. et al., 2008. Multifractal analysis of the evolution of simulated precipitation over France in a climate scenario. C.R. Geoscience, 340(431-440). Schertzer, D. et al., 2012. Quasi-geostrophic turbulence and generalized scale invariance, a theoretical reply. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, pp.327-336. Schertzer, D

The effects of synoptic weather on influenza infection incidences: a retrospective study utilizing digital disease surveillance

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Naizhuo; Cao, Guofeng; Vanos, Jennifer K.; Vecellio, Daniel J.

2018-01-01

The environmental drivers and mechanisms of influenza dynamics remain unclear. The recent development of influenza surveillance-particularly the emergence of digital epidemiology-provides an opportunity to further understand this puzzle as an area within applied human biometeorology. This paper investigates the short-term weather effects on human influenza activity at a synoptic scale during cold seasons. Using 10 years (2005-2014) of municipal level influenza surveillance data (an adjustment of the Google Flu Trends estimation from the Centers for Disease Control's virologic surveillance data) and daily spatial synoptic classification weather types, we explore and compare the effects of weather exposure on the influenza infection incidences in 79 cities across the USA. We find that during the cold seasons the presence of the polar [i.e., dry polar (DP) and moist polar (MP)] weather types is significantly associated with increasing influenza likelihood in 62 and 68% of the studied cities, respectively, while the presence of tropical [i.e., dry tropical (DT) and moist tropical (MT)] weather types is associated with a significantly decreasing occurrence of influenza in 56 and 43% of the cities, respectively. The MP and the DP weather types exhibit similar close positive correlations with influenza infection incidences, indicating that both cold-dry and cold-moist air provide favorable conditions for the occurrence of influenza in the cold seasons. Additionally, when tropical weather types are present, the humid (MT) and the dry (DT) weather types have similar strong impacts to inhibit the occurrence of influenza. These findings suggest that temperature is a more dominating atmospheric factor than moisture that impacts the occurrences of influenza in cold seasons.

Detection and attribution of extreme weather disasters

Science.gov (United States)

Huggel, Christian; Stone, Dáithí; Hansen, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Single disasters related to extreme weather events have caused loss and damage on the order of up to tens of billions US dollars over the past years. Recent disasters fueled the debate about whether and to what extent these events are related to climate change. In international climate negotiations disaster loss and damage is now high on the agenda, and related policy mechanisms have been discussed or are being implemented. In view of funding allocation and effective risk reduction strategies detection and attribution to climate change of extreme weather events and disasters is a key issue. Different avenues have so far been taken to address detection and attribution in this context. Physical climate sciences have developed approaches, among others, where variables that are reasonably sampled over climatically relevant time periods and related to the meteorological characteristics of the extreme event are examined. Trends in these variables (e.g. air or sea surface temperatures) are compared between observations and climate simulations with and without anthropogenic forcing. Generally, progress has been made in recent years in attribution of changes in the chance of some single extreme weather events to anthropogenic climate change but there remain important challenges. A different line of research is primarily concerned with losses related to the extreme weather events over time, using disaster databases. A growing consensus is that the increase in asset values and in exposure are main drivers of the strong increase of economic losses over the past several decades, and only a limited number of studies have found trends consistent with expectations from climate change. Here we propose a better integration of existing lines of research in detection and attribution of extreme weather events and disasters by applying a risk framework. Risk is thereby defined as a function of the probability of occurrence of an extreme weather event, and the associated consequences

Crossing the chasm: how to develop weather and climate models for next generation computers?

Science.gov (United States)

Lawrence, Bryan N.; Rezny, Michael; Budich, Reinhard; Bauer, Peter; Behrens, Jörg; Carter, Mick; Deconinck, Willem; Ford, Rupert; Maynard, Christopher; Mullerworth, Steven; Osuna, Carlos; Porter, Andrew; Serradell, Kim; Valcke, Sophie; Wedi, Nils; Wilson, Simon

2018-05-01

Weather and climate models are complex pieces of software which include many individual components, each of which is evolving under pressure to exploit advances in computing to enhance some combination of a range of possible improvements (higher spatio-temporal resolution, increased fidelity in terms of resolved processes, more quantification of uncertainty, etc.). However, after many years of a relatively stable computing environment with little choice in processing architecture or programming paradigm (basically X86 processors using MPI for parallelism), the existing menu of processor choices includes significant diversity, and more is on the horizon. This computational diversity, coupled with ever increasing software complexity, leads to the very real possibility that weather and climate modelling will arrive at a chasm which will separate scientific aspiration from our ability to develop and/or rapidly adapt codes to the available hardware. In this paper we review the hardware and software trends which are leading us towards this chasm, before describing current progress in addressing some of the tools which we may be able to use to bridge the chasm. This brief introduction to current tools and plans is followed by a discussion outlining the scientific requirements for quality model codes which have satisfactory performance and portability, while simultaneously supporting productive scientific evolution. We assert that the existing method of incremental model improvements employing small steps which adjust to the changing hardware environment is likely to be inadequate for crossing the chasm between aspiration and hardware at a satisfactory pace, in part because institutions cannot have all the relevant expertise in house. Instead, we outline a methodology based on large community efforts in engineering and standardisation, which will depend on identifying a taxonomy of key activities - perhaps based on existing efforts to develop domain-specific languages

Climate Control Load Reduction Strategies for Electric Drive Vehicles in Cold Weather: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeffers, Matthew; Chaney, Lawrence; Rugh, John

2016-03-31

When operated, the climate control system is the largest auxiliary load on a vehicle. This load has significant impact on fuel economy for conventional and hybrid vehicles, and it drastically reduces the driving range of all electric vehicles (EVs). Heating is even more detrimental to EV range than cooling because no engine waste heat is available. Reducing the thermal loads on the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning system will extend driving range and increase the market penetration of EVs. Researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory have evaluated strategies for vehicle climate control load reduction with special attention toward grid connected electric vehicles. Outdoor vehicle thermal testing and computational modeling were used to assess potential strategies for improved thermal management and to evaluate the effectiveness of thermal load reduction technologies. A human physiology model was also used to evaluate the impact on occupant thermal comfort. Experimental evaluations of zonal heating strategies demonstrated a 5.5% to 28.5% reduction in cabin heating energy over a 20-minute warm-up. Vehicle simulations over various drive cycles show a 6.9% to 18.7% improvement in EV range over baseline heating using the most promising zonal heating strategy investigated. A national-level analysis was conducted to determine the overall national impact. If all vehicles used the best zonal strategy, the range would be improved by 7.1% over the baseline heating range. This is a 33% reduction in the range penalty for heating.

The interdecadal worsening of weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in the Beijing area in relation to climate warming

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhong, Junting; Wang, Jizhi; Wang, Yaqiang; Liu, Yanju

2018-04-01

The weather conditions affecting aerosol pollution in Beijing and its vicinity (BIV) in wintertime have worsened in recent years, particularly after 2010. The relation between interdecadal changes in weather conditions and climate warming is uncertain. Here, we analyze long-term variations of an integrated pollution-linked meteorological index (which is approximately and linearly related to aerosol pollution), the extent of changes in vertical temperature differences in the boundary layer (BL) in BIV, and northerly surface winds from Lake Baikal during wintertime to evaluate the potential contribution of climate warming to changes in meteorological conditions directly related to aerosol pollution in this area; this is accomplished using NCEP reanalysis data, surface observations, and long-term vertical balloon sounding observations since 1960. The weather conditions affecting BIV aerosol pollution are found to have worsened since the 1960s as a whole. This worsening is more significant after 2010, with PM2.5 reaching unprecedented high levels in many cities in China, particularly in BIV. The decadal worsening of meteorological conditions in BIV can partly be attributed to climate warming, which is defined by more warming in the higher layers of the boundary layer (BL) than the lower layers. This worsening can also be influenced by the accumulation of aerosol pollution, to a certain extent (particularly after 2010), because the increase in aerosol pollution from the ground leads to surface cooling by aerosol-radiation interactions, which facilitates temperature inversions, increases moisture accumulations, and results in the extra deterioration of meteorological conditions. If analyzed as a linear trend, weather conditions have worsened by ˜ 4 % each year from 2010 to 2017. Given such a deterioration rate, the worsening of weather conditions may lead to a corresponding amplitude increase in PM2.5 in BIV during wintertime in the next 5 years (i.e., 2018 to 2022

Weather and Tourism: Thermal Comfort and Zoological Park Visitor Attendance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David R. Perkins

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Weather events have the potential to greatly impact business operations and profitability, especially in outdoor-oriented economic sectors such as Tourism, Recreation, and Leisure (TRL. Although a substantive body of work focuses on the macroscale impacts of climate change, less is known about how daily weather events influence attendance decisions, particularly relating to the physiological thermal comfort levels of each visitor. To address this imbalance, this paper focuses on ambient thermal environments and visitor behavior at the Phoenix and Atlanta zoos. Daily visitor attendances at each zoo from September 2001 to June 2011, were paired with the Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET to help measure the thermal conditions most likely experienced by zoo visitors. PET was calculated using hourly atmospheric variables of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and cloud cover from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. at each zoological park location and then classified based on thermal comfort categories established by the American Society of Heating and Air Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE. The major findings suggested that in both Phoenix and Atlanta, optimal thermal regimes for peak attendance occurred within “slightly warm” and “warm” PET-based thermal categories. Additionally, visitors seemed to be averse to the most commonly occurring thermal extreme since visitors appeared to avoid the zoo on excessively hot days in Phoenix and excessively cold days in Atlanta. Finally, changes in the daily weather impacted visitor attendance as both zoos experienced peak attendance on days with dynamic changes in the thermal regimes and depressed attendances on days with stagnant thermal regimes. Building a better understanding of how weather events impact visitor demand can help improve our assessments of the potential impacts future climate change may have on tourism.

Modification of input datasets for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction based on large scale climatic indices and weather generator

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šípek, Václav; Daňhelka, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 528, September (2015), s. 720-733 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : seasonal forecasting * ESP * large-scale climate * weather generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.043, year: 2015

Sustainable Algae Biodiesel Production in Cold Climates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rudras Baliga

2010-01-01

Full Text Available This life cycle assessment aims to determine the most suitable operating conditions for algae biodiesel production in cold climates to minimize energy consumption and environmental impacts. Two hypothetical photobioreactor algae production and biodiesel plants located in Upstate New York (USA are modeled. The photobioreactor is assumed to be housed within a greenhouse that is located adjacent to a fossil fuel or biomass power plant that can supply waste heat and flue gas containing CO2 as a primary source of carbon. Model results show that the biodiesel areal productivity is high (19 to 25 L of BD/m2/yr. The total life cycle energy consumption was between 15 and 23 MJ/L of algae BD and 20 MJ/L of soy BD. Energy consumption and air emissions for algae biodiesel are substantially lower than soy biodiesel when waste heat was utilized. Algae's most substantial contribution is a significant decrease in the petroleum consumed to make the fuel.

Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s.

Science.gov (United States)

Hajat, Shakoor; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd

2014-07-01

The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Climate - Change - Alps. Tourism and regional planning in weather load. Proceedings; Klima - Wandel - Alpen. Tourismus und Raumplanung im Wetterstress. Tagungsband

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2006-07-01

Within the international annual conference ''Climate-Change-Alps Tourism and regional planning under weather load'' between 18th and 20th May, 2006, in Bad Hindelang (federal Republic of Germany) lectures were held to the following topics: (a) CIPRA resolution; (b) Future in the Alps - Distribution of knowledge, networking of people; (c) Climatic change and climate protection; (d) Planning of nature dangers; (e) Tourism.

Modification of input datasets for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction based on large scale climatic indices and weather generator

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šípek, Václav; Daňhelka, J.

2015-01-01

Roč. 528, September (2015), s. 720-733 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : sea sonal forecasting * ESP * large-scale climate * weather generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 3.043, year: 2015

NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

Science.gov (United States)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

2013-12-01

provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

DEVELOPMENT OF A HIGH PERFORMANCE COLD CLIMATE HEAT PUMP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Horton, W. Travis [Purdue University; Groll, Eckhard A. [Purdue University; Braun, James E. [Purdue University

2014-06-01

The primary goals of the proposed project were to develop, test, and evaluate a high performance and cost-effective vapor compression air-source heat pump for use in cold climate regions. Vapor compression heat pumps are a proven technology, and have been used for many years to meet heating requirements for buildings in residential, commercial, and industrial applications. However, in climate regions that experience very low outdoor ambient temperatures both the heating capacity and coefficient of performance (COP) of traditional air-source vapor compression heat pumps drops dramatically with a decrease in the outdoor air temperature. The efficiency of heat pumping equipment has improved substantially over the past 20 years; however, the efficiencies of the highest rated equipment on the market are approaching practical limits that cannot be surpassed without modifications to the basic cycle and possibly the use of additional hardware. In this report, three technologies to improve the efficiency of vapor compression systems are described. These are a) vapor injected compression, b) oil flooded compression and c) hybrid flow control of the evaporator. Compressor prototypes for both, oil flooded and vapor injected compression were developed by Emerson Climate Technologies. For the oil flooded compressor, the oil injection port location was optimized and an internal oil separator was added using several design iterations. After initial testing at Emerson Climate Technologies, further testing was done at Purdue University, and compressor models were developed. These models were then integrated into a system model to determine the achievable improvement of seasonal energy efficiency (SEER) for Minneapolis (Minnesota) climate. For the oil flooded compression, a 34% improvement in seasonal energy efficiency was found while a 21% improvement in seasonal energy efficiency ratio was found for the vapor injected compression. It was found that one benefit of both tested

A second generation climate index for tourism (CIT): specification and verification.

Science.gov (United States)

de Freitas, C R; Scott, Daniel; McBoyle, Geoff

2008-05-01

Climate is a key resource for many types of tourism and as such can be measured and evaluated. An index approach is required for this task because of the multifaceted nature of weather and the complex ways that weather variables come together to give meaning to climate for tourism. Here we address the deficiencies of past indices by devising a theoretically sound and empirically tested method that integrates the various facets of climate and weather into a single index called the Climate Index for Tourism (CIT). CIT rates the climate resource for activities that are highly climate/weather sensitive, specifically, beach "sun, sea and sand" (3S) holidays. CIT integrates thermal (T), aesthetic (A) and physical (P) facets of weather, which are combined in a weather typology matrix to determine a climate satisfaction rating that ranges from very poor (1=unacceptable) to very good (7=optimal). Parameter A refers to sky condition and P to rain or high wind. T is the body-atmosphere energy balance that integrates the environmental and physiological thermal variables, such as solar heat load, heat loss by convection (wind) and by evaporation (sweating), longwave radiation exchange and metabolic heat (activity level). Rather than use T as a net energy (calorific) value, CIT requires that it be expressed as thermal sensation using the standard nine-point ASHRAE scale ("very hot" to "very cold"). In this way, any of the several body-atmosphere energy balance schemes available may be used, maximizing the flexibility of the index. A survey (N=331) was used to validate the initial CIT. Respondents were asked to rate nine thermal states (T) with different sky conditions (A). They were also asked to assess the impact of high winds or prolonged rain on the perceived quality of the overall weather condition. The data was analysed statistically to complete the weather typology matrix, which covered every possible combination of T, A and P. Conditions considered to be optimal (CIT

Extreme weather events: Should drinking water quality management systems adapt to changing risk profiles?

Science.gov (United States)

Khan, Stuart J; Deere, Daniel; Leusch, Frederic D L; Humpage, Andrew; Jenkins, Madeleine; Cunliffe, David

2015-11-15

Among the most widely predicted and accepted consequences of global climate change are increases in both the frequency and severity of a variety of extreme weather events. Such weather events include heavy rainfall and floods, cyclones, droughts, heatwaves, extreme cold, and wildfires, each of which can potentially impact drinking water quality by affecting water catchments, storage reservoirs, the performance of water treatment processes or the integrity of distribution systems. Drinking water guidelines, such as the Australian Drinking Water Guidelines and the World Health Organization Guidelines for Drinking-water Quality, provide guidance for the safe management of drinking water. These documents present principles and strategies for managing risks that may be posed to drinking water quality. While these principles and strategies are applicable to all types of water quality risks, very little specific attention has been paid to the management of extreme weather events. We present a review of recent literature on water quality impacts of extreme weather events and consider practical opportunities for improved guidance for water managers. We conclude that there is a case for an enhanced focus on the management of water quality impacts from extreme weather events in future revisions of water quality guidance documents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The NOAA Local Climate Analysis Tool - An Application in Support of a Weather Ready Nation

Science.gov (United States)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Horsfall, F. M.

2012-12-01

Citizens across the U.S., including decision makers from the local to the national level, have a multitude of questions about climate, such as the current state and how that state fits into the historical context, and more importantly, how climate will impact them, especially with regard to linkages to extreme weather events. Developing answers to these types of questions for locations has typically required extensive work to gather data, conduct analyses, and generate relevant explanations and graphics. Too frequently providers don't have ready access to or knowledge of reliable, trusted data sets, nor sound, scientifically accepted analysis techniques such that they can provide a rapid response to queries they receive. In order to support National Weather Service (NWS) local office forecasters with information they need to deliver timely responses to climate-related questions from their customers, we have developed the Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT). LCAT uses the principles of artificial intelligence to respond to queries, in particular, through use of machine technology that responds intelligently to input from users. A user translates customer questions into primary variables and issues and LCAT pulls the most relevant data and analysis techniques to provide information back to the user, who in turn responds to their customer. Most responses take on the order of 10 seconds, which includes providing statistics, graphical displays of information, translations for users, metadata, and a summary of the user request to LCAT. Applications in Phase I of LCAT, which is targeted for the NWS field offices, include Climate Change Impacts, Climate Variability Impacts, Drought Analysis and Impacts, Water Resources Applications, Attribution of Extreme Events, and analysis techniques such as time series analysis, trend analysis, compositing, and correlation and regression techniques. Data accessed by LCAT are homogenized historical COOP and Climate Prediction Center

Weather Derivatives – Origin, Types and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Piotr Binkowski

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The number of companies that are exposed to the revenues loss risk caused by weather variability is still increasing. The businesses that are mostly exposed to weather risk are following: energy, agriculture, constructions and transport. That situation has initiated dynamic growth of weather derivatives markets as well as the awareness of the weather risk among the market participants. Presently, the weather derivatives markets evaluate rapidly in all the mature economies: USA, Asia and Europe. Constructing weather derivatives relies on qu- antifying climate factors in the form of indexes, what is quite simple task, more difficultly can be gathering precise historical data of required climate factors. Taking into consideration so far development of derivatives especially the financial derivatives based on different types of indexes financial market has at disposal wide range of different types of proved derivatives (futures, forward, options, swaps, which can be successfully utilised on the weather-driven markets both for hedging weather risk and speculating.

Longing for Clouds - Does Beautiful Weather have to be Fine?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mădălina Diaconu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Any attempt to outline a meteorological aesthetics centered on so-called beautiful weather has to overcome several difficulties: In everyday life, the appreciation of the weather is mostly related to practical interests or reduced to the ideal of stereotypical fine weather that is conceived according to blue-sky thinking irrespective of climate diversity. Also, an aesthetics of fine weather seems, strictly speaking, to be impossible given that such weather conditions usually allow humans to focus on aspects other than weather, which contradicts the autotelic character of beauty. The unreflective equation of beautiful weather with moderately sunny weather and a cloudless sky also collides with the psychological need for variation: even living in a “paradisal” climate would be condemned to end in monotony. Finally, whereas fine weather is related in modern realistic literature to cosmic harmony and a universal natural order, contemporary literary examples show that in the age of the climate change, fine weather may be deceitful and its passive contemplation, irresponsible. This implies the necessity of a reflective aesthetic attitude on weather, as influenced by art, literature, and science, which discovers the poetics of bad weather and the wonder that underlies average weather conditions.

Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2015-01-01

The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

Mechanical ventilation with heat recovery in cold climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kragh, Jesper; Rose, Jørgen; Svendsen, Svend

2005-01-01

Building ventilation is necessary to achieve a healthy and comfortable indoor environment, but as energy prices continue to rise it is necessary to reduce the energy consumption. Using mechanical ventilation with heat recovery reduces the ventilation heat loss significantly, but in cold climates...... freezes to ice. The analysis of measurements from existing ventilation systems with heat recovery used in single-family houses in Denmark and a test of a standard heat recovery unit in the laboratory have clearly shown that this problem occurs when the outdoor temperature gets below approximately –5º......C. Due to the ice problem mechanical ventilation systems with heat recovery are often installed with an extra preheating system reducing the energy saving potential significantly. New designs of high efficient heat recovery units capable of continuously defrosting the ice without using extra energy...

Weather Impacts on Natural, Social and Economic Systems (WISE). Part I. Sectoral Analysis of Climate Impacts in Italy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galeotti, M.; Goria, A.; Spantidaki, E.; Mombrini, P.

2004-02-01

This paper focuses on the results of the research work carried out by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) within the WISE project. This project aims at investigating the effects and the impacts of extreme weather events, particularly very warm summers, mild winters and storms, on the socio-economic systems of European countries. The output consists of a series of empirical studies, both of quantitative and qualitative descriptive nature. The work of FEEM in the WISE project covers the quantitative analysis of the impacts of climate extremes on the socio-economic system in Italy and the analysis of individuals' perception of climate extremes based on results from individuals' surveys. In this paper is presented the statistical modelling of the impact of weather, through quantitative analysis of activity time series. In particular, the core sectors analysed include fires, health, energy use, tourism and agriculture

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Greenough, G; McGeehin, M; Bernard, S M; Trtanj, J; Riad, J; Engelberg, D

2001-05-01

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

A geochemical record of the link between chemical weathering and the East Asian summer monsoon during the late Holocene preserved in lacustrine sediments from Poyang Lake, central China

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Chao; Wei, Gangjian; Li, Wuxian; Liu, Ying

2018-04-01

This paper presents relatively high-resolution geochemical records spanning the past 4000 cal yr BP obtained from the lacustrine sediments of Poyang Lake in central China. The variations in the intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are traced using the K/Na, Ti/Na, Al/K, kaolinite/illite and clay/feldspar ratios, together with the chemical index of alteration (CIA), as indicators of chemical weathering. During the last 4000 years, the proxy records of chemical weathering from Poyang Lake exhibit an overall enhanced trend, consistent with regional hydrological changes in previous independent records. Further comparisons and analyses demonstrate that regional moisture variations in central China is inversely correlated with the EASM intensity, with weak EASM generating high precipitation in central China. Our data reveal three intervals of dramatically dry climatic conditions (i.e., ca. 4000-3200 cal yr BP, ca. 2800-2400 cal yr BP, and ca. 500-200 cal yr BP). A period of weak chemical weathering, related to cold and dry climatic conditions, occurred during the Little Ice Age (LIA), whereas more intense chemical weathering, reflecting warm and humid climatic conditions, was recorded during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). Besides, an intensification of chemical weathering in Poyang Lake during the late Holocene agrees well with strong ENSO activity, suggesting that moisture variations in central China may be predominantly driven by ENSO variability.

Erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico - the effects of climate and weather

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

2016-04-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic

How climate and weather affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

2015-12-01

Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic

Weather In Some Islands

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

王良华

2007-01-01

There are four seasons in a year. When spring comes, the weather is mild(温和的). Summer comes after spring. Summer is the hottest season of the year. Autumn follows summer. It is the best season of the year. Winter is the coldest season of the year. Some islands(岛) have their own particular(特别的) seasons because their weather is very much affected(影响) by the oceans(海洋) around them. In Britain, winter is not very cold and summer is not very hot.

Regulatory applications of the relationships between natural gas usage and weather; Climate information for the application of solar energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gray, J.A.; Patterson, D.L.; Proctor, M.S.; Warren, H.E.; Robles-Gil, S.

1997-05-01

This books includes two articles, each with an abstract dealing with the economic aspects of natural gas usage and solar energy usage both depending on the data about weather forecasting. The demand of natural gas depends on weather and the analysis of gas usage is required in a rate case in order to properly estimate the volumes and revenues that would be recovered from current rate under conditions of normal weather. The actual uses of the principal types of solar energy systems, based on their climatic, technological and economical context are needed for future estimation concerning this energy sources which would have a more significant role in the future

The impact of extreme weather conditions on the life of settlers in the Central Russia in X - XVI centuries

Science.gov (United States)

Graves, Irina; Nizovtsev, Viacheslav; Erman, Natalia

2017-04-01

A special place in the reconstruction of climate dynamics takes an analysis of extraordinary meteorological phenomena. These extreme weather events in the first place impact the functioning of, the rhythm and dynamics of the landscapes and determine not only the features of economy, but also certain aspects of historical development. In the analysis of primary chronicles and published data, along with the direct climatic characteristics (hot, warm, cold, wet, dry, etc.) a lot of attention was paid to abnormal (extreme) natural phenomena and indirect indications of climate variability (floods, crop failures, hunger years, epidemics, etc.). As a result, tables were compiled reflecting climatic basic characteristics and extremes for each year since 900 BC. X-XI centuries was a period of minor climatic optimum - the climate was warmer and drier than the modern one. In addition to higher temperatures (up to 1-3C above than mordern), during this period there were no severe winters. A small amount of summer rainfall has led to a reduction in the number of small water reservoirs and flooding rivers. This is evidenced by Slavic settlements on floodplains of a number of rivers in the Moscow region. It is in this favorable climatic time the way "from the Vikings to the Greeks" was open. Catastrophic natural events had a minimum repeatability. For example, during the X century the Russian chronicles mentioned 41 extreme event, but for the XIII century - 102. Most of the villages and towns were located on the low floodplain terraces of rivers. The main farmland was concentrated there as well. In the "period of contrasts" (XIII - XIV centuries) there was an increase of intra-seasonal climate variability, humidity and widespread reduction in summer temperatures by 1-2C. The number of extreme weather events increased: cold prolonged winters, long rains in summers, cold weather returns in the early summer, early frosts in late summer - early autumn. Such conditions often

Dynamics of 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming event and its impact on cold weather over Eurasia: Role of planetary wave reflection.

Science.gov (United States)

Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Zelin, Cai; Pogoreltsev, Alexander Ivanovich; Wei, Ke

2016-04-07

In the present study, we investigate the impact of stratospheric planetary wave reflection on tropospheric weather over Central Eurasia during the 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. We analyze EP fluxes and Plumb wave activity fluxes to study the two and three dimensional aspects of wave propagation, respectively. The 2013 SSW event is excited by the combined influence of wavenumber 1 (WN1) and wavenumber 2 (WN2) planetary waves, which makes the event an unusual one and seems to have significant impact on tropospheric weather regime. We observe an extraordinary development of a ridge over the Siberian Tundra and the North Pacific during first development stage (last week of December 2012) and later from the North Atlantic in the second development stage (first week of January 2013), and these waves appear to be responsible for the excitation of the WN2 pattern during the SSW. The wave packets propagated upward and were then reflected back down to central Eurasia due to strong negative wind shear in the upper stratospheric polar jet, caused by the SSW event. Waves that propagated downward led to the formation of a deep trough over Eurasia and brought extreme cold weather over Kazakhstan, the Southern part of Russia and the Northwestern part of China during mid-January 2013.

A review of multimodel superensemble forecasting for weather, seasonal climate, and hurricanes

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnamurti, T. N.; Kumar, V.; Simon, A.; Bhardwaj, A.; Ghosh, T.; Ross, R.

2016-06-01

This review provides a summary of work in the area of ensemble forecasts for weather, climate, oceans, and hurricanes. This includes a combination of multiple forecast model results that does not dwell on the ensemble mean but uses a unique collective bias reduction procedure. A theoretical framework for this procedure is provided, utilizing a suite of models that is constructed from the well-known Lorenz low-order nonlinear system. A tutorial that includes a walk-through table and illustrates the inner workings of the multimodel superensemble's principle is provided. Systematic errors in a single deterministic model arise from a host of features that range from the model's initial state (data assimilation), resolution, representation of physics, dynamics, and ocean processes, local aspects of orography, water bodies, and details of the land surface. Models, in their diversity of representation of such features, end up leaving unique signatures of systematic errors. The multimodel superensemble utilizes as many as 10 million weights to take into account the bias errors arising from these diverse features of multimodels. The design of a single deterministic forecast models that utilizes multiple features from the use of the large volume of weights is provided here. This has led to a better understanding of the error growths and the collective bias reductions for several of the physical parameterizations within diverse models, such as cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer physics, and radiative transfer. A number of examples for weather, seasonal climate, hurricanes and sub surface oceanic forecast skills of member models, the ensemble mean, and the superensemble are provided.

Post-Palaeozoic evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda by tectonically controlled deep weathering and stripping

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, R. G.; Howard, K. W. F.

1998-11-01

A model for the evolution of weathered landsurfaces in Uganda is developed using available geotectonic, climatic, sedimentological and chronological data. The model demonstrates the pivotal role of tectonic uplift in inducing cycles of stripping, and tectonic quiescence for cycles of deep weathering. It is able to account for the development of key landforms, such as inselbergs and duricrust-capped plateaux, which previous hypotheses of landscape evolution that are based on climatic or eustatic controls are unable to explain. Development of the Ugandan landscape is traced back to the Permian. Following late Palaeozoic glaciation, a trend towards warmer and more humid climates through the Mesozoic enabled deep weathering of the Jurassic/mid-Cretaceous surface in Uganda during a period of prolonged tectonic quiescence. Uplift associated with the opening South Atlantic Ocean terminated this cycle and instigated a cycle of stripping between the mid-Cretaceous and early Miocene. Deep weathering on the succeeding Miocene to recent (African) surface has occurred from Miocene to present but has been interrupted in the areas adjacent to the western rift where development of a new drainage base level has prompted cycles of stripping in the Miocene and Pleistocene.

What is the Climate?

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, S.; Schertzer, D.

2009-04-01

Although meteorology and climatology are increasingly considered to be distinct sciences, the actual boundary between "climate scales" and "meteorological scales" is not clear and there are no universally accepted definitions. It is still hard to improve upon the old adage "the climate is what you expect, the weather is what you get". For example [Committee on Radiative Forcing Effects on Climate, 2005], the National Academy of Science essentially accepts this ("Climate is conventionally defined as the long-term statistics of the weather") proposing only to expand the definition of climate to encompass the oceanic and terrestrial spheres as well as chemical components of the atmosphere. However the weather itself has nontrivial statistics so that the key weather/climate distinction depend on apparently subjective distinction between long-term and short-term statistics. In this talk, we give an objective basis to the weather/climate distinction with the help of an anisotropic space-time turbulence theory and both lidar satellite radiances, in situ spectra and numerical models of the atmosphere and reanalyses. We show that the latter accurately follow the predictions of multiplicative cascade models up to about 7-10 days. This marks the beginning of a weather/climate transition region which extends up to the cascade outer scale of about 20-30 days (depending somewhat on the atmospheric field), after which the climate regime begins. We bolster this interpretation by empirically constructing space-time (Stommel) diagrammes; we obtain near linear relations between time and (horizontal) space and theoretically predicted power law relations between the vertical and time up until the end of the weather regime (~10000 km in the horizontal, ~10 km in the vertical, ~10 days in time). We discuss the implications for weather, climate and climate trends.

Assessing Weather Curiosity in University Students

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, A. E.

2017-12-01

This research focuses upon measuring an individual's level of trait curiosity about the weather using the Weather Curiosity Scale (WCS). The measure consists of 15 self-report items that describe weather preferences and/or behaviors that people may perform more or less frequently. The author reports on two initial studies of the WCS that have used the responses of 710 undergraduate students from a large university in the southeastern United States. In the first study, factor analysis of the 15 items indicated that the measure was unidimensional - suggesting that its items singularly assessed weather curiosity. The WCS also was internally consistent as evidenced by an acceptable Cronbach's alpha, a = .81). The second study sought to identify other personality variables that may relate with the WCS scores and thus illuminate the nature of weather curiosity. Several clusters of personality variables appear to underlie the curiosity levels people exhibited, the first of which related to perceptual curiosity (r = .59). Being curious about sights, sounds, smells, and textures generally related somewhat to curiosity about weather. Two measures of trait sensitivity to environmental stimulation, the Highly Sensitive Person Scale (r = .47) and the Orientation Sensitivity Scale of the Adult Temperament Questionnaire (r = .43), also predicted weather curiosity levels. Finally, possessing extraverted personality traits (r = .34) and an intense style of experiencing one's emotions (r = .33) related to weather curiosity. How can this measure be used in K-12 or post-secondary settings to further climate literacy? First, the WCS can identify students with natural curiosities about weather and climate so these students may be given more challenging instruction that will leverage their natural interests. Second, high-WCS students may function as weather and climate ambassadors during inquiry-based learning activities and thus help other students who are not as oriented to the

Quantitative and creative design tools for urban design in cold and windy climates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koss, Holger; Jensen, Lotte Bjerregaard; Nielsen, Thomas Alexander Sick

2014-01-01

between the design processes and the academic knowledge available is a focus area. The effects of climate change and a general higher demand for quantitative assessment of urban planning proposals in hard climatic locations have created a demand for research based design advice. The paper will present......In cold and windy climates, the quality of the urban spaces is severely challenged. A design process with a very high level of information regarding wind, sun, daylight and water from the earliest of the design process will help create the most optimized design. For the last couple of years...... in academic ‘silos’ where little attention has been made in regards to architectural design processes. Simulation tools were developed that can render a larger amount of information available in a short time and thus can keep pace with an ongoing design process in an architectural studio. Bridging the gap...

Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sonja Kivinen

2017-02-01

Full Text Available We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013, compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days. A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

Differences in the importance of weather and weather-based decisions among campers in Ontario parks (Canada)

Science.gov (United States)

Hewer, Micah J.; Scott, Daniel J.; Gough, William A.

2017-10-01

Parks and protected areas represent an important resource for tourism in Canada, in which camping is a common recreational activity. The important relationship between weather and climate with recreation and tourism has been widely acknowledged within the academic literature. Howbeit, the need for activity-specific assessments has been identified as an on-going need for future research in the field of tourism climatology. Furthermore, very little is known about the interrelationships between personal characteristics and socio-demographics with weather preferences and behavioural thresholds. This study uses a stated climate preferences approach (survey responses) to explore differences in the importance of weather and related weather-based decisions among summer campers in Ontario parks. Statistically significant differences were found among campers for each of the four dependent variables tested in this study. Physically active campers placed greater importance on weather but were still more tolerant of adverse weather conditions. Older campers placed greater importance on weather. Campers travelling shorter distances placed greater importance on weather and were more likely to leave the park early due to adverse weather. Campers staying for longer periods of time were less likely to leave early due to weather and were willing to endure longer durations of adverse weather conditions. Beginner campers placed greater importance on weather, were more likely to leave early due to weather and recorded lower temporal weather thresholds. The results of this study contribute to the study of tourism climatology by furthering understanding of how personal characteristics such as gender, age, activity selection, trip duration, distance travelled, travel experience and life cycles affect weather preferences and decisions, focusing this time on recreational camping in a park tourism context.

Designing and Implementing Weather Generators as Web Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rassarin Chinnachodteeranun

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Climate and weather realizations are essential inputs for simulating crop growth and yields to analyze the risks associated with future conditions. To simplify the procedure of generating weather realizations and make them available over the Internet, we implemented novel mechanisms for providing weather generators as web services, as well as a mechanism for sharing identical weather realizations given a climatological information. A web service for preparing long-term climate data was implemented based on an international standard, Sensor Observation Service (SOS. The weather generator services, which are the core components of the framework, analyze climatological data, and can take seasonal climate forecasts as inputs for generating weather realizations. The generated weather realizations are encoded in a standard format, which are ready for use to crop modeling. All outputs are generated in SOS standard, which broadens the extent of data sharing and interoperability with other sectoral applications, e.g., water resources management. These services facilitate the development of other applications requiring input weather realizations, as these can be obtained easily by just calling the service. The workload of analysts related to data preparation and handling of legacy weather generator programs can be reduced. The architectural design and implementation presented here can be used as a prototype for constructing further services on top of an interoperable sensor network system.

Cold Climate Heat Pumps Using Tandem Compressors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen, Bo [ORNL; Abdelaziz, Omar [ORNL; Rice, C Keith [ORNL; Baxter, Van D [ORNL

2016-01-01

In cold climate zones, e.g. ASHRAE climate regions IV and V, conventional electric air-source heat pumps (ASHP) do not work well, due to high compressor discharge temperatures, large pressure ratios and inadequate heating capacities at low ambient temperatures. Consequently, significant use of auxiliary strip heating is required to meet the building heating load. We introduce innovative ASHP technologies as part of continuing efforts to eliminate auxiliary strip heat use and maximize heating COP with acceptable cost-effectiveness and reliability. These innovative ASHP were developed using tandem compressors, which are capable of augmenting heating capacity at low temperatures and maintain superior part-load operation efficiency at moderate temperatures. Two options of tandem compressors were studied; the first employs two identical, single-speed compressors, and the second employs two identical, vapor-injection compressors. The investigations were based on system modeling and laboratory evaluation. Both designs have successfully met the performance criteria. Laboratory evaluation showed that the tandem, single-speed compressor ASHP system is able to achieve heating COP = 4.2 at 47 F (8.3 C), COP = 2.9 at 17 F (-8.3 C), and 76% rated capacity and COP = 1.9 at -13 F (-25 C). This yields a HSPF = 11.0 (per AHRI 210/240). The tandem, vapor-injection ASHP is able to reach heating COP = 4.4 at 47 F, COP = 3.1 at 17 F, and 88% rated capacity and COP = 2.0 at -13 F. This yields a HSPF = 12.0. The system modeling and further laboratory evaluation are presented in the paper.

Municipalities' Preparedness for Weather Hazards and Response to Weather Warnings.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehiriz, Kaddour; Gosselin, Pierre

2016-01-01

The study of the management of weather-related disaster risks by municipalities has attracted little attention even though these organizations play a key role in protecting the population from extreme meteorological conditions. This article contributes to filling this gap with new evidence on the level and determinants of Quebec municipalities' preparedness for weather hazards and response to related weather warnings. Using survey data from municipal emergency management coordinators and secondary data on the financial and demographic characteristics of municipalities, the study shows that most Quebec municipalities are sufficiently prepared for weather hazards and undertake measures to protect the population when informed of imminent extreme weather events. Significant differences between municipalities were noted though. Specifically, the level of preparedness was positively correlated with the municipalities' capacity and population support for weather-related disaster management policies. In addition, the risk of weather-related disasters increases the preparedness level through its effect on population support. We also found that the response to weather warnings depended on the risk of weather-related disasters, the preparedness level and the quality of weather warnings. These results highlight areas for improvement in the context of increasing frequency and/or severity of such events with current climate change.

Projected changes of extreme weather events in the eastern United States based on a high resolution climate modeling system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao, Y; Fu, J S; Drake, J B; Liu, Y; Lamarque, J-F

2012-01-01

This study is the first evaluation of dynamical downscaling using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model on a 4 km × 4 km high resolution scale in the eastern US driven by the new Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM v1.0). First we examined the global and regional climate model results, and corrected an inconsistency in skin temperature during the downscaling process by modifying the land/sea mask. In comparison with observations, WRF shows statistically significant improvement over CESM in reproducing extreme weather events, with improvement for heat wave frequency estimation as high as 98%. The fossil fuel intensive scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 was used to study a possible future mid-century climate extreme in 2057–9. Both the heat waves and the extreme precipitation in 2057–9 are more severe than the present climate in the Eastern US. The Northeastern US shows large increases in both heat wave intensity (3.05 °C higher) and annual extreme precipitation (107.3 mm more per year). (letter)

Warm Arctic episodes linked with increased frequency of extreme winter weather in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Cohen, Judah; Pfeiffer, Karl; Francis, Jennifer A

2018-03-13

Recent boreal winters have exhibited a large-scale seesaw temperature pattern characterized by an unusually warm Arctic and cold continents. Whether there is any physical link between Arctic variability and Northern Hemisphere (NH) extreme weather is an active area of research. Using a recently developed index of severe winter weather, we show that the occurrence of severe winter weather in the United States is significantly related to anomalies in pan-Arctic geopotential heights and temperatures. As the Arctic transitions from a relatively cold state to a warmer one, the frequency of severe winter weather in mid-latitudes increases through the transition. However, this relationship is strongest in the eastern US and mixed to even opposite along the western US. We also show that during mid-winter to late-winter of recent decades, when the Arctic warming trend is greatest and extends into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, severe winter weather-including both cold spells and heavy snows-became more frequent in the eastern United States.

"Share weather" : Design and evaluation of a new concept for sharing weather information

OpenAIRE

Elevant, Katarina

2013-01-01

Already centuries ago, humans had observed the weather in their everyday lives, seeking ways to understand, comprehend, and predict it. Until the present day, weather has had tremendous impacts on our lives and with climate change human civilizations as well. With new media technologies weather constitutes a part of the information services used by many residents of modern cities, people and businesses worldwide. The rise of Web 2.0, a cyberspace where individuals may connect and interact und...

Validating Satellite-Retrieved Cloud Properties for Weather and Climate Applications

Science.gov (United States)

Minnis, P.; Bedka, K. M.; Smith, W., Jr.; Yost, C. R.; Bedka, S. T.; Palikonda, R.; Spangenberg, D.; Sun-Mack, S.; Trepte, Q.; Dong, X.; Xi, B.

2014-12-01

Cloud properties determined from satellite imager radiances are increasingly used in weather and climate applications, particularly in nowcasting, model assimilation and validation, trend monitoring, and precipitation and radiation analyses. The value of using the satellite-derived cloud parameters is determined by the accuracy of the particular parameter for a given set of conditions, such as viewing and illumination angles, surface background, and cloud type and structure. Because of the great variety of those conditions and of the sensors used to monitor clouds, determining the accuracy or uncertainties in the retrieved cloud parameters is a daunting task. Sensitivity studies of the retrieved parameters to the various inputs for a particular cloud type are helpful for understanding the errors associated with the retrieval algorithm relative to the plane-parallel world assumed in most of the model clouds that serve as the basis for the retrievals. Real world clouds, however, rarely fit the plane-parallel mold and generate radiances that likely produce much greater errors in the retrieved parameter than can be inferred from sensitivity analyses. Thus, independent, empirical methods are used to provide a more reliable uncertainty analysis. At NASA Langley, cloud properties are being retrieved from both geostationary (GEO) and low-earth orbiting (LEO) satellite imagers for climate monitoring and model validation as part of the NASA CERES project since 2000 and from AVHRR data since 1978 as part of the NOAA CDR program. Cloud properties are also being retrieved in near-real time globally from both GEO and LEO satellites for weather model assimilation and nowcasting for hazards such as aircraft icing. This paper discusses the various independent datasets and approaches that are used to assessing the imager-based satellite cloud retrievals. These include, but are not limited to data from ARM sites, CloudSat, and CALIPSO. This paper discusses the use of the various

Crossing the chasm: how to develop weather and climate models for next generation computers?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. N. Lawrence

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Weather and climate models are complex pieces of software which include many individual components, each of which is evolving under pressure to exploit advances in computing to enhance some combination of a range of possible improvements (higher spatio-temporal resolution, increased fidelity in terms of resolved processes, more quantification of uncertainty, etc.. However, after many years of a relatively stable computing environment with little choice in processing architecture or programming paradigm (basically X86 processors using MPI for parallelism, the existing menu of processor choices includes significant diversity, and more is on the horizon. This computational diversity, coupled with ever increasing software complexity, leads to the very real possibility that weather and climate modelling will arrive at a chasm which will separate scientific aspiration from our ability to develop and/or rapidly adapt codes to the available hardware. In this paper we review the hardware and software trends which are leading us towards this chasm, before describing current progress in addressing some of the tools which we may be able to use to bridge the chasm. This brief introduction to current tools and plans is followed by a discussion outlining the scientific requirements for quality model codes which have satisfactory performance and portability, while simultaneously supporting productive scientific evolution. We assert that the existing method of incremental model improvements employing small steps which adjust to the changing hardware environment is likely to be inadequate for crossing the chasm between aspiration and hardware at a satisfactory pace, in part because institutions cannot have all the relevant expertise in house. Instead, we outline a methodology based on large community efforts in engineering and standardisation, which will depend on identifying a taxonomy of key activities – perhaps based on existing efforts to develop

Porphyrin-Based Symmetric Redox-Flow Batteries towards Cold-Climate Energy Storage.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Ting; Pan, Zeng; Miao, Licheng; Chen, Chengcheng; Han, Mo; Shang, Zhenfeng; Chen, Jun

2018-03-12

Electrochemical energy storage with redox-flow batteries (RFBs) under subzero temperature is of great significance for the use of renewable energy in cold regions. However, RFBs are generally used above 10 °C. Herein we present non-aqueous organic RFBs based on 5,10,15,20-tetraphenylporphyrin (H 2 TPP) as a bipolar redox-active material (anode: [H 2 TPP] 2- /H 2 TPP, cathode: H 2 TPP/[H 2 TPP] 2+ ) and a Y-zeolite-poly(vinylidene fluoride) (Y-PVDF) ion-selective membrane with high ionic conductivity as a separator. The constructed RFBs exhibit a high volumetric capacity of 8.72 Ah L -1 with a high voltage of 2.83 V and excellent cycling stability (capacity retention exceeding 99.98 % per cycle) in the temperature range between 20 and -40 °C. Our study highlights principles for the design of RFBs that operate at low temperatures, thus offering a promising approach to electrochemical energy storage under cold-climate conditions. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Simulated vs. empirical weather responsiveness of crop yields: US evidence and implications for the agricultural impacts of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Mistry, Malcolm N.; Wing, Ian Sue; De Cian, Enrica

2017-07-01

Global gridded crop models (GGCMs) are the workhorse of assessments of the agricultural impacts of climate change. Yet the changes in crop yields projected by different models in response to the same meteorological forcing can differ substantially. Through an inter-method comparison, we provide a first glimpse into the origins and implications of this divergence—both among GGCMs and between GGCMs and historical observations. We examine yields of rainfed maize, wheat, and soybeans simulated by six GGCMs as part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project-Fast Track (ISIMIP-FT) exercise, comparing 1981-2004 hindcast yields over the coterminous United States (US) against US Department of Agriculture (USDA) time series for about 1000 counties. Leveraging the empirical climate change impacts literature, we estimate reduced-form econometric models of crop yield responses to temperature and precipitation exposures for both GGCMs and observations. We find that up to 60% of the variance in both simulated and observed yields is attributable to weather variation. A majority of the GGCMs have difficulty reproducing the observed distribution of percentage yield anomalies, and exhibit aggregate responses that show yields to be more weather-sensitive than in the observational record over the predominant range of temperature and precipitation conditions. This disparity is largely attributable to heterogeneity in GGCMs’ responses, as opposed to uncertainty in historical weather forcings, and is responsible for widely divergent impacts of climate on future crop yields.

CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) Science: Progress thus far and the next steps

Science.gov (United States)

Pallamraju, D.; Kozyra, J.; Basu, S.

Climate and Weather of the Sun Earth System CAWSES is the current program of Scientific Committee for Solar Terrestrial Physics SCOSTEP for 2004 - 2008 The main aim of CAWSES is to bring together scientists from various nations to address the coupled and global nature of the Sun-Earth System phenomena Towards that end CAWSES provides a platform for international cooperation in observations data analysis theory and modeling There has been active international participation thus far with endorsement of the national CAWSES programs in some countries and many scientists around the globe actively volunteering their time in this effort The CAWSES Science Steering Group has organized the CAWSES program into five Themes for better execution of its science Solar Influence on Climate Space Weather Science and Applications Atmospheric Coupling Processes Space Climatology and Capacity Building and Education CAWSES will cooperate with International programs that focus on the Sun-Earth system science and at the same time compliment the work of programs whose scope is beyond the realm of CAWSES This talk will briefly review the science goals of CAWSES provide salient results from different Themes with emphasis on those from the Space Weather Theme This talk will also indicate the next steps that are being planned in this program and solicit inputs from the community for the science efforts to be carried out in the future

Prevention and Management of Cold-Weather Injuries

Science.gov (United States)

2005-04-01

49 d. After an initial stimulation of respiration with mild hypothermia (leading to respiratory alkalosis ), there is a progressive decrease...nonevaporated sweat will reduce clothing insulation and possibly form ice crystals. Breathing cold air can slightly exacerbate respiratory water loss... Respiratory . (1) Upper airway temperatures, which normally remain unchanged during exercise under temperate conditions, can decrease substantially

Enhanced Weathering Strategies for Stabilizing Climate and Averting Ocean Acidification - Supplementary Information

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Lyla L.; Quirk, Joe; Thorley, Rachel M. S.; Kharecha, Pushker A.; Hansen, James; Ridgwell, Andy; Lomas, Mark R.; Banwart, Steve A.; Beerling, David J.

2015-01-01

Chemical breakdown of rocks, weathering, is an important but very slow part of the carbon cycle that ultimately leads to CO2 being locked up in carbonates on the ocean floor. Artificial acceleration of this carbon sink via distribution of pulverized silicate rocks across terrestrial landscapes may help offset anthropogenic CO2 emissions. We show that idealized enhanced weathering scenarios over less than a third of tropical land could cause significant drawdown of atmospheric CO2 and ameliorate ocean acidification by 2100. Global carbon cycle modelling driven by ensemble Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) projections of twenty-first-century climate change (RCP8.5, business-as-usual; RCP4.5, medium-level mitigation) indicates that enhanced weathering could lower atmospheric CO2 by 30-300 ppm by 2100, depending mainly on silicate rock application rate (1 kg or 5 kg m(exp. -2) yr (exp -1)) and composition. At the higher application rate, end-of-century ocean acidification is reversed under RCP4.5 and reduced by about two-thirds under RCP8.5. Additionally, surface ocean aragonite saturation state, a key control on coral calcification rates, is maintained above 3.5 throughout the low latitudes, thereby helping maintain the viability of tropical coral reef ecosystems. However, we highlight major issues of cost, social acceptability, and potential unanticipated consequences that will limit utilization and emphasize the need for urgent efforts to phase down fossil fuel emissions.

Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

Science.gov (United States)

Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

2012-04-01

Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

Development of a joint Nordic master in cold climate engineering within the Nordic five tech alliance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkelund, Gunvor Marie; Tuhkuri, Jukka; Høyland, Knut V.

2017-01-01

, Nordic Five Tech, which was established in 2006 with the goal of utilizing the shared and complementary strengths of the universities and creating synergies, also within education in the form of joint master programmes. The Cold Climate Engineering students study for one year at two of the universities...

Spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in sympatric bat populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Linton, Danielle M; Macdonald, David W

2018-04-10

Climate is known to influence breeding phenology and reproductive success in temperate-zone bats, but long-term population level studies and interspecific comparisons are rare. Investigating the extent to which intrinsic (i.e. age), and extrinsic (i.e. spring weather conditions), factors influence such key demographic parameters as the proportion of females becoming pregnant, or completing lactation, each breeding season, is vital to understanding of bat population ecology and life-history traits. Using data from 12 breeding seasons (2006-2017), encompassing the reproductive histories of 623 Myotis daubentonii and 436 Myotis nattereri adult females, we compare rates of recruitment to the breeding population and show that these species differ in their relative sensitivity to environmental conditions and climatic variation, affecting annual reproductive success at the population level. We demonstrate that (1) spring weather conditions influence breeding phenology, with warm, dry and calm conditions leading to earlier parturition dates and advanced juvenile development, whilst cold, wet and windy weather delays birth timing and juvenile growth; (2) reproductive rates in first-year females are influenced by spring weather conditions in that breeding season and in the preceding breeding season when each cohort was born. Pregnancy and lactation rates were both higher when favourable spring foraging conditions were more prevalent; (3) reproductive success increases with age in both species, but at different rates; (4) reproductive rates were consistently higher, and showed less interannual variation, in second-year and older M. daubentonii (mean 91.55% ± 0.05 SD) than M. nattereri (mean 72.74% ± 0.15 SD); (5) estimates of reproductive success at the population level were highly correlated with the size of the juvenile cohort recorded each breeding season. Improving understanding of the influence of environmental conditions, especially extreme climatic

Effect assessment of Future Climate Change on Water Resource and Snow Quality in cold snowy regions in Japan

Science.gov (United States)

Taniguchi, Y.; Nakatsugawa, M.; Kudo, K.

2017-12-01

It is predicted that the effects of global warming on everyday life will be clearly seen in cold, snowy regions such as Hokkaido. In relation to climate change, there is the concern that the warmer climate will affect not only water resources, but also local economies, in snowy areas, when air temperature increases and snowfall decreases become more marked in the future. Communities whose economies are greatly dependent on snow as a tourism resource, such as for winter sports and snow events, will lose large numbers of visitors because of the shortened winter season. This study was done as a basic study to provide basic ideas for planning adaptation strategies against climate change based on the local characteristics of a cold, snowy region. By taking dam catchment basins in Hokkaido as the subject areas and by using the climate change prediction data that correspond to IPCCAR5, the local-level influence of future climate change on snowfall and snow quality in relation to water resources and winter sports was quantitatively assessed. The water budget was examined for a dam catchment basin in Hokkaido under the present climate (September 1984 to August 2004) and under the future climate (September 2080 to August 2100) by using rainfall, snowfall and evapotranspiration estimated by the LoHAS heat and water balance analysis model.The examination found that, under the future climate, the net annual precipitation will decrease by up to 200 mm because of decreases in precipitation and in runoff height that will result from increased evapotranspiration. The predicted decrease in annual hydro potential of snowfall was considered to greatly affect the dam reservoir operation during the snowmelt season. The snow quality analysis by SNOWPACK revealed that the future snow would become granular earlier than it does at present. Most skiers' snow preferences, from best to worst, are light dry snow (i.e., fresh snow), lightly compacted snow, compacted snow and, finally, granular

The other side of the coin: urban heat islands as shields from extreme cold

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, J.; Bou-Zeid, E.

2017-12-01

Extensive studies focusing on urban heat islands (UHIs) during hot periods create a perception that UHIs are invariably hazardous to human health and the sustainability of cities. Consequently, cities have invested substantial resources to try to mitigate UHIs. These urban policies can have serious repercussions since the health risks associated with cold weather are in fact higher than for heat episodes, yet wintertime UHIs have hardly been explored. We combine ground observations from 12 U.S. cities and high-resolution simulations to show that UHIs not only warm urban areas in the winter, but also further intensify during cold waves by up to 1.32 ± 0.78 oC (mean ± standard deviation) at night. Urban heat islands serve as shelters against extreme colds and provide invaluable benefits of reducing health risks and heating demand. More importantly, our simulations indicate that standard UHI mitigation measures such as green or cool roofs reduce these cold time amenities to different extents. Cities, particularly in cool and cold temperate climates, should hence revisit policies and efforts that are only desgined for hot periods. A paradigm shift is urgently needed to give an equal weight to the wintertime benefits of UHIs in the sustainability and resilience blueprints of cities.

Aerosols and their Impact on Radiation, Clouds, Precipitation & Severe Weather Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Zhanqing; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Fan, Jiwen

2017-09-22

Aerosols, the tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere, have been in the forefront of environmental and climate change sciences as the primary atmospheric pollutant and external force affecting Earth’s weather and climate. There are two dominant mechanisms by which aerosols affect weather and climate: aerosol-radiation interactions (ARI) and aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI). ARI arises from aerosol scattering and absorption, which alters the radiation budgets of the atmosphere and surface, while ACI is rooted to the fact that aerosols serve as cloud condensation nuclei and ice nuclei. Both ARI and ACI are coupled with atmospheric dynamics to produce a chain of complex interactions with a large range of meteorological variables that influence both weather and climate. Elaborated here are the impacts of aerosols on the radiation budget, clouds (microphysics, structure, and lifetime), precipitation, and severe weather events (lightning, thunderstorms, hail, and tornados). Depending on environmental variables and aerosol properties, the effects can be both positive and negative, posing the largest uncertainties in the external forcing of the climate system. This has considerably hindered our ability in projecting future climate changes and in doing accurate numerical weather predictions.

The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Ji-Young; Gouveia, Nelson; Bravo, Mercedes A.; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Bell, Michelle L.

2016-01-01

Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1 % (95 % confidence interval 4.7, 7.6 %) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6 % (6.2, 11.1 %) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.

The impact of temperature on mortality in a subtropical city: effects of cold, heat, and heat waves in São Paulo, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Ji-Young; Gouveia, Nelson; Bravo, Mercedes A; de Freitas, Clarice Umbelino; Bell, Michelle L

2016-01-01

Understanding how weather impacts health is critical, especially under a changing climate; however, relatively few studies have investigated subtropical regions. We examined how mortality in São Paulo, Brazil, is affected by cold, heat, and heat waves over 14.5 years (1996-2010). We used over-dispersed generalized linear modeling to estimate heat- and cold-related mortality, and Bayesian hierarchical modeling to estimate overall effects and modification by heat wave characteristics (intensity, duration, and timing in season). Stratified analyses were performed by cause of death and individual characteristics (sex, age, education, marital status, and place of death). Cold effects on mortality appeared higher than heat effects in this subtropical city with moderate climatic conditions. Heat was associated with respiratory mortality and cold with cardiovascular mortality. Risk of total mortality was 6.1% (95% confidence interval 4.7, 7.6%) higher at the 99th percentile of temperature than the 90th percentile (heat effect) and 8.6% (6.2, 11.1%) higher at the 1st compared to the 10th percentile (cold effect). Risks were higher for females and those with no education for heat effect, and males for cold effect. Older persons, widows, and non-hospital deaths had higher mortality risks for heat and cold. Mortality during heat waves was higher than on non-heat wave days for total, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality. Our findings indicate that mortality in São Paulo is associated with both cold and heat and that some subpopulations are more vulnerable.

People as sensors: mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter

Science.gov (United States)

Kirilenko, A.; Molodtsova, T.; Stepchenkova, S.

2014-12-01

We examined whether people living under significant temperature anomalies connect their sensory experiences to climate change and the role that media plays in this process. We used Twitter messages containing words "climate change" and "global warming" as the indicator of attention that public pays to the issue. Specifically, the goals were: (1) to investigate whether people immediately notice significant local weather anomalies and connect them to climate change and (2) to examine the role of mass media in this process. Over 2 million tweets were collected for a two-year period (2012 - 2013) and were assigned to 157 urban areas in the continental USA (Figure 1). Geographical locations of the tweets were identified with a geolocation resolving algorithm based the profile of the users. Daily number of tweets (tweeting rate) was computed for 157 conterminous USA urban areas and adjusted for data acquisition errors. The USHCN daily minimum and maximum temperatures were obtained for the station locations closest to the centers of the urban areas and the 1981-2010 30-year temperature mean and standard deviation were used as the climate normals. For the analysis, we computed the following indices for each day of 2012 - 2013 period: standardized temperature anomaly, absolute standardized temperature anomaly, and extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies for each urban zone. The extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies were then transformed into country-level values that represent the number of people living in extreme temperature conditions. The rate of tweeting on climate change was regressed on the time variables, number of climate change publications in the mass media, and temperature. In the majority of regression models, the mass media and temperature variables were significant at the pmedia acts as a mediator in the relationship between local weather and climate change discourse intensity. Our analysis of Twitter data confirmed that the public is able to

Insulated Concrete Form Walls Integrated With Mechanical Systems in a Cold Climate Test House

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mallay, D. [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Wiehagen, J. [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States)

2014-09-01

Transitioning from standard light frame to a thermal mass wall system in a high performance home will require a higher level of design integration with the mechanical systems. The much higher mass in the ICF wall influences heat transfer through the wall and affects how the heating and cooling system responds to changing outdoor conditions. This is even more important for efficient, low-load homes with efficient heat pump systems in colder climates where the heating and cooling peak loads are significantly different from standard construction. This report analyzes a range of design features and component performance estimates in an effort to select practical, cost-effective solutions for high performance homes in a cold climate.

Impacts of Severe Weather, Climate Zone, and Energy Factors on Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-26

Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering Management Christopher L. Teke, Major, USAF Major...the science behind severe weather occurrences and climate zone. Chapter 3 further details the methodology used in the analysis and sets the stage... actuarial estimates and should be thought of as insurance premiums, and ought to remain a budgeted cost if a base stays open. In contrast, if a base is

A vaccine cold chain freezing study in PNG highlights technology needs for hot climate countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Wirkas, Theo; Toikilik, Steven; Miller, Nan; Morgan, Chris; Clements, C John

2007-01-08

Fourteen data loggers were packed with vaccine vials at the national vaccine store, Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG), and sent to peripheral locations in the health system. The temperatures that the data loggers recorded during their passage along the cold chain indicated that heat damage was unlikely, but that all vials were exposed to freezing temperatures at some time. The commonest place where freezing conditions existed was during transport. The freezing conditions were likely induced by packing the vials too close to the ice packs that were themselves too cold, and with insufficient insulation between them. This situation was rectified and a repeat dispatch of data loggers demonstrated that the system had indeed been rectified. Avoiding freeze damage becomes even more important as the price of freeze-sensitive vaccines increases with the introduction of more multiple-antigen vaccines. This low-cost high-tech method of evaluating the cold chain function is highly recommended for developing and industrialized nations and should be used on a regular basis to check the integrity of the vaccine cold chain. The study highlights the need for technological solutions to avoid vaccine freezing, particularly in hot climate countries.

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Yan; Yin, Fei; Deng, Ying; Volinn, Ernest; Chen, Fei; Ji, Kui; Zeng, Jing; Zhao, Xing; Li, Xiaosong

2016-12-10

Background : Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China); Methods : We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an "optimum temperature" that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results : The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%-13.65%). Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%-12.81%), while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%-2.35%). The attributable risk (AR) of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%-24.24%) than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%-16.01%); Conclusions : In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the impact of ambient

An Experimental Investigation On Minimum Compressive Strength Of Early Age Concrete To Prevent Frost Damage For Nuclear Power Plant Structures In Cold Climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koh, Kyungtaek; Kim, Dogyeum; Park, Chunjin; Ryu, Gumsung; Park, Jungjun; Lee, Janghwa

2013-01-01

Concrete undergoing early frost damage in cold weather will experience significant loss of not only strength, but also of permeability and durability. Accordingly, concrete codes like ACI-306R prescribe a minimum compressive strength and duration of curing to prevent frost damage at an early age and secure the quality of concrete. Such minimum compressive strength and duration of curing are mostly defined based on the strength development of concrete. However, concrete subjected to frost damage at early age may not show a consistent relationship between its strength and durability. Especially, since durability of concrete is of utmost importance in nuclear power plant structures, this relationship should be imperatively clarified. Therefore, this study verifies the feasibility of the minimum compressive strength specified in the codes like ACI-306R by evaluating the strength development and the durability preventing the frost damage of early age concrete for nuclear power plant. The results indicate that the value of 5 MPa specified by the concrete standards like ACI-306R as the minimum compressive strength to prevent the early frost damage is reasonable in terms of the strength development, but seems to be inappropriate in the viewpoint of the resistance to chloride ion penetration and freeze-thaw. Consequently, it is recommended to propose a minimum compressive strength preventing early frost damage in terms of not only the strength development, but also in terms of the durability to secure the quality of concrete for nuclear power plants in cold climates

An Experimental Investigation On Minimum Compressive Strength Of Early Age Concrete To Prevent Frost Damage For Nuclear Power Plant Structures In Cold Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Koh, Kyungtaek; Kim, Dogyeum; Park, Chunjin; Ryu, Gumsung; Park, Jungjun; Lee, Janghwa [Korea Institute Construction Technology, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

2013-06-15

Concrete undergoing early frost damage in cold weather will experience significant loss of not only strength, but also of permeability and durability. Accordingly, concrete codes like ACI-306R prescribe a minimum compressive strength and duration of curing to prevent frost damage at an early age and secure the quality of concrete. Such minimum compressive strength and duration of curing are mostly defined based on the strength development of concrete. However, concrete subjected to frost damage at early age may not show a consistent relationship between its strength and durability. Especially, since durability of concrete is of utmost importance in nuclear power plant structures, this relationship should be imperatively clarified. Therefore, this study verifies the feasibility of the minimum compressive strength specified in the codes like ACI-306R by evaluating the strength development and the durability preventing the frost damage of early age concrete for nuclear power plant. The results indicate that the value of 5 MPa specified by the concrete standards like ACI-306R as the minimum compressive strength to prevent the early frost damage is reasonable in terms of the strength development, but seems to be inappropriate in the viewpoint of the resistance to chloride ion penetration and freeze-thaw. Consequently, it is recommended to propose a minimum compressive strength preventing early frost damage in terms of not only the strength development, but also in terms of the durability to secure the quality of concrete for nuclear power plants in cold climates.

Insight into American tourists’ experiences with weather in South Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giddy Julia K.

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Weather and climate are often important factors determining the success of a tourism destination and resultant satisfaction among tourists. This is particularly true for South Africa due the predominance of outdoor tourist attractions. Increasing numbers of international tourists have visited South Africa since the fall of apartheid, particularly those from the United States (U.S., which is an important market for South African tourism. Therefore, this paper seeks to examine a sample of American tourists’ experience with day-to-day weather and climatic conditions in South Africa. The results show that although respondents did not feel that climatic conditions were an important factor in motivations to visit the country, the day-to-day weather did often impact the enjoyment of their visit. Most notably, weather controlled their ability to participate in outdoor activities. In correlating accounts of unpleasant weather conditions with the meteorological records, a close association emerged, particularly for excessively high temperatures. This indicates that the experiences of American tourists are an accurate indication of climatic unsuitability for tourism, which poses threats to the South African outdoor tourism sector.

A study of weather types at Athens and Thessaloniki and their relationship to circulation types for the cold-wet period, part II: discriminant analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Michailidou, C.; Maheras, P.; Arseni-Papadimititriou, A.; Kolyva-Machera, F.; Anagnostopoulou, C.

2009-06-01

A discriminant analysis is applied in order to determine the relationships between circulation types in the middle troposphere and prevailing weather types over two major Greek cities, Athens and Thessaloniki. In order to describe the synoptic conditions, an automatic classification scheme for the Greek region is used. For each circulation type identified (14 in total), several meteorological parameters at the 500 hPa level are calculated such as geopotential heights and their anomalies, temperature and relative vorticity. Weather group-types that reflect the conditions at the surface, were previously defined using a two-step cluster analysis. These types result from a combination of five meteorological parameters—maximum temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity, wind velocity and sunshine duration. The study period is 43 years long (1958-2000) and is restricted to the cold and wet period of the year, from December until March. For Athens, six weather types are developed, whereas for Thessaloniki five are produced. By means of a stepwise discriminant analysis (DA) model, the most important variables from the 500 hPa level are found and are used to generate the necessary functions that can discriminate weather types over the two stations. The aim of the present study is first to discriminate weather types effectively and to identify the most important discriminating variables, and second, to connect these weather types to elements of the prevailing synoptic pattern, through mathematical functions provided by DA. The results of the evaluation of the aforementioned procedure are considered to be very satisfactory.

A case study to estimate thermal conductivity of ABS in Cold Climate Chamber

OpenAIRE

Mughal, Umair Najeeb; Makarova, Marina; Virk, Muhammad Shakeel; Polanco Pinerez, Geanette

2015-01-01

Open Access (Romeo Green journal), publishers version / PDF may be used http://www.scirp.org/journal/wjet/ Non steady state thermal conductivity of ABS was estimated using an analytical approach in a Cold Climate Chamber at ?10?C and ?14?C. Two hollow cylinders of ABS of varying thickness were used to estimate the conductivity. The material was porous but the porosity was unknown. This paper is a case study to understand, if it is reasonable to estimate the thermal conductivity using th...

Building America Best Practices Series: Volume 3; Builders and Buyers Handbook for Improving New Home Efficiency, Comfort, and Durability in Cold and Very Cold Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2005-08-01

This best practices guide is part of a series produced by Building America. The guide book is a resource to help builders large and small build high-quality, energy-efficient homes that achieve 30% energy savings in space conditioning and water heating in the cold and very cold climates. The savings are in comparison with the 1993 Model Energy Code. The guide contains chapters for every member of the builder's team-from the manager to the site planner to the designers, site supervisors, the trades, and marketers. There is also a chapter for homeowners on how to use the book to provide help in selecting a new home or builder.

Impacts of extreme weather events on transport infrastructure in Norway

Science.gov (United States)

Frauenfelder, Regula; Solheim, Anders; Isaksen, Ketil; Romstad, Bård; Dyrrdal, Anita V.; Ekseth, Kristine H. H.; Gangstø Skaland, Reidun; Harbitz, Alf; Harbitz, Carl B.; Haugen, Jan E.; Hygen, Hans O.; Haakenstad, Hilde; Jaedicke, Christian; Jónsson, Árni; Klæboe, Ronny; Ludvigsen, Johanna; Meyer, Nele K.; Rauken, Trude; Sverdrup-Thygeson, Kjetil

2016-04-01

century. The increase, both in total precipitation, and in the frequency and intensity of extreme events, is greatest in the west and southwest, and in parts of northern Norway, areas with the highest present precipitation. - Snowfall will increase due to increased precipitation in cold areas inland and at high elevations. In lower lying parts of the country, and along the coast, more precipitation as rain will replace snowfall. - The frequency of near-zero events, with freeze-thaw cycles, which can trigger rock falls, will decrease due to the generally increased temperatures. - The greatest uncertainties in the weather trends are linked to uncertainties in climate and emission scenarios, and to the downscaling. - More than 30% of the total length of road and railroads in Norway is exposed to snow avalanche and rock fall/slide hazard. As an example, one of the most exposed railroads, Raumabanen, has an annual probability of 1/3 to be hit by snow avalanches. - Total costs of geohazard impact on the road infrastructure (major roads only) were estimated to be roughly 100 mill. NOK per year, of which the costs of road closures comprise 70%. The numbers are unevenly distributed throughout the country, reflecting the topographic and climatic variability in Norway.

Strategy Guideline: Energy Retrofits for Low-Rise Multifamily Buildings in Cold Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brozyna, K. [IBACOS, Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Badger, L. [Vermont Energy Investment Corporation, Burlington, VT (United States)

2013-04-01

This Strategy Guideline explains the benefits of evaluating and identifying energy efficiency retrofit measures that could be made during renovation and maintenance of multifamily buildings. It focuses on low-rise multifamily structures (three or fewer stories) in a cold climate. These benefits lie primarily in reduced energy use, lower operating and maintenance costs, improved durability of the structure, and increased occupant comfort. This guideline focuses on retrofit measures for roof repair or replacement, exterior wall repair or gut rehab, and eating system maintenance. All buildings are assumed to have a flat ceiling and a trussed roof, wood- or steel-framed exterior walls, and one or more single or staged boilers. Estimated energy savings realized from the retrofits will vary, depending on the size and condition of the building, the extent of efficiency improvements, the efficiency of the heating equipment, the cost and type of fuel, and the climate location.

The Climate and its Impacts on deterioration and weathering rate of EI-Nadura Temple in El- Kharga Oasis, Western Desert of Egypt.

Science.gov (United States)

Ismael, Hossam

2015-04-01

Undoubtedly, El-Kharga Oasis monumental sites are considered an important part of our world's cultural heritage in the South Western Desert of Egypt. These sites are scattered on the floor of the oasis representing ancient civilizations. The Roman stone monuments in Kharga represent cultural heritage of an outstanding universal value. Such those monuments have suffered weathering deterioration. There are various elements which affect the weathering process of stone monuments: climate conditions, shapes of cultural heritages, exposed time periods, terrains, and vegetation around them, etc. Among these, climate conditions are the most significant factor affecting the deterioration of Archeological sites in Egypt. El- Kharga Oasis belongs administratively to the New Valley Governorate. It is located in the southern part of the western desert of Egypt, lies between latitudes 22°30'14" and 26°00'00" N, and between 30°27'00" and 30°47'00" E. The area of El Kharga Oasis covers about 7500 square kilometers. Pilot studies were carried out on the EI-Nadura Temple, composed of sandstones originating from the great sand sea. The major objective of this study is to monitor and measure the weathering features and the weathering rate affecting the building stones forming El-Nadora Roman building rocks in cubic cm. To achieve these aims, the present study used analysis of climatic data such as annual and seasonal solar radiation, Monthly average number of hours of sunshine, maximum and minimum air temperatures, wind speed, which have obtained from actual field measurements and data Meteorological Authority of El-Kharga station for the period 1977 to 2010 (33 years), and from the period 1941-2050 (110 years) as a long term of temperature data. Several samples were collected and examined by polarizing microscopy (PLM), X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy equipped with an energy dispersive X-ray analysis system (SEM-EDX). The results were in

Applicability research on passive design of residential buildings in hot summer and cold winter zone in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hui; Wang, Huihui; Zhou, Xuan

2017-04-01

Passive design has long been a concern as an effective way of building energy efficiency. However, different urban climate characteristics determine the time-effectiveness of passive design. According to the climate characteristics of hot summer and cold winter zone in China, this research chose five cities, Shanghai, Wuhan, Chongqing, Nanjing and Changsha, to analyze their residential building energy consumption and thermal environment conditions. Based on Weather Tool calculation and analysis, the purpose of this research is to put forward the concept of Suitable Degree (SD), namely the applicability of the passive design. In addition, five cities’ SD of passive design technology had been analyzed from aspect of ventilation, temperature, solar radiation and envelope, then passive design strategies and methods of five cities’ residential building were discussed.

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Lowe

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

Weather, transport mode choices and emotional travel experiences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Böcker, L.; Dijst, M.J.; Faber, J.

2016-01-01

With climate change high on the political agenda, weather has emerged as an important issue in travel behavioral research and urban planning. While various studies demonstrate profound effects of weather on travel behaviors, limited attention has been paid to subjective weather experiences and the

Transport of Aerosols: Regional and Global Implications for Climate, Weather, and Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Yu, Hongbin; Bian, Huisheng; Remer, Lorraine; Kahn, Ralph

2008-01-01

Long-range transport of atmospheric aerosols can have a significant impact on global climate, regional weather, and local air quality. In this study, we use a global model GOCART together with satellite data and ground-based measurements to assess the emission and transport of pollution, dust, biomass burning, and volcanic aerosols and their implications. In particular, we will show the impact of emissions and long-range transport of aerosols from major pollution and dust source regions to (1) the surface air quality, (2) the atmospheric heating rates, and (3) surface radiation change near the source and downwind regions.

Research Data Alliance's Interest Group on "Weather, Climate and Air Quality"

Science.gov (United States)

Bretonnière, Pierre-Antoine; Benincasa, Francesco

2016-04-01

Research Data Alliance's Interest Group on "Weather, Climate and Air Quality" More than ever in the history of Earth sciences, scientists are confronted with the problem of dealing with huge amounts of data that grow continuously at a rate that becomes a challenge to process and analyse them using conventional methods. Data come from many different and widely distributed sources, ranging from satellite platforms and in-situ sensors to model simulations, and with different degrees of openness. How can Earth scientists deal with this diversity and big volume and extract useful information to understand and predict the relevant processes? The Research Data Alliance (RDA, https://rd-alliance.org/), an organization that promotes and develops new data policies, data standards and focuses on the development of new technical solutions applicable in many distinct areas of sciences, recently entered in its third phase. In this framework, an Interest Group (IG) comprised of community experts that are committed to directly or indirectly enable and facilitate data sharing, exchange, or interoperability in the fields of weather, climate and air quality has been created recently. Its aim is to explore and discuss the challenges for the use and efficient analysis of large and diverse datasets of relevance for these fields taking advantage of the knowledge generated and exchanged in RDA. At the same time, this IG intends to be a meeting point between members of the aforementioned communities to share experiences and propose new solutions to overcome the forthcoming challenges. Based on the collaboration between several research meteorological and European climate institutes, but also taking into account the input from the private (from the renewable energies, satellites and agriculture sectors for example) and public sectors, this IG will suggest practical and applicable solutions for Big Data issues, both at technological and policy level, encountered by these communities. We

Relationships between Long-Term Demography and Weather in a Sub-Arctic Population of Common Eider.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jón Einar Jónsson

Full Text Available Effects of local weather on individuals and populations are key drivers of wildlife responses to climatic changes. However, studies often do not last long enough to identify weather conditions that influence demographic processes, or to capture rare but extreme weather events at appropriate scales. In Iceland, farmers collect nest down of wild common eider Somateria mollissima and many farmers count nests within colonies annually, which reflects annual variation in the number of breeding females. We collated these data for 17 colonies. Synchrony in breeding numbers was generally low between colonies. We evaluated 1 demographic relationships with weather in nesting colonies of common eider across Iceland during 1900-2007; and 2 impacts of episodic weather events (aberrantly cold seasons or years on subsequent breeding numbers. Except for episodic events, breeding numbers within a colony generally had no relationship to local weather conditions in the preceding year. However, common eider are sexually mature at 2-3 years of age and we found a 3-year time lag between summer weather and breeding numbers for three colonies, indicating a positive effect of higher pressure, drier summers for one colony, and a negative effect of warmer, calmer summers for two colonies. These findings may represent weather effects on duckling production and subsequent recruitment. Weather effects were mostly limited to a few aberrant years causing reductions in breeding numbers, i.e. declines in several colonies followed severe winters (1918 and some years with high NAO (1992, 1995. In terms of life history, adult survival generally is high and stable and probably only markedly affected by inclement weather or aberrantly bad years. Conversely, breeding propensity of adults and duckling production probably do respond more to annual weather variations; i.e. unfavorable winter conditions for adults increase probability of death or skipped breeding, whereas favorable summers

Prevalence of weather sensitivity in Germany and Canada

Science.gov (United States)

Mackensen, Sylvia; Hoeppe, Peter; Maarouf, Abdel; Tourigny, Pierre; Nowak, Dennis

2005-01-01

Several studies have shown that atmospheric conditions can affect well-being or disease, and that some individuals seem to be more sensitive to weather than others. Since epidemiological data on the prevalence of weather-related health effects are lacking, two representative weather sensitivity (WS) surveys were conducted independently in Germany and Canada. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to identify the prevalence of WS in Germany and Canada, (2) to describe weather-related symptoms and the corresponding weather conditions, and (3) to compare the findings in the two countries. In Germany 1,064 citizens (age >16 years) were interviewed in January 2001, and in Canada 1,506 persons (age >18 years) were interviewed in January 1994. The results showed that 19.2% of the German population thought that weather affected their health “to a strong degree,” 35.3% that weather had “some influence on their health” (sum of both = 54.5% weather sensitive), whereas the remaining 45.5% did not consider that weather had an effect on their health status. In Canada 61% of the respondents considered themselves to be sensitive to the weather. The highest prevalence of WS (high + some influence) in Germans was found in the age group older than 60 years (68%), which was almost identical in the Canadian population (69%). The highest frequencies of weather-related symptoms were reported in Germany for stormy weather (30%) and when it became colder (29%). In Canada mainly cold weather (46%), dampness (21%) and rain (20%) were considered to affect health more than other weather types. The most frequent symptoms reported in Germany were headache/migraine (61%), lethargy (47%), sleep disturbances (46%), fatigue (42%), joint pain (40%), irritation (31%), depression (27%), vertigo (26%), concentration problems (26%) and scar pain (23%). Canadian weather-sensitive persons reported colds (29%), psychological effects (28%) and painful joints, muscles or arthritis (10%). In Germany 32

Developmental phenotypic plasticity helps bridge stochastic weather events associated with climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Burggren, Warren

2018-05-10

The slow, inexorable rise in annual average global temperatures and acidification of the oceans are often advanced as consequences of global change. However, many environmental changes, especially those involving weather (as opposed to climate), are often stochastic, variable and extreme, particularly in temperate terrestrial or freshwater habitats. Moreover, few studies of animal and plant phenotypic plasticity employ realistic (i.e. short-term, stochastic) environmental change in their protocols. Here, I posit that the frequently abrupt environmental changes (days, weeks, months) accompanying much longer-term general climate change (e.g. global warming over decades or centuries) require consideration of the true nature of environmental change (as opposed to statistical means) coupled with an expansion of focus to consider developmental phenotypic plasticity. Such plasticity can be in multiple forms - obligatory/facultative, beneficial/deleterious - depending upon the degree and rate of environmental variability at specific points in organismal development. Essentially, adult phenotypic plasticity, as important as it is, will be irrelevant if developing offspring lack sufficient plasticity to create modified phenotypes necessary for survival. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Burkart, Katrin; Lesk, Corey; Bader, Daniel; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick

2016-01-01

Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

COSMIC Payload in NCAR-NASPO GPS Satellite System for Severe Weather Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lai-Chen, C.

Severe weather, such as cyclones, heavy rainfall, outburst of cold air, etc., results in great disaster all the world. It is the mission for the scientists to design a warning system, to predict the severe weather systems and to reduce the damage of the society. In Taiwan, National Satellite Project Office (NSPO) initiated ROCSAT-3 program at 1997. She scheduled the Phase I conceptual design to determine the mission for observation weather system. Cooperating with National Center of Atmospheric Research (NCAR), NSPO involved an international cooperation research and operation program to build a 32 GPS satellites system. NCAR will offer 24 GPS satellites. The total expanse will be US 100 millions. NSPO also provide US 80 millions for launching and system engineering operation. And NCAR will be responsible for Payload Control Center and Fiducial Network. The cooperative program contract has been signed by Taiwan National Science Council, Taipei Economic Cultural Office of United States and American Institute in Taiwan. One of the payload is COSMIC, Constellation Observation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate. It is a GPS meteorology instrument system. The system will observe the weather information, e. g. electron density profiles, horizontal and vertical TEC and CFT scintillation and communication outage maps. The mission is to obtain the weather data such as vertical temperature profiles, water vapor distribution and pressure distribution over the world for global weather forecasting, especially during the severe weather period. The COSMIC Conference held on November, 1998. The export license was also issued by Department of Commerce of Unites States at November, 1998. Recently, NSPO begun to train their scientists to investigate the system. Scientists simulate the observation data to combine the existing routine satellite infrared cloud maps, radar echo and synoptic weather analysis for severe weather forecasting. It is hopeful to provide more accurate

Long-range weather prediction and prevention of climate catastrophes: a status report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caldeira, K; Caravan, G; Govindasamy, B; Grossman, A; Hyde, R; Ishikawa, M; Ledebuhr, A; Leith, C; Molenkamp, C; Teller, E; Wood, L

1999-01-01

As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge-and then control-of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living-and, indeed, reliability of life itself-become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one, Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more

Long-range Weather Prediction and Prevention of Climate Catastrophes: A Status Report

Science.gov (United States)

Caldeira, K.; Caravan, G.; Govindasamy, B.; Grossman, A.; Hyde, R.; Ishikawa, M.; Ledebuhr, A.; Leith, C.; Molenkamp, C.; Teller, E.; Wood, L.

1999-08-18

As the human population of Earth continues to expand and to demand an ever-higher quality-of-life, requirements for ever-greater knowledge--and then control--of the future of the state of the terrestrial biosphere grow apace. Convenience of living--and, indeed, reliability of life itself--become ever more highly ''tuned'' to the future physical condition of the biosphere being knowable and not markedly different than the present one. Two years ago, we reported at a quantitative albeit conceptual level on technical ways-and-means of forestalling large-scale changes in the present climate, employing practical means of modulating insolation and/or the Earth's mean albedo. Last year, we reported on early work aimed at developing means for creating detailed, high-fidelity, all-Earth weather forecasts of two weeks duration, exploiting recent and anticipated advances in extremely high-performance digital computing and in atmosphere-observing Earth satellites bearing high-technology instrumentation. This year, we report on recent progress in both of these areas of endeavor. Preventing the commencement of large-scale changes in the current climate presently appears to be a considerably more interesting prospect than initially realized, as modest insolation reductions are model-predicted to offset the anticipated impacts of ''global warming'' surprisingly precisely, in both space and time. Also, continued study has not revealed any fundamental difficulties in any of the means proposed for insolation modulation and, indeed, applicability of some of these techniques to other planets in the inner Solar system seems promising. Implementation of the high-fidelity, long-range weather-forecasting capability presently appears substantially easier with respect to required populations of Earth satellites and atmospheric transponders and data-processing systems, and more complicated with respect to transponder lifetimes in the actual atmosphere; overall, the enterprise seems more

Novel Methods to Explore Building Energy Sensitivity to Climate and Heat Waves Using PNNL's BEND Model

Science.gov (United States)

Burleyson, C. D.; Voisin, N.; Taylor, T.; Xie, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

2017-12-01

The DOE's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) has been developing the Building ENergy Demand (BEND) model to simulate energy usage in residential and commercial buildings responding to changes in weather, climate, population, and building technologies. At its core, BEND is a mechanism to aggregate EnergyPlus simulations of a large number of individual buildings with a diversity of characteristics over large spatial scales. We have completed a series of experiments to explore methods to calibrate the BEND model, measure its ability to capture interannual variability in energy demand due to weather using simulations of two distinct weather years, and understand the sensitivity to the number and location of weather stations used to force the model. The use of weather from "representative cities" reduces computational costs, but often fails to capture spatial heterogeneity that may be important for simulations aimed at understanding how building stocks respond to a changing climate (Fig. 1). We quantify the potential reduction in temperature and load biases from using an increasing number of weather stations across the western U.S., ranging from 8 to roughly 150. Using 8 stations results in an average absolute summertime temperature bias of 4.0°C. The mean absolute bias drops to 1.5°C using all available stations. Temperature biases of this magnitude translate to absolute summertime mean simulated load biases as high as 13.8%. Additionally, using only 8 representative weather stations can lead to a 20-40% bias of peak building loads under heat wave or cold snap conditions, a significant error for capacity expansion planners who may rely on these types of simulations. This analysis suggests that using 4 stations per climate zone may be sufficient for most purposes. Our novel approach, which requires no new EnergyPlus simulations, could be useful to other researchers designing or calibrating aggregate building model simulations - particularly those looking at

The Rapid Arctic Warming and Its Impact on East Asian Winter Weather in Recent Decade

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, S. J.; Kim, B. M.; Kim, J. H.

2015-12-01

The Arctic is warming much more rapidly than the lower latitudes. In contrast to the rapid Arctic warming, in winters of the recent decade, the cold-air outbreaks over East Asia occur more frequently and stronger than in 1990s. By accompanying the snow over East Asia, the strong cold surges have led to a severe socio-economic impact. Such severe cold surges in recent decade over east Asia is consistent with the more dominant negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), that may be attributed by the Arctic amplification. In both observation-based reanalysis and numerical model experiments, the Arctic sea ice melting leads to the weakening of the AO polarity by reducing the meridional temperature gradient through a heat flux feedback. The Arctic warming and associated sea ice melting over the Kara-Barents area in late fall and early winter first release a lot of heat to the atmosphere from the ocean by a strong contrast in temperature and moisture and higher height anomaly is developed over the Kara/Barents and the Ural mountains The anomalous anticyclonic anomaly over the Arctic strengthen the Siberian High and at the same time the east Asian trough is developed over the western coast of the North Pacific. Through the passage between the margin of the Siberian High and east Asian tough, an extremely cold air is transported from east Siberia to east Asia for sometimes more than a week. Such a severe sold air brings about the moisture from nearby ocean, largely influencing the daily lives and economy in north East China, Korea, and Japan. The recent Arctic and associated sea ice melting is not only contributed to the local climate and weather, but also a severe weather in mid-latitudes through a modulation in polar vortex.

Climate Prediction Center

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Organization Enter Search Term(s): Search Search the CPC Go NCEP Quarterly Newsletter Climate Highlights U.S Climate-Weather El Niño/La Niña MJO Blocking AAO, AO, NAO, PNA Climatology Global Monsoons Expert

Combining traditional weather forecasting, science in Kenya | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2012-02-24

Feb 24, 2012 ... Kenyan farmers have relied on the indigenous weather prediction methods of the Nganyi rainmakers for generations. But extreme weather caused by climate change is affecting the natural signs that rainmakers use to predict weather. Many fear traditional methods are therefore becoming redundant and ...

Linking the M&Rfi Weather Generator with Agrometeorological Models

Science.gov (United States)

Dubrovsky, Martin; Trnka, Miroslav

2015-04-01

Realistic meteorological inputs (representing the present and/or future climates) for the agrometeorological model simulations are often produced by stochastic weather generators (WGs). This contribution presents some methodological issues and results obtained in our recent experiments. We also address selected questions raised in the synopsis of this session. The input meteorological time series for our experiments are produced by the parametric single site weather generator (WG) Marfi, which is calibrated from the available observational data (or interpolated from surrounding stations). To produce meteorological series representing the future climate, the WG parameters are modified by climate change scenarios, which are prepared by the pattern scaling method: the standardised scenarios derived from Global or Regional Climate Models are multiplied by the change in global mean temperature (ΔTG) determined by the simple climate model MAGICC. The presentation will address following questions: (i) The dependence of the quality of the synthetic weather series and impact results on the WG settings. An emphasis will be put on an effect of conditioning the daily WG on monthly WG (presently being one of our hot topics), which aims at improvement of the reproduction of the low-frequency weather variability. Comparison of results obtained with various WG settings is made in terms of climatic and agroclimatic indices (including extreme temperature and precipitation characteristics and drought indices). (ii) Our methodology accounts for the uncertainties coming from various sources. We will show how the climate change impact results are affected by 1. uncertainty in climate modelling, 2. uncertainty in ΔTG, and 3. uncertainty related to the complexity of the climate change scenario (focusing on an effect of inclusion of changes in variability into the climate change scenarios). Acknowledgements: This study was funded by project "Building up a multidisciplinary scientific

Decision-support tools for Extreme Weather and Climate Events in the Northeast United States

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Lowery, M.; Whelchel, A.

2013-12-01

Decision-support tools were assessed for the 2013 National Climate Assessment technical input document, "Climate Change in the Northeast, A Sourcebook". The assessment included tools designed to generate and deliver actionable information to assist states and highly populated urban and other communities in assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk, quantification of effects, and identification of adaptive strategies in the context of adaptation planning across inter-annual, seasonal and multi-decadal time scales. State-level adaptation planning in the Northeast has generally relied on qualitative vulnerability assessments by expert panels and stakeholders, although some states have undertaken initiatives to develop statewide databases to support vulnerability assessments by urban and local governments, and state agencies. The devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy in October 2012 has raised awareness of the potential for extreme weather events to unprecedented levels and created urgency for action, especially in coastal urban and suburban communities that experienced pronounced impacts - especially in New Jersey, New York and Connecticut. Planning approaches vary, but any adaptation and resiliency planning process must include the following: - Knowledge of the probable change in a climate variable (e.g., precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise) over time or that the climate variable will attain a certain threshold deemed to be significant; - Knowledge of intensity and frequency of climate hazards (past, current or future events or conditions with potential to cause harm) and their relationship with climate variables; - Assessment of climate vulnerabilities (sensitive resources, infrastructure or populations exposed to climate-related hazards); - Assessment of relative risks to vulnerable resources; - Identification and prioritization of adaptive strategies to address risks. Many organizations are developing decision-support tools to assist in the urban

The radiogenic and stable Sr isotope geochemistry of basalt weathering in Iceland: Role of hydrothermal calcite and implications for long-term climate regulation

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, M. Grace; Jacobson, Andrew D.

2017-10-01

Several studies have examined the geochemistry of Icelandic rivers to quantify the relationship between basalt weathering and long-term climate regulation. Recent research has suggested that the chemical weathering of hydrothermal and metamorphic calcite contributes significant quantities of HCO3- to the Icelandic riverine flux (Jacobson et al., 2015). Because the HCO3- derives from volcanic CO2 that was sequestered in mineral form prior to atmospheric injection, the strength of the basalt weathering feedback occurring in Iceland may be lower than previously realized. To test these hypotheses, we analyzed the radiogenic and stable Sr isotope composition (87Sr/86Sr and δ88/86Sr) of the same suite of water, rock, and mineral samples as examined in Jacobson et al. (2015), and we developed a simple model of the long-term C cycle that considers the transformation of volcanic CO2 to HCO3- during subsurface silicate weathering, which is a precursor to hydrothermal calcite formation. Interpretations based on 87Sr/86Sr and Ca/Sr ratios suggest that conservative, three-component mixing between basalt, calcite, and atmospheric deposition adequately explains river geochemistry. On average, the δ88/86Sr values of glacial and non-glacial rivers (0.414‰ and 0.388‰, respectively) are generally higher than those for basalt (0.276‰); however, calcite δ88/86Sr values (0.347‰) are also higher than those for basalt and span the range of riverine values. Thus, riverine δ88/86Sr values are also consistent three-component mixing between basalt, calcite, and atmospheric deposition. Isotopic fractionation is not required to explain riverine trends. Finally, model equations for the long-term C cycle demonstrate that subsurface silicate weathering reduces the magnitude of the volcanic CO2 degassing flux, which in turn causes the atmosphere to stabilize at lower pCO2 values compared to the case where no subsurface silicate weathering occurs. However, the proportion of the net

Decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence over China during the past 50 years

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qinghong; Ni, Xiang; Zhang, Fuqing

2017-04-01

Understanding the trend of localized severe weather under the changing climate is of great significance but remains challenging which is at least partially due to the lack of persistent and homogeneous severe weather observations at climate scales while the detailed physical processes of severe weather cannot be resolved in global climate models. Based on continuous and coherent severe weather reports from over 500 manned stations, for the first time, this study shows a significant decreasing trend in severe weather occurrence across China during the past five decades. The total number of severe weather days that have either thunderstorm, hail and/or damaging wind decrease about 50% from 1961 to 2010. It is further shown that the reduction in severe weather occurrences correlates strongly with the weakening of East Asian summer monsoon which is the primary source of moisture and dynamic forcing conducive for warm-season severe weather over China.

High Latitude Corals Tolerate Severe Cold Spell

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chenae A. Tuckett

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Climatically extreme weather events often drive long-term ecological responses of ecosystems. By disrupting the important symbiosis with zooxanthellae, Marine Cold Spells (MCS can cause bleaching and mortality in tropical and subtropical scleractinian corals. Here we report on the effects of a severe MCS on high latitude corals, where we expected to find bleaching and mortality. The MCS took place off the coast of Perth (32°S, Western Australia in 2016. Bleaching was assessed before (2014 and after (2017 the MCS from surveys of permanent plots, and with timed bleaching searches. Temperature data was recorded with in situ loggers. During the MCS temperatures dipped to the coldest recorded in ten years (15.3°C and periods of <17°C lasted for up to 19 days. Only 4.3% of the surveyed coral colonies showed signs of bleaching. Bleaching was observed in 8 species where those most affected were Plesiastrea versipora and Montipora mollis. These findings suggest that high latitude corals in this area are tolerant of cold stress and are not persisting near a lethal temperature minimum. It has not been established whether other environmental conditions are limiting these species, and if so, what the implications are for coral performance on these reefs in a warmer future.

Combining traditional weather forecasting, science in Kenya | CRDI ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

24 févr. 2012 ... Kenyan farmers have relied on the indigenous weather prediction methods of the Nganyi rainmakers for generations. But extreme weather caused by climate change is affecting the natural signs that rainmakers use to predict weather. Many fear traditional methods are therefore becoming redundant and ...

Cold temperatures increase cold hardiness in the next generation Ophraella communa beetles.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhong-Shi Zhou

Full Text Available The leaf beetle, Ophraella communa, has been introduced to control the spread of the common ragweed, Ambrosia artemisiifolia, in China. We hypothesized that the beetle, to be able to track host-range expansion into colder climates, can phenotypically adapt to cold temperatures across generations. Therefore, we questioned whether parental experience of colder temperatures increases cold tolerance of the progeny. Specifically, we studied the demography, including development, fecundity, and survival, as well as physiological traits, including supercooling point (SCP, water content, and glycerol content of O. communa progeny whose parents were maintained at different temperature regimes. Overall, the entire immature stage decreased survival of about 0.2%-4.2% when parents experienced cold temperatures compared to control individuals obtained from parents raised at room temperature. However, intrinsic capacity for increase (r, net reproductive rate (R 0 and finite rate of increase (λ of progeny O. communa were maximum when parents experienced cold temperatures. Glycerol contents of both female and male in progeny was significantly higher when maternal and paternal adults were cold acclimated as compared to other treatments. This resulted in the supercooling point of the progeny adults being significantly lower compared to beetles emerging from parents that experienced room temperatures. These results suggest that cold hardiness of O. communa can be promoted by cold acclimation in previous generation, and it might counter-balance reduced survival in the next generation, especially when insects are tracking their host-plants into colder climates.

Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Stephenson, D. B.

1997-10-01

The skill in predicting spatially varying weather/climate maps depends on the definition of the measure of similarity between the maps. Under the justifiable approximation that the anomaly maps are distributed multinormally, it is shown analytically that the choice of weighting metric, used in defining the anomaly correlation between spatial maps, can change the resulting probability distribution of the correlation coefficient. The estimate of the numbers of degrees of freedom based on the variance of the correlation distribution can vary from unity up to the number of grid points depending on the choice of weighting metric. The (pseudo-) inverse of the sample covariance matrix acts as a special choice for the metric in that it gives a correlation distribution which has minimal kurtosis and maximum dimension. Minimal kurtosis suggests that the average predictive skill might be improved due to the rarer occurrence of troublesome outlier patterns far from the mean state. Maximum dimension has a disadvantage for analogue prediction schemes in that it gives the minimum number of analogue states. This metric also has an advantage in that it allows one to powerfully test the null hypothesis of multinormality by examining the second and third moments of the correlation coefficient which were introduced by Mardia as invariant measures of multivariate kurtosis and skewness. For these reasons, it is suggested that this metric could be usefully employed in the prediction of weather/climate and in fingerprinting anthropogenic climate change. The ideas are illustrated using the bivariate example of the observed monthly mean sea-level pressures at Darwin and Tahitifrom 1866 1995.

Controls on Weathering of Pyrrhotite in a Low-Sulfide, Granitic Mine-Waste Rock in the Canadian Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Langman, J. B.; Holland, S.; Sinclair, S.; Blowes, D.

2013-12-01

Increased environmental risk is incurred with expansion of mineral extraction in the Arctic. A greater understanding of geochemical processes associated with hard-rock mining in this cold climate is needed to evaluate and mitigate these risks. A laboratory and in-situ experiment was conducted to examine mineral weathering and the generation of acid rock drainage in a low-sulfide, run-of-mine waste rock in an Arctic climate. Rock with different concentrations of sulfides (primarily pyrrhotite [Fe7S8] containing small amounts of Co and Ni) and carbonates were weathered in the laboratory and in-situ, large-scale test piles to examine leachate composition and mineral weathering. The relatively larger sulfide-containing rock produced sufficient acid to overcome carbonate buffering and produced a declining pH environment with concomitant release of SO4, Fe, Co, and Ni. Following carbonate consumption, aluminosilicate buffering stabilized the pH above 4 until a reduction in acid generation. Results from the laboratory experiment assisted in determining that after consumption of 1.6 percent of the total sulfide, the larger sulfide-concentration test pile likely is at an internal steady-state or maximal weathering rate after seven years of precipitation input and weathering that is controlled by an annual freeze-thaw cycle. Further weathering of the test pile should be driven by external factors of temperature and precipitation in this Arctic, semi-arid region instead of internal factors of wetting and non-equilibrium buffering. It is predicted that maximal weathering will continue until at least 20 percent of the total sulfide is consumed. Using the identified evolution of sulfide consumption in this Arctic climate, a variable rate factor can now be assessed for the possible early evolution and maximal weathering of larger scale waste-rock piles and seasonal differences because of changes in the volume of a waste-rock pile undergoing active weathering due to the freeze

Cold-Climate Solar Domestic Hot Water Systems Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Burch, J.; Salasovich, J.; Hillman, T.

2005-11-01

The Solar Heating and Lighting Sub-program has set the key goal to reduce the cost of saved energy [Csav, defined as (total cost, $)/(total discounted savings, kWh_thermal)] for solar domestic water heaters (SDWH) by at least 50%. To determine if this goal is attainable and prioritize R&D for cold-climate SDWH, life-cycle analyses were done with hypothetical lower-cost components in glycol, drainback, and thermosiphon systems. Balance-of-system (BOS, everything but the collector) measures included replacing metal components with polymeric versions and system simplification. With all BOS measures in place, Csav could be reduced more than 50% with a low-cost, selectively-coated, glazed polymeric collector, and slightly less than 50% with either a conventional selective metal-glass or a non-selective glazed polymer collector. The largest percent reduction in Csav comes from replacing conventional pressurized solar storage tanks and metal heat exchangers with un-pressurized polymer tanks with immersed polymer heat exchangers, which could be developed with relatively low-risk R&D.

Spirometry Changes in Cold Climatic Conditions of Antarctica.

Science.gov (United States)

Udaya, Iyamanda B; Laxmi, Chettangada C; Abhishekh, Hulegar A; Raju, Trichur R; Sathyaprabha, Talakad N

2015-01-01

Pulmonary function is one of the important physiological measures that is known to be affected during the changes in the altitude. There is dearth of literature on changes in the pulmonary function variables in the cold climate conditions of Antarctica. We carried out spirometry before, during and after one year stay at Antarctica in members of the Indian expedition. Spirometry was carried out on 23 members of the XXVI Indian Scientific Expedition to Antarctica at baseline, after six months of expedition and at the end of one year, using standard guidelines. The tests were carried out indoor in temperature controlled laboratory. The pulmonary function test parameters did not vary across the period. Although, both forced vital capacity (FVC) and forced expiratory volume in first second (FEV1) showed a decreasing trend but did not attain any statistical significance. However, peak expiratory flow (PEFR) rate was reduced significantly. Our study did not show consistently significant change in the pulmonary function parameters in the members of the Indian Antarctic expedition.

Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data Index

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Oceanic & Atmospheric Monitoring and Data Monitoring Weather & Climate in Realtime Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Preliminary Climate Diagnostics Bulletin Figures Monthly Atmospheric & Sea Surface

Tropical and Subtropical Cloud Transitions in Weather and Climate Prediction Models: The GCSS/WGNE Pacific Cross-Section Intercomparison (GPCI)

Science.gov (United States)

Teixeira, J.; Cardoso, S.; Bonazzola, M.; Cole, J.; DeGenio, A.; DeMott, C.; Franklin, C.; Hannay, C.; Jakob, C.; Jiao, Y.;

Correlation of spatial climate/weather maps and the advantages of using the Mahalanobis metric in predictions

OpenAIRE

Stephenson, D. B.

2011-01-01

he skill in predicting spatially varying weather/climate maps depends on the definition of the measure of similarity between the maps. Under the justifiable approximation that the anomaly maps are distributed multinormally, it is shown analytically that the choice of weighting metric, used in defining the anomaly correlation between spatial maps, can change the resulting probability distribution of the correlation coefficient. The estimate of the numbers of degrees of freedom based on the var...

Heat or Cold: Which One Exerts Greater Deleterious Effects on Health in a Basin Climate City? Impact of Ambient Temperature on Mortality in Chengdu, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Cui

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Although studies from many countries have estimated the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, few have compared the relative impacts of heat and cold on health, especially in basin climate cities. We aimed to quantify the impact of ambient temperature on mortality, and to compare the contributions of heat and cold in a large basin climate city, i.e., Chengdu (Sichuan Province, China; Methods: We estimated the temperature-mortality association with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM with a maximum lag-time of 21 days while controlling for long time trends and day of week. We calculated the mortality risk attributable to heat and cold, which were defined as temperatures above and below an “optimum temperature” that corresponded to the point of minimum mortality. In addition, we explored effects of individual characteristics; Results: The analysis provides estimates of the overall mortality burden attributable to temperature, and then computes the components attributable to heat and cold. Overall, the total fraction of deaths caused by both heat and cold was 10.93% (95%CI: 7.99%–13.65%. Taken separately, cold was responsible for most of the burden (estimate 9.96%, 95%CI: 6.90%–12.81%, while the fraction attributable to heat was relatively small (estimate 0.97%, 95%CI: 0.46%–2.35%. The attributable risk (AR of respiratory diseases was higher (19.69%, 95%CI: 14.45%–24.24% than that of cardiovascular diseases (11.40%, 95%CI: 6.29%–16.01%; Conclusions: In Chengdu, temperature was responsible for a substantial fraction of deaths, with cold responsible for a higher proportion of deaths than heat. Respiratory diseases exert a larger effect on death than other diseases especially on cold days. There is potential to reduce respiratory-associated mortality especially among the aged population in basin climate cities when the temperature deviates beneath the optimum. The result may help to comprehensively assess the

[Estimating and projecting the acute effect of cold spells on excess mortality under climate change in Guangzhou].

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Q H; Wang, W T; Wang, Y W; Li, T T

2018-04-06

Objective: To estimate future excess mortality attributable to cold spells in Guangzhou, China. Methods: We collected the mortality data and metrological data from 2009-2013 of Guangzhou to calculated the association between cold spell days and non-accidental mortality with GLM model. Then we projected future daily average temperatures (2020-2039 (2020s) , 2050-2069 (2050s) , 2080-2099 (2080s) ) with 5 GCMs models and 2 RCPs (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) to identify cold spell days. The baseline period was the 1980s (1980-1999). Finally, calculated the yearly cold spells related excess death of 1980s, 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s with average daily death count of non-cold spell days, exposure-response relationship, and yearly number of cold spell days. Results: The average of daily non-accidental mortality in Guangzhou from 2009 to 2013 was 96, and the average of daily average was 22.0 ℃. Cold spell days were associated with 3.3% (95% CI: 0.4%-6.2%) increase in non-accidental mortality. In 1980s, yearly cold spells related deaths were 34 (95% CI: 4-64). In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-10; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-9; and in 2080s, will increase by 1-9 under the RCP4.5 scenario. In 2020s, the number will increase by 0-9; in 2050s, the number will increase by 1-6; and in 2080s, will increase by 0-11 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Conclusion: The cold spells related non-accidental deaths in Guangzhou will increase in future under climate change.

The effect of time of day on cold water ingestion by high-level swimmers in a tropical climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Hue, Olivier; Monjo, Roland; Lazzaro, Marc; Baillot, Michelle; Hellard, Philippe; Marlin, Laurent; Jean-Etienne, A

2013-07-01

The authors tested the effect of cold water ingestion during high-intensity training in the morning vs the evening on both core temperature (TC) and thermal perceptions of internationally ranked long-distance swimmers during a training period in a tropical climate. Nine internationally ranked long-distance swimmers (5 men and 4 women) performed 4 randomized training sessions (2 in the evening and 2 in the morning) with 2 randomized beverages with different temperatures for 3 consecutive days. After a standardized warm-up of 1000 m, the subjects performed a standardized training session that consisted of 10 x 100 m (start every 1'20″) at a fixed velocity. The swimmers were then followed for the next 3000 m of the training schedule. Heart rate (HR) was continuously monitored during the 10 x 100 m, whereas TC, thermal comfort, and thermal sensation (TS) were measured before and after each 1000-m session. Before and after each 1000 m, the swimmers were asked to drink 190 mL of neutral (26.5 ± 2.5°C) or cold (1.3 ± 0.3°C) water packaged in standardized bottles. Results demonstrated that cold water ingestion induced a significant effect on TC, with a pronounced decrease in the evening, resulting in significantly lower mean TC and lower mean delta TC in evening cold (EC) than in evening neutral (EN), concomitant with significantly lower TS in EC than in EN and a significant effect on exercise HR. Moreover, although TC increased significantly with time in MN, MC, and EN, TC was stabilized during exercise in EC. To conclude, we demonstrate that a cold beverage had a significant effect on TC, TS, and HR during training in high-level swimmers in a tropical climate, especially during evening training.

Weather and climate needs for Lidar observations from space and concepts for their realization. [wind, temperature, moisture, and pressure data needs

Science.gov (United States)

Atlas, D.; Korb, C. L.

1980-01-01

The spectrum of weather and climate needs for Lidar observations from space is discussed with emphasis on the requirements for wind, temperature, moisture, and pressure data. It is shown that winds are required to realistically depict all atmospheric scales in the tropics and the smaller scales at higher latitudes, where both temperature and wind profiles are necessary. The need for means to estimate air-sea exchanges of sensible and latent heat also is noted. A concept for achieving this through a combination of Lidar cloud top heights and IR cloud top temperatures of cloud streets formed during cold air outbreaks over the warmer ocean is outlined. Recent theoretical feasibility studies concerning the profiling of temperatures, pressure, and humidity by differential absorption Lidar (DIAL) from space and expected accuracies are reviewed. An alternative approach to Doppler Lidar wind measurements also is presented. The concept involves the measurement of the displacement of the aerosol backscatter pattern, at constant heights, between two successive scans of the same area, one ahead of the spacecraft and the other behind it a few minutes later. Finally, an integrated space Lidar system capable of measuring temperature, pressure, humidity, and winds which combines the DIAL methods with the aerosol pattern displacement concept is described.

Climate | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Jump to Content Enter Search Terms Weather Climate Oceans & Coasts Fisheries Satellites your local weather Enter your ZIP code GO Enter Search Terms Content OUR WORK Climate From to help people understand and prepare for climate variability and change. Climate. NOAA From

Effects of lightweight outdoor clothing on the prevention of hypothermia during low-intensity exercise in the cold.

Science.gov (United States)

Burtscher, Martin; Kofler, Philipp; Gatterer, Hannes; Faulhaber, Martin; Philippe, Marc; Fischer, Kathrin; Walther, Rebekka; Herten, Anne

2012-11-01

To study protective effects of windbreaker jacket and pants during exercise in the cold. Randomized pilot study. Climate chamber. Nine well-trained (V[Combining Dot Above]O2max 61.7 ± 6.6 mL/min/kg) sport students (6 male and 3 female participants). Subjects started walking for 1 hour in a climate chamber (0°C ambient temperature and wind speed of 10 km/h) at 70% V[Combining Dot Above]O2max wearing gloves, a T-shirt, and shorts. Then, the walking speed was reduced to 30% V[Combining Dot Above]O2max for an additional 60 minutes or until core temperature dropped below 35.5°C. Subsequently, 3 groups of 3 participants continued walking without change of clothing or obtaining additionally a cap and a windbreaker jacket or windbreaker jacket and pants. Core and skin temperature, thermal comfort. The main findings of this study were that exercising at 70% V[Combining Dot Above]O2max in the cold was sufficient to prevent hypothermia and that during low-intensity exercise (30% V[Combining Dot Above]O2max), the combined use of a polyester cap, lightweight windbreaker jacket, and pants was necessary to increase a prehypothermic core temperature. We strongly recommend taking a cap, windbreaker jacket, and pants for the prevention of hypothermia during exhaustive walking or running in cold weather conditions.

Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

OpenAIRE

Jahn, Malte

2015-01-01

Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

Cold Climate Foundation Retrofit Experimental Hygrothermal Performance. Cloquet Residential Research Facility Laboratory Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Goldberg, Louise F. [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States); Harmon, Anna C. [NorthernSTAR, St. Paul, MN (United States)

2015-04-09

This project was funded jointly by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). ORNL focused on developing a full basement wall system experimental database to enable others to validate hygrothermal simulation codes. NREL focused on testing the moisture durability of practical basement wall interior insulation retrofit solutions for cold climates. The project has produced a physically credible and reliable long-term hygrothermal performance database for retrofit foundation wall insulation systems in zone 6 and 7 climates that are fully compliant with the performance criteria in the 2009 Minnesota Energy Code. These data currently span the period from November 10, 2012 through May 31, 2014 and are anticipated to be extended through November 2014. The experimental data were configured into a standard format that can be published online and that is compatible with standard commercially available spreadsheet and database software.

Impact of wind-driven rain on historic brick wall buildings in a moderately cold and humid climate: Numerical analyses of mould growth risk, indoor climate and energy consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masaru, Abuku; Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf

2009-01-01

This paper gives an onset to whole building hygrothermal modelling in which the interaction between interior and exterior climates via building enclosures is simulated under a moderately cold and humid climate. The focus is particularly on the impact of wind-driven rain (WDR) oil the hygrothermal...... response, mould growth at interior wall surfaces, indoor climate and energy consumption. First the WDR load oil the facades of a 4 m x 4 m x 10 m tower is determined. Then the hygrothermal behaviour of the brick walls is analysed oil a horizontal slice through the tower. The simulations demonstrate...

Finalize field testing of cold climate heat pump (CCHP) based on tandem vapor injection compressors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen, Bo [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Baxter, Van D. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Abdelaziz, Omar [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rice, C. Keith [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

2017-03-01

This report describes the system diagram and control algorithm of a prototype air-source cold climate heat pump (CCHP) using tandem vapor injection (VI) compressors. The prototype was installed in Fairbanks, Alaska and underwent field testing starting in 09/2016. The field testing results of the past six months, including compressor run time fractions, measured COPs and heating capacities, etc., are presented as a function of the ambient temperature. Two lessons learned are also reported.

Oil flooded compression cycle enhancement for two-stage heat pump in cold climate region: System design and theoretical analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Baojun

2016-01-01

Highlights: • COP of proposed system improves up to 17.2% compared with vapor injection cycle. • Discharge temperature of proposed system is largely decreased. • Proposed system is beneficial for refrigerant with high compression heat. • Proposed system has potential for applications in cold climate heat pump. - Abstract: In order to improve the performance of air source heat pump in cold climate region, a combined oil flooded compression with regenerator and vapor injection cycle system is suggested in this paper, which integrates oil flooded compression with regenerator into a conventional vapor injection cycle. A mathematical model is developed and parametric studies on this cycle are conducted to evaluate the benefits of the novel system. The performances of the novel system using R410A and R32 are compared with those of vapor injection cycle system. The improvement of coefficient of performance (COP) can reach up to nearly 9% based on the same isentropic efficiency, while 17.2% based on assumption that there is a 10% rise in isentropic efficiency brought by oil flooded compression cycle. The heating capacity is reduced by 8–18% based on the same volumetric efficiency, while could be less than 10% in a practical system. The discharge temperature is largely decreased and can be below 100 °C at −40 °C T_e and 50 °C T_c condition for R32. The theoretical results demonstrate this novel heat pump has a high potential for improving the performance of air source heat pump in cold climate region.

Weather conditions and political party vote share in Dutch national parliament elections, 1971-2010

Science.gov (United States)

Eisinga, Rob; Te Grotenhuis, Manfred; Pelzer, Ben

2012-11-01

Inclement weather on election day is widely seen to benefit certain political parties at the expense of others. Empirical evidence for this weather-vote share hypothesis is sparse however. We examine the effects of rainfall and temperature on share of the votes of eight political parties that participated in 13 national parliament elections, held in the Netherlands from 1971 to 2010. This paper merges the election results for all Dutch municipalities with election-day weather observations drawn from all official weather stations well distributed over the country. We find that the weather parameters affect the election results in a statistically and politically significant way. Whereas the Christian Democratic party benefits from substantial rain (10 mm) on voting day by gaining one extra seat in the 150-seat Dutch national parliament, the left-wing Social Democratic (Labor) and the Socialist parties are found to suffer from cold and wet conditions. Cold (5°C) and rainy (10 mm) election day weather causes the latter parties to lose one or two parliamentary seats.

Adapting to the Weather: Lessons from U.S. History.

Science.gov (United States)

Bleakley, Hoyt; Hong, Sok Chul

2017-09-01

An important unknown in understanding the impact of climate change is the scope of adaptation, which requires observations on historical time scales. We consider how weather across U.S. history (1860-2000) has affected various measures of productivity. Using cross-sectional and panel methods, we document significant responses of agricultural and individual productivity to weather. We find strong effects of hotter and wetter weather early in U.S. history, but these effects have been attenuated in recent decades. The results suggest that estimates from a given period may be of limited use in forecasting the longer-term impacts of climate change.

The 1430s: a cold period of extraordinary internal climate variability during the early Spörer Minimum with social and economic impacts in north-western and central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Camenisch, Chantal; Keller, Kathrin M.; Salvisberg, Melanie; Amann, Benjamin; Bauch, Martin; Blumer, Sandro; Brázdil, Rudolf; Brönnimann, Stefan; Büntgen, Ulf; Campbell, Bruce M. S.; Fernández-Donado, Laura; Fleitmann, Dominik; Glaser, Rüdiger; González-Rouco, Fidel; Grosjean, Martin; Hoffmann, Richard C.; Huhtamaa, Heli; Joos, Fortunat; Kiss, Andrea; Kotyza, Oldřich; Lehner, Flavio; Luterbacher, Jürg; Maughan, Nicolas; Neukom, Raphael; Novy, Theresa; Pribyl, Kathleen; Raible, Christoph C.; Riemann, Dirk; Schuh, Maximilian; Slavin, Philip; Werner, Johannes P.; Wetter, Oliver

2016-12-01

Changes in climate affected human societies throughout the last millennium. While European cold periods in the 17th and 18th century have been assessed in detail, earlier cold periods received much less attention due to sparse information available. New evidence from proxy archives, historical documentary sources and climate model simulations permit us to provide an interdisciplinary, systematic assessment of an exceptionally cold period in the 15th century. Our assessment includes the role of internal, unforced climate variability and external forcing in shaping extreme climatic conditions and the impacts on and responses of the medieval society in north-western and central Europe.Climate reconstructions from a multitude of natural and anthropogenic archives indicate that the 1430s were the coldest decade in north-western and central Europe in the 15th century. This decade is characterised by cold winters and average to warm summers resulting in a strong seasonal cycle in temperature. Results from comprehensive climate models indicate consistently that these conditions occurred by chance due to the partly chaotic internal variability within the climate system. External forcing like volcanic eruptions tends to reduce simulated temperature seasonality and cannot explain the reconstructions. The strong seasonal cycle in temperature reduced food production and led to increasing food prices, a subsistence crisis and a famine in parts of Europe. Societies were not prepared to cope with failing markets and interrupted trade routes. In response to the crisis, authorities implemented numerous measures of supply policy and adaptation such as the installation of grain storage capacities to be prepared for future food production shortfalls.

Using data assimilation to study extratropical Northern Hemisphere climate over the last millennium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Widmann

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Climate proxy data provide noisy, and spatially incomplete information on some aspects of past climate states, whereas palaeosimulations with climate models provide global, multi-variable states, which may however differ from the true states due to unpredictable internal variability not related to climate forcings, as well as due to model deficiencies. Using data assimilation for combining the empirical information from proxy data with the physical understanding of the climate system represented by the equations in a climate model is in principle a promising way to obtain better estimates for the climate of the past.

Data assimilation has been used for a long time in weather forecasting and atmospheric analyses to control the states in atmospheric General Circulation Models such that they are in agreement with observation from surface, upper air, and satellite measurements. Here we discuss the similarities and the differences between the data assimilation problem in palaeoclimatology and in weather forecasting, and present and conceptually compare three data assimilation methods that have been developed in recent years for applications in palaeoclimatology. All three methods (selection of ensemble members, Forcing Singular Vectors, and Pattern Nudging are illustrated by examples that are related to climate variability over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere during the last millennium. In particular it is shown that all three methods suggest that the cold period over Scandinavia during 1790–1820 is linked to anomalous northerly or easterly atmospheric flow, which in turn is related to a pressure anomaly that resembles a negative state of the Northern Annular Mode.

PCM thermal storage design in buildings: Experimental studies and applications to solaria in cold climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guarino, Francesco; Athienitis, Andreas; Cellura, Maurizio; Bastien, Diane

2017-01-01

Highlights: • This paper analyzes the performance of a building-integrated thermal storage system. • A wall opposing a glazed surface serves as phase change materials thermal storage. • The study is based on both experimental and simulation studies. • Heat is stored and released up to 6–8 h after solar irradiation. • Yearly heating requirements are reduced by 17% in a cold climate. - Abstract: As energy availability and demand often do not match, thermal energy storage plays a crucial role to take advantage of solar radiation in buildings: in particular, latent heat storage via phase-change material is particularly attractive due to its ability to provide high energy storage density. This paper analyzes the performance of a building-integrated thermal storage system to increase the energy performances of solaria in a cold climate. A wall opposing a highly glazed façade (south oriented) is used as thermal storage with phase change materials embedded in the wall. The study is based on both experimental and simulation studies. The concept considered is particularly suited to retrofits in a solarium since the PCM can be added as layers facing the large window on the vertical wall directly opposite. Results indicate that this PCM thermal storage system is effective during the whole year in a cold climate. The thermal storage allows solar radiation to be stored and released up to 6–8 h after solar irradiation: this has effects on both the reduction of daily temperature swings (up to 10 °C) and heating requirements (more than 17% on a yearly base). Coupling of the thermal storage system with natural ventilation is important during mid-seasons and summer to improve the PCM charge-discharge cycles and to reduce overheating. Results also show that cooling is less important than heating, reaching up to 20% of the overall annual energy requirements for the city of Montreal, Canada. Moreover, the phase change temperature range of the material used (18–24 �

Climate change scenario data for the national parks