WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change temperatures

  1. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    OpenAIRE

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-01-01

    The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the ...

  2. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the geothermal one, which is deposited mainly in the epidermal parts of caves.

  3. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  4. Changes in Soil Temperature Regimes under Regional Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, S. W.

    2013-12-01

    Soil temperatures can provide a smoothed record of regional changes in atmospheric conditions due to soil thermal properties that reduce the annual air and surface temperature amplitude. In areas with seasonal snow cover, however, its insulating effect isolates the soil thermal regime from winter air temperatures. Under changing regional climate patterns, snow cover extent, depth and duration are decreasing. The net effect is thus an expected winter cooling of soil temperature. However, the extent to which this might be mitigated by warmer summer conditions, and changing soil moisture remains to be seen. To examine the relative strength of a cold-season cooling signal versus enhanced summer warming, a network of soil temperature loggers has recorded hourly soil temperatures over the period 2005-2013 within a single watershed experiencing 'lake effect snow'. Elevations range from 168 m to 612 m, on Silurian and Ordovician shale, limestone, and sandstone that have been heavily glaciated. Most of the sites are located on NY Department of Environmental Conservation land in mixed, hardwood and spruce forests. At six sites in varied topographic and land-use setting, two ONSET HOBO Outdoor 4 channel soil temperature loggers are deployed in order to reduce concerns of data reliability and systematic logger drift. Five sites also record air temperature using HOBO Pro Series Temperature loggers at three sites and HOBO Weather Stations at two. Soil temperature data are recorded at hourly intervals at depths of 2-, 5-, 10-, and 25-cm. Several other sites have been operationalized over the 8 year period, but have been tampered with, damaged, stolen, or have failed. These partial records are included to provide greater geographic representation of changing conditions where possible. Data indicate decreasing winter soil temperatures in specific land-use and topographic settings. Only one site, located in a dense spruce plantation, experiences soil freezing within the top 5 cm

  5. Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jeong-Hyeong LEE; Byungsoo KIM; Keon-Tae SOHN; Won-Tae KOWN; Seung-Ki MIN

    2005-01-01

    Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO42-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SOl- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the direct cooling effect of SO42- played a less important role (0% 7%) than the CO2effect. The prediction of surface temperature change was estimated from the second CO2+SO24- scenario run of ECHAM4/OPYC3 which has the least error in the simulation of the present-day temperature field near the Korean Peninsula. The result shows that the area-mean surface temperature near the Korean Peninsula will increase by about 1.1° by the 2040s relative to the 1990s.

  6. Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Budong; Gregorich, Edward G.; Gameda, Sam; Hopkins, David W.; Wang, Xiaolan L.

    2011-01-01

    Trends in soil temperature are important, but rarely reported, indicators of climate change. On the basis of the soil temperature data from 30 climate stations across Canada during 1958-2008, trends in soil temperatures at 5, 10, 20, 50, 100, and 150 cm depths were analyzed, together with atmospheric variables, such as air temperature, precipitation, and depth of snow on the ground, observed at the same locations. There was a significant positive trend with soil temperatures in spring and summer means, but not for the winter and annual means. A positive trend with time in soil temperature was detected at about two-thirds of the stations at all depths below 5 cm. A warming trend of 0.26-0.30°C/decade was consistently detected in spring (March-April-May) at all depths between 1958 and 2008. The warming trend in soil temperatures was associated with trends in air temperatures and snow cover depth over the same period. A significant decreasing trend in snow cover depth in winter and spring was associated with increasing air temperatures. The combined effects of the higher air temperature and reduced snow depth probably resulted in an enhanced increasing trend in spring soil temperatures, but no significant trends in winter soil temperatures. The thermal insulation by snow cover appeared to play an important role in the response of soil temperatures to climate change and must be accounted for in projecting future soil-related impacts of climate change.

  7. Assessing climate change. Temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rapp, Donald

    2008-07-01

    In ASSESSING CLIMATE CHANGE Donald Rapp has investigated a large body of scientific data relevant to climate change, approaching each element with necessary (but neutral) scientific skepticism. The chapters of the book attempt to answer a number of essential questions in relation to global warming and climate change. He begins by showing how the earth's climate has varied in the past, discussing ice ages, the Holocene period since the end of the last ice age, particularly during the past 1000 years. He investigates the reliability of ''proxies'' for historical temperatures and assesses the hockey stick version of global temperatures for the past millennium. To do this effectively he looks carefully at how well near surface temperatures of land and ocean on earth have been monitored during the past 100 years or more, and looks at the utility and significance of a single global average temperature. Topics such as the variability of the Sun and the Earth's heat balance are discussed in considerable detail. The author also investigates how the current global warming trend compares with past fluctuations in earth's climate and what is the likelihood that the warming trend we are experiencing now is primarily just another in a series of natural climate fluctuations as opposed to a direct result of human activities. A key factor in understanding what may happen in the future is to examine the credibility of the global climate models which claim that greenhouse gases produce most of the temperature rise of the 20th Century, and forecast much greater impacts in the century ahead. Finally, the book considers future global energy requirements, fossil fuel usage and carbon dioxide production, public policy relating to global warming, and agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol. (orig.)

  8. Temperature extremes in Europe: mechanisms and responses to climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Europe witnessed a spate of record-breaking warm seasons during the 2000's. As illustrated by the devastating heat-wave of the summer 2003, these episodes induced strong societal and environmental impacts. Such occurrence of exceptional events over a relatively short time period raised up many questionings in the present context of climate change. In particular, can recent temperature extremes be considered as 'previews' of future climate conditions? Do they result from an increasing temperature variability? These questions constitute the main motivations of this thesis. Thus, our work aims to contribute to the understanding of physical mechanisms responsible for seasonal temperature extremes in Europe, in order to anticipate their future statistical characteristics. Involved processes are assessed by both statistical data-analysis of observations and climate projections and regional modeling experiments. First we show that while the inter-annual European temperature variability appears driven by disturbances in the North-Atlantic dynamics, the recent warming is likely to be dissociated with potential circulation changes. This inconsistency climaxes during the exceptionally mild autumn of 2006, whose temperature anomaly is only half explained by the atmospheric flow. Recent warm surface conditions in the North-Atlantic ocean seem to substantially contribute to the European warming in autumn-winter, through the establishment of advective and radiative processes. In spring-summer, since both advection by the westerlies and Atlantic warming are reduced, more local processes appear predominant (e.g. soil moisture, clouds, aerosols). Then the issue of future evolution of the relationship between North-Atlantic dynamics and European temperatures is addressed, based on climate projections of the International Panel on Climate Change. Multi-model analysis, using both flow-analogues and weather regimes methods, show that the inconsistency noticed over recent decades is

  9. Global Stream Temperatures and Flows under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Vliet, M. T.; Yearsley, J. R.; Franssen, W. H.; Ludwig, F.; Haddeland, I.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Kabat, P.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change will affect thermal and hydrologic regimes of rivers, having a direct impact on human water use and freshwater ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of climate change on stream temperature and streamflow globally. We used a physically-based stream temperature river basin model (RBM) linked to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. The modelling framework was adapted for global application including impacts of reservoirs and thermal heat discharges, and was validated using observed water temperature and river discharge records in large river basins globally. VIC-RBM was forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected Global Climate Model (GCM) output resulting in global projections of daily streamflow and water temperature for the 21st century. Global mean and high (95th percentile) stream temperatures are projected to increase on average by 0.8-1.6 (1.0-2.2)°C for the SRES B1-A2 scenario for 2071-2100 relative to 1971-2000. The largest water temperature increases are projected for Europe, North America, Southeast Asia, South Africa and parts of Australia. In these regions, the sensitivities for warming are exacerbated by projected decreases in summer low flows. Large increases in water temperature combined with decreases in low flows are found for the southeastern U.S., Europe and eastern China. These regions could potentially be affected by increased deterioration of water quality and freshwater habitats, and reduced water available for beneficial uses such as thermoelectric power production.

  10. Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Briga; Simon Verhulst

    2015-01-01

    Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days), we show that mortality rate increases almost two-fold per 1°C increase in diurnal temperature range (DTR). Interestingly, the DTR effect differed between two groups with low versus high experimenta...

  11. Climate change impacts on the temperature of recharge water in a temporate climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murdock, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater outflows into headwater streams play an important role in controlling local stream temperature and maintaining habitat for cool and cold water fisheries. Because of the ecological and economic importance of these fisheries, there is significant concern about the impacts of climate change on these habitats. Many studies of stream temperature changes under climate change assume that groundwater outflows will vary with long-term mean air temperature, perhaps with a temporal lag to account for the relatively slow rate of heat diffusion through soils. This assumption, however, ignores the fact that climate change will also impact the temporal patterns of recharge in some regions. In Southern Wisconsin, much of the annual recharge comes from the spring snowmelt event, as a large amount of meltwater is released onto saturated soils with little to no active transpiration. Using the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model populated with climate date from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), we show that the temperature of water passing below the rooting zone in a simulated corn planting in Southern Wisconsin will change significantly less than the air temperature by midcentury. This finding highlights the importance of understanding the variability of heat flow mechanisms in the subsurface while assessing climate change impacts on surface water resources. In landscapes such as Wisconsin's driftless area, where deep aquifers feed numerous localized headwater streams, meltwater-driven recharge may provide a buffer against rising air temperatures for some time into the future. Fully understanding this dynamic will allow for targeted conservation efforts in those streams that are likely to show higher than average resilience to rising temperatures, but which remain vulnerable to development, stormwater runoff, agricultural pollution and other ecological threats. In a world with dwindling coldwater resources, identifying and

  12. Climate change and persistent high temperatures: does it matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Aral, Mustafa M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change may affect the behavior of various systems on earth, one of which is human population. In the current literature, it is hypothesized that anthropogenic impacts on earth may yield persistent and adverse climatic conditions which may become the norm rather than an exception. Given these climatic conditions, the world population may lose its stability and these climate conditions may trigger population shifts that may be characterized by regional migration patterns or loss of popu...

  13. CLIMATE CHANGE AND PERSISTENT HIGH TEMPERATURES: DOES IT MATTER?

    OpenAIRE

    Aral, Mustafa M.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change may affect the behavior of various systems on earth, one of which is human population. In the current literature, it is hypothesized that anthropogenic impacts on earth may yield persistent and adverse climatic conditions which may become the norm rather than an exception. Given these climatic conditions, the world population may lose its stability and these climate conditions may trigger population shifts that may be characterized by regional migration patterns or loss of popu...

  14. The river temperature changes follows the climate variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The temperature of the river water is a dynamical characteristic affected by the geophysical processes- and climate characteristics of the catchment area, as well as the hydrological processes of the runoff formation and movement. The knowledge about the river water is very important when the water losses for transpiration are concerned. One should add that the river pollution problems, the self purification, the potable water supply require this information also. We consider the temperature of the river water as a very important parameter for diversity of ecological studies and research. It is a general practice to accept that the river water temperature is rather homogeneous across any profile because of the turbulent mass exchange. The temperature stratification is a matter of concern in limnology and oceanology studies mainly. We have shown several basic regularities about the cyclic feature of the daily and seasonal changes or about the river water temperature and both the altitude of the catchment area (gradient 1oC per a 100 m) and so on. After the mean water temperatures on any hydro metric gauge stations are being determined the area patterns with equal temperatures are identified, thus drawing a map. It is a presumption that the river water temperatures inside a specific area are equal on any place, meaning that the temperature field is rather homogeneous. The mapping allowed to distinguish the river reaches, subjected to the anthropogenic impact. The study and the map have been developed on the basis of the new hydro metric information data bank, composed recently by the authors.(Author)

  15. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  16. Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    The IJOEM

    2010-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathways could stabilise the global average atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) at 450 ppm, the level which has a 50% chance of keeping the temperature rise to 2 oC? What policies are nee...

  17. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  18. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  19. Can air temperature be used to project influences of climate change on stream temperature?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we examined the performance of two widely used linear and nonlinear regression models that predict stream temperatures based on air temperatures. We evaluated model performance and temporal stability of model parameters in a suite of regulated and unregulated streams with 11–44 years of stream temperature data. Although such models may have validity when predicting stream temperatures within the span of time that corresponds to the data used to develop them, model predictions did not transfer well to other time periods. Validation of model predictions of most recent stream temperatures, based on air temperature–stream temperature relationships from previous time periods often showed poor performance when compared with observed stream temperatures. Overall, model predictions were less robust in regulated streams and they frequently failed in detecting the coldest and warmest temperatures within all sites. In many cases, the magnitude of errors in these predictions falls within a range that equals or exceeds the magnitude of future projections of climate-related changes in stream temperatures reported for the region we studied (between 0.5 and 3.0 °C by 2080). The limited ability of regression-based statistical models to accurately project stream temperatures over time likely stems from the fact that underlying processes at play, namely the heat budgets of air and water, are distinctive in each medium and vary among localities and through time. (letter)

  20. Changes in zonal surface temperature gradients and Walker circulations in a wide range of climates

    CERN Document Server

    Merlis, Timothy M

    2010-01-01

    Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The asymmetry in the tropical climate is generated by an imposed ocean energy flux, which does not vary with climate. The range of climates is simulated by modifying the optical thickness of an idealized longwave absorber (representing greenhouse gases). The zonal surface temperature gradient in low latitudes generally decreases as the climate warms in the idealized GCM simulations. A scaling relationship based on a two-term balance in the surface energy budget accounts for the changes in the zonally asymmetric component of the GCM-simulated surface temperature gradients. As in comprehensive simulations of climate change, the Walker circulation weakens as the climate warms in the idealized simulations. The wide range of climates allows a systematic test of energetic ar...

  1. Past temperature reconstructions from deep ice cores: relevance for future climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Dreyfus, G.; P. Braconnot; Johnsen, S.; J. Jouzel; Kageyama, M.; Landais, A; Loutre, M.-F.; J. Nouet; F. Parrenin; D. Raynaud; Stenni, B; E. Tuenter

    2006-01-01

    International audience Ice cores provide unique archives of past climate and environmental changes based only on physical processes. Quantitative temperature reconstructions are essential for the comparison between ice core records and climate models. We give an overview of the methods that have been developed to reconstruct past local temperatures from deep ice cores and highlight several points that are relevant for future climate change. We first analyse the long term fluctuations of t...

  2. People as sensors: mass media and local temperature influence climate change discussion on Twitter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Molodtsova, T.; Stepchenkova, S.

    2014-12-01

    We examined whether people living under significant temperature anomalies connect their sensory experiences to climate change and the role that media plays in this process. We used Twitter messages containing words "climate change" and "global warming" as the indicator of attention that public pays to the issue. Specifically, the goals were: (1) to investigate whether people immediately notice significant local weather anomalies and connect them to climate change and (2) to examine the role of mass media in this process. Over 2 million tweets were collected for a two-year period (2012 - 2013) and were assigned to 157 urban areas in the continental USA (Figure 1). Geographical locations of the tweets were identified with a geolocation resolving algorithm based the profile of the users. Daily number of tweets (tweeting rate) was computed for 157 conterminous USA urban areas and adjusted for data acquisition errors. The USHCN daily minimum and maximum temperatures were obtained for the station locations closest to the centers of the urban areas and the 1981-2010 30-year temperature mean and standard deviation were used as the climate normals. For the analysis, we computed the following indices for each day of 2012 - 2013 period: standardized temperature anomaly, absolute standardized temperature anomaly, and extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies for each urban zone. The extreme cold and hot temperature anomalies were then transformed into country-level values that represent the number of people living in extreme temperature conditions. The rate of tweeting on climate change was regressed on the time variables, number of climate change publications in the mass media, and temperature. In the majority of regression models, the mass media and temperature variables were significant at the pmediator in the relationship between local weather and climate change discourse intensity. Our analysis of Twitter data confirmed that the public is able to recognize extreme

  3. Geothermal climate change observatory in south India 1: Borehole temperatures and inferred surface temperature histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akkiraju, Vyasulu V.; Roy, Sukanta

    Temperature-depth profiles measured in boreholes contain records of changes in surface ground temperature over the past few centuries. We have recently set up a geothermal climate change observatory at the Choutuppal campus of National Geophysical Research Institute (17.29 °N, 78.92 °E) to measure subsurface temperature changes on annual to decadal timescales and quantify how well they track surface temperature changes. The site is located about 60 km to the east of Hyderabad in south India, in a designated reserved forest land and far from potential urban heat islands. In April 2009, two boreholes were drilled to depths of 210 m and 21 m respectively after careful site selection to minimize perturbations to the subsurface temperatures on account of groundwater flow in the borehole, large thermal conductivity contrasts and rugged topography. Temperature measurements in the two holes are being carried out periodically. Analysis of equilibrium temperature-depth profile in the 210 m deep borehole reveals at least two ongoing events that started during the past Century: (i) surface ground warming of 0.5 ± 0.1 °C over the past 92 ± 7 years, and (ii) a more recent cooling of ∼1 °C over the past ∼39 years, probably representing local changes to surface vegetation caused by the presence of a thicker grass cover throughout the year inside the campus since 1967 AD compared to the short cropping of grass outside it. The inferred surface ground warming is consistent with estimates from temperature measurements in three other boreholes (170-300 m deep) distributed in a 10 × 5 km 2 area in the vicinity of the observatory (mean: 0.5 ± 0.1 °C over the past 93 ± 21 years), and is characteristic of the Interior Peninsula region of south India.

  4. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  5. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  6. Soil erosion under climate change: simulatingthe response of temperature and rainfall changes in three UK catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampalini, Rossano; Walker-Springett, Kate J.; Constantine, José Antonio; Hales, Tristram C.

    2015-04-01

    Soil erosion by water cost in environmental damages across the Great Britain is estimated in over £200m (2014 GBP) each year and could increase for the effect of climate change. Assessing the potential for increased climate-driven soil erosion, due to the several water processes involved (e.g., infiltration excess, return flow, direct precipitation onto saturated soil),is recognizedas a complex task. Climate change can have a positive and direct effect on soil erosionsuch the case of increasing rainfall in amount and intensity, or an indirect effect through the variation of the atmospheric CO2 level, which can improve plant productivityandwater infiltration capacity of soil reducing the likelihood of soil erosion. Changes in vegetation patterns and typologies with a different protection effect can lead also the soil system to dramatic changes in soil erosion rates, potentially amplifying or ameliorating the direct effects of climate change.Climate, vegetation and soil erosion are thus connected and several feedback effects could be accounted in the study of global change. Understanding these interactions may be a primary goal for clarifying the impact of global change on soil erosion and its consequences on related soil functions such as water and organic carbon storage support to vegetation and agricultural production. In this research, focused on three UK catchments (i.e. Conwy, 627 km2, Wales; Ehen, 225 km2, England; and Dee, 2100 km2, Scotland), we simulated soil erosionapplying SRES climatic scenarios(IPCC, 2000) for different CO2 emission levels. We modelled using Pesera "The Pan European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment" (Kirkby et al., 2004), a model for vegetation growing and soil erosion evaluation at regional scale. For each catchment,we realised a sensitivity - analysis - like test investigating different increments in temperature and rainfall, then, we compared the results of the SRES scenarios with the issues of the parametric sensitivity analysis. The

  7. Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heiri, Oliver; Brooks, Stephen J.; Renssen, Hans; Bedford, Alan; Hazekamp, Marjolein; Ilyashuk, Boris; Jeffers, Elizabeth S.; Lang, Barbara; Kirilova, Emiliya; Kuiper, Saskia; Millet, Laurent; Samartin, Stéphanie; Toth, Monika; Verbruggen, Frederike; Watson, Jenny E.; van Asch, Nelleke; Lammertsma, Emmy; Amon, Leeli; Birks, Hilary H.; Birks, H. John B.; Mortensen, Morten F.; Hoek, Wim Z.; Magyari, Enikö; Sobrino, Castor Muñoz; Seppä, Heikki; Tinner, Willy; Tonkov, Spassimir; Veski, Siim; Lotter, André F.

    2014-01-01

    Comparisons of climate model hindcasts with independent proxy data are essential for assessing model performance in non-analogue situations. However, standardized paleoclimate datasets for assessing the spatial pattern of past climatic change across continents are lacking for some of the most dynamic episodes of Earth's recent past. Here we present a new chironomid-based paleotemperature dataset designed to assess climate model hindcasts of regional summer temperature change in Europe during the late-glacial and early Holocene. Latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of inferred temperature change are in excellent agreement with simulations by the ECHAM-4 model, implying that atmospheric general circulation models like ECHAM-4 can successfully predict regionally diverging temperature trends in Europe, even when conditions differ significantly from present. However, ECHAM-4 infers larger amplitudes of change and higher temperatures during warm phases than our paleotemperature estimates, suggesting that this and similar models may overestimate past and potentially also future summer temperature changes in Europe. PMID:25208610

  8. Assessing the Influence of Precipitation on Diurnal Temperature Range Changes: Implications for Climate Change Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Hoof, C.; Garreaud, R.

    2014-12-01

    . Braganza, D.J. Karoly, and J.M. Arblaster. Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 31:1-4, 2004. [2] A. Dai, A.D. Del Genio, and I.Y. Fung. Clouds, precipitation and temperature range. Nature, 386:665-666, 1997.

  9. Dynamic temperature dependence patterns in future energy demand models in the context of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hekkenberg, M.; Moll, H.C.; Schoot Uiterkamp, A.J.M.

    2009-01-01

    Energy demand depends on outdoor temperature in a 'u' shaped fashion. Various studies have used this temperature dependence to investigate the effects of climate change on energy demand. Such studies contain implicit or explicit assumptions to describe expected socio-economic changes that may affect

  10. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  11. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  12. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. - Highlights: • A stream temperature model was calibrated for three streams in northern Wisconsin. • The effect of climate change on stream temperature was simulated in each stream. • Annual average stream temperature was projected to rise from 1 to 3 °C by 2100. • Forecasts of stream temperature exceeded optimal ranges for brook trout

  13. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selbig, William R., E-mail: wrselbig@usgs.gov

    2015-07-15

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. - Highlights: • A stream temperature model was calibrated for three streams in northern Wisconsin. • The effect of climate change on stream temperature was simulated in each stream. • Annual average stream temperature was projected to rise from 1 to 3 °C by 2100. • Forecasts of stream temperature exceeded optimal ranges for brook trout.

  14. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  15. Climate change and parasite transmission: how temperature affects parasite infectivity via predation on infective stages

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goedknegt, M.A.; Welsh, J.E.; Drent, J.; Thieltges, D.W.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect disease risk in many parasite-host systems, e.g., via an effect of temperature on infectivity (temperature effects). However, recent studies indicate that ambient communities can lower disease risk for hosts, for instance via predation on free-living stages of pa

  16. Effects of Climate Change on Temperature and Salinity in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of a larger study to examine the effect of climate change (CC) on estuarine resources, we simulated the effect of rising sea level, alterations in river discharge, and increasing atmospheric temperatures on water properties (temperature and salinity) in the Yaquina Estuar...

  17. Past temperature reconstructions from deep ice cores: relevance for future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Masson-Delmotte

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Ice cores provide unique archives of past climate and environmental changes based only on physical processes. Quantitative temperature reconstructions are essential for the comparison between ice core records and climate models. We give an overview of the methods that have been developed to reconstruct past local temperatures from deep ice cores and highlight several points that are relevant for future climate change. We first analyse the long term fluctuations of temperature as depicted in the long Antarctic record from EPICA Dome C. The long term imprint of obliquity changes in the EPICA Dome C record is highlighted and compared to simulations conducted with the ECBILT-CLIO intermediate complexity climate model. We discuss the comparison between the current interglacial period and the long interglacial corresponding to marine isotopic stage 11, ~400 kyr BP. Previous studies had focused on the role of precession and the thresholds required to induce glacial inceptions. We suggest that, due to the low eccentricity configuration of MIS 11 and the Holocene, the effect of precession on the incoming solar radiation is damped and that changes in obliquity must be taken into account. The EPICA Dome C alignment of terminations I and VI published in 2004 corresponds to a phasing of the obliquity signals. A conjunction of low obliquity and minimum northern hemisphere summer insolation is not found in the next tens of thousand years, supporting the idea of an unusually long interglacial ahead. As a second point relevant for future climate change, we discuss the magnitude and rate of change of past temperatures reconstructed from Greenland (NorthGRIP and Antarctic (Dome C ice cores. Past episodes of temperatures above the present-day values by up to 5°C are recorded at both locations during the penultimate interglacial period. The rate of polar warming simulated by coupled climate models forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year is compared to ice

  18. Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2014-04-01

    Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction.

  19. Changing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe's Climate of the 20th Century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Tank, Albertus Maria Gerardus

    2004-01-01

    This thesis aims at increasing the knowledge on past changes in extremes through the analysis of historical records of observations at meteorological stations. The key question addressed is: How did the extremes of daily surface air temperature and precipitation change in Europe's climate of the

  20. Past temperature reconstructions from deep ice cores: relevance for future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Masson-Delmotte

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available Ice cores provide unique archives of past climate and environmental changes based only on physical processes. Quantitative temperature reconstructions are essential for the comparison between ice core records and climate models. Several methods have been developed to reconstruct past local temperatures from deep ice cores.

    Here we first analyse the long term fluctuations of temperature as depicted in the long Antarctic record from EPICA Dome C. The long term imprint of obliquity changes in the EPICA Dome C record is highlighted and compared to simulations conducted with the ECBILT-CLIO intermediate complexity climate model. We discuss the comparison between the current interglacial period and the long interglacial corresponding to marine isotopic stage 11, ~400 kyr BP. Previous studies had focused on the role of precession and the thresholds required to induce glacial inceptions. We suggest that, due to the low eccentricity configuration of MIS 11 and the Holocene, the effect of precession on the incoming solar radiation is damped and that changes in obliquity must be taken into account. The EPICA Dome C alignment of terminations I and VI published in 2004 corresponds to a phasing of the obliquity signals. A conjunction of low obliquity and minimum northern hemisphere summer insolation is not found in the next tens of thousand years, supporting the idea of an unusually long interglacial ahead.

    As a second point relevant for future climate change, we discuss the magnitude and rate of change of past temperatures reconstructed from Greenland (NorthGRIP and Antarctic (Dome C ice cores. Past episodes of temperatures above the present-day values by up to 5°C are recorded at both locations during the penultimate interglacial period. The polar warming simulated by coupled climate models forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year is compared to ice-core-based temperature reconstructions. In Antarctica, the CO2-induced warming

  1. Transition process of abrupt climate change based on global sea surface temperature over the past century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Pengcheng; Hou, Wei; Feng, Guolin

    2016-05-01

    A new detection method has been proposed to study the transition process of abrupt climate change. With this method, the climate system transiting from one stable state to another can be verified clearly. By applying this method to the global sea surface temperature over the past century, several climate changes and their processes are detected, including the start state (moment), persist time, and end state (moment). According to the spatial distribution, the locations of climate changes mainly have occurred in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific before the middle twentieth century, in the 1970s in the equatorial middle-eastern Pacific, and in the middle and southern Pacific since the end of the twentieth century. In addition, the quantitative relationship between the transition process parameters is verified in theory and practice: (1) the relationship between the rate and stability parameters is linear, and (2) the relationship between the rate and change amplitude parameters is quadratic.

  2. Modeling the impact of changes in Atlantic sea surface temperature on the climate of West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeniyi, Mojisola O.

    2016-08-01

    This study assesses the impacts of warming/cooling of the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on the climate of West Africa using Version 4.4 of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. The 1-2 K cooling and warming of the Atlantic SST both result in tripole temperature and precipitation change structure, having a northwest-southeast orientation over West Africa. Findings reveal that the responses of precipitation and temperature to the Atlantic SST cooling are opposite to those for the Atlantic SST warming and these responses intensify with increased warming/cooling of the Atlantic SST. The structure of the change in climate is attributed to the response of atmospheric/soil moisture gradient and orientation of orography in West Africa.

  3. On the impact of climate change on surface water temperature of Lake Garda

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, Sebastiano; Toffolon, Marco; Sighel, Maria-Caterina; Bresciani, Mariano

    2013-04-01

    Lakes have been widely recognized as important sentinels for climate change. Indeed, physical, chemical, and biological properties of limnic systems have been observed to respond rapidly to climate-related modifications. Inspired by studies on climate change, during the last decades a lot of research has been conducted to investigate past and predict future responses of lakes to changing climate and environmental conditions. In particular, a major concern is to assess and quantify the effect of climate on water temperature, which represents one of the key parameters determining ecological conditions within a lake, as it influences both chemical and biological processes. In turn, lake's thermal budget is strongly controlled by the temperature of surface water (i.e. epilimnion), which is regulated by climate conditions. In this work, a simple physically-based, semi-empirical lumped model is used to estimate surface water temperature (SWT). It requires only air temperature as input information and accounts for the overall heat exchanges with the atmosphere and the deeper layer of the lake (i.e. hypolimnion) by means of simplified relationships, which contain a few parameters to be calibrated. The model has been shown to be capable of reproducing both seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations with high performances (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index ? 0.9), over long-term simulation periods (i.e. decades). These results and the physical interpretation of the model parameters suggest this semi-empirical model as a valuable tool for climate change applications as well. The model has been applied to Lake Garda, the largest lake in Italy (surface area: 370 km2, volume: 50 km3 and maximum depth: 346 m). A Monte Carlo approach has been used for calibration, in which 108 different sets of parameters have been randomly chosen and tested. The calibration period ranges from 2004 to 2010, during which air temperature and SWT data are available. Air temperature is provided by a

  4. Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

    1998-12-01

    Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

  5. Climate Dynamics and Global Change: Temperature, Precipitation, and Circulation in GFDL Aqua-Planet Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinh, T.; Fueglistaler, S.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical experiments are carried out using the GFDL General Circulation Model to assess climate sensitivity associated with CO2 increase and surface warming. This work is motivated by the calculation by Cess and Potter (1988, JGR), who proposed that surface temperature perturbations may be used as a surrogate for climate change induced by CO2 increase.We compare climatic changes due to CO2 increase in slab-ocean simulations with changes forced by surface warming in prescribed-surface-temperature simulations with fixed CO2 (Cess-type experiments). We found that slab-ocean and Cess-type experiments give the same rates of change per degree surface warming for the global atmosphere temperature and circulation strength. However, the global precipitation increases almost twice as slowly in slab-ocean runs (1.5%/K) when compared to Cess-type runs (2.8%/K). Therefore, we caution that Cess-type experiments may not be suitable for studying global precipitation change under climate change.

  6. Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bale, J.S.; Masters, G.J.; Hodkinson, I.D.; Awmack, C.; Bezemer, T.M.; Brown, V.K.; Butterfield, J.; Buse, A.; Coulson, J.C.; Farrar, J.; Good, J.E.G.; Harrington, R.; Hartley, S.; Jones, T.H.; Lindroth, R.L.; Press, M.C.; Symrnioudis, I.; Watt, A.D.; Whittaker, J.B.

    2002-01-01

    This review examines the direct effects of climate change on insect herbivores. Temperature is identified as the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting herbivorous insects. There is little evidence of any direct effects Of CO2 or UVB. Direct impacts of precipitation have been largely neglected i

  7. Effects of climate change on temperature and salinity in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    As part of a larger study to examine the effect of climate change (CC) on estuarine resources, we simulated the effect of rising sea level, alterations in river discharge, and increasing atmospheric temperatures on water properties in estuaries along the Pacific coast of the Unit...

  8. Climate Change in Nicaragua: a dynamical downscaling of precipitation and temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porras, Ignasi; Domingo-Dalmau, Anna; Sole, Josep Maria; Arasa, Raul; Picanyol, Miquel; Ángeles Gonzalez-Serrano, M.°; Masdeu, Marta

    2016-04-01

    Climate Change affects weather patterns and modifies meteorological extreme events like tropical cyclones, heavy rainfalls, dry events, extreme temperatures, etc. The aim of this study is to show the Climate Change projections over Nicaragua for the period 2010-2040 focused on precipitation and temperature. In order to obtain the climate change signal, the results obtained by modelling a past period (1980-2009) were compared with the ones obtained by modelling a future period (2010-2040). The modelling method was based on a dynamical downscaling, coupling global and regional models. The MPI-ESM-MR global climate model was selected due to the better performance over Nicaragua. Moreover, a detailed sensitivity analysis for different parameterizations and schemes of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF-ARW) model was made to minimize the model uncertainty. To evaluate and validate the methodology, a comparison between model outputs and satellite measurements data was realized. The results show an expected increment of the temperature and an increment of the number of days per year with temperatures higher than 35°C. Monthly precipitation patterns will change although annual total precipitation will be similar. In addition, number of dry days are expected to increase.

  9. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  10. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  11. Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

  12. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selbig, William R

    2015-07-15

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2°C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. PMID:25828407

  13. Recent climate change in Japan – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Domroes

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper temperature series of Japan were statistically analysed in order to answer the question whether recent climate change can be proved for Japan; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The observations in Japan started for some stations in the 1870s, 59 stations are available since 1901, 136 stations since 1959. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: Gaussian binominal low-pass filter (30 yr, trend analysis (linear regression model including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance and the non-parametric, non-linear trend test according to MANN (MANN's Q. According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Japan is clearly shown for temperature over the 100 yr (1901–2000: Annual mean temperatures increased at all stations from 0.35 (Hakodate to 2.95°C (Tokyo. The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and also increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations. As far as temperatures are concerned, a distinct increase could be shown over the period 1901–2000 with a strong trend of warming over the more recent period 1976–2000.

  14. A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B

  15. Importance of stream temperature to climate change impact on water quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Ducharne

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity of water quality to climate change was assessed in the Seine River (France with the biogeochemical model RIVERSTRAHLER, which describes the transformations and fluxes of C, N, P and Si between the main microbiological populations, the water column and the sediment, along the entire river network. Point and diffuse sources are prescribed, stream temperature undergoes a sinusoidal annual cycle constrained by observations, and runoff is calculated by a physically-based land surface model. The reference simulation, using meteorological forcing of 1986–1990 and point sources of 1991, compares very well with observations. The climate change simulated by a general circulation model under the SRES emission scenario A2 was used to simulate the related changes in runoff and stream temperature. To this end, a statistical analysis was undertaken of the relationships between the water and air temperatures in the Seine watershed over 1993–1999, using 88 points that correctly sampled the variability of the tributaries. Most of stream temperature variance was explained by the lagged moving average of air temperature, with parameters that depended on Strahler stream order. As an interesting simplification, stream temperature changes could be approximated by air temperature changes. This modelling framework was used to analyse of the relative influence of the water warming and discharge reduction induced by climate change on water quality in Paris and downstream. Discharge reduction increased phytoplankton growth and oxygen deficits. Water warming decreased dissolved oxygen, increased phytoplankton biomass during the growth period, and reduced it afterwards, when loss factors dominate. It was also shown that these impacts were enhanced when point source inputs of nutrient and organic matter increased.

  16. Recent climate change in Japan – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Schaefer

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper temperature series of Japan were statistically analysed in order to answer the question whether recent climate change can be proved for Japan; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The observations in Japan started for some stations in the 1870s, 59 stations are available since 1901, 136 stations since 1959. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: Gaussian binominal low-pass filter (30 yr, trend analysis (linear regression model including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance and the non-parametric, non-linear trend test according to MANN (MANN's Q. According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Japan is clearly shown for temperature over the 100 yr (1901–2000: Annual mean temperatures increased at all stations from 0.35 (Hakodate to 2.95°C (Tokyo. The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and also increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations.

  17. Modeling the impacts of climate change on stream water temperature across scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, C.; Caldwell, P. V.; Cohen, E.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.

    2015-12-01

    Water temperature is a critical variable to aquatic ecosystems because it controls metabolic rates and the distribution of aquatic organisms. Therefore, understanding the impacts of future climate on stream water temperature is relevant to sustainable management of water resources. Empirical models based on the statistical relation between air and steam water temperature offer a powerful tool for prediction at large scales. We will demonstrate how simple linear regression models based on short-term historical stream temperature (ts) observations and readily available interpolated air temperature (ta) estimates can be used for rapid assessment of historical and future changes in ts. This methodology was applied to 61 sites in the Southeast region of the US. We found that between 2011 and 2060, all sites were projected to experience increases in ts under the three evaluated climate projections (mean of +0.41 °C per decade). We also developed continental scale models to predict mean and maximum ts in ungauged locations across the US. The models linearly describe site relationships between monthly mean and maximum ta and ts as a function of climatic, hydrologic, and land cover variables. The empirical models were derived using data from 171 reference sites. These sites drain areas spanning four orders of magnitude and are located in 32 states and 16 hydrologic regions. Model performances yielded average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients between 0.78 and 0.85. These models were incorporated into the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) Ecosystem Services Model developed by the U.S. Forest Service to predict mean and maximum ts under different climatic projections and land cover changes at the USGS 8 digit hydrologic unit code watershed resolution across the US. The results identify regions in the country where significant increases in ts may occur, potentially causing stress to aquatic ecosystems as climate change progresses.

  18. Climate change. Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinman, Byron A; Mann, Michael E; Miller, Sonya K

    2015-02-27

    The recent slowdown in global warming has brought into question the reliability of climate model projections of future temperature change and has led to a vigorous debate over whether this slowdown is the result of naturally occurring, internal variability or forcing external to Earth's climate system. To address these issues, we applied a semi-empirical approach that combines climate observations and model simulations to estimate Atlantic- and Pacific-based internal multidecadal variability (termed "AMO" and "PMO," respectively). Using this method, the AMO and PMO are found to explain a large proportion of internal variability in Northern Hemisphere mean temperatures. Competition between a modest positive peak in the AMO and a substantially negative-trending PMO are seen to produce a slowdown or "false pause" in warming of the past decade. PMID:25722410

  19. Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Ed; Sutton, Rowan

    2016-04-01

    Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth's mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. We discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections and highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

  20. Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. Collins

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide. We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs and global temperature change potentials (GTPs. For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs. The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20–30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

  1. A simplified physically-based model to calculate surface water temperature of lakes from air temperature in climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Toffolon, M.

    2012-12-01

    Modifications of water temperature are crucial for the ecology of lakes, but long-term analyses are not usually able to provide reliable estimations. This is particularly true for climate change studies based on Global Circulation Models, whose mesh size is normally too coarse for explicitly including even some of the biggest lakes on Earth. On the other hand, modeled predictions of air temperature changes are more reliable, and long-term, high-resolution air temperature observational datasets are more available than water temperature measurements. For these reasons, air temperature series are often used to obtain some information about the surface temperature of water bodies. In order to do that, it is common to exploit regression models, but they are questionable especially when it is necessary to extrapolate current trends beyond maximum (or minimum) measured temperatures. Moreover, water temperature is influenced by a variety of processes of heat exchange across the lake surface and by the thermal inertia of the water mass, which also causes an annual hysteresis cycle between air and water temperatures that is hard to consider in regressions. In this work we propose a simplified, physically-based model for the estimation of the epilimnetic temperature in lakes. Starting from the zero-dimensional heat budget, we derive a simplified first-order differential equation for water temperature, primarily forced by a seasonally varying external term (mainly related to solar radiation) and an exchange term explicitly depending on the difference between air and water temperatures. Assuming annual sinusoidal cycles of the main heat flux components at the atmosphere-lake interface, eight parameters (some of them can be disregarded, though) are identified, which can be calibrated if two temporal series of air and water temperature are available. We note that such a calibration is supported by the physical interpretation of the parameters, which provide good initial

  2. Complex interactions between climate change and toxicants: evidence that temperature variability increases sensitivity to cadmium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimberly, David A; Salice, Christopher J

    2014-07-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that global climate change will have significant impacts on environmental conditions including potential effects on sensitivity of organisms to environmental contaminants. The objective of this study was to test the climate-induced toxicant sensitivity (CITS) hypothesis in which acclimation to altered climate parameters increases toxicant sensitivity. Adult Physa pomilia snails were acclimated to a near optimal 22 °C or a high-normal 28 °C for 28 days. After 28 days, snails from each temperature group were challenged with either low (150 μg/L) or high (300 μg/L) cadmium at each temperature (28 or 22 °C). In contrast to the CITS hypothesis, we found that acclimation temperature did not have a strong influence on cadmium sensitivity except at the high cadmium test concentration where snails acclimated to 28 °C were more cadmium tolerant. However, snails that experienced a switch in temperature for the cadmium challenge, regardless of the switch direction, were the most sensitive to cadmium. Within the snails that were switched between temperatures, snails acclimated at 28 °C and then exposed to high cadmium at 22 °C exhibited significantly greater mortality than those snails acclimated to 22 °C and then exposed to cadmium at 28 °C. Our results point to the importance of temperature variability in increasing toxicant sensitivity but also suggest a potentially complex cost of temperature acclimation. Broadly, the type of temporal stressor exposures we simulated may reduce overall plasticity in responses to stress ultimately rendering populations more vulnerable to adverse effects.

  3. Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: a model inter-comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D; Bonfils, C; Duffy, P

    2006-11-09

    Several impacts of climate change may depend more on changes in mean daily minimum (T{sub min}) or maximum (T{sub max}) temperatures than daily averages. To evaluate uncertainties in these variables, we compared projections of T{sub min} and T{sub max} changes by 2046-2065 for 12 climate models under an A2 emission scenario. Average modeled changes in T{sub max} were slightly lower in most locations than T{sub min}, consistent with historical trends exhibiting a reduction in diurnal temperature ranges. However, while average changes in T{sub min} and T{sub max} were similar, the inter-model variability of T{sub min} and T{sub max} projections exhibited substantial differences. For example, inter-model standard deviations of June-August T{sub max} changes were more than 50% greater than for T{sub min} throughout much of North America, Europe, and Asia. Model differences in cloud changes, which exert relatively greater influence on T{sub max} during summer and T{sub min} during winter, were identified as the main source of uncertainty disparities. These results highlight the importance of considering separately projections for T{sub max} and T{sub min} when assessing climate change impacts, even in cases where average projected changes are similar. In addition, impacts that are most sensitive to summertime T{sub min} or wintertime T{sub max} may be more predictable than suggested by analyses using only projections of daily average temperatures.

  4. Managing the Health Effects of Temperature in Response to Climate Change: Challenges Ahead

    OpenAIRE

    Huang, Cunrui; Barnett, Adrian G; Xu, Zhiwei; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Lyle R. Turner; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Background: Although many studies have shown that high temperatures are associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, there has been little research on managing the process of planned adaptation to alleviate the health effects of heat events and climate change. In particular, economic evaluation of public health adaptation strategies has been largely absent from both the scientific literature and public policy discussion. Objectives: We examined how public health organizations...

  5. Understanding Temperature and Moisture Interactions in the Economics of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Agriculture

    OpenAIRE

    Ortiz-­Bobea, Ariel

    2013-01-01

    Growing econometric and statistical evidence points to high temperature as the main driver of large negative effects of climate change on US agriculture. This literature also suggests a limited role for precipitation in overall impacts. This paper shows this finding stems from the widespread use of calendar precipitation variables, which poorly represent water availability for rainfed crops. I rely on a state-of-the art dataset with very high spatial (14km) and temporal (1h) resolution to dev...

  6. Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

    2016-07-01

    The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

  7. Response of Soil Temperature to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, C. L.; Torn, M. S.; Koven, C. D.

    2014-12-01

    Predictions of soil temperature changes are as critical to policy development and climate change adaptation as predictions of air temperature, but have received comparatively little attention. Soil temperature determines seed germination and growth of wild and agricultural plants, and impacts climate through both geophysical and carbon-cycle feedbacks. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 5th Assessment Report does not report soil temperature predictions, but focuses instead on surface air temperatures, despite the fact that mean annual soil temperatures and mean surface air temperatures are often different from each other. Here we aim to fill this important knowledge gap by reporting soil temperature and moisture predictions for 15 earth system models (ESMs) that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 Project (CMIP5). Under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios, soil warming is predicted to almost keep pace with soil air warming, with about 10% less warming in soil than air, globally. The slower warming of soil compared to air is likely related to predictions of soil drying, with drier soils having reduced soil heat capacity and thermal conductivity. Mollisol soils, which are typically regarded as the most productive soil order for cultivating cereal crops, are anticipated to see warming in North America of 3.5 to 5.5 °C at the end of the 21st century (2080-2100) compared to 1986-2005. One impact of soil warming is likely to be an acceleration of germination timing, with the 3°C temperature threshold for wheat germination anticipated to advance by several weeks in Mollisol regions. Furthermore, soil warming at 1 m depth is predicted to be almost equivalent to warming at 1 cm depth in frost-free regions, indicating vulnerability of deep soil carbon pools to destabilization. To assess model performance we compare the models' predictions with observations of damping depth, and offsets between mean annual soil and air temperature

  8. Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K. (Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland)); Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L. (Swedish Meteorological Institute (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

  9. Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

  10. Response of microalgae to elevated CO2 and temperature: impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Xu, Xiaoguang; Fujibayashi, Megumu; Niu, Qigui; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Nishimura, Osamu

    2016-10-01

    To estimate the combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on microalgae, three typical and worldwide freshwater species, the green alga Scenedesmus acuminatus, the diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana, and the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa, as well as mixes of these three species were continuously cultured in controlled environment chambers with CO2 at 390 and 1000 ppm and temperatures of 20, 25, and 30 °C. CO2 and temperature significantly affected the production of microalgae. The cell productivity increased under elevated CO2 and temperature. Although the green alga dominated in the mixed culture within all CO2 and temperature conditions, rising temperature and CO2 intensified the competition of the cyanobacterium with other microalgae. CO2 affected the extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) characteristics of the green alga and the cyanobacterium. Elevated CO2 induced the generation of humic substances in the EPS fractions of the green alga, the cyanobacterium, and the mixed culture. The extracellular carbohydrates of the diatom and the extracellular proteins of the cyanobacterium increased with elevated CO2 and temperature, while the extracellular carbohydrates and proteins of the green alga and the mixes increased under elevated CO2 and temperature. There were synergistic effects of CO2 and temperature on the productivity and the EPS of microalgae. Climate change related CO2 and temperature increases will promote autochthonous organic carbon production in aquatic ecosystems and facilitate the proliferation of cyanobacteria, which potentially changes the carbon cycling and undermines the functioning of ecosystems.

  11. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  12. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  13. Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, W.J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

  14. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10–90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the

  15. Projection of future temperature-related mortality due to climate and demographic changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae Young; Kim, Ho

    2016-09-01

    Understanding the effects of global climate change from both environmental and human health perspectives has gained great importance. Particularly, studies on the direct effect of temperature increase on future mortality have been conducted. However, few of those studies considered population changes, and although the world population is rapidly aging, no previous study considered the effect of society aging. Here we present a projection of future temperature-related mortality due to both climate and demographic changes in seven major cities of South Korea, a fast aging country, until 2100; we used the HadGEM3-RA model under four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and the United Nations world population prospects under three fertility scenarios (high, medium, and low). The results showed markedly increased mortality in the elderly group, significantly increasing the overall future mortality. In 2090s, South Korea could experience a four- to six-time increase in temperature-related mortality compared to that during 1992-2010 under four different RCP scenarios and three different fertility variants, while the mortality is estimated to increase only by 0.5 to 1.5 times assuming no population aging. Therefore, not considering population aging may significantly underestimate temperature risks. PMID:27316627

  16. Integrated approach of regulate global temperature rises and climate changes for sustainable planet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study emphasis the requirement of integrated approach for regulate the global temperature rises to protect the planet form climate changes and other system changes. It is clear that effect of global temperature increases, have already affected many physical and biological and human systems, This unbalances of global systems is more rapid after 1950' s increases of using environmental polluting energy sources with releasing the pollutants to global systems together with extra solar energy accumulation. How ever as a solution it is require to reduce pollutants and balance the energy level to optimum within the caring capacity. To protect the planet as a sustainable system with controlling temperature rises and other unbalances it is important to keep and protect the interrelationship of each and every system with protecting mechanisms. Therefore it is require integrated approach to establish protective mechanisms for each and every sectors of badly effecting with considering regional, national. international and global level.

  17. Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. Collins

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia using radiative forcing from the task force on hemispheric transport of air pollution source-receptor global chemical transport model simulations. These simulations model the transport of 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon and 4 ozone precursors (methane, nitric oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide. From the equilibrium radiative forcing results we calculate global climate metrics, global warming potentials (GWPs and global temperature change potentials (GTPs and show how these depend on emission region, and can vary as functions of time. For the aerosol species, the GWP(100 values are −37±12, −46±20, and 350±200 for SO2, POM and BC respectively for the direct effects only. The corresponding GTP(100 values are −5.2±2.4, −6.5±3.5, and 50±33.

    This analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands. This shows that the latitudinal pattern of the temperature response to emissions of the NTCFs does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. For instance temperatures in the Arctic latitudes are particularly sensitive to NTCF emissions in the northern mid-latitudes. At the 100-yr time horizon the ARTPs show NOx emissions can have a warming effect in the northern mid and high latitudes, but cooling in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions of most NTCFs is approximately twice as large as would be implied by the global average.

  18. Temperature and Violent Crime in Dallas, Texas: Relationships and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet L. Gamble

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To address these questions, we examined the relationship between daily ambient temperatures and daily incidents of violent crime in Dallas, Texas from 1993–1999.Methods: We analyzed the relationships between daily fluctuations in ambient temperature, other meteorological and temporal variables, and rates of daily violent crime using time series piece-wise regression and plots of daily data. Violent crimes, including aggravated assault, homicide, and sexualassault, were analyzed.Results: We found that daily mean ambient temperature is related in a curvilinear fashion to daily rates of violent crime with a positive and increasing relationship between temperature and aggravated crime that moderates beyond temperatures of 80 F and then turns negative beyond 90 F.Conclusion: While some have characterized the relationship between temperature and violent crime as a continually increasing linear function, leaving open the possibility that aggravated crime will increase in a warmer climate, we conclude that the relationship in Dallas is not linear, but moderatesand turns negative at high ambient temperatures. We posit that higher temperatures may encourage people to seek shelter in cooler indoor spaces, and that street crime and other crimes of opportunity are subsequently decreased. This finding suggests that the higher ambient temperatures expected with climate change may result in marginal shifts in violent crime in the short term, but are not likely to be

  19. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  20. Projected changes to high temperature events for Canada based on a regional climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Diro, Gulilat Tefera; Khaliq, M. Naveed; Beltrami, Hugo; Caya, Daniel

    2016-05-01

    Extreme hot spells can have significant impacts on human society and ecosystems, and therefore it is important to assess how these extreme events will evolve in a changing climate. In this study, the impact of climate change on hot days, hot spells, and heat waves, over 10 climatic regions covering Canada, based on 11 regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the June to August summer period is presented. These simulations were produced with six RCMs driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM), for the A2 emission scenario, for the current 1970-1999 and future 2040-2069 periods. Two types of hot days, namely HD-1 and HD-2, defined respectively as days with only daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and both Tmax and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) exceeding their respective thresholds (i.e., period-of-record 90th percentile of Tmax and Tmin values), are considered in the study. Analogous to these hot days, two types of hot spells, namely HS-1 and HS-2, are identified as spells of consecutive HD-1 and HD-2 type hot days. In the study, heat waves are defined as periods of three or more consecutive days, with Tmax above 32 °C threshold. Results suggest future increases in the number of both types of hot days and hot spell events for the 10 climatic regions considered. However, the projected changes show high spatial variability and are highly dependent on the RCM and driving AOGCM combination. Extreme hot spell events such as HS-2 type hot spells of longer duration are expected to experience relatively larger increases compared to hot spells of moderate duration, implying considerable heat related environmental and health risks. Regionally, the Great Lakes, West Coast, Northern Plains, and Maritimes regions are found to be more affected due to increases in the frequency and severity of hot spells and/or heat wave characteristics, requiring more in depth studies for these regions

  1. The relationships between temperature changes and reproductive investment in a Mediterranean goby: Insights for the assessment of climate change effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucchetta, M.; Cipolato, G.; Pranovi, F.; Antonetti, P.; Torricelli, P.; Franzoi, P.; Malavasi, S.

    2012-04-01

    The relationships between changes in water temperature and the timing and level of reproductive investment were investigated in an estuarine fish, inhabiting the Venice lagoon: the grass goby Zosterisessor ophiocephalus. A time series of the mean monthly values of gonado-somatic index was coupled with thermal profiles of lagoon water temperatures over 14 years, from 1997 to 2010. Results showed that the reproductive investment was positively affected by water temperature changes, both in terms of monthly thermal anomalies and cumulative degree days. A predictive model was also developed to assess the temporal shift of reproductive peaks as a response to inter-annual thermal fluctuations. This model allowed the detection of deviations from the median level, indicating that during warmer years, the reproductive peak tended to occur earlier than during colder years. The model is therefore proposed as a tool to predict anticipated consequences of climate change on fish phenology in transitional waters, regarding recurrent biological phenomena, such as reproduction and recruitment.

  2. Changing patterns of the temperature-mortality association by time and location in the US, and implications for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordio, Francesco; Zanobetti, Antonella; Colicino, Elena; Kloog, Itai; Schwartz, Joel

    2015-08-01

    The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature-mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1-5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.

  3. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  4. Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welbergen, Justin A; Klose, Stefan M; Markus, Nicola; Eby, Peggy

    2008-02-22

    Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.

  5. Paradigm or Paradox: Can we Attribute Species Changes to Global Climate Change in Light of Decreasing Water Temperatures in Central California?

    OpenAIRE

    Breaker, Laurence, C.; Cailliet, Gregor; Launer, Andrea; Wadsworth, Tom

    2012-01-01

    The main goal of this study was to gather information about historical changes in water temperature and species composition, in order to identify variables that will enable us to predict changes in water temperatures and species abundances in California caused by global climate change. Our primary objectives were to (1) review the existing published and unpublished data sets to refine our understanding of trends in sea surface temperature in central California; (2) review fish and climate dat...

  6. Effects of environmental temperature change on mercury absorption in aquatic organisms with respect to climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pack, Eun Chul; Lee, Seung Ha; Kim, Chun Huem; Lim, Chae Hee; Sung, Dea Gwan; Kim, Mee Hye; Park, Ki Hwan; Lim, Kyung Min; Choi, Dal Woong; Kim, Suhng Wook

    2014-01-01

    Because of global warming, the quantity of naturally generated mercury (Hg) will increase, subsequently methylation of Hg existing in seawater may be enhanced, and the content of metal in marine products rise which consequently results in harm to human health. Studies of the effects of temperatures on Hg absorption have not been adequate. In this study, in order to observe the effects of temperature changes on Hg absorption, inorganic Hg or methylmercury (MeHg) was added to water tanks containing loaches. Loach survival rates decreased with rising temperatures, duration, and exposure concentrations in individuals exposed to inorganic Hg and MeHg. The MeHg-treated group died sooner than the inorganic Hg-exposed group. The total Hg and MeHg content significantly increased with temperature and time in both metal-exposed groups. The MeHg-treated group had higher metal absorption rates than inorganic Hg-treated loaches. The correlation coefficients for temperature elevation and absorption were significant in both groups. The results of this study may be used as basic data for assessing in vivo hazards from environmental changes such as climate warming.

  7. Contributions of developed and developing countries to global climate forcing and surface temperature change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Understanding the relative contributions of individual countries to global climate change for different time periods is essential for mitigation strategies that seek to hold nations accountable for their historical emissions. Previous assessments of this kind have compared countries by their greenhouse gas emissions, but have yet to consider the full spectrum of the short-lived gases and aerosols. In this study, we use the radiative forcing of anthropogenic emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases, ozone precursors, aerosols, and from albedo changes from land cover change together with a simple climate model to evaluate country contributions to climate change. We assess the historical contribution of each country to global surface temperature change from anthropogenic forcing ( Δ Ts), future Δ Ts through year 2100 given two different emissions scenarios, and the Δ Ts that each country has committed to from past activities between 1850 and 2010 (committed Δ Ts). By including forcings in addition to the long-lived greenhouse gases the contribution of developed countries, particularly the United States, to Δ Ts from 1850 to 2010 (58%) is increased compared to an assessment of CO2-equivalent emissions for the same time period (52%). Contributions to committed Δ Ts evaluated at year 2100, dominated by long-lived greenhouse gas forcing, are more evenly split between developed and developing countries (55% and 45%, respectively). The portion of anthropogenic Δ Ts attributable to developing countries is increasing, led by emissions from China and India, and we estimate that this will surpass the contribution from developed countries around year 2030. (paper)

  8. Seasonal variations in aridity and temperature characterize changing climate during the last deglaciation in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikes, Elisabeth L.; Medeiros, Patricia M.; Augustinus, Paul; Wilmshurst, Janet M.; Freeman, Katherine R.

    2013-08-01

    New multiproxy records of aridity from northern New Zealand assess the seasonality and overall pattern of wetness through the Last Glacial Coldest Period (LGCP) to the early Holocene in the subtropical Southwest Pacific. Biomass burning indicators based on terrestrial biomarkers and δ13C of individual plant leaf wax carbon compounds (n-alkanoic acids) from a maar lake were used to track aridity. In combination with published sea surface temperatures and new pollen-based temperature estimates from the same core, seasonal climatological changes in the Auckland area were determined from 27 to 9 cal. ka BP. These proxies document a shift from cold and dry conditions in the Last Glacial Maximum to seasonally wetter conditions through the deglaciation. Spring became warmer first and possibly wetter while summers remained drier and initially cooler. The progression from cold-dry to warm-wet was punctuated by the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR) which stands out as having wetter conditions in both spring and summer and mild cooling largely concentrated in spring. The seasonal climate trends observed here can be plausibly explained by a rapid change from a subpolar climate to one with subtropical control in this region of the southwest Pacific across the Last Glacial to Interglacial transition. A southerly shift and decreasing intensity of the westerly wind belt after the LGCP is considered to have driven the early deglacial warming and pulse of wetness whereas a northward shift without a commensurate increase in intensity of the westerlies may explain conditions in the ACR.

  9. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  10. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  11. Climate change scenarios of extreme temperatures and atmospheric humidity for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejeda-Martinez, A. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)]. E-mail: atejeda@uv.mx; Conde-Alvarez, C. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valencia-Treviso, L.E. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)

    2008-10-15

    The following study explores climatic change scenarios of extreme temperature and atmospheric humidity for the 2020 and 2050 decades. They were created for Mexico through the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HadCM2 general circulation models. Base scenario conditions were associated with the normal climatological conditions for the period 1961-1990, with a database of 50 surface observatories. It was necessary to empirically estimate the missing data in approximately half of the pressure measurements. For the period 1961-1990, statistical models of the monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and atmospheric humidity (relative and specific) were obtained from the observed data of temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Based on the simulations of the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 models, a future scenario of monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity in climatic change conditions was created. The results shown are for the representative months of winter (January) and summer (July). [Spanish] En este articulo se presentan escenarios de cambio climatico referidos a temperaturas extremas y humedad atmosferica para las decadas de 2020 y 2050. Fueron generados para Mexico a partir de los modelos de circulacion general GFDLR30, ECHAM4 y HADCM2. El escenario base corresponde a las normales climatologicas del periodo 1961-1990 para 50 observatorios de superficie. Para la mitad de ellos fue necesario estimar empiricamente la presion atmosferica a partir de la altitud y para la totalidad se obtuvieron modelos estadisticos de los promedios mensuales de temperaturas maxima y minima asi como de humedad atmosferica (relativa y especifica). Esos modelos estadisticos, combinados con las salidas de los modelos de circulacion general mencionados, produjeron escenarios futuros de medias mensuales de temperaturas extremas y de humedad bajo condiciones de cambio climatico. Se mostraran los resultados para un mes representativo del invierno (enero) y otro del verano

  12. Climate change for the last 1,000 years inferred from borehole temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitaoka, K.; Arimoto, H.; Hamamoto, H.; Taniguchi, M.; Takeuchi, T.

    2013-12-01

    Subsurface temperatures are an archive of temperature changes occurred at the ground surface in the recent past (Lachenbruch and Marshall, 1986; Pollack, 1993). In order to investigate the local surface temperature histories in Osaka Plane, Japan, we observed subsurface temperatures in existing boreholes, using a thermometer logger. Many temperature-depth profiles within 200 m depth from the ground surface have been obtained, but they show considerable variability. The geological formations in the area consist of horizontally stratified sedimentary layers of about 1,000 m in thickness overlaid on bedrock of granite. There exists a vertical disordered structure in the formations, which may be relating to an active fault (Uemachi fault) in the bedrock (Takemura, et al, 2013). It is considered that groundwater in the horizontal layers cannot move vertically, but can move vertically along the vertical disordered zone. Various temperature profiles might be related to occurrence of vertical groundwater flow in the zone. Analytical models of subsurface temperature which include heat conduction and convection due to vertical groundwater flow in the zone have been constructed under the boundary conditions of prescribing time dependent surface temperature and uniform geothermal flux from greater depths. To solve as one-dimensional problem, heat transfer between the vertical zone and the surrounding medium of no groundwater flow is assumed. Prescribing surface temperatures were given as exponential and periodic functions of the time. Climate change can be considered to comprise both natural and artificial changes. Artificial change, which occurs by the increasing combustion of fossil fuels, is considered roughly to be an exponential increase of the ground surface temperature during the last 150 years. Natural change, which can correlate to solar activity (Lassen and Friis-Christensen, 1995), is assumed roughly to be periodic with the period of about 1200 y at the minimum time

  13. Response of Arctic Temperature to Changes in Emissions of Short-Lived Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice the global rate, largely due to ice albedo and temperature feedbacks. While deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation appear promptly and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This study is the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCF emissions, taking into account BC, sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile hydrocarbons (VOC), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone, their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. Using several chemical transport models we perform detailed radiative forcing calculations from emissions of these species. Geographically we separate emissions into seven source regions that correspond with the national groupings of the Arctic Council, the leading body organizing international policy in the region (the United States, Canada, the Nordic countries, the rest of Europe, Russia, East and South Asia, and the rest of the world). We look at six main sectors known to account for [nearly all] of these emissions: households (domestic), energy/industry/waste, transport, agricultural fires, grass/forest fires, and gas flaring. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible SLCFs mitigation scenario, phased in from 2015 through 2030, can cut warming by 0.2 K in 2050.

  14. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  15. Current Climate Variability & Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  16. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  17. Evaluation of Stream Temperature Response in the Connecticut River to Climate Change, Riparian Logging and Reservoir-induced Hydrologic Alteration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, N.; Yearsley, J. R.; Baptiste, M.; Nijssen, B.

    2015-12-01

    Water temperature and streamflow play a critical role in the function of aquatic ecosystems. In the Connecticut River, the hydrologic and thermal regimes have been significantly altered by dams and impoundments as well as by changes in land use that include timber harvest and the clearing of land for agriculture. The impact of these alterations is expected to be more pronounced under projected climate change. We apply a spatially distributed hydrology-stream temperature modeling system, DHSVM-RBM, to evaluate the hydrologic and stream temperature changes associated with climate change, disturbance of riparian vegetation, and removal of reservoirs and impoundments. We configured DHSVM-RBM for 14 major basins in the Connecticut River Basin at a spatial resolution of 150 m and a sub-daily timescale. For existing conditions, characterized by 65 major reservoirs in the main stem of the Connecticut River, we simulated streamflows and temperatures and compared results with flow gage observations and stream temperature measurements. We then explored the relative impact of climate change, disturbance of riparian vegetation, and removal of dams/reservoirs on streamflow and water temperature variations in the Connecticut River in a spatially explicit manner at sub-daily, seasonal and inter-annual time scales. The findings will provide stakeholders with guidance regarding strategies for adapting to future climate change.

  18. Climate change effects on macrofaunal litter decomposition: the interplay of temperature, body masses and stoichiometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ott, David; Rall, Björn C; Brose, Ulrich

    2012-11-01

    Macrofauna invertebrates of forest floors provide important functions in the decomposition process of soil organic matter, which is affected by the nutrient stoichiometry of the leaf litter. Climate change effects on forest ecosystems include warming and decreasing litter quality (e.g. higher C : nutrient ratios) induced by higher atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. While litter-bag experiments unravelled separate effects, a mechanistic understanding of how interactions between temperature and litter stoichiometry are driving decomposition rates is lacking. In a laboratory experiment, we filled this void by quantifying decomposer consumption rates analogous to predator-prey functional responses that include the mechanistic parameters handling time and attack rate. Systematically, we varied the body masses of isopods, the environmental temperature and the resource between poor (hornbeam) and good quality (ash). We found that attack rates increased and handling times decreased (i) with body masses and (ii) temperature. Interestingly, these relationships interacted with litter quality: small isopods possibly avoided the poorer resource, whereas large isopods exhibited increased, compensatory feeding of the poorer resource, which may be explained by their higher metabolic demands. The combination of metabolic theory and ecological stoichiometry provided critically important mechanistic insights into how warming and varying litter quality may modify macrofaunal decomposition rates. PMID:23007091

  19. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  20. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  1. The Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO) in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic: Temperature and Biotic change

    OpenAIRE

    M. Polling; Houben, A. J. P.; Firth, J; Coxall, H.; J. S. Eldrett; Schouten, S.; Reichart, G.-J.; Brinkhuis, H.

    2011-01-01

    Increasingly high resolution isotope- and novel organic geochemical proxy records have revealed that the long-term cooling trend of the middle Eocene was interrupted by a warming phase designated the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO). It is suggested to represent an increase in sea surface temperatures of about 4°C, lasting approximately 400 kyr. The temperature evolution of the MECO is notably well-documented in the Southern Ocean. However, records of temperature- and biotic change durin...

  2. Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Brewer, Scott J.; Jones, Edward C.; Rondorf, Dennis W.

    2011-01-01

    A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020.

  3. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... during the last 10 000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to severely influence both...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  4. Global Sea Surface Temperature and Ecosystem Change Across the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veenstra, T. J. T.; Bakker, V. B.; Sangiorgi, F.; Peterse, F.; Schouten, S.; Sluijs, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) (ca. 17 to 14 Ma) is generally considered as the warmest episode of the Neogene based on deep marine oxygen isotope records and terrestrial plant fossils. To date, however, reasonable resolution high-quality sea surface temperature (SST) proxy records spanning its onset are scarce at best. For the remainder of the MMCO, reliable SST records are absent from the tropics and very scarce in temperate and polar regions. This leaves the question if the MMCO was truly associated with global warming and if this warming was associated with biotic change. We use organic biomarker paleothermometry (Uk'37 and TEX86) to reconstruct SST across the MMCO at four locations along a pole-to-pole transect in the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. Additionally, we use marine palynology (mostly dinoflagellate cysts) to assess ecosystem change at these locations. This study includes the first tropical biomarker-based SST records of the MMCO. Together with new and existing SST records from higher latitudes and the corresponding palynological records, they provide new insights in the temporal and spatial development of the MMCO. Our results indicate that Mid-Miocene warming was most prominent in the Norwegian Sea, showed a more complex, perhaps upwelling-related pattern in a tropical location, and was small in the Southern Hemisphere.

  5. The effect of temperature and humidity changes on insects development and their impact on forest ecosystems in the context of expected climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Jaworski, Tomasz; Hilszczański, Jacek

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing climate change is mainly evident as increased in average temperature. It is expected to have a significant impact on world’s biomes, with forest ecosystems especially vulnerable to these changes. The effect of climate change on forests is both indirect, through its impact on various tree species of different ecological requirements, and direct, through its impact on all living components of the forest ecosystem. Among the latter, insects are the group of the greatest importance,...

  6. Modeling the impacts of climate change on stream water temperature across the Conterminous U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, C.; Caldwell, P.; Sun, G.; McNulty, D.; Zhang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Water temperature is a critical variable to aquatic ecosystems because it controls metabolic rates and distribution of aquatic organisms. In this work, we present an empirical model to investigate the effects of climate change on stream water temperature and apply the model across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The model linearly describes site relationships between monthly-mean air (ta) temperature and stream water temperature (ts) as a function of climatic, hydrologic, and land cover characteristics. We found that more complex models to fit the relation between ta and ts at individual sites did not improve fitting accuracy. The empirical model was derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) data base, version II. These sites drain basins with areas spanning four orders of magnitude and are located in 32 states and 16 hydrologic regions. The model predicts slope and intercept of the linear relation between ta and ts. The slopes of the linear relations are computed as a function of drainage area, base flow index, elevation, forest cover, and mean annual precipitation. While it was not possible to derive a single generalized model for the intercept, we found that by dividing the sites into three elevation categories, we obtained a robust model in which most of the variance is explained by mean annual precipitation (for sites > 1200 m elevation), drainage area and elevation (for sites between 200-1200 m elevation), and drainage area and mean annual temperature (for sites 0.8. The model is stronger at predicting the slope (r2=0.55) than the intercept (r2=0.26-0.47). The mean normalized gross error for slope was below 10% for 60% of the sites and below 25% for 77% of the sites. Absolute errors for the intercept were below 1°C in ts for 63% of the sites and less than 2°C in ts for 90% of the sites. Validation of the calculated slope and intercept of the ts vs. ta relation at 89 non

  7. Rising temperatures, rising tensions : climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, O.; Crawford, A.

    2009-07-01

    Scientific evidence suggests that climate change will have significant impacts to food security, disease prevalence, population distribution, and water availability in the Middle East. This paper discussed the likelihood of increased conflict as a result of climatic change in Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and the occupied Palestinian territory. A range of consultations and interviews with experts were analyzed in order to determine security threats in the region over the next 40 years. The study showed that the legacy of conflict in the region will hamper its ability to adapt to climate change. Climate change is likely to increase competition for water resources, intensify food shortages, and hinder economic growth. Climate change may also lead to forced migration and tensions with existing refugee populations and increase the militarization of natural resources. Strategies to pursue sustainable development in the Levant region included fostering a culture of conservation, addressing core tensions related to agriculture and water development, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regional cooperation is needed to develop effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction plans. 68 refs., 3 tabs., 22 figs.

  8. Rising temperatures, rising tensions : climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scientific evidence suggests that climate change will have significant impacts to food security, disease prevalence, population distribution, and water availability in the Middle East. This paper discussed the likelihood of increased conflict as a result of climatic change in Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and the occupied Palestinian territory. A range of consultations and interviews with experts were analyzed in order to determine security threats in the region over the next 40 years. The study showed that the legacy of conflict in the region will hamper its ability to adapt to climate change. Climate change is likely to increase competition for water resources, intensify food shortages, and hinder economic growth. Climate change may also lead to forced migration and tensions with existing refugee populations and increase the militarization of natural resources. Strategies to pursue sustainable development in the Levant region included fostering a culture of conservation, addressing core tensions related to agriculture and water development, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regional cooperation is needed to develop effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction plans. 68 refs., 3 tabs., 22 figs.

  9. Temperature and Violent Crime in Dallas, Texas: Relationships and Implications of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Gamble, Janet L.; Hess, Jeremy J.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To ad...

  10. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  11. Low Frequency Modulation of Extreme Temperature Regimes in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Black, Robert X.

    2014-11-24

    The project examines long-term changes in extreme temperature episodes (ETE) associated with planetary climate modes (PCMs) in both the real atmospheric and climate model simulations. The focus is on cold air outbreaks (CAOs) and warm waves (WWs) occurring over the continental US during the past 60 winters. No significant long-term trends in either WWs or CAOs are observed over the US. The annual frequency of CAOs is affected by the (i) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the Southeast US and (ii) Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern over the Northwest US. WW frequency is influenced by the (i) NAO over the eastern US and (ii) combined influence of PNA, Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and ENSO over the southern US. The collective influence of PCMs accounts for as much as 50% of the regional variability in ETE frequency. During CAO (WW) events occurring over the southeast US, there are low (high) pressure anomalies at higher atmospheric levels over the southeast US with oppositely-signed pressure anomalies in the lower atmosphere over the central US. These patterns lead to anomalous northerly (for CAOs) or southerly (for WWs) flow into the southeast leading to cold or warm surface air temperature anomalies, respectively. One distinction is that CAOs involve substantial air mass transport while WW formation is more local in nature. The primary differences among event categories are in the origin and nature of the pressure anomaly features linked to ETE onset. In some cases, PCMs help to provide a favorable environment for event onset. Heat budget analyses indicate that latitudinal transport in the lower atmosphere is the main contributor to regional cooling during CAO onset. This is partly offset by adiabatic warming associated with subsiding air. Additional diagnoses reveal that this latitudinal transport is partly due to the remote physical influence of a shallow cold pool of air trapped along the east side of the Rocky Mountains. ETE and PCM behavior is also

  12. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  13. Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

  14. Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Assessing the performance of climate models in surface air temperature (SAT) simulation and projection have received increasing attention during the recent decades. This paper assesses the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating intra-annual, annual and decadal temperature over Northern Eurasia from 1901 to 2005. We evaluate the skill of different multi-model ensemble techniques and use the best technique to project the future SAT changes under different emission scenarios. The results show that most of the general circulation models (GCMs) overestimate the annual mean SAT in Northern Eurasia and the difference between the observation and the simulations primarily comes from the winter season. Most of the GCMs can approximately capture the decadal SAT trend; however, the accuracy of annual SAT simulation is relatively low. The correlation coefficient R between each GCM simulation and the annual observation is in the range of 0.20 to 0.56. The Taylor diagram shows that the ensemble results generated by the simple model averaging (SMA), reliability ensemble averaging (REA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) methods are superior to any single GCM output; and the decadal SAT change generated by SMA, REA and BMA are almost identical during 1901–2005. Heuristically, the uncertainty of BMA simulation is the smallest among the three multi-model ensemble simulations. The future SAT projection generated by the BMA shows that the SAT in Northern Eurasia will increase in the 21st century by around 1.03 °C/100 yr, 3.11 °C/100 yr and 7.14 °C/100 yr under the RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively; and the warming accelerates with the increasing latitude. In addition, the spring season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios, while the winter season contributes most to the decadal warming occurring under the RCP 8.5 scenario. Generally, the uncertainty of the SAT

  15. Analysis and prediction of global climate temperature change based on multiforced observational statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schönwiese, C D

    1994-01-01

    The response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gases was simulated by a number of climate model projections. There is an urgent need to verify or falsify these projections against observational climate data. Therefore, in this contribution, surface air temperature data are considered covering on a global average the period 1861-1990 and on a northern hemisphere average 1670-1990 (including proxy data). Based on a multiple correlation and coherence analysis a regression model is evaluated which is simultaneously forced by the observed or reconstructed atmospheric CO(2) or equivalent CO(2) concentration increase, volcanic activity, solar variations, and the ENSO (El Niño/southern oscillation) mechanism including phase shifts between cause and effect. This model reveals a greenhouse-gas-induced mean global temperature rise of 0.6-0.8 K since preindustrial time (c. 1800-1990). Following the IPCC business-as-usual scenario (trend extrapolation) this would lead to a hypothetical 3.8 K temperature rise in 2100 (best estimate, uncertainty + 0.7/-0.4 K compared to the 1985 value. PMID:15091761

  16. Analysis and prediction of global climate temperature change based on multiforced observational statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schönwiese, C D

    1994-01-01

    The response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gases was simulated by a number of climate model projections. There is an urgent need to verify or falsify these projections against observational climate data. Therefore, in this contribution, surface air temperature data are considered covering on a global average the period 1861-1990 and on a northern hemisphere average 1670-1990 (including proxy data). Based on a multiple correlation and coherence analysis a regression model is evaluated which is simultaneously forced by the observed or reconstructed atmospheric CO(2) or equivalent CO(2) concentration increase, volcanic activity, solar variations, and the ENSO (El Niño/southern oscillation) mechanism including phase shifts between cause and effect. This model reveals a greenhouse-gas-induced mean global temperature rise of 0.6-0.8 K since preindustrial time (c. 1800-1990). Following the IPCC business-as-usual scenario (trend extrapolation) this would lead to a hypothetical 3.8 K temperature rise in 2100 (best estimate, uncertainty + 0.7/-0.4 K compared to the 1985 value.

  17. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  18. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A La Sorte

    Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among

  19. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jetz, Walter; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2014-01-01

    Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity

  20. Climate change impact on the roles of temperature and precipitation in western U.S. snowpack variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scalzitti, Jason; Strong, Courtenay; Kochanski, Adam

    2016-05-01

    We employ dynamical downscaling and pseudo global warming methodologies to evaluate climate change impact on the roles of temperature and precipitation in spring snowpack (S) variability across the western United States (U.S.). The negative correlation between S and temperature weakens linearly with elevation, whereas the correlation between S and precipitation increases asymptotically with elevation. The curvilinear relationship in the latter case was not visible in prior studies because of the observation networks' limited range. In our historical validation, there is a range of threshold elevations (1580-2181 m) across six mountainous regions, above which precipitation is the main driver of snowpack variability and below which temperature is the main driver. Under a moderate end-of-century climate change scenario, these thresholds increase by 191 to 432 m. These rising thresholds indicate increasing spatial and elevational vulnerability of western U.S. spring snowpack along with associated impacts to hydrologic and ecologic systems.

  1. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  2. Metabolic scope and interspecific competition in sculpins of Greenland are influenced by increased temperatures due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth, Henrik; Gräns, Albin; Sandblom, Erik; Olsson, Catharina; Wiklander, Kerstin; Johnsson, Jörgen I; Axelsson, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing climate change has led to an increase in sea surface temperatures of 2-4°C on the west coast of Greenland. Since fish are ectothermic, metabolic rate increases with ambient temperature. This makes these animals particularly sensitive to changes in temperature; subsequently any change may influence their metabolic scope, i.e. the physiological capacity to undertake aerobically challenging activities. Any temperature increase may thus disrupt species-specific temperature adaptations, at both the molecular level as well as in behavior, and concomitant species differences in the temperature sensitivity may shift the competitive balance among coexisting species. We investigated the influence of temperature on metabolic scope and competitive ability in three species of marine sculpin that coexist in Greenland coastal waters. Since these species have different distribution ranges, we hypothesized that there should be a difference in their physiological response to temperature; hence we compared their metabolic scope at three temperatures (4, 9 and 14°C). Their competitive ability at the ambient temperature of 9°C was also tested in an attempt to link physiological capacity with behaviour. The Arctic staghorn sculpin, the species with the northernmost distribution range, had a lower metabolic scope in the higher temperature range compared to the other two species, which had similar metabolic scope at the three temperatures. The Arctic staghorn sculpin also had reduced competitive ability at 9°C and may thus already be negatively affected by the current ocean warming. Our results suggest that climate change can have effects on fish physiology and interspecific competition, which may alter the species composition of the Arctic fish fauna.

  3. Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. Ficklin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled General Circulation Model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River Basin. On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil flow, and groundwater, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the season and ecological province. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by non-migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically-explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the

  4. Temperature, but not pH, compromises sea urchin fertilization and early development under near-future climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Byrne, Maria; Ho, Melanie; Selvakumaraswamy, Paulina; Nguyen, Hong D; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Davis, Andy R

    2009-05-22

    Global warming is causing ocean warming and acidification. The distribution of Heliocidaris erythrogramma coincides with the eastern Australia climate change hot spot, where disproportionate warming makes marine biota particularly vulnerable to climate change. In keeping with near-future climate change scenarios, we determined the interactive effects of warming and acidification on fertilization and development of this echinoid. Experimental treatments (20-26 degrees C, pH 7.6-8.2) were tested in all combinations for the 'business-as-usual' scenario, with 20 degrees C/pH 8.2 being ambient. Percentage of fertilization was high (>89%) across all treatments. There was no difference in percentage of normal development in any pH treatment. In elevated temperature conditions, +4 degrees C reduced cleavage by 40 per cent and +6 degrees C by a further 20 per cent. Normal gastrulation fell below 4 per cent at +6 degrees C. At 26 degrees C, development was impaired. As the first study of interactive effects of temperature and pH on sea urchin development, we confirm the thermotolerance and pH resilience of fertilization and embryogenesis within predicted climate change scenarios, with negative effects at upper limits of ocean warming. Our findings place single stressor studies in context and emphasize the need for experiments that address ocean warming and acidification concurrently. Although ocean acidification research has focused on impaired calcification, embryos may not reach the skeletogenic stage in a warm ocean. PMID:19324767

  5. Relationship between alpine tourism demand and hot summer air temperatures associated with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebetez, M.; Serquet, G.

    2010-09-01

    We quantified the impacts of hot summer air temperatures on tourism in the Swiss Alps by analyzing the relationship between temperature and overnight stays in 40 Alpine resorts. Several temperature and insolation thresholds were tested to detect their relationship to summer tourism. Our results reveal significant correlations between the number of nights spent in mountain resorts and hot temperatures at lower elevations. Alpine resorts nearest to cities are most sensitive to hot temperatures. This is probably because reactions to hot episodes take place on a short-term basis as heat waves remain relatively rare. The correlation in June is stronger compared to the other months, probably because school holidays and the peak domestic tourist demand in summer usually takes place in July and August. Our results suggest that alpine tourist resorts could benefit from hotter temperatures at lower elevations under future climates. Tourists already react on a short-term basis to hot days and spend more nights in hotels in mountain resorts. If heat waves become more regular, it seems likely that tourists choose to stay at alpine resorts more frequently and for longer periods.

  6. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  7. Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yingying; Wang, Xiaojing; Silander, John A

    2015-11-01

    Changes in spring and autumn phenology of temperate plants in recent decades have become iconic bio-indicators of rapid climate change. These changes have substantial ecological and economic impacts. However, autumn phenology remains surprisingly little studied. Although the effects of unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) on autumn phenology have been observed for over 60 y, how these factors interact to influence autumn phenological events remain poorly understood. Using remotely sensed phenology data from 2001 to 2012, this study identified and quantified significant effects of a suite of environmental factors on the timing of fall dormancy of deciduous forest communities in New England, United States. Cold, frost, and wet conditions, and high heat-stress tended to induce earlier dormancy of deciduous forests, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Deciduous forests in two eco-regions showed contrasting, nonlinear responses to variation in these explanatory factors. Based on future climate projection over two periods (2041-2050 and 2090-2099), later dormancy dates were predicted in northern areas. However, in coastal areas earlier dormancy dates were predicted. Our models suggest that besides warming in climate change, changes in frost and moisture conditions as well as extreme weather events (e.g., drought- and heat-stress, and flooding), should also be considered in future predictions of autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forests. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables interact to affect autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems, and points the way to building more mechanistic and predictive models.

  8. Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yingying; Wang, Xiaojing; Silander, John A

    2015-11-01

    Changes in spring and autumn phenology of temperate plants in recent decades have become iconic bio-indicators of rapid climate change. These changes have substantial ecological and economic impacts. However, autumn phenology remains surprisingly little studied. Although the effects of unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) on autumn phenology have been observed for over 60 y, how these factors interact to influence autumn phenological events remain poorly understood. Using remotely sensed phenology data from 2001 to 2012, this study identified and quantified significant effects of a suite of environmental factors on the timing of fall dormancy of deciduous forest communities in New England, United States. Cold, frost, and wet conditions, and high heat-stress tended to induce earlier dormancy of deciduous forests, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Deciduous forests in two eco-regions showed contrasting, nonlinear responses to variation in these explanatory factors. Based on future climate projection over two periods (2041-2050 and 2090-2099), later dormancy dates were predicted in northern areas. However, in coastal areas earlier dormancy dates were predicted. Our models suggest that besides warming in climate change, changes in frost and moisture conditions as well as extreme weather events (e.g., drought- and heat-stress, and flooding), should also be considered in future predictions of autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forests. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables interact to affect autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems, and points the way to building more mechanistic and predictive models. PMID:26483475

  9. Effect of climate change on water temperature and attainment of water temperature criteria in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Cheryl A.; Sharp, Darrin; Mochon Collura, T. Chris

    2016-02-01

    There is increasing evidence that our planet is warming and this warming is also resulting in rising sea levels. Estuaries which are located at the interface between land and ocean are impacted by these changes. We used CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model to predict changes in water temperature as a function of increasing air temperatures and rising sea level for the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA). Annual average air temperature in the Yaquina watershed is expected to increase about 0.3 °C per decade by 2040-2069. An air temperature increase of 3 °C in the Yaquina watershed is likely to result in estuarine water temperature increasing by 0.7-1.6 °C. Largest water temperature increases are expected in the upper portion of the estuary, while sea level rise may mitigate some of the warming in the lower portion of the estuary. Smallest changes in water temperature are predicted to occur in the summer, and maximum changes during the winter and spring. Increases in air temperature may result in an increase in the number of days per year that the 7-day maximum average temperature exceeds 18 °C (criterion for protection of rearing and migration of salmonids and trout) as well as other water quality concerns. In the upstream portion of the estuary, a 4 °C increase in air temperature is predicted to cause an increase of 40 days not meeting the temperature criterion, while in the lower estuary the increase will depend upon rate of sea level rise (ranging from 31 to 19 days).

  10. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  11. Water temperature and fish growth: otoliths predict growth patterns of a marine fish in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rountrey, Adam N; Coulson, Peter G; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Meekan, Mark

    2014-08-01

    Ecological modeling shows that even small, gradual changes in body size in a fish population can have large effects on natural mortality, biomass, and catch. However, efforts to model the impact of climate change on fish growth have been hampered by a lack of long-term (multidecadal) data needed to understand the effects of temperature on growth rates in natural environments. We used a combination of dendrochronology techniques and additive mixed-effects modeling to examine the sensitivity of growth in a long-lived (up to 70 years), endemic marine fish, the western blue groper (Achoerodus gouldii), to changes in water temperature. A multi-decadal biochronology (1952-2003) of growth was constructed from the otoliths of 56 fish collected off the southwestern coast of Western Australia, and we tested for correlations between the mean index chronology and a range of potential environmental drivers. The chronology was significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the region, but common variance among individuals was low. This suggests that this species has been relatively insensitive to past variations in climate. Growth increment and age data were also used in an additive mixed model to predict otolith growth and body size later this century. Although growth was relatively insensitive to changes in temperature, the model results suggested that a fish aged 20 in 2099 would have an otolith about 10% larger and a body size about 5% larger than a fish aged 20 in 1977. Our study shows that species or populations regarded as relatively insensitive to climate change could still undergo significant changes in growth rate and body size that are likely to have important effects on the productivity and yield of fisheries.

  12. The effects of temperature increases on a temperate phytoplankton community - A mesocosm climate change scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen, Majbritt Kjeldahl; Nielsen, Kathryn Dewar; Richardson, Katherine;

    2010-01-01

    temperature (RM). The development in the chlorophyll concentrations showed an earlier bloom as a response to increased temperatures but the carbon biomass showed that the warmest treatment yielded the lowest biomass. This study indicates that a part of the relationship between temperature and spring bloom...... on phytoplankton community composition. However, the HPLC data indicated that temperature changes of as little as 3 °C influence the community composition. In particular, these data showed that peridinin-containing dinoflagellates only increased in abundance in the heated mesocosms and that a prasinophycean bloom......, which was undetected in the microscope analyses, occurred prior to the blooms of all other phytoplankton classes in all treatments. The microscope analyses did reveal a temperature effect on individual species distribution patterns. Thalassionema nitzschioides was more abundant in the warm treatments...

  13. Temperature and resource availability may interactively affect over-wintering success of juvenile fish in a changing climate.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakob Brodersen

    Full Text Available The predicted global warming may affect freshwater systems at several organizational levels, from organism to ecosystem. Specifically, in temperate regions, the projected increase of winter temperatures may have important effects on the over-winter biology of a range of organisms and especially for fish and other ectothermic animals. However, temperature effects on organisms may be directed strongly by resource availability. Here, we investigated whether over-winter loss of biomass and lipid content of juvenile roach (Rutilus rutilus was affected by the physiologically relatively small (2-5 °C changes of winter temperatures predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, under both natural and experimental conditions. This was investigated in combination with the effects of food availability. Finally, we explored the potential for a correlation between lake temperature and resource levels for planktivorous fish, i.e., zooplankton biomass, during five consecutive winters in a south Swedish lake. We show that small increases in temperature (+2 °C affected fish biomass loss in both presence and absence of food, but negatively and positively respectively. Temperature alone explained only a minor part of the variation when food availability was not taken into account. In contrast to other studies, lipid analyses of experimental fish suggest that critical somatic condition rather than critical lipid content determined starvation induced mortality. Our results illustrate the importance of considering not only changes in temperature when predicting organism response to climate change but also food-web interactions, such as resource availability and predation. However, as exemplified by our finding that zooplankton over-winter biomass in the lake was not related to over-winter temperature, this may not be a straightforward task.

  14. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial-scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Whitney K.; Stein, Michael L.; McInerney, David J.; Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-07-01

    Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future (700 and 1400 ppm CO2) conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that warm extremes largely change in accordance with mean shifts in the distribution of summertime temperatures. Cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in the distribution of wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are generally well explained by the combination of mean shifts and reduced wintertime temperature variability. For cold extremes at inland locations, return levels at long recurrence intervals show additional effects related to changes in the spread and shape of GEV distributions. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In theory, the GEV distribution can allow prediction of infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence interval of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.

  15. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  16. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  17. Modelling of surface-water temperature for the estimation of the Czech fishery productivity under the climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svobodová, Eva; Trnka, Miroslav; Kopp, Radovan; Mareš, Jan; Dubrovský, Martin; Spurný, Petr; Žalud, Zděněk

    2015-04-01

    Freshwater fish production is significantly correlated with water temperature which is expected to increase under the climate change. This study is dealing with the estimation of the change of water temperature in productive ponds and its impact on the fishery in the Czech Republic. Calculation of surface-water temperature which was based on three-day mean of the air temperature was developed and tested in several ponds in three main fish production areas. Output of surface-water temperature model was compared with measured data and showed that the lower range of model accuracy is surface-water temperature 3°C, under this temperature threshold the model loses its predictive competence. In the expecting of surface-water temperature above the temperature 3°C the model has proved the well consistence between observed and modelled surface-water temperature (R 0.79 - 0.96). Verified model was applied in the conditions of climate change determined by the pattern scaling method, in which standardised scenarios were derived from five global circulation models MPEH5, CSMK3, IPCM4, GFCM21 and HADGEM. Results were evaluated with regard to thresholds which characterise the fish species requirements on water temperature. Used thresholds involved the upper temperature threshold for fish survival and the tolerable number of days in continual period with mentioned threshold surface-water temperature. Target fish species were Common carp (Cyprinus carpio), Maraene whitefish (Coregonus maraena), Northern whitefish (Coregonus peled) and Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykis). Results indicated the limitation of the Czech fish-farming in terms of i) the increase of the length of continual periods with surface-water temperature above the threshold appropriate to given fish species toleration, ii) the increase of the number of continual periods with surface-water temperature above the threshold, both appropriate to given fish species toleration, and iii) the increase of overall number of

  18. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pancic, Marina; Hansen, Per Juel; Tammilehto, Anna;

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8...... C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other...... the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms...

  19. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  20. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  1. Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

    2016-07-01

    Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may

  2. Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

    2016-07-01

    Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may

  3. Perceived temperature in the course of climate change: an analysis of global heat index from 1979 to 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D.; Brenner, T.

    2015-08-01

    The increase in global mean temperatures resulting from climate change has wide reaching consequences for the earth's ecosystems and other natural systems. Many studies have been devoted to evaluating the distribution and effects of these changes. We go a step further and propose the use of the heat index, a measure of the temperature as perceived by humans, to evaluate global changes. The heat index, which is computed from temperature and relative humidity, is more important than temperature for the health of humans and animals. Even in cases where the heat index does not reach dangerous levels from a health perspective, it has been shown to be an important factor in worker productivity and thus in economic productivity. We compute the heat index from dew point temperature and absolute temperature 2 m above ground from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set for the years 1979-2013. The described data set provides global heat index aggregated to daily minima, means and maxima per day (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.841057). This paper examines these data, as well as showing aggregations to monthly and yearly values. Furthermore, the data are spatially aggregated to the level of countries after being weighted by population density in order to facilitate the analysis of its impact on human health and productivity. The resulting data deliver insights into the spatiotemporal development of near-ground heat index during the course of the past three decades. It is shown that the impact of changing heat index is unevenly distributed through space and time, affecting some areas differently than others. The data can serve as a basis for evaluating and understanding the evolution of heat index in the course of climate change, as well as its impact on human health and productivity.

  4. The Lesser Known Challenge of Climate Change: Thermal Variance and Sex-Reversal in Vertebrates with Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination

    OpenAIRE

    Neuwald, Jennifer L.; Nicole Valenzuela

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is expected to disrupt biological systems. Particularly susceptible are species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), as in many reptiles. While the potentially devastating effect of rising mean temperatures on sex ratios in TSD species is appreciated, the consequences of increased thermal variance predicted to accompany climate change remain obscure. Surprisingly, no study has tested if the effect of thermal variance around high-temperatures (which are particular...

  5. Interrelationship of rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration trends and their net response to the climate change in Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Sananda; Khare, Deepak; Mondal, Arun

    2016-09-01

    The monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2011 and maximum and minimum temperature data from 1901 to 2005 are used along with the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) to analyze the climate trend of 45 stations of Madhya Pradesh. ET0 is calculated by the Hargreaves method from 1901 to 2005 and the computed data is then used for trend analysis. The temporal variation and the spatial distribution of trend are studied for seasonal and annual series with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's estimator of slope. The percentage of change is used to find the rate of change in 111 years (rainfall) and 105 years (temperatures and ET0). Interrelationships among these variables are analyzed to see the dependency of one variable on the other. The results indicate a decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures and ET0 trend. A similar pattern is noticeable in all seasons except for monsoon season in temperature and ET0 trend analysis. The highest increase of temperature is noticed during post-monsoon and winter. Rainfall shows a notable decrease in the monsoon season. The entire state of Madhya Pradesh is considered as a single unit, and the calculation of overall net change in the amount of the rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum) and ET0 is done to estimate the total loss or gain in monthly, seasonal and annual series. The results show net loss or deficit in the amount of rainfall and the net gain or excess in the temperature and ET0 amount.

  6. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  7. Climate change and agroecosystems: the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Streck Nereu Augusto

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2 of the Earths atmosphere is increasing, which has the potential of increasing greenhouse effect and air temperature in the future. Plants respond to environment CO2 and temperature. Therefore, climate change may affect agriculture. The purpose of this paper was to review the literature about the impact of a possible increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield. Increasing CO2 concentration increases crop yield once the substrate for photosynthesis and the gradient of CO2 concentration between atmosphere and leaf increase. C3 plants will benefit more than C4 plants at elevated CO2. However, if global warming will take place, an increase in temperature may offset the benefits of increasing CO2 on crop yield.

  8. The Impacts of Maximum Temperature and Climate Change to Current and Future Pollen Distribution in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Kendrovski

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND. The goal of the present paper was to assess the impact of current and future burden of the ambient temperature to pollen distributions in Skopje. METHODS. In the study we have evaluated a correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere of Skopje and maximum temperature, during the vegetation period of 1996, 2003, 2007 and 2009 as a current burden in context of climate change. For our analysis we have selected 9 representative of each phytoallergen group (trees, grasses, weeds. The concentration of pollen grains has been monitored by a Lanzoni volumetric pollen trap. The correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere and selected meteorological variable from weekly monitoring has been studied with the help of linear regression and correlation coefficients. RESULTS. The prevalence of the sensibilization of standard pollen allergens in Skopje during the some period shows increasing from 16,9% in 1996 to 19,8% in 2009. We detect differences in onset of flowering, maximum and end of the length of seasons for pollen. The pollen distributions and risk increases in 3 main periods: early spring, spring and summer which are the main cause of allergies during these seasons. The largest increase of air temperature due to climate change in Skopje is expected in the summer season. CONCLUSION. The impacts of climate change by increasing of the temperature in the next decades very likely will include impacts on pollen production and differences in current pollen season. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2012; 11(1.000: 35-40

  9. A relationship between regional and global GCM surface air temperature changes and its application to an integrated model of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study outlines the advantages of combining the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse affect (IMAGE, an integrated quick turnaround, global model of climate change) with a spatially detailed General Circulation Model (GCM), in this case developed at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI) in Hamburg. The outcome is a modified IMAGE model that simulates the MPI GCM projections of annual surface air temperature change globally and regionally. IMAGE thus provides policy analysts with integrated and regional information about global warming for a great range of policy-dependent greenhouse gas emission or concentration scenarios, while preserving its quick turnaround time. With the help of IMAGE various regional temperature response simulations have been produced. None of these simulations has yet been performed by any GCM. The simulations reflect the uncertainty range of a future warming. In this study the authors deal only with a simplified subsystem of such an integrated model of climate change, which begins with policy options, neglects the societal component in the greenhouse gas accounting tool, and ends with temperature change as the only output of the climate model. The model the authors employ is the Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE, version 1.0), which was developed by the Netherlands National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection (RIVM). IMAGE is a scientifically based, parameterized simulation policy model designed to calculate the historical and future effects of greenhouse gases on global surface and surface air temperatures and sea-level rise

  10. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  11. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  12. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  13. Future PMPs Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario: Focus on Dew Point Temperature Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okjeong, Lee; Sangdan, Kim

    2016-04-01

    According to future climate change scenarios, future temperature is expected to increase gradually. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the effects of these climate changes to predict Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMPs). In this presentation, PMPs will be estimated with future dew point temperature change. After selecting 174 major storm events from 1981 to 2005, new PMPs will be proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2,025, 4,900, 10,000 and 19,600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. Also, orographic transposition factor will be applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous Korean PMPs estimation reports. After estimating dew point temperature using future temperature and representative humidity information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under dew point temperature change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  14. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  15. Multi-Model Projection of July-August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongmei; FENG Lei; ZHOU Tianjun

    2011-01-01

    This is the second part of the authors' analysis on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (lpctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July-August temperature extremes over China. The pattern correlation coefficients of the simulated temperature with the observations are 0.6-0.9, which are higher than the results for precipitation. However, most models have cold bias compared to observation, with a larger cold bias over western China (>5℃) than over eastern China (<2℃). The multi-model ensemble (MME)exhibits a significant increase of temperature under the lpctto2x scenario. The amplitude of the MME warming shows a northwest-southeast decreasing gradient. The warming spread among the models (~1℃-2℃) is less than MME warming (~2℃-4℃), indicating a relativelyrobust temperature change under CO2doubling. Further analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1(GFDL-CM2.1) simulations suggests that the warming pattern may be related to heat transport by summer monsoons. The contrast of cloud effects also has contributions. The different vertical structures of warming over northwestern China and southeastern China may be attributed to the different natures of vertical circulations. The deep, moist convection over southeastern China is an effective mechanism for "transporting"the warming upward, leading to more upper-level warming. In northwestern China, the warming is more surface-orientated, possibly due to the shallow, dry convection.

  16. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Kanchan Joshi; Preeti Chaturvedi

    2013-01-01

    Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  17. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  18. Projections of high resolution climate changes for South Korea using multiple-regional climate models based on four RCP scenarios. Part 1: surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suh, Myoung-Seok; Oh, Seok-Geun; Lee, Young-Suk; Ahn, Joong-Bae; Cha, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Hong, Song-You; Min, Seung-Ki; Park, Seong-Chan; Kang, Hyun-Suk

    2016-05-01

    We projected surface air temperature changes over South Korea during the mid (2026-2050) and late (2076-2100) 21st century against the current climate (1981-2005) using the simulation results from five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, coupled with the Atmosphere- Ocean (HadGEM2-AO), and two ensemble methods (equal weighted averaging, weighted averaging based on Taylor's skill score) under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In general, the five RCM ensembles captured the spatial and seasonal variations, and probability distribution of temperature over South Korea reasonably compared to observation. They particularly showed a good performance in simulating annual temperature range compared to HadGEM2-AO. In future simulation, the temperature over South Korea will increase significantly for all scenarios and seasons. Stronger warming trends are projected in the late 21st century than in the mid-21st century, in particular under RCP8.5. The five RCM ensembles projected that temperature changes for the mid/late 21st century relative to the current climate are +1.54°C/+1.92°C for RCP2.6, +1.68°C/+2.91°C for RCP4.5, +1.17°C/+3.11°C for RCP6.0, and +1.75°C/+4.73°C for RCP8.5. Compared to the temperature projection of HadGEM2-AO, the five RCM ensembles projected smaller increases in temperature for all RCP scenarios and seasons. The inter-RCM spread is proportional to the simulation period (i.e., larger in the late-21st than mid-21st century) and significantly greater (about four times) in winter than summer for all RCP scenarios. Therefore, the modeled predictions of temperature increases during the late 21st century, particularly for winter temperatures, should be used with caution.

  19. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  20. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  1. Shallow groundwater thermal sensitivity to climate change and land cover disturbances: derivation of analytical expressions and implications for stream temperature modeling

    OpenAIRE

    B. L. Kurylyk; MacQuarrie, K. T. B.; D. Caissie; McKenzie, J. M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is expected to increase stream temperatures and the projected warming may alter the spatial extent of habitat for cold-water fish and other aquatic taxa. Recent studies have proposed that stream thermal sensitivities, derived from short-term air temperature variations, can be employed to infer future stream warming due to long-term climate change. However, this approach does not consider the potential for streambed heat fluxes to increase due to gradual warmin...

  2. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  3. Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of warming seawater on the spatial extent of suitable versus unsuitable habitats for temperate seaweed Ecklonia cava, which is predominantly found in southern Japanese waters. SST data were generated using the most recent multiple climate projection models and emission scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, grazing by Siganus fuscescens, an herbivorous fish, was evaluated under the four RCP simulations. Our results suggest that continued warming may drive a poleward shift in the distribution of E. cava, with large differences depending on the climate scenario. For the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6), most existing E. cava populations would not be impacted by seawater warming directly but would be adversely affected by intensified year-round grazing. For the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), previously suitable habitats throughout coastal Japan would become untenable for E. cava by the 2090s, due to both high-temperature stress and intensified grazing. Our projections highlight the importance of not only mitigating regional warming due to climate change, but also protecting E. cava from herbivores to conserve suitable habitats on the Japanese coast.

  4. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  5. Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon A Morley

    Full Text Available The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna, New Zealand (Cellana ornata, Australia (C. tramoserica and Singapore (C. radiata, were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna to 14.3°C (C. ornata to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica to 27.6°C (C. radiata. The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max and T(opt over habitat temperature. However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their

  6. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  7. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  8. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  9. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  10. Climate Change and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speake...

  11. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  12. Simulated Climate Change Effects of Snowpack Manipulations on Soil Temperature and Moisture in the Sierra Nevada Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, B. G.; Jasoni, R. L.; Arnone, J.

    2012-12-01

    Future changes in climate are predicted to significantly affect the type and amount of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California and Nevada. Because most of the yearly precipitation in this region falls as snow, changes in snowfall amount, snowfall timing, and duration of the snowpack may dramatically affect the timing and persistence of soil temperature and moisture, and biological processes dependent on these soil factors. The objective of our study was to quantify the effects of manipulating snowpack amounts on soil temperature and moisture over a two year period, including both the addition and removal of snow in a Pinus jeffreii (Jeffrey Pine) forest located northeast of Lake Tahoe, Nevada. Soil temperatures measured during the first winter (above average snow year) remained higher in control plots when snow was present, and in snow-addition plots, than in snow-removal plots. However, these effects did not persist in the second year when total snowfall amounted to only 20% of that occurring in the first year. Surprisingly, the effects on soil moisture persisted through the summer of year two with soil VWC in snow removal plots averaging approximately 50% drier than the snow addition plots (6.5% average VWC in snow removal and 13.2% in snow addition plots) and 13% drier on average than the control plots (7.5% average VWC in control plots).These results suggest the possibility of prolonged reductions in soil moisture, soil microbial activity, plant growth, and even increased danger of wildfires if anthropogenic climate change reduces snowfall amount and snowpack duration.

  13. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  14. Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Scott; Delage, François; Wang, Guomin; Smith, Ian; Kociuba, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Observed surface temperature trends over the period 1998-2012/2014 have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short-trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in the model values and the implications for global warming generally. Here we re-examine these issues, but as they relate to changes over much longer-term changes. We find that on multi-decadal time scales there is little evidence for any change in the observed global warming rate, but some evidence for a recent temporary slowdown in the warming rate in the Pacific. This multi-decadal slowdown can be partly explained by a cool phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and a short-term excess of La Niña events. We also analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP climate models. All of the model simulations examined simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This difference cannot be fully explained by observed internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. Models which simulate the greatest global warming over the past half-century also project warming that is among the highest of all models by the end of the twenty-first century, under both low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Given that the same models are poorest in representing observed multi-decadal temperature change, confidence in the highest projections is reduced.

  15. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  16. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  17. Effects of Temperature on Development and Voltinism of Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae): Implications for Climate Change Impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, Jeong Joon; Son, Youngsoo; He, Yaqian; Lee, Eungul; Park, Yong-Lak

    2016-01-01

    Temperature plays an important role in the growth and development of arthropods, and thus the current trend of climate change will alter their biology and species distribution. We used Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae), a cleptoparasitic mite associated with Osmia bees (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), as a model organism to investigate how temperature affects the development and voltinism of C. krombeini in the eastern United States. The effects of temperature on the stage-specific development of C. krombeini were determined at seven constant temperatures (16.1, 20.2, 24.1, 27.5, 30.0, 32.4 and 37.8°C). Parameters for stage-specific development, such as threshold temperatures and thermal constant, were determined by using empirical models. Results of this study showed that C. krombeini eggs developed successfully to adult at all temperatures tested except 37.8°C. The nonlinear and linear empirical models were applied to describe quantitatively the relationship between temperature and development of each C. krombeini stage. The nonlinear Lactin model estimated optimal temperatures as 31.4, 32.9, 32.6 and 32.5°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. In the linear model, the lower threshold temperatures were estimated to be 9.9, 14.7, 13.0 and 12.4°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. The thermal constant for each stage completion were 61.5, 28.1, 64.8 and 171.1 degree days for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the number of generations (i.e., voltinism) would increase more likely by 1.5 to 2.0 times by the year of 2100 according to simulation. The findings herein firstly provided comprehensive data on thermal development of C. krombeini and implications for the management of C. krombeini populations under global warming were discussed. *Scientific Article No. 3278 of the West Virginia Agricultural and Forestry Experiment Station, Morgantown, West Virginia. PMID

  18. Analyzing the Effects of Climate Change on Sea Surface Temperature in Monitoring Coral Reef Health in the Florida Keys Using Sea Surface Temperature Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jason; Burbank, Renane; Billiot, Amanda; Schultz, Logan

    2011-01-01

    This presentation discusses use of 4 kilometer satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) data to monitor and assess coral reef areas of the Florida Keys. There are growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on coral reef systems throughout the world. Satellite remote sensing technology is being used for monitoring coral reef areas with the goal of understanding the climatic and oceanic changes that can lead to coral bleaching events. Elevated SST is a well-documented cause of coral bleaching events. Some coral monitoring studies have used 50 km data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to study the relationships of sea surface temperature anomalies to bleaching events. In partnership with NOAA's Office of National Marine Sanctuaries and the University of South Florida's Institute for Marine Remote Sensing, this project utilized higher resolution SST data from the Terra's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and AVHRR. SST data for 2000-2010 was employed to compute sea surface temperature anomalies within the study area. The 4 km SST anomaly products enabled visualization of SST levels for known coral bleaching events from 2000-2010.

  19. Diatom cell size, coloniality and motility: trade-offs between temperature, salinity and nutrient supply with climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filip Svensson

    Full Text Available Reduction in body size has been proposed as a universal response of organisms, both to warming and to decreased salinity. However, it is still controversial if size reduction is caused by temperature or salinity on their own, or if other factors interfere as well. We used natural benthic diatom communities to explore how "body size" (cells and colonies and motility change along temperature (2-26°C and salinity (0.5-7.8 gradients in the brackish Baltic Sea. Fourth-corner analysis confirmed that small cell and colony sizes were associated with high temperature in summer. Average community cell volume decreased linearly with 2.2% per °C. However, cells were larger with artificial warming when nutrient concentrations were high in the cold season. Average community cell volume increased by 5.2% per °C of artificial warming from 0 to 8.5°C and simultaneously there was a selection for motility, which probably helped to optimize growth rates by trade-offs between nutrient supply and irradiation. Along the Baltic Sea salinity gradient cell size decreased with decreasing salinity, apparently mediated by nutrient stoichiometry. Altogether, our results suggest that climate change in this century may polarize seasonality by creating two new niches, with elevated temperature at high nutrient concentrations in the cold season (increasing cell size and elevated temperature at low nutrient concentrations in the warm season (decreasing cell size. Higher temperature in summer and lower salinity by increased land-runoff are expected to decrease the average cell size of primary producers, which is likely to affect the transfer of energy to higher trophic levels.

  20. Climate change, nutrition and immunity: Effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on the immune function of an insect herbivore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gherlenda, Andrew N; Haigh, Anthony M; Moore, Ben D; Johnson, Scott N; Riegler, Markus

    2016-02-01

    Balanced nutrition is fundamental to health and immunity. For herbivorous insects, nutrient-compositional shifts in host plants due to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperature may compromise this balance. Therefore, understanding their immune responses to such shifts is vital if we are to predict the outcomes of climate change for plant-herbivore-parasitoid and pathogen interactions. We tested the immune response of Paropsis atomaria Olivier (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) feeding on Eucalyptus tereticornis Sm. seedlings exposed to elevated CO2 (640 μmol mol(-1); CE) and temperature (ambient plus 4 °C; TE). Larvae were immune-challenged with a nylon monofilament in order to simulate parasitoid or pathogen attack without other effects of actual parasitism or pathology. The cellular (in vivo melanisation) and humoral (in vitro phenoloxidase PO activity) immune responses were assessed, and linked to changes in leaf chemistry. CE reduced foliar nitrogen (N) concentrations and increased C:N ratios and concentrations of total phenolics. The humoral response was reduced at CE. PO activity and haemolymph protein concentrations decreased at CE, while haemolymph protein concentrations were positively correlated with foliar N concentrations. However, the cellular response increased at CE and this was not correlated with any foliar traits. Immune parameters were not impacted by TE. Our study revealed that opposite cellular and humoral immune responses occurred as a result of plant-mediated effects at CE. In contrast, elevated temperatures within the tested range had minimal impact on immune responses. These complex interactions may alter the outcomes of parasitoid and pathogen attack in future climates. PMID:26678330

  1. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  2. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... entrepreneurs create windows for action through the establishment of local networks. The thesis contributes knowledge on the constraints of the internal integration process in city governments. It provides explanations of why these constraints occur, and how officials seek to overcome them. The thesis provides...

  3. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  4. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  5. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  6. Effects of climate change on water requirements and phenological period of major crops in Heihe River basin, China - Based on the accumulated temperature threshold method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Dongmei; Xu, Xinyi; Yan, Denghua

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, global climate change has significantly caused a serious crisis of water resources throughout the world. However, mainly through variations in temperature, climate change will affect water requirements of crop. It is obvious that the rise of temperature affects growing period and phenological period of crop directly, then changes the water demand quota of crop. Methods including accumulated temperature threshold and climatic tendency rate were adopted, which made up for the weakness of phenological observations, to reveal the response of crop phenological change during the growing period. Then using Penman-Menteith model and crop coefficients from the United Nations Food& Agriculture Organization (FAO), the paper firstly explored crop water requirements in different growth periods, and further forecasted quantitatively crop water requirements in Heihe River Basin, China under different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that: (i) The results of crop phenological change established in the method of accumulated temperature threshold were in agreement with measured results, and (ii) there were many differences in impacts of climate warming on water requirement of different crops. The growth periods of wheat and corn had tendency of shortening as well as the length of growth periods. (ii)Results of crop water requirements under different climate change scenarios showed: when temperature increased by 1°C, the start time of wheat growth period changed, 2 days earlier than before, and the length of total growth period shortened 2 days. Wheat water requirements increased by 1.4mm. However, corn water requirements decreased by almost 0.9mm due to the increasing temperature of 1°C. And the start time of corn growth period become 3 days ahead, and the length of total growth period shortened 4 days. Therefore, the contradiction between water supply and water demands are more obvious under the future climate warming in Heihe River Basin, China.

  7. Modeling Climate Change and Thermal Restoration Strategies in a Northern California Stream Using HEAT SOURCE and Distributed Temperature Sensing Fiber-optics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bond, R. M.; Stubblefield, A. P.

    2013-12-01

    Land uses which modify stream channel structure and riparian vegetation can alter the mechanisms of heat transfer within a stream. Stream temperature is a crucial abiotic factor which governs aquatic biota quantity, distribution, and overall health. The IPCC has projected stream temperature to increase with changes in global climate due to elevated air temperature and changes in precipitation patterns. Stream temperature modeling can investigate current and future stream temperature conditions. Heat Source, developed by Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ), was applied to a one kilometer section of the North Fork of the Salmon River, a tributary of the Klamath River, northern California, USA. Heat Source accounts for internal and external thermal energy transfers to predict stream temperature at point locations. Inputs include meteorologic, geomorphologic, hydrologic and topographic measurements from the study site. The Salmon River watershed has a legacy of historic hydraulic gold mining which has changed channel morphology and created extensive denuded gravel bars. The Salmon River is listed as thermally impaired under California's List of Impaired Water Bodies 303(d) with mainstem temperature commonly exceeding salmonid temperature thresholds. The objective of this research was to utilize Heat Source to predict effects of climate change, riparian management, and channel geometry on stream temperature. This study employed Distributed Temperature Sensing fiber-optics (DTS) to detect stream heating and cooling at one meter resolution which was then used to calibrate Heat Source at the study reach. Predicted values closely matched DTS measurements reflecting shifting responses to air temperature, riparian vegetation distribution, and channel geometry conditions. Heat Source modeling of climate change scenarios using forecasted 2049 and 2099 elevated air temperatures are presented. Furthermore, temperature impacts of increased riparian vegetation density

  8. Climate change and temperature-dependent biogeography: oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance in animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pörtner, H. O.

    2001-03-01

    Recent years have shown a rise in mean global temperatures and a shift in the geographical distribution of ectothermic animals. For a cause and effect analysis the present paper discusses those physiological processes limiting thermal tolerance. The lower heat tolerance in metazoa compared with unicellular eukaryotes and bacteria suggests that a complex systemic rather than molecular process is limiting in metazoa. Whole-animal aerobic scope appears as the first process limited at low and high temperatures, linked to the progressively insufficient capacity of circulation and ventilation. Oxygen levels in body fluids may decrease, reflecting excessive oxygen demand at high temperatures or insufficient aerobic capacity of mitochondria at low temperatures. Aerobic scope falls at temperatures beyond the thermal optimum and vanishes at low or high critical temperatures when transition to an anaerobic mitochondrial metabolism occurs. The adjustment of mitochondrial densities on top of parallel molecular or membrane adjustments appears crucial for maintaining aerobic scope and for shifting thermal tolerance. In conclusion, the capacity of oxygen delivery matches full aerobic scope only within the thermal optimum. At temperatures outside this range, only time-limited survival is supported by residual aerobic scope, then anaerobic metabolism and finally molecular protection by heat shock proteins and antioxidative defence. In a cause and effect hierarchy, the progressive increase in oxygen limitation at extreme temperatures may even enhance oxidative and denaturation stress. As a corollary, capacity limitations at a complex level of organisation, the oxygen delivery system, define thermal tolerance limits before molecular functions become disturbed.

  9. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  10. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  11. A stable, unbiased, long-term satellite based data record of sea surface temperature from ESA's Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayner, Nick; Good, Simon; Merchant, Chris

    2013-04-01

    The study of climate change demands long-term, stable observational records of climate variables such as sea surface temperature (SST). ESA's Climate Change Initiative was set up to unlock the potential of satellite data records for this purpose. As part of this initiative, 13 projects were established to develop the data records for different essential climate variables - aerosol, cloud, fire, greenhouse gases, glaciers, ice sheets, land cover, ocean colour, ozone, sea ice, sea level, soil moisture and SST. In this presentation we describe the development work that has taken place in the SST project and present new prototype data products that are available now for users to trial. The SST project began in 2010 and has now produced two prototype products. The first is a long-term product (covering mid-1991 - 2010 currently, but with a view to update this in the future), which prioritises length of data record and stability over other considerations. It is based on data from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Advanced Very-High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) series of satellite instruments. The product aims to combine the favourable stability and bias characteristics of ATSR data with the geographical coverage achieved with the AVHRR series. Following an algorithm selection process, an optimal estimation approach to retrieving SST from the satellite measurements from both sensors was adopted. The retrievals do not depend on in situ data and so this data record represents an independent assessment of SST change. In situ data are, however, being used to validate the resulting data. The second data product demonstrates the coverage that can be achieved using the modern satellite observing system including, for example, geostationary satellite data. Six months worth of data have been processed for this demonstration product. The prototype SST products will be released in April to users to trial in their work. The long term product will be available as

  12. Assessment of simulated rainfall and temperature from the regional climate model REMO and future changes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Tchawoua, Clément; Haensler, Andreas

    2016-07-01

    This work investigates spatial and temporal changes in rainfall and temperature over Central Africa, using historical and representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the regional climate model REMO forced by two general climate models: the Europe-wide Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) and the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We found that in the present period (1980-2005), the spatial distribution of rainfall is simulated with an annual spatial pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.76 for REMO driven by EC-Earth and 0.74 for REMO driven by MPI-ESM respectively when compared to CRU data. In terms of temperature, the annual PCC is 0.93 for the two REMO outputs. According to the climatology of Central Africa, we subdivided the study area into five sub-regions, we also noticed that the annual and seasonal PCC depend on the considered sub-region. For the future period (2070-2095), temperature is projected to increase following all the three scenarios. The rainfall amount is projected to decrease by up to 5 mm/day towards the end of the twenty first century under RCP8.5 scenario, and by 1-2 mm/day under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios over Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo, north-western Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Lake Victoria. Significant decrease is predicted to occur mostly in the northern part of the domain under RCP8.5 scenario. However, future rainfall over High Lands of Cameroon, Adamawa Plateau, north-eastern DRC and Atlantic Ocean is projected to increase.

  13. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future. PMID:27300144

  14. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  15. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  16. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  17. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  18. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  19. Potential for added value in temperature simulated by high-resolution nested RCMs in present climate and in the climate change signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Luca, Alejandro; de Elía, Ramón; Laprise, René

    2013-01-01

    Regional Climate Models (RCMs) have been developed in the last two decades in order to produce high-resolution climate information by downscaling Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) simulations or analyses of observed data. A crucial evaluation of RCMs worth is given by the assessment of the value added compared to the driving data. This evaluation is usually very complex due to the manifold circumstances that can preclude a fair assessment. In order to circumvent these issues, here we limit ourselves to estimating the potential of RCMs to add value over coarse-resolution data. We do this by quantifying the importance of fine-scale RCM-resolved features in the near-surface temperature, but disregarding their skill. The Reynolds decomposition technique is used to separate the variance of the time-varying RCM-simulated temperature field according to the contribution of large and small spatial scales and of stationary and transient processes. The temperature variance is then approximated by the contribution of four terms, two of them associated with coarse-scales (e.g., corresponding to the scales that can be simulated by AOGCMs) and two of them describing the original contribution of RCM simulations. Results show that the potential added value (PAV) emerges almost exclusively in regions characterised by important surface forcings either due to the presence of fine-scale topography or land-water contrasts. Moreover, some of the processes leading to small-scale variability appear to be related with relatively simple mechanisms such as the distinct physical properties of the Earth surface and the general variation of temperature with altitude in the Earth atmosphere. Finally, the article includes some results of the application of the PAV framework to the future temperature change signal due to anthropogenic greenhouse gasses. Here, contrary to previous studies centred on precipitation, findings suggest for surface temperature a relatively low potential

  20. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  1. Change Of Distribution The Average Annual Temperature Indian Ocean Surface Under Modern Climate Warming

    OpenAIRE

    Холопцев, О. В.; Никифорова, М. П.; Жукова, Т. А.

    2014-01-01

    During the modern warming surface temperatures of the Indian Ocean rose steadily, driven by a reduction of its upwelling. In the twenty-first century, a large part of the waters of the ocean in this process appeared opposite trend, that due to the action of the global ocean heat conveyor has already led to a decrease in the flow of heat coming from the Indian Ocean to the South Atlantic.

  2. Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its temperature-related destabilization following climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Gruber, S.; Haeberli, W.

    2007-01-01

    Permafrost in steep bedrock is abundant in many cold-mountain areas, and its degradation can cause slope instability that is unexpected and unprecedented in location, magnitude, frequency, and timing. These phenomena bear consequences for the understanding of landscape evolution, natural hazards, and the safe and sustainable operation of high-mountain infrastructure. Permafrost in steep bedrock is an emerging field of research. Knowledge of rock temperatures, ice content, mechanisms of de...

  3. Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Attainment of Water Temperature Criteria in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    There is increasing evidence that our planet is warming and this warming is also resulting in rising sea levels. Estuaries which are located at the interface between land and ocean are impacted by these changes. We used CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model to predict changes in water...

  4. Climate change affects carbon allocation to the soil in shrublands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorissen, A.; Tietema, A.; Joosten, N.N.; Estiarte, M.; Peñuelas, J.; Sowerby, A.; Emmett, B.; Beier, J.C.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change may affect ecosystem functioning through increased temperatures or changes in precipitation patterns. Temperature and water availability are important drivers for ecosystem processes such as photosynthesis, carbon translocation, and organic matter decomposition. These climate changes

  5. New estimates of temperature response of leaf photosynthesis in Amazon forest trees, its acclimation to mean temperature change and consequences for modelling climate response to rain forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruijt, B.; Jans, W.; Vasconcelos, S.; Tribuzy, E. S.; Felsemburgh, C.; Eliane, M.; Rowland, L.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Meir, P.

    2014-12-01

    In many dynamic vegetation models, degradation of the tropical forests is induced because they assume that productivity falls rapidly when temperatures rise in the region of 30-40°C. Apart plant respiration, this is due to the assumptions on the temperature optima of photosynthetic capacity, which are low and can differ widely between models, where in fact hardly any empirical information is available for tropical forests. Even less is known about the possibility that photosynthesis will acclimate to changing temperatures. The objective of this study to is to provide better estimates for optima, as well as to determine whether any acclimation to temperature change is to be expected. We present both new and hitherto unpublished data on the temperature response of photosynthesis of Amazon rainforest trees, encompassing three sites, several species and five field campaigns. Leaf photosynthesis and its parameters were determined at a range of temperatures. To study the long-term (seasonal) acclimation of this response, this was combined with an artificial, in situ, multi-season leaf heating experiment. The data show that, on average for all non-heated cases, the photosynthetic parameter Vcmax weakly peaks between 35 and 40 ˚C, while heating does not have a clearly significant effect. Results for Jmax are slightly different, with sharper peaks. Scatter was relatively high, which could indicate weak overall temperature dependence. The combined results were used to fit new parameters to the various temperature response curve functions in a range of DGVMs. The figure shows a typical example: while the default Jules model assumes a temperature optimum for Vcmax at around 33 ˚C, the data suggest that Vcmax keeps rising up to at least 40 ˚C. Of course, calculated photosynthesis, obtained by applying this Vcmax in the Farquhar model, peaks at lower temperature. Finally, the implication of these new model parameters for modelled climate change impact on modelled Amazon

  6. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  7. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  8. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  9. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  10. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...

  11. Effects of spatial pattern of green space on land surface temperature: implications for sustainable urban planning and climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maimaitiyiming, M.; Ghulam, A.

    2013-12-01

    The urban heat island (UHI) refers to the phenomenon of higher atmospheric and surface temperatures occurring in urban areas than in the surrounding rural areas. Numerous studies have shown that increased percent cover of green space (PLAND) can significantly decrease land surface temperatures (LST). Fewer studies, however, have investigated the effects of configuration of green space on LST. This paper aims at to fill this gap using oasis city Aksu in northwestern China as a case study. PLAND along with two configuration metrics are used to measure the composition and configuration of green space. The metrics are calculated by moving window method based on a green space map derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, and LST data are retrieved from Landsat TM thermal band. Normalized mutual information measure is employed to investigate the relationship between LST and the spatial pattern of green space. The results show that while the PLAND is the most important variable that elicits LST dynamics, spatial configuration of green space also has significant effect on LST. In addition, the variance of LST is largely explained by both composition and configuration of green space. Results from this study can expand our understanding of the relationship between LST and vegetation, and provide insights for sustainable urban planning and management under changing climate.

  12. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanchan Joshi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  13. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  14. Permafrost in steep bedrock slopes and its temperature-related destabilization following climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, S.; Haeberli, W.

    2007-06-01

    Permafrost in steep bedrock is abundant in many cold-mountain areas, and its degradation can cause slope instability that is unexpected and unprecedented in location, magnitude, frequency, and timing. These phenomena bear consequences for the understanding of landscape evolution, natural hazards, and the safe and sustainable operation of high-mountain infrastructure. Permafrost in steep bedrock is an emerging field of research. Knowledge of rock temperatures, ice content, mechanisms of degradation, and the processes that link warming and destabilization is often fragmental. In this article we provide a review and discussion of existing literature and pinpoint important questions. Ice-filled joints are common in bedrock permafrost and possibly actively widened by ice segregation. Broad evidence of destabilization by warming permafrost exists despite problems of attributing individual events to this phenomenon with certainty. Convex topography such as ridges, spurs, and peaks is often subject to faster and deeper thaw than other areas. Permafrost degradation in steep bedrock can be strongly affected by percolating water in fractures. This degradation by advection is difficult to predict and can lead to quick and deep development of thaw corridors along fractures in permafrost and potentially destabilize much greater volumes of rock than conduction would. Although most research on steep bedrock permafrost originates from the Alps, it will likely gain importance in other geographic regions with mountain permafrost.

  15. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  16. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  17. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  18. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pančić

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1 and different temperatures (1, 5 and 8 °C to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by ∼20–50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20–37% compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.

  19. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  20. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  1. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  2. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  3. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  4. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  5. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  6. Challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husaini, Amjad M

    2014-01-01

    Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

  7. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  8. The ACPI Climate Change Simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Parallel Climate Model (PCM) has been used in the Accelerated Climate Prediction Initiative (ACPI) Program to simulate the global climate response to projected CO2, sulfate, and other greenhouse gas forcing under a business-as-usual emissions scenario during the 21st century. In these runs, the oceans were initialized to 1995 conditions by a group from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and other institutions. An ensemble of three model runs was then carried out to the year 2099 using the projected forcing. Atmospheric data from these runs were saved at 6-hourly intervals (hourly for certain critical fields) to support the ACPI objective of accurately modeling hydrological cycles over the western U.S. It is shown that the initialization to 1995 conditions partly removes the un-forced oceanic temperature and salinity drifts that occurred in the standard 20th century integration. The ACPI runs show a global surface temperature increase of 3-8C over northern high-latitudes by the end of the 21st century, and 1-2C over the oceans. This is generally within ±0.1C of model runs without the 1995 ocean initialization. The exception is in the Antarctic circumpolar ocean where surface air temperature is cooler in the ACPI run; however the ensemble scatter is large in this region. Although the difference in climate at the end of the 21st century is minimal between the ACPI runs and traditionally spun up runs, it might be larger for CGCMs with higher climate sensitivity or larger ocean drifts. Our results suggest that the effect of small errors in the oceans (such as those associated with climate drifts) on CGCM-simulated climate changes for the next 50-100 years may be negligible

  9. Mental health effects of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Susanta Kumar Padhy; Sidharth Sarkar; Mahima Panigrahi; Surender Paul

    2015-01-01

    We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more numb...

  10. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  11. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  12. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  13. Elevated temperature is more effective than elevated [CO2 ] in exposing genotypic variation in Telopea speciosissima growth plasticity: implications for woody plant populations under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Guomin; Rymer, Paul D; Duan, Honglang; Smith, Renee A; Tissue, David T

    2015-10-01

    Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] (CE ) and elevated temperature (TE ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima. Both genotypes were positively responsive to CE (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to TE . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to TE (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under CE or TE , and the interactive effects of CE and TE on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, TE was a more effective climate factor than CE in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes.

  14. River Restoration for a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beechie, T. J.; Pollock, M. M.; Pess, G. R.; Roni, P.

    2012-12-01

    Future climate scenarios suggest that riverine habitats will be significantly altered in the next few decades, forcing managers to ask whether and how river restoration activities should be altered to accommodate climate change. Obvious questions include: Will climate change alter river flow and temperature enough to reduce action effectiveness? What types of restoration actions are more likely to remain effective in a climate altered future? To help address these questions, we reviewed literature on habitat restoration actions and river processes to determine the degree to which different restoration actions are likely to either ameliorate a climate effect or increase habitat diversity and resilience. Key findings are that restoring floodplain connectivity and re-aggrading incised channels ameliorate both stream flow and temperature changes and increase lateral connectivity, whereas restoring in-stream flows can ameliorate decreases in low flows as well as stream temperature increases. Other restoration actions (e.g., reducing sediment supply, in-stream rehabilitation) are much less likely to ameliorate climate change effects. In general, actions that restore watershed and ecosystem processes are most likely to be robust to climate change effects because they allow river channels and riverine ecosystems to evolve in response to shifting stream flow and temperature regimes. We offer a decision support process to illustrate how to evaluate whether a project design should be altered to accommodate climate change effects, and show examples of restoration actions that are likely to be resilient to a changing climate.

  15. Sustain : the climate change challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This special report on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions focused on widely held current opinions which indicate that average global surface temperatures are increasing. The potential consequences of climate change can include rising sea levels, drought storms, disease, and mass migration of people. While the global climate change theory is widely accepted, the report warns that there are still many uncertainties about how climate change occurs and what processes can offset human-caused emissions. Canada produces about 2 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide comprises 80 per cent of Canada's total emissions. It is well known that Canadians place a heavy demand on energy to heat and light their homes because of the northern climate, and on transportation fuels to move people, goods and services across vast distances. With the Kyoto Protocol of December 1997, developed countries agreed to legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least five per cent by 2008 to 2012. Canada agreed to a six per cent reduction below 1990 levels by 2010. Although Canada signed the Kyoto Protocol, it does not intend to ratify it until an implementation strategy has been developed with broad support. The goal is to develop a strategy by 1999. The oil and gas industry has in general improved its efficiency and reduced emissions on a per unit of production basis by installing new equipment and new operating practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, and improve energy efficiency. The industry is conscious of its responsibility, and while not fully in agreement with the environmental doomsayers, it is prepared to take proactive actions now, albeit on a voluntary basis. What the industry wants is a balance between environmental and economic responsibility. Emissions trading' and 'joint implementation' are seen as two important tools to tackle climate change on a global basis. 4 figs

  16. Outchasing climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

  17. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  18. 1000 years of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, C.

    Solar activity has been observed to vary on decadal and centennial time scales. Recent evidence (Bond, 2002) points to a major semi-periodic variation of approximately 1,500 yrs. For this reason, and because high resolution proxy records are limited to the past thousand years or so, assessing the role of the sun's variability on climate change over this time f ame has received much attention. A pressingr application of these assessments is the attempt to separate the role of the sun from that of various anthropogenic forcings in the past century and a half. This separation is complicated by the possible existence of natural variability other than solar, and by the fact that the time-dependence of solar and anthropogenic forcings is very similar over the past hundred years or so. It has been generally assumed that solar forcing is direct, i.e. changes in sun's irradiance. However, evidence has been put forth suggesting that there exist various additional indirect forcings that could be as large as or even exceed direct forcing (modulation of cosmic ray - induced cloudiness, UV- induced stratospheric ozone change s, or oscillator -driven changes in the Pacific Ocean). Were such forcings to be large, they could account for nearly all 20th Century warming, relegating anthropogenic effects to a minor role. Determination of climate change over the last thousand years offers perhaps the best way to assess the magnitude of total solar forcing, thus allowing its comparison with that of anthropogenic sources. Perhaps the best proxy records for climate variation in the past 1,000 yrs have been variations in temperat ure sensitive tree rings (Briffa and Osborne, 2002). A paucity of such records in the Southern Hemisphere has largely limited climate change determinations to the subtropical NH. Two problems with tree rings are that the rings respond to temperature differently with the age of the tree, and record largely the warm, growing season only. It appears that both these

  19. An Astronomer's View of Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Morton, Donald C

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes some of the astronomical effects that could be important for understanding the ice ages, historic climate changes and the recent temperature increase. These include changes in the sun's luminosity, periodic changes in the earth's orbital parameters, the sun's orbit around our galaxy, the variability of solar activity and the anticorrelation of cosmic ray flux with that activity. Finally recent trends in solar activity and global temperatures are compared with the predictions of climate models.

  20. Assessment of projected temperature impacts from climate change on the U.S. electric power sector using the Integrated Planning Model®

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study analyzes the potential impacts of changes in temperature due to climate change on the U.S. power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes due to temperature changes under two emissions trajectories—with and without emissions mitigation. It estimates the impact of temperature change on heating and cooling degree days, electricity demand, and generating unit output and efficiency. These effects are then integrated into a dispatch and capacity planning model to estimate impacts on investment decisions, emissions, system costs, and power prices for 32 U.S. regions. Without mitigation actions, total annual electricity production costs in 2050 are projected to increase 14% ($51 billion) because of greater cooling demand as compared to a control scenario without future temperature changes. For a scenario with global emissions mitigation, including a reduction in U.S. power sector emissions of 36% below 2005 levels in 2050, the increase in total annual electricity production costs is approximately the same as the increase in system costs to satisfy the increased demand associated with unmitigated rising temperatures. - Highlights: • We model the impact of rising temperatures on the U.S. power sector. • We examine temperature and mitigation impacts on demand, supply, and investment. • Higher temperatures increase power system costs by about $50 billion by the year 2050. • Meeting demand from higher temperatures costs slightly more than reducing emissions. • Mitigation policy cost analyses should account for temperature impacts

  1. European climate change policy beyond 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    There is an increasing scientific consensus that human activities do trigger climate changes. Actual forecasts predict temperature increases that are likely to be beyond the adaptation potential of ecosystems. These considerations play a major role in shaping public opinion and the media landscape, culminating in the view that Europe needs to play a leading role in combating climate change.

  2. Climate change science - beyond IPCC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The main conclusions of the IPCC Working Group I assessment of the physical science of climate change, from the Fourth IPCC Assessment, will be presented, along with the evidence supporting these conclusions. These conclusions include: Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased markedly as a result of human activities since 1750 and now far exceed pre-industrial values determined from ice cores spanning many thousands of years. The global increases in carbon dioxide concentration are due primarily to fossil fuel use and land use change, while those of methane and nitrous oxide are primarily due to agriculture; The understanding of anthropogenic warming and cooling influences on climate has improved since the Third Assessment Report, leading to very high confidence that the global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming, with a radiative forcing of +1.6 [+0.6 to +2.4] Wm-2; Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level; At continental, regional and ocean basin scales, numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed. These include changes in arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. Palaeo-climatic information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half-century is unusual in at least the previous 1,300 years; Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations; Discernible human influences now extend to other aspects of climate, including ocean warming, continental

  3. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  4. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  5. Scientific aspects of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For the last 35 years, the average temperature of the planet has been steadily increasing- Are the greenhouse gases emitted by human beings the cause? What will the consequences be? What can we do? The fourth report of the intergovernmental Panel on Climate change tries to answer these questions. There are clear signs of thawing that primary affect Greenland and the Antarctic, but there are still many doubts what the consequences will be throughout the century. In any case, it seems obvious that, if greenhouse gas emissions are not substantially reduced very soon, the rising temperature trend and its associated consequences will persist beyond the 21st century. (Author)

  6. Climate change: where is the hockey stick? evidence from millennial-scale reconstructed and updated temperature time series.

    OpenAIRE

    Travaglini, Guido

    2011-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to test on a millennial scale the magnitude of the recent warmth period, known as the “hockey-stick”, and the relevance of the causative anthropogenic climate change hypothesis advanced by several academics and worldwide institutions. A select batch of ten long-term climate proxies, included in the NOAA 92 PCN dataset all of which running well into the nineties, is updated to the year 2011 by means of a Time-Varying Parameter Kalman Filter SISO model for state predic...

  7. Road Infrastructure and Climate Change in Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul S. Chinowsky

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a potential threat to Vietnam’s development as current and future infrastructure will be vulnerable to climate change impacts. This paper focuses on the physical asset of road infrastructure in Vietnam by evaluating the potential impact of changes from stressors, including: sea level rise, precipitation, temperature and flooding. Across 56 climate scenarios, the mean additional cost of maintaining the same road network through 2050 amount to US$10.5 billion. The potential scale of these impacts establishes climate change adaptation as an important component of planning and policy in the current and near future.

  8. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  9. Climate change or land use dynamics: do we know what climate change indicators indicate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel Clavero

    Full Text Available Different components of global change can have interacting effects on biodiversity and this may influence our ability to detect the specific consequences of climate change through biodiversity indicators. Here, we analyze whether climate change indicators can be affected by land use dynamics that are not directly determined by climate change. To this aim, we analyzed three community-level indicators of climate change impacts that are based on the optimal thermal environment and average latitude of the distribution of bird species present at local communities. We used multiple regression models to relate the variation in climate change indicators to: i environmental temperature; and ii three landscape gradients reflecting important current land use change processes (land abandonment, fire impacts and urbanization, all of them having forest areas at their positive extremes. We found that, with few exceptions, landscape gradients determined the figures of climate change indicators as strongly as temperature. Bird communities in forest habitats had colder-dwelling bird species with more northern distributions than farmland, burnt or urban areas. Our results show that land use changes can reverse, hide or exacerbate our perception of climate change impacts when measured through community-level climate change indicators. We stress the need of an explicit incorporation of the interactions between climate change and land use dynamics to understand what are current climate change indicators indicating and be able to isolate real climate change impacts.

  10. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  11. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  12. Shallow groundwater thermal sensitivity to climate change and land cover disturbances: derivation of analytical expressions and implications for stream temperature projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. L. Kurylyk

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to increase stream temperatures, and the projected warming may alter the spatial extent of habitat for coldwater fish and other aquatic taxa. Recent studies have proposed that stream thermal sensitivities, derived from short term air temperature variations, can be employed to infer future stream warming due to long term climate change. However, this approach does not consider the potential for streambed heat fluxes to increase due to gradual warming of shallow groundwater. The temperature of shallow groundwater is particularly important for the thermal regimes of groundwater-dominated streams and rivers. Also, other recent stream temperature studies have investigated how land surface perturbations, such as wildfires or timber harvesting, can influence stream temperatures by changing surface heat fluxes, but these studies have typically not considered how these surface disturbances can also alter shallow groundwater temperatures and consequent streambed heat fluxes. In this study, several analytical solutions to the one-dimensional unsteady advection–diffusion equation for subsurface heat transport are employed to investigate the timing and magnitude of groundwater warming due to seasonal and long term variability in land surface temperatures. Novel groundwater thermal sensitivity formulae are proposed that accommodate different surface warming scenarios. The thermal sensitivity formulae demonstrate that shallow groundwater will warm in response to climate change and other surface perturbations, but the timing and magnitude of the warming depends on the rate of surface warming, subsurface thermal properties, aquifer depth, and groundwater velocity. The results also emphasize the difference between the thermal sensitivity of shallow groundwater to short term (e.g. seasonal and long term (e.g. multi-decadal land surface temperature variability, and thus demonstrate the limitations of using short term air and water

  13. Climate Change Effects Overwintering of Insects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vukasinovic, Dragana

    Climate change is modifying winter conditions rapidly and predicting species’ reactions to global warming has been the “the holy grail” of climate sciences, especially for managed systems, like agro-ecosystems. Intuitively, increased winter temperatures should release insects from coldinduced...... of a rapid, contemporary evolution, optimal formeasuring species response under constant selection pressure, including organismal physiology.Thus, the methodological approach applied in this study, could prove a valuable tool for improving predictability of field population dynamics during climate change....

  14. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahdoot, Samantha; Pacheco, Susan E

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperature is causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes across the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as climate change, are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security. Children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters, increased heat stress, decreased air quality, altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections, and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. Prompt implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies will protect children against worsening of the problem and its associated health effects. This technical report reviews the nature of climate change and its associated child health effects and supports the recommendations in the accompanying policy statement on climate change and children's health. PMID:26504134

  15. Signs of climate change in Nordic nature

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, Maria; Jensen, Trine Susanne; Normander, Bo;

    a catalogue of 14 indicator-based signs that demonstrate the impact of climate change on terrestrial, marine and freshwater ecosystems in the different bio-geographical zones of the Nordic region. The indicators have been identified using a systematic and quality, criteria based approach to discern and select...... on population size and range of the polar bear, for example, are scarce, whereas data on the pollen season are extensive. Each indicator is evaluated using a number of quality criteria, including sensitivity to climate change, policy relevance and methodology. Although the indicator framework presented here has......Not only is the Earth's climate changing, our natural world is also being affected by the impact of rising temperatures and changes in climatic conditions. In order to track climate-related changes in Nordic ecosystems, we have identified a number of climate change sensitive indicators. We present...

  16. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  17. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  18. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  19. Applied climate-change analysis: the climate wizard tool.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan H Girvetz

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Although the message of "global climate change" is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To demonstrate the Climate Wizard, we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951-2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January-April, but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year, sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50 degrees N during February-March to 10 degrees N during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0-20 degrees N, and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly, a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs for 2070-2099 identified the median projected change within countries, which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but at the same time, they provide examples of how Climate Wizard can be used to explore regionally- and temporally

  20. Changes in C-N metabolism under elevated CO2 and temperature in Indian mustard (Brassica juncea L.): an adaptation strategy under climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth, Chandra Shekhar; Misra, Virendra

    2014-11-01

    The present study was performed to investigate the possible role of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) metabolism in adaptation of Indian mustard (Brassica juncea L.) growing under ambient (370 ± 15 ppm) and elevated CO2 (700 ± 15 ppm), and jointly in elevated CO2 and temperature (30/22 °C for day/night). The key enzymes responsible for C-N metabolism were studied in different samples of Brassica juncea L. collected from ambient (AMB), elevated (ELE) and ELExT growth conditions. Total percent amount of C and N in leaves were particularly estimated to establish a clear understanding of aforesaid metabolism in plant adaptation. Furthermore, key morphological and physiological parameters such as plant height, leaf area index, dry biomass, net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration, total protein and chlorophyll contents were also studied in relation to C/N metabolism. The results indicated that the C-metabolizing enzymes, such as (ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase, malate dehydrogenase, NAD-malic enzyme, NADP-malic enzyme and citrate synthase) and the N-metabolizing enzymes, such as (aspartate amino transferase, glutamine synthetase, nitrate reductase and nitrite reductase) showed significantly (P ELExT > AMB growth conditions. This is also evident by significant (P adaptation in Brassica juncea L. against elevated CO2 and temperature prevailing in climate change scenarios.

  1. Role of Low Frequency Sea Surface Temperature Modes with a Changing Climate in Modulating Atlantic Hurricane Activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaRow, Timothy [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2014-08-03

    The SSTs used in our study come from the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) (Gent et al 2011) and from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CanESM2) (Chylek et al20ll) climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al2012). We've examined the tropical cyclones using both the historical simulation that employs volcanic and aerosol forcing as well as the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). In addition, we've compared the present day North Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics from a previous study (LaRow, 2013) to these climate change experiments. The experimental setup is shown in Table 1. We considered the CMIP5 experiment number '3.2 historical' (Taylor et al,201l), which provides simulations of the recent past (1850-2005). The second set of CMIP5 SSTs is the RCp4.5 experiment where the radiative forcing stabilizes at 45W m-2 after 2100 (experiment number 4.1 in Taylor etal2}ll).

  2. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  3. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  4. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natura...

  5. Climate Reconstructions of the Younger Dryas: An ELA Model Investigating Variability in ELA Depressions, Temperature, and Precipitation Changes for the Graubϋnden Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, D. G.; Rupper, S.; Schaefer, J. M.; Finkel, R. C.

    2015-12-01

    The high sensitivity of mountain glaciers to even small perturbations in climate, combined with a near global distribution, make alpine glaciers an important target for terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions. The geomorphic remnant of past glaciers can yield important insights into past climate, particularly in regions where other methods of reconstruction are not possible. The quantitative conversion of these changes in geomorphology to a climate signal, however, presents a significant challenge. A particular need exists for a versatile climate reconstruction method applicable to diverse glacierized regions around the globe. Because the glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) provides a more explicit comparison of climate than properties such as glacier length or area, ELA methods lend themselves well to such a need, and allow for a more direct investigation of the primary drivers of mountain glaciations during specific events. Here, we present an ELA model for quantifying changes in climate based on changes in glacier extent, while accounting for differences in glacier width, glacier shape, bed topography, ice thickness, and glacier length. The model furthermore provides bounds on the ΔELA using Monte Carlo simulations. These methods are validated using published mass balances and ELA measurements from 4 modern glaciers in the European Alps. We then use this ELA model, combined with a surface mass and energy balance model, to estimate the changes in temperature/precipitation between the Younger Dryas (constrained by 10Be surface exposure ages) and the present day for three glacier systems in the Graubϋnden Alps. Our results indicate an ELA depression in this area of 257 m ±45 m during the Younger Dryas (YD) relative to today. This corresponds to a 1.3 °C ±0.36 °C decrease in temperature or a 156% ±30% increase in precipitation relative to today. These results indicate the likelihood of a predominantly temperature-driven change rather than a strong

  6. Undocumented migration in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

    2016-01-01

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986–1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

  7. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  8. Climate change, environment and allergy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrendt, Heidrun; Ring, Johannes

    2012-01-01

    Climate change with global warming is a physicometeorological fact that, among other aspects, will also affect human health. Apart from cardiovascular and infectious diseases, allergies seem to be at the forefront of the sequelae of climate change. By increasing temperature and concomitant increased CO(2) concentration, plant growth is affected in various ways leading to prolonged pollination periods in the northern hemisphere, as well as to the appearance of neophytes with allergenic properties, e.g. Ambrosia artemisiifolia (ragweed), in Central Europe. Because of the effects of environmental pollutants, which do not only act as irritants to skin and mucous membranes, allergen carriers such as pollen can be altered in the atmosphere and release allergens leading to allergen-containing aerosols in the ambient air. Pollen has been shown not only to be an allergen carrier, but also to release highly active lipid mediators (pollen-associated lipid mediators), which have proinflammatory and immunomodulating effects enhancing the initiation of allergy. Through the effects of climate change in the future, plant growth may be influenced in a way that more, new and altered pollens are produced, which may affect humans. PMID:22433365

  9. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  10. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  11. Five-years of microenvironment data along an urban-rural transect; temperature and CO2 concentrations in urban area at levels expected globally with climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, Kate; Ziska, Lewis H; Bunce, James A; Quebedeaux, Bruno

    2007-11-01

    The heat island effect and the high use of fossil fuels in large city centers is well documented, but by how much fossil fuel consumption is elevating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and whether elevations in both atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are consistent from year to year are less well known. Our aim was to record atmospheric CO2 concentrations, air temperature and other environmental variables in an urban area and compare it to suburban and rural sites to see if urban sites are experiencing climates expected globally in the future with climate change. A transect was established from Baltimore city center (Urban site), to the outer suburbs of Baltimore (suburban site) and out to an organic farm (rural site). At each site a weather station was set-up to monitor environmental variables annually for five years. Atmospheric CO2 was significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the five years of the study. Air temperature was significantly higher at the urban site (14.8 oC) compared to the suburban (13.6 oC) and rural (12.7 oC) sites. Relative humidity was not different between sites but vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was significantly higher at the urban site compared to the suburban and rural sites. During wet years relative humidity was significantly increased and VPD significantly reduced. Increased nitrogen deposition at the rural site (2.1 % compared to 1.8 and 1.2 % at the suburban and urban sites) was small enough not to affect soil nitrogen content. Dense urban areas with large populations and high vehicular traffic have significantly different microclimates compared to outlying suburban and rural areas. The increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change, therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  12. Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

    2014-01-01

    , precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies......Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now....... Congruent results of meta-analyses based on warming experiments, however, do not reflect a better general understanding of temperature effects, because the potential effects of more complex changes in temperature, including extreme events, are not yet covered well. Heat, frost, seasonality, and spatial...

  13. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought o...

  14. Uncertain outcomes and climate change policy

    OpenAIRE

    Robert S. Pindyck

    2011-01-01

    Focusing on tail effects, I incorporate distributions for temperature change and its economic impact in an analysis of climate change policy. I estimate the fraction of consumption w*(tau) that society would be willing to sacrifice to ensure that any increase in temperature at a future point is limited to tau. Using information on the distributions for temperature change and economic impact from studies assembled by the IPCC and from "integrated assessment models" (IAMs), I fit displaced gamm...

  15. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah, L.; Roehrdanz, PR; Ikegami, M; Shepard, AV; Shaw; Tabor, G; Zhi, L; Marquet, PA; Hijmans, RJ

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticul...

  16. Climate change and catchment hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Conor

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter catchment hydrology through changes in extremes of flooding and drought. River catchments are complex, dynamic systems and it is important to develop our understanding of how these systems are likely to respond to changes in climate. Work is ongoing in using EC-Earth simulations to further our understanding of how climate change will affect catchment hydrology and flood risk. In Ireland, the importance of this task is emphasised ...

  17. Global climate change : greenhouse effect

    OpenAIRE

    Attard, David

    1992-01-01

    One of the main problems caused by climate change is the greenhouse effect. Human activities emit so-called greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, such as carbon dioxide which is produced through fossil fuel burning. These gases absorb the earth‘s radiation, forcing the earth‘s temperature, like that of in greenhouse, to rise. Global warming would lead to a rise in the global mean sea-level due to thermal expansion of the waters, and glaciers will melt at a fast rate, as will the Greenland ice...

  18. Multinational enterprises and climate change strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is often perceived as the most pressing environmental problem of our time, as reflected in the large public, policy, and corporate attention it has received, and the concerns expressed about the (potential) consequences. Particularly due to temperature increases, climate change affects physical and biological systems by changing ecosystems and causing extinction of species, and is expected to have a negative social impact and adversely affect human health (IPCC, 2007). Moreover...

  19. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  20. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  1. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith;

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  2. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  3. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  4. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  5. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  6. Combined effect of temperature and copper pollution on soil bacterial community: climate change and regional variation aspects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henriques, Isabel; Araújo, Susana; Pereira, Anabela; Menezes-Oliveira, Vanessa B; Correia, António; Soares, Amadeu M V M; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; Amorim, Mónica J B

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the combined effects of temperature and copper (Cu) contamination in the structure of soil bacterial community. For this, contaminated or spiked and control soils from two different geographic origins (PT-Portugal and DK-Denmark) were used. The DK soil was from a historically contaminated study field, representing a long-term exposure to Cu while the PT soil was from a clean site and freshly spiked with Cu. Soil bacterial communities were exposed in mesocosms during 84 days to 3 different temperatures based on values typically found in each geographic region and temperature conditions that simulated a warming scenario. Obtained results indicate that Cu stress alters the structure of bacterial community and that this effect is, to some extent, temperature-dependent. Effects on bacterial diversity for both soils were also observed. Differences in the DK and PT communities' response were apparent, with the community from the historically contaminated soil being more resilient to temperature fluctuations. This study presents evidence to support the hypothesis that temperature alters the effect of metals on soils. Further, our results suggest that the definition of soils quality criteria must be based on studies performed under temperatures selected for the specific geographic region. Studies taking into account temperature changes are needed to model and predict risks, this is important to e.g. future adjustments of the maximum permissible levels for soil metal contamination.

  7. Urban Growth and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2008-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2030, the share of the world's population that lives in cities is predicted to grow from 30% to 60%. This urbanization has consequences for the likelihood of climate change and for the social costs that climate change will impose on the world's quality of life. This paper examines how urbanization affects greenhouse gas production, and it studies how urbanites in the developed and developing world will adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

  8. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  9. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  10. Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ferschweiler, Ken; Hobbins, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

  11. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  12. Climate change - a natural hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kininmonth, William

    2003-07-01

    The impacts of weather and climate extremes (floods, storms, drought, etc) have historically set back development and will continue to do so into the future, especially in developing countries. It is essential to understand how future climate change will be manifest as weather and climate extremes in order to implement policies of sustainable development. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that natural processes have caused the climate to change and it is unlikely that human influences will dominate the natural processes. Any suggestion that implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will avoid future infrastructure damage, environmental degradation and loss of life from weather and climate extremes is a grand delusion. (Author)

  13. Untangling the Impacts of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: a Systematic Review of Relationships between Diarrheal Diseases and Temperature, Rainfall, Flooding, and Drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Karen; Woster, Andrew P; Goldstein, Rebecca S; Carlton, Elizabeth J

    2016-05-17

    Global climate change is expected to affect waterborne enteric diseases, yet to date there has been no comprehensive, systematic review of the epidemiological literature examining the relationship between meteorological conditions and diarrheal diseases. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Collection for studies describing the relationship between diarrheal diseases and four meteorological conditions that are expected to increase with climate change: ambient temperature, heavy rainfall, drought, and flooding. We synthesized key areas of agreement and evaluated the biological plausibility of these findings, drawing from a diverse, multidisciplinary evidence base. We identified 141 articles that met our inclusion criteria. Key areas of agreement include a positive association between ambient temperature and diarrheal diseases, with the exception of viral diarrhea and an increase in diarrheal disease following heavy rainfall and flooding events. Insufficient evidence was available to evaluate the effects of drought on diarrhea. There is evidence to support the biological plausibility of these associations, but publication bias is an ongoing concern. Future research evaluating whether interventions, such as improved water and sanitation access, modify risk would further our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on diarrheal diseases and aid in the prioritization of adaptation measures. PMID:27058059

  14. Untangling the Impacts of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: a Systematic Review of Relationships between Diarrheal Diseases and Temperature, Rainfall, Flooding, and Drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Karen; Woster, Andrew P; Goldstein, Rebecca S; Carlton, Elizabeth J

    2016-05-17

    Global climate change is expected to affect waterborne enteric diseases, yet to date there has been no comprehensive, systematic review of the epidemiological literature examining the relationship between meteorological conditions and diarrheal diseases. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Collection for studies describing the relationship between diarrheal diseases and four meteorological conditions that are expected to increase with climate change: ambient temperature, heavy rainfall, drought, and flooding. We synthesized key areas of agreement and evaluated the biological plausibility of these findings, drawing from a diverse, multidisciplinary evidence base. We identified 141 articles that met our inclusion criteria. Key areas of agreement include a positive association between ambient temperature and diarrheal diseases, with the exception of viral diarrhea and an increase in diarrheal disease following heavy rainfall and flooding events. Insufficient evidence was available to evaluate the effects of drought on diarrhea. There is evidence to support the biological plausibility of these associations, but publication bias is an ongoing concern. Future research evaluating whether interventions, such as improved water and sanitation access, modify risk would further our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on diarrheal diseases and aid in the prioritization of adaptation measures.

  15. Climate impacts of deforestation/land-use changes in Central South America in the PRECIS regional climate model: mean precipitation and temperature response to present and future deforestation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canziani, Pablo O; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961-2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960-2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

  16. Climate Impacts of Deforestation/Land-Use Changes in Central South America in the PRECIS Regional Climate Model: Mean Precipitation and Temperature Response to Present and Future Deforestation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo O. Canziani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs, potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960–2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

  17. Climate impacts of deforestation/land-use changes in Central South America in the PRECIS regional climate model: mean precipitation and temperature response to present and future deforestation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canziani, Pablo O; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961-2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960-2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia. PMID:22645487

  18. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  19. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  20. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-03-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  1. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  2. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  3. The Poverty Impact of Climate Change in Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    de la Fuente, Alejandro; Olivera Villarroel, Marcelo

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the effects of climate change on poverty through the relationship between indicators of climate change (temperature and rainfall change) and municipal level gross domestic product, and subsequently between gross domestic product and poverty. The evidence suggests that climate change could have a negative impact on poverty by 2030. The paper proposes a two-stage least sq...

  4. Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, Gregg; Jacobs, Katharine; Buizer, James

    2008-06-01

    Climate Change Adaptation for Water Managers; Oracle, Arizona, 4-5 February 2008; The most visible manifestation of climate change in the American Southwest is its effects on water resources. Since 1999, the region's water supplies and major rivers have been tested by burgeoning population growth and drought. Model projections suggest increasing drought severity and duration due to rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and enhanced atmospheric circulation from the tropics (Hadley circulation).

  5. Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, Robert S.

    2013-01-01

    Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period

  6. Lay representations on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Lázaro, Alexandra; Carvalho, Anabela

    2006-01-01

    Lay representations on climate change were mapped via the free-word association method in two pilot studies. Participants were asked to generate words associated to “the big problems faced by humankind nowadays” (1st study) and to “climate change” (2nd study). Climate change was not spontaneously evoked by the participants in the first study: pollution was among the top 10 problems, but references to other environmental issues were very low. In the second study, climate change was consid...

  7. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  8. The International Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Farhana; Depledge, Joanna

    2005-01-01

    Aimed at the increasing number of policy-makers, stakeholders, researchers, and other professionals working on climate change, this volume presents a detailed description and analysis of the international regime established in 1992 to combat the threat of global climate change. It provides a comprehensive accessible guide to a high-profile area of international law and politics, covering not only the obligations and rights of countries, but ongoing climate negotiations as well.

  9. Ground water and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Richard G; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the...

  10. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  11. Influence of winter temperature and simulated climate change on body mass and fat body depletion during diapause in adults of the solitary bee, Osmia rufa (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fliszkiewicz, Monika; Giejdasz, Karol; Wasielewski, Oskar; Krishnan, Natraj

    2012-12-01

    The influence of simulated climate change on body weight and depletion of fat body reserves was studied during diapause in the European solitary bee Osmia rufa L. (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae). Insects (females) were reared and collected from outdoor nests from September to March. One cohort of females was weighed and dissected immediately for analyses, whereas another cohort was subjected to simulated warmer temperature (15°C for 7 d) before analyses. A gradual decline in body mass and fat body content was recorded with declining temperatures from September to January in female bees from natural conditions. Temperature increased gradually from January to March with a further decline in body mass and fat body content. The fat body development index dropped from five in September-October (≈ 89% individuals) to four for the period from November to February (≈ 84% individuals) and further to three in March (95% individuals) before emergence. Simulated warmer winter temperature also resulted in a similar decline in body weight and fat body content; however, body weight and fat body content declined faster. The fat body development index dropped to three in December in the majority of individuals and continued at this level until March just before emergence. Taken together, our data indicate an earlier depletion of fat body reserves under simulated climate change conditions that may impact ovarian development and reproductive fitness in O. rufa. PMID:23321111

  12. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  13. Recent climate change in the Arabian Peninsula: Seasonal rainfall and temperature climatology of Saudi Arabia for 1979-2009

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Jones, P. D.; Athar, H.; Rahman, M. Ashfaqur

    2012-07-01

    Attempts are made to study the seasonal climatology of the Arabian Peninsula, including the regional to station level information for Saudi Arabia for the period 1979-2009. The wet (November to April) and dry (June to September) season rainfall and temperature climatology are obtained from various data sources, namely, surface observations, CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). These gridded datasets detect the dry zone over the Rub Al-Khali, the world's largest sand desert, during the wet season. In this season, large rain belts exist north of 30°N and south of 15°N. During the dry season, the Arabian Peninsula is almost entirely dry north of 15°N but rain belts exist below this latitudinal boundary. Irrespective of the season or dataset used, a relatively heavy-rain area is obtained for the southwest of the Peninsula. The wet (dry) season temperature is highest over the western (middle to the northern) parts of the Peninsula. Surface observations indicate that, irrespective of season, rainfall insignificantly increased in the first period (1979-1993), and then significantly decreased in the second period (1994-2009). The decrease rate is 35.1 mm (5.5 mm) per decade during the wet (dry) season. The temperature over Saudi Arabia has increased significantly, and the increase rate is faster (0.72 °C per decade) in the dry season compared to the wet season (0.51 °C per decade).

  14. Nuclear Energy and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Méritet, Sophie; Zaleski, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The paper will discuss the possibilities of the development of nuclear energy in the world in the midterm and long term. It will correlate the prospects with the emissions of CO2 and the effects on climate change. In particular it will discuss the problems nuclear energy face to make a large contribution of climate change issue.

  15. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  16. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  17. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  18. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  19. Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, Katy

    2008-01-01

    Equity emerged as the principal theme during the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) week session 'climate change, growth and poverty,' where presenters addressed the distributional consequences of climate change, as well as countries' unequal capacity to cope with the twin challenges of adaptation and mitigation. They highlighted actions to strengthen the global knowledge bas...

  20. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  1. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  2. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  3. Climate Change Influences on Antarctic Bird Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korczak-Abshire, Małgorzata

    2010-01-01

    Rapid changes in the major environmental variables like: temperature, wind and precipitation have occurred in the Antarctic region during the last 50 years. In this very sensitive region, even small changes can potentially lead to major environmental perturbations. Then the climate change poses a new challenge to the survival of Antarctic wildlife. As important bioindicators of changes in the ecosystem seabirds and their response to the climate perturbations have been recorded. Atmospheric warming and consequent changes in sea ice conditions have been hypothesized to differentially affect predator populations due to different predator life-history strategies and substantially altered krill recruitment dynamics.

  4. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Yi

    2014-11-24

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include

  5. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  6. Snow cover and land surface temperature assessment of Gangotri basin in the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) using MODIS satellite data for climate change inferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishna, Akhouri P.; Sharma, Anurag

    2013-10-01

    Climate change has become a cause of concern as well as the challenge of this century. Himalayan mountain ranges with high snow fields and numerous valley glaciers may bear the brunt of such changes already being reported including Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Gangotri is one of the most prominent snow-fed catchments of Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) due to origin of river Ganga situated within it. Spatio-temporal changes in snow covered area of this basin were examined for melting seasons of the years 2006 to 2010 and a latest reference year of 2012 as a special test case. Standard snow data products (MOD10A2) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-Terra sensor with spatial resolution of 500 m were used. For all the years of reference, snow covered area percentage was derived for respective months representing usual ablation or melting periods. Snow depletion curves (SDCs) were generated for such periods of the respective years. CARTOSAT digital elevation model (DEM) was used for topographic information of terrain. Relationship of SDCs with the land surface temperatures (LST) of the basin was worked upon using MODIS-Terra LST (MOD11A2) product (version 5) with 1 km resolution at 8-day interval for the day time temperature for respective months of above reference years. Thereafter, interpolation and simulation of snow covered areas was carried out on the basis of LST data. The study thus produced snow cover maps for the years of reference as well as their relationship with LST for climate change inferences.

  7. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  8. Climate change and agriculture: Mitigation and Adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neeteson, J.J.; Verhagen, A.

    2010-01-01

    Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere resulting in rising global temperatures and sea levels. Agriculture contributes significantly to climate change through the emission of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Continuation of th

  9. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  10. Irreversivle Climate Change Will Also Change Environmental Assessment and Management

    OpenAIRE

    Cairns, John

    2010-01-01

    Currently, the environmental and management methods for climate change will not be effective after irreversible climate change occurs. Without efforts to stabilize greenhouse gases, the temperature will continue to increase leading to: 1) risk to unique and threatened systems, 2) risk of extreme weather events, 3) distribution of impacts, 4) aggregate damages, and 5) risks of large-scaled discontinuities. New management systems must be put in place to protect natural capital and ecosystem se...

  11. Climate change and climate policy; Klimaendringer og klimapolitikk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done

  12. Climate change and avian influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Gilbert, Marius; Slingenbergh, Jan; Xiao, Xiangming

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in ...

  13. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Mixed Severity Fire Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Halofsky, Jessica; Peterson, Dave L.

    2009-01-01

    The frequency, severity, and extent of wildfire are strongly related to climate, and increasing temperatures with climate change will likely lead to changes in fire regimes in many types of ecosystems. Increased spring and summer temperatures with climate change will result in relatively early snowmelt, lower summer soil and fuel moisture, and longer fire seasons in the West. These conditions will lead to increased fire frequency and extent. Higher temperatures may also interact with vegetati...

  14. Chikungunya, climate change, and human rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meason, Braden; Paterson, Ryan

    2014-06-14

    Chikungunya is a re-emerging arbovirus that causes significant morbidity and some mortality. Global climate change leading to warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns allow mosquito vectors to thrive at altitudes and at locations where they previously have not, ultimately leading to a spread of mosquito-borne diseases. While mutations to the chikungunya virus are responsible for some portion of the re-emergence, chikungunya epidemiology is closely tied with weather patterns in Southeast Asia. Extrapolation of this regional pattern, combined with known climate factors impacting the spread of malaria and dengue, summate to a dark picture of climate change and the spread of this disease from south Asia and Africa into Europe and North America. This review describes chikungunya and collates current data regarding its spread in which climate change plays an important part. We also examine human rights obligations of States and others to protect against this disease.

  15. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  16. Potential effects of temperature on the benthic infaunal community on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf: Possible impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coyle, K. O.; Konar, B.; Blanchard, A.; Highsmith, R. C.; Carroll, J.; Carroll, M.; Denisenko, S. G.; Sirenko, B. I.

    2007-11-01

    In the late 1950s, Soviet researchers collected benthic infaunal samples from the southeastern Bering Sea shelf. Approximately 17 years later, researchers at University of Alaska Fairbanks also sampled the region to assess infaunal biomass and abundance. Here, the two data sets were examined to document patterns and reveal any consistent differences in infaunal biomass among major feeding groups between the two time periods. No significant differences in the geometric mean biomass of all taxa pooled were indicated between the two study periods (1958-1959=49.1 g m -2; 1975-1976=60.8 g m -2; P=0.14); however, significant differences were observed for specific functional groups, namely carnivores, omnivores and surface detritivores. Of the 64 families identified from both data sets from all functional groups, 21 showed statistically significant ( P⩽0.05) differences in mean biomass. Of the 21 families showing significant differences, 19 (91%) of the families had higher mean biomass in the 1975-1976 data set. The above differences suggest a trend toward higher overall infaunal biomass for specific functional groups during mid 1970s compared with the late 1950s. Temperature measurements and literature data indicate that the mid-1970s was an unusually cold period relative to the period before and after, suggesting a mechanistic link between temperature changes and infaunal biomass. Food-web relationships and ecosystem dynamics in the southeastern Bering Sea indicate that during cold periods, infaunal biomass will be elevated relative to warm periods due to elevated carbon flux to the benthos and exclusion of benthic predators on infaunal invertebrates by the cold bottom water on the shelf. As long-term observations of temperature and sea-ice cover indicate a secular warming trend on the Bering Sea shelf, the potential changes in food-web relationships could markedly alter trophic structure and energy flow to apex consumers, potentially impacting the commercial, tourist

  17. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  18. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J;

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  19. Ground water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food secu¬rity will probably intensify under climate chan...

  20. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit;

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  1. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  2. What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

    OpenAIRE

    Sutton, Rowan; Suckling, Emma; Hawkins, Ed

    2015-01-01

    The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of intere...

  3. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. CORNEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ecosystems, and human settlements are susceptible to variations in the storage, fluxes, and quality of water and sensitive to climate change. From urban and agricultural water supplies to flood management and aquatic ecosystem protection, global warming is affecting all aspects of water resource management. Rising temperatures, loss of snowpack, escalating size and frequency of flood events, and rising sea levels are just some of the impacts of climate change that have broad implications for the management of water resources. With robust scientific evidence showing that human-induced climate change is occurring, it is critical to understand how water quantity and quality might be affected. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the environmental risks caused by climate anomalies on water resources, to examine the negative impacts of a greenhouse warming on the supply and demand for water and the resulting socio-economic implications.

  4. Assessment of Projected Temperature Impacts from Climate Change on the U.S. Electric Power Sector Using the Integrated Planning Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The energy sector is considered to be one of the most vulnerable to climate change. This study is a first-order analysis of the potential climate change impacts on the U.S. electric power sector, measuring the energy, environmental, and economic impacts of power system changes du...

  5. The Liability of European States for Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Roger H J Cox

    2014-01-01

    According to climate science and the 195 signatory States to the UN Climate Convention, every emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases contributes to climate change. Furthermore, they hold that a two degree Celsius rise of Earth’s average temperature is to be considered as a dangerous climate change to mankind and all of the world’s ecosystems. Using the climate proceedings of Dutch citizens against the Dutch state as a starting point, the author of this case note explains why each European...

  6. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  7. Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E; Girvetz, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21st century.

  8. Female-Bias in a Long-Term Study of a Species with Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination: Monitoring Sex Ratios for Climate Change Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun McNeill, Joanne; Avens, Larisa; Goodman Hall, April; Goshe, Lisa R; Harms, Craig A; Owens, David W

    2016-01-01

    Alterations have occurred and continue to manifest in the Earth's biota as a result of climate change. Animals exhibiting temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), including sea turtles, are perhaps most vulnerable to a warming of the Earth as highly skewed sex ratios can result, potentially leading to population extinction resulting from decreased male recruitment. Recent studies have begun to quantify climate change impacts to sea turtle populations, especially in terms of predicting effects on hatchling sex ratios. However, given the inherent difficulty in studying sex ratios at this life stage, a more accurate assessment of changes in population sex ratios might be derived by evaluating the juvenile portion of foraging aggregations. We investigated the long-term trend in sex ratio of a juvenile loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle population inhabiting Pamlico and Core Sounds, North Carolina, USA. We used plasma testosterone reference ranges measured using radioimmunoassay (RIA) to assign sex for 959 turtles and confirmed sex assignment of a subset (N = 58) of the sampled turtles through laparoscopic examination of their gonads. Our results demonstrate that for this particular population of loggerheads, sex ratios (3Females:1Male) had not significantly changed over a 10 year period (1998-2007), nor showed any significant difference among 5-cm straight carapace length (SCL) size classes. Ultimately, these findings provide a basis for comparison with future sex ratios, and highlight the importance of establishing similar long-term studies monitoring secondary, rather than primary, sex ratios, so that needed mitigation measures to climate change impacts can be implemented. PMID:27579608

  9. Female-Bias in a Long-Term Study of a Species with Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination: Monitoring Sex Ratios for Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun McNeill, Joanne; Avens, Larisa; Goodman Hall, April; Goshe, Lisa R.; Harms, Craig A.; Owens, David W.

    2016-01-01

    Alterations have occurred and continue to manifest in the Earth’s biota as a result of climate change. Animals exhibiting temperature dependent sex determination (TSD), including sea turtles, are perhaps most vulnerable to a warming of the Earth as highly skewed sex ratios can result, potentially leading to population extinction resulting from decreased male recruitment. Recent studies have begun to quantify climate change impacts to sea turtle populations, especially in terms of predicting effects on hatchling sex ratios. However, given the inherent difficulty in studying sex ratios at this life stage, a more accurate assessment of changes in population sex ratios might be derived by evaluating the juvenile portion of foraging aggregations. We investigated the long-term trend in sex ratio of a juvenile loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle population inhabiting Pamlico and Core Sounds, North Carolina, USA. We used plasma testosterone reference ranges measured using radioimmunoassay (RIA) to assign sex for 959 turtles and confirmed sex assignment of a subset (N = 58) of the sampled turtles through laparoscopic examination of their gonads. Our results demonstrate that for this particular population of loggerheads, sex ratios (3Females:1Male) had not significantly changed over a 10 year period (1998–2007), nor showed any significant difference among 5-cm straight carapace length (SCL) size classes. Ultimately, these findings provide a basis for comparison with future sex ratios, and highlight the importance of establishing similar long-term studies monitoring secondary, rather than primary, sex ratios, so that needed mitigation measures to climate change impacts can be implemented. PMID:27579608

  10. Time varying arctic climate change amplification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dubey, Manvendra K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen [DALLHOUSIE U; Wang, Muyin [NOAA/JISAO

    2009-01-01

    During the past 130 years the global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.75 K. Due to feedbacks -- including the snow/ice albedo feedback -- the warming in the Arctic is expected to proceed at a faster rate than the global average. Climate model simulations suggest that this Arctic amplification produces warming that is two to three times larger than the global mean. Understanding the Arctic amplification is essential for projections of future Arctic climate including sea ice extent and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the temperature records from the Arctic stations to show that (a) the Arctic amplification is larger at latitudes above 700 N compared to those within 64-70oN belt, and that, surprisingly; (b) the ratio of the Arctic to global rate of temperature change is not constant but varies on the decadal timescale. This time dependence will affect future projections of climate changes in the Arctic.

  11. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  12. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  13. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  14. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  15. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  16. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  17. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  18. Climate change and water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  19. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pancic, Marina; Hansen, Per Juel; Tammilehto, Anna;

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8...... C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other......, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by 20–50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among...

  20. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pančić, M.; Hansen, Peter Juul; Tammilehto, A.;

    2015-01-01

    The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5 and 8 °C......) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect...... on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by ∼20–50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more...

  1. Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past-temperature reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Steen-Larsen, H. C.; Ortega, P.; Swingedouw, D.; Popp, T.; Vinther, B. M.; Oerter, H.; Sveinbjornsdottir, A. E.; Gudlaugsdottir, H.; Box, J. E.; Falourd, S.; Fettweis, X.; Gallée, H.; Garnier, E.; Gkinis, V.; Jouzel, J.; Landais, A.; Minster, B.; Paradis, N.; Orsi, A.; Risi, C.; Werner, M.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-08-01

    Combined records of snow accumulation rate, δ18O and deuterium excess were produced from several shallow ice cores and snow pits at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling), covering the period from 1724 to 2007. They are used to investigate recent climate variability and characterise the isotope-temperature relationship. We find that NEEM records are only weakly affected by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal δ18O and accumulation variability is related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature and is enhanced at the beginning of the 19th century. No long-term trend is observed in the accumulation record. By contrast, NEEM δ18O shows multidecadal increasing trends in the late 19th century and since the 1980s. The strongest annual positive δ18O values are recorded at NEEM in 1928 and 2010, while maximum accumulation occurs in 1933. The last decade is the most enriched in δ18O (warmest), while the 11-year periods with the strongest depletion (coldest) are depicted at NEEM in 1815-1825 and 1836-1846, which are also the driest 11-year periods. The NEEM accumulation and δ18O records are strongly correlated with outputs from atmospheric models, nudged to atmospheric reanalyses. Best performance is observed for ERA reanalyses. Gridded temperature reconstructions, instrumental data and model outputs at NEEM are used to estimate the multidecadal accumulation-temperature and δ18O-temperature relationships for the strong warming period in 1979-2007. The accumulation sensitivity to temperature is estimated at 11 ± 2 % °C-1 and the δ18O-temperature slope at 1.1 ± 0.2 ‰ °C-1, about twice as large as previously used to estimate last interglacial temperature change from the bottom part of the NEEM deep ice core.

  2. Reservoir Systems in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W.; Tung, C.; Tai, C.

    2007-12-01

    Climate change may cause more climate variability and further results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir¡¦s abilities to provide service, such as water supply and flood mitigation, and even danger reservoir¡¦s safety. Some local studies have identified that climate change may cause more flood in wet period and less flow in dry period in Taiwan. To mitigate climate change impacts, more reservoir space, i.e. less storage, may be required to store higher flood in wet periods, while more reservoir storage may be required to supply water for dry periods. The goals to strengthen adaptive capacity of water supply and flood mitigation are conflict under climate change. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems. The evaluation procedure includes hydrological models, a reservoir water balance model, and a water supply system dynamics model. The hydrological models are used to simulate reservoir inflows under different climate conditions. Future climate scenarios are derived from several GCMs. Then, the reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir¡¦s storage and outflows according to the simulated inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. At last, those outflows are further input to the system dynamics model to assess whether the goal of water supply can still be met. To mitigate climate change impacts, the implementing adaptation strategies will be suggested with the principles of risk management. Besides, uncertainties of this study will also be analyzed. The Feitsui reservoir system in northern Taiwan is chosen as a case study.

  3. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  4. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip;

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  5. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  6. Climate change and sustainability in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-07-01

    This paper discusses the climate history of the Earth, exploring some of the driving forces of climate change along the way. It points out that it may not be the gradual increase in global mean temperature that we have to fear the most. Rather the variability of the climate may pose an even greater threat to us. The paper outlines some possible future scenarios of climate change based on what we now think we know about the causes of climate change and possible future development in emissions of greenhouse gases. It then goes on to describe the current climate negotiations and possible political solutions in the near term, before concluding with a description of the more long-term fundamental challenges we face. The aim of the discussion is to provide a deeper understanding of the climate problem we are facing, as well as the challenges that lie ahead of us, individually as well as a region, in securing the climate aspect of a sustainable development for Europe and the world. The paper is based on a presentation given at the conference Rio + 10 in Dublin in September 2001, made possible by a kind contribution from the European Environment Agency. (author)

  7. Climate change and sustainability in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper discusses the climate history of the Earth, exploring some of the driving forces of climate change along the way. It points out that it may not be the gradual increase in global mean temperature that we have to fear the most. Rather the variability of the climate may pose an even greater threat to us. The paper outlines some possible future scenarios of climate change based on what we now think we know about the causes of climate change and possible future development in emissions of greenhouse gases. It then goes on to describe the current climate negotiations and possible political solutions in the near term, before concluding with a description of the more long-term fundamental challenges we face. The aim of the discussion is to provide a deeper understanding of the climate problem we are facing, as well as the challenges that lie ahead of us, individually as well as a region, in securing the climate aspect of a sustainable development for Europe and the world. The paper is based on a presentation given at the conference Rio + 10 in Dublin in September 2001, made possible by a kind contribution from the European Environment Agency. (author)

  8. What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Rowan; Suckling, Emma; Hawkins, Ed

    2015-11-13

    The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

  9. Effects of elevated temperature on the toxicity of copper and oxytetracycline in the marine model, Euplotes crassus: a climate change perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomiero, A; Viarengo, A

    2014-11-01

    Trace metals and broad-spectrum antibiotic drugs are common environmental contaminants, the importance of which is increasing due to global climate change-related effects. In the present study, the biological model organism E. crassus was first acclimated to five temperatures, from 25 °C to 33 °C, followed by exposure to nominal concentrations of copper, the antibiotic model compound oxytetracycline and mixtures of both, at increasing thermal conditions. Variations of temperature-related toxicity were assessed by two high-level endpoint tests, survival and replication rates, and two sublethal parameters: endocytosis rate and lysosomal membrane stability. The selected toxicants presented opposite behaviours as the protozoa's survival rates increased following an increasing thermal gradient in the oxytetracycline-related treatments, and a decline of tolerance in metal-related treatments was observed. Results of tests combining binary mixtures of tested toxicants showed a complex pattern of responses.

  10. Climate Change in Developing Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.A.; Lasage, R.; Dorlands, C. (eds.) [Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-15

    This book presents an overview of the studies conducted by the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance programme. The programme was set up in recognition of the need for developing countries, in particular, to face the challenges confronting all countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The book presents an overview of the main results in 13 countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Surinam, Vietnam, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It provides a critical evaluation of the methodologies and approaches used, a cross-country synthesis and recommendations for further studies. Subjects dealt with include not only impact studies, but also vulnerability and adaptation, mitigation and climate related policy.

  11. Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Basics Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions This page ... All Responses Is there a scientific consensus on climate change? The major scientific agencies of the United ...

  12. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  13. An Astronomer's View of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Donald C.

    2014-01-01

    There are several astronomical effects that could be important for understanding climate changes such as the ice ages, the Medieval Maximum, the Little Ice Age, the 20th century temperature rise and the small decrease during the past 15 years. These effects include variations in the sun's luminosity, periodic changes in the earth's orbital parameters, the sun's orbit around our galaxy, the solar wind, the variability of solar activity and the anticorrelation of the galactic cosmic ray flux with that activity. With the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report to the Intergoverment Panel on Climate Change, it is useful to review these effects and the extent to which that report and previoius ones have recognized them. This paper also discusses recent trends in solar activity and global temperatures and compares the latter with the predictions of climate models.

  14. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  15. Climate change and agriculture in Denmark

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This chapter reviews the current knowledge on effects of climate change on agriculture in Denmark, and the contribution of agriculture to greenhouse gas emissions in Denmark. The chapter also considers the possibilities of Danish agriculture to adapt to changing climate and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The relations to other aspects of global change are discussed, including liberalisation of world markets and changes in land use. Scenarios of climate change for Denmark suggest increases in annual mean temperature of 1 to 4 deg. C by the end of the 21st century depending on socioeconomic development. Winter rainfall may increase up to 20%. This implies a wide range of possible consequences. Agricultural productivity may be expected to increase under increasing temperature and increasing CO2 concentration. Highter temperatures will increase the risk of pests and deseases. Warming in association with increased winter rainfall will also increase the risk of nitrate leaching. Climate change may thus be expected to reinforce the current trends in Danish agriculture of declining cattle population and increasing pig and cereal production. Apart from an anticipated continued decline in total agricultural area, land use will probably not be greatly affected. The current environmental regulation in Denmark aims at reducing pesticide use and nitrogen losses from agriculture. Some of the regulations are very detailed and directly regulate farming practices in a manner that may not provide the most cost-effective mechanism under a changed climate. Some of these existing rigid frameworks for environmental regulation should thus be substituted by more flexible goal-oriented environmental protection strategies, in order to ensure sustainability of farming under global climate change. (LN)

  16. Mental health effects of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanta Kumar Padhy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.

  17. Climate Change and Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is one of a series of recent agreements through which countries around the world are banding together to meet the challenge of altering the global climate. In 1997, in respond to the growing public pressure and questions on climate change governments adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The 5th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP5 UNFCCC) was a rather technical and complex conference which focused in particular on the development of a detailed framework for the application of ''flexible mechanisms'' as laid down in the Kyoto Protocol. Young Generation Network as a part of the International Nuclear Forum at COP5 took part in the debate saying that nuclear is the part of the solution. (author)

  18. Climate change and preventive medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faergeman, Ole

    2007-01-01

    disease do not result from climate change, but they do share causes with climate change. Burning fossil fuels, for example, is the major source of greenhouse gases, but it also makes pervasive physical inactivity possible. Similarly, modern agriculture's enormous production of livestock contributes...... substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and it is the source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and societies of medical professionals have a particular responsibility, therefore, to contribute to the public discourse about climate change and what to do about it. Udgivelsesdato: 2007-Dec......Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery...

  19. Temperature-dependent sex determination in fish revisited: prevalence, a single sex ratio response pattern, and possible effects of climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Ospina-Alvarez

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In gonochoristic vertebrates, sex determination mechanisms can be classified as genotypic (GSD or temperature-dependent (TSD. Some cases of TSD in fish have been questioned, but the prevalent view is that TSD is very common in this group of animals, with three different response patterns to temperature. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed field and laboratory data for the 59 fish species where TSD has been explicitly or implicitly claimed so far. For each species, we compiled data on the presence or absence of sex chromosomes and determined if the sex ratio response was obtained within temperatures that the species experiences in the wild. If so, we studied whether this response was statistically significant. We found evidence that many cases of observed sex ratio shifts in response to temperature reveal thermal alterations of an otherwise predominately GSD mechanism rather than the presence of TSD. We also show that in those fish species that actually have TSD, sex ratio response to increasing temperatures invariably results in highly male-biased sex ratios, and that even small changes of just 1-2 degrees C can significantly alter the sex ratio from 1:1 (males:females up to 3:1 in both freshwater and marine species. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that TSD in fish is far less widespread than currently believed, suggesting that TSD is clearly the exception in fish sex determination. Further, species with TSD exhibit only one general sex ratio response pattern to temperature. However, the viability of some fish populations with TSD can be compromised through alterations in their sex ratios as a response to temperature fluctuations of the magnitude predicted by climate change.

  20. Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination in Fish Revisited: Prevalence, a Single Sex Ratio Response Pattern, and Possible Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ospina-Álvarez, Natalia; Piferrer, Francesc

    2008-01-01

    Background In gonochoristic vertebrates, sex determination mechanisms can be classified as genotypic (GSD) or temperature-dependent (TSD). Some cases of TSD in fish have been questioned, but the prevalent view is that TSD is very common in this group of animals, with three different response patterns to temperature. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed field and laboratory data for the 59 fish species where TSD has been explicitly or implicitly claimed so far. For each species, we compiled data on the presence or absence of sex chromosomes and determined if the sex ratio response was obtained within temperatures that the species experiences in the wild. If so, we studied whether this response was statistically significant. We found evidence that many cases of observed sex ratio shifts in response to temperature reveal thermal alterations of an otherwise predominately GSD mechanism rather than the presence of TSD. We also show that in those fish species that actually have TSD, sex ratio response to increasing temperatures invariably results in highly male-biased sex ratios, and that even small changes of just 1–2°C can significantly alter the sex ratio from 1∶1 (males∶females) up to 3∶1 in both freshwater and marine species. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate that TSD in fish is far less widespread than currently believed, suggesting that TSD is clearly the exception in fish sex determination. Further, species with TSD exhibit only one general sex ratio response pattern to temperature. However, the viability of some fish populations with TSD can be compromised through alterations in their sex ratios as a response to temperature fluctuations of the magnitude predicted by climate change. PMID:18665231

  1. Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past temperature reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Steen-Larsen, H. C.; Ortega, P.; Swingedouw, D.; Popp, T.; Vinther, B. M.; Oerter, H.; Sveinbjornsdottir, A. E.; Gudlaugsdottir, H.; Box, J. E.; Falourd, S.; Fettweis, X.; Gallée, H.; Garnier, E.; Jouzel, J.; Landais, A.; Minster, B.; Paradis, N.; Orsi, A.; Risi, C.; Werner, M.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-01-01

    Combined records of snow accumulation rate, δ18O and deuterium excess were produced from several shallow ice cores and snow pits at NEEM (north-west Greenland), covering the period from 1724 to 2007. They are used to investigate recent climate variability and characterize the isotope-temperature relationship. We find that NEEM records are only weakly affected by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal δ18O and accumulation variability is related to North Atlantic SST, and enhanced at the beginning of the 19th century. No long-term trend is observed in the accumulation record. By contrast, NEEM δ18O shows multi-decadal increasing trends in the late 19th century and since the 1980s. The strongest annual positive δ18O anomaly values are recorded at NEEM in 1928 and 2010, while maximum accumulation occurs in 1933. The last decade is the most enriched in δ18O (warmest), while the 11-year periods with the strongest depletion (coldest) are depicted at NEEM in 1815-1825 and 1836-1846, which are also the driest 11-year periods. The NEEM accumulation and δ18O records are strongly correlated with outputs from atmospheric models, nudged to atmospheric reanalyses. Best performance is observed for ERA reanalyses. Gridded temperature reconstructions, instrumental data and model outputs at NEEM are used to estimate the multi-decadal accumulation-temperature and δ18O-temperature relationships for the strong warming period in 1979-2007. The accumulation sensitivity to temperature is estimated at 11 ± 2% °C-1 and the δ18O-temperature slope at 1.1 ± 0.2‰ °C-1, about twice larger than previously used to estimate last interglacial temperature change from the bottom part of the NEEM deep ice core.

  2. Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past temperature reconstructions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Masson-Delmotte

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Combined records of snow accumulation rate, δ18O and deuterium excess were produced from several shallow ice cores and snow pits at NEEM (north-west Greenland, covering the period from 1724 to 2007. They are used to investigate recent climate variability and characterize the isotope–temperature relationship. We find that NEEM records are only weakly affected by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal δ18O and accumulation variability is related to North Atlantic SST, and enhanced at the beginning of the 19th century. No long-term trend is observed in the accumulation record. By contrast, NEEM δ18O shows multi-decadal increasing trends in the late 19th century and since the 1980s. The strongest annual positive δ18O anomaly values are recorded at NEEM in 1928 and 2010, while maximum accumulation occurs in 1933. The last decade is the most enriched in δ18O (warmest, while the 11-year periods with the strongest depletion (coldest are depicted at NEEM in 1815–1825 and 1836–1846, which are also the driest 11-year periods. The NEEM accumulation and δ18O records are strongly correlated with outputs from atmospheric models, nudged to atmospheric reanalyses. Best performance is observed for ERA reanalyses. Gridded temperature reconstructions, instrumental data and model outputs at NEEM are used to estimate the multi-decadal accumulation–temperature and δ18O–temperature relationships for the strong warming period in 1979–2007. The accumulation sensitivity to temperature is estimated at 11 ± 2% °C−1 and the δ18O–temperature slope at 1.1 ± 0.2‰ °C−1, about twice larger than previously used to estimate last interglacial temperature change from the bottom part of the NEEM deep ice core.

  3. Impact of Climate change on Milk production of Murrah buffaloes

    OpenAIRE

    A. Ashutosh; Gupta, S.K.; Kumar, A.(State University of New York at Buffalo, Buffalo, USA); Singh, S. V.; Upadhyay, R. C.

    2010-01-01

    Global warming is likely to impact productivity of buffaloes due to their sensitivity to temperature changes. Air temperature, humidity, wind velocity and solar radiation are the main climate variables that affect buffalo production in tropical climate. In the present study sensitivity of lactating Murrah buffaloes to sudden temperature (Tmax, Tmin) change and THI have been analyzed from milk production and climatic records (1994-2004) of Karnal. Algorithms were developed and validated on lac...

  4. Confronting climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially from energy production and use, and their impact on global climate emerged as a major national issue in the United States during the 1980s. As a result, Congress directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to ask the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering to assess the current state of research and development (R ampersand D) in the United States in alternative energy sources, and to suggest energy R ampersand D strategies involving roles for both the public and private sectors, should the government want to give priority to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The findings and recommendations of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, appointed by the National Research Council in response to Congress's directive, are provided in this report and summarized in this chapter. The energy R ampersand D strategies and actions recommended by the committee are structured to facilitate prudent and decisive responses by the United States, despite uncertainties regarding the effects of GHGs on global climate. 96 refs., 4 figs., 17 tabs

  5. Climate change and skin cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Leun, Jan C; de Gruijl, Frank R

    2002-05-01

    Depletion of the ozone layer and climate change by the increasing greenhouse effect are distinctly different processes. It is becoming quite clear, however, that the two global environmental problems are interlinked in several ways [D. L. Albritton, P. J Aucamp, G. Mégie, R. T. Watson, Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, 1998, World Meteorological Organization, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project, Report No. 44 (WMO, Geneva, 1998)]. In the present analysis we deal with the possibility of such an interlinkage within one effect on human health, namely, skin cancer. The increase in the incidence of skin cancer is one of the most extensively studied effects of increasing ultraviolet radiation by ozone depletion (F. R. de Gruijl, Skin cancer and solar radiation, Eur. J Cancer, 1999, 35, 2003-2009). We wondered if this impact could also be influenced by increasing environmental temperatures. Here we show that it is likely that such an influence will occur. For the same reason, it is likely that the baseline incidence of skin cancer will be augmented by rising temperatures, which may become significant in magnitude. PMID:12653470

  6. Changes in North Atlantic deep-sea temperature during climatic fluctuations of the last 25,000 years based on ostracode Mg/Ca ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, Gary S.; Cronin, Thomas M.; Baker, Paul A.; Rodriguez-Lazaro, Julio

    2000-01-01

    We reconstructed three time series of last glacial-to-present deep-sea temperature from deep and intermediate water sediment cores from the western North Atlantic using Mg/Ca ratios of benthic ostracode shells. Although the Mg/Ca data show considerable variability (“scatter”) that is common to single-shell chemical analyses, comparisons between cores, between core top shells and modern bottom water temperatures (BWT), and comparison to other paleo-BWT proxies, among other factors, suggest that multiple-shell average Mg/Ca ratios provide reliable estimates of BWT history at these sites. The BWT records show not only glacial-to-interglacial variations but also indicate BWT changes during the deglacial and within the Holocene interglacial stage. At the deeper sites (4500- and 3400-m water depth), BWT decreased during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the late Holocene, and possibly during the Younger Dryas. Maximum deep-sea warming occurred during the latest deglacial and early Holocene, when BWT exceeded modern values by as much as 2.5°C. This warming was apparently most intense around 3000 m, the depth of the modern-day core of North Atlantic deep water (NADW). The BWT variations at the deeper water sites are consistent with changes in thermohaline circulation: warmer BWT signifies enhanced NADW influence relative to Antarctic bottom water (AABW). Thus maximum NADW production and associated heat flux likely occurred during the early Holocene and decreased abruptly around 6500 years B.P., a finding that is largely consistent with paleonutrient studies in the deep North Atlantic. BWT changes in intermediate waters (1000-m water depth) of the subtropical gyre roughly parallel the deep BWT variations including dramatic mid-Holocene cooling of around 4°C. Joint consideration of the Mg/Ca-based BWT estimates and benthic oxygen isotopes suggests that the cooling was accompanied by a decrease in salinity at this site. Subsequently, intermediate waters warmed to modern

  7. Sociology: Drivers of climate change beliefs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Givens, Jennifer E.

    2014-12-01

    Direct experience of global warming is expected to increase the number of people who accept that it is real and human-caused. A study now shows that people's perceptions about abnormal temperatures mostly match actual measurements but do not affect climate change beliefs.

  8. Climate Change And Hydrologic Instability In Yemen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, C. P.; Funk, C. C.; McNally, A.; Shukla, S.

    2015-12-01

    Yemen is one of the most food insecure nations in the world. Its agriculture is strongly dependent on soil moisture that is heavily influenced by surface temperature and annual precipitation. We examine observations of rainfall and surface temperature and find that the rainfall, which exhibits strong interannual variability, has seen a moderate downward trend over the last 35 years while surface temperature has seen a very significant rise over the same period. Yemen has high vulnerability and low resilience to these climate changes stemming from many geopolitical and socioeconomic factors. The threshold of resilience has been crossed as Yemen is embroiled in chaos and conflict. We examine the relationship between climate change and agricultural and water insecurity using observed data and the Noah land surface model. We further used atmospheric reanalyses to explore the atmospheric teleconnections that affect the anomalous regional circulation. According to these investigations the robust surface temperature increase over recent decades, expected to continue under climate change, has strongly depleted the soil moisture. This drying of the soil exacerbated the acute hydrologic insecurity in Yemen, stemming predominantly from unsustainable groundwater use, and was likely a contributing factor to the ongoing conflict. We show that during naturally occurring dry years and under climate change this region experiences anomalous dry air advection from the northeast and that these regional circulation changes appear to be linked to tropical sea-surface temperature forcing and to the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation. These results are an important example of the emerging influence of climate change in hydrologically insecure regions.

  9. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V. [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA (United States); Diaz, Henry F. [NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Nino events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region. (orig.)

  10. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  11. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B.; Ponater, M. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  12. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C; Hartter, Joel; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary; Moore, David W; Safford, Thomas G

    2015-01-01

    A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  13. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence C Hamilton

    Full Text Available A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40% concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15% say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  14. Climate change (elevated CO{sub 2}, elevated temperature and moderate drought) triggers the antioxidant enzymes' response of grapevine cv. Tempranillo, avoiding oxidative damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salazar-Parra, C.; Aguirreolea, J.; Sanchez-Diaz, M.; Irigoyen, J.J.; Morales, F. (Departamento de Biologia Vegetal, Seccion Biologia Vegetal (Unidad Asociada al CSIC, EEAD, Zaragoza e ICVV, Logrono), Facultades de Ciencias y Farmacia, Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain))

    2012-07-01

    Photosynthetic carbon fixation (A{sub N}) and photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) are affected by different environmental stress factors, such as those associated with climate change. Under stress conditions, it can be generated an electron excess that cannot be consumed, which can react with O{sub 2}, producing reactive oxygen species. This work was aimed to evaluate the influence of climate change (elevated CO{sub 2}, elevated temperature and moderate drought) on the antioxidant status of grapevine (Vitis vinifera) cv. Tempranillo leaves, from veraison to ripeness. The lowest ratios between electrons generated (ETR) and consumed (A{sub N} + respiration + photorespiration) were observed in plants treated with elevated CO{sub 2} and elevated temperature. In partially irrigated plants under current ambient conditions, electrons not consumed seemed to be diverted to alternative ways. Oxidative damage to chlorophylls and carotenoids was not observed. However, these plants had increases in thiobarbituric acid reacting substances, an indication of lipid peroxidation. These increases matched well with an early rise of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and antioxidant enzyme activities, superoxide dismutase (EC 1.15.1.1), ascorbate peroxidase (EC 1.11.1.11) and catalase (EC 1.11.1.6). Enzymatic activities were maintained high until ripeness. In conclusion, plants grown under current ambient conditions and moderate drought were less efficient to cope with oxidative damage than well-irrigated plants, and more interestingly, plants grown under moderate drought but treated with elevated CO{sub 2} and elevated temperature were not affected by oxidative damage, mainly because of higher rates of electrons consumed in photosynthetic carbon fixation. (Author)

  15. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  16. Will changes in root-zone temperature in boreal spring affect recovery of photosynthesis in Picea mariana and Populus tremuloides in a future climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fréchette, Emmanuelle; Ensminger, Ingo; Bergeron, Yves; Gessler, Arthur; Berninger, Frank

    2011-11-01

    Future climate will alter the soil cover of mosses and snow depths in the boreal forests of eastern Canada. In field manipulation experiments, we assessed the effects of varying moss and snow depths on the physiology of black spruce (Picea -mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) in the boreal black spruce forest of western Québec. For 1 year, naturally regenerated 10-year-old spruce and aspen were grown with one of the following treatments: additional N fertilization, addition of sphagnum moss cover, removal of mosses, delayed soil thawing through snow and hay addition, or accelerated soil thawing through springtime snow removal. Treatments that involved the addition of insulating moss or snow in the spring caused lower soil temperature, while removing moss and snow in the spring caused elevated soil temperature and thus had a warming effect. Soil warming treatments were associated with greater temperature variability. Additional soil cover, whether moss or snow, increased the rate of photosynthetic recovery in the spring. Moss and snow removal, on the other hand, had the opposite effect and lowered photosynthetic activity, especially in spruce. Maximal electron transport rate (ETR(max)) was, for spruce, 39.5% lower after moss removal than with moss addition, and 16.3% lower with accelerated thawing than with delayed thawing. Impaired photosynthetic recovery in the absence of insulating moss or snow covers was associated with lower foliar N concentrations. Both species were affected in that way, but trembling aspen generally reacted less strongly to all treatments. Our results indicate that a clear negative response of black spruce to changes in root-zone temperature should be anticipated in a future climate. Reduced moss cover and snow depth could adversely affect the photosynthetic capacities of black spruce, while having only minor effects on trembling aspen. PMID:22021010

  17. Climate change and fuel poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Simon Dresner; Paul Ekins

    2005-01-01

    The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to spend more than 10% of income to maintain a satisfactory level of warmth and other energy services in the home). One particular concern was the prospect that there might be a shutting off of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain and the rest of north-western Europe. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that shutting down the Gulf Stream would cool England by about 3°C. Climate is not the only...

  18. Helping Small-Holder Farmers Deal with Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kelemu, Segenet

    2008-01-01

    Agriculture is a major activity and land use across the developing world; it is vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions. Climate change affects agricultural systems and production in various ways, for example by changing agro-ecological conditions. Changes in the pattern and amount of precipitation, as well as temperature, can directly affect the suitability of cultivable land for agricultural production, food supplies and food utilisation. Climate change can affect food security, depend...

  19. Reporting the climate change crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Anabela

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious threats that humankind will have to deal with in the coming decades. There is every indication that it will engender a significant upheaval in the climate patterns of the world regions, with corresponding impacts on agriculture, ecosystems and human health. This main entail unpredictable weather events, like storms and tornados, while posing significant risks for human security, destruction of housing and economic structures, and floodi...

  20. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  1. Invasive species and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    Invasive species challenge managers in their work of conserving and managing natural areas and are one of the most serious problems these managers face. Because invasive species are likely to spread in response to changes in climate, managers may need to change their approaches to invasive species management accordingly.

  2. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  3. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  4. Three eras of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul; Toulmin, Camilla

    2006-10-15

    Climate change as a global challenge has evolved through a series of stages in the last few decades. We are now on the brink of a new era which will see the terms of the debate shift once again. The different eras are characterised by the scientific evidence, public perceptions, responses and engagement of different groups to address the problem. In the first era, from the late 1980s to 2000, climate change was seen as an “environmental” problem to do with prevention of future impacts on the planet's climate systems over the next fifty to hundred years, through reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, known as “mitigation”. The second era can be said to have started around the turn of the millennium, with the recognition that there will be some unavoidable impacts from climate change in the near term (over the next decade or two). These impacts must be coped with through “adaptation”, as well as mitigation, to prevent much more severe and possibly catastrophic impacts in the longer term. It has become clear that many of the impacts of climate change in the near term are likely to fall on the poorest countries and communities. The third era, which we are just about to enter, will see the issue change from tackling an environmental or development problem to a question of “global justice”. It will engage with a much wider array of citizens from around the world than previous eras.

  5. Climate change characteristics of Amur River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lan-lan YU; Zi-qiang XIA; Jing-ku LI; Tao CAI

    2013-01-01

    Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data (from 1953 to 1995) and monthly data (from 1950 to 2010) of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following:the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter;the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River;the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River;the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.

  6. Spatial changes of Extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Ebrahimpour, Meisam; Khalili, Ali

    2013-05-01

    In order to better understand the effect associated with global climate change on Iran's climate condition, it is important to quantify possible shifts in different climatic types in the future. To this end, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature, and precipitation from 181 synoptic meteorological stations (average 1970-2005) have been collected from the meteorological organization of Iran. In this paper, to study spatial changes of Iran's climatic zones affected by climate changes, Extended De Martonne's classification (originally formulated by De Martonne and extended by Khalili (1992)) was used. Climate change scenarios were simulated in two future climates (average conditions during the 2050s and the 2080s) under each of the SRES A1B and A2, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3, and CGCM3 climate models. Coarse outputs of GCMs were downscaled by delta method. We produced all maps for three time periods (one for the current and two for the future) according to Extended De Martonne's classification. Finally, for each climatic zone, changes between the current and the future were compared. As the main result, simulated changes indicate shifts to warmer and drier zones. For example, in the current, extra arid-cold ( A1.1m2) climate is covering the largest area of the country (21.4 %), whereas in both A1B and A2 scenarios in the 2050s and the 2080s, extra arid-moderate ( A1.1m3) and extra arid-warm ( A1.1m4) will be the climate and will occupy the largest area of the country, about 21 and 38 %, respectively. This analysis suggests that the global climate change will have a profound effect on the future distribution of severe aridity in Iran.

  7. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-01-01

    "Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3{\\sigma}) warmer than climatology. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface in the period of climatology, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  8. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-01-01

    "Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3 sigma) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  9. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    OpenAIRE

    T.M. CORNEA; Dima, M.; Roca, D.

    2011-01-01

    Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ...

  10. Genetic plant improvement and climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magno Antonio Patto Ramalho

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of climate change for the agribusiness in Brazil have been widely debated. The issue isdiscussed in this publication to show the expected problems, particularly those associated with increases in temperature andwater stress. It is emphasized that the genetic improvement of plants, based on the experience in the past, has much tocontribute to mitigate these problems. To invest in the breeding of new cultivars, selected under stress conditions, is certainlythe best possible strategy for agriculture to cope with changes caused by climate alterations.

  11. Philosophy of climate science part II: modelling climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the second of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this second part about modelling climate change, the topics of climate modelling, confirmation of climate models, the limits of climate projections, uncertainty and finally model ensembles will be discussed.

  12. Changing Energy Requirements in the Mediterranean Under Changing Climatic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Demosthenous

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of climate change on energy requirements in the Mediterranean. Energy requirements, especially for space heating and cooling, are closely linked to several weather variables, mainly air temperature. The analysis is based on daily temperature outputs from several regional climate models run at a resolution of 25 km × 25 km in the framework of EU project ENSEMBLES using the A1B emissions scenario. The impacts of changes in temperature on energy requirements are investigated using the concept of degree days, defined as the difference of mean air temperature from a base temperature. Base temperature should be chosen to coincide with the minimum energy consumption. In this way, changes in heating and cooling requirements between the reference and the future period are calculated and areas about to undergo large changes identified. These changes are calculated between a 30-year reference period 1961–1990 and a near future period 2021–2050 taking the ensemble mean of all regional climate models. The near-term future has been chosen instead of the frequently used end-of-the-century period to assist policy makers in their planning. In general, a decrease in energy requirements is projected under future milder winters and an increase under hotter summers.

  13. Climate Change, Conflict, and Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akresh, Richard

    2016-01-01

    We have good reason to predict that a warming climate will produce more conflict and violence. A growing contingent of researchers has been examining the relationship in recent years, and they've found that hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall are linked to increases in conflict at all scales, from interpersonal violence to war. Children are…

  14. Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

    2012-07-01

    1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation

  15. Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

    2012-07-01

    1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation

  16. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  17. Market Strategies for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-06-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still reflect the political, non-market components. Using empirical information from the largest multinational companies worldwide, this article examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. It also develops a typology of climate strategies that addresses the market dimensions, covering both the aim (strategic intent) and the degree of cooperation (form of organisation). The aim turns out to be either innovation or compensation, while the organisational arrangements to reach this objective can be oriented at the company level (internal), at companies' own supply chain (vertical) or at cooperation with other companies (competitors or companies in other sectors - horizontal). The typology can assist managers in deciding about the strategic option(s) they want to choose regarding climate change, also based on the insights offered by the paper about the current state of activities of other companies worldwide.

  18. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  19. How Should we Address Climate Change?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YE Duzheng; YAN Zhongwei; HUANG Gang

    2009-01-01

    @@ Global warming goes on The climate has always been changing. Here we refer to the changes concerning the current global warming,which is unprecedented both in terms of the rate at which the warming takes place and the extent to which human activities exert impacts on it. Observational analyses indicate that the global mean temperature increased by about 0.6℃/century over the last century;

  20. Global climate change and infectious diseases.

    OpenAIRE

    EK Shuman

    1991-01-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengu...

  1. Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

  2. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  3. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  4. GREEN ECONOMY AND CLIMATE CHANGE PREVENTION CYCLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea CONSTANTINESCU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While experts in economics place transition to green economy on two directions - reducing ecological footprint and increasing human welfare - climate change specialists warn that effects of global warming will have a much greater impact in the future. It is natural to join scientific contributions in these two areas because both perspectives recognize the ravages made by industrialization, which triggered a serie of abrupt climate changes. For example, the average temperature in Europe has increased about 1oC. Based on these evidences, this article will show the usefulness of introducing a concept of full cycle to prevent climate change in the new paradigm that seeks to solve problems related to the fundamentals of sustainable development through transition to green economy. Using this method, this approach intends to be a new theoretical contribution which can act as support to efficiency of new clean technologies.

  5. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.

  6. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people. PMID:26920851

  7. Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied Taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazer, Susan J.; Travers, Steven E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Bolmgren, Kjell; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Salamin, Nicolas; Inouye, David W.

    2013-01-01

    Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

  8. Climate Change Projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mearns, L. O.; Sain, Steve; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; McGinnis, Seth; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Arritt, R.; Gutowski, William; Takle, Eugene S.; Snyder, Mark A.; Jones, Richard; Nunes, A M B.; Tucker, S.; Herzmann, D.; McDaniel, Larry; Sloan, Lisa

    2013-10-01

    We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.

  9. International aspects of climate change: The intergovernmental panel on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The impact of various international conferences concerning global climate change on international opinions and attitudes is discussed. A number of conferences over the past two decades have drawn attention to the large socio-economic consequences of climate change. There has been increasing attention given to the likely affect of anthropogenically derived greenhouse gases on the global climate. Some early uncertainty over the likely long term changes in global temperature have been replaced by a scientific consensus that global temperatures are increasing and will continue to do so into the next century. Public awareness of the possibility of climate change and severe socio-economic consequences has been increasing and was given a major impetus by the Toronto Conference on the Changing Atmosphere. An estimate of the possible time to solution of the climate change issue is given as 1988-2005, a span of 17 years. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has focused work into three working groups examining science, impacts and response strategies. 28 refs., 3 figs., 6 tabs

  10. Extreme climatic events in a changing climate: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beniston, M.

    2003-04-01

    While changes in the long-term mean state of climate will have many important consequences on numerous environmental, social, and economic sectors, the most significant impacts of climatic change are likely to come about from shifts in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Indeed, insurance costs resulting from extreme weather events have been steadily increasing over the last two decades, in response to both population pressures in regions that are at risk, but also because of the frequency and severity of certain forms of extremes. Regions now safe from catastrophic wind storms, heat waves, and floods could suddenly become vulnerable. The associated damage costs would consequently be extremely high. It seems appropriate, therefore, considering the environmental, human and economic costs exerted by extreme climatic events, to address the problem of whether there may be significant shifts in extremes of wind, precipitation or temperature in a changing global climate. In order to achieve these goals, the level of current scientific understanding and the availability of computational resources now enable numerical modeling techniques to be applied to this problem area. Examples will be given of particular numerical simulations of extreme events that have affected Western Europe and the alpine region in recent years. These simulations and impacts studies will be compared to observed events and trends during the 20th century, where adequate data is available to assess the manner in which certain forms of extreme events have changed, in part as a response to the global warming observed over the last 100 years.

  11. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  12. Impacts of Projected Climate Change on Urban Water Use

    OpenAIRE

    United States Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation

    1994-01-01

    Urban water use, particularly outdoor use, responds to changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic parameters. This study significantly improved the capacity of an existing regional water demand model to estimate the response of both residential and commercial-industrial water demand to changes in climatic parameters. The resulting functional relationships derived from historic time-series climatic and water use data were applied to global climate scenarios for the four Wasatc...

  13. Forests and climate change - lessons from insects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Battisti A

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The climate change may indirectly affects the forest ecosystems through the activity of phytophagous insects. The climate change has been claimed to be responsible of the range expansion northward and upward of several insect species of northern temperate forests, as well as of changes in the seasonal phenology. Several papers have dealt with the prediction of the most likely consequences of the climate change on the phytophagous insects, including some of the most important forest pests. Increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere involve an increase of the C/N balance of the plant tissues, which in turn results in a lower food quality for many defoliating insects. Some insects respond by increasing the level of leaf consumption and consequently the damage to the tree, whereas others show higher mortality and lower performance. The level of plant chemical defenses may also be affected by a change of CO2. The temperature is affecting either the survival of the insects which are active during the cold period, such as the pine processionary moth, or the synchronization mechanism between the host and the herbivores, as in the case of the larch bud moth. An increase of temperature may alter the mechanism by which the insects adjust their cycles to the local climate (diapause, resulting in faster development and higher feeding rate, as in the case of the spruce webspinning sawfly outbreaks in the Southern Alps.

  14. Forests and climate change - lessons from insects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Battisti A

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available The climate change may indirectly affects the forest ecosystems through the activity of phytophagous insects. The climate change has been claimed to be responsible of the range expansion northward and upward of several insect species of northern temperate forests, as well as of changes in the seasonal phenology. Several papers have dealt with the prediction of the most likely consequences of the climate change on the phytophagous insects, including some of the most important forest pests. Increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere involve an increase of the C/N balance of the plant tissues, which in turn results in a lower food quality for many defoliating insects. Some insects respond by increasing the level of leaf consumption and consequently the damage to the tree, whereas others show higher mortality and lower performance. The level of plant chemical defences may also be affected by a change of CO2. The temperature is affecting either the survival of the insects which are active during the cold period, such as the pine processionary moth, or the synchronization mechanism between the host and the herbivores, as in the case of the larch bud moth. An increase of temperature may alter the mechanism by which the insects adjust their cycles to the local climate (diapause, resulting in faster development and higher feeding rate, as in the case of the spruce web-spinning sawfly outbreaks in the Southern Alps.

  15. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge.

  16. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-08-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  17. Climatic servitude: climate change, business and politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book is together a contemporary history book and a global dossier about a topic of prime importance in our civilization. It treats of the history of science, of ideas and events put in the modern civilization context, of science situation and scientific controversies, of the media aspects, of carbon economy and its related business, of Al Gore's and Maurice Strong's biographies, and finally, it makes a critical geopolitical analysis and makes proposals for a renovated ecology. In the conclusion, the author shows how climate change has become the hobbyhorse of a new thinking trend, namely the New World Order, aiming at conducting people to the acceptance of constraining policies encompassing the energy security of nations, new taxes, a worldwide economic disruption, the limitation of the World's population, and a World governance supported by the United Nations and not constrained by classical democratic rules. (J.S.)

  18. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  19. Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

    2015-01-01

    The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect

  20. The Pace of Perceivable Extreme Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y.

    2015-12-01

    When will the signal of obvious changes in extreme climate emerge over climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key question for planning and implementing measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change to natural and human systems that are generally adapted to potential changes from current variability. We estimated ToEs for the magnitude, duration and frequency of global extreme climate represented by 24 extreme climate indices (16 for temperature and 8 for precipitation) with different thresholds of the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio based on projections of CMIP5 global climate models under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 for the 21st century. The uncertainty of ToE is assessed by using 3 different methods to calculate S/N for each extreme index. Results show that ToEs of the projected extreme climate indices based on the RCP4.5 climate scenarios are generally projected to happen about 20 years later than that for the RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Under RCP8.5, the projected magnitude, duration and frequency of extreme temperature on Earth will all exceed 2 standard deviations by 2100, and the empirical 50th percentile of the global ToE for the frequency and magnitude of hot (cold) extreme are about 2040 and 2054 (2064 and 2054) for S/N > 2, respectively. The 50th percentile of global ToE for the intensity of extreme precipitation is about 2030 and 2058 for S/N >0.5 and S/N >1, respectively. We further evaluated the exposure of ecosystems and human societies to the pace of extreme climate change by determining the year of ToE for various extreme climate indices projected to occur over terrestrial biomes, marine realms and major urban areas with large populations. This was done by overlaying terrestrial, ecoregions and population maps with maps of ToE derived, to extract ToEs for these regions. Possible relationships between GDP per person and ToE are also investigated by relating the mean ToE for each country and its average value of GDP per person.

  1. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  2. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  3. Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliseev, A.V.; Bezmenov, K.V.; Demchenko, P.F.; Mokhov, I.I.; Petoukhov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1995-12-31

    The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

  4. Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buizert, Christo; Gkinis, Vasileios; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P; He, Feng; Lecavalier, Benoit S; Kindler, Philippe; Leuenberger, Markus; Carlson, Anders E; Vinther, Bo; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; White, James W C; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Brook, Edward J

    2014-09-01

    Greenland ice core water isotopic composition (δ(18)O) provides detailed evidence for abrupt climate changes but is by itself insufficient for quantitative reconstruction of past temperatures and their spatial patterns. We investigate Greenland temperature evolution during the last deglaciation using independent reconstructions from three ice cores and simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. Contrary to the traditional δ(18)O interpretation, the Younger Dryas period was 4.5° ± 2°C warmer than the Oldest Dryas, due to increased carbon dioxide forcing and summer insolation. The magnitude of abrupt temperature changes is larger in central Greenland (9° to 14°C) than in the northwest (5° to 9°C), fingerprinting a North Atlantic origin. Simulated changes in temperature seasonality closely track changes in the Atlantic overturning strength and support the hypothesis that abrupt climate change is mostly a winter phenomenon.

  5. A model approach to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Earth is warming up, with potentially disastrous consequences. Computer climate models based on physics are our best hope of predicting and managing climate change, as Adam Scaife, Chris Folland and John Mitchell explain. This month scientists from over 60 nations on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released the first part of their latest report on global warming. In the report the panel concludes that it is very likely that most of the 0.5 deg. C increase in global temperature over the last 50 years is due to man-made emissions of greenhouse gases. And the science suggests that much greater changes are in store: by 2100 anthropogenic global warming could be comparable to the warming of about 6 deg. C since the last ice age. The consequences of global warming could be catastrophic. As the Earth continues to heat up, the frequency of floods and droughts is likely to increase, water supplies and ecosystems will be placed under threat, agricultural practices will have to be changed and millions of people may be displaced as the sea level rises. The global economy could also be severely affected. The scientific consensus is that the observed warming of the Earth during the past half-century is mostly due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Predicting climate change depends on sophisticated computer models developed over the past 50 years. Climate models are based on the Navier-Stokes equations for fluid flow, which are solved numerically on a grid covering the globe. These models have been very successful in simulating the past climate, giving researchers confidence in their predictions. The most likely value for the global temperature increase by 2100 is in the range 1.4-5.8 deg. C, which could have catastrophic consequences. (U.K.)

  6. Pleistocene Climate, Phylogeny, and Climate Envelope Models: An Integrative Approach to Better Understand Species' Response to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    A Michelle Lawing; David Polly, P

    2011-01-01

    Mean annual temperature reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change increases at least 1.1°C to 6.4°C over the next 90 years. In context, a change in climate of 6°C is approximately the difference between the mean annual temperature of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and our current warm interglacial. Species have been responding to changing climate throughout Earth's history and their previous biological responses can inform our expectations for future climate change. Here we sy...

  7. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  8. Nuclear energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO2 emissions. (Author)

  9. Kyoto protocol on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article reports a short overview of main points of Kyoto protocol to United Nations Framework Convention on climate Change and of some options still to be defined, evolutions of Italian emissions with respect to other European countries, check of decree by inter ministerial committee on economic planning on national plan to reduce emissions

  10. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... or insects can increase. Disease vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and flies may occur in greater numbers over longer periods during the year, and expand the locations in which they thrive. Climate change also affects air movement and quality by increasing ...

  11. Climate benefits of changing diet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stehfest, E.; Bouwman, A.F.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Elzen, M.; Kabat, P.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in

  12. Symposium on Global Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Schmalensee

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change, and policies to slow it or adapt to it, may be among the primary forces shaping the world's economy throughout the next century and beyond. Nonetheless, popular treatments of this issue commonly ignore economics. This introductory essay sketches some of the uncertainties and research questions.

  13. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  14. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  15. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  16. Climate change and related activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The production and consumption of energy contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and is the focus of other environmental concerns as well. Yet the use of energy contributes to worldwide economic growth and development. If we are to achieve environmentally sound economic growth, we must develop and deploy energy technologies that contribute to global stewardship. The Department of Energy carries out an aggressive scientific research program to address some of the key uncertainties associated with the climate change issue. Of course, research simply to study the science of global climate change is not enough. At the heart of any regime of cost-effective actions to address the possibility of global climate change will be a panoply of new technologies-technologies both to provide the services we demand and to use energy more efficiently than in the past. These, too, are important areas of responsibility for the Department. This report is a brief description of the Department's activities in scientific research, technology development, policy studies, and international cooperation that are directly related to or have some bearing on the issue of global climate change

  17. Emergency Managers Confront Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Labadie

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Emergency managers will have to deal with the impending, uncertain, and possibly extreme effects of climate change. Yet, many emergency managers are not aware of the full range of possible effects, and they are unsure of their place in the effort to plan for, adapt to, and cope with those effects. This may partly reflect emergency mangers’ reluctance to get caught up in the rancorous—and politically-charged—debate about climate change, but it mostly is due to the worldview shared by most emergency managers. We focus on: extreme events; acute vs. chronic hazards (floods vs. droughts; a shorter event horizon (5 years vs. 75–100 years; and a shorter planning and operational cycle. This paper explores the important intersection of emergency management, environmental management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It examines the different definitions of terms common to all three fields, the overlapping strategies used in all three fields, and the best means of collaboration and mutual re-enforcement among the three to confront and solve the many possible futures that we may face in the climate change world.

  18. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  19. Population, poverty, and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Das Gupta, Monica

    2013-01-01

    The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to ...

  20. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  1. Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

    2013-12-01

    Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

  2. Enchytraeidae (Oligochaeta) in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maraldo, Kristine

    The background for this thesis was to investigate the effect of climate change (increased CO2, temperature and prolonged drought) on field communities of enchytraeids dominated by the species Cognettia sphagnetorum. In the short-term, enchytraeids appear to be unaffected by the climate change whe...... genetics drought resistance. Factors such as extreme events, seasonal and interannually variations were all important factors as well and strongly influenced the responses of enchytraeids in the field.......The background for this thesis was to investigate the effect of climate change (increased CO2, temperature and prolonged drought) on field communities of enchytraeids dominated by the species Cognettia sphagnetorum. In the short-term, enchytraeids appear to be unaffected by the climate change when...... all factors were combined. However, in a long-term drought experiment in which C. sphagnetorum was exposed repeatedly to drought during a six year period, the species was, evidently, negatively affected. Even though the enchytraeids had been exposed for a long period, there was no sign of increased...

  3. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  4. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  5. Permafrozen temperature regime affected by climate variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper reports on the numerical-analytical solution for the problem of periodically constant heat exchange in permafrost. There are no initial conditions and the task at issue is based upon the soil conductive heat exchange simulation. In addition, at thawing or freezing, the parameters of water/ice transition, geothermal temperature gradient and the snow cover impact upon the soil heat transition to outer ground have also been taken into account. This solution is governed by the following characteristics: annual air temperature change; winter precipitation accumulation; thermo-physical soil properties either in thawed or in frozen state. Considering the adduced solution the following parameters can be determined: the soil temperature at zero year amplitude level; the frost penetration lower boundary depth; and others. The calculated data are presented and compared with the results of previous field tests. The influence of the quantitative characteristics, such as variable climate and winter precipitation accumulation, upon the soil temperature pattern will be shown; in particular, the frost penetration lower boundary depth is varied by yearly average temperature increase or decrease. The regions where one-two degree yearly average temperature increases result in total permafrost disappearance have been located

  6. Climate Change: Geophysical Puzzles and Some Answers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, S. F.

    2009-04-01

    Climate change is a complex subject, involving many disciplines of geophysics - from geodynamics and meteorology to solar-terrestrial relationships and solar-planetary dynamics. We will discuss a number of scientific puzzles, many still unanswered: · How much of climate change of the past century is anthropogenic and how much is caused by Nature? · How reliable are temperature data of the atmosphere and of the surface, including sea surface? · How reliable are climate models used to calculate future temperatures? · How good is the evidence for solar forcing of climate? · On a decadal time scale, is natural forcing mainly solar or due to internal oscillations? · Can the 1500-year cycle discovered in ice cores explain the Medieval Warming and Little Ice Age? · Why does sea level rise show no acceleration - and how to account for its observed magnitude? -------------------------------------------------------------------- Much of the presentation is based on the NIPCC report "Nature - Not Human Activity - Rules the Climate" http://www.sepp.org/publications/NIPCC_final.pdf

  7. Dawn of astronomy and global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakamura, Tsuko

    2007-12-01

    The author proposes that the birth of astronomy in ancient civilizations, which took place nearly simultaneously (4000 - 5000 years ago) around the Nile, Tigris and Euphrates, Indus, and the Yellow River, was caused by the global climate change (cooling and drying) that started about 5000 years ago after the hypsithermal (high-temperature) period. It is also pointed out that a few names of Twenty-Four Qi's appearing in old Chinese calendars are remnants of the calm climate in the hypsithermal period. It is discussed that numerous meteorological records seen in divination inscriptions on bones and tortoise-shells excavated at the capital of the ancient Yin (Shang) dynasty suggest occurrence of the climatic cooling and drying at that time and this change triggered spawning the early Chinese astronomy.

  8. Impact of Climate Change in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    N.B. Ikenweiwe; A.I. Opele; S.O. Ayoola,; A.A. Idowu,

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is an adverse environmental phenomenon that is causing enormous concern all over the world. It refers to some anomalies in the climate system that is a result of human activities. These anomalies include increase in the concentration of GHGs, HFCs and CFCs in earth’s atmosphere, which will ultimately leadto global warming. In fact, global warming has already begun, as earth’s temperature has risen between 0.4 and 0.8°C in the last 100 years. Nigeria is one of the world’s most d...

  9. Climate Change and Oil Depletion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2 atmospheric content and of the average earth surface temperature are being considered to be interrelated. Carbon dioxide, water vapour and clouds all act as greenhouse forcing agents; cloud cover on account of its high solar reflectivity also acts as a direct cooling agent. Aerosols are of great importance in the processes of cloud formation and in precipitation initiation, thereby affecting the hydrological cycle; they also exhibit radiative forcing properties both direct and indirect, by the way of the clouds, either positive or negative, according to their particular composition. These particular influences are not yet well known and not yet properly incorporated in the simulations of climate scenarios adopted by the IPCC. And uncertainty brackets are still rather large. Notwithstanding, the results of these still incomplete climate scenarios have been taken as enough scientific evidence to decide upon imposing limits to greenhouse gas emissions. The European Union has already approved an European Climate Change Programme and took the political initiative in the Marrakech COP of the UNFCCC in November 2001, to the effect of the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol (1997). This is a political option which, besides setting emissions targets and energy policy terms of reference, also sets emission taxes and opens a new financial market for the trade of emission rights or permits. Evidence for the actual strain put upon the fossil energy supply is rather stronger than the evidence for anthropogenic climate changes. Rather more attention should be drawn to the supply of alternative energy sources, to the development of new energy carriers, to the improvement of technologies of energy conversion and storage as well as to the rationalization and moderation of demand at end use, so that a severe fossil energy supply crises might be avoided. In doing so, environmental and climatic consequences of any kind due to the rising worldwide level of energy demand would be

  10. Cloud feedback on climate change and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, C.; Dessler, A. E.; Yang, P.

    2014-12-01

    Cloud feedback on climate change and variability follow similar mechanism in climate models, and the magnitude of cloud feedback on climate change and variability are well correlated among models. Therefore, the cloud feedback on short-term climate fluctuations correlates with the equilibrium climate sensitivity in climate models. Using this correlation and the observed short-term climate feedback, we infer a climate sensitivity of ~2.9K. The cloud response to inter-annual surface warming is generally consistent in observations and climate models, except for the tropical boundary-layer low clouds.

  11. Climate variability: Possible changes with climate change and impacts on crop yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A pilot study was carried out of the sensitivity of the CERES wheat model, a deterministic crop-climate model, to changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. The study was designed to determine the effect of changed temperature variance on the mean and variance of the simulated yields, to compare the effect with the effect of mean temperature changes, and to determine the interacting effects of changes in mean and variance of temperature. The CERES model was applied to 29 cropping years (1952-1980), using three different soil types and two different management practices (fully irrigated and dryland). The coefficients of variation of the yields for irrigated and dryland conditions are plotted against variance change. It was found that in both management systems, the yield response is usually greater to increases rather than decreases in variance. The combined effect of mean and variance temperature changes are most striking under irrigated conditions, with a dramatic decrease in yield variability in the high mean climate change scenario with decreased temperature variance. This suggests that the variability decrease might mitigate the effect of a mean increase in temperature. This result is not found with the dryland case, where decreased temperature variability has little impact on yield variability. 12 refs., 4 figs

  12. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  13. Precipitation extremes under climate change

    CERN Document Server

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to...

  14. The climatic change induced by human activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate of the Earth is a changing climate. Along their history many natural climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate changes have existed in all time scales. At the present time we use the term climate change in a restricted way, understanding that we have referring to a singular change that has their origin in the modification of the natural composition of the atmosphere. The increase of greenhouse gases from the second half the XVIII century, is due to the human activities of fossil fuels burning to obtain energy and to industrial and agricultural activities needing for the development of a world which population has been duplicated between 1960 and 2000, until overcoming the 6,000 million inhabitants. In particular, the concentrations of carbon dioxide-CO2 have increased in a 34%. The more recent emission scenarios proposed by the IPCC (SRES, 2000) are based on hypothesis about the population evolution, the energy consumption and the word patterns of development, which are grouped in four families dominated as A1, A2, B1 and B2. The answer for these scenarios from a range of climate models results in an increase of the world average surface atmospheric temperature between 1,4 degree centigrade and 5,8 degree centigrade and a corresponding sea level rise understood between 9 cm and 88 cm. The changes in the precipitation patterns show us that could be above to the current one in high and media latitudes and below in subtropical latitudes, with exceptions highly depending of the model used. (Author)

  15. Impact of Climate Change in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N.B. Ikenweiwe

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is an adverse environmental phenomenon that is causing enormous concern all over the world. It refers to some anomalies in the climate system that is a result of human activities. These anomalies include increase in the concentration of GHGs, HFCs and CFCs in earth’s atmosphere, which will ultimately leadto global warming. In fact, global warming has already begun, as earth’s temperature has risen between 0.4 and 0.8°C in the last 100 years. Nigeria is one of the world’s most densely populated countries with a population of 180 million people, half of which are considered to be in abject poverty. Nigeria is recognized as beingvulnerable to climate change. Climate change and global warming if left unchecked will cause adverse effects on livelihoods in Nigeria, such as crop production, livestock production, fisheries, forestry and post-harvest activities, because the rainfall regimes and patterns will be altered, floods which devastate farmlands wouldoccur, increase in temperature and humidity which increases pest and disease would occur and other natural disasters like floods, ocean and storm surges, which not only damage Nigerians’ livelihood but also cause harm to life and property, would occur. The paper provides a strong starting point and a useful guide for furtherinvestigations and solution finding projects, both at the local and international levels which focus on more specific issues like public health, food security, energy, adaptations and barriers to them.

  16. Climate Change and Variability in Ghana: Stocktaking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix A. Asante

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a holistic literature review of climate change and variability in Ghana by examining the impact and projections of climate change and variability in various sectors (agricultural, health and energy and its implication on ecology, land use, poverty and welfare. The findings suggest that there is a projected high temperature and low rainfall in the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, and desertification is estimated to be proceeding at a rate of 20,000 hectares per annum. Sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters and this will have drastic effects on fishery. There will be a reduction in the suitability of weather within the current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana by 2050 and an increase evapotranspiration of the cocoa trees. Furthermore, rice and rooted crops (especially cassava production are expected to be low. Hydropower generation is also at risk and there will be an increase in the incidence rate of measles, diarrheal cases, guinea worm infestation, malaria, cholera, cerebro-spinal meningitis and other water related diseases due to the current climate projections and variability. These negative impacts of climate change and variability worsens the plight of the poor, who are mostly women and children.

  17. ESA Sea Level Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larnicol, Gilles; Cazenave, Anny; Faugere, Yannice; Ablain, Michael; Johannessen, Johnny; Stammer, Detlef; Timms, Gary; Knudsen, Per; Cipollini, Paolo; Roca, Monica; Rudenko, Sergei; Fernandes, Joana; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Guinle, Thierry; Benveniste, Jerome

    2013-04-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. As the ocean warms in response to global warming, sea waters expand and, as a result, sea level rises. When mountain glaciers melt in response to increasing air temperature, sea level rises because more freshwater glacial runoff discharges into the oceans. Similarly, ice mass loss from the ice sheets causes sea-level rise. Therefore, understanding the sea level variability and changes implies in addition to the understanding of the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere, an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales. That is why Sea Level is one of the variables selected in the frame of the ESA Climate change Initiative (CCI) program initiated by ESA in July 2010. In overall, this program aims to provide an adequate, comprehensive, and timely response to the extremely challenging set of requirements for highly stable, long-term satellite-based products for climate, that have been addressed to Space Agencies via the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS). In order to achieve this global objective, the specific objectives of the sea level CCI project are: to involve the climate research community to collect their needs and feedbacks on product quality, to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate a climate time series (so called SL ECV products), and to provide a complete specification of the production system. After two of projects the first two objectives have been completed. Hereafter, we aim to provide an overview and the current status of the Sea Level project of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) that has started in july 2010. The main objective of this project is to produce and validate the Sea Level Essential Climate Variable (ECV) product. Two years after the project kick-off, the 20 Years of Progress in Radar Altimetry Symposium was

  18. Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.

    OpenAIRE

    Reid, PC; Fischer, AC; Lewis-Brown, E.; Meredith, MP; Sparrow, M; Andersson, AJ; Antia, A.; Bates, NR; Bathmann, U.; Beaugrand, G.; Brix, H.; Dye, S.; Edwards, M.; T. Furevik; Gangstø, R.

    2010-01-01

    The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the wor...

  19. Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

    OpenAIRE

    Qingzhu Gao; Wenquan Zhu; Schwartz, Mark W.; Hasbagan Ganjurjav; Yunfan Wan; Xiaobo Qin; Xin Ma; Williamson, Matthew A.; Yue Li

    2016-01-01

    Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with ...

  20. ON CORRELATING BIRD MIGRATION TRAJECTORY WITH CLIMATE CHANGES

    OpenAIRE

    Oleinik, Janaina; de Macedo, Jose Antonio Fernandes; Yuanjian, Wang Zufferey

    2009-01-01

    Climate changes are expected to affect bird migration in several aspects including timing changes, breeding and migration orientation. The correlation analysis of several climate conditions (e.g. temperature, wind, humidity, etc) and bird migration trajectory is the key for explaining bird behavior during migration. Moreover, the resulting correlation can be used for predicting new bird behavior according to climate changes. In this paper we propose an integrated solution for correlating bird...

  1. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  2. Climate Change, Agriculture, Poverty and Livelihoods: A Status Report

    OpenAIRE

    K. N. Ninan; Satyasiba Bedamatta

    2012-01-01

    This paper assesses the impact of climate change on Indian agriculture covering a cross section of crops, seasons and regions based on existing literature. The study notes that the impact of climate change will vary across crops, regions and climate change scenarios. The evidences indicate a decrease in production of crops in different parts of India with an increase in temperature. A number of studies indicate a probability of 10 % to 40% loss in crop production in India with increases in te...

  3. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  4. Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

  5. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  6. CO2 Increase: Questions Beyond Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Beckmann, G.; Klopries, B.

    1990-01-01

    The increase of the tropospheric C02 (carbon dioxide) concentration is considered by scientists all over the world to be an alarming signal, as becomes evident from the huge amount of literature on the subject. The so-called greenhouse-gas effect, or, more precisely, its anthropogenic component, is mainly caused by the C02 increase. However, other trace gases have also contributed their share. Far-reaching climatic changes, a temperature increase in the tropospheric air, especially in the po...

  7. Climate change - The Macedonia's First National Communication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change impacts, consequences and concerns of the international community; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Activities in the Republic of Macedonia, establishing the Climate Change Project Unit within the Ministry of Environment and Physical Planning and the National Climate Change Committee. Preparation of the Macedonia's First National Communications under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Analyzing on the thematic areas of the Nationals Communications. The inventory of greenhouse gases(GHG) emissions was prepared according to IPCC Guidelines (IPCC), taking into consideration the three main GHGs:carbondioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O). The main sources of CO2 emissions are the electricity production, the production and the transport. GHG abatement analysis and projections of emissions are prepared in accordance to the Macedonian economy and possibilities for development. The analysis of the energy sector is elaborated in a most advanced way, especially regarding the electricity production. According to the IS92a scenario (prepared by IPCC) the average annual temperature in Macedonia could arise for 4,6o C by 2100, and the average summer temperature could arise for 5.1o C. The average sum of precipitation will decrease for 6.3% in 2100, but the most alarming is the sum of precipitation in summer, which could decrease for 2.5%. Venerability assessment and adaptation measures are elaborated in the following sectors: agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water resources and human health. The National Action Plan sets out the objectives and initial points for undertaking measures, contributing to the reduction of GHG emissions at national level. (Author)

  8. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  9. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  10. Climate Change Adaptation Actions in Tirana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JAMARBER MALLTEZI

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Tirana has recently experienced changing weather patterns such as rising temperatures and occurrence of extreme weather events. Such events – in combination with a rapid increase of urban areas and impermeable cement covering the natural soil in the city – have caused increased flooding, riverside erosion, delayed traffic, increased spending for cooling during the summer, increased need for health services, and an urgent need to plan the city smartly. Tirana is preparing a set of Climate Change Adaptation Actions in order to manage the posed risks and adapt to climate change. The city administration should integrate climate change adaptation in their management and planning processes. This exercise was prepared by using the Climate Compass tool and included the vulnerability assessment of different sectors in the city, evaluated the risks posed to vulnerable target groups and proposed feasible adaptation options. It outlines mostly actions to be taken to manage risks and build climate resilience across essential public infrastructure and services. Such actions would require better land use planning to maintain – and where possible increase – the natural areas and leave the natural soil undisturbed. Key to success is integrating adaptation concepts into the city planning and development investments. The result is a novel approach and guidance to better integrate adaptation concepts in city planning and new technologies to prevent heat waves, flood risks in the city, etc.Administrators of the Tirana Municipality should keep in mind and integrate the climate change adaptationactions into daily planning and decision making for several sectors including urban planning, transport, public services, water infrastructure, emergency response, etc. in order to ensure sustainable development for the city.

  11. Changes in Dimethyl Sulfide Oceanic Distribution due to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cameron-Smith, P; Elliott, S; Maltrud, M; Erickson, D; Wingenter, O

    2011-02-16

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is one of the major precursors for aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer over much of the remote ocean. Here they report on coupled climate simulations with a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemical model for DMS distribution and fluxes using present-day and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. They find changes in zonal averaged DMS flux to the atmosphere of over 150% in the Southern Ocean. This is due to concurrent sea ice changes and ocean ecosystem composition shifts caused by changes in temperature, mixing, nutrient, and light regimes. The largest changes occur in a region already sensitive to climate change, so any resultant local CLAW/Gaia feedback of DMS on clouds, and thus radiative forcing, will be particularly important. A comparison of these results to prior studies shows that increasing model complexity is associted with reduced DMS emissions at the equator and increased emissions at high latitudes.

  12. Climatic change and security stakes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper explores the relationships between climate change and security. Potential threats from climate change, as a unique source of stress or together with other factors, to human security are first examined. Some of the most explicit examples illustrate this section: food security, water availability, vulnerability to extreme events and vulnerability of small islands States and coastal zones. By questioning the basic needs of some populations or at least aggravating their precariousness, such risks to human security could also raise global security concerns, which we examine in turn, along four directions: rural exodus with an impoverishment of displaced populations, local conflicts for the use of natural resources, diplomatic tensions and international conflicts, and propagation to initially-unaffected regions through migratory flows. (authors)

  13. Radiative Forcing of Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ramaswamy, V.; Boucher, Olivier; Haigh, J.; Hauglustaine, D.; Haywood, J.; Myhre, G.; Nakajima, Takahito; Shi, Guangyu; Solomon, S.; Betts, Robert E.; Charlson, R.; Chuang, C. C.; Daniel, J. S.; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Feichter, J.; Fuglestvedt, J.; Forster, P. M.; Ghan, Steven J.; Jones, A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Koch, D.; Land, C.; Lean, J.; Lohmann, Ulrike; Minschwaner, K.; Penner, Joyce E.; Roberts, D. L.; Rodhe, H.; Roelofs, G.-J.; Rotstayn, Leon D.; Schneider, T. L.; Schumann, U.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Schwartzkopf, M. D.; Shine, K. P.; Smith, Steven J.; Stevenson, D. S.; Stordal, F.; Tegen, I.; van Dorland, R.; Zhang, Y.; Srinivasan, J.; Joos, Fortunat

    2001-10-01

    Chapter 6 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Sections include: Executive Summary 6.1 Radiative Forcing 6.2 Forcing-Response Relationship 6.3 Well-Mixed Greenhouse Gases 6.4 Stratospheric Ozone 6.5 Radiative Forcing By Tropospheric Ozone 6.6 Indirect Forcings due to Chemistry 6.7 The Direct Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.8 The Indirect Radiative Forcing of Tropospheric Aerosols 6.9 Stratospheric Aerosols 6.10 Land-use Change (Surface Albedo Effect) 6.11 Solar Forcing of Climate 6.12 Global Warming Potentials hydrocarbons 6.13 Global Mean Radiative Forcings 6.14 The Geographical Distribution of the Radiative Forcings 6.15 Time Evolution of Radiative Forcings Appendix 6.1 Elements of Radiative Forcing Concept References.

  14. Making sense of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change has always occurred naturally but at a pace to which the earth has adapted well. Now, due to human activities like energy utilization and waste disposal, the earth is heating up much faster than earlier. Ecosystems, water resources, food sources, health, and human settlements are getting adversely affected. Floods and droughts are increasing, glaciers are melting, and disease is spreading. The problem is serious and it is time to act. Global consensus has been agreements; mitigation initiatives have been undertaken; hopes are up. The aim of this book is to raise the awareness of secondary school students about climate change and its impacts while enhancing their understanding of global responses. It includes a chapter specific to Indian conditions. Lucidly written and illustrated with anecdotes and visuals, this handbook will catalyse young minds into greater awareness, concern, and, hopefully, remedial action on this global threat

  15. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  16. The U.S. National Climate Assessment: The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, J. E.; Wuebbles, D. J.; Hayhoe, K.; Kunkel, K.; Stephens, G. L.; Thorne, P.; Wehner, M. F.; Willis, J. K.; Vose, R.

    2012-12-01

    The U.S. National Climate Assessment (NCA) draws upon the latest scientific understanding of climate and climate change, synthesizing recent advances in the understanding of the science of climate change, and providing a succinct overview of the past and projected effects of climate change on the United States. This presentation will provide an overview of draft findings from the 2013 NCA report chapter on the science of climate change, including observed trends and projected future climate changes for the United States. The chapter and the associated appendix discusses both natural- and human-induced forcings on the climate system, the resulting effects on temperature and precipitation, including the effects of natural variability, and examines shifts in the growing season, frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, sea level rise, ice cover, and ocean acidification. The chapter includes regional analyses, including evaluations for Alaska and Hawaii, and well as for various regions of the continental United States. We also developed a special appendix for the assessment on commonly asked questions about the science of climate change. The chapter provides a foundation for the entire NCA report, which evaluates climate change trends and impacts in each region of the United States and on various socioeconomic and ecological sectors. It is also a key contribution to international climate assessments, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, especially with respect to the state of knowledge of ongoing and projected changes of extreme events (heat waves, droughts, hurricanes, heavy precipitation) in the United States.

  17. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change<