WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate adaptation potential

  1. Soils and climate: Consequences and potential adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Motavalli, Peter P.

    2008-01-01

    This presention outlines results of research about the consequences and potential adaptation of soils to climate change. This includes findings regarding change in soil organic matter and management practices/techniques for adapting to production. LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

  2. Estimating the potential for adaptation of corals to climate warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaus B M Császár

    Full Text Available The persistence of tropical coral reefs is threatened by rapidly increasing climate warming, causing a functional breakdown of the obligate symbiosis between corals and their algal photosymbionts (Symbiodinium through a process known as coral bleaching. Yet the potential of the coral-algal symbiosis to genetically adapt in an evolutionary sense to warming oceans is unknown. Using a quantitative genetics approach, we estimated the proportion of the variance in thermal tolerance traits that has a genetic basis (i.e. heritability as a proxy for their adaptive potential in the widespread Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora. We chose two physiologically different populations that associate respectively with one thermo-tolerant (Symbiodinium clade D and one less tolerant symbiont type (Symbiodinium C2. In both symbiont types, pulse amplitude modulated (PAM fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC analysis revealed significant heritabilities for traits related to both photosynthesis and photoprotective pigment profile. However, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR assays showed a lack of heritability in both coral host populations for their own expression of fundamental stress genes. Coral colony growth, contributed to by both symbiotic partners, displayed heritability. High heritabilities for functional key traits of algal symbionts, along with their short clonal generation time and high population sizes allow for their rapid thermal adaptation. However, the low overall heritability of coral host traits, along with the corals' long generation time, raise concern about the timely adaptation of the coral-algal symbiosis in the face of continued rapid climate warming.

  3. Identifying potential local climate change impacts and adaptation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The subjects discussed in this presentation concern developing resilience to climate extremes and adapting to climate change as local issues; examples of two approaches in New Zealand to helping local groups identify impacts and adaptation options; providing guidance to help councils take a risk management approach; regional scenario numbers for assessments; local workshops in Eastern Regions; and resource kits. The presentation is summarized as follows: Adaptation to climate change is a local issue; Successful adaptation depends on local councils, farmers and industry; Guidance is now available in NZ to help councils address climate change impacts and adaptation within their operations, planning and risk management frameworks; Various approaches are being taken to effectively communicate this information; Personal interactions between local community members, council staff and scientists help with uptake; Approaches which help people draw on their own local knowledge and experience are appreciated

  4. Coastal Community Adaptation to Future Potential Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prime, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    This research project aims to determine the physical and economic resilience of coastal communities. This translates into identifying how such communities can adapt to potential future climate change in the most efficient cost effective way. Fleetwood in Lancashire has been chosen as a case study site, with recently refurbished sea defences. This research is interested in the best way to maintain resilience of the defences over long time horizons and against low probability high impact events as the coastal defences deteriorate. We assess coastal flood risk using a flood inundation model called LISFLOOD-FP, this is a 2D hydrodynamic model designed to simulate flood inundation over complex topography. LISFLOOD-FP predicts water depths in each grid cell at each time step, simulating the dynamic propagation of flood waves over fluvial, coastal and estuarine floodplains. The model is forced at the boundary with an extreme water level that has a defined probability of occurring, e.g. 1 in 100 years. This is combined with a scaled surge curve for the area, a high spring tidal curve and the addition of a sea level rise parameter, which is dependent on the defined time horizon and future carbon emissions scenarios. LISFLOOD-FP has been extended to simulate wave over-topping of sea defences, this is achieved by using a Shallow Water And Boussinesq (SWAB) 1D model which models wave over-topping of sea defences. The outputs from this model can be added into LISFLOOD as a flow of water that originates from the top of the sea defences and simulates the over topping. The simulation has also been extended further by adding a river component. The flow within the river channel has been added into the model as a 1D vector with bed elevation and width, the river flow vector consists of a hydro-graph of a high flow event. Return period analysis will be applied to the river peaks over threshold data and the example hydro-graph can then be tailored to the peak return period flow rate

  5. Adaptive potential of a Pacific salmon challenged by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Nicolas J.; Farrell, Anthony P.; Heath, John W.; Neff, Bryan D.

    2015-02-01

    Pacific salmon provide critical sustenance for millions of people worldwide and have far-reaching impacts on the productivity of ecosystems. Rising temperatures now threaten the persistence of these important fishes, yet it remains unknown whether populations can adapt. Here, we provide the first evidence that a Pacific salmon has both physiological and genetic capacities to increase its thermal tolerance in response to rising temperatures. In juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), a 4 °C increase in developmental temperature was associated with a 2 °C increase in key measures of the thermal performance of cardiac function. Moreover, additive genetic effects significantly influenced several measures of cardiac capacity, indicative of heritable variation on which selection can act. However, a lack of both plasticity and genetic variation was found for the arrhythmic temperature of the heart, constraining this upper thermal limit to a maximum of 24.5 +/- 2.2 °C. Linking this constraint on thermal tolerance with present-day river temperatures and projected warming scenarios, we predict a 17% chance of catastrophic loss in the population by 2100 based on the average warming projection, with this chance increasing to 98% in the maximum warming scenario. Climate change mitigation is thus necessary to ensure the future viability of Pacific salmon populations.

  6. The Potential of Sustainable Agriculture for Climate Change Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, Adrian; Niggli, Urs

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation in agriculture needs to be based on foru pillars: - Increasing soil fertility - Increasing biodiversity - Providing information and extension services to support sustainable agriculture practices and organic agriculture, agroecology and agroforestry - Geating a level playing field for sustainable agriculture at the gobal level. Organic agriculture is an ideal solution as it responds to the first three pillars. In addition, global policies, and trade and competition i...

  7. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  8. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2016-06-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  9. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2016-06-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered. PMID:27509755

  10. Assessing the potential of in-field rainwater harvesting as an adaptation strategy to climate change for African agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lebel, S.; Fleskens, L.; Forster, P.M.; Jackson, L.S.; Lorenz, S.

    2015-01-01

    Stabilizing smallholder crop yields under changing climatic conditions in sub-Saharan Africa will require adaptation strategies focused on soil and water management. Impact studies of climate change on crop yields often ignore the potential of adaptation strategies such as rainwater harvesting (RWH)

  11. Assessing bio-economic impacts and climate adaptation potential in Flanders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gobin, A.

    2009-04-01

    . The interaction between these effects depends on the crop type. The impact on crop production was simulated with a dynamic vegetation model for eight crops (winter wheat, potatoes, sugar beet, fodder maize, grass, grain maize, cauliflower spring, cauliflower autumn), three soil types (loamy sand, loam, clay) and four climatic data series (historic and three cc-scenarios). The three climate change scenarios were selected on the basis of multi-criteria analysis of the PRUDENCE RCM runs. In total 3480 year simulations were executed with a daily modelling step. Pronounced yield losses mainly due to water shortages and heat stress occur for all climate change scenario's, to a lesser extent in the case of winter and spring crops. Yield losses of up to 30% are simulated for sugar beet, whereas winter wheat losses are only 6 % on loamy sand. High critical temperatures lead to heat stress, decreased fodder uptake, outbreaks of diseases and ultimately to animal production losses. Changes in animal production were calculated with a threshold model, whereby a daily maximum temperature of 30°C was taken as the production limit. Calculated animal production losses are up to 9 % for sheep, 8 % for cattle, 6 % for pigs and 3% for poultry. An economic prognosis of the technical productivity, the price effect, the required agricultural area and number of animals was used to estimate the potential productivity for 16 agricultural activities. The impact of climate change was included through aggregating the modelled production losses for Flanders and assuming the agricultural area, the number of animals and the prices constant to the economic prognosis. The total financial impacts are 0.1 % or 6.6 million euro for the first scenario, 1.5% or 71 million euro for the second scenario and 4.1% or 201 million euro for the third scenario. The results represent the acceptable cost of adaptation measures to maintain current efficiencies and production levels. Three gradations of adaptation were

  12. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  13. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn;

    2011-01-01

    Mozambique, like many African countries, is already highly susceptible to climate variability and extreme weather events. Climate change threatens to heighten this vulnerability. In order to evaluate potential impacts and adaptation options for Mozambique, we develop an integrated modeling...... framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7...

  14. Potential benefits of early vigor and changes in phenology in wheat to adapt to warmer and drier climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Asseng, S.

    2010-01-01

    Developing crop cultivars with novel traits could help agriculture adapt to climate change. As introducing new traits into crops is expensive and time consuming, it is helpful to develop methods which can test whether a potential new plant trait increases or maintains production in future climates.

  15. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  16. The potential of organic agriculture for contributing to climate change adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, Adrian; Osman-Elasha, Balgis; Andreasen, Lise

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture is and will be affected negatively by climate change in many regions. Most vulnerable are poor agricultural communities in the Global South and assuring food security for the twenty-first century requires successful adaptation to climate change in agriculture. Besides being affected by climate change, agriculture also contributes significantly to it. Some 10–15 per cent of total global greenhouse gas emissions are direct agricultural emissions. Adding emissions from conversion to ...

  17. Quantifying variety-specific heat resistance and the potential for adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tack, Jesse; Barkley, Andrew; Rife, Trevor W; Poland, Jesse A; Nalley, Lawton Lanier

    2016-08-01

    The impact of climate change on crop yields has become widely measured; however, the linkages for winter wheat are less studied due to dramatic weather changes during the long growing season that are difficult to model. Recent research suggests significant reductions under warming. A potential adaptation strategy involves the development of heat resistant varieties by breeders, combined with alternative variety selection by producers. However, the impact of heat on specific wheat varieties remains relatively unstudied due to limited data and the complex genetic basis of heat tolerance. Here, we provide a novel econometric approach that combines field-trial data with a genetic cluster mapping to group wheat varieties and estimate a separate extreme heat impact (temperatures over 34 °C) across 24 clusters spanning 197 varieties. We find a wide range of heterogeneous heat resistance and a trade-off between average yield and resistance. Results suggest that recently released varieties are less heat resistant than older varieties, a pattern that also holds for on-farm varieties. Currently released - but not yet adopted - varieties do not offer improved resistance relative to varieties currently grown on farm. Our findings suggest that warming impacts could be significantly reduced through advances in wheat breeding and/or adoption decisions by producers. However, current adaptation-through-adoption potential is limited under a 1 °C warming scenario as increased heat resistance cannot be achieved without a reduction in average yields. PMID:26577840

  18. Perceptions of Climate Change and the Potential for Adaptation in a Rural Community in Limpopo Province, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sejabaledi A. Rankoana

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Perceptions of climate change by rural communities are centered on observations of variations in temperature and rainfall patterns supported by observations and projections on climate alterations in the form of increased temperatures and scarce rainfall by scientists worldwide. The present study documented perceptions of climate variation and the community’s ability to adapt to climate change hazards threatening the production of subsistence crops. Data were collected through interactions with 100 participants. In the study, climate change is explained as variations in temperature and rainfall patterns which resulted in excessive heat, erratic rainfall patterns and drought negatively impacting on subsistence crop production. Community members have the potential to limit the impacts of climate hazards on subsistence crop production. The negative impacts of climate hazards are limited by community members’ indigenous knowledge of rainfall prediction, the seasons, crop diversification and mixed cropping. Mulching and the application of kraal manure improve the soil structure and fertility to reduce crop failure. These adaptation measures are resilient to the negative impact of climate hazards and may be helpful in the development of adaptation policies to assist rural communities vulnerable to climate change hazards.

  19. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  20. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  1. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  2. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  3. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Carmin; K. Tierney; E. Chu; L.M. Hunter; J.T. Roberts; L. Shi

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  4. Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco, with Potential Adaptation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Rheraya watershed already suffers from the impacts of climate variability and will be further affected by climate change. Severe water shortages and extremely fragile ecological conditions necessitate careful attention to water resources management. The aim of this study is to analyze Rheraya’s future water situation under different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change until 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System model (WEAP has been applied to estimate the current water demands and the increased water demands resulting from climate change. WEAP was calibrated using meteorological and demand observations, then, updated with present-day and future climatic conditions using the Statistical Down-scaling Model with two projections (A2, B2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Those projections show an increase in temperature of about 2–3 °C and a reduction in precipitation of 40–60% with respect to baseline. The results show that the pressure on Rheraya’s water resources will increase, leading to greater competition for surface water, and that domestic, tourist, livestock and agricultural demands will not be met by the year 2100. The Results also demonstrate that the assessments of adaptation strategies proposed by decision makers are effective but not sustainable for the watershed.

  5. Climate change impact and potential adaptation strategies under alternate realizations of climate scenarios for three major crops in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This study presents an estimate of the effects of climate variables and CO2 on three major crops, namely wheat, rapeseed and sunflower, in EU27 Member States. We also investigated some technical adaptation options which could offset climate change impacts. The time-slices 2000, 2020 and 2030 were chosen to represent the baseline and future climate, respectively. Furthermore, two realizations within the A1B emission scenario proposed by the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), from the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 GCM, were selected. A time series of 30 years for each GCM and time slice were used as input weather data for simulation. The time series were generated with a stochastic weather generator trained over GCM-RCM time series (downscaled simulations from the ENSEMBLES project which were statistically bias-corrected prior to the use of the weather generator). GCM-RCM simulations differed primarily for rainfall patterns across Europe, whereas the temperature increase was similar in the time horizons considered. Simulations based on the model CropSyst v. 3 were used to estimate crop responses; CropSyst was re-implemented in the modelling framework BioMA. The results presented in this paper refer to abstraction of crop growth with respect to its production system, and consider growth as limited by weather and soil water. How crop growth responds to CO2 concentrations; pests, diseases, and nutrients limitations were not accounted for in simulations. The results show primarily that different realization of the emission scenario lead to noticeably different crop performance projections in the same time slice. Simple adaptation techniques such as changing sowing dates and the use of different varieties, the latter in terms of duration of the crop cycle, may be effective in alleviating the adverse effects of climate change in most areas, although response to best adaptation (within the techniques tested) differed across crops. Although a negative impact of climate

  6. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  7. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...... adaptation needed. Issues that must be addressed in case a strategic approach is not developed, as the building sector is continuously investing in measures to adapt to climate change as impacts emerge are described....

  8. Assessing climate change induced displacements and its potential impacts on climate refugees:how can surveyors help with adaptation?

    OpenAIRE

    Boateng, Isaac

    2014-01-01

    Global warming and climate change pose severe threat to many countries, territories and cultural heritage of humanity on earth in the 21st century. One of the ensuing effects of climate change is the issue of climate induced displacements and the consequent migrants (climate refugees). Over the past two decades, the debate about “climate refugees” among experts, advocacy groups and social scientists has produced lots of different scenarios about environmentally induced migration. However, the...

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand in Rheraya Watershed (Morocco), with Potential Adaptation Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Rochdane, Saloua; Reichert, Barbara; Messouli, Mohammed; Babqiqi, Abdelaziz; Khebiza, Mohammed Yacoubi

    2012-01-01

    Rheraya watershed already suffers from the impacts of climate variability and will be further affected by climate change. Severe water shortages and extremely fragile ecological conditions necessitate careful attention to water resources management. The aim of this study is to analyze Rheraya’s future water situation under different scenarios of socio-economic development and climate change until 2100. The Water Evaluation and Planning System model (WEAP) has been applied to estimate the curr...

  10. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm managemen

  11. Funding climate adaptation strategies with climate derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Richard Little

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate adaptation requires large capital investments that could be provided not only by traditional sources like governments and banks, but also by derivatives markets. Such markets would allow two parties with different tolerances and expectations about climate risks to transact for their mutual benefit and, in so doing, finance climate adaptation. Here we calculate the price of a derivative called a European put option, based on future sea surface temperature (SST in Tasmania, Australia, with an 18 °C strike threshold. This price represents a quantifiable indicator of climate risk, and forms the basis for aquaculture industries exposed to the risk of higher SST to finance adaptation strategies through the sale of derivative contracts. Such contracts provide a real incentive to parties with different climate outlooks, or risk exposure to take a market assessment of climate change.

  12. Evolutionary potential and adaptation of Banksia attenuata (Proteaceae) to climate and fire regime in southwestern Australia, a global biodiversity hotspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Tianhua; D’Agui, Haylee; Lim, Sim Lin; Enright, Neal J.; Luo, Yiqi

    2016-05-01

    Substantial climate changes are evident across Australia, with declining rainfall and rising temperature in conjunction with frequent fires. Considerable species loss and range contractions have been predicted; however, our understanding of how genetic variation may promote adaptation in response to climate change remains uncertain. Here we characterized candidate genes associated with rainfall gradients, temperatures, and fire intervals through environmental association analysis. We found that overall population adaptive genetic variation was significantly affected by shortened fire intervals, whereas declining rainfall and rising temperature did not have a detectable influence. Candidate SNPs associated with rainfall and high temperature were diverse, whereas SNPs associated with specific fire intervals were mainly fixed in one allele. Gene annotation further revealed four genes with functions in stress tolerance, the regulation of stomatal opening and closure, energy use, and morphogenesis with adaptation to climate and fire intervals. B. attenuata may tolerate further changes in rainfall and temperature through evolutionary adaptations based on their adaptive genetic variation. However, the capacity to survive future climate change may be compromised by changes in the fire regime.

  13. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Toni Lyn; Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z; Dulen, Deanna M; Ebersole, Joseph L; Jackson, Stephen T; Lundquist, Jessica D; Millar, Constance I; Maher, Sean P; Monahan, William B; Nydick, Koren R; Redmond, Kelly T; Sawyer, Sarah C; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  14. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Christopher; Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Dulen, Deanna M.; Ebersole, Joseph L.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Lundquist, Jessica D.; Millar, Constance I.; Maher, Sean P.; Monahan, William B.; Nydick, Koren R.; Redmond, Kelly T.; Sawyer, Sarah C.; Stock, Sarah; Beissinger, Steven R.

    2016-01-01

    Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical and contemporary views, and characterize physical and ecological processes that create and maintain climate change refugia. We then delineate how refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for climate adaptation and describe seven steps for managing them. Finally, we identify challenges and opportunities for operationalizing the concept of climate change refugia. Managing climate change refugia can be an important option for conservation in the face of ongoing climate change. PMID:27509088

  15. The potential role of health impact assessment in tackling the complexity of climate change adaptation for health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen L; Proust, Katrina; Spickett, Jeffery; Capon, Anthony

    2011-12-01

    Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems. PMID:22518921

  16. The potential role of health impact assessment in tackling the complexity of climate change adaptation for health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen L; Proust, Katrina; Spickett, Jeffery; Capon, Anthony

    2011-12-01

    Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems.

  17. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

  18. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability:The importance of understanding agriculture as performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2011-01-01

    Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and integrat

  19. The adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors address the issue of adaptation to climate change. They first address the physical aspects related to this issue: scenarios of temperature evolution, main possible impacts. Then, they address the social impacts related to climate risks, and the adaptation strategies which aim at reducing the exposure and vulnerability of human societies, or at increasing their resilience. Some examples of losses of human lives and of economic damages due to recent catastrophes related to climate change are evoked. The authors address the international framework, the emergence of an international regime on climate, the quite recent emergence of adaptation within international negotiations in 2001, the emergence of the idea of a support to developing countries. National and local policies are presented in the next chapter (in the European Union, the Netherlands which are faced with the issue of sea level rise, programs in developing countries) and their limitations are also outlined. The next chapter addresses the adaptation actions performed by private actors (enterprises, households, associations, civil society, and so on) with example of vulnerability, and adaptation opportunities and possibilities in some specific sectors. The last chapter presents a typology of actions of adaptation, indicators of adaptation to climate change, and examples of mistaken adaptation

  20. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Elisabeth. Werners

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

  1. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  2. Climate variability and change and their potential health effects in small island states: information for adaptation planning in the health sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Lewis, Nancy D; Corvalan, Carlos

    2006-12-01

    Small island states are likely the countries most vulnerable to climate variability and longterm climate change. Climate models suggest that small island states will experience warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall, soil moisture budgets, prevailing winds (speed and direction), and patterns of wave action. El Niño events likely will strengthen shortterm and interannual climate variations. In addition, global mean sea level is projected to increase by 0.09-0.88 m by 2100, with variable effects on regional and local sea level. To better understand the potential human health consequences of these projected changes, a series of workshops and a conference organized by the World Health Organization, in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, addressed the following issues: the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive diseases in small island states, the potential future health impacts of climate variability and change, the interventions currently used to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive diseases, additional interventions that are needed to adapt to current and future health impacts, and the health implications of climate variability and change in other sectors. Information on these issues is synthesized and key recommendations are identified for improving the capacity of the health sector to anticipate and prepare for climate variability and change in small island states.

  3. 2012 NEHA/UL sabbatical report: vulnerability to potential impacts of climate change: adaptation and risk communication strategies for environmental health practitioners in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut

    2014-04-01

    Climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning have become increasingly important to environmental health practitioners (EHPs). The NEHA/UL Sabbatical Exchange Award allowed me to investigate how EHPs in the UK are incorporating climate change planning and communication strategies into their work. Projected climate change risks in the UK include flooding, extreme heat, water shortages, severe weather, decreased air quality, and changes in vectors. Despite public perception and funding challenges, all the local government representatives with whom I met incorporated climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning into their work. The mandated Community Risk Register serves as a key planning document developed by each local government authority and is a meaningful way to look at potential climate change health risks. Adaptation and sustainability were common threads in my meetings. These often took the form of "going green" with transportation, energy efficiency, conserving resources, and building design because the efforts made sense monetarily as future cost savings. Communication strategies targeted a variety of audiences (EHPs, non-EHP government employees, politicians, and the general public) using a broad range of communication channels (professional training, lobbying, conferences and fairs, publications, print materials, Internet resources, social media, billboards, etc).

  4. Climate Change Adaptation in the Urban Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    This overview chapter considers five questions that cut across the four case studies in the section to follow: (1) why are urban environments of particular interest; (2) what does an 'urban environment' mean as a focus for adaptation actions, (3) what do we know about climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials in urban areas; (4) what can we expect in the future with adaptation in urban areas; and (5) what is happening with climate change adaptation in urban areas? After decades of inattention, adaptation to risks and impacts of climate change is now receiving long overdue attention, and it is only natural that a considerable share of this attention is focused on the places where most people live. This section considers climate change adaptation in the urban environment, defined as settings where human populations cluster - generally implying relatively large clusters, but not excluding smaller settlements that operate as coherent geopolitical and economic entities. Consistent with the topic of the book, the emphasis of this overview will be on urban environments in developed countries, but it will also draw on knowledge being developed from urban experiences across the globe.

  5. Learning to Adapt. Organisational Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analysis of human adaptation to climate change should be based on realistic models of adaptive behaviour at the level of organisations and individuals. The paper sets out a framework for analysing adaptation to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change in business organisations with new evidence presented from empirical research into adaptation in nine case-study companies. It argues that adaptation to climate change has many similarities with processes of organisational learning. The paper suggests that business organisations face a number of obstacles in learning how to adapt to climate change impacts, especially in relation to the weakness and ambiguity of signals about climate change and the uncertainty about benefits flowing from adaptation measures. Organisations rarely adapt 'autonomously', since their adaptive behaviour is influenced by policy and market conditions, and draws on resources external to the organisation. The paper identifies four adaptation strategies that pattern organisational adaptive behaviour

  6. Adaptation to climatic variability and change. Report of the task force on climate adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A critique and interpretation is presented of what is known and available about adaptation to climate changes, not based on any particular climate scenario. It is assumed that variability is a fact of climate and that changes in climatic conditions are possible and are constantly occurring. Emphasis is on adaptation with regard to economic and social activities in Canada. A series of linked objectives are addressed, relating to demonstration of the significance of adaptation, consideration of case studies of adaptation (past and potential future) in Canada, clarification of the meaning of adaptation and the forms it takes, assessment of policy implications, and identification of research priorities. The basic facts on global climate change are reviewed, including long-term temperature variations, and adaptation is discussed as a public policy response. Examples of adaptation in Canada are given in the areas of Great Lakes property, power generation, and transportation; Atlantic Canada communities and fisheries; forestry; the construction industry; the energy industry; recreation and tourism; agriculture; urban areas; and national defense. Recommendations regarding adapation are made to governments, the private sector, and researchers. An inventory of adaptation strategies for agriculture, the Arctic, coastal areas, ecosystems and land use, energy supply, fisheries, forestry, urban infrastructure, and water resources is appended

  7. The role of social interaction in farmers' climate adaptation choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duinen, van R.; Filatova, T.; Veen, van der A.; Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.A.; Lange, S.; Bankamp, D.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change might not always occur, with potentially catastrophic results. Success depends on coordinated actions at both governmental and individual levels (public and private adaptation). Even for a “wet” country like the Netherlands, climate change projections show that the frequ

  8. Adapting complex multi-level landscape systems to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koomen, E.; Steingröver, E.G.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is becoming a prominent issue in both landscape research and landuse planning. Current research focuses mainly on the description of potential impacts for different societal sectors and in general fails to provide useful information to help define climate adaptation stra

  9. Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation toclimate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost-benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over 7 billions m3 of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports waterresources.

  10. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  11. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.;

    2009-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...... on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing...

  12. Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziska, Lewis H.; Bunce, James A.; Shimono, Hiroyuki; Gealy, David R.; Baker, Jeffrey T.; Newton, Paul C. D.; Reynolds, Matthew P.; Jagadish, Krishna S. V.; Zhu, Chunwu; Howden, Mark; Wilson, Lloyd T.

    2012-01-01

    Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO2 to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO2 and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO2 responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change. PMID:22874755

  13. Australian climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on impacts, adaptation and vulnerability made the following conclusions about Australia (Hennessy et al., 2007): Regional climate change has occurred. Since 1950, there has been 0.70C warming, with more heat waves, fewer frosts, more rain in north-west Australia, less rain in southern and eastern Australia, an increase in the intensity of Australian droughts and a rise in sea level of about 70 mm. Australia is already experiencing impacts from recent climate change. These are now evident in increasing stresses on water supply and agriculture, changed natural ecosystems, and reduced seasonal snow cover. Some adaptation has already occurred in response to observed climate change. Examples come from sectors such as water, natural ecosystems, agriculture, horticulture and coasts. However, ongoing vulnerability to extreme events is demonstrated by substantial economic losses caused by droughts, floods, fire, tropical cyclones and hail. The climate of the 21st century is virtually certain to be warmer, with changes in extreme events. Heat waves and fires are virtually certain to increase in intensity and frequency. Floods, landslides, droughts and storm surges are very likely to become more frequent and intense, and snow and frost are very likely to become less frequent. Large areas of mainland Australia are likely to have less soil moisture. Potential impacts of climate change are likely to be substantial without further adaptation; As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia; Ongoing coastal development and population growth, in areas such as Cairns and south-east Queensland, are projected to exacerbate risks from sea level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050. Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically rich

  14. Climate change adaptation planning in large cities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Araos, Malcolm; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Lesnikowski, Alexandra

    2016-01-01

    Cities globally face significant risks from climate change, and are taking an increasingly active role in formulating and implementing climate change adaptation policy. However, there are few, if any, global assessments of adaptation taking place across cities. This study develops and applies a f

  15. Using Uncertain Climate and Development Information in Health Adaptation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Hess, Jeremy J; Isaksen, Tania Busch

    2016-03-01

    To aid health adaptation decision-making, there are increasing efforts to provide climate projections at finer temporal and spatial scales. Relying solely on projected climate changes for longer-term decisions makes the implicit assumption that sources of vulnerability other than climate change will remain the same, which is not very probable. Over longer time horizons, this approach likely over estimates the extent to which climate change could alter the magnitude and pattern of health outcomes, introducing systematic bias into health management decisions. To balance this potential bias, decision-makers also need projections of other drivers of health outcomes that are, like climate change, recognized determinants of some disease burdens. Incorporating projections via an iterative process that allows for regular updates based on new knowledge and experience has the potential to improve the utility of fine-scale climate projections in health system adaptation to climate change.

  16. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change. PMID:18759775

  17. EMS adaptation for climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, C.; Chang, Y.; Wen, J.; Tsai, M.

    2010-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to find an appropriate scenario of pre-hospital transportation of an emergency medical service (EMS) system for burdensome casualties resulting from extreme climate events. A case of natural catastrophic events in Taiwan, 88 wind-caused disasters, was reviewed and analyzed. A sequential-conveyance method was designed to shorten the casualty transportation time and to promote the efficiency of ambulance services. A proposed mobile emergency medical center was first constructed in a safe area, but nearby the disaster area. The Center consists of professional medical personnel who process the triage of incoming patients and take care of casualties with minor injuries. Ambulances in the Center were ready to sequentially convey the casualties with severer conditions to an assigned hospital that is distant from the disaster area for further treatment. The study suggests that if we could construct a spacious and well-equipped mobile emergency medical center, only a small portion of casualties would need to be transferred to distant hospitals. This would reduce the over-crowding problem in hospital ERs. First-line ambulances only reciprocated between the mobile emergency medical center and the disaster area, saving time and shortening the working distances. Second-line ambulances were highly regulated between the mobile emergency medical center and requested hospitals. The ambulance service of the sequential-conveyance method was found to be more efficient than the conventional method and was concluded to be more profitable and reasonable on paper in adapting to climate change. Therefore, additional practical work should be launched to collect more precise quantitative data.

  18. Economics of adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report proposes a general economic framework for the issue of adaptation to climate change in order to help public and private actors to build up efficient adaptation strategies. It proposes a general definition of adaptation, identifies the major stakes for these strategies, and discusses the assessment of global costs of adaptation to climate change. It discusses the role and modalities of public action and gives some examples of possible adaptation measures in some important sectors (building and town planning, energy and transport infrastructures, water and agriculture, ecosystems, insurance). It examines the regional and national dimensions of adaptation and their relationship, and defines steps for implementing an adaptation strategy. It describes and discusses the use of economic tools in the elaboration of an adaptation strategy, i.e. how to take uncertainties into account, which scenarios to choose, how to use economic calculations to assess adaptation policies

  19. The role of social interaction in farmers' climate adaptation choice

    OpenAIRE

    Duinen, van, R.J.; Filatova, T.; Veen, van der, J.T.; R. Seppelt; Voinov, A. A.; Lange, S.; Bankamp, D.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change might not always occur, with potentially catastrophic results. Success depends on coordinated actions at both governmental and individual levels (public and private adaptation). Even for a “wet” country like the Netherlands, climate change projections show that the frequency and severity of droughts are likely to increase. Freshwater is an important factor for agricultural production. A deficit causes damage to crop production and consequently to a loss of income....

  20. Assessing the effectiveness of climate adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-10-15

    As governments and other agencies spend more money on adaptation to climate change they want to know that their investments are effective — that adaptation will keep development on track, that there is a fair distribution of costs and benefits, and that climate resilience is being built. But monitoring and evaluating adaptation policy and practice is not easy. Some approaches are unhelpful because they fail to integrate adaptation and development, use purely quantitative methods and do not include the perspectives of climate-vulnerable groups in their assessments. Enabling countries and organisations to effectively evaluate adaptation requires an inclusive approach built on sharing knowledge among all stakeholders — one that can capture behavioural and institutional changes and that answers to the needs of the climate-vulnerable poor.

  1. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  2. The resilience approach to climate adaptation applied for flood risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gersonius, B.

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation presents a potential way forward for adaptation to climate change, termed the resilience approach. This approach takes a dynamic perspective on adaptive processes and the effects of these processes at/across different spatio-temporal scales. Experience is provided with four methods

  3. Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biesbroek, G. Robbert; Swart, Rob J.; Carter, Timothy R.;

    2010-01-01

    For the last two decades, European climate policy has focused almost exclusively on mitigation of climate change. It was only well after the turn of the century, with impacts of climate change increasingly being observed, that adaptation was added to the policy agenda and EU Member States started...... to develop National Adaptation Strategies (NASs). This paper reviews seven National Adaptation Strategies that were either formally adopted or under development by Member States at the end of 2008. The strategies are analysed under the following six themes. Firstly, the factors motivating and facilitating...... the development of a national adaptation strategy. Secondly, the scientific and technical support needed for the development and implementation of such a strategy. Thirdly, the role of the strategy in information, communication and awareness-raising of the adaptation issue. Fourthly, new or existing forms...

  4. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  5. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  6. Local adaptation in brown trout early life-history traits: implications for climate change adaptability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, L.F.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Pertoldi, C.;

    2008-01-01

      Knowledge of local adaptation and adaptive potential of natural populations is becoming increasingly relevant due to anthropogenic changes in the environment, such as climate change. The concern is that populations will be negatively affected by increasing temperatures without the capacity...... and heritable variation in phenotypic plasticity suggest that although increasing temperatures are likely to affect some populations negatively, they may have the potential to adapt to changing temperature regimes.  ...

  7. Migration from atolls as climate change adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas Ladegaard Kümmel; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2014-01-01

    Adaptive strategies are important for reducing the vulnerability of atoll communities to climate change and sea level rise in both the short and long term. This paper seeks to contribute to the emerging discourse on migration as a form of adaptation to climate change based on empirical studies...... in the two atoll communities, Reef Islands and Ontong Java, which are located in the periphery of Solomon Islands. The paper will outline current migration patterns in the two island groups and discuss how some of this migration may contribute to adaptation to climate change and other stresses. It shows...... in adaptation to climate change in exposed atoll communities, addressing some of the barriers to migration seems logical. This may be done by efforts to stimulate migrant income opportunities, by improving migrant living conditions and by improving the transport services to the islands....

  8. Integrating climate change adaptation into forest management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spittlehouse, D.L. [British Columbia Ministry of Forestry, Victoria, BC (Canada)

    2005-10-01

    Although forest management decisions are often based on the assumption that the climate will remain relatively stable throughout a forest's life-time, the prospect of future climate change has challenged current decision-making processes. This paper reviewed challenges currently impeding responses to climate change and presented suggestions for integrating adaptation strategies into forest management. Adaptive actions reduce the risks of climate change by preparing for adverse effects and capitalizing on the benefits. However, the importance of forest ecosystems to society means that the direction and timing of adaptation should be carefully managed. Uncertainty in the magnitude and timing of future climate change is a significant challenge. In addition, different ecosystems are vulnerable to different aspects of change, and an important component of adaptation will be the balancing of different values. The size of the forested land base in most of Canada will mean that much of the forest will have to adjust to climatic changes without human intervention. Seed planning zones, reforestation standards and hydrologic and wildlife management guidelines are designed for the current climate regime, and there are currently no regulatory requirements for adaptation strategies. Societal adaptation will be a major component of any forest management adaptation strategy, and demands on forest resources will need to be revised. Adaptation to reduce the vulnerability of resources such as water quality and quantity and biological conservation will become high priorities in some areas. It was suggested that the adaptation of culverts, bridges and roads should be incorporated into an infrastructure replacement cycle. Areas for preservation where the future climate will become suitable for species whose current range is threatened by climate change should be identified. Adapting the forest through reforestation after disturbances such as harvest or fire was recommended. Other

  9. Smallholder Irrigation and Crop Diversification under Climate Change in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence and Potential for Simultaneous Food Security, Adaptation, and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R.; Burney, J. A.; Postel, S.

    2011-12-01

    The poorest populations in sub-Saharan Africa live in rural areas and depend on smallholder agricultural production for their livelihoods. Over 90% of all farmed area in Sub-Saharan Africa is rainfed, with crop production centering on 3-5 months of rainfall. Rapid population growth is reducing land per capita ratios, and low yields for staple crops make food security an increasingly challenging goal. Malnutrition, most noticeable among children, peaks during the dry season. Recent data on aggregate economic growth and investment in Africa hide these patterns of seasonal hunger and income disparity. Perhaps most perversely, smallholder farmers in the dry tropical regions of sub-Saharan Africa are (and will continue to be) some of the earliest and hardest hit by climate change. Our research focuses on the role distributed, small-scale irrigation can play in food security and climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa. As Asia's agricultural success has demonstrated, irrigation, when combined with the availability of inputs (fertilizer) and improved crop varieties, can enable year-round production, growth in rural incomes, and a dramatic reduction in hunger. The situation in Africa is markedly different: agroecological conditions are far more heterogeneous than in Asia and evaporation rates are relatively high; most smallholders lack access to fertilizers; and market integration is constrained by infrastructure, information, and private sector incentives. Yet from a resource perspective, national- and regional-level estimates suggest that Internal Renewable Water Resources (IRWR) are nowhere near fully exploited in Sub-Saharan Africa -- even in the Sudano-Sahel, which is considered to be one of the driest regions of the continent. Irrigation can thus be implemented on a much larger scale sustainably. We will present (a) results from controlled, experimental field studies of solar-powered drip irrigation systems in the rural Sudano-Sahel region of West Africa. We

  10. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country's vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations

  11. Adapting to Climate Change in ECA

    OpenAIRE

    Fay, Marianne; Block, Rachel; Carrington, Tim; Ebinger, Jane

    2009-01-01

    Contrary to popular perception, Europe and Central Asia (ECA) countries are significantly threatened by climate change, with serious risks already in evidence. The vulnerability and adaptive capacity of ECA countries to climate change over the next two decades will be dominated by socio-economic factors and legacy issues. The next decade offers a window of opportunity for ECA to make its d...

  12. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    authorities for adoption; • Simulating the effectiveness of the implementation of certain adaptation measures to address climate change impacts on agriculture; • Developing a stakeholder engagement strategy; • Increasing the knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural areas covered by the project, thus enabling well informed decision-making and enhancing readiness for early action in order to address the potential damages and minimize threats posed by climate change; • Developing a framework for mainstreaming agricultural adaptation measures into relevant national and regional policies; • Promoting the replication of the proposed methodology in order to ensure proper coordination of national and regional policies and between authorities.

  13. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered. PMID:23185568

  14. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  15. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristina Blennow

    Full Text Available Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01 to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03 for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008 to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02. We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  16. Climate change and Canadian mining : opportunities for adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This presentation highlighted the vulnerability of the Canadian mining industry to the consequences of climate change. Opportunities for adaptation were highlighted and recommendations were provided for industry and government. Case studies from Ontario, Quebec, Saskatchewan, Yukon and the Northwest Territories provided insights of the mining industry's vulnerability to changes in water levels, increased precipitation and warm winter temperatures that result in ice road closures. The presentation demonstrated that most mine infrastructure is not designed for a changing climate. The results of 2 surveys indicated that between 34 and 48 per cent of mining stakeholders believe that climate change is already having a negative impact on their operations. However, despite the perceived threat most companies are not pro-actively planning for climate change. The surveys indicated that the dominant response by the mining sector is taking action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation. The opportunities that exist for the mining industry to understand and adapt to a changing climate include more effective communication of the potential risks posed by climate change and identifying the most cost effective measures and technologies that will allow mines to adapt to climate change. The authors recommended that regulations are needed to mandate that mines plan for climate change both during their operational lifespan and through decommissioning. Regulatory certainty in regards to greenhouse gas mitigation should be established along with improved climate modeling and communication of climate change projections. figs.

  17. Interpreting climate data visualisations to inform adaptation decisions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph D. Daron

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The appropriate development of graphical visualisations to communicate climate data is fundamental to the provision of climate services to guide climate change adaptation decisions. However, at present there is a lack of empirical evidence, particularly in Africa, to help climate information providers determine how best to communicate and display climate data. To help address this issue, an online survey, primarily targeted at the African vulnerability, impacts and adaptation community, was designed and disseminated widely. The survey examines the interpretation of climate data as a function of the style and information content of graphical visualisations. It is shown that choices made when constructing the visualisations, such as presenting percentile information versus showing the range, significantly impact on interpretation. Results also show that respondents who interpret a higher likelihood of future changes to climate, based on the visualisation of climate model projections, express greater confidence in their interpretations. The findings have relevance to the climate risk community in Africa and elsewhere across the world, and imply that a naïve approach to visualising climate data risks misinterpretation and unjustified levels of trust, with the potential to misinform adaptation and policy decisions.

  18. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Clements, R.; Quezada, A.; Torres, J. (Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru)); Haggar, J. (Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom))

    2011-08-15

    This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

  19. Potential climate effects on Japanese rice productivity

    OpenAIRE

    TANAKA, KENTA; Managi, Shunsuke; Kondo, Katsunobu; Masuda, Kiyotaka; Yamamoto, Yasutaka

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change has become an important policy question in recent years. Agriculture is the economic activity most sensitive to climate change. We evaluate the dynamic effects of productivity change and individual efforts to adapt to climate change. Adaptation actions in agriculture are evaluated to determine how the climate affects production efficiency. In this paper, we use the bi-directional distance function method to measure Japanese rice production loss due to climate. We ...

  20. Climate Policy Must Favour Mitigation Over Adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    SCHUMACHER, Ingmar

    2016-01-01

    In climate change policy, adaptation tends to be viewed as beingas important as mitigation. In this article we present a simple yet generalargument for which mitigation must be preferred to adaptation.The argument rests on the observation that mitigation is a public goodwhile adaptation is a private one. This implies that the more one disaggregatesthe units in a social welfare function, i.e. the more one teasesout the public good nature of mitigation, the lower is average incomeand thus less ...

  1. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    , the inseparability of the development and climate agendas, and the rate of assimilation of climate and development information in key institutions. They are drawn from the Development Under Climate Change (DUCC) project carried out by UNU-WIDER of which the countries of the Greater Zambeze Valley formed a part......In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate...... change and the ongoing internalization thereof by key institutions in developing countries. The articles in this special issue set forth a set of technical contributions to this improved understanding. We also summarize five major lessons related to uncertainty, extreme events, timing of impacts...

  2. Climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector : workshop report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This workshop on climate change adaptation in the Canadian energy sector was conducted in order to develop a climate change work plan for the Council of Energy Ministers (CEM) as well as to develop awareness and dialogue within Canada's energy sector. Industry members and government officials identified findings from recent assessment reports on climate change adaptation and discussed ways in which the international oil and gas industry is currently adapting its operations and technologies to ensure continuing safety and risk mitigation. The use of hydrological models to forecast the potential impacts of climate change was discussed, and the drivers of climate change adaptation were reviewed. A total of 26 topics were identified, 13 of which were prioritized for group discussions based on their impact and urgency. The following 5 topics were finally identified as top priority topics: (1) climate change adaptation science, (2) co-ordinated local, provincial, national, and international policies, (3) information sharing and knowledge transfer, (4) aging infrastructure and increasing demand, and (5) market mechanisms for adaptation. Four presentations were given during the initial portion of the workshop. 4 tabs., 1 fig

  3. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete SUDS project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study thereby investigating...... the multiple understandings “Sustainable Urban Drainages System’s” (SUDS). Several different perspectives are identified with regard to what are and what will become the main climate problems in the urban environment as well as what are considered to be the best responses to these problems. Building...... on the actor-network inspired theory of “urban green assemblages” we argue that at least three different assemblages can be identified in urban climate change adaptation. Each assemblage frames problems and responses differently, and thereby assigns different types of roles to homeowners. As climate change...

  4. Adaptation to climate change in agriculture: evaluation of options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adaptation was defined as the responses by stakeholders to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects to reduce vulnerability to adverse impacts or damage potential, or to realize opportunities associated with climate change. Planned policy initiatives representing change in the agricultural system were discussed in this report. An evaluation of adaptation options needed to be carried out before one could determine which adaptations should be promoted or implemented. The overall merit, suitability, utility or appropriateness of potential adaptation strategies or measures were examined. One interesting methodology was the Multiple Criteria Evaluation (MCE), which is designed to assess alternatives using more than one criterion. The criteria selected for this evaluation were: effectiveness, economic efficiency, flexibility, institutional compatibility, farmer implementation, and independent benefits. A selection of three adaptation options was made to better illustrate the utility of the evaluation framework., as follows: crop diversification, adoption of irrigation, and increase use of crop insurance. 122 refs., 6 tabs., 6 figs

  5. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilczek, Amity M.; Cooper, Martha D.; Korves, Tonia M.; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-01-01

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species’ native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species’ native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation. PMID:24843140

  6. Adaptation to climate change in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report first comments some data and facts illustrating climate change. It discusses its various impacts (extreme meteorological events, dramatic impacts on ecosystems with the possible disappearance of some vegetal and animal species, crisis regarding food resources, health risks, population migrations notably because of sea level rise), and briefly evokes these impacts in France. It outlines the need for adaptation and describes the different adaptation principles: reduction of vulnerability, and anticipation of changes and of their impacts. It comments how adaptation and mitigation are two complementary approaches. It presents the French State strategy with its national adaptation strategy, its national adaptation plan, the mandatory elaboration of regional schemes for climate, air and energy, and the action of local communities

  7. Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya-Muñoz, Dahyann; Metzger, Marc J; Stuart, Neil; Wilson, A Meriwether W; Alvarez, Luis

    2016-12-01

    Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change.

  8. Adaptation of Asia-Pacific forests to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guangyu Wang; John L Innes; Tongli Wang; Haijun Kang; Shari Mang; Brianne Riehl; Brad Seely; Shirong Liu; Futao Guo; Qinglin Li

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to the stability and productivity of forest ecosystems throughout the Asia-Pacific region. The loss of forests due to climate-induced stress will have extensive adverse impacts on biodiversity and an array of ecosystem services that are essential for the maintenance of local economies and public health. Despite their importance, there is a lack of decision-support tools required to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on Asia-Pacific ecosystems and economies and to aid in the development of regionally appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The project Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change, summarized herein, aims to address this lack of knowledge and tools and to provide support for regional managers to develop effective policy to increase the adaptive capacity of Asia-Pacific forest ecosystems. This objective has been achieved through the following activities:(1) development of a high-resolution climate downscaling model, ClimateAP, appli-cable to any location in the region; (2) development of climate niche models to evaluate how climate change might affect the distribution of suitable climatic conditions for regionally important tree species;(3) development and application of forest models to assess alternative manage-ment strategies in the context of management objectives and the projected impacts of climate change;(4) evaluation of models to assess forest fire risk and the relationship between forest fire and climate change;(5) development of a technique to assess ecosystem carbon storage using LiDAR; and (6) evaluation of how vegetation dynamics respond to climate change using remote sensing technol-ogy. All project outputs were developed with a focus on communication and extension to facilitate the dissemina-tion of results to regional forest resource managers to support the development of effective mitigation and adaptation policy.

  9. A Framework for Benefit-Cost Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The potential damages of climate change and climate variability are dependent upon the responses or adaptations that people make to their changing environment. By adapting the management of resources, the mix and methods of producing goods and services, choices of leisure activities, and other behavior, people can lessen the damages that would otherwise result. A framework for assessing the benefits and costs of adaptation to both climate change and climate variability is described in the paper. The framework is also suitable for evaluating the economic welfare effects of climate change, allowing for autonomous adaptation by private agents. The paper also briefly addresses complications introduced by uncertainty regarding the benefits of adaptation and irreversibility of investments in adaptation. When investment costs are irreversible and there is uncertainty about benefits, the usual net present value criterion for evaluating the investment gives the wrong decision. If delaying an adaptation project is possible, and if delay will permit learning about future benefits of adaptation, it may be preferable to delay the project even if the expected net present value is positive. Implications of this result for adaptation policy are discussed in the paper. 11 refs

  10. Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has been prepared in close cooperation with the four cities of the metropolitan area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen), the Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority HSY and other municipal, regional and state level organisations. In the strategy, strategic starting points and policies with which the metropolitan area prepares for the consequences of climate change, are compiled. The Helsinki Metropolitan Area adaptation strategy concentrates on the adaptation of the built and urban environment to the changing climate. The vision of the strategy is climate proof city - the future is built now. The strategy aims to (1) assess the impacts of climate change in the area, (2) prepare for the impacts of climate change and to extreme weather events and (3) to reduce the vulnerabilities of the area to climate variability and change. The target is to secure the well-being of the citizens and the functioning of the cities also in the changing climate conditions. The preparation of the adaptation strategy started in 2009 by producing the background studies. They include the regional climate and sea level scenarios, modelling of river floods in climate change conditions and a survey of climate change impacts in the region. Also, existing programmes, legislation, research and studies concerning adaptation were collected. The background studies are published in a report titled 'The Helsinki metropolitan area climate is changing - Adaptation strategy background studies' (in Finnish) (HSY 2010). HSY coordinated the strategy preparation. The work was carried out is close cooperation with the experts of the metropolitan area cities, regional emergency services, Ministry of the Environment, Helsinki Region Transport Authority and other regional organisations. The strategy work has had a steering group that consists of representatives of the cities and other central cooperation partners. The

  11. The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts. (letter)

  12. The state of climate change adaptation in the Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, James D.; McDowell, Graham; Jones, Julie

    2014-10-01

    The Arctic climate is rapidly changing, with wide ranging impacts on natural and social systems. A variety of adaptation policies, programs and practices have been adopted to this end, yet our understanding of if, how, and where adaptation is occurring is limited. In response, this paper develops a systematic approach to characterize the current state of adaptation in the Arctic. Using reported adaptations in the English language peer reviewed literature as our data source, we document 157 discrete adaptation initiatives between 2003 and 2013. Results indicate large variations in adaptation by region and sector, dominated by reporting from North America, particularly with regards to subsistence harvesting by Inuit communities. Few adaptations were documented in the European and Russian Arctic, or have a focus on the business and economy, or infrastructure sectors. Adaptations are being motivated primarily by the combination of climatic and non-climatic factors, have a strong emphasis on reducing current vulnerability involving incremental changes to existing risk management processes, and are primarily initiated and led at the individual/community level. There is limited evidence of trans-boundary adaptations or initiatives considering potential cross-scale/sector impacts.

  13. Climate Change Adaptation Actions in Tirana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JAMARBER MALLTEZI

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Tirana has recently experienced changing weather patterns such as rising temperatures and occurrence of extreme weather events. Such events – in combination with a rapid increase of urban areas and impermeable cement covering the natural soil in the city – have caused increased flooding, riverside erosion, delayed traffic, increased spending for cooling during the summer, increased need for health services, and an urgent need to plan the city smartly. Tirana is preparing a set of Climate Change Adaptation Actions in order to manage the posed risks and adapt to climate change. The city administration should integrate climate change adaptation in their management and planning processes. This exercise was prepared by using the Climate Compass tool and included the vulnerability assessment of different sectors in the city, evaluated the risks posed to vulnerable target groups and proposed feasible adaptation options. It outlines mostly actions to be taken to manage risks and build climate resilience across essential public infrastructure and services. Such actions would require better land use planning to maintain – and where possible increase – the natural areas and leave the natural soil undisturbed. Key to success is integrating adaptation concepts into the city planning and development investments. The result is a novel approach and guidance to better integrate adaptation concepts in city planning and new technologies to prevent heat waves, flood risks in the city, etc.Administrators of the Tirana Municipality should keep in mind and integrate the climate change adaptationactions into daily planning and decision making for several sectors including urban planning, transport, public services, water infrastructure, emergency response, etc. in order to ensure sustainable development for the city.

  14. Leadership within regional climate change adaptation networks: the case of climate adaptation officers in Northern Hesse, Germany

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiller, S.J.; Meijerink, S.V.

    2016-01-01

    In the climate adaptation literature, leadership tends to be an understudied factor, although it may be crucial for regional adaptation governance. This article shows how leadership can be usefully conceptualized and operationalized within regional governance networks dealing with climate adaptation

  15. Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, Gregg; Jacobs, Katharine; Buizer, James

    2008-06-01

    Climate Change Adaptation for Water Managers; Oracle, Arizona, 4-5 February 2008; The most visible manifestation of climate change in the American Southwest is its effects on water resources. Since 1999, the region's water supplies and major rivers have been tested by burgeoning population growth and drought. Model projections suggest increasing drought severity and duration due to rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and enhanced atmospheric circulation from the tropics (Hadley circulation).

  16. Migration and adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tacoli, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    Climate change is having an undeniable impact on many human systems and behaviours, including population mobility. This is hardly surprising: migration is an adaptive response to changes in people's circumstances. Yet environmental factors are not the whole story. Socio-economic, political and cultural factors are also closely linked to population movement, and heavily influence vulnerability to both direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Shifts in migration patterns are a strategy of adaptation to complex transformations, and recognising and accommodating this is key in policies for sustainable development and poverty reduction in the context of growing environmental stress.

  17. Climate Change Adaptation Challenges and EO Business Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Bansal, Rahul; Del Rey, Maria; Mohamed, Ebrahim; Ruiz, Paz; Signes, Marcos

    Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, but is no longer a matter of just scientific concern. It encompasses economics, sociology, global politics as well as national and local politics, law, health and environmental security, etc. The challenge of facing the impacts of climate change is often framed in terms of two potential paths that civilization might take: mitigation and adaptation. On the one hand, mitigation involves reducing the magnitude of climate change itself and is composed of emissions reductions and geoengineering. On the other hand and by contrast, adaptation involves efforts to limit our vulnerability to climate change impacts through various measures. It refers to our ability to adjust ourselves to climate change -including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Therefore, we are now faced with a double challenge: next to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, we also need to adapt to the changing climate conditions. The use of satellites to monitor processes and trends at the global scale is essential in the context of climate change. Earth Observation has the potential to improve our predictive vision and to advance climate models. Space sciences and technologies constitute a significant issue in Education and Public Awareness of Science. Space missions face the probably largest scientific and industrial challenges of humanity. It is thus a fact that space drives innovation in the major breakthrough and cutting edge technological advances of mankind (techniques, processes, new products, … as well as in markets and business models). Technology and innovation is the basis of all space activities. Space agencies offer an entire range of space-related activities - from space science and environmental monitoring to industrial competitiveness and end-user services. More specifically, Earth Observation satellites have a unique

  18. Public perception of climate risk and adaptation in the UK: A review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea L. Taylor

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Like other countries, the United Kingdom faces the unavoidable challenge of adapting to a changing climate. However, public perceptions of the risk posed by climate change and support for adaptation policies vary between countries. This article provides a UK-specific review of climate change beliefs, risk perceptions regarding potential climate change impacts, and attitudes towards climate change adaptation. We report on differences between expert and public conceptualisations of climate change risks. We also examine the effects of psychological distancing, climate change awareness, and hazard experience on both concerns about climate change and perceptions of the weather-related risks posed by climate change. Additionally, we review the effects of emotion, agency, perceived responsibility, place attachment, personal values and uncertainty on the willingness of UK residents to support and engage with climate change adaptation. We outline the implications of these factors for climate risk communication and highlight key areas for future research.

  19. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  20. Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawler, Joshua J

    2009-04-01

    Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

  1. Rapid adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Angela M

    2016-08-01

    In recent years, amid growing concerns that changing climate is affecting species distributions and ecosystems, predicting responses to rapid environmental change has become a major goal. In this issue, Franks and colleagues take a first step towards this objective (Franks et al. 2016). They examine genomewide signatures of selection in populations of Brassica rapa after a severe multiyear drought. Together with other authors, Franks had previously shown that flowering time was reduced after this particular drought and that the reduction was genetically encoded. Now, the authors have sequenced previously stored samples to compare allele frequencies before and after the drought and identify the loci with the most extreme shifts in frequencies. The loci they identify largely differ between populations, suggesting that different genetic variants may be responsible for reduction in flowering time in the two populations. PMID:27463237

  2. A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation Planning in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empir...

  3. Hybrid Surface Mesh Adaptation for Climate Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ahmed Khamayseh; Valmor de Almeida; Glen Hansen

    2008-01-01

    Solution-driven mesh adaptation is becoming quite popular for spatial error control in the numerical simulation of complex computational physics applications, such as climate modeling. Typically, spatial adaptation is achieved by element subdivision (h adaptation) with a primary goal of resolving the local length scales of interest. A second, lesspopular method of spatial adaptivity is called "mesh motion" (r adaptation); the smooth repositioning of mesh node points aimed at resizing existing elements to capture the local length scales. This paper proposes an adaptation method based on a combination of both element subdivision and node point repositioning (rh adaptation). By combining these two methods using the notion of a mobility function, the proposed approach seeks to increase the flexibility and extensibility of mesh motion algorithms while providing a somewhat smoother transition between refined regions than is pro-duced by element subdivision alone. Further, in an attempt to support the requirements of a very general class of climate simulation applications, the proposed method is de-signed to accommodate unstructured, polygonal mesh topologies in addition to the most popular mesh types.

  4. Gaps in agricultural climate adaptation research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Debra

    2016-05-01

    The value of the social sciences to climate change research is well recognized, but notable gaps remain in the literature on adaptation in agriculture. Contributions focus on farmer behaviour, with important research regarding gender, social networks and institutions remaining under-represented.

  5. Governance of wicked climate adaptation problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Dewulf, A.; Breeman, G.E.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change adaptation has been called a “wicked problem par excellence.” Wicked problems are hard to define because ‘the formulation of the problem is the problem; they are considered a symptom of another problem; they are highly resistant to solutions and extremely interconnected with other pro

  6. Ecosystem based approaches to climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Jensen, Anne; Termansen, Mette;

    This report analyses the prospects and barriers of applying ecosystem based approaches systematically to climate adaptation in urban areas, taking the case of green roofs in Copenhagen Municipality. It looks at planning aspects of green roofs in Copenhagen as well as citizen views and preferences...

  7. Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

    2010-05-01

    Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

  8. Focus on climate projections for adaptation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feijt, Arnout; Appenzeller, Christof; Siegmund, Peter; von Storch, Hans

    2016-01-01

    Most papers in this focus issue on ‘climate and climate impact projections for adaptation strategies’ are solicited by the guest editorial team and originate from a cluster of projects that were initiated 5 years ago. These projects aimed to provide climate change and climate change adaptation information for a wide range of societal areas for the lower parts of the deltas of the Rhine and Meuse rivers, and particularly for the Netherlands. The papers give an overview of our experiences, methods, approaches, results and surprises in the process to developing scientifically underpinned climate products and services for various clients. Although the literature on interactions between society and climate science has grown over the past decade both with respect to policy-science framing in post-normal science (Storch et al 2011 J. Environ. Law Policy 1 1-15, van der Sluijs 2012 Nature and Culture 7 174-195), user-science framing (Berkhout et al 2014 Regional Environ. Change 14 879-93) and joint knowledge production (Hegger et al 2014 Regional Environ. Change 14 1049-62), there is still a lot to gain. With this focus issue we want to contribute to best practices in this quickly moving field between science and society.

  9. Equity in Adaptation to Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Most observers agree that equity has become a key condition for the success of a global agreement on climate, and that any deal that would seem inequitable would be doomed to fail. The UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) makes a distinction between developed countries, developing countries, and least advanced countries; as well as between vulnerable countries and particularly vulnerable countries. The first distinction has to do with equity in mitigation efforts, whereas the latter is concerned with equity in the allocation of adaptation funding (Mace 2006). Adaptation itself is poorly defined: the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) does not go further than defining it as the adjustment of human or natural systems confronted to a new or changing environment (IPCC 2007). It took a very long time for adaptation to be acknowledged as a key aspect of the fight against global warming. Funding mechanisms were long overdue when they were finally implemented, and remain heavily discussed. A sufficient amount of funding for adaptation appears today as the sine qua non condition for the participation of developing countries to a global deal on climate. This amount has been estimated at US$ 100 billion at least on a yearly basis, including support for mitigation efforts. However, though equity concerns have been placed at the core of the negotiation on mitigation efforts, they have been little addressed in the discussions on adaptation. As a result of this, the criteria that will be used to allocate the adaptation funding remain unclear and vague, which could be detrimental for the negotiation process as a whole. This paper aims to offer a new perspective on this issue, departing from the traditional perspective inspired by retributive justice. (author)

  10. Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

    2016-02-01

    Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.

  11. Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

  12. Scenario development and assessment of the potential impacts of climate and market changes on crops in Europe : Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios (AgriAdapt project)

    OpenAIRE

    Ewert, F.; Angulo, C.; Rumbaur, C.; Lock, R; Enders, A.; Adenauer, M.; Heckelei, T.; Ittersum, van, M.K.; Wolf, J; Rötter, R.

    2011-01-01

    The Netherlands are an important producer and exporter of agricultural products. Changes in climate, markets and policies may have a large impact on the agricultural sector and farmers will need to adapt to these changes. Sector and policy documents have, so far, insufficiently considered the impacts of climate change and increased climate variability on the sector.

  13. Practical adaptation to climate change in regional natural resources management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Full text: Full text: Recent climatic conditions (i.e. drier than average conditions for the last 10 years or more) have placed many water resource systems in south-eastern Australia near critical thresholds. Management systems are, or soon will be, at the limits of their adaptive capacity. While it is possible this situation largely reflects vulnerability to natural climatic variability, impacts of anthropogenic climate change may further expose the vulnerability of these systems. Water management in Australia has traditionally been carried out on the assumption that the historical record of rainfall, evaporation, streamflow and recharge is representative of current and future climatic conditions. In many circumstances, this does not adequately address the potential risks to supply security for towns, industry, irrigators and the environment. This is because the Australian climate varies markedly due to natural cycles that operate over periods of several years to several decades, and is also being increasingly affected by anthropogenic influences. Both factors will continue to influence Australia's climate, even if immediate action is taken to curtail greenhouse gas emissions. Long-term resource planning by water authorities must account for both climate variation and climate change to avoid over-allocation of water resources and to ensure economic activity based on utilisation of water resources is not unnecessarily restricted. Awareness of the vulnerability of water resources to anthropogenic climate change and uncertainty about the nature of those changes has lead to a reappraisal of which climate sequence(s) should be used in water resource planning

  14. Integrated Framework for an Urban Climate Adaptation Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omitaomu, O.; Parish, E. S.; Nugent, P.; Mei, R.; Sylvester, L.; Ernst, K.; Absar, M.

    2015-12-01

    Cities have an opportunity to become more resilient to future climate change through investments made in urban infrastructure today. However, most cities lack access to credible high-resolution climate change projection information needed to assess and address potential vulnerabilities from future climate variability. Therefore, we present an integrated framework for developing an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT). Urban-CAT consists of four modules. Firstly, it provides climate projections at different spatial resolutions for quantifying urban landscape. Secondly, this projected data is combined with socio-economic data using leading and lagging indicators for assessing landscape vulnerability to climate extremes (e.g., urban flooding). Thirdly, a neighborhood scale modeling approach is presented for identifying candidate areas for adaptation strategies (e.g., green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding). Finally, all these capabilities are made available as a web-based tool to support decision-making and communication at the neighborhood and city levels. In this paper, we present some of the methods that drive each of the modules and demo some of the capabilities available to-date using the City of Knoxville in Tennessee as a case study.

  15. National strategy for climate change adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This book expresses the French State's view on the way to deal with the issue of climate change adaptation. After having recalled the ineluctability of some observed changes, the actors involved in this adaptation, and some guideline principles to implement adaptation, a first chapter describes the context: international mobilization, climate data evolution, definition of new criteria and critical thresholds, relationship between adaptation, alleviation and sustainable development, tensions between long and short terms. It discusses the objectives: public security and health, alleviation of inequalities with respect to risks, cost reduction, natural heritage preservation. Nine strategic axes are then identified: to develop knowledge, to strengthen the survey system, to inform, to educate and to make all actors aware, to promote a territory-based approach, to finance adaptation actions, to use regulatory and law instruments, to support voluntary approaches and the dialogue with private actors, to take the overseas peculiarity into account, and to contribute to international exchanges. The next chapters are respectively dealing with transverse approaches (water, risk prevention, health, and biodiversity), sector-based insights (agriculture, energy and industry, transports, building and housing, tourism, banks and insurance companies), medium-based approach (cities, littoral and seas, mountain, forest). The last part deals with the implementation issue

  16. Adapting to climate change in Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The intersection of present vulnerability and the prospect of climate change in Africa warrants proactive action now to reduce the risk of large-scale, adverse impacts. The process of planning adaptive strategies requires a systematic evaluation of priorities and constraints, and the involvement of stakeholders. An overview of climate change in Africa and case studies of impacts for agriculture and water underlie discussion of a typology of adaptive responses that may be most effective for different stakeholders. The most effective strategies are likely to be to reduce present vulnerability and to enhance a broad spectrum of capacity in responding to environmental, resource and economic perturbations. In some cases, such as design of water systems, an added risk factor should be considered. 2 figs., 7 tabs., 48 refs

  17. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Coastal erosion and flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Linham, M.M.; Nicholls, R.J. (Univ. of Southampton (United Kingdom))

    2010-11-15

    This guidebook is intended to be a practical tool for use by coastal zone managers in developing countries. The aim is to provide best practice guidance and assist these managers in assessing their evolving adaptation needs and help them to prepare action plans for adapting to climate change in the coastal zone. The guidebook first reviews the main physical and societal impacts of climate change in the coastal zone. It then considers the process of adaptation to erosion and flooding/inundation hazards where major impacts may occur and a range of adaptation technologies are best developed. Thirteen of these adaptation technologies are presented in this guide, representing examples of the protect, accommodate or (planned) retreat approaches to adaptation. While this does not represent an exhaustive list of the adaptation technologies that are available, these technologies are among those most widely used/considered in the coastal zone today. All the technologies considered are relevant to climate change adaptation and collectively, more widespread application is expected in the future under climate change and rising sea levels. For each adaptation technology the following issues are addressed: (1) definition and description; (2) technical advantages and disadvantages; (3) institutional and organisational requirements; (4) potential costs and opportunities; and (5) barriers to implementation; followed by a case study example. We have endeavoured to include developing country examples wherever possible, but as there is less activity and less documentation of developing world projects and some technologies are barely used in the developing world, this is not always possible. Knowledge and capacity building requirements and monitoring technologies are considered and contrasted across all 13 adaptation technologies. Finally, more detailed sources are indicated. Each adaptation technology has widely varying advantages and disadvantages. As such, selection of measures

  18. Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

    OpenAIRE

    Stefania Munaretto; Giuseppina Siciliano; Margherita E. Turvani

    2014-01-01

    Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate adaptation, adaptive governance seems to be a promising approach for improving climate adaptation governance. However, the adaptive governance literature has so far paid little attention to decisi...

  19. Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability: Do It Now or Wait and See?

    OpenAIRE

    Narita, Daiju; Quaas, Martin F.

    2012-01-01

    As growing attention is paid to climate change adaptation as an actual policy issue, the significant meaning of climate variability in adaptation decisions is beginning to be recognized. By using a real option framework for adaptation in agricultural production, we shed light on how climate change and climate variability affect individuals' (farmers') investment decisions with regard to adaptation (switching from rainfed to irrigated farming). The option value delays adaptation easily for sev...

  20. Unintended outcomes of farmers’ adaptation to climate variability: deforestation and conservation in Calakmul and Maya biosphere reserves

    OpenAIRE

    Claudia Rodriguez-Solorzano

    2014-01-01

    Minimizing the impact of climate change on farmer livelihoods is crucial, but adaptation efforts may have unintended consequences for ecosystems, with potential impacts on farmers' welfare. Unintended outcomes of climate adaptation strategies have been widely discussed, however, empirical exploration has been neglected. Grounded in scholarship on climate adaptation, environmental governance, social–ecological systems, and land-use change, this paper studies whether farmers’ climate adaptation...

  1. Winter wren populations show adaptation to local climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Catriona A; Robinson, Robert A; Pearce-Higgins, James W

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of evolutionary responses to climate change have focused on phenological responses to warming, and provide only weak evidence for evolutionary adaptation. This could be because phenological changes are more weakly linked to fitness than more direct mechanisms of climate change impacts, such as selective mortality during extreme weather events which have immediate fitness consequences for the individuals involved. Studies examining these other mechanisms may be more likely to show evidence for evolutionary adaptation. To test this, we quantify regional population responses of a small resident passerine (winter wren Troglodytes troglodytes) to a measure of winter severity (number of frost days). Annual population growth rate was consistently negatively correlated with this measure, but the point at which different populations achieved stability (λ = 1) varied across regions and was closely correlated with the historic average number of frost days, providing strong evidence for local adaptation. Despite this, regional variation in abundance remained negatively related to the regional mean number of winter frost days, potentially as a result of a time-lag in the rate of evolutionary response to climate change. As expected from Bergmann's rule, individual wrens were heavier in colder regions, suggesting that local adaptation may be mediated through body size. However, there was no evidence for selective mortality of small individuals in cold years, with annual variation in mean body size uncorrelated with the number of winter frost days, so the extent to which local adaptation occurs through changes in body size, or another mechanism remains uncertain.

  2. Volume 3 Chapter 1: Mitigation and adaptation to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mechler, R.; Nakicenovic, N.

    2014-01-01

    This chapter focuses on the needs and opportunities as well as the constraints and barriers with respect to mitigation and adaptation to climate change. While the chapter concentrates mainly on Austria, information is provided on the global and EU level to the extent they are relevant for Austria. Section 1.1 discusses the targets already specified for mitigation at the global level, as well as technologies that are already available or are emerging with the potential to meet the challenges a...

  3. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  4. Climate change and agricultural adaptation in Sri Lanka: a review

    OpenAIRE

    Esham, Mohamed; Garforth, Chris

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is inevitable and will continue into the next century. Since the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka is one of the most vulnerable to climate change, a thorough understanding of climate transition is critical for formulating effective adaptation strategies. This paper provides an overview of the status of climate change and adaptation in the agricultural sector in Sri Lanka. The review clearly indicates that climate change is taking place in Sri Lanka in terms of rainfall variabil...

  5. Impact of climate change and agriculture adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The author outlines and discusses the various impacts climate change can have on agriculture, notably due to the increase of CO2 and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, to temperature increase, to the modification of rainfalls, and therefore to differences in evaporation, drainage, run-off, cloud cover. He notably discusses the impact in terms of photosynthesis, of crop production in tempered or tropical regions. He also discusses the impact of extreme events (notably frost), comments how recent evolutions noticed by farmers could prefigure the future. He addresses the issue of adaptation which could mean a change of local practices or a displacement of activities

  6. Science questions for implementing climate refugia for cold-water fish as an adaptation strateby

    Science.gov (United States)

    Managing climate refugia has been proposed as a potential adaptation strategy that may be useful for protecting the biotic integrity of watersheds under a changing climate. Paleo-ecological evidence suggests that refugia allowed species to persist through prior periods of climate...

  7. [Review on farmer's climate change perception and adaptation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xue-Yan

    2014-08-01

    As the most serious challenge that the humankind is facing, climate change has been strengthened vulnerability in many countries and regions, and how to scientifically adapt to climate change has become the global issue of common concern to the international community today. The impact of climate change on farming people depending on the nature resource is especially remarkable, and understanding farmers' adaptation mechanism and process is very important to effectively make the adaptation policy. As the basis of understanding the human response action, public perception has provided a new perspective to verify the farmers' adaptation mechanism and process about climate change. Based on the recent theoretical and empirical developments of farmers' perception and adaptation, the impact of climate change on the farmers' livelihood was analyzed, and the main adaptation obstacles which the farmers faced in response to climate change were summarized systematically. Then, we analyzed the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation, illuminated the key cognitive elements in the process of the farmers' climate change adaptation and introduced the framework to analyze the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation. At last, this review put forward the key questions which should be considered in study on the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation.

  8. Beyond Reduction: Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Universities and Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Rochelle; Fisher, Erica; McKenzie, Kyle

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to outline a unique six-step process for the inclusion of climate change adaption goals and strategies in a University Climate Change Plan. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed-method approach was used to gather data on campus climate change vulnerabilities and adaption strategies. A literature review…

  9. Climate Change Adaptation Options for the Congo Basin Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garderen, van L.; Ludwig, F.

    2012-01-01

    During the last decades, the importance and seriousness of climate change and it’s impacts have become more and more understood. The climate is already changing and therefor adaptation to these changes need to be made. Central Africa needs to adapt to climate change just as much as the rest of the w

  10. Everyday realities of climate change adaptation in Mozambique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Artur, L.; Hilhorst, D.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes discourses and practices of flood response and adaptation to climate change in Mozambique. It builds on recent publications on climate change adaptation that suggest that the successes and failures of adaptation highly depend on the cultural and political realms of societal perce

  11. Envelope as Climate Negotiator: Evaluating adaptive building envelope's capacity to moderate indoor climate and energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, James

    Through manipulation of adaptable opportunities available within a given environment, individuals become active participants in managing personal comfort requirements, by exercising control over their comfort without the assistance of mechanical heating and cooling systems. Similarly, continuous manipulation of a building skin's form, insulation, porosity, and transmissivity qualities exerts control over the energy exchanged between indoor and outdoor environments. This research uses four adaptive response variables in a modified software algorithm to explore an adaptive building skin's potential in reacting to environmental stimuli with the purpose of minimizing energy use without sacrificing occupant comfort. Results illustrate that significant energy savings can be realized with adaptive envelopes over static building envelopes even under extreme summer and winter climate conditions; that the magnitude of these savings are dependent on climate and orientation; and that occupant thermal comfort can be improved consistently over comfort levels achieved by optimized static building envelopes. The resulting adaptive envelope's unique climate-specific behavior could inform designers in creating an intelligent kinetic aesthetic that helps facilitate adaptability and resiliency in architecture.

  12. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-08-01

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  13. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs

  14. Benefits of Organic Agriculture as a Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy in Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Muller, Adrian

    2008-01-01

    Organic Agriculture (OA) as an adaptation strategy (AS) to Climate Change (CC) is a concrete and promising option for adaptation in rural communities. OA has additional potential as a mitigation strategy (MS). This text is a short review note on this topic. Adaptation and mitigation based on OA can build on well-established practice as OA is a sustainable livelihood strategy with decades of experience in several climate zones and under a wide range of specific local conditions. Given the larg...

  15. Roadmap towards justice in urban climate adaptation research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Linda; Chu, Eric; Anguelovski, Isabelle; Aylett, Alexander; Debats, Jessica; Goh, Kian; Schenk, Todd; Seto, Karen C.; Dodman, David; Roberts, Debra; Roberts, J. Timmons; Vandeveer, Stacy D.

    2016-02-01

    The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21) highlighted the importance of cities to climate action, as well as the unjust burdens borne by the world's most disadvantaged peoples in addressing climate impacts. Few studies have documented the barriers to redressing the drivers of social vulnerability as part of urban local climate change adaptation efforts, or evaluated how emerging adaptation plans impact marginalized groups. Here, we present a roadmap to reorient research on the social dimensions of urban climate adaptation around four issues of equity and justice: (1) broadening participation in adaptation planning; (2) expanding adaptation to rapidly growing cities and those with low financial or institutional capacity; (3) adopting a multilevel and multi-scalar approach to adaptation planning; and (4) integrating justice into infrastructure and urban design processes. Responding to these empirical and theoretical research needs is the first step towards identifying pathways to more transformative adaptation policies.

  16. Performative vulnerability: climate change adaptation policies and financing in Kiribati

    OpenAIRE

    Sophie Webber

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores some of the perverse effects of climate change adaptation policies and financing in the Republic of Kiribati, a low-lying island nation in the Central Pacific. I examine how encounters between financiers and government officials might produce vulnerability to climate change. I draw throughout from field research conducted in Kiribati, an archetypical ‘vulnerable-to-climate-change’ place, and a preeminent site for experimentation in climate change adaptation. By discussing ...

  17. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  18. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.;

    2006-01-01

    Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...... to the changing climate. The Quaternary geological record provides examples of organisms that responded to the climatic fluctuations of that period in each of these ways, but also indicates that the two are not alternative responses but components of the same overall predominantly spatial response. Species unable...

  19. Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-08-15

    The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

  20. Knowledge exchange for climate adaptation planning in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, Gregg; Orr, Barron

    2015-04-01

    In western North America, the combination of sustained drought, rapid ecosystem changes, and land use changes associated with urban population growth has motivated concern among ecosystem managers about the implications of future climate changes for the landscapes which they manage. Through literature review, surveys, and workshop discussions, we assess the process of moving from concern, to planning, to action, with an emphasis on questions, such as: What are the roles of boundary organizations in facilitating knowledge exchange? Which practices lead to effective interactions between scientists, decision-makers, and knowledge brokers? While there is no "one size fits all" science communication method, the co-production of science and policy by research scientists, science translators, and decision-makers, as co-equals, is a resource intensive, but effective practice for moving adaptation planning forward. Constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong communication links between predictions, impacts and solutions. Resource managers need information on the basics of regional climate variability and global climate change, region-specific projections of climate changes and impacts, frank discussion of uncertainties, and opportunities for candid exploration of these topics with peers and subject experts. Research scientists play critical roles in adaptation planning discussions, because they assist resource managers in clarifying the cascade of interactions leading to potential impacts and, importantly, because decision-makers want to hear the information straight from the scientists conducting the research, which bolsters credibility. We find that uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning. Candid exploration of the array of uncertainties, including those due to modeling, institutional, policy and economic factors, with practitioners, science

  1. Research Advances of Impacts of Climate Changes on Crop Climatic Adaptability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and output of crops were finally affected. The calculation method and application of agricultural products in recent years were summarized. Several questions about the response of agricultural crops to climate elements were proposed for attention.

  2. Economy of climatic change. From mitigation to adaptation policies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change adaptation policies are the subject of this thesis. It has been showed that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992) and the response strategies construction are characteristic of a pollutionist approach. This approach led to envision the question of climate change as a classic pollution and environment issue. As a result, this approach has generated a double bias to the disadvantage of adaptation compared to mitigation policies: adaptation has been confined in a secondary and marginal role in climate policies structuring, and with an inoperative conceptual and methodological framework for its implementation. The thesis proposes a deconstruction of this climate change conceptualization. Moreover, the major limits that characterize mitigation policies call into question the predominance given to them in climate policies construction. The 'pollutionist' approach deconstruction allows at first to show that adaptation policies definition and operationalization need to go beyond (i) the standard analytic framework of climate policies and, (ii) the climate change conceptualization as a classic pollution and environment management issue. The thesis then argues that adaptation has to be integrated in development promoting policies, which means that adaptation needs to be conceptualized no longer as an ad hoc management of pollution effects issue, but as a development issue. Whether in the proper context of adaptation policies, or more largely of climate policies, the thesis leaves open the questions of the viability, but also of the organization and financing modalities, of a climate regime which fits within development promoting. (author)

  3. HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH

  4. Climate Change Adaptation. Challenges and Opportunities for a Smart Urban Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Galderisi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the main environmental issues challenging cities in the 21th century. At present, more than half of the world population lives in cities and the latter are responsible for 60% to 80% of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which are the main causes of the change in climate conditions. In the meantime, they are seriously threatened by the heterogeneous climate-related phenomena, very often exacerbated by the features of the cities themselves. In the last decade, international and European efforts have been mainly focused on mitigation rather than on adaptation strategies. Europe is one of the world leaders in global mitigation policies, while the issue of adaptation has gained growing importance in the last years. As underlined by the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, even though climate change mitigation still remains a priority for the global community, large room has to be devoted to adaptation measures, in order to effectively face the unavoidable impacts and related economic, environmental and social costs of climate change (EC, 2013. Thus, measures for adaptation to climate change are receiving an increasing financial support and a growing number of European countries are implementing national and urban adaptation strategies to deal with the actual and potential climate change impacts. According to the above considerations, this paper explores strengths and weaknesses of current adaptation strategies in European cities. First the main suggestions of the European Community to improve urban adaptation to climate change are examined; then, some recent Adaptation Plans are analyzed, in order to highlight challenges and opportunities arising from the adaptation processes at urban level and to explore the potential of Adaptation Plans to promote a smart growth in the European cities.

  5. Payments for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptation to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel van de Sand

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The concept of payments for ecosystem services (PES has recently emerged as a promising tool for enhancing or safeguarding the provision of ecosystem services (ES. Although the concept has been extensively scrutinized in terms of its potential positive and negative impacts on the poor in developing countries, less attention has been paid to examining the role of PES in the context of adaptation to climate change. PES has some potential to contribute to adaptation to climate change, but there are also risks that it could undermine adaptation efforts. In order to maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs between PES and adaptation, it is important that the conceptual links between both are made explicit. The present article presents the main conceptual links between PES and adaptation to climate change and suggests ways of making PES pro-poor and pro-adaptation. Drawing upon the concepts of vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and socioecological systems, it is suggested that PES can potentially contribute to adaptation in three main ways: through enhancements in the provision of ecosystem services, by enhancing adaptive capacity in the way PES is designed and implemented, and by providing an incentive mechanism to adopt specific measures for adaptation to climate change. Reflecting on the lessons from the PES and poverty literature, the article suggests ways to make PES pro-poor and pro-adaptation and concludes with further research needs in this area.

  6. Quantification of biophysical adaptation benefits from Climate-Smart Agriculture using a Bayesian Belief Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Nijs, Patrick J.; Berry, Nicholas J.; Wells, Geoff J.; Reay, Dave S.

    2014-10-01

    The need for smallholder farmers to adapt their practices to a changing climate is well recognised, particularly in Africa. The cost of adapting to climate change in Africa is estimated to be $20 to $30 billion per year, but the total amount pledged to finance adaptation falls significantly short of this requirement. The difficulty of assessing and monitoring when adaptation is achieved is one of the key barriers to the disbursement of performance-based adaptation finance. To demonstrate the potential of Bayesian Belief Networks for describing the impacts of specific activities on climate change resilience, we developed a simple model that incorporates climate projections, local environmental data, information from peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion to account for the adaptation benefits derived from Climate-Smart Agriculture activities in Malawi. This novel approach allows assessment of vulnerability to climate change under different land use activities and can be used to identify appropriate adaptation strategies and to quantify biophysical adaptation benefits from activities that are implemented. We suggest that multiple-indicator Bayesian Belief Network approaches can provide insights into adaptation planning for a wide range of applications and, if further explored, could be part of a set of important catalysts for the expansion of adaptation finance.

  7. Selecting downscaled climate projections for water resource impacts and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

    2015-04-01

    Increasingly large ensembles of global and regional climate projections are being produced and delivered to the climate impact community. However, such an enormous amount of information can hardly been dealt with by some impact models due to computational constraints. Strategies for transparently selecting climate projections are therefore urgently needed for informing small-scale impact and adaptation studies and preventing potential pitfalls in interpreting ensemble results from impact models. This work proposes results from a selection approach implemented for an integrated water resource impact and adaptation study in the Durance river basin (Southern French Alps). A large ensemble of 3000 daily transient gridded climate projections was made available for this study. It was built from different runs of 4 ENSEMBLES Stream2 GCMs, statistically downscaled by 3 probabilistic methods based on the K-nearest neighbours resampling approach (Lafaysse et al., 2014). The selection approach considered here exemplifies one of the multiple possible approaches described in a framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies proposed by Vidal & Hingray (2014). It was chosen based on the specificities of both the study objectives and the characteristics of the projection dataset. This selection approach aims at propagating as far as possible the relative contributions of the four different sources of uncertainties considered, namely GCM structure, large-scale natural variability, structure of the downscaling method, and catchment-scale natural variability. Moreover, it took the form of a hierarchical structure to deal with the specific constraints of several types of impact models (hydrological models, irrigation demand models and reservoir management models). The implemented 3-layer selection approach is therefore mainly based on conditioned Latin Hypercube sampling (Christierson et al., 2012). The choice of conditioning

  8. Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change. Methodological Issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) convened a Workshop on Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change in Costa Rica in 1998 that involved more than 200 expects and incorporated views from many research communities. This paper summarizes the recommendations from the Workshop and profiles the contributions to the advancement of methodologies for adaptation science. 25 refs

  9. Urban Climate Adaptation in Landscape Architecture Design Studios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lenzholzer, S.

    2012-01-01

    The adaptation of cities to existing problems such as urban heat islands and to the expected effects of climate change asks for new focuses in urban design professions. Especially for landscape architects, many new assignments will occur within climate adaptation, because the ‘materials’ they work w

  10. The US Forest Service Framework for Climate Adaptation (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleaves, D.

    2013-12-01

    Public lands are changing in response to climate change and related stressors such that resilience-based management plans that integrate climate-smart adaptation are needed. The goal of these plans is to facilitate land managers' consideration of a range of potential futures while simplifying the complex array of choices and assumptions in a rigorous, defensible manner. The foundation for climate response has been built into recent Forest Service policies, guidance, and strategies like the climate change Roadmap and Scorecard; 2012 Planning Rule; Cohesive Wildland Fire Management strategy; and Inventory, Monitoring & Assessment strategy. This has driven the need for information that is relevant, timely, and accessible to support vulnerability assessments and risk management to aid in designing and choosing alternatives and ranking actions. Managers must also consider carbon and greenhouse gas implications as well as understand the nature and level of uncertainties. The major adjustments that need to be made involve: improving risk-based decision making and working with predictive models and information; evaluating underlying assumptions against new realities and possibilities being revealed by climate science; integrating carbon cycle science and a new ethic of carbon stewardship into management practices; and preparing systems for inevitable changes to ameliorate negative effects, capture opportunities, or accept different and perhaps novel ecosystem configurations. We need to avoid waiting for complete science that never arrives and take actions that blend science and experience to boost learning, reduce costs and irreversible losses, and buy lead time.

  11. Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Holmner, Åsa; Ng, Nawi; Nilsson, Maria; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of today’s most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health inf...

  12. Data Requirements for Developing Adaptations to Climate Variability and Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data. 12 refs

  13. Regional Collaborations to Combat Climate Change: The Climate Science Centers as Strategies for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, T. L.; Palmer, R. N.

    2014-12-01

    The Department of Interior Northeast Climate Science Center (NE CSC) is part of a federal network of eight Climate Science Centers created to provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change. The consortium approach taken by the CSCs allows the academic side of the Centers to gather expertise across departments, disciplines, and even institutions. This interdisciplinary approach is needed for successfully meeting regional needs for climate impact assessment, adaptive management, education, and stakeholder outreach. Partnership with the federal government facilitates interactions with the key on-the-ground stakeholders who are able to operationalize the results and conclusions of that research, monitor the progress of management actions, and provide feedback to refine future methodology and decisions as new information on climate impacts is discovered. For example, NE CSC researchers are analyzing the effect of climate change on the timing and volume of seasonal and annual streamflows and the concomitant effects on ecological and cultural resources; developing techniques to monitor tree range dynamics as affected by natural disturbances which can enable adaptation of projected climate impacts; studying the effects of changes in the frequency and magnitude of drought and stream temperature on brook trout habitats, spatial distribution and population persistence; and conducting assessments of northeastern regional climate projections and high-resolution downscaling. Project methods are being developed in collaboration with stakeholders and results are being shared broadly with federal, state, and other partners to implement and refine effective and adaptive management actions.

  14. Scenario development and assessment of the potential impacts of climate and market changes on crops in Europe : Assessing the adaptive capacity of agriculture in the Netherlands to the impacts of climate change under different market and policy scenarios (AgriAdapt project)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Angulo, C.; Rumbaur, C.; Lock, R.; Enders, A.; Adenauer, M.; Heckelei, T.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Wolf, J.; Rötter, R.

    2011-01-01

    The Netherlands are an important producer and exporter of agricultural products. Changes in climate, markets and policies may have a large impact on the agricultural sector and farmers will need to adapt to these changes. Sector and policy documents have, so far, insufficiently considered the impact

  15. The Guanajuato Communication about the Potential for Implementation of Conservation Practices for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation to Achieve Food Security in Mexico During the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    The scientific literature reports that climate change will impact weather in North America, with projections for a drier and hotter southeastern United States and northwestern Mexico. The areas of Mexico that are projected to be impacted cover important grain areas of the country. Additionally, seve...

  16. The Nanchang communication about the potential for the implementation of conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve food security in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Several recent peer reviewed manuscripts have reported on the great challenges humanity is confronting during the XXI century, including a changing climate, depletion of water resources from groundwater and/or snow caps sources that are needed for agricultural production, deforestation, desertificat...

  17. Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roopali Phadke

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The vulnerabilities and health burdens of climate change fall disproportionately upon lower income communities and communities of color. Yet the very groups who are most affected by climate change impacts are least likely to be involved in climate adaptation discussions. These communities face critical barriers to involvement including historical disenfranchisement, as well as a sense that climate change is distant and not personally relevant. Boundary organizations are increasingly playing an important role in bringing science to bear on policy decision-making with respect to climate change adaptation, an issue fraught with political and ideological tensions. Our project aimed to engage underrepresented communities in climate change adaptation decision-making using a neighborhood consensus conference model developed and tested in several diverse districts of Saint Paul, Minnesota. Our partnership, a “linked chain” of boundary organizations, devised a neighborhood consensus conference model to present best-available climate data as tangible, place-based scenarios. In so doing, we made climate change “personal” for those who remain outside of climate change planning discourses and opened an opportunity for them to assess their community’s vulnerabilities and communicate their priorities for public investment. Our neighborhood-based model built trust and social capital with local residents and allowed us to bring new voices into conversations around climate change adaptation concerns and priorities. We believe this work will have a long term impact on local climate adaptation planning decisions.

  18. Climate Changea Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Patrick Mwendwa; Richard A. Giliba

    2012-01-01

    To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate chang- es and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. There- fore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.

  19. Building resilience: how the urban poor can drive climate adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swalheim, Sarah; Dodman, David

    2008-11-15

    Adaptation – preparing for and coping with climate impacts – is now a key issue in climate negotiations. This is real progress from a decade ago, when mitigation alone dominated the climate agenda. But adaptation itself needs to move on. The 900 million urban dwellers living in poverty worldwide will likely be among the worst affected by climate change, yet they hardly feature in adaptation policies and practices. These people, most living in the world's poorer countries, urgently need efficient, cost-effective solutions. Community-based adaption is one. Now widely used in rural areas, CBA allows local people to identify and address adaptation issues, building a lasting legacy of skills and ownership. But for CBA to work in urban areas, adaptation funding needs to reach the grassroots organisations and city governments that will initiate and deliver it.

  20. Indonesian National Policy on Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Wahyu Yun Santoso

    2015-01-01

    From its arousal, the issue of climate change or global warming has become a distinct global trend setter in multidisciplinary discussion, including in the law perspective. Within legal discourse, the issue of climate change developed rapidly into several aspect, not only about adaptation nor mitigation, especially since the plurality of moral conviction relevant to the climate change facts. As a global matter, each country has the responsibility to adapt and mitigate with its own characte...

  1. Climate Change Adaptation Options for the Congo Basin Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Garderen, van, K.J.; Ludwig, F

    2012-01-01

    During the last decades, the importance and seriousness of climate change and it’s impacts have become more and more understood. The climate is already changing and therefor adaptation to these changes need to be made. Central Africa needs to adapt to climate change just as much as the rest of the world. This report is focused on the COMIFAC countries, or the Congo River Basin countries: Cameroon, Equatorial Guinea, Sao Tome & Principe, Gabon, Republic of Congo, Central African Republic, ...

  2. Adaptation to climate change: Legal challenges for protected areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cliquet, An; Backes, Chris; Harris, Jim; Howsam, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Climate change will cause further loss of biodiversity. As negative effects are already taking place, adaptive measures are required to protect biodiversity from the effects of climate change. The EU policy on climate change and biodiversity aims at improving a coherent ecological network in order t

  3. Adapting Dam and Reservoir Design and Operations to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, René; Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

    2013-04-01

    In order to identify the potential initiatives that the dam, reservoir and water resources systems owners and operators may undertake to cope with climate change issues, it is essential to determine the current state of knowledge of their impacts on hydrological variables at regional and local scales. Future climate scenarios derived from climate model simulations can be combined with operational hydrological modeling tools and historical observations to evaluate realistic pathways of future hydrological conditions for specific drainage basins. In the case of hydropower production those changes in hydrological conditions may have significant economic impacts. For over a decade the state owned hydropower producer Hydro Québec has been exploring the physical impacts on their watersheds by relying on climate services in collaboration with Ouranos, a consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change. Previous climate change impact analysis had been including different sources of climate simulation data, explored different post-processing approaches and used hydrological impact models. At a new stage of this collaboration the operational management of Hydro Quebec aspired to carry out a cost-benefit analysis of considering climate change in the refactoring of hydro-power installations. In the process of the project not only a set of scenarios of future runoff regimes had to be defined to support long term planning decisions of a dam and reservoir operator, but also the significance of uncertainties needed to be communicated and made understood. We provide insight into a case study that took some unexpected turns and leaps by bringing together climate scientists, hydrologists and hydro-power operation managers. The study includes the selection of appropriate climate scenarios, the correction of biases, the application of hydrological models and the assessment of uncertainties. However, it turned out that communicating the science properly and

  4. Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. de Bruin (Kelly); R.B. Dellink (Rob); A. Ruijs (Arjan); L. Bolwidt; M.W. van Buuren (Arwin); J. Graveland (Jaap); R.S. de Groot; P.J. Kuikman; S. Reinhard; R.P. Roetter (Reimund); V.C. Tassone (Valentina); A.P. Verhagen (Arianne); E.C. van Ierland (Ekko)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and

  5. Responsible Climate Change Adaptation : Exploring, analysing and evaluating public and private responsibilities for urban adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mees, Heleen

    2014-01-01

    Cities are vulnerable to climate change. To deal with climate change, city governments and private actors such as businesses and citizens need to adapt to its effects, such as sea level rise, storm surges, intense rainfall and heatwaves. However, adaptation planning and action is often hampered when

  6. Potential impacts of climatic change on European breeding birds.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Huntley

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental regions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For six climate scenarios for 2070-99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258-882 km in a direction between 341 degrees (NNW and 45 degrees (NE, depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72-89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31-53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50x50 km grid square would decrease by 6.8-23.2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.

  7. Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  8. Conservation strategies to adapt to projected climate change impacts in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    There is potential for climate change to have negative effects on agricultural production via extreme events (Pruski and Nearing, 2002b; Zhang et al., 2012; Walthall 2012), and there is a need to implement conservation practices for climate change adaptation (Delgado et al. 2011; 2013). Recent repo...

  9. Adaptive Capacity as antecedent to Climate Change Strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Hillmann, Julia

    2014-01-01

    Within the last decade research on climate change strategies and adaptive capacity emerged as the debate about climate change was intensified with the publishing of the Third Assessment Report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2001. That companies are facing risks and opportunities is not new and the awareness to address these issues is growing. However, there is still need for research in the field of corporate strategic response to climate change. Recently, research focuse...

  10. Adaptation to climate extremes: Experiences in the agricultural sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Various social and economic systems are at risk from variability in weather conditions. A realization of this fact has prompted endogenous adaptations to cope with weather variability. Climate change may overwhelm existing adaptive strategies. These systems would experience this change from the secular trends in first-order and higher order statistics of climate parameters (e.g., mean biotemperature, intensity, and inter-arrival times of extreme events). Historically, different human activities have formally or informally incorporated adaptation to climate conditions. Activities such as agriculture are influenced strongly by weather, yet through a variety of mechanisms, impacts are ameliorated. Taking agriculture as an example of a central and substantive system, the authors' study presents response strategies of oranges production -- a crop currently affected greatly by weather conditions. Understanding the adaptation mechanisms used today can be used to examine the cost and effectiveness of adaptive actions to future climate change

  11. 78 FR 65980 - Notice of Availability for Public Review and Comment: Draft EPA Climate Change Adaptation...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-04

    ... AGENCY Notice of Availability for Public Review and Comment: Draft EPA Climate Change Adaptation... have produced draft Climate Change Adaptation Implementation Plans (``Implementation Plans'') that... health and the environment. As EPA articulated in its draft Agency Climate Change Adaptation Plan,...

  12. Adaptation to climate change and variability in Canadian water resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A survey is presented of topics and issues related to the adaptation to climate change in Canadian water resources. These resources are seen as especially sensitive to changes in variability in climate and hydrology. Based on current knowledge of global warming, significant changes in climate and hydrology are plausible within a time period that is significant for water resource management. Global warming will tend to exacerbate existing water resources problems in the southern Prairies and the Great Lakes. The Prairies can expect increased drought during summer, and the Great Lakes can expect a decline in mean lake levels to historic lows. Measures for adapting to climate change include traditional practices (supply management), which stress system reliability. They provide some adaptation to climate change but are limited in their ability to respond to rapid change. Nontraditional and non-management measures stress flexibility and resilience. These measures also address other concerns and can be implemented immediately, before the effects of climate change are evident. Water resources managers require methods of assessing the vulnerability of water resources systems to climate change to help identify when and where adaptive measures should be applied. Adaptation to climate change requires ongoing observation and interpretation of climate, hydrology, and related environmental processes. 29 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  13. Nuclear power and climate change: The cost of adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For more than a decade, the international community has been voicing concern over growing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are believed to be the largest contributor to global warming and more generally to climate change. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an increase in the frequency of heat waves and droughts is expected in many parts of the world, as is that of storms, flooding and cold episodes. The potential consequences of this projected climate change have prompted calls to reduce the use of fossil fuels and to promote low-carbon energy sources such as renewables and nuclear power. At the same time, there has also been growing concern that without a rapid decrease in GHG emissions, climate change could occur at such a scale that it will have a significant impact on major economic sectors including the power generation sector. Although the expanded use of renewables will reduce emissions from the power sector, it will also increase the dependence of distribution systems and electricity production on climatic conditions. Thermal power plants, such as fossil fuel and nuclear, will be affected primarily by the diminishing availability of water and the increasing likelihood of heat waves, which will have an impact on the cooling capabilities and power output of plants. In its 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, the IEA underlined the need to address an additional challenge, the water-energy nexus: water needs for energy production are set to grow at twice the rate of energy demands over the next decades. It has thus become clear that the availability of water for cooling will be an important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects. Given the long operating life of nuclear reactors (60 years for Generation III designs), the possible impact of climate change on the operation and safety of nuclear power plants needs to be addressed at the design and siting stages in order to limit costly adaptation measures

  14. Partnering for climate change adaptations by Dutch housing associations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Roders

    2015-06-01

    partnering. These integrated methods aim to involve the construction sector early in the development of plans so that they can contribute their expertise. This creates a more efficient construction and maintenance process and delivers dwellings of higher quality.The housing associations cannot pre-empt all the effects of climate change alone. For adaptation measures at the neighbourhood level, they are dependent on collaboration with other stakeholders such as municipalities, but there are measures that can be applied at the building level, which falls within their range of influence. An example is the application of lighter colours on building façades in order to reflect radiation and reduce the air temperature close to the façades. The hazards of overflowing sewage systems caused by extreme precipitation can be reduced by applying measures to retain water temporarily, such as ‘green roofs’ or to ensure effective drainage such as open pavements. These measures reduce the peak load on the sewage system. Another effective measure is the use of materials that are not negatively affected by water so that if, despite all the precautionary measures, flooding does occur, the consequences would be less severe.Problem formulationThis research assesses the potential of adopting a partnering approach as a governance tool with which to increase the implementation of climate change adaptation measures like those described above. The housing stock owned by Dutch housing associations is taken as a case study. Involving the construction sector through a partnering approach is promising, since construction companies are the ones who carry out the works. Their early commitment reduces the risks of miscommunication or  failure and enhances opportunities for innovative solutions. By doing this, not only do housing associations take responsibility for their actions, but the construction sector as a whole gains more responsibility for solving societal challenges and is enabled to co

  15. Stimuli for municipal responses to climate adaptation: insights from Philadelphia – an early adapter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uittenbroek, C.J.; Janssen-Jansen, Leonie; Runhaar, H.A.C.

    2016-01-01

    An in-depth understanding of these stimuli is currently lacking in literature as most research has focussed on overcoming barriers to climate adaptation. The aim of this paper is to identify stimuli for municipal responses to climate adaptation and examine how they influence the governance approach

  16. Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fleming

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

  17. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  18. Adapting to climate change in China: achievements and challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Yongyuan; Cuccillato, Emanuele; Kelly, Ellen

    2011-11-15

    With millions of people dependent on natural resources and agriculture, China is very vulnerable to climate change. The need to adapt to future changes is gaining importance in the country's political agenda. The government's latest five-year plan, for example, is the first to include a section on adaptation, and the development of a national adaptation strategy is under way. But there are still major gaps in the knowledge and processes required to develop effective adaptation policies at national and local levels. Some of the key challenges include a lack of accurate regional climate models and vulnerability assessments, little integration across sectors and disciplines, and limited stakeholder engagement. The Adapting to Climate Change in China (ACCC) project is focused on these issues and is expected to significantly contribute to developing effective adaptation planning processes.

  19. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Hannah

    Full Text Available International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  20. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.; Schaik, van H.; Valk, van der M.

    2009-01-01

    Today’s climate variability already has a large impact on water supply and protection. Millions of people are affected every year by droughts and floods. Future climate change is likely to make things worse. Many people within the water sector are aware that climate change is affecting water resourc

  1. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  2. Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassie, B.T.; Asseng, S.; Rotter, R.P.; Hengsdijk, H.; Ruane, A.C.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Exploring adaptation strategies for different climate change scenarios to support agricultural production and food security is a major concern to vulnerable regions, including Ethiopia. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and explores specific adaptation option

  3. Climate Analogues for agricultural impact projection and adaptation – a reliability test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swen P.M. Bos

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The climate analogue approach is often considered a valuable tool for climate change impact projection and adaptation planning, especially for complex systems that cannot be modelled reliably. Important examples are smallholder farming systems using agroforestry or other mixed-cropping approaches. For the projected climate at a particular site of interest, the analogue approach identifies locations where the current climate is similar to these projected conditions. By comparing baseline-analogue site pairs, information on climate impacts and opportunities for adaptation can be obtained. However, the climate analogue approach is only meaningful, if climate is a dominant driver of differences between baseline and analogue site pairs. For a smallholder farming setting on Mt. Elgon in Kenya, we tested this requirement by comparing yield potentials of maize and coffee (obtained from the IIASA Global Agro-ecological Zones dataset among 50 close analogue sites for different future climate scenarios and models, and by comparing local ecological knowledge and farm characteristics for one baseline-analogue pair.Yield potentials among the 50 closest analogue locations varied strongly within all climate scenarios, hinting at factors other than climate as major drivers of what the analogue approach might interpret as climate effects. However, on average future climatic conditions seemed more favourable to maize and coffee cultivation than current conditions. The detailed site comparison revealed substantial differences between farms in important characteristics, such as farm size and presence of cash crops, casting doubt on the usefulness of the comparison for climate change analysis. Climatic constraints were similar between sites, so that no apparent lessons for adaptation could be derived. Pests and diseases were also similar, indicating that climate change may not lead to strong changes in biotic constraints at the baseline site in the near future. From

  4. The economics of optimal adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Ringius, L.

    2002-07-01

    This paper has set out to provide a consistent theoretical framework for understanding how consumers, producers and factor agents respond to the impacts of climate change, with a primary focus on the production and consumption of, and investment in, market goods and services under competitive conditions. However, we have also pointed out that this theory can be extended to economies where individuals and groups pursue other well-defined objectives, and we have provided some examples that show the consistency in adaptation behaviour between economic terms and those who maximise the objective of household nutrition. We have defined adaptation as the changes that economic agents make in the allocation of resources to consumption, production and investment to offset the effects of weather variability or climate change on their welfare. This definition is broad enough to encompass almost every conceivable kind of adaptation behaviour. Further, we have followed the distinction between adaptation that is autonomous and adaptation actions that are undertaken by governments in the form of adaptation strategies. Autonomous adaptation is adaptation that economic agents will undertake to change, without the assistance of government, to improve their welfare due to incentives that are built into the political economy of a country. Adaptation strategies involve conscious decisions by governments to undertake actions and implement projects to avoid (or benefit from) weather variability and climate change. We show how the extent to which economic activities are adapted to existing climate variability will affect how much autonomous adaptation will need to occur once the pure effect of climate change is taken into account. In this paper we argue that the ability of economic activities to adapt once the pure effect of climate change can be accounted for by the following factors: Presence of well-developed markets for inputs and outputs; Ability and competitiveness to produce

  5. Overcoming the barriers. Mainstreaming climate change adaptation in developing countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change is a huge threat to all aspects of human development and achievement of the Millennium Development Goals for poverty reduction. Until recently, donor agencies, national and local layers of government, and non-governmental organisations have paid little attention to the risks and uncertainties associated with climate change. Now, however, players at all levels are increasingly engaging with the question of how to tackle the impacts of climate change on development in poorer nations. There are growing efforts to reduce negative impacts and seize opportunities by integrating climate change adaptation into development planning, programmes and budgeting, a process known as mainstreaming. Such a co-ordinated, integrated approach to adaptation is imperative in order to deal with the scale and urgency of dealing with climate change impacts. In developed countries progress on mainstreaming climate adaptation has been limited. Many countries have carried out climate change projections and impact assessments, but few have started consultation processes to look at adaptation options and identify policy responses. In developing countries, the mainstreaming process is also in its early stages. Small island developing states have made good progress, with Caribbean countries among the first to start work on adaptation. The Pacific islands have received considerable support and through the World Bank a number of initiatives have begun. Crucially, there has been little progress in mainstreaming adaptation within existing poverty alleviation policy frameworks. There is a lack of research on the extent to which climate change, and environmental issues more broadly, have been integrated within PRSPs. This is critical. Examples of efforts from Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Tanzania, Uganda, Sudan, Mexico and Kenya are presented, highlighting a number of key issues relating to current experiences of integrating climate change into poverty reduction efforts. Experiences so far

  6. Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paterson Jaclyn A

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%, severe weather (68% and poor air-quality (57%. Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into

  7. Putting Climate Change Adaptation in the Development Mainstream. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change poses a serious challenge to social and economic development. Developing countries are particularly vulnerable because their economies are generally more dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources, and because they are less able to cope with the impacts of climate change. How development occurs has implications, in turn, for climate change and for the vulnerability of societies to its impacts. Climate change adaptation needs to be brought into the mainstream of economic policies, development projects, and international aid efforts. Considerable analytical work has been done on how development can be made climate-friendly in terms of helping reduce greenhouse gas emissions which cause climate change, although implementation remains a challenge. Much less attention has been paid to how development can be made more resilient to the impacts of climate change. In a narrow engineering sense, this could involve taking climate changes into account in the siting and design of bridges and other infrastructure. At a policy level, it could involve considering the implications of climate change on a variety of development activities including poverty reduction, sectoral development, and natural resource management. Bridging the gap between the climate change adaptation and development communities, however, is not easy. The two communities have different priorities, often operate on different time and space scales, and do not necessarily 'speak the same language'. Specific information is therefore needed on the significance of climate change for development activities along with operational guidance on how best to adapt to its impacts, within the context of other pressing social priorities. This Policy Brief looks at how far current development policies and programmes are taking climate change risks into account, as well as at ways to improve the 'mainstreaming' of adaptation to climate change in development planning and assistance

  8. Impacts and adaptive capacity as drivers for prioritizing agricultural adaptation to climate change in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Schlickenrieder, Jeremy; Quiroga Gomez, Sonia; Diz, Agustin; Iglesias Picazo, Ana

    2011-01-01

    In the face of likely climate change impacts policy makers at different spatial scales need access to assessment tools that enable informed policy instruments to be designed. Recent scientific advances have facilitated the development of improved climate projections, but it remains to be seen whether these are translated into effective adaptation strategies. This paper uses existing databases on climate impacts on European agriculture and combines them with an assessment of adaptive capacity ...

  9. Adaptive forest management for drinking water protection under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koeck, R.; Hochbichler, E.

    2012-04-01

    Drinking water resources drawn from forested catchment areas are prominent for providing water supply on our planet. Despite the fact that source waters stemming from forested watersheds have generally lower water quality problems than those stemming from agriculturally used watersheds, it has to be guaranteed that the forest stands meet high standards regarding their water protection functionality. For fulfilling these, forest management concepts have to be applied, which are adaptive regarding the specific forest site conditions and also regarding climate change scenarios. In the past century forest management in the alpine area of Austria was mainly based on the cultivation of Norway spruce, by the way neglecting specific forest site conditions, what caused in many cases highly vulnerable mono-species forest stands. The GIS based forest hydrotope model (FoHyM) provides a framework for forest management, which defines the most crucial parameters in a spatial explicit form. FoHyM stratifies the spacious drinking water protection catchments into forest hydrotopes, being operational units for forest management. The primary information layer of FoHyM is the potential natural forest community, which reflects the specific forest site conditions regarding geology, soil types, elevation above sea level, exposition and inclination adequately and hence defines the specific forest hydrotopes. For each forest hydrotope, the adequate tree species composition and forest stand structure for drinking water protection functionality was deduced, based on the plant-sociological information base provided by FoHyM. The most important overall purpose for the related elaboration of adaptive forest management concepts and measures was the improvement of forest stand stability, which can be seen as the crucial parameter for drinking water protection. Only stable forest stands can protect the fragile soil and humus layers and hence prevent erosion process which could endanger the water

  10. The climate is going drifting off: how adapt?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report is studying the extreme meteorological events, the signs of the climatic changes, the vulnerability to these events and the strategies of adaptation. It is concluded by nine proposals. (A.L.B.)

  11. Climate change, adaptation and the environment in central Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Ole; Casse, Thorkil

    2013-01-01

    There is an urgent need for integrated approaches, such as the building of environmental management into climate change responses, addressing the total impact of livelihood stresses in social vulnerability perspectives, and ensuring that overall adaptation policies adequately address social justice...

  12. Recent Advances in Climate Impacts, Vulnerability, and Adaptation Studies in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, G.; Cayan, D. R.; Moser, S. C.; Hanemann, M.; Pittiglio, S.

    2010-12-01

    The State of California is committed to preparing periodic climate change impacts and adaptation assessments to inform and develop policy in the State. The most recent assessment was released late in 2009 and a new vulnerability and adaptation assessment is underway for release in late 2011. Both assessments use IPCC climate simulations that were statistically downscaled to a horizontal resolution of about 12 Km. The 2009 California assessment attempted to translate some impacts and adaptation options into monetary terms which introduced additional uncertainties. The 2011 California assessment combines a set of coordinated statewide and regional/local studies because many adaptation options, though informed by state and national policies, will be implemented at regional and local levels. The 2011 assessment expands the number of climate simulations that are employed in order to form a fuller estimate of the potential envelope of climate change and its impacts in the state. It also introduces a subset of dynamically downscaled scenarios to understand how well statistical relationships, developed using historical data, hold up in future climate regimes. Investigations are on-going to translate the ensemble of climate simulations and to begin to attach probabilities to the scenarios using subjective and objective techniques. In addition to advances in climate simulations and downscaling techniques, the new vulnerability and adaptation assessment also increasingly integrates social science approaches to assessing vulnerabilities and adaptation options. This presentation will illustrate results from the 2009 assessment and describe the design and initial implementation of the 2011 assessment.

  13. Indonesian National Policy on Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Yun Santoso

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available From its arousal, the issue of climate change or global warming has become a distinct global trend setter in multidisciplinary discussion, including in the law perspective. Within legal discourse, the issue of climate change developed rapidly into several aspect, not only about adaptation nor mitigation, especially since the plurality of moral conviction relevant to the climate change facts. As a global matter, each country has the responsibility to adapt and mitigate with its own character and policy. This normative research aims to explore and describe in brief the Indonesian national policy in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Gradually, the contribution of Indonesia is getting firm and solid to the climate change regime, especially after the Bali Action Plan 2007.

  14. Living with climate change: avoiding conflict through adaptation in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørstad, H.; Webersik, C.

    2015-11-01

    In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change and avoid conflict over the loss of resources. The empirical part of the paper answers the question to what extent local communities in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. Further, it assesses one of Malawi's adaptation projects designed to build resilience to a warmer and more variable climate, and points to some of its limitations. This research shows that not all adaptation strategies are suited to cope with a warmer and more variable climate.

  15. Economics of adaptation to climate change; Economie de l'adaptation au changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch.; Hallegatte, St.; Lecocq, F.

    2010-02-15

    This report proposes a general economic framework for the issue of adaptation to climate change in order to help public and private actors to build up efficient adaptation strategies. It proposes a general definition of adaptation, identifies the major stakes for these strategies, and discusses the assessment of global costs of adaptation to climate change. It discusses the role and modalities of public action and gives some examples of possible adaptation measures in some important sectors (building and town planning, energy and transport infrastructures, water and agriculture, ecosystems, insurance). It examines the regional and national dimensions of adaptation and their relationship, and defines steps for implementing an adaptation strategy. It describes and discusses the use of economic tools in the elaboration of an adaptation strategy, i.e. how to take uncertainties into account, which scenarios to choose, how to use economic calculations to assess adaptation policies

  16. Adaptation to climate change in urban areas: climate-greening London, Rotterdam, and Toronto

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mees, H.L.P.; Driessen, P.P.J.

    2011-01-01

    This article aims to gain insight into the governance capacity of cities to adapt to climate change through urban green planning, which we will refer to as climate-greening. The use of green space is considered a no-regrets adaptation strategy, since it not only absorbs rainfall and moderates temper

  17. Engaging a moving target: Adapting to rates of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, S.; Caldeira, K.; Moreno-Cruz, J.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is affecting the planet and its human and natural systems at an increasing rate. As temperatures continue to rise, the international community has increasingly been considering adaptation measures to prepare for future climate change. However, most discussion around adaptation strategies has focused on preparedness for some expected amount of climate change impacts, e.g. 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, we discuss adaptation to rates of change as an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about adaptation. Adaptation is not only about adapting to amounts of change, but the rate at which these changes occur is also critically important. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal coastal investment in the face of ongoing sea level rise. Sea level rise threatens coastal assets. Finite resources could be devoted to building infrastructure further inland or to building coastal defense systems. A possible policy response could be to create a "no-build" coastal buffer zone that anticipates a future higher sea level. We present a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among various important factors (rate of sea level rise, discount rate, capital depreciation rate, attractiveness of coastal land, etc). For some cases, strategies that combine periodic defensive investments (e.g. dikes) with planned retreat can maximize welfare when adapting to rates of climate change. In other cases, planned retreat may be optimal. It is important to prepare for ongoing increasing amounts of climate change. Preparing for a fixed amount of climate change can lead to a suboptimal solution. Climate is likely to continue changing throughout this century and beyond. To reduce adverse climate impacts, ecosystems and human systems will need to continuously adapt to a moving target.

  18. How Can Policy Encourage Economically Sensible Climate Adaptation?

    OpenAIRE

    V. Kerry Smith

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the role of incentive based climate adaptation policies. It uses the early literature on pricing and capacity choices under demand uncertainty to describe how revised price structures for the substitutes for climate services can be treated as anticipatory adaptation. In many situations the policies determining the prices of these services make them difficult to adjust. Thus, excess demand will not be managed through price adjustment. This situation is important because it...

  19. Small farms and climate change adaptation in British Columbia

    OpenAIRE

    McNamara, Kaleen

    2011-01-01

    Small-scale farms in British Columbia (BC) face the challenge of adapting to both positive and negative climate change impacts, while maintaining their financial viability. This study explores the issue of climate change adaptation for small-scale farmers in British Columbia using semi-structured interviews and case study analysis. Small farms frequently employ soil preservation techniques, organic methods, and grow a diversity of crops, which make them more resilient to some of the negative ...

  20. Climate Literacy and Adaptation Solutions for Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    Many climate literacy programs and resources are targeted specifically at children and young adults, as part of the concerted effort to improve STEM education in the U.S. This work is extremely important in building a future society that is well prepared to adopt policies promoting climate change resilience. What these climate literacy efforts seldom do, however, is reach the older adult population that is making economic decisions right now (or not, as the case may be) on matters that can be impacted by climate change. The result is a lack of appreciation of "climate intelligence" - information that could be incorporated into the decision-making process, to maximize opportunities, minimize risk, and create a climate-resilient economy. A National Climate Service, akin to the National Weather Service, would help provide legitimacy to the need for climate intelligence, and would certainly also be the first stop for both governments and private sector concerns seeking climate information for operational purposes. However, broader collaboration between the scientific and business communities is also needed, so that they become co-creators of knowledge that is beneficial and informative to all. The stakeholder-driven research that is the focus of NOAA's RISA (Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments) projects is one example of how such collaborations can be developed.

  1. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Stephanie E; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will-or should-include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation-cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning-and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning. PMID:27618074

  2. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

    2016-04-01

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

  3. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shlomit Paz

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different, the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

  4. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

    2016-04-01

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801

  5. Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Holmner

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on ‘green information and communication technology (ICT’ are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies.

  6. Responsibility for private sector adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Schneider

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007 indicates that vulnerable industries should adapt to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events along with slowly shifting mean annual temperatures and precipitation patterns, to prevent major damages or periods of inoperability in the future. Most articles in the literature on business management frame organizational adaptation to climate change as a private action. This makes adaptation the sole responsibility of a company, for its sole benefit, and overlooks the fact that some companies provide critical goods and services such a food, water, electricity, and medical care, that are so vital to society that even a short-term setback in operations could put public security at risk. This raises the following questions: (1 Who is responsible for climate change adaptation by private-sector suppliers of critical infrastructure? (2 How can those who are identified to be responsible, actually be held to assume their responsibility for adapting to climate change? These questions will be addressed through a comprehensive review of the literature on business management, complemented by a review of specialized literature on public management. This review leads to several conclusions. Even though tasks that formerly belonged to the state have been taken over by private companies, the state still holds ultimate responsibility in the event of failure of private-sector owned utilities, insofar as they are “critical infrastructure.” Therefore, it remains the state’s responsibility to foster adaptation to climate change with appropriate action. In theory, effective ways of assuming this responsibility, while enabling critical infrastructure providers the flexibility adapt to climate change, would be to delegate adaptation to an agency, or to conduct negotiations with stakeholders. In view of this theory, Germany will be used as a case study to demonstrate how private-sector critical

  7. Adaptation research meets adaptation decision-making. Second Nordic international conference on climate change adaption. Programme and abstracts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    Nearly two years have passed since a small team of researchers began a new chapter in Nordic co-operation on climate change by organising a conference in Stockholm, Sweden. The conference, entitled Climate Adaptation in the Nordic Countries - Science, Practice, Policy, co-ordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute and hosted by Stockholm University in November 2010, was the first of its kind in the Nordic region. Since the European Commission adopted its White Paper on adaptation to climate change in 2009, many of that document's 33 actions have been implemented, a climate change adaptation platform, Climate-ADAPT, was launched at the European Environment Agency in March this year, and just a week before this conference the Commission concluded a public consultation of stakeholders and experts in member states designed to feed into the preparation of a European Union adaptation strategy. The 2012 conference therefore presents an ideal opportunity to take stock of ongoing efforts and to consider how adaptation research efforts are keeping pace with policy demands as well as the needs of public and private decision-makers operating at a range of scales. It brings together researchers, public and private decision- makers, as well as those who plan and realize adaptation plans. Session themes include, among others: national and local adaptation plans, climate portals and climate services, adaptation in developing countries, legal aspects of adaptation, economic appraisal of adaptation, analysing and handling risk and uncertainty, urban planning and scenarios. The contributors have very diverse backgrounds, ranging from biosciences to social sciences, economics to geo-sciences, and engineering to architecture. Interest in climate change adaptation in the Nordic region is clearly high, with over 70% of our participants drawn from the five Nordic countries, but the conference has also managed to attract participation from further afield, with registrations

  8. Technologies for adaptation to climate change. Examples from the agricultural and water sectors in Lebanon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Stephan, Jean

    2015-01-01

    Increasing attention is being given to climate technologies on the international climate change agenda, not least in the agricultural sector and water sectors, and to technologies for adaptation. However investments in technology-based adaptation (seeds, dams, irrigation, etc.) are complicated...... by the fact that it remains difficult to predict future climate change impacts, especially on a local scale. In addition, evidence for the costs and benefits of implementing adaptation technologies is relatively limited. The analysis presented in this paper shows that there is a large potential...... for integrating adaptation technologies into the planning and implementation of on-going and future projects. Based on local-level data from a technology needs assessment project in Lebanon, this paper presents two examples of the economic feasibility of implementing adaptation technologies in the agricultural...

  9. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

    2014-11-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

  10. Public health adaptation to climate change in OECD countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine ho

  11. Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reilly, J.; Baethgen, W.; Chege, F.E.; Geijn, van de S.C.; Lin Erda,; Iglesias, A.; Kenny, G.; Patterson, D.; Rogasik, J.; Rötter, R.; Rosenzweig, C.; Sombroek, W.; Westbrook, J.; Bachelet, D.; Brklacich, M.; Dämmgen, U.; Howden, M.

    1996-01-01

    This chapter deals with sensitivities, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. It covers: the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate and atmospheric constituents on crop yield, soils, agricultural pests, and livestock; estimates of yield and production change

  12. Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Nkem, J.N.; Locatelli, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay particul

  13. Reconciling approaches to climate change adaptation for Colombian agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Khoury, C.K.

    2013-01-01

    The projected impact of climate change on agro-ecological systems is considered widespread and significant, particularly across the global tropics. As in many other countries, adaptation to climate change is likely to be an important challenge for Colombian agricultural systems. In a recent study, a

  14. Sharing the burden of financing adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellink, R.; Elzen, M.; Aiking, H.; Bergsma, E.; Berkhout, F.; Dekker, T.; Gupta, J.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change may cause most harm to countries that have historically contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. This paper identifies consequentialist and non-consequentialist ethical principles to guide a fair international burden-sharing scheme of climate change adapt

  15. Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Liang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the geography of phenological model prediction (first leaf represents the instantaneous effect of contemporary climate, the normalized land surface phenology potentially reveals vegetation heterogeneity that is related to climatic adaptation. The study was done at the continental scale for the conterminous U.S., with a focus on the eastern humid temperate domain. Our findings suggest that, in an analogous scenario, if a uniform contemporary climate existed everywhere, spring vegetation greenup would occur earlier in the north than in the south. This is in accordance with known species-level clinal variations—for many temperate plant species, populations adapted to colder climates require less thermal forcing to initiate growth than those in warmer climates. This study, for the first time, shows that such geographic adaption relationships are supported at the ecosystem level. Mapping large-scale vegetation climate adaptation patterns contributes to our ability to better track geographically varied phenological responses to climate change.

  16. U.S. NATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. National Assessment of Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change will provide a detailed understanding of the consequences of climate change for the nation and will examine the possible coping mechanisms thatexist to adapt to climate change. This assessme...

  17. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  18. Urban Resilience in Climate Change Adaptation: A Conceptual Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Donghyun Kim; Up Lim

    2016-01-01

    This study presents a conceptual framework for analyzing urban resilience in the context of climate change. The key conceptual elements of resilience are first identified and then reorganized with a focus on cities and climate change adaptation. This study covers not only ecological and engineering resilience but also resilience as a sociopolitical process from an evolutionary perspective. The study’s conceptual framework centers on resilience as it relates to cities and climate change. Its f...

  19. Vulnerability and Adaptation to the Health Impacts of Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Antonio Postigo

    2008-01-01

    Antonio Postigo argues that in contrast to the increasing recognition of the environmental outcomes of climate change, its consequences on human health have received little attention. These health impacts will be largely shaped by socio-economic factors being more severe among vulnerable communities in developing countries. He outlines the need to integrate health vulnerabilities into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Greater consideration of the health effects of climate c...

  20. Climate change and global crop yield: impacts, uncertainties and adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Deryng, Delphine

    2014-01-01

    As global mean temperature continues to rise steadily, agricultural systems are projected to face unprecedented challenges to cope with climate change. However, understanding of climate change impacts on global crop yield, and of farmers’ adaptive capacity, remains incomplete as previous global assessments: (1) inadequately evaluated the role of extreme weather events; (2) focused on a small subset of the full range of climate change predictions; (3) overlooked uncertainties related to the ch...

  1. The climate is going drifting off: how adapt?; Un climat a la derive: comment s'adapter?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    This report is studying the extreme meteorological events, the signs of the climatic changes, the vulnerability to these events and the strategies of adaptation. It is concluded by nine proposals. (A.L.B.)

  2. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation—cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning—and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning. PMID:27618074

  3. The role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, Sander; Stiller, Sabina; Keskitalo, E.C.H.; Scholten, Peter; Smits, Robert; Lamoen, van Frank

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to better understand the role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation. We first present a framework, which distinguishes five functions of leadership within inter-organizational networks: the connective, enabling, adaptive, political–administrative and dissemination fu

  4. On the nature of barriers to climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biesbroek, G.R.; Klostermann, J.E.M.; Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Considerable barriers can emerge in developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies. Understanding the nature of barriers to adaptation is important so as to find strategic ways of dealing with them. However, our current understanding is limited and highly fragmented across the acad

  5. Responsible Climate Change Adaptation : Exploring, analysing and evaluating public and private responsibilities for urban adaptation to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Mees, Heleen

    2014-01-01

    Cities are vulnerable to climate change. To deal with climate change, city governments and private actors such as businesses and citizens need to adapt to its effects, such as sea level rise, storm surges, intense rainfall and heatwaves. However, adaptation planning and action is often hampered when the relevant public and private actors have only vague and ambiguous responsibilities. Some exploration on the issue of public and private responsibilities has been undertaken in the literature, b...

  6. Health Impacts of Climate Change in Vanuatu: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    OpenAIRE

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involv...

  7. Limits to health adaptation in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

  8. Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

  9. Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns. An increase in potential flood damage in the urban context is anticipated due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires a higher performance on flood...... detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimations of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost benefit analysis. The results are aimed to provide important information to decision making on how best to adapt for urban pluvial...... flooding due to climate impacts in cities....

  10. Cultural dimensions of climate change impacts and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Barnett, Jon; Brown, Katrina; Marshall, Nadine; O'Brien, Karen

    2013-02-01

    Society's response to every dimension of global climate change is mediated by culture. We analyse new research across the social sciences to show that climate change threatens cultural dimensions of lives and livelihoods that include the material and lived aspects of culture, identity, community cohesion and sense of place. We find, furthermore, that there are important cultural dimensions to how societies respond and adapt to climate-related risks. We demonstrate how culture mediates changes in the environment and changes in societies, and we elucidate shortcomings in contemporary adaptation policy.

  11. The Adaptation Of Ukraine To Climate Change Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Victoria Shtets

    2013-01-01

    The Author considers and analyzes the status of national adaptation plan preparation in Ukraine, its problems and prospects of implementation. She estimates the status of the environment and possible threats in case of inaction and explains the importance of adaptation measures implementation. Mitigation and adaptation actions in case of climate change, which Ukraine has to provide are necessary for Ukrainian economy to enhance its efficiency, competitiveness, and to reduce energy dependence,...

  12. Australia's dengue risk driven by human adaptation to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel W Beebe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region's urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Having collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegypti's distribution under today's climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is mediated more by human activity than by climate. Synthesis of this data with dengue transmission climate limits in Australia derived from historical dengue epidemics suggested that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks in Australia could result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti which would present a risk of dengue transmission in most major cities during their warm summer months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the debate of the role climate change will play in the future range of dengue in Australia, we conclude that the increased risk of an Ae. aegypti range expansion in Australia would be due not directly to climate change but rather to human adaptation to the current and forecasted regional drying

  13. Technologies for climate change adaptation. The water sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez, T. De (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Elliott, M.; Armstrong, A.; Lobuglio, J.; Bartram, J. (The Water Institute at the Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC (United States))

    2011-04-15

    This guidebook aims to provide expert information on the technologies most relevant for climate change adaptation in the water sector in developing countries. It is meant to be a practical tool for use by a broad range of stakeholders, including those in governmental agencies, water utilities, community water boards, non-governmental organizations, and private sector companies. Adaptation is an essential element of human response to climate change. The adverse impacts of climate change on the water sector will be experienced worldwide and are often projected to be most severe in resource-poor countries. Therefore, it is necessary to have access to a diverse array of adaptation technologies and practices that are appropriate and affordable in various contexts. The scale of these adaptation technologies/practices should range from the individual household level (e.g. household water treatment), to the community scale (e.g. rainwater collection in small reservoirs), to large facilities that can benefit a city or region (e.g. a desalination plant). The guidebook first reviews the projected impacts of climate change on the water sector. It then addresses the role of adaptation in the water sector and six typologies under which available strategies are categorized. Eleven technologies and practices are given detailed treatment in this guidebook and four others are covered briefly. While these do not constitute all of the adaptation technologies available in the water sector, they do represent many of the most important adaptation technologies for developing countries. For each of the 11 adaptation technologies and practices, the following are addressed: basic description, contribution to climate change and development, institutional and capacity building requirements, costs, barriers and opportunities for implementation, and extensive reference to external resources and case studies. The practical steps and appropriate contexts for implementation are covered in the

  14. Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Jill A; Miller, Joshua M

    2016-02-01

    Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species' and populations' ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species' ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced-generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate.

  15. Adapting Scotland’s forests to climate change using an action expiration chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petr, M.; Boerboom, L. G. J.; Ray, D.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-10-01

    The inherent uncertainty of climate change impacts is one of the main challenges for adaptation in environmental management. The lack of knowledge about climate impacts on ecosystem services at high spatial and temporal resolution limits when and what adaptation measures should be taken. We addressed these limits by assessing four ecosystem services—forest production, tree growth, sequestered carbon, and tourism potential—under drought or climate change. To support adaptation, we adapted the existing concept of ‘dynamic adaptive policy pathways’ for forest management by developing an action expiration chart, which helps to define expiry dates for forestry actions using ecosystem services delivery thresholds. We assessed services for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak on the National Forest Estate in Scotland for the next 80 years using probabilistic climate change data from the UKCP09 weather generator. Findings showed that drought would have an overall long-term negative impact on the provision of three services with a decrease up to 41%, whereas climate change has a positive impact on tourism potential with up to five times higher frequency of good climate conditions during summer months. Furthermore, the results highlighted when forestry actions, mainly in the lowlands, will reach their environmental limits during the next 80 years. Our findings reduce knowledge uncertainty and highlight when and where adaptation should be implemented to ensure the provision of future forest ecosystem services in Scotland.

  16. Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Economics

    OpenAIRE

    Kahn, Matthew E.

    2014-01-01

    In an urbanizing world economy featuring thousands of cities, households and firms have strong incentives to make locational investments and self protection choices to reduce their exposure to new climate change induced risks. This pursuit of self interest reduces the costs imposed by climate change. This paper develops a dynamic compensating differentials model to explore how the “menu” offered by a system of cities insures us against emerging risks. Insights from urban economics offer a ser...

  17. Costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom [Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (United Kingdom); Dysznski, Jillian [Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden); Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtenay Cabot

    2011-11-15

    Climate change poses a major challenge to agriculture. Rising temperatures will change crop growing seasons. And changing rainfall patterns will affect yield potentials. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has left the agricultural sector in many developing countries ill-prepared for the changes ahead. Policymakers and researchers alike acknowledge the need for adaptation within agriculture. But what action should be taken? And, more importantly, how much will it cost? Five case studies — of specific agricultural systems in Bangladesh, Malawi, Nepal, Rwanda and Tanzania — provide fresh insights into the options available and likely costs, which are at least US$20,000 for an integrated cropping system in a village, and may well be more than US$100 million for a whole sector such as livestock in a country.

  18. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future risks based on projections of climate change and city development. Furthermore, this framework can be utilized to identify cost-effective measures that can reduce the overall flood risk to an acceptable level considering both costs and benefits of adaptation. The framework is mainly based on a utilitarian approach that studies urban drainage adaptation solutions from a socio-economic point of view. The methodologies involve the state-of-the-art flood inundation modelling, risk assessment tools, socio-economic analysis tools, city planning, and uncertainty analysis. The thesis has explored several limitations of the current design practice of urban drainage. To further supplement and develop the common practice, a systemic and integrated framework is proposed by incorporating three research areas: (i) risk-based economic approaches for assessment of climate adaptation design, (ii) uncertainty analysis of climate adaptation assessment and (iii) reframing the assessment approaches by incorporating additional benefits and costs of adaptation alternatives. To strategically provide a functional performance of urban drainage systems, a risk-based economic approach is developed to take into account the impacts of all probable floods in terms of their probabilities and consequences (e.g. extents of floods, costing of damage). It is found that this approach contributes to a better understanding of the contributions of different return periods/flood events to the overall risk under both current and future climatic conditions and therefore can be used as guidance for further

  19. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

    2013-01-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

  20. Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

    2015-12-01

    Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

  1. Development of Climate Change Adaptation Platform using Spatial Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J.; Oh, K. Y.; Lee, M. J.; Han, W. J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change adaptation has attracted growing attention with the recent extreme weather conditions that affect people around the world. More and more countries, including the Republic of Korea, have begun to hatch adaptation plan to resolve these matters of great concern. They all, meanwhile, have mentioned that it should come first to integrate climate information in all analysed areas. That's because climate information is not independently made through one source; that is to say, the climate information is connected one another in a complicated way. That is the reason why we have to promote integrated climate change adaptation platform before setting up climate change adaptation plan. Therefore, the large-scaled project has been actively launched and worked on. To date, we researched 620 literatures and interviewed 51 government organizations. Based on the results of the researches and interviews, we obtained 2,725 impacts about vulnerability assessment information such as Monitoring and Forecasting, Health, Disaster, Agriculture, Forest, Water Management, Ecosystem, Ocean/Fisheries, Industry/Energy. Among 2,725 impacts, 995 impacts are made into a database until now. This database is made up 3 sub categories like Climate-Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, presented by IPCC. Based on the constructed database, vulnerability assessments were carried out in order to evaluate climate change capacity of local governments all over the country. These assessments were conducted by using web-based vulnerability assessment tool which was newly developed through this project. These results have shown that, metropolitan areas like Seoul, Pusan, Inchon, and so on have high risks more than twice than rural areas. Acknowledgements: The authors appreciate the support that this study has received from "Development of integrated model for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment and strengthening the framework for model implementation ", an initiative of the

  2. Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Planning in African Cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud; Herslund, Lise Byskov; Lund, Dorthe Hedensted;

    2014-01-01

    beginning to be aware of the task, and some time will pass before it is integrated into mainstream urban governance. This chapter is based on work in progress. It covers urban governance and planning aspects of climate change adaptation as studied in the CLUVA project (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability......Resilience of urban structures towards impacts of a changing climate is one of the emerging tasks that cities all over the world are facing at present. Effects of climate change take many forms, depending on local climate, spatial patterns, and socioeconomic structures. Cities are only just...... in Africa), as well as some experiences from Denmark. Focus is on the responses and capacities of urban authorities, strengths and weaknesses of the efforts, data needs and possible ways forward. The chapter concludes that many adaptation activities are taking place in the CLUVA case cities...

  3. Climate Information and Agricultural Practice in Adaptation to Climate Variability: The Case of Climate Field Schools in Indramayu, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.; Siregar, P.R.

    2011-01-01

    Inspired by the Farmer Field School methodology, a “Climate Field School” was conducted with farmers in the Indramayu region of Indonesia in 2003 to promote adaptive application of climate forecasts to crop selection decisions. However, five years after the Climate Field School, use of the forecasts

  4. Adaptive Management of Water Resources in Light of Future Climate Uncertainty

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gerald Sehlke; Mark Colosimo

    2007-11-01

    Water resources managers have always had to make operational decisions in spite of a relatively high degree of uncertainty caused by changing climate, hydrologic, population, land use, socioeconomic, and other conditions. However, based on current climate change predictions and observations of current impacts of climate change or natural variability, the degree of uncertainty appears to be increasing drastically. By better understanding these uncertainties and their policy implications and by managing those uncertainties adaptively, water resources managers and policy makers can reduce the risk of not meeting their management goals and reduce the potential physical, biological and socioeconomic impacts associated with climate change/variation.

  5. 76 FR 12945 - Instructions for Implementing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Accordance With Executive...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-09

    ... QUALITY Instructions for Implementing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Accordance With Executive... (CEQ) is issuing instructions to Federal agencies for integrating climate change adaptation into agency... instructions to implement the Executive Order. The Instructions for Implementing Climate Change...

  6. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  7. Community-based adaptation: lessons from the development marketplace 2009 on adaptation to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Heltberg, Rasmus; Gitay, Habiba; Prabhu, Radhika

    2010-01-01

    The Development Marketplace 2009 focused on adaptation to climate change. This paper identifies lessons from the Marketplace and assesses their implications for adaptation support. Our findings are based on: statistical tabulation of all proposals; in-depth qualitative and quantitative analysis of the 346 semi-finalists; and interviews with finalists and assessors. Proposals were fuelled by deep concerns that ongoing climate change and its impacts undermine development and exacerbate poverty,...

  8. Conceptualizing urban adaptation to climate change: Findings from an applied adaptation assessment framework

    OpenAIRE

    Johnson, Katie; BREIL, MARGARETHA

    2012-01-01

    Urban areas have particular sensitivities to climate change, and therefore adaptation to a warming planet represents a challenging new issue for urban policy makers in both the developed and developing world. Further to climate mitigation strategies implemented in various cities over the past 20 years, more recent efforts of urban management have also included actions taken to adapt to increasing temperatures, sea level and extreme events. Through the examination and comparison of seven citie...

  9. Simulating adaptive wood harvest in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Nabel, Julia; Pongratz, Julia

    2016-04-01

    The world's forest experience substantial carbon exchange fluxes between land and atmosphere. Large carbon sinks occur in response to changes in environmental conditions (such as climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations), removing about one quarter of current anthropogenic CO2-emissions. Large sinks also occur due to regrowth of forest on areas of agricultural abandonment or forest management. Forest management, on the other hand, also leads to substantial amounts of carbon being eventually released to the atmosphere. Both sinks and sources attributable to forests are therefore dependent on the intensity of management. Forest management in turn depends on the availability of resources, which is influenced by environmental conditions and sustainability of management systems applied. Estimating future carbon fluxes therefore requires accounting for the interaction of environmental conditions, forest growth, and management. However, this interaction is not fully captured by current modeling approaches: Earth system models depict in detail interactions between climate, the carbon cycle, and vegetation growth, but use prescribed information on management. Resource needs and land management, however, are simulated by Integrated Assessment Models that typically only have coarse representations of the influence of environmental changes on vegetation growth and are typically based on the demand for wood driven by regional population growth and energy needs. Here we present a study that provides the link between environmental conditions, forest growth and management. We extend the land component JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model (MPI-ESM) to simulate potential wood harvest in response to altered growth conditions and thus as adaptive to changing climate and CO2 conditions. We apply the altered model to estimate potential wood harvest for future climates (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) for the management scenario of

  10. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  11. Climate change and agriculture: Mitigation and Adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neeteson, J.J.; Verhagen, A.

    2010-01-01

    Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere resulting in rising global temperatures and sea levels. Agriculture contributes significantly to climate change through the emission of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Continuation of th

  12. The VIADUC project: innovation in climate adaptation through service design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corre, L.; Dandin, P.; L'Hôte, D.; Besson, F.

    2015-07-01

    From the French National Adaptation to Climate Change Plan, the "Drias, les futurs du climat" service has been developed to provide easy access to French regional climate projections. This is a major step for the implementation of French Climate Services. The usefulness of this service for the end-users and decision makers involved with adaptation planning at a local scale is investigated. As such, the VIADUC project is: to evaluate and enhance Drias, as well as to imagine future development in support of adaptation. Climate scientists work together with end-users and a service designer. The designer's role is to propose an innovative approach based on the interaction between scientists and citizens. The chosen end-users are three Natural Regional Parks located in the South West of France. The latter parks are administrative entities which gather municipalities having a common natural and cultural heritage. They are also rural areas in which specific economic activities take place, and therefore are concerned and involved in both protecting their environment and setting-up sustainable economic development. The first year of the project has been dedicated to investigation including the questioning of relevant representatives. Three key local economic sectors have been selected: i.e. forestry, pastoral farming and building activities. Working groups were composed of technicians, administrative and maintenance staff, policy makers and climate researchers. The sectors' needs for climate information have been assessed. The lessons learned led to actions which are presented hereinafter.

  13. Implementation arrangements for climate adaptation in the Netherlands: characteristics and underlying mechanisms of adaptive governance.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Buuren, Arwin; Keessen, A.M.; Van Leeuwen, Corniel; Eshuis, Jasper; Ellen, Gerald Jan

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is a rapidly emerging policy domain. Over the last decade we have witnessed many attempts to enhance the climate robustness of agriculture, urban development, water systems, and nature to an increase in flood and drought risks due to a higher variability in rainfall patt

  14. Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village, Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkomwa, Emmanuel Charles; Joshua, Miriam Kalanda; Ngongondo, Cosmo; Monjerezi, Maurice; Chipungu, Felistus

    In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people's perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climate change, IKS varies over a short spatial scale, providing locally relevant adaptation to impacts of climate change. This paper therefore advocates for the integration of IKS in programmes addressing adaptation to climate change and vulnerability. This will serve to ensure sustainable and relevant adaptation strategies.

  15. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future risks based on projections of climate change and city development. Furthermore, this framework can be utilized to identify cost-effective measures that can reduce the overall flood risk to an acceptable level considering both costs and benefits of adaptation. The framework is mainly based on a utilitarian approach that studies urban drainage adaptation solutions from a socio-economic point of view. The methodologies involve the state-of-the-art flood inundation modelling, risk assessment tools, socio-economic analysis tools, city planning, and uncertainty analysis. The thesis has explored several limitations of the current design practice of urban drainage. To further supplement and develop the common practice, a systemic and integrated framework is proposed by incorporating three research areas: (i) risk-based economic approaches for assessment of climate adaptation design, (ii) uncertainty analysis of climate adaptation assessment and (iii) reframing the assessment approaches by incorporating additional benefits and costs of adaptation alternatives. To strategically provide a functional performance of urban drainage systems, a risk-based economic approach is developed to take into account the impacts of all probable floods in terms of their probabilities and consequences (e.g. extents of floods, costing of damage). It is found that this approach contributes to a better understanding of the contributions of different return periods/flood events to the overall risk under both current and future climatic conditions and therefore can be used as guidance for further

  16. Two key concepts of the society-climate change interface: vulnerability and adaptation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vulnerability and adaptation are two inseparable concepts, each being dependent on the other. Although they are extremely sensitive to the contextual specificities of particular areas, vulnerability reduction and adaptation strategies can only be developed at the interface between different spatial and temporal scales. This leads us to assert that faced with a common threat - climate change -, different types of vulnerability and adaptation exist. The aim of this text is to provide an overview of two concepts that can no longer be ignored in discussions on climate change: vulnerability and adaptation. These are two pillars for analysing both the potential impact of climate change on societies and regions, and also their ability to live with these consequences. We will begin by describing how the interdependence of these two concepts explains the position(s) of present and future societies in the face of climate change impacts. We will then show that they share certain determinants that may themselves provide an appropriate framework for analysis. Finally, we will insist on the fact that these two concepts nevertheless remain extremely difficult to grasp, as they require a multi-scalar and multi-temporal approach to regions, which also explains why they are a relevant response to the challenges posed by climate change. The conclusion will call for wider discussion, reiterating that since their nature is fundamentally linked to the diversity and specificities of regions and societies, we must accept the idea that faced with the same threat - climate change - there are different types of vulnerability and adaptation. (author)

  17. Modelling and (adaptive) control of greenhouse climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Udink ten Cate, A.J.

    1983-01-01

    The material presented in this thesis can be grouped around four themes, system concepts, modeling, control and adaptive control. In this summary these themes will be treated separately.System conceptsIn Chapters 1 and 2 an overview of the problem formulation is presented. It is suggested that there

  18. Cost benefit analysis for climate change adaption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.; Weikard, H.P.; Wesseler, J.H.H.; Groeneveld, R.A.; Ansink, E.J.H.; Bruin, de K.; Rietveld, P.; Bockarjova, M.; Hofkes, M.; Brouwer, R.; Dekker, T.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this programme was on the development of decision making tools based on cost benefit analysis under uncertainty, for analysing adaptation and mitigation options related to spatial planning in the Netherlands. The full programme focused on the methodological issues for cost benefit analy

  19. Global assessment of technological innovation for climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adenle, Ademola A; Azadi, Hossein; Arbiol, Joseph

    2015-09-15

    Concerns about mitigating and adapting to climate change resulted in renewing the incentive for agricultural research investments and developing further innovation priorities around the world particularly in developing countries. In the near future, development of new agricultural measures and proper diffusion of technologies will greatly influence the ability of farmers in adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Using bibliometric approaches through output of academic journal publications and patent-based data, we assess the impact of research and development (R&D) for new and existing technologies within the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We show that many developing countries invest limited resources for R&D in relevant technologies that have great potential for mitigation and adaption in agricultural production. We also discuss constraints including weak infrastructure, limited research capacity, lack of credit facilities and technology transfer that may hinder the application of innovation in tackling the challenges of climate change. A range of policy measures is also suggested to overcome identified constraints and to ensure that potentials of innovation for climate change mitigation and adaptation are realized.

  20. National plan for adaptation to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This report first explains the rationale for such a plan, and discusses the costs associated to climate change impacts. It presents two scenarios for climate change in France during the 21. century, highlights the weight of uncertainty for the results of these scenarios, and indicates some current consequences. Then, it presents the Plan content and gives an overview of the Plan governance and evaluation. It proposes a set of action sheets which contain the main adopted measures and briefly describe some implemented or projected actions. These sheets concern the different fields of application of the plan: cross-cutting actions, health, water resources, biodiversity, natural hazards, agriculture, forest, fishery and aquaculture, energy and industry, transport infrastructures and systems, urban planning and built environment, tourism, information, education and training, research, finance and insurance, coasts, mountains, European and international actions, governance

  1. Essays on agricultural adaptation to climate change and ethanol market integration in the U.S

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aisabokhae, Ruth Ada

    Climate factors like precipitation and temperature, being closely intertwined with agriculture, make a changing climate a big concern for the entire human race and its basic survival. Adaptation to climate is a long-running characteristic of agriculture evidenced by the varying types and forms of agricultural enterprises associated with differing climatic conditions. Nevertheless climate change poses a substantial, additional adaptation challenge for agriculture. Mitigation encompasses efforts to reduce the current and future extent of climate change. Biofuels production, for instance, expands agriculture's role in climate change mitigation. This dissertation encompasses adaptation and mitigation strategies as a response to climate change in the U.S. by examining comprehensively scientific findings on agricultural adaptation to climate change; developing information on the costs and benefits of select adaptations to examine what adaptations are most desirable, for which society can further devote its resources; and studying how ethanol prices are interrelated across, and transmitted within the U.S., and the markets that play an important role in these dynamics. Quantitative analysis using the Forestry and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM) shows adaptation to be highly beneficial to agriculture. On-farm varietal and other adaptations contributions outweigh a mix shift northwards significantly, implying progressive technical change and significant returns to adaptation research and investment focused on farm management and varietal adaptations could be quite beneficial over time. Northward shift of corn-acre weighted centroids observed indicates that substantial production potential may shift across regions with the possibility of less production in the South, and more in the North, and thereby, potential redistribution of income. Time series techniques employed to study ethanol price dynamics show that the markets studied are co-integrated and strongly

  2. Lightweight dividing walls : adaptation to temperate climates

    OpenAIRE

    Mendonça, Paulo, ed. lit.; Macieira, Mónica

    2011-01-01

    This paper intends to prove that it is possible to use lightweight membranes on interior partition walls and on external façades, even in housing buildings at temperate climate regions, if their properties are well explored. The few material used, even less than conventional lightweight solutions - the most common is plasterboard with light steel frame structure - allow a lower specific embodied energy and other more favourable environmental impact indicators. Compared to conventional heavywe...

  3. Community-based adaptation to climate change: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayers, Jessica; Huq, Saleemul

    2009-06-15

    Over a billion people - the world's poorest and most bulnerable communities – will bear the brunt of climate change. For them, building local capacity to cope is a vital step towards resilience. Community-based adaptation (CBA) is emerging as a key response to this challenge. Tailored to local cultures and conditions, CBA supports and builds on autonomous adaptations to climate variability, such as the traditional baira or floating gardens of Bangladesh, which help small farmers' crops survive climate-driven floods. Above all, CBA is participatory – a process involving both local stakeholders, and development and disaster risk reduction practitioners. As such, it builds on existing cultural norms while addressing local development issues that contribute to climate vulnerability. CBA is now gaining ground in many regions, and is ripe for the reassessment offered here.

  4. Adaptations to climate-mediated selective pressures in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela M Hancock

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Humans inhabit a remarkably diverse range of environments, and adaptation through natural selection has likely played a central role in the capacity to survive and thrive in extreme climates. Unlike numerous studies that used only population genetic data to search for evidence of selection, here we scan the human genome for selection signals by identifying the SNPs with the strongest correlations between allele frequencies and climate across 61 worldwide populations. We find a striking enrichment of genic and nonsynonymous SNPs relative to non-genic SNPs among those that are strongly correlated with these climate variables. Among the most extreme signals, several overlap with those from GWAS, including SNPs associated with pigmentation and autoimmune diseases. Further, we find an enrichment of strong signals in gene sets related to UV radiation, infection and immunity, and cancer. Our results imply that adaptations to climate shaped the spatial distribution of variation in humans.

  5. Climate Change: Seed Production and Options for Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John G. Hampton

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Food security depends on seed security and the international seed industry must be able to continue to deliver the quantities of quality seed required for this purpose. Abiotic stress resulting from climate change, particularly elevated temperature and water stress, will reduce seed yield and quality. Options for the seed industry to adapt to climate change include moving sites for seed production, changing sowing date, and the development of cultivars with traits which allow them to adapt to climate change conditions. However, the ability of seed growers to make these changes is directly linked to the seed system. In the formal seed system operating in developed countries, implementation will be reasonably straight forward. In the informal system operating in developing countries, the current seed production challenges including supply failing to meet demand and poor seed quality will increase with changing climates.

  6. Climate change adaptation of the built environment – an examination

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Majgaard Krarup, Jonna

    2014-01-01

    phenomena. This is why the term 'environmental changes' might be more accurate than climate change. ‘Environmental changes’ suggests that climate changes ought to be understood as extensive environmental changes, with an impact on the built environment. Following this, it is no longer sufficient only...... to assess for example a building, and anthropogenic impacts on the environment, also the impact of the environment on installations, and on the human activities must be included in the analysis and assessments. Based on observations and investigations into climate change adaptation in DK and abroad...... the research project, Waterscape (Vandskab), focus on some of the challenges that the architectural disciplines are facing in relation to climate changes adaptation....

  7. Adaptation decision-making in the Nordic Countries: assessing the potential for joint action

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juhola, Sirkku; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Davis, Marion;

    2014-01-01

    and in precipitation, although regional variations can be significant. The countries’ robust institutions and economies give them a strong capacity to adapt to these changes. Still, the need for adaptation to the changing climate has been and still is substantial, and in most of the region, there has been progress...... on the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits...... and weaknesses of a Nordic strategy for adaptation? In order to answer these two questions, this paper examines reviews the current national adaptation policies of each Nordic country and discusses the challenges facing a Nordic strategy and finally assesses the potential for common Nordic adaptation policy...

  8. Measuring and tracking the flow of climate change adaptation aid to the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Simon D.; Kandlikar, Milind; Webber, Sophie

    2016-05-01

    The developed world has pledged to mobilize at least US 100 billion per year of ‘new’ and ‘additional’ funds by 2020 to help the developing world respond to climate change. Tracking this finance is particularly problematic for climate change adaptation, as there is no clear definition of what separates adaptation aid from standard development aid. Here we use a historical database of overseas development assistance projects to test the effect of different accounting assumptions on the delivery of adaptation finance to the developing countries of Oceania, using machine algorithms developed from a manual pilot study. The results show that explicit adaptation finance grew to 3%-4% of all development aid to Oceania by the 2008-2012 period, but that total adaptation finance could be as high as 37% of all aid, depending on potentially politically motivated assumptions about what counts as adaptation. There was also an uneven distribution of adaptation aid between countries facing similar challenges like Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia. The analysis indicates that data allowing individual projects to be weighted by their climate change relevance is needed. A robust and mandatory metadata system for all aid projects would allow multilateral aid agencies and independent third parties to perform their own analyses using different assumptions and definitions, and serve as a key check on international climate aid promises.

  9. Climate Change, Migration, and Adaptation in the MENA Region

    OpenAIRE

    Wodon, Quentin; Burger, Nicholas; Grant, Audra; Liverani, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is a major source of concern in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, and migration is often understood as one of several strategies used by households to respond to changes in climate and environmental conditions, including extreme weather events. Other coping and adaptation strategies include changing the household’s sources of livelihood, and selling assets or taking other emergency measures in cases of losses due to extreme weather events. Yet while there is a bur...

  10. Adaptive thermoregulation in endotherms may alter responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Justin G; Seebacher, Frank; Smit, Ben; McKechnie, Andrew E

    2011-11-01

    Climate change is one of the major issues facing natural populations and thus a focus of recent research has been to predict the responses of organisms to these changes. Models are becoming more complex and now commonly include physiological traits of the organisms of interest. However, endothermic species have received less attention than have ectotherms in these mechanistic models. Further, it is not clear whether responses of endotherms to climate change are modified by variation in thermoregulatory characteristics associated with phenotypic plasticity and/or adaptation to past selective pressures. Here, we review the empirical data on thermal adaptation and acclimatization in endotherms and discuss how those factors may be important in models of responses to climate change. We begin with a discussion of why thermoregulation and thermal sensitivity at high body temperatures should be co-adapted. Importantly, we show that there is, in fact, considerable variation in the ability of endotherms to tolerate high body temperatures and/or high environmental temperatures, but a better understanding of this variation will likely be critical for predicting responses to future climatic scenarios. Next, we discuss why variation in thermoregulatory characteristics should be considered when modeling the effects of climate change on heterothermic endotherms. Finally, we review some biophysical and biochemical factors that will limit adaptation and acclimation in endotherms. We consider both long-term, directional climate change and short-term (but increasingly common) anomalies in climate such as extreme heat waves and we suggest areas of important future research relating to both our basic understanding of endothermic thermoregulation and the responses of endotherms to climate change.

  11. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Nathan P. Kettle; Kirstin Dow; Seth Tuler; Thomas Webler; Jessica Whitehead; Karly M. Miller

    2014-01-01

    Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of r...

  12. Adaptation to climate change in urban areas: climate-greening London, Rotterdam, and Toronto

    OpenAIRE

    Mees, H.L.P.; Driessen, P.P.J.

    2011-01-01

    This article aims to gain insight into the governance capacity of cities to adapt to climate change through urban green planning, which we will refer to as climate-greening. The use of green space is considered a no-regrets adaptation strategy, since it not only absorbs rainfall and moderates temperature, but simultaneously can contribute to the sustainable development of urban areas. However, green space competes with other socio-economic interests that also require space. Urban planning can...

  13. EU-wide economic valuation of adaptation to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeuken, Ad; Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas;

    2016-01-01

    Within the BASE project the economic effects of adaptation to climate change are systematically evaluated both from a bottom up and top down perspective. This is done by integrating sectoral models and economic models at EU and global scale with information from selected case studies across sectors...... and benefits are explored for present and future climates, for different socio-economic developments paths and different adaptation strategies. For all models the SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 2 (‘middle of the road’), 3 (‘fragmented world’) and 5 (‘market driven development’) have been explored as well...

  14. The New England Climate Adaptation Project: Enhancing Local Readiness to Adapt to Climate Change through Role-Play Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumore, D.; Kirshen, P. H.; Susskind, L.

    2014-12-01

    Despite scientific consensus that the climate is changing, local efforts to prepare for and manage climate change risks remain limited. How we can raise concern about climate change risks and enhance local readiness to adapt to climate change's effects? In this presentation, we will share the lessons learned from the New England Climate Adaptation Project (NECAP), a participatory action research project that tested science-based role-play simulations as a tool for educating the public about climate change risks and simulating collective risk management efforts. NECAP was a 2-year effort involving the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Consensus Building Institute, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System, and four coastal New England municipalities. During 2012-2013, the NECAP team produced downscaled climate change projections, a summary risk assessment, and a stakeholder assessment for each partner community. Working with local partners, we used these assessments to create a tailored, science-based role-play simulation for each site. Through a series of workshops in 2013, NECAP engaged between 115-170 diverse stakeholders and members of the public in each partner municipality in playing the simulation and a follow up conversation about local climate change risks and possible adaptation strategies. Data were collected through before-and-after surveys administered to all workshop participants, follow-up interviews with 25 percent of workshop participants, public opinion polls conducted before and after our intervention, and meetings with public officials. This presentation will report our research findings and explain how science-based role-play simulations can be used to help communicate local climate change risks and enhance local readiness to adapt.

  15. Accessing International Funding for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lars; Ray, Aaron D.; Smith, Joel B.;

    The primary aim of this guidebook is to provide countries participating in the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) Project with practical guidance that will help them secure financing for adaptation technology transfer project profiles identified in their Technology Action Plans (TAPs). The TNA...... project is being implemented by United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) on behalf of the Global Environment Facility (GEF). This guidebook provides a number of concrete tools and recommendations that will help TNA countries identify and access funding to implement their TAPs, such as: • An overview...... of international public funding sources dedicated to adaptation investments (Chapter 3) • Seven fundamental eligibility criteria for accessing international public funding and guidance on how to apply these concepts to project ideas (Chapter 3) • A template (built on the abovementioned seven fundamental...

  16. Climate change adaptation in Africa : annual report 2006-2007

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Climate Change Adaptation Program was developed by Canada's International Development Research Centre and the United Kingdom's Department for International Development in order to address the needs of African communities vulnerable to climate change. The objectives of the program are to strengthen the capacity of African scientists, organization and communities to contribute to adaptation to climate change, as well as to generate a better understanding of climate change adaptation, and to support adaptation strategies and their adoption by rural and urban Africans. This annual report provided details of the first year of the program's implementation, in which an advisory board was established in order to balance donor representation and African expertise in adaptation. The first year of the program also saw the recruitment of a 13 person staff and the development of proposals for the first allocation of funding. A financial summary was provided. The report provided details of outreach and communications activities used to introduce the program to African and international audiences. 3 tabs., 44 figs

  17. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

  18. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37 % of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90 %) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

  19. An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Kovats, R Sari; Menne, Bettina

    2006-12-01

    Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; d) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy.

  20. The Climate Justice Discourse in Brazil: Potential and Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Milanez; Igor F. Fonseca

    2012-01-01

    Milanez and Fonseca (2011) argue that the climate justice discourse has not been adopted by the media, society or the communities affected by extreme climate events in Brazil. The climate justice discourse has been adapted from the concept of environmental justice and created from the idea that the impacts of climate change affect different social groups in various ways and intensities. (?)

  1. Towards adaptive spatial planning for climate change: Balancing between robustness and flexibility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buuren, A. van; Driessen, P.P.J.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W. van; Rietveld, P.; Salet, W.; Spit, T.J.M.; Teisman, G.

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change necessitates serious adjustments to the spatial organization of our environment. However, the uncertainties, the controversial character of the climate debate, the variety of climate change consequences and the inherently complex character of climate change puts specific

  2. Towards adaptive spatial planning for climate change: balancing between robustness and flexibility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. van Buuren; P.P.J. Driessen; M. van Rijswick; P. Rietveld; W. Salet; T. Spit; G. Teisman

    2013-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change necessitates serious adjustments to the spatial organization of our environment. However, the uncertainties, the controversial character of the climate debate, the variety of climate change consequences and the inherently complex character of climate change puts specific

  3. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rurinda, J.

    2014-01-01

        Keywords: Climate change; Increased climate variability; Vulnerability; Smallholder farmers; Adaptation   Climate change and increased climate variability are currently seen as the major constraints to the already stressed smallholder farming livelihood syst

  4. BRAZIL’S CLIMATE ADAPTATION POLICIES: IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE

    OpenAIRE

    Valdes, Constanza; Arriola, Christine; Somwaru, Agapi; Gasques, Jose Garcia

    2010-01-01

    Current climate adaptation polices in Brazil are influencing not only the choice of crops but also many agricultural practices at the farm level including changes in planting and sowing periods, use of irrigation-saving technologies, and increased nitrogen fertilization, among others. The shape and content of these adaptation policies and measures for Brazil are not limited to production agriculture, but include also conservation reserve and risk-reducing farm programs. In addition, the decad...

  5. Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

    2011-12-01

    Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of

  6. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  7. Building climate resilience into perennial agroecosystems for adaptation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adapting to future climate changes will require resilient agricultural systems. Resiliency can be thought of as the ability of an ecosystem to bounce back and persist after a disturbance or shock. Stressors or perturbations may be more severe in the future because of human-induced climate change. On...

  8. A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Papathoma-Köhle

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2014, suggests that an important increase in frequency and magnitude of hazardous processes related to climate change is to be expected at the global scale. Consequently, it is necessary to improve the level of preparedness and the level of public awareness, to fill institutional gaps, and to improve territorial planning in order to reduce the potentially disastrous impact of natural hazards related to climate change. This paper mainly presents a new framework for risk assessment and mapping which enables countries with limited data sources to assess their risk to climate change related hazards at the local level, in order to reduce potential costs, to develop risk reduction strategies, to harmonize their preparedness efforts with neighboring countries and to deal with trans-boundary risk. The methodology is based on the European Commission’s “Risk Assessment and Mapping Guidelines for Disaster Management” (2010 and considers local restrictions, such as a lack of documentation of historic disastrous events, spatial and other relevant data, offering alternative options for risk assessment, and the production of risk maps. The methodology is based on event tree analysis. It was developed within the European project SEERISK and adapted for a number of climate change-related hazards including floods, heat waves, wildfires, and storms. Additionally, the framework offers the possibility for risk assessment under different future scenarios. The implications for climate change adaptation policy are discussed.

  9. Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Molly S; McCarthy, Patrick D; Garfin, Gregg; Gori, David; Enquist, Carolyn AF

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants’ self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. Acelerando la Adaptación del Manejo de Recursos Naturales para

  10. Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

    2015-12-01

    Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

  11. Adaptation to climate change in France; L'adaptation au changement climatique en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-03-15

    This report first comments some data and facts illustrating climate change. It discusses its various impacts (extreme meteorological events, dramatic impacts on ecosystems with the possible disappearance of some vegetal and animal species, crisis regarding food resources, health risks, population migrations notably because of sea level rise), and briefly evokes these impacts in France. It outlines the need for adaptation and describes the different adaptation principles: reduction of vulnerability, and anticipation of changes and of their impacts. It comments how adaptation and mitigation are two complementary approaches. It presents the French State strategy with its national adaptation strategy, its national adaptation plan, the mandatory elaboration of regional schemes for climate, air and energy, and the action of local communities

  12. The importance of the EU green paper on climate adaptation for the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An analysis of the EU Green Paper Climate Adaptation shows that this is not inconsistent with the National Adaptation, but does differ. The Green Paper also highlights the European dimension of climate adaptation and approaches climate adaptation in a broader context. Furthermore, the challenge is to remain alert and to bring Dutch ideas into the EU policy process, when concrete measures will be formulated

  13. International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments: Conference summary and statement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    The International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments was held in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, from May 22--25, 1995. Sponsored by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the US Country Studies Program, and the directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands Government, it was the first international conference focusing exclusively on adaptation to climate change. More than 100 people from 29 countries on five continents participated. The conference primarily addressed measures to anticipate the potential effects of climate change to minimize negative effects and take advantage of any positive effects. The focus was on what governments, institutions, and individuals can do to prepare for climate change. The conference dealt with two major topics: What adaptation options are most effective and efficient in anticipating climate change and what methods should be used to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptation options. Brief summaries are given from the following sessions on agriculture; Water resources; coastal resources; ecosystems and forests; fisheries; human settlements; water and agriculture; and the panel session on international adaptation in national communications and other development plans and needs for technical assistance.

  14. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  15. Approaching climate-adaptive facades with foldings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sack-Nielsen, Torsten

    2014-01-01

    envelopes based on folding principles such as origami. Three major aspects cover the project’s interest in this topic: Shape, kinetics and the application of new multi-functional materials form the interdisciplinary framework of this research. Shape// Initially small paper sketch models demonstrate folding...... to achieve autonomous, zero-energy responsiveness. Movement is self-actuated and fully reversible. Materials// The fact that a fold leads back to a flat sheet of material opens the possibility for easy processing of industrial products into complex shapes. It is the expectation to avoid any joints...... and traditional additive construction methods. Different layered material compounds are tested. Multi-functional ‘supersandwiches’ of stacked smart materials can be programmed in a patchwork of specific properties to fulfil the required performance regarding the climatic conditions. Through the process, hands...

  16. Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgeson, Lucien; Maslin, Mark; Poessinouw, Martyn; Howard, Steve

    2016-06-01

    Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined `adaptation economy', we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city's gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from #15 million to #1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies.

  17. Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Hartmann; Tejo Spit

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these EU networks have on the adaptive capacity in cities. This paper uses two Dutch cities as an empirical base to evaluate the influence of two EU climate adaptation projects on both the experience of ...

  18. Urban focus in climate change adaptation and risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Wamsler, Christine

    2014-01-01

    Urban communities will face increased risks, such as floods, landslides, heat stress and fires and water scarcity, as a consequence of climate change. The latest IPCC report (AR5) has for the first time devoted a whole chapter to urban areas. The assessment stresses the need to tackle urban risk through more effective adaptation planning.

  19. Adapting to Change in Andean Ecosystems: Climate and Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Valdivia, Corinne; Fernández-Baca, Edith

    2008-01-01

    The presentation summarizes the research activities conducted by SANREM CRSP LTRA4 Adapting to Change in the Andes in the Altiplano region. The objectives were to present the project, emphasizing the research activities revolving around climate, strategies and advocacy coalitions. LTRA-4 (Practices and Strategies for Vulnerable Agro-Ecosystems)

  20. Climate change adaptation strategy for the Folk Communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdul-Al-Pavel, Muha.; Khan, Mohammed Abu Sayed Arfin; Rahman, Syed Ajijur;

    2013-01-01

    of this study might be helpful for the flood affected folk communities produce vegetables for their own consumption and income. Likewise, new experiments with altered technique and vegetable species are recommended to conclusively develop climate change adaptation strategies for flood prone areas....

  1. Mainstreaming adaptation to climate change in Indian policy planning

    OpenAIRE

    Chaturvedi, Rajiv K; Kattumuri, Ruth; Ravindranath, Darshini

    2014-01-01

    Climate change affects the balance of natural and socio-economic systems. In the recent years, literature has accumulated on the potentially large-scale impacts of climate change on India. India has emerged as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world, with a high-dependence on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture, water resources, natural ecosystems and forestry, health, sanitation, infrastructure and energy. This necessitates a rapid response by the government, especially i...

  2. Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This article examines farmers' livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic and other stressors. Some of these responses have depleted and degraded natural resources such as forest, soil and water resources, which will complicate their living with climate change in the future. This will be particularly problematic to vulnerable groups such as women, children and pastoralists who have limited access to employment, markets and public services. In this light, fair adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in Morogoro and elsewhere in developing countries requires several complementary responses. Adaptation efforts should involve effective governance of natural resources because they function as safety nets to vulnerable groups. In addition, strengthening of national markets by infrastructure investments and institutional reforms is needed to give incentives to intensification and diversification in agriculture. Market participation also demands enhancement of human capital by public programs on health, education and wellbeing

  3. Livelihoods, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Morogoro, Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Paavola, Jouni [Sustainability Research Institute (SRI), School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT (United Kingdom)], E-mail: j.paavola@see.leeds.ac.uk

    2008-11-15

    This article examines farmers' livelihood responses and vulnerability to climate variability and other stressors in Morogoro, Tanzania, to understand their implications for adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in developing world more generally. In Morogoro, agricultural households have extended cultivation, intensified agriculture, diversified livelihoods and migrated to gain access to land, markets and employment as a response to climatic and other stressors. Some of these responses have depleted and degraded natural resources such as forest, soil and water resources, which will complicate their living with climate change in the future. This will be particularly problematic to vulnerable groups such as women, children and pastoralists who have limited access to employment, markets and public services. In this light, fair adaptation to climate change by agricultural households in Morogoro and elsewhere in developing countries requires several complementary responses. Adaptation efforts should involve effective governance of natural resources because they function as safety nets to vulnerable groups. In addition, strengthening of national markets by infrastructure investments and institutional reforms is needed to give incentives to intensification and diversification in agriculture. Market participation also demands enhancement of human capital by public programs on health, education and wellbeing.

  4. Climate Adaptation is About More Than Climate: Value-Driven Science Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanston, C.

    2015-12-01

    Efforts to deliver relevant scientific information and tools to diverse stakeholders have dramatically increased in recent years with the intention of promoting climate change adaptation. Much work has been done to understand the barriers to action, but these largely overlook the need to frame the discussion in terms of stakeholder values and co-create innovative solutions that meet their individual needs. A partnership-based effort in the upper Midwest and Northeast called the Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF; www.forestadaptation.org) ensures relevance, breadth, and credibility of its products through stakeholder inclusion at all levels. The fundamental role of the CCRF is to help people meet their land stewardship goals while minimizing climate risk. This represents a subtle but important shift in focus to people and their values, as opposed to climate change and its effects. The CCRF uses a climate planning tool, the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), along with ecosystem vulnerability assessments and a diverse "menu" of adaptation approaches to generate site-specific adaptation actions that meet explicit conservation objectives. These tools are integrated into an Adaptation Planning and Practices workshop that leads organizations through this structured process of designing adaptation tactics for their projects and plans. All of these tools were developed with stakeholders, or in response to their direct and continuing feedback. The CCRF has involved thousands of people and over 100 organizations, published six ecoregional vulnerability assessments with more than 130 authors, and generated more than 125 intentional adaptation demonstrations in real-world land management projects on federal, state, tribal, county, conservancy, and private lands. The CCRF contributes strongly to the USDA Regional Climate Hubs, working on the applied end of the continuum of climate services occupied by providers such as the CSCs, LCCs, RISAs, and RCCs.

  5. Overview of climate change adaptation platforms/services in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Street, Roger; Sanderson, Hans; Clare, Downing

    2015-01-01

    of services available. This paper was developed with input from country experts through a one-day expert meeting, that was held on 23 June 2014, back to back with the 24 June EIONET workshop on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (CCIVA) at the EEA. In addition, telephone interviews...... information on the nature and scope of the links between adaptation services, and climate services and disaster risk management services. The information provided covers the status and drivers for these links, how respective roles can be defined and relationships established, and how to enhance the quality......This Technical Paper is aimed at supporting European decision makers, in particular at national and transnational levels, by providing an overview on the state of play of adaptation platforms in Europe and an opportunity to learn from, and be inspired by existing practices. It also provides...

  6. Urban adaptation planning: the use and limits of climate science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodman, David; Carmin, Joann

    2011-11-15

    Cities face a mounting challenge from climate change. In developed and developing countries alike, rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, higher sea levels, and more frequent and severe extreme events such as droughts and floods threaten to overwhelm urban infrastructure, services and management systems. City officials recognise the need to adapt to climate change, and use scientific evidence to support their plans for doing so. But the precise details of these changes and the local impacts they will have cannot be predicted. Decision makers must learn to draw on scientific data while simultaneously managing the uncertainty inherent in future projections. Across the world, forward-looking city officials are proving themselves to be 'urban adaptation leaders' — mobilising political and public support for and devising flexible approaches to adaptation.

  7. Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stage, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation in developing countries, and identifies three key points for consideration in future studies. One key point is that all development policy should be formulated using forecasts from climate science as a baseline. When this is not done, there is risk that a false status quo without climate change is seen as an implicit baseline. Another key point is that authors must be clearer about their behavioral assumptions: Many studies either (problematically) assume profit maximization on the side of farm households, or do not specify behavioral assumptions at all. A third important point is that the allocation of rights is crucial for the results; if households have a right to maintain their current livelihoods, the costs of climate change in developing countries are considerably greater than traditional willingness-to-pay studies would indicate. Thus, costs and benefits of climate change adaptation cannot be analyzed using economic aspects only; climate science, behavioral science, and legal and moral aspects have crucial implications for the outcome of the analysis. PMID:20146767

  8. Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stage, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation in developing countries, and identifies three key points for consideration in future studies. One key point is that all development policy should be formulated using forecasts from climate science as a baseline. When this is not done, there is risk that a false status quo without climate change is seen as an implicit baseline. Another key point is that authors must be clearer about their behavioral assumptions: Many studies either (problematically) assume profit maximization on the side of farm households, or do not specify behavioral assumptions at all. A third important point is that the allocation of rights is crucial for the results; if households have a right to maintain their current livelihoods, the costs of climate change in developing countries are considerably greater than traditional willingness-to-pay studies would indicate. Thus, costs and benefits of climate change adaptation cannot be analyzed using economic aspects only; climate science, behavioral science, and legal and moral aspects have crucial implications for the outcome of the analysis.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Yong-Jian; CUI Jiang-Xue; WAN Su-Qin; LIU Min; CHEN Zheng-Hong; LIAO Yu-Fang; WANG Ji-Jun

    2013-01-01

    In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the scenario A1B, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38◦C per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

  10. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavita Tariyal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Himalayan region represents enormous variability of climates, hydrological and ecological systems, plus a diversity of cultures and communities. It is an essentiality to the ecological security of the Indian landmass, through providing forest cover, feeding recurrent rivers that are the source of potable water, irrigation, and hydropower, conserving biodiversity, providing a rich foundation for high value agriculture, and spectacular landscapes for sustainable tourism. Increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the troposphere and the consequential global warming is posing a great environmental threat to water and food security at universal level. Change in climate may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. This potential variability in climate will have a serious impact on several ecosystem services, such as cleaning water and removing carbon from the atmosphere. Various services of ecosystems viz. land and water resources, agriculture, biodiversity will experience a wide range of stresses together with pests and pathogens, invasive species, atmospheric pollution, acute events, wildfires and floods. Direct stresses posed due to climate change may get intensified through high temperatures, reduced water availability, and altered frequency of extreme events and severe storms. Climate change will potentially make a threat on the availability of, and access to, water resources. The Himalayan ecosystem is vulnerable to the impacts and consequences of a changes on account of natural causes, b climate change resulting from human-induced emissions and c developmental paradigms of the modern society. Adaptation factors in the element of ‘sustainability’ into development initiatives and provides for additional measures and resources to safeguard environmental gains against climate impacts.

  11. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-03-01

    Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  12. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-12-01

    Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  13. Managing for climate change on federal lands of the western United States: perceived usefulness of climate science, effectiveness of adaptation strategies, and barriers to implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry B. Kemp

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent mandates in the United States require federal agencies to incorporate climate change science into land management planning efforts. These mandates target possible adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the degree to which climate change is actively being considered in agency planning and management decisions is largely unknown. We explored the usefulness of climate change science for federal resource managers, focusing on the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies and barriers limiting the use of climate change science in adaptation efforts. Our study was conducted in the northern Rocky Mountains region of the western United States, where we interacted with 77 U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management personnel through surveys, semistructured interviews, and four collaborative workshops at locations across Idaho and Montana. We used a mixed-methods approach to evaluate managers' perceptions about adapting to and mitigating for climate change. Although resource managers incorporate general language about climate change in regional and landscape-level planning documents, they are currently not planning on-the-ground adaptation or mitigation projects. However, managers felt that their organizations were most likely to adapt to climate change through use of existing management strategies that are already widely implemented for other non climate-related management goals. These existing strategies, (e.g., thinning and prescribed burning are perceived as more feasible than new climate-specific methods (e.g., assisted migration because they already have public and agency support, accomplish multiple goals, and require less anticipation of the future timing and probability of climate change impacts. Participants reported that the most common barriers to using climate change information included a lack of management-relevant climate change science, inconsistent agency guidance, and insufficient time and resources to access

  14. Invited review: Are adaptations present to support dairy cattle productivity in warm climates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, A

    2011-05-01

    Environmental heat stress, present during warm seasons and warm episodes, severely impairs dairy cattle performance, particularly in warmer climates. It is widely viewed that warm climate breeds (Zebu and Sanga cattle) are adapted to the climate in which they evolved. Such adaptations might be exploited for increasing cattle productivity in warm climates and decrease the effect of warm periods in cooler climates. The literature was reviewed for presence of such adaptations. Evidence is clear for resistance to ticks and tick-transmitted diseases in Zebu and Sanga breeds as well as for a possible development of resistance to ticks in additional breeds. Development of resistance to ticks demands time; hence, it needs to be balanced with potential use of insecticides or vaccination. The presumption of higher sweating rates in Zebu-derived breeds, based upon morphological differences in sweat glands between breeds, has not been substantiated. Relatively few studies have examined hair coat characteristics and their responses to seasonal heat, particularly in temperate climate breeds. Recently, a gene for slick hair coat has been observed that improved heat tolerance when introduced into temperate climate breeds. No solid evidence exists that hair coat in these lines is lighter than in well-fed warm climate-adapted Holsteins. Warm climate breeds and their F1 crosses share as dominant characteristics lower maintenance requirements and milk yields, and limited response to improved feeding and management. These characteristics are not adaptations to a feed-limited environment but are constitutive and useful in serving survival when feed is scarce and seasonal and high temperatures prevail. The negative relationship between milk yield and fertility present in temperate climates breeds also prevails in Zebu cattle. Fertility impairment by warm conditions might be counteracted in advanced farming systems by extra corporeal early embryo culture. In general, adaptations found in

  15. Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2014-11-28

    Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

  16. Climate change and global warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change and the global budgets of the two main energy consumption related greenhouse gases, CO2 and CH4, are discussed. The global warming potential (GWP) of the non-CO2 greenhouse gases is defined and the large range of GWPs of CH4 in the literature is discussed. GWPs are expected to play an important role in energy policies and negotiations concerning lowering greenhouse gas emissions. (author). 20 refs, 4 figs, 4 tabs

  17. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.

  18. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change. PMID:26479830

  19. Governance of social dilemmas in climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisaro, Alexander; Hinkel, Jochen

    2016-04-01

    In the field of adaptation governance research, current discussion on the barriers to adaptation shows that theoretical explanations for why institutions emerge and how they enable or constrain adaptation are underdeveloped. In this Perspective, we show that there is a significant opportunity to advance the understanding of adaptation governance by integrating insights that have been developed in the extensive commons literature on the institutions that work to overcome social conflicts or dilemmas. 'Realist-materialist' approaches to understanding such collective action are particularly valuable to adaptation governance research because they emphasize how biophysical conditions give rise to certain types of social dilemma. Climate change affects these biophysical conditions, and thus may alter dilemmas or create new ones. Based on realist-materialist reasoning, this Perspective describes six types of dilemma, illustrates each with a case from the adaptation literature and draws on insights from the commons literature regarding relevant contextual conditions and effective policy instruments for overcoming social dilemmas. The dilemma types provide entry points for rigorous comparative adaptation research to deepen understanding of how context influences adaptation governance processes.

  20. Adapting to climate change in forest based land use systems: A guide to strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Secrett, C.M.

    1996-12-31

    The prospect of climate change and sea level rise as a result of greenhouse gas emissions presents a serious challenge to decision-makers concerned with ensuring sustainable development. This report provides a guide to means of reducing the potential impact of the global warming problem on the forest sector whilst ensuring that more immediate development priorities are met. The most effective response strategy will be one that simultaneously brings both immediate development and longer-term adaptive benefits. This report outlines ways of constructing an adaptive response strategy that can help achieve these ends. The approach is referred to as sustainable adaptation. A prototype methodological framework of the sustainable adaptation approach has been provided with the summary. The first priority of sustainable adaption is to base climate change responses on actions that meet basic ecological and social needs now and in the future. Solutions should necessarily include relieving current development pressures in the tropical forest sector. The key is to couple adaptive responses to climate change with sustainable development solutions to present-day forest use problems. Implementing adaptive land-use policies and management practices which are likely to minimise the adverse impacts of anticipated climate change should meet current sustainable management goals. Implementing sustainable land-use and forestry management practices should meet adaptation goals. This report presents a discussion of the fundamental issues underlying the development of a sustainable adaptation strategy and a prototype methodological framework. The findings are based on case studies conducted in Central America (Costa Rica and Nicaragua); SADCC countries in Africa (Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania); and Asia (Vietnam). 450 refs

  1. Adaptive strategies to climate change in Southern Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chidanti-Malunga, J.

    Climate change poses a big challenge to rural livelihoods in the Shire Valley area of Southern Malawi, where communities have depended almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture for generations. The Shire Valley area comprises of low-altitude dambo areas and uplands which have been the main agricultural areas. Since early to mid 1980s, the uplands have experienced prolonged droughts and poor rainfall distribution, while the dambos have experienced recurrent seasonal floods. This study assessed some of the adaptive strategies exercised by small-scale rural farmers in response to climate change in the Shire Valley. The methodology used in collecting information includes group discussions, household surveys in the area, secondary data, and field observations. The results show that small-scale rural farmers exercise a number of adaptive strategies in response to climate change. These adaptive strategies include: increased use of water resources for small-scale irrigation or wetland farming, mostly using simple delivery techniques; increased management of residual moisture; and increased alternative sources of income such as fishing and crop diversity. It was also observed that government promoted the use of portable motorized pumps for small-scale irrigation in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, these external interventions were not fully adopted; instead the farmers preferred local interventions which mostly had indigenous elements.

  2. Adaptation of Leaf Water Relations to Climatic and Habitat Water Availability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick J. Mitchell

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Successful management of forest systems requires a deeper understanding of the role of ecophysiological traits in enabling adaptation to high temperature and water deficit under current and anticipated changes in climate. A key attribute of leaf water relations is the water potential at zero turgor (πtlp, because it defines the operating water potentials over which plants actively control growth and gas exchange. This study examines the drivers of variation in πtlp with respect to species climate of origin and habitat water availability. We compiled a water relations database for 174 woody species occupying clearly delineated gradients in temperature and precipitation across the Australian continent. A significant proportion of the variability in πtlp (~35% could be explained by climatic water deficit and its interaction with summertime maximum temperature, demonstrating the strong selective pressure of aridity and high temperature in shaping leaf water relations among Australian species. Habitat water availability (midday leaf water potential, was also a significant predictor of πtlp (R2 = 0.43, highlighting the importance of species ecohydrologic niche under a set of climatic conditions. Shifts in πtlp in response to both climatic and site-based drivers of water availability emphasises its adaptive significance and its suitability as a predictor of plant performance under future climatic change.

  3. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  4. Communal farming, climate change adaptation and the media in Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mthokozisi P. Ndhlovu

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is destroying Zimbabwean communal farmers’ agricultural activities – a source of living for most people. As communal farmers struggle to adapt, the media is expected to assume a fundamental theoretical role of educating and informing them about the appropriate adaptation techniques. Located in Umguza District in Matabeleland North Province, the study explored how communal farmers created meaning out of climate change media content and its influence on their agricultural practices from October 2014 to April 2015. In doing so, the study used the Two-Step Flow theory and Hall’s Encoding and Decoding Model. Entrenched in pragmatism, the study embedded quantitative techniques at different stages. Multistage sampling combining Simple Random Sampling (SRS, purposive and systematic sampling techniques was used to identify the 263 households for semi structured questionnaires, direct observations and in-depth interviews. The findings were analysed using Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS, thematic analysis and pattern matching. The results show that personal observations; print, broadcast and online media; and opinion leaders were the main sources of climate change information. The radio was the most used medium in communicating climate change adaptation though it was the second most accessed after mobile phones. Conservation Agriculture and planting of drought-resistant crops were some of the adaptation techniques communicated in the media. When interacting with media content, communal farmers create their own meaning influenced by their cultural values, resulting in some adopting, rejecting or modifying certain adaptation techniques. The study concludes that opinion leaders are fundamental in communal farmers’ interaction with media but their influence must not be overestimated.

  5. Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

  6. Evidence needed to manage freshwater ecosystems in a changing climate: turning adaptation principles into practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilby, R L; Orr, H; Watts, G; Battarbee, R W; Berry, P M; Chadd, R; Dugdale, S J; Dunbar, M J; Elliott, J A; Extence, C; Hannah, D M; Holmes, N; Johnson, A C; Knights, B; Milner, N J; Ormerod, S J; Solomon, D; Timlett, R; Whitehead, P J; Wood, P J

    2010-09-01

    It is widely accepted that climate change poses severe threats to freshwater ecosystems. Here we examine the scientific basis for adaptively managing vulnerable habitats and species. Our views are shaped by a literature survey of adaptation in practice, and by expert opinion. We assert that adaptation planning is constrained by uncertainty about evolving climatic and non-climatic pressures, by difficulties in predicting species- and ecosystem-level responses to these forces, and by the plasticity of management goals. This implies that adaptation measures will have greatest acceptance when they deliver multiple benefits, including, but not limited to, the amelioration of climate impacts. We suggest that many principles for biodiversity management under climate change are intuitively correct but hard to apply in practice. This view is tested using two commonly assumed doctrines: "increase shading of vulnerable reaches through tree planting" (to reduce water temperatures); and "set hands off flows" (to halt potentially harmful abstractions during low flow episodes). We show that the value of riparian trees for shading, water cooling and other functions is partially understood, but extension of this knowledge to water temperature management is so far lacking. Likewise, there is a long history of environmental flow assessment for allocating water to competing uses, but more research is needed into the effectiveness of ecological objectives based on target flows. We therefore advocate more multi-disciplinary field and model experimentation to test the cost-effectiveness and efficacy of adaptation measures applied at different scales. In particular, there is a need for a major collaborative programme to: examine natural adaptation to climatic variation in freshwater species; identify where existing environmental practice may be insufficient; review the fitness of monitoring networks to detect change; translate existing knowledge into guidance; and implement best practice

  7. On study of global warming influence on natural resources and Kazakstan economy and adaption activity under possible climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Results of study of anthropogenic climate changes and its potential influence on economics and natural resources of Kazakhstan are generalized. Possible measures on adaptation and weakening of greenhouse effect impact in power engineering, agriculture and water recourses management are discussed. Further actions related with fulfillment of Republic of Kazakhstan obligations within Framework Convention of United Nations on Climate Change are proposed. (author)

  8. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change: Policy Perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtnay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria

    2011-10-15

    Agriculture has a crucial role to play in meeting development goals – from demand for food as populations grow and become wealthier to maintaining essential ecosystem services, diverse livelihoods, and economic development. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has resulted in a sector that is not adequately prepared for the challenges of climate change. Yet for most developing countries, agriculture has been one of the earliest sectors to be affected by climate change, with negative impacts already apparent and more serious consequences projected for the future. There is increasing recognition by both the climate change and agricultural development communities that agriculture needs to be part of a new global climate change deal. 'No agriculture, no deal' is a clear signal from concerned stakeholders that agriculture will be a key feature of climate change negotiations, both for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting vulnerable populations and economies. There has been a long history of assessments of the impact of climate change on agriculture, and recent international movements to press toward effective action are noteworthy. This Policy Perspectives paper summarises the results from a recent study led by the International Institute for Environment and Development, the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, with national teams in five developing countries. The principal conclusions inform policy and planning by addressing the following issues: 1. Framing and methodological development in the assessment of climate adaptation. 2. Assessment of current vulnerabilities, and potential future impacts and costs of adaptation. 3. Identification of strategies and measures considered priorities across regions and types of agriculture in 'pathways of adaptation'.

  9. Factors Affecting Farmers’ Adaptation Strategies to Environmental Degradation and Climate Change Effects: A Farm Level Study in Bangladesh

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammed Nasir Uddin; Wolfgang Bokelmann; Jason Scott Entsminger

    2014-01-01

    Offering a case study of coastal Bangladesh, this study examines the adaptation of agriculturalists to degrading environmental conditions likely to be caused or exacerbated under global climate change. It examines four central components: (1) the rate of self-reported adoption of adaptive mechanisms (coping strategies) as a result of changes in climate; (2) ranking the potential coping strategies based on their perceived importance to agricultural enterprises; (3) identification the socio-ec...

  10. Adaptation to climatic changes in agriculture and horticulture; Tilpasning til klimaaendringer i landbrug og havebrug

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olesen, J.E. [Danmrks JordbrugsForskning, Afd. for Jordbrugsproduktionog Miljoe (Denmark); Jacobsen, Brian H. [KVL, Foedevareoekonomisk Institut (Denmark); Thorup-Kristensen, K.; Andersson, Niels [Danmarks JordbrugsForskning, Afd. for Havebrugsproduktion (Denmark); Kudsk, P.; Joergensen, Lise N.; Hansen, Lars M. [Danmarks JordbrugsForskning, Afd. for Plantebeskyttelse og Skadedyr (Denmark); Nielsen, Birte L. [Danmarks JordbrugsForskning, Afd. for Husdyrsundhed, Velfaerd og Ernaering (Denmark); Boelt, B. [Danmarks Jordbrugsforskning, Afd. for Genetik og Bioteknologi (Denmark)

    2006-12-15

    Denmark is an important agricultural country with a large export of livestock products and seeds. The agricultural exports constitute 11% of total exports from Denmark. There has been an increasing focus on the environmental effects of agriculture, which has led to action plans for reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus emissions and limitation in pesticide usage. The anthropogenic climate changes are expected over a 100 year period for the most commonly used emissions scenarios to lead to increases in the annual mean temperature of 3-5 deg. C. The winter precipitation will increase by 20-40% and summer precipitation will decrease by 10-25%. Danish agriculture will be favourably positioned with respect the expected effects of climate changes on production potential. Utilisation of this potential requires adaptation in cropping and management practices. A distinction can be made between short-term adaptations, which aim at optimising production under current conditions, and long-term adaptations, which involve changes in production structure, land use, irrigation systems etc. and development and adaptation of new crop species and varieties. Most adaptations will be able to happen autonomously in the sector, i.e. without overall control and planning. However, this requires that the climatic changes occurs sufficiently slowly and that research, development and advice within the sector is aware that changes in climatic conditions require that older data and experience must be used with caution. An adaptation strategy will be required within the interaction between agriculture and environment. This is due to the comprehensive regulations within this area. A regulated and controlled adaptation is therefore expected to be particularly relevant within drainage of lowlands, irrigation, fertilisation and crop protection. (au)

  11. Role-play simulations for climate change adaptation education and engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumore, Danya; Schenk, Todd; Susskind, Lawrence

    2016-08-01

    In order to effectively adapt to climate change, public officials and other stakeholders need to rapidly enhance their understanding of local risks and their ability to collaboratively and adaptively respond to them. We argue that science-based role-play simulation exercises -- a type of 'serious game' involving face-to-face mock decision-making -- have considerable potential as education and engagement tools for enhancing readiness to adapt. Prior research suggests role-play simulations and other serious games can foster public learning and encourage collective action in public policy-making contexts. However, the effectiveness of such exercises in the context of climate change adaptation education and engagement has heretofore been underexplored. We share results from two research projects that demonstrate the effectiveness of role-play simulations in cultivating climate change adaptation literacy, enhancing collaborative capacity and facilitating social learning. Based on our findings, we suggest such exercises should be more widely embraced as part of adaptation professionals' education and engagement toolkits.

  12. Climate adaptation - 5 key research themes; Denmark; Klimatilpasning - 5 centrale forskningstemaer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersen, Bent; Binnerup, S.; Bijl, L. van der; Villholth, K.G.; Drews, M.; Strand, I.F.; Henrichs, T.; Larsen, Niels; Timmermann, T.; Moseholm, L.

    2009-06-15

    The report proposes five key research themes under the heading 'Future climate and climate adaptation' which can support the Danish climate adaptation efforts. These themes underpin climate adaptation in the light of research needs identified by the research environments and sectors under the government's strategy on adaptation to climate change in Denmark from March 2008. The paper has been prepared within the framework of RESEARCH2015-proposal by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation in order to bring about the knowledge and tools that are demanded by sectors and authorities to implement the government's climate adaptation strategy. This concept paper for research themes is a thorough, holistic and inter-sectoral suggestion for future research priorities in climate adaptation with anchoring in both the research community as well as in the political-administrative system. The five key themes are; 1. Models and climate adaptation; 2. Communities and climate adaptation; 3. Construction and climate adaptation; 4. Landscape and climate adaptation; 5. Climate adaptation in the coastal zone. The overall research needs over a 5 year period is estimated at 700 million DKK, of which 85 million DKK yearly can be estimated to be financed primarily through national basic funds and research council funds. Research is assumed to be coupled to external financing, for which the EU's 7th Framework Program and the Nordic excellence and innovation program in the energy, climate and environment will be significant sources.

  13. Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Thomas; Spit, Tejo

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these

  14. Implementing European climate adaptation policy : How local policymakers react to european policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Thomas; Spit, Tejo

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these

  15. The role of knowledge and power in climate change adaptation governance: a systematic literature review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, M.J.; Dewulf, A.; Termeer, C.J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    The long-term character of climate change and the high costs of adaptation measures, in combination with their uncertain effects, turn climate adaptation governance into a torturous process. We systematically review the literature on climate adaptation governance to analyze the scholarly understandi

  16. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian

    the benefits of provision of positive environmental values and the preservation of water resources. It is found that neglecting intangible values in climate adaptation assessment can easily bias the decision making; the reframed approach hence provide an important tool for assessment of additional benefits...... century, the design objectives of urban drainage systems also include elements such as environmental protection and amenity values. Among the objectives, flood protection has received much attention in recent years as a result of increasing flood hazards and risks due to climate change impacts. Although...... mitigation steps have been taken in attempts to reduce global warming, adaptation is highly advocated to supplement mitigation to cope with the unavoidable adverse impacts of flooding on vulnerable assets. The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating...

  17. Climate Change Assessment and Adaptation Planning for the Southeast US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgakakos, A. P.; Yao, H.; Zhang, F.

    2012-12-01

    A climate change assessment is carried out for the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin in the southeast US following an integrated water resources assessment and planning framework. The assessment process begins with the development/selection of consistent climate, demographic, socio-economic, and land use/cover scenarios. Historical scenarios and responses are analyzed first to establish baseline conditions. Future climate scenarios are based on GCMs available through the IPCC. Statistical and/or dynamic downscaling of GCM outputs is applied to generate high resolution (12x12 km) atmospheric forcing, such as rainfall, temperature, and ET demand, over the ACF River Basin watersheds. Physically based watershed, aquifer, and estuary models (lumped and distributed) are used to quantify the hydrologic and water quality river basin response to alternative climate and land use/cover scenarios. Demand assessments are carried out for each water sector, for example, water supply for urban, agricultural, and industrial users; hydro-thermal facilities; navigation reaches; and environmental/ecological flow and lake level requirements, aiming to establish aspirational water use targets, performance metrics, and management/adaptation options. Response models for the interconnected river-reservoir-aquifer-estuary system are employed next to assess actual water use levels and other sector outputs under a specific set of hydrologic inputs, demand targets, and management/adaptation options. Adaptive optimization methods are used to generate system-wide management policies conditional on inflow forecasts. The generated information is used to inform stakeholder planning and decision processes aiming to develop consensus on adaptation measures, management strategies, and performance monitoring indicators. The assessment and planning process is driven by stakeholder input and is inherently iterative and sequential.

  18. The infrastructure bias in Vietnamese climate change adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Lindegaard, Lily Salloum

    2013-01-01

    This working paper examines the climate change adaptation strategies of meso-level, or mid-level, government institutions in central Vietnam. It reveals a significant bias towards infrastructure over so-called 'soft' solutions. The main drivers behind this bias - a techno - cratic desire for visible solutions, a need to secure socio-economic development and aspects of the state apparatus itself - are explored and explained using data from interviews with government officials. Ultimately, the ...

  19. What kind of leadership do we need for climate adaptation? A framework for analyzing leadership objectives, functions, and tasks in climate change adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Sander Meijerink; Sabina Stiller

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the relevance of various leadership concepts for climate change adaptation. After defining four main leadership challenges which are derived from the key characteristics of climate adaptation issues, a review of modern leadership theories addressing these challenges is presented. On the basis of this review we develop an integrative framework for analyzing leadership for climate change adaptation. It distinguishes between various leadership functions which together contrib...

  20. A need for planned adaptation to climate change in the wine industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Marc J.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    2011-09-01

    The diversity of wine production depends on subtle differences in microclimate and is therefore especially sensitive to climate change. A warmer climate will impact directly on wine-grapes through over-ripening, drying out, rising acidity levels, and greater vulnerability to pests and disease, resulting in changes in wine quality (e.g. complexity, balance and structure) or potentially the style of wine that can be produced. The growing scientific evidence for significant climate change in the coming decades means that adaptation will be of critical importance to the multi-billion dollar global wine-industry in general, and to quality wine producers in particular (White et al 2006, 2009; Hertsgaard 2011). Adaptation is understood as an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected environmental change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC 2007). Autonomous adaptation has been an integral part of the 20th century wine industry. Technological advances, changes in consumer demand, and global competition have meant that growers and producers have had to adapt to stay in business. The gradual temperature rise in the 20th Century (0.7 °C globally) has been accommodated successfully by gradual changes in vine management, technological measures, production control, and marketing (White et al 2009), although this has in many cases resulted in the production of bolder, more alcoholic wines (Hertsgaard 2011). In spite of this success, the wine industry is surprisingly conservative when it comes to considering longer term planned adaptation for substantial climate change impacts. A few producers are expanding to new locations at higher altitudes or cooler climates (e.g. Torres is developing new vineyards high in the Pyrenees, and Mouton Rothschild is setting up new vineyards in South America), and the legal and cultural restrictions of Appelation d'Origine Cȏntrollée (AOC) systems are being discussed (White et al 2009

  1. Reduce land degradation, climate change and adaptation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The land degradation and desertification are a serious threat to the sustainability of production food in many areas of the Earth. the methods ecosystems and the concomitant effects management of climate change are altering the processes physical, chemical and biological processes that regulate the complex balance of terrestrial ecosystems and soil particularly in areas climatically characterized by conditions arid, semi-arid and dry sub humid areas. The RIO + 20 Conference has recognized the risk of desertification and it proposed for the post 2015 agenda the goal of a world 'Land Degradation Neutral'.The challenge of adaptation to changes climate will require a greater involvement scientific research in support of conservation and use of natural resources both in Italy and in all contexts where the challenge of sustainability of development is more urgent.

  2. Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wassie Berhanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants and implied economic impacts of climate change adaptation strategies in the context of traditional pastoralism. It is based on econometric analysis of survey data generated from household level interviews in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Pastoralists’ perception of climate change in the region is found to be very consistent with the actually recorded trends of increased temperature and the evident secular declines in precipitation. Not only long-term declines, trends in the region’s rainfall also appear to have taken a shift towards the direction of more unpredictability. Pastoralist adaptation response strategies broadly involve adjustments in pastoral practices and shifts to non-pastoral livelihoods. Results of the estimated models confirm that pastoral mobility is still quite essential in the present context of climate-induced household vulnerabilities. Increased mobility and diversification of pastoral herd portfolios in favor of a drought-tolerant species (camel are found to be positively associated with pastoral household net income. A policy stance that ignores the detrimental impacts of the currently pervasive private rangeland enclosures or intends to hasten pastoralist sedentarization in the area is simply untenable in the present context of climate-induced risks and pastoral livelihood vulnerability.

  3. Adaptation Strategies and Resilience to Climate Change of Historic Dwellings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Rubio-Bellido

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Historic city centres have a large amount of dwellings in Europe, which were built to provide a comfortable shelter with the absence of mechanical means. The knowledge of climate responsive design strategies can play a significant role in reducing the energy demand of extant buildings, paving the way for its sustainable development in the face of the rising threat to its occupants of climate change. The residential architecture, developed, in most cases, in dense urban centres, was built using both available materials and traditional and academic construction technologies. This paper thoroughly investigates the extant urban conglomerate in Cádiz and analyses, in a qualitative and quantitative manner, which bioclimatic design strategies were applied and the city’s adaptation for future climate scenarios. The results indicate that historic housing in Cádiz is creatively adapted to the local natural conditions by means of a combination of climate responsive strategies, and there is significant scope for improvement in the ongoing response to global warming.

  4. Adaptation measures for climate change and the urban heat island in Japan's built environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change scenarios are discussed for Japan with clear implications drawn for the built environment in terms of increased temperatures of 4-5oC, rising sea levels and subterranean water tables. Research on the impacts and adaptation measures for global warming in Japan is reviewed. One of the most significant impacts of climate change in Japan will exacerbate the existing heat island phenomenon in cities by absorbing increased solar radiation. This will lead to further increases in temperatures in an urban microclimate with negative implications for energy and water consumption, human health and discomfort, and local ecosystems. The current urban heat island phenomenon and its impacts are described. The relationships between climate change and urban heat island impacts are discussed. Potential adaptation measures to those impacts are also discussed and proposed. (author)

  5. Establishment of an indicator concept for the German strategy on adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von; Wulfert, Katrin [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Luthardt, Vera; Kreinsen, Beatrice; Schultz-Sternberg, R.; Hommel, Robert [Hochschule fuer Nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Even if we succeed in achieving the EU target of reducing global warming to 2 C, it will be absolutely essential to adapt to changing climatic conditions. The greenhouse gases currently present in the atmosphere will influence the climate in coming decades. The day on which it is quite clear which climatic scenario prevails, so that it is possible to model all relevant processes down to regional level, will be the day on which it is too late to adapt to the actual scenario. Our endeavours to adapt to climate change do not mean, however, that we can neglect to take measures in order to reduce the output of greenhouse gases. It is important to remember that on their own, neither adaptation nor mitigation can prevent the grave impacts resulting from climate change. In fact, they complement each other meaningfully thus helping to alleviate the risks of climate change. On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the DAS (German Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change), (Bundesregierung 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and fore-most, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide a guideline for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in this process. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and advance the DAS. An integral part of this will be the Special Information System 'Adaptation' (FISKA) and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far

  6. How are farmers adapting to climate change in Vietnam?: Endogeneity and sample selection in a rice yield model

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Bingxin; Zhu, Tingju; Breisinger, Clemens; Manh Hai, Nguyen

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines how a changing climate may affect rice production and how Vietnamese farmers are likely to adapt to various climatic conditions using an innovative yield function approach, taking into account sample selection bias and endogeneity of inputs. Model results suggest that although climate change can potentially reduce rice production, farmers will respond mainly by adjusting the production portfolio and levels of input use. However, investments in rural infrastructure and huma...

  7. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-05-01

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change. PMID:23618474

  8. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-30

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change.

  9. Adaptation to Climate Change in European Water Law and Policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea M. Keessen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change exacerbates the challenges that water management nowadays has to deal with. This highlights the need for a legal framework that promotes adaptation by addressing the ecological value of water and the risks of flooding and drought. This paper analyzes to what extent the European legal framework meets this need. This is evaluated by analyzing to what extent the Water Framework Directive, the Floods Directive and the Water Scarcity and Drought Strategy build resilience. Resilience is an important concept in the adaptation to climate change discourse. It refers to the capacity of a social-ecological system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks. This paper uses five criteria to measure this: (1 the flexibility of rules and (2 the adaptiveness of such rules (3 openness, public participation and access to the courts (4 multilevel governance at the bioregional scale and (5 effectiveness. The European legal framework partly meets these criteria. It offers a river basin approach and both the setting of goals and objectives and their achievement is a multilevel, cyclical process, which includes public participation. However, the achievement of the goals is not easily enforceable and coordination within international river basins is legally weak. This detracts from the expected effectiveness of the EU legal framework in promoting adaptation by protecting the aquatic ecosystem and reducing flood and drought risks.

  10. Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathleen Ann. Dietrich

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a methodological contribution to emerging debates on the role of learning, particularly forward-looking (anticipatory learning, as a key element for adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. First, we describe two major challenges: understanding adaptation as a process and recognizing the inadequacy of existing learning tools, with a specific focus on high poverty contexts and complex livelihood-vulnerability risks. Then, the article examines learning processes from a dynamic systems perspective, comparing theoretical aspects and conceptual advances in resilience thinking and action research/learning (AR/AL. Particular attention is paid to learning loops (cycles, critical reflection, spaces for learning, and power. Finally, we outline a methodological framework to facilitate iterative learning processes and adaptive decision making in practice. We stress memory, monitoring of key drivers of change, scenario planning, and measuring anticipatory capacity as crucial ingredients. Our aim is to identify opportunities and obstacles for forward-looking learning processes at the intersection of climatic uncertainty and development challenges in Africa, with the overarching objective to enhance adaptation and resilient livelihood pathways, rather than learning by shock.

  11. Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. PMID:26119330

  12. State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

  13. Climate Change Adaptation Among Tibetan Pastoralists: Challenges in Enhancing Local Adaptation Through Policy Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R. Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

    2012-10-01

    While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

  14. Governmental responses and smallholders' adaptations to climatic variability in southeastern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardero Jimenez, Silvia Sofia; Schmook, Birgit; Christman, Zachary; Radel, Claudia

    2016-04-01

    Maize agriculture comprises a third of the area under cultivation in Mexico (75 million hectares), with only a quarter of this crop irrigated artificially. With the great dependence of the country's dominant crop on natural rainfall, there is potential for major losses in maize production due to climatic events, such as irregular rainfalls, droughts, and hurricanes. In 2012, droughts alone caused losses of 16 billion Mexican pesos nationwide in the agricultural sector. Over the last decades, political and economic pressures in the agrarian sector have further stressed Mexican smallholder farmers, as they have to respond to a combination of economic and climatic factors. This interdisciplinary study first documents local climate changes and then explores smallholder farmers' adaptations and governmental policy responses to the variable and changing precipitation and temperature patterns across southeastern Mexico. To assess local climate changes, we analyzed precipitation and temperature data from the land-based weather station network of CONAGUA for the 1973-2012 period. Precipitation anomalies were estimated to evaluate the annual and seasonal stability, deficit, or surplus; and linear regressions used to evaluate precipitation and temperature trends. Climatic analysis demonstrated, 1) a considerable increase in temperature across the study area; 2) a decline in precipitation across a sub-section; 3) increased drought frequency; and 4) an increase in negative anomalies in recent years. We then combine findings from our previous research (Mardero et al. 2014 and Mardero et al. 2015), based on interviews with 150 swidden maize smallholders in 10 communities, to new data from in-depth interviews with managers of local and regional agricultural associations and with members of governmental institutions in charge of climate policy implementation (n=19). The new data allow us to explore governmental responses to climatic variability in the agricultural sector in direct

  15. Developing integrated approaches to climate change adaptation in rural communities of the Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian

    2010-05-01

    Over centuries, Andean communities have developed strategies to cope with climate variability and extremes, such as cold waves or droughts, which can have severe impacts on their welfare. Nevertheless, the rural population, living at altitudes of 3000 to 4000 m asl or even higher, remains highly vulnerable to external stresses, partly because of the extreme living conditions, partly as a consequence of high poverty. Moreover, recent studies indicate that climatic extreme events have increased in frequency in the past years. A Peruvian-Swiss Climate Change Adaptation Programme in Peru (PACC) is currently undertaking strong efforts to understand the links between climatic conditions and local livelihood assets. The goal is to propose viable strategies for adaptation in collaboration with the local population and governments. The program considers three main areas of action, i.e. (i) water resource management; (ii) disaster risk reduction; and (iii) food security. The scientific studies carried out within the programme follow a highly transdisciplinary approach, spanning the whole range from natural and social sciences. Moreover, the scientific Peruvian-Swiss collaboration is closely connected to people and institutions operating at the implementation and political level. In this contribution we report on first results of thematic studies, address critical questions, and outline the potential of integrative research for climate change adaptation in mountain regions in the context of a developing country.

  16. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Comoe River Basin (West Africa).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yéo, Wonnan Eugène; Goula, Bi Tié Albert; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Afouda, Abel

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is impacting water users in many sectors: water supply, farming, industry, hydropower, fishing, housing, navigation and health. Existing situations, like population growth, movement of populations from rural to urban areas, poverty and pollution can aggravate the impacts of climate change. The aim of the study is to evaluate the vulnerability of different water user groups to climate change and define communities' adaptation strategies in the Comoe River Basin. Information was collected on communities' concerns and perception on changes in climate and potential adaptation measures and strategies. Results show that 95 % of the sample in the study communities had heard of it and are aware that climate change is occurring. They have been experiencing changes in economic activity and cropping pattern, reduced water level in rivers, crop failure, delay in cropping season, new pests and diseases, food insecurity, drop in income and decline in crop yield. Results also show that communities employ various adaptation strategies including crops diversification, substitution and calendar redefinition, agroforestry, borrowing from friends and money lenders and increasing fertilizer application. PMID:27386296

  17. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Comoe River Basin (West Africa).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yéo, Wonnan Eugène; Goula, Bi Tié Albert; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Afouda, Abel

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is impacting water users in many sectors: water supply, farming, industry, hydropower, fishing, housing, navigation and health. Existing situations, like population growth, movement of populations from rural to urban areas, poverty and pollution can aggravate the impacts of climate change. The aim of the study is to evaluate the vulnerability of different water user groups to climate change and define communities' adaptation strategies in the Comoe River Basin. Information was collected on communities' concerns and perception on changes in climate and potential adaptation measures and strategies. Results show that 95 % of the sample in the study communities had heard of it and are aware that climate change is occurring. They have been experiencing changes in economic activity and cropping pattern, reduced water level in rivers, crop failure, delay in cropping season, new pests and diseases, food insecurity, drop in income and decline in crop yield. Results also show that communities employ various adaptation strategies including crops diversification, substitution and calendar redefinition, agroforestry, borrowing from friends and money lenders and increasing fertilizer application.

  18. Adapting to climate change : an introduction for Canadian municipalities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change studies have indicated that Canada will experience large shifts in weather patterns in the next few decades due to both natural variations as well as human activities that release greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the world's average surface temperature is expected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C over the period 1990-2100. The use of fossils fuels in transportation, manufacturing, heating, cooling, and electricity generation is the biggest source of GHGs such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. The rest comes from land use activities, such as agriculture and forestry. Total GHG emissions in Canada amounted to 740 megatonnes in 2003. Municipalities are directly and indirectly responsible for almost half of those emissions. This document outlined decision-making processes to help municipal governments make informed decisions and take appropriate mitigative action. Topics of discussion focused on the effect of global warming on public health, agriculture, water, coastline and marine management. Among the impacts of climate change are droughts; diminished and lower quality surface water; a higher incidence of vector-borne diseases; more frequent heat waves with discomfort in urban centres; and, an increase in storm surges in coastal regions. The greatest concerns for most municipalities are intense precipitation, heavy winds, or ice storms. Examples of how 6 Canadian communities are starting to address climate change adaptation were presented in the hope that these examples will help raise awareness of climate change impacts in other communities and provide ideas as to how these challenges might be addressed. The Toronto Heat-Health Alert System, the Greater Vancouver Regional District Stormwater Management Program, the Halifax Regional Municipality ClimateSMART Initiative, Sept-Iles' Shoreline Erosion Program, the City of Iqaluit Sustainable Development strategy and the Tidal

  19. The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Dutra, E.; Engelbrecht, F. A.; Archer Van Garderen, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Werner, M. G. F.

    2013-12-01

    Subsistence farming in Southern Africa is vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. The yield of rain-fed agriculture depends largely on rainfall-related factors such as total seasonal rainfall, anomalous onsets and lengths of the rainy season and the frequency of occurrence of dry spells. Livestock, in turn, may be seriously impacted by climatic stress with, for example, exceptionally hot days, affecting condition, reproduction, vulnerability to pests and pathogens and, ultimately, morbidity and mortality. Climate change may affect the frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions, impacting on the success of subsistence farming. A potentially interesting adaptation measure comprises the timely forecasting and warning of such extreme events, combined with mitigation measures that allow farmers to prepare for the event occurring. This paper investigates how the frequency of extreme events may change in the future due to climate change over southern Africa and, in more detail, the Limpopo basin using a set of climate change projections from several regional climate model downscalings. Furthermore the paper assesses the predictability of these indicators by seasonal meteorological forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system. The focus is on the frequency of dry spells as well as the frequency of heat stress conditions expressed in the Temperature Heat Index. In areas where their frequency of occurrence increases in the future and predictability is found, seasonal forecasts will gain importance in the future as they can more often lead to informed decision making to implement mitigation measures. The multi-model climate projections suggest that the frequency of dry spells is not likely to increase substantially, whereas there is a clear and coherent signal among the models, of an increase in the frequency of heat stress conditions by the end of the century. The skill analysis of the seasonal forecast

  20. Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

    2016-04-01

    In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  1. Quantifying the relevance of adaptive thermal comfort models in moderate thermal climate zones

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoof, Joost van; Hensen, Jan L.M. [Faculty of Architecture, Building and Planning, Technische Universiteit Eindhoven, Vertigo 6.18, P.O. Box 513, 5600 MB Eindhoven (Netherlands)

    2007-01-15

    Standards governing thermal comfort evaluation are on a constant cycle of revision and public review. One of the main topics being discussed in the latest round was the introduction of an adaptive thermal comfort model, which now forms an optional part of ASHRAE Standard 55. Also on a national level, adaptive thermal comfort guidelines come into being, such as in the Netherlands. This paper discusses two implementations of the adaptive comfort model in terms of usability and energy use for moderate maritime climate zones by means of literature study, a case study comprising temperature measurements, and building performance simulation. It is concluded that for moderate climate zones the adaptive model is only applicable during summer months, and can reduce energy for naturally conditioned buildings. However, the adaptive thermal comfort model has very limited application potential for such climates. Additionally we suggest a temperature parameter with a gradual course to replace the mean monthly outdoor air temperature to avoid step changes in optimum comfort temperatures. (author)

  2. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ploubidis George B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622 acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility, Odds Ratio (OR = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.4 - 4.0, endanger their life (perceived severity, OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1, or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5. Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1 or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2 for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4 or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2

  3. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  4. Funding Adaptation to Climate Change: What, who and how to fund?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burton, Ian [Meteorological Service of Canada (Canada); Huq, Saleemul

    2003-07-01

    Adaptation has been recognized as a crucial component in the portfolio of response measures to the problem of human induced climate change. This recognition is strengthened because efforts to reduce the potential adverse impacts of such climate change through mitigation, through the Kyoto Protocol of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have been slow to come to fruition. Thus, even if the Kyoto Protocol comes into force soon, and all the signatories are able to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions to meet their Kyoto targets, some adverse impacts of climate change, at least for the short to medium term, will inevitably occur. Indeed, some early signs of this have already been detected.

  5. KLARA. Climate change - impacts, risks, adaptation; KLARA. Klimawandel - Auswirkungen, Risiken, Anpassung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stock, M. (ed.)

    2005-07-15

    The regional study KLARA, an acronym for 'Climate change - impacts, risks, Adaptation', present results of investigations on different areas of potential vulnerability for the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg. The areas covered are: 1. Analysis of vulnerabilities, 2. Regional climate change in Baden-Wuerttemberg, 3. Possible impacts on human health, 4. Impacts on agriculture including fruit-growing and viticulture, 5. Impacts on forestry, 6. Possible chances for tourism in the summer, 7. Impacts on nature, in particular ornithology, 8. Impacts on river navigation and use of hydropower, 9. Development of extreme events with high damage potential. An essential objective of the study is the identification of impact-reducing measures of adaptation in the areas considered. (orig.)

  6. Climate change adaptation impact cost assessment in France. Second phase report. September 2009

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firstly, this report presents the context and challenges of works dealing with climate change adaptation assessment: observations and perspectives of climate change, concepts and definitions of adaptation to climate change, adaptation within national, European and international context, objectives and organisation of the France's inter-departmental Group. It describes the chosen methodology: hypothesis, methodological tools (climate model), bibliographical tool, and heat wave counting methodology. It discusses the present results, outlines the encountered difficulties and discusses the perspectives for future work

  7. A cross-region study: climate change adaptation in Malawi's agro-based systems

    OpenAIRE

    Assa, Maganga Mulagha; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos G.; Mapemba, Lawrence D.

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture in Malawi is vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. Adaptation is identified as one of the options to abate the negative impacts of the changing climate. This study analyzed the factors influencing different climate change adaptation choices by smallholder farmers in Malawi. We sampled 900 farmers from all three regions of Malawi, using the multistage sampling procedure, study piloted in 2012. We analyzed smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptation choices with Multinom...

  8. Urban Planning and Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fulvia Pinto

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a current phenomenon: the temperatures rise, rainfall patterns are changing, glaciers melt and the average global sea level is rising. It is expected that these changes will continue and that the extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, will become more frequent and intense. The impact and vulnerability factors for nature, for the economy and for our health are different, depending on the territorial, social and economic aspects. The current scientific debate is focused on the need to formulate effective policies for adaptation and mitigation to climate change. The city plays an important role in this issue: it emits the most greenhouse gas emissions (more than 60% of the world population currently lives in urban areas and the city is more exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Urban planning and territorial governance play a crucial role in this context: the international debate on the sustainability of urban areas is increasing. It’s necessary to adapt the tools of building regulations to increase the quality of energy - environment of the cities.

  9. Climate adaptation wedges: a case study of premium wine in the western United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Diffenbaugh, Noah [Stanford University; White, Michael A [Utah State University (USU); Jones, Gregory V [Southern Oregon University, Ashland, OR; Ashfaq, Moetasim [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    Design and implementation of effective climate change adaptation activities requires quantitative assessment of the impacts that are likely to occur without adaptation, as well as the fraction of impact that can be avoided through each activity. Here we present a quantitative framework inspired by the greenhouse gas stabilization wedges of Pacala and Socolow. In our proposed framework, the damage avoided by each adaptation activity creates an 'adaptation wedge' relative to the loss that would occur without that adaptation activity. We use premium winegrape suitability in the western United States as an illustrative case study, focusing on the near-term period that covers the years 2000 39. We find that the projected warming over this period results in the loss of suitable winegrape area throughout much of California, including most counties in the high-value North Coast and Central Coast regions. However, in quantifying adaptation wedges for individual high-value counties, we find that a large adaptation wedge can be captured by increasing the severe heat tolerance, including elimination of the 50% loss projected by the end of the 2030 9 period in the North Coast region, and reduction of the projected loss in the Central Coast region from 30% to less than 15%. Increased severe heat tolerance can capture an even larger adaptation wedge in the Pacific Northwest, including conversion of a projected loss of more than 30% in the Columbia Valley region of Washington to a projected gain of more than 150%. We also find that warming projected over the near-term decades has the potential to alter the quality of winegrapes produced in the western US, and we discuss potential actions that could create adaptation wedges given these potential changes in quality. While the present effort represents an initial exploration of one aspect of one industry, the climate adaptation wedge framework could be used to quantitatively evaluate the opportunities and limits of climate

  10. National strategy for climate change adaptation; Strategie nationale d'adaptation au changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    This book expresses the French State's view on the way to deal with the issue of climate change adaptation. After having recalled the ineluctability of some observed changes, the actors involved in this adaptation, and some guideline principles to implement adaptation, a first chapter describes the context: international mobilization, climate data evolution, definition of new criteria and critical thresholds, relationship between adaptation, alleviation and sustainable development, tensions between long and short terms. It discusses the objectives: public security and health, alleviation of inequalities with respect to risks, cost reduction, natural heritage preservation. Nine strategic axes are then identified: to develop knowledge, to strengthen the survey system, to inform, to educate and to make all actors aware, to promote a territory-based approach, to finance adaptation actions, to use regulatory and law instruments, to support voluntary approaches and the dialogue with private actors, to take the overseas peculiarity into account, and to contribute to international exchanges. The next chapters are respectively dealing with transverse approaches (water, risk prevention, health, and biodiversity), sector-based insights (agriculture, energy and industry, transports, building and housing, tourism, banks and insurance companies), medium-based approach (cities, littoral and seas, mountain, forest). The last part deals with the implementation issue

  11. The genetic architecture of climatic adaptation of tropical cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto-Neto, Laercio R; Reverter, Antonio; Prayaga, Kishore C; Chan, Eva K F; Johnston, David J; Hawken, Rachel J; Fordyce, Geoffry; Garcia, Jose Fernando; Sonstegard, Tad S; Bolormaa, Sunduimijid; Goddard, Michael E; Burrow, Heather M; Henshall, John M; Lehnert, Sigrid A; Barendse, William

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation of global food systems to climate change is essential to feed the world. Tropical cattle production, a mainstay of profitability for farmers in the developing world, is dominated by heat, lack of water, poor quality feedstuffs, parasites, and tropical diseases. In these systems European cattle suffer significant stock loss, and the cross breeding of taurine x indicine cattle is unpredictable due to the dilution of adaptation to heat and tropical diseases. We explored the genetic architecture of ten traits of tropical cattle production using genome wide association studies of 4,662 animals varying from 0% to 100% indicine. We show that nine of the ten have genetic architectures that include genes of major effect, and in one case, a single location that accounted for more than 71% of the genetic variation. One genetic region in particular had effects on parasite resistance, yearling weight, body condition score, coat colour and penile sheath score. This region, extending 20 Mb on BTA5, appeared to be under genetic selection possibly through maintenance of haplotypes by breeders. We found that the amount of genetic variation and the genetic correlations between traits did not depend upon the degree of indicine content in the animals. Climate change is expected to expand some conditions of the tropics to more temperate environments, which may impact negatively on global livestock health and production. Our results point to several important genes that have large effects on adaptation that could be introduced into more temperate cattle without detrimental effects on productivity. PMID:25419663

  12. Climate change in semi-arid Malawi: Perceptions, adaptation strategies and water governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam K. Joshua

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and variability are a threat to sustainable agricultural production in semi-arid areas of Malawi. Overdependence on subsistence rain-fed agriculture in these areas calls for the identification of sustainable adaptation strategies. A study was therefore conducted in Chikwawa, a semi-arid district in southern Malawi, to: (1 assess community’s perception of a changing climate against empirical evidence, (2 determine their local adaptive measures, (3 evaluate the potential of irrigated agriculture as an adaptive measure in household food security and (4 challenges over access to available water resources. The study employed focus group discussions and key informant interviews to assess people’s perceptions of climate change and variability and their desired interventions. To validate the people’s perceptions, rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2010 were analysed. A participatory complete randomised experimental design in both rain-fed and dry season–irrigated conditions was conducted to assess a maize cropping system that would improve adaptation. The study established persistent declining yields from rain-fed production in part because of perennial rainfall failure. In response, the community has shifted its focus to irrigation as an adaptation strategy, which has in turn triggered water conflicts in the community over the control of the resource. Water legislation however fails to adequately provide for rules governing sharing of water resources between various stakeholders. This article therefore recommends development of an appropriate institutional framework that forms a strong basis for equitable distribution of water for irrigation in areas most vulnerable to extreme climate events – including droughts and floods.Keywords: Food Security; Climate Change and Variability; Rainfall Variability; Irrigation; Water Resources; Governance Crisis

  13. A Model for Pre-Service Teachers' Climate Change Awareness and Willingness to Act for Pro-Climate Change Friendly Behavior: Adaptation of Awareness to Climate Change Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal, Burçkin; Alper, Umut; Özdem-Yilmaz, Yasemin; Öztürk, Nilay; Sönmez, Duygu

    2015-01-01

    Public awareness of the negative effects of climate change is vital since it leads to collective action for prevention and adaptation. However, investigations on to what extent people are aware of the climate change issue are rare in the literature. The present study reported the adaptation process of awareness to climate change questionnaire into…

  14. Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

  15. Getting Beyond First Base: Science-Society Communication for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, G. M.

    2010-12-01

    At a 2009 international workshop on transboundary climate and water issues, a former World Bank official and current academic mentioned that “crisis, risk and uncertainty” are the three words that motivate decision-makers to act. However, decade-scale climate variability and trend-driven climate changes are phenomena characterized by creeping onset, diffuse and non-synchronous impacts, and complexity. Thus, there is a balancing act to addressing the complexity of uncertainties, while adequately assessing risk, and keeping the potential for crisis in focus without creating a “Chicken Little” situation. This presentation examines translational science approaches to three stages in the continuum from initial communication to societal action: raising awareness, building capacity, and making progress toward action. We examine the roles of scientists, knowledge brokers, decision makers, and the general public in the context of climate services. Although there is no “one size fits all” science communication method, we argue that best practices require that scientists pay particular attention to cultural and political sensitivities associated with decision contexts. We give examples from seasonal forecast communication, drought planning, climate literacy and education needs assessments, and the nexus of climate adaptation planning and uncertainty. In general, we find that constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong links between (a) predictions, impacts and solutions and (b) global to regional to local spatial scales. Often building partnerships for moving science information from observations to knowledge to decisions requires discussion support, a concept borrowed from Australian colleagues, which describes a multi-faceted and undervalued aspect of moving forward in adaptation planning: clarifying plausible cascades of interactions leading to potential impacts. Discussion support also fosters

  16. Farmers' adaptation to climate change. The case of Morogoro, Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Below, Till Benjamin

    2012-07-01

    variability and change is an acceptable second-best option to analyze their response to future climate change. In order to fulfill the research objectives, quantitative and qualitative data were collected at the household and the village level. Morogoro Region, located in central-eastern Tanzania, was selected as the case study area because of its documented vulnerability to climate change and because results of this area were expected to be interesting in a broader perspective. Based on a critical review of literature from social science and development economics, a climate change response framework was developed and variables hypothesized to influence farmers' adaptation were identified. Furthermore, an index-based approach to measure farmers' adaptedness was developed, the activity-based adaptation index (AAI).The data was analyzed using factor analysis, multiple linear regression, descriptive statistical methods and qualitative content analysis. The econometric analysis was undertaken in two steps, first a multiple linear regression analysis with original predictor variables was conducted, which was followed by the combination of a factor analysis with a regression analysis based on latent variables. The empirical results are discussed in the context of theoretical concepts of adaptation and the sustainable livelihood approach. The results of this study indicate that farmers' adaptation to climate change is determined by four factors, namely the production potential of the area, the availability of productive inputs, the socio-economic status of the household, and farmers' social and financial capital. Both, the factor analysis and the regression analysis with original variables reveal a similar structure of these determinants, highlighting the stability of the results. Furthermore, this study identified 33 practices potentially suitable for adaptation to climate change and currently used among Morogoro's smallholder farmers. From a methodological

  17. What kind of leadership do we need for climate adaptation? A framework for analyzing leadership objectives, functions, and tasks in climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, S.; Stiller, S.J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the relevance of various leadership concepts for climate change adaptation. After defi ning four main leadership challenges which are derived from the key characteristics of climate adaptation issues, a review of modern leadership theories addressing these challenges is presented

  18. The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Sari Kovats, R.; Lotze, Heike K.; Mearns, Linda O.; Navarra, Antonio; Ojima, Dennis S.; Riahi, Keywan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Themessl, Matthias; Vincent, Katharine

    2016-09-01

    This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

  19. Impacts and adaptation for climate change in urban forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, M. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Changes to urban trees as a result of climate change were reviewed in order to aid urban forest managers in the development of adaptive climate change strategies. Various climate change models have predicted that winter and spring temperatures will increase. Higher amounts of precipitation are also anticipated. Higher temperatures will results in evapotranspiration, which will cause soil moisture levels to decline. Climatologists have also suggested that very hot days, winter storms and high rainfall events will increase in frequency. In addition, higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) will affect photosynthesis, with associated impacts on urban tree growth. Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons will allow insect populations to build up to higher levels, and warmer and dryer summers are likely to bring longer fire seasons and more severe fires. Urban trees under stress from drought and higher temperatures will be increasingly vulnerable to existing urban stressors such as air pollution and soil compaction. However, the ecological services provided by trees will become more valuable under future climate change regimes, particularly for shading and space cooling, as well as soil aeration and stabilization and the uptake of storm water. It was suggested that future tree growth may be enhanced on sites with adequate water and nutrients, but will probably decline in areas that are already marginal. It was recommended that urban forest managers assess the present vulnerability of trees to climate-related events in order to prepare for future change. Managers should also assess their capacity to implement various strategies through municipal and provincial partnerships. It was observed that decisions taken now about forest management will play out over several decades. It was concluded that maintaining a flexible and resilient urban forest management system is the best defence, as specific climate change impacts cannot be predicted. 18 refs., 4

  20. Watershed Conservation, Groundwater Management, and Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roumasset, J.; Burnett, K.; Wada, C.

    2009-12-01

    Sustainability science is transdisciplinary, organizing research to deliver meaningful and practical contributions to critical issues of resource management. As yet, however, sustainability science has not been integrated with the policy sciences. We provide a step towards integration by providing an integrated model of optimal groundwater management and investment in watershed conservation. The joint optimization problem is solved under alternative forecasts of the changing rainfall distribution for the Koolau Watershed in Oahu, Hawaii. Optimal groundwater management is solved using a simplified one-dimensional model of the groundwater aquifer for analytical tractability. For a constant aquifer recharge, the model solves for the optimal trajectories of water extraction up to the desalination steady state and an incentive compatible pricing scheme. The Koolau Watershed is currently being degraded, however, by invasive plants such as Miconia calvescens and feral animals, especially wild pigs. Runoff and erosion have increased and groundwater recharge is at risk. The Koolau Partnership, a coalition of private owners, the State Department of Land and Natural Resources have proposed a $5 million (present value) conservation plan that promises to halt further losses of recharge. We compare this to the enhanced present value of the aquifer, showing the benefits are an order of magnitude greater than the costs. If conservation is done in the absence of efficient groundwater management, however, more than 40% of the potential benefits would be wasted by under-pricing and overconsumption. We require an estimate of the rainfall-generating distribution and how that distribution is changing over time. We obtain these from statistical downsizing of IPCC climate models. Despite the finding that global warming will increase precipitation for most of the world, the opposite is forecast for Hawaii. A University of Hawaii study finds that the most likely precipitation scenario is a

  1. A National Climate Change Adaptation Network for Protecting Water Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, A.; Sauchyn, D.; Byrne, J. M.

    2009-12-01

    Water security and resource-dependent community-survival are being increasingly challenged as a consequence of climate change, and it is urgent that we plan now for the security of our water supplies which support our lives and livelihoods. However, the range of impacts of climate change on water availability, and the consequent environmental and human adaptations that are required, is so complex and serious that it will take the combined work of natural, health and social scientists working with industries and communities to solve them. Networks are needed that will identify crucial water issues under climate change at a range of scales in order to provide regionally-sensitive, solutions-oriented research and adaptation. We suggest national and supra-national water availability and community sustainability issues must be addressed by multidisciplinary research and adaptation networks. The work must be driven by a bottom-up research paradigm — science in the service of community and governance. We suggest that interdisciplinary teams of researchers, in partnership with community decision makers and local industries, are the best means to develop solutions as communities attempt to address future water demands, protect their homes from infrastructure damage, and meet their food, drinking water, and other essential resource requirements. The intention is to cover: the impact of climate change on Canadian natural resources, both marine and terrestrial; issues of long-term sustainability and resilience in human communities and the environments in which they are embedded; the making and moving of knowledge, be that between members of Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities, researchers of different disciplines, communities, industry, policymakers and the academy and the crucial involvement of the various orders of government in the response to water problems, under conditions of heightened uncertainty. Such an adaptation network must include a national

  2. Do Regional Disparities in Research on Climate and Water Influence Adaptive Capacity?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiparsky, M.; Brooks, C. [Energy and Resources Group, University of California, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720-3050 (United States); Gleick, P.H. [Pacific Institute, 654 13th Street, Oakland, CA, 94612 (United States)

    2006-08-15

    As part of a long-term effort to both improve access to information on climate change and freshwater resources, and to understand the state of the science, we compiled an electronic bibliography of scientific literature in that area. We analyzed the distribution of information on climatic impacts on freshwater resources, with an emphasis on differences between developed and developing regions as well as differences in the types and focus of research carried out among regions. There has been more research overall in developed countries than in the developing world. Proportionally more of the available research on natural and human systems pertains to developed regions, while most of the analysis done in developing countries is limited to higher-level climatology and hydrology. We argue that scientific information and understanding are important elements of the ability to adapt to potential climatic changes. The distribution of the scientific literature in our database suggests that the types of science most directly relevant to adaptive capacity are skewed towards developed countries, which may exacerbate existing disparities in adaptive capacity, and ultimately worsen the consequences of climatic impacts in developing countries.

  3. Can Payments for Ecosystem Services Contribute to Adaptation to Climate Change? Insights from a Watershed in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel van de Sand

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents new challenges for the management of social-ecological systems and the ecosystem services they provide. Although the instrument of payments for ecosystem services (PES has emerged as a promising tool to safeguard or enhance the provision of ecosystem services (ES, little attention has been paid to the potential role of PES in climate change adaptation. As an external stressor climate change has an impact on the social-ecological system in which PES takes place, including the various actors taking part in the PES scheme. Following a short description of the conceptual link between PES and adaptation to climate change, we provide practical insights into the relationship between PES and adaptation to climate change by presenting results from a case study of a rural watershed in Kenya. Drawing upon the results of a participatory vulnerability assessment among potential ecosystem service providers in Sasumua watershed north of Nairobi, we show that PES can play a role in enhancing adaptation to climate change by influencing certain elements of adaptive capacity and incentivizing adaptation measures. In addition, trade-offs and synergies between proposed measures under PES and adaptation to climate change are identified. Results show that although it may not be possible to establish PES schemes based on water utilities as the sole source of financing, embedding PES in a wider adaptation framework creates an opportunity for the development of watershed PES schemes in Africa and ensures their sustainability. We conclude that there is a need to embed PES in a wider institutional framework and that extra financial resources are needed to foster greater integration between PES and adaptation to climate change. This can be achieved through scaling up PES by bringing in other buyers and additional ecosystem services. PES can achieve important coadaptation benefits, but for more effective adaptation outcomes it needs to be combined

  4. Adaptation strategies to climate variability and change and its limitations to smallholder farmers. A literature search

    OpenAIRE

    Frank Phillipo; Magreth Bushesha; Zebedayo S. K. Mvena

    2015-01-01

    In sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge on adaptation strategies to climate variability and change are scattered and fragmented due to lack of standpoints adaptation framework. This paper intends to analyse differences in adaptation strategies across agro-ecological zones, and finding out factors dictating adaptation to climate variability and change to smallholder farmers. The paper is based on documentary review methodology in which journals and books on adaptation were used as the main sources of...

  5. Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colloff, Matthew; Lavorel, Sandra; Wise, Russell M; Dunlop, Michael; Overton, Ian C; Williams, Kristen J

    2016-06-01

    Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can

  6. Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colloff, Matthew; Lavorel, Sandra; Wise, Russell M; Dunlop, Michael; Overton, Ian C; Williams, Kristen J

    2016-06-01

    Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can

  7. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J.J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J.C.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for loca

  8. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation. A case study of the role of homeowners in the process of climate change adaptation in Copenhagen

    OpenAIRE

    Nina Baron; Lars Kjerulf Petersen

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete ‘Sustainable Urban Drainages System’ (SUDS) project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study, thereby investigating multiple understandings of urban climate change adaptation. Several different perspectives are identified with regard to what are and what will become the main clim...

  9. Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rippke, Ulrike; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Jarvis, Andy; Vermeulen, Sonja J.; Parker, Louis; Mer, Flora; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Challinor, Andrew J.; Howden, Mark

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is projected to constitute a significant threat to food security if no adaptation actions are taken. Transformation of agricultural systems, for example switching crop types or moving out of agriculture, is projected to be necessary in some cases. However, little attention has been paid to the timing of these transformations. Here, we develop a temporal uncertainty framework using the CMIP5 ensemble to assess when and where cultivation of key crops in sub-Saharan Africa becomes unviable. We report potential transformational changes for all major crops during the twenty-first century, as climates shift and areas become unsuitable. For most crops, however, transformation is limited to small pockets (banana is transformation more widespread (~30% area for maize and banana, 60% for beans). We envisage three overlapping adaptation phases to enable projected transformational changes: an incremental adaptation phase focused on improvements to crops and management, a preparatory phase that establishes appropriate policies and enabling environments, and a transformational adaptation phase in which farmers substitute crops, explore alternative livelihoods strategies, or relocate. To best align policies with production triggers for no-regret actions, monitoring capacities to track farming systems as well as climate are needed.

  10. Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

    2016-03-01

    Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to

  11. Estimating the limits of adaptation from historical behaviour: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in a number of economic sectors [1]. The main analysis presents projections of climate impacts with an assumption of "no adaptation". Yet, historically, when the climate imposed an economic cost upon society, adaptive responses were taken to minimise these costs. These adaptive behaviours, both autonomous and planned, can be expected to occur as climate impacts increase in the future. To understand the extent to which adaptation might decrease some of the worst impacts of climate change, we empirically estimate adaptive responses. We do this in three sectors considered in the analysis - crop yield, crime, and mortality - and estimate adaptive capacity in two steps. First, looking at changes in climate impacts through time, we identify a historical rate of adaptation. Second, spatial differences in climate impacts are then used to stratify regions into more adapted or less adapted based on climate averages. As these averages change across counties in the US, we allow each to become more adapted at the rate identified in step one. We are then able to estimate the residual damages, assuming that only the historical adaptive behaviours have taken place (fig 1). Importantly, we are unable to estimate any costs associated with these adaptations, nor are we able to estimate more novel (for example, new technological discoveries) or more disruptive (for example, migration) adaptive behaviours. However, an important insight is that historical adaptive behaviours may not be capable of reducing the worst impacts of climate change. The persistence of impacts in even the most exposed areas indicates that there are non-trivial costs associated with adaptation that will need to be met from other sources or through novel behavioural changes. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate

  12. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas. PMID:26974571

  13. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas.

  14. Olive cultivars adaptability in Southern Italy in present and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riccardi, M.; Alfieri, S.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Menenti, M.; De Lorenzi, F.

    2012-04-01

    The intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops is very significant and likely to provide the single major opportunity to cope with the effects of the changing climate on agricultural ecosystems. Assessment of adaptive capacity must rely on quantitative descriptions of plant responses to environmental factors (e.g. soil water availability, temperature). Moreover climate scenario needs to be downscaled to the spatial scale relevant to crop and farm management. Distributed models of crop response to environmental forcing might be used for this purpose, but severely constrained by the very scarce knowledge on variety-specific values of model parameters, thus limiting the potential exploitation of intra-specific biodiversity towards adaptation. We have developed an approach towards this objective that relies on two complementary elements: a)a distributed model of the soil plant atmosphere system to downscale climate scenarios to landscape units, where generic model parameters for each species are used; b)a data base on climatic requirements of as many varieties as feasible for each species relevant to the agricultural production system of a given region. By means of this approach, the adaptability of some olive cultivars was evaluated in a composite (hills and plains) area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, Campania Region, about 20.000 ha). The yearly average temperature is 22.5 °C and rainfall ranges between 600 and 900 mm. Two different climate scenarios were considered: current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios at low spatial resolution were generated with general circulation models (AOGCM) and down-scaled by means of a statistical model (Tomozeiu et al., 2007). The climate was represented by daily observations of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km; 50 realizations were used for future climate. The soil water regime of 45 soil units was described for

  15. Unintended outcomes of farmers’ adaptation to climate variability: deforestation and conservation in Calakmul and Maya biosphere reserves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Rodriguez-Solorzano

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Minimizing the impact of climate change on farmer livelihoods is crucial, but adaptation efforts may have unintended consequences for ecosystems, with potential impacts on farmers' welfare. Unintended outcomes of climate adaptation strategies have been widely discussed, however, empirical exploration has been neglected. Grounded in scholarship on climate adaptation, environmental governance, social–ecological systems, and land-use change, this paper studies whether farmers’ climate adaptation contributes to deforestation or forest conservation. The paper draws on interviews with 353 farmers from 46 communities in Calakmul Biosphere Reserve in Mexico and Maya Biosphere Reserve in Guatemala. Farmers in the area of study have implemented adaptation strategies that people around the world have used for centuries, including migration, diversification, savings, and pooling. The findings show that climate adaptation can increase deforestation or support forest conservation depending on the type of adaptation strategy farmers implement. Saving, based on cattle ranching, is a deforestation-driving strategy. The choice of this strategy is influenced by distance to the commercial and administrative center and cash benefits from the forest. Deforestation can have a negative impact on farmers’ welfare, as well as harm biodiversity and contribute to increased climate change. Thus, deforestation-driving adaptation strategies may be ineffective. However, diversification, based on off-farm jobs and operating provision shops, is a conservation-driving strategy influenced by distance as well as by family size. Farmers who choose diversification to adapt may contribute to a virtuous circle in which livelihood improvement in the short term leads to enhanced social–ecological resilience in the longer term. The need for farmers to implement adaptation strategies thus represents great risk but also opportunities.

  16. Developing services for climate impact and adaptation baseline information and methodologies for the Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, C.

    2012-04-01

    Impacts of climate change are observed and projected across a range of ecosystems and economic sectors, and mountain regions thereby rank among the hotspots of climate change. The Andes are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, not only due to fragile ecosystems but also due to the high vulnerability of the population. Natural resources such as water systems play a critical role and are observed and projected to be seriously affected. Adaptation to climate change impacts is therefore crucial to contain the negative effects on the population. Adaptation projects require information on the climate and affected socio-environmental systems. There is, however, generally a lack of methodological guidelines how to generate the necessary scientific information and how to communicate to implementing governmental and non-governmental institutions. This is particularly important in view of the international funds for adaptation such as the Green Climate Fund established and set into process at the UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties in Cancun 2010 and Durban 2011. To facilitate this process international and regional organizations (World Bank and Andean Community) and a consortium of research institutions have joined forces to develop and define comprehensive methodologies for baseline and climate change impact assessments for the Andes, with an application potential to other mountain regions (AndesPlus project). Considered are the climatological baseline of a region, and the assessment of trends based on ground meteorological stations, reanalysis data, and satellite information. A challenge is the scarcity of climate information in the Andes, and the complex climatology of the mountain terrain. A climate data platform has been developed for the southern Peruvian Andes and is a key element for climate data service and exchange. Water resources are among the key livelihood components for the Andean population, and local and national economy, in particular for

  17. Use of a crop climate modeling system to evaluate climate change adaptation practices: maize yield in East Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, N. J.; Alagarswamy, G.; Andresen, J.; Olson, J.; Thornton, P.

    2013-12-01

    /ha in many areas. The simulated yield changes in the future were both spatially explicit and dependent on the GCM used. The effectiveness of agronomic practices was highly varied across the region depending on soil type, agro-ecological zone and projected climate change. The results have critical implications for agronomic research and policy. The study challenges using a ';one size fits all' approach in the identification of potential adaptation strategies. The goal is to use models to target local, optimized solutions as part of the broader need for impact assessments at coarser scales.

  18. Future tendencies of climate indicators important for adaptation and mitigation strategies in forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galos, Borbala; Hänsler, Andreas; Gulyas, Krisztina; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts in the forestry sector, especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where forests are vulnerable and sensitive to the increasing probability and severity of climatic extremes, especially to droughts. For providing information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options for the Carpathian basin, a GIS-supported Decision Support System is under development. This study focuses on the future tendencies of climate indicators that determine the distribution, growth, health status and production of forests as well as the potential pests and diseases. For the analyses the climate database of the Decision Support System has been applied, which contains daily time series for precipitation and temperature means and extremes as well as derived climate indices for 1961-2100. For the future time period, simulation results of 12 regional climate models are included (www.ensembles-eu.org) based on the A1B emission scenario. The main results can be summarized as follows: · The projected change of the climate indices (e.g. total number of hot days, frost days, dry days, consecutive dry periods) and forestry indices (e.g. Ellenberg climate quotient, Forestry aridity index; Tolerance index for beech) indicates the warming and drying of the growing season towards the end of the 21st century. These can have severe consequences on the ecosystem services of forests. · The climatic suitable area of the native tree species is projected to move northwards and upwards in the mountains, respectively. For beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) this shift would mean the drastic shrink of the distribution area in the analyzed region. · The characteristic climate conditions that are expected in the Carpathian basin in the second half of the century, are now located southeastern from the case study region. In this way, the potential future provenance regions can be determined. Results provide input for the climate

  19. Regional aspects of climate change impacts and related adaptation options in European agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eitzinger, J.

    2009-09-01

    Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man' activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results are useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variablitiy much better. Therefore the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org) was designed to focus on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientifc studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilites and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat is the main factor having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the mediterranean region, but also in the Central and Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. An important aspect is also that there are increasing regional differences in the crop production potential in Europe due to climate change and that

  20. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Jan C Semenza; Ploubidis, George B; George, Linda A

    2011-01-01

    Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate...

  1. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Semenza, JC; Ploubidis, GB; George, LA

    2011-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivat...

  2. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Ploubidis George B; Semenza Jan C; George Linda A

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to...

  3. Health impacts of climate change in the Solomon Islands: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-09-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands' responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

  4. Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Solomon Islands: An Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-01-01

    The Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable to the environmental changes wrought by global climate change such as sea level rise, more frequent and intense extreme weather events and increasing temperatures. The potential biophysical changes likely to affect these countries have been identified and it is important that consideration be given to the implications of these changes on the health of their citizens. The potential health impacts of climatic changes on the population of the Solomon Islands were assessed through the use of a Health Impact Assessment framework. The process used a collaborative and consultative approach with local experts to identify the impacts to health that could arise from local environmental changes, considered the risks associated with these and proposed appropriate potential adaptive responses. Participants included knowledgeable representatives from the biophysical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food sectors. The risk assessments considered both the likelihood and consequences of the health impacts occurring using a qualitative process. To mitigate the adverse effects of the health impacts, an extensive range of potential adaptation strategies were developed. The overall process provided an approach that could be used for further assessments as well as an extensive range of responses which could be used by sectors and to assist future decision making associated with the Solomon Islands’ responses to climate change. PMID:25168977

  5. Climate-induced community relocations: using integrated social-ecological assessments to foster adaptation and resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Bronen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather events coupled with sea level rise and erosion will cause coastal and riverine areas where people live and maintain livelihoods to disappear permanently. Adaptation to these environmental changes, including the permanent relocation of millions of people, requires new governance tools. In the USA, local governments, often with state-level and national-level support, will be primarily responsible for protecting residents from climate-change impacts and implementing policies needed to protect their welfare. Government agencies have a variety of tools to facilitate protection in place and managed coastal retreat but have very limited tools to facilitate community relocation. In addition, no institutional mechanism currently exists to determine whether and when preventive relocation needs to occur to protect people from climate change impacts. Based on research involving four Alaska Native communities threatened by climate-induced environmental impacts, I propose the design and implementation of an adaptive governance framework to respond to the need to relocate populations. In this context, adaptive governance means the ability of institutions to dynamically respond to climate change impacts. A component of this adaptive governance framework is a social-ecological monitoring and assessment tool that can facilitate collaborative knowledge production by community residents and governance institutions to guide sustainable adaptation strategies and determine whether and when relocation needs to occur. The framework, including the monitoring and assessment tool, has not been systematically tested. However, the potential use of this tool is discussed by drawing on empirical examples of Alaskan communities faced with accelerating rates of erosion.

  6. Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hargreaves, Anna; Bailey, Susan; Laird, Robert

    2015-01-01

    Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low-latitude/low-elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution...... at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate-induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient....... We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual-based model. We compare range-wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs...

  7. Climate change and groundwater: India's opportunities for mitigation and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Tushaar

    2009-07-01

    For millennia, India used surface storage and gravity flow to water crops. During the last 40 years, however, India has witnessed a decline in gravity-flow irrigation and the rise of a booming 'water-scavenging' irrigation economy through millions of small, private tubewells. For India, groundwater has become at once critical and threatened. Climate change will act as a force multiplier; it will enhance groundwater's criticality for drought-proofing agriculture and simultaneously multiply the threat to the resource. Groundwater pumping with electricity and diesel also accounts for an estimated 16-25 million mt of carbon emissions, 4-6% of India's total. From a climate change point of view, India's groundwater hotspots are western and peninsular India. These are critical for climate change mitigation as well as adaptation. To achieve both, India needs to make a transition from surface storage to 'managed aquifer storage' as the center pin of its water strategy with proactive demand- and supply-side management components. In doing this, India needs to learn intelligently from the experience of countries like Australia and the United States that have long experience in managed aquifer recharge.

  8. Ranking the adaptive capacity of nations to climate change when socio-political goals are explicit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haddad, B.M. [University of California, Santa Cruz, CA (United States)

    2005-07-01

    The typical categories for measuring national adaptive capacity to climate change include a nation's wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and management capabilities. Resulting rankings predictably mirror more general rankings of economic development, such as the Human Development Index. This approach is incomplete since it does not consider the normative or motivational context of adaptation. For what purpose or toward what goal does a nation aspire, and in that context, what is its adaptive capacity? This paper posits 11 possible national socio-political goals that fall into the three categories of teleological legitimacy, procedural legitimacy, and norm-based decision rules. A model that sorts nations in terms of adaptive capacity based on national socio-political aspirations is presented. While the aspiration of maximizing summed utility matches typical existing rankings, alternative aspirations, including contractarian liberalism, technocratic management, and dictatorial/religious rule alter the rankings. An example describes how this research can potentially inform how priorities are set for international assistance for climate change adaptation. (author)

  9. Ranking the adaptive capacity of nations to climate change when socio-political goals are explicit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The typical categories for measuring national adaptive capacity to climate change include a nation's wealth, technology, education, information, skills, infrastructure, access to resources, and management capabilities. Resulting rankings predictably mirror more general rankings of economic development, such as the Human Development Index. This approach is incomplete since it does not consider the normative or motivational context of adaptation. For what purpose or toward what goal does a nation aspire, and in that context, what is its adaptive capacity? This paper posits 11 possible national socio-political goals that fall into the three categories of teleological legitimacy, procedural legitimacy, and norm-based decision rules. A model that sorts nations in terms of adaptive capacity based on national socio-political aspirations is presented. While the aspiration of maximizing summed utility matches typical existing rankings, alternative aspirations, including contractarian liberalism, technocratic management, and dictatorial/religious rule alter the rankings. An example describes how this research can potentially inform how priorities are set for international assistance for climate change adaptation. (author)

  10. Exploring Opportunities for Promoting Synergies between Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Forest Carbon Initiatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugene L. Chia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in designing and implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation (M + A in synergy in the forest and land use sectors. However, there is limited knowledge on how the planning and promotion of synergies between M + A can be operationalized in the current efforts to mitigate climate change through forest carbon. This paper contributes to fill this knowledge gap by exploring ways of planning and promoting M + A synergy outcomes in forest carbon initiatives. It examines eight guidelines that are widely used in designing and implementing forest carbon initiatives. Four guiding principles with a number of criteria that are relevant for planning synergy outcomes in forest carbon activities are proposed. The guidelines for developing forest carbon initiatives need to demonstrate that (1 the health of forest ecosystems is maintained or enhanced; (2 the adaptive capacity of forest-dependent communities is ensured; (3 carbon and adaptation benefits are monitored and verified; and (4 adaptation outcomes are anticipated and planned in forest carbon initiatives. The forest carbon project development guidelines can encourage the integration of adaptation in forest carbon initiatives. However, their current efforts guiding projects and programs to deliver biodiversity and environmental benefits, ecosystem services, and socioeconomic benefits are not considered explicitly as efforts towards enhancing adaptation. An approach for incentivizing and motivating project developers, guideline setters, and offset buyers is imperative in order to enable existing guidelines to make clear contributions to adaptation goals. We highlight and discuss potential ways of incentivizing and motivating the explicit planning and promotion of adaptation outcomes in forest carbon initiatives.

  11. A Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process for Low-Lying, Communities Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristi Tatebe

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available While the province of British Columbia (BC, Canada, provides guidelines for flood risk management, it is local governments’ responsibility to delineate their own flood vulnerability, assess their risk, and integrate these with planning policies to implement adaptive action. However, barriers such as the lack of locally specific data and public perceptions about adaptation options mean that local governments must address the need for adaptation planning within a context of scientific uncertainty, while building public support for difficult choices on flood-related climate policy and action. This research demonstrates a process to model, visualize and evaluate potential flood impacts and adaptation options for the community of Delta, in Metro Vancouver, across economic, social and environmental perspectives. Visualizations in 2D and 3D, based on hydrological modeling of breach events for existing dike infrastructure, future sea level rise and storm surges, are generated collaboratively, together with future adaptation scenarios assessed against quantitative and qualitative indicators. This ‘visioning package’ is being used with staff and a citizens’ Working Group to assess the performance, policy implications and social acceptability of the adaptation strategies. Recommendations based on the experience of the initiative are provided that can facilitate sustainable future adaptation actions and decision-making in Delta and other jurisdictions.

  12. 77 FR 2996 - National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-20

    ... can help limit the damage climate change causes to our natural resources and communities, and will... natural systems provide, in a changing climate. In addition to this request for written comments, several..., Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy (Strategy). The adverse impacts of climate...

  13. Climate variability and change in Ethiopia : exploring impacts and adaptation options for cereal production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassie, B.T.

    2014-01-01

    Key words: Climate change, Adaptation, Crop modelling, Uncertainty, Maize (Zea mays), Central Rift Valley. Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia have been facing severe climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall and severe droughts that negativelyaffect their livelihoods.Anticipated

  14. Challenges and Opportunities to Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Development Among Tanzanian Rural Communities Challenges and Opportunities to Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Development Among Tanzanian Rural Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther W. Dungumaro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In more recent years climate change impacts have been obvious around the globe. This non-contentious reality has resulted in various global initiatives to reduce climate change impacts. However, differences exist in opportunities and capacity to adaptation. This paper, descriptive in nature, draws heavily from literature and also uses 2002 Tanzanian population and housing census to identify and discuss major challenges and opportunities to climate change adaptation and sustainable development in rural areas of Tanzania. Two groups are of focus; pastoralist herders and smallholder farmers. Analysis indicates that opportunities to climate change adaptation among rural community include their knowledge and experience. Challenges are centered on the pervasive poverty, rapid population increase and high illiteracy rates. Forces beyond their control including funds and governance also present definite limits to climate change adaptation. The paper suggests among others, the effective implementation of two top policies: education and social security funding.In more recent years climate change impacts have been obvious around the globe. This non-contentious reality has resulted in various global initiatives to reduce climate change impacts. However, differences exist in opportunities and capacity to adaptation. This paper, descriptive in nature, draws heavily from literature and also uses 2002 Tanzanian population and housing census to identify and discuss major challenges and opportunities to climate change adaptation and sustainable development in rural areas of Tanzania. Two groups are of focus; pastoralist herders and smallholder farmers. Analysis indicates that opportunities to climate change adaptation among rural community include their knowledge and experience. Challenges are centered on the pervasive poverty, rapid population increase and high illiteracy rates. Forces beyond their control including funds and governance also present definite

  15. The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuessler, J.S.; Gassmann, F. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

  16. Structural and psycho-social limits to climate change adaptation in the great barrier reef region

    OpenAIRE

    Louisa S. Evans; Hicks, Christina C.; W Neil Adger; Jon Barnett; Allison L Perry; Pedro Fidelman; Renae Tobin

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation, as a strategy to respond to climate change, has limits: there are conditions under which adaptation strategies fail to alleviate impacts from climate change. Research has primarily focused on identifying absolute bio-physical limits. This paper contributes empirical insight to an emerging literature on the social limits to adaptation. Such limits arise from the ways in which societies perceive, experience and respond to climate change. Using qualitative data from multi-stakeholder...

  17. Climate change and adaptation of small-scale cattle and sheep farmers

    OpenAIRE

    Mandleni, B.; Anim, F.D.K.

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to investigate the factors that affected the decision of small-scale farmers who kept cattle and sheep on whether to adapt or not to climate changes. The Binary Logistic Regression model was used to investigate farmers’ decision. The results implied that a large number of socio-economic variables affected the decision of farmers on adaptation to climate changes. The study concluded that the most significant factors affecting climate change and adaptation w...

  18. How climate compatible are livelihood adaptation strategies and development programs in rural Indonesia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.M. Wise

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Achieving climate compatible development (CCD is a necessity in developing countries, but there are few examples of requisite planning processes, or manifestations of CCD. This paper presents a multi-stakeholder, participatory planning process designed to screen and prioritise rural livelihood adaptation strategies against nine CCD criteria. The process also integrated three principles of adaptation pathways: interventions should be (1 ‘no regrets’ and maintain reversibility to avoid mal-adaptation; (2 address both proximate and underlying systemic drivers of community vulnerability; and (3 linked across spatial scales and jurisdictional levels to promote coordination. Using examples of two rural sub-districts in Indonesia, we demonstrate the process and resulting CCD strategies. Priority strategies varied between the sub-districts but all reflected standard development interventions: water management, intensification or diversification of agriculture and aquaculture, education, health, food security and skills-building for communities. Strategies delivered co-benefits for human development and ecosystem services and hence adaptive capacity, but greenhouse mitigation co-benefits were less significant. Actions to deliver the strategies’ objectives were screened for reversibility, and a minority were potentially mal-adaptive (i.e. path dependent, disproportionately burdening the most vulnerable, reducing incentives to adapt, or increasing greenhouse gas emissions yet highly feasible. These related to infrastructure, which paradoxically is necessary to deliver ‘soft’ adaptation benefits (i.e. road access to health services. Only a small minority of transformative strategies addressed the systemic (i.e. institutional and political drivers of vulnerability. Strategies were well-matched by development programs, suggesting that current interventions mirror CCD. However, development programs tackled fewer systemic drivers, were poorly

  19. Climate Change Adaptation: The case of the Coffee Sector in Nicaragua

    OpenAIRE

    Zuluaga, Victor; Labarta, Ricardo; Läderach, Peter

    2015-01-01

    This article studies Nicaraguan coffee growers’ perceptions on long term changes in climate, the adaptation strategies implemented and its determinants. Using a household level sample, this study estimates probabilistic models where climate change adaptation is explained by household and farm characteristics, perceptions about changes in climate, measurement of exposure to climate change and geographical fixed effects. Results suggest that household age and years of education, number of house...

  20. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J. J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.

    2015-10-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.

  1. Climate vs. soil factors in local adaptation of two common plant species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Macel, M.; Lawson, C.S.; Mortimer, S.R.; Smilauerova, M.; Bischoff, A.; Crémieux, L.; Dolezal, J.; Edwards, A.R.; Lanta, V.; Bezemer, T.M.; Putten, van der W.H.; Igual, J.M.; Rodriguez-Barrueco, C.; Müller-Schärer, H.; Steinger, T.

    2007-01-01

    Evolutionary theory suggests that divergent natural selection in heterogeneous environments can result in locally adapted plant genotypes. To understand local adaptation it is important to study the ecological factors responsible for divergent selection. At a continental scale, variation in climate

  2. Water resources transfers through southern African food trade: resource efficiency and climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, Carole; Conway, Declan

    2015-04-01

    The connections between climate and the water-food nexus are strong and economically significant in southern Africa, yet the role of observed climate variability as a driver of production fluctuations is poorly understood. In addition, as regional collaboration strengthens through the SADC (Southern Africa Development Community) and trade with other regions increases, it is important to understand both how climate variability affects productivity and how intra- and extra-regional trade can contribute to the region's capacity to deal with climate-related productivity shocks. We use international food trade data (FAOSTAT) and a global hydrological model (H08) to quantify the water resources embedded in international food trade across southern Africa and with the rest of the world, from 1986-2011. We analyze the impacts of socio-economic, political and climatic changes on agricultural trade and embedded water resources during that period. In particular, the effects of climate variability on trade flows and crop yields are estimated, to provide insights on the potential of trade as a collaborative adaptation mechanism.

  3. Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

    2013-12-01

    Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of a waterborne infectious disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of northern India. A conceptual framework is presented for climate exposure response relationships based on studies from different countries, as empirical studies and appropriate epidemiological data sets for India are lacking. Four climate variables are included: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. Applying the conceptual framework to the latest regional climate projections for northern India shows increases between present and future (2040s), varying spatially from no change to an increase of 21% in diarrhoea incidences, with 13.1% increase on average for the Ganges basin. We discuss three types of measures against diarrhoeal disease: reactive actions, preventive actions and national policy options. Preventive actions have the potential to counterbalance this expected increase. However, given the limited progress in reducing incidences over the past decade consorted actions and effective implementation and integration of existing policies are needed.

  4. Climate change adaptation and forests in South Asia: Policy for multiple stakeholders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deshingkar, P.

    1997-12-31

    Moving from a general understanding of the potential dangers of climate change to real policy and investment requires changes in priorities at the level of government as well as the individual. Information should be disseminated through regional technical co-operation as well as improved communication between relevant institutions within countries. Besides fulfilling scientific and economic criteria for sustainability, forest adaption strategies in South asian countries should aim to be participatory and low cost. In the short term, maximizing the utility of existing institutions and skills may be more practical. The removal of market distortions will also enhance adaptive capacity. Continued research and technological innovation must accompany efforts to change management practices. The immediate priority for donor assistance in this area is to conduct vulnerability assessments, evaluate the constraints and develop a menu of adaption options based on multi criteria analysis of different objectives

  5. Climate Adaptation Capacity for Conventional Drinking Water Treatment Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, A.; Goodrich, J.; Yang, J.

    2013-12-01

    Water supplies are vulnerable to a host of climate- and weather-related stressors such as droughts, intense storms/flooding, snowpack depletion, sea level changes, and consequences from fires, landslides, and excessive heat or cold. Surface water resources (lakes, reservoirs, rivers, and streams) are especially susceptible to weather-induced changes in water availability and quality. The risks to groundwater systems may also be significant. Typically, water treatment facilities are designed with an underlying assumption that water quality from a given source is relatively predictable based on historical data. However, increasing evidence of the lack of stationarity is raising questions about the validity of traditional design assumptions, particularly since the service life of many facilities can exceed fifty years. Given that there are over 150,000 public water systems in the US that deliver drinking water to over 300 million people every day, it is important to evaluate the capacity for adapting to the impacts of a changing climate. Climate and weather can induce or amplify changes in physical, chemical, and biological water quality, reaction rates, the extent of water-sediment-air interactions, and also impact the performance of treatment technologies. The specific impacts depend on the watershed characteristics and local hydrological and land-use factors. Water quality responses can be transient, such as erosion-induced increases in sediment and runoff. Longer-term impacts include changes in the frequency and intensity of algal blooms, gradual changes in the nature and concentration of dissolved organic matter, dissolved solids, and modulation of the microbiological community structure, sources and survival of pathogens. In addition, waterborne contaminants associated with municipal, industrial, and agricultural activities can also impact water quality. This presentation evaluates relationships between climate and weather induced water quality variability and

  6. Vulnerability and adaptation assessments of agriculturalcrops under climate change in the Southeastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexandrov, V. A.; Hoogenboom, G.

    It is expected that a change in climatic conditions due to global warming will directly impact agricultural production. Most climate change studies have been applied at very large scales, in which regions were represented by only one or two weather stations, which were mainly located at airports of major cities. The objective of this study was to determine the potential impact of climate change at a local level, taking into account weather data recorded at remote locations. Daily weather data for a 30-year period were obtained for more than 500 sites, representing the southeastern region of the USA. Climate change scenarios, using transient and equilibrium global circulation models (GCM), were defined, created and applied to the daily historical weather data. The modified temperature, precipitation and solar radiation databases corresponding to each of the climate change scenarios were used to run the CERES v.3.5 simulation model for maize and winter wheat and the CROPGRO v.3.5 model for soybean and peanut. The GCM scenarios projected a shorter duration of the crop-growing season. Under the current level of CO2, the GCM scenarios projected a decrease of crop yields in the 2020s. When the direct effects of CO2 were assumed in the study, the scenarios resulted in an increase in soybean and peanut yield. Under equilibrium , the GCM climate change scenarios projected a decrease of maize and winter wheat yield. The indirect effects of climate change also tended to decrease soybean and peanut yield. However, when the direct effects of CO2 were included, most of the scenarios resulted in an increase in legume yields. Possible changes in sowing data, hybrids and cultivar selection, and fertilization were considered as adaptation options to mitigate the potential negative impact of potential warming.

  7. Adapting ski area operations to a warmer climate in the Swiss Alps through snowmaking investments and efficiency improvements

    OpenAIRE

    Gonseth, Camille

    2008-01-01

    Economic consequences of climate change for the Swiss winter tourism have been assessed in two studies. Though estimates of the potential annual costs highly differ between them, they however agree on two points. On the one hand, winter tourism will be one of the most affected economic sectors. On the other hand, impacts of climate change on this sector will be very disruptive. In this context, adaptation strategies must play an important role in the Swiss winter tourism sector in order to al...

  8. Adapting ski area operations to a warmer climate in the Swiss Alps through snowmaking investments and efficiency improvements

    OpenAIRE

    Gonseth, Camille; Thalmann, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    Economic consequences of climate change for the Swiss winter tourism have been assessed in two studies. Though estimates of the potential annual costs highly differ between them, they however agree on two points. On the one hand, winter tourism will be one of the most affected economic sectors. On the other hand, impacts of climate change on this sector will be very disruptive. In this context, adaptation strategies must play an important role in the Swiss winter tourism sector in order to al...

  9. Establishment of an indicator concept for the German strategy on adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von; Wulfert, Katrin [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Luthardt, Vera; Kreinsen, Beatrice; Schultz-Sternberg, R.; Hommel, Robert [Hochschule fuer Nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Even if we succeed in achieving the EU target of reducing global warming to 2 C, it will be absolutely essential to adapt to changing climatic conditions. The greenhouse gases currently present in the atmosphere will influence the climate in coming decades. The day on which it is quite clear which climatic scenario prevails, so that it is possible to model all relevant processes down to regional level, will be the day on which it is too late to adapt to the actual scenario. Our endeavours to adapt to climate change do not mean, however, that we can neglect to take measures in order to reduce the output of greenhouse gases. It is important to remember that on their own, neither adaptation nor mitigation can prevent the grave impacts resulting from climate change. In fact, they complement each other meaningfully thus helping to alleviate the risks of climate change. On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the DAS (German Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change), (Bundesregierung 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and fore-most, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide a guideline for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in this process. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and advance the DAS. An integral part of this will be the Special Information System 'Adaptation' (FISKA) and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far

  10. Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-08-01

    Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies.

  11. Potential effect of future climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brzóska Barbara

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Potential effect of future climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. Future projections of selected climate indices have been used to assess potential effects of climate changes on productivity of selected crops in Poland. CMIP5 global climate models’ results for the future period (2006-2035 and historical one (1981-2010 are used in the study. Models predict decrease in count of days with extreme low temperatures and increase in count of days with extreme high temperatures. An increase in the number of days with very heavy precipitation is also predicted. Not all climate change effects have negative impact on crop productivity in Poland but all of them confirm requirements to put into practice mitigation and adaptation strategies for Poland’s agriculture.

  12. Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-08-01

    Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies. PMID:24113738

  13. ADAPTECC: A Role-Play Game about Adapting to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, Josu; Galarraga, Ibon; Escapa García, Marta

    2016-01-01

    The ADAPTECC Climate Change Adaptation Game is a role-play game designed to enable players to experience the difficulties that arise at local and regional levels when authorities have to implement adaptation measures. Adaptation means anticipating the advert effects of climate change (CC) and taking measures to prevent and minimise the damage caused by its impacts. Each player takes the role of the mayor or a councillor of a town affected by CC who must decide what adaptation s...

  14. The Role of Markets and Governments in Helping Society Adapt to a Changing Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper provides an economic perspective of adaptation to climate change. The paper specifically examines the role of markets and government in efficient adaptation responses. For adaptations to be efficient, the benefits from following adaptations must exceed the costs. For private market goods, market actors will follow this principle in their own interest. For public goods, governments must take on this responsibility. Governments must also be careful to design institutions that encourage efficiency or they could inadvertently increase the damages from climate change. Finally, although in a few cases actors must anticipate climate changes far into the future, generally it is best to learn and then act with respect to adaptation

  15. Opportunities and Constraints for Climate Adaptation in Regional Water and Land Use Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Werners, S.E.; West, J.; Leemans, R.; Tabara, J.D.; Dai, X.; Flachner, Z.; Neufeldt, H.; McEvoy, D.; Cots, F.; Trombi, G.

    2011-01-01

    Whereas the literature on adaptation is rich in detail on the impacts of, vulnerability to, and constraints of climate adaptation, less is known about the conditions that facilitate adaptation in practice. We examined the constraints and opportunities for adaptation in water and land use planning in

  16. Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

    2014-12-01

    Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in

  17. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  18. Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, David B; Oliver, Tom H; Botham, Marc S; Beckmann, Bjorn; Brereton, Tom; Dennis, Roger L H; Harrower, Colin; Phillimore, Albert B; Thomas, Jeremy A

    2015-09-01

    Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate-driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among-population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space-temperature and time-temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature-mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest. PMID:26390228

  19. Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, David B; Oliver, Tom H; Botham, Marc S; Beckmann, Bjorn; Brereton, Tom; Dennis, Roger L H; Harrower, Colin; Phillimore, Albert B; Thomas, Jeremy A

    2015-09-01

    Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate-driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among-population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space-temperature and time-temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature-mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.

  20. Mulit Criteria - Application on Climate Change Adaptation and Biofuel Cultivation on Contaminated Land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne; Suer, Pascal; Bergman, Ramona; Helgesson, Helena

    2010-05-01

    A decision support tool/method has been developed to systematically include sustainability at an early stage in planning issues. Sustainability was subdivided into human health, environmental impacts, resources, and social and economic impacts. Health, environmental and resources impacts were based on the Swedish environmental objectives, life cycle assessment (LCA) impact categories, and contaminated soil guidelines. The resulting impact indicators were climate change - global warming potential, large scale and local air quality, water and soil quality, landscape, energy, materials, wellbeing/welfare, direct financial costs, social economic aspects, and flexi-bility. The method offers an iterative discussion framework that is systematic, condensed and yet a simplistic way of describing consequences of climate change and related adaptation measures including economic, social and environmental aspects. Application of the tool to biofuel cultivation on contaminated soil indicated that traditional soil remediation may have higher social and economical benefits but be less suitable from a health, environment, and resources perspective. The tool has further been applied in municipalities on climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Re-sults from the application in tree municipalities will be presented: Gothenburg City, Lidköping and Arvika. In Gothenburg and Lidköping the major impact of climate change is increase in sea water level (North Sea and Lake Vänern respectively) combined with extreme weather conditions. According to regional climate change scenarios Arvika is located in one of the worst affected areas in Sweden with respect to increase of intensive rainfall and extreme flows. The adaptation measures investigated at the three locations include doing nothing, different constructions and planning. The results are based on previous risk identification investigations, flood and land slide maps and interviews with civil servants in the three municipalities.

  1. A collection of Australian Drosophila datasets on climate adaptation and species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangartner, Sandra B; Hoffmann, Ary A; Smith, Ailie; Griffin, Philippa C

    2015-11-24

    The Australian Drosophila Ecology and Evolution Resource (ADEER) collates Australian datasets on drosophilid flies, which are aimed at investigating questions around climate adaptation, species distribution limits and population genetics. Australian drosophilid species are diverse in climatic tolerance, geographic distribution and behaviour. Many species are restricted to the tropics, a few are temperate specialists, and some have broad distributions across climatic regions. Whereas some species show adaptability to climate changes through genetic and plastic changes, other species have limited adaptive capacity. This knowledge has been used to identify traits and genetic polymorphisms involved in climate change adaptation and build predictive models of responses to climate change. ADEER brings together 103 datasets from 39 studies published between 1982-2013 in a single online resource. All datasets can be downloaded freely in full, along with maps and other visualisations. These historical datasets are preserved for future studies, which will be especially useful for assessing climate-related changes over time.

  2. Climate change and health in the United States of America: impacts, adaptations, and research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After a description of the various impacts of climate change on human health, this report describes and comments the impacts of climate change on health in the USA: impacts of heat waves, of air quality degradation, of extreme climate events, of climate change on infectious diseases and allergies, regional impacts of climate change. In a second part, it describes the strategies of adaptation to the 'climate change and health' issue in the USA: mitigation and adaptation to climate change, adaptation challenges, insufficiently prepared public health system, adaptation to heat waves, adaptation to air quality degradation, adaptation to extreme climate events, adaptation to food- and water-based diseases and to vector-based diseases, examples of proactive adaptation. The last part describes the organisation of research on 'climate change and health' in the USA: nowadays and in the future, role of federal agencies, priority research axes. The 'United States Global Change Research Program' is presented in appendix, as well as the most important research centres (mostly in universities)

  3. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

  4. Integration of Adaptation and Mitigation in Climate Change and Forest Policies in Indonesia and Vietnam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pham Thu Thuy

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Forests play a major role in both climate change mitigation and adaptation, but few policies, if any, integrate these two aspects. Using Indonesia and Vietnam as case studies, we identify challenges at the national level but opportunities at the local level. Although both countries demonstrate political commitment to integrating adaptation and mitigation in their development plans, guidelines for policy and planning treat the two approaches separately. The main challenges identified are lack of knowledge, lack of political will, lack of financial incentives, and fragmentation of mandates and tasks of different government agencies. In contrast, at the local level, integration of mitigation and adaptation is facilitated by subnational autonomy, where mitigation projects might have adaptation co-benefits, and vice versa. Our results also show that many actors have a dual mandate that could bridge adaptation and mitigation if appropriate political and financial incentives are put in place. Successful integration of mitigation and adaptation policies would not only remove contradictions between policies, but also encourage governments that are designing domestic policies to exploit the potential for positive spillovers and realize the benefits of both approaches.

  5. Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points for Adaptation in Urban Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Zarafu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The design of adaptation strategies that promote urban health and well-being in the face of climate change requires an understanding of the feedback interactions that take place between the dynamical state of a city, the health of its people, and the state of the planet. Complexity, contingency and uncertainty combine to impede the growth of such systemic understandings. In this paper we suggest that the collaborative development of conceptual models can help a group to identify potential leverage points for effective adaptation. We describe a three-step procedure that leads from the development of a high-level system template, through the selection of a problem space that contains one or more of the group’s adaptive challenges, to a specific conceptual model of a sub-system of importance to the group. This procedure is illustrated by a case study of urban dwellers’ maladaptive dependence on private motor vehicles. We conclude that a system dynamics approach, revolving around the collaborative construction of a set of conceptual models, can help communities to improve their adaptive capacity, and so better meet the challenge of maintaining, and even improving, urban health in the face of climate change.

  6. Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points for Adaptation in Urban Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Proust, Katrina; Newell, Barry; Brown, Helen; Capon, Anthony; Browne, Chris; Burton, Anthony; Dixon, Jane; Mu, Lisa; Zarafu, Monica

    2012-01-01

    The design of adaptation strategies that promote urban health and well-being in the face of climate change requires an understanding of the feedback interactions that take place between the dynamical state of a city, the health of its people, and the state of the planet. Complexity, contingency and uncertainty combine to impede the growth of such systemic understandings. In this paper we suggest that the collaborative development of conceptual models can help a group to identify potential leverage points for effective adaptation. We describe a three-step procedure that leads from the development of a high-level system template, through the selection of a problem space that contains one or more of the group’s adaptive challenges, to a specific conceptual model of a sub-system of importance to the group. This procedure is illustrated by a case study of urban dwellers’ maladaptive dependence on private motor vehicles. We conclude that a system dynamics approach, revolving around the collaborative construction of a set of conceptual models, can help communities to improve their adaptive capacity, and so better meet the challenge of maintaining, and even improving, urban health in the face of climate change. PMID:22829795

  7. Adaptation Behaviors of Communities and Households to Extreme Climate Events in Quang Nam Province, Viet Nam: Towards a Set of Possible Adaptation Measures

    OpenAIRE

    Phong Tran; Tran Huu Tuan; Bui Dung The; Bui Duc Tinh

    2010-01-01

    Climate change and adaptation to its impacts are pressing issues. Great efforts have been made locally to prevent and adapt to climate change events but problems related to climate change are exacerbated in poor communities in developing countries. Understanding local adaptation capacity and responses to climate change events is important so that barriers that constrain adaptation capacity can be identified and solutions to bridge the gaps and enhance local capacity can be sought. Located in ...

  8. Beyond cool: adapting upland streams for climate change using riparian woodlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Stephen M; Griffiths, Siân W; Ormerod, Steve J

    2016-01-01

    Managed adaptation could reduce the risks of climate change to the world's ecosystems, but there have been surprisingly few practical evaluations of the options available. For example, riparian woodland is advocated widely as shade to reduce warming in temperate streams, but few studies have considered collateral effects on species composition or ecosystem functions. Here, we use cross-sectional analyses at two scales (region and within streams) to investigate whether four types of riparian management, including those proposed to reduce potential climate change impacts, might also affect the composition, functional character, dynamics and energetic resourcing of macroinvertebrates in upland Welsh streams (UK). Riparian land use across the region had only small effects on invertebrate taxonomic composition, while stable isotope data showed how energetic resources assimilated by macroinvertebrates in all functional guilds were split roughly 50:50 between terrestrial and aquatic origins irrespective of riparian management. Nevertheless, streams draining the most extensive deciduous woodland had the greatest stocks of coarse particulate matter (CPOM) and greater numbers of 'shredding' detritivores. Stream-scale investigations showed that macroinvertebrate biomass in deciduous woodland streams was around twice that in moorland streams, and lowest of all in streams draining non-native conifers. The unexpected absence of contrasting terrestrial signals in the isotopic data implies that factors other than local land use affect the relative incorporation of allochthonous subsidies into riverine food webs. Nevertheless, our results reveal how planting deciduous riparian trees along temperate headwaters as an adaptation to climate change can modify macroinvertebrate function, increase biomass and potentially enhance resilience by increasing basal resources where cover is extensive (>60 m riparian width). We advocate greater urgency in efforts to understand the ecosystem

  9. The Influence of Forums and Multilevel Governance on the Climate Adaptation Practices of Australian Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorraine E. Bates

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available To date, there are few regulations and policies relating to climate change in Australia. Uncertainty about the timing, structure, and potential impact of proposed legislation such as a national carbon abatement scheme, is leading to planning delays across the country. To assist with these policy uncertainties, organizations can embed themselves in multilevel governance frameworks that inform, structure, and facilitate strategic development, planning, and action. As part of these networks, organizational representatives also engage in formal and informal forums, a type of interorganizational relationship, which can include industry task forces, policy development committees, interagency groups, and specific climate change committees. Forums constitute an additional level of governance that influences decision making. The patterns of relationships within these multilevel governance frameworks are examined in this paper, with a focus on the forum level of organizational cooperation. Specifically, we investigate the type of forums operating and their role in supporting organizational responses to climate change. A series of interviews and focus groups were conducted in two study areas, the Swan Canning region of Western Australia and the Hunter / Central Coast region of New South Wales. The results indicate that organizations participate in a diverse range of forums. Further, forums appear to play a key role in the everyday business of organizations by enhancing their ability to plan and address a range of issues, including those associated with climate change. In addition the research highlights some of the barriers and drivers for the development and implementation of climate adaptation practices that emerge from forum discussions. For example, a lack of government guidance in interpreting climate change policy was described as a barrier yet access to the knowledge and expertise of participants was highlighted as a potential driver. The paper

  10. Adaptation potential of naturally ventilated barns to high temperature extremes: The OptiBarn project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menz, Christoph

    2016-04-01

    Climate change interferes with various aspects of the socio-economic system. One important aspect is its influence on animal husbandry, especially dairy faming. Dairy cows are usually kept in naturally ventilated barns (NVBs) which are particular vulnerable to extreme events due to their low adaptation capabilities. An effective adaptation to high outdoor temperatures for example, is only possible under certain wind and humidity conditions. High temperature extremes are expected to increase in number and strength under climate change. To assess the impact of this change on NVBs and dairy cows also the changes in wind and humidity needs to be considered. Hence we need to consider the multivariate structure of future temperature extremes. The OptiBarn project aims to develop sustainable adaptation strategies for dairy housings under climate change for Europe, by considering the multivariate structure of high temperature extremes. In a first step we identify various multivariate high temperature extremes for three core regions in Europe. With respect to dairy cows in NVBs we will focus on the wind and humidity field during high temperature events. In a second step we will use the CORDEX-EUR-11 ensemble to evaluate the capability of the RCMs to model such events and assess their future change potential. By transferring the outdoor conditions to indoor climate and animal wellbeing the results of this assessment can be used to develop technical, architectural and animal specific adaptation strategies for high temperature extremes.

  11. Balancing expenditures on mitigation of and adaptation to climate change : an exploration of Issues relevant to developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Lecocq, Franck; Shalizi, Zmarak

    2007-01-01

    Although climate policies have been so far mostly focused on mitigation, adaptation to climate change is a growing concern in developed and developing countries. This paper discusses how adaptation fits into the global climate strategy, at the global and national levels. To do so, a partial equilibrium optimization model of climate policies-which includes mitigation, proactive adaptation (...

  12. Climate Change and Sugarcane Production: Potential Impact and Mitigation Strategies

    OpenAIRE

    Duli Zhao; Yang-Rui Li

    2015-01-01

    Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) is an important crop for sugar and bioenergy worldwide. The increasing greenhouse gas emission and global warming during climate change result in the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Climate change is expected to have important consequences for sugarcane production in the world, especially in the developing countries because of relatively low adaptive capacity, high vulnerability to natural hazards, and poor forecasting systems ...

  13. Farmers Perception and Adaptation to Climate Change: An Estimation of Willingness to Pay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. de-Graft Acquah

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change to enhance policy towards tackling the challenges climate change poses to the farmers in Ghana. With regards to farmers’ perception and methods of adaptation, majority of the farmers perceived increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall pattern. Farmers’ level of adaptation was found to be relatively high with majority of the farmers using changing planting dates, different crop varieties, soil conservation and water harvesting as the major adaptation measures to climate change impacts. However, access to water, high cost of adaptation, lack of information, lack of knowledge on adaptation, insecure property rights, insufficient access to inputs and lack of credits were identified as the major barriers to adaptation. The probit regression estimation results indicated that the probability of willingness to pay for climate change mitigation policies increases with age, years of education and ownership of farm land

  14. Expert opinion on extinction risk and climate change adaptation for biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debra Javeline

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Despite projections of biodiversity loss and proposed adaptations to climate change, few data exist on the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation strategies in minimizing biodiversity loss. Given the urgent need for action, scientific experts can fill critical information gaps by providing rapid and discerning risk assessment. A survey of 2,329 biodiversity experts projects, on average, that 9.5% of species will become extinct due to climate change within the next 100 years. This average projection is low relative to previously published values but substantial in absolute terms, because it amounts to a loss of hundreds of thousands of species over the next century. The average projection increases to 21% when experts are asked to estimate the percentage of species that will become extinct within the next 100 years due to climate change in combination with other causes. More than three-quarters of respondents reported being uncertain about their extinction estimates. A majority of experts preferred protected areas or corridors to reduce extinction risk but identified ex situ conservation and no intervention as the most feasible strategies. Experts also suggest that managed relocation of species, a particular adaptation strategy, is justifiable and effective in some situations but not others. Justifiable circumstances include the prevention of species extinction and overcoming human-made barriers to dispersal, and while experts are divided on the potential effectiveness of managed relocation for most taxonomic groups, higher percentages predict it effective for woody plants, terrestrial insects, and mammals. Most experts are open to the potential benefits of managed relocation but are concerned about unintended harmful consequences, particularly putting non-target species at risk of extinction. On balance, published biodiversity scientists feel that managed relocation, despite controversy about it, can be part of the conservation

  15. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1997-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  16. An adaptive interpolation scheme for molecular potential energy surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalewski, Markus; Larsson, Elisabeth; Heryudono, Alfa

    2016-08-01

    The calculation of potential energy surfaces for quantum dynamics can be a time consuming task—especially when a high level of theory for the electronic structure calculation is required. We propose an adaptive interpolation algorithm based on polyharmonic splines combined with a partition of unity approach. The adaptive node refinement allows to greatly reduce the number of sample points by employing a local error estimate. The algorithm and its scaling behavior are evaluated for a model function in 2, 3, and 4 dimensions. The developed algorithm allows for a more rapid and reliable interpolation of a potential energy surface within a given accuracy compared to the non-adaptive version.

  17. An adaptive interpolation scheme for molecular potential energy surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalewski, Markus; Larsson, Elisabeth; Heryudono, Alfa

    2016-08-28

    The calculation of potential energy surfaces for quantum dynamics can be a time consuming task-especially when a high level of theory for the electronic structure calculation is required. We propose an adaptive interpolation algorithm based on polyharmonic splines combined with a partition of unity approach. The adaptive node refinement allows to greatly reduce the number of sample points by employing a local error estimate. The algorithm and its scaling behavior are evaluated for a model function in 2, 3, and 4 dimensions. The developed algorithm allows for a more rapid and reliable interpolation of a potential energy surface within a given accuracy compared to the non-adaptive version. PMID:27586901

  18. An adaptive interpolation scheme for molecular potential energy surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Kowalewski, Markus; Heryudono, Alfa

    2016-01-01

    The calculation of potential energy surfaces for quantum dynamics can be a time consuming task -- especially when a high level of theory for the electronic structure calculation is required. We propose an adaptive interpolation algorithm based on polyharmonic splines combined with a partition of unity approach. The adaptive node refinement allows to greatly reduce the number of sample points by employing a local error estimate. The algorithm and its scaling behavior is evaluated for a model function in 2, 3 and 4 dimensions. The developed algorithm allows for a more rapid and reliable interpolation of a potential energy surface within a given accuracy compared to the non-adaptive version.

  19. Can barley (Hordeum vulgare L. s.l.) adapt to fast climate changes? A controlled selection experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Alemayehu, Fikadu Reta; Frenck, Georg; van der Linden, Leon;

    2013-01-01

    The projected future climate will affect the global agricultural production negatively, however, to keep abreast of the expected increase in global population, the agricultural production must increase. Therefore, to safeguard the future crop yield and quality, the adaptive potential of crops to ...

  20. Cities and adaptation to climate change. Report to the Prime Minister and to the Parliament

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The first part of this report sets the general problematic framework: positive and negative impacts of climate change on cities, city vulnerability factors, and adaptation ways to reduce urban vulnerability. The second part addresses adaptation strategies. It is based on an analysis of the implementation of adaptation actions by several French and foreign cities. It highlights levers and obstacles for adaptation, and identifies other policies which could support the adaptation effort. It also highlights the recent multidisciplinary dynamics of research on the sustainable city, and the implementation of projects for the reduction of city vulnerability and the adaptation of cities to climate change. Some programs are presented in appendix

  1. Water management to cope with and adapt to climate variability and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdy, A.; Trisorio-Liuzzi, G.

    2009-04-01

    In many parts of the world, variability in climatic conditions is already resulting in major impacts. These impacts are wide ranging and the link to water management problems is obvious and profound. The know-how and the available information undoubtedly indicate that climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on regional water resources, affecting both ground and surface water supply for sectorial water uses and, in particular, the irrigation field imposing notable negative effects on food security and poverty alleviation programs in most arid and semi-arid developing countries. At the United Nations Millennium Summit, in September 2000, world leaders adopted the Millennium Development Declaration. From this declaration, the IWRM was recognised as the key concept the water sector should be using for water related development and measures and, hence, for achieving the water related MDG's. However, the potential impacts of climate change and increasing climate variability are not sufficiently addressed in the IWRM plans. Indeed, only a very limited IWRM national plans have been prepared, coping with climate variability and changes. This is mainly due to the lack of operational instruments to deal with climate change and climate variability issues. This is particularly true in developing countries where the financial, human and ecological impacts are potentially greatest and where water resources may be already highly stressed, but the capacity to cope and adapt is weakest. Climate change has now brought realities including mainly rising temperatures and increasing frequency of floods and droughts that present new challenges to be addressed by the IWRM practice. There are already several regional and international initiatives underway that focus on various aspects of water resources management those to be linked with climate changes and vulnerability issues. This is the way where the water resources

  2. Climate Change and Adaptation Planning on the Los Angeles Aqueduct

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, S. B.; Bales, R. C.; Costa-Cabral, M. C.; Chen, L.; Maurer, E. P.; Miller, N. L.; Mills, W. B.

    2009-12-01

    This study provides an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on the Eastern Sierra Nevada snowpack and snowmelt timing, using a combination of empirical (i.e., data-based) models, and computer simulation models forced by GCM-projected 21st century climatology (IPCC 2007 AR4 projections). Precipitation from the Eastern Sierra Nevada is one of the main water sources for Los Angeles' more than 4 million people - a source whose future availability is critical to the city's growing population and large economy. Precipitation in the region falls mostly in winter and is stored in the large natural reservoir that is the snowpack. Meltwater from the Eastern Sierra is delivered to the city by the 340-mile long Los Angeles Aqueducts. The analysis is focused on the nature of the impact to the LAA water supplies over the 21st century due to potential climate change, including volume of precipitation, the mix of snowfall and rainfall, shifts in the timing of runoff, interannual variability and multi-year droughts. These impacts further affect the adequacy of seasonal and annual carryover water storage, and potentially water treatment. Most of the snow in the 10,000 km^2 Mono-Owens basins that feed the LAA occurs in a relatively narrow, 10-20 km wide, high-elevation band on the steep slopes of 20 smaller basins whose streams drain into the Owens River and thence LAA. Extending over 240 km in the north-south direction, these basins present special challenges for estimating snowpack amounts and downscaling climate-model data. In addition, there are few meteorological stations and snow measurements in the snow-producing parts of the basins to drive physically based hydrologic modeling.

  3. Decision criteria of potential solar IPH adapters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perwin, E.; Levine, A.; Mikasa, G.; Noun, R. J.; Schaller, D.

    1981-12-01

    If national programs are to be effective in the research and development of viable renewable resource technologies for the industrial sector, understanding industry's decision criteria will be important. The results of a preliminary investigation of the decision criteria of potential and actual users of solar industrial process heat systems are presented. Detailed interviews were completed with decision-makers from ten manufacturing firms. Based on economic theory, it was assumed that corporate decision-makers assess the expected cost, revenue, and uncertainty of competing investment opportunities. These decision criteria are composed of factors that are financial, technical, and institutional. Clearly, the firms interviewed were more concerned with costs than any other category of decision criteria. Most of the firms also believed that there was less uncertainty with competing investments than with current solar technology. Based on this preliminary investigation, a more extensive survey of industrial firms is suggested to determine a more comprehensive list of significant decision criteria.

  4. Adapting California Water Management to Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanak, E.; Lund, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    California faces the prospect of significant water management challenges from climate change. The most certain changes are accelerated sea level rise and increased temperatures, which will reduce the Sierra Nevada snowpack and shift more runoff to winter months. These changes will likely cause major problems for flood control, for water supply reservoir operations, and for the maintenance of the present system of water exports through the fragile levee system of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Rising water temperatures also are likely to compromise habitat for some native aquatic species and pose challenges for reservoir operations, which must release cool water to support fish downstream. Although there is as yet little scientific consensus on the effects of climate change on overall precipitation levels, many expect precipitation variability to increase, with more extreme drought and flood events posing additional challenges to water managers. Fortunately, California also possesses numerous assets - including adaptation tools and institutional capabilities - which can limit vulnerability of the state’s residents to changing conditions. Water supply managers have already begun using underground storage, water transfers, conservation, recycling, and desalination to expand their capacity to meet changing demands, and these same tools present cost-effective options for responding to a wide range of climate change scenarios. Many staples of flood management - including reservoir operations, levees, bypasses, insurance, and land-use regulation - are appropriate for the challenges posed by increasing flood flows. Yet actions are also needed to improve response capacity in some areas. For water supply, a central issue is the management of the Delta, where new conveyance and habitat investments and regulations are needed to sustain water supply reliability and ecosystem conditions. For flood management, studies to anticipate required changes have only begun, and

  5. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  6. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  7. International experiences on the formulation and implementation of transboundary climate change adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmerman, J.G.; Ly, T.; Nguyen Huong Thuy, P.

    2014-01-01

    The Mekong River Commission’s (MRC) Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) aims at formulating the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lower Mekong Basin. An important first step in developing this strategy is to review international experiences of existing strategies, to learn from

  8. In Hac Vita: Increasing Nordic Homeowners' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neset, Tina; Linnér, Björn-Ola; Navarra, carlo;

    2013-01-01

    The NordForsk funded research project In Hac Vita project is a collaboration between the Nordic insurance companies If, Gjensidige, Trygg-Hansa/ Codan and Tryg Insurance, and the Top-level Research Initiative the Nordic Centre of Excellence NORD-STAR. The project concerns climate change adaptation...... to adapt to climate change and extreme weather effects....

  9. Linking training, research and policy advice: capacity building for adaptation to climate change in East Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Terwisscha van Scheltinga, C.T.H.M.; Geene, van J.

    2011-01-01

    It is increasingly acknowledged that adapting to climate change is important in developing countries, where the majority of people depend on agriculture and natural resources for their livelihoods, and their capacity to adapt to change is low. These people are especially vulnerable to climate change

  10. The optimal paths of climate change mitigation and adaptation under certainty and uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Felgenhauer, T.; Bruin, de K.C.

    2009-01-01

    Tradeoffs between climate change mitigation and adaptation policies are explored under both certainty and uncertainty with learning using a numerical two-period decision model. We first replicate a version of the Adaptation in DICE climate model (AD-DICE) (de Bruin et al., 2009), which modifies the

  11. Integrated assessment of farm level adaptation to climate change in agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mandryk, M.

    2016-01-01

    The findings of the thesis allowed assessing plausible futures of agriculture in Flevoland around 2050 with insights in effective adaptation to climate change at different levels. Besides empirical findings, this thesis contributed methodologically to the portfolio of climate change impact and adapt

  12. The political economy of urban climate adaptation and development planning in Surat, India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Chu

    2015-01-01

    This paper argues for a political economic approach to understanding climate change adaptation and development planning in an urban context. Based on field research conducted in Surat, India, across a period of two years, I illustrate how climate adaptation is rooted in preexisting and contextually

  13. Vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change: The Estonian national report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kont, A.; Punning, J.M. [Inst. of Ecology, Tallinn (Estonia); Ainsaar, M. [Univ. of Tartu (Estonia)] [and others

    1996-04-01

    Because of its geography, wide coastal areas, water resources, forests, and wetlands, the environment of Estonia is sensitive to climate change and sea level rise. Therefore, the vulnerability and adaptation assessment focused on these sectors GCM-based and incremental climate change scenarios are used for V and A assessment in Estonia. The results of five GCMs provided by NCAR are available, and four of them (GISS, CCCM, GFDL30, GFDL transient) are chosen for the assessment in Estonia. The CERES-Barley model is used to assess crop productivity in four long-term (1966--1987) barley field trials situated on different types of soils in different parts of Estonia. The SPUR-2 model which was expected to be used to assess herbage sensitivity to climate change doesn`t fit Estonia. To estimate the responses of forests to proposed climate change scenarios, five study sites with relatively species rich forest stands and with different types of climate (continental and moderately maritime) are selected and the simple version of the Forest Gap Model is used. The Holdridge Life Zones Classification Models are also used to determine the potential evapotranspiration ratio for different tree species and the multiplier for temperature as a function of the forest growth. The WatBal model is used in water resources vulnerability assessment for three rivers with different hydrological regimes and landscape conditions.

  14. Adaptation policies to increase terrestrial ecosystem resilience. Potential utility of a multicriteria approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    de Bremond, Ariane [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Engle, Nathan L. [World Bank, Washington, DC (United States)

    2014-01-30

    Climate change is rapidly undermining terrestrial ecosystem resilience and capacity to continue providing their services to the benefit of humanity and nature. Because of the importance of terrestrial ecosystems to human well-being and supporting services, decision makers throughout the world are busy creating policy responses that secure multiple development and conservation objectives- including that of supporting terrestrial ecosystem resilience in the context of climate change. This article aims to advance analyses on climate policy evaluation and planning in the area of terrestrial ecosystem resilience by discussing adaptation policy options within the ecology-economy-social nexus. The paper evaluates these decisions in the realm of terrestrial ecosystem resilience and evaluates the utility of a set of criteria, indicators, and assessment methods, proposed by a new conceptual multi-criteria framework for pro-development climate policy and planning developed by the United Nations Environment Programme. Potential applications of a multicriteria approach to climate policy vis-A -vis terrestrial ecosystems are then explored through two hypothetical case study examples. The paper closes with a brief discussion of the utility of the multi-criteria approach in the context of other climate policy evaluation approaches, considers lessons learned as a result efforts to evaluate climate policy in the realm of terrestrial ecosystems, and reiterates the role of ecosystem resilience in creating sound policies and actions that support the integration of climate change and development goals.

  15. Present limits to heat-adaptability in corals and population-level responses to climate extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard M Riegl

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1-3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33-35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as "critically endangered". We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world's most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.

  16. Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

    2013-01-15

    The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to

  17. Engineered Gold Nanoparticles and Plant Adaptation Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Khwaja Salahuddin; Husen, Azamal

    2016-09-01

    Use of metal nanoparticles in biological system has recently been recognised although little is known about their possible effects on plant growth and development. Nanoparticles accumulation, translocation, growth response and stress modulation in plant system is not well understood. Plants exposed to gold and gold nanoparticles have been demonstrated to exhibit both positive and negative effects. Their growth and yield vary from species to species. Cytoxicity of engineered gold nanoparticles depends on the concentration, particle size and shape. They exhibit increase in vegetative growth and yield of fruit/seed at lower concentration and decrease them at higher concentration. Studies have shown that the gold nanoparticles exposure has improved free radical scavenging potential and antioxidant enzymatic activities and alter micro RNAs expression that regulate different morphological, physiological and metabolic processes in plants. These modulations lead to improved plant growth and yields. Prior to the use of gold nanoparticles, it has been suggested that its cost may be calculated to see if it is economically feasible.

  18. Engineered Gold Nanoparticles and Plant Adaptation Potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Khwaja Salahuddin; Husen, Azamal

    2016-12-01

    Use of metal nanoparticles in biological system has recently been recognised although little is known about their possible effects on plant growth and development. Nanoparticles accumulation, translocation, growth response and stress modulation in plant system is not well understood. Plants exposed to gold and gold nanoparticles have been demonstrated to exhibit both positive and negative effects. Their growth and yield vary from species to species. Cytoxicity of engineered gold nanoparticles depends on the concentration, particle size and shape. They exhibit increase in vegetative growth and yield of fruit/seed at lower concentration and decrease them at higher concentration. Studies have shown that the gold nanoparticles exposure has improved free radical scavenging potential and antioxidant enzymatic activities and alter micro RNAs expression that regulate different morphological, physiological and metabolic processes in plants. These modulations lead to improved plant growth and yields. Prior to the use of gold nanoparticles, it has been suggested that its cost may be calculated to see if it is economically feasible. PMID:27637892

  19. "I know, therefore I adapt?" Complexities of individual adaptation to climate-induced forest dieback in Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren E. Oakes

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Individual actions to avoid, benefit from, or cope with climate change impacts partly shape adaptation; much research on adaptation has focused at the systems level, overlooking drivers of individual responses. Theoretical frameworks and empirical studies of environmental behavior identify a complex web of cognitive, affective, and evaluative factors that motivate stewardship. We explore the relationship between knowledge of, and adaptation to, widespread, climate-induced tree mortality to understand the cognitive (i.e., knowledge and learning, affective (i.e., attitudes and place attachment, and evaluative (i.e., use values factors that influence how individuals respond to climate-change impacts. From 43 semistructured interviews with forest managers and users in a temperate forest, we identified distinct responses to local, climate-induced environmental changes that we then categorized as either behavioral or psychological adaptations. Interviewees developed a depth of knowledge about the dieback through a combination of direct, place-based experiences and indirect, mediated learning through social interactions. Knowing that the dieback was associated with climate change led to different adaptive responses among the interviewees, although knowledge alone did not explain this variation. Forest users reported psychological adaptations to process negative attitudes; these adaptations were spurred by knowledge of the causes, losses of intangible values, and impacts to a species to which they held attachment. Behavioral adaptations exclusive to a high level of knowledge included actions such as using the forests to educate others or changing transportation behaviors to reduce personal energy consumption. Managers integrated awareness of the dieback and its dynamics across spatial scales into current management objectives. Our findings suggest that adaptive management may occur from the bottom up, as individual managers implement new practices in

  20. Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions and Adaptation to Climate Variability and Climate Change in Doba District, West Hararghe, Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Belaineh Legesse; Yared Ayele; Woldeamlak Bewket

    2013-01-01

    This study assessed farmers’ perceptions and adaptation to climate variability and change in Doba District, West Hararghe, Ethiopia. The study also investigated determinant factors influencing adaptation strategies to climate variability and change. The study followed a multistage stratified random sampling procedure. Data collected from 160 sample households was used in this study. Descriptive statistics were employed to assess perceptions among gender and social groups while the multinomial...

  1. Overview of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in China’s Agriculture

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jin-xia; HUANG Ji-kun; YANG Jun

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers. The review of literature shows that climate change will have a signiifcant impact on agriculture, primarily through its effect on crop yields. The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop, the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities. Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists. On adaptation, the government’s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies, reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity. Farmers do adapt to climate change, but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change. The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.

  2. 2000 years of cultural adaptation to climate change in the Southwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blinman, Eric

    2008-11-01

    Modern concerns with climate change often overlook the extensive history of both climate change and human adaptation over the millennia. While questions of human-climate system causation are important, especially to the extent that our current behavior is driving environmental change, human societies have experienced multiple climate changes in the past, independent of causation. The histories of cultural adaptation to those changes can help us understand the dynamic interaction between climate and society, expanding the possibilities for "proactive adaptation" that may be available to us today. The underlying principles of cultural adaptation are generally independent of the source of the climate change, and the lessons of the past can suggest social and economic paths that can lead toward sustainability and away from collapse.

  3. Adaptation to Climate Change: How we are set to cope with the impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reid, Hannah; Huq, Saleemul

    2007-06-15

    Climate change is now very much with us, and for the poorest of the poor the implications are particularly daunting. These often remote or marginalised communities are so burdened they will struggle to meet the coming challenges. Adaptation – learning to cope with rising temperature and other effects of climate change – is a difficult but essential task for these vulnerable millions. This briefing paper defines climate change adaptation and shows why it matters, who needs to adapt most, and what shape adaptation must take across a range of scales and sectors.

  4. Good Practice in Designing and Implementing National Monitoring Systems for Adaptation to Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naswa, Prakriti; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Bouroncle, Claudia;

    In this report, we identify, analyse and compare international good practices in the design and implementation of national monitoring and evaluating indicator systems for climate change adaptation. This first chapter provides an introduction to the context and key terminology in the domain...... of climate change adaptation and indicators for M&E of adaptation. The second chapter discusses the existing approaches to M&E, while Chapter 3 provides a general overview of approaches to M&E Frameworks for Climate Change Adaptation. Chapters 4 and 5 outline and discuss the application and relevance...

  5. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute...... to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics......, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa...

  6. The Colorado Climate Preparedness Project: A Systematic Approach to Assessing Efforts Supporting State-Level Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, R.; Gordon, E.

    2010-12-01

    Scholars and policy analysts often contend that an effective climate adaptation strategy must entail "mainstreaming," or incorporating responses to possible climate impacts into existing planning and management decision frameworks. Such an approach, however, makes it difficult to assess the degree to which decisionmaking entities are engaging in adaptive activities that may or may not be explicitly framed around a changing climate. For example, a drought management plan may not explicitly address climate change, but the activities and strategies outlined in it may reduce vulnerabilities posed by a variable and changing climate. Consequently, to generate a strategic climate adaptation plan requires identifying the entire suite of activities that are implicitly linked to climate and may affect adaptive capacity within the system. Here we outline a novel, two-pronged approach, leveraging social science methods, to understanding adaptation throughout state government in Colorado. First, we conducted a series of interviews with key actors in state and federal government agencies, non-governmental organizations, universities, and other entities engaged in state issues. The purpose of these interviews was to elicit information about current activities that may affect the state’s adaptive capacity and to identify future climate-related needs across the state. Second, we have developed an interactive database cataloging organizations, products, projects, and people actively engaged in adaptive planning and policymaking that are relevant to the state of Colorado. The database includes a wiki interface, helping create a dynamic component that will enable frequent updating as climate-relevant information emerges. The results of this project are intended to paint a clear picture of sectors and agencies with higher and lower levels of adaptation awareness and to provide a roadmap for the next gubernatorial administration to pursue a more sophisticated climate adaptation agenda

  7. Climate change adaptation and the social factor; Klimatilpasning og den sociale faktor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjerulf Petersen, L.; Jensen, Anne; Svalgaard Nielsen, S.

    2009-06-15

    This report addresses the social aspects of climate change adaptation. How do people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation; what risks are associated with climate change, and how are these risks balanced with other risks and concerns of everyday life and long-range choices? The report is based on an explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The issue was investigated through literature studies and interviews with respondents with residence in different parts of Denmark. The study was based on a distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation and further on an assumption in adaptation policies that some adaptation measures - for economic or practical reasons - will have to be carried out by private citizens and households. This study showed, however, that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. Moreover, the prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. Nevertheless, some adaptation measures are carried out by single households and local communities. When households experience weather related damages - of a kind that are expected to occur more frequently and with greater force as a result of climate changes - they take action to repair damages and prevent similar damages in the future; at least the kind of action that is easily carried out such as moving valuable goods from the basement or felling a tree. Such measures are, however, not necessarily understood in a context of climate change adaptation; they are rather specific reactions to acute problems. To the extent that a more thorough precautionary adaptation effort is required, also by private citizens, it will have to be performed in

  8. Capacity Building for the Integration of Climate Adaptation into Urban Planning Processes: The Dutch Experience

    OpenAIRE

    Hartmann, T.(Institut für Physik, Universität Rostock, Rostock, Germany, associated to11); Spit, T.J.M.

    2014-01-01

    The institutions of the Dutch (urban) planning system face four challenging characteristics of climate adaptation measures. These measures are uncertain in their effects, in competition with other interests, multifaceted, and inherently complex. Capacity building is a key issue for the implementation of climate adaptation measures in urban planning processes, which aim to achieve Climate-Proof Cities (CPC). For successful capacity building, it is important to define the relevant stakeholders ...

  9. Economic analysis of climate change adaptation strategies in selected coastal areas in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Perez, M.L.; Sajise, A.J.U.; Ramirez, P.J.B.; Arias, J.K.B.; Purnomo, A.H.; Dipasupil, S.R.; Regoniel, P.A.; Nguyen, K.A.T.; Zamora, G.J.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change with its attendant geophysical hazards is well studied. A great deal of attention has gone into analyzing climate change impacts as well as searching out possible mitigating adaptive strategies. These matters are very real concerns, especially for coastal communities. Such communities are often the most vulnerable to climate change, since their citizens frequently live in abject poverty and have limited capacity to adapt to geophysical hazards. Their situation is further compli...

  10. Insurance against Climate Change : Financial Disaster Risk Management and Insurance Options for Climate Change Adaptation in Bulgaria

    OpenAIRE

    World Bank Group

    2014-01-01

    Bulgaria is exposed to nearly all types of climate extremes, including floods, droughts, and others, as well as earthquakes. The combination of insurance products, early warning systems, information campaigns, infrastructure adaptation measures, and strict regulations can be very useful in tackling the negative climate change impacts. This note provides an overview of the insurance sector ...

  11. Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

    2013-09-01

    Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary