WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate system formidable

  1. Safe vs. Fair: A Formidable Trade-off in Tackling Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Socolow

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Global warming requires a response characterized by forward-looking management of atmospheric carbon and respect for ethical principles. Both safety and fairness must be pursued, and there are severe trade-offs as these are intertwined by the limited headroom for additional atmospheric CO2 emissions. This paper provides a simple numerical mapping at the aggregated level of developed vs. developing countries in which safety and fairness are formulated in terms of cumulative emissions and cumulative per capita emissions respectively. It becomes evident that safety and fairness cannot be achieved simultaneously for strict definitions of both. The paper further posits potential global trading in future cumulative emissions budgets in a world where financial transactions compensate for physical emissions: the safe vs. fair tradeoff is less severe but remains formidable. Finally, we explore very large deployment of engineered carbon sinks and show that roughly 1,000 Gt CO2 of cumulative negative emissions over the century are required to have a significant effect, a remarkable scale of deployment. We also identify the unexplored issue of how such sinks might be treated in sub-global carbon accounting.

  2. Weapons make the man (larger: formidability is represented as size and strength in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel M T Fessler

    Full Text Available In order to determine how to act in situations of potential agonistic conflict, individuals must assess multiple features of a prospective foe that contribute to the foe's resource-holding potential, or formidability. Across diverse species, physical size and strength are key determinants of formidability, and the same is often true for humans. However, in many species, formidability is also influenced by other factors, such as sex, coalitional size, and, in humans, access to weaponry. Decision-making involving assessments of multiple features is enhanced by the use of a single summary variable that encapsulates the contributions of these features. Given both a the phylogenetic antiquity of the importance of size and strength as determinants of formidability, and b redundant experiences during development that underscore the contributions of size and strength to formidability, we hypothesize that size and strength constitute the conceptual dimensions of a representation used to summarize multiple diverse determinants of a prospective foe's formidability. Here, we test this hypothesis in humans by examining the effects of a potential foe's access to weaponry on estimations of that individual's size and strength. We demonstrate that knowing that an individual possesses a gun or a large kitchen knife leads observers to conceptualize him as taller, and generally larger and more muscular, than individuals who possess only tools or similarly mundane objects. We also document that such patterns are not explicable in terms of any actual correlation between gun ownership and physical size, nor can they be explained in terms of cultural schemas or other background knowledge linking particular objects to individuals of particular size and strength. These findings pave the way for a fuller understanding of the evolution of the cognitive systems whereby humans--and likely many other social vertebrates--navigate social hierarchies.

  3. Weapons make the man (larger): formidability is represented as size and strength in humans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fessler, Daniel M T; Holbrook, Colin; Snyder, Jeffrey K

    2012-01-01

    In order to determine how to act in situations of potential agonistic conflict, individuals must assess multiple features of a prospective foe that contribute to the foe's resource-holding potential, or formidability. Across diverse species, physical size and strength are key determinants of formidability, and the same is often true for humans. However, in many species, formidability is also influenced by other factors, such as sex, coalitional size, and, in humans, access to weaponry. Decision-making involving assessments of multiple features is enhanced by the use of a single summary variable that encapsulates the contributions of these features. Given both a) the phylogenetic antiquity of the importance of size and strength as determinants of formidability, and b) redundant experiences during development that underscore the contributions of size and strength to formidability, we hypothesize that size and strength constitute the conceptual dimensions of a representation used to summarize multiple diverse determinants of a prospective foe's formidability. Here, we test this hypothesis in humans by examining the effects of a potential foe's access to weaponry on estimations of that individual's size and strength. We demonstrate that knowing that an individual possesses a gun or a large kitchen knife leads observers to conceptualize him as taller, and generally larger and more muscular, than individuals who possess only tools or similarly mundane objects. We also document that such patterns are not explicable in terms of any actual correlation between gun ownership and physical size, nor can they be explained in terms of cultural schemas or other background knowledge linking particular objects to individuals of particular size and strength. These findings pave the way for a fuller understanding of the evolution of the cognitive systems whereby humans--and likely many other social vertebrates--navigate social hierarchies. PMID:22509247

  4. The role of physical formidability in human social status allocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lukaszewski, Aaron W; Simmons, Zachary L; Anderson, Cameron; Roney, James R

    2016-03-01

    Why are physically formidable men willingly allocated higher social status by others in cooperative groups? Ancestrally, physically formidable males would have been differentially equipped to generate benefits for groups by providing leadership services of within-group enforcement (e.g., implementing punishment of free riders) and between-group representation (e.g., negotiating with other coalitions). Therefore, we hypothesize that adaptations for social status allocation are designed to interpret men's physical formidability as a cue to these leadership abilities, and to allocate greater status to formidable men on this basis. These hypotheses were supported in 4 empirical studies wherein young adults rated standardized photos of subjects (targets) who were described as being part of a white-collar business consultancy. In Studies 1 and 2, male targets' physical strength positively predicted ratings of their projected status within the organization, and this effect was mediated by perceptions that stronger men possessed greater leadership abilities of within-group enforcement and between-group representation. Moreover, (a) these same patterns held whether status was conceptualized as overall ascendancy, prestige-based status, or dominance-based status, and (b) strong men who were perceived as aggressively self-interested were not allocated greater status. Finally, 2 experiments established the causality of physical formidability's effects on status-related perceptions by manipulating targets' relative strength (Study 3) and height (Study 4). In interpreting our findings, we argue that adaptations for formidability-based status allocation may have facilitated the evolution of group cooperation in humans and other primates. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26653896

  5. Clearing up “Critical Thinking”: Its Four Formidable Features

    OpenAIRE

    Merinda Bermingham

    2015-01-01

    In this article, I identify four key features of critical thinking that draw together threads of research in this area for clarification for teachers. These four features comprise skills and dispositions required to operate in combination to achieve critical thought. In light of their challenging nature—challenging to develop and challenging to perform—I have called them formidable. I argue that we need a significant emphasis on the dispositions encompassed by genuinely critical thought, sinc...

  6. Arctic Climate Systems Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ivey, Mark D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robinson, David G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Boslough, Mark B. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Peterson, Kara J. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); van Bloemen Waanders, Bart G. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Swiler, Laura Painton [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Desilets, Darin Maurice [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Reinert, Rhonda Karen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-03-01

    This study began with a challenge from program area managers at Sandia National Laboratories to technical staff in the energy, climate, and infrastructure security areas: apply a systems-level perspective to existing science and technology program areas in order to determine technology gaps, identify new technical capabilities at Sandia that could be applied to these areas, and identify opportunities for innovation. The Arctic was selected as one of these areas for systems level analyses, and this report documents the results. In this study, an emphasis was placed on the arctic atmosphere since Sandia has been active in atmospheric research in the Arctic since 1997. This study begins with a discussion of the challenges and benefits of analyzing the Arctic as a system. It goes on to discuss current and future needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for more comprehensive data products related to the Arctic; assess the current state of atmospheric measurement resources available for the Arctic; and explain how the capabilities at Sandia National Laboratories can be used to address the identified technological, data, and modeling needs of the defense, scientific, energy, and intelligence communities for Arctic support.

  7. Weapons Make the Man (Larger): Formidability Is Represented as Size and Strength in Humans

    OpenAIRE

    Fessler, Daniel M.T.; Colin Holbrook; Snyder, Jeffrey K.

    2012-01-01

    In order to determine how to act in situations of potential agonistic conflict, individuals must assess multiple features of a prospective foe that contribute to the foe's resource-holding potential, or formidability. Across diverse species, physical size and strength are key determinants of formidability, and the same is often true for humans. However, in many species, formidability is also influenced by other factors, such as sex, coalitional size, and, in humans, access to weaponry. Decisi...

  8. Reservoir Systems in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W.; Tung, C.; Tai, C.

    2007-12-01

    Climate change may cause more climate variability and further results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir¡¦s abilities to provide service, such as water supply and flood mitigation, and even danger reservoir¡¦s safety. Some local studies have identified that climate change may cause more flood in wet period and less flow in dry period in Taiwan. To mitigate climate change impacts, more reservoir space, i.e. less storage, may be required to store higher flood in wet periods, while more reservoir storage may be required to supply water for dry periods. The goals to strengthen adaptive capacity of water supply and flood mitigation are conflict under climate change. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems. The evaluation procedure includes hydrological models, a reservoir water balance model, and a water supply system dynamics model. The hydrological models are used to simulate reservoir inflows under different climate conditions. Future climate scenarios are derived from several GCMs. Then, the reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir¡¦s storage and outflows according to the simulated inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. At last, those outflows are further input to the system dynamics model to assess whether the goal of water supply can still be met. To mitigate climate change impacts, the implementing adaptation strategies will be suggested with the principles of risk management. Besides, uncertainties of this study will also be analyzed. The Feitsui reservoir system in northern Taiwan is chosen as a case study.

  9. To Defer or To Stand Up? How Offender Formidability Affects Third Party Moral Outrage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Niels Holm; Petersen, Michael Bang

    2011-01-01

    , therefore, be sensitive to these cost- benefit trade-offs. To test this argument, participants read scenarios containing exploitative acts (trivial vs. serious) and were presented with head-shot photos of the apparent exploiters (formidable vs. non-formidable). As predicted, results showed that, compared...

  10. Climate Observing Systems: Data System Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karl, T. R.

    2001-12-01

    Existing observing and data systems have provided considerable information about past climate variations and changes. The recent reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the National Research Council, and the USGCRP National Assessment of Climate Variability and Change are testaments to a vast array of knowledge. These reports also expose some serious deficiencies in our ability to discern past climate variations and change which lead to substantial uncertainties in key climate state, climate feedback, and climate forcing variables. How significant are these uncertainties? For climate trends that have our highest confidence, like the change in mean global surface temperature, the 95 percent confidence intervals amount to about two-thirds of the calculated change. With such large uncertainties it is exceedingly difficult to discern accelerated changes. For other variables, especially variables related to climate feedbacks and forcings (with exceptions for long-lived and well-mixed greenhouse gases like CO2 or CH4) or climate and weather extremes, we often have little or no information to discern trends or cannot objectively assess confidence intervals. Do we know how to reduce existing uncertainties? First and foremost, a climate observation oversight and monitoring capability is needed that tracks the gathering of the data, the processing system, and the performance of the observations, especially time-dependent biases. An organized capability does not now exist, but could be developed at a new and/or existing centers. This center(s) should then have the means and influence to fix problems and be able to establish requirements for new in-situ and satellite observing including related data systems. Such a capability should complement the following: (1) Climate observations from both space-based and in-situ platforms that are taken in ways that address climate needs and adhere to the ten principles outlined by the NRC (1999 Adequacy of Climate

  11. A Climate System Model, Numerical Simulation and Climate Predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZENG Qingcun; WANG Huijun; LIN Zhaohui; ZHOU Guangqing; YU Yongqiang

    2007-01-01

    @@ The implementation of the project has lasted for more than 20 years. As a result, the following key innovative achievements have been obtained, ranging from the basic theory of climate dynamics, numerical model development and its related computational theory to the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models:

  12. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  13. Climate system model, numerical simulation and climate predictability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    @@ Thanks to its work of past more than 20 years,a research team led by Prof.ZENG Qingcun and Prof.WANG Huijun from the CAS Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) has scored innovative achievements in their studies of basic theory of climate dynamics,numerical model development,its related computational theory,and the dynamical climate prediction using the climate system models.Their work received a second prize of the National Award for Natural Sciences in 2005.

  14. The Ancient Martian Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2014-01-01

    Today Mars is a cold, dry, desert planet. The atmosphere is thin and liquid water is not stable. But there is evidence that very early in its history it was warmer and wetter. Since Mariner 9 first detected fluvial features on its ancient terrains researchers have been trying to understand what climatic conditions could have permitted liquid water to flow on the surface. Though the evidence is compelling, the problem is not yet solved. The main issue is coping with the faint young sun. During the period when warmer conditions prevailed 3.5-3.8 Gy the sun's luminosity was approximately 25% less than it is today. How can we explain the presence of liquid water on the surface of Mars under such conditions? A similar problem exists for Earth, which would have frozen over under a faint sun even though the evidence suggests otherwise. Attempts to solve the "Faint Young Sun Paradox" rely on greenhouse warming from an atmosphere with a different mass and composition than we see today. This is true for both Mars and Earth. However, it is not a straightforward solution. Any greenhouse theory must (a) produce the warming and rainfall needed, (b) have a plausible source for the gases required, (c) be sustainable, and (d) explain how the atmosphere evolved to its present state. These are challenging requirements and judging from the literature they have yet to be met. In this talk I will review the large and growing body of work on the early Mars climate system. I will take a holistic approach that involves many disciplines since our goal is to present an integrated view that touches on each of the requirements listed in the preceding paragraph. I will begin with the observational evidence, which comes from the geology, mineralogy, and isotopic data. Each of the data sets presents a consistent picture of a warmer and wetter past with a thicker atmosphere. How much warmer and wetter and how much thicker is a matter of debate, but conditions then were certainly different than

  15. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  16. Dressed to kill? Visible markers of coalitional affiliation enhance conceptualized formidability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fessler, Daniel M T; Holbrook, Colin; Dashoff, David

    2016-05-01

    Displaying markers of coalitional affiliation is a common feature of contemporary life. In situations in which interaction with members of rival coalitions is likely, signaling coalitional affiliation may simultaneously constitute an implicit challenge to opponents and an objective commitment device, binding signalers to their coalitions. Individuals who invite conflict, and who cannot readily back out of conflict, constitute a greater threat than those who avoid conflict and preserve the option of feigning neutrality. As a consequence, the former should be viewed as more formidable than the latter. Recent research indicates that relative formidability is summarized using the envisioned physical size and strength of a potential antagonist. Thus, individuals who display markers of coalitional affiliation should be conceptualized as more physically imposing than those who do not. We tested this prediction in two experiments. In Study 1, conducted with U.S. university students, participants inspected images of sports fans' faces. In Study 2, conducted with U.S. Mechanical Turk workers, participants read vignettes depicting political partisans. In both studies, participants estimated the physical formidability of the target individuals and reported their own ability to defend themselves; in Study 2, participants estimated the target's aggressiveness. Consonant with predictions, targets depicted as signaling coalitional affiliation in situations of potential conflict were envisioned to be more physically formidable and more aggressive than were those not depicted as signaling thusly. Underscoring that the calculations at issue concern the possibility of violent conflict, participants' estimates of the protagonist's features were inversely correlated with their ability to defend themselves. Aggr. Behav. 42:299-309, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26847927

  17. Management system, organizational climate and performance relationships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, B. D.

    1979-01-01

    Seven aerospace firms were investigated to determine if a relationship existed among management systems, organizational climate, and organization performance. Positive relationships were found between each of these variables, but a statistically significant relationship existed only between the management system and organizational climate. The direction and amount of communication and the degree of decentralized decision-making, elements of the management system, also had a statistically significant realtionship with organization performance.

  18. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Kubar, T. L.; Li, J.; Zhang, J.; Wang, W.

    2015-12-01

    Both the National Research Council Decadal Survey and the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with the synergistic use of global satellite observations in order to improve our weather and climate simulation and prediction capabilities. The abundance of satellite observations for fundamental climate parameters and the availability of coordinated model outputs from CMIP5 for the same parameters offer a great opportunity to understand and diagnose model biases in climate models. In addition, the Obs4MIPs efforts have created several key global observational datasets that are readily usable for model evaluations. However, a model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. In response, we have developed a novel methodology to diagnose model biases in contemporary climate models and implementing the methodology as a web-service based, cloud-enabled, provenance-supported climate-model evaluation system. The evaluation system is named Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), which is the product of the research and technology development investments of several current and past NASA ROSES programs. The current technologies and infrastructure of CMDA are designed and selected to address several technical challenges that the Earth science modeling and model analysis community faces in evaluating and diagnosing climate models. In particular, we have three key technology components: (1) diagnostic analysis methodology; (2) web-service based, cloud-enabled technology; (3) provenance-supported technology. The diagnostic analysis methodology includes random forest feature importance ranking, conditional probability distribution function, conditional sampling, and time-lagged correlation map. We have implemented the

  19. AGU Position Statement: Geoengineering the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    Human responsibility for most of the well-documented increase in global average temperatures over the last half century is well established. Further greenhouse gas emissions, particularly of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels, will almost certainly contribute to additional widespread climate changes that can be expected to cause major negative consequences for most nations.1 Three proactive strategies could reduce the risks of climate change: 1) mitigation: reducing emissions; 2) adaptation: moderating climate impacts by increasing our capacity to cope with them; and 3) geoengineering: deliberately manipulating physical, chemical, or biological aspects of the Earth system.2 This policy statement focuses on large-scale efforts to geoengineer the climate system to counteract the consequences of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

  20. The heartbeat of the Oligocene climate system

    OpenAIRE

    H. Pälike; Norris, R. D.; Herrle, J. O.; Wilson, P. A.; Coxall, H.K.; Lear, C.H.; Shackleton, N. J.; A. K. Tripati; Wade, B. S.

    2006-01-01

    A 13-million-year continuous record of Oligocene climate from the equatorial Pacific reveals a pronounced “heartbeat” in the global carbon cycle and periodicity of glaciations. This heartbeat consists of 405,000-, 127,000-, and 96,000-year eccentricity cycles and 1.2-million-year obliquity cycles in periodically recurring glacial and carbon cycle events. That climate system response to intricate orbital variations suggests a fundamental interaction of the carbon cycle, solar forcing, and glac...

  1. The Community Climate System Model: CCSM3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collins, W D; Blackmon, M; Bitz, C; Bonan, G; Bretherton, C S; Carton, J A; Chang, P; Doney, S; Hack, J J; Kiehl, J T; Henderson, T; Large, W G; McKenna, D; Santer, B D; Smith, R D

    2004-12-27

    A new version of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) has been developed and released to the climate community. CCSM3 is a coupled climate model with components representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, and land surface connected by a flux coupler. CCSM3 is designed to produce realistic simulations over a wide range of spatial resolutions, enabling inexpensive simulations lasting several millennia or detailed studies of continental-scale climate change. This paper will show results from the configuration used for climate-change simulations with a T85 grid for atmosphere and land and a 1-degree grid for ocean and sea-ice. The new system incorporates several significant improvements in the scientific formulation. The enhancements in the model physics are designed to reduce or eliminate several systematic biases in the mean climate produced by previous editions of CCSM. These include new treatments of cloud processes, aerosol radiative forcing, land-atmosphere fluxes, ocean mixed-layer processes, and sea-ice dynamics. There are significant improvements in the sea-ice thickness, polar radiation budgets, equatorial sea-surface temperatures, ocean currents, cloud radiative effects, and ENSO teleconnections. CCSM3 can produce stable climate simulations of millenial duration without ad hoc adjustments to the fluxes exchanged among the component models. Nonetheless, there are still systematic biases in the ocean-atmosphere fluxes in western coastal regions, the spectrum of ENSO variability, the spatial distribution of precipitation in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and the continental precipitation and surface air temperatures. We conclude with the prospects for extending CCSM to a more comprehensive model of the Earth's climate system.

  2. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  3. Observing the carbon-climate system

    CERN Document Server

    Schimel, David; Moore, Berrien; Chatterjee, Abhishek; Baker, David; Berry, Joe; Bowman, Kevin; Crisp, Phillipe Ciais David; Crowell, Sean; Denning, Scott; Duren, Riley; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gierach, Michelle; Gurney, Kevin; Hibbard, Kathy; Houghton, Richard A; Huntzinger, Deborah; Hurtt, George; Jucks, Ken; Kawa, Randy; Koster, Randy; Koven, Charles; Luo, Yiqi; Masek, Jeff; McKinley, Galen; Miller, Charles; Miller, John; Moorcroft, Paul; Nassar, Ray; ODell, Chris; Ott, Leslie; Pawson, Steven; Puma, Michael; Quaife, Tristan; Riris, Haris; Romanou, Anastasia; Rousseaux, Cecile; Schuh, Andrew; Shevliakova, Elena; Tucker, Compton; Wang, Ying Ping; Williams, Christopher; Xiao, Xiangming; Yokota, Tatsuya

    2016-01-01

    Increases in atmospheric CO2 and CH4 result from a combination of forcing from anthropogenic emissions and Earth System feedbacks that reduce or amplify the effects of those emissions on atmospheric concentrations. Despite decades of research carbon-climate feedbacks remain poorly quantified. The impact of these uncertainties on future climate are of increasing concern, especially in the wake of recent climate negotiations. Emissions, long concentrated in the developed world, are now shifting to developing countries, where the emissions inventories have larger uncertainties. The fraction of anthropogenic CO2 remaining in the atmosphere has remained remarkably constant over the last 50 years. Will this change in the future as the climate evolves? Concentrations of CH4, the 2nd most important greenhouse gas, which had apparently stabilized, have recently resumed their increase, but the exact cause for this is unknown. While greenhouse gases affect the global atmosphere, their sources and sinks are remarkably he...

  4. Sizing up the threat: the envisioned physical formidability of terrorists tracks their leaders' failures and successes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holbrook, Colin; Fessler, Daniel M T

    2013-04-01

    Victory in modern intergroup conflict derives from complex factors, including weaponry, economic resources, tactical outcomes, and leadership. We hypothesize that the mind summarizes such factors into simple metaphorical representations of physical size and strength, concrete dimensions that have determined the outcome of combat throughout both ontogenetic and phylogenetic experience. This model predicts that in the aftermath of tactical victories (e.g., killing an enemy leader), members of defeated groups will be conceptualized as less physically formidable. Conversely, reminders that groups possess effective leadership should lead their members to be envisioned as more physically formidable. Consonant with these predictions, in both an opportunistic study conducted immediately after Osama bin Laden's death was announced (Study 1) and a follow-up experiment conducted approximately a year later (Study 2), Americans for whom the killing was salient estimated a purported Islamic terrorist to be physically smaller/weaker. In Studies 3 and 4, primes of victorious terrorist leaders led to inflated estimates of terrorists' physical attributes. These findings elucidate how the mind represents contemporary military power, and may help to explain how even largely symbolic victories can influence reasoning about campaigns of coalitional aggression. PMID:23333835

  5. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K.; Menon, S.; Bartlein, P. J.; Feichter, J.; Korhola, A.; Kulmala, M.; O'Donnell, D.; Schurgers, G.; Sorvari, S.; Vesala, T.

    2010-08-01

    The terrestrial biosphere is a key regulator of atmospheric chemistry and climate. During past periods of climate change, vegetation cover and interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and atmosphere changed within decades. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemistry to anthropogenically forced climate change and air pollution. Although interactions between the carbon cycle and climate have been a central focus, other biogeochemical feedbacks could be as important in modulating future climate change. Total positive radiative forcings resulting from feedbacks between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere are estimated to reach up to 0.9 or 1.5 W m-2 K-1 towards the end of the twenty-first century, depending on the extent to which interactions with the nitrogen cycle stimulate or limit carbon sequestration. This substantially reduces and potentially even eliminates the cooling effect owing to carbon dioxide fertilization of the terrestrial biota. The overall magnitude of the biogeochemical feedbacks could potentially be similar to that of feedbacks in the physical climate system, but there are large uncertainties in the magnitude of individual estimates and in accounting for synergies between these effects.

  6. The Community Climate System Model, Version 2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiehl, Jeffrey T.; Gent, Peter R.

    2004-10-01

    The Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM2) is briefly described. A 1000-yr control simulation of the present day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. Minor modifications were made at year 350, which included all five components using the same physical constants. There are very small trends in the upper-ocean, sea ice, atmosphere, and land fields after year 150 of the control simulation. The deep ocean has small but significant trends; however, these are not large enough that the control simulation could not be continued much further. The equilibrium climate sensitivity of CCSM2 is 2.2 K, which is slightly larger than the Climate System Model, version 1 (CSM1) value of 2.0 K.Several aspects of the control simulation's mean climate and interannual variability are described, and good and bad properties of the control simulation are documented. In particular, several aspects of the simulation, especially in the Arctic region, are much improved over those obtained in CSM1. Other aspects, such as the tropical Pacific region simulation, have not been improved much compared to those in CSM1. Priorities for further model development are discussed in the conclusions section.HR ALIGN="center" WIDTH="30%">

  7. System Identification for Indoor Climate Control

    CERN Document Server

    M., A W; H., P W M; Steskens,

    2012-01-01

    The study focuses on the applicability of system identification to identify building and system dynamics for climate control design. The main problem regarding the simulation of the dynamic response of a building using building simulation software is that (1) the simulation of a large complex building is time consuming, and (2) simulation results often lack information regarding fast dynamic behaviour (in the order of seconds), since most software uses a discrete time step, usually fixed to one hour. The first objective is to study the applicability of system identification to reduce computing time for the simulation of large complex buildings. The second objective is to research the applicability of system identification to identify building dynamics based on discrete time data (one hour) for climate control design. The study illustrates that system identification is applicable for the identification of building dynamics with a frequency that is smaller as the maximum sample frequency as used for identificat...

  8. Energy saving systems in hot humid climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadjilambi, A.; D'Aquilo, A.; Rodenberg, O.

    2014-01-01

    This "designers' manual" is made during the TIDO-course AR0533 Innovation & Sustainability. The aim of this manual is the description and comparison of several systems and strategies for cooling buildings in hot humid climates. To cool down a building you need to move the energy from a space or fro

  9. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

    OpenAIRE

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; FRITZ, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-01-01

    The livestock sector contributes significantly to global warming through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. At the same time, livestock is an invaluable source of nutrition and livelihood for millions of poor people. Therefore, climate mitigation policies involving livestock must be designed with extreme care. Here we demonstrate the large mitigation potential inherent in the heterogeneity of livestock production systems. We find that even within existing systems, autonomous transitions from ext...

  10. Online Mapping Systems for Climate Data Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, S. T.; Nicholson, C. M.; Bergantino, A. R.

    2009-12-01

    Online, map-based applications have experienced an explosion in popularity over the past decade. The success of these systems is largely due to their ability to provide a spatial framework data exploration, and for the visual context (e.g., satellite images) they offer. Here we detail the development of a new online mapping system for Wyoming that will serve as a portal for the delivery of weather, climate, and water-related data for users across the state. While capitalizing on the success of previous online mapping efforts, this new system also highlights the potential for additional applications and functionality. Known as the Wyoming Internet Map Server (WyoIMS), the system brings together real-time observations and summary products from multiple federal agencies (NOAA-NWS, NRCS, USGS) to provide “one-stop-shopping” for key climatic datasets. Likewise this system is providing a platform for data delivery, archiving, and QC/QA as part of a new statewide hydroclimatic monitoring network. Moving beyond the simple transfer of data, this system also allows users to access information from resources that include state libraries and various databases that contain information related to climate and water resources. Users can, for example, select individual counties, watersheds, irrigation districts, or municipalities and download a wide range of documents and reports specific to those locations. On the whole, WyoIMS has become a catalyst for the development of new climate-related products, and a foundation for decision support with applications in water resources, wildlife management, and agriculture.

  11. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2013-12-01

    The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report stressed the need for the comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations. The traditional approach to climate model evaluation, which compares a single parameter at a time, identifies symptomatic model biases and errors but fails to diagnose the model problems. The model diagnosis process requires physics-based multi-variable comparisons that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computationally- and data-intensive. To address these challenges, we are developing a parallel, distributed web-service system that enables the physics-based multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks (i.e., Flask, Gunicorn, and Tornado). The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation and (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, and (4) the calculation of difference between two variables. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use

  12. NASA's climate data system primer, version 1.2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Closs, James W.; Reph, Mary G.; Olsen, Lola M.

    1989-01-01

    This is a beginner's manual for NASA's Climate Data System (NCDS), an interactive scientific information management system that allows one to locate, access, manipulate, and display climate-research data. Additional information on the use of the system is available from the system itself.

  13. Global analysis theory of climate system and its applications

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    The idea and main theoretical results of the global analysis theory of climate system are briefly summarized in this paper. A theorem on the global behavior of climate system is given, i.e. there exists a global attractor in the dynamical equations of climate, any state of climate system will be evolved into the global attractor as time increases, indicating the nonlinear adjustment process of climate system to external forcing. The different effects of external forcing, dissipation and nonlinearity on the long-term behavior of solutions are pointed out, and some main applications of the global analysis theory are also introduced. Especially, three applications, the adjustment and evolution processes of climate, the principle of numerical model design and the optimally numerical integration, are discussed.

  14. Solar Powered Automobile Interior Climate Control System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Richard T. (Inventor)

    2003-01-01

    There is provided a climate control system for a parked vehicle that includes a solar panel, thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers. The solar panel can serve as the sole source of electricity for the system. The system affords convenient installation and removal by including solar panels that are removably attached to the exterior of a vehicle. A connecting wire electrically connects the solar panels to a housing that is removably mounted to a partially opened window on the vehicle. The thermostatic switch, fans, and thermoelectric coolers are included within the housing. The thermostatic switch alternates the direction of the current flow through the thermoelectric coolers to selectively heat or cool the interior of the vehicle. The interior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with interior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an interior fan. Similarly, the exterior surface of the thermoelectric coolers are in contact with exterior heat sinks that have air circulated across them by an exterior fan.

  15. Adaptation strategies of Mediterranean cropping systems to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mula, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The EPIC simulation model was used to assess the impact of climate change (CC) on intensive and extensive Mediterranean forage systems to study the effects of CC and adaptation strategies. The intensive cropping system (corn silage – Italian ryegrass) is linked to dairy cattle farms. As first step the EPIC model was calibrated based on experimental data. After calibration the EPIC model was used to perform simulations with different climate scenarios (present and future climate) with diffe...

  16. Long-term climate monitoring by the global climate observing system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Is the climate warming? Is the hydrologic cycle changing? Is the atmospheric/oceanic circulation changing? Is the climate becoming more variable or extreme? Is radiative forcing of the climate changing? are complex questions not only from the standpoint of a multi-variate problem, but because of the various aspects of spatial and temporal sampling that must be considered on a global scale. The development of a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) offers the opportunity for scientists to do something about existing observing deficiencies in light of the importance of documenting long-term climate changes that may already be affected by anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and land use as well as other naturally occurring changes. As an important step toward improving the present inadequacies, a workshop was held to help define the long-term monitoring requirements minimally needed to address the five questions posed above, with special emphasis on detecting anthropogenic climate change and its potential impact on managed and unmanaged systems The workshop focussed on three broad areas related to long-term climate monitoring: (a) the scientific rationale for the long-term climate products (including their accuracy, resolution, and homogeneity) required from our observing systems as related to climate monitoring and climate change detection and attribution; (b) the status of long-term climate products and the observing systems from which these data are derived; and (c) implementation strategies necessary to fulfill item (a) in light of existing systems. Item (c) was treated more in terms of feasibility rather than as a specific implementation plan. figs., tabs., refs

  17. A Regional Climate Model Evaluation System Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Develop a packaged data management infrastructure for the comparison of generated climate model output to existing observational datasets that includes...

  18. Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer Web Service System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Pan, L.; Zhai, C.; Tang, B.; Jiang, J. H.

    2014-12-01

    We have developed a cloud-enabled web-service system that empowers physics-based, multi-variable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. We have developed a methodology to transform an existing science application code into a web service using a Python wrapper interface and Python web service frameworks. The web-service system, called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA), currently supports (1) all the observational datasets from Obs4MIPs and a few ocean datasets from NOAA and Argo, which can serve as observation-based reference data for model evaluation, (2) many of CMIP5 model outputs covering a broad range of atmosphere, ocean, and land variables from the CMIP5 specific historical runs and AMIP runs, and (3) ECMWF reanalysis outputs for several environmental variables in order to supplement observational datasets. Analysis capabilities currently supported by CMDA are (1) the calculation of annual and seasonal means of physical variables, (2) the calculation of time evolution of the means in any specified geographical region, (3) the calculation of correlation between two variables, (4) the calculation of difference between two variables, and (5) the conditional sampling of one physical variable with respect to another variable. A web user interface is chosen for CMDA because it not only lowers the learning curve and removes the adoption barrier of the tool but also enables instantaneous use, avoiding the hassle of local software installation and environment incompatibility. CMDA will be used as an educational tool for the summer school organized by JPL's Center for Climate Science in 2014. In order to support 30+ simultaneous users during the school, we have deployed CMDA to the Amazon cloud environment. The cloud-enabled CMDA will provide each student with a virtual machine while the user interaction with the system will remain the same

  19. Arctic melt ponds and bifurcations in the climate system

    CERN Document Server

    Sudakov, Ivan; Golden, Kenneth M

    2014-01-01

    Understanding how sea ice melts is critical to climate projections. In the Arctic, melt ponds that develop on the surface of sea ice floes during the late spring and summer largely determine their albedo $-$ a key parameter in climate modeling. Here we explore the possibility of a simple sea ice climate model passing through a bifurcation point $-$ an irreversible critical threshold as the system warms, by incorporating geometric information about melt pond evolution. This study is based on a nonlinear phase transition model for melt ponds, and bifurcation analysis of a simple climate model with ice - albedo feedback as the key mechanism driving the system to a potential bifurcation point.

  20. Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S., III; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.

    2006-01-01

    The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

  1. Climate Forecast System Reforecast (CFSR), for 1981 to 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was designed and executed as a global, high resolution, coupled atmosphere-ocean-land surface-sea ice system to...

  2. Beyond Interdisciplinarity: Integrated Climate System Sciences at University of Hamburg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beckmann, Aike; Eden, Carsten; Hachfeld, Berit; Harms, Ingo; Held, Hermann; Hort, Matthias

    2013-04-01

    We present the philosophy and implementation of a combined MSc and PhD study program in climate system sciences (SICCS) that bring together environmental physics, geoscience, biogeochemistry and climate related economic and social sciences. The philosophy of SICCS includes the perspective for both students and lectures to work on, to develop and to communicate an integrative "world map" of climate and earth science. We report about first results, difficulties and experiences after successful implementation of the program.

  3. CRIBs (Climate Relevant Innovation-system Builders): a powerful new focus for international climate technology policy

    OpenAIRE

    Ockwell, David; Byrne, Robert

    2014-01-01

    This briefing suggests some key ways in which the UNFCCC architecture could be extended in order to strengthen National Systems of Innovation (NISs) to achieve more transformative rates of climate technology transfer and development via the creation of “Climate Relevant Innovation-system Builders” (CRIBs). This policy briefing builds on an invited presentation by one of the authors at a workshop on NSIs convened by the Technology Executive Committee (TEC) of the United Nations Framework Co...

  4. Applying "Climate" system to teaching basic climatology and raising public awareness of climate change issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Okladnikov, Igor; Titov, Alexander; Gordov, Evgeny

    2016-04-01

    While there is a strong demand for innovation in digital learning, available training programs in the environmental sciences have no time to adapt to rapid changes in the domain content. A joint group of scientists and university teachers develops and implements an educational environment for new learning experiences in basics of climatic science and its applications. This so-called virtual learning laboratory "Climate" contains educational materials and interactive training courses developed to provide undergraduate and graduate students with profound understanding of changes in regional climate and environment. The main feature of this Laboratory is that students perform their computational tasks on climate modeling and evaluation and assessment of climate change using the typical tools of the "Climate" information-computational system, which are usually used by real-life practitioners performing such kind of research. Students have an opportunity to perform computational laboratory works using information-computational tools of the system and improve skills of their usage simultaneously with mastering the subject. We did not create an artificial learning environment to pass the trainings. On the contrary, the main purpose of association of the educational block and computational information system was to familiarize students with the real existing technologies for monitoring and analysis of data on the state of the climate. Trainings are based on technologies and procedures which are typical for Earth system sciences. Educational courses are designed to permit students to conduct their own investigations of ongoing and future climate changes in a manner that is essentially identical to the techniques used by national and international climate research organizations. All trainings are supported by lectures, devoted to the basic aspects of modern climatology, including analysis of current climate change and its possible impacts ensuring effective links between

  5. Organizational Climate, Services, and Outcomes in Child Welfare Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glisson, Charles; Green, Philip

    2011-01-01

    Objective: This study examines the association of organizational climate, casework services, and youth outcomes in child welfare systems. Building on preliminary findings linking organizational climate to youth outcomes over a 3-year follow-up period, the current study extends the follow-up period to 7 years and tests main, moderating and…

  6. Subclinical primary psychopathy, but not physical formidability or attractiveness, predicts conversational dominance in a zero-acquaintance situation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph H Manson

    Full Text Available The determinants of conversational dominance are not well understood. We used videotaped triadic interactions among unacquainted same-sex American college students to test predictions drawn from the theoretical distinction between dominance and prestige as modes of human status competition. Specifically, we investigated the effects of physical formidability, facial attractiveness, social status, and self-reported subclinical psychopathy on quantitative (proportion of words produced, participatory (interruptions produced and sustained, and sequential (topic control dominance. No measure of physical formidability or attractiveness was associated with any form of conversational dominance, suggesting that the characteristics of our study population or experimental frame may have moderated their role in dominance dynamics. Primary psychopathy was positively associated with quantitative dominance and (marginally overall triad talkativeness, and negatively associated (in men with affect word use, whereas secondary psychopathy was unrelated to conversational dominance. The two psychopathy factors had significant opposing effects on quantitative dominance in a multivariate model. These latter findings suggest that glibness in primary psychopathy may function to elicit exploitable information from others in a relationally mobile society.

  7. The impact of climate change on the European energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change can affect the economy via many different channels in many different sectors. The POLES global energy model has been modified to widen the coverage of climate change impacts on the European energy system. The impacts considered are changes in heating and cooling demand in the residential and services sector, changes in the efficiency of thermal power plants, and changes in hydro, wind (both on- and off-shore) and solar PV electricity output. Results of the impacts of six scenarios on the European energy system are presented, and the implications for European energy security and energy imports are presented. Main findings include: demand side impacts (heating and cooling in the residential and services sector) are larger than supply side impacts; power generation from fossil-fuel and nuclear sources decreases and renewable energy increases; and impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. There remain many more climate change impacts on the energy sector that cannot currently be captured due to a variety of issues including: lack of climate data, difficulties translating climate data into energy-system-relevant data, lack of detail in energy system models where climate impacts act. This paper does not attempt to provide an exhaustive analysis of climate change impacts in the energy sector, it is rather another step towards an increasing coverage of possible impacts. - Highlights: • Expanded coverage of climate change impacts on European energy system. • Demand side impacts are larger than supply side impacts. • Power from fossil and nuclear sources decreases, renewable energy increases. • Impacts are larger in Southern Europe than in Northern Europe. • Synergies exist between climate change mitigation and climate change adaptation

  8. An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Tongwen; WU Fanghua; LIU Yiming; ZHANG Fang; SHI Xueli; CHU Min; ZHANG Jie; FANG Yongjie; WANG Fang; LU Yixiong; LIU Xiangwen; SONG Lianchun; WEI Min; LIU Qianxia; ZHOU Wenyan; DONG Min; ZHAO Qigeng; JI Jinjun; Laurent LI; ZHOU Mingyu; LI Weiping; WANG Zaizhi; ZHANG Hua; XIN Xiaoge; ZHANG Yanwu; ZHANG Li; LI Jianglong

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125◦×2.8125◦) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125◦×1.125◦). Both versions are fully cou-pled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase fi ve (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate pro jections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and pro jections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses in-dicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

  9. DataStreme Earth's Climate System: Building a Climate Literate Society through Effective Partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Weinbeck, R. S.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    Effective partnerships are key to increasing climate and overall environmental literacy. Financial support from NSF, NASA, and NOAA has allowed the American Meteorological Society (AMS) to offer DataStreme courses for almost 20 years. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and Earth's Climate System (ECS) are offered each fall and spring semester by Local Implementation Teams (LITs) across the country in coordination with AMS Education Program scientists and educators who develop instructional materials, provide logistical support to the LITs, and administer the project. A long-standing partnership with State University of New York's The College at Brockport gives teachers the opportunity to receive 3 tuition-free graduate credits upon successful completion of each DataStreme course and construction of a Plan of Action for educational peer-training. DataStreme ECS investigates the fundamental science of Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. The course provides participants with the knowledge to make informed climate decisions. In fact, according to a recent three-year study conducted by AMS, 98% of DataStreme ECS participants reported an increase in environmental literacy as a result of the course. DataStreme Atmosphere, Ocean, and ECS content has been improved because of AMS partnerships with NOAA and NASA. Specifically, hundreds of NASA and NOAA scientists and faculty from numerous institutions both domestic and abroad have contributed and reviewed DataStreme ECS content. Additional collaborations with Consortium for Ocean Leadership and the U.S. Ice Drilling Program greatly improved the course's paleoclimate content. Looking ahead, the Climate Resilience Toolkit from NOAA's Climate Program Office will further bolster the course this fall. These partnerships have resulted in a powerful, content-rich climate science course for K-12 teachers, building the foundation to a climate literate society.

  10. Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), for 1979 to 2011

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) was initially completed for the 31-year period from 1979 to 2009, in January 2010. The CFSR was designed and...

  11. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Analysis

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  12. Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) Operational Forecasts

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) produced by the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is a fully coupled model representing the...

  13. INTRODUCTION: Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    Geoengineering techniques for countering climate change have been receiving much press recently as a `Plan B' if a global deal to tackle climate change is not agreed at the COP15 negotiations in Copenhagen this December. However, the field is controversial as the methods may have unforeseen consequences, potentially making temperatures rise in some regions or reducing rainfall, and many aspects remain under-researched. This focus issue of Environmental Research Letters is a collection of research articles, invited by David Keith, University of Calgary, and Ken Caldeira, Carnegie Institution, that present and evaluate different methods for engineering the Earth's climate. Not only do the letters in this issue highlight various methods of climate engineering but they also detail the arguments for and against climate engineering as a concept. Further reading Focus on Geoengineering at http://environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/subject/tag=geoengineering IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science is an open-access proceedings service available at www.iop.org/EJ/journal/ees Focus on Climate Engineering: Intentional Intervention in the Climate System Contents Modification of cirrus clouds to reduce global warming David L Mitchell and William Finnegan Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change Andrew Ross and H Damon Matthews Researching geoengineering: should not or could not? Martin Bunzl Of mongooses and mitigation: ecological analogues to geoengineering H Damon Matthews and Sarah E Turner Toward ethical norms and institutions for climate engineering research David R Morrow, Robert E Kopp and Michael Oppenheimer On the possible use of geoengineering to moderate specific climate change impacts Michael C MacCracken The impact of geoengineering aerosols on stratospheric temperature and ozone P Heckendorn, D Weisenstein, S Fueglistaler, B P Luo, E Rozanov, M Schraner, L W Thomason and T Peter The fate of the Greenland Ice Sheet in a geoengineered

  14. Geographical Information Systems, Urban Forestry and Climate Change: A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O.S. Eludoyin

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper unfolds the use of urban forestry in controlling climate change and presents the use Geographical Information System (GIS as an adequate and efficient modern tool for analyzing and mapping the forest inventories for use in ameliorating the scourge of climate change in the society. The paper concludes that a holistic approach which involves the integrating urban forestry, GIS and elements of climate will go a long way to assist in saving the livelihood of mankind from being seriously affected by climate change. More so, adequate awareness should be given on the roles of urban forestry and GIS in reducing climate change. In addition, continual assessment of landuse and land cover should be done in order to detect the percentage change of urban forest resources over time with the use of GIS and remote sensing.

  15. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  16. Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

  17. Comments on Current Space Systems Observing the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, L. A.

    2016-07-01

    The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which was established in 1992, has been effective in specifying the observations needed for climate studies, and advocating that these observations be made. As a result, there are essential climate variables being observed, particularly from space, and these have formed the basis for our ever-improving models of how the Earth system functions and the human impact on it. We cannot conclude, however, that the current observing system in space is adequate. Climate change is accelerating, and we need to ensure that our observations capture, with completeness and with proper resolution and cadence, the most important changes. Perhaps of most significance, we need to use observations from space to guide the mitigation and adaptation strategies on which at last our civilization seems prepared to embark. And we need to use our observations to educate particularly policy makers on the reality of climate change, so that none deny the need to act. COSPAR is determined to play its part in highlighting the need to strengthen the climate observing system and notably its research component. This is being accomplished through events like the present roundtable, through the work of its Scientific Commission A, its Task Group on GEO (where COSPAR is serving as a member of its Program Board), and by promoting among space agencies and policy-makers the recently released scientific roadmap on Integrated Earth System Science for the period 2016-2025.

  18. Energy policies avoiding a tipping point in the climate system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paleoclimate evidence and climate models indicate that certain elements of the climate system may exhibit thresholds, with small changes in greenhouse gas emissions resulting in non-linear and potentially irreversible regime shifts with serious consequences for socio-economic systems. Such thresholds or tipping points in the climate system are likely to depend on both the magnitude and rate of change of surface warming. The collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is one example of such a threshold. To evaluate mitigation policies that curb greenhouse gas emissions to levels that prevent such a climate threshold being reached, we use the MERGE model of Manne, Mendelsohn and Richels. Depending on assumptions on climate sensitivity and technological progress, our analysis shows that preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction from today's level, with transition to nuclear and/or renewable energy, possibly combined with the use of carbon capture and sequestration systems. - Research Highlights: → Preserving the THC may require a fast and strong greenhouse gas emission reduction. → This could be achieved through strong changes in the energy mix. → Similar results would apply to any climate system tipping points.

  19. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  20. A Web-Based Geovisual Analytical System for Climate Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenlong Li

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate studies involve petabytes of spatiotemporal datasets that are produced and archived at distributed computing resources. Scientists need an intuitive and convenient tool to explore the distributed spatiotemporal data. Geovisual analytical tools have the potential to provide such an intuitive and convenient method for scientists to access climate data, discover the relationships between various climate parameters, and communicate the results across different research communities. However, implementing a geovisual analytical tool for complex climate data in a distributed environment poses several challenges. This paper reports our research and development of a web-based geovisual analytical system to support the analysis of climate data generated by climate model. Using the ModelE developed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS as an example, we demonstrate that the system is able to (1 manage large volume datasets over the Internet; (2 visualize 2D/3D/4D spatiotemporal data; (3 broker various spatiotemporal statistical analyses for climate research; and (4 support interactive data analysis and knowledge discovery. This research also provides an example for managing, disseminating, and analyzing Big Data in the 21st century.

  1. Thermodynamic efficiency and entropy production in the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2009-08-01

    We present an outlook on the climate system thermodynamics. First, we construct an equivalent Carnot engine with efficiency eta and frame the Lorenz energy cycle in a macroscale thermodynamic context. Then, by exploiting the second law, we prove that the lower bound to the entropy production is eta times the integrated absolute value of the internal entropy fluctuations. An exergetic interpretation is also proposed. Finally, the controversial maximum entropy production principle is reinterpreted as requiring the joint optimization of heat transport and mechanical work production. These results provide tools for climate change analysis and for climate models' validation. PMID:19792088

  2. Climate benefits and environmental challenges related to urban food systems

    OpenAIRE

    Verzandvoort, S.J.E.; Mol, G.; Meulen, van der, A.; Oostrom, van, J.J.

    2014-01-01

    In a short literature review, we have collected available knowledge on the potential benefits of urban agriculture, as part of local food systems, on climate change mitigation and adaptation. The effects of urban agriculture on climate change mitigation and adaptation depend on the type of agricultural practice (e.g. in greenhouses, in soil, in artificial substrates used resources) and the difference with previous land use (e.g. leading to an increase or decrease of sealed soil surface and gr...

  3. Impact of Climatic Variations on Storage Reservoir Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Z. Kaczmarek

    1990-01-01

    Within IIASA's Enironment Program, one of the objectives of the Water Resources Project is to investigate the impact of environmental and economic changes on water resources management. The climate/water resources problem raises a number of scientific questions that must be addressed to answer policy needs reflecting potential effects of global climatic change on regional water management, and possible adaptive measures that could be taken. Historically water resource systems have been design...

  4. Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John del Corral

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI is designed to increase the public health community’s capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely qualitycontrolled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health.

  5. Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Corral, John; Blumenthal, M Benno; Mantilla, Gilma; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2012-09-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community's capacity to understand, use and demand appropriate climate data and climate information to mitigate the public health impacts of the climate. Significant challenges to building the capacity of health professionals to use climate information in research and decision-making include the difficulties experienced by many in accessing relevant and timely quality controlled data and information in formats that can be readily incorporated into specific analysis with other data sources. We present here the capacities of the IRI climate data library and show how we have used it to build an integrated knowledge system in the support of the use of climate and environmental information in climate-sensitive decision-making with respect to health. Initiated as an aid facilitating exploratory data analysis for climate scientists, the IRI climate data library has emerged as a powerful tool for interdisciplinary researchers focused on topics related to climate impacts on society, including health. PMID:23032279

  6. 7th International Seminar on Climate System and Climate Change(ISCS) through the Eyes of a Trainee

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Karen K.Y.Shum

    2010-01-01

    @@ At the invitation of Dr.Dahe Qin,the president of ISCS and the Co-Chair of IPCC WGI,the Hong Kong Observatory has been obliged to participate and benefit from the International Seminar in Beijing,China on 19-30 July 2010.Seminar topics included atmospheric chemistry and climate effects of aerosol biogeochemical cycles,cryosphere and its role in the climate system and climate change,climate models and its application in climate change research,climate change adaptation and mitigation.Data is a common ground for these multi-disciplinary studies around the globe.

  7. The Geopolitics of Climate Change: Challenges to the International System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report analyses the consequences of climate change and global warming for international politics in general and international security in particular. The report focuses on whether and in what way climate change may alter the conditions of international security. From this perspective, the initial effects of climate change will vary according to existing economic, political and social structures in different world regions. Organised violence is more likely in regions with weak states and conflictual inter-state dynamics than in those characterised by co-operative relations. In the short- to medium term, climate change is unlikely to alter the constitutive structures of international security. However, depending on the severity of climate change, these conditions may change over the long term. Such changes will probably depend on the secondary effects that change has on the world and regional economies. Climate change is unlikely to lead to an increase in conflicts in the short- to medium term, but a long-term development marked by unmitigated climate change could very well have serious consequences for international security. The report argues that, although necessary, mitigation and adaptation measures may have consequences for international politics. These are due to the changes in social and political systems that they entail

  8. The Geopolitics of Climate Change: Challenges to the International System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Halden, Peter

    2007-12-15

    This report analyses the consequences of climate change and global warming for international politics in general and international security in particular. The report focuses on whether and in what way climate change may alter the conditions of international security. From this perspective, the initial effects of climate change will vary according to existing economic, political and social structures in different world regions. Organised violence is more likely in regions with weak states and conflictual inter-state dynamics than in those characterised by co-operative relations. In the short- to medium term, climate change is unlikely to alter the constitutive structures of international security. However, depending on the severity of climate change, these conditions may change over the long term. Such changes will probably depend on the secondary effects that change has on the world and regional economies. Climate change is unlikely to lead to an increase in conflicts in the short- to medium term, but a long-term development marked by unmitigated climate change could very well have serious consequences for international security. The report argues that, although necessary, mitigation and adaptation measures may have consequences for international politics. These are due to the changes in social and political systems that they entail.

  9. Incorporating climate-system and carbon-cycle uncertainties in integrated assessments of climate change. (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, J.; McCollum, D. L.; Reisinger, A.; Knutti, R.; Riahi, K.; Meinshausen, M.

    2013-12-01

    The field of integrated assessment draws from a large body of knowledge across a range of disciplines to gain robust insights about possible interactions, trade-offs, and synergies. Integrated assessment of climate change, for example, uses knowledge from the fields of energy system science, economics, geophysics, demography, climate change impacts, and many others. Each of these fields comes with its associated caveats and uncertainties, which should be taken into account when assessing any results. The geophysical system and its associated uncertainties are often represented by models of reduced complexity in integrated assessment modelling frameworks. Such models include simple representations of the carbon-cycle and climate system, and are often based on the global energy balance equation. A prominent example of such model is the 'Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change', MAGICC. Here we show how a model like MAGICC can be used for the representation of geophysical uncertainties. Its strengths, weaknesses, and limitations are discussed and illustrated by means of an analysis which attempts to integrate socio-economic and geophysical uncertainties. These uncertainties in the geophysical response of the Earth system to greenhouse gases remains key for estimating the cost of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios. We look at uncertainties in four dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. Our results indicate that while geophysical uncertainties are an important factor influencing projections of mitigation costs, political choices that delay mitigation by one or two decades a much more pronounced effect.

  10. Climate change and malaria in Canada: a systems approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrang-Ford, L; Maclean, J D; Gyorkos, Theresa W; Ford, J D; Ogden, N H

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change. PMID:19277107

  11. Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. H. Ogden

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.

  12. Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Described here is the formulation of the CASA' biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA' is one of three models - in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) - that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  13. Rainwater catchment system design using simulated future climate data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Corey D.; Bailey, Ryan T.; Arabi, Mazdak

    2015-10-01

    Rainwater harvesting techniques are used worldwide to augment potable water supply, provide water for small-scale irrigation practices, increase rainwater-use efficiency for sustained crop growth in arid and semi-arid regions, decrease urban stormwater flow volumes, and in general to relieve dependency on urban water resources cycles. A number of methods have been established in recent years to estimate reliability of rainwater catchment systems (RWCS) and thereby properly size the components (roof catchment area, storage tank size) of the system for a given climatic region. These methods typically use historical or stochastically-generated rainfall patterns to quantify system performance and optimally size the system, with the latter accounting for possible rainfall scenarios based on statistical relationships of historical rainfall patterns. To design RWCS systems that can sustainably meet water demand under future climate conditions, this paper introduces a method that employs climatic data from general circulation models (GCMs) to develop a suite of catchment area vs. storage size design curves that capture uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Monthly rainfall data for the 2010-2050 time period is statistically downscaled to daily values using a Markov chain algorithm, with results used only from GCMs that yield rainfall patterns that are statistically consistent with historical rainfall patterns. The process is demonstrated through application to two climatic regions of the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM) in the western Pacific, wherein the majority of the population relies on rainwater harvesting for potable water supply. Through the use of design curves, communities can provide household RWCS that achieve a certain degree of storage reliability. The method described herein can be applied generally to any geographic region. It can be used to first, assess the future performance of existing household systems; and second, to design or modify systems

  14. Effects of changes in climate on landscape and regional processes, and feedbacks to the climate system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, Terry V; Björn, Lars Olof; Chernov, Yuri; Chapin, Terry; Christensen, Torben R; Huntley, Brian; Ims, Rolf A; Johansson, Margareta; Jolly, Dyanna; Jonasson, Sven; Matveyeva, Nadya; Panikov, Nicolai; Oechel, Walter; Shaver, Gus; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Sitch, Stephen

    2004-11-01

    Biological and physical processes in the Arctic system operate at various temporal and spatial scales to impact large-scale feedbacks and interactions with the earth system. There are four main potential feedback mechanisms between the impacts of climate change on the Arctic and the global climate system: albedo, greenhouse gas emissions or uptake by ecosystems, greenhouse gas emissions from methane hydrates, and increased freshwater fluxes that could affect the thermohaline circulation. All these feedbacks are controlled to some extent by changes in ecosystem distribution and character and particularly by large-scale movement of vegetation zones. Indications from a few, full annual measurements of CO2 fluxes are that currently the source areas exceed sink areas in geographical distribution. The little available information on CH4 sources indicates that emissions at the landscape level are of great importance for the total greenhouse balance of the circumpolar North. Energy and water balances of Arctic landscapes are also important feedback mechanisms in a changing climate. Increasing density and spatial expansion of vegetation will cause a lowering of the albedo and more energy to be absorbed on the ground. This effect is likely to exceed the negative feedback of increased C sequestration in greater primary productivity resulting from the displacements of areas of polar desert by tundra, and areas of tundra by forest. The degradation of permafrost has complex consequences for trace gas dynamics. In areas of discontinuous permafrost, warming, will lead to a complete loss of the permafrost. Depending on local hydrological conditions this may in turn lead to a wetting or drying of the environment with subsequent implications for greenhouse gas fluxes. Overall, the complex interactions between processes contributing to feedbacks, variability over time and space in these processes, and insufficient data have generated considerable uncertainties in estimating the net

  15. Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making. PMID:20383706

  16. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  17. Systems in peril: Climate change, agriculture and biodiversity in Australia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper reflects on the interplay amongst three closely linked systems - climate, agriculture and biodiversity - in the Australian context. The advance of a European style of agriculture has imperilled Australian biodiversity. The loss and degradation of biodiversity has, in turn, had negative consequences for agriculture. Climate change is imposing new pressures on both agriculture and biodiversity. From a policy and management perspective, though, it is possible to envisage mitigation and adaptation responses that would alleviate pressures on all three systems (climate, agriculture, biodiversity). In this way, the paper seeks to make explicit the important connections between science and policy. The paper outlines the distinctive features of both biodiversity and agriculture in the Australian context. The discussion then addresses the impacts of agriculture on biodiversity, followed by an overview of how climate change is impacting on both of these systems. The final section of the paper offers some commentary on current policy and management strategies that are targeted at mitigating the loss of biodiversity and which may also have benefits in terms of climate change.

  18. Operating Water Resources Systems Under Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, S.

    2002-12-01

    Population and industrial growth has resulted in intense demands on the quantity and quality of water resources worldwide. Moreover, climate change/variability is making a growing percentage of the earth's population vulnerable to extreme weather events (drought and flood). The 1996 Saguenay flood, 1997 Red River flood, the 1998 ice storm, and recent droughts in prairies are few examples of extreme weather events in Canada. Rising economic prosperity, growth in urban population, aging infrastructure, and a changing climate are increasing the vulnerability of Canadians to even more serious impacts. This growing threat can seriously undermine the social and economic viability of the country. Our ability to understand the impacts of climate change/variability on water quantity, quality, and its distribution in time and space can prepare us for sustainable management of this precious resource. The sustainability of water resources, over the medium to long-term, is critically dependent on the ability to manage (plan and operate) water resource systems under a more variable and perhaps warmer future climate. Studying the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources is complex and challenging. It is further complicated by the fact that impacts vary with time and are different at different locations. This study deals with the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in a portion of the Red River Basin in Canada, both in terms of change in quantity and spatial-temporal distribution. A System Dynamics model is developed to describe the operation of the Shellmouth Reservoir located on the Red River in Canada. The climate data from Canadian Global Coupled Model, CGCM1 is used. The spatial system dynamics approach, based on distributed parameter control theory, is used to model the impacts of climate change/variability on water resources in time and space. A decision support system is developed to help reservoir operators and decision makers in

  19. DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-04-01

    At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate

  20. Evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator Chemistry-Climate Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. A. Stone

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Chemistry climate models are important tools for addressing interactions of composition and climate in the Earth System. In particular, they are used for assessing the combined roles of greenhouse gases and ozone in Southern Hemisphere climate and weather. Here we present an evaluation of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator-Chemistry Climate Model, focusing on the Southern Hemisphere and the Australian region. This model is used for the Australian contribution to the international Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, which is soliciting hindcast, future projection and sensitivity simulations. The model simulates global total column ozone (TCO distributions accurately, with a slight delay in the onset and recovery of springtime Antarctic ozone depletion, and consistently higher ozone values. However, October averaged Antarctic TCO from 1960 to 2010 show a similar amount of depletion compared to observations. A significant innovation is the evaluation of simulated vertical profiles of ozone and temperature with ozonesonde data from Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica from 38 to 90° S. Excess ozone concentrations (up to 26.4 % at Davis during winter and stratospheric cold biases (up to 10.1 K at the South Pole outside the period of perturbed springtime ozone depletion are seen during all seasons compared to ozonesondes. A disparity in the vertical location of ozone depletion is seen: centered around 100 hPa in ozonesonde data compared to above 50 hPa in the model. Analysis of vertical chlorine monoxide profiles indicates that colder Antarctic stratospheric temperatures (possibly due to reduced mid-latitude heat flux are artificially enhancing polar stratospheric cloud formation at high altitudes. The models inability to explicitly simulated supercooled ternary solution may also explain the lack of depletion at lower altitudes. The simulated Southern Annular Mode (SAM index compares well with ERA-Interim data. Accompanying

  1. Couplings between changes in the climate system and biogeochemistry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menon, Surabi; Denman, Kenneth L.; Brasseur , Guy; Chidthaisong, Amnat; Ciais, Philippe; Cox, Peter M.; Dickinson, Robert E.; Hauglustaine, Didier; Heinze, Christoph; Holland, Elisabeth; Jacob , Daniel; Lohmann, Ulrike; Ramachandran, Srikanthan; Leite da Silva Dias, Pedro; Wofsy, Steven C.; Zhang, Xiaoye

    2007-10-01

    The Earth's climate is determined by a number of complex connected physical, chemical and biological processes occurring in the atmosphere, land and ocean. The radiative properties of the atmosphere, a major controlling factor of the Earth's climate, are strongly affected by the biophysical state of the Earth's surface and by the atmospheric abundance of a variety of trace constituents. These constituents include long-lived greenhouse gases (LLGHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}) and nitrous oxide (N{sub 2}O), as well as other radiatively active constituents such as ozone and different types of aerosol particles. The composition of the atmosphere is determined by processes such as natural and anthropogenic emissions of gases and aerosols, transport at a variety of scales, chemical and microphysical transformations, wet scavenging and surface uptake by the land and terrestrial ecosystems, and by the ocean and its ecosystems. These processes and, more generally the rates of biogeochemical cycling, are affected by climate change, and involve interactions between and within the different components of the Earth system. These interactions are generally nonlinear and may produce negative or positive feedbacks to the climate system. An important aspect of climate research is to identify potential feedbacks and assess if such feedbacks could produce large and undesired responses to perturbations resulting from human activities. Studies of past climate evolution on different time scales can elucidate mechanisms that could trigger nonlinear responses to external forcing. The purpose of this chapter is to identify the major biogeochemical feedbacks of significance to the climate system, and to assess current knowledge of their magnitudes and trends. Specifically, this chapter will examine the relationships between the physical climate system and the land surface, the carbon cycle, chemically reactive atmospheric gases and aerosol

  2. Climate control systems using pozzolan materials

    KAUST Repository

    Almadhoun, Mahmoud Nassar Mahmoud

    2016-02-18

    A system and method for conditioning air is provided that optimizes the use of sustainable and locally sourced materials with agrarian, residential, and industrial applications. The system can be formed with a porous siliceous, or siliceous and aluminous material that is sufficiently porous, to allow conditioning fluid to flow there through. The material can also be formed into a structure that includes one or more passageways configured to allow air to be conditioned to also pass there through. The structure can be configured to cause the conditioning fluid passing through the porous portions of the structure to intersect and mix with air passing there through. The structure may include a plurality of passageways and intersections and may include a plurality of air inlets and outlets for air passage. The system may additionally include a means for storing, collecting, and driving conditioning fluid through the system and a means for collecting solar radiation to drive airflow and regenerate conditioning fluid.

  3. Indoor climate systems in passive houses

    OpenAIRE

    Mlecnik, E.; Hasselaar, E.; Loon, S. van

    2008-01-01

    According to the definition, passive houses in Europe meet a target energy demand for heating of less than 15 kWh per square meter and per year. This low level for the heating demand is based on heating by a small post-heater in the hygienic ventilation system at 52 0C maximum, while the ventilation system can be dimensioned purely for ventilation purposes. In theory thus the installed heating power is less than approximately 10 Watts/m2. But what happens in practice? The practical realizatio...

  4. Integrating Climate Model Data into Power System Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Chattopadhyay, Debabrata; Rhonda L. Jordan

    2015-01-01

    Significant multiyear and multi decade variations in intermittent renewable resources hold major implications for power system investments. They have been using extensive hydrology data for many years to represent hydrological risks in their planning. Climate model data are particularly suited for the assessment of longer-term variability. A good grasp of seasonal, multiyear, and multi dec...

  5. Certification of passive houses: lessons from real indoor climate systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mlecnik, E.

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines if and how indoor climate systems are important for passive house certification. The research subjects are passive houses in Belgium, occupied by owner-clients. These have received a quality assurance certificate from an independent organization. Through interviews with the owner

  6. Indoor climate systems in passive houses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mlecnik, E.; Hasselaar, E.; Loon, S.

    2008-01-01

    According to the definition, passive houses in Europe meet a target energy demand for heating of less than 15 kWh per square meter and per year. This low level for the heating demand is based on heating by a small post-heater in the hygienic ventilation system at 52 0C maximum, while the ventilation

  7. Modeling Coupled Climate, Ecosystems, and Economic Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Brock, W.A.; Xepapadeas, A.

    2015-01-01

    Human economies and ecosystems form a coupled system coevolving in time and space, since human economies use ecosystems services and at the same time affect ecosystems through their production and consumption activities. The study of the interactions between human economies and ecosystems is fundamental for the efficient use of natural resources and the protection of the environment. This necessitates the development and use of models capa- ble of tracing the main interactions, links and feed...

  8. Earth System Grid II, Turning Climate Datasets into Community Resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Middleton, Don

    2006-08-01

    The Earth System Grid (ESG) II project, funded by the Department of Energy’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program, has transformed climate data into community resources. ESG II has accomplished this goal by creating a virtual collaborative environment that links climate centers and users around the world to models and data via a computing Grid, which is based on the Department of Energy’s supercomputing resources and the Internet. Our project’s success stems from partnerships between climate researchers and computer scientists to advance basic and applied research in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and oceanic sciences. By interfacing with other climate science projects, we have learned that commonly used methods to manage and remotely distribute data among related groups lack infrastructure and under-utilize existing technologies. Knowledge and expertise gained from ESG II have helped the climate community plan strategies to manage a rapidly growing data environment more effectively. Moreover, approaches and technologies developed under the ESG project have impacted datasimulation integration in other disciplines, such as astrophysics, molecular biology and materials science.

  9. Climate impact on social systems. The risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such event is estimated. The estimation considers both the real stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather) a so-called 'statistical weather generator' is used. One interesting finding is that the 3%-risk level remains constant up to 1- -1.1 deg. C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach allows to separate two problems: (i) assessment of Global Change impact and (ii) decision-making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. (au)

  10. Avoiding Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, K. [Department of Geosciences, Penn State, PA (United States); Hall, M. [Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (United States); Kim, Seung-Rae [Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Bradford, D.F. [Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ (United States); Oppenheimer, M. [Woodrow Wilson School and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Robertson Hall 448, Princeton, NJ, 08544 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for the avoidance of 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system'. Among the many plausible choices, dangerous interference with the climate system may be interpreted as anthropogenic radiative forcing causing distinct and widespread climate change impacts such as a widespread demise of coral reefs or a disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet. The geological record and numerical models suggest that limiting global warming below critical temperature thresholds significantly reduces the likelihood of these eventualities. Here we analyze economically optimal policies that may ensure this risk-reduction. Reducing the risk of a widespread coral reef demise implies drastic reductions in greenhouse gas emissions within decades. Virtually unchecked greenhouse gas emissions to date (combined with the inertia of the coupled natural and human systems) may have already committed future societies to a widespread demise of coral reefs. Policies to reduce the risk of a West Antarctic ice sheet disintegration allow for a smoother decarbonization of the economy within a century and may well increase consumption in the long run.

  11. The Milankovitch theory and climate sensitivity. I - Equilibrium climate model solutions for the present surface conditions. II - Interaction between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neeman, Binyamin U.; Ohring, George; Joseph, Joachim H.

    1988-01-01

    A seasonal climate model was developed to test the climate sensitivity and, in particular, the Milankovitch (1941) theory. Four climate model versions were implemented to investigate the range of uncertainty in the parameterizations of three basic feedback mechanisms: the ice albedo-temperature, the outgoing long-wave radiation-temperature, and the eddy transport-meridional temperature gradient. It was found that the differences between the simulation of the present climate by the four versions were generally small, especially for annually averaged results. The climate model was also used to study the effect of growing/shrinking of a continental ice sheet, bedrock sinking/uplifting, and sea level changes on the climate system, taking also into account the feedback effects on the climate of the building of the ice caps.

  12. Regional Water System Vulnerabilities and Strengths for Unavoidable Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.; Christian-Smith, J.; Cooley, H.

    2011-12-01

    A wide range of options are available to help water systems prepare and adapt for unavoidable climate impacts, but these options vary depending on region, climatic conditions, economic status, and technical infrastructure in place. Drawing on case studies from the United States, India, and elsewhere, and from both urban and agricultural water systems, risks to water supply and quality are evaluated and summarized and categories of responses to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation policies are reviewed. Among the issues to be discussed are characteristics unique to developing country cities, such as the predominance of informal actors in the water sector. The formal, or government sector, which often exclusively manages water access and distribution in developed country cities, is only one among many players in the water sector in developing country cities. Informal access to water includes direct access by individuals through private groundwater systems, private water markets using vendors or sales of bottled water, and rainwater harvesting systems on individual homes. In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, the impacts of climate change on water will be strongly felt. This complicates planning for water supply and demand and risks increasing already prevalent water insecurity, especially for urban poor. In wealthier countries, any planning for water-related climate impacts tends to take the form of "business as usual" responses, such as efforts to expand supply with new infrastructure, manage demand through conservation programs, or simply put off addressing the problem to the next generation of managers and users. These approaches can be effective, but also risk missing unusual, non-linear, or threshold impacts. Examples of more informed and innovative efforts to substantively address climate change risks will be presented.

  13. Economic Value of an Advanced Climate Observing System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, B. A.; Cooke, R.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.

    2013-12-01

    Scientific missions increasingly need to show the monetary value of knowledge advances in budget-constrained environments. For example, suppose a climate science mission promises to yield decisive information on the rate of human caused global warming within a shortened time frame. How much should society be willing to pay for this knowledge today? The US interagency memo on the social cost of carbon (SCC) creates a standard yardstick for valuing damages from carbon emissions. We illustrate how value of information (VOI) calculations can be used to monetize the relative value of different climate observations. We follow the SCC, setting uncertainty in climate sensitivity to a truncated Roe and Baker (2007) distribution, setting discount rates of 2.5%, 3% and 5%, and using one of the Integrated Assessment Models sanctioned in SCC (DICE, Nordhaus 2008). We consider three mitigation scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), a moderate mitigation response DICE Optimal, and a strong response scenario (Stern). To illustrate results, suppose that we are on the BAU emissions scenario, and that we would switch to the Stern emissions path if we learn with 90% confidence that the decadal rate of temperature change reaches or exceeds 0.2 C/decade. Under the SCC assumptions, the year in which this happens, if it happens, depends on the uncertain climate sensitivity and on the emissions path. The year in which we become 90% certain that it happens depends, in addition, on our Earth observations, their accuracy, and their completeness. The basic concept is that more accurate observations can shorten the time for societal decisions. The economic value of the resulting averted damages depends on the discount rate, and the years in which the damages occur. A new climate observation would be economically justified if the net present value (NPV) of the difference in averted damages, relative to the existing systems, exceeds the NPV of the system costs. Our results (Cooke et al. 2013

  14. Training a Data Scientist: A Multi-year, Multi-Project View from the Trenches of the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whittell, J.

    2013-12-01

    Society and technology growth has lead to an age of voluminous, heterogeneous data that requires timely analysis. There are many instruments, models and experiments that generate large amounts of data in various formats, resolutions and location. The answers to the questions posed are embedded in these big data that require the formidable task of data handling, manipulation, visualization and storage. To navigate this space persons with experience handling these data and also with some (high-level or deeper) knowledge of the science that these data represent are necessary. Persons with this unique set of skills are data scientists. Most data scientists possess a cross-disciplinary approach to their research/work, but few actually possess a true inter-disciplinary background and expertise that is demanded of the profession. This poster outlines a method in which a young person was introduced to data science from an inter-disciplinary perspective within the STEM disciplines. The Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES, http://rcmes.jpl.nasa.gov) at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory seeks to improve regional climate model evaluation by comparing past model predictions with observation datasets including those originating from Earth-orbiting satellite data. The successful development of the RCMES software package relies on collaboration between climate scientists and computer scientists, as evidenced by the RCMES team's longstanding work with the International Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), a large, multidisciplinary modeling group focused on regional downscaling. Over a total of 17 weeks during the summers of 2011, 2012, and 2013, a high school student, with no formal background in either the earth sciences or computer technology, was immersed (interned) with the RCMES team. This student successfully provided support on both disciplines of the project and developed their 'data scientist toolkit' through learning about the science involved

  15. Climate balance of biogas upgrading systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the numerous applications of renewable energy is represented by the use of upgraded biogas where needed by feeding into the gas grid. The aim of the present study was to identify an upgrading scenario featuring minimum overall GHG emissions. The study was based on a life-cycle approach taking into account also GHG emissions resulting from plant cultivation to the process of energy conversion. For anaerobic digestion two substrates have been taken into account: (1) agricultural resources and (2) municipal organic waste. The study provides results for four different upgrading technologies including the BABIU (Bottom Ash for Biogas Upgrading) method. As the transport of bottom ash is a critical factor implicated in the BABIU-method, different transport distances and means of conveyance (lorry, train) have been considered. Furthermore, aspects including biogas compression and energy conversion in a combined heat and power plant were assessed. GHG emissions from a conventional energy supply system (natural gas) have been estimated as reference scenario. The main findings obtained underlined how the overall reduction of GHG emissions may be rather limited, for example for an agricultural context in which PSA-scenarios emit only 10% less greenhouse gases than the reference scenario. The BABIU-method constitutes an efficient upgrading method capable of attaining a high reduction of GHG emission by sequestration of CO2.

  16. Big Data and Data Models for Climate System Energetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fillmore, D. W.; Habermann, T.; Goedecke, W. B.

    2015-12-01

    Multi-decade satellite missions, such as the NASA CERES mission designed to place observational constraints on the distribution of reflected solar radiation and emitted thermal radiation, present a significant challenge both in the analysis of heterogeneous Big Data and in data continuity. The NASA CERES EBAF dataset is a part of a broader effort to increase the usability of satellite observational data for the climate modeling community. Issues of accessibility, consistency, and reproducibility are paramount. Here we describe the transformation of CERES measurements from source to high level data products intended for direct use by the climate community. At each stage we examine data storage and processing patterns, metadata and potential challenges in reproducibility. The spatial distribution of net energy uptake and transport in the climate system, and its evolution over interannual and decadal time scales, is fundamental to the development of Earth system models. The workflow begins with the CERES footprint radiance seen by a polar orbiter, to the conversion of radiance to radiometric fluxes based on scene identification from MODIS and VIIRS imagery, followed by diurnal interpolation through the use of geostationary satellite imagery and eventually to the creation of high level gridded data products, the ultimate being the Energy Balanced and Filled flux product for direct comparison to climate models. Based on this CERES case study we try to anticipate future questions the may arise in the context of these massive satellite data collections, and what new data models may facilitate future data analysis.

  17. Does the public deserve free access to climate system science?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grigorov, Ivo

    2010-05-01

    Some time ago it was the lack of public access to medical research data that really stirred the issue and gave inertia for legislation and a new publishing model that puts tax payer-funded medical research in the hands of those who fund it. In today's age global climate change has become the biggest socio-economic challenge, and the same argument resonates: climate affects us all and the publicly-funded science quantifying it should be freely accessible to all stakeholders beyond academic research. Over the last few years the ‘Open Access' movement to remove as much as possible subscription, and other on-campus barriers to academic research has rapidly gathered pace, but despite significant progress, the climate system sciences are not among the leaders in providing full access to their publications and data. Beyond the ethical argument, there are proven and tangible benefits for the next generation of climate researchers to adapt the way their output is published. Through the means provided by ‘open access', both data and ideas can gain more visibility, use and citations for the authors, but also result in a more rapid exchange of knowledge and ideas, and ultimately progress towards a sought solution. The presentation will aim to stimulate discussion and seek progress on the following questions: Should free access to climate research (& data) be mandatory? What are the career benefits of using ‘open access' for young scientists? What means and methods should, or could, be incorporated into current European graduate training programmes in climate research, and possible ways forward?

  18. Amplified Feedback Mechanism of the Forests-Aerosols-Climate System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Hede

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change very likely has effects on vegetation so that trees grow faster due to carbon dioxide fertilization (a higher partial pressure increases the rate of reactions with Rubisco during photosynthesis and that trees can be established in new territories in a warmer climate. This has far-reaching significance for the climate system mainly due to a number of feedback mechanisms still under debate. By simulating the vegetation using the Lund-Potsdam-Jena guess dynamic vegetation model, a territory in northern Russia is studied during three different climate protocols assuming a doubling of carbon dioxide levels compared to the year 1975. A back of the envelope calculation is made for the subsequent increased levels of emissions of monoterpenes from spruce and pine forests. The results show that the emissions of monoterpenes at the most northern latitudes were estimated to increase with over 500% for a four-degree centigrade increase protocol. The effect on aerosol and cloud formation is discussed and the cloud optical thickness is estimated to increase more than 2%.

  19. CLIMESCO: evolution of cropping systems as affected by climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Domenico Ventrella

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this number of Italian Journal of Agronomy, seventeen scientific papers are published on the main results of the project CLIMESCO. This project was supported by three Italian Ministries (“Ministero dell'Istruzione, dell'Università e della Ricerca”, “Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali” and “Ministero dell'Ambiente e della tutela del territorio e del Mare” in the framework of “Fondo Integrativo Speciale Ricerca” (FISR, Special Integrated Research Fund. Most recent studies based on observed data and simulations of future climate conditions showed that the global increase of temperatures is most likely due to the increased concentration of Green House Gases. The effect of warming is unequally distributed around the globe, with some areas more sensitive to climate change than others, as the Mediterranean region. Climate change over this region is shown to be characterized by increasing temperatures and by relatively large changes in the frequency of extreme climatic events for both temperature and rainfall. The agricultural and food systems represent one of the most sensitive and vulnerable sectors of the area....

  20. The Aerosol-Monsoon Climate System of Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, William K. M.; Kyu-Myong, Kim

    2012-01-01

    In Asian monsoon countries such as China and India, human health and safety problems caused by air-pollution are worsening due to the increased loading of atmospheric pollutants stemming from rising energy demand associated with the rapid pace of industrialization and modernization. Meanwhile, uneven distribution of monsoon rain associated with flash flood or prolonged drought, has caused major loss of human lives, and damages in crop and properties with devastating societal impacts on Asian countries. Historically, air-pollution and monsoon research are treated as separate problems. However a growing number of recent studies have suggested that the two problems may be intrinsically intertwined and need to be studied jointly. Because of complexity of the dynamics of the monsoon systems, aerosol impacts on monsoons and vice versa must be studied and understood in the context of aerosol forcing in relationship to changes in fundamental driving forces of the monsoon climate system (e.g. sea surface temperature, land-sea contrast etc.) on time scales from intraseasonal variability (weeks) to climate change ( multi-decades). Indeed, because of the large contributions of aerosols to the global and regional energy balance of the atmosphere and earth surface, and possible effects of the microphysics of clouds and precipitation, a better understanding of the response to climate change in Asian monsoon regions requires that aerosols be considered as an integral component of a fully coupled aerosol-monsoon system on all time scales. In this paper, using observations and results from climate modeling, we will discuss the coherent variability of the coupled aerosol-monsoon climate system in South Asia and East Asia, including aerosol distribution and types, with respect to rainfall, moisture, winds, land-sea thermal contrast, heat sources and sink distributions in the atmosphere in seasonal, interannual to climate change time scales. We will show examples of how elevated

  1. Integrated Information Systems Across the Weather-Climate Continuum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Higgins, W.; Nierenberg, C.; Trtanj, J.

    2015-12-01

    The increasing demand for well-organized (integrated) end-to-end research-based information has been highlighted in several National Academy studies, in IPCC Reports (such as the SREX and Fifth Assessment) and by public and private constituents. Such information constitutes a significant component of the "environmental intelligence" needed to address myriad societal needs for early warning and resilience across the weather-climate continuum. The next generation of climate research in service to the nation requires an even more visible, authoritative and robust commitment to scientific integration in support of adaptive information systems that address emergent risks and inform longer-term resilience strategies. A proven mechanism for resourcing such requirements is to demonstrate vision, purpose, support, connection to constituencies, and prototypes of desired capabilities. In this presentation we will discuss efforts at NOAA, and elsewhere, that: Improve information on how changes in extremes in key phenomena such as drought, floods, and heat stress impact management decisions for resource planning and disaster risk reduction Develop regional integrated information systems to address these emergent challenges, that integrate observations, monitoring and prediction, impacts assessments and scenarios, preparedness and adaptation, and coordination and capacity-building. Such systems, as illustrated through efforts such as NIDIS, have strengthened the integration across the foundational research enterprise (through for instance, RISAs, Modeling Analysis Predictions and Projections) by increasing agility for responding to emergent risks. The recently- initiated Climate Services Information System, in support of the WMO Global Framework for Climate Services draws on the above models and will be introduced during the presentation.

  2. Computer Model for Automobile Climate Control System Simulation and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emin Oker

    1999-06-01

    Full Text Available A software to simulate the dynamic operation of climate control system for a generic automobile has been developed. The transient nature of passenger cabin temperature and relative humidity are predicted using the principles of thermodynamics. Analysis include detailed simulations of every component of the automobile air conditioning network. The methodology is validated by comparing the simulation results with the experimental results.

  3. Linkages between the Urban Environment and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2003-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025 60% of the world s population will live in cities (UNFP, 1999). Though urban areas are local in scale, human activity in urban environments has impacts at local, to global scale by changing atmospheric composition; impacting components of the water cycle; and modifying the carbon cycle 2nd ecosystems. For example, urban dwellers are undoubtedly familiar with "high" ozone pollution days, flash flooding in city streets, or heat stress on summer days. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s weather, oceans, and land work together and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. This paper highlights some of the major and current issues involving interactions between urban environments and the Earth's climate system. It also captures some of the most current thinking and findings of the authors and key experts in the field.

  4. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J. Michael; Adamcik, Robert S.; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua J.; McGuire, A. David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  5. Climate Outreach Using Regional Coastal Ocean Observing System Portals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, D. M.; Hernandez, D. L.; Wakely, A.; Bochenek, R. J.; Bickel, A.

    2015-12-01

    Coastal oceans are dynamic, changing environments affected by processes ranging from seconds to millennia. On the east and west coast of the U.S., regional observing systems have deployed and sustained a remarkable diverse array of observing tools and sensors. Data portals visualize and provide access to real-time sensor networks. Portals have emerged as an interactive tool for educators to help students explore and understand climate. Bringing data portals to outreach events, into classrooms, and onto tablets and smartphones enables educators to address topics and phenomena happening right now. For example at the 2015 Charleston Science Technology Engineering and Math (STEM) Festival, visitors navigated the SECOORA (Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing regional Association) data portal to view the real-time marine meteorological conditions off South Carolina. Map-based entry points provide an intuitive interface for most students, an array of time series and other visualizations depict many of the essential principles of climate science manifest in the coastal zone, and data down-load/ extract options provide access to the data and documentation for further inquiry by advanced users. Beyond the exposition of climate principles, the portal experience reveals remarkable technologies in action and shows how the observing system is enabled by the activity of many different partners.

  6. The research in climate system modeling, simulating and forecasting

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    @@ The major point of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) is to predict the real-time climate change in seasons and years. Climate disasters in China occurred frequently, and resulted in a 200 billion RMB lost annually.

  7. Parallelizing Climate Data Management System, version 3 (CDMS3)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadeau, D.; Williams, D. N.; Painter, J.; Doutriaux, C.

    2015-12-01

    The Climate Data Management System is an object-oriented data management system, specialized for organizing multidimensional, gridded data used in climate analyses for data observation and simulation. The basic unit of computation in CDMS3 is the variable, which consist of a multidimensional array that represents climate information in four dimensions corresponding to: time, pressure levels, latitudes, and longitudes. As model become more precise in their computation, the volume of data generated becomes bigger and difficult to handle due to the limit of computational resources. Model today can produce data a time frequency of one hourly, three hourly, or six hourly for spatial footprint close to satellite data used run models. The amount of time for scientists to analyze the data and retrieve useful information is more and more unmanageable. Parallelizing libraries such as CMDS3 would ease the burden of working with such big datasets. Multiple approaches of parallelizing are possible. The most obvious one is embarrassingly parallel or pleasingly parallel programming where each computer node processes one file at a time. A more challenging approach is to send a piece of the data to each node for computation and each node will save the results at its right place in a file as a slab of data. This is possible with Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) using the Message Passing Interface (MPI). A final approach would be the use of Open Multi-Processing API (OpenMP) where a master thread is split in multiple threads for different sections of the main code. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages. This poster bring to light each benefit of these methods and seek to find an optimal solution to compute climate data analyses in a efficient fashion using one or a mixtures of these parallelized methods.

  8. Intersects between Land, Energy, Water and the Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hibbard, K. A.; Skaggs, R.; Wilson, T.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change affects water, and land resources, and with growing human activity, each of these sectors relies increasingly on the others for critical resources. Events such as drought across the South Central U.S. during 2011 demonstrate that climatic impacts within each of these sectors can cascade through interactions between sectors. Energy, water, and land resources are each vulnerable to impacts on either of the other two sectors. For example, energy systems inherently require land and water. Increased electricity demands to contend with climate change can impose additional burdens on overly subscribed water resources. Within this environment, energy systems compete for water with agriculture, human consumption, and other needs. In turn, climate driven changes in landscape attributes and land use affect water quality and availability as well as energy demands. Diminishing water quality and availability impose additional demands for energy to access and purify water, and for land to store and distribute water. In some situations, interactions between water, energy, and land resources make options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions vulnerable to climate change. Energy options such as solar power or biofuel use can reduce net greenhouse gas emissions as well as U.S. dependence on foreign resources. As a result, the U.S. is expanding renewable energy systems. Advanced technology such as carbon dioxide capture with biofuels may offer a means of removing CO2 from the atmosphere. But as with fossil fuels, renewable energy sources can impose significant demands for water and land. For example, solar power mayrequire significant land to site facilities and water for cooling or to produce steam. Raising crops to produce biofuels uses arable land and water that might otherwise be available for food production. Thus, warmer and drier climate can compromise these renewable energy resources, and drought can stress water supplies creating competition between energy

  9. Complex systems approach to fire dynamics and climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pueyo, S.

    2012-04-01

    I present some recent advances in complex systems theory as a contribution to understanding fire regimes and forecasting their response to a changing climate, qualitatively and quantitatively. In many regions of the world, fire sizes have been found to follow, approximately, a power-law frequency distribution. As noted by several authors, this distribution also arises in the "forest fire" model used by physicists to study mechanisms that give rise to scale invariance (the power law is a scale-invariant distribution). However, this model does not give and does not pretend to give a realistic description of fire dynamics. For example, it gives no role to weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) developed a variant of the "forest fire" model that is also simple but attempts to be more realistic. It also results into a power law, but the parameters of this distribution change through time as a function of weather and climate. Pueyo (2007) observed similar patterns of response to weather in data from boreal forest fires, and used the fitted response functions to forecast fire size distributions in a possible climate change scenario, including the upper extreme of the distribution. For some parameter values, the model in Pueyo (2007) displays a qualitatively different behavior, consisting of simple percolation. In this case, fire is virtually absent, but megafires sweep through the ecosystem a soon as environmental forcings exceed a critical threshold. Evidence gathered by Pueyo et al. (2010) suggests that this is realistic for tropical rainforests (specifically, well-conserved upland rainforests). Some climate models suggest that major tropical rainforest regions are going to become hotter and drier if climate change goes ahead unchecked, which could cause such abrupt shifts. Not all fire regimes are well described by this model. Using data from a tropical savanna region, Pueyo et al. (2010) found that the dynamics in this area do not match its assumptions, even though fire

  10. Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Pratik

    Change in Water Cycle- Important Issue on Climate Earth System PRATIK KUMAR SINGH1 1BALDEVRAM MIRDHA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY,JAIPUR (RAJASTHAN) ,INDIA Water is everywhere on Earth and is the only known substance that can naturally exist as a gas, liquid, and solid within the relatively small range of air temperatures and pressures found at the Earth's surface.Changes in the hydrological cycle as a consequence of climate and land use drivers are expected to play a central role in governing a vast range of environmental impacts.Earth's climate will undergo changes in response to natural variability, including solar variability, and to increasing concentrations of green house gases and aerosols.Further more, agreement is widespread that these changes may profoundly affect atmospheric water vapor concentrations, clouds and precipitation patterns.As we know that ,a warmer climate, directly leading to increased evaporation, may well accelerate the hydrological cycle, resulting in an increase in the amount of moisture circulating through the atmosphere.The Changing Water Cycle programmer will develop an integrated, quantitative understanding of the changes taking place in the global water cycle, involving all components of the earth system, improving predictions for the next few decades of regional precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, hydrological storage and fluxes.The hydrological cycle involves evaporation, transpiration, condensation, precipitation, and runoff. NASA's Aqua satellite will monitor many aspects of the role of water in the Earth's systems, and will do so at spatial and temporal scales appropriate to foster a more detailed understanding of each of the processes that contribute to the hydrological cycle. These data and the analyses of them will nurture the development and refinement of hydrological process models and a corresponding improvement in regional and global climate models, with a direct anticipated benefit of more accurate weather and

  11. Use of predictions in temperature control in buildings: A passive climate system application. Doctoral thesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lute, P.J.

    1992-01-01

    The thesis consists of two parts. The first part is a general part about predictive control in the indoor climate field. The second part deals with the control system implementation in the passive indoor climate system. The fundamentals, general principles and mechanisms of the class of predictive controllers and control strategies with a linear objective function are described in chapter 2. Chapter 3 deals with the typical characteristics of the indoor and outdoor climate, that have to be incorporated in a predictive control system to make it a successful and robust predictive indoor climate control system. A general scheme for a predictive indoor climate system, that has self-learning features, is described in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 introduces the passive indoor climate system to which a predictive control strategy is applied. Finally, in Chapter 6, a test facility for passive climate systems, referred to as the TU Delft test cell, is described.

  12. Dansgaard-Oeschger events: tipping points in the climate system

    CERN Document Server

    Cimatoribus, Andrea A; van der Schrier, Gerard

    2011-01-01

    The largest variability in temperature over the last sixty thousand years is connected with Dansgaard-Oeschger events (DOs) [1,2]. These are fast warming episodes (in the North Atlantic region 5-10 degrees C in a few decades), followed by a gradual cooling that lasts from hundreds to thousands of years, often with a final jump back to stadial condition. They occurred with a periodicity of approximately 1,500 years [3]. The relation between DOs and large changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is well established [3-7]. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations [3,6,7], but until now no observational constraint has been forwarded to choose between different theories. Here, we show that DOs are connected with the crossing of a tipping point in the climate system. We use high-resolution ice core isotope data [8,9] to investigate the statistical properties of the climate fluctuations [10,11,12] in the period before the onset of the abrupt change. We...

  13. Ecosystem biophysical memory in the southwestern North America climate system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To elucidate the potential role of vegetation to act as a memory source in the southwestern North America climate system, we explore correlation structures of remotely sensed vegetation dynamics with precipitation, temperature and teleconnection indices over 1982–2006 for six ecoregions. We found that lagged correlations between vegetation dynamics and climate variables are modulated by the dominance of monsoonal or Mediterranean regimes and ecosystem-specific physiological processes. Subtropical and tropical ecosystems exhibit a one month lag positive correlation with precipitation, a zero- to one-month lag negative correlation with temperature, and modest negative effects of sea surface temperature (SST). Mountain forests have a zero month lag negative correlation with precipitation, a zero–one month lag negative correlation with temperature, and no significant correlation with SSTs. Deserts show a strong one–four month lag positive correlation with precipitation, a low zero–two month lag negative correlation with temperature, and a high four–eight month lag positive correlation with SSTs. The ecoregion-specific biophysical memories identified offer an opportunity to improve the predictability of land–atmosphere interactions and vegetation feedbacks onto climate. (letter)

  14. Hurricanes and Climate Change: Global Systems and Local Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, J.

    2011-12-01

    With funding from NOAA, the Miami Science Museum has been working with exhibit software developer Ideum to create an interactive exhibit exploring the global dimensions and local impacts of climate change. A particular focus is on climate-related impacts on coastal communities, including the potential effects on South Florida of ocean acidification, rising sea level, and the possibility of more intense hurricanes. The exhibit is using a 4-foot spherical display system in conjunction with a series of touchscreen kiosks and accompanying flat screens to create a user-controlled, multi-user interface that lets visitors control the sphere and choose from a range of global and local content they wish to explore. The exhibit has been designed to promote engagement of diverse, multigenerational audiences through development of a fully bilingual user interface that promotes social interaction and conversation among visitors as they trade off control of global content on the sphere and related local content on the flat screens. The open-source learning module will be adaptable by other museums, to explore climate impacts specific to their region.

  15. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. M. Eden

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, NGOs and companies and relies on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961–2013 are validated using correlation and skill scores. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known ENSO teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  16. Performance investigation of solid desiccant evaporative cooling system configurations in different climatic zones

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Five configurations of a DEC system are analyzed in five climate zones. • DEC system model configurations are developed in Dymola/Modelica. • Performance analysis predicted a suitable DEC system configuration for each climate zone. • Results show that climate of Vienna, Sao Paulo, and Adelaide favors the ventilated-dunkle cycle. • While ventilation cycle configuration suits the climate of Karachi and Shanghai. - Abstract: Performance of desiccant evaporative cooling (DEC) system configurations is strongly influenced by the climate conditions and varies widely in different climate zones. Finding the optimal configuration of DEC systems for a specific climatic zone is tedious and time consuming. This investigation conducts performance analysis of five DEC system configurations under climatic conditions of five cities from different zones: Vienna, Karachi, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, and Adelaide. On the basis of operating cycle, three standard and two modified system configurations (ventilation, recirculation, dunkle cycles; ventilated-recirculation and ventilated-dunkle cycles) are analyzed in these five climate zones. Using an advance equation-based object-oriented (EOO) modeling and simulation approach, optimal configurations of a DEC system are determined for each climate zone. Based on the hourly climate data of each zone for its respective design cooling day, performance of each system configuration is estimated using three performance parameters: cooling capacity, COP, and cooling energy delivered. The results revealed that the continental/micro-thermal climate of Vienna, temperate/mesothermal climate of Sao Paulo, and dry-summer subtropical climate of Adelaide favor the use of ventilated-dunkle cycle configuration with average COP of 0.405, 0.89 and 1.01 respectively. While ventilation cycle based DEC configuration suits arid and semiarid climate of Karachi and another category of temperate/mesothermal climate of Shanghai with average COP of

  17. A New Paradigm for Assessing the Role of Agriculture in the Climate System and in Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pielke, Roger A., Sr.; Adegoke, Jimmy O.; Chase, Thomas N.; Marshall, Curtis H.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Niyogi, Dev

    2007-01-01

    This paper discusses the diverse climate forcings that impact agricultural systems, and contrasts the current paradigm of using global models downscaled to agricultural areas (a top-down approach) with a new paradigm that first assesses the vulnerability of agricultural activities to the spectrum of environmental risk including climate (a bottom-up approach). To illustrate the wide spectrum of climate forcings, regional climate forcings are presented including land-use/land-cover change and the influence of aerosols on radiative and biogeochemical fluxes and cloud/precipitation processes, as well as how these effects can be teleconnected globally. Examples are presented of the vulnerability perspective, along with a small survey of the perceived drought impacts in a local area, in which a wide range of impacts for the same precipitation deficits are found. This example illustrates why agricultural assessments of risk to climate change and variability and of other environmental risks should start with a bottom-up perspective.

  18. Effects of adjusting cropping systems on utilization efficiency of climatic resources in Northeast China under future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Xu, Yanhong; Chu, Zheng; Mu, Jia; Zhao, Qian

    Quantitatively evaluating the effects of adjusting cropping systems on the utilization efficiency of climatic resources under climate change is an important task for assessing food security in China. To understand these effects, we used daily climate variables obtained from the regional climate model RegCM3 from 1981 to 2100 under the A1B scenario and crop observations from 53 agro-meteorological experimental stations from 1981 to 2010 in Northeast China. Three one-grade zones of cropping systems were divided by heat, water, topography and crop-type, including the semi-arid areas of the northeast and northwest (III), the one crop area of warm-cool plants in semi-humid plain or hilly regions of the northeast (IV), and the two crop area in irrigated farmland in the Huanghuaihai Plain (VI). An agro-ecological zone model was used to calculate climatic potential productivities. The effects of adjusting cropping systems on climate resource utilization in Northeast China under the A1B scenario were assessed. The results indicated that from 1981 to 2100 in the III, IV and VI areas, the planting boundaries of different cropping systems in Northeast China obviously shifted toward the north and the east based on comprehensively considering the heat and precipitation resources. However, due to high temperature stress, the climatic potential productivity of spring maize was reduced in the future. Therefore, adjusting the cropping system is an effective way to improve the climatic potential productivity and climate resource utilization. Replacing the one crop in one year model (spring maize) by the two crops in one year model (winter wheat and summer maize) significantly increased the total climatic potential productivity and average utilization efficiencies. During the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, the average total climatic potential productivities of winter wheat and summer maize increased by 9.36%, 11.88% and 12.13% compared to that of spring maize

  19. Data Visualization and Analysis for Climate Studies using NASA Giovanni Online System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rui, Hualan; Leptoukh, Gregory; Lloyd, Steven

    2008-01-01

    With many global earth observation systems and missions focused on climate systems and the associated large volumes of observational data available for exploring and explaining how climate is changing and why, there is an urgent need for climate services. Giovanni, the NASA GES DISC Interactive Online Visualization ANd ANalysis Infrastructure, is a simple to use yet powerful tool for analysing these data for research on global warming and climate change, as well as for applications to weather. air quality, agriculture, and water resources,

  20. Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandramowli, Shankar N.

    Climate change poses a serious threat to human welfare. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that human actions are the primary cause of climate change. The principal climate forcing factor is the increasing accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due to combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Generation of electricity account for nearly one-third of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions globally (on a CO2-equivalent basis). Any kind of economy-wide mitigation or adaptation effort to climate change must have a prominent focus on the electric power sector. I have developed a capacity expansion model for the power sector called LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model). LP-CEM incorporates both the long-term climate change effects and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. This modeling framework is demonstrated for the electric power system in the Northeast region of United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/regional level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation measures for the electric power sector. From the simulation runs, it is shown that scenarios with climate change effects and with high economic growth rates have resulted in higher capacity addition, optimal supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs. LP-CEM is also adapted to model the implications of the proposed Clean Power Plan

  1. Integrated food–energy systems for climate-smart agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdanski Anne

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Food production needs to increase by 70%, mostly through yield increases, to feed the world in 2050. Increases in productivity achieved in the past are attributed in part to the significant use of fossil fuels. Energy use in agriculture is therefore also expected to rise in the future, further contributing to greenhouse emissions. At the same time, more than two-fifths of the world’s population still depends on unsustainably harvested wood energy for cooking and heating. Both types of energy use have detrimental impacts on the climate and natural resources. Continuing on this path is not an option as it will put additional pressure on the already stressed natural resource base and local livelihoods, while climate change is further reducing the resilience of agro-ecosystems and smallholder farmers. Ecosystem approaches that combine both food and energy production, such as agroforestry or integrated crop–livestock–biogas systems, could substantially mitigate these risks while providing both food and energy to rural and urban populations. Information and understanding on how to change course through the implementation of the practices outlined in this paper are urgently needed. Yet the scientific basis of such integrated systems, which is essential to inform decision-makers and to secure policy support, is still relatively scarce. The author therefore argues that new assessment methodologies based on a systems-oriented analysis are needed for analyzing these complex, multidisciplinary and large-scale phenomena.

  2. PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF CEILING RADIANT COOLING SYSTEM IN COMPOSITE CLIMATE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sharma, Anuj [Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, India; Mathur, Jyotirmay [Malaviya National Institute of Technology (MNIT), Jaipur, India; Bhandari, Mahabir S [ORNL

    2015-01-01

    Radiant cooling systems are proving to be an energy efficient solution due to higher thermal capacity of cooling fluid especially for the buildings that require individual zone controls and where the latent loads are moderate. The Conventional air conditioners work at very low temperature i.e.5-8 c (refrigerant evaporator inlet) while the radiant cooling systems, also referred as high temperature cooling system, work at high temperatures i.e. 14-18 c. The radiant cooling systems can maintain lower MRT (Mean Radiant Temperature) as ceiling panels maintain uniform temperature gradient inside room and provide higher human comfort. The radiant cooling systems are relatively new systems and their operation and energy savings potential are not quantified for a large number of buildings and operational parameters. Moreover, there are only limited numbers of whole building simulation studies have been carried out for these systems to have a full confidence in the capability of modelling tools to simulate these systems and predict the impact of various operating parameters. Theoretically, savings achieve due to higher temperature set point of chilled water, which reduces chiller-running time. However, conventional air conditioner runs continuously to maintain requisite temperature. In this paper, experimental study for performance evaluation of radiant cooling system carried out on system installed at Malaviya National Institute of Technology Jaipur. This paper quantifies the energy savings opportunities and effective temperature by radiant cooling system at different chilled water flow rates and temperature range. The data collected/ analysed through experimental study will used for calibration and validation of system model of building prepared in building performance simulation software. This validated model used for exploring optimized combinations of key parameters for composite climate. These optimized combinations will used in formulation of radiant cooling system

  3. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken place. A

  4. Study on the climate system and mass transport by a climate model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Center for Global Environmental Research (CGER), an organ of the National Institute for Environmental Studies of the Environment Agency of Japan, was established in October 1990 to contribute broadly to the scientific understanding of global change, and to the elucidation of and solution for our pressing environmental problems. CGER conducts environmental research from interdisciplinary, multiagency, and international perspective, provides research support facilities such as a supercomputer and databases, and offers its own data from long-term monitoring of the global environment. In March 1992, CGER installed a supercomputer system (NEC SX-3, Model 14) to facilitate research on global change. The system is open to environmental researchers worldwide. Proposed research programs are evaluated by the Supercomputer Steering Committee which consists of leading scientists in climate modeling, atmospheric chemistry, oceanic circulation, and computer science. After project approval, authorization for system usage is provided. In 1995 and 1996, several research proposals were designated as priority research and allocated larger shares of computer resources. The CGER supercomputer monograph report Vol. 3 is a report of priority research of CGER's supercomputer. The report covers the description of CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model, lagragian general circulation based on the time-scale of particle motion, and ability of the CCSR-NIES atmospheric general circulation model in the stratosphere. The results obtained from these three studies are described in three chapters. We hope this report provides you with useful information on the global environmental research conducted on our supercomputer

  5. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  6. Building integration of photovoltaic systems in cold climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Athienitis, Andreas K.; Candanedo, José A.

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents some of the research activities on building-integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) systems developed by the Solar and Daylighting Laboratory at Concordia University. BIPV systems offer considerable advantages as compared to stand-alone PV installations. For example, BIPV systems can play a role as essential components of the building envelope. BIPV systems operate as distributed power generators using the most widely available renewable source. Since BIPV systems do not require additional space, they are especially appropriate for urban environments. BIPV/Thermal (BIPV/T) systems may use exterior air to extract useful heat from the PV panels, cooling them and thereby improving their electric performance. The recovered thermal energy can then be used for space heating and domestic hot water (DHW) heating, supporting the utilization of BIVP/T as an appropriate technology for cold climates. BIPV and BIPV/T systems are the subject of several ongoing research and demonstration projects (in both residential and commercial buildings) led by Concordia University. The concept of integrated building design and operation is at the centre of these efforts: BIPV and BIPV/T systems must be treated as part of a comprehensive strategy taking into account energy conservation measures, passive solar design, efficient lighting and HVAC systems, and integration of other renewable energy systems (solar thermal, heat pumps, etc.). Concordia Solar Laboratory performs fundamental research on heat transfer and modeling of BIPV/T systems, numerical and experimental investigations on BIPV and BIPV/T in building energy systems and non-conventional applications (building-attached greenhouses), and the design and optimization of buildings and communities.

  7. A global empirical system for probabilistic seasonal climate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eden, J. M.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Hawkins, E.; Suckling, E. B.

    2015-12-01

    Preparing for episodes with risks of anomalous weather a month to a year ahead is an important challenge for governments, non-governmental organisations, and private companies and is dependent on the availability of reliable forecasts. The majority of operational seasonal forecasts are made using process-based dynamical models, which are complex, computationally challenging and prone to biases. Empirical forecast approaches built on statistical models to represent physical processes offer an alternative to dynamical systems and can provide either a benchmark for comparison or independent supplementary forecasts. Here, we present a simple empirical system based on multiple linear regression for producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal surface air temperature and precipitation across the globe. The global CO2-equivalent concentration is taken as the primary predictor; subsequent predictors, including large-scale modes of variability in the climate system and local-scale information, are selected on the basis of their physical relationship with the predictand. The focus given to the climate change signal as a source of skill and the probabilistic nature of the forecasts produced constitute a novel approach to global empirical prediction. Hindcasts for the period 1961-2013 are validated against observations using deterministic (correlation of seasonal means) and probabilistic (continuous rank probability skill scores) metrics. Good skill is found in many regions, particularly for surface air temperature and most notably in much of Europe during the spring and summer seasons. For precipitation, skill is generally limited to regions with known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. The system is used in a quasi-operational framework to generate empirical seasonal forecasts on a monthly basis.

  8. Embedding complex hydrology in the climate system - towards fully coupled climate-hydrology models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, M.; Rasmussen, S.H.; Ridler, M.; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Drews, Martin; Lerer, Sara Maria; Overgaard, J.; Grooss, J.; Rosbjerg, Dan; Christensen, J.H.; Refsgaard, J. C.

    Motivated by the need to develop better tools to understand the impact of future management and climate change on water resources, we present a set of studies with the overall aim of developing a fully dynamic coupling between a comprehensive hydrological model, MIKE SHE, and a regional climate...... distributed parameters using satellite remote sensing. Secondly, field data are used to investigate the effects of model resolution and parameter scales for use in a coupled model. Finally, the development of the fully coupled climate-hydrology model is described and some of the challenges associated with...... coupling models for hydrological processes on sub-grid scales of the regional climate model are presented....

  9. An evaluation of climate change effects on agricultural systems: the case of Trasimeno Lake

    OpenAIRE

    Antonio Boggia; Fabrizio Luciani; Gianluca Massei; Luisa Paolotti; Lucia Rocchi; Tommaso Sediari

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a current matter that is viewed as controversial by the general public, within scientific communities and by governments. Among the production sectors, agriculture is the most significantly influenced by the effect of climate change. This study is aimed at understanding and measuring the changes that occur in agricultural systems due to climate, and at determining how climate change can affect both agricultural productivity and the environmental impacts of agricultural syste...

  10. Climate Summit in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Delman, Jørgen

    in elaborating a reasonably ambitious, yet realistic framework for the implementation of a new global post-Kyoto regime that will have to take effect from 2012. China's leadership has already acknowledged that climate change may exacerbate an exceedingly unsustainable development path over the next decades...... if action is not taken to change its course dramatically. The challenges are formidable, yet the window of opportunity to take action is quite narrow. For these reasons and due to international pressure, China's position on climate change has been made gradually clearer as the climate negotiations have...... intensified. The climate change challenge is seen primarily as a developmental issue and the leadership in Beijing argues that China should follow a path that integrates sustainable development, poverty eradication and climate change in a holistic manner to find satisfactory solutions that will guarantee...

  11. Integrated web system of geospatial data services for climate research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander

    2016-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used for modeling, interpretation and forecasting of climatic and ecosystem changes on different spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size (up to tens terabytes for a single dataset) a special software supporting studies in the climate and environmental change areas is required. An approach for integrated analysis of georefernced climatological data sets based on combination of web and GIS technologies in the framework of spatial data infrastructure paradigm is presented. According to this approach a dedicated data-processing web system for integrated analysis of heterogeneous georeferenced climatological and meteorological data is being developed. It is based on Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. This work is supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation, Agreement #14.613.21.0037.

  12. Fast adjustment of the climate system to changes in atmospheric CO2 and solar radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.; Bala, G.

    2011-12-01

    A key issue in the study of global climate change is the climate response to external forcing. When radiative forcing is applied to the climate system, the climate system starts to respond, resulting in changes in temperature and other fields. A new quasi-equilibrium climate state is achieved when the global mean net energy balance at the top-of-atmosphere returns to zero. The adjustment of the climate system is governed by different processes on different timescales. Within days to months, the climate system adjusts mainly to the imposed forcing and the change of land surface temperature. On longer timescale of years to centuries, when the ocean temperature starts to respond, changes in sea surface temperature exert a strong control on the adjustment of the climate system. By performing ensemble simulations using Hadley Center climate model, HadCM3L, we investigate climate system response to the applied forcing in the forms of additional atmospheric carbon dioxide and an increase in solar insolation. Both carbon dioxide and solar forcing affects the Earth's radiation balance and carbon dioxide also affects the climate system through its impact on plant stomata. We focus on the daily evolution of climate response within a timescale of one month over land and oceans. We will provide a mechanistic understanding of why increasing atmospheric CO2 causes a reduction in global-mean precipitation in the absence of sea surface temperature change. We will also discuss the adjustment of radiative forcing and the usefulness in radiative forcing as a predictor of equilibrium climate change. A discussion of the climate response from daily to millennium timescale will also be presented.

  13. Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyarko, B. K.

    2013-12-01

    The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and

  14. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J. [eds.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  15. Integrated models of livestock systems for climate change studies. 1. Grazing systems.

    OpenAIRE

    Parsons, David J.; Armstrong, A. C.; Turnpenny, J. R.; Matthews, A M; Cooper, K. C.; Clark, J. A.

    2001-01-01

    The potential impact of climate change by the year 2050 on British grazing livestock systems is assessed through the use of simulation models of farming systems. The submodels, consisting of grass production, livestock feeding, livestock thermal balance, the thermal balance of naturally ventilated buildings and a stochastic weather generator, are described. These are integrated to form system models for sheep, beef calves and dairy cows. They are applied to scenarios represe...

  16. CLIMBER-2: a climate system model of intermediate complexity. Pt. 1. Model description and performance for present climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petoukhov, V.; Ganopolski, A.; Brovkin, V.; Claussen, M.; Eliseev, A.; Kubatzki, C.; Rahmstorf, S.

    1998-02-01

    A 2.5-dimensional climate system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-2 and its performance for present climate conditions are presented. The model consists of modules describing atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface processes, terrestrial vegetation cover, and global carbon cycle. The modules interact (on-line) through the fluxes of momentum, energy, water and carbon. The model has a coarse spatial resolution, allowing nevertheless to capture the major features of the Earth`s geography. The model describes temporal variability of the system on seasonal and longer time scales. Due to the fact that the model does not employ any type of flux adjustment and has fast turnaround time, it can be used for study of climates significantly different from the present one and allows to perform long-term (multimillennia) simulations. The constraints for coupling the atmosphere and ocean without flux adjustment are discussed. The results of a model validation against present climate data show that the model successfully describes the seasonal variability of a large set of characteristics of the climate system, including radiative balance, temperature, precipitation, ocean circulation and cryosphere. (orig.) 62 refs.

  17. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  18. Biofuels and climate neutrality - system analysis of production and utilisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The objectives of this study were to investigate to what extent biofuels can be said to be climate neutral. An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the production and utilisation chains of a number of solid biofuels were made based on data available in the literature. The data has been used for making radiative forcing calculations. The study also includes a comparison between imported and domestic solid biofuels. We conclude that none of the investigated biofuel chains are 'climate neutral', since all of them result in net emissions of greenhouse gases. However, all of the chains result in lower emissions than corresponding emissions from the use of fossil fuels. The emission estimates for the fuel chains varies depending on fuels and on how system boundaries have been set in the different studies. The following factors can contribute significantly to the total emissions of greenhouse gases of the production and utilisation chain of a biofuel: impact of production system on soil carbon storage, land use methods (especially use of drained peatlands), the use of fertilisers (both direct and indirect), combustion technology, refining of the fuel (i.e. pelletisation) and storage (especially of comminuted fuels). Other sources that also contribute to the emissions during a production and utilisation chain are; harvesting machines, transportation and waste handling. The climate impacts of the greenhouse gas emissions from one of the biofuels, i.e. forest residues, were compared to the impacts of fossil fuels by the concept of radiative forcing. In the radiative forcing calculations the CO2 emissions from combustion of biofuels and the CO2 emissions that would have occurred if the residues had been left in the forest to decompose were included, and their different dynamics taken into consideration. The decomposition results in CO2 emissions during a long time period and in an amount equalling those that are emitted during combustion. Only a minor part is due to

  19. Knowledge systems in climate change adaptation among upland farming communities in the Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    Espaldon, Maria Victoria O.

    2008-01-01

    The paper focuses on the importance of multiple knowledge systems on enhancing the adaptive capacity of farming communities in the Philippines. It discusses the epistemologies of knowledge that are pertinent to strengthen the resilience of small farmers and farming households, who are one of the most vulnerable groups in the event of climatic variabilities, climatic extremes and climate change. It also brings to the discussion the need for effective communication systems to disseminate the kn...

  20. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  1. Strengthening Carrying Capacity of a Water Supply System under Climate Change with the Drought Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Syujie; Liu, Tzuming; Li, Minghsu; Tung, Chingpin

    2016-04-01

    The carrying capacity of a water supply system is the maximal probable water supply amount under an acceptable risk which is related to the systematic combination of hydrology conditions, climatic conditions, and water infrastructures, for instance, reservoirs, weirs, and water treatment plants. Due to long-term imbalance of water supply and demand during the drought seasons, the carrying capacity of a water supply system may be affected gradually with more extreme climate events resulting from the climate change. To evaluate the carrying capacity of the water supply system under climate change, three major steps to build adaptation capacity under climate change are adopted, including problem identification and goal setting, current risk assessment, and future risk assessment. The carrying capacities for current climate condition and future climate condition were estimated respectively. The early warning system was taken as the effective measure to strengthen the carrying capacity for the uncertain changing climate. The water supply system of Chuoshui River basin in Taiwan is used as the case study. The system dynamics modeling software, Vensim, was used to build the water resources allocation model for Chuoshui River basin. To apply the seasonal climate forecasts released from Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) on modeling, a weather generator is adopted to generate daily weather data for the input of the hydrological component of GWLF model, to project inflows with the lead time of three months. Consequently, the water shortages with and without a drought early warning system were estimated to evaluate the effectiveness of a drought early warning system under climate change. Keywords: Climate change, Carrying capacity, Risk Assessment, Seasonal Climate Forecasts, Drought Early Warning System

  2. Pilot system on extreme climate monitoring and early warning for long range forecast in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, K.; Park, B. K.; E-hyung, P.; Gong, Y.; Kim, H. K.; Park, S.; Min, S. K.; Yoo, H. D.

    2015-12-01

    Recently, extreme weather/climate events such as heat waves, flooding/droughts etc. have been increasing in frequency and intensity under climate change over the world. Also, they can have substantial impacts on ecosystem and human society (agriculture, health, and economy) of the affected regions. According to future projections of climate, extreme weather and climate events in Korea are expected to occure more frequently with stronger intensity over the 21st century. For the better long range forecast, it is also fundamentally ruquired to develop a supporting system in terms of extreme weather and climate events including forequency and trend. In this context, the KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) has recently initiated a development of the extreme climate monintoring and early warning system for long range forecast, which consists of three sub-system components; (1) Real-time climate monitoring system, (2) Ensemble prediction system, and (3) Mechanism analysis and display system for climate extremes. As a first step, a pilot system has been designed focusing on temperature extremes such heat waves and cold snaps using daily, monthly and seasonal observations and model prediction output on the global, regional and national levels. In parallel, the skills of the KMA long range prediction system are being evaluated comprehensively for weather and climate extremes, for which varous case studies are conducted to better understand the observed variations of extrem climates and responsible mechanisms and also to assess predictability of the ensemble prediction system for extremes. Details in the KMA extreme climate monitoring and early warning system will be intorduced and some preliminary results will be discussed for heat/cold waves in Korea.

  3. The 21st century Museum Climatic Monitoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, W.-S.

    2015-08-01

    Technology has provided us work convenience and shaped our quality of life; it has enabled an unprecedented level of access to knowledge by flipping screen of a hand-held electronic device without going elsewhere but stay connected wireless communication. This kind of technology has been broadly acquired at museums in Hong Kong for preserving their valuable collections. Similar gadget was applied on the monitoring system to record climatic conditions of museum's stores and galleries. Sensors have been equipped with chips for the wireless transmission of RH/Temp, without installation of any conduit or LAN lines. Useful and important data will then be grouped into a packet format for efficient delivery. As long as the static IP address of the target workstation has been set, data can be accurately retrieved from one place to another via commercially available browsers, such as: Firefox or Internet Explorer, even on hand-held electronic devices. This paper will discuss the detail of this system, its pros and cons in comparison with the old model. After all, the new technology is highly significant in supporting the current needs and the future developments of the museum service.

  4. Summertime wind climate in Yerevan: valley wind systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gevorgyan, Artur

    2016-05-01

    1992-2014 wind climatology analysis in Yerevan is presented with particular focus given to the summertime thermally induced valley wind systems. Persistence high winds are observed in Yerevan during July-August months when the study region is strongly affected by a heat-driven plain-plateau circulation. The local valley winds arrive in Yerevan in the evening hours, generally, from 1500 to 1800 UTC, leading to rapid enhancement of wind speeds and dramatic changes in wind direction. Valley-winds significantly impact the local climate of Yerevan, which is a densely populated city. These winds moderate evening temperatures after hot and dry weather conditions observed during summertime afternoons. On the other hand, valley winds result in significantly higher nocturnal temperatures and more frequent occurrence of warm nights (tn90p) in Yerevan due to stronger turbulent mixing of boundary layer preventing strong surface cooling and temperature drop in nighttime and morning hours. The applied WRF-ARW limited area model is able to simulate the key features of the observed spatial pattern of surface winds in Armenia associated with significant terrain channeling, wind curls, etc. By contrast, ECMWF EPS global model fails to capture mesoscale and local wind systems over Armenia. However, the results of statistical verification of surface winds in Yerevan showed that substantial biases are present in WRF 18-h wind forecasts, as well as, the temporal variability of observed surface winds is not reproduced adequately in WRF-ARW model.

  5. Mars: A Planet with a Dynamic Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.

    2013-01-01

    Mars is a well-observed planet. Since the 1960s orbiters, landers, rovers, and earth-based telescopic observations show that its climate system is dynamic. Its dynamic nature, largely the result of atmosphere-surface interactions, is most obvious in the seasonal cycles of dust, water, and carbon dioxide that define the planet's climate system. These cycles are linked through the global circulation and MGS, Odyssey, Phoenix, MER, Mars Express, MRO, and now MSL have continuously observed them at Mars for the past 16 years. Their observations show that while the seasonal cycles are largely annually repeatable, there are interannual variations. Planet-encircling dust storms, for example, are quasi-triennial and originate over a broader range of seasons and locations than previously thought. Water moves from pole-to-pole each year in a largely, but not precisely, repeatable pattern that suggests but does not demand non-polar surface reservoirs. And the seasonal CO2 polar caps grow and retreat in a very predictable way with only minor deviations from year-to-year in spite of significant differences in atmospheric dust content. These behaviors suggest a complicated but robust coupled system in which these cycles interact to produce the greatest interannual variability in the dust cycle and least variability in the CO2 cycle. The nature of these interactions is the subject of ongoing research, but clouds, both water ice and CO2 ice, now appear to play a bigger role than believed at the end of the 20th century. There may also be some long-term trends in these cycles as there is evidence from imaging data, for example, that the south polar residual cap may not be stable on decadal to centennial time scales. On even longer time scales, the discovery of as much as 5 mb global equivalent of buried CO2 ice near the south pole, the detection of vast quantities of subsurface water ice at very shallow depths in midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and the presence of remnant glacial

  6. Are we ready to build health systems that consider the climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayhew, Susannah; Van Belle, Sara; Hammer, Michael

    2014-04-01

    At last, climate change does appear to have entered mainstream consciousness. In the scientific community, the climate change debate has shifted from focusing on establishing the truth of the claim that climate change is a reality to warming public opinion to the cause and acknowledging that climate change will have far-reaching effects on how we build, organize and manage climate-responsive social systems including health care systems. There is particular urgency to the debate for health services and systems in low income countries where some of the worst effects of climate change will be felt and where health systems are already over-stretched due to long-term lack of investment, a double burden of disease (preventive and non-communicable), a crisis in human resources and governance deficiencies. Despite the urgency, the health care systems development community appears insular in its interests and actions, and a clear leader that could coordinate the activities of different researchers, research bodies, policy makers and international organizations across relevant sectors including disaster management, climate and health care systems, has yet to emerge. This essay considers the political landscape, possible leaders and why it is necessary for health systems' professionals to move beyond the health sector in order to secure support for health and health care systems development in a post-Millennium Development Goals development framework that is defined by climate change. PMID:24366158

  7. Evaluation of economic impact of climatic change on agro-forestry systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vittorio Gallerani

    Full Text Available Climate change has a strong influence on agro-forestry systems. Present estimations evisage that changes in climate patterns and extreme events connected to climate change will have greater impacts in the future. This paper seeks to illustrate the articulation of the problems concerning the economic evaluation of climate change, with particularly attention to open problems and future lines of research. Research on this topic, though using methods and approaches consolidated in the disciplines of resource economics and evaluation, still have several open problems, particularly in the field of multidisciplinary studies of the man-environmental relations, policy evaluation and development of decision support systems for decision makers.

  8. COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH: TOWARDS ADVANCED UNDERSTANDING AND PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE ARCTIC USING A HIGH-RESOLUTION REGIONAL ARCTIC CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gutowski, William J.

    2013-02-07

    The motivation for this project was to advance the science of climate change and prediction in the Arctic region. Its primary goals were to (i) develop a state-of-the-art Regional Arctic Climate system Model (RACM) including high-resolution atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice and land hydrology components and (ii) to perform extended numerical experiments using high performance computers to minimize uncertainties and fundamentally improve current predictions of climate change in the northern polar regions. These goals were realized first through evaluation studies of climate system components via one-way coupling experiments. Simulations were then used to examine the effects of advancements in climate component systems on their representation of main physics, time-mean fields and to understand variability signals at scales over many years. As such this research directly addressed some of the major science objectives of the BER Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) regarding the advancement of long-term climate prediction.

  9. Final report: The effect of climate change on the Norwegian Energy System towards 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seljom, P.; Rosenberg, E.; Fidje, A.; Meir, M.; Haugen, J.E.; Jarlseth, T.

    2010-08-15

    The climate impact on the renewable resources, end use demand, and on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050 is identified. Climate change will reduce the heat demand, increase the cooling demand, result in no impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro power potential. The total impact is reduced energy system costs, and lower Norwegian electricity prices. The net electricity export will increase, and national investments in new renewable power production like offshore wind- , tidal- and wave power will decrease due to climate change. Additionally, the electricity consumption in the residential and in the commercial sector will decrease, and climate change will lead to an earlier profitable implementation of electric based vehicles in Norway. Despite great uncertainties in the future climate, various future emission scenarios are compatible regarding the Norwegian climate impact, although the magnitude of the impact varies. (Author)

  10. Computing and Systems Applied in Support of Coordinated Energy, Environmental, and Climate Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk focuses on how Dr. Loughlin is applying Computing and Systems models, tools and methods to more fully understand the linkages among energy systems, environmental quality, and climate change. Dr. Loughlin will highlight recent and ongoing research activities, including: ...

  11. Heterogeneous aquifer system modelisation under semi-arid climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drias, Tarek; Toubal, Ahmed Cherif

    2010-05-01

    The studied zone is a part of the Mellegne's (North-East of Algeria) under pound, this zone is characterised by its semi-arid climate. The water bearing system is formed by the plio-quaternairy alluviums resting on a marley substratuim of age Eocene. The geostatiscitcs approach of the hydrodynamics parameters (Hydrolic load, transmisivity) allowed the study of their spatial distrubution (casting) by the method of Krigeage by blocks and the identification of zones with water-bearing potentialities. In this respect, the zone of Ain Chabro which, is situated in the South of the plain shows the best values of the transmisivity...... The use of a bidimensinnel model in the differences ended in the permanent regime allowed us to establish the global balence sheet (overall assessment) of the tablecloth and to refine the transmisivity field. These would vary more exactley between 10-4 to 10-2 m²/s. The method associating the probability appraoch of Krigeage to that determining the model has facilited the wedging of the model and clarified the inflitration value. Keys words: hydrodynamics, geostatiscitcs, Modeling, Chabro, Tébessa.

  12. Nonlinear problems of complex natural systems: Sun and climate dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Bershadskii, A

    2012-01-01

    Universal role of the nonlinear one-third subharmonic resonance mechanism in generation of the strong fluctuations in such complex natural dynamical systems as global climate and global solar activity is discussed using wavelet regression detrended data. Role of the oceanic Rossby waves in the year-scale global temperature fluctuations and the nonlinear resonance contribution to the El Nino phenomenon have been discussed in detail. The large fluctuations of the reconstructed temperature on the millennial time-scales (Antarctic ice cores data for the past 400,000 years) are also shown to be dominated by the one-third subharmonic resonance, presumably related to Earth precession effect on the energy that the intertropical regions receive from the Sun. Effects of Galactic turbulence on the temperature fluctuations are discussed in this content. It is also shown that the one-third subharmonic resonance can be considered as a background for the 11-years solar cycle, and again the global (solar) rotation and chaoti...

  13. Leadership, Organizational Climate, and Working Alliance in a Children's Mental Health Service System

    OpenAIRE

    Green, Amy E; Albanese, Brian J.; Cafri, Guy; Aarons, Gregory A

    2013-01-01

    The goal of this study was to examine the relationships of transformational leadership and organizational climate with working alliance, in a children's mental health service system. Using multilevel structural equation modeling, the effect of leadership on working alliance was mediated by organizational climate. These results suggest that supervisors may be able to impact quality of care through improving workplace climate. Organizational factors should be considered in efforts to improve pu...

  14. Melancholia States in the Climate System: Exploring Global Instabilities and Critical Transitions

    CERN Document Server

    Lucarini, Valerio

    2016-01-01

    Multistability is a ubiquitous feature in systems of geophysical relevance and provides key challenges for our ability to predict a system's response to perturbations. Near critical transitions small causes can lead to large effects and - for all practical purposes - irreversible changes in the properties of the system. The Earth climate is multistable: present astronomical/astrophysical conditions support two stable regimes, the warm climate we live in, and a snowball climate, characterized by global glaciation. We first provide an overview of methods and ideas relevant for studying the climate response to forcings and focus on the properties of critical transitions in the context of both stochastic and deterministic dynamics, and assess strengths and weaknesses of simplified approaches. Following an idea developed by Eckhardt and co. for the investigation of multistable turbulent fluids, we study the global instability giving rise to the snowball/warm multistability in the climate system by identifying the ...

  15. New climate-proof cropping systems in dry areas of the Mediterranean region

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, Sven-Erik

    2014-01-01

    A climate-proof cropping system is a system which is able to mitigate the effects of climate change, which often are unpredictable and extreme. The special issue is related to the subject of improving cropping systems in the Mediterranean region, which is one of the regions in the world facing most...... FP7 project entitled 'Sustainable water use securing food production in dry areas of the Mediterranean region (SWUP-MED)' working on climate-proof cropping systems in Morocco, Syria, Turkey and southern Europe, collaborating with UK, Denmark and Australia. The results are valid for other parts of the...... severe consequences of climate changes, under influence of multiple abiotic stresses. These stresses are becoming even more pronounced under changing climate, resulting in drier conditions, increasing temperatures and greater variability, causing desertification. This topic has been addressed in the EU...

  16. Identifying User Experience Goals for Interactive Climate Management Business Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clemmensen, Torkil; Barlow, Stephanie

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents findings from interpretative phenomenological interviews about the user experience of interactive climate management with six growers and crop consultants. The focus of user experience research has been on quantitative studies of consumers’ initial usage experiences, for examp...

  17. System and Method for Providing a Climate Data Analytic Services Application Programming Interface Distribution Package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schnase, John L. (Inventor); Duffy, Daniel Q. (Inventor); Tamkin, Glenn S. (Inventor)

    2016-01-01

    A system, method and computer-readable storage devices for providing a climate data analytic services application programming interface distribution package. The example system can provide various components. The system provides a climate data analytic services application programming interface library that enables software applications running on a client device to invoke the capabilities of a climate data analytic service. The system provides a command-line interface that provides a means of interacting with a climate data analytic service by issuing commands directly to the system's server interface. The system provides sample programs that call on the capabilities of the application programming interface library and can be used as templates for the construction of new client applications. The system can also provide test utilities, build utilities, service integration utilities, and documentation.

  18. Climatic Change Impact on Water Resources - A Systems Review

    OpenAIRE

    Z. W. Kundzewicz; Somlyody, L.

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change related to natural and anthropogenic processes has been the topic of many research projects and high-level debates. Despite the ongoing research efforts, the climate predictions cannot be rated any better than speculative or possible scenarios whose probability of occurrence is, at the present stage, impossible to assess. One of the most significant impacts of the "greenhouse effect" is anticipated to be on water resources management, including different elements of the ...

  19. Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Mediterranean Irrigated Farming Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Dono, Gabriele; Cortignani, Raffaele; Doro, Luca; Ledda, Luigi; Roggero, PierPaolo; Giraldo, Luca; Severini, Simone

    2011-01-01

    In the agricultural sector, climate change (CC) affects multiple weather variables at different stages of crop cycles. CC may influence the mean level or affect the distribution of events (e.g., rainfall, temperature). This work evaluates the economic impact of CC-related changes in multiple climatic components, and the resulting uncertainty. For this purpose, a three-stage discrete stochastic programming model is used to represents farm sector of an irrigated area of Italy and to examine the...

  20. Progress Report 2008: A Scalable and Extensible Earth System Model for Climate Change Science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drake, John B [ORNL; Worley, Patrick H [ORNL; Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Jones, Phil [Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL)

    2009-01-01

    This project employs multi-disciplinary teams to accelerate development of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), based at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). A consortium of eight Department of Energy (DOE) National Laboratories collaborate with NCAR and the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). The laboratories are Argonne (ANL), Brookhaven (BNL) Los Alamos (LANL), Lawrence Berkeley (LBNL), Lawrence Livermore (LLNL), Oak Ridge (ORNL), Pacific Northwest (PNNL) and Sandia (SNL). The work plan focuses on scalablity for petascale computation and extensibility to a more comprehensive earth system model. Our stated goal is to support the DOE mission in climate change research by helping ... To determine the range of possible climate changes over the 21st century and beyond through simulations using a more accurate climate system model that includes the full range of human and natural climate feedbacks with increased realism and spatial resolution.

  1. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system : Part 2: Computed scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Van Den Born, G.J.; Bouwman, A.F.; De Haan, B.J.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Klepper, O.; Krabec, J.; Leemans, R.; Olivier, J.G.J.; Toet, A.M.C.; De Vries, H.J.M.; Van Der Woerd, H.J.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concent

  2. Building Response Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2009-01-01

    This report, Building Response Strategies to Climate Change in Agricultural Systems in Latin America, reports the results of action research to identify and prioritize stakeholder driven, locally relevant response options to climate change in Latin American agriculture. The study has three primary objectives. The first is to develop and apply a pilot methodology for assessing agricultural ...

  3. The contribution of command, control and signalling systems to protecting the environment and the climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leibbrand, Hans; Stenke, Iris-Marina [Thales Rail Signalling Solutions GmbH, Stuttgart (Germany)

    2009-09-15

    Energy is expensive, and the emissions of gases affecting the climate, resulting from the consumption of fuels and electricity, are not of a negligible amount. The modern command, control and signalling systems that are used by railways are thus also capable of making their contribution to protecting the environment and the climate. (orig.)

  4. Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willems, P.; Olsson, J.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    Impacts of Climate Change on Rainfall Extremes and Urban Drainage Systems provides a state-of-the-art overview of existing methodologies and relevant results related to the assessment of the climate change impacts on urban rainfall extremes as well as on urban hydrology and hydraulics. This overv...

  5. Impact of Climate Change on the Storm Water System in Al Hillah City-Iraq

    OpenAIRE

    Al Janabi, Firas

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change is increasingly important to the design of urban water infrastructure like stormwater systems, sewage systems and drinking water systems. Growing evidence indicates that the water sector will not only be affected by climate change, but it will reflect and deliver many of its impacts through floods, droughts, or extreme rainfall events. Water resources will change in both quantity and quality, and the infrastructure of stormwater and wastewater facilities may face ...

  6. Global warming potential of French grassland-based dairy livestock systems under climate change.

    OpenAIRE

    GRAUX Anne-Isabelle; Lardy, Romain; Bellocchi, Gianni; Soussana, Jean-François

    2012-01-01

    Despite the increasing interest in assessing the greenhouse gas (GHG) budget of livestock production systems, little is known about the possible impacts of climate change on the future contribution of such systems to global warming. The aim of this study was to assess the global warming potential (GWP) of differently managed grassland-based dairy systems, based either on permanent or on sown grasslands, under climate change at two sites: Avignon (sub-arid/arid) and Mirecourt (sub-humid/humid)...

  7. Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations. (letter)

  8. Climate system properties determining the social cost of carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otto, Alexander; Todd, Benjamin J.; Bowerman, Niel; Frame, David J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2013-06-01

    The choice of an appropriate scientific target to guide global mitigation efforts is complicated by uncertainties in the temperature response to greenhouse gas emissions. Much climate policy discourse has been based on the equilibrium global mean temperature increase following a concentration stabilization scenario. This is determined by the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) which, in many studies, shows persistent, fat-tailed uncertainty. However, for many purposes, the equilibrium response is less relevant than the transient response. Here, we show that one prominent policy variable, the social cost of carbon (SCC), is generally better constrained by the transient climate response (TCR) than by the ECS. Simple analytic expressions show the SCC to be directly proportional to the TCR under idealized assumptions when the rate at which we discount future damage equals 2.8%. Using ensemble simulations of a simple climate model we find that knowing the true value of the TCR can reduce the relative uncertainty in the SCC substantially more, up to a factor of 3, than knowing the ECS under typical discounting assumptions. We conclude that the TCR, which is better constrained by observations, less subject to fat-tailed uncertainty and more directly related to the SCC, is generally preferable to the ECS as a single proxy for the climate response in SCC calculations.

  9. Ventilation system on trial. Wholesome room climate in a climatic spa; Lueften auf Probe.... Gesundes Wohnraumklima im Luftkurort

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    2009-03-15

    ''Haus Sonnenstrahl'' is a holiday home with five flats at Schoenberg village, which is part of the officially recognised climatic spa of Seelbach in the Black Forest, just below the gothic ruins of Geroldseck castle. In October 2007, modernisation of the building was started with the installation of an automatic ventilation system in one of the flats, which now ensures optimum air quality inside the flat as well as outside. (orig.).

  10. Developing a Pilot Indicator System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Arndt, D. S.; Pouyat, R. V.; Aicher, R.; Lloyd, A.; Malik, O.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    The National Climate Indicators System is being developed as part of sustained assessment activities associated with the U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA). The NCA is conducted under the U.S. Global Change Research Program, which is required to provide a report to Congress every 4 years. The National Climate Indicators System is a set of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information. The Indicators System will address questions important to multiple audiences including (but not limited to) nonscientists (e.g., Congress, U.S. citizens, students), resource managers, and state and municipal planners in a conceptually unified framework. The physical, ecological, and societal indicators will be scalable, to provide information for indicators at national, state, regional, and local scales. The pilot system is a test of the Indicators System for evaluation purposes to assess the readiness of indicators and usability of the system. The National Climate Indicator System has developed a pilot given the recommendations of over 150+ scientists and practitioners and 14 multidisciplinary teams, including, for example, greenhouse gases, forests, grasslands, water, human health, oceans and coasts, and energy. The pilot system of indicators includes approximately 20 indicators that are already developed, scientifically vetted, and implementable immediately. Specifically, the pilot indicators include a small set of global climate context indicators, which provide context for the national or regional indicators, as well as a set of nationally important U.S. natural system and human sector indicators. The purpose of the pilot is to work with stakeholder communities to evaluate the system and the individual indicators using a robust portfolio of evaluation studies, which

  11. Robust cropping systems to tackle pests under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lamichhane, Jay Ram; Barzman, Marco; Booij, Kees;

    2015-01-01

    Agriculture in the twenty-first century faces the challenge of meeting food demands while satisfying sustainability goals. The challenge is further complicated by climate change which affects the distribution of crop pests (intended as insects, plants, and pathogenic agents injurious to crops......) and the severity of their outbreaks. Increasing concerns over health and the environment as well as new legislation on pesticide use, particularly in the European Union, urge us to find sustainable alternatives to pesticide-based pest management. Here, we review the effect of climate change on crop protection...... and propose strategies to reduce the impact of future invasive as well as rapidly evolving resident populations. The major points are the following: (1) the main consequence of climate change and globalization is a heightened level of unpredictability of spatial and temporal interactions between weather...

  12. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing [University of Illinois-Urbana; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul [Stanford University; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael [National Center for Atmospheric Research; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  13. Knowledge systems of societies for adaptation and mitigation of impacts of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is broadly recognized as a key environmental issue affecting social and ecological systems worldwide. At the Cancun summit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's 16th Conference, the parties jointly agreed that the vulnerable groups particularly in developing countries and whose livelihood is based on land use practices are the most common victims as in most cases their activities are shaped by the climate. Therefore, solving the climate dilemma through mitigation processes and scientific research is an ethical concern. Thus combining the knowledge systems of the societies and scientific evidences can greatly assist in the creation of coping mechanisms for sustainable development in a situation of changing climate. International Humboldt Kolleg focusing on ''knowledge systems of societies and Climate Change'' was organized at ISEC. This event was of unique importance, as the year 2011-12 was celebrated as the 60th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between India and Germany with the motto ''Germany and India - Infinite Opportunities.'' This volume is the outcome of the papers presented during the IHK 2011 at ISEC, India. It reports on the present knowledge systems in a third world country which has always practiced a live and let live philosophy. Furthermore it provides valuable information for understanding the complexity of socio-ecological systems in relation to the projected impacts of climate change.

  14. Knowledge systems of societies for adaptation and mitigation of impacts of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nautiyal, Sunil; Raju, K.V. [Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources; Rao, K.S. [Delhi Univ. (India). Dept. of Botany; Kaechele, Harald [Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Muencheberg (Germany). Inst. of Socioeconomics; Schaldach, Ruediger (ed.) [Kassel Univ. (Germany). Centre for Environmental System Research

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is broadly recognized as a key environmental issue affecting social and ecological systems worldwide. At the Cancun summit of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change's 16th Conference, the parties jointly agreed that the vulnerable groups particularly in developing countries and whose livelihood is based on land use practices are the most common victims as in most cases their activities are shaped by the climate. Therefore, solving the climate dilemma through mitigation processes and scientific research is an ethical concern. Thus combining the knowledge systems of the societies and scientific evidences can greatly assist in the creation of coping mechanisms for sustainable development in a situation of changing climate. International Humboldt Kolleg focusing on ''knowledge systems of societies and Climate Change'' was organized at ISEC. This event was of unique importance, as the year 2011-12 was celebrated as the 60th Anniversary of Diplomatic Relations between India and Germany with the motto ''Germany and India - Infinite Opportunities.'' This volume is the outcome of the papers presented during the IHK 2011 at ISEC, India. It reports on the present knowledge systems in a third world country which has always practiced a live and let live philosophy. Furthermore it provides valuable information for understanding the complexity of socio-ecological systems in relation to the projected impacts of climate change.

  15. Self-organized criticality of power system faults and its application in adaptation to extreme climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SU Sheng; LI YinHong; DUAN XianZhong

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes the statistics of faults in a transmission and distribution networks in central China, unveils long-term autocorrelation and power law distribution of power system faults, which indicates that power system fault has self-organized criticality (SOC) feature. The conclusion is consistent with the power systems data in 2008 with ice storm present. Since power systems cover large areas, climate is the key factor to its safety and stability. In-depth analysis shows that the SOC of atmosphere system contributes much to that of power system faults. Extreme climate will be more intense and frequent with global warming, it will have more and more impact upon power systems. The SOC feature of power system faults is utilized to develop approaches to facilitate power systems adaptation to climate varia-tion in an economical and efficient way.

  16. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Western US Electricity System: A Scoping Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughlin, Katie; Goldman, Charles

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of the possible physical impacts of climate change on the electric power system, and how these impacts could be incorporated into resource planning in the Western United States. While many aspects of climate change and energy have been discussed in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic review of the relationship between specific physical effects and the quantitative analyses that are commonly used in planning studies. The core of the problem is to understand how the electric system is vulnerable to physical weather risk, and how to make use of information from climate models to characterize the way these risks may evolve over time, including a treatment of uncertainty. In this paper, to provide the necessary technical background in climate science, we present an overview of the basic physics of climate and explain some of the methodologies used in climate modeling studies, particularly the importance of emissions scenarios. We also provide a brief survey of recent climate-related studies relevant to electric system planning in the Western US. To define the institutional context, we discuss the core elements of the resource and reliability planning processes used currently by utilities and by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. To illustrate more precisely how climate-related risk could be incorporated into modeling exercises, we discuss three idealized examples. Overall, we argue that existing methods of analysis can and should be extended to encompass the uncertainties related to future climate. While the focus here is on risk related to physical impacts, the same principles apply to a consideration of how future climate change policy decisions might impact the design and functioning of the electric grid. We conclude with some suggestions and recommendations on how to begin developing this approach within the existing electric system planning framework for the West.

  17. Influence of Sea Ice on Arctic Marine Sulfur Biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deal, Clara [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States); Jin, Meibing [Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AL (United States)

    2013-06-30

    Global climate models (GCMs) have not effectively considered how responses of arctic marine ecosystems to a warming climate will influence the global climate system. A key response of arctic marine ecosystems that may substantially influence energy exchange in the Arctic is a change in dimethylsulfide (DMS) emissions, because DMS emissions influence cloud albedo. This response is closely tied to sea ice through its impacts on marine ecosystem carbon and sulfur cycling, and the ice-albedo feedback implicated in accelerated arctic warming. To reduce the uncertainty in predictions from coupled climate simulations, important model components of the climate system, such as feedbacks between arctic marine biogeochemistry and climate, need to be reasonably and realistically modeled. This research first involved model development to improve the representation of marine sulfur biogeochemistry simulations to understand/diagnose the control of sea-ice-related processes on the variability of DMS dynamics. This study will help build GCM predictions that quantify the relative current and possible future influences of arctic marine ecosystems on the global climate system. Our overall research objective was to improve arctic marine biogeochemistry in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM, now CESM). Working closely with the Climate Ocean Sea Ice Model (COSIM) team at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), we added 1 sea-ice algae and arctic DMS production and related biogeochemistry to the global Parallel Ocean Program model (POP) coupled to the LANL sea ice model (CICE). Both CICE and POP are core components of CESM. Our specific research objectives were: 1) Develop a state-of-the-art ice-ocean DMS model for application in climate models, using observations to constrain the most crucial parameters; 2) Improve the global marine sulfur model used in CESM by including DMS biogeochemistry in the Arctic; and 3) Assess how sea ice influences DMS dynamics in the arctic marine

  18. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

  19. Development and application of an interactive climate-ecosystem model system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Ming; D. Pollard

    2003-01-01

    A regional climate-ecosystem model system is developed in this study. It overcomes the weakness in traditional one-way coupling models and enables detailed description of interactive process between climate and natural ecosystem. It is applied to interaction study between monsoon climate and ecosystem in East Asia, with emphasis on future climate and ecosystem change scenario forced by doubled CO2. The climate tends to be warmer and wetter under doubled CO2 in Jianghuai and the Yangzi River valley, but it becomes warmer and drier in inland areas of northern and northwestern China. The largest changes and feedbacks between vegetation and climate occur in northern China. Northern inland ecosystems experience considerable degradation and desertification, indicating a marked sensitivity and vulnerability to climatic change. The strongest vegetation response to climate change occurs in northern China and the weakest in southern China. Vegetation feedbacks intensify warming and reduce drying due to increased CO2 during summer in northern China. Generally, vegetation-climate interactions are much stronger in northern China than in southern China.

  20. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) NCEP-Global Forecast System (GFS) Precipitation Forecast Product

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast precipitation data at 37.5km resolution is created at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center for the purpose of near real-time...

  1. Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Easterling, W. E.

    2014-12-01

    The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

  2. Cpl6: The New Extensible, High-Performance Parallel Coupler forthe Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Craig, Anthony P.; Jacob, Robert L.; Kauffman, Brain; Bettge,Tom; Larson, Jay; Ong, Everest; Ding, Chris; He, Yun

    2005-03-24

    Coupled climate models are large, multiphysics applications designed to simulate the Earth's climate and predict the response of the climate to any changes in the forcing or boundary conditions. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) is a widely used state-of-art climate model that has released several versions to the climate community over the past ten years. Like many climate models, CCSM employs a coupler, a functional unit that coordinates the exchange of data between parts of climate system such as the atmosphere and ocean. This paper describes the new coupler, cpl6, contained in the latest version of CCSM,CCSM3. Cpl6 introduces distributed-memory parallelism to the coupler, a class library for important coupler functions, and a standardized interface for component models. Cpl6 is implemented entirely in Fortran90 and uses Model Coupling Toolkit as the base for most of its classes. Cpl6 gives improved performance over previous versions and scales well on multiple platforms.

  3. Adaptation potential to climate change of the Peribonka River (Quebec, Canada) water resources system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study investigated the influence of climatic change on the Peribonka water resources system. The impacts of climatic change on hydroelectric power reservoir operations in the region were assessed using a set of operating rules optimized for future hydrological regimes. Thirty climate change projections from 5 climate models, 2 greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios, and 3 temporal horizons were used in the study. Climatic change projections were then downscaled using the Delta approach and coupled to a stochastic weather generator developed to account for natural variabilities in local climates. A lumped hydrological model was used to simulate future hydrological regimes. A stochastic dynamic programming technique was then used to optimize reservoir operating rules for various time series of future river flows. The operating rules were then used in conjunction with a river system simulation tool in order to determine reservoir and hydroelectric production scenarios under different climatic change regimes. Results of the study showed significant increases in hydroelectricity production for most of the climate change projections. However, nonproductive spillage was also increased. Reservoir reliability was also reduced. tabs., figs

  4. Systems thinking methodology in researching the impacts of climate change on livestock industry

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen, Quan; Nguyen, Nam Cao

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on livestock production are complex problems, existing in the rela-tionship among this sector and others sectors such as environmental, social, economic and political systems. The complexity and dynamic of these impacts cannot be solved simply in isolation with the linear approach. A system thinking methodology is introduced in this paper to understand the impacts of climate change on livestock production, and identify effective interventions strategies to addres...

  5. Economic analysis of hybrid power systems (PV/diesel) in different climatic zones of Tamil Nadu

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Investigation on economic feasibility of PV/diesel system in various climatic zones. • HOMER is used to solve economic feasibility analysis. • By the sensitivity analysis, the net present cost is reduced. • Optimum climatic zone in Tamil Nadu, India is recommended. - Abstract: With the increasing threat to environment and the fast depleting fossil fuel resources, hybrid power systems consisting of two or more renewable energy sources such as solar PV, wind, biomass, ocean thermal-with or without the back up of diesel generator have come to the forefront. These hybrid systems are normally integrated with battery banks for total reliability; such systems have brought about better quality of life in remote areas of developing economics. The remote areas in the state of Tamil Nadu in India possess excellent renewable energy sources. These areas fall under different climatic zones, are sparsely populated and are in the process of development. Though these areas are connected to the grid, Tamil Nadu grid is not stable; it is currently experiencing 40% short fall in generation. Thus grid power is available to these remote areas only for 10 h a day and even when available, there are voltage frequency problems. This paper analyses the economic feasibility of installing and operating hybrid systems in these areas. The areas are divided into different climatic zones and the hybrid system economy is analyzed for each climatic zone on the basis of NPC (net present cost), consumption of diesel and renewable fraction for all climate zones. The analysis indicates that the interior climatic zone – the area would be the optimum climatic zone to install HPS PV/diesel. The sensitivity analysis proves that the NPC of such a system can be reduced. It is suggested that due to high initial cost, government subsidy is necessary to adopt the system on a large scale. Such a profit will encourage development of renewable energy utilization and bring about rapid

  6. Impacts of Climate Change on Wastewater Systems in Reykjavík

    OpenAIRE

    Ásta Ósk Hlöðversdóttir 1982

    2011-01-01

    Due to climate change, precipitation is projected to increase in Northern Europe (Bates et. al., 2008). Such changes can influence the design and management of wastewater systems. Most of the current climate change studies have not analyzed short duration precipitation which is needed for wastewater system design. The objectives of this project are first to investigate whether changes in short duration extreme precipitation have occurred in Reykjavík in the past decades, then to assess increa...

  7. Cognitive Structure of Climate Information System Actors:Using Causal Mapping Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Maryam Sharifzadeh; Gholamhossein Zamani; Mohammadtaghi Iman; Ezatolah Karami

    2012-01-01

    Promoting sustainability, productivity, efficiency, and development of agricultural sector are the functions of utilization of appropriate information in terms of agricultural climate information system (ACIS). In this regard, the main question is that, to what extent does the ACIS lead to or provide the necessary context for agricultural development? This research aimed to employ causal mapping approach to investigate cognitive structure of human actors in a climate information system. This ...

  8. Planning and costing adaptation of perennial crop systems to climate change: Coffee and banana in Rwanda

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ngabitsinze, Jean Chrysostome; Mukashema, Adrie; Ikirezi, Mireille; Niyitanga, Fidele

    2011-10-15

    The Rwandan economy is mainly based on agriculture. Since agricultural production in Rwanda depends almost exclusively on the quality of the rainy season and specific temperature ranges, it makes the country particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change. The study objective of evaluating and costing the most suitable climate change adaptation measures for this geographic context responds to the Rwandan Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy, 2008-2012 (EDPRS) (MINECOFIN 2007), in which climate change and its adverse impacts were recently identified as a high priority. This study has particularly focused on coffee and banana farming systems and aimed at analysing shocks due to climate change from farmer to policymaker perspectives. The study found that in the last 30 years, Rwanda has experienced a series of climate fluctuations in terms of frequency, intensity, and persistence of existing extremes. Heavy rains, storms, heatwaves and droughts are the observed manifestations of climate change in specific areas of Rwanda. Changing weather patterns have an adverse impact on the country's agricultural production and thus on the country's GDP. Adaptation options for Rwanda include the following efficiency-enhancing agricultural interventions: 1. Adaption of crop calendars to new climate patterns (more effective distribution of inputs such as fertilizers and pesticides). 2. Investments in farming equipment. 3. Improvement of extension services and research. 4. Restructuring of the institutional frameworks and development plans. Integrated water resources management (IWRM); setting up information systems for early warning systems and rapid intervention mechanisms; intense agri-pastoral activities; and research on climate-resilient varieties were identified as primary requirements for agricultural adaption to climate change. In addition, developing alternative energy sources (e.g., substituting firewood) and the promotion of non

  9. Teaching Scales in the Climate System: An example of interdisciplinary teaching and learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baehr, Johanna; Behrens, Jörn; Brüggemann, Michael; Frisius, Thomas; Glessmer, Mirjam S.; Hartmann, Jens; Hense, Inga; Kaleschke, Lars; Kutzbach, Lars; Rödder, Simone; Scheffran, Jürgen

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is commonly regarded as one of 21st century's grand challenges that needs to be addressed by conducting integrated research combining natural and social sciences. To meet this need, how to best train future climate researchers should be reconsidered. Here, we present our experience from a team-taught semester-long course with students of the international master program "Integrated Climate System Sciences" (ICSS) at the University of Hamburg, Germany. Ten lecturers with different backgrounds in physical, mathematical, biogeochemical and social sciences accompanied by a researcher trained in didactics prepared and regularly participated in a course which consisted of weekly classes. The foundation of the course was the use of the concept of 'scales' - climate varying on different temporal and spatial scales - by developing a joint definition of 'scales in the climate system' that is applicable in the natural sciences and in the social sciences. By applying this interdisciplinary definition of 'scales' to phenomena from all components of the climate system and the socio-economic dimensions, we aimed for an integrated description of the climate system. Following the concept of research-driven teaching and learning and using a variety of teaching techniques, the students designed their own scale diagram to illustrate climate-related phenomena in different disciplines. The highlight of the course was the presentation of individually developed scale diagrams by every student with all lecturers present. Based on the already conducted course, we currently re-design the course concept to be teachable by a similarly large group of lecturers but with alternating presence in class. With further refinement and also a currently ongoing documentation of the teaching material, we will continue to use the concept of 'scales' as a vehicle for teaching an integrated view of the climate system.

  10. Actor Network Theory Approach and its Application in Investigating Agricultural Climate Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Sharifzadeh

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Actor network theory as a qualitative approach to study complex social factors and process of socio-technical interaction provides new concepts and ideas to understand socio-technical nature of information systems. From the actor network theory viewpoint, agricultural climate information system is a network consisting of actors, actions and information related processes (production, transformation, storage, retrieval, integration, diffusion and utilization, control and management, and system mechanisms (interfaces and networks. Analysis of such systemsembody the identification of basic components and structure of the system (nodes –thedifferent sources of information production, extension, and users, and the understanding of how successfully the system works (interaction and links – in order to promote climate knowledge content and improve system performance to reach agricultural development. The present research attempted to introduce actor network theory as research framework based on network view of agricultural climate information system.

  11. Influence of external climate forcing on coastal upwelling systems analysed in ensemble of past millennium climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tim, Nele; Zorita, Eduardo; Hünicke, Birgit; Yi, Xin; Emeis, Kay

    2016-04-01

    Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems are highly productive coastal ocean areas where nutrient rich, cold water upwells by the action of favorable winds. Observations over the 20th century and ocean sediment records, which may be indicative of upwelling, display an intensification due to stronger external climate forcing, such as increasing greenhouse gas concentrations or changes in solar irradiance. This intensification is compatible with the hypothesis put forward by Bakun (1990) that a stronger external radiative forcing should lead to a more intense coastal upwelling. Here, we analyze ensemble of simulations covering the past millennium with the aim of identifying and quantifying the role of external climate forcing on upwelling in the major Eastern Boundary Upwelling System. We analyse the decadal variability and centennial trends of upwelling in ensemble of simulations with the global climate model MPI-ESM covering the past millennium, the last 150 years and the next 100 years. The future simulations were driven by three IPCC scenarios of concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases, RCP2.5, RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5. For the past millennium and the last 150 years, coastal upwelling does not show any imprint of external forcing. This result indicates that chaotic internal variability has dominated upwelling intensity in major upwelling regions over the last thousand years and even since industrialisation up to present. For the 21st century, all ensemble members show a consistent and significant intensification of upwelling in the strongest scenario RCP8.5 for the Benguela upwelling region, consistent and significant weakening for Morocco and California, and no significant change for the Peruvian upwelling. Weaker scenarios do not produce consistent long-term trends that are replicated in all ensemble members. The results are confirmed by analysing another ensemble of past millennium simulations with the model CESM-CAM5 (Community Earth System Model

  12. Nonlinear evolution characteristics of the climate system on the interdecadal-centennial timescale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xin-Quan; Zhang Wen

    2005-01-01

    To better understand the physical mechanism of the climate change on interdecadal-centennial timescale, this paper focuses on analysing and modelling the evolution characteristics of the climate change. The method of wavelet transform is used to pick out the interdecadal timescale oscillations from long-term instrumental observations, natural proxy records, and modelling series. The modelling series derived from the most simplified nonlinear climatic model are used to identify whether modifications are concerned with some forcings such as the solar radiation on the climate system. The results show that two major oscillations exist in various observations and model series, namely the 2030a and the 60-70a timescale respectively, and these quasi-periodicities are modulated with time. Further, modelling results suggest that the originations of these oscillations are not directly linked with the periodic variation of solar radiations such as the 1-year cycle, the 11-year cycle, and others, but possibly induced by the internal nonlinear effects of the climate system. It seems that the future study on the genesis of the climate change with interdecadal-centennial timescale should focus on the internal nonlinear dynamics in the climate system.

  13. The Geographic Climate Information System Project (GEOCLIMA): Overview and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feidas, H.; Zanis, P.; Melas, D.; Vaitis, M.; Anadranistakis, E.; Symeonidis, P.; Pantelopoulos, S.

    2012-04-01

    The project GEOCLIMA aims at developing an integrated Geographic Information System (GIS) allowing the user to manage, analyze and visualize the information which is directly or indirectly related to climate and its future projections in Greece. The main components of the project are: a) collection and homogenization of climate and environmental related information, b) estimation of future climate change based on existing regional climate model (RCM) simulations as well as a supplementary high resolution (10 km x 10 km) simulation over the period 1961-2100 using RegCM3, c) compilation of an integrated uniform geographic database, and d) mapping of climate data, creation of digital thematic maps, and development of the integrated web GIS application. This paper provides an overview of the ongoing research efforts and preliminary results of the project. First, the trends in the annual and seasonal time series of precipitation and air temperature observations for all available stations in Greece are assessed. Then the set-up of the high resolution RCM simulation (10 km x 10 km) is discussed with respect to the selected convective scheme. Finally, the relationship of climatic variables with geophysical features over Greece such as altitude, location, distance from the sea, slope, aspect, distance from climatic barriers, land cover etc) is investigated, to support climate mapping. The research has been co-financed by the European Union (European Regional Development Fund) and Greek national funds through the Operational Program "Competitiveness and Entrepreneurship" of the National Strategic Reference Framework (NSRF) - Research Funding Program COOPERATION 2009.

  14. BioCAS: Biometeorological Climate impact Assessment System for building-scale impact assessment of heat-stress related mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Kim, Kyu Rang; Yi, Chaeyeon; Lee, Ji-Sun; Jänicke, Britta; Fehrenbach, Ute; Scherer, Dieter

    2014-01-01

    An urban climate analysis system for Seoul was combined with biometeorological models for the spatially distributed assessment of heat stress risks. The Biometeorological Climate impact Assessment System (BioCAS) is based on the Climate Analysis Seoul (CAS) workbench which provides urban planners with gridded data relevant for local climate assessment at 25 m and 5 m spatial resolutions. The influence of building morphology and vegetation on mean radiant temperature Tmrt was simulated by the ...

  15. Climate mitigation comparison of woody biomass systems with the inclusion of land-use in the reference fossil system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    While issues of land-use have been considered in many direct analyses of biomass systems, little attention has heretofore been paid to land-use in reference fossil systems. Here we address this limitation by comparing forest biomass systems to reference fossil systems with explicit consideration of land-use in both systems. We estimate and compare the time profiles of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) of woody biomass systems and reference fossil systems. A life cycle perspective is used that includes all significant elements of both systems, including GHG emissions along the full material and energy chains. We consider the growth dynamics of forests under different management regimes, as well as energy and material substitution effects of harvested biomass. We determine the annual net emissions of CO2, N2O and CH4 for each system over a 240-year period, and then calculate time profiles of CRF as a proxy measurement of climate change impact. The results show greatest potential for climate change mitigation when intensive forest management is applied in the woody biomass system. This methodological framework provides a tool to help determine optimal strategies for managing forests so as to minimize climate change impacts. The inclusion of land-use in the reference system improves the accuracy of quantitative projections of climate benefits of biomass-based systems. - Highlights: • We analyze the dynamics of GHG emissions from woody biomass and fossil systems. • With a life cycle perspective, we account for forest land-use in both systems. • Replacing more carbon intensive fossil fuels gives greater climate benefit. • Increasing the intensity of forest management gives greater climate benefit. • Methodological choices in defining temporal system boundaries are important

  16. Detecting and Attributing External Influences on the Climate System: A Review of Recent Advances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnett, T; Zwiers, F; Hegerl, G; Allen, M; Crowley, T; Gillett, N; Hasselmann, K; Jones, P; Santer, B; Schnur, R; Stott, P; Taylor, K; Tett, S

    2005-01-26

    We review recent research that assesses evidence for the detection of anthropogenic and natural external influences on the climate. Externally driven climate change has been detected by a number of investigators in independent data covering many parts of the climate system, including surface temperature on global and large regional scales, ocean-heat content, atmospheric circulation, and variables of the free atmosphere, such as atmospheric temperature and tropopause height. The influence of external forcing is also clearly discernible in reconstructions of hemispheric scale temperature of the last millennium. These observed climate changes are very unlikely to be due only to natural internal climate variability, and they are consistent with the responses to anthropogenic and natural external forcing of the climate system that are simulated with climate models. The evidence indicates that natural drivers such as solar variability and volcanic activity are at most partially responsible for the large-scale temperature changes observed over the past century, and that a large fraction of the warming over the last 50 years can be attributed to greenhouse gas increases. Thus the recent research supports and strengthens the IPCC Third Assessment Report conclusion that ''most of the global warming over the past 50 years is likely due to the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gases''.

  17. Evaluating synoptic systems in the CMIP5 climate models over the Australian region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Peter B.; Uotila, Petteri; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah E.; Alexander, Lisa V.; Pitman, Andrew J.

    2016-01-01

    Climate models are our principal tool for generating the projections used to inform climate change policy. Our confidence in projections depends, in part, on how realistically they simulate present day climate and associated variability over a range of time scales. Traditionally, climate models are less commonly assessed at time scales relevant to daily weather systems. Here we explore the utility of a self-organizing maps (SOMs) procedure for evaluating the frequency, persistence and transitions of daily synoptic systems in the Australian region simulated by state-of-the-art global climate models. In terms of skill in simulating the climatological frequency of synoptic systems, large spread was observed between models. A positive association between all metrics was found, implying that relative skill in simulating the persistence and transitions of systems is related to skill in simulating the climatological frequency. Considering all models and metrics collectively, model performance was found to be related to model horizontal resolution but unrelated to vertical resolution or representation of the stratosphere. In terms of the SOM procedure, the timespan over which evaluation was performed had some influence on model performance skill measures, as did the number of circulation types examined. These findings have implications for selecting models most useful for future projections over the Australian region, particularly for projections related to synoptic scale processes and phenomena. More broadly, this study has demonstrated the utility of the SOMs procedure in providing a process-based evaluation of climate models.

  18. Climate information for public health: the role of the IRI climate data library in an integrated knowledge system

    OpenAIRE

    John del Corral; M. Benno Blumenthal; Gilma Mantilla; Pietro Ceccato; Connor, Stephen J; Thomson, Madeleine C.

    2012-01-01

    Public health professionals are increasingly concerned about the potential impact of climate variability and change on health outcomes. Protecting public health from the vagaries of climate requires new working relationships between the public health sector and the providers of climate data and information. The Climate Information for Public Health Action initiative at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) is designed to increase the public health community’s capa...

  19. The Earth System Grid: Supporting the Next Generation of Climate Modeling Research

    CERN Document Server

    Bernholdt, David; Brown, David; Chanchio, Kasidit; Chen, Meili; Chervenak, Ann; Cinquini, Luca; Drach, Bob; Foster, Ian; Fox, Peter; Garcia, Jose; Kesselman, Carl; Markel, Rob; Middleton, Don; Nefedova, Veronika; Pouchard, Line; Shoshani, Arie; Sim, Alex; Strand, Gary; Williams, Dean

    2007-01-01

    Understanding the earth's climate system and how it might be changing is a preeminent scientific challenge. Global climate models are used to simulate past, present, and future climates, and experiments are executed continuously on an array of distributed supercomputers. The resulting data archive, spread over several sites, currently contains upwards of 100 TB of simulation data and is growing rapidly. Looking toward mid-decade and beyond, we must anticipate and prepare for distributed climate research data holdings of many petabytes. The Earth System Grid (ESG) is a collaborative interdisciplinary project aimed at addressing the challenge of enabling management, discovery, access, and analysis of these critically important datasets in a distributed and heterogeneous computational environment. The problem is fundamentally a Grid problem. Building upon the Globus toolkit and a variety of other technologies, ESG is developing an environment that addresses authentication, authorization for data access, large-sc...

  20. Leaf physiognomy and climate: Are monsoon systems different?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacques, Frédéric M. B.; Su, Tao; Spicer, Robert A.; Xing, Yaowu; Huang, Yongjiang; Wang, Weiming; Zhou, Zhekun

    2011-03-01

    Our understanding of past climatic changes depends on our ability to obtain reliable palaeoclimate reconstructions. Climate Leaf Analysis Multivariate Program (CLAMP) uses the physiognomy of woody dicot leaf assemblages to quantitatively reconstruct terrestrial palaeoclimates. However, the present calibrations do not always allow us to reconstruct correctly the climate of some regions due to differing palaeofloristic histories. Present calibrations are also inappropriate for regions experiencing strong monsoon regimes. To help solve this problem, we have established a new calibration that can accommodate monsoonal climates in Asia. Our new calibration is based on the Physg3brcAZ dataset with 45 new Chinese sites added. These Chinese sites are taken from humid to mesic vegetations across China, and all are influenced by monsoonal conditions to some extent. They plot in a distinct part of physiognomic space, whether they are analysed as passive or active samples. The standard deviations for the new monsoonal calibration (1.25 °C for MAT and 217.7 mm for GSP) are in the same range as those observed for previous calibrations. The new monsoonal calibration was tested using a cross validation procedure. The estimates derived from the new monsoonal calibration (PhysgAsia1) for the Chinese sites are more accurate than those obtained from the Physg3brcAZ calibration, especially for the moisture related parameters. The mean absolute error for GSP of the Chinese sites is 294.6 mm in the new monsoonal calibration, whereas it was 1609.6 mm in the Physg3brcAZ calibration. Results for the three wettest months and three driest months are also more accurate and precise, which allows us to study the seasonality of the precipitation, and hence the monsoon. The new monsoonal calibration also gives accurate results for enthalpy reconstruction. Enthalpy is a parameter that is used for palaeoaltimetry, the new calibration is therefore useful for studies of land surface height changes in

  1. Coupled water-energy modelling to assess climate change impacts on the Iberian Power System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pereira Cardenal, Silvio Javier; Madsen, H.; Riegels, N.;

    a temperature index method. The delta change approach was used to generate synthetic precipitation and temperature data based on observations (1961-1990) and three regional climate models (2036-2065, CLM, RACMO and REMO). Because modelling generation on 1000+ hydropower plants is intractable, the capacities......Water resources systems and power systems are strongly linked; water is needed for most power generation technologies, and electricity is required in every stage of water usage. In the Iberian Peninsula, climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system: changes in runoff...... the effects of climate change on the current Iberian power system. The Iberian power system is a competitive power market where power price is determined by power supply and demand, and which can be simulated by a market equilibrium model considering the power demand function and the installed capacities...

  2. Diminished Wastewater Treatment: Evaluation of Septic System Performance Under a Climate Change Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, J.; Loomis, G.; Kalen, D.; Boving, T. B.; Morales, I.; Amador, J.

    2015-12-01

    The effects of climate change are expected to reduce the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS), to treat domestic wastewater. In the northeastern U.S., the projected increase in atmospheric temperature, elevation of water tables from rising sea levels, and heightened precipitation will reduce the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment. Incomplete removal of contaminants may lead to transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) to groundwater, increasing the risk to public health and likelihood of eutrophying aquatic ecosystems. Advanced OWTS, which include pre-treatment steps and provide unsaturated drainfields of greater volume relative to conventional OWTS, are expected to be more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify water quality functions for two advanced shallow narrow drainfield types and a conventional drainfield under a current climate scenario and a moderate climate change scenario of 30 cm rise in water table and 5°C increase in soil temperature. While no fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) was released under the current climate scenario, up to 109 CFU FCB/mL (conventional) and up to 20 CFU FCB/mL (shallow narrow) were released under the climate change scenario. Total P removal rates dropped from 100% to 54% (conventional) and 71% (shallow narrow) under the climate change scenario. Total N removal averaged 17% under both climate scenarios in the conventional, but dropped from 5.4% to 0% in the shallow narrow under the climate change scenario, with additional leaching of N in excess of inputs indicating release of previously held N. No significant difference was observed between scenarios for BOD removal. The initial data indicate that while advanced OWTS retain more function under the climate change scenario, all three drainfield types experience some diminished treatment capacity.

  3. Reducing the Vulnerability of Albania's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; James E. Neumann; Strzępek, Kenneth M.; Droogers, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Changes in climate and their impact on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia (ECA). Adaptation measures now in use in Albania, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. There is growing interest at the country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at farm level, and to develo...

  4. Reducing the Vulnerability of Moldova's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change : Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; James E. Neumann; Iglesias, Ana; Boehlert, Brent B.

    2013-01-01

    Changes in climate and their impact on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia (ECA). Adaptation measures now in use in Moldova, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. There is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at farm level, and to develop an...

  5. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    I. Weindl; Lotze-Campen, H.; Popp, A; C. Müller; Havlik, P.; Herrero, M.; Schmitz, C; S. Rolinski

    2015-01-01

    Livestock farming is the world's largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions a...

  6. Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the groundwater system

    OpenAIRE

    J. Dams; Salvadore, E.; T. Van Daele; V. Ntegeka; Willems, P; Batelaan, O.

    2012-01-01

    Given the importance of groundwater for food production and drinking water supply, but also for the survival of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems (GWDTEs) it is essential to assess the impact of climate change on this freshwater resource. In this paper we study with high temporal and spatial resolution the impact of 28 climate change scenarios on the groundwater system of a lowland catchment in Belgium. Our results show for the scenario period 2070–2101 compared w...

  7. Shaping agricultural innovation systems responsive to food insecurity and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Brooks, Sally Heather; Loevinsohn, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Climate change and variability present new challenges for agriculture, particularly for smallholder farmers who continue to be the mainstay of food production in developing countries. Recent global food crises have exposed the structural vulnerability of globalized agri-food systems, highlighting climate change as just one of a complex set of environmental, demographic, social and economic drivers generating instability and food insecurity, the impacts of which disproportionately affect poore...

  8. Climate impacts and oceanic top predators : moving from impacts to adaptation in oceanic systems

    OpenAIRE

    Hobday, A.J.; Young, J.W.; Abe, O.; Costa, D. P.; Cowen, R.K.; Evans, K.; Gasalla, M.A.; Kloser, R; Maury, Olivier; Weng, K. C.

    2013-01-01

    Climate impacts are now widely reported from coastal marine systems, but less is known for the open ocean. Here we review progress in understanding impacts on large pelagic species presented at an international workshop for the Climate Impacts on Oceanic Top Predators programme, and discuss the future with regard to the next phase of adaptation-focused research. Recent highlights include a plan to map the distribution of key species in the foodweb using both acoustics and biochemical techniqu...

  9. Performance of desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy under different climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The performance of the hybrid air conditioning system is studied. • The influence of important operating parameters are estimated. • The ventilation, makeup and mix cycles are investigated at different climate. • The highest COP of the hybrid air conditioning system is 1.03. • The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates. - Abstract: Energy saving still and continue a major seek in our life, due to the continuous increase in energy consumptions. So, a desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy is conducted in the current study. The thermal analysis of air conditioning system with its different components desiccant wheel, solar collector, heat exchanger, ground heat exchanger and water spray evaporative cooler is presented. Three different air conditioning cycles are simulated in the current study for different zones like: hot-dry zone, warm-dry zone, hot-humid zone and the warm-humid zone. The results show that the desiccant air conditioning system successfully provides a better thermal comfort condition in different climates. This hybrid system significantly decreases the supplied air temperature from 12.7 to 21.7 °C at different climate zones. When ωin,air and TReg increasing, COP decreases and the ventilation cycle provides the better COP. The highest COP value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 1.03 while the lowest value is about 0.15. The SHR of makeup cycle is higher than that ventilation cycle at warm and hot-humid zone and vice versa at warm and hot-dry zone. The highest SHR value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 0.99 while the lowest value is about 0.2. The Tsup,air, ωsup,air, COP and SHR isolines may easily be used for pre-evaluating of various cooling cycles in different climates. The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates

  10. Radiation climate and water use studies in intercropping systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A study was conducted to find out radiation climate and water use in intercropping in order to select suitable crop components. Mustard, gram and pea were grown as intercrops of wheat at four irrigation water depth (IW) and cumulative pan evaporation (CPE) ratios. The photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) was again observed to be maximum (0.73 to 0.94 langley min-1) in mustard as compared to pure wheat (0.75 - 0.84 langley min-1), pea (0.20 - 0.84 langley min-1) and gram (0.64 - 0.82 langley min-1) in the mixture. Total radiation in wheat (1.33 - 1.5 langley min-1) with mustard as intercrop was very close to that of pure wheat. Light intensity (LI) was also higher (84.0 - 107.6 x 1000 lux) in mustard compared to pea (77.5 - 98.0 x 1000 lux) and gram (95.8 - 104.4 x 1000 lux). Wheat and mustard mixture was more productive than other intercrops with better water use efficiency and maximum utilization of radiation climate

  11. Climate governance in an international system under conservative hegemony: the role of major powers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Viola

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last five years, climate change has been established as a central civilizational driver of our time. As a result of this development, the most diversified social processes - as well as the fields of science which study them - have had their dynamics altered. In International Relations, this double challenge could be explained as follows: 1 in empirical terms, climate change imposes a deepening of cooperation levels on the international community, considering the global common character of the atmosphere; and 2 to International Relations as a discipline, climate change demands from the scientific community a conceptual review of the categories designed to approach the development of global climate governance. The goal of this article is to discuss in both conceptual and empirical terms the structure of global climate change governance, through an exploratory research, aiming at identifying the key elements that allow understanding its dynamics. To do so, we rely on the concept of climate powers. This discussion is grounded in the following framework: we now live in an international system under conservative hegemony that is unable to properly respond to the problems of interdependence, among which - and mainly -, the climate issue.

  12. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Parmesan, C. [University of Texas, Austin (United States). Patterson Laboratories; Yohe, G. [Wesleyan University, Middletown, Connecticut (United States)

    2003-01-02

    Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems. (author)

  13. The impacts of climate change and urbanisation on drainage in Helsingborg, Sweden: Combined sewer system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semadeni-Davies, Annette; Hernebring, Claes; Svensson, Gilbert; Gustafsson, Lars-Göran

    2008-02-01

    SummaryAssessment of the potential impact of climate change on water systems has been an essential part of hydrological research over the last couple of decades. However, the notion that such assessments should also include technological, demographic and land use changes is relatively recent. In this study, the potential impacts of climate change and continued urbanisation on waste and stormwater flows in the combined sewer of central Helsingborg, South Sweden, have been assessed using a series of DHI MOUSE simulations run with present conditions as well as two climate change scenarios and three progressive urbanisation storylines. At present, overflows of untreated wastewater following heavy rainfalls are a major source of pollution to the coastal receiving waters and there is a worry that increased rainfall could exacerbate the problem. Sewer flows resulting from different urbanisation storylines were simulated for two 10-year periods corresponding to present (1994-2003) and future climates (nominally 2081-2090). In all, 12 simulations were made. Climate change was simulated by altering a high-resolution rainfall record according to the climate-change signal derived from a regional climate model. Urbanisation was simulated by altering model parameters to reflect current trends in demographics and water management. It was found that city growth and projected increases in precipitation, both together and alone, are set to worsen the current drainage problems. Conversely, system renovation and installation of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDS) has a positive effect on the urban environment in general and can largely allay the adverse impacts of both urbanisation and climate change.

  14. Self-organization in the Earth climate system versus Milankovitch-Berger astronomical cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Maslov, Lev A

    2014-01-01

    The Late Pleistocene Antarctic temperature variation curve is decomposed into two parts: cyclic and stochastic. These two parts represent different but tightly interconnected processes and also represent two different types of self-organization of the Earth climate system. The self-organization in the cyclic component is the non-linear auto-oscillation reaction of the Earth climate system, as a whole, to the input of solar radiation. The self-organization in the stochastic component is a nonlinear critical process, taking energy from, and fluctuating around the cyclic component of the temperature variations. The system of ODEs is written to model the cyclic part of the temperature variation, and the multifractal spectrum of the stochastic part of the temperature variation is calculated. The Earth climate can be characterized as an open, complex, self-organized dynamical system with nonlinear reaction to the input of solar radiation.

  15. A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: application of Spherical Centroidal A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: Application of Spherical Centroidal Voroni Tessellations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ringler, Todd D [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Gunzburger, Max [FLORIDA STATE UNIV; Ju, Lili [UNIV OF SOUTH CAROLINA

    2008-01-01

    During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multi-resolution schemes that are able, at least regional to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical Centroidal Voronoi Tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of robust, multi-resolution climate system component models, SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function, each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean-ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear shallow-water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multi-resolution method and the challenges ahead.

  16. Vulnerability of ecological systems to climatic effects of nuclear war

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors' analyses are based on a suite of approaches: physiological information, historical analogs, simulation and statistical analyses, and expert judgment. Because of the great complexity of ecosystems across the global landscape and the temporal and spatial complexity of potential nuclear-war induced climatic disturbances, it is not possible uniquely to characterize the effects on ecosystems. A biome approach has been chosen as an appropriate level for generalization of potential effects. Northern Hemisphere temperate terrestrial ecosystems, aquatic ecosystems, tropical ecosystems, and Southern Hemisphere extra-tropical ecosystems are addressed. The ecosystem discussions emphasize effects on the primary producers, in large part because those components are fundamental to the total ecosystem and are often especially vulnerable to the types of perturbations considered here. Estimates of effects on fauna are largely based on those mediated through changes in food supplies. Further study of effects on trophic structures and of indirect effects on species propagated through the complex interactions of ecosystems is required

  17. Integrating components of the earth system to model global climate changes: implications for the simulation of the climate of the next million years

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate system is complex because it is made up of several components (atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, continental surface, ice sheets), each of which has its own response time. The paleo-climate record provides ample evidence that these components interact nonlinearly with each other and also with global biogeochemical cycles, which drive greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere. Forecasting the evolution of future climate is therefore an extremely complex problem. In addition, since the nineteenth century, human activities are releasing great quantities of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, CFC, etc.) into the atmosphere. As a consequence, the atmospheric content of these gases has tremendously increased. As they have a strong greenhouse effect, their concentration is now large enough to perturb the natural evolution of the earth's climate. In this paper, we shall review the strategy which has been used to develop and validate tools that would allow to simulate the future long-term behaviour of the Earth's climate. This strategy rests on two complementary approaches: developing numerical models of the climate system and validating them by comparing their output with present-day meteorological data and paleo-climatic reconstructions. We shall then evaluate the methods available to simulate climate at the regional scale and the major uncertainties that must be solved to reasonable estimate the long-term evolution of a region, which would receive a geological repository for nuclear wastes. (author)

  18. Outcomes of the UN Climate Summit in Paris: Instability of Regional Systems and New Risks of Regional Development

    OpenAIRE

    Ковалев, Юрий Юрьевич

    2016-01-01

    The article discusses the environmental, socio-economic and political aspects of global climate change. The causes and consequences of global warming are assessed from the perspective of the theory of territorial systems. The features of global climate discourse are analyzed. Possible scenarios and risks of territorial development in various regions of the world are described. Some strategies to counter climate change are considered.Key words: Global climate change summit in Paris, instabilit...

  19. Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Inland Pacific Northwest Cereal Production Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eigenbrode, S. D.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Burke, I. C.; Capalbo, S.; Gessler, P.; Huggins, D. R.; Johnson-Maynard, J.; Kruger, C.; Lamb, B. K.; Machado, S.; Mote, P.; Painter, K.; Pan, W.; Petrie, S.; Paulitz, T. C.; Stockle, C.; Walden, V. P.; Wulfhorst, J. D.; Wolf, K. J.

    2011-12-01

    The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change and to help realize agriculture's potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include: - Develop and implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes, - Contribute to climate change mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), - Work closely with stakeholders and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, - Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. In this poster, we provide an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are underway since its inception in spring of 2011.

  20. The DSET Tool Library: A software approach to enable data exchange between climate system models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCormick, J. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Climate modeling is a computationally intensive process. Until recently computers were not powerful enough to perform the complex calculations required to simulate the earth`s climate. As a result standalone programs were created that represent components of the earth`s climate (e.g., Atmospheric Circulation Model). However, recent advances in computing, including massively parallel computing, make it possible to couple the components forming a complete earth climate simulation. The ability to couple different climate model components will significantly improve our ability to predict climate accurately and reliably. Historically each major component of the coupled earth simulation is a standalone program designed independently with different coordinate systems and data representations. In order for two component models to be coupled, the data of one model must be mapped to the coordinate system of the second model. The focus of this project is to provide a general tool to facilitate the mapping of data between simulation components, with an emphasis on using object-oriented programming techniques to provide polynomial interpolation, line and area weighting, and aggregation services.

  1. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.; Alexander, K.;

    2013-01-01

    , the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little......Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and...... continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20...

  2. Impacts and adaptation of European crop production systems to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olesen, Jørgen E; Trnka, M; Kersebaum, K C;

    2011-01-01

    increased incidents of heat waves and droughts without possibilities for effectively shifting crop cultivation to other parts of the years. A wide range of adaptation options exists in most European regions to mitigate many of the negative impacts of climate change on crop production in Europe. However...... the: (1) main vulnerabilities of crops and cropping systems under present climate; (2) estimates of climate change impacts on the production of nine selected crops; (3) possible adaptation options as well as (4) adaptation observed so far. In addition we focused on the overall awareness and presence...... questionnaires show a surprisingly high proportion of negative expectations concerning the impacts of climate change on crops and crop production throughout Europe, even in the cool temperate northern European countries. The expected impacts, both positive and negative, are just as large in northern Europe as in...

  3. Genetic Resources of Energy Crops: Biological Systems to Combat Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biological systems are expected to contribute to renewable energy production, help stabilize rising levels of green house gases (GHG), and mitigate the risk of global climate change (GCC). Bioenergy crop plants that function as solar energy collectors and thermo-chemical energy storage systems are t...

  4. Effects of climate change on coastal groundwater systems: A modeling study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, Gualbert; Van Baaren, Esther S.; De Louw, Perry G.B.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change in combination with increased anthropogenic activities will affect coastal groundwater systems throughout the world. In this paper, we focus on a coastal groundwater system that is already threatened by a relatively high seawater level: the low‐lying Dutch Delta. Nearly one third of t

  5. Collective behaviour of climate indices in the North Pacific air-sea system and its potential relationships with decadal climate changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Xiao-Juan; Zhi Rong; He Wen-Ping; Gong Zhi-Qiang

    2012-01-01

    A climate network of six climate indices of the North Pacific air-sea system is constructed during the period of 1948-2009.In order to find out the inherent relationship between the intrinsic mechanism of climate index network and the important climate shift,the synchronization behaviour and the coupling behaviour of these indices are investigated.Results indicate that climate network synchronization happened around the beginning of the 1960s,in the middle of the 1970s and at the beginnings of the 1990s and the 2000s separately.These synchronization states were always followed by the decrease of the coupling coefficient.Each synchronization of the network was well associated with the abrupt phase or trend changes of annually accumulated abnormal vaiues of North Pacific sea-surface temperature and 500-hPa height,among which the one that happened in the middle of the 1970s is the most noticeable climate shift.We can also obtain this mysterious shift from the first mode of the empirical orthogonal function of six indices.That is to say,abrupt climate shift in North Pacific air-sea system is not only shown by the phase or trend changes of climate indices,but also night be indicated by the synchronizing and the coupling of climate indices.Furthermore,at the turning point of 1975,there are also abrupt correlation changes in the yearly mode of spatial degree distribution of the sea surface temperature and 500-hPa height in the region of the North Pacific,which further proves the probability of climate index synchronization and coupling shift in air-sea systems.

  6. Spatial Vulnerability Map and Distributed Response Strategies for Irrigation System Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, P. H.; Tung, C. P.; Lien, W. Y.

    2012-04-01

    It is an important issue whether irrigation systems can continuously provide quality service under climate change conditions. The streamflow irrigation system, which delivers water from a river directly, is still widely applied in Taiwan. Due to the impacts of climate change, the amount of available streamflow may decrease during dry season and higher variation of flows can be expected, which influences irrigation systems severely. Furthermore, sub-irrigation areas may have different levels of impacts under climate change. Instead of applying the adaptation strategies to the whole irrigation areas, different adaptive measures should be considered according to the vulnerability of each sub-irrigation area in order to face the impacts of climate change. The purposes of this study include defining the carrying capacity of an irrigation system, developing spatial distributed assessment methods through geographic information system and discussing how to develop adaptation systems for the areas which are more vulnerable. In this study, both agricultural and domestic water supply systems of the Touchien creek watershed are considered in this study. Future water demands of agriculture are estimated under the change of temperature and rainfall, and the amount of water supply to each sub-irrigation area is calculated according to its area and water losses. As for public water uses, the most restrict scenarios are taken in, e.g. the largest impact toward agriculture in the Touchien creek watershed. Then, the vulnerability of sub-irrigation areas is quantified by agricultural shortage index (ASI). ASI represents the percentage of crop yields in that area comparing with its potential crop yields. At last, the spatial distribution of vulnerability is established in order to emphasize the climate change impacts on each sub-irrigation area and to analyze their possible responses. Possible distributed adaptive strategies are proposed in this study too. Keywords: Vulnerability

  7. Synergies in the Asian energy system: Climate change, energy security, energy access and air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We use the MESSAGE model to examine multiple dimensions of sustainable development for three Asian regions in a set of scenarios developed for the Asian Modelling Exercise. Using climate change mitigation as a starting point for the analysis, we focus on the interaction of climate and energy with technology choice, energy security, energy access, and air pollution, which often have higher policy priority than climate change. Stringent climate policies drive the future energy supply in Asia from being dominated by coal and oil to a more diversified system based mostly on natural gas, coal with CCS, nuclear and renewable energy. The increase in diversity helps to improve the energy security of individual countries and regions. Combining air pollution control policies and universal energy access policies with climate policy can further help to reduce both outdoor and indoor air pollution related health impacts. Investments into the energy system must double by 2030 to achieve stringent climate goals, but are largely offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution abatement. Strong focus on end-use efficiency also helps lowering overall total costs and allows for limiting or excluding supply side technologies from the mitigation portfolio. Costs of additional energy access policies and measures are a small fraction of total energy system costs. - Highlights: ► Half of added investments in energy offset by lower costs for O and M and air pollution. ► Costs for achieving universal energy access much smaller than energy system costs. ► Combined emissions and access policies further reduce air pollution impacts on health. ► Strong focus on end-use efficiency allows for more flexibility on energy sources. ► Stringent climate policy can improve energy security of Asian regions.

  8. Cognitive Structure of Climate Information System Actors:Using Causal Mapping Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Sharifzadeh

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Promoting sustainability, productivity, efficiency, and development of agricultural sector are the functions of utilization of appropriate information in terms of agricultural climate information system (ACIS. In this regard, the main question is that, to what extent does the ACIS lead to or provide the necessary context for agricultural development? This research aimed to employ causal mapping approach to investigate cognitive structure of human actors in a climate information system. This explorative qualitative research used case study methodology. This paper is an examination and reflection upon analysis of qualitative data reports, with particular attention to the process of interactively elicited causal maps based on focus group interviews. An exploratory coding approach was used to identify concepts that emerged from the interview transcripts. The relevant knowledge is gathered through the tacit understandings of climate information producers (2 groups, extensionists (6 groups, and users (7 groups in Fars province to reach to the point of redundancy. Investigating causal maps revealed that, actors perceived climate information system challenges as economic, information processing, socio-political, organizational, and technical challenges. The study provided some suggestions to reach to a responsive short term and sustainable long term climate information system in Fars province.

  9. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J; McCauley, Lisa A; Wiltermuth, Mark T

    2016-05-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet-dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems. PMID:27217947

  10. Gross nitrogen fluxes in intact beech-soil-microbe systems under experimentally simulated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedor, Javier; Bilela, Silvija; Gasche Gasche, Rainer; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Bimüller, Carolin; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Polle, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Rennenberg, Heinz; Dannenmann, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The vulnerability of beech forests of Central Europe to projected climate change conditions is a current matter of debate and concern. In order to investigate the response of N cycling in a typical beech forest to projected climate change conditions, we transplanted small lysimeters with intact beech-soil systems from a slope with N-exposure (representing present day climate conditions) to a slope with S exposure (serving as a warmer and drier model climate for future conditions). Lysimeters transfers within the N exposure served as control. After an equilibration period of 1 year, three isotope labeling/harvest cycles were performed: (1) comparison between N and S slopes under ambient conditions; (2) comparison between N and S slopes after intensified drought at S exposure; (3) rewetting after the drought period. Homogenous triple isotope labeling (15N/13C glutamine, 15NH4+, 15NO3-) in combination with 15N tracing and -pool dilution approaches as well as molecular analyses of nitrogen cycling genes and mycorrhiza morphotyping allowed to simultaneously quantify all N turnover processes in the intact beech-soil-microbe system. Nitrate was the major N source of beech seedlings with little importance of ammonium and no importance of glutamine. Experimental simulation of climate change resulted in significantly reduced gene copies of ammonia oxidizing bacteria in soil (AOB), a dramatic attenuation of microbial gross nitrate production from 252±83 mg N m-2 day-1 for the control treatment to 49±29 mg N m-2 day-1 for the climate change treatment and associated strong declines in soil nitrate concentrations as well as nitrate uptake by microorganisms and beech, which could not be compensated by uptake of ammonium or glutamine. Therefore, N content of beech seedlings was strongly reduced in the climate change treatment. Hence our data provide a microbial mechanism to explain nutritional limitations of beech under higher temperatures and drought and raise questions about

  11. A Bayesian approach for temporally scaling climate for modeling ecological systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post van der Burg, Max; Anteau, Michael J.; McCauley, Lisa A.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.

    2016-01-01

    With climate change becoming more of concern, many ecologists are including climate variables in their system and statistical models. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a drought index that has potential advantages in modeling ecological response variables, including a flexible computation of the index over different timescales. However, little development has been made in terms of the choice of timescale for SPEI. We developed a Bayesian modeling approach for estimating the timescale for SPEI and demonstrated its use in modeling wetland hydrologic dynamics in two different eras (i.e., historical [pre-1970] and contemporary [post-2003]). Our goal was to determine whether differences in climate between the two eras could explain changes in the amount of water in wetlands. Our results showed that wetland water surface areas tended to be larger in wetter conditions, but also changed less in response to climate fluctuations in the contemporary era. We also found that the average timescale parameter was greater in the historical period, compared with the contemporary period. We were not able to determine whether this shift in timescale was due to a change in the timing of wet–dry periods or whether it was due to changes in the way wetlands responded to climate. Our results suggest that perhaps some interaction between climate and hydrologic response may be at work, and further analysis is needed to determine which has a stronger influence. Despite this, we suggest that our modeling approach enabled us to estimate the relevant timescale for SPEI and make inferences from those estimates. Likewise, our approach provides a mechanism for using prior information with future data to assess whether these patterns may continue over time. We suggest that ecologists consider using temporally scalable climate indices in conjunction with Bayesian analysis for assessing the role of climate in ecological systems.

  12. Regional projections of climate change using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobie, S. R.; Murdock, T. Q.

    2011-12-01

    Earth system models of intermediate complexity have been generally employed in experiments studying global temperature changes, carbon-cycle responses and millennial-scale climate variability. Their reduced computational demands mean many different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios can be examined, including exploring thresholds of dangerous climate change and geo-engineering schemes. In response to requests from users for more information on regional climate change under both more optimistic and more pessimistic emissions scenarios than the range provided by SRES, EMICs are able to produce additional climate change projections relatively rapidly. However, as a result of their parameterizations and reduced complexity, EMICs have been generally avoided when examining sub-global spatial scales in favour of GCMs or RCMs. To investigate these concerns, we compare responses to changes in radiative forcing from both the University of Victoria Earth system climate model and an ensemble of CMIP3 global climate models at a variety of sub-global spatial scales. Temperature trends and anomalies from commonly used intervals in the 20th and 21st centuries (e.g. 1961-1990, 2046-2065) are evaluated for both model types under standard emissions scenarios. Results indicate that the UVIC model produces statistically similar regional temperature responses as those of the ensemble average of the IPCC AR4 global climate models. Precipitation anomalies display fewer statistical matches with rainfall increases underestimated and snowfall decreases overestimated by the UVIC model. The results suggest regional consequences of more varied emissions scenarios could be examined in certain cases using the UVIC model (and potentially other EMICs) instead of GCMs or RCMs. A selection of regional climate change responses comparing the UVIC model to the AR4 ensemble average will be presented for a variety of areas.

  13. Addressing Value and Belief Systems on Climate Literacy in the Southeastern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeal, K. S.

    2012-12-01

    The southeast (SEUS; AL, AR, GA, FL, KY, LA, NC, SC, TN, E. TX) faces the greatest impacts as a result of climate change of any region in the U.S. which presents considerable and costly adaptation challenges. Paradoxically, people in the SEUS hold attitudes and perceptions that are more dismissive of climate change than those of any other region. An additional mismatch exists between the manner in which climate science is generally communicated and the underlying core values and beliefs held by a large segment of people in the SEUS. As a result, people frequently misinterpret and/or distrust information sources, inhibiting efforts to productively discuss and consider climate change and related impacts on human and environmental systems, and possible solutions and outcomes. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project includes an extensive network of partners throughout the SEUS from faith, agriculture, culturally diverse, leisure, and K-20 educator communities that aim to address this educational need through a shared vision. CLiPSE has conducted a Climate Stewardship Survey (CSS) to determine the knowledge and perceptions of individuals in and beyond the CLiPSE network. The descriptive results of the CSS indicate that religion, predominantly Protestantism, plays a minor role in climate knowledge and perceptions. Likewise, political affiliation plays a minimal role in climate knowledge and perceptions between religions. However, when Protestants were broken out by political affiliation, statistically significant differences (t(30)=2.44, p=0.02) in knowledge related to the causes of climate change exist. Those Protestants affiliated with the Democratic Party (n=206) tended to maintain a statistically significant stronger knowledge of the causes of global climate change than their Republican counterparts. When SEUS educator (n=277) group was only considered, similar trends were evidenced, indicating that strongly held beliefs potentially

  14. Energy efficiency and economic reasonability of climatic systems based on vortex tube

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.U. Pleshkov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available At present ecology and energy efficiency issue is one of the main problems. Heat flow generation systems take one of the first positions in the list of the greatest energy consumption systems. This is heating and cooling of the rooms, freezing chambers etc. Climatic system of the refrigerating industrial complex is considered in article. Competitiveness of heating and cooling systems based on vortex tubes compared with chillers was shown.

  15. THE PROSPECTS OF AGRICULTURAL ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: CLIMATE-TECHNOLOGY INTERACTION IN RICE -WHEAT CROPPING SYSTEM IN NEPAL

    OpenAIRE

    Chhetri, Netra B.; Shrestha, Sundar S.

    2004-01-01

    We use panel data from Nepal to examine the effect of climate in inducing technology to understand potential agricultural adaptation to climate change in rice and wheat crops. We find different degree of climate-technology interaction in the productivity of two crops.

  16. Motivated recall in the service of the economic system: The case of anthropogenic climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennes, Erin P; Ruisch, Benjamin C; Feygina, Irina; Monteiro, Christopher A; Jost, John T

    2016-06-01

    The contemporary political landscape is characterized by numerous divisive issues. Unlike many other issues, however, much of the disagreement about climate change centers not on how best to take action to address the problem, but on whether the problem exists at all. Psychological studies indicate that, to the extent that sustainability initiatives are seen as threatening to the socioeconomic system, individuals may downplay environmental problems in order to defend and protect the status quo. In the current research, participants were presented with scientific information about climate change and later asked to recall details of what they had learned. Individuals who were experimentally induced (Study 1) or dispositionally inclined (Studies 2 and 3) to justify the economic system misremembered the evidence to be less serious, and this was associated with increased skepticism. However, when high system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in a recovery, they recalled climate change information to be more serious than did those assigned to a control condition. When low system justifiers were led to believe that the economy was in recession, they recalled the information to be less serious (Study 3). These findings suggest that because system justification can impact information processing, simply providing the public with scientific evidence may be insufficient to inspire action to mitigate climate change. However, linking environmental information to statements about the strength of the economic system may satiate system justification needs and break the psychological link between proenvironmental initiatives and economic risk. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27123575

  17. Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system

    OpenAIRE

    Lenton, Timothy M.; Myerscough, Richard J.; Marsh, Robert; Livina, Valerie N.; Price, Andrew R.; Cox, Simon J.

    2009-01-01

    We have used the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modelling framework to study the archetypal example of a tipping point in the climate system; a threshold for the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). eScience has been invaluable in this work and we explain how we have made it work for us. Two stable states of the THC have been found to coexist, under the same boundary conditions, in a hierarchy of models. The climate forcing required to collapse the THC and the revers...

  18. European Monitoring Systems and Data for Assessing Environmental and Climate Impacts on Human Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gordon L. Nichols

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Surveillance is critical to understanding the epidemiology and control of infectious diseases. The growing concern over climate and other drivers that may increase infectious disease threats to future generations has stimulated a review of the surveillance systems and environmental data sources that might be used to assess future health impacts from climate change in Europe. We present an overview of organizations, agencies and institutions that are responsible for infectious disease surveillance in Europe. We describe the surveillance systems, tracking tools, communication channels, information exchange and outputs in light of environmental and climatic drivers of infectious diseases. We discuss environmental and climatic data sets that lend themselves to epidemiological analysis. Many of the environmental data sets have a relatively uniform quality across EU Member States because they are based on satellite measurements or EU funded FP6 or FP7 projects with full EU coverage. Case-reporting systems for surveillance of infectious diseases should include clear and consistent case definitions and reporting formats that are geo-located at an appropriate resolution. This will allow linkage to environmental, social and climatic sources that will enable risk assessments, future threat evaluations, outbreak management and interventions to reduce disease burden.

  19. Micro-Climate Evaluation System in Thermal Mines

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    A fuzzy evaluation method was used to evaluate the microclimate in thermal mines. A theoretical model of a microclimate evaluation system was designed and membership functions of the evaluation indices in the system were established. An analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was used to analyze the weight of the evaluation indices and their methods of calculation. Software for this evaluation system was developed and used for the evaluation of the microclimate of 714 sections in a mine. It is shown that the evaluation results correspond completely with the actual situation. This evaluation system and the software can be applied in thermal mines.

  20. Extending Climate Analytics-As to the Earth System Grid Federation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamkin, G.; Schnase, J. L.; Duffy, D.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Li, J.; Strong, S.; Thompson, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    We are building three extensions to prior-funded work on climate analytics-as-a-service that will benefit the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) as it addresses the Big Data challenges of future climate research: (1) We are creating a cloud-based, high-performance Virtual Real-Time Analytics Testbed supporting a select set of climate variables from six major reanalysis data sets. This near real-time capability will enable advanced technologies like the Cloudera Impala-based Structured Query Language (SQL) query capabilities and Hadoop-based MapReduce analytics over native NetCDF files while providing a platform for community experimentation with emerging analytic technologies. (2) We are building a full-featured Reanalysis Ensemble Service comprising monthly means data from six reanalysis data sets. The service will provide a basic set of commonly used operations over the reanalysis collections. The operations will be made accessible through NASA's climate data analytics Web services and our client-side Climate Data Services (CDS) API. (3) We are establishing an Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) WPS-compliant Web service interface to our climate data analytics service that will enable greater interoperability with next-generation ESGF capabilities. The CDS API will be extended to accommodate the new WPS Web service endpoints as well as ESGF's Web service endpoints. These activities address some of the most important technical challenges for server-side analytics and support the research community's requirements for improved interoperability and improved access to reanalysis data.

  1. Towards a comprehensive system of methodological considerations for cities' climate targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate targets for cities abound. However, what these targets really imply is dependent on a number of decisions regarding system boundaries and methods of calculation. In order to understand and compare cities' climate targets, there is a need for a generic and comprehensive framework of key methodological considerations. This paper identifies eight key methodological considerations for the different choices that can be made when setting targets for GHG emissions in a city and arranges them in four categories: temporal scope of target, object for target setting, unit of target, and range of target. To explore how target setting is carried out in practice, the climate targets of eight European cities were analysed. The results showed that these targets cover only a limited part of what could be included. Moreover, the cities showed quite limited awareness of what is, or could be, include in the targets. This makes comparison and benchmarking between cities difficult. - Highlights: • Cities' climate targets are almost impossible to compare and benchmark. • There is a need for consistent protocols and frameworks supporting target setting. • A framework with key methodological considerations for cities' climate targets is identified. • The framework is used to explore the climate targets for eight European cities. • The difference between production- and consumption based accounting is illustrated in a new way

  2. Terrestrial biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system: from past to future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Arneth, A.; Harrison, S. P.; Zaehle, S.; Tsigaridis, K; Menon, S; Bartlein, P.J.; Feichter, J; Korhola, A; Kulmala, M; O' Donnell, D; Schurgers, G; Sorvari, S; Vesala, T

    2010-01-05

    The terrestrial biosphere plays a major role in the regulation of atmospheric composition, and hence climate, through multiple interlinked biogeochemical cycles (BGC). Ice-core and other palaeoenvironmental records show a fast response of vegetation cover and exchanges with the atmosphere to past climate change, although the phasing of these responses reflects spatial patterning and complex interactions between individual biospheric feedbacks. Modern observations show a similar responsiveness of terrestrial biogeochemical cycles to anthropogenically-forced climate changes and air pollution, with equally complex feedbacks. For future conditions, although carbon cycle-climate interactions have been a major focus, other BGC feedbacks could be as important in modulating climate changes. The additional radiative forcing from terrestrial BGC feedbacks other than those conventionally attributed to the carbon cycle is in the range of 0.6 to 1.6 Wm{sup -2}; all taken together we estimate a possible maximum of around 3 Wm{sup -2} towards the end of the 21st century. There are large uncertainties associated with these estimates but, given that the majority of BGC feedbacks result in a positive forcing because of the fundamental link between metabolic stimulation and increasing temperature, improved quantification of these feedbacks and their incorporation in earth system models is necessary in order to develop coherent plans to manage ecosystems for climate mitigation.

  3. Future illumination systems and the climate change challenge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bjarklev, Araceli; Bjarklev, Anders Overgaard

    2010-01-01

    LED technology will be part of the development, but hybrid illumination systems can also play an important role for the future illumination systems in the tertiary sector in the future. From the ecodesign perspective, the study points out that some of the major technological and economic challenges...... for the future....

  4. Using the Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) in U.S. EPA BASINS integrated modeling system to assess watershed vulnerability to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imhoff, J C; Kittle, J L; Gray, M R; Johnson, T E

    2007-01-01

    During the last century, much of the United States experienced warming temperatures and changes in amount and intensity of precipitation. Changes in future climate conditions present additional risk to water and watershed managers. The most recent release of U.S. EPA's BASINS watershed modeling system includes a Climate Assessment Tool (CAT) that provides new capabilities for assessing impacts of climate change on water resources. The BASINS CAT provides users with the ability to modify historical climate and conduct systematic sensitivity analyses of specific hydrologic and water quality endpoints to changes in climate using the BASINS models (Hydrologic Simulation Program - FORTRAN (HSPF)). These capabilities are well suited for addressing questions about the potential impacts of climate change on key hydrologic and water quality goals using the watershed scale at which most important planning decisions are made. This paper discusses the concepts that motivated the CAT development effort; the resulting capabilities incorporated into BASINS CAT; and the opportunities that result from integrating climate assessment capabilities into a comprehensive watershed water quality modeling system. PMID:17978432

  5. Load calculation and system evaluation for electric vehicle climate control

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aceves-Saborio, S.; Comfort, W.J. III

    1993-10-27

    Providing air conditioning for electric vehicles (EVs) represents an important challenge, because vapor compression air conditioners, which are common in gasoline powered vehicles, may consume a substantial part of the total energy stored in the EV battery. This report consists of two major parts. The first part is a cooling and heating load calculation for electric vehicles. The second part is an evaluation of several systems that can be used to provide the desired cooling and heating in EVs. Four cases are studied. Short range and full range EVs are each analyzed twice, first with the regular vehicle equipment, and then with a fan and heat reflecting windows, to reduce hot soak. Recent legislation has allowed the use of combustion heating whenever the ambient temperature drops below 5{degrees}C. This has simplified the problem of heating, and made cooling the most important problem. Therefore, systems described in this project are designed for cooling, and their applicability to heating at temperatures above 5{degrees}C is described. If the air conditioner systems cannot be used to cover the whole heating load at 5{degrees}C, then the vehicle requires a complementary heating system (most likely a heat recovery system or electric resistance heating). Air conditioners are ranked according to their overall weight. The overall weight is calculated by adding the system weight and the weight of the battery necessary to provide energy for system operation.

  6. 100% Renewable Energy Systems in Project Future Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mathiesen, Brian Vad

    2009-01-01

    , create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as health effects etc. are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100 per cent renewable energy systems will be technically possible in the future, and may even be economically beneficial compared to the...... energy system by the year 2050 are presented. Two short term transition target years in the process towards this goal are analysed for 2015 and 2030. The analyses reveal that implementing energy savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socioeconomic effects...... business-as-usual energy system. Hence the current debate between leaders should reflect a combination of these two main challenges....

  7. Simulation of the climate system performance of a museum in case of failure events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van Schijndel, A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.; Timmermans, W.J. [Eindhoven University of Technology, Department of Building and Architecture, Building Physics and Systems (BPS), VRT 6.29, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2010-10-15

    The paper presents the evaluation of the current HVAC components and indoor climate of a high tech Naval Depot when the system fails. The methodology of the research was: first, implementation of the heat, air and moisture models of the building and HVAC components. Second, validation of the models using measured data from the existing building control system. Third, simulation of the current and new HVAC systems designs. Fourth, discussion of the usability of the approach. For this specific case, we concluded that the current system design performs well if, in case of a fault, the air supply to the depots is switched off automatically. The construction of the depots has sufficient thermal inertia to maintain a stable indoor climate for a period long enough to allow it to be repaired. The design could be further improved by controlling the indoor climate surrounding the depots instead of inside the depots itself. In such a case, even if the system did not detect a fault and continued supplying uncontrolled air to the surroundings of the depot, the indoor climate in the depot would remain stable. We conclude that the approach presented in this paper has a wider application than this single case study. (author)

  8. Climate change induced transformations of agricultural systems: insights from a global model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change might impact crop yields considerably and anticipated transformations of agricultural systems are needed in the coming decades to sustain affordable food provision. However, decision-making on transformational shifts in agricultural systems is plagued by uncertainties concerning the nature and geography of climate change, its impacts, and adequate responses. Locking agricultural systems into inadequate transformations costly to adjust is a significant risk and this acts as an incentive to delay action. It is crucial to gain insight into how much transformation is required from agricultural systems, how robust such strategies are, and how we can defuse the associated challenge for decision-making. While implementing a definition related to large changes in resource use into a global impact assessment modelling framework, we find transformational adaptations to be required of agricultural systems in most regions by 2050s in order to cope with climate change. However, these transformations widely differ across climate change scenarios: uncertainties in large-scale development of irrigation span in all continents from 2030s on, and affect two-thirds of regions by 2050s. Meanwhile, significant but uncertain reduction of major agricultural areas affects the Northern Hemisphere’s temperate latitudes, while increases to non-agricultural zones could be large but uncertain in one-third of regions. To help reducing the associated challenge for decision-making, we propose a methodology exploring which, when, where and why transformations could be required and uncertain, by means of scenario analysis. (letter)

  9. Quantifying the Response Time of a Lake–Groundwater Interacting System to Climatic Perturbation

    OpenAIRE

    Yicheng Gong; Ganming Liu; Schwartz, Franklin W.

    2015-01-01

    Response time, describing how quickly a disturbed system would reach a new equilibrium, has been helpful to hydrogeologists in characterizing and understanding the hydrogeological systems. This study examined the complex response times associated with lake–groundwater perturbed by climate. Simulated hydraulic heads and lake stage values derived from a 3-D, MODFLOW-based model were used to calculate the response times for a closed, groundwater-fed lake system. Although obviously coupled, the r...

  10. Experimentation and Simulation of a Small-Scale Adsorption Cooling System in Temperate Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Sébastien; Hennaut, Samuel; Maas, Stefan; Andre, Philippe

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on the analysis of the operation of a solar cooling system based upon an adsorption chiller. The air-conditioned building studied is a laboratory located in a temperate climate region (Belgium). The monitoring reveals thermal and electrical coefficient of performance (COP) of the cooling system for different time scale (10s to 1 month). The whole system including solar collectors, adsorption machine, recooling unit and hot storage is simulated. The models are th...

  11. Climate Informatics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monteleoni, Claire; Schmidt, Gavin A.; Alexander, Francis J.; Niculescu-Mizil, Alexandru; Steinhaeuser, Karsten; Tippett, Michael; Banerjee, Arindam; Blumenthal, M. Benno; Ganguly, Auroop R.; Smerdon, Jason E.; Tedesco, Marco

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of present and potential future climate change will be one of the most important scientific and societal challenges in the 21st century. Given observed changes in temperature, sea ice, and sea level, improving our understanding of the climate system is an international priority. This system is characterized by complex phenomena that are imperfectly observed and even more imperfectly simulated. But with an ever-growing supply of climate data from satellites and environmental sensors, the magnitude of data and climate model output is beginning to overwhelm the relatively simple tools currently used to analyze them. A computational approach will therefore be indispensable for these analysis challenges. This chapter introduces the fledgling research discipline climate informatics: collaborations between climate scientists and machine learning researchers in order to bridge this gap between data and understanding. We hope that the study of climate informatics will accelerate discovery in answering pressing questions in climate science.

  12. Earth System Governance: Facing the Challenges of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana Camargo Vieira

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available YOUNG, Oran R. Institutional Dynamics: Emergent Patterns in International Environmental Governance. Cambridge (Massachusets, USA: The MIT Press, 2010. Earth System Governance Series. 225p. (Paperback; alkaline paper. ISBN 978-0-262-51440-8.

  13. An Integrated Control System for Heating and Indoor Climate Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahersima, Fatemeh

    2012-01-01

    Low temperature hydronic heating and cooling systems connected to renewable energy sources have gained more attention in the recent decades. This is due to the growing public awareness of the adverse environmental impacts of energy generation using fossil fuel. Radiant hydronic sub-floor heating...... pipes and radiator panels are two examples of such systems that have reputation of improving the quality of indoor thermal comfort compared to forced-air heating or cooling units. Specifically, a radiant water-based sub-floor heating system is usually combined with low temperature heat sources, among...... which geothermal heat pump, solar driven heat pumps and the other types are categorized as renewable or renewable energy sources. In the present study, we investigated modeling and control of hydronic heat emitters integrated with a ground-source heat pump. Optimization of the system performance...

  14. HVAC systems in a field laboratory for indoor climate study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fang, Lei; Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Olesen, Bjarne W.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents the design of a HVAC system for a field lab. The design integrated mixing ventilation, displacement ventilation, low impulse vertical ventilation, personalized ventilation, natural ventilation, hybrid ventilation, active chilled beams, radiant ceiling and floor, and heat...

  15. A bamboo braced frame system for tropical climates

    OpenAIRE

    Echeverria, J. (Juan); Sampson, C.; Vargas, J.; Nilsson, T; Gil-Martin, L. M.; Aschheim, M.

    2014-01-01

    A low-cost housing system was developed for use in tropical countries, specifically Haiti, with the aims of minimizing environmental impact (including carbon emissions), maximizing use of local and preferably recycled materials, and using local labor. The housing system integrates low-strength concrete blocks (made using recycled concrete aggregate), an innovative seismically-resistant bamboo frame, earthen plasters, bamboo trusses, and metal deck roofs. The bamboo frame relies on flexural yi...

  16. 100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vad Mathiesen, Brian; Lund, Henrik; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2011-01-01

    implementing energy savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socio-economic effects, create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as health effects are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100% Renewable energy...... systems will be technically possible in the future, and may even be economically beneficial compared to the business-as-usual energy system. Hence, the current debate between leaders should reflect a combination of these two main challenges....

  17. National climate policy implications of mitigating embodied energy system emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Scott, K.; Daly, H.; Barrett, J; Strachan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions require an almost complete transformation of the energy system to low carbon energy sources. Little consideration has been given to the potential adverse carbon consequences associated with the technology transition. This paper considers the embodied emissions that will occur to replace the UK’s fossil fuel-reliant energy supply with low carbon sources. The analysis generates a number of representative scenarios where emissions embodied in energy systems...

  18. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US$). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction. (letter)

  19. Livestock in a changing climate: production system transitions as an adaptation strategy for agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weindl, Isabelle; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander; Müller, Christoph; Havlík, Petr; Herrero, Mario; Schmitz, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne

    2015-09-01

    Livestock farming is the world’s largest land use sector and utilizes around 60% of the global biomass harvest. Over the coming decades, climate change will affect the natural resource base of livestock production, especially the productivity of rangeland and feed crops. Based on a comprehensive impact modeling chain, we assess implications of different climate projections for agricultural production costs and land use change and explore the effectiveness of livestock system transitions as an adaptation strategy. Simulated climate impacts on crop yields and rangeland productivity generate adaptation costs amounting to 3% of total agricultural production costs in 2045 (i.e. 145 billion US). Shifts in livestock production towards mixed crop-livestock systems represent a resource- and cost-efficient adaptation option, reducing agricultural adaptation costs to 0.3% of total production costs and simultaneously abating deforestation by about 76 million ha globally. The relatively positive climate impacts on grass yields compared with crop yields favor grazing systems inter alia in South Asia and North America. Incomplete transitions in production systems already have a strong adaptive and cost reducing effect: a 50% shift to mixed systems lowers agricultural adaptation costs to 0.8%. General responses of production costs to system transitions are robust across different global climate and crop models as well as regarding assumptions on CO2 fertilization, but simulated values show a large variation. In the face of these uncertainties, public policy support for transforming livestock production systems provides an important lever to improve agricultural resource management and lower adaptation costs, possibly even contributing to emission reduction.

  20. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  1. Reproductive responses to climatic heat induced by management systems in swamp buffaloes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climatic heat is one of the factors influencing the reproductive performance of swamp buffaloes. Any management system that imposes high climatic heat stress tends to reduce reproductive performance. Buffaloes grazing in an open hilly ranch system reached puberty later (at an age of 33 months) and at heavier body weight (365 kg) than animals raised in confinement (26 months and 289 kg). Physiological data (water metabolism and thyroid activity) indicated that grazing animals had to tolerate a higher heat load. High climatic temperatures were found to depress ovarian activity, especially during the dry season. The effect was observed only in cycling buffaloes denied wallow. Buffaloes having access to wallows were able to maintain their heat balance under various levels of heat load by adjusting their water requirements, mobilizing their body water and adjusting their metabolic rate (thyroid activity). It is concluded that stressful climatic temperatures can depress the reproductive performance of young heifers and adult swamp buffaloes, and that climatic heat stress directly depresses ovarian activity in swamp buffaloes. (author). 16 refs, 1 fig., 4 tabs

  2. 2014 Earth System Grid Federation and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools Conference Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-01-27

    The climate and weather data science community met December 9–11, 2014, in Livermore, California, for the fourth annual Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) Face-to-Face (F2F) Conference, hosted by the Department of Energy, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the European Infrastructure for the European Network of Earth System Modelling, and the Australian Department of Education. Both ESGF and UVCDATremain global collaborations committed to developing a new generation of open-source software infrastructure that provides distributed access and analysis to simulated and observed data from the climate and weather communities. The tools and infrastructure created under these international multi-agency collaborations are critical to understanding extreme weather conditions and long-term climate change. In addition, the F2F conference fosters a stronger climate and weather data science community and facilitates a stronger federated software infrastructure. The 2014 F2F conference detailed the progress of ESGF, UV-CDAT, and other community efforts over the year and sets new priorities and requirements for existing and impending national and international community projects, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six. Specifically discussed at the conference were project capabilities and enhancements needs for data distribution, analysis, visualization, hardware and network infrastructure, standards, and resources.

  3. Comparative Evaluation of Reflective and Refractive Optical Concentration Systems in Tropical Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulkarim Hamza El-Ladan

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Convergence of global economic inequalities and greenhouse emissions makes it imperative that fossil-fuel dependence be replaced by renewable energy revolution. Sunlight is the only truly free and abundant global energy resource capable of replacing fossil fuels. Historically, thermal and electrical forms of energy have been generated through Concentrated Solar Power (CSP systems. A major disadvantage of existing CSP systems lies in their long lead times, large start-up costs and integration with an advanced electricity transmission grid. Research work reported here is focused on evaluation of reflective and refractive optical concentration systems in tropical climate with the aim of developing small scale distributed electricity generation systems linked to micro grids. Evaluation of seven optical concentrators in reflection and refraction modes in tropical Malaysian climate has been carried out. The experimental methodology was based on measurement of temperature at the focal point of the optical systems as a function of time and solar irradiance. Highest temperatures achieved with reflective systems were in 200-300°C range, in contrast, Fresnel-lens based refractive systems approached temperatures in excess of ~1300°C. For the Fresnel lenses investigated, an approximate logarithmic temperature dependence on lens diameter was determined. For the Malaysian climate, sunlight to thermal energy conversion of refractive systems was determined to be significantly superior to reflective systems.

  4. Social Dimensions of Climate Change : Equity and Vulnerability in a Warming World

    OpenAIRE

    Mearns, Robin; Norton, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is widely acknowledged as foremost among the formidable challenges facing the international community in the 21st century. It poses challenges to fundamental elements of our understanding of appropriate goals for social and economic policy, such as the connection of prosperity, growth, equity, and sustainable development. This volume seeks to establish an agenda for research...

  5. Dynamics of the larch taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Ningning [Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi 464-8601 (Japan); Yasunari, Tetsuzo [Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601 (Japan); Ohta, Takeshi, E-mail: zhangningning@lasg.iap.ac.cn [Study Consortium for Earth-Life Interactive Systems (SELIS) of Nagoya University, Nagoya (Japan)

    2011-04-15

    Larch taiga, also known as Siberian boreal forest, plays an important role in global and regional water-energy-carbon (WEC) cycles and in the climate system. Recent in situ observations have suggested that larch-dominated taiga and permafrost behave as a coupled eco-climate system across a broad boreal zone of Siberia. However, neither field-based observations nor modeling experiments have clarified the synthesized dynamics of this system. Here, using a new dynamic vegetation model coupled with a permafrost model, we reveal the processes of interaction between the taiga and permafrost. The model demonstrates that under the present climate conditions in eastern Siberia, larch trees maintain permafrost by controlling the seasonal thawing of permafrost, which in turn maintains the taiga by providing sufficient water to the larch trees. The experiment without permafrost processes showed that larch would decrease in biomass and be replaced by a dominance of pine and other species that suffer drier hydroclimatic conditions. In the coupled system, fire not only plays a destructive role in the forest, but also, in some cases, preserves larch domination in forests. Climate warming sensitivity experiments show that this coupled system cannot be maintained under warming of about 2 deg. C or more. Under such conditions, a forest with typical boreal tree species (dark conifer and deciduous species) would become dominant, decoupled from the permafrost processes. This study thus suggests that future global warming could drastically alter the larch-dominated taiga-permafrost coupled system in Siberia, with associated changes of WEC processes and feedback to climate.

  6. Assessing Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Livelihood Systems: Conceptual Challenges and Interdisciplinary Solutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Sendzimir

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Over 40% of the earth's land surface are drylands that are home to approximately 2.5 billion people. Livelihood sustainability in drylands is threatened by a complex and interrelated range of social, economic, political, and environmental changes that present significant challenges to researchers, policy makers, and, above all, rural land users. Dynamic ecological and environmental change models suggest that climate change induced drought events may push dryland systems to cross biophysical thresholds, causing a long-term drop in agricultural productivity. Therefore, research is needed to explore how development strategies and other socioeconomic changes help livelihoods become more resilient and robust at a time of growing climatic risk and uncertainty. As a result, the overarching goal of this special feature is to conduct a structured comparison of how livelihood systems in different dryland regions are affected by drought, thereby making methodological, empirical, and theoretical contributions to our understanding of how these types of social-ecological systems may be vulnerable to climate change. In introducing these issues, the purpose of this editorial is to provide an overview of the two main intellectual challenges of this work, namely: (1 how to conceptualize vulnerability to climate change in coupled social-ecological systems; and (2 the methodological challenges of anticipating trends in vulnerability in dynamic environments.

  7. Performance of laying hens and economic viability of different climatization systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela F. Silva

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Since thermal environment affects production, egg quality and laying hens’ mortality rates, it is highly relevant to control the thermal environment within poultry houses so that the best financial profits could be obtained. Three commercial poultry houses with different climatization systems are analyzed in current research: a poultry house with tunnel-like ventilation and pad cooling; a poultry house with natural ventilation and nebulization; a poultry house with simple natural ventilation. Their thermal environment, production, egg quality and laying hens’ mortality rates among different poultry houses and at different areas of the same poultry house are compared. Economic profits based on difference in electric energy consumption by climatization systems and on the laying hens’ productivity of each poultry house are calculated. Electricity meters were installed within the electrical circuits of the climatization and light systems of the three poultry houses. Data were registered between December 2011 and March 2012 and results showed that all the poultry houses featured heterogeneity in internal thermal environment with faults in the climatization systems. Important differences were reported in egg production and quality caused by overheating. The poultry house with tunnel-like ventilation and pad cooling had the best thermal isolation from the external environment that resulted in a 12.04% improvement in production, decrease between 30 and 40% in laying hens’ mortality rates and the best economic result.

  8. Good Practice in Designing and Implementing National Monitoring Systems for Adaptation to Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naswa, Prakriti; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Bouroncle, Claudia; Medellín, Claudia; Imbach, Pablo; Louman, Bastiaan; Spensley, Jason

    In this report, we identify, analyse and compare international good practices in the design and implementation of national monitoring and evaluating indicator systems for climate change adaptation. This first chapter provides an introduction to the context and key terminology in the domain of...

  9. Effects of cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

  10. Climate Science: How Earth System Models are Reshaping the Science Policy Interface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex

    2015-01-01

    This talk is oriented at a general audience including the largest French utility company, and will describe the basics of climate change before moving into emissions scenarios and agricultural impacts that we can test with our earth system models and impacts models.

  11. Strengthening Social Protection Systems to Manage Disaster and Climate Risk in Asia and Pacific

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2015-01-01

    This report summarizes the knowledge shared and issues raised during a conference convened by the World Bank on the above topic held on November 3-5, 2014 in Manila, Philippines. Building on earlier conferences on this topic, the conference aimed to raise awareness about, and share good practice on, building a social protection system that integrates disaster risk management and climate change ...

  12. Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: A review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Willems, P.; Olsson, J.;

    2013-01-01

    A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of...

  13. High Performance Work System, HRD Climate and Organisational Performance: An Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muduli, Ashutosh

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to study the relationship between high-performance work system (HPWS) and organizational performance and to examine the role of human resource development (HRD) Climate in mediating the relationship between HPWS and the organizational performance in the context of the power sector of India. Design/methodology/approach: The…

  14. Building a Global Federation System for Climate Change Research: The Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ananthakrishnan, R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bernholdt, D. E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Bharathi, S. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States); Brown, D. [National Center Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Chen, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chervenak, A. L. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States); Cinquini, L. [National Center Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Drach, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, I. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Fox, P. [National Center Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Fraser, D. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Halliday, K. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Hankin, S. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Jones, P. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Kesselman, C. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States); Middleton, J. E. [National Center Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Schwidder, J. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Schweitzer, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Schuler, R. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States); Shoshani, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Siebenlist, F. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sim, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Strand, W. G. [National Center Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Wilhelmi, N. [National Center Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Su, M. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States); Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2007-07-13

    The recent release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report (AR4) has generated significant media attention. Much has been said about the U.S. role in this report, which included significant support from the Department of Energy through the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) and other Department of Energy (DOE) programs for climate model development and the production execution of simulations. The SciDAC-supported Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) also played a major role in the IPCC AR4: all of the simulation data that went into the report was made available to climate scientists worldwide exclusively via the ESG-CET. At the same time as the IPCC AR4 database was being developed, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), a leading U.S. climate science laboratory and a ESG participant, began publishing model runs from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM), and its predecessor the Parallel Coupled Model (PCM) through ESG. In aggregate, ESG-CET provides seamless access to over 250 terabytes of distributed climate simulation data to over 6,000 registered users worldwide, who have taken delivery of more than 280 terabytes from the archive. Not only does this represent a substantial advance in scientific knowledge, it is also a major step forward in how we conduct the research process on a global scale. Moving forward, the next IPCC assessment report, AR5, will demand multi-site metadata federation for data discovery and cross-domain identity management for single signon of users in a more diverse federation enterprise environment. Towards this aim, ESG is leading the effort in the climate community towards standardization of material for the global federation of metadata, security, and data services required to standardize, analyze, and access data worldwide.

  15. Long-term climate sensitivity of an integrated water supply system: The role of irrigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyennon, Nicolas; Romano, Emanuele; Portoghese, Ivan

    2016-09-15

    The assessment of the impact of long-term climate variability on water supply systems depends not only on possible variations of the resources availability, but also on the variation of the demand. In this framework, a robust estimation of direct (climate induced) and indirect (anthropogenically induced) effects of climate change is mandatory to design mitigation measures, especially in those regions of the planet where the groundwater equilibrium is strongly perturbed by exploitations for irrigation purposes. The main goal of this contribution is to propose a comprehensive model that integrates distributed crop water requirements with surface and groundwater mass balance, able to consider management rules of the water supply system. The proposed overall model, implemented, calibrated and validated for the case study of the Fortore water supply system (Apulia region, South Italy), permits to simulate the conjunctive use of the water from a surface artificial reservoir and from groundwater. The relative contributions of groundwater recharges and withdrawals to the aquifer stress have been evaluated under different climate perturbations, with emphasis on irrigation practices. Results point out that irrigated agriculture primarily affects groundwater discharge, indicating that ecosystem services connected to river base flow are particularly exposed to climate variation in irrigated areas. Moreover, findings show that the recharge both to surface and to groundwater is mainly affected by drier climate conditions, while hotter conditions have a major impact on the water demand. The non-linearity arising from combined drier and hotter conditions may exacerbate the aquifer stress by exposing it to massive sea-water intrusion. PMID:27161129

  16. Education and Climate Change--Some Systemic Connections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ainley, Patrick

    2008-01-01

    Unlike most papers on education and ecology, this one is not concerned with the content of education but its organisation as a system and hence its "purpose" or "finality". The central contention of the paper, which takes English education and training (or "learning") as a case in point, is that in a new market-state formation the pursuit of…

  17. Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mboera, Leonard E G; Mayala, Benjamin K; Kweka, Eliningaya J; Mazigo, Humphrey D

    2011-12-01

    Climate change (CC) has a number of immediate and long-term impacts on the fundamental determinants of human health. A number of potential human health effects have been associated either directly or indirectly with global climate change. Vulnerability to the risks associated with CC may exacerbate ongoing socio-economic challenges. The objective of this review was to analyse the potential risk and vulnerability in the context of climate-sensitive human diseases and health system in Tanzania. Climate sensitive vector- and waterborne diseases and other health related problems and the policies on climate adaptation in Tanzania during the past 50 years are reviewed. The review has shown that a number of climate-associated infectious disease epidemics have been reported in various areas of the country; mostly being associated with increase in precipitation and temperature. Although, there is no single policy document that specifically addresses issues of CC in the country, the National Environmental Management Act of 1997 recognizes the importance of CC and calls for the government to put up measures to address the phenomenon. A number of strategies and action plans related to CC are also in place. These include the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, the National Action Programme, and the National Bio-safety Framework. The government has put in place a National Climate Change Steering Committee and the National Climate Change Technical Committee to oversee and guide the implementation of CC activities in the country. Recognizing the adverse impacts of natural disasters and calamities, the government established a Disaster Management Division under the Prime Minister's Office. Epidemic Preparedness and Response Unit of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare is responsible for emergency preparedness, mostly disease outbreaks. However, specific climate changes associated with human health issues are poorly addressed in the MoHSW strategies and the national

  18. Climate and weather of the Sun-Earth system (CAWSES) highlights from a priority program

    CERN Document Server

    Lübken, Franz-Josef

    2012-01-01

    CAWSES (Climate and Weather of the Sun-Earth System) is the most important scientific program of SCOSTEP (Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics). CAWSES has triggered a scientific priority program within the German Research Foundation for a period of 6 years. Approximately 30 scientific institutes and 120 scientists were involved in Germany with strong links to international partners. The priority program focuses on solar influence on climate, atmospheric coupling processes, and space climatology. This book summarizes the most important results from this program covering some impor

  19. Enabling worldwide access to climate simulation data: the earth system grid (ESG)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With support from the U.S. Department of Energy's Scientific Discover Through Advanced Computing (SciDAC) program, we have developed and deployed the Earth System Grid (ESG) to make climate simulation data easily accessible to the global climate modelling and analysis community. ESG currently has 2500 registered users and manages 160 TB of data in archives distributed around the nation. From this past year alone, more than 200 scientific journal articles have been published from analyses of data delivered by the ESG

  20. Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies: Building a Global Infrastructure for Climate Change Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Ahrens, J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Ananthakrishnan, R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Bell, G. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Bharathi, S. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States). Information Science Institute; Brown, D. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Chen, M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chervenak, A. L. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States). Information Science Institute; Cinquini, L. [National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Pasadena, CA (United States); Drach, R. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foster, I. T. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Fox, P. [Rensselaer Polytechnic Inst., Troy, NY (United States); Hankin, S. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Harper, D. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Hook, N. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Jones, P. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Middleton, D. E. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Miller, R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Nienhouse, E. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Schweitzer, R. [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Schuler, R. [Univ. of Southern California, Marina del Ray, CA (United States). Information Science Institute; Shipman, G. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shoshani, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Siebenlist, F. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sim, A. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Strand, W. G. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Wang, F. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Wilcox, H. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States); Wilhelmi, N. [National Center for Atmospheric Reserch, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2010-08-16

    Established within DOE’s Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing (SciDAC-) 2 program, with support from ASCR and BER, the Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET) is a consortium of seven laboratories (Argonne National Laboratory [ANL], Los Alamos National Laboratory [LANL], Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [LBNL], Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory [LLNL], National Center for Atmospheric Research [NCAR], Oak Ridge National Laboratory [ORNL], and Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [PMEL]), and two institutes (Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute [RPI] and the University of Southern California, Information Sciences Institute [USC/ISI]). The consortium’s mission is to provide climate researchers worldwide with a science gateway to access data, information, models, analysis tools, and computational capabilities required to evaluate extreme-scale data sets. Its stated goals are to (1) make data more useful to climate researchers by developing collaborative technology that enhances data usability; (2) meet the specific needs that national and international climate projects have for distributed databases, data access, and data movement; (3) provide a universal and secure web-based data access portal for broad-based multi-model data collections; and (4) provide a wide range of climate data-analysis tools and diagnostic methods to international climate centers and U.S. government agencies. To this end, the ESG-CET is working to integrate all highly publicized climate data sets—from climate simulations to observations—using distributed storage management, remote high-performance units, high-bandwidth wide-area networks, and user desktop platforms in a collaborative problem-solving environment.

  1. Implementation of the Stochastic Multicloud Model in the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, B. B.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Khouider, B.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Majda, A.

    2015-12-01

    We present here the implementation of the stochastic multicloud model (SMCM) (khouider et al 2010) in the NCEP Climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2). The final goal of this effort is to improve the Indian Summer Monsoon weather and climate through better-organized tropical convection in CFSv2. The fidelity of CFSv2 in simulating the mean state of the global climate, particularly the Indian summer monsoon, relative to the CMIP5 models (Sabeer et al 2013) is the reason behind choosing CFSv2 as the GCM to implement SMCM. We expect to see an improved climate simulation in SMCM-CFSv2 because of the theoretically sound and tested design of the multicloud approach (Khouider and Majda 2006, and the relevant subsequent work thereafter). In order to implement SMCM in CFSv2, first we identify different climatic regions based on the mean state of the global climate (using the CFSR 20year monthly climatology). Then we initialize the climatological values (computed from the CFSR 20year monthly climatology) of the variables required in the multicloud parameterization scheme, for the different climatic zones. We input moisture, temperature and PBL height from the CFSv2 to the multicloud parameterization module and then compute the corresponding variables that were initialized from the mean state. Then we compute the deviation of those variables from the background state. Based on middle troposphere dryness, we compute the heating rates for the deep, congestus and stratiform convection from these deviations from the background (deterministic approach). The stochastic extension involves the evolution of the cloud area fractions, associated to each one of the three cloud types, which are represented by a stochastic lattice subgrid model whose random transitions depend on CAPE and large-scale tropospheric dryness. The stochastic model feedback, to the GCM dynamics, occurs through the modulation of the heating rates by the cloud area fractions.

  2. Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Eby

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there

  3. 100% Renewable energy systems, climate mitigation and economic growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vad Mathiesen, Brian; Lund, Henrik; Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard

    2011-01-01

    Greenhouse gas mitigation strategies are generally considered costly with world leaders often engaging in debate concerning the costs of mitigation and the distribution of these costs between different countries. In this paper, the analyses and results of the design of a 100% renewable energy...... implementing energy savings, renewable energy and more efficient conversion technologies can have positive socio-economic effects, create employment and potentially lead to large earnings on exports. If externalities such as health effects are included, even more benefits can be expected. 100% Renewable energy...... systems will be technically possible in the future, and may even be economically beneficial compared to the business-as-usual energy system. Hence, the current debate between leaders should reflect a combination of these two main challenges....

  4. Control of climatics environments to enhance reliability of electronics systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The techniques to control temperature and humidity to reduce failures in semiconductor devices are presented. The maximum operating junction temperature affects the electronic system reliability, and the equation for the junction temperature of the device shows that internal and external thermal resistances affect component life. Junction temperature reductions up to 60 C were achieved by the development of heat pipes for microcircuits, which will enhance electronics life by 32 times. Humidity control by improved sealing and use of heaters to prevent moisture condensation proved difficult and costly, and high pressure dehydrators were heavy and expensive. Therefore, low pressure dehydrator was developed which is smaller, lighter, and less expensive. The development of low pressure dehumidifying system including test data is presented

  5. Impact of climate change on operations and planning of Hydro-Quebec's generation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Studies that are underway at OURANOS indicate that some of the probable climate change scenarios in the coming years will have an effect on Quebec's watersheds hydrology and on temperatures. For Hydro-Quebec, who draws more than 95% of its generation from hydraulic resources and whose electricity loads depend pretty much on temperatures, such climate changes will definitely have a significant impact on many aspects of the planning and operations of its system. Our presentation will be divided into three parts. First, to bridge the gap between climate change scientists and water managers, we will present a list of the types of parameters needed from the scientists in order for the water managers to assess the impacts of climate changes on a hydroelectric system such as Hydro-Quebec's. These parameters will include changes in annual and seasonal distribution and variability of natural inflows and, most importantly, the timing of the changes in the coming years. The second part will focus on the types of adaptive decisions and strategies that will have to be taken ahead of time in order to implement the changes on a hydroelectric generation system such as Hydro-Quebec's. They will cover different areas such as generation planning, operations planning and optimization, refurbishment and replacement of infrastructures, dam safety, flood control and protection, maintenance planning and reliability. Finally, we will present more specific results of the impact of some climate change scenarios on Hydro-Quebec's overall generation system, showing differences between regions, and a case study on one of its river systems. (author)

  6. A NASA Climate Model Data Services (CDS) End-to-End System to Support Reanalysis Intercomparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carriere, L.; Potter, G. L.; McInerney, M.; Nadeau, D.; Shen, Y.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; Maxwell, T. P.; Huffer, E.

    2014-12-01

    The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) are collaborating to provide an end-to-end system for the comparative study of the major Reanalysis projects, currently, ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, and JMA JRA25. Components of the system include the full spectrum of Climate Model Data Services; Data, Compute Services, Data Services, Analytic Services and Knowledge Services. The Data includes standard Reanalysis model output, and will be expanded to include gridded observations, and gridded Innovations (O-A and O-F). The NCCS High Performance Science Cloud provides the compute environment (storage, servers, and network). Data Services are provided through an Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data node complete with Live Access Server (LAS), Web Map Service (WMS) and Ultrascale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT) for visualization, as well as a collaborative interface through the Earth System CoG. Analytic Services include UV-CDAT for analysis and MERRA/AS, accessed via the CDS API, for computation services, both part of the CDS Climate Analytics as a Service (CAaaS). Knowledge Services include access to an Ontology browser, ODISEES, for metadata search and data retrieval. The result is a system that provides the ability for both reanalysis scientists and those scientists in need of reanalysis output to identify the data of interest, compare, compute, visualize, and research without the need for transferring large volumes of data, performing time consuming format conversions, and writing code for frequently run computations and visualizations.

  7. Validation of an ensemble modelling system for climate projections for the northwest European shelf seas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, Jonathan; Lowe, Jason; Holt, Jason; Pardaens, Anne; Wiltshire, Andy

    2015-11-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a modelling system used to represent the northwest European shelf seas. Variants of the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model, HadCM3, were run under conditions of historically varying concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active constituents. The atmospheric simulation for the shelf sea region and its surrounds was downscaled to finer spatial scales using a regional climate model (HadRM3); these simulations were then used to drive a river routing scheme (TRIP). Together, these provide the atmospheric, oceanic and riverine boundary conditions to drive the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Additionally, a shelf seas simulation was driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis in place of HadCM3. We compared the modelling systems output against a sea surface temperature satellite analysis product, a quality controlled ocean profile dataset and values of volume transport through particular ocean sections from the literature. In addition to assessing model drift with a pre-industrial control simulation the modelling system was evaluated against observations and the reanalysis driven simulation. We concluded that the modelling system provided an excellent (good) representation of the spatial patterns of temperature (salinity). It provided a good representation of the mean temperature climate, and a sufficient representation of the mean salinity and water column structure climate. The representation of the interannual variability was sufficient, while the overall shelf-wide circulation was qualitatively good. From this wide range of metrics we judged the modelling system fit for the purpose of providing centennial climate projections for the northwest European shelf seas.

  8. Allocating greenhouse gas emissions in the German federal system: Regional interests and federal climate governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The academic debate on climate policies often portrays Germany as one of the most successful cases. Despite its federal system of joint decision-making, most studies of German climate policy focus primarily upon activities at the national level while disregarding the heterogeneous economic interests and veto options of the Länder. Using the cases on renewable energy policy and emission trading, we analyze the subnational interests and institutional mechanisms that shape the intergovernmental negotiations and policy outcomes within the federated system. The cases confirm assumptions made by general research on German federalism, according to which strategies for the externalization and compensation of costs are of particular importance for redistributive policies, and the EU plays a major role in dissolving potential barriers to the process of federal policy formation. Contrary to the reservations often expressed, we demonstrate that climate policies have led to an increased economic and political competition between the Länder and have supported effective solutions. However, recent shortfalls in the effectiveness of emission trading and in the cost-efficiency of renewable energy policies indicate that redistributive conflicts in the allocation of greenhouse gas emissions have to be addressed more systematically within the German (and the European) system(s) of joint decision-making. - Highlights: • Profound study of renewable energy policy and emission trading in Germany. • Study of joint-decision making in climate policy in the German federal system. • Intergovernmental conflicts and agreements in allocating GHG emissions. • Policy outcomes, potentials and restrictions of federal climate governance

  9. An Integrated Control System for Heating and Indoor Climate Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Tahersima, Fatemeh

    2012-01-01

    In the present study, we investigated modeling and control of hydronic heat emitters integrated with a ground-source heat pump. Optimization of the system performance in terms of energy efficiency, associated energy cost and occupants' thermal comfort is the main objective to be fulfilled via de-sign of an integrated controller. We also proposed control strategies to manage energy consumption of the building to turn domestic heat demands into a flexible load in the smart electricity grid. We ...

  10. Sensitivity of marine systems to climate and fishing: Concepts, issues and management responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perry, Ian; Cury, Philippe; Brander, Keith;

    2010-01-01

    but will be manifest as the accumulation of the interactions between fishing and climate variability — unless threshold limits are exceeded. Marine resource managers need to develop approaches which maintain the resilience of individuals, populations, communities and ecosystems to the combined and interacting effects......Modern fisheries research and management must understand and take account of the interactions between climate and fishing, rather than try to disentangle their effects and address each separately. These interactions are significant drivers of change in exploited marine systems and have...... classes, spatial contraction, loss of sub-units, and alteration of life history traits in populations, making them more sensitive to climate variability at interannual to interdecadal scales. Fishing reduces the mean size of individuals and mean trophic level of communities, decreasing their turnover time...

  11. The response of high-impact blocking weather systems to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Daniel; Parker, Tess; Woollings, Tim; Harvey, Benjamin; Shaffrey, Len

    2016-07-01

    Midlatitude weather and climate are dominated by the jet streams and associated eastward moving storm systems. Occasionally, however, these are blocked by persistent anticyclonic regimes known as blocking. Climate models generally predict a small decline in blocking frequency under anthropogenic climate change. However, confidence in these predictions is undermined by, among other things, a lack of understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying the change. Here we analyze blocking (mostly in the Euro-Atlantic sector) in a set of sensitivity experiments to determine the effect of different parts of the surface global warming pattern. We also analyze projected changes in the impacts of blocking such as temperature extremes. The results show that enhanced warming both in the tropics and over the Arctic act to strengthen the projected decline in blocking. The tropical changes are more important for the uncertainty in projected blocking changes, though the Arctic also affects the temperature anomalies during blocking.

  12. Modelling sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for radioactive waste disposal. Project BIOCLIM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The BIOCLIM project (Modelling Sequential Biosphere systems under Climate change for Radioactive Waste Disposal) is part of the EURATOM fifth European framework programme. The project was launched in October 2000 for a three-year period. It is coordinated by ANDRA, the French national radioactive waste management agency. The project brings together a number of European radioactive waste management organisations that have national responsibilities for the safe disposal of radioactive wastes, and several highly experienced climate research teams. Waste management organisations involved are: NIREX (UK), GRS (Germany), ENRESA (Spain), NRI (Czech Republic) and ANDRA (France). Climate research teams involved are: LSCE (CEA/CNRS, France), CIEMAT (Spain), UPMETSIMM (Spain), UCL/ASTR (Belgium) and CRU (UEA, UK). The Environmental Agency for England and Wales provides a regulatory perspective. The consulting company Enviros Consulting (UK) assists ANDRA by contributing to both the administrative and scientific aspects of the project. This paper describes the project and progress to date. (authors)

  13. Rconfigurable adaptive fuzzy fault-hiding control for greenhouse climate control system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hameed, Ibrahim; El-Madbouly, E I; Abdo, M I

    2016-01-01

    Modern greenhouses are equipped with different components for providing a comfortable climate for plant growth. A component malfunction may result in loss of production. Therefore, it is desirable to design a control system, which is stable, and is able to provide an acceptable degraded performance...... even in the faulty case. In this paper, an active fault tolerant control scheme to compensate for actuator and/or sensor faults in the greenhouse climate system is designed. The control system consists of a sensitive and reliable Fault Detection and Diagnosis (FDD) mechanism for different types of...... faults in presence of system disturbances and a robust reconfigurable control design based on fault-hiding principal in which the fault is hidden from the nominal controller and the fault effects are compensated. In this approach, a set of virtual actuators and virtual sensors are used to guarantee the...

  14. Insurance systems in times of climate change. Insurance of buildings against natural hazards

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quinto, Cornel

    2012-07-01

    Natural disasters such as large-scale flooding are on the increase. Climate change directly affects our basis of existence. This includes residential buildings, and commercial and industrial properties. The author highlights the requirements that will have to be met by a protection system for buildings in the future. Insurance against natural hazards lies at the heart of such a system. The insurance systems of Germany, France, Spain, Switzerland and the USA are presented. The author explains what type of insurance system is best suited to meet the challenge of climate change. The starting point of the legal section is statutory insurance with a monopoly. The question of whether such insurance is compatible with Swiss and EU law is examined. Keywords in this respect are economic freedom, competition, services of general interest and universal service. (orig.)

  15. Insulated Concrete Form Walls Integrated With Mechanical Systems in a Cold Climate Test House

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, D. [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Wiehagen, J. [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States)

    2014-09-01

    Transitioning from standard light frame to a thermal mass wall system in a high performance home will require a higher level of design integration with the mechanical systems. The much higher mass in the ICF wall influences heat transfer through the wall and affects how the heating and cooling system responds to changing outdoor conditions. This is even more important for efficient, low-load homes with efficient heat pump systems in colder climates where the heating and cooling peak loads are significantly different from standard construction. This report analyzes a range of design features and component performance estimates in an effort to select practical, cost-effective solutions for high performance homes in a cold climate.

  16. Climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System: a numerical study using GCM downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro Pires, Ana; Nolasco, Rita; Rocha, Alfredo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Dubert, Jesus

    2016-07-01

    The present work aims at evaluating the impacts of a climate change scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the Iberian Upwelling System. Using regional ocean model configurations, the study domain is forced with three different sets of surface fields: a climatological dataset to provide the control run; a dataset obtained from averaging several global climate models (GCM) that integrate the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) models used in climate scenarios, for the same period as the climatological dataset; and this same dataset but for a future period, retrieved from the IPCC A2 climate scenario. After ascertaining that the ocean run forced with the GCM dataset for the present compared reasonably well with the climatologically forced run, the results for the future run (relative to the respective present run) show a general temperature increase (from +0.5 to +3 °C) and salinity decrease (from -0.1 to -0.3), particularly in the upper 100-200 m, although these differences depend strongly on season and distance to the coast. There is also strengthening of the SST cross-shore gradient associated to upwelling, which causes narrowing and shallowing of the upwelling jet. This effect is contrary to the meridional wind stress intensification that is also observed, which would tend to strengthen the upwelling jet.

  17. Climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System: a numerical study using GCM downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro Pires, Ana; Nolasco, Rita; Rocha, Alfredo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Dubert, Jesus

    2015-10-01

    The present work aims at evaluating the impacts of a climate change scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the Iberian Upwelling System. Using regional ocean model configurations, the study domain is forced with three different sets of surface fields: a climatological dataset to provide the control run; a dataset obtained from averaging several global climate models (GCM) that integrate the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) models used in climate scenarios, for the same period as the climatological dataset; and this same dataset but for a future period, retrieved from the IPCC A2 climate scenario. After ascertaining that the ocean run forced with the GCM dataset for the present compared reasonably well with the climatologically forced run, the results for the future run (relative to the respective present run) show a general temperature increase (from +0.5 to +3 °C) and salinity decrease (from -0.1 to -0.3), particularly in the upper 100-200 m, although these differences depend strongly on season and distance to the coast. There is also strengthening of the SST cross-shore gradient associated to upwelling, which causes narrowing and shallowing of the upwelling jet. This effect is contrary to the meridional wind stress intensification that is also observed, which would tend to strengthen the upwelling jet.

  18. Multivariate and multiscale dependence in the global climate system revealed through complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steinhaeuser, Karsten [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Geographic Information Science and Technology Group, Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); University of Notre Dame, Department of Computer Science and Engineering and Interdisciplinary Center for Network Science and Applications, Notre Dame, IN (United States); Ganguly, Auroop R. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Geographic Information Science and Technology Group, Computational Sciences and Engineering Division, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); University of Tennessee at Knoxville, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Knoxville, TN (United States); Chawla, Nitesh V. [University of Notre Dame, Department of Computer Science and Engineering and Interdisciplinary Center for Network Science and Applications, Notre Dame, IN (United States)

    2012-08-15

    A systematic characterization of multivariate dependence at multiple spatio-temporal scales is critical to understanding climate system dynamics and improving predictive ability from models and data. However, dependence structures in climate are complex due to nonlinear dynamical generating processes, long-range spatial and long-memory temporal relationships, as well as low-frequency variability. Here we utilize complex networks to explore dependence in climate data. Specifically, networks constructed from reanalysis-based atmospheric variables over oceans and partitioned with community detection methods demonstrate the potential to capture regional and global dependence structures within and among climate variables. Proximity-based dependence as well as long-range spatial relationships are examined along with their evolution over time, yielding new insights on ocean meteorology. The tools are implicitly validated by confirming conceptual understanding about aggregate correlations and teleconnections. Our results also suggest a close similarity of observed dependence patterns in relative humidity and horizontal wind speed over oceans. In addition, updraft velocity, which relates to convective activity over the oceans, exhibits short spatiotemporal decorrelation scales but long-range dependence over time. The multivariate and multi-scale dependence patterns broadly persist over multiple time windows. Our findings motivate further investigations of dependence structures among observations, reanalysis and model-simulated data to enhance process understanding, assess model reliability and improve regional climate predictions. (orig.)

  19. Effects of climate change on the mobilization of diffuse substances from agricultural systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, C. J. A.; Fallon, P. D.; Evans, R.; Haygarth, P. M.

    2009-04-01

    Changes in the climate of temperate regions are likely to lead to increased losses of diffuse substances transferred from agricultural land to surface and ground waters e.g. sediment, carbon, nitrogen, pathogens and phosphorus. As part of a UK based science-policy initiative Integrating Water and Agricultural Management (IWAM) we have developed a framework for assessing climate change impacts on the mobilization of diffuse substances from UK agricultural land. We have reviewed the literature and provided an expert assessment of the influence of predicted changes in temperature and precipitation on detachment and solubilisation processes. We have chosen three model farm systems (MFSs; arable, lowland dairy and upland sheep). In our assessment we have found that lowland dairy is potentially the most sensitive to the predicted climate changes (2020). The projected increase in winter precipitation and all year round rainfall intensity are likely to be the largest climatic drivers for significant increases in detachment and solubilisation. An important part of our assessment was to identify the scientific gaps and uncertainties around climate change and diffuse substance mobilization and to facilitate improved recommendations for policies related to sustainable land and water management.

  20. Impact of climate change on operations and planning of Hydro-Quebec's generation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hydraulic resources currently account for more than 95 per cent of Hydro-Quebec's generation capacity. Hydro-Quebec also plans to purchase more wind power in the future. However, the utility wind and hydroelectric resources will be affected by climatic change in the future. This paper outlined research needed by hydroelectric and water resource managers in order to accurately determine the impacts of climatic change. Parameters included changes in annual and seasonal distribution as well as changes in the variability of natural inflows. The research will be used to determine the configuration of new projects as well as the refurbishment and replacement of existing infrastructure. Load profiles for the future indicate that electricity use will change, with less heating needed in winter, and more air conditioning required in summer months. The Delta method was used to determine impacts of future inflows and hydrological regimes. A case study of climate change impacts and management strategies for the Outardes River system up to the year 2050 was presented. The study showed that higher inflows are expected to produce more energy. Maintenance planning and flood control techniques were also discussed. The study showed that the effects of climate change on each of Hydro-Quebec's systems is expected to follow a similar pattern to the Outardes system. tabs., figs

  1. Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

    2008-12-01

    Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

  2. High-efficiency climate control systems with a heat and cold storage unit for electric vehicles

    OpenAIRE

    Nasri, Mounir

    2016-01-01

    Range reduction caused by climate control is a barrier to widespread adoption of electric vehicles (EV). Higher efficiency and lower energy consumption by the air conditioning system will mitigate this disadvantage, as power consumption inside electric vehicles is a very relevant issue. Moreover, several European Union directives prohibit the use of HFC 134a or any other fluorinated greenhouse gas with a Global Warming Potential (GWP) higher than 150 in new mobile air conditioning systems ...

  3. Parametric sensibility study of an indirect evaporation passive cooling system in hot and humid climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almao, N.; Dopazo, J.; Rincon, J. [University of Zulia (Venezuela). Mechanical Engineering School; Gonzalez, E. [University of Zulia (Venezuela). Architecture Research Institute

    2000-07-01

    A numerical parametric study of an indirect evaporation passive cooling system (IEPCS) to obtain the design characteristics that will guarantee its best performance under hot and humid climate conditions is presented. This IEPCS will be part of a bioclimatic house prototype to be built in Maracaibo, Venezuela. Water thickness and air velocity over the water were selected as parameters affecting the system performance. Numerical simulations have been carried out using a two-dimensional CFD code. (author)

  4. Modeling European ruminant production systems: Facing the challenges of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kipling, Richard P.; Bannink, André; Bellocchi, Gianni; Dalgaard, Tommy; Naomi J Fox; Hutchings, Nicholas J.; Kjeldsen, Chris; Lacetera, Nicola; Sinabell, Franz; Topp, Cairistiona F.E.; Oijen, Marcel van; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Nigel D Scollan

    2016-01-01

    Ruminant production systems are important producers of food, support rural communities and culture, and help to maintain a range of ecosystem services including the sequestering of carbon in grassland soils. However, these systems also contribute significantly to climate change through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, while intensification of production has driven biodiversity and nutrient loss, and soil degradation. Modeling can offer insights into the complexity underlying the relationshi...

  5. Desert dust and anthropogenic aerosol interactions in the Community Climate System Model coupled-carbon-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Mahowald

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition.

  6. Adapting to climate change in the mixed crop and livestock farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K.; Herrero, Mario

    2015-09-01

    Mixed crop-livestock systems are the backbone of African agriculture, providing food security and livelihood options for hundreds of millions of people. Much is known about the impacts of climate change on the crop enterprises in the mixed systems, and some, although less, on the livestock enterprises. The interactions between crops and livestock can be managed to contribute to environmentally sustainable intensification, diversification and risk management. There is relatively little information on how these interactions may be affected by changes in climate and climate variability. This is a serious gap, because these interactions may offer some buffering capacity to help smallholders adapt to climate change.

  7. Climate Model Evaluation using New Datasets from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R.

    2008-01-01

    There are some in the science community who believe that the response of the climate system to anthropogenic radiative forcing is unpredictable and we should therefore call off the quest . The key limitation in climate predictability is associated with cloud feedback. Narrowing the uncertainty in cloud feedback (and therefore climate sensitivity) requires optimal use of the best available observations to evaluate and improve climate model processes and constrain climate model simulations over longer time scales. The Clouds and the Earth s Radiant Energy System (CERES) is a satellite-based program that provides global cloud, aerosol and radiative flux observations for improving our understanding of cloud-aerosol-radiation feedbacks in the Earth s climate system. CERES is the successor to the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE), which has widely been used to evaluate climate models both at short time scales (e.g., process studies) and at decadal time scales. A CERES instrument flew on the TRMM satellite and captured the dramatic 1998 El Nino, and four other CERES instruments are currently flying aboard the Terra and Aqua platforms. Plans are underway to fly the remaining copy of CERES on the upcoming NPP spacecraft (mid-2010 launch date). Every aspect of CERES represents a significant improvement over ERBE. While both CERES and ERBE measure broadband radiation, CERES calibration is a factor of 2 better than ERBE. In order to improve the characterization of clouds and aerosols within a CERES footprint, we use coincident higher-resolution imager observations (VIRS, MODIS or VIIRS) to provide a consistent cloud-aerosol-radiation dataset at climate accuracy. Improved radiative fluxes are obtained by using new CERES-derived Angular Distribution Models (ADMs) for converting measured radiances to fluxes. CERES radiative fluxes are a factor of 2 more accurate than ERBE overall, but the improvement by cloud type and at high latitudes can be as high as a factor of 5

  8. Interdisciplinary MSc and Doctoral Education in Climate System Science at the University of Hamburg

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dilly, Oliver; Stammer, Detlef; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

    2010-05-01

    Modern education in climate system sciences is based on a number of disciplines such as meteorology, geophysics, oceanography, geosciences and also economics and social sciences. Facts across these disciplines are required to address the faced key issues related to climate change effectively. Climate experts need to have profound knowledge that can only be achieved in interdisciplinary MSc and PhD programs. In Europe, graduate students who completed a BSc degree are typically proceeding with MSc programs to increase knowledge and qualification. Afterwards, the participation in a doctoral program may follow. Many doctoral programs include courses supporting disciplinary methodological and scientific background in particular. Those courses derive either from advanced MSc programs or specific trainings. Typically, interdisciplinary exchange is difficult to achieve at any stage of disciplinary graduate programs. Recent developments showed the need to educate climate experts in interdisciplinary MSc programs in climate system sciences for both researchers and professionals outside the university. The University of Hamburg offers an interdisciplinary 2-yr MSc program in Integrated System Sciences with 120 ECTS (30 compulsory, 90 eligible) in English language. If the MSc student decides to proceed with a PhD thesis, he/she may not necessarily complete the MSc program but may start to work on a specific and disciplinary doctoral thesis for 3 years. Each doctoral student is guided by an advisory panel (AP) which meets at least bi-annually. The AP consists of a Principal Advisor, a Co-Advisor and a Chair of the panel who come from neighboring disciplines. The structured doctoral program with only 12 CPs includes interdisciplinary compulsory courses and tailor-made eligible expert courses. Summer schools and soft skill courses add to both MSc and doctoral programs. Accordingly, the new graduate school concepts in climate system sciences at the University of Hamburg supports

  9. Climate change effects on high-elevation hydropower system in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madani Larijani, Kaveh

    The high-elevation hydropower system in California, composed of more than 150 hydropower plants and regulated by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), supplies 74 percent of in-state hydropower. The system has modest reservoir capacities and has been designed to take advantage of snowpack. The expected shift of runoff peak from spring to winter as a result of climate warming, resulting in snowpack reduction and earlier snowmelt, might have important effects on hydropower operations. Estimation of climate warming effects on such a large system by conventional simulation or optimization methods would be tedious and expensive. This dissertation presents a novel approach for modeling large hydropower systems. Conservation of energy and energy flows are used as the basis for modeling high-elevation high-head hydropower systems in California. The unusual energy basis for reservoir modeling allows for development of hydropower operations models to estimate large-scale system behavior without the expense and time needed to develop traditional streamflow and reservoir volume-based models in absence of storage and release capacity, penstock head, and efficiency information. An Energy-Based Hydropower Optimization Model (EBHOM) is developed to facilitate a practical climate change study based on the historical generation data high-elevation hydropower plants in California. Employing recent historical hourly energy prices, energy generation in California is explored for three climate warming scenarios (dry warming, wet warming, and warming-only) over 14 years, representing a range of hydrologic conditions. Currently, the high-elevation hydropower plants in California have to renew their FERC licenses. A method based on cooperative game theory is developed to explore FERC relicensing process, in which dam owners negotiate over the available instream water with other interest groups downstream. It is discussed how the lack of incentive for cooperation results in long

  10. Insulated Concrete Form Walls Integrated With Mechanical Systems in a Cold Climate Test House

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, D.; Wiehagen, J.

    2014-09-01

    Transitioning from standard light frame to a thermal mass wall system in a high performance home will require a higher level of design integration with the mechanical systems. The much higher mass in the ICF wall influences heat transfer through the wall and affects how the heating and cooling system responds to changing outdoor conditions. This is even more important for efficient, low-load homes with efficient heat pump systems in colder climates where the heating and cooling peak loads are significantly different from standard construction. This report analyzes a range of design features and component performance estimates in an effort to select practical, cost-effective solutions for high performance homes in a cold climate. Of primary interest is the influence of the ICF walls on developing an effective air sealing strategy and selecting an appropriate heating and cooling equipment type and capacity. The domestic water heating system is analyzed for costs and savings to investigate options for higher efficiency electric water heating. A method to ensure mechanical ventilation air flows is examined. The final solution package includes high-R mass walls, very low infiltration rates, multi-stage heat pump heating, solar thermal domestic hot water system, and energy recovery ventilation. This solution package can be used for homes to exceed 2012 International Energy Conservation Code requirements throughout all climate zones and achieves the DOE Challenge Home certification.

  11. A bamboo braced frame system for tropical climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Echeverria, J.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available A low-cost housing system was developed for use in tropical countries, specifically Haiti, with the aims of minimizing environmental impact (including carbon emissions, maximizing use of local and preferably recycled materials, and using local labor. The housing system integrates low-strength concrete blocks (made using recycled concrete aggregate, an innovative seismically-resistant bamboo frame, earthen plasters, bamboo trusses, and metal deck roofs. The bamboo frame relies on flexural yielding of a short rebar dowel to provide ductile performance at a controlled strength level. The plinth walls below the frame and short rebar dowel protects the bamboo from moisture. The top of a plastic soda bottle is used to protect the rebar from moisture and to seal the base of the bamboo culm, allowing mortar to be introduced into the culm above. This paper focuses on the experimental and analytical results of the flexural yielding of the rebar dowel to establish the structural design of this critical component of the system for resisting wind and seismic loads.En este artículo se presenta un sistema de construcción de viviendas de bajo coste para países tropicales en los cuales existe riesgo sísmico. Los objetivos de este trabajo son generar bajo impacto medioambiental (incluyendo las emisiones de carbono, empleo de materiales locales, preferiblemente reciclados, y mano de obra local. Para esta construcción se han empleado bloques de hormigón de baja resistencia (con agregado reciclado junto con un innovador sistema de pórticos de bambú, botellas de plástico, vigas de bambú y cubiertas de chapa. El comportamiento dúctil de la estructura se garantiza introduciendo una barra de acero en la base del pórtico de bambú. Para proteger el bambú de la humedad, el pórtico se monta sobre un zócalo. Los resultados experimentales y analíticos obtenidos se utilizan para el diseño estructural del sistema frente a cargas de viento y sísmicas.

  12. Energy systems and climate change: Approaches to formulating responses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A method is presented for computing the direct and indirect radiative forcings of emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane and comparing them in terms of their carbon-equivalent radiative forcing potential as a common unit. Examples illustrate application of the method in comparisons of the carbon-equivalent emissions from coal-, oil- and natural gas-based electricity and combined heat and power production assuming near-, medium- and long-term perspectives. The second article provides a systematic approach to calculating the net cost of avoiding greenhouse-gas emissions by adopting individual supply- and demand-side fuel switching and energy efficiency measures instead of proceeding down business as usual energy paths. Individual measures are grouped and ranked to form scenario packages for total and average costs of avoided carbon equivalent emissions. Examples are presented for Sweden, the United States and the state of Karnataka, India. A key finding is that there appears to exist significant emission avoiding potential that can be exploited at a net economic benefit to society. This potential is insufficient, however, to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases. The suggestion that changes can be made to energy systems leading to significant levels of avoided carbon dioxide emissions at little or no cost to society has been refuted by economic theoreticians, whose writings warn that policies aimed at avoiding greenhouse gas emissions will incur exorbitant costs. A case study of the potential to use ethanol produced from sugar cane as a transportation fuel in Thailand is used to illustrate an integrated approach to evaluating components of alternative energy systems

  13. The treatment of climate science in Integrated Assessment Modelling: integration of climate step function response in an energy system integrated assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dessens, Olivier

    2016-04-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are used as crucial inputs to policy-making on climate change. These models simulate aspect of the economy and climate system to deliver future projections and to explore the impact of mitigation and adaptation policies. The IAMs' climate representation is extremely important as it can have great influence on future political action. The step-function-response is a simple climate model recently developed by the UK Met Office and is an alternate method of estimating the climate response to an emission trajectory directly from global climate model step simulations. Good et al., (2013) have formulated a method of reconstructing general circulation models (GCMs) climate response to emission trajectories through an idealized experiment. This method is called the "step-response approach" after and is based on an idealized abrupt CO2 step experiment results. TIAM-UCL is a technology-rich model that belongs to the family of, partial-equilibrium, bottom-up models, developed at University College London to represent a wide spectrum of energy systems in 16 regions of the globe (Anandarajah et al. 2011). The model uses optimisation functions to obtain cost-efficient solutions, in meeting an exogenously defined set of energy-service demands, given certain technological and environmental constraints. Furthermore, it employs linear programming techniques making the step function representation of the climate change response adapted to the model mathematical formulation. For the first time, we have introduced the "step-response approach" method developed at the UK Met Office in an IAM, the TIAM-UCL energy system, and we investigate the main consequences of this modification on the results of the model in term of climate and energy system responses. The main advantage of this approach (apart from the low computational cost it entails) is that its results are directly traceable to the GCM involved and closely connected to well-known methods of

  14. Quantitative assessment of resilience of a water supply system under rainfall reduction due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amarasinghe, Pradeep; Liu, An; Egodawatta, Prasanna; Barnes, Paul; McGree, James; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2016-09-01

    A water supply system can be impacted by rainfall reduction due to climate change, thereby reducing its supply potential. This highlights the need to understand the system resilience, which refers to the ability to maintain service under various pressures (or disruptions). Currently, the concept of resilience has not yet been widely applied in managing water supply systems. This paper proposed three technical resilience indictors to assess the resilience of a water supply system. A case study analysis was undertaken of the Water Grid system of Queensland State, Australia, to showcase how the proposed indicators can be applied to assess resilience. The research outcomes confirmed that the use of resilience indicators is capable of identifying critical conditions in relation to the water supply system operation, such as the maximum allowable rainfall reduction for the system to maintain its operation without failure. Additionally, resilience indicators also provided useful insight regarding the sensitivity of the water supply system to a changing rainfall pattern in the context of climate change, which represents the system's stability when experiencing pressure. The study outcomes will help in the quantitative assessment of resilience and provide improved guidance to system operators to enhance the efficiency and reliability of a water supply system.

  15. Ocean Drilling Program Records of the Last Five Million Years: A View of the Ocean and Climate System During a Warm Period and a Major Climate Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravelo, A. C.

    2003-12-01

    The warm Pliocene (4.7 to 3.0 Ma), the most recent period in Earth's history when global equilibrium climate was warmer than today, provides the opportunity to understand what role the components of the climate system that have a long timescale of response (cryosphere and ocean) play in determining globally warm conditions, and in forcing the major global climate cooling after 3.0 Ma. Because sediments of this age are well preserved in many locations in the world's oceans, we can potentially study this warm period in detail. One major accomplishment of the Ocean Drilling Program is the recovery of long continuous sediment sequences from all ocean basins that span the last 5.0 Ma. Dozens of paleoceanographers have generated climate records from these sediments. I will present a synthesis of these data to provide a global picture of the Pliocene warm period, the transition to the cold Pleistocene period, and changes in climate sensitivity related to this transition. In the Pliocene warm period, tropical sea surface temperature (SST) and global climate patterns suggest average conditions that resemble modern El Ni¤os, and deep ocean reconstructions indicate enhanced thermohaline overturning and reduced density and nutrient stratification. The data indicate that the warm conditions were not related to tectonic changes in ocean basin shape compared to today, rather they reflect the long term adjustment of the climate system to stronger than modern radiative forcing. The warm Pliocene to cold Pleistocene transition provides an opportunity to study the feedbacks of various components of the climate system. The marked onset of significant Northern hemisphere glaciation (NHG) at 2.75 Ma occurred in concert with a reduction in deep ocean ventilation, but cooling in subtropical and tropical regions was more gradual until Walker circulation was established in a major step at 2.0 Ma. Thus, regional high latitude ice albedo feedbacks, rather than low latitude processes, must

  16. Assessing climate change impacts on the Iberian power system using a coupled water-power model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cardenal, Silvio Javier Pereira; Madsen, Henrik; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to have a negative impact on the power system of the Iberian Peninsula; changes in river runoff are expected to reduce hydropower generation, while higher temperatures are expected to increase summer electricity demand, when water resources are already limited. However......, these impacts have not yet been evaluated at the peninsular level. We coupled a hydrological model with a power market model to study three impacts of climate change on the current Iberian power system: changes in hydropower production caused by changes in precipitation and temperature, changes in...... temporal patterns of electricity demand caused by temperature changes, and changes in irrigation water use caused by temperature and precipitation changes. A stochastic dynamic programming approach was used to develop operating rules for the integrated system given hydrological uncertainty. We found that...

  17. Energetic and exergetic analyses of carbon dioxide transcritical refrigeration systems for hot climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fazelpour Farivar

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last two decades many scientific papers and reports have been published in the field of the application of the carbon dioxide as a refrigerant for refrigeration systems and heat pumps. Special attention has been paid to the transcritical cycle. However, almost no papers discussed such cycles for hot climates, i.e., when the temperature of the environment is higher than 40ºС during a long period of time. This paper deals with the energetic and exergetic evaluation of a CO2 refrigeration system operating in a transcritical cycle under hot climatic conditions. The performance and exergy efficiency of the CO2 refrigeration system depend on the operation conditions. The effect of varying these conditions is also investigated as well as the limitations associated with these conditions.

  18. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Dike Safety and Flood Risk in the Vidaa River System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, H.; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Larsen, J.;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on the flood risk and dike safety in the Vidaa River system, a cross-border catchment located in the southern part of Jutland, Denmark and northern Germany, is analysed. The river discharges to the Wadden Sea through a tidal sluice, and extreme water level conditions...... in the river system occur in periods of high sea water levels where the sluice is closed and increased catchment run-off take place. Climate model data from the ENSEMBLES data archive are used to assess the changes in climate variables and the resulting effect on catchment run-off. Extreme catchment run......-off is expected to increase about 8 % in 2050 and 14 % in 2100. The changes in sea water level is assessed considering climate projections of mean sea level rise, isostatic changes, and changes in storm surge statistics. At the Vidaa sluice a mean sea level rise of 0.15–0.39 m in 2050 and 0.41–1.11 m in 2010...

  19. Pilot climate data system: A state-of-the-art capability in scientific data management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, P. H.; Treinish, L. A.; Novak, L. V.

    1983-01-01

    The Pilot Climate Data System (PCDS) was developed by the Information Management Branch of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center to manage a large collection of climate-related data of interest to the research community. The PCDS now provides uniform data catalogs, inventories, access methods, graphical displays and statistical calculations for selected NASA and non-NASA data sets. Data manipulation capabilities were developed to permit researchers to easily combine or compare data. The current capabilities of the PCDS include many tools for the statistical survey of climate data. A climate researcher can examine any data set of interest via flexible utilities to create a variety of two- and three-dimensional displays, including vector plots, scatter diagrams, histograms, contour plots, surface diagrams and pseudo-color images. The graphics and statistics subsystems employ an intermediate data storage format which is data-set independent. Outside of the graphics system there exist other utilities to select, filter, list, compress, and calculate time-averages and variances for any data of interest. The PCDS now fully supports approximately twenty different data sets and is being used on a trial basis by several different in-house research grounds.

  20. Modelling climate change effects on a Dutch coastal groundwater system using airborne Electro Magnetic measurements

    OpenAIRE

    M. Faneca Sànchez; J. L. Gunnink; E. S. van Baaren; Oude Essink, G.H.P.; B. Siemon; E. Auken; W. Elderhorst; de Louw, P.G.B.

    2012-01-01

    The forecast of climate change effects on the groundwater system in coastal areas is of key importance for policy makers. The Dutch water system has been deeply studied because of its complex system of low-lying areas, dunes, land won to the sea and dikes, but nowadays large efforts are still being done to find out the best techniques to describe complex fresh-brackish-saline groundwater dynamic systems. In this article, we describe a methodology consisting of high-resolution airborne Electro...

  1. Elucidation of circulation mechanism on climatic changing vapor caused by water field ecology system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As climatic change caused by increase of carbon dioxide amounts emitted by industrial development is much anxious, it is well-known that water field ecology system relaxes change of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, which is a climatic changing gas and has a closed relationship to the earth warming, is caught from atmosphere in the water field ecology system to be fixed as organic carbon and constitutes a starting point of food chains thereafter. In this study, in order to examine change of carbon dioxide, which is one of climatic changing gas or greenhouse effect gas caused by water field ecology system, 14-C was added to microcosm, which constructs a water field ecology system model, to measure 14-C amounts in each organism. As a result, it was found that carbon transfer in the system could be examined. And, it was also found that it was possible to understand more precise flow of substances and to elucidate quantitatively absorption of carbon dioxide and flow of carbon thereafter under different conditions, by future attempts on upgrading precision such as changing amounts of adding RI, and so forth. (G.K.)

  2. Understanding Student Cognition about Complex Earth System Processes Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNeal, K. S.; Libarkin, J.; Ledley, T. S.; Dutta, S.; Templeton, M. C.; Geroux, J.; Blakeney, G. A.

    2011-12-01

    The Earth's climate system includes complex behavior and interconnections with other Earth spheres that present challenges to student learning. To better understand these unique challenges, we have conducted experiments with high-school and introductory level college students to determine how information pertaining to the connections between the Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth spheres (e.g., hydrosphere and cryosphere) are processed. Specifically, we include psychomotor tests (e.g., eye-tracking) and open-ended questionnaires in this research study, where participants were provided scientific images of the Earth (e.g., global precipitation and ocean and atmospheric currents), eye-tracked, and asked to provide causal or relational explanations about the viewed images. In addition, the students engaged in on-line modules (http://serc.carleton.edu/eslabs/climate/index.html) focused on Earth system science as training activities to address potential cognitive barriers. The developed modules included interactive media, hands-on lessons, links to outside resources, and formative assessment questions to promote a supportive and data-rich learning environment. Student eye movements were tracked during engagement with the materials to determine the role of perception and attention on understanding. Students also completed a conceptual questionnaire pre-post to determine if these on-line curriculum materials assisted in their development of connections between Earth's atmospheric system and the other Earth systems. The pre-post results of students' thinking about climate change concepts, as well as eye-tracking results, will be presented.

  3. Urban drainage system planning and design--challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yazdanfar, Zeinab; Sharma, Ashok

    2015-01-01

    Urban drainage systems are in general failing in their functions mainly due to non-stationary climate and rapid urbanization. As these systems are becoming less efficient, issues such as sewer overflows and increase in urban flooding leading to surge in pollutant loads to receiving water bodies are becoming pervasive rapidly. A comprehensive investigation is required to understand these factors impacting the functioning of urban drainage, which vary spatially and temporally and are more complex when weaving together. It is necessary to establish a cost-effective, integrated planning and design framework for every local area by incorporating fit for purpose alternatives. Carefully selected adaptive measures are required for the provision of sustainable drainage systems to meet combined challenges of climate change and urbanization. This paper reviews challenges associated with urban drainage systems and explores limitations and potentials of different adaptation alternatives. It is hoped that the paper would provide drainage engineers, water planners, and decision makers with the state of the art information and technologies regarding adaptation options to increase drainage systems efficiency under changing climate and urbanization. PMID:26177398

  4. Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A probabilistic assessment of climate change and related impacts should consider a large range of potential future climate scenarios. State-of-the-art climate models, especially coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and Regional Climate Models (RCMs cannot, however, be used to simulate such a large number of scenarios. This paper presents a methodology for obtaining future climate scenarios through a simple scaling methodology. The projections of several key meteorological variables obtained from a few regional climate model runs are scaled, based on different global-mean warming projections drawn in a probability distribution of future global-mean warming. The resulting climate change scenarios are used to drive a hydrological and a water management model to analyse the potential climate change impacts on a water resources system. This methodology enables a joint quantification of the climate change impact uncertainty induced by the global-mean warming scenarios and the regional climate response. It is applied to a case study in Switzerland, a water resources system formed by three interconnected lakes located in the Jura Mountains. The system behaviour is simulated for a control period (1961–1990 and a future period (2070–2099. The potential climate change impacts are assessed through a set of impact indices related to different fields of interest (hydrology, agriculture and ecology. The results obtained show that future climate conditions will have a significant influence on the performance of the system and that the uncertainty induced by the inter-RCM variability will contribute to much of the uncertainty of the prediction of the total impact. These CSRs cover the area considered in the 2001–2004 EU funded project SWURVE.

  5. Experimental performance of evaporative cooling pad systems in greenhouses in humid subtropical climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Experimental performance of evaporative cooling in humid climate is investigated. • 5 working modes are studied in the greenhouse. • Vertical and horizontal temperature and relative humidity variations are analysed. • Indoor temperature can be kept in required level by proper working modes. - Abstract: To solve the overheating problem caused by the solar radiation and to keep the indoor temperature and humidity at a proper level for plants or crops, cooling technologies play vital role in greenhouse industry, and among which evaporative cooling is one of the most commonly-used methods. However, the main challenge of the evaporative cooling is its suitability to local climatic and agronomic condition. In this study, the performance of evaporative cooling pads was investigated experimentally in a 2304-m2 glass multi-span greenhouse in Shanghai in the southeast of China. Temperature and humidity distributions were measured and reported for different working modes, including the use of evaporative cooling alone and the use of evaporative cooling with shading or ventilation. These experiments were conducted in humid subtropical climates where were considered unfavourable for evaporative cooling pad systems. Quantified analyses from the energy perspective are also made based on the experimental results and the evaporative cooling fan–pad system is demonstrated to be an effective option for greenhouse cooling even in the humid climate. Suggestions and possible solutions for further improving the performance of the system are proposed. The results of this work will be useful for the optimisation of the energy management of greenhouses in humid climates and for the validation of the mathematical model in future work

  6. Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

    2014-12-01

    The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the

  7. Climate change and climate systems influence and control the atmospheric dispersion of desert dust: implications for human health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Dale W.

    2010-01-01

    The global dispersion of desert dust through Earth’s atmosphere is greatly influenced by temperature. Temporal analyses of ice core data have demonstrated that enhanced dust dispersion occurs during glacial events. This is due to an increase in ice cover, which results in an increase in drier terrestrial cover. A shorter temporal analysis of dust dispersion data over the last 40 years has demonstrated an increase in dust transport. Climate systems or events such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean subtropical High, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and El Nino-Sothern Oscillation are known to influence global short-term dust dispersion occurrence and transport routes. Anthropogenic influences on dust transport include deforestation, harmful use of topsoil for agriculture as observed during the American Dust Bowl period, and the creation of dry seas (Aral Sea) and lakes (Lake Owens in California and Lake Chad in North Africa) through the diversion of source waters (for irrigation and drinking water supplies). Constituents of desert dust both from source regions (pathogenic microorganisms, organic and inorganic toxins) and those scavenged through atmospheric transport (i.e., industrial and agricultural emissions) are known to directly impact human and ecosystem health. This presentation will present a review of global scale dust storms and how these events can be both a detriment and benefit to various organisms in downwind environments.

  8. Climate correlates of 20 years of trophic changes in a high-elevation riparian system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.E.

    2007-01-01

    The consequences of climate change for ecosystem structure and function remain largely unknown. Here, I examine the ability of climate variation to explain long-term changes in bird and plant populations, as well as trophic interactions in a high-elevation riparian system in central Arizona, USA, based on 20 years of study. Abundances of dominant deciduous trees have declined dramatically over the 20 years, correlated with a decline in overwinter snowfall. Snowfall can affect overwinter presence of elk, whose browsing can significantly impact deciduous tree abundance. Thus, climate may affect the plant community indirectly through effects on herbivores, but may also act directly by influencing water availability for plants. Seven species of birds were found to initiate earlier breeding associated with an increase in spring temperature across years. The advance in breeding time did not affect starvation of young or clutch size. Earlier breeding also did not increase the length of the breeding season for single-brooded species, but did for multi-brooded species. Yet, none of these phenology-related changes was associated with bird population trends. Climate had much larger consequences for these seven bird species by affecting trophic levels below (plants) and above (predators) the birds. In particular, the climate-related declines in deciduous vegetation led to decreased abundance of preferred bird habitat and increased nest predation rates. In addition, summer precipitation declined over time, and drier summers also were further associated with greater nest predation in all species. The net result was local extinction and severe population declines in some previously common bird species, whereas one species increased strongly in abundance, and two species did not show clear population changes. These data indicate that climate can alter ecosystem structure and function through complex pathways that include direct and indirect effects on abundances and interactions

  9. Impacts and environmental catastrophes: A study of the effects of impact events on the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierazzo, E.

    2005-01-01

    The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.

  10. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  11. Cultivating a Network For Messaging About Climate Change Across an Urban System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertheim, J.

    2014-12-01

    Currently, some of the most promising efforts to address climate change are taking place at the scale of cities and municipalities. Large urban areas host an active population of organizations working to influence local environmental policies more rigorous than those at the state and national level. The composition of these groups is broadening as impacts of climate change are being recognized as relevant to more sectors within urban systems, from health centers to community leaders, leading more organizations to consider how they can raise awareness and gain support for their needs. The National Geographic Society, as part of the National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP), has convened a pilot "community of practice" (CoP) consisting of organizations working at the local level in Washington, DC to communicate with audiences, from the general public to local government agencies, about ways that climate change is predicted to affect the city and what can be done about it. The purpose of the CoP was initially to help these groups coordinate their activities, share knowledge and resources, and to create a platform for ongoing collaborative learning. While the CoP is still evolving, it is clear that it has potential to provide even deeper and more meaningful support to these groups' efforts. Developing effective messaging about climate change across an urban system depends on the valuable insight these groups have into their audience's interests, beliefs, and knowledge, but it also requires a set of competencies that few members of the CoP hold. As conveners of the CoP, we have identified and prioritized those competencies and are developing a process for training CoP members to apply their expertise to implement empirically-based best practices in climate change messaging, public communication, and integration of data and visualizations. The process of training the group has the potential to both create a CoP that becomes a

  12. A multi-resolution method for climate system modeling: application of spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ringler, Todd [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ju, Lili [University of South Carolina; Gunzburger, Max [Florida State University

    2008-01-01

    During the next decade and beyond, climate system models will be challenged to resolve scales and processes that are far beyond their current scope. Each climate system component has its prototypical example of an unresolved process that may strongly influence the global climate system, ranging from eddy activity within ocean models, to ice streams within ice sheet models, to surface hydrological processes within land system models, to cloud processes within atmosphere models. These new demands will almost certainly result in the develop of multiresolution schemes that are able, at least regionally, to faithfully simulate these fine-scale processes. Spherical centroidal Voronoi tessellations (SCVTs) offer one potential path toward the development of a robust, multiresolution climate system model components. SCVTs allow for the generation of high quality Voronoi diagrams and Delaunay triangulations through the use of an intuitive, user-defined density function. In each of the examples provided, this method results in high-quality meshes where the quality measures are guaranteed to improve as the number of nodes is increased. Real-world examples are developed for the Greenland ice sheet and the North Atlantic ocean. Idealized examples are developed for ocean–ice shelf interaction and for regional atmospheric modeling. In addition to defining, developing, and exhibiting SCVTs, we pair this mesh generation technique with a previously developed finite-volume method. Our numerical example is based on the nonlinear, shallow water equations spanning the entire surface of the sphere. This example is used to elucidate both the potential benefits of this multiresolution method and the challenges ahead.

  13. Planning and costing agricultural adaptation to climate change in the pastoral livestock system of Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tumbo, S.; Mutabazi, K.; Kimambo, A.; Rwehumbiza, F.

    2011-08-15

    farmers (such as those involving temporary and permanent migration). From this study, some policy-relevant recommendations have been formulated: 1. The need to establish an environmental section in the Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries Development (MLFD). 2. The necessity for increased investment systems and structures for animal agriculture. 3. The need for increased investment in research, extension and training. 4. The requirement for more bottom-up studies on the economics of climate change in agriculture to be undertaken in order to fill knowledge gaps, apply existing and emerging methods, and improve the estimates.

  14. Climate Variability Recorded in Earth System History: Contributions to our Understanding of a Changing Planet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, E. J.

    2001-12-01

    The study of Earth System History is characterized by substantial innovation and excitement directed toward addressing the critical issue of understanding a changing planet and promoting new insights into the evolution of the Earth and its resources. Much of this innovation reflects the considerable expansion in the availability and quality of observations, particularly from the oceans, and the development and application of numerical models of the ocean-atmosphere-land-ice system. The key challenge within the Earth sciences is to develop a robust understanding of this coupled earth system and then to develop a predictive capability for natural variability and global change. Our capabilities are limited, among other things, by the fact that the instrumented record is too short to provide a strong sense of the character of change and the sensitivity of the Earth system. For this reason, modern observations are inadequate to demonstrate the capability of climate models to simulate conditions very different from the present day. The importance of Earth system history, and the ocean record in particular, stems from unique capabilities to: (1) assess the temporal and spatial characteristics of system variability, (2) define the nature of Earth sensitivity to a large number of forcing factors, including changes in ocean circulation and in greenhouse gases, (3) examine the integrated climatic, chemical and biologic response of the Earth system to a variety of spatial and temporal perturbations, (4) validate the predictions of numerical models for conditions very different from the present day, and (5) assess the rates of change associated with the evolution of the Earth and its components. Earth system history provides a great diversity of examples yielding a remarkable opportunity to develop insights into a broad range of issues and problems associated with the evolution of our planet. Three examples provide a focus for discussion. First, a careful analysis of climate

  15. An automated system for access to derived climate indices in support of ecological impacts assessments and resource management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, J.; Morisette, J. T.; Talbert, C.; Blodgett, D. L.; Kunicki, T.

    2012-12-01

    A U.S. Geological Survey team is working with several providers to establish standard data services for the climate projection data they host. To meet the needs of climate adaptation science and landscape management communities, the team is establishing a set of climate index calculation algorithms that will consume data from various providers and provide directly useful data derivatives. Climate projections coming from various scenarios, modeling centers, and downscaling methods are increasing in number and size. Global change impact modeling and assessment, generally, requires inputs in the form of climate indices or values derived from raw climate projections. This requirement puts a large burden on a community not familiar with climate data formats, semantics, and processing techniques and requires storage capacity and computing resources out of the reach of most. In order to fully understand the implications of our best available climate projections, assessments must take into account an ensemble of climate projections and potentially a range of parameters for calculation of climate indices. These requirements around data access and processing are not unique from project to project, or even among projected climate data sets, pointing to the need for a reusable tool to generate climate indices. The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a pilot application and supporting web service framework that automates the generation of climate indices. The web service framework consists of standards-based data servers and a data integration broker. The resulting system allows data producers to publish and maintain ownership of their data and data consumers to access climate derivatives via a simple to use "data product ordering" workflow. Data access and processing is completed on enterprise "cloud" computing resources and only the relatively small, derived climate indices are delivered to the scientist or land manager. These services will assist the scientific and land

  16. Correlation Assessment of Climate and Geographic Distribution of Tuberculosis Using Geographical Information System (GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza BEIRANVAND

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Tuberculosis (TB spread pattern is influenced by geographic and social factors. Nowadays Geographic Information System (GIS is one of the most important epidemiological instrumentation identifying high-risk population groups and geographic areas of TB. The aim of this study was to determine the correlation between climate and geographic distribution of TB in Khuzestan Province using GIS during 2005-2012.Methods: Through an ecological study, all 6363 patients with definite diagnosis of TB from 2005 until the end of September 2012 in Khuzestan Province, southern Iran were diagnosed. Data were recorded using TB- Register software. Tuberculosis incidence based on the climate and the average of annual rain was evaluated using GIS. Data were analyzed through SPSS software. Independent t-test, ANOVA, Linear regression, Pearson and Eta correlation coefficient with a significance level of less than 5% were used for the statistical analysis.Results: The TB incidence was different in various geographic conditions. The highest mean of TB cumulative incidence rate was observed in extra dry areas (P= 0.017. There was a significant inverse correlation between annual rain rate and TB incidence rate (R= -0.45, P= 0.001. The lowest TB incidence rate (0-100 cases per 100,000 was in areas with the average of annual rain more than 1000 mm (P= 0.003.Conclusion: The risk of TB has a strong relationship with climate and the average of annual rain, so that the risk of TB in areas with low annual rainfall and extra dry climate is more than other regions. Services and special cares to high-risk regions of TB are recommended.Keywords: Annual rain, Climatic processes, Geographic information systems, Tuberculosis

  17. Building America Residential System Research Results: Achieving 30% Whole House Energy Savings Level in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Building Industry Research Alliance (BIRA); Building Science Consortium (BSC); Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB); Florida Solar Energy Center (FSEC); IBACOS; National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)

    2006-08-01

    The Building America program conducts the system research required to reduce risks associated with the design and construction of homes that use an average of 30% to 90% less total energy for all residential energy uses than the Building America Research Benchmark, including research on homes that will use zero net energy on annual basis. To measure the program's progress, annual research milestones have been established for five major climate regions in the United States. The system research activities required to reach each milestone take from 3 to 5 years to complete and include research in individual test houses, studies in pre-production prototypes, and research studies with lead builders that provide early examples that the specified energy savings level can be successfully achieved on a production basis. This report summarizes research results for the 30% energy savings level and demonstrates that lead builders can successfully provide 30% homes in Cold Climates on a cost-neutral basis.

  18. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  19. Energy analysis of the personalized ventilation system in hot and humid climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiavon, S.; Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Sekhar, C.

    2010-01-01

    , inhaled air quality, thermal comfort, and self-estimated productivity. Little is known about its energy performance. In this study, the energy consumption of a personalized ventilation system introduced in an office building located in a hot and humid climate (Singapore) has been investigated by means of......Personalized ventilation (PV) is an individually controlled air distribution system aimed at improving the quality of inhaled air and the thermal comfort of each occupant. Numerous studies have shown that PV in comparison with traditional mechanical ventilation systems may improve occupants’ health...

  20. Collaborative Research: Robust Climate Projections and Stochastic Stability of Dynamical Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ghil, Michael; McWilliams, James; Neelin, J. David; Zaliapin, Ilya; Chekroun, Mickael; Kondrashov, Dmitri; Simonnet, Eric

    2011-10-13

    The project was completed along the lines of the original proposal, with additional elements arising as new results were obtained. The originally proposed three thrusts were expanded to include an additional, fourth one. (i) The e ffects of stochastic perturbations on climate models have been examined at the fundamental level by using the theory of deterministic and random dynamical systems, in both nite and in nite dimensions. (ii) The theoretical results have been implemented first on a delay-diff erential equation (DDE) model of the El-Nino/Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. (iii) More detailed, physical aspects of model robustness have been considered, as proposed, within the stripped-down ICTP-AGCM (formerly SPEEDY) climate model. This aspect of the research has been complemented by both observational and intermediate-model aspects of mid-latitude and tropical climate. (iv) An additional thrust of the research relied on new and unexpected results of (i) and involved reduced-modeling strategies and associated prediction aspects have been tested within the team's empirical model reduction (EMR) framework. Finally, more detailed, physical aspects have been considered within the stripped-down SPEEDY climate model. The results of each of these four complementary e fforts are presented in the next four sections, organized by topic and by the team members concentrating on the topic under discussion.

  1. Oscar: a portable prototype system for the study of climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madonna, Fabio; Rosoldi, Marco; Amato, Francesco

    2015-04-01

    The study of the techniques for the exploitation of solar energy implies the knowledge of nature, ecosystem, biological factors and local climate. Clouds, fog, water vapor, and the presence of large concentrations of dust can significantly affect the way to exploit the solar energy. Therefore, a quantitative characterization of the impact of climate variability at the regional scale is needed to increase the efficiency and sustainability of the energy system. OSCAR (Observation System for Climate Application at Regional scale) project, funded in the frame of the PO FESR 2007-2013, aims at the design of a portable prototype system for the study of correlations among the trends of several Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) and the change in the amount of solar irradiance at the ground level. The final goal of this project is to provide a user-friendly low cost solution for the quantification of the impact of regional climate variability on the efficiency of solar cell and concentrators to improve the exploitation of natural sources. The prototype has been designed on the basis of historical measurements performed at CNR-IMAA Atmospheric Observatory (CIAO). Measurements from satellite and data from models have been also considered as ancillary to the study, above all, to fill in the gaps of existing datasets. In this work, the results outcome from the project activities will be presented. The results include: the design and implementation of the prototype system; the development of a methodology for the estimation of the impact of climate variability, mainly due to aerosol, cloud and water vapor, on the solar irradiance using the integration of the observations potentially provided by prototype; the study of correlation between the surface radiation, precipitation and aerosols transport. In particular, a statistical study will be presented to assess the impact of the atmosphere on the solar irradiance at the ground, quantifying the contribution due to aerosol and

  2. Influence of Climatic Changes and Human Activities on the Salinization Process of Coastal Aquifer Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Dimitra Rapti-Caputo

    2010-01-01

    In the present research, two arid coastal zones of the Mediterranean region (mean annual precipitation about 440 mm/a), have been investigated for evaluating the qualitative and quantitative impact of both human activities and climatic changes on the groundwater resources and the hydrological cycle in general. In particular, the hydrographic network of the Akrotiri (Cyprus) coastal aquifer system is strongly controlled by engineering handicrafts that have induced a quality worsening of the gr...

  3. Climate Science, Development Practice, and Policy Interactions in Dryland Agroecological Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Crane, Todd A.; Federica Ravera; Andrew J. Dougill; Quinn, C.; Lindsay C. Stringer; Fraser , Evan D. G.; Chasca Twyman; Susannah M. Sallu

    2011-01-01

    The literature on drought, livelihoods, and poverty suggests that dryland residents are especially vulnerable to climate change. However, assessing this vulnerability and sharing lessons between dryland communities on how to reduce vulnerability has proven difficult because of multiple definitions of vulnerability, complexities in quantification, and the temporal and spatial variability inherent in dryland agroecological systems. In this closing editorial, we review how we have addressed thes...

  4. Lighting and Energy Performance of an Adaptive Shading and Daylighting System for Arid Climates

    OpenAIRE

    Giovannini, Luigi; Lo Verso, Valerio Roberto Maria

    2015-01-01

    Finding the proper trade-off between blocking direct sunlight, ensuring sufficient indoor daylighting and view out is a particularly delicate task especially in arid climates, due to harsh environmental conditions. As a tentative answer to this challenge, an adaptive shading and daylighting system (Shape Variable Mashrabiya - SVM) has been developed by the authors, described in an earlier paper. In this paper, we analyze how the SVM may affect annual lighting and global primary energy perform...

  5. The Indonesian seas and their role in the coupled ocean-climate system

    OpenAIRE

    Sprintall, J.; Gordon, A. L.; Koch Larrouy, Ariane; Lee, T.; Potemra, J. T.; Pujiana, K.; Wijffels, S.E.

    2014-01-01

    The Indonesian seas represent the only pathway that connects different ocean basins in the tropics, and therefore play a pivotal role in the coupled ocean and climate system. Here, water flows from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean through a series of narrow straits. The throughflow is characterized by strong velocities at water depths of about 100 m, with more minor contributions from surface flow than previously thought. A synthesis of observational data and model simulations indicates that t...

  6. Residential Solar-Based Seasonal Thermal Storage Systems in Cold Climates: Building Envelope and Thermal Storage

    OpenAIRE

    Alexandre Hugo; Radu Zmeureanu

    2012-01-01

    The reduction of electricity use for heating and domestic hot water in cold climates can be achieved by: (1) reducing the heating loads through the improvement of the thermal performance of house envelopes, and (2) using solar energy through a residential solar-based thermal storage system. First, this paper presents the life cycle energy and cost analysis of a typical one-storey detached house, located in Montreal, Canada. Simulation of annual energy use is performed using the TRNSYS softwar...

  7. Energetic and exergetic analyses of carbon dioxide transcritical refrigeration systems for hot climates

    OpenAIRE

    Fazelpour Farivar

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades many scientific papers and reports have been published in the field of the application of the carbon dioxide as a refrigerant for refrigeration systems and heat pumps. Special attention has been paid to the transcritical cycle. However, almost no papers discussed such cycles for hot climates, i.e., when the temperature of the environment is higher than 40ºС during a long period of time. This paper deals with the energetic and exerget...

  8. A Review of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems Considering the Climate Change and Urbanization Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Qianqian Zhou

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and urbanization are converging to challenge city drainage infrastructure due to their adverse impacts on precipitation extremes and the environment of urban areas. Sustainable drainage systems have gained growing public interest in recent years, as a result of its positive effects on water quality and quantity issues and additional recreational amenities perceived in the urban landscape. This paper reviews recent progress in sustainable drainage development based on literature...

  9. Observing Human-induced Linkages between Urbanization and Earth's Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, J. Marshall; Jin, Menglin

    2004-01-01

    Urbanization is one of the extreme cases of land use change. Most of world s population has moved to urban areas. Although currently only 1.2% of the land is considered urban, the spatial coverage and density of cities are expected to rapidly increase in the near future. It is estimated that by the year 2025, 60% of the world s population will live in cities. Human activity in urban environments also alters atmospheric composition; impacts components of the water cycle; and modifies the carbon cycle and ecosystems. However, our understanding of urbanization on the total Earth-climate system is incomplete. Better understanding of how the Earth s atmosphere-ocean-land-biosphere components interact as a coupled system and the influence of the urban environment on this climate system is critical. The goal of the 2003 AGU Union session Human-induced climate variations on urban areas: From observations to modeling was to bring together scientists from interdisciplinary backgrounds to discuss the data, scientific approaches and recent results on observing and modeling components of the urban environment with the intent of sampling our current stand and discussing future direction on this topic. Herein, a summary and discussion of the observations component of the session are presented.

  10. The Impact of the Ocean Sulfur Cycle on Climate using the Community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Elliott, S. M.; Bergmann, D. J.; Branstetter, M. L.; Chuang, C.; Erickson, D. J.; Jacob, R. L.; Maltrud, M. E.; Mirin, A. A.

    2011-12-01

    Chemical cycling between the various Earth system components (atmosphere, biosphere, land, ocean, and sea-ice) can cause positive and negative feedbacks on the climate system. The long-standing CLAW/GAIA hypothesis proposed that global warming might stimulate increased production of dimethyl sulfide (DMS) by plankton in the ocean, which would then provide a negative climate feedback through atmospheric oxidation of the DMS to sulfate aerosols that reflect sunlight directly, and indirectly by affecting clouds. Our state-of-the-art earth system model (CESM with an ocean sulfur cycle and atmospheric chemistry) shows increased production of DMS over the 20th century by plankton, particularly in the Southern Ocean and Equatorial Pacific, which leads to modest cooling from direct reflection of sunlight in those regions. This suggests the possibility of local climate change mitigation by the plankton species that produce DMS. Part of this work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  11. Resilience of Athabascan subsistence systems to interior Alaska's changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kofinas, G.P. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology; Chapin, F.S. III; Schmidt, J.I.; Kielland, K. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Arctic Biology; BurnSilver, S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). School of Natural Resources and Agricultural Sciences; Fresco, N.L.; Springsteen, A.; Rupp, T.S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning; Martin, S. [Alaska Univ., Fairbanks, AK (United States). Inst. of Social and Economic Research

    2010-07-15

    Indigenous peoples have occupied interior Alaska for 6000 to 9000 years. The arrival of different cultural groups, or Athabascan Peoples, preceded or coincided with the arrival of black spruce dominated fire-prone vegetation that developed in interior Alaska about 6000 years ago. The Athabascan subsistence hunting system of interior Alaska is a tightly integrated social-ecological system in which people depend on nature for a wide range of ecosystem services such as subsistence resources, protection from fire risk, and cultural ties to their traditional lands. This paper described the effects of recent trends and future climate change projections on the boreal ecosystem of the region and depicted the changes in ecosystem services to Athabascan subsistence. The study focused primarily on moose because of the high dependence on moose by village households. The vulnerability of Athabascan subsistence systems to climatic change has increased in some respects, but has also improved aspects of village resilience. Communities facing future climate and socioeconomic changes, have limited but potentially effective mitigation and adaptation opportunities, but the extent to which they can be realized depends on the responsiveness of institutions to meet local needs through effective management strategies. 1 tab., 6 figs.

  12. Sensitivity and response time of natural systems to climatic change in the late quaternary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, H. E.

    Although the leading theory for the cause of climatic change — the Milankovitch perturbations in insolation — indicates variable rates of change at different latitudes, any discussion of the sensitivity and response time of different natural systems is most practical when the climatic change is considered to be relatively abrupt and global rather than gradual and regional. The oxygen-isotope record in glacial ice should have the swiftest response time, but the stratigraphic record in ice sheets at particular localities may be obscured or confused if the glacier flow is irregular. The oxygen-isotope stratigraphy of ocean sediment cores is a sensitive reflection primarily of contemporaneous ice volume, and to a lesser extent ocean temperature. Ocean temperature, however, is recorded more specifically by microfossils in ocean sediments and may reflect global insolation directly, except that in the North Atlantic the influence of glacial meltwater and various feedbacks may override the insolation factor. The differential lags in the response of isotopes and faunas to insolational change are apparent in the ocean sediment stratigraphy. Ice sheets themselves at their terminus may respond to climatic change only slowly if a change in snow accumulation is the factor, because of the time involved in building a thickness sufficient for flow to great distances, but if wastage near the margin is the factor then the response may be more rapid. Some glaciers, however, may advance rapidly without regard to climatic change, as in the case of surging, or they may retreat just as rapidly if they terminate in deep water, through iceberg formation. World sea level is depressed with glacial growth and thus reflects the volume of ice sheets, but isostatic changes in the crust complicate the sea level response not only locally beneath the ice load but elsewhere as well. The pluvial lakes of the American Southwest, correlated in their high levels with intervals of glaciation, show a

  13. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

    2016-01-01

    Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  14. Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of climatic shifts on the production and processing of native and traditional crops in the Bolivian Andes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alder eKeleman Saxena

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data was collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed-methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes a the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia; and b the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp., oca (Oxalis tuberosa, tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis, papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus, and charkay (llama or sheep jerky. Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Further, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. While these findings are drawn from a single case-study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, indigenous food systems. Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture, and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat

  15. Modelling climate change effects on a Dutch coastal groundwater system using airborne electromagnetic measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Faneca Sànchez

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The forecast of climate change effects on the groundwater system in coastal areas is of key importance for policy makers. The Dutch water system has been deeply studied because of its complex system of low-lying areas, dunes, land won to the sea and dikes, but nowadays large efforts are still being done to find out the best techniques to describe complex fresh-brackish-saline groundwater dynamic systems. In this paper, we describe a methodology consisting of high-resolution airborne electromagnetic (EM measurements used in a 3-D variable-density transient groundwater model for a coastal area in the Netherlands. We used the airborne EM measurements in combination with borehole-logging data, electrical conductivity cone penetration tests and groundwater samples to create a 3-D fresh-brackish-saline groundwater distribution of the study area. The EM measurements proved to be an improvement compared to older techniques and provided quality input for the model. With the help of the built 3-D variable-density groundwater model, we removed the remaining inaccuracies of the 3-D chloride field and predicted the effects of three climate scenarios on the groundwater and surface water system. Results showed significant changes in the groundwater system, and gave direction for future water policy. Future research should provide more insight in the improvement of data collection for fresh-brackish-saline groundwater systems as it is of high importance to further improve the quality of the model.

  16. Use of a crop climate modeling system to evaluate climate change adaptation practices: maize yield in East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, N. J.; Alagarswamy, G.; Andresen, J.; Olson, J.; Thornton, P.

    2013-12-01

    Sub Saharan African agriculture is dominated by small-scale farmers and is heavily depend on growing season precipitation. Recent studies indicate that anthropogenic- induced warming including the Indian Ocean sea surface significantly influences precipitation in East Africa. East Africa is a useful region to assess impacts of future climate because of its large rainfall gradient, large percentage of its area being sub-humid or semi-arid, complex climatology and topography, varied soils, and because the population is particularly vulnerable to shifts in climate. Agronomic adaptation practices most commonly being considered include include a shift to short season, drought resistant maize varieties, better management practices especially fertilizer use, and irrigation. The effectiveness of these practices with climate change had not previously been tested. We used the WorldClim data set to represent current climate and compared the current and future climate scenarios of 4 Global Climate Models (GCMs) including a wetter (CCSM) and drier (HadCM3) GCM downscaled to 6 km resolution. The climate data was then used in the process-based CERES maize crop model to simulate the current period (representing 1960- 1990) and change in future maize production (from 2000 to 2050s). The effectiveness of agronomic practices, including short duration maize variety, fertilizer use and irrigation, to reduce projected future yield losses due to climate change were simulated. The GCMs project an increase in maximum temperature during growing season ranging from 1.5 to 3°C. Changes in precipitation were dependent on the GCM, with high variability across different topographies land cover types and elevations. Projected warmer temperatures in the future scenarios accelerated plant development and led to a reduction in growing season length and yields even where moisture was sufficient Maize yield changes in 2050 relative to the historical period were highly varied, in excess of +/- 500 kg

  17. Climate and Energy-Water-Land System Interactions Technical Report to the U.S. Department of Energy in Support of the National Climate Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skaggs, Richard; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Frumhoff, Peter; Lowry, Thomas; Middleton, Richard; Pate, Ron; Tidwell, Vincent C.; Arnold, J. G.; Averyt, Kristen; Janetos, Anthony C.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Rice, Jennie S.; Rose, Steven K.

    2012-03-01

    This report provides a framework to characterize and understand the important elements of climate and energy-water-land (EWL) system interactions. It identifies many of the important issues, discusses our understanding of those issues, and presents a long-term research program research needs to address the priority scientific challenges and gaps in our understanding. Much of the discussion is organized around two discrete case studies with the broad themes of (1) extreme events and (2) regional intercomparisons. These case studies help demonstrate unique ways in which energy-water-land interactions can occur and be influenced by climate.

  18. Hell and High Water: Diminished Septic System Performance in Coastal Regions Due to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Jennifer A; Loomis, George W; Amador, Jose A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change may affect the ability of soil-based onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTS) to treat wastewater in coastal regions of the Northeastern United States. Higher temperatures and water tables can affect treatment by reducing the volume of unsaturated soil and oxygen available for treatment, which may result in greater transport of pathogens, nutrients, and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD5) to groundwater, jeopardizing public and aquatic ecosystem health. The soil treatment area (STA) of an OWTS removes contaminants as wastewater percolates through the soil. Conventional STAs receive wastewater from the septic tank, with infiltration occurring deeper in the soil profile. In contrast, shallow narrow STAs receive pre-treated wastewater that infiltrates higher in the soil profile, which may make them more resilient to climate change. We used intact soil mesocosms to quantify the water quality functions of a conventional and two types of shallow narrow STAs under present climate (PC; 20°C) and climate change (CC; 25°C, 30 cm elevation in water table). Significantly greater removal of BOD5 was observed under CC for all STA types. Phosphorus removal decreased significantly from 75% (PC) to 66% (CC) in the conventional STA, and from 100% to 71-72% in shallow narrow STAs. No fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) were released under PC, whereas up to 17 and 20 CFU 100 mL-1 were released in conventional and shallow narrow STAs, respectively, under CC. Total N removal increased from 14% (PC) to 19% (CC) in the conventional STA, but decreased in shallow narrow STAs, from 6-7% to less than 3.0%. Differences in removal of FCB and total N were not significant. Leaching of N in excess of inputs was also observed in shallow narrow STAs under CC. Our results indicate that climate change can affect contaminant removal from wastewater, with effects dependent on the contaminant and STA type. PMID:27583363

  19. Dependence of the radiative forcing of the climate system on fossil fuel type

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nunez, L. I.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change mitigation strategies are greatly directed towards the reduction of CO2 emissions and other greenhouse gases from fossil fuel combustion to limit warming to 2º C in this century. For example, the Clean Power Plan aims to reduce CO2 emissions from the power sector by 32% of 2005 levels by 2030 by increasing power plant efficiency but also by switching from coal-fired power plants to natural gas-fired power plants. It is important to understand the impact of such fuel switching on climate change. While all fossil fuels emit CO2, they also emit other pollutants with varying effects on climate, health and agriculture. First, The emission of CO2 per joule of energy produced varies significantly between coal, oil and natural gas. Second, the complexity that the co-emitted pollutants add to the perturbations in the climate system necessitates the detangling of radiative forcing for each type of fossil fuel. The historical (1850-2011) net radiative forcing of climate as a function of fuel type (coal, oil, natural gas and biofuel) is reconstructed. The results reveal the significant dependence of the CO2 and the non-CO2 forcing on fuel type. The CO2 forcing per joule of energy is largest for coal. Radiative forcing from the co-emitted pollutants (black carbon, methane, nitrogen oxides, organic carbon, sulfate aerosols) changes the global mean CO2 forcing attributed to coal and oil significantly. For natural gas, the CO2-only radiative forcing from gas is increased by about 60% when the co-emitted pollutants are included.

  20. STUDY OF CLIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE TITU-OGREZENI IRRIGATION SYSTEM PERIMETER BY ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC DEFICIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marin Zamfir

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Our country's climate shows great changes both in time and space. These changes are also reflected on agriculturalproductions that also sometime presents substantial differences from one year to another and from one area to another.Based on statistical analyses on large arrays of years, it results that in Romania, the dry years are in very highproportion going up to 70%.For getting to knowing requirements from water of major agricultural crops, by the study achieved mainly thenecessary dimensioning of water for irrigations using the climate deficit method has been considered.From the chronological sequence analysis of years, under the climatic deficit, the change of this in a positive way thatleads to the need for irrigations is come out. Given the set of climatic parameters, the model that approximates the bestthe evolution tendency as some parametrical equations has been studied. Since 2009, for the next 57 years the trendline of the evolution of climatic deficit is clearly increasing in the months May-August.

  1. Influence of constructive characteristics of a room on the parameters of regulators of automated climatic systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samarin Oleg Dmitrievich

    Full Text Available Currently, the successful development of construction industry depends on the improved energy performance of buildings, structures and facilities, as well as on the quality assurance of the indoor climate. In view of the above, designing and operation of buildings should be aimed at the best (optimal solution of the following objective: to ensure the set-point values of indoor climate serviced by automated climate control systems, against the minimal energy consumption. In regard of its substantive structure, this paper describes the study on the relationship between the individual parameters of indoor thermal stability and the regulatory impact of automatic control systems (ACS. We analyzed the effect of structural room characteristics on the total energy consumption of the airflow processing unit in order to ensure energy saving. The final result is illustrated by numeric simulation with the use of a developed computer program and graphic examples. The proposed method is based on the assumption that the total thermal stability of the «room-ACVS-ACS» system is defined by heat absorption index of a room and the ACS control operation. This follows directly from the back-to-back connection of units corresponding to the room and ACVS in the scheme of automatic indoor climate control. Further study allowed authors to trace the influence of structural characteristics of a room on the total energy consumption needed for air intake treatment. This can be done by applying values of the main walling area. Basing on the developed algorithm, the authors made calculations using the computer program developed in Fortran. As a result a fragments of the program are presented - calculations of the parameters’ values included in the expressions and the total specific energy consumption for heating the air intake during the heating season, under varying room geometry, as well as the graphic illustration of the obtained relationships.

  2. Arctic Hydrology and the role of feedbacks in the climate system (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinzman, L. D.

    2009-12-01

    The effects of a warming climate on the terrestrial regions of the Arctic are already quite apparent and impacts to the hydrologic system are also quite evident. The broadest impacts to the terrestrial arctic regions will result through consequent effects of changing permafrost structure and extent. As the climate differentially warms in summer and winter, the permafrost will become warmer, the active layer (the layer of soil above the permafrost that annually experiences freeze and thaw) will become thicker, the lower boundary of permafrost will become shallower and permafrost extent will decrease in area. These simple structural changes will affect every aspect of the surface water and energy balances and local ecology. Surface moisture and surface temperature are the main driving variables in local terrestrial and atmospheric linkages. Surface temperature is the linchpin in energy fluxes since it links atmospheric thermal gradients, forcing convective heat transfer, with the subsurface thermal gradients, driving conductive heat transfer. Soil moisture exerts a strong influence upon energy fluxes through controls on evaporative heat flux, phase change in thawing of permafrost, and indirect effects on thermal conductivity. In order to understand and predict ecosystem responses to a changing climate and the resultant feedbacks, it is critical to quantify the dynamic interactions of soil moisture and temperature with changes in permafrost as a function of climatic processes, landscape type, and vegetation. In future climate scenarios, the Arctic is expected to be warmer, and experience greater precipitation. With the lengthening of the summer season, however, more of this precipitation will occur as rain. The periods of potential evaporation, and transpiration will also increase. Oddly enough, even now, the Arctic may be considered a desert. The vast wetlands that cover large portions of Alaska, Canada and Siberia exist because permafrost prevents soil moisture and

  3. Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-08-15

    The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

  4. Rapid climatic signal propagation from source to sink in a southern California sediment-routing system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Covault, J.A.; Romans, B.W.; Fildani, A.; McGann, M.; Graham, S.A.

    2010-01-01

    Terrestrial source areas are linked to deep-sea basins by sediment-routing systems, which only recently have been studied with a holistic approach focused on terrestrial and submarine components and their interactions. Here we compare an extensive piston-core and radiocarbon-age data set from offshore southern California to contemporaneous Holocene climate proxies in order to test the hypothesis that climatic signals are rapidly propagated from source to sink in a spatially restricted sediment-routing system that includes the Santa Ana River drainage basin and the Newport deep-sea depositional system. Sediment cores demonstrate that variability in rates of Holocene deep-sea turbidite deposition is related to complex ocean-atmosphere interactions, including enhanced magnitude and frequency of the North American monsoon and El Ni??o-Southern Oscillation cycles, which increased precipitation and fluvial discharge in southern California. This relationship is evident because, unlike many sediment-routing systems, the Newport submarine canyon-and-channel system was consistently linked tothe Santa Ana River,which maintained sediment delivery even during Holocene marine transgression and highstand. Results of this study demonstrate the efficiency of sediment transport and delivery through a spatially restricted, consistently linked routing system and the potential utility of deep-sea turbidite depositional trends as paleoclimate proxies in such settings. ?? 2010 by The University of Chicago.

  5. Power-generation system vulnerability and adaptation to changes in climate and water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Wiberg, David; Leduc, Sylvain; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-04-01

    Hydropower and thermoelectric power together contribute 98% of the world’s electricity generation at present. These power-generating technologies both strongly depend on water availability, and water temperature for cooling also plays a critical role for thermoelectric power generation. Climate change and resulting changes in water resources will therefore affect power generation while energy demands continue to increase with economic development and a growing world population. Here we present a global assessment of the vulnerability of the world’s current hydropower and thermoelectric power-generation system to changing climate and water resources, and test adaptation options for sustainable water-energy security during the twenty-first century. Using a coupled hydrological-electricity modelling framework with data on 24,515 hydropower and 1,427 thermoelectric power plants, we show reductions in usable capacity for 61-74% of the hydropower plants and 81-86% of the thermoelectric power plants worldwide for 2040-2069. However, adaptation options such as increased plant efficiencies, replacement of cooling system types and fuel switches are effective alternatives to reduce the assessed vulnerability to changing climate and freshwater resources. Transitions in the electricity sector with a stronger focus on adaptation, in addition to mitigation, are thus highly recommended to sustain water-energy security in the coming decades.

  6. Modeling the global society-biosphere-climate system. Part 2: computed scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents scenarios computed with IMAGE 2.0, an integrated model of the global environment and climate change. Results are presented for selected aspects of the society-biosphere-climate system including primary energy consumption, emissions of various greenhouse gases, atmospheric concentrations of gases, temperature, precipitation, land cover and other indicators. Included are a 'Conventional Wisdom' scenario, and three variations of this scenario: (i) the Conventional Wisdom scenario is a reference case which is partly based on the input assumptions of the IPCC's IS92a scenario; (ii) the 'Biofuel Crops' scenario assumes that most biofuels will be derived from new cropland; (iii) the 'No Biofuels' scenario examines the sensitivity of the system to the use of biofuels; and (iv) the 'Ocean Realignment' scenario investigates the effect of a large-scale change in ocean circulation on the biosphere and climate. Results of the biofuel scenarios illustrate the importance of examining the impact of biofuels on the full range of greenhouse gases, rather than only CO2. These scenarios also indicate possible side effects of the land requirements for energy crops. The Ocean Realignment scenario shows that an unexpected, low probability event can both enhance the build-up of greenhouse gases, and at the same time cause a temporary cooling of surface air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. However, warming of the atmosphere is only delayed, not avoided. 26 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs

  7. Modeling the impact of large-scale energy conversion systems on global climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are three energy options which could satisfy a projected energy requirement of about 30 TW and these are the solar, nuclear and (to a lesser extent) coal options. Climate models can be used to assess the impact of large scale deployment of these options. The impact of waste heat has been assessed using energy balance models and general circulation models (GCMs). Results suggest that the impacts are significant when the heat imput is very high and studies of more realistic scenarios are required. Energy balance models, radiative-convective models and a GCM have been used to study the impact of doubling the atmospheric CO2 concentration. State-of-the-art models estimate a surface temperature increase of 1.5-3.00C with large amplification near the poles, but much uncertainty remains. Very few model studies have been made of the impact of particles on global climate, more information on the characteristics of particle input are required. The impact of large-scale deployment of solar energy conversion systems has received little attention but model studies suggest that large scale changes in surface characteristics associated with such systems (surface heat balance, roughness and hydrological characteristics and ocean surface temperature) could have significant global climatic effects. (Auth.)

  8. Efficient heat supply and use from an energy-system and climate perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Danestig, Maria

    2009-01-01

    The aim of this thesis is to illustrate whether the heat demand in district heating systems can be seen as a resource that enables efficient energy utilization, how this can be achieved and to discuss consequences of this assumption. Based on the answers to posed research questions and on the studies included in this thesis, it is concluded that the hypothesis “A common system approach for energy supply and heat demand will show climate and economic efficient solutions” is true. In cold-clima...

  9. A systems-based approach to transform climate education in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific islands (USAPI)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sussman, A.; Fletcher, C. H.; Sachs, J. P.

    2011-12-01

    The USAPI has a population of about 1,800,000 people spread across 4.9 million square miles of the Pacific Ocean. The Pacific Islands are characterized by a multitude of indigenous cultures and languages. English is the common language of instruction in all jurisdictions, but is not the language spoken at home for most students outside of Hawai'i. Many USAPI students live considerably below the poverty line. The Pacific Island region is projected to experience some of the most profound negative impacts considerably sooner than other regions. Funded by the National Science Foundation, the Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and honor indigenous cultures. Students and citizens within the region will have the knowledge and skills to advance their and our understanding of climate change, and to adapt to its impacts. PCEP has developed a regional network, tools, and an emerging plan to systemically transform K-14 climate education in the USAPI. More than 50 organizations and networks have joined the partnership. These partners include all of the region's state departments of education, major universities, and community colleges, and a wide range of local partners, particularly conservation organizations. One of PCEP's major tools is general, multidisciplinary K-14 climate science education framework that organizes major underlying concepts and skills within appropriate grade-span progressions. This framework is based largely upon prior national science and climate literacy work and the National Research Council's recent document "A Framework for K-12 Science Education: Practices, Crosscutting Concepts, and Core Ideas." The PCEP climate education framework has an Earth System Science foundation that is directly applicable in all locations, and it also has orientations that are

  10. New counter flow heat exchanger designed for ventilation systems in cold climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kragh, Jesper; Rose, Jørgen; Nielsen, Toke Rammer;

    2007-01-01

    In cold climates, mechanical ventilation systems with highly efficient heat recovery will experience problems with condensing water from the extracted humid indoor air. If the condensed water changes to ice in the heat exchanger, the airflow rate will quickly fall due to the increasing pressure...... problem is therefore desirable. In this paper, the construction and test measurements of a new counter flow heat exchanger designed for cold climates are presented. The developed heat exchanger is capable of continuously defrosting itself without using supplementary heating. Other advantages...... of the developed beat exchanger are low pressure loss, cheap materials and a simple construction. The disadvantage is that the exchanger is big compared with other heat exchangers. In this paper, the new heat exchanger's efficiency is calculated theoretically and measured experimentally. The experiment shows...

  11. Bounding the Role of Black Carbon in the Climate System: a Scientific Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, T. C.; Doherty, S. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Forster, P. M.; Bernsten, T.; DeAngelo, B. J.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, S.; Karcher, B.; Koch, D.; Kinne, S.; Kondo, Y.; Quinn, P. K.; Sarofim, M. C.; Schultz, M. G.; Schulz, M.; Venkataraman, C.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, S.; Bellouin, N.; Guttikunda, S. K.; Hopke, P. K.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Kaiser, J. W.; Klimont, Z.; Lohmann, U.; Schwarz, J. P.; Shindell, D.; Storelvmo, T.; Warren, S. G.; Zender, C. S.

    2013-01-01

    Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg/yr in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)W/sq m. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W/sq m. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W/sq m with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W/sq m. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing

  12. Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, T. C.; Doherty, S. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Forster, P. M.; Berntsen, T.; Deangelo, B. J.; Flanner, M. G.; Ghan, S.; KäRcher, B.; Koch, D.; Kinne, S.; Kondo, Y.; Quinn, P. K.; Sarofim, M. C.; Schultz, M. G.; Schulz, M.; Venkataraman, C.; Zhang, H.; Zhang, S.; Bellouin, N.; Guttikunda, S. K.; Hopke, P. K.; Jacobson, M. Z.; Kaiser, J. W.; Klimont, Z.; Lohmann, U.; Schwarz, J. P.; Shindell, D.; Storelvmo, T.; Warren, S. G.; Zender, C. S.

    2013-06-01

    carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth's climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27) W m-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm

  13. Understanding the systemic nature of cities to improve health and climate change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chapman, Ralph; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Capon, Anthony

    2016-09-01

    Understanding cities comprehensively as systems is a costly challenge and is typically not feasible for policy makers. Nevertheless, focusing on some key systemic characteristics of cities can give useful insights for policy to advance health and well-being outcomes. Moreover, if we take a coevolutionary systems view of cities, some conventional assumptions about the nature of urban development (e.g. the growth in private vehicle use with income) may not stand up. We illustrate this by examining the coevolution of urban transport and land use systems, and institutional change, giving examples of policy implications. At a high level, our concern derives from the need to better understand the dynamics of urban change, and its implications for health and well-being. At a practical level, we see opportunities to use stylised findings about urban systems to underpin policy experiments. While it is now not uncommon to view cities as systems, policy makers appear to have made little use so far of a systems approach to inform choice of policies with consequences for health and well-being. System insights can be applied to intelligently anticipate change - for example, as cities are subjected to increasing natural system reactions to climate change, they must find ways to mitigate and adapt to it. Secondly, systems insights around policy cobenefits are vital for better informing horizontal policy integration. Lastly, an implication of system complexity is that rather than seeking detailed, 'full' knowledge about urban issues and policies, cities would be well advised to engage in policy experimentation to address increasingly urgent health and climate change issues. PMID:27126780

  14. Hydrological Changes in the Climate System from Leaf Responsesto Increasing CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, B.; Dickinson, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    Vegetation is a major component of the climate system because of its controls on the energy and water balance over land. This functioning changes because of the physiological response of leaves to increased CO2. A climate model is used to compare these changes with the climate changes from radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. For this purpose, we use the Community Earth System Model coupled to a slab ocean. Ensemble integrations are done for current and doubled CO2. The consequent reduction of transpiration and net increase of surface radiative heating from reduction in cloudiness increases the temperature over land by a significant fraction of that directly from the radiative warming by CO2. Large-scale atmospheric circulation adjustments result. In particular, over the tropics, a low-level westerly wind anomaly develops associated with reduced geopotential height over land, enhancing moisture transport and convergence, and precipitation increases over the western Amazon, the Congo basin, South Africa, and Indonesia, while over mid-latitudes, land precipitation decreases from reduced evapotranspiration. On average, land precipitation is enhanced by 0.03 mm day-1 (about 19 % of the CO2 radiative forcing induced increase). This increase of land precipitation with decreased ET is an apparent negative feedback, i.e., less ET makes more precipitation. Global precipitation is slightly reduced. Runoff increases associated with both the increased land precipitation and reduced evapotranspiration. Examining the consistency of the variations among ensemble members shows that vegetation feedbacks on precipitation are more robust over the tropics and in mid to high latitudes than over the subtropics where vegetation is sparse and the internal climate variability has a larger influence.

  15. The trophic responses of two different rodent–vector–plague systems to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lei; Schmid, Boris V.; Liu, Jun; Si, Xiaoyan; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Zhang, Zhibin

    2015-01-01

    Plague, the causative agent of three devastating pandemics in history, is currently a re-emerging disease, probably due to climate change and other anthropogenic changes. Without understanding the response of plague systems to anthropogenic or climate changes in their trophic web, it is unfeasible to effectively predict years with high risks of plague outbreak, hampering our ability for effective prevention and control of the disease. Here, by using surveillance data, we apply structural equation modelling to reveal the drivers of plague prevalence in two very different rodent systems: those of the solitary Daurian ground squirrel and the social Mongolian gerbil. We show that plague prevalence in the Daurian ground squirrel is not detectably related to its trophic web, and that therefore surveillance efforts should focus on detecting plague directly in this ecosystem. On the other hand, plague in the Mongolian gerbil is strongly embedded in a complex, yet understandable trophic web of climate, vegetation, and rodent and flea densities, making the ecosystem suitable for more sophisticated low-cost surveillance practices, such as remote sensing. As for the trophic webs of the two rodent species, we find that increased vegetation is positively associated with higher temperatures and precipitation for both ecosystems. We furthermore find a positive association between vegetation and ground squirrel density, yet a negative association between vegetation and gerbil density. Our study thus shows how past surveillance records can be used to design and improve existing plague prevention and control measures, by tailoring them to individual plague foci. Such measures are indeed highly needed under present conditions with prevailing climate change. PMID:25540277

  16. A Prototype Indicators System for U.S. Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A.; Gerst, M.; Lloyd, A.; Wolfinger, J. F.; Reyes, J. J.; Anderson, S. M.; Pouyat, R. V.

    2015-12-01

    Indicators are observations or calculations that are used to systematically report or forecast social and biophysical conditions over time. When the purpose of indicators is to, in part, provide complex scientific information that is understood by non-scientists and included in decision processes, the choice of indicators requires a structured process that includes co-production among a range of actors, including scientists, decision-makers, and a range of stakeholders. Here we describe recommendations on a vision and a prototype created for an indicators system, we term the National Climate Indicators System (NCIS). The goal of the NCIS is to create a system of physical, natural, and societal indicators to communicate and inform decisions about climate changes, impacts, vulnerabilities, and responses. The process of generating the indicator system involved input from over 200 subject-matter experts. Organized into 13 teams, experts created conceptual models of their respective sectors to generate an initial recommended set of indicators. A subset of indicators, which could be immediately implemented, were prototyped for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) a Federal program that coordinates and supports integration of global change research across the government. USGCRP reviewed the recommendations (Kenney et al., 2014) and prototypes provided by the scientific experts, and recently launched 14 indicators as proof-of-concept in support of a sustained National Climate Assessment and to solicit feedback from the users. Social science research is currently being undertaken in order to evaluate how well the prototype indicators communicate science to non-scientists, the usability of indicator system portal by scientists and decision-makers, and the development of information visualization guidelines to improve visual communication effectiveness. The goal of such efforts would be to provide input into the development of a more comprehensive USGCRP indicator

  17. The Coastal Hazard Wheel system for coastal multi-hazard assessment & management in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Appelquist, Lars Rosendahl; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the complete Coastal Hazard Wheel (CHW) system, developed for multi-hazard-assessment and multi-hazard-management of coastal areas worldwide under a changing climate. The system is designed as a low-tech tool that can be used in areas with limited data availability and...... institutional capacity and is therefore especially suited for applications in developing countries. The CHW constitutes a key for determining the characteristics of a particular coastline, its hazard profile and possible management options, and the system can be used for local, regional and national hazard...... screening and management. The system is developed to assess the main coastal hazards in a single process and covers the hazards of ecosystem disruption, gradual inundation, salt water intrusion, erosion and flooding. The system was initially presented in 2012 and based on a range of test-applications and...

  18. - A case study for sessile oak (Quercus petraea) distribution - Preliminarly results of a Decision Support System for climate impact analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulyás, Krisztina; Gálos, Borbála; Berki, Imre; Czimber, Kornél

    2014-05-01

    Rainfed sectors of forestry are threatened by projected climate change especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where precipitation is the limiting factor of production and ecosystem stability. To initiate preparation for frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses, a Decision Support System is under development, which provides GIS-supported information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options regarding climate change impacts. The case study will focus on the following aspects: • For the time period 1961-2010, precipitation and temperature means and extreme events have been analyzed in the Carpathian basin, using gridded station data from the EU-project CARPATCLIM (http://www.carpatclim-eu.org). • The climate indicators have been identified that characterize and determine the distribution, healty status and vitality of sessile oak. • As a product of the Decision Support System a distribution model is under development, which describes the connection between climate conditions and the distribution of sessile oak. The case study shows, how climate data can be used for impact analyses in the forestry sector. Applying different climate change scenarios, the expected distribution of tree species can be simulated. Acknowledgements: The development of the Decision Support System "Agrárklíma" is supported by TÁMOP-4.2.2.A-11/1/KONV and 4.2.2.B-10/1-2010-0018 "Talentum" joint EU-national research projects. Keywords: climate change, decision support system, distribution model, sessile oak

  19. Introduction and systematic assessment for IAP numerical annual climate prediction system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHEN Hong; LIN Zhaohui; ZENG Qingcun

    2003-01-01

    The IAP numerical annual climate prediction system has been presented in this paper. In order to evaluate this annual prediction system, annual ensemble hindcast experiments over a 21-year period from 1980 to 2000 have been done. Systematic assessment shows that this annual prediction system has higher predictability for summer climate in tropic than in extra-tropic area, and higher predictabilities over ocean than over land for the fields of precipitation, sea level pressure and surface air temperature; for 500 hPa geopotential height field, the predictability assuming a zonal distribution decreases from tropic to middle-high latitudes, and in China it is the highest among those of all fields. Correlation analysis shows that the prediction ability of IAP annual prediction system to summer temperature is higher than that to precipitation, and the prediction skill can be remarkably improved by the correction system. Furthermore, the comparison between annual and extraseasonal hindcasts indicates that precipitation hindcasted extraseasonally is better than that done annually, and the major discrepancy exists in middle-high latitudes.

  20. Future consequences and challenges for dairy cow production systems arising from climate change in Central Europe - a review

    OpenAIRE

    Gauly, M.; Bollwein, H; Breves, G.; Brügemann, K; Dänicke, S; Daş, G.; Demeler, J; Hansen, H.; Isselstein, J; König, S.; Lohölter, M.; Martinsohn, M; Meyer, U.; Potthoff, M.; Sanker, C.

    2013-01-01

    It is well documented that global warming is unequivocal. Dairy production systems are considered as important sources of greenhouse gas emissions; however, little is known about the sensitivity and vulnerability of these production systems themselves to climate warming. This review brings different aspects of dairy cow production in Central Europe into focus, with a holistic approach to emphasize potential future consequences and challenges arising from climate change. With the current under...

  1. Towards a climate-driven dengue decision support system for Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Cazelles, Bernard; Paul, Richard; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Environmental explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to

  2. A Fast Version of LASG/IAP Climate System Model and Its 1000-year Control Integration

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHOU Tianjun; WU Bo; WEN Xinyu; LI Lijuan; WANG Bin

    2008-01-01

    A fast version of the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geo- physical Fluid Dynamics (LASG)/Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP) climate system model is briefly documented. The fast coupled model employs a low resolution version of the atmospheric component Grid Atmospheric Model of IAP/LASG (GAMIL), with the other parts of the model, namely an oceanic com- ponent LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model (LICOM), land component Common Land Model (CLM), and sea ice component from National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (NCAR CCSM2), as the same as in the standard version of LASG/IAP Flexible Global Ocean Atmosphere Land System model (FGOALS_g). The parameterizatious of physical and dynamical processes of the at- mospheric component in the fast version are identical to the standard version, although some parameter values are different. However, by virtue of reduced horizontal resolution and increased time-step of the most time-consuming atmospheric component, it runs faster by a factor of 3 and can serve as a useful tool for long- term and large-ensemble integrations. A 1000-year control simulation of the present-day climate has been completed without flux adjustments. The final 600 years of this simulation has virtually no trends in global mean sea surface temperatures and is recommended for internal variability studies. Several aspects of the control simulation's mean climate and variability axe evaluated against the observational or reanalysis data. The strengths and weaknesses of the control simulation are evaluated. The mean atmospheric circulation is well simulated, except in high latitudes. The Asian-Australian monsoonal meridional cell shows realistic features, however, an artificial rainfall center is located to the eastern periphery of the Tibetan Plateau persists throughout the year. The mean bias of SST resembles that of the standard version, appearing as a "double ITCZ" (Inter

  3. Improving Sea Ice Prediction in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collow, T. W.; Wang, W.; Kumar, A.

    2015-12-01

    Skillful prediction of Arctic sea ice is important for the wide variety of interests focused in that region. However, the current operational system used by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center does not adequately predict the seasonal climatology of sea ice extent and maintains too high sea ice coverage across the Arctic. It is thought that the primary reasoning for this lies in the initialization of sea ice thickness. Experiments are carried out using the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) model with an improved sea ice thickness initialization from the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Analysis and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) rather than the default Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) sea ice thickness data. All other variables are initialized from CFSR. In addition, physics parameterizations are adjusted to better simulate real world conditions. Here we focus on hindcasts initialized from 2005-2014. Although the seasonal cycle of sea ice is generally better captured in runs that use PIOMAS sea ice thickness initialization, local sea ice freeze in early winter in the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea is delayed when both sea ice thickness configurations are used. In addition ice freeze in the North Atlantic is more pronounced than in the observations. This shows that simply changing initial sea ice thickness is not enough to improve forecasts for all locations. Modeled atmospheric and oceanic parameters are investigated including the radiation budget, land surface temperature advection, and sub-surface oceanic heat flow to diagnose possible reasons for the modeling deficiencies, and further modifications to the model will be discussed.

  4. Enforcing the climate regime: Game theory and the Marrakesh Accords

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hovi, Jon

    2002-07-01

    The article reviews basic insights about compliance and ''hard'' enforcement that can be derived from various non-cooperative equilibrium concepts and evaluates the Marrakesh Accords in light of these insights. Five different notions of equilibrium are considered - the Nash equilibrium, the sub game perfect equilibrium, the re negotiation proof equilibrium, the coalition proof equilibrium and the perfect Bayesian equilibrium. These various types of equilibrium have number of implications for effective enforcement: 1. Consequences of non-compliance should be more than proportionate. 2. To be credible punishment needs to take place in the Pareto frontier, rather than by reversion to some suboptimal state. 3. An effective enforcement system must be able to curb collective as well as individual incentives to cheat. 4. A fully transparent enforcement regime could in fact turn out to be detrimental for compliance levels. It is concluded that constructing an effective system for ''hard'' enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol is a formidable task that has only partially been accomplished by the Marrakesh Accords. A possible explanation is that the design of a compliance system for the climate regime involved a careful balancing of the desire to minimise non-compliance against other important considerations. (Author)

  5. Enforcing the climate regime: Game theory and the Marrakesh Accords

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The article reviews basic insights about compliance and ''hard'' enforcement that can be derived from various non-cooperative equilibrium concepts and evaluates the Marrakesh Accords in light of these insights. Five different notions of equilibrium are considered - the Nash equilibrium, the sub game perfect equilibrium, the re negotiation proof equilibrium, the coalition proof equilibrium and the perfect Bayesian equilibrium. These various types of equilibrium have number of implications for effective enforcement: 1. Consequences of non-compliance should be more than proportionate. 2. To be credible punishment needs to take place in the Pareto frontier, rather than by reversion to some suboptimal state. 3. An effective enforcement system must be able to curb collective as well as individual incentives to cheat. 4. A fully transparent enforcement regime could in fact turn out to be detrimental for compliance levels. It is concluded that constructing an effective system for ''hard'' enforcement of the Kyoto Protocol is a formidable task that has only partially been accomplished by the Marrakesh Accords. A possible explanation is that the design of a compliance system for the climate regime involved a careful balancing of the desire to minimise non-compliance against other important considerations. (Author)

  6. Experimental and numerical evaluation of a solar passive cooling system under hot and humid climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rincon, Jose; Almao, Nastia [Universidad del Zulia, Lab. de Simulacion Computacional, Zulia (Venezuela); Gonzalez, Eduardo [Universidad del Zulia, Inst. de Investigaciones de la Facultad de Arquitectura, Zulia (Venezuela)

    2001-07-01

    The thermal performance of a solar passive cooling system (SPCS) under a hot and humid climate is experimentally and numerically evaluated. The experimental data were obtained from two full scale cells, with identical walls, but different roof configurations. One cell has a highly-insulated roof and the other has an SPCS incorporated consisting of a thermal mass (water), which is cooled by evaporation and long wave nocturnal radiation. The study was conducted taking into account the local climatic conditions of Maracaibo, a tropical city located in Venezuela. The numerical evaluation was accomplished using the computational code 'EVITA' which is based on the finite volume approach with high order bounded treatment of the convective terms. A PISO-like solution algorithm is used to solve the transient form of the continuity, momentum and energy equations. It has been demonstrated experimentally and numerically that under a hot and humid climate, it is possible to keep the indoor temperature below the outdoor temperature, using a passive cooling technique of a roof pond. The numerical results obtained using the model have demonstrated that the computational code used is a suitable cost-efficient alternative for the thermal performance evaluation of SPCS. (Author)

  7. Modeling of the climate system and of its response to a greenhouse effect increase

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The anthropic disturbance of the Earth's greenhouse effect is already visible and will enhance in the coming years or decades. In front of the rapidity and importance of the global warming effect, the socio-economical management of this change will rise problems and must be studied by the scientific community. At the modeling level, finding a direct strategy for the validation of climate models is not easy: many uncertainties exist because energy transformations take place at a low level and several processes take place at the same time. The variability observed at the seasonal, inter-annual or paleo- scales allows to validate the models at the process level but not the evolution of the whole system. The management of these uncertainties is an integral part of the global warming problem. Thus, several scenarios can be proposed and their risk of occurrence must be estimated. This paper presents first the greenhouse effect, the climatic changes during geologic times, the anthropic disturbance of the greenhouse effect, the modeling of climate and the forecasting of its evolution. (J.S.)

  8. Crop yield network and its response to changes in climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokozawa, M.

    2013-12-01

    Crop failure (reduction in crop yield) due to extreme weather and climate change could lead to unstable food supply, reflecting the recent globalization in world agricultural production. Specifically, in several major production countries producing large amount of main cereal crops, wheat, maize, soybean and rice, abrupt crop failures in wide area are significantly serious for world food supply system. We examined the simultaneous changes in crop yield in USA, China and Brazil, in terms of the changes in climate system such as El Nino, La nina and so on. In this study, we defined a crop yield networks, which represent the correlation between yearly changes in crop yields and climate resources during the crop growing season in two regions. The climate resources during the crop growing season represents here the average temperature and the accumulated precipitation during the crop growing season of a target crop. As climate data, we used a reanalysis climate data JRA-25 (Japan Meteorological Agency). The yearly changes in crop yields are based on a gridded crop productivity database with a resolution of 1.125 degree in latitude/longitude (Iizumi et al. 2013). It is constructed from the agriculture statistics issued by local administrative bureau in each country, which covers the period during 1982 to 2006 (25 years). For the regions being lack of data, the data was interpolated referring to NPP values estimated by satellite data. Crop yield network is constructed as follows: (1) let DY(i,y) be negative difference in crop yield of year y from the trend yield at grid i; (2) define the correlation of the differences Cij(y) = DY(i, y) DY(j, y); (3) if Cij(y) > Q, then grids i and j are mutually linked for a threshold value Q. Links between grids make a crop yield network. It is here noted that only negative differences are taken into account because we focused on the lean year cases (i.e. yields of both grids were lower than those in the long-term trend). The arrays of

  9. Advanced Extended Plate and Beam Wall System in a Cold-Climate House

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mallay, Dave [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Wiehagen, Joseph [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States); Kochkin, Vladimir [Home Innovation Research Labs, Upper Marlboro, MD (United States)

    2016-01-29

    This report presents the design and evaluation of an innovative wall system. This highly insulated (high-R) light-frame wall system for use above grade in residential buildings is referred to as Extended Plate & Beam (EP&B). The EP&B design is the first of its kind to be featured in a new construction test house (NCTH) for the DOE Building America program. The EP&B wall design integrates standard building methods and common building products to construct a high-R wall that minimizes transition risks and costs to builders. The EP&B design combines optimized framing with integrated rigid foam sheathing to increase the wall system's R-value and reduce thermal bridging. The foam sheathing is installed between the wall studs and structural wood sheathing. The exterior wood sheathing is attached directly to a framing extension formed by extended top and bottom plates. The exterior wood sheathing can dry to the exterior and provides bracing, a clear drainage plane and flashing surface for window and door openings, and a nailing surface for siding attachment. With support of the DOE Building America program, Home Innovation Research Labs partnered with Lancaster County Career and Technology Center (LCCTC) to build a NCTH in Lancaster, PA to demonstrate the EP&B wall design in a cold climate (IECC climate zone 5A). The results of the study confirmed the benefits of the systems and the viability of its integration into the house construction process.

  10. Exterior Insulation Implications for Heating and Cooling Systems in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herk, Anastasia [IBACOS Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Poerschke, Andrew [IBACOS Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2015-04-09

    The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is interested in finding cost-effective solutions for deep energy retrofits (DERs) related to exterior wall insulation in a cold climate, with targets of 50% peak load reduction and 50% space conditioning energy savings. The U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, IBACOS, in collaboration with GreenHomes America, Inc. (GHA), was contracted by NYSERDA to research exterior wall insulation solutions. In addition to exterior wall insulation, the strategies included energy upgrades where needed in the attic, mechanical and ventilation systems, basement, band joist, walls, and floors. Under Building America, IBACOS is studying the impact of a “thermal enclosure” DER on the sizing of the space conditioning system and the occupant comfort if the thermal capacity of the heating and cooling system is dramatically downsized without any change in the existing heating and cooling distribution system (e.g., size, tightness and supply outlet configurations).

  11. Exterior Insulation Implications for Heating and Cooling Systems in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herk, Anastasia; Poerschke, Andrew

    2015-04-01

    The New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) is interested in finding cost-effective solutions for deep energy retrofits (DERs) related to exterior wall insulation in a cold climate, with targets of 50% peak load reduction and 50% space conditioning energy savings. The U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, IBACOS, in collaboration with GreenHomes America, Inc. (GHA), was contracted by NYSERDA to research exterior wall insulation solutions. In addition to exterior wall insulation, the strategies included energy upgrades where needed in the attic, mechanical and ventilation systems, basement, band joist, walls, and floors. Under Building America, IBACOS is studying the impact of a “thermal enclosure” DER on the sizing of the space conditioning system and the occupant comfort if the thermal capacity of the heating and cooling system is dramatically downsized without any change in the existing heating and cooling distribution system (e.g., size, tightness and supply outlet configurations).

  12. A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fedorov, Alexey V. [Yale University; Fedorov, Alexey

    2015-01-14

    The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth system models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.

  13. Subseasonal features of the Asian summer monsoon in the NCEP climate forecast system

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Song YANG; WEN Min; R Wayne HIGGINS

    2008-01-01

    The operational climate forecast system (CFS) of the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction provides climate predic-tions over the world, and CFS products are becoming an important source of information for regional climate predictions in many Asian countries where monsoon climate dominates. Recent studies have shown that, on monthly-to-seasonal time-scales, the CFS is highly skillful in simulating and predicting the variability of the Asian monsoon. The higher-frequency variability of the Asian summer monsoon in the CFS is analyzed, using output from a version with a spectral triangular truncation of 126 waves in horizon-tal and 64 sigma layers in vertical, focusing on synoptic, quasi-biweekly, and intraseasonal time-scales. The onset processes of different regional monsoon components were investigated within Asia. Although the CFS generally overestimates variability of mon-soon on these time-scales, it successfully captures many major features of the variance patterns, especially for the synoptic time-scale. The CFS also captures the timing of summer monsoon onsets over India and the Indo-China Peninsula. However, it encoun-ters difficulties in simulating the onset of the South China Sea monsoon. The success and failure of the CFS in simulating the onset of monsoon precipitation can also be seen from the associated features of simulated atmospheric circulation processes. Overall, the CFS is capable of simulating the synoptic-to-intraseasonal variability of the Asian summer monsoon with skills. As for seasonal-to-interannual time-scales shown previously, the model is expected to possess a potential for skillful predictions of the high-frequencyvariability of the Asian monsoon.

  14. Collaborative Proposal: Transforming How Climate System Models are Used: A Global, Multi-Resolution Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Estep, Donald

    2013-04-15

    Despite the great interest in regional modeling for both weather and climate applications, regional modeling is not yet at the stage that it can be used routinely and effectively for climate modeling of the ocean. The overarching goal of this project is to transform how climate models are used by developing and implementing a robust, efficient, and accurate global approach to regional ocean modeling. To achieve this goal, we will use theoretical and computational means to resolve several basic modeling and algorithmic issues. The first task is to develop techniques for transitioning between parameterized and high-fidelity regional ocean models as the discretization grid transitions from coarse to fine regions. The second task is to develop estimates for the error in scientifically relevant quantities of interest that provide a systematic way to automatically determine where refinement is needed in order to obtain accurate simulations of dynamic and tracer transport in regional ocean models. The third task is to develop efficient, accurate, and robust time-stepping schemes for variable spatial resolution discretizations used in regional ocean models of dynamics and tracer transport. The fourth task is to develop frequency-dependent eddy viscosity finite element and discontinuous Galerkin methods and study their performance and effectiveness for simulation of dynamics and tracer transport in regional ocean models. These four projects share common difficulties and will be approach using a common computational and mathematical toolbox. This is a multidisciplinary project involving faculty and postdocs from Colorado State University, Florida State University, and Penn State University along with scientists from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The completion of the tasks listed within the discussion of the four sub-projects will go a long way towards meeting our goal of developing superior regional ocean models that will transform how climate system models are used.

  15. A Spatial Extrapolation Approach to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resource Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pina, J.; Tilmant, A.; Anctil, F.

    2015-12-01

    The typical approach to assess climate change impacts on water resources systems is based on a vertical integration/coupling of models: GCM models are run to project future precipitations and temperatures, which are then downscaled and used as inputs to hydrologic models whose outputs are processed by water systems models. From a decision-making point of view, this top-down vertical approach presents some challenges. For example, since the range of uncertainty that can be explored with GCM is limited, researchers are relying on ensembles to enlarge the spread, making the modeling approach even more demanding in terms of computation time and resource. When a particular water system must be analyzed, the question is to know whether this computationally intensive vertical approach is necessary in the first place or if we could extrapolate projections available in neighboring systems to feed the water system model? This would be equivalent to a horizontal approach. The proposed study addresses this question by comparing the performance of a water resource system under future climate conditions using the vertical and horizontal approaches. The methodology is illustrated with the hydropower system of the Gatineau River Basin in Quebec, Canada. Vertically obtained hydrologic projections available in those river basins are extrapolated and used as inputs to a stochastic multireservoir optimization model. Two different extrapolation techniques are tested. The first one simply relies on the ratios between the drainage areas. The second exploits the covariance structure found in historical flow data throughout the region. The analysis of the simulation results reveals that the annual and weekly energy productions of the system derived from the horizontal approach are statistically equivalent to those obtained with the vertical one, regardless of the extrapolation technique used.

  16. CISBAT 2005 proceedings. Renewables in a changing climate - Innovation in building envelopes and environmental systems; CISBAT 2005 proceedings. Energies renouvelables et climat - Enveloppes et systemes environnementaux innovatifs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scartezzini, J. L. (ed.)

    2005-07-01

    These proceedings include the contributions presented at the 2005 CISBAT conference, held in Lausanne, Switzerland. Hosted by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL) in Lausanne and jointly organised by the Solar Energy and Buildings Physics Laboratory at the EPFL, Cambridge University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), this international conference looked at 'Innovation in building envelopes and environmental systems'. Along with three keynote presentations on climate change, the use of renewables in the European Union and Swiss policies on solar energy, these 632-page conference proceedings include the conference's 106 presentations grouped in 10 sections. These cover the following topics: Design and renovation of building envelopes (33 contributions); solar collectors (16 contributions); active and passive cooling (9 contributions); indoor environment quality and health (10 contributions); optimisation of daylighting and electric lighting (5 contributions); advanced building control systems (2 contributions); environmental impacts of construction (4 contributions); networks and decentralised energy production (1 contribution); sustainable urban development (12 contributions) and software and new information technologies (14 contributions). Organised each second year, the two-day CISBAT international conference 2005 attracted more than 200 participants from all over the world.

  17. Feedbacks between climate, CO2 and N2O quantified by a fully coupled Earth system model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracher, D.; Reick, C. H.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is evoked by an anthropogenic increase of green house gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, induced by direct emissions from industrial processes or indirectly due to human impacts on ecosystems. Those indirect GHG emissions are strongly influenced by climatic conditions implying several feedback loops in the climate - carbon (C) - nitrogen (N) system. In our study we aim at quantifying the climate - nitrous oxide (N2O) feedback strength in comparison to other feedback mechanisms by applying an Earth system model with explicit representation of interactive N2O in the atmosphere-land-ocean system. Beside the feedbacks emerging due to the temperature sensitivity of biogenic CO2 and N2O emissions, another feedback addressed arises from additional inter-linkages between climate and C and N cycles. Future increased atmospheric CO2 leads to enhanced primary productivity ('CO2 fertilization') causing changes in N availability in the different land and ocean ecosystems. As N2O emissions are driven by availability of N, increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations will impact the climate system also via modifications in N2O emissions. Those changes in N2O emissions will feed back to the climate and will hence also modify the natural biogenic release of CO2 into the atmosphere. This and other associated feedbacks are quantified by applying MPI-ESM, the Earth system model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. MPI-ESM is an atmosphere and ocean global circulation model with model components for land and ocean biogeochemistry. For both CO2 and N2O, land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere exchange as well as atmospheric transport are simulated explicitly. Hence, different feedback components in the climate-C-N system can be quantified by cutting artificially single feedback pathways in the model.

  18. Improving the cost-effectiveness of IRS with climate informed health surveillance systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomson Madeleine C

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This paper examines how the cost-effectiveness of IRS varies depending on the severity of transmission and level of programme coverage and how efficiency could be improved by incorporating climate information into decision making for malaria control programmes as part of an integrated Malaria Early Warning and Response System (MEWS. Methods A climate driven model of malaria transmission was used to simulate cost-effectiveness of alternative IRS coverage levels over six epidemic and non-epidemic years. Decision rules for a potential MEWS system that triggers different IRS coverage are described. The average and marginal cost per case averted with baseline IRS coverage (24% and under varying IRS coverage levels (50%, 75% and 100% were calculated. Results Average cost-effectiveness of 24% coverage varies dramatically between years, from US$108 per case prevented in low transmission to US$0.42 in epidemic years. Similarly for higher coverage (24–100% cost per case prevented is far higher in low than high transmission years ($108–$267 to $0.88–$2.26. Discussion Efficiency and health benefit gains could be achieved by implementing MEWS that provides timely, accurate information. Evidence from southern Africa, (especially Botswana supports this. Conclusion Advance knowledge of transmission severity can help managers make coverage decisions which optimise resource use and exploit efficiency gains if a fully integrated MEWS is in place alongside a health system with sufficient flexibility to modify control plans in response to information. More countries and programmes should be supported to use the best available evidence and science to integrate climate informed MEWS into decision making within malaria control programmes.

  19. Populus Responses to Edaphic and Climatic Cues: Emerging Evidence from Systems Biology Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wullschleger, Stan D [ORNL; Weston, David [ORNL; Davis, John M [University of Florida

    2009-01-01

    The emergence of Populus as a model system for tree biology continues to be driven by a community of scientists dedicated to developing the resources needed to undertake genetic and functional genomic studies in this genus. As a result, understanding the molecular processes that underpin the growth and development of cottonwood, aspen, and hybrid poplar has steadily increased over the last several decades. Recently, our ability to examine the basic mechanisms whereby trees respond to a changing climate and resource limitations has benefited greatly from the sequencing of the P. trichocarpa genome. This landmark event has laid a solid foundation upon which biologists can now quantify, in breathtaking and unprecedented detail, the diversity of genes, proteins, and metabolites that govern the growth and development of some of the longest living and tallest growing organisms on Earth. Although the challenges likely to be encountered by scientists who work with trees are many, recent literature provides a few examples where a systems approach, one that focuses on integrating transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic analyses, is beginning to provide insights into the molecular-scale response of poplars to their climatic and edaphic environment. In this review, our objectives are to look at evidence from studies that examine the molecular response of poplar to edaphic and climatic cues and highlight instances where two or more omic-scale measurements confirm and hopefully expand our inferences about mechanisms contributing to observed patterns of response. Based on conclusions drawn from these studies, we propose that three requirements will be essential as systems biology in poplar moves to reveal unique insights. These include use of genetically-defined individuals (e.g., pedigrees or transgenics) in studies; incorporation of modeling as a complement to transcriptomic, proteomic and metabolomic data; and inclusion of whole-tree and stand-level phenotypes to place

  20. Nature–Culture Relations: Early Globalization, Climate Changes, and System Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sing C. Chew

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Globalization has been on everyone’s lips in light of the contemporary conditions. It has been viewed mostly as a stage reached as a result of long-term societal changes over the course of world history. For us, globalization has been an ongoing process for at least the last 5000 years. Little attention has been paid to the socioeconomic and natural processes that led to the current transformation. With the exception of historical sociologists, there is less interest in examining the long-term past as it is often assumed that the past has nothing to teach us, and it is the future that we have to turn our intellectual gaze. This paper will argue the opposite. We believe a long-term tracing of the socioeconomic and political processes of the making of the modern world will allow us to have a more incisive understanding of the current trajectory of world development and transformations. To plead our case, we outline the emergence of the first Eurasian World Economy linking seven regions (Europe, the Arabian Peninsula, East Africa, the Persian Gulf, Central Asia, South Asia, Ceylon, Southeast Asia, and China of the world, with the exception of the Americas, starting as early as 200 BC, and the sequence of structural crises and transformations (trading networks and commodities that has circumscribed the structures and trends of the current global system. Such consideration in our view is limited if we do not also include the relations between social systems and Nature, and the rhythms of the climate. For the latter, an awareness of the natural rhythms of the climate as well as human induced changes or climate forcing have triggered system-wide level collapses during certain early historical periods.

  1. The carbon cycle in the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS-ESM1) – Part 1: Model description and pre-industrial simulation

    OpenAIRE

    R. M. Law; Ziehn, T.; Matear, R. J.; Lenton, A.; Chamberlain, M. A.; L. E. Stevens; Y. P. Wang; Srbinovsky, J.; Bi, D.; Yan, H; P. F. Vohralik

    2015-01-01

    Earth System Models (ESMs) that incorporate carbon-climate feedbacks represent the present state of the art in climate modelling. Here, we describe the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)-ESM1 that combines existing ocean and land carbon models into the physical climate model to simulate exchanges of carbon between the land, atmosphere and ocean. The land carbon model can optionally include both nitrogen and ...

  2. The farming system sensibility of the Normandy in connection with the Climatic Change (2000-2100)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Gouée, Patrick; Cantat, Olivier; Bensaïd, Abdelkrim; Savouret, Edwige

    2010-05-01

    The French agricultural economy is closely connected with weather-climatic conditions. For example, dryness caused by the heat-wave of 2003 seriously affected the vegetation leading to a significant slowdown of photosynthetic activity. This resulted in logical decrease of agricultural production, in particular for arable lands and fodders. The Global warming that has begun at the end of the 19th century and seems to continue and even intensify during the 21st century (GIEC, 2007) arises a question of farming system sensibility when faced with Climate Change in the future. In France, recent studies (Cloppet and al, 2009) have conducted to the probable climate features spatialization on the national territory according to different scenarios. Whatever the scenario considered, it seems that the present Norman climate type is going to disappear by the end of century to be supplanted by a type of weather influenced by raising evapotranspiration, minimal and maximum temperatures as well as a raising speed of wind and solar radiation. Globally, this could emphasize agriculture soil dryness negative impact on large cereal land and pastures production (Butault, 2009, Ruget & Brisson, 2007). However, this climatic evolution could bring some production gain when the available water content of soils allows preventing or strongly limiting the hydrous stress emergence. For the current period and horizon 2100, according to the scenario A1B of the GIEC, the evaluation and the mapping with fine spatial resolution of this pedo-climatic indicator present a capital stake to appreciate the sensitivity of the agriculture of the Normandy in connection with the climatic evolution announced for the end of the 21st century. This exploratory work has been undertaken for the departmental territory of Calvados (5500 km²). For that purpose, it has been necessary beforehand to work out a precise mapping of soils on the basis of 7514 soil boreholes. The treatment of the soil database has allowed

  3. An Enhanced Engineering Perspective of Global Climate Systems and Statistical Formulation of Terrestrial CO2 Exchanges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dai, Yuanshun [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Baek, Seung H. [Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. Korea; Garcia-Diza, Alberto [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Tsui, Kwok [Georgia Institute of Technology; Zhuang, Jie [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK); Yang, Bai [ORNL

    2012-01-01

    This paper designs a comprehensive approach based on the engineering machine/system concept, to model, analyze, and assess the level of CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems, which is an important factor in understanding changes in global climate. The focus of this article is on spatial patterns and on the correlation between levels of CO2 fluxes and a variety of influencing factors in eco-environments. The engineering/machine concept used is a system protocol that includes the sequential activities of design, test, observe, and model. This concept is applied to explicitly include various influencing factors and interactions associated with CO2 fluxes. To formulate effective models of a large and complex climate system, this article introduces a modeling technique that will be referred to as Stochastic Filtering Analysis of Variance (SFANOVA). The CO2 flux data observed from some sites of AmeriFlux are used to illustrate and validate the analysis, prediction and globalization capabilities of the proposed engineering approach and the SF-ANOVA technology. The SF-ANOVA modeling approach was compared to stepwise regression, ridge regression, and neural networks. The comparison indicated that the proposed approach is a valid and effective tool with similar accuracy and less complexity than the other procedures.

  4. Analysis of a Solar Cooling System for Climatic Conditions of Five Different Cities of Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Mujahid Rafique

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Air high in humidity leads to uncomfortable conditions and promotes the growth of different fungi and bacteria, which may cause health problems. The control of moisture content in the air using traditional air conditioning techniques is not a suitable option due to large consumption of primary energy and hence emission of greenhouse gases. The evaporative cooling technology is a cost effective and eco-friendly alternative but can provide thermal comfort conditions only under low humidity conditions. However, the evaporative cooling method can be used effectively in conjunction with desiccant dehumidifiers for better control of humidity. Such systems can control the temperature and humidity of the air independently and can effectively utilize the low-grade thermal energy resources. In this paper, the theoretical analysis of desiccant based evaporative cooling systems is carried out for five cities in Saudi Arabia (Jeddah, Jazan, Riyadh, Hail, and Dhahran. It has been observed that the coefficient of performance (COP of the system varies from 0.275 to 0.476 for different locations. The water removal capacity of the desiccant wheel is at its maximum for the climatic conditions of Jazan and at its minimum for Hail. The effect of climatic conditions of five cities on regeneration temperature, air mass flow rate, and potential of solar energy has been evaluated using RET Screen software.

  5. Evaluation and first forecasts of the German Climate Forecast System 1 (GCFS1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fröhlich, Kristina; Baehr, Johanna; Müller, Wolfgang; Bunzel, Felix; Pohlmann, Holger; Dobrynin, Mikhail

    2016-04-01

    We present the near-operational seasonal forecast system GCFS1 (German Climate Forecast System version 1), based on the CMIP5 version of the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM-LR. For GCFS1 we also present a detailed assessment on the predictive skill of the model. GCFS1 has been developed in cooperation between the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, University of Hamburg and German Meteorological Service (DWD), the forecasts are conducted by DWD. The system is running at ECMWF with a re-forecast ensemble of 15 member and a forecast ensemble of 30 member. The re-forecasts are initialised with full field nudging in the atmosphere (using ERA Interim), in the ocean (using ORAS4) and in the sea-ice component (using NSIDC sea-ice concentration). For the initialization of the forecasts analyses from the ECMWF NWP model and recent ORAS4 analyses are taken. The ensemble perturbations are, for both re-forecasts and forecasts, generated through bred vectors in the ocean which provide initial perturbations for the ensemble in combination with simple physics perturbations in the atmosphere. Evaluation of the re-forecasted climatologies will be presented for different variables, start dates and regions. The first winter forecast during the strong El Niño phase is also subject of evaluation.

  6. Systemic range shift lags among a pollinator species assemblage following rapid climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bedford, Felicity E.; Whittaker, Robert J.; Kerr, Jeremy T.

    2012-01-01

    Contemporary climate change is driving widespread geographical range shifts among many species. If species are tracking changing climate successfully, then leading populations should experience similar climatic conditions through time as new populations establish beyond historical range margins. ...... species assemblage in responses to recent climate change. Even among the most mobile species and without anthropogenic barriers to dispersal, these pollinators have been unable to extend their ranges as fast as required to keep pace with climate change....

  7. Impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower systems in central and southern Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamududu, Byman H.

    2012-11-15

    projected for a slight decrease (0.05%), Asia with an increase of 0.27%, Europe a reduction up to 0.16% while America is projected to have an increase of 0.05%. In the eastern African region, it was shown that hydropower production is likely to increase by 0.59%, the central with 0.22% and the western with a 0.03%. The southern, and northern African regions were projected to have reductions of 0.83% and 0.48% respectively. The basins with increases in flow projections have a slight increase on hydropower production but not proportional to the increase in precipitation. The basins with decreases had even high change as the reduction was further increased by evaporation losses. The hydropower production potential of most of southern African basins is likely to decrease in the future due to the impact of climate change while the central African region shows an increasing trend. The hydropower system in these regions will be affected consequently. The hydropower production changes will vary from basin to basin in these regions. The Zambezi, Kafue and Shire river basins have negative changes while the Congo, Kwanza and Kabompo river basins have positive changes. The hydropower production potential in the Zambezi basin decreases by 9 - 34%. The hydropower production potential in the Kafue basin decreases by 8 - 34% and the Shire basin decreases by 7 - 14 %. The southern region will become drier with shorter rainy seasons. The central region will become wetter with increased runoff. The hydropower production potential in the Congo basin reduces slightly and then increases by 4% by the end of the century. The hydropower production potential in the Kwanza basin decreases by 3% and then increases by 10% towards the end of the century and the Kabompo basin production increases by 6 - 18%. It can be concluded that in the central African region hydropower production will, in general, increase while the southern African region, hydropower production will decrease. In summary, the

  8. Modeling Multi-Reservoir Hydropower Systems in the Sierra Nevada with Environmental Requirements and Climate Warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rheinheimer, David Emmanuel

    Hydropower systems and other river regulation often harm instream ecosystems, partly by altering the natural flow and temperature regimes that ecosystems have historically depended on. These effects are compounded at regional scales. As hydropower and ecosystems are increasingly valued globally due to growing values for clean energy and native species as well as and new threats from climate warming, it is important to understand how climate warming might affect these systems, to identify tradeoffs between different water uses for different climate conditions, and to identify promising water management solutions. This research uses traditional simulation and optimization to explore these issues in California's upper west slope Sierra Nevada mountains. The Sierra Nevada provides most of the water for California's vast water supply system, supporting high-elevation hydropower generation, ecosystems, recreation, and some local municipal and agricultural water supply along the way. However, regional climate warming is expected to reduce snowmelt and shift runoff to earlier in the year, affecting all water uses. This dissertation begins by reviewing important literature related to the broader motivations of this study, including river regulation, freshwater conservation, and climate change. It then describes three substantial studies. First, a weekly time step water resources management model spanning the Feather River watershed in the north to the Kern River watershed in the south is developed. The model, which uses the Water Evaluation And Planning System (WEAP), includes reservoirs, run-of-river hydropower, variable head hydropower, water supply demand, and instream flow requirements. The model is applied with a runoff dataset that considers regional air temperature increases of 0, 2, 4 and 6 °C to represent historical, near-term, mid-term and far-term (end-of-century) warming. Most major hydropower turbine flows are simulated well. Reservoir storage is also

  9. Quantifying and Reducing Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedback Uncertainties: Analysis of CMIP5 Earth System Model Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffman, F. M.; Randerson, J. T.

    2011-12-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, resulting from anthropogenic perturbation of the global carbon cycle, are altering the Earth's climate. Climate change is expected to induce feedbacks on future CO2 concentrations and on the climate system itself. These feedbacks are highly uncertain, potentially large, and difficult to predict using Earth System Models (ESMs). In order to reduce the range of uncertainty in climate predictions, model representation of feedbacks must be improved through comparisons with contemporary observations. In this study, we quantify the terrestrial and ocean carbon storage sensitivity to climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration of ESMs participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) following the methodology of Friedlingstein et al. (2006). In order to evaluate the models' abilities to capture the 21st century carbon cycle and to offer possible constraints on the modeled feedback strengths, comparisons with contemporary observations will be made over three different time scales: seasonal to annual, interannual to decadal, and decadal to centennial. A conceptual framework for evaluating climate-carbon cycle feedbacks in global models--employing best-available observational data--will be presented, along with results from application of this framework to CMIP5 model output. Included in the analysis will be prototype model evaluation benchmarks of the carbon cycle being designed for the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Project.

  10. National Climate Assessment - Land Data Assimilation System (NCA-LDAS) Data at NASA GES DISC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rui, Hualan; Teng, Bill; Vollmer, Bruce; Jasinski, Michael; Mocko, David; Kempler, Steven

    2016-01-01

    As part of NASA's active participation in the Interagency National Climate Assessment (NCA) program, the Goddard Space Flight Center's Hydrological Sciences Laboratory (HSL) is supporting an Integrated Terrestrial Water Analysis, by using NASA's Land Information System (LIS) and Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) capabilities. To maximize the benefit of the NCA-LDAS, on completion of planned model runs and uncertainty analysis, NASA will provide open access to all NCA-LDAS components, including input data, output fields, and indicator data, to other NCA-teams and the general public. The NCA-LDAS data will be archived at the NASA GES DISC (Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center) and can be accessed via direct ftp, THREDDS, Mirador search and download, and Giovanni visualization and analysis system.

  11. Design of a photovoltaic system for a temperate climate all-electric residence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehalick, E. M.; Tully, G. F.; Johnson, J.; Truncellito, N.; Schaeffer, R.

    1982-01-01

    A photovoltaic system was developed and integrated into a single story residence having low space conditioning loads typical of a temperate climate similar to Santa Maria, CA. The design addresses the residential market segment of low energy consuming houses with limited roof area availability; in fact the garage roof is used for the array. The array size to meet the requirements of this type of house covers 40 square m with a rated power output of 4.3 kW at NOCT conditions. A flexible array installation is presented which can be implemented as an integral mount or a stand-off mount depending on the homeowner preference. A 4 kW utility-tied inverter is used in the power conversion subsystem, representative of currently available hardware. The system provides feedback of excess energy to the utility which is the most promising approach for grid-connected residential systems in the mid 1980's.

  12. Operation of hydropower generation systems in the Alps under future climate and socio-economic drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

    2015-04-01

    Alpine hydropower systems are an important source of renewable energy for many countries in Europe. In Switzerland, for instance, they represent the most important domestic source of renewable energy (around 55%). However, future hydropower production may be threatened by unprecedented challenges, such as a decreasing water availability, due to climate change (CC) and associated glacier retreat, and uncertain operating conditions, such as future power needs and highly fluctuating demand on the energy market. This second aspect has gained increasingly relevance since the massive introduction of solar and wind generating systems in the portfolios of many European countries. Because hydropower systems have the potential to provide backup storage of energy to compensate for fluctuations that are typical, for instance, of solar and wind generation systems, it is important to investigate how the increased demand for flexible operation, together with climate change challenge and fluctuating markets, can impact their operating policies. The Swiss Competence Center on Supply of Electricity (www.sccer-soe.ch) has been recently established to explore new potential paths for the development of future power generation systems. In this context, we develop modelling and optimization tools to design and assess new operation strategies for hydropower systems to increase their reliability, flexibility, and robustness to future operation conditions. In particular, we develop an advanced modelling framework for the integrated simulation of the operation of hydropower plants, which accounts for CC-altered streamflow regimes, new demand and market conditions, as well as new boundary conditions for operation (e.g., aquatic ecosystem conservation). The model construction consists of two primary components: a physically based and spatially distributed hydrological model, which describes the relevant hydrological processes at the basin scale, and an agent based decision model, which

  13. Fluvial responses to late Quaternary climate change in the Shiyang River drainage system, western China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hongshan; Li, Zongmeng; Pan, Baotian; Liu, Fenliang; Liu, Xiaopeng

    2016-04-01

    As a drainage system located in arid western China, the Shiyang River, combined with considerable fluvial strata and landform information, provides an environmental context within which to investigate fluvial responses to late Quaternary climate change. Sedimentological analysis and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating enabled us to reconstruct the processes and fluvial styles of three sedimentary sequences of the Shagou and Hongshui rivers in the Shiyang drainage system. Our results present a variety of river behaviors during the late Quaternary in these areas. In the upstream Shiyang River, Zhangjiadazhuang (ZJDZ) profile of the Shagou was dominated by aggradation and a meandering channel pattern at 10.6-4.2 ka, while a noticeable channel incision occurred at ~ 4.2 ka followed by lateral channel migration. In the downstream Shiyang River, Datugou (DTG) profile of the Hongshui was an aggrading meandering river from 39.7 to 7.2 ka while channel incision occurred at 7.2 ka. Another downstream profile, Wudunwan (WDW) of the Hongshui was also characterized by aggradation from 22.4 to 4.8 ka; however, its channel pattern shifted from braided to meandering at ~ 13 ka. A discernable downcutting event occurred at ~ 4.8 ka, followed by three channel aggradation and incision episodes prior to 1.8 ka. The last 1.8 ka has been characterized by modern channel and floodplain development. The fluvial processes and styles investigated have a close correlation with late Quaternary climate change in the Shiyang River drainage. During cold phases, the WDW reach was dominated by aggradation with a braided channel pattern. During warm phases, the rivers that we investigated were also characterized by aggradation but with meandering channel patterns. Channel incision events and changes of fluvial style occurred mainly during climate transitions.

  14. Toward server-side, high performance climate change data analytics in the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) eco-system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Sandro; Williams, Dean; Aloisio, Giovanni

    2016-04-01

    In many scientific domains such as climate, data is often n-dimensional and requires tools that support specialized data types and primitives to be properly stored, accessed, analysed and visualized. Moreover, new challenges arise in large-scale scenarios and eco-systems where petabytes (PB) of data can be available and data can be distributed and/or replicated (e.g., the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) serving the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, providing access to 2.5PB of data for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). Most of the tools currently available for scientific data analysis in the climate domain fail at large scale since they: (1) are desktop based and need the data locally; (2) are sequential, so do not benefit from available multicore/parallel machines; (3) do not provide declarative languages to express scientific data analysis tasks; (4) are domain-specific, which ties their adoption to a specific domain; and (5) do not provide a workflow support, to enable the definition of complex "experiments". The Ophidia project aims at facing most of the challenges highlighted above by providing a big data analytics framework for eScience. Ophidia provides declarative, server-side, and parallel data analysis, jointly with an internal storage model able to efficiently deal with multidimensional data and a hierarchical data organization to manage large data volumes ("datacubes"). The project relies on a strong background of high performance database management and OLAP systems to manage large scientific data sets. It also provides a native workflow management support, to define processing chains and workflows with tens to hundreds of data analytics operators to build real scientific use cases. With regard to interoperability aspects, the talk will present the contribution provided both to the RDA Working Group on Array Databases, and the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF

  15. Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect

  16. Impacts of Climate and Human-induced Changes on Stream Temperature in Large River Systems: An Earth System Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, H. Y.; Leung, L. R.; Tesfa, T. K.; Voisin, N.; Yang, X.; Rice, J.

    2014-12-01

    Stream temperature plays an important role in closing the energy balance at local, regional and global scales, and exerts significant impacts on aquatic biodiversity, power plant operation and energy production. It is therefore a critical component for representing the energy-water nexus in earth system models. The stream temperature particularly in large river systems is very often regulated by human activities such as reservoir and power plant operations. This study is a first attempt to develop a physically based stream temperature model within the Community Earth System Model (CESM) framework. The Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART) has been developed to represent riverine water dynamics and incorporated into CESM by coupling with the Community Land Model (CLM). Here we build upon CLM-MOSART to represent the riverine transport of heat along with water flux and the energy exchanges between river water and the atmosphere. More importantly, the impacts of reservoir and power plant operations are also explicitly parameterized within this new stream temperature model. This new stream temperature model will first be driven by historical forcing and validated against the observed stream temperature at a number of USGS gauges across the US. Then, driven by dynamically downscaled climate change scenarios, the relative contributions of climate change and reservoir and power-plant operation on the projected spatiotemporal changes in stream temperature will be systematically analyzed. Lastly the current limitations and future directions will be discussed.

  17. Perception of climate change and its impact by smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana, South Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Debela, Nega; Mohammed, Caroline; Bridle, Kerry; Corkrey, Ross; McNeil, David

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the perception of historic changes in climate and associated impact on local agriculture among smallholders in pastoral/agropastoral systems of Borana in southern Ethiopia. We drew on empirical data obtained from farm household surveys conducted in 5 districts, 20 pastoral/agropastoral associations and 480 farm households. Using this data, this study analyses smallholders’ perception of climate change and its associated impact on local agriculture, and the effect of va...

  18. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality in a Tidal Estuarine System Using a Three-Dimensional Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wen-Cheng Liu; Wen-Ting Chan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is one of the key factors affecting the future quality and quantity of water in rivers and tidal estuaries. A coupled three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model has been developed and applied to the Danshuei River estuarine system in northern Taiwan to predict the influences of climate change on water quality. The water quality model considers state variables including nitrogen, phosphorus, organic carbon, and phytoplankton as well as dissolved oxygen, and is driven...

  19. Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of regional unconfined aquifer systems in south-western Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Ali, R; McFarlane, D.; Varma, S.; W. Dawes; I. Emelyanova; Hodgson, G.

    2012-01-01

    This study assesses climate change impacts on water balance components of the regional unconfined aquifer systems in south-western Australia, an area that has experienced a marked decline in rainfall since the mid 1970s and is expected to experience further decline due to global warming. Compared with the historical period of 1975 to 2007, reductions in the mean annual rainfall of between 15 and 18 percent are expected under a dry variant of the 2030 climate which will reduc...

  20. Potential climate change impacts on the water balance of regional unconfined aquifer systems in South-Western Australia

    OpenAIRE

    Ali, R; McFarlane, D.; Varma, S.; W. Dawes; I. Emelyanova; Hodgson, G.

    2012-01-01

    This study assessed climate change impacts on water balance components of the regional unconfined aquifer systems in South-Western Australia, an area that has experienced a marked decline in rainfall since the mid 1970s and is expected to experience further decline due to global warming. Compared with the historical period of 1975 to 2007, reductions in the mean annual rainfall of between 15 and 18% are expected under a dry variant of the 2030 climate which will reduce recharge rates b...

  1. Past, present, and future climate at select INDEPTH member Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems in Africa and Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Hondula

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate and weather affect human health directly and indirectly. There is a renewed interest in various aspects of environmental health as our understanding of ongoing climate change improves. In particular, today, the health effects in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs are not well understood. Many computer models predict some of the biggest changes in places where people are equipped with minimal resources to combat the effects of a changing environment, particularly with regard to human health. Objective: This article documents the observed and projected climate profiles of select sites within the International Network for the Demographic Evaluation of Populations and Their Health (INDEPTH network of Health and Demographic Surveillance System sites in Africa and Asia to support the integration of climate research with health practice and policy. Design: The climatology of four meteorological stations representative of a suite of INDEPTH Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems (HDSSs was assessed using daily data of 10 years. Historical and future trends were analyzed using reanalysis products and global climate model projections. Results: The climate characteristics of the HDSS sites investigated suggest vulnerability to different environmental stressors, and the changes expected over the next century are far greater in magnitude than those observed at many of the INDEPTH member sites. Conclusions: The magnitude of potential future climate changes in the LMICs highlights the need for improvements in collaborative climate–health research in these countries. Climate data resources are available to support such research efforts. The INDEPTH studies presented in this supplement are the first attempt to assess and document associations of climatic factors with mortality at the HDSSs.

  2. Residential Solar-Based Seasonal Thermal Storage Systems in Cold Climates: Building Envelope and Thermal Storage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Hugo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The reduction of electricity use for heating and domestic hot water in cold climates can be achieved by: (1 reducing the heating loads through the improvement of the thermal performance of house envelopes, and (2 using solar energy through a residential solar-based thermal storage system. First, this paper presents the life cycle energy and cost analysis of a typical one-storey detached house, located in Montreal, Canada. Simulation of annual energy use is performed using the TRNSYS software. Second, several design alternatives with improved thermal resistance for walls, ceiling and windows, increased overall air tightness, and increased window-to-wall ratio of South facing windows are evaluated with respect to the life cycle energy use, life cycle emissions and life cycle cost. The solution that minimizes the energy demand is chosen as a reference house for the study of long-term thermal storage. Third, the computer simulation of a solar heating system with solar thermal collectors and long-term thermal storage capacity is presented. Finally, the life cycle cost and life cycle energy use of the solar combisystem are estimated for flat-plate solar collectors and evacuated tube solar collectors, respectively, for the economic and climatic conditions of this study.

  3. On thermodynamic evolution criteria with radiation effects of the global climate system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors' elaboration of atmospheric radiative transfer processes in the theoretical framework of local irreversible thermodynamics is applied to study integral entropy production theorems for the global earth-atmosphere system. In detail it is shown that, with the inclusion of radiant absorption and emission being decisive effects for long-term climate variations, global evolution criteria can be formulated quite generally and applied to typical meteorological-climatological conditions. For our specific system in which radiant phenomena and Fourier-type heat conduction are combined, the validity of the Glansdorff-Prigogine general evolution condition is discussed. This principle is applied as a basis to derive a sufficient thermodynamical stability criterion for Budyko-Sellers type energy balance models. With given simplifications so-called kinetic or diffusive potentials characterizing Lyapounov-stability can be formulated. This analysis is used to discuss the limiting case of an isothermal gray (and especially a black) body whose entropy production becomes a minimum in stationary states. We notice too, how Paltridge's former hypothesis of a climate having a maximum production of entropy can be interpreted in this thermodynamical connexion

  4. JPL's Role in Advancing Earth System Science to Meet the Challenges of Climate and Environmental Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Diane

    2012-01-01

    Objective 2.1.1: Improve understanding of and improve the predictive capability for changes in the ozone layer, climate forcing, and air quality associated with changes in atmospheric composition. Objective 2.1.2: Enable improved predictive capability for weather and extreme weather events. Objective 2.1.3: Quantify, understand, and predict changes in Earth s ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, including the global carbon cycle, land cover, and biodiversity. Objective 2.1.4: Quantify the key reservoirs and fluxes in the global water cycle and assess water cycle change and water quality. Objective 2.1.5: Improve understanding of the roles of the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice in the climate system and improve predictive capability for its future evolution. Objective 2.1.6: Characterize the dynamics of Earth s surface and interior and form the scientific basis for the assessment and mitigation of natural hazards and response to rare and extreme events. Objective 2.1.7: Enable the broad use of Earth system science observations and results in decision-making activities for societal benefits.

  5. Thirty-four years of Hawaii wave hindcast from downscaling of climate forecast system reanalysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Cheung, Kwok Fai; Stopa, Justin E.; Hsiao, Feng; Chen, Yi-Leng; Vega, Luis; Cross, Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The complex wave climate of Hawaii includes a mix of seasonal swells and wind waves from all directions across the Pacific. Numerical hindcasting from surface winds provides essential space-time information to complement buoy and satellite observations for studies of the marine environment. We utilize WAVEWATCH III and SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) in a nested grid system to model basin-wide processes as well as high-resolution wave conditions around the Hawaiian Islands from 1979 to 2013. The wind forcing includes the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for the globe and downscaled regional winds from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Long-term in-situ buoy measurements and remotely-sensed wind speeds and wave heights allow thorough assessment of the modeling approach and data products for practical application. The high-resolution WRF winds, which include orographic and land-surface effects, are validated with QuickSCAT observations from 2000 to 2009. The wave hindcast reproduces the spatial patterns of swell and wind wave events detected by altimeters on multiple platforms between 1991 and 2009 as well as the seasonal variations recorded at 16 offshore and nearshore buoys around the Hawaiian Islands from 1979 to 2013. The hindcast captures heightened seas in interisland channels and around prominent headlands, but tends to overestimate the heights of approaching northwest swells and give lower estimates in sheltered areas. The validated high-resolution hindcast sets a baseline for future improvement of spectral wave models.

  6. FPGA Implementation of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems Controller for Greenhouse Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charaf eddine LACHOURI

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes a Field-programmable Gate Array (FPGA implementation of Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inferences Systems (ANFIS using Very High-Speed Integrated Circuit Hardware-Description Language (VHDL for controlling temperature and humidity inside a tomato greenhouse. The main advantages of using the HDL approach are rapid prototyping and allowing usage of powerful synthesis controller through the use of the VHDL code. The use of hardware description language (HDL in the application is suitable for implementation into an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC and Field tools such as Quartus II 8.1. A set of six inputs meteorological and control actuators parameters that have a major impact on the greenhouse climate was chosen to represent the growing process of tomato plants. In this contribution, we discussed the construction of an ANFIS system that seeks to provide a linguistic model for the estimation of greenhouse climate from the meteorological data and control actuators during 48 days of seedlings growth embedded in the trained neural network and optimized using the backpropagation and the least square algorithm with 500 iterations. The simulation results have shown the efficiency of the implemented controller.

  7. Discrepancy in climatic zoning of the current soil productivity evaluation system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuchma, Filip; Středová, Hana

    2015-12-01

    Pedologic-ecological estimation in the Czech Republic (Central Europe) means determination of land agronomic productivity and its economical pricing and is expressed as a five position numeral code and mapped as iso-lines. The first position of the code is the climatic region representing approximately the same conditions for agricultural plant growth and development. This climatic regionalization was based on the climatic data from 1901-1950. Currently, there is the need to update their existing zoning due to the technological progress of measurement and development of climate models including estimation of future climate. The aim of the paper is (i) to apply actual climatic data to climatic regionalization and (ii) to estimate what climatic conditions are relevant for actually valid climatic regions. The original methodology currently enables us to unequivocally classify only 17% of the entire territory of the Czech Republic (and 18% of Czech agricultural land). A substantial part of the territory does not fit neatly into individual climatic regions. Subsequently the actually valid ranges of climatic characteristics of individual climatic regions were determined. The GIS layers of individual climatic variables computed with data from 1961-2010 were one by one covered by GIS layers of individual climatic regions based on data from 1901-1950. Interval ranges of climatic region variables determined in this way are valid for the period 1961-2010. The upper limit of air temperature sum above 10 °C and annual air temperature in most of the climatic regions was significantly shifted up in 1961-2010. An increase in precipitation is noticeable in wet climatic regions. Moisture certainty in vegetation season and probability of dry vegetation are the most problematic in terms of Estimated Pedologic-Ecological Units (EPEU) climatic zoning. This should be taken into account when fixing the official soil price.

  8. Climate impact on groundwater systems: the past is the key to the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Ploeg, Martine; Cendón, Dioni; Haldorsen, Sylvi; Chen, Jinyao; Gurdak, Jason; Tujchneider, Ofelia; Vaikmäe, Rein; Purtschert, Roland; Chkir Ben Jemâa, Najiba

    2013-04-01

    Groundwater is a significant part of the global hydrological cycle and supplies fresh drinking water to almost half of the world's population. While groundwater supplies are buffered against short-term effects of climate variability, they can be impacted over longer time scales through changes in precipitation, ,evaporation, recharge rate, melting of glaciers or permafrost, vegetation, and land-use. Moreover, uncontrolled groundwater extraction has and will lead to irreversible depletion of fresh water resources in many areas. The impact of climate variability and groundwater extraction on the resilience of groundwater systems is still not fully understood (Green et al. 2011). Groundwater stores environmental and climatic information acquired during the recharge process, which integrates different signals, like recharge temperature, origin of precipitation, and dissolved constituents. This information can be used to estimate palaeo recharge temperatures, palaeo atmospheric dynamics and residence time of groundwater within the aquifer (Stute et al. 1995, Clark and Fritz 1997, Collon et al. 2000, Edmunds et al. 2003, Cartwright et al. 2007, Kreuzer et al. 2009, Currell et al. 2010, Raidla et al. 2012, Salem et al. 2012). The climatic signals incorporated by groundwater during recharge have the potential to provide a regionally integrated proxy of climatic variations at the time of recharge. Groundwater palaeoclimate information is affected by diffusion-dispersion processes (Davison and Airey, 1982) and/or water-rock interaction (Clark and Fritz, 1997), making palaeoclimate information deduced from groundwater inherently a low resolution record. While the signal resolution can be limited, recharge follows major climatic events, and more importantly, shows how those aquifers and their associated recharge varies under climatic forcing. While the characterization of groundwater resources, surface-groundwater interactions and their link to the global water cycle are an

  9. Simulated effects of climate change on the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, Nevada and California

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The US Geological Survey, in cooperation with the US Department of Energy, is evaluating the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of the Death Valley regional flow system as part of the Yucca Mountain Project. As part of the hydrologic investigation, regional, three-dimensional conceptual and numerical ground-water-flow models have been developed to assess the potential effects of past and future climates on the regional flow system. A simulation that is based on climatic conditions 21,000 years ago was evaluated by comparing the simulated results to observation of paleodischarge sites. Following acceptable simulation of a past climate, a possible future ground-water-flow system, with climatic conditions that represent a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, was simulated. The steady-state simulations were based on the present-day, steady-state, regional ground-water-flow model. The finite-difference model consisted of 163 rows, 153 columns, and 3 layers and was simulated using MODFLOWP. Climate changes were implemented in the regional ground-water-flow model by changing the distribution of ground-water recharge. Global-scale, average-annual, simulated precipitation for both past- and future-climate conditions developed elsewhere were resampled to the model-grid resolution. A polynomial function that represents the Maxey-Eakin method for estimating recharge from precipitation was used to develop recharge distributions for simulation

  10. Long term prospective of the Seine River system: Confronting climatic and direct anthropogenic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To explore the evolution of a human impacted river, the Seine (France), over the 21st century, three driving factors were examined: climate, agriculture, and point source inputs of domestic and industrial origin. Three future scenarios were constructed, by modification of a baseline representative of recent conditions. A climate change scenario, based on simulations by a general circulation model driven by the SRES-A2 scenario of radiative forcing, accounts for an average warming of + 3.3 deg. C over the watershed and marked winter increase and summer decrease in precipitation. To illustrate a possible reduction in nitrate pollution from agricultural origin, a scenario of good agricultural practices was considered, introducing catch crops and a 20% decrease in nitrogen fertilisation. Future point source pollution was estimated following the assumptions embedded in scenario SRES-A2 regarding demographic, economic and technologic changes, leading to reductions of 30 to 75% compared to 2000, depending on the pollutants. Four models, addressing separate components of the river system (agronomical model, hydrogeological model, land surface model and water quality model), were used to analyse the relative impact of these scenarios on water quality, in light of their impact on hydrology and crop production. The first-order driving factor of water quality over the 21st century is the projected reduction of point source pollution, inducing a noticeable decrease in eutrophication and oxygen deficits downstream from Paris. The impact of climate change on these terms is driven by the warming of the water column. It enhances algal growth in spring and the loss factors responsible for phytoplankton mortality in late summer (grazers and viruses). In contrast, increased seasonal contrasts in river discharge have a negligible impact on river water quality, as do the changes in riverine nitrate concentration, which never gets limiting. The latter changes have a similar magnitude

  11. Development of an expert system for tackling the public's perception to climate-change impacts on petroleum industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change could cause significant impacts on human activities, which is especially true for regions that are of high latitude such as Canada. Petroleum industry is a main economic sector in Canada's prairie, where a number of its production and processing practices are vulnerable to the fluctuations of climatic conditions. In this study, an expert system (ES) for integrated climate-change impact assessment within the prairie's petroleum sector was developed. Interactive relationships among climate change, natural-condition variations, industrial activities, environmental concerns and economic objectives, as well as the related policy implications, were comprehensively examined and incorporated within the ES. A series of questionnaire surveys were conducted for acquiring knowledge about the interrelationships between the climate change and the petroleum-related activities. Processes that were vulnerable to climate change were analyzed, followed by an integrated impact assessment. The results indicated that the impacts of increased temperature and natural hazards would be very significant on most of the petroleum-related processes. Also, the petroleum industry would be quite sensitive to changed precipitation patterns. The developed ES can be used for both acquiring knowledge of climate-change impacts on the petroleum industry and supporting formulation of the relevant adaptation policies. (author)

  12. A Review of Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems Considering the Climate Change and Urbanization Impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and urbanization are converging to challenge city drainage infrastructure due to their adverse impacts on precipitation extremes and the environment of urban areas. Sustainable drainage systems have gained growing public interest in recent years, as a result of its positive effects on water quality and quantity issues and additional recreational amenities perceived in the urban landscape. This paper reviews recent progress in sustainable drainage development based on literature across different disciplinary fields. After presenting the key elements and criteria of sustainable drainage design, various devices and examples of sustainable drainage systems are introduced. The state-of-the-art model approaches and decision-aid tools for assessing the sustainable alternatives are discussed and compared. The paper further explores some limitations and difficulties in the application of the innovative solutions and suggests an integrated and trans-disciplinary approach for sustainable drainage design.

  13. Mainstreaming Climate Change Into Geosciences Curriculum of Tertiary Educational Systems in Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyarko, B. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana and also juxtapose with the WASCAL graduate school curriculum. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognize that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to make Climate Change education practical.

  14. The Med-CORDEX initiative: towards fully coupled Regional Climate System Models to study the Mediterranean climate variability, change and impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somot, S.; Ruti, P.

    2012-04-01

    The Mediterranean region is considered as particularly vulnerable to climate variability and change (Giorgi, 2006; IPCC, 2007), in particular, to changes in its regional water cycle. This climate vulnerability is a key issue for the 500 million inhabitants living in the 30 Mediterranean countries. In addition, the Mediterranean basin is a good case study for climate regionalization. It is indeed surrounded by various and complex topography channelling regional winds (Mistral, Tramontane, Bora, Etesian, Sirocco) than defined local climate. Many small-size islands limit the low-level air flow and its coastline is particularly complex. Strong land-sea contrast, land-atmosphere feedback, intense air-sea coupling and aerosol-radiation interaction are also among the regional characteristics to take into account when dealing with the Mediterranean climate modeling. What is true for the Mediterranean climate is also true for the Mediterranean Sea that show complex bathymetry including narrow and shallow straits, a strong eddy activity and various distinct and interacting water masses. For all these reasons, the Mediterranean area has been chosen as a CORDEX sub-domain (MED) leading to the Med-CORDEX initiative endorsed by Med-CLIVAR and HyMeX. In addition to the core CORDEX framework (Atmosphere-RCM, 50 km, ERA-Interim, RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two more tiers have been defined for Med-CORDEX. The first one would like to assess the added-value of higher-resolution RCMs pushing the horizontal resolution up to 10 km. The second one will serve to test new regional climate modeling tools called Regional Climate System Models (RCSM) including a high-resolution and coupled representation of all the physical components of the regional climate system: atmosphere, land surface, vegetation, surface hydrology, rivers and ocean. In addition, the Med-CORDEX initiative is strongly coordinated with the HyMeX program that plans large field campaigns within the area of interest, development of new

  15. Groundwater Flow Systems and Their Response to Climate Change: A Need for a Water-System View Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joel J. Carrillo-Rivera

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Problem statement: The interest in early hydrogeological studies was the aquifer unit, as it is the physical media that stores and permits groundwater transfers from the recharge zone to the discharge zone, making groundwater available to boreholes for water extraction. Approach: Recently, the aquifer concept has been complemented by the groundwater flow system theory, where groundwater may be defined by local, intermediate and regional flow systems. This implies that groundwater may travel from one aquifer unit to another aquifer unit (or more located above or below the former. Water in a local flow system takes months or several years to travel from the recharge to the discharge zone. These flows usually transfer the best natural quality water, so a reduction in precipitation would lessen recharge and diminish stored water, making them more vulnerable to contamination and variability in climatic conditions. Thus, there is a need to define local flows and to enhance actions to protect them from contamination and inefficient extraction. Results: In contrast to local flows, intermediate and regional flows travel from a region, or country, into another, with their recharge processes usually taking place in a zone located far away from the discharge zone (natural or by boreholes. There is a need of groundwater flow systems evaluation by means of an integrated wide system-view analysis of partial evidence represented by surface (soil and vegetation covers as well as hydraulic, isotopic and chemical groundwater characterization in the related geological media where the depth of actual basement rock is paramount as well as discharge areas. The flow system definition may assist in extraction management strategies to control related issues as subsidence, obtained the water quality change, desiccation of springs and water bodies, soil erosion, flooding response, contamination processes in recharge areas, among others; many of which could be efficiently

  16. Diagnosis of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in high resolution NCEP climate forecast system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abhik, S.; Mukhopadhyay, P.; Krishna, R. P. M.; Salunke, Kiran D.; Dhakate, Ashish R.; Rao, Suryachandra A.

    2016-05-01

    The present study examines the ability of high resolution (T382) National Centers for Environmental Prediction coupled atmosphere-ocean climate forecast system version 2 (CFS T382) in simulating the salient spatio-temporal characteristics of the boreal summertime mean climate and the intraseasonal variability. The shortcomings of the model are identified based on the observation and compared with earlier reported biases of the coarser resolution of CFS (CFS T126). It is found that the CFS T382 reasonably mimics the observed features of basic state climate during boreal summer. But some prominent biases are noted in simulating the precipitation, tropospheric temperature (TT) and sea surface temperature (SST) over the global tropics. Although CFS T382 primarily reproduces the observed distribution of the intraseasonal variability over the Indian summer monsoon region, some difficulty remains in simulating the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) characteristics. The simulated eastward propagation of BSISO decays rapidly across the Maritime Continent, while the northward propagation appears to be slightly slower than observation. However, the northward propagating BSISO convection propagates smoothly from the equatorial region to the northern latitudes with observed magnitude. Moreover, the observed northwest-southeast tilted rain band is not well reproduced in CFS T382. The warm mean SST bias and inadequate simulation of high frequency modes appear to be responsible for the weak simulation of eastward propagating BSISO. Unlike CFS T126, the simulated mean SST and TT exhibit warm biases, although the mean precipitation and simulated BSISO characteristics are largely similar in both the resolutions of CFS. Further analysis of the convectively coupled equatorial waves (CCEWs) indicates that model overestimates the gravest equatorial Rossby waves and underestimates the Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves. Based on analysis of CCEWs, the study further

  17. Multivariate Climate-Weather Forecasting System: An Integrated Approach for Mitigating Agricultural Risks in India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, N.; Lall, U.; Perveen, S.

    2012-12-01

    While India has a long history of prediction of the All India Monsoon, work on spatially specific attributes of the monsoon, as well as monsoon break periods has only recently emerged. However, from a risk management context, prognostic information of a single variable such as total precipitation or average temperature will be of less utility especially for specific operational purposes. An integrated regional climate-weather forecast system covering precipitation, temperature and humidity etc. over the year will benefit the farmers in the context of a specific decision time table for irrigation scheduling as well as for pre-season crop choices. Hence, contrary to the existing forecasting methods that develop multi time scale information of a single variable at a time, in this paper, we introduce an integrated regional multivariate climate-weather forecasting system that directly relates to agricultural decision making and risk mitigation. These multi-scale risk attributes include mutually dependent, spatially disaggregated statistics such as total rainfall, average temperature, growing degree days, relative humidity, total number of rainfall days/dry spell length, and cumulative water deficits that inform the potential irrigation water requirements for crops etc. Given that these attributes exhibit mutual dependence across space and time, we propose to explore common ocean-atmospheric conditions from the observations and the state of the art Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that can be utilized as the predictor variables for the forecasting system. Non parametric bootstrap resampling methods and Hierarchical Bayesian methods that can easily handle the high dimensionality of such problems will be used to develop the integrated forecast system. The developed multivariate forecasts will be adapted and disseminated as decision tools for the farmers under the Columbia Water Center's pilot project in Punjab region of India.

  18. Multivariate Climate-Weather Forecasting System: An Integrated Approach for Mitigating Agricultural Risks in Punjab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravindranath, A.; Devineni, N.

    2015-12-01

    While India has a long history of prediction of the All India Monsoon, work on spatially specific attributes of the monsoon, as well as monsoon break periods has only recently emerged. However, from a risk management context, prognostic information of a single variable such as total precipitation or average temperature will be of less utility especially for specific operational purposes. An integrated regional climate-weather forecast system covering precipitation, temperature and humidity etc. over the year will benefit the farmers in the context of a specific decision time table for irrigation scheduling as well as for pre-season crop choices. Hence, contrary to the existing forecasting methods that develop multi time scale information of a single variable at a time, in this paper, we introduce an integrated regional multivariate climate-weather forecasting system that directly relates to agricultural decision making and risk mitigation. These multi-scale risk attributes include mutually dependent, spatially disaggregated statistics such as total rainfall, average temperature, growing degree days, relative humidity, total number of rainfall days/dry spell length, and cumulative water deficits that inform the potential irrigation water requirements for crops. Given that these attributes exhibit mutual dependence across space and time, we propose to explore common ocean-atmospheric conditions from the observations and the state of the art Global Circulation Models (GCMs) that can be utilized as the predictor variables for the forecasting system. Hierarchical Bayesian methods are be used to develop the integrated forecast system. The developed multivariate forecasts will be adapted and disseminated as decision tools for the farmers under the extension projects in Punjab region of India.

  19. Climate-induced tree mortality: earth system consequences for carbon, energy, and water exchanges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, H. D.; Macalady, A.; Breshears, D. D.; Allen, C. D.; Luce, C.; Royer, P. D.; Huxman, T. E.

    2010-12-01

    One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and atmosphere that could present hazards to current earth system function. Terrestrial ecosystems, and in particular forests, exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets. Widespread, rapid, drought- and infestation-triggered tree mortality is now emerging as a phenomenon affecting forests globally and may be linked to increasing temperatures and drought frequency and severity. We demonstrate the link between climate-sensitive tree mortality and risks of altered earth system function though carbon, water, and energy exchange. Tree mortality causes a loss of carbon stocks from an ecosystem and a reduction sequestration capacity. Recent research has shown that the 2000s pinyon pine die-off in the southwest US caused the loss of 4.6 Tg of aboveground carbon stocks from the region in 5 years, far exceeding carbon loss from other disturbances. Widespread tree mortality in British Columbia resulted in the loss of 270 Tg of carbon, shifting affected forestland from a carbon sink to a source, and influenced Canadian forest policy on carbon stocks. Tree mortality, as an immediate loss of live tree cover, directly alters albedo, near-ground solar radiation, and the relative contributions of evaporation and transpiration to total evapotranspiration. Near-ground solar radiation, an important ecosystem trait affecting soil heating and water availability, increased regionally following the pinyon pine die-off. Conversely, forest canopy loss with tree mortality, is expected to increase regional albedo, especially for forests which experience winter snow cover, potentially offsetting the climate forcing of terrestrial carbon releases to the atmosphere. Initial hydrological response to die-off is likely a reduction in evapotranspiration, which can increase

  20. Low-Cost Solar Domestic Hot Water Systems for Mild Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burch, J.; Christensen, C.; Merrigan, T.; Hewett, R.; Jorgensen, G.

    2005-01-01

    In FY99, Solar Heating and Lighting set the goal to reduce the life-cycle cost of saved-energy for solar domestic hot water (SDHW) systems in mild climates by 50%, primarily through use of polymer technology. Two industry teams (Davis Energy Group/SunEarth (DEG/SE) and FAFCO) have been developing un-pressurized integral-collector-storage (ICS) systems having load-side heat exchangers, and began field-testing in FY04. DEG/SE?s ICS has a rotomolded tank and thermoformed glazing. Based upon manufacturing issues, costs, and poor performance, the FAFCO team changed direction in late FY04 from an un-pressurized ICS to a direct thermosiphon design based upon use of pool collectors. Support for the teams is being provided for materials testing, modeling, and system testing. New ICS system models have been produced to model the new systems. A new ICS rating procedure for the ICS systems is undergoing testing and validation. Pipe freezing, freeze protection valves, and overheating have been tested and analyzed.

  1. Estimating evapotranspiration under warmer climates: Insights from a semiarid riparian system

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper presents an approach to quantify evapotranspiration under changing climates, using field observations, theoretical evaporation models and meteorological predictions from global climate models. We analyzed evaporation and meteorological data from three riparian sites located in a semiarid ...

  2. High temperature solar heating and cooling systems for different Mediterranean climates: Dynamic simulation and economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper presents a dynamic model of an innovative solar heating and cooling system (SHC) based on the coupling of Parabolic Trough Collectors (PTC) with a double-stage LiBr-H2O absorption chiller; auxiliary energy for both heating and cooling is supplied by a biomass-fired heater. The system layout also includes a number of additional components such as: cooling tower, pumps, heat exchangers, etc. The consumption of non-renewable energy resources is only due to the small amount of electrical energy consumed by some auxiliary device. A case study is presented, in which the SHC provides space heating and cooling and domestic hot water for a small university hall, all year long. Both the SHC system and the building were dynamically simulated in TRNSYS. In order to evaluate the performance of the investigated system in various climatic conditions, the analyses were performed for seven Mediterranean cities in Italy, Spain, Egypt, France, Greece and Turkey. The analysis was also performed for a similar SHC in which the biomass heater was replaced by a gas-fired heater, in order to evaluate the influence of biomass to the overall system economic and energetic performance. In addition, a parametric analysis was performed in order to evaluate the sensitivity of the results, when varying some of the main design and operating parameters, such as: collector field area, tank volume and set-point temperatures. The results showed that the SHC system layout investigated can be competitive for the majority of the locations analysed, although the economic profitability is higher for the hottest climates. - Highlights: → In the high temperature SHC system the auxiliary heat is provided by biomass. → The energetic performance of the system is excellent during the summer. → In the winter the system suffers of the low beam radiation incident on the PTC. → The Simple Pay Back Period is encouraging, particularly in case of public funding. → An increase of the solar field area

  3. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities; Evenements climatiques extremes: reduire les vulnerabilites des systemes ecologiques et sociaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

    2010-07-01

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken

  4. Warming impact on energy use of HVAC system in buildings of different thermal qualities and in different climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Improving TQBE reduces heating load, while it might increase cooling load. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC varies from one climate to another. • Warming impact on energy use of HVAC depends on building’s thermal quality. • In mild climate, warming does not have a significant impact on energy use of HVAC. - Abstract: In order to combat climate change, energy use in the building must be further reduced. Heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems in residential buildings account for considerable fraction of global energy consumption. The potential contribution the domestic sector can make in reducing energy consumption is recognized worldwide. The driving energy of HVACs depends on the thermal quality of the building envelope (TQBE) and outside temperature. Definitely, building regulations are changing with the time toward reduce the thermal loads of buildings. However, most of the existing residential buildings were built to lower TQBE. For instant, 72% of residential dwellings in the 15-EU were built before 1972. To investigate the impact of warming on driving energy of HVACs of a residential building a computer model was developed. Three climate categories/cities were considered, i.e. Stockholm (cold), Istanbul (mild), and Doha (hot). In each city, two buildings were modeled: one was assumed to be built according to the current local buildings regulations (standard TQBE), while the anther was built to lower TQBE. The simulations were run for present and future (in 2050) outdoor designing conditions. The calculations show that the impact of the warming on annual driving energy of HVACs (reduction or increase) depends very much on the climate category and on the TQBE. Based on the climate and TQBE, the change in annual HVACs energy varies from −7.4% (in cold climate) to 12.7% (in hot climate). In mild climate, it was shown that the warming does not have significant impact on annual HVACs energy. Improving the TQBE can

  5. Exploring potential climate effects on the evolution of human sound systems

    OpenAIRE

    Roberts, S.; Everett, C; Blasi, D.

    2015-01-01

    We suggest that it is now possible to conduct research on a topic which might be called evolutionary geophonetics. The main question is how the climate influences the evolution of language. This involves biological adaptations to the climate that may affect biases in production and perception; cultural evolutionary adaptations of the sounds of a language to climatic conditions; and influences of the climate on language diversity and contact. We discuss these ideas with special reference to a ...

  6. A cross-region study: climate change adaptation in Malawi's agro-based systems

    OpenAIRE

    Assa, Maganga Mulagha; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos G.; Mapemba, Lawrence D.

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture in Malawi is vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. Adaptation is identified as one of the options to abate the negative impacts of the changing climate. This study analyzed the factors influencing different climate change adaptation choices by smallholder farmers in Malawi. We sampled 900 farmers from all three regions of Malawi, using the multistage sampling procedure, study piloted in 2012. We analyzed smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptation choices with Multinom...

  7. A decision support system for management planning of Eucalyptus plantations facing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia-Gonzalo, J.; Borges, J.G.; Palma, J. H. N.; Zubizarreta-Gerendiain, A.

    2014-01-01

    & Context Climate change studies in Portugal point to warming winters and increase in the dry season length, impacting growth of plants. New tools are needed to increase the effectiveness of forest management planning under climate change. & Aims To develop research tools that may help forest managers cope with climate change challenges to long-term planning. These tools should help assess the impact of climate change on the timing and location of forest management options as well as on fores...

  8. THE VULNERABILITY OF THE BAIA MARE URBAN SYSTEM (ROMANIA TO EXTREME CLIMATE PHENOMENA DURING THE WARM SEMESTER OF THE YEAR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DRAGOTĂ CARMEN

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The geographical position of the Baia Mare Urban System (intra-hilly depression favours the occurrence of a wide range of extreme climate phenomena which, coupled with the industrial profile of the city (non-ferrous mining and metallurgical industry triggering typical emissions (CO2, SOX, particulate matters and Pb, might pose a significant threat to human health. The article is aiming to assess the occurrence, frequency and amplitude of these extreme climate phenomena based on monthly and daily extreme climatic values from Baia Mare weather station in order to identify the areas more exposed. A GIS-based qualitative-heuristic method was used, each extreme climatic hazard being evaluated on a 1 to 3 scale according to its significance/impact in the study area and assigned with a weight (w and a rank (r, resulting the climate hazard map for the warm semester of the year. The authors further relate the areas exposed to the selected extreme climatic events to socio-economic aspects: demographic and economic in order to delineate the spatial distribution of the environmental vulnerability in the Baia Mare Urban System.

  9. Evaluating the Representation and Impact of Convective Processes in the NCAR’s Community Climate System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xiaoqing Wu

    2008-07-31

    Convection and clouds affect atmospheric temperature, moisture and wind fields through the heat of condensation and evaporation and through redistributions of heat, moisture and momentum. Individual clouds have a spatial scale of less than 10 km, much smaller than the grid size of several hundred kilometers used in climate models. Therefore the effects of clouds must be approximated in terms of variables that the model can resolve. Deriving such formulations for convection and clouds has been a major challenge for the climate modeling community due to the lack of observations of cloud and microphysical properties. The objective of our DOE CCPP project is to evaluate and improve the representation of convection schemes developed by PIs in the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and study its impact on global climate simulations.

  10. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  11. A Novel Application of Thermoelectric Modules in an HVAC System Under Cold Climate Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okuma, Toru; Radermacher, Reinhard; Hwang, Yunho

    2012-06-01

    A vapor compression cycle (VCC) with integrated thermoelectric (TE) modules to boost the heating capacity of the system in an energy-efficient way, especially for cold climate operation, is suggested in this paper. While a baseline heat pump (HP) cycle absorbs heat from a source through an evaporator, the proposed system utilizes TE modules as an intermediate (or third) stage of an otherwise two-stage vapor compression system with a vapor injection compressor. This increases the overall system efficiency and augments the system capacity through the high coefficient of performance (COP) of the TE for small temperature lift conditions. To demonstrate the concept, a prototype refrigerant-to-solid (TE) heat exchanger, consisting of TE modules and microchannel flat tubes, was designed and fabricated so that the whole system could realize an additional 1 kW of heating capacity compared with the baseline system. The TE heat exchanger was integrated into a residential HP unit that uses R-410A as a refrigerant, and the system was tested in a laboratory under the severe condition of -17.8°C, in order to investigate the capacity improvement and the overall COP. Finally, an application of this technique in an automotive heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning system with HFC134a working fluid has been studied for the purpose of providing supplemental heating for electric vehicles and hybrid electric vehicles by establishing a detailed simulation model of a HP system with the TE heat exchanger. Both the laboratory test and the calculation study show that a VCC with integrated TE modules has both reasonable efficiency and increased heating capacity.

  12. Systems thinking for understanding and predicting regional and local climate change effects on human health & well being: workshop process

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Systems Thinking Advisory Team (STAT) was engaged to guide a multi-disciplinary (health officials, modelers, climate change scientists, city planners, ecologists, and architects), multi-agency (EPA, CDC, State and Country officials) team in the use systems thinking, diagram...

  13. Analysis of projected climate change in the Carpathian Basin region based on Holdridge life zone system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szelepcsényi, Zoltán; Breuer, Hajnalka; Sümegi, Pál

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays more and more environmental lobbyists believe that climate change must be demonstrated in a new form. The estimated temperature increase can be realized more easily, if the emphasis is on ecological effects of the predicted temperature. For this reason a bioclimatic classification method was used to analyse the projected changes for the Carpathian Basin region. We applied the Holdridge life zone system, which is relatively simple, so our results can be used to inform the population. Holdridge developed a geometric model for climate classification which declares the relationship between classes (life zones) and climate indices (mean annual biotemperature, average total annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration ratio). The necessary data for this study was derived from regional climate model (RCM) experiments of the ENSEMBLES project using the SRES A1B emission scenario. The temperature and precipitation data series were bias corrected for the selected RCM simulations. The target area of our investigations is the Carpathian Basin region. Life zones maps were created using the selected RCM simulations and their ensemble mean for the periods: 1961-1990 (T1), 2021-2050 (T2), 2061-2090 (T3). The spatial distribution of life zones and their temporal changes were investigated. According to our results the spatial pattern of life zones changes significantly from T1 to T3. It is possible that some types of life zones (e.g. boreal rain forest) will disappear; and some types (e.g. warm temperate thorn steppe) will appear in the target area. We determined those RCM simulations which predicted the maximum and minimum changes of the spatial pattern of life zones. Maps of T1 were compared to maps of T3 using Cohen's Kappa coefficient. Furthermore, relative extents, vertical distribution patterns and mean centres of life zones have been analysed. These parameters were defined for each decade and also for T1, T2 and T3. The temporal changes of the decadal values

  14. Impact of climate and water management changes on the hydrological balance of the Laborec wetland system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fridrich Tegelhoffova, Martina; Hlavcova, Kamila; Kohnova, Silvia; Soltesz, Andrej

    2010-05-01

    The modeling of existing and changed conditions of hydrological balance in the selected wetland ecosystem in the Eastern Slovakia Lowland was evaluated using the hydrological model Mike SHE. The pilot area - Sennianska depression is located near by the Senne village, between Laborec and Uh Rivers and it is specific by traditional landscape of meadows, wet meadows, cultivated soils, small water control structures and forests. The pilot area is important in terms of vegetation conditions and for total restoration of the wetland system in the modeling area. As the input data for modeling of water balance following characteristics were selected: hydrologic and climate data (rainfall, air temperature, potential evapotranspiration), data from gauging stations and ground water wells (discharges, water levels and ground water levels), also the distributed layers of physical-geographical properties and characteristics of the area. Basic layers are represented by digital elevation model, the soil and land use maps and the map of geological layers. Other input data are distributed parameters from land use map, parameters from geological properties and parameters from soil map. Built-up physically based hydrological model Mike SHE (model domain 1 x 1 m) was used for modeling hydrological balance of the Sennianska depression considering climatic changes scenarios for future decades. Scenarios of possible trends of daily rainfall and average daily air temperature were processed based on outputs of climatic model CGCM3.1, which is the newest version of the Canadian atmosphere and ocean circulation model. Regional modification of the scenarios into the climatic stations on the Laborec River basin was developed at the Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics FMFI UK in Bratislava based on the methodology published in Lapin et al. (2006). Two emission scenarios - SRES A2 a SRES B1 have been used. The first one presents pessimistic assumption of human behavior till the year 2100, and

  15. Impact of climate change on the forests, the agroforestry systems and the wildlife

    OpenAIRE

    Quinta-Nova, L.C.

    2011-01-01

    The main impacts of climate change on wildlife are: shifts and fluctuations of habitats and habitat conditions; synergetic effects between climate change and habitat fragmentation; increase number of species threatened with extinction; and changes in the distribution of most types of vegetation. In this presentation it was addressed the synergetic effects of between climate change and habitat fragmentation.

  16. Climate system studies: final report to the U.S. Department of Energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2000-03-01

    In this final report, we summarize research on climate variability and forcing mechanisms responsible for these changes. We report on research related to high elevation climate change, changes in the hydrological cycle and the seasonality of precipitation and on changes in climatic extremes. A comprehensive bibliography of research articles and books arising from this grant is included as an appendix.

  17. Stratospheric ozone: a major (long neglected) anthropogenic forcing of the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polvani, L. M.

    2013-03-01

    As a consequence of the Montreal Protocol, the depletion stratospheric ozone by CFCs, which occurred primarily in the last decades of the 20th Century, has noticeably slowed down in recent years. For instance, the ozone hole in 2012 has been measured to be the smallest in 20 years. In view of this, it has long been thought that the ozone hole is a ``solved problem.'' What has not been appreciated until very recently is that the large man-made perturbation of stratospheric ozone has had profound consequences on the climate system in the Southern Hemisphere. In fact, a lot of evidence is now at hand strongly suggesting that ozone depletion, not increasing greenhouse gases, have been been the major driver of observed atmospheric circulation changes in the Southern Hemisphere in the second half of the 20th Century. Furthermore, climate models robustly show that the closing of the ozone hole in the next half century will actually oppose the impact of increasing greenhouse gases, and project large cancellations between these two anthropogenic forcings resulting in greatly reduced future trends in the Southern Hemisphere.

  18. New counter flow heat exchanger designed for ventilation systems in cold climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kragh, J.; Rose, J.; Nielsen, T.R.; Svendsen, S. [Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark). Dept. of Civil Engineering

    2007-11-15

    In cold climates, mechanical ventilation systems with highly efficient heat recovery will experience problems with condensing water from the extracted humid indoor air. If the condensed water changes to ice in the heat exchanger, the airflow rate will quickly fall due to the increasing pressure drop. Preheating the inlet air (outdoor air) to a temperature above zero degrees C before it enters the exchanger is one solution often used to solve the problem, however, this method reduces the energy saving potential significantly. To minimize the energy cost, a more efficient way to solve the freezing problem is therefore desirable. In this paper, the construction and test measurements of a new counter flow heat exchanger designed for cold climates are presented. The developed heat exchanger is capable of continuously defrosting itself without supplementary heating. Other advantages of the developed heat exchanger are low pressure loss, cheap materials, and a simple construction. The disadvantage is that the exchanger is big compared with other heat exchangers. In this paper, the new heat exchanger's efficiency is calculated theoretically and measured experimentally. The experiment shows that the heat exchanger is capable of continuously defrosting itself at outside air temperatures well below the freezing point while still maintaining a very high efficiency. Further analysis and development of a detailed simulation model of a counter flow air-to-air heat exchanger will be described in future articles. (author)

  19. Tidal mixing in the Indonesian Seas and its effect on the tropical climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch-Larrouy, Ariane; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Terray, Pascal; Masson, Sebastien [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN), Paris (France); Madec, Gurvan [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Laboratoire d' Oceanographie et du Climat: Experimentation et Approches Numeriques (CNRS/IRD/UPMC/MNHN), Paris (France); National Oceanographic Centre, Southampton (United Kingdom)

    2010-05-15

    The sensitivity of the tropical climate to tidal mixing in the Indonesian Archipelago (IA) is investigated using a coupled general circulation model. It is shown that the introduction of tidal mixing considerably improves water masses properties in the IA, generating fresh and cold anomalies in the thermocline and salty and cold anomalies at the surface. The subsurface fresh anomalies are advected in the Indian Ocean thermocline and ultimately surface to freshen the western part of the basin whereas surface salty anomalies are advected in the Leuwin current to salt waters along the Australian coast. The {proportional_to}0.5 C surface cooling in the IA reduces by 20% the overlying deep convection. This improves both the amount and structure of the rainfall and weakens the wind convergence over the IA, relaxes the equatorial Pacific trade winds and strengthens the winds along Java coast. These wind changes causes the thermocline to be deeper in the eastern equatorial Pacific and shallower in the eastern Indian Ocean. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude is therefore slightly reduced while the Indian Ocean Dipole/Zonal Mode (IODZM) variability increases. IODZM precursors, related to ENSO events the preceding winter in this model, are also shown to be more efficient in promoting an IODZM thanks to an enhanced wind/thermocline coupling. Changes in the coupled system in response tidal mixing are as large as those found when closing the Indonesian Throughflow, emphasizing the key role of IA on the Indo-Pacific climate. (orig.)

  20. Climate change, food systems and population health risks in their eco-social context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, A J; Butler, C D; Dixon, J

    2015-10-01

    The establishment of ecological public health as crucial to modern public health is overdue. While the basic concepts have been gestating for decades, receptivity within broader public health has been limited. This position is changing, not least as the population-level impacts of climate change and, more broadly, of limits to growth are emerging from theory and forecasting into daily reality. This paper describes several key elements of ecological public health thinking. These include the 'environmental' risks to human health (often systemic and disruptive, rather than local and toxic) posed by climate change and other forms of adverse global environmental change. Closer recognition of the links between social and environmental factors has been urged--an 'eco-social' approach--and, relatedly, for greater co-operation between social and natural sciences. The authors revisit critics of capitalism who foresaw the global capture and transformation of ecosystems for material human ends, and their resultant despoliation. The perennial call within public health to reduce vulnerability by lessening poverty is more important than ever, given the multifactored threat to the health of the poor which is anticipated, assuming no radical strategies to alleviate these pressures. But enhanced health security for the poor requires more than the reconfiguring of social determinants; it also requires, as the overarching frame, ecological public health. PMID:25896548

  1. GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data—provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)—can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography. (review article)

  2. 'Green' Submarine Cable Systems for Ocean/Climate Monitoring and Disaster Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. R.; Butler, R.; Howe, B. M.; Bueti, M. C.

    2013-12-01

    A recent joint initiative between three UN agencies is proposing to develop trans-ocean mini-observatories to measure changing seafloor ocean observables. A Joint Task Force (JTF), established in 2012 by the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) of UNESCO, is examining novel uses for submarine telecommunication cables. With ITU secretariat support, the JTF is developing a strategy and roadmap that could lead to enabling the availability of modified 'green' submarine cable systems equipped with scientific sensors (such as temperature, pressure and acceleration) for climate monitoring and disaster risk reduction (particularly tsunamis). If successful and needing support from industry and regulatory bodies, a wide network of mini-observatories could be established at many places across the world's ocean floors to measure these important parameters accurately over several decades. The initiative addresses two main issues: a) the need for sustained climate-quality data from the sparsely observed deep oceans and continental slopes but extending into coastal waters; and b) the desire to increase the reliability and integrity of the global tsunami warning networks. Presently, plans are being developed to launch a pilot project with the active involvement of cable industry players and existing ocean observatory researchers.

  3. Low cost passive cooling system for social housing in dry hot climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macias, M. [Grupo ABIO, ETSI de Caminos, Catedra de Ingenieria Sanitaria, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Gaona, J.A. [Consulter Engineer, Avenida Rosa Chacel 31, 28919 Leganes, Madrid (Spain); Luxan, J.M.; Gomez, Gloria [Architect Designers of the Building, ETSArquitectura, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid (Spain)

    2009-09-15

    The low energy approach should be the key concept in any long-term strategy aiming to build sustainability. For Madrid climate, action should be taken to reduce energy demand for heating and cooling in residential buildings. The performance of a passive cooling system was developed as a part of design work for the project of a low cost residential building. The passive cooling systems incorporate a solar chimney and precool the air by using the sanitary area of the building. The natural ventilation is enhanced with the help of the solar chimney and fresh air is cooled down by circulation within the sanitary area. The application of this system to the living rooms of a low cost residential building was evaluated and implemented. This cooling system incorporated to a residential building is the third prototype developed since 1991 by the designers. A model was developed to allow to predict the temperature of the air in the living room. The performance of the passive cooling system was evaluated based on the energy balance for a typical summer day. To reduce the energy demand in winter, a new design and window orientation has been developed and evaluated using DOE-2 simulation tool. The building has been constructed and monitored during 2006-2007. (author)

  4. Efficient heat supply and use from an energy-system and climate perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Danestig, Maria

    2009-03-15

    The aim of this thesis is to illustrate whether the heat demand in district heating systems can be seen as a resource that enables efficient energy utilization, how this can be achieved and to discuss consequences of this assumption. Based on the answers to posed research questions and on the studies included in this thesis, it is concluded that the hypothesis 'A common system approach for energy supply and heat demand will show climate and economic efficient solutions' is true. In cold-climate countries, energy for heating of buildings is essential and heating options that interplay with the power system through electricity use or generation have potential for efficiency improvements. In Sweden, district heating is used extensively, especially in large buildings but to a growing extent also for small houses. Some industrial heat loads and absorption cooling can complement space heating demand so that the production resources may be more evenly utilised during the seasons of the year. Rising electricity prices in recent years cause problems for the extensive use of electric heating in Sweden and further switching to district heating should be a possible option. To be economically favourable, district-heating systems require a certain heat load density. New low-energy houses and energy-efficiency measures in existing buildings decrease the heat demand in buildings and, thus, in district heating systems. Optimisation models have been used in several studies of large, complex energy systems. Such models allow scenarios with changing policy instruments and changed consumer behaviour to be analysed. Energy efficiency measures as well as good conditions for efficient electricity generation, which can replace old, inefficient plants, are needed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. Results when having a European energy perspective to studies of changes in Sweden differ from when having for example a Swedish energy system perspective The

  5. Impacts of Irrigation on Daily Extremes in the Coupled Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puma, Michael J.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Krakauer, Nir; Gentine, Pierre; Nazarenka, Larissa; Kelly, Maxwell; Wada, Yoshihide

    2014-01-01

    Widespread irrigation alters regional climate through changes to the energy and water budgets of the land surface. Within general circulation models, simulation studies have revealed significant changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Here we investigate the feedbacks of irrigation with a focus on daily extremes at the global scale. We simulate global climate for the year 2000 with and without irrigation to understand irrigation-induced changes. Our simulations reveal shifts in key climate-extreme metrics. These findings indicate that land cover and land use change may be an important contributor to climate extremes both locally and in remote regions including the low-latitudes.

  6. Towards the Prediction of Decadal to Centennial Climate Processes in the Coupled Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, Zhengyu [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Kutzbach, J. [Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Jacob, R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Prentice, C. [Bristol Univ. (United Kingdom)

    2011-12-05

    In this proposal, we have made major advances in the understanding of decadal and long term climate variability. (a) We performed a systematic study of multidecadal climate variability in FOAM-LPJ and CCSM-T31, and are starting exploring decadal variability in the IPCC AR4 models. (b) We develop several novel methods for the assessment of climate feedbacks in the observation. (c) We also developed a new initialization scheme DAI (Dynamical Analogue Initialization) for ensemble decadal prediction. (d) We also studied climate-vegetation feedback in the observation and models. (e) Finally, we started a pilot program using Ensemble Kalman Filter in CGCM for decadal climate prediction.

  7. Assembling Large, Multi-Sensor Climate Datasets Using the SciFlo Grid Workflow System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, B.; Manipon, G.; Xing, Z.; Fetzer, E.

    2009-04-01

    NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) is an ambitious facility for studying global climate change. The mandate now is to combine measurements from the instruments on the "A-Train" platforms (AIRS, AMSR-E, MODIS, MISR, MLS, and CloudSat) and other Earth probes to enable large-scale studies of climate change over periods of years to decades. However, moving from predominantly single-instrument studies to a multi-sensor, measurement-based model for long-duration analysis of important climate variables presents serious challenges for large-scale data mining and data fusion. For example, one might want to compare temperature and water vapor retrievals from one instrument (AIRS) to another instrument (MODIS), and to a model (ECMWF), stratify the comparisons using a classification of the "cloud scenes" from CloudSat, and repeat the entire analysis over years of AIRS data. To perform such an analysis, one must discover & access multiple datasets from remote sites, find the space/time "matchups" between instruments swaths and model grids, understand the quality flags and uncertainties for retrieved physical variables, assemble merged datasets, and compute fused products for further scientific and statistical analysis. To meet these large-scale challenges, we are utilizing a Grid computing and dataflow framework, named SciFlo, in which we are deploying a set of versatile and reusable operators for data query, access, subsetting, co-registration, mining, fusion, and advanced statistical analysis. SciFlo is a semantically-enabled ("smart") Grid Workflow system that ties together a peer-to-peer network of computers into an efficient engine for distributed computation. The SciFlo workflow engine enables scientists to do multi-instrument Earth Science by assembling remotely-invokable Web Services (SOAP or http GET URLs), native executables, command-line scripts, and Python codes into a distributed computing flow. A scientist visually authors the graph of operation in the Viz

  8. Multi-criteria analysis of combined cooling, heating and power systems in different climate zones in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang-Jiang, Wang; Chun-Fa, Zhang; You-Yin, Jing [School of Energy and Power Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding, Hebei Province 071003 (China)

    2010-04-15

    The design and operation of combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) systems are greatly dependent upon the seasonal atmospheric conditions, which determine thermal and power demands of buildings. This paper presents a mathematical analysis of CCHP system in comparison to separate system. The corresponding primary energy consumption in thermal demand management (TDM) and electrical demand management (EDM) operation modes are deduced. Three relative criteria, primary energy saving (PES), CO{sub 2} emission reduction (CO{sub 2}ER), and annual total cost saving (ATCS) are employed to evaluate the respective performances of CCHP systems for a hypothetical building in five different climate zones from the technical, environmental and economic aspects. The results indicate that CCHP system in TDM mode in the cold area, where the building requires more heating during the year, achieves more benefit over separate system while CCHP system in EDM mode suits the building having stable thermal demand in mild climate zone. (author)

  9. Earth System Grid Center for Enabling Technologies (ESG-CET): A Data Infrastructure for Data-Intensive Climate Research

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Dean N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2011-06-03

    For the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), the ESG-CET team has led international development and delivered a production environment for managing and accessing ultrascale climate data. This production environment includes multiple national and international climate projects (e.g., Couple Model Intercomparison Project, Community Earth System Model), ocean model data (such as the Parallel Ocean Program), observation data (Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, and so forth), and analysis and visualization tools, all of which serve a diverse community of users. These data holdings and services are distributed across multiple ESG-CET sites (such as LANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, and ORNL) as well as at unfunded partners sites such as the Australian National University National Computational Infrastructure, the British Atmospheric Data Centre, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, the German Climate Computing Centre, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Jet Propulsion Laboratory. More recently, ESG-CET has been extending services beyond data-file access and delivery to develop more detailed information products (scientific graphics, animations, etc.), secure binary data-access services (based upon the OPeNDAP protocol), and server-side analysis capabilities. These will allow users to request data subsets transformed through commonly used analysis and intercomparison procedures. As we transition from development activities to production and operations, the ESG-CET team is tasked with making data available to all users seeking to understand, process, extract value from, visualize, and/or communicate it to others. This ongoing effort, though daunting in scope and complexity, will greatly magnify the value of numerical climate model outputs and climate observations for future national and international climate-assessment reports

  10. Extreme Climate Variations from Milankovitch-like Eccentricity Oscillations in Extrasolar Planetary Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Spiegel, David S

    2010-01-01

    Although our solar system features predominantly circular orbits, the exoplanets discovered so far indicate that this is the exception rather than the rule. This could have crucial consequences for exoplanet climates, both because eccentric terrestrial exoplanets could have extreme seasonal variation, and because giant planets on eccentric orbits could excite Milankovitch-like variations of a potentially habitable terrestrial planet,\\"A\\^os eccentricity, on timescales of thousands-to-millions of years. A particularly interesting implication concerns the fact that the Earth is thought to have gone through at least one globally frozen, "snowball" state in the last billion years that it presumably exited after several million years of buildup of greenhouse gases when the ice-cover shut off the carbonate-silicate cycle. Water-rich extrasolar terrestrial planets with the capacity to host life might be at risk of falling into similar snowball states. Here we show that if a terrestrial planet has a giant companion o...

  11. Using Corporate Social Responsibility strategy with a climate focus for Enterprise Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zambach, Sine; Holst, Philip; Francker, Zenia Worm

     Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) as a term has existed for only a couple of decades but in practice CSR has existed for more than 100 years. Through the 90's, CSR became common among businesses while evolving from a philanthropic to a pragmatic dimension. Recent research suggests a...... customized and integrated with respect to human resources such as time-accounting, map of competencies, and other events related to employee-care. We propose a new concept on ERP called environmental ERP, which combines the climate aspect of CSR with the ERP-system. The purpose of this is to integrate...... additionally create financial and social value to the company that utilizes ERP which will retain for example optimization of logistics and a decrease of CO2 emission.  Finally, a legal regulation in 2009 requires the 1000 largest companies in Denmark to inform about their CSR-activities, which could be...

  12. District heating systems between competition protection and climate protection; Die Fernwaermenetze zwischen Wettbewerbs- und Klimaschutz

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koerber, Torsten [Goettingen Univ. (Germany). Lehrstuhl fuer Buergerliches Recht, Kartellrecht, Versicherungs-, Gesellschafts- und Regulierungsrecht

    2012-10-15

    In principle, district heating systems come in the application area of paragraph 19 sect. 4 no. 4 GWB (law against competitive restrictions). However, this regulation has to be interpreted with respect to the legislation of the Court of Justice of the European Union (Luxemburg) to 'essential facilities'. According to this, the claim for antitrust access can be affirmed only in exceptional circumstances. Within the application of this regulation, property rights, competition protection, investment competition, innovation competition as well as energy political evaluations of the energy law under special consideration of ecologic and climate political targets are considered. This has to occur within the testing of the reasonability with respect to paragraph 19 sect. 4 no. 2 GWB. The particularities of the district heating.

  13. Theoretical energy saving analysis of air conditioning system using heat pipe heat exchanger for Indian climatic zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.S. Jadhav

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Heat pipe heat exchanger (HPHX is an excellent device used for heat recovery in air conditioning systems. The Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC – Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE India classifies Indian climatic zones into five categories viz., Hot and Dry (e.g. Ahmedabad, Jodhpur etc, Warm and Humid (e.g. Mumbai, Chennai etc, Composite (e.g. Nagpur, Jaipur etc, Cold (e.g. Guwahati etc and Temperate (e.g. Bengaluru etc. The literature review indicated that very limited information is available on annual energy saving analysis of air conditioning system with HPHX for Indian climatic zones. The paper investigates the possible energy savings using HPHX for heat recovery in air conditioning system for Indian climatic zones. The analysis is carried out for total 25 Indian cities representing different climatic zones. The analysis is performed for a 6 row HPHX and assuming outdoor air quantity as 1 m3/s, return air dry bulb temperature as 23 °C and compressor power as 1 kW/TR. This paper discusses the use of HPHX only for the heat recovery application (exchange of sensible heat between fresh outdoor air and conditioned return air. The annual energy savings with HPHX for a particular city is calculated for number of hours when outdoor air dry bulb temperature exceeds 25 °C. The maximum energy saving potential is revealed for hot and dry, warm and humid and composite Indian climatic zones.

  14. Adaptation, Spatial Heterogeneity, and the Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems to Climate Change and CO2 Fertilization: An Integrated Assessment Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this paper we develop economic measures of vulnerability to climate change with and without adaptation in agricultural production systems. We implement these measures using coupled, site-specific ecosystem and economic simulation models. This modeling approach has two key features needed to study the response of agricultural production systems to climate change: it represents adaptation as an endogenous, non-marginal economic response to climate change; and it provides the capability to represent the spatial variability in bio-physical and economic conditions that interact with adaptive responses. We apply this approach to the dryland grain production systems of the Northern Plains region of the United States. The results support the hypothesis that the most adverse impacts on net returns distributions tend to occur in the areas with the poorest resource endowments and when mitigating effects of CO2 fertilization and adaptation are absent. We find that relative and absolute measures of vulnerability depend on complex interactions between climate change, CO2 level, adaptation, and economic conditions such as relative output prices. The relationship between relative vulnerability and resource endowments varies with assumptions about climate change, adaptation, and economic conditions. Vulnerability measured with respect to an absolute threshold is inversely related to resource endowments in all cases investigated

  15. Solar Irradiance Variability and Its Impacts on the Earth Climate System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harder, J. W.; Woods, T. N.

    The Sun plays a vital role in the evolution of the climates of terrestrial planets. Observations of the solar spectrum are now routinely made that span the wavelength range from the X-ray portion of the spectrum (5 nm) into the infrared to about 2400 nm. Over this very broad wavelength range, accounting for about 97% of the total solar irradiance, the intensity varies by more than 6 orders of magnitude, requiring a suite of very different and innovative instruments to determine both the spectral irradiance and its variability. The origins of solar variability are strongly linked to surface magnetic field changes, and analysis of solar images and magnetograms show that the intensity of emitted radiation from solar surface features in active regions has a very strong wavelength and magnetic field strength dependence. These magnetic fields produce observable solar surface features such as sunspots, faculae, and network structures that contribute in different ways to the radiated output. Semi-empirical models of solar spectral irradiance are able to capture much of the Sun's output, but this topic remains an active area of research. Studies of solar structures in both high spectral and spatial resolution are refining this understanding. Advances in Earth observation systems and high-quality three-dimensional chemical climate models provide a sound methodology to study the mechanisms of the interaction between Earth's atmosphere and the incoming solar radiation. Energetic photons have a profound effect on the chemistry and dynamics of the thermosphere and ionosphere, and these processes are now well represented in upper atmospheric models. In the middle and lower atmosphere the effects of solar variability enter the climate system through two nonexclusive pathways referred to as the top-down and bottom-up mechanisms. The top-down mechanism proceeds through the alteration of the photochemical rates that establish the middle atmospheric temperature structure and

  16. How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

    2016-04-01

    The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

  17. Climate Science, Development Practice, and Policy Interactions in Dryland Agroecological Systems