WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate change simulating

  1. Serious Simulation Role-Playing Games for Transformative Climate Change Education: "World Climate" and "Future Climate"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rooney-Varga, J. N.; Sterman, J.; Sawin, E.; Jones, A.; Merhi, H.; Hunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change, its mitigation, and adaption to its impacts are among the greatest challenges of our times. Despite the importance of societal decisions in determining climate change outcomes, flawed mental models about climate change remain widespread, are often deeply entrenched, and present significant barriers to understanding and decision-making around climate change. Here, we describe two simulation role-playing games that combine active, affective, and analytical learning to enable shifts of deeply held conceptions about climate change. The games, World Climate and Future Climate, use a state-of-the-art decision support simulation, C-ROADS (Climate Rapid Overview and Decision Support) to provide users with immediate feedback on the outcomes of their mitigation strategies at the national level, including global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and concentrations, mean temperature changes, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. C-ROADS outcomes are consistent with the atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMS), such as those used by the IPCC, but runs in less than one second on ordinary laptops, providing immediate feedback to participants on the consequences of their proposed policies. Both World Climate and Future Climate role-playing games provide immersive, situated learning experiences that motivate active engagement with climate science and policy. In World Climate, participants play the role of United Nations climate treaty negotiators. Participant emissions reductions proposals are continually assessed through interactive exploration of the best available science through C-ROADS. Future Climate focuses on time delays in the climate and energy systems. Participants play the roles of three generations: today's policymakers, today's youth, and 'just born.' The game unfolds in three rounds 25 simulated years apart. In the first round, only today's policymakers make decisions; In the next round, the young become the policymakers and inherit the

  2. Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J.W.; Hatfield, Jerry; Ruane, Alex; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, Peter; Rotter, R.P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P.K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, AJ; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, Robert; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L.A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Mueller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O' Leary, G.O.; Olesen, JE; Osborne, T.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M.A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stockle, Claudio O.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J.W.; Williams, J.R.; Wolf, J.

    2013-09-01

    Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments1,2. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change has been increasingly described in the literature3,4 while assessments of the uncertainty in crop responses to climate change are very rare. Systematic and objective comparisons across impact studies is difficult, and thus has not been fully realized5. Here we present the largest coordinated and standardized crop model intercomparison for climate change impacts on wheat production to date. We found that several individual crop models are able to reproduce measured grain yields under current diverse environments, particularly if sufficient details are provided to execute them. However, simulated climate change impacts can vary across models due to differences in model structures and algorithms. The crop-model component of uncertainty in climate change impact assessments was considerably larger than the climate-model component from Global Climate Models (GCMs). Model responses to high temperatures and temperature-by-CO2 interactions are identified as major sources of simulated impact uncertainties. Significant reductions in impact uncertainties through model improvements in these areas and improved quantification of uncertainty through multi-model ensembles are urgently needed for a more reliable translation of climate change scenarios into agricultural impacts in order to develop adaptation strategies and aid policymaking.

  3. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asseng, A; Ewert, F; Rosenzweig, C

    2013-01-01

    of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models...... than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi......Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic...

  4. Climate for Culture : assessing the impact of climate change on the future indoor climate in historic buildings using simulations

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    Background The present study reports results from the large-scale integrated EU project "Climate for Culture". The full name, or title, of the project is Climate for Culture: damage risk assessment, economic impact and mitigation strategies for sustainable preservation of cultural heritage in times of climate change. This paper focusses on implementing high resolution regional climate models together with new building simulation tools in order to predict future outdoor and indoor climate cond...

  5. The hydrological response of catchments to simulated changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viney, Neil R.; Sivapalan, Murugesu [Centre for Water Research, University of Western Australia, Nedlands, WA (Australia)

    1996-04-17

    The Large Scale Catchment Model has been developed to predict the responses in stream yield and salinity to changes in land use and climate in southwestern Western Australia. In this paper it is used to simulate, for one small forested catchment, the hydrological consequences that might be associated with a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. The simulations assume that the region will experience a decrease in the amount of winter rainfall (with an increase in rainfall intensity) and an increase in potential evaporation. The results suggest that the assumed change in climate has the potential to lead to a 45% decrease in stream runoff in this catchment. About two-thirds of this decrease is associated with the reduction in rainfall; the remainder being associated with the increased potential evaporation. Furthermore, stream salinity is predicted to increase by about 8%, mostly in response to the enhanced evaporation regime

  6. Atmospheric river landfall-latitude changes in future climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, Christine A.; Kiehl, Jeffrey T.

    2016-08-01

    The latitude of landfall for atmospheric rivers (ARs) is examined in the fully coupled half-degree version of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) for warm future climate simulations. Two regions are examined: U.S. West Coast/North Pacific ARs and United Kingdom/North Atlantic ARs. Changes in AR landfall-latitude reflect changes in the atmospheric steering flow. West Coast U.S. ARs are projected to push equatorward in response to the subtropical jet climate change. UK AR response is dominated by eddy-driven jets and is seasonally dependent. UK simulated AR response is modest in the winter with the largest relative changes occurring in the seasonal transition months. Precipitation associated with ARs is also projected to increase in intensity under global warming. CCSM4 projects a marked shift to higher rainfall rates for Southern California. Small to modest rainfall rates may increase for all UK latitudes, for the Pacific Northwest, and central and northern California.

  7. Interactive Simulator for Teaching of Climate Change Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Torres Valle

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The use of simulators is good practice for teaching or training in the operation of complex processes. This is the case of climate change, the one associated with multiple phenomena that cannot be played as isolated laboratory practices. The experts themselves of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC have suggested qualitative indicators tomeasure the components of this risk (hazard, vulnerability and exposure and still, its complexity is remarkable for the multi, inter and transdisciplinary knowledge necessary for evaluation. One of the most important challenges of teaching these topics is the multiplicity of combinations that can occur for a variety of inputs of tax risk factors in each area of the world studied. Therefore, the presentation of an interdependent matrix system that maps the global and regional variables concerning the risks of climate change and a recursive system for evaluation are the basis of the simulator proposed in this paper. The same has been tested with global and regional scenarios, which have been incorporated into computercode developed for the preparation of prewritten didactic exercises and a recommendation for the implementation of new case studies.

  8. Simulating adaptive wood harvest in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Nabel, Julia; Pongratz, Julia

    2016-04-01

    The world's forest experience substantial carbon exchange fluxes between land and atmosphere. Large carbon sinks occur in response to changes in environmental conditions (such as climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations), removing about one quarter of current anthropogenic CO2-emissions. Large sinks also occur due to regrowth of forest on areas of agricultural abandonment or forest management. Forest management, on the other hand, also leads to substantial amounts of carbon being eventually released to the atmosphere. Both sinks and sources attributable to forests are therefore dependent on the intensity of management. Forest management in turn depends on the availability of resources, which is influenced by environmental conditions and sustainability of management systems applied. Estimating future carbon fluxes therefore requires accounting for the interaction of environmental conditions, forest growth, and management. However, this interaction is not fully captured by current modeling approaches: Earth system models depict in detail interactions between climate, the carbon cycle, and vegetation growth, but use prescribed information on management. Resource needs and land management, however, are simulated by Integrated Assessment Models that typically only have coarse representations of the influence of environmental changes on vegetation growth and are typically based on the demand for wood driven by regional population growth and energy needs. Here we present a study that provides the link between environmental conditions, forest growth and management. We extend the land component JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model (MPI-ESM) to simulate potential wood harvest in response to altered growth conditions and thus as adaptive to changing climate and CO2 conditions. We apply the altered model to estimate potential wood harvest for future climates (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) for the management scenario of

  9. Regional-Scale Climate Change: Observations and Model Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bradley, Raymond S; Diaz, Henry F

    2010-12-14

    This collaborative proposal addressed key issues in understanding the Earth's climate system, as highlighted by the U.S. Climate Science Program. The research focused on documenting past climatic changes and on assessing future climatic changes based on suites of global and regional climate models. Geographically, our emphasis was on the mountainous regions of the world, with a particular focus on the Neotropics of Central America and the Hawaiian Islands. Mountain regions are zones where large variations in ecosystems occur due to the strong climate zonation forced by the topography. These areas are particularly susceptible to changes in critical ecological thresholds, and we conducted studies of changes in phonological indicators based on various climatic thresholds.

  10. 35 ka BP climate simulations in East Asia and probing the mechanisms of climate changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Ge; ZHENG Yiqun; KE Xiankun

    2005-01-01

    Paleoclimate modeling has become an important tool to detect the future climate of the global warming that is difficult to be validated. The paleoclimate modeling has to be evaluated by regionally geological data in order to determine if it is able to reproduce a reality of climate states. Geological evidence shows that there was a warm-wet interstadial at 35000±3000 a BP in China, which provides an important climate period to be historical analogue for the future climate changes induced by greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated geological records of later phase of the MSI3 from China also provide basements for evaluation of 35 ka BP climate modeling. This paper reports the paleoclimate experiments applied by various forces, and validates the outputs by geological data, consequently improving the boundary conditions in the experiments and making the paleoclimates more approach the reality. The simulations show an increased temperature in the mid-low latitudes and an extended rain-belt northwards in East Asia, while a decreased temperature in high latitudes and a strong exchange of the N-S atmospheric circulation. As there is only ca. 10-15 ka from 35 ka BP to the LGM (21 ka BP) during which climate rapidly changed from a warm-wet interstadial to a typical ice age, this simulation provides scientific basis to recognize the criteria of global warming and trends of natural climate development.

  11. Simulation of Effects of Land Use Change on Climate in China by a Regional Climate Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高学杰; 罗勇; 林万涛; 赵宗慈; FilippoGIORGI

    2003-01-01

    Climate effects of land use change in China as simulated by a regional climate model (RegCM2)are investigated. The model is nested in one-way mode within a global coupled atmosphere-ocean model(CSIRO R21L9 AOGCM). Two multi-year simulations, one with current land use and the other with potential vegetation cover, are conducted. Statistically significant changes of precipitation, surface air temperature, and daily maximum and daily minimum temperature are analyzed based on the difference between the two simulations. The simulated effects of land use change over China include a decrease of mean annual precipitation over Northwest China, a region with a prevalence of arid and semi-arid areas;an increase of mean annual surfaoe air temperature over some areas; and a decrease of temperature along coastal areas. Summer mean daily maximum temperature increases in many locations, while winter mean daily minimum temperature decreases in East China and increases in Northwest China. The upper soil moisture decreases significantly across China. The results indicate that the same land use change may cause different climate effects in different regions depending on the surrounding environment and climate characteristics.

  12. Arctic climate change in an ensemble of regional CORDEX simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torben Koenigk

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fifth phase Climate Model Intercomparison Project historical and scenario simulations from four global climate models (GCMs using the Representative Concentration Pathways greenhouse gas concentration trajectories RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are downscaled over the Arctic with the regional Rossby Centre Atmosphere model (RCA. The regional model simulations largely reflect the circulation bias patterns of the driving global models in the historical period, indicating the importance of lateral and lower boundary conditions. However, local differences occur as a reduced winter 2-m air temperature bias over the Arctic Ocean and increased cold biases over land areas in RCA. The projected changes are dominated by a strong warming in the Arctic, exceeding 15°K in autumn and winter over the Arctic Ocean in RCP8.5, strongly increased precipitation and reduced sea-level pressure. Near-surface temperature and precipitation are linearly related in the Arctic. The wintertime inversion strength is reduced, leading to a less stable stratification of the Arctic atmosphere. The diurnal temperature range is reduced in all seasons. The large-scale change patterns are dominated by the surface and lateral boundary conditions so future response is similar in RCA and the driving global models. However, the warming over the Arctic Ocean is smaller in RCA; the warming over land is larger in winter and spring but smaller in summer. The future response of winter cloud cover is opposite in RCA and the GCMs. Precipitation changes in RCA are much larger during summer than in the global models and more small-scale change patterns occur.

  13. Simulating Hydrologic Changes with Climate Change Scenarios in the Haihe River Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YUAN Fei; XIE Zheng-Hui; LIU Qian; XIA Jun

    2005-01-01

    Climate change scenarios, predicted using the regional climate modeling system of PRECIS (providing regional climates for impacts studies), were used to derive three-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-3L) land surface model for the simulation of hydrologic processes at a spatial resolution of 0.25°× 0.25° in the Haihe River Basin. Three climate scenaxios were considered in this study: recent climate (1961-1990), future climate A2 (1991-2100) and future climate B2 (1991-2100) with A2 and B2 being two storylines of future emissions developed with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report on emissions scenarios. Overall, under future climate scenarios A2 and B2, the Haihe River Basin would experience warmer climate with increased precipitation, evaporation and runoff production as compared with recent climate, but would be still likely prone to water shortages in the period of 2031-2070. In addition,under future climate A2 and B2, an increase in runoff during the wet season was noticed, indicating a future rise in the flood occurrence possibility in the Haihe River Basin.

  14. Methodological advances: using greenhouses to simulate climate change scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, F; Pascual, I; Sánchez-Díaz, M; Aguirreolea, J; Irigoyen, J J; Goicoechea, N; Antolín, M C; Oyarzun, M; Urdiain, A

    2014-09-01

    Human activities are increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and temperature. Related to this global warming, periods of low water availability are also expected to increase. Thus, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are three of the main factors related to climate change that potentially may influence crops and ecosystems. In this report, we describe the use of growth chamber - greenhouses (GCG) and temperature gradient greenhouses (TGG) to simulate climate change scenarios and to investigate possible plant responses. In the GCG, CO2 concentration, temperature and water availability are set to act simultaneously, enabling comparison of a current situation with a future one. Other characteristics of the GCG are a relative large space of work, fine control of the relative humidity, plant fertirrigation and the possibility of light supplementation, within the photosynthetic active radiation (PAR) region and/or with ultraviolet-B (UV-B) light. In the TGG, the three above-mentioned factors can act independently or in interaction, enabling more mechanistic studies aimed to elucidate the limiting factor(s) responsible for a given plant response. Examples of experiments, including some aimed to study photosynthetic acclimation, a phenomenon that leads to decreased photosynthetic capacity under long-term exposures to elevated CO2, using GCG and TGG are reported.

  15. Classroom Simulation of United Nations Conference on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, D. W.

    2009-12-01

    Global climate change is widely recognized as the most important environmental problem today that requires complex, global solutions with international cooperation. Teaching the science of climate change is relatively simple compared to the challenges of determining solutions to this problem. It is important for students to learn that solutions do exist and that international negotiations are underway to achieve reductions. What are the (policy) solutions to this vexing problem, which countries should take responsibility, and specifically how can this be done? In the final week of an advanced undergraduate environmental science class: Global Environmental Change, students engage in a week-long classroom simulation of the annual United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties (UNFCCC/COP). Small groups of students represent one nation that has a particular, and important, interest in the negotiations. Each group researches the positions their country has with respect to the negotiations, determines their possible allies, and who might have interests that are in conflict with their country. While NGOs such as environmental organizations and industry groups are not formally represented, I include some of these groups since they are influential and provide interesting insight into different interests. For simplicity, about 8-10 nations and NGOs are included. In preparation for the conference, students produce a background paper and draft resolution. At the end of the conference, they refine these documents to produce an updated position paper and resolution on how to mitigate global warming. Students are asked to focus on: 1. How much to change global greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade and over the next century; 2. How much of these emission reductions their country should be responsible for; 3. How will their country meet these goals? They must focus on whether and how to implement two mechanisms: a) Clean Development

  16. Climate and change: simulating flooding impacts on urban transport network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Dawson, Richard

    2015-04-01

    National-scale climate projections indicate that in the future there will be hotter and drier summers, warmer and wetter winters, together with rising sea levels. The frequency of extreme weather events is expected to increase, causing severe damage to the built environment and disruption of infrastructures (Dawson, 2007), whilst population growth and changed demographics are placing new demands on urban infrastructure. It is therefore essential to ensure infrastructure networks are robust to these changes. This research addresses these challenges by focussing on the development of probabilistic tools for managing risk by modelling urban transport networks within the context of extreme weather events. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of extreme weather events on urban environment, in particular infrastructure networks, through a combination of climate simulations and spatial representations. By overlaying spatial data on hazard thresholds from a flood model and a flood safety function, mitigated by potential adaptation strategies, different levels of disruption to commuting journeys on road networks are evaluated. The method follows the Catastrophe Modelling approach and it consists of a spatial model, combining deterministic loss models and probabilistic risk assessment techniques. It can be applied to present conditions as well as future uncertain scenarios, allowing the examination of the impacts alongside socio-economic and climate changes. The hazard is determined by simulating free surface water flooding, with the software CityCAT (Glenis et al., 2013). The outputs are overlapped to the spatial locations of a simple network model in GIS, which uses journey-to-work (JTW) observations, supplemented with speed and capacity information. To calculate the disruptive effect of flooding on transport networks, a function relating water depth to safe driving car speed has been developed by combining data from experimental reports (Morris et

  17. Losing the Lake: Simulations to Promote Gains in Student Knowledge and Interest about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nussbaum, E. Michael; Owens, Marissa C.; Sinatra, Gale M.; Rehmat, Abeera P.; Cordova, Jacqueline R.; Ahmad, Sajjad; Harris, Fred C., Jr.; Dascalu, Sergiu M.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change literacy plays a key role in promoting sound political decisions and promoting sustainable consumption patterns. Based on evidence suggesting that student understanding and interest in climate change is best accomplished through studying local effects, we developed a simulation/game exploring the impact of climate change on the…

  18. Uncertainties in the regional climate models simulations of South-Asian summer monsoon and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syed, F. S.; Iqbal, Waheed; Syed, Ahsan Ali Bukhari; Rasul, G.

    2014-04-01

    The uncertainties in the regional climate models (RCMs) are evaluated by analyzing the driving global data of ERA40 reanalysis and ECHAM5 general circulation models, and the downscaled data of two RCMs (RegCM4 and PRECIS) over South-Asia for the present day simulation (1971-2000) of South-Asian summer monsoon. The differences between the observational datasets over South-Asia are also analyzed. The spatial and the quantitative analysis over the selected climatic regions of South-Asia for the mean climate and the inter-annual variability of temperature, precipitation and circulation show that the RCMs have systematic biases which are independent from different driving datasets and seems to come from the physics parameterization of the RCMs. The spatial gradients and topographically-induced structure of climate are generally captured and simulated values are within a few degrees of the observed values. The biases in the RCMs are not consistent with the biases in the driving fields and the models show similar spatial patterns after downscaling different global datasets. The annual cycle of temperature and rainfall is well simulated by the RCMs, however the RCMs are not able to capture the inter-annual variability. ECHAM5 is also downscaled for the future (2071-2100) climate under A1B emission scenario. The climate change signal is consistent between ECHAM5 and RCMs. There is warming over all the regions of South-Asia associated with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and the increase in summer mean surface air temperature by the end of the century ranges from 2.5 to 5 °C, with maximum warming over north western parts of the domain and 30 % increase in rainfall over north eastern India, Bangladesh and Myanmar.

  19. Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations over the Contiguous United States Including Potential Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Changhai; Rasmussen, Roy; Ikeda, Kyoko; Barlage, Michael; Chen, Fei; Clark, Martyn; Dai, Aiguo; Dudhia, Jimy; Gochis, David; Gutmann, Ethan; Li, Yanping; Newman, Andrew; Thompson, Gregory

    2016-04-01

    The WRF model with a domain size of 1360x1016x51 points, using a 4 km spacing to encompass most of North America, is employed to investigate the water cycle and climate change impacts over the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Four suites of numerical experiments are being conducted, consisting of a 13-year retrospective simulation forced with ERA-I reanalysis, a 13-year climate sensitivity or Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) simulation, and two 10-year CMIP5-based historical/future period simulations based on a revised bias-correction method. The major objectives are: 1) to evaluate high-resolution WRF's capability to capture orographic precipitation and snow mass balance over the western CONUS and convective precipitation over the eastern CONUS; 2) to assess future changes of seasonal snowfall and snowpack and associated hydrological cycles along with their regional variability across the different mountain barriers and elevation dependency, in response to the CMIP5 projected 2071-2100 climate warming; 3) to examine the precipitation changes under the projected global warming, with an emphasis on precipitation extremes and the warm-season precipitation corridor in association with MCS tracks in the central US; and 4) to provide a valuable community dataset for regional climate change and impact studies. Preliminary analysis of the retrospective simulation shows both seasonal/sub-seasonal precipitation and temperature are well reproduced, with precipitation bias being within 10% of the observations and temperature bias being below 1 degree C in most seasons and locations. The observed annual cycle of snow water equivalent (SWE), such as peak time and disappearance time, is also realistically replicated, even though the peak value is somewhat underestimated. The PGW simulation shows a large cold-season warming in northeast US and eastern Canada, possibly associated with snow albedo feedback, and a strong summer warming in north central US in association with

  20. The VEMAP integrated dataset for simulation of ecological responses to global change: Current climate and climate change scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kittel, T.G.F. [NCAR/UCAR, Boulder, CO (United States)]|[Colorado State Univ., Ft. Collins, CO (United States)

    1995-06-01

    The Vegetation/Ecosystem Modeling and Analysis Project (VEMAP) dataset consists of inputs for biogeochemical and biogeographical models, including current climate, climate scenarios, soils, and vegetation for the conterminous United States on a 0.5 deg lat./lon. grid. The set has daily and monthly representations of climate. Monthly temperature (T) and precipitation (PPT) were derived from station records or statistically-generated from nearby stations. These values were interpolated to the grid accounting for orographic effects in an effort to make the grid-scale climate representative of actual bioclimates within grid cells; this was crucial because ecosystem responses are nonlinearly related to climate. Daily T and PPT were stochastically simulated with WGEN, and daily solar radiation and humidity empirically estimated with CLIMSIM. Equilibrium climate change scenarios were selected to capture a range of potential change from GCM experiments. Transient scenario rates of change were based on atmosphere-ocean GCM results. Mean climate, equilibrium scenarios, vegetation, and soil data are available on CD-ROM.

  1. Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecophysiological models of crop growth have seen wide use in IPCC and related assessments. However, the diversity of modeling approaches constrains cross-study syntheses and increases potential for bias. We reviewed 139 peer-reviewed papers dealing with climate change and agriculture, considering si...

  2. Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate Change as Revealed by Relationships between Simulated Crop Yield and Climate Change Indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, A. W.; Absar, S. M.; Nair, S.; Preston, B. L.

    2012-12-01

    The vulnerability of agriculture is among the leading concerns surrounding climate change. Agricultural production is influenced by drought and other extremes in weather and climate. In regions of subsistence farming, worst case reductions in yield lead to malnutrition and famine. Reduced surplus contributes to poverty in agrarian economies. In more economically diverse and industrialized regions, variations in agricultural yield can influence the regional economy through market mechanisms. The latter grows in importance as agriculture increasingly services the energy market in addition to markets for food and fiber. Agriculture is historically a highly adaptive enterprise and will respond to future changes in climate with a variety of adaptive mechanisms. Nonetheless, the risk, if not expectation, of increases in climate extremes and hazards exceeding historical experience motivates scientifically based anticipatory assessment of the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. We investigate the sensitivity component of that vulnerability using EPIC, a well established field-scale model of cropping systems that includes the simulation of economic yield. The core of our analysis is the relationship between simulated yield and various indices of climate change, including the CCI/CLIVAR/JCOM ETCCDI indices, calculated from weather inputs to the model. We complement this core with analysis using the DSSAT cropping system model and exploration of relationships between historical yield statistics and climate indices calculated from weather records. Our analyses are for sites in the Southeast/Gulf Coast region of the United States. We do find "tight" monotonic relationships between annual yield and climate for some indices, especially those associated with available water. More commonly, however, we find an increase in the variability of yield as the index value becomes more extreme. Our findings contribute to understanding the sensitivity of crop yield as part of

  3. Numerical Simulation of Long-Term Climate Change in East Asia

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Jianping; SU Bingkai; ZHAO Ming; ZHAO Deming

    2006-01-01

    A 10-yr regional climate simulation was performed using the fifth-generation PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 3 (MM5V3) driven by large-scale NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Simulations of winter and summer mean regional climate features were examined against observations. The results showed that the model could well simulate the 10-yr winter and summer mean circulation, temperature, and moisture transport at middle and low levels. The simulated winter and summer mean sea level pressure agreed with the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. The model could well simulate the distribution and intensity of winter mean precipitation rates as well as the distribution of summer mean precipitation rates, but it overestimated the summer mean precipitation over North China. The model's ability to simulate the regional climate change in winter was superior to that in summer. In addition, the model could simulate the inter-annual variation of seasonal precipitation and surface air temperature. Geopotential heights and temperature at middle and high levels between simulations and observations exhibited high anomaly correlation coefficients. The model also showed large variability to simulate the regional climate change associated with the El Nino events. The MM5V3 well simulated the anomalies of summer mean precipitation in 1992 and 1995, while it demonstrated much less ability to simulate that in 1998. Generally speaking, the MM5V3 is capable of simulating the regional climate change, and could be used for long-term regional climate simulation.

  4. The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

    OpenAIRE

    Hamilton, Jacqueline; Tol, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holidays in the home country. In all three countries, climate change would first reduce the number of international arrivals - as Western European international tourist demand falls - but later increase ...

  5. The impact of climate change on tourism in Germany, the UK and Ireland: a simulation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hamilton, Jacqueline; Tol, Richard

    2007-01-01

    We downscale the results of a global tourism simulation model at a national resolution to a regional resolution. We use this to investigate the impact of climate change on the regions of Germany, Ireland and the UK. Because of climate change, tourists from all three countries would spend more holi

  6. Spontaneous abrupt climate change due to an atmospheric blocking–sea-ice–ocean feedback in an unforced climate model simulation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drijfhout, S.S.; Gleeson, E.; Dijkstra, H.A.; Livina, V.

    2013-01-01

    Abrupt climate change is abundant in geological records, but climate models rarely have been able to simulate such events in response to realistic forcing. Here we report on a spontaneous abrupt cooling event, lasting for more than a century, with a temperature anomaly similar to that of the Little

  7. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate......This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...

  8. Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn; Hansen, Ernst Jan de Place

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the effects of climate change relevant for Denmark, including the change in mean year values as well as the extent of maximum and minimum extremes. Described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the assumptions that the scenarios are based on were outlined...... and evaluated in a Danish context. The uncertainty of the scenarios leaves major challenges that, if not addressed and taken into account in building design, will grow far more serious as climate change progresses. Cases implemented in the Danish building stock illustrate adaptation to climate change...... and illustrate how building design can include mitigating measures to counteract climate change. Cases studied were individual buildings as well as the urban environment. Furthermore the paper describes some of the issues that must be addressed, as the building sector is investing in measures to adapt to climate...

  9. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W.L.

    1993-04-01

    Altering the natural disturbance regime of a landscape produces changes in the structure of that landscape as the landscape adjusts to the new disturbance regime. A computer simulation model was designed to enable analyses of the longterm changes to be expected in landscapes as their disturbance regime changes. The model, DISPATCH, is the first dynamic spatial simulation model built around a geographical information system (GIS). The model also includes a new set of programs, the r.le programs, that is the first set of programs designed for calculating landscape structure measures within a GIS. The DISPATCH model was used, to analyze the effects of human alterations of disturbance regimes and global change on landscape structure. Landscapes do not adjust quickly to these alterations based on available data. Landscapes subjected to warming or to longterm fire suppression experience a decline in patch richness, Shannon diversity, the amount of edge and contrast, but an increase in distance between patches, angular second moment (texture measure) and patch size. In contrast, landscapes subjected to cooling, the short-term effects of fire suppression, fragmentation, or traditional prescribed burning tend to respond with increasing richness, Shannon diversity, edge, and contrast, but declining distance, angular second moment, and size. The pattern of response is different at different scales, with important implications for species.

  10. Simulation of hydrosedimentological impacts caused by climate change in the Apucaraninha River watershed, southern Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos Iensen, I. R.; Bauer Schultz, G.; Dos Santos, I.

    2015-03-01

    Climate change can cause significant modifications in hydrosedimentological processes. Climate projections indicate the occurrence of extreme events, in terms of precipitation, droughts, floods and temperature. By increasing temperatures and altering precipitation regimes, climate change is expected to affect sediment dynamics. Predictions of the effects of climate change on streamflow and sediment yield vary widely, depending on the geographical location and climate scenarios used. Mathematical modelling can be used to simulate the hydrosedimentological processes in watersheds and enable the simulation of climate change effects on sediment yield. This paper aims to simulate the impacts of climate change hydrosedimentological dynamics in the Apucaraninha River watershed (504 km²), southern Brazil, considering the climate change scenarios A2 (pessimistic about the emissions of greenhouse gases) and B2 (optimistic about the emissions of greenhouse gases), developed by the IPCC. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to evaluate the impacts of climate projections on the sediment yield in the Apucaraninha River watershed. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow and sediment data from 1987 to 2012. The model presented satisfactory fit to the observed data allowing the reproduction of the current hydrological conditions of the watershed. Based on the satisfactory results in calibration and validation, the climate scenarios A2 and B2 were inserted to simulate streamflow and sediment conditions for the period 2071-2100. The results for both scenarios indicate that simulations of both climate scenarios resulted in changes in hydrosedimentological dynamics in the Apucaraninha River watershed, mainly in terms of decrease in average sediment yield due to the reduction in precipitation amount and increase in evapotranspiration. Our results also indicate that every 1% change in precipitation has resulted in 2.8% change in soil erosion and 1

  11. Climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marchal, V.; Dellink, R.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Clapp, C.; Chateau, J.; Magné, B.; Lanzi, E.; Vliet, J. van

    2012-01-01

    This chapter analyses the policy implications of the climate change challenge. Are current emission reduction pledges made in Copenhagen/Cancun enough to stabilise the climate and limit global average temperature increase to 2 oC? If not, what will the consequences be? What alternative growth pathwa

  12. Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... events, such as hurricanes and wildfires. These can cause death, injuries, stress, and mental health problems. Researchers are studying the best ways to lessen climate change and reduce its impact on our health. NIH: ...

  13. Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2017-04-03

    Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.

  14. Comparison of hydrological simulations of climate change using perturbation of observations and distribution-based scaling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Roosmalen, Lieke Petronella G; Sonnenborg, Torben; Jensen, Karsten Høgh;

    2011-01-01

    Projected climate change eff ects on groundwater and stream discharges were investigated through simulations with a distributed, physically based, surface water–groundwater model. Input to the hydrological model includes precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and temperature data...... of the HIRHAM4 regional climate model (RCM). The aim of this study was to determine whether the choice of bias-correction method, applied to the RCM data, aff ected the projected hydrological changes. One method consisted of perturbation of observed data (POD) using climate change signals derived from the RCM...... output, while the other consisted of distribution-based scaling (DBS) of the RCM output. Distributionbased scaling resulted in RCM control period data closely approaching the observed climate data and thereby considerably improved the simulation of recharge and stream discharges. When comparing...

  15. Local impact analysis of climate change on precipitation extremes: are high-resolution climate models needed for realistic simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabari, Hossein; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet; Saeed, Sajjad; Brisson, Erwan; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Willems, Patrick

    2016-09-01

    This study explores whether climate models with higher spatial resolutions provide higher accuracy for precipitation simulations and/or different climate change signals. The outputs from two convection-permitting climate models (ALARO and CCLM) with a spatial resolution of 3-4 km are compared with those from the coarse-scale driving models or reanalysis data for simulating/projecting daily and sub-daily precipitation quantiles. Validation of historical design precipitation statistics derived from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves shows a better match of the convection-permitting model results with the observations-based IDF statistics compared to the driving GCMs and reanalysis data. This is the case for simulation of local sub-daily precipitation extremes during the summer season, while the convection-permitting models do not appear to bring added value to simulation of daily precipitation extremes. Results moreover indicate that one has to be careful in assuming spatial-scale independency of climate change signals for the delta change downscaling method, as high-resolution models may show larger changes in extreme precipitation. These larger changes appear to be dependent on the timescale, since such intensification is not observed for daily timescales for both the ALARO and CCLM models.

  16. High Resolution AR5 Simulations of Climate Change for Mesoamerica using WRF

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowe, C. M.; Oglesby, R. J.; Hays, C.

    2011-12-01

    Mesoamerica (the countries from Mexico to Colombia) has been identified by IPCC as a low-latitude, developing region at considerable risk to climate change. Furthermore, the complex topography of the region, and interactions with adjacent tropical oceans, makes understanding of potential climate change from global climate models alone very problematic. The real need, however, for making these extremely computationally-demanding model simulations is to better define local and regional climate change effects so as to better identify and quantify impacts and associated vulnerabilities. This is an essential precursor to developing robust adaptation strategies. Previously, we made simulations with the WRF regional climate model forced by the NCAR CCSM global climate model to make scenarios based on IPCC AR4. With the recent release of the CMIP global model runs for IPCC AR5, opportunity has been provided to update the previous simulations. From a technical perspective, two key advancements have taken place: 1) The global simulations for AR5 feature models that are significantly improved and are run at higher resolution, and 2) Enhancements to computational resources means that we can run WRF at very high resolution for much more of Mesoamerica. In particular, the mountainous area simulated at 4 km resolution has been expanded greatly; also Jamaica and Hispanola are also now included. The experiment strategy includes simulations for 2006-2010 ('control') and 2056-2060 ('climate change scenario'), under the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The runs are underway as of this writing (expected completion November 2011). First results will be presented at the meeting, with focus on both how they differ from the earlier AR4 simulations, and on key implications for the Mesoamerican region.

  17. Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

    2016-09-01

    Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

  18. Numerical Simulation of Regional Climate Change under IPCC A2 Scenario in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Jianping; CHEN Xing; ZHAO Ming; SU Bingkai

    2009-01-01

    Regional climate change in China under the IPCC A2 Scenario, was simulated for continuous 10-yr period by the MM5V3, using the output of an IPCC A2 run from CISRO Mark 3 climate system model as lateral and surface boundary conditions. The regional climate change of surface air temperature, precipitation, and circulation were analyzed. The results showed that (1) the distribution of mean circulation, surface air temperature, and precipitation was reproduced by the MM5V3. The regional climate model was capable to improve the regional climate simulation driven by GCM. (2) The climate change simulation under the IPCC A2 Scenario indicated that the surface air temperature in China would increase in the future, with a stronger trend in winter and the increasing magnitude from the south to the north. The precipitation distribution would appear a distinct change as well. Annual mean precipitation would remarkably increase in Northeast China, Yangtze and Huaihe River Valley, and the south area of the valley. Meanwhile, rainfall would show a decreasing trend in partial areas of North China, and many regions of Southwest and Northwest China.

  19. Climatic changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    According to Cleo Paskal climatic changes are environmental changes. They are global, but their impact is local, and manifests them selves in the landscape, in our cities, in open urban spaces, and in everyday life. The landscape and open public spaces will in many cases be the sites where...... measurements to handle climatic changes will be positioned and enacted. Measurements taken are mostly adaptive or aimed to secure and protect existing values, buildings, infrastructure etc., but will in many cases also affects functions, meaning and peoples identification with the landscape and the open urban...... be addressed in order to develop and support social sustainability and identification. This paper explore and discuss how the handling of climatic changes in landscape and open urban spaces might hold a potential for them to become common goods....

  20. A new model to simulate climate-change impacts on forest succession for local land management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yospin, Gabriel I; Bridgham, Scott D; Neilson, Ronald P; Bolte, John P; Bachelet, Dominique M; Gould, Peter J; Harrington, Constance A; Kertis, Jane A; Evers, Cody; Johnson, Bart R

    2015-01-01

    We developed a new climate-sensitive vegetation state-and-transition simulation model (CV-STSM) to simulate future vegetation at a fine spatial grain commensurate with the scales of human land-use decisions, and under the joint influences of changing climate, site productivity, and disturbance. CV-STSM integrates outputs from four different modeling systems. Successional changes in tree species composition and stand structure were represented as transition probabilities and organized into a state-and-transition simulation model. States were characterized based on assessments of both current vegetation and of projected future vegetation from a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM). State definitions included sufficient detail to support the integration of CV-STSM with an agent-based model of land-use decisions and a mechanistic model of fire behavior and spread. Transition probabilities were parameterized using output from a stand biometric model run across a wide range of site productivities. Biogeographic and biogeochemical projections from the DGVM were used to adjust the transition probabilities to account for the impacts of climate change on site productivity and potential vegetation type. We conducted experimental simulations in the Willamette Valley, Oregon, USA. Our simulation landscape incorporated detailed new assessments of critically imperiled Oregon white oak (Quercus garryana) savanna and prairie habitats among the suite of existing and future vegetation types. The experimental design fully crossed four future climate scenarios with three disturbance scenarios. CV-STSM showed strong interactions between climate and disturbance scenarios. All disturbance scenarios increased the abundance of oak savanna habitat, but an interaction between the most intense disturbance and climate-change scenarios also increased the abundance of subtropical tree species. Even so, subtropical tree species were far less abundant at the end of simulations in CV-STSM than in

  1. Impacts of climate change on erosion of a watershed: Simulation of scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dario Cardoso de Lima

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Climate change set to occur in the coming years should have severe effects on erosion process, as factors leading to intensification of the peaks of rainfall and increasing temperature on the entire planet. Several studies have been performed to estimate climate change scenarios. This work was implemented in the Sao Bartolomeu's watershed, in Minas Gerais’ Forest Zone. From the A1B scenario proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, that set a projection for the global mean warming of Earth's surface, sediment production and runoff were estimated using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The simulated scenarios for projected climate changes that could happen in the next 90 years are quite alarming, with soil loss and runoff rates production much higher than those currently found in the cultures analyzed, reaching up to three times more in a critical increase in the rainfall volume and higher peaks of precipitation.

  2. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  3. Impacts of climate change on sorghum productivity in India: Simulation study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gangadhar Rao, D.; Katyal, J.C.; Sinha, S.K.; Srinivas, K. [Central Research Inst. for Dryland Agriculture, Hyderabad (India)

    1995-12-31

    An attempt was made to assess the impact of climate change on the crop productivity of sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Moench] in India. Climate change scenarios were projected for three sorghum growing areas in India using three global climate models (GCMs) namely; Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), and United Kingdom Meteorology Office (UKMO). The three diverse sorghum growing areas selected were Hyderabad, Akola, and Solapur. In the first two regions sorghum is grown in the rainy season, whereas in the third region it is grown in the post rainy season. Crop growth was simulated using the CERES-sorghum simulation model with climate change scenarios generated by the GCMs. The simulations were run with and without the direct effects of doubled atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels, under dryland, low N conditions, and under nonlimiting water and nutrient conditions. The simulated results indicated a decrease in yield and biomass of rainy season sorghum at Hyderabad and Akola under all climate change scenarios. Post rainy season sorghum grown at Solapur on stored soil water showed a marginal increase in yield. The positive effects of increased CO{sub 2}, if any, were masked by the adverse effects of predicted increase in temperature resulting in shortened crop growing seasons.

  4. Simulating Long Distance Seed Dispersal for Trees under Rapid Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snell, R. S.; Cowling, S. A.

    2011-12-01

    Future climate change scenarios predict a rapid shift in the size and location of suitable habitat for many tree species. The need for human assisted seed dispersal assumes that trees won't arrive at these new habitats by themselves. Some species won't be able to migrate fast enough to track climate change (i.e. estimated rates of 1000m/year or more), whereas other species may find moving through a fragmented landscape an additional challenge. It is important to identify the species which are most likely to require human assistance, however our current suite of vegetation-climate simulation models include unrealistic representations of seed dispersal. Vegetation climate models assume either no dispersal or perfect dispersal (where seeds can arrive at any destination regardless of barriers or absolute distance). For most tree species, seed dispersal lies somewhere between these two extremes. We will present the first time seed dispersal has been explicitly incorporated into a mechanistic vegetation-climate model (LPJ-GUESS). The model was parameterized using published seed dispersal kernels for various tree species in Eastern North America. Due to the large scale of the simulated area, only long distance dispersal events were included. However, these rare dispersal events were sufficient to simulate vegetation migration across a landscape. This model will improve our ability to predict which trees are likely to migrate fast enough under rapid climate change and those which are likely to need assistance.

  5. Possible impact of climate change on meningitis in northwest Nigeria: an assessment using CMIP5 climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdussalam, Auwal; Monaghan, Andrew; Steinhoff, Daniel; Dukic, Vanja; Hayden, Mary; Hopson, Thomas; Thornes, John; Leckebusch, Gregor

    2014-05-01

    Meningitis remains a major health burden throughout Sahelian Africa, especially in heavily-populated northwest Nigeria. Cases exhibit strong sensitivity to intra- and inter-annual climate variability, peaking during the hot and dry boreal spring months, raising concern that future climate change may increase the incidence of meningitis in the region. The impact of future climate change on meningitis risk in northwest Nigeria is assessed by forcing an empirical model of meningitis with monthly simulations from an ensemble of thirteen statistically downscaled global climate model projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Experiment Phase 5 (CMIP5) for RCPs 2.6, 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios. The results suggest future temperature increases due to climate change has the potential to significantly increase meningitis cases in both the early and late 21st century, and to increase the length of the meningitis season in the late century. March cases may increase from 23 per 100,000 people for present day (1990-2005), to 29-30 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the early century (2020-2035) and 31-42 per 100,000 (p<0.01) in the late century (2060-2075), the range being dependent on the emissions scenario. It is noteworthy that these results represent the climatological potential for increased cases due to climate change, as we assume current prevention and treatment strategies remain similar in the future.

  6. Use of RCM simulations to assess the impact of climate change on wind energy availability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pryor, S.C.; Barthelmie, Rebecca Jane

    2004-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on the feasibility and predictability of renewable energy sources including wind energy. This report presents an application and evaluation of physical (dynamical) downscaling toolsfor examining the impact of climate change...... on near-surface flow and hence wind energy density across northern Europe. It is shown that: - Simulated wind fields using the Rossby Centre coupled Regional Climate Model (RCM) (RCAO) during the control period(1961-1990) exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in in situ observations...... for a small increase in the annual wind energyresource over northern Europe between the control run (January 1, 1961 – December 30, 1990) and climate change projection period (January 1, 2071 – December 30, 2100), and for more substantial increases in mean wind speed and energy density during thewinter season...

  7. Simulated impacts of historical land cover changes on global climate in northern winter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chase, T.N.; Pielke Sr., R.A. [Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States). Dept. of Atmospheric Science; Kittel, T.G.F. [Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307 (United States); Nemani, R.R.; Running, S.W. [School of Forestry, University of Montana, Missoula, MT 59812 (United States)

    2000-02-01

    This ten-year general circulation model experiment compared a simulation where land surface boundary conditions were represented by observed, present day land cover to a simulation where the surface was represented by natural, potential land cover conditions. As a result of these estimated changes in historical land cover, significant temperature and hydrology changes affected tropical land surfaces, where some of the largest historical disruptions in total vegetation biomass have occurred. Also of considerable interest because of their broad scope and magnitude were changes in high-latitude Northern Hemisphere winter climate which resulted from changes in tropical convection, upper-level tropical outflow, and the generation of low-frequency tropical waves which propagated to the extratropics. These effects combined to move the Northern Hemisphere zonally averaged westerly jet to higher latitudes, broaden it, and reduce its maximum intensity. Low-level easterlies were also reduced over much of the tropical Pacific basin while positive anomalies in convective precipitation occurred in the central Pacific. Globally averaged changes were small. Comparisons of recent, observed trends in tropical and Northern Hemisphere, midlatitude climate with these simulations suggests an interaction between the climatic effects of historical land cover changes and other modes of climate variability. (orig.)

  8. Simulating direct and indirect effects of climatic changes on rare perennial plant species in fragmented landscapes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Korner, K.; Treydte, A.C.; Burkart, M.; Jeltsch, F.

    2010-01-01

    Question: How does climate change influence plant species population dynamics, their time to extinction, and proportion of occupied habitats in a fragmented landscape? Location: Germany and Central European lowland. Methods: We apply a mechanistic general simulation model to test the response of pla

  9. Collapse of Insect Gut Symbiosis under Simulated Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Yoshitomo; Tada, Akiyo; Musolin, Dmitry L.; Hari, Nobuhiro; Hosokawa, Takahiro; Fujisaki, Kenji

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Global warming impacts diverse organisms not only directly but also indirectly via other organisms with which they interact. Recently, the possibility that elevated temperatures resulting from global warming may substantially affect biodiversity through disrupting mutualistic/parasitic associations has been highlighted. Here we report an experimental demonstration that global warming can affect a pest insect via suppression of its obligate bacterial symbiont. The southern green stinkbug Nezara viridula depends on a specific gut bacterium for its normal growth and survival. When the insects were reared inside or outside a simulated warming incubator wherein temperature was controlled at 2.5°C higher than outside, the insects reared in the incubator exhibited severe fitness defects (i.e., retarded growth, reduced size, yellowish body color, etc.) and significant reduction of symbiont population, particularly in the midsummer season, whereas the insects reared outside did not. Rearing at 30°C or 32.5°C resulted in similar defective phenotypes of the insects, whereas no adult insects emerged at 35°C. Notably, experimental symbiont suppression by an antibiotic treatment also induced similar defective phenotypes of the insects, indicating that the host’s defective phenotypes are attributable not to the heat stress itself but to the suppression of the symbiont population induced by elevated temperature. These results strongly suggest that high temperature in the midsummer season negatively affects the insects not directly but indirectly via the heat-vulnerable obligate bacterial symbiont, which highlights the practical relevance of mutualism collapse in this warming world. PMID:27703075

  10. Gross nitrogen fluxes in intact beech-soil-microbe systems under experimentally simulated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedor, Javier; Bilela, Silvija; Gasche Gasche, Rainer; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Bimüller, Carolin; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Polle, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Rennenberg, Heinz; Dannenmann, Michael

    2013-04-01

    The vulnerability of beech forests of Central Europe to projected climate change conditions is a current matter of debate and concern. In order to investigate the response of N cycling in a typical beech forest to projected climate change conditions, we transplanted small lysimeters with intact beech-soil systems from a slope with N-exposure (representing present day climate conditions) to a slope with S exposure (serving as a warmer and drier model climate for future conditions). Lysimeters transfers within the N exposure served as control. After an equilibration period of 1 year, three isotope labeling/harvest cycles were performed: (1) comparison between N and S slopes under ambient conditions; (2) comparison between N and S slopes after intensified drought at S exposure; (3) rewetting after the drought period. Homogenous triple isotope labeling (15N/13C glutamine, 15NH4+, 15NO3-) in combination with 15N tracing and -pool dilution approaches as well as molecular analyses of nitrogen cycling genes and mycorrhiza morphotyping allowed to simultaneously quantify all N turnover processes in the intact beech-soil-microbe system. Nitrate was the major N source of beech seedlings with little importance of ammonium and no importance of glutamine. Experimental simulation of climate change resulted in significantly reduced gene copies of ammonia oxidizing bacteria in soil (AOB), a dramatic attenuation of microbial gross nitrate production from 252±83 mg N m-2 day-1 for the control treatment to 49±29 mg N m-2 day-1 for the climate change treatment and associated strong declines in soil nitrate concentrations as well as nitrate uptake by microorganisms and beech, which could not be compensated by uptake of ammonium or glutamine. Therefore, N content of beech seedlings was strongly reduced in the climate change treatment. Hence our data provide a microbial mechanism to explain nutritional limitations of beech under higher temperatures and drought and raise questions about

  11. Simulating the vegetation response in western Europe to abrupt climate changes under glacial background conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-N. Woillez

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard–Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere. Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. We force ORCHIDEE offline with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which the AMOC is forced to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available for comparison. The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to a hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO. For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC, the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  12. Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malanson, George P; Verdery, Ashton M; Walsh, Stephen J; Sawangdee, Yothin; Heumann, Benjamin W; McDaniel, Philip M; Frizzelle, Brian G; Williams, Nathalie E; Yao, Xiaozheng; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R

    2014-09-01

    The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications.

  13. Data gathering and simulation of climate change impacts in mountainous areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachelet, D.; Baker, B.; Hicke, J.; Conklin, D.; McKelvey, K.

    2007-12-01

    High mountains include species most at risk in a warming environment and are a critical link in the water supply chain for both human and natural systems. Scientists are monitoring and simulating these systems as snowpack depth changes, snowmelt timing changes, frozen soils melt and destabilize, and low elevation populations migrate upslope. Natural climate cycles and human activities interact with climate change trends and complicate the interpretation of the signal we observe. For ex. over the past 4 years in Yunnan (China), we documented that herbaceous alpine meadows are contracting as forest tree line advances and alpine shrub biomass increases. This is a result of interactions between human land use alteration and observed shifts in climate. In North America as snowpack decreases, wolverines and lynx denning conditions are jeopardized as human pressure reduces their extent. Coarse scale vegetation shift models using downscaled future climate scenarios fail to capture complex terrain features and microclimatic conditions that can either ensure critical habitat for the in-situ survival of threatened species or make things worse (ex. rockfalls) for climate migrants. Recent simulation efforts focus on high resolution models that address aspect, slope, soil types, and microclimate variations that affect local and migrating plants, their associated pollinators and insect herbivores, modifying habitat availability for birds and mammals

  14. Abrupt climate change and high to low latitude teleconnections as simulated in climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cvijanovic, Ivana

    of the present day atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the Last Glacial Maximum, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that could arise from changes in the oceanic transport. The role of tropical SSTs in the tropical...... precipitation shifts was further re-examined in idealized simulations with the fixed tropical sea surface temperatures, showing that the SST changes are fundamental to the tropical precipitation shifts. Regarding the high latitude energy loss, it was shown that the main energy compensation comes from...... the southern tropics, with the energy gain originating from the cloud radiative feedbacks, temperature and longwave water vapor feedbacks. Extended consideration of the various scenarios that can induce the southward precipitation shifts showed that the Southern Hemisphere warming simulations, in addition...

  15. Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Selbig, William R., E-mail: wrselbig@usgs.gov

    2015-07-15

    The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. - Highlights: • A stream temperature model was calibrated for three streams in northern Wisconsin. • The effect of climate change on stream temperature was simulated in each stream. • Annual average stream temperature was projected to rise from 1 to 3 °C by 2100. • Forecasts of stream temperature exceeded optimal ranges for brook trout.

  16. Large-scale atmospheric circulation biases and changes in global climate model simulations and their importance for climate change in Central Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. van Ulden

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The quality of global sea level pressure patterns has been assessed for simulations by 23 coupled climate models. Most models showed high pattern correlations. With respect to the explained spatial variance, many models showed serious large-scale deficiencies, especially at mid-latitudes. Five models performed well at all latitudes and for each month of the year. Three models had a reasonable skill. We selected the five models with the best pressure patterns for a more detailed assessment of their simulations of the climate in Central Europe. We analysed observations and simulations of monthly mean geostrophic flow indices and of monthly mean temperature and precipitation. We used three geostrophic flow indices: the west component and south component of the geostrophic wind at the surface and the geostrophic vorticity. We found that circulation biases were important, and affected precipitation in particular. Apart from these circulation biases, the models showed other biases in temperature and precipitation, which were for some models larger than the circulation induced biases. For the 21st century the five models simulated quite different changes in circulation, precipitation and temperature. Precipitation changes appear to be primarily caused by circulation changes. Since the models show widely different circulation changes, especially in late summer, precipitation changes vary widely between the models as well. Some models simulate severe drying in late summer, while one model simulates significant precipitation increases in late summer. With respect to the mean temperature the circulation changes were important, but not dominant. However, changes in the distribution of monthly mean temperatures, do show large indirect influences of circulation changes. Especially in late summer, two models simulate very strong warming of warm months, which can be attributed to severe summer drying in the simulations by these models. The models differ also

  17. Thermal and Hydrological Response of Rock Glaciers to Climate Change: A Scenario Based Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apaloo, Jotham; Brenning, Alexander; Gruber, Stephan

    2014-05-01

    Rock glaciers are ice-debris landforms characterized by creeping ice-rich permafrost. Recognition of their hydrological significance is increasing and is of particular relevance to the dry Andes, where rock glaciers cover greater area than glaciers. However, additional knowledge and research approaches pertaining to the seasonal hydrological contributions and climatic sensitivities of rock glaciers are necessary for improved water resource planning in many regions around the world. This work explores the utility of the energy and water balance model GEOtop to quantify the thermal and hydrological response of rock glaciers to climate scenarios. Weather data was generated with the intermediate-stochastic weather generator AWE-GEN for a site in the Southeast Swiss Alps, which marked a novel approach in cryospheric studies. Weather data for a reference scenario was generated which approximates conditions during the observation period (1985-2012). AWE-GEN produced time series of weather data for the reference scenario with statistical properties of precipitation in close agreement with observations, but air temperature showed substantial negative biases in summer months, which are attributed to difficulties in modeling local climatic characteristics. To examine the influence of climate change, data for eight climate change scenarios were generated by specifying change factors for mean monthly air temperature. The thermal and hydrological evolution of rock glacier soils were simulated for 50 years under the climatic forcing of the reference scenario followed by 50 years under each climate change scenario. Mean annual ground surface temperature (MAGST), active layer depth, permafrost total ice content, and the potential summer runoff contribution were quantified and compared before and after the onset of the climate change conditions. Air temperature increases in the climate change scenarios were amplified in MAGST. Stable rock glacier points were resistant to changes in

  18. Simulating the Hydrological Response of Rock Glaciers to Climate Change with GEOtop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apaloo, J.; Brenning, A.; Gruber, S.

    2013-05-01

    Rock glaciers are creeping bodies of ice-rich permafrost typical in cold high-mountain environments. In the arid and semi-arid Andes, and presumably other dry high-mountain areas, rock glaciers are considered more significant than glaciers as a water resource. The active layer of rock glaciers, and other seasonally frozen ground, in more temperate high-mountain climates may also represent an important contribution to summer baseflow in lowland rivers. The multi-decadal evolution of rock glacier permafrost and its relationship to climate is largely unknown and presents a massive challenge to assess in-situ due to limited spatial and temporal observations, the resource-intensity of geophysical observation, and lack of meteorological observation in most rock glaciers areas. As a step in addressing these knowledge gaps, this work simulates a rock glacier based on the Murtel-Corvatsch rock glacier in the Upper Engadin, Switzerland - the most intensively studied rock glacier in the world. Three decades of high-quality hourly climate data are used to generate 50 year time-series of synthetic meteorological observations with the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN) under the observed climate and 8 additional climate change scenarios. One-dimensional simulations of rock glaciers are conducted with the combined hydrological and energy balance model GEOtop, which is forced by the synthetic meteorological data. The experimental approach consists of three parts: 1) establishing a realistic rock glacier model under the observed climate, 2) subjecting the rock glacier to meteorological forcing from climate change scenarios, and 3) testing the sensitivity of the model to input parameters. For the mountain cryosphere community and many lowland populations around the world, this work represents an important outcome in developing the understanding and methodologies pertaining to the role of seasonal ice and permafrost in the hydrological cycle of high mountain watersheds.

  19. Abrupt climate change and high to low latitude teleconnections as simulated in climate models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cvijanovic, Ivana

    of the present day atmospheric mid-latitude energy transport compared to that of the Last Glacial Maximum, suggesting its ability to reorganize more easily and thereby dampen high latitude temperature anomalies that could arise from changes in the oceanic transport. The role of tropical SSTs in the tropical......High to low latitude atmospheric teleconnections have been a topic of increasing scientific interest since it was shown that high latitude extratropical forcing can induce tropical precipitation shifts through atmosphere-surface ocean interactions. In this thesis, several aspects of high to low...... precipitation shifts was further re-examined in idealized simulations with the fixed tropical sea surface temperatures, showing that the SST changes are fundamental to the tropical precipitation shifts. Regarding the high latitude energy loss, it was shown that the main energy compensation comes from...

  20. Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

  1. Trophic interactions between viruses, bacteria and nanoflagellates under various nutrient conditions and simulated climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouvy, M; Bettarel, Y; Bouvier, C; Domaizon, I; Jacquet, S; Le Floc'h, E; Montanié, H; Mostajir, B; Sime-Ngando, T; Torréton, J P; Vidussi, F; Bouvier, T

    2011-07-01

    Population dynamics in the microbial food web are influenced by resource availability and predator/parasitism activities. Climatic changes, such as an increase in temperature and/or UV radiation, can also modify ecological systems in many ways. A series of enclosure experiments was conducted using natural microbial communities from a Mediterranean lagoon to assess the response of microbial communities to top-down control [grazing by heterotrophic nanoflagellates (HNF), viral lysis] and bottom-up control (nutrients) under various simulated climatic conditions (temperature and UV-B radiations). Different biological assemblages were obtained by separating bacteria and viruses from HNF by size fractionation which were then incubated in whirl-Pak bags exposed to an increase of 3°C and 20% UV-B above the control conditions for 96 h. The assemblages were also provided with an inorganic and organic nutrient supply. The data show (i) a clear nutrient limitation of bacterial growth under all simulated climatic conditions in the absence of HNF, (ii) a great impact of HNF grazing on bacteria irrespective of the nutrient conditions and the simulated climatic conditions, (iii) a significant decrease in burst size (BS) (number of intracellular lytic viruses per bacterium) and a significant increase of VBR (virus to bacterium ratio) in the presence of HNF, and (iv) a much larger temperature effect than UV-B radiation effect on the bacterial dynamics. These results show that top-down factors, essentially HNF grazing, control the dynamics of the lagoon bacterioplankton assemblage and that short-term simulated climate changes are only a secondary effect controlling microbial processes.

  2. Simulation of climate change impacts on grain sorghum production grown under free air CO2 enrichment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Tongcheng; Ko, Jonghan; Wall, Gerard W.; Pinter, Paul J.; Kimball, Bruce A.; Ottman, Michael J.; Kim, Han-Yong

    2016-07-01

    Potential impacts of climate change on grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) productivity were investigated using the CERES-sorghum model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer v4.5. The model was first calibrated for a sorghum cultivar grown in a free air CO2 enrichment experiment at the University of Arizona, Maricopa, Arizona, USA in 1998. The model was then validated with an independent dataset collected in 1999. The simulated grain yield, growth, and soil water of sorghum for the both years were in statistical agreement with the corresponding measurements, respectively. Neither simulated nor measured yields responded to elevated CO2, but both were sensitive to water supply. The validated model was then applied to simulate possible effects of climate change on sorghum grain yield and water use efficiency in western North America for the years 2080-2100. The projected CO2 fertilizer effect on grain yield was dominated by the adverse effect of projected temperature increases. Therefore, temperature appears to be a dominant driver of the global climate change influencing future sorghum productivity. These results suggest that an increase in water demand for sorghum production should be anticipated in a future high-CO2 world.

  3. Role-play simulations for climate change adaptation education and engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumore, Danya; Schenk, Todd; Susskind, Lawrence

    2016-08-01

    In order to effectively adapt to climate change, public officials and other stakeholders need to rapidly enhance their understanding of local risks and their ability to collaboratively and adaptively respond to them. We argue that science-based role-play simulation exercises -- a type of 'serious game' involving face-to-face mock decision-making -- have considerable potential as education and engagement tools for enhancing readiness to adapt. Prior research suggests role-play simulations and other serious games can foster public learning and encourage collective action in public policy-making contexts. However, the effectiveness of such exercises in the context of climate change adaptation education and engagement has heretofore been underexplored. We share results from two research projects that demonstrate the effectiveness of role-play simulations in cultivating climate change adaptation literacy, enhancing collaborative capacity and facilitating social learning. Based on our findings, we suggest such exercises should be more widely embraced as part of adaptation professionals' education and engagement toolkits.

  4. Projected changes in atmospheric river events in Arizona as simulated by global and regional climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivera, Erick R.; Dominguez, Francina

    2016-09-01

    Inland-penetrating atmospheric rivers (ARs) affect the United States Southwest and significantly contribute to cool season precipitation. In this study, we examine the results from an ensemble of dynamically downscaled simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and their driving general circulation models (GCMs) in order to determine statistically significant changes in the intensity of the cool season ARs impacting Arizona and the associated precipitation. Future greenhouse gas emissions follow the A2 emission scenario from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report simulations. We find that there is a consistent and clear intensification of the AR-related water vapor transport in both the global and regional simulations which reflects the increase in water vapor content due to warmer atmospheric temperatures, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship. However, the response of AR-related precipitation intensity to increased moisture flux and column-integrated water vapor is weak and no significant changes are projected either by the GCMs or the NARCCAP models. This lack of robust precipitation variations can be explained in part by the absence of meaningful changes in both the large-scale water vapor flux convergence and the maximum positive relative vorticity in the GCMs. Additionally, some global models show a robust decrease in relative humidity which may also be responsible for the projected precipitation patterns.

  5. Impact of Land Use Change over North America as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chacon, A.; Sushama, L.; Beltrami, H.

    2014-12-01

    This study investigates the biogeophysical impacts of human-induced land cover change, particularly crops, on the regional climate of North America, using the fifth generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). To this effect, two simulations are performed with CRCM5 with different land cover datasets - one corresponding to the potential vegetation (i.e. without land use change) and the other corresponding to current land use. Most of the land use changes are concentrated over the US mid-west and south-central Canada, where forests and grasses have been replaced by crops. This transformation changes the surface parameters, particularly vegetation fractional area, leaf area index, albedo, roughness length and rooting depth among other variables, in the regions where land cover change takes place in these simulations. Both simulations span the 1988-2012 period and are driven by ERA-Interim at the lateral boundaries. The sea surface temperature and sea ice cover that vary inter-annually are also taken from ERA-Interim. Results suggest that regions where forests/grasses were replaced by crops generally show increases in albedo, particularly during the spring, fall and winter seasons, with the increase in albedo being largest for winter. This higher increase in albedo during winter is due to a snow-mediated positive feedback. The increased albedo values during winter, spring and fall are reflected in the cooler 2 meter temperature obtained in the simulation with land use change, compared to that with potential vegetation. Some cooling is observed in the summer for the simulation with land use change, mostly due to the increased latent heat fluxes. Increases in precipitation are noted for these regions, but are not statistically significant.

  6. Sensitivity of SWAT simulated streamflow to climatic changes within the Eastern Nile River basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Mengistu

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological model SWAT was run with daily station based precipitation and temperature data for the whole Eastern Nile basin including the three subbasins: the Abbay (Blue Nile, BaroAkobo and Tekeze. The daily and monthly streamflows were calibrated and validated at six outlets with station-based streamflow data in the three different subbasins. The model performed very well in simulating the monthly variability while the validation against daily data revealed a more diverse performance. The simulations indicated that around 60% of the average annual rainfalls of the subbasins were lost through evaporation while the estimated runoff coefficients were 0.24, 0.30 and 0.18 for Abbay, BaroAkobo and Tekeze subbasins, respectively. About half to two-thirds of the runoff could be attributed to surface runoff while the other contributions came from groundwater.

    Twenty hypothetical climate change scenarios (perturbed temperatures and precipitation were conducted to test the sensitivity of SWAT simulated annual streamflow. The result revealed that the annual streamflow sensitivity to changes in precipitation and temperature differed among the basins and the dependence of the response on the strength of the changes was not linear. On average the annual streamflow responses to a change in precipitation with no temperature change were 19%, 17%, and 26% per 10% change in precipitation while the average annual streamflow responses to a change in temperature and no precipitation change were −4.4% K−1, −6.4% K−1, and −1.3% K−1 for Abbay, BaroAkobo and Tekeze river basins, respectively.

    47 temperature and precipitation scenarios from 19 AOGCMs participating inCMIP3 were used to estimate future changes in streamflow due to climate changes. The climate models disagreed on both the strength and the direction of future precipitation changes. Thus, no clear conclusions could be made about future

  7. High-resolution regional climate simulations of precipitation and snowpack over the US northern Rockies in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Y.; Geerts, B.; Liu, C.

    2015-12-01

    This work first examines the performance of a regional climate model in capturing orographic precipitation and snowpack dynamics in the northern US Rockies. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is run at a sufficiently fine resolution (4-km horizontal grid spacing), over a sub-continental domain driven by the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), to examine WRF's ability to simulate the observed seasonal precipitation and snowpack dynamics. WRF retrospective simulations are being run over a 30-year period from 1980 to 2010. Observations from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL, providing precipitation rate and snowpack snow water equivalent (SWE)) and the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM, providing fine-scale monthly mean values of precipitation and temperature) are used for validation. The results show that WRF captures observed seasonal precipitation and snowpack build-up reasonably well. The second part of this work is in progress. A pseudo-global warming (PGW) technique is used to perturb the retrospective reanalysis with the anticipated change according to the consensus global model guidance under the CMIP5 "high emissions" (RCP8.5) scenario produced by the CCSM4. This technique preserves low-frequency general circulation patterns and the characteristics of storms entering the domain. The WRF model is rerun over 30 years centered on 2050 with perturbed initial and boundary conditions. The results will be used to examine the effect of climate variability and projected global warming on the statistical distributions of precipitation amounts and SWE in the studied domain.

  8. Simulated discharge trends indicate robustness of hydrological models in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Addor, Nans; Nikolova, Silviya; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Assessing the robustness of hydrological models under contrasted climatic conditions should be part any hydrological model evaluation. Robust models are particularly important for climate impact studies, as models performing well under current conditions are not necessarily capable of correctly simulating hydrological perturbations caused by climate change. A pressing issue is the usually assumed stationarity of parameter values over time. Modeling experiments using conceptual hydrological models revealed that assuming transposability of parameters values in changing climatic conditions can lead to significant biases in discharge simulations. This raises the question whether parameter values should to be modified over time to reflect changes in hydrological processes induced by climate change. Such a question denotes a focus on the contribution of internal processes (i.e., catchment processes) to discharge generation. Here we adopt a different perspective and explore the contribution of external forcing (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature) to changes in discharge. We argue that in a robust hydrological model, discharge variability should be induced by changes in the boundary conditions, and not by changes in parameter values. In this study, we explore how well the conceptual hydrological model HBV captures transient changes in hydrological signatures over the period 1970-2009. Our analysis focuses on research catchments in Switzerland undisturbed by human activities. The precipitation and temperature forcing are extracted from recently released 2km gridded data sets. We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate HBV for the whole 40-year period and for the eight successive 5-year periods to assess eventual trends in parameter values. Model calibration is run multiple times to account for parameter uncertainty. We find that in alpine catchments showing a significant increase of winter discharge, this trend can be captured reasonably well with constant

  9. WASCAL - West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use Regional Climate Simulations and Land-Atmosphere Simulations for West Africa at DKRZ and elsewhere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamann, Ilse; Arnault, Joel; Bliefernicht, Jan; Klein, Cornelia; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Kunstmann, Harald

    2014-05-01

    Changing climate and hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are among the most severe challenges to Africa in the 21st century. In particular West Africa faces an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope with negative impacts on humans and environment due to climate change, increased hydro-meteorological variability and land use changes. To help meet these challenges, the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) started an initiative with institutions in Germany and West African countries to establish together a West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). This activity is accompanied by an establishment of trans-boundary observation networks, an interdisciplinary core research program and graduate research programs on climate change and related issues for strengthening the analytical capabilities of the Science Service Center. A key research activity of the WASCAL Competence Center is the provision of regional climate simulations in a fine spatio-temporal resolution for the core research sites of WASCAL for the present and the near future. The climate information is needed for subsequent local climate impact studies in agriculture, water resources and further socio-economic sectors. The simulation experiments are performed using regional climate models such as COSMO-CLM, RegCM and WRF and statistical techniques for a further refinement of the projections. The core research sites of WASCAL are located in the Sudanian Savannah belt in Northern Ghana, Southern Burkina Faso and Northern Benin. The climate in this region is semi-arid with six rainy months. Due to the strong population growth in West Africa, many areas of the Sudanian Savannah have been already converted to farmland since the majority of the people are living directly or indirectly from the income produced in agriculture. The simulation experiments of the Competence Center and the Core Research Program are

  10. Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Hoymann

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time. In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential.

  11. Simulating the effect of glacial sea level changes on Indo-Pacific climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Nezio, P. N.; Tierney, J. E.; Timmermann, A.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Mapes, B. E.

    2014-12-01

    Lowered sea level during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) altered the geography of the Maritime Continent exposing the Sunda shelf. Multi-proxy evidence indicates that the exposure of the Sunda shelf has a first-order effect on the climate of the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The climate response involves changes in the Walker circulation driven by a massive reduction in atmospheric deep convection over the Sunda shelf. Few climate models participating in the Paleo Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) are capable of simulating this response. Using the Community Earth System Model Version 1 (CESM1) we show that a models ability of to simulate this response depends on the formulation of the atmospheric deep convection scheme. Using CESM1 we also find that the Indian Ocean amplifies the response via the Bjerknes feedback. This results in a large reorganization of the climate of the Indian Ocean, which during the LGM resembles the Pacific, with a cold tongue and dry conditions in the east, and warmer SSTs and wetter conditions in the west. Ideas for testing these mechanisms using proxy data will be discussed.

  12. Coupled model simulations of climate changes in the 20th century and beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yongqiang; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Bin; Wan, Hui; Li, Chao; Liu, Hailong; Li, Wei; Zheng, Weipeng; Zhou, Tianjun

    2008-07-01

    Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the “Climate of the 20th century experiment”, “CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment” and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios A1B and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural variations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temperature increases about 0.5°C and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model’s ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6°C in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5°C and 2.4°C in the A1B and B1 scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

  13. Coupled Model Simulations of Climate Changes in the 20th Century and Beyond

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YU Jiaqiang; ZHI Hai; WANG Bin; WAN Hui; LI Chai; LIU Hailong; LI Wei; ZHENG Weipeng; ZHOU Tianjun

    2008-01-01

    Several scenario experiments of the IPCC 4th Assessment Report (AR4) are performed by version g1.0 of a Flexible coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model (FGOALS) developed at the Institute of At- mospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), including the "Climate of the 20th century experiment", "CO2 1% increase per year to doubling experiment" and two separate IPCC greenhouse gases emission scenarios AIB and B1 experiments. To distinguish between the different impacts of natural vari- ations and human activities on the climate change, three-member ensemble runs are performed for each scenario experiment. The coupled model simulations show: (1) from 1900 to 2000, the global mean temper- ature increases about 0.5℃ and the major increase occurs during the later half of the 20th century, which is in consistent with the observations that highlights the coupled model's ability to reproduce the climate changes since the industrial revolution; (2) the global mean surface air temperature increases about 1.6℃ in the CO2 doubling experiment and 1.5℃ and 2.4℃ in the AlB and Bl scenarios, respectively. The global warming is indicated by not only the changes of the surface temperature and precipitation but also the temperature increase in the deep ocean. The thermal expansion of the sea water would induce the rise of the global mean sea level. Both the control run and the 20th century climate change run are carried out again with version g1.1 of FGOALS, in which the cold biases in the high latitudes were removed. They are then compared with those from version g1.0 of FGOALS in order to distinguish the effect of the model biases on the simulation of global warming.

  14. Hourly test reference weather data in the changing climate of Finland for building energy simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kirsti Jylhä

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic building energy simulations need hourly weather data as input. The same high temporal resolution is required for assessments of future heating and cooling energy demand. The data presented in this article concern current typical values and estimated future changes in outdoor air temperature, wind speed, relative humidity and global, diffuse and normal solar radiation components. Simulated annual and seasonal delivered energy consumptions for heating of spaces, heating of ventilation supply air and cooling of spaces in the current and future climatic conditions are also presented for an example house, with district heating and a mechanical space cooling system. We provide details on how the synthetic future weather files were created and utilised as input data for dynamic building energy simulations by the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy program and also for calculations of heating and cooling degree-day sums. The information supplied here is related to the research article titled “Energy demand for the heating and cooling of residential houses in Finland in a changing climate” [1].

  15. [China's rice field greenhouse gas emission under climate change based on DNDC model simulation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Zhan; Niu, Yi-long; Sun, Lai-xiang; Li, Chang-sheng; Liu, Chun-jiang; Fan, Dong-li

    2015-03-01

    In contrast to a large body of literature assessing the impact of agriculture greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on climate change, there is a lack of research examining the impact of climate change on agricultural GHG emissions. This study employed the DNDC v9.5, a state-of-art biogeochemical model, to simulate greenhouse gas emissions in China' s rice-growing fields during 1971-2010. The results showed that owing to temperature rising (on average 0.49 °C higher in the second 20 years than in the first 20 year) and precipitation increase (11 mm more in the second 20 years than in the first 20 years) during the rice growing season, CH4 and N2O emissions in paddy field increased by 0.25 kg C . hm-2 and 0.25 kg N . hm-2, respectively. The rising temperature accelerated CH4 emission and N2O emission increased with precipitation. These results indicated that climate change exerted impact on the mechanism of GHG emissions in paddy field.

  16. Simulating global soil-CO2 flux and its response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0.5°× 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil-CO2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil-CO2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil CO2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature,precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil-CO2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil-CO2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil-CO2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35 % above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.

  17. Simulating global soil-CO2 flux and its response to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2000-01-01

    It has been argued that increased soil respiration would become a major atmospheric source of CO2 in the event of global warming. The simple statistical models were developed based on a georeferenced database with 0.5° × 0.5° longitude/latitude resolution to simulate global soil-CO2 fluxes, to investigate climatic effects on these fluxes using sensitivity experiments, and to assess possible responses of soil-CO2 fluxes to various climate change scenarios. The statistical models yield a value of 69 PgC/a of global soil CO2 fluxes for current condition. Sensitivity experiments confirm that the fluxes are responsive to changes in temperature,precipitation and actual evapotranspiration, but increases in temperature and actual evapotranspiration affect soil-CO2 fluxes more than increases in precipitation. Using climatic change projections from four global circulation models, each corresponding to an equilibrium doubling of CO2, it can be found that the largest increases in soil-CO2 fluxes were associated with the boreal and tundra regions. The globally averaged soil-CO2 fluxes were estimated to increase by about 35 % above current values, providing a positive feedback to the greenhouse effect.

  18. National level water quality simulation and climate change scenarios in Finland with WSFS-Vemala model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huttunen, M.; Huttunen, I.; Seppänen, V.; Vehviläinen, B.

    2012-04-01

    included in the model. For natural background leaching and loading from forestry are used estimated values, process based description is under development. Sedimentation, erosion and denitrification are modelled for rivers. In lakes sedimentation, resuspension, release from sediments and denitrification are modelled. The WSFS-Vemala model is applied for load reduction and country wide climate change scenarios. In load reduction scenarios farming practices and fertilization of each field can be adjusted separately by the characteristics of the field. In climate change scenarios water quality until year 2060 is simulated. For the effects of climate change on agriculture we are using DREMFIA sector model scenarios from MTT Agrifood Research Finland. DREMFIA model gives scenarios as hectars of different crops, fertilization levels and number of cattle in four regions in Finland. Scenarios for point loading, scattered settlements, forestry and background leaching are based on expert estimates. WSFS-Vemala model is then simulated with modified weather, loading and farming input and results include concentrations in rivers and lakes and finally loading into the Baltic Sea. Preliminary scenario results show a slight increase in annual loading and remarkable shift in seasonal loading, with increased loading in winter. WSFS-Vemala model is also applied for real time simulation and forecasting of water quality, including forecasts for chlorophyll-a concentration. Forecasts are provided for the public by www pages at www.environment.fi/waterforecast.

  19. Simulating fire regimes in the Amazon in response to climate change and deforestation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silvestrini, Rafaella Almeida; Soares-Filho, Britaldo Silveira; Nepstad, Daniel; Coe, Michael; Rodrigues, Hermann; Assunção, Renato

    2011-07-01

    Fires in tropical forests release globally significant amounts of carbon to the atmosphere and may increase in importance as a result of climate change. Despite the striking impacts of fire on tropical ecosystems, the paucity of robust spatial models of forest fire still hampers our ability to simulate tropical forest fire regimes today and in the future. Here we present a probabilistic model of human-induced fire occurrence for the Amazon that integrates the effects of a series of anthropogenic factors with climatic conditions described by vapor pressure deficit. The model was calibrated using NOAA-12 night satellite hot pixels for 2003 and validated for the years 2002, 2004, and 2005. Assessment of the fire risk map yielded fitness values > 85% for all months from 2002 to 2005. Simulated fires exhibited high overlap with NOAA-12 hot pixels regarding both spatial and temporal distributions, showing a spatial fit of 50% within a radius of 11 km and a maximum yearly frequency deviation of 15%. We applied this model to simulate fire regimes in the Amazon until 2050 using IPCC's A2 scenario climate data from the Hadley Centre model and a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of deforestation and road expansion from SimAmazonia. Results show that the combination of these scenarios may double forest fire occurrence outside protected areas (PAs) in years of extreme drought, expanding the risk of fire even to the northwestern Amazon by midcentury. In particular, forest fires may increase substantially across southern and southwestern Amazon, especially along the highways slated for paving and in agricultural zones. Committed emissions from Amazon forest fires and deforestation under a scenario of global warming and uncurbed deforestation may amount to 21 +/- 4 Pg of carbon by 2050. BAU deforestation may increase fires occurrence outside PAs by 19% over the next four decades, while climate change alone may account for a 12% increase. In turn, the combination of climate change

  20. Future changes in cyclone climatology over Europe as inferred from a regional climate simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lionello, P. [University of Salento, Department of Material Science, Lecce (Italy); Boldrin, U. [University of Padua, Padua (Italy); Giorgi, F. [ICTP, Trieste (Italy)

    2008-05-15

    This study analyzes the cyclone climatology in regional climate model simulations of present day (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100, A2 and B2 emission scenarios) european climate conditions. The model domain covers the area from Scandinavia to Northern Africa and from the Eastern Atlantic to Russia at a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km. Compared to present day, in the A2 and B2 scenario conditions the annual average storm track intensity increases over the North-East Atlantic and decreases over Russia and the Eastern Mediterranean region. This overall change pattern is larger in the A2 than in the B2 simulations. However, the cyclone climatology change signal shows a large intermonthly variability and important differences across European regions. The largest changes are found over the North-East Atlantic, where the storm track intensity increases in winter and decreases in summer. A significant reduction of storm track intensity is found during late summer and autumn over the Mediterranean region, and from October to January over Russia. The number of cyclones decreases in future conditions throughout Europe, except over the Central Europe and Mediterranean regions in summer (where it increases). The frequency of intense cyclones and the depth of extreme cyclones increase over the North-East Atlantic, decrease over Russia and show an irregular response over the rest of the domain. (orig.)

  1. Effects of climate change on subterranean termite territory size: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang-Hee; Chon, Tae-Soo

    2011-01-01

    In order to study how climate change affects the territory size of subterranean termites, a lattice model was used to simulate the foraging territory of the Formosan subterranean termite, Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae), and the minimized local rules that are based on empirical data from the development of termites' foraging territory was applied. A landscape was generated by randomly assigning values ranging from 0.0 to 1.0 to each lattice site, which represented the spatially distributed property of the landscape. At the beginning of the simulation run, N territory seeds - one for each founding pair, were randomly distributed on the lattice space. The territories grew during the summer and shrank during the winter. In the model, the effects of climate change were demonstrated by changes in two variables: the period of the summer season, T, and the percentage of the remaining termite cells, σ, after the shrinkage. The territory size distribution was investigated in the size descending order for the values of T (= 10, 15, ... , 50) and σ (= 10, 15, ... , 50) at a steady state after a sufficiently long time period. The distribution was separated into two regions: the larger-sized territories and the smaller-sized territories. The slope, m, of the distribution of territory size on a semi-log scale for the larger-sized territories was maximal with T (45 ≤ T ≤ 50) in the maximal range and with σ in the optimal range (30 ≤ σ ≤ 40), regardless of the value of N. The results suggest that the climate change can influence the termite territory size distribution under the proper balance of T and σ in combination.

  2. Simulation of salinity intrusion along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts using climate-change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conrads, Paul A.; Roehl, Edwin A.; Daamen, Ruby C.; Cook, John B.

    2013-01-01

    Potential changes in climate could alter interactions between environmental and societal systems and adversely affect the availability of water resources in many coastal communities. Changes in streamflow patterns in conjunction with sea-level rise may change the salinity-intrusion dynamics of coastal rivers. Several municipal water-supply intakes are located along the Georgia and South Carolina coast that are proximal to the present day saltwater-freshwater interface of tidal rivers. Increases in the extent of salinity intrusion resulting from climate change could threaten the availability of freshwater supplies in the vicinity of these intakes. To effectively manage these supplies, water-resource managers need estimates of potential changes in the frequency, duration, and magnitude of salinity intrusion near their water-supply intakes that may occur as a result of climate change. This study examines potential effects of climate change, including altered streamflow and sea-level rise, on the dynamics of saltwater intrusion near municipal water-supply intakes in two coastal areas. One area consists of the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway (AIW) and the Waccamaw River near Myrtle Beach along the Grand Strand of the South Carolina Coast, and the second area is on or near the lower Savannah River near Savannah, Georgia. The study evaluated how future sea-level rise and a reduction in streamflows can potentially affect salinity intrusion and threaten municipal water supplies and the biodiversity of freshwater tidal marshes in these two areas. Salinity intrusion occurs as a result of the interaction between three principal forces—streamflow, mean coastal water levels, and tidal range. To analyze and simulate salinity dynamics at critical coastal gaging stations near four municipal water-supply intakes, various data-mining techniques, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were used to evaluate hourly streamflow, salinity, and coastal water-level data collected

  3. [Relationships between climate change and rice development and its yield formation: a simulation study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Taoju; Yin, Xinyou; Qi, Changhan; Tang, Jianjun; Chen, Meiqiu

    2005-03-01

    With the application of mechanistic model (RICAM 1.3, RIce growth Calendar Model), this paper simulated the rice development and its yield formation under different climatic conditions at multi-locations of Asia. A three-stage Beta model (3s-Beta) was developed to predict the flowering stage of rice and to describe its three successive phases of photo-thermal response, i.e., basic vegetative phase, photoperiod-sensitive phase, and post photoperiod-sensitive phase. The 1980-1989 multi-location data of Morioka (Japan, 39 degrees 43'N), Nanchang (China, 28 degrees 36'N) and Los Banos (Philippines, 14 degrees 11'N) were used to verify the suitability of the model in studying ecosystem change. Comparisons of simulated results with observed data showed that this model could generally predict the eco-physiological processes of rice, and performed very well over a wide range of environments.

  4. Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Willis, Stephen; Hole, Dave; Collingham, Yvonne

    2009-01-01

    Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird....... In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate...... technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios...

  5. Numerical simulation of the impact of underlying surface changes on Arctic climate

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Xiying; XIA Huasheng

    2014-01-01

    Using a regional atmospheric model for Arctic climate simulation, two groups of numerical experiments were carried out to study the inlfuence of changes in the underlying surface (land surface, sea surface, and sea ice (LS/SS/SI)) from mild ice years to severe ice years on Arctic climate. In each experiment in the same group, the initial values and lateral boundary conditions were identical. The underlying surface conditions were updated every six hours. The model was integrated for 10 a and monthly mean results were saved for analysis. Variations in annual mean surface air temperature were closely correlated with changes in LS/SS/SI, with a maximum change of more than 15 K. The impact of changes in LS/SS/SI on low-level air temperature was also evident, with signiifcant changes seen over the ocean. However, the maximum change was less than 2 K. For air temperature above 700 hPa, the impact of LS/SS/SI changes was not signiifcant. The distribution of annual mean sea level pressure differences was coincident with the distribution of annual mean sea ice concentration. The difference centers were located in the Barents Sea, the Kara Sea, and the East Siberian Sea, with the maximum value exceeding 3 hPa. For geopotential height, some results passed and some failed at-test. For results passing thet-test, the area of signiifcance did not decrease with height. There was a signiifcant difference at high levels, with a value of 27 gpm in the difference center at 200 hPa.

  6. Arctic climate changes in the 21st century: Ensemble model estimates accounting for realism in present-day climate simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Semenov, V. A.

    2016-11-01

    In the course of forecasting future climate changes in the Arctic Region based on calculations and an ensemble of the state-of-the-art global climate models, the results depend on the method of construction the statistics from the models.

  7. Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. van Pelt

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available global climate model (GCM or regional climate model (RCM simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better description of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias-corrected RCM simulations of the 1961–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995 precipitation time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also results in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

  8. Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    According to the National Academy of Sciences in American,the Earth's surface temperature has risen by about 1 degree Fahrenheit in the past century, with accelerated warming during the past two decades. There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.Human activities have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through the buildup of greenhouse gases-primarily carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The heat-trapping property of these gases is undisputed although uncertainties exist about exactly how earth's climate responds to them.

  9. Change of sea ice content in the Arctic and the associated climatic effects: detection and simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. I. Mokhov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling results of the impact of sea surface temperature and sea ice extent changes over the last decades on the formation of weather and climate anomalies are presented. It was found that the Arctic sea ice area reduction may lead to anti-cyclonic regimes’ formation causing anomalously cold winters in particular on the Russian territory. Using simulation with an atmospheric general circulation model, it is shown that the Early 20th Century Warming must have been accompanied by a large negative Arctic sea ice area anomaly in winter time. The results imply a considerable role of long-term natural climate variations in the modern sea ice area decrease. Estimates of the possible probability’s changes of the dangerous events of strong winds and high waves in the Arctic basin and favorable navigation conditions for the Northern Sea Route in the 21st century are made based on numerical model calculations. An increase of extreme wave height is found to the middle of the 21st century for Kara and Chukchi Seas as a consequence of prolonged run length and increased surface winds.

  10. Morpho-physiological response of Colobanthus quitensis and Juncus bufonius under different simulations of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuentes-Lillo, Eduardo; Cuba-Díaz, Marely; Rifo, Sergio

    2017-03-01

    Global warming has caused an increase in ambient temperature in Antarctica, which has led to changes in water availability due to increases of precipitation and the melting of permafrost. This scenario of climate change is shown to improve growth conditions, as well as increase populations and local expansion of native and non-native species in the Maritime Antarctic. We hypothesize that the combined effect of the increase in temperature and water availability will enhance the eco-physiological performance in Colobanthus quitensis (Kunth) Bartl. and Juncus bufonius L., being more evident in the non-native species. To test this, a combined effect of temperatures and water availability (4°C H2O (field capacity), 4 °C + H2O (40% more than field capacity),15°C H2O, 15 °C + H2O, 20°C H2O and 20 °C + H2O) on morphological and physiological variables on both species were assessed. Temperatures and water availability increased significantly, which enhanced variables such as plant length, number of inflorescences, Fv/Fm and chlorophyll content for both species. When evaluating both species separately, we determined that the most crucial climate factor for the growth and development of C. quitensis was water availability, while the main determinate factor for the growth and development of J. bufonius was temperature. Also, through the simulated temperature rise and increased water availability, J. bufonius reached higher growth rates compared to C. quitensis.

  11. Cross-scale intercomparison of climate change impacts simulated by regional and global hydrological models in eleven large river basins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Flörke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Yang, T.; Müller, C.; Leng, G.; Tang, Q.; Portmann, F. T.; Hagemann, S.; Gerten, D.; Wada, Y.; Masaki, Y.; Alemayehu, T.; Satoh, Y.; Samaniego, L.

    2017-01-04

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity of impact models designed for either scale to climate variability and change is comparable. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a much better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases with distinct differences in others, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability, but whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models validated against observed discharge should be used.

  12. Validation of SWAT simulated streamflow in the Eastern Nile and sensitivity to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Mengistu

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The hydrological model SWAT was calibrated with daily station based precipitation and temperature data for the whole Eastern Nile basin including the three subbasins: the Blue Nile, Baro Akobo and Tekeze. The daily and monthly streamflow was calibrated and validated at six outlets in the three different subbasins. The model performed very well in simulating the monthly variability of the Eastern Nile streamflow while comparison to daily data revealed a more diverse performance for the extreme events.

    Of the Eastern Nile average annual rainfall it was estimated that around 60% is lost through evaporation and estimated runoff coefficients were 0.24, 0.30 and 0.18 for Blue Nile, Baro Akobo and Tekeze subbasins, respectively. About half to two-thirds of the runoff could be attributed to surface runoff while the remaining contributions were from groundwater.

    The annual streamflow sensitivity to changes in precipitation and temperature differed among the basins and the dependence of the response on the strength of the changes was not linear. On average the annual streamflow responses to a change in precipitation with no temperature change was 19%, 17%, and 26% per 10% change in precipitation while the average annual streamflow responses to a change in temperature and no precipitation change was −4.4% K−1, −6.4% K−1, and −1.3% K−1 for Blue Nile, Baro Akobo and Tekeze river basin, respectively.

    While we show the Eastern Nile to be very sensitive to precipitation changes, using 47 temperature and precipitation scenarios from 19 AOGCMs participating in IPCC AR4 we estimated the future change in streamflow to be strongly dependent on the choice of climate model as the climate models disagree on both the strength and the direction of future precipitation changes. Thus, no clear conclusions can be made about the future changes in Eastern Nile streamflow.

  13. CMIP5 model simulations of Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation: current climate and future changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Laifang; Li, Wenhong; Ballard, Tristan; Sun, Ge; Jeuland, Marc

    2016-05-01

    Kiremt-season (June-September) precipitation provides a significant water supply for Ethiopia, particularly in the central and northern regions. The response of Kiremt-season precipitation to climate change is thus of great concern to water resource managers. However, the complex processes that control Kiremt-season precipitation challenge the capability of general circulation models (GCMs) to accurately simulate precipitation amount and variability. This in turn raises questions about their utility for predicting future changes. This study assesses the impact of climate change on Kiremt-season precipitation using state-of-the-art GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Compared to models with a coarse resolution, high-resolution models (horizontal resolution RCP) 4.5 scenario, these high-resolution models project an increase in precipitation over central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley in Ethiopia, but a decrease in precipitation over the southern part of the country. Such a dipole pattern is attributable to the intensification of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH) in a warmer climate, which influences Ethiopian Kiremt-season precipitation mainly by modulating atmospheric vertical motion. Diagnosis of the omega equation demonstrates that an intensified NASH increases (decreases) the advection of warm air and positive vorticity into the central Highlands and northern Great Rift Valley (southern part of the country), enhancing upward motion over the northern Rift Valley but decreasing elsewhere. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the high-resolution models project an intensification of the NASH by 15 (3 × 105 m2 s-2) geopotential meters (stream function) at the 850-hPa level, contributing to the projected precipitation change over Ethiopia. The influence of the NASH on Kiremt-season precipitation becomes more evident in the future due to the offsetting effects of two other major circulation systems: the East African Low

  14. Development of sustainable stormwater management using simulation-optimization approach under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yu-ru; Tung, Ching-pin

    2015-04-01

    Climate change had altered the hydrological processes globally with result that the extreme events have an increase in both the magnitude and the frequency. In particular, the high intensity rainfall cause the severe flooding had significantly impacted on human life and property in recently year. The traditional facility to handle runoff is the drainage system which is designed in accordance with the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curve. However, the flooding occurs once the drainage capacity is overwhelmed by excess stormwater. Thus the general solution are that expanding and upgrading the existing drainage system or increasing the design return period for new development areas to reduce flooding. Besides, another technique which is low impact development(LID) is regarded as more sustainable solution for stormwater management. The concept of LID is to control stormwater at the source by decentralized practices and mimic the predevelopment hydrologic conditions including storage, retention and high rate of infiltration. In contrast to conventional drainage system aims to move runoff away as quickly as possible, the LID approach attempts to keep runoff on site to reduce peak and volume of flow. The purpose of this research is to identify the most cost-effective measures for stormwater management after the analysis of the strategies combining drainage system and LID on various land use planning. The case study is a rural community in Hsinchu in Taiwan, and having residential areas, farms and pond. It is assumed that two land use layout are planned and drainage system are designed for 2-,and 5-year return period events. On the other hand, three LID technologies, namely green roof, porous pavement and rain barrel, are selected to place in the scenario of the drainage system for 2-year return period event, and the minimal peak flow is target to optimize LID placement by simulated annealing algorithm. Moreover, the design storm under climate change are derived from

  15. Climate change negotiation simulations for students: responses across gender and age.A case study: San Francisco State University World Climate Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasheva, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    For decades, role-play and simulation exercises have been utilized for learning and policy decision making. While the power of Model UN simulations in building first-person experience and understanding of complex international issues is well known, the effectiveness of simulations for inspiring citizen engagement in scientific public-policy issues is little studied. My work hypothesizes that climate-change negotiation simulations can enhance students' scientific literacy and policy advocacy. It aims to determine how age and gender influence the responsiveness of students to such simulations. During the 2015 fall semester, I am conducting World Climate exercises for fellow graduate and undergraduate students at San Francisco State University. At the end of the exercise, I will have collected the responses to an anonymous questionnaire in which the participants indicate age and gender. The questionnaire asks participants to describe their hopes and fears for the future and to propose public and personal actions for achieving a strong climate change agreement. I am tracking differences to determine whether participants' age and gender correlate with particular patterns of feeling and thinking. My future research will aim to determine whether and how strongly the World Climate Exercise has affected participants' actual policy engagement. This work will also reflect on my experiences as a World Climate facilitator. I will describe the facilitation process and then discuss some of my observations from the sessions. I will specify the challenges I have encountered and suggest strategies that can strengthen the learning process. World Climate is a computer-simulation-based climate change negotiations role-playing exercise developed by Climate Interactive in partnership with the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

  16. Simulation of CO2 enrichment and climate change impacts on soybean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Tongcheng; Ha, Bokeun; Ko, Jonghan

    2016-01-01

    The potential doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and associated changes in temperature and precipitation are crucial issues for agricultural productivity. The CROPGRO-Soybean model in decision support system for agro-technology transfer v4.5 to simulate soybean (Glycine max cv. Pioneer 93B15) grown in an elevated CO2 environment was calibrated and validated. Crop growth and yield data were obtained from a series of experiments conducted in central Illinois at the soybean free air CO2 enrichment facility from 2002 to 2006. The model was applied to simulate the possible impacts of climate change on soybean yield in the region for the future years of 2080-2100, centred on 2090. The model reproduced the measured soybean growth and yield well under ambient and elevated CO2 conditions. For the period from 2081 to 2100, soybean yield was projected to decrease due to elevated temperature but to increase due to elevated precipitation and CO2 concentration, achieving counterbalance. The adverse impacts of the warming conditions on soybean yield can be mitigated by late planting within an optimum planting range (day of year 145 to 152) as a management option, as well as by controlling genetic responses to thermal days in the reproductive stage.

  17. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools Project…

  18. Climate Change Schools Project...

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKinzey, Krista

    2010-01-01

    This article features the award-winning Climate Change Schools Project which aims to: (1) help schools to embed climate change throughout the national curriculum; and (2) showcase schools as "beacons" for climate change teaching, learning, and positive action in their local communities. Operating since 2007, the Climate Change Schools…

  19. Incubation period of Hemileia vastatrix in coffee plants in Brazil simulated under climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Ghini

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Risk analysis of climate change on plant diseases has great importance for agriculture since it allows the evaluation of management strategies to minimize future damages. This work aimed to simulate future scenarios of coffee rust (Hemileia vastatrix epidemics by elaborating geographic distribution maps using a model that estimates the pathogen incubation period and the output from three General Circulation Models (CSIRO-Mk3.0, INM-CM3.0, and MIROC3.2.medres. The climatological normal from 1961-1990 was compared with that of the decades 2020s, 2050s and 2080s using scenarios A2 and B1 from the IPCC. Maps were prepared with a spatial resolution of 0.5 × 0.5 degrees of latitude and longitude for ten producing states in Brazil. The climate variables used were maximum and minimum monthly temperatures. The maps obtained in scenario A2 showed a tendency towards a reduction in the incubation period when future scenarios are compared with the climatological normal from 1961-1990. A reduction in the period was also observed in scenario B1, although smaller than that in scenario A2.

  20. Climate change signal of thunderstorm frequency using high-resolution COSMO-CLM simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schefczyk, Lukas; Heinemann, Guenther

    2014-05-01

    It is generally assumed that temperature increase associated with global climate change will lead to increased thunderstorm intensity and associated heavy precipitation events. In the present study it is investigated whether the frequency of thunderstorm occurrences will in- or decrease and how the spatial distribution will change for the A1B scenario. The region of interest is Saar-Lor-Lux region (Saarland, Lorraine, Luxembourg) with a focus on Rhineland-Palatinate. Hourly and daily model data of the COSMO-CLM is used with a horizontal resolution of 4.5km and 1.3km. The simulations were carried out for three different decades: 1991-2000 (C20), 2041-2050 (A1B) and 2091-2100 (A1B). Thunderstorm indices are calculated to detect potential thunderstorms and differences in their frequency of occurrence in the three decades. The indices used are CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy), SLI (Surface Lifted Index), and TSP (Thunderstorm Severity Potential), which combines deep-layer-shear and the maximum vertical velocity. The significance of a potential climate signal was tested with a t-test and a power analysis was performed to quantify the uncertainty of the signal. The investigation of the present and future thunderstorms shows that the regional averaged frequencies will decrease in general, but several regions like the Saarland and especially elevated areas will have a potential increase in thunderstorm occurrences and intensity. Statistically, nearly none of the signals is significant and the power analysis yields low power to detect changes of severe thunderstorms but high power for classes with no to light thunderstorms. Therefore it can be concluded that the frequency of severe thunderstorm is not likely to increase.

  1. Simulated Benefits of Green Infrastructure for Urban Stormwater Management under Climate Change in Different Hydroclimatic and Archetypal Urban Settings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, T. E.; Butcher, J.; Sarkar, S.; Clark, C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change could significantly alter the occurrence and management of urban stormwater runoff quantity and quality. Responding to this challenge requires an improved understanding of potential changes together with the effectiveness of management responses for reducing impacts under range of potential future climatic conditions. Traditional gray stormwater infrastructure generally uses single-purpose, hard structures including detention basins and storm sewers to dispose of rainwater. Green infrastructure (GI) uses vegetation and soil to manage rainwater where it falls. GI has been gaining in popularity, and has been shown to provide a number of benefits for adapting to climate change including effects on stormwater quantity, quality and carbon and nutrient biogeochemical cycling. Uncertainty remains, however, due to limited understanding of GI performance in different hydroclimatic and urban settings, and in response to changes in climate. In this study we use simulation modeling to assess the impacts of climate change on both gray (wet ponds) and green infrastructure practices (green roofs, swales, bioretention) in different hydroclimatic and urban settings. Simulations were conducted using RHESSYs, a mechanistic, hydrologic and biogeochemical model, for 36 characteristic urban "archetypes" (AUSs) representing different development patterns and GI practices found in typical U.S. cities. Climate change scenarios are based on dynamically and temporally downscaled, mid-21st century climate model output from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results suggest altered mass and energy inputs will cause changes in performance of these practices for water quantity, water quality, and carbon sequestration that vary across the country. Infrastructure design should take these potential changes into consideration.

  2. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic...

  3. Angular momentum from CMIP5 climate change simulations, as related to Earth rotation excitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salstein, D.; Quinn, K.

    2012-04-01

    Atmospheric angular momentum parameters are calculated from revised scenarios of greenhouse gas concentration in use in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5, which investigates expected climate change. This phase includes new estimates for the so-called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), designed to simulate more realistically the future path of emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases throughout the 21st century. From time series of atmosphere-ocean models that adopt these parameters, we calculate the impact on the excitations for length of day and polar motion through the course of the current century, and hence portions of the expected changes in the ERP's due to the atmosphere. We diagnose the most important geographic areas as regional sources of such variations; earlier such models revealed the particular importance of resulting relevant wind changes in the upper atmosphere of the middle latitudes and the southern hemisphere high latitudes. The spread among the RCP scenarios and among a number of different models gives us an understanding of possible uncertainties in the estimates. Earlier calculations were for the 20th and 21st centuries with less sophisticated greenhouse gas concentration scenarios. We can compare the Earth rotation excitations from the retrospective portions of the model-based estimates with atmospheric reanalyses that are in archives at the IERS Special Bureau for the Atmosphere.

  4. Simulating Global Climate Summits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vesperman, Dean P.; Haste, Turtle; Alrivy, Stéphane

    2014-01-01

    One of the most persistent and controversial issues facing the global community is climate change. With the creation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1992 and the Kyoto Protocol (1997), the global community established some common ground on how to address this issue. However, the last several climate summits have failed…

  5. Climate Change Indicators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presents information, charts and graphs showing measured climate changes across 40 indicators related to greenhouse gases, weather and climate, oceans, snow and ice, heath and society, and ecosystems.

  6. CLIMATE CHANGE, Change International Negociations?

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Gao Xiaosheng

    2009-01-01

    @@ Climate change is one of key threats to human beings who have to deal with.According to Bali Action Plan released after the 2007 Bali Climate Talk held in Indonesia,the United Nations Framework on Climate Change(UNFCCC) has launched a two-year process to negotiate a post-2012 climate arrangement after the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012 and the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference will seal a final deal on post-2012 climate regime in December,2009.For this,the United Nation Chief Ban Ki Moon called 2009"the year ofclimate change".

  7. Assessing the impact of climate change on water resources in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of CORDEX climate simulations (Dano, Burkina Faso)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yira, Yacouba; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Steup, Gero; Yaovi Bossa, Aymar

    2016-04-01

    This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on water resources in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso, West Africa). There is now essential consensus on the importance of performing multi (climate)-model assessments in order to estimate the response of the West African climate to global change. Taking advantage of the results of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project, this study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in a catchment that is potentially vulnerable to climate change and presents a low adaptive capacity. The ensemble of RCMs was first evaluated to get an estimate of the historical simulated rainfall for the catchment by comparing RCM-based simulated historical rainfall to the observed rainfall data provided by the National Meteorological Service (DGM). In general, the simulated historical rainfall agrees within some degree of variability with the observed rainfall in regard to the mean annual cycle of precipitation. However, significant biases such as a double-peaked rainy season as well as the timing of the rainy season were exhibited by individual RCMs. A statistical bias correction (Quantile mapping) was then applied to the RCM-based simulated daily rainfall for the overlapping period of 1971-2000. The results confirm the effectiveness of the applied bias correction method for rainfall. Temperature and bias corrected rainfall data from the ensemble of RCMs was used as input for the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate river discharge, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and groundwater depth. To take into account the concern of the potential alteration of the climate change signal due to bias correction, uncorrected climate data for a single RCM was also applied to the hydrological model. The simulated hydrological variables show a similar behavior under observed and bias corrected climate data for the

  8. Downscaling of general circulation model outputs: simulation of the snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, E. [Centre Nat. de Recherches Meteorologiques Centre d`Etudes de la Neige, St. Martin d`Heres (France). Meteo-France; Timbal, B. [Groupe de Meteorologie a Grande Echelle et Climat, Toulouse (France); Brun, E. [Centre Nat. de Recherches Meteorologiques Centre d`Etudes de la Neige, St. Martin d`Heres (France). Meteo-France

    1996-12-01

    A downscaling method was developed to simulate the seasonal snow cover of the French Alps from general circulation model outputs under various scenarios. It consists of an analogue procedure, which associates a real meteorological situation to a model output. It is based on the comparison between simulated upper air fields and meteorological analyses from the European Centre for medium-range weather forecasts. The selection uses a nearest neighbour method at a daily time-step. In a second phase, the snow cover is simulated by the snow model CROCUS at several elevations and in the different regions of the French Alps by using data from the real meteorological situations. The method is tested with real data and applied to various ARPEGE/climate simulations: the present climate and two climate change scenarios. (orig.). With 10 figs., 4 tabs.

  9. Downscaling of general circulation model outputs: simulation of the snow climatology of the French Alps and sensitivity to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, E.; Timbal, B.; Brun, E.

    1996-12-01

    A downscaling method was developed to simulate the seasonal snow cover of the French Alps from general circulation model outputs under various scenarios. It consists of an analogue procedure, which associates a real meteorological situation to a model output. It is based on the comparison between simulated upper air fields and meteorological analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The selection uses a nearest neighbour method at a daily time-step. In a second phase, the snow cover is simulated by the snow model CROCUS at several elevations and in the different regions of the French Alps by using data from the real meteorological situations. The method is tested with real data and applied to various ARPEGE/Climat simulations: the present climate and two climate change scenarios.

  10. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7.......4 billion during 2003–2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management...

  11. Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.; Wada, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.

  12. Climate Changes in the 21st Century over the Asia-Pacific Region Simulated by the NCAR CSM and PCM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    The Climate System Model (CSM) and the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), two coupled global climate models without flux adjustments recently developed at NCAR, were used to simulate the 20th century climate using historical greenhouse gas and sulfate aerosol forcing. These simulations were extended through the 21st century under two newly developed scenarios, a business-as-usual case (BAU, CO2≈710 ppmv in 2100) and a CO2 stabilization case (STA550, CO2≈540 ppmv in 2100). The simulated changes in temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture over the Asia-Pacific region (10°-60°N, 55°-155°E) are analyzed, with a focus on the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and climate changes over the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. Under the BAU scenario, both the models produce surface warming of about 3-5℃ in winter and 2-3℃ in summer over most Asia. Under the STA550 scenario, the warming is reduced by 0.5-1.0℃ in winter and by 0.5℃ in summer. The warming is fairly uniform at the low latitudes and does not induce significant changes in the zonal mean Hadley circulation over the Asia-Pacific do main. While the regional precipitation changes from single CSM integrations are noisy, the PCM ensemble mean precipitation shows 10%-30% increases north of ~ 30°N and ~ 10% decreases south of ~ 30°N over the Asia-Pacific region in winter and 10%-20% increases in summer precipitation over most of the region. Soil moisture changes are small over most Asia. The CSM single simulation suggests a 30% increase in river runoff into the Three Gorges Dam, but the PCM ensemble simulations show small changes in the runoff.

  13. Future changes in extreme precipitation in the Rhine basin based on global and regional climate model simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. van Pelt

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Probability estimates of the future change of extreme precipitation events are usually based on a limited number of available Global Climate Model (GCM or Regional Climate Model (RCM simulations. Since floods are related to heavy precipitation events, this restricts the assessment of flood risks. In this study a relatively simple method has been developed to get a better picture of the range of changes in extreme precipitation events. Five bias corrected RCM simulations of the 1971–2100 climate for a single greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B SRES were available for the Rhine basin. To increase the size of this five-member RCM ensemble, 13 additional GCM simulations were analysed. The climate responses of the GCMs are used to modify an observed (1961–1995 precipitation/temperature time series with an advanced delta change approach. Changes in the temporal means and variability are taken into account. Time series resampling was applied to extend 35-yr GCM and RCM time-slices to 3000-yr series to estimate extreme precipitation with return periods up to 1000 yr. It is found that the range of future change of extreme precipitation across the five-member RCM ensemble is similar to results from the 13-member GCM ensemble. For the RCM ensemble, the time series modification procedure also resulted in a similar climate response compared to the signal deduced from the direct model simulations. The changes from the individual RCM simulations, however, systematically differ from those of the driving GCMs, especially for long return periods.

  14. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulation seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse in the 21st century of the thermohaline circulation is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  15. Abrupt change in climate and climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Pitman

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.

  16. Climate Change and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... sheets Fact files Questions & answers Features Multimedia Contacts Climate change and health Fact sheet Reviewed June 2016 Key ... in improved health, particularly through reduced air pollution. Climate change Over the last 50 years, human activities – particularly ...

  17. Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Brewer, Scott J.; Jones, Edward C.; Rondorf, Dennis W.

    2011-01-01

    A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020.

  18. Spatial variability of the response to climate change in regional groundwater systems -- examples from simulations in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waibel, Michael S.; Gannett, Marshall W.; Chang, Heejun; Hulbe, Christina L.

    2013-01-01

    We examine the spatial variability of the response of aquifer systems to climate change in and adjacent to the Cascade Range volcanic arc in the Deschutes Basin, Oregon using downscaled global climate model projections to drive surface hydrologic process and groundwater flow models. Projected warming over the 21st century is anticipated to shift the phase of precipitation toward more rain and less snow in mountainous areas in the Pacific Northwest, resulting in smaller winter snowpack and in a shift in the timing of runoff to earlier in the year. This will be accompanied by spatially variable changes in the timing of groundwater recharge. Analysis of historic climate and hydrologic data and modeling studies show that groundwater plays a key role in determining the response of stream systems to climate change. The spatial variability in the response of groundwater systems to climate change, particularly with regard to flow-system scale, however, has generally not been addressed in the literature. Here we simulate the hydrologic response to projected future climate to show that the response of groundwater systems can vary depending on the location and spatial scale of the flow systems and their aquifer characteristics. Mean annual recharge averaged over the basin does not change significantly between the 1980s and 2080s climate periods given the ensemble of global climate models and emission scenarios evaluated. There are, however, changes in the seasonality of groundwater recharge within the basin. Simulation results show that short-flow-path groundwater systems, such as those providing baseflow to many headwater streams, will likely have substantial changes in the timing of discharge in response changes in seasonality of recharge. Regional-scale aquifer systems with flow paths on the order of many tens of kilometers, in contrast, are much less affected by changes in seasonality of recharge. Flow systems at all spatial scales, however, are likely to reflect

  19. Simulated impacts of climate change on phosphorus loading to Lake Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robertson, Dale; Saad, David A.; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Lorenz, David J

    2016-01-01

    Phosphorus (P) loading to the Great Lakes has caused various types of eutrophication problems. Future climatic changes may modify this loading because climatic models project changes in future meteorological conditions, especially for the key hydrologic driver — precipitation. Therefore, the goal of this study is to project how P loading may change from the range of projected climatic changes. To project the future response in P loading, the HydroSPARROW approach was developed that links results from two spatially explicit models, the SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) transport and fate watershed model and the water-quantity Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS was used to project changes in streamflow throughout the Lake Michigan Basin using downscaled meteorological data from eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) subjected to three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Downscaled GCMs project a + 2.1 to + 4.0 °C change in average-annual air temperature (+ 2.6 °C average) and a − 5.1% to + 16.7% change in total annual precipitation (+ 5.1% average) for this geographic area by the middle of this century (2045–2065) and larger changes by the end of the century. The climatic changes by mid-century are projected to result in a − 21.2% to + 8.9% change in total annual streamflow (− 1.8% average) and a − 29.6% to + 17.2% change in total annual P loading (− 3.1% average). Although the average projected changes in streamflow and P loading are relatively small for the entire basin, considerable variability exists spatially and among GCMs because of their variability in projected future precipitation.

  20. AN AGCM +SSiB MODEL SIMULATION ON CHANGES IN PALAEOMONSOON CLIMATE AT 21 KA BP IN CHINA

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈星; 于革; 刘健

    2001-01-01

    The numerical simulation experiment of climate at Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka BP)in China is made by using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled with land surface processes (AGCM+SSiB) and earth orbital parameters and boundary forcing conditions at 21 ka. The modeled climate features are compared with reconstructed conditions at 21 ka from palco-lake data and pollen data. The results show that the simulated climate conditions at 21 ka in China are fairly comparable with palco-climatological data. The climate features at 21 ka in China from the experiment are characterized by a drier in the east and a wetter in the west and in the Tibetan Plateau as well. According to the analysis of distribution of pressure and precipitation, as well as the intensity of atmospheric circulation at 21 ka, monsoon circulation in eastern Asia was significantly weak comparing with the present. In the Tibetan Plateau, the intensity of summer monsoon circulation was strengthened, and winter monsoon was a little stronger than the present.The simulation with given forcing boundary conditions, especially the different vegetation coverage, can reproduce the climate condition at the LGM in China, and therefore provides dynamical mechanisms on the climate changes at 21 ka.

  1. Climate change experiments in Hamburg

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gubasch, U. [DKRZ, Hamburg (Germany)

    1995-12-31

    Nowadays the anthropogenic climate change is been simulated world wide with a fair number of coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (IPCC, 1995). Typical model problems do not only blur the estimates of the anthropogenic climate change, but they also cause errors in the estimates of the natural variability. An accurate representation of the natural variability of the climate system is, however, essential for the detection of the anthropogenic climate change. All model simulations world wide show, even though they differ considerably in their technical details and the experimental setup and the forcing data, similar amplitudes and pattern of the predicted climate change. In the model world it is already at the beginning of the next century possible to detect the anthropogenic climate change in the global mean. If the model results are applied in a `fingerprint analysis`, then it is possible to prove that the climate change during the last 30 years is with a significance of 95 % larger than any other climate change during the last 100 years. The experiments performed in Hamburg show that the experimental conditions are of great importance for the estimate of the future climate. The usual starting point of most of the simulations with present day conditions (1980-1990) is too late, because then a considerable part of the warming since the beginning of the industrialization (ca. 1750) has been neglected. Furthermore it has only recently become clear that the sulphat-aerosols play an important role in the present day climate and in the future climate. The effect of the sulphat aerosols has first been simulated in a number of equilibrium simulations with mixed layer models, but nowadays with globally coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation models

  2. Combining state-and-transition simulations and species distribution models to anticipate the effects of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian W. Miller

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs are known for their ability to explore the combined effects of multiple disturbances, ecological dynamics, and management actions on vegetation. However, integrating the additional impacts of climate change into STSMs remains a challenge. We address this challenge by combining an STSM with species distribution modeling (SDM. SDMs estimate the probability of occurrence of a given species based on observed presence and absence locations as well as environmental and climatic covariates. Thus, in order to account for changes in habitat suitability due to climate change, we used SDM to generate continuous surfaces of species occurrence probabilities. These data were imported into ST-Sim, an STSM platform, where they dictated the probability of each cell transitioning between alternate potential vegetation types at each time step. The STSM was parameterized to capture additional processes of vegetation growth and disturbance that are relevant to a keystone species in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem—whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis. We compared historical model runs against historical observations of whitebark pine and a key disturbance agent (mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae, and then projected the simulation into the future. Using this combination of correlative and stochastic simulation models, we were able to reproduce historical observations and identify key data gaps. Results indicated that SDMs and STSMs are complementary tools, and combining them is an effective way to account for the anticipated impacts of climate change, biotic interactions, and disturbances, while also allowing for the exploration of management options.

  3. Modeled response of the West Nile virus vector Culex quinquefasciatus to changing climate using the dynamic mosquito simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.

    2010-09-01

    Climate can strongly influence the population dynamics of disease vectors and is consequently a key component of disease ecology. Future climate change and variability may alter the location and seasonality of many disease vectors, possibly increasing the risk of disease transmission to humans. The mosquito species Culex quinquefasciatus is a concern across the southern United States because of its role as a West Nile virus vector and its affinity for urban environments. Using established relationships between atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation) and mosquito development, we have created the Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model (DyMSiM) to simulate Cx. quinquefasciatus population dynamics. The model is driven with climate data and validated against mosquito count data from Pasco County, Florida and Coachella Valley, California. Using 1-week and 2-week filters, mosquito trap data are reproduced well by the model ( P climate projection data generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Research CCSM3 general circulation model, we applied temperature and precipitation offsets to the climate data at each location to evaluate mosquito population sensitivity to possible future climate conditions. We found that temperature and precipitation shifts act interdependently to cause remarkable changes in modeled mosquito population dynamics. Impacts include a summer population decline from drying in California due to loss of immature mosquito habitats, and in Florida a decrease in late-season mosquito populations due to drier late summer conditions.

  4. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  5. Long-term soil transplant simulating climate change with latitude significantly alters microbial temporal turnover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liang, Yuting; Jiang, Yuji; Wang, Feng; Wen, Chongqing; Deng, Ye; Xue, Kai; Qin, Yujia; Yang, Yunfeng; Wu, Liyou; Zhou, Jizhong; Sun, Bo

    2015-12-01

    To understand soil microbial community stability and temporal turnover in response to climate change, a long-term soil transplant experiment was conducted in three agricultural experiment stations over large transects from a warm temperate zone (Fengqiu station in central China) to a subtropical zone (Yingtan station in southern China) and a cold temperate zone (Hailun station in northern China). Annual soil samples were collected from these three stations from 2005 to 2011, and microbial communities were analyzed by sequencing microbial 16S ribosomal RNA gene amplicons using Illumina MiSeq technology. Our results revealed a distinctly differential pattern of microbial communities in both northward and southward transplantations, along with an increase in microbial richness with climate cooling and a corresponding decrease with climate warming. The microbial succession rate was estimated by the slope (w value) of linear regression of a log-transformed microbial community similarity with time (time-decay relationship). Compared with the low turnover rate of microbial communities in situ (w=0.046, PClimate warming lead to a faster succession rate of microbial communities as well as lower species richness and compositional changes compared with in situ and climate cooling, which may be related to the high metabolic rates and intense competition under higher temperature. This study provides new insights into the impacts of climate change on the fundamental temporal scaling of soil microbial communities and microbial phylogenetic biodiversity.

  6. Climate Change Law

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Farber, D.A.; Peeters, Marjan

    2016-01-01

    This book brings together over seventy fifty authors for a comprehensive examination of the emerging global regime of climate change law. Despite the relative youth of climate change law, we can already begin to see the outlines of legal regimes addressing climate change mitigation and adaptation (a

  7. Robustness of Recommended Farm Plans in England under Climate Change: A Monte Carlo Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gibbons, J.M.; Ramsden, S.J. [Division of Agricultural Sciences, University of Nottingham, Sutton Bonington Campus, Loughborough, LE12 5RD (United Kingdom)

    2005-01-01

    A methodology is described for estimating robustness of recommended farm plans under climate change while maintaining a meaningful representation of the underlying farm system. Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) of crop yield data is used in conjunction with a fully specified farm-level model and output from a field worktime model. Estimates of farm net margin, enterprise mix (choice and area of enterprises), labour, machinery, storage and animal housing under mean crop yields and field worktimes for current (2000s) and 2050s conditions are generated. MCS is used to estimate the effect of crop yield variation on farm profitability and enterprise mix for the same periods by running the farm-level model with no constraints and running it constrained to the mean data plan. Estimates of robustness, measured as the percentage difference and the probability of exceeding the mean farm net-margin, were calculated from the outputs from these runs. For three representative farm types, mean farm net margin increased; however changes in robustness as shown by percentage difference in farm net margin depended on farm type while the probability of exceeding the mean plan net-margin decreased by 2050 indicating an increase in robustness. The most robust farm type had a diversified mix of enterprises and required no additional fixed resources by the 2050s. The least robust farm type was in a marginal location and mean plan recommendations for the 2050s required additional investment in fixed resources, particularly irrigation. It is concluded that the information provided by the methodology would be particularly useful to farmers: where mean data plans are not robust, MCS results could be used with financial planning techniques to minimise the impact of variability, rather than using high cost inputs to reduce variability per se.

  8. Simulating the vegetation response to abrupt climate changes under glacial conditions with the ORCHIDEE/IPSL models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.-N. Woillez

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The last glacial period has been punctuated by two types of abrupt climatic events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO and Heinrich (HE events. These events, recorded in Greenland ice and in marine sediments, involved changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC and led to major changes in the terrestrial biosphere.

    Here we use the dynamical global vegetation model ORCHIDEE to simulate the response of vegetation to abrupt changes in the AMOC strength. To do so, we force ORCHIDEE off-line with outputs from the IPSL_CM4 general circulation model, in which we have forced the AMOC to change by adding freshwater fluxes in the North Atlantic. We investigate the impact of a collapse and recovery of the AMOC, at different rates, and focus on Western Europe, where many pollen records are available to compare with.

    The impact of an AMOC collapse on the European mean temperatures and precipitations simulated by the GCM is relatively small but sufficient to drive an important regression of forests and expansion of grasses in ORCHIDEE, in qualitative agreement with pollen data for an HE event. On the contrary, a run with a rapid shift of the AMOC to an hyperactive state of 30 Sv, mimicking the warming phase of a DO event, does not exhibit a strong impact on the European vegetation compared to the glacial control state. For our model, simulating the impact of an HE event thus appears easier than simulating the abrupt transition towards the interstadial phase of a DO.

    For both a collapse or a recovery of the AMOC the vegetation starts to respond to climatic changes immediately but reaches equilibrium about 200 yr after the climate equilibrates, suggesting a possible bias in the climatic reconstructions based on pollen records, which assume equilibrium between climate and vegetation. However, our study does not take into account vegetation feedbacks on the atmosphere.

  9. Impacts of simulated climate change and fungal symbionts on survival and growth of a foundation species in sand dunes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emery, Sarah M; Rudgers, Jennifer A

    2013-12-01

    For many ecosystems, one of the primary avenues of climate impact may be through changes to foundation species, which create habitats and sustain ecosystem services. For plants, microbial symbionts can often act as mutualists under abiotic stress and may mediate foundational plant responses to climate change. We manipulated the presence of endophytes in Ammophila breviligulata, a foundational sand dune species, to evaluate their potential to influence plant responses to climate change. We simulated projected climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation using a growth chamber experiment. A 5 °C increase in temperature relative to current climate in northern Michigan reduced A. breviligulata survival by 45 %. Root biomass of A. breviligulata, which is critical to dune stabilization, was also strongly reduced by temperature. Plants inoculated with the endophyte had 14 % higher survival than endophyte-free plants. Contrary to our prediction, endophyte symbiosis did not alter the magnitude or direction of the effects of climate manipulations on A. breviligulata survival. However, in the absence of the endophyte, an increase in temperature increased the number of sand grains bound by roots by 80 %, while in symbiotic plants sand adherence did not significantly respond to temperature. Thus, plant-endophyte symbiosis actually negated the benefits in ecosystem function gained under a warmer climate. This study suggests that heat stress related to climate change in the Great Lakes may compromise the ability of A. breviligulata to stabilize dune ecosystems and reduce carbon storage and organic matter build-up in these early-successional systems due to reduced plant survival and root growth.

  10. Coupled simulations of Greenland Ice Sheet and climate change up to A.D. 2300

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vizcaino, M.; Mikolajewicz, U.; Ziemen, F.; Rodehacke, C.B.; Greve, R.; Van den Broeke, M.R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent observations indicate a high sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to climate change. We examine the coupling between the GrIS surface mass balance, elevation, and dynamical flow with one of the few coupled GrIS and atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Bidirectional coupling f

  11. Simulating future trends in hydrological regime of a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruelland, D.; Ardoin-Bardin, S.; Collet, L.; Roucou, P.

    2012-03-01

    SummaryThis paper assesses the future variability of water resources in the short, medium and long terms over a large Sudano-Sahelian catchment in West Africa. Flow simulations were performed with a daily conceptual model. A period of nearly 50 years (1952-2000) was chosen to capture long-term hydro-climatic variability. Calibration and validation were performed on the basis of a multi-objective function that aggregates a variety of goodness-of-fit indices. The climate models HadCM3 and MPI-M under SRES-A2 were used to provide future climate scenarios over the catchment. Outputs from these models were used to generate daily rainfall and temperature series for the 21st century according to: (i) the unbias and delta methods application and (ii) spatial and temporal downscaling. A temperature-based formula was used to calculate present and future potential evapotranspiration (PET). The daily rainfall and PET series were introduced into the calibrated and validated hydrological model to simulate future discharge. The model correctly reproduces the observed discharge at the basin outlet. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion is over 89% for both calibration and validation periods, and the volume error between simulation and observation is close to null for the overall considered period. With regard to future climate, the results show clear trends of reduced rainfall over the catchment. This rainfall deficit, together with a continuing increase in potential evapotranspiration, suggests that runoff from the basin could be substantially reduced, especially in the long term (60-65%), compared to the 1961-1990 reference period. As a result, the long-term hydrological simulations show that the catchment discharge could decrease to the same levels as those observed during the severe drought of the 1980s.

  12. Using the WRF Regional Model to Produce High Resolution AR4 Simulations of Climate Change for Mesoamerica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oglesby, R. J.; Rowe, C. M.; Hays, C.

    2010-12-01

    Mesoamerica (the countries from Mexico to Colombia) has been identified by IPCC as a low-latitude, developing region at considerable risk to climate change. Furthermore, the complex topography of the region, and interactions with adjacent tropical oceans, makes understanding of potential climate change from global climate models alone very problematic. Statistical downscaling techniques for the region are not very robust, largely due to the lack of sufficient observations upon which to base the large-scale to small-scale relationships. Therefore, we have used the WRF regional climate model to dynamically downscale global results from a NCAR CCSM simulation employing the A2 emission scenario that was made for IPCC AR4. All of Mesoamerica is covered with a domain with a spatial resolution of 12 km, with selected high elevation regions of Mexico, Colombia, and Peru also covered by 4 km domains. A three-year simulation was made forced by NCEP reanalyses for the years 1991, 1992, and 1993. This run has been evaluated using actual station observations in addition to gridded datasets, in order to identify model strengths and weaknesses (biases) for this region. This comparison clearly demonstrated the need to properly resolve elevation, including both topographic heights and valleys. It also showed the difficulty that the model has in simulating extreme precipitation events, as it usually underestimates the actual amount. Additional five-year simulations were made forced with CCSM output for 2000-2004 (present-day control) and 2050-2054 (climate change scenario for the A2 emission scenario) to investigate potential climate change for the region. Summarizing key results, all land regions, except for a narrow strip along the Pacific coast of Mexico, showed a warming. This warming was largest (up to 3-4 deg C) in the highland regions and the Amazonian basin. The warming was less (generally 1-2 deg C) in the lowland and intermountain regions. Changes in precipitation strongly

  13. Multi-agent agro-economic simulation of irrigation water demand with climate services for climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Balbi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Farmers’ irrigation practices play a crucial role in the sustainability of crop production and water consumption, and in the way they deal with the current and future effects of climate change. In this study, a system dynamic multi-agent model adopting the soil water balance provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56 was developed to explore how farmers’ decision making may affect future water needs and use with a focus on the role of climate services, i.e. forecasts and insurance. A climatic projection record representing the down-scaled A1B market scenario (a balance across all sources of the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC is used to produce future daily data about relative humidity, precipitation, temperature and wind speed. Two types of meteorological services are made available: i a bi-weekly bulletin; and ii seasonal forecasts. The precision of these services was altered to represent different conditions, from perfect knowledge to poor forecasts. Using the available forecasts, farming agents take adaptation decisions concerning crop allocation and irrigation management on the basis of their own risk attitudes. Farmers’ attitudes are characterized by fuzzy classifications depending on age, relative income and crop profitability. Farming agents’ adaptation decisions directly affect the crop and irrigation parameters, which in turn affect future water needs on a territorial level. By incorporating available and future meteorological services, the model allows the farmer’s decision making-process to be explored together with the consequent future irrigation water demand for the period 2015 to 2030. The model prototype is applied to a data set of the Venice Lagoon Watershed, an area of 2038 km2 in north-east Italy, for a preliminary test of its performance and to design future development objectives.

  14. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mezősi Gábor

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021–2050 and 2071–2100 compared to the reference period (1961–1990 in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5–6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly ‘pastures’, ‘complex cultivation patterns’, and ‘land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation’ are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  15. Assessment of future scenarios for wind erosion sensitivity changes based on ALADIN and REMO regional climate model simulation data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mezősi, Gábor; Blanka, Viktória; Bata, Teodóra; Ladányi, Zsuzsanna; Kemény, Gábor; Meyer, Burghard C.

    2016-07-01

    The changes in rate and pattern of wind erosion sensitivity due to climate change were investigated for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 compared to the reference period (1961-1990) in Hungary. The sensitivities of the main influencing factors (soil texture, vegetation cover and climate factor) were evaluated by fuzzy method and a combined wind erosion sensitivity map was compiled. The climate factor, as the driving factor of the changes, was assessed based on observed data for the reference period, while REMO and ALADIN regional climate model simulation data for the future periods. The changes in wind erosion sensitivity were evaluated on potentially affected agricultural land use types, and hot spot areas were allocated. Based on the results, 5-6% of the total agricultural areas were high sensitive areas in the reference period. In the 21st century slight or moderate changes of wind erosion sensitivity can be expected, and mostly `pastures', `complex cultivation patterns', and `land principally occupied by agriculture with significant areas of natural vegetation' are affected. The applied combination of multi-indicator approach and fuzzy analysis provides novelty in the field of land sensitivity assessment. The method is suitable for regional scale analysis of wind erosion sensitivity changes and supports regional planning by allocating priority areas where changes in agro-technics or land use have to be considered.

  16. Downscaling a global climate model to simulate climate change over the US and the implication on regional and urban air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Trail

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the contiguous United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF regional climate model (RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12 km by 12 km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major US cities. The high-resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse-resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the US during fall (western US, Texas, northeastern, and southeastern US, one region during summer (Texas, and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast. Changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels are increased temperatures and stagnation along with decreased precipitation and ventilation. We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the US, which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air

  17. Simulated Impacts of a change in the AMOC on the global Climate; an Energy Budget Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Codron, F.; L'Héveder, B.

    2015-12-01

    This study explores the impact of anomalous northward oceanic heat transport bythe AMOC on the global climate. We first use the LMDZ5 AGCM of theLaboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique coupled to a slab ocean, with realisticzonal asymmetries and seasonal cycle. Two anomalous surface heatingsreproducing the impact of an idealized AMOC strenghtening are imposed: (a)uniform heating over the North Atlantic basin, and (b) concentrated heating inthe Gulf Stream region; in both cases a compensating uniform cooling in the SouthernOcean is applied. The magnitude of the heating, and of the implied northwardinter-hemispheric heat transport, are within the range of current naturalvariability. Both simulations show global effects, which can be interpreted as acompensation by the atmosphere of the anomalous oceanic heat transport: theIntertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts north toward the heatinganomalies. This shift is accompanied by a northward shift of the jets and stormtracks in both hemispheres, consistent with anomalous soutward heat transportby transient eddies in the subtropics. In the extra-tropics, the clear-sky radiative response tends to damp theprescribed anomalies, while the cloud response acts as a large positivefeedback on the oceanic forcing, mainly due to the low-cloud induced shortwaveanomalies. In the tropics, the clear-sky response is dominated instead byhumidity changes and reinforces the ITCZ movements. We then use a fully coupled GCM in glacial conditions, in which a freshwaterflux ("hosing") is added in the North Atlantic to weaken the AMOC. We stillobserve a strong compensation between the ocean and atmosphere heat transports,as well as a southward shift of the ITCZ, and of the Southern Hemisphere jetand storm tracks. There is however no warming of the Southern mid and highlatitudes. In addition to the compensation mechanisms of the slab ocean settings, newfeedbacks on the meridional energy transports by the oceanic circulationappear. The Southern

  18. Future Climate Change Index for Greenland Evaluated through Pattern Scaling and CMIP5 - Enhanced and Utilized Climate Information from One RCM Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olesen, Martin; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens; Boberg, Fredrik; Stendel, Martin

    2016-04-01

    Climate change affects the Greenlandic society both advantageously and disadvantageously. Changes in temperature and precipitation patterns may result in changes in a number of derived society related climate indices, such as the length of growing season or the number of annual dry days or a combination of the two - indices of substantial importance to society in a climate adaptation context. Detailed climate indices require high resolution downscaling. We have carried out a very high resolution (5 km) simulation with the regional climate model HIRHAM5, forced by the global model EC-Earth. Evaluation of RCM output is usually done with an ensemble downscaled output with multiple RCM's and GCM's. Here we have introduced and tested a new technique; a translation of the robustness of an ensemble of GCM models from CMIP5 into the specific index from the HIRHAM5 downscaling through a correlation between absolute temperatures and its corresponding index values from the HIRHAM5 output. The procedure is basically conducted in three steps: First, the correlation between temperature and a given index for the HIRHAM5 simulation by a best fit to a second order polynomial is identified. Then, the standard deviation from the CMIP5 simulations is introduced to show the corresponding standard deviation of the index from the HIRHAM5 run. And finally, a bias correction based on observations as well as the CMIP5 ensemble is calculated. Results based on selected societal relevant indices with focus on for the future climate in Greenland calculated for the rcp4.5 and rcp8.5 scenarios will be presented.

  19. Testing the Ability of Numerical Model to Simulate Climate and Its Change With 4D-EOF Analysis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    The four-dimensional empirical orthogonal function (4D-EOF), which in reality is a simple combination of three-dimensional EOF (3D-EOF) and extended EOF (EEOF), is put forward in this paper to test the ability of numerical model to simulate climate and its change. The 4D-EOF analysis is able to reveal not only the horizontal characteristic pattern of analyzed variable, and its corresponding annual and inter-annual variations, but also the vertical structural characteristics. The method suggested is then used to analyze the monthly mean 100-, 500-, 700-, and 1000-hPa geopotential height fields (4941 grids and grid spacing 60 km) and their anomaly fields in 1989-1998 simulated by the MM5V3 from the RMIP (Regional Climate Model Inter-comparison Project for East Asia)-Ⅱ, as well as their counterparts (used as the observed fields)from the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis dataset in the same period. The ability of MM5V3 in simulating East Asian climate and its change is tested by comparing the 4D-EOF analysis results of the simulated and observed datasets. The comparative analyzed results show that the horizontal pattern of the first eigenvector of the observed monthly mean geopotential height fields and its vertical equivalent barotropic feature were well simulated; the simulations of the first two eigenvectors of the observed monthly mean geopotential height anomaly fields were also successful for their horizontal abnormal distributions and significant equivalent barotropic features in the vertical were well reproduced; and furthermore, the observed characteristics,such as the variation with height, the annual and inter-annual variations of the monthly mean geopotential height/anomaly fields were also well reflected in the simulation. Therefore, the 4D-EOF is able to comprehensively test numerical model's ability of simulating the climate and its change, and the simulation ability of MM5V3 for the climate and its change in East Asia in the 1990s was satisfactory.

  20. Simulating Pacific Northwest Forest Response to Climate Change: How We Made Model Results Useful for Vulnerability Assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, J. B.; Kerns, B. K.; Halofsky, J.

    2014-12-01

    GCM-based climate projections and downscaled climate data proliferate, and there are many climate-aware vegetation models in use by researchers. Yet application of fine-scale DGVM based simulation output in national forest vulnerability assessments is not common, because there are technical, administrative and social barriers for their use by managers and policy makers. As part of a science-management climate change adaptation partnership, we performed simulations of vegetation response to climate change for four national forests in the Blue Mountains of Oregon using the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) for use in vulnerability assessments. Our simulation results under business-as-usual scenarios suggest a starkly different future forest conditions for three out of the four national forests in the study area, making their adoption by forest managers a potential challenge. However, using DGVM output to structure discussion of potential vegetation changes provides a suitable framework to discuss the dynamic nature of vegetation change compared to using more commonly available model output (e.g. species distribution models). From the onset, we planned and coordinated our work with national forest managers to maximize the utility and the consideration of the simulation results in planning. Key lessons from this collaboration were: (1) structured and strategic selection of a small number climate change scenarios that capture the range of variability in future conditions simplified results; (2) collecting and integrating data from managers for use in simulations increased support and interest in applying output; (3) a structured, regionally focused, and hierarchical calibration of the DGVM produced well-validated results; (4) simple approaches to quantifying uncertainty in simulation results facilitated communication; and (5) interpretation of model results in a holistic context in relation to multiple lines of evidence produced balanced guidance. This latest

  1. An efficient regional energy-moisture balance model for simulation of the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Robinson

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore the response of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS to climate change on long (centennial to multi-millennial time scales, a regional energy-moisture balance model has been developed. This model simulates seasonal variations of temperature and precipitation over Greenland and explicitly accounts for elevation and albedo feedbacks. From these fields, the annual mean surface temperature and surface mass balance can be determined and used to force an ice sheet model. The melt component of the surface mass balance is computed here using both a positive degree day approach and a more physically-based alternative that includes insolation and albedo explicitly. As a validation of the climate model, we first simulated temperature and precipitation over Greenland for the prescribed, present-day topography. Our simulated climatology compares well to observations and does not differ significantly from that of a simple parameterization used in many previous simulations. Furthermore, the calculated surface mass balance using both melt schemes falls within the range of recent regional climate model results. For a prescribed, ice-free state, the differences in simulated climatology between the regional energy-moisture balance model and the simple parameterization become significant, with our model showing much stronger summer warming. When coupled to a three-dimensional ice sheet model and initialized with present-day conditions, the two melt schemes both allow realistic simulations of the present-day GIS.

  2. Responses of Bacterial Communities to Simulated Climate Changes in Alpine Meadow Soil of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rui, Junpeng; Li, Jiabao; Wang, Shiping; An, Jiaxing; Liu, Wen-tso; Lin, Qiaoyan; Yang, Yunfeng; He, Zhili; Li, Xiangzhen

    2015-09-01

    The soil microbial community plays an important role in terrestrial carbon and nitrogen cycling. However, microbial responses to climate warming or cooling remain poorly understood, limiting our ability to predict the consequences of future climate changes. To address this issue, it is critical to identify microbes sensitive to climate change and key driving factors shifting microbial communities. In this study, alpine soil transplant experiments were conducted downward or upward along an elevation gradient between 3,200 and 3,800 m in the Qinghai-Tibet plateau to simulate climate warming or cooling. After a 2-year soil transplant experiment, soil bacterial communities were analyzed by pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA gene amplicons. The results showed that the transplanted soil bacterial communities became more similar to those in their destination sites and more different from those in their "home" sites. Warming led to increases in the relative abundances in Alphaproteobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Actinobacteria and decreases in Acidobacteria, Betaproteobacteria, and Deltaproteobacteria, while cooling had opposite effects on bacterial communities (symmetric response). Soil temperature and plant biomass contributed significantly to shaping the bacterial community structure. Overall, climate warming or cooling shifted the soil bacterial community structure mainly through species sorting, and such a shift might correlate to important biogeochemical processes such as greenhouse gas emissions. This study provides new insights into our understanding of soil bacterial community responses to climate warming and cooling.

  3. Regional moisture change over India during the past Millennium: A comparison of multi-proxy reconstructions and climate model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanski, Stefan; Fallah, Bijan; Befort, Daniel J.; Prasad, Sushma; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2014-11-01

    The Indian Monsoon Variability during the past Millennium has been simulated with the ECHAM5 model in two different time slices: Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age. The simulations are compared with new centennial-resolving paleo-reconstructions inferred from various well-dated multi-proxies from two core regions, the Himalaya and Central India. A qualitative moisture index is derived from the proxies and compared with simulated moisture anomalies. The reconstructed paleo-hydrological changes between the Little Ice Age and the Medieval Climate Anomaly depict a dipole pattern between Himalaya and Central India, which is also captured by the model. In the Medieval Climate Anomaly the model exhibits stronger (weaker) dipole signals during summer (winter) compared to Little Ice Age. In summer (winter) months of "Medieval Climate Anomaly minus Little Ice Age" the model simulates wetter conditions over eastern (western and central) Himalaya. Over Central India, a simulated weakening of Indian Summer Monsoon during warmer climate is coincident with reconstructed drying signal in the Lonar Lake record. Based on the model simulations, we can differentiate three physical mechanisms which can lead to the moisture anomalies: (i) the western and central Himalaya are influenced by extra-tropical Westerlies during winter, (ii) the eastern Himalaya is affected by summer variations of temperature gradient between Bay of Bengal and Indian subcontinent and by a zonal band of intensified Indian-East Asian monsoon link north of 25°N, and (iii) Central India is dominated by summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the northern Arabian Sea which have an effect on the large-scale advection of moist air masses. The temperatures in the Arabian Sea are linked to the Indo Pacific Warm Pool, which modulates the Indian monsoon strength.

  4. Effects of Cropland Cover Changes on Regional Climate over Western China Based on Simulations with RegCM3

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI Xue-Li; HE Hui-Juan; REN Hong-Chang

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of land cover changes on regional climate in Shaan-Gan-Ning (SGN) in western China were simulated with RegCM3. Sensitivity experiments were conducted by replacing crop grids with different new land cover types in the key area of SGN, where the returning cropland to tree/grass project has been carried out since 1999. The modified new land cover types include desert, forest, shrub and grass. They represent degraded, improved, and maintained vegetation cover with natural canopy in the key area. Results from three individual case studies show that the land cover change causes changes in temperature and terrestrial water variables especially within the key area, while changes in precipitation are found for a larger area. The strongest changes appear where the cropland is degraded to bare soil, leading to increasing temperature and decreases in rainfall, evaporation and soil water. Opposite changes occur when cropland changed into forests, especially with strong increases in soil water. When cropland changed to grass and shrub land, the climatic changes are closer to those with forest cover. This shows the importance of improving and maintaining the vegetation in SGN for the ecosystem and regional climate.

  5. Simulation Modeling of Lakes in Undergraduate and Graduate Classrooms Increases Comprehension of Climate Change Concepts and Experience with Computational Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Cayelan C.; Gougis, Rebekka Darner

    2016-08-01

    Ecosystem modeling is a critically important tool for environmental scientists, yet is rarely taught in undergraduate and graduate classrooms. To address this gap, we developed a teaching module that exposes students to a suite of modeling skills and tools (including computer programming, numerical simulation modeling, and distributed computing) that students apply to study how lakes around the globe are experiencing the effects of climate change. In the module, students develop hypotheses about the effects of different climate scenarios on lakes and then test their hypotheses using hundreds of model simulations. We taught the module in a 4-hour workshop and found that participation in the module significantly increased both undergraduate and graduate students' understanding about climate change effects on lakes. Moreover, participation in the module also significantly increased students' perceived experience level in using different software, technologies, and modeling tools. By embedding modeling in an environmental science context, non-computer science students were able to successfully use and master technologies that they had previously never been exposed to. Overall, our findings suggest that modeling is a powerful tool for catalyzing student learning on the effects of climate change.

  6. Simulation Modeling of Lakes in Undergraduate and Graduate Classrooms Increases Comprehension of Climate Change Concepts and Experience with Computational Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Cayelan C.; Gougis, Rebekka Darner

    2017-02-01

    Ecosystem modeling is a critically important tool for environmental scientists, yet is rarely taught in undergraduate and graduate classrooms. To address this gap, we developed a teaching module that exposes students to a suite of modeling skills and tools (including computer programming, numerical simulation modeling, and distributed computing) that students apply to study how lakes around the globe are experiencing the effects of climate change. In the module, students develop hypotheses about the effects of different climate scenarios on lakes and then test their hypotheses using hundreds of model simulations. We taught the module in a 4-hour workshop and found that participation in the module significantly increased both undergraduate and graduate students' understanding about climate change effects on lakes. Moreover, participation in the module also significantly increased students' perceived experience level in using different software, technologies, and modeling tools. By embedding modeling in an environmental science context, non-computer science students were able to successfully use and master technologies that they had previously never been exposed to. Overall, our findings suggest that modeling is a powerful tool for catalyzing student learning on the effects of climate change.

  7. Long-term soil transplant simulating climate change with latitude significantly alters microbial temporal turnover

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    To understand soil microbial community stability and temporal turnover in response to climate change, a long-term soil transplant experiment was conducted in three agricultural experiment stations over large transects from a warm temperate zone (Fengqiu station in central China) to a subtropical zone (Yingtan station in southern China) and a cold temperate zone (Hailun station in northern China). Annual soil samples were collected from these three stations from 2005 to 2011, and microbial com...

  8. Asking about climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard; D'haen, Sarah Ann Lise

    2014-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate change will strongly affect people across the globe. Likely impacts of and adaptations to climate change are drawing the attention of researchers from many disciplines. In adaptation research focus is often on perceptions of climate change...... and on vulnerability and adaptation strategies in a particular region or community. But how do we research the ways in which people experience changing climatic conditions, the processes of decision-making, the actual adaptation strategies carried out and the consequences of these for actors living and dealing...... with climate change? On the basis of a literature review of all articles published in Global Environmental Change between 2000 and 2012 that deal with human dimensions of climate change using qualitative methods this paper provides some answers but also raises some concerns. The period and length of fieldwork...

  9. Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

    2014-12-01

    Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

  10. Financing climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2006-03-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.

  11. Interpreting Recent Global-Mean Temperature Changes in the Lower Stratosphere Simulated by Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geller, M. A.; Zhou, T.; Martin, W. G. K.; Song, H.; Wang, S.; Nazarenko, L.; Lo, K. W. K.

    2014-12-01

    It has been suggested that state-of-the-art climate models, both with interactive chemistry and without interactive chemistry (CCMVal-2 and CMIP5) do not reproduce the observed lower stratosphere temperature anomalies that are observed by satellite microwave sounding instruments. We find that making two changes in the analysis can eliminate this disagreement. One is a change in the definition of the temperature anomalies as being zero for the 4-year mean (1979-1982) at the beginning of the data and modeling analysis period. Such a definition of the zero temperature anomaly does not take into proper account that observations over a relatively short period represent a single realization of several possible climate states, and thus this zero anomaly definition can be misleading when comparing anomalies from observations and models. The other change is our taking into account all CMIP-5 and CCMVal-2 model runs that ran realistic scenarios for the period 1979-2005. With these two changes in the analysis, we conclude that temperature changes from both CMIP-5 and CCMVal-2 models agree well with MSU-4 observations over the period 1979-2005.

  12. Integrated assessment of socioeconomic and climate change on the Broads National Park, UK, using the 'Regional Impact Simulator'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, I. P.

    2007-12-01

    The Broads National Park, located in the east of England is the UK's only wetland National Park. Located in a low-lying area of intensive arable agriculture in the driest part of England, it faces many challenges. The 'Regional Impact Simulator' is a user friendly software tool designed to allow UK stakeholders to perform regional integrated assessments of the effects of socio-economic and/or climate change on important sectors and resources. This includes assessment of agriculture, water resources, biodiversity and coastal and river flooding. The development of this regional tool arose from the need to further develop the methods applied in the first local to regional integrated assessment in the UK, which was limited by very long run times, a limited number of simulations, incomplete linkages between models and no allowance for scenario uncertainty. Using the 'Regional Impact Simulator' for a range of socio-economic and emissions scenarios for the 2050s, The Broads in will face a diverse range of challenges related to: 1) Changes in coastal and fluvial flood risk - increased sea level and fluvial flows will increase flood risk for current flood defences; 2) Changing agricultural practices, associated with changing farmer responses to policy, will affect nutrient losses and habitats 3) Changes in water abstraction and discharge - irrigation demand will increase as water resources decrease. However future water availability is a consequence of both societal and policy priorities towards abstraction, and the changing patterns of urbanization and water usage; 4) Changes in habitats especially coastal habitats - saltmarsh will tend to be lost due to sea level rise, although managed realignment may increase stocks at the expense of coastal grazing marshes Socio-economic changes can be as (if not more) important than direct climate change-induced impacts, but the impacts of these changes depend on the choices society makes (e.g. flood defence policy; water demand

  13. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G.; Terando, Adam; Dunn, Robert R.; Frank, Steven D.

    2014-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  14. Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngsteadt, Elsa; Dale, Adam G; Terando, Adam J; Dunn, Robert R; Frank, Steven D

    2015-01-01

    Cities experience elevated temperature, CO2 , and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long-term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present-day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural-forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.

  15. Simulated annual changes in plant functional types and their responses to climate change on the northern Tibetan Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuo, Lan; Zhang, Yongxin; Piao, Shilong; Gao, Yanhong

    2016-06-01

    Changes in plant functional types (PFTs) have important implications for both climate and water resources. Still, little is known about whether and how PFTs have changed over the past decades on the northern Tibetan Plateau (NTP) where several of the top largest rivers in the world are originated. Also, the relative importance of atmospheric conditions vs. soil physical conditions in affecting PFTs is unknown on the NTP. In this study, we used the improved Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to investigate PFT changes through examining the changes in foliar projective coverages (FPCs) during 1957-2009 and their responses to changes in root zone soil temperature, soil moisture, air temperature, precipitation and CO2 concentrations. The results show spatially heterogeneous changes in FPCs across the NTP during 1957-2009, with 34 % (13 %) of the region showing increasing (decreasing) trends. Dominant drivers responsible for the observed FPC changes vary with regions and vegetation types, but overall, precipitation is the major factor in determining FPC changes on the NTP with positive impacts. Soil temperature increase exhibits small but negative impacts on FPCs. Different responses of individual FPCs to regionally varying climate change result in spatially heterogeneous patterns of vegetation changes on the NTP. The implication of the study is that fresh water resources in one of the world's largest and most important headwater basins and the onset and intensity of Asian monsoon circulations could be affected because of the changes in FPCs on the NTP.

  16. A Numerical Simulation Study of Impacts of Historical Land-Use Changes on the Regional Climate in China Since 1700

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Qiaoping; DING Yihui; DONG Wenjie

    2007-01-01

    By using the improved regional climate model (BCC_RegCM1.0), a series of modeling experiments are undertaken to investigate the impacts of historical land-use changes (LUCs) on the regional climate in China.Simulations are conducted for 2 years using estimated land-use for 1700, 1800, 1900, 1950, and 1990. The conversion of land cover in these periods was extensive over China, where large areas were altered from forests to either grass or crops, or from grasslands to crops. Results show that, since 1700, historical LUCs have significant effects on regional climate change, with rainfall increasing in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, Northwest China, and Northeast China, but decreasing by different degrees in other regions. The air temperature shows significant warming over large areas in recent hundred years,especially from 1950 to 1990, which is consistent with the warming caused by increasing greenhouse gases.On the other hand, historical LUCs have obvious effects on mean circulation, with the East Asian winter and summer monsoonal flows becoming more intensive, which is mainly attributed to the amplified temperature difference between ocean and land due to vegetation change. Thus, it would be given more attention to the impacts of LUCs on regional climate change.

  17. Climate Change in Prehistory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burroughs, William James

    2005-06-01

    How did humankind deal with the extreme challenges of the last Ice Age? How have the relatively benign post-Ice Age conditions affected the evolution and spread of humanity across the globe? By setting our genetic history in the context of climate change during prehistory, the origin of many features of our modern world are identified and presented in this illuminating book. It reviews the aspects of our physiology and intellectual development that have been influenced by climatic factors, and how features of our lives - diet, language and the domestication of animals - are also the product of the climate in which we evolved. In short: climate change in prehistory has in many ways made us what we are today. Climate Change in Prehistory weaves together studies of the climate with anthropological, archaeological and historical studies, and will fascinate all those interested in the effects of climate on human development and history.

  18. Biological Interactions and Simulated Climate Change Modulates the Ecophysiological Performance of Colobanthus quitensis in the Antarctic Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres-Díaz, Cristian; Gallardo-Cerda, Jorge; Lavin, Paris; Oses, Rómulo; Carrasco-Urra, Fernando; Atala, Cristian; Acuña-Rodríguez, Ian S.; Convey, Peter; Molina-Montenegro, Marco A.

    2016-01-01

    Most climate and environmental change models predict significant increases in temperature and precipitation by the end of the 21st Century, for which the current functional output of certain symbioses may also be altered. In this context we address the following questions: 1) How the expected changes in abiotic factors (temperature, and water) differentially affect the ecophysiological performance of the plant Colobanthus quitensis? and 2) Will this environmental change indirectly affect C. quitensis photochemical performance and biomass accumulation by modifying its association with fungal endophytes? Plants of C. quitensis from King George Island in the South Shetland archipelago (62°09′ S), and Lagotellerie Island in the Antarctic Peninsula (65°53′ S) were put under simulated abiotic conditions in growth chambers following predictive models of global climate change (GCC). The indirect effect of GCC on the interaction between C. quitensis and fungal endophytes was assessed in a field experiment carried out in the Antarctica, in which we eliminated endophytes under contemporary conditions and applied experimental watering to simulate increased precipitation input. We measured four proxies of plant performance. First, we found that warming (+W) significantly increased plant performance, however its effect tended to be less than watering (+W) and combined warming and watering (+T°+W). Second, the presence of fungal endophytes improved plant performance, and its effect was significantly decreased under experimental watering. Our results indicate that both biotic and abiotic factors affect ecophysiological performance, and the directions of these influences will change with climate change. Our findings provide valuable information that will help to predict future population spread and evolution through using ecological niche models under different climatic scenarios. PMID:27776181

  19. Climate Change and Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chinowsky, P.; Arndt, Channing

    2012-01-01

    Decision-makers who are responsible for determining when and where infrastructure should be developed and/or enhanced are facing a new challenge with the emerging topic of climate change. The paper introduces a stressor–response methodology where engineering-based models are used as a basis...... four climate projection scenarios, the paper details how climate change response decisions may cost the Mozambican government in terms of maintenance costs and long-term roadstock inventory reduction. Through this approach the paper details how a 14% reduction in inventory loss can be achieved through...... the adoption of a proactive, design standard evolution approach to climate change....

  20. Simulated Changes in Northwest U.S. Climate in Response to Amazon Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numerical models have long predicted that the deforestation of the Amazon would lead to large regional changes in precipitation and temperature, but the extratropical effects of deforestation have been a matter of controversy. This paper investigates the simulated impacts of defo...

  1. Climate Change and Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    expansion of large hydropower and reservoir construction can increase social resilience through associated economic development . However, the same...of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences of climate change, Vietnam is highly likely to experience a variety of negative...iii ABSTRACT Climate Change and Vietnam As one of the most vulnerable countries globally to the consequences

  2. Climate Change Crunch Time

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xie Zhenhua

    2011-01-01

    CLIMATE change is a severe challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and thus the Chinese Government always attaches great importance to the problem.Actively dealing with climate change is China's important strategic policy in its social and economic development.China will make a positive contribution to the world in this regard.

  3. A Collaborative Proposal: Simulating and Understanding Abrupt Climate-Ecosystem Changes During Holocene with NCAR-CCSM3.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhengyu Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner

    2013-02-01

    We have made significant progress in our proposed work in the last 4 years (3 years plus 1 year of no cost extension). In anticipation of the next phase of study, we have spent time on the abrupt changes since the last glacial maximum. First, we have performed further model-data comparison based on our baseline TRACE-21 simulation and made important progress towards the understanding of several major climate transitions. Second, we have made a significant effort in processing the model output of TRACE-21 and have put this output on a website for access by the community. Third, we have completed many additional sensitivity experiments. In addition, we have organized synthesis workshops to facilitate and promote transient model-data comparison for the international community. Finally, we have identified new areas of interest for Holocene climate changes.

  4. Simulating the Effect of Climate Change on Vegetation Zone Distribution on the Loess Plateau, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guoqing Li

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available A risk assessment of vegetation zone responses to climate change was conducted using the classical Holdridge life zone model on the Loess Plateau of Northwest China. The results show that there are currently ten vegetation zones occurring on the Loess Plateau (1950–2000, including alvar desert, alpine wet tundra, alpine rain tundra, boreal moist forest, boreal wet forest, cool temperate desert, cool temperate desert scrub, cool temperate steppe, cool temperate moist forest, warm temperate desert scrub, warm temperate thorn steppe, and warm temperate dry forest. Seventy years later (2070S, the alvar desert, the alpine wet tundra and the cool temperate desert will disappear, while warm temperate desert scrub and warm temperate thorn steppe will emerge. The area proportion of warm temperate dry forest will expand from 12.2% to 22.8%–37.2%, while that of cool temperate moist forest will decrease from 18.5% to 6.9%–9.5%. The area proportion of cool temperate steppe will decrease from 51.8% to 34.5%–51.6%. Our results suggest that future climate change will be conducive to the growth and expansion of forest zones on the Loess Plateau, which can provide valuable reference information for regional vegetation restoration planning and adaptive strategies in this region.

  5. Simulated climate change impact on summer dissolved organic carbon release from peat and surface vegetation: implications for drinking water treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritson, Jonathan P; Bell, Michael; Graham, Nigel J D; Templeton, Michael R; Brazier, Richard E; Verhoef, Anne; Freeman, Chris; Clark, Joanna M

    2014-12-15

    Uncertainty regarding changes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) quantity and quality has created interest in managing peatlands for their ecosystem services such as drinking water provision. The evidence base for such interventions is, however, sometimes contradictory. We performed a laboratory climate manipulation using a factorial design on two dominant peatland vegetation types (Calluna vulgaris and Sphagnum Spp.) and a peat soil collected from a drinking water catchment in Exmoor National Park, UK. Temperature and rainfall were set to represent baseline and future conditions under the UKCP09 2080s high emissions scenario for July and August. DOC leachate then underwent standard water treatment of coagulation/flocculation before chlorination. C. vulgaris leached more DOC than Sphagnum Spp. (7.17 versus 3.00 mg g(-1)) with higher specific ultraviolet (SUVA) values and a greater sensitivity to climate, leaching more DOC under simulated future conditions. The peat soil leached less DOC (0.37 mg g(-1)) than the vegetation and was less sensitive to climate. Differences in coagulation removal efficiency between the DOC sources appears to be driven by relative solubilisation of protein-like DOC, observed through the fluorescence peak C/T. Post-coagulation only differences between vegetation types were detected for the regulated disinfection by-products (DBPs), suggesting climate change influence at this scale can be removed via coagulation. Our results suggest current biodiversity restoration programmes to encourage Sphagnum Spp. will result in lower DOC concentrations and SUVA values, particularly with warmer and drier summers.

  6. Soil erosion under climate change in Great Britain: long-term simulations using high-resolution regional models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampalini, Rossano; Kendon, Elizabeth; Constantine, José Antonio; Schindewolf, Marcus; Hall, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Twenty-first century climate change simulations for Great Britain reveal an increase in heavy precipitation that may lead to widespread soil loss and reduced soil carbon stores by increasing the likelihood of surface runoff. We find the quality and resolution of the simulated rainfall used to drive soil loss variation can widely influence the results. Hourly high definition rainfall simulations from a 1.5km resolution regional climate model are used to examine the soil erosion response in two UK catchments. The catchments have different sensitivity to soil erosion. "Rother" in West Sussex, England, reports some of the most erosive events that have been observed during the last 50 years in the UK. "Conwy" in North Wales, is resilient to soil erosion because of the abundant natural vegetation cover and very limited agricultural practises. We modelled with Erosion3D to check variations in soil erosion as influenced by climate variations for the periods 1996-2009 and 2086-2099. Our results indicate the Rother catchment is the most erosive, while the Conwy catchment is confirmed as the more resilient to soil erosion. The values of the reference-base period are consistent with the values of those locally observed in the previous decades. A soil erosion comparison for the two periods shows an increasing of sediment production (off-site erosion) for the end of the century at about 27% in the Rother catchment and about 50% for the Conwy catchment. The results, thanks to high-definition rainfall predictions, throw some light on the effect of climatic change effects in Great Britain.

  7. On the importance of including vegetation dynamics in hydrological simulation under climate change: A case study in the Jing River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Q.; Li, Z.; Ishidaira, H.

    2012-04-01

    The role of catchment vegetation within the hydrological cycle and its impact on hydrological processes has long been a topic of research within hydrology. A key element in quantifying the hydrological impact of climate change is the relationship between catchment vegetation and runoff, which continues to be a productive area of research within hydrology. However, the parameterization of vegetation composition and distribution as a dynamic component is insufficient in stand-alone hydrological modeling studies. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are able to simulate transient structural changes in major vegetation types but do not simulate runoff generation reliably. A biosphere hydrological model (LPJH) coupling a prominent DGVM (Lund-Postdam-Jena model referred to as LPJ) with a stand-alone hydrological model (HYMOD) may simulate both vegetation dynamics and runoff generation reasonably. This study applies the LPJH model to the Jing River basin, a tributary of the Yellow River, with the objective of analyzing the role of vegetation in the hydrological processes at this semi-arid basin and evaluating the impact of vegetation change on the hydrological processes under climate change. The results show that the LPJH model gives reasonable hydrological simulation in terms of runoff. It is shown that changing climate conditions in terms of co2, temperature, precipitation, and the combination changes of these variables would result in actual evapotranspiration and runoff changes. Theses changes are mainly attributable to changes in transpiration driven by vegetation dynamics, which are not simulated in stand-alone hydrological models. Therefore, the composition and distribution of vegetation are of fundamental importance for evapotranspiration and runoff generation, especially under climate change. The percent of impact from each climate variable is also explored by using the LPJH model, which gives an overall view of climate change impact on hydrological processes

  8. Communities under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nogues, David Bravo; Rahbek, Carsten

    2011-01-01

    The distribution of species on Earth and the interactions among them are tightly linked to historical and contemporary climate, so that global climate change will transform the world in which we live. Biological models can now credibly link recent decadal trends in field data to climate change......, but predicting future impacts on biological communities is a major challenge. Attempts to move beyond general macroecological predictions of climate change impact on one hand, and observations from specific, local-scale cases, small-scale experiments, or studies of a few species on the other, raise a plethora...... of unanswered questions. On page 1124 of this issue, Harley (1) reports results that cast new light on how biodiversity, across different trophic levels, responds to climate change....

  9. Antarctic 20th Century Accumulation Changes Based on Regional Climate Model Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klaus Dethloff

    2010-01-01

    investigated on the basis of ERA-40 data and HIRHAM simulations. It is shown that the regional accumulation changes are largely driven by changes in the transient activity around the Antarctic coasts due to the varying AAO phases. During positive AAO, more transient pressure systems travelling towards the continent, and Western Antarctica and parts of South-Eastern Antarctica gain more precipitation and mass. Over central Antarctica the prevailing anticyclone causes a strengthening of polar desertification connected with a reduced surface mass balance in the northern part of East Antarctica.

  10. MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the LGM.Ⅰ: Influence of CO2 and Earth Orbit Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU yu; HE Jinhai; LI Weiliang; CHEN Longxun

    2008-01-01

    Using a regional climate model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate the relative Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate response to different mechanisms over China. Model simulations of the present day (PD) climate and the LGM climate change are in good agreement with the observation data and geological records, especially in the simulation of precipitation change. Under the PD and LGM climate, changes of earth orbital parameters have a small influence on the annual mean temperature over China.However, the magnitude of the effect shows a seasonal pattern, with a significant response in winter. Thus,this influence cannot be neglected. During the LGM, CO2 concentration reached its lowest point to 200 ppmv. This results in a temperature decrease over China. The influences of CO2 concentration on climate show seasonal and regional patterns as well, with a significant influence in winter. On the contrary, CO2concentration has less impact in summer season. In some cases, temperature even increases with decreasing in CO2 concentration. This temperature increase is the outcome of decrease in cloud amount; hence increase the solar radiation that reached the earth's surface. This result suggests that cloud amount plays a very important role in climate change and could direct the response patterns of some climate variables such as temperature during certain periods and over certain regions. In the Tibetan Plateau, the temperature responses to changes of the above two factors are generally weaker than those in other regions because the cloud amount in this area is generally more than in the other areas. Relative to the current climate, changes in orbital parameters have less impact on the LGM climate than changes in CO2 concentration. However,both factors have rather less contributions to the climate change in the LGM. About 3%-10% changes in the annual mean temperature are

  11. Water repellency in an Alpine forest soil and its impact on hydraulic characteristics under simulated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwen, Andreas; Zimmermann, Michael; Lamparter, Axel; Woche, Susanne; Bachmann, Jörg

    2014-05-01

    The climate of Alpine environments is expected to change dramatically as a consequence of global climate change. In this ecologically sensitive environment, prolonged dry periods and an increased occurence of extreme rainfall events is forecasted by many climate change models. On the other hand, soil water repellency (SWR) is known to affect hydraulic processes in soils, particularly in acidic forest soils and as a consequence of prolonged dry periods. By changing the soil surface properties, SWR also changes the hydraulically effective properties of soils. The quantification of the spatial occurence and degree of hydrophobicity is a crucial prerequirement for ecological and hydrological impact assessment and developing new models. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to quantify soil water repellency in an Alpine forest with respect to its spatial variability and affected by different simulated climatic regimes. The study was accomplished in the Rosalian mountains, some 60 km south of Vienna, Austria. The vegetation was a mature beech forest and the soil was a Podsolic Cambisol over weathered granitic rock debris. As parts of the experimental plot were covered by plastic roofs and artificially irrigated, three different treatments were tested: Compared to the natural precipitation (control), the irrigation amount was reduced with two drought degrees (moderate and extreme). Within a small grid, 9 samples were taken per treatment in two depths (surface and 0.10 m). The contact angle was determined with the modified sessile drop method. Additionally, total and organic carbon contents and the hydraulic soil properties were quantified. Infiltration experiments were performed with a tension infiltrometer using water and ethanol. The results showed considerable water repellency with at least subcritical contact angles for all treatments. Contact angles increased to above 90 degree at the moderate and extreme drought treatments. Differences between intrinsic

  12. Cuba confronts climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Gisela; Clark, Ismael

    2015-04-01

    Among environmental problems, climate change presents the greatest challenges to developing countries, especially island nations. Changes in climate and the resulting effects on human health call for examination of the interactions between environmental and social factors. Important in Cuba's case are soil conditions, food availability, disease burden, ecological changes, extreme weather events, water quality and rising sea levels, all in conjunction with a range of social, cultural, economic and demographic conditions.

  13. Climate change and skin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balato, N; Ayala, F; Megna, M; Balato, A; Patruno, C

    2013-02-01

    Global climate appears to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Climate change can be caused by several factors that include variations in solar radiation received by earth, oceanic processes (such as oceanic circulation), plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions, as well as human-induced alterations of the natural world. Many human activities, such as the use of fossil fuel and the consequent accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, land consumption, deforestation, industrial processes, as well as some agriculture practices are contributing to global climate change. Indeed, many authors have reported on the current trend towards global warming (average surface temperature has augmented by 0.6 °C over the past 100 years), decreased precipitation, atmospheric humidity changes, and global rise in extreme climatic events. The magnitude and cause of these changes and their impact on human activity have become important matters of debate worldwide, representing climate change as one of the greatest challenges of the modern age. Although many articles have been written based on observations and various predictive models of how climate change could affect social, economic and health systems, only few studies exist about the effects of this change on skin physiology and diseases. However, the skin is the most exposed organ to environment; therefore, cutaneous diseases are inclined to have a high sensitivity to climate. For example, global warming, deforestation and changes in precipitation have been linked to variations in the geographical distribution of vectors of some infectious diseases (leishmaniasis, lyme disease, etc) by changing their spread, whereas warm and humid environment can also encourage the colonization of the skin by bacteria and fungi. The present review focuses on the wide and complex relationship between climate change and dermatology, showing the numerous factors that are contributing to modify the incidence and the clinical pattern of many

  14. Olivine and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuiling, R.D.

    2012-01-01

    The greenhouse effect, thanks mainly to the water vapor in our atmosphere, has created a livable climate on Earth. Climate change, however, may potentially have dire consequences. It is generally assumed that the rise in CO2 levels in the atmosphere is the main culprit, although several other greenh

  15. Data base of climatic change simulations for the impact studies. Final report; Base de donnees des simulations de changement climatique a l'usage des etudes d'impact. Rapport final

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Polcher, J.; Leboucher, V.; Planton, S.; Valcke, S

    2003-12-15

    Data used for the study of the climatic change impact on the environment and the society come from climate models and are affected by uncertainties. It is necessary to quantify the resulting errors in the models. The data base provides a comparison of simulations of climatic change in France. The final report presents the project methodology. Three projects using the distributed simulations are also presented. (A.L.B.)

  16. Simulating changes in ecosystem structure and composition in response to climate change: a case study focused on tropical nitrogen-fixing trees (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medvigy, D.; Levy, J.; Xu, X.; Batterman, S. A.; Hedin, L.

    2013-12-01

    Ecosystems, by definition, involve a community of organisms. These communities generally exhibit heterogeneity in their structure and composition as a result of local variations in climate, soil, topography, disturbance history, and other factors. Climate-driven shifts in ecosystems will likely include an internal re-organization of community structure and composition and as well as the introduction of novel species. In terms of vegetation, this ecosystem heterogeneity can occur at relatively small scales, sometimes of the order of tens of meters or even less. Because this heterogeneous landscape generally has a variable and nonlinear response to environmental perturbations, it is necessary to carefully aggregate the local competitive dynamics between individual plants to the large scales of tens or hundreds of kilometers represented in climate models. Accomplishing this aggregation in a computationally efficient way has proven to be an extremely challenging task. To meet this challenge, the Ecosystem Demography 2 (ED2) model statistically characterizes a distribution of local resource environments, and then simulates the competition between individuals of different sizes and species (or functional groupings). Within this framework, it is possible to explicitly simulate the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and composition, including both internal re-organization and the introduction of novel species or functional groups. This presentation will include several illustrative applications of the evolution of ecosystem structure and composition under climate change. One application pertains to the role of nitrogen-fixing species in tropical forests. Will increasing CO2 concentrations increase the demand for nutrients and perhaps give a competitive edge to nitrogen-fixing species? Will potentially warmer and drier conditions make some tropical forests more water-limited, reducing the demand for nitrogen, thereby giving a competitive advantage to non

  17. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... in the future, then there is also moral reason to address these harms if they materialize now. We argue that these principles are applicable to climate change, and that given the commitment of wealthy countries to a "common but differentiated responsibility," they lead to a commitment to address or compensate...

  18. Population and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian C.; Landis MacKellar, F.; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2000-11-01

    Population and Climate Change provides the first systematic in-depth treatment of links between two major themes of the 21st century: population growth (and associated demographic trends such as aging) and climate change. It is written by a multidisciplinary team of authors from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis who integrate both natural science and social science perspectives in a way that is comprehensible to members of both communities. The book will be of primary interest to researchers in the fields of climate change, demography, and economics. It will also be useful to policy-makers and NGOs dealing with issues of population dynamics and climate change, and to teachers and students in courses such as environmental studies, demography, climatology, economics, earth systems science, and international relations.

  19. Criminality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Rob

    2016-08-01

    The impacts of climate change imply a reconceptualization of environment-related criminality. Criminology can offer insight into the definitions and dynamics of this behaviour, and outline potential areas of redress.

  20. Climate change and compensation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Karsten Klint; Flanagan, Tine Bech

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a case for compensation of actual harm from climate change in the poorest countries. First, it is shown that climate change threatens to reverse the fight to eradicate poverty. Secondly, it is shown how the problems raised in the literature for compensation to some extent...... are based on misconceptions and do not apply to compensation of present actual harm. Finally, two arguments are presented to the effect that, in so far as developed countries accept a major commitment to mitigate climate change, they should also accept a commitment to address or compensate actual harm from...... climate change. The first argument appeals to the principle that if it is an injustice to cause risk of incurring harm in the future, then it is also an injustice to cause a similar harm now. The second argument appeals to the principle that if there is moral reason to reduce the risk of specific harms...

  1. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  2. Climate change and cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Satterthwaite, David

    2006-10-15

    What is done, or not done, in cities in relation to climate change over the next 5-10 years will affect hundreds of millions of people, because their lives and livelihoods are at risk from global warming. What is done in cities will also have a major influence on whether the escalating risks for the whole planet will be reduced or eliminated. Climate change needs to be considered in all development plans and investments - local, regional, national and international. Urban growth must be made more climate-resilient and help reduce, rather than increase, greenhouse gas emissions. This will not be done by the market; it can only be done by governments.

  3. Modeling the Effect of Climate Change on Large Fire Size, Counts, and Intensities Using the Large Fire Simulator (FSim)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riley, K. L.; Haas, J. R.; Finney, M.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in climate can be expected to cause changes in wildfire activity due to a combination of shifts in weather (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed and direction) and vegetation. Changes in vegetation could include type conversions, altered forest structure, and shifts in species composition, the effects of which could be mitigated or exacerbated by management activities. Further, changes in suppression response and effectiveness may alter potential wildfire activity, as well as the consequences of wildfire. Feedbacks among these factors are extremely complex and uncertain. The ability to anticipate changes driven by fire weather (largely outside of human control) can lead to development of fire and fuel management strategies aimed at mitigating current and future risk. Therefore, in this study we focus on isolating the effects of climate-induced changes in weather on wildfire activity. Specifically, we investigated the effect of changes in weather on fire activity in the Canadian Rockies ecoregion, which encompasses Glacier National Park and several large wilderness areas to the south. To model the ignition, growth, and containment of wildfires, we used the Large Fire Simulator (FSim), which we coupled with current and projected future climatic conditions. Weather streams were based on data from 14 downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 45 and 85 for the years 2040-2060. While all GCMs indicate increases in temperature for this area, which would be expected to exacerbate fire activity, precipitation predictions for the summer wildfire season are more variable, ranging from a decrease of approximately 50 mm to an increase of approximately 50 mm. Windspeeds are generally predicted to decrease, which would reduce rates of spread and fire intensity. The net effect of these weather changes on the size, number, and intensity

  4. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four Earth System models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period, 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g. whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially, when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  5. Climate change, forest management and nitrogen deposition influence on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in Russia: simulation modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komarov, Alexander; Kudeyarov, Valery; Shanin, Vladimir

    2014-05-01

    Russian land ecosystems occupy more than 1/9th global land area. Therefore its carbon budget is an essential contribution to the global carbon budget. The first rough estimate of carbon balance on Russian territory was made on comparison data on total soil respiration (Kudeyarov et. al., 1995) and NPP calculated on data on biological productivity of different ecosystems over Russia. The carbon balance was evaluated as a C-sink. Further estimates of Russian C budget by V.Kudeyarov et al., (2007) and I.Kurganova et al., (2010) were more correct and included soil microbial flux, and non-respiratory processes: fossil fuel, agriculture, forest fires and post-fire emissions, insect damage, etc. According to estimates the total C-sink of Russian territory for early nineties was about -0.8-1.0 Pg C per year. The later IIASA account developed by A.Shvidenko et al. (2010) has provided current estimates of C fluxes and storages in Russia and showed that its terrestrial ecosystems served as a net carbon sink of -0.5-0.7 PgC yr-1 during the last decade. Taking into account big uncertainties of determination of carbon balance constituents one can say that results by IIASA and our Institute are rather close. Resulting effect of two processes (sequestration and CO2 emission) can be analysed by mathematical modelling only. Corresponding system of models of organic matter dynamics in forest ecosystems EFIMOD was developed in our Institute last decade and applied in Russia and other countries for evaluation of impacts of climate changes, forest management and forest fires. The comparative simulations of carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the mixed forest ecosystems of Central Russia from different climatic zones and site conditions have been made. Three large forest areas with the total square of about 17,000 km2 distinct in environmental conditions were chosen. We used the data of the forest inventory for model initialization. Four simulation scenarios (without disturbances, with

  6. Poverty and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Franco, E.; Fuckar, N. S.; Kalmbach, E. R.; Kayatta, E.; Lankester, K.; Rothschild, R. E.; Sarma, A.; Wall, M. L.

    2008-05-01

    The poor are disproportionately vulnerable to environmental change because they have the least amount of resources with which to adapt, and they live in areas (e.g. flood plains, low-lying coastal areas, and marginal drylands) that are particularly vulnerable to the manifestations of climate change. By quantifying the various environmental, economic, and social factors that can contribute to poverty, we identify populations that are most vulnerable to poverty and poverty traps due to environmental change. We define vulnerability as consisting of risk (probability of event and exposed elements), resiliency, and capacity to respond. Resiliency captures the social system's ability to absorb a natural disaster while retaining the same basic structure, organization, and ways of functioning, as well as its general capacity to adapt to stress and change. Capacity to respond is a surrogate for technical skills, institutional capabilities, and efficacy within countries and their economies. We use a "climate change multiplier" to account for possible increases in the frequency and severity of natural events due to climate change. Through various analytical methods, we quantify the social, political, economic, and environmental factors that contribute to poverty or poverty traps. These data sets are then used to determine vulnerability through raster multiplication in geospatial analysis. The vulnerability of a particular location to climate change is then mapped, with areas of high vulnerability clearly delineated. The success of this methodology indicates that it is indeed possible to quantify the effects of climate change on global vulnerability to natural disasters, and can be used as a mechanism to identify areas where proactive measures, such as improving adaptation or capacity to respond, can reduce the humanitarian and economic impacts of climate change.

  7. Greenland climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Swingedouw, D.; Landais, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate archives available from deep-sea and marine shelf sediments, glaciers, lakes and ice cores in and around Greenland allow us to place the current trends in regional climate, ice sheet dynamics, and land surface changes in a broader perspective. We show that during the last decade (2000s...... regional climate and ice sheet dynamics. The magnitude and rate of future changes in Greenland temperature, in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, may be faster than any past abrupt events occurring under interglacial conditions. Projections indicate that within one century Greenland may......), atmospheric and sea-surface temperatures are reaching levels last encountered millennia ago when northern high latitude summer insolation was higher due to a different orbital configuration. Concurrently, records from lake sediments in southern Greenland document major environmental and climatic conditions...

  8. Topologies of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is quickly becoming a ubiquitous socionatural reality, mediating extremes of sociospatial scale from the bodily to the planetary. Although environmentalism invites us to ‘think globally and act locally', the meaning of these scalar designations remains ambiguous. This paper explores...... the topological presuppositions of social theory in the context of global climate change, asking how carbon emissions ‘translate' into various sociomaterial forms. Staging a meeting between Tim Ingold's phenomenology of globes and spheres and the social topologies of actor-network theory (ANT), the paper advances...... a ‘relational-scalar' analytics of spatial practices, technoscience, and power. As technoscience gradually constructs a networked global climate, this ‘grey box' comes to circulate within fluid social spaces, taking on new shades as it hybridizes knowledges, symbols, and practices. Global climates thus come...

  9. Simulation climate change. A field manipulation study of polar microarthdropod community response to global warming

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kennedy, A.D. (British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Cambridge (United Kingdom))

    1994-01-01

    Passive cloches were deployed at three altitudinally distinct sites on Signy Island, maritime Antarctica, to investigate the effect of ameliorated thermal environment upon fellfield microarthropod communities. Temperature was monitored at 1.5 m height, at ground surface level, and at 5 cm depth in cloche and control plots. During summer (December-march), cloches elevated monthly mean temperatures by up to 2.46 deg. C at the soil surface and 2.20 deg. C at 5 cm depth. Integrated air temperatures over consecutive 10 d periods were up to 4.65 deg. C warmer in cloches than controls. During winter (April-November), snow cover of the fellfield sites buffered temperature variation and reduced the treatment effect. After eight years of these manipulations, sampling of the upper 50 mm of soil revealed consistently greater microarthropod populations within cloches than in controls (treatment effect: p<0.05). Maximum difference occurred at high altitude where thermal amelioration was greatest (site effect: p<0.05). Cloche populations of the numerically dominant collembolan Cryptopygus antarcticus Willem contained an increased proportion of small (length<750 [mu]m) individuals. No species new to Signy Island were recorded. Relating these microarthropod populations to the ameliorated thermal environment suggests that Antarctic invertebrate communities may respond to global warming, as predicted by global circulation models, with an increase in abundance with little increase in diversity. However, this response could be indirect, the intermediate controlling factor being the percentage cover of the soil surface by vegetation, itself a function of climate change. (au) (49 refs.)

  10. Impact of climate change on soil thermal and moisture regimes in Serbia: An analysis with data from regional climate simulations under SRES-A1B.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihailović, D T; Drešković, N; Arsenić, I; Ćirić, V; Djurdjević, V; Mimić, G; Pap, I; Balaž, I

    2016-11-15

    We considered temporal and spatial variations to the thermal and moisture regimes of the most common RSGs (Reference Soil Groups) in Serbia under the A1B scenario for the 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods, with respect to the 1961-1990 period. We utilized dynamically downscaled global climate simulations from the ECHAM5 model using the coupled regional climate model EBU-POM (Eta Belgrade University-Princeton Ocean Model). We analysed the soil temperature and moisture time series using simple statistics and a Kolmogorov complexity (KC) analysis. The corresponding metrics were calculated for 150 sites. In the future, warmer and drier regimes can be expected for all RSGs in Serbia. The calculated soil temperature and moisture variations include increases in the mean annual soil temperature (up to 3.8°C) and decreases in the mean annual soil moisture (up to 11.3%). Based on the KC values, the soils in Serbia are classified with respect to climate change impacts as (1) less sensitive (Vertisols, Umbrisols and Dystric Cambisols) or (2) more sensitive (Chernozems, Eutric Cambisols and Planosols).

  11. Evaporation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the influence of climate change on evaporation is discussed. The emphasis is on open water evaporation. Three methods for calculating evaporation are compared considering only changes in temperature and factors directly dependent on temperature. The Penman-method is used to investiga

  12. Climate Change: Good for Us?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Jackie

    2000-01-01

    Presents an activity with the objective of encouraging students to think about the effects of climate change. Explains background information on dependence to climate and discuses whether climate change is important. Provides information for the activity, extensions, and evaluation. (YDS)

  13. Comparison of Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change Simulated by WASMOD and HBV Models in Different Climatic Zones China, Ethiopia, and Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Eregno, Fasil Ejigu

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Recent advances in hydrological impact studies points that the response of specific catchments to climate change scenario using a single model approach is questionable. Based on this hypothesis, this study was aimed at investigating the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of river basins in three different climatic zones (China, Ethiopia and Norway) using WASMOD and HBV hydrological models. Specifically the objectives include (i) examining and comparing the hydrolo...

  14. Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

    2011-01-01

    The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr-1 during the last half of the 21st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr-1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr-1 by the end of the 21st century with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO2 concentration will have little

  15. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  16. Assessment of Potential Yield andClimate Change Sensitivity of Peanut Crop in Cagayan Valley, Philippines using DSSAT Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balderama, O. F.

    2013-12-01

    Peanut is a major upland crop in Cagayan Valley and a leguminous crop that requires less water and therefore, considered an important crop in improving productivity of upland and rainfed areas. However, little information is available on the potential productivity of the crop and analysis on the production constraints including climate change sensitivity. This study was aimed to determine yield potential and production constraints of peanut crop in Cagayan Valley through the use of Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) simulation modeling; analyze yield gaps between simulated and actual yield levels and to provide decision support to further optimize peanut production under climate change condition. Site of experiment for model calibration and validation was located on-station at Isabela State University, Echague, Isabela. Rainfall and other climatic variables were monitored using a HOBO weather station (Automatic Weather Station) which is strategically installed inside experimental zone.The inputs required to run the CSM model include information on soil and weather conditions, crop management practices and cultivar specific genetic coefficients. In the first step,a model calibration was conducted to determine the cultivar coefficients for certain peanut cultivar that are normally grown in Cagayan Valley. Crop growth and yield simulation modeling was undertaken using the Decision Support System for Agro-Technology Transfer (DSSAT) for small seeded peanut (Pn9). An evaluation of the CSM-CROPGRO-peanut model was performed with data sets from peanut experiment conducted from December 2011 to April 2012. The model was evaluated in the estimation of potential yield of peanut under rainfed condition and low-nitrogen application. Yield potential for peanut limited only by temperature and solar radiation and no-water and nutrient stress, ranged from 3274 to 4805 kg per hectare for six planting dates (October 1, October 15, November 1, November 15

  17. Simulated dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) for outdoor livestock feeding coefficients driven by climate change scenarios in México

    OpenAIRE

    A. I. MONTERROSO RIVAS; J. D. GÓMEZ DÍAZ; M. L. TOLEDO MEDRANO; J. A. TINOCO RUEDA; C. CONDE ÁLVAREZ; C. GAY GARCÍA

    2011-01-01

    In this paper the concept of Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is used as a way to estimate the capacity of the ecosystem to produce dry matter which may be available for livestock to meet the forage requirements. The method allows the simulation of the possible impact on NPP and dry matter (DM), under climate change conditions observable for the country in a given time horizon. The concept was also used for current coefficients of rangeland and under current climate change scenarios, thus allow...

  18. Climate change matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

    2014-04-01

    One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

  19. Gender differences in Salix myrsinifolia at the pre-reproductive stage are little affected by simulated climatic change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nybakken, L.; Julkunen-Tiitto, R. [Univ. of Eastern Finland. Dept. of Biology, Joensuu (Finland)

    2013-04-15

    Females of dioecious species are known often to prioritize defense, while males grow faster. As climatic change is known to influence both growth and defense in plants, it would be important to know whether it affects the sexes of dioecious species differently. This could have impacts on future sex ratios in nature. We grew four clones of each sex of Salix myrsinifolia in greenhouse chambers under ambient conditions, enhanced temperature, enhanced CO{sub 2} or enhanced temperature? + enhanced CO{sub 2}. The females had the greatest growth and also the highest levels of phenolic compounds in twigs, while in leaves some compounds were higher in males, some in females. Enhanced CO{sub 2} increased growth equally in both sexes, while growth was not affected by elevated temperature. Phenolic compounds in twigs were, however, lowered under elevated temperature. The gender differences were not strongly affected by the simulated climatic changes, but the effects seen on some highly concentrated compounds may be important. We interpret the intensive growth at pre-reproductive phase as a strategy in females to get an initial advantage before later periods with fewer resources available for growth. (Author)

  20. Gender differences in Salix myrsinifolia at the pre-reproductive stage are little affected by simulated climatic change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nybakken, Line; Julkunen-Tiitto, Riitta

    2013-04-01

    Females of dioecious species are known often to prioritize defense, while males grow faster. As climatic change is known to influence both growth and defense in plants, it would be important to know whether it affects the sexes of dioecious species differently. This could have impacts on future sex ratios in nature. We grew four clones of each sex of Salix myrsinifolia in greenhouse chambers under ambient conditions, enhanced temperature, enhanced CO2 or enhanced temperature  +  enhanced CO2 . The females had the greatest growth and also the highest levels of phenolic compounds in twigs, while in leaves some compounds were higher in males, some in females. Enhanced CO2 increased growth equally in both sexes, while growth was not affected by elevated temperature. Phenolic compounds in twigs were, however, lowered under elevated temperature. The gender differences were not strongly affected by the simulated climatic changes, but the effects seen on some highly concentrated compounds may be important. We interpret the intensive growth at pre-reproductive phase as a strategy in females to get an initial advantage before later periods with fewer resources available for growth.

  1. Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Himalayan Headwater Watershed Snowmelt Hydrology: Discharge, Sediment Load, and Nutrient Shifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, R. P.; White, J. D.

    2010-12-01

    Due to retreat of glaciers and rapid population growth in associated watersheds, the Himalayas are important due to their potential for constraining water availability for a significant portion of the world’s population. Uncertainty exists in the derivation of water from the Himalayan headwaters due to shifts in meltwater derived from glaciers to transient snowpack under future climate change. Because hydrologic changes from headwater sources will also impact downstream reservoirs, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT 2005) to simulate hydrologic discharge, sediment yield, and nutrient loading from the Narayani River Basin Watershed. This watershed is located in central Nepal that covers 31,986 km2 area, has 50% of the elevation>3000m, and is a major headwater basin for the Ganges River. We calibrated the SWAT model for this basin with surprising accuracy where simulated monthly average supply rate of water from watershed was 1568 cms compared to the observed value of 1589 cms. In this calibration process, we found that the precipitation and temperature lapse rates and effective hydraulic conductivity in main channel alluvium were the most important factors influencing predicted discharge values. Analysis of input landcover data showed that 5% of the watershed area is covered by glaciers and contributes approximately 15% of the discharge rate, mostly during summer months. This is contrasted to snowmelt which contributes only 4% to discharge rate during early spring based on our simulations. Future climate scenarios predicted by general circulation models for 2050 which showed increased stream discharge of 4%, 5% and 2% compared to current low, medium and high emission scenarios respectively. Sediment yield also increased by 17%, 26% and 17% compared to current for each emission scenario. Nutrient concentrations, including nitrogen and phosphorus, showed decreases under low emission scenarios and increases under medium and high emission scenarios. Our

  2. Climate Change and Future World

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-01

    fresh water. Movements of migrants from northern Africa and the Middle-East are already a security problem for Europe . This phenomenon is likely to be...Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http://library.globalchange.gov/climate...06/2013. 21 U.S. Climate Change Science Program , Climate Literacy – The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences, 3. (http

  3. Nitrogen Discharge due to Climate Change and Land Cover Change

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Simulated model output for the figures in the associated publication. Data are SWAT model simulation results for different scenarios of land-use change and climate...

  4. Climate change and amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corn, P. S.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Amphibian life histories are exceedingly sensitive to temperature and precipitation, and there is good evidence that recent climate change has already resulted in a shift to breeding earlier in the year for some species. There are also suggestions that the recent increase in the occurrence of El Niño events has caused declines of anurans in Central America and is linked to elevated mortality of amphibian embryos in the northwestern United States. However, evidence linking amphibian declines in Central America to climate relies solely on correlations, and the mechanisms underlying the declines are not understood. Connections between embryo mortality and declines in abundance have not been demonstrated. Analyses of existing data have generally failed to find a link between climate and amphibian declines. It is likely, however, that future climate change will cause further declines of some amphibian species. Reduced soil moisture could reduce prey species and eliminate habitat. Reduced snowfall and increased summer evaporation could have dramatic effects on the duration or occurrence of seasonal wetlands, which are primary habitat for many species of amphibians. Climate change may be a relatively minor cause of current amphibian declines, but it may be the biggest future challenge to the persistence of many species

  5. Energy and Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-15

    Climate change, and more specifically the carbon emissions from energy production and use, is one of the more vexing problems facing society today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just completed its latest assessment on the state of the science of climate change, on the potential consequences related to this change, and on the mitigation steps that could be implemented beginning now, particularly in the energy sector. Few people now doubt that anthropogenic climate change is real or that steps must be taken to deal with it. The World Energy Council has long recognized this serious concern and that in its role as the world's leading international energy organization, it can address the concerns of how to provide adequate energy for human well-being while sustaining our overall quality of life. It has now performed and published 15 reports and working papers on this subject. This report examines what has worked and what is likely to work in the future in this regard and provides policymakers with a practical roadmap to a low-carbon future and the steps needed to achieve it.

  6. Simulating the potential effects of climate change in two Colorado basins and at two Colorado ski areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battaglin, W.; Hay, L.; Markstrom, S.

    2011-01-01

    The mountainous areas of Colorado are used for tourism and recreation, and they provide water storage and supply for municipalities, industries, and agriculture. Recent studies suggest that water supply and tourist industries such as skiing are at risk from climate change. In this study, a distributed-parameter watershed model, the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), is used to identify the potential effects of future climate on hydrologic conditions for two Colorado basins, the East River at Almont and the Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, and at the subbasin scale for two ski areas within those basins. Climate-change input files for PRMS were generated by modifying daily PRMS precipitation and temperature inputs with mean monthly climate-change fields of precipitation and temperature derived from five general circulation model (GCM) simulations using one current and three future carbon emission scenarios. All GCM simulations of mean daily minimum and maximum air temperature for the East and Yampa River basins indicate a relatively steady increase of up to several degrees Celsius from baseline conditions by 2094. GCM simulations of precipitation in the two basins indicate little change or trend in precipitation, but there is a large range associated with these projections. PRMS projections of basin mean daily streamflow vary by scenario but indicate a central tendency toward slight decreases, with a large range associated with these projections. Decreases in water content or changes in the spatial extent of snowpack in the East and Yampa River basins are important because of potential adverse effects on water supply and recreational activities. PRMS projections of each future scenario indicate a central tendency for decreases in basin mean snow-covered area and snowpack water equivalent, with the range in the projected decreases increasing with time. However, when examined on a monthly basis, the projected decreases are most dramatic during fall and

  7. Changes in Intense Rainfall Events over the Central United States in AOGCM-Driven Regional Climate Model Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, A. R.; Arritt, R. W.; Groisman, P. Y.

    2014-12-01

    We have evaluated trends in extreme precipitation frequency for the central United States (Groisman et al. 2012) using atmosphere-ocean global climate model (AOGCM) driven regional climate simulations. Nested regional climate model simulations were conducted using RegCM4.4 over the CORDEX-North America domain with 50 km grid spacing. Initial and lateral boundary conditions are taken from the HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M AOGCMs (for RCP8.5 emissions scenario) to simulate present and future climate (1951-2098). For each run, RegCM4 uses three different convection schemes: Emanuel scheme, Grell scheme, and Mixed scheme which uses the Emanuel scheme over water and Grell over land.Current findings show the regional climate simulations are of the same magnitude of average frequency for heavy ( 25.4-76.2 mm/day), and extreme (154.9+ mm/day) precipitation events while very heavy events (76.2+ mm/day) were less frequent by an order of magnitude. For current and recent past climate (1951-2005), frequency of precipitation events is similar in both HadGEM2-ES and GFDL-ESM2M AOGCM-driven regional climate simulations with most variation due to the convection scheme being used. Initial results seem to exhibit similar trends in the increase of frequency for each precipitation event as is seen in observations. In accordance with Groisman et al. (2012), preliminary findings also show months during the cold season had more frequent heavy events in comparison to very heavy and extreme events while months during the warm season had more frequent very heavy and extreme events in comparison to heavy events. Further analysis will better determine the correlation and accuracy of these regional climate simulations.

  8. Corporate Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    The American Chamber of Commerce, the People's Republic of China (AmCham-China) and the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai recently released "American Corporate Experience in a Changing China: Insights From AmCham Business Climate Surveys, 1999-2005." Excerpts of the report follow:

  9. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  10. Tackling Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Representatives from nearly 200 countries and regions have gathered in Durban,South Africa,for the 17th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the 7th session of the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol.The meeting is the follow-up conference to tacklin

  11. Learning Progressions & Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Joyce M.; de los Santos, Elizabeth X.; Anderson, Charles W.

    2015-01-01

    Our society is currently having serious debates about sources of energy and global climate change. But do students (and the public) have the requisite knowledge to engage these issues as informed citizenry? The learning-progression research summarized here indicates that only 10% of high school students typically have a level of understanding…

  12. DTU Climate Change Technologies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    During 2008 and 2009, DTU held a workshop series focusing on assessment of and adaption to climate changes as well as on mitigation of green house gasses. In the workshops, a total of 1500 scientists, government officials and business leaders have outlined scenarios for technology development...

  13. A Hierarchical Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Ringler, Todd; Collins, William D.; Taylor, Mark; Ashfaq, Moetasim

    2013-08-20

    Global climate models (GCMs) are the primary tools for predicting the evolution of the climate system. Through decades of development, GCMs have demonstrated useful skill in simulating climate at continental to global scales. However, large uncertainties remain in projecting climate change at regional scales, which limit our ability to inform decisions on climate change adaptation and mitigation. To bridge this gap, different modeling approaches including nested regional climate models (RCMs), global stretch-grid models, and global high-resolution atmospheric models have been used to provide regional climate simulations (Leung et al. 2003). In previous efforts to evaluate these approaches, isolating their relative merits was not possible because factors such as dynamical frameworks, physics parameterizations, and model resolutions were not systematically constrained. With advances in high performance computing, it is now feasible to run coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs at horizontal resolution comparable to what RCMs use today. Global models with local refinement using unstructured grids have become available for modeling regional climate (e.g., Rauscher et al. 2012; Ringler et al. 2013). While they offer opportunities to improve climate simulations, significant efforts are needed to test their veracity for regional-scale climate simulations.

  14. Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-11-15

    Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on

  15. Global and regional effects of land-use change on climate in 21st century simulations with interactive carbon cycle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. R. Boysen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Biogeophysical (BGP and biogeochemical (BGC effects of land-use and land cover change (LULCC are separated at the global and regional scales in new interactive CO2 simulations for the 21st century. Results from four earth system models (ESMs are analyzed for the future RCP8.5 scenario from simulations with and without land-use and land cover change (LULCC, contributing to the Land-Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts (LUCID project. Over the period 2006–2100, LULCC causes the atmospheric CO2 concentration to increase by 12, 22, and 66 ppm in CanESM2, MIROC-ESM, and MPI-ESM-LR, respectively. Statistically significant changes in global near-surface temperature are found in three models with a BGC-induced global mean annual warming between 0.07 and 0.23 K. BGP-induced responses are simulated by three models in areas of intense LULCC of varying sign and magnitude (between −0.47 and 0.10 K. Modifications of the land carbon pool by LULCC are disentangled in accordance with processes that can lead to increases and decreases in this carbon pool. Global land carbon losses due to LULCC are simulated by all models: 218, 57, 35 and 34 Gt C by MPI-ESM-LR, MIROC-ESM, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CanESM2, respectively. On the contrary, the CO2-fertilization effect caused by elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations due to LULCC leads to a land carbon gain of 39 Gt C in MPI-ESM-LR and is almost negligible in the other models. A substantial part of the spread in models' responses to LULCC is attributed to the differences in implementation of LULCC (e.g., whether pastures or crops are simulated explicitly and the simulation of specific processes. Simple idealized experiments with clear protocols for implementing LULCC in ESMs are needed to increase the understanding of model responses and the statistical significance of results, especially when analyzing the regional-scale impacts of LULCC.

  16. Hantaviruses and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klempa, B

    2009-06-01

    Most hantaviruses are rodent-borne emerging viruses. They cause two significant human diseases, haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Asia and Europe, and hantavirus cardiopulmonary syndrome in the Americas. Very recently, several novel hantaviruses with unknown pathogenic potential have been identified in Africa and in a variety of insectivores (shrews and a mole). Because there is very limited information available on the possible impact of climate change on all of these highly dangerous pathogens, it is timely to review this aspect of their epidemiology. It can reasonably be concluded that climate change should influence hantaviruses through impacts on the hantavirus reservoir host populations. We can anticipate changes in the size and frequency of hantavirus outbreaks, the spectrum of hantavirus species and geographical distribution (mediated by changes in population densities), and species composition and geographical distribution of their reservoir hosts. The early effects of global warming have already been observed in different geographical areas of Europe. Elevated average temperatures in West-Central Europe have been associated with more frequent Puumala hantavirus outbreaks, through high seed production (mast year) and high bank vole densities. On the other hand, warm winters in Scandinavia have led to a decline in vole populations as a result of the missing protective snow cover. Additional effects can be caused by increased intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events, or by changes in human behaviour leading to higher risk of human virus exposure. Regardless of the extent of climate change, it is difficult to predict the impact on hantavirus survival, emergence and epidemiology. Nevertheless, hantaviruses will undoubtedly remain a significant public health threat for several decades to come.

  17. Teaching Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donoghue, A.

    2011-09-01

    In giving public presentations about climate change, we face the barriers of mis-information in the political debate and lack of science literacy that extends to science phobia for some. In climate issues, the later problem is compounded by the fact that the science - reconstruction of past climate through the use of proxy sources, such as isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen - is complex, making it more challenging for general audiences. Also, the process of science, particularly peer review, is suspected by some to be a way of keeping science orthodox instead of keeping it honest. I approach these barriers by focusing on the data and the fact that the data have been carefully acquired over decades and centuries by dedicated people with no political agenda. I have taught elderhostel courses twice and have given many public talks on this topic. Thus I have experience in this area to share with others. I would also like to learn of others' approaches to the vast amount of scientific information and getting past the politics. A special interest group on climate change will allow those of us to speak on this important topic to share how we approach both the science and the politics of this issue.

  18. Precipitation extremes under climate change

    CERN Document Server

    O'Gorman, Paul A

    2015-01-01

    The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to...

  19. Climate for Change?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wejs, Anja

    around international networks. Despite the many initiatives taken by cities, existing research shows that the implementation of climate change actions is lacking. The reasons for this scarcity in practice are limited to general explanations in the literature, and studies focused on explaining...... and to investigate the institutional dynamics new institutional theory is used with an emphasis on examining institutional mechanisms in relation to building legitimacy for action. The concept of mechanisms can help explain how and why constraints on action occur, and the concept of legitimacy is useful to clarify...... the strategies used by officials to enable climate change action. A long running criticism of institutional theory is the emphasis on how institutions constrain actions rather than act as productive phenomena that facilitate action. Emergent strands within new institutional theory emphasise the role of agency...

  20. Climate Change Justice

    OpenAIRE

    Sunstein, Cass R.; Posner, Eric A.

    2007-01-01

    Greenhouse gas reductions would cost some nations much more than others and benefit some nations far less than others. Significant reductions would impose especially large costs on the United States, and recent projections suggest that the United States has relatively less to lose from climate change. In these circumstances, what does justice require the United States to do? Many people believe that the United States is required to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions beyond the point that is ...

  1. Confronting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, Irving M.

    1992-06-01

    This book, which was published in time for the Earth Summit in Brazil in June 1992, is likely to make a huge impact on the political and economic agendas of international policy makers. It summarizes the scientific findings of Working Group I of the IPCC in the first part of the book. While acknowledging the uncertainties in subsequent chapters, it challenges and expands upon the existing views on how we should tackle the problems of climate change.

  2. Response of winter North Atlantic storm track to climate change in the CNRM-CM5 simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chauvin, Fabrice; Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    Climate variability in Europe in winter is largely controlled by North Atlantic storm tracks. These are associated with transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour, between the equator and mid latitudes. Extratropical cyclones have caused severe damages over some regions in north-western Europe, since they can combine extreme precipitation and strong winds. This is why it is relevant to study the impact of climate change on the extratropical cyclones, principally on their intensity, position or lifespan. Indeed, several recent studies have focused on this subject by using atmospheric reanalysis and general circulation models (GCMs). The main conclusions from the CMIP3 simulations showed a decreasing of the total number of cyclones and a poleward shift of their tracks in response to global warming. In the recent CMIP5 exercise, the consensus is not so clear, probably due to more complex feedbacks acting in the different models. Thus, the question of changes in North Atlantic storm-tracks with warming remains open. The main goal of this work is to explore the changes in the North Atlantic storm-tracks in the past and future decades and to analyze the contributions of the different external forcings (natural and anthropogenic) versus the internal variability. On this purpose, we use the Detection and Attribution (D&A) simulations performed with the coupled model CNRM-CM5. To characterize the extratropical cyclones and their tracks, a tracking scheme based on the detection of maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa is conducted. We show that the coupled model fairly well reproduces the storm genesis locations as well as the tracks pathways comparing to several atmospheric reanalysis products. In the recent historical period (1950-2005), the model shows a decrease in the number of storms in the southern North-Atlantic, when all the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are prescribed. Even if the role of internal variability is important in the last decades (the

  3. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  4. Climate change and disaster management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

    2006-03-01

    Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

  5. Global climate change and US agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Richard M.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Peart, Robert M.; Ritchie, Joe T.; Mccarl, Bruce A.

    1990-01-01

    Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

  6. Climate change regional review: Russia

    OpenAIRE

    Sharmina, Maria; Anderson, Kevin; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2013-01-01

    With climate change, an increasingly important focus of scientific and policy discourse, the Russian government has aimed to position the country as one of the leaders of the global process for addressing climate change. This article reviews a breadth of literature to analyze the politico-economic situation in Russia with regard to international climate change negotiations, related domestic policies, societal attitudes, and climatic change impacts on Russia's territory. The analysis demonstra...

  7. Assessment of simulated rainfall and temperature from the regional climate model REMO and future changes over Central Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fotso-Nguemo, Thierry C.; Vondou, Derbetini A.; Tchawoua, Clément; Haensler, Andreas

    2016-07-01

    This work investigates spatial and temporal changes in rainfall and temperature over Central Africa, using historical and representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) of the regional climate model REMO forced by two general climate models: the Europe-wide Consortium Earth System Model (EC-Earth) and the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). We found that in the present period (1980-2005), the spatial distribution of rainfall is simulated with an annual spatial pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) of 0.76 for REMO driven by EC-Earth and 0.74 for REMO driven by MPI-ESM respectively when compared to CRU data. In terms of temperature, the annual PCC is 0.93 for the two REMO outputs. According to the climatology of Central Africa, we subdivided the study area into five sub-regions, we also noticed that the annual and seasonal PCC depend on the considered sub-region. For the future period (2070-2095), temperature is projected to increase following all the three scenarios. The rainfall amount is projected to decrease by up to 5 mm/day towards the end of the twenty first century under RCP8.5 scenario, and by 1-2 mm/day under RCP4.5 and RCP2.6 scenarios over Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Congo, north-western Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the Lake Victoria. Significant decrease is predicted to occur mostly in the northern part of the domain under RCP8.5 scenario. However, future rainfall over High Lands of Cameroon, Adamawa Plateau, north-eastern DRC and Atlantic Ocean is projected to increase.

  8. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...

  9. Climate Change and Natural Disasters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merkouris, Panos; Negri, Stefania; Maljean-Dubois, Sandrine

    2014-01-01

    Only 21 years ago, in 1992, the first ever convention on climate change, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was signed. The science behind studying climate change and its effects on the environment is not only mind-boggling but still in its infancy. It should come the

  10. Comparative analysis of the influence of climate change and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in European Russia: simulation modelling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Komarov, A. S.; V. N. Shanin

    2012-01-01

    An individual-based simulation model, EFIMOD, was used to simulate the response of forest ecosystems to climate change and additional nitrogen deposition. The general scheme of the model includes forest growth depending on nitrogen uptake by plants and mineralization of soil organic matter. The mineralization rate is dependent on nitrogen content in litter and forest floor horizons. Three large forest areas in European Central Russia with a total area of about 17 000 km2

  11. Comparative analysis of the influence of climate change and nitrogen deposition on carbon sequestration in forest ecosystems in European Russia: simulation modelling approach

    OpenAIRE

    Komarov, A. S.; V. N. Shanin

    2012-01-01

    An individual-based simulation model, EFIMOD, was used to simulate the response of forest ecosystems to climate change and additional nitrogen deposition. The general scheme of the model includes forest growth depending on nitrogen uptake by plants and mineralization of soil organic matter. The mineralization rate is dependent on nitrogen content in litter and forest floor horizons. Three large forest areas in European Central Russia with a total area of about 17 000 km2 in ...

  12. Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains

    OpenAIRE

    S. Adhikari; Marshall, S. J.

    2013-01-01

    Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning physics, ranging ...

  13. Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Dust Storms Over Kuwait by the Middle of the Century Simulated by WRF Dynamical Downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alsarraf, Hussain

    The aim of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on future dust storms in Kuwait. Dust storms are more frequent in summertime in the Arabian Peninsula, and can be highly influential on the climate and the environment in the region. In this study, the influence of climate change in the Middle East and especially in Kuwait was investigated by high-resolution (48, 12, and 4 km grid spacing) dynamic downscaling using the WRF (Weather Research & Forecasting) model. The WRF dynamic downscaling was forced by reanalysis using the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP) model for the years 1997, 2000, and 2008. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing NCEP model outputs with the observational data. The global climate change dynamic downscaling model was run using current WRF regional climate model (RCM) simulations (2006--2010) and WRF-RCM climate simulations of the future (2056--2060). They were used to compare results between the present and the middle of the century. In general, the dominant features from (NCEP) runs were consistent with each other, as well as with WRF-RCM results. The influence of climate change in the Middle East and Kuwait can be projected from the differences between the current and model future run. The average temperature showed a positive trend in the future, as in other studies. The temperature was predicted to increase by around 0.5-2.5 °C over the next 50 years. No significant change in mean sea level pressure patterns was projected. However, amongst other things, a change in the trend of the surface wind speeds was indicated during summertime. As a result, the increase in temperature and the decline in wind speed in the future indicate a reduction in dust storm days in Kuwait by the middle of the century.

  14. Simulation of long-term future climate changes with the green McGill paleoclimate model. The next glacial inception

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cochelin, A.S.B.; Mysak, L.A.; Wang, Zhaomin Wang [Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, 805 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2K6 (Canada)

    2006-12-15

    The multi-component 'green' McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM), which includes interactive vegetation, is used to simulate the next glacial inception under orbital and prescribed atmospheric CO2 forcing. This intermediate complexity model is first run for short-term periods with an increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration; the model's response is in general agreement with the results of GCMs for CO2 doubling. The green MPM is then used to derive projections of the climate for the next 100 kyr. Under a constant CO2 level, the model produces three types of evolution for the ice volume: an imminent glacial inception (low CO2 levels), a glacial inception in 50 kyr (CO2 levels of 280 or 290 ppm), or no glacial inception during the next 100 kyr (CO2 levels of 300 ppm and higher). This high sensitivity to the CO2 level is due to the exceptionally weak future variations of the summer insolation at high northern latitudes. The changes in vegetation re-inforce the buildup of ice sheets after glacial inception. Finally, if an initial global warming episode of finite duration is included, after which the atmospheric CO2 level is assumed to stabilize at 280, 290 or 300 ppm, the impact of this warming is seen only in the first 5 kyr of the run; after this time the response is insensitive to the early warming perturbation.

  15. Simulated impacts of climate change on current farming locations of striped catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Anh L; Dang, Vinh H; Bosma, Roel H; Verreth, Johan A J; Leemans, Rik; De Silva, Sena S

    2014-12-01

    In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta's economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these influences. In this study, water level rise and salt water intrusion for three sea level rise (SLR) scenarios (i.e., +30, +50, and +75 cm) were simulated. The results showed that at SLR +50, the 3-m-flood level would spread downstream and threaten farms located in AnGiang, DongThap and CanTho provinces. Rising salinity levels for SLR +75 would reduce the window appropriate for the culture in SocTrang and BenTre provinces, and in TienGiang's coastal districts. Next to increasing dikes to reduce the impacts, the most tenable and least disruptive option to the farming community would be to shift to a salinity tolerant strain of catfish.

  16. Projection of future climate change conditions using IPCC simulations, neural networks and Bayesian statistics. Part 2: Precipitation mean state and seasonal cycle in South America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

    2007-02-15

    Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos

  17. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  18. Climate Changes around the world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahl, J.

    2009-07-01

    This presentation addresses several important aspects of the climate changes that are occurring around the globe. the causes of climate change are first reviewed, with illustrations of orbital oscillations, the atmospheric greenhouse effect, and aerosol effects. Observed changes in climate are next reviewed, both thought many millenia and during the past century. Distinctions are made between global warming and regional changes in temperature and precipitation. Changes in the frequency of weather extremes, including heat waves and tropical storms, are also discussed. (Author)

  19. Climate change and health

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Last, J.M. [Ottawa Univ., ON (Canada); Chiotti, Q.P. [Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-12-31

    Adverse effects such as heat-related illnesses are felt on human health as a result of climate change. Those effects can also be the increased frequency and severity of extreme weather resulting in injury and death, a wider array of insect vectors for diseases, as well as increased risk of allergic, food-borne and water-borne diseases. Coastal ecosystems are altered, sea levels are rising and millions of people will need to relocate in the next century as a result of global warming. Keeping disaster plans, maintaining epidemiological monitoring and surveillance, and issuing advisory messages concerning the risks to human health are some of the responses required from public health officials. The establishment of standards, the development of policies on food and nutrition and the defining of priorities for research are important aspects that must be kept in mind. The authors indicated that multidisciplinary approaches are better suited to find solutions to the challenges encountered due to climate change than the narrow methods used in the past. refs., 4 tabs.

  20. Communicating Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    I will discuss the various challenges scientists must confront in efforts to communicate the science and implications of climate change to the public. Among these challenges is the stiff headwind we must fight of a concerted disinformation effort designed to confuse the public about the nature of our scientific understanding of the problem and the reality of the underlying societal threat. We also must fight the legacy of the public’s perception of the scientist. That is to say, we must strive to communicate in plainspoken language that neither insults the intelligence of our audience, nor hopelessly loses them in jargon and science-speak. And through all of this, we must maintain our composure and good humor even in the face of what we might consider the vilest of tactics by our opposition. When it comes to how best to get our message out to the broader public, I don’t pretend to have all of the answers. But I will share some insights and anecdotes that I have accumulated over the course of my own efforts to inform the public about the reality of climate change and the potential threat that it represents.

  1. The effect of climate change on the population of sycamore lace bug (Corythuca ciliata, Say) based on a simulation model with phenological response

    OpenAIRE

    2006-01-01

    Climate change affects on insect populations in many ways: it can cause a shift in geographical spread, abundance, or diversity, it can change the location, the timing and the magnitude of outbreaks of pests and it can define the phenological or even the genetic properties of the species. Long-time investigations of special insect populations, simulation models and scenario studies give us very important information about the response of the insects far away and near to our century. Gettin...

  2. Politics of climate change belief

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Donald Trump's actions during the election and his first weeks as US president-elect send a strong message about his belief in climate change, or lack thereof. However, these actions may reflect polarization of climate change beliefs, not climate mitigation behaviour.

  3. Simulating the Hydrologic Effects of Climate Change in 5 Research Watersheds using a Distributed-Parameter Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, J. F.; Hunt, R.; Aulenbach, B. T.; Clow, D. W.; Murphy, S.; Shanley, J. B.; Scholl, M. A.; Hay, L.; Regan, R. S.; Markstrom, S. L.

    2013-12-01

    A new focus of the U.S. Geological Survey's Water, Energy, and Biogeochemical Budgets (WEBB) program is the development of watershed models to predict hydrologic response to future conditions including land-use and climate change. Fine-scale models of 5 WEBB watersheds were constructed and embedded in coarse-scale models of larger stream systems. The WEBB watersheds range in size from 41 to 3,260 hectares; the coarse-scale models range in size from 1,100 to 4,800 square kilometers. The coarse-scale models were calibrated using data collected from 1980 to 2012 and included streamflow, snow-water equivalent (where appropriate), and seasonal distributions of solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration. Solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration were retrieved from a national gridded dataset using the USGS Geodata Portal (GDP) tool. Snowpack data was available as a national gridded dataset from December 2003 through November 2012, and was retrieved using the GDP. A stepwise approach was taken to identify specific hydrologic processes pertinent to the calibration targets. Calibration was carried out using the Parameter ESTimation (PEST) suite of automated calibration tools. Several climate models and three emission scenarios were selected from a range of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate projections to investigate the potential hydrologic effects of climate change in the WEBB watersheds. The GDP was used to construct input data sets for each coarse-scale model using a national dataset of downscaled climate data. Comparisons include projected changes in the dominant hydrologic processes across the five WEBB headwater basins, as well as, differences between headwater streams and higher-order streams at a regional scale.

  4. Climate Change and Water Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA tools and workbooks guide users to mitigate and adapt to climate change impacts. Various tools can help manage risks, others can visualize climate projections in maps. Included are comprehensive tool kits hosted by other federal agencies.

  5. Climate Change and Water Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    To take action on climate impacts, practitioners must understand how climate change will effect their region, and the country. Training provided here by EPA and partners allow users to better grasp the issues and make decisions based on current science.

  6. Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Current Farming Locations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus; Sauvage) in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, L.A.; Dang, V.H.; Bosma, R.H.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Leemans, R.; Silva, De S.S.

    2014-01-01

    In Vietnam, culturing striped catfish makes an important contribution to the Mekong Delta's economy. Water level rise during rainy season and salt intrusion during dry season affect the water exchange and quality for this culture. Sea level rise as a consequence of climate change will worsen these i

  7. Climate Change and Poverty Reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-08-15

    Climate change will make it increasingly difficult to achieve and sustain development goals. This is largely because climate effects on poverty remain poorly understood, and poverty reduction strategies do not adequately support climate resilience. Ensuring effective development in the face of climate change requires action on six fronts: investing in a stronger climate and poverty evidence base; applying the learning about development effectiveness to how we address adaptation needs; supporting nationally derived, integrated policies and programmes; including the climate-vulnerable poor in developing strategies; and identifying how mitigation strategies can also reduce poverty and enable adaptation.

  8. Impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows in 134 catchments in the river Rhine basin using an ensemble of bias-corrected regional climate simulations.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demirel, M.C.; Booij, M.J.; Hoekstra, A.Y.

    2013-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on the seasonality of low flows were analysed for 134 sub-catchments covering the River Rhine basin upstream of the Dutch-German border. Three seasonality indices for low flows were estimated, namely the seasonality ratio (SR), weighted mean occurrence day (WMOD) and we

  9. Climate Change Assessment and Runoff Simulation in Philippine Basins for the Water Security Master Plan of Metro Manila and its Adjoining Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaranilla-sanchez, P. A.; Koike, T.; Nyunt, C.

    2012-12-01

    Metro Manila gets 97% of its domestic water supply from the Angat-Umiray System. With increasing population and urbanization, water use conflicts arise resulting to serious water shortage in both the agricultural areas upstream of Angat and the domestic water supply downstream. Hence it is critically important to assess the development of water resources in the surrounding river basins (Kaliwa River Basin, Pampanga River Basin and Angat River Basin). To accomplish this, accurate water balance of Metro Manila in the future should be determined to validate the water-use project suggested in the previous study incorporating the effects of climate change. A detailed climate change analysis is necessary for future climate change and stream regime in Angat, Kaliwa and Pampanga River Basins. The main objectives for the Climate Change Assessment and Runoff Simulation component are: 1.) To assess the climate change impacts on the water cycle in Metro Manila and its adjoining areas including the Angat, Kaliwa and Pampanga river basin. 2.) To propose optimized operations of the water resources management facilities.Six GCM models from CMIP3 were selected using spatial correlation and relative error focusing on the best models that represent the rainy season over the region. 3-step bias correction was done for rainfall while direct values were used for longwave and short wave radiation as well as air temperature. Comparison of past (1981-2000) and future(2046-2064) discharge simulations were done to determine the effect of changes in climate on water resources. Results of the analysis showed that in all 6 models, flood peaks in the future will increase while 4 out of 6 models showed that baseflow will slightly decrease in the future. 20, 50, 100 and 200 year extremes were analyzed and hydrological drought was quantified using the SA drought index on discharge. It is very important to be able to optimize the timing of utilizing the available excess water during wet season to

  10. Evaluating climate change adaptation options for urban flooding in Copenhagen based on new high‐end emission scenario simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonhardsen, Lykke; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of impacts in Denmark using ensemble projections of the A1B scenario are supplemented by two high‐end scenario...... to change substantially. The impacts are assessed using Copenhagen as a case study. For both types of extremes large adaptation measures are essential in the global six degree scenario; dikes must be constructed to mitigate sea surge risk and a variety of measures to store or convey storm water must...... be implemented as well as new paradigms for city planning to mitigate the impact of change in extreme precipitation risk. For both hazards business‐as‐usual are not possible scenarios, because large autonomous adaptation will occur in lack of suitable policy‐driven changes. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation...

  11. Possible Changes in the Characteristics of the Rainy Season over Northern South America: Results from a Regional Climate Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vasconcelos, Francisco; Costa, Alexandre; Gandu, Adilson; Sales, Domingo; Araújo, Luiz

    2013-04-01

    Regional Climate Simulations were performed with RAMS6.0 to evaluate possible changes in the behaviour of the rainy season over the Amazon region, within the CORDEX domain of the Inter-tropical Americas. We forced the regional model using data from one of the CMIP5 participants (HadGEM2-ES), both for the Historical Experiment (1980-2005) and along the XXI century under RCP 8.5 (heavy-emission scenario). Regarding projections, we analyzed results for three time slices, short (2014-2035), middle (2044-2065) and long term (2078-2099), according to the following steps. First, the spatially averaged precipitation in non-overlapping pentads over 7 sub-regions over northern South America was calculated ("boxes" 1 to 7). Then, we calculated the climatological annual cycle for each one of them. Finally, dates of the onset and demise of the rainy season are found, validating the model results against GPCP observations and checking for projected changes. In general, in the Historical Experiment, the model delays the onset of the rainy season over the northern areas and anticipates it over most inland sub-regions. Over eastern Amazon, the regional model represents it properly, besides a delay in the demise of about one month. In short-term projections, there is a slight increase in precipitation and a modest anticipation of the rainy season onset in the coastal areas. Projected changes in the annual cycle of most sub-regions are relatively modest for the short-term and mid-term periods, but may become very significant by the end of the century. Over Colombia (Box 1), which has a bimodal precipitation annual cycle, the model projects a late century increase in the first precipitation peak. Little change is projected for the two boxes roughly covering Venezuela, the Guianas and the northernmost portion of northern Brazilian states (Boxes 2 and 3). The box covering northern Peru and Ecuador (Box 4) shows increased March-April precipitation, but with no significant changes in the

  12. Philosophy of climate science part I: observing climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Frigg, Roman; Thompson, Erica; Werndl, Charlotte

    2015-01-01

    This is the first of three parts of an introduction to the philosophy of climate science. In this first part about observing climate change, the topics of definitions of climate and climate change, data sets and data models, detection of climate change, and attribution of climate change will be discussed.

  13. Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

    2013-12-01

    atmospheric circulation with applications of the Lorenz model, explored the land-sea breeze problem with the Dynamics and Thermodynamics Circulation Model (DTDM), and developed simple radiative transfer models. Class projects explored the effects of varying the content of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere, as well as the properties of paleoclimates in atmospheric simulations using EdGCM. Initial assessment of student knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors associated with these activities, particularly about climate change, was measured. Pre- and post-course surveys provided student perspectives about the courses and their learning about remote sensing and climate change concepts. Student performance on the tutorials and course projects evaluated students' ability to learn and apply their knowledge about climate change and skills with remote sensing to assigned problems or proposed projects of their choice. Survey and performance data illustrated that the exercises were successful in meeting their intended learning objectives as well as opportunities for further refinement and expansion.

  14. Climate change and marine life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Anthony J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Brander, Keith

    2012-01-01

    A Marine Climate Impacts Workshop was held from 29 April to 3 May 2012 at the US National Center of Ecological Analysis and Synthesis in Santa Barbara. This workshop was the culmination of a series of six meetings over the past three years, which had brought together 25 experts in climate change...... ecology, analysis of large datasets, palaeontology, marine ecology and physical oceanography. Aims of these workshops were to produce a global synthesis of climate impacts on marine biota, to identify sensitive habitats and taxa, to inform the current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC......) process, and to strengthen research into ecological impacts of climate change...

  15. Vegetation zones shift in changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belda, Michal; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava; Holtanova, Eva

    2016-04-01

    The analysis of climate patterns can be performed for each climate variable separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. In case of the Köppen-Trewartha classification it is integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also represent a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is used on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Furthermore, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for RCP 4.5 and 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries

  16. Climate Change Mitigation A Balanced Approach to Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    2012-01-01

    This book provides a fresh and innovative perspective on climate change policy. By emphasizing the multiple facets of climate policy, from mitigation to adaptation, from technological innovation and diffusion to governance issues, it contains a comprehensive overview of the economic and policy dimensions of the climate problem. The keyword of the book is balance. The book clarifies that climate change cannot be controlled by sacrificing economic growth and many other urgent global issues. At the same time, action to control climate change cannot be delayed, even though gradually implemented. Therefore, on the one hand climate policy becomes pervasive and affects all dimensions of international policy. On the other hand, climate policy cannot be too ambitious: a balanced approach between mitigation and adaptation, between economic growth and resource management, between short term development efforts and long term innovation investments, should be adopted. I recommend its reading. Carlo Carraro, President, Ca�...

  17. Preparing for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holdgate, M

    1989-01-01

    There is a distinct probability that humankind is changing the climate and at the same time raising the sea level of the world. The most plausible projections we have now suggest a rise in mean world temperature of between 1 degree Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius by 2030--just 40 years hence. This is a bigger change in a smaller period than we know of in the experience of the earth's ecosystems and human societies. It implies that by 2030 the earth will be warmer than at any time in the past 120,000 years. In the same period, we are likely to see a rise of 15-30 centimeters in sea level, partly due to the melting of mountain glaciers and partly to the expansion of the warmer seas. This may not seem much--but it comes on top of the 12-centimeter rise in the past century and we should recall that over 1/2 the world's population lives in zones on or near coasts. A quarter meter rise in sea level could have drastic consequences for countries like the Maldives or the Netherlands, where much of the land lies below the 2-meter contour. The cause of climate change is known as the 'greenhouse effect'. Greenhouse glass has the property that it is transparent to radiation coming in from the sun, but holds back radiation to space from the warmed surfaces inside the greenhouse. Certain gases affect the atmosphere in the same way. There are 5 'greenhouse gases' and we have been roofing ourselves with them all: carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have increased 25% above preindustrial levels and are likely to double within a century, due to tropical forest clearance and especially to the burning of increasing quantities of coal and other fossil fuels; methane concentrations are now twice their preindustrial levels as a result of releases from agriculture; nitrous oxide has increased due to land clearance for agriculture, use of fertilizers, and fossil fuel combustion; ozone levels near the earth's surface have increased due mainly to pollution from motor vehicles; and

  18. Conflict in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carleton, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.

    2016-05-01

    A growing body of research illuminates the role that changes in climate have had on violent conflict and social instability in the recent past. Across a diversity of contexts, high temperatures and irregular rainfall have been causally linked to a range of conflict outcomes. These findings can be paired with climate model output to generate projections of the impact future climate change may have on conflicts such as crime and civil war. However, there are large degrees of uncertainty in such projections, arising from (i) the statistical uncertainty involved in regression analysis, (ii) divergent climate model predictions, and (iii) the unknown ability of human societies to adapt to future climate change. In this article, we review the empirical evidence of the climate-conflict relationship, provide insight into the likely extent and feasibility of adaptation to climate change as it pertains to human conflict, and discuss new methods that can be used to provide projections that capture these three sources of uncertainty.

  19. Changes in Extreme Events as Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model for the Next 20-30 Years over China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Ji-Yun; SHI Ying; GAO Xue-Jie

    2012-01-01

    In this paper, the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20-30 years (2021-2050) in relative to the present day (1986-2005) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed based on a high-resolution climate change simulation performed by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3). The extreme indices of summer days (SU), frost days (FD), and growing season length (GSL) for temperature and simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm d-1 (R10), and consecutive dry days (CDD) for precipitation are used as the indicators of the extremes. The results show that the indices simulated by RegCM3 in the present day show good agreement with the observed. A general increase in SU, a decrease in FD, and an increase in GSL are found to occur in the next 20-30 years over China. A general increase in SDII, an increase in R10 over western China, and a decrease in R10 in north, northeast, and central China are simulated by the model. Changes in CDD are characterized by a decrease in the north and an increase in the south and the Tibetan Plateau.

  20. Climate change and human health

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Warren, John A; Berner, James E; Curtis, Tine

    2005-01-01

    or degradation of permafrost. Climate change can result in damage to sanitation infrastructure resulting in the spread of disease or threatening a community's ability to maintain its economy, geographic location and cultural tradition, leading to mental stress. Through monitoring of some basic indicators...... communities can begin to develop a response to climate change. With this information, planners, engineers, health care professionals and governments can begin to develop approaches to address the challenges related to climate change....

  1. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Overview of Climate Change Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mearns, L. O.

    2012-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) and multiple global model responses by nesting the RCMs within atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with a medium-high emissions scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within the NCEP reanalysis R2. The basic spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes six different RCMs that have been used in various intercomparison programs in Europe and the United States. Four different AOGCMs provide boundary conditions to drive the RCMS for 30 years in the current climate and 30 years for the mid 21st century. The resulting climate model simulations form the basis for multiple high resolution climate scenarios that can be used in climate change impacts and adaptation assessments over North America. All 12 sets of current and future simulations have been completed. Measures of uncertainty across the multiple simulations are being developed by geophysical statisticians. In this overview talk, results from the various climate change experiments for various subregions, along with measures of uncertainty, will be presented

  2. Westerly jet stream and past millennium climate change in Arid Central Asia simulated by COSMO-CLM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah, Bijan; Sodoudi, Sahar; Cubasch, Ulrich

    2016-05-01

    This study tackles one of the most debated questions around the evolution of Central Asian climate: the "Puzzle" of moisture changes in Arid Central Asia (ACA) throughout the past millennium. A state-of-the-art Regional Climate Model (RCM) is subsequently employed to investigate four different 31-year time slices of extreme dry and wet spells, chosen according to changes in the driving data, in order to analyse the spatio-temporal evolution of the moisture variability in two different climatological epochs: Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). There is a clear regime behavior and bimodality in the westerly Jet phase space throughout the past millennium in ACA. The results indicate that the regime changes during LIA show a moist ACA and a dry East China. During the MCA, the Kazakhstan region shows a stronger response to the westerly jet equatorward shift than during the LIA. The out-of-phase pattern of moisture changes between India and ACA exists during both the LIA and the MCA. However, the pattern is more pronounced during the LIA.

  3. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  4. Cinematic climate change, a promising perspective on climate change communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakellari, Maria

    2015-10-01

    Previous research findings display that after having seen popular climate change films, people became more concerned, more motivated and more aware of climate change, but changes in behaviors were short-term. This article performs a meta-analysis of three popular climate change films, The Day after Tomorrow (2005), An Inconvenient Truth (2006), and The Age of Stupid (2009), drawing on research in social psychology, human agency, and media effect theory in order to formulate a rationale about how mass media communication shapes our everyday life experience. This article highlights the factors with which science blends in the reception of the three climate change films and expands the range of options considered in order to encourage people to engage in climate change mitigation actions.

  5. Sewer Systems and Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the impact of climate change on the overflows of sewer systems is assessed. The emphasis is on the overflows of combined sewer systems. The purpose is twofold: first, to obtain a first-order estimate of the impact of climate change on overflows of sewer systems; and second, to obtain insight into the relevant meteorological variables that are important with respect to climate change. A reservoir model is used to assess the impact of climate change on several combinations of st...

  6. MM5 Simulations of the China Regional Climate During the LGM.Ⅱ: Influence of Change of Land Area, Vegetation, and Large-scale Circulation Background

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yu; HE Jinhai; LI Weiliang; CHEN Longxun

    2008-01-01

    Using a regional climate model MM5 nested to an atmospheric global climate model CCM3, a series of simulations and sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate the relative LGM climate response to changes of land-sea distribution, vegetation, and large-scale circulation background over China.Model results show that compared with the present climate, the fluctuations of sea-land distribution in eastern Asia during the LGM result in the temperature decrease in winter and increase in summer. It has significant impact on the temperature and precipitation in the east coastal region of China. The impact on precipitation in the east coastal region of China is the most significant one, with 25%-50% decrease in the total precipitation change during the LGM. On the other hand, the changes in sea-land distribution have less influence on the climate of inland and western part of China. During the LGM, significant changes in vegetation result in temperature alternating with winter increase and summer decrease, but differences in the annual mean temperature are minor. During the LGM, the global climate, i.e., the large-scale circulation background has changed significantly. These changes have significant influences on temperature and precipitation over China. They result in considerable temperature decreases in this area, and direct the primary patterns and characteristics of temperature changes. Results display that, northeastern China has the greatest temperature decrease, and the temperature decrease in the Tibetan Plateau is larger than in the eastern part of China located at the same latitude. Moreover, the change of large-scale circulation background also controls the pattern of precipitation change. Results also show that, most of the changes in precipitation over western and northeastern parts of China are the consequences of changing large-scale circulation background, of which 50%-75% of precipitation changes over northern and eastern China are the

  7. Climate@Home: Crowdsourcing Climate Change Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, C.; Yang, C.; Li, J.; Sun, M.; Bambacus, M.

    2011-12-01

    Climate change deeply impacts human wellbeing. Significant amounts of resources have been invested in building super-computers that are capable of running advanced climate models, which help scientists understand climate change mechanisms, and predict its trend. Although climate change influences all human beings, the general public is largely excluded from the research. On the other hand, scientists are eagerly seeking communication mediums for effectively enlightening the public on climate change and its consequences. The Climate@Home project is devoted to connect the two ends with an innovative solution: crowdsourcing climate computing to the general public by harvesting volunteered computing resources from the participants. A distributed web-based computing platform will be built to support climate computing, and the general public can 'plug-in' their personal computers to participate in the research. People contribute the spare computing power of their computers to run a computer model, which is used by scientists to predict climate change. Traditionally, only super-computers could handle such a large computing processing load. By orchestrating massive amounts of personal computers to perform atomized data processing tasks, investments on new super-computers, energy consumed by super-computers, and carbon release from super-computers are reduced. Meanwhile, the platform forms a social network of climate researchers and the general public, which may be leveraged to raise climate awareness among the participants. A portal is to be built as the gateway to the climate@home project. Three types of roles and the corresponding functionalities are designed and supported. The end users include the citizen participants, climate scientists, and project managers. Citizen participants connect their computing resources to the platform by downloading and installing a computing engine on their personal computers. Computer climate models are defined at the server side. Climate

  8. Climate Change and Collective Violence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levy, Barry S; Sidel, Victor W; Patz, Jonathan A

    2017-03-20

    Climate change is causing increases in temperature, changes in precipitation and extreme weather events, sea-level rise, and other environmental impacts. It is also causing or contributing to heat-related disorders, respiratory and allergic disorders, infectious diseases, malnutrition due to food insecurity, and mental health disorders. In addition, increasing evidence indicates that climate change is causally associated with collective violence, generally in combination with other causal factors. Increased temperatures and extremes of precipitation with their associated consequences, including resultant scarcity of cropland and other key environmental resources, are major pathways by which climate change leads to collective violence. Public health professionals can help prevent collective violence due to climate change (a) by supporting mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, (b) by promoting adaptation measures to address the consequences of climate change and to improve community resilience, and

  9. Estimating changes in temperature extremes from millennial-scale climate simulations using generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Whitney K.; Stein, Michael L.; McInerney, David J.; Sun, Shanshan; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

    2016-07-01

    Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate change. However, it is intrinsically difficult to estimate changes in extreme events from the short observational record. In this work we use millennial runs from the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) in equilibrated pre-industrial and possible future (700 and 1400 ppm CO2) conditions to examine both how extremes change in this model and how well these changes can be estimated as a function of run length. We estimate changes to distributions of future temperature extremes (annual minima and annual maxima) in the contiguous United States by fitting generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. Using 1000-year pre-industrial and future time series, we show that warm extremes largely change in accordance with mean shifts in the distribution of summertime temperatures. Cold extremes warm more than mean shifts in the distribution of wintertime temperatures, but changes in GEV location parameters are generally well explained by the combination of mean shifts and reduced wintertime temperature variability. For cold extremes at inland locations, return levels at long recurrence intervals show additional effects related to changes in the spread and shape of GEV distributions. We then examine uncertainties that result from using shorter model runs. In theory, the GEV distribution can allow prediction of infrequent events using time series shorter than the recurrence interval of those events. To investigate how well this approach works in practice, we estimate 20-, 50-, and 100-year extreme events using segments of varying lengths. We find that even using GEV distributions, time series of comparable or shorter length than the return period of interest can lead to very poor estimates. These results suggest caution when attempting to use short observational time series or model runs to infer infrequent extremes.

  10. Climate variability and change

    CERN Document Server

    Grassl, H

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence climate. The present knowledge concerning the climate relevance of earth orbital parameters, solar luminosity, volcanoes, internal interactions, and human activities will be reported as well as the vulnerability of emission scenarios for given stabilization goals for greenhouse gas concentrations and the main points of the Kyoto Protocol

  11. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  12. Ground Water and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike; Konikow, Leonard; Green, Timothy R.; Chen, Jianyao; Taniguchi, Makoto; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; MacDonald, Alan; Fan, Ying; Maxwell, Reed M.; Yechieli, Yossi; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Shamsudduha, Mohammad; Hiscock, Kevin; Yeh, Pat J. -F; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2013-01-01

    As the world's largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate change as more frequent and intense climate extremes (droughts and floods) increase variability in precipitation, soil moisture and surface water. Here we critically review recent research assessing the impacts of climate on ground water through natural and human-induced processes as well as through groundwater-driven feedbacks on the climate system. Furthermore, we examine the possible opportunities and challenges of using and sustaining groundwater resources in climate adaptation strategies, and highlight the lack of groundwater observations, which, at present, limits our understanding of the dynamic relationship between ground water and climate.

  13. Sewer Systems and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brandsma, T.

    1993-01-01

    In this article the impact of climate change on the overflows of sewer systems is assessed. The emphasis is on the overflows of combined sewer systems. The purpose is twofold: first, to obtain a first-order estimate of the impact of climate change on overflows of sewer systems; and second, to obtain

  14. Ground water and climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Taylor, R.G.; Scanlon, B.; Döll, P.; Rodell, M.; Beek, R. van; Wada, Y.; Longuevergne, L.; Leblanc, M.; Famiglietti, J.S.; Edmunds, M.; Konikow, L.; Green, T.R.; Chen, J.; Taniguchi, M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.; MacDonald, A.; Fan, Y.; Maxwell, R.M.; Yechieli, Y.; Gurdak, J.J.; Allen, D.M.; Shamsudduha, M.; Hiscock, K.; Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Holman, Ian; Treidel, Holger

    2012-01-01

    As the world’s largest distributed store of fresh water, ground water plays a central part in sustaining ecosystems and enabling human adaptation to climate variability and change. The strategic importance of ground water for global water and food security will probably intensify under climate chang

  15. Dune erosion under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Winter, R.C.

    2014-01-01

    This PhD-thesis investigated the effect of future climate change on dune erosion in the Netherlands. At present, dune erosion occurs under a combination of large storm surge and high waves, which are both generated by a storm event. Therefore to investigate the affect of future climate change on dun

  16. Generating Arguments about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golden, Barry; Grooms, Jonathon; Sampson, Victor; Oliveri, Robin

    2012-01-01

    This unit is a different and fun way to engage students with an extremely important topic, climate change, which cuts across scientific and nonscientific disciplines. While climate change itself may not be listed in the curriculum of every science class, the authors contend that such a unit is appropriate for virtually any science curriculum.…

  17. Climate change, responsibility, and justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamieson, Dale

    2010-09-01

    In this paper I make the following claims. In order to see anthropogenic climate change as clearly involving moral wrongs and global injustices, we will have to revise some central concepts in these domains. Moreover, climate change threatens another value ("respect for nature") that cannot easily be taken up by concerns of global justice or moral responsibility.

  18. Teaching about Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffron, Susan Gallagher; Valmond, Kharra

    2011-01-01

    Students are exposed to many different media reports about global climate change. Movies such as "The Day After Tomorrow" and "Ice Age" are examples of instances when movie producers have sought to capture the attention of audiences by augmenting the challenges that climate change poses. Students may receive information from a wide range of media…

  19. Climate change challenges for SEA

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Sanne Vammen

    This paper takes a theoretical perspective on the challenges that climate changes pose for SEA. The theoretical framework used is the sociologist Ulrich Beck’s theory of risk society and the aspects that characterise this society. Climate change is viewed as a risk, and the theory is used to derive...

  20. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V. [University of Oxford, School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford (United Kingdom); Bradley, Raymond S. [University of Massachusetts, Department of Geosciences, Amherst, MA (United States); Diaz, Henry F. [NOAA/ESRL/CIRES, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2011-08-15

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Nino events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region. (orig.)

  1. Climate change in Central America and Mexico: regional climate model validation and climate change projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karmalkar, Ambarish V.; Bradley, Raymond S.; Diaz, Henry F.

    2011-08-01

    Central America has high biodiversity, it harbors high-value ecosystems and it's important to provide regional climate change information to assist in adaptation and mitigation work in the region. Here we study climate change projections for Central America and Mexico using a regional climate model. The model evaluation shows its success in simulating spatial and temporal variability of temperature and precipitation and also in capturing regional climate features such as the bimodal annual cycle of precipitation and the Caribbean low-level jet. A variety of climate regimes within the model domain are also better identified in the regional model simulation due to improved resolution of topographic features. Although, the model suffers from large precipitation biases, it shows improvements over the coarse-resolution driving model in simulating precipitation amounts. The model shows a dry bias in the wet season and a wet bias in the dry season suggesting that it's unable to capture the full range of precipitation variability. Projected warming under the A2 scenario is higher in the wet season than that in the dry season with the Yucatan Peninsula experiencing highest warming. A large reduction in precipitation in the wet season is projected for the region, whereas parts of Central America that receive a considerable amount of moisture in the form of orographic precipitation show significant decreases in precipitation in the dry season. Projected climatic changes can have detrimental impacts on biodiversity as they are spatially similar, but far greater in magnitude, than those observed during the El Niño events in recent decades that adversely affected species in the region.

  2. Apparent limitations in the ability of CMIP5 climate models to simulate recent multi-decadal change in surface temperature: implications for global temperature projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Power, Scott; Delage, François; Wang, Guomin; Smith, Ian; Kociuba, Greg

    2016-09-01

    Observed surface temperature trends over the period 1998-2012/2014 have attracted a great deal of interest because of an apparent slowdown in the rate of global warming, and contrasts between climate model simulations and observations of such trends. Many studies have addressed the statistical significance of these relatively short-trends, whether they indicate a possible bias in the model values and the implications for global warming generally. Here we re-examine these issues, but as they relate to changes over much longer-term changes. We find that on multi-decadal time scales there is little evidence for any change in the observed global warming rate, but some evidence for a recent temporary slowdown in the warming rate in the Pacific. This multi-decadal slowdown can be partly explained by a cool phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation and a short-term excess of La Niña events. We also analyse historical and projected changes in 38 CMIP climate models. All of the model simulations examined simulate multi-decadal warming in the Pacific over the past half-century that exceeds observed values. This difference cannot be fully explained by observed internal multi-decadal climate variability, even if allowance is made for an apparent tendency for models to underestimate internal multi-decadal variability in the Pacific. Models which simulate the greatest global warming over the past half-century also project warming that is among the highest of all models by the end of the twenty-first century, under both low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Given that the same models are poorest in representing observed multi-decadal temperature change, confidence in the highest projections is reduced.

  3. Malaria ecology and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCord, G. C.

    2016-05-01

    Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

  4. Shifts of climate zones in multi-model climate change experiments using the Koeppen climate classification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanf, Franziska; Koerper, Janina; Spangehl, Thomas; Cubash, Ulrich [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie

    2012-04-15

    This study investigates the future changes in the climate zones' distribution of the Earth's land area due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations in three IPCC SRES emissions scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1). The Koeppen climate classification is applied to climate simulations of seven atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) and their multi-model mean. The evaluation of the skill of the individual climate models compared to an observation-reanalysis-based climate classification provides a first order estimate of relevant model uncertainties and serves as assessment for the confidence in the scenario projections. Uncertainties related to differences in simulation pathways of the future projections are estimated by both, the multi-model ensemble spread of the climate change signals for a given scenario and differences between different scenarios. For the recent climate the individual models fail to capture the exact Koeppen climate types in about 24-39 % of the global land area excluding Antarctica due to temperature and precipitation biases, while the multi-model ensemble mean simulates the present day observation-reanalysis-based distribution of the climate types more accurately. For the end of the 21{sup st} century compared to the present day climate the patterns of change are similar across the three scenarios, while the magnitude of change is largest for the highest emission scenario. Moreover, the temporal development of the climate shifts from the end of the 20st century and during the 21{sup st} century show that changes of the multi-model ensemble mean for the A2 and B1 scenario are generally within the ensemble spread of the individual models for the A1B scenario, illustrating that for the given range of scenarios the model uncertainty is even larger than the spread given by the different GHG concentration pathways. The multi-model ensemble mean's projections show climate shifts to dryer climates in the subtropics

  5. [Simulation of the effects of climate change on canopy transpiration over a broad-leaved Korean pine forest in Changbai Mountains].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ni-Na; Yuan, Feng-Hui; Wang, An-Zhi; Wu, Jia-Bing; Jin, Chang-Jie; Guan, De-Xin; Shi, Ting-Ting

    2011-02-01

    To investigate the effects of climate change on canopy transpiration, a process-based carbon and water coupling multi-layer model was verified, and used to simulate the canopy transpiration over a broad-leaved Korean pine forest in Changbai Mountains. This multi-layer model could well estimate canopy transpiration. The simulated values fitted well with the measured data based on eddy covariance method. The simulation of the responses of canopy transpiration to climate change indicated that the latent heat flux (LE) increased with increasing air temperature, and decreased with the decline of soil water content or the increase of air CO2 concentration. Under the climate scenarios in this study, the LE was most sensitive to the associated variation of 10% reduction of soil water content in 0-20 cm layer and 190 micromol x mol(-1) increase of CO2 concentration, but not sensitive to the synchronous variation of 10% reduce of soil water content and 3.6 degrees C increase of air temperature.

  6. Stratospheric Ozone and Temperature Changes in the Past: The Impact of Increased Concentrations of CFCs in Simulations with a Chemistry-Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meul, S.; Oberländer, S.; Abalichin, J.; Kubin, A.; Langematz, U.

    2012-04-01

    Changes in stratospheric ozone between 1960 and the end of the 20th century are investigated analysing simulations with the Chemistry-Climate-Model (CCM) EMAC in FUB configuration (i.e. 39 layers with FUBRad parameterisation). In order to analyse the impact of increasing emissions of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) from 1960 to 2000 two sensitivity studies have been performed: a reference simulation with boundary conditions for the year 2000 and one analogue simulation but with CFC emissions reduced to 1960 levels. By comparing to a transient simulation (1960 to 2100) using the CCMVal SCN-B2d scenario it is possible to isolate the ozone changes that are caused by the CFC-increase only and separate the CFC-effect from other processes affecting ozone, e.g. climate change. By applying the method of Garny et al. (2011) the relative ozone changes arising from the CFC-modification can be attributed to changes in transport, chemical production and loss. Furthermore, it is analysed how the processes related to the CFC-increase contribute to the stratospheric cooling of up to 4K that is simulated by the SCN-B2d run between the 1960s and the 2000s in the upper stratosphere. The temperature change due to increased CFCs is caused by a reduced absorption of solar radiation by decreased ozone concentrations combined with the greenhouse gas (GHG) effect of the CFCs. In the upper stratosphere a cooling of up to 2.5K can be explained by the CFC-increase.

  7. NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) Presentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, William P.

    2012-01-01

    The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) offers integrated supercomputing, visualization, and data interaction technologies to enhance NASA's weather and climate prediction capabilities. It serves hundreds of users at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, as well as other NASA centers, laboratories, and universities across the US. Over the past year, NCCS has continued expanding its data-centric computing environment to meet the increasingly data-intensive challenges of climate science. We doubled our Discover supercomputer's peak performance to more than 800 teraflops by adding 7,680 Intel Xeon Sandy Bridge processor-cores and most recently 240 Intel Xeon Phi Many Integrated Core (MIG) co-processors. A supercomputing-class analysis system named Dali gives users rapid access to their data on Discover and high-performance software including the Ultra-scale Visualization Climate Data Analysis Tools (UV-CDAT), with interfaces from user desktops and a 17- by 6-foot visualization wall. NCCS also is exploring highly efficient climate data services and management with a new MapReduce/Hadoop cluster while augmenting its data distribution to the science community. Using NCCS resources, NASA completed its modeling contributions to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCG) Fifth Assessment Report this summer as part of the ongoing Coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Ensembles of simulations run on Discover reached back to the year 1000 to test model accuracy and projected climate change through the year 2300 based on four different scenarios of greenhouse gases, aerosols, and land use. The data resulting from several thousand IPCC/CMIP5 simulations, as well as a variety of other simulation, reanalysis, and observationdatasets, are available to scientists and decision makers through an enhanced NCCS Earth System Grid Federation Gateway. Worldwide downloads have totaled over 110 terabytes of data.

  8. Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anber, U.; Zakey, A.; Abd El Wahab, M.

    2009-04-01

    Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation (P % , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability (T % ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability (P % ,of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter

  9. Simulated dynamics of carbon stocks driven by changes in land use, management and climate in a tropical moist ecosystem of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Z.; Liu, S.; Tieszen, L.L.; Tachie-Obeng, E.

    2009-01-01

    Sub-Saharan Africa is large and diverse with regions of food insecurity and high vulnerability to climate change. This project quantifies carbon stocks and fluxes in the humid forest zone of Ghana, as a part of an assessment in West Africa. The General Ensemble biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) was used to simulate the responses of natural and managed systems to projected scenarios of changes in climate, land use and cover, and nitrogen fertilization in the Assin district of Ghana. Model inputs included historical land use and cover data, historical climate records and projected climate changes, and national management inventories. Our results show that deforestation for crop production led to a loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) by 33% from 1900 to 2000. The results also show that the trend of carbon emissions from cropland in the 20th century will continue through the 21st century and will be increased under the projected warming and drying scenarios. Nitrogen (N) fertilization in agricultural systems could offset SOC loss by 6% with 30 kg N ha-1 year-1 and by 11% with 60 kg N ha-1 year-1. To increase N fertilizer input would be one of the vital adaptive measures to ensure food security and maintain agricultural sustainability through the 21st century. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

  10. Climate change or variable weather

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Kjerulf Petersen, Lars

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios predict that an effect of climate change will be more areas at risk of extensive flooding. This article builds on a qualitative case study of homeowners in the flood-prone area of Lolland in Denmark and uses the theories of Tim Ingold and Bruno Latour to rethink the way we...... understand homeowners’ perception of climate change and local flood risk. Ingold argues that those perceptions are shaped by people’s experiences with and connections to their local landscape. People experience the local variability of the weather, and not global climate change as presented in statistical...... data and models. This influences the way they understand the future risks of climate change. Concurrently, with the theory of Latour, we can understand how those experiences with the local landscape are mediated by the existing water-managing technologies such as pumps and dikes. These technologies...

  11. Multi-model ensemble simulation and projection in the climate change in the Mekong River Basin. Part I: temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yong; Wang, Fengyou; Li, Yi; Cai, Tijiu

    2014-11-01

    This paper evaluates the performance of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating annual and decadal temperature in the Mekong River Basin from 1950 to 2005. By use of Bayesian multi-model averaging method, the future projection of temperature variation under different scenarios are also analyzed. The results show, the performances of climate model are more accurate in space than time, the model can catch the warming characteristics in the Mekong river Basin, but the accuracy of simulation is not good enough. Bayesian multi-model averaging method can improve the annual and decadal temperature simulation when compared to a single result. The projected temperature in Mekong River will increase by 0.88 °C/100 year, 2.15 °C/100 year and 4.96 °C/100 year for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, over the twenty-first century. The findings will be beneficial for local people and policy-maker to formulate regional strategies against the potential menaces of warming scenarios.

  12. Prognosis of groundwater recharge by means of the simulation tool PCSiWaPro® under the conditions of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, M.; Sallwey, J.; Hasan, I.; Graeber, P.-W.

    2012-04-01

    Recent studies showed that varying atmospheric conditions as a result of climate change have a significant impact on the magnitude and time variable development of groundwater recharge. Essentially there are two driving factors that influence groundwater recharge: the temporal distribution of precipitation, and the saturation processes resulting from capillary effects in the unsaturated soil zone. Water balance processes can accurately be modelled by using the Richards' equation for transient flow, together with the Van-Genuchten/Luckner approximation describing hysteresis relationships between water contents and pressure heads in the soil. Precipitation distributions, as boundary conditions for the unsaturated model, can be generated from climate data measurements using statistical analysis tools. These synthetic time series reflect both the real climate conditions in a given model area, as well as statistical variations of rainfall by implementing characteristics of a predefined probability distribution. Depending on the kind of distribution, the resulting time series can represent both annual rainfall variations as well as long-term climate changes. The Institute of Waste Management and Contaminated Site Treatment of the TU Dresden has developed two software programs that help estimate these two driving forces for groundwater recharge. WettGen is a weather generator using a Weibull distribution and Markov chain approximations to create synthetic climate time series. These are applied as an upper boundary condition for PCSiWaPro®, a numerical finite element simulation tool solving the Richards' equation for water balance and a convection dispersion equation for contaminant. The result of this coupled simulation is an outflow at the lower boundary of the PCSiWaPro® model, which can be interpreted as a recharge rate for the underlying aquifer. Considering that climate change scenarios for Germany predict longer dry periods and an increase of extreme precipitation

  13. Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Rastogi, Deeksha; Mei, Rui; Bowling, Laura C.

    2016-08-01

    Despite the fact that Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs have been used to project hydrologic impacts of climate change using off-line hydrologic models for two decades, many of these efforts have been disjointed - applications or at least calibrations have been focused on individual river basins and using a few of the available GCMs. This study improves upon earlier attempts by systematically projecting hydrologic impacts for the entire conterminous United States (US), using outputs from ten GCMs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive, with seamless hydrologic model calibration and validation techniques to produce a spatially and temporally consistent set of current hydrologic projections. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was forced with ten-member ensemble projections of precipitation and air temperature that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° (~ 4 km) grid resolution for the baseline (1966-2005) and future (2011-2050) periods under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Based on regional analysis, the VIC model projections indicate an increase in winter and spring total runoff due to increases in winter precipitation of up to 20% in most regions of the US. However, decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days will lead to significant decreases in summer runoff with more pronounced shifts in the time of occurrence of annual peak runoff projected over the eastern and western US. In contrast, the central US will experience year-round increases in total runoff, mostly associated with increases in both extreme high and low runoff. The projected hydrological changes described in this study have implications for various aspects of future water resource management, including water supply, flood and drought preparation, and reservoir operation.

  14. Simulation of the future change of East Asian monsoon climate using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we applied the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, i.e. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigating the change of the East Asian climate in the last three decades of the 21st century with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. The global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast and, hence, enhances (reduces) the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation. The precipitation from the Yangtze and Huaihe river valley to North China increases significantly. In particular, the strong rainfall increase over North China implies that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward. In addition, from the southeastern coastal area to North China, the rainfall would increase significantly in September, implying that the rainy period of the East Asian monsoon would be prolonged about one month. In July, August and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enhances evidently over North China, meaning a risk of flooding in the future.

  15. Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, Robert S.

    2013-01-01

    Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period

  16. Risk communication on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2004-10-01

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration.

  17. Climatic change; Le Changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch. de [Universite de Paris-Dauphine, 75 - Paris (France); Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France); Delbosc, A. [Caisse des depots, Mission climat, 75 - Paris (France)

    2009-07-01

    Received ideas about climatic change are a mixture of right and wrong information. The authors use these ideas as starting points to shade light on what we really know and what we believe to know. The book is divided in three main chapters: should we act in front of climatic change? How can we efficiently act? How can we equitably act? For each chapter a series of received ideas is analyzed in order to find those which can usefully contribute to mitigate the environmental, economical and social impacts of climatic change. (J.S.)

  18. Inhalation anaesthetics and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Mads Peter Sulbæk; Sander, S P; Nielsen, O J

    2010-01-01

    Although the increasing abundance of CO(2) in our atmosphere is the main driver of the observed climate change, it is the cumulative effect of all forcing agents that dictate the direction and magnitude of the change, and many smaller contributors are also at play. Isoflurane, desflurane......, and sevoflurane are widely used inhalation anaesthetics. Emissions of these compounds contribute to radiative forcing of climate change. To quantitatively assess the impact of the anaesthetics on the forcing of climate, detailed information on their properties of heat (infrared, IR) absorption and atmospheric...

  19. Climate Change and Maize Yield in Iowa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E; Girvetz, Evan

    2016-01-01

    Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21st century as compared with late 20th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model with output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20th century to middle and late 21st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21st century.

  20. Coping with climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zheng, Yuan; Byg, Anja

    2014-01-01

    found across villages regarding the degree of perceived sensitivity and responses despite similar exposure to climate extremes. These differences are partly related to the nature of events and varied socio-economic characteristics of households, which influence their vulnerability and ability to cope...

  1. Deliberating Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agger, Annika; Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit

    to include the voice of the citizens into complex scientific and technological issues. The purpose of WWV was to pass on the opinions of ordinary citizens to political decision-makers at The United Nations Climate Summit, COP15, in Copenhagen in December 2009. The authors made a study of the Danish WWV event...

  2. Changing heathlands in a changing climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ransijn, Johannes

    ) a study on the effects of elevated atmospheric CO2-concentration, warming and drought on the photosynthetic capacity and phenology of C. vulgaris and D. flexuosa in an outdoor climate change experiment on a grassy heathland in Denmark; 4) a study on climate change impacts on the competitive interactions...... and flexibly reduces its green biomass under drought conditions. C. vulgaris is less flexible and hardly adjusts photosynthetic capacity or green biomass to drought or warming. Despite these differential responses, competitive interactions were robust. C. vulgaris, in the building phase, outcompetes D...... plant communities. Many heathlands have shifted from dwarf shrub dominance to grass dominance and climatic change might affect the competitive balance between dwarf shrubs and grasses. We looked at heathland vegetation dynamics and heathland plant responses to climatic change at different spatial...

  3. Simulated Climate Change Effects of Snowpack Manipulations on Soil Temperature and Moisture in the Sierra Nevada Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, B. G.; Jasoni, R. L.; Arnone, J.

    2012-12-01

    Future changes in climate are predicted to significantly affect the type and amount of precipitation in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California and Nevada. Because most of the yearly precipitation in this region falls as snow, changes in snowfall amount, snowfall timing, and duration of the snowpack may dramatically affect the timing and persistence of soil temperature and moisture, and biological processes dependent on these soil factors. The objective of our study was to quantify the effects of manipulating snowpack amounts on soil temperature and moisture over a two year period, including both the addition and removal of snow in a Pinus jeffreii (Jeffrey Pine) forest located northeast of Lake Tahoe, Nevada. Soil temperatures measured during the first winter (above average snow year) remained higher in control plots when snow was present, and in snow-addition plots, than in snow-removal plots. However, these effects did not persist in the second year when total snowfall amounted to only 20% of that occurring in the first year. Surprisingly, the effects on soil moisture persisted through the summer of year two with soil VWC in snow removal plots averaging approximately 50% drier than the snow addition plots (6.5% average VWC in snow removal and 13.2% in snow addition plots) and 13% drier on average than the control plots (7.5% average VWC in control plots).These results suggest the possibility of prolonged reductions in soil moisture, soil microbial activity, plant growth, and even increased danger of wildfires if anthropogenic climate change reduces snowfall amount and snowpack duration.

  4. Spatial changes of Extended De Martonne climatic zones affected by climate change in Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahimi, Jaber; Ebrahimpour, Meisam; Khalili, Ali

    2013-05-01

    In order to better understand the effect associated with global climate change on Iran's climate condition, it is important to quantify possible shifts in different climatic types in the future. To this end, monthly mean minimum and maximum temperature, and precipitation from 181 synoptic meteorological stations (average 1970-2005) have been collected from the meteorological organization of Iran. In this paper, to study spatial changes of Iran's climatic zones affected by climate changes, Extended De Martonne's classification (originally formulated by De Martonne and extended by Khalili (1992)) was used. Climate change scenarios were simulated in two future climates (average conditions during the 2050s and the 2080s) under each of the SRES A1B and A2, for the CSIRO-MK3, HadCM3, and CGCM3 climate models. Coarse outputs of GCMs were downscaled by delta method. We produced all maps for three time periods (one for the current and two for the future) according to Extended De Martonne's classification. Finally, for each climatic zone, changes between the current and the future were compared. As the main result, simulated changes indicate shifts to warmer and drier zones. For example, in the current, extra arid-cold ( A1.1m2) climate is covering the largest area of the country (21.4 %), whereas in both A1B and A2 scenarios in the 2050s and the 2080s, extra arid-moderate ( A1.1m3) and extra arid-warm ( A1.1m4) will be the climate and will occupy the largest area of the country, about 21 and 38 %, respectively. This analysis suggests that the global climate change will have a profound effect on the future distribution of severe aridity in Iran.

  5. Micro Climate Simulation in new Town 'Hashtgerd'

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sodoudi, S.; Langer, I.; Cubasch, U.

    2012-04-01

    One of the objectives of climatological part of project Young Cities 'Developing Energy-Efficient Urban Fabric in the Tehran-Karaj Region' is to simulate the micro climate (with 1m resolution) in 35ha of new town Hashtgerd, which is located 65 km far from mega city Tehran. The Project aims are developing, implementing and evaluating building and planning schemes and technologies which allow to plan and build sustainable, energy-efficient and climate sensible form mass housing settlements in arid and semi-arid regions ("energy-efficient fabric"). Climate sensitive form also means designing and planning for climate change and its related effects for Hashtgerd New Town. By configuration of buildings and open spaces according to solar radiation, wind and vegetation, climate sensitive urban form can create outdoor thermal comfort. To simulate the climate on small spatial scales, the micro climate model Envi-met has been used to simulate the micro climate in 35 ha. The Eulerian model ENVI-met is a micro-scale climate model which gives information about the influence of architecture and buildings as well as vegetation and green area on the micro climate up to 1 m resolution. Envi-met has been run with information from topography, downscaled climate data with neuro-fuzzy method, meteorological measurements, building height and different vegetation variants (low and high number of trees) Through the optimal Urban Design and Planning for the 35ha area the microclimate results shows, that with vegetation the microclimate in streets will be change: • 2 m temperature is decreased by about 2 K • relative humidity increase by about 10 % • soil temperature is decreased by about 3 K • wind speed is decreased by about 60% The style of buildings allows free movement of air, which is of high importance for fresh air supply. The increase of inbuilt areas in 35 ha reduces the heat island effect through cooling caused by vegetation and increase of air humidity which caused by

  6. Can Climate Change Negotiations Succeed?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Hovi

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available More than two decades of climate change negotiations have produced a series of global climate agreements, such as the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accords, but have nevertheless made very limited progress in curbing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper considers whether negotiations can succeed in reaching an agreement that effectively addresses the climate change problem. To be effective, a climate agreement must cause substantial emissions reductions either directly (in the agreement's own lifetime or indirectly (by paving the way for a future agreement that causes substantial emissions reductions directly. To reduce global emissions substantially, an agreement must satisfy three conditions. Firstly, participation must be both comprehensive and stable. Secondly, participating countries must accept deep commitments. Finally, the agreement must obtain high compliance rates. We argue that three types of enforcement will be crucial to fulfilling these three conditions: (1 incentives for countries to ratify with deep commitments, (2 incentives for countries that have ratified with deep commitments to abstain from withdrawal, and (3 incentives for countries having ratified with deep commitments to comply with them. Based on assessing the constraints that characterize the climate change negotiations, we contend that adopting such three-fold potent enforcement will likely be politically infeasible, not only within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, but also in the framework of a more gradual approach. Therefore, one should not expect climate change negotiations to succeed in producing an effective future agreement—either directly or indirectly.

  7. Climate change; Le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    Based on contributions on 120 French and foreign scientists representing different disciplines (mathematics, physics, mechanics, chemistry, biology, medicine, and so on), this report proposes an overview of the scientific knowledge and debate about climate change. It discusses the various indicators of climate evolution (temperatures, ice surfaces, sea level, biological indicators) and the various factors which may contribute to climate evolution (greenhouse gases, solar radiation). It also comments climate evolutions in the past as they can be investigated through some geological, thermal or geochemical indicators. Then, the authors describe and discuss the various climate mechanisms: solar activity, oceans, ice caps, greenhouse gases. In a third part, the authors discuss the different types of climate models which differ by the way they describe processes, and the current validation process for these models

  8. Climate change and group dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postmes, Tom

    2015-01-01

    The characteristics and views of people sceptical about climate change have been analysed extensively. A study now confirms that sceptics in the US have some characteristics of a social movement, but shows that the same group dynamics propel believers

  9. Cities lead on climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pancost, Richard D.

    2016-04-01

    The need to mitigate climate change opens up a key role for cities. Bristol's year as a Green Capital led to great strides forward, but it also revealed that a creative and determined partnership across cultural divides will be necessary.

  10. Climate change and water resources

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Younos, Tamim [The Cabell Brand Center for Global Poverty and Resource Sustainability Studies, Salem, VA (United States); Grady, Caitlin A. (ed.) [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Ecological Sciences and Engineering Program

    2013-07-01

    This volume presents nine chapters prepared by international authors and highlighting various aspects of climate change and water resources. Climate change models and scenarios, particularly those related to precipitation projection, are discussed and uncertainties and data deficiencies that affect the reliability of predictions are identified. The potential impacts of climate change on water resources (including quality) and on crop production are analyzed and adaptation strategies for crop production are offered. Furthermore, case studies of climate change mitigation strategies, such as the reduction of water use and conservation measures in urban environments, are included. This book will serve as a valuable reference work for researchers and students in water and environmental sciences, as well as for governmental agencies and policy makers.

  11. Climate Change Science Program Collection

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) Collection consists of publications and other resources produced between 2007 and 2009 by the CCSP with the intention of...

  12. Climate change: Unattributed hurricane damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallegatte, Stéphane

    2015-11-01

    In the United States, hurricanes have been causing more and more economic damage. A reanalysis of the disaster database using a statistical method that accounts for improvements in resilience opens the possibility that climate change has played a role.

  13. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change......, as a point of departure for an examination of what happens when a requirement to save energy and resources, as a response to global climate change, encounters local ways of knowing the world. Developed through meetings, workshops, competitions and the promotion of exemplary individuals, the campaign...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...

  14. Welfare impacts of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hof, Andries F.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily suggest greater mitigation efforts are required.

  15. Responsible Reaction To Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    China calls for turning UNFCCC provisions into concrete actions Never before has climate change been as prominent on the public agenda as it is today.Its rele- vance was highlighted once again when more than 10,000 delegates from over 180 countries flocked to Bali early this month to discuss the topic.Environment officials as well as representatives from intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations gath- ered on the Indonesian island on December 3-14 for the UN Climate Change Conference.

  16. Climate Change and National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-01

    atmosphere, which is causing warming of global temperatures as well as more extreme and less predictable weather patterns. While this issue is debated in...develop unique, policy-relevant solutions to complex global challenges. About the CCAPS Program The Climate Change and African Political Stability...political circles, scientists overwhelmingly agree that human-induced or anthropogenic climate change is real. Given the complexity of the issue, there

  17. Social protection and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johnson, Craig; Bansha Dulal, Hari; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject.......This article lays the foundation for this special issue on social protection and climate change, introducing and evaluating the ways in which the individual articles contribute to our understanding of the subject....

  18. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  19. Climate Change in Developing Countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Drunen, M.A.; Lasage, R.; Dorlands, C. (eds.) [Free University, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2006-09-15

    This book presents an overview of the studies conducted by the Netherlands Climate Change Studies Assistance programme. The programme was set up in recognition of the need for developing countries, in particular, to face the challenges confronting all countries under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The book presents an overview of the main results in 13 countries: Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Egypt, Ghana, Kazakhstan, Mali, Mongolia, Senegal, Surinam, Vietnam, Yemen and Zimbabwe. It provides a critical evaluation of the methodologies and approaches used, a cross-country synthesis and recommendations for further studies. Subjects dealt with include not only impact studies, but also vulnerability and adaptation, mitigation and climate related policy.

  20. Update on global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Carol J

    2010-01-01

    Global climate change brings new challenges to the control of infectious diseases. Since many waterborne and vector-borne pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, health risks resulting from a warming and more variable climate are potentially huge. Global climate change involves the entire world, but the poorest countries will suffer the most. Nations are coming together to address what can be done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and cope with inevitable temperature increases. A key component of any comprehensive mitigation and adaptation plan is a strong public health infrastructure across the world. Nothing less than global public health security is at stake.

  1. Simulation of landscape disturbances and the effect of climatic change. Final report, July 15, 1990--January 14, 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baker, W.L.

    1993-04-01

    Altering the natural disturbance regime of a landscape produces changes in the structure of that landscape as the landscape adjusts to the new disturbance regime. A computer simulation model was designed to enable analyses of the longterm changes to be expected in landscapes as their disturbance regime changes. The model, DISPATCH, is the first dynamic spatial simulation model built around a geographical information system (GIS). The model also includes a new set of programs, the r.le programs, that is the first set of programs designed for calculating landscape structure measures within a GIS. The DISPATCH model was used, to analyze the effects of human alterations of disturbance regimes and global change on landscape structure. Landscapes do not adjust quickly to these alterations based on available data. Landscapes subjected to warming or to longterm fire suppression experience a decline in patch richness, Shannon diversity, the amount of edge and contrast, but an increase in distance between patches, angular second moment (texture measure) and patch size. In contrast, landscapes subjected to cooling, the short-term effects of fire suppression, fragmentation, or traditional prescribed burning tend to respond with increasing richness, Shannon diversity, edge, and contrast, but declining distance, angular second moment, and size. The pattern of response is different at different scales, with important implications for species.

  2. A model for simulating the response of runoff from the mountainous watersheds of inland river basins in the arid area of northwest China to climatic changes

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    康尔泗; 程国栋; 蓝永超; 金会军

    1999-01-01

    A model for simulating the response of monthly runoff from the mountainous watersheds to climatic changes is developed.The model is based on the modifications to the HBV runoff model, and therefore represents the characteristics and runoff generation processes of inland river basins in the arid area of northwest China. Taking the mountainous watershed of an inland river, the Heihe River originating from the Qilian Mountains and running through the Hexi Corridor as an example, the monthly runoff changes under different climate scenarios are simulated. The simulation indicates that, during the years from 1994 to 2030, if the annual mean air temperature increases by 0.5℃, and precipitation keeps unchanged, then the runoff of May and October will increase because of the increase of the snow melt runoff, but the runoff of July and August will decrease to some extent because of the increase of evaporation, and as a result, the annual runoff will decrease by 4%. If the precipitation still keeps unchanged, an

  3. Simulation of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in an atmosphere-ocean global coupled model. Part II: weakening in a climate change experiment: a feedback mechanism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guemas, Virginie [Meteo-France, CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GMGEC), Toulouse Cedex (France); CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, UMR 1572, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Salas-Melia, David [Meteo-France, CNRS, Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques/Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM/GMGEC), Toulouse Cedex (France)

    2008-06-15

    Most state-of-the art global coupled models simulate a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in climate change scenarios but the mechanisms leading to this weakening are still being debated. The third version of the CNRM (Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques) global atmosphere-ocean-sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) was used to conduct climate change experiments for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). The analysis of the A1B scenario experiment shows that global warming leads to a slowdown of North Atlantic deep ocean convection and thermohaline circulation south of Iceland. This slowdown is triggered by a freshening of the Arctic Ocean and an increase in freshwater outflow through Fram Strait. Sea ice melting in the Barents Sea induces a local amplification of the surface warming, which enhances the cyclonic atmospheric circulation around Spitzberg. This anti-clockwise circulation forces an increase in Fram Strait outflow and a simultaneous increase in ocean transport of warm waters toward the Barents Sea, favouring further sea ice melting and surface warming in the Barents Sea. Additionally, the retreat of sea ice allows more deep water formation north of Iceland and the thermohaline circulation strengthens there. The transport of warm and saline waters toward the Barents Sea is further enhanced, which constitutes a second positive feedback. (orig.)

  4. Detection and Attribution of Regional Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bala, G; Mirin, A

    2007-01-19

    We developed a high resolution global coupled modeling capability to perform breakthrough studies of the regional climate change. The atmospheric component in our simulation uses a 1{sup o} latitude x 1.25{sup o} longitude grid which is the finest resolution ever used for the NCAR coupled climate model CCSM3. Substantial testing and slight retuning was required to get an acceptable control simulation. The major accomplishment is the validation of this new high resolution configuration of CCSM3. There are major improvements in our simulation of the surface wind stress and sea ice thickness distribution in the Arctic. Surface wind stress and ocean circulation in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current are also improved. Our results demonstrate that the FV version of the CCSM coupled model is a state of the art climate model whose simulation capabilities are in the class of those used for IPCC assessments. We have also provided 1000 years of model data to Scripps Institution of Oceanography to estimate the natural variability of stream flow in California. In the future, our global model simulations will provide boundary data to high-resolution mesoscale model that will be used at LLNL. The mesoscale model would dynamically downscale the GCM climate to regional scale on climate time scales.

  5. CLIMATE CHANGES: CAUSES AND IMPACT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Slave

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Present brings several environmental problems for people. Many of these are closely related, but by far the most important problem is the climate change. In the course of Earth evolution, climate has changed many times, sometimes dramatically. Warmer eras always replaced and were in turn replaced by glacial ones. However, the climate of the past almost ten thousand years has been very stable. During this period human civilization has also developed. In the past nearly 100 years - since the beginning of industrialization - the global average temperature has increased by approx. 0.6 ° C (after IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, faster than at any time in the last 1000 years.

  6. Late Quaternary changes in climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

    1998-12-01

    This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

  7. Inter-hemispheric comparison of climate change in the last millennium based on the ECHO-G simulation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KUANG XueYuan; LIU Jian; WANG HongLi; WANG SuMin

    2008-01-01

    The commonality and difference in the variations of temperature and precipitation between the North-ern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemispheres (SH) in the last millennium are investigated by analy-sis of the millennium simulation with the ECHO-G coupled climate model. The NH mean temperature variations are generally consistent with those of the SH counterpart on the interannual, decadal and centennial time scales. But, the transition times between the medieval warm period (MWP), the little ice age (LIA), and the present-day warm period (PWP) in the NH leads that in the SH; and the anomaly am-plitude in the NH is significantly larger than the SH counterpart. For the precipitation variations, the NH mean precipitation varies in-phase with the SH mean precipitation on decadal and centennial scales (mainly in the mid-high latitudes) but out-of-phase on the interannual scale (mainly in the low latitudes). During the MWP the warming has comparable amplitude in the NH and SH; however, during the PWP the NH warming is considerably stronger than the SH warming. Further, the present-day temperature rises in the NH high latitudes but decreases in the SH high latitudes, which is very different from the warming pattern during the MWP. Since during the MWP the greenhouse gases (GHG) concentration stayed at a low level, we infer that the present-day opposite temperature tendency in the high latitudes between the two hemispheres may be related to the increase of the GHG concentration.

  8. Ocean Observations of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chambers, Don

    2016-01-01

    The ocean influences climate by storing and transporting large amounts of heat, freshwater, and carbon, and exchanging these properties with the atmosphere. About 93% of the excess heat energy stored by the earth over the last 50 years is found in the ocean. More than three quarters of the total exchange of water between the atmosphere and the earth's surface through evaporation and precipitation takes place over the oceans. The ocean contains 50 times more carbon than the atmosphere and is at present acting to slow the rate of climate change by absorbing one quarter of human emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning, cement production, deforestation and other land use change.Here I summarize the observational evidence of change in the ocean, with an emphasis on basin- and global-scale changes relevant to climate. These include: changes in subsurface ocean temperature and heat content, evidence for regional changes in ocean salinity and their link to changes in evaporation and precipitation over the oceans, evidence of variability and change of ocean current patterns relevant to climate, observations of sea level change and predictions over the next century, and biogeochemical changes in the ocean, including ocean acidification.

  9. Changes in Winter Stratospheric Circulation in CMIP5 Scenarios Simulated by the Climate System Model FGOALS-s2

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Rongcai; YANG Yang

    2012-01-01

    Diagnosis of changes in the winter stratospheric circulation in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) scenarios simulated by the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model,second version spectrum (FGOALS-s2),indicates that the model can generally reproduce the present climatology of the stratosphere and can capture the general features of its long-term changes during 1950 2000,including the global stratospheric cooling and the strengthening of the westerly polar jet,though the simulated polar vortex is much cooler,the jet is much stronger,and the projected changes are generally weaker than those revealed by observation data.With the increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) effect in the historical simulation from 1850 to 2005 (called the HISTORICAL run) and the two future projections for Representative Concentration Pathways (called the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) from 2006 to 2100,the stratospheric response was generally steady,with an increasing stratospheric cooling and a strengthening polar jet extending equatorward.Correspondingly,the leading oscillation mode,defined as the Polar Vortex Oscillation (PVO),exhibited a clear positive trend in each scenario,confirming the steady strengthening of the polar vortex.However,the positive trend of the PVO and the strengthening of the polar jet were not accompanied by decreased planetary-wave dynamical heating,suggesting that the cause of the positive PVO trend and the polar stratospheric cooling trend is probably the radiation cooling effect due to increase in GHGs.Nevertheless,without the long-term linear trend,the temporal variations of the wave dynamic heating,the PVO,and the polar stratospheric temperature are still closely coupled in the interannual and decadal time scales.

  10. Simulated long-term climate response to idealized solar geoengineering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Long; Duan, Lei; Bala, Govindasamy; Caldeira, Ken

    2016-03-01

    Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a potential means to counteract anthropogenic climate change, yet it is unknown how such climate intervention might affect the Earth's climate on the millennial time scale. Here we use the HadCM3L model to conduct a 1000 year sunshade geoengineering simulation in which solar irradiance is uniformly reduced by 4% to approximately offset global mean warming from an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. During the 1000 year period, modeled global climate, including temperature, hydrological cycle, and ocean circulation of the high-CO2 simulation departs substantially from that of the control preindustrial simulation, whereas the climate of the geoengineering simulation remains much closer to that of the preindustrial state with little drift. The results of our study do not support the hypothesis that nonlinearities in the climate system would cause substantial drift in the climate system if solar geoengineering was to be deployed on the timescale of a millennium.

  11. Synthetic Scenarios from CMIP5 Model Simulations for Climate Change Impact Assessments in Managed Ecosystems and Water Resources: Case Study in South Asian Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anandhi, A.; Omani, N.; Chaubey, I.; Horton, R.; Bader, D.; Nanjundiah, R. S.

    2017-01-01

    Increasing population, urbanization, and associated demand for food production compounded by climate change and variability have important implications for the managed ecosystems and water resources of a region. This is particularly true for south Asia, which supports one quarter of the global population, half of whom live below the poverty line. This region is largely dependent on monsoon precipitation for water. Given the limited resources of the developing countries in this region, the objective of our study was to empirically explore climate change in south Asia up to the year 2099 using monthly simulations from 35 global climate models (GCMs) participating in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) for two future emission scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and provide a wide range of potential climate change outcomes. This was carried out using a three-step procedure: calculating the mean annual, monsoon, and non-monsoon precipitation and temperatures; estimating the percent change from historical conditions; and developing scenario funnels and synthetic scenarios. This methodology was applied for the entire south Asia region; however, the percent change information generated at 1.5deg grid scale can be used to generate scenarios at finer spatial scales. Our results showed a high variability in the future change in precipitation (-23% to 52%, maximum in the non-monsoon season) and temperature (0.8% to 2.1%) in the region. Temperatures in the region consistently increased, especially in the Himalayan region, which could have impacts including a faster retreat of glaciers and increased floods. It could also change rivers from perennial to seasonal, leading to significant challenges in water management. Increasing temperatures could further stress groundwater reservoirs, leading to withdrawal rates that become even more unsustainable. The high precipitation variability (with higher propensity for

  12. Climate Change in New England | Energy and Global Climate ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-10

    EPA Region 1's Energy and Climate Unit and Oceans and Coastal Unit provide information and technical assistance on climate change impacts and adaptation, resilience and preparedness to climate disruptions

  13. Climate Change Projections for Sri Lanka for the mid-twentieth Century from CMIP5 Simulations under a High Emissions Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zubair, L.; Agalawatte, P.

    2014-12-01

    Under the Agricultural Model Inter-Comparison program (AgMIP), climate change projections for Sri Lanka were undertaken from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) archives for five locations covering Sri Lanka. These datasets were first quality checked after removing questionable data entries. The gaps in data were filled using AgMERRA data set for the specific location developed by Alex Ruane and Sonali McDermid at NASA- GISS after applying the necessary bias corrections. Future climate projections for 2040- 2070 are based on projections for high Carbon Dioxide emissions (RCP8.5). Analysis was undertaken on the outputs of 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs). Observed climate datasets (for the period 1980- 2010) for each location were used to generate downscaled future predictions. Future projections for maximum temperature, minimum temperature and rainfall were generated while holding solar radiation constant and changing the CO2 value up to 499 ppm. Results for 5 GCMs that simulate the monsoon region best were then selected for further analysis. These are CCSM4, GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, MPI-ESM-MR. All 20 GCM outputs predicted that both minimum and maximum temperature shall rise by around 2 ⁰C throughout the year. This result is consistent across all 5 locations and the uncertainty associated with this prediction was observed to be low compared to that of rainfall. In the case of the rainfall, majority (80- 95%) of GCMs predicted an increment in the annual rainfall by around 0.5 mm/day. Rainfall during September- October- November was predicted to have a high increment (around 2- 7 mm/day) and during February- March a decrement of around 1- 2 mm/day was predicted. The uncertainty of this prediction based on outputs of all 20 GCMs were observed to be high. These results are consistent with the Fourth Assessment Report by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change.

  14. Projected Climate Change Impacts on Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najjar, R.; Shortle, J.; Abler, D.; Blumsack, S.; Crane, R.; Kaufman, Z.; McDill, M.; Ready, R.; Rydzik, M.; Wagener, T.; Wardrop, D.; Wilson, T.

    2009-05-01

    We present an assessment of the potential impacts of human-induced climate change on the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, U.S.A. We first assess a suite of 21 global climate models for the state, rating them based on their ability to simulate the climate of Pennsylvania on time scales ranging from submonthly to interannual. The multi-model mean is superior to any individual model. Median projections by late century are 2-4 degrees C warming and 5-10 percent precipitation increases (B1 and A2 scenarios), with larger precipitation increases in winter and spring. Impacts on the commonwealth's aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, forests, energy, outdoor recreation, tourism, and human health, are evaluated. We also examine barriers and opportunities for Pennsylvania created by climate change mitigation. This assessment was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection which, pursuant to the Pennsylvania Climate Change Act, Act 70 of 2008, is required to develop a report on the potential scientific and economic impacts of climate change to Pennsylvania.

  15. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  16. Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chance, Paul; Heward, William L.

    2010-01-01

    In "Climate Change: Meeting the Challenge," we conclude the special section by assuming that you have been persuaded by Thompson's paper or other evidence that global warming is real and poses a threat that must be dealt with, and that for now the only way to deal with it is by changing behavior. Then we ask what you, as behavior analysts, can do…

  17. Health Effects of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... resulting health effects. Extreme weather events due to climate change may cause people to experience geographic displacement, damage to their property, loss of loved ones, and chronic stress—all of which can negatively affect ... change may be associated with staple food shortages, malnutrition, ...

  18. Dislocated interests and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Steven J.; Diffenbaugh, Noah

    2016-06-01

    The predicted effects of climate change on surface temperatures are now emergent and quantifiable. The recent letter by Hansen and Sato (2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 034009) adds to a growing number of studies showing that warming over the past four decades has shifted the distribution of temperatures higher almost everywhere, with the largest relative effects on summer temperatures in developing regions such as Africa, South America, southeast Asia, and the Middle East (e.g., Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011 Clim. Change 107 615-24 Anderson 2011 Clim. Change 108 581; Mahlstein et al 2012 Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L21711). Hansen and Sato emphasize that although these regions are warming disproportionately, their role in causing climate change—measured by cumulative historical CO2 emissions produced—is small compared to the US and Europe, where the relative change in temperatures has been less. This spatial and temporal mismatch of climate change impacts and the burning of fossil fuels is a critical dislocation of interests that, as the authors note, has ‘substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.’ Here, we place Hansen and Sato’s ‘national responsibilities’ into a broader conceptual framework of problematically dislocated interests, and briefly discuss the related challenges for global climate mitigation efforts.

  19. Western water and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris

    2015-12-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northern-most West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent. In this context, four iconic river basins offer glimpses into specific challenges that climate change may bring to the West. The Colorado River is a system in which overuse and growing demands are projected to be even more challenging than climate-change-induced flow reductions. The Rio Grande offers the best example of how climate-change-induced flow declines might sink a major system into permanent drought. The Klamath is currently projected to face the more benign precipitation future, but fisheries and irrigation management may face dire straits due to warming air temperatures, rising irrigation demands, and warming waters in a basin already hobbled by tensions between endangered fisheries

  20. Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Adhikari

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning physics, ranging from simple shear deformation to comprehensive Stokes flow. In glacier retreat scenarios, we find a minimal role of high-order mechanics in glacier evolution, as geometric effects at our site (the presence of an overdeepened bed result in limited horizontal movement of ice (flow speed on the order of a few meters per year. Consequently, high-order and reduced models all predict that Haig Glacier ceases to exist by ca. 2080 under ongoing climate warming. The influence of high-order mechanics is evident, however, in glacier advance scenarios, where ice speeds are greater and ice dynamical effects become more important. Although similar studies on other glaciers are essential to generalize such findings, we advise that high-order mechanics are important and therefore should be considered while modeling the evolution of active glaciers. Reduced model predictions may be adequate for other glaciologic and topographic settings, particularly where flow speeds are low and where mass balance changes dominate over ice dynamics in determining glacier geometry.

  1. Double Exposure: Photographing Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnold, D. P.; Wake, C. P.; Romanow, G. B.

    2008-12-01

    Double Exposure, Photographing Climate Change, is a fine-art photography exhibition that examines climate change through the prism of melting glaciers. The photographs are twinned shots of glaciers, taken in the mid-20th century by world-renowned photographer Brad Washburn, and in the past two years by Boston journalist/photographer David Arnold. Arnold flew in Washburn's aerial "footprints", replicating stunning black and white photographs, and documenting one irreversible aspect of climate change. Double Exposure is art with a purpose. It is designed to educate, alarm and inspire its audiences. Its power lies in its beauty and the shocking changes it has captured through a camera lens. The interpretive text, guided by numerous experts in the fields of glaciology, global warming and geology, helps convey the message that climate change has already forced permanent changes on the face of our planet. The traveling exhibit premiered at Boston's Museum of Science in April and is now criss-crossing the nation. The exhibit covers changes in the 15 glaciers that have been photographed as well as related information about global warming's effect on the planet today.

  2. Western water and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Udall, Bradley; Georgakakos, Aris P.

    2015-01-01

    The western United States is a region long defined by water challenges. Climate change adds to those historical challenges, but does not, for the most part, introduce entirely new challenges; rather climate change is likely to stress water supplies and resources already in many cases stretched to, or beyond, natural limits. Projections are for continued and, likely, increased warming trends across the region, with a near certainty of continuing changes in seasonality of snowmelt and streamflows, and a strong potential for attendant increases in evaporative demands. Projections of future precipitation are less conclusive, although likely the northernmost West will see precipitation increases while the southernmost West sees declines. However, most of the region lies in a broad area where some climate models project precipitation increases while others project declines, so that only increases in precipitation uncertainties can be projected with any confidence. Changes in annual and seasonal hydrographs are likely to challenge water managers, users, and attempts to protect or restore environmental flows, even where annual volumes change little. Other impacts from climate change (e.g., floods and water-quality changes) are poorly understood and will likely be location dependent.

  3. Climate engineering research : A precautionary response to climate change?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.; Fleurke, F.M.

    2013-01-01

    In the face of dire forecasts for anthropogenic climate change, climate engineering is increasingly discussed as a possible additional set of responses to reduce climate change’s threat. These proposals have been controversial, in part because they – like climate change itself – pose uncertain risks

  4. Assessing urban climate change resilience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina

    2016-04-01

    Recent extreme weather events demonstrate that many urban environments are vulnerable to climate change impacts and as a consequence designing systems for future climate seems to be an important parameter in sustainable urban planning. The focus of this research is the development of a theoretical framework to assess climate change resilience in urban environments. The methodological approach used encompasses literature review, detailed analysis, and combination of data, and the development of a series of evaluation criteria, which are further analyzed into a list of measures. The choice of the specific measures is based upon various environmental, urban planning parameters, social, economic and institutional features taking into consideration key vulnerabilities and risk associated with climate change. The selected criteria are further prioritized to incorporate into the evaluation framework the level of importance of different issues towards a climate change resilient city. The framework could support decision making as regards the ability of an urban system to adapt. In addition it gives information on the level of adaptation, outlining barriers to sustainable urban planning and pointing out drivers for action and reaction.

  5. Making Sense of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blichfeldt, Nikolaj Vendelbo

    The thesis is an ethnographic description of a climate change mitigation campaign among retirees in the urban residential community Dongping Lane in central Hangzhou, and an examination of local understandings of connections between everyday life in the community and global climate change...... is conceived as part of wider state-sponsored efforts to foster civilized behavior and a sense of belonging to the residential community among urban citizens in China. The campaigners connect unspectacular everyday consumer practices with climate change and citizenship by showing that among them, making...... health, comfort and convenience. Conceived as pleasurable, easy to approach, and good for the body, low-carbon life comes to be seen as a series of hobby-like activities that residents can engage in as part of their quests for good and meaningful lives in old age. Campaigners engage engage in trans-historical...

  6. Climate change and game theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Peter John

    2011-02-01

    This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely.

  7. Steric Sea Level Change in Twentieth Century Historical Climate Simulation and IPCC-RCP8.5 Scenario Projection: A Comparison of Two Versions of FGOALS Model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DONG Lu; ZHOU Tianjun

    2013-01-01

    To reveal the steric sea level change in 20th century historical climate simulations and future climate change projections under the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario,the results of two versions of LASG/IAP's Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model (FGOALS) are analyzed.Both models reasonably reproduce the mean dynamic sea level features,with a spatial pattern correlation coefficient of 0.97 with the observation.Characteristics of steric sea level changes in the 20th century historical climate simulations and RCP8.5 scenario projections are investigated.The results show that,in the 20th century,negative trends covered most parts of the global ocean.Under the RCP8.5 scenario,global-averaged steric sea level exhibits a pronounced rising trend throughout the 21st century and the general rising trend appears in most parts of the global ocean.The magnitude of the changes in the 21st century is much larger than that in the 20th century.By the year 2100,the global-averaged steric sea level anomaly is 18 cm and 10 cm relative to the year 1850 in the second spectral version of FGOALS (FGOALS-s2) and the second grid-point version of FGOALS (FGOALS-g2),respectively.The separate contribution of the thermosteric and halosteric components from various ocean layers is further evaluated.In the 20th century,the steric sea level changes in FGOALS-s2 (FGOALS-g2) are largely attributed to the thermosteric (halosteric) component relative to the pre-industrial control run.In contrast,in the 21st century,the thermosteric component,mainly from the upper 1000 m,dominates the steric sea level change in both models under the RCP8.5 scenario.In addition,the steric sea level change in the marginal sea of China is attributed to the thermosteric component.

  8. Climate Change: A Regional Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Inter-American Development Bank (IDB); Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC)

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this document is to contribute to the ongoing discussion on climate change in light of the available evidence on the possible channels of transmission of the economic impact of this phenomenon and the results of the latest session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 15), held in Copenhagen from 7 to 18 December 2009. This document has been prepared, at the request of the Government of Mexico, by the Economic Commiss...

  9. [Air quality and climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loft, Steffen

    2009-10-26

    Air quality, health and climate change are closely connected. Ozone depends on temperature and the greenhouse gas methane from cattle and biomass. Pollen presence depends on temperature and CO2. The effect of climate change on particulate air pollution is complex, but the likely net effect is greater health risks. Reduction of greenhouse-gas emissions by reduced livestock production and use of combustion for energy production, transport and heating will also improve air quality. Energy savings in buildings and use of CO2 neutral fuels should not deteriorate indoor and outdoor air quality.

  10. Position Statement On Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    The North Carolina Environmental Justice Network (NCEJN), a coalition of grassroots organizations, developed a statement to explain our environmental justice perspective on climate change to predominantly white environmental groups that seek to partner with us. NCEJN opposes strategies that reduce greenhouse emissions while maintaining or magnifying existing social, economic, and environmental injustices. Wealthy communities that consume a disproportionate share of resources avoid the most severe consequences of their consumption by displacing pollution on communities of color and low income. Therefore, the success of climate change activism depends on building an inclusive movement based on principles of racial, social and economic justice, and self-determination for all people.

  11. Significant anthropogenic-induced changes of climate classes since 1950.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Duo; Wu, Qigang

    2015-08-28

    Anthropogenic forcings have contributed to global and regional warming in the last few decades and likely affected terrestrial precipitation. Here we examine changes in major Köppen climate classes from gridded observed data and their uncertainties due to internal climate variability using control simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5). About 5.7% of the global total land area has shifted toward warmer and drier climate types from 1950-2010, and significant changes include expansion of arid and high-latitude continental climate zones, shrinkage in polar and midlatitude continental climates, poleward shifts in temperate, continental and polar climates, and increasing average elevation of tropical and polar climates. Using CMIP5 multi-model averaged historical simulations forced by observed anthropogenic and natural, or natural only, forcing components, we find that these changes of climate types since 1950 cannot be explained as natural variations but are driven by anthropogenic factors.

  12. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

    2016-09-01

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  13. Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Vicky W Y; Cheung, William W L; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U Rashid

    2016-09-07

    Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries' vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries.

  14. Simulating the Effect of Alternative Climate Change Scenarios on Pollutant Loading Reduction Requirements for Meeting Water Quality Standards Under USEPA's Total Maximum Daily Load Program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A. D.; Alameddine, I.; Anderson, R.; Wolpert, R.; Reckhow, K.

    2008-12-01

    The United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) total maximum daily load (TMDL) program requires that individual states assess the condition of surface waters and identify those which fail to meet ambient water quality standards. Waters failing to meet those standards must have a TMDL assessment conducted to determine the maximum allowable pollutant load which can enter the water without violating water quality standards. While most of the nearly 30,000 TMDL assessments completed since 1995 use mechanistic or empirical water quality models to forecast water quality conditions under alternative pollutant loading reduction scenarios, few, if any, also simulate water quality conditions under alternative climate change scenarios. As a result, model-based loading reduction requirements (which serve as the cornerstone for implementing water resource management plans, and initiating environmental management infrastructure projects), believed to improve water quality in impaired waters and reinstate their designated use, may misrepresent the actual required reduction when future climate change scenarios are considered. For example, recent research indicates a potential long term future increase in both the number of days between, and the intensity of, individual precipitation events. In coastal terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, such climate conditions could lead to an increased accumulation of pollutants on the landscape between precipitation events, followed by a washoff event with a relatively high pollutant load. On the other hand, anticipated increases in average temperature and evaporation rate might not only reduce effective rainfall rates (resulting in less energy for transporting pollutants from the landscape) but also reduce the tidal exchange ratio in shallow estuaries (many of which are valuable recreational, commercial, and aesthetic natural resources). Here, we develop and apply a comprehensive watershed-scale model for simulating water quality in

  15. Case grows for climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hileman, B.

    1999-08-09

    In the four years since the IPCC stated that 'the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate', evidence for anomalous warming has become more compelling, and as a result scientists have become more concerned that human-induced climate change has already arrived. The article summarises recent extra evidence on global temperatures, carbon dioxide measurements, ice shelf breakup, coral bleaching, unstable climates and improved climate models. At the time of the Kyoto conference, the US became keen on the idea that enhancing forest and soil carbon sequestration was a good way to offset emissions reduction targets. Congress is however under the opinion on that the Kyoto protocol presents a threat to the US economy, and senate is very unlikely to ratify the protocol during the Clinton Administration. The debate as to whether the US government should mandate major emission reduction or wait for more scientific certainty may continue for a number of years, but, growing concern of scientists and the public for the harmful effects of climate change may cause a change. 4 figs., 8 photos.

  16. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-12-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  17. Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Jeneva

    2016-08-01

    Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

  18. Changing habits, changing climate : a foundation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Enright, W. [Canadian Inst. of Child Health, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2001-03-01

    If Canada intends to meet its greenhouse gas reduction target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels, a fundamental shift in energy use by Canadians is required. The health sector will also be required to change. Global climate change is expected to affect regions differently, some might get wetter, some might get warmer, and others still might get colder. Climate changes will influence a number of health determinants: the geographical range of disease organisms and vectors; temperature extremes and violent weather events; air, food and water quality; the stability of ecosystems. There is a requirement to strongly regulate the emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases to limit health risks. Increased air pollution could negatively affect large numbers of people, especially asthma sufferers and people suffering from chronic respiratory ailments and cardiovascular diseases. Changes in precipitation and temperature could increase insect-borne diseases. Water sources could be badly affected by drought, flooding or increased glacial runoff. The thinning of the ozone layer could result in additional skin cancers, impaired vision and other diseases. The document explores the various impacts resulting from climate change. A chapter is devoted to each topic: air pollution, temperature extremes, extreme weather events, vector borne diseases, drought and increased evaporation, food supply and ecosystem range, sea level rise, stratospheric ozone depletion and describes the health impacts. In addition, a chapter deals with aboriginal communities. The topic of environmental refugees is discussed, followed by an historical perspective into climate change policy in Canada. The author concludes with adaptation measures. Further emphasis must be placed on priority topics such as the estimation of future emissions and modelling of climate processes. refs., tabs., figs.

  19. Quantifying the role of biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks in climate change: coupled model simulations for 6000 years BP and comparison with palaeodata for northern Eurasia and northern Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Texier, D.; de Noblet, N. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. de Modelisation du Climat et de l`Environnement; Harrison, S.P.; Laarif, F. [Dynamic Palaeoclimatology, Lund University, Box 117, S-221 00 Lund (Sweden); Haxeltine, A. [Physical Geography, Lund University, S-22100 Lund (Sweden); Jolly, D.; Prentice, I.C. [Global Systems Group, Department of Ecology, Ecology Building, S-223 b2 Lund (Sweden); Joussaume, S. [CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Lab. de Modelisation du Climat et de l`Environnement]|[Laboratoire d`Oceanographie Dynamique et de Climatologie, CNRS/ORSTOM/UPCM, Paris (France); Tarasov, P. [Dynamic Palaeoclimatology, Lund University, Box 117, S-221 00 Lund (Sweden)]|[Department of Geography, Moscow State University, 119 899 Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1997-12-01

    The LMD AGCM was iteratively coupled to the global BIOME1 model in order to explore the role of vegetation-climate interactions in response to mid-Holocene (6000 y BP) orbital forcing. The sea-surface temperature and sea-ice distribution used were present-day and CO{sub 2} concentration was preindustrial. The land surface was initially prescribed with present-day vegetation. Initial climate ``anomalies`` (differences between AGCM results for 6000 y BP and control) were used to drive BIOME1; the simulated vegetation was provided to a further AGCM run, and so on. Results after five iterations were compared to the initial results in order to identify vegetation feedbacks. These were centred on regions showing strong initial responses. The orbitally induced high-latitude summer warming, and the intensification and extension of Northern Hemisphere tropical monsoons, were both amplified by vegetation feedbacks. Vegetation feedbacks were smaller than the initial orbital effects for most regions and seasons, but in West Africa the summer precipitation increase more than doubled in response to changes in vegetation. In the last iteration, global tundra area was reduced by 25% and the southern limit of the Sahara desert was shifted 2.5 N north (to 18 N) relative to today. These results were compared with 6000 y BP observational data recording forest-tundra boundary changes in northern Eurasia and savana-desert boundary changes in northern Africa. Although the inclusion of vegetation feedbacks improved the qualitative agreement between the model results and the data, the simulated changes were still insufficient, perhaps due to the lack of ocean-surface feedbacks. (orig.) With 8 figs., 4 tabs., 80 refs.

  20. On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

    2014-12-01

    Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient

  1. Simulating Crop Net Primary Production in China from 2000 to 2050 by Linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS's Model Climate Change Scenario

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Wen; HUANG Yao; SUN Wenjuan; YU Yongqiang

    2007-01-01

    Net primary production (NPP) of crop represents the capacity of sequestrating atmospheric CO2 in agro-ecosystem, and it plays an important role in terrestrial carbon cycling. By linking the Crop-C model with climate change scenario projected by a coupled GCM FGOALS via geographical information system(GIS) techniques, crop NPP in China was simulated from 2000 to 2050. The national averaged surface air temperature from FGOALS is projected to increase by 1.0°C over this period and the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration is 535 ppm by 2050 under the IPCC A1B scenario. With a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km2, model simulation indicated that an annual average increase of 0.6 Tg C yr-1 (Tg=1012g)would be possible under the A1B scenario. The NPP in the late 2040s would increase by 5% (30 Tg C)within the 98×106 hm2 cropland area in contrast with that in the early 2000s. A further investigation suggested that changes in the NPP would not be evenly distributed in China. A higher increase would occur in a majority of regions located in eastern and northwestern China, while a slight reduction would appear in Hebei and Tianjin in northern China. The spatial characteristics of the crop NPP change are attributed primarily to the uneven distribution of temperature change.

  2. Simulating the Impact of Future Land Use and Climate Change on Soil Erosion and Deposition in the Mae Nam Nan Sub-Catchment, Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nitin Kumar Tripathi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the possible impacts of climate change and land use change and its combined effects on soil loss and net soil loss (erosion and deposition in the Mae Nam Nan sub-catchment, Thailand. Future climate from two general circulation models (GCMs and a regional circulation model (RCM consisting of HadCM3, NCAR CSSM3 and PRECIS RCM ware downscaled using a delta change approach. Cellular Automata/Markov (CA_Markov model was used to characterize future land use. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE and sedimentation modeling in Idrisi software were employed to estimate soil loss and net soil loss under direct impact (climate change, indirect impact (land use change and full range of impact (climate and land use change to generate results at a 10 year interval between 2020 and 2040. Results indicate that soil erosion and deposition increase or decrease, depending on which climate and land use scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion and deposition in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods. The combined climate and land use change analysis revealed that land use planning could be adopted to mitigate soil erosion and deposition in the future, in conjunction with the projected direct impact of climate change.

  3. Regional climate simulations over Vietnam using the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raghavan, S. V.; Vu, M. T.; Liong, S. Y.

    2016-10-01

    We present an analysis of the present-day (1961-1990) regional climate simulations over Vietnam. The regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) was driven by the global reanalysis ERA40. The performance of the regional climate model in simulating the observed climate is evaluated with a main focus on precipitation and temperature. The regional climate model was able to reproduce the observed spatial patterns of the climate, although with some biases. The model also performed better in reproducing the extreme precipitation and the interannual variability. Overall, the WRF model was able to simulate the main regional signatures of climate variables, seasonal cycles, and frequency distributions. This study is an evaluation of the present-day climate simulations of a regional climate model at a resolution of 25 km. Given that dynamical downscaling has become common for studying climate change and its impacts, the study highlights that much more improvements in modeling might be necessary to yield realistic simulations of climate at high resolutions before they can be used for impact studies at a local scale. The need for a dense network of observations is also realized as observations at high resolutions are needed when it comes to evaluations and validations of models at sub-regional and local scales.

  4. Arctic climate change in NORKLIMA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    The NORKLIMA programme is the national Norwegian initiative on climate research established for the period 2004-2013. The programme seeks to generate key knowledge about climate trends, the impacts of climate change, and how Norway can adapt to these changes. The NORKLIMA programme also encompasses research on instruments and policies for reducing emissions. Large-scale Programmes As part of the effort to meet national research-policy priorities, the Research Council has established a special funding instrument called the Large-scale Programmes. This initiative is designed to build long-term knowledge in order to encourage innovation and enhance value creation as well as to help find solutions to important challenges facing society.(Author)

  5. Global coupled simulations of climate change due to increased atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration; Simulations couplees globales des changements climatiques associes a une augmentation de la teneur atmospherique en CO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barthelet, P.; Guilyardi, E.; Terray, L.; Thual, O.; Valcke, S. [Cerfacs, 31 - Toulouse (France); Bony, S.; Cohen-Solal, E.; Dufresne, J.L.; Fairhead, L.; Forichon, M.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Le Treut, H.; Xin Li, Z. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 75 - Paris (France). LMD; Braconnot, P.; Marti, O. [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif-sur-Yvette (France). Direction des Sciences de la Matiere. Laboratoire de Modelisation du CLimat et de l`Environnement; Braun, A.; Cariolle, D.; Deque, M.; Marquet, P.; Planton, S. [CNRM, Meteo France, 31 - Toulouse (France); Delecluse, P.; Filiberti, M.A.; Houssais, M.N.; Imbard, M.; Levy, C.; Madec, G. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, 75 - Paris (France). Lodyc, CNRS/UPMC, Orstom

    1998-05-01

    Two transient CO{sub 2} experiments using two coupled general circulation models developed by the French GASTON group have been realized using the same methodology. No flux corrections at the air-sea interface were used in these experiments. The main features of the present climate are reasonably well captured by both coupled models in the control simulations although the biases are not the same. The transient CO{sub 2} simulations show a global warning, ranging between 1. 6 and 2.0 deg.C at the time of CO{sub 2} doubling (+ 70 years). These values, and the main geographical characteristics of climate change, are in agreement with previous studies published by other research group, using either flux corrected or non-flux corrected models. (authors) 23 refs.

  6. Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Adhikari

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Evolution of glaciers in response to climate change has mostly been simulated using simplified dynamical models. Because these models do not account for the influence of high-order physics, corresponding results may exhibit some biases. For Haig Glacier in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, we test this hypothesis by comparing simulation results obtained from 3-D numerical models that deal with different assumptions concerning ice-flow physics, ranging from simple shear-deformation to comprehensive Stokes flow. In glacier retreat scenarios, we find a minimal role of high-order mechanics in glacier evolution, as geometric effects at our site (the presence of an overdeepened bed result in limited horizontal movement of ice (flow speed on the order of a few meters per year. Consequently, high-order and reduced models all predict that Haig Glacier ceases to exist by ca. 2080 under ongoing climate warming. The influence of high-order mechanics is evident, however, in glacier advance scenarios, where ice speeds are greater and ice dynamical effects become more important. To generalize these findings for other glacier applications, we advise that high-order mechanics are important and therefore should be considered while modelling the evolution of active glaciers. Reduced model predictions may, however, be adequate for other glaciologic and topographic settings, particularly where flow speeds are low.

  7. Calibration, uncertainties and use of soybean crop simulation models for evaluating strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change in Southern Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Rafael Battisti

    2016-01-01

    The water deficit is a major factor responsible for the soybean yield gap in Southern Brazil and tends to increase under climate change. Crop models are a tool that differ on levels of complexity and performance and can be used to evaluate strategies to manage crops, according the climate conditions. Based on that, the aims of this study were: to assess five soybean crop models and their ensemble; to evaluate the sensitivity of these models to systematic changes in climate; to assess soybean ...

  8. Time varying arctic climate change amplification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chylek, Petr [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Dubey, Manvendra K [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Lesins, Glen [DALLHOUSIE U; Wang, Muyin [NOAA/JISAO

    2009-01-01

    During the past 130 years the global mean surface air temperature has risen by about 0.75 K. Due to feedbacks -- including the snow/ice albedo feedback -- the warming in the Arctic is expected to proceed at a faster rate than the global average. Climate model simulations suggest that this Arctic amplification produces warming that is two to three times larger than the global mean. Understanding the Arctic amplification is essential for projections of future Arctic climate including sea ice extent and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. We use the temperature records from the Arctic stations to show that (a) the Arctic amplification is larger at latitudes above 700 N compared to those within 64-70oN belt, and that, surprisingly; (b) the ratio of the Arctic to global rate of temperature change is not constant but varies on the decadal timescale. This time dependence will affect future projections of climate changes in the Arctic.

  9. Probabilistic Predictions of Regional Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, G. R.; Sexton, D. M.; Booth, B. B.; Brown, K.; Collins, M.; Murphy, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    We present a methodology for quantifying the leading sources of uncertainty in climate change projections that allows more robust prediction of probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change than is possible, for example, with the multimodel ensemble in the the CMIP3 archive used for the IPCC Fourth Assessment. Uncertainty in equilibrium climate response has been systematically explored by varying uncertain parameters in the atmosphere, sea-ice and surface components in a ensemble of simulations with the third version of the Hadley Centre model coupled to a slab ocean. The ensemble is used to emulate the response for one million parameter combinations, ensuring robust prediction of the prior distributions of equilibrium response for this model. Posterior PDFs are estimated using a weighting scheme that calculates the likelihood for each model version, based upon its ability to reproduce a large set of observed seasonal-mean climate variables. Information from the CMIP3 simulations is used to assess the effect of structural uncertainty, and this is included as an additional variance in the weighting. The posterior distributions of equilibrium response are shown to be relatively robust to variation in key assumptions of the method. A time-scaling technique that maps equilibrium to transient change is then used to predict PDFs for transient regional climate change for specified emissions scenarios. The scaling uses a simple climate model (SCM), with global climate feedbacks and local response sampled from the equilibrium response, and other SCM parameters tuned to the response of other AOGCM ensembles. Use of the SCM allows efficient sampling of uncertainties not fully sampled by expensive GCM simulation, including uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing, the rate of ocean heat uptake, and the strength of carbon-cycle feedbacks. Uncertainties arising from statistical components of the method, such as emulation or scaling, are

  10. The World Climate Exercise: Is (Simulated) Experience Our Best Teacher?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rath, K.; Rooney-varga, J. N.; Jones, A.; Johnston, E.; Sterman, J.

    2015-12-01

    Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a

  11. Climate Change Modelling and Its Roles to Chinese Crops Yield

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JU Hui; LIN Er-da; Tim Wheeler; Andrew Challinor; JIANG Shuai

    2013-01-01

    Climate has been changing in the last fifty years in China and will continue to change regardless any efforts for mitigation. Agriculture is a climate-dependent activity and highly sensitive to climate changes and climate variability. Understanding the interactions between climate change and agricultural production is essential for society stable development of China. The first mission is to fully understand how to predict future climate and link it with agriculture production system. In this paper, recent studies both domestic and international are reviewed in order to provide an overall image of the progress in climate change researches. The methods for climate change scenarios construction are introduced. The pivotal techniques linking crop model and climate models are systematically assessed and climate change impacts on Chinese crops yield among model results are summarized. The study found that simulated productions of grain crop inherit uncertainty from using different climate models, emission scenarios and the crops simulation models. Moreover, studies have different spatial resolutions, and methods for general circulation model (GCM) downscaling which increase the uncertainty for regional impacts assessment. However, the magnitude of change in crop production due to climate change (at 700 ppm CO2 eq correct) appears within ±10%for China in these assessments. In most literatures, the three cereal crop yields showed decline under climate change scenarios and only wheat in some region showed increase. Finally, the paper points out several gaps in current researches which need more studies to shorten the distance for objective recognizing the impacts of climate change on crops. The uncertainty for crop yield projection is associated with climate change scenarios, CO2 fertilization effects and adaptation options. Therefore, more studies on the fields such as free air CO2 enrichment experiment and practical adaptations implemented need to be carried out.

  12. A Lesson on Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Jim

    This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

  13. Hydrological response to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yan, Dan; Werners, S.E.; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing

    2015-01-01

    Study region: The Pearl River, located in the south of China, is the second largest river in China in terms of streamflow. Study focus: The study aims to assess the impact of climate change on seasonal discharge and extreme flows. For the assessment we use the variable infiltration capacity (VIC)

  14. Students' evaluations about climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Doug; Brandt, Carol B.; Bickel, Elliot S.; Burg, Colin

    2016-05-01

    Scientists regularly evaluate alternative explanations of phenomena and solutions to problems. Students should similarly engage in critical evaluation when learning about scientific and engineering topics. However, students do not often demonstrate sophisticated evaluation skills in the classroom. The purpose of the present study was to investigate middle school students' evaluations when confronted with alternative explanations of the complex and controversial topic of climate change. Through a qualitative analysis, we determined that students demonstrated four distinct categories of evaluation when writing about the connections between evidence and alternative explanations of climate change: (a) erroneous evaluation, (b) descriptive evaluation, (c) relational evaluation, and (d) critical evaluation. These categories represent different types of evaluation quality. A quantitative analysis revealed that types of evaluation, along with plausibility perceptions about the alternative explanations, were significant predictors of postinstructional knowledge about scientific principles underlying the climate change phenomenon. Specifically, more robust evaluations and greater plausibility toward the scientifically accepted model of human-induced climate change predicted greater knowledge. These findings demonstrate that instruction promoting critical evaluation and plausibility appraisal may promote greater understanding of socio-scientific topics and increased use of scientific thinking when considering alternative explanations, as is called for by recent science education reform efforts.

  15. Climate change, zoonoses and India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, B B; Sharma, R; Gill, J P S; Aulakh, R S; Banga, H S

    2011-12-01

    Economic trends have shaped our growth and the growth of the livestock sector, but atthe expense of altering natural resources and systems in ways that are not always obvious. Now, however, the reverse is beginning to happen, i.e. environmental trends are beginning to shape our economy and health status. In addition to water, air and food, animals and birds play a pivotal role in the maintenance and transmission of important zoonotic diseases in nature. It is generally considered that the prevalence of vector-borne and waterborne zoonoses is likely to increase in the coming years due to the effects of global warming in India. In recent years, vector-borne diseases have emerged as a serious public health problem in countries of the South-East Asia region, including India. Vector-borne zoonoses now occur in epidemic form almost on an annual basis, causing considerable morbidity and mortality. New reservoir areas of cutaneous leishmaniosis in South India have been recognised, and the role of climate change in its re-emergence warrants further research, as does the role of climate change in the ascendancy of waterborne and foodborne illness. Similarly, climate change that leads to warmer and more humid conditions may increase the risk of transmission of airborne zoonoses, and hot and drier conditions may lead to a decline in the incidence of disease(s). The prevalence of these zoonotic diseases and their vectors and the effect of climate change on important zoonoses in India are discussed in this review.

  16. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy…

  17. The Science of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppenheimer, Michael; Anttila-Hughes, Jesse K.

    2016-01-01

    Michael Oppenheimer and Jesse Anttila-Hughes begin with a primer on how the greenhouse effect works, how we know that Earth is rapidly getting warmer, and how we know that the recent warming is caused by human activity. They explain the sources of scientific knowledge about climate change as well as the basis for the models scientists use to…

  18. Indigenous Peoples and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelton H. Davis

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available There has been a growing attention on the need to take into account the effects of global climate change. This is particularly so with respect to the increasing amount of green house gas emissions from the Untied States and Europe affecting poor peoples, especially those in developing countries. In 2003, for example, the experts of several international development agencies, including the World Bank, prepared a special report titled “Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation” (OECD 2003. This report followed the Eighth Session of the Conference of Parties (COP8 to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC in New Delhi, India in October 2002. It showed that poverty reduction is not only one of the major challenges of the 21st century, but also that climate change is taking place in many developing countries and is increasingly affecting, in a negative fashion, both the economic conditions and the health of poor people and their communities.

  19. The Whiteness of Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars

    2011-01-01

    This article examines two major debates in contemporary Australian discourses on the nation: climate change and whiteness studies. It is primarily concerned with establishing a framework for connecting the two discourses, and in that process it raises pivotal questions about how narratives about...

  20. Climate Change: Evidence and Causes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolff, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The fundamentals of climate change are well established: greenhouse gases warm the planet; their concentrations in the atmosphere are increasing; Earth has warmed, and is going to continue warming with a range of impacts. This article summarises the contents of a recent publication issued by the UK's Royal Society and the US National Academy of…

  1. Climate change and trace gases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker; Russell, Gary; Lea, David W; Siddall, Mark

    2007-07-15

    Palaeoclimate data show that the Earth's climate is remarkably sensitive to global forcings. Positive feedbacks predominate. This allows the entire planet to be whipsawed between climate states. One feedback, the 'albedo flip' property of ice/water, provides a powerful trigger mechanism. A climate forcing that 'flips' the albedo of a sufficient portion of an ice sheet can spark a cataclysm. Inertia of ice sheet and ocean provides only moderate delay to ice sheet disintegration and a burst of added global warming. Recent greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions place the Earth perilously close to dramatic climate change that could run out of our control, with great dangers for humans and other creatures. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the largest human-made climate forcing, but other trace constituents are also important. Only intense simultaneous efforts to slow CO2 emissions and reduce non-CO2 forcings can keep climate within or near the range of the past million years. The most important of the non-CO2 forcings is methane (CH4), as it causes the second largest human-made GHG climate forcing and is the principal cause of increased tropospheric ozone (O3), which is the third largest GHG forcing. Nitrous oxide (N2O) should also be a focus of climate mitigation efforts. Black carbon ('black soot') has a high global warming potential (approx. 2000, 500 and 200 for 20, 100 and 500 years, respectively) and deserves greater attention. Some forcings are especially effective at high latitudes, so concerted efforts to reduce their emissions could preserve Arctic ice, while also having major benefits for human health, agricultural productivity and the global environment.

  2. Employing Inquiry-Based Computer Simulations and Embedded Scientist Videos to Teach Challenging Climate Change and Nature of Science Concepts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Edward Charles

    2013-01-01

    Design based research was utilized to investigate how students use a greenhouse effect simulation in order to derive best learning practices. During this process, students recognized the authentic scientific process involving computer simulations. The simulation used is embedded within an inquiry-based technology-mediated science curriculum known…

  3. Changing Climates @ Colorado State: 100 (Multidisciplinary) Views of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, S.; Calderazzo, J.; Changing Climates, Cmmap Education; Diversity Team

    2011-12-01

    We would like to talk about a multidisciplinary education and outreach program we co-direct at Colorado State University, with support from an NSF-funded STC, CMMAP, the Center for Multiscale Modeling of Atmospheric Processes. We are working to raise public literacy about climate change by providing information that is high quality, up to date, thoroughly multidisciplinary, and easy for non-specialists to understand. Our primary audiences are college-level students, their teachers, and the general public. Our motto is Climate Change is Everybody's Business. To encourage and help our faculty infuse climate-change content into their courses, we have organized some 115 talks given by as many different speakers-speakers drawn from 28 academic departments, all 8 colleges at CSU, and numerous other entities from campus, the community, and farther afield. We began with a faculty-teaching-faculty series and then broadened our attentions to the whole campus and surrounding community. Some talks have been for narrowly focused audiences such as extension agents who work on energy, but most are for more eclectic groups of students, staff, faculty, and citizens. We count heads at most events, and our current total is roughly 6,000. We have created a website (http://changingclimates.colostate.edu) that includes videotapes of many of these talks, short videos we have created, and annotated sources that we judge to be accurate, interesting, clearly written, and aimed at non-specialists, including books, articles and essays, websites, and a few items specifically for college teachers (such as syllabi). Pages of the website focus on such topics as how the climate works / how it changes; what's happening / what might happen; natural ecosystems; agriculture; impacts on people; responses from ethics, art, literature; communication; daily life; policy; energy; and-pulling all the pieces together-the big picture. We have begun working on a new series of very short videos that can be

  4. The importance of equilibration in glacial climate simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandefelt, Jenny; Kjellström, Erik; Näslund, Jens-Ove; Strandberg, Gustav; Voelker, Antje; Wohlfarth, Barbara

    2010-05-01

    Last Glacial Maximum (21 000 yrs BP; LGM) and Greenland Stadial 12 (44 000 yrs BP; GS12) climate has been simulated with the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3). Although the simulations were initiated from simulated glacial climates, both simulations required 1500 years of additional integration to reach equilibrium under the imposed boundary conditions and forcings. The annual global mean surface temperature changes by only 0.1oC during the last 1000 years of the 1500 year long GS12 simulation. Despite this small global change the slow equilibration is important for the simulated regional climate. The corresponding change in the annual mean surface air temperature in the North Atlantic region is more than 3oC with a maximum of 8oC in south-eastern Greenland. This regional change is coupled to a decrease of the sea ice extent in the North Atlantic region. Both climates are compared to available proxy data of sea surface temperature (SST). The simulated SST changes by up to 2oC in the North Atlantic region during the last 1000 years of the GS12 integration which leads to a better agreement with proxy data. Simulated LGM SSTs are colder than the proxy data but show similar spatial patterns. Simulated GS12 SSTs are in better agreement with the available proxy data.

  5. Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline M. Ross

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

  6. The role of organic soil layer on the fate of Siberian larch forest and near-surface permafrost under changing climate: A simulation study

    Science.gov (United States)

    SATO, H.; Iwahana, G.; Ohta, T.

    2013-12-01

    Siberian larch forest is the largest coniferous forest region in the world. In this vast region, larch often forms nearly pure stands, regenerated by recurrent fire. This region is characterized by a short and dry growing season; the annual mean precipitation for Yakutsk was only about 240 mm. To maintain forest ecosystem under such small precipitation, underlying permafrost and seasonal soil freezing-thawing-cycle have been supposed to play important roles; (1) frozen ground inhibits percolation of soil water into deep soil layers, and (2) excess soil water at the end of growing season can be carried over until the next growing season as ice, and larch trees can use the melt water. As a proof for this explanation, geographical distribution of Siberian larch region highly coincides with continuous and discontinuous permafrost zone. Recent observations and simulation studies suggests that existences of larch forest and permafrost in subsurface layer are co-dependent; permafrost maintains the larch forest by enhancing water use efficiency of trees, while larch forest maintains permafrost by inhibiting solar radiation and preventing heat exchanges between soil and atmosphere. Owing to such complexity and absence of enough ecosystem data available, current-generation Earth System Models significantly diverse in their prediction of structure and key ecosystem functions in Siberian larch forest under changing climate. Such uncertainty should in turn expand uncertainty over predictions of climate, because Siberian larch forest should have major role in the global carbon balance with its huge area and vast potential carbon pool within the biomass and soil, and changes in boreal forest albedo can have a considerable effect on Northern Hemisphere climate. In this study, we developed an integrated ecosystem model, which treats interactions between plant-dynamics and freeze-thaw cycles. This integrated model contains a dynamic global vegetation model SEIB-DGVM, which simulates

  7. Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melillo, Jerry M. [Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA (United States)

    2014-04-30

    The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and consideration of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.

  8. Climate change and the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dettinger, Michael; Anderson, Jamie; Anderson, Michael L.; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Maurer, Edwin P.

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic climate change amounts to a rapidly approaching, “new” stressor in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta system. In response to California’s extreme natural hydroclimatic variability, complex water-management systems have been developed, even as the Delta’s natural ecosystems have been largely devastated. Climate change is projected to challenge these management and ecological systems in different ways that are characterized by different levels of uncertainty. For example, there is high certainty that climate will warm by about 2°C more (than late-20th-century averages) by mid-century and about 4°C by end of century, if greenhouse-gas emissions continue their current rates of acceleration. Future precipitation changes are much less certain, with as many climate models projecting wetter conditions as drier. However, the same projections agree that precipitation will be more intense when storms do arrive, even as more dry days will separate storms. Warmer temperatures will likely enhance evaporative demands and raise water temperatures. Consequently, climate change is projected to yield both more extreme flood risks and greater drought risks. Sea level rise (SLR) during the 20th century was about 22cm, and is projected to increase by at least 3-fold this century. SLR together with land subsidence threatens the Delta with greater vulnerabilities to inundation and salinity intrusion. Effects on the Delta ecosystem that are traceable to warming include SLR, reduced snowpack, earlier snowmelt and larger storm-driven streamflows, warmer and longer summers, warmer summer water temperatures, and water-quality changes. These changes and their uncertainties will challenge the operations of water projects and uses throughout the Delta’s watershed and delivery areas. Although the effects of climate change on Delta ecosystems may be profound, the end results are difficult to predict, except that native species will fare worse than invaders. Successful

  9. Simulating the evolution of Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in southern Norway since the mid-Holocene and its sensitivity to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Åkesson, Henning; Nisancioglu, Kerim H.; Giesen, Rianne H.; Morlighem, Mathieu

    2017-01-01

    Understanding of long-term dynamics of glaciers and ice caps is vital to assess their recent and future changes, yet few long-term reconstructions using ice flow models exist. Here we present simulations of the maritime Hardangerjøkulen ice cap in Norway from the mid-Holocene through the Little Ice Age (LIA) to the present day, using a numerical ice flow model combined with glacier and climate reconstructions. In our simulation, under a linear climate forcing, we find that Hardangerjøkulen grows from ice-free conditions in the mid-Holocene to its maximum extent during the LIA in a nonlinear, spatially asynchronous fashion. During its fastest stage of growth (2300-1300 BP), the ice cap triples its volume in less than 1000 years. The modeled ice cap extent and outlet glacier length changes from the LIA until today agree well with available observations. Volume and area for Hardangerjøkulen and several of its outlet glaciers vary out-of-phase for several centuries during the Holocene. This volume-area disequilibrium varies in time and from one outlet glacier to the next, illustrating that linear relations between ice extent, volume and glacier proxy records, as generally used in paleoclimatic reconstructions, have only limited validity. We also show that the present-day ice cap is highly sensitive to surface mass balance changes and that the effect of the ice cap hypsometry on the mass balance-altitude feedback is essential to this sensitivity. A mass balance shift by +0.5 m w.e. relative to the mass balance from the last decades almost doubles ice volume, while a decrease of 0.2 m w.e. or more induces a strong mass balance-altitude feedback and makes Hardangerjøkulen disappear entirely. Furthermore, once disappeared, an additional +0.1 m w.e. relative to the present mass balance is needed to regrow the ice cap to its present-day extent. We expect that other ice caps with comparable geometry in, for example, Norway, Iceland, Patagonia and peripheral Greenland may

  10. Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierce, David W.; Barnett, Tim P.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Gleckler, Peter J.

    2009-01-01

    Regional or local climate change modeling studies currently require starting with a global climate model, then downscaling to the region of interest. How should global models be chosen for such studies, and what effect do such choices have? This question is addressed in the context of a regional climate detection and attribution (D&A) study of January-February-March (JFM) temperature over the western U.S. Models are often selected for a regional D&A analysis based on the quality of the simulated regional climate. Accordingly, 42 performance metrics based on seasonal temperature and precipitation, the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are constructed and applied to 21 global models. However, no strong relationship is found between the score of the models on the metrics and results of the D&A analysis. Instead, the importance of having ensembles of runs with enough realizations to reduce the effects of natural internal climate variability is emphasized. Also, the superiority of the multimodel ensemble average (MM) to any 1 individual model, already found in global studies examining the mean climate, is true in this regional study that includes measures of variability as well. Evidence is shown that this superiority is largely caused by the cancellation of offsetting errors in the individual global models. Results with both the MM and models picked randomly confirm the original D&A results of anthropogenically forced JFM temperature changes in the western U.S. Future projections of temperature do not depend on model performance until the 2080s, after which the better performing models show warmer temperatures. PMID:19439652

  11. A common-sense climate index: is climate changing noticeably?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Glascoe, J.; Ruedy, R.

    1998-01-01

    We propose an index of climate change based on practical climate indicators such as heating degree days and the frequency of intense precipitation. We find that in most regions the index is positive, the sense predicted to accompany global warming. In a few regions, especially in Asia and western North America, the index indicates that climate change should be apparent already, but in most places climate trends are too small to stand out above year-to-year variability. The climate index is strongly correlated with global surface temperature, which has increased as rapidly as projected by climate models in the 1980s. We argue that the global area with obvious climate change will increase notably in the next few years. But we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has declined in recent years, and thus there is an opportunity to keep climate change in the 21st century less than "business-as-usual" scenarios.

  12. Improving leadership on climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chandani, Achala

    2011-03-15

    The upcoming UN conference on climate change in Durban, South Africa throws a spotlight on African climate policy. As part of a knowledge-sharing initiative in Southern Africa, we assessed parliamentarians' needs for more information on climate threats and responses, and ways to improve their capabilities as key stakeholders influencing national and global decisionmaking. Funded by the UK Foreign and Commonwealth Office and partnered with the Association of European Parliamentarians with Africa (AWEPA), IIED worked with parliamentarians in the Southern Africa Customs Union (SACU) — Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland — through interviews, literature surveys, field trips and workshops. Similar studies in Malawi and Scotland also fed into this project.

  13. Transatlantic flight times and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Paul

    2016-04-01

    Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence (Williams and Joshi 2013) and increased take-off weight restrictions. A forthcoming study (Williams 2016) investigates the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. This is achieved by feeding synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. The focus is on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. It is found that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5h 20m and over 7h 00m, respectively. The early stages of this effect perhaps contributed to a well-publicised British Airways flight from New York to London on 8 January 2015, which took a record time of only 5h 16m because of a strong tailwind from an unusually fast jet stream. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft may collectively be airborne for an extra 2,000 hours each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide. These findings provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change. References Williams PD (2016) Transatlantic flight times and climate change. Environmental Research Letters, in

  14. Asia's changing role in global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Toufiq A

    2008-10-01

    Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

  15. Climate Change and Civil Violence

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Vink, G.; Plancherel, Y.; Hennet, C.; Jones, K. D.; Abdullah, A.; Bradshaw, J.; Dee, S.; Deprez, A.; Pasenello, M.; Plaza-Jennings, E.; Roseman, D.; Sopher, P.; Sung, E.

    2009-05-01

    The manifestations of climate change can result in humanitarian impacts that reverse progress in poverty- reduction, create shortages of food and resources, lead to migration, and ultimately result in civil violence and conflict. Within the continent of Africa, we have found that environmentally-related variables are either the cause or the confounding factor for over 80% of the civil violence events during the last 10 years. Using predictive climate models and land-use data, we are able to identify populations in Africa that are likely to experience the most severe climate-related shocks. Through geospatial analysis, we are able to overlay these areas of high risk with assessments of both the local population's resiliency and the region's capacity to respond to climate shocks should they occur. The net result of the analysis is the identification of locations that are becoming particularly vulnerable to future civil violence events (vulnerability hotspots) as a result of the manifestations of climate change. For each population group, over 600 social, economic, political, and environmental indicators are integrated statistically to measures the vulnerability of African populations to environmental change. The indicator time-series are filtered for data availability and redundancy, broadly ordered into four categories (social, political, economic and environmental), standardized and normalized. Within each category, the dominant modes of variability are isolated by principal component analysis and the loadings of each component for each variable are used to devise composite index scores. Comparisons of past vulnerability with known environmentally-related conflicts demonstrates the role that such vulnerability hotspot maps can play in evaluating both the potential for, and the significance of, environmentally-related civil violence events. Furthermore, the analysis reveals the major variables that are responsible for the population's vulnerability and therefore

  16. Changes in Dimethyl Sulfide Oceanic Distribution due to Climate Change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cameron-Smith, P; Elliott, S; Maltrud, M; Erickson, D; Wingenter, O

    2011-02-16

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is one of the major precursors for aerosols and cloud condensation nuclei in the marine boundary layer over much of the remote ocean. Here they report on coupled climate simulations with a state-of-the-art global ocean biogeochemical model for DMS distribution and fluxes using present-day and future atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations. They find changes in zonal averaged DMS flux to the atmosphere of over 150% in the Southern Ocean. This is due to concurrent sea ice changes and ocean ecosystem composition shifts caused by changes in temperature, mixing, nutrient, and light regimes. The largest changes occur in a region already sensitive to climate change, so any resultant local CLAW/Gaia feedback of DMS on clouds, and thus radiative forcing, will be particularly important. A comparison of these results to prior studies shows that increasing model complexity is associted with reduced DMS emissions at the equator and increased emissions at high latitudes.

  17. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  18. From Bray-Curtis ordination to Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation: assessing anthropogenically-induced and/or climatically-induced changes in arboreal ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madurapperuma, Buddhika Dilhan

    Mapping forest resources is useful for identifying threat patterns and monitoring changes associated with landscapes. Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Science techniques are effective tools used to identify and forecast forest resource threats such as exotic plant invasion, vulnerability to climate change, and land-use/cover change. This research focused on mapping abundance and distribution of Russian-olive using soil and land-use/cover data, evaluating historic land-use/cover change using mappable water-related indices addressing the primary loss of riparian arboreal ecosystems, and detecting year-to-year land-cover changes on forest conversion processes. Digital image processing techniques were used to detect the changes of arboreal ecosystems using ArcGIS ArcInfoRTM 9.3, ENVIRTM, and ENVIRTM EX platforms. Research results showed that Russian-olive at the inundated habitats of the Missouri River is abundant compared to terrestrial habitats in the Bismarck-Mandan Wildland Urban Interface. This could be a consequence of habitat quality of the floodplain, such as its silt loam and silty clay soil type, which favors Russian-olive regeneration. Russian-olive has close assemblage with cottonwood (Populus deltoides) and buffaloberry (Shepherdia argentea) trees at the lower elevations. In addition, the Russian-olive-cottonwood association correlated with low nitrogen, low pH, and high Fe, while Russian-olive- buffaloberry association occurred in highly eroded areas. The Devils Lake sub-watershed was selected to demonstrate how both land-use/cover modification and climatic variability have caused the vulnerability of arboreal ecosystems on the fringe to such changes. Land-cover change showed that the forest acreage declined from 9% to 1%, water extent increased from 13% to 25%, and cropland extent increased from 34% to 39% between 1992 and 2006. In addition, stochastic modeling was adapted to simulate how land-use/cover change influenced forest conversion to non

  19. Climatic change due to land surface alterations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Franchito, S.H.; Rao, V.B.

    1992-01-01

    A primitive equations global zonally averaged climate model is developed. The model includes biofeedback mechanisms. For the Northern Hemisphere the parameterization of biofeedback mechanisms is similar to that used by Gutman et al. For the Southern Hemisphere new parameterizations are derived. The model simulates reasonably well the mean annual zonally averaged climate and geobotanic zones. Deforestation, desertification, and irrigation experiments are performed. In the case of deforestation and desertification there is a reduction in the surface net radiation, evaporation, and precipitation and an increase in the surface temperature. In the case of irrigation experiment opposite changes occurred. In all the cases considered the changes in evapotranspiration overcome the effect of surface albedo modification. In all the experiments changes are smaller in the Southern Hemisphere.

  20. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation

    CERN Document Server

    Seiner, John; Suzuki, Toshio; Lackner, Maximilian

    2012-01-01

    There is a mounting consensus that human behavior is changing the global climate and its consequence could be catastrophic. Reducing the 24 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions from stationary and mobile sources is a gigantic task involving both technological challenges and monumental financial and societal costs. The pursuit of sustainable energy resources, environment, and economy has become a complex issue of global scale that affects the daily life of every citizen of the world. The present mitigation activities range from energy conservation, carbon-neutral energy conversions, carbon advanced combustion process that produce no greenhouse gases and that enable carbon capture and sequestion, to other advanced technologies. From its causes and impacts to its solutions, the issues surrounding climate change involve multidisciplinary science and technology. This handbook will provide a single source of this information. The book will be divided into the following sections: Scientific Evidence of Cl...

  1. Modelling Hydrological Consequences of Climate Change-Progress and Challenges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2005-01-01

    The simulation of hydrological consequences of climate change has received increasing attention from the hydrology and land-surface modelling communities. There have been many studies of climate-change effects on hydrology and water resources which usually consist of three steps: (1) use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide future global climate scenarios under the effect of increasing greenhouse gases,(2) use of downscaling techniques (both nested regional climate models, RCMs, and statistical methods)for "downscaling" the GCM output to the scales compatible with hydrological models, and (3) use of hydrologic models to simulate the effects of climate change on hydrological regimes at various scales.Great progress has been achieved in all three steps during the past few years, however, large uncertainties still exist in every stage of such study. This paper first reviews the present achievements in this field and then discusses the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change.

  2. Simulation of streamflows and basin-wide hydrologic variables over several climate-change scenarios, Methow River basin, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Frank D.; Mastin, Mark C.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this project was to demonstrate the capabilities of an existing watershed model and downscaling procedures to provide simulated hydrological data over various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for use in the Methow River framework prototype. An existing watershed model was used to simulate daily time series of streamflow and basin-wide hydrologic variables for baseline conditions (1990–2000), and then for all combinations of three greenhouse gas emission scenarios and five general circulation models for future conditions (2008–2095). Input data for 18 precipitation and 17 temperature model input sites were generated using statistical techniques to downscale general circulation model data. The simulated results were averaged using an 11-year moving window to characterize the central year of the window to provide simulated data for water years 2008–2095.

  3. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Overview of Climate Change Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukovsky, M. S.; Mearns, L. O.

    2012-04-01

    NARCCAP is an international program that is serving the climate scenario needs of the United States, Canada, and northern Mexico. We are systematically investigating the uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate and producing high resolution climate change scenarios using six different regional climate models (RCMs ) and multiple global model responses to a future emission scenario, by nesting the RCMs within four atmosphere ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) forced with the A2 SRES scenario, over a domain covering the conterminous US, northern Mexico, and most of Canada. The project also includes a validation component through nesting the participating RCMs within NCEP reanalyses. The spatial resolution of the RCM simulations is 50 km. This program includes RCMs that participated in the European PRUDENCE program (HadRM3 and RegCM), the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) as well as the NCEP regional spectral model (RSM), the NCAR/PSU MM5, and NCAR WRF. AOGCMs include the Hadley Centre HadCM3, NCAR CCSM, the Canadian CGCM3 and the GFDL model. Insufficient funding was available to simulate all 24 combinations of RCMs and AOGCMs. Thus, we used a balanced fractional factorial statistical design to reduce the number of combinations of RCM-AOGCM pairs to twelve. High resolution (50 km) global time-slice experiments based on the GFDL atmospheric model and the NCAR atmospheric model (CAM3) have also been produced and will be compared with the simulations of the regional models. The geographic domain was regionalized into 29 subregions based on common climatological features, and summary climate change statistics for each of the subregions have been produced. In this overview talk, results from the RCM climate change simulations for select subregions of North America will be presented.

  4. Challenges and Possibilities in Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneau,, Diane; Khattabi, Abdellatif; Demers, Melanie

    2010-01-01

    Educating and communicating about climate change is challenging. Researchers reported that climate change concepts are often misunderstood. Some people do not believe that climate change will have impacts on their own life. Other challenges may include people's difficulty in perceiving small or gradual environmental changes, the fact that…

  5. Teaching Climate Change Through Music

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, P. S.

    2007-12-01

    During 2006, Peter Weiss aka "The Singing Scientist" performed many music assemblies for elementary schools (K-5) in Santa Cruz County, California, USA. These assemblies were an opportunity for him to mix a discussion of climate change with rock n' roll. In one song called "Greenhouse Glasses", Peter and his band the "Earth Rangers" wear over-sized clown glasses with "molecules" hanging off them (made with Styrofoam balls and pipe cleaners). Each molecule is the real molecular structure of a greenhouse gas, and the song explains how when the wearer of these glasses looks up in the sky, he/she can see the "greenhouse gases floating by." "I've seen more of them this year than the last / 'Cuz fossil fuels are burning fast / I wish everyone could see through these frames / Then maybe we could prevent climate change" Students sing, dance and get a visual picture of something that is invisible, yet is part of a very real problem. This performance description is used as an example of an educational style that can reach a wide audience and provide a framework for the audience as learners to assimilate future information on climate change. The hypothesis is that complex socio-environmental issues like climate change that must be taught in order to achieve sustainability are best done so through alternative mediums like music. Students develop awareness which leads to knowledge about chemistry, physics, and biology. These kinds of experiences which connect science learning to fun activities and community building are seriously lacking in primary and secondary schools and are a big reason why science illiteracy is a current social problem. Science education is also paired with community awareness (including the local plant/animal community) and cooperation. The Singing Scientist attempts to create a culture where it is cool to care about the environment. Students end up gardening in school gardens together and think about their "ecological footprint".

  6. Complexity in Climate Change Manipulation Experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kreyling, Juergen; Beier, Claus

    2014-01-01

    Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now, precipi...... variability in temperature are ecologically important. Embracing complexity in future climate change experiments in general is therefore crucial.......Climate change goes beyond gradual changes in mean conditions. It involves increased variability in climatic drivers and increased frequency and intensity of extreme events. Climate manipulation experiments are one major tool to explore the ecological impacts of climate change. Until now......, precipitation experiments have dealt with temporal variability or extreme events, such as drought, resulting in a multitude of approaches and scenarios with limited comparability among studies. Temperature manipulations have mainly been focused only on warming, resulting in better comparability among studies...

  7. Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

    2015-01-01

    Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

  8. NASA Nice Climate Change Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frink, K.; Crocker, S.; Jones, W., III; Marshall, S. S.; Anuradha, D.; Stewart-Gurley, K.; Howard, E. M.; Hill, E.; Merriweather, E.

    2013-12-01

    Authors: 1 Kaiem Frink, 4 Sherry Crocker, 5 Willie Jones, III, 7 Sophia S.L. Marshall, 6 Anuadha Dujari 3 Ervin Howard 1 Kalota Stewart-Gurley 8 Edwinta Merriweathe Affiliation: 1. Mathematics & Computer Science, Virginia Union University, Richmond, VA, United States. 2. Mathematics & Computer Science, Elizabeth City State Univ, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 3. Education, Elizabeth City State University, Elizabeth City, NC, United States. 4. College of Education, Fort Valley State University , Fort Valley, GA, United States. 5. Education, Tougaloo College, Jackson, MS, United States. 6. Mathematics, Delaware State University, Dover, DE, United States. 7. Education, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, United States. 8. Education, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Huntsville, AL, United States. ABSTRACT: In this research initiative, the 2013-2014 NASA NICE workshop participants will present best educational practices for incorporating climate change pedagogy. The presentation will identify strategies to enhance instruction of pre-service teachers to aligned with K-12 Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) standards. The presentation of best practices should serve as a direct indicator to address pedagogical needs to include climate education within a K-12 curriculum Some of the strategies will include inquiry, direct instructions, and cooperative learning . At this particular workshop, we have learned about global climate change in regards to how this is going to impact our life. Participants have been charged to increase the scientific understanding of pre-service teachers education programs nationally to incorporate climate education lessons. These recommended practices will provide feasible instructional strategies that can be easily implemented and used to clarify possible misconceptions and ambiguities in scientific knowledge. Additionally, the presentation will promote an awareness to the many facets in which climate

  9. Climate change mitigation in Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mackenzie, G.A.; Turkson, J.K.; Davidson, O.R. [eds.

    1998-10-01

    The UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment (UCCEE) in conjunction with the Southern Centre for Energy and Environment (SCEE) hosted a conference on `Climate Change Mitigation in Africa` between 18 and 20 May. The Conference set out to address the following main objectives: to present to a wider audience the results of UNEP/GEF and related country studies; to present results of regional mitigation analysis; exchange of information with similar projects in the region; to expose countries to conceptual and methodological issues related to climate change mitigation; to provide input to national development using climate change related objectives. This volume contains reports of the presentations and discussions, which took place at the conference at Victoria Falls between 18 and 20 May 1998. Representatives of 11 country teams made presentations and in addition two sub-regions were discussed: the Maghreb region and SADC. The conference was attended by a total of 63 people, representing 22 African countries as well as international organisations. (EG)

  10. Climate Change: a Theoretical Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Ishaq-ur Rahman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate Change has been undoubtedly the most illustrious environmental issue since late 20th century. But neither the discourse merely emerged during that time, nor it was problematized in the same way since its onset. History of Climate Change discourse reveals that from a purely scientific concern it has turned into a public agenda that is nowadays more inclined to be development problem. Transformations have brought about a complete new paradigm every time. This article presents a theoretical analysis of the Climate Change discourse and to do so it captured the underlying philosophy of the issue using Thomas Kuhn’s well-known thesis of ‘paradigm shift’. In particular it discusses about the crisis that lead the issue towards transformations; explores key perspectives around the crisis thus representation of the issue in the environmental discourse over the time. While this paper establishes that with the beginning of the 21st century, the discourse entered into a new paradigm and will reach to a critical point by the end of 2012, it finally postulates some measures that the discourse might integrate with the existing to advance beyond that point.

  11. Past and Current Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercedes Rodríguez Ruibal, Ma

    2014-05-01

    In 1837 the Swiss geologist and palaeontologist Louis Agassiz was the first scientist to propose the existence of an ice age in the Earth's past. Nearly two centuries after discussing global glacial periods... while the average global temperature is rising very quickly because of our economic and industrial model. In tribute to these pioneers, we have selected a major climate change of the past as the Snowball Earth and, through various activities in the classroom, compared to the current anthropogenic climate change. First, we include multiple geological processes that led to a global glaciation 750 million years ago as the decrease in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases such as CO2 and CH4, the effect of climate variations in solar radiation due to emissions of volcanic dust and orbital changes (Milankovitch cycles), being an essential part of this model the feedback mechanism of the albedo of the ice on a geological scale. Moreover, from simple experiments and studies in the classroom this time we can compare the past with the current anthropogenic global warming we are experiencing and some of its consequences, highlighting that affect sea level rise, increased extreme and effects on health and the biosphere weather.

  12. Costing the impact of climate change on tourism in Europe: results of the PESETA project. Climatic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amelung, B.; Moreno, A.

    2012-01-01

    Climate change might lead to large shifts in tourist flows, with large economic implications. This article simulates the effect of future climate change by the 2080s on outdoor international tourism expenditure within Europe. The assessment is based on the statistical relationship between bed nights

  13. Climate Change Projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mearns, L. O.; Sain, Steve; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Bukovsky, M. S.; McGinnis, Seth; Biner, S.; Caya, Daniel; Arritt, R.; Gutowski, William; Takle, Eugene S.; Snyder, Mark A.; Jones, Richard; Nunes, A M B.; Tucker, S.; Herzmann, D.; McDaniel, Larry; Sloan, Lisa

    2013-10-01

    We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.

  14. Constraining Transient Climate Sensitivity Using Coupled Climate Model Simulations of Volcanic Eruptions

    KAUST Repository

    Merlis, Timothy M.

    2014-10-01

    Coupled climate model simulations of volcanic eruptions and abrupt changes in CO2 concentration are compared in multiple realizations of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1). The change in global-mean surface temperature (GMST) is analyzed to determine whether a fast component of the climate sensitivity of relevance to the transient climate response (TCR; defined with the 1%yr-1 CO2-increase scenario) can be estimated from shorter-time-scale climate changes. The fast component of the climate sensitivity estimated from the response of the climate model to volcanic forcing is similar to that of the simulations forced by abrupt CO2 changes but is 5%-15% smaller than the TCR. In addition, the partition between the top-of-atmosphere radiative restoring and ocean heat uptake is similar across radiative forcing agents. The possible asymmetry between warming and cooling climate perturbations, which may affect the utility of volcanic eruptions for estimating the TCR, is assessed by comparing simulations of abrupt CO2 doubling to abrupt CO2 halving. There is slightly less (~5%) GMST change in 0.5 × CO2 simulations than in 2 × CO2 simulations on the short (~10 yr) time scales relevant to the fast component of the volcanic signal. However, inferring the TCR from volcanic eruptions is more sensitive to uncertainties from internal climate variability and the estimation procedure. The response of the GMST to volcanic eruptions is similar in GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL Climate Model, version 3 (CM3), even though the latter has a higher TCR associated with a multidecadal time scale in its response. This is consistent with the expectation that the fast component of the climate sensitivity inferred from volcanic eruptions is a lower bound for the TCR.

  15. Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

    2015-12-01

    As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

  16. Climate change unlikely to increase malaria burden in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, Teresa K.; Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

    2016-11-01

    The impact of climate change on malaria transmission has been hotly debated. Recent conclusions have been drawn using relatively simple biological models and statistical approaches, with inconsistent predictions. Consequently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) echoes this uncertainty, with no clear guidance for the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission, yet recognizing a strong association between local climate and malaria. Here, we present results from a decade-long study involving field observations and a sophisticated model simulating village-scale transmission. We drive the malaria model using select climate models that correctly reproduce historical West African climate, and project reduced malaria burden in a western sub-region and insignificant impact in an eastern sub-region. Projected impacts of climate change on malaria transmission in this region are not of serious concern.

  17. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such effort...

  18. Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberle, Robert M.; Owen, Sandra J.

    2012-11-01

    Mars Recent Climate Change Workshop NASA/Ames Research Center May 15-17, 2012 Climate change on Mars has been a subject of great interest to planetary scientists since the 1970's when orbiting spacecraft first discovered fluvial landforms on its ancient surfaces and layered terrains in its polar regions. By far most of the attention has been directed toward understanding how "Early Mars" (i.e., Mars >~3.5 Gya) could have produced environmental conditions favorable for the flow of liquid water on its surface. Unfortunately, in spite of the considerable body of work performed on this subject, no clear consensus has emerged on the nature of the early Martian climate system because of the difficulty in distinguishing between competing ideas given the ambiguities in the available geological, mineralogical, and isotopic records. For several reasons, however, the situation is more tractable for "Recent Mars" (i.e., Mars during past 20 My or so). First, the geologic record is better preserved and evidence for climate change on this time scale has been building since the rejuvenation of the Mars Exploration Program in the late 1990's. The increasing coverage of the planet from orbit and the surface, coupled with accurate measurements of surface topography, increasing spatial resolution of imaging cameras, improved spectral resolution of infrared sensors, and the ability to probe the subsurface with radar, gamma rays, and neutron spectroscopy, has not only improved the characterization of previously known climate features such as polar layered terrains and glacier-related landforms, but has also revealed the existence of many new features related to recent climate change such as polygons, gullies, concentric crater fill, and a latitude dependent mantle. Second, the likely cause of climate change - spin axis/orbital variations - is more pronounced on Mars compared to Earth. Spin axis/orbital variations alter the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of sunlight, which can

  19. A coupled climate model simulation of Marine Isotope Stage 3 stadial climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Brandefelt

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a coupled global climate model (CGCM simulation, integrated for 1500 years to quasi-equilibrium, of a stadial (cold period within Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3. The simulated Greenland stadial 12 (GS12; ~44 ka BP annual global mean surface temperature (Ts is 5.5 °C higher than in the simulated recent past (RP climate and 1.3 °C lower than in the simulated Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 21 ka BP climate. The simulated GS12 climate is evaluated against proxy data of sea surface temperature (SST. Simulated SSTs fall within the uncertainty range of the proxy SSTs for 30–50% of the sites depending on season. Proxy SSTs are higher than simulated SSTs in the Central North Atlantic, in contrast to earlier simulations of MIS 3 stadial climate in which proxy SSTs were found to be lower than simulated SST. The annual global mean Ts only changes by 0.10 °C from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation, indicating that the climate system may be close to equilibrium already after 500 years of integration. However, significant regional differences between the last century of the simulation and model years 500–599, with a maximum of 8 °C in temperature and 65% in precipitation in Southeastern Greenland in boreal winter, exist. Further, the agreement between simulated and proxy SST is improved from model years 500–599 to the last century of the simulation. El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO teleconnections in mean sea level pressure (MSLP are analysed for the last 300 years of the GS12, LGM and RP climate simulations. In agreement with an earlier study, we find that GS12 and LGM forcing and boundary conditions induce major modifications to ENSO teleconnections. However, significant differences in the teleconnection patterns are found between a 300-year time-slice starting after 195 model years and the last 300 years of the simulation. Thus we conclude that both the mean state and the

  20. Simulation Modeling of Lakes in Undergraduate and Graduate Classrooms Increases Comprehension of Climate Change Concepts and Experience with Computational Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Cayelan C.; Gougis, Rebekka Darner

    2017-01-01

    Ecosystem modeling is a critically important tool for environmental scientists, yet is rarely taught in undergraduate and graduate classrooms. To address this gap, we developed a teaching module that exposes students to a suite of modeling skills and tools (including computer programming, numerical simulation modeling, and distributed computing)…

  1. The use of CMIP5 data to simulate climate change impacts on flow regime within the Lake Champlain Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Nourein Mohammed

    2015-03-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: Our analyses suggest that most of CMIP5 ensembles fail to capture both the trends and variability observed in historical precipitation when run in hindcast. This raises concerns of using such products in driving hydrologic models for the purpose of obtaining reliable runoff projections that can aid researchers in regional planning. A subset of five climate models among the CMIP5 ensembles have shown statistically significant trends in precipitation, but the magnitude of these trends is not adequately representative of those seen in observed annual precipitation. Adjusted precipitation forecasts project a streamflow regime described by an increase of about 30% in seven-day maximum flow, a four days increase in flooded days, a three orders of magnitude increase in base flow index, and a 60% increase in runoff predictability (Colwell index.

  2. Climate change effects on forests: A critical review

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loehle, C. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); LeBlanc, D. [Ball State Univ., Muncie, IN (United States). Dept. of Biology

    1996-02-01

    While current projections of future climate change associated with increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases have a high degree of uncertainty, the potential effects of climate change on forests are of increasing concern. A number of studies based on forest simulation models predict substantial temperatures associated with increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, the structure of these computer models may cause them to overemphasize the role of climate in controlling tree growth and mortality. We propose that forest simulation models be reformulated with more realistic representations of growth responses to temperature, moisture, mortality, and dispersal. We believe that only when these models more accurately reflect the physiological bases of the responses of tree species to climate variables can they be used to simulate responses of forests to rapid changes in climate. We argue that direct forest responses to climate change projected by such a reformulated model may be less traumatic and more gradual than those projected by current models. However, the indirect effects of climate change on forests, mediated by alterations of disturbance regimes or the actions of pests and pathogens, may accelerate climate-induced change in forests, and they deserve further study and inclusion within forest simulation models.

  3. The science of climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Doctor, R. D.

    1999-09-10

    A complex debate is underway on climate change linked to proposals for costly measures that would reshape our power grid. This confronts technical experts outside of the geophysical disciplines with extensive, but unfamiliar, data both supporting and refuting claims that serious action is warranted. For example, evidence is brought to the table from one group of astrophysicists concerned with sunspots--this group believes there is no issue man can manage; while another group of oceanographers concerned with the heat balance in the world's oceans are very alarmed at the loss of arctic ice. What is the evidence? In an effort to put some of these issues in perspective for a technical audience, without a background in geophysics, a brief survey will consider (1) an overview of the 300 years of scientific inquiry on man's relationship to climate; (2) a basic discussion of what is meant by the ''greenhouse'' and why there are concerns which include not only CO{sub 2}, but also CH{sub 4}, N{sub 2}O, and CFC's; (3) the geological record on CO{sub 2}--which likely was present at 1,000 times current levels when life began; (4) the solar luminosity and sunspot question; and (5) the current evidence for global climate change. We are at a juncture where we are attempting to understand the earth as an integrated dynamic system, rather than a collection of isolated components.

  4. Hydrological responses to climate change in Mt. Elgon watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Musau

    2015-03-01

    New Hydrological Insights for the Region: Comparison between the simulated baseline and future streamflow shows that in the Koitobos and Kimilili watersheds, August to December streamflow is likely to be highly altered. In the Kuywa watershed, March to June flows is likely to change considerably due to climate change. Major streamflow changes are likely in March to June and August to November in the Rongai watershed. Projected changes differed between the four watersheds despite their proximity, indicating different sensitivities to climate change and uncertainty about the potential hydrological impacts of climate change in the area.

  5. Forest Policies Addressing Climate Change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    As a developing country with a large population and a fragile ecological environment, China is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Beginning with the Rio Conference of 1992 China has played a progressively enhanced role in combating climate change. A series of policies and measures to address climate change have been taken in the overall context of national sustainable development strategy, making positive contributions to the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, among ...

  6. Changes in continental Europe water cycle in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rouholahnejad, Elham; Schirmer, Mario; Abbaspour, Karim

    2015-04-01

    Changes in atmospheric water vapor content provide strong evidence that the water cycle is already responding to a warming climate. According to IPCC's last report on Climate Change (AR5), the water cycle is expected to intensify in a warmer climate as the atmosphere can hold more water vapor. This changes the frequency of precipitation extremes, increases evaporation and dry periods, and effects the water redistribution in land. This process is represented by most global climate models (GCMs) by increased summer dryness and winter wetness over large areas of continental mid to high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, associated with a reduction in water availability at continental scale. Observing changes in precipitation and evaporation directly and at continental scale is difficult, because most of the exchange of fresh water between the atmosphere and the surface happens the oceans. Long term precipitation records are available only from over the land and there are no measurement of evaporation or redistribution of precipitation over the land area. On the other hand, understanding the extent of climate change effects on various components of the water cycle is of strategic importance for public, private sectors, and policy makers when it comes to fresh water management. In order to better understand the extent of climate change impacts on water resources of continental Europe, we developed a distributed hydrological model of Europe at high spatial and temporal resolution using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The hydrological model was calibrated for 1970 to 2006 using daily observation of streamflow and nitrate loads from 360 gauging stations across Europe. A vegetation growth routine was added to the model to better simulate evapotranspiration. The model results were calibrated with available agricultural crop yield data from other sources. As of future climate scenarios, we used the ISI-MIP project results which provides bias-corrected climate

  7. Maize leaf development under climate change scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nereu Augusto Streck

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to simulate maize leaf development in climate change scenarios at Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, considering symmetric and asymmetric increases in air temperature. The model of Wang & Engel for leaf appearance rate (LAR, with genotype-specific coefficients for the maize variety BRS Missões, was used to simulate tip and expanded leaf accumulated number from emergence to flag leaf appearance and expansion, for nine emergence dates from August 15 to April 15. LAR model was run for each emergence date in 100-year climate scenarios: current climate, and +1, +2, +3, +4 and +5°C increase in mean air temperature, with symmetric and asymmetric increase in daily minimum and maximum air temperature. Maize crop failure due to frost decreased in elevated temperature scenarios, in the very early and very late emergence dates, indicating a lengthening in the maize growing season in warmer climates. The leaf development period in maize was shorter in elevated temperature scenarios, with greater shortening in asymmetric temperature increases, indicating that warmer nights accelerate vegetative development in maize.

  8. Simulating the impact of climate change on the groundwater resources of the Magdalen Islands, Québec, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Michel Lemieux

    2015-03-01

    New hydrological insights for the region: The simulation results show that among the three impacts considered, the most important is sea-level rise, followed by decreasing groundwater recharge and coastal erosion. When combined, these impacts cause the saltwater–freshwater interface to migrate inland over a distance of 37 m and to rise by 6.5 m near the coast to 3.1 m further inland, over a 28-year period.

  9. Simulating the impacts of future land use and climate changes on surface water quality in the Des Plaines River watershed, Chicago Metropolitan Statistical Area, Illinois.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Cyril O; Weng, Qihao

    2011-09-15

    Modeling the effects of past and current land use composition and climatic patterns on surface water quality provides valuable information for environmental and land planning. This study predicts the future impacts of urban land use and climate changes on surface water quality within Des Plaines River watershed, Illinois, between 2010 and 2030. Land Change Modeler (LCM) was used to characterize three future land use/planning scenarios. Each scenario encourages low density residential growth, normal urban growth, and commercial growth, respectively. Future climate patterns examined include the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) B1 and A1B groups. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was employed to estimate total suspended solids and phosphorus concentration generated at a 10 year interval. The predicted results indicate that for a large portion of the watershed, the concentration of total suspended solids (TSS) would be higher under B1 and A1B climate scenarios during late winter and early spring compared to the same period in 2010; while the summer period largely demonstrates a reverse trend. Model results further suggest that by 2020, phosphorus concentration would be higher during the summer under B1 climate scenario compared to 2010, and is expected to wane by 2030. The projected phosphorus concentrations during the late winter and early spring periods vary across climate and land use scenarios. The analysis also denotes that middle and high density residential development can reduce excess TSS concentration, while the establishment of dense commercial and industrial development might help ameliorate high phosphorus levels. The combined land use and climate change analysis revealed land use development schemes that can be adopted to mitigate potential future water quality impairment. This research provides important insights into possible adverse consequences on surface water quality and resources

  10. Risk Communication, Moral Emotions and Climate Change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, Sabine

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt

  11. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  12. Climate Change Ignorance: An Unacceptable Legacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boon, Helen J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change effects will be most acutely felt by future generations. Recent prior research has shown that school students' knowledge of climate change science is very limited in rural Australia. The purpose of this study was to assess the capacity of preservice teachers and parents to transmit climate change information and understanding to…

  13. Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

  14. Probabilistic projections of transient climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Glen R.; Sexton, David M. H.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Collins, Mat; Murphy, James M.

    2013-06-01

    This paper describes a Bayesian methodology for prediction of multivariate probability distribution functions (PDFs) for transient regional climate change. The approach is based upon PDFs for the equilibrium response to doubled carbon dioxide, derived from a comprehensive sampling of uncertainties in modelling of surface and atmospheric processes, and constrained by multiannual mean observations of recent climate. These PDFs are sampled and scaled by global mean temperature predicted by a Simple Climate Model (SCM), in order to emulate corresponding transient responses. The sampled projections are then reweighted, based upon the likelihood that they correctly replicate observed historical changes in surface temperature, and combined to provide PDFs for 20 year averages of regional temperature and precipitation changes to the end of the twenty-first century, for the A1B emissions scenario. The PDFs also account for modelling uncertainties associated with aerosol forcing, ocean heat uptake and the terrestrial carbon cycle, sampled using SCM configurations calibrated to the response of perturbed physics ensembles generated using the Hadley Centre climate model HadCM3, and other international climate model simulations. Weighting the projections using observational metrics of recent mean climate is found to be as effective at constraining the future transient response as metrics based on historical trends. The spread in global temperature response due to modelling uncertainty in the carbon cycle feedbacks is determined to be about 65-80 % of the spread arising from uncertainties in modelling atmospheric, oceanic and aerosol processes of the climate system. Early twenty-first century aerosol forcing is found to be extremely unlikely to be less than -1.7 W m-2. Our technique provides a rigorous and formal method of combining several lines of evidence used in the previous IPCC expert assessment of the Transient Climate Response. The 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles of our

  15. Climatic change and river ice breakup

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beltaos, S. [Environment Canada, National Water Research Institute, Burlington, ON (Canada); Burrell, B. C. [New Brunswick Dept. of the Environment and Local Government, Sciences and Planning Division, Fredericton, NB (Canada)

    2003-07-01

    An overview of climatic factors and impact relative to river ice engineering and science is presented. An explanation of the fundamentals of climatic change is followed by a review of direct and indirect climatic influences that govern river ice breakup and related trends. Known responses of river ice to climatic change and potential future changes to ice breakup processes are described along with the probable ecological and socio-economic consequences of these changes. Changes in engineering approaches to accommodate the present ice regime and predicted changes in climatic variables that affect river ice processes and reduce the vulnerability of infrastructure and ecosystems to climatic change are examined. Future research on the links between river ice and stream ecology is suggested to identify ecological concerns that may result from changes in river ice regimes induced by climatic change. 60 refs., 3 figs.

  16. Climate change science compendium 2009

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMullen, C.P.; Jabbour, J.

    2009-09-15

    In a matter of a few weeks' time, governments will gather in Copenhagen, Denmark, for a crucial UN climate convention meeting. Many governments and stakeholders have requested an annual snapshot of how the science has been evolving since the publication of the IPCC's landmark fourth assessment in advance of the panel's next one in 2014. This Climate Change Science Compendium, based on the wealth of peerreviewed research published by researchers and institutions since 2006, has been compiled by UNEP in response to that request. The findings indicate that ever more rapid environmental change is underway with the pace and the scale of climate change accelerating, along with the confidence among researchers in their forecasts. The Arctic, with implications for the globe, is emerging as an area of major concern. There is growing evidence that the ice there is melting far faster than had been previously supposed. Mountains glaciers also appear to be retreating faster. Scientists now suggest that the Arctic could be virtually ice free in September of 2037 and that a nearly ice-free September by 2028 is well within the realms of possibility. Recent findings also show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. The impact on the Earth's multi-trillion dollar ecosystems is also a key area of concern. Under a high emission scenario-the one that most closely matches current trends-12-39 per cent of the planet's terrestrial surface could experience novel climate conditions and 10-48 per cent could suffer disappearing climates by 2100. Rising levels of aridity are also concentrating scientific minds. New research indicates that by the end of the 21st century the Mediterranean region will also experience much more severe increases in aridity than previously estimated rendering the entire region, but particularly the southern Mediterranean

  17. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  18. Tropical deforestation and climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ebeling, J.

    2006-08-15

    This dissertation evaluates recent proposals to include tropical deforestation into international climate change mitigation strategies. Deforestation is responsible for up to 25 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The research aim here is to evaluate implications of a range of policy options for the environmental effectiveness of a prospective agreement, as well as for its political and economic attractiveness for different countries and stakeholders. A literature review, 48 key stakeholder interviews, analyses of submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), modelling approaches and statistical analyses were carried out to answer these questions. On this basis the study identifies potential deal breakers and explores possible solutions to existing 'real' and perceived obstacles. Findings suggest that, given sufficient political will, an effective agreement between current UNFCCC Parties is feasible and that existing concerns can be addressed in pragmatic ways. Among the different policy alternatives, creating a new carbon trading mechanism under a post-2012 Kyoto regime is likely to deliver greatest economic and environmental benefits. Measuring emission reductions against national-level baselines based on historical base periods would increase the environmental integrity of resulting carbon credits. The study also finds that potential monetary benefits are distributed very unevenly between potential host countries, and that this may partly explain current negotiation positions. Complementary approaches, not based on emission trading, may have to be developed to foster broader support for an agreement. Finally, setting more ambitious emission reduction targets for industrialised countries would overcome concerns about 'flooding' of carbon markets, and would make the most of a unique opportunity to tackle both climate change and deforestation.

  19. Future changes in climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling simulated for a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario until year 4000 AD

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmittner, Andreas; Oschlies, Andreas; Matthews, H. Damon; Galbraith, Eric D.

    2008-03-01

    A new model of global climate, ocean circulation, ecosystems, and biogeochemical cycling, including a fully coupled carbon cycle, is presented and evaluated. The model is consistent with multiple observational data sets from the past 50 years as well as with the observed warming of global surface air and sea temperatures during the last 150 years. It is applied to a simulation of the coming two millennia following a business-as-usual scenario of anthropogenic CO2 emissions (SRES A2 until year 2100 and subsequent linear decrease to zero until year 2300, corresponding to a total release of 5100 GtC). Atmospheric CO2 increases to a peak of more than 2000 ppmv near year 2300 (that is an airborne fraction of 72% of the emissions) followed by a gradual decline to ˜1700 ppmv at year 4000 (airborne fraction of 56%). Forty-four percent of the additional atmospheric CO2 at year 4000 is due to positive carbon cycle-climate feedbacks. Global surface air warms by ˜10°C, sea ice melts back to 10% of its current area, and the circulation of the abyssal ocean collapses. Subsurface oxygen concentrations decrease, tripling the volume of suboxic water and quadrupling the global water column denitrification. We estimate 60 ppb increase in atmospheric N2O concentrations owing to doubling of its oceanic production, leading to a weak positive feedback and contributing about 0.24°C warming at year 4000. Global ocean primary production almost doubles by year 4000. Planktonic biomass increases at high latitudes and in the subtropics whereas it decreases at midlatitudes and in the tropics. In our model, which does not account for possible direct impacts of acidification on ocean biology, production of calcium carbonate in the surface ocean doubles, further increasing surface ocean and atmospheric pCO2. This represents a new positive feedback mechanism and leads to a strengthening of the positive interaction between climate change and the carbon cycle on a multicentennial to millennial

  20. Climate change effects for phenological processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilla Dede

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change may shift dates of phenological phase of plants. We can even demonstrate changes in plant growth due to climate change by model simulations. Earth warming will accelerate appearance of the phenological phases earlier. However, not only temperature can affect on that, but some other meteorological factors as well.The theoretical implications of climate change is the main goal of the present work using strategic modeling and a 140 years long temperature data set. Analysis of the Geophyton Phenology Database of the ELTE Botanical Garden is also made for 24 meteorological factors’ effect on the first bud appearance, the beginning of flowering, and the end of flowering. The found regression models show the relationships between phenological phase’ dates and meteorological factors.Finally, the rising temperatures are variously influencing phenological dates of selected species involved a Theoretical ecosístem. The daily fluctuation of temperature and the frosty day number are strongly influence geophyton plants and their pheonological phase’ dates.

  1. Regional climate change mitigation analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rowlands, Ian H. [UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment, and Univ. of Waterloo (Canada)

    1998-10-01

    The purpose of this paper is to explore some of the key methodological issues that arise from an analysis of regional climate change mitigation options. The rationale for any analysis of regional mitigation activities, emphasising both the theoretical attractiveness and the existing political encouragement and the methodology that has been developed are reviewed. The differences arising from the fact that mitigation analyses have been taken from the level of the national - where the majority of the work has been completed to date - to the level of the international - that is, the `regional` - will be especially highlighted. (EG)

  2. Renewable energy and climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Quaschning, Volker

    2010-01-01

    This dazzling introductory textbook encompasses the full range of today's important renewable energy technologies. Solar thermal, photovoltaic, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal energy receive balanced treatment with one exciting and informative chapter devoted to each. As well as a complete overview of these state-of-the-art technologies, the chapters provide: clear analysis on their development potentials; an evaluation of the economic aspects involved; concrete guidance for practical implementation; how to reduce your own energy waste. If we do not act now to stop climate change, the cons.

  3. Virgin's Knight tackles climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banks, Michael

    2008-11-01

    "There is no greater or more immediate challenge than that posed by climate change," said Sir Richard Branson, chairman of the Virgin group, via video-link at the 59th International Astronautical Congress (IAC) held in Glasgow in the UK at the end of September. That grand statement may seem like a lot of hot air for the entrepreneur best known for his attempt to circumnavigate the globe by balloon. But Branson went on to reveal that Virgin Galactic, which aims to fly passengers 100 km into space for 200 000 per trip, will also provide room on its craft for a series of scientific experiments to study the Earth's atmosphere.

  4. A history of climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hastrup, Kirsten Blinkenberg

    2017-01-01

    they were first described and became known to outsiders, it is shown how flexibility and mobility were always preconditions for survival in this environment. Then, they were trapped in too much ice, while now they have to negotiate a rapidly melting environment. In both cases their response is deeply......This article presents a small community of High Arctic hunters (the Inughuit in North West Greenland) who have always had to negotiate climatic changes with great impact on their living conditions. This points us toward the natural-social entanglements implied in the notion of the Anthropocene...

  5. India's National Action Plan on Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Pandve, Harshal T.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change is one of the most critical global challenges of our times. Recent events have emphatically demonstrated our growing vulnerability to climate change. Climate change impacts will range from affecting agriculture – further endangering food security – to sea-level rise and the accelerated erosion of coastal zones, increasing intensity of natural disasters, species extinction, and the spread of vector-borne diseases. India released its much-awaited National Action Plan on Climate C...

  6. Climate Change and Corporate Environmental Responsibility

    OpenAIRE

    Dewan Mahboob HOSSAIN; Chowdhury, M. Jahangir Alam

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, as an international environmental issue, is getting a lot of attention. The negative effects of climate change have become one of the most talked about issues among Governments, scientists, environmentalists and others. It is said that business activities are affecting the climate negatively. In order to minimize the negative effects of climate change, the activities of the businesses should be controlled and encouraged to perform in a socially responsible manner. The article ...

  7. The challenges of communicating climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emiliano Feresin

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The climate change issue has become increasingly present in our society in the last decade and central also to communication studies. In the e-book “Communicating Climate Change: Discourses, Mediations and Perceptions”, edited by Anabela Carvalho, various scholars investigate how climate change challenges communication by looking at three main aspects: the discourses of a variety of social actors on climate change; the reconstruction of those discourses in the media; the citizens’ perceptions, understandings and attitudes in relation to climate change.

  8. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  9. Soil Moisture-Ecosystem-Climate Interactions in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Teuling, A.

    2011-12-01

    Soil moisture is a key variable of the climate system. It constrains plant transpiration and photosynthesis in several regions of the world, with consequent impacts on the water, energy and biogeochemical cycles (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2010). Moreover it is a storage component for precipitation and radiation anomalies, inducing persistence in the climate system. Finally, it is involved in a number of feedbacks at the local, regional and global scales, and plays a major role in climate-change projections. This presentation will provide an overview on these interactions, based on several recent publications (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2010, Teuling et al. 2010, Hirschi et al. 2011). In particular, it will highlight possible impacts of soil moisture-ecosystem coupling for climate extremes such as heat waves and droughts, and the resulting interconnections between biophysical and biogeochemical feedbacks in the context of climate change. Finally, it will also address recent regional- to global-scale trends in land hydrology and ecosystem functioning, as well as issues and potential avenues for investigating these trends (e.g. Jung et al. 2010, Mueller et al. 2011). References Hirschi, M., S.I. Seneviratne, V. Alexandrov, F. Boberg, C. Boroneant, O.B. Christensen, H. Formayer, B. Orlowsky, and P. Stepanek, 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geoscience, 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Jung, M., et al., 2010: Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature, 467, 951-954. doi:10.1038/nature09396 Mueller, B., S.I. Seneviratne, et al.: Evaluation of global observations-based evapotranspiration datasets and IPCC AR4 simulations, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L06402, doi:10.1029/2010GL046230 Orlowsky, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2010: Statistical analyses of land-atmosphere feedbacks and their possible pitfalls. J. Climate, 23(14), 3918

  10. Spatial precision vs large scale uncertainties in climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubrovsky, M.; Potuznikova, K.

    2009-04-01

    In assessing climate change impacts on various weather dependent processes, weather series representing changed climate are required as an input to the impact models (for example crop growth models). In producing these series, the weather generator (WG) is often employed: WG parameters are derived from the observed series and then modified using the climate change scenario, which defines changes in the relevant climatic characteristics. These scenarios use to be derived either from GCM or RCM simulations. An advantage of using RCMs (with respect to using GCMs) consists in higher spatial resolution of simulated processes and thereby in higher spatial precision of RCM-based climate change scenario. On the other hand, advantage of using GCM-based scenarios consists in larger number of available GCM simulations, which allows to better account for the uncertainty in larger-scale patterns of climate change. This contribution aims to contribute to the discussion on the usefulness of RCMs in developing the climate change scenarios. To show the significancy of high resolution RCM based spatial signal in changes in relevant climatic characteristics, this signal will be compared with the uncertainty in GCM-simulated larger scale patterns of change. The former RCM-based signal will be derived from the RCM simulations made for the PRUDENCE project, the latter GCM based uncertainty will be based on simulations from a larger number of GCMs. The results will be shown in terms of maps for a whole Europe. Acknowledgements: The study is supported by 6th FP EU research project CECILIA (no GOCE 037005) and GAAV grant agency (project IAA300420806 - "PRASCE").

  11. Validation of two high‐resolution climate simulations over Scandinavia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mayer, Stephanie; Maule, Cathrine Fox; Sobolowski, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Before running climate projections with numerical models it is important to validate their performance under present climate conditions. Within the RiskChange project two high‐resolution regional climate models were run as a perfect boundary experiment over Scandinavia. The simulations are valida......Before running climate projections with numerical models it is important to validate their performance under present climate conditions. Within the RiskChange project two high‐resolution regional climate models were run as a perfect boundary experiment over Scandinavia. The simulations...... are validated with respect to timing, location and intensity of extreme events. The main objective of the RiskChange project (www.riskchange.dhigroup.com) is to establish a consistent scientifically‐based framework for risk‐based design using state‐of‐the‐art knowledge of future changes in climate extreme...... statistics. Very high resolution is required in impact models that are employed to address particular societal needs and risks in terms of adaptation to future climate challenges, (e.g. future storm surge protection of coastlines and low‐level lands or drainage systems in urban areas). The purpose...

  12. Challenges and solutions for climate change

    CERN Document Server

    Gaast, Wytze

    2012-01-01

    The latest scientific knowledge on climate change indicates that higher greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through unchecked emissions will provoke severe climate change and ocean acidification threatening environmental structures on which humanity relies. Climate change therefore poses major socio-economic, technical and environmental challenges which will have serious impacts on countries’ pathways towards sustainable development. As a result, climate change and sustainable development have increasingly become interlinked. A changing climate makes achieving Millennium Development Goals more difficult and expensive, so there is every reason to achieve development goals with low greenhouse gas emissions. This leads to the following five challenges discussed by Challenges and Solutions for Climate Change: To place climate negotiations in the wider context of sustainability, equity and social change so that development benefits can be maximised at the same time as decreasing greenhouse gas emissi...

  13. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.

    2009-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...... on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing...

  14. Simulation modelling and risk assessment as tools to identify the impact of climate change on microbiological food safety – The case study of fresh produce supply chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jacxsens, L.; Luning, P.A.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.; Devlieghere, F.; Leemans, R.; Uyttendaele, M.

    2010-01-01

    The current quality assurance and control tools and methods to prevent and/or to control microbiological risks associated with fresh produce are challenged due to the following pressures upon the food supply chain, i.e. changing consumption patterns, globalization and climate change. It demonstrates

  15. [Climate change and Kyoto protocol].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ergasti, G; Pippia, V; Murzilli, G; De Luca D'Alessandro, E

    2009-01-01

    Due to industrial revolution and the heavy use of fossil fuels, the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has increased dramatically during the last hundred years, and this has lead to an increase in mean global temperature. The environmental consequences of this are: the melting of the ice caps, an increase in mean sea-levels, catastrophic events such as floodings, hurricanes and earthquakes, changes to the animal and vegetable kingdoms, a growth in vectors and bacteria in water thus increasing the risk of infectious diseases and damage to agriculture. The toxic effects of the pollution on human health are both acute and chronic. The Kyoto Protocol is an important step in the campaign against climatic changes but it is not sufficient. A possible solution might be for the States which produce the most of pollution to adopt a better political stance for the environment and to use renewable resources for the production of energy.

  16. Contributions of Psychology to Limiting Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Paul C.

    2011-01-01

    Psychology can make a significant contribution to limiting the magnitude of climate change by improving understanding of human behaviors that drive climate change and human reactions to climate-related technologies and policies, and by turning that understanding into effective interventions. This article develops a framework for psychological…

  17. Climate change. Scientific background and process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alfsen, Knut H.; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Seip, Hans Martin; Skodvin, Tora

    1999-07-01

    The paper describes briefly the natural and man-made forces behind climate change and outlines climate variations in the past. It also discusses the future impact of anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases, and the background, organisation and functioning of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

  18. Science Teachers' Perspectives about Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Vaille

    2012-01-01

    Climate change and its effects are likely to present challenging problems for future generations of young people. It is important for Australian students to understand the mechanisms and consequences of climate change. If students are to develop a sophisticated understanding, then science teachers need to be well-informed about climate change…

  19. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.; Schaik, van H.; Valk, van der M.

    2009-01-01

    Today’s climate variability already has a large impact on water supply and protection. Millions of people are affected every year by droughts and floods. Future climate change is likely to make things worse. Many people within the water sector are aware that climate change is affecting water resourc

  20. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  1. Regional climate model simulations for Europe at 6 k and 0.2 k yr BP: sensitivity to changes in anthropogenic deforestation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Strandberg

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to evaluate the direct effects of anthropogenic deforestation on simulated climate at two contrasting periods in the Holocene, ~6 k BP and ~0.2 k BP in Europe. We apply RCA3, a regional climate model with 50 km spatial resolution, for both time periods, considering three alternative descriptions of the past vegetation: (i potential natural vegetation (V simulated by the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, (ii potential vegetation with anthropogenic land cover (deforestation as simulated by the HYDE model (V + H, and (iii potential vegetation with anthropogenic land cover as simulated by the KK model (V + K. The KK model estimates are closer to a set of pollen-based reconstructions of vegetation cover than the HYDE model estimates. The climate-model results show that the simulated effects of deforestation depend on both local/regional climate and vegetation characteristics. At ~6 k BP the extent of simulated deforestation in Europe is generally small, but there are areas where deforestation is large enough to produce significant differences in summer temperatures of 0.5–1 °C. At ~0.2 k BP, simulated deforestation is much more extensive than previously assumed, in particular according to the KK model. This leads to significant temperature differences in large parts of Europe in both winter and summer. In winter, deforestation leads to lower temperatures because of the differences in albedo between forested and unforested areas, particularly in the snow-covered regions. In summer, deforestation leads to higher temperatures in central and eastern Europe since evapotranspiration from unforested areas is lower than from forests. Summer evaporation is already limited in the southernmost parts of Europe under potential vegetation conditions and, therefore, cannot become much lower. Accordingly, the albedo effect dominates also in summer, which implies that deforestation causes a decrease in temperatures. Differences in summer

  2. Simulations of LGM climate of East Asia by regional climate model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郑益群; 于革; 王苏民; 薛滨; 刘华强; 曾新民

    2003-01-01

    Climate conditions in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were remarkably different from the present ones. Adopting a regional climate model (RCM) which has included a detailed land surface scheme, LGM climate of East Asia has been simulated. The effects of vegetation changes on LGM climate have been diagnosed by adding forces of LGM paleovegetation reconstructed from the geological records. The results of the simulations by RCM indicate that large decreases in whole year temperature of East Asia continent caused strongly enhanced winter monsoon and weakened summer monsoon. The strengthening and westward-stretching of the Subtropical High of West-Pacific are the key reasons of decreases of LGM summer precipitation in eastern China. Precipitation and effective precipitation were increased in the Tibetan Plateau and Middle-Asia, while the humid condition in the Tibetan Plateau was mainly caused by increase of precipitation. Accumulated snow of LGM was also increased in the Tibetan Plateau, which was helpful to developing glacier and permafrost. This experiment has simulated that the frozen soil areas extend southward to 30°N. In LGM climate simulation, climate effects caused by external forces were amplified by added paleovegetation, therefore, decreases of temperature, changes of precipitation and snowfall, and other climatic parameters were further strengthened, making the simulation results more approach to geological evidences.

  3. Rethinking climate change as a security threat

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoch, Corinne

    2011-10-15

    Once upon a time climate change was a strictly environment and development issue. Today it has become a matter of national and international security. Efforts to link climate change with violent conflict may not be based on solid evidence, but they have certainly captured the attention of governments. They have played a vital role in raising the much-needed awareness of climate change as an issue that deserves global action. But at what cost? Focusing on climate change as a security threat alone risks devolving humanitarian responsibilities to the military, ignoring key challenges and losing sight of those climate-vulnerable communities that stand most in need of protection.

  4. Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brown, Christopher J.; Schoeman, David S.; Sydeman, William J.

    2011-01-01

    climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer‐reviewed articles that examined relationships...... between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non...

  5. Unraveling the interactive effects of climate change and oil contamination on laboratory-simulated estuarine benthic communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coelho, Francisco J R C; Cleary, Daniel F R; Rocha, Rui J M; Calado, Ricardo; Castanheira, José M; Rocha, Sílvia M; Silva, Artur M S; Simões, Mário M Q; Oliveira, Vanessa; Lillebø, Ana I; Almeida, Adelaide; Cunha, Ângela; Lopes, Isabel; Ribeiro, Rui; Moreira-Santos, Matilde; Marques, Catarina R; Costa, Rodrigo; Pereira, Ruth; Gomes, Newton C M

    2015-05-01

    There is growing concern that modifications to the global environment such as ocean acidification and increased ultraviolet radiation may interact with anthropogenic pollutants to adversely affect the future marine environment. Despite this, little is known about the nature of the potential risks posed by such interactions. Here, we performed a multifactorial microcosm experiment to assess the impact of ocean acidification, ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation and oil hydrocarbon contamination on sediment chemistry, the microbial community (composition and function) and biochemical marker response of selected indicator species. We found that increased ocean acidification and oil contamination in the absence of UV-B will significantly alter bacterial composition by, among other things, greatly reducing the relative abundance of Desulfobacterales, known to be important oil hydrocarbon degraders. Along with changes in bacterial composition, we identified concomitant shifts in the composition of oil hydrocarbons in the sediment and an increase in oxidative stress effects on our indicator species. Interestingly, our study identifies UV-B as a critical component in the interaction between these factors, as its presence alleviates harmful effects caused by the combination of reduced pH and oil pollution. The model system used here shows that the interactive effect of reduced pH and oil contamination can adversely affect the structure and functioning of sediment benthic communities, with the potential to exacerbate the toxicity of oil hydrocarbons in marine ecosystems.

  6. Pacific Islands Climate Change Virtual Library

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Virtual Library provides access to web based climate variability and climate change information and tools relevant to the Pacific Islands including case studies,...

  7. Climate Change, Health, and Populations of Concern

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page contains communication materials that summarize key points from the U.S. Climate and Health Assessment for eight different populations that are disproportionately affected by climate change impacts.

  8. The human factor: climate change and climate communication

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2011-01-01

    Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)......Reprint and translation of the article: “Den menneskelige faktor” published in the magazine Klima&Tilpasning Publisher: “Coordination unit for Research in Climate Change Adaptation” (KFT)...

  9. Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Benjamin P.

    2013-01-01

    The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theo