WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change studies

  1. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  2. Study on climate change in Southwestern China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Zongxing

    2015-03-01

    Nominated by Chinese Academy of Sciences as an outstanding Ph.D. thesis. Offers a needed exploration of the temporal and spatial pattern of climate change in southwestern China. Explores the action mechanism among the large-scale atmospheric circulation system, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. Analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change from the aspects of morphology of the glacier, glacial mass balance and the process of hydrology. This thesis confirms many changes, including sharp temperature rise, interannual variability of precipitation, extreme climate events and significant decreases of sunshine duration and wind speed in southwestern China, and systemically explores the action mechanism between large-scale atmospheric circulation systems, the complicated topography, human activities and regional climate changes. This study also analyzes the response of glaciers to climate change so that on the one hand it clearly reflects the relationship between glacier morphologic changes and climate change; on the other, it reveals the mechanism of action of climate warming as a balance between energy and matter. The achievements of this study reflect a significant contribution to the body of research on the response of climate in cold regions, glaciers and human activities to a global change against the background of the typical monsoon climate, and have provided scientific basis for predictions, countermeasures against disasters from extreme weather, utilization of water and the establishment of counterplans to slow and adapt to climate change. Zongxing Li works at the Cold and Arid Region Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.

  3. Tools for Teaching Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maestas, A.M.; Jones, L.A.

    2005-03-18

    The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Climate Research Facility (ACRF) develops public outreach materials and educational resources for schools. Studies prove that science education in rural and indigenous communities improves when educators integrate regional knowledge of climate and environmental issues into school curriculum and public outreach materials. In order to promote understanding of ACRF climate change studies, ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks about climate change for host communities close to the research sites. A kiosk for the North Slope of Alaska (NSA) community was installed at the Iupiat Heritage Center in 2003, and a kiosk for the Tropical Western Pacific locales will be installed in 2005. The kiosks feature interviews with local community elders, regional agency officials, and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program scientists, which highlight both research and local observations of some aspects of environmental and climatic change in the Arctic and Pacific. The kiosks offer viewers a unique opportunity to learn about the environmental concerns and knowledge of respected community elders, and to also understand state-of-the-art climate research. An archive of interviews from the communities will also be distributed with supplemental lessons and activities to encourage teachers and students to compare and contrast climate change studies and oral history observations from two distinct locations. The U.S. Department of Energy's ACRF supports education and outreach efforts for communities and schools located near its sites. ACRF Education and Outreach has developed interactive kiosks at the request of the communities to provide an opportunity for the public to learn about climate change from both scientific and indigenous perspectives. Kiosks include interviews with ARM scientists and provide users with basic information about climate change studies as well as interviews with elders and community leaders

  4. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  5. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  6. Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies : An advanced envelope-based selection approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, Arthur F.; ter Maat, Herbert W.; Biemans, Hester; Shrestha, Arun B.; Wester, Philippus; Immerzeel, Walter W.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change impact studies depend on projections of future climate provided by climate models. The number of climate models is large and increasing, yet limitations in computational capacity make it necessary to compromise the number of climate models that can be included in a climate change impa

  7. Climate change mitigation studies in Sri Lanka

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Sri Lanka, Climate Change Mitigation Studies have received low priority and have been limited to an ADB-sponsored preliminary study followed by an initial assessment of some mitigation options in the energy and agricultural sectors, with technical assistance from the US Country Studies Program. The major focus was on options of the mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. Owing to funding constraints, only the potential for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the various mitigation options were quantified; analysis of monetary costs and benefits or policy/programs for adoption of the options were not undertaken. For the non-energy sector, a very limited study on mitigation of methane emissions from rice fields was carried out. (au)

  8. Climate change mitigation studies in Sri Lanka

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wickramaratne, Rupa [Ministry of Forestry and Environment, GEF/UNDP Enabling Activity Project (Sri Lanka)

    1998-12-01

    In Sri Lanka, Climate Change Mitigation Studies have received low priority and have been limited to an ADB-sponsored preliminary study followed by an initial assessment of some mitigation options in the energy and agricultural sectors, with technical assistance from the US Country Studies Program. The major focus was on options of the mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy sector. Owing to funding constraints, only the potential for reduction of carbon dioxide emissions resulting from the various mitigation options were quantified; analysis of monetary costs and benefits or policy/programs for adoption of the options were not undertaken. For the non-energy sector, a very limited study on mitigation of methane emissions from rice fields was carried out. (au)

  9. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  10. Several Suggestions on the Climate Change and Its Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    According to the abundant studies,the relevant information and comprehensive analysis of the climate changes,several important problems on the climate changes and its studies were proposed.Based on the temporal distribution of the meteorological disaster of agriculture,the wave theory was expounded so as to draw people's attention on climate changes and to be objective,just and careful about the study.

  11. Mapping Climate Change: Six U.S. Case Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmberg, Marjorie O.

    2010-01-01

    This research focuses on the current role of mapping practices in communicating climate change in the United States. This includes maps used in monitoring climate change, projecting its potential impacts, and identifying potential adaptation strategies at particular scales. Since few, if any, studies have been done specifically on mapping…

  12. Methodological Issues on Climate Change Mitigation Studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lene; Borges, Pedro Castro; Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses national greenhouse gas emission abatement costing studies as a case to discuss influential factors that determine their outcome and achievement. Costing studies are seen as part of an interconnected whole social process where actors (decision makers, clients, facilitators, experts....... Some methodological principles are suggested to address such contradictions, structure, and change th einteractions between the different dimensions of hte social process framework. Two studies are mentioned in which ideas are presented on how to deal with the central contradictions. Applying...

  13. Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy

  14. Linking Indigenous Knowledge and Observed Climate Change Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexander, Chief Clarence; Bynum, Nora; Johnson, Liz; King, Ursula; Mustonen, Tero; Neofotis, Peter; Oettle, Noel; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Sakakibara, Chie; Shadrin, Chief Vyacheslav; Vicarelli, Marta; Waterhouse, Jon; Weeks, Brian

    2010-01-01

    We present indigenous knowledge narratives and explore their connections to documented temperature and other climate changes and observed climate change impact studies. We then propose a framework for enhancing integration of these indigenous narratives of observed climate change with global assessments. Our aim is to contribute to the thoughtful and respectful integration of indigenous knowledge with scientific data and analysis, so that this rich body of knowledge can inform science, and so that indigenous and traditional peoples can use the tools and methods of science for the benefit of their communities if they choose to do so. Enhancing ways of understanding such connections are critical as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment process gets underway.

  15. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  16. Climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  17. Norwegian Hydrological Reference Dataset for Climate Change Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Magnussen, Inger Helene; Killingland, Magnus; Spilde, Dag

    2012-07-01

    Based on the Norwegian hydrological measurement network, NVE has selected a Hydrological Reference Dataset for studies of hydrological change. The dataset meets international standards with high data quality. It is suitable for monitoring and studying the effects of climate change on the hydrosphere and cryosphere in Norway. The dataset includes streamflow, groundwater, snow, glacier mass balance and length change, lake ice and water temperature in rivers and lakes.(Author)

  18. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  19. Climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book proposes both a scientific and societal approach of a phenomenon which is today the object of lot of debates. Climates perception is illustrated with examples taken in various modern civilizations and in the history of mankind. The Sahara example illustrates the notion of climate evolution. The last chapters are devoted to forecasting and scenarios for the future, taking into account the share of uncertainty. The controversies generated by these forecasts and the Kyoto protocol stakes demonstrate the tight links between the scientific, economical and political aspects in climatic change debates. (J.S.)

  20. Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    The IJOEM

    2010-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathways could stabilise the global average atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) at 450 ppm, the level which has a 50% chance of keeping the temperature rise to 2 oC? What policies are nee...

  1. Contribution of anthropology to the study of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, Jessica; Dove, Michael; Lahsen, Myanna; Mathews, Andrew; McElwee, Pamela; McIntosh, Roderick; Moore, Frances; O'Reilly, Jessica; Orlove, Ben; Puri, Rajindra; Weiss, Harvey; Yager, Karina

    2013-06-01

    Understanding the challenge that climate change poses and crafting appropriate adaptation and mitigation mechanisms requires input from the breadth of the natural and social sciences. Anthropology's in-depth fieldwork methodology, long engagement in questions of society-environment interactions and broad, holistic view of society yields valuable insights into the science, impacts and policy of climate change. Yet the discipline's voice in climate change debates has remained a relatively marginal one until now. Here, we identify three key ways that anthropological research can enrich and deepen contemporary understandings of climate change.

  2. Studies on climate change problems and response measures in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate has substantial influence on the development of human society. At the same time, the global climate is being affected by human activities. Since industrial revolution large amount of CO2 and other greenhouse gases have been emitted to the atmosphere, causing significant change in its composition. It is recognized that this change might be sufficient to cause change in global climate. Because of the importance of climate change issues, the Chinese government pays great attention to them. As climate change concerns almost all aspects of the social and economic development, in order to coordinate ministries and agencies of the government in their efforts to deal with climate change problems, the Coordinating Group on Climate Change under the Environmental Protection Committee of the State Council was established in February 1990. There are four working groups under the Coordinating Group, working on scientific assessment, impact assessment and response strategies, economic implication and international convention matters of climate change. A number of research and technological development projects related to climate change issues have been organized, including bilateral cooperation projects and projects supported by GEF, UNEP, UNDP, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and other international organizations. (EG) 11 refs

  3. Groundwater and climate change in Africa : review of recharge studies

    OpenAIRE

    Bonsor, H. C.; A M. Macdonald

    2010-01-01

    The review of recharge studies was conducted as part of a one year DFID-funded research programme, aimed at improving understanding of the impacts of climate change on groundwater resources and local livelihoods – see http://www.bgs.ac.uk/GWResilience/. The review is one of a series of components within the project. The overall outputs of the project are: Two hydrogeological case studies in West and East Africa – which assess the storage and availability of groundwater in different aquifers a...

  4. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  5. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations. PMID:27179801

  6. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  7. Combating climate change : A case study of Statoil′s climate strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Jönsson, Josefin; Eklöf, Camilla

    2008-01-01

    Level:                           Master thesis in Business administration with concentration towards Ecological economics   Title:             Combating climate change – a case study of Statoil’s climate strategy   Problem:       The world is facing an environmental situation where we no longer can ignore problems like climate change, losses of species and an overall environmental degradation. Many actors have to take their responsibility and do as much as they can for a sustainable developme...

  8. Climate Change: Basic Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are here: EPA Home Climate Change Basic Information Climate Change: Basic Information On This Page Climate change ... We can make a difference How is the climate changing in the U.S.? Observations across the United ...

  9. Recent Progress in Studies of Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Guoyu; DING Yihui; ZHAO Zongci; ZHENG Jingyun; WU Tongwen; TANG Guoli; XU Ying

    2012-01-01

    An overview of basic research on climate change in recent years in China is presented. In the past 100 years in China,average annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) has increased at a rate ranging from 0.03℃ (10 yr)-1 to 0.12℃ (10 yr)-1.This warming is more evident in northern China and is more significant in winter and spring.In the past 50 years in China,at least 27% of the average annual warming has been caused by urbanization.Overall,no significant trends have been detected in annual and/or summer precipitation in China on a whole for the past 100 years or 50 years. Both increases and decreases in frequencies of major extreme climate events have been observed for the past 50 years. The frequencies of extreme temperature events have generally displayed a consistent pattern of change across the country,while the frequencies of extreme precipitation events have shown only regionally and seasonally significant trends.The frequency of tropical cyclone landfall decreased slightly,but the frequency of sand/dust storms decreased significantly.Proxy records indicate that the annual mean SAT in the past a few decades is the highest in the past 400-500 years in China,but it may not have exceeded the highest level of the Medieval Warm Period (1000-1300 AD).Proxy records also indicate that droughts and floods in eastern China have been characterized by continuously abnormal rainfall periods,with the frequencies of extreme droughts and floods in the 20th century most likely being near the average levels of the past 2000 years.The attribution studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere are likely to be a main factor for the observed surface warming nationwide.The Yangtze River and Huaihe River basins underwent a cooling trend in summer over the past 50 years,which might have been caused by increased aerosol concentrations and cloud cover.However,natural climate variability might have been a main driver for the mean and

  10. Changing climate, changing frames

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: ► We show development of flood policy frames in context of climate change attention. ► Rising attention on climate change influences traditional flood policy framing. ► The new framing employs global-scale scientific climate change knowledge. ► With declining attention, framing disregards climate change, using local knowledge. ► We conclude that frames function as sensemaking devices selectively using knowledge. -- Abstract: Water management and particularly flood defence have a long history of collective action in low-lying countries like the Netherlands. The uncertain but potentially severe impacts of the recent climate change issue (e.g. sea level rise, extreme river discharges, salinisation) amplify the wicked and controversial character of flood safety policy issues. Policy proposals in this area generally involve drastic infrastructural works and long-term investments. They face the difficult challenge of framing problems and solutions in a publicly acceptable manner in ever changing circumstances. In this paper, we analyse and compare (1) how three key policy proposals publicly frame the flood safety issue, (2) the knowledge referred to in the framing and (3) how these frames are rhetorically connected or disconnected as statements in a long-term conversation. We find that (1) framings of policy proposals differ in the way they depict the importance of climate change, the relevant timeframe and the appropriate governance mode; (2) knowledge is selectively mobilised to underpin the different frames and (3) the frames about these proposals position themselves against the background of the previous proposals through rhetorical connections and disconnections. Finally, we discuss how this analysis hints at the importance of processes of powering and puzzling that lead to particular framings towards the public at different historical junctures

  11. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  12. Agricultural Climate Change and Wetland Agriculture Study under the Climate Change in the Sanjiang Plain

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YAN Minhua; LIU Xingtu; LI Xiujun

    2009-01-01

    With linear curvefitting, Mann-kendall method and Yamamoto method, ≥10 ℃accumulated temperature and precipitation from May to September of 6 meteorological stations (Baoqing, fujin, Jiamusi, Hegang, Jixi and Hulin) from 1978 to 2007 were used to explore 30-year agricultural climate change and trend in the Sanjiang Plain. The results showed that ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature of the 6 stations have risen by 141.0 ℃ to 287.4 ℃ when estimated by their significant linear trends (n=30, α=0.05) over the last 30 years (1978 to 2007). The rates of warming for the last 30 years range from 4.70 ℃per year to 9.58 ℃ per year. There are not significant linear trends on precipitation from May to September of the 6 stations over the last 30 years. The period of 1978 to 1998 in which ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature is lower is consistent with that in which there is more precipitation from May to September, and warming and drying period has occurred in the Sanjiang Plain since 1999. Under the background of warming and drying agricultural climate, high yield cultivation of Phragmites australis and establishment of Phragmites australis-fish (crab) symbiosis ecosystem in natural mire are the ways for reasonable use of natural wetland. The area of paddy fields has been increasing from 7.25×104 ha in 1978 to 121.2×104 ha in 2006. It is proposed that paddy field range should not be expanded blindly toward the north in the Sanjiang Plain, and chilling injury forecast and prevention should be pay attention to. In the area that the chilling injury happens frequently, the rotation between rice and other crops should be implemented. Measures, which combine drainage, store and irrigation, should be taken instead of single drainage on comprehensive control of regional low and wet croplands to ensure controlling drought and flood.

  13. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  14. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

  15. A cross-region study: climate change adaptation in Malawi's agro-based systems

    OpenAIRE

    Assa, Maganga Mulagha; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos G.; Mapemba, Lawrence D.

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture in Malawi is vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. Adaptation is identified as one of the options to abate the negative impacts of the changing climate. This study analyzed the factors influencing different climate change adaptation choices by smallholder farmers in Malawi. We sampled 900 farmers from all three regions of Malawi, using the multistage sampling procedure, study piloted in 2012. We analyzed smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptation choices with Multinom...

  16. Is the impact of future climate change on hydro-climatic conditions significant? - A climate change study for an Eastern European catchment area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavlik, Dirk; Söhl, Dennis; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The future change of climatic conditions is, among others, closely linked to future hydrological changes. One important aspect of these issues is the question of future availability of water resources. A changed climatic water balance, as indicator for potential water availability, has far-reaching consequences for the water cycle, hydrological conditions, ecology, water management, the energy business, agriculture and forestry, and for anthropogenic use of the river. We generated regional climate projections via dynamic downscaling for the catchment area of the Western Bug river in the border area of Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. The hydro-climatic conditions of the past and their projected future changes in the catchment were analyzed based on 2m-temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and climatic water balance. Up to the end of the century, the used IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 lead to warming for each month in the long-term mean, with highest warming rates in winter. Instead, precipitation does not change in the long-term yearly mean. However, the intra-annual distribution of monthly precipitation sums shifts with an increase in winter and a strong decrease in summer. Combined, this leads to a changed climatic water balance with a stronger deficit in summer and a higher gain in winter. Particular in the south-eastern part of the catchment, the summer deficit cannot be compensated within the annual cycle. It raised the question: are these changes statistically significant and thus robust for use in further impact studies? Using a significance analysis, we found, that climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation and thus the climatic water balance change is most significant for scenario A2 from 2071 to 2100. The temperature changes are significant throughout the year. For the other variables changes are most significant in the late summer months (July, August, and September) and the winter months (December, January, and February

  17. Recent Studies on Attributions of Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Zongci; DING Yihui; LUO Yong; Wang Shaowu

    2005-01-01

    Attributions of floods/cooler along the Yangtze River Valley and droughts/warmer in North China for the last 25 years have been reviewed in this paper. Both natural climate variability and human activities are considered. Some stronger evidences contributed to the natural climate variability, such as decadal and interdecadal variabilities of East Asian summer monsoon, the periodicities and transitions of rainfall and temperature changes in China, abrupt climate change, NAO, AO, AAO, ENSO, and snow cover. The signals produced by the human activities such as greenhouse gases and "brown clouds" likely play the role for the patterns. But the physical feedbacks and mechanisms still keep ambiguous and vague. More researches should be carried out in future to solve this issue.

  18. Climate for change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate for Change: Non-State Actors and the Global Politics of the Greenhouse provides a challenging explanation of the forces that have shaped the international global warming debate. Unlike existing books on the politics of climate change, this book concentrates on how non-stage actors, such as scientific, environmental and industry groups, as opposed to governmental organisations, affect political outcomes in global fora on climate change. It also provides insights in to the role of the media in influencing the agenda. The book draws on a range of analytical approaches to assess and explain the influence of these non-governmental organisations in the course of global climate change politics. The book will be of interest to all researchers and policy-makers associated with climate change, and will be used on university courses in international relations, politics and environmental studies. (Author)

  19. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  20. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  1. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  2. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  3. Undergraduates study climate change science, philosophy, and public policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bullock, Mark A.; Frodeman, Robert L.

    The National Science Foundation's (NSF) Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) program provides undergraduate students with the opportunity to participate in ongoing scientific research. Existing either as stand-alone summer programs or as supplementary components to existing NSF research grants, the REU program focuses on introducing aspiring young scientists to the delights and complexities of science. Global Climate Change and Society (GCCS) is an intensive, 8-week REU program that began a 3-year run in the summer of 2001.Developed by a philosopher at the Colorado School of Mines, and a planetary scientist at Southwest Research Institute in Boulder, Colrado, GCCS is a unique experiment in research and pedagogy that introduces students to science by using a distinctive approach. Choosing as its topic the questions surrounding global climate change, the program explores the interwoven scientific, philosophical, and public policy issues that make the climate change debate such a volatile topic in contemporary society. Last summer, the program selected 12 undergraduates through a nationally advertised competition. Student interns came from diverse academic and cultural backgrounds and included physics, philosophy and public policy majors from elite liberal arts schools, major research institutions, and mainstream state universities. The program was held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), in Boulder, Colorado (Figure 1).

  4. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century. 19 refs.; 3 figs.; 2 tabs

  5. Climate variability and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Changes of variability with climate change are likely to have a substantial impact on vegetation and society, rivaling the importance of changes in the mean values themselves. A variety of paleoclimate and future climate simulations performed with the GISS global climate model is used to assess how the variabilities of temperature and precipitation are altered as climate warms or cools. In general, as climate warms, temperature variability decreases due to reductions in the latitudinal temperature gradient and precipitation variability increases together with the intensity of the hydrologic cycle. If future climate projections are accurate, the reduction in temperature variability will be minimized by the rapid change in mean temperatures, but the hydrologic variability will be amplified by increased evapotranspiration. Greater hydrologic variability would appear to pose a potentially severe problem for the next century

  6. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    environment change, formation mechanism and prediction theory of major climate and weather disasters in China, technologies of efficient use of clean energy, energy conservation and improvement of energy efficiency, development and utilisation technology of renewable energy and new energy. The EU recognises that developing countries, such as China and India, need to strengthen their economies through industrialisation. However this needs to be achieved at the same time as protecting the environment and sustainable use of energy. The EU has committed itself to assisting developing countries to achieve their goals in four priority areas: 1) raising the policy profile of climate change; 2) support for adaption to climate change; 3) support for mitigation of climate change; and 4) capacity development. This comparative study is part of the EU funded SPRING project which seeks to understand and assess Chinese and European competencies, with the aim of facilitating greater cooperation in future climate and environment research.

  7. The GLOBE climate legislation study: a review of climate change legislation in 66 countries: fourth edition

    OpenAIRE

    Nachmany, Michal; Fankhauser, Samuel; Townshend, Terry; Collins, Murray; Landesman, Tucker; Matthews, Adam; Pavese, Carolina; Rietig, Katharina; SCHLEIFER, Philip; Setzer, Joana

    2014-01-01

    The GLOBE Climate Legislation Study is the most comprehensive audit of climate legislation across 66 countries, together responsible for around 88% of global manmade greenhouse gas emissions. It is produced by the Grantham Research Institute at the London School of Economics in collaboration with GLOBE International. The 4th edition of the Study was formally launched at the 2nd GLOBE Climate Legislation Summit held at the Senate of the United States of America and at the World Bank in Was...

  8. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fatichi, S., E-mail: simone.fatichi@ifu.baug.ethz.ch; Rimkus, S.; Burlando, P.; Bordoy, R.

    2014-09-15

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  9. Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. - Highlights:

  10. Progress in rapid climate changes and their modeling study in millennial and centennial scales

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is one of the most important aspects in paleoclimate study.It has been found that rapid climate change at millennial and centennial scales is a global phenomenon during both the glacial age and the Holocene with amplitudes typical of geological or astronomical time-scales.Simulations of glacial and Holocene climate changes have demonstrated the response of the climate system to the changes of earth orbital parameter and the importance of variations in feedbacks of ocean,vegetation,icecap and greenhouse gases.Modeling experiments suggest that the Atlantic thermohaline circulation was sensitive to the fresh water input into the North Atlantic and was closely related to the rapid climate changes during the last glacial age and the Holocene.Adopting the Earth-system models of inter mediate complexity (EMICs),CLIMBER-2,the response of East Asian climate change to Dansgaard/Oeschger and Heinrich events during the typical last glacial period (60 ka B.P.-20 ka B.P.) and impacts of ice on the Tibetan plateau on Holocene climate change were stimulated,studied and revealed.Further progress of paleoclimate modeling depends on developing finer-grid models and reconstructing more reliable boundary conditions.More attention should be paid on the study of mechanisms of abrupt climatic changes as well as regional climate changes in the background of global climate change.

  11. An Overview of BCC Climate System Model Development and Application for Climate Change Studies

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WU Tongwen; WU Fanghua; LIU Yiming; ZHANG Fang; SHI Xueli; CHU Min; ZHANG Jie; FANG Yongjie; WANG Fang; LU Yixiong; LIU Xiangwen; SONG Lianchun; WEI Min; LIU Qianxia; ZHOU Wenyan; DONG Min; ZHAO Qigeng; JI Jinjun; Laurent LI; ZHOU Mingyu; LI Weiping; WANG Zaizhi; ZHANG Hua; XIN Xiaoge; ZHANG Yanwu; ZHANG Li; LI Jianglong

    2014-01-01

    This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC-CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC-CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125◦×2.8125◦) and BCC-CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125◦×1.125◦). Both versions are fully cou-pled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC-CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase fi ve (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate pro jections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and pro jections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC-CSM1.1 and BCC-CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses in-dicate that the higher resolution in BCC-CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC-CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

  12. An overview of BCC climate system model development and application for climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Tongwen; Song, Lianchun; Li, Weiping; Wang, Zaizhi; Zhang, Hua; Xin, Xiaoge; Zhang, Yanwu; Zhang, Li; Li, Jianglong; Wu, Fanghua; Liu, Yiming; Zhang, Fang; Shi, Xueli; Chu, Min; Zhang, Jie; Fang, Yongjie; Wang, Fang; Lu, Yixiong; Liu, Xiangwen; Wei, Min; Liu, Qianxia; Zhou, Wenyan; Dong, Min; Zhao, Qigeng; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Laurent; Zhou, Mingyu

    2014-02-01

    This paper reviews recent progress in the development of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM) and its four component models (atmosphere, land surface, ocean, and sea ice). Two recent versions are described: BCC_CSM1.1 with coarse resolution (approximately 2.8125°×2.8125°) and BCC_CSM1.1(m) with moderate resolution (approximately 1.125°×1.125°). Both versions are fully coupled climate-carbon cycle models that simulate the global terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles and include dynamic vegetation. Both models well simulate the concentration and temporal evolution of atmospheric CO2 during the 20th century with anthropogenic CO2 emissions prescribed. Simulations using these two versions of the BCC_CSM model have been contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase five (CMIP5) in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). These simulations are available for use by both national and international communities for investigating global climate change and for future climate projections. Simulations of the 20th century climate using BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1(m) are presented and validated, with particular focus on the spatial pattern and seasonal evolution of precipitation and surface air temperature on global and continental scales. Simulations of climate during the last millennium and projections of climate change during the next century are also presented and discussed. Both BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1(m) perform well when compared with other CMIP5 models. Preliminary analyses indicate that the higher resolution in BCC_CSM1.1(m) improves the simulation of mean climate relative to BCC_CSM1.1, particularly on regional scales.

  13. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Georgina Morrow

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design: The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1 the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2 the context within which the policy was developed; 3 the relevant processes; and 4 the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results: The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions: The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should

  14. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  15. Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Thornton, Philip K.; Polly J Ericksen; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food syst...

  16. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  17. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    OpenAIRE

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Background: Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change.Objective: The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The ai...

  18. Sustainable development and climate change: Lessons from country studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Shukla, P.; Garg, A.

    2008-01-01

    for alternative national development policies for infrastructure and water supply that provide resilience against climate variability and climate change. Le développement durable a été proposé comme cadre pour intégrer les politiques sur le développement et le changement climatique dans les pays en développement....... L'intégration du changement climatique aux politiques de développement durable permettrait à ces pays d'accomplir leurs objectifs de développement tout en abordant le changement climatique. Un nombre de programmes de recherche ont étudié la manière de réaliser les synergies potentielles au niveau...... plupart des politiques de développement ne mèneront pas à un modèle de développement durable, vu qu'elles n'abordent pas de manière suffisante la question du changement climatique. Cependant, de bonnes opportunités existent pour intégrer les politiques en vue d'accomplir les objectifs de développement...

  19. Climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate issue is a great political and scientific challenge for several reasons: (1) There are many uncertain aspects of the climate problem, such as future emission of climate gases, the response of the climate system upon these gases, and the effects of climate changes. (2) It is probable, however, that anthropogenic emission of climate gases, deforestation etc. will cause noticeable climate changes in the future. This might be observed as increased frequency of extreme weather situations. This appears to be a greater threat than a gradual increase of temperature and precipitation. (3) Since the climate system is large and react only relatively slowly on changes in for instance the emission of climate gases, the climate problem can only be solved by means of long-term measures. (4) The climate changes may be irreversible. A rational short-term strategy is to ensure maximum flexibility, which can be done by ''slowing down'' (curtailing emissions) and by avoiding irreversible actions as much as possible. The long-term challenge is to develop an economically responsible alternative to the present fossil-based energy system that permits carbon-efficient technologies to compete on price with coal and unconventional oil and gas. Norway is in a special position by being a large exporter of fossil fuel and at the same time wanting to appear responsible in environmental matters. This combination may incur considerable expenses upon Norway and it is therefore important that environmental commitments like the Kyoto agreement can be honoured to the lowest possible cost. The costs can be minimized by: (1) minimizing the measure costs in Norway, (2) working to make the international quota price as low as possible, and (3) reducing the loss of petroleum income as much as possible. This report describes the earth's climate history, the forces behind climatic changes and what the prospects for the future look like. It also reviews what is being done to curtail the emission of

  20. Perceptions and understanding of climate change in Sri Lanka : a case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Patabendi, P. [Team for Disaster Prevention and Sustainable Development, Kaduwela (Sri Lanka)

    2000-06-01

    A citizen's organization in Sri Lanka is conducting a study on current perceptions and attitudes of climate change in a small village in southern Sri Lanka just 100 km north of the capital city of Colombo. The study involves 500 villagers, of which the majority are farmers. While not yet completed, several interesting facts are emerging from this study. The 65,610 sq. km island of Sri Lanka is divided into two distinct climate regions, the wet and dry zones. The mean temperature of the island ranges from 26 to 28 degrees C. Rainfall occurs during the southwest and northeast monsoons. The three main factors for climatic change in Sri Lanka are depressions in the Bay of Bengal, intermonsoonal rain, and deforestation. A total of 500 households were given a questionnaire which was divided into the following 4 sections: (1) socio-economic situation of the household, (2) impacts of climate change, (3) behavioural intentions for actions to reduce the advance impacts of climate change, and (4) ideas about public policies to address climate change. Group discussions were also held to allow villagers to express their voices and raise questions. The study indicates that the villagers have a comprehensive perception about climate change issues in their community (experience gained by flash floods), but have less knowledge about climate change issues in the country. Many villagers believe that political intervention is necessary for any effective climate policy to emerge.

  1. Integrated hydrological SVAT model for climate change studies in Denmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mollerup, M.; Refsgaard, J.; Sonnenborg, T. O.

    2010-12-01

    In a major Danish funded research project (www.hyacints.dk) a coupling is being established between the HIRHAM regional climate model code from Danish Meteorological Institute and the MIKE SHE distributed hydrological model code from DHI. The linkage between those two codes is a soil vegetation atmosphere transfer scheme, which is a module of MIKE SHE. The coupled model will be established for the entire country of Denmark (43,000 km2 land area) where a MIKE SHE based hydrological model already exists (Henriksen et al., 2003, 2008). The present paper presents the MIKE SHE SVAT module and the methodology used for parameterising and calibrating the MIKE SHE SVAT module for use throughout the country. As SVAT models previously typically have been tested for research field sites with comprehensive data on energy fluxes, soil and vegetation data, the major challenge lies in parameterisation of the model when only ordinary data exist. For this purpose annual variations of vegetation characteristics (Leaf Area Index (LAI), Crop height, Root depth and the surface albedo) for different combinations of soil profiles and vegetation types have been simulated by use of the soil plant atmosphere model Daisy (Hansen et al., 1990; Abrahamsen and Hansen, 2000) has been applied. The MIKE SHE SVAT using Daisy generated surface/soil properties model has been calibrated against existing data on groundwater heads and river discharges. Simulation results in form of evapotranspiration and percolation are compared to the existing MIKE SHE model and to observations. To analyse the use of the SVAT model in climate change impact assessments data from the ENSEMBLES project (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com/) have been analysed to assess the impacts on reference evapotranspiration (calculated by the Makkink and the Penmann-Monteith equations) as well as on the individual elements in the Penmann-Monteith equation (radiation, wind speed, humidity and temperature). The differences on the

  2. Data base of climatic change simulations for the impact studies. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Data used for the study of the climatic change impact on the environment and the society come from climate models and are affected by uncertainties. It is necessary to quantify the resulting errors in the models. The data base provides a comparison of simulations of climatic change in France. The final report presents the project methodology. Three projects using the distributed simulations are also presented. (A.L.B.)

  3. Climate change impact assessment of extreme precipitation on urban flash floods – case study, Aarhus, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Henrik; Sunyer Pinya, Maria Antonia; Rosbjerg, Dan;

    Climate change is expected to cause more intense extreme rainfall events, which will have a severe impact on the risk of flash floods in urban areas. An assessment study was performed for the city of Aarhus, Denmark, analysing different methods of statistical downscaling of climate model...... derived from the estimated intensity-duration-frequency curves....... projections for estimation of changes in extreme rainfall characteristics. Climate model projections from 20 regional climate models (RCM) from the ENSEMBLES data archive were used in the analysis. Two different estimation methods were applied, using, respectively, a direct estimation of the changes...

  4. Communicating for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from a Case Study with Nature-Based Tour Operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timm, K.; Sparrow, E. B.; Pettit, E. C.; Trainor, S. F.; Taylor, K.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing temperatures are projected to have a positive effect on the length of Alaska's tourism season, but the natural attractions that tourism relies on, such as glaciers, wildlife, fish, or other natural resources, may change. In order to continue to derive benefits from these resources, nature-based tour operators may have to adapt to these changes, and communication is an essential, but poorly understood, component of the climate change adaptation process. The goal of this study was to determine how to provide useful climate change information to nature-based tour operators by answering the following questions: 1. What environmental changes do nature-based tour operators perceive? 2. How are nature-based tour operators responding to climate and environmental change? 3. What climate change information do nature-based tour operators need? To answer these questions, twenty-four nature-based tour operators representing 20 different small and medium sized businesses in Juneau, Alaska were interviewed. The results show that many of Juneau's nature-based tour operators are observing, responding to, and in some cases, actively planning for further changes in the environment. The types of responses tended to vary depending on the participants' certainty in climate change and the perceived risks to their organization. Using these two factors, this study proposes a framework to classify climate change responses for the purpose of generating meaningful information and communication processes that promote adaptation and build adaptive capacity. During the course of the study, several other valuable lessons were learned about communicating about adaptation. The results of this study demonstrate that science communication research has an important place in the practice of promoting and fostering climate change adaptation. While the focus of this study was tour operators, the lessons learned may be valuable to other organizations striving to engage unique groups in climate

  5. The evolution of climate change impact studies on hydrology and water resources in California

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vicuna, S. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, 612 Davis Hall, Mail Code 1710, Berkeley, CA 94720-1710 (United States); Dracup, J.A. [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, 625 Davis Hall, Mail Code 1710, Berkeley, CA 94720-1710 (United States)

    2007-06-15

    Potential global climate change impacts on hydrology pose a threat to water resources systems throughout the world. The California water system is especially vulnerable to global warming due to its dependence on mountain snow accumulation and the snowmelt process. Since 1983, more than 60 studies have investigated climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in California. These studies can be categorized in three major fields: (1) Studies of historical trends of streamflow and snowpack in order to determine if there is any evidence of climate change in the geophysical record; (2) Studies of potential future predicted effects of climate change on streamflow and; (3) Studies that use those predicted changes in natural runoff to determine their economic, ecologic, or institutional impacts. In this paper we review these studies with an emphasis on methodological procedures. We provide for each category of studies a summary of significant conclusions and potential areas for future work.

  6. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... 2014 Fact sheets Features Commentaries 2014 Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – ...

  7. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  8. The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Köplin

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Changes in land cover alter the water balance components of a catchment, due to strong interactions between soils, vegetation and the atmosphere. Therefore, hydrological climate impact studies should also integrate scenarios of associated land cover change. To reflect two severe climate-induced changes in land cover, we applied scenarios of glacier retreat and forest cover increase that were derived from the temperature signals of the climate scenarios used in this study. The climate scenarios consist of ten regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project; their respective temperature and precipitation deltas are used to run a hydrological model. The relative importance of each of the three types of scenarios (climate, glacier, forest is assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA. Altogether, 15 mountainous catchments in Switzerland are analysed, exhibiting different degrees of glaciation during the control period (0–51% and different degrees of forest cover increase under scenarios of change (12–55% of the catchment area. The results show that even an extreme change in forest cover is negligible with respect to changes in runoff, but it is crucial as soon as evaporation or soil moisture is concerned. For the latter two variables, the relative impact of forest change is proportional to the magnitude of its change. For changes that concern 35% of the catchment area or more, the effect of forest change on summer evapotranspiration is equally or even more important than the climate signal. For catchment with a glaciation of 10% or more in the control period, the glacier retreat significantly determines summer and annual runoff. The most important source of uncertainty in hydrological climate impact studies is the climate scenario, though, and it is highly recommended to apply an ensemble of climate scenarios in impact studies. The results presented here are valid for the climatic region they were tested for, i.e. a humid, mid

  9. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures are rising and precipitation regimes are changing at global scale. How ecosystem will be affected by global climatic change is dependent on the responses of plants and plant communities. This thesis focuses on how climate change affects heathland......) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... between C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in the same climate change experiment and 5) a study where we compared the responses of shrubland plant communities to experimental warming and recurrent experimental droughts in seven climate change experiments across Europe. Heathland vegetation dynamics are slow...

  10. Climate change influence on POPs distribution and fate: a case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalla Valle, M; Codato, E; Marcomini, A

    2007-04-01

    Climate change has the potential of affecting the behaviour and distribution of organic pollutants, including POPs. Direct effects of climate change, like temperature increase, modification of wind and precipitation patterns, sea level rise, snow and ice cover, may be very effective in altering the partitioning of POPs among the environmental compartments. Other consequences of future climate scenarios may imply the alteration of degradation rates, soil properties (and hence land use), air-particle partitioning of chemicals and so forth. A case study is here presented to illustrate the major implications of climate change on the long term at the local scale. A dynamic multimedia model was applied to selected PCB and PCDD/F congeners to simulate the effects of climate change on their distribution and fluxes over the next 50 y in the Venice Lagoon (Italy). Different climate change scenarios were tested, finding noticeable variations in POPs concentration even for minor environmental changes. PCBs and PCDFs environmental concentrations may differ by a factor two in a moderate climate change scenario, compared to a situation with stable climate over the next 50 y. However, model results also suggest that if global warming may have the potential of reducing the environmental levels of these chemicals, it would probably enhance their mobility and hence their potential for long range atmospheric transport.

  11. Our changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author presents an overview of the changing climate. Attention is focused on the following: meteorology; weather; climate anomalies; changes in atmospheric composition and global warming; ozone; mathematical models; and climate and politics. In its conclusion, it asks researchers to stay out of a game in which, ultimately, neither science nor politics stands to gain anything

  12. Mathematics of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Halstadtrø, Ida

    2013-01-01

    Mathematics in climate research is rarely mentioned in the everyday conversations or in the media when talking about climate changes. This thesis therefore focus on the central role mathematics plays in climate research, through describing the different models used in predicting future weather and climate. In Chapter 1, a general introduction to climate, its components and feedbacks, and today's status is given. Chapter 2 concentrates on the dynamical models represented by ordinary differenti...

  13. Climate change, poverty and agricultural resource degradation: a case study of district d.g. khan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global development agendas are now being bonded with adaptation to climate change. Sustainable biodiversity and community adaptation to climate change are closely associated as depletion of natural resources adversely affects the living standard of people. Rapid climatic changes and intervention to regulate water resources in Indus delta of Pakistan have put the lives of millions of people residing near the Indus river belt at the stake of climate change. Therefore, this study was designed to inquire the socio-economic conditions of the people residing near the Indus river bank and the perceived impact of climate change on river belt agricultural resources specifically in district D. G. Khan. Based on primary data study employed univariate and bivariate analysis which suggested flood, wind storm and temperature as the significant climate change parameters affecting the land fertility, forest and fisheries. The Foster Greer and Thorbeck technique for calculating the poverty indicated that majority (82%) of population was below poverty line and most of them entirely depend on river belt agricultural resources which were found to be depleting due to rapid climate change. (author)

  14. Non-linearity dynamics in ecosystem response to climate change: Case studies and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, V.R.; Wilcox, D.A.; Stottlemyer, R.; Barrow, W.; Fagre, D.; Baron, J.; Nielsen, J.L.; Allen, C.D.; Peterson, D.L.; Ruggerone, G.; Doyle, T.

    2005-01-01

    Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate cna lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

  15. Climate Change Preparedness: A Knowledge and Attitudes Study in Southern Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edema Ojomo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change is projected to adversely impact freshwater resources, and in many settings these impacts are already apparent. In Nigeria, these impacts can be especially severe because of limited adaptive capacity. Understanding the knowledge and attitudes of current and future Nigerian decision-makers is important to preparing Nigeria for climate change impacts. This paper examines the knowledge and attitudes of university students and government officials about the causes, effects, and priority given to climate change in Nigeria. Paper surveys were distributed to 379 study participants in Akwa Ibom and Lagos states of Nigeria. The findings reveal that approximately 90% of study participants believe that human activities are a significant cause of climate change, with no significant difference between ministry officials’ and students’ responses. Participants were less knowledgeable about the effects of climate change on Nigeria as a whole, but more aware of impacts relevant to Southern Nigeria, where study sites were located. Personal experience seemed to play a role in the knowledge and attitudes of respondents. Due to the varied climate of the country, campaigns to ensure comprehensive knowledge of climate change impacts to the entire country may be helpful.

  16. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  17. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  18. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture & Forestry USDA Resources Climate Change Program Office Agency Activities Climate Change Blogs Case Studies USDA Climate Hubs Through this ...

  19. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. Engels; B. van Geel

    2012-01-01

    Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of t

  20. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  1. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    OpenAIRE

    Engels Stefan; van Geel Bas

    2012-01-01

    Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the ef...

  2. Lay representations on climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Cabecinhas, Rosa; Lázaro, Alexandra; Carvalho, Anabela

    2006-01-01

    Lay representations on climate change were mapped via the free-word association method in two pilot studies. Participants were asked to generate words associated to “the big problems faced by humankind nowadays” (1st study) and to “climate change” (2nd study). Climate change was not spontaneously evoked by the participants in the first study: pollution was among the top 10 problems, but references to other environmental issues were very low. In the second study, climate change was consid...

  3. Development, Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R. C.; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P. R.

    2009-05-01

    India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

  4. The influence of model structure on groundwater recharge rates in climate-change impact studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeck, Christian; Brunner, Philip; Hunkeler, Daniel

    2016-08-01

    Numerous modeling approaches are available to provide insight into the relationship between climate change and groundwater recharge. However, several aspects of how hydrological model choice and structure affect recharge predictions have not been fully explored, unlike the well-established variability of climate model chains—combination of global climate models (GCM) and regional climate models (RCM). Furthermore, the influence on predictions related to subsoil parameterization and the variability of observation data employed during calibration remain unclear. This paper compares and quantifies these different sources of uncertainty in a systematic way. The described numerical experiment is based on a heterogeneous two-dimensional reference model. Four simpler models were calibrated against the output of the reference model, and recharge predictions of both reference and simpler models were compared to evaluate the effect of model structure on climate-change impact studies. The results highlight that model simplification leads to different recharge rates under climate change, especially under extreme conditions, although the different models performed similarly under historical climate conditions. Extreme weather conditions lead to model bias in the predictions and therefore must be considered. Consequently, the chosen calibration strategy is important and, if possible, the calibration data set should include climatic extremes in order to minimise model bias introduced by the calibration. The results strongly suggest that ensembles of climate projections should be coupled with ensembles of hydrogeological models to produce credible predictions of future recharge and with the associated uncertainties.

  5. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation. A case study of the role of homeowners in the process of climate change adaptation in Copenhagen

    OpenAIRE

    Nina Baron; Lars Kjerulf Petersen

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete ‘Sustainable Urban Drainages System’ (SUDS) project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study, thereby investigating multiple understandings of urban climate change adaptation. Several different perspectives are identified with regard to what are and what will become the main clim...

  6. Urban Growth and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2008-01-01

    Between 1950 and 2030, the share of the world's population that lives in cities is predicted to grow from 30% to 60%. This urbanization has consequences for the likelihood of climate change and for the social costs that climate change will impose on the world's quality of life. This paper examines how urbanization affects greenhouse gas production, and it studies how urbanites in the developed and developing world will adapt to the challenges posed by climate change.

  7. US country studies program: Support for climate change studies, national plans, and technology assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the objectives of the next phase of the U.S. Country Studies Program which was launched in support of the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). The next phases of this program aim to: assist countries in preparing Climate Change Action plans; support technology assessments and development of technology initiatives; enhance exchange of information and expertise in support of FCCC. The program offers support for these processes in the form of handbooks which have been published to aid in preparing action plans, and to provide information on methane, forestry, and energy technologies. In addition an array of training workshops have been and are scheduled to offer hands on instruction to participants, expert advice is available from trained personnel, and modeling tools are available to aid in development of action plans.

  8. Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newhouse, Kay Berglund

    2007-01-01

    In this article, the author discusses how global warming makes the leap from the headlines to the classroom with thought-provoking science experiments. To teach her fifth-grade students about climate change, the author starts with a discussion of the United States' local climate. They extend this idea to contrast the local climate with others,…

  9. The MIT IGSM-CAM framework for uncertainty studies in global and regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Scott, J. R.; Sokolov, A. P.; Forest, C. E.; Schlosser, C. A.

    2011-12-01

    The MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) version 2.3 is an intermediate complexity fully coupled earth system model that allows simulation of critical feedbacks among its various components, including the atmosphere, ocean, land, urban processes and human activities. A fundamental feature of the IGSM2.3 is the ability to modify its climate parameters: climate sensitivity, net aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate. As such, the IGSM2.3 provides an efficient tool for generating probabilistic distribution functions of climate parameters using optimal fingerprint diagnostics. A limitation of the IGSM2.3 is its zonal-mean atmosphere model that does not permit regional climate studies. For this reason, the MIT IGSM2.3 was linked to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 3 and new modules were developed and implemented in CAM in order to modify its climate sensitivity and net aerosol forcing to match that of the IGSM. The IGSM-CAM provides an efficient and innovative framework to study regional climate change where climate parameters can be modified to span the range of uncertainty and various emissions scenarios can be tested. This paper presents results from the cloud radiative adjustment method used to modify CAM's climate sensitivity. We also show results from 21st century simulations based on two emissions scenarios (a median "business as usual" scenario where no policy is implemented after 2012 and a policy scenario where greenhouse-gas are stabilized at 660 ppm CO2-equivalent concentrations by 2100) and three sets of climate parameters. The three values of climate sensitivity chosen are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the observed 20th century climate change with simulations by the IGSM with a wide range of climate parameters values. The associated aerosol forcing values were chosen to ensure a good agreement of the simulations

  10. Embracing Uncertainty: A Case Study Examination of How Climate Change is Shifting Water Utility Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaatz, L.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change has emerged as one of the greatest challenges facing water utilities' planning for the future, adding a new source and level of complexity that is forcing many agencies to re-examine their decision-making processes. A significant barrier for many agencies is figuring out how to consider highly uncertain climate information and move away from deterministic thinking to make climate-informed decisions. To provide water professionals with practical and relevant information, the Water Utility Climate Alliance teamed up with the American Water Works Association, in coordination with the Water Research Foundation and Association of Metropolitan Water Agencies, to develop a white paper sharing insights into how and why water agencies are modifying planning and decision-making processes. The 13 case studies presented illustrate the variety of ways in which utilities are incorporating climate change into planning, from immediate operational decisions, to capital planning and asset management, to long-term supply planning.

  11. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Western US Electricity System: A Scoping Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coughlin, Katie; Goldman, Charles

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of the possible physical impacts of climate change on the electric power system, and how these impacts could be incorporated into resource planning in the Western United States. While many aspects of climate change and energy have been discussed in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic review of the relationship between specific physical effects and the quantitative analyses that are commonly used in planning studies. The core of the problem is to understand how the electric system is vulnerable to physical weather risk, and how to make use of information from climate models to characterize the way these risks may evolve over time, including a treatment of uncertainty. In this paper, to provide the necessary technical background in climate science, we present an overview of the basic physics of climate and explain some of the methodologies used in climate modeling studies, particularly the importance of emissions scenarios. We also provide a brief survey of recent climate-related studies relevant to electric system planning in the Western US. To define the institutional context, we discuss the core elements of the resource and reliability planning processes used currently by utilities and by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. To illustrate more precisely how climate-related risk could be incorporated into modeling exercises, we discuss three idealized examples. Overall, we argue that existing methods of analysis can and should be extended to encompass the uncertainties related to future climate. While the focus here is on risk related to physical impacts, the same principles apply to a consideration of how future climate change policy decisions might impact the design and functioning of the electric grid. We conclude with some suggestions and recommendations on how to begin developing this approach within the existing electric system planning framework for the West.

  12. Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R.; Harrington, Constance A.; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Petter J.; St. Clair, Bradley

    2016-01-01

    Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (“forcing”) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (“chilling”) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, towards lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm

  13. Revisiting climate changes. Isotope studies open scientific windows to the past

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Earlier this year, scientists warned that 'an increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system'. The conclusion came from the third assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Today, it is widely accepted that recent warning is largely a product of enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere derived from post-industrial combustion of fossil fuels and biomass energy sources. However, great uncertainty remains regarding the causal relationships between specific parameters and climate phenomena, and regarding the impacts of climate change on the earth's water cycle. The science of climate change is dynamic. The IAEA contributes to studies via coordination of climate research, participation and support for international scientific programmes, and dissemination of isotope technology and applications. The third quadrennial scientific gathering on the use of isotopes for studying environmental change was held at the IAEA in Vienna 23-27 April 2001. The Conference - attended by 150 experts from 38 countries and seven international organizations - served as an important forum for presentation of results, discussion of ideas and concepts, establishment of international collaboration, and identification of avenues for future research. Selected highlights of issues discussed include: Isotopes are being used as validation tools for predicting impacts of deforestation of the Amazon Basin and for examining the past isotope signals of El Nino events; Isotope signatures in ice cores from low-latitude environments are showing similar temperature signals to polar ice cores,suggesting widespread (global) changes in the past; Isotopes are being used in the World Ocean Circulation Experiment to trace the movement, mixing and residence time of oceanic circulation patterns. Changes in ocean circulation are one of the most important factors controlling the variability of the

  14. Climate change, water, and agriculture: a study of two contrasting regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirilenko, A.; Dronin, N.; Zhang, X.

    2009-12-01

    We present a study of potential impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in two contrasting regions, the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia and the Northern Great Plains in the United States. The Aral Sea basin is one of the most anthropogenically modified areas of the world; it is also a zone of a water-related ecological crisis. We concentrate on studying water security of five countries in the region, which inherit their water regulation from the planned economy of USSR. Water management was targeted at maximizing agricultural output through diverting the river flow into an extensive and largely ineffective network of irrigation canals. The current water crisis is largely due to human activity; however the region is also strongly impacted by the climate. Climate change will contribute to water problems, escalating irrigation demand during the drought period, and increasing water loss with evaporation. The future of the countries of the Aral Sea basin then depends on both the regional scenario of water management policy and a global scenario of climate change, and is integrated with global socioeconomic scenarios. We formulate a set of regional policy scenarios (“Business as Usual”, “Falling Behind” and “Closing the Gap”) and demonstrate how each of them corresponds to IPCC SRES scenarios, the latter used as an input to the General Circulation Models (GCMs). Then we discuss the relative effectiveness of the introduced scenarios for mitigating water problems in the region, taking into account the adaptation through changing water demand for agriculture. Finally, we introduce the results of multimodel analysis of GCM climate projections, especially in relation to the change in precipitation and frequency of droughts, and discuss the impact of climate change on future development of the region. In the same way as the Aral Sea basin, the Northern Great Plains is expected to be a region heavily impacted by climate change. We concentrate on

  15. Civil war, climate change and development: A scenario study for Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Devitt, Conor; Tol, Richard S.J.

    2010-01-01

    We construct a model of development, civil war, and climate change. There are multiple interactions. Economic growth reduces the probability of civil war and the vulnerability to climate change. Climate change increases the probability of civil war. The impacts of climate change, civil war, and civil war in the neighbouring countries reduce economic growth. The model has two potential poverty traps ? a climate-change-induced one and a civil-war-induced one ? and the two poverty traps may rein...

  16. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  17. The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Ortiz, Ramon A.; Markandya, Anil

    2011-01-01

    Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the bu......Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall...... risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable...

  18. Climate and Global Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

  19. The changing climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A historical outline of climate changes is followed by a discussion of the problem of predictability. The main section goes into anthropogenic changes of the local (urban) and global climate, with particular regard to the greenhouse effect and its consequences in terms of human action. The author points out that today's climate problems should be discussed in a subject-centered and objective manner. (KW)

  20. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  1. NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

    2008-12-01

    Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

  2. A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile

    2016-04-01

    In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station relocations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important

  3. A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.

    2011-12-01

    Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used

  4. Engaging Students in Climate Change Science and Communication through a Multi-disciplinary Study Abroad Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, L. A.; Polk, J.; Strenecky, B.

    2014-12-01

    The implications of the climate change phenomenon are far-reaching, and will impact every person on Earth. These problems will be complex, and will require leaders well-versed in interdisciplinary learning and international understanding. To employ a multi-disciplinary approach to studying the impact climate change is having in the world in which we live, a team of 57 Western Kentucky University (WKU) faculty, staff, and students participated in a study abroad program to seven ports in the North Sea and North Atlantic, including three ports in Iceland, onboard the Semester at Sea ship, MV Explorer. This program combined interdisciplinary learning, service learning, and international understanding toward the goal of preparing the leaders of tomorrow with the skills to address climate change challenges. Together, the group learned how climate change affects the world from varied academic perspectives, and how more often than not these perspectives are closely interrelated. Courses taught during the experience related to climate change science and communication, economics, future trends, and K-12 education. Each student also participated in a The $100 Solution™ service-learning course. While in port, each class engaged in a discipline-specific activities related to the climate change topic, while at sea students participated in class lectures, engaged in shipboard lectures by international experts in their respective fields, and participated in conversations with lifelong learners onboard the ship. A culminating point of the study abroad experience was a presentation by the WKU students to over 100 persons from the University of Akureyri in Akureyri, Iceland, representatives of neighboring Icelandic communities, environmental agencies, and tourism bureaus about what they had learned about climate change during their travels. By forging this relationship, students were able to share their knowledge, which in turn gave them a deeper understanding of the issues they

  5. Impacts of climate change on wind energy resources in France: a regionalization study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this work, we study the impact of climate change on surface winds in France and draw conclusions concerning wind energy resources. Because of their coarse spatial resolution, climate models cannot properly reproduce the spatial variability of surface winds. Thus, 2 down-scaling methods are developed in order to regionalize an ensemble of climate scenarios: a statistical method based on weather typing and a statistic-dynamical method that resorts to high resolution mesoscale modelling. By 2050, significant but relatively small changes are depicted with, in particular, a decrease of the wind speed in the southern and an increase in the northern regions of France. The use of other down-scaling methods enables us to study several uncertainty sources: it appears that most of the uncertainty is due to the climate models. (author)

  6. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  7. Struggle against climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This document first proposes a presentation of the cross-cutting policy defined for the struggle against climate change. It notably presents its various programs. It describes the implemented strategy which aims at reducing on a short term greenhouse gas emissions with the available technologies, at making the climate challenge a driver for economic competitiveness, at developing the knowledge on climatic change and at preparing the necessary adaptation measures, and at stating on the international scene the French commitment and its dynamic role in front of the climate challenge

  8. The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Gang; Webber, Heidi; Hoffmann, Holger; Wolf, Joost; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

    2015-11-01

    This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1) ). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.

  9. Cloud physics considerations in global climate change studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Twomey, S.

    1995-09-01

    In predicting the global warming due to a doubling of CO{sub 2} it is important not to only evaluate the net effect of all the known feedback mechanisms, but to estimate the sensitivity to each. In other words, the partial derivatives as well as the total derivatives should be estimated. In order for relative humidity to remain constant, the liquid water content must be proportional to the cube root of the saturation vapor pressure and it is difficult to explain why this should be true. The point is that sensitivities to particles are as big as the direct carbon dioxide doubling effect, so that our uncertainty about which scenario is most realistic has important implications for our global change predictions. 2 figs.

  10. Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

    2014-08-01

    This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

  11. Using large-scale climate indices in climate change ecology studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads Cedergreen; Post, Eric

    2004-01-01

    Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns......Ecological responses, El Niño 3.4, Long-term climate variability, North Atlantic Oscillation, North Pacific Oscillation, Teleconnection patterns...

  12. Climate Change and Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Nibleus, Kerstin; Lundin, Rickard

    2010-01-01

    Planet Earth has experienced repeated changes of its climate throughout time. Periods warmer than today as well as much colder, during glacial episodes, have alternated. In our time, rapid population growth with increased demand for natural resources and energy, has made society increasingly vulnerable to environmental changes, both natural and those caused by man; human activity is clearly affecting the radiation balance of the Earth. In the session “Climate Change and Mitigation” the speake...

  13. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  14. International Symposium on Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems, and Climate Change Studies. Presentations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Human activities have had a far-reaching impact on the aquatic environments - both marine and freshwater systems. The protection of these systems against further deterioration and the promotion of sustainable use are vital. In order to deepen understanding about the main processes affecting the present situation, as well as possible developments in the future, further investigation is required. The oceans play a major role in climate change, for example, and ocean acidification by increased CO2 release is one major threat to the world's oceans. Isotope methods can play a critical role in identifying and quantifying key processes within aquatic environments. Addressing the problems of global water resources has become a matter of urgency. Water resources are subject to multiple pressures for various reasons, including increasing populations, climate change, rising food and energy costs, the global economic crisis and pollutant loading. Isotope hydrology provides the unique and critical tools required to address complex water problems and helps managers and policy makers understand the closely intertwined relationship between water resources and the various pressures affecting them, as well as the issue of sustainability. The symposium will be an important forum for the exchange of knowledge on the present state of marine and freshwater environments, use of isotopes in water resources investigations and management, and climate change studies. The meeting will involve leading scientists in the field of climate change and hydrology, as well as representatives from other United Nations bodies and international organizations that focus on climate change and other important environmental issues. TOPICS: The role of isotopes in understanding and modelling climate change, marine ecosystems and the water cycle; Carbon dioxide sequestration and related aspects of the carbon cycle, such as ocean acidification; Isotopes in groundwater flow modelling for large aquifers

  15. Assessment of climate change impact on runoff and peak flow: a case study on Klang watershed in West Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Kabiri, Reza

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is a consequence of changing in climate on environment over the worldwide. The increase in developmental activities and Greenhouse Gases (GHGS) put a strain on environment, resulting in increased use of fuel resources. The consequence of such an emission to the atmosphere exacerbates climate pattern. There are numerous Climate Change Downscaling studies in coarse resolution, which have largely centred on employing the dynamic approaches, and in most of these investigations, the...

  16. Biodiversity and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biological diversity or biodiversity is crucial for ecological stability including regulation of climate change, recreational and medicinal use; and scientific advancement. Kenya like other developing countries, especially, those in Sub-Saharan Africa, will continue to depend greatly on her biodiversity for present and future development. This important resource must, therefore be conserved. This chapter presents an overview of Kenya's biodiversity; its importance and initiatives being undertaken for its conservation; and in detail, explores issues of climate change and biodiversity, concentrating on impacts of climate change

  17. Witnesses of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having evoked the process of climate change, the effect of greenhouse gas emissions, the evolution of average temperatures in France since 1900, and indicated the various interactions and impacts of climate change regarding air quality, water resources, food supply, degradation and loss of biodiversity, deforestation, desertification, this publication, while quoting various testimonies (from a mountain refuge guardian, a wine maker, a guide in La Reunion, an IFREMER bio-statistician engineer, and a representative of health professionals), describes the various noticed impacts of climate change on the environment in mountain chains, on agriculture, on sea level rise, on overseas biodiversity, and on health

  18. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  19. Active Amplification of the Terrestrial Albedo to Mitigate Climate Change: An Exploratory Study

    CERN Document Server

    Hamwey, R M

    2005-01-01

    This study explores the potential to enhance the reflectance of solar insolation by the human settlement and grassland components of the Earth's terrestrial surface as a climate change mitigation measure. Preliminary estimates derived using a static radiative transfer model indicate that such efforts could amplify the planetary albedo enough to offset the current global annual average level of radiative forcing caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases by as much as 30 percent or 0.76 W/m2. Terrestrial albedo amplification may thus extend, by about 25 years, the time available to advance the development and use of low-emission energy conversion technologies which ultimately remain essential to mitigate long-term climate change. However, additional study is needed to confirm the estimates reported here and to assess the economic and environmental impacts of active land-surface albedo amplification as a climate change mitigation measure.

  20. Climate change governance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Knieling, Joerg [HafenCity Univ. Hamburg (Germany). Urban Planning and Regional Development; Leal Filho, Walter (eds.) [HAW Hamburg (Germany). Research and Transfer Centre Applications of Life Science

    2013-07-01

    Climate change is a cause for concern both globally and locally. In order for it to be tackled holistically, its governance is an important topic needing scientific and practical consideration. Climate change governance is an emerging area, and one which is closely related to state and public administrative systems and the behaviour of private actors, including the business sector, as well as the civil society and non-governmental organisations. Questions of climate change governance deal both with mitigation and adaptation whilst at the same time trying to devise effective ways of managing the consequences of these measures across the different sectors. Many books have been produced on general matters related to climate change, such as climate modelling, temperature variations, sea level rise, but, to date, very few publications have addressed the political, economic and social elements of climate change and their links with governance. This book will address this gap. Furthermore, a particular feature of this book is that it not only presents different perspectives on climate change governance, but it also introduces theoretical approaches and brings these together with practical examples which show how main principles may be implemented in practice.

  1. Climate change and climate variability impacts on rainfed agricultural activities and possible adaptation measures. A Mexican case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Conde, C.; Ferrer, R. [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico Circuito Exterior, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico)]. E-mail: e-mail: conde@servidor.unam.mx; Orozco, S. [Escuela de Agrobiologia, Universidad Autonoma de Tlaxcala, Tlaxcala (Mexico)

    2006-07-15

    Climate extreme events (such as those associated to strong El Nino events) highly affect Mexican agriculture, since more than sixty percent of it is rainfed. The basic crop cultivated is maize, which is still the main source of nutrients for a large portion of the rural population in the country. Within the project Capacity Building for Stage II Adaptation to Climate Change in Central America, Mexico and Cuba, we analyze the strategies developed by maize producers in the central region of the country to cope with climatic adverse events. Impact on rainfed maize due to climate variability and climate change conditions are studied using a crop simulation model. Several adaptation measures can be evaluated using that model. However, the effect of other stressors must be considered in an assessment of the adaptive capacity of small farmers to climate variability and change. Key stakeholders' involvement in the region helped us to decide which of the adaptive measures could be viable under the current conditions and under future climatic conditions. The construction of greenhouses, the use of compost, and dripping irrigation, were some of the techniques selected with the participation of the stakeholders. The enthusiastic responses to these measures allow us to consider that they can prevail in the future, under climate change conditions. However, the adaptation to climate change includes -besides the stated techniques- the generation of the capacities to cope with climatic adverse events, that is, to enhance the adaptive capacities to climate change among the key stakeholders. [Spanish] Los eventos climaticos extremos (como los asociados con eventos fuertes de El Nino) afectan de manera importante a la agricultura mexicana, ya que mas del sesenta por ciento de ella es de temporal, esto es, depende fundamentalmente de una buena temporada de lluvias para producir. El cultivo que se siembra es basicamente maiz, que todavia es la principal fuente de nutrientes para

  2. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  3. The Preliminary Study of Climate Change Impact on Rice Production and Economic in Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Noppol Arunrat; Nathsuda Pumijumnong

    2015-01-01

    Climate change affects crop production in two ways: changes in GDP and population and changes in climatevariables, especially temperature and precipitation. This study aims to investigate preliminary effects of climatechange impacts on Thailand’s rice production, consumption, and export capacity by integrated EPIC model andthe world and Thai rice market models. Therefore, the Biophysical process model (EPIC model) and Economicprocesses model are employed as the research methodology of this st...

  4. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  5. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  6. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    Cities rather than national governments take the lead in acting on climate change. Several cities have voluntarily created climate change plans to prevent and prepare for the effects of climate change. In the literature climate change has been examined as a multilevel governance area taking place...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... entrepreneurs create windows for action through the establishment of local networks. The thesis contributes knowledge on the constraints of the internal integration process in city governments. It provides explanations of why these constraints occur, and how officials seek to overcome them. The thesis provides...

  7. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  8. Images of climate change - a pilot study of young people's perceptions of ICT-based climate visualization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ballantyne, Anne Gammelgaard; Wibeck, Victoria; Neset, Tina-Simone

    2016-01-01

    Climate change can be difficult for laypeople to make sense of, because of its complexity, the uncertainties involved and its distant impacts. Research has identified the potentials of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) for visualizing and communicating climate change to lay audiences...... and thus addressing these communication challenges. However, little research has focused on how ICT-based visualization affects audiences’ understandings of climate change. Employing a semiotic framework and through a combination of focus group interviews and mindmap exercises, we investigated how Swedish...... to add interactive elements should be further explored, as interaction has the potential to influence meaning-making processes. In addition, audiences’ preconceptions of climate change influence their interpretations of climate messages, which may function as a constraint to climate communication....

  9. Climate change impact on freshwater resources in a deltaic environment: A groundwater modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matiatos, Ioannis; Alexopoulos, John D.; Panagopoulos, Andreas; Nastos, Panagiotis T.; Kotsopoulos, Spyros; Ghionis, George; Poulos, Serafim

    2016-04-01

    Climate change is expected to affect the hydrological cycle, altering seawater level and groundwater recharge to coastal aquifers with various other associated impacts on natural ecosystems and human activities. As the sustainable use of groundwater resources is a great challenge for many countries in the world, groundwater modeling has become a very useful and well established tool for studying groundwater management problems. This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the groundwater of the deltaic plain of River Pinios (Central Greece). Geophysical data processing indicates that the phreatic aquifer extends mainly in the central and northern parts of the region. A one-layer transient groundwater flow and contaminant mass transport model of the aquifer system is calibrated and validated. Impacts of climate change were evaluated by incorporating the estimated recharge input and sea level change of different future scenarios within the simulation models. The most noticeable and consistent result of the climate change impact simulations is a prominent sea water intrusion in the coastal aquifer mainly as a result of sea level change which underlines the need for a more effective planning of environmental measures.

  10. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA Climate Change Initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legeais, JeanFrancois; Cazenave, Anny; Ablain, Michael; Larnicol, Gilles; Benveniste, Jerome; Johannessen, Johnny; Timms, Gary; Andersen, Ole; Cipollini, Paolo; Roca, Monica; Rudenko, Sergei; Fernandes, Joana; Balmaseda, Magdalena; Quartly, Graham; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Meyssignac, Benoit; Scharffenberg, Martin

    2016-04-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. We will firstly present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product validation, performed by several groups of the ocean and climate modeling community. At last, new altimeter standards have been developed and the best one have been recently selected in order to produce a full

  11. Accurately measuring sea level change from space: an ESA climate change initiative for MSL closure budget studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legeais, JeanFrancois; Benveniste, Jérôme

    2016-07-01

    Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change and variability. Sea level integrates the ocean warming, mountain glaciers and ice sheet melting. Understanding the sea level variability and changes implies an accurate monitoring of the sea level variable at climate scales, in addition to understanding the ocean variability and the exchanges between ocean, land, cryosphere, and atmosphere. That is why Sea Level is one of the Essential Climate Variables (ECV) selected in the frame of the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program. It aims at providing long-term monitoring of the sea level ECV with regular updates, as required for climate studies. The program is now in its second phase of 3 year (following phase I during 2011-2013). The objectives are firstly to involve the climate research community, to refine their needs and collect their feedbacks on product quality. And secondly to develop, test and select the best algorithms and standards to generate an updated climate time series and to produce and validate the Sea Level ECV product. This will better answer the climate user needs by improving the quality of the Sea Level products and maintain a sustain service for an up-to-date production. This has led to the production of a first version of the Sea Level ECV which has benefited from yearly extensions and now covers the period 1993-2014. Within phase II, new altimeter standards have been developed and tested in order to reprocess the dataset with the best standards for climate studies. The reprocessed ECV will be released in summer 2016. We will present the main achievements of the ESA CCI Sea Level Project. On the one hand, the major steps required to produce the 22 years climate time series are briefly described: collect and refine the user requirements, development of adapted algorithms for climate applications and specification of the production system. On the other hand, the product characteristics are described as well as the results from product

  12. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  13. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  14. Multi-scale climate change modeling study over the Greater Horn of Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowden, Jared Heath

    There has been limited regional climate modeling (RCM) studies of climate change over the Greater Horn of Africa because of challenges in evaluating model performance with a limited observational network. The ultimate goal of this study was to provide a RCM climate change projection for the GHA. RCM climate change projections are particularly important for the GHA because the surface boundary forcing varies on horizontal scales not resolved by the IPCC General Circulation Models (GCMs) used for current regional climate change assessment. This study adopted several steps to provide optimal RCM projections and understand the uncertainty and added value of the RCM projections. These steps include the following: (1) model customization; (2) multi-year continuous RCM simulation with Reanalysis ICBCs and a single GCM; (3) GCM mean error; (4) A2 GCM projections; (5) A2 RCM projections; (6) modified ICBC approach. The RCM was customized with particular interest in precipitation processes. The customization found that the convective scheme of MIT-Emanuel in conjunction with reducing the relative humidity for threshold for cloud formation provided the most realistic simulation in terms of spatial distribution, convective partition, rainfall totals and temperature bias when compared with observations. The above RCM customization run for multiple years illustrated the RCM has more value for temperature than precipitation. The RCM was able to capture the inter-annual temperature variability, but the positive precipitation bias limited the models ability for inter-annual precipitation variability. However, the RCM was able to capture lower frequency modes of variability for precipitation. Comparison of multi-year RCM simulations using the GCM and Reanalysis lateral boundary forcing implied that the lateral boundary forcing is more important to the RCM solution than errors internal to the RCM. Comparison of the GCMs mean errors illustrated that the mean average performance

  15. Climate Change in Developing Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.A.; Lasage, R.; Dorlands, C. (eds.) [Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-15

    This book presents an overview of the studies conducted by the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance programme. The programme was set up in recognition of the need for developing countries, in particular, to face the challenges confronting all countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The book presents an overview of the main results in 13 countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Surinam, Vietnam, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It provides a critical evaluation of the methodologies and approaches used, a cross-country synthesis and recommendations for further studies. Subjects dealt with include not only impact studies, but also vulnerability and adaptation, mitigation and climate related policy.

  16. Climate change - global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An explanation about climate, weather, climate changes. What is a greenhouse effect, i.e. global warming and reasons which contribute to this effect. Greenhouse gases (GHG) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) as a factor for estimating their influence on the greenhouse effect. Indicators of the climate changes in the previous period by known international institutions, higher concentrations of global average temperature. Projecting of likely scenarios for the future climate changes and consequences of them on the environment and human activities: industry, energy, agriculture, water resources. The main points of the Kyoto Protocol and problems in its realization. The need of preparing a country strategy concerning the acts of the Kyoto Protocol, suggestions which could contribute in the preparation of the strategy. A special attention is pointed to the energy, its resources, the structure of energy consumption and the energy efficiency. (Author)

  17. Forecasting fish stock dynamics under climate change: Baltic herring (Clupea harengus) as a case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartolino, V.; Margonski, P.; Lindegren, Martin;

    2014-01-01

    Climate change and anthropogenic disturbances may affect marine populations and ecosystems through multiple pathways. In this study we present a framework in which we integrate existing models and knowledge on basic regulatory processes to investigate the potential impact of future scenarios of f...

  18. Climate Change Management Approaches of Cities: A Comparative Study Between Globally Leading and Turkish Metropolitan Cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Solmaz Filiz Karabag

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Many studies have focused on climate change policies and action at the national level, but few have studied policies and action at the city level, especially cities in emerging economies. To address this gap, the present study analyzes the management strategies globally leading cities have developed to address climate change and related issues and compares them with the city strategies of one rapidly urbanizing emerging economy, Turkey. In the analysis, the strategic plans of five leading global cities are compared with those of sixteen Turkish cities. While the leading global cities have specific managerial approaches to mitigate climate change, none of the Turkish cities exhibits any comprehensive approach. Furthermore, while leading global cities modify urban services to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, few Turkish cities adjust any services to address this challenge. Some Turkish cities propose an increased use of renewable energy sources and modification in their transportation system, but the focus in these plans is the current daily needs of their inhabitants. The findings of this study suggest several climate change strategies both for Turkish cities and cities in other developing countries.

  19. Deliberation as Communication Instruction: A Study of a Climate Change Deliberation in an Introductory Biology Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drury, Sara A. Mehltretter

    2015-01-01

    The author argues that deliberation is an innovative method for teaching communication skills, particularly group communication, in the undergraduate science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) curriculum. A case study using a deliberation activity on global climate change in an introductory biology course demonstrates how deliberative…

  20. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  1. Effects of climate change on regional energy systems focussing on space heating and cooling: A case study of Austria

    OpenAIRE

    Hausl Stephan; Themessl Matthias; Gadocha Sabine; Schardinger Ingrid; Biberacher Markus; Castellazzi Bernhard; Gobiet Andreas

    2014-01-01

    Climate change affects regions differently and therefore also climate change effects on energy systems need to be analyzed region specific. The objective of the study presented is to show and analyze these effects on regional energy systems following a high spatial resolution approach. Three regional climate scenarios are downscaled to a 1 km resolution and error corrected for three different testing regions in Austria. These climate data are used to analyz...

  2. Study on the Sensitivity and Vulnerability of Wheat to Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SUN Fang; YANG Xiu; LIN Er-da; JU Hui; XIONG Wei

    2005-01-01

    Based on B2 climate change scenario produced by PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), which was developed by the UK Hadley Center, and the wheat yield data outputted by CERES-wheat model, the sensitivity and vulnerability of wheat production to the future climate change in China were studied through analyzing the yield variation using the GIS (geographical information system) techniques. Results showed that, by the 2070s, there will be three negative sensitive areas of rain-fed wheat, i.e., northeastern China, the region of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and part of the Loess Plateau. Irrigated wheat is generally sensitive to the future climate change for most areas of China, with a lower sensitive degree and a distribution of sensitive areas similar to the rain-fed wheat. For the irrigated wheat, northeast and northwest of China are strongly negative sensitive, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the coastal areas of southern China and the southwest of China, are moderately negative sensitive to the climate change. With the appropriate adaptation to the climate change, the rain-fed wheat in most regions of China will not be vulnerable and even has a yield increase, while the irrigated wheat will still have a larger vulnerable area (occupying about 2/3 of its total area in China), with the highly vulnerable regions distributed in northeastern China and northwestern China, and the medium and light vulnerable areas distributed along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,Yunnan and Guizhou provinces.

  3. Modeling direct and indirect climate change impacts on ecological networks : a case study on breeding habitat of Dutch meadow birds

    OpenAIRE

    van Dijk, Jerry; Van Der Vliet, Roland E.; De Jong, Harm; Zeylmans Van Emmichoven, Maarten J.; Van Hardeveld, Henk A.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Wassen, Martin J.

    2015-01-01

    Context: Climate change can directly affect habitats within ecological networks, but may also have indirect effects on network quality by inducing land use change. The relative impact of indirect effects of climate change on the quality of ecological networks currently remains largely unknown. Objectives: The objective of this study was to determine the relative impact of direct and indirect effects of climate change on a network of breeding habitat of four meadow bird species (Black-tailed g...

  4. Reduction of the air traffic's contribution to climate change: A REACT4C case study

    OpenAIRE

    Grewe, V; Champougny, T.; Matthes, Sigrun; Frömming, Christine; Brinkop, Sabine; Soevde, Amund; Irvine, Emma A.; Halscheidt, Lucia

    2014-01-01

    Air traffic alters the atmospheric composition and thereby contributes to climate change. Here we investigate the trans-Atlantic air traffic for one specific winter day and analyse, which routing changes were required to achieve a reduction in the air traffic’s contribution to climate change. We have applied an atmosphere-chemistry model to calculate so-called five dimensional climate cost functions (CCF), which describe the climate effect of a locally confined emission. The five dimensions r...

  5. Changing Climate Is Affecting Agriculture in the U.S.

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Blocks for Climate Smart Agriculture & Forestry USDA Resources Climate Change Program Office Agency Activities Climate Change Blogs Case Studies Through this initiative, USDA will ...

  6. Climate change and apple farming in Indian Himalayas: a study of local perceptions and responses.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basavaraj Basannagari

    Full Text Available Apple farming is an important activity and profession of farmer communities in the Himalayan states of India. At present, the traditional apple farming is under stress due to changes in climate. The present study was undertaken in an Indian Himalayan state, Himachal Pradesh, with the major aim of studying perceptions of farmers on the effects of climate change on apple farming along the altitudinal gradient. Through questionnaire survey, the perceptions of farmers were recorded at low hills (3000 m. At all elevation range the majority of farmers reported that there was increase in atmospheric temperature, and hence at low hills 72% farmers believed that this increase in temperature was responsible for decline in fruit size and so that the quality. Thirty five percent farmers at high hills and 30% at mid hills perceived frost as a major cause for damaging apple farming whereas at low hills 24% farmers perceived hailstorm as the major deterrent for apple farming. The majority of farmers, along the altitude (92% at high hills, 79% at mid hills and 83% at low hills, reported decrease in snowfall. The majority of farmers at low altitude and mid altitude reported decline in apple farming whereas 71% farmers at high hill areas refused decline in apple farming. About 73-83% farmers admitted delay in apple's harvesting period. At mid hills apple scab and at low hills pest attack on apple crops are considered as the indicators of climate change. The change in land use practices was attributed to climate change and in many areas the land under apple farming was replaced for production of coarse grains, seasonal vegetables and other horticulture species. Scientific investigation claiming changes in Indian Himalayan climate corroborates perceptions of farmers, as examined during the present study.

  7. Framework for studying the hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallema, Dennis W.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Gumiere, Silvio J.; Périard, Yann; Hiemstra, Paul H.; Bouttier, Léa; Fossey, Maxime; Paquette, Alain; Cogliastro, Alain; Olivier, Alain

    2014-09-01

    Alley cropping is an agroforestry practice whereby crops are grown between hedgerows of trees planted at wide spacings. The local climate and the physiological adaptation mechanisms of the trees are key factors in the growth and survival of the trees and intercrops, because they directly affect the soil moisture distribution. In order to evaluate the long-term hydrological impact of climate change in an alley cropping system in eastern Canada, we developed a framework that combines local soil moisture data with local projections of climate change and a model of soil water movement, root uptake and evapotranspiration. Forty-five frequency domain reflectometers (FDR) along a transect perpendicular to the tree rows generated a two-year dataset that we used for the parameterization and evaluation of the model. An impact study with simulations based on local projections of three global and one regional climate simulation suggest that the soil becomes drier overall in the period between 2041 and 2070, while the number of critically wet periods with a length of one day increases slightly with respect to the reference period between 1967 and 1996. Hydrological simulations based on a fourth climate scenario however point toward wetter conditions. In all cases the changes are minor. Although our simulations indicate that the experimental alley cropping system will possibly suffer drier conditions in response to higher temperatures and increased evaporative demand, these conditions are not necessarily critical for vegetation during the snow-free season.

  8. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  9. Current Climate Variability & Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

    2013-12-01

    Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and

  10. Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modeling flood damages under climate change conditions - a case study for Germany"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Huang, S.; Burghoff, O.; Hoffmann, P.; Kundzewicz, Z. W.

    2015-12-01

    In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood related losses can be expected in future, warmer, climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one Global Climate Model (GCM) was used as large scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCM models are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modeling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate driver shows trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

  11. Strategic Planning for Land Use under Extreme Climate Changes: A Case Study in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Cheng Huang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather caused by global climate change affects slope-land in Taiwan, causing soil loss, floods, and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked second highest worldwide. With three-fourths of the island area being slope-land, soil and water conservation (SWC is crucial. Therefore, because of the impact of climate and social change, the means of maintaining sustainable development of slope-land and the safety of the living environment in Taiwan is a developing and crucial issue. This study applied four foresight analysis tools that covered both qualitative and quantitative aspects, including international trend analysis, a focus group, the Delphi method, and a strategy roadmap. By combining the four analysis tools, we developed corresponding strategies to address climate change for use as references for policy-makers. The findings of this study can contribute to consensus-forming among multiple stakeholders on the sustainable development of soil and water resources and to devising foresight strategies for SWC in short-term, middle-term, and long-term bases. Ultimately, the goal of “considering climate and socioeconomic change, watershed resources being managed on a multiple-use basis to avoid disasters and to sustain SWC” can be realized by the year 2025.

  12. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valérie; Swingedouw, Didier; Landais, Amaëlle;

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... during the last 10 000 years, highlighting the role of soil dynamics in past vegetation changes, and stressing the growing anthropogenic impacts on soil erosion during recent decades. Furthermore, past and present changes in atmospheric and oceanic heat advection appear to severely influence both...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may...

  13. Impacts of climate and emission changes on nitrogen deposition in Europe: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Simpson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs driven by the same global projection of future climate over the period 2000–2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the result across the different models. The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver of future N-deposition changes is the specified emission change. Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous ammonia. Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent, although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas and changes better than the hemispheric-scale model. The biggest difference in the models is for predictions of individual N-compounds. One model (EMEP was used to explore changes in critical loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that the area of ecosystems which exceed critical loads is reduced from 64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas exceeded increasing again to 57% (for a 30% NH3 emission increase.

  14. Impacts of climate and emission changes on nitrogen deposition in Europe: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Simpson

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs driven by the same global projection of future climate over the period 2000–2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver of future N-deposition changes is the specified emission change. Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack of sulfur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous ammonia. Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent, although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas and changes better than the hemispheric-scale model. The biggest difference in the models is for predictions of individual N compounds. One model (EMEP was used to explore changes in critical loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that the area of ecosystems that exceeds critical loads is reduced from 64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas exceeded increasing again to 57% (for a 30% NH3 emission increase.

  15. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In order to take stock on the climatic change situation and initiatives at the beginning of 2006, the INES (National Institute on the Solar Energy) proposes this special document. It presents the Montreal conference of December 2005, realized to reinforced the actions of the international community against the greenhouse gases. The technical decisions decided at this conference are detailed. The document discusses also the causes and consequences of the climatic warming, the intervention sectors and the actions possibilities. (A.L.B.)

  16. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  17. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  18. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  19. Reservoir Systems in Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, W.; Tung, C.; Tai, C.

    2007-12-01

    Climate change may cause more climate variability and further results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may greatly influence reservoir¡¦s abilities to provide service, such as water supply and flood mitigation, and even danger reservoir¡¦s safety. Some local studies have identified that climate change may cause more flood in wet period and less flow in dry period in Taiwan. To mitigate climate change impacts, more reservoir space, i.e. less storage, may be required to store higher flood in wet periods, while more reservoir storage may be required to supply water for dry periods. The goals to strengthen adaptive capacity of water supply and flood mitigation are conflict under climate change. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems. The evaluation procedure includes hydrological models, a reservoir water balance model, and a water supply system dynamics model. The hydrological models are used to simulate reservoir inflows under different climate conditions. Future climate scenarios are derived from several GCMs. Then, the reservoir water balance model is developed to calculate reservoir¡¦s storage and outflows according to the simulated inflows and operational rules. The ability of flood mitigation is also evaluated. At last, those outflows are further input to the system dynamics model to assess whether the goal of water supply can still be met. To mitigate climate change impacts, the implementing adaptation strategies will be suggested with the principles of risk management. Besides, uncertainties of this study will also be analyzed. The Feitsui reservoir system in northern Taiwan is chosen as a case study.

  20. Climate change in the Iberian Upwelling System: a numerical study using GCM downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro Pires, Ana; Nolasco, Rita; Rocha, Alfredo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Dubert, Jesus

    2016-07-01

    The present work aims at evaluating the impacts of a climate change scenario on the hydrography and dynamics of the Iberian Upwelling System. Using regional ocean model configurations, the study domain is forced with three different sets of surface fields: a climatological dataset to provide the control run; a dataset obtained from averaging several global climate models (GCM) that integrate the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) models used in climate scenarios, for the same period as the climatological dataset; and this same dataset but for a future period, retrieved from the IPCC A2 climate scenario. After ascertaining that the ocean run forced with the GCM dataset for the present compared reasonably well with the climatologically forced run, the results for the future run (relative to the respective present run) show a general temperature increase (from +0.5 to +3 °C) and salinity decrease (from -0.1 to -0.3), particularly in the upper 100-200 m, although these differences depend strongly on season and distance to the coast. There is also strengthening of the SST cross-shore gradient associated to upwelling, which causes narrowing and shallowing of the upwelling jet. This effect is contrary to the meridional wind stress intensification that is also observed, which would tend to strengthen the upwelling jet.

  1. Climate changes and biodiversity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    As some people forecast an average temperature increase between 1 and 3.5 degrees by the end of the century, with higher increases under high latitudes (it could reach 8 degrees in some regions of Canada), other changes will occur: precipitations, sea level rise, reductions in polar ice, extreme climatic events, glacier melting, and so on. The author discusses how these changes will impact biodiversity as they will threat habitat and living conditions of many species. Some studies assess a loss of 15 to 37 per cent of biodiversity by 2050. Moreover, physiology is influenced by temperature: for some species, higher temperatures favour the development of female embryos, or the increase of their population, or may result in an evolution of their reproduction strategy. Life rhythm will also change, for plants as well as for animals. Species will keep on changing their distribution area, but some others will not be able to and are therefore threatened. Finally, as the evolutions concern their vectors, some diseases will spread in new regions

  2. Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 heat wave: a climate change adaptation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakkad, Khyati; Barzaga, Michelle L; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Sheffield, Perry E

    2014-01-01

    Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2-88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation-here relocating one ward-and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations.

  3. Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 Heat Wave: A Climate Change Adaptation Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khyati Kakkad

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2–88%. Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation—here relocating one ward—and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations.

  4. NEW PHYTOTRON FOR STUDYING THE EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON PLANT PATHOGENS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lodovica Gullino

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its recent fourth assessment report predicts that, because of higher concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, until 2100 the global mean temperature would rise between 0.6 and 4°C, in combination with changes in precipitation and an increased frequency of extreme weather events. Despite this trend, the extent and mechanisms through which elevated CO2 affects plant diseases remain uncertain. Increases in CO2 and temperatures are also expected to induce complex effects on plant pathogens. Although re- 10 search on the effects of climate change continues to be limited, new tools are permitting to study the effects of climate variables on infection rates in the case of some pathosystems. The shortage of critical epidemiological data on individual plant diseases needs to be addressed using experimental approaches. A useful tool for such types of studies is represented by phytotrons. Hereby, a new phytotron typology, built with the specific aim of studying the effect of climate change on plant disease, is described. Beginning from a general plant overview, key mechanical and electrical systems are described (i.e. air temperature and relative humidity control, lighting and CO2 control system etc. as environmental parameters and operation cycle are summarized. In particular both parameters which could be set and monitored and those measured and stored are reported. After a suitable testing period, several operation cycles were performed in order to assess the control system’s stability and to optimize the management of all systems involved and the first experimental trials were carried out. The effect of three different simulated climatic conditions: 450 ppm of CO2 with standard temperature (ranging from 18 to 24°C or 18 to 26°C, elevated CO2 (800 ppm with standard temperature and elevated CO2 (800 ppm with elevated temperature (4°C higher than standard on the development of grape

  5. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  6. Climate change and water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  7. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...

  8. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  9. Hydrological impact of climate change: A sensitivity study for the netherlands. Doctoral thesis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandsma, T.

    1995-02-20

    The main objective of this study is to obtain boundaries within which the impact of climate change, due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, will fall for various aspects of the water management system of the Netherlands. The following selection has been made of aspects of the water management system of the Netherlands that will be dealt with in this study: (1) sewer systems; (2) urban groundwater levels; (3) public water supply; (4) agricultural water supply; (5) discharge of polders.

  10. Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village, Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkomwa, Emmanuel Charles; Joshua, Miriam Kalanda; Ngongondo, Cosmo; Monjerezi, Maurice; Chipungu, Felistus

    In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people's perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climate change, IKS varies over a short spatial scale, providing locally relevant adaptation to impacts of climate change. This paper therefore advocates for the integration of IKS in programmes addressing adaptation to climate change and vulnerability. This will serve to ensure sustainable and relevant adaptation strategies.

  11. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  12. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  13. Electricity supply options, sustainable development and climate change priorities. Case studies for South Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report summarizes the results of the project Projecting future energy demand: Balancing development, energy and climate priorities in large developing economies, which has been managed by UNEP Risoe Centre on behalf of UNEP DTIE. The report argues that starting from development objectives is critical to mitigation efforts in developing countries. Instead of defining local benefits as ancillary to mitigation, reductions of GHG emissions should be seen as the co-benefits of policies that drive local sustainable development. A development-focused approach seems more likely to be implemented than the imposition of GHG targets by the international community - especially as South Africa has adopted development targets such as the Millennium Development Goals and promoted the Johannesburg Plan of Action. The case studies presented take as their starting point development objectives, rather than climate change targets. The form of climate action which it investigates is sustainable development policies and measures. (BA)

  14. CLIMATE AND LULC CHANGE SCENARIOS TO STUDY ITS IMPACT ON HYDROLOGICAL REGIME

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. P. Aggarwal

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Climate change, whether as a natural cycle variability and/or due to anthropogenic reasons, is affecting and likely to further affect the water resources, which is a vital necessity for existence of life form. The predicted intensification of hydrological cycle would change all of its constituents both in time and space domain. This is a long term phenomenon and the necessity is to understand the intensity of the effects on various aspects of water resources by way of scientific studies backed by the available field data. Therefore, in the present study, the impact of climate and land use land cover change on entire India under different assumed plausible hypothetical scenarios has been studied. These scenarios were developed by increasing; temperature by 1, 2 and 30C; rainfall by 5, 10 and 15%; and then the combination of both. To carry out this analysis, variable infiltration capacity (VIC semi-distributed macroscale hydrological model has been investigated. It was found that slight change in climate may pose huge difference on hydrological cycle and its component.

  15. Factors Affecting Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Environmental Degradation and Climate Change Effects: A Farm Level Study in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Uddin, Mohammed; Bokelmann, Wolfgang; Entsminger, Jason

    2014-01-01

    Offering a case study of coastal Bangladesh, this study examines the adaptation of agriculturalists to degrading environmental conditions likely to be caused or exacerbated under global climate change. It examines four central components: (1) the rate of self-reported adoption of adaptive mechanisms (coping strategies) as a result of changes in climate

  16. Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

    2016-02-01

    Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures

  17. Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mereu, Simone; Sušnik, Janez; Trabucco, Antonio; Daccache, Andre; Vamvakeridou-Lyroudia, Lydia; Renoldi, Stefano; Virdis, Andrea; Savić, Dragan; Assimacopoulos, Dionysis

    2016-02-01

    Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures

  18. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  19. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Parks, Sean A

    2016-01-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

  20. Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

    2016-08-01

    Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported.

  1. Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: a case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenni, K.; Graves, D.; Hardiman, Jill M.; Hatten, James R.; Mastin, Mark C.; Mesa, Matthew G.; Montag, J.; Nieman, Timothy; Voss, Frank D.; Maule, Alec G.

    2014-01-01

    Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

  2. The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

    OpenAIRE

    Hamilton, Jacqueline; Tol, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals - as Western European international tourist demand falls - but later increase ...

  3. Climate Change and Agricultural Vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After the introduction Chapter 2 presents details of the ecological-economic analysis based on the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zones (AEZ) approach for evaluation of biophysical limitations and agricultural production potentials, and IIASA's Basic Linked System (BLS) for analyzing the world's food economy and trade system. The BLS is a global general equilibrium model system for analyzing agricultural policies and food system prospects in an international setting. BLS views national agricultural systems as embedded in national economies, which interact with each other through trade at the international level. The combination of AEZ and BLS provides an integrated ecological-economic framework for the assessment of the impact of climate change. We consider climate scenarios based on experiments with four General Circulation Models (GCM), and we assess the four basic socioeconomic development pathways and emission scenarios as formulated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its Third Assessment Report. Chapter 3 presents the main AEZ results of the impact of climate change on agriculture. Results comprise environmental constraints to crop agriculture; climate variability and the variability of rain-fed cereal production; changes in potential agricultural land; changes in crop-production patterns; and the impact of climate change on cereal-production potential. Chapter 4 discusses the AEZ-BLS integrated ecological-economic analysis of climate change on the world food system. This includes quantification of scale and location of hunger, international agricultural trade, prices, production, land use, etc. It assesses trends in food production, trade, and consumption, and the impact on poverty and hunger of alternative development pathways and varying levels of climate change. Chapter 5 presents the main conclusions and policy implications of this study

  4. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  5. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  6. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  7. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  8. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  9. Polish country study to address climate change: Strategies of the GHG`s emission reduction and adaptation of the Polish economy to the changed climate. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-01-01

    The Polish Country Study Project was initiated in 1992 as a result of the US Country Study Initiative whose objective was to grant the countries -- signatories of the United Nations` Framework Convention on Climate Change -- assistance that will allow them to fulfill their obligations in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG`s) inventory, preparation of strategies for the reduction of their emission, and adapting their economies to the changed climatic conditions. In February 1993, in reply to the offer from the United States Government, the Polish Government expressed interest in participation in this program. The Study proposal, prepared by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, Natural Resources and Forestry was presented to the US partner. The program proposal assumed implementation of sixteen elements of the study, encompassing elaboration of scenarios for the strategy of mission reduction in energy sector, industry, municipal management, road transport, forestry, and agriculture, as well as adaptations to be introduced in agriculture, forestry, water management, and coastal management. The entire concept was incorporated in macroeconomic strategy scenarios. A complementary element was the elaboration of a proposal for economic and legal instruments to implement the proposed strategies. An additional element was proposed, namely the preparation of a scenario of adapting the society to the expected climate changes.

  10. Projection of future climate changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate models provide the opportunity to anticipate how the climate system may change due to anthropogenic activities during the 21. century. Studies are based on numerical simulations that explore the evolution of the mean climate and its variability according to different socio-economic scenarios. We present a selection of results from phase 5 of the Climate model intercomparison project (CMIP5) with an illustrative focus on the two French models that participated to this exercise. We describe the effects of human perturbations upon surface temperature, precipitation, the cryo-sphere, but also extreme weather events and the carbon cycle. Results show a number of robust features, on the amplitude and geographical patterns of the expected changes and on the processes at play in these changes. They also show the limitations of such a prospective exercise and persistent uncertainties on some key aspects. (authors)

  11. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.; Clive E. Sabel

    2016-01-01

    As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn’t been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether...

  12. Reforestation and climate change mitigation: A background study for Joint Implementation in China and Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Gan, Lin; Næss, Lars Otto; Kasa, Sjur; O'Brien, Karen

    1998-01-01

    This paper discusses the importance of institutional barriers in promoting reforestation as a means of mitigating global climate change. It is argued that cost-effective implementation of reforestation depends on proper institutional settings in host countries. The study is motivated by the growing interest for reforestation projects in developing countries through the Joint Implementation (JI) mechanism. Particular emphasis is given to the role of property rights. The relationship between va...

  13. Evidence from 12-year study links ecosystem changes in the Gulf of Maine with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, George R.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Balch, William; Drapeau, David; Bowler, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    Investigators at the Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences (East Boothbay, Maine) and the U.S. Geological Survey collaborated to study ecosystem changes in the Gulf of Maine. As part of the Gulf of Maine North Atlantic Time Series (GNATS), a comprehensive long-term study of hydrographic, biological, optical and chemical properties, multiple cruises have been conducted each year since 2001 by using a portable laboratory aboard different vessels (figure 1) and occasionally a remotely controlled glider (figure 2). Data collected during these cruises, when analyzed within the context of a century of climatological and streamflow data, document changes in temperature, salinity, and coastal ocean productivity that appear to be related to recent increases in precipitation and streamflow. These results are evidence of a link between changing hydrologic conditions on land and changes in coastal ocean productivity.

  14. Climate services for the assessment of climate change impacts and risks in coastal areas at the regional scale: the North Adriatic case study (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2013-04-01

    At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and

  15. Challenges of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husaini, Amjad M

    2014-01-01

    Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

  16. Cenozoic Mammals and Climate Change: The Contrast between Coarse-Scale versus High-Resolution Studies Explained by Species Sorting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Prothero

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Many paleontologists have noticed the broadly similar patterns between the changes in Cenozoic mammalian diversity and taxonomic dominance and climate changes. Yet detailed studies of fossil population samples with fine-scale temporal resolution during episodes of climate change like the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the White River Group, and the late Pleistocene at Rancho La Brea tar pits, demonstrates that most fossil mammal species are static and show no significant microevolutionary response to major climate changes. This mismatch between patterns seems best explained by species sorting. As the punctuated equilibrium model demonstrated, over long time spans most fossil species are stable and do not respond to climate change. Instead, change occurs at the next hierarchical level, with species sorting adding and subtracting to the total diversity pattern revealed by coarse-scale taxon counting, apparently responding to longer-term changes in climate as revealed by proxies like the oxygen isotope record.

  17. The effects of changing solar activity on climate: contributions from palaeoclimatological studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engels Stefan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Natural climate change currently acts in concert with human-induced changes in the climate system. To disentangle the natural variability in the climate system and the human-induced effects on the global climate, a critical analysis of climate change in the past may offer a better understanding of the processes that drive the global climate system. In this review paper, we present palaeoclimatological evidence for the past influence of solar variability on Earth’s climate, highlighting the effects of solar forcing on a range of timescales. On a decadal timescale, instrumental measurements as well as historical records show the effects of the 11-year Schwabe cycle on climate. The variation in total solar irradiance that is associated with a Schwabe cycle is only ~1 W m−2 between a solar minimum and a maximum, but winter and spring temperatures on the Northern Hemisphere show a response even to this small-scale variability. There is a large body of evidence from palaeoclimatic reconstructions that shows the influence of solar activity on a centennial to millennial timescale. We highlight a period of low solar activity starting at 2800 years before present when Europe experienced a shift to colder and wetter climate conditions. The spatial pattern of climate change that can be recognized in the palaeoclimatological data is in line with the suggested pattern of climate change as simulated by climate models. Millennial-scale climate oscillations can be recognized in sediment records from the Atlantic Ocean as well as in records of lake-level fluctuations in southeastern France. These oscillations coincide with variation in 14C production as recognized in the atmospheric 14C record (which is a proxy-record for solar activity, suggesting that Earth’s climate is sensitive to changes in solar activity on a millennial timescale as well.

  18. A modeling study of irrigation effects on global surface- and groundwater resources under a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leng, G.; Huang, M.; Tang, Q.; Leung, L. R.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we investigate the effects of irrigation on global surface water (SW) and groundwater (GW) resources by performing simulations of the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4) at 0.5-degree resolution driven by downscaled/bias-corrected historical climate simulations and future projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from 1950-2099. For each climate scenario, three sets of numerical experiments were configured: (1) a control experiment (CTRL) in which all crops are assumed to be rainfed; (2) an irrigation experiment (IRRIG) in which the irrigation module is activated; and (3) a groundwater pumping experiment (PUMP) in which a groundwater pumping scheme coupled with the irrigation module is activated. The parameters associated with irrigation and groundwater pumping were calibrated based on a global inventory of census-based SW and GW use compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Our results suggest that irrigation could lead to two major opposing effects on SW/GW: SW depletion/GW accumulation in regions with irrigation primarily fed by SW, and SW accumulation/GW depletion in regions with irrigation fed primarily by GW. Furthermore, irrigation depending primarily on SW tends to have larger impacts on low-flow than high-flow conditions of SW, suggesting that intensive irrigation water use has the potential to further exacerbate low-flow conditions, increasing vulnerability to drought. By the end of the 21st century (2070-2099), climate change significantly increases (relative to 1971-2000) irrigation water demand in the regions equipped for irrigation across the world. The increase in demand combined with the increased temporal-spatial variability of water supply will cause more severe issues of local water scarcity for irrigation. Regionally, irrigation has the potential to aggravate climate-induced changes of SW/GW although the effects are negligible when averaged globally. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for

  19. Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. W. Jewitt

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. A further difficulty in assessing these interactions will be that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model could be used with confidence to simulate the

  20. Confirmation of ACRU model results for applications in land use and climate change studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. P. W. Jewitt

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological responses of a catchment are sensitive to, and strongly coupled to, land use and climate, and changes thereof. The hydrological responses to the impacts of changing land use and climate will be the result of complex interactions, where the change in one may moderate or exacerbate the effects of the other. Further difficulties in assessing these interactions are that dominant drivers of the hydrological system may vary at different spatial and temporal scales. To assess these interactions, a process-based hydrological model, sensitive to land use and climate, and changes thereof, needs to be used. For this purpose the daily time step ACRU model was selected. However, to be able to use a hydrological model such as ACRU with confidence its representation of reality must be confirmed by comparing simulated output against observations across a range of climatic conditions. Comparison of simulated against observed streamflow was undertaken in three climatically diverse South African catchments, ranging from the semi-arid, sub-tropical Luvuvhu catchment, to the winter rainfall Upper Breede catchment and the sub-humid Mgeni catchment. Not only do the climates of the catchments differ, but their primary land uses also vary. In the upper areas of the Mgeni catchment commercial plantation forestry is dominant, while in the middle reaches there are significant areas of commercial plantation sugarcane and urban areas, while the lower reaches are dominated by urban areas. The Luvuvhu catchment has a large proportion of subsistence agriculture and informal residential areas. In the Upper Breede catchment in the Western Cape, commercial orchards and vineyards are the primary land uses. Overall the ACRU model was able to represent the high, low and total flows, with satisfactory Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency indexes obtained for the selected catchments. The study concluded that the ACRU model can be used with confidence to simulate the streamflows

  1. Africa and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toulmin, Camilla; Huq, Saleemul

    2006-10-15

    Remember the scenes from New Orleans of flooded streets and scavenging people? One year on and little progress is evident in achieving the step-change needed in controlling greenhouse gases. Hurricane Katrina showed only too vividly the massive power of natural forces combined with inadequate preparation. The flood waters washed away and exposed fully the lack of planning and low priority given to securing life and livelihoods, especially of the more vulnerable groups in the community. If this is what a whirlwind can bring in the southern USA, what might we reap in further storms and droughts tomorrow in poorer parts of the world? New research findings point to the likelihood of larger, faster and more substantial changes to our climate system. The African continent is particularly vulnerable to adverse changes in climate, the evidence for which is becoming more and more stark.

  2. Portfolio of recent climate change studies utilizing AMS at ANTARES, ANSTO

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The application of Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) to the measurement of the radionuclides 14C, 10Be, 26Al and 36Cl has dramatically increased our understanding of factors that affect climate and has led to a greater understanding of natural processes. Using the ANTARES AMS facility at ANSTO we are able to analyse samples containing as few as 105 atoms of these radionuclides. Cosmogenic radionuclides produced by the interaction of cosmic rays with the upper atmosphere and exposed surface rocks are stored in natural archives. By measuring small variations in the concentrations of these isotopes over time, information can be inferred about the systems governing these changes. Over the last four years we have undertaken a broad range of climate change and environmental studies, based on the ultra-sensitive technique of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). Some specific examples of projects investigating the ice sheet at Law Dome, Antarctica and minerals extracted from geological surface formations will be given

  3. On study of global warming influence on natural resources and Kazakstan economy and adaption activity under possible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Results of study of anthropogenic climate changes and its potential influence on economics and natural resources of Kazakhstan are generalized. Possible measures on adaptation and weakening of greenhouse effect impact in power engineering, agriculture and water recourses management are discussed. Further actions related with fulfillment of Republic of Kazakhstan obligations within Framework Convention of United Nations on Climate Change are proposed. (author)

  4. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...

  5. Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bray, D.

    2012-12-01

    This case study of climate change communications assesses the salient means of communication and the message adopted by regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast. Realizing that cultural factors and local values (and not simply knowledge) are significant influences in explaining attitudes towards climate change, this analysis draws from the records of regional weather, from scientists with a specific focus on the region, from the political decision makers for that region, and the media message reaching the decision makers, ensuring all elements of the analysis are drawn from the same socioeconomic, geophysical, political and cultural context. This is important as the social dynamics surrounding the trust in science is of critical importance and, as such, all elements of the case study are specifically contained within a common context. If the utility of climate change knowledge is to prompt well conceived adaptation/mitigation strategies then the political decision process, or at least the perceptions shaping it, can best be understood by locating it within the world view of the decision makers involved in the production process. Using the results of two survey questionnaires, one of regional climate scientists and one of regional political decision makers, ten years of local weather records, and a summary of the message from mass media circulation, the discord in perceptions of regional climate change are quantitatively explored. The conclusions drawn from the analysis include, compared to the scientific assessment: The decision makers' perceptions of recent past differ from actual observations. The decision makers' perceptions of the future differ from scientific assessments. The decision makers tend to over estimate the magnitude of regional climate change and its impacts. The decision makers tend to over estimate the sense of immediacy for adaptation measures. The conclusions drawn suggest that in the regional political realm, it is often a

  6. The Unique Capabilities of the Global Hawk Aircraft for the Study of Climate Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cairo, F.; Carli, Bruno; Curry, Robert

    2009-01-01

    Due to unprecedented extent and flexibility of the coverage that is now attainable both in space and time, stratospheric unmanned aircraft, such as the Global Hawk (GH), offers new opportunities for the study of climate changes. The capability of performing long flights at altitudes close to the boundary conditions of radiative processes, and of following the diurnal variation of chemical species and clouds, make the GH competitive with LEO and geosynchronous satellites, and even capable of new observations that are not possible from satellites. This paper discusses how the GH can be used to make relevant advancements in most of the issues that are related to climate change studies, such as: Earth Radiation Budget, Water Cycle, Ecosystems and Upper Troposphere-Lower Stratosphere, as well as to the monitoring and control of Greenhouse Gases and Air Quality . Collaboration between NASA and Italian scientific institutions, within the framework of the US.-Italy Cooperation on Climate Change, is providing the opportunity to rapidly deploy new instruments on the GH and to possibly operate the aircraft from an Italian site in the Mediterranean area. From this area, which is considered highly vulnerable to climate change, meridional transects would allow the crossing of Polar and Sub Tropical Jets, as well as a complete crossing of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, while latitudinal ones would follow the influx from Asia and North America. Regions otherwise difficult to access, such as Central Africa and the Tibetan Plateau, could be reached and better investigated. An overview of these new opportunities will be given and discussed.

  7. How are Italian and Spanish cities tackling climate change? A local comparative study

    OpenAIRE

    Olazabal, Marta; Gregorio Hurtado, Sonia de; Olazabal, Eduardo; Pietrapertosa, Filomena; Salvia, Monica; Geneletti,Davide; D’Alonzo, Valentina; Feliú, Efrén; Di Leo, Senatro; Reckien, Diana

    2014-01-01

    Cities are widely recognised as being pivotal to fight climate change. They magnify the drivers of climate change, experience the impacts and also concentrate the highest room for action. Although urban areas are broadly claimed to be climate leaders, there is no archetype of right actions given the highly contextual differences among them. Yet, the how and why cities respond to global environmental challenges in the context of increasingly competitive economies needs further research. In thi...

  8. Assessment of climate change impacts on rainfall using large scale climate variables and downscaling models – A case study

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Azadeh Ahmadi; Ali Moridi; Elham Kakaei Lafdani; Ghasem Kianpisheh

    2014-10-01

    Many of the applied techniques in water resources management can be directly or indirectly influenced by hydro-climatology predictions. In recent decades, utilizing the large scale climate variables as predictors of hydrological phenomena and downscaling numerical weather ensemble forecasts has revolutionized the long-lead predictions. In this study, two types of rainfall prediction models are developed to predict the rainfall of the Zayandehrood dam basin located in the central part of Iran. The first seasonal model is based on large scale climate signals data around the world. In order to determine the inputs of the seasonal rainfall prediction model, the correlation coefficient analysis and the new Gamma Test (GT) method are utilized. Comparison of modelling results shows that the Gamma test method improves the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of modelling performance as 8% and 10% for dry and wet seasons, respectively. In this study, Support Vector Machine (SVM) model for predicting rainfall in the region has been used and its results are compared with the benchmark models such as K-nearest neighbours (KNN) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). The results show better performance of the SVM model at testing stage. In the second model, statistical downscaling model (SDSM) as a popular downscaling tool has been used. In this model, using the outputs from GCM, the rainfall of Zayandehrood dam is projected under two climate change scenarios. Most effective variables have been identified among 26 predictor variables. Comparison of the results of the two models shows that the developed SVM model has lesser errors in monthly rainfall estimation. The results show that the rainfall in the future wet periods are more than historical values and it is lower than historical values in the dry periods. The highest monthly uncertainty of future rainfall occurs in March and the lowest in July.

  9. Climate change perception: A case study of Bardiya National Park (BNP, Thakurdwara, Bardiya, Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surendra Bam

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This study presents an account of Climate change trends and their implications in Thakurdwara V.D.C. located at buffer zone of Bardiya National Park, Nepal. This study has adopted place based community vulnerability assessment approach which is based on participatory case studies. Primary data were collected through focused group discussion, household survey and interview where as climatological analysis was done with data obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM. Trend Analysis of DHM data and survey result has clearly spelled that the study area has experienced changes over precipitation and temperature pattern. In case of Rani Jaruwa Nursery and Gulariya stations, which are near to the study area, precipitation is decreasing at the rate of 1.006 mm/yr and 0.315 mm/yr respectively. Whereas the temperature in both of Rani jaruwa Nursery station and Chisapani station is increasing at the rate of 0.004oC per year and 0.067oC per year respectively. Natural disasters, water scarcity, decrease in food production, change in vegetation composition and adverse health impacts are the major risks identified by the community. Therefore, our further action should be to formulate appropriate adaptation strategies and strengthen the community to better cope climate change.

  10. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  11. How Does a Regional Climate Model Modify the Projected Climate Change Signal of the Driving GCM: A Study over Different CORDEX Regions Using REMO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claas Teichmann

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Global and regional climate model simulations are frequently used for regional climate change assessments and in climate impact modeling studies. To reflect the inherent and methodological uncertainties in climate modeling, the assessment of regional climate change requires ensemble simulations from different global and regional climate model combinations. To interpret the spread of simulated results, it is useful to understand how the climate change signal is modified in the GCM-RCM modelmodelgeneral circulation model-regional climate model (GCM-RCM chain. This kind of information can also be useful for impact modelers; for the process of experiment design and when interpreting model results. In this study, we investigate how the simulated historical and future climate of the Max-Planck-Institute earth system model (MPI-ESM is modified by dynamic downscaling with the regional model REMO in different world regions. The historical climate simulations for 1950–2005 are driven by observed anthropogenic forcing. The climate projections are driven by projected anthropogenic forcing according to different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs. The global simulations are downscaled with REMO over the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX domains Africa, Europe, South America and West Asia from 2006–2100. This unique set of simulations allows for climate type specific analysis across multiple world regions and for multi-scenarios. We used a classification of climate types by Köppen-Trewartha to define evaluation regions with certain climate conditions. A systematic comparison of near-surface temperature and precipitation simulated by the regional and the global model is done. In general, the historical time period is well represented by the GCM and the RCM. Some different biases occur in the RCM compared to the GCM as in the Amazon Basin, northern Africa and the West Asian domain. Both models project similar warming

  12. The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamilton, Jacqueline; Tol, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holi

  13. Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kwadijk, J.C.J.; Haasnoot, M.; Mulder, J.P.M.; Hoogvliet, M.; Jeuken, A.; Krogt, R. van de; Oostrom, N. van; Schelfhout, H.; Velzen, H. van; Waveren, H. van; Wit, M.J.M. de

    2010-01-01

    Studies on the impact of climate change and sea level rise usually take climate scenarios as their starting point. To support long-termwater management planning in the Netherlands, we carried out a study that started at the opposite end of the effect chain. In the study we refer to three aspects of

  14. Adapting to climate change despite scientific uncertainty: A case study of coastal protection from sea-level rise in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation is an increasing focus of international aid. At recent meetings of the parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the developed world agreed to rapidly increase international assistance to help developing countries, like the low-lying island nation of Kiribati, respond to the impacts of climate change. These emerging adaptation efforts must proceed despite the large and partially irreducible scientific uncertainty about the magnitude of those future climate impacts. In this study, we use the example of efforts to adapt to sea-level rise in Kiribati to document the challenges facing such internationally-funded climate change adaptation projects given the scientific uncertainty about climate impacts. Drawing on field and document research, we describe the scientific uncertainty about projected sea-level rise in Tarawa, the capital of Kiribati, how that uncertainty can create trade-offs between adaptation measures, and the social, political and economic context in which adaptation decisions must be made. The analysis shows there is no 'silver bullet' adaptation strategy in countries like Kiribati, given the long-term scientific uncertainty about sea-level rise and the environment of climate change aid. The existence of irreducible scientific uncertainty does not preclude effective climate change adaptation, but instead requires adaptation programs that embrace multiple strategies and planning horizons, and continually build on and re-adjust previous investments. This work highlights the importance of sustained international climate change financing, as proposed in UNFCCC negotiations.

  15. Governing Carbon Mitigation and Climate Change within Local Councils: A Case Study of Adelaide, South Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heather Zeppel

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available There is growing concern about climate change impacts on local government areas. In Australia, the federal carbon tax (from 1 July 2012 will also increase costs for local councils. This paper evaluates what carbon mitigation (i.e. energy, water, and waste management actions have been implemented by metropolitan Adelaide councils (n=14 and why (or why not. A survey of environmental officers profiled carbon mitigation actions, emissions auditing, and motives for emissions reduction by Adelaide councils. The main reasons for adopting carbon actions were a climate change plan, climate leadership, and cost savings. Internal council governance of climate change actions was also evaluated. A climate governance framework based on adaptive management, communication, and reflective practice (Nursey-Bray 2010 was applied to assess climate mitigation by Adelaide councils.

  16. The importance of phylogeny to the study of phenological response to global climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, Charles C.; Willis, Charles G.; Primack, Richard B.; Miller-Rushing, Abraham J.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change has resulted in major changes in the phenology—i.e. the timing of seasonal activities, such as flowering and bird migration—of some species but not others. These differential responses have been shown to result in ecological mismatches that can have negative fitness consequences. However, the ways in which climate change has shaped changes in biodiversity within and across communities are not well understood. Here, we build on our previous results that established a link betwee...

  17. Outchasing climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Showstack, Randy

    Pygmy possums, monarch butterflies, spoon-billed sandpipers, and a number of trees and other plants could be among the species unable to migrate fast enough to new habitat in the face of potential global climate changes, according to an August 30 report by the Switzerland-based World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF) and the U.S. based Clean-Air-Cool Planet (CACP), two conservation organizations.

  18. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  19. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  20. Global Studies of the Sulfur Cycle Including the Influence of DMS and Fossil Fuel Sulfur on Climate and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penner, Joyce E.

    1998-01-01

    The indirect effect of anthropogenic aerosols, wherein aerosol particles are thought to increase cloud droplet concentrations and cloud lifetime, is the most uncertain component of climate forcing over the past 100 years. Here, for the first time, we use a mechanistic treatment of droplet nucleation and a prognostic treatment of the number of cloud droplets to study the indirect aerosol effect from changes in carbonaceous and sulfate aerosols. Cloud droplet nucleation is parameterized as a function of total aerosol number concentration, updraft velocity and a shape parameter, which takes into account the mechanism, of sulfate aerosol formation, while cloud droplet number depends on the nucleation as well as on droplet sinks. Whereas previous treatments have predicted annual average indirect effects between -1 and -2 W/sq m, we obtain an indirect aerosol effect between -0.14 W/sq m and -0.42 W/sq m in the global mean.

  1. Novel approaches to study climate change effects on terrestrial ecosystems in the field

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beier, C.; Emmett, B.; Gundersen, P.;

    2004-01-01

    mimicked the way climate change, caused by increased cloudiness and increased greenhouse gas emissions, alters the heat balance of ecosystems. Drought conditions were created by automatically covering the vegetation with transparent curtains during rain events over a 2-5-month period. The experimental...... a valuable tool for investigating the effects of climate change in remote locations with minimal artifacts....... approach has been evaluated at four European sites across a climate gradient. All sites were dominated (more than 50%) by shrubs of the ericaceous family. Within each site, replicated 4-m X 5-m plots were established for control, warming, and drought treatments and the effect on climate variables recorded...

  2. Climate Change Studies over Bangalore using Multi-source Remote Sensing Data and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    B, S.; Gouda, K. C.; Laxmikantha, B. P.; Bhat, N.

    2014-12-01

    Urbanization is a form of metropolitan growth that is a response to often bewildering sets of economic, social, and political forces and to the physical geography of an area. Some of the causes of the sprawl include - population growth, economy, patterns of infrastructure initiatives like the construction of roads and the provision of infrastructure using public money encouraging development. The direct implication of such urban sprawl is the change in land use and land cover of the region. In this study the long term climate data from multiple sources like NCEP reanalysis, IMD observations and various satellite derived products from MAIRS, IMD, ERSL and TRMM are considered and analyzed using the developed algorithms for the better understanding of the variability in the climate parameters over Bangalore. These products are further mathematically analyzed to arrive at desired results by extracting land surface temperature (LST), Potential evapo-transmission (PET), Rainfall, Humidity etc. Various satellites products are derived from NASA (National Aeronautics Space Agency), Indian meteorological satellites and global satellites are helpful in massive study of urban issues at global and regional scale. Climate change analysis is well studied by using either single source data such as Temperature or Rainfall from IMD (Indian Meteorological Department) or combined data products available as in case of MAIRS (Monsoon Asia Integrated Regional Scale) program to get rainfall at regional scale. Finally all the above said parameters are normalized and analyzed with the help of various open source available software's for pre and post processing our requirements to obtain desired results. A sample of analysis i.e. the Inter annual variability of annual averaged Temperature over Bangalore is presented in figure 1, which clearly shows the rising trend of the temperature (0.06oC/year). Also the Land use and land cover (LULC) analysis over Bangalore, Day light hours from

  3. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  4. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit;

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  5. Modeling the Impacts of Urbanization on Regional Climate Change: A Case Study in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyan Zhan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available China has experienced rapid urbanization since 1978, and the dramatic change in land cover is expected to have significant impacts on the climate change. Some models have been used to simulate the relationship between land use and land cover change and climate change; however, there is still no sufficient evidence for the impacts of urbanization on the regional climate. This study aims to identify the impact of urban land use change on regional temperature and precipitation in summer in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan Metropolitan area during 2030–2040 based on the analysis of the simulation results of WRF model. Firstly, we analyzed the land use change and climate change during 1995–2005 in the study area. The impacts of future urbanization on regional climate change were then simulated. The results indicate that urbanization in this area has affected the regional climate and has the potential to increase temperature and precipitation in the summer of 2030–2040. These research results can offer decision-making support information related to future planning strategies in urban environments in consideration of regional climate change.

  6. Designing Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, P. C.; ORyan, C.

    2012-12-01

    In a time when sensationalism rules the online world, it is best to keep things short. The people of the online world are not passing back and forth lengthy articles, but rather brief glimpses of complex information. This is the target audience we attempt to educate. Our challenge is then to attack not only ignorance, but also apathy toward global climate change, while conforming to popular modes of learning. When communicating our scientific material, it was difficult to determine what level of information was appropriate for our audience, especially with complex subject matter. Our unconventional approach for communicating the carbon crisis as it applies to global climate change caters to these 'recreational learners'. Using story-telling devices acquired from Carolyne's biomedical art background coupled with Peter's extensive knowledge of carbon cycle and ecosystems science, we developed a dynamic series of illustrations that capture the attention of a callous audience. Adapting complex carbon cycle and climate science into comic-book-style animations creates a channel between artist, scientist, and the general public. Brief scenes of information accompanied by text provide a perfect platform for visual learners, as well as fresh portrayals of stale material for the jaded. In this way art transcends the barriers of the cerebral and the abstract, paving the road to understanding.;

  7. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  8. Economic impacts of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Tol, Richard S.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change will probably have a limited impact on the economy and human welfare in the 21st century. The initial impacts of climate change may well be positive. In the long run, the negative impacts dominate the positive ones. Negative impacts will be substantially greater in poorer, hotter, and lower-lying countries. Poverty reduction complements greenhouse gas emissions reduction as a means to reduce climate change impacts. Climate change may affect the growth rate of the economy and ma...

  9. Respondence and feedback of modern sand deserts to climate change--A case study in Gurbantunggut Desert

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    The research on the respondence and feedback of modern sand deserts to the climate change is an important component part in the studies on the global climate change. Deserts respond to the climate change, meanwhile, they affect the climate with their feedback of peculiar environment during the respondence. Many researches on desert climate have been carried out at home and abroad. However, there is little research on the respondence and feedback of modern fixed, semi-fixed and mobile deserts in arid areas to the climate change, in which the factor analysis as well as the parameter changing effects is especially the difficult problem all along. In this note, the parameters of the respondence and feedback of Gurbantunggut Desert to the climate change are measured and analyzed, some variable parameters of water-heat exchange are obtained, and a numerical model of desertification is developed according to a series of climate change of about 40 years and the variable relations of meteorological and physical features of the sand surface in Gurbantunggut Desert.

  10. Climate change, agriculture and poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hertel, Thomas W.; Rosch, Stephanie D

    2010-01-01

    Although much has been written about climate change and poverty as distinct and complex problems, the link between them has received little attention. Understanding this link is vital for the formulation of effective policy responses to climate change. This paper focuses on agriculture as a primary means by which the impacts of climate change are transmitted to the poor, and as a sector at...

  11. The challenges of communicating climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Feresin

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate change issue has become increasingly present in our society in the last decade and central also to communication studies. In the e-book “Communicating Climate Change: Discourses, Mediations and Perceptions”, edited by Anabela Carvalho, various scholars investigate how climate change challenges communication by looking at three main aspects: the discourses of a variety of social actors on climate change; the reconstruction of those discourses in the media; the citizens’ perceptions, understandings and attitudes in relation to climate change.

  12. Climatic change and impacts: a general introduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    These proceedings are divided into six parts containing 29 technical papers. 1. An Overview of the Climatic System, 2. Past climate Changes, 3. Climate Processes and Climate Modelling, 4. Greenhouse Gas Induced Climate Change, 5. Climatic Impacts, 6. STUDENTS' PAPERS

  13. The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

    2000-06-01

    The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

  14. Study on the Climate Changes Characteristics in the Hilly Region of the Loess Plateau and Its Influence on Agricultural Production

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the climate changes characteristics in the hilly region of the loess plateau and its influence on agricultural production.[Method] Taking Yan'an City as an example,and by dint of temperature and precipitation in nine meteorological stations from 1957 to 2007 and accumulated anomaly curve,linear regression and relevant analysis,the climate changes characteristics in 51 years in Yan'an were expounded.The climate changes in the hilly region of the loess plateau were studied and...

  15. Boundary layer stability and Arctic climate change: a feedback study using EC-Earth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bintanja, R.; Linden, van der E.C.; Hazeleger, W.

    2012-01-01

    Amplified Arctic warming is one of the key features of climate change. It is evident in observations as well as in climate model simulations. Usually referred to as Arctic amplification, it is generally recognized that the surface albedo feedback governs the response. However, a number of feedback m

  16. Prospects of tools from differential games in the study of macroeconomics of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engwerda, Jacob; Bernard, L.; Semmler, W.

    2015-01-01

    In this chapter we sketch a dynamic framework within which the discussion on the macro economic effects of climate change take place. The problem setting is characterized by scientific uncertainties about the development of climate, potential large economic losses, and specific characteristics of hu

  17. Prospects of Tools from Differential Games in the Study Of Macroeconomics of Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engwerda, J.C.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: In this note we sketch a dynamic framework within which the discussion on the macro economic effects of climate change take place. The problem setting is characterized by scientific uncertainties about the development of climate, potential large economic losses and human beings having thei

  18. Cenozoic Mammals and Climate Change: The Contrast between Coarse-Scale versus High-Resolution Studies Explained by Species Sorting

    OpenAIRE

    Donald Prothero

    2012-01-01

    Many paleontologists have noticed the broadly similar patterns between the changes in Cenozoic mammalian diversity and taxonomic dominance and climate changes. Yet detailed studies of fossil population samples with fine-scale temporal resolution during episodes of climate change like the Eocene-Oligocene transition in the White River Group, and the late Pleistocene at Rancho La Brea tar pits, demonstrates that most fossil mammal species are static and show no significant microevolutionary res...

  19. Climate and climate change and infectious disease risk in Thailand: A spatial study of dengue hemorrhagic fever using GIS and remotely-sensed imagery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzera, Kristopher

    The scientific community has widely accepted that climate plays a key role in the sustainability and transmission of many infectious diseases. Global climate change can potentially trigger the spread of disease into new regions and increase the intensity of disease in regions where it is endemic. This study explores the association between monthly conditions of climate change to changes in disease risk, emphasizing the potential spread of dengue fever due to climate change in Thailand. This study also develops techniques new to GIS and remote sensing that generate surfaces of daily minimum temperature toward identifying areas at greater transmission risk. Dengue fever expansion due to global warming is a serious concern for Thailand where warming temperatures may increase the size of the habitat of the disease-spreading vector, Aedes aegypti, particularly during cooler months when transmission is limited by environmental conditions. In this study, first, the association between past dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and climate in Thailand is determined. Second, evidence of recent climate change is related to changes in DHF rates. Third, daily minimum temperature is derived from remote sensing toward identifying the spatial and temporal limitations of potential transmission risk. The results indicate that minimum temperature has recently experienced a rapid increase, particularly in the winter months when transmission is low. This is associated with a recent rise in winter DHF cases. As increasing minimum temperatures in these regions are anticipated to continue, we can expect dengue transmission rates to also increase throughout the year.

  20. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  1. Scenarios of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article provides an overview of current and prospected climate changes, their causes and implied threats, and of a possible route to keep the changes within a tolerable level. The global mean temperature has up to 2005 risen by almost 0.8 C deg., and the change expected by 2100 is as large as glacial-interglacial changes in the past, which were commonly spread out over 10 000 years. As is well known, the principle actor is man-made CO2, which, together with other anthropogenic gases, enhances the atmosphere's greenhouse effect. The only man-made cooling agent appears to be atmospheric aerosols. Atmospheric CO2 has now reached levels unprecedented during the past several million years. Principal threats are a greatly reduced biodiversity (species extinction), changes in the atmospheric precipitation pattern, more frequent weather extremes, and not the least, sea level rise. The expected precipitation pattern will enhance water scarcity in and around regions that suffer from water shortage already, affecting many countries. Sea level rise will act on a longer time scale. It is expected to amount to more than 50 cm by 2100, and over the coming centuries the potential rise is of the order of 10 m. A global-mean temperature increase of 2 C deg. is often quoted as a safe limit, beyond which irreversible effects must be expected. To achieve that limit, a major, rapid, and coordinated international effort will be needed. Up to the year 2050, the man-made CO2 releases must be reduced by at least 50%. This must be accompanied by a complete overhaul of the global energy supply toward depending increasingly on the Sun's supply of energy, both directly and in converted form, such as wind energy. Much of the information and insight available today has been generated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in particular its Fourth Assessment Report of 2007, which greatly advanced both public attention and political action. (author)

  2. Comparative study on change in groundwaters of rural and urban areas in Korea: effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Sang Woong; Seul Kim, Ye; Kim, Dong Hyun; Kim, Ho Chul; Shin, Min Cheol; Park, Jae Yong; Kim, Heejung; Lee, Jin-Yong

    2013-04-01

    Groundwater occupies a considerable proportion of the world's water resources and is affected by climate change. It is important to understand how water budget responds to future precipitation variability for sustainable management of groundwater resources. In order to evaluate the effects of climate change on groundwater resources in the future, it is necessary to not only collect field data but also predict groundwater change using some groundwater numerical modelling. In this study, a relevant climate change scenario (RCP 4.5) was adopted and Visual MODFLOW was used as a main tool for predicting water budget. The predicted precipitation and air temperature data were obtained from Climate Change Information Center (CCIC) of Korea. By using the data on the scenario from 2011 to 2100, the future water budget was calculated using groundwater numerical modelling for both Wonju (WJ: urban area) and Yanggu (YG: rural area) of Gangwon Province in Korea. The model calibration was done by the groundwater level measured at 10 monitoring wells. For the numerical prediction, the groundwater recharge (WJ: 10.1%, YG: 13.3%) was estimated using watertable fluctuation (WTF) method and a concept of threshold precipitation (WJ: 240.5 mm, YG: 363.8 mm) was applied. Consequently, the water levels in both Wonju and Yanggu showed gradually increasing trends and ranged from 3.0 to 10.8 m, from 0.5 to 1.8 m in 2100, respectively. Under annual precipitation fluctuation on the scenario (2011-2100), water budget IN-OUT value (-0.87~1.07 m3/day) in Wonju city gradually increases while that (-0.73~0.46 m3/day) of Yanggu county does not. However, its annual difference is enlarged with year for both areas. The results indicate that securing groundwater resource and its management will be difficult because of frequent annual change of the groundwater storage. This work was supported by Science High School R&E program (No. C1008804-01-01) and the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) grant

  3. Modelling climate change impacts on tourism demand: A comparative study from Sardinia (Italy) and Cap Bon (Tunisia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köberl, Judith; Prettenthaler, Franz; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    Tourism represents an important source of income and employment in many Mediterranean regions, including the island of Sardinia (Italy) and the Cap Bon peninsula (Tunisia). Climate change may however impact tourism in both regions, for example, by altering the regions' climatic suitability for common tourism types or affecting water availability. This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on tourism in the case study regions of Sardinia and Cap Bon. Direct impacts are studied in a quantitative way by applying a range of climate scenario data on the empirically estimated relationship between climatic conditions and tourism demand, using two different approaches. Results indicate a potential for climate-induced tourism revenue gains especially in the shoulder seasons during spring and autumn, but also a threat of climate-induced revenue losses in the summer months due to increased heat stress. Annual direct net impacts are nevertheless suggested to be (slightly) positive in both case study regions. Significant climate-induced reductions in total available water may however somewhat counteract the positive direct impacts of climate change by putting additional water costs on the tourism industry.

  4. Modelling climate change impacts on tourism demand: A comparative study from Sardinia (Italy) and Cap Bon (Tunisia).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köberl, Judith; Prettenthaler, Franz; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    Tourism represents an important source of income and employment in many Mediterranean regions, including the island of Sardinia (Italy) and the Cap Bon peninsula (Tunisia). Climate change may however impact tourism in both regions, for example, by altering the regions' climatic suitability for common tourism types or affecting water availability. This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on tourism in the case study regions of Sardinia and Cap Bon. Direct impacts are studied in a quantitative way by applying a range of climate scenario data on the empirically estimated relationship between climatic conditions and tourism demand, using two different approaches. Results indicate a potential for climate-induced tourism revenue gains especially in the shoulder seasons during spring and autumn, but also a threat of climate-induced revenue losses in the summer months due to increased heat stress. Annual direct net impacts are nevertheless suggested to be (slightly) positive in both case study regions. Significant climate-induced reductions in total available water may however somewhat counteract the positive direct impacts of climate change by putting additional water costs on the tourism industry. PMID:25891683

  5. How do the media affect public perception of climate change and geohazards? An Italian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasquaré, Federico A.; Oppizzi, Paolo

    2012-06-01

    This paper uses a combination of a qualitative approach and a quantitative, software-based approach to explore the Italian print media construction of climate change and geohazards between 2007 and 2010. We have broken down our analysis in two sections: the first one deals with the coverage of climate change; the second one focuses on the media representation of hydrogeological hazards and extreme events in Italy. Our software-based, qualitative and quantitative analysis of 1253 storylines from two major Italian broadsheets (the La Repubblica and the Corriere della Sera) has enabled us to assess the presence of typical journalistic frames such as conflict and dramatization, as well as newly-introduced ones such as "prevention vs damages", and "weather vs climate". Our results show that the two newspapers appear to have different "agendas" that might have different impacts on their own readerships: the La Repubblica has been on the forefront of forging a broad public consensus on the need for actions aimed at tackling climate change, whereas the Corriere della Sera has gradually built a journalistic agenda aimed at minimizing the urgency of the climate change problem. As regards the media's representation of hydrogeological hazards, we have confirmed what assessed by previous research, i.e. that Italian journalists still prefer to focus on damages rather than prevention; on a better note, the tendency of the Italian press to confuse weather with climate, blaming climate change for extreme rainfalls causing landslides and floods, has decreased in the last four years.

  6. The effect of climate change on electricity needs – A case study from Mediterranean Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper assesses additional electricity requirements and the associated costs in the Mediterranean island of Cyprus by the mid-21st century because of projected anthropogenic climate change, following an interdisciplinary approach that combines climate science with economics. An econometric model of electricity demand is used, in conjunction with climate projections from a state-of-the-art Global Circulation Model with a regional focus on the Eastern Mediterranean. Annual electricity demand is projected to rise by about 6% compared to a ‘no climate change’ case. Although these additional power requirements are not very remarkable on an annual basis, total costs up to 2050, which may exceed 730 million Euros at today's prices, imply that the country may need to forgo one or two years of economic growth in order to cope with extra electricity needs due to climate change. This outlook indicates that a reasonable future energy path in regions with Mediterranean climate would involve substantial deployment of solar-powered electricity generation, which can meet peak load requirements while reducing the country's energy dependence. Moreover, this forecast highlights the need for adaptation to climate change through investments in the improvement of the energy performance of the building stock. - Highlights: • Assessment of additional electricity needs in Cyprus because of climate change. • Use of econometric model of electricity demand and regional climate projections. • Annual electricity demand to rise by 6% by 2050 due to climate change. • Welfare losses of up to more than 150 million Euros (at 2010 prices) per year. • Impacts can be tackled by use of solar power and energy efficiency improvements

  7. The climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper has been developed to show how the future of the climate of our planet could become. The factors that takes places in this possible change are also carefully explained. The human action over the environment is probably disturbing the atmospheric system. The processes that involves this perturbations are shown: pollution, fires in hugh regions such as Amazonia Central Australia, Central and East Africa and some others. Factors like these seems are destroying the ozone shell. We also explain the problems to be sure that the expectatives for the future are reliable. Finally, we propose some solutions for this situation. Special situations like nuclear winter or the desertization are also included. (Author)

  8. Living with poverty and climate change – a study on vulnerability to climate-related shocks on household level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Kristian Thor

    , especially at high altitudes. As an effect of these increased risks, humanitarian disasters caused by weather-related shocks are likely to increase in both number and severity. In that sense, it is vital to understand how people living in disaster-prone areas are handling such changes, and how the risk......Projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) show that likely increases in the frequencies and intensities of extreme weather events are expected to have mostly adverse effects on natural and human systems (IPCC, 2007). Thus, the risk of suffering from an extreme weather...... addressing the environmental risks alone, but instead explores options that could assist households in achieving persistent welfare gains, no matter whether the expected outcomes of climate change in terms of extreme weather events are realized or not. In doing so, this thesis represents an effort...

  9. Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available A probabilistic assessment of climate change and related impacts should consider a large range of potential future climate scenarios. State-of-the-art climate models, especially coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and Regional Climate Models (RCMs cannot, however, be used to simulate such a large number of scenarios. This paper presents a methodology for obtaining future climate scenarios through a simple scaling methodology. The projections of several key meteorological variables obtained from a few regional climate model runs are scaled, based on different global-mean warming projections drawn in a probability distribution of future global-mean warming. The resulting climate change scenarios are used to drive a hydrological and a water management model to analyse the potential climate change impacts on a water resources system. This methodology enables a joint quantification of the climate change impact uncertainty induced by the global-mean warming scenarios and the regional climate response. It is applied to a case study in Switzerland, a water resources system formed by three interconnected lakes located in the Jura Mountains. The system behaviour is simulated for a control period (1961–1990 and a future period (2070–2099. The potential climate change impacts are assessed through a set of impact indices related to different fields of interest (hydrology, agriculture and ecology. The results obtained show that future climate conditions will have a significant influence on the performance of the system and that the uncertainty induced by the inter-RCM variability will contribute to much of the uncertainty of the prediction of the total impact. These CSRs cover the area considered in the 2001–2004 EU funded project SWURVE.

  10. Strategic Planning for Land Use under Extreme Climate Changes: A Case Study in Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Wen-Cheng Huang; Yi-Ying Lee

    2016-01-01

    Extreme weather caused by global climate change affects slope-land in Taiwan, causing soil loss, floods, and sediment hazards. Although Taiwan is a small island, the population density is ranked second highest worldwide. With three-fourths of the island area being slope-land, soil and water conservation (SWC) is crucial. Therefore, because of the impact of climate and social change, the means of maintaining sustainable development of slope-land and the safety of the living environment in Taiw...

  11. Factors Affecting Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Environmental Degradation and Climate Change Effects: A Farm Level Study in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed Nasir Uddin; Wolfgang Bokelmann; Jason Scott Entsminger

    2014-01-01

    Offering a case study of coastal Bangladesh, this study examines the adaptation of agriculturalists to degrading environmental conditions likely to be caused or exacerbated under global climate change. It examines four central components: (1) the rate of self-reported adoption of adaptive mechanisms (coping strategies) as a result of changes in climate; (2) ranking the potential coping strategies based on their perceived importance to agricultural enterprises; (3) identification the socio-ec...

  12. Brief Communication: An update of the article "Modelling flood damages under climate change conditions - a case study for Germany"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fokko Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Burghoff, Olaf; Hoffmann, Peter; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

    2016-07-01

    In our first study on possible flood damages under climate change in Germany, we reported that a considerable increase in flood-related losses can be expected in a future warmer climate. However, the general significance of the study was limited by the fact that outcome of only one global climate model (GCM) was used as a large-scale climate driver, while many studies report that GCMs are often the largest source of uncertainty in impact modelling. Here we show that a much broader set of global and regional climate model combinations as climate drivers show trends which are in line with the original results and even give a stronger increase of damages.

  13. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  14. Climate change and related activities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The production and consumption of energy contributes to the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and is the focus of other environmental concerns as well. Yet the use of energy contributes to worldwide economic growth and development. If we are to achieve environmentally sound economic growth, we must develop and deploy energy technologies that contribute to global stewardship. The Department of Energy carries out an aggressive scientific research program to address some of the key uncertainties associated with the climate change issue. Of course, research simply to study the science of global climate change is not enough. At the heart of any regime of cost-effective actions to address the possibility of global climate change will be a panoply of new technologies-technologies both to provide the services we demand and to use energy more efficiently than in the past. These, too, are important areas of responsibility for the Department. This report is a brief description of the Department's activities in scientific research, technology development, policy studies, and international cooperation that are directly related to or have some bearing on the issue of global climate change

  15. Reduction of the air traffic's contribution to climate change: A REACT4C case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grewe, Volker; Champougny, Thierry; Matthes, Sigrun; Frömming, Christine; Brinkop, Sabine; Søvde, Ole Amund; Irvine, Emma A.; Halscheidt, Lucia

    2014-09-01

    Air traffic alters the atmospheric composition and thereby contributes to climate change. Here we investigate the trans-Atlantic air traffic for one specific winter day and analyse, which routing changes were required to achieve a reduction in the air traffic's contribution to climate change. We have applied an atmosphere-chemistry model to calculate so-called five dimensional climate cost functions (CCF), which describe the climate effect of a locally confined emission. The five dimensions result from the emission location (3D), time (1D) and the type of emission (1D; carbon dioxide, water vapour, nitrogen oxides). In other words, carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour (H2O) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) are emitted in amounts typical for aviation at many confined locations and times and their impacts on climate calculated with the atmosphere-chemistry model. The impact on climate results from direct effects, such as the changes in the concentration of the greenhouse gases CO2 and H2O and indirect effects such as contrail cirrus formation and chemical changes of ozone and methane by emissions of NOx. These climate cost functions are used by a flight planning tool to optimise flight routes with respect to their climate impact and economic costs of these routes. The results for this specific winter day show that large reductions in the air traffic's contribution to climate warming (up to 60%) can be achieved for westbound flights and smaller reductions for eastbound flights (around 25%). Eastbound flights take advantage of the tail winds from the jet stream and hence routings with lower climate impacts have a large fuel penalty, whenever they leave the jet stream. Maximum reduction in climate impact increases the economic costs by 10-15%, due to higher fuel consumption, caused by a longer flight distance and lower flight levels. However, with only small changes to the air traffic routings and flight altitudes, climate reductions up to 25% can be achieved by only small

  16. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Bonch-Osmolovskiy, Misha

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a methodology for regional disaggregated estimation and mapping of the areas that are ex-ante the most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and variability and applies it to Tajikistan, a mountainous country highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The authors construct the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natura...

  17. Study on the Future Climate Change and Its Influence on the Growth Stage and Yield of Wheat in Weifang City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jing; YUAN; Jianping; XU; Lijuan; SUN; Xiuzhen; ZHANG; Xiaoli; WANG

    2015-01-01

    In order to study the trend of climate change in the future in Weifang,and analyze the impact of climate change on the local wheat production,the air temperature and precipitation in Weifang from 2021 to 2050 were simulated by using the regional climate model PRECIS.And then put the meteorological data into the crop model to simulate the growth of wheat under climate change conditions in the future.The results showed that there would be a trend of rising temperature and increasing precipitation in Weifang in the future.Climate warming would result in growth period of wheat to be ahead of schedule and yield reduction.If taking into account the effect of CO2,the yield of wheat would increase.

  18. The transnational regime complex for climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Kenneth W Abbott

    2012-01-01

    In climate change, as in other areas, recent years have produced a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of transnational institutions, standards, financing arrangements, and programs. As a result, climate governance has become complex, fragmented, and decentralized, operating without central coordination. Most studies of climate governance focus on inter­state institutions. In contrast, I map a different realm of climate change governance: the diverse array of transnational schemes. I analyze this emerging s...

  19. Isotopes in Hydrology, Marine Ecosystems and Climate Change Studies, Vol. 2. Proceedings of the International Symposium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Humanity is facing many water related challenges, including access to safe water, pollution of continental and coastal waters and ocean acidification, as well as the growing impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle. Many countries are confronted by increasingly stressed water resources due to rapidly growing populations, increasing agricultural and energy production demands, industrial development, and pollution. The greatest issues of the 21st century, including competition for resources and possible related conflicts, may well focus on the role of water in food and energy security. For more than 50 years, the IAEA has played a key role in advancing and promoting the development and use of isotope techniques to address global environmental issues, such as water resources assessment and management, the study of marine ecosystems, and more recently the impact of climate change. This symposium was jointly organized by the Water Resources Programme and IAEA Environment Laboratories to commemorate the 50th anniversary of the establishment of the IAEA laboratory in the Principality of Monaco, and represented the 13th edition of the quadrennial symposium on isotope hydrology and water resources management, which has been regularly organized by the IAEA since 1963. The main objectives of the symposium were to review the state of the art in isotope hydrology, the use of isotopes in the study of climatic systems and in marine ecosystems and to outline recent developments in the application of isotope techniques, as well as to identify future trends and developments for research and applications. The contributions submitted by the authors are included in two volumes of proceedings with editorial corrections. These proceedings are intended to serve as an aid for those using isotopes for applied problems in hydrology as well as for the research community

  20. How People Reason: A Grounded Theory Study of Scientific Reasoning about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiyu

    Scientific reasoning is crucial in both scientific inquiry and everyday life. While the majority of researchers have studied "how people reason" by focusing on their cognitive processes, factors related to the underpinnings of scientific reasoning are still under-researched. The present study aimed to develop a grounded theory that captures not only the cognitive processes during reasoning but also their underpinnings. In particular, the grounded theory and phenomenographic methodologies were integrated to explore how undergraduate students reason about competing theories and evidence on global climate change. Twenty-six undergraduate students were recruited through theoretical sampling. Constant comparative analysis of responses from interviews and written assessments revealed that participants were mostly drawn to the surface features when reasoning about evidence. While prior knowledge might not directly contribute to participants' performance on evidence evaluation, it affected their level of engagement when reading and evaluating competing arguments on climate issues. More importantly, even though all participants acknowledged the relative correctness of multiple perspectives, they predominantly favored arguments that supported their own beliefs with weak scientific reasoning about the opposing arguments. Additionally, factors such as personal interests, religious beliefs, and reading capacity were also found to have bearings on the way participants evaluated evidence and arguments. In all, this work contributes to the current endeavors in exploring the nature of scientific reasoning. Taking a holistic perspective, it provides an in-depth discussion of factors that may affect or relate to scientific reasoning processes. Furthermore, in comparison with traditional methods used in the literature, the methodological approach employed in this work brought an innovative insight into the investigation of scientific reasoning. Last but not least, this research may

  1. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  2. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  3. Effects of climate change on regional energy systems focussing on space heating and cooling: A case study of Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hausl Stephan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change affects regions differently and therefore also climate change effects on energy systems need to be analyzed region specific. The objective of the study presented is to show and analyze these effects on regional energy systems following a high spatial resolution approach. Three regional climate scenarios are downscaled to a 1 km resolution and error corrected for three different testing regions in Austria. These climate data are used to analyze effects of climate change on heating and cooling demand until the year 2050. Potentials of renewable energies such as solar thermal, photovoltaic, ambient heat and biomass are also examined. In the last process step the outcomes of the previous calculations are fed into two energy system models, where energy system optimizations are executed, which provide information concerning optimal setups and operations of future energy systems. Due to changing climate strong changes for the energy demand structure are noticed; lower heat demand in winter (between -7 and -15% until 2050 and - strongly differing between regions - higher cooling demand in summer (up to +355%. Optimization results show that the composition of energy supply carriers is barely affected by climate change, since other developments such as refurbishment actions, price developments and regional biomass availabilities are more influencing within this context.

  4. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    In northern regions, climate change can include changes in precipitation magnitude and frequency, reductions in sea ice extent and thickness, and climate warming and cooling. These changes can increase the frequency and severity of storms, flooding, or erosion; other changes may include drought o...

  5. Voluntary business activities to mitigate climate change: Case studies in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voluntary business activities, such as the voluntary action plans conducted by comprehensive business associations in Japan to reduce environmental damage, are viable policy instruments alongside regulations and economic incentives (e.g. taxes and emissions trading schemes). This paper examines three case studies in which voluntary activities have played a successful role in mitigating climate change. Based on interviews with business organisations together with a literature review and data analysis, we show why businesses are motivated to take socially responsible actions and describe the major benefits of such activities. One of the important benefits of voluntary activities is their flexibility in phasing measures. This flexibility is greatly appreciated, since industries are able to retain control of their responses to future uncertainties, which allows them to tackle climate change issues aggressively. We conclude that voluntary activities have been more environmentally effective than alternative policy measures under a proper institutional framework, which consists of effective motivation mechanisms for businesses, governmental measures to encourage their compliance, and capable industrial associations that can lessen the transaction costs both of the government and of industry. - Highlights: • Businesses are well motivated to take suitable, technologically feasible actions. • Capability of industrial associations is a key to successful voluntary activities. • Flexibility allows businesses to manage uncertainty and aim for ambitious goals

  6. Country Case Study on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Assessment in Antigua and Barbuda Water Resources Management

    OpenAIRE

    Damhaug, T.; Fernandez, J. (Javier)

    1998-01-01

    This Report is a summary of findings from a mission to Antigua & Barbuda August 12 - 16, 1997. The quality and quantity of fresh water resources in Antigua and Barbuda are particularly vulnerable to climate change. The study addressed the following interconnected climate change issues (i) impacts on the national hydrological cycle and water resources availability (ii) impact on water demand and water supply economics and (iii) necessary adaptation measures to build the country's preparedness ...

  7. Climate change, wine, and conservation

    OpenAIRE

    Hannah, L.; Roehrdanz, PR; Ikegami, M; Shepard, AV; Shaw; Tabor, G; Zhi, L; Marquet, PA; Hijmans, RJ

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to impact ecosystems directly, such as through shifting climatic controls on species ranges, and indirectly, for example through changes in human land use that may result in habitat loss. Shifting patterns of agricultural production in response to climate change have received little attention as a potential impact pathway for ecosystems. Wine grape production provides a good test case for measuring indirect impacts mediated by changes in agriculture, because viticul...

  8. Climate change and catchment hydrology

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Conor

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to alter catchment hydrology through changes in extremes of flooding and drought. River catchments are complex, dynamic systems and it is important to develop our understanding of how these systems are likely to respond to changes in climate. Work is ongoing in using EC-Earth simulations to further our understanding of how climate change will affect catchment hydrology and flood risk. In Ireland, the importance of this task is emphasised ...

  9. Climate Change Education in Earth System Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hänsel, Stephanie; Matschullat, Jörg

    2013-04-01

    The course "Atmospheric Research - Climate Change" is offered to master Earth System Science students within the specialisation "Climate and Environment" at the Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg. This module takes a comprehensive approach to climate sciences, reaching from the natural sciences background of climate change via the social components of the issue to the statistical analysis of changes in climate parameters. The course aims at qualifying the students to structure the physical and chemical basics of the climate system including relevant feedbacks. The students can evaluate relevant drivers of climate variability and change on various temporal and spatial scales and can transform knowledge from climate history to the present and the future. Special focus is given to the assessment of uncertainties related to climate observations and projections as well as the specific challenges of extreme weather and climate events. At the end of the course the students are able to critically reflect and evaluate climate change related results of scientific studies and related issues in media. The course is divided into two parts - "Climate Change" and "Climate Data Analysis" and encompasses two lectures, one seminar and one exercise. The weekly "Climate change" lecture transmits the physical and chemical background for climate variation and change. (Pre)historical, observed and projected climate changes and their effects on various sectors are being introduced and discussed regarding their implications for society, economics, ecology and politics. The related seminar presents and discusses the multiple reasons for controversy in climate change issues, based on various texts. Students train the presentation of scientific content and the discussion of climate change aspects. The biweekly lecture on "Climate data analysis" introduces the most relevant statistical tools and methods in climate science. Starting with checking data quality via tools of exploratory

  10. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…

  11. Interpretation of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptations by Local Household Farmers:a Case Study at Bin County, Northeast China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Qiang-yi; WU Wen-bin; LIU Zhen-huan; Peter H Verburg; XIA Tian; YANG Peng; LU Zhong-jun; YOU Liang-zhi; TANG Hua-jun

    2014-01-01

    Although climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations have been studied extensively, how smallholder farmers perceive climate change and adapt their agricultural activities is poorly understood. Survey-based data (presents farmers’ personal perceptions and adaptations to climate change) associated with external biophysical-socioeconomic data (presents real-world climate change) were used to develop a farmer-centered framework to explore climate change impacts and agricultural adaptations at a local level. A case study at Bin County (1980s-2010s), Northeast China, suggested that increased annual average temperature (0.6°C per decade) and decreased annual precipitation (46 mm per decade, both from meteorological datasets) were correctly perceived by 76 and 66.9%, respectively, of farmers from the survey, and that a longer growing season was conifrmed by 70%of them. These reasonably correct perceptions enabled local farmers to make appropriate adaptations to cope with climate change:Longer season alternative varieties were found for maize and rice, which led to a signiifcant yield increase for both crops. The longer season also affected crop choice:More farmers selected maize instead of soybean, as implicated from survey results by a large increase in the maize growing area. Comparing warming-related factors, we found that precipitation and agricultural disasters were the least likely causes for farmers’ agricultural decisions. As a result, crop and variety selection, rather than disaster prevention and infrastructure improvement, was the most common ways for farmers to adapt to the notable warming trend in the study region.

  12. Potential Effects of Climate Change on Ecological Interaction Outcomes Between Two Disease-Vector Mosquitoes: A Mesocosm Experimental Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonel, B F; Koroiva, R; Hamada, N; Ferreira-Keppler, R L; Roque, F O

    2015-09-01

    The objective of this study was to experimentally assess the effects of different climate change scenarios on the outcomes of interactions between Aedes aegypti (L.) and Culex quinquefasciatus (Say) (Diptera: Culicidae) larvae. The experimental design maintained a constant density of specimens while the proportion of the species in different experimental climate change scenarios varied. Our results indicate that survival of the two species was not affected, but larval development and pupation times decreased under elevated atmospheric CO(2) concentration and high air temperature. In climate change scenarios with both species together, the survival of Ae. aegypti increased and its larval development time decreased with increasing density of Cx. quinquefasciatus. This may be attributed to the effects of intraspecific competition being more significant than interspecific competition in Ae. aegypti. Our study also reveals that climatic changes may affect the patterns of interactions between Cx. quinquefasciatus and Ae. aegypti. Alterations in climatic conditions changed the response of context-dependent competition, indicating the importance of studies on how ecological interactions will be affected by projected future climatic change. PMID:26336208

  13. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith;

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  14. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  15. Climate change policy position

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP) is a firm believer in the need to take action to mitigate the risks associated with climate change, and that clear government policy is called for. The principles of sustainable development must guide this policy development effort. The initiatives required to address greenhouse gas emissions over both the short and long term must be carefully considered, and it is up to industries to ensure their production efficiency and emission intensity. Promoting improved performance of industries in Canada and developing technology that can be deployed internationally for larger global effects represents Canada's best contribution to progress on greenhouse gas emissions. The increase in energy demand along with increases in population and economic growth have contributed to an increase in greenhouse gas emissions despite improved energy efficiency in industry. Significant damage to the economy will result if Canada is to meet its commitment under the Kyoto Protocol, forcing the country to buy large quantities of foreign credits instead of using those funds for increased research and development. CAPP indicated that an effective plan must be: balanced, equitable, responsible, competitive, focused on technology and innovation, and based on agreements on sectoral plans. Each of these principles were discussed, followed by the fundamentals of approach for upstream oil and gas. The framework for climate change policy was described as well as the elements of a sector plan. CAPP wants to work with all levels of government on an appropriate plan for Canada, that considers our unique circumstances. Canada can play a significant role on the international stage by properly implementing the policy position proposed by the CAPP without unnecessary risks to the economy. refs

  16. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  17. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  18. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  19. Climate change and forest ecosystem dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Effects of climate change on water relations in forests were studied using several modelling approaches. Of several models tested, the FORGRO model had the highest potential for a reliable estimation of effects of climate change on forests. An evaluation of process-based models of forest growth showed that several models, including FORGRO, were able to produce accurate estimates of carbon and water fluxes at several forest sites of Europe. Responses were in relatively good agreement with the expected responses obtained by experimental studies, and models were able to deal with new conditions and explore the likely effects of climate change. The effect of climate change on forest development was assessed for three forests stands in the Netherlands using a gap model which was made climate sensitive by including the effects of climate change scenario IPCC IS92A on growth (FORGRO results), phenology (FORGRO results), and seed production (regression analysis). Results showed that climate change is likely to cause subtle changes rather than abrupt changes in forest development in the Netherlands, and that forest development on sandy soils in the Netherlands is not likely to be influenced significantly by climate change over the coming 50 years. The impact of climate change on the production, nature and recreation values of forests was studied using a simple economic model, and showed that response are likely to be relatively small during the first century, and are related to the successional status of the forest. Linking of detailed process-based models with gap models enables interpretation of climate change effects beyond a change in tree growth only, and is an important tool for investigating the effects of climate change on the development of mixed forests. The modelling approach presented in this project (process-based growth models -> gap models -> economic model) is a useful tool to support policy decisions in the light of climate change and forests. refs

  20. Climate Change in China : Exploring Informants' Perceptions of Climate Change through a Qualitative Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Lipin, Tan

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is not only a natural phenomenon, but also a global social issue. Many studies try to explore the mechanisms behind climate change and the consequences of climate change, and provide information for developing the measures to mitigate or adapt to it. For example, the IPCC reviews and assesses climate-change-related scientific information produced worldwide, thus aiming to support decision-making from a scientific perspective. However, though various international and regional c...

  1. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  2. A whole ecosystem approach to studying climate change in interior Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riggins, Susan; Striegl, Robert; McHale, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Yukon River Basin Principal Investigators Workshop; Portland, Oregon, 18-20 January 2011; High latitudes are known to be particularly susceptible to climate warming, leading to an emphasis of field and modeling research on arctic regions. Subarctic and boreal regions such as the Yukon River Basin (YRB) of interior Alaska and western Canada are less well studied, although they encompass large areas that are vulnerable to changes in forest composition, permafrost distribution, and hydrology. There is an urgent need to understand the resiliency and vulnerability of these complex ecosystems as well as their feedbacks to the global climate system. Consequently, U.S. Geological Survey scientists, with other federal agency, university, and private industry partners, is focusing subarctic interdisciplinary studies on the Beaver Creek Wild and Scenic River watershed (http://www.blm.gov/pgdata/content/ak/en/prog/nlcs/beavercrk_nwsr.html) and Yukon Flats National Wildlife Refuge (http://yukonflats.fws.gov/) in the YRB, south and west of Fort Yukon, Alaska. These areas are national treasures of wetlands, lakes, and uplands that support large populations of wildlife and waterfowl and are home to vibrant native Alaskan communities that depend on the area for a subsistence lifestyle.

  3. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  4. Global warming and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A panel discussion was held to discuss climate change. Six panelists made presentations that summarized ozone depletion and climate change, discussed global responses, argued against the conventional scientific and policy dogmas concerning climate change, examined the effects of ultraviolet radiation on phytoplankton, examined the effects of carbon taxes on Canadian industry and its emissions, and examined the political and strategic aspects of global warming. A question session followed the presentations. Separate abstracts have been prepared for the six presentations

  5. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  6. Wealth reallocation and sustainability under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenichel, Eli P.; Levin, Simon A.; McCay, Bonnie; St. Martin, Kevin; Abbott, Joshua K.; Pinsky, Malin L.

    2016-03-01

    Climate change is often described as the greatest environmental challenge of our time. In addition, a changing climate can reallocate natural capital, change the value of all forms of capital and lead to mass redistribution of wealth. Here we explain how the inclusive wealth framework provides a means to measure shifts in the amounts and distribution of wealth induced by climate change. Biophysical effects on prices, pre-existing institutions and socio-ecological changes related to shifts in climate cause wealth to change in ways not correlated with biophysical changes. This implies that sustainable development in the face of climate change requires a coherent approach that integrates biophysical and social measurement. Inclusive wealth provides a measure that indicates sustainability and has the added benefit of providing an organizational framework for integrating the multiple disciplines studying global change.

  7. A Case Study in Caribbean Climate Change: Impacts on Crop Suitability and Small Farmer Vulnerability in St. Elizabeth, Jamaica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curtis, W. R.; Gamble, D. W.; Popke, J.

    2013-12-01

    This paper examines some of the implications of climate change for farming in the Caribbean, through an analysis of future crop suitability and a case study of climate variability and agricultural practices in St. Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica. To assess potential changes in Caribbean agriculture, we present results from a water budget model based on a 100-year regional climate projection of temperature and precipitation for the circum-Caribbean basin. We find that future water deficits in the region are climate type-dependent. Savanna climates experience the largest annual changes, while semi-arid environments are greatly impacted in the spring. When the impacts of temperature and precipitation are considered separately, we find that predicted future warming, and the associated increase in evapotranspiration, has a slightly larger climatological effect on crop water need than predicted decreases in precipitation. To illustrate how a changing climate regime may impact agricultural practices, we present results from recent fieldwork in St. Elizabeth Parish, one of the main farming regions on the island of Jamaica. Drawing on data from farmer interviews and a recently-installed weather mesonet, we highlight the ways in which local microclimates influence farmer livelihood strategies and community-level vulnerability. Initial results suggest that farmers are experiencing greater climate variability, and that communities with Savanna and semi-arid type climates may be more susceptible to drought than communities in wetter, higher-elevation microclimates. These changes have enhanced the importance of irrigation technology and water management strategies for successful farming. In this context, we argue, large, well-capitalized farmers may be better able to manage the uncertainties associated with climate change, leading to an uneven landscape of vulnerability across the region.

  8. Climatic Design and Changing Social Needs in the Tropics: A Case Study in Kuching, Sarawak

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Karol

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available On the periphery of most urban centres in the tropics, many new houses are being constructed in previously rural areas. However, the design of these houses shows little respect for local climate or local lifestyle, as they are now developer-constructed brick-and-concrete houses on smaller lots rather than community-built housing on large lots. This paper proposes a set of design strategies that acknowledges the particular needs related to climate and changing lifestyle in these tropical zones. Using case study methodology, the design strategies are tested on a prototype for an actual site in Tapah Village on the periphery of Kuching, Sarawak. In order to gauge the thermal performance of the prototype it was thermally simulated. The thermal simulation of the prototype showed that temperatures generally remained within an acceptable range without air-conditioning. An informal workshop was held in Tapah to gauge social acceptance of the design strategies. The prototype demonstrated that specific design strategies, some based on traditional designs, are essential in the tropics in order to minimise the need for air conditioning. These design strategies were acknowledged as important by the local community, although there was concern about the potential increase in the capital cost of such housing.

  9. [Relationships between climate change and rice development and its yield formation: a simulation study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Taoju; Yin, Xinyou; Qi, Changhan; Tang, Jianjun; Chen, Meiqiu

    2005-03-01

    With the application of mechanistic model (RICAM 1.3, RIce growth Calendar Model), this paper simulated the rice development and its yield formation under different climatic conditions at multi-locations of Asia. A three-stage Beta model (3s-Beta) was developed to predict the flowering stage of rice and to describe its three successive phases of photo-thermal response, i.e., basic vegetative phase, photoperiod-sensitive phase, and post photoperiod-sensitive phase. The 1980-1989 multi-location data of Morioka (Japan, 39 degrees 43'N), Nanchang (China, 28 degrees 36'N) and Los Banos (Philippines, 14 degrees 11'N) were used to verify the suitability of the model in studying ecosystem change. Comparisons of simulated results with observed data showed that this model could generally predict the eco-physiological processes of rice, and performed very well over a wide range of environments.

  10. Public Opinion on Global Climate Change in Developed Countries: Five Case Studies

    OpenAIRE

    Durfee, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Developed countries are more likely to be high emitters of green-house gases, and it is important that these countries are aware of the issue of global climate change and possible human contributions to that problem. Given their status as developed countries, one would think that public opinion on the sources of global climate change would be similar across nations, but this is not true. There is a lack of consensus among countries about the effects of human activity on global temperature var...

  11. Climate change - a natural hazard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kininmonth, William

    2003-07-01

    The impacts of weather and climate extremes (floods, storms, drought, etc) have historically set back development and will continue to do so into the future, especially in developing countries. It is essential to understand how future climate change will be manifest as weather and climate extremes in order to implement policies of sustainable development. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate that natural processes have caused the climate to change and it is unlikely that human influences will dominate the natural processes. Any suggestion that implementation of the Kyoto Protocol will avoid future infrastructure damage, environmental degradation and loss of life from weather and climate extremes is a grand delusion. (Author)

  12. Climate Change and the Social Factor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Lars Kjerulf; Jensen, Anne; Nielsen, Signe Svalgaard

    risks and concerns of everyday life? The project found that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. The prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting......This poster reports from a explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The aim of the project was to explore how people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation, what risks are associated with climate change and how are those risks balanced with other...... ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. People have a high level of trust in socio-technical systems and feel that adaptation measures primarily should be taken by the authorities....

  13. Global climate change and international security

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rice, M.

    1991-01-01

    On May 8--10, 1991, the Midwest Consortium of International Security Studies (MCISS) and Argonne National Laboratory cosponsored a conference on Global Climate Change and International Security. The aim was to bring together natural and social scientists to examine the economic, sociopolitical, and security implications of the climate changes predicted by the general circulation models developed by natural scientists. Five themes emerged from the papers and discussions: (1) general circulation models and predicted climate change; (2) the effects of climate change on agriculture, especially in the Third World; (3) economic implications of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; (4) the sociopolitical consequences of climate change; and (5) the effect of climate change on global security.

  14. Spurring climate-friendly behaviour change: a case study of the university of Grenoble

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is definitely a huge challenge for the 21. century. Models in energy economics show that efficiency gains through energy productivity improvement, technical change and technological innovations towards lower carbon technologies will not be sufficient to achieve the ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), i.e. stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Mitigation actions that stem from individual behaviour change towards a lower individual carbon footprint are also part of the response to the climate challenge. Depending on their current behaviour, individuals may focus on many different actions to reduce their carbon footprint, be they at home, at work or any other place: for example, they can use the public transportation system or ride their bike instead of driving their car, video conference instead of flying to a conference or a meeting, turn the heating system off if they open the window when it is cold outside or if they are out of town for some time, turn the lights off when leaving a room, set their computer in sleep mode when not using it for some time, install sockets to shut off the standby modes of their multi-media devices, reduce the amount of waste they generate by purchasing products in bulk or with little packaging, consume local products rather than goods imported from other regions or countries, follow a diet with a low-meat content, and much more. All those actions, as insignificant as they seem to be in terms of individual energy savings and greenhouse gas emission reductions, do have a real impact at the macro-economic level. Furthermore, they are often 'low-hanging fruit' options, easy to implement at nearly zero cost. Studies that illustrate this point are numerous and cover all GHG emitting sectors. For example, lowering room temperatures by 1 deg. C is estimated to save 7

  15. Climate change impacts on marine water quality: The case study of the Northern Adriatic sea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzi, J; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Zabeo, A; Brigolin, D; Carniel, S; Pastres, R; Marcomini, A

    2016-01-30

    Climate change is posing additional pressures on coastal ecosystems due to variations in water biogeochemical and physico-chemical parameters (e.g., pH, salinity) leading to aquatic ecosystem degradation. With the main aim of analyzing the potential impacts of climate change on marine water quality, a Regional Risk Assessment methodology was developed and applied to coastal marine waters of the North Adriatic. It integrates the outputs of regional biogeochemical and physico-chemical models considering future climate change scenarios (i.e., years 2070 and 2100) with site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators. Results showed that salinity and temperature will be the main drivers of changes, together with macronutrients, especially in the area of the Po' river delta. The final outputs are exposure, susceptibility and risk maps supporting the communication of the potential consequences of climate change on water quality to decision makers and stakeholders and provide a basis for the definition of adaptation and management strategies. PMID:26152856

  16. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  17. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  18. Objective local weather types with applications in climate change detection and impact studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mika, Janos; Razsi, Andras; Wypych, Agnieszka; Ustrnul, Zbigniew

    2014-05-01

    sampling and in detection of climate change in terms of weather. Examples of both aspects will be presented in the study. I.e. frequency variations of the individual types are analysed and efficiency of the local types are also verified against various human mortality data, as well, as air pollution indicators. The study has been supported by the TÉT 10-1-2011-0037 Polish-Hungarian bi-lateral project. Keywords: synoptic climatology, climate change, mortality, air pollution, Hungary, Poland.

  19. Urban Impact Assessment and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change in Europe: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. For example, the summer 2003 European heat wave caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. As around 75% of Europe's population resides in urban areas, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of seasonal to decadal-scale climate variability on urban areas and their populations. This study aims at downscaling the spatially coarse resolution CMIP5 climate predictions to the local urban scale and investigating the relation between heat waves and the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect). The resulting heat stress effect is not only driven by climatic variables but also impacted by urban morphology. Moreover, the exposure varies significantly with the geographical location. All this information is coupled with relevant socio-economic datasets such as population density, age structure, etc. focussing on human health. The analyses are conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. The end-user needs have been consolidated in a climate services plan including the production of heat risk exposure maps and the analysis of various scenarios considering e.g. the uncertainty of the global climate predictions, urban expansion over time and the impact of mitigation measures such as green roofs. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for the design and management of climate resilient cities.

  20. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  1. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  2. The International Climate Change Regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamin, Farhana; Depledge, Joanna

    2005-01-01

    Aimed at the increasing number of policy-makers, stakeholders, researchers, and other professionals working on climate change, this volume presents a detailed description and analysis of the international regime established in 1992 to combat the threat of global climate change. It provides a comprehensive accessible guide to a high-profile area of international law and politics, covering not only the obligations and rights of countries, but ongoing climate negotiations as well.

  3. Ground water and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Taylor, Richard G; Scanlon, Bridget; Döll, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2013-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the...

  4. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  5. Climate change: The challenges for public health preparedness and response- An Indian case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patil Rajan

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available Extremes weather changes surpassing their usual statistical ranges and tumbling records in India could be an early warning bell of global warming. Extreme weather events like the recent record setting in western Indian city of Mumbai or all time high fatalities due to the heat wave in southern Indian states or increasing vulnerability of easten Indian states to flood could all be a manifestation of climate change in the Asian subcontinent. While the skeptics may be inclined to dismiss these events as simple local aberrations, when viewed in an epidemiological paradigm in terms of person, time and space couple with frequency, intensity and fatalities, it could well be an early manifestation of climate change. Global warming poses serious challenge to the health sector and hence warrants emergency health preparedness and response. Climate-sensitive diseases are among the largest global killers, hence major brunt of global climate change in terms of adverse health impact will be mostly borne by poor and developing countries in Asia, given the levels of poverty, nutional levels and poor public health infrastructure.

  6. A Study of Teacher Candidates' Experiences Investigating Global Climate Change within an Elementary Science Methods Course

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hestness, Emily; McGinnis, J. Randy; Riedinger, Kelly; Marbach-Ad, Gili

    2011-01-01

    We investigated the inclusion of a curricular module on global climate change in an Elementary Science Methods course. Using complementary research methods, we analyzed findings from 63 teacher candidates' drawings, questionnaires, and journal entries collected throughout their participation in the module. We highlighted three focal cases to…

  7. Evaluation of probable maximum snow accumulation: Development of a methodology for climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Iris M.; Rousseau, Alain N.; Frigon, Anne; Freudiger, Daphné; Gagnon, Patrick

    2016-06-01

    Probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA) is one of the key variables used to estimate the spring probable maximum flood (PMF). A robust methodology for evaluating the PMSA is imperative so the ensuing spring PMF is a reasonable estimation. This is of particular importance in times of climate change (CC) since it is known that solid precipitation in Nordic landscapes will in all likelihood change over the next century. In this paper, a PMSA methodology based on simulated data from regional climate models is developed. Moisture maximization represents the core concept of the proposed methodology; precipitable water being the key variable. Results of stationarity tests indicate that CC will affect the monthly maximum precipitable water and, thus, the ensuing ratio to maximize important snowfall events. Therefore, a non-stationary approach is used to describe the monthly maximum precipitable water. Outputs from three simulations produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model were used to give first estimates of potential PMSA changes for southern Quebec, Canada. A sensitivity analysis of the computed PMSA was performed with respect to the number of time-steps used (so-called snowstorm duration) and the threshold for a snowstorm to be maximized or not. The developed methodology is robust and a powerful tool to estimate the relative change of the PMSA. Absolute results are in the same order of magnitude as those obtained with the traditional method and observed data; but are also found to depend strongly on the climate projection used and show spatial variability.

  8. Elements and value-added of a human security approach in the study of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.R. Gasper (Des)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ To present climate change as an issue of human security means to focus on the impacts and implications in the lives of ordinary people, not only in the agendas of armies, states or national economies. It means, for example, looking at life expectancies and patterns of n

  9. Effects of climate change on coastal groundwater systems: A modeling study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Essink, Gualbert; Van Baaren, Esther S.; De Louw, Perry G.B.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change in combination with increased anthropogenic activities will affect coastal groundwater systems throughout the world. In this paper, we focus on a coastal groundwater system that is already threatened by a relatively high seawater level: the low‐lying Dutch Delta. Nearly one third of t

  10. Competencies Demonstrated by Municipal Employees during Adaptation to Climate Change: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneau, Diane; Kerry, Jackie; Blain, Sylvie; Evichnevetski, Evgueni; Deguire, Paul; Barbier, Pierre-Yves; Freiman, Viktor; Therrien, Jimmy; Langis, Joanne; Lang, Mathieu

    2013-01-01

    Since coastal communities are already subjected to the impacts of climate change, adaptation has become a necessity. This article presents competencies demonstrated by Canadian municipal employees during an adaptation process to sea level rise. To adapt, the participants demonstrated the following competencies: problem solving (highlighting…

  11. Culture, climate change and farm-level groundwater management: An Australian case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Matthew R.; Curtis, Allen L.

    2016-05-01

    Cultural factors - values, beliefs, and norms - provide important insights into the environmental attitudes, risk perceptions, and behaviors of the general population. Little is known, however, about the ostensibly complex relationships linking those elements of culture to climate change risk perceptions, especially in the context of farm level decision in the ground water context. This paper addresses that gap through an analysis of survey data provided by irrigators in the Namoi catchment of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. We use Values-Beliefs-Norms theory to construct multivariate models of the relationship between ground water irrigators' interpretations of climate change risks and their implementation of adaptive water conservation practices. Results indicate that these cultural factors are important explanations of irrigators' climate change risk perceptions, and these risk perceptions are related to adaptive ground water management strategies at the farm level. The implications of the findings are discussed for research on the culture-environment nexus and for outreach designed to encourage agricultural adaptations to climate change.

  12. Atmospheric sulfur and climate changes: a modelling study at mid and high-southern latitudes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The mid and high-southern latitudes are still marginally affected by anthropogenic sulfur emissions. They are the only regions in the world where the natural cycle of the atmospheric sulfur may still be observed. Sulfur aerosols are well-known for their radiative impact, and thus interact with climate. Climate can in turn affect atmospheric sulfur sources, distribution and chemistry. Antarctic ice cores provide information on the evolution of climate and sulfur deposition at the surface of the ice sheet at glacial-interglacial time scales. The aim of this thesis is to develop and use modeling towards a better understanding of the atmospheric sulfur cycle in antarctic and sub-antarctic regions. Ice core data are used to validate model results under glacial climate conditions. An Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) coupled to a sulfur chemistry module is used: the LMD-ZTSulfur model, version 4. An update of both the physical and chemical parts of the model. The model was first performed. The impact of there changes on modelled sulfur cycle are evaluated for modern climate. Further, boundary conditions are adapted to simulate the atmospheric circulation and sulfur cycle at the Last Glacial Maximum, approximately 20,000 years ago. In the model, sulfur is found to be highly sensitive to antarctic sea-ice coverage, which is still poorly known during the ice age. An original dataset of ice-age sea-ice coverage was developed. Its impact on the oceanic emissions of dimethyl sulfide, main precursor of sulfur aerosols at high-southern latitudes, is discussed. Using the same oceanic sulfur reservoirs as for present day climate, the model broadly reproduces the glacial deposits of sulfur aerosols on the Antarctic plateau, suggesting little impact of climate on oceanic sulfur production in the Antarctic region. Sensitivity tests were carried out to draw an up-to-date status of major uncertainties and difficulties facing future progress in understanding atmospheric

  13. Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about

  14. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  15. Climate change negotiation simulations for students: responses across gender and age.A case study: San Francisco State University World Climate Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasheva, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    For decades, role-play and simulation exercises have been utilized for learning and policy decision making. While the power of Model UN simulations in building first-person experience and understanding of complex international issues is well known, the effectiveness of simulations for inspiring citizen engagement in scientific public-policy issues is little studied. My work hypothesizes that climate-change negotiation simulations can enhance students' scientific literacy and policy advocacy. It aims to determine how age and gender influence the responsiveness of students to such simulations. During the 2015 fall semester, I am conducting World Climate exercises for fellow graduate and undergraduate students at San Francisco State University. At the end of the exercise, I will have collected the responses to an anonymous questionnaire in which the participants indicate age and gender. The questionnaire asks participants to describe their hopes and fears for the future and to propose public and personal actions for achieving a strong climate change agreement. I am tracking differences to determine whether participants' age and gender correlate with particular patterns of feeling and thinking. My future research will aim to determine whether and how strongly the World Climate Exercise has affected participants' actual policy engagement. This work will also reflect on my experiences as a World Climate facilitator. I will describe the facilitation process and then discuss some of my observations from the sessions. I will specify the challenges I have encountered and suggest strategies that can strengthen the learning process. World Climate is a computer-simulation-based climate change negotiations role-playing exercise developed by Climate Interactive in partnership with the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

  16. Climate change: The challenges for public health preparedness and response- An Indian case study

    OpenAIRE

    Patil Rajan; Deepa T

    2007-01-01

    Extremes weather changes surpassing their usual statistical ranges and tumbling records in India could be an early warning bell of global warming. Extreme weather events like the recent record setting in western Indian city of Mumbai or all time high fatalities due to the heat wave in southern Indian states or increasing vulnerability of easten Indian states to flood could all be a manifestation of climate change in the Asian subcontinent. While the skeptics may be inclined to dismiss these e...

  17. Nuclear Energy and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Méritet, Sophie; Zaleski, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The paper will discuss the possibilities of the development of nuclear energy in the world in the midterm and long term. It will correlate the prospects with the emissions of CO2 and the effects on climate change. In particular it will discuss the problems nuclear energy face to make a large contribution of climate change issue.

  18. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  19. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  20. Congress Assesses Climate Change Paleodata

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bierly, Eugene W.

    2006-08-01

    The `hockey stick' graph of surfacetemperature change overthe past millennium and implicationsfor climate change assessments wasthe subject of two hearings held by the U.S.House of Representatives Energy and CommerceSubcommittee on Oversight andInvestigations, on 19 and 27 July. These hearingsmarked only the second time that thecommittee has discussed climate issuessince George W. Bush became president.

  1. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  2. Climate Change, Growth, and Poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Hull, Katy

    2008-01-01

    Equity emerged as the principal theme during the Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) week session 'climate change, growth and poverty,' where presenters addressed the distributional consequences of climate change, as well as countries' unequal capacity to cope with the twin challenges of adaptation and mitigation. They highlighted actions to strengthen the global knowledge bas...

  3. Food security under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertel, Thomas W.

    2016-01-01

    Using food prices to assess climate change impacts on food security is misleading. Differential impacts on income require a broader measure of household well-being, such as changes in absolute poverty.

  4. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm managemen

  5. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  6. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on 'Climate Change Mitigation in Africa' between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  7. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R. [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  8. Study on the change of the Tibetan Plateau climate system and the mechanism of its impact on eastern Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yaoming

    2014-05-01

    As the Third Pole of the earth, the Tibetan Plateau is an important water source of Asia. The 10 major rivers in China and abroad developed from the Tibet Plateau and provide living and production water for 1/3 of the world's population in East Asia and South Asia. The powerful dynamic and thermal effects of the Tibet Plateau significantly affect the East Asian climate pattern, the process of the Asian monsoon and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation. Global change influences the processes of hydrosphere and cryosphere on the Tibetan Plateau, changes the ecosystem and environment within the plateau, and affects the socio-economic development and living condition of people in the region. In addition to that, through atmospheric circulation and water cycle, global change directly impacts water security and nature disaster protection in East Asia and surrounding nations. In order to study on the change of the Tibetan Plateau climate system and the mechanism of its impact on eastern Asia, one Chinese national research programme was launched in 2010. The research progresses of the programme in the past four years will be introduced. The research progresses are including five parts: the establishment an integrated network platform for the Tibetan Plateau and its surrounding area "water - cryosphere -atmosphere -biology" observation; the study on the relation between the Tibet Plateau land surface-atmosphere interaction and atmospheric circulation anomalies; the study on the interactions among atmosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere on the Tibetan Plateau feeding back to climate change; the study on the Tibetan Plateau climate system feeding back to East Asian regional climate change and its mechanism; and the study on the Tibetan Plateau ecological and socio-economic systems responding to climate change and adaptations.

  9. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.;

    2011-01-01

    climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...... between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non...... sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies...

  10. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  11. Assessing climate change effects on mountain ecosystems using integrated models: A case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagre, Daniel B.; Running, Steven W.; Keane, Robert E.; Peterson, David L.

    2005-01-01

    Mountain systems are characterized by strong environmental gradients, rugged topography and extreme spatial heterogeneity in ecosystem structure and composition. Consequently, most mountainous areas have relatively high rates of endemism and biodiversity, and function as species refugia in many areas of the world. Mountains have long been recognized as critical entities in regional climatic and hydrological dynamics but their importance as terrestrial carbon stores has only been recently underscored (Schimel et al. 2002; this volume). Mountain ecosystems, therefore, are globally important as well as unusually complex. These ecosystems challenge our ability to understand their dynamics and predict their response to climatic variability and global-scale environmental change.

  12. Climate change and marine vertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sydeman, William J; Poloczanska, Elvira; Reed, Thomas E; Thompson, Sarah Ann

    2015-11-13

    Climate change impacts on vertebrates have consequences for marine ecosystem structures and services. We review marine fish, mammal, turtle, and seabird responses to climate change and discuss their potential for adaptation. Direct and indirect responses are demonstrated from every ocean. Because of variation in research foci, observed responses differ among taxonomic groups (redistributions for fish, phenology for seabirds). Mechanisms of change are (i) direct physiological responses and (ii) climate-mediated predator-prey interactions. Regional-scale variation in climate-demographic functions makes range-wide population dynamics challenging to predict. The nexus of metabolism relative to ecosystem productivity and food webs appears key to predicting future effects on marine vertebrates. Integration of climate, oceanographic, ecosystem, and population models that incorporate evolutionary processes is needed to prioritize the climate-related conservation needs for these species. PMID:26564847

  13. The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaj M. Hansen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Mercury (Hg is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic followed by Europe (6% and North America (5%, with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition.

  14. The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

    2015-01-01

    Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

  15. Vulnerability of indigenous health to climate change: a case study of Uganda's Batwa Pygmies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrang-Ford, Lea; Dingle, Kathryn; Ford, James D; Lee, Celine; Lwasa, Shuaib; Namanya, Didas B; Henderson, Jim; Llanos, Alejandro; Carcamo, Cesar; Edge, Victoria

    2012-09-01

    The potential impacts of climate change on human health in sub-Saharan Africa are wide-ranging, complex, and largely adverse. The region's Indigenous peoples are considered to be at heightened risk given their relatively poor health outcomes, marginal social status, and resource-based livelihoods; however, little attention has been given to these most vulnerable of the vulnerable. This paper contributes to addressing this gap by taking a bottom-up approach to assessing health vulnerabilities to climate change in two Batwa Pygmy communities in rural Uganda. Rapid Rural Appraisal and PhotoVoice field methods complemented by qualitative data analysis were used to identify key climate-sensitive, community-identified health outcomes, describe determinants of sensitivity at multiple scales, and characterize adaptive capacity of Batwa health systems. The findings stress the importance of human drivers of vulnerability and adaptive capacity and the need to address social determinants of health in order to reduce the potential disease burden of climate change.

  16. Singapore Students' Misconceptions of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Chew-Hung; Pascua, Liberty

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is an important theme in the investigation of human-environment interactions in geographic education. This study explored the nature of students' understanding of concepts and processes related to climate change. Through semi-structured interviews, data was collected from 27 Secondary 3 (Grade 9) students from Singapore. The data…

  17. The response of glaciers to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klok, Elisabeth Jantina

    2003-01-01

    The research described in this thesis addresses two aspects of the response of glaciers to climate change. The first aspect deals with the physical processes that govern the interaction between glaciers and climate change and was treated by (1) studying the spatial and temporal variation of the glac

  18. Climate change adaptation planning in large cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Araos, Malcolm; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Lesnikowski, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    Cities globally face significant risks from climate change, and are taking an increasingly active role in formulating and implementing climate change adaptation policy. However, there are few, if any, global assessments of adaptation taking place across cities. This study develops and applies a f

  19. Climate Change Effects Overwintering of Insects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vukasinovic, Dragana

    Climate change is modifying winter conditions rapidly and predicting species’ reactions to global warming has been the “the holy grail” of climate sciences, especially for managed systems, like agro-ecosystems. Intuitively, increased winter temperatures should release insects from coldinduced...... of a rapid, contemporary evolution, optimal formeasuring species response under constant selection pressure, including organismal physiology.Thus, the methodological approach applied in this study, could prove a valuable tool for improving predictability of field population dynamics during climate change....

  20. El Nino in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Yeh, S. W.; Kug, J.S.; Dewitte, Boris; Kwon, M. H.; Kirtman, B. P.; Jin, F.F.

    2009-01-01

    El Nino events, characterized by anomalous warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, have global climatic teleconnections and are the most dominant feature of cyclic climate variability on subdecadal timescales. Understanding changes in the frequency or characteristics of El Nino events in a changing climate is therefore of broad scientific and socioeconomic interest. Recent studies(1-5) show that the canonical El Nino has become less frequent and that a different kind of El Nino has b...

  1. Mitigating climate change: The Philippine case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Government of the Philippines signed the UN Framework Convention on Climate change on June 12, 1992 and the Philippine Congress ratified it in 1994. The Philippine Government has also subsequently created the Inter-Agency Committee on Climate Change (IACCC). The GOP is currently preparing the Philippine Country Study to address climate change. The first phase of the work was financed by a grant from the US Country Studies Program which is led by the US Department of Energy. The Study includes the following elements: a) development of a National Inventory of GHG emission and Sinks; b) vulnerability assessment and evaluation of adaptations of coastal resources; c) identification of alternative programs and measures to promote mitigation and/or adaptation to climate change; d) public information and education campaign; and e) development of the National Action Plan on Climate Change. (au)

  2. Global topics and novel approaches in the study of air pollution, climate change and forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, Pierre; Augustaitis, Algirdas; Belyazid, Salim; Calfapietra, Carlo; de Marco, Alessandra; Fenn, Mark; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Grulke, Nancy; He, Shang; Matyssek, Rainer; Serengil, Yusuf; Wieser, Gerhard; Paoletti, Elena

    2016-06-01

    Research directions from the 27th conference for Specialists in Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystems (2015) reflect knowledge advancements about (i) Mechanistic bases of tree responses to multiple climate and pollution stressors, in particular the interaction of ozone (O3) with nitrogen (N) deposition and drought; (ii) Linking genetic control with physiological whole-tree activity; (iii) Epigenetic responses to climate change and air pollution; (iv) Embedding individual tree performance into the multi-factorial stand-level interaction network; (v) Interactions of biogenic and anthropogenic volatile compounds (molecular, functional and ecological bases); (vi) Estimating the potential for carbon/pollution mitigation and cost effectiveness of urban and peri-urban forests; (vii) Selection of trees adapted to the urban environment; (viii) Trophic, competitive and host/parasite relationships under changing pollution and climate; (ix) Atmosphere-biosphere-pedosphere interactions as affected by anthropospheric changes; (x) Statistical analyses for epidemiological investigations; (xi) Use of monitoring for the validation of models; (xii) Holistic view for linking the climate, carbon, N and O3 modelling; (xiii) Inclusion of multiple environmental stresses (biotic and abiotic) in critical load determinations; (xiv) Ecological impacts of N deposition in the under-investigated areas; (xv) Empirical models for mechanistic effects at the local scale; (xvi) Broad-scale N and sulphur deposition input and their effects on forest ecosystem services; (xvii) Measurements of dry deposition of N; (xviii) Assessment of evapotranspiration; (xix) Remote sensing assessment of hydrological parameters; and (xx) Forest management for maximizing water provision and overall forest ecosystem services. Ground-level O3 is still the phytotoxic air pollutant of major concern to forest health. Specific issues about O3 are: (xxi) Developing dose-response relationships and

  3. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country's vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations

  4. Climate variability and change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    When Australia's climate should not be definite barrier to the population reaching 30 million by 2050, it is recognised that our climate has limited the development of the nation over the past 200 years. Indeed in 1911, based on a comparison of the climate and development between the US and Australia. Griffith Taylor predicted that Australia's population would be 19 million at the end of the 20th century, which is a pretty good 90-year forecast. The climate constraint is not only due to much of the country being semi-arid with an annual rainfall below 400 millimetres, but also due to the large year-to-year variability of rainfall across the country

  5. The Study on Ecological Treatment of Saline Lands to Mitigate the Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiancang; Zhu, Jiwei; Wang, Tao

    2010-05-01

    The soil water and salt movement is influenced strongly by the frequent droughts, floods and climate change. Additionally, as continued population growth, large-scale reclaiming of arable land and long-term unreasonable irrigation, saline land is increasing at the rate of 1,000,000~15,000,000 mu each year all over the world. In the tradition management, " drainage as the main " measure has series of problem, which appears greater project, more occupation of land, harmful for water saving and downstream pollution. To response the global climate change, it has become the common understanding, which promote energy-saving and environment protection, reflect the current model, explore the ecological management model. In this paper, we take severe saline land—Lubotan in Shaanxi Province as an example. Through nearly 10 years harnessing practice and observing to meteorology, hydrology, soil indicators of climate, we analyze the influence of climate change to soil salinity movement at different seasons and years, then put forward and apply a new model of saline land harnessing to mitigate the Effects of Climate Change and self-rehabilitate entironment. This model will be changed "drainage" to "storage", through the establishment engineering of " storage as the main ", taken comprehensive measures of " project - biology - agriculture ", we are changing saline land into arable land. Adapted to natural changes of climate, rainfall, irrigation backwater, groundwater level, reduced human intervention to achieve system dynamic equilibrium. During the ten years, the salt of plough horizon has reduced from 0.74% to 0.20%, organic matter has increased from 0.7% to 0.92%, various indicators of soil is begining to go better. At the same time, reduced the water for irrigation, drainage pollution and investment costs. Through the model, reformed severe saline land 18,900 mu, increased new cultivated land 16,500 mu, comprehensive efficient significant, ensured the coordinated

  6. Land Use And Land Cover Dynamics Under Climate Change In Urbanizing Intermountain West: A Case Study From Cache County, Utah

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Enjie

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is tightly linked with urbanization. Urban development with increasing greenhouse gas emission worsens climate change, while climate change in turn influence hydroclimate and ecosystem functions, and indirectly affect urban systems. The Intermountain West is experiencing rapid urban growth, climate change interacting with urbanization poses new challenges to the Intermountain West. Urban planning needs to adapt to these new changes and constrains, and to develop new tools and p...

  7. Hydrological investigation for climate change adaptations in the Kou Basin Burkina Faso.  : A Minor Field Study.

    OpenAIRE

    Palm, Per-Martin

    2011-01-01

    One of the biggest upcoming challenges to the international community is the problem of a changing climate. The earth’s surface temperature is rising and associated impacts on physical and biological systems are increasingly being observed. Science tells us that climate change will bring about gradual changes, such as sea level rise, and shifts of climate zones due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. A changing climate affects the entire world but will strike hard...

  8. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

    2016-07-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

  9. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  10. Land use and management change under climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies: a U.S. case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Jianhong E.; Wein, Anne; McCarl, Bruce

    2015-01-01

    We examine the effects of crop management adaptation and climate mitigation strategies on land use and land management, plus on related environmental and economic outcomes. We find that crop management adaptation (e.g. crop mix, new species) increases Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 1.7 % under a more severe climate projection while a carbon price reduces total forest and agriculture GHG annual flux by 15 % and 9 %, respectively. This shows that trade-offs are likely between mitigation and adaptation. Climate change coupled with crop management adaptation has small and mostly negative effects on welfare; mitigation, which is implemented as a carbon price starting at $15 per metric ton carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent with a 5 % annual increase rate, bolsters welfare carbon payments. When both crop management adaptation and carbon price are implemented the effects of the latter dominates.

  11. Undocumented migration in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riosmena, Fernando; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.

    2016-01-01

    In the face of climate change induced economic uncertainty, households may employ migration as an adaptation strategy to diversify their livelihood portfolio through remittances. However, it is unclear whether such climate migration will be documented or undocumented. In this study we combine detailed migration histories with daily temperature and precipitation information for 214 weather stations to investigate whether climate change more strongly impacts undocumented or documented migration from 68 rural Mexican municipalities to the U.S. during the years 1986–1999. We employ two measures of climate change, the warm spell duration index (WSDI) and the precipitation during extremely wet days (R99PTOT). Results from multi-level event-history models demonstrate that climate-related international migration from rural Mexico was predominantly undocumented. We conclude that programs to facilitate climate change adaptation in rural Mexico may be more effective in reducing undocumented border crossings than increased border fortification.

  12. Tourism demand, climatic conditions and transport costs: an integrated analysis for the EU regions. Report for the PESETA II study on the impact of climate change in Europe.

    OpenAIRE

    Barrios, Salvador; IBANEZ RIVAS Juan Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study is to analyse the potential impact of climate change on EU tourism demand and to provide long-term (2100) scenarios to be used in the general equilibrium GEM-E3 to allow for potential interactions with the rest of the economy. The analysis is based on a bottom-up approach to derive country-wide figures making use of detailed regional data. Our study brings three novel aspects to the existing literature on recreational demand and climate. First, we derive region-sp...

  13. Environmental impact of climate change in pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change results in the increase or decrease in temperature and rainfall. These have significant impact on environment - impinge agricultural crop yields, affect human health, cause changes to forests and other ecosystems, and even impact our energy supply. Climate change is a global phenomenon and its impact can be observed on Pakistan's economy and environment. This paper contains details concerning the climate change and environmental impacts. It takes into account current and projected key vulnerabilities, prospects for adaptation, and the relationships between climate change mitigation and environment. The purpose of the study is to devise national policies and incentive systems combined with national level capacity-building programs to encourage demand-oriented conservation technologies. Recommendations are also made to abate the climate change related issues in country. (author)

  14. Impact of Climate Change on Sugarcane Crop at Regional Scale: A Study with Remote Sensing and GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shruti, Y.; Gouda, K. C.; P P, N. R.; Bhat, N.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the effect of climate on the growth and yield of sugarcane at the Bagalkot region of Karnataka state in India which generally famous for the sugarcane production in the country. In the present study climate parameters like rainfall, temperature, solar radiation, soil moisture, humidity etc. observed from multi-source observations like remote sensing satellite, NCEP reanalysis, India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations etc. are used to analyze the climate change over the study region in terms of the climatology, inter annual variability and trend analysis of the climate parameters at long term scale. There is a signature of increasing trend in temperature and decreasing trend in the seasonal monsoon rainfall. Impact of drought years on the sugarcane crop has been determined. To quantify the climate change the Land use Land cover (LULC) classification of the region is carried out and the relative changes in different LULC classes are discussed, which shows the agriculture is being decreased in 14 years of the analysis. Then to know the impact of climate parameters and on the sugarcane crop production, the correlation analysis of the climate parameters and sugarcane yield are presented using the real observation and which clearly showed the solar radiation is highly correlated with the sugarcane production compared to other climate parameters (Figure 1). The satellite derived NDVI is used to compute the NDVI Grand Growth Period [∑NDVI(GGP)] and the correlation of it with sugarcane crop yield for the period 2000-2013 and the empirical relation is derived, which can be implemented in future with some weather forecasting models like General Circulation Model (GCM) for the prediction of the sugarcane yield in advance.

  15. Chemistry Teachers' Views on Teaching "Climate Change"--An Interview Case Study from Research-Oriented Learning in Teacher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feierabend, Timo; Jokmin, Sebastian; Eilks, Ingo

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a case study from research-oriented learning in chemistry teacher education. The study evaluates the views of twenty experienced German chemistry teachers about the teaching of climate change in chemistry education. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews about the teachers' experiences and their views about…

  16. Mapping landcover distribution over Canada from Earth Observation data for climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latifovic, R.; Pouilot, D.

    2004-05-01

    We describe the application of earth observation (EO) data for land use and land cover change. Land cover change is identified by IPCC among the causes, or key forcing factors of global change. It is representative of the means by which human adaptation to these changes will occur. This research is part of the Earth Science for National Action on Climate Change project integrated into the NRCan/ESS Climate Change Program and supported by the Canadian Space Agency through Government Related Initiatives Program. The analysis of land-use & land cover changes is approached from three complementary perspectives: 1) monitoring, 2) providing earth observation based spatially explicit input for modeling of processes and 3) assessment of impact on ecological functions. The research is conducted at two spatial scales: regional scale based on 1km resolution data (AVHRR, SPOT VEGETATION, MODIS) and landscape scale, based on medium resolution 30 m data (Landsat ETM/TM and ASTER). The results presented here allow for qualitative assessment of changes in land cover over the Canadian landmass for period 1990-2000. Three land cover maps were produced from enhanced AVHRR surface reflectance time series data. The base map derived from 1995 AVHRR seasonal data was updated backward to produce 1990 and forwarded to produce 2000 land cover maps using a change detection and local classification methodology. Changes for 1990-1995 and 1995-2000 were generated using temporal change detection that employs 10-day composites for the summer seasons. Areas of significant change were extracted using ecoprovince specific thresholds set by comparison with Landsat and provincial fire databases. To classify change areas, local spectral signatures were generated around the change area based on the 1995 landcover map and spectral data for the year to be updated. The pixels within the change area were then classified using these signatures. The approach taken for producing these land cover data ensures

  17. Climate change in EIA - Inspiration from practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    2013-01-01

    taking place. For exploring the praxis of integrating climate change in practice a document study of 100 Danish EIA reports is carried out. From these reports, statistics and examples are drawn. The study shows an emphasis on integration of climate change mitigation, using various quantitative tools......Climate change integration has been a topic of much interest in the field of impact assessment for a period, and thus far quite some emphasis has been put on discussions of purpose, relevance and overall approaches in both Environmental Impact Assessment of projects (EIA) and Strategic...... Environmental Assessments of plans and programmes (SEA). However, EIAs and SEAs are already being made, which integrate climate change, and for some aspects this practice has evolved over a long period. This paper seeks to explore this practice and find inspiration from the work with climate change already...

  18. New renewable energy developments and the climate change issue: a case study of Norwegian politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It is widely agreed that the search for cleaner energy technologies is central to any long-term response to the threat of global climate change. Many countries are thus promoting the adoption of new renewable energy (NRE) sources and technologies within the context of energy and climate change policies. The scope of this paper is to unfold linkages between public policies and NRE developments using Norway as a case in point. The aims are firstly to assess the impacts of policy design and public priorities in terms of technology and industrial development dynamics, and secondly to discuss the role attributed to the climate change issue. The primary conclusion is that in spite of long-lasting public efforts, NRE sources represent only a pitiable fraction of the energy produced, delivered, and consumed in Norway, and only modest industrial development dynamics have taken place. Among the most important reasons for this poor outcome are (i) weak demand-side policies, (ii) fluctuating patterns in public priorities, and (iii) low electricity prices. The Norwegian experience substantiates claims that effective public strategies should be firmly based upon long-term commitments, employ a combination of policies and measures conducive to technical change and innovation, and be capable of guarding against path dependence. (author)

  19. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  20. LCA as a decision support tool in policy making: the case study of Danish spring barley production in a changed climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niero, Monia; Ingvordsen, Cathrine Heinz; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky;

    2015-01-01

    Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) can support policy makers in the choice of the most effective measures to adapt to climate change in crop production. A case study involving spring barley cultivation in Denmark under changed climate conditions has been performed using primary data from future climate ...

  1. Challenges and potentials in using alternative landscape futures during climate change: A literature review and survey study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Rastandeh

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study focuses on the feasibility of applying alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning during climate change to provide a wider perspective and deeper understanding of this approach for better use and more effective application in the future. The study consists of a literature review and an analysis of recent applied projects carried out worldwide. In addition, an electronic survey was conducted from March to September 2014 to examine viewpoints on the use and application of this approach with reference to climate-change impacts. The survey participants were a group of highly experienced researchers from eighteen countries involved in at least one applied project since 2000 relating to this topic. After analysis of more than forty applied projects, the survey results were incorporated into the analysis to create a comprehensive picture regarding the potentials and limitations of alternative futures and scenario analysis in landscape planning with particular attention to climate change. The findings show that this method is one of the most effective decision-making approaches for adopting landscape policies where landscapes change rapidly under the pressure of urbanisation and climate change. Nevertheless, there is a gap between the advances offered by the approach in various dimensions and the complexity of patterns, uncertainties and upheavals in landscapes due to climate-change impacts in the urbanising world. The research indicates that the approach opens up a great opportunity for decision-makers to expand their perspective and adopt appropriate landscape policies before reaching a point of no return from the sustainability point of view. Meanwhile, there are challenges and barriers in the application of alternative futures and scenario analysis for envisioning the landscapes influenced by climate change and urbanisation that should be pushed back. Although informative, this research raises new questions about this

  2. Dynamic Adaptive Approach to Transportation-Infrastructure Planning for Climate Change: San-Francisco-Bay-Area Case Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wall, T.A.; Walker, W.E.; Marchau, V.A.W.J.; Bertolini, L.

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation of existing infrastructure is a response to climate change that can ensure a viable, safe, and robust transportation network. However, deep uncertainties associated with climate change pose significant challenges to adaptation planning. Specifically, current transportation planning method

  3. Climate change and avian influenza

    OpenAIRE

    Gilbert, Marius; Slingenbergh, Jan; Xiao, Xiangming

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in ...

  4. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    mobilize and redistribute volatile reservoirs both on and below the surface. And for Mars, these variations are large. In the past 20 My, for example, the obliquity is believed to have varied from a low of 15° to a high of 45° with a regular oscillation time scale of ~10^5 years. These variations are typically less than two degrees on the Earth. Mars, therefore, offers a natural laboratory for the study of orbitally induced climate change on a terrestrial planet. Finally, general circulation models (GCMs) for Mars have reached a level of sophistication that justifies their application to the study of spin axis/orbitally forced climate change. With recent advances in computer technology the models can run at reasonable spatial resolution for many Mars years with physics packages that include cloud microphysics, radiative transfer in scattering/absorbing atmospheres, surface heat budgets, boundary layer schemes, and a host of other processes. To be sure, the models will undergo continual improvement, but with carefully designed experiments they can now provide insights into mechanisms of climate change in the recent past. Thus, the geologic record is better preserved, the forcing function is large, and GCMs have become useful tools. While research efforts in each of these areas have progressed considerably over the past several decades, they have proceeded mostly on independent paths occasionally leading to conflicting ideas. To remedy this situation and accelerate progress in the area, the NASA/Ames Research Center's Mars General Circulation Modeling Group hosted a 3-day workshop on May 15-17, 2012 that brought together the geological and atmospheric science communities to collectively discuss the evidence for recent climate change on Mars, the nature of the change required, and how that change could be brought about. Over 50 researchers, students, and post-docs from the US, Canada, Europe, and Japan attended the meeting. The program and abstracts from the workshop are

  5. Study of climate change related to deforestation in the Xishuangbanna area, Yunnan, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The analysis of the results of deforestation and the meteorological data of the Xinshuangbanna region of China shows that there are possible relations between the deforestation and climate change. With the forest area decreased by 33% during the past 30 years, the climate of this region has also been changed. The annual mean temperature has been increased by 0.7C, of which the increase is 0.97C in the dry season and 0.53C in the wet season. Together with the annual temperature increase the temperature variations have also been increased, which has resulted in more frequent low temperature damage to the local plantation agriculture. The relative humidity decreased by 3% annually; and the annual precipitation also decreased, with a decrease in the wet season of 6.8% and an increase in the dry season of 20.8%

  6. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  7. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  8. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J;

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  9. Geoengineering, climate change scepticism and the 'moral hazard' argument: an experimental study of UK public perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corner, Adam; Pidgeon, Nick

    2014-12-28

    Many commentators have expressed concerns that researching and/or developing geoengineering technologies may undermine support for existing climate policies-the so-called moral hazard argument. This argument plays a central role in policy debates about geoengineering. However, there has not yet been a systematic investigation of how members of the public view the moral hazard argument, or whether it impacts on people's beliefs about geoengineering and climate change. In this paper, we describe an online experiment with a representative sample of the UK public, in which participants read one of two arguments (either endorsing or rejecting the idea that geoengineering poses a moral hazard). The argument endorsing the idea of geoengineering as a moral hazard was perceived as more convincing overall. However, people with more sceptical views and those who endorsed 'self-enhancing' values were more likely to agree that the prospect of geoengineering would reduce their motivation to make changes in their own behaviour in response to climate change. The findings suggest that geoengineering is likely to pose a moral hazard for some people more than others, and the implications for engaging the public are discussed.

  10. A study of the climate change impacts on fluvial flood propagation in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van, P. D. T.; Popescu, I.; van Griensven, A.; Solomatine, D. P.; Trung, N. H.; Green, A.

    2012-12-01

    The present paper investigated the extent of the flood propagation in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta under different projected flood hydrographs, considering the 2000 flood event (the 20-yr return period event, T. V. H. Le et al., 2007) as the basis for computation. The analysis herein was done to demonstrate the particular complexity of the flood dynamics, which was simulated by the 1-D modelling system ISIS used by the Mekong River Commission. The floods of the year 2050 are simulated using a projected sea level rise of +30 cm. The future flood hydrograph changes at Kratie, Cambodia, were also applied for the upstream boundary condition by using an adjusted regional climate model. Two future flood hydrographs were applied at the upstream part of the delta, the first one in a scenario of climate change without considering developments in the Mekong Basin,and the second one in a scenario of climate change taking into account future development of the delta. Analyses were done to identify the areas sensitive to floods, considering the uncertainty of the projection of both the upstream and downstream boundary conditions. In addition, due to the rice-dominated culture in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta, possible impacts of floods on the rice-based farming systems were also analysed.

  11. How does climate change cause extinction?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

    2013-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

  12. Ground water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food secu¬rity will probably intensify under climate chan...

  13. Climate Change in the Social Studies Classroom: A "Why" and "How To" Guide Using the C3 Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumler, Lori M.; Vosburg-Bluem, Bethany

    2014-01-01

    Weather phenomena across the United States have provided heightened attention to climate change in headlines such as "Heavy Rain and Floods: The 'New Normal' with Climate Change?" ("Christian Science Monitor," Aug. 14, 2014); "Delay Action on Climate Change by 10 Years and Costs Rocket 40%"…

  14. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  15. Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damien A Fordham

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.

  16. Assessing ocean vertical mixing schemes for the study of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, A. M.; Lindo, F.; Fells, J.; Tulsee, V.; Cheng, Y.; Canuto, V.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change is a burning issue of our time. It is critical to know the consequences of choosing "business as usual" vs. mitigating our emissions for impacts e.g. ecosystem disruption, sea-level rise, floods and droughts. To make predictions we must model realistically each component of the climate system. The ocean must be modeled carefully as it plays a critical role, including transporting heat and storing heat and dissolved carbon dioxide. Modeling the ocean realistically in turn requires physically based parameterizations of key processes in it that cannot be explicitly represented in a global climate model. One such process is vertical mixing. The turbulence group at NASA-GISS has developed a comprehensive new vertical mixing scheme (GISSVM) based on turbulence theory, including surface convection and wind shear, interior waves and double-diffusion, and bottom tides. The GISSVM is tested in stand-alone ocean simulations before being used in coupled climate models. It is also being upgraded to more faithfully represent the physical processes. To help assess mixing schemes, students use data from NASA-GISS to create visualizations and calculate statistics including mean bias and rms differences and correlations of fields. These are created and programmed with MATLAB. Results with the commonly used KPP mixing scheme and the present GISSVM and candidate improved variants of GISSVM will be compared between stand-alone ocean models and coupled models and observations. This project introduces students to modeling of a complex system, an important theme in contemporary science and helps them gain a better appreciation of climate science and a new perspective on it. They also gain familiarity with MATLAB, a widely used tool, and develop skills in writing and understanding programs. Moreover they contribute to the advancement of science by providing information that will help guide the improvement of the GISSVM and hence of ocean and climate models and ultimately our

  17. Global change and climate-vegetation classification

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    Three phrases of the quantitative study of climate-vegetation classification and their characteristics are presented based on the review of advance in climate-vegetation interaction, a key issue of "global change and terrestrial ecosystems (GCTE)" which is the core project of International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP): (ⅰ) characterized by the correlation between natural vegetation types and climate; (ⅱ) characterized by climatic indices which have obviously been restricted to plant ecophysiology; (ⅲ) characterized by coupling both structure and function of vegetation. Thus, the prospective of climate-vegetation classification for global change study in China was proposed, especially the study coupling climate-vegetation classification models with atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) was emphasized.

  18. Application of Data Mining Techniques in Weather Prediction and Climate Change Studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Folorunsho Olaiya

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Weather forecasting is a vital application in meteorology and has been one of the most scientifically and technologically challenging problems around the world in the last century. In this paper, we investigate the use of data mining techniques in forecasting maximum temperature, rainfall, evaporation and wind speed. This was carried out using Artificial Neural Network and Decision Tree algorithms and meteorological data collected between 2000 and 2009 from the city of Ibadan, Nigeria. A data model for the meteorological data was developed and this was used to train the classifier algorithms. The performances of these algorithms were compared using standard performance metrics, and the algorithm which gave the best results used to generate classification rules for the mean weather variables. A predictive Neural Network model was also developed for the weather prediction program and the results compared with actual weather data for the predicted periods. The results show that given enough case data, Data Mining techniques can be used for weather forecasting and climate change studies.

  19. The french researches on the climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scientists were the first to prevent decision makers on the risk of the climatic change bond to the greenhouse gases emissions. The results of the third GIEC report confirmed that the main part of the global warming of the last 50 years is due to the human activities. This document presents the major results of the french researches during the last five years: the planet observation, the climate evolution study, the simulation of the future climate, the climatic change in France, the impacts of the climatic change on the marine and earth biosphere, the climatic risks and the public policies, the health impacts, the 2003 heat and the research infrastructures. (A.L.B.)

  20. Climate change adaptation under uncertainty in the developing world: A case study of sea level rise in Kiribati

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.

  1. Geoprospective study of a nuclear waste repository. Climatology: climatic changes and glaciations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Within the frame of a contract with the CEC dealing with storage and disposal of radioactive wastes in geological formations, the B.R.G.M. has been involved in a research on climatic changes and glaciations. For over three million years, the terrestrial environment has undergone a climate crisis, which causes are still discussed. 700 000 years ago, the paroxysm of this crisis was caracterized by the development of big ice-caps in the northern hemisphere. The last important glacial expansion - the Wurm- begun 70 000 years ago and ended less than 10 000 years ago. Since then, the climate warmed up slightly again with the ''small glacial age'' between the 16th and the 19th centuries. All glaciers regressed during a warmer phase lasting about one century, but, since 1945, the trend is again to a deep in temperature, the climatologists are not able to agree on its causes and its possible develoment. Considering the amplitude and the frequency of the Quaternary climatic changes, it is difficult to think that the glacial crisis is over. Many arguments let suppose the contrary. Therefore, all evidences lead, to the probability of at least one new glaciation wither the next 100 000 years. The problem is to know its importance and when it will occur. If during the present interglacial time, all ices could melt, one can expect a rise sea-levels of about 80 m. On the contrary, in the case of a future glaciation of the same amplitude as the previous one, the stocking of waters by the ice-caps would bring down the sea-level to 120 m which would lead to an important erosion period and a drastic change in landscapes

  2. A methodology for risk assessment of municipal infrastructure due to climate change: a case study of London, Ontario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowering, E.; Peck, A.; Simonovic, S.

    2009-12-01

    Natural hazards are increasing in severity as a consequence of climate change. These hazards affect all aspects of municipal infrastructure. Thus a region must adapt its policies and procedures to mitigate the increasing risk to its infrastructure. The purpose of this study is to develop and test a methodology for engineering assessment of risk to municipal infrastructure due to climate change. Proposed methodology includes climate, hydrologic and hydraulic modeling as input for engineering risk assessment. Climate analysis uses Weather Generator as a tool to combine Global Circulation Models (GCMs) with regional historical data to output plausible climate scenarios. The present study focuses on flooding and temperature extremes which are relevant to the region under consideration. Hydrologic analysis uses the climate scenarios as input to the HEC-HMS model to determine streamflows. These streamflows are input to the HEC-RAS and GeoHEC-RAS as part of the hydraulic analysis to generate floodplain maps in a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) environment. The engineering risk assessment comprises of both quantitative and qualitative analyses. Water elevations and municipal infrastructure maps are combined using GIS to determine flood inundation levels. These loads are used in combination with infrastructure capacities to evaluate quantitative risk indices. Fuzzy set theory is used to address uncertainties associated with subjective criteria in qualitative analysis. This is accomplished by using membership functions to model ambiguity in various impact data interpretation. These membership functions are created through interviews held with experts in the fields of transportation, water supply and distribution, wastewater management and critical infrastructure management. Membership functions are used in qualitative fuzzy risk assessment. Quantitative and qualitative analysis are combined into risk indices which are spatially represented in GIS as risk maps for each

  3. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  4. Numerical Modeling for Flood Mapping under Climate Change Impacts: Transboundary Dniester River Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheleznyak, Mark; Kolomiets, Pavlo; Dzjuba, Natalia; Ievgen, Ievgen; Sorokin, Maxim; Denisov, Nickolai; Ischuk, Oleksiy; Koeppel, Sonja

    2015-04-01

    The Dniester river is shared by Ukraine and Moldova. Ukraine being both upstream and downstream of Moldova. The basin is especially suffering from heavy floods, often with transboundary impacts: in Ukraine, disastrous floods in July 2008, which were possibly partly caused or exacerbated by climate change. Within the UNECE | ENVSEC project "Reducing vulnerability to extreme floods and climate change in the Dniester river basin" the numerical flood risks mapping for several "hot spots" along the Dniester river was initiated Two transboundary sites: "Mohyliv Podylskiy- Ataki" and "Dubossary HPP-, Mayaki" (in the delta zone) were chosen for flood risk modelling/mapping. . Floodplain inundation at Mohyliv Podylskiy- Ataki during historical and projected extreme floods scenarios is simulated by 2D model COASTOX -UN based on the numerical solution of shallow water equations on unstructured grid. The scenario of extreme flood, July 2008 that caused hazardous flooding of the riverside areas of Mohyliv Podylskiy has been used for model verification and calibration. The floodmarks of the inundated in 2008 streets have been collected and GIS processed to be used together with the data from the city's water gage station for model testing. The comparison of the simulated dynamics of floodplain inundation during 2008 flood with the observed data show good accuracy of the model. The technologies of the flood modeling and GIS based risk assessments verified for this site are implemented for analyses of the vulnerability to extreme floods for Q=7600 m3 / sec inflow to Dniester reservoir ( 1% flood for contemporary climate assessment) and for Q=8700 m3 / sec. that is considered as projection of 1% flood maximum for XXI century The detailed flood mapping was provided for all cases and was shown that 13% increase in water elevation for future extreme flood scenario will provide at 20% increasing of flooded areas in Mohilev Podolsky. For the site Dubossary NPP in Moldova downstream till

  5. Pro-poor Adaptation to Climate Change in Urban Centers: Case Studies of Vulnerability and Resilience in Kenya and Nicaragua

    OpenAIRE

    Moser, Caroline; Norton, Andrew; Stein, Alfredo; Georgieva, Sophia

    2010-01-01

    The objective of this economic sector work (ESW) is to address these gaps by piloting a methodology capable of quickly and cost-effectively introducing into adaptation planning processes an appreciation of the significance of climate change impacts for poor people in informal urban settlements. Specifically in the two case study sites (Mombasa in Kenya and Esteli in Nicaragua) sought to: a...

  6. Climate change impact and adaptation research requires integrated assessment and farming systems analysis: a case study in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Wolf, J.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Schaap, B.F.; Mandryk, M.; Verhagen, J.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Rather than on crop modelling only, climate change impact assessments in agriculture need to be based on integrated assessment and farming systems analysis, and account for adaptation at different levels. With a case study for Flevoland, the Netherlands, we illustrate that (1) crop models cannot acc

  7. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  8. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  9. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  10. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  11. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  12. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  13. Past climate change and plant evolution in Western North America: a case study in Rosaceae.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mats Töpel

    Full Text Available Species in the ivesioid clade of Potentilla (Rosaceae are endemic to western North America, an area that underwent widespread aridification during the global temperature decrease following the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum. Several morphological features interpreted as adaptations to drought are found in the clade, and many species occupy extremely dry habitats. Recent phylogenetic analyses have shown that the sister group of this clade is Potentilla section Rivales, a group with distinct moist habitat preferences. This has led to the hypothesis that the ivesioids (genera Ivesia, Horkelia and Horkeliella diversified in response to the late Tertiary aridification of western North America. We used phyloclimatic modeling and a fossil-calibrated dated phylogeny of the family Rosaceae to investigate the evolution of the ivesioid clade. We have combined occurrence- and climate data from extant species, and used ancestral state reconstruction to model past climate preferences. These models have been projected into paleo-climatic scenarios in order to identify areas where the ivesioids may have occurred. Our analysis suggests a split between the ivesioids and Potentilla sect. Rivales around Late Oligocene/Early Miocene (∼23 million years ago, Ma, and that the ivesioids then diversified at a time when summer drought started to appear in the region. The clade is inferred to have originated on the western slopes of the Rocky Mountains from where a westward range expansion to the Sierra Nevada and the coast of California took place between ∼12-2 Ma. Our results support the idea that climatic changes in southwestern North America have played an important role in the evolution of the local flora, by means of in situ adaptation followed by diversification.

  14. Latest research related to climate change analysis with applications in impact studies over the territory of Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vukovic, Ana; Vujadinovic, Mirjam; Djurdjevic, Vladimir; Cvetkovic, Bojan; Djordjevic, Marija; Ruml, Mirjana; Rankovic-Vasic, Zorica; Przic, Zoran; Stojicic, Djurdja; Krzic, Aleksandra; Rajkovic, Borivoj

    2015-04-01

    Serbia is a country with relatively small scale terrain features with economy mostly based on local landowners' agricultural production. Climate change analysis must be downscaled accordingly, to recognize climatological features of the farmlands. Climate model simulations and impact studies significantly contribute to the future strategic planning in economic development and therefore impact analysis must be approached with high level of confidence. This paper includes research related to climate change and impacts in Serbia resulted from cooperative work of the modeling and user community. Dynamical downscaling of climate projections for the 21st century with multi-model approach and statistical bias correction are done in order to prepare model results for impact studies. Presented results are from simulations performed using regional EBU-POM model, which is forced with A1B and A2 SRES/IPCC (2007) with comparative analysis with other regional models and from the latest high resolution NMMB simulations forced with RCP8.5 IPCC scenario (2012). Application of bias correction of the model results is necessary when calculated indices are not linearly dependent on the model results and delta approach in presenting results with respect to present climate simulations is insufficient. This is most important during the summer over the north part of the country where model bias produce much higher temperatures and less precipitation, which is known as "summer drying problem" and is common in regional models' simulations over the Pannonian valley. Some of the results, which are already observed in present climate, like higher temperatures and disturbance in the precipitation pattern, lead to present and future advancement of the start of the vegetation period toward earlier dates, associated with an increased risk of the late spring frost, extended vegetation period, disturbed preparation for the rest period, increased duration and frequency of the draught periods, etc

  15. Global topics and novel approaches in the study of air pollution, climate change and forest ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sicard, Pierre; Augustaitis, Algirdas; Belyazid, Salim; Calfapietra, Carlo; de Marco, Alessandra; Fenn, Mark; Bytnerowicz, Andrzej; Grulke, Nancy; He, Shang; Matyssek, Rainer; Serengil, Yusuf; Wieser, Gerhard; Paoletti, Elena

    2016-06-01

    Research directions from the 27th conference for Specialists in Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystems (2015) reflect knowledge advancements about (i) Mechanistic bases of tree responses to multiple climate and pollution stressors, in particular the interaction of ozone (O3) with nitrogen (N) deposition and drought; (ii) Linking genetic control with physiological whole-tree activity; (iii) Epigenetic responses to climate change and air pollution; (iv) Embedding individual tree performance into the multi-factorial stand-level interaction network; (v) Interactions of biogenic and anthropogenic volatile compounds (molecular, functional and ecological bases); (vi) Estimating the potential for carbon/pollution mitigation and cost effectiveness of urban and peri-urban forests; (vii) Selection of trees adapted to the urban environment; (viii) Trophic, competitive and host/parasite relationships under changing pollution and climate; (ix) Atmosphere-biosphere-pedosphere interactions as affected by anthropospheric changes; (x) Statistical analyses for epidemiological investigations; (xi) Use of monitoring for the validation of models; (xii) Holistic view for linking the climate, carbon, N and O3 modelling; (xiii) Inclusion of multiple environmental stresses (biotic and abiotic) in critical load determinations; (xiv) Ecological impacts of N deposition in the under-investigated areas; (xv) Empirical models for mechanistic effects at the local scale; (xvi) Broad-scale N and sulphur deposition input and their effects on forest ecosystem services; (xvii) Measurements of dry deposition of N; (xviii) Assessment of evapotranspiration; (xix) Remote sensing assessment of hydrological parameters; and (xx) Forest management for maximizing water provision and overall forest ecosystem services. Ground-level O3 is still the phytotoxic air pollutant of major concern to forest health. Specific issues about O3 are: (xxi) Developing dose-response relationships and

  16. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  17. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip;

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  18. Species Favourability Shift in Europe due to Climate Change: A Case Study for Fagus sylvatica L. and Picea abies (L. Karst. Based on an Ensemble of Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolfgang Falk

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate is the main environmental driver determining the spatial distribution of most tree species at the continental scale. We investigated the distribution change of European beech and Norway spruce due to climate change. We applied a species distribution model (SDM, driven by an ensemble of 21 regional climate models in order to study the shift of the favourability distribution of these species. SDMs were parameterized for 1971–2000, as well as 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 using the SRES scenario A1B and three physiological meaningful climate variables. Growing degree sum and precipitation sum were calculated for the growing season on a basis of daily data. Results show a general north-eastern and altitudinal shift in climatological favourability for both species, although the shift is more marked for spruce. The gain of new favourable sites in the north or in the Alps is stronger for beech compared to spruce. Uncertainty is expressed as the variance of the averaged maps and with a density function. Uncertainty in species distribution increases over time. This study demonstrates the importance of data ensembles and shows how to deal with different outcomes in order to improve impact studies by showing uncertainty of the resulting maps.

  19. Climate change and species interactions: ways forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angert, Amy L; LaDeau, Shannon L; Ostfeld, Richard S

    2013-09-01

    With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide.

  20. Evaluating farmers’ adaptation strategies to climate change: A case study of Kaou local government area, Tahoua State, Niger Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Moussa Tabbo

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The study discusses local farmers’ strategies of coping with and building resilience against the negative impact of climate change. Information for the discussion was from data collected using a set of structured questionnaires from interviews scheduled with 128 farmers. The questionnaire was based on previous literature and direct reconnaissance interview with farmers, which culminated in 13 strategies used for the study being reported. For each question, respondents were asked to choose their best and worst strategies. Thus, the difference between the best and worst strategies consistent with random utility theory has been used for the modelling. Results show that semi-transhumance, various handicrafts making, rural migration, small-scale vegetable production and small-scale river exploitation were the most important strategies identified, whilst water transport and vending, shifting cultivation, gypsum mining, gathering and trading of wild fruits and edible plants as well as cattle and sheep fattening were the least appreciated strategies identified amongst the farmers facing climate change. These findings are therefore imperative for planning farmers’ capacity-building and resilience against climate change projects to ensure sustainability in the study area.Keywords: Farmers’ adaptation strategies; Climate change resilience; Kaou

  1. Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Basics Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions Climate Change Facts: Answers to Common Questions This page ... All Responses Is there a scientific consensus on climate change? The major scientific agencies of the United ...

  2. Europeans' attitudes towards climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report presents the results of a survey on Europeans' attitudes towards climate change which was carried out in January and February 2009. The survey focuses on: Citizens' perceptions of climate change in relation to other world problems; Citizens' perceptions of the seriousness of climate change; The extent to which citizens feel informed about climate change - its causes, consequences and ways of fighting it; Citizens' attitudes towards alternative fuels and CO2 emissions; Whether citizens feel that climate change is stoppable or has been exaggerated, and what impact it has on the European economy; Whether citizens have taken personal action to fight climate change. This Eurobarometer survey was carried out by TNS Opinion and Social network between 16 January and 22 February 2009. The interviews were conducted among 26,718 citizens in the 27 Member States of the European Union, the three candidate countries for accession to the European Union (Croatia, Turkey and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) and in the Turkish Cypriot Community.

  3. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology : Development of a Methodology through a Case Study in the Andes of Peru

    OpenAIRE

    Vergara, Walter; Deeb, Alejandro; Leino, Irene; Kitoh, Akio; Escobar, Marisa

    2011-01-01

    The objective of study of the impacts of climate change on mountain hydrology is to develop a methodology to assess the net impacts of climate change on the hydrological response in mountainous regions. This is done through a case study in the Peruvian Andes. There are few examples of predictions of the impact of climate change on resource availability and even fewer examples of the applic...

  4. Climate Change and Nuclear Power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is one of a series of recent agreements through which countries around the world are banding together to meet the challenge of altering the global climate. In 1997, in respond to the growing public pressure and questions on climate change governments adopted the Kyoto Protocol. The 5th Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP5 UNFCCC) was a rather technical and complex conference which focused in particular on the development of a detailed framework for the application of ''flexible mechanisms'' as laid down in the Kyoto Protocol. Young Generation Network as a part of the International Nuclear Forum at COP5 took part in the debate saying that nuclear is the part of the solution. (author)

  5. Climate change and preventive medicine

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faergeman, Ole

    2007-01-01

    disease do not result from climate change, but they do share causes with climate change. Burning fossil fuels, for example, is the major source of greenhouse gases, but it also makes pervasive physical inactivity possible. Similarly, modern agriculture's enormous production of livestock contributes...... substantially to greenhouse gas emissions, and it is the source of many of our most energy-rich foods. Physicians and societies of medical professionals have a particular responsibility, therefore, to contribute to the public discourse about climate change and what to do about it. Udgivelsesdato: 2007-Dec......Thermal stress, food poisoning, infectious diseases, malnutrition, psychiatric illness as well as injury and death from floods, storms and fire are all likely to become more common as the earth warms and the climate becomes more variable. In contrast, obesity, type II diabetes and coronary artery...

  6. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  7. Problems, Prescriptions and Potential in Actionable Climate Change Science - A Case Study from California Coastal Marsh Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacDonald, G. M.; Ambrose, R. F.; Thorne, K.; Takekawa, J.; Brown, L. N.; Fejtek, S.; Gold, M.; Rosencranz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Frustrations regarding the provision of actionable science extend to both producers and consumers. Scientists decry the lack of application of their research in shaping policy and practices while decision makers bemoan the lack of applicability of scientific research to the specific problems at hand or its narrow focus relative to the plethora of engineering, economic and social considerations that they must also consider. Incorporating climate change adds additional complexity due to uncertainties in estimating many facets of future climate, the inherent variability of climate and the decadal scales over which significant changes will develop. Recently a set of guidelines for successful science-policy interaction was derived from the analysis of transboundary water management. These are; 1 recognizing that science is a crucial but bounded input into the decision-making processes, 2 early establishment of conditions for collaboration and shared commitment among participants, 3 understanding that science-policy interactions are enhanced through greater collaboration and social or group-learning processes, 4 accepting that the collaborative production of knowledge is essential to build legitimate decision-making processes, and 5 engaging boundary organizations and informal networks as well as formal stakeholders. Here we present as a case study research on California coastal marshes, climate change and sea-level that is being conducted by university and USGS scientists under the auspices of the Southwest Climate Science Center. We also present research needs identified by a seperate analysis of best practices for coastal marsh restoration in the face of climate change that was conducted in extensive consultation with planners and managers. The initial communication, scientific research and outreach-dissemination of the marsh scientfic study are outlined and compared to best practices needs identified by planners and the science-policy guidelines outlined above

  8. Bangladesh : Climate Change and Sustainable Development

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank

    2000-01-01

    The study examines Bangladesh's extreme vulnerability to climate change, whose low-lying topography, and funnel-shaped coast, further exposes the land to cyclones, and tidal surges, resulting in seasonal floods. These factors, and the large population base, widespread poverty, aggravated by the lack of strong institutional development, makes the country particularly vulnerable to climate v...

  9. Responsible investors acting on climate change. Investors acting on climate change. Climate: Investors take action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Some investors are willing to lower the carbon emission financed by their investment, recognizing that climate change has financial impacts. At first they measure the carbon footprint of their portfolio, than initiate shareholder engagement actions at oil and gas companies, publish list of exclusion composed of the most carbon-intensive companies and ask for ex fossil fuels indices. In June 2015, Novethic launches the first actualisation of its study released on February 2015 on the mobilisation of investors on climate change over the whole 2015 year. The trend is gaining momentum since more than 200 additional investors publicly disclosed commitments to integrate climate risk into their investment and management practices. In September 2015, for its second update of the report on how investors are taking action on climate change, more than 800 entities were screened. As a key result, investor's actions gain momentum: approaches are growing in number and becoming more expert, divestments are widespread in Europe, and green investments promises are more ambitious. The last edition of November 2015 highlights and scans an exclusive panel of 960 investors worth Euro 30 trillion of assets who have made steps forward to tackle climate change. During the last 8 months, their number has almost increased twofold. This document brings together the first edition of Novethic's study and its three updates

  10. Climaite - a three factor climate change ecosystem manipulation study: set up and approaches for data analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    N. Mikkelsen, Teis; Beier, Claus; Schmidt, Inger Kappel;

    In a new Danish climate change related field scale experiment, CLIMAITE, we are investigating the impacts of individual and multiple simultaneous global changes on ecosystem processes and functioning in a Danish semi natural grassland vegetation dominated by Deschampsia flexuosa and Calluna...... vulgaris. The Climaite experiment involves three global change factors: elevated CO2 (510 ppm), elevated temperature (+ 1-2 C) and altered precipitation (1-1.5 months extended drought in May-July) all compared to ambient conditions in a complete factorial design. The experiment includes six replicates......, the physiological status of plants, soil water chemistry and emission of green house gasses. The CO2 is enhanced all year around during daylight hours in 6 plots by the use of a FACE system (F. Miglietta design). Temperature elevation is achieved by night time warming where IR reflective curtains automatically...

  11. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  12. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  13. Water storage under changing climates: A case study of small farm dams in New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, J.; Preston, N.; Jackson, B. M.

    2009-12-01

    In many regions of the world, climate change scenarios predict a trend towards drier conditions. In agricultural areas, less rainfall during planting and growing periods will exacerbate existing water supply issues, with communities striving to find alternative water storage options. In New Zealand, both government and agricultural interest groups are promoting the construction of storage ponds (both small-scale ponds for farm use and larger reservoirs for community use) to tackle this issue. This paper investigates the use of small farm dams as a means of providing secure water storage while also considering downstream environmental impacts. New Zealand has thousands of small stock water and irrigation dams that interrupt streamflow, primarily located on first-order streams. With climate change scenarios predicting a 3-4% decrease in annual precipitation in some regions, it is expected that dam numbers will increase in the future. However, little is known about the impact of these dams on the downstream environment in terms of water quantity, quality, sediment transfer, and stream morphology at either the local or regional scale. A combination of field-based methods and modelling is used to quantify the overall impact of farm dams on the downstream system in an agricultural catchment in the Hawke’s Bay region of New Zealand. Results show that farm dams reduce overall discharge and flood peaks, but sustain winter flows for a longer duration between rainfall events. The dams also create a lowering of water quality and a decrease in the transfer of sediment, with aggradation occurring in downstream channel reaches. Implications at the wider catchment scale are discussed, along with improved management practices which could allow for both water security and the protection of the environment. Results have implications for regions of the world which face drier conditions under changing climate regimes and need environmentally and socio-economically sustainable water

  14. Confronting climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially from energy production and use, and their impact on global climate emerged as a major national issue in the United States during the 1980s. As a result, Congress directed the US Department of Energy (DOE) to ask the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering to assess the current state of research and development (R ampersand D) in the United States in alternative energy sources, and to suggest energy R ampersand D strategies involving roles for both the public and private sectors, should the government want to give priority to stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of GHGs. The findings and recommendations of the Committee on Alternative Energy Research and Development Strategies, appointed by the National Research Council in response to Congress's directive, are provided in this report and summarized in this chapter. The energy R ampersand D strategies and actions recommended by the committee are structured to facilitate prudent and decisive responses by the United States, despite uncertainties regarding the effects of GHGs on global climate. 96 refs., 4 figs., 17 tabs

  15. Accounting for global-mean warming and scaling uncertainties in climate change impact studies: application to a regulated lake system

    OpenAIRE

    B. Hingray; Mouhous, N.; Mezghani, A.; Bogner, K.; Schaefli, B.; Musy, A.

    2007-01-01

    International audience A probabilistic assessment of climate change and related impacts should consider a large range of potential future climate scenarios. State-of-the-art climate models, especially coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) cannot, however, be used to simulate such a large number of scenarios. This paper presents a methodology for obtaining future climate scenarios through a simple scaling methodology. The projections of sever...

  16. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  17. EARLY DETECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE AN ISRAELI CASE STUDY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    N. Kliot [Department of Geography and Environment Studies University of Haifa, Haifa (Israel)

    2008-09-30

    According to moderate I.P.C.C. scenarios, within the coming 100 years the temperature in the Eastern Mediterranean is expected to rise by an average of 3.3 C in the summer and 2.8 C in the winter. It is expected that heat waves will increase in intensity and frequency. It is also expected that the annual rainfall will be reduced, there will be fewer rainy days and rise in the frequency of extreme rainfall event. Also, frequency of extreme whether events is expected to rise. The difficulties which face Israeli farming which is technologically a very advanced one, are: first, water stress - shortage in water resources and deterioration in their quality; second, impacts on crops and various livestock and poultry branches. Generally, agricultural long term planning will have to plan for replacing many fruit trees which need cool winter (apples, pears, peaches, cherries - for example) by crops which will be better adapted to heat and dry weather. It is expected that the higher temperatures will sustain more diseases of plants, crops and orchards. Field crops which depend on winter precipitation will be particularly effected by climatic changes. Some, such cotton will require supplemental irrigation. All field crops will be subjected to increased soil erosion. Studies which were conducted in Israel estimated that the future damages to agriculture as a result of water shortages as ranging between $101-$208 million. The income of farmers may drop by 20%. One of the coping methods is a system of insurance in most of the agricultural branches and a special fund to compensate wheat farmers for frequent droughts. The various difficulties and adaptation mechanisms (such as smart agriculture, or complete green house farming systems) will be presented.

  18. Assessment of coastal vulnerability to climate change hazards at the regional scale: the case study of the North Adriatic Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Torresan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Sea level rise, changes in storms and wave climate as a consequence of global climate change are expected to increase the size and magnitude of flooded and eroding coastal areas, thus having profound impacts on coastal communities and ecosystems. River deltas, beaches, estuaries and lagoons are considered particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, which should be studied at the regional/local scale. This paper presents a regional vulnerability assessment (RVA methodology developed to analyse site-specific spatial information on coastal vulnerability to the envisaged effects of global climate change, and assist coastal communities in operational coastal management and conservation. The main aim of the RVA is to identify key vulnerable receptors (i.e. natural and human ecosystems in the considered region and localize vulnerable hot spot areas, which could be considered as homogeneous geographic sites for the definition of adaptation strategies. The application of the RVA methodology is based on a heterogeneous subset of bio-geophysical and socio-economic vulnerability indicators (e.g. coastal topography, geomorphology, presence and distribution of vegetation cover, location of artificial protection, which are a measure of the potential harm from a range of climate-related impacts (e.g. sea level rise inundation, storm surge flooding, coastal erosion. Based on a system of numerical weights and scores, the RVA provides relative vulnerability maps that allow to prioritize more vulnerable areas and targets of different climate-related impacts in the examined region and to support the identification of suitable areas for human settlements, infrastructures and economic activities, providing a basis for coastal zoning and land use planning. The implementation, performance and results of the methodology for the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy are fully described in the paper.

  19. A Study on the Management of Micropollutants in Water System Considering Climate Change and other Potential Effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In this study, the management polices of micropollutants (MPs) were reviewed and the future management strategy was discussed considering climate change and etc. In Korea, the investigation of drinking water has been actively carried out for the priority contaminants as well as MPs. Recently river and lake waters have been also examined for MPs. However, the coverage and depth of the investigation is limited. Moreover, climate change is likely to increase air, water temperature and it will affect the hydrological cycle. Such changes may increase the residual concentrations of MPs in water system. As water reuse increases, the residual MPs of the recycled water may create public concerns. Thus, in a viewpoint of the precautionary principle, more stringent management of MPs is recommended for the drinking water and the body-contact water use. For the surface water, more studies are necessary to understand the ecological risk by MPs

  20. A Study on the Management of Micropollutants in Water System Considering Climate Change and other Potential Effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Hojeong; Ahn, Jong Ho [Korea Environment Institute (KEI), Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Hong, Yongsuk [Korea University, Sejong (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-12-15

    In this study, the management polices of micropollutants (MPs) were reviewed and the future management strategy was discussed considering climate change and etc. In Korea, the investigation of drinking water has been actively carried out for the priority contaminants as well as MPs. Recently river and lake waters have been also examined for MPs. However, the coverage and depth of the investigation is limited. Moreover, climate change is likely to increase air, water temperature and it will affect the hydrological cycle. Such changes may increase the residual concentrations of MPs in water system. As water reuse increases, the residual MPs of the recycled water may create public concerns. Thus, in a viewpoint of the precautionary principle, more stringent management of MPs is recommended for the drinking water and the body-contact water use. For the surface water, more studies are necessary to understand the ecological risk by MPs.

  1. Prediction of climate change impacts on agricultural watersheds and the performance of winter cover crops: Case study of the upper region of the Choptank River Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elevated CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation intensity driven by climate change are expected to cause significant environmental changes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). Although the potential effects of climate change are widely reported, few studies have been conducted to unders...

  2. Millennial changes of the Baltic Sea salinity. Studies of the sensitivity of the salinity to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An important question for safety assessments of nuclear waste repositories is the salinity of the Baltic Sea under different conditions. The salinity affects the potential recipient ecosystems, the water turnover along the coast and the hydrology as well as the groundwater chemistry. In this report a model that enables computation of the Baltic Sea salinity for different sea level positions and freshwater supplies is presented. The model is used to compute the salinities in Baltic proper, Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay for all combinations of global sea level changes from -10 m to 10 m and freshwater supplies from 0 to 60,000 m3/s. The results are presented in a series of graphs that enables the reader to make an assessment of the impact of a given climatic change. The model is also used to compute the decrease of the salinity in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay during the next few millennia due to the postglacial uplift. The results show that modest changes in global sea level, say ±1 m, give a salinity change of the order of 1 psu in southern Baltic proper. Changing the freshwater supply with about 2,000 m3/s (approximately 10%) gives a similar salinity change. Further, a sea level drop of about 5 m or an increase of the freshwater supply by a factor of 3 is needed to reduce the salinity in southern Baltic proper below 1 psu. In this limit large parts of the Baltic would be limnic. A 50% decrease of the freshwater supply increase the salinity in the southern Baltic proper by a factor of 2 to some 15 psu, but the effect is even more drastic in Bothnian Sea and Bothnian Bay where the salinity increase to 13 and 10 psu, respectively. A less windy climate might have a significant effect in lowering the Baltic salinity due to a combined effect of lowered mixing in Kattegat and lowered exchange between Kattegat and the Baltic. A windier climate will not have such strong effect since increased mixing does not affect the Baltic as much. Most probably the shoreline

  3. Collared Pikas as a Model Species for Studying the Biological Impacts of Climate Change in Alpine Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donovan, K. S.; Hik, D.

    2007-12-01

    Climate models suggest that global temperatures could rise between 1.4° C and 5.8° C over the next 100 years, and that these effects will be most extreme in northern mountain regions. Pikas (Ochotona, Lagomorpha) are widespread small mammals in the alpine environments of Asia and North America. They are cold adapted and consequently sensitive to warming global temperatures. Considerable research has shown a poleward migration of many species as a result of rising temperatures, but high alpine dwelling species, like the pika, may already be trapped at the top of mountains. Little is known about the threshold values of environmental conditions under which pikas either persist or disappear. Collared pikas (Ochotona collaris) inhabit alpine meadows in the Kluane region of the southwest Yukon. Sites located along an environmental gradient from nunataks in the St Elias Icefields to the Ruby Range Mountains have experienced different climatic and glacial histories. Using baseline data from the long-term study in the Ruby Ranges, we report on differences in the ecological and climatic conditions of sites along this gradient and how this translates into differences in the behavioural and population ecology of the pikas living there. By looking at these differences we can infer the potential impacts of a warming climate, and the subsequent ecological changes on collared pika populations in order to clarify the causes of local extinction and allow us to develop models for predicting ecological responses as conditions change under future climate regimes.

  4. Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sloth Madsen, M; Fox Maule, C; MacKellar, N;

    2012-01-01

    Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study...

  5. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  6. El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. van Oldenborgh

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available In many parts of the world, climate projections for the next century depend on potential changes in the properties of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO. The current staus of these projections is assessed by examining a large set of climate model experiments prepared for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Firstly, the patterns and time series of present-day ENSO-like model variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with that observed. Next, the strength of the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedback loops responsible for generating the ENSO cycle in the models are evaluated. Finally, we consider the projections of the models with, what we consider to be, the most realistic ENSO variability. Two of the models considered do not have interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Three models show a very regular ENSO cycle due to a strong local wind feedback in the central Pacific and weak sea surface temperature (SST damping. Six other models have a higher frequency ENSO cycle than observed due to a weak east Pacific upwelling feedback loop. One model has much stronger upwelling feedback than observed, and another one cannot be described simply by the analysis technique. The remaining six models have a reasonable balance of feedback mechanisms and in four of these the interannual mode also resembles the observed ENSO both spatially and temporally. Over the period 2051-2100 (under various scenarios the most realistic six models show either no change in the mean state or a slight shift towards El Niño-like conditions with an amplitude at most a quarter of the present day interannual standard deviation. We see no statistically significant changes in amplitude of ENSO variability in the future, with changes in the standard deviation of a Southern Oscillation Index that are no larger than observed decadal variations. Uncertainties in the skewness of the variability are too large to make

  7. El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. J. van Oldenborgh

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In many parts of the world, climate projections for the next century depend on potential changes in the properties of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO. The current staus of these projections is assessed by examining a large set of climate model experiments prepared for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Firstly, the patterns and time series of present-day ENSO-like model variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with that observed. Next, the strength of the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedback loops responsible for generating the ENSO cycle in the models are evaluated. Finally, we consider the projections of the models with, what we consider to be, the most realistic ENSO variability. Two of the models considered do not have interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Three models show a very regular ENSO cycle due to a strong local wind feedback in the central Pacific and weak sea surface temperature (SST damping. Six other models have a higher frequency ENSO cycle than observed due to a weak east Pacific upwelling feedback loop. One model has much stronger upwelling feedback than observed, and another one cannot be described simply by the analysis technique. The remaining six models have a reasonable balance of feedback mechanisms and in four of these the interannual mode also resembles the observed ENSO both spatially and temporally. Over the period 2051-2100 (under various scenarios the most realistic six models show either no change in the mean state or a slight shift towards El Niño-like conditions with an amplitude at most a quarter of the present day interannual standard deviation. We see no statistically significant changes in amplitude of ENSO variability in the future, with changes in the standard deviation of a Southern Oscillation Index that are no larger than observed decadal variations. Uncertainties in the skewness of the variability are too large to make

  8. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

    2016-01-01

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers.

  9. Projections of Water Stress Based on an Ensemble of Socioeconomic Growth and Climate Change Scenarios: A Case Study in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fant, Charles; Schlosser, C Adam; Gao, Xiang; Strzepek, Kenneth; Reilly, John

    2016-01-01

    The sustainability of future water resources is of paramount importance and is affected by many factors, including population, wealth and climate. Inherent in current methods to estimate these factors in the future is the uncertainty of their prediction. In this study, we integrate a large ensemble of scenarios--internally consistent across economics, emissions, climate, and population--to develop a risk portfolio of water stress over a large portion of Asia that includes China, India, and Mainland Southeast Asia in a future with unconstrained emissions. We isolate the effects of socioeconomic growth from the effects of climate change in order to identify the primary drivers of stress on water resources. We find that water needs related to socioeconomic changes, which are currently small, are likely to increase considerably in the future, often overshadowing the effect of climate change on levels of water stress. As a result, there is a high risk of severe water stress in densely populated watersheds by 2050, compared to recent history. There is strong evidence to suggest that, in the absence of autonomous adaptation or societal response, a much larger portion of the region's population will live in water-stressed regions in the near future. Tools and studies such as these can effectively investigate large-scale system sensitivities and can be useful in engaging and informing decision makers. PMID:27028871

  10. Climate change and fuel poverty

    OpenAIRE

    Simon Dresner; Paul Ekins

    2005-01-01

    The research examined the possible effects of rapid climate change on fuel poverty (needing to spend more than 10% of income to maintain a satisfactory level of warmth and other energy services in the home). One particular concern was the prospect that there might be a shutting off of the Gulf Stream, which warms Britain and the rest of north-western Europe. Computer simulations of the climate indicate that shutting down the Gulf Stream would cool England by about 3°C. Climate is not the only...

  11. Reporting the climate change crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Anabela

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most serious threats that humankind will have to deal with in the coming decades. There is every indication that it will engender a significant upheaval in the climate patterns of the world regions, with corresponding impacts on agriculture, ecosystems and human health. This main entail unpredictable weather events, like storms and tornados, while posing significant risks for human security, destruction of housing and economic structures, and floodi...

  12. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  13. Lessons from the construction of a climate change adaptation plan: A Broads wetland case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, R Kerry; Palmieri, Maria Giovanna; Luisetti, Tiziana

    2016-10-01

    The dynamic nature of environmental change in coastal areas means that a flexible "learning by doing" management strategy has a number of advantages. This article lays out the principles of such a strategy and then assesses an actual planning and management process focused on climate change consequences for the Broads wetland on the East coast of England. The management strategy focused on the concept of ecosystem services (stocks and flows) provided by the coastal wetland and the threats and opportunities posed to the area by sea level rise and other climate change impacts. The analysis explores the process by which an adaptive management plan has been formulated and coproduced by a combination of centralized (vertical) and stakeholder social network (horizontal) arrangements. The process values where feasible the ecosystem services under threat and prioritizes response actions. Coastal management needs a careful balance between strategic requirements imposed at a national scale and local schemes that affect regional and/or local communities and social networks. These networks aided by electronic media have allowed groups to engage more rapidly and effectively with policy proposals. However, successful deliberation is conditioned by a range of context specific factors, including the type of social networks present and their relative competitive and/or complementary characteristics. The history of consultation and dialogue between official agencies and stakeholders also plays a part in contemporary deliberation processes and the success of their outcomes. Among the issues highlighted are the multiple dimensions of nature's value; the difficulty of quantifying some ecosystem service changes, especially for cultural services; and the problem of "stakeholder fatigue" complicating engagement arrangements. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:719-725. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:26946335

  14. Climate change and shareholder value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    During 2005, the Carbon Trust worked with Cairneagle Associates to develop a methodology for analysing shareholder value at risk from climate change. The model developed offers a robust, replicable, top-down approach to analysing such value at risk. In addition to a company's own energy linked ('direct' and electricity linked 'indirect') carbon emissions, it looks further along the value chain and considers broader potential risk. In calculating the financial impact, the analysis quantifies the potential impact on profits, using the shape of the business in 2004, but applying a potential 2013 emissions regulatory regime. 2013 was chosen as the first year after the end of the 2008-2012 Kyoto compliance period (which also equates to Phase Two in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme). A major uncertainty is to what extent countries not currently regulated by the Kyoto Protocol (particularly the USA, India and China) will be brought into committed emission reduction targets from 2013. 2013 therefore represents the earliest year under this uncertain, but likely tougher, regulatory regime. However, although this report focuses on 2013, it needs to be recognised that, for many sectors, financial impacts will be seen significantly before this time. Ten 'case study companies' have been studied, from a range of sectors. In some cases, the 'case study company' analysed is strictly linked to a single company within that sector. In others, just a single corporate division has been reviewed, and in others yet again, characteristics from several companies have been combined to produce a more representative example. In order to enable analysis on a strictly like-for-like basis, the research has been based entirely upon public sources of information. This analysis illustrates what a determined shareholder (or other onlooker) could derive about value at risk from climate change, based upon what companies disclose today. A summary of the analysis for each sector case study is given, with

  15. Invasive species and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middleton, Beth A.

    2006-01-01

    Invasive species challenge managers in their work of conserving and managing natural areas and are one of the most serious problems these managers face. Because invasive species are likely to spread in response to changes in climate, managers may need to change their approaches to invasive species management accordingly.

  16. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  17. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change. PMID:18759775

  18. Three eras of climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huq, Saleemul; Toulmin, Camilla

    2006-10-15

    Climate change as a global challenge has evolved through a series of stages in the last few decades. We are now on the brink of a new era which will see the terms of the debate shift once again. The different eras are characterised by the scientific evidence, public perceptions, responses and engagement of different groups to address the problem. In the first era, from the late 1980s to 2000, climate change was seen as an “environmental” problem to do with prevention of future impacts on the planet's climate systems over the next fifty to hundred years, through reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases, known as “mitigation”. The second era can be said to have started around the turn of the millennium, with the recognition that there will be some unavoidable impacts from climate change in the near term (over the next decade or two). These impacts must be coped with through “adaptation”, as well as mitigation, to prevent much more severe and possibly catastrophic impacts in the longer term. It has become clear that many of the impacts of climate change in the near term are likely to fall on the poorest countries and communities. The third era, which we are just about to enter, will see the issue change from tackling an environmental or development problem to a question of “global justice”. It will engage with a much wider array of citizens from around the world than previous eras.

  19. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  20. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  1. Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

    2014-01-01

    , precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies......Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now....... Congruent results of meta-analyses based on warming experiments, however, do not reflect a better general understanding of temperature effects, because the potential effects of more complex changes in temperature, including extreme events, are not yet covered well. Heat, frost, seasonality, and spatial...

  2. Climate change mitigation and electrification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An increasing number of mitigation scenarios with deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions have focused on expanded use of demand-side electric technologies, including battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and heat pumps. Here we review such “electricity scenarios” to explore commonalities and differences. Newer scenarios are produced by various interests, ranging from environmental organizations to industry to an international organization, and represent a variety of carbon-free power generation technologies on the supply side. The reviewed studies reveal that the electrification rate, defined here as the ratio of electricity to final energy demand, rises in baseline scenarios, and that its increase is accelerated under climate policy. The prospect of electrification differs from sector to sector, and is the most robust for the buildings sector. The degree of transport electrification differs among studies because of different treatment and assumptions about technology. Industry does not show an appreciable change in the electrification rate. Relative to a baseline scenario, an increase in the electrification rate often implies an increase in electricity demand but does not guarantee it. - Highlights: ► Until recently few mitigation scenarios paid attention to electrification. ► Recent scenarios show an increasing focus on demand-side electric technologies. ► They are represented by various interests. ► Level of electrification increases with stringency of climate policy. ► Prospect of electrification differs across sectors.

  3. A Model for Pre-Service Teachers' Climate Change Awareness and Willingness to Act for Pro-Climate Change Friendly Behavior: Adaptation of Awareness to Climate Change Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal, Burçkin; Alper, Umut; Özdem-Yilmaz, Yasemin; Öztürk, Nilay; Sönmez, Duygu

    2015-01-01

    Public awareness of the negative effects of climate change is vital since it leads to collective action for prevention and adaptation. However, investigations on to what extent people are aware of the climate change issue are rare in the literature. The present study reported the adaptation process of awareness to climate change questionnaire into…

  4. Philosophy of climate science part II: modelling climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the second of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this second part about modelling climate change, the topics of climate modelling, confirmation of climate models, the limits of climate projections, uncertainty and finally model ensembles will be discussed.

  5. FLOOD RISK FACTORS IN SUBURBAN AREA IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION POLICIES – CASE STUDY OF WROCLAW, POLAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szymon Szewrański

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The uncontrolled sprawl of urban development exerts environmental impact in rural areas. The aim of this study is to identify areas vulnerable to climate change in the context of implementation of policies adapting to climate change at the local level. Such areas can be defined as those where the negative implication of flesh flood overlapping with soil sealing is observed. The study areas composed of municipalities which are influenced by the urban sprawl process of the city of Wroclaw, Poland. The analyses were performed using publicly available spatial data from aerial orthophotomaps from 2004–2012, the satellite images; archival and current land use maps. The database CORINE 1990, 2000, 2006; Urban Atlas and geodatabase of the European Environment Agency were also of an important usage for this study.

  6. Incidence of Vector-borne Disease and Climate Change: A Study in Semi-arid Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blakey, T.; Bounoua, L.

    2012-12-01

    Leishmaniases are among the most important emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases, second only to malaria in terms of the number of affected people. Leishmaniases are endemic in 88 countries worldwide and threaten about 350 million people (WHO, 2007). Since the first reported case of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) in Saida, Algeria in 1991, 1,275 cases have been recorded (Makhlouf & Houti, 2010) with the vast majority of study-area cases (99%) reported between the years of 2000 and 2009. An investigation of potential climatic indicators for the apparent shift in disease prevalence was conducted by comparing anomalies in the climate data specific to the local pathogen cycle. It was determined that long term climate trends have resulted in conditions that promote the prevalence of ZCL. Increased precipitation have resulted in greater vegetation and promoted host and vector population growth through a trophic cascade. Increased minimum temperatures have lengthened the annual duration of sandfly activity. Short term variations in maximum temperatures, however show a correlation with disease suppression in the subsequent years. These findings indicate a potential to forecast the risk of ZCL infection through models of the trophic cascade and sandfly population growth.

  7. Scenario Analysis on Climate Change Impacts of Urban Land Expansion under Different Urbanization Patterns: A Case Study of Wuhan Metropolitan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinli Ke

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban land expansion plays an important role in climate change. It is significant to select a reasonable urban expansion pattern to mitigate the impact of urban land expansion on the regional climate in the rapid urbanization process. In this paper, taking Wuhan metropolitan as the case study area, and three urbanization patterns scenarios are designed to simulate spatial patterns of urban land expansion in the future using the Partitioned and Asynchronous Cellular Automata Model. Then, simulation results of land use are adjusted and inputted into WRF (Weather Research and Forecast model to simulate regional climate change. The results show that: (1 warming effect is strongest under centralized urbanization while it is on the opposite under decentralized scenario; (2 the warming effect is stronger and wider in centralized urbanization scenario than in decentralized urbanization scenario; (3 the impact trends of urban land use expansion on precipitation are basically the same under different scenarios; (4 and spatial distribution of rainfall was more concentrated under centralized urbanization scenario, and there is a rainfall center of wider scope, greater intensity. Accordingly, it can be concluded that decentralized urbanization is a reasonable urbanization pattern to mitigate climate change in rapid urbanization period.

  8. Climate change and hazardscape of Sri Lanka

    OpenAIRE

    Akiko Yamane

    2009-01-01

    In recent years ‘vulnerability assessment’ has gained a prominent position in the international climate-change policy arena. There are many social-scientific studies that examine various methods and approaches involved in assessing vulnerability. Rather than making another addition to this literature I examine how climate-change policies have been translated in Sri Lanka in order to identify vulnerable places and social groups by combining actor-network theory and the concept of ‘hazardscape’...

  9. Global food security under climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Schmidhuber, J.; Tubiello, F.N.

    2007-01-01

    This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed s...

  10. The Joint Front Range Climate Change Vulnerability Study: Closing the Gap between Science and Water Management Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaatz, L.; Yates, D.; Woodbury, M.

    2008-12-01

    There is increasing concern among metropolitan water providers in Colorado's Front Range about the possible impacts of global and regional climate changes on their future water supply. This is of particular worry given that recent studies indicate global warming may lead to unprecedented drought conditions in the Southwest U.S. (IPCC 2007). The City of Aurora, City of Boulder, Colorado Springs Utilities, Denver Water, City of Ft. Collins, and Northern Colorado Water Conservancy District, along with additional water agencies including the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the Water Research Foundation (formerly AwwaRF), and the NOAA-CIRES Western Water Assessment, have come together to participate in a study intended to provide the education, tools, and methodology necessary to examine possible effects of climate change on several common watersheds. The central objective of this project is to assess possible changes in the timing and volume of hydrologic runoff from selected climate change scenarios centered about the years 2040 and 2070. Two hydrologic models will be calibrated and implemented in the study for this purpose. The future temperature and precipitation scenarios used to generate corresponding future streamflow are based on regionally downscaled temperature and precipitation projections. The projected streamflow obtained by running varied sequences of temperature and precipitation through the hydrologic models, will be compared to historic streamflow to estimate the sensitivity of water supplies to climate change. This regional unified approach is intended to help Colorado water providers communicate with their customers and the media cohesively, by working with the same historic and projected hydrometeorological data, historic natural streamflow, and methodology. Lessons learned from this collaborative approach can be used to encourage and establish other regional efforts throughout the country. Furthermore, this study will set the stage for future

  11. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  12. Market Strategies for Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolk, A.; Pinkse, J. [Business School, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2004-06-01

    The issue of climate change has attracted increasing business attention in the past decade. Whereas companies initially aimed primarily at influencing the policy debate, corporate strategies increasingly include economic responses. Existing classifications for climate change strategies however still reflect the political, non-market components. Using empirical information from the largest multinational companies worldwide, this article examines current market responses, focusing on the drivers (threats and opportunities) and the actions being taken by companies to address climate change. It also develops a typology of climate strategies that addresses the market dimensions, covering both the aim (strategic intent) and the degree of cooperation (form of organisation). The aim turns out to be either innovation or compensation, while the organisational arrangements to reach this objective can be oriented at the company level (internal), at companies' own supply chain (vertical) or at cooperation with other companies (competitors or companies in other sectors - horizontal). The typology can assist managers in deciding about the strategic option(s) they want to choose regarding climate change, also based on the insights offered by the paper about the current state of activities of other companies worldwide.

  13. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  14. Modeling direct and indirect climate change impacts on ecological networks : a case study on breeding habitat of Dutch meadow birds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Dijk, Jerry; Van Der Vliet, Roland E.; De Jong, Harm; Zeylmans Van Emmichoven, Maarten J.; Van Hardeveld, Henk A.; Dekker, Stefan C.; Wassen, Martin J.

    2015-01-01

    Context: Climate change can directly affect habitats within ecological networks, but may also have indirect effects on network quality by inducing land use change. The relative impact of indirect effects of climate change on the quality of ecological networks currently remains largely unknown. Objec

  15. Is There a Temperate Bias in Our Understanding of How Climate Change Will Alter Plant-Herbivore Interactions? A Meta-analysis of Experimental Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundim, Fabiane M; Bruna, Emilio M

    2016-09-01

    Climate change can drive major shifts in community composition and interactions between resident species. However, the magnitude of these changes depends on the type of interactions and the biome in which they take place. We review the existing conceptual framework for how climate change will influence tropical plant-herbivore interactions and formalize a similar framework for the temperate zone. We then conduct the first biome-specific tests of how plant-herbivore interactions change in response to climate-driven changes in temperature, precipitation, ambient CO2, and ozone. We used quantitative meta-analysis to compare predicted and observed changes in experimental studies. Empirical studies were heavily biased toward temperate systems, so testing predicted changes in tropical plant-herbivore interactions was virtually impossible. Furthermore, most studies investigated the effects of CO2 with limited plant and herbivore species. Irrespective of location, most studies manipulated only one climate change factor despite the fact that different factors can act in synergy to alter responses of plants and herbivores. Finally, studies of belowground plant-herbivore interactions were also rare; those conducted suggest that climate change could have major effects on belowground subsystems. Our results suggest that there is a disconnection between the growing literature proposing how climate change will influence plant-herbivore interactions and the studies testing these predictions. General conclusions will also be hampered without better integration of above- and belowground systems, assessing the effects of multiple climate change factors simultaneously, and using greater diversity of species in experiments.

  16. Is There a Temperate Bias in Our Understanding of How Climate Change Will Alter Plant-Herbivore Interactions? A Meta-analysis of Experimental Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mundim, Fabiane M; Bruna, Emilio M

    2016-09-01

    Climate change can drive major shifts in community composition and interactions between resident species. However, the magnitude of these changes depends on the type of interactions and the biome in which they take place. We review the existing conceptual framework for how climate change will influence tropical plant-herbivore interactions and formalize a similar framework for the temperate zone. We then conduct the first biome-specific tests of how plant-herbivore interactions change in response to climate-driven changes in temperature, precipitation, ambient CO2, and ozone. We used quantitative meta-analysis to compare predicted and observed changes in experimental studies. Empirical studies were heavily biased toward temperate systems, so testing predicted changes in tropical plant-herbivore interactions was virtually impossible. Furthermore, most studies investigated the effects of CO2 with limited plant and herbivore species. Irrespective of location, most studies manipulated only one climate change factor despite the fact that different factors can act in synergy to alter responses of plants and herbivores. Finally, studies of belowground plant-herbivore interactions were also rare; those conducted suggest that climate change could have major effects on belowground subsystems. Our results suggest that there is a disconnection between the growing literature proposing how climate change will influence plant-herbivore interactions and the studies testing these predictions. General conclusions will also be hampered without better integration of above- and belowground systems, assessing the effects of multiple climate change factors simultaneously, and using greater diversity of species in experiments. PMID:27513912

  17. Potential future fisheries yields in shelf waters: a model study of the effects of climate change and ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Leeuwen, S. M.; Le Quesne, W. F.; Parker, E. R.

    2016-01-01

    We applied a coupled marine water column model to three sites in the North Sea. The three sites represent different hydrodynamic regimes and are thus representative of a wider area. The model consists of a hydro-biogeochemical model (GOTM-ERSEM-BFM) coupled one way upwards to a size-structured model representing pelagic predators and detritivores (Blanchard et al., 2009). Thus, bottom-up pressures like changing abiotic environment (climate change, chemical cycling) will have an impact on fish biomass across the size spectrum. Here, we studied three different impacts of future conditions on fish yield: climatic impacts (medium emission scenario), abiotic ocean acidification impacts (reduced pelagic nitrification), and biotic ocean acidification impacts (reduced detritivore growth rate). The three impacts were studied separately and combined, and results showed that sites within different hydrodynamic regimes can respond very differently. The seasonally stratified site showed an increase in fish yields (occurring in winter and spring), with acidification effects of the same order of magnitude as climatic effects. The permanently mixed site also showed an increase in fish yield (increase in summer, decrease in winter), due to climatic effects moderated by acidification impacts. The third site, which is characterised by large inter-annual variability in thermal stratification duration, showed a decline in fish yields (occurring in winter) due to decline in the benthic system which forms an important carbon pathway at this site. All sites displayed a shift towards a more pelagic-oriented system.

  18. General Chemistry Students' Understanding of Climate Change and the Chemistry Related to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versprille, Ashley N.; Towns, Marcy H.

    2015-01-01

    While much is known about secondary students' perspectives of climate change, rather less is known about undergraduate students' perspectives. The purpose of this study is to investigate general chemistry students' understanding of the chemistry underlying climate change. Findings that emerged from the analysis of the 24 interviews indicate that…

  19. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    such as deltas, estuaries and wetlands, where many large cities and industrial areas are located. Integrated risk assessment tools for considering the effects of climate change and related uncertainties. Presents latest insights on coastal engineering defenses. Provides integrated guidelines for setting up......Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  20. Migration from atolls as climate change adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas Ladegaard Kümmel; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2014-01-01

    Adaptive strategies are important for reducing the vulnerability of atoll communities to climate change and sea level rise in both the short and long term. This paper seeks to contribute to the emerging discourse on migration as a form of adaptation to climate change based on empirical studies...... in the two atoll communities, Reef Islands and Ontong Java, which are located in the periphery of Solomon Islands. The paper will outline current migration patterns in the two island groups and discuss how some of this migration may contribute to adaptation to climate change and other stresses. It shows...... in adaptation to climate change in exposed atoll communities, addressing some of the barriers to migration seems logical. This may be done by efforts to stimulate migrant income opportunities, by improving migrant living conditions and by improving the transport services to the islands....

  1. Japan's Ambivalent Diplomacy on Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Japan often pictures itself as an environmental leader. While many examples of Japan's actions against climate change are in line with global climate change norms, others can be in opposition to them. This study, based on first hand interviews with Japanese policy makers and actors from the private and civil society sector, gives an informed perspective on the process through which Japan came to integrate and implement, at the domestic level, the international objective of climate change prevention, pointing out the discrepancies, tensions or synergies that emerged. As the current governance on climate change, and particularly after the Copenhagen conference, tends to reassert the importance of the national level against the global one, the Japanese case can serve as an example of tools and strategies that fully integrate the domestic level

  2. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.

  3. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people. PMID:26920851

  4. Climate change impact on the river runoff: regional study for the Central Asian Region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The water resources of the Aral Sea Basin are jointly used by the Central Asian states. The river flow is concentrated in the two largest transboundary rivers: the Amudarya and Syrdarya Rivers, which run down from the mountains to the plains, cross the deserts and flow into the Aral Sea. Uzbekistan is the major water consumer in the Aral Sea Basin. In accordance with interstate agreements, on average 43-52 km2 of water per year as allotted for use by Uzbekistan from the boundary rivers. About 90% of river flow is formed beyond Uzbekistan boundaries. Under current conditions, water resource shortages in Uzbekistan, even a small but stable reduction of these resources presents a drastic problem. The degree of impact of possible climate changes on the regime of mountain rivers of the Central Asia can be evaluated by sufficiently reliable mathematical models of the runoff formation in mountains. The basic mathematical model describes a complete cycle of the runoff formation, reflecting the main factors and processes: precipitation, dynamics of a snow cover, evaporation, contribution of melting and rain water to the catchment, glacial runoff, runoff transformation and losses in basin. The model complex consists of the model Of snow cover formation in the mountains basin, model of glacial runoff and model of snow melt and rainfall water inflow transformation in runoff. Model calculations of snow reserves in the mountains under different climatic scenarios have demonstrated their gradual decrease due to growing aridity of the climate. Contribution of the snow is expected to decrease by 15-30%1 especially for rivers, which are snow-fed. At present, the annual glacial runoff of the rivers of the Syrdarya River basin amounts to 8-15%. Under different prognoses,,, increase in this flow of up to 20% is expected. Contribution of glacial runoff to the rivers of the Amudarya River basin might grow 32-39% under the most 'severe' climatic scenarios. During the cropping season, an

  5. Baseline studies for monitoring global climatic change in the Arctic environment; A remote sensing-spatial data base approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The US Geological Survey's National Mapping Division has initiated research to establish a long-term monitoring program based on remotely sensed and other digital spatial earth science data bases. Six to eight specific eco-physiographic provinces in Alaska will be identified and studied in support of global climate change research in Arctic regions. A study site in the Colville River delta region has been selected for developing a demonstration/pilot data base, which will serve as a conceptual model for the other eco-physiographic regions yet to be identified. Regional data sets assembled to date include a complete Alaskan coastline digitized from 1:250,000 scale USGS map sheets, a state-wide mosaic of digital elevation model data at 0.5-km resolution, and a digitized version of the physiographic divisions of Alaska. The monitoring program focuses on the compilation and integration of digital spatial data bases for scientific investigations of earth system processes. Research elements associated with the climate change study include the spatial integration of widely varying sources of earth science data and multi-platform, multi-temporal sources of remotely sensed data. Selection of the monitoring sites follow criteria established by the international Geosphere-Biosphere Program and will occur through a series of interagency workshops. The integrated digital spatial data bases for the defined monitoring sites will provide a working tool for researchers to examine global climate change over the past 20 years, as well as provide a basis for future comparative studies

  6. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  7. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs

  8. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing?:A Case Study of Suzhou, China

    OpenAIRE

    Miaomiao Liu; Yining Huang; Rosemary Hiscock; Qin Li; Jun Bi; Kinney, Patrick L.; Clive E. Sabel

    2016-01-01

    As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn’t been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether...

  9. Sustain : the climate change challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This special report on climate change and greenhouse gas emissions focused on widely held current opinions which indicate that average global surface temperatures are increasing. The potential consequences of climate change can include rising sea levels, drought storms, disease, and mass migration of people. While the global climate change theory is widely accepted, the report warns that there are still many uncertainties about how climate change occurs and what processes can offset human-caused emissions. Canada produces about 2 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon dioxide comprises 80 per cent of Canada's total emissions. It is well known that Canadians place a heavy demand on energy to heat and light their homes because of the northern climate, and on transportation fuels to move people, goods and services across vast distances. With the Kyoto Protocol of December 1997, developed countries agreed to legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions of at least five per cent by 2008 to 2012. Canada agreed to a six per cent reduction below 1990 levels by 2010. Although Canada signed the Kyoto Protocol, it does not intend to ratify it until an implementation strategy has been developed with broad support. The goal is to develop a strategy by 1999. The oil and gas industry has in general improved its efficiency and reduced emissions on a per unit of production basis by installing new equipment and new operating practices that reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, and improve energy efficiency. The industry is conscious of its responsibility, and while not fully in agreement with the environmental doomsayers, it is prepared to take proactive actions now, albeit on a voluntary basis. What the industry wants is a balance between environmental and economic responsibility. Emissions trading' and 'joint implementation' are seen as two important tools to tackle climate change on a global basis. 4 figs

  10. Potential for Climate Change Mitigation in Degraded Forests: A Study from La Primavera, México

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arturo Balderas Torres

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Forests contribute to climate change mitigation by removing atmospheric carbon dioxide and storing it in biomass and other carbon pools. Additionally, since appropriate forest management can reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, it is important to estimate the magnitude of these services to include them into climate policy. We used a forest inventory stratified by canopy cover in the oak-pine forest of La Primavera Biosphere Reserve in México (30,500 ha, to assess the potential provision of forest carbon services. Inventory results were used in combination with a Landsat image to estimate carbon stocks in arboreal biomass. Potential carbon removals were calculated from published allometric equations and models estimating tree growth rates, for enhancements in forested areas and for reforestation/afforestation. Carbon stocks estimated in arboreal biomass at the time of the inventory were 4.16 MtCO2eq (3.42–4.89. The potential for further carbon sequestration and enhancement could take the level of stocks up to 9.77 MtCO2eq (7.66–11.89, 95% confidence interval; previous fires have degraded carbon stocks below their natural potential. The results present a gradient of carbon stocks for different degradation levels and are consistent with national and international estimates and previous local research. The baseline for the estimation of reduced emissions is critical for assessing the overall contribution of forests to mitigate climate change. The local baseline of emissions might be around 1% according to historical data; however, when enhancements and reduced emissions are valuated together, a baseline of 3.7% is required to prevent the creation of perverse incentives favouring previously degraded areas; considering these figures for reduced emissions, the yearly carbon services provided by La Primavera, including enhancements, sequestration and reduced emissions, could be between 169.4 ktCO2eq/year (134.8–204.5 and

  11. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  12. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  13. Mirador - Climate Variability and Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Earth Science data access made simple. NASA's role in climate variability study is centered around providing the global scale observational data sets on oceans and...

  14. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-08-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  15. Climatic servitude: climate change, business and politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book is together a contemporary history book and a global dossier about a topic of prime importance in our civilization. It treats of the history of science, of ideas and events put in the modern civilization context, of science situation and scientific controversies, of the media aspects, of carbon economy and its related business, of Al Gore's and Maurice Strong's biographies, and finally, it makes a critical geopolitical analysis and makes proposals for a renovated ecology. In the conclusion, the author shows how climate change has become the hobbyhorse of a new thinking trend, namely the New World Order, aiming at conducting people to the acceptance of constraining policies encompassing the energy security of nations, new taxes, a worldwide economic disruption, the limitation of the World's population, and a World governance supported by the United Nations and not constrained by classical democratic rules. (J.S.)

  16. Carbon cycle feedbacks and future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-11-13

    Climate and carbon cycle are tightly coupled on many timescales, from interannual to multi-millennial timescales. Observations always evidence a positive feedback, warming leading to release of carbon to the atmosphere; however, the processes at play differ depending on the timescales. State-of-the-art Earth System Models now represent these climate-carbon cycle feedbacks, always simulating a positive feedback over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, although with substantial uncertainty. Recent studies now help to reduce this uncertainty. First, on short timescales, El Niño years record larger than average atmospheric CO2 growth rate, with tropical land ecosystems being the main drivers. These climate-carbon cycle anomalies can be used as emerging constraint on the tropical land carbon response to future climate change. Second, centennial variability found in last millennium records can be used to constrain the overall global carbon cycle response to climatic excursions. These independent methods point to climate-carbon cycle feedback at the low-end of the Earth System Models range, indicating that these models overestimate the carbon cycle sensitivity to climate change. These new findings also help to attribute the historical land and ocean carbon sinks to increase in atmospheric CO2 and climate change. PMID:26438284

  17. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration(NOAA) Arctic Climate Change Studies: A Contribution to IPY

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calder, J.; Overland, J.; Uttal, T.; Richter-Menge, J.; Rigor, I.; Crane, K.

    2004-12-01

    NOAA has initiated four activities that respond to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment(ACIA) recommendations and represent contributions toward the IPY: 1) Arctic cloud, radiation and aerosol observatories, 2) documentation and attribution of changes in sea-ice thickness through direct measurement and modeling, 3) deriving added value from existing multivariate and historical data, and 4) following physical and biological changes in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas. Northeast Canada, the central Arctic coast of Russia and the continuing site at Barrow have been chosen as desirable radiation/cloud locations as they exhibit different responses to Arctic Oscillation variability. NOAA is closely collaborating with Canadian groups to establish an observatory at Eureka. NOAA has begun deployment of a network of ice-tethered ice mass balance buoys complemented by several ice profiling sonars. In combination with other sea ice investigators, the Arctic buoy program, and satellites, changes can be monitored more effectively in sea ice throughout the Arctic. Retrospective data analyses includes analysis of Arctic clouds and radiation from surface and satellite measurements, correction of systematic errors in TOVS radiance data sets for the Arctic which began in 1979, addressing the feasibility of an Arctic System Reanalysis, and an Arctic Change Detection project that incorporates historical and recent physical and biological observations and news items at a website, www.arctic.noaa.gov. NOAA has begun a long-term effort to detect change in ecosystem indicators in the northern Bering and Chukchi Seas that could provide a model for other northern marine ecosystems. The first efforts were undertaken in summer 2004 during a joint Russian-US cruise that mapped the regions physical, chemical and biological parameters to set the stage for future operations over the longer term. A line of biophysical moorings provide detection of the expected warming of this area. A

  18. 75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-23

    ... that are leaders in climate adaptation to understand and respond to climate risk. The public comment... this notice to the external peer-review panel prior to the meeting for their consideration. When... understand and respond to climate risk. The approaches taken by the different utilities to assess...

  19. WOOD ANATOMICAL STUDY AMONG THREE ECOTYPES OF Pinus merkusii IN SUMATRA AND THE POTENTIAL AS CLIMATE CHANGE INDICATOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia Sandri

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Recently, climate change is the one of most important environmental issue. Climate variability can be recorded by tree growing through the growth ring. Growth ring formed by cambial activity were examined in wood anatomy. In Sumatra, there are three ecotypes Pinus merkusii, namely ecotypes Kerinci, Tapanuli, and Aceh which can be distinguished morphologically. This study aims to knowing the wood anatomical characteristics of the three ecotypes and determine the potential as climate indicator. This study was conducted in October 2014 until June 2015. Sample of Kerinci ecotype was collected in Kerinci Seblat National Park, Tapanuli ecotype in Dolok Sibualbuali Natural Reserve and Aceh ecotype in Gunung Leuser National Park on a height of 130 cm using increment borer and cut on the main stem 5×5 cm for anatomical sample. Results from this study indicate that ecotype Kerinci and Tapanuli showed earlywood and latewood boundary exposing the clear growth ring, whereas in Aceh ecotype unclear. Tapanuli ecotype have the thickest tracheid diameter than ecotype Kerinci and Aceh. Ecotypes of Kerinci, Tapanuli, and Aceh has homoceluler and uniseriate ray where Aceh ecotype have the longest ray. Furthermore, Kerinci and Tapanuli ecotype have potential as climate indicator eventhough showed negative correlation, that Tapanuli ecotype show the best result and recommended in dendrochronology study.

  20. Climate Change May Mean More Smoggy Days to Come

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: https://medlineplus.gov/news/fullstory_158438.html Climate Change May Mean More Smoggy Days to Come: Study ... 21, 2016 THURSDAY, April 21, 2016 (HealthDay News) -- Climate change could cause many major American cities to experience ...

  1. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  2. Integrated assessment of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Many researchers are working on all the separate parts of the climate problem. The objective of integrated assessment is to put the results from this work together in order to look carefully at the big picture so as to: (1) keep a proper sense of perspective about the problem, since climate change will occur in the presence of many other natural and human changes; (2) develop the understanding necessary to support informed decision making by many different key public and private actors around the world; and (3) assure that the type and mix of climate-related research that is undertaken will be as useful as possible to decisions makers in both the near and long term. This paper outlines a set of design guidelines for formulating integrated assessment programs and projects and then outlines some of the current problems and opportunities. Selected points are illustrated by drawing on results from the integrated assessment research now in progress at Carnegie Mellon University

  3. Progress in studies of the climate of humid period and the impacts of changing precession in early-mid Holocene

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jianbin Huang; Shaowu Wang; Xinyu Wen; Bao Yang

    2008-01-01

    Studies on the climate of humid period and the impacts of changing precession in the early-mid Holocene are reviewed in this paper.High-resolution proxy data indicated that the African Humid Period,strong summer monsoon from the Arabian Sea to South Asia,northward migration of ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone) over the northern South America,and the humid period of China appeared in 10.5-5.5 kaBP,10.0-6.0 kaBP,10.5-5.4 kaBP,and 11.0-8.0 kaBP,respectively.Modeling studies proved that summer inso-lation over the Northern Hemisphere increased following the changes of precession in the early Holocene,which increased the land-sea temperature contrasts,intensified the summer monsoon circulation in the Northern Hemisphere,and finally induced a humid climate over the area under the influence of summer monsoon.However,modeling results underestimated the increase of precipitation and the degree of northward extension of monsoon rain belt compared with palaeo-environmental data.These discrepancies between the modeling results and the palaeo-environmental data may be associated with the changes of North Atlantic circulation,sea ice and veg-etation covers.Moreover,climate of the humid period was not stable,in which several droughts were inlaid on centennial scale.In this review,perspectives for further studies of the climate change of the humid period in the early-mid Holocene are also proposed.

  4. Climate change and viticulture in Mediterranean climates: the complex response of socio-ecosystems. A comparative case study from France and Australia (1955-2040)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lereboullet, A.-L.; Beltrando, G.; Bardsley, D. K.

    2012-04-01

    The wine industry is very sensitive to extreme weather events, especially to temperatures above 35°C and drought. In a context of global climate change, Mediterranean climate regions are predicted to experience higher variability in rainfall and temperatures and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Some viticultural systems could be particularly at risk in those regions, considering their marginal position in the growth climatic range of Vitis vinifera, the long commercial lifespan of a vineyard, the high added-value of wine and the volatile nature of global markets. The wine industry, like other agricultural systems, is inserted in complex networks of climatic and non-climatic (other physical, economical, social and legislative) components, with constant feedbacks. We use a socio-ecosystem approach to analyse the adaptation of two Mediterranean viticultural systems to recent and future increase of extreme weather events. The present analysis focuses on two wine regions with a hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSb type in the Köppen classification): Côtes-du-Roussillon in southern France and McLaren Vale in southern Australia. Using climate data from two synoptic weather stations, Perpignan (France) and Adelaide (Australia), with time series running from 1955 to 2010, we highlight changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in the number of days with Tx >35°c since the last three decades in both regions. Climate models (DRIAS project data for France and CSIRO Mk3.5 for Australia) project similar trends in the future. To date, very few projects have focused on an international comparison of the adaptive capacity of viticultural systems to climate change with a holistic approach. Here, the analysis of climate data was complemented by twenty in-depth semi-structured interviews with key actors of the two regional wine industries, in order to analyse adaptation strategies put in place regarding recent climate evolution. This mixed-methods approach

  5. Understanding the school 'climate': secondary school children and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This interdisciplinary study analyzes the production, circulation and reception of messages on climate change in secondary schools in France. The objective is to understand how political and educational policy initiatives influence the ways in which schools contribute to creating youngsters' perceptions and opinions about climate change. In order to study the conditions of production and reception of information about climate change, a survey was conducted in four French secondary schools, in the 'Bas Rhin' and 'Nord' departments, and local political actors in each department were interviewed. The cross disciplinary analytical and methodological approach uses the tools of sociological inquiry, information science, and political science: questionnaires and interviews were conducted with members of the educational and governmental communities of each school and department, semiotic and discursive analyses of corpuses of documents were carried out, in order to characterize documents used by students and teachers at school or in more informal contexts; the nature and extent of the relations between the political contexts and school directives and programs were also discussed. This interdisciplinary approach, combining sociological, communicational, and political methods, was chosen in response to the hypothesis that three types of variables (social, communicational and political) contribute to the structuring and production of messages about climate change in schools. This report offers a contextualized overview of activities developed within the four secondary schools to help sensitize children to the risks associated with climate change. A study of the networks of individuals (teachers, staff, members of associations, etc.) created in and around the school environment is presented. The degree of involvement of these actors in climate change programs is analyzed, as it is related to their motives and objectives, to the school discipline taught, and to the position

  6. Mass balance gradients and climatic change

    OpenAIRE

    Oerlemans, J.; Hoogendoorn, N.C.

    1989-01-01

    It is generally assumed that the mass-balance gradient on glaciers is more or less conserved under climatic change. In studies of the dynamic response of glaciers to climatic change, one of the following assumptions is normally made: (i) the mass-balance perturbation is independent of altitude or (ii) the mass-balance profile does not change - it simply shifts up and down. Observational evidence for such an approach is not convincing; on some glaciers the inter-annual changes in mass balance ...

  7. Help the climate, change your diet: A cross-sectional study on how to involve consumers in a transition to a low-carbon society

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, de J.; Witt, de A.; Aiking, H.

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores how the transition to a low-carbon society to mitigate climate change can be better supported by a diet change. As climate mitigation is not the focal goal of consumers who are buying or consuming food, the study highlighted the role of motivational and cognitive background facto

  8. Nuclear energy and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy is one of the essential motives for social and economic development of the humanity. Nuclear energy is a feasible option to stand up to a larger demand of energy, and it is playing, and will continue playing in the future, a decisive role in the debate about climate change and sustainable development, and in the efforts to reduce the CO2 emissions. (Author)

  9. Climate Change and Respiratory Infections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirsaeidi, Mehdi; Motahari, Hooman; Taghizadeh Khamesi, Mojdeh; Sharifi, Arash; Campos, Michael; Schraufnagel, Dean E

    2016-08-01

    The rate of global warming has accelerated over the past 50 years. Increasing surface temperature is melting glaciers and raising the sea level. More flooding, droughts, hurricanes, and heat waves are being reported. Accelerated changes in climate are already affecting human health, in part by altering the epidemiology of climate-sensitive pathogens. In particular, climate change may alter the incidence and severity of respiratory infections by affecting vectors and host immune responses. Certain respiratory infections, such as avian influenza and coccidioidomycosis, are occurring in locations previously unaffected, apparently because of global warming. Young children and older adults appear to be particularly vulnerable to rapid fluctuations in ambient temperature. For example, an increase in the incidence in childhood pneumonia in Australia has been associated with sharp temperature drops from one day to the next. Extreme weather events, such as heat waves, floods, major storms, drought, and wildfires, are also believed to change the incidence of respiratory infections. An outbreak of aspergillosis among Japanese survivors of the 2011 tsunami is one such well-documented example. Changes in temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pollution influence viral activity and transmission. For example, in early 2000, an outbreak of Hantavirus respiratory disease was linked to a local increase in the rodent population, which in turn was attributed to a two- to threefold increase in rainfall before the outbreak. Climate-sensitive respiratory pathogens present challenges to respiratory health that may be far greater in the foreseeable future. PMID:27300144

  10. Kyoto protocol on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article reports a short overview of main points of Kyoto protocol to United Nations Framework Convention on climate Change and of some options still to be defined, evolutions of Italian emissions with respect to other European countries, check of decree by inter ministerial committee on economic planning on national plan to reduce emissions

  11. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... or insects can increase. Disease vectors such as mosquitoes, ticks, and flies may occur in greater numbers over longer periods during the year, and expand the locations in which they thrive. Climate change also affects air movement and quality by increasing ...

  12. Climate benefits of changing diet

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stehfest, E.; Bouwman, A.F.; Vuuren, van D.P.; Elzen, M.; Kabat, P.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change mitigation policies tend to focus on the energy sector, while the livestock sector receives surprisingly little attention, despite the fact that it accounts for 18% of the greenhouse gas emissions and for 80% of total anthropogenic land use. From a dietary perspective, new insights in

  13. Symposium on Global Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Schmalensee

    1993-01-01

    Global climate change, and policies to slow it or adapt to it, may be among the primary forces shaping the world's economy throughout the next century and beyond. Nonetheless, popular treatments of this issue commonly ignore economics. This introductory essay sketches some of the uncertainties and research questions.

  14. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  15. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  16. Emergency Managers Confront Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John R. Labadie

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Emergency managers will have to deal with the impending, uncertain, and possibly extreme effects of climate change. Yet, many emergency managers are not aware of the full range of possible effects, and they are unsure of their place in the effort to plan for, adapt to, and cope with those effects. This may partly reflect emergency mangers’ reluctance to get caught up in the rancorous—and politically-charged—debate about climate change, but it mostly is due to the worldview shared by most emergency managers. We focus on: extreme events; acute vs. chronic hazards (floods vs. droughts; a shorter event horizon (5 years vs. 75–100 years; and a shorter planning and operational cycle. This paper explores the important intersection of emergency management, environmental management, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It examines the different definitions of terms common to all three fields, the overlapping strategies used in all three fields, and the best means of collaboration and mutual re-enforcement among the three to confront and solve the many possible futures that we may face in the climate change world.

  17. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  18. Population, poverty, and climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Das Gupta, Monica

    2013-01-01

    The literature is reviewed on the relationships between population, poverty, and climate change. While developed countries are largely responsible for global warming, the brunt of the fallout will be borne by the developing world, in lower agricultural output, poorer health, and more frequent natural disasters. Carbon emissions in the developed world have leveled off, but are projected to ...

  19. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  20. Financing Sustainable Agriculture Under Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Ji-kun; WANG Yang-jie

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture is facing great challenge in meeting global food security and is expected to face even greater challenge under climate change. The overall goal of this paper is to examine how ifnance can be used to achieve the joint objectives of development, mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture in developing world based on literature review. The results show that agriculture is much under invested and foreign aid also has not increased appropriately to assist developing countries to maintain sustainable agriculture under climate change. There are a wide range of areas in mitigation of and adaptation to climate change that need substantial investment. Major areas and successful cases mitigation of and adaptation to climate change in agriculture that have worked in developing countries are examined. A list of areas that have worked, could work and be scaled up or transferred is identiifed and discussed. This study concludes that mainstreaming agricultural mitigation and adaptation into agricultural development programs, enhancing local capacity, and considering different stakeholders’ needs are major experiences for successfully ifnancing sustainable agriculture under climate change.