WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change temperatures

  1. Cave temperatures and global climatic change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badino Giovanni

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available The physical processes that establish the cave temperature are briefly discussed, showing that cave temperature is generally strictly connected with the external climate. The Global Climatic changes can then influence also the underground climate. It is shown that the mountain thermal inertia causes a delay between the two climates and then a thermal unbalance between the cave and the atmosphere. As a consequence there is a net energy flux from the atmosphere to the mountain, larger than the geothermal one, which is deposited mainly in the epidermal parts of caves.

  2. Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janzen, F J

    1994-08-02

    Despite increasing concern over the possible impact of global temperature change, there is little empirical evidence of direct temperature effects on biotic interactions in natural systems. Clear assessment of the ecological and evolutionary impact of changing climatic temperature requires a natural system in which populations exhibit a direct unambiguous fitness response to thermal fluctuation. I monitored nests of a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) with temperature-dependent sex determination to investigate the causal relationship between local climatic variation in temperature and offspring sex ratio. Consistent with theoretical predictions, annual offspring sex ratio was highly correlated with mean July air temperature, validating concerns about the effect of climate change on population demography. This correlation implies that even modest increases in mean temperature (evolve rapidly enough to counteract the negative fitness consequences of rapid global temperature change. Populations of species with temperature-dependent sex determination may serve as ideal indicators of the biological impact of global temperature change.

  3. Climate Change Signal Analysis for Northeast Asian Surface Temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jeong-Hyeong LEE; Byungsoo KIM; Keon-Tae SOHN; Won-Tae KOWN; Seung-Ki MIN

    2005-01-01

    Climate change detection, attribution, and prediction were studied for the surface temperature in the Northeast Asian region using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and three coupled-model simulations from ECHAM4/OPYC3, HadCM3, and CCCma GCMs (Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis general circulation model). The Bayesian fingerprint approach was used to perform the detection and attribution test for the anthropogenic climate change signal associated with changes in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and sulfate aerosol (SO42-) concentrations for the Northeast Asian temperature. It was shown that there was a weak anthropogenic climate change signal in the Northeast Asian temperature change. The relative contribution of CO2 and SOl- effects to total temperature change in Northeast Asia was quantified from ECHAM4/OPYC3 and CCCma GCM simulations using analysis of variance. For the observed temperature change for the period of 1959-1998, the CO2 effect contributed 10%-21% of the total variance and the direct cooling effect of SO42- played a less important role (0% 7%) than the CO2effect. The prediction of surface temperature change was estimated from the second CO2+SO24- scenario run of ECHAM4/OPYC3 which has the least error in the simulation of the present-day temperature field near the Korean Peninsula. The result shows that the area-mean surface temperature near the Korean Peninsula will increase by about 1.1° by the 2040s relative to the 1990s.

  4. Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles.

    OpenAIRE

    Janzen, F. J.

    1994-01-01

    Despite increasing concern over the possible impact of global temperature change, there is little empirical evidence of direct temperature effects on biotic interactions in natural systems. Clear assessment of the ecological and evolutionary impact of changing climatic temperature requires a natural system in which populations exhibit a direct unambiguous fitness response to thermal fluctuation. I monitored nests of a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) with temperature-dependent ...

  5. Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R.

    2014-12-01

    Weather is the most significant factor affecting aircraft operations, accounting for 70-80% of passenger delays and costing airlines hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost revenue. Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-100% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a significant economic effect on the airline industry, leading to lower profits and higher passenger fares. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation.

  6. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  7. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change : From global mean temperature change to climate extremes and high impact weather.

    CERN Document Server

    CERN. Geneva

    2013-01-01

    This talk will describe how evidence has grown in recent years for a human influence on climate and explain how the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that it is extremely likely (>95% probability) that human influence on climate has been the dominant cause of the observed global-mean warming since the mid-20th century. The fingerprint of human activities has also been detected in warming of the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, and in changes in some climate extremes. The strengthening of evidence for the effects of human influence on climate extremes is in line with long-held basic understanding of the consequences of mean warming for temperature extremes and for atmospheric moisture. Despite such compelling evidence this does not mean that every instance of high impact weather can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, because climate variability is often a major factor in many locations, especially for rain...

  8. Large diurnal temperature range increases bird sensitivity to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Briga, Michael; Verhulst, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Climate variability is changing on multiple temporal scales, and little is known of the consequences of increases in short-term variability, particularly in endotherms. Using mortality data with high temporal resolution of zebra finches living in large outdoor aviaries (5 years, 359.220 bird-days),

  9. Changes in zonal surface temperature gradients and Walker circulations in a wide range of climates

    CERN Document Server

    Merlis, Timothy M

    2010-01-01

    Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The asymmetry in the tropical climate is generated by an imposed ocean energy flux, which does not vary with climate. The range of climates is simulated by modifying the optical thickness of an idealized longwave absorber (representing greenhouse gases). The zonal surface temperature gradient in low latitudes generally decreases as the climate warms in the idealized GCM simulations. A scaling relationship based on a two-term balance in the surface energy budget accounts for the changes in the zonally asymmetric component of the GCM-simulated surface temperature gradients. As in comprehensive simulations of climate change, the Walker circulation weakens as the climate warms in the idealized simulations. The wide range of climates allows a systematic test of energetic ar...

  10. A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Jana S.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Kammel, Leah E.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.

    2015-01-01

    Expected climatic changes in air temperature and precipitation patterns across the State of Wisconsin may alter future stream temperature and flow regimes. As a consequence of flow and temperature changes, the composition and distribution of fish species assemblages are expected to change. In an effort to gain a better understanding of how climatic changes may affect stream temperature, an approach was developed to predict and project daily summertime stream temperature under current and future climate conditions for 94,341 stream kilometers across Wisconsin. The approach uses a combination of static landscape characteristics and dynamic time-series climatic variables as input for an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) Model integrated with a Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) Model. Future climate scenarios are based on output from downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs). The SWB model provided a means to estimate the temporal variability in groundwater recharge and provided a mechanism to evaluate the effect of changing air temperature and precipitation on groundwater recharge and soil moisture. The Integrated Soil-Water-Balance and Artificial Neural Network version 1 (SWB-ANNv1) Model was used to simulate daily summertime stream temperature under current (1990–2008) climate and explained 76 percent of the variation in the daily mean based on validation at 67 independent sites. Results were summarized as July mean water temperature, and individual stream segments were classified by thermal class (cold, cold transition, warm transition, and warm) for comparison of current (1990–2008) with future climate conditions.

  11. Reconciling anthropogenic climate change with observed temperature 1998-2008.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaufmann, Robert K; Kauppi, Heikki; Mann, Michael L; Stock, James H

    2011-07-19

    Given the widely noted increase in the warming effects of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, it has been unclear why global surface temperatures did not rise between 1998 and 2008. We find that this hiatus in warming coincides with a period of little increase in the sum of anthropogenic and natural forcings. Declining solar insolation as part of a normal eleven-year cycle, and a cyclical change from an El Nino to a La Nina dominate our measure of anthropogenic effects because rapid growth in short-lived sulfur emissions partially offsets rising greenhouse gas concentrations. As such, we find that recent global temperature records are consistent with the existing understanding of the relationship among global surface temperature, internal variability, and radiative forcing, which includes anthropogenic factors with well known warming and cooling effects.

  12. Soil erosion under climate change: simulatingthe response of temperature and rainfall changes in three UK catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampalini, Rossano; Walker-Springett, Kate J.; Constantine, José Antonio; Hales, Tristram C.

    2015-04-01

    Soil erosion by water cost in environmental damages across the Great Britain is estimated in over £200m (2014 GBP) each year and could increase for the effect of climate change. Assessing the potential for increased climate-driven soil erosion, due to the several water processes involved (e.g., infiltration excess, return flow, direct precipitation onto saturated soil),is recognizedas a complex task. Climate change can have a positive and direct effect on soil erosionsuch the case of increasing rainfall in amount and intensity, or an indirect effect through the variation of the atmospheric CO2 level, which can improve plant productivityandwater infiltration capacity of soil reducing the likelihood of soil erosion. Changes in vegetation patterns and typologies with a different protection effect can lead also the soil system to dramatic changes in soil erosion rates, potentially amplifying or ameliorating the direct effects of climate change.Climate, vegetation and soil erosion are thus connected and several feedback effects could be accounted in the study of global change. Understanding these interactions may be a primary goal for clarifying the impact of global change on soil erosion and its consequences on related soil functions such as water and organic carbon storage support to vegetation and agricultural production. In this research, focused on three UK catchments (i.e. Conwy, 627 km2, Wales; Ehen, 225 km2, England; and Dee, 2100 km2, Scotland), we simulated soil erosionapplying SRES climatic scenarios(IPCC, 2000) for different CO2 emission levels. We modelled using Pesera "The Pan European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment" (Kirkby et al., 2004), a model for vegetation growing and soil erosion evaluation at regional scale. For each catchment,we realised a sensitivity - analysis - like test investigating different increments in temperature and rainfall, then, we compared the results of the SRES scenarios with the issues of the parametric sensitivity analysis. The

  13. Assessing the Influence of Precipitation on Diurnal Temperature Range Changes: Implications for Climate Change Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Hoof, C.; Garreaud, R.

    2014-12-01

    . Braganza, D.J. Karoly, and J.M. Arblaster. Diurnal temperature range as an index of global climate change during the twentieth century. Geophysical Research Letters, 31:1-4, 2004. [2] A. Dai, A.D. Del Genio, and I.Y. Fung. Clouds, precipitation and temperature range. Nature, 386:665-666, 1997.

  14. Climate change and river temperature sensitivity to warmer nighttime vs. warmer daytime air temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diabat, M.; Haggerty, R.; Wondzell, S. M.

    2011-12-01

    , and only the lower 2 rkm warmed by at least 1.1 °C with the warmer night case. The greatest increases in the daily mean temperature occurred under the daytime case. The greatest increase in the daily maxima occurred under the nighttime case. However, equivalent increases in daily minima were found under all cases. The findings emphasize the effect of timing of atmospheric warming on river temperature. In particular, a nighttime increase in air temperature increases river temperature more than an equivalent daytime increase in air temperature. This happens because the heat budget of a river at nighttime is dominated by differences in air and river temperatures, whereas the heat budget of a river in the day time is dominated by incoming shortwave radiation which is not projected to change significantly under a warmer climate.

  15. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  16. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  17. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selbig, William R., E-mail: wrselbig@usgs.gov

    2015-07-15

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. - Highlights: • A stream temperature model was calibrated for three streams in northern Wisconsin. • The effect of climate change on stream temperature was simulated in each stream. • Annual average stream temperature was projected to rise from 1 to 3 °C by 2100. • Forecasts of stream temperature exceeded optimal ranges for brook trout.

  18. Climate change, global warming and coral reefs: modelling the effects of temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C

    2008-10-01

    Climate change and global warming have severe consequences for the survival of scleractinian (reef-building) corals and their associated ecosystems. This review summarizes recent literature on the influence of temperature on coral growth, coral bleaching, and modelling the effects of high temperature on corals. Satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) and coral bleaching information available on the internet is an important tool in monitoring and modelling coral responses to temperature. Within the narrow temperature range for coral growth, corals can respond to rate of temperature change as well as to temperature per se. We need to continue to develop models of how non-steady-state processes such as global warming and climate change will affect coral reefs.

  19. Past temperature reconstructions from deep ice cores: relevance for future climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Masson-Delmotte

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Ice cores provide unique archives of past climate and environmental changes based only on physical processes. Quantitative temperature reconstructions are essential for the comparison between ice core records and climate models. We give an overview of the methods that have been developed to reconstruct past local temperatures from deep ice cores and highlight several points that are relevant for future climate change. We first analyse the long term fluctuations of temperature as depicted in the long Antarctic record from EPICA Dome C. The long term imprint of obliquity changes in the EPICA Dome C record is highlighted and compared to simulations conducted with the ECBILT-CLIO intermediate complexity climate model. We discuss the comparison between the current interglacial period and the long interglacial corresponding to marine isotopic stage 11, ~400 kyr BP. Previous studies had focused on the role of precession and the thresholds required to induce glacial inceptions. We suggest that, due to the low eccentricity configuration of MIS 11 and the Holocene, the effect of precession on the incoming solar radiation is damped and that changes in obliquity must be taken into account. The EPICA Dome C alignment of terminations I and VI published in 2004 corresponds to a phasing of the obliquity signals. A conjunction of low obliquity and minimum northern hemisphere summer insolation is not found in the next tens of thousand years, supporting the idea of an unusually long interglacial ahead. As a second point relevant for future climate change, we discuss the magnitude and rate of change of past temperatures reconstructed from Greenland (NorthGRIP and Antarctic (Dome C ice cores. Past episodes of temperatures above the present-day values by up to 5°C are recorded at both locations during the penultimate interglacial period. The rate of polar warming simulated by coupled climate models forced by a CO2 increase of 1% per year is compared to ice

  20. Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

    2014-04-01

    Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction.

  1. Changing Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe's Climate of the 20th Century

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klein Tank, Albertus Maria Gerardus

    2004-01-01

    This thesis aims at increasing the knowledge on past changes in extremes through the analysis of historical records of observations at meteorological stations. The key question addressed is: How did the extremes of daily surface air temperature and precipitation change in Europe's climate of the

  2. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at 2030 using spatially varying ozone-temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quali...

  3. A model for evaluating stream temperature response to climate change scenarios in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Stewart, Jana S.; Buchwald, Cheryl A.; Mitro, Matthew G.; Lyons, John D.; Greb, Steven

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change is expected to alter temperature and flow regimes for streams in Wisconsin over the coming decades. Stream temperature will be influenced not only by the predicted increases in average air temperature, but also by changes in baseflow due to changes in precipitation patterns and amounts. In order to evaluate future stream temperature and flow regimes in Wisconsin, we have integrated two existing models in order to generate a water temperature time series at a regional scale for thousands of stream reaches where site-specific temperature observations do not exist. The approach uses the US Geological Survey (USGS) Soil-Water-Balance (SWB) model, along with a recalibrated version of an existing artificial neural network (ANN) stream temperature model. The ANN model simulates stream temperatures on the basis of landscape variables such as land use and soil type, and also includes climate variables such as air temperature and precipitation amounts. The existing ANN model includes a landscape variable called DARCY designed to reflect the potential for groundwater recharge in the contributing area for a stream segment. SWB tracks soil-moisture and potential recharge at a daily time step, providing a way to link changing climate patterns and precipitation amounts over time to baseflow volumes, and presumably to stream temperatures. The recalibrated ANN incorporates SWB-derived estimates of potential recharge to supplement the static estimates of groundwater flow potential derived from a topographically based model (DARCY). SWB and the recalibrated ANN will be supplied with climate drivers from a suite of general circulation models and emissions scenarios, enabling resource managers to evaluate possible changes in stream temperature regimes for Wisconsin.

  4. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... events, such as hurricanes and wildfires. These can cause death, injuries, stress, and mental health problems. Researchers are studying the best ways to lessen climate change and reduce its impact on our health. NIH: ...

  5. Modeling the impact of changes in Atlantic sea surface temperature on the climate of West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adeniyi, Mojisola O.

    2016-08-01

    This study assesses the impacts of warming/cooling of the Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) on the climate of West Africa using Version 4.4 of Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4) of International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. The 1-2 K cooling and warming of the Atlantic SST both result in tripole temperature and precipitation change structure, having a northwest-southeast orientation over West Africa. Findings reveal that the responses of precipitation and temperature to the Atlantic SST cooling are opposite to those for the Atlantic SST warming and these responses intensify with increased warming/cooling of the Atlantic SST. The structure of the change in climate is attributed to the response of atmospheric/soil moisture gradient and orientation of orography in West Africa.

  6. Climatic change of summer temperature and precipitation in the Alpine region - a statistical-dynamical assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heimann, D.; Sept, V.

    1998-12-01

    Climatic changes in the Alpine region due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are assessed by using statistical-dynamical downscaling. The downscaling procedure is applied to two 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2071-2100, summer months only) of the output of a transient coupled ocean/atmosphere climate scenario simulation. The downscaling results for the present-day climate are in sufficient agreement with observations. The estimated regional climate change during the next 100 years shows a general warming. The mean summer temperatures increase by about 3 to more than 5 Kelvin. The most intense climatic warming is predicted in the western parts of the Alps. The amount of summer precipitation decreases in most parts of central Europe by more than 20 percent. Only over the Adriatic area and parts of eastern central Europe an increase in precipitation is simulated. The results are compared with observed trends and results of regional climate change simulations of other authors. The observed trends and the majority of the simulated trends agree with our results. However, there are also climate change estimates which completely contradict with ours. (orig.) 29 refs.

  7. Climate Dynamics and Global Change: Temperature, Precipitation, and Circulation in GFDL Aqua-Planet Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinh, T.; Fueglistaler, S.

    2015-12-01

    Numerical experiments are carried out using the GFDL General Circulation Model to assess climate sensitivity associated with CO2 increase and surface warming. This work is motivated by the calculation by Cess and Potter (1988, JGR), who proposed that surface temperature perturbations may be used as a surrogate for climate change induced by CO2 increase.We compare climatic changes due to CO2 increase in slab-ocean simulations with changes forced by surface warming in prescribed-surface-temperature simulations with fixed CO2 (Cess-type experiments). We found that slab-ocean and Cess-type experiments give the same rates of change per degree surface warming for the global atmosphere temperature and circulation strength. However, the global precipitation increases almost twice as slowly in slab-ocean runs (1.5%/K) when compared to Cess-type runs (2.8%/K). Therefore, we caution that Cess-type experiments may not be suitable for studying global precipitation change under climate change.

  8. Herbivory in global climate change research: direct effects of rising temperature on insect herbivores

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bale, J.S.; Masters, G.J.; Hodkinson, I.D.; Awmack, C.; Bezemer, T.M.; Brown, V.K.; Butterfield, J.; Buse, A.; Coulson, J.C.; Farrar, J.; Good, J.E.G.; Harrington, R.; Hartley, S.; Jones, T.H.; Lindroth, R.L.; Press, M.C.; Symrnioudis, I.; Watt, A.D.; Whittaker, J.B.

    2002-01-01

    This review examines the direct effects of climate change on insect herbivores. Temperature is identified as the dominant abiotic factor directly affecting herbivorous insects. There is little evidence of any direct effects Of CO2 or UVB. Direct impacts of precipitation have been largely neglected i

  9. Climate changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in an alpine grassland of Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zengyun; Li, Qingxiang; Chen, Xi; Teng, Zhidong; Chen, Changchun; Yin, Gang; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-11-01

    The natural ecosystem in Central Asia is sensitive and vulnerable to the arid and semiarid climate variations, especially the climate extreme events. However, the climate extreme events in this area are still unclear. Therefore, this study analyzed the climate variability in the temperature and precipitation extreme events in an alpine grassland (Bayanbuluk) of Central Asia based on the daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature, and daily precipitation from 1958 to 2012. Statistically significant ( p < 0.01) increasing trends were found in the minimum temperature, maximum temperature at annual, and seasonal time scales except the winter maximum temperature. In the seasonal changes, the winter temperature had the largest contribution to the annual warming. Further, there appeared increasing trends for the warm nights and the warm days and decreasing trends for the cool nights and the cool days at a 99 % confidence level. These trends directly resulted in an increasing trend for the growing season length (GSL) which could have positively influence on the vegetation productivity. For the precipitation, it displayed an increasing trend for the annual precipitation although it was not significant. And the summer precipitation had the same variations as the annual precipitation which indicated that the precipitation in summer made the biggest contribution to the annual precipitation than the other three seasons. The winter precipitation had a significant increasing trend (1.49 mm/10a) and a decreasing trend was found in spring. We also found that the precipitation of the very wet days mainly contributes to the annual precipitation with the trend of 4.5 mm/10a. The maximum 1-day precipitation and the heavy precipitation days only had slight increasing trend. A sharp decreasing trend was found before the early 1980s, and then becoming increase for the above three precipitation indexes. The climate experienced a warm-wet abrupt climate change in the 1980s

  10. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  11. Climate Change and Fetal Health: The Impacts of Exposure to Extreme Temperatures in New York City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health. Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES). Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health. Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature 25 F and 85 F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070- 2099 period of 4.6 g in the business-as-usual scenario. Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES.

  12. Recent climate change in Japan – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Domroes

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper temperature series of Japan were statistically analysed in order to answer the question whether recent climate change can be proved for Japan; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The observations in Japan started for some stations in the 1870s, 59 stations are available since 1901, 136 stations since 1959. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: Gaussian binominal low-pass filter (30 yr, trend analysis (linear regression model including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance and the non-parametric, non-linear trend test according to MANN (MANN's Q. According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Japan is clearly shown for temperature over the 100 yr (1901–2000: Annual mean temperatures increased at all stations from 0.35 (Hakodate to 2.95°C (Tokyo. The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and also increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations. As far as temperatures are concerned, a distinct increase could be shown over the period 1901–2000 with a strong trend of warming over the more recent period 1976–2000.

  13. Long-term sea surface temperature and climate change in the Australian-New Zealand region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrows, Timothy T.; Juggins, Steve; de Deckker, Patrick; Calvo, Eva; Pelejero, Carles

    2007-06-01

    We compile and compare data for the last 150,000 years from four deep-sea cores in the midlatitude zone of the Southern Hemisphere. We recalculate sea surface temperature estimates derived from foraminifera and compare these with estimates derived from alkenones and magnesium/calcium ratios in foraminiferal carbonate and with accompanying sedimentological and pollen records on a common absolute timescale. Using a stack of the highest-resolution records, we find that first-order climate change occurs in concert with changes in insolation in the Northern Hemisphere. Glacier extent and inferred vegetation changes in Australia and New Zealand vary in tandem with sea surface temperatures, signifying close links between oceanic and terrestrial temperature. In the Southern Ocean, rapid temperature change of the order of 6°C occurs within a few centuries and appears to have played an important role in midlatitude climate change. Sea surface temperature changes over longer periods closely match proxy temperature records from Antarctic ice cores. Warm events correlate with Antarctic events A1-A4 and appear to occur just before Dansgaard-Oeschger events 8, 12, 14, and 17 in Greenland.

  14. Climate Change: A New Metric to Measure Changes in the Frequency of Extreme Temperatures using Record Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munasinghe, L.; Jun, T.; Rind, D. H.

    2012-01-01

    Consensus on global warming is the result of multiple and varying lines of evidence, and one key ramification is the increase in frequency of extreme climate events including record high temperatures. Here we develop a metric- called "record equivalent draws" (RED)-based on record high (low) temperature observations, and show that changes in RED approximate changes in the likelihood of extreme high (low) temperatures. Since we also show that this metric is independent of the specifics of the underlying temperature distributions, RED estimates can be aggregated across different climates to provide a genuinely global assessment of climate change. Using data on monthly average temperatures across the global landmass we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures increased 10-fold between the first three decades of the last century (1900-1929) and the most recent decade (1999-2008). A more disaggregated analysis shows that the increase in frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the tropics than in higher latitudes, a pattern that is not indicated by changes in mean temperature. Our RED estimates also suggest concurrent increases in the frequency of both extreme high and extreme low temperatures during 2002-2008, a period when we observe a plateauing of global mean temperature. Using daily extreme temperature observations, we find that the frequency of extreme high temperatures is greater in the daily minimum temperature time-series compared to the daily maximum temperature time-series. There is no such observable difference in the frequency of extreme low temperatures between the daily minimum and daily maximum.

  15. A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: What do temperature trends portend?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pederson, G.T.; Graumlich, L.J.; Fagre, D.B.; Kipfer, T.; Muhlfeld, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly understood. Thus, the objectives of this work were to: (1) describe rates of change in temperature averages and extremes for western Montana, a region containing sensitive resources and ecosystems, (2) investigate associations between Montana temperature change to hemispheric and global temperature change, (3) provide climate analysis tools for land and resource managers responsible for researching and maintaining renewable resources, habitat, and threatened/endangered species and (4) integrate our findings into a more general assessment of climate impacts on ecosystem processes and services over the past century. Over 100 years of daily and monthly temperature data collected in western Montana, USA are analyzed for long-term changes in seasonal averages and daily extremes. In particular, variability and trends in temperature above or below ecologically and socially meaningful thresholds within this region (e.g., -17.8??C (0??F), 0??C (32??F), and 32.2??C (90??F)) are assessed. The daily temperature time series reveal extremely cold days (??? -17.8??C) terminate on average 20 days earlier and decline in number, whereas extremely hot days (???32??C) show a three-fold increase in number and a 24-day increase in seasonal window during which they occur. Results show that regionally important thresholds have been exceeded, the most recent of which include the timing and number of the 0??C freeze/thaw temperatures during spring and fall. Finally, we close with a discussion on the implications for Montana's ecosystems. Special attention is given to critical processes that respond non-linearly as temperatures exceed critical thresholds, and have positive feedbacks that amplify the changes. ?? Springer Science + Business Media B

  16. Recent climate change in Japan – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Schaefer

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper temperature series of Japan were statistically analysed in order to answer the question whether recent climate change can be proved for Japan; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The observations in Japan started for some stations in the 1870s, 59 stations are available since 1901, 136 stations since 1959. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: Gaussian binominal low-pass filter (30 yr, trend analysis (linear regression model including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance and the non-parametric, non-linear trend test according to MANN (MANN's Q. According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Japan is clearly shown for temperature over the 100 yr (1901–2000: Annual mean temperatures increased at all stations from 0.35 (Hakodate to 2.95°C (Tokyo. The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and also increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations.

  17. Modeling the impacts of climate change on stream water temperature across scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, C.; Caldwell, P. V.; Cohen, E.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.

    2015-12-01

    Water temperature is a critical variable to aquatic ecosystems because it controls metabolic rates and the distribution of aquatic organisms. Therefore, understanding the impacts of future climate on stream water temperature is relevant to sustainable management of water resources. Empirical models based on the statistical relation between air and steam water temperature offer a powerful tool for prediction at large scales. We will demonstrate how simple linear regression models based on short-term historical stream temperature (ts) observations and readily available interpolated air temperature (ta) estimates can be used for rapid assessment of historical and future changes in ts. This methodology was applied to 61 sites in the Southeast region of the US. We found that between 2011 and 2060, all sites were projected to experience increases in ts under the three evaluated climate projections (mean of +0.41 °C per decade). We also developed continental scale models to predict mean and maximum ts in ungauged locations across the US. The models linearly describe site relationships between monthly mean and maximum ta and ts as a function of climatic, hydrologic, and land cover variables. The empirical models were derived using data from 171 reference sites. These sites drain areas spanning four orders of magnitude and are located in 32 states and 16 hydrologic regions. Model performances yielded average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients between 0.78 and 0.85. These models were incorporated into the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) Ecosystem Services Model developed by the U.S. Forest Service to predict mean and maximum ts under different climatic projections and land cover changes at the USGS 8 digit hydrologic unit code watershed resolution across the US. The results identify regions in the country where significant increases in ts may occur, potentially causing stress to aquatic ecosystems as climate change progresses.

  18. Connecting climate model projections of global temperature change with the real world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Ed; Sutton, Rowan

    2016-04-01

    Current state-of-the-art global climate models produce different values for Earth's mean temperature. When comparing simulations with each other and with observations it is standard practice to compare temperature anomalies with respect to a reference period. It is not always appreciated that the choice of reference period can affect conclusions, both about the skill of simulations of past climate, and about the magnitude of expected future changes in climate. We discuss some of the key issues that arise when using anomalies relative to a reference period to generate climate projections and highlight that there is no perfect choice of reference period. When evaluating models against observations, a long reference period should generally be used, but how long depends on the quality of the observations available. The IPCC AR5 choice to use a 1986-2005 reference period for future global temperature projections was reasonable, but a case-by-case approach is needed for different purposes and when assessing projections of different climate variables. Finally, we recommend that any studies that involve the use of a reference period should explicitly examine the robustness of the conclusions to alternative choices.

  19. Global and regional temperature-change potentials for near-term climate forcers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. J. Collins

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx, volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide. We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs and global temperature change potentials (GTPs. For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs. The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20–30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

  20. Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, W.J.; Fry, M.M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the climate effects of the emissions of near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds and carbon monoxide). We calculate the global climate metrics: global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs). For the aerosols these metrics are simply time-dependent scalings of the equilibrium radiative forcings. The GTPs decrease more rapidly with time than the GWPs. The aerosol forcings and hence climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region. The metrics for ozone precursors include the effects on the methane lifetime. The impacts via methane are particularly important for the 20 yr GTPs. Emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other Northern Hemisphere regions. The analysis is further extended by examining the temperature-change impacts in 4 latitude bands, and calculating absolute regional temperature-change potentials (ARTPs). The latitudinal pattern of the temperature response does not directly follow the pattern of the diagnosed radiative forcing. We find that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to BC emissions from South Asia. The northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions.

  1. Complex interactions between climate change and toxicants: evidence that temperature variability increases sensitivity to cadmium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kimberly, David A; Salice, Christopher J

    2014-07-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that global climate change will have significant impacts on environmental conditions including potential effects on sensitivity of organisms to environmental contaminants. The objective of this study was to test the climate-induced toxicant sensitivity (CITS) hypothesis in which acclimation to altered climate parameters increases toxicant sensitivity. Adult Physa pomilia snails were acclimated to a near optimal 22 °C or a high-normal 28 °C for 28 days. After 28 days, snails from each temperature group were challenged with either low (150 μg/L) or high (300 μg/L) cadmium at each temperature (28 or 22 °C). In contrast to the CITS hypothesis, we found that acclimation temperature did not have a strong influence on cadmium sensitivity except at the high cadmium test concentration where snails acclimated to 28 °C were more cadmium tolerant. However, snails that experienced a switch in temperature for the cadmium challenge, regardless of the switch direction, were the most sensitive to cadmium. Within the snails that were switched between temperatures, snails acclimated at 28 °C and then exposed to high cadmium at 22 °C exhibited significantly greater mortality than those snails acclimated to 22 °C and then exposed to cadmium at 28 °C. Our results point to the importance of temperature variability in increasing toxicant sensitivity but also suggest a potentially complex cost of temperature acclimation. Broadly, the type of temporal stressor exposures we simulated may reduce overall plasticity in responses to stress ultimately rendering populations more vulnerable to adverse effects.

  2. Interpreting Recent Global-Mean Temperature Changes in the Lower Stratosphere Simulated by Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, M. A.; Zhou, T.; Martin, W. G. K.; Song, H.; Wang, S.; Nazarenko, L.; Lo, K. W. K.

    2014-12-01

    It has been suggested that state-of-the-art climate models, both with interactive chemistry and without interactive chemistry (CCMVal-2 and CMIP5) do not reproduce the observed lower stratosphere temperature anomalies that are observed by satellite microwave sounding instruments. We find that making two changes in the analysis can eliminate this disagreement. One is a change in the definition of the temperature anomalies as being zero for the 4-year mean (1979-1982) at the beginning of the data and modeling analysis period. Such a definition of the zero temperature anomaly does not take into proper account that observations over a relatively short period represent a single realization of several possible climate states, and thus this zero anomaly definition can be misleading when comparing anomalies from observations and models. The other change is our taking into account all CMIP-5 and CCMVal-2 model runs that ran realistic scenarios for the period 1979-2005. With these two changes in the analysis, we conclude that temperature changes from both CMIP-5 and CCMVal-2 models agree well with MSU-4 observations over the period 1979-2005.

  3. Climate change uncertainty for daily minimum and maximum temperatures: a model inter-comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lobell, D; Bonfils, C; Duffy, P

    2006-11-09

    Several impacts of climate change may depend more on changes in mean daily minimum (T{sub min}) or maximum (T{sub max}) temperatures than daily averages. To evaluate uncertainties in these variables, we compared projections of T{sub min} and T{sub max} changes by 2046-2065 for 12 climate models under an A2 emission scenario. Average modeled changes in T{sub max} were slightly lower in most locations than T{sub min}, consistent with historical trends exhibiting a reduction in diurnal temperature ranges. However, while average changes in T{sub min} and T{sub max} were similar, the inter-model variability of T{sub min} and T{sub max} projections exhibited substantial differences. For example, inter-model standard deviations of June-August T{sub max} changes were more than 50% greater than for T{sub min} throughout much of North America, Europe, and Asia. Model differences in cloud changes, which exert relatively greater influence on T{sub max} during summer and T{sub min} during winter, were identified as the main source of uncertainty disparities. These results highlight the importance of considering separately projections for T{sub max} and T{sub min} when assessing climate change impacts, even in cases where average projected changes are similar. In addition, impacts that are most sensitive to summertime T{sub min} or wintertime T{sub max} may be more predictable than suggested by analyses using only projections of daily average temperatures.

  4. Limits to global and Australian temperature change this century based on expert judgment of climate sensitivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grose, Michael R.; Colman, Robert; Bhend, Jonas; Moise, Aurel F.

    2016-07-01

    The projected warming of surface air temperature at the global and regional scale by the end of the century is directly related to emissions and Earth's climate sensitivity. Projections are typically produced using an ensemble of climate models such as CMIP5, however the range of climate sensitivity in models doesn't cover the entire range considered plausible by expert judgment. Of particular interest from a risk-management perspective is the lower impact outcome associated with low climate sensitivity and the low-probability, high-impact outcomes associated with the top of the range. Here we scale climate model output to the limits of expert judgment of climate sensitivity to explore these limits. This scaling indicates an expanded range of projected change for each emissions pathway, including a much higher upper bound for both the globe and Australia. We find the possibility of exceeding a warming of 2 °C since pre-industrial is projected under high emissions for every model even scaled to the lowest estimate of sensitivity, and is possible under low emissions under most estimates of sensitivity. Although these are not quantitative projections, the results may be useful to inform thinking about the limits to change until the sensitivity can be more reliably constrained, or this expanded range of possibilities can be explored in a more formal way. When viewing climate projections, accounting for these low-probability but high-impact outcomes in a risk management approach can complement the focus on the likely range of projections. They can also highlight the scale of the potential reduction in range of projections, should tight constraints on climate sensitivity be established by future research.

  5. What matters most: Are summer stream temperatures more sensitive to changing air temperature, changing discharge, or changing riparian vegetation under future climates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diabat, M.; Haggerty, R.; Wondzell, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    We investigated stream temperature responses to changes in both air temperature and stream discharge projected for 2040-2060 from downscaled GCMs and changes in the height and canopy density of streamside vegetation. We used Heat Source© calibrated for a 37 km section of the Middle Fork John Day River located in Oregon, USA. The analysis used the multiple-variable-at-a-time (MVAT) approach to simulate various combinations of changes: 3 levels of air warming, 5 levels of stream flow (higher and lower discharges), and 6 types of streamside vegetation. Preliminary results show that, under current discharge and riparian vegetation conditions, projected 2 to 4 °C increase in air temperature will increase the 7-day Average Daily Maximum Temperature (7dADM) by 1 to 2 °C. Changing stream discharge by ±30% changes stream temperature by ±0.5 °C, and the influence of changing discharge is greatest when the stream is poorly shaded. In contrast, the 7dADM could change by as much as 11°C with changes in riparian vegetation from unshaded conditions to heavily shaded conditions along the study section. The most heavily shaded simulations used uniformly dense riparian vegetation over the full 37-km reach, and this vegetation was composed of the tallest trees and densest canopies that can currently occur within the study reach. While this simulation represents an extreme case, it does suggest that managing riparian vegetation to substantially increase stream shade could decrease 7dADM temperatures relative to current temperatures, even under future climates when mean air temperatures have increased from 2 to 4 °C.

  6. Seasonal variations in aridity and temperature characterize changing climate during the last deglaciation in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikes, E. L.; Schiraldi, B.; Medeiros, P. M.; Augustinus, P. M.; Wilmshurst, J.; Freeman, K. H.

    2012-12-01

    Variable responses among paleoproxies resulting in different interpretations of past climate change from different proxy records can occur because seasonality effects on ecosystems and their resultant proxies imparts seasonal biased and consequently, differing records of climatic events. Deconvolving the response of multiple climate proxies to different environmental triggers, in different depositional environments requires tight stratigraphic correlation. In Northern New Zealand, frequent, widespread, and well dated, late Quaternary tephra provide a single chronostratigraphy across different depositional environments and means the relative timing among sites can be particularly well constrained. We compare a multi-proxy terrestrial record of temperature and aridity based on biomarkers and pollen in a core from Onepoto, a maar lake from the Auckland region of New Zealand to new sea surface temperature (SST) records based on alkenones and Mg/Ca in Globogerina bulloides from marine core JPC 87 in the nearby Bay of Plenty. Pollen assemblages in New Zealand are most strongly affected by the winter temperature minima and precipitation, foraminifera bloom in early spring, and alkenone producers bloom in early summer. Their temperature estimates can be expected to be weighted by these seasons. The pollen based temperatures and two SST records all document cooler conditions in the glaciation. However, although both SST proxies show a 3 degree C warming from the glaciation to the Holocene, the absolute temperatures are offset by almost 3 C with alkenone glacial SST ~18 C and Holocene, ~21 C whereas foraminifera- based SSTS are ~16 C and ~18 C respectively. Pollen reconstructions suggest glacial T of ~8 C and Holocene 14C with a 6 C change from the last glaciation to the early Holocene in northern New Zealand. Additionally, the marine records initiate warming at ~21ka whereas the terrestrial record warms ~3kyr later at 18ka. Terrestrial biomarker-biomass burning indicators

  7. Extremes temperatures and enthalpy in Finland and Sweden in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venaelaeinen, A.; Saku, S.; Jylhae, K. (Finnish Meteorological Institute (Finland)); Nikulin, G.; Kjellstroem, E.; Baerring, L. (Swedish Meteorological Institute (Sweden))

    2009-06-15

    Though risks caused by harsh weather conditions are taken into account in the planning of nuclear power plants, some exceptional weather events or combination of different events may prevent normal power operation and simultaneously endanger safe shutdown of the plant. Extreme weather events could influence, for example, the external power grid connection, emergency diesel generators (blockage of air intakes), ventilation and cooling of electric and electronics equipment rooms and the seawater intake. Due to the influence of an intensified greenhouse effect the climate is changing rapidly during the coming decades and this change is expected to have an influence also on the occurrence of extreme weather events. In this report we have examined extreme temperatures. Enthalpy is a parameter that combines air temperature and air humidity and it is used in the design of air conditioning systems. Therefore, we have included also return levels of enthalpy in our analysis. The influence of climate change on extreme temperatures is analysed based on regional climate model simulations. The reoccurrence times of high temperatures combined with high air humidity was analysed based on measurements made at five Finnish and three Swedish meteorological stations. Based on the observational records we find the 10 year return level of daily maximum temperature to be around 32 deg. C and the 100 year return level around 35 deg. C. If we look the return levels of warm and humid conditions then for example in Helsinki the 10 year return level of one week mean temperature in case mean air humidity is above 80% is 20.1 deg. C. The 10 year return level of daily maximum enthalpy is around 60 kJ/kg and the 100 year return level almost 70 kJ/kg. According to the climate model simulations the largest increase of 50-year return level of daily maximum temperature is found in southern Sweden and south-western Finland. By the end of this century the increase can be 3-5 deg. C. The largest change

  8. Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Cecil, L. DeWayne

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

  9. Response of microalgae to elevated CO2 and temperature: impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei; Xu, Xiaoguang; Fujibayashi, Megumu; Niu, Qigui; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Nishimura, Osamu

    2016-10-01

    To estimate the combined effects of elevated CO2 and temperature on microalgae, three typical and worldwide freshwater species, the green alga Scenedesmus acuminatus, the diatom Cyclotella meneghiniana, and the cyanobacterium Microcystis aeruginosa, as well as mixes of these three species were continuously cultured in controlled environment chambers with CO2 at 390 and 1000 ppm and temperatures of 20, 25, and 30 °C. CO2 and temperature significantly affected the production of microalgae. The cell productivity increased under elevated CO2 and temperature. Although the green alga dominated in the mixed culture within all CO2 and temperature conditions, rising temperature and CO2 intensified the competition of the cyanobacterium with other microalgae. CO2 affected the extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) characteristics of the green alga and the cyanobacterium. Elevated CO2 induced the generation of humic substances in the EPS fractions of the green alga, the cyanobacterium, and the mixed culture. The extracellular carbohydrates of the diatom and the extracellular proteins of the cyanobacterium increased with elevated CO2 and temperature, while the extracellular carbohydrates and proteins of the green alga and the mixes increased under elevated CO2 and temperature. There were synergistic effects of CO2 and temperature on the productivity and the EPS of microalgae. Climate change related CO2 and temperature increases will promote autochthonous organic carbon production in aquatic ecosystems and facilitate the proliferation of cyanobacteria, which potentially changes the carbon cycling and undermines the functioning of ecosystems.

  10. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  11. Global and Regional Temperature-change Potentials for Near-term Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, W.J.; Fry, M. M.; Yu, H.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shindell, D. T.; West, J. J.

    2013-01-01

    The emissions of reactive gases and aerosols can affect climate through the burdens of ozone, methane and aerosols, having both cooling and warming effects. These species are generally referred to near-term climate forcers (NTCFs) or short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs), because of their short atmospheric residence time. The mitigation of these would be attractive for both air quality and climate on a 30-year timescale, provided it is not at the expense of CO2 mitigation. In this study we examine the climate effects of the emissions of NTCFs from 4 continental regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia) using results from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model simulations. We address 3 aerosol species (sulphate, particulate organic matter and black carbon - BC) and 4 ozone precursors (methane, reactive nitrogen oxides - NOx, volatile organic compounds VOC, and carbon monoxide - CO). For the aerosols the global warming potentials (GWPs) and global temperature change potentials (GTPs) are simply time-dependent scaling of the equilibrium radiative forcing, with the GTPs decreasing more rapidly with time than the GWPs. While the aerosol climate metrics have only a modest dependence on emission region, emissions of NOx and VOCs from South Asia have GWPs and GTPs of higher magnitude than from the other northern hemisphere regions. On regional basis, the northern mid-latitude temperature response to northern mid-latitude emissions is approximately twice as large as the global average response for aerosol emission, and about 20-30% larger than the global average for methane, VOC and CO emissions. We also found that temperatures in the Arctic latitudes appear to be particularly sensitive to black carbon emissions from South Asia.

  12. Inferring past climate change from subsurface temperature profiles - some problems and methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beck, A.E. (Western Ontario University, London, ON (Canada). Dept. of Geophysics)

    1992-12-01

    This paper traces the history of the interest in the effect of past climate change on subsurface temperatures and the later interest in the inverse problem. Consideration is given to some of the problems that have to be solved to obtain a ground surface temperature history (GSTH) that is sufficiently accurate and reliable for the anthropogenic contribution to be determined, problems such as the detection and correction for other sources of subsurface perturbations. Finally, some advantages and disadvantages of the modern methods now being developed are briefly discussed.

  13. Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sinclair, Brent J.; Marshall, Katie E.; Sewell, Mary A.;

    2016-01-01

    Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T-b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key - but often biologically unreasonable - assumptions underlying...... this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T-b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs....... For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage-specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions...

  14. Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean resulting from a 2C global temperature rise

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Tin, T. [National Observatory of Athens, Athens (Greece); Bindi, M.; Moriondo, M. [Department of Agronomy and Land Management, Florence (Italy)

    2005-07-01

    The goal of the present study is to provide the first piece of the puzzle in understanding the impacts of a 2C global temperature rise on the Mediterranean region, using high temporal resolution climate model output that has been made newly available. The analysis has been based on the temperature, precipitation and wind daily outputs of the HadCM3 model using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The study is focussed on the thirty-year period (2031-2060) centred on the time that global temperature is expected to reach 2C above pre-industrial levels, as defined by an earlier companion study. Changes in both the mean (temperature, precipitation) and the extremes (heatwaves, drought) under the different scenarios were assessed. The impacts of these climatic changes on energy demand, forest fire, tourism and agriculture were subsequently investigated either using existing numerical models or an expertbased approach. Based on recent studies, the impacts on biodiversity, water resources and sea level rise in the region were also discussed.

  15. Temperature and Violent Crime in Dallas, Texas: Relationships and Implications of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janet L. Gamble

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: To investigate relationships between ambient temperatures and violent crimes to determine whether those relationships are consistent across different crime categories and whether they are best described as increasing linear functions, or as curvilinear functions that decrease beyond some temperature threshold. A secondary objective was to consider the implications of the observed relationships for injuries and deaths from violent crimes in the context of a warming climate. To address these questions, we examined the relationship between daily ambient temperatures and daily incidents of violent crime in Dallas, Texas from 1993–1999.Methods: We analyzed the relationships between daily fluctuations in ambient temperature, other meteorological and temporal variables, and rates of daily violent crime using time series piece-wise regression and plots of daily data. Violent crimes, including aggravated assault, homicide, and sexualassault, were analyzed.Results: We found that daily mean ambient temperature is related in a curvilinear fashion to daily rates of violent crime with a positive and increasing relationship between temperature and aggravated crime that moderates beyond temperatures of 80 F and then turns negative beyond 90 F.Conclusion: While some have characterized the relationship between temperature and violent crime as a continually increasing linear function, leaving open the possibility that aggravated crime will increase in a warmer climate, we conclude that the relationship in Dallas is not linear, but moderatesand turns negative at high ambient temperatures. We posit that higher temperatures may encourage people to seek shelter in cooler indoor spaces, and that street crime and other crimes of opportunity are subsequently decreased. This finding suggests that the higher ambient temperatures expected with climate change may result in marginal shifts in violent crime in the short term, but are not likely to be

  16. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  17. Projected changes to high temperature events for Canada based on a regional climate model ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Diro, Gulilat Tefera; Khaliq, M. Naveed; Beltrami, Hugo; Caya, Daniel

    2016-05-01

    Extreme hot spells can have significant impacts on human society and ecosystems, and therefore it is important to assess how these extreme events will evolve in a changing climate. In this study, the impact of climate change on hot days, hot spells, and heat waves, over 10 climatic regions covering Canada, based on 11 regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program for the June to August summer period is presented. These simulations were produced with six RCMs driven by four Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM), for the A2 emission scenario, for the current 1970-1999 and future 2040-2069 periods. Two types of hot days, namely HD-1 and HD-2, defined respectively as days with only daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and both Tmax and daily minimum temperature (Tmin) exceeding their respective thresholds (i.e., period-of-record 90th percentile of Tmax and Tmin values), are considered in the study. Analogous to these hot days, two types of hot spells, namely HS-1 and HS-2, are identified as spells of consecutive HD-1 and HD-2 type hot days. In the study, heat waves are defined as periods of three or more consecutive days, with Tmax above 32 °C threshold. Results suggest future increases in the number of both types of hot days and hot spell events for the 10 climatic regions considered. However, the projected changes show high spatial variability and are highly dependent on the RCM and driving AOGCM combination. Extreme hot spell events such as HS-2 type hot spells of longer duration are expected to experience relatively larger increases compared to hot spells of moderate duration, implying considerable heat related environmental and health risks. Regionally, the Great Lakes, West Coast, Northern Plains, and Maritimes regions are found to be more affected due to increases in the frequency and severity of hot spells and/or heat wave characteristics, requiring more in depth studies for these regions

  18. Historical and potential changes of precipitation and temperature of Alberta subjected to climate change impact: 1900-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Rengui; Gan, Thian Yew; Xie, Jiancang; Wang, Ni; Kuo, Chun-Chao

    2017-02-01

    We investigated changes to precipitation and temperature of Alberta for historical and future periods. First, the Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope were used to test for historical trends and trend magnitudes from the climate data of Alberta, respectively. Second, the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, and B1) of CMIP3 (Phase 3 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project), projected by seven general circulation models (GCM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for three 30 years periods (2020s, 2050s, and 2080s), were used to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on precipitation and temperature of Alberta. Third, trends of projected precipitation and temperature were investigated, and differences between historical versus projected trends were estimated. Using the 50-km resolution dataset from CANGRD (Canadian Grid Climate Data), we found that Alberta had become warmer and somewhat drier for the past 112 years (1900-2011), especially in central and southern Alberta. For observed precipitation, upward trends mainly occurred in northern Alberta and at the leeward side of Canadian Rocky Mountains. However, only about 13 to 22 % of observed precipitation showed statistically significant increasing trends at 5 % significant level. Most observed temperature showed significant increasing trends, up to 0.05 °C/year in DJF (December, January, and February) in northern Alberta. GCMs' SRES projections indicated that seasonal precipitation of Alberta could change from -25 to 36 %, while the temperature would increase from 2020s to 2080s, with the largest increase (6.8 °C) in DJF. In all 21 GCM-SRES cases considered, precipitation in both DJF and MAM (March, April, and May) is projected to increase, while temperature is consistently projected to increase in all seasons, which generally agree with the trends of historical precipitation and temperature. The SRES A1B scenario of CCSM3 might project more realistic future climate for

  19. The relationships between temperature changes and reproductive investment in a Mediterranean goby: Insights for the assessment of climate change effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zucchetta, M.; Cipolato, G.; Pranovi, F.; Antonetti, P.; Torricelli, P.; Franzoi, P.; Malavasi, S.

    2012-04-01

    The relationships between changes in water temperature and the timing and level of reproductive investment were investigated in an estuarine fish, inhabiting the Venice lagoon: the grass goby Zosterisessor ophiocephalus. A time series of the mean monthly values of gonado-somatic index was coupled with thermal profiles of lagoon water temperatures over 14 years, from 1997 to 2010. Results showed that the reproductive investment was positively affected by water temperature changes, both in terms of monthly thermal anomalies and cumulative degree days. A predictive model was also developed to assess the temporal shift of reproductive peaks as a response to inter-annual thermal fluctuations. This model allowed the detection of deviations from the median level, indicating that during warmer years, the reproductive peak tended to occur earlier than during colder years. The model is therefore proposed as a tool to predict anticipated consequences of climate change on fish phenology in transitional waters, regarding recurrent biological phenomena, such as reproduction and recruitment.

  20. Changing patterns of the temperature-mortality association by time and location in the US, and implications for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordio, Francesco; Zanobetti, Antonella; Colicino, Elena; Kloog, Itai; Schwartz, Joel

    2015-08-01

    The shape of the non-linear relationship between temperature and mortality varies among cities with different climatic conditions. There has been little examination of how these curves change over space and time. We evaluated the short-term effects of hot and cold temperatures on daily mortality over six 7-year periods in 211 US cities, comprising over 42 million deaths. Cluster analysis was used to group the cities according to similar temperatures and relative humidity. Temperature-mortality functions were calculated using B-splines to model the heat effect (lag 0) and the cold effect on mortality (moving average lags 1-5). The functions were then combined through meta-smoothing and subsequently analyzed by meta-regression. We identified eight clusters. At lag 0, Cluster 5 (West Coast) had a RR of 1.14 (95% CI: 1.11,1.17) for temperatures of 27 °C vs 15.6 °C, and Cluster 6 (Gulf Coast) has a RR of 1.04 (95% CI: 1.03,1.05), suggesting that people are acclimated to their respective climates. Controlling for cluster effect in the multivariate-meta regression we found that across the US, the excess mortality from a 24-h temperature of 27 °C decreased over time from 10.6% to 0.9%. We found that the overall risk due to the heat effect is significantly affected by summer temperature mean and air condition usage, which could be a potential predictor in building climate-change scenarios.

  1. Mitigating Climate Change with Ocean Pipes: Influencing Land Temperature and Hydrology and Termination Overshoot Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwiatkowski, L.; Caldeira, K.; Ricke, K.

    2014-12-01

    With increasing risk of dangerous climate change geoengineering solutions to Earth's climate problems have attracted much attention. One proposed geoengineering approach considers the use of ocean pipes as a means to increase ocean carbon uptake and the storage of thermal energy in the deep ocean. We use a latest generation Earth System Model (ESM) to perform simulations of idealised extreme implementations of ocean pipes. In our simulations, downward transport of thermal energy by ocean pipes strongly cools the near surface atmosphere - by up to 11°C on a global mean. The ocean pipes cause net thermal energy to be transported from the terrestrial environment to the deep ocean while increasing the global net transport of water to land. By cooling the ocean surface more than the land, ocean pipes tend to promote a monsoonal-type circulation, resulting in increased water vapour transport to land. Throughout their implementation, ocean pipes prevent energy from escaping to space, increasing the amount of energy stored in Earth's climate system despite reductions in surface temperature. As a consequence, our results indicate that an abrupt termination of ocean pipes could cause dramatic increases in surface temperatures beyond that which would have been obtained had ocean pipes not been implemented.

  2. Climate Change Impact on Forest Cover using Warmth Index and Minimum Temperature in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, S.; Lee, W.; Yoo, S.; Park, S.

    2009-12-01

    The objective of study was to predict the changes in regional forest distribution using the Warmth Index (WI) and minimum temperature index (MTI) in Korea. Previously, there were several trials to explain the forest cover changes in Korea using global-scale models, such as MC1 (MAPSS-CENTURY) and CEVSA (Carbon Exchange between Vegetation, Soil, and Atmosphere). However, these global vegetation models are not pertinent to simulate the climate change impact on relatively small Korean ecosystem. Therefore, the zonal distribution of WI and MTI was applied to interpret the spatial patterns of forest vegetation. Firstly, the climate data of past years (1971-2000) was prepared by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and ECHO-G model provided future climate data under A1B scenario. Then, the optimal habitat rages of tree species were plotted by spatial distribution patterns of WI and MTI. In terms of cold tolerance for tree species, minimum monthly mean temperature of January (the coldest month) was converted to MTI, which related to intercellular freezing. MTI distribution of Korea in past years was ranged from -84.85 to 14. Overall MTI will be inclined in future period (2021-2050) and period (2071-2100), ranged from -80.91 to 19.45 and from 34.36 to -58.73, respectively. Also, WI was calculated by summing up of monthly mean temperature above 5 degrees Celsius. WI distribution of Korea in past years (1971-2000) was ranged from 72 to 132.9 degrees Celsius month. Overall WI will be increased in future period (2021-2050) and period (2071-2100), ranged from 81 to 147.9 degrees Celsius month and from 98 to 174.1 degrees Celsius month, respectively. As results of simulations, there were certain changes in vegetation distribution by climate change. The optimal habitat range of evergreen needleleaf species will be decreased and the range of deciduous and evergreen broadleaf species will be increased in the future; 1) especially, the optimal range of Pinus densiflora will

  3. Effects of temperature and moisture on Mormon cricket reproduction with implications for responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srygley, Robert B

    2014-06-01

    During the last decade, populations of flightless Mormon crickets Anabrus simplex (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) increased suddenly over vast areas of the Western United States, suggesting that climate is an important factor driving outbreaks. Moreover summer temperatures are predicted to increase and precipitation is expected to decrease in most areas of the U.S. Great Basin, but little is known of the response of Mormon crickets to changes in temperature and soil moisture. In a laboratory study, we varied ambient temperature and lighting and measured the propensity of mating pairs to mate, and the proportion of eggs that developed into embryos. We found that reproduction was optimal when ambient temperature reached 30°C and the insects were beneath broad-spectrum lights such that maternal body and soil temperatures reached 35°C. Fewer eggs that developed fully were laid when maternal body and soil temperatures reached 30°C or 37-39°C. We also varied initial soil moisture from 0% to 100% saturated and found that more eggs reached embryonic diapause when initial soil moisture was 25% or 50% of saturated volume. However more of the developed eggs hatched when treated in summer soils with 0-25% of saturated moisture. We conclude that small changes in temperature had large effects on reproduction, whereas large changes in moisture had very small effects on reproduction. This is the first report of Mormon crickets mating in a laboratory setting and laying eggs that hatched, facilitating further research on the role of maternal and embryonic environments in changes in population size.

  4. Climate change and the effects of temperature extremes on Australian flying-foxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welbergen, Justin A; Klose, Stefan M; Markus, Nicola; Eby, Peggy

    2008-02-22

    Little is known about the effects of temperature extremes on natural systems. This is of increasing concern now that climate models predict dramatic increases in the intensity, duration and frequency of such extremes. Here we examine the effects of temperature extremes on behaviour and demography of vulnerable wild flying-foxes (Pteropus spp.). On 12 January 2002 in New South Wales, Australia, temperatures exceeding 42 degrees C killed over 3500 individuals in nine mixed-species colonies. In one colony, we recorded a predictable sequence of thermoregulatory behaviours (wing-fanning, shade-seeking, panting and saliva-spreading, respectively) and witnessed how 5-6% of bats died from hyperthermia. Mortality was greater among the tropical black flying-fox, Pteropus alecto (10-13%) than the temperate grey-headed flying-fox, Pteropus poliocephalus (less than 1%), and young and adult females were more affected than adult males (young, 23-49%; females, 10-15%; males, less than 3%). Since 1994, over 30000 flying-foxes (including at least 24500 P. poliocephalus) were killed during 19 similar events. Although P. alecto was relatively less affected, it is currently expanding its range into the more variable temperature envelope of P. poliocephalus, which increases the likelihood of die-offs occurring in this species. Temperature extremes are important additional threats to Australian flying-foxes and the ecosystem services they provide, and we recommend close monitoring of colonies where temperatures exceeding 42.0 degrees C are predicted. The effects of temperature extremes on flying-foxes highlight the complex implications of climate change for behaviour, demography and species survival.

  5. Climate change scenarios of extreme temperatures and atmospheric humidity for Mexico

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tejeda-Martinez, A. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)]. E-mail: atejeda@uv.mx; Conde-Alvarez, C. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Valencia-Treviso, L.E. [Departamento de Ciencias Atmosfericas, Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)

    2008-10-15

    The following study explores climatic change scenarios of extreme temperature and atmospheric humidity for the 2020 and 2050 decades. They were created for Mexico through the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HadCM2 general circulation models. Base scenario conditions were associated with the normal climatological conditions for the period 1961-1990, with a database of 50 surface observatories. It was necessary to empirically estimate the missing data in approximately half of the pressure measurements. For the period 1961-1990, statistical models of the monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and atmospheric humidity (relative and specific) were obtained from the observed data of temperature, solar radiation and precipitation. Based on the simulations of the GFDLR30, ECHAM4 and HADCM2 models, a future scenario of monthly means of maximum and minimum temperatures and humidity in climatic change conditions was created. The results shown are for the representative months of winter (January) and summer (July). [Spanish] En este articulo se presentan escenarios de cambio climatico referidos a temperaturas extremas y humedad atmosferica para las decadas de 2020 y 2050. Fueron generados para Mexico a partir de los modelos de circulacion general GFDLR30, ECHAM4 y HADCM2. El escenario base corresponde a las normales climatologicas del periodo 1961-1990 para 50 observatorios de superficie. Para la mitad de ellos fue necesario estimar empiricamente la presion atmosferica a partir de la altitud y para la totalidad se obtuvieron modelos estadisticos de los promedios mensuales de temperaturas maxima y minima asi como de humedad atmosferica (relativa y especifica). Esos modelos estadisticos, combinados con las salidas de los modelos de circulacion general mencionados, produjeron escenarios futuros de medias mensuales de temperaturas extremas y de humedad bajo condiciones de cambio climatico. Se mostraran los resultados para un mes representativo del invierno (enero) y otro del verano

  6. Climate change for the last 1,000 years inferred from borehole temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kitaoka, K.; Arimoto, H.; Hamamoto, H.; Taniguchi, M.; Takeuchi, T.

    2013-12-01

    Subsurface temperatures are an archive of temperature changes occurred at the ground surface in the recent past (Lachenbruch and Marshall, 1986; Pollack, 1993). In order to investigate the local surface temperature histories in Osaka Plane, Japan, we observed subsurface temperatures in existing boreholes, using a thermometer logger. Many temperature-depth profiles within 200 m depth from the ground surface have been obtained, but they show considerable variability. The geological formations in the area consist of horizontally stratified sedimentary layers of about 1,000 m in thickness overlaid on bedrock of granite. There exists a vertical disordered structure in the formations, which may be relating to an active fault (Uemachi fault) in the bedrock (Takemura, et al, 2013). It is considered that groundwater in the horizontal layers cannot move vertically, but can move vertically along the vertical disordered zone. Various temperature profiles might be related to occurrence of vertical groundwater flow in the zone. Analytical models of subsurface temperature which include heat conduction and convection due to vertical groundwater flow in the zone have been constructed under the boundary conditions of prescribing time dependent surface temperature and uniform geothermal flux from greater depths. To solve as one-dimensional problem, heat transfer between the vertical zone and the surrounding medium of no groundwater flow is assumed. Prescribing surface temperatures were given as exponential and periodic functions of the time. Climate change can be considered to comprise both natural and artificial changes. Artificial change, which occurs by the increasing combustion of fossil fuels, is considered roughly to be an exponential increase of the ground surface temperature during the last 150 years. Natural change, which can correlate to solar activity (Lassen and Friis-Christensen, 1995), is assumed roughly to be periodic with the period of about 1200 y at the minimum time

  7. Impact of local adaptation measures and regional climate change on perceived temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoetter, Robert; Grawe, David; Hoffmann, Peter; Kirschner, Peter; Heinke Schluenzen, K. [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Meteorological Inst.; Graetz, Angelika [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Freiburg (Germany). Zentrum fuer Medizin-Meteorologische Forschung

    2013-04-15

    The perceived temperature (PT) is a measure for the quantification of human thermal comfort developed by the German Meteorological Service (DWD). In the present article, the sensitivity of PT on air temperature, water vapour pressure, wind speed, mean radiant temperature, street canyon width, and building heights is investigated. The mesoscale atmospheric model METRAS is integrated for a domain covering the city of Hamburg at 250 m horizontal resolution to calculate the meteorological input data for PT. The sensitivities of PT are determined by automatic differentiation of the basic DWD program. The sensitivities show how local adaptation measures and regional climate change can influence PT. The sensitivities also allow to estimate how accurate different input variables need to be known in order to achieve a desired accuracy in PT. The results are discussed in detail for 10 June 2007, a cloudless day with advection of warm air masses from south-east. A comparison with results obtained for different synoptic situations during summer is made. The sensitivities of PT on air temperature, water vapour pressure and mean radiant temperature are higher during warm and humid conditions than in situations with thermal comfort. The sensitivity of PT on wind speed is highest for low wind speeds. Around noon, increasing the building heights by 5 m can reduce PT up to 2.4 K due to shading effects in street canyons with aspect ratios above 0.5. After sunset, increasing the building heights by 5 m tends to moderately increase PT due to increased longwave radiation. (orig.)

  8. Temperature and extreme rainfalls on France in a climatic change scenario; Temperature et precipitations extremes sur la france dans un scenario de changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    Impact of an anthropogenic climate change scenario on the frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation over France is studied with a numerical simulation calibrated with observed daily data from the synoptic network. (author)

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Stream Temperatures in the Columbia River System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yearsley, J. R.; Crozier, L.

    2014-12-01

    The Columbia River system, a drainage basin of 668,000 sq. km that includes the Columbia and Snake River rivers, supports a large population of anadromous, cold-water fishes. 13 species of these fishes are listed under the Endangered Species Act and are vulnerable to impacts of climate change. Bioenergetics models for these species have been developed by the federal agencies that operate the Federal Columbia River Power System. These models simulate the impacts on anadromous fishes as they move through the power system both upstream as adults and downstream as juveniles. Water temperature simulations required for input to the bioenergetics models were made for two different segments of the Columbia River system; one being the portions from the Canadian border to Bonneville Dam and the Snake River from Brownlee Dam in Idaho to its confluence and the other, the Salmon River basin in Idaho. Simulations were performed for the period 1928-1998 with the semi-Lagrangian stream temperature model, RBM, for existing conditions and for a two 2040 climate scenarios, a cool, dry condition (ECHO_g model) and a warm, wet condition (MIROC_3.2 model). Natural flows were simulated with the variable infiltration capacity model, VIC, and modified for Columbia River project operations using HYDSIM, a hydro system regulation model that simulates month-to-month operation of the Pacific Northwest hydropower system.

  10. Response of Arctic Temperature to Changes in Emissions of Short-Lived Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice the global rate, largely due to ice albedo and temperature feedbacks. While deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation appear promptly and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This study is the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCF emissions, taking into account BC, sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile hydrocarbons (VOC), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone, their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. Using several chemical transport models we perform detailed radiative forcing calculations from emissions of these species. Geographically we separate emissions into seven source regions that correspond with the national groupings of the Arctic Council, the leading body organizing international policy in the region (the United States, Canada, the Nordic countries, the rest of Europe, Russia, East and South Asia, and the rest of the world). We look at six main sectors known to account for [nearly all] of these emissions: households (domestic), energy/industry/waste, transport, agricultural fires, grass/forest fires, and gas flaring. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible SLCFs mitigation scenario, phased in from 2015 through 2030, can cut warming by 0.2 K in 2050.

  11. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  12. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...

  13. Impacts of rainfall and air temperature variations due to climate change upon hydrological characteristics: a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rainfall and air temperature variations resulting from climate change are important driving forces to alter hydrologic processes in watershed ecosystems. This study investigated impacts of past and potential future rainfall and air temperature variations upon water discharge, water outflow (from th...

  14. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  15. Changes in the temperature annual cycle in China and their implications for studying climate variability and change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, C.; Fu, C.; Wu, Z.

    2011-12-01

    Climate changes in the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle (seasonality) of surface air temperature (SAT) in China are presented. The ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is applied to adaptively extract the annual cycle (the yearly period component, which contributes 96% of the total variance of China mean SAT) from homogenized daily mean SAT. (1)Changes in the amplitude of the annual cycle of China mean SAT for the period 1961-2007 are investigated. The results show that variation and change in the amplitude are significant, with a peak-to-peak annual amplitude variation of 13% (1.8degC) of its mean amplitude and a significant linear decrease in amplitude by 4.6% (0.63degC) for this period. Also identified is a multidecadal change in amplitude from significant decreasing (-1.7%/decade or -0.23degC/decade) to significant increasing (2.2%/decade or 0.29dedC/decade) occurring around 1993 that overlaps the systematic linear trend. This multidecadal change can be attributed mainly to the change in surface solar radiation, from dimming to brightening, rather than to warming or an enhanced greenhouse effect. We further propose that the combined effect of the global dimming/brightening transition and a gradual increase in greenhouse warming has led to a perceived warming trend that is much larger in winter than in summer and to a perceived accelerated warming in the annual mean since the early 1990s in China. We also note that the deseasonalization method (considering either the conventional repetitive climatological annual cycle or the time-varying annual cycle) can also affect trend estimation. (2)Trends in the spring phase of the annual cycle of SAT and their contributions to the earlier onset of climatic spring in northern China are investigated. Variations in the spring phase of the annual cycle could cause as much as a 20-day shift in the spring onset from one year to another at Beijing station. The change in the spring phase of annual cycle

  16. High regional climate sensitivity over continental China constrained by glacial-recent changes in temperature and the hydrological cycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagle, Robert A; Risi, Camille; Mitchell, Jonathan L; Eiler, John M; Seibt, Ulrike; Neelin, J David; Li, Gaojun; Tripati, Aradhna K

    2013-05-28

    The East Asian monsoon is one of Earth's most significant climatic phenomena, and numerous paleoclimate archives have revealed that it exhibits variations on orbital and suborbital time scales. Quantitative constraints on the climate changes associated with these past variations are limited, yet are needed to constrain sensitivity of the region to changes in greenhouse gas levels. Here, we show central China is a region that experienced a much larger temperature change since the Last Glacial Maximum than typically simulated by climate models. We applied clumped isotope thermometry to carbonates from the central Chinese Loess Plateau to reconstruct temperature and water isotope shifts from the Last Glacial Maximum to present. We find a summertime temperature change of 6-7 °C that is reproduced by climate model simulations presented here. Proxy data reveal evidence for a shift to lighter isotopic composition of meteoric waters in glacial times, which is also captured by our model. Analysis of model outputs suggests that glacial cooling over continental China is significantly amplified by the influence of stationary waves, which, in turn, are enhanced by continental ice sheets. These results not only support high regional climate sensitivity in Central China but highlight the fundamental role of planetary-scale atmospheric dynamics in the sensitivity of regional climates to continental glaciation, changing greenhouse gas levels, and insolation.

  17. Impact of local adaptation measures and regional climate change on perceived temperature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoetter

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The perceived temperature (PT is a measure for the quantification of human thermal comfort developed by the German Meteorological Service (DWD. In the present article, the sensitivity of PT on air temperature, water vapour pressure, wind speed, mean radiant temperature, street canyon width, and building heights is investigated. The mesoscale atmospheric model METRAS is integrated for a domain covering the city of Hamburg at 250 m horizontal resolution to calculate the meteorological input data for PT. The sensitivities of PT are determined by automatic differentiation of the basic DWD program. The sensitivities show how local adaptation measures and regional climate change can influence PT. The sensitivities also allow to estimate how accurate different input variables need to be known in order to achieve a desired accuracy in PT. The results are discussed in detail for 10 June 2007, a cloudless day with advection of warm air masses from south-east. A comparison with results obtained for different synoptic situations during summer is made. The sensitivities of PT on air temperature, water vapour pressure and mean radiant temperature are higher during warm and humid conditions than in situations with thermal comfort. The sensitivity of PT on wind speed is highest for low wind speeds. Around noon, increasing the building heights by 5 m can reduce PT up to 2.4 K due to shading effects in street canyons with aspect ratios above 0.5. After sunset, increasing the building heights by 5 m tends to moderately increase PT due to increased longwave radiation.

  18. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  19. Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea surface temperature: a multimodel comparison

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hodson, Daniel L.R.; Sutton, Rowan T. [University of Reading, Walker Institute, Department of Meteorology, P.O. Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom); Cassou, Christophe [CERFACS, Toulouse Cedex (France); Keenlyside, Noel [IFM-GEOMAR, Kiel (Germany); Okumura, Yuko [CAS, CGD-NCAR, Boulder, CO (United States); Zhou, Tianjun [Chinese Acadamey of Sciences, State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Beijing (China)

    2010-06-15

    During the twentieth century sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean exhibited prominent multidecadal variations. The source of such variations has yet to be rigorously established - but the question of their impact on climate can be investigated. Here we report on a set of multimodel experiments to examine the impact of patterns of warming in the North Atlantic, and cooling in the South Atlantic, derived from observations, that is characteristic of the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The experiments were carried out with six atmospheric General Circulation Models (including two versions of one model), and a major goal was to assess the extent to which key climate impacts are consistent between the different models. The major climate impacts are found over North and South America, with the strongest impacts over land found over the United States and northern parts of South America. These responses appear to be driven by a combination of an off-equatorial Gill response to diabatic heating over the Caribbean due to increased rainfall within the region and a Northward shift in the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) due to the anomalous cross-equatorial SST gradient. The majority of the models show warmer US land temperatures and reduced Mean Sea Level Pressure during summer (JJA) in response to a warmer North Atlantic and a cooler South Atlantic, in line with observations. However the majority of models show no significant impact on US rainfall during summer. Over northern South America, all models show reduced rainfall in southern hemisphere winter (JJA), whilst in Summer (DJF) there is a generally an increase in rainfall. However, there is a large spread amongst the models in the magnitude of the rainfall anomalies over land. Away from the Americas, there are no consistent significant modelled responses. In particular there are no significant changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the North Atlantic and Europe

  20. Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Brewer, Scott J.; Jones, Edward C.; Rondorf, Dennis W.

    2011-01-01

    A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020.

  1. Climate Changes around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahl, J.

    2009-07-01

    This presentation addresses several important aspects of the climate changes that are occurring around the globe. the causes of climate change are first reviewed, with illustrations of orbital oscillations, the atmospheric greenhouse effect, and aerosol effects. Observed changes in climate are next reviewed, both thought many millenia and during the past century. Distinctions are made between global warming and regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Changes in the frequency of weather extremes, including heat waves and tropical storms, are also discussed. (Author)

  2. Modeling the impacts of climate change on stream water temperature across the Conterminous U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, C.; Caldwell, P.; Sun, G.; McNulty, D.; Zhang, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Water temperature is a critical variable to aquatic ecosystems because it controls metabolic rates and distribution of aquatic organisms. In this work, we present an empirical model to investigate the effects of climate change on stream water temperature and apply the model across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). The model linearly describes site relationships between monthly-mean air (ta) temperature and stream water temperature (ts) as a function of climatic, hydrologic, and land cover characteristics. We found that more complex models to fit the relation between ta and ts at individual sites did not improve fitting accuracy. The empirical model was derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow (GAGES) data base, version II. These sites drain basins with areas spanning four orders of magnitude and are located in 32 states and 16 hydrologic regions. The model predicts slope and intercept of the linear relation between ta and ts. The slopes of the linear relations are computed as a function of drainage area, base flow index, elevation, forest cover, and mean annual precipitation. While it was not possible to derive a single generalized model for the intercept, we found that by dividing the sites into three elevation categories, we obtained a robust model in which most of the variance is explained by mean annual precipitation (for sites > 1200 m elevation), drainage area and elevation (for sites between 200-1200 m elevation), and drainage area and mean annual temperature (for sites 0.8. The model is stronger at predicting the slope (r2=0.55) than the intercept (r2=0.26-0.47). The mean normalized gross error for slope was below 10% for 60% of the sites and below 25% for 77% of the sites. Absolute errors for the intercept were below 1°C in ts for 63% of the sites and less than 2°C in ts for 90% of the sites. Validation of the calculated slope and intercept of the ts vs. ta relation at 89 non

  3. Rising temperatures, rising tensions : climate change and the risk of violent conflict in the Middle East

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, O.; Crawford, A.

    2009-07-01

    Scientific evidence suggests that climate change will have significant impacts to food security, disease prevalence, population distribution, and water availability in the Middle East. This paper discussed the likelihood of increased conflict as a result of climatic change in Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, and the occupied Palestinian territory. A range of consultations and interviews with experts were analyzed in order to determine security threats in the region over the next 40 years. The study showed that the legacy of conflict in the region will hamper its ability to adapt to climate change. Climate change is likely to increase competition for water resources, intensify food shortages, and hinder economic growth. Climate change may also lead to forced migration and tensions with existing refugee populations and increase the militarization of natural resources. Strategies to pursue sustainable development in the Levant region included fostering a culture of conservation, addressing core tensions related to agriculture and water development, and reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Regional cooperation is needed to develop effective approaches for GHG emissions reduction plans. 68 refs., 3 tabs., 22 figs.

  4. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  5. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

  6. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  7. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  8. Climate change impacts on extreme temperature mortality in select metropolitan areas of the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Projected mortality from climate change-driven impacts on extremely hot and cold days increases significantly over the 21st century in a large group of United States Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Increases in projected mortality from more hot days are greater than decreases in ...

  9. Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature-dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Genovart, Meritxell; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R; Oro, Daniel

    2015-08-01

    Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years.

  10. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  11. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Butchart, Stuart H M; Jetz, Walter; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2014-01-01

    Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation) and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among species, and the capacity

  12. Range-wide latitudinal and elevational temperature gradients for the world's terrestrial birds: implications under global climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank A La Sorte

    Full Text Available Species' geographical distributions are tracking latitudinal and elevational surface temperature gradients under global climate change. To evaluate the opportunities to track these gradients across space, we provide a first baseline assessment of the steepness of these gradients for the world's terrestrial birds. Within the breeding ranges of 9,014 bird species, we characterized the spatial gradients in temperature along latitude and elevation for all and a subset of bird species, respectively. We summarized these temperature gradients globally for threatened and non-threatened species and determined how their steepness varied based on species' geography (range size, shape, and orientation and projected changes in temperature under climate change. Elevational temperature gradients were steepest for species in Africa, western North and South America, and central Asia and shallowest in Australasia, insular IndoMalaya, and the Neotropical lowlands. Latitudinal temperature gradients were steepest for extratropical species, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. Threatened species had shallower elevational gradients whereas latitudinal gradients differed little between threatened and non-threatened species. The strength of elevational gradients was positively correlated with projected changes in temperature. For latitudinal gradients, this relationship only held for extratropical species. The strength of latitudinal gradients was better predicted by species' geography, but primarily for extratropical species. Our findings suggest threatened species are associated with shallower elevational temperature gradients, whereas steep latitudinal gradients are most prevalent outside the tropics where fewer bird species occur year-round. Future modeling and mitigation efforts would benefit from the development of finer grain distributional data to ascertain how these gradients are structured within species' ranges, how and why these gradients vary among

  13. Climate change impact on the roles of temperature and precipitation in western U.S. snowpack variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scalzitti, Jason; Strong, Courtenay; Kochanski, Adam

    2016-05-01

    We employ dynamical downscaling and pseudo global warming methodologies to evaluate climate change impact on the roles of temperature and precipitation in spring snowpack (S) variability across the western United States (U.S.). The negative correlation between S and temperature weakens linearly with elevation, whereas the correlation between S and precipitation increases asymptotically with elevation. The curvilinear relationship in the latter case was not visible in prior studies because of the observation networks' limited range. In our historical validation, there is a range of threshold elevations (1580-2181 m) across six mountainous regions, above which precipitation is the main driver of snowpack variability and below which temperature is the main driver. Under a moderate end-of-century climate change scenario, these thresholds increase by 191 to 432 m. These rising thresholds indicate increasing spatial and elevational vulnerability of western U.S. spring snowpack along with associated impacts to hydrologic and ecologic systems.

  14. Metabolic scope and interspecific competition in sculpins of Greenland are influenced by increased temperatures due to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth, Henrik; Gräns, Albin; Sandblom, Erik; Olsson, Catharina; Wiklander, Kerstin; Johnsson, Jörgen I; Axelsson, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Ongoing climate change has led to an increase in sea surface temperatures of 2-4°C on the west coast of Greenland. Since fish are ectothermic, metabolic rate increases with ambient temperature. This makes these animals particularly sensitive to changes in temperature; subsequently any change may influence their metabolic scope, i.e. the physiological capacity to undertake aerobically challenging activities. Any temperature increase may thus disrupt species-specific temperature adaptations, at both the molecular level as well as in behavior, and concomitant species differences in the temperature sensitivity may shift the competitive balance among coexisting species. We investigated the influence of temperature on metabolic scope and competitive ability in three species of marine sculpin that coexist in Greenland coastal waters. Since these species have different distribution ranges, we hypothesized that there should be a difference in their physiological response to temperature; hence we compared their metabolic scope at three temperatures (4, 9 and 14°C). Their competitive ability at the ambient temperature of 9°C was also tested in an attempt to link physiological capacity with behaviour. The Arctic staghorn sculpin, the species with the northernmost distribution range, had a lower metabolic scope in the higher temperature range compared to the other two species, which had similar metabolic scope at the three temperatures. The Arctic staghorn sculpin also had reduced competitive ability at 9°C and may thus already be negatively affected by the current ocean warming. Our results suggest that climate change can have effects on fish physiology and interspecific competition, which may alter the species composition of the Arctic fish fauna.

  15. Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. Ficklin

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Water temperature is a primary physical factor regulating the persistence and distribution of aquatic taxa. Considering projected increases in temperature and changes in precipitation in the coming century, accurate assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream temperature model and downscaled General Circulation Model outputs to explore the spatially and temporally varying changes in stream temperature at the subbasin and ecological province scale for the Columbia River Basin. On average, stream temperatures are projected to increase 3.5 °C for the spring, 5.2 °C for the summer, 2.7 °C for the fall, and 1.6 °C for the winter. While results indicate changes in stream temperature are correlated with changes in air temperature, our results also capture the important, and often ignored, influence of hydrological processes on changes in stream temperature. Decreases in future snowcover will result in increased thermal sensitivity within regions that were previously buffered by the cooling effect of flow originating as snowmelt. Other hydrological components, such as precipitation, surface runoff, lateral soil flow, and groundwater, are negatively correlated to increases in stream temperature depending on the season and ecological province. At the ecological province scale, the largest increase in annual stream temperature was within the Mountain Snake ecological province, which is characterized by non-migratory coldwater fish species. Stream temperature changes varied seasonally with the largest projected stream temperature increases occurring during the spring and summer for all ecological provinces. Our results indicate that stream temperatures are driven by local processes and ultimately require a physically-explicit modeling approach to accurately characterize the

  16. Investigation of the impact of climate change on river water temperature: possible mitigation measures using riparian vegetation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weihs, Philipp; Trimmel, Heidelinde; Formayer, Herbert; Kalny, Gerda; Rauch, Hans Peter; Leidinger, David

    2016-04-01

    Water stream temperature is a relevant factor for water quality since it is an important driver of water oxygen content and in turn also reduces or increases stress on the aquatic fauna. The water temperature of streams is determined by the source and inflow water temperature, by the energy balance at the stream surface and by the hydrological regime of the stream. Main factors driving the energy balance of streams are radiation balance and air temperature which influence the sensitive and latent heat flux. The present study investigates the influence of climate change on water temperature of streams and the potential of riparian vegetation to mitigate its effects. Within the scope of the project BIO_CLIC routine measurements of water temperature at 33 locations alongside the rivers Pinka and Lafnitz were performed from spring 2012 until autumn 2014. In addition meteorological measurements of global shortwave and longwave radiation, air temperature, wind and air humidity were carried out during this time. For the same time period, data of discharge and water levels of both rivers were provided by the public hydrological office. This time period also includes the heat episode of summer 2013 during which the highest air temperature ever recorded in Austria was reported on 8 August at 40.5°C. In the lower reaches of the river Pinka, at the station Burg the monthly mean water temperature of August 2013 was with more than 22°C, 1°C higher than the mean water temperature of the same period of the previous years. At the same station, the maximum water temperature of 27.1°C was recorded on 29 July, 9 days prior to the air temperature record. Analysis shows that at the downstream stations the main driving parameter is solar radiation whereas at the upstream stations a better correlation between air temperature and water temperature is obtained. The influence of riparian vegetation on water temperature, leading to lower water temperature by shading, is also detectable

  17. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... sheets Fact files Questions & answers Features Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 Key ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  18. Climate Change and Collective Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

    2017-03-20

    Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and

  19. Relationship between alpine tourism demand and hot summer air temperatures associated with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebetez, M.; Serquet, G.

    2010-09-01

    We quantified the impacts of hot summer air temperatures on tourism in the Swiss Alps by analyzing the relationship between temperature and overnight stays in 40 Alpine resorts. Several temperature and insolation thresholds were tested to detect their relationship to summer tourism. Our results reveal significant correlations between the number of nights spent in mountain resorts and hot temperatures at lower elevations. Alpine resorts nearest to cities are most sensitive to hot temperatures. This is probably because reactions to hot episodes take place on a short-term basis as heat waves remain relatively rare. The correlation in June is stronger compared to the other months, probably because school holidays and the peak domestic tourist demand in summer usually takes place in July and August. Our results suggest that alpine tourist resorts could benefit from hotter temperatures at lower elevations under future climates. Tourists already react on a short-term basis to hot days and spend more nights in hotels in mountain resorts. If heat waves become more regular, it seems likely that tourists choose to stay at alpine resorts more frequently and for longer periods.

  20. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  1. Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yingying; Wang, Xiaojing; Silander, John A

    2015-11-01

    Changes in spring and autumn phenology of temperate plants in recent decades have become iconic bio-indicators of rapid climate change. These changes have substantial ecological and economic impacts. However, autumn phenology remains surprisingly little studied. Although the effects of unfavorable environmental conditions (e.g., frost, heat, wetness, and drought) on autumn phenology have been observed for over 60 y, how these factors interact to influence autumn phenological events remain poorly understood. Using remotely sensed phenology data from 2001 to 2012, this study identified and quantified significant effects of a suite of environmental factors on the timing of fall dormancy of deciduous forest communities in New England, United States. Cold, frost, and wet conditions, and high heat-stress tended to induce earlier dormancy of deciduous forests, whereas moderate heat- and drought-stress delayed dormancy. Deciduous forests in two eco-regions showed contrasting, nonlinear responses to variation in these explanatory factors. Based on future climate projection over two periods (2041-2050 and 2090-2099), later dormancy dates were predicted in northern areas. However, in coastal areas earlier dormancy dates were predicted. Our models suggest that besides warming in climate change, changes in frost and moisture conditions as well as extreme weather events (e.g., drought- and heat-stress, and flooding), should also be considered in future predictions of autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forests. This study improves our understanding of how multiple environmental variables interact to affect autumn phenology in temperate deciduous forest ecosystems, and points the way to building more mechanistic and predictive models.

  2. Climate Change Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    This book brings together over seventy fifty authors for a comprehensive examination of the emerging global regime of climate change law. Despite the relative youth of climate change law, we can already begin to see the outlines of legal regimes addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation (a

  3. Effect of climate change on water temperature and attainment of water temperature criteria in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Cheryl A.; Sharp, Darrin; Mochon Collura, T. Chris

    2016-02-01

    There is increasing evidence that our planet is warming and this warming is also resulting in rising sea levels. Estuaries which are located at the interface between land and ocean are impacted by these changes. We used CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model to predict changes in water temperature as a function of increasing air temperatures and rising sea level for the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA). Annual average air temperature in the Yaquina watershed is expected to increase about 0.3 °C per decade by 2040-2069. An air temperature increase of 3 °C in the Yaquina watershed is likely to result in estuarine water temperature increasing by 0.7-1.6 °C. Largest water temperature increases are expected in the upper portion of the estuary, while sea level rise may mitigate some of the warming in the lower portion of the estuary. Smallest changes in water temperature are predicted to occur in the summer, and maximum changes during the winter and spring. Increases in air temperature may result in an increase in the number of days per year that the 7-day maximum average temperature exceeds 18 °C (criterion for protection of rearing and migration of salmonids and trout) as well as other water quality concerns. In the upstream portion of the estuary, a 4 °C increase in air temperature is predicted to cause an increase of 40 days not meeting the temperature criterion, while in the lower estuary the increase will depend upon rate of sea level rise (ranging from 31 to 19 days).

  4. Application Of New Spatial Statistical Stream Models For Precise Downscaling Of Climate Change Effects On Temperatures In River Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaak, D.; Luce, C.; Peterson, E.

    2009-12-01

    A warming climate will bring unprecedented changes to stream and river ecosystems, with temperature considerations being of utmost importance, given that most aquatic organisms are ectothermic. Previous broad-scale assessments of climate impacts to streams have been limited by inadequate availability of stream temperature data and often relied on surrogate relationships between air temperature and elevation that are often imprecise. Mechanistic models have sometimes been used to model stream thermal responses directly, but intensive parameterization limits the spatial scope of these applications. Modeling approaches are needed that address stream temperatures directly at the larger spatial scales commensurate with most conservation and restoration planning efforts. We applied new spatial statistical models that account for network topology (i.e., flow direction and volume) to an extensive, but non-random stream temperature database (n = 780) compiled across a 13 year period (1993-2006) for a large (2,500 km) mountain river network in central Idaho. Four predictors—radiation, elevation, air temperature, and stream flow—were used in the spatial model to represent important geomorphic and climatic effects on mean summer stream temperatures. The spatial models accounted for autocorrelation among sample sites to provide improved parameter estimates and predictive accuracy (R2 = 0.93; RMSPE = 0.74○C) relative to traditional, non-spatial models (R2 = 0.68; RMSPE = 1.53○C). A small bias between observed stream temperatures and those predicted by the spatial models amounted to 0.5○C at the extremes of the observed temperature range (5○C - 20○C) and caused over- (under-) predictions for the coldest (warmest) streams. This bias could have arisen from elevational gradients associated with influxes of cold, snowmelt groundwater or alterations in valley form due to past glacial activity. Better understanding regarding the importance of these and other factors that

  5. Water temperature and fish growth: otoliths predict growth patterns of a marine fish in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rountrey, Adam N; Coulson, Peter G; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Meekan, Mark

    2014-08-01

    Ecological modeling shows that even small, gradual changes in body size in a fish population can have large effects on natural mortality, biomass, and catch. However, efforts to model the impact of climate change on fish growth have been hampered by a lack of long-term (multidecadal) data needed to understand the effects of temperature on growth rates in natural environments. We used a combination of dendrochronology techniques and additive mixed-effects modeling to examine the sensitivity of growth in a long-lived (up to 70 years), endemic marine fish, the western blue groper (Achoerodus gouldii), to changes in water temperature. A multi-decadal biochronology (1952-2003) of growth was constructed from the otoliths of 56 fish collected off the southwestern coast of Western Australia, and we tested for correlations between the mean index chronology and a range of potential environmental drivers. The chronology was significantly correlated with sea surface temperature in the region, but common variance among individuals was low. This suggests that this species has been relatively insensitive to past variations in climate. Growth increment and age data were also used in an additive mixed model to predict otolith growth and body size later this century. Although growth was relatively insensitive to changes in temperature, the model results suggested that a fish aged 20 in 2099 would have an otolith about 10% larger and a body size about 5% larger than a fish aged 20 in 1977. Our study shows that species or populations regarded as relatively insensitive to climate change could still undergo significant changes in growth rate and body size that are likely to have important effects on the productivity and yield of fisheries.

  6. Hantaviruses and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klempa, B

    2009-06-01

    Most hantaviruses are rodent-borne emerging viruses. They cause two significant human diseases, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome in the Americas. Very recently, several novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been identified in Africa and in a variety of insectivores (shrews and a mole). Because there is very limited information available on the possible impact of climate change on all of these highly dangerous pathogens, it is timely to review this aspect of their epidemiology. It can reasonably be concluded that climate change should influence hantaviruses through impacts on the hantavirus reservoir host populations. We can anticipate changes in the size and frequency of hantavirus outbreaks, the spectrum of hantavirus species and geographical distribution (mediated by changes in population densities), and species composition and geographical distribution of their reservoir hosts. The early effects of global warming have already been observed in different geographical areas of Europe. Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities. On the other hand, warm winters in Scandinavia have led to a decline in vole populations as a result of the missing protective snow cover. Additional effects can be caused by increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, or by changes in human behaviour leading to higher risk of human virus exposure. Regardless of the extent of climate change, it is difficult to predict the impact on hantavirus survival, emergence and epidemiology. Nevertheless, hantaviruses will undoubtedly remain a significant public health threat for several decades to come.

  7. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial-scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Whitney K.; Stein, Michael L.; McInerney, David J.; Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-07-01

    Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future (700 and 1400 ppm CO2) conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that warm extremes largely change in accordance with mean shifts in the distribution of summertime temperatures. Cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in the distribution of wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are generally well explained by the combination of mean shifts and reduced wintertime temperature variability. For cold extremes at inland locations, return levels at long recurrence intervals show additional effects related to changes in the spread and shape of GEV distributions. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In theory, the GEV distribution can allow prediction of infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence interval of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.

  8. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  9. Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dayananda, Buddhi; Gray, Sarah; Pike, David; Webb, Jonathan K

    2016-07-01

    Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may

  10. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pancic, Marina; Hansen, Per Juel; Tammilehto, Anna;

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8...... C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other...... the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms...

  11. Interrelationship of rainfall, temperature and reference evapotranspiration trends and their net response to the climate change in Central India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kundu, Sananda; Khare, Deepak; Mondal, Arun

    2016-09-01

    The monthly rainfall data from 1901 to 2011 and maximum and minimum temperature data from 1901 to 2005 are used along with the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) to analyze the climate trend of 45 stations of Madhya Pradesh. ET0 is calculated by the Hargreaves method from 1901 to 2005 and the computed data is then used for trend analysis. The temporal variation and the spatial distribution of trend are studied for seasonal and annual series with the Mann-Kendall (MK) test and Sen's estimator of slope. The percentage of change is used to find the rate of change in 111 years (rainfall) and 105 years (temperatures and ET0). Interrelationships among these variables are analyzed to see the dependency of one variable on the other. The results indicate a decreasing rainfall and increasing temperatures and ET0 trend. A similar pattern is noticeable in all seasons except for monsoon season in temperature and ET0 trend analysis. The highest increase of temperature is noticed during post-monsoon and winter. Rainfall shows a notable decrease in the monsoon season. The entire state of Madhya Pradesh is considered as a single unit, and the calculation of overall net change in the amount of the rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum) and ET0 is done to estimate the total loss or gain in monthly, seasonal and annual series. The results show net loss or deficit in the amount of rainfall and the net gain or excess in the temperature and ET0 amount.

  12. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  13. Climate change and agroecosystems: the effect of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Streck Nereu Augusto

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2 of the Earths atmosphere is increasing, which has the potential of increasing greenhouse effect and air temperature in the future. Plants respond to environment CO2 and temperature. Therefore, climate change may affect agriculture. The purpose of this paper was to review the literature about the impact of a possible increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature on crop growth, development, and yield. Increasing CO2 concentration increases crop yield once the substrate for photosynthesis and the gradient of CO2 concentration between atmosphere and leaf increase. C3 plants will benefit more than C4 plants at elevated CO2. However, if global warming will take place, an increase in temperature may offset the benefits of increasing CO2 on crop yield.

  14. The effects of increased stream temperatures on juvenile steelhead growth in the Yakima River Basin based on projected climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hardiman, Jill M.; Mesa, Matthew G.

    2013-01-01

    Stakeholders within the Yakima River Basin expressed concern over impacts of climate change on mid-Columbia River steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss), listed under the Endangered Species Act. We used a bioenergetics model to assess the impacts of changing stream temperatures—resulting from different climate change scenarios—on growth of juvenile steelhead in the Yakima River Basin. We used diet and fish size data from fieldwork in a bioenergetics model and integrated baseline and projected stream temperatures from down-scaled air temperature climate modeling into our analysis. The stream temperature models predicted that daily mean temperatures of salmonid-rearing streams in the basin could increase by 1–2°C and our bioenergetics simulations indicated that such increases could enhance the growth of steelhead in the spring, but reduce it during the summer. However, differences in growth rates of fish living under different climate change scenarios were minor, ranging from about 1–5%. Because our analysis focused mostly on the growth responses of steelhead to changes in stream temperatures, further work is needed to fully understand the potential impacts of climate change. Studies should include evaluating changing stream flows on fish activity and energy budgets, responses of aquatic insects to climate change, and integration of bioenergetics, population dynamics, and habitat responses to climate change.

  15. Update on global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Carol J

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Since many waterborne and vector-borne pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, health risks resulting from a warming and more variable climate are potentially huge. Global climate change involves the entire world, but the poorest countries will suffer the most. Nations are coming together to address what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with inevitable temperature increases. A key component of any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan is a strong public health infrastructure across the world. Nothing less than global public health security is at stake.

  16. Financing climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2006-03-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.

  17. The Impacts of Maximum Temperature and Climate Change to Current and Future Pollen Distribution in Skopje, Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Kendrovski

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND. The goal of the present paper was to assess the impact of current and future burden of the ambient temperature to pollen distributions in Skopje. METHODS. In the study we have evaluated a correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere of Skopje and maximum temperature, during the vegetation period of 1996, 2003, 2007 and 2009 as a current burden in context of climate change. For our analysis we have selected 9 representative of each phytoallergen group (trees, grasses, weeds. The concentration of pollen grains has been monitored by a Lanzoni volumetric pollen trap. The correlation between the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere and selected meteorological variable from weekly monitoring has been studied with the help of linear regression and correlation coefficients. RESULTS. The prevalence of the sensibilization of standard pollen allergens in Skopje during the some period shows increasing from 16,9% in 1996 to 19,8% in 2009. We detect differences in onset of flowering, maximum and end of the length of seasons for pollen. The pollen distributions and risk increases in 3 main periods: early spring, spring and summer which are the main cause of allergies during these seasons. The largest increase of air temperature due to climate change in Skopje is expected in the summer season. CONCLUSION. The impacts of climate change by increasing of the temperature in the next decades very likely will include impacts on pollen production and differences in current pollen season. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2012; 11(1.000: 35-40

  18. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  19. Comparison of Stream Temperature Modeling Approaches: The Case of a High Alpine Watershed in the Context of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallice, A.

    2015-12-01

    Stream temperature controls important aspects of the riverine habitat, such as the rate of spawning or death of many fish species, or the concentration of numerous dissolved substances. In the current context of accelerating climate change, the future evolution of stream temperature is regarded as uncertain, particularly in the Alps. This uncertainty fostered the development of many prediction models, which are usually classified in two categories: mechanistic models and statistical models. Based on the numerical resolution of physical conservation laws, mechanistic models are generally considered to provide more reliable long-term estimates than regression models. However, despite their physical basis, these models are observed to differ quite significantly in some aspects of their implementation, notably (1) the routing of water in the river channel and (2) the estimation of the temperature of groundwater discharging into the stream. For each one of these two aspects, we considered several of the standard modeling approaches reported in the literature and implemented them in a new modular framework. The latter is based on the spatially-distributed snow model Alpine3D, which is essentially used in the framework to compute the amount of water infiltrating in the upper soil layer. Starting from there, different methods can be selected for the computation of the water and energy fluxes in the hillslopes and in the river network. We relied on this framework to compare the various methodologies for river channel routing and groundwater temperature modeling. We notably assessed the impact of each these approaches on the long-term stream temperature predictions of the model under a typical climate change scenario. The case study was conducted over a high Alpine catchment in Switzerland, whose hydrological and thermal regimes are expected to be markedly affected by climate change. The results show that the various modeling approaches lead to significant differences in the

  20. Multi-Model Projection of July-August Climate Extreme Changes over China under CO2 Doubling. Part II: Temperature

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Hongmei; FENG Lei; ZHOU Tianjun

    2011-01-01

    This is the second part of the authors' analysis on the output of 24 coupled climate models from the Twentieth-Century Climate in Coupled Models (20C3M) experiment and 1% per year CO2 increase experiment (to doubling) (lpctto2x) of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP3). The study focuses on the potential changes of July-August temperature extremes over China. The pattern correlation coefficients of the simulated temperature with the observations are 0.6-0.9, which are higher than the results for precipitation. However, most models have cold bias compared to observation, with a larger cold bias over western China (>5℃) than over eastern China (<2℃). The multi-model ensemble (MME)exhibits a significant increase of temperature under the lpctto2x scenario. The amplitude of the MME warming shows a northwest-southeast decreasing gradient. The warming spread among the models (~1℃-2℃) is less than MME warming (~2℃-4℃), indicating a relativelyrobust temperature change under CO2doubling. Further analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory coupled climate model version 2.1(GFDL-CM2.1) simulations suggests that the warming pattern may be related to heat transport by summer monsoons. The contrast of cloud effects also has contributions. The different vertical structures of warming over northwestern China and southeastern China may be attributed to the different natures of vertical circulations. The deep, moist convection over southeastern China is an effective mechanism for "transporting"the warming upward, leading to more upper-level warming. In northwestern China, the warming is more surface-orientated, possibly due to the shallow, dry convection.

  1. Future PMPs Estimation in Korea under AR5 RCP 8.5 Climate Change Scenario: Focus on Dew Point Temperature Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okjeong, Lee; Sangdan, Kim

    2016-04-01

    According to future climate change scenarios, future temperature is expected to increase gradually. Therefore, it is necessary to reflect the effects of these climate changes to predict Probable Maximum Precipitations (PMPs). In this presentation, PMPs will be estimated with future dew point temperature change. After selecting 174 major storm events from 1981 to 2005, new PMPs will be proposed with respect to storm areas (25, 100, 225, 400, 900, 2,025, 4,900, 10,000 and 19,600 km2) and storm durations (1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 12, 18, 24, 48 and 72 hours) using the Korea hydro-meteorological method. Also, orographic transposition factor will be applied in place of the conventional terrain impact factor which has been used in previous Korean PMPs estimation reports. After estimating dew point temperature using future temperature and representative humidity information under the Korea Meteorological Administration AR5 RCP 8.5, changes in the PMPs under dew point temperature change will be investigated by comparison with present and future PMPs. This research was supported by a grant(14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  2. Climate Change and National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    atmosphere, which is causing warming of global temperatures as well as more extreme and less predictable weather patterns. While this issue is debated in...develop unique, policy-relevant solutions to complex global challenges. About the CCAPS Program The Climate Change and African Political Stability...political circles, scientists overwhelmingly agree that human-induced or anthropogenic climate change is real. Given the complexity of the issue, there

  3. Assessment of climatic factors influence on interannual changes in the global surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusakova, Maria; Karlin, Lev

    2014-05-01

    A model to assess a number of factors such as TSI, albedo, cloudiness and greenhouse gases including water vapour affecting global surface air temperature (SAT) changes has been developed. To develop the model solar energy transformation in the atmosphere and the other radiation fluxes transformation were investigated. It's a common knowledge that some part of the incoming solar energy is reflected into space by the Earth's surface, aerosol and cloud particles. A contribution of these components to changes in the reflected solar energy was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. During the period of 2001 - 2010, clouds were found to be the basic contributor to the changes in reflected shortwave radiation. Some part of outgoing terrestrial radiation is retained in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, water vapour and cloudiness. A contribution of these components to changes in the absorbed longwave radiation was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. It was estimated that the contribution of water vapour was dominant during the analyzed period. The developed parameterization of global albedo made it possible to assess the contribution of TSI to global SAT changes. Making use of the parameterizations listed above the model has been improved. The model calculations showed that the our projections of global SAT to 2030 were lower than IPCC estimates.

  4. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  5. Climate Change and Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    expansion of large hydropower and reservoir construction can increase social resilience through associated economic development . However, the same...of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences of climate change, Vietnam is highly likely to experience a variety of negative...iii ABSTRACT Climate Change and Vietnam As one of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences

  6. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  7. Spatiotemporal analysis of temperature-variation patterns under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Feifei; Wang, Xuan; Cai, Yanpeng; Yang, Zhifeng; Li, Chunhui

    2012-06-15

    Occurrence of temperature anomaly has greatly affected natural cycles of water resources in Lancang River basin in China, which is the upper reach of Mekong River. An integrated spatiotemporal decomposition and analysis method was proposed for the identification of temperature-variation patterns under changing climatic conditions in the basin. This method was based on the combination of S-mode empirical orthogonal function analysis, IDW interpolation, liner regression, weighted moving average and Mann Kendall methods. Results indicated that the first two modes extracted nearly 80% of spatiotemporal variations in temperature. Temperature in the whole basin followed the same variation trend through the first mode analysis. Sensitive areas were mainly located in the southwest of the basin, which occupied nearly half of the basin. The associated time series presented that the basin appeared transition from cold periods to warm periods. Temperature increased significantly over the period of 1960 to 2009 at annual and seasonal scales, particularly over 1990s. At the same time, the most significant rising occurred in winter and the least in summer. In the second mode, a west-east inverse phase pattern of temperature variations was a distinct feature in most of the basin. Temporal trend indicated that the increasing trend in the west region was slightly stronger than that in the east. This was particularly the case of edge areas almost vertical juncture with monsoons. This research is not only helpful in improving understanding of temperature response to global warming in the basin but also provides a basis for basin management.

  8. Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of warming seawater on the spatial extent of suitable versus unsuitable habitats for temperate seaweed Ecklonia cava, which is predominantly found in southern Japanese waters. SST data were generated using the most recent multiple climate projection models and emission scenarios (the Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) used in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). In addition, grazing by Siganus fuscescens, an herbivorous fish, was evaluated under the four RCP simulations. Our results suggest that continued warming may drive a poleward shift in the distribution of E. cava, with large differences depending on the climate scenario. For the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6), most existing E. cava populations would not be impacted by seawater warming directly but would be adversely affected by intensified year-round grazing. For the highest emission scenario (RCP8.5), previously suitable habitats throughout coastal Japan would become untenable for E. cava by the 2090s, due to both high-temperature stress and intensified grazing. Our projections highlight the importance of not only mitigating regional warming due to climate change, but also protecting E. cava from herbivores to conserve suitable habitats on the Japanese coast.

  9. Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

    2014-01-01

    Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now, precipi...... variability in temperature are ecologically important. Embracing complexity in future climate change experiments in general is therefore crucial.......Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now......, precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies...

  10. Thermal reaction norms and the scale of temperature variation: latitudinal vulnerability of intertidal nacellid limpets to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon A Morley

    Full Text Available The thermal reaction norms of 4 closely related intertidal Nacellid limpets, Antarctic (Nacella concinna, New Zealand (Cellana ornata, Australia (C. tramoserica and Singapore (C. radiata, were compared across environments with different temperature magnitude, variability and predictability, to test their relative vulnerability to different scales of climate warming. Lethal limits were measured alongside a newly developed metric of "duration tenacity", which was tested at different temperatures to calculate the thermal reaction norm of limpet adductor muscle fatigue. Except in C. tramoserica which had a wide optimum range with two break points, duration tenacity did not follow a typical aerobic capacity curve but was best described by a single break point at an optimum temperature. Thermal reaction norms were shifted to warmer temperatures in warmer environments; the optimum temperature for tenacity (T(opt increased from 1.0°C (N. concinna to 14.3°C (C. ornata to 18.0°C (an average for the optimum range of C. tramoserica to 27.6°C (C. radiata. The temperature limits for duration tenacity of the 4 species were most consistently correlated with both maximum sea surface temperature and summer maximum in situ habitat logger temperature. Tropical C. radiata, which lives in the least variable and most predictable environment, generally had the lowest warming tolerance and thermal safety margin (WT and TSM; respectively the thermal buffer of CT(max and T(opt over habitat temperature. However, the two temperate species, C. ornata and C. tramoserica, which live in a variable and seasonally unpredictable microhabitat, had the lowest TSM relative to in situ logger temperature. N. concinna which lives in the most variable, but seasonally predictable microhabitat, generally had the highest TSMs. Intertidal animals live at the highly variable interface between terrestrial and marine biomes and even small changes in the magnitude and predictability of their

  11. Evidence of maternal effects on temperature preference in side-blotched lizards: implications for evolutionary response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paranjpe, Dhanashree A; Bastiaans, Elizabeth; Patten, Amy; Cooper, Robert D; Sinervo, Barry

    2013-07-01

    Natural populations respond to selection pressures like increasing local temperatures in many ways, including plasticity and adaptation. To predict the response of ectotherms like lizards to local temperature increase, it is essential to estimate phenotypic variation in and determine the heritability of temperature-related traits like average field body temperature (T b) and preferred temperature (T p). We measured T p of Uta stansburiana in a laboratory thermal gradient and assessed the contribution of sex, reproductive status and throat color genotype to phenotypic variation in T b of adult lizards. Females had higher T p than males. However, they temporarily preferred lower temperature when gravid than when nongravid. Using a nested half-sib design for genetic crosses in the laboratory, we estimated relative contributions of additive genetic variation and maternal effects to T p of hatchlings. Our results show that maternal effects, but not additive genetic variation, influence T p of hatchlings in U. stansburiana. Maternal T p and the presence or absence of blue throat color alleles significantly influenced T p of hatchlings. We discuss ecological and evolutionary consequences of these maternal effects in the context of rapid climate change and natural selection that we measure on progeny survival to maturity as a function of maternal T p.

  12. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  13. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  14. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  15. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  16. Simulated Climate Change Effects of Snowpack Manipulations on Soil Temperature and Moisture in the Sierra Nevada Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, B. G.; Jasoni, R. L.; Arnone, J.

    2012-12-01

    Future changes in climate are predicted to significantly affect the type and amount of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California and Nevada. Because most of the yearly precipitation in this region falls as snow, changes in snowfall amount, snowfall timing, and duration of the snowpack may dramatically affect the timing and persistence of soil temperature and moisture, and biological processes dependent on these soil factors. The objective of our study was to quantify the effects of manipulating snowpack amounts on soil temperature and moisture over a two year period, including both the addition and removal of snow in a Pinus jeffreii (Jeffrey Pine) forest located northeast of Lake Tahoe, Nevada. Soil temperatures measured during the first winter (above average snow year) remained higher in control plots when snow was present, and in snow-addition plots, than in snow-removal plots. However, these effects did not persist in the second year when total snowfall amounted to only 20% of that occurring in the first year. Surprisingly, the effects on soil moisture persisted through the summer of year two with soil VWC in snow removal plots averaging approximately 50% drier than the snow addition plots (6.5% average VWC in snow removal and 13.2% in snow addition plots) and 13% drier on average than the control plots (7.5% average VWC in control plots).These results suggest the possibility of prolonged reductions in soil moisture, soil microbial activity, plant growth, and even increased danger of wildfires if anthropogenic climate change reduces snowfall amount and snowpack duration.

  17. Temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by salmonines in Lakes Michigan and Huron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Yu-Chun; Madenjian, Charles P.; Bunnell, David B.; Lofgren, Brent M.; Perroud, Marjorie

    2015-01-01

    We used bioenergetics models to investigate temperature effects induced by climate change on the growth and consumption by Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, lake trout Salvelinus namaycush, and steelhead O. mykiss in Lakes Michigan and Huron. We updated biological inputs to account for recent changes in the food webs and used temperature inputs in response to regional climate observed in the baseline period (1964–1993) and projected in the future period (2043–2070).Bioenergetics simulations were run across multiple age-classes and across all four seasons in different scenarios of prey availability. Due to the increased capacity of prey consumption, future growth and consumption by these salmonines were projected to increase substantially when prey availability was not limited. When prey consumption remained constant, future growth of these salmonines was projected to decrease in most cases but increase in some cases where the increase in metabolic cost can be compensated by the decrease in waste (egestion and excretion) loss. Consumption by these salmonines was projected to increase the most during spring and fall when prey energy densities are relatively high. Such seasonality benefits their future growth through increasing annual gross energy intake. Our results indicated that lake trout and steelhead would be better adapted to the warming climate than Chinook salmon. To maintain baseline growth into the future, an increase of 10 % in baseline prey consumption was required for Chinook salmon but considerably smaller increases, or no increases, in prey consumption were needed by lake trout and steelhead.

  18. [Air quality and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loft, Steffen

    2009-10-26

    Air quality, health and climate change are closely connected. Ozone depends on temperature and the greenhouse gas methane from cattle and biomass. Pollen presence depends on temperature and CO2. The effect of climate change on particulate air pollution is complex, but the likely net effect is greater health risks. Reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by reduced livestock production and use of combustion for energy production, transport and heating will also improve air quality. Energy savings in buildings and use of CO2 neutral fuels should not deteriorate indoor and outdoor air quality.

  19. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  20. Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Scott; Delage, François; Wang, Guomin; Smith, Ian; Kociuba, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Observed surface temperature trends over the period 1998-2012/2014 have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short-trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in the model values and the implications for global warming generally. Here we re-examine these issues, but as they relate to changes over much longer-term changes. We find that on multi-decadal time scales there is little evidence for any change in the observed global warming rate, but some evidence for a recent temporary slowdown in the warming rate in the Pacific. This multi-decadal slowdown can be partly explained by a cool phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and a short-term excess of La Niña events. We also analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP climate models. All of the model simulations examined simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This difference cannot be fully explained by observed internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. Models which simulate the greatest global warming over the past half-century also project warming that is among the highest of all models by the end of the twenty-first century, under both low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Given that the same models are poorest in representing observed multi-decadal temperature change, confidence in the highest projections is reduced.

  1. Analyzing the Effects of Climate Change on Sea Surface Temperature in Monitoring Coral Reef Health in the Florida Keys Using Sea Surface Temperature Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Jason; Burbank, Renane; Billiot, Amanda; Schultz, Logan

    2011-01-01

    This presentation discusses use of 4 kilometer satellite-based sea surface temperature (SST) data to monitor and assess coral reef areas of the Florida Keys. There are growing concerns about the impacts of climate change on coral reef systems throughout the world. Satellite remote sensing technology is being used for monitoring coral reef areas with the goal of understanding the climatic and oceanic changes that can lead to coral bleaching events. Elevated SST is a well-documented cause of coral bleaching events. Some coral monitoring studies have used 50 km data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) to study the relationships of sea surface temperature anomalies to bleaching events. In partnership with NOAA's Office of National Marine Sanctuaries and the University of South Florida's Institute for Marine Remote Sensing, this project utilized higher resolution SST data from the Terra's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and AVHRR. SST data for 2000-2010 was employed to compute sea surface temperature anomalies within the study area. The 4 km SST anomaly products enabled visualization of SST levels for known coral bleaching events from 2000-2010.

  2. What drives cold-related excess mortality in a south Asian tropical monsoon climate-season vs. temperatures and diurnal temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Katrin; Kinney, Patrick L.

    2016-12-01

    Despite the tropical climate which is characterized by generally high temperatures and persistent mild temperatures during the winter season, Bangladesh, along with many other tropical countries, experiences strong winter and cold-related excess mortality. The objective of this paper was to analyse the nature of these cold effects and understand the role of season vs. temperature and diurnal changes in temperature. For approaching these questions, we applied different Poisson regression models. Temperature as well as diurnal temperature range (DTR) were considered as predictor variables. Different approaches to seasonality adjustment were evaluated and special consideration was given to seasonal differences in atmospheric effects. Our findings show that while seasonality adjustment affected the magnitude of cold effects, cold-related mortality persisted regardless the adjustment approach. Strongest effects of low temperatures were observed at the same day (lag 1) with an increase of 1.7% (95% CI = 0.86-2.54%) per 1 °C decrease in temperature during the winter season. Diurnal temperature affected mortality with increasing levels at higher ranges. Mortality increased with 0.97% (95% CI = 0.17-1.75%) when looking at the entire season, but effects of DTR were not significant during winter when running a seasonal model. Different from effects observed in the mid-latitudes, cold effects in Bangladesh occurred on a very short time scale highlighting the role of temperature versus season. Insufficient adaptation with regard to housing and clothing might lead to such cold-related increases in mortality despite rather moderate temperature values. Although the study did not demonstrate an effect of DTR during the cold season, the strong correlation with (minimum) temperature might cause a multicollinearity problem and effects are difficult to attribute to one driver.

  3. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... in the future, then there is also moral reason to address these harms if they materialize now. We argue that these principles are applicable to climate change, and that given the commitment of wealthy countries to a "common but differentiated responsibility," they lead to a commitment to address or compensate...

  4. Population and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Landis MacKellar, F.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2000-11-01

    Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the 21st century: population growth (and associated demographic trends such as aging) and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is comprehensible to members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students in courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

  5. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  6. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  7. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  8. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  9. Effects of climate change on water requirements and phenological period of major crops in Heihe River basin, China - Based on the accumulated temperature threshold method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Dongmei; Xu, Xinyi; Yan, Denghua

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, global climate change has significantly caused a serious crisis of water resources throughout the world. However, mainly through variations in temperature, climate change will affect water requirements of crop. It is obvious that the rise of temperature affects growing period and phenological period of crop directly, then changes the water demand quota of crop. Methods including accumulated temperature threshold and climatic tendency rate were adopted, which made up for the weakness of phenological observations, to reveal the response of crop phenological change during the growing period. Then using Penman-Menteith model and crop coefficients from the United Nations Food& Agriculture Organization (FAO), the paper firstly explored crop water requirements in different growth periods, and further forecasted quantitatively crop water requirements in Heihe River Basin, China under different climate change scenarios. Results indicate that: (i) The results of crop phenological change established in the method of accumulated temperature threshold were in agreement with measured results, and (ii) there were many differences in impacts of climate warming on water requirement of different crops. The growth periods of wheat and corn had tendency of shortening as well as the length of growth periods. (ii)Results of crop water requirements under different climate change scenarios showed: when temperature increased by 1°C, the start time of wheat growth period changed, 2 days earlier than before, and the length of total growth period shortened 2 days. Wheat water requirements increased by 1.4mm. However, corn water requirements decreased by almost 0.9mm due to the increasing temperature of 1°C. And the start time of corn growth period become 3 days ahead, and the length of total growth period shortened 4 days. Therefore, the contradiction between water supply and water demands are more obvious under the future climate warming in Heihe River Basin, China.

  10. Climate change and cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satterthwaite, David

    2006-10-15

    What is done, or not done, in cities in relation to climate change over the next 5-10 years will affect hundreds of millions of people, because their lives and livelihoods are at risk from global warming. What is done in cities will also have a major influence on whether the escalating risks for the whole planet will be reduced or eliminated. Climate change needs to be considered in all development plans and investments - local, regional, national and international. Urban growth must be made more climate-resilient and help reduce, rather than increase, greenhouse gas emissions. This will not be done by the market; it can only be done by governments.

  11. Climate change and temperature-dependent biogeography: oxygen limitation of thermal tolerance in animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pörtner, H. O.

    2001-03-01

    Recent years have shown a rise in mean global temperatures and a shift in the geographical distribution of ectothermic animals. For a cause and effect analysis the present paper discusses those physiological processes limiting thermal tolerance. The lower heat tolerance in metazoa compared with unicellular eukaryotes and bacteria suggests that a complex systemic rather than molecular process is limiting in metazoa. Whole-animal aerobic scope appears as the first process limited at low and high temperatures, linked to the progressively insufficient capacity of circulation and ventilation. Oxygen levels in body fluids may decrease, reflecting excessive oxygen demand at high temperatures or insufficient aerobic capacity of mitochondria at low temperatures. Aerobic scope falls at temperatures beyond the thermal optimum and vanishes at low or high critical temperatures when transition to an anaerobic mitochondrial metabolism occurs. The adjustment of mitochondrial densities on top of parallel molecular or membrane adjustments appears crucial for maintaining aerobic scope and for shifting thermal tolerance. In conclusion, the capacity of oxygen delivery matches full aerobic scope only within the thermal optimum. At temperatures outside this range, only time-limited survival is supported by residual aerobic scope, then anaerobic metabolism and finally molecular protection by heat shock proteins and antioxidative defence. In a cause and effect hierarchy, the progressive increase in oxygen limitation at extreme temperatures may even enhance oxidative and denaturation stress. As a corollary, capacity limitations at a complex level of organisation, the oxygen delivery system, define thermal tolerance limits before molecular functions become disturbed.

  12. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  13. A stable, unbiased, long-term satellite based data record of sea surface temperature from ESA's Climate Change Initiative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rayner, Nick; Good, Simon; Merchant, Chris

    2013-04-01

    The study of climate change demands long-term, stable observational records of climate variables such as sea surface temperature (SST). ESA's Climate Change Initiative was set up to unlock the potential of satellite data records for this purpose. As part of this initiative, 13 projects were established to develop the data records for different essential climate variables - aerosol, cloud, fire, greenhouse gases, glaciers, ice sheets, land cover, ocean colour, ozone, sea ice, sea level, soil moisture and SST. In this presentation we describe the development work that has taken place in the SST project and present new prototype data products that are available now for users to trial. The SST project began in 2010 and has now produced two prototype products. The first is a long-term product (covering mid-1991 - 2010 currently, but with a view to update this in the future), which prioritises length of data record and stability over other considerations. It is based on data from the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) and Advanced Very-High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) series of satellite instruments. The product aims to combine the favourable stability and bias characteristics of ATSR data with the geographical coverage achieved with the AVHRR series. Following an algorithm selection process, an optimal estimation approach to retrieving SST from the satellite measurements from both sensors was adopted. The retrievals do not depend on in situ data and so this data record represents an independent assessment of SST change. In situ data are, however, being used to validate the resulting data. The second data product demonstrates the coverage that can be achieved using the modern satellite observing system including, for example, geostationary satellite data. Six months worth of data have been processed for this demonstration product. The prototype SST products will be released in April to users to trial in their work. The long term product will be available as

  14. Assessment of simulated rainfall and temperature from the regional climate model REMO and future changes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Tchawoua, Clément; Haensler, Andreas

    2016-07-01

    This work investigates spatial and temporal changes in rainfall and temperature over Central Africa, using historical and representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the regional climate model REMO forced by two general climate models: the Europe-wide Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) and the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We found that in the present period (1980-2005), the spatial distribution of rainfall is simulated with an annual spatial pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.76 for REMO driven by EC-Earth and 0.74 for REMO driven by MPI-ESM respectively when compared to CRU data. In terms of temperature, the annual PCC is 0.93 for the two REMO outputs. According to the climatology of Central Africa, we subdivided the study area into five sub-regions, we also noticed that the annual and seasonal PCC depend on the considered sub-region. For the future period (2070-2095), temperature is projected to increase following all the three scenarios. The rainfall amount is projected to decrease by up to 5 mm/day towards the end of the twenty first century under RCP8.5 scenario, and by 1-2 mm/day under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios over Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo, north-western Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Lake Victoria. Significant decrease is predicted to occur mostly in the northern part of the domain under RCP8.5 scenario. However, future rainfall over High Lands of Cameroon, Adamawa Plateau, north-eastern DRC and Atlantic Ocean is projected to increase.

  15. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  16. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  17. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  18. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  19. Climate change affects carbon allocation to the soil in shrublands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorissen, A.; Tietema, A.; Joosten, N.N.; Estiarte, M.; Peñuelas, J.; Sowerby, A.; Emmett, B.; Beier, J.C.

    2004-01-01

    Climate change may affect ecosystem functioning through increased temperatures or changes in precipitation patterns. Temperature and water availability are important drivers for ecosystem processes such as photosynthesis, carbon translocation, and organic matter decomposition. These climate changes

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  1. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  2. New estimates of temperature response of leaf photosynthesis in Amazon forest trees, its acclimation to mean temperature change and consequences for modelling climate response to rain forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kruijt, B.; Jans, W.; Vasconcelos, S.; Tribuzy, E. S.; Felsemburgh, C.; Eliane, M.; Rowland, L.; da Costa, A. C. L.; Meir, P.

    2014-12-01

    In many dynamic vegetation models, degradation of the tropical forests is induced because they assume that productivity falls rapidly when temperatures rise in the region of 30-40°C. Apart plant respiration, this is due to the assumptions on the temperature optima of photosynthetic capacity, which are low and can differ widely between models, where in fact hardly any empirical information is available for tropical forests. Even less is known about the possibility that photosynthesis will acclimate to changing temperatures. The objective of this study to is to provide better estimates for optima, as well as to determine whether any acclimation to temperature change is to be expected. We present both new and hitherto unpublished data on the temperature response of photosynthesis of Amazon rainforest trees, encompassing three sites, several species and five field campaigns. Leaf photosynthesis and its parameters were determined at a range of temperatures. To study the long-term (seasonal) acclimation of this response, this was combined with an artificial, in situ, multi-season leaf heating experiment. The data show that, on average for all non-heated cases, the photosynthetic parameter Vcmax weakly peaks between 35 and 40 ˚C, while heating does not have a clearly significant effect. Results for Jmax are slightly different, with sharper peaks. Scatter was relatively high, which could indicate weak overall temperature dependence. The combined results were used to fit new parameters to the various temperature response curve functions in a range of DGVMs. The figure shows a typical example: while the default Jules model assumes a temperature optimum for Vcmax at around 33 ˚C, the data suggest that Vcmax keeps rising up to at least 40 ˚C. Of course, calculated photosynthesis, obtained by applying this Vcmax in the Farquhar model, peaks at lower temperature. Finally, the implication of these new model parameters for modelled climate change impact on modelled Amazon

  3. Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Attainment of Water Temperature Criteria in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    There is increasing evidence that our planet is warming and this warming is also resulting in rising sea levels. Estuaries which are located at the interface between land and ocean are impacted by these changes. We used CE-QUAL-W2 water quality model to predict changes in water...

  4. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  5. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  6. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    fresh water. Movements of migrants from northern Africa and the Middle-East are already a security problem for Europe . This phenomenon is likely to be...Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http://library.globalchange.gov/climate...06/2013. 21 U.S. Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http

  7. IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kanchan Joshi

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change has materialized as the leading global environmental concern. Agriculture is one of the zones most critically distressed by climate alteration. As global temperature rises and climate conditions become more erratic posing threat to the vegetation, biodiversity, biological progression and have enduring effect on food security as well as human health. The present review emphasizes multiple consequences of climate change on agricultural productivity.

  8. Effects of spatial pattern of green space on land surface temperature: implications for sustainable urban planning and climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maimaitiyiming, M.; Ghulam, A.

    2013-12-01

    The urban heat island (UHI) refers to the phenomenon of higher atmospheric and surface temperatures occurring in urban areas than in the surrounding rural areas. Numerous studies have shown that increased percent cover of green space (PLAND) can significantly decrease land surface temperatures (LST). Fewer studies, however, have investigated the effects of configuration of green space on LST. This paper aims at to fill this gap using oasis city Aksu in northwestern China as a case study. PLAND along with two configuration metrics are used to measure the composition and configuration of green space. The metrics are calculated by moving window method based on a green space map derived from Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery, and LST data are retrieved from Landsat TM thermal band. Normalized mutual information measure is employed to investigate the relationship between LST and the spatial pattern of green space. The results show that while the PLAND is the most important variable that elicits LST dynamics, spatial configuration of green space also has significant effect on LST. In addition, the variance of LST is largely explained by both composition and configuration of green space. Results from this study can expand our understanding of the relationship between LST and vegetation, and provide insights for sustainable urban planning and management under changing climate.

  9. Responses of alpine biodiversity to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Yang Liu; Jian Zhang; Wanqin Yang

    2009-01-01

    The alpine belt is the temperature-driven treeless region between the timberline and the snowline. Alpine belts are ideal sites for monitoring climate change because species in mountain habitats are especially sensitive to climate change. Global warming is shifting the distribution of alpine biodiversity and is leading to glacial retreat, implying that alterations in alpine biodiversity are indicators of climate change. Therefore, more attention has been given to changes in species compositio...

  10. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  11. Climate regimes and water temperature changes in the Columbia River: bioenergetic implications for predators of juvenile salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petersen, J.H.; Kitchell, J.F.

    2001-01-01

    We examined how climatic regime shifts may have affected predation rates on juvenile Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) by northern squawfish (Ptychocheilus oregonensis, also called northern pikeminnow), smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu), and walleye (Stizostedion vitreum) in the Columbia River. During 1933-1996, oceanic, coastal, and freshwater indices of climate were highly correlated, and an index for the Columbia River Basin suggested that climate shifts may have occurred about 1946, 1958, 1969, and 1977. Summer water temperature varied as much as 2??C between climate periods. We used a bioenergetics model for northern squawfish, the most important piscivore, to predict that predation on salmonids would have been 26-31% higher during two periods with relatively warm spring-summer water temperatures (1933-1946, 1978-1996) than during an extremely cold period (1947-1958). Predicted predation rates of northern squawfish were 68-96% higher in the warmest year compared with the coldest year. Predation rates of smallmouth bass and walleye on juvenile salmonids varied among climate periods similar to rates predicted for northern squawfish. Climatic effects need to be understood in both freshwater and nearshore marine habitats, since growth rates of salmon populations are especially sensitive to mortality during early life stages.

  12. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  13. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  14. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  15. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  16. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  17. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7.......4 billion during 2003–2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management...

  18. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pančić

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1 and different temperatures (1, 5 and 8 °C to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by ∼20–50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more uniform response was detected at pH 7.1 with most of the strains exhibiting reduced growth rates by 20–37% compared to pH 8.0. It should be emphasized that a significant interaction between temperature and pH was found, meaning that the combination of the two parameters affected growth differently than when considering one at a time. Based on these results, we anticipate that the polar diatom F. cylindrus will be unaffected by changes in temperature and pH within the range expected by the end of the century. In each simulated scenario, the variation in growth rates among the strains was larger than the variation observed due to the whole range of changes in either pH or temperature. Climate change may therefore not affect the species as such, but may lead to changes in the population structure of the species, with the strains exhibiting high phenotypic plasticity, in terms of temperature and pH tolerance towards future conditions, dominating the population.

  19. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  20. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  1. Climate change conditions (elevated CO2 and temperature) and UV-B radiation affect grapevine (Vitis vinifera cv. Tempranillo) leaf carbon assimilation, altering fruit ripening rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Lüscher, J; Morales, F; Sánchez-Díaz, M; Delrot, S; Aguirreolea, J; Gomès, E; Pascual, I

    2015-07-01

    The increase in grape berry ripening rates associated to climate change is a growing concern for wine makers as it rises the alcohol content of the wine. The present work studied the combined effects of elevated CO2, temperature and UV-B radiation on leaf physiology and berry ripening rates. Three doses of UV-B: 0, 5.98, 9.66 kJm(-2)d(-1), and two CO2-temperature regimes: ambient CO2-24/14 °C (day/night) (current situation) and 700 ppm CO2-28/18 °C (climate change) were imposed to grapevine fruit-bearing cuttings from fruit set to maturity under greenhouse-controlled conditions. Photosynthetic performance was always higher under climate change conditions. High levels of UV-B radiation down regulated carbon fixation rates. A transient recovery took place at veraison, through the accumulation of flavonols and the increase of antioxidant enzyme activities. Interacting effects between UV-B and CO2-temperature regimes were observed for the lipid peroxidation, which suggests that UV-B may contribute to palliate the signs of oxidative damage induced under elevated CO2-temperature. Photosynthetic and ripening rates were correlated. Thereby, the hastening effect of climate change conditions on ripening, associated to higher rates of carbon fixation, was attenuated by UV-B radiation.

  2. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  3. Elevated temperature is more effective than elevated [CO2 ] in exposing genotypic variation in Telopea speciosissima growth plasticity: implications for woody plant populations under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Guomin; Rymer, Paul D; Duan, Honglang; Smith, Renee A; Tissue, David T

    2015-10-01

    Intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity is a critical determinant of plant species capacity to cope with climate change. A long-standing hypothesis states that greater levels of environmental variability will select for genotypes with greater phenotypic plasticity. However, few studies have examined how genotypes of woody species originating from contrasting environments respond to multiple climate change factors. Here, we investigated the main and interactive effects of elevated [CO2 ] (CE ) and elevated temperature (TE ) on growth and physiology of Coastal (warmer, less variable temperature environment) and Upland (cooler, more variable temperature environment) genotypes of an Australian woody species Telopea speciosissima. Both genotypes were positively responsive to CE (35% and 29% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively), but only the Coastal genotype exhibited positive growth responses to TE . We found that the Coastal genotype exhibited greater growth response to TE (47% and 85% increase in whole-plant dry mass and leaf area, respectively) when compared with the Upland genotype (no change in dry mass or leaf area). No intraspecific variation in physiological plasticity was detected under CE or TE , and the interactive effects of CE and TE on intraspecific variation in phenotypic plasticity were also largely absent. Overall, TE was a more effective climate factor than CE in exposing genotypic variation in our woody species. Our results contradict the paradigm that genotypes from more variable climates will exhibit greater phenotypic plasticity in future climate regimes.

  4. Climate change and the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  5. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... the strategies used by officials to enable climate change action. A long running criticism of institutional theory is the emphasis on how institutions constrain actions rather than act as productive phenomena that facilitate action. Emergent strands within new institutional theory emphasise the role of agency...

  6. Climate Change Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass R.; Posner, Eric A.

    2007-01-01

    Greenhouse gas reductions would cost some nations much more than others and benefit some nations far less than others. Significant reductions would impose especially large costs on the United States, and recent projections suggest that the United States has relatively less to lose from climate change. In these circumstances, what does justice require the United States to do? Many people believe that the United States is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions beyond the point that is ...

  7. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  8. Climate change and disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

    2006-03-01

    Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

  9. Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: a proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voorhees, A Scott; Fann, Neal; Fulcher, Charles; Dolwick, Patrick; Hubbell, Bryan; Bierwagen, Britta; Morefield, Philip

    2011-02-15

    Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and is likely to increase heat-related human health morbidity and mortality risks. The objective of this work was to develop a proof-of-concept approach for estimating excess heat-related premature deaths in the continental United States resulting from potential changes in future temperature using the BenMAP model. In this approach we adapt the methods and tools that the US Environmental Protection Agency uses to assess air pollution health impacts by incorporating temperature modeling and heat mortality health impact functions. This new method demonstrates the ability to apply the existing temperature-health literature to quantify prospective changes in climate-sensitive heat-related mortality. We compared estimates of future temperature with and without climate change and applied heat-mortality health functions to estimate relative changes in heat-related premature mortality. Using the A1B emissions scenario, we applied the GISS-II global circulation model downscaled to 36-km using MM5 and formatted using the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor. For averaged temperatures derived from the 5 years 2048-2052 relative to 1999-2003 we estimated for the warm season May-September a national U.S. estimate of annual incidence of heat-related mortality to be 3700-3800 from all causes, 3500 from cardiovascular disease, and 21 000-27 000 from nonaccidental death, applying various health impact functions. Our estimates of mortality, produced to validate the application of a new methodology, suggest the importance of quantifying heat impacts in economic assessments of climate change.

  10. An Astronomer's View of Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Morton, Donald C

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes some of the astronomical effects that could be important for understanding the ice ages, historic climate changes and the recent temperature increase. These include changes in the sun's luminosity, periodic changes in the earth's orbital parameters, the sun's orbit around our galaxy, the variability of solar activity and the anticorrelation of cosmic ray flux with that activity. Finally recent trends in solar activity and global temperatures are compared with the predictions of climate models.

  11. Rising temperatures and dwindling water supplies? Perception of climate change among residents of the Spanish Mediterranean tourist coastal areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    March, Hug; Saurí, David; Olcina, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    In this article, we discuss the results of a survey on the perception of climate change in the 14 "tourist zones" (as defined by the Spanish Statistical Institute, INE) that stretch from the French border to Gibraltar alongside the Spanish Mediterranean coast, including the Balearic Islands. Our sample consisted of 1,014 telephone interviews stratified according to the number of tourists staying in each zone. Respondents showed concern for the likely impacts of climate change on jobs and thought that climate change would reduce the economic activity of their areas. Responses were also pessimistic regarding future water availability but agreed with the development of alternative sources such as desalination and water re-use. Household size, educational levels, and employment tended to be the most significant statistical explanatory factors regarding attitudes toward climate change. Respondents in larger households (a variable not tested in the literature as far as we know), respondents with higher education, and respondents working for a wage tended to express more concerns than the rest.

  12. European climate change policy beyond 2012

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2009-11-15

    There is an increasing scientific consensus that human activities do trigger climate changes. Actual forecasts predict temperature increases that are likely to be beyond the adaptation potential of ecosystems. These considerations play a major role in shaping public opinion and the media landscape, culminating in the view that Europe needs to play a leading role in combating climate change.

  13. Enchytraeidae (Oligochaeta) in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maraldo, Kristine

    The background for this thesis was to investigate the effect of climate change (increased CO2, temperature and prolonged drought) on field communities of enchytraeids dominated by the species Cognettia sphagnetorum. In the short-term, enchytraeids appear to be unaffected by the climate change when...

  14. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  15. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  16. Climate change regional review: Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Sharmina, Maria; Anderson, Kevin; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2013-01-01

    With climate change, an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has aimed to position the country as one of the leaders of the global process for addressing climate change. This article reviews a breadth of literature to analyze the politico-economic situation in Russia with regard to international climate change negotiations, related domestic policies, societal attitudes, and climatic change impacts on Russia's territory. The analysis demonstra...

  17. Undocumented migration in response to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Riosmena, Fernando; HUNTER, LORI M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

    2015-01-01

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration...

  18. Shallow groundwater thermal sensitivity to climate change and land cover disturbances: derivation of analytical expressions and implications for stream temperature projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. L. Kurylyk

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is expected to increase stream temperatures, and the projected warming may alter the spatial extent of habitat for coldwater fish and other aquatic taxa. Recent studies have proposed that stream thermal sensitivities, derived from short term air temperature variations, can be employed to infer future stream warming due to long term climate change. However, this approach does not consider the potential for streambed heat fluxes to increase due to gradual warming of shallow groundwater. The temperature of shallow groundwater is particularly important for the thermal regimes of groundwater-dominated streams and rivers. Also, other recent stream temperature studies have investigated how land surface perturbations, such as wildfires or timber harvesting, can influence stream temperatures by changing surface heat fluxes, but these studies have typically not considered how these surface disturbances can also alter shallow groundwater temperatures and consequent streambed heat fluxes. In this study, several analytical solutions to the one-dimensional unsteady advection–diffusion equation for subsurface heat transport are employed to investigate the timing and magnitude of groundwater warming due to seasonal and long term variability in land surface temperatures. Novel groundwater thermal sensitivity formulae are proposed that accommodate different surface warming scenarios. The thermal sensitivity formulae demonstrate that shallow groundwater will warm in response to climate change and other surface perturbations, but the timing and magnitude of the warming depends on the rate of surface warming, subsurface thermal properties, aquifer depth, and groundwater velocity. The results also emphasize the difference between the thermal sensitivity of shallow groundwater to short term (e.g. seasonal and long term (e.g. multi-decadal land surface temperature variability, and thus demonstrate the limitations of using short term air and water

  19. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...

  20. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come the

  1. Economics: Higher costs of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sterner, Thomas

    2015-11-01

    An attempt to reconcile the effects of temperature on economic productivity at the micro and macro levels produces predictions of global economic losses due to climate change that are much higher than previous estimates. See Letter p.235

  2. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  3. Changes in C-N metabolism under elevated CO2 and temperature in Indian mustard (Brassica juncea L.): an adaptation strategy under climate change scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seth, Chandra Shekhar; Misra, Virendra

    2014-11-01

    The present study was performed to investigate the possible role of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) metabolism in adaptation of Indian mustard (Brassica juncea L.) growing under ambient (370 ± 15 ppm) and elevated CO2 (700 ± 15 ppm), and jointly in elevated CO2 and temperature (30/22 °C for day/night). The key enzymes responsible for C-N metabolism were studied in different samples of Brassica juncea L. collected from ambient (AMB), elevated (ELE) and ELExT growth conditions. Total percent amount of C and N in leaves were particularly estimated to establish a clear understanding of aforesaid metabolism in plant adaptation. Furthermore, key morphological and physiological parameters such as plant height, leaf area index, dry biomass, net photosynthetic rate, stomatal conductance, transpiration, total protein and chlorophyll contents were also studied in relation to C/N metabolism. The results indicated that the C-metabolizing enzymes, such as (ribulose-1,5-bisphosphate carboxylase/oxygenase, phosphoenolpyruvate carboxylase, malate dehydrogenase, NAD-malic enzyme, NADP-malic enzyme and citrate synthase) and the N-metabolizing enzymes, such as (aspartate amino transferase, glutamine synthetase, nitrate reductase and nitrite reductase) showed significantly (P ELExT > AMB growth conditions. This is also evident by significant (P adaptation in Brassica juncea L. against elevated CO2 and temperature prevailing in climate change scenarios.

  4. Climate change between the mid and late Holocene in northern high latitudes – Part 1: Survey of temperature and precipitation proxy data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Nilsson

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available We undertake a study in two parts, where the overall aim is to quantitatively compare results from climate proxy data with results from several climate model simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project for the mid-Holocene period and the pre-industrial, conditions for the pan-arctic region, north of 60° N. In this first paper, we survey the available published local temperature and precipitation proxy records. We also discuss and quantifiy some uncertainties in the estimated difference in climate between the two periods as recorded in the available data. The spatial distribution of available published local proxies has a marked geographical bias towards land areas surrounding the North Atlantic sector, especially Fennoscandia. The majority of the reconstructions are terrestrial, and there is a large over-representation towards summer temperature records. The available reconstructions indicate that the northern high latitudes were warmer in both summer, winter and the in annual mean temperature at the mid-Holocene (6000 BP ± 500 yrs compared to the pre-industrial period (1500 AD ± 500 yrs. For usage in the model-data comparisons (in Part 1, we estimate the calibration uncertainty and also the internal variability in the proxy records, to derive a combined minimum uncertainty in the reconstructed temperature change between the two periods. Often, the calibration uncertainty alone, at a certain site, exceeds the actual reconstructed climate change at the site level. In high-density regions, however, neighbouring records can be merged into a composite record to increase the signal-to-noise ratio. The challenge of producing reliable inferred climate reconstructions for the Holocene cannot be underestimated, considering the fact that the estimated temperature and precipitation fluctuations during this period are in magnitude similar to, or lower than, the uncertainties the reconstructions. We advocate a more widespread

  5. Role of Low Frequency Sea Surface Temperature Modes with a Changing Climate in Modulating Atlantic Hurricane Activity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    LaRow, Timothy [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    2014-08-03

    The SSTs used in our study come from the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) (Gent et al 2011) and from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis (CanESM2) (Chylek et al20ll) climate models from the fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) (Taylor et al2012). We've examined the tropical cyclones using both the historical simulation that employs volcanic and aerosol forcing as well as the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5). In addition, we've compared the present day North Atlantic tropical cyclone metrics from a previous study (LaRow, 2013) to these climate change experiments. The experimental setup is shown in Table 1. We considered the CMIP5 experiment number '3.2 historical' (Taylor et al,201l), which provides simulations of the recent past (1850-2005). The second set of CMIP5 SSTs is the RCp4.5 experiment where the radiative forcing stabilizes at 45W m-2 after 2100 (experiment number 4.1 in Taylor etal2}ll).

  6. Climate change and health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Last, J.M. [Ottawa Univ., ON (Canada); Chiotti, Q.P. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-12-31

    Adverse effects such as heat-related illnesses are felt on human health as a result of climate change. Those effects can also be the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather resulting in injury and death, a wider array of insect vectors for diseases, as well as increased risk of allergic, food-borne and water-borne diseases. Coastal ecosystems are altered, sea levels are rising and millions of people will need to relocate in the next century as a result of global warming. Keeping disaster plans, maintaining epidemiological monitoring and surveillance, and issuing advisory messages concerning the risks to human health are some of the responses required from public health officials. The establishment of standards, the development of policies on food and nutrition and the defining of priorities for research are important aspects that must be kept in mind. The authors indicated that multidisciplinary approaches are better suited to find solutions to the challenges encountered due to climate change than the narrow methods used in the past. refs., 4 tabs.

  7. Communicating Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    I will discuss the various challenges scientists must confront in efforts to communicate the science and implications of climate change to the public. Among these challenges is the stiff headwind we must fight of a concerted disinformation effort designed to confuse the public about the nature of our scientific understanding of the problem and the reality of the underlying societal threat. We also must fight the legacy of the public’s perception of the scientist. That is to say, we must strive to communicate in plainspoken language that neither insults the intelligence of our audience, nor hopelessly loses them in jargon and science-speak. And through all of this, we must maintain our composure and good humor even in the face of what we might consider the vilest of tactics by our opposition. When it comes to how best to get our message out to the broader public, I don’t pretend to have all of the answers. But I will share some insights and anecdotes that I have accumulated over the course of my own efforts to inform the public about the reality of climate change and the potential threat that it represents.

  8. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  9. Climate Reconstructions of the Younger Dryas: An ELA Model Investigating Variability in ELA Depressions, Temperature, and Precipitation Changes for the Graubϋnden Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keeler, D. G.; Rupper, S.; Schaefer, J. M.; Finkel, R. C.

    2015-12-01

    The high sensitivity of mountain glaciers to even small perturbations in climate, combined with a near global distribution, make alpine glaciers an important target for terrestrial paleoclimate reconstructions. The geomorphic remnant of past glaciers can yield important insights into past climate, particularly in regions where other methods of reconstruction are not possible. The quantitative conversion of these changes in geomorphology to a climate signal, however, presents a significant challenge. A particular need exists for a versatile climate reconstruction method applicable to diverse glacierized regions around the globe. Because the glacier equilibrium line altitude (ELA) provides a more explicit comparison of climate than properties such as glacier length or area, ELA methods lend themselves well to such a need, and allow for a more direct investigation of the primary drivers of mountain glaciations during specific events. Here, we present an ELA model for quantifying changes in climate based on changes in glacier extent, while accounting for differences in glacier width, glacier shape, bed topography, ice thickness, and glacier length. The model furthermore provides bounds on the ΔELA using Monte Carlo simulations. These methods are validated using published mass balances and ELA measurements from 4 modern glaciers in the European Alps. We then use this ELA model, combined with a surface mass and energy balance model, to estimate the changes in temperature/precipitation between the Younger Dryas (constrained by 10Be surface exposure ages) and the present day for three glacier systems in the Graubϋnden Alps. Our results indicate an ELA depression in this area of 257 m ±45 m during the Younger Dryas (YD) relative to today. This corresponds to a 1.3 °C ±0.36 °C decrease in temperature or a 156% ±30% increase in precipitation relative to today. These results indicate the likelihood of a predominantly temperature-driven change rather than a strong

  10. Undocumented migration in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986-1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

  11. Climate Change and Water Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA tools and workbooks guide users to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts. Various tools can help manage risks, others can visualize climate projections in maps. Included are comprehensive tool kits hosted by other federal agencies.

  12. Climate Change and Water Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    To take action on climate impacts, practitioners must understand how climate change will effect their region, and the country. Training provided here by EPA and partners allow users to better grasp the issues and make decisions based on current science.

  13. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  14. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  15. Five-years of microenvironment data along an urban-rural transect; temperature and CO2 concentrations in urban area at levels expected globally with climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    George, Kate; Ziska, Lewis H; Bunce, James A; Quebedeaux, Bruno

    2007-11-01

    The heat island effect and the high use of fossil fuels in large city centers is well documented, but by how much fossil fuel consumption is elevating atmospheric CO2 concentrations and whether elevations in both atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are consistent from year to year are less well known. Our aim was to record atmospheric CO2 concentrations, air temperature and other environmental variables in an urban area and compare it to suburban and rural sites to see if urban sites are experiencing climates expected globally in the future with climate change. A transect was established from Baltimore city center (Urban site), to the outer suburbs of Baltimore (suburban site) and out to an organic farm (rural site). At each site a weather station was set-up to monitor environmental variables annually for five years. Atmospheric CO2 was significantly increased on average by 66 ppm from the rural to the urban site over the five years of the study. Air temperature was significantly higher at the urban site (14.8 oC) compared to the suburban (13.6 oC) and rural (12.7 oC) sites. Relative humidity was not different between sites but vapor pressure deficit (VPD) was significantly higher at the urban site compared to the suburban and rural sites. During wet years relative humidity was significantly increased and VPD significantly reduced. Increased nitrogen deposition at the rural site (2.1 % compared to 1.8 and 1.2 % at the suburban and urban sites) was small enough not to affect soil nitrogen content. Dense urban areas with large populations and high vehicular traffic have significantly different microclimates compared to outlying suburban and rural areas. The increases in atmospheric CO2 and air temperature are similar to changes predicted in the short term with global climate change, therefore providing an environment suitable for studying future effects of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

  16. The Environmental Justice Dimensions of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Miranda, Marie Lynn; Hastings, Douglas Andrew; Aldy, Joseph Edgar; Schlesinger, William H.

    2011-01-01

    Nations around the world are considering strategies to mitigate the severe impacts of climate change predicted to occur in the twenty-first century. Many countries, however, lack the wealth, technology, and government institutions to effectively cope with climate change. This study investigates the varying degrees to which developing and developed nations will be exposed to changes in three key variables: temperature, precipitation, and runoff. We use Geographic Information Systems (GIS) anal...

  17. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  18. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  19. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  20. Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya; FUJII, Masahiko; YAMANAKA, Yasuhiro

    2014-01-01

    Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of war...

  1. Projecting the impacts of rising seawater temperatures on the distribution of seaweeds around Japan under multiple climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Yamano, Hiroya; FUJII, Masahiko; YAMANAKA, Yasuhiro

    2015-01-01

    Seaweed beds play a key role in providing essential habitats and energy to coastal areas, with enhancements in productivity and biodiversity and benefits to human societies. However, the spatial extent of seaweed beds around Japan has decreased due to coastal reclamation, water quality changes, rising water temperatures, and heavy grazing by herbivores. Using monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1960 to 2099 and SST-based indices, we quantitatively evaluated the effects of war...

  2. Multi-model ensemble simulation and projection in the climate change in the Mekong River Basin. Part I: temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yong; Wang, Fengyou; Li, Yi; Cai, Tijiu

    2014-11-01

    This paper evaluates the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating annual and decadal temperature in the Mekong River Basin from 1950 to 2005. By use of Bayesian multi-model averaging method, the future projection of temperature variation under different scenarios are also analyzed. The results show, the performances of climate model are more accurate in space than time, the model can catch the warming characteristics in the Mekong river Basin, but the accuracy of simulation is not good enough. Bayesian multi-model averaging method can improve the annual and decadal temperature simulation when compared to a single result. The projected temperature in Mekong River will increase by 0.88 °C/100 year, 2.15 °C/100 year and 4.96 °C/100 year for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, over the twenty-first century. The findings will be beneficial for local people and policy-maker to formulate regional strategies against the potential menaces of warming scenarios.

  3. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  4. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  5. A review of the likely effects of climate change on anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta, with particular reference to water temperature and flow.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, B; Jonsson, N

    2009-12-01

    The present paper reviews the effects of water temperature and flow on migrations, embryonic development, hatching, emergence, growth and life-history traits in light of the ongoing climate change with emphasis on anadromous Atlantic salmon Salmo salar and brown trout Salmo trutta. The expected climate change in the Atlantic is for milder and wetter winters, with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow, decrease in ice-covered periods and frequent periods with extreme weather. Overall, thermal limits for salmonids are species specific. Scope for activity and growth and optimal temperature for growth increase with temperature to an optimal point before constrain by the oxygen content of the water. The optimal temperature for growth decreases with increasing fish size and varies little among populations within species, whereas the growth efficiency may be locally adapted to the temperature conditions of the home stream during the growth season. Indirectly, temperature influences age and size at smolting through its effect on growth. Time of spawning, egg hatching and emergence of the larvae vary with temperature and selective effects on time of first feeding. Traits such as age at first maturity, longevity and fecundity decrease with increasing temperature whilst egg size increases with temperature. Water flow influences the accessibility of rivers for returning adults and speed of both upstream and downstream migration. Extremes in water flow and temperature can decrease recruitment and survival. There is reason to expect a northward movement of the thermal niche of anadromous salmonids with decreased production and population extinction in the southern part of the distribution areas, migrations earlier in the season, later spawning, younger age at smolting and sexual maturity and increased disease susceptibility and mortality. Future research challenges are summarized at the end of the paper.

  6. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  7. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions.

  8. Sewer Systems and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the impact of climate change on the overflows of sewer systems is assessed. The emphasis is on the overflows of combined sewer systems. The purpose is twofold: first, to obtain a first-order estimate of the impact of climate change on overflows of sewer systems; and second, to obtain insight into the relevant meteorological variables that are important with respect to climate change. A reservoir model is used to assess the impact of climate change on several combinations of st...

  9. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  10. Estimation of potential evapotranspiration from extraterrestrial radiation, air temperature and humidity to assess future climate change effects on the vegetation of the Northern Great Plains, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominique M.; Symstad, Amy J.; Ferschweiler, Ken; Hobbins, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The potential evapotranspiration (PET) that would occur with unlimited plant access to water is a central driver of simulated plant growth in many ecological models. PET is influenced by solar and longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed, and humidity, but it is often modeled as a function of temperature alone. This approach can cause biases in projections of future climate impacts in part because it confounds the effects of warming due to increased greenhouse gases with that which would be caused by increased radiation from the sun. We developed an algorithm for linking PET to extraterrestrial solar radiation (incoming top-of atmosphere solar radiation), as well as temperature and atmospheric water vapor pressure, and incorporated this algorithm into the dynamic global vegetation model MC1. We tested the new algorithm for the Northern Great Plains, USA, whose remaining grasslands are threatened by continuing woody encroachment. Both the new and the standard temperature-dependent MC1 algorithm adequately simulated current PET, as compared to the more rigorous PenPan model of Rotstayn et al. (2006). However, compared to the standard algorithm, the new algorithm projected a much more gradual increase in PET over the 21st century for three contrasting future climates. This difference led to lower simulated drought effects and hence greater woody encroachment with the new algorithm, illustrating the importance of more rigorous calculations of PET in ecological models dealing with climate change.

  11. Climate Impacts of Deforestation/Land-Use Changes in Central South America in the PRECIS Regional Climate Model: Mean Precipitation and Temperature Response to Present and Future Deforestation Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo O. Canziani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs, potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960–2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

  12. Climate Impacts of Deforestation/Land-Use Changes in Central South America in the PRECIS Regional Climate Model: Mean Precipitation and Temperature Response to Present and Future Deforestation Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canziani, Pablo O.; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961–2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960–2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia. PMID:22645487

  13. Climate impacts of deforestation/land-use changes in Central South America in the PRECIS regional climate model: mean precipitation and temperature response to present and future deforestation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canziani, Pablo O; Carbajal Benitez, Gerardo

    2012-01-01

    Deforestation/land-use changes are major drivers of regional climate change in central South America, impacting upon Amazonia and Gran Chaco ecoregions. Most experimental and modeling studies have focused on the resulting perturbations within Amazonia. Using the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, driven by ERA-40 reanalysis and ECHAM4 Baseline model for the period 1961-2000 (40-year runs), potential effects of deforestation/land-use changes in these and other neighboring ecoregions are evaluated. Current 2002 and estimated 2030 land-use scenarios are used to assess PRECIS's response during 1960-2000. ERA-40 and ECHAM4 Baseline driven runs yield similar results. Precipitation changes for 2002 and 2030 land-use scenarios, while significant within deforested areas, do not result in significant regional changes. For temperature significant changes are found within deforested areas and beyond, with major temperature enhancements during winter and spring. Given the current climate, primary effects of deforestation/land-use changes remain mostly confined to the tropical latitudes of Gran Chaco, and Amazonia.

  14. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-07

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  15. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-03-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  16. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  17. Untangling the Impacts of Climate Change on Waterborne Diseases: a Systematic Review of Relationships between Diarrheal Diseases and Temperature, Rainfall, Flooding, and Drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Karen; Woster, Andrew P; Goldstein, Rebecca S; Carlton, Elizabeth J

    2016-05-17

    Global climate change is expected to affect waterborne enteric diseases, yet to date there has been no comprehensive, systematic review of the epidemiological literature examining the relationship between meteorological conditions and diarrheal diseases. We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Collection for studies describing the relationship between diarrheal diseases and four meteorological conditions that are expected to increase with climate change: ambient temperature, heavy rainfall, drought, and flooding. We synthesized key areas of agreement and evaluated the biological plausibility of these findings, drawing from a diverse, multidisciplinary evidence base. We identified 141 articles that met our inclusion criteria. Key areas of agreement include a positive association between ambient temperature and diarrheal diseases, with the exception of viral diarrhea and an increase in diarrheal disease following heavy rainfall and flooding events. Insufficient evidence was available to evaluate the effects of drought on diarrhea. There is evidence to support the biological plausibility of these associations, but publication bias is an ongoing concern. Future research evaluating whether interventions, such as improved water and sanitation access, modify risk would further our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change on diarrheal diseases and aid in the prioritization of adaptation measures.

  18. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble

    OpenAIRE

    Diffenbaugh, Noah S; Giorgi, Filippo

    2012-01-01

    We use a statistical metric of multi-dimensional climate change to quantify the emergence of global climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 climate model ensemble. Our hotspot metric extends previous work through the inclusion of extreme seasonal temperature and precipitation, which exert critical influence on climate change impacts. The results identify areas of the Amazon, the Sahel and tropical West Africa, Indonesia, and the Tibetan Plateau as persistent regional climate change hotspots thro...

  19. Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, Gregg; Jacobs, Katharine; Buizer, James

    2008-06-01

    Climate Change Adaptation for Water Managers; Oracle, Arizona, 4-5 February 2008; The most visible manifestation of climate change in the American Southwest is its effects on water resources. Since 1999, the region's water supplies and major rivers have been tested by burgeoning population growth and drought. Model projections suggest increasing drought severity and duration due to rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and enhanced atmospheric circulation from the tropics (Hadley circulation).

  20. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  1. Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, Robert S.

    2013-01-01

    Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period

  2. Tight coupling between atmospheric ρCO2 and temperature change during the Late Triassic: observational evidence for enhanced climate sensitivity in a hothouse state

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knobbe, T.; Schaller, M. F.

    2015-12-01

    Climate sensitivity is the change in global equilibrium surface temperature per doubling of atmospheric ρCO2. Modern climate sensitivity, based on paleoclimate data and fast-feedback processes (Charney sensitivity), is observed to be ~3°C per doubling of CO2. However, Charney sensitivity may not be representative of ice-free hothouse states that have dominated most of Earth history where sensitivity may be higher. Few opportunities exist to empirically determine climate sensitivity during a hothouse state based on contemporaneous observations of ρCO2 and temperature. Here we present evidence for tight coupling between ρCO2 and temperature during the Late Triassic (end-Norian through Rhaetian) from the Newark basin and Lagonegro/Sicani basins, respectively. Detailed magnetostratigraphy and biostratigraphy allows for correlation between the Lagonegro and Sicani basins (Italy), which are magnetostratigraphically correlated to the Newark basin. Temperature is calculated from δ18O values of conodont apatite published from the Lagonegro and Sicani basins, while ρCO2 estimates are from pedogenic carbonates in the Newark basin. We find a distinct rise and subsequent fall in atmospheric ρCO2 that is precisely mirrored by a contemporaneous rise and fall in temperature. Between 212-209 Ma, we observe a concomitant increase in ρCO2 (1900 to 4800 ppm) and temperature (20 to 27°C), followed by a more protracted concomitant decrease in atmospheric ρCO2 (4800 to 2200 ppm) and temperature (27 to 21°C) from 209-202 Ma. We use simple numerical methods to calculate climate sensitivity for the Late Triassic from these complementary data sets and find that sensitivity through both a doubling and subsequent halving of pCO2 are on the order of 5°C, in close agreement with empirically based model assessments from younger sections. We note sensitivities as high as 7°C/doubling are observed when using the lowest pCO2 estimate allowed by the formal error window assigned to the

  3. [Climate change and Kyoto protocol].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ergasti, G; Pippia, V; Murzilli, G; De Luca D'Alessandro, E

    2009-01-01

    Due to industrial revolution and the heavy use of fossil fuels, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased dramatically during the last hundred years, and this has lead to an increase in mean global temperature. The environmental consequences of this are: the melting of the ice caps, an increase in mean sea-levels, catastrophic events such as floodings, hurricanes and earthquakes, changes to the animal and vegetable kingdoms, a growth in vectors and bacteria in water thus increasing the risk of infectious diseases and damage to agriculture. The toxic effects of the pollution on human health are both acute and chronic. The Kyoto Protocol is an important step in the campaign against climatic changes but it is not sufficient. A possible solution might be for the States which produce the most of pollution to adopt a better political stance for the environment and to use renewable resources for the production of energy.

  4. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  5. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  6. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  7. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    OpenAIRE

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simula...

  8. Sewer Systems and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the impact of climate change on the overflows of sewer systems is assessed. The emphasis is on the overflows of combined sewer systems. The purpose is twofold: first, to obtain a first-order estimate of the impact of climate change on overflows of sewer systems; and second, to obtain

  9. Ground water and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taylor, R.G.; Scanlon, B.; Döll, P.; Rodell, M.; Beek, R. van; Wada, Y.; Longuevergne, L.; Leblanc, M.; Famiglietti, J.S.; Edmunds, M.; Konikow, L.; Green, T.R.; Chen, J.; Taniguchi, M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; MacDonald, A.; Fan, Y.; Maxwell, R.M.; Yechieli, Y.; Gurdak, J.J.; Allen, D.M.; Shamsudduha, M.; Hiscock, K.; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2012-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate chang

  10. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  11. Generating Arguments about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

    2012-01-01

    This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.…

  12. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  13. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  14. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  15. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  16. Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deng, Yi

    2014-11-24

    DOE-GTRC-05596 11/24/2104 Collaborative Research: Process-Resolving Decomposition of the Global Temperature Response to Modes of Low Frequency Variability in a Changing Climate PI: Dr. Yi Deng (PI) School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Georgia Institute of Technology 404-385-1821, yi.deng@eas.gatech.edu El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Annular Modes (AMs) represent respectively the most important modes of low frequency variability in the tropical and extratropical circulations. The projection of future changes in the ENSO and AM variability, however, remains highly uncertain with the state-of-the-science climate models. This project conducted a process-resolving, quantitative evaluations of the ENSO and AM variability in the modern reanalysis observations and in climate model simulations. The goal is to identify and understand the sources of uncertainty and biases in models’ representation of ENSO and AM variability. Using a feedback analysis method originally formulated by one of the collaborative PIs, we partitioned the 3D atmospheric temperature anomalies and surface temperature anomalies associated with ENSO and AM variability into components linked to 1) radiation-related thermodynamic processes such as cloud and water vapor feedbacks, 2) local dynamical processes including convection and turbulent/diffusive energy transfer and 3) non-local dynamical processes such as the horizontal energy transport in the oceans and atmosphere. In the past 4 years, the research conducted at Georgia Tech under the support of this project has led to 15 peer-reviewed publications and 9 conference/workshop presentations. Two graduate students and one postdoctoral fellow also received research training through participating the project activities. This final technical report summarizes key scientific discoveries we made and provides also a list of all publications and conference presentations resulted from research activities at Georgia Tech. The main findings include

  17. Achieving Climate Change Absolute Accuracy in Orbit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, D. F.; Mlynczak, M. G.; Thome, K. J; Leroy, S.; Corliss, J.; Anderson, J. G.; Ao, C. O.; Bantges, R.; Best, F.; Bowman, K.; Brindley, H.; Butler, J. J.; Collins, W.; Dykema, J. A.; Doelling, D. R.; Feldman, D. R.; Fox, N.; Huang, X.; Holz, R.; Huang, Y.; Jennings, D.; Jin, Z.; Johnson, D. G.; Jucks, K.; Kato, S.; Kratz, D. P.; Liu, X.; Lukashin, C.; Mannucci, A. J.; Phojanamongkolkij, N.; Roithmayr, C. M.; Sandford, S.; Taylor, P. C.; Xiong, X.

    2013-01-01

    The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission will provide a calibration laboratory in orbit for the purpose of accurately measuring and attributing climate change. CLARREO measurements establish new climate change benchmarks with high absolute radiometric accuracy and high statistical confidence across a wide range of essential climate variables. CLARREO's inherently high absolute accuracy will be verified and traceable on orbit to Système Internationale (SI) units. The benchmarks established by CLARREO will be critical for assessing changes in the Earth system and climate model predictive capabilities for decades into the future as society works to meet the challenge of optimizing strategies for mitigating and adapting to climate change. The CLARREO benchmarks are derived from measurements of the Earth's thermal infrared spectrum (5-50 micron), the spectrum of solar radiation reflected by the Earth and its atmosphere (320-2300 nm), and radio occultation refractivity from which accurate temperature profiles are derived. The mission has the ability to provide new spectral fingerprints of climate change, as well as to provide the first orbiting radiometer with accuracy sufficient to serve as the reference transfer standard for other space sensors, in essence serving as a "NIST [National Institute of Standards and Technology] in orbit." CLARREO will greatly improve the accuracy and relevance of a wide range of space-borne instruments for decadal climate change. Finally, CLARREO has developed new metrics and methods for determining the accuracy requirements of climate observations for a wide range of climate variables and uncertainty sources. These methods should be useful for improving our understanding of observing requirements for most climate change observations.

  18. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  19. Climate change and agriculture: Mitigation and Adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neeteson, J.J.; Verhagen, A.

    2010-01-01

    Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere resulting in rising global temperatures and sea levels. Agriculture contributes significantly to climate change through the emission of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Continuation of th

  20. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  1. Climate change: a case study over India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sahai, A.K. [Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India)

    1998-12-31

    A brief account of various causes of climate change in recent decades and climate change trends in the Indian region is presented. Local temperature is one of the major climatic elements to record the changes in the atmospheric environment caused by industrialization and urbanization. Literature data show that there is either a cooling tendency or cessation of warming after the late 1950s at most of the Indian industrial cities. A case study of Nagpur, a centrally located city in India, is done to understand the possible causes of cooling. Nagpur is the only city in India for which a long-term record of temperature, for urban (Mayo Hospital) and relatively suburban (Sonegaon Airport) area, is available. The study of the diurnal asymmetry in maximum and minimum temperatures indicates that the role of suspended particulate matter dominates over that of increasing greenhouse gases.

  2. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  3. Chikungunya, climate change, and human rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meason, Braden; Paterson, Ryan

    2014-06-14

    Chikungunya is a re-emerging arbovirus that causes significant morbidity and some mortality. Global climate change leading to warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns allow mosquito vectors to thrive at altitudes and at locations where they previously have not, ultimately leading to a spread of mosquito-borne diseases. While mutations to the chikungunya virus are responsible for some portion of the re-emergence, chikungunya epidemiology is closely tied with weather patterns in Southeast Asia. Extrapolation of this regional pattern, combined with known climate factors impacting the spread of malaria and dengue, summate to a dark picture of climate change and the spread of this disease from south Asia and Africa into Europe and North America. This review describes chikungunya and collates current data regarding its spread in which climate change plays an important part. We also examine human rights obligations of States and others to protect against this disease.

  4. Risk communication on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2004-10-01

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration.

  5. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  6. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  7. Influence of climate change on the frequency of daytime temperature inversions and stagnation events in the Po Valley: historical trend and future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caserini, Stefano; Giani, Paolo; Cacciamani, Carlo; Ozgen, Senem; Lonati, Giovanni

    2017-02-01

    This work analyzes the frequency of days characterized by daytime temperature inversion and air stagnation events in the Po valley area. The analysis is focused on both historical series and future projections under climate change. Historical sounding data from two different Italian stations are used as well as future projections data, provided by CMCC-CCLM 4-8-19 regional climate model (MED-CORDEX initiative). A new method to detect layers of temperature inversion is also presented. The developed method computes the occurrence of a temperature inversion layer for a given day at 12 UTC without a detailed knowledge of temperature vertical profile. This method was validated using sounding data and applied to the model projections, under two different emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Under RCP4.5 intermediate emissions scenario, the occurrence of temperature inversions is projected to increase by 12 days/year (around + 10%) in the last decade of 21st century compared to 1986-2005 average. However, the increase in temperature inversions seems to be especially concentrated in the warm period. Under RCP8.5 extreme scenario, temperature inversions are still projected to increase, though to a lesser extent compared to RCP4.5 scenario (+ 6 days/year in the last decade of 21st century). A similar trend was found also for air stagnation events, which take into account the variation of precipitation pattern and wind strength. The expected increases are equal to + 13 days/year and + 11 days/year in the last decade of 21st century compared to 1986-2005 average, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios respectively.

  8. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  9. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  10. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    ) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... and flexibly reduces its green biomass under drought conditions. C. vulgaris is less flexible and hardly adjusts photosynthetic capacity or green biomass to drought or warming. Despite these differential responses, competitive interactions were robust. C. vulgaris, in the building phase, outcompetes D...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...

  11. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T.M. CORNEA

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on water resources – The most recent scientific assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC [6] concludes that, since the late 19th century, anthropogenic induced emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to an increase in global surface temperatures of about 0.3 to 0.6o C. Based on the IPCC’s scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions and aerosols a further increase of 2o C is expected by the year 2100. Plants, animals, natural and managed ecosystems, and human settlements are susceptible to variations in the storage, fluxes, and quality of water and sensitive to climate change. From urban and agricultural water supplies to flood management and aquatic ecosystem protection, global warming is affecting all aspects of water resource management. Rising temperatures, loss of snowpack, escalating size and frequency of flood events, and rising sea levels are just some of the impacts of climate change that have broad implications for the management of water resources. With robust scientific evidence showing that human-induced climate change is occurring, it is critical to understand how water quantity and quality might be affected. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the environmental risks caused by climate anomalies on water resources, to examine the negative impacts of a greenhouse warming on the supply and demand for water and the resulting socio-economic implications.

  12. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  13. Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E; Girvetz, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21st century.

  14. Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.; Cox, T.; Eyring, V.; Fowler, D.; Fuzzi, S.; Jockel, P.; Laj, P.; Lohmann, U.; Maione, M.; Monks, T.; Prevot, A. S. H.; Raes, F.; Richter, A.; Rognerud, B.; Schulz, M.; Shindell, D.; Stevenson, D. S.; Storelvmo, T.; Wang, W.-C.; vanWeele, M.; Wild, M.; Wuebbles, D.

    2011-01-01

    Chemically active climate compounds are either primary compounds such as methane (CH4), removed by oxidation in the atmosphere, or secondary compounds such as ozone (O3), sulfate and organic aerosols, formed and removed in the atmosphere. Man-induced climate-chemistry interaction is a two-way process: Emissions of pollutants change the atmospheric composition contributing to climate change through the aforementioned climate components, and climate change, through changes in temperature, dynamics, the hydrological cycle, atmospheric stability, and biosphere-atmosphere interactions, affects the atmospheric composition and oxidation processes in the troposphere. Here we present progress in our understanding of processes of importance for climate-chemistry interactions, and their contributions to changes in atmospheric composition and climate forcing. A key factor is the oxidation potential involving compounds such as O3 and the hydroxyl radical (OH). Reported studies represent both current and future changes. Reported results include new estimates of radiative forcing based on extensive model studies of chemically active climate compounds such as O3, and of particles inducing both direct and indirect effects. Through EU projects such as ACCENT, QUANTIFY, and the AEROCOM project, extensive studies on regional and sector-wise differences in the impact on atmospheric distribution are performed. Studies have shown that land-based emissions have a different effect on climate than ship and aircraft emissions, and different measures are needed to reduce the climate impact. Several areas where climate change can affect the tropospheric oxidation process and the chemical composition are identified. This can take place through enhanced stratospheric-tropospheric exchange of ozone, more frequent periods with stable conditions favouring pollution build up over industrial areas, enhanced temperature-induced biogenic emissions, methane releases from permafrost thawing, and enhanced

  15. What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Rowan; Suckling, Emma; Hawkins, Ed

    2015-11-13

    The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

  16. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  17. Time varying arctic climate change amplification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dubey, Manvendra K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen [DALLHOUSIE U; Wang, Muyin [NOAA/JISAO

    2009-01-01

    During the past 130 years the global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.75 K. Due to feedbacks -- including the snow/ice albedo feedback -- the warming in the Arctic is expected to proceed at a faster rate than the global average. Climate model simulations suggest that this Arctic amplification produces warming that is two to three times larger than the global mean. Understanding the Arctic amplification is essential for projections of future Arctic climate including sea ice extent and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the temperature records from the Arctic stations to show that (a) the Arctic amplification is larger at latitudes above 700 N compared to those within 64-70oN belt, and that, surprisingly; (b) the ratio of the Arctic to global rate of temperature change is not constant but varies on the decadal timescale. This time dependence will affect future projections of climate changes in the Arctic.

  18. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  19. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  20. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  1. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  2. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  3. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  4. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  5. Climate change and sustainability in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-07-01

    This paper discusses the climate history of the Earth, exploring some of the driving forces of climate change along the way. It points out that it may not be the gradual increase in global mean temperature that we have to fear the most. Rather the variability of the climate may pose an even greater threat to us. The paper outlines some possible future scenarios of climate change based on what we now think we know about the causes of climate change and possible future development in emissions of greenhouse gases. It then goes on to describe the current climate negotiations and possible political solutions in the near term, before concluding with a description of the more long-term fundamental challenges we face. The aim of the discussion is to provide a deeper understanding of the climate problem we are facing, as well as the challenges that lie ahead of us, individually as well as a region, in securing the climate aspect of a sustainable development for Europe and the world. The paper is based on a presentation given at the conference Rio + 10 in Dublin in September 2001, made possible by a kind contribution from the European Environment Agency. (author)

  6. Climate Change and Global Wine Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, G.V. [Department of Geography, Southern Oregon University, 1250 Siskiyou Blvd, Ashland, Oregon, 97520 (United States); White, M.A. [Department of Aquatic, Watershed, and Earth Resources, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, 84322 (United States); Cooper, O.R. [Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES, University of Colorado/NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, 80305 (United States); Storchmann, K. [Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, 06520 (United States)

    2005-12-01

    From 1950 to 1999 the majority of the world's highest quality wine-producing regions experienced growing season warming trends. Vintage quality ratings during this same time period increased significantly while year-to-year variation declined. While improved winemaking knowledge and husbandry practices contributed to the better vintages it was shown that climate had, and will likely always have, a significant role in quality variations. This study revealed that the impacts of climate change are not likely to be uniform across all varieties and regions. Currently, many European regions appear to be at or near their optimum growing season temperatures, while the relationships are less defined in the New World viticulture regions. For future climates, model output for global wine producing regions predicts an average warming of 2C in the next 50 yr. For regions producing high-quality grapes at the margins of their climatic limits, these results suggest that future climate change will exceed a climatic threshold such that the ripening of balanced fruit required for existing varieties and wine styles will become progressively more difficult. In other regions, historical and predicted climate changes could push some regions into more optimal climatic regimes for the production of current varietals. In addition, the warmer conditions could lead to more poleward locations potentially becoming more conducive to grape growing and wine production.

  7. Investigating the impact of land-use land-cover change on Indian summer monsoon daily rainfall and temperature during 1951–2005 using a regional climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Halder

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Daily moderate rainfall events, that constitute a major portion of seasonal summer monsoon rainfall over central India, have decreased significantly during the period 1951 till 2005. Mean and extreme near surface daily temperature during the monsoon season have also increased by a maximum of 1–1.5 °C. Using simulations made with a high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM4 with prescribed vegetation cover of 1950 and 2005, it is demonstrated that part of the above observed changes in moderate rainfall events and temperature have been caused by land-use land-cover change (LULCC which is mostly anthropogenic. Model simulations show that the increase in seasonal mean and extreme temperature over central India coincides with the region of decreased (increased forest (crop cover. The results also show that land-use land-cover alone causes warming in the extremes of daily mean and maximum temperatures by maximum of 1–1.2 °C, that is comparable with the observed increasing trend in the extremes. Decrease (increase in forest (crop cover reduces the evapotranspiration over land and large-scale convective instability, apart from decreasing the moisture convergence. These factors act together not only in reducing the moderate rainfall events over central India but also the amount of rainfall in that category, significantly. This is the most interesting result of this study. Additionally, the model simulations are repeated by removing the warming trend in sea surface temperatures. As a result, there is enhanced warming at the surface and decrease in moderate rainfall events over central India. Results from the additional experiments corroborate our initial findings and confirm the contribution of land-use land-cover change on increase in daily mean and extreme temperature and decrease in moderate rainfall events. This study not only demonstrates the important implications of LULCC over India, but also shows the necessity for inclusion of projected

  8. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  9. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  10. Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past-temperature reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Steen-Larsen, H. C.; Ortega, P.; Swingedouw, D.; Popp, T.; Vinther, B. M.; Oerter, H.; Sveinbjornsdottir, A. E.; Gudlaugsdottir, H.; Box, J. E.; Falourd, S.; Fettweis, X.; Gallée, H.; Garnier, E.; Gkinis, V.; Jouzel, J.; Landais, A.; Minster, B.; Paradis, N.; Orsi, A.; Risi, C.; Werner, M.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-08-01

    Combined records of snow accumulation rate, δ18O and deuterium excess were produced from several shallow ice cores and snow pits at NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling), covering the period from 1724 to 2007. They are used to investigate recent climate variability and characterise the isotope-temperature relationship. We find that NEEM records are only weakly affected by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal δ18O and accumulation variability is related to North Atlantic sea surface temperature and is enhanced at the beginning of the 19th century. No long-term trend is observed in the accumulation record. By contrast, NEEM δ18O shows multidecadal increasing trends in the late 19th century and since the 1980s. The strongest annual positive δ18O values are recorded at NEEM in 1928 and 2010, while maximum accumulation occurs in 1933. The last decade is the most enriched in δ18O (warmest), while the 11-year periods with the strongest depletion (coldest) are depicted at NEEM in 1815-1825 and 1836-1846, which are also the driest 11-year periods. The NEEM accumulation and δ18O records are strongly correlated with outputs from atmospheric models, nudged to atmospheric reanalyses. Best performance is observed for ERA reanalyses. Gridded temperature reconstructions, instrumental data and model outputs at NEEM are used to estimate the multidecadal accumulation-temperature and δ18O-temperature relationships for the strong warming period in 1979-2007. The accumulation sensitivity to temperature is estimated at 11 ± 2 % °C-1 and the δ18O-temperature slope at 1.1 ± 0.2 ‰ °C-1, about twice as large as previously used to estimate last interglacial temperature change from the bottom part of the NEEM deep ice core.

  11. Vegetation zones shift in changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava; Holtanova, Eva

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of climate patterns can be performed for each climate variable separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. In case of the Köppen-Trewartha classification it is integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also represent a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is used on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Furthermore, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries

  12. Climate Change in Developing Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.A.; Lasage, R.; Dorlands, C. (eds.) [Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-15

    This book presents an overview of the studies conducted by the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance programme. The programme was set up in recognition of the need for developing countries, in particular, to face the challenges confronting all countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The book presents an overview of the main results in 13 countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Surinam, Vietnam, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It provides a critical evaluation of the methodologies and approaches used, a cross-country synthesis and recommendations for further studies. Subjects dealt with include not only impact studies, but also vulnerability and adaptation, mitigation and climate related policy.

  13. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pancic, Marina; Hansen, Per Juel; Tammilehto, Anna;

    2015-01-01

    Abstract. The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5, and 8...... C) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other......, and therefore no effect on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by 20–50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among...

  14. Resilience to temperature and pH changes in a future climate change scenario in six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pančić, M.; Hansen, Peter Juul; Tammilehto, A.;

    2015-01-01

    The effects of ocean acidification and increased temperature on physiology of six strains of the polar diatom Fragilariopsis cylindrus from Greenland were investigated. Experiments were performed under manipulated pH levels (8.0, 7.7, 7.4, and 7.1) and different temperatures (1, 5 and 8 °C......) to simulate changes from present to plausible future levels. Each of the 12 scenarios was run for 7 days, and a significant interaction between temperature and pH on growth was detected. By combining increased temperature and acidification, the two factors counterbalanced each other, and therefore no effect...... on the growth rates was found. However, the growth rates increased with elevated temperatures by ∼20–50% depending on the strain. In addition, a general negative effect of increasing acidification on growth was observed. At pH 7.7 and 7.4, the growth response varied considerably among strains. However, a more...

  15. An Astronomer's View of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, Donald C.

    2014-01-01

    There are several astronomical effects that could be important for understanding climate changes such as the ice ages, the Medieval Maximum, the Little Ice Age, the 20th century temperature rise and the small decrease during the past 15 years. These effects include variations in the sun's luminosity, periodic changes in the earth's orbital parameters, the sun's orbit around our galaxy, the solar wind, the variability of solar activity and the anticorrelation of the galactic cosmic ray flux with that activity. With the publication of the Fifth Assessment Report to the Intergoverment Panel on Climate Change, it is useful to review these effects and the extent to which that report and previoius ones have recognized them. This paper also discusses recent trends in solar activity and global temperatures and compares the latter with the predictions of climate models.

  16. How does climate change influence Arctic mercury?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Gary A; Macdonald, Robie W; Outridge, Peter M; Wilson, Simon; Chételat, John; Cole, Amanda; Hintelmann, Holger; Loseto, Lisa L; Steffen, Alexandra; Wang, Feiyue; Zdanowicz, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that climate change is already having significant impacts on many aspects of transport pathways, speciation and cycling of mercury within Arctic ecosystems. For example, the extensive loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the concurrent shift from greater proportions of perennial to annual types have been shown to promote changes in primary productivity, shift foodweb structures, alter mercury methylation and demethylation rates, and influence mercury distribution and transport across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (bottom-up processes). In addition, changes in animal social behavior associated with changing sea-ice regimes can affect dietary exposure to mercury (top-down processes). In this review, we address these and other possible ramifications of climate variability on mercury cycling, processes and exposure by applying recent literature to the following nine questions; 1) What impact has climate change had on Arctic physical characteristics and processes? 2) How do rising temperatures affect atmospheric mercury chemistry? 3) Will a decrease in sea-ice coverage have an impact on the amount of atmospheric mercury deposited to or emitted from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how? 4) Does climate affect air-surface mercury flux, and riverine mercury fluxes, in Arctic freshwater and terrestrial systems, and if so, how? 5) How does climate change affect mercury methylation/demethylation in different compartments in the Arctic Ocean and freshwater systems? 6) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of freshwater food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of mercury? 7) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of marine food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of marine mercury? 8) What are the likely mercury emissions from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost under climate change scenarios? and 9) What can be learned from current mass balance inventories of mercury in the Arctic? The

  17. Climate change, water resources and child health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kistin, Elizabeth J; Fogarty, John; Pokrasso, Ryan Shaening; McCally, Michael; McCornick, Peter G

    2010-07-01

    Climate change is occurring and has tremendous consequences for children's health worldwide. This article describes how the rise in temperature, precipitation, droughts, floods, glacier melt and sea levels resulting from human-induced climate change is affecting the quantity, quality and flow of water resources worldwide and impacting child health through dangerous effects on water supply and sanitation, food production and human migration. It argues that paediatricians and healthcare professionals have a critical leadership role to play in motivating and sustaining efforts for policy change and programme implementation at the local, national and international level.

  18. Mental health effects of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanta Kumar Padhy

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We all know that 2014 has been declared as the hottest year globally by the Meteorological department of United States of America. Climate change is a global challenge which is likely to affect the mankind in substantial ways. Not only climate change is expected to affect physical health, it is also likely to affect mental health. Increasing ambient temperatures is likely to increase rates of aggression and violent suicides, while prolonged droughts due to climate change can lead to more number of farmer suicides. Droughts otherwise can lead to impaired mental health and stress. Increased frequency of disasters with climate change can lead to posttraumatic stress disorder, adjustment disorder, and depression. Changes in climate and global warming may require population to migrate, which can lead to acculturation stress. It can also lead to increased rates of physical illnesses, which secondarily would be associated with psychological distress. The possible effects of mitigation measures on mental health are also discussed. The paper concludes with a discussion of what can and should be done to tackle the expected mental health issues consequent to climate change.

  19. Shifts of climate zones in multi-model climate change experiments using the Koeppen climate classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanf, Franziska; Koerper, Janina; Spangehl, Thomas; Cubash, Ulrich [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie

    2012-04-15

    This study investigates the future changes in the climate zones' distribution of the Earth's land area due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in three IPCC SRES emissions scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The Koeppen climate classification is applied to climate simulations of seven atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and their multi-model mean. The evaluation of the skill of the individual climate models compared to an observation-reanalysis-based climate classification provides a first order estimate of relevant model uncertainties and serves as assessment for the confidence in the scenario projections. Uncertainties related to differences in simulation pathways of the future projections are estimated by both, the multi-model ensemble spread of the climate change signals for a given scenario and differences between different scenarios. For the recent climate the individual models fail to capture the exact Koeppen climate types in about 24-39 % of the global land area excluding Antarctica due to temperature and precipitation biases, while the multi-model ensemble mean simulates the present day observation-reanalysis-based distribution of the climate types more accurately. For the end of the 21{sup st} century compared to the present day climate the patterns of change are similar across the three scenarios, while the magnitude of change is largest for the highest emission scenario. Moreover, the temporal development of the climate shifts from the end of the 20st century and during the 21{sup st} century show that changes of the multi-model ensemble mean for the A2 and B1 scenario are generally within the ensemble spread of the individual models for the A1B scenario, illustrating that for the given range of scenarios the model uncertainty is even larger than the spread given by the different GHG concentration pathways. The multi-model ensemble mean's projections show climate shifts to dryer climates in the subtropics

  20. Recent changes in north-west Greenland climate documented by NEEM shallow ice core data and simulations, and implications for past temperature reconstructions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Steen-Larsen, H. C.; Ortega, P.; Swingedouw, D.; Popp, T.; Vinther, B. M.; Oerter, H.; Sveinbjornsdottir, A. E.; Gudlaugsdottir, H.; Box, J. E.; Falourd, S.; Fettweis, X.; Gallée, H.; Garnier, E.; Jouzel, J.; Landais, A.; Minster, B.; Paradis, N.; Orsi, A.; Risi, C.; Werner, M.; White, J. W. C.

    2015-01-01

    Combined records of snow accumulation rate, δ18O and deuterium excess were produced from several shallow ice cores and snow pits at NEEM (north-west Greenland), covering the period from 1724 to 2007. They are used to investigate recent climate variability and characterize the isotope-temperature relationship. We find that NEEM records are only weakly affected by inter-annual changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation. Decadal δ18O and accumulation variability is related to North Atlantic SST, and enhanced at the beginning of the 19th century. No long-term trend is observed in the accumulation record. By contrast, NEEM δ18O shows multi-decadal increasing trends in the late 19th century and since the 1980s. The strongest annual positive δ18O anomaly values are recorded at NEEM in 1928 and 2010, while maximum accumulation occurs in 1933. The last decade is the most enriched in δ18O (warmest), while the 11-year periods with the strongest depletion (coldest) are depicted at NEEM in 1815-1825 and 1836-1846, which are also the driest 11-year periods. The NEEM accumulation and δ18O records are strongly correlated with outputs from atmospheric models, nudged to atmospheric reanalyses. Best performance is observed for ERA reanalyses. Gridded temperature reconstructions, instrumental data and model outputs at NEEM are used to estimate the multi-decadal accumulation-temperature and δ18O-temperature relationships for the strong warming period in 1979-2007. The accumulation sensitivity to temperature is estimated at 11 ± 2% °C-1 and the δ18O-temperature slope at 1.1 ± 0.2‰ °C-1, about twice larger than previously used to estimate last interglacial temperature change from the bottom part of the NEEM deep ice core.

  1. Temperature-dependent sex determination in fish revisited: prevalence, a single sex ratio response pattern, and possible effects of climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natalia Ospina-Alvarez

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In gonochoristic vertebrates, sex determination mechanisms can be classified as genotypic (GSD or temperature-dependent (TSD. Some cases of TSD in fish have been questioned, but the prevalent view is that TSD is very common in this group of animals, with three different response patterns to temperature. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analyzed field and laboratory data for the 59 fish species where TSD has been explicitly or implicitly claimed so far. For each species, we compiled data on the presence or absence of sex chromosomes and determined if the sex ratio response was obtained within temperatures that the species experiences in the wild. If so, we studied whether this response was statistically significant. We found evidence that many cases of observed sex ratio shifts in response to temperature reveal thermal alterations of an otherwise predominately GSD mechanism rather than the presence of TSD. We also show that in those fish species that actually have TSD, sex ratio response to increasing temperatures invariably results in highly male-biased sex ratios, and that even small changes of just 1-2 degrees C can significantly alter the sex ratio from 1:1 (males:females up to 3:1 in both freshwater and marine species. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We demonstrate that TSD in fish is far less widespread than currently believed, suggesting that TSD is clearly the exception in fish sex determination. Further, species with TSD exhibit only one general sex ratio response pattern to temperature. However, the viability of some fish populations with TSD can be compromised through alterations in their sex ratios as a response to temperature fluctuations of the magnitude predicted by climate change.

  2. Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination in Fish Revisited: Prevalence, a Single Sex Ratio Response Pattern, and Possible Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ospina-Álvarez, Natalia; Piferrer, Francesc

    2008-01-01

    Background In gonochoristic vertebrates, sex determination mechanisms can be classified as genotypic (GSD) or temperature-dependent (TSD). Some cases of TSD in fish have been questioned, but the prevalent view is that TSD is very common in this group of animals, with three different response patterns to temperature. Methodology/Principal Findings We analyzed field and laboratory data for the 59 fish species where TSD has been explicitly or implicitly claimed so far. For each species, we compiled data on the presence or absence of sex chromosomes and determined if the sex ratio response was obtained within temperatures that the species experiences in the wild. If so, we studied whether this response was statistically significant. We found evidence that many cases of observed sex ratio shifts in response to temperature reveal thermal alterations of an otherwise predominately GSD mechanism rather than the presence of TSD. We also show that in those fish species that actually have TSD, sex ratio response to increasing temperatures invariably results in highly male-biased sex ratios, and that even small changes of just 1–2°C can significantly alter the sex ratio from 1∶1 (males∶females) up to 3∶1 in both freshwater and marine species. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate that TSD in fish is far less widespread than currently believed, suggesting that TSD is clearly the exception in fish sex determination. Further, species with TSD exhibit only one general sex ratio response pattern to temperature. However, the viability of some fish populations with TSD can be compromised through alterations in their sex ratios as a response to temperature fluctuations of the magnitude predicted by climate change. PMID:18665231

  3. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V. [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA (United States); Diaz, Henry F. [NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Nino events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region. (orig.)

  4. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  5. Changes in North Atlantic deep-sea temperature during climatic fluctuations of the last 25,000 years based on ostracode Mg/Ca ratios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dwyer, Gary S.; Cronin, Thomas M.; Baker, Paul A.; Rodriguez-Lazaro, Julio

    2000-01-01

    We reconstructed three time series of last glacial-to-present deep-sea temperature from deep and intermediate water sediment cores from the western North Atlantic using Mg/Ca ratios of benthic ostracode shells. Although the Mg/Ca data show considerable variability (“scatter”) that is common to single-shell chemical analyses, comparisons between cores, between core top shells and modern bottom water temperatures (BWT), and comparison to other paleo-BWT proxies, among other factors, suggest that multiple-shell average Mg/Ca ratios provide reliable estimates of BWT history at these sites. The BWT records show not only glacial-to-interglacial variations but also indicate BWT changes during the deglacial and within the Holocene interglacial stage. At the deeper sites (4500- and 3400-m water depth), BWT decreased during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the late Holocene, and possibly during the Younger Dryas. Maximum deep-sea warming occurred during the latest deglacial and early Holocene, when BWT exceeded modern values by as much as 2.5°C. This warming was apparently most intense around 3000 m, the depth of the modern-day core of North Atlantic deep water (NADW). The BWT variations at the deeper water sites are consistent with changes in thermohaline circulation: warmer BWT signifies enhanced NADW influence relative to Antarctic bottom water (AABW). Thus maximum NADW production and associated heat flux likely occurred during the early Holocene and decreased abruptly around 6500 years B.P., a finding that is largely consistent with paleonutrient studies in the deep North Atlantic. BWT changes in intermediate waters (1000-m water depth) of the subtropical gyre roughly parallel the deep BWT variations including dramatic mid-Holocene cooling of around 4°C. Joint consideration of the Mg/Ca-based BWT estimates and benthic oxygen isotopes suggests that the cooling was accompanied by a decrease in salinity at this site. Subsequently, intermediate waters warmed to modern

  6. Climatic impact of aircraft induced ozone changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Feneberg, B.; Ponater, M. [Deutsche Forschungs- und Versuchsanstalt fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Inst. fuer Physik der Atmosphaere

    1997-12-31

    The effect of aircraft induced ozone changes on the global climate is studied by means of the general circulation model ECHAM4. The zonal mean temperature signal is considered. In order to estimate the statistical significance of the climatic impact a multivariate statistical test hierarchy combined with the fingerprint method has been applied. Sensitivity experiments show a significant coherent temperature response pattern in the northern extra-tropics for mid-latitude summer conditions. It consists of a tropospheric warming of about 0.2 K with a corresponding stratospheric cooling of the same magnitude. (author) 16 refs.

  7. Climate change impacts on food system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  8. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Lawrence C; Hartter, Joel; Lemcke-Stampone, Mary; Moore, David W; Safford, Thomas G

    2015-01-01

    A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews) yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40%) concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15%) say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire) finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  9. Tracking Public Beliefs About Anthropogenic Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence C Hamilton

    Full Text Available A simple question about climate change, with one choice designed to match consensus statements by scientists, was asked on 35 US nationwide, single-state or regional surveys from 2010 to 2015. Analysis of these data (over 28,000 interviews yields robust and exceptionally well replicated findings on public beliefs about anthropogenic climate change, including regional variations, change over time, demographic bases, and the interacting effects of respondent education and political views. We find that more than half of the US public accepts the scientific consensus that climate change is happening now, caused mainly by human activities. A sizable, politically opposite minority (about 30 to 40% concede the fact of climate change, but believe it has mainly natural causes. Few (about 10 to 15% say they believe climate is not changing, or express no opinion. The overall proportions appear relatively stable nationwide, but exhibit place-to-place variations. Detailed analysis of 21 consecutive surveys within one fairly representative state (New Hampshire finds a mild but statistically significant rise in agreement with the scientific consensus over 2010-2015. Effects from daily temperature are detectable but minor. Hurricane Sandy, which brushed New Hampshire but caused no disaster there, shows no lasting impact on that state's time series-suggesting that non-immediate weather disasters have limited effects. In all datasets political orientation dominates among individual-level predictors of climate beliefs, moderating the otherwise positive effects from education. Acceptance of anthropogenic climate change rises with education among Democrats and Independents, but not so among Republicans. The continuing series of surveys provides a baseline for tracking how future scientific, political, socioeconomic or climate developments impact public acceptance of the scientific consensus.

  10. Climate Change in New England | Energy and Global Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-10

    EPA Region 1's Energy and Climate Unit and Oceans and Coastal Unit provide information and technical assistance on climate change impacts and adaptation, resilience and preparedness to climate disruptions

  11. Stratospheric Ozone and Temperature Changes in the Past: The Impact of Increased Concentrations of CFCs in Simulations with a Chemistry-Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meul, S.; Oberländer, S.; Abalichin, J.; Kubin, A.; Langematz, U.

    2012-04-01

    Changes in stratospheric ozone between 1960 and the end of the 20th century are investigated analysing simulations with the Chemistry-Climate-Model (CCM) EMAC in FUB configuration (i.e. 39 layers with FUBRad parameterisation). In order to analyse the impact of increasing emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) from 1960 to 2000 two sensitivity studies have been performed: a reference simulation with boundary conditions for the year 2000 and one analogue simulation but with CFC emissions reduced to 1960 levels. By comparing to a transient simulation (1960 to 2100) using the CCMVal SCN-B2d scenario it is possible to isolate the ozone changes that are caused by the CFC-increase only and separate the CFC-effect from other processes affecting ozone, e.g. climate change. By applying the method of Garny et al. (2011) the relative ozone changes arising from the CFC-modification can be attributed to changes in transport, chemical production and loss. Furthermore, it is analysed how the processes related to the CFC-increase contribute to the stratospheric cooling of up to 4K that is simulated by the SCN-B2d run between the 1960s and the 2000s in the upper stratosphere. The temperature change due to increased CFCs is caused by a reduced absorption of solar radiation by decreased ozone concentrations combined with the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect of the CFCs. In the upper stratosphere a cooling of up to 2.5K can be explained by the CFC-increase.

  12. Climate change (elevated CO{sub 2}, elevated temperature and moderate drought) triggers the antioxidant enzymes' response of grapevine cv. Tempranillo, avoiding oxidative damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salazar-Parra, C.; Aguirreolea, J.; Sanchez-Diaz, M.; Irigoyen, J.J.; Morales, F. (Departamento de Biologia Vegetal, Seccion Biologia Vegetal (Unidad Asociada al CSIC, EEAD, Zaragoza e ICVV, Logrono), Facultades de Ciencias y Farmacia, Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona (Spain))

    2012-07-01

    Photosynthetic carbon fixation (A{sub N}) and photosynthetic electron transport rate (ETR) are affected by different environmental stress factors, such as those associated with climate change. Under stress conditions, it can be generated an electron excess that cannot be consumed, which can react with O{sub 2}, producing reactive oxygen species. This work was aimed to evaluate the influence of climate change (elevated CO{sub 2}, elevated temperature and moderate drought) on the antioxidant status of grapevine (Vitis vinifera) cv. Tempranillo leaves, from veraison to ripeness. The lowest ratios between electrons generated (ETR) and consumed (A{sub N} + respiration + photorespiration) were observed in plants treated with elevated CO{sub 2} and elevated temperature. In partially irrigated plants under current ambient conditions, electrons not consumed seemed to be diverted to alternative ways. Oxidative damage to chlorophylls and carotenoids was not observed. However, these plants had increases in thiobarbituric acid reacting substances, an indication of lipid peroxidation. These increases matched well with an early rise of H{sub 2}O{sub 2} and antioxidant enzyme activities, superoxide dismutase (EC 1.15.1.1), ascorbate peroxidase (EC 1.11.1.11) and catalase (EC 1.11.1.6). Enzymatic activities were maintained high until ripeness. In conclusion, plants grown under current ambient conditions and moderate drought were less efficient to cope with oxidative damage than well-irrigated plants, and more interestingly, plants grown under moderate drought but treated with elevated CO{sub 2} and elevated temperature were not affected by oxidative damage, mainly because of higher rates of electrons consumed in photosynthetic carbon fixation. (Author)

  13. Approaching the Edge of Abrupt Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramadhin, C.; Yi, C.

    2015-12-01

    The phenomenon of Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) became evident as paleoclimate data analyses began revealing that Earth's climate has the ability to rapidly switch from one state to the next in just a few decades after thresholds are crossed. Previously paleo-climatologists thought these switches were gradual but now there is growing concern to identify thresholds and the dominant feedback mechanisms that propel systems toward thresholds. Current human civilization relies heavily on climate stability and ACC threatens immense disruption with potentially disastrous consequences for all ecosystems. Therefore, prediction of the climate system's approach to threshold values would prove vital for the resilience of civilization through development of appropriate adaptation strategies when that shift occurs. Numerous studies now establish that earth systems are experiencing dramatic changes both by system interactions and anthropogenic sources adding urgency for comprehensive knowledge of tipping point identification. Despite this, predictions are difficult due to the immensity of interactions among feedback mechanisms. In this paper, we attempt to narrow this broad spectrum of critical feedback mechanisms by reviewing several publications on role of feedbacks in initiating past climate transitions establishing the most critical ones and significance in current climate changes. Using a compilation of paleoclimate datasets we compared the rates of deglaciations with that of glacial inceptions, which are approximately 5-10 times slower. We hypothesize that the critical feedbacks are unique to each type of transition such that warmings are dominated by the ice-albedo feedback while coolings are a combination of temperature - CO2 and temperature-precipitation followed by the ice-albedo feedbacks. Additionally, we propose the existence of a commonality in the dominant trigger feedbacks for astronomical and millennial timescale abrupt climate shifts and as such future studies

  14. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  15. Recent developments related to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lashof, D.A. [comp.

    1995-12-31

    This presentation discusses 8 items that are related to climate change: 1. Berlin mandate calls for emission reduction protocol by 1997; 2. Global temperatures return to record levels in 1994; 3. Shift of timing of seasons detected; 4. Zooplankton declined 80% off the Southern California coast; 5. Disease outbreaks linked to extreme weather; 6. Huge iceberg formed from Antartic ice shelf; 7. Latest model results match temperature record; 8. Stratospheric water vapor increase due to warming.

  16. Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

    2012-12-01

    There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the

  17. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  18. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... resulting health effects. Extreme weather events due to climate change may cause people to experience geographic displacement, damage to their property, loss of loved ones, and chronic stress—all of which can negatively affect ... change may be associated with staple food shortages, malnutrition, ...

  19. Spatial changes of Extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Ebrahimpour, Meisam; Khalili, Ali

    2013-05-01

    In order to better understand the effect associated with global climate change on Iran's climate condition, it is important to quantify possible shifts in different climatic types in the future. To this end, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature, and precipitation from 181 synoptic meteorological stations (average 1970-2005) have been collected from the meteorological organization of Iran. In this paper, to study spatial changes of Iran's climatic zones affected by climate changes, Extended De Martonne's classification (originally formulated by De Martonne and extended by Khalili (1992)) was used. Climate change scenarios were simulated in two future climates (average conditions during the 2050s and the 2080s) under each of the SRES A1B and A2, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3, and CGCM3 climate models. Coarse outputs of GCMs were downscaled by delta method. We produced all maps for three time periods (one for the current and two for the future) according to Extended De Martonne's classification. Finally, for each climatic zone, changes between the current and the future were compared. As the main result, simulated changes indicate shifts to warmer and drier zones. For example, in the current, extra arid-cold ( A1.1m2) climate is covering the largest area of the country (21.4 %), whereas in both A1B and A2 scenarios in the 2050s and the 2080s, extra arid-moderate ( A1.1m3) and extra arid-warm ( A1.1m4) will be the climate and will occupy the largest area of the country, about 21 and 38 %, respectively. This analysis suggests that the global climate change will have a profound effect on the future distribution of severe aridity in Iran.

  20. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

    CERN Document Server

    Hansen, James; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-01-01

    "Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons relative to climatology, have become progressively "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3{\\sigma}) warmer than climatology. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface in the period of climatology, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  1. Public Perception of Climate Change and the New Climate Dice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

    2012-01-01

    "Climate dice", describing the chance of unusually warm or cool seasons, have become more and more "loaded" in the past 30 years, coincident with rapid global warming. The distribution of seasonal mean temperature anomalies has shifted toward higher temperatures and the range of anomalies has increased. An important change is the emergence of a category of summertime extremely hot outliers, more than three standard deviations (3 sigma) warmer than the climatology of the 1951-1980 base period. This hot extreme, which covered much less than 1% of Earth's surface during the base period, now typically covers about 10% of the land area. It follows that we can state, with a high degree of confidence, that extreme anomalies such as those in Texas and Oklahoma in 2011 and Moscow in 2010 were a consequence of global warming, because their likelihood in the absence of global warming was exceedingly small. We discuss practical implications of this substantial, growing, climate change.

  2. Climate change characteristics of Amur River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan-lan YU

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data (from 1953 to 1995 and monthly data (from 1950 to 2010 of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following: the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter; the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.

  3. Climate change characteristics of Amur River

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Lan-lan YU; Zi-qiang XIA; Jing-ku LI; Tao CAI

    2013-01-01

    Unusually severe weather is occurring more frequently due to global climate change. Heat waves, rainstorms, snowstorms, and droughts are becoming increasingly common all over the world, threatening human lives and property. Both temperature and precipitation are representative variables usually used to directly reflect and forecast the influences of climate change. In this study, daily data (from 1953 to 1995) and monthly data (from 1950 to 2010) of temperature and precipitation in five regions of the Amur River were examined. The significance of changes in temperature and precipitation was tested using the Mann-Kendall test method. The amplitudes were computed using the linear least-squares regression model, and the extreme temperature and precipitation were analyzed using hydrological statistical methods. The results show the following:the mean annual temperature increased significantly from 1950 to 2010 in the five regions, mainly due to the warming in spring and winter;the annual precipitation changed significantly from 1950 to 2010 only in the lower mainstream of the Amur River;the frequency of extremely low temperature events decreased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River;the frequency of high temperature events increased from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River; and the frequency of extreme precipitation events did not change significantly from 1953 to 1995 in the mainstream of the Amur River. This study provides a valuable theoretical basis for settling disputes between China and Russia on sustainable development and utilization of water resources of the Amur River.

  4. Fire and Climate Change in Boreal Forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flannigan, M. D.; Logan, K. A.; Stocks, S. J.; Wotton, B. M.; Amiro, B. D.

    2004-12-01

    Fire is the major stand-renewing agent for much of the circumboreal forest, and greatly influences the structure and function of boreal ecosystems from regeneration through mortality. Current estimates are that an average of 5-15 million hectares burn annually in boreal forests, almost exclusively in Siberia, Canada and Alaska. There is a growing global awareness of the importance and vulnerability of the boreal region to projected future climate change. Fire activity is strongly influenced by four factors - weather/climate, vegetation \\(fuels\\), natural ignition agents and humans. Climate and weather are strongly linked to fire activity which suggests that the fire regime will respond rapidly to changes in climate. Recent results suggest that area burned by fire is related to temperature and fuel moisture. The climate of the northern hemisphere has been warming due to an influx of radiatively active gases \\(carbon dioxide, methane etc.\\) as a result of human activities. This altered climate, modelled by General Circulation Models \\(GCMs\\), indicates a profound impact on fire activity in the circumboreal forest. Recent results using GCMs suggest that in many regions fire weather/fire danger conditions will be more severe, area burned will increase, people-caused and lightning-caused ignitions will increase, fire seasons will be longer and the intensity and severity of fires will increase. This increase in fire activity may lead to a positive feedback cycle with the increased release of greenhouse gases. Although a run away scenario is unlikely as changes in vegetation would limit the positive feedback cycle. Changes in fire activity as a result of climate change could have a greater and more immediate impact on vegetation distribution and abundance as compared to the direct impact of climate change.

  5. Dark-leaved willow (Salix myrsinifolia) is resistant to three-factor (elevated CO2, temperature and UV-B-radiation) climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paajanen, Ria; Julkunen-Tiitto, Riitta; Nybakken, Line; Petrelius, Mari; Tegelberg, Riitta; Pusenius, Jyrki; Rousi, Matti; Kellomäki, Seppo

    2011-04-01

    Elevated carbon dioxide (CO2 ), temperature (T) and ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation may affect plant growth and secondary chemistry in different directions, but the effect of the combination of the three factors has seldom been tested. Here, we grew four dark-leaved willow (Salix myrsinifolia) clones under combinations of ambient or elevated CO2, T and UV-B radiation in top-closed chambers for 7 wk. Elevated UV-B had no effects on growth or phenolic compounds, and there were no significant interactions between UV-B, CO2 and T. CO2 alone increased most growth parameters, but the magnitude of the effect varied among the clones. Total phenolics increased at elevated CO2 , whereas they decreased at elevated T. The responses varied between the clones. The results imply that dark-leaved willow are fairly resistant to the applied three-factor climate change, probably because of high constitutive defense. However, the interactions between clone and climate change factors implies that some clones are more susceptible than the species as a whole.

  6. Genetic plant improvement and climate changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Magno Antonio Patto Ramalho

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The consequences of climate change for the agribusiness in Brazil have been widely debated. The issue isdiscussed in this publication to show the expected problems, particularly those associated with increases in temperature andwater stress. It is emphasized that the genetic improvement of plants, based on the experience in the past, has much tocontribute to mitigate these problems. To invest in the breeding of new cultivars, selected under stress conditions, is certainlythe best possible strategy for agriculture to cope with changes caused by climate alterations.

  7. Climate Change, Conflict, and Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akresh, Richard

    2016-01-01

    We have good reason to predict that a warming climate will produce more conflict and violence. A growing contingent of researchers has been examining the relationship in recent years, and they've found that hotter temperatures and reduced rainfall are linked to increases in conflict at all scales, from interpersonal violence to war. Children are…

  8. Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.

    2008-12-01

    Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.

  9. Western water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-01-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent.

  10. Tracking of climatic niche boundaries under recent climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Sorte, Frank A; Jetz, Walter

    2012-07-01

    1. Global climate has changed significantly during the past 30 years and especially in northern temperate regions which have experienced poleward shifts in temperature regimes. While there is evidence that some species have responded by moving their distributions to higher latitudes, the efficiency of this response in tracking species' climatic niche boundaries over time has yet to be addressed. 2. Here, we provide a continental assessment of the temporal structure of species responses to recent spatial shifts in climatic conditions. We examined geographic associations with minimum winter temperature for 59 species of winter avifauna at 476 Christmas Bird Count circles in North America from 1975 to 2009 under three sampling schemes that account for spatial and temporal sampling effects. 3. Minimum winter temperature associated with species occurrences showed an overall increase with a weakening trend after 1998. Species displayed highly variable responses that, on average and across sampling schemes, contained a strong lag effect that weakened in strength over time. In general, the conservation of minimum winter temperature was relevant when all species were considered together but only after an initial lag period (c. 35 years) was overcome. The delayed niche tracking observed at the combined species level was likely supported by the post1998 lull in the warming trend. 4. There are limited geographic and ecological explanations for the observed variability, suggesting that the efficiency of species' responses under climate change is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and difficult to predict. This outcome is likely to be even more pronounced and time lags more persistent for less vagile taxa, particularly during the periods of consistent or accelerating warming. Current modelling efforts and conservation strategies need to better appreciate the variation, strength and duration of lag effects and their association with climatic variability. Conservation

  11. Revisiting the association between sea surface temperature and the epidemiology of fish poisoning in the South Pacific: reassessing the link between ciguatera and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llewellyn, Lyndon E

    2010-10-01

    The most detailed dataset of ciguatera intensity is that produced by the South Pacific Epidemiological and Health Information Service (SPEHIS) of the Secretariat of the Pacific Community. The SPEHIS fish poisoning database has been previously analysed yielding statistically significant correlations between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and ciguatera case numbers in several countries raising concerns this affliction will increase as oceans warm. Mapping of the SPEHIS records and other data hints at ciguatera not only being restricted to warm waters but that the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, a body of water that remains hot throughout much of the year, may inhibit ciguatera prevalence. A qualitative assessment of ciguatera intensity and sea surface temperature (SST) behaviour within the EEZ of selected South Pacific nations supported the notion that ciguatera intensity was highest when SST was between an upper and lower limit. Many more climate and SST indices beyond the SOI are now available, including some that measure the abovementioned phenomenon of oceanic warm pools. Statistically significant, positive and negative cross-correlations were obtained between time series of annual ciguatera case rates from the SPEHIS dataset and the Pacific Warm Pool Index and several ENSO related indices which had been lagged for up to 2 years before the ciguatera time series. This further supports the possibility that when considering the impact of climate change on ciguatera, one has to consider two thresholds, namely waters that remain warm enough for a long enough period can lead to ciguatera and that extended periods where the water remains too hot may depress ciguatera case rates. Such a model would complicate projections of the effects of climate change upon ciguatera beyond that of a simple relationship where increased SST may cause more ciguatera.

  12. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  13. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  14. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  15. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...... health, comfort and convenience. Conceived as pleasurable, easy to approach, and good for the body, low-carbon life comes to be seen as a series of hobby-like activities that residents can engage in as part of their quests for good and meaningful lives in old age. Campaigners engage engage in trans-historical...

  16. Climate change and game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Peter John

    2011-02-01

    This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely.

  17. How Should we Address Climate Change?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YE Duzheng; YAN Zhongwei; HUANG Gang

    2009-01-01

    @@ Global warming goes on The climate has always been changing. Here we refer to the changes concerning the current global warming,which is unprecedented both in terms of the rate at which the warming takes place and the extent to which human activities exert impacts on it. Observational analyses indicate that the global mean temperature increased by about 0.6℃/century over the last century;

  18. Impact of climate change on waterborne diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Enzo Funari; Maura Manganelli; Luciana Sinisi

    2012-01-01

    Change in climate and water cycle will challenge water availability but it will also increase the exposure to unsafe water. Floods, droughts, heavy storms, changes in rain pattern, increase of temperature and sea level, they all show an increasing trend worldwide and will affect biological, physical and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. This paper is intended, through reviewing the available literature, to highlight environmen...

  19. Mitigating Climate Change in the American Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, Patrick D.; Enquist, Carolyn A. F.; Garfin, Gregg

    2008-01-01

    New Mexico Climate Change Ecology and Adaptation Workshop; Albuquerque, New Mexico, 22 October 2007; Climate change has had greater impacts on the American Southwest than perhaps anywhere else in the contiguous United States. The future likely holds even more dramatic impacts for the region's ecosystems. Managers of deserts, forests, grasslands, rivers, and streams in this vast and scenic region are under pressure to respond to the unprecedented wildfires, forest dieback, and insect outbreaks that have resulted from years of record warm temperatures and drought. Already faced with urban encroachment and water shortages, managers need to better understand the regional implications of global climate change in order to take informed action to build the adaptive capacity of the landscapes that provide ecosystem services to our communities and habitat for a great diversity of species.

  20. Regional climate change and national responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

    2016-03-01

    Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

  1. GREEN ECONOMY AND CLIMATE CHANGE PREVENTION CYCLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreea CONSTANTINESCU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available While experts in economics place transition to green economy on two directions - reducing ecological footprint and increasing human welfare - climate change specialists warn that effects of global warming will have a much greater impact in the future. It is natural to join scientific contributions in these two areas because both perspectives recognize the ravages made by industrialization, which triggered a serie of abrupt climate changes. For example, the average temperature in Europe has increased about 1oC. Based on these evidences, this article will show the usefulness of introducing a concept of full cycle to prevent climate change in the new paradigm that seeks to solve problems related to the fundamentals of sustainable development through transition to green economy. Using this method, this approach intends to be a new theoretical contribution which can act as support to efficiency of new clean technologies.

  2. Climate change in Bangladesh: a spatio-temporal analysis and simulation of recent temperature and rainfall data using GIS and time series analysis model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md. Rejaur; Lateh, Habibah

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, temperature and rainfall data series were analysed from 34 meteorological stations distributed throughout Bangladesh over a 40-year period (1971 to 2010) in order to evaluate the magnitude of these changes statistically and spatially. Linear regression, coefficient of variation, inverse distance weighted interpolation techniques and geographical information systems were performed to analyse the trends, variability and spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series model was used to simulate the temperature and rainfall data. The results confirm a particularly strong and recent climate change in Bangladesh with a 0.20 °C per decade upward trend of mean temperature. The highest upward trend in minimum temperature (range of 0.80-2.4 °C) was observed in the northern, northwestern, northeastern, central and central southern parts while greatest warming in the maximum temperature (range of 1.20-2.48 °C) was found in the southern, southeastern and northeastern parts during 1971-2010. An upward trend of annual rainfall (+7.13 mm per year) and downward pre-monsoon (-0.75 mm per year) and post-monsoon rainfall (-0.55 mm per year) trends were observed during this period. Rainfall was erratic in pre-monsoon season and even more so during the post-monsoon season (variability of 44.84 and 85.25 % per year, respectively). The mean forecasted temperature exhibited an increase of 0.018 °C per year in 2011-2020, and if this trend continues, this would lead to approximately 1.0 °C warmer temperatures in Bangladesh by 2020, compared to that of 1971. A greater rise is projected for the mean minimum (0.20 °C) than the mean maximum (0.16 °C) temperature. Annual rainfall is projected to decline 153 mm from 2011 to 2020, and a drying condition will persist in the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country during the pre- and post-monsoonal seasons.

  3. Climate Change: A Regional Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Inter-American Development Bank (IDB); Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to contribute to the ongoing discussion on climate change in light of the available evidence on the possible channels of transmission of the economic impact of this phenomenon and the results of the latest session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 15), held in Copenhagen from 7 to 18 December 2009. This document has been prepared, at the request of the Government of Mexico, by the Economic Commiss...

  4. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.

  5. Climate Change Projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mearns, L. O.; Sain, Steve; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; McGinnis, Seth; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Arritt, R.; Gutowski, William; Takle, Eugene S.; Snyder, Mark A.; Jones, Richard; Nunes, A M B.; Tucker, S.; Herzmann, D.; McDaniel, Larry; Sloan, Lisa

    2013-10-01

    We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.

  6. Climate change in China and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luo Y.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Since the first assessment report (FAR of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4 was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  7. Flowering Date of Taxonomic Families Predicts Phenological Sensitivity to Temperature: Implications for Forecasting the Effects of Climate Change on Unstudied Taxa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mazer, Susan J.; Travers, Steven E.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Bolmgren, Kjell; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Salamin, Nicolas; Inouye, David W.

    2013-01-01

    Premise of the study: Numerous long-term studies in seasonal habitats have tracked interannual variation in fi rst fl owering date (FFD) in relation to climate, documenting the effect of warming on the FFD of many species. Despite these efforts, long-term phenological observations are still lacking for many species. If we could forecast responses based on taxonomic affi nity, however, then we could leverage existing data to predict the climate-related phenological shifts of many taxa not yet studied; Methods: We examined phenological time series of 1226 species occurrences (1031 unique species in 119 families) across seven sites in North America and England to determine whether family membership (or family mean FFD) predicts the sensitivity of FFD to standardized interannual changes in temperature and precipitation during seasonal periods before fl owering and whether families differ signifi cantly in the direction of their phenological shifts; Key results: Patterns observed among species within and across sites are mirrored among family means across sites; earlyfl owering families advance their FFD in response to warming more than late-fl owering families. By contrast, we found no consistent relationships among taxa between mean FFD and sensitivity to precipitation as measured here; Conclusions: Family membership can be used to identify taxa of high and low sensitivity to temperature within the seasonal, temperate zone plant communities analyzed here. The high sensitivity of early-fl owering families (and the absence of earlyfl owering families not sensitive to temperature) may refl ect plasticity in fl owering time, which may be adaptive in environments where early-season conditions are highly variable among years.

  8. Increasing water temperature and disease risks in aquatic systems: climate change increases the risk of some, but not all, diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karvonen, Anssi; Rintamäki, Päivi; Jokela, Jukka; Valtonen, E Tellervo

    2010-11-01

    Global warming may impose severe risks for aquatic animal health if increasing water temperature leads to an increase in the incidence of parasitic diseases. Essentially, this could take place through a temperature-driven effect on the epidemiology of the disease. For example, higher temperature may boost the rate of disease spread through positive effects on parasite fitness in a weakened host. Increased temperature may also lengthen the transmission season leading to higher total prevalence of infection and more widespread epidemics. However, to date, general understanding of these relationships is limited due to scarcity of long-term empirical data. Here, we present one of the first long-term multi-pathogen data sets on the occurrence of pathogenic bacterial and parasitic infections in relation to increasing temperatures in aquatic systems. We analyse a time-series of disease dynamics on two fish farms in northern Finland from 1986 to 2006. We first demonstrate that the annual mean water temperature increased significantly on both farms over the study period and that the increase was most pronounced in the late summer (July-September). Second, we show that the prevalence of infection (i.e. proportion of fish tanks infected each year) increased with temperature. Interestingly, this pattern was observed in some of the diseases (Ichthyophthirius multifiliis, Flavobacterium columnare), whereas in the other diseases, the pattern was the opposite (Ichthyobodo necator) or absent (Chilodonella spp.). These results demonstrate the effect of increasing water temperature on aquatic disease dynamics, but also emphasise the importance of the biology of each disease, as well as the role of local conditions, in determining the direction and magnitude of these effects.

  9. Global Climate Change and Children's Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-11-01

    Rising global temperatures are causing major physical, chemical, and ecological changes in the planet. There is wide consensus among scientific organizations and climatologists that these broad effects, known as "climate change," are the result of contemporary human activity. Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and security, and children are uniquely vulnerable to these threats. The effects of climate change on child health include: physical and psychological sequelae of weather disasters; increased heat stress; decreased air quality; altered disease patterns of some climate-sensitive infections; and food, water, and nutrient insecurity in vulnerable regions. The social foundations of children's mental and physical health are threatened by the specter of far-reaching effects of unchecked climate change, including community and global instability, mass migrations, and increased conflict. Given this knowledge, failure to take prompt, substantive action would be an act of injustice to all children. A paradigm shift in production and consumption of energy is both a necessity and an opportunity for major innovation, job creation, and significant, immediate associated health benefits. Pediatricians have a uniquely valuable role to play in the societal response to this global challenge.

  10. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-12-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  11. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-08-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  12. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...... illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make...... the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented...

  13. Plant community responses to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kongstad, J.

    2012-07-01

    Climate change is expected to affect terrestrial ecosystems across the globe with increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, higher temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. These environmental factors are drivers of many important ecosystem processes, and changes in ecosystem function are therefore expected in the future. The aim of this PhD-thesis was to examine the effects of climate change on aboveground plant growth, plant composition and plant phenology in Danish heathland ecosystems. Two sites were investigated in large-scale field experiments: 1) the CLIMAITE site, 'Brandbjerg' and 2) the INCREASE site at Mols. Field manipulations lasted years and included: Warming, summer drought and (CLIMAITE only) elevated CO{sub 2} concentrations. The treatments were applied individually and in all possible combinations. Further, at Brandbjerg, but outside the treatment plots, a study was performed on the effects nitrogen and phosphorus addition on phenology, chemistry and growth of the dominant grass Deschampsia flexuosa (Wavy Hairgrass). In general, the aboveground vegetation responded less than expected to changing climatic conditions; even though Calluna vulgaris (Heather) increased in biomass over the study period, the biomass was not affected by the manipulations, indicating that C. vulgaris, has a strong resistance to changes in climate. Also, the grass biomass (primarily D. flexuosa) was not affected and was relatively constant over the period. I argue that the resilience of D. flexuosa towards the climatic treatments came from the plants ability to let the tissue die back, and then quickly recover once conditions again became favourable. That gave the plant a high resilience to changes in climatic factors. Calluna vulgaris, on the other hand, showed a resistance to changes by constantly maintaining the growth during the whole season, probably because of its evergreen status. Together, the two different strategies made the heathland

  14. Climate change effects for phenological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilla Dede

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may shift dates of phenological phase of plants. We can even demonstrate changes in plant growth due to climate change by model simulations. Earth warming will accelerate appearance of the phenological phases earlier. However, not only temperature can affect on that, but some other meteorological factors as well.The theoretical implications of climate change is the main goal of the present work using strategic modeling and a 140 years long temperature data set. Analysis of the Geophyton Phenology Database of the ELTE Botanical Garden is also made for 24 meteorological factors’ effect on the first bud appearance, the beginning of flowering, and the end of flowering. The found regression models show the relationships between phenological phase’ dates and meteorological factors.Finally, the rising temperatures are variously influencing phenological dates of selected species involved a Theoretical ecosístem. The daily fluctuation of temperature and the frosty day number are strongly influence geophyton plants and their pheonological phase’ dates.

  15. The Pace of Perceivable Extreme Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, X.; Gan, T. Y.

    2015-12-01

    When will the signal of obvious changes in extreme climate emerge over climate variability (Time of Emergence, ToE) is a key question for planning and implementing measures to mitigate the potential impact of climate change to natural and human systems that are generally adapted to potential changes from current variability. We estimated ToEs for the magnitude, duration and frequency of global extreme climate represented by 24 extreme climate indices (16 for temperature and 8 for precipitation) with different thresholds of the signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio based on projections of CMIP5 global climate models under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 for the 21st century. The uncertainty of ToE is assessed by using 3 different methods to calculate S/N for each extreme index. Results show that ToEs of the projected extreme climate indices based on the RCP4.5 climate scenarios are generally projected to happen about 20 years later than that for the RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Under RCP8.5, the projected magnitude, duration and frequency of extreme temperature on Earth will all exceed 2 standard deviations by 2100, and the empirical 50th percentile of the global ToE for the frequency and magnitude of hot (cold) extreme are about 2040 and 2054 (2064 and 2054) for S/N > 2, respectively. The 50th percentile of global ToE for the intensity of extreme precipitation is about 2030 and 2058 for S/N >0.5 and S/N >1, respectively. We further evaluated the exposure of ecosystems and human societies to the pace of extreme climate change by determining the year of ToE for various extreme climate indices projected to occur over terrestrial biomes, marine realms and major urban areas with large populations. This was done by overlaying terrestrial, ecoregions and population maps with maps of ToE derived, to extract ToEs for these regions. Possible relationships between GDP per person and ToE are also investigated by relating the mean ToE for each country and its average value of GDP per person.

  16. Climate Change, Human Rights, and Social Justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Patz, Jonathan A

    2015-01-01

    The environmental and health consequences of climate change, which disproportionately affect low-income countries and poor people in high-income countries, profoundly affect human rights and social justice. Environmental consequences include increased temperature, excess precipitation in some areas and droughts in others, extreme weather events, and increased sea level. These consequences adversely affect agricultural production, access to safe water, and worker productivity, and, by inundating land or making land uninhabitable and uncultivatable, will force many people to become environmental refugees. Adverse health effects caused by climate change include heat-related disorders, vector-borne diseases, foodborne and waterborne diseases, respiratory and allergic disorders, malnutrition, collective violence, and mental health problems. These environmental and health consequences threaten civil and political rights and economic, social, and cultural rights, including rights to life, access to safe food and water, health, security, shelter, and culture. On a national or local level, those people who are most vulnerable to the adverse environmental and health consequences of climate change include poor people, members of minority groups, women, children, older people, people with chronic diseases and disabilities, those residing in areas with a high prevalence of climate-related diseases, and workers exposed to extreme heat or increased weather variability. On a global level, there is much inequity, with low-income countries, which produce the least greenhouse gases (GHGs), being more adversely affected by climate change than high-income countries, which produce substantially higher amounts of GHGs yet are less immediately affected. In addition, low-income countries have far less capability to adapt to climate change than high-income countries. Adaptation and mitigation measures to address climate change needed to protect human society must also be planned to protect

  17. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  18. Greenland temperature response to climate forcing during the last deglaciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buizert, Christo; Gkinis, Vasileios; Severinghaus, Jeffrey P; He, Feng; Lecavalier, Benoit S; Kindler, Philippe; Leuenberger, Markus; Carlson, Anders E; Vinther, Bo; Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; White, James W C; Liu, Zhengyu; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Brook, Edward J

    2014-09-01

    Greenland ice core water isotopic composition (δ(18)O) provides detailed evidence for abrupt climate changes but is by itself insufficient for quantitative reconstruction of past temperatures and their spatial patterns. We investigate Greenland temperature evolution during the last deglaciation using independent reconstructions from three ice cores and simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. Contrary to the traditional δ(18)O interpretation, the Younger Dryas period was 4.5° ± 2°C warmer than the Oldest Dryas, due to increased carbon dioxide forcing and summer insolation. The magnitude of abrupt temperature changes is larger in central Greenland (9° to 14°C) than in the northwest (5° to 9°C), fingerprinting a North Atlantic origin. Simulated changes in temperature seasonality closely track changes in the Atlantic overturning strength and support the hypothesis that abrupt climate change is mostly a winter phenomenon.

  19. Impact on human health of climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franchini, Massimo; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate is rapidly changing. These changes, which are mainly driven by the dramatic increase of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic activities, have the potential to affect human health in several ways. These include a global rise in average temperature, an increased frequency of heat waves, of weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones and drought periods, plus an altered distribution of allergens and vector-borne infectious diseases. The cardiopulmonary system and the gastrointestinal tract are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of global warming. Moreover, some infectious diseases and their animal vectors are influenced by climate changes, resulting in higher risk of typhus, cholera, malaria, dengue and West Nile virus infection. On the other hand, at mid latitudes warming may reduce the rate of diseases related to cold temperatures (such as pneumonia, bronchitis and arthritis), but these benefits are unlikely to rebalance the risks associated to warming.

  20. Insect overwintering in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bale, J S; Hayward, S A L

    2010-03-15

    Insects are highly successful animals inhabiting marine, freshwater and terrestrial habitats from the equator to the poles. As a group, insects have limited ability to regulate their body temperature and have thus required a range of strategies to support life in thermally stressful environments, including behavioural avoidance through migration and seasonal changes in cold tolerance. With respect to overwintering strategies, insects have traditionally been divided into two main groups: freeze tolerant and freeze avoiding, although this simple classification is underpinned by a complex of interacting processes, i.e. synthesis of ice nucleating agents, cryoprotectants, antifreeze proteins and changes in membrane lipid composition. Also, in temperate and colder climates, the overwintering ability of many species is closely linked to the diapause state, which often increases cold tolerance ahead of temperature-induced seasonal acclimatisation. Importantly, even though most species can invoke one or both of these responses, the majority of insects die from the effects of cold rather than freezing. Most studies on the effects of a changing climate on insects have focused on processes that occur predominantly in summer (development, reproduction) and on changes in distributions rather than winter survival per se. For species that routinely experience cold stress, a general hypothesis would be that predicted temperature increases of 1 degree C to 5 degrees C over the next 50-100 years would increase winter survival in some climatic zones. However, this is unlikely to be a universal effect. Negative impacts may occur if climate warming leads to a reduction or loss of winter snow cover in polar and sub-polar areas, resulting in exposure to more severe air temperatures, increasing frequency of freeze-thaw cycles and risks of ice encasement. Likewise, whilst the dominant diapause-inducing cue (photoperiod) will be unaffected by global climate change, higher temperatures may

  1. Modelling of diurnal cycle under climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eliseev, A.V.; Bezmenov, K.V.; Demchenko, P.F.; Mokhov, I.I.; Petoukhov, V.K. [Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow (Russian Federation). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    1995-12-31

    The observed diurnal temperature range (DTR) displays remarkable change during last 30 years. Land air DTR generally decreases under global climate warming due to more significant night minimum temperature increase in comparison with day maximum temperature increase. Atmosphere hydrological cycle characteristics change under global warming and possible background aerosol atmosphere content change may cause essential errors in the estimation of DTR tendencies of change under global warming. The result of this study is the investigation of cloudiness effect on the DTR and blackbody radiative emissivity diurnal range. It is shown that in some cases (particularly in cold seasons) it results in opposite change in DTR and BD at doubled CO{sub 2} atmosphere content. The influence of background aerosol is the same as the cloudiness one

  2. An objective tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature gradient index for studies of south Amazon dry-season climate variability and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Peter; Lowe, Jason A; Collins, Mat; Moufouma-Okia, Wilfran

    2008-05-27

    Future changes in meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradients in the tropical Atlantic could influence Amazon dry-season precipitation by shifting the patterns of moisture convergence and vertical motion. Unlike for the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, there are no standard indices for quantifying this gradient. Here we describe a method for identifying the SST gradient that is most closely associated with June-August precipitation over the south Amazon. We use an ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) integrations forced by observed SST from 1949 to 2005. A large number of tropical Atlantic SST gradient indices are generated randomly and temporal correlations are examined between these indices and June-August precipitation averaged over the Amazon Basin south of the equator. The indices correlating most strongly with June-August southern Amazon precipitation form a cluster of near-meridional orientation centred near the equator. The location of the southern component of the gradient is particularly well defined in a region off the Brazilian tropical coast, consistent with known physical mechanisms. The chosen index appears to capture much of the Atlantic SST influence on simulated southern Amazon dry-season precipitation, and is significantly correlated with observed southern Amazon precipitation. We examine the index in 36 different coupled atmosphere-ocean model projections of climate change under a simple compound 1% increase in CO2. Within the large spread of responses, we find a relationship between the projected trend in the index and the Amazon dry-season precipitation trends. Furthermore, the magnitude of the trend relationship is consistent with the inter-annual variability relationship found in the AGCM simulations. This suggests that the index would be of use in quantifying uncertainties in climate change in the region.

  3. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  4. Hydrological response to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Dan; Werners, S.E.; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing

    2015-01-01

    Study region: The Pearl River, located in the south of China, is the second largest river in China in terms of streamflow. Study focus: The study aims to assess the impact of climate change on seasonal discharge and extreme flows. For the assessment we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)

  5. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  6. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  7. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  8. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  9. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  10. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  11. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy of…

  12. Spatial and temporal Teleconnections of Sea Surface Temperature and Ocean Indices to regional Climate Variations across Thailand - a Pathway to understanding the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bejranonda, Werapol; Koch, Manfred

    2010-05-01

    Thailand has a long coastline with the Pacific Ocean, as part of the Gulf of Thailand, as well as with the Indian Ocean, as part of the Andaman Sea. Because of this peculiar location, Thailand's local climate and, in particular, its water resources are strongly influenced by the mix of tropical wet, tropical dry and tropical monsoon seasons. Because of the large seasonal and interannual variations and irregularities of these, mainly ocean-driven weather patterns, particularly in recent times, large-scale water storage in huge river-fed reservoirs has a long tradition in Thailand, providing water for urban, industrial and agricultural use during long dry seasonal periods. These reservoirs which are located all over Thailand gather water primarily from monsoon-driven rainfall during the wet season which, usually, lasts from May to October. During the dry season, November to April, when the monsoon winds move northward, the air masses are drier in central and northern Thailand, with rain falling here only a few days in a month. Southern Thailand, on the other hand, which is constituted mostly by the isthmus between the two oceans, stays even hot and humid during that time period. Because of this tropical climate pattern, the surface water resources in most of Thailand strongly hinge on the monsoon movements which, in turn, depend themselves upon the thermal states of the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Therefore, the understanding of the recent strong seasonal and interannual climate variations with their detrimental effects on the availability of hydrological water resources in most parts of Thailand, must include the analysis of changes of various sea-state indices in the adjacent oceans and of their possible teleconnections with regional climate indices across this country. With the modern coupled atmospheric-ocean models being able to predict the variations of many ocean indices over a period of several months, namely, those driven by El Nino- Southern Oscillations

  13. Climate change and trace gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

    2007-07-15

    Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

  14. Prediction technologies for assessment of climate change impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Temperatures, precipitation, and weather patterns are changing, in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With these relatively rapid changes, existing soil erosion prediction technologies that rely upon climate stationarity are potentially becoming less reliable. This is especiall...

  15. Probabilistic projections of transient climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Glen R.; Sexton, David M. H.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Collins, Mat; Murphy, James M.

    2013-06-01

    This paper describes a Bayesian methodology for prediction of multivariate probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change. The approach is based upon PDFs for the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide, derived from a comprehensive sampling of uncertainties in modelling of surface and atmospheric processes, and constrained by multiannual mean observations of recent climate. These PDFs are sampled and scaled by global mean temperature predicted by a Simple Climate Model (SCM), in order to emulate corresponding transient responses. The sampled projections are then reweighted, based upon the likelihood that they correctly replicate observed historical changes in surface temperature, and combined to provide PDFs for 20 year averages of regional temperature and precipitation changes to the end of the twenty-first century, for the A1B emissions scenario. The PDFs also account for modelling uncertainties associated with aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake and the terrestrial carbon cycle, sampled using SCM configurations calibrated to the response of perturbed physics ensembles generated using the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and other international climate model simulations. Weighting the projections using observational metrics of recent mean climate is found to be as effective at constraining the future transient response as metrics based on historical trends. The spread in global temperature response due to modelling uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedbacks is determined to be about 65-80 % of the spread arising from uncertainties in modelling atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol processes of the climate system. Early twenty-first century aerosol forcing is found to be extremely unlikely to be less than -1.7 W m-2. Our technique provides a rigorous and formal method of combining several lines of evidence used in the previous IPCC expert assessment of the Transient Climate Response. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of our

  16. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  17. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  18. Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenbath, K. L.

    2011-12-01

    Scientists and educators strive to improve climate literacy throughout society, whether through communication of research findings or though classroom teaching. Despite these efforts, climate change misconceptions exist in students and the general public. When educators present evidence that contradicts misconceptions, students may begin to struggle with their inaccurate ideas and perhaps transition towards a scientifically-accepted understanding. These transitions, called conceptual change, can occur in college climate change courses. The purpose of this presentation is to describe college students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change and the way these ideas change throughout a climate change course. This presentation is based on five case studies of undergraduate students in a large lecture-hall course dedicated to climate change. Each case study student represents a different level of climate change understanding at the beginning of the semester. These case studies and subsequent cross-case analyses result from a qualitative research study using interviews, field notes, artifact analysis, coding and categorization, and research memos. The cases show shifts in all five students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change. During the first month of class, the three lower achieving students expressed uncertainty about the increase in average global temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. At the end of the semester, these students explained that warming from climate change is natural, yet the rate of this warming is increasing due to human activities. Two of the lower achieving students constructed definitions of climate change different than the definition used by the professor in the classroom. These students solidified the idea that the term "climate change" describes the change that results from natural forcings only, while the term "global warming" describes change in the climate that results from human-caused forcings. Their

  19. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  20. Precipitation extremes under climate change

    CERN Document Server

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to...

  1. Grapevine phenology and climate change in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cola, G.; Failla, O.; Maghradze, D.; Megrelidze, L.; Mariani, L.

    2016-10-01

    While the climate of Western Europe has been deeply affected by the abrupt climate change that took place in the late `1980s of the twentieth century, a similar signal is detected only few years later, in 1994, in Georgia. Grapevine phenology is deeply influenced by climate and this paper aimed to analyze how phenological timing changed before and after the climatic change of 1994. Availability of thermal resources in the two climatic phases for the five altitudinal belts in the 0-1250-m range was analyzed. A phenological dataset gathered in two experimental sites during the period 2012-2014, and a suitable thermal dataset was used to calibrate a phenological model based on the normal approach and able to describe BBCH phenological stages 61 (beginning of flowering), 71 (fruit set), and 81 (veraison). Calibration was performed for four relevant Georgian varieties (Mtsvane Kakhuri, Rkatsiteli, Ojaleshi, and Saperavi). The model validation was performed on an independent 3-year dataset gathered in Gorizia (Italy). Furthermore, in the case of variety Rkatsiteli, the model was applied to the 1974-2013 thermal time series in order to obtain phenological maps of the Georgian territory. Results show that after the climate change of 1994, Rkatsiteli showed an advance, more relevant at higher altitudes where the whole increase of thermal resource was effectively translated in phenological advance. For instance the average advance of veraison was 5.9 days for 250-500 m asl belt and 18.1 days for 750-1000 m asl). On the other hand, at lower altitudes, phenological advance was depleted by superoptimal temperatures. As a final result, some suggestions for the adaptation of viticultural practices to the current climatic phase are provided.

  2. Inventory of Research on the Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    2004-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest threats for the global environment today. Global mean temperature has risen by about 0.6 degrees C during the 20th century, greater than during any other century in the last 1000 years. Subsequently, climate change is likely to have detrimental effects on all global natural and anthropogenic systems. Climate change will have consequences for the structure and function of ecosystems and all the major global biomes. Also agricultural production and producti...

  3. Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.

    OpenAIRE

    Reid, PC; Fischer, AC; Lewis-Brown, E; Meredith, MP; Sparrow, M; Andersson, AJ; Antia, A.; Bates, NR; Bathmann, U.; Beaugrand, G.; Brix, H.; Dye, S.; Edwards, M.; Furevik, T.; R. Gangstø

    2009-01-01

    The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the wor...

  4. Climate Change and Variability in Ghana: Stocktaking

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felix A. Asante

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a holistic literature review of climate change and variability in Ghana by examining the impact and projections of climate change and variability in various sectors (agricultural, health and energy and its implication on ecology, land use, poverty and welfare. The findings suggest that there is a projected high temperature and low rainfall in the years 2020, 2050 and 2080, and desertification is estimated to be proceeding at a rate of 20,000 hectares per annum. Sea-surface temperatures will increase in Ghana’s waters and this will have drastic effects on fishery. There will be a reduction in the suitability of weather within the current cocoa-growing areas in Ghana by 2050 and an increase evapotranspiration of the cocoa trees. Furthermore, rice and rooted crops (especially cassava production are expected to be low. Hydropower generation is also at risk and there will be an increase in the incidence rate of measles, diarrheal cases, guinea worm infestation, malaria, cholera, cerebro-spinal meningitis and other water related diseases due to the current climate projections and variability. These negative impacts of climate change and variability worsens the plight of the poor, who are mostly women and children.

  5. Seasonality variations in the Central Mediterranean during climate change events in the Late Holocene

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goudeau, M-L. S.; Reichart, G.-J.; Wit, J.C.; de Nooijer, L.J.; Grauel, A.-L.; Bernasconi, S.M.; de Lange, G.J.

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) events, such as the Little Ice Age (LIA), are thought to have influenced average annual temperatures only marginally, but to have affected winter temperatures relatively strongly. With summer temperatures relatively unaffected, reconstructing climate chan

  6. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  7. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  8. Global Climate Change: National Security Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-05-01

    Probably long term, the single most important issue we face as a global community.” Cited in sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/ prometheus /archives/climate_ change...Surface Temperature Monitoring for Malaria Early Warning in Botswana,” American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, Vol. 73, No. 1, 2005, pp...1950,” Tropical Medicine and International Health, Vol. 7, No. 8, pp. 657-677, August 2002. 9. Price-Smith, Contagion and Chaos. 10. E. Worral et

  9. The Strategic Threat of Inevitable Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    global temperature by several degrees.3 In 1980, ice core samples drilled in the Greenland and Antarctic ice caps, which allowed scientists to measure...changes in ocean heat content along with melting and dynamic ice loss in the Antarctic and Greenland will continue for centuries.38 The climate, as...advocacy, recently withdrew from the Kyoto treaty as the rising price of oil made the tar sands of Alberta, which contain an estimated 240 gigatons of

  10. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  11. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  12. How Volcanism Controls Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P. L.

    2013-12-01

    km decrease in tropopause height. Changes in the rates and types of volcanism have been the primary cause of climate change throughout geologic time. Large explosive volcanoes erupting as frequently as once per decade increment the world into ice ages. Extensive, effusive basaltic volcanism warms the world out of ice ages. Twelve of the 13 dated basaltic table mountains in Iceland experienced their final eruptive phase during the last deglaciation when deposits of sulfate and volcanic ash fell over Greenland at their highest rates. Massive flood basalts are typically accompanied by extreme warming, ozone depletion, and major mass extinctions. The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum occurred when subaerial extrusion of basalts related to the opening of the Greenland-Norwegian Sea suddenly increased to rates greater than 3000 cubic km per km of rift per million years. Dansgaard-Oeschger sudden warming events are contemporaneous with increased volcanism especially in Iceland and last longer when that volcanism lasts longer. Sudden influxes of fresh water often observed in the North Atlantic during these events are most likely caused by extensive sub-glacial volcanism. The Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age, major droughts, and many sudden changes in human civilization began with substantial increases in volcanism. Extensive submarine volcanism does not affect climate directly but is linked with increases in ocean acidity and anoxic events.

  13. Climate Change Adaptation Actions in Tirana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JAMARBER MALLTEZI

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Tirana has recently experienced changing weather patterns such as rising temperatures and occurrence of extreme weather events. Such events – in combination with a rapid increase of urban areas and impermeable cement covering the natural soil in the city – have caused increased flooding, riverside erosion, delayed traffic, increased spending for cooling during the summer, increased need for health services, and an urgent need to plan the city smartly. Tirana is preparing a set of Climate Change Adaptation Actions in order to manage the posed risks and adapt to climate change. The city administration should integrate climate change adaptation in their management and planning processes. This exercise was prepared by using the Climate Compass tool and included the vulnerability assessment of different sectors in the city, evaluated the risks posed to vulnerable target groups and proposed feasible adaptation options. It outlines mostly actions to be taken to manage risks and build climate resilience across essential public infrastructure and services. Such actions would require better land use planning to maintain – and where possible increase – the natural areas and leave the natural soil undisturbed. Key to success is integrating adaptation concepts into the city planning and development investments. The result is a novel approach and guidance to better integrate adaptation concepts in city planning and new technologies to prevent heat waves, flood risks in the city, etc.Administrators of the Tirana Municipality should keep in mind and integrate the climate change adaptationactions into daily planning and decision making for several sectors including urban planning, transport, public services, water infrastructure, emergency response, etc. in order to ensure sustainable development for the city.

  14. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  15. Challenges and Possibilities in Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneau,, Diane; Khattabi, Abdellatif; Demers, Melanie

    2010-01-01

    Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people's difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that…

  16. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  17. Changes in Dimethyl Sulfide Oceanic Distribution due to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cameron-Smith, P; Elliott, S; Maltrud, M; Erickson, D; Wingenter, O

    2011-02-16

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is one of the major precursors for aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer over much of the remote ocean. Here they report on coupled climate simulations with a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemical model for DMS distribution and fluxes using present-day and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. They find changes in zonal averaged DMS flux to the atmosphere of over 150% in the Southern Ocean. This is due to concurrent sea ice changes and ocean ecosystem composition shifts caused by changes in temperature, mixing, nutrient, and light regimes. The largest changes occur in a region already sensitive to climate change, so any resultant local CLAW/Gaia feedback of DMS on clouds, and thus radiative forcing, will be particularly important. A comparison of these results to prior studies shows that increasing model complexity is associted with reduced DMS emissions at the equator and increased emissions at high latitudes.

  18. Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Katherine [National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)

    2016-03-31

    A report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine concludes it is now possible to estimate the influence of climate change on some types of extreme events. The science of extreme event attribution has advanced rapidly in recent years, giving new insight to the ways that human-caused climate change can influence the magnitude or frequency of some extreme weather events. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities. Confidence is strongest in attributing types of extreme events that are influenced by climate change through a well-understood physical mechanism, such as, the more frequent heat waves that are closely connected to human-caused global temperature increases, the report finds. Confidence is lower for other types of events, such as hurricanes, whose relationship to climate change is more complex and less understood at present. For any extreme event, the results of attribution studies hinge on how questions about the event's causes are posed, and on the data, modeling approaches, and statistical tools chosen for the analysis.

  19. NASA Nice Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

    2013-12-01

    Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate

  20. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R. [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  1. Climate Change: a Theoretical Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ishaq-ur Rahman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate Change has been undoubtedly the most illustrious environmental issue since late 20th century. But neither the discourse merely emerged during that time, nor it was problematized in the same way since its onset. History of Climate Change discourse reveals that from a purely scientific concern it has turned into a public agenda that is nowadays more inclined to be development problem. Transformations have brought about a complete new paradigm every time. This article presents a theoretical analysis of the Climate Change discourse and to do so it captured the underlying philosophy of the issue using Thomas Kuhn’s well-known thesis of ‘paradigm shift’. In particular it discusses about the crisis that lead the issue towards transformations; explores key perspectives around the crisis thus representation of the issue in the environmental discourse over the time. While this paper establishes that with the beginning of the 21st century, the discourse entered into a new paradigm and will reach to a critical point by the end of 2012, it finally postulates some measures that the discourse might integrate with the existing to advance beyond that point.

  2. Social justice, climate change, and dengue.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Aileen Y; Fuller, Douglas O; Carrasquillo, Olveen; Beier, John C

    2014-06-14

    Climate change should be viewed fundamentally as an issue of global justice. Understanding the complex interplay of climatic and socioeconomic trends is imperative to protect human health and lessen the burden of diseases such as dengue fever. Dengue fever is rapidly expanding globally. Temperature, rainfall, and frequency of natural disasters, as well as non-climatic trends involving population growth and migration, urbanization, and international trade and travel, are expected to increase the prevalence of mosquito breeding sites, mosquito survival, the speed of mosquito reproduction, the speed of viral incubation, the distribution of dengue virus and its vectors, human migration patterns towards urban areas, and displacement after natural disasters. The burden of dengue disproportionately affects the poor due to increased environmental risk and decreased health care. Mobilization of social institutions is needed to improve the structural inequalities of poverty that predispose the poor to increased dengue fever infection and worse outcomes. This paper reviews the link between dengue and climatic factors as a starting point to developing a comprehensive understanding of how climate change affects dengue risk and how institutions can address the issues of social justice and dengue outbreaks that increasingly affect vulnerable urban populations.

  3. Climatic change due to land surface alterations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, S.H.; Rao, V.B.

    1992-01-01

    A primitive equations global zonally averaged climate model is developed. The model includes biofeedback mechanisms. For the Northern Hemisphere the parameterization of biofeedback mechanisms is similar to that used by Gutman et al. For the Southern Hemisphere new parameterizations are derived. The model simulates reasonably well the mean annual zonally averaged climate and geobotanic zones. Deforestation, desertification, and irrigation experiments are performed. In the case of deforestation and desertification there is a reduction in the surface net radiation, evaporation, and precipitation and an increase in the surface temperature. In the case of irrigation experiment opposite changes occurred. In all the cases considered the changes in evapotranspiration overcome the effect of surface albedo modification. In all the experiments changes are smaller in the Southern Hemisphere.

  4. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  5. Obama states obligation to act on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    2012-11-01

    Obama states obligation to act on climate change Noting increased global temperatures, Arctic ice melt, and severe weather events, President Barack Obama said that climate change is real and called for a conversation across the country to determine what can be done about it.

  6. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  7. North American regional climate reconstruction from ground surface temperature histories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaume-Santero, Fernando; Pickler, Carolyne; Beltrami, Hugo; Mareschal, Jean-Claude

    2016-12-01

    Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, 510 North American borehole temperature-depth profiles were analyzed to infer recent climate changes. To facilitate comparisons and to study the same time period, the profiles were truncated at 300 m. Ground surface temperature histories for the last 500 years were obtained for a model describing temperature changes at the surface for several climate-differentiated regions in North America. The evaluation of the model is done by inversion of temperature perturbations using singular value decomposition and its solutions are assessed using a Monte Carlo approach. The results within 95 % confidence interval suggest a warming between 1.0 and 2.5 K during the last two centuries. A regional analysis, composed of mean temperature changes over the last 500 years and geographical maps of ground surface temperatures, show that all regions experienced warming, but this warming is not spatially uniform and is more marked in northern regions.

  8. Lungs in a warming world: climate change and respiratory health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernstein, Aaron S; Rice, Mary B

    2013-05-01

    Climate change is a health threat no less consequential than cigarette smoking. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gases, and especially CO₂, in the earth's atmosphere have already warmed the planet substantially, causing more severe and prolonged heat waves, temperature variability, air pollution, forest fires, droughts, and floods, all of which put respiratory health at risk. These changes in climate and air quality substantially increase respiratory morbidity and mortality for patients with common chronic lung diseases such as asthma and COPD and other serious lung diseases. Physicians have a vital role in addressing climate change, just as they did with tobacco, by communicating how climate change is a serious, but remediable, hazard to their patients.

  9. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  10. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can

  11. Cosmic rays and space weather: effects on global climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We consider possible effects of cosmic rays and some other space factors on the Earth's climate change. It is well known that the system of internal and external factors formatting the climate is very unstable; decreasing planetary temperature leads to an increase of snow surface, and decrease of the total solar energy input into the system decreases the planetary temperature even more, etc. From this it follows that even energetically small factors may have a big influence on climate change. In our opinion, the most important of these factors are cosmic rays and cosmic dust through their influence on clouds, and thus, on climate.

  12. The science of climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doctor, R. D.

    1999-09-10

    A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

  13. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  14. Attribution of glacier fluctuations to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oerlemans, J.

    2012-04-01

    Glacier retreat is a worlwide phenomenon, which started around the middle of the 19th century. During the period 1800-1850 the number of retreating and advancing glaciers was roughly equal (based on 42 records from different continents). During the period 1850-1900 about 92% of all mountain glaciers became shorter (based on 65 records). After this, the percentage of shrinking glaciers has been around 90% until the present time. The glacier signal is rather coherent over the globe, especially when surging and calving glaciers are not considered (for such glaciers the response to climate change is often masked by length changes related to internal dynamics). From theoretical studies as well as extensive meteorological work on glaciers, the processes that control the response of glaciers to climate change are now basically understood. It is useful to make a difference between geometric factors (e.g. slope, altitudinal range, hypsometry) and climatic setting (e.g. seasonal cycle, precipitation). The most sensitive glaciers appear to be flat glaciers in a maritime climate. Characterizing the dynamic properties of a glacier requires at least two quantities: the climate sensitivity, expressing how the equilibrium glacier state depends on the climatic conditions, and the response time, indicating how fast a glacier approaches a new equilibrium state after a stepwise change in the climatic forcing. These quantities can be estimated from relatively simple theory, showing that differences among glaciers are substantial. For larger glaciers, climate sensitivities (in terms of glacier length) vary from 1 to 8 km per 100 m change in the equilibrium-line altitude. Response times are mainly in the range of 20 to 200 years, with most values between 30 and 80 years. Changes in the equilibrium-line altitude or net mass balance of a glacier are mainly driven by fluctuations in air temperature, precipitation, and global radiation. Energy-balance modelling for many glaciers shows that

  15. Risk Communication, Moral Emotions and Climate Change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, Sabine

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt

  16. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  17. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

  18. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  19. Climatic change and river ice breakup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beltaos, S. [Environment Canada, National Water Research Institute, Burlington, ON (Canada); Burrell, B. C. [New Brunswick Dept. of the Environment and Local Government, Sciences and Planning Division, Fredericton, NB (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    An overview of climatic factors and impact relative to river ice engineering and science is presented. An explanation of the fundamentals of climatic change is followed by a review of direct and indirect climatic influences that govern river ice breakup and related trends. Known responses of river ice to climatic change and potential future changes to ice breakup processes are described along with the probable ecological and socio-economic consequences of these changes. Changes in engineering approaches to accommodate the present ice regime and predicted changes in climatic variables that affect river ice processes and reduce the vulnerability of infrastructure and ecosystems to climatic change are examined. Future research on the links between river ice and stream ecology is suggested to identify ecological concerns that may result from changes in river ice regimes induced by climatic change. 60 refs., 3 figs.

  20. Climate change science compendium 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMullen, C.P.; Jabbour, J.

    2009-09-15

    In a matter of a few weeks' time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC's landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel's next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peerreviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the confidence among researchers in their forecasts. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. The impact on the Earth's multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario-the one that most closely matches current trends-12-39 per cent of the planet's terrestrial surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10-48 per cent could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean

  1. Implications of spatial scale on climate change assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pingale Santosh

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available While assessing the effects of climate change at global or regional scales, local factors responsible for climate change are generalized, which results in the averaging of effects. However, climate change assessment is required at a micro-scale to determine the severity of climate change. To ascertain the impact of spatial scales on climate change assessments, trends and shifts in annual and seasonal (monsoon and non-monsoon, rainfall and temperature (minimum, average and maximum were determined at three different spatial resolutions in India (Ajmer city, Ajmer District and Rajasthan State. The Mann–Kendall (MK, MK test with pre-whitening of series (MK–PW, and Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK test, along with other statistical techniques were used for the trend analysis. The Pettitt–Mann–Whitney (PMW test was applied to detect the temporal shift in climatic parameters. The Sen’s slope and % change in rainfall and temperature were also estimated over the study period (35 years. The annual and seasonal average temperature indicates significant warming trends, when assessed at a fine spatial resolution (Ajmer city compared to a coarser spatial resolution (Ajmer District and Rajasthan State resolutions. Increasing trend was observed in minimum, mean and maximum temperature at all spatial scales; however, trends were more pronounced at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city. The PMW test indicates only the significant shift in non-monsoon season rainfall, which shows an increase in rainfall after 1995 in Ajmer city. The Kurtosis and coefficient of variation also revealed significant climate change, when assessed at a finer spatial resolution (Ajmer city compared to a coarser resolution. This shows the contribution of land use/land cover change and several other local anthropogenic activities on climate change. The results of this study can be useful for the identification of optimum climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies based on

  2. Tropical deforestation and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebeling, J.

    2006-08-15

    This dissertation evaluates recent proposals to include tropical deforestation into international climate change mitigation strategies. Deforestation is responsible for up to 25 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The research aim here is to evaluate implications of a range of policy options for the environmental effectiveness of a prospective agreement, as well as for its political and economic attractiveness for different countries and stakeholders. A literature review, 48 key stakeholder interviews, analyses of submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), modelling approaches and statistical analyses were carried out to answer these questions. On this basis the study identifies potential deal breakers and explores possible solutions to existing 'real' and perceived obstacles. Findings suggest that, given sufficient political will, an effective agreement between current UNFCCC Parties is feasible and that existing concerns can be addressed in pragmatic ways. Among the different policy alternatives, creating a new carbon trading mechanism under a post-2012 Kyoto regime is likely to deliver greatest economic and environmental benefits. Measuring emission reductions against national-level baselines based on historical base periods would increase the environmental integrity of resulting carbon credits. The study also finds that potential monetary benefits are distributed very unevenly between potential host countries, and that this may partly explain current negotiation positions. Complementary approaches, not based on emission trading, may have to be developed to foster broader support for an agreement. Finally, setting more ambitious emission reduction targets for industrialised countries would overcome concerns about 'flooding' of carbon markets, and would make the most of a unique opportunity to tackle both climate change and deforestation.

  3. The Evaluation of Climate Change Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin POPESCU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, it is acknowledged that climatic changes represent a serious threat for the environment and, so, this problem has been approached at numerous conferences, conventions and summits. The climate is strongly influenced by the changes in the atmospheric concentrations of certain gases that hold the solar radiations on the Earth’s surface (the greenhouse effect. The water vapors and the carbon dioxide (CO2 present in the atmosphere have always generated a natural greenhouse effect, without which the Earth surface would be 33o C lower than it is today. Other greenhouse gases are: methane (CH4, nitrogen protoxide (N2O, and the halogenated compounds such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs. During the last hundred years, man’s activity has led to the increase of the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases and of other pollutants, its consequence being the increase of the average global temperature. Although it has not been calculated exactly how much of this warming can be attributed to the greenhouse gases, there is evidence that human activity contributes to global warming. The main causes leading to the accentuation of the greenhouse effect are the burning of the fossil fuels, deforestations, cement production, waste disposal, refrigeration etc. The climatic changes triggered by the greenhouse gases will have consequences that have already made themselves visible, causing: the increase of the sea level and the possible flooding of the low areas; the melting of the icecap; the modification of the precipitations regime, with consequences like the increase of the floods and droughts frequency; changes in the occurrence of climatic extremes, especially in the occurrence of the high, extreme temperatures. All these will have a direct impact on ecosystems, health, some key economic sectors such as agriculture and on water resources.

  4. Variable temperature seat climate control system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karunasiri, Tissa R.; Gallup, David F.; Noles, David R.; Gregory, Christian T.

    1997-05-06

    A temperature climate control system comprises a variable temperature seat, at least one heat pump, at least one heat pump temperature sensor, and a controller. Each heat pump comprises a number of Peltier thermoelectric modules for temperature conditioning the air in a main heat exchanger and a main exchanger fan for passing the conditioned air from the main exchanger to the variable temperature seat. The Peltier modules and each main fan may be manually adjusted via a control switch or a control signal. Additionally, the temperature climate control system may comprise a number of additional temperature sensors to monitor the temperature of the ambient air surrounding the occupant as well as the temperature of the conditioned air directed to the occupant. The controller is configured to automatically regulate the operation of the Peltier modules and/or each main fan according to a temperature climate control logic designed both to maximize occupant comfort during normal operation, and minimize possible equipment damage, occupant discomfort, or occupant injury in the event of a heat pump malfunction.

  5. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H. [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  6. Renewable energy and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Quaschning, Volker

    2010-01-01

    This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

  7. Virgin's Knight tackles climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Michael

    2008-11-01

    "There is no greater or more immediate challenge than that posed by climate change," said Sir Richard Branson, chairman of the Virgin group, via video-link at the 59th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) held in Glasgow in the UK at the end of September. That grand statement may seem like a lot of hot air for the entrepreneur best known for his attempt to circumnavigate the globe by balloon. But Branson went on to reveal that Virgin Galactic, which aims to fly passengers 100 km into space for 200 000 per trip, will also provide room on its craft for a series of scientific experiments to study the Earth's atmosphere.

  8. A history of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastrup, Kirsten Blinkenberg

    2017-01-01

    they were first described and became known to outsiders, it is shown how flexibility and mobility were always preconditions for survival in this environment. Then, they were trapped in too much ice, while now they have to negotiate a rapidly melting environment. In both cases their response is deeply......This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene...

  9. Climate Change Attribution Using Empirical Decomposition of Climatic Data

    CERN Document Server

    Loehle, Craig; 10.2174/1874282301105010074

    2012-01-01

    The climate change attribution problem is addressed using empirical decomposition. Cycles in solar motion and activity of 60 and 20 years were used to develop an empirical model of Earth temperature variations. The model was fit to the Hadley global temperature data up to 1950 (time period before anthropogenic emissions became the dominant forcing mechanism), and then extrapolated from 1951 to 2009. After subtraction of the model, the residuals showed an approximate linear upward trend after 1942. Herein we assume that the residual upward warming observed during the second half of the 20th century has been mostly induced by a worldwide rapid increase of anthropogenic emissions, urbanization and land use change. The warming observed before 1942 is relatively small and it is assumed to have been mostly naturally induced by a climatic recovery since the Little Ice Age of the 17th century and the Dalton Minimum at the beginning of the 19th century. The resulting full natural plus anthropogenic model fits the enti...

  10. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Pandve, Harshal T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture – further endangering food security – to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate C...

  11. Climate Change and Corporate Environmental Responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Dewan Mahboob HOSSAIN; Chowdhury, M. Jahangir Alam

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, as an international environmental issue, is getting a lot of attention. The negative effects of climate change have become one of the most talked about issues among Governments, scientists, environmentalists and others. It is said that business activities are affecting the climate negatively. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the activities of the businesses should be controlled and encouraged to perform in a socially responsible manner. The article ...

  12. Global genetic change tracks global climate warming in Drosophila subobscura.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balanyá, Joan; Oller, Josep M; Huey, Raymond B; Gilchrist, George W; Serra, Luis

    2006-09-22

    Comparisons of recent with historical samples of chromosome inversion frequencies provide opportunities to determine whether genetic change is tracking climate change in natural populations. We determined the magnitude and direction of shifts over time (24 years between samples on average) in chromosome inversion frequencies and in ambient temperature for populations of the fly Drosophila subobscura on three continents. In 22 of 26 populations, climates warmed over the intervals, and genotypes characteristic of low latitudes (warm climates) increased in frequency in 21 of those 22 populations. Thus, genetic change in this fly is tracking climate warming and is doing so globally.

  13. Impact of climate change on waterborne diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enzo Funari

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Change in climate and water cycle will challenge water availability but it will also increase the exposure to unsafe water. Floods, droughts, heavy storms, changes in rain pattern, increase of temperature and sea level, they all show an increasing trend worldwide and will affect biological, physical and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. This paper is intended, through reviewing the available literature, to highlight environmental changes and critical situations caused by floods, drought and warmer temperature that will lead to an increase of exposure to water related pathogens, chemical hazards and cyanotoxins. The final aim is provide knowledge-based elements for more focused adaptation measures.

  14. Climate changes instead of global warming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radovanović Milan M.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Air temperature changes on Earth in recent years are the subject of numerous and increasingly interdisciplinary research. In contrast to, conditionally speaking, generally accepted views that these changes are conditioned primarily by anthropogenic activity, more results appear to suggest that it is dominant natural processes about. Whether because of the proven existence of areas in which downtrends are registered or the stagnation of air temperature, as opposed to areas where the increase is determined, in scientific papers, as well as the media, the increasingly present is the use of the term climate changes instead of the global warming. In this paper, we shall try to present arguments for the debate relating to the official view of the IPCC, as well as research indicating the opposite view.

  15. The challenges of communicating climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Feresin

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate change issue has become increasingly present in our society in the last decade and central also to communication studies. In the e-book “Communicating Climate Change: Discourses, Mediations and Perceptions”, edited by Anabela Carvalho, various scholars investigate how climate change challenges communication by looking at three main aspects: the discourses of a variety of social actors on climate change; the reconstruction of those discourses in the media; the citizens’ perceptions, understandings and attitudes in relation to climate change.

  16. The increased atmospheric greenhouse effect and regional climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Groenaas, S. [Bergen Univ. (Norway)

    1996-03-01

    This paper was read at the workshop ``The Norwegian Climate and Ozone Research Programme`` held on 11-12 March 1996. The main information for predicting future climate changes comes from integrating coupled climate models of the atmosphere, ocean and cryosphere. Regional climate change may be studied from the global integrations, however, resolution is coarse because of insufficient computer power. Attempts are being made to get more regional details out of the global integrations by ``downscaling`` the latter. This can be done in two ways. Firstly, limited area models with high resolution are applied, driven by the global results as boundary values. Secondly, statistical relationships have been found between observed meteorological parameters, like temperature and precipitation, and analyzed large scale gridded fields. The derived relations are then used on similar data from climate runs to give local interpretations. A review is given of literature on recent observations of climate variations and on predicted regional climate change. 18 refs., 4 figs.

  17. Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

  18. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O' Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  19. Climate change and wildlife health: direct and indirect effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofmeister, Erik; Rogall, Gail Moede; Wesenberg, Katherine; Abbott, Rachel; Work, Thierry; Schuler, Krysten; Sleeman, Jonathan; Winton, James

    2010-01-01

    Climate change will have significant effects on the health of wildlife, domestic animals, and humans, according to scientists. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects that unprecedented rates of climate change will result in increasing average global temperatures; rising sea levels; changing global precipitation patterns, including increasing amounts and variability; and increasing midcontinental summer drought (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Increasing temperatures, combined with changes in rainfall and humidity, may have significant impacts on wildlife, domestic animal, and human health and diseases. When combined with expanding human populations, these changes could increase demand on limited water resources, lead to more habitat destruction, and provide yet more opportunities for infectious diseases to cross from one species to another.

  20. Climate Change and Tropical Total Lightning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, R.; Petersen, W.; Buechler, D.; Goodman, S.; Blakeslee, R.; Christian, H.

    2009-01-01

    While global warming is regarded as a fact by many in the scientific community, its future impact remains a challenge to be determined and measured. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report (IPCC, 2007) shows inconclusive answers on global rainfall trends and general agreement on a future drier climate with increased global warming. The relationship between temperature, humidity and convection is not linear and is strongly dependent on regional scale features, such as topography and land cover. Furthermore, the relationship between convective lightning production (thunderstorms) and temperature is even more complicated, being subjected to the cloud dynamics and microphysics. Total lightning (intracloud and cloud-to-ground) monitoring is a relatively new field of observation. Global and tropical total lightning began to be more extensively measured by satellites in the mid 90s. In this scope, the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) onboard of the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) has been operational for over 11 years. Here we address total lightning trends observed by LIS from 1998 to 2008 in different temporal (annual and seasonal) and spatial (large and regional) scales. The observed 11-year trends are then associate to different predicted/hypothesized climate change scenarios.

  1. Climate change impacts on marine ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doney, Scott C; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Duffy, J Emmett; Barry, James P; Chan, Francis; English, Chad A; Galindo, Heather M; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M; Hollowed, Anne B; Knowlton, Nancy; Polovina, Jeffrey; Rabalais, Nancy N; Sydeman, William J; Talley, Lynne D

    2012-01-01

    In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

  2. Challenges and solutions for climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Gaast, Wytze

    2012-01-01

    The latest scientific knowledge on climate change indicates that higher greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through unchecked emissions will provoke severe climate change and ocean acidification threatening environmental structures on which humanity relies. Climate change therefore poses major socio-economic, technical and environmental challenges which will have serious impacts on countries’ pathways towards sustainable development. As a result, climate change and sustainable development have increasingly become interlinked. A changing climate makes achieving Millennium Development Goals more difficult and expensive, so there is every reason to achieve development goals with low greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to the following five challenges discussed by Challenges and Solutions for Climate Change: To place climate negotiations in the wider context of sustainability, equity and social change so that development benefits can be maximised at the same time as decreasing greenhouse gas emissi...

  3. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.

    2009-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...... on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing...

  4. How will climate change modify river flow regimes in Europe?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Schneider

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Worldwide, flow regimes are being modified by various anthropogenic impacts and climate change induces an additional risk. Rising temperatures, declining snow cover and changing precipitation patterns will interact differently at different locations. Consequently, in distinct climate zones, unequal consequences can be expected in matters of water stress, flood risk, water quality, and food security. In particular, river ecosystems and their vital ecosystem services will be compromised as their species richness and composition have evolved over long time under natural flow conditions. This study aims at evaluating the exclusive impacts of climate change on river flow regimes in Europe. Various flow characteristics are taken into consideration and diverse dynamics are identified for each distinct climate zone in Europe. In order to simulate present-day natural flow regimes and future flow regimes under climate change, the global hydrology model WaterGAP3 is applied. All calculations for current and future conditions (2050s are carried out on a 5' × 5' European grid. To address uncertainty, bias-corrected climate forcing data of three different global climate models are used to drive WaterGAP3. Finally, the hydrological alterations of different flow characteristics are quantified by the Indicators of Hydrological Alteration approach. Results of our analysis indicate that on the European scale, climate change can be expected to modify flow regimes remarkably. This is especially the case in the Mediterranean (due to drier conditions with reduced precipitation across the year and in the boreal climate zone (due to reduced snowmelt, increased precipitation, and strong temperature rises. In the temperate climate zone, impacts increase from oceanic to continental. Regarding single flow characteristics, strongest impacts on timing were found for the boreal climate zone. This applies for both high and low flows. Flow magnitudes, in turn, will be

  5. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  6. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  7. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  8. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.; Schaik, van H.; Valk, van der M.

    2009-01-01

    Today’s climate variability already has a large impact on water supply and protection. Millions of people are affected every year by droughts and floods. Future climate change is likely to make things worse. Many people within the water sector are aware that climate change is affecting water resourc

  9. Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cang, F Alice; Wilson, Ashley A; Wiens, John J

    2016-09-01

    Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources.

  10. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  11. Climate Change: Integrating Science and Economics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinn, R. G.

    2008-12-01

    The world is facing an ever-growing conflict between environment and development. Climate change is a century-scale threat requiring a century-long effort in science, technology and policy analysis, and institutions that can sustain this effort over generations. To inform policy development and implementation there is urgent need for better integration of the diverse components of the problem. Motivated by this challenge, we have developed the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at MIT. It comprises coupled sub- models of economic development, atmospheric chemistry, climate dynamics and ecosystems. The results of a recent uncertainty analysis involving hundreds of runs of the IGSM imply that, without mitigation policies, the global average surface temperature may rise much faster than previously estimated. Polar temperatures are projected to rise even faster than the average rate with obvious great risks for high latitude ecosystems and ice sheets at the high end of this range. Analysis of policies for climate mitigation, show that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes as opposed to lowering the medians. Faced with the above estimated impacts, the long lifetimes of most greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the long delay in ultimate warming due to ocean heat uptake, and the capital-intensive global energy infrastructure, the case is strong for concerted action now. Results of runs of the IGSM indicate the need for transformation of the global energy industry on a very large scale to mitigate climate change. Carbon sequestration, renewable energy sources, and nuclear present new economic, technological, and environmental challenges when implemented at the needed scales. Economic analyses using the IGSM indicate that global implementation of efficient policies could allow the needed transformations at bearable costs.

  12. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  13. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...... between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non...

  14. Carbon balance, partitioning and photosynthetic acclimation in fruit-bearing grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo) grown under simulated climate change (elevated CO2, elevated temperature and moderate drought) scenarios in temperature gradient greenhouses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salazar-Parra, Carolina; Aranjuelo, Iker; Pascual, Inmaculada; Erice, Gorka; Sanz-Sáez, Álvaro; Aguirreolea, Jone; Sánchez-Díaz, Manuel; Irigoyen, Juan José; Araus, José Luis; Morales, Fermín

    2015-02-01

    Although plant performance under elevated CO2 has been extensively studied in the past little is known about photosynthetic performance changing simultaneously CO2, water availability and temperature conditions. Moreover, despite of its relevancy in crop responsiveness to elevated CO2 conditions, plant level C balance is a topic that, comparatively, has received little attention. In order to test responsiveness of grapevine photosynthetic apparatus to predicted climate change conditions, grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. cv. Tempranillo) fruit-bearing cuttings were exposed to different CO2 (elevated, 700ppm vs. ambient, ca. 400ppm), temperature (ambient vs. elevated, ambient +4°C) and irrigation levels (partial vs. full irrigation). Carbon balance was followed monitoring net photosynthesis (AN, C gain), respiration (RD) and photorespiration (RL) (C losses). Modification of environment (13)C isotopic composition (δ(13)C) under elevated CO2 (from -10.30 to -24.93‰) enabled the further characterization of C partitioning into roots, cuttings, shoots, petioles, leaves, rachides and berries. Irrespective of irrigation level and temperature, exposure to elevated CO2 induced photosynthetic acclimation of plants. C/N imbalance reflected the inability of plants grown at 700ppm CO2 to develop strong C sinks. Partitioning of labeled C to storage organs (main stem and roots) did not avoid accumulation of labeled photoassimilates in leaves, affecting negatively Rubisco carboxylation activity. The study also revealed that, after 20 days of treatment, no oxidative damage to chlorophylls or carotenoids was observed, suggesting a protective role of CO2 either at current or elevated temperatures against the adverse effect of water stress.

  15. Pacific Islands Climate Change Virtual Library

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Virtual Library provides access to web based climate variability and climate change information and tools relevant to the Pacific Islands including case studies,...

  16. Climate Change, Health, and Populations of Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page contains communication materials that summarize key points from the U.S. Climate and Health Assessment for eight different populations that are disproportionately affected by climate change impacts.

  17. The human factor: climate change and climate communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)......Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)...

  18. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  19. Abrupt climate change: can society cope?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Mike

    2003-09-15

    Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being

  20. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  1. An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.

    2012-04-01

    Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific

  2. Brown, C.A., D. Sharp, and T. Mochon Collura. 2016. Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Attainment of Water Temperature Criteria in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA). Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 169:136-146.

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset contains the research described in the following publication: Brown, C.A., D. Sharp, and T. Mochon Collura. 2016. Effect of Climate Change on Water...

  3. Harbour porpoises respond to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heide-Jørgensen, Mads Peter; Iversen, Maria; Nielsen, Nynne Hjort; Lockyer, Christina; Stern, Harry; Ribergaard, Mads Hvid

    2011-12-01

    The effects of climate change on marine ecosystems and in particular on marine top predators are difficult to assess due to, among other things, spatial variability, and lack of clear delineation of marine habitats. The banks of West Greenland are located in a climate sensitive area and are likely to elicit pronounced responses to oceanographic changes in the North Atlantic. The recent increase in sea temperatures on the banks of West Greenland has had cascading effects on sea ice coverage, residency of top predators, and abundance of important prey species like Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Here, we report on the response of one of the top predators in West Greenland; the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena). The porpoises depend on locating high densities of prey species with high nutritive value and they have apparently responded to the general warming on the banks of West Greenland by longer residence times, increased consumption of Atlantic cod resulting in improved body condition in the form of larger fat deposits in blubber, compared to the situation during a cold period in the 1990s. This is one of the few examples of a measurable effect of climate change on a marine mammal population.

  4. Multi-factor climate change effects on insect herbivore performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scherber, Christoph; Gladbach, David J; Stevnbak, Karen;

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change on herbivorous insects can have far-reaching consequences for ecosystem processes. However, experiments investigating the combined effects of multiple climate change drivers on herbivorous insects are scarce. We independently manipulated three climate change drivers (CO...... the drought treatment, and there was a three-way interaction between time, CO2, and drought. Survival was lowest when drought, warming, and elevated CO2 were combined. Effects of climate change drivers depended on other co-acting factors and were mediated by changes in plant secondary compounds, nitrogen...... suturalis Thomson), an important herbivore on heather, to ambient versus elevated drought, temperature, and CO2 (plus all combinations) for 5 weeks. Larval weight and survival were highest under ambient conditions and decreased significantly with the number of climate change drivers. Weight was lowest under...

  5. Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

    2016-10-01

    Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

  6. Coastal tourism and climate change in Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henia, Latifa; Hlaoui, Zouhaier; Alouane, Tahar

    2014-05-01

    Tunisia is a major tourist destination on the southern shore of the Mediterranean. The tourism sector occupies an important place in the Tunisian economy with 816 hotels, 229,873 beds and a more than six million tourists at the end of the first decade of the 21th century, i.e. , more than half of the population. It offers a large number of direct and indirect jobs: One out of five people work in the tourism sector. The 1960s tourism boom was caused by a number of factors including long days of sunshine, 1,300 km of sandy coast, and a location close to Europe. Tunisian tourism is fundamentally based on two natural determinants: the sun and the sea. The coastline accounts for 95% of tourism investments and functional beds. The high season extends from April to October and it records 73% of nonresident tourists. This results in a homogenous growth of the "product" and its "consumers". This standardization is an important factor in the vulnerability of the Tunisian tourism to climate change. Global warming may affect the comfort level of the swimming season as well as its structure. An estimation of air and water temperature evolution near the Tunisian coasts was conducted under the CLIM-RUN project "Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean Region: Responding to User Needs" funded by the European Union's Seventh Framework Program (FP7). The University of Tunis research unit "GREVACHOT", project partner in charge of the case study of Tunisian tourism, has made the study of comfort indices of the present climate. This paper presents: - The climate comfort indices for seaside tourism in Tunisia, - The approach and results of the future evolution of air and water temperatures by the Tunisian coasts, - The future evolution of climate seaside comfort indices of Tunisia as well as the evolution of the swimming season in relation to global warming.

  7. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    complex field of study developed from a rather simple idea. Climate, as described by Harun Rashid and Bimal Paul, can be defined as...Harun Rashid and Bimal Paul, Climate Change in Bangladesh: Confronting Impending Disasters (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2014), 3–4. 43 “Climate...El Nino seasons, the warming trend has continued in a positive 44 Rashid and Paul, Climate Change

  8. Economic Consequences Of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szlávik, János; Füle, Miklós

    2009-07-01

    Even though the climate conflict resulting from green houses gases (GHG) emissions was evident by the Nineties and the well-known agreements made, their enforcement is more difficult than that of other environmental agreements. That is because measures to reduce GHG emissions interfere with the heart of the economy and the market: energy (in a broader sense than the energy sector as defined by statistics) and economical growth. Analyzing the environmental policy responses to climate change the conclusion is that GHG emission reduction can only be achieved through intensive environmental policy. While extensive environmental protection complements production horizontally, intensive environmental protection integrates into production and the environment vertically. The latter eliminates the source of the pollution, preventing damage. It utilizes the biochemical processes and self-purification of the natural environment as well as technical development which not only aims to produce state-of-the-art goods, but to make production more environmentally friendly, securing a desired environmental state. While in extensive environmental protection the intervention comes from the outside for creating environmental balance, in intensive environmental protection the system recreates this balance itself. Instead of dealing with the consequences and the polluter pays principle, the emphasis is on prevention. It is important to emphasize that climate strategy decisions have complex effects regarding the aspects of sustainability (economical, social, ecological). Therefore, all decisions are political. At present, and in the near future, market economy decisions have little to do with sustainability values under normal circumstances. Taking social and ecological interests into consideration can only be successful through strategic political aims.

  9. Climate change and nuclear power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, M

    2000-04-01

    The nuclear industry has increased its efforts to have nuclear power plants integrated into the post- Kyoto negotiating process of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Nuclear Energy Institute (NEI) states: ''For many reasons, current and future nuclear energy projects are a superior method of generating emission credits that must be considered as the US expands the use of market- based mechanisms designed around emission credit creation and trading to achieve environmental goals ''. The NEI considers that nuclear energy should be allowed to enter all stages of the Kyoto ''flexibility Mechanisms'': emissions trading, joint implementation and the Clean Development Mechanism. The industry sees the operation of nuclear reactors as emission ''avoidance actions'' and believes that increasing the generation of nuclear power above the 1990 baseline year either through extension and renewal of operating licenses or new nuclear plant should be accepted under the flexibility mechanisms in the same way as wind, solar and hydro power. For the time being, there is no clear definition of the framework conditions for operating the flexibility mechanisms. However, eligible mechanisms must contribute to the ultimate objective of the Climate Convention of preventing ''dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system''. The information presented in the following sections of this report underlines that nuclear power is not a sustainable source of energy, for many reasons. In conclusion, an efficient greenhouse gas abatement strategy will be based on energy efficiency and not on the use of nuclear power. (author)

  10. Nordic exchange of students and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomsson, A.

    2012-04-01

    Since the end of 2010 and until the summer of 2011 two upper secondary schools in Höyanger, Norway and Ronneby, Sweden had the possibility to take part in a project called Nordplus junior. The main aims of the program are: • To promote Nordic languages and culture and mutual Nordic-Baltic linguistic and cultural understanding. • To contribute to the development of quality and innovation in the educational systems for life-long learning in the participating countries by means of educational cooperation, development projects, exchanges and networking. • To support, develop, draw benefit from and spread innovative products and processes in education through systematic exchange of experiences and best practice. • To strengthen and develop Nordic educational cooperation and contribute to the establishment of a Nordic-Baltic educational area. The students did research on climate change and the impact on local and regional areas. Many questions had to be answered, giving an explanation to what happens if the climate changes. Questions related to Höyanger, Norway What happens to life in Norwegian fiords? Which attitudes do youngsters and adults have about climate change and what actions do they take? What does a rise in sea level mean for Höyanger? How are different tourist attractions affected in western Norway? Questions related to Ronneby, Sweden How is the regional fauna and flora affected? What will happen to agriculture and forestry? What do adults and youngsters know about consequences of a possible climate change? What happens to the people of Ronneby if the sea level rises? Are there any positive outcomes if the climate changes? Conclusions In Norwegian fiords there could be benefits because fish are growing faster in the winter because of an increased temperature. At the same time there could be an imbalance in the ecosystem because of a change in the living ranges of different species. Most of the young boys and girls in Höyanger, Norway were

  11. Responding to the Consequences of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hildebrand, Peter H.

    2011-01-01

    The talk addresses the scientific consensus concerning climate change, and outlines the many paths that are open to mitigate climate change and its effects on human activities. Diverse aspects of the changing water cycle on Earth are used to illustrate the reality climate change. These include melting snowpack, glaciers, and sea ice; changes in runoff; rising sea level; moving ecosystems, an more. Human forcing of climate change is then explained, including: greenhouse gasses, atmospheric aerosols, and changes in land use. Natural forcing effects are briefly discussed, including volcanoes and changes in the solar cycle. Returning to Earth's water cycle, the effects of climate-induced changes in water resources is presented. Examples include wildfires, floods and droughts, changes in the production and availability of food, and human social reactions to these effects. The lk then passes to a discussion of common human reactions to these forecasts of climate change effects, with a summary of recent research on the subject, plus several recent historical examples of large-scale changes in human behavior that affect the climate and ecosystems. Finally, in the face for needed action on climate, the many options for mitigation of climate change and adaptation to its effects are presented, with examples of the ability to take affordable, and profitable action at most all levels, from the local, through national.

  12. Permafrost Meta-Omics and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackelprang, Rachel; Saleska, Scott R.; Jacobsen, Carsten Suhr; Jansson, Janet K.; Taş, Neslihan

    2016-06-29

    Permafrost (i.e., soil that has been frozen for at least 2 consecutive years) represents a habitat for microbial life at subzero temperatures (Gilichinsky et al. 2008). Approximately one quarter of the Earth’s surface is underlain by permafrost, which contains 25-50% of the total global soil carbon pool (Schuur et al. 2008, Tarnocai et al. 2009). This carbon is largely protected from microbial decomposition by reduced microbial activity in frozen conditions, but climate change is threatening to induce large-scale permafrost thaw thus exposing it to degradation. The resulting emissions of greenhouse gasses (GHGs) can produce a positive feedback loop and significantly amplify the effects of global warming. Increasing temperatures at high latitudes, changes in precipitation patterns, and frequent fire events have already initiated a widespread degradation of permafrost (Schuur et al. 2015).

  13. Climate Change Effects Overwintering of Insects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vukasinovic, Dragana

    Climate change is modifying winter conditions rapidly and predicting species’ reactions to global warming has been the “the holy grail” of climate sciences, especially for managed systems, like agro-ecosystems. Intuitively, increased winter temperatures should release insects from coldinduced......) and could affect post-winter reproduction. In the case of D. radicum, mild winter caused earlier emergence of flies.Overall, this study showed that mild winters increased mortality of H. axyridis, but earlier onset of population growth may compensate for this, and in D. radicum mild winters decreased...... mortality and induced earli er emergence of flies. Thus, for some species, like H. axyridis, mild winters may not benefit nor conclusively stress the species, but for others like D. radicum, mild winters may benefit the population and be of concern to farmers.Agricultural insect fauna is a prime example...

  14. Climate Change Impacts on Worldwide Coffee Production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foreman, T.; Rising, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Coffee (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) plays a vital role in many countries' economies, providing necessary income to 25 million members of tropical countries, and supporting a $81 billion industry, making it one of the most valuable commodities in the world. At the same time, coffee is at the center of many issues of sustainability. It is vulnerable to climate change, with disease outbreaks becoming more common and suitable regions beginning to shift. We develop a statistical production model for coffee which incorporates temperature, precipitation, frost, and humidity effects using a new database of worldwide coffee production. We then use this model to project coffee yields and production into the future based on a variety of climate forecasts. This model can then be used together with a market model to forecast the locations of future coffee production as well as future prices, supply, and demand.

  15. The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tchebakova, N M; Parfenova, E [V N Sukachev Institute of Forest, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academgorodok, Krasnoyarsk, 660036 (Russian Federation); Soja, A J, E-mail: ncheby@forest.akadem.r, E-mail: Amber.J.Soja@nasa.go [National Institute of Aerospace (NIA), NASA Langley Research Center, Climate Sciences, 21 Langley Boulevard, Mail Stop 420, Hampton, VA 23681-2199 (United States)

    2009-10-15

    Observations and general circulation model projections suggest significant temperature increases in Siberia this century that are expected to have profound effects on Siberian vegetation. Potential vegetation change across Siberia was modeled, coupling our Siberian BioClimatic Model with several Hadley Centre climate change scenarios for 2020, 2050 and 2080, with explicit consideration of permafrost and fire activity. In the warmer and drier climate projected by these scenarios, Siberian forests are predicted to decrease and shift northwards and forest-steppe and steppe ecosystems are predicted to dominate over half of Siberia due to the dryer climate by 2080. Despite the large predicted increases in warming, permafrost is not predicted to thaw deep enough to sustain dark (Pinus sibirica, Abies sibirica, and Picea obovata) taiga. Over eastern Siberia, larch (Larix dahurica) taiga is predicted to continue to be the dominant zonobiome because of its ability to withstand continuous permafrost. The model also predicts new temperate broadleaf forest and forest-steppe habitats by 2080. Potential fire danger evaluated with the annual number of high fire danger days (Nesterov index is 4000-10 000) is predicted to increase by 2080, especially in southern Siberia and central Yakutia. In a warming climate, fuel load accumulated due to replacement of forest by steppe together with frequent fire weather promotes high risks of large fires in southern Siberia and central Yakutia, where wild fires would create habitats for grasslands because the drier climate would no longer be suitable for forests.

  16. A National Road Map to a Climate Literate Society: Advancing Climate Literacy by Coordinating Federal Climate Change Educational Programs (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niepold, F.; Karsten, J. L.

    2009-12-01

    Over the 21st century, climate scientists expect Earth's temperature to continue increasing, very likely more than it did during the 20th century. Two anticipated results are rising global sea level and increasing frequency and intensity of heat waves, droughts, and floods. [IPCC 2007, USGCRP 2009] These changes will affect almost every aspect of human society, including economic prosperity, human and environmental health, and national security. Climate change will bring economic and environmental challenges as well as opportunities, and citizens who have an understanding of climate science will be better prepared to respond to both. Society needs citizens who understand the climate system and know how to apply that knowledge in their careers and in their engagement as active members of their communities. Climate change will continue to be a significant element of public discourse. Understanding the essential principles of climate science will enable all people to assess news stories and contribute to their everyday conversations as informed citizens. Key to our nations response to climate change will be a Climate Literate society that understands their influence on climate and climate’s influence on them and society. In order to ensure the nation increases its literacy, the Climate Literacy: Essential Principles of Climate Science document has been endorsed by the 13 Federal agencies that make up the US Global Change Research Program (http://globalchange.gov/resources/educators/climate-literacy) and twenty-four other science and educational institutions. This session will explore the coordinated efforts by the federal agencies and partner organizations to ensure a climate literate society. "Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences: A Guide for Individuals and Communities" produced by the U.S. Global Change Research Program in March 2009

  17. Climatic change effects on agriculture. A future scenario; Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die Landwirtschaft. Ein Zukunftsszenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busch, Udo [Deutscher Wetterdienst, Offenbach (Germany). Abt. Agrarmeteorologie

    2014-07-01

    The contribution on the effect of the climatic change on agriculture covers the topics meteorology - agriculture, modeling of the climate, observation of projected changes - temperature, precipitation and extreme weather conditions; effects of the climatic change on selected agro-meteorological parameters in agriculture - surface temperature, shift of the growing period, corn and other energy plants for biogas production, droughts.

  18. Climate change - Agricultural land use - Food security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagy, János; Széles, Adrienn

    2015-04-01

    In Hungary, plougland decreased to 52% of its area by the time of political restructuring (1989) in comparison with the 1950s. Forested areas increased significantly (18%) and lands withdrawn from agricultural production doubled (11%). For today, these proportions further changed. Ploughlands reduced to 46% and forested areas further increased (21%) in 2013. The most significat changes were observed in the proportion of lands withdrawn from agricultural production which increased to 21%. Temperature in Hungary increased by 1°C during the las