The International Bleeding Risk Score

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Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Laine, L.; Dalton, H.

2017-01-01

The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding.......The International Bleeding Risk Score: A New Risk Score that can Accurately Predict Mortality in Patients with Upper GI-Bleeding....

Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding. DESIGN: International multicentre prospective study. SETTING: Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania...... clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined...... accuracy at predicting need for hospital based intervention or death. Scores of ≤1 appear the optimum threshold for directing patients to outpatient management. AUROCs of scores for the other endpoints are less than 0.80, therefore their clinical utility for these outcomes seems to be limited...

Thrombotic risk assessment in APS: the Global APS Score (GAPSS).

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Sciascia, S; Bertolaccini, M L

2014-10-01

Recently, we developed a risk score for antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) (Global APS Score or GAPSS). This score derived from the combination of independent risk factors for thrombosis and pregnancy loss, taking into account the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL) profile (criteria and non-criteria aPL), the conventional cardiovascular risk factors, and the autoimmune antibodies profile. We demonstrate that risk profile in APS can be successfully assessed, suggesting that GAPSS can be a potential quantitative marker of APS-related clinical manifestations. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

[Risk scores for community acquired pneumonia in elderly and geriatric patients].

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Pflug, M A; Wesemann, T; Heppner, H J; Thiem, U

2015-10-01

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is still an important and serious disease for elderly and geriatric patients. For epidemiological and clinical reasons it is important to collate the frequencies of the various degrees of severity of CAP and to obtain information on the spread and degree of the threat to the various risk groups by CAP. In outpatient treatment a simple to execute prognosis score can be used to objectify the assessment of the clinical status of a patient and to support therapeutic decision-making. For this purpose knowledge of the appropriate instruments should be available to potential users. Since the 1990s a variety of risk scores for stratification of CAP have been developed and evaluated. This article presents the content and value of the available risk scores whereby the advantages and disadvantages of the individual scores are critically compared. Special emphasis is placed on the importance of the risk scores for geriatric patients. At present the decision about outpatient or inpatient treatment is primarily based on the risk score CRB-65. Criteria for intensive care unit admissions are provided by the modified American Thoracic Society (ATS) set of criteria. Overall, risk scores are less reliable for elderly patients than for younger adults. For treatment decisions for the elderly, functional aspects should also be considered in addition to the aspects of risk scores discussed here. In particular, the decision about inpatient admission for elderly, geriatric CAP patients should be made on an individual basis taking the benefit-risk relationship into consideration.

What does my patient's coronary artery calcium score mean? Combining information from the coronary artery calcium score with information from conventional risk factors to estimate coronary heart disease risk

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Pletcher Mark J

2004-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The coronary artery calcium (CAC score is an independent predictor of coronary heart disease. We sought to combine information from the CAC score with information from conventional cardiac risk factors to produce post-test risk estimates, and to determine whether the score may add clinically useful information. Methods We measured the independent cross-sectional associations between conventional cardiac risk factors and the CAC score among asymptomatic persons referred for non-contrast electron beam computed tomography. Using the resulting multivariable models and published CAC score-specific relative risk estimates, we estimated post-test coronary heart disease risk in a number of different scenarios. Results Among 9341 asymptomatic study participants (age 35–88 years, 40% female, we found that conventional coronary heart disease risk factors including age, male sex, self-reported hypertension, diabetes and high cholesterol were independent predictors of the CAC score, and we used the resulting multivariable models for predicting post-test risk in a variety of scenarios. Our models predicted, for example, that a 60-year-old non-smoking non-diabetic women with hypertension and high cholesterol would have a 47% chance of having a CAC score of zero, reducing her 10-year risk estimate from 15% (per Framingham to 6–9%; if her score were over 100, however (a 17% chance, her risk estimate would be markedly higher (25–51% in 10 years. In low risk scenarios, the CAC score is very likely to be zero or low, and unlikely to change management. Conclusion Combining information from the CAC score with information from conventional risk factors can change assessment of coronary heart disease risk to an extent that may be clinically important, especially when the pre-test 10-year risk estimate is intermediate. The attached spreadsheet makes these calculations easy.

Validation of the Rockall risk scoring system in upper gastrointestinal bleeding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vreeburg, E. M.; Terwee, C. B.; Snel, P.; Rauws, E. A.; Bartelsman, J. F.; Meulen, J. H.; Tytgat, G. N.

1999-01-01

Several scoring systems have been developed to predict the risk of rebleeding or death in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). These risk scoring systems have not been validated in a new patient population outside the clinical context of the original study. To assess internal and

Development of a Simple Clinical Risk Score for Early Prediction of Severe Dengue in Adult Patients.

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Ing-Kit Lee

, irrespective of the day of illness onset, suggesting that our simple risk score can be easily implemented in resource-limited countries for early prediction of dengue patients at risk of SD provided that they have rapid dengue confirmed tests. For patients with other acute febrile illnesses or bacterial infections usually have SD risk score of >1. Thus, these scoring algorithms cannot totally replace good clinical judgement of the physician, and most importantly, early differentiating dengue from other febrile illnesses is critical for appropriate monitoring and management.

A clinically useful risk-score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection

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Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens; Ross, Michael

2014-01-01

baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 nadir, hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease predicted CKD and were included in the risk score (Figure 1). The incidence of CKD in those at low, medium and high risk was 0.8/1000 PYFU (95% CI 0.6-1.0), 5.6 (95% CI 4.5-6.7) and 37.4 (95% CI 34.......0-40.7) (Figure 1). The risk score showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistic 0.92, 95% CI 0.90-0.93). The number needed to harm (NNTH) in patients starting ATV or LPV/r was 1395, 142 or 20, respectively, among those with low, medium or high risk. NNTH were 603, 61 and 9 for those with a low, medium...

Prostate cancer staging with extracapsular extension risk scoring using multiparametric MRI

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boesen, Lars; Chabanova, Elizaveta; Løgager, Vibeke

2015-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the diagnostic performance of preoperative multiparametric MRI with extracapsular extension (ECE) risk-scoring in the assessment of prostate cancer tumour stage (T-stage) and prediction of ECE at final pathology. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Eighty-seven patients with clinically....../87 (36 %) patients. ECE risk-scoring showed an AUC of 0.65-0.86 on ROC-curve for both readers, with sensitivity and specificity of 81 % and 78 % at best cutoff level (reader A), respectively. When tumour characteristics were influenced by personal opinion, the sensitivity and specificity for prediction...... technique for preoperative prostate cancer staging • ECE risk scoring predicts extracapsular tumour extension at final pathology • ECE risk scoring shows an AUC of 0.86 on the ROC-curve • ECE risk scoring shows a moderate inter-reader agreement (K = 0.45) • Multiparametric MRI provides essential knowledge...

Personalized Risk Scoring for Critical Care Prognosis Using Mixtures of Gaussian Processes.

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Alaa, Ahmed M; Yoon, Jinsung; Hu, Scott; van der Schaar, Mihaela

2018-01-01

In this paper, we develop a personalized real-time risk scoring algorithm that provides timely and granular assessments for the clinical acuity of ward patients based on their (temporal) lab tests and vital signs; the proposed risk scoring system ensures timely intensive care unit admissions for clinically deteriorating patients. The risk scoring system is based on the idea of sequential hypothesis testing under an uncertain time horizon. The system learns a set of latent patient subtypes from the offline electronic health record data, and trains a mixture of Gaussian Process experts, where each expert models the physiological data streams associated with a specific patient subtype. Transfer learning techniques are used to learn the relationship between a patient's latent subtype and her static admission information (e.g., age, gender, transfer status, ICD-9 codes, etc). Experiments conducted on data from a heterogeneous cohort of 6321 patients admitted to Ronald Reagan UCLA medical center show that our score significantly outperforms the currently deployed risk scores, such as the Rothman index, MEWS, APACHE, and SOFA scores, in terms of timeliness, true positive rate, and positive predictive value. Our results reflect the importance of adopting the concepts of personalized medicine in critical care settings; significant accuracy and timeliness gains can be achieved by accounting for the patients' heterogeneity. The proposed risk scoring methodology can confer huge clinical and social benefits on a massive number of critically ill inpatients who exhibit adverse outcomes including, but not limited to, cardiac arrests, respiratory arrests, and septic shocks.

External validation of the NOBLADS score, a risk scoring system for severe acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding.

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Tomonori Aoki

Full Text Available We aimed to evaluate the generalizability of NOBLADS, a severe lower gastrointestinal bleeding (LGIB prediction model which we had previously derived when working at a different institution, using an external validation cohort. NOBLADS comprises the following factors: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug use, no diarrhea, no abdominal tenderness, blood pressure ≤ 100 mmHg, antiplatelet drug use, albumin < 3.0 g/dL, disease score ≥ 2, and syncope.We retrospectively analyzed 511 patients emergently hospitalized for acute LGIB at the University of Tokyo Hospital, from January 2009 to August 2016. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs-AUCs for severe bleeding (continuous and/or recurrent bleeding were compared between the original derivation cohort and the external validation cohort.Severe LGIB occurred in 44% of patients. Several clinical factors were significantly different between the external and derivation cohorts (p < 0.05, including background, laboratory data, NOBLADS scores, and diagnosis. The NOBLADS score predicted the severity of LGIB with an AUC value of 0.74 in the external validation cohort and one of 0.77 in the derivation cohort. In the external validation cohort, the score predicted the risk for blood transfusion need (AUC, 0.71, but was not adequate for predicting intervention need (AUC, 0.54. The in-hospital mortality rate was higher in patients with a score ≥ 5 than in those with a score < 5 (AUC, 0.83.Although the external validation cohort clinically differed from the derivation cohort in many ways, we confirmed the moderately high generalizability of NOBLADS, a clinical risk score for severe LGIB. Appropriate triage using this score may support early decision-making in various hospitals.

Cardiovascular risk scores for coronary atherosclerosis.

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Yalcin, Murat; Kardesoglu, Ejder; Aparci, Mustafa; Isilak, Zafer; Uz, Omer; Yiginer, Omer; Ozmen, Namik; Cingozbay, Bekir Yilmaz; Uzun, Mehmet; Cebeci, Bekir Sitki

2012-10-01

The objective of this study was to compare frequently used cardiovascular risk scores in predicting the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and 3-vessel disease. In 350 consecutive patients (218 men and 132 women) who underwent coronary angiography, the cardiovascular risk level was determined using the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), the Modified Framingham Risk Score (MFRS), the Prospective Cardiovascular Münster (PROCAM) score, and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE). The area under the curve for receiver operating characteristic curves showed that FRS had more predictive value than the other scores for CAD (area under curve, 0.76, P MFRS, PROCAM, and SCORE) may predict the presence and severity of coronary atherosclerosis.The FRS had better predictive value than the other scores.

External validation of the simple clinical score and the HOTEL score, two scores for predicting short-term mortality after admission to an acute medical unit.

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Stræde, Mia; Brabrand, Mikkel

2014-01-01

Clinical scores can be of aid to predict early mortality after admission to a medical admission unit. A developed scoring system needs to be externally validated to minimise the risk of the discriminatory power and calibration to be falsely elevated. We performed the present study with the objective of validating the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and the HOTEL score, two existing risk stratification systems that predict mortality for medical patients based solely on clinical information, but not only vital signs. Pre-planned prospective observational cohort study. Danish 460-bed regional teaching hospital. We included 3046 consecutive patients from 2 October 2008 until 19 February 2009. 26 (0.9%) died within one calendar day and 196 (6.4%) died within 30 days. We calculated SCS for 1080 patients. We found an AUROC of 0.960 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.932 to 0.988) for 24-hours mortality and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.774-0.879) for 30-day mortality, and goodness-of-fit test, χ(2) = 2.68 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.998 and χ(2) = 4.00, P = 0.947, respectively. We included 1470 patients when calculating the HOTEL score. Discriminatory power (AUROC) was 0.931 (95% CI, 0.901-0.962) for 24-hours mortality and goodness-of-fit test, χ(2) = 5.56 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.234. We find that both the SCS and HOTEL scores showed an excellent to outstanding ability in identifying patients at high risk of dying with good or acceptable precision.

Risk determination after an acute myocardial infarction: review of 3 clinical risk prediction tools.

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Scruth, Elizabeth Ann; Page, Karen; Cheng, Eugene; Campbell, Michelle; Worrall-Carter, Linda

2012-01-01

The objective of the study was to provide comprehensive information for the clinical nurse specialist (CNS) on commonly used clinical prediction (risk assessment) tools used to estimate risk of a secondary cardiac or noncardiac event and mortality in patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). The evolution and widespread adoption of primary PCI represent major advances in the treatment of acute myocardial infarction, specifically STEMI. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association have recommended early risk stratification for patients presenting with acute coronary syndromes using several clinical risk scores to identify patients' mortality and secondary event risk after PCI. Clinical nurse specialists are integral to any performance improvement strategy. Their knowledge and understandings of clinical prediction tools will be essential in carrying out important assessment, identifying and managing risk in patients who have sustained a STEMI, and enhancing discharge education including counseling on medications and lifestyle changes. Over the past 2 decades, risk scores have been developed from clinical trials to facilitate risk assessment. There are several risk scores that can be used to determine in-hospital and short-term survival. This article critiques the most common tools: the Thrombolytic in Myocardial Infarction risk score, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk score, and the Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications risk score. The importance of incorporating risk screening assessment tools (that are important for clinical prediction models) to guide therapeutic management of patients cannot be underestimated. The ability to forecast secondary risk after a STEMI will assist in determining which patients would require the most aggressive level of treatment and monitoring postintervention including

Risk scoring for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.

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Karmali, Kunal N; Persell, Stephen D; Perel, Pablo; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M; Berendsen, Mark A; Huffman, Mark D

2017-03-14

The current paradigm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) emphasises absolute risk assessment to guide treatment decisions in primary prevention. Although the derivation and validation of multivariable risk assessment tools, or CVD risk scores, have attracted considerable attention, their effect on clinical outcomes is uncertain. To assess the effects of evaluating and providing CVD risk scores in adults without prevalent CVD on cardiovascular outcomes, risk factor levels, preventive medication prescribing, and health behaviours. We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) in the Cochrane Library (2016, Issue 2), MEDLINE Ovid (1946 to March week 1 2016), Embase (embase.com) (1974 to 15 March 2016), and Conference Proceedings Citation Index-Science (CPCI-S) (1990 to 15 March 2016). We imposed no language restrictions. We searched clinical trial registers in March 2016 and handsearched reference lists of primary studies to identify additional reports. We included randomised and quasi-randomised trials comparing the systematic provision of CVD risk scores by a clinician, healthcare professional, or healthcare system compared with usual care (i.e. no systematic provision of CVD risk scores) in adults without CVD. Three review authors independently selected studies, extracted data, and evaluated study quality. We used the Cochrane 'Risk of bias' tool to assess study limitations. The primary outcomes were: CVD events, change in CVD risk factor levels (total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and multivariable CVD risk), and adverse events. Secondary outcomes included: lipid-lowering and antihypertensive medication prescribing in higher-risk people. We calculated risk ratios (RR) for dichotomous data and mean differences (MD) or standardised mean differences (SMD) for continuous data using 95% confidence intervals. We used a fixed-effects model when heterogeneity (I²) was at least 50% and a random-effects model for substantial heterogeneity

Prospects for using risk scores in polygenic medicine

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Cathryn M. Lewis

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Editorial summary Genome-wide association studies have made strides in identifying common variation associated with disease. The modest effect sizes preclude risk prediction based on single genetic variants, but polygenic risk scores that combine thousands of variants show some predictive ability across a range of complex traits and diseases, including neuropsychiatric disorders. Here, we consider the potential for translation to clinical use.

Adding an alcohol-related risk score to an existing categorical risk classification for older adults: sensitivity to group differences.

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Wilson, Sandra R; Fink, Arlene; Verghese, Shinu; Beck, John C; Nguyen, Khue; Lavori, Philip

2007-03-01

To evaluate a new alcohol-related risk score for research use. Using data from a previously reported trial of a screening and education system for older adults (Computerized Alcohol-Related Problems Survey), secondary analyses were conducted comparing the ability of two different measures of risk to detect post-intervention group differences: the original categorical outcome measure and a new, finely grained quantitative risk score based on the same research-based risk factors. Three primary care group practices in southern California. Six hundred sixty-five patients aged 65 and older. A previously calculated, three-level categorical classification of alcohol-related risk and a newly developed quantitative risk score. Mean post-intervention risk scores differed between the three experimental conditions: usual care, patient report, and combined report (Ptrinary risk classification. The additional clinical value of the risk score relative to the categorical measure needs to be determined.

External Validation of the Simple Clinical Score and the HOTEL Score, Two Scores for Predicting Short-Term Mortality after Admission to an Acute Medical Unit

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Stræde, Mia; Brabrand, Mikkel

2014-01-01

with the objective of validating the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and the HOTEL score, two existing risk stratification systems that predict mortality for medical patients based solely on clinical information, but not only vital signs. METHODS: Pre-planned prospective observational cohort study. SETTING: Danish 460.......932 to 0.988) for 24-hours mortality and 0.826 (95% CI, 0.774-0.879) for 30-day mortality, and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 2.68 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.998 and χ2 = 4.00, P = 0.947, respectively. We included 1470 patients when calculating the HOTEL score. Discriminatory power (AUROC) was 0.931 (95......% CI, 0.901-0.962) for 24-hours mortality and goodness-of-fit test, χ2 = 5.56 (10 degrees of freedom), P = 0.234. CONCLUSION: We find that both the SCS and HOTEL scores showed an excellent to outstanding ability in identifying patients at high risk of dying with good or acceptable precision....

Pre-operative risk scores for the prediction of outcome in elderly people who require emergency surgery

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Bates Tom

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The decision on whether to operate on a sick elderly person with an intra-abdominal emergency is one of the most difficult in general surgery. A predictive risk-score would be of great value in this situation. Methods A Medline search was performed to identify those predictive risk-scores relevant to sick elderly patients in whom emergency surgery might be life-saving. Results Many of the risk scores for surgical patients include the operative findings or require tests which are not available in the acute situation. Most of the relevant studies include younger patients and elective surgery. The Glasgow Aneurysm Score and Hardman Index are specific to ruptured aortic aneurysm while the Boey Score and the Hacetteppe Score are specific to perforated peptic ulcer. The Reiss Index and Fitness Score can be used pre-operatively if the elements of the score can be completed in time. The ASA score, which includes a significant element of subjective clinical judgement, can be augmented with factors such as age and urgency of surgery but no test has a negative predictive value sufficient to recommend against surgical intervention without clinical input. Conclusion Risk scores may be helpful in sick elderly patients needing emergency abdominal surgery but an experienced clinical opinion is still essential.

Risk score predicts high-grade prostate cancer in DNA-methylation positive, histopathologically negative biopsies.

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Van Neste, Leander; Partin, Alan W; Stewart, Grant D; Epstein, Jonathan I; Harrison, David J; Van Criekinge, Wim

2016-09-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnosis is challenging because efforts for effective, timely treatment of men with significant cancer typically result in over-diagnosis and repeat biopsies. The presence or absence of epigenetic aberrations, more specifically DNA-methylation of GSTP1, RASSF1, and APC in histopathologically negative prostate core biopsies has resulted in an increased negative predictive value (NPV) of ∼90% and thus could lead to a reduction of unnecessary repeat biopsies. Here, it is investigated whether, in methylation-positive men, DNA-methylation intensities could help to identify those men harboring high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) PCa, resulting in an improved positive predictive value. Two cohorts, consisting of men with histopathologically negative index biopsies, followed by a positive or negative repeat biopsy, were combined. EpiScore, a methylation intensity algorithm was developed in methylation-positive men, using area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic as metric for performance. Next, a risk score was developed combining EpiScore with traditional clinical risk factors to further improve the identification of high-grade (Gleason Score ≥7) cancer. Compared to other risk factors, detection of DNA-methylation in histopathologically negative biopsies was the most significant and important predictor of high-grade cancer, resulting in a NPV of 96%. In methylation-positive men, EpiScore was significantly higher for those with high-grade cancer detected upon repeat biopsy, compared to those with either no or low-grade cancer. The risk score resulted in further improvement of patient risk stratification and was a significantly better predictor compared to currently used metrics as PSA and the prostate cancer prevention trial (PCPT) risk calculator (RC). A decision curve analysis indicated strong clinical utility for the risk score as decision-making tool for repeat biopsy. Low DNA-methylation levels in PCa-negative biopsies led

A scoring system for ascertainment of incident stroke; the Risk Index Score (RISc).

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Kass-Hout, T A; Moyé, L A; Smith, M A; Morgenstern, L B

2006-01-01

The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a computer-based statistical algorithm that could be translated into a simple scoring system in order to ascertain incident stroke cases using hospital admission medical records data. The Risk Index Score (RISc) algorithm was developed using data collected prospectively by the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi (BASIC) project, 2000. The validity of RISc was evaluated by estimating the concordance of scoring system stroke ascertainment to stroke ascertainment by physician and/or abstractor review of hospital admission records. RISc was developed on 1718 randomly selected patients (training set) and then statistically validated on an independent sample of 858 patients (validation set). A multivariable logistic model was used to develop RISc and subsequently evaluated by goodness-of-fit and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses. The higher the value of RISc, the higher the patient's risk of potential stroke. The study showed RISc was well calibrated and discriminated those who had potential stroke from those that did not on initial screening. In this study we developed and validated a rapid, easy, efficient, and accurate method to ascertain incident stroke cases from routine hospital admission records for epidemiologic investigations. Validation of this scoring system was achieved statistically; however, clinical validation in a community hospital setting is warranted.

Clinical utility of metabolic syndrome severity scores: considerations for practitioners

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DeBoer MD

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Mark D DeBoer,1,2 Matthew J Gurka2 11Division of Pediatric Endocrinology, Department of Pediatrics, University of Virginia School of Medicine, Charlottesville, VA, 2Department of Health Outcomes and Policy, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Abstract: The metabolic syndrome (MetS is marked by abnormalities in central obesity, high blood pressure, high triglycerides, low high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, and high fasting glucose and appears to be produced by underlying processes of inflammation, oxidative stress, and adipocyte dysfunction. MetS has traditionally been classified based on dichotomous criteria that deny that MetS-related risk likely exists as a spectrum. Continuous MetS scores provide a way to track MetS-related risk over time. We generated MetS severity scores that are sex- and race/ethnicity-specific, acknowledging that the way MetS is manifested may be different by sex and racial/ethnic subgroup. These scores are correlated with long-term risk for type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. Clinical use of scores like these provide a potential opportunity to identify patients at highest risk, motivate patients toward lifestyle change, and follow treatment progress over time. Keywords: metabolic syndrome, insulin resistance, cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, risk prediction

Scores for post-myocardial infarction risk stratification in the community.

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Singh, Mandeep; Reeder, Guy S; Jacobsen, Steven J; Weston, Susan; Killian, Jill; Roger, Véronique L

2002-10-29

Several scores, most of which were derived from clinical trials, have been proposed for stratifying risk after myocardial infarctions (MIs). Little is known about their generalizability to the community, their respective advantages, and whether the ejection fraction (EF) adds prognostic information to the scores. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Predicting Risk of Death in Cardiac Disease Tool (PREDICT) scores in a geographically defined MI cohort and determine the incremental value of EF for risk stratification. MIs occurring in Olmsted County were validated with the use of standardized criteria and stratified with the ECG into ST-segment elevation (STEMI) and non-ST-segment elevation (NSTEMI) MI. Logistic regression examined the discriminant accuracy of the TIMI and PREDICT scores to predict death and recurrent MI and assessed the incremental value of the EF. After 6.3+/-4.7 years, survival was similar for the 562 STEMIs and 717 NSTEMIs. The discriminant accuracy of the TIMI score was good in STEMI but only fair in NSTEMI. Across time and end points, irrespective of reperfusion therapy, the discriminant accuracy of the PREDICT score was consistently superior to that of the TIMI scores, largely because PREDICT includes comorbidity; EF provided incremental information over that provided by the scores and comorbidity. In the community, comorbidity and EF convey important prognostic information and should be included in approaches for stratifying risk after MI.

Clinical Utility of a Coronary Heart Disease Risk Prediction Gene Score in UK Healthy Middle Aged Men and in the Pakistani Population.

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Katherine E Beaney

Full Text Available Numerous risk prediction algorithms based on conventional risk factors for Coronary Heart Disease (CHD are available but provide only modest discrimination. The inclusion of genetic information may improve clinical utility.We tested the use of two gene scores (GS in the prospective second Northwick Park Heart Study (NPHSII of 2775 healthy UK men (284 cases, and Pakistani case-control studies from Islamabad/Rawalpindi (321 cases/228 controls and Lahore (414 cases/219 controls. The 19-SNP GS included SNPs in loci identified by GWAS and candidate gene studies, while the 13-SNP GS only included SNPs in loci identified by the CARDIoGRAMplusC4D consortium.In NPHSII, the mean of both gene scores was higher in those who went on to develop CHD over 13.5 years of follow-up (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=7x10-3. In combination with the Framingham algorithm the GSs appeared to show improvement in discrimination (increase in area under the ROC curve, 19-SNP p=0.48, 13-SNP p=0.82 and risk classification (net reclassification improvement (NRI, 19-SNP p=0.28, 13-SNP p=0.42 compared to the Framingham algorithm alone, but these were not statistically significant. When considering only individuals who moved up a risk category with inclusion of the GS, the improvement in risk classification was statistically significant (19-SNP p=0.01, 13-SNP p=0.04. In the Pakistani samples, risk allele frequencies were significantly lower compared to NPHSII for 13/19 SNPs. In the Islamabad study, the mean gene score was higher in cases than controls only for the 13-SNP GS (2.24 v 2.34, p=0.04. There was no association with CHD and either score in the Lahore study.The performance of both GSs showed potential clinical utility in European men but much less utility in subjects from Pakistan, suggesting that a different set of risk loci or SNPs may be required for risk prediction in the South Asian population.

[The scoring system for the risk-stratification in patients with the antiphospholipid syndrome].

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Oku, Kenji

2017-01-01

  Antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is a clinical disorder characterized by thrombosis and/or pregnancy morbidity in the persistence of the pathogenic autoantibodies, the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Recurernt thrombosis is often observed in patients with APS which requires persistent prophylaxis. However, an uniform prophylactic treatment for APS patients is inadequate and stratification of the thrombotic risks is important as aPL are prevalently observed in other various diseases or elderly population. It is previously known that the multiple positivity or high titre of aPL correlate to the thrombotic events. To progress the stratification of the thrombotic risks and to quantitatively analyze them, antiphospholipid score (aPL-S) and the Global Anti-Phospholipid Syndrome Score (GAPSS) were defined as the scoring-systems. Both of these scoring-systems were raised from the large patient cohort data and either aPL profile classified in detail (aPL-S) or simplified aPL profile with classical thrombotic risk factors (GAPSS) were put into scoring system. They have shown a degree of accuracy in identifying high-risk APS patients, especially those at a high risk of thrombosis. However, there are several areas requiring improvement, or at least that clinicians should be aware of, before these instruments are applied in clinical practice. One such issue is standardisation of the aPL tests, including general testing of phosphatidylserine dependent antiprothrombin antibodies (aPS/PT).

Risk score to predict gastrointestinal bleeding after acute ischemic stroke.

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Ji, Ruijun; Shen, Haipeng; Pan, Yuesong; Wang, Penglian; Liu, Gaifen; Wang, Yilong; Li, Hao; Singhal, Aneesh B; Wang, Yongjun

2014-07-25

Gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a common and often serious complication after stroke. Although several risk factors for post-stroke GIB have been identified, no reliable or validated scoring system is currently available to predict GIB after acute stroke in routine clinical practice or clinical trials. In the present study, we aimed to develop and validate a risk model (acute ischemic stroke associated gastrointestinal bleeding score, the AIS-GIB score) to predict in-hospital GIB after acute ischemic stroke. The AIS-GIB score was developed from data in the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR). Eligible patients in the CNSR were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and internal validation (40%) cohorts. External validation was performed using data from the prospective Chinese Intracranial Atherosclerosis Study (CICAS). Independent predictors of in-hospital GIB were obtained using multivariable logistic regression in the derivation cohort, and β-coefficients were used to generate point scoring system for the AIS-GIB. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration, respectively. A total of 8,820, 5,882, and 2,938 patients were enrolled in the derivation, internal validation and external validation cohorts. The overall in-hospital GIB after AIS was 2.6%, 2.3%, and 1.5% in the derivation, internal, and external validation cohort, respectively. An 18-point AIS-GIB score was developed from the set of independent predictors of GIB including age, gender, history of hypertension, hepatic cirrhosis, peptic ulcer or previous GIB, pre-stroke dependence, admission National Institutes of Health stroke scale score, Glasgow Coma Scale score and stroke subtype (Oxfordshire). The AIS-GIB score showed good discrimination in the derivation (0.79; 95% CI, 0.764-0.825), internal (0.78; 95% CI, 0.74-0.82) and external (0.76; 95% CI, 0.71-0.82) validation cohorts

Development of the siriraj clinical asthma score.

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Vichyanond, Pakit; Veskitkul, Jittima; Rienmanee, Nuanphong; Pacharn, Punchama; Jirapongsananuruk, Orathai; Visitsunthorn, Nualanong

2013-09-01

Acute asthmatic attack in children commonly occurs despite the introduction of effective controllers such as inhaled corticosteroids and leukotriene modifiers. Treatment of acute asthmatic attack requires proper evaluation of attack severity and appropriate selection of medical therapy. In children, measurement of lung function is difficult during acute attack and thus clinical asthma scoring may aid physician in making further decision regarding treatment and admission. We enrolled 70 children with acute asthmatic attack with age range from 1 to 12 years (mean ± SD = 51.5 ± 31.8 months) into the study. Twelve selected asthma severity items were assessed by 2 independent observers prior to administration of salbutamol nebulization (up to 3 doses at 20 minutes interval). Decision for further therapy and admission was made by emergency department physician. Three different scoring systems were constructed from items with best validity. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of these scores were assessed. Inter-rater reliability was assessed for each score. Review of previous scoring systems was also conducted and reported. Three severity items had poor validity, i.e., cyanosis, depressed cerebral function, and I:E ratio (p > 0.05). Three items had poor inter-rater reliability, i.e., breath sound quality, air entry, and I:E ratio. These items were omitted and three new clinical scores were constructed from the remaining items. Clinical scoring system comprised retractions, dyspnea, O2 saturation, respiratory rate and wheezing (rangeof score 0-10) gave the best accuracy and inter-rater variability and were chosen for clinical use-Siriraj Clinical Asthma Score (SCAS). A Clinical Asthma Score that is simple, relatively easy to administer and with good validity and variability is essential for treatment of acute asthma in children. Several good candidate scores have been introduced in the past. We described the development of the Siriraj Clinical Asthma Score (SCAS) in

Melanoma risk prediction using a multilocus genetic risk score in the Women's Health Initiative cohort.

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Cho, Hyunje G; Ransohoff, Katherine J; Yang, Lingyao; Hedlin, Haley; Assimes, Themistocles; Han, Jiali; Stefanick, Marcia; Tang, Jean Y; Sarin, Kavita Y

2018-07-01

Single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with melanoma have been identified though genome-wide association studies. However, the combined impact of these SNPs on melanoma development remains unclear, particularly in postmenopausal women who carry a lower melanoma risk. We examine the contribution of a combined polygenic risk score on melanoma development in postmenopausal women. Genetic risk scores were calculated using 21 genome-wide association study-significant SNPs. Their combined effect on melanoma development was evaluated in 19,102 postmenopausal white women in the clinical trial and observational study arms of the Women's Health Initiative dataset. Compared to the tertile of weighted genetic risk score with the lowest genetic risk, the women in the tertile with the highest genetic risk were 1.9 times more likely to develop melanoma (95% confidence interval 1.50-2.42). The incremental change in c-index from adding genetic risk scores to age were 0.075 (95% confidence interval 0.041-0.109) for incident melanoma. Limitations include a lack of information on nevi count, Fitzpatrick skin type, family history of melanoma, and potential reporting and selection bias in the Women's Health Initiative cohort. Higher genetic risk is associated with increased melanoma prevalence and incidence in postmenopausal women, but current genetic information may have a limited role in risk prediction when phenotypic information is available. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

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Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

2018-01-01

A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

External validation of a clinical scoring system for the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Leeuwen, M.; Opmeer, B. C.; Zweers, E. J. K.; van Ballegooie, E.; ter Brugge, H. G.; de Valk, H. W.; Visser, G. H. A.; Mol, B. W. J.

Aim: A prediction rule for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) could be helpful in early detection and increased efficiency of screening. A prediction rule by means of a clinical scoring system is available, but has never been validated externally. The aim of this study was to validate the scoring

Recurrent Stroke: The Value of the CHA2DS2VASc Score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score in a Nationwide Stroke Cohort.

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Andersen, Søren Due; Gorst-Rasmussen, Anders; Lip, Gregory Y H; Bach, Flemming W; Larsen, Torben Bjerregaard

2015-09-01

The CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score are respectively used for risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation and in patients with cerebrovascular incidents. We aimed to test the ability of the 2 scores to predict stroke recurrence, death, and cardiovascular events (stroke, transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, or arterial thromboembolism) in a nationwide Danish cohort study, among patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. We conducted a registry-based study in patients with incident ischemic stroke and no atrial fibrillation. Patients were stratified according to the CHA2DS2VASc score and the Essen Stroke Risk Score and were followed up until stroke recurrence or death. We estimated stratified incidence rates and hazard ratios and calculated the cumulative risks. 42 182 patients with incident ischemic stroke with median age 70.1 years were included. The overall 1-year incidence rates of recurrent stroke, death, and cardiovascular events were 3.6%, 10.5%, and 6.7%, respectively. The incidence rates, the hazard ratios, and the cumulative risk of all outcomes increased with increasing risk scores. C-statistics for both risk scores were around 0.55 for 1-year stroke recurrence and cardiovascular events and correspondingly for death around 0.67 for both scores. In this cohort of non-atrial fibrillation patients with incident ischemic stroke, increasing CHA2DS2VASc score and Essen Stroke Risk Score was associated with increasing risk of recurrent stroke, death, and cardiovascular events. Their discriminatory performance was modest and further refinements are required for clinical application. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Pneumonia Risk Stratification Scores for Children in Low-Resource Settings: A Systematic Literature Review.

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Deardorff, Katrina V; McCollum, Eric D; Ginsburg, Amy Sarah

2017-12-22

Pneumonia is the leading infectious cause of death among children less than five years of age. Predictive tools, commonly referred to as risk scores, can be employed to identify high-risk children early for targeted management to prevent adverse outcomes. This systematic review was conducted to identify pediatric pneumonia risk scores developed, validated, and implemented in low-resource settings. We searched CAB Direct, Cochrane Reviews, Embase, PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science for studies that developed formal risk scores to predict treatment failure or mortality among children less than five years of age diagnosed with a respiratory infection or pneumonia in low-resource settings. Data abstracted from articles included location and study design, sample size, age, diagnosis, score features and model discrimination. Three pediatric pneumonia risk scores predicted mortality specifically, and two treatment failure. Scores developed using World Health Organization recommended variables for pneumonia assessment demonstrated better predictive fit than scores developed using alternative features. Scores developed using routinely collected healthcare data performed similarly well as those developed using clinical trial data. No score has been implemented in low-resource settings. While pediatric pneumonia-specific risk scores have been developed and validated, it is yet unclear if implementation is feasible, what impact, if any, implemented scores may have on child outcomes, or how broadly scores may be generalized. To increase the feasibility of implementation, future research should focus on developing scores based on routinely collected data.

A brief screening tool for assessing psychological trauma in clinical practice: development and validation of the New York PTSD Risk Score.

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Boscarino, Joseph A; Kirchner, H Lester; Hoffman, Stuart N; Sartorius, Jennifer; Adams, Richard E; Figley, Charles R

2011-01-01

The objective was to develop a brief posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) screening instrument that is useful in clinical practice, similar to the Framingham Risk Score used in cardiovascular medicine. We used data collected in New York City after the World Trade Center disaster (WTCD) and other trauma data to develop a new PTSD prediction tool--the New York PTSD Risk Score. We used diagnostic test methods to examine different clinical domains, including PTSD symptoms, trauma exposures, sleep disturbances, suicidal thoughts, depression symptoms, demographic factors and other measures to assess different PTSD prediction models. Using receiver operating curve (ROC) and bootstrap methods, five prediction domains, including core PTSD symptoms, sleep disturbance, access to care status, depression symptoms and trauma history, and five demographic variables, including gender, age, education, race and ethnicity, were identified. For the best prediction model, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.880 for the Primary Care PTSD Screen alone (specificity=82.2%, sensitivity=93.7%). Adding care status, sleep disturbance, depression and trauma exposure increased the AUC to 0.943 (specificity=85.7%, sensitivity=93.1%), a significant ROC improvement (Pdevelopment and validation samples. The New York PTSD Risk Score is a multifactor prediction tool that includes the Primary Care PTSD Screen, depression symptoms, access to care, sleep disturbance, trauma history and demographic variables and appears to be effective in predicting PTSD among patients seen in healthcare settings. This prediction tool is simple to administer and appears to outperform other screening measures. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The clinical performance of an office-based risk scoring system for fatal cardiovascular diseases in North-East of Iran.

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Sadaf G Sepanlou

Full Text Available Cardiovascular diseases (CVD are becoming major causes of death in developing countries. Risk scoring systems for CVD are needed to prioritize allocation of limited resources. Most of these risk score algorithms have been based on a long array of risk factors including blood markers of lipids. However, risk scoring systems that solely use office-based data, not including laboratory markers, may be advantageous. In the current analysis, we validated the office-based Framingham risk scoring system in Iran.The study used data from the Golestan Cohort in North-East of Iran. The following risk factors were used in the development of the risk scoring method: sex, age, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, hypertension treatment, current smoking, and diabetes. Cardiovascular risk functions for prediction of 10-year risk of fatal CVDs were developed.A total of 46,674 participants free of CVD at baseline were included. Predictive value of estimated risks was examined. The resulting Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC was 0.774 (95% CI: 0.762-0.787 in all participants, 0.772 (95% CI: 0.753-0.791 in women, and 0.763 (95% CI: 0.747-0.779 in men. AUC was higher in urban areas (0.790, 95% CI: 0.766-0.815. The predicted and observed risks of fatal CVD were similar in women. However, in men, predicted probabilities were higher than observed.The AUC in the current study is comparable to results of previous studies while lipid profile was replaced by body mass index to develop an office-based scoring system. This scoring algorithm is capable of discriminating individuals at high risk versus low risk of fatal CVD.

A predictive score for retinopathy of prematurity by using clinical risk factors and serum insulin-like growth factor-1 levels

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Yeşim Coşkun

2017-11-01

Full Text Available AIM: To detect the impact of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1 and other risk factors for the early prediction of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP and to establish a scoring system for ROP prediction by using clinical criteria and serum IGF-1 levels. METHODS: The study was conducted with 127 preterm infants. IGF-1 levels in the 1st day of life, 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th week of life was analyzed. The score was established after logistic regression analysis, considering the impact of each variable on the occurrences of any stage ROP. A validation cohort containing 107 preterm infants was included in the study and the predictive ability of ROP score was calculated. RESULTS: Birth weights (BW, gestational weeks (GW and the prevalence of breast milk consumption were lower, respiratory distress syndrome (RDS, bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD and necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC were more frequent, the duration of mechanical ventilation and oxygen supplementation was longer in patients with ROP (P<0.05. Initial serum IGF-1 levels tended to be lower in newborns who developed ROP. Logistic regression analysis revealed that low BW (<1250 g, presence of intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH and formula feeding increased the risk of ROP. Afterwards, the scoring system was validated on 107 infants. The negative predictive values of a score less than 4 were 84.3%, 74.7% and 79.8% while positive predictive values were 76.3%, 65.5% and 71.6% respectively. CONCLUSION: In addition to BW <1250 g and IVH, formula consumption was detected as a risk factor for the development of ROP. Breastfeeding is important for prevention of ROP in preterm infants.

A risk-scoring scheme for suicide attempts among patients with bipolar disorder in a Thai patient cohort

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Patumanond J

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Chidchanok Ruengorn1,2, Kittipong Sanichwankul3, Wirat Niwatananun2, Suwat Mahatnirunkul3, Wanida Pumpaisalchai3, Jayanton Patumanond11Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 2Department of Pharmaceutical Care, Faculty of Pharmacy, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand; 3Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital, Chiang Mai, ThailandBackground: In Thailand, risk factors associated with suicide attempts in bipolar disorder (BD are rarely investigated, nor has a specific risk-scoring scheme to assist in the identification of BD patients at risk for attempting suicide been proposed.Objective: To develop a simple risk-scoring scheme to identify patients with BD who may be at risk for attempting suicide.Methods: Medical files of 489 patients diagnosed with BD at Suanprung Psychiatric Hospital between October 2006 and May 2009 were reviewed. Cases included BD patients hospitalized due to attempted suicide (n = 58, and seven controls were selected (per suicide case among BD in- and out-patients who did not attempt suicide, with patients being visited the same day or within 1 week of case study (n = 431. Broad sociodemographic and clinical factors were gathered and analyzed using multivariate logistic regression, to obtain a set of risk factors. Scores for each indicator were weighted, assigned, and summed to create a total risk score, which was divided into low, moderate, and high-risk suicide attempt groups.Results: Six statistically significant indicators associated with suicide attempts were included in the risk-scoring scheme: depression, psychotic symptom(s, number of previous suicide attempts, stressful life event(s, medication adherence, and BD treatment years. A total risk score (possible range -1.5 to 11.5 explained an 88.6% probability of suicide attempts based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis. Likelihood ratios of suicide attempts with low risk scores (below 2

Clinical predictive score of intracranial hemorrhage in mild traumatic brain injury

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Yuksen C

2018-02-01

predictive of intracranial hemorrhage. The clinical risk scores to predict intracranial hemorrhage are developed with an accuracy of 92%. The score of >3 had the likelihood of intracranial hemorrhage by 1.47 times.Conclusion: Clinical predictive score of >3 was associated with intracranial hemorrhage in mild TBI. Keywords: predictive model, CT brain, risk score

[Cardiovascular risk by Framingham and SCORE in patients 40-65 years old].

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González, Carmen; Rodilla, Enrique; Costa, José A; Justicia, Jorge; Pascual, José M

2006-04-15

The aim of this study was to compare the clinical and treatment implications of 2 cardiovascular risk stratification systems in a population of patients 40-65 years old. 929 non diabetic patients (40-65 years old) (51% female) with no evidence of previous cardiovascular disease were included in the study. The risk of cardiovascular death was assessed with the charts of the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and coronary risk by the Framingham function (National Cholesterol Education Program Expert Panel on Detection, Evaluation and Treatment of High Blood Cholesterol in Adults -NCEP-ATP-III-). Patients were considered of high risk if risk of cardiovascular death was >or= 5% and coronary risk was > 20%, respectively. 4.1% of patients were considered as high risk by SCORE and 2.5% by Framingham. Only 0.2% of females were classified as high risk with either system. 8.2% and 4.8% of male population were considered as high risk by SCORE and Framingham, respectively. There was a low level of concordance between both systems. Patients classified as high risk by SCORE but not by Framingham were older, smoke less and had a better lipid profile. According to European Guidelines 28% of male and 23% of female were candidates to hypolipemic treatment, that proportion was higher, 43% of males and 28% of females, by NCEP-ATP-III guidelines. In Spanish patients 40-65 years old, SCORE charts almost duplicate the number of high risk individuals compared to Framingham. although the number of patients candidates to hypolipemic treatment is lower with the European than ATP-III guidelines. Differences were more evident in male.

The "polyenviromic risk score": Aggregating environmental risk factors predicts conversion to psychosis in familial high-risk subjects.

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Padmanabhan, Jaya L; Shah, Jai L; Tandon, Neeraj; Keshavan, Matcheri S

2017-03-01

Young relatives of individuals with schizophrenia (i.e. youth at familial high-risk, FHR) are at increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, and show higher rates of psychiatric symptoms, cognitive and neurobiological abnormalities than non-relatives. It is not known whether overall exposure to environmental risk factors increases risk of conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Subjects consisted of a pilot longitudinal sample of 83 young FHR subjects. As a proof of principle, we examined whether an aggregate score of exposure to environmental risk factors, which we term a 'polyenviromic risk score' (PERS), could predict conversion to psychosis. The PERS combines known environmental risk factors including cannabis use, urbanicity, season of birth, paternal age, obstetric and perinatal complications, and various types of childhood adversity, each weighted by its odds ratio for association with psychosis in the literature. A higher PERS was significantly associated with conversion to psychosis in young, familial high-risk subjects (OR=1.97, p=0.009). A model combining the PERS and clinical predictors had a sensitivity of 27% and specificity of 96%. An aggregate index of environmental risk may help predict conversion to psychosis in FHR subjects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Science.gov (United States)

Israel, Salomon; Caspi, Avshalom; Belsky, Daniel W; Harrington, HonaLee; Hogan, Sean; Houts, Renate; Ramrakha, Sandhya; Sanders, Seth; Poulton, Richie; Moffitt, Terrie E

2014-12-02

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions.

Association of a Dietary Score with Incident Type 2 Diabetes: The Dietary-Based Diabetes-Risk Score (DDS.

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Ligia J Dominguez

Full Text Available Strong evidence supports that dietary modifications may decrease incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Numerous diabetes risk models/scores have been developed, but most do not rely specifically on dietary variables or do not fully capture the overall dietary pattern. We prospectively assessed the association of a dietary-based diabetes-risk score (DDS, which integrates optimal food patterns, with the risk of developing T2DM in the SUN ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" longitudinal study.We assessed 17,292 participants initially free of diabetes, followed-up for a mean of 9.2 years. A validated 136-item FFQ was administered at baseline. Taking into account previous literature, the DDS positively weighted vegetables, fruit, whole cereals, nuts, coffee, low-fat dairy, fiber, PUFA, and alcohol in moderate amounts; while it negatively weighted red meat, processed meats and sugar-sweetened beverages. Energy-adjusted quintiles of each item (with exception of moderate alcohol consumption that received either 0 or 5 points were used to build the DDS (maximum: 60 points. Incident T2DM was confirmed through additional detailed questionnaires and review of medical records of participants. We used Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for socio-demographic and anthropometric parameters, health-related habits, and clinical variables to estimate hazard ratios (HR of T2DM.We observed 143 T2DM confirmed cases during follow-up. Better baseline conformity with the DDS was associated with lower incidence of T2DM (multivariable-adjusted HR for intermediate (25-39 points vs. low (11-24 category 0.43 [95% confidence interval (CI 0.21, 0.89]; and for high (40-60 vs. low category 0.32 [95% CI: 0.14, 0.69]; p for linear trend: 0.019.The DDS, a simple score exclusively based on dietary components, showed a strong inverse association with incident T2DM. This score may be applicable in clinical practice to improve dietary habits of subjects at high risk of T2DM

Unsupervised deep learning applied to breast density segmentation and mammographic risk scoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kallenberg, Michiel Gijsbertus J.; Petersen, Peter Kersten; Nielsen, Mads

2016-01-01

Mammographic risk scoring has commonly been automated by extracting a set of handcrafted features from mammograms, and relating the responses directly or indirectly to breast cancer risk. We present a method that learns a feature hierarchy from unlabeled data. When the learned features are used...... as the input to a simple classifier, two different tasks can be addressed: i) breast density segmentation, and ii) scoring of mammographic texture. The proposed model learns features at multiple scales. To control the models capacity a novel sparsity regularizer is introduced that incorporates both lifetime...... and population sparsity. We evaluated our method on three different clinical datasets. Our state-of-the-art results show that the learned breast density scores have a very strong positive relationship with manual ones, and that the learned texture scores are predictive of breast cancer. The model is easy...

A score to predict short-term risk of COPD exacerbations (SCOPEX

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Make BJ

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Barry J Make,1 Göran Eriksson,2 Peter M Calverley,3 Christine R Jenkins,4 Dirkje S Postma,5 Stefan Peterson,6 Ollie Östlund,7 Antonio Anzueto8 1Division of Pulmonary Sciences and Critical Care Medicine, National Jewish Health, University of Colorado Denver School of Medicine, Denver, CO, USA; 2Department of Respiratory Medicine and Allergology, University Hospital, Lund, Sweden; 3Pulmonary and Rehabilitation Research Group, University Hospital Aintree, Liverpool, UK; 4George Institute for Global Health, The University of Sydney and Concord Clinical School, Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, Sydney, NSW, Australia; 5Department of Pulmonology, University of Groningen and GRIAC Research Institute, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands; 6StatMind AB, Lund, Sweden; 7Department of Medical Sciences and Uppsala Clinical Research Center, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; 8Department of Pulmonary/Critical Care, University of Texas Health Sciences Center and South Texas Veterans Healthcare System, San Antonio, TX, USA Background: There is no clinically useful score to predict chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD exacerbations. We aimed to derive this by analyzing data from three existing COPD clinical trials of budesonide/formoterol, formoterol, or placebo in patients with moderate-to-very-severe COPD and a history of exacerbations in the previous year. Methods: Predictive variables were selected using Cox regression for time to first severe COPD exacerbation. We determined absolute risk estimates for an exacerbation by identifying variables in a binomial model, adjusting for observation time, study, and treatment. The model was further reduced to clinically useful variables and the final regression coefficients scaled to obtain risk scores of 0–100 to predict an exacerbation within 6 months. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves and the corresponding C-index were used to investigate the discriminatory

Clinical study on HAT and SEDAN score scales and related risk factors for predicting hemorrhagic transformation following thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke

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Heng WEI

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Objective To investigate the value of HAT and SEDAN score scales in predicting hemorrhagic transformation (HT following the recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator (rt-PA intravenous thrombolysis in acute ischemic stroke patients and risk factors affecting HT.  Methods A total of 143 patients with acute ischemic stroke underwent rt-PA intravenous thrombolysis within 4.50 h of onset and their clinical data were collected. According to head CT after thrombolysis, patients were divided into HT group (18 cases and non-HT group (125 cases. Single factor analysis was used to assess differences in HAT and SEDAN score scales and related risk factors of ischemic stroke in 2 groups, and further Logistic regression analysis was used to investigate independent predictors of HT. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was used to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of HAT and SEDAN score scales in predicting HT.  Results Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that history of atrial fibrillation (AF, admission systolic blood pressure (SBP, admission blood glucose level, early low density of head CT, thrombolytic time window, National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, HAT and SEDAN scores were all risk factors for HT after thrombolysis (P < 0.05, for all. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that history of AF (OR = 1.677, 95% CI: 1.332-2.111; P = 0.000, admission SBP (OR = 1.102, 95% CI: 1.009-1.204; P = 0.031, admission blood glucose level (OR = 1.870, 95% CI: 1.119-3.125; P = 0.017, thrombolysis time window (OR = 1.030, 95%CI: 1.009-1.052; P = 0.005, NIHSS score (OR = 1.574, 95%CI: 1.186-2.090; P = 0.002, HAT score (OR = 2.515, 95%CI: 1.273-4.970;P = 0.008 and SEDAN score (OR = 2.413, 95%CI: 1.123-5.185; P = 0.024 were risk factors for HT after thrombolysis. ROC curve analysis showed that HAT score could predict HT with 94.40% sensitivity and 41.60% specificity, and area under curve (AUC was 0.70. SEDAN

Risk scores-the modern Oracle of Delphi?

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Kronenberg, Florian; Schwaiger, Johannes P

2017-03-01

Recently, 4 new risk scores for the prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events were especially tailored for hemodialysis patients; these scores performed much better than previous scores. Tripepi et al. found that these risk scores were even more predictive for all-cause and cardiovascular death than the measurement of the left ventricular mass index was. Nevertheless, the investigation of left ventricular mass and function has its own place for other reasons. Copyright © 2016 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Randomized clinical trial of Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score-based management of patients with suspected appendicitis.

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Andersson, M; Kolodziej, B; Andersson, R E

2017-10-01

The role of imaging in the diagnosis of appendicitis is controversial. This prospective interventional study and nested randomized trial analysed the impact of implementing a risk stratification algorithm based on the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score, and compared routine imaging with selective imaging after clinical reassessment. Patients presenting with suspicion of appendicitis between September 2009 and January 2012 from age 10 years were included at 21 emergency surgical centres and from age 5 years at three university paediatric centres. Registration of clinical characteristics, treatments and outcomes started during the baseline period. The AIR score-based algorithm was implemented during the intervention period. Intermediate-risk patients were randomized to routine imaging or selective imaging after clinical reassessment. The baseline period included 1152 patients, and the intervention period 2639, of whom 1068 intermediate-risk patients were randomized. In low-risk patients, use of the AIR score-based algorithm resulted in less imaging (19·2 versus 34·5 per cent; P appendicitis (6·8 versus 9·7 per cent; P = 0·034). Intermediate-risk patients randomized to the imaging and observation groups had the same proportion of negative appendicectomies (6·4 versus 6·7 per cent respectively; P = 0·884), number of admissions, number of perforations and length of hospital stay, but routine imaging was associated with an increased proportion of patients treated for appendicitis (53·4 versus 46·3 per cent; P = 0·020). AIR score-based risk classification can safely reduce the use of diagnostic imaging and hospital admissions in patients with suspicion of appendicitis. Registration number: NCT00971438 ( http://www.clinicaltrials.gov). © 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Two acute kidney injury risk scores for critically ill cancer patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Xing, Xue-Zhong; Wang, Hai-Jun; Huang, Chu-Lin; Yang, Quan-Hui; Qu, Shi-Ning; Zhang, Hao; Wang, Hao; Gao, Yong; Xiao, Qing-Ling; Sun, Ke-Lin

2012-01-01

Several risk scoures have been used in predicting acute kidney injury (AKI) of patients undergoing general or specific operations such as cardiac surgery. This study aimed to evaluate the use of two AKI risk scores in patients who underwent non-cardiac surgery but required intensive care. The clinical data of patients who had been admitted to ICU during the first 24 hours of ICU stay between September 2009 and August 2010 at the Cancer Institute, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences & Peking Union Medical College were retrospectively collected and analyzed. AKI was diagnosed based on the acute kidney injury network (AKIN) criteria. Two AKI risk scores were calculated: Kheterpal and Abelha factors. The incidence of AKI was 10.3%. Patients who developed AKI had a increased ICU mortality of 10.9% vs. 1.0% and an in-hospital mortality of 13.0 vs. 1.5%, compared with those without AKI. There was a significant difference between the classification of Kheterpal's AKI risk scores and the occurrence of AKI (PAbelha's AKI risk scores and the occurrence of AKI (P=0.499). Receiver operating characteristic curves demonstrated an area under the curve of 0.655±0.043 (P=0.001, 95% confidence interval: 0.571-0.739) for Kheterpal's AKI risk score and 0.507±0.044 (P=0.879, 95% confidence interval: 0.422-0.592) for Abelha's AKI risk score. Kheterpal's AKI risk scores are more accurate than Abelha's AKI risk scores in predicting the occurrence of AKI in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery with moderate predictive capability.

Do pressure ulcer risk assessment scales improve clinical practice?

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Jan Kottner

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Jan Kottner1, Katrin Balzer21Department of Nursing Science, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Germany; 2Nursing Research Group, Institute for Social Medicine, Universitätsklinikum Schleswig-Holstein, Lübeck, GermanyAbstract: Standardized assessment instruments are deemed important for estimating pressure ulcer risk. Today, more than 40 so-called pressure ulcer risk assessment scales are available but still there is an ongoing debate about their usefulness. From a measurement point of view pressure ulcer (PU risk assessment scales have serious limitations. Empirical evidence supporting the validity of PU risk assessment scale scores is weak and obtained scores contain varying amounts of measurement error. The concept of pressure ulcer risk is strongly related to the general health status and severity of illness. A clinical impact due do the application of these scales could also not be demonstrated. It is questionable whether completion of standardized pressure ulcer risk scales in clinical practice is really needed.Keywords: Braden pressure ulcer, prevention, risk assessment, nursing assessment, predictive value, clinical effectiveness, review

Use of a clinical sepsis score for predicting bacteremia in neonatal dairy calves on a calf rearing farm.

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Fecteau, G; Paré, J; Van Metre, D C; Smith, B P; Holmberg, C A; Guterbock, W; Jang, S

1997-01-01

In human, equine, and bovine neonates, early diagnosis of bacteremia remains a challenge for the internist. The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model for risk of bacteremia, based on a clinical evaluation system called the clinical sepsis score. Blood from 90 ill calves, 1- to 14-days-old from a calf-raising farm in the San Joaquin Valley of California was cultured. The calves were also scored according to a clinical score for hydration status, fecal appearance, general at...

Value of adding the renal pathological score to the kidney failure risk equation in advanced diabetic nephropathy.

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Masayuki Yamanouchi

Full Text Available There have been a limited number of biopsy-based studies on diabetic nephropathy, and therefore the clinical importance of renal biopsy in patients with diabetes in late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD is still debated. We aimed to clarify the renal prognostic value of pathological information to clinical information in patients with diabetes and advanced CKD.We retrospectively assessed 493 type 2 diabetics with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy in four centers in Japan. 296 patients with stage 3-5 CKD at the time of biopsy were identified and assigned two risk prediction scores for end-stage renal disease (ESRD: the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE, a score composed of clinical parameters and the Diabetic Nephropathy Score (D-score, a score integrated pathological parameters of the Diabetic Nephropathy Classification by the Renal Pathology Society (RPS DN Classification. They were randomized 2:1 to development and validation cohort. Hazard Ratios (HR of incident ESRD were reported with 95% confidence interval (CI of the KFRE, D-score and KFRE+D-score in Cox regression model. Improvement of risk prediction with the addition of D-score to the KFRE was assessed using c-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI, and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI.During median follow-up of 1.9 years, 194 patients developed ESRD. The cox regression analysis showed that the KFRE,D-score and KFRE+D-score were significant predictors of ESRD both in the development cohort and in the validation cohort. The c-statistics of the D-score was 0.67. The c-statistics of the KFRE was good, but its predictive value was weaker than that in the miscellaneous CKD cohort originally reported (c-statistics, 0.78 vs. 0.90 and was not significantly improved by adding the D-score (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = 0.83. Only continuous NRI was positive after adding the D-score to the KFRE (0.4%; CI: 0.0-0.8%.We found that the predict values of the KFRE and the D-score

Value of adding the renal pathological score to the kidney failure risk equation in advanced diabetic nephropathy.

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Yamanouchi, Masayuki; Hoshino, Junichi; Ubara, Yoshifumi; Takaichi, Kenmei; Kinowaki, Keiichi; Fujii, Takeshi; Ohashi, Kenichi; Mise, Koki; Toyama, Tadashi; Hara, Akinori; Kitagawa, Kiyoki; Shimizu, Miho; Furuichi, Kengo; Wada, Takashi

2018-01-01

There have been a limited number of biopsy-based studies on diabetic nephropathy, and therefore the clinical importance of renal biopsy in patients with diabetes in late-stage chronic kidney disease (CKD) is still debated. We aimed to clarify the renal prognostic value of pathological information to clinical information in patients with diabetes and advanced CKD. We retrospectively assessed 493 type 2 diabetics with biopsy-proven diabetic nephropathy in four centers in Japan. 296 patients with stage 3-5 CKD at the time of biopsy were identified and assigned two risk prediction scores for end-stage renal disease (ESRD): the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE, a score composed of clinical parameters) and the Diabetic Nephropathy Score (D-score, a score integrated pathological parameters of the Diabetic Nephropathy Classification by the Renal Pathology Society (RPS DN Classification)). They were randomized 2:1 to development and validation cohort. Hazard Ratios (HR) of incident ESRD were reported with 95% confidence interval (CI) of the KFRE, D-score and KFRE+D-score in Cox regression model. Improvement of risk prediction with the addition of D-score to the KFRE was assessed using c-statistics, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). During median follow-up of 1.9 years, 194 patients developed ESRD. The cox regression analysis showed that the KFRE,D-score and KFRE+D-score were significant predictors of ESRD both in the development cohort and in the validation cohort. The c-statistics of the D-score was 0.67. The c-statistics of the KFRE was good, but its predictive value was weaker than that in the miscellaneous CKD cohort originally reported (c-statistics, 0.78 vs. 0.90) and was not significantly improved by adding the D-score (0.78 vs. 0.79, p = 0.83). Only continuous NRI was positive after adding the D-score to the KFRE (0.4%; CI: 0.0-0.8%). We found that the predict values of the KFRE and the D-score were

Data on coronary artery calcium score performance and cardiovascular risk reclassification across gender and ethnicities

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Marat Fudim

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The current guidelines recommend the new risk score, Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease score (ASCVD, to assess an individual׳s risk of future cardiovascular disease (CVD events. No data exist on the predictive utility of ASCVD score with the incremental value of coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS across ethnicities and gender. Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA is a population based study (n=6814 of White (38%, Black (28%, Chinese (22% and Hispanic (12% subjects, aged 45–84 years, free from clinical cardiovascular disease. We performed a post-hoc analysis of 6742 participants (mean age 62, 53% female from the MESA cohort. We evaluated the predictive accuracy for the ASCVD score for each participant in accord with the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines using pooled cohort equations. Similar to the publication by Fudim et al. “The Metabolic Syndrome, Coronary Artery Calcium Score and Cardiovascular Risk Reclassification” [1] the analytic properties of models incorporating the ASCVD score with and without CACS were compared for cardiovascular disease CVD prediction. Here the analysis focused on ASCVD score (with and without CACS performance across gender and ethnicities. Keywords: Risk stratification, Coronary calcium scoring, Gender, Ethnicity, MESA, {C}{C}

Incremental value of a genetic risk score for the prediction of new vascular events in patients with clinically manifest vascular disease.

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Weijmans, Maaike; de Bakker, Paul I W; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Algra, Ale; Jan de Borst, Gert; Spiering, Wilko; Visseren, Frank L J

2015-04-01

Several genetic markers are related to incidence of cardiovascular events. We evaluated whether a genetic risk score (GRS) based on 30 single-nucleotide-polymorphisms associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) can improve prediction of 10-year risk of new cardiovascular events in patients with clinical manifest vascular disease. In 5742 patients with symptomatic vascular disease enrolled in the SMART study, we developed Cox regression models based on the SMART Risk Score (SRS) and based on the SRS plus the GRS in all patients, in patients with a history of acute arterial thrombotic events and in patients with a history of more stable atherosclerosis and without CAD. The discriminatory ability was expressed by the c-statistic. Model calibration was evaluated by calibration plots. The incremental value of adding the GRS was assessed by net reclassification index (NRI) and decision curve analysis. During a median follow-up of 6.5 years (IQR4.0-9.5), the composite outcome of myocardial infarction, stroke, or vascular death occurred in 933 patients. Hazard ratios of GRS ranging from 0.86 to 1.35 were observed. The discriminatory capacity of the SRS for prediction of 10-year risk of cardiovascular events was fairly good (c-statistic 0.70, 95%CI 0.68-0.72), similar to the model based on the SRS plus the GRS. Calibration of the models based on SRS and SRS plus GRS was adequate. No increase in c-statistics, categorical NRIs and decision curves was observed when adding the GRS. The continuous NRI improved only in patients with stable atherosclerosis (0.14, 95%CI 0.03-0.25), increasing further excluding patients with a history of CAD (0.21, 95%CI 0.06-0.36). In patients with symptomatic vascular disease, a GRS did not improve risk prediction of 10-year risk of cardiovascular events beyond clinical characteristics. The GRS might improve risk prediction of first vascular events in the subgroup of patients with a history of stable atherosclerosis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier

Relation of the aortic stiffness with the GRACE risk score in patients with the non ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction.

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Omer, Gedikli; Gokhan, Aksan; Adem, Uzun; Sabri, Demircan; Korhan, Soylu

2014-01-01

Current guidelines recommend clinical risk scoring systems for the patients diagnosed and determinated treatment strategy with in Non-ST-elevation elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI). Previous studies demonstrated association between aortic elasticity properties, stiffness and severity CAD. However, the associations between Aortic stiffness, elasticity properties and clinical risk scores have not been investigated. In the present study we have evaluated the relation between the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and aortic stiffness in patients with NSTEMI. We prospectively analyzed 87 consecutive patients with NSTEMI. Aortic elastic parameter and stiffness parameter were calculated from the echocardiographically derived thoracic aortic diameters (mm/m(2)), and the measurement of pulse pressure obtained by cuff sphygmomanometry. We have categorized the patients in to two groups as low ((n = 45) (GRACE risk score ≤ 140)) and high ((n = 42) (GRACE risk score > 140)) risk group according to GRACE risk score and compare the both groups. Table 1 shows baseline characteristics of patients. Our study showed that Aortic strain was significantly low (3.5 ± 1.4, 7.9 ± 2.3 respectively, p < 0.001) and aortic stiffness index was significantly high (3.9 ± 0.38; 3 ± 0.35, respectively, p < 0.001) in the high risk group values compared to those with low risk group. The aortic stiffness index was the only independent predictor of GRACE risk score (OR: 119.390; 95% CI: 2.925-4872.8; p = 0.011) in multivariate analysis. We found a significant correlation between aortic stiffness, impaired elasticity and GRACE risk score. Aortic stiffness index was the only independent variable of the high GRACE risk score. The inclusion of aortic stiffness into the GRACE risk score could allow improved risk classification of patients with ACS at admission and this may be important in the diagnosis, follow up and treatment of the patients.

Clinical risk assessment in intensive care unit

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Saeed Asefzadeh

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Clinical risk management focuses on improving the quality and safety of health care services by identifying the circumstances and opportunities that put patients at risk of harm and acting to prevent or control those risks. The goal of this study is to identify and assess the failure modes in the ICU of Qazvin′s Social Security Hospital (Razi Hospital through Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA. Methods: This was a qualitative-quantitative research by Focus Discussion Group (FDG performed in Qazvin Province, Iran during 2011. The study population included all individuals and owners who are familiar with the process in ICU. Sampling method was purposeful and the FDG group members were selected by the researcher. The research instrument was standard worksheet that has been used by several researchers. Data was analyzed by FMEA technique. Results: Forty eight clinical errors and failure modes identified, results showed that the highest risk probability number (RPN was in respiratory care "Ventilator′s alarm malfunction (no alarm" with the score 288, and the lowest was in gastrointestinal "not washing the NG-Tube" with the score 8. Conclusions: Many of the identified errors can be prevented by group members. Clinical risk assessment and management is the key to delivery of effective health care.

The fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX® score in subclinical hyperthyroidism

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Polovina Snežana

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX® score is the 10-year estimated risk calculation tool for bone fracture that includes clinical data and hip bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to elucidate the ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and post-menopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism. Methods. The bone mineral density (by DXA, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH level, free thyroxine (fT4 level, thyroid peroxidase antibodies (TPOAb titre, osteocalcin and beta-cross-laps were measured in 27 pre- and post-menopausal women with newly discovered subclinical hyperthyroidism [age 58.85 ± 7.83 years, body mass index (BMI 27.89 ± 3.46 kg/m2, menopause onset in 46.88 ± 10.21 years] and 51 matched euthyroid controls (age 59.69 ± 5.72 years, BMI 27.68 ± 4.66 kg/m2, menopause onset in 48.53 ± 4.58 years. The etiology of subclinical hyperthyroisims was autoimmune thyroid disease or toxic goiter. FRAX® score calculation was performed in both groups. Results. In the group with subclinical hyperthyroidism the main FRAX® score was significantly higher than in the controls (6.50 ± 1.58 vs 4.35 ± 1.56 respectively; p = 0.015. The FRAX® score for hip was also higher in the evaluated group than in the controls (1.33 ± 3.92 vs 0.50 ± 0.46 respectively; p = 0.022. There was no correlations between low TSH and fracture risk (p > 0.05. The ability of the FRAX® score in discriminating between bone fracture positive and negative pre- and postmenopausal female subjects (p < 0.001 is presented by the area under the curve (AUC plotted via ROC analysis. The determined FRAX score cut-off value by this analysis was 6%, with estimated sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 75.9%, respectively. Conclusion. Pre- and postmenopausal women with subclinical hyperthyroidism have higher FRAX® scores and thus

Accuracy, calibration and clinical performance of the EuroSCORE: can we reduce the number of variables?

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Ranucci, Marco; Castelvecchio, Serenella; Menicanti, Lorenzo; Frigiola, Alessandro; Pelissero, Gabriele

2010-03-01

The European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) is currently used in many institutions and is considered a reference tool in many countries. We hypothesised that too many variables were included in the EuroSCORE using limited patient series. We tested different models using a limited number of variables. A total of 11150 adult patients undergoing cardiac operations at our institution (2001-2007) were retrospectively analysed. The 17 risk factors composing the EuroSCORE were separately analysed and ranked for accuracy of prediction of hospital mortality. Seventeen models were created by progressively including one factor at a time. The models were compared for accuracy with a receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis and area under the curve (AUC) evaluation. Calibration was tested with Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics. Clinical performance was assessed by comparing the predicted with the observed mortality rates. The best accuracy (AUC 0.76) was obtained using a model including only age, left ventricular ejection fraction, serum creatinine, emergency operation and non-isolated coronary operation. The EuroSCORE AUC (0.75) was not significantly different. Calibration and clinical performance were better in the five-factor model than in the EuroSCORE. Only in high-risk patients were 12 factors needed to achieve a good performance. Including many factors in multivariable logistic models increases the risk for overfitting, multicollinearity and human error. A five-factor model offers the same level of accuracy but demonstrated better calibration and clinical performance. Models with a limited number of factors may work better than complex models when applied to a limited number of patients. Copyright (c) 2009 European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A clinical severity scoring system for visceral leishmaniasis in immunocompetent patients in South Sudan.

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Suzette S Kämink

2017-10-01

Full Text Available South Sudan is one of the most endemic countries for visceral leishmaniasis (VL, and is frequently affected by large epidemics. In resource-limited settings, clinicians require a simple clinical tool to identify VL patients who are at increased risk of dying, and who need specialised treatment with liposomal amphotericin B and other supportive care. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a clinical severity scoring system based on risk factors for death in VL patients in South Sudan.A retrospective analysis was conducted of data from a cohort of 6,633 VL patients who were treated in the Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF hospital in Lankien between July 2013 and June 2015. Risk factors for death during treatment were identified using multivariable logistic regression models, and the regression coefficients were used to develop a severity scoring system. Sensitivity and specificity of score cut-offs were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC analysis.In multivariable models, risk factors for death in adult VL patients were: anaemia (odds ratio (OR 4.46 (95% CI 1.58-12.6 for Hb <6g/dL compared with ≥9g/dL, nutritional status (OR 4.84 (2.09-11.2 for BMI <13 kg/m2 compared with ≥16 kg/m2, weakness (OR 4.20 (1.82-9.73 for collapsed compared with normal weakness, jaundice (OR 3.41 (1.17-9.95, and oedema/ascites (OR 4.86 (1.67-14.1. For children and adolescents the risk factors were: age (OR 10.7 (6.3-18.3 for age <2 years compared with 6-18 years, anaemia (OR 7.76 (4.15-14.5 for Hb <6g/dL compared with ≥9g/dL, weakness (OR 3.13 (22.8-105.2 for collapsed compared with normal weakness, and jaundice (OR 12.8 (4.06-40.2. Severity scoring predictive ability was 74.4% in adults and 83.4% in children and adolescents.Our evidenced-based severity scoring system demonstrated sufficient predictive ability to be operationalised as a clinical tool for rational allocation of treatment to VL patients at MSF centres in South Sudan.

The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment Score (PANDORA: Development of a Simple Predictive Risk Score for 30-Day In-Hospital Mortality Based on Demographics, Clinical Observation, and Nutrition.

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Michael Hiesmayr

Full Text Available To develop a simple scoring system to predict 30 day in-hospital mortality of in-patients excluding those from intensive care units based on easily obtainable demographic, disease and nutrition related patient data.Score development with general estimation equation methodology and model selection by P-value thresholding based on a cross-sectional sample of 52 risk indicators with 123 item classes collected with questionnaires and stored in an multilingual online database.Worldwide prospective cross-sectional cohort with 30 day in-hospital mortality from the nutritionDay 2006-2009 and an external validation sample from 2012.We included 43894 patients from 2480 units in 32 countries. 1631(3.72% patients died within 30 days in hospital. The Patient- And Nutrition-Derived Outcome Risk Assessment (PANDORA score predicts 30-day hospital mortality based on 7 indicators with 31 item classes on a scale from 0 to 75 points. The indicators are age (0 to 17 points, nutrient intake on nutritionDay (0 to 12 points, mobility (0 to 11 points, fluid status (0 to 10 points, BMI (0 to 9 points, cancer (9 points and main patient group (0 to 7 points. An appropriate model fit has been achieved. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for mortality prediction was 0.82 in the development sample and 0.79 in the external validation sample.The PANDORA score is a simple, robust scoring system for a general population of hospitalised patients to be used for risk stratification and benchmarking.

The Prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and the Framingham Risk Score in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Intervention Over the Last 17 Years by Gender: Time-trend Analysis From the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry

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Moo-Sik Lee

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives: This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI patients at the Mayo Clinic. Methods: We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Results: Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Conclusions: Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends.

Examiner Reliability of Fluorosis Scoring: A Comparison of Photographic and Clinical Examination Findings

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Cruz-Orcutt, Noemi; Warren, John J.; Broffitt, Barbara; Levy, Steven M.; Weber-Gasparoni, Karin

2012-01-01

Objective To assess and compare examiner reliability of clinical and photographic fluorosis examinations using the Fluorosis Risk Index (FRI) among children in the Iowa Fluoride Study (IFS). Methods The IFS examined 538 children for fluorosis and dental caries at age 13 and obtained intra-oral photographs from nearly all of them. To assess examiner reliability, duplicate clinical examinations were conducted for 40 of the subjects. In addition, 200 of the photographs were scored independently for fluorosis by two examiners in a standardized manner. Fluorosis data were compared between examiners for the clinical exams and separately for the photographic exams, and a comparison was made between clinical and photographic exams. For all 3 comparisons, examiner reliability was assessed using kappa statistics at the tooth level. Results Inter-examiner reliability for the duplicate clinical exams on the sample of 40 subjects as measured by kappa was 0.59, while the repeat exams of the 200 photographs yielded a kappa of 0.64. For the comparison of photographic and clinical exams, inter-examiner reliability, as measured by weighted kappa, was 0.46. FRI scores obtained using the photographs were higher on average than those obtained from the clinical exams. Fluorosis prevalence was higher for photographs (33%) than found for clinical exam (18%). Conclusion Results suggest inter-examiner reliability is greater and fluorosis scores higher when using photographic compared to clinical examinations. PMID:22316120

C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, clinical pulmonary infection score, and pneumonia severity scores in nursing home acquired pneumonia.

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Porfyridis, Ilias; Georgiadis, Georgios; Vogazianos, Paris; Mitis, Georgios; Georgiou, Andreas

2014-04-01

Patients with nursing home acquired pneumonia (NHAP) present a distinct group of lower respiratory track infections with different risk factors, clinical presentation, and mortality rates. To evaluate the diagnostic value of clinical pulmonary infection score (CPIS), C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin and to compare the accuracy of pneumonia severity scores (confusion, urea nitrogen, breathing frequency, blood pressure, ≥ 65 y of age [CURB-65]; pneumonia severity index; NHAP index; systolic blood pressure, multilobar involvement, albumin, breathing frequency, tachycardia, confusion, oxygen, arterial pH [SMART-COP]; and systolic blood pressure, oxygen, age > 65 y, breathing frequency [SOAR]) in predicting in-patient mortality from NHAP. Nursing home residents admitted to the hospital with acute respiratory illness were enrolled in the study. Subjects were classified as having NHAP (Group A) or other pulmonary disorders (Group B). Clinical, imaging, and laboratory data were assessed to compute CPIS and severity scores. C-reactive protein and procalcitonin were measured by immunonephelometry and immunoassay, respectively. Fifty-eight subjects were diagnosed with NHAP (Group A) and 29 with other pulmonary disorders (Group B). The mean C-reactive protein ± SD was 16.38 ± 8.6 mg/dL in Group A and 5.2 ± 5.6 mg/dL in Group B (P 1.1 ng/mL was an independent predictor of in-patient mortality. Of the pneumonia severity scores, CURB-65 showed greater accuracy in predicting in-patient mortality (area under the curve of 0.68, 95% CI 0.53-0.84, P = .06). CPIS, procalcitonin, and C-reactive protein are reliable for the diagnosis of NHAP. Procalcitonin and CURB-65 are accurate in predicting in-patient mortality in NHAP.

Is there a role for coronary artery calcium scoring for management of asymptomatic patients at risk for coronary artery disease?: Clinical risk scores are not sufficient to define primary prevention treatment strategies among asymptomatic patients.

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Blaha, Michael J; Silverman, Michael G; Budoff, Matthew J

2014-03-01

Although risk factors have proven to be useful therapeutic targets, they are poor predictors of risk. Traditional risk scores are moderately successful in predicting future CHD events and can be a starting place for general risk categorization. However, there is substantial heterogeneity between traditional risk and actual atherosclerosis burden, with event rates predominantly driven by burden of atherosclerosis. Serum biomarkers have yet to show any clinically significant incremental value to the FRS and even when combined cannot match the predictive value of atherosclerosis imaging. As clinicians, are we willing to base therapy decisions on risk models that lack optimum-achievable accuracy and limit personalization? The decision to treat a patient in primary prevention must be a careful one because the benefit of therapy in an asymptomatic patient must clearly outweigh the potential risk. CAC, in particular, provides a personalized assessment of risk and may identify patients who will be expected to derive the most, and the least, net absolute benefit from treatment. Emerging evidence hints that CAC may also promote long-term adherence to aspirin, exercise, diet, and statin therapy. When potentially lifelong treatment decisions are on the line, clinicians must arm their patients with the most accurate risk prediction tools, and subclinical atherosclerosis testing with CAC is, at the present time, superior to any combination of risk factors and serum biomarkers.

Comparison of the 2MACE and TIMI-AF Scores for Composite Clinical Outcomes in Anticoagulated Atrial Fibrillation Patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pastori, Daniele; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: Two risk scores have been developed to predict composite outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF): the 2MACE and TIMI-AF scores. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive ability of these scores in 2 separate warfarin-treated cohorts (one 'real world', one clinical trial) of AF...... patients.Methods and Results:The 2MACE and TIMI-AF scores were calculated in the 'real-world' ATHERO-AF cohort (n=907), and in the randomized controlled AMADEUS trial (n=2,265). Endpoints were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), net clinical outcomes (NCO) and a combination of them, namely...... showed that the 2MACE and TIMI-AF scores had modest but significant predictive ability for composite outcomes in AF. The clinical usefulness of both scores was similar, but the 2MACE score may be simpler and easy to use....

Clinical impact and risk stratification of balloon angioplasty for femoropopliteal disease in nitinol stenting era: Retrospective multicenter study using propensity score matching analysis

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Taketsugu Tsuchiya

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Objective: Nitinol stenting could bring the better outcome in endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease. However, it might be expected that recent marked advances in both device technology and operator technique had led to improved efficacy of balloon angioplasty even in this segment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the clinical impact of balloon angioplasty for femoropopliteal disease and make risk stratification clear by propensity score matching analysis. Methods: Based on the multicenter retrospective data, 2758 patients (balloon angioplasty: 729 patients and nitinol stenting: 2029 patients, those who underwent endovascular therapy for femoropopliteal disease, were analyzed. Results: The propensity score matching procedure extracted a total of 572 cases per group, and the primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups after matching was significantly the same (77.2% vs 82.7% at 1 year; 62.2% vs 64.3% at 3 years; 47.8% vs 54.3% at 5 years. In multivariate Cox hazard regression analysis, significant predictors for primary patency were diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, cilostazol use, chronic total occlusion, and intra-vascular ultra-sonography use. The strategy of balloon angioplasty was not evaluated as a significant predictor for the primary patency. After risk stratification using five items (diabetes mellitus, regular dialysis, no use of intra-vascular ultra-sonography, chronic total occlusion, and no use of cilostazol: the DDICC score, the estimated primary patency rates of each group (low, DDICC score 0–2; moderate, DDICC score 3; high risk, DDICC score 4–5 were 88.6%, 78.3%, and 63.5% at 1 year; 75.2%, 60.7%, and 39.8% at 3 years; and 66.0%, 47.1%, and 26.3% at 5 years (p < 0.0001. The primary patency rate of balloon angioplasty and nitinol stenting groups was significantly the same in each risk stratification. Conclusion: This study suggests that balloon angioplasty does

The Veterans Affairs Cardiac Risk Score: Recalibrating the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Score for Applied Use.

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Sussman, Jeremy B; Wiitala, Wyndy L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Hofer, Timothy P; Bentley, Douglas; Hayward, Rodney A

2017-09-01

Accurately estimating cardiovascular risk is fundamental to good decision-making in cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but risk scores developed in one population often perform poorly in dissimilar populations. We sought to examine whether a large integrated health system can use their electronic health data to better predict individual patients' risk of developing CVD. We created a cohort using all patients ages 45-80 who used Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) ambulatory care services in 2006 with no history of CVD, heart failure, or loop diuretics. Our outcome variable was new-onset CVD in 2007-2011. We then developed a series of recalibrated scores, including a fully refit "VA Risk Score-CVD (VARS-CVD)." We tested the different scores using standard measures of prediction quality. For the 1,512,092 patients in the study, the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score had similar discrimination as the VARS-CVD (c-statistic of 0.66 in men and 0.73 in women), but the Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease model had poor calibration, predicting 63% more events than observed. Calibration was excellent in the fully recalibrated VARS-CVD tool, but simpler techniques tested proved less reliable. We found that local electronic health record data can be used to estimate CVD better than an established risk score based on research populations. Recalibration improved estimates dramatically, and the type of recalibration was important. Such tools can also easily be integrated into health system's electronic health record and can be more readily updated.

Major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage risk prediction in patients with atrial fibrillation: Attention to modifiable bleeding risk factors or use of a bleeding risk stratification score? A nationwide cohort study.

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Chao, Tze-Fan; Lip, Gregory Y H; Lin, Yenn-Jiang; Chang, Shih-Lin; Lo, Li-Wei; Hu, Yu-Feng; Tuan, Ta-Chuan; Liao, Jo-Nan; Chung, Fa-Po; Chen, Tzeng-Ji; Chen, Shih-Ann

2018-03-01

While modifiable bleeding risks should be addressed in all patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), use of a bleeding risk score enables clinicians to 'flag up' those at risk of bleeding for more regular patient contact reviews. We compared a risk assessment strategy for major bleeding and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) based on modifiable bleeding risk factors (referred to as a 'MBR factors' score) against established bleeding risk stratification scores (HEMORR 2 HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, ORBIT). A nationwide cohort study of 40,450 AF patients who received warfarin for stroke prevention was performed. The clinical endpoints included ICH and major bleeding. Bleeding scores were compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves (areas under the ROC curves [AUCs], or c-index) and the net reclassification index (NRI). During a follow up of 4.60±3.62years, 1581 (3.91%) patients sustained ICH and 6889 (17.03%) patients sustained major bleeding events. All tested bleeding risk scores at baseline were higher in those sustaining major bleeds. When compared to no ICH, patients sustaining ICH had higher baseline HEMORR 2 HAGES (p=0.003), HAS-BLED (pbleeding scores, c-indexes were significantly higher compared to MBR factors (pbleeding. C-indexes for the MBR factors score was significantly lower compared to all other scores (De long test, all pbleeding risk scores for major bleeding (all pbleeding risk scores had modest predictive value for predicting major bleeding but the best predictive value and NRI was found for the HAS-BLED score. Simply depending on modifiable bleeding risk factors had suboptimal predictive value for the prediction of major bleeding in AF patients, when compared to the HAS-BLED score. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic Risk Score Modelling for Disease Progression in New-Onset Type 1 Diabetes Patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brorsson, Caroline A; Nielsen, Lotte B; Andersen, Marie-Louise

2016-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified over 40 type 1 diabetes risk loci. The clinical impact of these loci on β-cell function during disease progression is unknown. We aimed at testing whether a genetic risk score could predict glycemic control and residual β-cell function in type...... 1 diabetes (T1D). As gene expression may represent an intermediate phenotype between genetic variation and disease, we hypothesized that genes within T1D loci which are expressed in islets and transcriptionally regulated by proinflammatory cytokines would be the best predictors of disease...... constructed a genetic risk score based on the cumulative number of risk alleles carried in children with newly diagnosed T1D. With each additional risk allele carried, HbA1c levels increased significantly within first year after diagnosis. Network and gene ontology (GO) analyses revealed that several...

Risk-Assessment Score and Patient Optimization as Cost Predictors for Ventral Hernia Repair.

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Saleh, Sherif; Plymale, Margaret A; Davenport, Daniel L; Roth, John Scott

2018-04-01

Ventral hernia repair (VHR) is associated with complications that significantly increase healthcare costs. This study explores the associations between hospital costs for VHR and surgical complication risk-assessment scores, need for cardiac or pulmonary evaluation, and smoking or obesity counseling. An IRB-approved retrospective study of patients having undergone open VHR over 3 years was performed. Ventral Hernia Risk Score (VHRS) for surgical site occurrence and surgical site infection, and the Ventral Hernia Working Group grade were calculated for each case. Also recorded were preoperative cardiology or pulmonary evaluations, smoking cessation and weight reduction counseling, and patient goal achievement. Hospital costs were obtained from the cost accounting system for the VHR hospitalization stratified by major clinical cost drivers. Univariate regression analyses were used to compare the predictive power of the risk scores. Multivariable analysis was performed to develop a cost prediction model. The mean cost of index VHR hospitalization was $20,700. Total and operating room costs correlated with increasing CDC wound class, VHRS surgical site infection score, VHRS surgical site occurrence score, American Society of Anesthesiologists class, and Ventral Hernia Working Group (all p variance in costs (p optimization significantly reduced direct and operating room costs (p < 0.05). Cardiac evaluation was associated with increased costs. Ventral hernia repair hospital costs are more accurately predicted by CDC wound class than VHR risk scores. A straightforward 6-factor model predicted most cost variation for VHR. Copyright © 2018 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparing Bleeding Risk Assessment Focused on Modifiable Risk Factors Only Versus Validated Bleeding Risk Scores in Atrial Fibrillation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Yutao; Zhu, Hang; Chen, Yundai

2018-01-01

BACKGROUNDThere is uncertainty whether a focus on modifiable bleeding risk factors offers better prediction of major bleeding than other existing bleeding risk scores.METHODSThis study compared a score based on numbers of the modifiable bleeding risk factors recommended in the 2016 European...... guidelines ("European risk score") versus other published bleeding risk scores that have been derived and validated in atrial fibrillation subjects (HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA, and ORBIT) in a large hospital-based cohort of Chinese inpatients with atrial fibrillation.RESULTSThe European score had modest...... predictive ability for major bleeding (c-index 0.63, 95% confidence interval 0.56-0.69) and intracranial hemorrhage (0.72, 0.65-0.79) but nonsignificantly (and poorly) predicted extracranial bleeding (0.55, 0.54-0.56; P = .361). The HAS-BLED score was superior to predict bleeding events compared...

Comparison of risk scoring systems for patients presenting with upper gastrointestinal bleeding: international multicentre prospective study.

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Stanley, Adrian J; Laine, Loren; Dalton, Harry R; Ngu, Jing H; Schultz, Michael; Abazi, Roseta; Zakko, Liam; Thornton, Susan; Wilkinson, Kelly; Khor, Cristopher J L; Murray, Iain A; Laursen, Stig B

2017-01-04

 To compare the predictive accuracy and clinical utility of five risk scoring systems in the assessment of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  International multicentre prospective study.  Six large hospitals in Europe, North America, Asia, and Oceania.  3012 consecutive patients presenting over 12 months with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.  Comparison of pre-endoscopy scores (admission Rockall, AIMS65, and Glasgow Blatchford) and post-endoscopy scores (full Rockall and PNED) for their ability to predict predefined clinical endpoints: a composite endpoint (transfusion, endoscopic treatment, interventional radiology, surgery, or 30 day mortality), endoscopic treatment, 30 day mortality, rebleeding, and length of hospital stay. Optimum score thresholds to identify low risk and high risk patients were determined.  The Glasgow Blatchford score was best (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) 0.86) at predicting intervention or death compared with the full Rockall score (0.70), PNED score (0.69), admission Rockall score (0.66, and AIMS65 score (0.68) (all P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≤1 was the optimum threshold to predict survival without intervention (sensitivity 98.6%, specificity 34.6%). The Glasgow Blatchford score was better at predicting endoscopic treatment (AUROC 0.75) than the AIMS65 (0.62) and admission Rockall scores (0.61) (both P<0.001). A Glasgow Blatchford score of ≥7 was the optimum threshold to predict endoscopic treatment (sensitivity 80%, specificity 57%). The PNED (AUROC 0.77) and AIMS65 scores (0.77) were best at predicting mortality, with both superior to admission Rockall score (0.72) and Glasgow Blatchford score (0.64; P<0.001). Score thresholds of ≥4 for PNED, ≥2 for AIMS65, ≥4 for admission Rockall, and ≥5 for full Rockall were optimal at predicting death, with sensitivities of 65.8-78.6% and specificities of 65.0-65.3%. No score was helpful at predicting rebleeding or length

The HAT Score-A Simple Risk Stratification Score for Coagulopathic Bleeding During Adult Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation.

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Lonergan, Terence; Herr, Daniel; Kon, Zachary; Menaker, Jay; Rector, Raymond; Tanaka, Kenichi; Mazzeffi, Michael

2017-06-01

The study objective was to create an adult extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) coagulopathic bleeding risk score. Secondary analysis was performed on an existing retrospective cohort. Pre-ECMO variables were tested for association with coagulopathic bleeding, and those with the strongest association were included in a multivariable model. Using this model, a risk stratification score was created. The score's utility was validated by comparing bleeding and transfusion rates between score levels. Bleeding also was examined after stratifying by nadir platelet count and overanticoagulation. Predictive power of the score was compared against the risk score for major bleeding during anti-coagulation for atrial fibrillation (HAS-BLED). Tertiary care academic medical center. The study comprised patients who received venoarterial or venovenous ECMO over a 3-year period, excluding those with an identified source of surgical bleeding during exploration. None. Fifty-three (47.3%) of 112 patients experienced coagulopathic bleeding. A 3-variable score-hypertension, age greater than 65, and ECMO type (HAT)-had fair predictive value (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = 0.66) and was superior to HAS-BLED (AUC = 0.64). As the HAT score increased from 0 to 3, bleeding rates also increased as follows: 30.8%, 48.7%, 63.0%, and 71.4%, respectively. Platelet and fresh frozen plasma transfusion tended to increase with the HAT score, but red blood cell transfusion did not. Nadir platelet count less than 50×10 3 /µL and overanticoagulation during ECMO increased the AUC for the model to 0.73, suggesting additive risk. The HAT score may allow for bleeding risk stratification in adult ECMO patients. Future studies in larger cohorts are necessary to confirm these findings. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Functional Movement Screen: Pain versus composite score and injury risk.

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Alemany, Joseph A; Bushman, Timothy T; Grier, Tyson; Anderson, Morgan K; Canham-Chervak, Michelle; North, William J; Jones, Bruce H

2017-11-01

The Functional Movement Screen (FMS™) has been used as a screening tool to determine musculoskeletal injury risk using composite scores based on movement quality and/or pain. However, no direct comparisons between movement quality and pain have been quantified. Retrospective injury data analysis. Male Soldiers (n=2154, 25.0±1.3years; 26.2±.7kg/m 2 ) completed the FMS (scored from 0 points (pain) to 3 points (no pain and perfect movement quality)) with injury data over the following six months. The FMS is seven movements. Injury data were collected six months after FMS completion. Sensitivity, specificity, receiver operator characteristics and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for pain occurrence and low (≤14 points) composite score. Risk, risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for injury risk. Pain was associated with slightly higher injury risk (RR=1.62) than a composite score of ≤14 points (RR=1.58). When comparing injury risk between those who scored a 1, 2 or 3 on each individual movement, no differences were found (except deep squat). However, Soldiers who experienced pain on any movement had a greater injury risk than those who scored 3 points for that movement (pmovements in which pain occurrence increased, so did injury risk (p<0.01). Pain occurrence may be a stronger indicator of injury risk than a low composite score and provides a simpler method of evaluating injury risk compared to the full FMS. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Beyond Statistics: The Economic Content of Risk Scores

Science.gov (United States)

Einav, Liran; Finkelstein, Amy; Kluender, Raymond

2016-01-01

“Big data” and statistical techniques to score potential transactions have transformed insurance and credit markets. In this paper, we observe that these widely-used statistical scores summarize a much richer heterogeneity, and may be endogenous to the context in which they get applied. We demonstrate this point empirically using data from Medicare Part D, showing that risk scores confound underlying health and endogenous spending response to insurance. We then illustrate theoretically that when individuals have heterogeneous behavioral responses to contracts, strategic incentives for cream skimming can still exist, even in the presence of “perfect” risk scoring under a given contract. PMID:27429712

MODELING CREDIT RISK THROUGH CREDIT SCORING

OpenAIRE

Adrian Cantemir CALIN; Oana Cristina POPOVICI

2014-01-01

Credit risk governs all financial transactions and it is defined as the risk of suffering a loss due to certain shifts in the credit quality of a counterpart. Credit risk literature gravitates around two main modeling approaches: the structural approach and the reduced form approach. In addition to these perspectives, credit risk assessment has been conducted through a series of techniques such as credit scoring models, which form the traditional approach. This paper examines the evolution of...

Use of ABCD2 risk scoring system to determine the short-term stroke risk in patients presenting to emergency department with transient ischaemic attack

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozpolat, C.; Denizbasi, A.; Onur, O.; Eroglu, S.E.

2013-01-01

Objective: To determine the 3-day stroke risk of patients presenting to emergency department with transient ischaemic attack, and to evaluate the predictive value of ABCD2 (Age, Blood pressure, Clinical features, Duration of symptoms and Diabetes) score for these patients. Methods: The prospective study was conducted on patients with diagnosis of transient ischaemic attack who were divided into low (0-3 points), medium (4-5 points) and high (6-7 points) risk groups according to their ABCD2 scores. The sensitivity of the scoring system on estimation of the risk of stroke in 3 days was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic curve. SPSS 15 was used for data analysis. Results: Of the 64 patients in the study, none of the low-risk group had stroke. Stroke was present in 4 of 33 (12.12%) medium-risk patients, while there were 4 in 18 (22.22%) in the high-risk group. Sensitivity and specificity of each ABCD2 score for 3rd day stroke risk was calculated. In the receiver operating curve generated by these calculations, the c statistics was determined as 0.76 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.86; p<0.01) and the most appropriate cut-off score to dichotomise the study group was determined as 4. Conclusions: In transient ischaemic attack patients with an ABCD2 score of four or higher had a markedly increased short-term stroke risk, while those with a lower score were quite safe. It is appropriate to hospitalise patients with a score of four or more and investigate for underlying cause and initiate treatment. (author)

Risk Factors and Clinical Outcomes in Preterm Infants with Pulmonary Hypertension.

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Joseph M Collaco

Full Text Available Pulmonary hypertension (PH is a significant cause of morbidity in preterm infants, but no screening guidelines exist. We sought to identify risk factors and clinical outcomes associated with PH in preterm infants to develop a PH risk score.Retrospective analysis of two separate populations of preterm infants (NICU cohort n = 230; Clinic registry n = 580.8.3% of the NICU cohort had PH after 4 weeks of age, while 14.8% of the clinic registry had PH after 2 months of age. Lower birth weights and longer initial hospitalizations were associated with PH in both populations (p<0.001 for all tests. Using adjusted logistic regression, patent ductus arteriosus (PDA requiring ligation was associated with PH in both the NICU cohort (OR: 3.19; p = 0.024 and the clinic registry (OR: 2.67; p<0.001. Risk factors (birth weight ≤780 grams, home supplemental oxygen use, and PDA ligation identified in the clinic registry (training dataset were validated in the NICU cohort with 0-1 factors present were associated with ≤1.5% probability of having PH, any 2 factors with a 25% probability, and all 3 factors with a 40% probability.Lower birth weight, PDA ligation, and respiratory support were associated with PH in both populations. A PH risk score based on clinical indicators from the training dataset predicted PH in the validation set. This risk score could help focus resources to preterm infants at higher risk for PH. Further work is needed to determine whether earlier or more aggressive management of ductal lesions could alter PH outcomes.

A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

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Hui Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

Development of a Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS for Predicting Osteoporotic Fracture Risk: Analysis of Data from the Korean National Health Insurance Service.

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Ha Young Kim

Full Text Available Asian-specific prediction models for estimating individual risk of osteoporotic fractures are rare. We developed a Korean fracture risk prediction model using clinical risk factors and assessed validity of the final model.A total of 718,306 Korean men and women aged 50-90 years were followed for 7 years in a national system-based cohort study. In total, 50% of the subjects were assigned randomly to the development dataset and 50% were assigned to the validation dataset. Clinical risk factors for osteoporotic fracture were assessed at the biennial health check. Data on osteoporotic fractures during the follow-up period were identified by ICD-10 codes and the nationwide database of the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS.During the follow-up period, 19,840 osteoporotic fractures were reported (4,889 in men and 14,951 in women in the development dataset. The assessment tool called the Korean Fracture Risk Score (KFRS is comprised of a set of nine variables, including age, body mass index, recent fragility fracture, current smoking, high alcohol intake, lack of regular exercise, recent use of oral glucocorticoid, rheumatoid arthritis, and other causes of secondary osteoporosis. The KFRS predicted osteoporotic fractures over the 7 years. This score was validated using an independent dataset. A close relationship with overall fracture rate was observed when we compared the mean predicted scores after applying the KFRS with the observed risks after 7 years within each 10th of predicted risk.We developed a Korean specific prediction model for osteoporotic fractures. The KFRS was able to predict risk of fracture in the primary population without bone mineral density testing and is therefore suitable for use in both clinical setting and self-assessment. The website is available at http://www.nhis.or.kr.

Assessment of three risk evaluation systems for patients aged ≥70 in East China: performance of SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

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Shan, Lingtong; Ge, Wen; Pu, Yiwei; Cheng, Hong; Cang, Zhengqiang; Zhang, Xing; Li, Qifan; Xu, Anyang; Wang, Qi; Gu, Chang; Zhang, Yangyang

2018-01-01

To assess and compare the predictive ability of three risk evaluation systems (SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system) in patients aged ≥70, and who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in East China. Three risk evaluation systems were applied to 1,946 consecutive patients who underwent isolated CABG from January 2004 to September 2016 in two hospitals. Patients were divided into two subsets according to their age: elderly group (age ≥70) with a younger group (age evaluation system were 0.78(0.64)%, 1.43(1.14)% and 0.78(0.77)%, respectively. SinoSCORE achieved the best discrimination (the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.829), followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = 0.790) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.769) in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, the observed mortality rate was 4.82% while it was 1.38% in the younger group. SinoSCORE (AUC = .829) also achieved the best discrimination in the elderly group, followed by the STS risk evaluation system (AUC = .730) and EuroSCORE II (AUC = 0.640) while all three risk evaluation systems all had good performances in the younger group. SinoSCORE, EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system all achieved positive calibrations in the entire cohort and subsets. The performance of the three risk evaluation systems was not ideal in the entire cohort. In the elderly group, SinoSCORE appeared to achieve better predictive efficiency than EuroSCORE II and the STS risk evaluation system.

Application of the FOUR Score in Intracerebral Hemorrhage Risk Analysis.

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Braksick, Sherri A; Hemphill, J Claude; Mandrekar, Jay; Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Fugate, Jennifer E

2018-06-01

The Full Outline of Unresponsiveness (FOUR) Score is a validated scale describing the essentials of a coma examination, including motor response, eye opening and eye movements, brainstem reflexes, and respiratory pattern. We incorporated the FOUR Score into the existing ICH Score and evaluated its accuracy of risk assessment in spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Consecutive patients admitted to our institution from 2009 to 2012 with spontaneous ICH were reviewed. The ICH Score was calculated using patient age, hemorrhage location, hemorrhage volume, evidence of intraventricular extension, and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS). The FOUR Score was then incorporated into the ICH Score as a substitute for the GCS (ICH Score FS ). The ability of the 2 scores to predict mortality at 1 month was then compared. In total, 274 patients met the inclusion criteria. The median age was 73 years (interquartile range 60-82) and 138 (50.4%) were male. Overall mortality at 1 month was 28.8% (n = 79). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was .91 for the ICH Score and .89 for the ICH Score FS . For ICH Scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, 1-month mortality was 4.2%, 29.9%, 62.5%, 95.0%, and 100%. In the ICH Score FS model, mortality was 10.7%, 26.5%, 64.5%, 88.9%, and 100% for scores of 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. The ICH Score and the ICH Score FS predict 1-month mortality with comparable accuracy. As the FOUR Score provides additional clinical information regarding patient status, it may be a reasonable substitute for the GCS into the ICH Score. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Clinical scoring scales in thyroidology: A compendium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sanjay Kalra

2011-01-01

Full Text Available This compendium brings together traditional as well as contemporary scoring and grading systems used for the screening and diagnosis of various thyroid diseases, dysfunctions, and complications. The article discusses scores used to help diagnose hypo-and hyperthyroidism, to grade and manage goiter and ophthalmopathy, and to assess the risk of thyroid malignancy.

Pre-test probability risk scores and their use in contemporary management of patients with chest pain: One year stress echo cohort study

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Demarco, Daniela Cassar; Papachristidis, Alexandros; Roper, Damian; Tsironis, Ioannis; Byrne, Jonathan; Monaghan, Mark

2015-01-01

Objectives To compare how patients with chest pain would be investigated, based on the two guidelines available for UK cardiologists, on the management of patients with stable chest pain. The UK National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE) guideline which was published in 2010 and the European society of cardiology (ESC) guideline published in 2013. Both guidelines utilise pre-test probability risk scores, to guide the choice of investigation. Design We undertook a large retrospective study to investigate the outcomes of stress echocardiography. Setting A large tertiary centre in the UK in a contemporary clinical practice. Participants Two thirds of the patients in the cohort were referred from our rapid access chest pain clinics. Results We found that the NICE risk score overestimates risk by 20% compared to the ESC Risk score. We also found that based on the NICE guidelines, 44% of the patients presenting with chest pain, in this cohort, would have been investigated invasively, with diagnostic coronary angiography. Using the ESC guidelines, only 0.3% of the patients would be investigated invasively. Conclusion The large discrepancy between the two guidelines can be easily reduced if NICE adopted the ESC risk score. PMID:26673458

A risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in heart failure patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersson, Charlotte; Gislason, Gunnar H; Hlatky, Mark A

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is an established risk factor for poor outcomes in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery, yet risk stratification remains a clinical challenge. We developed an index for 30-day mortality risk prediction in this particular group. METHODS AND RESULTS: All individuals...... with heart failure undergoing non-cardiac surgery between October 23 2004 and October 31 2011 were included from Danish administrative registers (n = 16 827). In total, 1787 (10.6%) died within 30 days. In a simple risk score based on the variables from the revised cardiac risk index, plus age, gender, acute...... by bootstrapping (1000 re-samples) provided c-statistic of 0.79. A more complex risk score based on stepwise logistic regression including 24 variables at P heart failure, this simple...

Are the MDS-UPDRS-based composite scores clinically applicable?

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Makkos, Attila; Kovács, Márton; Aschermann, Zsuzsanna; Harmat, Márk; Janszky, József; Karádi, Kázmér; Kovács, Norbert

2018-02-28

The International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society-sponsored UPDRS (MDS-UPDRS) is a powerful clinical outcome measure. To evaluate the feasibility of various MDS-UPDRS-based composite scores and determine their minimal clinically important difference threshold values. Overall, 1,113 paired investigations of 452 patients were reviewed implementing three different techniques simultaneously. Based on the ordinal regression modeling, the MDS-UPDRS II+III, MDS-UPDRS I+II+III, and the total score of MDS-UPDRS are clinically applicable outcome measures. Any improvement greater than 4.9 points or any worsening more than 4.2 points on MDS-UPDRS II+III represent a minimal, yet clinically meaningful, change. In reference to MDS-UPDRS I+II+III, the smallest changes considered clinically relevant were 6.7 and 5.2 points for improvement and deterioration, respectively. The thresholds for the total score of MDS-UPDRS were 7.1 points for improvement and 6.3 points for worsening. Our findings support the application of various MDS-UPDRS-based composite scores. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

From clinical to tissue-based dual TIA: Validation and refinement of ABCD3-I score.

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Qiliang; Sun, Wen; Xiong, Yunyun; Hankey, Graeme J; Xiao, Lulu; Zhu, Wusheng; Ma, Minmin; Liu, Wenhua; Liu, Dezhi; Cai, Qiankun; Han, Yunfei; Duan, Lihui; Chen, Xiangliang; Xu, Gelin; Liu, Xinfeng

2015-04-07

To investigate whether dual tissue-defined ischemic attacks, defined as multiple diffusion-weighted imaging lesions of different age and/or arterial territory (dual DWI), are an independent and stronger predictor of 90-day stroke than dual clinical TIAs (dual TIA). Consecutive patients with clinically defined TIA were enrolled and assessed clinically and by MRI within 3 days. The predictive ability of the ABCD clinical factors, dual TIA, and dual DWI was evaluated by means of multivariate logistic regression. Among 658 patients who were included in the study and completed 90 days of follow-up, a total of 70 patients (10.6%) experienced subsequent stroke by 90 days. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that dual DWI was an independent predictor for subsequent stroke (odds ratio 4.64, 95% confidence interval 2.15-10.01), while dual TIA was not (odds ratio 1.18, 95% confidence interval 0.69-2.01). C statistics was higher when the item of dual TIA in ABCD3-I score was replaced by dual DWI (0.759 vs 0.729, p = 0.035). The net reclassification value for 90-day stroke risk was also improved (continuous net reclassification improvement 0.301, p = 0.017). Dual DWI independently predicted future stroke in patients with TIA. A new ABCD3-I score with dual DWI instead of dual clinical TIA may improve risk stratification for early stroke risk after TIA. © 2015 American Academy of Neurology.

A urinary biomarker-based risk score correlates with multiparametric MRI for prostate cancer detection.

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Hendriks, Rianne J; van der Leest, Marloes M G; Dijkstra, Siebren; Barentsz, Jelle O; Van Criekinge, Wim; Hulsbergen-van de Kaa, Christina A; Schalken, Jack A; Mulders, Peter F A; van Oort, Inge M

2017-10-01

Prostate cancer (PCa) diagnostics would greatly benefit from more accurate, non-invasive techniques for the detection of clinically significant disease, leading to a reduction of over-diagnosis and over-treatment. The aim of this study was to determine the association between a novel urinary biomarker-based risk score (SelectMDx), multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) outcomes, and biopsy results for PCa detection. This retrospective observational study used data from the validation study of the SelectMDx score, in which urine was collected after digital rectal examination from men undergoing prostate biopsies. A subset of these patients also underwent a mpMRI scan of the prostate. The indications for performing mpMRI were based on persistent clinical suspicion of PCa or local staging after PCa was found upon biopsy. All mpMRI images were centrally reviewed in 2016 by an experienced radiologist blinded for the urine test results and biopsy outcome. The PI-RADS version 2 was used. In total, 172 patients were included for analysis. Hundred (58%) patients had PCa detected upon prostate biopsy, of which 52 (52%) had high-grade disease correlated with a significantly higher SelectMDx score (P < 0.01). The median SelectMDx score was significantly higher in patients with a suspicious significant lesion on mpMRI compared to no suspicion of significant PCa (P < 0.01). For the prediction of mpMRI outcome, the area-under-the-curve of SelectMDx was 0.83 compared to 0.66 for PSA and 0.65 for PCA3. There was a positive association between SelectMDx score and the final PI-RADS grade. There was a statistically significant difference in SelectMDx score between PI-RADS 3 and 4 (P < 0.01) and between PI-RADS 4 and 5 (P < 0.01). The novel urinary biomarker-based SelectMDx score is a promising tool in PCa detection. This study showed promising results regarding the correlation between the SelectMDx score and mpMRI outcomes, outperforming PCA3. Our results suggest that this risk

Comparison of Glasgow-Blatchford score and full Rockall score systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

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Mokhtare, Marjan; Bozorgi, Vida; Agah, Shahram; Nikkhah, Mehdi; Faghihi, Amirhossein; Boghratian, Amirhossein; Shalbaf, Neda; Khanlari, Abbas; Seifmanesh, Hamidreza

2016-01-01

Various risk scoring systems have been recently developed to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB). The two commonly used scoring systems include full Rockall score (RS) and the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS). Bleeding scores were assessed in terms of prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with UGIB. Two hundred patients (age >18 years) with obvious symptoms of UGIB in the emergency department of Rasoul Akram Hospital were enrolled. Full RS and GBS were calculated. We followed the patients for records of rebleeding and 1-month mortality. A receiver operating characteristic curve by using areas under the curve (AUCs) was used to statistically identify the best cutoff point. Eighteen patients were excluded from the study due to failure to follow-up. Rebleeding and mortality rate were 9.34% (n=17) and 11.53% (n=21), respectively. Regarding 1-month mortality, full RS was better than GBS (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021). GBS was more accurate in terms of detecting transfusion need (AUC, 0.757 versus 0.528; P =0.001), rebleeding rate (AUC, 0.722 versus 0.520; P =0.002), intensive care unit admission rate (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P =0.021), and endoscopic intervention rate (AUC, 0.771 versus 0.650; P <0.001). We found the full RS system is better for 1-month mortality prediction while GBS system is better for prediction of other outcomes.

Prediction of clinical infection in women with preterm labour with intact membranes: a score based on ultrasonographic, clinical and biological markers.

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Kayem, Gilles; Maillard, Françoise; Schmitz, Thomas; Jarreau, Pierre H; Cabrol, Dominique; Breart, Gérard; Goffinet, François

2009-07-01

To predict maternal and neonatal clinical infection at admission in women hospitalized for preterm labour (PTL) with intact membranes. Prospective study of 371 women hospitalized for preterm labour with intact membranes. The primary outcome was clinical infection, defined by clinical chorioamnionitis at delivery or early-onset neonatal infection. Clinical infection was identified in 21 cases (5.7%) and was associated with earlier gestational age at admission for PTL, elevated maternal C-reactive protein (CRP) and white blood cell count (WBC), shorter cervical length, and a cervical funnelling on ultrasound. We used ROC curves to determine the cut-off values that minimized the number of false positives and false negatives. The cut-off points chosen were 30 weeks for gestational age at admission, 25 mm for cervical length, 8 mg/l for CRP and 12,000 c/mm(3) for WBC. Each of these variables was assigned a weight on the basis of the adjusted odds ratios in a clinical infection risk score (CIRS). We set a threshold corresponding to a specificity close to 90%, and calculated the positive and negative predictive values and likelihood ratios of each marker and of the CIRS. The CIRS had a sensitivity of 61.9%, while the sensitivity of the other markers ranged from 19.0% to 42.9%. Internal cross-validation was used to estimate the performance of the CIRS in new subjects. The diagnostic values found remained close to the initial values. A clinical infection risk score built from data known at admission for preterm labour helps to identify women and newborns at high risk of clinical infection.

Risk score for contrast induced nephropathy following percutaneous coronary intervention

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghani, Amal Abdel; Tohamy, Khalid Y.

2009-01-01

Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) is an important cause of acute renal failure. Identification of risk factors of CIN and creating a simple risk scoring for CIN after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is important. A prospective single center study was conducted in Kuwait chest disease hospital. All patients admitted to chest disease hospital for PCI from March to May 2005 were included in the study. Total of 247 patients were randomly assigned for the development dataset and 100 for the validation set using the simple random method. The overall occurrence of CIN in the development set was 5.52%. Using multivariate analysis; basal Serum creatinine, shock, female gender, multivessel PCI, and diabetes mellitus were identified as risk factors. Scores assigned to different variables yielded basal creatinine > 115 micron mol/L with the highest score(7), followed by shock (3), female gender, multivessel PCI and diabetes mellitus had the same score (2). Patients were further risk stratified into low risk score ( 1 2). The developed CIN model demonstrated good discriminative power in the validation population. In conclusion, use of a simple risk score for CIN can predict the probability of CIN after PCI; this however needs further validation in larger multicenter trials. (author)

A summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons.

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Reitz, Christiane; Tang, Ming-Xin; Schupf, Nicole; Manly, Jennifer J; Mayeux, Richard; Luchsinger, José A

2010-07-01

To develop a simple summary risk score for the prediction of Alzheimer disease in elderly persons based on their vascular risk profiles. A longitudinal, community-based study. New York, New York. Patients One thousand fifty-one Medicare recipients aged 65 years or older and residing in New York who were free of dementia or cognitive impairment at baseline. We separately explored the associations of several vascular risk factors with late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) using Cox proportional hazards models to identify factors that would contribute to the risk score. Then we estimated the score values of each factor based on their beta coefficients and created the LOAD vascular risk score by summing these individual scores. Risk factors contributing to the risk score were age, sex, education, ethnicity, APOE epsilon4 genotype, history of diabetes, hypertension or smoking, high-density lipoprotein levels, and waist to hip ratio. The resulting risk score predicted dementia well. According to the vascular risk score quintiles, the risk to develop probable LOAD was 1.0 for persons with a score of 0 to 14 and increased 3.7-fold for persons with a score of 15 to 18, 3.6-fold for persons with a score of 19 to 22, 12.6-fold for persons with a score of 23 to 28, and 20.5-fold for persons with a score higher than 28. While additional studies in other populations are needed to validate and further develop the score, our study suggests that this vascular risk score could be a valuable tool to identify elderly individuals who might be at risk of LOAD. This risk score could be used to identify persons at risk of LOAD, but can also be used to adjust for confounders in epidemiologic studies.

Development of a risk score for geographic atrophy in complications of the age-related macular degeneration prevention trial.

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Ying, Gui-Shuang; Maguire, Maureen G

2011-02-01

To develop a risk score for developing geographic atrophy (GA) involving easily obtainable information among patients with bilateral large drusen. Cohort study within a multicenter randomized clinical trial. We included 1052 participants with ≥ 10 large (>125 μm) drusen and visual acuity ≥ 20/40 in each eye. In the Complications of Age-related Macular Degeneration (AMD) Prevention Trial (CAPT), 1 eye of each participant was randomly assigned to laser treatment and the contralateral eye was assigned to observation to evaluate whether laser treatment of drusen could prevent vision loss. Gradings by a reading center were used to identify: CAPT end point GA (total area of GA [>250 μm] > 1 disc area), GA (>175 μm) involving the foveal center (CGA), and GA of any size and location (any GA). Established risk factors (age, smoking status, hypertension, Age-related Eye Disease Study simple severity scale score), both with and without a novel risk factor (night vision score), were used in assigning risk points. The risk scores were evaluated for the ability to discriminate and calibrate GA risk. Development of end point GA, CGA, and any GA. Among 942 CAPT participants who completed 5 years of follow-up and did not have any GA at baseline, 6.8% participants developed CAPT end point GA, 9.6% developed CGA, and 34.4% developed any GA. The 5-year incidence of end point GA in 1 or both eyes of a participant increased with the 15-point GA risk score, from 0.6% for prevention of GA and for clinical assessment of GA risk in early AMD patients. Copyright © 2011 American Academy of Ophthalmology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The PER (Preoperative Esophagectomy Risk) Score: A Simple Risk Score to Predict Short-Term and Long-Term Outcome in Patients with Surgically Treated Esophageal Cancer.

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Reeh, Matthias; Metze, Johannes; Uzunoglu, Faik G; Nentwich, Michael; Ghadban, Tarik; Wellner, Ullrich; Bockhorn, Maximilian; Kluge, Stefan; Izbicki, Jakob R; Vashist, Yogesh K

2016-02-01

Esophageal resection in patients with esophageal cancer (EC) is still associated with high mortality and morbidity rates. We aimed to develop a simple preoperative risk score for the prediction of short-term and long-term outcomes for patients with EC treated by esophageal resection. In total, 498 patients suffering from esophageal carcinoma, who underwent esophageal resection, were included in this retrospective cohort study. Three preoperative esophagectomy risk (PER) groups were defined based on preoperative functional evaluation of different organ systems by validated tools (revised cardiac risk index, model for end-stage liver disease score, and pulmonary function test). Clinicopathological parameters, morbidity, and mortality as well as disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were correlated to the PER score. The PER score significantly predicted the short-term outcome of patients with EC who underwent esophageal resection. PER 2 and PER 3 patients had at least double the risk of morbidity and mortality compared to PER 1 patients. Furthermore, a higher PER score was associated with shorter DFS (P PER score was identified as an independent predictor of tumor recurrence (hazard ratio [HR] 2.1; P PER score allows preoperative objective allocation of patients with EC into different risk categories for morbidity, mortality, and long-term outcomes. Thus, multicenter studies are needed for independent validation of the PER score.

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

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Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The Zhongshan Score

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Zhou, Lin; Guo, Jianming; Wang, Hang; Wang, Guomin

2015-01-01

Abstract In the zero ischemia era of nephron-sparing surgery (NSS), a new anatomic classification system (ACS) is needed to adjust to these new surgical techniques. We devised a novel and simple ACS, and compared it with the RENAL and PADUA scores to predict the risk of NSS outcomes. We retrospectively evaluated 789 patients who underwent NSS with available imaging between January 2007 and July 2014. Demographic and clinical data were assessed. The Zhongshan (ZS) score consisted of three parameters. RENAL, PADUA, and ZS scores are divided into three groups, that is, high, moderate, and low scores. For operative time (OT), significant differences were seen between any two groups of ZS score and PADUA score (all P RENAL showed no significant difference between moderate and high complexity in OT, WIT, estimated blood loss, and increase in SCr. Compared with patients with a low score of ZS, those with a high or moderate score had 8.1-fold or 3.3-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P RENAL score, patients with a high or moderate score had 5.7-fold or 1.9-fold higher risk of surgical complications, respectively (all P RENAL and PADUA scores. ZS score could be used to reflect the surgical complexity and predict the risk of surgical complications in patients undergoing NSS. PMID:25654399

Vascular Risk Factors and Clinical Progression in Spinocerebellar Ataxias

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Raymond Y. Lo

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Background: The contributions of vascular risk factors to spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA are not known.Methods: We studied 319 participants with SCA 1, 2, 3, and 6 and repeatedly measured clinical severity using the Scale for Assessment and Rating of Ataxia (SARA for 2 years. Vascular risk factors were summarized by CHA2DS2-VASc scores as the vascular risk factor index. We employed regression models to study the effects of vascular risk factors on ataxia onset and progression after adjusting for age, sex, and pathological CAG repeats. Our secondary analyses took hyperlipidemia into account.Results: Nearly 60% of SCA participants were at low vascular risks with CHA2DS2-VASc = 0, and 31% scored 2 or greater. Higher CHA2DS2-VASc scores were not associated with either earlier onset or faster progression of ataxia. These findings were not altered after accounting for hyperlipidemia. Discussion: Vascular risks are not common in SCAs and are not associated with earlier onset or faster ataxia progression.

The associations between a polygenic score, reproductive and menstrual risk factors and breast cancer risk.

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Warren Andersen, Shaneda; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Gangnon, Ronald E; Hampton, John M; Figueroa, Jonine D; Skinner, Halcyon G; Engelman, Corinne D; Klein, Barbara E; Titus, Linda J; Newcomb, Polly A

2013-07-01

We evaluated whether 13 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in genome-wide association studies interact with one another and with reproductive and menstrual risk factors in association with breast cancer risk. DNA samples and information on parity, breastfeeding, age at menarche, age at first birth, and age at menopause were collected through structured interviews from 1,484 breast cancer cases and 1,307 controls who participated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three US states. A polygenic score was created as the sum of risk allele copies multiplied by the corresponding log odds estimate. Logistic regression was used to test the associations between SNPs, the score, reproductive and menstrual factors, and breast cancer risk. Nonlinearity of the score was assessed by the inclusion of a quadratic term for polygenic score. Interactions between the aforementioned variables were tested by including a cross-product term in models. We confirmed associations between rs13387042 (2q35), rs4973768 (SLC4A7), rs10941679 (5p12), rs2981582 (FGFR2), rs3817198 (LSP1), rs3803662 (TOX3), and rs6504950 (STXBP4) with breast cancer. Women in the score's highest quintile had 2.2-fold increased risk when compared to women in the lowest quintile (95 % confidence interval: 1.67-2.88). The quadratic polygenic score term was not significant in the model (p = 0.85), suggesting that the established breast cancer loci are not associated with increased risk more than the sum of risk alleles. Modifications of menstrual and reproductive risk factors associations with breast cancer risk by polygenic score were not observed. Our results suggest that the interactions between breast cancer susceptibility loci and reproductive factors are not strong contributors to breast cancer risk.

Fall Risk Score at the Time of Discharge Predicts Readmission Following Total Joint Arthroplasty.

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Ravi, Bheeshma; Nan, Zhang; Schwartz, Adam J; Clarke, Henry D

2017-07-01

Readmission among Medicare recipients is a leading driver of healthcare expenditure. To date, most predictive tools are too coarse for direct clinical application. Our objective in this study is to determine if a pre-existing tool to identify patients at increased risk for inpatient falls, the Hendrich Fall Risk Score, could be used to accurately identify Medicare patients at increased risk for readmission following arthroplasty, regardless of whether the readmission was due to a fall. This study is a retrospective cohort study. We identified 2437 Medicare patients who underwent a primary elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) of the hip or knee for osteoarthritis between 2011 and 2014. The Hendrich Fall Risk score was recorded for each patient preoperatively and postoperatively. Our main outcome measure was hospital readmission within 30 days of discharge. Of 2437 eligible TJA recipients, there were 226 (9.3%) patients who had a score ≥6. These patients were more likely to have an unplanned readmission (unadjusted odds ratio 2.84, 95% confidence interval 1.70-4.76, P 3 days (49.6% vs 36.6%, P = .0001), and were less likely to be sent home after discharge (20.8% vs 35.8%, P fall risk score after TJA is strongly associated with unplanned readmission. Application of this tool will allow hospitals to identify these patients and plan their discharge. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applicability of the COPD-LUCSS-DLCO score for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: Analysis in standard clinical practice conditions.

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Figueira Gonçalves, J M; Pérez Mendez, L I; Gurbani, N; García-Talavera, I; Pérez Pinilla, J L

2018-06-07

The COPD-LUCSS-DLCO score had been validated as a predictive tool capable of identifying patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and a high mortality risk associated with lung cancer (LC); however, studies have not been conducted yet on its use in standard clinical practice. The aim of this study was to estimate the COPD-LUCSS-DLCO scores for patients with COPD treated in Pulmonology consultations and to determine the incidence of LC in each of the subgroups. A retrospective observational study was conducted with a cohort of 159 patients with COPD in Pulmonology outpatient follow-up consultations. We calculated the COPD-LUCSS-DLCO score (0-8) for each patient, with low risk considered at 0-3 points and high risk at ≥3.5 points. We calculated the incidence rate of LC in each of the subgroups. Sixty-two percent of the patients had a high-risk score. We estimated an overall LC rate of 30 per 1000 patients with COPD-year (95% CI: 16-53), 44 per 1000 patients with COPD-year (95% CI: 18-76) among those categorised as high risk and 17 per 1000 patients with COPD-year among those categorised as low risk (95% CI: 4-50). The use of the COPD-LUCSS-DLCO score in standard clinical practice could help detect patients with a greater risk of developing LC, which could help to better manage cases in an LC screening programme. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

The Laboratory-Based Intermountain Validated Exacerbation (LIVE Score Identifies Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients at High Mortality Risk

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Denitza P. Blagev

2018-06-01

Full Text Available Background: Identifying COPD patients at high risk for mortality or healthcare utilization remains a challenge. A robust system for identifying high-risk COPD patients using Electronic Health Record (EHR data would empower targeting interventions aimed at ensuring guideline compliance and multimorbidity management. The purpose of this study was to empirically derive, validate, and characterize subgroups of COPD patients based on routinely collected clinical data widely available within the EHR.Methods: Cluster analysis was used in 5,006 patients with COPD at Intermountain to identify clusters based on a large collection of clinical variables. Recursive Partitioning (RP was then used to determine a preferred tree that assigned patients to clusters based on a parsimonious variable subset. The mortality, COPD exacerbations, and comorbidity profile of the identified groups were examined. The findings were validated in an independent Intermountain cohort and in external cohorts from the United States Veterans Affairs (VA and University of Chicago Medicine systems.Measurements and Main Results: The RP algorithm identified five LIVE Scores based on laboratory values: albumin, creatinine, chloride, potassium, and hemoglobin. The groups were characterized by increasing risk of mortality. The lowest risk, LIVE Score 5 had 8% 4-year mortality vs. 56% in the highest risk LIVE Score 1 (p < 0.001. These findings were validated in the VA cohort (n = 83,134, an expanded Intermountain cohort (n = 48,871 and in the University of Chicago system (n = 3,236. Higher mortality groups also had higher COPD exacerbation rates and comorbidity rates.Conclusions: In large clinical datasets across different organizations, the LIVE Score utilizes existing laboratory data for COPD patients, and may be used to stratify risk for mortality and COPD exacerbations.

Predicting United States Medical Licensure Examination Step 2 clinical knowledge scores from previous academic indicators

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Monteiro KA

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Kristina A Monteiro, Paul George, Richard Dollase, Luba Dumenco Office of Medical Education, The Warren Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence, RI, USA Abstract: The use of multiple academic indicators to identify students at risk of experiencing difficulty completing licensure requirements provides an opportunity to increase support services prior to high-stakes licensure examinations, including the United States Medical Licensure Examination (USMLE Step 2 clinical knowledge (CK. Step 2 CK is becoming increasingly important in decision-making by residency directors because of increasing undergraduate medical enrollment and limited available residency vacancies. We created and validated a regression equation to predict students’ Step 2 CK scores from previous academic indicators to identify students at risk, with sufficient time to intervene with additional support services as necessary. Data from three cohorts of students (N=218 with preclinical mean course exam score, National Board of Medical Examination subject examinations, and USMLE Step 1 and Step 2 CK between 2011 and 2013 were used in analyses. The authors created models capable of predicting Step 2 CK scores from academic indicators to identify at-risk students. In model 1, preclinical mean course exam score and Step 1 score accounted for 56% of the variance in Step 2 CK score. The second series of models included mean preclinical course exam score, Step 1 score, and scores on three NBME subject exams, and accounted for 67%–69% of the variance in Step 2 CK score. The authors validated the findings on the most recent cohort of graduating students (N=89 and predicted Step 2 CK score within a mean of four points (SD=8. The authors suggest using the first model as a needs assessment to gauge the level of future support required after completion of preclinical course requirements, and rescreening after three of six clerkships to identify students who might benefit from

The development of a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns

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Priscila Costa

2015-06-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: to develop a risk score for unplanned removal of peripherally inserted central catheter in newborns.METHOD: prospective cohort study conducted in a neonatal intensive care unit with newborn babies who underwent 524 catheter insertions. The clinical characteristics of the newborn, catheter insertion and intravenous therapy were tested as risk factors for the unplanned removal of catheters using bivariate analysis. The risk score was developed using logistic regression. Accuracy was internally validated based on the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve.RESULTS: the risk score was made up of the following risk factors: transient metabolic disorders; previous insertion of catheter; use of a polyurethane double-lumen catheter; infusion of multiple intravenous solutions through a single-lumen catheter; and tip in a noncentral position. Newborns were classified into three categories of risk of unplanned removal: low (0 to 3 points, moderate (4 to 8 points, and high (≥ 9 points. Accuracy was 0.76.CONCLUSION: the adoption of evidence-based preventative strategies based on the classification and risk factors faced by the newborn is recommended to minimize the occurrence of unplanned removals.

Comparison of Glasgow-Blatchford score and full Rockall score systems to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding

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Mokhtare M

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Marjan Mokhtare, Vida Bozorgi, Shahram Agah, Mehdi Nikkhah, Amirhossein Faghihi, Amirhossein Boghratian, Neda Shalbaf, Abbas Khanlari, Hamidreza Seifmanesh Colorectal Research Center, Rasoul Akram Hospital, Tehran, Iran Background: Various risk scoring systems have been recently developed to predict clinical outcomes in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB. The two commonly used scoring systems include full Rockall score (RS and the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS. Bleeding scores were assessed in terms of prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with UGIB. Patients and methods: Two hundred patients (age >18 years with obvious symptoms of UGIB in the emergency department of Rasoul Akram Hospital were enrolled. Full RS and GBS were calculated. We followed the patients for records of rebleeding and 1-month mortality. A receiver operating characteristic curve by using areas under the curve (AUCs was used to statistically identify the best cutoff point. Results: Eighteen patients were excluded from the study due to failure to follow-up. Rebleeding and mortality rate were 9.34% (n=17 and 11.53% (n=21, respectively. Regarding 1-month mortality, full RS was better than GBS (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P=0.021. GBS was more accurate in terms of detecting transfusion need (AUC, 0.757 versus 0.528; P=0.001, rebleeding rate (AUC, 0.722 versus 0.520; P=0.002, intensive care unit admission rate (AUC, 0.648 versus 0.582; P=0.021, and endoscopic intervention rate (AUC, 0.771 versus 0.650; P<0.001. Conclusion: We found the full RS system is better for 1-month mortality prediction while GBS system is better for prediction of other outcomes. Keywords: full Rockall score, Glasgow-Blatchford score, gastrointestinal bleeding, mortality, prognosis

Almanac 2012: Cardiovascular risk scores. The national society journals present selected research that has driven recent advances in clinical cardiology

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Jill P. Pell

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Global risk scores use individual level information on non-modifiable risk factors (such as age, sex, ethnicity and family history and modifiable risk factors (such as smoking status and blood pressure to predict an individual’s absolute risk of an adverse event over a specified period of time in the future. Cardiovascular risk scores have two major uses in practice. First, they can be used to dichotomise people into a group whose baseline risk, and therefore potential absolute benefit, is sufficiently high to justify the costs and risks associated with an intervention (whether treatment or prevention and a group with a lower absolute risk to whom the intervention is usually denied. Second, they can be used to assess the effectiveness of an intervention (such as smoking cessation or antihypertensive treatment at reducing an individual’s risk of future adverse events. In this context, they can be helpful in informing patients, motivating them to change their lifestyle, and reinforcing the importance of continued compliance.

A novel early risk assessment tool for detecting clinical outcomes in patients with heat-related illness (J-ERATO score: Development and validation in independent cohorts in Japan.

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Kei Hayashida

Full Text Available We sought to develop a novel risk assessment tool to predict the clinical outcomes after heat-related illness.Prospective, multicenter observational study. Patients who transferred to emergency hospitals in Japan with heat-related illness were registered. The sample was divided into two parts: 60% to construct the score and 40% to validate it. A binary logistic regression model was used to predict hospital admission as a primary outcome. The resulting model was transformed into a scoring system.A total of 3,001 eligible patients were analyzed. There was no difference in variables between development and validation cohorts. Based on the result of a logistic regression model in the development phase (n = 1,805, the J-ERATO score was defined as the sum of the six binary components in the prehospital setting (respiratory rate≥22 /min, Glasgow coma scale0.2 by Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The observed proportion of hospital admission increased with increasing J-ERATO score (score = 0, 5.0%; score = 1, 15.0%; score = 2, 24.6%; score = 3, 38.6%; score = 4, 68.0%; score = 5, 85.2%; score = 6, 96.4%. Multivariate analyses showed that the J-ERATO score was an independent positive predictor of hospital admission (adjusted OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 2.06-2.87; P<0.001, intensive care unit (ICU admission (3.73; 2.95-4.72; P<0.001 and in-hospital mortality (1.65; 1.18-2.32; P = 0.004.The J-ERATO score is simply assessed and can facilitate the identification of patients with higher risk of heat-related hospitalization. This scoring system is also significantly associated with the higher likelihood of ICU admission and in-hospital mortality after heat-related hospitalization.

Recurrent epistaxis: predicting risk of 30-day readmission, derivation and validation of RHINO-ooze score.

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Addison, A; Paul, C; Kuo, R; Lamyman, A; Martinez-Devesa, P; Hettige, R

2017-06-01

To derive and validate a predictive scoring tool (RHINO-ooze score) with good sensitivity and specificity in identifying patients with epistaxis at high risk of 30 day readmission and to enable risk stratification for possible definitive intervention. Using medical databases, we searched for factors influencing recurrent epistaxis. The information ascertained together with our analysis of retrospective data on patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2013 and September 2014, was used as the derivation cohort to develop the predictive scoring model (RHINO-ooze score). The tool was validated by performing statistical analysis on the validation cohort of patients admitted with epistaxis between October 2014 and October 2015. Multiple linear regressions with backwards elimination was used to derive the predictive model. The area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity and specificity were calculated. 834 admissions were encountered within the study period. Using the derivative cohort (n= 302) the RHINO-ooze score with a maximum score of 8 from five variables (Recent admission, Haemorrhage point unidentified, Increasing age over 70, posterior Nasal packing, Oral anticoagulant) was developed. The RHINO-ooze score had a chi-square value of 99.72 with a significance level of smaller than 0.0001 and hence an overall good model fit. Comparison between the derivative and validation groups revealed similar rates of 30-day readmission between the cohorts. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting 30-day readmission in high risk patients with recurrent epistaxis (RHINO-ooze score equal/larger than 6) was 81% and 84%, respectively. The RHINO-ooze scoring tool demonstrates good specificity and sensitivity in predicting the risk of 30 day readmission in patients with epistaxis and can be used as an adjunct to clinical decision making with regards to timing of operative intervention in order to reduce readmission rates.

Weighing of risk factors for penetrating keratoplasty graft failure: application of Risk Score System

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Abdo Karim Tourkmani

2017-03-01

Full Text Available AIM: To analyze the relationship between the score obtained in the Risk Score System (RSS proposed by Hicks et al with penetrating keratoplasty (PKP graft failure at 1y postoperatively and among each factor in the RSS with the risk of PKP graft failure using univariate and multivariate analysis. METHODS: The retrospective cohort study had 152 PKPs from 152 patients. Eighteen cases were excluded from our study due to primary failure (10 cases, incomplete medical notes (5 cases and follow-up less than 1y (3 cases. We included 134 PKPs from 134 patients stratified by preoperative risk score. Spearman coefficient was calculated for the relationship between the score obtained and risk of failure at 1y. Univariate and multivariate analysis were calculated for the impact of every single risk factor included in the RSS over graft failure at 1y. RESULTS: Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlation between the score in the RSS and graft failure (P0.05 between diagnosis and lens status with graft failure. The relationship between the other risk factors studied and graft failure was significant (P<0.05, although the results for previous grafts and graft failure was unreliable. None of our patients had previous blood transfusion, thus, it had no impact. CONCLUSION: After the application of multivariate analysis techniques, some risk factors do not show the expected impact over graft failure at 1y.

Support Vector Hazards Machine: A Counting Process Framework for Learning Risk Scores for Censored Outcomes.

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Wang, Yuanjia; Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

2016-01-01

Learning risk scores to predict dichotomous or continuous outcomes using machine learning approaches has been studied extensively. However, how to learn risk scores for time-to-event outcomes subject to right censoring has received little attention until recently. Existing approaches rely on inverse probability weighting or rank-based regression, which may be inefficient. In this paper, we develop a new support vector hazards machine (SVHM) approach to predict censored outcomes. Our method is based on predicting the counting process associated with the time-to-event outcomes among subjects at risk via a series of support vector machines. Introducing counting processes to represent time-to-event data leads to a connection between support vector machines in supervised learning and hazards regression in standard survival analysis. To account for different at risk populations at observed event times, a time-varying offset is used in estimating risk scores. The resulting optimization is a convex quadratic programming problem that can easily incorporate non-linearity using kernel trick. We demonstrate an interesting link from the profiled empirical risk function of SVHM to the Cox partial likelihood. We then formally show that SVHM is optimal in discriminating covariate-specific hazard function from population average hazard function, and establish the consistency and learning rate of the predicted risk using the estimated risk scores. Simulation studies show improved prediction accuracy of the event times using SVHM compared to existing machine learning methods and standard conventional approaches. Finally, we analyze two real world biomedical study data where we use clinical markers and neuroimaging biomarkers to predict age-at-onset of a disease, and demonstrate superiority of SVHM in distinguishing high risk versus low risk subjects.

Heart valve surgery: EuroSCORE vs. EuroSCORE II vs. Society of Thoracic Surgeons score

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Muhammad Sharoz Rabbani

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Background This is a validation study comparing the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE II with the previous additive (AES and logistic EuroSCORE (LES and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ (STS risk prediction algorithm, for patients undergoing valve replacement with or without bypass in Pakistan. Patients and Methods Clinical data of 576 patients undergoing valve replacement surgery between 2006 and 2013 were retrospectively collected and individual expected risks of death were calculated by all four risk prediction algorithms. Performance of these risk algorithms was evaluated in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results There were 28 deaths (4.8% among 576 patients, which was lower than the predicted mortality of 5.16%, 6.96% and 4.94% by AES, LES and EuroSCORE II but was higher than 2.13% predicted by STS scoring system. For single and double valve replacement procedures, EuroSCORE II was the best predictor of mortality with highest Hosmer and Lemmeshow test (H-L p value (0.346 to 0.689 and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve (0.637 to 0.898. For valve plus concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG patients actual mortality was 1.88%. STS calculator came out to be the best predictor of mortality for this subgroup with H-L p value (0.480 to 0.884 and ROC (0.657 to 0.775. Conclusions For Pakistani population EuroSCORE II is an accurate predictor for individual operative risk in patients undergoing isolated valve surgery, whereas STS performs better in the valve plus CABG group.

Quantifying the impact of using Coronary Artery Calcium Score for risk categorization instead of Framingham Score or European Heart SCORE in lipid lowering algorithms in a Middle Eastern population.

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Isma'eel, Hussain A; Almedawar, Mohamad M; Harbieh, Bernard; Alajaji, Wissam; Al-Shaar, Laila; Hourani, Mukbil; El-Merhi, Fadi; Alam, Samir; Abchee, Antoine

2015-10-01

The use of the Coronary Artery Calcium Score (CACS) for risk categorization instead of the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) or European Heart SCORE (EHS) to improve classification of individuals is well documented. However, the impact of reclassifying individuals using CACS on initiating lipid lowering therapy is not well understood. We aimed to determine the percentage of individuals not requiring lipid lowering therapy as per the FRS and EHS models but are found to require it using CACS and vice versa; and to determine the level of agreement between CACS, FRS and EHS based models. Data was collected for 500 consecutive patients who had already undergone CACS. However, only 242 patients met the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. Risk stratification comparisons were conducted according to CACS, FRS, and EHS, and the agreement (Kappa) between them was calculated. In accordance with the models, 79.7% to 81.5% of high-risk individuals were down-classified by CACS, while 6.8% to 7.6% of individuals at intermediate risk were up-classified to high risk by CACS, with slight to moderate agreement. Moreover, CACS recommended treatment to 5.7% and 5.8% of subjects untreated according to European and Canadian guidelines, respectively; whereas 75.2% to 81.2% of those treated in line with the guidelines would not be treated based on CACS. In this simulation, using CACS for risk categorization warrants lipid lowering treatment for 5-6% and spares 70-80% from treatment in accordance with the guidelines. Current strong evidence from double randomized clinical trials is in support of guideline recommendations. Our results call for a prospective trial to explore the benefits/risks of a CACS-based approach before any recommendations can be made.

The high-density lipoprotein-adjusted SCORE model worsens SCORE-based risk classification in a contemporary population of 30 824 Europeans

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Mortensen, Martin B; Afzal, Shoaib; Nordestgaard, Børge G

2015-01-01

.8 years of follow-up, 339 individuals died of CVD. In the SCORE target population (age 40-65; n = 30,824), fewer individuals were at baseline categorized as high risk (≥5% 10-year risk of fatal CVD) using SCORE-HDL compared with SCORE (10 vs. 17% in men, 1 vs. 3% in women). SCORE-HDL did not improve...... with SCORE, but deteriorated risk classification based on NRI. Future guidelines should consider lower decision thresholds and prioritize CVD morbidity and people above age 65....

Influence of bone mineral density measurement on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in postmenopausal Indian women.

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Daswani, Bhavna; Desai, Meena; Mitra, Sumegha; Gavali, Shubhangi; Patil, Anushree; Kukreja, Subhash; Khatkhatay, M Ikram

2016-03-01

Fracture risk assessment tool® calculations can be performed with or without addition of bone mineral density; however, the impact of this addition on fracture risk assessment tool® scores has not been studied in Indian women. Given the limited availability and high cost of bone mineral density testing in India, it is important to know the influence of bone mineral density on fracture risk assessment tool® scores in Indian women. Therefore, our aim was to assess the contribution of bone mineral density in fracture risk assessment tool® outcome in Indian women. Apparently healthy postmenopausal Indian women (n = 506), aged 40-72 years, without clinical risk factors for bone disease, were retrospectively selected, and their fracture risk assessment tool® scores calculated with and without bone mineral density were compared. Based on WHO criteria, 30% women were osteoporotic, 42.9% were osteopenic and 27.1% had normal bone mineral density. Fracture risk assessment tool® scores for risk of both major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture significantly increased on including bone mineral density (P women eligible without bone mineral density was 0 and with bone mineral density was 1, P > 0.05, whereas, for hip fracture risk number of women eligible without bone mineral density was 2 and with bone mineral density was 17, P Indian women. © The Author(s) 2016.

Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

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Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

2014-01-01

Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases

Alimentary Habits, Physical Activity, and Framingham Global Risk Score in Metabolic Syndrome

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Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo, E-mail: anamariafeoli@hotmail.com [Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio Grande do Sul (PUCRS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil)

2014-04-15

Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p < 0.001). We obtained a reduction for intermediate risk in 25.7% of subjects. After intervention, there was a significant reduction (p < 0.01) on cardiovascular age, this being more significant in groups DIP (5.2%) and DIPE (5.3%). Proposed interventions produced beneficial effects for reducing cardiovascular risk score. This study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

Venous Thrombosis Risk after Cast Immobilization of the Lower Extremity: Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Score, L-TRiP(cast), in Three Population-Based Case-Control Studies.

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Nemeth, Banne; van Adrichem, Raymond A; van Hylckama Vlieg, Astrid; Bucciarelli, Paolo; Martinelli, Ida; Baglin, Trevor; Rosendaal, Frits R; le Cessie, Saskia; Cannegieter, Suzanne C

2015-11-01

included between March 2003 and December 2008 and (2) the Milan study, a population-based case-control study with 2,117 cases and 2,088 controls selected between December 1993 and December 2010 at the Thrombosis Center, Fondazione IRCCS Ca' Granda-Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy. The full model consisted of 32 predictors, including three genetic factors and six biomarkers. For this model, an AUC of 0.85 (95% CI 0.77-0.92) was found in individuals with plaster cast immobilization of the lower extremity. The AUC for the restricted model (containing 11 predictors, including two genetic factors and one biomarker) was 0.84 (95% CI 0.77-0.92). The clinical model (consisting of 14 environmental predictors) resulted in an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.66-0.87). The clinical model was converted into a risk score, the L-TRiP(cast) score (Leiden-Thrombosis Risk Prediction for patients with cast immobilization score), which showed an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI 0.66-0.86). Validation in the THE-VTE study data resulted in an AUC of 0.77 (95% CI 0.58-0.96) for the L-TRiP(cast) score. Validation in the Milan study resulted in an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.86-1.00) for the full model, an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.76-0.87) for the restricted model, and an AUC of 0.96 (95% CI 0.92-0.99) for the clinical model. The L-TRiP(cast) score resulted in an AUC of 0.95 (95% CI 0.91-0.99). Major limitations of this study were that information on thromboprophylaxis was not available for patients who had plaster cast immobilization of the lower extremity and that blood was drawn 3 mo after the thrombotic event. These results show that information on environmental risk factors, coagulation factors, and genetic determinants in patients with plaster casts leads to high accuracy in the prediction of VTE risk. In daily practice, the clinical model may be the preferred model as its factors are most easy to determine, while the model still has good predictive performance. These results may provide guidance for

Recalibration of the ACC/AHA Risk Score in Two Population-Based German Cohorts.

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de Las Heras Gala, Tonia; Geisel, Marie Henrike; Peters, Annette; Thorand, Barbara; Baumert, Jens; Lehmann, Nils; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Moebus, Susanne; Erbel, Raimund; Meisinger, Christine; Mahabadi, Amir Abbas; Koenig, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

The 2013 ACC/AHA guidelines introduced an algorithm for risk assessment of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) within 10 years. In Germany, risk assessment with the ESC SCORE is limited to cardiovascular mortality. Applicability of the novel ACC/AHA risk score to the German population has not yet been assessed. We therefore sought to recalibrate and evaluate the ACC/AHA risk score in two German cohorts and to compare it to the ESC SCORE. We studied 5,238 participants from the KORA surveys S3 (1994-1995) and S4 (1999-2001) and 4,208 subjects from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) Study (2000-2003). There were 383 (7.3%) and 271 (6.4%) first non-fatal or fatal ASCVD events within 10 years in KORA and in HNR, respectively. Risk scores were evaluated in terms of calibration and discrimination performance. The original ACC/AHA risk score overestimated 10-year ASCVD rates by 37% in KORA and 66% in HNR. After recalibration, miscalibration diminished to 8% underestimation in KORA and 12% overestimation in HNR. Discrimination performance of the ACC/AHA risk score was not affected by the recalibration (KORA: C = 0.78, HNR: C = 0.74). The ESC SCORE overestimated by 5% in KORA and by 85% in HNR. The corresponding C-statistic was 0.82 in KORA and 0.76 in HNR. The recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score showed strongly improved calibration compared to the original ACC/AHA risk score. Predicting only cardiovascular mortality, discrimination performance of the commonly used ESC SCORE remained somewhat superior to the ACC/AHA risk score. Nevertheless, the recalibrated ACC/AHA risk score may provide a meaningful tool for estimating 10-year risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease in Germany.

Use of clinical risk factors to identify postmenopausal women with vertebral fractures.

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Tobias, J H; Hutchinson, A P; Hunt, L P; McCloskey, E V; Stone, M D; Martin, J C; Thompson, P W; Palferman, T G; Bhalla, A K

2007-01-01

Previous studies have been unable to identify risk factors for prevalent vertebral fractures (VF), which are suitable for use in selection strategies intended to target high-risk sub-groups for diagnostic assessment. However, these studies generally consisted of large epidemiology surveys based on questionnaires and were only able to evaluate a limited number of risk factors. Here, we investigated whether a stronger relationship exists with prevalent VF when conventional risk factors are combined with additional information obtained from detailed one-to-one assessment. Women aged 65-75 registered at four geographically distinct GP practices were invited to participate (n=1,518), of whom 540 attended for assessment as follows: a questionnaire asking about risk factors for osteoporosis such as height loss compared to age 25 and history of non-vertebral fracture (NVF), the get-up-and-go test, Margolis back pain score, measurement of wall-tragus and rib-pelvis distances, and BMD as measured by the distal forearm BMD. A lateral thoraco-lumbar spine X-ray was obtained, which was subsequently scored for the presence of significant vertebral deformities. Of the 509 subjects who underwent spinal radiographs, 37 (7.3%) were found to have one or more VF. Following logistic regression analysis, the four most predictive clinical risk factors for prevalent VF were: height loss (P=0.006), past NVF (P=0.004), history of back pain (P=0.075) and age (P=0.05). BMD was also significantly associated with prevalent VF (P=0.002), but its inclusion did not affect associations with other variables. Factors elicited from detailed one-to-one assessment were not related to the risk of one or more prevalent VFs. The area under ROC curves derived from these regressions, which suggested that models for prevalent VF had modest predictive accuracy, were as follows: 0.68 (BMD), 0.74 (four clinical risk factors above) and 0.78 (clinical risk factors + BMD). Analyses were repeated in relation to the

Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

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Koontz, Bridget F.; Tsivian, Matvey; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Vujaskovic, Zeljko; Moul, Judd; Lee, W. Robert

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D’Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

Impact of Primary Gleason Grade on Risk Stratification for Gleason Score 7 Prostate Cancers

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Koontz, Bridget F., E-mail: bridget.koontz@duke.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Tsivian, Matvey [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Mouraviev, Vladimir [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Sun, Leon [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Vujaskovic, Zeljko [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Moul, Judd [Division of Urology, Department of Surgery, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Lee, W. Robert [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke Prostate Center, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the primary Gleason grade (GG) in Gleason score (GS) 7 prostate cancers for risk of non-organ-confined disease with the goal of optimizing radiotherapy treatment option counseling. Methods: One thousand three hundred thirty-three patients with pathologic GS7 were identified in the Duke Prostate Center research database. Clinical factors including age, race, clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen at diagnosis, and pathologic stage were obtained. Data were stratified by prostate-specific antigen and clinical stage at diagnosis into adapted D'Amico risk groups. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed evaluating for association of primary GG with pathologic outcome. Results: Nine hundred seventy-nine patients had primary GG3 and 354 had GG4. On univariate analyses, GG4 was associated with an increased risk of non-organ-confined disease. On multivariate analysis, GG4 was independently associated with seminal vesicle invasion (SVI) but not extracapsular extension. Patients with otherwise low-risk disease and primary GG3 had a very low risk of SVI (4%). Conclusions: Primary GG4 in GS7 cancers is associated with increased risk of SVI compared with primary GG3. Otherwise low-risk patients with GS 3+4 have a very low risk of SVI and may be candidates for prostate-only radiotherapy modalities.

Predicting Long-term Ischemic Events Using Routine Clinical Parameters in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: The OPT-CAD Risk Score.

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Han, Yaling; Chen, Jiyan; Qiu, Miaohan; Li, Yi; Li, Jing; Feng, Yingqing; Qiu, Jian; Meng, Liang; Sun, Yihong; Tao, Guizhou; Wu, Zhaohui; Yang, Chunyu; Guo, Jincheng; Pu, Kui; Chen, Shaoliang; Wang, Xiaozeng

2018-06-05

The prognosis of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) at hospital discharge was constantly varying, and post-discharge risk of ischemic events remain a concern. However, risk prediction tools to identify risk of ischemia for these patients has not yet been reported. We sought to develop a scoring system for predicting long-term ischemic events in CAD patients receiving antiplatelet therapy that would be beneficial in appropriate personalized decision-making for these patients. In this prospective Optimal antiPlatelet Therapy for Chinese patients with Coronary Artery Disease (OPT-CAD, NCT01735305) registry, a total of 14,032 patients with CAD receiving at least one kind of antiplatelet agent were enrolled from 107 centers across China, from January 2012 to March 2014. The risk scoring system was developed in a derivation cohort (enrolled initially 10,000 patients in the database) using a logistic regression model and was subsequently tested in a validation cohort (the last 4,032 patients). Points in risk score was assigned based on the multivariable odds ratio of each factor. Ischemic events were defined as the composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction or stroke. Ischemic events occurred in 342 (3.4%) patients in the derivation cohort and 160 (4.0%) patients in the validation cohort during 1-year follow-up. The OPT-CAD score, ranging from 0-257 points, consist of 10 independent risk factors, including age (0-71 points), heart rates (0-36 points), hypertension (0-20 points), prior myocardial infarction (16 points), prior stroke (16 points), renal insufficient (21 points), anemia (19 points), low ejection fraction (22 points), positive cardiac troponin (23 points) and ST-segment deviation (13 points). In predicting 1-year ischemic events, the area under receiver operating characteristics curve were 0.73 and 0.72 in derivation and validation cohort, respectively. The incidences of ischemic events in low- (0-90 points), medium- (91-150 points) and

Do medical students’ scores using different assessment instruments predict their scores in clinical reasoning using a computer-based simulation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fida M

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Mariam Fida,1 Salah Eldin Kassab2 1Department of Molecular Medicine, College of Medicine and Medical Sciences, Arabian Gulf University, Manama, Bahrain; 2Department of Medical Education, Faculty of Medicine, Suez Canal University, Ismailia, Egypt Purpose: The development of clinical problem-solving skills evolves over time and requires structured training and background knowledge. Computer-based case simulations (CCS have been used for teaching and assessment of clinical reasoning skills. However, previous studies examining the psychometric properties of CCS as an assessment tool have been controversial. Furthermore, studies reporting the integration of CCS into problem-based medical curricula have been limited. Methods: This study examined the psychometric properties of using CCS software (DxR Clinician for assessment of medical students (n=130 studying in a problem-based, integrated multisystem module (Unit IX during the academic year 2011–2012. Internal consistency reliability of CCS scores was calculated using Cronbach's alpha statistics. The relationships between students' scores in CCS components (clinical reasoning, diagnostic performance, and patient management and their scores in other examination tools at the end of the unit including multiple-choice questions, short-answer questions, objective structured clinical examination (OSCE, and real patient encounters were analyzed using stepwise hierarchical linear regression. Results: Internal consistency reliability of CCS scores was high (α=0.862. Inter-item correlations between students' scores in different CCS components and their scores in CCS and other test items were statistically significant. Regression analysis indicated that OSCE scores predicted 32.7% and 35.1% of the variance in clinical reasoning and patient management scores, respectively (P<0.01. Multiple-choice question scores, however, predicted only 15.4% of the variance in diagnostic performance scores (P<0.01, while

Parthenium dermatitis severity score to assess clinical severity of disease

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Kaushal K Verma

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Parthenium dermatitis is the most common type of airborne contact dermatitis in India. It is a chronic disease of a remitting and relapsing course with significant morbidity and distress, but there is no scoring system to assess its severity. Aim: To design a scoring system for the assessment of clinical severity of disease in Parthenium dermatitis and to use this scoring system in various studies to determine its sensitivity, specificity, and reproducibility. Methods and Results: In our first few studies on Parthenium dermatitis, we designed and used a basic clinical severity scoring system based on itching, morphology of the lesions, and areas involved. However, in subsequent studies, we modified it to the present scoring system as Parthenium dermatitis severity score (PDSS. Our studies showed the high sensitivity of PDSS in characterization of the disease severity at the given point of time, as well as to determine the efficacy of a prescribed treatment modality which was reliable and reproducible. Conclusion: Thus, PDSS may be used by clinicians for appropriate scoring of the clinical severity of Parthenium dermatitis and in monitoring the disease response to therapy.

Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score Predicts Hospital Charges and Resource Utilization After Aortic Valve Replacement

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Arnaoutakis, George J.; George, Timothy J.; Alejo, Diane E.; Merlo, Christian A.; Baumgartner, William A.; Cameron, Duke E.; Shah, Ashish S.

2011-01-01

Context The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) predicted mortality risk score on resource utilization after aortic valve replacement (AVR) has not been previously studied. Objective We hypothesize that increasing STS risk scores in patients having AVR are associated with greater hospital charges. Design, Setting, and Patients Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing AVR at a tertiary care, university hospital over a ten-year period (1/2000–12/2009) were retrospectively reviewed. The current STS formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles (Q), index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with Rank-Sum tests. Linear regression and Spearman’s coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. Main Outcome Measures Inflation-adjusted index hospitalization total charges Results 553 patients had AVR during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for AVR. Median charges were greater in the upper Q of AVR patients [Q1–3,$39,949 (IQR32,708–51,323) vs Q4,$62,301 (IQR45,952–97,103), p=<0.01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between STS risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient: 0.06, 95%CI 0.05–0.07, p<0.01). Spearman’s correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in STS risk score was associated with an added $3,000 in hospital charges. Conclusions This study showed increasing STS risk score predicts greater charges after AVR. As competing therapies such as percutaneous valve replacement emerge to treat high risk patients, these results serve as a benchmark to compare resource utilization. PMID:21497834

Clinical scoring and instrumental analysis to evaluate skin types.

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Mercurio, D G; Segura, J H; Demets, M B A; Maia Campos, P M B G

2013-04-01

The biology of the skin is very complex, and there are a number of methods used to classify the different skin types. It is possible to measure or quantify the characteristics of the specific skin types, using a variety of techniques that can objectively evaluate the properties of the skin in a noninvasive manner. To clinically characterize different skin types by dermatological evaluation and biophysical and skin imaging techniques, and to evaluate the relationship between the different characteristics. The study recruited 26 volunteers. Clinical scoring was performed by a dermatologist who classified the volunteers' skin as normal or dry (group 1) and combination or oily (group 2). Objective measurements included skin microrelief, pH, oiliness, water content of the stratum corneum and transepidermal water loss (TEWL). Positive correlations were found between the level of skin oiliness and skin texture obtained from both instrumental analysis and clinical scoring. The combination and oily skin types had higher clinical scores for shine intensity, oiliness and tendency to pigmentation, and also had higher objective scores for sebum secretion, TEWL and roughness. Biophysical and skin imaging techniques are effective tools to help characterize skin type and assist in clinical dermatology. We found that different skin types had different characteristics related to skin microrelief, oiliness and TEWL, and therefore require specific dermatological treatments. © The Author(s) CED © 2013 British Association of Dermatologists.

New clinical score to diagnose nonalcoholic steatohepatitis in obese patients

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Pulzi Fernanda BU

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD is the most frequent disease associated with abnormal liver tests that is characterized by a wide spectrum of liver damage, ranging from simple macro vesicular steatosis to steatohepatitis (NASH, cirrhosis or liver carcinoma. Liver biopsy is the most precise test to differentiate NASH from other stages of NAFLD, but it is an invasive and expensive method. This study aimed to create a clinical laboratory score capable of identify individual with NASH in severely obese patients submitted to bariatric surgery. Methods The medical records from 66 patients submitted to gastroplasty were reviewed. Their chemistry profile, abdominal ultrasound (US and liver biopsy done during the surgical procedure were analyzed. Patients were classified into 2 groups according to liver biopsy: Non-NASH group - those patients without NAFLD or with grade I, II or III steatosis; and NASH group - those with steatohepatitis or fibrosis. The t-test was used to compare each variable with normal distribution between NASH and Non-NASH groups. When comparing proportions of categorical variables, we used chi-square or z-test, where appropriate. A p-value Results 83% of patients with obesity grades II or III showed NAFLD, and the majority was asymptomatic. Total Cholesterol (TC≥200 mg/dL, alanine aminotransferase (ALT ≥30, AST/ALT ratio (AAR≤ 1, gammaglutaril-transferase (γGT≥30 U/L and abdominal US, compatible with steatosis, showed association with NASH group. We proposed 2 scores: Complete score (TC, ALT, AAR, γGT and US and the simplified score, where US was not included. The combination of biochemical and imaging results improved accuracy to 84.4% the recognition of NASH (sensitivity 70%, specificity 88.6%, NPV 91.2%, PPV 63. 6%. Conclusion Alterations in TC, ALT, AAR, γGT and US are related to the most risk for NASH. The combination of biochemical and imaging results improved accuracy to 84.4% the

Clinical Validity, Understandability, and Actionability of Online Cardiovascular Disease Risk Calculators: Systematic Review.

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Bonner, Carissa; Fajardo, Michael Anthony; Hui, Samuel; Stubbs, Renee; Trevena, Lyndal

2018-02-01

Online health information is particularly important for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, where lifestyle changes are recommended until risk becomes high enough to warrant pharmacological intervention. Online information is abundant, but the quality is often poor and many people do not have adequate health literacy to access, understand, and use it effectively. This project aimed to review and evaluate the suitability of online CVD risk calculators for use by low health literate consumers in terms of clinical validity, understandability, and actionability. This systematic review of public websites from August to November 2016 used evaluation of clinical validity based on a high-risk patient profile and assessment of understandability and actionability using Patient Education Material Evaluation Tool for Print Materials. A total of 67 unique webpages and 73 unique CVD risk calculators were identified. The same high-risk patient profile produced widely variable CVD risk estimates, ranging from as little as 3% to as high as a 43% risk of a CVD event over the next 10 years. One-quarter (25%) of risk calculators did not specify what model these estimates were based on. The most common clinical model was Framingham (44%), and most calculators (77%) provided a 10-year CVD risk estimate. The calculators scored moderately on understandability (mean score 64%) and poorly on actionability (mean score 19%). The absolute percentage risk was stated in most (but not all) calculators (79%), and only 18% included graphical formats consistent with recommended risk communication guidelines. There is a plethora of online CVD risk calculators available, but they are not readily understandable and their actionability is poor. Entering the same clinical information produces widely varying results with little explanation. Developers need to address actionability as well as clinical validity and understandability to improve usefulness to consumers with low health literacy. �

Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ngu, JH; Laursen, Stig Borbjerg; Chin, YK

2017-01-01

Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study.......Performance of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk assessment scores in variceal bleeding: a prospective international multicenter study....

Development and external validation of a clinical prognostic score for death in visceral leishmaniasis patients in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Abongomera

Full Text Available In Ethiopia, case fatality rates among subgroups of visceral leishmaniasis (VL patients are high. A clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients could contribute to optimal management and reduction of these case fatality rates. We aimed to identify predictors of death from VL, and to develop and externally validate a clinical prognostic score for death in VL patients, in a high HIV co-infection burden area in Ethiopia.We conducted a retrospective cohort study in north west Ethiopia. Predictors with an adjusted likelihood ratio ≥1.5 or ≤0.67 were retained to calculate the predictor score. The derivation cohort consisted of 1686 VL patients treated at an upgraded health center and the external validation cohort consisted of 404 VL patients treated in hospital. There were 99 deaths in the derivation cohort and 53 deaths in the external validation cohort. The predictors of death were: age >40 years (score +1; HIV seropositive (score +1; HIV seronegative (score -1; hemoglobin ≤6.5 g/dl (score +1; bleeding (score +1; jaundice (score +1; edema (score +1; ascites (score +2 and tuberculosis (score +1. The total predictor score per patient ranged from -1 to +5. A score of -1, indicated a low risk of death (1.0%, a score of 0 an intermediate risk of death (3.8% and a score of +1 to +5, a high risk of death (10.4-85.7%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.79-0.87 in derivation, and 0.78 (95% confidence interval: 0.72-0.83 in external validation.The overall performance of the score was good. The score can enable the early detection of VL cases at high risk of death, which can inform operational, clinical management guidelines, and VL program management. Implementation of focused strategies could contribute to optimal management and reduction of the case fatality rates.

Performance of a novel clinical score, the Pediatric Asthma Severity Score (PASS), in the evaluation of acute asthma.

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Gorelick, Marc H; Stevens, Molly W; Schultz, Theresa R; Scribano, Philip V

2004-01-01

To evaluate the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of a new clinical asthma score, the Pediatric Asthma Severity Score (PASS), in children aged 1 through 18 years in an acute clinical setting. This was a prospective cohort study of children treated for acute asthma at two urban pediatric emergency departments (EDs). A total of 852 patients were enrolled at one site and 369 at the second site. Clinical findings were assessed at the start of the ED visit, after one hour of treatment, and at the time of disposition. Peak expiratory flow rate (PEFR) (for patients aged 6 years and older) and pulse oximetry were also measured. Composite scores including three, four, or five clinical findings were evaluated, and the three-item score (wheezing, prolonged expiration, and work of breathing) was selected as the PASS. Interobserver reliability for the PASS was good to excellent (kappa = 0.72 to 0.83). There was a significant correlation between PASS and PEFR (r = 0.27 to 0.37) and pulse oximetry (r = 0.29 to 0.41) at various time points. The PASS was able to discriminate between those patients who did and did not require hospitalization, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.82. Finally, the PASS was shown to be responsive, with a 48% relative increase in score from start to end of treatment and an overall effect size of 0.62, indicating a moderate to large effect. This clinical score, the PASS, based on three clinical findings, is a reliable and valid measure of asthma severity in children and shows both discriminative and responsive properties. The PASS may be a useful tool to assess acute asthma severity for clinical and research purposes.

Clinical Evaluation of a Novel and Mobile Autism Risk Assessment

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Duda, Marlena; Daniels, Jena; Wall, Dennis P.

2016-01-01

The Mobile Autism Risk Assessment (MARA) is a new, electronically administered, 7-question autism spectrum disorder (ASD) screen to triage those at highest risk for ASD. Children 16 months-17 years (N = 222) were screened during their first visit in a developmental-behavioral pediatric clinic. MARA scores were compared to diagnosis from the…

Stroke Risk Perception in Atrial Fibrillation Patients is not Associated with Clinical Stroke Risk.

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Fournaise, Anders; Skov, Jane; Bladbjerg, Else-Marie; Leppin, Anja

2015-11-01

Clinical risk stratification models, such as the CHA2DS2-VASc, are used to assess stroke risk in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. No study has yet investigated whether and to which extent these patients have a realistic perception of their personal stroke risk. The purpose of this study was to investigate and describe the association between AF patients' stroke risk perception and clinical stroke risk. In an observational cross-sectional study design, we surveyed 178 AF patients with a mean age of 70.6 years (SD 8.3) in stable anticoagulant treatment (65% treatment duration >12 months). Clinical stroke risk was scored through the CHA2DS2-VASc, and patients rated their perceived personal stroke risk on a 7-point Likert scale. There was no significant association between clinical stroke risk assessment and patients' stroke risk perception (rho = .025; P = .741). Approximately 60% of the high-risk patients had an unrealistic perception of their own stroke risk, and there was no significant increase in risk perception from those with a lower compared with a higher risk factor load (χ(2) = .010; P = .522). Considering possible negative implications in terms of lack of motivation for lifestyle behavior change and adequate adherence to the treatment and monitoring of vitamin K antagonist, the apparent underestimation of risk by large subgroups warrants attention and needs further investigation with regard to possible behavioral consequences. Copyright © 2015 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Risk of Financial Incapacity and Financial Exploitation in Community-dwelling Older Adults: Utility of a Scoring System for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale.

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Lichtenberg, Peter A; Gross, Evan; Ficker, Lisa J

2018-06-08

This work examines the clinical utility of the scoring system for the Lichtenberg Financial Decision-making Rating Scale (LFDRS) and its usefulness for decision making capacity and financial exploitation. Objective 1 was to examine the clinical utility of a person centered, empirically supported, financial decision making scale. Objective 2 was to determine whether the risk-scoring system created for this rating scale is sufficiently accurate for the use of cutoff scores in cases of decisional capacity and cases of suspected financial exploitation. Objective 3 was to examine whether cognitive decline and decisional impairment predicted suspected financial exploitation. Two hundred independently living, non-demented community-dwelling older adults comprised the sample. Participants completed the rating scale and other cognitive measures. Receiver operating characteristic curves were in the good to excellent range for decisional capacity scoring, and in the fair to good range for financial exploitation. Analyses supported the conceptual link between decision making deficits and risk for exploitation, and supported the use of the risk-scoring system in a community-based population. This study adds to the empirical evidence supporting the use of the rating scale as a clinical tool assessing risk for financial decisional impairment and/or financial exploitation.

Derivation and validation of a novel risk score for safe discharge after acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding: a modelling study.

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Oakland, Kathryn; Jairath, Vipul; Uberoi, Raman; Guy, Richard; Ayaru, Lakshmana; Mortensen, Neil; Murphy, Mike F; Collins, Gary S

2017-09-01

Acute lower gastrointestinal bleeding is a common reason for emergency hospital admission, and identification of patients at low risk of harm, who are therefore suitable for outpatient investigation, is a clinical and research priority. We aimed to develop and externally validate a simple risk score to identify patients with lower gastrointestinal bleeding who could safely avoid hospital admission. We undertook model development with data from the National Comparative Audit of Lower Gastrointestinal Bleeding from 143 hospitals in the UK in 2015. Multivariable logistic regression modelling was used to identify predictors of safe discharge, defined as the absence of rebleeding, blood transfusion, therapeutic intervention, 28 day readmission, or death. The model was converted into a simplified risk scoring system and was externally validated in 288 patients admitted with lower gastrointestinal bleeding (184 safely discharged) from two UK hospitals (Charing Cross Hospital, London, and Hammersmith Hospital, London) that had not contributed data to the development cohort. We calculated C statistics for the new model and did a comparative assessment with six previously developed risk scores. Of 2336 prospectively identified admissions in the development cohort, 1599 (68%) were safely discharged. Age, sex, previous admission for lower gastrointestinal bleeding, rectal examination findings, heart rate, systolic blood pressure, and haemoglobin concentration strongly discriminated safe discharge in the development cohort (C statistic 0·84, 95% CI 0·82-0·86) and in the validation cohort (0·79, 0·73-0·84). Calibration plots showed the new risk score to have good calibration in the validation cohort. The score was better than the Rockall, Blatchford, Strate, BLEED, AIMS65, and NOBLADS scores in predicting safe discharge. A score of 8 or less predicts a 95% probability of safe discharge. We developed and validated a novel clinical prediction model with good discriminative

[Clinical scores for the venous thromboembolic disease: an aid for the diagnosis and the treatment?].

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Junod, A

2015-03-04

The venous thromboembolic disease includes a wide range of conditions from well defined medical entities (pulmonary embolism, deep venous thrombosis), their diagnosis and prognosis, as well as the risk of developping a venous thromboembolic disease in association with hospitalisation for acute medical illness and with cancer. The assessment of the risk of treatment with anticoagulants is also itaken into account. For all these medical situations, numerous (approximately 50) clinical scores have been reported. They will be presented and critically analysed in the next series of 6 articles.

Children with hypercholesterolemia of unknown cause: Value of genetic risk scores.

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Sjouke, Barbara; Tanck, Michael W T; Fouchier, Sigrid W; Defesche, Joep C; Hutten, Barbara A; Wiegman, Albert; Kastelein, John J P; Hovingh, G Kees

2016-01-01

Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is caused by mutations in LDLR, APOB, or PCSK9, and in a previous study, we identified a causative mutation in these FH genes in 95% (255 of 269) of children with the FH phenotype. It has been hypothesized that a polygenic form of hypercholesterolemia is present in FH patients in whom no mutation is identified in the 3 FH genes. To address whether a polygenic form of hypercholesterolemia, defined as high-weighted effect of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) raising SNPs expressed as the genetic risk score (GRS), is present in the remaining 14 children. On reassessment of the molecular diagnosis and clinical phenotype, 8 FH kindreds met the criteria for hypercholesterolemia of unknown cause and were included in this study. We calculated a weighted GRS comprising 10 established LDL-C-associated SNPs and the APOE genotype in these index cases and evaluated whether the index cases were characterized by an increased GRS compared to 26 first-degree relatives. Phenotypically affected and unaffected individuals could not be distinguished based on any of the risk scores. In this and our previous study, we show that a causal mutation in LDLR, APOB, and PCSK9 can be identified in almost all children with a definite clinical diagnosis of FH. In the small group of patients without a mutation, we did not observe a higher GRS compared with unaffected relatives, which suggests that the FH phenotype is not caused by the aggregate of LDL-C increasing SNPs. Our data imply that application of the GRS is not instrumental as a diagnostic tool to individually define clinically diagnosed FH patients with polygenic hypercholesterolemia in our study population. Copyright © 2016 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting long-term mortality after Fontan procedures: A risk score based on 6707 patients from 28 studies

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Alsaied, Tarek; Bokma, Jouke P.; Engel, Mark E.; Kuijpers, Joey M.; Hanke, Samuel P.; Zuhlke, Liesl; Zhang, Bin; Veldtman, Gruschen R.

2017-01-01

Reported long-term outcome measures vary greatly between studies in Fontan patients making comprehensive appraisal of mortality hazard challenging. We sought to create a clinical risk score to assist monitoring of Fontan patients in the outpatient setting. A systematic review was conducted to

Society of Thoracic Surgeons Risk Score predicts hospital charges and resource use after aortic valve replacement.

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Arnaoutakis, George J; George, Timothy J; Alejo, Diane E; Merlo, Christian A; Baumgartner, William A; Cameron, Duke E; Shah, Ashish S

2011-09-01

The impact of Society of Thoracic Surgeons predicted mortality risk score on resource use has not been previously studied. We hypothesize that increasing Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk scores in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement are associated with greater hospital charges. Clinical and financial data for patients undergoing aortic valve replacement at The Johns Hopkins Hospital over a 10-year period (January 2000 to December 2009) were reviewed. The current Society of Thoracic Surgeons formula (v2.61) for in-hospital mortality was used for all patients. After stratification into risk quartiles, index admission hospital charges were compared across risk strata with rank-sum and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Linear regression and Spearman's coefficient assessed correlation and goodness of fit. Multivariable analysis assessed relative contributions of individual variables on overall charges. A total of 553 patients underwent aortic valve replacement during the study period. Average predicted mortality was 2.9% (±3.4) and actual mortality was 3.4% for aortic valve replacement. Median charges were greater in the upper quartile of patients undergoing aortic valve replacement (quartiles 1-3, $39,949 [interquartile range, 32,708-51,323] vs quartile 4, $62,301 [interquartile range, 45,952-97,103], P < .01]. On univariate linear regression, there was a positive correlation between Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score and log-transformed charges (coefficient, 0.06; 95% confidence interval, 0.05-0.07; P < .01). Spearman's correlation R-value was 0.51. This positive correlation persisted in risk-adjusted multivariable linear regression. Each 1% increase in Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score was associated with an added $3000 in hospital charges. This is the first study to show that increasing Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk score predicts greater charges after aortic valve replacement. As competing therapies, such as percutaneous valve replacement, emerge to

Long-term bleeding risk prediction in 'real world' patients with atrial fibrillation: Comparison of the HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding risk scores. The Murcia Atrial Fibrillation Project.

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Esteve-Pastor, María Asunción; Rivera-Caravaca, José Miguel; Roldan, Vanessa; Vicente, Vicente; Valdés, Mariano; Marín, Francisco; Lip, Gregory Y H

2017-10-05

Risk scores in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) based on clinical factors alone generally have only modest predictive value for predicting high risk patients that sustain events. Biomarkers might be an attractive prognostic tool to improve bleeding risk prediction. The new ABC-Bleeding score performed better than HAS-BLED score in a clinical trial cohort but has not been externally validated. The aim of this study was to analyze the predictive performance of the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED score in an independent "real-world" anticoagulated AF patients with long-term follow-up. We enrolled 1,120 patients stable on vitamin K antagonist treatment. The HAS-BLED and ABC-Bleeding scores were quantified. Predictive values were compared by c-indexes, IDI, NRI, as well as decision curve analysis (DCA). Median HAS-BLED score was 2 (IQR 2-3) and median ABC-Bleeding was 16.5 (IQR 14.3-18.6). After 6.5 years of follow-up, 207 (2.84 %/year) patients had major bleeding events, of which 65 (0.89 %/year) had intracranial haemorrhage (ICH) and 85 (1.17 %/year) had gastrointestinal bleeding events (GIB). The c-index of HAS-BLED was significantly higher than ABC-Bleeding for major bleeding (0.583 vs 0.518; p=0.025), GIB (0.596 vs 0.519; p=0.017) and for the composite of ICH-GIB (0.593 vs 0.527; p=0.030). NRI showed a significant negative reclassification for major bleeding and for the composite of ICH-GIB with the ABC-Bleeding score compared to HAS-BLED. Using DCAs, the use of HAS-BLED score gave an approximate net benefit of 4 % over the ABC-Bleeding score. In conclusion, in the first "real-world" validation of the ABC-Bleeding score, HAS-BLED performed significantly better than the ABC-Bleeding score in predicting major bleeding, GIB and the composite of GIB and ICH.

External validation of scoring systems in risk stratification of upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

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Anchu, Anna Cherian; Mohsina, Subair; Sureshkumar, Sathasivam; Mahalakshmy, T; Kate, Vikram

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to externally validate the four commonly used scoring systems in the risk stratification of patients with upper gastrointestinal bleed (UGIB). Patients of UGIB who underwent endoscopy within 24 h of presentation were stratified prospectively using the pre-endoscopy Rockall score (PRS) >0, complete Rockall score (CRS) >2, Glasgow Blatchford bleeding scores (GBS) >3, and modified GBS (m-GBS) >3 scores. Patients were followed up to 30 days. Prognostic accuracy of the scores was done by comparing areas under curve (AUC) in terms of overall risk stratification, re-bleeding, mortality, need for intervention, and length of hospitalization. One hundred and seventy-five patients were studied. All four scores performed better in the overall risk stratification on AUC [PRS = 0.566 (CI: 0.481-0.651; p-0.043)/CRS = 0.712 (CI: 0.634-0.790); p0.001); m-GBS = 0.802 (CI: 0.734-0.871; pbleed [AUC-0.679 (CI: 0.579-0.780; p = 0.003)]. All the scoring systems except PRS were found to be significantly better in detecting 30-day mortality with a high AUC (CRS = 0.798; p-0.042)/GBS = 0.833; p-0.023); m-GBS = 0.816; p-0.031). All four scores demonstrated significant accuracy in the risk stratification of non-variceal patients; however, only GBS and m-GBS were significant in variceal etiology. Higher cutoff scores achieved better sensitivity/specificity [RS > 0 (50/60.8), CRS > 1 (87.5/50.6), GBS > 7 (88.5/63.3), m-GBS > 7(82.3/72.6)] in the risk stratification. GBS and m-GBS appear to be more valid in risk stratification of UGIB patients in this region. Higher cutoff values achieved better predictive accuracy.

Comparison of Accuracy of Diabetes Risk Score and Components of the Metabolic Syndrome in Assessing Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Inter99 Cohort

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shafizadeh, Tracy B; Moler, Edward J; Kolberg, Janice A

2011-01-01

developed diabetes risk score, PreDxH Diabetes Risk Score (DRS). DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. Methodology/Principal Findings: DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged......Background: Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and a previously...... 30–60) for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity...

The Predictive Value of Preendoscopic Risk Scores to Predict Adverse Outcomes in Emergency Department Patients With Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramaekers, Rosa; Mukarram, Muhammad; Smith, Christine A M; Thiruganasambandamoorthy, Venkatesh

2016-11-01

Risk stratification of emergency department (ED) patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) using preendoscopic risk scores can aid ED physicians in disposition decision-making. We conducted a systematic review to assess the predictive value of preendoscopic risk scores for 30-day serious adverse events. We searched MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from inception to March 2015. We included studies involving adult ED UGIB patients evaluating preendoscopic risk scores and excluded reviews, case reports, and animal studies. The composite outcome included 30-day mortality, recurrent bleeding, and need for intervention. In two phases (screening and full review), two reviewers independently screened articles for inclusion and extracted patient-level data. The consensus data were used for analysis. We reported sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios with 95% confidence intervals. We identified 3,173 articles, of which 16 were included: three studied Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS); one studied clinical Rockall score (cRockall); two studied AIMS65; six compared GBS and cRockall; three compared GBS, a modification of the GBS, and cRockall; and one compared the GBS and AIMS65. Overall, the sensitivity and specificity of the GBS were 0.98 and 0.16, respectively; for the cRockall they were 0.93 and 0.24, respectively; and for the AIMS65 they were 0.79 and 0.61, respectively. The GBS with a cutoff point of 0 had a sensitivity of 0.99 and a specificity of 0.08. The GBS with a cutoff point of 0 was superior over other cutoff points and risk scores for identifying low-risk patients but had a very low specificity. None of the risk scores identified by our systematic review were robust and, hence, cannot be recommended for use in clinical practice. Future prospective studies are needed to develop robust new scores for use in ED patients with UGIB. © 2016 by the

Development and Validation of a Preprocedural Risk Score to Predict Access Site Complications After Peripheral Vascular Interventions Based on the Vascular Quality Initiative Database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Ortiz

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Access site complications following peripheral vascular intervention (PVI are associated with prolonged hospitalization and increased mortality. Prediction of access site complication risk may optimize PVI care; however, there is no tool designed for this. We aimed to create a clinical scoring tool to stratify patients according to their risk of developing access site complications after PVI. Methods: The Society for Vascular Surgery’s Vascular Quality Initiative database yielded 27,997 patients who had undergone PVI at 131 North American centers. Clinically and statistically significant preprocedural risk factors associated with in-hospital, post-PVI access site complications were included in a multivariate logistic regression model, with access site complications as the outcome variable. A predictive model was developed with a random sample of 19,683 (70% PVI procedures and validated in 8,314 (30%. Results: Access site complications occurred in 939 (3.4% patients. The risk tool predictors are female gender, age > 70 years, white race, bedridden ambulatory status, insulin-treated diabetes mellitus, prior minor amputation, procedural indication of claudication, and nonfemoral arterial access site (model c-statistic = 0.638. Of these predictors, insulin-treated diabetes mellitus and prior minor amputation were protective of access site complications. The discriminatory power of the risk model was confirmed by the validation dataset (c-statistic = 0.6139. Higher risk scores correlated with increased frequency of access site complications: 1.9% for low risk, 3.4% for moderate risk and 5.1% for high risk. Conclusions: The proposed clinical risk score based on eight preprocedural characteristics is a tool to stratify patients at risk for post-PVI access site complications. The risk score may assist physicians in identifying patients at risk for access site complications and selection of patients who may benefit from bleeding avoidance

A score for measuring health risk perception in environmental surveys.

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Marcon, Alessandro; Nguyen, Giang; Rava, Marta; Braggion, Marco; Grassi, Mario; Zanolin, Maria Elisabetta

2015-09-15

In environmental surveys, risk perception may be a source of bias when information on health outcomes is reported using questionnaires. Using the data from a survey carried out in the largest chipboard industrial district in Italy (Viadana, Mantova), we devised a score of health risk perception and described its determinants in an adult population. In 2006, 3697 parents of children were administered a questionnaire that included ratings on 7 environmental issues. Items dimensionality was studied by factor analysis. After testing equidistance across response options by homogeneity analysis, a risk perception score was devised by summing up item ratings. Factor analysis identified one latent factor, which we interpreted as health risk perception, that explained 65.4% of the variance of five items retained after scaling. The scale (range 0-10, mean ± SD 9.3 ± 1.9) had a good internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha 0.87). Most subjects (80.6%) expressed maximum risk perception (score = 10). Italian mothers showed significantly higher risk perception than foreign fathers. Risk perception was higher for parents of young children, and for older parents with a higher education, than for their counterparts. Actual distance to major roads was not associated with the score, while self-reported intense traffic and frequent air refreshing at home predicted higher risk perception. When investigating health effects of environmental hazards using questionnaires, care should be taken to reduce the possibility of awareness bias at the stage of study planning and data analysis. Including appropriate items in study questionnaires can be useful to derive a measure of health risk perception, which can help to identify confounding of association estimates by risk perception. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Polygenic risk scores for smoking: predictors for alcohol and cannabis use?

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Vink, J.M.; de Geus, E.J.C.; Willemsen, G.; Neale, M.C.; Furberg, H.; Boomsma, D.I.

2014-01-01

Background and Aims: A strong correlation exists between smoking and the use of alcohol and cannabis. This paper uses polygenic risk scores to explore the possibility of overlapping genetic factors. Those scores reflect a combined effect of selected risk alleles for smoking. Methods: Summary-level

Risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response score to guide decision-making in patients with suspected appendicitis.

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Scott, A J; Mason, S E; Arunakirinathan, M; Reissis, Y; Kinross, J M; Smith, J J

2015-04-01

Current management of suspected appendicitis is hampered by the overadmission of patients with non-specific abdominal pain and a significant negative exploration rate. The potential benefits of risk stratification by the Appendicitis Inflammatory Response (AIR) score to guide clinical decision-making were assessed. During this 50-week prospective observational study at one institution, the AIR score was calculated for all patients admitted with suspected appendicitis. Appendicitis was diagnosed by histological examination, and patients were classified as having non-appendicitis pain if histological findings were negative or surgery was not performed. The diagnostic performance of the AIR score and the potential for risk stratification to reduce admissions, optimize imaging and prevent unnecessary explorations were quantified. A total of 464 patients were included, of whom 210 (63·3 per cent) with non-appendicitis pain were correctly classified as low risk. However, 13 low-risk patients had appendicitis. Low-risk patients accounted for 48·1 per cent of admissions (223 of 464), 57 per cent of negative explorations (48 of 84) and 50·7 per cent of imaging requests (149 of 294). An AIR score of 5 or more (intermediate and high risk) had high sensitivity for all severities of appendicitis (90 per cent) and also for advanced appendicitis (98 per cent). An AIR score of 9 or more (high risk) was very specific (97 per cent) for appendicitis, and the majority of patients with appendicitis in the high-risk group (21 of 30, 70 per cent) had perforation or gangrene. Ultrasound imaging could not exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative likelihood ratio (LR) 1·0) but could rule-in the diagnosis in intermediate-risk patients (positive LR 10·2). CT could exclude appendicitis in low-risk patients (negative LR 0·0) and rule-in appendicitis in the intermediate group (positive LR 10·9). Risk stratification of patients with suspected appendicitis by the AIR score could

Clinical Course Score (CCS): a new clinical score to evaluate efficacy of neurotrauma treatment in traumatic brain injury and subarachnoid hemorrhage.

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Brandner, Sebastian; Kellermann, Isabel; Hore, Nirjhar; Bozhkov, Yavor; Buchfelder, Michael

2015-01-01

Neurotrauma continues to represent a challenging public health issue requiring continual improvement in therapeutic approaches. As no such current system exists, we present in this study the Clinical Course Score (CCS) as a new clinical score to evaluate the efficacy of neurotrauma treatment. The CCS was calculated in neurotrauma patients to be the difference between the grade of the Glasgow Outcome Scale 6 months after discharge from our department and the grade of a 1 to 5 point reduced Glasgow Coma Scale on admission. We assessed the CCS in a total of 248 patients (196 traumatic brain injury [TBI] patients and 52 subarachnoid hemorrhage [SAH] patients) who were treated in our Department of Neurosurgery between January 2011 and December 2012. We found negative CCS grades both in mild TBI and in mild SAH patients. In patients with severe TBI or SAH, we found positive CCS grades. In SAH patients, we found higher CCS scores in younger patients compared with elderly subjects in both mild and severe cases. The CCS can be useful in evaluating different therapeutic approaches during neurotrauma therapy. This new score might improve assessment of beneficial effects of therapeutic procedures.

Emergency Medicine Evaluation of Community-Acquired Pneumonia: History, Examination, Imaging and Laboratory Assessment, and Risk Scores.

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Long, Brit; Long, Drew; Koyfman, Alex

2017-11-01

Pneumonia is a common infection, accounting for approximately one million hospitalizations in the United States annually. This potentially life-threatening disease is commonly diagnosed based on history, physical examination, and chest radiograph. To investigate emergency medicine evaluation of community-acquired pneumonia including history, physical examination, imaging, and the use of risk scores in patient assessment. Pneumonia is the number one cause of death from infectious disease. The condition is broken into several categories, the most common being community-acquired pneumonia. Diagnosis centers on history, physical examination, and chest radiograph. However, all are unreliable when used alone, and misdiagnosis occurs in up to one-third of patients. Chest radiograph has a sensitivity of 46-77%, and biomarkers including white blood cell count, procalcitonin, and C-reactive protein provide little benefit in diagnosis. Biomarkers may assist admitting teams, but require further study for use in the emergency department. Ultrasound has shown utility in correctly identifying pneumonia. Clinical gestalt demonstrates greater ability to diagnose pneumonia. Clinical scores including Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI); Confusion, blood Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, age 65 score (CURB-65); and several others may be helpful for disposition, but should supplement, not replace, clinical judgment. Patient socioeconomic status must be considered in disposition decisions. The diagnosis of pneumonia requires clinical gestalt using a combination of history and physical examination. Chest radiograph may be negative, particularly in patients presenting early in disease course and elderly patients. Clinical scores can supplement clinical gestalt and assist in disposition when used appropriately. Published by Elsevier Inc.

A Risk Prediction Score for Kidney Failure or Mortality in Rhabdomyolysis

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McMahon, Gearoid M.; Zeng, Xiaoxi; Waikar, Sushrut S.

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Rhabdomyolysis ranges in severity from asymptomatic elevations in creatine phosphokinase levels to a life-threatening disorder characterized by severe acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis or continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT). OBJECTIVE To develop a risk prediction tool to identify patients at greatest risk of RRT or in-hospital mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective cohort study of 2371 patients admitted between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2011, to 2 large teaching hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts, with creatine phosphokinase levels in excess of 5000 U/L within 3 days of admission. The derivation cohort consisted of 1397 patients from Massachusetts General Hospital, and the validation cohort comprised 974 patients from Brigham and Women’s Hospital. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The composite of RRT or in-hospital mortality. RESULTS The causes and outcomes of rhabdomyolysis were similar between the derivation and validation cohorts. In total, the composite outcome occurred in 19.0% of patients (8.0% required RRT and 14.1% died during hospitalization). The highest rates of the composite outcome were from compartment syndrome (41.2%), sepsis (39.3%), and following cardiac arrest (58.5%). The lowest rates were from myositis (1.7%), exercise (3.2%), and seizures (6.0%). The independent predictors of the composite outcome were age, female sex, cause of rhabdomyolysis, and values of initial creatinine, creatine phosphokinase, phosphate, calcium, and bicarbonate. We developed a risk-prediction score from these variables in the derivation cohort and subsequently applied it in the validation cohort. The C statistic for the prediction model was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.80–0.85) in the derivation cohort and 0.83 (0.80–0.86) in the validation cohort. The Hosmer-Lemeshow P values were .14 and .28, respectively. In the validation cohort, among the patients with the lowest risk score (10), 61.2% died or needed RRT. CONCLUSIONS AND

Combined use of aortic dissection detection risk score and D-dimer in the diagnostic workup of suspected acute aortic dissection.

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Nazerian, Peiman; Morello, Fulvio; Vanni, Simone; Bono, Alessia; Castelli, Matteo; Forno, Daniela; Gigli, Chiara; Soardo, Flavia; Carbone, Federica; Lupia, Enrico; Grifoni, Stefano

2014-07-15

Acute aortic dissection (AD) represents a diagnostic conundrum. Validated algorithms are particularly needed to identify patients where AD could be ruled out without aortic imaging. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of a strategy combining the aortic dissection detection (ADD) risk score with D-dimer, a sensitive biomarker of AD. Patients from two clinical centers with suspected AD were prospectively enrolled in a registry, from January 2008 to March 2013. The ADD risk score was calculated by retrospective blinded chart review. For D-dimer, a cutoff of 500 ng/ml was applied. AD was diagnosed in 233 of 1035 (22.5%) patients. The ADD risk score was 0 in 322 (31.1%), 1 in 508 (49.1%) and >1 in 205 (19.8%) patients. The sensitivity and the failure rate of D-dimer were 100% and 0% in patients with ADD score 0, versus 97.5% (95% CI 91.4-99.6%) and 4.2% (95% CI 0.7-12.5%) in patients with ADD risk score >1. In patients with ADD risk score ≤ 1, the sensitivity and the failure rate of D-dimer were 98.7% (95% CI 95.3-99.8%) and 0.8% (95% CI 0.1-2.6%). The diagnostic efficiency of D-dimer in patients with ADD risk score 0 and ≤ 1 was 8.9% (95% CI 7.2-10.7%) and 23.6% (95% CI 21.1-26.2%) respectively. In a large cohort of patients with suspected AD, the presence of ADD risk score 0 or ≤ 1 combined with a negative D-dimer accurately and efficiently ruled out AD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pressure Ulcer Risk Evaluation in Critical Patients: Clinical and Social Characteristics.

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de Azevedo Macena, Mônica Suêla; da Costa Silva, Rayanne Suely; Dias Fernandes, Maria Isabel Da Conceição; de Almeida Medeiros, Ana Beatriz; Batista Lúcio, Kadyjina Daiane; de Carvalho Lira, Ana Luisa Brandão

2017-01-01

Pressure ulcers increase hospital stays and treatment costs due to their complications. Therefore, recognizing factors that contribute to pressure ulcer risk are important to patient safety. To evaluate the association between the scores of the Waterlow, Braden, and Norton scales and clinical and social characteristics in critically ill patients. A cross-sectional study of 78 patients in an adult intensive care unit of a university hospital in Northeastern Brazil was conducted from July to December 2015. Data included social and clinical information and the risk factors of the Braden, Norton and Waterlow scales. Data were analysed by the descriptive and inferential statistics. Most of the participants were female, adults and elderly people with brown skin colour, low education levels and insufficient income. Most of them showed a high risk for developing pressure ulcers using the three evaluated scales. Age, smoking status, diabetes and hypertension were associated with scores on the Waterlow, Braden and Norton scales. Age, use of the tobacco, diabetes and hypertension were associated with the risk of pressure ulcers in ICU patients.

Skin autofluorescence as proxy of tissue AGE accumulation is dissociated from SCORE cardiovascular risk score, and remains so after 3 years.

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Tiessen, Ans H; Jager, Willemein; ter Bogt, Nancy C W; Beltman, Frank W; van der Meer, Klaas; Broer, Jan; Smit, Andries J

2014-01-01

Skin autofluorescence (SAF), as a proxy of AGE accumulation, is predictive of cardiovascular (CVD) complications in i.a. type 2 diabetes mellitus and renal failure, independently of most conventional CVD risk factors. The present exploratory substudy of the Groningen Overweight and Lifestyle (GOAL)-project addresses whether SAF is related to Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) risk estimation (% 10-year CVD-mortality risk) in overweight/obese persons in primary care, without diabetes/renal disease, and if after 3-year treatment of risk factors (change in, Δ) SAF is related to ΔSCORE. In a sample of 65 participants from the GOAL study, with a body mass index (BMI) >25-40 kg/m2, hypertension and/or dyslipidemia, but without diabetes/renal disease, SAF and CVD risk factors were measured at baseline, and after 3 years of lifestyle and pharmaceutical treatment. At baseline, the mean SCORE risk estimation was 3.1±2.6%, mean SAF 2.04±0.5AU. In multivariate analysis SAF was strongly related to age, but not to other risk factors/SCORE. After 3 years ΔSAF was 0.34±0.45 AU (phistory of CVD compared to 54 persons without CVD (p=0.002). Baseline and 3-year-Δ SAF are not related to (Δ)SCORE, or its components, except age, in the studied population. ΔSAF was negatively related to Δweight. As 3-year SAF was higher in persons with CVD, these results support a larger study on SAF to assess its contribution to conventional risk factors/SCORE in predicting CVD in overweight persons with low-intermediate cardiovascular risk.

Validation of the Framingham general cardiovascular risk score in a multiethnic Asian population: a retrospective cohort study.

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Chia, Yook Chin; Gray, Sarah Yu Weng; Ching, Siew Mooi; Lim, Hooi Min; Chinna, Karuthan

2015-05-19

This study aims to examine the validity of the Framingham general cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk chart in a primary care setting. This is a 10-year retrospective cohort study. A primary care clinic in a teaching hospital in Malaysia. 967 patients' records were randomly selected from patients who were attending follow-up in the clinic. Baseline demographic data, history of diabetes and smoking, blood pressure (BP), and serum lipids were captured from patient records in 1998. Each patient's Framingham CVD score was computed from these parameters. All atherosclerotic CVD events occurring between 1998 and 2007 were counted. In 1998, mean age was 57 years with 33.8% men, 6.1% smokers, 43.3% diabetics and 59.7% hypertensive. Median BP was 140/80 mm Hg and total cholesterol 6.0 mmol/L (1.3). The predicted median Framingham general CVD risk score for the study population was 21.5% (IQR 1.2-30.0) while the actual CVD events that occurred in the 10 years was 13.1% (127/967). The median CVD points for men was 30.0, giving them a CVD risk of more than 30%; for women it is 18.5, a CVD risk of 21.5%. Our study found that the Framingham general CVD risk score to have moderate discrimination with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.63. It also discriminates well for Malay (AUC 0.65, p=0.01), Chinese (AUC 0.60, p=0.03), and Indians (AUC 0.65, p=0.001). There was good calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow test χ(2)=3.25, p=0.78. Taking into account that this cohort of patients were already on treatment, the Framingham General CVD Risk Prediction Score predicts fairly accurately for men and overestimates somewhat for women. In the absence of local risk prediction charts, the Framingham general CVD risk prediction chart is a reasonable alternative for use in a multiethnic group in a primary care setting. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Key performance indicators score (KPIs-score) based on clinical and laboratorial parameters can establish benchmarks for internal quality control in an ART program.

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Franco, José G; Petersen, Claudia G; Mauri, Ana L; Vagnini, Laura D; Renzi, Adriana; Petersen, Bruna; Mattila, M C; Comar, Vanessa A; Ricci, Juliana; Dieamant, Felipe; Oliveira, João Batista A; Baruffi, Ricardo L R

2017-06-01

KPIs have been employed for internal quality control (IQC) in ART. However, clinical KPIs (C-KPIs) such as age, AMH and number of oocytes collected are never added to laboratory KPIs (L-KPIs), such as fertilization rate and morphological quality of the embryos for analysis, even though the final endpoint is the evaluation of clinical pregnancy rates. This paper analyzed if a KPIs-score strategy with clinical and laboratorial parameters could be used to establish benchmarks for IQC in ART cycles. In this prospective cohort study, 280 patients (36.4±4.3years) underwent ART. The total KPIs-score was obtained by the analysis of age, AMH (AMH Gen II ELISA/pre-mixing modified, Beckman Coulter Inc.), number of metaphase-II oocytes, fertilization rates and morphological quality of the embryonic lot. The total KPIs-score (C-KPIs+L-KPIs) was correlated with the presence or absence of clinical pregnancy. The relationship between the C-KPIs and L-KPIs scores was analyzed to establish quality standards, to increase the performance of clinical and laboratorial processes in ART. The logistic regression model (LRM), with respect to pregnancy and total KPIs-score (280 patients/102 clinical pregnancies), yielded an odds ratio of 1.24 (95%CI = 1.16-1.32). There was also a significant difference (pclinical pregnancies (total KPIs-score=20.4±3.7) and the group without clinical pregnancies (total KPIs-score=15.9±5). Clinical pregnancy probabilities (CPP) can be obtained using the LRM (prediction key) with the total KPIs-score as a predictor variable. The mean C-KPIs and L-KPIs scores obtained in the pregnancy group were 11.9±2.9 and 8.5±1.7, respectively. Routinely, in all cases where the C-KPIs score was ≥9, after the procedure, the L-KPIs score obtained was ≤6, a revision of the laboratory procedure was performed to assess quality standards. This total KPIs-score could set up benchmarks for clinical pregnancy. Moreover, IQC can use C-KPIs and L-KPIs scores to detect problems

Alimentary habits, physical activity, and Framingham global risk score in metabolic syndrome.

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Soares, Thays Soliman; Piovesan, Carla Haas; Gustavo, Andréia da Silva; Macagnan, Fabrício Edler; Bodanese, Luiz Carlos; Feoli, Ana Maria Pandolfo

2014-04-01

Metabolic syndrome is a complex disorder represented by a set of cardiovascular risk factors. A healthy lifestyle is strongly related to improve Quality of Life and interfere positively in the control of risk factors presented in this condition. To evaluate the effect of a program of lifestyle modification on the Framingham General Cardiovascular Risk Profile in subjects diagnosed with metabolic syndrome. A sub-analysis study of a randomized clinical trial controlled blind that lasted three months. Participants were randomized into four groups: dietary intervention + placebo (DIP), dietary intervention + supplementation of omega 3 (fish oil 3 g/day) (DIS3), dietary intervention + placebo + physical activity (DIPE) and dietary intervention + physical activity + supplementation of omega 3 (DIS3PE). The general cardiovascular risk profile of each individual was calculated before and after the intervention. The study included 70 subjects. Evaluating the score between the pre and post intervention yielded a significant value (p study emphasizes the importance of lifestyle modification in the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular diseases.

Clinical Risk Scoring Models for Prediction of Acute Kidney Injury after Living Donor Liver Transplantation: A Retrospective Observational Study.

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Mi Hye Park

Full Text Available Acute kidney injury (AKI is a frequent complication of liver transplantation and is associated with increased mortality. We identified the incidence and modifiable risk factors for AKI after living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT and constructed risk scoring models for AKI prediction. We retrospectively reviewed 538 cases of LDLT. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors for the prediction of AKI as defined by the RIFLE criteria (RIFLE = risk, injury, failure, loss, end stage. Three risk scoring models were developed in the retrospective cohort by including all variables that were significant in univariate analysis, or variables that were significant in multivariate analysis by backward or forward stepwise variable selection. The risk models were validated by way of cross-validation. The incidence of AKI was 27.3% (147/538 and 6.3% (34/538 required postoperative renal replacement therapy. Independent risk factors for AKI by multivariate analysis of forward stepwise variable selection included: body-mass index >27.5 kg/m2 [odds ratio (OR 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.32-4.55], serum albumin 20 (OR 2.01, 95%CI 1.17-3.44, operation time >600 min (OR 1.81, 95%CI 1.07-3.06, warm ischemic time >40 min (OR 2.61, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, postreperfusion syndrome (OR 2.96, 95%CI 1.55-4.38, mean blood glucose during the day of surgery >150 mg/dl (OR 1.66, 95%CI 1.01-2.70, cryoprecipitate > 6 units (OR 4.96, 95%CI 2.84-8.64, blood loss/body weight >60 ml/kg (OR 4.05, 95%CI 2.28-7.21, and calcineurin inhibitor use without combined mycophenolate mofetil (OR 1.87, 95%CI 1.14-3.06. Our risk models performed better than did a previously reported score by Utsumi et al. in our study cohort. Doses of calcineurin inhibitor should be reduced by combined use of mycophenolate mofetil to decrease postoperative AKI. Prospective randomized trials are required to address whether artificial modification of hypoalbuminemia, hyperglycemia

Validity Assessment of Low-risk SCORE Function and SCORE Function Calibrated to the Spanish Population in the FRESCO Cohorts.

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Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Subirana, Isaac; Ramos, Rafael; Gómez de la Cámara, Agustín; Elosua, Roberto; Vila, Joan; Marín-Ibáñez, Alejandro; Guembe, María Jesús; Rigo, Fernando; Tormo-Díaz, María José; Moreno-Iribas, Conchi; Cabré, Joan Josep; Segura, Antonio; Lapetra, José; Quesada, Miquel; Medrano, María José; González-Diego, Paulino; Frontera, Guillem; Gavrila, Diana; Ardanaz, Eva; Basora, Josep; García, José María; García-Lareo, Manel; Gutiérrez-Fuentes, José Antonio; Mayoral, Eduardo; Sala, Joan; Dégano, Irene R; Francès, Albert; Castell, Conxa; Grau, María; Marrugat, Jaume

2018-04-01

To assess the validity of the original low-risk SCORE function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and SCORE calibrated to the Spanish population. Pooled analysis with individual data from 12 Spanish population-based cohort studies. We included 30 919 individuals aged 40 to 64 years with no history of cardiovascular disease at baseline, who were followed up for 10 years for the causes of death included in the SCORE project. The validity of the risk functions was analyzed with the area under the ROC curve (discrimination) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (calibration), respectively. Follow-up comprised 286 105 persons/y. Ten-year cardiovascular mortality was 0.6%. The ratio between estimated/observed cases ranged from 9.1, 6.5, and 9.1 in men and 3.3, 1.3, and 1.9 in women with original low-risk SCORE risk function without and with high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and calibrated SCORE, respectively; differences were statistically significant with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test between predicted and observed mortality with SCORE (P cardiovascular mortality observed in the Spanish population. Despite the acceptable discrimination capacity, prediction of the number of fatal cardiovascular events (calibration) was significantly inaccurate. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Risk stratification in cardiovascular disease primary prevention - scoring systems, novel markers, and imaging techniques.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Zannad, Faiez

2012-04-01

The aim of this paper is to review and discuss current methods of risk stratification for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, emerging biomarkers, and imaging techniques, and their relative merits and limitations. This report is based on discussions that took place among experts in the area during a special CardioVascular Clinical Trialists workshop organized by the European Society of Cardiology Working Group on Cardiovascular Pharmacology and Drug Therapy in September 2009. Classical risk factors such as blood pressure and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels remain the cornerstone of risk estimation in primary prevention but their use as a guide to management is limited by several factors: (i) thresholds for drug treatment vary with the available evidence for cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-risk ratios; (ii) assessment may be imprecise; (iii) residual risk may remain, even with effective control of dyslipidemia and hypertension. Novel measures include C-reactive protein, lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A(2) , genetic markers, and markers of subclinical organ damage, for which there are varying levels of evidence. High-resolution ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging to assess carotid atherosclerotic lesions have potential but require further validation, standardization, and proof of clinical usefulness in the general population. In conclusion, classical risk scoring systems are available and inexpensive but have a number of limitations. Novel risk markers and imaging techniques may have a place in drug development and clinical trial design. However, their additional value above and beyond classical risk factors has yet to be determined for risk-guided therapy in CVD prevention.

A risk prediction score for invasive mold disease in patients with hematological malignancies.

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Marta Stanzani

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008 to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. RESULTS: Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of 5% of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99. During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001. CONCLUSION: An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate "screening-out" of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis.

A novel clinically relevant segmentation method and corresponding maximal ischemia score to risk-stratify patients undergoing myocardial perfusion scintigraphy.

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Nudi, Francesco; Pinto, Annamaria; Procaccini, Enrica; Neri, Giandomenico; Vetere, Maurizio; Tomai, Fabrizio; Gaspardone, Achille; Biondi-Zoccai, Giuseppe; Schillaci, Orazio

2014-08-01

Myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) represents a key prognostic tool, but its predictive yield is far from perfect. We developed a novel clinically relevant segmentation method and a corresponding maximal ischemia score (MIS) in order to risk-stratify patients undergoing MPS. Patients referred for MPS were identified, excluding those with evidence of myocardial necrosis or prior revascularization. A seven-region segmentation approach was adopted for left ventricular myocardium, with a corresponding MIS distinguishing five groups (no, minimal, mild, moderate, or severe ischemia). The association between MIS and clinical events was assessed at 1 year and at long-term follow-up. A total of 8,714 patients were included, with a clinical follow-up of 31 ± 20 months. Unadjusted analyses showed that subjects with a higher MIS were significantly different for several baseline and test data, being older, having lower ejection fraction, and achieving lower workloads (P < .05 for all). Adverse outcomes were also more frequent in patients with higher levels of ischemia, including cardiac death, myocardial infarction (MI), and their composites (P < .05 for all). Differences in adverse events remained significant even after extensive multivariable adjustment (hazard ratio for each MIS increment = 1.57 [1.29-1.90], P < .001 for cardiac death; 1.19 [1.04-1.36], P = .013 for MI; 1.23 [1.09-1.39], P = .001 for cardiac death/MI). Our novel segmentation method and corresponding MIS efficiently yield satisfactory prognostic information.

Risk-adjusted scoring systems in colorectal surgery.

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Leung, Edmund; McArdle, Kirsten; Wong, Ling S

2011-01-01

Consequent to recent advances in surgical techniques and management, survival rate has increased substantially over the last 25 years, particularly in colorectal cancer patients. However, post-operative morbidity and mortality from colorectal cancer vary widely across the country. Therefore, standardised outcome measures are emphasised not only for professional accountability, but also for comparison between treatment units and regions. In a heterogeneous population, the use of crude mortality as an outcome measure for patients undergoing surgery is simply misleading. Meaningful comparisons, however, require accurate risk stratification of patients being analysed before conclusions can be reached regarding the outcomes recorded. Sub-specialised colorectal surgical units usually dedicated to more complex and high-risk operations. The need for accurate risk prediction is necessary in these units as both mortality and morbidity often are tools to justify the practice of high-risk surgery. The Acute Physiology And Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) is a system for classifying patients in the intensive care unit. However, APACHE score was considered too complex for general surgical use. The American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade has been considered useful as an adjunct to informed consent and for monitoring surgical performance through time. ASA grade is simple but too subjective. The Physiological & Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) and its variant Portsmouth POSSUM (P-POSSUM) were devised to predict outcomes in surgical patients in general, taking into account of the variables in the case-mix. POSSUM has two parts, which include assessment of physiological parameters and operative scores. There are 12 physiological parameters and 6 operative measures. The physiological parameters are taken at the time of surgery. Each physiological parameter or operative variable is sub-divided into three or four levels with

AN OBSERVATIONAL CLINICAL STUDY OF ASSESSING THE UTILITY OF PSS (POISON SEVERITY SCORE AND GCS (GLASGOW COMA SCALE SCORING SYSTEMS IN PREDICTING SEVERITY AND CLINICAL OUTCOMES IN OP POISONING

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S. Chandrasekhar

2017-05-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND Organophosphorus compound poisoning is the most common poisonings in India because of easy availability often requiring ICU care and ventilator support. Clinical research has indicated that respiratory failure is the most important cause of death due to organophosphorus poisoning. It results in respiratory muscle weakness, pulmonary oedema, respiratory depression, increased secretions and bronchospasm. These complications and death can be prevented with timely institution of ventilator support. MATERIALS AND METHODS Hundred consecutive patients admitted with a history of organophosphorus poisoning at Kurnool Medical College, Kurnool, were taken for study after considering the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Detailed history, confirmation of poisoning, examination and other than routine investigations, serum pseudocholinesterase and arterial blood gas analysis was done. The severity and clinical outcomes in OP poisoning is graded by PSS (poison severity score and GCS (Glasgow coma scale scoring systems. RESULTS This study was conducted in 100 patients with male preponderance. Majority of poisoning occurred in 21-30 age group (n=5. Most common compound consumed in our study was methyl parathion and least common was phosphoran. Slightly more than half of the patients consumed less than 50 mL of poison. 21 patients consumed between 50 to 100 mL. Distribution of poison severity score of patients studied showed 45 cases of grade 1 poisoning. 26 cases of grade 2 poisoning, 23 cases of grade 3 poisoning and 6 cases of grade 4 poisoning (death within first 24 hours. Distribution of GCS score of patients studied GCS scores were <10 in 25 patients at admission and 24 patients after 24 hours. GCS scores were ≥10 in 75 patients at admission and 76 patients after 24 hours. Poison severity score is not prognostic, but merely defines severity of OP poisoning at a given time. CONCLUSION Both Glasgow coma scale and poison severity scoring systems

Improvement of Risk Prediction After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement by Combining Frailty With Conventional Risk Scores.

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Schoenenberger, Andreas W; Moser, André; Bertschi, Dominic; Wenaweser, Peter; Windecker, Stephan; Carrel, Thierry; Stuck, Andreas E; Stortecky, Stefan

2018-02-26

This study sought to evaluate whether frailty improves mortality prediction in combination with the conventional scores. European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) or Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) score have not been evaluated in combined models with frailty for mortality prediction after transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). This prospective cohort comprised 330 consecutive TAVR patients ≥70 years of age. Conventional scores and a frailty index (based on assessment of cognition, mobility, nutrition, and activities of daily living) were evaluated to predict 1-year all-cause mortality using Cox proportional hazards regression (providing hazard ratios [HRs] with confidence intervals [CIs]) and measures of test performance (providing likelihood ratio [LR] chi-square test statistic and C-statistic [CS]). All risk scores were predictive of the outcome (EuroSCORE, HR: 1.90 [95% CI: 1.45 to 2.48], LR chi-square test statistic 19.29, C-statistic 0.67; STS score, HR: 1.51 [95% CI: 1.21 to 1.88], LR chi-square test statistic 11.05, C-statistic 0.64; frailty index, HR: 3.29 [95% CI: 1.98 to 5.47], LR chi-square test statistic 22.28, C-statistic 0.66). A combination of the frailty index with either EuroSCORE (LR chi-square test statistic 38.27, C-statistic 0.72) or STS score (LR chi-square test statistic 28.71, C-statistic 0.68) improved mortality prediction. The frailty index accounted for 58.2% and 77.6% of the predictive information in the combined model with EuroSCORE and STS score, respectively. Net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement confirmed that the added frailty index improved risk prediction. This is the first study showing that the assessment of frailty significantly enhances prediction of 1-year mortality after TAVR in combined risk models with conventional risk scores and relevantly contributes to this improvement. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation

Introducing a prognostic score for pretherapeutic assessment of seminal vesicle invasion in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salomon, Laurent; Porcher, Raphaeel; Anastasiadis, Aristotelis G.; Levrel, Olivier; Saint, Fabian; Taille, Alexandre de la; Vordos, Dimitrios; Cicco, Antony; Hoznek, Andras; Chopin, Dominique; Abbou, Clement-Claude; Lagrange, Jean-Leon

2003-01-01

Purpose: To identify prostate cancer patients who will have the most likely benefit from sparing the seminal vesicles during 3D conformal radiation therapy. Methods and materials: From 1988 to 2001, 532 patients underwent radical prostatectomy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Primary endpoint was the pathological evidence of seminal vesicle invasion. Variables for univariate and multivariate analyses were age, prostate weight, clinical stage, PSA level, Gleason score, number and site of positive prostate sextant biopsies. Multivariate logistic regression with backward stepwise variable selection was used to identify a set of independent predictors of seminal vesicle invasion, and the variable selection procedure was validated by non-parametric bootstrap. Results: Seminal vesicle invasion was reported in 14% of the cases. In univariate analysis, all variables except age and prostate weight were predictors of seminal vesicle invasion. In multivariate analysis, only the number of positive biopsies (P<0.0001), Gleason score (P<0.007) and PSA (P<0.0001) were predictors for seminal vesicles invasion. Based on the multivariate model, we were able to develop a prognostic score for seminal vesicle invasion, which allowed us to discriminate two patient groups: A group with low risk of seminal vesicles invasion (5.7%), and the second with a higher risk of seminal vesicles invasion (32.7%). Conclusions: Using the number of positive biopsies, Gleason score and PSA, it is possible to identify patients with low risk of seminal vesicles invasion. In this population, seminal vesicles might be excluded as a target volume in radiation therapy of prostate cancer

Analysis of Surgical Site Infection after Musculoskeletal Tumor Surgery: Risk Assessment Using a New Scoring System

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Satoshi Nagano

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Surgical site infection (SSI has not been extensively studied in musculoskeletal tumors (MST owing to the rarity of the disease. We analyzed incidence and risk factors of SSI in MST. SSI incidence was evaluated in consecutive 457 MST cases (benign, 310 cases and malignant, 147 cases treated at our institution. A detailed analysis of the clinical background of the patients, pre- and postoperative hematological data, and other factors that might be associated with SSI incidence was performed for malignant MST cases. SSI occurred in 0.32% and 12.2% of benign and malignant MST cases, respectively. The duration of the surgery (P=0.0002 and intraoperative blood loss (P=0.0005 was significantly more in the SSI group than in the non-SSI group. We established the musculoskeletal oncological surgery invasiveness (MOSI index by combining 4 risk factors (blood loss, operation duration, preoperative chemotherapy, and the use of artificial materials. The MOSI index (0–4 points score significantly correlated with the risk of SSI, as demonstrated by an SSI incidence of 38.5% in the group with a high score (3-4 points. The MOSI index score and laboratory data at 1 week after surgery could facilitate risk evaluation and prompt diagnosis of SSI.

Association of mallampatti score as a risk factor for obstructive sleep apnea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naqvi, S.U.; Shahab, A.; Zia, S.; Adil, S.O.; Tariq, S.

2017-01-01

Objectives: To determine the association of Mallampatti Score as a risk factor for Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA). Methodology: This is a prospective questionnaire based survey included 103 individuals Results: Mean BMI of patients was 23.83+-6.03 kg/m2. There were 28 (27.2%) overweight and 22 (21.4%) obese patients. High risk on Berlin questionnaire was found in 12 (11.7%) patients. Both Berlin Questionnaire and Epworth questioner showed a negative association with Mallampati; the low risk group of these variables in our study with a p-value of 0.034 and 0.016 respectively i.e they are good for exclusion of OSA if found negative. Comparison of general characteristics with Mallampatti score and snoring showed significant association among patients with >25 years of age (p=0.02), low risk of Berlin score (p=0.034) and normal Epworth Sleep Score (p=0.016). Fifteen (14.5%) of overweight and obese individuals had higher Mallampatti score III and lV but the P-values were not significant (0.283 and 0.386). Conclusion: There is strong association between high Mallampatti score and O.S.A. Therefore we suggest that high mallampatti can be taken as a risk factor / screening tool limitation for O.S.A. (author)

Clinical utility of the HEART score in patients admitted with chest pain to an inner-city hospital in the USA.

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Patnaik, Soumya; Shah, Mahek; Alhamshari, Yaser; Ram, Pradhum; Puri, Ritika; Lu, Marvin; Balderia, Percy; Imms, John B; Maludum, Obiora; Figueredo, Vincent M

2017-06-01

Chest pain is one of the most common presentations to a hospital, and appropriate triaging of these patients can be challenging. The HEART score has been used for such purposes in some countries and only a few validation studies from the USA are available. We aim to determine the utility of the HEART score in patients presenting with chest pain to an inner-city hospital in the USA. We retrospectively screened 417 consecutive patients admitted with chest pain to the observation/telemetry units at Einstein Medical Center Philadelphia. After applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, 299 patients were included in the analysis. Patients were divided into low-risk (0-3) and intermediate-high (≥4)-risk HEART score groups. Baseline characteristics, thrombolysis in myocardial infarction score, need for revascularization during index hospitalization, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) at 6 weeks and 12 months were recorded. There were 98 and 201 patients in the low-score group and intermediate-high-score group, respectively. Compared with the low-score group, patients in the intermediate-high-risk group had a higher incidence of revascularization during the index hospital stay (16.4 vs. 0%; P=0.001), longer hospital stay, higher MACE at 6 weeks (9.5 vs. 0%) and 12 months (20.4 vs. 3.1%), and higher cardiac readmissions. HEART score of at least 4 independently predicted MACE at 12 months (odds ratio 7.456, 95% confidence interval: 2.175-25.56; P=0.001) after adjusting for other risk factors in regression analysis. HEART score of at least 4 was predictive of worse outcomes in patients with chest pain in an inner-city USA hospital. If validated in multicenter prospective studies, the HEART score could potentially be useful in risk-stratifying patients presenting with chest pain in the USA and could impact clinical decision-making.

Comparison of the MASCC and CISNE scores for identifying low-risk neutropenic fever patients: analysis of data from three emergency departments of cancer centers in three continents.

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Ahn, Shin; Rice, Terry W; Yeung, Sai-Ching J; Cooksley, Tim

2018-05-01

Patients with febrile neutropenia are a heterogeneous group with a minority developing serious medical complications. Outpatient management of low-risk febrile neutropenia has been shown to be safe and cost-effective. Scoring systems, such as the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) score and Clinical Index of Stable Febrile Neutropenia (CISNE), have been developed and validated to identify low-risk patients. We aimed to compare the performance of these two scores in identifying low-risk febrile neutropenic patients. We performed a pooled analysis of patients presenting with febrile neutropenia to three tertiary cancer emergency centers in the USA, UK, and South Korea in 2015. The primary outcome measures were the occurrence of serious complications. Admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) and 30-day mortality were secondary outcomes. The predictive performance of each score was analyzed. Five hundred seventy-one patients presented with febrile neutropenia. With MASCC risk index, 508 (89.1%) were classified as low-risk febrile neutropenia, compared to 60 (10.5%) with CISNE classification. Overall, the MASCC score had a greater discriminatory power in the detection of low-risk patients than the CISNE score (AUC 0.772, 95% CI 0.726-0.819 vs. 0.681, 95% CI 0.626-0.737, p = 0.0024). Both MASCC and CISNE scores have reasonable discriminatory value in predicting patients with low-risk febrile neutropenia. Risk scores should be used in conjunction with clinical judgment for the identification of patients suitable for outpatient management of neutropenic fever. Developing more accurate scores, validated in prospective settings, will be useful in facilitating more patients being managed in an outpatient setting.

Adjuvant therapy after resection of colorectal liver metastases: the predictive value of the MSKCC clinical risk score in the era of modern chemotherapy.

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Rahbari, Nuh N; Reissfelder, Christoph; Schulze-Bergkamen, Henning; Jäger, Dirk; Büchler, Markus W; Weitz, Jürgen; Koch, Moritz

2014-03-11

Despite introduction of effective chemotherapy protocols, it has remained uncertain, if patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) liver metastases should receive adjuvant therapy. Clinical or molecular predictors may help to select patients at high risk for disease recurrence and death who obtain a survival advantage by adjuvant chemotherapy. A total of 297 patients with potentially curative resection of CRC liver metastases were analyzed. These patients had no neoadjuvant therapy, no extrahepatic disease and negative resection margins. The primary endpoint was overall survival. Patients' risk status was evaluated using the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center clinical risk score (MSKCC-CRS). Multivariable analyses were performed using Cox proportional hazard models. A total of 137 (43%) patients had a MSKCC-CRS > 2. Adjuvant chemotherapy was administered to 116 (37%) patients. Patients who received adjuvant chemotherapy were of younger age (p = 0.03) with no significant difference in the presence of multiple metastases (p = 0.72) or bilobar metastases (p = 0.08). On multivariate analysis adjuvant chemotherapy was associated with improved survival in the entire cohort (Hazard ratio 0.69; 95% confidence interval 0.69-0.98). It improved survival markedly in high-risk patients with a MSKCC-CRS > 2 (HR 0.40; 95% CI 0.23-0.69), whereas it was of no benefit in patients with a MSKCC-CRS ≤ 2 (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.57-1.43). The MSKCC-CRS offers a tool to select patients for adjuvant therapy after resection of CRC liver metastases. Validation in independent patient cohorts is required.

Identifying patients with less potential to benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator therapy: comparison of the performance of four risk scoring systems.

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Kaura, Amit; Sunderland, Nicholas; Kamdar, Ravi; Petzer, Edward; McDonagh, Theresa; Murgatroyd, Francis; Dhillon, Para; Scott, Paul

2017-08-01

Patients at high non-sudden cardiac death risk may gain no significant benefit from implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapy. A number of approaches have been proposed to identify these patients, including single clinical markers and more complex scoring systems. The aims of this study were to use the proposed scoring systems to (1) establish how many current ICD recipients may be too high risk to derive significant benefit from ICD therapy and (2) evaluate how well the scoring systems predict short-term mortality in an unselected ICD cohort. We performed a single-centre retrospective observational study of all new ICD implants over 5 years (2009-2013). We used four published scoring systems (Bilchick, Goldenberg, Kramer and Parkash) and serum urea to identify new ICD recipients whose short-term predicted mortality risk was high. We evaluated how well the scoring systems predicted death. Over 5 years, there were 406 new implants (79% male, mean age 70 (60-76), 58% primary prevention). During a follow-up of 936 ± 560 days, 96 patients died. Using the scoring systems, the proportion of ICD recipients predicted to be at high short-term mortality risk were 5.9% (Bilchick), 34.7% (Goldenberg), 7.4% (Kramer), 21.4% (Parkash) and 25% (urea, cut-off of >9.28 mM). All four risk scores predicted mortality (P systems, a significant proportion of current ICD recipients are at high short-term mortality risk. Although all four scoring systems predicted mortality during follow-up, none significantly outperformed serum urea.

[Determination of prognostic value of the OESIL risk score at 6 months in a Colombian cohort with syncope evaluated in the emergency department; first Latin American experience].

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Díaz-Tribaldos, Diana Carolina; Mora, Guillermo; Olaya, Alejandro; Marín, Jorge; Sierra Matamoros, Fabio

2017-07-14

To establish the prognostic value, with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the OESIL syncope risk score to predict the presentation of severe outcomes (death, invasive interventions, and readmission) after 6 months of observation in adults who consulted the emergency department due to syncope. Observational, prospective, and multicentre study with enrolment of subjects older than 18 years, who consulted in the emergency department due to syncope. A record was mad of the demographic and clinical information of all patients. The OESIL risk score was calculated, and severe patient outcomes were followed up during a 6 month period using telephone contact. A total of 161 patients met the inclusion criteria and were followed up for 6 months. A score above or equal to 2 in the risk score, classified as high risk, was present in 72% of the patients. The characteristics of the risk score to predict the combined outcome of mortality, invasive interventions, and readmission for a score above or equal to 2 were 75.7, 30.5, 43.1, and 64.4% for sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value, respectively. A score above or equal to 2 in the OESIL risk score applied in Colombian population was of limited use to predict the studied severe outcomes. This score will be unable to discriminate between patients that benefit of early admission and further clinical studies. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

Enhanced clinical pharmacy service targeting tools: risk-predictive algorithms.

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El Hajji, Feras W D; Scullin, Claire; Scott, Michael G; McElnay, James C

2015-04-01

This study aimed to determine the value of using a mix of clinical pharmacy data and routine hospital admission spell data in the development of predictive algorithms. Exploration of risk factors in hospitalized patients, together with the targeting strategies devised, will enable the prioritization of clinical pharmacy services to optimize patient outcomes. Predictive algorithms were developed using a number of detailed steps using a 75% sample of integrated medicines management (IMM) patients, and validated using the remaining 25%. IMM patients receive targeted clinical pharmacy input throughout their hospital stay. The algorithms were applied to the validation sample, and predicted risk probability was generated for each patient from the coefficients. Risk threshold for the algorithms were determined by identifying the cut-off points of risk scores at which the algorithm would have the highest discriminative performance. Clinical pharmacy staffing levels were obtained from the pharmacy department staffing database. Numbers of previous emergency admissions and admission medicines together with age-adjusted co-morbidity and diuretic receipt formed a 12-month post-discharge and/or readmission risk algorithm. Age-adjusted co-morbidity proved to be the best index to predict mortality. Increased numbers of clinical pharmacy staff at ward level was correlated with a reduction in risk-adjusted mortality index (RAMI). Algorithms created were valid in predicting risk of in-hospital and post-discharge mortality and risk of hospital readmission 3, 6 and 12 months post-discharge. The provision of ward-based clinical pharmacy services is a key component to reducing RAMI and enabling the full benefits of pharmacy input to patient care to be realized. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

fMRI investigation of response inhibition, emotion, impulsivity, and clinical high-risk behaviour in adolescents

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Matthew R G Brown

2015-09-01

Full Text Available High-risk behaviour in adolescents is associated with injury, mental health problems, and poor outcomes in later life. Improved understanding of the neurobiology of high-risk behaviour and impulsivity shows promise for informing clinical treatment and prevention as well as policy to better address high-risk behaviour. We recruited 21 adolescents (age 14-17 with a wide range of high-risk behaviour tendencies, including medically high-risk participants recruited from psychiatric clinics. Risk tendencies were assessed using the Adolescent Risk Behaviour Screen (ARBS. ARBS risk scores correlated highly (0.78 with impulsivity scores from the Barratt Impulsivity scale (BIS. Participants underwent 4.7 Tesla functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI while performing an emotional Go/NoGo task. This task presented an aversive or neutral distractor image simultaneously with each Go or NoGo stimulus. Risk behaviour and impulsivity tendencies exhibited similar but not identical associations with fMRI activation patterns in prefrontal brain regions. We interpret these results as reflecting differences in response inhibition, emotional stimulus processing, and emotion regulation in relation to participant risk behaviour tendencies and impulsivity levels. The results are consistent with high impulsivity playing an important role in determining high risk tendencies in this sample containing clinically high-risk adolescents.

fMRI investigation of response inhibition, emotion, impulsivity, and clinical high-risk behavior in adolescents.

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Brown, Matthew R G; Benoit, James R A; Juhás, Michal; Dametto, Ericson; Tse, Tiffanie T; MacKay, Marnie; Sen, Bhaskar; Carroll, Alan M; Hodlevskyy, Oleksandr; Silverstone, Peter H; Dolcos, Florin; Dursun, Serdar M; Greenshaw, Andrew J

2015-01-01

High-risk behavior in adolescents is associated with injury, mental health problems, and poor outcomes in later life. Improved understanding of the neurobiology of high-risk behavior and impulsivity shows promise for informing clinical treatment and prevention as well as policy to better address high-risk behavior. We recruited 21 adolescents (age 14-17) with a wide range of high-risk behavior tendencies, including medically high-risk participants recruited from psychiatric clinics. Risk tendencies were assessed using the Adolescent Risk Behavior Screen (ARBS). ARBS risk scores correlated highly (0.78) with impulsivity scores from the Barratt Impulsivity scale (BIS). Participants underwent 4.7 Tesla functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) while performing an emotional Go/NoGo task. This task presented an aversive or neutral distractor image simultaneously with each Go or NoGo stimulus. Risk behavior and impulsivity tendencies exhibited similar but not identical associations with fMRI activation patterns in prefrontal brain regions. We interpret these results as reflecting differences in response inhibition, emotional stimulus processing, and emotion regulation in relation to participant risk behavior tendencies and impulsivity levels. The results are consistent with high impulsivity playing an important role in determining high risk tendencies in this sample containing clinically high-risk adolescents.

Distinct multivariate brain morphological patterns and their added predictive value with cognitive and polygenic risk scores in mental disorders

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Nhat Trung Doan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The brain underpinnings of schizophrenia and bipolar disorders are multidimensional, reflecting complex pathological processes and causal pathways, requiring multivariate techniques to disentangle. Furthermore, little is known about the complementary clinical value of brain structural phenotypes when combined with data on cognitive performance and genetic risk. Using data-driven fusion of cortical thickness, surface area, and gray matter density maps (GMD, we found six biologically meaningful patterns showing strong group effects, including four statistically independent multimodal patterns reflecting co-occurring alterations in thickness and GMD in patients, over and above two other independent patterns of widespread thickness and area reduction. Case-control classification using cognitive scores alone revealed high accuracy, and adding imaging features or polygenic risk scores increased performance, suggesting their complementary predictive value with cognitive scores being the most sensitive features. Multivariate pattern analyses reveal distinct patterns of brain morphology in mental disorders, provide insights on the relative importance between brain structure, cognitive and polygenetic risk score in classification of patients, and demonstrate the importance of multivariate approaches in studying the pathophysiological substrate of these complex disorders.

The prediction of the in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients by electrocardiogram (ECG) dispersion mapping compared with established risk factors and predictive scores--a pilot study.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Kellett, John

2011-08-01

ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM) is a novel technique that analyzes low amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI). This study compared the ability of ECG-DM to predict in-hospital mortality with traditional risk factors such as age, vital signs and co-morbid diagnoses, as well as three predictive scores: the Simple Clinical Score (SCS)--based on clinical and ECG findings, and two Medical Admission Risk System scores--one based on vital signs and laboratory data (MARS), and one only on laboratory data (LD).

Setting pass scores for clinical skills assessment.

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Liu, Min; Liu, Keh-Min

2008-12-01

In a clinical skills assessment, the decision to pass or fail an examinee should be based on the test content or on the examinees' performance. The process of deciding a pass score is known as setting a standard of the examination. This requires a properly selected panel of expert judges and a suitable standard setting method, which best fits the purpose of the examination. Six standard setting methods that are often used in clinical skills assessment are described to provide an overview of the standard setting process.

A Posterior Circulation Ischemia Risk Score System to Assist the Diagnosis of Dizziness.

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Chen, Ru; Su, Rui; Deng, Mingzhu; Liu, Jia; Hu, Qing; Song, Zhi

2018-02-01

We aimed to establish a risk score system without radio-image examination, which could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and posterior circulation ischemia (PCI) rapidly from the other dizzy patients. We analyzed 304 patients with vertigo (50% PCI). The attributes with more significant contributions were selected as the risk factors for the PCI risk score system, and every one of them was assigned a value according to their respective odds ratio values. We also compared the respective receiver operating characteristic curves of the 3 diagnostic methods (PCI score system, ABCD 2 , and Essen score systems) to evaluate their prediction effectiveness. Nine risk factors were ultimately selected for PCI score system, including high blood pressure (1'), diabetes mellitus (1'), ischemic stroke (1'), rotating and rocking (-1'), difficulty in speech (5'), tinnitus (-5'), limb and sensory deficit (5'), gait ataxia (1'), and limb ataxia (5'). According to their respective PCI risk scores, the patients were divided into 3 subgroups: low risk (≤0', risk 95.0%). When 0' was selected as a cutoff point for differentiating the patients with PCI from patients without PCI, the sensitivity was 94.1%, with a specificity of 41.4%. The areas under the receiver operator curve value of PCI score system was .82 (P = .000), much higher than the areas under the receiver operator curve value of ABCD 2 (.69, P = .000) and that of the Essen system (.67, P = .000) CONCLUSION: The PCI score system could help clinicians to differentiate patients with vertigo and PCI rapidly from the other dizzy patients. Copyright © 2018 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NBME subject examination in surgery scores correlate with surgery clerkship clinical experience.

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Myers, Jonathan A; Vigneswaran, Yalini; Gabryszak, Beth; Fogg, Louis F; Francescatti, Amanda B; Golner, Christine; Bines, Steven D

2014-01-01

Most medical schools in the United States use the National Board of Medical Examiners Subject Examinations as a method of at least partial assessment of student performance, yet there is still uncertainty of how well these examination scores correlate with clinical proficiency. Thus, we investigated which factors in a surgery clerkship curriculum have a positive effect on academic achievement on the National Board of Medical Examiners Subject Examination in Surgery. A retrospective analysis of 83 third-year medical students at our institution with 4 unique clinical experiences on the general surgery clerkship for the 2007-2008 academic year was conducted. Records of the United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 scores, National Board of Medical Examiners Subject Examination in Surgery scores, and essay examination scores for the groups were compared using 1-way analysis of variance testing. Rush University Medical Center, Chicago IL, an academic institution and tertiary care center. Our data demonstrated National Board of Medical Examiners Subject Examination in Surgery scores from the group with the heavier clinical loads and least time for self-study were statistically higher than the group with lighter clinical services and higher rated self-study time (p = 0.036). However, there was no statistical difference of National Board of Medical Examiners Subject Examination in Surgery scores between the groups with equal clinical loads (p = 0.751). Students experiencing higher clinical volumes on surgical services, but less self-study time demonstrated statistically higher academic performance on objective evaluation, suggesting clinical experience may be of higher value than self-study and reading. Copyright © 2014 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting Neisseria gonorrhoeae and Chlamydia trachomatis infection using risk scores, physical examination, microscopy, and leukocyte esterase urine dipsticks among asymptomatic women attending a family planning clinic in Kenya.

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Tyndall, M W; Kidula, N; Sande, J; Ombette, J; Temmerman, M

1999-09-01

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) continue to exert a tremendous health burden on women in developing countries. Poor socioeconomic status, inadequate knowledge, lack of diagnostic facilities, and shortages of effective treatment all contribute to the high incidence of STIs. The use of clinical algorithms for the detection and management of STIs has gained widespread acceptance in settings where there are limited resources. Evaluation of these algorithms have been few, especially in women who are not recognized as members of high-risk groups. To develop a simple scoring system based on historical and demographic data, physical findings, microscopy, and leukocyte esterase (LE) urine dipsticks to predict cervical gonococcal and chlamydial infection among asymptomatic women. One thousand and forty-eight women attending an urban family planning clinic in Nairobi were randomly selected to participate. After the identification of factors that were associated with infection, we assigned one point each for: age 25 or younger, single status, two or more sex partners in the past year, cervical discharge, cervical swab leukocytes, and a positive LE urine dipstick. Identification of any one of these six factors gave a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 30% for the detection of cervical infections. A positive LE urine dipstick had a sensitivity of 63 % and a specificity of 47% when used alone and did not contribute to the identification of infection if a physical examination was performed. The application of existing clinical algorithms to this population performed poorly. The use of risk scores, physical examination, microscopy, and the urine LE dipstick, used alone or in combination, as predictors of gonococcal or chlamydial cervical infection was of limited utility in low-risk, asymptomatic women. Accurate diagnostic testing is necessary to optimize treatment.

Comparison of the HEART and TIMI Risk Scores for Suspected Acute Coronary Syndrome in the Emergency Department.

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Sun, Benjamin C; Laurie, Amber; Fu, Rongwei; Ferencik, Maros; Shapiro, Michael; Lindsell, Christopher J; Diercks, Deborah; Hoekstra, James W; Hollander, Judd E; Kirk, J Douglas; Peacock, W Frank; Anantharaman, Venkataraman; Pollack, Charles V

2016-03-01

The emergency department evaluation for suspected acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is common, costly, and challenging. Risk scores may help standardize clinical care and screening for research studies. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and HEART are two commonly cited risk scores. We tested the null hypothesis that the TIMI and HEART risk scores have equivalent test characteristics. We analyzed data from the Internet Tracking Registry of Acute Coronary Syndromes (i*trACS) from 9 EDs on patients with suspected ACS, 1999-2001. We excluded patients with an emergency department diagnosis consistent with ACS, or without sufficient data to calculate TIMI and HEART scores. The primary outcome was 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events, including all-cause death, acute myocardial infarction, and urgent revascularization. We describe test characteristics of the TIMI and HEART risk scores. The study cohort included 8255 patients with 508 (6.2%) 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events. Receiver operating curve and reclassification analyses favored HEART [c statistic: 0.753, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.733-0.773; continuous net reclassification improvement: 0.608, 95% CI: 0.527-0.689] over TIMI (c statistic: 0.678, 95% CI: 0.655-0.702). A HEART score 0-3 [negative predictive value (NPV) 0.982, 95% CI: 0.978-0.986; positive predictive value (PPV) 0.103, 95% CI: 0.094-0.113; likelihood ratio (LR) positive 1.76; LR negative 0.28] demonstrates similar or superior NPV/PPV/LR compared with TIMI = 0 (NPV 0.978, 95% CI: 0.971-0.983; PPV 0.077, 95% CI: 0.071-0.084; LR positive 1.28; LR negative 0.35) and TIMI = 0-1 (NPV 0.963, 95% CI: 0.958-0.968; PPV 0.102, 95% CI: 0.092-0.113; LR positive 1.73; LR negative 0.58). The HEART score has better discrimination than TIMI and outperforms TIMI within previously published "low-risk" categories.

Comparison of RISK-PCI, GRACE, TIMI risk scores for prediction of major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

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Jakimov, Tamara; Mrdović, Igor; Filipović, Branka; Zdravković, Marija; Djoković, Aleksandra; Hinić, Saša; Milić, Nataša; Filipović, Branislav

2017-12-31

To compare the prognostic performance of three major risk scoring systems including global registry for acute coronary events (GRACE), thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI), and prediction of 30-day major adverse cardiovascular events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention (RISK-PCI). This single-center retrospective study involved 200 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who underwent invasive diagnostic approach, ie, coronary angiography and myocardial revascularization if appropriate, in the period from January 2014 to July 2014. The GRACE, TIMI, and RISK-PCI risk scores were compared for their predictive ability. The primary endpoint was a composite 30-day major adverse cardiovascular event (MACE), which included death, urgent target-vessel revascularization (TVR), stroke, and non-fatal recurrent myocardial infarction (REMI). The c-statistics of the tested scores for 30-day MACE or area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) with confidence intervals (CI) were as follows: RISK-PCI (AUC=0.94; 95% CI 1.790-4.353), the GRACE score on admission (AUC=0.73; 95% CI 1.013-1.045), the GRACE score on discharge (AUC=0.65; 95% CI 0.999-1.033). The RISK-PCI score was the only score that could predict TVR (AUC=0.91; 95% CI 1.392-2.882). The RISK-PCI scoring system showed an excellent discriminative potential for 30-day death (AUC=0.96; 95% CI 1.339-3.548) in comparison with the GRACE scores on admission (AUC=0.88; 95% CI 1.018-1.072) and on discharge (AUC=0.78; 95% CI 1.000-1.058). In comparison with the GRACE and TIMI scores, RISK-PCI score showed a non-inferior ability to predict 30-day MACE and death in ACS patients. Moreover, RISK-PCI was the only scoring system that could predict recurrent ischemia requiring TVR.

Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

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Leonardo Sinnott Silva

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Development and validation of a risk score for hospitalization for heart failure in patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

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Lam Christopher W

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background There are no risk scores available for predicting heart failure in Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM. Based on the Hong Kong Diabetes Registry, this study aimed to develop and validate a risk score for predicting heart failure that needs hospitalisation in T2DM. Methods 7067 Hong Kong Chinese diabetes patients without history of heart failure, and without history and clinical evidence of coronary heart disease at baseline were analyzed. The subjects have been followed up for a median period of 5.5 years. Data were randomly and evenly assigned to a training dataset and a test dataset. Sex-stratified Cox proportional hazard regression was used to obtain predictors of HF-related hospitalization in the training dataset. Calibration was assessed using Hosmer-Lemeshow test and discrimination was examined using the area under receiver's operating characteristic curve (aROC in the test dataset. Results During the follow-up, 274 patients developed heart failure event/s that needed hospitalisation. Age, body mass index (BMI, spot urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR, HbA1c, blood haemoglobin (Hb at baseline and coronary heart disease during follow-up were predictors of HF-related hospitalization in the training dataset. HF-related hospitalization risk score = 0.0709 × age (year + 0.0627 × BMI (kg/m2 + 0.1363 × HbA1c(% + 0.9915 × Log10(1+ACR (mg/mmol - 0.3606 × Blood Hb(g/dL + 0.8161 × CHD during follow-up (1 if yes. The 5-year probability of heart failure = 1-S0(5EXP{0.9744 × (Risk Score - 2.3961}. Where S0(5 = 0.9888 if male and 0.9809 if female. The predicted and observed 5-year probabilities of HF-related hospitalization were similar (p > 0.20 and the adjusted aROC was 0.920 for 5 years of follow-up. Conclusion The risk score had adequate performance. Further validations in other cohorts of patients with T2DM are needed before clinical use.

Interrater reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide scores provided in Canadian criminal proceedings.

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Edens, John F; Penson, Brittany N; Ruchensky, Jared R; Cox, Jennifer; Smith, Shannon Toney

2016-12-01

Published research suggests that most violence risk assessment tools have relatively high levels of interrater reliability, but recent evidence of inconsistent scores among forensic examiners in adversarial settings raises concerns about the "field reliability" of such measures. This study specifically examined the reliability of Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) scores in Canadian criminal cases identified in the legal database, LexisNexis. Over 250 reported cases were located that made mention of the VRAG, with 42 of these cases containing 2 or more scores that could be submitted to interrater reliability analyses. Overall, scores were skewed toward higher risk categories. The intraclass correlation (ICCA1) was .66, with pairs of forensic examiners placing defendants into the same VRAG risk "bin" in 68% of the cases. For categorical risk statements (i.e., low, moderate, high), examiners provided converging assessment results in most instances (86%). In terms of potential predictors of rater disagreement, there was no evidence for adversarial allegiance in our sample. Rater disagreement in the scoring of 1 VRAG item (Psychopathy Checklist-Revised; Hare, 2003), however, strongly predicted rater disagreement in the scoring of the VRAG (r = .58). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

A Comparative Study between the Conventional MCQ Scores and MCQ with the CBA Scores at the Standardized Clinical Knowledge Exam for Clinical Medical Students

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Mahmood Ghadermarzi

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Background and purpose: Partial knowledge is one of the main factors to be considered when dealing with the improvement of the administration of Multiple Choice Questions (MCQ in testing. Various strategies have been proposed for this factor in the traditional testing environment. Therefore, this study proposed a Confidence Based Assessment (CBA as a pertinent solution and aims at comparing the effect of the CBA Scoring system with that of the conventional scoring systems (with and without negative score estimation as penalty on the students’ scores and estimating their partial knowledge on clinical studies.Methods: This comparative study was conducted using a standardized clinical knowledge exam for 117 clinical students. After two-step training, both the conventional MCQ and CBA examination was given in a single session simultaneously. The exam included 100 questions and the volunteers were requested to complete a questionnaire regarding their attitude and satisfaction on their first experience of the CBA after exam. A new confidence based marking system was selected for the scoring, which was a hybrid of the UCL and MUK2010 systems. The MCQ-Assistant, SPSS and Microsoft office Excel software were used for scoring and data analysis.Results: The mean age of the volunteers was 27.3±5.47, of whom 43.6% were men and 69.2% were senior medical students. Exam reliability was 0.977. The fit line of the MCQ scores without penalty estimation was R2=0.9816 and Intercept=18.125 or approximately.2 deviation in the low scores. The MCQ scoring with penalty had a fit line approximately parallel to the 45-degree line but on or above it and the CBA scoring fit line was nearer to the 45-degree line, parallel to it and a little below it. These two sets of scores had a significant p value0.037. The response percentage to the CBA is higher (p value=0.0001. The discrimination power of the MCQ and the CBA for the upper and lower 1/3 of the students was not

A Soft Intelligent Risk Evaluation Model for Credit Scoring Classification

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Mehdi Khashei

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Risk management is one of the most important branches of business and finance. Classification models are the most popular and widely used analytical group of data mining approaches that can greatly help financial decision makers and managers to tackle credit risk problems. However, the literature clearly indicates that, despite proposing numerous classification models, credit scoring is often a difficult task. On the other hand, there is no universal credit-scoring model in the literature that can be accurately and explanatorily used in all circumstances. Therefore, the research for improving the efficiency of credit-scoring models has never stopped. In this paper, a hybrid soft intelligent classification model is proposed for credit-scoring problems. In the proposed model, the unique advantages of the soft computing techniques are used in order to modify the performance of the traditional artificial neural networks in credit scoring. Empirical results of Australian credit card data classifications indicate that the proposed hybrid model outperforms its components, and also other classification models presented for credit scoring. Therefore, the proposed model can be considered as an appropriate alternative tool for binary decision making in business and finance, especially in high uncertainty conditions.

Setting Pass Scores for Clinical Skills Assessment

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Min Liu

2008-12-01

Full Text Available In a clinical skills assessment, the decision to pass or fail an examinee should be based on the test content or on the examinees' performance. The process of deciding a pass score is known as setting a standard of the examination. This requires a properly selected panel of expert judges and a suitable standard setting method, which best fits the purpose of the examination. Six standard setting methods that are often used in clinical skills assessment are described to provide an overview of the standard setting process.

Affordable, automatic quantitative fall risk assessment based on clinical balance scales and Kinect data.

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Colagiorgio, P; Romano, F; Sardi, F; Moraschini, M; Sozzi, A; Bejor, M; Ricevuti, G; Buizza, A; Ramat, S

2014-01-01

The problem of a correct fall risk assessment is becoming more and more critical with the ageing of the population. In spite of the available approaches allowing a quantitative analysis of the human movement control system's performance, the clinical assessment and diagnostic approach to fall risk assessment still relies mostly on non-quantitative exams, such as clinical scales. This work documents our current effort to develop a novel method to assess balance control abilities through a system implementing an automatic evaluation of exercises drawn from balance assessment scales. Our aim is to overcome the classical limits characterizing these scales i.e. limited granularity and inter-/intra-examiner reliability, to obtain objective scores and more detailed information allowing to predict fall risk. We used Microsoft Kinect to record subjects' movements while performing challenging exercises drawn from clinical balance scales. We then computed a set of parameters quantifying the execution of the exercises and fed them to a supervised classifier to perform a classification based on the clinical score. We obtained a good accuracy (~82%) and especially a high sensitivity (~83%).

The HEART score is useful to predict cardiovascular risks and reduces unnecessary cardiac imaging in low-risk patients with acute chest pain.

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Dai, Siping; Huang, Bo; Zou, Yunliang; Guo, Jianbin; Liu, Ziyong; Pi, Dangyu; Qiu, Yunhong; Xiao, Chun

2018-06-01

The present study was to investigate whether the HEART score can be used to evaluate cardiovascular risks and reduce unnecessary cardiac imaging in China.Acute coronary syndrome patients with the thrombosis in myocardial infarction risk score risk HEART score group and 2 patients (1.5%) in the high risk HEART score group had cardiovascular events. The sensitivity of HEART score to predict cardiovascular events was 100% and the specificity was 46.7%. The potential unnecessary cardiac testing was 46.3%. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that per one category increase of the HEART score was associated with nearly 1.3-fold risk of cardiovascular events.In the low-risk acute chest pain patients, the HEART score is useful to physicians in evaluating the risk of cardiovascular events within the first 30 days. In addition, the HEART score is also useful in reducing the unnecessary cardiac imaging.

Subclinical cardiovascular disease assessment and its relationship with cardiovascular risk SCORE in a healthy adult population: A cross-sectional community-based study.

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Mitu, Ovidiu; Roca, Mihai; Floria, Mariana; Petris, Antoniu Octavian; Graur, Mariana; Mitu, Florin

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationship and the accuracy of SCORE (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation Project) risk correlated to multiple methods for determining subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a healthy population. This cross-sectional study included 120 completely asymptomatic subjects, with an age range 35-75 years, and randomly selected from the general population. The individuals were evaluated clinically and biochemical, and the SCORE risk was computed. Subclinical atherosclerosis was assessed by various methods: carotid ultrasound for intima-media thickness (cIMT) and plaque detection; aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV); echocardiography - left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and aortic atheromatosis (AA); ankle-brachial index (ABI). SCORE mean value was 2.95±2.71, with 76% of subjects having SCORE <5. Sixty-four percent of all subjects have had increased subclinical CVD changes, and SCORE risk score was correlated positively with all markers, except for ABI. In the multivariate analysis, increased cIMT and aPWV were significantly associated with high value of SCORE risk (OR 4.14, 95% CI: 1.42-12.15, p=0.009; respectively OR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.01-1.96, p=0.039). A positive linear relationship was observed between 3 territories of subclinical CVD (cIMT, LVMI, aPWV) and SCORE risk (p<0.0001). There was evidence of subclinical CVD in 60% of subjects with a SCORE value <5. As most subjects with a SCORE value <5 have subclinical CVD abnormalities, a more tailored subclinical CVD primary prevention program should be encouraged. Copyright © 2016 Sociedad Española de Arteriosclerosis. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores Applied to NASA's Astronant Corps

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Jain, I.; Charvat, J. M.; VanBaalen, M.; Lee, L.; Wear, M. L.

2014-01-01

In an effort to improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction, this analysis evaluates and compares the applicability of multiple CVD risk scores to the NASA Astronaut Corps which is extremely healthy at selection.

DUAL-ENERGY X-RAY ABSORPTIOMETRY AND CALCULATED FRAX RISK SCORES MAY UNDERESTIMATE OSTEOPOROTIC FRACTURE RISK IN VITAMIN D-DEFICIENT VETERANS WITH HIV INFECTION.

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Stephens, Kelly I; Rubinsztain, Leon; Payan, John; Rentsch, Chris; Rimland, David; Tangpricha, Vin

2016-04-01

We evaluated the utility of the World Health Organization (WHO) Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) in assessing fracture risk in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and vitamin D deficiency. This was a retrospective study of HIV-infected patients with co-existing vitamin D deficiency at the Atlanta Veterans Affairs Medical Center. Bone mineral density (BMD) was assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA), and the 10-year fracture risk was calculated by the WHO FRAX algorithm. Two independent radiologists reviewed lateral chest radiographs for the presence of subclinical vertebral fractures. We identified 232 patients with HIV and vitamin D deficiency. Overall, 15.5% of patients met diagnostic criteria for osteoporosis on DEXA, and 58% had low BMD (T-score between -1 and -2.5). The median risk of any major osteoporotic and hip fracture by FRAX score was 1.45 and 0.10%, respectively. Subclinical vertebral fractures were detected in 46.6% of patients. Compared to those without fractures, those with fractures had similar prevalence of osteoporosis (15.3% versus 15.7%; P>.999), low BMD (53.2% versus 59.3%; P = .419), and similar FRAX hip scores (0.10% versus 0.10%; P = .412). While the FRAX major score was lower in the nonfracture group versus fracture group (1.30% versus 1.60%; P = .025), this was not clinically significant. We found a high prevalence of subclinical vertebral fractures among vitamin D-deficient HIV patients; however, DEXA and FRAX failed to predict those with fractures. Our results suggest that traditional screening tools for fragility fractures may not be applicable to this high-risk patient population.

Different Clinical Features and Lower Scores in Clinical Scoring Systems for Appendicitis in Preschool Children: Comparison with School Age Onset

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Song, Chun Woo; Kang, Joon Won; Kim, Jae Young

2018-01-01

Purpose To clarify the clinical features of appendicitis in preschool children and to explore clinical appendicitis scoring systems in this age group. Methods We retrospectively collected data on 142 children, aged 10 years or younger, with confirmed diagnosis of appendicitis based on surgical and pathologic findings. Enrolled subjects were divided into two groups: Group 1 (preschool children aged ≤5 years, n=41) and Group 2 (school children aged >5 to ≤10 years, n=101). Data analyzed include...

Prediction of acute pancreatitis risk based on PIP score in children with cystic fibrosis.

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Terlizzi, V; Tosco, A; Tomaiuolo, R; Sepe, A; Amato, N; Casale, A; Mercogliano, C; De Gregorio, F; Improta, F; Elce, A; Castaldo, G; Raia, V

2014-09-01

Currently no tools to predict risk of acute (AP) and recurrent pancreatitis (ARP) in children with cystic fibrosis (CF) are available. We assessed the prevalence of AP/ARP and tested the potential role of Pancreatic Insufficiency Prevalence (PIP) score in a cohort of children with CF. We identified two groups of children, on the basis of presence/absence of AP/ARP, who were compared for age at diagnosis, clinical features, genotypes and sweat chloride level. PIP score was calculated for each patient. 10/167 (5.9%) experienced at least one episode of AP during follow up; 10/10 were pancreatic sufficient (PS). Patients with AP/ARP showed a PIP score ≤0.25 more frequently (6/10) than patients without AP/ARP. The odds ratio (95% CI) of developing pancreatitis was 4.54 (1.22-16.92) for patients with PIP 0.25 (p 0.0151). PIP score was correlated with sweat chloride test (p < 0.01). PIP score, PS status and normal/borderline sweat chloride levels could be applied to predict pancreatitis development in children with CF. ARP could lead to pancreatic insufficiency. Copyright © 2014 European Cystic Fibrosis Society. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prospective comparison of three risk scoring systems in non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

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Thanapirom, Kessarin; Ridtitid, Wiriyaporn; Rerknimitr, Rungsun; Thungsuk, Rattikorn; Noophun, Phadet; Wongjitrat, Chatchawan; Luangjaru, Somchai; Vedkijkul, Padet; Lertkupinit, Comson; Poonsab, Swangphong; Ratanachu-ek, Thawee; Hansomburana, Piyathida; Pornthisarn, Bubpha; Thongbai, Thirada; Mahachai, Varocha; Treeprasertsuk, Sombat

2016-04-01

Data regarding the efficacy of the Glasgow Blatchford score (GBS), full Rockall score (FRS) and pre-endoscopic Rockall scores (PRS) in comparing non-variceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) are limited. Our aim was to determine the performance of these three risk scores in predicting the need for treatment, mortality, and re-bleeding among patients with non-variceal and variceal UGIB. During January, 2010 and September, 2011, patients with UGIB from 11 hospitals were prospectively enrolled. The GBS, FRS, and PRS were calculated. Discriminative ability for each score was assessed using the receiver operated characteristics curve (ROC) analysis. A total of 981 patients presented with acute UGIB, 225 patients (22.9%) had variceal UGIB. The areas under the ROC (AUC) of the GBS, FRS, and PRS for predicting the need for treatment were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.61 in non-variceal versus 0.66, 0.66, and 0.59 in variceal UGIB. The AUC for predicting mortality and re-bleeding during admission were 0.66, 0.80, and 0.76 in non-variceal versus 0.63, 0.57, and 0.63 in variceal UGIB. AUC score was not statistically significant for predicting need for therapy and clinical outcome in variceal UGIB. The GBS ≤ 2 and FRS ≤ 1 identified low-risk non-variceal UGIB patients for death and re-bleeding during hospitalization. In contrast to non-variceal UGIB, the GBS, FRS, and PRS were not precise scores for assessing the need for therapy, mortality, and re-bleeding during admission in variceal UGIB. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Improved scores for observed teamwork in the clinical environment following a multidisciplinary operating room simulation intervention.

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Weller, Jennifer M; Cumin, David; Civil, Ian D; Torrie, Jane; Garden, Alexander; MacCormick, Andrew D; Gurusinghe, Nishanthi; Boyd, Matthew J; Frampton, Christopher; Cokorilo, Martina; Tranvik, Magnus; Carlsson, Lisa; Lee, Tracey; Ng, Wai Leap; Crossan, Michael; Merry, Alan F

2016-08-05

We ran a Multidisciplinary Operating Room Simulation (MORSim) course for 20 complete general surgical teams from two large metropolitan hospitals. Our goal was to improve teamwork and communication in the operating room (OR). We hypothesised that scores for teamwork and communication in the OR would improve back in the workplace following MORSim. We used an extended Behavioural Marker Risk Index (BMRI) to measure teamwork and communication, because a relationship has previously been documented between BMRI scores and surgical patient outcomes. Trained observers scored general surgical teams in the OR at the two study hospitals before and after MORSim, using the BMRI. Analysis of BMRI scores for the 224 general surgical cases before and 213 cases after MORSim showed BMRI scores improved by more than 20% (0.41 v 0.32, pteamwork score would translate into a clinically important reduction in complications and mortality in surgical patients. We demonstrated an improvement in scores for teamwork and communication in general surgical ORs following our intervention. These results support the use of simulation-based multidisciplinary team training for OR staff to promote better teamwork and communication, and potentially improve outcomes for general surgical patients.

Relationship between framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic Korean individuals

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Heo, So Young; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sub; Seong, Su Ok

2016-01-01

We explored the association between Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in asymptomatic Korean individuals. We retrospectively analyzed 2216 participants who underwent routine health screening and CACS using the 64-slice multidetector computed tomography between January 2010 and June 2014. Relationship between CACS and FRS, and factors associated with discrepancy between CACS and FRS were analyzed. CACS and FRS were positively correlated (p < 0.0001). However, in 3.7% of participants with low coronary event risk and high CACS, age, male gender, smoker, hypertension, total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index (BMI; ≥ 35) were associated with the discrepancy. In the diagnostic prediction model for discrepancy, the receiver operating characteristic curve including factors associated with FRS, diastolic blood pressure (≥ 75 mm Hg), diabetes mellitus, and BMI (≥ 35) showed that the area under the curve was 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.819–0.890), indicating good sensitivity. Diabetes mellitus or obesity (BMI ≥ 35) compensate for the weakness of FRS and may be potential indicators for application of CACS in asymptomatic Koreans with low coronary event risk

Relationship between framingham risk score and coronary artery calcium score in asymptomatic Korean individuals

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Heo, So Young; Park, Noh Hyuck; Park, Chan Sub; Seong, Su Ok [Dept. of Radiology, Myongji Hospital, Seonam University College of Medicine, Goyang (Korea, Republic of)

2016-02-15

We explored the association between Framingham risk score (FRS) and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) in asymptomatic Korean individuals. We retrospectively analyzed 2216 participants who underwent routine health screening and CACS using the 64-slice multidetector computed tomography between January 2010 and June 2014. Relationship between CACS and FRS, and factors associated with discrepancy between CACS and FRS were analyzed. CACS and FRS were positively correlated (p < 0.0001). However, in 3.7% of participants with low coronary event risk and high CACS, age, male gender, smoker, hypertension, total cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, and body mass index (BMI; ≥ 35) were associated with the discrepancy. In the diagnostic prediction model for discrepancy, the receiver operating characteristic curve including factors associated with FRS, diastolic blood pressure (≥ 75 mm Hg), diabetes mellitus, and BMI (≥ 35) showed that the area under the curve was 0.854 (95% confidence interval, 0.819–0.890), indicating good sensitivity. Diabetes mellitus or obesity (BMI ≥ 35) compensate for the weakness of FRS and may be potential indicators for application of CACS in asymptomatic Koreans with low coronary event risk.

The ACTA PORT-score for predicting perioperative risk of blood transfusion for adult cardiac surgery.

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Klein, A A; Collier, T; Yeates, J; Miles, L F; Fletcher, S N; Evans, C; Richards, T

2017-09-01

A simple and accurate scoring system to predict risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery is lacking. We identified independent risk factors associated with transfusion by performing univariate analysis, followed by logistic regression. We then simplified the score to an integer-based system and tested it using the area under the receiver operator characteristic (AUC) statistic with a Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. Finally, the scoring system was applied to the external validation dataset and the same statistical methods applied to test the accuracy of the ACTA-PORT score. Several factors were independently associated with risk of transfusion, including age, sex, body surface area, logistic EuroSCORE, preoperative haemoglobin and creatinine, and type of surgery. In our primary dataset, the score accurately predicted risk of perioperative transfusion in cardiac surgery patients with an AUC of 0.76. The external validation confirmed accuracy of the scoring method with an AUC of 0.84 and good agreement across all scores, with a minor tendency to under-estimate transfusion risk in very high-risk patients. The ACTA-PORT score is a reliable, validated tool for predicting risk of transfusion for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This and other scores can be used in research studies for risk adjustment when assessing outcomes, and might also be incorporated into a Patient Blood Management programme. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Journal of Anaesthesia. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Clinical and angiographic predictors of haemodynamically significant angiographic lesions: development and validation of a risk score to predict positive fractional flow reserve.

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Sareen, Nishtha; Baber, Usman; Kezbor, Safwan; Sayseng, Sonny; Aquino, Melissa; Mehran, Roxana; Sweeny, Joseph; Barman, Nitin; Kini, Annapoorna; Sharma, Samin K

2017-04-07

Coronary revascularisation based upon physiological evaluation of lesions improves clinical outcomes. Angiographic or visual stenosis assessment alone is insufficient in predicting haemodynamic stenosis severity by fractional flow reserve (FFR) and therefore cannot be used to guide revascularisation, particularly in the lesion subset system formulated. Of 1,023 consecutive lesions (883 patients), 314 (31%) were haemodynamically significant. Characteristics associated with FFR ≤0.8 include male gender, higher SYNTAX score, lesions ≥20 mm, stenosis >50%, bifurcation, calcification, absence of tortuosity and smaller reference diameter. A user-friendly integer score was developed with the five variables demonstrating the strongest association. On prospective validation (in 279 distinct lesions), the increasing value of the score correlated well with increasing haemodynamic significance (C-statistic 0.85). We identified several clinical and angiographic characteristics and formulated a scoring system to guide the approach to intermediate lesions. This may translate into cost savings. Larger studies with prospective validation are required to confirm our results.

Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

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George, Elizabeth C; Walker, A Sarah; Kiguli, Sarah; Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Opoka, Robert O; Engoru, Charles; Akech, Samuel O; Nyeko, Richard; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Berkley, James A; Mpoya, Ayub; Levin, Michael; Crawley, Jane; Gibb, Diana M; Maitland, Kathryn; Babiker, Abdel G

2015-07-31

Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally

CAN TIMI RISK SCORE PREDICT ANGIOGRAPHIC INVOLVEMENT IN PATIENTS WITH ST-ELEVATION MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION?

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Allahyar Golabchi

2010-11-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In most studies, the agreeable risk scores for ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI consist of thrombolytic in myocardial infarction (TIMI risk score and modified Gensini risk score. Researchers showed significant relations between TIMI with angiography scores in patients with UA/NSTEMI. We studied this relation in patients with STEMI.    METHODS: We studied CCU patients with STEMI hospitalized in several hospitals of Isfahan, Iran from September 2007 to June 2008. Sampling method of 240 patients was random and simple. Exclusion criteria were incomplete history, nonspecific electrocardiogram changes, left bundle branch block and not accomplished angiography or accomplished angiography after 2 months of STEMI. Questionnaire indices collected on the basis of TIMI (0-14 points. Echocardiography and angiography were done and then, we used Gensini (0-400 points to review films of angiography. Spearman`s rank test and Pearson correlation coefficient were used to study the relation between these scores.    RESULTS: One hundred and sixty one patients were male and their average age was 60.02 years. Averages of TIMI and Gensini scores were 6.30 ± 2.5 and 120.77 ± 50.4, respectively. Study showed significant relation between TIMI, age and LVEF (P <0.001, r=-0.46. Also, between Gensini and age, gender and LVEF significant relation was found (P <0.001. But, a meaningful correlation didn’t exist between TIMI and the gender (P =0.08. Our study proved direct relation between TIMI risk scores and modified Gensini scores (P <0.001, r=0.55.     CONCLUSION: We may decide quickly and correctly in emergency room to distinguish which patients with STEMI could derive a benefit from invasive strategies using TIMI score. Also, TIMI risk score can be a good predictor to determine the extension of coronary artery disease in patients with STEMI. As a result, we suggest determination of TIMI score for any patient entered emergency room. Also

Metabolic syndrome and Framingham risk score in obese young adults

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Felix F. Widjaja

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Background: The increase number of the metabolic syndrome (MetS among young adults was mostly caused by obesity. MetS increases the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD which can be estimated by Framingham risk score (FRS. The study was aimed to know the prevalence of MetS and FRS in obese young adults and to associate them with the components of MetS. Methods: A total of 70 male and female students aged 18 to 25 years with BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 in Faculty of Medicine Universitas Indonesia were selected consecutively. The blood samples used to test fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, and triglyceride were examined in Department of Clinical Pathology, Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital after fasting for 14 to 16 hours. International Diabetes Federation (IDF definition was used to diagnose MetS. Univariate and bivariate analysis were done. Results: The prevalence of MetS based on IDF definition was 18.6% among obese young adults. The most associated MetS components was hypertriglyceridemia (OR 12.13; 95% CI 2.92-50.46; p = 0.001, followed with high blood pressure (OR 9.33; 95% CI 2.26-38.56; p = 0.001, low-HDL (OR 8.33; 95% CI 2.17-32.05; p = 0.003, and impaired fasting glucose (p = 0.03. Four subjects had FRS ≥ 1% and 66 subjects had risk < 1%. Increased FRS was not associated with MetS (p = 0.154. There was no component of MetS associated with increased FRS. Conclusion: Prevalence of MetS in obese young adults was similar with obese children and adolescents. Although no association of MetS and FRS was found, they are significant predictors for CHD which should not be used separately. (Med J Indones. 2013;22:100-6Keywords: Abdominal obesity, Framingham risk score, metabolic syndrome, young adults

Comparison of three scoring systems in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding: a prospective observational study.

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Zhong, Min; Chen, Wan Jun; Lu, Xiao Ye; Qian, Jie; Zhu, Chang Qing

2016-12-01

To compare the performances of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), modified GBS (mGBS) and AIMS65 in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with acute upper gastrointestinal bleeding (AUGIB). This study enrolled 320 consecutive patients with AUGIB. Patients at high and low risks of developing adverse clinical outcomes (rebleeding, the need of clinical intervention and death) were categorized according to the GBS, mGBS and AIMS65 scoring systems. The outcome of the patients were the occurrences of adverse clinical outcomes. The areas under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) of three scoring systems were compared. Irrespective of the systems used, the high-risk groups showed higher rates of rebleeding, intervention and death compared with the low-risk groups (P < 0.05). For the prediction of rebleeding, AIMS65 (AUROC 0.735, 95% CI 0.667-0.802) performed significantly better than GBS (AUROC 0.672, 95% CI 0.597-0.747; P < 0.01) and mGBS (AUROC 0.677, 95% CI 0.602-0.753; P < 0.01). For the prediction of interventions, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.769, 95% CI 0.668-0.870; mGBS: AUROC 0.745, 95% CI 0.643-0.847; AIMS65: AUROC 0.746, 95% CI 0.640-0.851). For the prediction of in-hospital mortality, there was no significant difference among the three systems (GBS: AUROC 0.796, 95% CI 0.694-0.898; mGBS: AUROC 0.803, 95% CI 0.703-0.904; AIMS65: AUROC 0.786, 95% CI 0.670-0.903). The three scoring systems are reliable and accurate in predicting the rates of rebleeding, surgery and mortality in AUGIB. However, AIMS65 outperforms GBS and mGBS in predicting rebleeding. © 2016 Chinese Medical Association Shanghai Branch, Chinese Society of Gastroenterology, Renji Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Predicting reattendance at a high-risk breast cancer clinic.

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Ormseth, Sarah R; Wellisch, David K; Aréchiga, Adam E; Draper, Taylor L

2015-10-01

The research about follow-up patterns of women attending high-risk breast-cancer clinics is sparse. This study sought to profile daughters of breast-cancer patients who are likely to return versus those unlikely to return for follow-up care in a high-risk clinic. Our investigation included 131 patients attending the UCLA Revlon Breast Center High Risk Clinic. Predictor variables included age, computed breast-cancer risk, participants' perceived personal risk, clinically significant depressive symptomatology (CES-D score ≥ 16), current level of anxiety (State-Trait Anxiety Inventory), and survival status of participants' mothers (survived or passed away from breast cancer). A greater likelihood of reattendance was associated with older age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.07, p = 0.004), computed breast-cancer risk (AOR = 1.10, p = 0.017), absence of depressive symptomatology (AOR = 0.25, p = 0.009), past psychiatric diagnosis (AOR = 3.14, p = 0.029), and maternal loss to breast cancer (AOR = 2.59, p = 0.034). Also, an interaction was found between mother's survival and perceived risk (p = 0.019), such that reattendance was associated with higher perceived risk among participants whose mothers survived (AOR = 1.04, p = 0.002), but not those whose mothers died (AOR = 0.99, p = 0.685). Furthermore, a nonlinear inverted "U" relationship was observed between state anxiety and reattendance (p = 0.037); participants with moderate anxiety were more likely to reattend than those with low or high anxiety levels. Demographic, medical, and psychosocial factors were found to be independently associated with reattendance to a high-risk breast-cancer clinic. Explication of the profiles of women who may or may not reattend may serve to inform the development and implementation of interventions to increase the likelihood of follow-up care.

Homocysteine enhances the predictive value of the GRACE risk score in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

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Fan, Yan; Wang, Jianjun; Zhang, Sumei; Wan, Zhaofei; Zhou, Dong; Ding, Yanhong; He, Qinli; Xie, Ping

2017-09-01

The present study aims to investigate whether the addition of homocysteine level to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score enhances its predictive value for clinical outcomes in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). A total of 1143 consecutive patients with STEMI were included in this prospective cohort study. Homocysteine was detected, and the GRACE score was calculated. The predictive power of the GRACE score alone or combined with homocysteine was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, methods of net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). During a median follow-up period of 36.7 months, 271 (23.7%) patients reached the clinical endpoints. It showed that the GRACE score and homocysteine could independently predict all-cause death [GRACE: HR=1.031 (1.024-1.039), p<0.001; homocysteine: HR=1.023 (1.018-1.028), p<0.001] and MACE [GRACE: HR=1.008 (1.005-1.011), p<0.001; homocysteine: HR=1.022 (1.018-1.025), p<0.001]. When they were used in combination to assess the clinical outcomes, the area under the ROC curve significantly increased from 0.786 to 0.884 (95% CI=0.067-0.128, Z=6.307, p<0.001) for all-cause death and from 0.678 to 0.759 (95% CI=0.055-0.108, Z=5.943, p<0.001) for MACE. The addition of homocysteine to the GRACE model improved NRI (all-cause death: 0.575, p<0.001; MACE: 0.621, p=0.008) and IDI (all-cause death: 0.083, p<0.001; MACE: 0.130, p=0.016), indicating effective discrimination and reclassification. Both the GRACE score and homocysteine are significant and independent predictors for clinical outcomes in patients with STEMI. A combination of them can develop a more predominant prediction for clinical outcomes in these patients.

Risk of Recurrence and Chemotherapy Benefit for Patients With Node-Negative, Estrogen Receptor–Positive Breast Cancer: Recurrence Score Alone and Integrated With Pathologic and Clinical Factors

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Tang, Gong; Cuzick, Jack; Costantino, Joseph P.; Dowsett, Mitch; Forbes, John F.; Crager, Michael; Mamounas, Eleftherios P.; Shak, Steven; Wolmark, Norman

2011-01-01

Purpose The 21-gene breast cancer assay recurrence score (RS) is widely used for assessing recurrence risk and predicting chemotherapy benefit in patients with estrogen receptor (ER) –positive breast cancer. Pathologic and clinical factors such as tumor size, grade, and patient age also provide independent prognostic utility. We developed a formal integration of these measures and evaluated its prognostic and predictive value. Patients and Methods From the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) B-14 and translational research cohort of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (TransATAC) studies, we included patients who received hormonal monotherapy, had ER-positive tumors, and RS and traditional clinicopathologic factors assessed (647 and 1,088, respectively). Individual patient risk assessments from separate Cox models were combined using meta-analysis to form an RS-pathology-clinical (RSPC) assessment of distant recurrence risk. Risk assessments by RS and RSPC were compared in node-negative (N0) patients. RSPC was compared with RS for predicting chemotherapy benefit in NSABP B-20. Results RSPC had significantly more prognostic value for distant recurrence than did RS (P < .001) and showed better separation of risk in the study population. RSPC classified fewer patients as intermediate risk (17.8% v 26.7%, P < .001) and more patients as lower risk (63.8% v 54.2%, P < .001) than did RS among 1,444 N0 ER-positive patients. In B-20, the interaction of RSPC with chemotherapy was not statistically significant (P = .10), in contrast to the previously reported significant interaction of RS with chemotherapy (P = .037). Conclusion RSPC refines the assessment of distant recurrence risk and reduces the number of patients classified as intermediate risk. Adding clinicopathologic measures did not seem to enhance the value of RS alone nor the individual biology RS identifies in predicting chemotherapy benefit. PMID:22010013

Risk of recurrence and chemotherapy benefit for patients with node-negative, estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer: recurrence score alone and integrated with pathologic and clinical factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Gong; Cuzick, Jack; Costantino, Joseph P; Dowsett, Mitch; Forbes, John F; Crager, Michael; Mamounas, Eleftherios P; Shak, Steven; Wolmark, Norman

2011-11-20

The 21-gene breast cancer assay recurrence score (RS) is widely used for assessing recurrence risk and predicting chemotherapy benefit in patients with estrogen receptor (ER) -positive breast cancer. Pathologic and clinical factors such as tumor size, grade, and patient age also provide independent prognostic utility. We developed a formal integration of these measures and evaluated its prognostic and predictive value. From the National Surgical Adjuvant Breast and Bowel (NSABP) B-14 and translational research cohort of the Arimidex, Tamoxifen Alone or in Combination (TransATAC) studies, we included patients who received hormonal monotherapy, had ER-positive tumors, and RS and traditional clinicopathologic factors assessed (647 and 1,088, respectively). Individual patient risk assessments from separate Cox models were combined using meta-analysis to form an RS-pathology-clinical (RSPC) assessment of distant recurrence risk. Risk assessments by RS and RSPC were compared in node-negative (N0) patients. RSPC was compared with RS for predicting chemotherapy benefit in NSABP B-20. RSPC had significantly more prognostic value for distant recurrence than did RS (P < .001) and showed better separation of risk in the study population. RSPC classified fewer patients as intermediate risk (17.8% v 26.7%, P < .001) and more patients as lower risk (63.8% v 54.2%, P < .001) than did RS among 1,444 N0 ER-positive patients. In B-20, the interaction of RSPC with chemotherapy was not statistically significant (P = .10), in contrast to the previously reported significant interaction of RS with chemotherapy (P = .037). RSPC refines the assessment of distant recurrence risk and reduces the number of patients classified as intermediate risk. Adding clinicopathologic measures did not seem to enhance the value of RS alone nor the individual biology RS identifies in predicting chemotherapy benefit.

A Novel Risk Scoring System Reliably Predicts Readmission Following Pancreatectomy

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Valero, Vicente; Grimm, Joshua C.; Kilic, Arman; Lewis, Russell L.; Tosoian, Jeffrey J.; He, Jin; Griffin, James; Cameron, John L.; Weiss, Matthew J.; Vollmer, Charles M.; Wolfgang, Christopher L.

2015-01-01

Background Postoperative readmissions have been proposed by Medicare as a quality metric and may impact provider reimbursement. Since readmission following pancreatectomy is common, we sought to identify factors associated with readmission in order to establish a predictive risk scoring system (RSS). Study Design A retrospective analysis of 2,360 pancreatectomies performed at nine, high-volume pancreatic centers between 2005 and 2011 was performed. Forty-five factors strongly associated with readmission were identified. To derive and validate a RSS, the population was randomly divided into two cohorts in a 4:1 fashion. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed and scores were assigned based on the relative odds ratio of each independent predictor. A composite Readmission After Pancreatectomy (RAP) score was generated and then stratified to create risk groups. Results Overall, 464 (19.7%) patients were readmitted within 90-days. Eight pre- and postoperative factors, including prior myocardial infarction (OR 2.03), ASA Class ≥ 3 (OR 1.34), dementia (OR 6.22), hemorrhage (OR 1.81), delayed gastric emptying (OR 1.78), surgical site infection (OR 3.31), sepsis (OR 3.10) and short length of stay (OR 1.51), were independently predictive of readmission. The 32-point RAP score generated from the derivation cohort was highly predictive of readmission in the validation cohort (AUC 0.72). The low (0-3), intermediate (4-7) and high risk (>7) groups correlated to 11.7%, 17.5% and 45.4% observed readmission rates, respectively (preadmission following pancreatectomy. Identification of patients with increased risk of readmission using the RAP score will allow efficient resource allocation aimed to attenuate readmission rates. It also has potential to serve as a new metric for comparative research and quality assessment. PMID:25797757

The Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System predicts clinical outcomes in acute pancreatitis: findings from a prospective cohort study.

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Buxbaum, James; Quezada, Michael; Chong, Bradford; Gupta, Nikhil; Yu, Chung Yao; Lane, Christianne; Da, Ben; Leung, Kenneth; Shulman, Ira; Pandol, Stephen; Wu, Bechien

2018-03-15

The Pancreatitis Activity Scoring System (PASS) has been derived by an international group of experts via a modified Delphi process. Our aim was to perform an external validation study to assess for concordance of the PASS score with high face validity clinical outcomes and determine specific meaningful thresholds to assist in application of this scoring system in a large prospectively ascertained cohort. We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study of consecutive patients admitted to the Los Angeles County Hospital between March 2015 and March 2017. Patients were identified using an emergency department paging system and electronic alert system. Comprehensive characterization included substance use history, pancreatitis etiology, biochemical profile, and detailed clinical course. We calculated the PASS score at admission, discharge, and at 12 h increments during the hospitalization. We performed several analyses to assess the relationship between the PASS score and outcomes at various points during hospitalization as well as following discharge. Using multivariable logistic regression analysis, we assessed the relationship between admission PASS score and risk of severe pancreatitis. PASS score performance was compared to established systems used to predict severe pancreatitis. Additional inpatient outcomes assessed included local complications, length of stay, development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), and intensive care unit (ICU) admission. We also assessed whether the PASS score at discharge was associated with early readmission (re-hospitalization for pancreatitis symptoms and complications within 30 days of discharge). A total of 439 patients were enrolled, their mean age was 42 (±15) years, and 53% were male. Admission PASS score >140 was associated with moderately severe and severe pancreatitis (OR 3.5 [95% CI 2.0, 6.3]), ICU admission (OR 4.9 [2.5, 9.4]), local complications (3.0 [1.6, 5.7]), and development of SIRS (OR 2.9 [1

Does simplicity compromise accuracy in ACS risk prediction? A retrospective analysis of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores.

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Krishna G Aragam

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI risk scores for Unstable Angina/Non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (UA/NSTEMI and ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE risk scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality are established tools for assessing risk in Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS patients. The objective of our study was to compare the discriminative abilities of the TIMI and GRACE risk scores in a broad-spectrum, unselected ACS population and to assess the relative contributions of model simplicity and model composition to any observed differences between the two scoring systems. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: ACS patients admitted to the University of Michigan between 1999 and 2005 were divided into UA/NSTEMI (n = 2753 and STEMI (n = 698 subpopulations. The predictive abilities of the TIMI and GRACE scores for in-hospital and 6-month mortality were assessed by calibration and discrimination. There were 137 in-hospital deaths (4%, and among the survivors, 234 (7.4% died by 6 months post-discharge. In the UA/NSTEMI population, the GRACE risk scores demonstrated better discrimination than the TIMI UA/NSTEMI score for in-hospital (C = 0.85, 95% CI: 0.81-0.89, versus 0.54, 95% CI: 0.48-0.60; p<0.01 and 6-month (C = 0.79, 95% CI: 0.76-0.83, versus 0.56, 95% CI: 0.52-0.60; p<0.01 mortality. Among STEMI patients, the GRACE and TIMI STEMI scores demonstrated comparably excellent discrimination for in-hospital (C = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.78-0.90 versus 0.83, 95% CI: 0.78-0.89; p = 0.83 and 6-month (C = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63-0.81, versus 0.71, 95% CI: 0.64-0.79; p = 0.79 mortality. An analysis of refitted multivariate models demonstrated a marked improvement in the discriminative power of the TIMI UA/NSTEMI model with the incorporation of heart failure and hemodynamic variables. Study limitations included unaccounted for confounders inherent to observational, single institution

Clinical score and rapid antigen detection test to guide antibiotic use for sore throats: randomised controlled trial of PRISM (primary care streptococcal management).

Science.gov (United States)

Little, Paul; Hobbs, F D Richard; Moore, Michael; Mant, David; Williamson, Ian; McNulty, Cliodna; Cheng, Ying Edith; Leydon, Geraldine; McManus, Richard; Kelly, Joanne; Barnett, Jane; Glasziou, Paul; Mullee, Mark

2013-10-10

To determine the effect of clinical scores that predict streptococcal infection or rapid streptococcal antigen detection tests compared with delayed antibiotic prescribing. Open adaptive pragmatic parallel group randomised controlled trial. Primary care in United Kingdom. Patients aged ≥ 3 with acute sore throat. An internet programme randomised patients to targeted antibiotic use according to: delayed antibiotics (the comparator group for analyses), clinical score, or antigen test used according to clinical score. During the trial a preliminary streptococcal score (score 1, n=1129) was replaced by a more consistent score (score 2, n=631; features: fever during previous 24 hours; purulence; attends rapidly (within three days after onset of symptoms); inflamed tonsils; no cough/coryza (acronym FeverPAIN). Symptom severity reported by patients on a 7 point Likert scale (mean severity of sore throat/difficulty swallowing for days two to four after the consultation (primary outcome)), duration of symptoms, use of antibiotics. For score 1 there were no significant differences between groups. For score 2, symptom severity was documented in 80% (168/207 (81%) in delayed antibiotics group; 168/211 (80%) in clinical score group; 166/213 (78%) in antigen test group). Reported severity of symptoms was lower in the clinical score group (-0.33, 95% confidence interval -0.64 to -0.02; P=0.04), equivalent to one in three rating sore throat a slight versus moderate problem, with a similar reduction for the antigen test group (-0.30, -0.61 to -0.00; P=0.05). Symptoms rated moderately bad or worse resolved significantly faster in the clinical score group (hazard ratio 1.30, 95% confidence interval 1.03 to 1.63) but not the antigen test group (1.11, 0.88 to 1.40). In the delayed antibiotics group, 75/164 (46%) used antibiotics. Use of antibiotics in the clinical score group (60/161) was 29% lower (adjusted risk ratio 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.50 to 0.95; P=0.02) and in the

Risk stratification with the risk chart from the European Society of Hypertension compared with SCORE in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sehestedt, Thomas; Jeppesen, Jørgen; Hansen, Tine W

2009-01-01

to higher-risk categories than SCORE (P smokers. However, ESH risk chart agreed with ESC guidelines for antihypertensive treatment using SCORE in 89% (634/713) of the patients recommended treatment and produced...... similar sensitivities (79 vs. 79%), specificities (46 vs. 50%), positive (14 vs. 15%) and negative (95 vs. 96%) predictive values for CEP. CONCLUSION: Although SCORE did not use subclinical organ damage, the guidelines by ESH and ESC using SCORE recommended antihypertensive treatment in almost the same...

Comparison of three contemporary risk scores for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

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Grant, S W; Hickey, G L; Carlson, E D; McCollum, C N

2014-07-01

A number of contemporary risk prediction models for mortality following elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair have been developed. Before a model is used either in clinical practice or to risk-adjust surgical outcome data it is important that its performance is assessed in external validation studies. The British Aneurysm Repair (BAR) score, Medicare, and Vascular Governance North West (VGNW) models were validated using an independent prospectively collected sample of multicentre clinical audit data. Consecutive, data on 1,124 patients undergoing elective AAA repair at 17 hospitals in the north-west of England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013 were analysed. The outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Model calibration (observed to expected ratio with chi-square test, calibration plots, calibration intercept and slope) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC]) were assessed in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. The mean age of the population was 74.4 years (SD 7.7); 193 (17.2%) patients were women and the majority of patients (759, 67.5%) underwent endovascular aneurysm repair. All three models demonstrated good calibration in the overall cohort and procedural subgroups. Overall discrimination was excellent for the BAR score (AUC 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.89), and acceptable for the Medicare and VGNW models, with AUCs of 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86) and 0.75 (95% CI 0.65-0.84) respectively. Only the BAR score demonstrated good discrimination in procedural subgroups. All three models demonstrated good calibration and discrimination for the prediction of in-hospital mortality following elective AAA repair and are potentially useful. The BAR score has a number of advantages, which include being developed on the most contemporaneous data, excellent overall discrimination, and good performance in procedural subgroups. Regular model validations and recalibration will be essential. Copyright �

A Danish diabetes risk score for targeted screening: the Inter99 study.

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Glümer, Charlotte; Carstensen, Bendix; Sandbaek, Annelli; Lauritzen, Torsten; Jørgensen, Torben; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

2004-03-01

To develop a simple self-administered questionnaire identifying individuals with undiagnosed diabetes with a sensitivity of 75% and minimizing the high-risk group needing subsequent testing. A population-based sample (Inter99 study) of 6,784 individuals aged 30-60 years completed a questionnaire on diabetes-related symptoms and risk factors. The participants underwent an oral glucose tolerance test. The risk score was derived from the first half and validated on the second half of the study population. External validation was performed based on the Danish Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION) pilot study. The risk score was developed by stepwise backward multiple logistic regression. The final risk score included age, sex, BMI, known hypertension, physical activity at leisure time, and family history of diabetes, items independently and significantly (Pscreening strategy for type 2 diabetes, decreasing the numbers of subsequent tests and thereby possibly minimizing the economical and personal costs of the screening strategy.

In-hospital outcome of acute myocardial infarction in correlation with 'thrombolysis in myocardial infarction' risk score

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masood, A.; Naqvi, M.A.; Jafar, S.S.

2009-01-01

Effective risk stratification is integral to management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS). The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score for ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is a simple integer score based on 8 high-risk parameters that can be used at the bedside for risk stratification of patients at presentation with STEMI. To evaluate the prognostic significance of TIMI risk score in a local population group of acute STEMI. The study included 160 cases of STEMI eligible for thrombolysis. TIMI risk score was calculated for each case at the time of presentation and were then followed during their hospital stay for the occurrence of electrical and mechanical complications as well as mortality. The patients were divided into three risk groups, namely 'low risk', 'moderate-risk' and 'high-risk' based on their TIMI scores (0-4 low-risk, 5-8 moderate-risk, 9-14 high risk). The frequencies of complications and deaths were compared among the three risk groups. Post MI arrhythmias were noted in 2.2%, 16% and 50%; cardiogenic shock in 6.7%, 16% and 60%; pulmonary edema in 6.7%, 20% and 80%; mechanical complications of MI in 0%, 8% and 30%; death in 4.4%, 8%, and 60% of patients belonging to low-risk, moderate-risk and high-risk groups respectively. Frequency of complications and death correlated well with TIMI risk score (p=0.001). TIMI risk score correlates well with the frequency of electrical or mechanical complications and death after STEMI. (author)

B-type Natriuretic Peptide and RISK-PCI Score in the Risk Assessment in Patients with STEMI Treated by Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

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Asanin, Milika; Mrdovic, Igor; Savic, Lidija; Matic, Dragan; Krljanac, Gordana; Vukcevic, Vladan; Orlic, Dejan; Stankovic, Goran; Marinkovic, Jelena; Stankovic, Sanja

2016-01-01

RISK-PCI score is a novel score for risk stratification of patients with ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) treated by primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI). The aim of this study was to evaluate the role of B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) and the RISK-PCI score for early risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI. In 120 patients with STEMI treated by pPCI, BNP was measured on admission before pPCI. The primary end point was 30-day mortality. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the most powerful predictive factors of 30-day mortality were the plasma level of BNP ≥ 206.6 pg/mL with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 87.5% and the RISK-PCI score ≥ 5.25 with the sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 85.7%. Thirty-day mortality was 6.7%. After multivariate adjustment, admission BNP (≥ 206.6 pg/mL) (OR 2.952, 95% CI 1.072 - 8.133, p = 0.036) and the RISK-PCI score (≥ 5.25) (OR 2.284, 95% CI 1.140-4.578, p = 0.020) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. The area under the ROC curve using the RISK-PCI score and BNP to detect mortality was 0.828 (p = 0.002) and 0.903 (p PCI score increased the area under the ROC to 0.949 (p PCI score for 30-day mortality. BNP on admission and the RISK-PCI score were the independent predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with the STEMI treated by pPCI. BNP in combination with the RISK-PCI score showed the way to more accurate risk assessment in patients with STEMI treated by pPCI.

siMS Score: Simple Method for Quantifying Metabolic Syndrome.

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Soldatovic, Ivan; Vukovic, Rade; Culafic, Djordje; Gajic, Milan; Dimitrijevic-Sreckovic, Vesna

2016-01-01

To evaluate siMS score and siMS risk score, novel continuous metabolic syndrome scores as methods for quantification of metabolic status and risk. Developed siMS score was calculated using formula: siMS score = 2*Waist/Height + Gly/5.6 + Tg/1.7 + TAsystolic/130-HDL/1.02 or 1.28 (for male or female subjects, respectively). siMS risk score was calculated using formula: siMS risk score = siMS score * age/45 or 50 (for male or female subjects, respectively) * family history of cardio/cerebro-vascular events (event = 1.2, no event = 1). A sample of 528 obese and non-obese participants was used to validate siMS score and siMS risk score. Scores calculated as sum of z-scores (each component of metabolic syndrome regressed with age and gender) and sum of scores derived from principal component analysis (PCA) were used for evaluation of siMS score. Variants were made by replacing glucose with HOMA in calculations. Framingham score was used for evaluation of siMS risk score. Correlation between siMS score with sum of z-scores and weighted sum of factors of PCA was high (r = 0.866 and r = 0.822, respectively). Correlation between siMS risk score and log transformed Framingham score was medium to high for age groups 18+,30+ and 35+ (0.835, 0.707 and 0.667, respectively). siMS score and siMS risk score showed high correlation with more complex scores. Demonstrated accuracy together with superior simplicity and the ability to evaluate and follow-up individual patients makes siMS and siMS risk scores very convenient for use in clinical practice and research as well.

Validation of the German Diabetes Risk Score within a population-based representative cohort.

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Hartwig, S; Kuss, O; Tiller, D; Greiser, K H; Schulze, M B; Dierkes, J; Werdan, K; Haerting, J; Kluttig, A

2013-09-01

To validate the German Diabetes Risk Score within the population-based cohort of the Cardiovascular Disease - Living and Ageing in Halle (CARLA) study. The sample included 582 women and 719 men, aged 45-83 years, who did not have diabetes at baseline. The individual risk of every participant was calculated using the German Diabetes Risk Score, which was modified for 4 years of follow-up. Predicted probabilities and observed outcomes were compared using Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests and receiver-operator characteristic analyses. Changes in prediction power were investigated by expanding the German Diabetes Risk Score to include metabolic variables and by subgroup analyses. We found 58 cases of incident diabetes. The median 4-year probability of developing diabetes based on the German Diabetes Risk Score was 6.5%. The observed and predicted probabilities of developing diabetes were similar, although estimation was imprecise owing to the small number of cases, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test returned a poor correlation (chi-squared = 55.3; P = 5.8*10⁻¹²). The area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.70 (95% CI 0.64-0.77), and after excluding participants ≥66 years old, the AUC increased to 0.77 (95% CI 0.70-0.84). Consideration of glycaemic diagnostic variables, in addition to self-reported diabetes, reduced the AUC to 0.65 (95% CI 0.58-0.71). A new model that included the German Diabetes Risk Score and blood glucose concentration (AUC 0.81; 95% CI 0.76-0.86) or HbA(1c) concentration (AUC 0.84; 95% CI 0.80-0.91) was found to peform better. Application of the German Diabetes Risk Score in the CARLA cohort did not reproduce the findings in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) Potsdam study, which may be explained by cohort differences and model overfit in the latter; however, a high score does provide an indication of increased risk of diabetes. © 2013 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2013 Diabetes

Improvement of a Clinical Score for Necrotizing Fasciitis: 'Pain Out of Proportion' and High CRP Levels Aid the Diagnosis.

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Borschitz, Thomas; Schlicht, Svenja; Siegel, Ekkehard; Hanke, Eric; von Stebut, Esther

2015-01-01

Necrotizing fasciitis (NF) is a rare mono-/polymicrobial skin infection that spreads to underlying tissues. NF is quickly progressing and leads to life threatening situations. Immediate surgical debridement together with i.v. antibiotic administration is required to avoid fatal outcome. Early diagnosis is often delayed due to underestimation or confusion with cellulitis. We now compared the initial clinical and laboratory presentation of NF and cellulitis in detail to assess if a typical pattern can be identified that aids timely diagnosis of NF and avoidance of fatal outcome. 138 different clinical and laboratory features of 29 NF patients were compared to those of 59 age- and gender matched patients with severe erysipelas requiring a subsequent hospitalization time of ≥10 days. Differences in clinical presentation were not obvious; however, NF patients suffered significantly more often from strong pain. NF patients exhibited dramatically elevated CRP levels (5-fold, p>0.001). The overall laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing fasciitis (LRINEC) score was significantly higher in NF patients as compared to cellulitis. However, a modification of the score (alteration of laboratory parameters, addition of clinical parameters) led to a clear improvement of the score with a higher positive predictive value without losing specificity. In summary, clinical differentiation of NF from cellulitis appears to be hard. 'Pain out of proportion' may be an early sign for NF. An improvement of the LRINEC score emphasizing only relevant laboratory and clinical findings as suggested may aid the early diagnosis of NF in the future leading to improvement of disease outcome by enabling rapid adequate therapy.

Construction of an Exome-Wide Risk Score for Schizophrenia Based on a Weighted Burden Test.

Science.gov (United States)

Curtis, David

2018-01-01

Polygenic risk scores obtained as a weighted sum of associated variants can be used to explore association in additional data sets and to assign risk scores to individuals. The methods used to derive polygenic risk scores from common SNPs are not suitable for variants detected in whole exome sequencing studies. Rare variants, which may have major effects, are seen too infrequently to judge whether they are associated and may not be shared between training and test subjects. A method is proposed whereby variants are weighted according to their frequency, their annotations and the genes they affect. A weighted sum across all variants provides an individual risk score. Scores constructed in this way are used in a weighted burden test and are shown to be significantly different between schizophrenia cases and controls using a five-way cross-validation procedure. This approach represents a first attempt to summarise exome sequence variation into a summary risk score, which could be combined with risk scores from common variants and from environmental factors. It is hoped that the method could be developed further. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/University College London.

Clinical Risk Assessment in the Antiphospholipid Syndrome: Current Landscape and Emerging Biomarkers.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaturvedi, Shruti; McCrae, Keith R

2017-07-01

Laboratory criteria for the classification of antiphospholipid syndrome include the detection of a lupus anticoagulant and/or anticardiolipin and anti-β2-glycoprotein I antibodies. However, the majority of patients who test positive in these assays do not have thrombosis. Current risk-stratification tools are largely limited to the antiphospholipid antibody profile and traditional thrombotic risk factors. Novel biomarkers that correlate with disease activity and potentially provide insight into future clinical events include domain 1 specific anti-β 2 GPI antibodies, antibodies to other phospholipids or phospholipid/protein antigens (such as anti-PS/PT), and functional/biological assays such as thrombin generation, complement activation, levels of circulating microparticles, and annexin A5 resistance. Clinical risk scores may also have value in predicting clinical events. Biomarkers that predict thrombosis risk in patients with antiphospholipid antibodies have been long sought, and several biomarkers have been proposed. Ultimately, integration of biomarkers with established assays and clinical characteristics may offer the best chance of identifying patients at highest risk of APS-related complications.

Inclusion of Highest Glasgow Coma Scale Motor Component Score in Mortality Risk Adjustment for Benchmarking of Trauma Center Performance.

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Gomez, David; Byrne, James P; Alali, Aziz S; Xiong, Wei; Hoeft, Chris; Neal, Melanie; Subacius, Harris; Nathens, Avery B

2017-12-01

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) is the most widely used measure of traumatic brain injury (TBI) severity. Currently, the arrival GCS motor component (mGCS) score is used in risk-adjustment models for external benchmarking of mortality. However, there is evidence that the highest mGCS score in the first 24 hours after injury might be a better predictor of death. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of including the highest mGCS score on the performance of risk-adjustment models and subsequent external benchmarking results. Data were derived from the Trauma Quality Improvement Program analytic dataset (January 2014 through March 2015) and were limited to the severe TBI cohort (16 years or older, isolated head injury, GCS ≤8). Risk-adjustment models were created that varied in the mGCS covariates only (initial score, highest score, or both initial and highest mGCS scores). Model performance and fit, as well as external benchmarking results, were compared. There were 6,553 patients with severe TBI across 231 trauma centers included. Initial and highest mGCS scores were different in 47% of patients (n = 3,097). Model performance and fit improved when both initial and highest mGCS scores were included, as evidenced by improved C-statistic, Akaike Information Criterion, and adjusted R-squared values. Three-quarters of centers changed their adjusted odds ratio decile, 2.6% of centers changed outlier status, and 45% of centers exhibited a ≥0.5-SD change in the odds ratio of death after including highest mGCS score in the model. This study supports the concept that additional clinical information has the potential to not only improve the performance of current risk-adjustment models, but can also have a meaningful impact on external benchmarking strategies. Highest mGCS score is a good potential candidate for inclusion in additional models. Copyright © 2017 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of a self-assessment score for metabolic syndrome risk in non-obese Korean adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Je, Youjin; Kim, Youngyo; Park, Taeyoung

2017-03-01

There is a need for simple risk scores that identify individuals at high risk for metabolic syndrome (MetS). Therefore, this study was performed to develop and validate a self-assessment score for MetS risk in non-obese Korean adults. Data from the fourth Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHANES IV), 2007-2009 were used to develop a MetS risk score. We included a total of 5,508 non-obese participants aged 19-64 years who were free of a self-reported diagnosis of diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, stroke, angina, or cancer. Multivariable logistic regression model coefficients were used to assign each variable category a score. The validity of the score was assessed in an independent population survey performed in 2010 and 2011, KNHANES V (n=3,892). Age, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, dairy consumption, dietary habit of eating less salty and food insecurity were selected as categorical variables. The MetS risk score value varied from 0 to 13, and a cut-point MetS risk score of >=7 was selected based on the highest Youden index. The cut-point provided a sensitivity of 81%, specificity of 61%, positive predictive value of 14%, and negative predictive value of 98%, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78. Consistent results were obtained in the validation data sets. This simple risk score may be used to identify individuals at high risk for MetS without laboratory tests among non-obese Korean adults. Further studies are needed to verify the usefulness and feasibility of this score in various settings.

Usefulness of the Trabecular Bone Score for assessing the risk of osteoporotic fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

Redondo, L; Puigoriol, E; Rodríguez, J R; Peris, P; Kanterewicz, E

2018-04-01

The trabecular bone score (TBS) is an imaging technique that assesses the condition of the trabecular microarchitecture. Preliminary results suggest that TBS, along with the bone mineral density assessment, could improve the calculation of the osteoporotic fracture risk. The aim of this study was to analyse TBS values and their relationship with the clinical characteristics, bone mineral density and history of fractures of a cohort of posmenopausal women. We analysed 2,257 posmenopausal women from the FRODOS cohort, which was created to determine the risk factors for osteoporotic fracture through a clinical survey and bone densitometry with vertebral morphometry. TBS was applied to the densitometry images. TBS values ≤1230 were considered indicative of degraded microarchitecture. We performed a simple and multiple linear regression to determine the factors associated with this index. The mean TBS value in L1-L4 was 1.203±0.121. Some 55.3% of the women showed values indicating degraded microarchitecture. In the multiple linear regression analysis, the factors associated with low TBS values were age, weight, height, spinal T-score, glucocorticoid treatment, presence of type 2 diabetes and a history of fractures due to frailty. TBS showed microarchitecture degradation values in the participants of the FRODOS cohort and was associated with anthropometric factors, low bone mineral density values, the presence of fractures, a history of type 2 diabetes mellitus and the use of glucocorticoids. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and Sociedad Española de Medicina Interna (SEMI). All rights reserved.

The value of the CHA2DS2-VASc score for refining stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial fibrillation with a CHADS2 score 0-1

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olesen, Jonas Bjerring; Torp-Pedersen, Christian; Hansen, Morten Lock

2012-01-01

associated with increasing CHA2DS2-VASc score was estimated in Cox regression models adjusted for year of inclusion and antiplatelet therapy. The value of adding the extra CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to the CHADS2 score was evaluated by c-statistics, Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and Integrated......DS2-VASc score significantly improved the predictive value of the CHADS2 score alone and a CHA2DS2-VASc score=0 could clearly identify 'truly low risk' subjects. Use of the CHA2DS2-VASc score would significantly improve classification of AF patients at low and intermediate risk of stroke, compared......North American and European guidelines on atrial fibrillation (AF) are conflicting regarding the classification of patients at low/intermediate risk of stroke. We aimed to investigate if the CHA2DS2-VASc score improved risk stratification of AF patients with a CHADS2 score of 0-1. Using individual...

Framingham coronary heart disease risk score can be predicted from structural brain images in elderly subjects.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jane Maryam Rondina

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Recent literature has presented evidence that cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF play an important role on cognitive performance in elderly individuals, both those who are asymptomatic and those who suffer from symptoms of neurodegenerative disorders. Findings from studies applying neuroimaging methods have increasingly reinforced such notion. Studies addressing the impact of CVRF on brain anatomy changes have gained increasing importance, as recent papers have reported gray matter loss predominantly in regions traditionally affected in Alzheimer’s disease (AD and vascular dementia in the presence of a high degree of cardiovascular risk. In the present paper, we explore the association between CVRF and brain changes using pattern recognition techniques applied to structural MRI and the Framingham score (a composite measure of cardiovascular risk largely used in epidemiological studies in a sample of healthy elderly individuals. We aim to answer the following questions: Is it possible to decode (i.e., to learn information regarding cardiovascular risk from structural brain images enabling individual predictions? Among clinical measures comprising the Framingham score, are there particular risk factors that stand as more predictable from patterns of brain changes? Our main findings are threefold: i we verified that structural changes in spatially distributed patterns in the brain enable statistically significant prediction of Framingham scores. This result is still significant when controlling for the presence of the APOE 4 allele (an important genetic risk factor for both AD and cardiovascular disease. ii When considering each risk factor singly, we found different levels of correlation between real and predicted factors; however, single factors were not significantly predictable from brain images when considering APOE4 allele presence as covariate. iii We found important gender differences, and the possible causes of that finding are discussed.

Applicability of the heart failure Readmission Risk score: A first European study.

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Formiga, Francesc; Masip, Joan; Chivite, David; Corbella, Xavier

2017-06-01

The Readmission Risk score (RR score) has been considered useful to predict Medicare/Medicaid patients' likelihood of 30-day hospital readmission for heart failure (HF). To our knowledge, the accuracy of this prediction model has not been independently validated in other clinical circumstances in Europe. From July 2013 to December 2014, all patients who survived to a first admission due to decompensated HF at our tertiary care teaching hospital were retrospectively included in the study. The RR score was calculated in all patients to predict future 30 and 90-day unplanned all-cause readmissions. A total of 679 patients were included, of them, 52 patients (7.6%) were readmitted by any cause within 30days after discharge, and 98 (14.4%) within 90days. When compared, the average RR scores for patients readmitted was significantly higher to those who did not, either within 30days (22.7 vs. 20.1) or 90days (22.7 vs. 20.1) of discharge. The 30-day C-statistic was 0.649 (95% CI 0.574-0.723) and the 90-day 0.621 (95% CI 0.560-0.681). There was a significant increase in readmission percentages at 30 and 90days with respect to increasing quartiles of RR score. Our results only support a modest applicability of this predictive model in patients at 30 and 90days, after a first hospitalization for decompensated HF. Probably, the fact that our readmission rate in patients firstly admitted due to HF was very low, generated a bias in the study, discouraging the use of this score in the de novo HF patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

External Validation of Risk Prediction Scores for Invasive Candidiasis in a Medical/Surgical Intensive Care Unit: An Observational Study

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Armin; Baronia, Arvind Kumar; Azim, Afzal; Marak, Rungmei S. K.; Yadav, Reema; Sharma, Preeti; Gurjar, Mohan; Poddar, Banani; Singh, Ratender Kumar

2017-01-01

Background: The aim of this study was to conduct external validation of risk prediction scores for invasive candidiasis. Methods: We conducted a prospective observational study in a 12-bedded adult medical/surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) to evaluate Candida score >3, colonization index (CI) >0.5, corrected CI >0.4 (CCI), and Ostrosky's clinical prediction rule (CPR). Patients' characteristics and risk factors for invasive candidiasis were noted. Patients were divided into two groups; invasive candidiasis and no-invasive candidiasis. Results: Of 198 patients, 17 developed invasive candidiasis. Discriminatory power (area under receiver operator curve [AUROC]) for Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.66, 0.67, 0.63, and 0.62, respectively. A large number of patients in the no-invasive candidiasis group (114 out of 181) were exposed to antifungal agents during their stay in ICU. Subgroup analysis was carried out after excluding such patients from no-invasive candidiasis group. AUROC of Candida score, CI, CCI, and CPR were 0.7, 0.7, 0.65, and 0.72, respectively, and positive predictive values (PPVs) were in the range of 25%–47%, along with negative predictive values (NPVs) in the range of 84%–96% in the subgroup analysis. Conclusion: Currently available risk prediction scores have good NPV but poor PPV. They are useful for selecting patients who are not likely to benefit from antifungal therapy. PMID:28904481

Systemic risk score evaluation in ischemic stroke patients (SCALA): a prospective cross sectional study in 85 German stroke units.

Science.gov (United States)

Weimar, Christian; Goertler, Michael; Röther, Joachim; Ringelstein, E Bernd; Darius, Harald; Nabavi, Darius Günther; Kim, In-Ha; Theobald, Karlheinz; Diener, Han-Christoph

2007-11-01

Stratification of patients with transient ischemic attack (TIA) or ischemic stroke (IS) by risk of recurrent stroke can contribute to optimized secondary prevention. We therefore aimed to assess cardiovascular risk factor profiles of consecutive patients hospitalized with TIA/IS to stratify the risk of recurrent stroke according to the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) and of future cardiovascular events according to the ankle brachial index (ABI) as a marker of generalized atherosclerosis In this cross-sectional observational study, 85 neurological stroke units throughout Germany documented cardiovascular risk factor profiles of 10 consecutive TIA/IS patients on standardized questionnaires. Screening for PAD was done with Doppler ultrasonography to calculate the ABI. A total of 852 patients (57% men) with a mean age of 67+/-12.4 years were included of whom 82.9 % had IS. The median National Institutes of Health stroke sum score was 4 (TIA: 1). Arterial hypertension was reported in 71%, diabetes mellitus in 26%, clinical PAD in 10%, and an ABI or = 3 was observed in 58%, which in two previous retrospective analyses corresponded to a recurrent stroke risk of > or = 4%/year. The correlation between the ESRS and the ABI was low (r = 0.21). A high proportion of patients had asymptomatic atherosclerotic disease and a considerable risk of recurrent stroke according to the ABI and ESRS category. The prognostic accuracy as well as the potential benefit of various risk stratification scores in secondary stroke prevention require validation in a larger prospective study.

A Regularized Deep Learning Approach for Clinical Risk Prediction of Acute Coronary Syndrome Using Electronic Health Records.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong; Liu, Jiquan

2018-05-01

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), as a common and severe cardiovascular disease, is a leading cause of death and the principal cause of serious long-term disability globally. Clinical risk prediction of ACS is important for early intervention and treatment. Existing ACS risk scoring models are based mainly on a small set of hand-picked risk factors and often dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. This study develops a regularized stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE) model to stratify clinical risks of ACS patients from a large volume of electronic health records (EHR). To capture characteristics of patients at similar risk levels, and preserve the discriminating information across different risk levels, two constraints are added on SDAE to make the reconstructed feature representations contain more risk information of patients, which contribute to a better clinical risk prediction result. We validate our approach on a real clinical dataset consisting of 3464 ACS patient samples. The performance of our approach for predicting ACS risk remains robust and reaches 0.868 and 0.73 in terms of both AUC and accuracy, respectively. The obtained results show that the proposed approach achieves a competitive performance compared to state-of-the-art models in dealing with the clinical risk prediction problem. In addition, our approach can extract informative risk factors of ACS via a reconstructive learning strategy. Some of these extracted risk factors are not only consistent with existing medical domain knowledge, but also contain suggestive hypotheses that could be validated by further investigations in the medical domain.

Risk scores for diabetes and impaired glycaemia in the Middle East and North Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Handlos, Line Neerup; Witte, Daniel Rinse; Almdal, Thomas Peter

2013-01-01

AIMS: To develop risk scores for diabetes and diabetes or impaired glycaemia for individuals living in the Middle East and North Africa region. In addition, to derive national risk scores for Algeria, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and to compare the performance of the regional risk...

Concordance of Motion Sensor and Clinician-Rated Fall Risk Scores in Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Elledge, Julie

2017-12-01

As the older adult population in the United States continues to grow, developing reliable, valid, and practical methods for identifying fall risk is a high priority. Falls are prevalent in older adults and contribute significantly to morbidity and mortality rates and rising health costs. Identifying at-risk older adults and intervening in a timely manner can reduce falls. Conventional fall risk assessment tools require a health professional trained in the use of each tool for administration and interpretation. Motion sensor technology, which uses three-dimensional cameras to measure patient movements, is promising for assessing older adults' fall risk because it could eliminate or reduce the need for provider oversight. The purpose of this study was to assess the concordance of fall risk scores as measured by a motion sensor device, the OmniVR Virtual Rehabilitation System, with clinician-rated fall risk scores in older adult outpatients undergoing physical rehabilitation. Three standardized fall risk assessments were administered by the OmniVR and by a clinician. Validity of the OmniVR was assessed by measuring the concordance between the two assessment methods. Stability of the OmniVR fall risk ratings was assessed by measuring test-retest reliability. The OmniVR scores showed high concordance with the clinician-rated scores and high stability over time, demonstrating comparability with provider measurements.

Late-Onset Alzheimer's Disease Polygenic Risk Profile Score Predicts Hippocampal Function.

Science.gov (United States)

Xiao, Ena; Chen, Qiang; Goldman, Aaron L; Tan, Hao Yang; Healy, Kaitlin; Zoltick, Brad; Das, Saumitra; Kolachana, Bhaskar; Callicott, Joseph H; Dickinson, Dwight; Berman, Karen F; Weinberger, Daniel R; Mattay, Venkata S

2017-11-01

We explored the cumulative effect of several late-onset Alzheimer's disease (LOAD) risk loci using a polygenic risk profile score (RPS) approach on measures of hippocampal function, cognition, and brain morphometry. In a sample of 231 healthy control subjects (19-55 years of age), we used an RPS to study the effect of several LOAD risk loci reported in a recent meta-analysis on hippocampal function (determined by its engagement with blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance imaging during episodic memory) and several cognitive metrics. We also studied effects on brain morphometry in an overlapping sample of 280 subjects. There was almost no significant association of LOAD-RPS with cognitive or morphometric measures. However, there was a significant negative relationship between LOAD-RPS and hippocampal function (familywise error [small volume correction-hippocampal region of interest] p risk score based on APOE haplotype, and for a combined LOAD-RPS + APOE haplotype risk profile score (p risk genes on hippocampal function even in healthy volunteers. The effect of LOAD-RPS on hippocampal function in the relative absence of any effect on cognitive and morphometric measures is consistent with the reported temporal characteristics of LOAD biomarkers with the earlier manifestation of synaptic dysfunction before morphometric and cognitive changes. Copyright © 2017 Society of Biological Psychiatry. All rights reserved.

Comparison between the Framingham and prospective cardiovascular of Münster scores for risk assessment of coronary heart disease in human immunodeficiency virus-positive patients in Pernambuco, Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Barros, Zoraya Medeiros; de Alencar Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes; Miranda-Filho, Demócrito Barros; de Albuquerque, Maria de Fátima Pessoa Militão; Melo, Heloísa Ramos Lacerda; Carvalho, Erico Higino; Gelenske, Thais; Diniz, George; Bandeira, Francisco

2010-12-01

The Framingham score is used in most studies on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive patients to estimate the risk for coronary heart disease; however, it may have some limitations for detecting risk among these individuals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the agreement between the Framingham and Prospective Cardiovascular of Münster (PROCAM) scores among HIV-positive individuals and to investigate the factors associated with disagreement between the two scores. A cross-sectional study was conducted in a population of HIV/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) patients attending the outpatient's clinics of two reference centers for HIV/AIDS in Pernambuco, Brazil. Agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores was evaluated using the kappa index. From this analysis, a variable called "disagreement between scores" was created, and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to investigate the factors associated with this variable. The prevalence of low, moderate, and high risk were, respectively, 78.7%, 13.5%, and 7.8% by Framingham score and 88.5%, 4.3%, and 7.2% by PROCAM (kappa = 0.64, P ≤ 0.0001). Agreement in the subgroup with metabolic syndrome by the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) (kappa = 0.51, P ≤ 0.0001) and the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) (kappa = 0.59, P ≤ 0.0001) criteria was moderate. The Framingham score identified greater proportion of women with moderate risk. Factors independently associated with disagreement were: smoking, sex, age, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, diastolic blood pressure, and metabolic syndrome. There was a good agreement between the Framingham and PROCAM scores in HIV-positive patients, but a higher proportion of moderate-high risk was identified by the Framingham score. This disagreement should be evaluated in cohort studies to observe clinical outcomes over the course of time.

Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

Science.gov (United States)

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2017-07-01

Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparison of Oncotype DX® Recurrence Score® with other risk assessment tools including the Nottingham Prognostic Index in the identification of patients with low-risk invasive breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Cotter, Maura Bríd; Dakin, Alex; Maguire, Aoife; Walshe, Janice M; Kennedy, M John; Dunne, Barbara; Riain, Ciarán Ó; Quinn, Cecily M

2017-09-01

Oncotype DX® is a gene expression assay that quantifies the risk of distant recurrence in patients with hormone receptor positive early breast cancer, publicly funded in Ireland since 2011. The aim of this study was to correlate Oncotype DX® risk groupings with traditional histopathological parameters and the results of other risk assessment tools including Recurrence Score-Pathology-Clinical (RSPC), Adjuvant Risk Index (Adj RI), Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) and the Adjuvant! Online 10-year score (AO). Patients were retrospectively identified from the histopathology databases of two Irish hospitals and patient and tumour characteristics collated. Associations between categorical variables were evaluated with Pearson's chi-square test. Correlations were calculated using Spearman's correlation coefficient and concordance using Lin's concordance correlation coefficient. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software, version 22.0.In our 300 patient cohort, Oncotype DX® classified 59.7% (n = 179) as low, 30% (n = 90) as intermediate, and 10.3% (n = 31) as high risk. Overall concordance between the RS and RSPC, Adj RI, NPI, and AO was 67.3% (n = 202), 56.3% (n = 169), 59% (n = 177), and 36.3% (n = 109), respectively. All risk assessment tools classified the majority of patients as low risk apart from the AO 10-year score, with RSPC classifying the highest number of patients as low risk. This study demonstrates that there is good correlation between the RS and scores obtained using alternative risk tools. Concordance with NPI is strong, particularly in the low-risk group. NPI, calculated from traditional clinicopathological characteristics, is a reliable alternative to Oncotype DX® in the identification of low-risk patients who may avoid adjuvant chemotherapy.

Clinical score and arterial oxygen saturation in children with wheezing associated respiratory illness (WARI).

Science.gov (United States)

Sritippayawan, S; Deerojanawong, J; Prapphal, N

2000-10-01

To determine the correlation between clinical score (based on respiratory rate, chest wall retractions, air entry, wheezing, consciousness and audible wheezing) and arterial oxygen saturation (SaO2: measured by pulse oximetry) as well as the most appropriate total score for predicting hypoxemia (SaO2 WARI). 70 children (1 month-5 years old) hospitalized in the Department of Pediatrics, Chulalongkorn Hospital with the diagnosis of WARI from January 1, 1996 to December 31, 1996 were studied. Half of them were diagnosed to have acute lower respiratory tract infection (LRI) with wheezing while the remainder had reactive airway disease (RAD). Cross sectional, analytical study. In each group of patients, the clinical score and SaO2 were assessed by the same pediatrician throughout the study. The correlation between the clinical signs and SaO2 as well as the cut off point of total score for predicting hypoxemia were analyzed. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of that total score in predicting hypoxemia were also calculated. In both groups of patients (acute LRI with wheezing and RAD group), the clinical signs correlated with SaO2 were wheezing (rs = -0.67 and -0.47 respectively) and chest wall retractions (rs = -0.57 and -0.59 respectively). Total score was also correlated with SaO2 (rs = -0.68 and -0.5 respectively). The cut off point of total score in predicting hypoxemia was 4 providing 80 per cent sensitivity in both groups with accuracy 74.3 per cent and 80 per cent respectively. This clinical score may be used to assess the severity of hypoxemia in WARI patients. Wheezing, chest wall retractions and total score correlated well with SaO2. The total score > 4 was most appropriate in predicting hypoxemia in both children with RAD and wheezing associated with LRI.

Polygenic risk score is associated with increased disease risk in 52 Finnish breast cancer families

OpenAIRE

Muranen, Taru A.; Mavaddat, Nasim; Khan, Sofia; Fagerholm, Rainer; Pelttari, Liisa; Lee, Andrew; Aittom?ki, Kristiina; Blomqvist, Carl; Easton, Douglas F.; Nevanlinna, Heli

2016-01-01

The risk of developing breast cancer is increased in women with family history of breast cancer and particularly in families with multiple cases of breast or ovarian cancer. Nevertheless, many women with a positive family history never develop the disease. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) based on the risk effects of multiple common genetic variants have been proposed for individual risk assessment on a population level. We investigate the applicability of the PRS for risk prediction within breas...

[Carotid intima-media thickness distribution according to the stratification of cardiovascular risk by means of Framingham-REGICOR and score function charts].

Science.gov (United States)

Hermida-Ameijeiras, Á; López-Paz, J E; Riveiro-Cruz, M A; Calvo-Gómez, C

2016-01-01

Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) has been suggested as a further tool for risk function charts. The aim of this study was to describethe relationship between cIMT and cardiovascular risk (CVR) estimation according to Framingham-REGICOR and SCORE equations. Observational, cross-sectional cohort study from 362 hypertensive subjects. Demographic and clinical information were collected as well as laboratory, ultrasonographic and CVR estimation by the Framingham-REGICOR and SCORE functions. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software (version 20,0). To analyze the data, statistical tests such as Chi-square, T-test, ANOVA, and Pearson correlation coefficient were used. According to both functions, differences on mean cIMT were found between low CVR group and intermediate to high groups. No differences were found between intermediate and high risk groups (cIMT: 0,73mm low risk patients vs. 0,89 or 0,88mm respectively according to SCORE function and cIMT: 0,73 vs. 0,85 or 0,87mm respectively according to Framingham-REGICOR function). cIMT correlated positively with CVR estimation according to both SCORE (r=0,421; P<.01), and Framingham-REGICOR functions (r=0,363; P<.01). cIMT correlates positively with CVR estimated by SCORE and Framingham-REGICOR functions. cIMT in those subjects at intermediate risk is similar to those at high risk. Our findings highlight the importance of carotid ultrasound in identifying silent target-organ damage in those patients at intermediate CVR. Copyright © 2015 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Reliability Generalization: Exploring Variation of Reliability Coefficients of MMPI Clinical Scales Scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Vacha-Haase, Tammi; Kogan, Lori R.; Tani, Crystal R.; Woodall, Renee A.

2001-01-01

Used reliability generalization to explore the variance of scores on 10 Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) clinical scales drawing on 1,972 articles in the literature on the MMPI. Results highlight the premise that scores, not tests, are reliable or unreliable, and they show that study characteristics do influence scores on the…

High Framingham risk score decreases quality of life in adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Yosaputra

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors, such as diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, smoking, and obesity tend to occur together in the general population. Increasing prevalence of multiple CVD risk factors has been related to increased risk of death from coronary heart disease and stroke. Studies have suggested that people with several risk factors of CVD may have impaired health-related quality of life. The objective of this study was to assess the association of CVD risk factors with quality of life (QOL among adults aged 40 to 65 years. A cross-sectional study was conducted involving 220 subjects 40 - 65 years of age at a health center. The CVD risk factors were assessed using the Framingham risk score that is the standard instrument for assessment of the risk of a first cardiac event. The risk factors assessed were age, smoking, blood pressure, total cholesterol and high density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations. QOL was assessed by means of the WHOQOL-BREF instrument that had been prevalidated. The results of the study showed that 28.2% of subjects were smokers, 56.4% had stage 1 hypertension, 42.8% high total cholesterol and 13.6% low HDL cholesterol. The high risk group amounted to 45.5% and 42.3% constitued an intermediate risk group. High CVD risk scores were significantly associated with a low QOL for all domains (physical, psychological, social and environment (p=0.000. Preventing or reducing the multiple CVD risk factors to improve QOL is necessary among adults.

Severe Spontaneous Echo Contrast/Auricolar Thrombosis in "Nonvalvular" AF: Value of Thromboembolic Risk Scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Mascioli, Giosuè; Lucca, Elena; Michelotti, Federica; Alioto, Giusy; Santoro, Franco; Belli, Guido; Rota, Cristina; Ornago, Ombretta; Sirianni, Giovanni; Pulcini, Emanuela; Pennesi, Matteo; Savasta, Carlo; Russo, Rosario; Pitì, Antonino

2017-01-01

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have an increased thromboembolic risk that can be estimated with risk scores and sometimes require oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT). Despite correct anticoagulation, some patients still develop left atrial spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) or thrombosis. The value of traditional risk scores (R 2 CHADS 2 , CHADS 2 , and CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc) in predicting such events remains controversial. The aim of our study was to explore variables linked to severe SEC or atrial thrombosis and evaluate the performance of traditional risk scores in identifying these patients. In order to do this, we retrospectively analyzed 568 patients with nonvalvular nonparoxysmal AF who underwent electrical cardioversion from January 2011 to December 2016 after OAT for a minimum of 4 weeks. A transesophageal echocardiogram was performed in 265 patients for various indications, and 24 exhibited left atrial SEC or thrombosis. Female gender, history of heart failure or left ventricular ejection fraction 1 mg/dL) of C-reactive protein (CRP) were independently associated with left atrial SEC/thrombosis. A score composed by these factors (denominated HIS [Heart Failure, Inflammation, and female Sex]) showed a sensitivity of 79% and a specificity of 60% (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.695, P = 0.002) in identifying patients with a positive transesophageal echo; traditional risk scores did not perform as well. In patients with persistent AF and suboptimal anticoagulation, a risk score composed by history of heart failure, high CRP, and female gender identifies patients at high risk of left atrial SEC/thrombosis when its value is >1. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Establishing a family risk assessment clinic for breast cancer.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Mulsow, Jurgen

2012-02-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer affecting European women and the leading cause of cancer-related death. A total of 15-20% of women who develop breast cancer have a family history and 5-10% a true genetic predisposition. The identification and screening of women at increased risk may allow early detection of breast cancer and improve prognosis. We established a family risk assessment clinic in May 2005 to assess and counsel women with a family history of breast cancer, to initiate surveillance, and to offer risk-reducing strategies for selected high-risk patients. Patients at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer according to NICE guidelines were accepted. Family history was determined by structured questionnaire and interview. Lifetime risk of developing breast cancer was calculated using Claus and Tyrer-Cuzick scoring. Risk of carrying a breast cancer-related gene mutation was calculated using the Manchester system. One thousand two hundred and forty-three patients have been referred. Ninety-two percent were at medium or high risk of developing breast cancer. Formal assessment of risk has been performed in 368 patients, 73% have a high lifetime risk of developing breast cancer, and 72% a Manchester score >or=16. BRCA1\\/2 mutations have been identified in 14 patients and breast cancer diagnosed in two. Our initial experience of family risk assessment has shown there to be a significant demand for this service. Identification of patients at increased risk of developing breast cancer allows us to provide individuals with accurate risk profiles, and enables patients to make informed choices regarding their follow-up and management.

Clinical risk analysis with failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) model in a dialysis unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonfant, Giovanna; Belfanti, Pietro; Paternoster, Giuseppe; Gabrielli, Danila; Gaiter, Alberto M; Manes, Massimo; Molino, Andrea; Pellu, Valentina; Ponzetti, Clemente; Farina, Massimo; Nebiolo, Pier E

2010-01-01

The aim of clinical risk management is to improve the quality of care provided by health care organizations and to assure patients' safety. Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is a tool employed for clinical risk reduction. We applied FMEA to chronic hemodialysis outpatients. FMEA steps: (i) process study: we recorded phases and activities. (ii) Hazard analysis: we listed activity-related failure modes and their effects; described control measures; assigned severity, occurrence and detection scores for each failure mode and calculated the risk priority numbers (RPNs) by multiplying the 3 scores. Total RPN is calculated by adding single failure mode RPN. (iii) Planning: we performed a RPNs prioritization on a priority matrix taking into account the 3 scores, and we analyzed failure modes causes, made recommendations and planned new control measures. (iv) Monitoring: after failure mode elimination or reduction, we compared the resulting RPN with the previous one. Our failure modes with the highest RPN came from communication and organization problems. Two tools have been created to ameliorate information flow: "dialysis agenda" software and nursing datasheets. We scheduled nephrological examinations, and we changed both medical and nursing organization. Total RPN value decreased from 892 to 815 (8.6%) after reorganization. Employing FMEA, we worked on a few critical activities, and we reduced patients' clinical risk. A priority matrix also takes into account the weight of the control measures: we believe this evaluation is quick, because of simple priority selection, and that it decreases action times.

Personalized Prognostic Risk Score for Long-Term Survival for Children with Acute Leukemia after Allogeneic Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Bitan, Menachem; Ahn, Kwang Woo; Millard, Heather R; Pulsipher, Michael A; Abdel-Azim, Hisham; Auletta, Jeffery J; Brown, Valerie; Chan, Ka Wah; Diaz, Miguel Angel; Dietz, Andrew; Vincent, Marta González; Guilcher, Gregory; Hale, Gregory A; Hayashi, Robert J; Keating, Amy; Mehta, Parinda; Myers, Kasiani; Page, Kristin; Prestidge, Tim; Shah, Nirali N; Smith, Angela R; Woolfrey, Ann; Thiel, Elizabeth; Davies, Stella M; Eapen, Mary

2017-09-01

We studied leukemia-free (LFS) and overall survival (OS) in children with acute myeloid (AML, n = 790) and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL, n = 1096) who underwent transplantation between 2000 and 2010 and who survived for at least 1 year in remission after related or unrelated donor transplantation. Analysis of patient-, disease-, and transplantation characteristics and acute and chronic graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) was performed to identify factors with adverse effects on LFS and OS. These data were used to develop risk scores for survival. We did not identify any prognostic factors beyond 4 years after transplantation for AML and beyond 3 years for ALL. Risk score for survival for AML includes age, disease status at transplantation, cytogenetic risk group, and chronic GVHD. For ALL, the risk score includes age at transplantation and chronic GVHD. The 10-year probabilities of OS for AML with good (score 0, 1, or 2), intermediate (score 3), and poor risk (score 4, 5, 6, or 7) were 94%, 87%, and 68%, respectively. The 10-year probabilities of OS for ALL were 89% and 80% for good (score 0 or 1) and poor risk (score 2), respectively. Identifying children at risk for late mortality with early intervention may mitigate some excess late mortality. Copyright © 2017 The American Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention.

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Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B

2013-06-01

This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mocroft, Amanda; Lundgren, Jens D; Ross, Michael

2015-01-01

antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice. METHODS...

Where to Sit? Type of Sitting Matters for the Framingham Cardiovascular Risk Score

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Katja Borodulin

2016-08-01

Full Text Available Background: Current evidence on associations of type-specific sedentary behavior with cardiovascular disease (CVD is limited to mainly screen-time sedentary behavior (SB. We aimed to study the associations of type-specific and total time spent sitting with the Framingham 10-year cardiovascular disease risk score (Framingham score in Finnish adults. Methods: Data comprise the National FINRISK 2007 and 2012 health examination surveys with 10,185 participants aged 25-74 years, apparently free of CVD. Participants reported average daily time spent sitting in different locations: work-related sitting, at home in front of television (TV, at home in front of computer, in a vehicle, and elsewhere. Total SB time was calculated from these context-specific self-reports. Accelerometer-based sedentary time was assessed in 988 FINRISK 2012 participants. Framingham score was calculated using information on blood pressure and its medication, cholesterol levels, age, diabetes status, and smoking. Analyses were adjusted for age, study year, education, employment status, leisure time physical activity, and body mass index. Results: Out of several type-specific sitting behaviors, only TV sitting showed systematic associations with the Framingham score in both genders. The lowest Framingham risk was found for TV sitting from 6 minutes to less than 1 hour daily. Of other types of sitting, computer sitting was inversely associated with the Framingham risk in men only. Total self-reported sitting time did not show significant associations with the Framingham score, but instead higher objectively assessed sedentary time showed higher Framingham risk in men. Conclusions: TV sitting showed most systematic associations with CVD risk score. This suggests that of all types of SB, reducing TV sitting should be targeted for reducing CVD risk.

Risk score prediction model for dementia in patients with type 2 diabetes.

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Li, Chia-Ing; Li, Tsai-Chung; Liu, Chiu-Shong; Liao, Li-Na; Lin, Wen-Yuan; Lin, Chih-Hsueh; Yang, Sing-Yu; Chiang, Jen-Huai; Lin, Cheng-Chieh

2018-03-30

No study established a prediction dementia model in the Asian populations. This study aims to develop a prediction model for dementia in Chinese type 2 diabetes patients. This retrospective cohort study included 27,540 Chinese type 2 diabetes patients (aged 50-94 years) enrolled in Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program. Participants were randomly allocated into derivation and validation sets at 2:1 ratio. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify risk factors for dementia in the derivation set. Steps proposed by Framingham Heart Study were used to establish a prediction model with a scoring system. The average follow-up was 8.09 years, with a total of 853 incident dementia cases in derivation set. Dementia risk score summed up the individual scores (from 0 to 20). The areas under curve of 3-, 5-, and 10-year dementia risks were 0.82, 0.79, and 0.76 in derivation set and 0.84, 0.80, and 0.75 in validation set, respectively. The proposed score system is the first dementia risk prediction model for Chinese type 2 diabetes patients in Taiwan. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Thyrotropin Suppressive Therapy for Low-Risk Small Thyroid Cancer: A Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Study.

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Park, Suyeon; Kim, Won Gu; Han, Minkyu; Jeon, Min Ji; Kwon, Hyemi; Kim, Mijin; Sung, Tae-Yon; Kim, Tae Yong; Kim, Won Bae; Hong, Suck Joon; Shong, Young Kee

2017-09-01

Thyrotropin (TSH) suppression has improved the clinical outcomes of patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). However, the efficacy of TSH suppressive therapy (TST) is unclear in patients with low-risk DTC. This study aimed to evaluate the efficacy of TST and optimal TSH levels of patients with low-risk DTC. This retrospective propensity score-matched cohort study included DTC patients (n = 446) who underwent lobectomy from 2002 to 2008 with or without TST (TST group and No-TST group). Disease-free survival (DFS) and dynamic risk stratification were compared between both groups using serum TSH levels. Approximately 74% of TST patients and 11% of No-TST patients had suppressed serum TSH levels (<2 mIU/L). The median follow-up period was 8.6 years. During follow-up, the disease recurred in 10 (2.7%) patients, with no significant difference in DFS between the groups (p = 0.63). The proportion of patients with excellent treatment response was similar between the TST (65.2%) and No-TST (64.4%) groups. Incomplete biochemical response was noted in 17.2% of the TST group patients and 9.4% of the No-TST group patients. No significant difference was observed in the DFS between both groups by comparing serum TSH level (p = 0.57). TST did not improve clinical outcomes, and serum TSH levels were not associated with recurrence in patients with low-risk small DTC. No clinical benefits were shown for TSH suppression in low-risk patients who underwent lobectomy. Thus, levothyroxine is not necessary for patients without evidence of hypothyroidism.

Screening applicants for risk of poor academic performance: a novel scoring system using preadmission grade point averages and graduate record examination scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Luce, David

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an effective screening tool for identifying physician assistant (PA) program applicants at highest risk for poor academic performance. Prior to reviewing applications for the class of 2009, a retrospective analysis of preadmission data took place for the classes of 2006, 2007, and 2008. A single composite score was calculated for each student who matriculated (number of subjects, N=228) incorporating the total undergraduate grade point average (UGPA), the science GPA (SGPA), and the three component Graduate Record Examination (GRE) scores: verbal (GRE-V), quantitative (GRE-Q), analytical (GRE-A). Individual applicant scores for each of the five parameters were ranked in descending quintiles. Each applicant's five quintile scores were then added, yielding a total quintile score ranging from 25, which indicated an excellent performance, to 5, which indicated poorer performance. Thirteen of the 228 students had academic difficulty (dismissal, suspension, or one-quarter on academic warning or probation). Twelve of the 13 students having academic difficulty had a preadmission total quintile score 12 (range, 6-14). In response to this descriptive analysis, when selecting applicants for the class of 2009, the admissions committee used the total quintile score for screening applicants for interviews. Analysis of correlations in preadmission, graduate, and postgraduate performance data for the classes of 2009-2013 will continue and may help identify those applicants at risk for academic difficulty. Establishing a threshold total quintile score of applicant GPA and GRE scores may significantly decrease the number of entering PA students at risk for poor academic performance.

Quarter and cow risk factors associated with the occurrence of clinical mastitis in dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

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Breen, J E; Green, M J; Bradley, A J

2009-06-01

Quarter and cow risk factors associated with the development of clinical mastitis (CM) during lactation were investigated during a 12-mo longitudinal study on 8 commercial Holstein-Friesian dairy farms in the southwest of England. The individual risk factors studied on 1,677 cows included assessments of udder and leg hygiene, teat-end callosity, and hyperkeratosis; body condition score; and measurements of monthly milk quality and yield. Several outcome variables for CM were used for statistical analysis, which included use of generalized linear mixed models. Significant covariates associated with an increased risk of CM were increasing parity, decreasing month of lactation, cows with very dirty udders, and quarters with only very severe hyperkeratosis of the teat-end. Thin and moderate smooth teat-end callosity scores were not associated with an increased risk for CM. Cows that recorded a somatic cell count >199,000 cells/mL and a milk protein percentage cow body condition score and incidence of CM. Of the cases of CM available for culture, 171 (26.7%) were confirmed as being caused by Escherichia coli and 121 (18.9%) confirmed as being caused by Streptococcus uberis. Quarters with moderate and very severe hyperkeratosis of the teat-end were at significantly increased risk of clinical E. coli mastitis before the next visit. Quarters with very severe hyperkeratosis of the teat-end were significantly more likely to develop clinical Strep. uberis mastitis before the next visit. There were strong trends within the data to suggest an association between very dirty udders (an increased risk of clinical E. coli mastitis) and teat-ends with no callosity ring present (an increased risk of clinical Strep. uberis mastitis). These results highlight the importance of individual quarter- and cow-level risk factors in determining the risk of CM associated with environmental pathogens during lactation.

Spine-hip T-score difference predicts major osteoporotic fracture risk independent of FRAX(®): a population-based report from CAMOS.

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Leslie, William D; Kovacs, Christopher S; Olszynski, Wojciech P; Towheed, Tanveer; Kaiser, Stephanie M; Prior, Jerilynn C; Josse, Robert G; Jamal, Sophie A; Kreiger, Nancy; Goltzman, David

2011-01-01

The WHO fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX(®)) estimates an individual's 10-yr major osteoporotic and hip fracture probabilities. When bone mineral density (BMD) is included in the FRAX calculation, only the femoral neck measurement can be used. Recently, a procedure was reported for adjusting major osteoporotic fracture probability from FRAX with femoral neck BMD based on the difference (offset) between the lumbar spine and the femoral neck T-score values. The objective of the current analysis was to independently evaluate this algorithm in a population-based cohort of 4575 women and 1813 men aged 50 yr and older from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study. For women and men combined, there was a 15% (95% confidence interval 7-24%) increase in major osteoporotic fracture risk for each offset T-score after adjusting for FRAX probability calculated with femoral neck BMD. The effect was stronger in women than men, but a significant sex interaction was not detected. Among the full cohort, 5.5% had their risk category reclassified after using the offset adjustment. Sex- and age-dependent offsets (equivalent to an offset based on Z-scores) showed improved risk classification among individuals designated to be at moderate risk with the conventional FRAX probability measurement. In summary, the T-score difference between the lumbar spine and femoral neck is an independent risk factor for major osteoporotic fractures that is independent of the FRAX probability calculated with femoral neck BMD. Copyright © 2011 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development of an interstitial cystitis risk score for bladder permeability.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura E Lamb

Full Text Available Interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome (IC is a multifactorial syndrome of severe pelvic and genitalia pain and compromised urinary function; a subset of IC patients present with Hunner's lesions or ulcers on their bladder walls (UIC. UIC is diagnosed by cystoscopy, which may be quite painful. The objective of this study was to determine if a calculated Bladder Permeability Defect Risk Score (BP-RS based on non-invasive urinary cytokines could discriminate UIC patients from controls and IC patients without Hunner's ulcers.A national crowdsourcing effort targeted IC patients and age-matched controls to provide urine samples. Urinary cytokine levels for GRO, IL-6, and IL-8 were determined using a Luminex assay.We collected 448 urine samples from 46 states consisting of 153 IC patients (147 female, 6 male, of which 54 UIC patients (50 females, 4 male, 159 female controls, and 136 male controls. A defined BP-RS was calculated to classify UIC, or a bladder permeability defect etiology, with 89% validity.The BP-RS Score quantifies UIC risk, indicative of a bladder permeability defect etiology in a subset of IC patients. The Bladder Permeability Defect Risk Score is the first validated urine biomarker assay for interstitial cystitis/bladder pain syndrome.

A Novel Risk Score in Predicting Failure or Success for Antegrade Approach to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention of Chronic Total Occlusion: Antegrade CTO Score.

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Namazi, Mohammad Hasan; Serati, Ali Reza; Vakili, Hosein; Safi, Morteza; Parsa, Saeed Ali Pour; Saadat, Habibollah; Taherkhani, Maryam; Emami, Sepideh; Pedari, Shamseddin; Vatanparast, Masoomeh; Movahed, Mohammad Reza

2017-06-01

Total occlusion of a coronary artery for more than 3 months is defined as chronic total occlusion (CTO). The goal of this study was to develop a risk score in predicting failure or success during attempted percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of CTO lesions using antegrade approach. This study was based on retrospective analyses of clinical and angiographic characteristics of CTO lesions that were assessed between February 2012 and February 2014. Success rate was defined as passing through occlusion with successful stent deployment using an antegrade approach. A total of 188 patients were studied. Mean ± SD age was 59 ± 9 years. Failure rate was 33%. In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis, bridging collaterals (OR = 6.7, CI = 1.97-23.17, score = 2), absence of stump (OR = 5.8, CI = 1.95-17.9, score = 2), presence of calcification (OR = 3.21, CI = 1.46-7.07, score = 1), presence of bending (OR = 2.8, CI = 1.28-6.10, score = 1), presence of near side branch (OR = 2.7, CI = 1.08-6.57, score = 1), and absence of retrograde filling (OR = 2.5, CI = 1.03-6.17, score = 1) were independent predictors of PCI failure. A score of 7 or more was associated with 100% failure rate whereas a score of 2 or less was associated with over 80% success rate. Most factors associated with failure of CTO-PCI are related to lesion characteristics. A new risk score (range 0-8) is developed to predict CTO-PCI success or failure rate during antegrade approach as a guide before attempting PCI of CTO lesions.

Prognostic Value of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T Compared with Risk Scores in Stable Cardiovascular Disease.

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Biener, Moritz; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Kuhner, Manuel; Zelniker, Thomas; Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Vafaie, Mehrshad; Trenk, Dietmar; Neumann, Franz-Josef; Hochholzer, Willibald; Katus, Hugo A

2017-05-01

Risk stratification of patients with cardiovascular disease remains challenging despite consideration of risk scores. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T in a low-risk outpatient population presenting for nonsecondary and secondary prevention. All-cause mortality, a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke (end point 2), and a composite of all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, stroke and rehospitalization for acute coronary syndrome, and decompensated heart failure (end point 3) were defined. The prognostic performance of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T on index visit was compared with the PROCAM score and 3 FRAMINGHAM subscores. In 693 patients with a median follow-up of 796 days, we observed 16 deaths, 32 patients with end point 2, and 83 patients with end point 3. All risk scores performed better in the prediction of all-cause mortality in nonsecondary prevention (area under the curve [AUC]: PROCAM: 0.922 vs 0.523, P = .001, consistent for all other scores). In secondary prevention, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T outperformed all risk scores in the prediction of all-cause mortality (ΔAUC: PROCAM: 0.319, P risk scores. Our findings on the prediction of all-cause mortality compared with the FRAMINGHAM-Hard Coronary Heart Disease score were confirmed in an independent validation cohort on 2046 patients. High-sensitivity troponin T provides excellent risk stratification regarding all-cause mortality and all-cause mortality, acute myocardial infarction, and stroke in a secondary prevention cohort in whom risk scores perform poorly. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The New York risk score for in-hospital and 30-day mortality for coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

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Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Wechsler, Andrew; Jordan, Desmond; Lahey, Stephen J; Culliford, Alfred T; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R

2013-01-01

Simplified risk scores for coronary artery bypass graft surgery are frequently in lieu of more complicated statistical models and are valuable for informed consent and choice of intervention. Previous risk scores have been based on in-hospital mortality, but a substantial number of patients die within 30 days of the procedure. These deaths should also be accounted for, so we have developed a risk score based on in-hospital and 30-day mortality. New York's Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital and 30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery in 2009, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that provides estimated in-hospital and 30-day mortality rates for different values of the score. The accuracy of the risk score in predicting mortality was tested. This score was also validated by applying it to 2008 New York coronary artery bypass graft data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the risk score to predict complications and length of stay. The overall in-hospital and 30-day mortality rate for the 10,148 patients in the study was 1.79%. There are seven risk factors comprising the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 5, and the highest possible total score is 23. The score accurately predicted mortality in 2009 as well as in 2008, and was strongly correlated with complications and length of stay. The risk score is a simple way of estimating short-term mortality that accurately predicts mortality in the year the model was developed as well as in the previous year. Perioperative complications and length of stay are also well predicted by the risk score. Copyright © 2013 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a clinical score for prognosis ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Mortality rates among patients initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa continue high. Also HIV treatment services from the region are affronting the challenges of been attending more patients than never. In this scenario, there are no integrated scoring systems capable of an adequate risk ...

The Surgical Site Infection Risk Score (SSIRS: A Model to Predict the Risk of Surgical Site Infections.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carl van Walraven

Full Text Available Surgical site infections (SSI are an important cause of peri-surgical morbidity with risks that vary extensively between patients and surgeries. Quantifying SSI risk would help identify candidates most likely to benefit from interventions to decrease the risk of SSI.We randomly divided all surgeries recorded in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program from 2010 into a derivation and validation population. We used multivariate logistic regression to determine the independent association of patient and surgical covariates with the risk of any SSI (including superficial, deep, and organ space SSI within 30 days of surgery. To capture factors particular to specific surgeries, we developed a surgical risk score specific to all surgeries having a common first 3 numbers of their CPT code.Derivation (n = 181 894 and validation (n = 181 146 patients were similar for all demographics, past medical history, and surgical factors. Overall SSI risk was 3.9%. The SSI Risk Score (SSIRS found that risk increased with patient factors (smoking, increased body mass index, certain comorbidities (peripheral vascular disease, metastatic cancer, chronic steroid use, recent sepsis, and operative characteristics (surgical urgency; increased ASA class; longer operation duration; infected wounds; general anaesthesia; performance of more than one procedure; and CPT score. In the validation population, the SSIRS had good discrimination (c-statistic 0.800, 95% CI 0.795-0.805 and calibration.SSIRS can be calculated using patient and surgery information to estimate individual risk of SSI for a broad range of surgery types.

Cardiovascular risk prediction in HIV-infected patients: comparing the Framingham, atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD), Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) and Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) risk prediction models.

Science.gov (United States)

Krikke, M; Hoogeveen, R C; Hoepelman, A I M; Visseren, F L J; Arends, J E

2016-04-01

The aim of the study was to compare the predictions of five popular cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk prediction models, namely the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) model, the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) coronary heart disease (FHS-CHD) and general CVD (FHS-CVD) models, the American Heart Association (AHA) atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk score (ASCVD) model and the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation for the Netherlands (SCORE-NL) model. A cross-sectional design was used to compare the cumulative CVD risk predictions of the models. Furthermore, the predictions of the general CVD models were compared with those of the HIV-specific D:A:D model using three categories ( 20%) to categorize the risk and to determine the degree to which patients were categorized similarly or in a higher/lower category. A total of 997 HIV-infected patients were included in the study: 81% were male and they had a median age of 46 [interquartile range (IQR) 40-52] years, a known duration of HIV infection of 6.8 (IQR 3.7-10.9) years, and a median time on ART of 6.4 (IQR 3.0-11.5) years. The D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models gave a lower cumulative CVD risk, compared with that of the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models. Comparing the general CVD models with the D:A:D model, the FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD models only classified 65% and 79% of patients, respectively, in the same category as did the D:A:D model. However, for the ASCVD and SCORE-NL models, this percentage was 89% and 87%, respectively. Furthermore, FHS-CVD and FHS-CHD attributed a higher CVD risk to 33% and 16% of patients, respectively, while this percentage was D:A:D, ASCVD and SCORE-NL models. This could have consequences regarding overtreatment, drug-related adverse events and drug-drug interactions. © 2015 British HIV Association.

Chemotherapy Toxicity Risk Score for Treatment Decisions in Older Adults with Advanced Solid Tumors.

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Nishijima, Tomohiro F; Deal, Allison M; Williams, Grant R; Sanoff, Hanna K; Nyrop, Kirsten A; Muss, Hyman B

2018-05-01

The decision whether to treat older adults with advanced cancer with standard therapy (ST) or reduced therapy (RT) is complicated by heterogeneity in aging. We assessed the potential utility of the chemotherapy toxicity risk score (CTRS) [J Clin Oncol 2011;29:3457-3465] for treatment decisions in older adults. This was a prospective observational study of patients aged ≥65 years receiving first-line chemotherapy for advanced cancer for which combination chemotherapy is the standard of care. Patients were categorized as high risk (CTRS ≥10), for whom RT (dose-reduced combination or single-agent chemotherapy) is deemed appropriate, or nonhigh risk (CTRS statistic. Fifty-eight patients (median age, 71 years) were enrolled. Thirty-eight patients received ST (21 had CTRS advanced solid tumors receiving first-line chemotherapy was assessed. Little agreement was found between chemotherapy treatment decisions based on the clinical impression versus what was recommended based on the CTRS. Among patients treated with standard-dose combination chemotherapy, patients with CTRS ≥10 had a very high incidence of grade 3-4 toxicities and hospitalization, which was significantly greater than that of patients with a low CTRS (<10). These findings suggest that the addition of CTRS to the clinical impression has a potential to improve treatment decisions. © AlphaMed Press 2018.

Prediction of Adult Dyslipidemia Using Genetic and Childhood Clinical Risk Factors: The Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study.

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Nuotio, Joel; Pitkänen, Niina; Magnussen, Costan G; Buscot, Marie-Jeanne; Venäläinen, Mikko S; Elo, Laura L; Jokinen, Eero; Laitinen, Tomi; Taittonen, Leena; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Lyytikäinen, Leo-Pekka; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viikari, Jorma S; Juonala, Markus; Raitakari, Olli T

2017-06-01

Dyslipidemia is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We examined whether the addition of novel single-nucleotide polymorphisms for blood lipid levels enhances the prediction of adult dyslipidemia in comparison to childhood lipid measures. Two thousand four hundred and twenty-two participants of the Cardiovascular Risk in Young Finns Study who had participated in 2 surveys held during childhood (in 1980 when aged 3-18 years and in 1986) and at least once in a follow-up study in adulthood (2001, 2007, and 2011) were included. We examined whether inclusion of a lipid-specific weighted genetic risk score based on 58 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, 71 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and 40 single-nucleotide polymorphisms for triglycerides improved the prediction of adult dyslipidemia compared with clinical childhood risk factors. Adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, physical activity, and smoking in childhood, childhood lipid levels, and weighted genetic risk scores were associated with an increased risk of adult dyslipidemia for all lipids. Risk assessment based on 2 childhood lipid measures and the lipid-specific weighted genetic risk scores improved the accuracy of predicting adult dyslipidemia compared with the approach using only childhood lipid measures for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.806 versus 0.811; P =0.01) and triglycerides (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.740 versus area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve 0.758; P dyslipidemia in adulthood. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

A new risk scoring model for prediction of poor coronary collateral circulation in acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction.

Science.gov (United States)

İleri, Mehmet; Güray, Ümit; Yetkin, Ertan; Gürsoy, Havva Tuğba; Bayır, Pınar Türker; Şahin, Deniz; Elalmış, Özgül Uçar; Büyükaşık, Yahya

2016-01-01

We aimed to investigate the clinical features associated with development of coronary collateral circulation (CCC) in patients with acute non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) and to develop a scoring model for predicting poor collateralization at hospital admission. The study enrolled 224 consecutive patients with NSTEMI admitted to our coronary care unit. Patients were divided into poor (grade 0 and 1) and good (grade 2 and 3) CCC groups. In logistic regression analysis, presence of diabetes mellitus, total white blood cell (WBC) and neutrophil counts and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were found as independent positive predictors of poor CCC, whereas older age (≥ 70 years) emerged as a negative indicator. The final scoring model was based on 5 variables which were significant at p risk score ≤ 1, 29 had good CCC (with a 97% negative predictive value). On the other hand, 139 patients had risk score ≥ 4; out of whom, 130 (with a 93.5% positive predictive value) had poor collateralization. Sensitivity and specificity of the model in predicting poor collateralization in patients with scores ≤ 1 and ≥ 4 were 99.2% (130/131) and +76.3 (29/38), respectively. This study represents the first prediction model for degree of coronary collateralization in patients with acute NSTEMI.

Somatic involvement assessed through a cumulative score of clinical severity in patients with eating disorders.

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Scanelli, Giovanni; Gualandi, Malvina; Simoni, Marzia; Manzato, Emilia

2014-03-01

To evaluate the overall somatic involvement in patients with eating disorders (EDs). The medical records of 206 patients (age 15-56 years, 96.1% females) with diagnosis of anorexia nervosa (AN, n = 63, 30.6%), bulimia nervosa (BN, n = 78, 37.9%), or eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS, n = 65, 31.6 %) were analyzed. A cumulative score of clinical severity (SCS) was computed according to the presence of physical, instrumental, and laboratory abnormalities, as well as to their prognostic impact. Based on the tertile distribution of SCS, three levels of severity were defined: low, medium, and high. A medium/high level of severity was found in 63% of the whole sample, 89% of AN, 49% of BN, and 55% of EDNOS. In the whole sample, the risk of medium/high SCS was significantly and inversely related to the body mass index (BMI) and to the lifetime minimum BMI. The severity level was significantly and positively associated with diagnosis of AN, duration of amenorrhea C1 year, and presence of ED-related symptoms. EDNOS patients showed a higher risk for increased SCS than BN patients, although not significantly. The non-negligible frequency of a relevant somatic involvement in patients with EDNOS suggests that a transdiagnostic scoring system might be helpful to identify ED cases at risk of medical complications.

Risk of poor neonatal outcome at term after medically assisted reproduction: a propensity score-matched study.

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Ensing, Sabine; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Roseboom, Tessa J; Repping, Sjoerd; van der Veen, Fulco; Mol, Ben Willem J; Ravelli, Anita C J

2015-08-01

To study risk of birth asphyxia and related morbidity among term singletons born after medically assisted reproduction (MAR). Population cohort study. Not applicable. A total of 1,953,932 term singleton pregnancies selected from a national registry for 1999-2011. None. Primary outcome Apgar score score score matching analysis was performed with matching on multiple maternal baseline covariates (maternal age, ethnicity, socioeconomic status, parity, year of birth, and preexistent diseases). Each MAR pregnancy was matched to three SC controls. Relative to SC, the MAR singletons had an increased risk of adverse neonatal outcomes including Apgar score score matching, the risk of an Apgar score Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A clinical scoring system to prioritise investigation for tuberculosis among adults attending HIV clinics in South Africa.

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Yasmeen Hanifa

Full Text Available The World Health Organization (WHO recommendation for regular tuberculosis (TB screening of HIV-positive individuals with Xpert MTB/RIF as the first diagnostic test has major resource implications.To develop a diagnostic prediction model for TB, for symptomatic adults attending for routine HIV care, to prioritise TB investigation.Cohort study exploring a TB testing algorithm.HIV clinics, South Africa.Representative sample of adult HIV clinic attendees; data from participants reporting ≥1 symptom on the WHO screening tool were split 50:50 to derive, then internally validate, a prediction model.TB, defined as "confirmed" if Xpert MTB/RIF, line probe assay or M. tuberculosis culture were positive; and "clinical" if TB treatment started without microbiological confirmation, within six months of enrolment.Overall, 79/2602 (3.0% participants on ART fulfilled TB case definitions, compared to 65/906 (7.2% pre-ART. Among 1133/3508 (32.3% participants screening positive on the WHO tool, 1048 met inclusion criteria for this analysis: 52/515 (10.1% in the derivation and 58/533 (10.9% in the validation dataset had TB. Our final model comprised ART status (on ART > 3 months vs. pre-ART or ART 1 symptom. We converted this to a clinical score, using clinically-relevant CD4 and BMI categories. A cut-off score of ≥3 identified those with TB with sensitivity and specificity of 91.8% and 34.3% respectively. If investigation was prioritised for individuals with score of ≥3, 68% (717/1048 symptomatic individuals would be tested, among whom the prevalence of TB would be 14.1% (101/717; 32% (331/1048 of tests would be avoided, but 3% (9/331 with TB would be missed amongst those not tested.Our clinical score may help prioritise TB investigation among symptomatic individuals.

Understanding factors that influence the use of risk scoring instruments in the management of patients with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction in the Netherlands: a qualitative study of health care practitioners' perceptions.

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Engel, Josien; Heeren, Marie-Julie; van der Wulp, Ineke; de Bruijne, Martine C; Wagner, Cordula

2014-09-22

Cardiac risk scores estimate a patient's risk of future cardiac events or death. They are developed to inform treatment decisions of patients diagnosed with unstable angina or non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction. Despite recommending their use in guidelines and evidence of their prognostic value, they seem underused in practice. The purpose of the study was to gain insight in the motivation for implementing cardiac risk scores, and perceptions of health care practitioners towards the use of these instruments in clinical practice. This qualitative study involved semi-structured interviews with 31 health care practitioners at 11 hospitals throughout the Netherlands. Participants were approached through purposive sampling to represent a broad range of participant- and hospital characteristics, and included cardiologists, medical residents, medical interns, nurse practitioners and an emergency physician. The Pettigrew and Whipp Framework for strategic change was used as a theoretical basis. Data were initially analysed through open coding to avoid forcing data into categories predetermined by the framework. Cardiac risk score use was dependent on several factors, including IT support, clinical relevance for daily practice, rotation of staff and workload. Both intrinsic and extrinsic drivers for implementation were identified. Reminders, feedback and IT solutions were strategies used to improve and sustain the use of these instruments. The scores were seen as valuable support systems in improving uniformity in treatment practices, educating interns, conducting research and quantifying a practitioner's own risk assessment. However, health care practitioners varied in their perceptions regarding the influence of cardiac risk scores on treatment decisions. Health care practitioners disagree on the value of cardiac risk scores for clinical practice. Practitioners driven by intrinsic motivations predominantly experienced benefits in policy-making, education and research

Clinically meaningful scores on pain catastrophizing before and after multidisciplinary rehabilitation: a prospective study of individuals with subacute pain after whiplash injury.

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Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy H; Sullivan, Michael J L

2014-03-01

Pain catastrophizing has emerged as a significant risk factor for problematic recovery after musculoskeletal injury. As such, there has been an increased focus on interventions that target patients' levels of catastrophizing. However, it is not presently clear how clinicians might best interpret scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment. Thus, the purpose of this study was to provide preliminary guidelines for the clinical interpretation of scores on pain catastrophizing among individuals with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury. A sample of 166 occupationally disabled individuals with subacute pain due to a whiplash injury participated in this study. Participants completed a 7-week standardized multidisciplinary rehabilitation program aimed at fostering functional recovery. Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) upon program commencement and completion. One year later, participants indicated their pain severity and involvement in employment activities. Separate receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were conducted to determine absolute pretreatment and posttreatment and percent change scores on the PCS that were best associated with clinically important levels of pain and employment status at the follow-up. An absolute pretreatment PCS score of 24 best identified patients according to follow-up clinical outcomes. Posttreatment PCS scores of 14 and 15 best identified patients with high follow-up pain intensity ratings and those who did not return to work, respectively. PCS reductions of approximately 38% to 44% were best associated with return to work and low pain intensity ratings at follow-up. The results indicate scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment that are clinically meaningful. These results may serve as preliminary guidelines to assess the clinical significance of interventions targeting pain catastrophizing in patients with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury.

Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

2014-01-01

To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

Feasibility and reliability of a newly developed antenatal risk score card in routine care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

E. Birnie; E.A.P. Steegers; Drs. H.W. Torij; M.J. Veen; J. Poeran; G.J. Bonsel

2015-01-01

A population-based cross-sectional study (feasibility) and a cohort study (inter-rater reliability) to study in routine care the feasibility and inter-rater reliability of the Rotterdam Reproductive Risk Reduction risk score card (R4U), a new semi-quantitative score card for use during the antenatal

Development and validation of a risk score to predict the probability of postoperative vomiting in pediatric patients: the VPOP score.

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Bourdaud, Nathalie; Devys, Jean-Michel; Bientz, Jocelyne; Lejus, Corinne; Hebrard, Anne; Tirel, Olivier; Lecoutre, Damien; Sabourdin, Nada; Nivoche, Yves; Baujard, Catherine; Nikasinovic, Lydia; Orliaguet, Gilles A

2014-09-01

Few data are available in the literature on risk factors for postoperative vomiting (POV) in children. The aim of the study was to establish independent risk factors for POV and to construct a pediatric specific risk score to predict POV in children. Characteristics of 2392 children operated under general anesthesia were recorded. The dataset was randomly split into an evaluation set (n = 1761), analyzed with a multivariate analysis including logistic regression and backward stepwise procedure, and a validation set (n = 450), used to confirm the accuracy of prediction using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROCAUC ), to optimize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of POV was 24.1%. Five independent risk factors were identified: stratified age (>3 and 13 years: adjusted OR 2.46 [95% CI 1.75-3.45]; ≥6 and ≤13 years: aOR 3.09 [95% CI 2.23-4.29]), duration of anesthesia (aOR 1.44 [95% IC 1.06-1.96]), surgery at risk (aOR 2.13 [95% IC 1.49-3.06]), predisposition to POV (aOR 1.81 [95% CI 1.43-2.31]), and multiple opioids doses (aOR 2.76 [95% CI 2.06-3.70], P risk score ranged from 0 to 6. The model yielded a ROCAUC of 0.73 [95% CI 0.67-0.78] when applied to the validation dataset. Independent risk factors for POV were identified and used to create a new score to predict which children are at high risk of POV. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Non-localization and localization ROC analyses using clinically based scoring

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Paquerault, Sophie; Samuelson, Frank W.; Myers, Kyle J.; Smith, Robert C.

2009-02-01

We are investigating the potential for differences in study conclusions when assessing the estimated impact of a computer-aided detection (CAD) system on readers' performance. The data utilized in this investigation were derived from a multi-reader multi-case observer study involving one hundred mammographic background images to which fixed-size and fixed-intensity Gaussian signals were added, generating a low- and high-intensity signal sets. The study setting allowed CAD assessment in two situations: when CAD sensitivity was 1) superior or 2) lower than the average reader. Seven readers were asked to review each set in the unaided and CAD-aided reading modes, mark and rate their findings. Using this data, we studied the effect on study conclusion of three clinically-based receiver operating characteristic (ROC) scoring definitions. These scoring definitions included both location-specific and non-location-specific rules. The results showed agreement in the estimated impact of CAD on the overall reader performance. In the study setting where CAD sensitivity is superior to the average reader, the mean difference in AUC between the CAD-aided read and unaided read was 0.049 (95%CIs: -0.027; 0.130) for the image scoring definition that is based on non-location-specific rules, and 0.104 (95%CIs: 0.036; 0.174) and 0.090 (95%CIs: 0.031; 0.155) for image scoring definitions that are based on location-specific rules. The increases in AUC were statistically significant for the location-specific scoring definitions. It was further observed that the variance on these estimates was reduced when using the location-specific scoring definitions compared to that using a non-location-specific scoring definition. In the study setting where CAD sensitivity is equivalent or lower than the average reader, the mean differences in AUC are slightly above 0.01 for all image scoring definitions. These increases in AUC were not statistical significant for any of the image scoring definitions

75 FR 54020 - Federal Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-03

... Housing Administration Risk Management Initiatives: New Loan-to-Value and Credit Score Requirements AGENCY... acceptable risks of financial loss, not unacceptable risks.\\2\\ \\2\\ While the Federal Credit Reform Act of..., specific to each applicant. Lower credit scores indicate greater risk of default on any new credit extended...

A probabilistic topic model for clinical risk stratification from electronic health records.

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Huang, Zhengxing; Dong, Wei; Duan, Huilong

2015-12-01

Risk stratification aims to provide physicians with the accurate assessment of a patient's clinical risk such that an individualized prevention or management strategy can be developed and delivered. Existing risk stratification techniques mainly focus on predicting the overall risk of an individual patient in a supervised manner, and, at the cohort level, often offer little insight beyond a flat score-based segmentation from the labeled clinical dataset. To this end, in this paper, we propose a new approach for risk stratification by exploring a large volume of electronic health records (EHRs) in an unsupervised fashion. Along this line, this paper proposes a novel probabilistic topic modeling framework called probabilistic risk stratification model (PRSM) based on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). The proposed PRSM recognizes a patient clinical state as a probabilistic combination of latent sub-profiles, and generates sub-profile-specific risk tiers of patients from their EHRs in a fully unsupervised fashion. The achieved stratification results can be easily recognized as high-, medium- and low-risk, respectively. In addition, we present an extension of PRSM, called weakly supervised PRSM (WS-PRSM) by incorporating minimum prior information into the model, in order to improve the risk stratification accuracy, and to make our models highly portable to risk stratification tasks of various diseases. We verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach on a clinical dataset containing 3463 coronary heart disease (CHD) patient instances. Both PRSM and WS-PRSM were compared with two established supervised risk stratification algorithms, i.e., logistic regression and support vector machine, and showed the effectiveness of our models in risk stratification of CHD in terms of the Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve (AUC) analysis. As well, in comparison with PRSM, WS-PRSM has over 2% performance gain, on the experimental dataset, demonstrating that

Does quantifying epicardial and intrathoracic fat with noncontrast computed tomography improve risk stratification beyond calcium scoring alone?

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Forouzandeh, Farshad; Chang, Su Min; Muhyieddeen, Kamil; Zaid, Rashid R; Trevino, Alejandro R; Xu, Jiaqiong; Nabi, Faisal; Mahmarian, John J

2013-01-01

Noncontrast cardiac computed tomography allows calculation of coronary artery calcium score (CACS) and measurement of epicardial adipose tissue (EATv) and intrathoracic fat (ITFv) volumes. It is unclear whether fat volume information contributes to risk stratification. Cardiac computed tomography was performed in 760 consecutive patients with acute chest pain admitted thorough the emergency department. None had prior coronary artery disease. CACS was calculated using the Agatston method. EATv and ITFv were semiautomatically calculated. Median patient follow-up was 3.3 years. Mean patient age was 54.4±13.7 years and Framingham risk score 8.2±8.2. The 45 patients (5.9%) with major acute cardiac events (MACE) were older (64.8±13.9 versus 53.7±13.4 years), more frequently male (60% versus 40%), and had a higher median Framingham risk score (16 versus 4) and CACS (268 versus 0) versus those without events (all PEATv (154 versus 116 mL) and ITFv (330 versus 223 mL), and a higher prevalence of EATv >125 mL (67% versus 44%) and ITFv >250 mL (64% versus 42%) (all PEATv, and ITFv were all independently associated with MACE. CACS was associated with MACE after adjustment for fat volumes (PEATv and ITFv improved the risk model only in patients with CACS >400. CACS and fat volumes are independently associated with MACE in acute chest pain patients and beyond that provided by clinical information alone. Although fat volumes may add prognostic value in patients with CACS >400, CACS is most strongly correlated with outcome.

Necrotizing soft-tissue infection: Laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing soft tissue infections score

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Madhuri Kulkarni

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Necrotizing soft tissue infections (NSTI can be rapidly progressive and polymicrobial in etiology. Establishing the element of necrotizing infection poses a clinical challenge. A 64-year-old diabetic patient presented to our hospital with a gangrenous patch on anterior abdominal wall, which progressed to an extensive necrotizing lesion within 1 week. Successive laboratory risk indicator for necrotizing softtissue infections (LRINEC scores confirmed the necrotizing element. Cultures yielded Enterococci, Acinetobacter species and Apophysomyces elegans and the latter being considered as an emerging agent of Zygomycosis in immunocompromised hosts. Patient was managed with antibiotics, antifungal treatment and surgical debridement despite which he succumbed to the infection. NSTI′s require an early and aggressive management and LRINEC score can be applied to establish the element of necrotizing pathology. Isolation of multiple organisms becomes confusing to establish the etiological role. Apophysomyces elegans, which was isolated in our patient is being increasingly reported in cases of necrotizing infections and may be responsible for high morbidity and mortality. This scoring has been proposed as an adjunct tool to Microbiological diagnosis when NSTI′s need to be diagnosed early and managed promptly to decrease mortality and morbidity, which however may not come in handy in an immunocompromised host with polymicrobial aggressive infection.

Cardiovascular disease risk score prediction models for women and its applicability to Asians

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Goh LGH

2014-03-01

Full Text Available Louise GH Goh,1 Satvinder S Dhaliwal,1 Timothy A Welborn,2 Peter L Thompson,2–4 Bruce R Maycock,1 Deborah A Kerr,1 Andy H Lee,1 Dean Bertolatti,1 Karin M Clark,1 Rakhshanda Naheed,1 Ranil Coorey,1 Phillip R Della5 1School of Public Health, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia; 2Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Nedlands, Perth, WA, Australia; 3School of Population Health, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia; 4Harry Perkins Institute for Medical Research, Perth, WA, Australia; 5School of Nursing and Midwifery, Curtin Health Innovation Research Institute, Curtin University, Perth, WA, Australia Purpose: Although elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors are associated with a higher risk of developing heart conditions across all ethnic groups, variations exist between groups in the distribution and association of risk factors, and also risk levels. This study assessed the 10-year predicted risk in a multiethnic cohort of women and compared the differences in risk between Asian and Caucasian women. Methods: Information on demographics, medical conditions and treatment, smoking behavior, dietary behavior, and exercise patterns were collected. Physical measurements were also taken. The 10-year risk was calculated using the Framingham model, SCORE (Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation risk chart for low risk and high risk regions, the general CVD, and simplified general CVD risk score models in 4,354 females aged 20–69 years with no heart disease, diabetes, or stroke at baseline from the third Australian Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Country of birth was used as a surrogate for ethnicity. Nonparametric statistics were used to compare risk levels between ethnic groups. Results: Asian women generally had lower risk of CVD when compared to Caucasian women. The 10-year predicted risk was, however, similar between Asian and Australian women, for some models. These findings were

Comparison of Risk Scores for Prediction of Complications following Aortic Valve Replacement.

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Wang, Tom Kai Ming; Choi, David Hyun-Min; Haydock, David; Gamble, Greg; Stewart, Ralph; Ruygrok, Peter

2015-06-01

Risk models play an important role in stratification of patients for cardiac surgery, but their prognostic utilities for post-operative complications are rarely studied. We compared the EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II, Society of Thoracic Surgeon's (STS) Score and an Australasian model (Aus-AVR Score) for predicting morbidities after aortic valve replacement (AVR), and also evaluated seven STS complications models in this context. We retrospectively calculated risk scores for 620 consecutive patients undergoing isolated AVR at Auckland City Hospital during 2005-2012, assessing their discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Amongst mortality scores, the EuroSCORE was the best at discriminating stroke (c-statistic 0.845); the EuroSCORE II at deep sternal wound infection (c=0.748); and the STS Score at composite morbidity or mortality (c=0.666), renal failure (c=0.634), ventilation>24 hours (c=0.732), return to theatre (c=0.577) and prolonged hospital stay >14 days post-operatively (c=0.707). The individual STS complications models had a marginally higher c-statistic (c=0.634-0.846) for all complications except mediastinitis, and had good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P-value 0.123-0.915) for all complications. The STS Score was best overall at discriminating post-operative complications and their composite for AVR. All STS complications models except for deep sternal wound infection had good discrimination and calibration for post-operative complications. Copyright © 2014 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term prognostic value of risk scores after drug-eluting stent implantation for unprotected left main coronary artery: A pooled analysis of the ISAR-LEFT-MAIN and ISAR-LEFT-MAIN 2 randomized clinical trials.

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Xhepa, Erion; Tada, Tomohisa; Kufner, Sebastian; Ndrepepa, Gjin; Byrne, Robert A; Kreutzer, Johanna; Ibrahim, Tareq; Tiroch, Klaus; Valgimigli, Marco; Tölg, Ralf; Cassese, Salvatore; Fusaro, Massimiliano; Schunkert, Heribert; Laugwitz, Karl L; Mehilli, Julinda; Kastrati, Adnan

2017-01-01

To evaluate the long-term prognostic value of risk scores in the setting of drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation for uLMCA. Data on the prognostic value of novel risk scores developed to select the most appropriate revascularization strategy in patients undergoing DES implantation for uLMCA disease are relatively limited. The study represents a patient-level pooled analysis of the ISAR-LEFT-MAIN (607 patients randomized to paclitaxel-eluting or sirolimus-eluting stents) and the ISAR-LEFT-MAIN-2 (650 patients randomized to everolimus-eluting or zotarolimus-eluting stents) randomized trials. The Syntax Score (SxScore) as well the Syntax Score II (SS-II), the EuroSCORE and the Global Risk Classification (GRC) were calculated. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. At a mean follow-up of 3 years there were 160 deaths (12.7%). The death-incidence was significantly higher in the upper tertiles than in the intermediate or lower ones for all risk scores (log-rank test P risk scores were able to stratify the mortality risk at long-term follow-up. EuroSCORE was the only risk score that significantly improved the discriminatory power of a multivariable model to predict long-term mortality. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Low amniotic fluid index in high risk pregnancy and poor apgar score at birth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sultana, S.; Akhtar, K.A.K.

2008-01-01

To determine the accuracy of antepartum Amniotic Fluid Index (AFI) of 5 cm was labeled as predictor of good outcome at birth. The subjects in both the groups were demographically matched and fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The Apgar score was calculated at 5 minutes of birth. The newborns, with Apgar score 6 were labeled as healthy. AFI was compared with Apgar score, using Chi-square and a p-value was calculated to determine the statistical significance. Sensitivity, specificity, efficiency and the predictive values of AFI at a cut off point of < 5 cm as a predictor of adverse outcome at birth (Apgar score of < 6 at 5 minutes of birth) in high-risk pregnancy were calculated. Only 8 neonates of 50 women with low AFI had low Apgar score. Similarly, 6 neonates of 50 women with normal AFI had poor Apgar score. The diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and efficiency of AFI as test were 57.1%, 51.3%, 16%, 88% and 52% respectively. Low AFI is a poor predictor of adverse outcome for high-risk term patients. AFI is not a good screening test for high-risk pregnant women at term for birth of an infant with low Apgar score. (author)

A genetic risk score is associated with polycystic ovary syndrome-related traits.

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Lee, Hyejin; Oh, Jee-Young; Sung, Yeon-Ah; Chung, Hye Won

2016-01-01

Is a genetic risk score (GRS) associated with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) and its related clinical features? The GRS calculated by genome-wide association studies (GWASs) was significantly associated with PCOS status and its related clinical features. PCOS is a heterogeneous disorder and is characterized by oligomenorrhea, hyperandrogenism and polycystic ovary morphology. Although recent GWASs have identified multiple genes associated with PCOS, a comprehensive genetic risk study of these loci with PCOS and related traits (e.g. free testosterone, menstruation number/year and ovarian morphology) has not been performed. This study was designed as a cross-sectional case-control study. We recruited 862 women with PCOS and 860 controls. Women with PCOS were divided into four subgroups: (1) oligomenorrhea + hyperandrogenism + polycystic ovary, (2) oligomenorrhea + hyperandrogenism, (3) oligomenorrhea + polycystic ovary and (4) hyperandrogenism + polycystic ovary. Genomic DNA was genotyped for the PCOS susceptibility loci using the HumanOmni1-Quad v1 array. Venous blood was drawn in the early follicular phase to measure baseline metabolic and hormonal parameters. A GRS was calculated by summing the number of risk alleles from 11 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that were identified in previous GWASs on PCOS. A weighted GRS (wGRS) was calculated by multiplying the number of risk alleles for each SNP by its estimated effect (beta) obtained from the association analysis. The GRS was higher in women with PCOS than in controls (8.8 versus 8.2, P treatment approaches, which could potentially improve health outcomes. None of the authors have any conflicts of interest to declare. No funding was obtained for the study. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Human Reproduction and Embryology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk Factors for the Failure of Spinal Burst Fractures Treated Conservatively According to the Thoracolumbar Injury Classification and Severity Score (TLICS: A Retrospective Cohort Trial.

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Jieliang Shen

Full Text Available The management of thoracolumbar (TL burst fractures is still controversial. The thoracolumbar injury classification and severity score (TLICS algorithm is now widely used to guide clinical decision making, however, in clinical practice, we come to realize that TLICS also has its limitations for treating patients with total scores less than 4, for which conservative treatment may not be optimal in all cases.The aim of this study is to identify several risk factors for the failure of conservative treatment of TL burst fractures according to TLICS algorithm.From June 2008 to December 2013, a cohort of 129 patients with T10-l2 TL burst fractures with a TLISC score ≤3 treated non-operatively were identified and included into this retrospective study. Age, sex, pain intensity, interpedicular distance (IPD, canal compromise, loss of vertebral body height and kyphotic angle (KA were selected as potential risk factors and compared between the non-operative success group and the non-operative failure group.One hundred and four patients successfully completed non-operative treatment, the other 25 patients were converted to surgical treatment because of persistent local back pain or progressive neurological deficits during follow-up. Our results showed that age, visual analogue scale (VAS score and IPD, KA were significantly different between the two groups. Furthermore, regression analysis indicated that VAS score and IPD could be considered as significant predictors for the failure of conservative treatment.The recommendation of non-operative treatment for TLICS score ≤3 has limitations in some patients, and VAS score and IPD could be considered as risk factors for the failure of conservative treatment. Thus, conservative treatment should be decided with caution in patients with greater VAS scores or IPD. If non-operative management is decided, a close follow-up is necessary.

A Study of Correlation of Neck Circumference with Framingham Risk Score as a Predictor of Coronary Artery Disease.

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Koppad, Anand K; Kaulgud, Ram S; Arun, B S

2017-09-01

It has been observed that metabolic syndrome is risk factor for Coronary Artery Disease (CAD) and exerts its effects through fat deposition and vascular aging. CAD has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death. In earlier studies, the metabolic risk has been estimated by Framingham risk score. Recent studies have shown that Neck Circumference (NC) has a good correlation with other traditional anthropometric measurements and can be used as marker of obesity. It also correlates with Framingham risk score, which is slightly more sophisticated measure of CAD risk. To assess the risk of CAD in a subject based on NC and to correlate the NC to Framingham risk score. The present cross-sectional study, done at Karnataka Institute of Medical Sciences, Hubli, Karnataka, India, includes 100 subjects. The study duration was of one year from 1 st January 2015 to 31 st December 2015. Anthropometric indices Body Mass Index (BMI) and NC were correlated with 10 year CAD risk as calculated by Framingham risk score. The correlation between BMI, NC, vascular age and Framingham risk score was calculated using Karl Pearson's correlation method. NC has a strong correlation with 10 year CAD risk (p≤0.001). NC was significantly greater in males as compared to females (p≤0.001). Males had greater risk of cardiovascular disease as reflected by higher 10 year Framingham risk score (p≤0.0035). NC gives simple and easy prediction of CAD risk and is more reliable than traditional risk markers like BMI. NC correlates positively with 10 year Framingham risk score.

The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

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Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-10-01

The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The ANKLe Score: An Audit of Otolaryngology Emergency Clinic Record Keeping

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Dexter, Sara C; Hayashi, Daichi; Tysome, James R

2008-01-01

INTRODUCTION Accurate and legible medical records are essential to good quality patient care. Guidelines from The Royal College of Surgeons of England (RCSE) state the content required to form a complete medical record, but do not address legibility. An audit of otolaryngology emergency clinic record keeping was performed using a new scoring system. PATIENTS AND METHODS The Adjusted Note Keeping and Legibility (ANKLe) score was developed as an objective and quantitative method to assess both the content and legibility of case notes, incorporating the RCSE guidelines. Twenty consecutive otolaryngology emergency clinic case notes from each of 7 senior house officers were audited against standards for legibility and content using the ANKLe score. A proforma was introduced to improve documentation and handwriting advice was given. A further set of 140 notes (20 notes for each of the 7 doctors) was audited in the same way to provide feedback. RESULTS The introduction of a proforma and advice on handwriting significantly increased the quality of case note entries in terms of content, legibility and overall ANKLe score. CONCLUSIONS Accurate note keeping can be improved by the use of a proforma. The legibility of handwriting can be improved using simple advice. The ANKLe score is an objective assessment tool of the overall quality of medical note documentation which can be adapted for use in other specialties. PMID:18430339

The NeBoP score - a clinical prediction test for evaluation of children with Lyme Neuroborreliosis in Europe.

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Skogman, Barbro H; Sjöwall, Johanna; Lindgren, Per-Eric

2015-12-17

The diagnosis of Lyme neuroborreliosis (LNB) in Europe is based on clinical symptoms and laboratory data, such as pleocytosis and anti-Borrelia antibodies in serum and CSF according to guidelines. However, the decision to start antibiotic treatment on admission cannot be based on Borrelia serology since results are not available at the time of lumbar puncture. Therefore, an early prediction test would be useful in clinical practice. The aim of the study was to develop and evaluate a clinical prediction test for children with LNB in a relevant European setting. Clinical and laboratory data were collected retrospectively from a cohort of children being evaluated for LNB in Southeast Sweden. A clinical neuroborreliosis prediction test, the NeBoP score, was designed to differentiate between a high and a low risk of having LNB. The NeBoP score was then prospectively validated in a cohort of children being evaluated for LNB in Central and Southeast Sweden (n = 190) and controls with other specific diagnoses (n = 49). The sensitivity of the NeBoP score was 90 % (CI 95 %; 82-99 %) and the specificity was 90 % (CI 95 %; 85-96 %). Thus, the diagnostic accuracy (i.e. how the test correctly discriminates patients from controls) was 90 % and the area under the curve in a ROC analysis was 0.95. The positive predictive value (PPV) was 0.83 (CI 95 %; 0.75-0.93) and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 0.95 (CI 95 %; 0.90-0.99). The overall diagnostic performance of the NeBoP score is high (90 %) and the test is suggested to be useful for decision-making about early antibiotic treatment in children being evaluated for LNB in European Lyme endemic areas.

The comparison of cardiovascular risk scores using two methods of substituting missing risk factor data in patient medical records

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Andrew Dalton

2011-07-01

Conclusions A simple method of substituting missing risk factor data can produce reliable estimates of CVD risk scores. Targeted screening for high CVD risk, using pre-existing electronic medical record data, does not require multiple imputation methods in risk estimation.

Pulmonary embolism in old age: usefulness of risk stratification in clinical decision-making

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Carlo Bova

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Pulmonary embolism (PE is a common disease with a not negligible short-term risk of death, in particular in the elderly. An adequate evaluation of the prognosis in patients with PE may guide decision-making in terms of the intensity of the initial treatment during the acute phase. Patients with shock or persistent hypotension are at high risk of early mortality and may benefit from immediate reperfusion. Several tools are available to define the short-term prognosis of hemodynamically stable patients. The pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI score, and the simplified PESI score are particularly useful for identifying patients at low risk of early complications who might be safely treated at home. The identification of patients who are hemodynamically stable at diagnosis but are at a high risk of early complications is more challenging. Current guidelines recommend a multi-parametric prognostic algorithm based on the clinical status, biomarkers and imaging tests. However an aggressive treatment in hemodynamically stable patients is still controversial.

Corelations between radiological score with clinical and laboratory parameters in rheumatoid arthritis

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Mihaela Chicu

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Staging in rheumatoid arthritis (RA and evaluating the effectiveness of drug treatment involves the determination of radiological scores (for narrowing and erosions, this being the most specific changes and most commonly found in RA.Matherials and methods: Our study was condacted over a period of 12 months in Medical Rehabilitation Clinic of „Sf. Spiridon” Iasi Hospital, on a group of 40 women patients with RA in various stages of evolution. X-ray examination was done on hands and feet at the beginning and the end of the study period. There were computed radiographic Sharp scores for narrowing and erosions and the total score. Erosions were examined for 16 joints in each hand. For narrowing five joints were evaluated. For accuracy, radiological examination was done on mammography film. Rezults:After calculating Sharp scores - Van der Heide version - I compared them with the levels of clinical (HAQ, NAT, NAD, DAS28, bone densitometry and laboratory (ESR, CRP, rheumatoid factor, IL-1β parameters.Conclusions: The values of radiological scores for narrowing and erosions are directly correlate with DAS28, HAQ, rheumatoid factors levels and IgG values, and indirectly correlated with IL-1β levels.

Multiple Score Comparison: a network meta-analysis approach to comparison and external validation of prognostic scores

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Sarah R. Haile

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Prediction models and prognostic scores have been increasingly popular in both clinical practice and clinical research settings, for example to aid in risk-based decision making or control for confounding. In many medical fields, a large number of prognostic scores are available, but practitioners may find it difficult to choose between them due to lack of external validation as well as lack of comparisons between them. Methods Borrowing methodology from network meta-analysis, we describe an approach to Multiple Score Comparison meta-analysis (MSC which permits concurrent external validation and comparisons of prognostic scores using individual patient data (IPD arising from a large-scale international collaboration. We describe the challenges in adapting network meta-analysis to the MSC setting, for instance the need to explicitly include correlations between the scores on a cohort level, and how to deal with many multi-score studies. We propose first using IPD to make cohort-level aggregate discrimination or calibration scores, comparing all to a common comparator. Then, standard network meta-analysis techniques can be applied, taking care to consider correlation structures in cohorts with multiple scores. Transitivity, consistency and heterogeneity are also examined. Results We provide a clinical application, comparing prognostic scores for 3-year mortality in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease using data from a large-scale collaborative initiative. We focus on the discriminative properties of the prognostic scores. Our results show clear differences in performance, with ADO and eBODE showing higher discrimination with respect to mortality than other considered scores. The assumptions of transitivity and local and global consistency were not violated. Heterogeneity was small. Conclusions We applied a network meta-analytic methodology to externally validate and concurrently compare the prognostic properties

Evaluation of stratification factors and score-scales in clinical trials of treatment of clinical mastitis in dairy cows.

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Hektoen, L; Ødegaard, S A; Løken, T; Larsen, S

2004-05-01

There is often a need to reduce sample size in clinical trials due to practical limitations and ethical considerations. Better comparability between treatment groups by use of stratification in the design, and use of continuous outcome variables in the evaluation of treatment results, are two methods that can be used in order to achieve this. In this paper the choice of stratification factors in trials of clinical mastitis in dairy cows is investigated, and two score-scales for evaluation of clinical mastitis are introduced. The outcome in 57 dairy cows suffering from clinical mastitis and included in a clinical trial comparing homeopathic treatment, placebo and a standard antibiotic treatment is investigated. The strata of various stratification factors are compared across treatments to determine which other factors influence outcome. The two score scales, measuring acute and chronic mastitis symptoms, respectively, are evaluated on their ability to differentiate between patients classified from clinical criteria as responders or non-responders to treatment. Differences were found between the strata of the factors severity of mastitis, lactation number, previous mastitis this lactation and bacteriological findings. These factors influence outcome of treatment and appear relevant as stratification factors in mastitis trials. Both score scales differentiated between responders and non-responders to treatment and were found useful for evaluation of mastitis and mastitis treatment.

[Value of nutritional risk screening in evaluating adverse clinical outcomes in children with severe pneumonia].