WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change studies

  1. Climate change studies in Estonia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallaste, Tiit; Kuldna, Piret

    1998-01-01

    The present collection of papers was compiled on the basis of research papers written by Estonian scientists during the United Nations Environment Programme and Global Environment Facility initiated climate change programme Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations Assessments. The Estonian country case study was finally approved by UNEP/GEF in February 1996, practical work started in September. The priorities for Estonia in the study of global climate change impacts and adaptation have been in the following areas of interest: agriculture, water resources, forestry, the Baltic Sea and Estonian coast, also historical climate and socioeconomic background together with the biggest producer of greenhouse gases, the energy sector. Those areas have been studied more carefully during the one and half year period of the project

  2. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-03-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  3. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-01-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  4. Review on Climate Control Chamber studies in studying plant environment interaction under climate change scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Bhuvaneshwari, K.; Lakshmanan, A.

    2011-01-01

    This Technical brief summarizes some of the studies conducted on rice using a climate control chamber and outlines the studies that will be undertaken in the Climate Control Chamber facility that has been established at the Agro Climate Research Center at Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore. In recent years a numbers of technologies have been developed to study the impact of climate change on agricultural systems. Crop response to climate change could be studied by using a climate ...

  5. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  6. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/290472113

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  7. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; Maat, ter Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change

  8. Gulf Coast climate change adaptation pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-01

    Climate change-related issues place substantial operating and financial burdens on public transit agencies, particularly in coastal settings. Gulf of Mexico coastal transit agencies and their constituents are especially vulnerable to natural hazards ...

  9. Climate change mitigation studies in Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wickramaratne, Rupa

    1998-01-01

    In Sri Lanka, Climate Change Mitigation Studies have received low priority and have been limited to an ADB-sponsored preliminary study followed by an initial assessment of some mitigation options in the energy and agricultural sectors, with technical assistance from the US Country Studies Program. The major focus was on options of the mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. Owing to funding constraints, only the potential for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the various mitigation options were quantified; analysis of monetary costs and benefits or policy/programs for adoption of the options were not undertaken. For the non-energy sector, a very limited study on mitigation of methane emissions from rice fields was carried out. (au)

  10. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate is the average weather in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. ...

  11. Overview of the Kenya country studies on Climate Change Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gacuhi, R.A.

    1998-01-01

    The general objective of the Kenya country study on climate change was to make a contribution to the global efforts of finding a solution to climatic change problem.The specific objectives were, Contribute to the development of national capacity to handle climatic changes issues, Assess the country's contribution to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG's), Evaluate the vulnerability of various sensitive sectors to impacts of climate change, Generate information useful to the development of an overall national policy on climate change, Lay a foundation for development of national action plans and national communication required under the UNFCCC

  12. Climate change studies and the human sciences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holm, Poul; Winiwarter, Verena

    2017-09-01

    Policy makers have made repeated calls for integration of human and natural sciences in the field of climate change. Serious multidisciplinary attempts began already in the 1950s. Progress has certainly been made in understanding the role of humans in the planetary system. New perspectives have clarified policy advice, and three insights are singled out in the paper: the critique of historicism, the distinction between benign and wicked problems, and the cultural critique of the 'myths of nature'. Nevertheless, analysis of the IPCC Assessment Reports indicates that integration is skewed towards a particular dimension of human sciences (economics) and major insights from cultural theory and historical analysis have not made it into climate science. A number of relevant disciplines are almost absent in the composition of authorship. Nevertheless, selective assumptions and arguments are made about e.g. historical findings in key documents. In conclusion, we suggest to seek remedies for the lack of historical scholarship in the IPCC reports. More effort at science-policy exchange is needed, and an Integrated Platform to channel humanities and social science expertise for climate change research might be one promising way.

  13. Several Suggestions on the Climate Change and Its Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    According to the abundant studies,the relevant information and comprehensive analysis of the climate changes,several important problems on the climate changes and its studies were proposed.Based on the temporal distribution of the meteorological disaster of agriculture,the wave theory was expounded so as to draw people's attention on climate changes and to be objective,just and careful about the study.

  14. Beyond dichotomies: Gender and intersecting inequalities in climate change studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djoudi, Houria; Locatelli, Bruno; Vaast, Chloe; Asher, Kiran; Brockhaus, Maria; Basnett Sijapati, Bimbika

    2016-12-01

    Climate change and related adaptation strategies have gender-differentiated impacts. This paper reviews how gender is framed in 41 papers on climate change adaptation through an intersectionality lens. The main findings show that while intersectional analysis has demonstrated many advantages for a comprehensive study of gender, it has not yet entered the field of climate change and gender. In climate change studies, gender is mostly handled in a men-versus-women dichotomy and little or no attention has been paid to power and social and political relations. These gaps which are echoed in other domains of development and gender research depict a 'feminization of vulnerability' and reinforce a 'victimization' discourse within climate change studies. We argue that a critical intersectional assessment would contribute to unveil agency and emancipatory pathways in the adaptation process by providing a better understanding of how the differential impacts of climate change shape, and are shaped by, the complex power dynamics of existing social and political relations.

  15. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    In this paper, the authors discuss in brief the magnitude and rate of past changes in climate and examine the various factors influencing climate in order to place the potential warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in context. Feedback mechanisms that can amplify or lessen imposed climate changes are discussed next. The overall sensitivity of climate to changes in forcing is then considered, followed by a discussion of the time-dependent response of the Earth system. The focus is on global temperature as an indicator for the magnitude of climatic change

  16. Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Valizadeh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the major challenges facing humanity in the future and effect of climate change has been detrimental to agricultural industry. The aim of this study was to simulate the effects of climate change on the maturity period, leaf area index (LAI, biomass and grain yield of wheat under future climate change for the Sistan and Baluchestan region in Iran. For this purpose, two general circulation models HadCM3 and IPCM4 under three scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 in three time periods 2020, 2050 and 2080 were used. LARS-WG model was used for simulating climatic parameters for each period and CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate wheat growth. The results of model evaluation showed that LARS-WG had appropriate prediction for climatic parameters and simulation of stochastic growing season in future climate change conditions for the studied region. Wheat growing season period in all scenarios of climate change was reduced compared to the current situation. Possible reasons were the increase in temperature rate and the accelerated growth stages of wheat. This reduction in B1 scenario was less than A1B and A2 scenarios. Maximum wheat LAI in all scenarios, except scenario A1B in 2050, is decreased compared to the current situation. Yield and biological yield of wheat in both general circulation models under all scenarios and all times were reduced in comparison with current conditions and the lowest reduction was related to B1 scenario. In general, the results showed that wheat production in the future will be affected by climate change and will decrease in the studied region. To reduce these risks, the impact of climate change mitigation strategies and management systems for crop adaptation to climate change conditions should be considered.

  17. Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy

  18. MECCA coordinated research program: analysis of climate models uncertainties used for climatic changes study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caneill, J.Y.; Hakkarinen, C.

    1992-01-01

    An international consortium, called MECCA, (Model Evaluation Consortium for Climate Assessment) has been created in 1991 by different partners including electric utilities, government and academic groups to make available to the international scientific community, a super-computer facility for climate evolution studies. The first phase of the program consists to assess uncertainties of climate model simulations in the framework of global climate change studies. Fourteen scientific projects have been accepted on an international basis in this first phase. The second phase of the program will consist in the evaluation of a set of long climate simulations realized with coupled ocean/atmosphere models, in order to study the transient aspects of climate changes and the associated uncertainties. A particular attention will be devoted, on the consequences of these assessments on climate impact studies, and on the regional aspects of climate changes

  19. A CBO Study: The Economics of Climate Change: A Primer

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2003-01-01

    This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) study-prepared at the request of the Ranking Member of the House Committee on Science-presents an overview of issues related to climate change, focusing primarily on its economic aspects...

  20. Sustainable development and climate change: Lessons from country studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Shukla, P.; Garg, A.

    2008-01-01

    Sustainable development has been suggested as a framework for integrating development and climate change policies in developing countries. Mainstreaming climate change into sustainable development policies would allow these countries to achieve their development goals while addressing climate...... change. A number of research programmes have investigated how potential synergies could be achieved at national level and what kind of trade-offs between the various aspects of sustainable development have to be faced. An overview of these studies is provided, focusing on national case studies....... The energy and transportation sectors are covered in many studies, but some attention is also given to the infrastructure sector and water supply. Most existing development policies will not lead to a sustainable development pattern, since they insufficiently address climate change. However, good...

  1. Climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cronin, Thomas M.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

  2. Scientific Uncertainties in Climate Change Detection and Attribution Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santer, B. D.

    2017-12-01

    It has been claimed that the treatment and discussion of key uncertainties in climate science is "confined to hushed sidebar conversations at scientific conferences". This claim is demonstrably incorrect. Climate change detection and attribution studies routinely consider key uncertainties in observational climate data, as well as uncertainties in model-based estimates of natural variability and the "fingerprints" in response to different external forcings. The goal is to determine whether such uncertainties preclude robust identification of a human-caused climate change fingerprint. It is also routine to investigate the impact of applying different fingerprint identification strategies, and to assess how detection and attribution results are impacted by differences in the ability of current models to capture important aspects of present-day climate. The exploration of the uncertainties mentioned above will be illustrated using examples from detection and attribution studies with atmospheric temperature and moisture.

  3. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perthuis, Ch. de; Delbosc, A.

    2009-01-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  4. Representing climate change on public service television: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debrett, Mary

    2017-05-01

    Publicly funded broadcasters with a track record in science programming would appear ideally placed to represent climate change to the lay public. Free from the constraints of vested interests and the economic imperative, public service providers are better equipped to represent the scientific, social and economic aspects of climate change than commercial media, where ownership conglomeration, corporate lobbyists and online competition have driven increasingly tabloid coverage with an emphasis on controversy. This prime-time snapshot of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's main television channel explores how the structural/rhetorical conventions of three established public service genres - a science programme, a documentary and a live public affairs talk show - impact on the representation of anthropogenic climate change. The study findings note implications for public trust, and discuss possibilities for innovation in the interests of better public understanding of climate change.

  5. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth

  6. Climate Change Awareness among the High School Students: Case Study from a Climate Vulnerable Country

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M.A. Rahman

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Bangladesh is one the worst sufferers of climate change. Climate change awareness creation is pivotal to adaptation and mitigation strategies. Effective dissemination of knowledge among the citizens during high school years is crucial to that end. In Bangladesh, secondary school students follow common curricula which include entries on climate change. This paper investigates the role of the diverse demographic profiles and inherent scholastic background of students on their informedness. The research is based on responses from secondary schools students in Chittagong, Bangladesh. Based on their understanding of climate change, we have constructed the Climate Awareness Index (CAI. Then the relative roles of demographic determinants of the awareness have been compared using the CAI. The quality of schools, and grade, major and merit position of students have affected the CAI values. Besides, the study concluded that the religion, gender, parental education, occupation and income, etc. could affect students’ climate change informedness in Bangladesh.

  7. Climate change studies for Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Snelgrove, K.; Roberts, J.; Organ, M.

    2008-01-01

    Change is a constant for hydroelectric utilities. These organizations are continually faced with challenges involving future change. Traditionally, forecasting load has been essential but more and more there is evidence that climate change planning will be required to forecast supply issues as well. Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro (NLH) are initiating a study of climate change and its implications for operations and planning of hydroelectric and wind energy projects. In collaboration with Memorial University's Faculty of Engineering, NLH will begin this investigation by quantifying changes to volumes and timing of water inflows to their hydroelectric reservoirs and its impact on future operations. As the work continues, these studies may extend to climate induced load forecasting, the implications of icing and other climate extremes on infrastructure, and the integration of climate dependent alternate energy sources such as wind into the NLH system. NLH's group of companies is the 4th largest utility in Canada in terms of installed capacity at 7,289 MW. In addition to thermal generation, NLH operates 10 hydroelectric generating stations including the Churchill Falls facility at 5,428 MW, which boasts the second largest underground powerhouse in the world. Plans are currently underway to add a further 2,824 MW of installed capacity through the Lower Churchill Project as well as a mix of other conventional and alternate energy sources envisioned by the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador's Energy Plan. Many of these assets, especially hydro and wind energy generation are tightly coupled to the vagaries of the climate systems. Given these dependencies it is prudent to quantify the magnitude and uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. This presentation will summarize some of the very preliminary activities that have taken place to date, summarize literature that is available regarding climate projections for Newfoundland and Labrador and discuss

  8. Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colette, A.

    2007-07-01

    The UNESCO World Heritage Centre (WHC) initiated an assessment of the impacts of climate change on World Heritage in 2005, after the World Heritage Committee noted that 'the impacts of climate change are affecting many and are likely to affect many more World Heritage properties, both natural and cultural in the years to come'. A meeting of experts was convened in March 2006 bringing together over 50 representatives from the States Parties to the World Heritage Convention, various international organizations, non-governmental organizations, the Advisory Bodies to the World Heritage Committee, and academic and scientific experts, to discuss current and future impacts of climate change on World Heritage sites. The outcome of this initiative included a 'Report on Predicting and Managing the Effects of Climate Change on World Heritage', as well as a 'Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses' which were endorsed by the World Heritage Committee at its 30th session in July 2006, Vilnius, Lithuania. The outcome of this work has shown that it is timely to develop and implement appropriate management responses to protect World Heritage in the face of climate change. The solutions to global warming are the subject of continuing debate. Some of these measures, beyond the scope of the World Heritage Convention, are discussed under the auspices of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). But although climate change is a global challenge, there are many adaptation and preventive measures that can be taken at the local scale, i.e. at the level of the World Heritage sites. Studies are currently being conducted at several World Heritage sites to monitor climate change impacts and plan appropriate adaptation measures. But the World Heritage network is also a useful tool to share and promote lessons learnt and best practices, as well as to raise awareness regarding climate change impacts

  9. Methodological Issues on Climate Change Mitigation Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lene; Borges, Pedro Castro; Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses national greenhouse gas emission abatement costing studies as a case to discuss influential factors that determine their outcome and achievement. Costing studies are seen as part of an interconnected whole social process where actors (decision makers, clients, facilitators, expert...... such methodologies to case studies is seen as one way of improving the chances of understanding and handling environmental problems...

  10. Climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1977-02-15

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  11. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1977-01-01

    In spite of man's remarkable advances in technology, ultimately he is still dependent on the Earth's climatic system for food and fresh water. The recent occurrences in certain regions of the world of climatic extremes such as excessive rain or droughts and unseasonably high or low temperatures have led to speculation that a major climatic change is occurring on a global scale. Some point to the recent drop in temperatures in the northern hemisphere as an indication that the Earth is entering a new ice age. Others see a global warming trend that may be due to a build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. An authoritative report on the subject has been prepared by a World Meteorological Organization Panel of Experts on Climatic Change. Excerpts from the report are given. (author)

  12. Norwegian Hydrological Reference Dataset for Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnussen, Inger Helene; Killingland, Magnus; Spilde, Dag

    2012-07-01

    Based on the Norwegian hydrological measurement network, NVE has selected a Hydrological Reference Dataset for studies of hydrological change. The dataset meets international standards with high data quality. It is suitable for monitoring and studying the effects of climate change on the hydrosphere and cryosphere in Norway. The dataset includes streamflow, groundwater, snow, glacier mass balance and length change, lake ice and water temperature in rivers and lakes.(Author)

  13. Studying the human dimensions of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berk, R.A.

    1991-01-01

    With recent scientific interest in climate change has come a need to address substantive issues over very long periods of time and over virtually the entire globe. There is also a growing recognition not only of the links between physical and biological systems but also of the key roles played by human activities and institutions in interaction with the physical and biological world. Hence, the study of climate change presents a host of important questions to social scientists, for which they are not fully prepared. The problems inherent in studying the human dimensions of global climate change do not occur in a scientific vacuum. Rather, they are in part created by, and in part reflect, important gaps in scientific understanding of the physical and biological dimensions. To set the stage, therefore, the general nature of these gaps needs to be briefly reviewed

  14. ADAPTATION PROCESS TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN AGRICULTURE- AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Mustafa

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Climatic variations affect agriculture in a process with no known end means. Adaptations help to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change. Unfortunately, adaptation has never been considered as a process. Current study empirically identified the adaptation process and its different stages. Moreover, little is known about the farm level adaptation strategies and their determinants. The study in hand found farm level adaptation strategies and determinants of these strategies. The study identified three stages of adaptation i.e. perception, intention and adaptation. It was found that 71.4% farmers perceived about climate change, 58.5% intended to adapt while 40.2% actually adapted. The study further explored that farmers do adaptations through changing crop variety (56.3%, changing planting dates (44.6%, tree plantation (37.5%, increase/conserve irrigation (39.3% and crop diversification (49.2%. The adaptation strategies used by farmers were autonomous and mostly determined perception to climate change. It was also noted that the adaptation strategies move in a circular process and once they are adapted they remained adapted for a longer period of time. Some constraints slow the adaptation process so; we recommend farmers should be given price incentives to speed-up this process.

  15. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    This paper presented indicators of climate change for British Columbia (BC) with an emphasis on the coastal region. An overview of global effects of climate change was presented, as well as details of BC's current climate change action plan. Indicators examined in the paper for the BC coastal region included long-term trends in air temperature; long-term trends in precipitation; coastal ocean temperatures; sea levels on the BC coast; and the sensitivity of the BC coast to sea level rise and erosion. Data suggested that average air temperatures have become higher in many areas, and that Springtime temperatures have become warmer over the whole province. Winters have become drier in many areas of the province. Sea surface temperature has risen over the entire coast, with the North Coast and central Strait of Georgia showing the largest increases. Deep-water temperatures have also increased in 5 inlets on the South Coast. Results suggested that the direction and spatial pattern of the climate changes reported for British Columbia are consistent with broader trends in North America and the type of changes predicted by climate models for the region. Climate change will likely result in reduced snow-pack in southern BC. An earlier spring freshet on many snow-dominated river systems is anticipated as well as glacial retreat and disappearance. Warmer temperatures in some lakes and rivers are expected, as well as the increased frequency and severity of natural disturbances such as the pine mountain beetle. Large-scale shifts in ecosystems and the loss of certain ecosystems may also occur. BC's current climate plan includes cost effective actions that address GHG emissions and support efficient infrastructure and opportunities for innovation. Management programs for forest and agricultural lands have been initiated, as well as programs to reduce emissions from government operations. Research is also being conducted to understand the impacts of climate change on water

  16. GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL:A COMPREHENSIVE TOOL IN CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT STUDIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dharmaveer Singh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing concern, how and to what extent future changes in climate will affect human society and natural environments. Continuous emissions of Green House Gasses (GHGs at or above current rates will cause further warming. This, in turn, may modify global climate system during 21st century that very likely would have larger impacts than those observed during 20th century. At present, Global Climate Models (GCMs are only the most reliable tools available for studying behaviour of the climate system. This paper presents a comprehensive review of GCMs including their development and applications in climate change impacts studies. Following a discussion of the limitations of GCMs at regional and local scales, different approaches of downscaling are discussed in detail.

  17. Uncertainty and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Berliner, L. Mark

    2003-01-01

    Anthropogenic, or human-induced, climate change is a critical issue in science and in the affairs of humankind. Though the target of substantial research, the conclusions of climate change studies remain subject to numerous uncertainties. This article presents a very brief review of the basic arguments regarding anthropogenic climate change with particular emphasis on uncertainty.

  18. Interviewing German scientists on climate change. A preliminary study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ungar, S. [GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht GmbH (Germany). Inst. fuer Kuestenforschung; Toronto Univ., Scarborough (Canada)

    2004-07-01

    This study is based on in-depth interviews with 25 German scientists at the Coastal Research Institute of the GKSS-Forschungszentrum. It takes as its context the differential rhetoric and planning on climate change found in Germany and North America. The interviews try to throw light on the early German decision to address climate change, and to assess the current attitudes, beliefs and experiences of these German scientists. The results reveal a degree of complacency among these scientists, including a sense that Germany is not particularly threatened by climate change and has the capacity to adapt to it. The scientists are critical of inaction among the German population, but themselves uphold a ''light version'' of the precautionary principle. They have great difficulty translating the idea of climate change into popular metaphors that can be grasped by children. They strongly reject any link between German leadership on the issue as a result of a sense of guilt about the German past. (orig.)

  19. Mindfulness and Climate Change Action: A Feasibility Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maggie Grabow

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Pro-environmental behaviors and the cultural shifts that can accompany these may offer solutions to the consequences of a changing climate. Mindfulness has been proposed as a strategy to initiate these types of behaviors. In 2017, we pilot-tested Mindful Climate Action (MCA, an eight-week adult education program that delivers energy use, climate change, and sustainability content in combination with training in mindfulness meditation, among 16 individuals living in Madison, WI. We collected participant data at baseline and at different times across the study period regarding household energy use, transportation, diet, and health and happiness. This pilot study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of the various MCA study practices including measurement tools, outcome assessment, curriculum and related educational materials, and especially the mindfulness-based climate action trainings. MCA was well-received by participants as evidenced by high adherence rate, high measures of participant satisfaction, and high participant response rate for surveys. In addition, we successfully demonstrated feasibility of the MCA program, and have estimated participant’s individual carbon footprints related to diet, transportation, and household energy.

  20. Climate change and international tourism: a simulation study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamilton, J.M. [University of Hamburg (Germany). Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change; Maddison, D.J. [University of Southern Denmark, Odense (Denmark). Economics Institute; Centre for Cultural Economics and Management, London (United Kingdom); Tol, R.S.J. [University of Hamburg (Germany). Centre for Marine and Climate Research, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change; Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands). Institute for Environmental Studies; Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh (United States). Center for Integrated Study of the Human Dimensions of Global Change

    2005-10-01

    The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gasp. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for 207 countries. Using this basic model the impact on arrivals and departures through changes un population, per capita income and climate change are analysed. In the medium to long term, tourism will grow, however, the change from climate change is smaller than from population and income changes. (author)

  1. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruqiu, Y. [China National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China)

    1995-06-01

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs.

  2. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruqiu, Y.

    1995-01-01

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs

  3. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... the constraints on climate change planning at the local level are absent. To understand these constraints, this PhD thesis investigates the institutional dynamics that influence the process of the integration of climate change into planning practices at the local level in Denmark. The examination of integration...

  4. Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.

    2018-01-01

    Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936

  5. Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A

    2018-04-01

    Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.

  6. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... spaces. From Henri LeFebvre’s thinking we learn that the production of space is a feed back loop, where the space is constructed when we attach meaning to it, and when the space offers meaning to us. Spatial identity is thus not the same as identifying with space. Without indentifying with space, space...... doesn’t become place, and thus not experienced as a common good. Many Danish towns are situated by the sea; this has historically supported a strong spatial, functional and economically identity of the cities, with which people have identified. Effects of globalization processes and a rising sea level...

  7. Determining climate change management priorities: A case study from Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    LeDee, Olivia E.; Ribic, Christine

    2015-01-01

    A burgeoning dialogue exists regarding how to allocate resources to maximize the likelihood of long-term biodiversity conservation within the context of climate change. To make effective decisions in natural resource management, an iterative, collaborative, and learning-based decision process may be more successful than a strictly consultative approach. One important, early step in a decision process is to identify priority species or systems. Although this promotes the conservation of select species or systems, it may inadvertently alter the future of non-target species and systems. We describe a process to screen terrestrial wildlife for potential sensitivity to climate change and then use the results to engage natural resource professionals in a process of identifying priorities for monitoring, research, and adaptation strategy implementation. We demonstrate this approach using a case study from Wisconsin. In Wisconsin, experts identified 23 out of 353 species with sufficient empirical research and management understanding to inform targeted action. Habitat management and management of hydrological conditions were the common strategies for targeted action. Although there may be an interest in adaptation strategy implementation for many species and systems, experts considered existing information inadequate to inform targeted action. According to experts, 40% of the vertebrate species in Wisconsin will require near-term intervention for climate adaptation. These results will inform state-wide conservation planning as well as regional efforts.

  8. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    The indicators in this bulletin are part of a national set of environmental indicators designed to provide a profile of the state of Canada's environment and measure progress towards sustainable development. A review of potential impacts on Canada shows that such changes would have wide-ranging implications for its economic sectors, social well-being including human health, and ecological systems. This document looks at the natural state of greenhouse gases which help regulate the Earth's climate. Then it looks at human influence and what is being done about it. The document then examines some indicators: Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use; global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases; and global and Canadian temperature variations

  9. Groundwater and climate change in Africa : review of recharge studies

    OpenAIRE

    Bonsor, H.C.; MacDonald, A.M.

    2010-01-01

    The review of recharge studies was conducted as part of a one year DFID-funded research programme, aimed at improving understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and local livelihoods – see http://www.bgs.ac.uk/GWResilience/. The review is one of a series of components within the project. The overall outputs of the project are: Two hydrogeological case studies in West and East Africa – which assess the storage and availability of groundwater in different aquifers a...

  10. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  11. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  12. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vink, Martinus J.; Boezeman, Daan; Dewulf, Art; Termeer, Catrien J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  13. Climate Change In Indonesia (Case Study : Medan, Palembang, Semarang)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suryadi, Yadi; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Hadiyanto

    2018-02-01

    Indonesia's maritime continent is one of the most vulnerable regions regarding to climate change impacts. One of the vulnerable areas affected are the urban areas, because they are home to almost half of Indonesia's population where they live and earn a living, so that environmental management efforts need to be done. To support such efforts, climate change analysis is required. The analysis was carried out in several big cities in Indonesia. The method used in the research was trend analysis of temperature, rainfall, shifts in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic trend. The data of rainfall and temperature were obtained from Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The result shows that the air temperature and rainfall have a positive trend, except in Semarang City which having a negative rainfall trend. The result also shows heavy rainfall trends. These indicate that climate is changing in these three cities.

  14. Ensembles modeling approach to study Climate Change impacts on Wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Mukhtar; Claudio, Stöckle O.; Nelson, Roger; Higgins, Stewart

    2017-04-01

    Simulations of crop yield under climate variability are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainties is essential for effective use of projected results in adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this study we evaluated the uncertainties related to crop-climate models using five crop growth simulation models (CropSyst, APSIM, DSSAT, STICS and EPIC) and 14 general circulation models (GCMs) for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP) of atmospheric CO2 (4.5 and 8.5 W m-2) in the Pacific Northwest (PNW), USA. The aim was to assess how different process-based crop models could be used accurately for estimation of winter wheat growth, development and yield. Firstly, all models were calibrated for high rainfall, medium rainfall, low rainfall and irrigated sites in the PNW using 1979-2010 as the baseline period. Response variables were related to farm management and soil properties, and included crop phenology, leaf area index (LAI), biomass and grain yield of winter wheat. All five models were run from 2000 to 2100 using the 14 GCMs and 2 RCPs to evaluate the effect of future climate (rainfall, temperature and CO2) on winter wheat phenology, LAI, biomass, grain yield and harvest index. Simulated time to flowering and maturity was reduced in all models except EPIC with some level of uncertainty. All models generally predicted an increase in biomass and grain yield under elevated CO2 but this effect was more prominent under rainfed conditions than irrigation. However, there was uncertainty in the simulation of crop phenology, biomass and grain yield under 14 GCMs during three prediction periods (2030, 2050 and 2070). We concluded that to improve accuracy and consistency in simulating wheat growth dynamics and yield under a changing climate, a multimodel ensemble approach should be used.

  15. Climate change and international tourism: A simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamilton, J.M.; Maddison, D.J.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2005-01-01

    The literature on tourism and climate change lacks an analysis of the global changes in tourism demand. Here, a simulation model of international tourism is presented that fills that gap. The current pattern of international tourist flows is modelled using 1995 data on departures and arrivals for

  16. Effects of Simulated Forest Cover Change on Projected Climate Change – a Case Study of Hungary

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GÁLOS, Borbála

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Climatic effects of forest cover change have been investigated for Hungary applying theregional climate model REMO. For the end of the 21st century (2071–2100 case studies have beenanalyzed assuming maximal afforestation (forests covering all vegetated area and completedeforestation (forests replaced by grasslands of the country. For 2021–2025, the climatic influence ofthe potential afforestation based on a detailed national survey has been assessed. The simulationresults indicate that maximal afforestation may reduce the projected climate change through coolerand moister conditions for the entire summer period. The magnitude of the simulated climate changemitigating effect of the forest cover increase differs among regions. The smallest climatic benefit wascalculated in the southwestern region, in the area with the potentially strongest climate change. Thestrongest effects of maximal afforestation are expected in the northeastern part of the country. Here,half of the projected precipitation decrease could be relieved and the probability of summer droughtscould be reduced. The potential afforestation has a very slight feedback on the regional climatecompared to the maximal afforestation scenario.

  17. Long-term bird study records Arctic climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zielinski, Sarah

    Alaska's summer of 2005 was the second warmest on record there, with a record retreat of arctic pack ice. As Alaskan temperatures gradually increase, artic birds, such as the black guillemots of Cooper Island, near Barrow, Alaska, are experiencing drastic habitat changes. Though these small black and white birds—the subjects of a long-term study of climate change—fared better this year than they have in the recent past (due to local cool conditions), they are nonetheless struggling to adapt as their artic island summer home becomes subarctic.George Divokyan ornithologist at the Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, discovered the Cooper Island colony of guillemots in the early 1970s and has spent every summer since 1975 there studying these birds. He presented his latest research during a 3 November talk in Washington, D.C.

  18. Application of web-GIS approach for climate change study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okladnikov, Igor; Gordov, Evgeny; Titov, Alexander; Bogomolov, Vasily; Martynova, Yuliya; Shulgina, Tamara

    2013-04-01

    Georeferenced datasets are currently actively used in numerous applications including modeling, interpretation and forecast of climatic and ecosystem changes for various spatial and temporal scales. Due to inherent heterogeneity of environmental datasets as well as their huge size which might constitute up to tens terabytes for a single dataset at present studies in the area of climate and environmental change require a special software support. A dedicated web-GIS information-computational system for analysis of georeferenced climatological and meteorological data has been created. It is based on OGC standards and involves many modern solutions such as object-oriented programming model, modular composition, and JavaScript libraries based on GeoExt library, ExtJS Framework and OpenLayers software. The main advantage of the system lies in a possibility to perform mathematical and statistical data analysis, graphical visualization of results with GIS-functionality, and to prepare binary output files with just only a modern graphical web-browser installed on a common desktop computer connected to Internet. Several geophysical datasets represented by two editions of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, JMA/CRIEPI JRA-25 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis, ECMWF ERA Interim Reanalysis, MRI/JMA APHRODITE's Water Resources Project Reanalysis, DWD Global Precipitation Climatology Centre's data, GMAO Modern Era-Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, meteorological observational data for the territory of the former USSR for the 20th century, results of modeling by global and regional climatological models, and others are available for processing by the system. And this list is extending. Also a functionality to run WRF and "Planet simulator" models was implemented in the system. Due to many preset parameters and limited time and spatial ranges set in the system these models have low computational power requirements and could be used in educational workflow for better

  19. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ... ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY [FRL-9192-2; Docket ID No. EPA-HQ-ORD-2010-0701] Climate Change... period for the draft document titled, ``Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of... vulnerability to future climate change. The report is intended to illustrate the types of analyses, models, and...

  20. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newell, P.

    2000-01-01

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  1. Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Zongci; DING Yihui; LUO Yong; Wang Shaowu

    2005-01-01

    Attributions of floods/cooler along the Yangtze River Valley and droughts/warmer in North China for the last 25 years have been reviewed in this paper. Both natural climate variability and human activities are considered. Some stronger evidences contributed to the natural climate variability, such as decadal and interdecadal variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon, the periodicities and transitions of rainfall and temperature changes in China, abrupt climate change, NAO, AO, AAO, ENSO, and snow cover. The signals produced by the human activities such as greenhouse gases and "brown clouds" likely play the role for the patterns. But the physical feedbacks and mechanisms still keep ambiguous and vague. More researches should be carried out in future to solve this issue.

  2. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  3. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  4. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni L.; Jackson, Stephen T.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change.

  5. Climate change: wildfire impact

    OpenAIRE

    Dautbasic, Mirza; Crabtree, J.; Ioras, Florin; Abrudan, Ioan Vasile; Ratnasingam, Jega

    2011-01-01

    Every ecosystem is a complex organization of carefully mixed life forms; a dynamic and particularly sensible system. Consequently, their progressive decline may accelerate climate change and vice versa, influencing flora and fauna composition and distribution, resulting in the loss of biodiversity. Climate changes effects are the principal topics of this volume. Written by internationally renowned contributors, Biodiversity loss in a changing planet offers attractive study cases focused on bi...

  6. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  7. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toni Lyn Morelli; Christopher Daly; Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Deanna M. Dulen; Joseph L. Ebersole; Stephen T. Jackson; Jessica D. Lundquist; Connie Millar; Sean P. Maher; William B. Monahan; Koren R. Nydick; Kelly T. Redmond; Sarah C. Sawyer; Sarah Stock; Steven R. Beissinger

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that...

  8. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...

  9. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1990-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  10. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rind, D.

    1991-01-01

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  11. Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers: a Case Study at Bin County, Northeast China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yu, Q.; Wu, W.; Liu, Z.; Verburg, P.H.; Xia, T.; Yang, P.; Lu, Z.; You, L.; Tang, H.

    2014-01-01

    Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data (presents farmers' personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change)

  12. Chemistry and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernier, Jean-Claude; Brasseur, Guy; Brechet, Yves; Candel, Sebastien; Cazenave, Anny; Courtillot, Vincent; Fontecave, Marc; Garnier, Emmanuel; Goebel, Philippe; Legrand, Jack; Legrand, Michel; Le Treut, Herve; Mauberger, Pascal; Dinh-Audouin, Minh-Thu; Olivier, Daniele; Rigny, Paul; Bigot, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    In its first part, this collective publication addresses the decennial and centuries-old variations of climate: perspectives and implications of climate change for the 21. century, questions remaining about the understanding of climate change from its sources to its modelling, extreme climate variations and societies during the last millennium. The contributions of the second part outline how chemistry is a tool to study climate change: ice chemistry as an archive of our past environment, observations and predictions on sea level rise, relationship between atmosphere chemistry and climate. The third set of contributions discusses the transformation of the energy system for a cleaner atmosphere and the management of the climate risk: the chemical processing of CO_2, actions of chemical companies to support the struggle against climate change, relationship between barrel price and renewable energies, relationship between grid complexity and green energy. The last part outlines the role chemistry can have to be able to do without fossil fuels: chemistry in front of challenges of transformation of the energy system, the use of micro-algae, the use of hydrogen as a vector of energy transition

  13. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fatichi, S.; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-01-01

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  14. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  15. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    environment change, formation mechanism and prediction theory of major climate and weather disasters in China, technologies of efficient use of clean energy, energy conservation and improvement of energy efficiency, development and utilisation technology of renewable energy and new energy. The EU recognises that developing countries, such as China and India, need to strengthen their economies through industrialisation. However this needs to be achieved at the same time as protecting the environment and sustainable use of energy. The EU has committed itself to assisting developing countries to achieve their goals in four priority areas: 1) raising the policy profile of climate change; 2) support for adaption to climate change; 3) support for mitigation of climate change; and 4) capacity development. This comparative study is part of the EU funded SPRING project which seeks to understand and assess Chinese and European competencies, with the aim of facilitating greater cooperation in future climate and environment research.

  16. Municipal climate change policies. A case study for Amsterdam

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schol, E.; Van den Bosch, A.; Ligthart, F.A.T.M.; Roemer, J.C.; Ruijg, G.J.; Schaeffer, G.J.; Dinkelman, G.H.; Kok, I.C.; De Paauw, K.F.B.

    1999-01-01

    Insight in the local policy options with respect to climate change is provided, in this case within the sphere of influence of Amsterdam local authorities. A list of new policy options for CO 2 reduction has been made with the assistance of local policy makers and representatives of interest groups. These policy options have been divided into three qualitative scenarios: Institutional Cultural Change, Technological Innovation and Least-Regrets. The environmental, economic and other effects have been described for each policy option. The three most interesting policy options have been selected by local policymakers and representatives of interest groups during a workshop. Implementation strategies have been developed for the options selected. These strategies have been discussed during a second workshop. The reduction target, stabilisation of CO 2 emissions in 2015 compared to 1993, can be reached by a combination of all the new policy options. The three selected policy options count for 40% of this total CO 2 emission reduction. Finally, a general outline on the methodology can also be applied to other cities and municipalities. For example, this methodology can be used by participants of Cities for Climate Protection, an initiative of the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives, or the Netherlands Climate Association. 136 refs

  17. Climate changes your business

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    Businesses face much bigger climate change costs than they realise. That is the conclusion of Climate Changes Your Business. The climate change risks that companies should be paying more attention to are physical risks, regulatory risks as well as risk to reputation and the emerging risk of litigation, says the report. It argues that the risks associated with climate change tend to be underestimated

  18. Understanding climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.; Gautier, C.; Andre, J.C.; Balstad, R.; Boucher, O.; Brasseur, G.; Chahine, M.T.; Chanin, M.L.; Ciais, P.; Corell, W.; Duplessy, J.C.; Hourcade, J.C.; Jouzel, J.; Kaufman, Y.J.; Laval, K.; Le Treut, H.; Minster, J.F.; Moore, B. III; Morel, P.; Rasool, S.I.; Remy, F.; Smith, R.C.; Somerville, R.C.J.; Wood, E.F.; Wood, H.; Wunsch, C.

    2007-01-01

    Climatic change is gaining ground and with no doubt is stimulated by human activities. It is therefore urgent to better understand its nature, importance and potential impacts. The chapters of this book have been written by US and French experts of the global warming question. After a description of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, GIEC in French) consensus, they present the past and present researches on each of the main component of the climate system, on the question of climatic change impacts and on the possible answers. The conclusion summarizes the results of each chapter. Content: presentation of the IPCC; greenhouse effect, radiation balance and clouds; atmospheric aerosols and climatic change; global water cycle and climate; influence of climatic change on the continental hydrologic cycle; ocean and climate; ice and climate; global carbon cycle; about some impacts of climatic change on Europe and the Atlantic Ocean; interaction between atmospheric chemistry and climate; climate and society, the human dimension. (J.S.)

  19. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human

  20. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Morrow

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1 the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2 the context within which the policy was developed; 3 the relevant processes; and 4 the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should

  1. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  2. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  3. Modelling the effects of climate change on the energy system-A case study of Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seljom, Pernille; Rosenberg, Eva; Fidje, Audun; Haugen, Jan Erik; Meir, Michaela; Rekstad, John; Jarlset, Thore

    2011-01-01

    The overall objective of this work is to identify the effects of climate change on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. Changes in the future wind- and hydro-power resource potential, and changes in the heating and cooling demand are analysed to map the effects of climate change. The impact of climate change is evaluated with an energy system model, the MARKAL Norway model, to analyse the future cost optimal energy system. Ten climate experiments, based on five different global models and six emission scenarios, are used to cover the range of possible future climate scenarios and of these three experiments are used for detailed analyses. This study indicate that in Norway, climate change will reduce the heating demand, increase the cooling demand, have a limited impact on the wind power potential, and increase the hydro-power potential. The reduction of heating demand will be significantly higher than the increase of cooling demand, and thus the possible total direct consequence of climate change will be reduced energy system costs and lower electricity production costs. The investments in offshore wind and tidal power will be reduced and electric based vehicles will be profitable earlier. - Highlights: → Climate change will make an impact on the Norwegian energy system towards 2050. → An impact is lower Norwegian electricity production costs and increased electricity export. → Climate change gives earlier profitable investments in electric based vehicles. → Climate change reduces investments in offshore wind and tidal power.

  4. Studies to support the IPCC and other climate change discussions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwengels, P.

    1991-01-01

    Developing countries and multilateral development banks are recognizing that the capital requirements for increasing energy supply - particularly electricity - and the foreign exchange implications of increasing imports of fossil fuels will become a major constraint to continued economic development for many countries. Thus, for most countries, business-as-usual energy development is not sustainable on strictly economic terms. In addition, the inefficient fossil-fueled energy systems in developing countries are major contributors to the growing local and regional environmental problems in these nations. There is growing recognition in many countries that economic development must be environmentally sustainable as well, and that traditional energy development often does not meet this test. The industrialized countries are becoming concerned about the risks of global climate change. While recognizing that they themselves are the major historic contributors to greenhouse gas build-up, they also can see that rapid economic development in the developing world along traditional energy-intensive patterns could drive future growth in greenhouse gas emissions. The industrialized countries currently provide significant amounts of assistance to developing countries in the energy sector. The concerns about climate change provide strong incentives to these countries to intensify their energy-related assistance, to improve international cooperation in this area and, most importantly, to redirect energy assistance toward more efficient and cleaner technologies

  5. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Kolshus, Hans H.; Torvanger, Asbjoern

    2000-08-01

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  6. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    OpenAIRE

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The ai...

  7. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come

  8. Satellite Observation Systems for Polar Climate Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Comiso, Josefino C.

    2012-01-01

    The key observational tools for detecting large scale changes of various parameters in the polar regions have been satellite sensors. The sensors include passive and active satellite systems in the visible, infrared and microwave frequencies. The monitoring started with Tiros and Nimbus research satellites series in the 1970s but during the period, not much data was stored digitally because of limitations and cost of the needed storage systems. Continuous global data came about starting with the launch of ocean color, passive microwave, and thermal infrared sensors on board Nimbus-7 and Synthetic Aperture Radar, Radar Altimeter and Scatterometer on board SeaSat satellite both launched in 1978. The Nimbus-7 lasted longer than expected and provided about 9 years of useful data while SeaSat quit working after 3 months but provided very useful data that became the baseline for follow-up systems with similar capabilities. Over the years, many new sensors were launched, some from Japan Aeronautics and Space Agency (JAXA), some from the European Space Agency (ESA) and more recently, from RuSSia, China, Korea, Canada and India. For polar studies, among the most useful sensors has been the passive microwave sensor which provides day/night and almost all weather observation of the surface. The sensor provide sea surface temperature, precipitation, wind, water vapor and sea ice concentration data that have been very useful in monitoring the climate of the region. More than 30 years of such data are now available, starting with the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) on board the Nimbus-7, the Special Scanning Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on board a Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer on board the EOS/ Aqua satellite. The techniques that have been developed to derive geophysical parameters from data provided by these and other sensors and associated instrumental and algorithm errors and validation techniques

  9. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  10. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013

  11. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Datasets from a Major Crop Modeling Study contain projected country and regional changes in grain crop yields due to global climate change. Equilibrium and transient...

  12. Climate change research - Danish contributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joergensen, A.M.K.; Fenger, J.; Halsnaes, K.

    2001-01-01

    The book describes a series of Danish scientific and technical studies. They broadly reflect the fields and disciplines embraced by assessments of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but with an emphasis on natural sciences (i.e. climate investigations and impact studies). After the general introduction, that presents the issue and gives a summary of the content of the book, the chapters are organised in four parts: 1. The Climate System and Climate Variations. 2. Climate Change Scenarios. 3. Impacts of Climate Change. 4. Policy Aspects. Each chapter is indexed separately. (LN)

  13. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Home / News / Fact sheets / Detail WHO /A. Craggs Climate change and health 1 February 2018 ","datePublished":"2018-02- ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  14. The effect of climate change on rural livestock farming: case study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The current paper further identifies the effect of climate change (e.g. drought, temperature and rainfall) on farmers and key stakeholders while establishing how they handle challenges associated with climate change in the study district. Data were collected from 22 participants, including officials associated with Veterinary ...

  15. Climate Change and Malaria

    OpenAIRE

    Goklany;, I. M.

    2004-01-01

    Sir David A. King's claim that "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" "Climate change is the most severe problem that we are facing today—more serious even than the threat of terrorism" ("Climate change

  16. Trees and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Dettenmaier, Megan; Kuhns, Michael; Unger, Bethany; McAvoy, Darren

    2017-01-01

    This fact sheet describes the complex relationship between forests and climate change based on current research. It explains ways that trees can mitigate some of the risks associated with climate change. It details the impacts that forests are having on the changing climate and discuss specific ways that trees can be used to reduce or counter carbon emissions directly and indirectly.

  17. Climatic change and nuclear

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schneider, M.

    2003-01-01

    One of the main priorities of the WWF is to increase the implementing of solutions relative to the greenhouse effect fight. In this framework the foundation published a study on the nuclear facing the climatic change problem. The following chapters are detailed: the nuclear and the negotiations on the climatic change; the nuclear close; the unrealistic hypothesis of the nuclear forecast; the nuclear facing other energy supplying options; supplying efficiency for heating, electric power, gas and renewable energies; the consumption efficiency facing the nuclear; the economical aspects; the deregulation effect; the political aspects; the nuclear AND the greenhouse effect. (A.L.B.)

  18. Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore

    OpenAIRE

    Ai Sian Ng; May O. Lwin; Augustine Pang

    2017-01-01

    The world decided in December 2015 to take actions to reduce global warming. To contribute toward this goal, this research examines possible policy levers for inclusion in the climate change ratification plan. A case study of the measures taken by the Republic of Singapore, a low-lying 719.2 km2 island without natural resources in Asia, is conducted. Being vulnerable to climate change impact and yet having to balance her people’s needs and economic progress with limited resources, the measure...

  19. Communicating for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from a Case Study with Nature-Based Tour Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timm, K.; Sparrow, E. B.; Pettit, E. C.; Trainor, S. F.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing temperatures are projected to have a positive effect on the length of Alaska's tourism season, but the natural attractions that tourism relies on, such as glaciers, wildlife, fish, or other natural resources, may change. In order to continue to derive benefits from these resources, nature-based tour operators may have to adapt to these changes, and communication is an essential, but poorly understood, component of the climate change adaptation process. The goal of this study was to determine how to provide useful climate change information to nature-based tour operators by answering the following questions: 1. What environmental changes do nature-based tour operators perceive? 2. How are nature-based tour operators responding to climate and environmental change? 3. What climate change information do nature-based tour operators need? To answer these questions, twenty-four nature-based tour operators representing 20 different small and medium sized businesses in Juneau, Alaska were interviewed. The results show that many of Juneau's nature-based tour operators are observing, responding to, and in some cases, actively planning for further changes in the environment. The types of responses tended to vary depending on the participants' certainty in climate change and the perceived risks to their organization. Using these two factors, this study proposes a framework to classify climate change responses for the purpose of generating meaningful information and communication processes that promote adaptation and build adaptive capacity. During the course of the study, several other valuable lessons were learned about communicating about adaptation. The results of this study demonstrate that science communication research has an important place in the practice of promoting and fostering climate change adaptation. While the focus of this study was tour operators, the lessons learned may be valuable to other organizations striving to engage unique groups in climate

  20. Climate change mitigation through adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Anouschka R.; Dymond, Caren C.; Mladenoff, David J.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is projected to have negative implications for forest ecosystems and their dependent communities and industries. Adaptation studies of forestry practices have focused on maintaining the provisioning of ecosystem services; however, those practices may have implications for climate

  1. Global and regional health effects of future food production under climate change: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Garnett, Tara; Godfray, H Charles J; Gollin, Douglas; Rayner, Mike; Ballon, Paola; Scarborough, Peter

    2016-05-07

    One of the most important consequences of climate change could be its effects on agriculture. Although much research has focused on questions of food security, less has been devoted to assessing the wider health impacts of future changes in agricultural production. In this modelling study, we estimate excess mortality attributable to agriculturally mediated changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors by cause of death for 155 world regions in the year 2050. For this modelling study, we linked a detailed agricultural modelling framework, the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT), to a comparative risk assessment of changes in fruit and vegetable consumption, red meat consumption, and bodyweight for deaths from coronary heart disease, stroke, cancer, and an aggregate of other causes. We calculated the change in the number of deaths attributable to climate-related changes in weight and diets for the combination of four emissions pathways (a high emissions pathway, two medium emissions pathways, and a low emissions pathway) and three socioeconomic pathways (sustainable development, middle of the road, and more fragmented development), which each included six scenarios with variable climatic inputs. The model projects that by 2050, climate change will lead to per-person reductions of 3·2% (SD 0·4%) in global food availability, 4·0% (0·7%) in fruit and vegetable consumption, and 0·7% (0·1%) in red meat consumption. These changes will be associated with 529,000 climate-related deaths worldwide (95% CI 314,000-736,000), representing a 28% (95% CI 26-33) reduction in the number of deaths that would be avoided because of changes in dietary and weight-related risk factors between 2010 and 2050. Twice as many climate-related deaths were associated with reductions in fruit and vegetable consumption than with climate-related increases in the prevalence of underweight, and most climate-related deaths were projected to

  2. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  3. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  4. Climate change research in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dawson, K.

    1994-01-01

    The current consensus on climatic change in Canada is briefly summarized, noting the results of modelling of the effects of a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 , the nonuniformity of climate change across the country, the uncertainties in local responses to change, and the general agreement that 2-4 degrees of warming will occur for each doubling of CO 2 . Canadian government response includes programs aimed at reducing the uncertainties in the scientific understanding of climate change and in the socio-economic response to such change. Canadian climate change programs include participation in large-scale experiments on such topics as heat transport in the ocean, and sources and sinks of greenhouse gases; development of next-generation climate models; studying the social and economic effects of climate change in the Great Lakes Basin and Mackenzie River Basin; investigation of paleoclimates; and analysis of climate data for long-term trends

  5. One hundred years: A collective case study of climate change education in Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloch, Leonard Mark

    This collective case study examined how five K-12 science teachers taught about climate change during Fall 2013, and asked how the University of Georgia can support climate change education. The participants were all experienced teachers, and included: three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. 'Postcarbonism', an emerging theoretical framework, shaped the research and guided the analysis. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they were united in: 1) their focus on mitigation over adaptation, and 2) presenting climate change as a remote problem with simple solutions. The teachers drew on varied resources, but in all cases, their most valuable resources were their own skills, knowledge and personality. The University of Georgia can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Curriculum developers might consider building upon the work of outstanding teach.

  6. Northward migration under a changing climate: a case study of blackgum (Nyssa Sylvatica)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johanna Desprez; Basil V. Iannone III; Peilin Yang; Christopher M. Oswalt; Songlin Fei

    2014-01-01

    Species are predicted to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change. Region-wide, empirically-based studies, however, are still limited to support these predictions. We used a model tree species, blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica), to study climate-induced range shift. Data collected from two separate sampling periods (1980s and 2007) by the USDA’s Forestry...

  7. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandel, R.

    1990-01-01

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  8. Climatic Change. Human Influence?

    OpenAIRE

    Gonçalves, Dionísio; Leite, Solange; Ribeiro, A.C.; Figueiredo, Tomás de

    2016-01-01

    We begin by presenting the functioning of the Climate System and the variety of climates that occurs on the surface of the globe. We analyze climate change based on the sun's orbital parameters and other causes, focusing on the current interglacial period and the influence it had on the development of human societies. The following text looks on developing of the climate of the last 1000 years, with considerations about the warm medieval climate, the little ice age, the recovery...

  9. Comparing smallholder farmers’ perception of climate change with meteorological data: A case study from southwestern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayansina Ayanlade

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines smallholder farmers’ perceptions of climate change, climate variability and their impacts, and adaptation strategies adopted over the past three decades. We use ethnographic analysis, combined with Cumulative Departure Index (CDI, Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI analysis, and correlation analysis to compare farmers’ perceptions in Southwestern Nigeria with historical meteorological data, in order to assess the way farmers’ observations mirror the climatic trends. The results show that about 67% of farmers who participated had observed recent changes in climate. Perceptions of rural farmers on climate change and variability are consistent with the climatic trend analysis. RAI and CDI results illustrate that not less than 11 out of 30 years in each study site experienced lower-than-normal rainfall. Climatic trends show fluctuations in both early growing season (EGS and late growing season (LGS rainfall and the 5-year moving average suggests a reduction in rainfall over the 30 years. Climatic trends confirmed farmers’ perceptions that EGS and LGS precipitations are oscillating, that rainfall onset is becoming later, and EGS rainfall is reducing. Overall impacts of climate change on both crops and livestock appear to be highly negative, much more on maize (62.8%, yam (52.2%, poultry (67% and cattle (63.2%. Years of farming experiences and level of income of farmers appear to have a significant relationship with farmers’ choice of adaptation strategies, with r≥0.60@ p<0.05 and r≥0.520@ p<0.05 respectively. The study concluded that farmers’ perceptions of climate change mirror meteorological analysis, though their perceptions were based on local climate parameters. Smallholder farmers are particularly vulnerable to climate change since the majority of them do not have enough resources to cope.

  10. Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

  11. Toward a Theoretical Framework for Studying Climate Change Policies: Insights from the Case Study of Singapore

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ai Sian Ng

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The world decided in December 2015 to take actions to reduce global warming. To contribute toward this goal, this research examines possible policy levers for inclusion in the climate change ratification plan. A case study of the measures taken by the Republic of Singapore, a low-lying 719.2 km2 island without natural resources in Asia, is conducted. Being vulnerable to climate change impact and yet having to balance her people’s needs and economic progress with limited resources, the measures taken by this small country could offer policy insights for small states and states without access to alternative energy sources. This research analyzes the online policy documents posted by eleven organizations to answer the main research question of identifying policy levers as theoretical constructs to form a framework that can be used to study climate change policies. A qualitative data analysis software, QSR NVivo 10, is used to classify the proposed nodes developed by the researchers using a system perspective integrating the insights from the key international climate change frameworks with the theoretical concepts from the model of pro-environmental behavior. The findings can offer insights toward developing a new contextual influence framework, which can help strengthen policy development and outcome measurement.

  12. Climate change, income and happiness: An empirical study for Barcelona

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sekulova, F.; van den Bergh, J.C.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    The present article builds upon the results of an empirical study exploring key factors which determine life satisfaction in Barcelona. Based on a sample of 840 individuals we first look at the way changes in income, notably income reductions, associated with the current economic situation in Spain,

  13. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  14. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  15. An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

    2017-02-01

    This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

  16. Climate change, poverty and agricultural resource degradation: a case study of district d.g. khan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imran, M.; Bano, S.; Dawood, M.; Tarar, M.A.; Ali, A.

    2012-01-01

    Global development agendas are now being bonded with adaptation to climate change. Sustainable biodiversity and community adaptation to climate change are closely associated as depletion of natural resources adversely affects the living standard of people. Rapid climatic changes and intervention to regulate water resources in Indus delta of Pakistan have put the lives of millions of people residing near the Indus river belt at the stake of climate change. Therefore, this study was designed to inquire the socio-economic conditions of the people residing near the Indus river bank and the perceived impact of climate change on river belt agricultural resources specifically in district D. G. Khan. Based on primary data study employed univariate and bivariate analysis which suggested flood, wind storm and temperature as the significant climate change parameters affecting the land fertility, forest and fisheries. The Foster Greer and Thorbeck technique for calculating the poverty indicated that majority (82%) of population was below poverty line and most of them entirely depend on river belt agricultural resources which were found to be depleting due to rapid climate change. (author)

  17. Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  18. Climate change research in Bulgaria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iotova, A.; Koleva, E.

    1995-01-01

    Climate is traditionally one of the main fields of research interest and objects for study in Bulgaria. Therefore, many investigations on its genesis and specific features are carried out in the past and present. Recently, climate change research appears to be the most actual topic and it is in the centre of climatic studies. A major part of these studies are realized at the National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) because of its essential role in collection and analysis of the basic climatic data for the country. A brief description of the climate change research at NIMH is presented and the obtained results are summarized

  19. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Western US Electricity System: A Scoping Study

    OpenAIRE

    Coughlin, Katie

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of the possible physical impacts of climate change on the electric power system, and how these impacts could be incorporated into resource planning in the Western United States. While many aspects of climate change and energy have been discussed in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic review of the relationship between specific physical effects and the quantitative analyses that are commonly used in planning studies. The core of the prob...

  20. Climate Change and Apple Farming in Indian Himalayas: A Study of Local Perceptions and Responses

    OpenAIRE

    Basannagari, Basavaraj; Kala, Chandra Prakash

    2013-01-01

    Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (...

  1. Global vs climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watson, H.L.; Bach, M.C.; Goklany, I.M.

    1991-01-01

    The various agents of global change that will affect the state of natural resources 50-100 years from now are discussed. These include economic and population growth, technological progress, and climatic change. The importance of climatic change lies in its effects on natural resources and on human activities that depend on those resources. Other factors affecting those resources include the demand on those resources from an increasing population and from a growing economy, and a more efficient use of those resources that comes from technological changes and from the consequences of economic growth itself. It is shown that there is a considerable ability to adapt to climatic change, since humans already have an intrinsic ability to adapt to the wide variations in climates that already exist and since technological developments can make it easier to cope with climatic variability. It appears that agents other than climatic change are more significant to the future state of natural resources than climatic change. Criteria for selecting options for addressing climatic change are outlined. Technological change and economic growth are seen to be key response options, since the vulnerability to climatic change depends on economic resources and technological progress. Specific options to stimulate sustainable economic growth and technological progress are listed. 16 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  2. Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change: A Case Study Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenbath, Thien-Kim Leckie

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation shows the evolution of five undergraduate students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change throughout a lecture hall course on climate change. This research was informed by conceptual change theory and students' inaccurate ideas of climate change. Subjects represented different levels of climate change understanding at…

  3. Climate change: against despair

    OpenAIRE

    McKinnon, Catriona

    2014-01-01

    In the face of accelerating climate change and the parlous state of its politics, despair is tempting. This paper analyses two manifestations of despair about climate change related to (1) the inefficacy of personal emissions reductions, and (2) the inability to make a difference to climate change through personal emissions reductions. On the back of an analysis of despair as a loss of hope, the paper argues that the judgements grounding each form of despair are unsound. The paper concludes w...

  4. Impacts of climate change and variability on transportation systems and infrastructure : Gulf Coast study, phase 2 : task 2 : climate variability and change in Mobile, Alabama.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-01

    Despite increasing confidence in global climate change projections in recent years, projections of : climate effects at local scales remains scarce. Location-specific risks to transportation systems : imposed by changes in climate are not yet well kn...

  5. The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Ortiz, Ramon A.; Markandya, Anil

    2011-01-01

    Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall...... to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates...... risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable...

  6. Chatham Islands Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Salinger, J.; Thompson, C.; Ramsay, D.; Wild, M.

    2005-06-01

    This brief report provides guidance on climate change specific to the Chatham Islands, to complement the information recently produced for local government by the Ministry for the Environment in 'Climate Change Effects and Impacts Assessment: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand' and 'Coastal Hazards and Climate Change: A guidance manual for Local Government in New Zealand'. These previous reports contain a lot of generic information on climate change, and how to assess associated risks, that is relevant to the Chatham Islands Council.

  7. Land use and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Koomen, E.; Moel, de, H.; Steingröver, E.G.; Rooij, van, S.A.M.; Eupen, van, M.

    2012-01-01

    Land use is majorly involved with climate change concerns and this chapter discusses and reviews the interrelationships between the vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation aspects of land use and climate change. We review a number of key studies on climate change issues regarding land productivity, land use and land management (LPLULM), identifying key findings, pointing out research needs, and raising economic/policy questions to ponder. Overall, this chapter goes beyond previous reviews ...

  8. Civil war, climate change, and development: a scenario study for Sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Devitt, C.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2012-01-01

    This article presents a model of development, civil war and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war

  9. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    and the number and types of interviews conducted are, for example, not always clear. Information on crucial aspects of qualitative research like researcher positionality, social positions of key informants, the use of field assistants, language issues and post-fieldwork treatment of data is also lacking in many...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork......There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...

  10. Uncertainties and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Gier, A.M.; Opschoor, J.B.; Van de Donk, W.B.H.J.; Hooimeijer, P.; Jepma, J.; Lelieveld, J.; Oerlemans, J.; Petersen, A.

    2008-01-01

    Which processes in the climate system are misunderstood? How are scientists dealing with uncertainty about climate change? What will be done with the conclusions of the recently published synthesis report of the IPCC? These and other questions were answered during the meeting 'Uncertainties and climate change' that was held on Monday 26 November 2007 at the KNAW in Amsterdam. This report is a compilation of all the presentations and provides some conclusions resulting from the discussions during this meeting. [mk] [nl

  11. Wine and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Ashenfelter, Orley; Storchmann, Karl

    2014-01-01

    In this article we provide an overview of the extensive literature on the impact of weather and climate on grapes and wine with the goal of describing how climate change is likely to affect their production. We start by discussing the physical impact of weather on vine phenology, berry composition and yields, and then survey the economic literature measuring the effects of temperature on wine quality, prices, costs and profits and how climate change will affect these. We also describe what ha...

  12. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

    1991-01-01

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  13. Climate Change and Transportation

    OpenAIRE

    Yevdokimov, Yuri

    2010-01-01

    As stated at the beginning of this chapter, the relationship between transportation and climate is two-directional. Based on our statistical analysis performed for Canada, we can make some general conclusions about this relationship. On the one hand, transportation is one of the largest contributors to GHG emissions which, in turn, cause various changes in climate. On the other hand, these climate changes negatively affect transportation in terms of its infrastructure and operations. Therefor...

  14. US country studies program: Support for climate change studies, national plans, and technology assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the objectives of the next phase of the U.S. Country Studies Program which was launched in support of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The next phases of this program aim to: assist countries in preparing Climate Change Action plans; support technology assessments and development of technology initiatives; enhance exchange of information and expertise in support of FCCC. The program offers support for these processes in the form of handbooks which have been published to aid in preparing action plans, and to provide information on methane, forestry, and energy technologies. In addition an array of training workshops have been and are scheduled to offer hands on instruction to participants, expert advice is available from trained personnel, and modeling tools are available to aid in development of action plans.

  15. The Continuation of Cloud Statistics for NASA Climate Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wylie, Donald P.

    2001-01-01

    The weather systems, cyclones, and anticyclones, along with air trajectories and cloud forms, are compared to past studies of the Arctic to assess compatibility of the four month study of the Arctic Cloud Experiment flights of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE/ACE) with past climatologies. The frequency and movement of cyclones (lows) and anticyclones (highs) followed the general eastward and northeastward directions indicated by past studies. Most cyclones (lows) came from eastern Siberia and the Bering Sea to the south and moved north across the Bering Straight or Alaska into the Arctic Ocean. They generally weakened in central pressure as they moved poleward. Anticyclones (highs) were most common in the eastern Beaufort Sea near Canada in June and July as predicted from previous studies. However, many cyclones and anticyclones moved in westward directions which is rare in other latitudes. Erratic changes in shape and intensity on a daily basis also were observed. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) analysis generally reflected the Surface Heat Budget in the Arctic (SHEBA) Ship World Meteorological Organization (WMO) observations which it used. However, NCEP temperatures were biased warm by 1.0 to 1.5 C in April and early May. In July when the surface temperature were at the freezing/thawing point, the NCEP analysis changed to a cold bias of -1.0 C. Dew points had smaller biases except for July where they were biased cold by -1.4 C. Wind speeds had a -2 m/s low bias for the six windiest days. Surface barometric pressures had consistently low biases from -1.2 to -2.8 hPa in all four months. Air parcel historical trajectories were mainly from the south or from local anticyclonic gyres in the Beaufort Sea. Most air came to the SHEBA Ship from the north Pacific Ocean or from Alaska and Canada and occasionally from eastern Siberia. Very few trajectories traced back across the pole to Europe and Central Asia. Cloud cover was high, as

  16. Teaching Climate Change Using System Models: An Understanding Global Change Project Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bean, J. R.; Stuhlsatz, M.; Bracey, Z. B.; Marshall, C. R.

    2017-12-01

    Teaching and learning about historical and anthropogenic climate change in the classroom requires integrating instructional resources that address physical, chemical, and biological processes. The Understanding Global Change (UGC) framework and system models developed at the University of California Museum of Paleontology (UCMP) provide visualizations of the relationships and feedbacks between Earth system processes, and the consequences of anthropogenic activities on global climate. This schema provides a mechanism for developing pedagogic narratives that are known to support comprehension and retention of information and relationships. We designed a nine-day instructional unit for middle and high school students that includes a sequence of hands-on, inquiry-based, data rich activities combined with conceptual modeling exercises intended to foster students' development of systems thinking and their understanding of human influences on Earth system processes. The pilot unit, Sea Level Rise in the San Francisco Bay Area, addresses the human causes and consequences of sea level rise and related Earth system processes (i.e., the water cycle and greenhouse effect). Most of the content is not Bay Area specific, and could be used to explore sea level rise in any coastal region. Students completed pre and post assessments, which included questions about the connectedness of components of the Earth system and probed their attitudes towards participating in environmental stewardship activities. Students sequentially drew models representing the content explored in the activities and wrote short descriptions of their system diagrams that were collected by teachers for analysis. We also randomly assigned classes to engage in a very short additional intervention that asked students to think about the role that humans play in the Earth system and to draw themselves into the models. The study will determine if these students have higher stewardship scores and more frequently

  17. Comparison of two down-scaling methods for climate study and climate change on the mountain areas in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piazza, Marie; Page, Christian; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent; Deque, Michel

    2013-01-01

    Mountain regions are highly vulnerable to climate change and are likely to be among the areas most impacted by global warming. But climate projections for the end of the 21. century are developed with general circulation models of climate, which do not present a sufficient horizontal resolution to accurately evaluate the impacts of warming on these regions. Several techniques are then used to perform a spatial down-scaling (on the order of 10 km). There are two categories of down-scaling methods: dynamical methods that require significant computational resources for the achievement of regional climate simulations at high resolution, and statistical methods that require few resources but an observation dataset over a long period and of good quality. In this study, climate simulations of the global atmospheric model ARPEGE projections over France are down-scaled according to a dynamical method, performed with the ALADIN-Climate regional model, and a statistical method performed with the software DSClim developed at CERFACS. The two down-scaling methods are presented and the results on the climate of the French mountains are evaluated for the current climate. Both methods give similar results for average snowfall. However extreme events of total precipitation (droughts, intense precipitation events) are largely underestimated by the statistical method. Then, the results of both methods are compared for two future climate projections, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenario A1B of IPCC. The two methods agree on fewer frost days, a significant decrease in the amounts of solid precipitation and an average increase in the percentage of dry days of more than 10%. The results obtained on Corsica are more heterogeneous but they are questionable because the reduced spatial domain is probably not very relevant regarding statistical sampling. (authors)

  18. Synopsis of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long

    2014-01-01

    Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...

  19. Financing climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwer, L.M.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources.

  20. The climate is changing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alfsen, Knut H.

    2001-01-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has finalized its Third Assessment Report. Among its conclusions is that we must expect continued changes in our climate, despite our efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Planning for and adapting to climate change are therefore necessary. As a starting point, CICERO has written this short note on expected impacts in Norway. The main conclusions are that (1) Adaptation to climate change is necessary (2) Substantial impacts are expected for several important sectors in Norway (3) The local and central authorities should now consider and start planning for adaptation measures. (4) There is still a need for more knowledge about potential impacts of climate change in Norway. (author)

  1. Revisiting climate changes. Isotope studies open scientific windows to the past

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibson, John; Aggarwal, Pradeep

    2001-01-01

    Earlier this year, scientists warned that 'an increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system'. The conclusion came from the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Today, it is widely accepted that recent warning is largely a product of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere derived from post-industrial combustion of fossil fuels and biomass energy sources. However, great uncertainty remains regarding the causal relationships between specific parameters and climate phenomena, and regarding the impacts of climate change on the earth's water cycle. The science of climate change is dynamic. The IAEA contributes to studies via coordination of climate research, participation and support for international scientific programmes, and dissemination of isotope technology and applications. The third quadrennial scientific gathering on the use of isotopes for studying environmental change was held at the IAEA in Vienna 23-27 April 2001. The Conference - attended by 150 experts from 38 countries and seven international organizations - served as an important forum for presentation of results, discussion of ideas and concepts, establishment of international collaboration, and identification of avenues for future research. Selected highlights of issues discussed include: Isotopes are being used as validation tools for predicting impacts of deforestation of the Amazon Basin and for examining the past isotope signals of El Nino events; Isotope signatures in ice cores from low-latitude environments are showing similar temperature signals to polar ice cores,suggesting widespread (global) changes in the past; Isotopes are being used in the World Ocean Circulation Experiment to trace the movement, mixing and residence time of oceanic circulation patterns. Changes in ocean circulation are one of the most important factors controlling the variability of the

  2. Trade and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tamiotti, L.; Teh, R.; Kulacoglu, V. (World Trade Organization (WTO), Geneva (Switzerland)); Olhoff, A.; Simmons, B.; Abaza, H. (United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (Denmark))

    2009-06-15

    The Report aims to improve understanding about the linkages between trade and climate change. It shows that trade intersects with climate change in a multitude of ways. For example, governments may introduce a variety of policies, such as regulatory measures and economic incentives, to address climate change. This complex web of measures may have an impact on international trade and the multilateral trading system. The Report begins with a summary of the current state of scientific knowledge on climate change and on the options available for responding to the challenge of climate change. The scientific review is followed by a part on the economic aspects of the link between trade and climate change, and these two parts set the context for the subsequent parts of the Report, which looks at the policies introduced at both the international and national level to address climate change. The part on international policy responses to climate change describes multilateral efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to the effects of climate change, and also discusses the role of the current trade and environment negotiations in promoting trade in technologies that aim to mitigate climate change. The final part of the Report gives an overview of a range of national policies and measures that have been used in a number of countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to increase energy efficiency. It presents key features in the design and implementation of these policies, in order to draw a clearer picture of their overall effect and potential impact on environmental protection, sustainable development and trade. It also gives, where appropriate, an overview of the WTO rules that may be relevant to such measures. (author)

  3. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  4. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  5. Criteria for selecting a CO2/climate change region of study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cushman, R.; Easterling, W.; Rosenberg, N.; Malone, T.; Edmonds, J.; Scott, M.; Stoke, G.

    1989-01-01

    This effort has three near-term goals: (1) to develop robust methods of analysis including the analysis of uncertainty; (2) to develop information systems to support CO 2 /climate change analysis; and (3) to develop channels of communication among researchers and between researchers and parties potentially affected by CO 2 /climate change. Initially, the program will focus on a single region of the United States, employ a historical analog climate, and analyze the interactions of all of the resources resident within that region as they might evolve under current conditions and under evolving CO 2 /climate change over the next 50 years. Five elements of the program will address the issues of: Analysis, Information Systems, Uncertainty, Knowledge Transfer, and Coordination. This paper will give special attention to the analytical framework and in particular to the criteria for selecting a region for study. 19 refs., 2 figs

  6. Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartolino, V.; Margonski, P.; Lindegren, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios...... of fisheries exploitation and climate change on the temporal dynamics of the central Baltic herring stock. Alternative scenarios of increasing sea surface temperature and decreasing salinity of the Baltic Sea from a global climate model were combined with two alternative fishing scenarios, and their direct......-term fish dynamics can be an informative tool to derive expectations of the potential long-term impact of alternative future scenarios of exploitation and climate change...

  7. A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

    2016-04-01

    In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station relocations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important

  8. Changing Minds about the Changing Climate: a Longitudinal Study of the Impacts of a Climate Change Curriculum on Undergraduate Student Knowledge and Attitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkholder, K. C.; Mooney, S.

    2016-12-01

    In the fall of 2013, 24 sophomore students enrolled in a three-course Learning Community entitled "The Ethics and Science of Climate Change." This learning community was comprised of two disciplinary courses in environmental ethics and environmental science as well as a seminar course in which the students designed and delivered climate change education events in the community beyond campus. Students were surveyed prior to and upon completion of the semester using a variant of the Yale Climate Literacy Survey in order to assess their knowledge of and attitudes towards climate change. An analysis of those survey results demonstrated that the non-traditional curriculum resulted in significant improvements that extended beyond disciplinary knowledge of climate change: the student attitudes about climate change and our cultural response to the issues associated with climate change shifted as well. Finally, a third administration of the survey (n=17) plus follow up interviews with 10 of those original students conducted during the students' senior year in 2016 suggest that the changes that the students underwent as sophomores were largely retained.

  9. A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

    2011-12-01

    Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used

  10. Engaging Students in Climate Change Science and Communication through a Multi-disciplinary Study Abroad Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, L. A.; Polk, J.; Strenecky, B.

    2014-12-01

    The implications of the climate change phenomenon are far-reaching, and will impact every person on Earth. These problems will be complex, and will require leaders well-versed in interdisciplinary learning and international understanding. To employ a multi-disciplinary approach to studying the impact climate change is having in the world in which we live, a team of 57 Western Kentucky University (WKU) faculty, staff, and students participated in a study abroad program to seven ports in the North Sea and North Atlantic, including three ports in Iceland, onboard the Semester at Sea ship, MV Explorer. This program combined interdisciplinary learning, service learning, and international understanding toward the goal of preparing the leaders of tomorrow with the skills to address climate change challenges. Together, the group learned how climate change affects the world from varied academic perspectives, and how more often than not these perspectives are closely interrelated. Courses taught during the experience related to climate change science and communication, economics, future trends, and K-12 education. Each student also participated in a The $100 Solution™ service-learning course. While in port, each class engaged in a discipline-specific activities related to the climate change topic, while at sea students participated in class lectures, engaged in shipboard lectures by international experts in their respective fields, and participated in conversations with lifelong learners onboard the ship. A culminating point of the study abroad experience was a presentation by the WKU students to over 100 persons from the University of Akureyri in Akureyri, Iceland, representatives of neighboring Icelandic communities, environmental agencies, and tourism bureaus about what they had learned about climate change during their travels. By forging this relationship, students were able to share their knowledge, which in turn gave them a deeper understanding of the issues they

  11. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Najac, J.

    2008-11-01

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  12. Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Adapting Indian Agriculture to Global Climate Change · Climate Change: Generic Implications for Agriculture · Controlled environment facilities at IARI used for evaluating model performance in future climate change scenarios · Slide 4 · Slide 5 · Global studies indicate considerable impact of climate change in tropics.

  13. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-11-01

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  14. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onyango, J.C.O.; Ojoo-Massawa, E.; Abira, M.A.

    1997-01-01

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  15. Technology and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, R.; Layzedl, D.; McLean, G.

    2002-01-01

    This paper was the major one of the opening plenary session at the Climate Change 2 conference. The paper provides a context for assessing the needs for technologies to reduce the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. It looks at sources, sinks and trends for GHG, in the world at large and in Canada, and at efforts to develop new technologies to achieve the goals of climate change policy. The paper focusses on transport, electricity and biomass as sectors of interest, both because of their potential for contributing to climate change policy goals within Canada, and also because of research interests

  16. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  17. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  18. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  19. Climate change and wildfires

    Science.gov (United States)

    William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

    2013-01-01

    Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

  20. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other

  1. Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

    2014-08-01

    This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

  2. Regional Development and Climate Change Adaptation: A Study of the Role of Legitimacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorstensen Erik

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents results from a study of Czech Local Action Groups (LAGs, focusing on gaining knowledge about their internally perceived legitimacy and their potential role in local adaptation to climate change. Former studies on the role of governance networks in climate change adaptation have suggested that these networks’ legitimacy are crucial for their success. In this article we provide an analytical framework that can be used to address different aspects of local governance networks which are important for their legitimacy and the way they are apt as instruments for climate change adaptation actions. We also present a survey among LAG members that provide empirical data that we discuss in the article. The framework and the data are discussed with reference to existing contributions in the intersection of legitimacy, governance networks and climate change adaptation. A specific aim is to provide research based recommendations for further improving LAGs as an adaptation instrument. In addition, knowledge is generated that will be interesting for further studies of similar local governance initiatives in the climate change adaptation context.

  3. Images of climate change - a pilot study of young people's perceptions of ICT-based climate visualization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballantyne, Anne Gammelgaard; Wibeck, Victoria; Neset, Tina-Simone

    2016-01-01

    to add interactive elements should be further explored, as interaction has the potential to influence meaning-making processes. In addition, audiences’ preconceptions of climate change influence their interpretations of climate messages, which may function as a constraint to climate communication....

  4. Civic Engagement about Climate Change: A Case Study of Three Educators and Their Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chandler, Thomas; Marri, Anand R.

    2012-01-01

    This collective case study examined how three educators (a high school social studies teacher, a university social studies teacher educator, and minister teaching an adult population) used a multimedia based curriculum guide, "Teaching the Levees", to teach about climate change to examine public priorities in relation to the environment.…

  5. STUDIES CONCERNING the IMPACT of CLIMATE CHANGES on HONEYBEES BEHAVIOUR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Parvu

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim was to clarify some aspects of the biological evolution of bee families under the influence of environmental temperature and subsequent reporting of behavioural change. The experiment was conducted in a private apiary in Giurgiu County, during three years, in May and June. The biological material was represented by 14 strong colonies. The bees were maintained in vertical hives. The biological evolution of bees was analyzed in population growth period. Bee indicators were the following: egg-laying activities of the queen bee, honey bee flight activity, gentleness of bees, swarming behaviour. It was found out that by lowering the temperature with about 3°C, the number of eggs laid decreased by 11%, the differences being significant (p ≤ 0.05. In rainy years, it has been a tendency of swarming, 41.7% of bee colonies showing this trend. The irritability of bees was significantly higher in periods of warm temperatures, this occurring in the early morning hours.

  6. International Symposium on Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems, and Climate Change Studies. Presentations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2011-01-01

    Human activities have had a far-reaching impact on the aquatic environments - both marine and freshwater systems. The protection of these systems against further deterioration and the promotion of sustainable use are vital. In order to deepen understanding about the main processes affecting the present situation, as well as possible developments in the future, further investigation is required. The oceans play a major role in climate change, for example, and ocean acidification by increased CO2 release is one major threat to the world's oceans. Isotope methods can play a critical role in identifying and quantifying key processes within aquatic environments. Addressing the problems of global water resources has become a matter of urgency. Water resources are subject to multiple pressures for various reasons, including increasing populations, climate change, rising food and energy costs, the global economic crisis and pollutant loading. Isotope hydrology provides the unique and critical tools required to address complex water problems and helps managers and policy makers understand the closely intertwined relationship between water resources and the various pressures affecting them, as well as the issue of sustainability. The symposium will be an important forum for the exchange of knowledge on the present state of marine and freshwater environments, use of isotopes in water resources investigations and management, and climate change studies. The meeting will involve leading scientists in the field of climate change and hydrology, as well as representatives from other United Nations bodies and international organizations that focus on climate change and other important environmental issues. TOPICS: The role of isotopes in understanding and modelling climate change, marine ecosystems and the water cycle; Carbon dioxide sequestration and related aspects of the carbon cycle, such as ocean acidification; Isotopes in groundwater flow modelling for large aquifers

  7. Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures. A Mexican case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conde, C.; Ferrer, R. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Circuito Exterior, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: e-mail: conde@servidor.unam.mx; Orozco, S. [Escuela de Agrobiologia, Universidad Autonoma de Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala (Mexico)

    2006-07-15

    Climate extreme events (such as those associated to strong El Nino events) highly affect Mexican agriculture, since more than sixty percent of it is rainfed. The basic crop cultivated is maize, which is still the main source of nutrients for a large portion of the rural population in the country. Within the project Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba, we analyze the strategies developed by maize producers in the central region of the country to cope with climatic adverse events. Impact on rainfed maize due to climate variability and climate change conditions are studied using a crop simulation model. Several adaptation measures can be evaluated using that model. However, the effect of other stressors must be considered in an assessment of the adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change. Key stakeholders' involvement in the region helped us to decide which of the adaptive measures could be viable under the current conditions and under future climatic conditions. The construction of greenhouses, the use of compost, and dripping irrigation, were some of the techniques selected with the participation of the stakeholders. The enthusiastic responses to these measures allow us to consider that they can prevail in the future, under climate change conditions. However, the adaptation to climate change includes -besides the stated techniques- the generation of the capacities to cope with climatic adverse events, that is, to enhance the adaptive capacities to climate change among the key stakeholders. [Spanish] Los eventos climaticos extremos (como los asociados con eventos fuertes de El Nino) afectan de manera importante a la agricultura mexicana, ya que mas del sesenta por ciento de ella es de temporal, esto es, depende fundamentalmente de una buena temporada de lluvias para producir. El cultivo que se siembra es basicamente maiz, que todavia es la principal fuente de nutrientes para

  8. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levine, J.S.

    1991-01-01

    Present processes of global climate change are reviewed. The processes determining global temperature are briefly described and the concept of effective temperature is elucidated. The greenhouse effect is examined, including the sources and sinks of greenhouse gases. 18 refs

  9. Creationism & Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, S.

    2009-12-01

    Although creationists focus on the biological sciences, recently creationists have also expanded their attacks to include the earth sciences, especially on the topic of climate change. The creationist effort to deny climate change, in addition to evolution and radiometric dating, is part of a broader denial of the methodology and validity of science itself. Creationist misinformation can pose a serious problem for science educators, who are further hindered by the poor treatment of the earth sciences and climate change in state science standards. Recent changes to Texas’ science standards, for example, require that students learn “different views on the existence of global warming.” Because of Texas’ large influence on the national textbook market, textbooks presenting non-scientific “different views” about climate change—or simply omitting the subject entirely because of the alleged “controversy”—could become part of K-12 classrooms across the country.

  10. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  11. Global Climatic Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Richard A.; Woodwell, George M.

    1989-01-01

    Cites some of the evidence which suggests that the production of carbon dioxide and methane from human activities has begun to change the climate. Describes some measures which should be taken to stop or slow this progression. (RT)

  12. Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    A list of on-line training modules to help local government officials and those interested in water management issues better understand how the changing climate affects the services and resources they care about

  13. Analysis and detection of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thejll, P.; Stendel, M.

    2001-01-01

    The authors first discuss the concepts 'climate' and 'climate change detection', outlining the difficulties of the latter in terms of the properties of the former. In more detail they then discuss the analysis and detection, carried out at the Danish Climate Centre, of anthropogenic climate change and the nonanthropogenic changes regarding anthropogenic climate change the emphasis is on the improvement of global and regional climate models, and the reconstruction of past climates regarding non-anthropogenic changes the authors describe two case studies of potential solar influence on climate. (LN)

  14. Responsibility and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Jamieson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    Ibegin by providing some background to conceptions of responsibility. I note the extent of disagreement in this area, the diverse and cross-cutting distinctions that are deployed, and the relative neglect of some important problems. These facts make it difficult to attribute responsibility for climate change, but so do some features of climate change itself which I go on to illuminate. Attributions of responsibility are often contested sites because such attributions are fundamentally pragmat...

  15. The influence of causal knowledge on the willingness to change attitude towards climate change: results from an empirical study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasquier, Giulia; Pongiglione, Francesca

    2017-09-01

    Climate change is one of the significant global challenges currently facing humanity. Even though its seriousness seems to be common knowledge among the public, the reaction of individuals to it has been slow and uncertain. Many studies assert that simply knowing about climate change is not enough to generate people's behavioural response. They claim, indeed, that in some cases scientific literacy can even obstruct behavioural response instead. However, recent surveys show a rather poor understanding of climate dynamics and argue that lack of knowledge about causal relationships within climate dynamics can hinder behavioural response, since the individual is not able to understand his/her role as causal agent and therefore doesn't know how to take proper action. This study starts from the hypothesis that scientific knowledge focused on clarifying climate dynamics can make people understand not only dynamics themselves, but also their interactive relationship with the environment. Teaching materials on climate change based on such considerations were designed and implemented in a course for secondary-school students with the aim of investigating whether this kind of knowledge had an influence on students' willingness to adopt pro-environmental behaviours. Questionnaires were delivered for testing the effect of the teaching experience on knowledge and behaviour.

  16. Climate change - the impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reysset, Bertrand; Billes-Garabedian, Laurent; Henique, Julien; Pascal, Mathilde; Pirard, Philippe; Motreff, Yvon; Barbault, Robert; Weber, Jacques; Gate, Philippe; Salagnac, Jean-Luc; Desplat, Julien; Kounkou-Arnaud, Raphaelle

    2012-01-01

    This special dossier about the impacts of climate change is made of 6 contributions dealing with: the mitigation of climate effects and how to deal with them (Bertrand Reysset); how to dare and transmit (Laurent Billes-Garabedian); littoral risks, the Pas-de-Calais example (Julien Henique); extreme meteorological events and health impacts (Mathilde Pascal, Philippe Pirard, Yvon Motreff); Biodiversity and climate: the janus of global change (Robert Barbault, Jacques Weber); adapting agriculture to dryness and temperatures (Philippe Gate); Paris and the future heats of the year 2100 (Jean-Luc Salagnac, Julien Desplat, Raphaelle Kounkou-Arnaud)

  17. Climate change and forest diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

    2011-01-01

    As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

  18. Climate change: Recent findings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hesselmans, G.H.F.M.

    1993-08-01

    In the late eighties several reports have been published on climate change and sea level rise. In the meantime insights may have changed due to the availability of better and more observations and/or more advanced climate models. The aim of this report is to present the most recent findings with respect to climate change, in particular of sea level rise, storm surges and river peak flows. These climate factors are important for the safety of low-lying areas with respect to coastal erosion and flooding. In the first chapters a short review is presented of a few of the eighties reports. Furthermore, the predictions by state of the art climate models at that time are given. The reports from the eighties should be considered as 'old' information, whereas the IPCC supplement and work, for example, by Wigley should be considered as new information. To assess the latest findings two experts in this field were interviewed: dr J. Oerlemans and dr C.J.E. Schuurmans, a climate expert from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI). Their views are presented together with results published in recent papers on the subject. On the basis of this assessment, the report presents current knowledge regarding predictions of climate change (including sea-level rise) over the next century, together with an assessment of the uncertainties associated with these predictions. 14 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs

  19. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

  20. Study of Climate Change Impact to Local Rainfall Distribution in Lampung Provinces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tumiar Katarina Manik

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Global warming which leads to climate change has potential affect to Indonesia agriculture activities and production. Analyzing rainfall pattern and distribution is important to investigate the impact of global climate change to local climate. This study using rainfall data from 1976-2010 from both lowland and upland area of Lampung Province. The results show that rainfall tends to decrease since the 1990s which related to the years with El Nino event. Monsoonal pattern- having rain and dry season- still excist in Lampung; however, since most rain fell below the average, it could not meet crops water need. Farmers conclude that dry seasons were longer and seasonal pattern has been changed. Global climate change might affect Lampung rainfall distribution through changes on sea surface temperature which could intensify the El Nino effect. Therefore, watching the El Nino phenomena and how global warming affects it, is important in predicting local climate especially the rainfall distribution in order to prevent significant loss in agriculture productivities.

  1. Ecologically unequal exchange, recessions, and climate change: A longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Xiaorui

    2018-07-01

    This study investigates how the ecologically unequal exchange of carbon dioxide emissions varies with economic recessions. I propose a country-specific approach to examine (1) the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries and the "vertical flow" of exports to the United States; and (2) the variations of the relationship before, during, and after two recent economic recessions in 2001 and 2008. Using data on 69 developing nations between 2000 and 2010, I estimate time-series cross-sectional regression models with two-way fixed effects. Results suggest that the vertical flow of exports to the United States is positively associated with carbon dioxide emissions in developing countries. The magnitude of this relationship increased in 2001, 2009, and 2010, and decreased in 2008, but remained stable in non-recession periods, suggesting that economic recessions in the United States are associated with variations of ecologically unequal exchange. Results highlight the impacts of U.S. recessions on carbon emissions in developing countries through the structure of international trade. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Risk communication on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2004-10-01

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration

  3. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    The European Union ROADEX Project 1998 – 2012 was a trans-national roads co-operation aimed at developing ways for interactive and innovative management of low traffic volume roads throughout the cold climate regions of the Northern Periphery Area of Europe. Its goals were to facilitate co......-operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  4. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2001-01-01

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  5. Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2003-04-01

    Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the US, and the resulting streamflow scenarios will be made freely available on the internet for a large number of sites in the PNW to help defray the costs of including climate change information in other studies.

  6. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA climate change initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legeais, JeanFrancois; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2016-07-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of a first version of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. Within phase II, new altimeter standards have been developed and tested in order to reprocess the dataset with the best standards for climate studies. The reprocessed ECV will be released in summer 2016. We will present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product

  7. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  8. Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

    2010-05-01

    Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

  9. Potential impacts of climate change on tourism; a case study for Spain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hein, L.G.; Metzger, M.J.; Moreno, A.

    2009-01-01

    Despite an increased scientific understanding of the magnitude and regional variation in climate change in the coming decades, the societal costs of climate change remain difficult to quantify. This is mainly due to uncertainty surrounding future climate change and economic projections, as well as

  10. A new flood type classification method for use in climate change impact studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thea Turkington

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Flood type classification is an optimal tool to cluster floods with similar meteorological triggering conditions. Under climate change these flood types may change differently as well as new flood types develop. This paper presents a new methodology to classify flood types, particularly for use in climate change impact studies. A weather generator is coupled with a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to create long synthetic records of discharge to efficiently build an inventory with high number of flood events. Significant discharge days are classified into causal types using k-means clustering of temperature and precipitation indicators capturing differences in rainfall amount, antecedent rainfall and snow-cover and day of year. From climate projections of bias-corrected temperature and precipitation, future discharge and associated change in flood types are assessed. The approach is applied to two different Alpine catchments: the Ubaye region, a small catchment in France, dominated by rain-on-snow flood events during spring, and the larger Salzach catchment in Austria, affected more by rainfall summer/autumn flood events. The results show that the approach is able to reproduce the observed flood types in both catchments. Under future climate scenarios, the methodology identifies changes in the distribution of flood types and characteristics of the flood types in both study areas. The developed methodology has potential to be used flood impact assessment and disaster risk management as future changes in flood types will have implications for both the local social and ecological systems in the future.

  11. A vicious circle of fire, deforestation and climate change: an integrative study for the Amazon region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thonicke, K.; Rammig, A.; Gumpenberger, M.; Vohland, K.; Poulter, B.; Cramer, W.

    2009-04-01

    The Amazon rainforest is threatened by deforestation due to wood extraction and agricultural production leading to increasing forest fragmentation and forest degradation. These changes in land surface characteristics and water fluxes are expected to further reduce convective precipitation. Under future climate change the stability of the Amazon rainforest is likely to decrease thus leading to forest dieback (savannization) or forest degradation (secondarization). This puts the Amazon rainforest at risk to reduce the generation of precipitation, to act as a carbon sink and biodiversity hotspot. Fires increased in the past during drought years and in open vegetation thereby further accelerating forest degradation. Deforestation as a result of socioeconomic development in the Amazon basin is projected to further increase in the 21st century and brings climate-induced changes forward. Combined effects of deforestation vs. climate change on the stability of the Amazon rainforest and the role of fire in this system need to be quantified in an integrated study. We present simulation results from future climate (AR4) and deforestation (SimAmazon) experiments using the LPJmL-SPITFIRE vegetation model. Land use change is the main driving factor of forest degradation before 2050, whereas extreme climate change scenarios lead to forest degradation by the end of 2100. Forest fires increase with increasing drought conditions during the 21st century. The resulting effects on vegetation secondarization and savannization and their feedbacks on fire spread and emissions will be presented. The effect of wildfires and intentional burning on forest degradation under future climate and socioeconomic change will be discussed, and recommendations for an integrated land use and fire management are given.

  12. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  13. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  14. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  15. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    to estimate the impact of individual climate stressors on road infrastructure in Mozambique. Through these models, stressor–response functions are introduced that quantify the cost impact of a specific stressor based on the intensity of the stressor and the type of infrastructure it is affecting. Utilizing...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...

  16. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  17. Deliberation as Communication Instruction: A Study of a Climate Change Deliberation in an Introductory Biology Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, Sara A. Mehltretter

    2015-01-01

    The author argues that deliberation is an innovative method for teaching communication skills, particularly group communication, in the undergraduate science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) curriculum. A case study using a deliberation activity on global climate change in an introductory biology course demonstrates how deliberative…

  18. A preliminary study of mechanistic approach in pavement design to accommodate climate change effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harnaeni, S. R.; Pramesti, F. P.; Budiarto, A.; Setyawan, A.

    2018-03-01

    Road damage is caused by some factors, including climate changes, overload, and inappropriate procedure for material and development process. Meanwhile, climate change is a phenomenon which cannot be avoided. The effects observed include air temperature rise, sea level rise, rainfall changes, and the intensity of extreme weather phenomena. Previous studies had shown the impacts of climate changes on road damage. Therefore, several measures to anticipate the damage should be considered during the planning and construction in order to reduce the cost of road maintenance. There are three approaches generally applied in the design of flexible pavement thickness, namely mechanistic approach, mechanistic-empirical (ME) approach and empirical approach. The advantages of applying mechanistic approach or mechanistic-empirical (ME) approaches are its efficiency and reliability in the design of flexible pavement thickness as well as its capacity to accommodate climate changes in compared to empirical approach. However, generally, the design of flexible pavement thickness in Indonesia still applies empirical approach. This preliminary study aimed to emphasize the importance of the shifting towards a mechanistic approach in the design of flexible pavement thickness.

  19. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to

  20. Adaptability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sprague, M.W.

    1991-01-01

    The potential social, economic and environmental impacts of climate change are reviewed, with emphasis on agricultural implications. Impact analyses must be done on the scale of watersheds or river basins. For agriculture, climate change effects on water resources are likely to be more important than temperature changes, and climatic variability is also equally important. Another set of critical climatic variables are the frequencies, magnitudes and timing of extreme events such as floods, droughts, etc. A carbon dioxide enriched atmosphere will increase water use efficiency and confer increased tolerance to drought, salinity and air pollution. Better understanding and accounting is required for the effects of increased carbon dioxide on all plant life, including crops. Adaptability of agriculture to change must be taken into account in predicting impacts of climate change, with technological innovation and infrastructure giving agriculture a dynamic nature. Limitations and adaptations must be considered when formulating public policy, to ensure that marginal costs do not exceed marginal benefits. Monoculture plantation forests may be the most efficient sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide, yet widespread reliance on them may harm biological diversity. Actions the U.S. is currently taking under a no-regrets policy are summarized

  1. Building Systems from Scratch: an Exploratory Study of Students Learning About Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puttick, Gillian; Tucker-Raymond, Eli

    2018-01-01

    Science and computational practices such as modeling and abstraction are critical to understanding the complex systems that are integral to climate science. Given the demonstrated affordances of game design in supporting such practices, we implemented a free 4-day intensive workshop for middle school girls that focused on using the visual programming environment, Scratch, to design games to teach others about climate change. The experience was carefully constructed so that girls of widely differing levels of experience were able to engage in a cycle of game design. This qualitative study aimed to explore the representational choices the girls made as they took up aspects of climate change systems and modeled them in their games. Evidence points to the ways in which designing games about climate science fostered emergent systems thinking and engagement in modeling practices as learners chose what to represent in their games, grappled with the realism of their respective representations, and modeled interactions among systems components. Given the girls' levels of programming skill, parts of systems were more tractable to create than others. The educational purpose of the games was important to the girls' overall design experience, since it influenced their choice of topic, and challenged their emergent understanding of climate change as a systems problem.

  2. Factors influencing smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones: A case study of Hwedza District in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zamasiya, Byron; Nyikahadzoi, Kefasi; Mukamuri, Billy Billiard

    2017-08-01

    This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The reduction method of statistic scale applied to study of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernal Suarez, Nestor Ricardo; Molina Lizcano, Alicia; Martinez Collantes, Jorge; Pabon Jose Daniel

    2000-01-01

    In climate change studies the global circulation models of the atmosphere (GCMAs) enable one to simulate the global climate, with the field variables being represented on a grid points 300 km apart. One particular interest concerns the simulation of possible changes in rainfall and surface air temperature due to an assumed increase of greenhouse gases. However, the models yield the climatic projections on grid points that in most cases do not correspond to the sites of major interest. To achieve local estimates of the climatological variables, methods like the one known as statistical down scaling are applied. In this article we show a case in point by applying canonical correlation analysis (CCA) to the Guajira Region in the northeast of Colombia

  4. Arctic adaptation and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agnew, T.A.; Headley, A.

    1994-01-01

    The amplification of climatic warming in the Arctic and the sensitivity of physical, biological, and human systems to changes in climate make the Arctic particularly vulnerable to climate changes. Large areas of the Arctic permafrost and sea ice are expected to disappear under climate warming and these changes will have considerable impacts on the natural and built environment of the north. A review is presented of some recent studies on what these impacts could be for the permafrost and sea ice environment and to identify linkages with socioeconomic activities. Terrestrial adaptation to climate change will include increases in ground temperature; melting of permafrost with consequences such as frost heave, mudslides, and substantial settlement; rotting of peat contained in permafrost areas, with subsequent emission of CO 2 ; increased risk of forest fire; and flooding of low-lying areas. With regard to the manmade environment, structures that will be affected include buildings, pipelines, highways, airports, mines, and railways. In marine areas, climate change will increase the ice-free period for marine transport operations and thus provide some benefit to the offshore petroleum industry. This benefit will be offset by increased wave height and period, and increased coastal erosion. The offshore industry needs to be particularly concerned with these impacts since the expected design life of industry facilities (30-60 y) is of the same order as the time frame for possible climatic changes. 18 refs., 5 figs

  5. Climate change and apple farming in Indian Himalayas: a study of local perceptions and responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basavaraj Basannagari

    Full Text Available Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (3000 m. At all elevation range the majority of farmers reported that there was increase in atmospheric temperature, and hence at low hills 72% farmers believed that this increase in temperature was responsible for decline in fruit size and so that the quality. Thirty five percent farmers at high hills and 30% at mid hills perceived frost as a major cause for damaging apple farming whereas at low hills 24% farmers perceived hailstorm as the major deterrent for apple farming. The majority of farmers, along the altitude (92% at high hills, 79% at mid hills and 83% at low hills, reported decrease in snowfall. The majority of farmers at low altitude and mid altitude reported decline in apple farming whereas 71% farmers at high hill areas refused decline in apple farming. About 73-83% farmers admitted delay in apple's harvesting period. At mid hills apple scab and at low hills pest attack on apple crops are considered as the indicators of climate change. The change in land use practices was attributed to climate change and in many areas the land under apple farming was replaced for production of coarse grains, seasonal vegetables and other horticulture species. Scientific investigation claiming changes in Indian Himalayan climate corroborates perceptions of farmers, as examined during the present study.

  6. Climate change and apple farming in Indian Himalayas: a study of local perceptions and responses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basannagari, Basavaraj; Kala, Chandra Prakash

    2013-01-01

    Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (3000 m). At all elevation range the majority of farmers reported that there was increase in atmospheric temperature, and hence at low hills 72% farmers believed that this increase in temperature was responsible for decline in fruit size and so that the quality. Thirty five percent farmers at high hills and 30% at mid hills perceived frost as a major cause for damaging apple farming whereas at low hills 24% farmers perceived hailstorm as the major deterrent for apple farming. The majority of farmers, along the altitude (92% at high hills, 79% at mid hills and 83% at low hills), reported decrease in snowfall. The majority of farmers at low altitude and mid altitude reported decline in apple farming whereas 71% farmers at high hill areas refused decline in apple farming. About 73-83% farmers admitted delay in apple's harvesting period. At mid hills apple scab and at low hills pest attack on apple crops are considered as the indicators of climate change. The change in land use practices was attributed to climate change and in many areas the land under apple farming was replaced for production of coarse grains, seasonal vegetables and other horticulture species. Scientific investigation claiming changes in Indian Himalayan climate corroborates perceptions of farmers, as examined during the present study.

  7. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  8. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miaomiao Liu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn’t been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763 from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health, psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high–tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use and one adaption policy (increasing resilience brought positive co–benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered.

  9. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L; Sabel, Clive E

    2016-03-21

    As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn't been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high-tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co-benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered.

  10. Strategic Planning for Land Use under Extreme Climate Changes: A Case Study in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Cheng Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather caused by global climate change affects slope-land in Taiwan, causing soil loss, floods, and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked second highest worldwide. With three-fourths of the island area being slope-land, soil and water conservation (SWC is crucial. Therefore, because of the impact of climate and social change, the means of maintaining sustainable development of slope-land and the safety of the living environment in Taiwan is a developing and crucial issue. This study applied four foresight analysis tools that covered both qualitative and quantitative aspects, including international trend analysis, a focus group, the Delphi method, and a strategy roadmap. By combining the four analysis tools, we developed corresponding strategies to address climate change for use as references for policy-makers. The findings of this study can contribute to consensus-forming among multiple stakeholders on the sustainable development of soil and water resources and to devising foresight strategies for SWC in short-term, middle-term, and long-term bases. Ultimately, the goal of “considering climate and socioeconomic change, watershed resources being managed on a multiple-use basis to avoid disasters and to sustain SWC” can be realized by the year 2025.

  11. Natural and anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, M.K.W.; Clough, S.A.; Molnar, G.I.; Iacono, M.; Wang, W.C.; State Univ. of New York, Albany, NY

    1992-03-01

    This report consists of two parts: (1) progress for the period 9/1/91--3/31/92 and (2) the plan for the remaining period 4/1/92--8/31/92. The project includes two tasks: atmospheric radiation and improvement of climate models to evaluate the climatic effects of radiation changes. The atmospheric radiation task includes four subtasks: (1) Intercomparison of Radiation Codes in Climate Models (ICRCCM), (2) analysis of the water vapor continuum using line-by-line calculations to develop a parameterization for use in climate models, (3) parameterization of longwave radiation and (4) climate/radiation interactions of desert aerosols. Our effort in this period is focused on the first three subtasks. The improvement of climate models to evaluate the subtasks: (1) general circulation model study and (2) 2- D model development and application

  12. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bertelsmeier, C.

    2011-01-01

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  13. Climate Change Portal - Home Page

    Science.gov (United States)

    Science Partnerships Contact Us Take Action Climate change is already having significant and widespread of climate change. Business Businesses throughout California are taking action to address climate climate change impacts and informing policies to reduce greenhouse gases, adapt to changing environments

  14. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  15. Forest and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-01-01

    After having recalled the challenges the French forest has to face, and a brief overview of the status of forests in the world, this report proposes an overview of actions which are implemented to strengthen the carbon sequestration role of forests, at the international level and in France. It discusses the distribution of carbon, the forest carbon stocks (in the world, Europe and France), the actions against climate change, the costs and financing of the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the forest sector. It comments the status of international negotiations and how forests are taken into account. It presents the French forest and wood sector (characteristics of the forest in metropolitan France and overseas, wood as material and as energy). It recalls the commitment of the Grenelle de l'Environnement, and indicates the current forest studies

  16. Competitiveness and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, R.

    2006-01-01

    The author addresses the relationship between competitiveness and climate policy beyond the issue of emission quota trading, and with taking into account links between different activities. For some sectors, demand may depend on measures undertaken to reduce emissions in the transport and building sectors. According to the author, these interactions could transform the industry on a middle term, more than the required technical changes aimed at the reduction of emissions. After a detailed analysis on these issues, this paper discusses the results of several studies dealing with the relationship between environmental regulation and competitiveness, and with global assessments of carbon leakages. Then, the author discusses the European directive which introduces the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS)

  17. Climate change and water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Younos, Tamim; Grady, Caitlin A.

    2013-01-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  18. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  19. Climatic change. What solutions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieillefosse, A.

    2009-01-01

    From 1990 to the present day, worldwide greenhouse gas emissions have increased by about 25%. Fighting climatic change has become an urgency: we only have 15 years in front of us to inflect the trajectory of worldwide emissions and to avoid a temperature rise of more than 2 deg. C during this century. Therefore, how is it possible to explain the shift between the need of an urgent action and the apparent inertia of some governing parties? How is it possible to implement a worldwide governance capable to answer the urgency of the fight against climatic change? These are the two questions that this pedagogical and concrete book tries to answer by analysing the different dimensions of climatic change and by making a first status of the building up of the international action, and in particular of the Kyoto protocol. For the post-2012 era, research and negotiations are in progress with the objective of reaching an agreement for the Copenhagen conference of December 2009. Several architectures are possible. This book shades light on the advantages and limitations of each of them with the possible compromises. It supplies a pluri-disciplinary approach of the international negotiations, often considered as complex by the general public. Content: 1 - understanding the climatic change stakes: climatic stakes, the main actors behind the figures, the technical-economical stakes; 2 - understanding the present day architecture of the fight against climatic change: strengths and weaknesses of the Kyoto protocol; encouraging research and technology spreading; the other action means in developing countries; 3 - what structure for a future international agreement?: the Bali negotiation process; the ideal vision: an improved Kyoto protocol; the pragmatic vision: individualized commitments; the negotiation space; preventing a planned fiasco. (J.S.)

  20. Climate change and amphibians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corn, P.S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  1. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  2. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  3. Making the links: do we connect climate change with health? A qualitative case study from Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Cardwell, Francesca S; Elliott, Susan J

    2013-01-01

    Background Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Typically framed as an environmental issue, some suggest this view has contributed to public ambivalence and hence a lack of public engagement. The lack of understanding of climate change as a significant environmental health risk on the part of the lay public represents a significant barrier to behaviour change. We therefore need to think about reframing the impact of climate change from an ...

  4. Technology and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, R.; Layzell, D.; McLean, G.

    2001-01-01

    This paper provides a context for assessing the needs for technologies to reduce the concentration of GHG in the atmosphere. It looks at sources, sinks and trends for GHG, in the world at large and in Canada, and at efforts to develop new technologies to achieve the goals of climate change policy. Technology development is one of many approaches to reducing emissions and absorbing GHG from the atmosphere. New technologies will be more successful if they can also achieve non-climate goals, such as better air quality or reduced soil erosion. This paper examines sectors where new technology may be most needed. In general these will be areas where emissions are large, or growing rapidly, or both. It focuses on transport, electricity and biomass as sectors of interest, both because of their potential for contributing to climate change policy goals within Canada, and also because of the author's own research interests. (author)

  5. Co-evolutionary organisational response development model (CORD): a case study of an Australian energy company climate change responses

    OpenAIRE

    Mishra, Kirti

    2016-01-01

    The thesis reports an investigation of the effects of the complex, evolving relationships between organisations and their environments. This examination is a case study of the responses of an Australian energy company to effects of climate change, and aims to enhance understanding of how organisational responses to climate change develop and evolve over time.    The impact of climate change on the contemporary organisational environment has multiple aspects – natural, ec...

  6. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the

  7. CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Cathy Egan

    resources to cope with climate change impacts such as desertification, soil erosion, and ... By 2050, per capita availability of water is predicted to fall by 50% in the ... release methane, a greenhouse gas, ... and on flood plains in Nepal and India is the thrust of collaborative research ... resilience of agricultural systems.

  8. Climate change and schools

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sheffield, Perry E.; Uijttewaal, Simone A.M.; Stewart, James; Galvez, Maida P.

    2017-01-01

    The changing climate is creating additional challenges in maintaining a healthy school environment in the United States (US) where over 50 million people, mostly children, spend approximately a third of their waking hours. Chronic low prioritization of funds and resources to support environmental

  9. Climate change reference guide

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    At the heart of climate change is the greenhouse effect, in which molecules of various gases trap heat in Earths atmosphere and keep it warm enough to support life. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are an important part of Ea...

  10. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  11. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fischer, G.; Shah, M.; Van Velthuizen, H.

    2002-08-01

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  12. Adapting to climate variability and change in Ontario : volume 4 of the Canada country study : climate impacts and adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, J.; Lavender, B. [Smith and Lavender Envrironmental Consultants, ON (Canada); Auld, H.; Broadhurst, D.; Bullock, T. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Ontario Region

    1998-03-01

    An assessment of how climate change will affect Ontario over the next century, including its social, biological and economic environment, is presented. The most significant impacts are expected to result from changes in precipitation patterns, in soil moisture, and in greater intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. Some of the major impacts of changing climate discussed in this volume include: (1) more pollution episodes, (2) increased heat stress, (3) lowering of average water levels of the Great Lakes, (4) changes in the hydrologic cycle which could result in variability of water supply for hydroelectric power production, (5) warming waters of the Great Lakes which could cause fish species to shift northward, (6) cool temperate, moderate temperate and grassland regions could expand northwards as the boreal forest retreats, (7) longer crop growing seasons, (8) decreased snow loads, and (9) reduced ice on the Great Lakes which would increase the length of the shipping season. The general conclusion is that adapting to changing climate will require a knowledge of how climate changes occur and how the changes are likely to affect the environment, society and economy. Changes in other key variables such as technology, personal preferences and social values will also influence the rate of climate change and Ontario`s ability to adapt to it. refs., tabs., figs.

  13. Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisner, Courtney P.; Wood, Joshua C.; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S.; Robin Buell, C.; Winkler, Julie A.

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

  14. Electricity supply options, sustainable development and climate change priorities. Case studies for South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, H.; Mukheibir, P.; Mwakasonda, S.; Garg, A.; Halsnaes, K.

    2007-09-01

    This report summarizes the results of the project Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing economies, which has been managed by UNEP Risoe Centre on behalf of UNEP DTIE. The report argues that starting from development objectives is critical to mitigation efforts in developing countries. Instead of defining local benefits as ancillary to mitigation, reductions of GHG emissions should be seen as the co-benefits of policies that drive local sustainable development. A development-focused approach seems more likely to be implemented than the imposition of GHG targets by the international community - especially as South Africa has adopted development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and promoted the Johannesburg Plan of Action. The case studies presented take as their starting point development objectives, rather than climate change targets. The form of climate action which it investigates is sustainable development policies and measures. (BA)

  15. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boucher, Olivier; Dufresne, Jean-Louis; Vial, Jessica; Brun, Eric; Cattiaux, Julien; Chauvin, Fabrice; Salas y Melia, David; Voldoire, Aurore; Bopp, Laurent; Braconnot, Pascale; Ciais, Philippe; Yiou, Pascal; Guilyardi, Eric; Mignot, Juliette; Guivarch, Celine

    2015-01-01

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  16. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    alireza kochaki; mehdi nasiry; gholamali kamali

    2009-01-01

    Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the e...

  17. Climate changes over the past millennium: Relationships with Mediterranean climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mann, M.E.

    2006-01-01

    Evidence is reviewed for climate change and its causes over the interval spanning roughly the past millennium. Particular emphasis is placed on patterns of climate change influencing Mediterranean climates of the Northern Hemisphere. The evidence is taken from studies using high-resolution climate proxy data sources, and climate modeling simulations. The available evidence suggests that forced changes in dynamical modes of variability including the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have played a key role in the patterns of climate variability in Mediterranean regions over the past millennium

  18. Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

    2016-02-01

    Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures

  19. Assessing and Upgrading Ocean Mixing for the Study of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Fells, J.; Lindo, F.; Tulsee, V.; Canuto, V.; Cheng, Y.; Dubovikov, M. S.; Leboissetier, A.

    2016-12-01

    Climate is critical. Climate variability affects us all; Climate Change is a burning issue. Droughts, floods, other extreme events, and Global Warming's effects on these and problems such as sea-level rise and ecosystem disruption threaten lives. Citizens must be informed to make decisions concerning climate such as "business as usual" vs. mitigating emissions to keep warming within bounds. Medgar Evers undergraduates aid NASA research while learning climate science and developing computer&math skills. To make useful predictions we must realistically model each component of the climate system, including the ocean, whose critical role includes transporting&storing heat and dissolved CO2. We need physically based parameterizations of key ocean processes that can't be put explicitly in a global climate model, e.g. vertical&lateral mixing. The NASA-GISS turbulence group uses theory to model mixing including: 1) a comprehensive scheme for small scale vertical mixing, including convection&shear, internal waves & double-diffusion, and bottom tides 2) a new parameterization for the lateral&vertical mixing by mesoscale eddies. For better understanding we write our own programs. To assess the modelling MATLAB programs visualize and calculate statistics, including means, standard deviations and correlations, on NASA-GISS OGCM output with different mixing schemes and help us study drift from observations. We also try to upgrade the schemes, e.g. the bottom tidal mixing parameterizations' roughness, calculated from high resolution topographic data using Gaussian weighting functions with cut-offs. We study the effects of their parameters to improve them. A FORTRAN program extracts topography data subsets of manageable size for a MATLAB program, tested on idealized cases, to visualize&calculate roughness on. Students are introduced to modeling a complex system, gain a deeper appreciation of climate science, programming skills and familiarity with MATLAB, while furthering climate

  20. Challenging claims in the study of migratory birds and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knudsen, Endre; Linden, Andreas; Both, Christiaan; Jonzen, Niclas; Pulido, Francisco; Saino, Nicola; Sutherland, William J.; Bach, Lars A.; Coppack, Timothy; Ergon, Torbjorn; Gienapp, Phillip; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gordo, Oscar; Hedenstrom, Anders; Lehikoinen, Esa; Marra, Peter P.; Moller, Anders P.; Nilsson, Anna L. K.; Peron, Guillaume; Ranta, Esa; Rubolini, Diego; Sparks, Tim H.; Spina, Fernando; Studds, Colin E.; Saether, Stein A.; Tryjanowski, Piotr; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Ergon, Torbjørn; Hedenström, Anders; Møller, Anders P.

    2011-01-01

    Recent shifts in phenology in response to climate change are well established but often poorly understood. Many animals integrate climate change across a spatially and temporally dispersed annual life cycle, and effects are modulated by ecological interactions, evolutionary change and endogenous

  1. Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: a case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenni, K.; Graves, D.; Hardiman, Jill M.; Hatten, James R.; Mastin, Mark C.; Mesa, Matthew G.; Montag, J.; Nieman, Timothy; Voss, Frank D.; Maule, Alec G.

    2014-01-01

    Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

  2. Integrated regional assessment of global climatic change. Lessons from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Stewart J.

    1996-01-01

    This paper outlines the potential role integrated regional assessments of global climatic change scenarios could play in building better links between science and related policy concerns. The concept is illustrated through description of an ongoing case study from Canada-the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS). As part of the Government of Canada's Green Plan, the Global Warming Science Program includes a study of regional impacts of global warming scenarios in the Mackenzie Basin, located in northwestern Canada. The MBIS is a six-year program focussing on potential climate-induced changes in the land and water resource base, and the implications of four scenarios of global climatic change on land use and economic policies in this region. These policy issues include interjurisdictional water management, sustainability of native lifestyles, economic development opportunities (agriculture, forestry, tourism, etc.), sustainability of ecosystems and infrastructure maintenance. MBIS is due to be completed in 1997. MBIS represents an attempt to address regional impacts by incorporating a 'family of integrators' into the study framework, and by directly involving stakeholders in planning and research activities. The experience in organizing and carrying out this project may provide some lessons for others interested in organizing regional or country studies

  3. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  4. Climate change and coasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schellnhuber, H.J.; Sterr, H.

    1993-01-01

    The investigation of climatic processes and behaviour examines the effects of climatic changes on human beings and the surrounding environment. The authors discuss, in a wide-subject perspective, the regional impacts of the greenhouse effect, increase of the sea level, and changed conditions of both precipitation and wind using the North and Baltic Sea as examples. In this effort, questions dealing with changes of water level, motion and (disturbance) of the sea and morphodynamic in the coastal apron, in reference to requirements on a future protection of the shore, are handled. In addition, not only the aspects of ecosystem-orientated adaption in the strip of land between the continent northern islands 'Wattenmeer' and ground landscape (Bodenlandschaft) are taken into consideration, but also the impact of these on human beings and their interest to use the coastal regions. (orig.). 102 figs., 9 tabs [de

  5. Applicability of ranked Regional Climate Models (RCM) to assess the impact of climate change on Ganges: A case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Jatin; Devak, Manjula; Gosain, Ashvani Kumar; Khosa, Rakesh; Dhanya, Ct

    2017-04-01

    The negative impact of climate change is felt over wide range of spatial scales, ranging from small basins to large watershed area, which can possibly outweighs the benefits of natural water system. General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been widely used as an input to a hydrological models (HMs), to simulate different hydrological components of a river basin. However, the coarser scale of GCMs and spatio-temporal biases, restricted its use at finer resolution. If downscaled, adds one more level of uncertainty i.e., downscaling uncertainty together with model and scenario uncertainty. The outputs computed from Regional Climate Models (RCM) may aid the uncertainties arising from GCMs, as the RCMs are the miniatures of GCMs. However, the RCMs do have some inherent systematic biases, hence bias correction is a prerequisite process before it is fed to HMs. RCMs, together with the input from GCMs at later boundaries also takes topography of the area into account. Hence, RCMs need to be ranked a priori. In this study, impact of climate change on the Ganga basin, India, is assessed using the ranked RCMs. Firstly, bias correction of 14 RCM models are done using Quantile-Quantile mapping and Equidistant cumulative distribution method, for historic (1990-2004) and future scenario (2021-2100), respectively. The runoff simulations from Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for historic scenario is used for ranking of RCMs. Entropy and PROMETHEE-2 method is employed to rank the RCMs based on five performance indicators namely, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R2), normalised root mean square error (NRMSE), absolute normalised mean bias error (ANMBE) and average absolute relative error (AARE). The results illustrated that each of the performance indicators behaves differently for different RCMs. RCA 4 (CNRM-CERFACS) is found as the best model with the highest value of  (0.85), followed by RCA4 (MIROC) and RCA4 (ICHEC) with  values of 0.80 and 0

  6. Polish country study to address climate change: Strategies of the GHG`s emission reduction and adaptation of the Polish economy to the changed climate. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    The Polish Country Study Project was initiated in 1992 as a result of the US Country Study Initiative whose objective was to grant the countries -- signatories of the United Nations` Framework Convention on Climate Change -- assistance that will allow them to fulfill their obligations in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG`s) inventory, preparation of strategies for the reduction of their emission, and adapting their economies to the changed climatic conditions. In February 1993, in reply to the offer from the United States Government, the Polish Government expressed interest in participation in this program. The Study proposal, prepared by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Natural Resources and Forestry was presented to the US partner. The program proposal assumed implementation of sixteen elements of the study, encompassing elaboration of scenarios for the strategy of mission reduction in energy sector, industry, municipal management, road transport, forestry, and agriculture, as well as adaptations to be introduced in agriculture, forestry, water management, and coastal management. The entire concept was incorporated in macroeconomic strategy scenarios. A complementary element was the elaboration of a proposal for economic and legal instruments to implement the proposed strategies. An additional element was proposed, namely the preparation of a scenario of adapting the society to the expected climate changes.

  7. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engels Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

  8. Modelling the Effects of Land-Use Changes on Climate: a Case Study on Yamula DAM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köylü, Ü.; Geymen, A.

    2016-10-01

    Dams block flow of rivers and cause artificial water reservoirs which affect the climate and the land use characteristics of the river basin. In this research, the effect of the huge water body obtained by Yamula Dam in Kızılırmak Basin is analysed over surrounding spatial's land use and climate change. Mann Kendal non-parametrical statistical test, Theil&Sen Slope method, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) methods are integrated for spatial and temporal analysis of the research area. For this research humidity, temperature, wind speed, precipitation observations which are collected in 16 weather stations nearby Kızılırmak Basin are analyzed. After that these statistical information is combined by GIS data over years. An application is developed for GIS analysis in Python Programming Language and integrated with ArcGIS software. Statistical analysis calculated in the R Project for Statistical Computing and integrated with developed application. According to the statistical analysis of extracted time series of meteorological parameters, statistical significant spatiotemporal trends are observed for climate change and land use characteristics. In this study, we indicated the effect of big dams in local climate on semi-arid Yamula Dam.

  9. Adaptation Strategies of Wheat to Climate Change (Case Study: Ahvaz Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Delghandi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction In recent years human activities induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2. Increases in [CO2] caused global warming and Climate change. Climate change is anticipated to cause negative and adverse impacts on agricultural systems throughout the world. Higher temperatures are expected to lead to a host of problems. On the other hand, increasing of [CO2] anticipated causing positive impacts on crop yield. Considering the socio-economic importance of agriculture for food security, it is essential to undertake assessments of how future climate change could affect crop yields, so as to provide necessary information to implement appropriate adaptation strategies. In this perspective, the aim of this study was to assess potential climate change impacts and on production for one of the most important varieties of wheat (chamran in Khouzestan plain and provide directions for possible adaptation strategies. Materials and Methods: For this study, The Ahvaz region located in the Khuzestan province of Iran was selected. Ahvaz has a desert climate with long, very hot summers and mild, short winters. At first, thirteen GCM models and two greenhouse gases emission (GHG scenarios (A2 and B1 was selected for determination of climate change scenarios. ∆P and ∆T parameters at monthly scale were calculated for each GCM model under each GHG emissions scenario by following equation: Where ∆P, ∆T are long term (thirty years precipitation and temperature differences between baseline and future period, respectively. average future GCM temperature (2015-2044 for each month, , average baseline period GCM temperature (1971-2000 for each month, , average future GCM precipitation for each month, , average baseline period GCM temperature (1971-2000 for each month and i is index of month. Using calculated ∆Ps for each month via AOGCM models and Beta distribution, Cumulative probability distribution function (CDF determined for generated ∆Ps.

  10. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

  11. Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.

    2012-12-01

    Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban

  12. Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Micotti

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

  13. Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Micotti, M.; Soncini Sessa, R.; Weber, E.

    2014-09-01

    Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense) regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

  14. Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. W. Jewitt

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. Further difficulties in assessing these interactions are that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof, needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid, sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model can be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows

  15. Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warburton, M. L.; Schulze, R. E.; Jewitt, G. P. W.

    2010-12-01

    The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. Further difficulties in assessing these interactions are that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof, needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid, sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model can be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows of the three selected

  16. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...

  17. Reframing climate change as a public health issue: an exploratory study of public reactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baldwin Paula

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climate change is taking a toll on human health, and some leaders in the public health community have urged their colleagues to give voice to its health implications. Previous research has shown that Americans are only dimly aware of the health implications of climate change, yet the literature on issue framing suggests that providing a novel frame - such as human health - may be potentially useful in enhancing public engagement. We conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people's reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change. Methods U.S. adult respondents (n = 70, stratified by six previously identified audience segments, read the essay and were asked to highlight in green or pink any portions of the essay they found "especially clear and helpful" or alternatively "especially confusing or unhelpful." Two dependent measures were created: a composite sentence-specific score based on reactions to all 18 sentences in the essay; and respondents' general reactions to the essay that were coded for valence (positive, neutral, or negative. We tested the hypothesis that five of the six audience segments would respond positively to the essay on both dependent measures. Results There was clear evidence that two of the five segments responded positively to the public health essay, and mixed evidence that two other responded positively. There was limited evidence that the fifth segment responded positively. Post-hoc analysis showed that five of the six segments responded more positively to information about the health benefits associated with mitigation-related policy actions than to information about the health risks of climate change. Conclusions Presentations about climate change that encourage people to consider its human health relevance appear likely to provide many Americans with a useful and engaging new frame of reference. Information about the potential health benefits of specific mitigation

  18. Reframing climate change as a public health issue: an exploratory study of public reactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maibach, Edward W; Nisbet, Matthew; Baldwin, Paula; Akerlof, Karen; Diao, Guoqing

    2010-06-01

    Climate change is taking a toll on human health, and some leaders in the public health community have urged their colleagues to give voice to its health implications. Previous research has shown that Americans are only dimly aware of the health implications of climate change, yet the literature on issue framing suggests that providing a novel frame--such as human health--may be potentially useful in enhancing public engagement. We conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people's reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change. U.S. adult respondents (n = 70), stratified by six previously identified audience segments, read the essay and were asked to highlight in green or pink any portions of the essay they found "especially clear and helpful" or alternatively "especially confusing or unhelpful." Two dependent measures were created: a composite sentence-specific score based on reactions to all 18 sentences in the essay; and respondents' general reactions to the essay that were coded for valence (positive, neutral, or negative). We tested the hypothesis that five of the six audience segments would respond positively to the essay on both dependent measures. There was clear evidence that two of the five segments responded positively to the public health essay, and mixed evidence that two other responded positively. There was limited evidence that the fifth segment responded positively. Post-hoc analysis showed that five of the six segments responded more positively to information about the health benefits associated with mitigation-related policy actions than to information about the health risks of climate change. Presentations about climate change that encourage people to consider its human health relevance appear likely to provide many Americans with a useful and engaging new frame of reference. Information about the potential health benefits of specific mitigation-related policy actions appears to be particularly compelling. We

  19. A Study of Rural Senegalese Attitudes and Perceptions of Their Behavior to Changes in the Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieye, Amadou M.; Roy, D. P.

    2012-11-01

    Semi-structured focus group discussions were employed to capture rural Senegalese attitudes and perceptions of their behavior to changes in the climate and their land use and livelihood strategies. Seven focus groups stratified by gender, ethnicity (Wolof and Peulh) and dominant production system (cultivators and pastoralists) in five villages in semi-arid northern Senegal revealed seven main themes. Rural livelihoods remain predominantly based on rainfall dependant practices, and although cultivators and pastoralists had a clear appreciation of changes in natural resources compared to a perceived more favorable past, few adaptive coping strategies beyond established ones were advocated. The seven themes are discussed in detail and their implications for rural livelihoods under future long term climate predictions discussed with the implications of this study for the development of scenarios of future land cover land use.

  20. Portfolio of recent climate change studies utilizing AMS at ANTARES, ANSTO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Child, D.; Smith, A.; Fink, D.; Hua, Q.; Elliot, G.; Williams, A.; Jacobsen, G.

    2002-01-01

    The application of Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) to the measurement of the radionuclides 14 C, 10 Be, 26 Al and 36 Cl has dramatically increased our understanding of factors that affect climate and has led to a greater understanding of natural processes. Using the ANTARES AMS facility at ANSTO we are able to analyse samples containing as few as 10 5 atoms of these radionuclides. Cosmogenic radionuclides produced by the interaction of cosmic rays with the upper atmosphere and exposed surface rocks are stored in natural archives. By measuring small variations in the concentrations of these isotopes over time, information can be inferred about the systems governing these changes. Over the last four years we have undertaken a broad range of climate change and environmental studies, based on the ultra-sensitive technique of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Some specific examples of projects investigating the ice sheet at Law Dome, Antarctica and minerals extracted from geological surface formations will be given

  1. Global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gugele, B.; Radunsky, K.; Spangl, W.

    2002-01-01

    In the last decade marked changes of climatic factors have been observed, such as increases in average global earth temperatures, the amount of precipitation and the number of extreme weather events. Green house gases influence the energy flow in the atmosphere by absorbing infra-red radiation. An overview of the Austrian greenhouse gas emissions is given, including statistical data and their major sources. In 1999 the emissions of all six Kyoto greenhouse gases ( CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O, HFC s , PFC s and SF 6 ) amounted to 79.2 million tonnes of CO 2 equivalents . A comparison between the EC Members states is also presented. Finally the climate change strategy prepared by the Austrian Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry, Environment and Water Management together with other ministries and the federal provinces is discussed, which main aim is to lead to an annual emission reduction of 16 million tonnes of CO 2 . Figs. 2, Tables 1. (nevyjel)

  2. Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, D.

    2012-12-01

    This case study of climate change communications assesses the salient means of communication and the message adopted by regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast. Realizing that cultural factors and local values (and not simply knowledge) are significant influences in explaining attitudes towards climate change, this analysis draws from the records of regional weather, from scientists with a specific focus on the region, from the political decision makers for that region, and the media message reaching the decision makers, ensuring all elements of the analysis are drawn from the same socioeconomic, geophysical, political and cultural context. This is important as the social dynamics surrounding the trust in science is of critical importance and, as such, all elements of the case study are specifically contained within a common context. If the utility of climate change knowledge is to prompt well conceived adaptation/mitigation strategies then the political decision process, or at least the perceptions shaping it, can best be understood by locating it within the world view of the decision makers involved in the production process. Using the results of two survey questionnaires, one of regional climate scientists and one of regional political decision makers, ten years of local weather records, and a summary of the message from mass media circulation, the discord in perceptions of regional climate change are quantitatively explored. The conclusions drawn from the analysis include, compared to the scientific assessment: The decision makers' perceptions of recent past differ from actual observations. The decision makers' perceptions of the future differ from scientific assessments. The decision makers tend to over estimate the magnitude of regional climate change and its impacts. The decision makers tend to over estimate the sense of immediacy for adaptation measures. The conclusions drawn suggest that in the regional political realm, it is often a

  3. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

  4. Climate change and amphibians

    OpenAIRE

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines i...

  5. Climate Change Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass R.; Posner, Eric A.

    2007-01-01

    Greenhouse gas reductions would cost some nations much more than others and benefit some nations far less than others. Significant reductions would impose especially large costs on the United States, and recent projections suggest that the United States has relatively less to lose from climate change. In these circumstances, what does justice require the United States to do? Many people believe that the United States is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions beyond the point that is ...

  6. Climate Change Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Toman, Michael; Shogren, Jason

    2000-01-01

    Having risen from relative obscurity as few as ten years ago, climate change now looms large among environmental policy issues. Its scope is global; the potential environmental and economic impacts are ubiquitous; the potential restrictions on human choices touch the most basic goals of people in all nations; and the sheer scope of the potential response—a significant shift away from using fossil fuels as the primary energy source in the modern economy—is daunting. In this paper, we explore t...

  7. Recent climate change affecting rainstorm occurrences: a case study in East China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Domroes

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to investigate the occurrences of rainstorms and their relationship with the climate change scenario. The study period under investigation refers to the period of greatest recent warming between 1976–2000 whereas the study area covers China east of 105 E longitude. This region is commonly considered to be controlled by the monsoon type of climate over East Asia.

    Positive (increasing trends of rainstorm occurrences, both in annual and summer respects, have been shown for subtropical China whereas a non-uniform picture is associated with temperate China. The increase of rainstorms in subtropical China corresponds with an increasing trend of precipitation. At the same time, subtropical China experiences a mostly decreasing recent temperature change. No clear evidence could, however, be proved for a direct linkage between increasing temperatures and greater rainstorm occurrences. Within the climate change scenario a great risk of rainstorm occurrences must be regarded as part of the increasing risk of extreme weather events.

    Rainstorm occurrences are of a great practical importance as they increase the risk for environmental hazards such as landslides, landslips and floods. Landuse planners must therefore pay a great attention to an increasing number of rainstorms and their adverse risk impact on the environment.

    Such practical aspects need particular attention in subtropical China as the region of largest increase of rainstorm occurrences and where, at the same time, the mountains and hilly landscapes are particularly hazard-prone to landslides and floods.

  8. Summer Season Water Temperature Modeling under the Climate Change: Case Study for Fourchue River, Quebec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaewon Kwak

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available It is accepted that human-induced climate change is unavoidable and it will have effects on physical, chemical, and biological properties of aquatic habitats. This will be especially important for cold water fishes such as trout. The objective of this study is to simulate water temperature for future periods under the climate change situations. Future water temperature in the Fourchue River (St-Alexandre-de-Kamouraska, QC, Canada were simulated by the CEQUEAU hydrological and water temperature model, using meteorological inputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios. The result of the study indicated that water temperature in June will increase 0.2–0.7 °C and that in September, median water temperature could decrease by 0.2–1.1 °C. The rise in summer water temperature may be favorable to brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis growth, but several days over the Upper Incipient Lethal Temperature (UILT are also likely to occur. Therefore, flow regulation procedures, including cold water releases from the Morin dam may have to be considered for the Fourchue River.

  9. Stop the climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tissot, B.

    2003-04-01

    This book tries to answer today's main environmental questions relative to the climatic change: how our massive petroleum and coal consumption has led to a greenhouse effect? What will happen tomorrow when Chinese and Indian people will reach the same energy consumption levels as people of western countries? Is it too late to reverse the trend? If solar energy is the long-term solution, what can we do in the meantime? The author presents the conditions we must fulfill to keep the Earth in a good environmental condition: 1 - a brief story of energy; 2 - the climatic changes and their secrets; 3 - the greenhouse effect: necessary for life but worrying for the future; 4 - the energy demand and the stakes; 2 - fossil fuels: abundance or shortage? 6 - can we fight against greenhouse gases? 7 - the nuclear energy (reactors and wastes management); 8 - the renewable energies: a necessary contribution at the century scale and the unique answer at the millennium scale; 9 - the time of main choices is not so far; 10 - two questions (energy demand and climatic change) and a unique answer (sustainable development). (J.S.)

  10. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  11. Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

  12. The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamilton, Jacqueline; Tol, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more

  13. The emergence of climate change mitigation action by society : An agent-based scenario discovery study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Greeven, Sebastiaan; Kraan, O.D.E.; Chappin, E.J.L.; Kwakkel, J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Developing model-based narratives of society’s response to climate change is challenged by two factors. First, society’s response to possible future climate change is subject to many uncertainties. Second, we argue that society’s mitigation action emerge out of the actions and interactions of the

  14. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Ford; Connie Harrington; Sheel Bansal; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair

    2016-01-01

    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm...

  15. Studying the impact of climate change on coastal aquifers and adjacent wetlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stigter, Tibor; Ribeiro, Luís.; Oliveira, Rodrigo; Samper, Javier; Fakir, Younes; Fonseca, Luís.; Monteiro, José Paulo; Nunes, João. Pedro; Pisani, Bruno

    2010-05-01

    negligible, groundwater recharge is determined by evapotranspiration methods. WP3 involves the monitoring and modeling of groundwater. Water level, electrical conductivity (EC) and temperature measurements are made on a regular basis. At the Portuguese study site, continuous recording of these parameters is performed in the estuary and adjacent aquifer, studying the effect of tidal fluctuations and seasonal variations in recharge and abstractions. Groundwater flow and transport models are created or further developed, integrating the climate scenarios and recharge calculations of WP2, in order to simulate the impact on aquifer hydrodynamics and the movement of the fresh/salt water interface. In WP4 the response of coastal ecosystems to changes in groundwater inputs is assessed with the aid of ecological diversity indices and by using particular taxonomic groups of invertebrates as bioindicators. Mesofauna groups are also characterized in groundwater and their potential as indicators of changes in water composition is assessed. Preliminary results at the Portuguese study site allow understanding that low salinity is apparently relevant for the colonization of the macroinvertebrate species in the groundwater receiving wetland, as the typically estuarine species, which tolerate low salinity, are abundant.

  16. Governing Carbon Mitigation and Climate Change within Local Councils: A Case Study of Adelaide, South Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather Zeppel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available There is growing concern about climate change impacts on local government areas. In Australia, the federal carbon tax (from 1 July 2012 will also increase costs for local councils. This paper evaluates what carbon mitigation (i.e. energy, water, and waste management actions have been implemented by metropolitan Adelaide councils (n=14 and why (or why not. A survey of environmental officers profiled carbon mitigation actions, emissions auditing, and motives for emissions reduction by Adelaide councils. The main reasons for adopting carbon actions were a climate change plan, climate leadership, and cost savings. Internal council governance of climate change actions was also evaluated. A climate governance framework based on adaptive management, communication, and reflective practice (Nursey-Bray 2010 was applied to assess climate mitigation by Adelaide councils.

  17. Linking slope stability and climate change: the Nordfjord region, western Norway, case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasskog, K.; Waldmann, N.; Ariztegui, D.; Simpson, G.; Støren, E.; Chapron, E.; Nesje, A.

    2009-12-01

    Valleys, lakes and fjords are spectacular features of the Norwegian landscape and their sedimentary record recall past climatic, environmental and glacio-isostatic changes since the late glacial. A high resolution multi-proxy study is being performed on three lakes in western Norway combining different geophysical methods and sediment coring with the aim of reconstructing paleoclimate and to investigate how the frequency of hazardous events in this area has changed through time. A very high resolution reflection seismic profiling revealed a series of mass-wasting deposits. These events, which have also been studied in radiocarbon-dated cores, suggest a changing impact of slope instability on lake sedimentation since the late glacial. A specially tailored physically-based mathematical model allowed a numerical simulation of one of these mass wasting events and related tsunami, which occurred during a devastating rock avalanche in 1936 killing 74 persons. The outcome has been further validated against historical, marine and terrestrial information, providing a model that can be applied to comparable basins at various temporal and geographical scales. Detailed sedimentological and geochemical studies of selected cores allows characterizing the sedimentary record and to disentangle each mass wasting event. This combination of seismic, sedimentary and geophysical data permits to extend the record of mass wasting events beyond historical times. The geophysical and coring data retrieved from these lakes is a unique trace of paleo-slope stability generated by isostatic rebound and climate change, thus providing a continuous archive of slope stability beyond the historical record. The results of this study provide valuable information about the impact of climate change on slope stability and source-to-sink processes.

  18. The neurobiology of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-01-06

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  19. The neurobiology of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Sean

    2018-02-01

    Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

  20. Climate change and skin disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundgren, Ashley D

    2018-04-01

    Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.

  1. Market strategies for climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J.M.

    2004-01-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still

  2. Climate Change and Forests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Omenda, T.O

    1997-01-01

    The causes for climatic change in the period between 3000 and 1250 BC was different from what present scenario portends. After industrialization, temperatures has arisen by 0.5 degrees centigrade every 100 years since factories started to spew out smoke. Over the last two centuries, the concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere has increased by more than 25% from about 275ppm in the 18th Century to more than 350ppm at the present time while the current level is expected to double by the year 2050. The increase in Carbon Dioxide and together with other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will trap the sun's radiation causing the mean global temperatures to rise by between 1 degree and 5 degrees centigrade by 2050. The climatic change affects forestry in many ways for instance, temperatures determines the rate at which enzymes catalyze biochemical reactions while solar radiation provide the energy which drive light reactions in photosynthesis. On the other hand, water which is a component of climate is a universal solvent which enables plants to transport nutrients through the transpirational stream, and similarly transport photosynthates from the leave to all parts of the plants. It is a raw material for photosynthesis and important for maintaining turgidity, which is important for growth

  3. Global Studies of the Sulfur Cycle Including the Influence of DMS and Fossil Fuel Sulfur on Climate and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Joyce E.

    1998-01-01

    The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols, wherein aerosol particles are thought to increase cloud droplet concentrations and cloud lifetime, is the most uncertain component of climate forcing over the past 100 years. Here, for the first time, we use a mechanistic treatment of droplet nucleation and a prognostic treatment of the number of cloud droplets to study the indirect aerosol effect from changes in carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. Cloud droplet nucleation is parameterized as a function of total aerosol number concentration, updraft velocity and a shape parameter, which takes into account the mechanism, of sulfate aerosol formation, while cloud droplet number depends on the nucleation as well as on droplet sinks. Whereas previous treatments have predicted annual average indirect effects between -1 and -2 W/sq m, we obtain an indirect aerosol effect between -0.14 W/sq m and -0.42 W/sq m in the global mean.

  4. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fantechi, R.; Almeida-Teixeira, M.E.; Maracchi, G.

    1991-01-01

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  5. Climate change and the biosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    F. Stuart Chapin

    2008-01-01

    Scientific assessments now clearly demonstrate the ecologic and societal consequences of human induced climate change, as detailed by the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Global warming spells danger for Earth's biomes, which in turn play an important role in climate change. On the following pages, you will read about some of...

  6. Agriculture and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abelson, P.H.

    1992-01-01

    How will increases in levels of CO 2 and changes in temperature affect food production? A recently issued report analyzes prospects for US agriculture 1990 to 2030. The report, prepared by a distinguished Task Force, first projects the evolution of agriculture assuming increased levels of CO 2 but no climate change. Then it deals with effects of climate change, followed by a discussion of how greenhouse emissions might be diminished by agriculture. Economic and policy matters are also covered. How the climate would respond to more greenhouse gases is uncertain. If temperatures were higher, there would be more evaporation and more precipitation. Where would the rain fall? That is a good question. Weather in a particular locality is not determined by global averages. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s could be repeated at its former site or located in another region such as the present Corn Belt. But depending on the realities at a given place, farmers have demonstrated great flexibility in choosing what they may grow. Their flexibility has been increased by the numerous varieties of seeds of major crops that are now available, each having different characteristics such as drought resistance and temperature tolerance. In past, agriculture has contributed about 5% of US greenhouse gases. Two large components have involved emissions of CO 2 from farm machinery and from oxidation of organic matter in soil due to tillage. Use of diesel fuel and more efficient machinery has reduced emissions from that source by 40%. In some areas changed tillage practices are now responsible for returning carbon to the soil. The report identifies an important potential for diminishing net US emissions of CO 2 by growth and utilization of biomass. Large areas are already available that could be devoted to energy crops

  7. Adapting forest to climate change in drylands: the Portuguese case-study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branquinho, Cristina; Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Kobel, Melanie; Soares, Cristina; Vizinho, André; Serrano, Helena Cristina; Pinho, Pedro

    2017-04-01

    The recent expansion of the semiarid climate to all the region of the south of Portugal and the growing impact of climate change demands local adaptation. The growth of the native forest represents a strategy at the ecosystem level to adapt to climate change since it increases resilience and increases also de delivery of ecosystem services such as the increment of organic matter in the soil, carbon and nitrogen, biodiversity, water infiltration, etc. Moreover, decreases susceptibility to desertification. For that reason, large areas have been reforested in the south of Portugal with the native species holm oak and cork oak but with a low rate of effectiveness. Our goal in this work is to show how the cost-benefit relation of the actions intended to expand the forest of the Portuguese semiarid can be lowered by taking into account the microclimatic conditions and high spatial resolution management. The potential of forest regeneration was modelled at the local and regional level in the semiarid area using information concerning the Potential Solar Radiation. This model gives us the rate of native forest regeneration after a disturbance with high spatial resolution. Based on this model the territory was classified in: i) easy regeneration areas; ii) areas with the need of assisted reforestation, using methods that increase water and soil conservation; iii) areas of difficult reforestation because of the costs. Additionally, a summary of the success of reforestations was made in the historical semiarid since the 60s based on the evaluation of a series of case studies, where we quantified the ecosystem services currently delivered by the reforested ecosystems. We will discuss and propose a strategy for forests to adapt to climate change scenario in dryland Portugal. Acknowledgement: Programa Adapt: financed by EEA Grants and Fundo Português de Carbono and by FCT-MEC project PTDC/AAG-GLO/0045/2014.

  8. Climate Change Studies over Bangalore using Multi-source Remote Sensing Data and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    B, S.; Gouda, K. C.; Laxmikantha, B. P.; Bhat, N.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization is a form of metropolitan growth that is a response to often bewildering sets of economic, social, and political forces and to the physical geography of an area. Some of the causes of the sprawl include - population growth, economy, patterns of infrastructure initiatives like the construction of roads and the provision of infrastructure using public money encouraging development. The direct implication of such urban sprawl is the change in land use and land cover of the region. In this study the long term climate data from multiple sources like NCEP reanalysis, IMD observations and various satellite derived products from MAIRS, IMD, ERSL and TRMM are considered and analyzed using the developed algorithms for the better understanding of the variability in the climate parameters over Bangalore. These products are further mathematically analyzed to arrive at desired results by extracting land surface temperature (LST), Potential evapo-transmission (PET), Rainfall, Humidity etc. Various satellites products are derived from NASA (National Aeronautics Space Agency), Indian meteorological satellites and global satellites are helpful in massive study of urban issues at global and regional scale. Climate change analysis is well studied by using either single source data such as Temperature or Rainfall from IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) or combined data products available as in case of MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Scale) program to get rainfall at regional scale. Finally all the above said parameters are normalized and analyzed with the help of various open source available software's for pre and post processing our requirements to obtain desired results. A sample of analysis i.e. the Inter annual variability of annual averaged Temperature over Bangalore is presented in figure 1, which clearly shows the rising trend of the temperature (0.06oC/year). Also the Land use and land cover (LULC) analysis over Bangalore, Day light hours from

  9. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  10. Pacific Islands Climate Change Virtual Library

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Virtual Library provides access to web based climate variability and climate change information and tools relevant to the Pacific Islands including case studies,...

  11. Enhancing international technology cooperation for climate change mitigation. Lessons from an electromobility case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhasin, Shikha

    2014-07-01

    As a global agreement on climate mitigation and absolute emissions reductions remains grid-locked, this paper assesses whether the prospects for international technology cooperation in low-carbon sectors can be improved. It analyses the case of international cooperation on electric vehicle technologies to elaborate on the trade-offs that cooperation such as this inherently attempts to balance- national growth objectives of industrial and technology development versus the global goods benefit of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It focuses on bilateral German-Chinese programmes for electric vehicle development, as well as multilateral platforms on low-carbon technology cooperation related to electric vehicles. Based on insights from these cases studies, this paper ultimately provides policy recommendations to address gaps in international technology cooperation at a bilateral level for ongoing German-Chinese engagement on electric vehicles; and at a multilateral level with a focus on the emerging technology cooperation framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

  12. Enhancing international technology cooperation for climate change mitigation. Lessons from an electromobility case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhasin, Shikha

    2014-01-01

    As a global agreement on climate mitigation and absolute emissions reductions remains grid-locked, this paper assesses whether the prospects for international technology cooperation in low-carbon sectors can be improved. It analyses the case of international cooperation on electric vehicle technologies to elaborate on the trade-offs that cooperation such as this inherently attempts to balance- national growth objectives of industrial and technology development versus the global goods benefit of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. It focuses on bilateral German-Chinese programmes for electric vehicle development, as well as multilateral platforms on low-carbon technology cooperation related to electric vehicles. Based on insights from these cases studies, this paper ultimately provides policy recommendations to address gaps in international technology cooperation at a bilateral level for ongoing German-Chinese engagement on electric vehicles; and at a multilateral level with a focus on the emerging technology cooperation framework of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

  13. Managing for Climate Change Adaptation in Forests: a Case Study from the U.S. Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerhoulas, L. P.; Kolb, T.; Koch, G. W.; Hurteau, M. D.

    2016-12-01

    Forest mortality related to climate change is an increasingly common global phenomenon. We provide a case study of the U.S. Southwest to investigate the interactions among forest restoration treatments that alter stand density, tree growth, and drought resistance in trees of different size classes. Using cores taken from five positions in large trees (coarse roots, breast height, base of live crown, mid-crown branch, and treetop) and breast height in small trees, we investigated how radial growth response to thinning and precipitation availability varied in 72 ponderosa pines Pinus ponderosa Dougl. in northern Arizona. Ten years after thinning, growth of small trees did not respond significantly to thinning whereas growth of large trees increased following moderate and heaving thinning, and this response was similar across within-tree core sample positions. The intensity of thinning treatment did not significantly affect dry-year growth in small trees. In large trees, dry-year growth after thinning was maintained at pre-thinning levels in moderate and heavy thinning treatments but decreased in the light thinning and control treatments. Our findings indicate that more aggressive thinning treatments used for forest restoration stimulate growth throughout large residual trees from coarse roots to branches and also improve drought resistance, providing a greater resilience to future climate-related stress. These responses to treatment are more pronounced in large trees than small trees. Forest thinning is therefore recommended in systems that are likely to experience increased temperature and decreased precipitation as a result of climate change.

  14. Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change.

    OpenAIRE

    Schiavon, Stefano; Zecchin, Roberto

    2007-01-01

    Politiche, misure e strumenti per contenere le emissioni di CO2 Illustriamo l’ultimo contributo al quarto Rapporto sui cambiamenti climatici votato a maggio 2007 dal terzo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato intergovernativo “Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. Il Rapporto affronta la problematica delle tendenze delle emissioni dei gas serra e il tema della mitigazione a breve e lungo termine. Presentiamo un’analisi critica delle proposte del documento.

  15. Climate change vulnerability map of Southeast Asia

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    anshory

    Development Studies (CEDS), Padjadjaran University, for his excellent research assistance. ... Malaysia, and Philippines) are the most vulnerable to climate change. 2. ... system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes), ... national administrative areas in seven countries in Southeast Asia, i.e., ...

  16. Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Ozone and Intercontinental Ozone Pollution: A Multi-Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, R. M.; Wild, O.; Shindell, D. T.; Zeng, G.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Collins, W. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Dentener, F. J.; Schultz, M. G.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes-(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission-largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.

  17. Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

    2014-01-01

    Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now...... variability in temperature are ecologically important. Embracing complexity in future climate change experiments in general is therefore crucial......., precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies...

  18. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calvo Redondo, A.; Rodriguez Eustaquio, A.; Sanchez y Llorente, J.M.; Luis y Hernandez, S.; Panero Santos, C.; Gomez Cubero, J.A.; Arias-Camison Hernandez, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  19. Energy and climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadena, Angela Ines

    2000-01-01

    Human intervention in the carbon cycle has become a relevant concern in recent times. Global warming is a phenomenon due to the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG-s) carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and chlorofluorocarbons, believed to be irreversible. CO 2 is the most important GHG its contribution to the radioactive forcing of climate is estimated in about 70%. Changes in the global concentration of these gases depend on the level of emissions as a by-product of economic activities, the natural assimilative capacity of the global ecosystem, and the abatement activities. The paper include the Colombian situation

  20. The CC-Bio Project: Studying the Effects of Climate Change on Quebec Biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luc Vescovi

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Anticipating the effects of climate change on biodiversity is now critical for managing wild species and ecosystems. Climate change is a global driver and thus affects biodiversity globally. However, land-use planners and natural resource managers need regional or even local predictions. This provides scientists with formidable challenges given the poor documentation of biodiversity and its complex relationships with climate. We are approaching this problem in Quebec, Canada, through the CC-Bio Project (http://cc‑bio.uqar.ca/, using a boundary organization as a catalyst for team work involving climate modelers, biologists, naturalists, and biodiversity managers. In this paper we present the CC-Bio Project and its general approach, some preliminary results, the emerging hypothesis of the northern biodiversity paradox (a potential increase of biodiversity in northern ecosystems due to climate change, and an early assessment of the conservation implications generated by our team work.

  1. Respondence and feedback of modern sand deserts to climate change--A case study in Gurbantunggut Desert

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The research on the respondence and feedback of modern sand deserts to the climate change is an important component part in the studies on the global climate change. Deserts respond to the climate change, meanwhile, they affect the climate with their feedback of peculiar environment during the respondence. Many researches on desert climate have been carried out at home and abroad. However, there is little research on the respondence and feedback of modern fixed, semi-fixed and mobile deserts in arid areas to the climate change, in which the factor analysis as well as the parameter changing effects is especially the difficult problem all along. In this note, the parameters of the respondence and feedback of Gurbantunggut Desert to the climate change are measured and analyzed, some variable parameters of water-heat exchange are obtained, and a numerical model of desertification is developed according to a series of climate change of about 40 years and the variable relations of meteorological and physical features of the sand surface in Gurbantunggut Desert.

  2. Interdisciplinarity, Climate, and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2016-12-01

    Interdisciplinarity has become synonymous with all things progressive about research and education. This is so not simply because of a philosophical belief in the heterogeneity of knowledge but because of the scientific and social complexities of problems of major concern. The increased demand for improved climate knowledge and information has increased pressure to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence, is well-documented. The application of useful climate data, information and knowledge requires multiple networks and information services infrastructure that support planning and implementation. As widely quoted, Pasteur's quadrant is a label given to a class of scientific research methodologies that seeks fundamental understanding of scientific problems and, simultaneously, to benefit society-what Stokes called "use-inspired research". Innovation, in this context, has been defined as "the process by which individuals and organizations generate new ideas and put them into practice". A growing number of research institutes and programs have begun developing a cadre of professionals focused on integrating basic and applied research in areas such as climate risk assessment and adaptation. There are now several examples of where researchers and teams have crafted examples that include affected communities. In this presentation we will outline the lessons from several efforts including the PACE program, the RISAs, NIDIS, the Climate Services Information System and other interdisciplinary service-oriented efforts in which the author has been involved. Some early lessons include the need to: Recognize that key concerns of social innovation go beyond the projections of climate and other global changes to embrace multiple methods Continue to train scientists of all stripes of disciplinary norms, but higher education should also prepare students who plan to seek careers outside of academia by increasing flexibility in graduate training programs

  3. Making the links: do we connect climate change with health? A qualitative case study from Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardwell, Francesca S; Elliott, Susan J

    2013-03-08

    Climate change has been described as the biggest global health threat of the 21st century. Typically framed as an environmental issue, some suggest this view has contributed to public ambivalence and hence a lack of public engagement. The lack of understanding of climate change as a significant environmental health risk on the part of the lay public represents a significant barrier to behaviour change. We therefore need to think about reframing the impact of climate change from an environmental to a health issue. This paper builds on calls for increased understanding of the public's views of human health risks associated with climate change, focusing on facilitators and barriers to behaviour change. Semi-structured in-depth interviews (n = 22) with residents of the Golden Horseshoe region of Southern Ontario were conducted between August 2010 and January 2011. Topics included individual and community health, climate change, and facilitators and barriers to behaviour change. Few participants recognized the role of the environment in the context of either individual and community health. When asked about health concerns specific to their community, however, environmental issues were mentioned frequently. Health effects as possible impacts of global environmental change were mentioned by 77% of participants when prompted, but this link was not described in great detail or within the context of impacting their communities or themselves. Participants were willing to act in environmentally friendly ways, and possible incentives to undertake behaviour change such as decreasing cost were described. Health co-benefits were not identified as incentives to engaging in mitigative or adaptive behaviours. The results support recent calls for reframing the impact of climate change from an environmental to a public health issue in order to increase public engagement in adaptive and mitigative behaviour change. While previous research has touched on public awareness of the

  4. Biome redistribution under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dominique Bachelet; Ronald P. Neilson

    2000-01-01

    General warming in the Northern Hemisphere has been recorded since the end of the 1800s following the Little Ice Age. Records of glacier retreat during the last 100 years over the entire globe independently confirmed the recorded trend in global temperature rise. Several studies have illustrated various responses to this climate forcing, i.e., the recorded changes in...

  5. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  6. Danish forestry and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larsen, J.B.; Saxe, H.

    2001-01-01

    Results from Danish experimental field and chamber studies indicate that in general the projected climatic changes are likely to promote tree growth especially for those trees, which have their northern limit in southern Scandinavia. The only major species which will experience a setback, is Norway Spruce - unfortunately however so far the most common commercially planted tree in Denmark. (LN)

  7. Climate change issues in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ye Ruqiu (China National Environmental Protection Agency, Beijing (China))

    China is vulnerable to global climate change because of its specific geographical and climatic conditions. Recent climate change trends in China are briefly described. To deal with climate change and reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, a set of strategic measures aimed at harmonizing environmental protection and economic development have been worked out. Special attention has been given to the analysis of problems of energy efficiency and energy structure. Preliminary policy consideration is discussed. 8 refs., 3 tabs.

  8. Climate change issues in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ye Ruqiu

    1994-01-01

    China is vulnerable to global climate change because of its specific geographical and climatic conditions. Recent climate change trends in China are briefly described. To deal with climate change and reduce the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, a set of strategic measures aimed at harmonizing environmental protection and economic development have been worked out. Special attention has been given to the analysis of problems of energy efficiency and energy structure. Preliminary policy consideration is discussed. (author). 8 refs, 3 tabs

  9. Our knowledge on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turkenburg, W.C.; Van Wijk, A.J.M.

    1991-01-01

    A workshop was organised to evaluate and discuss the report 'Scientific Assessment of Climate Change (1990)' of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Thirty prominent Dutch experts in the field attended the workshop. The introductions and discussions held on our knowledge of climatic change as a result of the growth of the greenhouse effect caused by the emission of greenhouse gases from human actions are presented. It is concluded that the IPCC-report shows in a clear and balanced way the certainties and uncertainties in our knowledge of climate change. There is a large chance that the earth's climate will change considerably, if the policy remains unamended. 15 figs., 2 apps

  10. Prospects of tools from differential games in the study of macroeconomics of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engwerda, Jacob; Bernard, L.; Semmler, W.

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter we sketch a dynamic framework within which the discussion on the macro economic effects of climate change take place. The problem setting is characterized by scientific uncertainties about the development of climate, potential large economic losses, and specific characteristics of

  11. Global topics and novel approaches in the study of air pollution, climate change and forest ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    P. Sicard; A. Augustaitis; S. Belyazid; C. Calfapietra; A. De Marco; Mark E. Fenn; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Nancy Grulke; S. He; R. Matyssek; Y. Serengil; G. Wieser; E. Paoletti

    2016-01-01

    Research directions from the 27th conference for Specialists in Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystems (2015) reflect knowledge advancements about (i) Mechanistic bases of tree responses to multiple climate and pollution stressors, in particular the interaction of ozone (O3) with nitrogen (N) deposition and drought; (ii)...

  12. Prospects of Tools from Differential Games in the Study Of Macroeconomics of Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engwerda, J.C.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: In this note we sketch a dynamic framework within which the discussion on the macro economic effects of climate change take place. The problem setting is characterized by scientific uncertainties about the development of climate, potential large economic losses and human beings having

  13. The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

    2000-06-01

    The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

  14. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA Climate Change Initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legeais, Jean-Francois; Cazenave, Anny; Larnicol, Gille

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition...... to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV...... validation, performed by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community. At last, the main improvements derived from the algorithms development dedicated to the 2016 full reprocessing of the dataset are described. Efforts have also focused on the improvement of the sea level estimation...

  15. Effects of Climate Change on Groundwater Recharge (Case Study: Sefid Dasht Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    samin ansari

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Nowadays, the issue of climate change and its related problems are fundamental crisis in water resource management. On the other hand, considering that groundwater is the most important water resources, determination of the effects of climate change on groundwater and estimation the amount of their recharge will be necessary in the future. Materials and Methods: In this research, to analyze the effects of climate change scenarios on groundwater resources, a case study has been applied to the Sefid Dasht Plain located in Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Province in Iran. One of the three Atmospheric-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM which is called HadCM3, under the emission scenarios A2 and B1 is used to predict time series of climate variables of temperature and precipitation in the future. In order to downscale the data for producing the regional climate scenarios, LARS-WG model has been applied. Also, IHACRES model is calibrated and used for simulation of rainfall - runoff with monthly temperature, precipitation and runoff data. The predicted runoff and precipitation production in future have been considered as recharge parameters in the ground water model and the effects of climate change scenarios on the ground water table has been studied. To simulate the aquifer, GMS software has been used. GMS model is calibrated in both steady and unsteady state for one year available data and verification model has been performed by using the calibration parameters for four years. Results and Discussion: Results of T- test shows that LARS-WG model was able to simulate precipitation and temperature selected station appropriately. Calibration of IHACRES model indicated the best performance with τw=6 و f=7.7 and the results shows that IHACRES model simulated minimum amount of runoff appropriately. Although it didn’t simulate the maximum amount of runoff accurately, but its performance and Nash coefficient is acceptable. Results indicate

  16. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Michael; Fuhrer, Jürg; Holzkämper, Annelie

    2018-01-01

    Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler

  17. Changing risk of spring frost damage in grapevines due to climate change? A case study in the Swiss Rhone Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meier, Michael; Fuhrer, Jürg; Holzkämper, Annelie

    2018-06-01

    Late spring frost is a severe risk during early plant development. It may cause important economic damage to grapevine production. In a warming climate, late frost risk either could decline due to the reduction in frost days and an advancement of the last day of frost or increase due to a more pronounced shift forward of the start of the active growing period of the plants. These possibilities were analyzed in a case study for two locations in the lower Swiss Rhone Valley (Sion, Aigle) where viticulture is an important part of agriculture. Twelve phenology models were calibrated for the developmental stage BBCH09 (bud burst) using measured or reconstructed temperature data for two vineyards in Changins (1958 to 2012) and Leytron (1977 to 2014) together with observed phenological data. The day of year (DOY) for BBCH09 was then modelled for the years 1951 to 2050 using the best performing phenology model in combination with ten downscaled and bias-corrected climate scenarios. A 100-day period starting with BBCH09 was defined, during which daily mean and minimum temperatures were used to calculate three frost risk indices in each year. These indices were compared between the periods 1961-1990 (reference) and 2021-2050 (climate change scenario). Based on the average of the ensemble of climate model chains, BBCH09 advanced by 9 (range 7-11) (Aigle) and 7 (range 5-8) (Sion) days between the two time periods, similar to the shift in the last day of frost. The separate results of the different model chains suggest that, in the near future, late spring frost risk may increase or decrease, depending on location and climate change projections. While for the reference, the risk is larger at the warmer site (Sion) compared to that at the cooler site (Aigle), for the period 2021-2050, small shifts in both phenology and occurrence of frost (i.e., days with daily minimum temperature below 0 °C) lead to a small decrease in frost risk at the warmer but an increase at the cooler

  18. A study of climate change and anthropogenic impacts in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wittig, Rüdiger; König, Konstantin; Schmidt, Marco; Szarzynski, Jörg

    2007-05-01

    study region the extent of arable fields and young fallows increased during the last 30 years from 580 km(2) in 1972 to 2870 km(2) in 2001. This means an average land cover conversion rate of 0.9% per year for the 6 departments considered. Change of the distribution of Sahelian and Sudanian species: Several species, mentioned in older literature as strictly Sahelian, today also occur in the Sudanian zone. Parallel to the spread of former strictly Sahelian species into the Sudanian zone, some former Sahelo-Sudanian species have withdrawn from the Sahel. Changes of the life form spectra of the flora: Considering their life form spectra, the flora of heavily grazed and of protected areas in the Sudanian zone show great differences. On areas intensively grazed the percentage of therophytes is evidently higher than on protected areas. Just the opposite is true for the phanerophytes. Their percentage is higher on the protected area than on the grazed zones. At the first glance, it is obvious to link the changes in flora and vegetation with the climate changes that have occurred during the last five decades (decrease of annual precipitation). However, not only climatic conditions have changed, but also population has increased, the percentage of land intensively used for agriculture and pasturing has increased and the time for soil regeneration today is much shorter than it was some decades ago. Thus, the landscape of the Sudanian zone has become a more Sahelian character. A comparison of the flora of an intensively used area of the Sudanian zone with that of a protected area shows a remarkable change in the life form spectra. The spectrum of the intensively used area is almost identical with that of the typical Sahelian flora. This comparison shows that the anthropogenic influence plays a greater role in the sahelisation of the Sudanian zone than the climate change. Climate change and anthropogenic influence both, lead to a sahelisation of landscape and flora. Thus in many

  19. The Ecological consequences of global climate change

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Woodward, F. I

    1992-01-01

    ... & land use - modeling potential responses of vegetation to global climate change - effects of climatic change on population dynamics of crop pests - responses of soils to climate change - predicting...

  20. Evaluation of different downscaling techniques for hydrological climate-change impact studies at the catchment scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teutschbein, Claudia [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Wetterhall, Fredrik [King' s College London, Department of Geography, Strand, London (United Kingdom); Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrkoeping (Sweden); Seibert, Jan [Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm (Sweden); Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala (Sweden); University of Zurich, Department of Geography, Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-11-15

    Hydrological modeling for climate-change impact assessment implies using meteorological variables simulated by global climate models (GCMs). Due to mismatching scales, coarse-resolution GCM output cannot be used directly for hydrological impact studies but rather needs to be downscaled. In this study, we investigated the variability of seasonal streamflow and flood-peak projections caused by the use of three statistical approaches to downscale precipitation from two GCMs for a meso-scale catchment in southeastern Sweden: (1) an analog method (AM), (2) a multi-objective fuzzy-rule-based classification (MOFRBC) and (3) the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). The obtained higher-resolution precipitation values were then used to simulate daily streamflow for a control period (1961-1990) and for two future emission scenarios (2071-2100) with the precipitation-streamflow model HBV. The choice of downscaled precipitation time series had a major impact on the streamflow simulations, which was directly related to the ability of the downscaling approaches to reproduce observed precipitation. Although SDSM was considered to be most suitable for downscaling precipitation in the studied river basin, we highlighted the importance of an ensemble approach. The climate and streamflow change signals indicated that the current flow regime with a snowmelt-driven spring flood in April will likely change to a flow regime that is rather dominated by large winter streamflows. Spring flood events are expected to decrease considerably and occur earlier, whereas autumn flood peaks are projected to increase slightly. The simulations demonstrated that projections of future streamflow regimes are highly variable and can even partly point towards different directions. (orig.)

  1. A study on the utilization of forest policy to review from the aspect of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardhana, I. Putu Gede

    2017-11-01

    The purpose of this study was to review the utilization of forests from the policy aspects of climate change. This was then associated with the implementation of governmental commitment to carry out REDD+ to cope with the impact of climate change and to achieve sustainable development. Firstly, the author studied this problem from data and information about vast forest areas and conservative water areas in Indonesia. According to provincial governments, there have been several decision letters from the Minister of Forestry from different years ranging from 1999-2014. Comparing the forest areas in letters of 2005, 2008, and 2015, it can be suggested that the areas allocated as productive forest exceeded the areas of conserved or protected forest. This indicates that the utilization of forest as a development resource has occurred, and will continue to become an important element in Indonesia. Furthermore, Indonesian forests continue to suffer deforestation and forest degradation. Therefore, the author presented data and information about deforestation and forest degradation that occurred from forest damage and forest fires. Thirdly, the author presented data and information about the deforestation rate from 2000-2014. In 1989, rehabilitation activities were carried out for critical lands, and from 2012-2014, rehabilitation of forest and riverside areas occurred. This research uses descriptive methods with an approximation of legislation and an approach to librarianship. Then, this study is described in a narrative as well as an interpretive style, and compiled in the form of a working paper. From the results of this research, it can be concluded that Indonesian governmental policy regarding forest utilization has wide potential mitigations, and it is absolutely necessary to consistently implement a number of such programs related to climate change.

  2. Living with climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beltzner, K [ed.

    1976-03-01

    The effects of global warming on economies and societies are discussed. The history of past climate changes in North America is summarized, ranging from short period variations to changes over centuries and millenia. To aid in forecasting the effects of future climatic variation, historical episodes that have had well documented socio-economic effects are examined. These episodes include: the variability period of 1895-1905 characterized by cool climate, wet periods in the northwestern great plains, sustained drought in the Pacific northwest, extreme cold in the gulf states, and the Galveston flood; the midwestern drought of 1933-1937, characterized by drought on the great plains, very cold snowy winters, hot summers, and massive soil erosion; 1935-36, characterized by a very cold winter and a very hot summer; the Mexican drought of 1937-45, characterized by recurrent drought in Mexico; the variable period of 1950-1958, characterized by Pacific coast drought, drought and flood on the great plains, cold and warm winters and summers, wheat rust, coastal storms and forest fires; the Eastern urban drought of 1961-66 characterized by sustained cold drought in eastern North America; the sea ice period of 1964-65 and 1971-72, characterized by heavy sea ice; snowfall period of 1970-74 characterized by heavy winter snowfalls and a late, wet spring; and the global interdependence period of 1972 characterized by cold winters in Canada and USSR, drought in Asia, the Sahel, Australia, central America, floods in North Africa, high ocean surface temperatures off Peru, and unusually cold weather in the corn belt. 33 refs., 15 figs., 7 tabs.

  3. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  4. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2014-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  5. Longitudinal Study of the Impacts of a Climate Change Curriculum on Undergraduate Student Learning: Initial Results

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristin C. Burkholder

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The present study assesses the efficacy of a semester-long undergraduate sustainability curriculum designed from a systems approach. The three-course curriculum, which incorporated environmental science and ethics courses along with an integrative course using a community-based learning pedagogy, was intended to provide students with experience using knowledge and skills from distinct disciplines in a holistic way in order to address the complex problems of the human acceptance of and response to anthropogenic climate change. In the fall of 2013, 23 of the 24 sophomore general education students enrolled in the three courses were surveyed at the beginning and end of the semester; 17 of those same students completed the survey again in the spring of 2016, their senior year. Results, which focus on the 17 students who continued to participate through their senior year, were analyzed with quantitative and qualitative methodologies. The pre/post data from the surveys demonstrated significant improvement in climate literacy, certainty, concern and urgency over the course of the semester; the senior data indicated that those improvements were largely retained. The study also suggests that the nine-credit curriculum improved transferable skills such as interdisciplinary thinking, self-confidence and public speaking. A qualitative analysis of three student cases, informed by a focus group (n = 7 of seniors along with other sources of information, suggested retention of such transferable skills, and, in some cases, deeper involvement in climate and sustainability action.

  6. The effect of climate change on electricity needs – A case study from Mediterranean Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zachariadis, Theodoros; Hadjinicolaou, Panos

    2014-01-01

    This paper assesses additional electricity requirements and the associated costs in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus by the mid-21st century because of projected anthropogenic climate change, following an interdisciplinary approach that combines climate science with economics. An econometric model of electricity demand is used, in conjunction with climate projections from a state-of-the-art Global Circulation Model with a regional focus on the Eastern Mediterranean. Annual electricity demand is projected to rise by about 6% compared to a ‘no climate change’ case. Although these additional power requirements are not very remarkable on an annual basis, total costs up to 2050, which may exceed 730 million Euros at today's prices, imply that the country may need to forgo one or two years of economic growth in order to cope with extra electricity needs due to climate change. This outlook indicates that a reasonable future energy path in regions with Mediterranean climate would involve substantial deployment of solar-powered electricity generation, which can meet peak load requirements while reducing the country's energy dependence. Moreover, this forecast highlights the need for adaptation to climate change through investments in the improvement of the energy performance of the building stock. - Highlights: • Assessment of additional electricity needs in Cyprus because of climate change. • Use of econometric model of electricity demand and regional climate projections. • Annual electricity demand to rise by 6% by 2050 due to climate change. • Welfare losses of up to more than 150 million Euros (at 2010 prices) per year. • Impacts can be tackled by use of solar power and energy efficiency improvements

  7. Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on China's Agriculture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liu, H.; Li, Xiubin [Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Beijing, 100101 (China); Fischer, G.; Sun, Laixiang [International Institute for Applied System Analysis IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg (Austria)

    2004-07-01

    This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's agriculture based on the Ricardian model. By using county-level cross-sectional data on agricultural net revenue, climate, and other economic and geographical data for 1275 agriculture dominated counties, we find that under most climate change scenarios both higher temperature and more precipitation would have an overall positive impact on China's agriculture. However, the impacts vary seasonally and regionally. Autumn effect is the most positive, but spring effect is the most negative. Applying the model to five climate scenarios in the year 2050 shows that the East, the Central part, the South, the northern part of the Northeast, and the Plateau would benefit from climate change, but the Southwest, the Northwest and the southern part of the Northeast may be negatively affected. In the North, most scenarios show that they may benefit from climate change. In summary, all of China would benefit from climate change in most scenarios.

  8. Financing for climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cooper, Richard N.

    2012-01-01

    This paper argues that the 2009 pledge of $100 billion in 2020 by rich countries for mitigation and adaptation should not be used for mitigation by commercial firms in developing countries, since that would artificially create competitive advantage for such firms and provoke protectionist reactions in the rich countries where firms must bear the costs of mitigation, thereby undermining the world trading system. The costs of heating the earth's surface should be borne by all emitters, just as the price of copper and other scarce resources is paid by all users, rich or poor. That will still leave scope for rich country help in adaptation to climate change and in bringing to fruition new technologies to reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► Slowing climate change significantly cannot occur without the participation of the largest emitters among developing countries. ► The cost of GHG mitigation must be the same for all competing firms, wherever they are located. ► The world trading system is seriously at risk in the face of a poorly designed system for global mitigation of greenhouse gases. ► No significantly emitting firm, anywhere, public or private, should be protected from the incentive to reduce its emissions. ► Higher prices for fossil fuels need not reduce national growth rates in consuming countries.

  9. Sensitivity of hydrological modeling to meteorological data and implications for climate change studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roy, L.G.; Roy, R.; Desrochers, G.E.; Vaillancourt, C.; Chartier, I.

    2008-01-01

    There are uncertainties associated with the use of hydrological models. This study aims to analyse one source of uncertainty associated with hydrological modeling, particularly in the context of climate change studies on water resources. Additional intent of this study is to compare the ability of some meteorological data sources, used in conjunction with an hydrological model, to reproduce the hydrologic regime of a watershed. A case study on a watershed of south-western Quebec, Canada using five different sources of meteorological data as input to an offline hydrological model are presented in this paper. Data used came from weather stations, NCEP reanalysis, ERA40 reanalysis and two Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) runs driven by NCEP and ERA40 reanalysis, providing atmospheric driving boundary conditions to this limited-area climate model. To investigate the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to different sources of meteorological data, we first calibrated the hydrological model with each of the meteorological data sets over the 1961-1980 period. The five different sets of parameters of the hydrological model were then used to simulate streamflow of the 1981-2000 validation period with the five meteorological data sets as inputs. The 25 simulated streamflow series have been compared to the observed streamflow of the watershed. The five meteorological data sets do not have the same ability, when used with the hydrological model, to reproduce streamflow. Our results show also that the hydrological model parameters used may have an important influence on results such as water balance, but it is linked with the differences that may have in the characteristics of the meteorological data used. For climate change impacts assessments on water resources, we have found that there is an uncertainty associated with the meteorological data used to calibrate the model. For expected changes on mean annual flows of the Chateauguay River, our results vary from a small

  10. Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River basin, Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shahid, Muhammad; Cong, Zhentao; Zhang, Danwu

    2017-09-01

    Climate change and land use change are the two main factors that can alter the catchment hydrological process. The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative contribution of climate change and land use change to runoff change of the Soan River basin. The Mann-Kendal and the Pettit tests are used to find out the trends and change point in hydroclimatic variables during the period 1983-2012. Two different approaches including the abcd hydrological model and the Budyko framework are then used to quantify the impact of climate change and land use change on streamflow. The results from both methods are consistent and show that annual runoff has significantly decreased with a change point around 1997. The decrease in precipitation and increases in potential evapotranspiration contribute 68% of the detected change while the rest of the detected change is due to land use change. The land use change acquired from Landsat shows that during post-change period, the agriculture has increased in the Soan basin, which is in line with the positive contribution of land use change to runoff decrease. This study concludes that aforementioned methods performed well in quantifying the relative contribution of land use change and climate change to runoff change.

  11. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

  12. Climate Change and Algal Blooms =

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Shengpan

    Algal blooms are new emerging hazards that have had important social impacts in recent years. However, it was not very clear whether future climate change causing warming waters and stronger storm events would exacerbate the algal bloom problem. The goal of this dissertation was to evaluate the sensitivity of algal biomass to climate change in the continental United States. Long-term large-scale observations of algal biomass in inland lakes are challenging, but are necessary to relate climate change to algal blooms. To get observations at this scale, this dissertation applied machine-learning algorithms including boosted regression trees (BRT) in remote sensing of chlorophyll-a with Landsat TM/ETM+. The results show that the BRT algorithm improved model accuracy by 15%, compared to traditional linear regression. The remote sensing model explained 46% of the total variance of the ground-measured chlorophyll- a in the first National Lake Assessment conducted by the US Environmental Protection Agency. That accuracy was ecologically meaningful to study climate change impacts on algal blooms. Moreover, the BRT algorithm for chlorophyll- a would not have systematic bias that is introduced by sediments and colored dissolved organic matter, both of which might change concurrently with climate change and algal blooms. This dissertation shows that the existing atmospheric corrections for Landsat TM/ETM+ imagery might not be good enough to improve the remote sensing of chlorophyll-a in inland lakes. After deriving long-term algal biomass estimates from Landsat TM/ETM+, time series analysis was used to study the relations of climate change and algal biomass in four Missouri reservoirs. The results show that neither temperature nor precipitation was the only factor that controlled temporal variation of algal biomass. Different reservoirs, even different zones within the same reservoir, responded differently to temperature and precipitation changes. These findings were further

  13. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    An international Conference on the Economics of Climate Change was convened by the OECD and the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, in June 1993. Participants included many of the world's foremost experts in the field, as well as representatives from business, labour, and other non-governmental organisations. The Conference sought to examine points of consensus and divergence among existing studies on the economics of climate change. Participants also focused on how economic analysis could contribute to meeting the obligations of OECD countries under the 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change. Discussions centered on such topics as the economic costs and benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies, the potential role of carbon taxes and other economic instruments in the policy mix, possibilities for technological change and diffusion, especially in the energy sector, and joint abatement action between industrialized and developing countries. This volume contains the papers presented at the Conference, as well as summaries of the subsequent discussions. It provides an overview of the 'state of the art' in the economics of climate change and several suggestions for future research. (author)

  14. Low robustness of increasing reservoir capacity for adaptation to climate change: A case study for an agricultural river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Daeha; Eum, Hyung-Il

    2017-04-01

    With growing concerns of the uncertain climate change, investments in water infrastructures are considered as adaptation policies for water managers and stakeholders despite their negative impacts on the environment. Particularly in regions with limited water availability or conflicting demands, building reservoirs and/or augmenting their storage capacity were already adopted for alleviating influences of the climate change. This study provides a probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts on water scarcity in a river system regulated by an agricultural reservoir in South Korea, which already increased its storage capacity for water supply. For the assessment, we developed the climate response functions (CRFs) defined as relationships between bi-decadal system performance indicators (reservoir reliability and vulnerability) and corresponding climatic conditions, using hydrological models with 10,000-year long stochastic generation of daily precipitation and temperatures. The climate change impacts were assessed by plotting 52 downscaled climate projections of general circulation models (GCMs) on the CRFs. Results indicated that augmented reservoir capacity makes the reservoir system more sensitive to changes in long-term averages of precipitation and temperatures despite improved system performances. Increasing reservoir capacity is unlikely to be "no regret" adaptation policy for the river system. On the other hand, converting the planting strategy from transplanting to direct sowing (i.e., a demand control) could be a more robust to bi-decadal climatic changes based on CRFs and thus could be good to be a no-regret policy.

  15. Modelling climate change impacts on tourism demand: A comparative study from Sardinia (Italy) and Cap Bon (Tunisia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köberl, Judith; Prettenthaler, Franz; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    Tourism represents an important source of income and employment in many Mediterranean regions, including the island of Sardinia (Italy) and the Cap Bon peninsula (Tunisia). Climate change may however impact tourism in both regions, for example, by altering the regions' climatic suitability for common tourism types or affecting water availability. This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on tourism in the case study regions of Sardinia and Cap Bon. Direct impacts are studied in a quantitative way by applying a range of climate scenario data on the empirically estimated relationship between climatic conditions and tourism demand, using two different approaches. Results indicate a potential for climate-induced tourism revenue gains especially in the shoulder seasons during spring and autumn, but also a threat of climate-induced revenue losses in the summer months due to increased heat stress. Annual direct net impacts are nevertheless suggested to be (slightly) positive in both case study regions. Significant climate-induced reductions in total available water may however somewhat counteract the positive direct impacts of climate change by putting additional water costs on the tourism industry. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Climate Change. Solutions for Australia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coleman, T.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Karoly, D.; Lowe, I.; McMichael, T.; Mitchell, C.; Pearman, G.; Scaife, P.; Reynolds, A. (eds.)

    2004-06-01

    The Australian Climate Group was convened in late 2003 by WWF Australia and the Insurance Australia Group (IAG) in response to the increasing need for action on climate change in Australia. This group proposes a set of solutions to lower the risk that climate change will reach a dangerous level.

  17. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  18. Comparative study on change in groundwaters of rural and urban areas in Korea: effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Sang Woong; Seul Kim, Ye; Kim, Dong Hyun; Kim, Ho Chul; Shin, Min Cheol; Park, Jae Yong; Kim, Heejung; Lee, Jin-Yong

    2013-04-01

    Groundwater occupies a considerable proportion of the world's water resources and is affected by climate change. It is important to understand how water budget responds to future precipitation variability for sustainable management of groundwater resources. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater resources in the future, it is necessary to not only collect field data but also predict groundwater change using some groundwater numerical modelling. In this study, a relevant climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) was adopted and Visual MODFLOW was used as a main tool for predicting water budget. The predicted precipitation and air temperature data were obtained from Climate Change Information Center (CCIC) of Korea. By using the data on the scenario from 2011 to 2100, the future water budget was calculated using groundwater numerical modelling for both Wonju (WJ: urban area) and Yanggu (YG: rural area) of Gangwon Province in Korea. The model calibration was done by the groundwater level measured at 10 monitoring wells. For the numerical prediction, the groundwater recharge (WJ: 10.1%, YG: 13.3%) was estimated using watertable fluctuation (WTF) method and a concept of threshold precipitation (WJ: 240.5 mm, YG: 363.8 mm) was applied. Consequently, the water levels in both Wonju and Yanggu showed gradually increasing trends and ranged from 3.0 to 10.8 m, from 0.5 to 1.8 m in 2100, respectively. Under annual precipitation fluctuation on the scenario (2011-2100), water budget IN-OUT value (-0.87~1.07 m3/day) in Wonju city gradually increases while that (-0.73~0.46 m3/day) of Yanggu county does not. However, its annual difference is enlarged with year for both areas. The results indicate that securing groundwater resource and its management will be difficult because of frequent annual change of the groundwater storage. This work was supported by Science High School R&E program (No. C1008804-01-01) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant

  19. World Regionalization of Climate Change(1961–2010)

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peijun; Shi; Shao; Sun; Daoyi; Gong; Tao; Zhou

    2016-01-01

    Traditional climate classification or regionalization characterizes the mean state of climate condition, which cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change currently. We have developed a climate change classification method, as well as the fundamental principles, an indicator system, and mapping techniques of climate change regionalization. This study used annual mean temperature and total precipitation as climatic indices, and linear trend and variation change as change indices to characterize climate change quantitatively. The study has proposed a scheme for world climate change regionalization based on a half century of climate data(1961–2010). Level-I regionalization divides the world into 12 tendency zones based on the linear trend of climate, level-II regionalization resulted in 28 fluctuation regions based on the variation change of climate. Climate change regionalization provides a scientific basis for countries and regions to develop plans for adapting to climate change, especially for managing climate-related disaster or environmental risks.

  20. Climate change and related activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    The production and consumption of energy contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and is the focus of other environmental concerns as well. Yet the use of energy contributes to worldwide economic growth and development. If we are to achieve environmentally sound economic growth, we must develop and deploy energy technologies that contribute to global stewardship. The Department of Energy carries out an aggressive scientific research program to address some of the key uncertainties associated with the climate change issue. Of course, research simply to study the science of global climate change is not enough. At the heart of any regime of cost-effective actions to address the possibility of global climate change will be a panoply of new technologies-technologies both to provide the services we demand and to use energy more efficiently than in the past. These, too, are important areas of responsibility for the Department. This report is a brief description of the Department's activities in scientific research, technology development, policy studies, and international cooperation that are directly related to or have some bearing on the issue of global climate change

  1. The transnational regime complex for climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth W Abbott

    2012-01-01

    In climate change, as in other areas, recent years have produced a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of transnational institutions, standards, financing arrangements, and programs. As a result, climate governance has become complex, fragmented, and decentralized, operating without central coordination. Most studies of climate governance focus on inter­state institutions. In contrast, I map a different realm of climate change governance: the diverse array of transnational schemes. I analyze this emerging s...

  2. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  3. Global Analysis of Changes in Water Supply Yields and Costs under Climate Change. A Case Study in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kirshen, P. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and WaterSHED Center, Tufts University, Medford, Massachussetts, 02155 (United States); McCluskey, M. [CDM, Inc., Denver, Colorado (United States); Vogel, R. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and WaterSHED Center, Tufts University, Medford, Massachussetts, 02155 (United States); Strzepek, K. [Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, and Environment and Behavior Program, Institute for Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 80309 (United States)

    2005-02-01

    Using China as a case study, a methodology is presented to estimate the changes in yields and costs of present and future water production systems under climate change scenarios. Yield is important to consider because it measures the actual supply available from a river basin. Costs are incurred in enhancing the natural yield of river basins by the construction and operation of reservoirs and ground water pumping systems. The interaction of ground and surface waters within a river basin and instream flow maintenance are also modeled. The water demands considered are domestic, irrigation, and instream flow needs. We found that under climate change the maximum yields of some basins in China may increase or decrease, depending upon location, and that in some basins it may cost significantly more or it may not be possible to meet the demands. While our results for China could be improved with more hydrologic and economic data, we believe that the cost curves developed have suitable accuracy for initial analysis of water supply costs in Integrated Assessment Models.

  4. Philosophy of sufficiency economy for community-based adaptation to climate change: Lessons learned from Thai case studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kulvadee Kansuntisukmongkol

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Major components within the philosophy of a sufficiency economy include moderation, prudence, and self-immunity together with knowledge and morality. These components were proposed to safeguard local communities from adverse changes and crises. Climatic crises due to global warming can impact upon local agricultural production and consumption systems. Yet, it is still questionable whether communities following the sufficiency economy philosophy can cope with climate change. The objective of this research was to study the coping and adaptive capacity to climate change of local agricultural communities following the sufficiency economy philosophy and to analyze the success factors of adaptation to climate change. The research found five adaptive strategies leading to a resilient livelihood: (1 self-evaluation, (2 diversity dependency, (3 storage and reserve, (4 cooperation, and (5 mobility over space and time. These strategies help to reduce exposure and sensitivity, while increasing adaptive capacity to climate change with the aims of sustainability and adaptation for survival, and protecting natural resource bases for food and settlement security. Moderation, prudence, and self-immunity are critical success factors of adaptation measures, whereas local ecological knowledge with morality is a core enabling factor for adapting to climate change. These factors can be applied in community-based climate change adaptation in the National Adaptation Plan.

  5. Study on the Future Climate Change and Its Influence on the Growth Stage and Yield of Wheat in Weifang City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing; YUAN; Jianping; XU; Lijuan; SUN; Xiuzhen; ZHANG; Xiaoli; WANG

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang,and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production,the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS.And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future.The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction.If taking into account the effect of CO2,the yield of wheat would increase.

  6. Climate change convention

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, D.

    1992-01-01

    Principles that guide Canada's Green Plan with respect to global warming are outlined. These include respect for nature, meeting environmental goals in an economically beneficial manner, efficient use of resources, shared responsibilities, federal leadership, and informed decision making. The policy side of the international Framework Convention on Climate Change is then discussed and related to the Green Plan. The Convention has been signed by 154 nations and has the long-term objective of stabilizing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at levels that prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Some of the Convention's commitments toward achieving that objective are only applicable to the developed countries. Five general areas of commitment are emissions reductions, assistance to developing countries, reporting requirements, scientific and socioeconomic research, and education. The most controversial area is that of limiting emissions. The Convention has strong measures for public accountability and is open to future revisions. Canada's Green Plan represents one country's response to the Convention commitments, including a national goal to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions at the 1990 level by the year 2000

  7. Climate change impact assessment of extreme precipitation on urban flash floods – case study, Aarhus, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Rosbjerg, Dan

    projections for estimation of changes in extreme rainfall characteristics. Climate model projections from 20 regional climate models (RCM) from the ENSEMBLES data archive were used in the analysis. Two different estimation methods were applied, using, respectively, a direct estimation of the changes...... in the extreme value statistics of the RCM data, and application of a stochastic weather generator fitted to the changes in rainfall characteristics from the RCM data. The results show a large variability in the projected changes in extreme precipitation between the different RCMs and the two estimation methods...

  8. How People Reason: A Grounded Theory Study of Scientific Reasoning about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiyu

    Scientific reasoning is crucial in both scientific inquiry and everyday life. While the majority of researchers have studied "how people reason" by focusing on their cognitive processes, factors related to the underpinnings of scientific reasoning are still under-researched. The present study aimed to develop a grounded theory that captures not only the cognitive processes during reasoning but also their underpinnings. In particular, the grounded theory and phenomenographic methodologies were integrated to explore how undergraduate students reason about competing theories and evidence on global climate change. Twenty-six undergraduate students were recruited through theoretical sampling. Constant comparative analysis of responses from interviews and written assessments revealed that participants were mostly drawn to the surface features when reasoning about evidence. While prior knowledge might not directly contribute to participants' performance on evidence evaluation, it affected their level of engagement when reading and evaluating competing arguments on climate issues. More importantly, even though all participants acknowledged the relative correctness of multiple perspectives, they predominantly favored arguments that supported their own beliefs with weak scientific reasoning about the opposing arguments. Additionally, factors such as personal interests, religious beliefs, and reading capacity were also found to have bearings on the way participants evaluated evidence and arguments. In all, this work contributes to the current endeavors in exploring the nature of scientific reasoning. Taking a holistic perspective, it provides an in-depth discussion of factors that may affect or relate to scientific reasoning processes. Furthermore, in comparison with traditional methods used in the literature, the methodological approach employed in this work brought an innovative insight into the investigation of scientific reasoning. Last but not least, this research may

  9. Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies. Vol. I. Proceedings of an International Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-07-15

    Humanity is facing many water related challenges, including access to safe water, pollution of continental and coastal waters and ocean acidification, as well as the growing impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Many countries are confronted by increasingly stressed water resources due to rapidly growing populations, increasing agricultural and energy production demands, industrial development, and pollution. The greatest issues of the 21st century, including competition for resources and possible related conflicts, may well focus on the role of water in food and energy security. For more than 50 years, the IAEA has played a key role in advancing and promoting the development and use of isotope techniques to address global environmental issues, such as water resources assessment and management, the study of marine ecosystems, and more recently the impact of climate change. This symposium was jointly organized by theWater Resources Programme and IAEA Environment Laboratories to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA laboratory in the P rincipality of Monaco, and represented the 13th edition of the quadrennial symposium on isotope hydrology and water resources management, which has been regularly organized by the IAEA since 1963. The main objectives of the symposium were to review the state of the art in isotope hydrology, the use of isotopes in the study of climatic systems and in marine ecosystems and to outline recent developments in the application of isotope techniques, as well as to identify future trends and developments for research and applications. The contributions submitted by the authors are included in two volumes of proceedings with editorial corrections. These proceedings are intended to serve as an aid for those using isotopes for applied problems in hydrology as well as for the research community.

  10. Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies, Vol. 2. Proceedings of the International Symposium

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-07-15

    Humanity is facing many water related challenges, including access to safe water, pollution of continental and coastal waters and ocean acidification, as well as the growing impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Many countries are confronted by increasingly stressed water resources due to rapidly growing populations, increasing agricultural and energy production demands, industrial development, and pollution. The greatest issues of the 21st century, including competition for resources and possible related conflicts, may well focus on the role of water in food and energy security. For more than 50 years, the IAEA has played a key role in advancing and promoting the development and use of isotope techniques to address global environmental issues, such as water resources assessment and management, the study of marine ecosystems, and more recently the impact of climate change. This symposium was jointly organized by the Water Resources Programme and IAEA Environment Laboratories to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA laboratory in the Principality of Monaco, and represented the 13th edition of the quadrennial symposium on isotope hydrology and water resources management, which has been regularly organized by the IAEA since 1963. The main objectives of the symposium were to review the state of the art in isotope hydrology, the use of isotopes in the study of climatic systems and in marine ecosystems and to outline recent developments in the application of isotope techniques, as well as to identify future trends and developments for research and applications. The contributions submitted by the authors are included in two volumes of proceedings with editorial corrections. These proceedings are intended to serve as an aid for those using isotopes for applied problems in hydrology as well as for the research community.

  11. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  12. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  13. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  14. Indications of climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-04-01

    The earth's annual mean global temperature increased by around 0,6 C during the 20 century, with wide regional differences. Even if solar activity has played some part in the mean temperature rise and some greenhouse gases are present naturally in the atmosphere, enhancing of the greenhouse effect due to the human activities is responsible for a large and increasing part of the observed warming. The work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirms the future increase under all scenarios. Depending on the efforts made by mankind to limit greenhouse gases emissions, the global mean temperature in 2100 could be between 1,4 and 5,8 C higher than in 2000. (A.L.B.)

  15. A climate of change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueres Olsen, J.M.; Figueres, C.

    2000-01-01

    Global climate change has ceased to be strictly an environmental threat, lurking in the future. Its potential impacts could well make it the greatest social and economic challenge that humanity will have to face in the coming century. The first is competition. An energy revolution is now in the making, with advanced new technologies such as fuel cells, photovoltaics, wind turbines and flywheels entering the market. The reason why we moved beyond the horse and buggy a hundred years ago was not because we ran out of hay. Similarly, there is no doubt that the planet still has impressive oil reserves. However, as was the case when the oil era first emerged, those industries that successfully incorporate the new technologies will be well positioned to succeed economically in the 21 st century

  16. Potential global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1994-01-01

    Global economic integration and growth contribute much to the construction of energy plants, vehicles and other industrial products that produces carbon emission and in effect cause the destruction of the environment. A coordinated policy and response worldwide to curb emissions and to effect global climate change must be introduced. Improvement in scientific understanding is required to monitor how much emission reduction is necessary. In the near term, especially in the next seven years, sustained research and development for low carbon or carbon-free energy is necessary. Other measures must also be introduced, such as limiting the use of vehicles, closing down inefficient power plants, etc. In the long term, the use of the electric car, use solar energy, etc. is required. Reforestation must also be considered to absorb large amounts of carbon in the atmosphere

  17. Ethics and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abel, O.; Bard, E.; Berger, A.; Besnier, J.M.; Guesnerie, R.; Serres, M.

    2009-01-01

    Faced with climate change what is the position of scientists, of economists and of political decision makers? And the one of philosophers, of moralists, and of theologians? Finally, what is the position of anyone of us? This question of ethical aspect has been rarely tackled in France so far. Prepared after a colloquium held in Paris in 2009, this book combines scientifical, philosophical, moral and theological perspectives accessible to anyone. It stresses on the novelty and urgency of the ethical thought concerning a question having a strong impact of the humanity future, and more particularly on the future of the most vulnerable of us. If the human being is capable to mobilize himself collectively for a universal cause, he can stay on individualistic positions as well, in particular when he has to care of the fate of the generations to come. This book is a philosophical-scientifical thought which aims at bringing together four main views on this issue. (J.S.)

  18. Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

    2017-12-01

    In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to

  19. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  20. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-11-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  1. Our climate change actions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-05-01

    One of the main tools utilized by the Canadian government to encourage the private sector and other organizations to monitor, report and implement measures for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is the Climate Change Voluntary Challenge and Registry (VCR), a program supported by several industry leaders in the oil and gas sector, such as the Canadian Energy Pipeline Association (CEPA). Financial resources and human efforts have expanded for the past seven years (since 1995) by the transmission pipeline companies with the aim of continuously reducing the emissions of greenhouse gas which have an impact on climate change. The successes achieved by member companies of CEPA are described in this document, resulting in limitations to the growth of greenhouse gas emissions by players in the sector. The three types of greenhouse gas emissions produced by transmission pipelines, carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide, and the process by which they are produced, are explained. The high growth in emissions by transmission pipelines is due to the higher amounts of energy required to move increasing volumes of natural gas. Some of the successes achieved by companies in direct emissions in the sector are: advances in inventory accuracy, greenhouse gas audits, measuring fugitive emissions, reducing emissions from fossil fuel combustion, state-of-the-art technology, energy efficiency, computer modelling, improving operational efficiency and replacing equipment. In indirect emissions, the measures implemented include efficiency of electricity use and helping consumers save. Using waste heat to create electricity, and offsets through cogeneration are measures that contribute to the successes in innovation

  2. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  3. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  4. Voluntary business activities to mitigate climate change: Case studies in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakabayashi, Masayo

    2013-01-01

    Voluntary business activities, such as the voluntary action plans conducted by comprehensive business associations in Japan to reduce environmental damage, are viable policy instruments alongside regulations and economic incentives (e.g. taxes and emissions trading schemes). This paper examines three case studies in which voluntary activities have played a successful role in mitigating climate change. Based on interviews with business organisations together with a literature review and data analysis, we show why businesses are motivated to take socially responsible actions and describe the major benefits of such activities. One of the important benefits of voluntary activities is their flexibility in phasing measures. This flexibility is greatly appreciated, since industries are able to retain control of their responses to future uncertainties, which allows them to tackle climate change issues aggressively. We conclude that voluntary activities have been more environmentally effective than alternative policy measures under a proper institutional framework, which consists of effective motivation mechanisms for businesses, governmental measures to encourage their compliance, and capable industrial associations that can lessen the transaction costs both of the government and of industry. - Highlights: • Businesses are well motivated to take suitable, technologically feasible actions. • Capability of industrial associations is a key to successful voluntary activities. • Flexibility allows businesses to manage uncertainty and aim for ambitious goals

  5. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  6. Improving niche projections of plant species under climate change: Silene acaulis on the British Isles as a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.; Dai, Junhu; Alatalo, Juha M.

    2018-04-01

    Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed.

  7. Construction of climate change scenarios from transient climate change experiments for the IPCC impacts assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viner, D.; Hulme, M.; Raper, S.C.B.; Jones, P.D.

    1994-01-01

    This paper outlines the different methods which may be used for the construction of regional climate change scenarios. The main focus of the paper is the construction of global climate change scenarios from climate change experiments carried out using General Circulation Models (GCMS) An introduction to some GCM climate change experiments highlights the difference between model types and experiments (e.g., equilibrium or transient). The latest generation of climate change experiments has been performed using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMS. These allow transient simulations of climate change to be performed with respect to a given greenhouse gas forcing scenario. There are, however, a number of problems with these simulations which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios for use in climate change impacts assessment. The characteristics of the transient climate change experiments which pose difficulties for the construction of climate change scenarios are discussed. Three examples of these problems are: different climate change experiments use different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios; the 'cold-start' problem makes it difficult to link future projections of climate change to a given calendar year; a drift of the climate is noticeable in the control simulations. In order to construct climate change scenarios for impacts assessment a method has therefore to be employed which addresses these problems. At present the climate modeling and climate change impacts communities are somewhat polarized in their approach to spatial scales. Current GCMs model the climate at resolutions larger than 2.5 x 3.75 degree, while the majority of impacts assessment studies are undertaken at scales below 50km (or 0.5 degree). This paper concludes by addressing the problems in bringing together these two different modeling perspectives by presenting a number of regional climate change scenarios. 35 refs., 8 figs., 2 tabs

  8. The Inuit and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fenge, T.

    2001-12-31

    Marked climate change has been forecast for regions in high latitudes by global climate models presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Observations and reports of significant alterations to the natural environment of Canada's north have been reported by Inuit and other indigenous peoples using their traditional ecological knowledge as a reference. Global climate change appears to be the cause for the changes noted. Many aspects of climate change need to be addressed, such as research, outreach, impacts, adaptations and international negotiations. Based on the strong partnership that had been developed between the Inuit and four federal agencies, three territorial governments and four indigenous people's organizations in support of the Northern Contaminants Program, Inuit are now seeking a partnership with the federal government to address the issues mentioned above concerning climate change. refs., 1 tab.

  9. Improving predictions of tropical forest response to climate change through integration of field studies and ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaohui; Uriarte, María; González, Grizelle; Reed, Sasha C.; Thompson, Jill; Zimmerman, Jess K.; Murphy, Lora

    2018-01-01

    Tropical forests play a critical role in carbon and water cycles at a global scale. Rapid climate change is anticipated in tropical regions over the coming decades and, under a warmer and drier climate, tropical forests are likely to be net sources of carbon rather than sinks. However, our understanding of tropical forest response and feedback to climate change is very limited. Efforts to model climate change impacts on carbon fluxes in tropical forests have not reached a consensus. Here we use the Ecosystem Demography model (ED2) to predict carbon fluxes of a Puerto Rican tropical forest under realistic climate change scenarios. We parameterized ED2 with species-specific tree physiological data using the Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer workflow and projected the fate of this ecosystem under five future climate scenarios. The model successfully captured inter-annual variability in the dynamics of this tropical forest. Model predictions closely followed observed values across a wide range of metrics including above-ground biomass, tree diameter growth, tree size class distributions, and leaf area index. Under a future warming and drying climate scenario, the model predicted reductions in carbon storage and tree growth, together with large shifts in forest community composition and structure. Such rapid changes in climate led the forest to transition from a sink to a source of carbon. Growth respiration and root allocation parameters were responsible for the highest fraction of predictive uncertainty in modeled biomass, highlighting the need to target these processes in future data collection. Our study is the first effort to rely on Bayesian model calibration and synthesis to elucidate the key physiological parameters that drive uncertainty in tropical forests responses to climatic change. We propose a new path forward for model-data synthesis that can substantially reduce uncertainty in our ability to model tropical forest responses to future climate.

  10. Vulnerability assessment in African villages under conditions of land use and climate change: case studies from Mkomazi and Keiskamma

    OpenAIRE

    Grothmann, Torsten; Petzold, Maximilian; Ndaki, Patrick; Kakembo, Vincent; Siebenhüner, Bernd; Kleyer, Michael; Yanda, Pius; Ndou, Naledzani

    2017-01-01

    While most climate change vulnerability assessments focus on regional or city-levels, this paper studies villages and their different forms of vulnerability vis-à-vis climate change. In the African context, the village level proves to be central for land-use related decision-making given the traditional role of village communities. The paper analyses two different regions, namely the Mkomazi Water Basin in Tanzania and the Keiskamma River Catchment in South Africa. Due to the differing roles ...

  11. Anticipating impacts of climate change on fish habitat to support decisionmaking in hydropower licensing: a climate risk study for the Hiram Dam, Saco River, ME

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagron, C. S.; Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) issues licenses for non-federal hydropower projects through its Integrated Licensing Process (ILP). Through this multi-stage, multi-year decision process, NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) can request studies needed to prescribe license conditions to mitigate dams' effects on trust resources, e.g. fish passages and flow requirements. NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its mandates to maintain fisheries and protected species. Although 30-50 year hydropower licenses and renewals are within the time frame of anticipated risks from changing climate, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating climate science is "too uncertain," and therefore not actionable. The ILP is an opportunity to incorporate climate change risks in this decision process, and to make decisions now to avoid failures later in the system regarding both hydropower reliability (the concern of FERC and the applicant) and ecosystem health (NMFS's concern). NMFS has partnered with climate scientists at the ESRL Physical Sciences Division to co-produce a climate study request for the relicensing of the Hiram Project on the Saco River in Southern Maine. The Saco hosts Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) runs which are not currently self-sustaining. This presentation will describe basin-to-basin variability in both historic river analyses (Hydro-Climate Data Network, HCDN) and projected hydrologic responses of New England rivers to climate forcings using statewide Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) demonstrate the need to develop Saco-specific watershed models. Furthermore, although methods for projecting fishery-relevant metrics (heat waves, flood annual exceedance probabilities) have been proven in nearby basins, this modeling has not been conducted at fishery-relevant thresholds. Climate study requests are an example of bridging between science and

  12. Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

    2015-01-01

    This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites

  13. Climate Change in China : Exploring Informants' Perceptions of Climate Change through a Qualitative Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lipin, Tan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a global social issue. Many studies try to explore the mechanisms behind climate change and the consequences of climate change, and provide information for developing the measures to mitigate or adapt to it. For example, the IPCC reviews and assesses climate-change-related scientific information produced worldwide, thus aiming to support decision-making from a scientific perspective. However, though various international and regional c...

  14. Reforestation and Climate Change Mitigation. A background Study for Joint Implementation in China and Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gan, Lin; Naess, Lars Otto; Kasa, Sjur; O` Brien, Karen L

    1998-12-01

    This report studies the importance of institutional barriers in promoting reforestation as a means of mitigating global climate change. It is argued that cost-effective implementation of reforestation depends on proper institutional settings in host countries. Particular emphasis is placed on the role of property rights. The relationship between various stakeholders, such as governments, non-governmental organisations, the private sector, and international aid agencies is analysed. Discussed aspects include conflicts among stakeholders, long-term security or stability of property rights regimes, distribution of property rights, and information exchange. The forest situation in China and Indonesia is used as an example. The study outlines a number of conflicts in the property rights regime that need a better understanding. Some important issues that need further study are listed. 66 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  15. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-10-01

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  16. Navigating SA's climate change legislation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dickey, Suzanne

    2006-01-01

    It is proposed that there should be a legislation to address climate change and Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Bill. South Australian Government Greenhouse Strategy and climate change legislation in light of the far-reaching implications this legislation could have on clients, who face the impacts of climate change in the business and natural environment. It is a commitment to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in South Australia by 2050 to 60 per cent of 1990 levels

  17. Climate change, environment and development

    OpenAIRE

    Okereke, Chukwumerije; Massaquoi, Abu-Bakar S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change, a quintessential environmental problem, is generally recognised as the most important development challenge in the 21st century (IPCC, 2014). In addition to acknowledging its many significant direct consequences, climate change is increasingly used to frame discussions on other important global challenges, such as health, energy and food security. This chapter provides understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between climate change, environment and development.

  18. Global change of the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moharam-nejad, Naser.

    1995-01-01

    Greenhouse effect is defined. greenhouse gases which are capable to produce greenhouse effect is mentioned. The production of greenhouse effects depends on the following factors; The amount of discharge to the atmosphere, Concentration, Life span, stability, Absorption and Emission. The effect of global change of climate on agriculture and living organisms is discussed. Global actions related to climate change and national procedures are described. The aim of climate change convention is given and the important points of convention is also mentioned

  19. Vulnerability to climate change in the Arctic: a case study from Arctic Bay, Canada

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ford, J.D.; Smit, B.; Wandel, J. [University of Guelph, Ontario (Canada). Department of Geography

    2006-05-15

    This paper develops a vulnerability-based approach to characterize the human implications of climate change in Arctic Bay, Canada. It focuses on community vulnerabilities associated with resource harvesting and the processes through which people adapt to them in the context of livelihood assets, constraints, and outside influences. Inuit in Arctic Bay have demonstrated significant adaptability in the face of changing climate-related exposures. This adaptability is facilitated by traditional Inuit knowledge, strong social networks, flexibility in seasonal hunting cycles, some modern technologies, and economic support. Changing Inuit livelihoods, however, have undermined certain aspects of adaptive capacity, and have resulted in emerging vulnerabilities in certain sections of the community. (author)

  20. International energy technology collaboration and climate change mitigation. Case study 1. Concentrating Solar Power Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Philibert, C. [Energy and Environment Division, International Energy Agency IEA, Paris (France)

    2004-07-01

    international collaboration by describing the globalisation of the economy and current efforts of technology collaboration and transfer. Finally, it considers various ways to strengthen international energy technology collaboration. This paper is one of six case-studies designed in an effort to provide practical insights on the role international technology collaboration could play to achieve the objectives of the UNFCCC. They will all consider the past achievements of international technology collaboration, and the role it could play in helping to develop and disseminate new technologies in the future: what worked, what did not work and why, and what lessons might be drawn from past experiences. Most case studies consider energy technologies that could help mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. A few others consider areas not directly related to greenhouse gas emissions but where international technology collaboration has proven particularly successful in the past. This case study reviews past and current experience in international collaboration in the field of concentrating solar technologies in order to identify lessons that may be relevant for more general climate-friendly technology collaboration. It presents concentrating solar technologies in their current status, recent achievements and development prospects. It analyses the present successes and failures of different forms of international collaboration in this field, and draws lessons for further elaboration of international technology collaboration in addressing climate change.

  1. Municipal vulnerability to climate change

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available South Africa, like the rest of Africa, is considered highly vulnerable to climate change and variability as well as to global change. Climate change is and will continue to be an issue of concern in the development of the country. South Africa faces...

  2. Floods in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

    2013-01-01

    Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

  3. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions. © The Author(s) 2014.

  4. Complex interactions among climate change, sanitation, and groundwater quality: A case study from Ramotswa, Botswana

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, B. M.; Altchenko, Y.; Kenabatho, P. K.; Sylvester, S. R.; Villholth, K. G.

    2017-12-01

    With population growth, rapid urbanization, and climate change, groundwater is becoming an increasingly important source of drinking water around the world, including southern Africa. This is an investigation into the coupled human and natural system linking climate change, droughts, sanitation, and groundwater quality in Ramotswa, a town in the semi-arid southeastern Botswana. During the recent drought from 2013-2016, water shortages from reservoirs that supply the larger city of Gaborone resulted in curtailed water supply to Ramotswa, forcing people with flush toilets to use pit latrines. Pit latrines have been suspected as the cause of elevated nitrate in the Ramotswa groundwater, which also contributes to the town's drinking water supply. The groundwater pollution paradoxically makes Ramotswa dependent on Gaborone's water, supplied in large part by surface reservoirs, which are vulnerable to drought. Analysis of long-term rainfall records indicates that droughts like the one in 2013-2016 are increasing in likelihood due to climate change. Because of the drought, many more people used pit latrines than under normal conditions. Analysis of the groundwater for nitrate and using caffeine as an indicator, human waste leaching from pit latrines is implicated as the major culprit for the nitrate pollution. The results indicate a critical indirect linkage between climate change, sanitation, groundwater quality and water security in this area of rapid urbanization and population growth. Recommendations are offered for how Ramotswa's water security could be made less vulnerable to climate change.

  5. Risk assessment of hydro projects in the face of climate change - a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, W.; Kilduff, T.

    2008-01-01

    As the IPCC's Climate Change 2007 report made clear, warming of the Climate System is unequivocal. It is also clear that warming of the land surface can significantly affect the hydrological systems of snow-fed rivers. Thus, it is prudent to consider the potential impacts of climate change when conducting cost-benefit analysis of hydro-electric system capital improvements. This paper evaluates the benefits to Seattle City Light, Seattle's municipal utility, of an upgrade to one of its hydro-electric projects, not on the basis, as is common, of historical flow data, but on the basis of modeled flows under a specific climate change scenario. Another novelty of the paper is that the analysis relies not on one 'normal' or average flow, but on an ensemble of flows that reflect the range of hydro conditions that might be anticipated under the climate scenario. Although the nature of the anticipated impacts of climate in the Northwest are such that the results are not markedly different from ignoring them, the paper raises a number of interesting issues that such analysis should typically address. (author)

  6. Climate change. Climate in Medieval time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Hughes, Malcolm K; Diaz, Henry F

    2003-10-17

    Many papers have referred to a "Medieval Warm Period." But how well defined is climate in this period, and was it as warm as or warmer than it is today? In their Perspective, Bradley et al. review the evidence and conclude that although the High Medieval (1100 to 1200 A.D.) was warmer than subsequent centuries, it was not warmer than the late 20th century. Moreover, the warmest Medieval temperatures were not synchronous around the globe. Large changes in precipitation patterns are a particular characteristic of "High Medieval" time. The underlying mechanisms for such changes must be elucidated further to inform the ongoing debate on natural climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.

  7. Climate Change and Forest Disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    V. H. Dale; L. A. Joyce; S. McNulty; R. P. Neilson; M. P. Ayres; M. D. Flannigan; P. J. Hanson; L. C. Irland; A. E. Lugo; C. J. Peterson; D. Simberloff; F. J. Swanson; B. J. Stocks; B. M. Wotton

    2001-01-01

    CLIMATE CHANGE CAN AFFECT FORESTS BY ALTERING THE FREQUENCY, INTENSITY, DURATION, AND TIMING OF FIRE, DROUGHT, INTRODUCED SPECIES, INSECT AND PATHOGEN OUTBREAKS, HURRICANES, WINDSTORMS, ICE STORMS, OR LANDSLIDES

  8. The economics of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, T.

    1992-01-01

    Perhaps the most startling aspect of the debate on climate change is the speed with which it has climbed the international political agenda. In 1985, climate change was viewed almost entirely as a scientific issue. Only seven years later, most industrialized countries have made some sort of political pledge to abate their emissions of greenhouse gases over a specific timetable. And earlier this year, 154 countries signed a Framework Convention on Climate Change at the UN Conference on Environment and Development in Rio de Janeiro. What is the present 'state of play' in the economics of climate change. And what priorities are now emerging in 'post-Rio' policy. 11 ref

  9. Analysis of long-term changes in extreme climatic indices: a case study of the Mediterranean climate, Marmara Region, Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbasnia, Mohsen; Toros, Hüseyin

    2018-05-01

    This study aimed to analyze extreme temperature and precipitation indices at seven stations in the Marmara Region of Turkey for the period 1961-2016. The trend of temperature indices showed that the warm-spell duration and the numbers of summer days, tropical nights, warm nights, and warm days have increased, while the cold-spell duration and number of ice days, cool nights, and cool days have decreased across the Marmara Region. Additionally, the diurnal temperature range has slightly increased at most of the stations. A majority of stations have shown significant warming trends for warm days and warm nights throughout the study area, whereas warm extremes and night-time based temperature indices have shown stronger trends compared to cold extremes and day-time indices. The analysis of precipitation indices has mostly shown increasing trends in consecutive dry days and increasing trends in annual rainfall, rainfall intensity for inland and urban stations, especially for stations in Sariyer and Edirne, which are affected by a fast rate of urbanization. Overall, a large proportion of study stations have experienced an increase in annual precipitation and heavy precipitation events, although there was a low percentage of results that was significant. Therefore, it is expected that the rainfall events will tend to become shorter and more intense, the occurrence of temperature extremes will become more pronounced in favor of hotter events, and there will be an increase in the atmospheric moisture content over the Marmara Region. This provides regional evidence for the importance of ongoing research on climate change.

  10. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.; Zanuttigh, Barbara; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2014-01-01

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  11. Developing effective communication materials on the health effects of climate change for vulnerable groups: a mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreslake, Jennifer M; Price, Katherine M; Sarfaty, Mona

    2016-09-07

    Individuals with chronic health conditions or low socioeconomic status (SES) are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Health communication can provide information on the management of these impacts. This study tested, among vulnerable audiences, whether viewing targeted materials increases knowledge about the health impacts of climate change and strength of climate change beliefs, and whether each are associated with stronger intentions to practice recommended behaviors. Low-SES respondents with chronic conditions were recruited for an online survey in six cities. Respondents were shown targeted materials illustrating the relationship between climate change and chronic conditions. Changes in knowledge and climate change beliefs (pre- and post-test) and behavioral intentions (post-test only) were tested using McNemar tests of marginal frequencies of two binary outcomes or paired t-tests, and multivariable linear regression. Qualitative interviews were conducted among target audiences to triangulate survey findings and make recommendations on the design of messages. Respondents (N = 122) reflected the target population regarding income, educational level and prevalence of household health conditions. (1) Knowledge. Significant increases in knowledge were found regarding: groups that are most vulnerable to heat (children [p concise language, how climate change affects health conditions and how to engage in protective adaptation behaviors.

  12. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  13. Scariest thing about climate change: climate flips

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaulieu, P.

    1997-01-01

    The idea that an increase in greenhouse gases will cause the global average temperature to rise slowly over the next decades was discussed. Studies of ice core from Greenland have shown that in the past climate shifts seem to have happened quickly. Some scientists fear that increasingly frequent extreme weather events could be a sign that the climate system is nearing its threshold and a rapid climate flip may be just ahead. In the case of global climatic system, the danger is that stresses from greenhouse gas effects are pushing the present system over the threshold where it must flip into a new warmer system that will be stable, but different from the climate on which our agriculture, economy, settlements and lives depend. 4 refs

  14. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought...... or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  15. Climate Change and the Social Factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Kjerulf; Jensen, Anne; Nielsen, Signe Svalgaard

    This poster reports from a explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The aim of the project was to explore how people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation, what risks are associated with climate change and how are those risks balanced with other...... risks and concerns of everyday life? The project found that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. The prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting...... ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. People have a high level of trust in socio-technical systems and feel that adaptation measures primarily should be taken by the authorities....

  16. The economics of climate change in agriculture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zilberman, D.; Liu, Xuemei; Roland-Holst, D.; Sunding, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a conceptual framework of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It assumes that climate change will result in a fertilization effect and a shift of agro-ecological conditions away from the Equator towards the Poles. The agro-ecological shift is likely to reduce yield because of reduced acreage and the fertilization effect will increase yield. The aggregate effect depends on whichever of the two dominates. The overall effect of climate change may be less significant than its distributional effects and the results are consistent with previous empirical studies. The impact of climate change depends on its pace. Faster changes in climate will result in higher cost. The assessment of the cost has to consider that climate change is a dynamic phenomenon that may require continuous adjustment. Environmental regulation that emphasizes conservation may increase cost of adjustment and environmental policies should emphasize adaptation and flexibility

  17. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  18. Climate Change Through a Poverty Lens

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozenberg, J.; Hallegatte, S.

    2017-12-01

    Analysis of the economic impact of climate change typically considers regional or national economies and assesses its impact on macroeconomic aggregates such as gross domestic product. These studies therefore do not investigate the distributional impacts of climate change within countries or the impacts on poverty. This Perspective aims to close this gap and provide an assessment of climate change impacts at the household level to investigate the consequences of climate change for poverty and for poor people. It does so by combining assessments of the physical impacts of climate change in various sectors with household surveys. In particular, it highlights how rapid and inclusive development can reduce the future impact of climate change on poverty.

  19. Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J

    2017-02-01

    A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

  20. A Case Study in Caribbean Climate Change: Impacts on Crop Suitability and Small Farmer Vulnerability in St. Elizabeth, Jamaica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, W. R.; Gamble, D. W.; Popke, J.

    2013-12-01

    This paper examines some of the implications of climate change for farming in the Caribbean, through an analysis of future crop suitability and a case study of climate variability and agricultural practices in St. Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica. To assess potential changes in Caribbean agriculture, we present results from a water budget model based on a 100-year regional climate projection of temperature and precipitation for the circum-Caribbean basin. We find that future water deficits in the region are climate type-dependent. Savanna climates experience the largest annual changes, while semi-arid environments are greatly impacted in the spring. When the impacts of temperature and precipitation are considered separately, we find that predicted future warming, and the associated increase in evapotranspiration, has a slightly larger climatological effect on crop water need than predicted decreases in precipitation. To illustrate how a changing climate regime may impact agricultural practices, we present results from recent fieldwork in St. Elizabeth Parish, one of the main farming regions on the island of Jamaica. Drawing on data from farmer interviews and a recently-installed weather mesonet, we highlight the ways in which local microclimates influence farmer livelihood strategies and community-level vulnerability. Initial results suggest that farmers are experiencing greater climate variability, and that communities with Savanna and semi-arid type climates may be more susceptible to drought than communities in wetter, higher-elevation microclimates. These changes have enhanced the importance of irrigation technology and water management strategies for successful farming. In this context, we argue, large, well-capitalized farmers may be better able to manage the uncertainties associated with climate change, leading to an uneven landscape of vulnerability across the region.

  1. Carbon sequestration index as a determinant for climate change mitigation: Case study of Bintan Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyudi, A.'an J.; Afdal; Prayudha, Bayu; Dharmawan, I. W. E.; Irawan, Andri; Abimanyu, Haznan; Meirinawati, Hanny; Surinati, Dewi; Syukri, Agus F.; Yuliana, Chitra I.; Yuniati, Putri I.

    2018-02-01

    The increase of the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) affects the global carbon cycle altering the atmospheric system and initiates the climate changes. There are two ways to mitigate these changes, by maintaining the greenhouse gasses below the carbon budget and by conserving the marine and terrestrial vegetation for carbon sequestration. These two strategies become variable to the carbon sequestration index (CSI) that represents the potential of a region in carbon sequestration, according to its natural capacity. As a study case, we conducted carbon sequestration research in Bintan region (Bintan Island and its surrounding), Riau Archipelago province. This research was aimed to assess the CSI and its possibility for climate change mitigation. We observed carbon sequestration of seagrass meadows and mangrove, greenhouse gas (CO2) emission (correlated to population growth, the increase of vehicles), and CSI. Bintan region has 125,849.9 ha of vegetation area and 14,879.6 ha of terrestrial and marine vegetation area, respectively. Both vegetation areas are able to sequester 0.262 Tg C yr-1 in total and marine vegetation contributes about 77.1%. Total CO2 emission in Bintan region is up to 0.273 Tg C yr-1, produced by transportation, industry and land use sectors. Therefore, CSI of the Bintan region is 0.98, which is above the global average (i.e. 0.58). This value demonstrates that the degree of sequestration is comparable to the total carbon emission. This result suggests that Bintan’s vegetation has high potential for reducing greenhouse gas effects.

  2. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    considerations regarding how the process was designed in order to be legitimate as a voice for citizens, how different types of knowledge and expert identities were created and negotiated in the event, and how the framing influenced the outcome. The specific conditions of the event, i.e. the relation to a high......The global event World Wide Views on Global Warming (WWV), initiated by the Danish Board of Technology (DBT), took place on September 26, 2009, and was an innovative attempt to gather a united citizen voice on a global scale. As such the WWV is one of the most recent experiments with new ways...... to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  3. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  4. An overview of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masson-Delmotte, V.; Paillard, D.

    2004-01-01

    We describe briefly here the main mechanisms and time scales involved in natural and anthropogenic climate variability, based on quantitative paleo-climatic reconstructions from natural archives and climate model simulations: the large glacial-interglacial cycles of the last million years (the Quaternary), lasting typically a hundred thousand years, triggered by changes in the solar radiation received by the Earth due to its position around the Sun; the century-long climatic changes occurring during last glacial period and triggered by recurrent iceberg discharges of the large northern hemisphere ice caps, massive freshwater flux to the north Atlantic, and changes in the ocean heat transport. We show the strong coupling between past climatic changes and global biogeochemical cycles, namely here atmospheric greenhouse gases. We also discuss the decadal climatic fluctuations during the last thousand years, showing an unprecedented warming attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show the range of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations forecasted for the end of the 21. century and the climate model predictions for global temperature changes during the 21. century. We also discuss the possible climatic changes at longer time scales involving the possibility of north Atlantic heat transport collapse (possibility of abrupt climate change), and the duration of the current interglacial period. (author)

  5. Coverage of Climate Change in Spanish Digital Media. Study in the Framework of the Climate Change Summit in Cancun (2010 and Durban (2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elias Suárez

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available From previous work whose aim was to establish the hegemonic discourse of Spanish television media on climate change (CC, this article reports on a study that selected a corpus of media discourse in Spanish digital media, during the days of the last two international Summits on the CC (Cancun, 2010, Durban, 2011. We made a contet analysys with the goal of giving visibility to the features that concern the CC reference as a subject of public agenda. The analysis found little use of digital resources for the submission of information by the news media within the sample, correlations between the emitters of the contents and the issues raised in reference to the CC, and we propose to analyze the discourses that frame the type of information that is given to the reading public.

  6. Impact of climate change on potential evapotranspiration (case study: west and NW of Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinpashoh, Y.; Jahanbakhsh-Asl, S.; Rasouli, A. A.; Foroughi, M.; Singh, V. P.

    2018-04-01

    Potential evapotranspiration (ET0) is one of the main elements when computing agricultural irrigation requirements and scheduling. All climatic parameters as well as ET0 are influenced by climate change. The aim of this study is trend analysis of monthly and annual ET0 time series in the west and NW of Iran. Values of ET0 are estimated at 36 selected stations, using the FAO-56 Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method. Then, the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK) method was used to detect trends. The slopes of trend lines are estimated using Sen's estimator approach. Results showed that about 86%of the monthly ET0 time series had upward trends of which 35.6 and 43% were significant at 0.01 and 0.05 levels, respectively, 47.4% exhibited a significant upward trend at the 10% level. In contrast, less than 0.7% of the whole monthly ET0 time series showed a significant downward trend (α water in a prudent manner in this area.

  7. Climate change, conflict and health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

    2015-10-01

    Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

  8. Climate change in Australia: technical report 2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide an up-to-date assessment of observed climate change over Australia, the likely causes, and projections of future changes to Australia's climate. It also provides information on how to apply the projections in impact studies and in risk assessments. The two main strategies for managing climate risk are mitigation (net reductions in greenhouse gas emissions) to slow climate change and adaptation to climate impacts that are unavoidable. A number of major advances have been made since the last report on climate change projections in Australia (CSIRO 2001) including: a much larger number of climate and ocean variables are projected (21 and 6 respectively); a much larger number (23) of climate models are used; the provision of probabilistic information on some of the projections, including the probability of exceeding the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles; greater emphasis on projections from models that are better able to simulate observed Australian climate; a detailed assessment of observed changes in Australian climate and likely causes; and information on risk assessment, to provide guidance for using climate projections in impact studies

  9. Climate change drives wind turbines in China: case study of market based wind power development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ming Yang [EET Consulting, Glen Waverley, Victoria (Australia)

    2004-07-01

    This paper aims at quantifying the impact of government policy and clean development mechanism (CDM) on wind power development in China. Firstly we review the background of Chinese wind power development and policy, as well as literature of climate change and CDM. We then present methodology, scenarios and data of a case study for the development of a large-scale grid-connected wind farm. We undertake project financial analysis under three scenarios. Our analysis results show that the project FIRR is 8.31% if CDM benefit is not taken into account, 8.72% if CDM benefit is considered with the price of the certified emission reduction (CER) at US dollars 4, and 10.28% if both the CDM benefit and government policy on cutting value added tax (VAT) by 50% are taken into account. This paper concludes that CDM and government preferential policy on value added tax will make wind power development financially viable in China. (author)

  10. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  11. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  12. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; hide

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  13. Spurring climate-friendly behaviour change: a case study of the university of Grenoble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanchard, Odile

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is definitely a huge challenge for the 21. century. Models in energy economics show that efficiency gains through energy productivity improvement, technical change and technological innovations towards lower carbon technologies will not be sufficient to achieve the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Mitigation actions that stem from individual behaviour change towards a lower individual carbon footprint are also part of the response to the climate challenge. Depending on their current behaviour, individuals may focus on many different actions to reduce their carbon footprint, be they at home, at work or any other place: for example, they can use the public transportation system or ride their bike instead of driving their car, video conference instead of flying to a conference or a meeting, turn the heating system off if they open the window when it is cold outside or if they are out of town for some time, turn the lights off when leaving a room, set their computer in sleep mode when not using it for some time, install sockets to shut off the standby modes of their multi-media devices, reduce the amount of waste they generate by purchasing products in bulk or with little packaging, consume local products rather than goods imported from other regions or countries, follow a diet with a low-meat content, and much more. All those actions, as insignificant as they seem to be in terms of individual energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions, do have a real impact at the macro-economic level. Furthermore, they are often 'low-hanging fruit' options, easy to implement at nearly zero cost. Studies that illustrate this point are numerous and cover all GHG emitting sectors. For example, lowering room temperatures by 1 deg. C is estimated to save 7

  14. Implications of climate change for tourism in Australia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amelung, B.; Nicholls, S.

    2014-01-01

    This study assesses the impacts of projected climate change on Australia's tourism industry. Based on application of the Tourism Climatic Index, it investigates potential changes in climatic attractiveness for Australia's major destinations, and discusses implications for tourist flows and tourism

  15. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  16. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  17. Energy, climate change and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simioni, M.; Stevens, G.W.

    2007-01-01

    There is now very little debate that the earth's climate is changing, and the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence. Many causes have been postulated and speculation about the eventual outcomes abounds. Whatever eventuates, society will have to adapt to a new and changing climate

  18. Climate change and forest disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virginia H. Dale; Linda A. Joyce; Steve McNulty; Ronald P. Neilson; Matthew P. Ayres; Michael D. Flannigan; Paul J. Hanson; Lloyd C. Irland; Ariel E. Lugo; Chris J. Peterson; Daniel Simberloff; Frederick J. Swanson; Brian J. Stocks; Michael Wotton

    2001-01-01

    This article examines how eight disturbances influence forest structure, composition, and function, and how climate change may influence the severity, frequency, and magnitude of disturbances to forests. We focus on examples from the United States, although these influences occur worldwide. We also consider options for coping with disturbance under changing climate....

  19. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  20. Climate indices of Iran under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    alireza kochaki

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Global warming will affect all climatic variables and particularly rainfall patterns. The purpose of present investigation was to predict climatic parameters of Iran under future climate change and to compare them with the present conditions. For this reason, UKMO General Circulation Model was used for the year 2025 and 2050. By running the model, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and also maximum monthly rainfall for the representative climate stations were calculated and finally the effects of climate change on these variables based on pre-determined scenarios was evaluated. The results showed that averaged over all stations, mean temperature increase for spring in the year 2025 and 2050 will be 3.1 and 3.9, for summer 3.8 and 4.7, for autumn 2.3 and 3 and for winter 2.0 and 2.4 ºC, respectively. This increase will be more pronounced from North to the South and from East to the West parts of the country. Mean decrease in autumn rainfall for the target years of 2025 and 2050 will be 8 and 11 percent, respectively. This decrease is negligible for summer months. Length of dry season for the years 2025 and 2050 will be increased, respectively up to 214 and 223 days due to combined effects of increased temperature and decreased rainfall.

  1. Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about

  2. Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Phytogeographical Units. A Case Study of the Moesz Line

    OpenAIRE

    Bede-Fazekas, Ákos

    2013-01-01

    Regional climate models (RCMs) provide reliable climatic predictions for the next 90 years with high horizontal and temporal resolution. In the 21st century northward latitudinal and upward altitudinal shift of the distribution of plant species and phytogeographical units is expected. It is discussed how the modeling of phytogeographical unit can be reduced to modeling plant distributions. Predicted shift of the Moesz line is studied as case study (with three different modeling approaches) us...

  3. Urban Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Europe: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. For example, the summer 2003 European heat wave caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. As around 75% of Europe's population resides in urban areas, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of seasonal to decadal-scale climate variability on urban areas and their populations. This study aims at downscaling the spatially coarse resolution CMIP5 climate predictions to the local urban scale and investigating the relation between heat waves and the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect). The resulting heat stress effect is not only driven by climatic variables but also impacted by urban morphology. Moreover, the exposure varies significantly with the geographical location. All this information is coupled with relevant socio-economic datasets such as population density, age structure, etc. focussing on human health. The analyses are conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. The end-user needs have been consolidated in a climate services plan including the production of heat risk exposure maps and the analysis of various scenarios considering e.g. the uncertainty of the global climate predictions, urban expansion over time and the impact of mitigation measures such as green roofs. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for the design and management of climate resilient cities.

  4. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G A; Turkson, J K; Davidson, O R [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  5. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on 'Climate Change Mitigation in Africa' between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  6. Potential Impact of Climate Change on Suspended Sediment Yield in NW Spain: A Case Study on the Corbeira Catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Luz Rodríguez-Blanco

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Soil losses and the subsequent sediment delivery constitute significant environmental threats. Climate change is likely to have an impact on the availability of water and therefore on sediment yield in catchments. In this context, quantifying the sediment response to an increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change is of utmost importance to the proper management of rural catchments. However, quantitative assessment of climate change impact remains a complex task. In this study, the potential medium (2031–2060 and long-term (2069–2098 impacts of projected changes of temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration on sediment yield in a small rural catchment located in NW Spain were evaluated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. Climate change scenarios were created using future climate data projected by regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project and two CO2 concentration scenarios (550 and 660 ppm. The results showed that climate change would have a noticeable impact on suspended sediment if the forecast temperature, rainfall and CO2 concentration changes included in this study were met. Overall, suspended sediment is expected to decrease (2031–2060: −11%, 2069–2098: −8% compared to the baseline period (1981–2010, mainly due to decreased streamflow. However, an increase in sediment transport in winter is predicted, possibly associated with increased erosion in cultivated areas (11%–17%, suggesting that, at this time of the year, the effect of soil detachment prevails over sediment transport capacity. Consequently, management practices aimed at reducing soil erosion in cultivated areas should be carried out, because these are the main source of sediment in the study area.

  7. Developing effective communication materials on the health effects of climate change for vulnerable groups: a mixed methods study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer M. Kreslake

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Individuals with chronic health conditions or low socioeconomic status (SES are more vulnerable to the health impacts of climate change. Health communication can provide information on the management of these impacts. This study tested, among vulnerable audiences, whether viewing targeted materials increases knowledge about the health impacts of climate change and strength of climate change beliefs, and whether each are associated with stronger intentions to practice recommended behaviors. Methods Low-SES respondents with chronic conditions were recruited for an online survey in six cities. Respondents were shown targeted materials illustrating the relationship between climate change and chronic conditions. Changes in knowledge and climate change beliefs (pre- and post-test and behavioral intentions (post-test only were tested using McNemar tests of marginal frequencies of two binary outcomes or paired t-tests, and multivariable linear regression. Qualitative interviews were conducted among target audiences to triangulate survey findings and make recommendations on the design of messages. Results Respondents (N = 122 reflected the target population regarding income, educational level and prevalence of household health conditions. (1 Knowledge. Significant increases in knowledge were found regarding: groups that are most vulnerable to heat (children [p < 0.001], individuals with heart disease [p < 0.001], or lung disease [p = 0.019]; and environmental conditions that increase allergy-producing pollen (increased heat [p = 0.003], increased carbon dioxide [p < 0.001]. (2 Strength of certainty that climate change is happening increased significantly between pre- and post-test (p < 0.001, as did belief that climate change affected respondents’ health (p < 0.001. (3 Behavioral intention. At post-test, higher knowledge of heat vulnerabilities and environmental conditions that trigger pollen

  8. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm

  9. Assessing future suitability of tree species under climate change by multiple methods: a case study in southern Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helge Walentowski

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available We compared results derived using three different approaches to assess the suitability of common tree species on the Franconian Plateau in southern Germany under projected warmer and drier climate conditions in the period 2061-2080. The study area is currently a relatively warm and dry region of Germany. We calculated species distribution models (SDMs using information on species’ climate envelopes to predict regional species spectra under 63 different climate change scenarios. We complemented this with fine-scale ecological niche analysis using data from 51 vegetation surveys in seven forest reserves in the study area, and tree-ring analysis (TRA from local populations of five tree species to quantify their sensitivity to climatic extreme years. The SDMs showed that predicted future climate change in the region remains within the climate envelope of certain species (e.g. Quercus petraea, whilst for e.g. Fagus sylvatica, future climate conditions in one third of the scenarios are too warm and dry. This was confirmed by the TRA: sensitivity to drought periods is lower for Q. petraea than for F. sylvatica. The niche analysis shows that the local ecological niches of Quercus robur and Fraxinus excelsior are mainly characterized by soils providing favorable water supply than by climate, and Pinus sylvestris (planted is strongly influenced by light availability. The best adapted species for a warmer and potentially drier climate in the study region are Acer campestre, Sorbus torminalis, S. aria, Ulmus minor, and Tilia platyphyllos, which should therefore play a more prominent role in future climate-resilient mixed forest ecosystems.

  10. Climate change negotiation simulations for students: responses across gender and age.A case study: San Francisco State University World Climate Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasheva, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    For decades, role-play and simulation exercises have been utilized for learning and policy decision making. While the power of Model UN simulations in building first-person experience and understanding of complex international issues is well known, the effectiveness of simulations for inspiring citizen engagement in scientific public-policy issues is little studied. My work hypothesizes that climate-change negotiation simulations can enhance students' scientific literacy and policy advocacy. It aims to determine how age and gender influence the responsiveness of students to such simulations. During the 2015 fall semester, I am conducting World Climate exercises for fellow graduate and undergraduate students at San Francisco State University. At the end of the exercise, I will have collected the responses to an anonymous questionnaire in which the participants indicate age and gender. The questionnaire asks participants to describe their hopes and fears for the future and to propose public and personal actions for achieving a strong climate change agreement. I am tracking differences to determine whether participants' age and gender correlate with particular patterns of feeling and thinking. My future research will aim to determine whether and how strongly the World Climate Exercise has affected participants' actual policy engagement. This work will also reflect on my experiences as a World Climate facilitator. I will describe the facilitation process and then discuss some of my observations from the sessions. I will specify the challenges I have encountered and suggest strategies that can strengthen the learning process. World Climate is a computer-simulation-based climate change negotiations role-playing exercise developed by Climate Interactive in partnership with the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

  11. Adapting to health impacts of climate change: a study of UNFCCC Annex I parties

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesnikowski, A C; Ford, J D; Berrang-Ford, L; Paterson, J A; Barrera, M; Heymann, S J

    2011-01-01

    Adapting to the health effects of climate change is one of the key challenges facing public health this century. Our knowledge of progress on adaptation, however, remains in its infancy. Using the Fifth National Communications of Annex I parties to the UNFCCC, 1912 initiatives are systematically identified and analyzed. 80% of the actions identified consist of groundwork (i.e. preparatory) action, with only 20% constituting tangible adaptations. No health vulnerability was recognized by all 38 Annex I countries. Furthermore, while all initiatives affect at least one health vulnerability, only 15% had an explicit human health component. Consideration for the special needs of vulnerable groups is uneven and underdeveloped. Climate change is directly motivating 71% of groundwork actions, and 61% of adaptation initiatives are being mainstreamed into existing institutions or programs. We conclude that the adaptation responses to the health risks of climate change remain piecemeal. Policymakers in the health sector must engage with stakeholders to implement adaptation that considers how climate change will impact the health of each segment of the population, particularly within those groups already considered most vulnerable to poor health outcomes.

  12. Culture, climate change and farm-level groundwater management: An Australian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Matthew R.; Curtis, Allen L.

    2016-05-01

    Cultural factors - values, beliefs, and norms - provide important insights into the environmental attitudes, risk perceptions, and behaviors of the general population. Little is known, however, about the ostensibly complex relationships linking those elements of culture to climate change risk perceptions, especially in the context of farm level decision in the ground water context. This paper addresses that gap through an analysis of survey data provided by irrigators in the Namoi catchment of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. We use Values-Beliefs-Norms theory to construct multivariate models of the relationship between ground water irrigators' interpretations of climate change risks and their implementation of adaptive water conservation practices. Results indicate that these cultural factors are important explanations of irrigators' climate change risk perceptions, and these risk perceptions are related to adaptive ground water management strategies at the farm level. The implications of the findings are discussed for research on the culture-environment nexus and for outreach designed to encourage agricultural adaptations to climate change.

  13. Evaluation of probable maximum snow accumulation: Development of a methodology for climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Iris M.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Frigon, Anne; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick

    2016-06-01

    Probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood (PMF). A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the ensuing spring PMF is a reasonable estimation. This is of particular importance in times of climate change (CC) since it is known that solid precipitation in Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood change over the next century. In this paper, a PMSA methodology based on simulated data from regional climate models is developed. Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationarity tests indicate that CC will affect the monthly maximum precipitable water and, thus, the ensuing ratio to maximize important snowfall events. Therefore, a non-stationary approach is used to describe the monthly maximum precipitable water. Outputs from three simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model were used to give first estimates of potential PMSA changes for southern Quebec, Canada. A sensitivity analysis of the computed PMSA was performed with respect to the number of time-steps used (so-called snowstorm duration) and the threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized or not. The developed methodology is robust and a powerful tool to estimate the relative change of the PMSA. Absolute results are in the same order of magnitude as those obtained with the traditional method and observed data; but are also found to depend strongly on the climate projection used and show spatial variability.

  14. Atmospheric sulfur and climate changes: a modelling study at mid and high-southern latitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castebrunet, H.

    2007-09-01

    The mid and high-southern latitudes are still marginally affected by anthropogenic sulfur emissions. They are the only regions in the world where the natural cycle of the atmospheric sulfur may still be observed. Sulfur aerosols are well-known for their radiative impact, and thus interact with climate. Climate can in turn affect atmospheric sulfur sources, distribution and chemistry. Antarctic ice cores provide information on the evolution of climate and sulfur deposition at the surface of the ice sheet at glacial-interglacial time scales. The aim of this thesis is to develop and use modeling towards a better understanding of the atmospheric sulfur cycle in antarctic and sub-antarctic regions. Ice core data are used to validate model results under glacial climate conditions. An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to a sulfur chemistry module is used: the LMD-ZTSulfur model, version 4. An update of both the physical and chemical parts of the model. The model was first performed. The impact of there changes on modelled sulfur cycle are evaluated for modern climate. Further, boundary conditions are adapted to simulate the atmospheric circulation and sulfur cycle at the Last Glacial Maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. In the model, sulfur is found to be highly sensitive to antarctic sea-ice coverage, which is still poorly known during the ice age. An original dataset of ice-age sea-ice coverage was developed. Its impact on the oceanic emissions of dimethyl sulfide, main precursor of sulfur aerosols at high-southern latitudes, is discussed. Using the same oceanic sulfur reservoirs as for present day climate, the model broadly reproduces the glacial deposits of sulfur aerosols on the Antarctic plateau, suggesting little impact of climate on oceanic sulfur production in the Antarctic region. Sensitivity tests were carried out to draw an up-to-date status of major uncertainties and difficulties facing future progress in understanding atmospheric

  15. Boundary layer stability and Arctic climate change: a feedback study using EC-Earth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bintanja, R.; Linden, E.C. van der; Hazeleger, W. [Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt (Netherlands)

    2012-12-15

    Amplified Arctic warming is one of the key features of climate change. It is evident in observations as well as in climate model simulations. Usually referred to as Arctic amplification, it is generally recognized that the surface albedo feedback governs the response. However, a number of feedback mechanisms play a role in AA, of which those related to the prevalent near-surface inversion have received relatively little attention. Here we investigate the role of the near-surface thermal inversion, which is caused by radiative surface cooling in autumn and winter, on Arctic warming. We employ idealized climate change experiments using the climate model EC-Earth together with ERA-Interim reanalysis data to show that boundary-layer mixing governs the efficiency by which the surface warming signal is 'diluted' to higher levels. Reduced vertical mixing, as in the stably stratified inversion layer in Arctic winter, thus amplifies surface warming. Modelling results suggest that both shortwave - through the (seasonal) interaction with the sea ice feedback - and longwave feedbacks are affected by boundary-layer mixing, both in the Arctic and globally, with the effect on the shortwave feedback dominating. The amplifying effect will decrease, however, with climate warming because the surface inversion becomes progressively weaker. We estimate that the reduced Arctic inversion has slowed down global warming by about 5% over the past 2 decades, and we anticipate that it will continue to do so with ongoing Arctic warming. (orig.)

  16. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manton, M.

    2006-01-01

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  17. El Nino in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Yeh, S. W.; Kug, J. S.; Dewitte, Boris; Kwon, M. H.; Kirtman, B. P.; Jin, F. F.

    2009-01-01

    El Nino events, characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on subdecadal timescales. Understanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of El Nino events in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Recent studies(1-5) show that the canonical El Nino has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Nino has b...

  18. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  19. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R.; Dixon, R.K.

    1995-01-01

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country's vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations

  20. Hydrologic refugia, plants, and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLaughlin, Blair C; Ackerly, David D; Klos, P Zion; Natali, Jennifer; Dawson, Todd E; Thompson, Sally E

    2017-08-01

    Climate, physical landscapes, and biota interact to generate heterogeneous hydrologic conditions in space and over time, which are reflected in spatial patterns of species distributions. As these species distributions respond to rapid climate change, microrefugia may support local species persistence in the face of deteriorating climatic suitability. Recent focus on temperature as a determinant of microrefugia insufficiently accounts for the importance of hydrologic processes and changing water availability with changing climate. Where water scarcity is a major limitation now or under future climates, hydrologic microrefugia are likely to prove essential for species persistence, particularly for sessile species and plants. Zones of high relative water availability - mesic microenvironments - are generated by a wide array of hydrologic processes, and may be loosely coupled to climatic processes and therefore buffered from climate change. Here, we review the mechanisms that generate mesic microenvironments and their likely robustness in the face of climate change. We argue that mesic microenvironments will act as species-specific refugia only if the nature and space/time variability in water availability are compatible with the ecological requirements of a target species. We illustrate this argument with case studies drawn from California oak woodland ecosystems. We posit that identification of hydrologic refugia could form a cornerstone of climate-cognizant conservation strategies, but that this would require improved understanding of climate change effects on key hydrologic processes, including frequently cryptic processes such as groundwater flow. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Mass balance gradients and climatic change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oerlemans, J.; Hoogendoorn, N.C.

    1989-01-01

    It is generally assumed that the mass-balance gradient on glaciers is more or less conserved under climatic change. In studies of the dynamic response of glaciers to climatic change, one of the following assumptions is normally made: (i) the mass-balance perturbation is independent of altitude

  2. The response of glaciers to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, Elisabeth Jantina

    2003-01-01

    The research described in this thesis addresses two aspects of the response of glaciers to climate change. The first aspect deals with the physical processes that govern the interaction between glaciers and climate change and was treated by (1) studying the spatial and temporal variation of the

  3. Singapore Students' Misconceptions of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chew-Hung; Pascua, Liberty

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is an important theme in the investigation of human-environment interactions in geographic education. This study explored the nature of students' understanding of concepts and processes related to climate change. Through semi-structured interviews, data was collected from 27 Secondary 3 (Grade 9) students from Singapore. The data…

  4. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1996-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  5. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  6. Regional climate change trends and uncertainty analysis using extreme indices: A case study of Hamilton, Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Razavi, Tara; Switzman, Harris; Arain, Altaf; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2016-01-01

    This study aims to provide a deeper understanding of the level of uncertainty associated with the development of extreme weather frequency and intensity indices at the local scale. Several different global climate models, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios were used to develop extreme temperature and precipitation indices at the local scale in the Hamilton region, Ontario, Canada. Uncertainty associated with historical and future trends in extreme indices and future climate projectio...

  7. Mitigating climate change: The Philippine case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garcia, J.L.L.

    1998-01-01

    The Government of the Philippines signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate change on June 12, 1992 and the Philippine Congress ratified it in 1994. The Philippine Government has also subsequently created the Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change (IACCC). The GOP is currently preparing the Philippine Country Study to address climate change. The first phase of the work was financed by a grant from the US Country Studies Program which is led by the US Department of Energy. The Study includes the following elements: a) development of a National Inventory of GHG emission and Sinks; b) vulnerability assessment and evaluation of adaptations of coastal resources; c) identification of alternative programs and measures to promote mitigation and/or adaptation to climate change; d) public information and education campaign; and e) development of the National Action Plan on Climate Change. (au)

  8. MODELLING THE EFFECTS OF LAND-USE CHANGES ON CLIMATE: A CASE STUDY ON YAMULA DAM

    OpenAIRE

    Ü. Köylü; A. Geymen

    2016-01-01

    Dams block flow of rivers and cause artificial water reservoirs which affect the climate and the land use characteristics of the river basin. In this research, the effect of the huge water body obtained by Yamula Dam in Kızılırmak Basin is analysed over surrounding spatial’s land use and climate change. Mann Kendal non-parametrical statistical test, Theil&Sen Slope method, Inverse Distance Weighting (IDW), Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) methods are integrated for spa...

  9. Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Running, Steven W.; Keane, Robert E.; Peterson, David L.

    2005-01-01

    Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change.

  10. Adapting agriculture to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

    2007-12-11

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

  11. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    mobilize and redistribute volatile reservoirs both on and below the surface. And for Mars, these variations are large. In the past 20 My, for example, the obliquity is believed to have varied from a low of 15° to a high of 45° with a regular oscillation time scale of ~10^5 years. These variations are typically less than two degrees on the Earth. Mars, therefore, offers a natural laboratory for the study of orbitally induced climate change on a terrestrial planet. Finally, general circulation models (GCMs) for Mars have reached a level of sophistication that justifies their application to the study of spin axis/orbitally forced climate change. With recent advances in computer technology the models can run at reasonable spatial resolution for many Mars years with physics packages that include cloud microphysics, radiative transfer in scattering/absorbing atmospheres, surface heat budgets, boundary layer schemes, and a host of other processes. To be sure, the models will undergo continual improvement, but with carefully designed experiments they can now provide insights into mechanisms of climate change in the recent past. Thus, the geologic record is better preserved, the forcing function is large, and GCMs have become useful tools. While research efforts in each of these areas have progressed considerably over the past several decades, they have proceeded mostly on independent paths occasionally leading to conflicting ideas. To remedy this situation and accelerate progress in the area, the NASA/Ames Research Center's Mars General Circulation Modeling Group hosted a 3-day workshop on May 15-17, 2012 that brought together the geological and atmospheric science communities to collectively discuss the evidence for recent climate change on Mars, the nature of the change required, and how that change could be brought about. Over 50 researchers, students, and post-docs from the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan attended the meeting. The program and abstracts from the workshop are

  12. Undocumented migration in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

    2016-01-01

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986–1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification. PMID:27570840

  13. Undocumented migration in response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986-1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index ( WSDI ) and the precipitation during extremely wet days ( R99PTOT ). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

  14. Business responses to global climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pinkse, J.M.

    2006-04-27

    This research project studies the evolution and determinants of corporate climate strategies of multinationals. Since most companies are affected by global climate change in a direct or indirect way, a range of strategies are emerging to mitigate climate change. These strategies are not only of a political nature (e.g. influencing government institutions), but also of a competitive nature. The aim is to introduce a typology of corporate climate strategies, paying specific attention to the market components related to climate change. More and more, multinationals' actions in reducing greenhouse gas emissions are aimed at achieving a sustained competitive advantage in addition to compliance with government regulation. What factors determine these market strategies for climate change will be explored in a theoretical framework based on institutional theory and the resource-based view of the firm.

  15. The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

  16. Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change: A Case Study on the Ebro River Basin (Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Bellin, A.; Majone, B.; Bovolo, C. I.; Blenkinsop, S.

    2009-12-01

    Uncertainty in projections from climate models limits the understanding of future hydrological impacts and complicates the assessment of mitigation policies. This work presents hydrological simulations of the Ebro River Basin (Spain), using both control (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100) climate scenarios, in order to investigate the effect of climate change on the water availability of the basin. Using the SWAT model, hydrological simulations were carried out for four catchments with different climatological regimes. Sets of model parameters were identified using sensitivity analysis, long-term calibration and uncertainty analysis procedures, which enabled the historical behaviour of the catchments to be reproduced. Following validation, the parameters were used to simulate the effects of climate change on future streamflow. Bias-corrected daily time series of precipitation and mean temperature from an ensemble of 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs), using the SRES A2 emissions scenario, were used as drivers of the hydrological simulations during the future scenarios. Important annual and seasonal differences in the projected future precipitation and temperature fields were observed among the RCMs. However, a general decrease in annual mean precipitation and an increase in annual mean temperature relative to the control period were observed, with the strongest differences during the summer season. When these changes were used to project future streamflows, a general decrease was observed at the outlet of the catchments. Changes in streamflows were in general agreement with the projections of daily precipitation and temperature fields, with a larger drop in predicted monthly streamflows for catchments with more semi-arid climatological regimes, and seasonal differences that are related to the elevation range of the catchments.

  17. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khan, S.; Raja, I.A.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  18. Novel approaches to study climate change effects on terrestrial ecosystems in the field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beier, C.; Emmett, B.; Gundersen, P.

    2004-01-01

    mimicked the way climate change, caused by increased cloudiness and increased greenhouse gas emissions, alters the heat balance of ecosystems. Drought conditions were created by automatically covering the vegetation with transparent curtains during rain events over a 2-5-month period. The experimental...... that the approach minimizes unintended artifacts with respect to water balance, moisture conditions, and light, while causing a small but significant reduction in wind speed by the curtains. Temperature measurements demonstrated that the edge effects associated with the treatments were small. Our method provides...... approach has been evaluated at four European sites across a climate gradient. All sites were dominated (more than 50%) by shrubs of the ericaceous family. Within each site, replicated 4-m X 5-m plots were established for control, warming, and drought treatments and the effect on climate variables recorded...

  19. Developing and implementing climate change adaptation options in forest ecosystems: a case study in southwestern Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Kerry L. Metlen; Gwyneth M. Myer; Alaric V. Sample

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will likely have significant effects on forest ecosystems worldwide. In Mediterranean regions, such as that in southwestern Oregon, USA, changes will likely be driven mainly by wildfire and drought. To minimize the negative effects of climate change, resource managers require tools and information to assess climate change vulnerabilities and to develop...

  20. Climate change with Korea as the center

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Yeon Ok

    1998-04-01

    This book deals with climate change with Korea as the center, which is divided into ten chapters. It explain climate change by human life. The contents of this book are climate change, climate before human period, great ice age of prehistoric period, prehistoric times of last glacial era, climate change in historical era, change during observation time for 100 years, warming period, global environment period, the cause of climate change and climate and human. It has reference and an index.

  1. Climate change and One Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

    2018-06-01

    The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

  2. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  3. Challenges of climate change. Which climate governance?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vieillefosse, A.; Cros, Ch.

    2007-01-01

    This report deals with the main challenges of climate change, and attempts to answer some questions: what is the temperature increase foreseen by scientific experts? Who will be affected by the consequences of climate change? Are there technologies to reduce emissions? If yes, why are they not diffused? Is it justified to ask developing countries to do something? Are concurrence distortions a real problem? Which are the main sectors where emissions are to be reduced? Are tools developed at the international level efficient? What is the present assessment for the clean development mechanism? What can be thought of technological partnerships developed with the United States? Then, the report comments the present status of international discussions, proposes a brief assessment of the Kyoto protocol ten years after its implementation, and proposes some improvement pathways

  4. Ecological risk Evaluation and Green Infrastructure planning for coping with global climate change, a case study of Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong

    2018-01-01

    Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.

  5. Smallholder Agriculture and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cohn, Avery S.; Newton, Peter; Dias Bernardes Gil, Juliana; Kuhl, Laura; Samberg, Leah; Ricciardi, Vincent; Manly, Jessica R.; Northrop, Sarah

    2017-01-01

    Hundreds of millions of the world's poorest people directly depend on smallholder farming systems. These people now face a changing climate and associated societal responses. We use mapping and a literature review to juxtapose the climate fate of smallholder systems with that of other agricultural

  6. A demographic approach to study effects of climate change in desert plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salguero-Gómez, Roberto; Siewert, Wolfgang; Casper, Brenda B.; Tielbörger, Katja

    2012-01-01

    Desert species respond strongly to infrequent, intense pulses of precipitation. Consequently, indigenous flora has developed a rich repertoire of life-history strategies to deal with fluctuations in resource availability. Examinations of how future climate change will affect the biota often forecast negative impacts, but these—usually correlative—approaches overlook precipitation variation because they are based on averages. Here, we provide an overview of how variable precipitation affects perennial and annual desert plants, and then implement an innovative, mechanistic approach to examine the effects of precipitation on populations of two desert plant species. This approach couples robust climatic projections, including variable precipitation, with stochastic, stage-structured models constructed from long-term demographic datasets of the short-lived Cryptantha flava in the Colorado Plateau Desert (USA) and the annual Carrichtera annua in the Negev Desert (Israel). Our results highlight these populations' potential to buffer future stochastic precipitation. Population growth rates in both species increased under future conditions: wetter, longer growing seasons for Cryptantha and drier years for Carrichtera. We determined that such changes are primarily due to survival and size changes for Cryptantha and the role of seed bank for Carrichtera. Our work suggests that desert plants, and thus the resources they provide, might be more resilient to climate change than previously thought. PMID:23045708

  7. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  8. Climate Change and Health

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    David Gikungu

    ... and river blindness; 4 of the big 7 are zoonoses (Benniston, 2002). ... global burden of disease and premature deaths. ... illnesses a year and more than 150,000 extra deaths. • By 2030, however, the number of climate-related diseases is likely .... What additional public health interventions are likely to reduce the projected.

  9. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  10. LCA as a decision support tool in policy making: the case study of Danish spring barley production in a changed climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky

    2015-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can support policy makers in the choice of the most effective measures to adapt to climate change in crop production. A case study involving spring barley cultivation in Denmark under changed climate conditions has been performed using primary data from future climate...

  11. Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San Francisco Bay Area Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wall, T.A.; Walker, W.E.; Marchau, V.A.W.J.; Bertolini, L.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation of existing infrastructure is a response to climate change that can ensure a viable, safe, and robust transportation network. However, deep uncertainties associated with climate change pose significant challenges to adaptation planning. Specifically, current transportation planning

  12. Challenges and potentials in using alternative landscape futures during climate change: A literature review and survey study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Rastandeh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the feasibility of applying alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning during climate change to provide a wider perspective and deeper understanding of this approach for better use and more effective application in the future. The study consists of a literature review and an analysis of recent applied projects carried out worldwide. In addition, an electronic survey was conducted from March to September 2014 to examine viewpoints on the use and application of this approach with reference to climate-change impacts. The survey participants were a group of highly experienced researchers from eighteen countries involved in at least one applied project since 2000 relating to this topic. After analysis of more than forty applied projects, the survey results were incorporated into the analysis to create a comprehensive picture regarding the potentials and limitations of alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning with particular attention to climate change. The findings show that this method is one of the most effective decision-making approaches for adopting landscape policies where landscapes change rapidly under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change. Nevertheless, there is a gap between the advances offered by the approach in various dimensions and the complexity of patterns, uncertainties and upheavals in landscapes due to climate-change impacts in the urbanising world. The research indicates that the approach opens up a great opportunity for decision-makers to expand their perspective and adopt appropriate landscape policies before reaching a point of no return from the sustainability point of view. Meanwhile, there are challenges and barriers in the application of alternative futures and scenario analysis for envisioning the landscapes influenced by climate change and urbanisation that should be pushed back. Although informative, this research raises new questions about this

  13. Adaptation of the landscape for biodiversity to climate change : terrestrial case studies Limburg (NL), Kent and Hampshire (UK)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooij, van S.A.M.; Baveco, J.M.; Bugter, R.J.F.; Eupen, van M.; Opdam, P.F.M.; Steingröver, E.G.; Taylor, S.; Steenwijk, van H.

    2007-01-01

    This study is part of the BRANCH project, aimed at assessing the impact of climate change on species and habitats and formulating strategies for adaptation. It focuses on the local scale in three terrestrial case studies, Limburg (NL) and in Kent and Hampshire (UK). We developed and tested: (a) a

  14. The french researches on the climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-01-01

    Scientists were the first to prevent decision makers on the risk of the climatic change bond to the greenhouse gases emissions. The results of the third GIEC report confirmed that the main part of the global warming of the last 50 years is due to the human activities. This document presents the major results of the french researches during the last five years: the planet observation, the climate evolution study, the simulation of the future climate, the climatic change in France, the impacts of the climatic change on the marine and earth biosphere, the climatic risks and the public policies, the health impacts, the 2003 heat and the research infrastructures. (A.L.B.)

  15. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-07

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  16. Study of climate change related to deforestation in the Xishuangbanna area, Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chungcheng Li; Cong Lai

    1991-01-01

    The analysis of the results of deforestation and the meteorological data of the Xinshuangbanna region of China shows that there are possible relations between the deforestation and climate change. With the forest area decreased by 33% during the past 30 years, the climate of this region has also been changed. The annual mean temperature has been increased by 0.7C, of which the increase is 0.97C in the dry season and 0.53C in the wet season. Together with the annual temperature increase the temperature variations have also been increased, which has resulted in more frequent low temperature damage to the local plantation agriculture. The relative humidity decreased by 3% annually; and the annual precipitation also decreased, with a decrease in the wet season of 6.8% and an increase in the dry season of 20.8%

  17. Climate Change and Conceptual Change

    OpenAIRE

    Clark, David Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Global Warming (“GW”) is easily one of the most pressing concerns of our time,and its solution will come about only through a change in human behavior.Compared to the residents of most other nations worldwide, Americans reportlower acceptance of the realities of GW. In order to address this concern in afree society, U.S. residents must be convinced or coerced to take the necessaryactions. In spite of the democratic appeal of education, however, many climatecommunicators appear t...

  18. Virgin's Knight tackles climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Michael

    2008-11-01

    "There is no greater or more immediate challenge than that posed by climate change," said Sir Richard Branson, chairman of the Virgin group, via video-link at the 59th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) held in Glasgow in the UK at the end of September. That grand statement may seem like a lot of hot air for the entrepreneur best known for his attempt to circumnavigate the globe by balloon. But Branson went on to reveal that Virgin Galactic, which aims to fly passengers 100 km into space for 200 000 per trip, will also provide room on its craft for a series of scientific experiments to study the Earth's atmosphere.

  19. Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones

    OpenAIRE

    Jianjun Huai

    2016-01-01

    Although the integrated indicator methods have become popular for assessing vulnerability to climate change, their proliferation has introduced a confusing array of scales and indicators that cause a science-policy gap. I argue for a clear adaptation pathway in an ?integrative typology? of regional vulnerability that matches appropriate scales, optimal measurements and adaptive strategies in a six-dimensional and multi-level analysis framework of integration and typology inspired by the ?5W1H...

  20. Climate and the changing Sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eddy, J.A.

    1977-01-01

    Long-term changes in the level of solar activity are found in historical records and in fossil radiocarbon in tree-rings. Typical of these changes are the Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645-1715), the Spoerer Minimum (A.D. 1400-1510), and a Medieval Maximum (c. A.D. 1120-1280). Eighteen such features are identified in the tree-ring radiocarbon record of the past 7500 years and compared with a record of world climate. In every case when long-term solar activity falls, mid-latitude glaciers advance and climate colls; at times of high solar activity glaciers recede and climate warms. It is proposed that changes in the level of solar activity and in climate may have a common cause: slow changes in the solar constant, of about 1% amplitude. (Auth.)

  1. VTrans climate change action plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-06-01

    VTrans is working closely with other state agencies, including the Agency of Natural Resources (ANR) to review and implement the transportation-related recommendations from the 2007 Governors Commission on Climate Change (GCCC) final report. The r...

  2. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  3. Climate Change Negotiations Unscrambling Acronyms

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    1992: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Rio. Common but differentiated responsibility (Annex I vs. non-Annex 1); Industrialized countries to bear full incremental costs of adjustment by developing countries ...

  4. The Costs of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jason

    2018-03-01

    This research paper talks about the economic costs of climate change, as well as the costs involved in responding to climate change with alternative fuels. This paper seeks to show that climate change, although seemingly costly in the short run, will both save future generations trillions of dollars and serve as a good economic opportunity. Scientists have long argued that the fate of humanity depends on a shift towards renewable energy. However, this paper will make clear that there is also an economic struggle. By embracing alternative fuels, we will not only lessen the danger and the frequency of these natural disasters but also strengthen the world’s financial state. Although a common argument against responding to climate change is that it is too expensive to make the switch, this research shows that in the future, it will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars. The only question left for policymakers is whether they will grasp this energy source shift.

  5. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  6. Sociology in a Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Elizabeth Shove

    2010-01-01

    This note responds to John Urry's contribution and draws on my own presentation at the BSA Presidential Event on 'How to put 'Society' into Climate Change', held on 8th February 2010 at the British Library.

  7. Geoengineering, climate change scepticism and the 'moral hazard' argument: an experimental study of UK public perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corner, Adam; Pidgeon, Nick

    2014-12-28

    Many commentators have expressed concerns that researching and/or developing geoengineering technologies may undermine support for existing climate policies-the so-called moral hazard argument. This argument plays a central role in policy debates about geoengineering. However, there has not yet been a systematic investigation of how members of the public view the moral hazard argument, or whether it impacts on people's beliefs about geoengineering and climate change. In this paper, we describe an online experiment with a representative sample of the UK public, in which participants read one of two arguments (either endorsing or rejecting the idea that geoengineering poses a moral hazard). The argument endorsing the idea of geoengineering as a moral hazard was perceived as more convincing overall. However, people with more sceptical views and those who endorsed 'self-enhancing' values were more likely to agree that the prospect of geoengineering would reduce their motivation to make changes in their own behaviour in response to climate change. The findings suggest that geoengineering is likely to pose a moral hazard for some people more than others, and the implications for engaging the public are discussed.

  8. Climate Change in the Social Studies Classroom: A "Why" and "How To" Guide Using the C3 Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumler, Lori M.; Vosburg-Bluem, Bethany

    2014-01-01

    Weather phenomena across the United States have provided heightened attention to climate change in headlines such as "Heavy Rain and Floods: The 'New Normal' with Climate Change?" ("Christian Science Monitor," Aug. 14, 2014); "Delay Action on Climate Change by 10 Years and Costs Rocket 40%"…

  9. Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes Climate change and precipitation: Detecting changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Boxel, John H

    2001-01-01

    Precipitation is one of the most, if not the most important climate parameter In most studies on climate change the emphasis is on temperature and sea level rise. Often too little attention is given to precipitation. For a large part this is due to the large spatial en temporal variability of precipitation, which makes the detection of changes difficult. This paper describes methods to detect changes in precipitation. In order to arrive at statistically significant changes one must use long time series and spatial averages containing the information from several stations. In the Netherlands the average yearly precipitation increased by 11% during the 20th century .In the temperate latitudes on the Northern Hemisphere (40-60QN) the average increase was about 7% over the 20th century and the globally averaged precipitation increased by about 3%. During the 20th century 38% of the land surface of the earth became wetter, 42% experienced little change (less than 5% change) and 20% became dryer. More important than the average precipitation is the occurrence of extremes. In the Netherlands there is a tendency to more extreme precipitations, whereas the occurrence of relatively dry months has not changed. Also in many other countries increases in heavy precipitation events are observed. All climate models predict a further increase of mean global precipitation if the carbon dioxide concentration doubles. Nevertheless some areas get dryer, others have little change and consequently there are also areas where the increase is much more than the global average. On a regional scale however there are large differences between the models. Climate models do not yet provide adequate information on changes in extreme precipitations

  10. Assessing ocean vertical mixing schemes for the study of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Lindo, F.; Fells, J.; Tulsee, V.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is a burning issue of our time. It is critical to know the consequences of choosing "business as usual" vs. mitigating our emissions for impacts e.g. ecosystem disruption, sea-level rise, floods and droughts. To make predictions we must model realistically each component of the climate system. The ocean must be modeled carefully as it plays a critical role, including transporting heat and storing heat and dissolved carbon dioxide. Modeling the ocean realistically in turn requires physically based parameterizations of key processes in it that cannot be explicitly represented in a global climate model. One such process is vertical mixing. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS has developed a comprehensive new vertical mixing scheme (GISSVM) based on turbulence theory, including surface convection and wind shear, interior waves and double-diffusion, and bottom tides. The GISSVM is tested in stand-alone ocean simulations before being used in coupled climate models. It is also being upgraded to more faithfully represent the physical processes. To help assess mixing schemes, students use data from NASA-GISS to create visualizations and calculate statistics including mean bias and rms differences and correlations of fields. These are created and programmed with MATLAB. Results with the commonly used KPP mixing scheme and the present GISSVM and candidate improved variants of GISSVM will be compared between stand-alone ocean models and coupled models and observations. This project introduces students to modeling of a complex system, an important theme in contemporary science and helps them gain a better appreciation of climate science and a new perspective on it. They also gain familiarity with MATLAB, a widely used tool, and develop skills in writing and understanding programs. Moreover they contribute to the advancement of science by providing information that will help guide the improvement of the GISSVM and hence of ocean and climate models and ultimately our

  11. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  12. How will climate change affect spatial planning in agricultural and natural environments? Examples from three Dutch case study regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blom-Zandstra, Margaretha; Schaap, Ben; Paulissen, Maurice; Agricola, Herman

    2009-01-01

    Climate change will place increasing pressure on the functioning of agricultural and natural areas in the Netherlands. Strategies to adapt these areas to stress are likely to require changes in landscape structure and management. In densely populated countries such as the Netherlands, the increased pressure of climate change on agricultural and natural areas will inevitably lead, through the necessity of spatial adaptation measures, to spatial conflicts between the sectors of agriculture and nature. An integrated approach to climate change adaptation may therefore be beneficial in limiting such sectoral conflicts. We explored the conflicting and synergistic properties of different climate adaptation strategies for agricultural and natural environments in the Netherlands. To estimate the feasibility and effectiveness of the strategies, we focussed on three case study regions with contrasting landscape structural, natural and agricultural characteristics. For each region, we estimated the expected climate-related threats and associated trade-offs for arable farming and natural areas for 2040. We describe a number of spatial and integrated adaptation strategies to mitigate these threats. Formulating adaptation strategies requires consultation of different stakeholders and deliberation between different interests. We discuss some trade-offs involved in this decision-making.

  13. Climate change adaptation under uncertainty in the developing world: A case study of sea level rise in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.

  14. Impact of Future Climate Change on Regional Crop Water Requirement—A Case Study of Hetao Irrigation District, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tianwa Zhou

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Water shortage is a limiting factor for agricultural production in China, and climate change will affect agricultural water use. Studying the effects of climate change on crop irrigation requirement (CIR would help to tackle climate change, from both food security and sustainable water resource use perspectives. This paper applied SDSM (Statistical DownScaling Model to simulate future meteorological parameters in the Hetao irrigation district (HID in the time periods 2041–2070 and 2071–2099, and used the Penman–Monteith equation to calculate reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0, which was further used to calculate crop evapotranspiration (ETc and crop water requirement (CWR. CWR and predicted future precipitation were used to calculate CIR. The results show that the climate in the HID will become warmer and wetter; ET0 would would increase by 4% to 7%; ETc and CWR have the same trend as ET0, but different crops have different increase rates. CIR would increase because of the coefficient of the increase of CWR and the decrease of effective precipitation. Based on the current growing area, the CIR would increase by 198 × 106 to 242 × 106 m3 by the year 2041–2070, and by 342 × 106 to 456 × 106 m3 by the years 2071–2099 respectively. Future climate change will bring greater challenges to regional agricultural water use.

  15. Fair adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paavola, Jouni; Adger, W. Neil

    2006-01-01

    This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

  16. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-07-01

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  17. Geoprospective study of a nuclear waste repository. Climatology: climatic changes and glaciations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courbouleix, S.

    1985-01-01

    Within the frame of a contract with the CEC dealing with storage and disposal of radioactive wastes in geological formations, the B.R.G.M. has been involved in a research on climatic changes and glaciations. For over three million years, the terrestrial environment has undergone a climate crisis, which causes are still discussed. 700 000 years ago, the paroxysm of this crisis was caracterized by the development of big ice-caps in the northern hemisphere. The last important glacial expansion - the Wurm- begun 70 000 years ago and ended less than 10 000 years ago. Since then, the climate warmed up slightly again with the ''small glacial age'' between the 16th and the 19th centuries. All glaciers regressed during a warmer phase lasting about one century, but, since 1945, the trend is again to a deep in temperature, the climatologists are not able to agree on its causes and its possible develoment. Considering the amplitude and the frequency of the Quaternary climatic changes, it is difficult to think that the glacial crisis is over. Many arguments let suppose the contrary. Therefore, all evidences lead, to the probability of at least one new glaciation wither the next 100 000 years. The problem is to know its importance and when it will occur. If during the present interglacial time, all ices could melt, one can expect a rise sea-levels of about 80 m. On the contrary, in the case of a future glaciation of the same amplitude as the previous one, the stocking of waters by the ice-caps would bring down the sea-level to 120 m which would lead to an important erosion period and a drastic change in landscapes

  18. Climate change and species interactions: ways forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angert, Amy L; LaDeau, Shannon L; Ostfeld, Richard S

    2013-09-01

    With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.

  19. Long-term climate change assessment study plan for the Hanford Site permanent isolation Barrier Development Program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, K.L.; Chatters, J.C.; Waugh, W.J.

    1992-07-01

    The Hanford Site Permanent Isolation Barrier Development Program (Barrier Development Program) was organized to develop the technology needed to provide an in-place disposal capability for the Hanford Site (Adams and Wing 1986; Wig and Gee 1990). The goal of the Barrier Development Program is to provide defensible evidence that final barrier design(s) will adequately control water infiltration; plant and animal intrusion; and wind and water erosion for a minimum of 1,000 yr and isolate wastes from the accessible environment and warm inadvertent human intruders using markers. This document describes the long-term climate change studies planned to support the Barrier Development Program. The plan outlines a multi-year and multi-discipline approach to assess long-term climate change issues and to help optimize the design of the permanent isolation barriers. A multi-disciplinary approach to climatic data acquisition will be responsible for obtaining needed information for concurrent barrier tasks and for developing a local climate forecast model. This model will couple past climate patterns with models of regional and global climate drivers to provide bounding conditions for barrier performance assessment analys