WorldWideScience

Sample records for climate adaptation potential

  1. Estimating the potential for adaptation of corals to climate warming.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaus B M Császár

    Full Text Available The persistence of tropical coral reefs is threatened by rapidly increasing climate warming, causing a functional breakdown of the obligate symbiosis between corals and their algal photosymbionts (Symbiodinium through a process known as coral bleaching. Yet the potential of the coral-algal symbiosis to genetically adapt in an evolutionary sense to warming oceans is unknown. Using a quantitative genetics approach, we estimated the proportion of the variance in thermal tolerance traits that has a genetic basis (i.e. heritability as a proxy for their adaptive potential in the widespread Indo-Pacific reef-building coral Acropora millepora. We chose two physiologically different populations that associate respectively with one thermo-tolerant (Symbiodinium clade D and one less tolerant symbiont type (Symbiodinium C2. In both symbiont types, pulse amplitude modulated (PAM fluorometry and high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC analysis revealed significant heritabilities for traits related to both photosynthesis and photoprotective pigment profile. However, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR assays showed a lack of heritability in both coral host populations for their own expression of fundamental stress genes. Coral colony growth, contributed to by both symbiotic partners, displayed heritability. High heritabilities for functional key traits of algal symbionts, along with their short clonal generation time and high population sizes allow for their rapid thermal adaptation. However, the low overall heritability of coral host traits, along with the corals' long generation time, raise concern about the timely adaptation of the coral-algal symbiosis in the face of continued rapid climate warming.

  2. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2016-06-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate Max-Ent models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. Principal component analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species vs. population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  3. Addressing potential local adaptation in species distribution models: implications for conservation under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hällfors, Maria Helena; Liao, Jishan; Dzurisin, Jason D. K.; Grundel, Ralph; Hyvärinen, Marko; Towle, Kevin; Wu, Grace C.; Hellmann, Jessica J.

    2016-01-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) have been criticized for involving assumptions that ignore or categorize many ecologically relevant factors such as dispersal ability and biotic interactions. Another potential source of model error is the assumption that species are ecologically uniform in their climatic tolerances across their range. Typically, SDMs to treat a species as a single entity, although populations of many species differ due to local adaptation or other genetic differentiation. Not taking local adaptation into account, may lead to incorrect range prediction and therefore misplaced conservation efforts. A constraint is that we often do not know the degree to which populations are locally adapted, however. Lacking experimental evidence, we still can evaluate niche differentiation within a species' range to promote better conservation decisions. We explore possible conservation implications of making type I or type II errors in this context. For each of two species, we construct three separate MaxEnt models, one considering the species as a single population and two of disjunct populations. PCA analyses and response curves indicate different climate characteristics in the current environments of the populations. Model projections into future climates indicate minimal overlap between areas predicted to be climatically suitable by the whole species versus population-based models. We present a workflow for addressing uncertainty surrounding local adaptation in SDM application and illustrate the value of conducting population-based models to compare with whole-species models. These comparisons might result in more cautious management actions when alternative range outcomes are considered.

  4. Climate Change Potential Impacts on the Built Environment and Possible Adaptation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2014-01-01

    The built environment consists of components that exist at a range of scales from small (e.g., houses, shopping malls) to large (e.g., transportation networks) to highly modified landscapes such as cities. Thus, the impacts of climate change on the built environment may have a multitude of effects on humans and the land. The impact of climate change may be exacerbated by the interaction of different events that singly may be minor, but together may have a synergistic set of impacts that are significant. Also, mechanisms may exist wherein the built environment, particularly in the form of cities, may affect weather and the climate on local and regional scales. Hence, a city may be able to cope with prolonged heat waves, but if this is combined with severe drought, the overall result could be significant or even catastrophic, as accelerating demand for energy to cooling taxes water supplies needed both for energy supply and municipal water needs. This presentation surveys potential climate change impacts on the built environment from the perspective of the National Climate Assessment, and explores adaptation measures that can be employed to mitigate these impacts.

  5. Adapting agriculture to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Howden, S.M.; Soussana, J.F.; Tubiello, F.N.; Chhetri, N.; Dunlop, M.; Meinke, H.B.

    2007-01-01

    The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of exi

  6. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    2013-01-01

    . This absence of an agreement calls for adaptation to climate change. Emphasis should be put on buildings, as they play a vital economic and social role in society and are vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, the building stock deserves its own policy and implementation plans as well as tools that enable...... adequate and cost-efficient adaptation to climate change. This paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change adaptation needed. The suggested and presented need of a strategic approach is based...... on three main initiatives consisting of the need to examine the potential impacts of climate change on the building stock, the need to assess and develop a roadmap of current and future adaptation measures that can withstand the effects of climate change, and the need to engage relevant stakeholders...

  7. Big data has big potential for applications to climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ford, James D.; Tilleard, Simon E.; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Araos, Malcolm; Biesbroek, Robbert; Lesnikowski, Alexandra C.; MacDonald, Graham K.; Hsu, Angel; Chen, Chen; Bizikova, Livia

    2016-01-01

    The capacity to collect and analyze massive amounts of data is transforming research in the natural and social sciences (1). And yet, the climate change adaptation community has largely overlooked these developments. Here, we examine how “big data” can inform adaptation research and decision-making

  8. Financing climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens M; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2006-03-01

    This paper examines the topic of financing adaptation in future climate change policies. A major question is whether adaptation in developing countries should be financed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), or whether funding should come from other sources. We present an overview of financial resources and propose the employment of a two-track approach: one track that attempts to secure climate change adaptation funding under the UNFCCC; and a second track that improves mainstreaming of climate risk management in development efforts. Developed countries would need to demonstrate much greater commitment to the funding of adaptation measures if the UNFCCC were to cover a substantial part of the costs. The mainstreaming of climate change adaptation could follow a risk management path, particularly in relation to disaster risk reduction. 'Climate-proofing' of development projects that currently do not consider climate and weather risks could improve their sustainability.

  9. Perceptions of Climate Change and the Potential for Adaptation in a Rural Community in Limpopo Province, South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sejabaledi A. Rankoana

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Perceptions of climate change by rural communities are centered on observations of variations in temperature and rainfall patterns supported by observations and projections on climate alterations in the form of increased temperatures and scarce rainfall by scientists worldwide. The present study documented perceptions of climate variation and the community’s ability to adapt to climate change hazards threatening the production of subsistence crops. Data were collected through interactions with 100 participants. In the study, climate change is explained as variations in temperature and rainfall patterns which resulted in excessive heat, erratic rainfall patterns and drought negatively impacting on subsistence crop production. Community members have the potential to limit the impacts of climate hazards on subsistence crop production. The negative impacts of climate hazards are limited by community members’ indigenous knowledge of rainfall prediction, the seasons, crop diversification and mixed cropping. Mulching and the application of kraal manure improve the soil structure and fertility to reduce crop failure. These adaptation measures are resilient to the negative impact of climate hazards and may be helpful in the development of adaptation policies to assist rural communities vulnerable to climate change hazards.

  10. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-first Century: climate change and impacts scenarios, and potential for adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Sultan

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the 21st century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options difficult. Further efforts are needed to improve modelling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, the response of the

  11. Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

    2016-01-01

    West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such

  12. Climate change refugia as a tool for climate adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change refugia, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change so as to increase persistence of valued physical, ecological, and cultural resources, are considered as potential adaptation options in the face of anthropogenic climate change. In a collaboration ...

  13. Limited potential for adaptation to climate change in a broadly distributed marine crustacean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Morgan W; Sanford, Eric; Grosberg, Richard K

    2012-01-22

    The extent to which acclimation and genetic adaptation might buffer natural populations against climate change is largely unknown. Most models predicting biological responses to environmental change assume that species' climatic envelopes are homogeneous both in space and time. Although recent discussions have questioned this assumption, few empirical studies have characterized intraspecific patterns of genetic variation in traits directly related to environmental tolerance limits. We test the extent of such variation in the broadly distributed tidepool copepod Tigriopus californicus using laboratory rearing and selection experiments to quantify thermal tolerance and scope for adaptation in eight populations spanning more than 17° of latitude. Tigriopus californicus exhibit striking local adaptation to temperature, with less than 1 per cent of the total quantitative variance for thermal tolerance partitioned within populations. Moreover, heat-tolerant phenotypes observed in low-latitude populations cannot be achieved in high-latitude populations, either through acclimation or 10 generations of strong selection. Finally, in four populations there was no increase in thermal tolerance between generations 5 and 10 of selection, suggesting that standing variation had already been depleted. Thus, plasticity and adaptation appear to have limited capacity to buffer these isolated populations against further increases in temperature. Our results suggest that models assuming a uniform climatic envelope may greatly underestimate extinction risk in species with strong local adaptation.

  14. Adapting to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Strzepek, Kenneth; Tarp, Finn

    2011-01-01

    framework that translates atmospheric changes from general circulation model projections into biophysical outcomes via detailed hydrologic, crop, hydropower and infrastructure models. These sector models simulate a historical baseline and four extreme climate change scenarios. Sector results are then passed...... down to a dynamic computable general equilibrium model, which is used to estimate economy-wide impacts on national welfare, as well as the total cost of damages caused by climate change. Potential damages without changes in policy are significant; our discounted estimates range from US2.3 to US2.3toUS7.......4 billion during 2003–2050. Our analysis identifies improved road design and agricultural sector investments as key ‘no-regret’ adaptation measures, alongside intensified efforts to develop a more flexible and resilient society. Our findings also support the need for cooperative river basin management...

  15. Adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Carmin, J.; Tierney, K.; Chu, E.; Hunter, L.M.; Roberts, J.T.; Shi, L.; Dunlap, R.E.; Brulle, R.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation involves major global and societal challenges such as finding adequate and equitable adaptation funding and integrating adaptation and development programs. Current funding is insufficient. Debates between the Global North and South center on how best to allocate the financ

  16. Evaluating the potential for justice in urban climate change adaptation in the U.S.: The role of institutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Global climate change requires that cities adapt to new conditions such as changing precipitation patterns, temperature extremes, and frequency of natural disasters. Adapting cities to climate change will have consequences for urban populations as it requires a reconfiguration of...

  17. The physiology of climate change: how potentials for acclimatization and genetic adaptation will determine 'winners' and 'losers'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somero, G N

    2010-03-15

    Physiological studies can help predict effects of climate change through determining which species currently live closest to their upper thermal tolerance limits, which physiological systems set these limits, and how species differ in acclimatization capacities for modifying their thermal tolerances. Reductionist studies at the molecular level can contribute to this analysis by revealing how much change in sequence is needed to adapt proteins to warmer temperatures--thus providing insights into potential rates of adaptive evolution--and determining how the contents of genomes--protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms--influence capacities for adapting to acute and long-term increases in temperature. Studies of congeneric invertebrates from thermally stressful rocky intertidal habitats have shown that warm-adapted congeners are most susceptible to local extinctions because their acute upper thermal limits (LT(50) values) lie near current thermal maxima and their abilities to increase thermal tolerance through acclimation are limited. Collapse of cardiac function may underlie acute and longer-term thermal limits. Local extinctions from heat death may be offset by in-migration of genetically warm-adapted conspecifics from mid-latitude 'hot spots', where midday low tides in summer select for heat tolerance. A single amino acid replacement is sufficient to adapt a protein to a new thermal range. More challenging to adaptive evolution are lesions in genomes of stenotherms like Antarctic marine ectotherms, which have lost protein-coding genes and gene regulatory mechanisms needed for coping with rising temperature. These extreme stenotherms, along with warm-adapted eurytherms living near their thermal limits, may be the major 'losers' from climate change.

  18. Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hudecz, Adriána

    -operation and research into the common problems of the Northern Periphery. This report is an output of the ROADEX “Implementing Accessibility” project (2009-2012). It gives a summary of the results of research into adaptation measures to combat climate change effects on low volume roads in the Northern Periphery....... The research was carried out between January 2000 and March 2012. One of the biggest challenges that mankind has to face is the prospect of climate change resulting from emissions of greenhouse gases. These gases trap energy in the atmosphere and cause global surface temperatures to rise. This warming in turn...... causes changes in other climatic variables such as rainfall, humidity and wind speed that impact on the functioning of infrastructure such road networks. This paper discusses the climate changes predicted by the world’s meteorological organisations and considers how these may impact on the public...

  19. Strategy for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Torben Valdbjørn

    The absence of a global agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions calls for adaptation to climate change. The associated paper explains the need for climate change adaptation of the building stock and suggests a pattern for a strategic approach to how to reach the climate change...

  20. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reidsma, P.; Ewert, F.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.; Leemans, R.

    2010-01-01

    Climatic conditions and hence climate change influence agriculture. Most studies that addressed the vulnerability of agriculture to climate change have focused on potential impacts without considering adaptation. When adaptation strategies are considered, socio-economic conditions and farm managemen

  1. Population differentiation in a Mediterranean relict shrub: the potential role of local adaptation for coping with climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lázaro-Nogal, Ana; Matesanz, Silvia; Hallik, Lea; Krasnova, Alisa; Traveset, Anna; Valladares, Fernando

    2016-04-01

    Plants can respond to climate change by either migrating, adapting to the new conditions or going extinct. Relict plant species of limited distribution can be especially vulnerable as they are usually composed of small and isolated populations, which may reduce their ability to cope with rapidly changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study was to assess the vulnerability of Cneorum tricoccon L. (Cneoraceae), a Mediterranean relict shrub of limited distribution, to a future drier climate. We evaluated population differentiation in functional traits related to drought tolerance across seven representative populations of the species' range. We measured morphological and physiological traits in both the field and the greenhouse under three water availability levels. Large phenotypic differences among populations were found under field conditions. All populations responded plastically to simulated drought, but they differed in mean trait values as well as in the slope of the phenotypic response. Particularly, dry-edge populations exhibited multiple functional traits that favored drought tolerance, such as more sclerophyllous leaves, strong stomatal control but high photosynthetic rates, which increases water use efficiency (iWUE), and an enhanced ability to accumulate sugars as osmolytes. Although drought decreased RGR in all populations, this reduction was smaller for populations from the dry edge. Our results suggest that dry-edge populations of this relict species are well adapted to drought, which could potentially mitigate the species' extinction risk under drier scenarios. Dry-edge populations not only have a great conservation value but can also change expectations from current species' distribution models.

  2. Funding climate adaptation strategies with climate derivatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Richard Little

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate adaptation requires large capital investments that could be provided not only by traditional sources like governments and banks, but also by derivatives markets. Such markets would allow two parties with different tolerances and expectations about climate risks to transact for their mutual benefit and, in so doing, finance climate adaptation. Here we calculate the price of a derivative called a European put option, based on future sea surface temperature (SST in Tasmania, Australia, with an 18 °C strike threshold. This price represents a quantifiable indicator of climate risk, and forms the basis for aquaculture industries exposed to the risk of higher SST to finance adaptation strategies through the sale of derivative contracts. Such contracts provide a real incentive to parties with different climate outlooks, or risk exposure to take a market assessment of climate change.

  3. Application of the global Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS) mobile apps to land degradation, restoration and climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combatting land degradation, promoting restoration and adapting to climate change all require an understanding of land potential. A global Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS) is being developed that will address many of these limitations using an open source approach designed to allow anyone w...

  4. Evolutionary potential and adaptation of Banksia attenuata (Proteaceae) to climate and fire regime in southwestern Australia, a global biodiversity hotspot

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Tianhua; D’Agui, Haylee; Lim, Sim Lin; Enright, Neal J.; Luo, Yiqi

    2016-05-01

    Substantial climate changes are evident across Australia, with declining rainfall and rising temperature in conjunction with frequent fires. Considerable species loss and range contractions have been predicted; however, our understanding of how genetic variation may promote adaptation in response to climate change remains uncertain. Here we characterized candidate genes associated with rainfall gradients, temperatures, and fire intervals through environmental association analysis. We found that overall population adaptive genetic variation was significantly affected by shortened fire intervals, whereas declining rainfall and rising temperature did not have a detectable influence. Candidate SNPs associated with rainfall and high temperature were diverse, whereas SNPs associated with specific fire intervals were mainly fixed in one allele. Gene annotation further revealed four genes with functions in stress tolerance, the regulation of stomatal opening and closure, energy use, and morphogenesis with adaptation to climate and fire intervals. B. attenuata may tolerate further changes in rainfall and temperature through evolutionary adaptations based on their adaptive genetic variation. However, the capacity to survive future climate change may be compromised by changes in the fire regime.

  5. The potential role of health impact assessment in tackling the complexity of climate change adaptation for health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen L; Proust, Katrina; Spickett, Jeffery; Capon, Anthony

    2011-12-01

    Managing an issue of the magnitude, scope and complexity of climate change is a daunting prospect, yet one which nations around the world must face. Climate change is an issue without boundaries--impacts will cut across administrative and geographical borders and be felt by every sector of society. Responses to climate change will need to employ system approaches that take into account the relationships that cross organisational and sectoral boundaries. Solutions designed in isolation from these interdependencies will be unlikely to succeed, squandering opportunities for long-term effective adaptation. Health Impact Assessment (HIA) provides a structural approach to identify, evaluate and manage health impacts of climate change that is inclusive of a wide range of stakeholders. Climate change will affect decision-making across every government level and sector and the health implications of these decisions can also be addressed with HIA. Given the nature of the issue, HIA of climate change will identify a large number of variables that influence the type and extent of health impacts and the management of these impacts. In order to implement the most effective adaptation measures, it is critica that an understanding of the interactions between these variables is developed. The outcome of HIA of climate change can therefore be strengthened by the introduction of system dynamics tools, such as causal loop diagrams, that are designed to examine interactions between variables and the resulting behaviour of complex systems.

  6. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability:The importance of understanding agriculture as performance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Crane, T.A.; Roncoli, C.; Hoogenboom, G.

    2011-01-01

    Most climate change studies that address potential impacts and potential adaptation strategies are largely based on modelling technologies. While models are useful for visualizing potential future outcomes and evaluating options for potential adaptation, they do not adequately represent and integrat

  7. Turning points in climate change adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saskia Elisabeth. Werners

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Concerned decision makers increasingly pose questions as to whether current management practices are able to cope with climate change and increased climate variability. This signifies a shift in the framing of climate change from asking what its potential impacts are to asking whether it induces policy failure and unacceptable change. In this paper, we explore the background, feasibility, and consequences of this new framing. We focus on the specific situation in which a social-political threshold of concern is likely to be exceeded as a result of climate change, requiring consideration of alternative strategies. Action is imperative when such a situation is conceivable, and at this point climate change becomes particularly relevant to decision makers. We call this situation an "adaptation turning point." The assessment of adaptation turning points converts uncertainty surrounding the extent of a climate impact into a time range over which it is likely that specific thresholds will be exceeded. This can then be used to take adaptive action. Despite the difficulty in identifying adaptation turning points and the relative newness of the approach, experience so far suggests that the assessment generates a meaningful dialogue between stakeholders and scientists. Discussion revolves around the amount of change that is acceptable; how likely it is that unacceptable, or more favorable, conditions will be reached; and the adaptation pathways that need to be considered under these circumstances. Defining and renegotiating policy objectives under climate change are important topics in the governance of adaptation.

  8. Climate variability and change and their potential health effects in small island states: information for adaptation planning in the health sector.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Lewis, Nancy D; Corvalan, Carlos

    2006-12-01

    Small island states are likely the countries most vulnerable to climate variability and longterm climate change. Climate models suggest that small island states will experience warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall, soil moisture budgets, prevailing winds (speed and direction), and patterns of wave action. El Niño events likely will strengthen shortterm and interannual climate variations. In addition, global mean sea level is projected to increase by 0.09-0.88 m by 2100, with variable effects on regional and local sea level. To better understand the potential human health consequences of these projected changes, a series of workshops and a conference organized by the World Health Organization, in partnership with the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme, addressed the following issues: the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive diseases in small island states, the potential future health impacts of climate variability and change, the interventions currently used to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive diseases, additional interventions that are needed to adapt to current and future health impacts, and the health implications of climate variability and change in other sectors. Information on these issues is synthesized and key recommendations are identified for improving the capacity of the health sector to anticipate and prepare for climate variability and change in small island states.

  9. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun Berhane; Prowse, Martin

    Ethiopia is vulnerable to climate change due to its limited development and dependence on agriculture. Social protection schemes like the Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing households’ risk management. This article examines......, they suggest the PSNP may not be helping smallholders diversify income sources in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on smallholders’ adaptation strategies....

  10. Cross-Continental Comparisons of Grain Yields Under Climate Change: Potential for Agricultural Adaptation to Offset Losses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholas, K. A.; Twine, T. E.; Ummenhofer, C. C.; Girvetz, E. H.; Chhetri, N.; McCarthy, H. R.; Xu, H.

    2011-12-01

    Variations in the timing and magnitude of warming and changes in precipitation patterns will have differential effects on the yields of staple grains under climate change. Modeling these changes accurately at the regional scale is important to prioritize adaptation measures to continue to provide food for a growing global population. We used climate projections from five IPCC AR4 CMIP3 climate models (BCCR-BCM2.0, CSIRO-Mk3.5, IPSL-CM4v1, CCSR-MIROC3.2-medres, and NCAR-CCSM3) and three emissions scenarios (B1, A1b, and A2) to obtain a robust estimate of future climate possibilities. Key modeled hydroclimatic variables impacting yield were compared with 20th century observational data to assess the model's representation of the mean state, seasonal cycle, and interannual to decadal variability for four sites located in Iowa, USA; Punjab, India; Free State, South Africa; and the Murray Darling Basin, Australia. We used the process-based model Agro-IBIS to project climate change impacts to annual yield and growing season net primary productivity of maize (USA and India) and winter wheat (South Africa and Australia) in these regions. Changes in productivity at each of the four sites are related to current climate variability and projected changes, taking into account model performance and limiting factors for growth in the different regions. Relative changes in maize/wheat yields in the four regions between three periods (the late 20th and mid- and late-21st century) can be attributed to progressively changing local climate conditions and linked to large-scale circulation changes. For example, India is projected to experience the greatest warming along with a decrease in mean precipitation, which might substantially decrease yields, while under some scenarios of warming and increased mean precipitation, Iowa is predicted to experience yield increases. In addition to mean changes, frequency and magnitude of high- and low-yield years are assessed for the three periods

  11. 2012 NEHA/UL sabbatical report: vulnerability to potential impacts of climate change: adaptation and risk communication strategies for environmental health practitioners in the United Kingdom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratnapradipa, Dhitinut

    2014-04-01

    Climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning have become increasingly important to environmental health practitioners (EHPs). The NEHA/UL Sabbatical Exchange Award allowed me to investigate how EHPs in the UK are incorporating climate change planning and communication strategies into their work. Projected climate change risks in the UK include flooding, extreme heat, water shortages, severe weather, decreased air quality, and changes in vectors. Despite public perception and funding challenges, all the local government representatives with whom I met incorporated climate change risk assessment, adaptation, and mitigation planning into their work. The mandated Community Risk Register serves as a key planning document developed by each local government authority and is a meaningful way to look at potential climate change health risks. Adaptation and sustainability were common threads in my meetings. These often took the form of "going green" with transportation, energy efficiency, conserving resources, and building design because the efforts made sense monetarily as future cost savings. Communication strategies targeted a variety of audiences (EHPs, non-EHP government employees, politicians, and the general public) using a broad range of communication channels (professional training, lobbying, conferences and fairs, publications, print materials, Internet resources, social media, billboards, etc).

  12. Climate Change Adaptation in the Urban Environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL

    2011-01-01

    This overview chapter considers five questions that cut across the four case studies in the section to follow: (1) why are urban environments of particular interest; (2) what does an 'urban environment' mean as a focus for adaptation actions, (3) what do we know about climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation potentials in urban areas; (4) what can we expect in the future with adaptation in urban areas; and (5) what is happening with climate change adaptation in urban areas? After decades of inattention, adaptation to risks and impacts of climate change is now receiving long overdue attention, and it is only natural that a considerable share of this attention is focused on the places where most people live. This section considers climate change adaptation in the urban environment, defined as settings where human populations cluster - generally implying relatively large clusters, but not excluding smaller settlements that operate as coherent geopolitical and economic entities. Consistent with the topic of the book, the emphasis of this overview will be on urban environments in developed countries, but it will also draw on knowledge being developed from urban experiences across the globe.

  13. Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, J E; Rotz, C A

    2013-06-01

    The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quantify GHG emissions and explore climate change mitigation strategies for livestock systems. This paper analyses the limitations and strengths of the different existing approaches for modelling GHG mitigation by considering basic model structures, approaches for simulating GHG emissions from various farm components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services.

  14. The role of social interaction in farmers' climate adaptation choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duinen, van R.; Filatova, T.; Veen, van der A.; Seppelt, R.; Voinov, A.A.; Lange, S.; Bankamp, D.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change might not always occur, with potentially catastrophic results. Success depends on coordinated actions at both governmental and individual levels (public and private adaptation). Even for a “wet” country like the Netherlands, climate change projections show that the frequ

  15. Adapting complex multi-level landscape systems to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koomen, E.; Steingröver, E.G.; Opdam, P.F.M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is becoming a prominent issue in both landscape research and landuse planning. Current research focuses mainly on the description of potential impacts for different societal sectors and in general fails to provide useful information to help define climate adaptation stra

  16. Agriculture in West Africa in the twenty-first century : climate change and impacts scenarios, and potential for adaptation

    OpenAIRE

    Benjamin Sultan; Marco Gaetani

    2016-01-01

    International audience; West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensiv...

  17. Approaching climate-adaptive facades with foldings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sack-Nielsen, Torsten

    2014-01-01

    Buildings are responsible for approximately more than 40% of the worldwide energy consumption . The aim is to bring this amount significantly down. In order to achieve substantially optimized results, new ways of approaching architectural solutions have to be investigated. Recent studies have...... indicated that there is a potential of additionally saving energy by 5-20% through dynamic adaptability of building envelopes to different climatic conditions. Rising demands to user-comfort in buildings and the broad range of climatic situations in the northern countries support this approach. The question...... rises then how actually this dynamic problem of changing climatic conditions can be solved. Static solutions are not capable to respond fully satisfying to the task given. The project ‘responsive foldings’ is carried out in a research-by-design methodology to investigate the potentials of building...

  18. LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

    2013-09-01

    Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

  19. Agricultural adaptation to climate change in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2001-01-01

    This paper presents the study on agriculture adaptation toclimate change by adopting the assumed land use change strategy to resist the water shortage and to build the capacity to adapt the expected climate change in the northern China. The cost-benefit analysis result shows that assumed land use change from high water consuming rice cultivation to other crops is very effective. Over 7 billions m3 of water can be saved. Potential conflicts between different social interest groups, different regions, demand and supply, and present and future interests have been analyzed for to form a policy to implement the adaptation strategy. Trade, usually taken as one of adaptation strategies, was suggested as a policy option for to support land use change, which not only meets the consumption demand, but also, in terms of resources, imports waterresources.

  20. Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E.

    2009-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs...... of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature...... on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing...

  1. Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ziska, Lewis H.; Bunce, James A.; Shimono, Hiroyuki; Gealy, David R.; Baker, Jeffrey T.; Newton, Paul C. D.; Reynolds, Matthew P.; Jagadish, Krishna S. V.; Zhu, Chunwu; Howden, Mark; Wilson, Lloyd T.

    2012-01-01

    Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO2 to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO2 and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO2 responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change. PMID:22874755

  2. Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kates, Robert W; Travis, William R; Wilbanks, Thomas J

    2012-05-08

    All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.

  3. A Decision Tree Analysis to Support Potential Climate Change Adaptations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus Sauvage) Farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, L.A.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Leemans, H.B.J.; Bosma, R.H.; Silva, De S.

    2016-01-01

    This study uses the decision tree framework to analyse possible climate change impact adaptation options for pangasius (Pangasianodon hypopthalmus Sauvage) farming in the Mekong Delta. Here we present the risks for impacts and the farmers' autonomous and planned public adaptation by using primary an

  4. Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concept of refugia has long been studied from theoretical and paleontological perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers have applied the idea to contemporary landscapes to identify climate change ref...

  5. Adaptation to climate change in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Ole; Halsnaes, Kirsten; Olesen, Jørgen E; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2009-05-01

    Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.

  6. Using Uncertain Climate and Development Information in Health Adaptation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Hess, Jeremy J; Isaksen, Tania Busch

    2016-03-01

    To aid health adaptation decision-making, there are increasing efforts to provide climate projections at finer temporal and spatial scales. Relying solely on projected climate changes for longer-term decisions makes the implicit assumption that sources of vulnerability other than climate change will remain the same, which is not very probable. Over longer time horizons, this approach likely over estimates the extent to which climate change could alter the magnitude and pattern of health outcomes, introducing systematic bias into health management decisions. To balance this potential bias, decision-makers also need projections of other drivers of health outcomes that are, like climate change, recognized determinants of some disease burdens. Incorporating projections via an iterative process that allows for regular updates based on new knowledge and experience has the potential to improve the utility of fine-scale climate projections in health system adaptation to climate change.

  7. Understanding Controversies in Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baron, Nina; Petersen, Lars Kjerulf

    2015-01-01

    This article explores the controversies that exist in urban climate change adaptation and how these controversies influence the role of homeowners in urban adaptation planning. A concrete SUDS project in a housing cooperative in Copenhagen has been used as a case study thereby investigating...... on the actor-network inspired theory of “urban green assemblages” we argue that at least three different assemblages can be identified in urban climate change adaptation. Each assemblage frames problems and responses differently, and thereby assigns different types of roles to homeowners. As climate change...... is a problem of unknown character and outcome in the future, we argue that it can be problematic if one way of framing urban climate change adaptation overrules the others. Some understandings of climate problems and adaptation options may become less influential, even though they could contribute to creating...

  8. A Model for Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasqualini, D.; Keating, G. N.

    2009-12-01

    Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy. Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water usage can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. In response to the greenhouse gas emission reductions required by California’s Assembly Bill 32 (2006), Sonoma County has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, including water, energy, and transportation. To assist Sonoma County develop a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal we have developed an integrated assessment model, CLEAR (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency) model. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, the CLEAR model simulates the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. This model enables assessment of these and other components with specific analysis of their coupling and feedbacks because, due to the complex nature of the problem, the interrelated sectors cannot be studied independently. The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities. The model user interfaces helps stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation.

  9. Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooke, Cassandra

    2008-12-01

    The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

  10. Assessing the effectiveness of climate adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, Simon

    2011-10-15

    As governments and other agencies spend more money on adaptation to climate change they want to know that their investments are effective — that adaptation will keep development on track, that there is a fair distribution of costs and benefits, and that climate resilience is being built. But monitoring and evaluating adaptation policy and practice is not easy. Some approaches are unhelpful because they fail to integrate adaptation and development, use purely quantitative methods and do not include the perspectives of climate-vulnerable groups in their assessments. Enabling countries and organisations to effectively evaluate adaptation requires an inclusive approach built on sharing knowledge among all stakeholders — one that can capture behavioural and institutional changes and that answers to the needs of the climate-vulnerable poor.

  11. Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dewulf, A.

    2013-01-01

    The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

  12. The resilience approach to climate adaptation applied for flood risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gersonius, B.

    2012-01-01

    This dissertation presents a potential way forward for adaptation to climate change, termed the resilience approach. This approach takes a dynamic perspective on adaptive processes and the effects of these processes at/across different spatio-temporal scales. Experience is provided with four methods

  13. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  14. NASA Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) Workgroup

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.; Horton, R.

    2011-12-01

    The Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) Workgroup is comprised of NASA Earth scientists, applications researchers and institutional stewards, tasked with assisting the development of Climate Change Adaptation strategies for NASA as a whole as well as at individual Centers. In an Executive Order dated October 5, 2009, titled "Federal Leadership in Environmental, Energy, and Economic Performance" the President mandates that all agencies "evaluate agency climate-change risks and vulnerabilities to manage the effects of climate change on the agency's operations and mission in both the short and long-term." To further these goals, the CASI Workgroup contributes to the scientific advancement of relevant climate and impacts studies at the Center-scale, contributes to a body of knowledge on how to apply Earth science in decision-making and ensures that NASA institutional stewards' decision-making process benefits from the best available scientific information. Climate variability and climate change pose a range of hazards to the NASA Centers located throughout the country. These changing climate hazards may challenge key NASA missions by threatening operations and damaging critical infrastructure. Studying and understanding these hazards are essential to ensuring effective risk management for the centers. By developing climate change adaptation strategies tailored to the specific impacts that are anticipated, NASA decision makers will be able to minimize negative effects of climate and climate change, while leveraging positive outcomes. The NASA CASI Workgroup will perform a variety of tasks including development of climate projections for each Center, inventory of climate and climate impact data and project activities within NASA, assessment of adaption approaches and Center-level planning strategies, recommendations for future research initiatives, and leading of thematic and region-specific workshops.

  15. A roadmap for climate change adaptation in Sweden's forests: addressing wicked problems using adaptive management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rist, L.; Felton, A.; Samuelsson, L.; Marald, E.; Karlsson, B.; Johansson, U.; Rosvall, O.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems. Forests will have to adapt not only to changes in mean climate variables but also to increased climatic variability and altered disturbance regimes. Rates of change will likely exceed many forests capabilities to naturally adapt and many of today's trees will be exposed to the climates of 2090. In Sweden the effects are already being seen and more severe impacts are expected in the future. Exacerbating the challenge posed by climate change, a large proportion of Sweden's forests are, as a consequence of dominant production goals, greatly simplified and thus potentially more vulnerable to the uncertainties and risks associated with climate change. This simplification also confers reduced adaptive capacity to respond to potential impacts. Furthermore, many adaptation measures themselves carry uncertainties and risks. Future changes and effects are thus uncertain, yet forest managers, policymakers, scientists and other stakeholders must act. Strategies that build social and ecological resilience in the face of multiple interacting unknowns and surprises are needed. Adaptive management aims to collect and integrate knowledge about how a managed system is likely to respond to alternative management schemes and changing environmental conditions within a continuous decision process. There have been suggestions that adaptive management is not well suited to the large complex uncertainties associated with climate change and associated adaptation measures. However, more recently it has been suggested that adaptive management can handle such wicked problems, given adequate resources and a suitable breakdown of the targeted uncertainties. Here we test this hypothesis by evaluating how an adaptive management process could be used to manage the uncertainties and risks associated with securing resilient, biodiverse and productive forests in Sweden in the face of climate change. We

  16. Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jude, S R; Drew, G H; Pollard, S J T; Rocks, S A; Jenkinson, K; Lamb, R

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required.

  17. Migration from atolls as climate change adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Birk, Thomas Ladegaard Kümmel; Rasmussen, Kjeld

    2014-01-01

    Adaptive strategies are important for reducing the vulnerability of atoll communities to climate change and sea level rise in both the short and long term. This paper seeks to contribute to the emerging discourse on migration as a form of adaptation to climate change based on empirical studies...... in the two atoll communities, Reef Islands and Ontong Java, which are located in the periphery of Solomon Islands. The paper will outline current migration patterns in the two island groups and discuss how some of this migration may contribute to adaptation to climate change and other stresses. It shows...... in adaptation to climate change in exposed atoll communities, addressing some of the barriers to migration seems logical. This may be done by efforts to stimulate migrant income opportunities, by improving migrant living conditions and by improving the transport services to the islands....

  18. Climate variability and climate change vulnerability and adaptation. Workshop summary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhatti, N.; Cirillo, R.R. [Argonne National Lab., IL (United States); Dixon, R.K. [U.S. Country Studies Program, Washington, DC (United States)] [and others

    1995-12-31

    Representatives from fifteen countries met in Prague, Czech Republic, on September 11-15, 1995, to share results from the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change. The workshop focused on the issues of global climate change and its impacts on various sectors of a national economy. The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC), which has been signed by more than 150 governments worldwide, calls on signatory parties to develop and communicate measures they are implementing to respond to global climate change. An analysis of a country`s vulnerability to changes in the climate helps it identify suitable adaptation measures. These analyses are designed to determine the extent of the impacts of global climate change on sensitive sectors such as agricultural crops, forests, grasslands and livestock, water resources, and coastal areas. Once it is determined how vulnerable a country may be to climate change, it is possible to identify adaptation measures for ameliorating some or all of the effects.The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: The objectives of the vulnerability and adaptation workshop were to: Provide an opportunity for countries to describe their study results; Encourage countries to learn from the experience of the more complete assessments and adjust their studies accordingly; Identify issues and analyses that require further investigation; and Summarize results and experiences for governmental and intergovernmental organizations.

  19. Adapting wheat in Europe for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, M A; Stratonovitch, P; Alghabari, F; Gooding, M J

    2014-05-01

    Increasing cereal yield is needed to meet the projected increased demand for world food supply of about 70% by 2050. Sirius, a process-based model for wheat, was used to estimate yield potential for wheat ideotypes optimized for future climatic projections for ten wheat growing areas of Europe. It was predicted that the detrimental effect of drought stress on yield would be decreased due to enhanced tailoring of phenology to future weather patterns, and due to genetic improvements in the response of photosynthesis and green leaf duration to water shortage. Yield advances could be made through extending maturation and thereby improve resource capture and partitioning. However the model predicted an increase in frequency of heat stress at meiosis and anthesis. Controlled environment experiments quantify the effects of heat and drought at booting and flowering on grain numbers and potential grain size. A current adaptation of wheat to areas of Europe with hotter and drier summers is a quicker maturation which helps to escape from excessive stress, but results in lower yields. To increase yield potential and to respond to climate change, increased tolerance to heat and drought stress should remain priorities for the genetic improvement of wheat.

  20. Smallholder Irrigation and Crop Diversification under Climate Change in sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence and Potential for Simultaneous Food Security, Adaptation, and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naylor, R.; Burney, J. A.; Postel, S.

    2011-12-01

    The poorest populations in sub-Saharan Africa live in rural areas and depend on smallholder agricultural production for their livelihoods. Over 90% of all farmed area in Sub-Saharan Africa is rainfed, with crop production centering on 3-5 months of rainfall. Rapid population growth is reducing land per capita ratios, and low yields for staple crops make food security an increasingly challenging goal. Malnutrition, most noticeable among children, peaks during the dry season. Recent data on aggregate economic growth and investment in Africa hide these patterns of seasonal hunger and income disparity. Perhaps most perversely, smallholder farmers in the dry tropical regions of sub-Saharan Africa are (and will continue to be) some of the earliest and hardest hit by climate change. Our research focuses on the role distributed, small-scale irrigation can play in food security and climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan Africa. As Asia's agricultural success has demonstrated, irrigation, when combined with the availability of inputs (fertilizer) and improved crop varieties, can enable year-round production, growth in rural incomes, and a dramatic reduction in hunger. The situation in Africa is markedly different: agroecological conditions are far more heterogeneous than in Asia and evaporation rates are relatively high; most smallholders lack access to fertilizers; and market integration is constrained by infrastructure, information, and private sector incentives. Yet from a resource perspective, national- and regional-level estimates suggest that Internal Renewable Water Resources (IRWR) are nowhere near fully exploited in Sub-Saharan Africa -- even in the Sudano-Sahel, which is considered to be one of the driest regions of the continent. Irrigation can thus be implemented on a much larger scale sustainably. We will present (a) results from controlled, experimental field studies of solar-powered drip irrigation systems in the rural Sudano-Sahel region of West Africa. We

  1. Forests and climate change: adaptation and mitigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bodegom, van A.J.; Savenije, H.; Wit, de M.

    2009-01-01

    ETFRN news No. 50: Forests and Climate Change: adaptation and mitigation. This newsletter contains interesting materials for those who think about the question how to proceed with forests and climate change after Copenhagen, with or without an agreement. Here below are presented some observations fr

  2. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Tomé, Margarida; Hanewinkel, Marc

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

  3. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    authorities for adoption; • Simulating the effectiveness of the implementation of certain adaptation measures to address climate change impacts on agriculture; • Developing a stakeholder engagement strategy; • Increasing the knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural areas covered by the project, thus enabling well informed decision-making and enhancing readiness for early action in order to address the potential damages and minimize threats posed by climate change; • Developing a framework for mainstreaming agricultural adaptation measures into relevant national and regional policies; • Promoting the replication of the proposed methodology in order to ensure proper coordination of national and regional policies and between authorities.

  4. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Agriculture sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Clements, R.; Quezada, A.; Torres, J. (Practical Action Latin America, Lima (Peru)); Haggar, J. (Univ. of Greenwich, London (United Kingdom))

    2011-08-15

    This guidebook presents a selection of technologies for climate change adaptation in the agriculture sector. A set of 22 adaptation technologies are showcased. These are based primarily on the principles of agroecology, but also include scientific technologies of climate and biological sciences complemented by important sociological and institutional capacity building processes that are required for climate change to function. The technologies cover: 1) Planning for climate change and variability. 2) Sustainable water use and management. 3) Soil management. 4) Sustainable crop management. 5) Sustainable livestock management. 6) Sustainable farming systems. 7) Capacity building and stakeholder organisation. Technologies that tend to homogenise the natural environment and agricultural production have low possibilities of success in environmental stress conditions that are likely to result from climate change. On the other hand, technologies that allow for, and promote diversity are more likely to provide a strategy which strengthens agricultural production in the face of uncertain future climate change scenarios. The 22 technologies showcased in this guidebook have been selected because they facilitate the conservation and restoration of diversity while also providing opportunities for increasing agricultural productivity. Many of these technologies are not new to agricultural production practices, but they are implemented based on the assessment of current and possible future impacts of climate change in a particular location. agroecology is an approach that encompasses concepts of sustainable production and biodiversity promotion and therefore provides a useful framework for identifying and selecting appropriate adaptation technologies for the agriculture sector. The guidebook provides a systematic analysis of the most relevant information available on climate change adaptation technologies in the agriculture sector. It has been compiled based on a literature

  5. Adapting to climate change or to stakeholders?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruggeman, Adriana; Camera, Corrado; Giannakis, Elias; Zoumides, Christos; Eliades, Marinos; Djuma, Hakan

    2015-04-01

    The Tamassos dam protects the Pedieos watershed in Cyprus against floods. The waterbody behind the dam serves as a new biodiversity and recreational resource. Water from the dam is also used for domestic water supply for nearby rural communities. However, this peaceful picture is threatened by climate change. Regional Climate Models indicate a drier and warmer Pedieos watershed in the near future (2020-2050). Interviews and meetings with a wide variety of stakeholders, for the development of a climate change adaptation plan for the Pedieos watershed, has created even more uncertainties than climate change. Environmental-minded stakeholders suggested to demolish the dam and to return the watershed to its natural state and the water to downstream ecosystems. Agricultural producers would also like to see the return of stream flows, such that they can divert or impound the water for groundwater recharge and subsequent irrigation. Community leaders similarly prefer stream flows for the recharge of the alluvial river aquifers, to allow them to abstract more groundwater for community water supply. Downstream authorities have different concerns. Here the usually dry river bed serves as the drainage of the urban agglomeration of the capital of Nicosia; and has been identified as an area of potentially significant flood risk for the European Flood Directive (2007/60/EC). The largest storm event in the upstream area in the recent past occurred in January 1989, before the construction of the dam. The runoff totalled 3.1 million m3 in one day and 4.4 million m3 in two days. Thus, part of the runoff would have flown straight through the spillway of the 2.8 million m3 dam reservoir. Average annual precipitation in the highly sloping, forested upstream area is 500 mm, while stream flows average 4.7 million m3/yr (1981-2001). This results in an average runoff coefficient of 19% for the 45-km2 upstream area. Past observations, climate change projections and hydrologic models

  6. Science of adaptation to climate change and science for adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rob eSwart

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Adaptation to climate change has gained a prominent place next to mitigation on global, national and local policy agendas. However, while an abundance of adaptation strategies, plans and programmes have been developed, progress in turning these into action has been slow. The development of a sound knowledge basis to support adaptation globally is suggested to accelerate progress, but has lagged behind. The emphasis in both current and newly proposed programmes is very much on practice-oriented research with strong stakeholder participation. This paper supports such practice-oriented research, but argues that this is insufficient to support adaptation policy and practice in a productive manner. We argue that there is not only a need for science for adaptation, but also a science of adaptation. The paper argues that participatory, practice-oriented research is indeed essential, but has to be complemented by and connected to more fundamental inquiry and concept development, which takes into account knowledge that has been developed in disciplinary sciences and on issues other than climate change adaptation. At the same time, the level and method of participation in science for adaptation should be determined on the basis of the specific project context and goals. More emphasis on science of adaptation can lead to improved understanding of the conditions for successful science for adaptation.

  7. Lagging adaptation to warming climate in Arabidopsis thaliana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilczek, Amity M.; Cooper, Martha D.; Korves, Tonia M.; Schmitt, Johanna

    2014-01-01

    If climate change outpaces the rate of adaptive evolution within a site, populations previously well adapted to local conditions may decline or disappear, and banked seeds from those populations will be unsuitable for restoring them. However, if such adaptational lag has occurred, immigrants from historically warmer climates will outperform natives and may provide genetic potential for evolutionary rescue. We tested for lagging adaptation to warming climate using banked seeds of the annual weed Arabidopsis thaliana in common garden experiments in four sites across the species’ native European range: Valencia, Spain; Norwich, United Kingdom; Halle, Germany; and Oulu, Finland. Genotypes originating from geographic regions near the planting site had high relative fitness in each site, direct evidence for broad-scale geographic adaptation in this model species. However, genotypes originating in sites historically warmer than the planting site had higher average relative fitness than local genotypes in every site, especially at the northern range limit in Finland. This result suggests that local adaptive optima have shifted rapidly with recent warming across the species’ native range. Climatic optima also differed among seasonal germination cohorts within the Norwich site, suggesting that populations occurring where summer germination is common may have greater evolutionary potential to persist under future warming. If adaptational lag has occurred over just a few decades in banked seeds of an annual species, it may be an important consideration for managing longer-lived species, as well as for attempts to conserve threatened populations through ex situ preservation. PMID:24843140

  8. Adaptation of Asia-Pacific forests to climate change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Guangyu Wang; John L Innes; Tongli Wang; Haijun Kang; Shari Mang; Brianne Riehl; Brad Seely; Shirong Liu; Futao Guo; Qinglin Li

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a threat to the stability and productivity of forest ecosystems throughout the Asia-Pacific region. The loss of forests due to climate-induced stress will have extensive adverse impacts on biodiversity and an array of ecosystem services that are essential for the maintenance of local economies and public health. Despite their importance, there is a lack of decision-support tools required to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on Asia-Pacific ecosystems and economies and to aid in the development of regionally appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. The project Adaptation of Asia-Pacific Forests to Climate Change, summarized herein, aims to address this lack of knowledge and tools and to provide support for regional managers to develop effective policy to increase the adaptive capacity of Asia-Pacific forest ecosystems. This objective has been achieved through the following activities:(1) development of a high-resolution climate downscaling model, ClimateAP, appli-cable to any location in the region; (2) development of climate niche models to evaluate how climate change might affect the distribution of suitable climatic conditions for regionally important tree species;(3) development and application of forest models to assess alternative manage-ment strategies in the context of management objectives and the projected impacts of climate change;(4) evaluation of models to assess forest fire risk and the relationship between forest fire and climate change;(5) development of a technique to assess ecosystem carbon storage using LiDAR; and (6) evaluation of how vegetation dynamics respond to climate change using remote sensing technol-ogy. All project outputs were developed with a focus on communication and extension to facilitate the dissemina-tion of results to regional forest resource managers to support the development of effective mitigation and adaptation policy.

  9. Assessing urban adaptive capacity to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araya-Muñoz, Dahyann; Metzger, Marc J; Stuart, Neil; Wilson, A Meriwether W; Alvarez, Luis

    2016-12-01

    Despite the growing number of studies focusing on urban vulnerability to climate change, adaptive capacity, which is a key component of the IPCC definition of vulnerability, is rarely assessed quantitatively. We examine the capacity of adaptation in the Concepción Metropolitan Area, Chile. A flexible methodology based on spatial fuzzy modelling was developed to standardise and aggregate, through a stepwise approach, seventeen indicators derived from widely available census statistical data into an adaptive capacity index. The results indicate that all the municipalities in the CMA increased their level of adaptive capacity between 1992 and 2002. However, the relative differences between municipalities did not change significantly over the studied timeframe. Fuzzy overlay allowed us to standardise and to effectively aggregate indicators with differing ranges and granularities of attribute values into an overall index. It also provided a conceptually sound and reproducible means of exploring the interplay of many indicators that individually influence adaptive capacity. Furthermore, it captured the complex, aggregated and continued nature of the adaptive capacity, favouring to deal with gaps of data and knowledge associated with the concept of adaptive capacity. The resulting maps can help identify municipalities where adaptive capacity is weak and identify which components of adaptive capacity need strengthening. Identification of these capacity conditions can stimulate dialogue amongst policymakers and stakeholders regarding how to manage urban areas and how to prioritise resources for urban development in ways that can also improve adaptive capacity and thus reduce vulnerability to climate change.

  10. Urban Drainage System Improvement for Climate Change Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narae Kang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Recently, urban areas have experienced frequent, large-scale flooding, a situation that has been aggravated by climate change. This study aims to improve the urban drainage system to facilitate climate change adaptation. A methodology and a series of mitigation strategies are presented to efficiently improve the urban drainage system in light of climate change. In addition, we assess the impact of climate change and predict the scale of potential future flood damage by applying the methodology and mitigation strategies to urban areas. Based on the methodology presented, urban flood prevention measures for Gyeyang-gu (Province, Incheon, Korea, was established. The validity of the proposed alternatives is verified by assessing the economic feasibility of the projects to reduce flood damage. We expect that the methodology presented will aid the decision-making process and assist in the development of reasonable strategies to improve the urban drainage system for adaptation to climate change.

  11. Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2012-07-01

    The Helsinki Metropolitan Area Climate Change Adaptation Strategy has been prepared in close cooperation with the four cities of the metropolitan area (Helsinki, Espoo, Vantaa and Kauniainen), the Helsinki Region Environmental Services Authority HSY and other municipal, regional and state level organisations. In the strategy, strategic starting points and policies with which the metropolitan area prepares for the consequences of climate change, are compiled. The Helsinki Metropolitan Area adaptation strategy concentrates on the adaptation of the built and urban environment to the changing climate. The vision of the strategy is climate proof city - the future is built now. The strategy aims to (1) assess the impacts of climate change in the area, (2) prepare for the impacts of climate change and to extreme weather events and (3) to reduce the vulnerabilities of the area to climate variability and change. The target is to secure the well-being of the citizens and the functioning of the cities also in the changing climate conditions. The preparation of the adaptation strategy started in 2009 by producing the background studies. They include the regional climate and sea level scenarios, modelling of river floods in climate change conditions and a survey of climate change impacts in the region. Also, existing programmes, legislation, research and studies concerning adaptation were collected. The background studies are published in a report titled 'The Helsinki metropolitan area climate is changing - Adaptation strategy background studies' (in Finnish) (HSY 2010). HSY coordinated the strategy preparation. The work was carried out is close cooperation with the experts of the metropolitan area cities, regional emergency services, Ministry of the Environment, Helsinki Region Transport Authority and other regional organisations. The strategy work has had a steering group that consists of representatives of the cities and other central cooperation partners. The

  12. Climate change impacts and adaptations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Tarp, Finn

    2015-01-01

    In this article, we assert that developing countries are much better prepared to undertake negotiations at the Conference of the Parties in Paris (CoP21) as compared to CoP15 in Copenhagen. An important element of this is the accumulation of knowledge with respect to the implications of climate c...

  13. Leadership within regional climate change adaptation networks: the case of climate adaptation officers in Northern Hesse, Germany

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiller, S.J.; Meijerink, S.V.

    2016-01-01

    In the climate adaptation literature, leadership tends to be an understudied factor, although it may be crucial for regional adaptation governance. This article shows how leadership can be usefully conceptualized and operationalized within regional governance networks dealing with climate adaptation

  14. Climate Change Adaptation Challenges and EO Business Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez-Baeza, Ernesto; Mathieu, Pierre-Philippe; Bansal, Rahul; Del Rey, Maria; Mohamed, Ebrahim; Ruiz, Paz; Signes, Marcos

    Climate change is one of the defining challenges of the 21st century, but is no longer a matter of just scientific concern. It encompasses economics, sociology, global politics as well as national and local politics, law, health and environmental security, etc. The challenge of facing the impacts of climate change is often framed in terms of two potential paths that civilization might take: mitigation and adaptation. On the one hand, mitigation involves reducing the magnitude of climate change itself and is composed of emissions reductions and geoengineering. On the other hand and by contrast, adaptation involves efforts to limit our vulnerability to climate change impacts through various measures. It refers to our ability to adjust ourselves to climate change -including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Therefore, we are now faced with a double challenge: next to deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, we also need to adapt to the changing climate conditions. The use of satellites to monitor processes and trends at the global scale is essential in the context of climate change. Earth Observation has the potential to improve our predictive vision and to advance climate models. Space sciences and technologies constitute a significant issue in Education and Public Awareness of Science. Space missions face the probably largest scientific and industrial challenges of humanity. It is thus a fact that space drives innovation in the major breakthrough and cutting edge technological advances of mankind (techniques, processes, new products, … as well as in markets and business models). Technology and innovation is the basis of all space activities. Space agencies offer an entire range of space-related activities - from space science and environmental monitoring to industrial competitiveness and end-user services. More specifically, Earth Observation satellites have a unique

  15. Public perception of climate risk and adaptation in the UK: A review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea L. Taylor

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Like other countries, the United Kingdom faces the unavoidable challenge of adapting to a changing climate. However, public perceptions of the risk posed by climate change and support for adaptation policies vary between countries. This article provides a UK-specific review of climate change beliefs, risk perceptions regarding potential climate change impacts, and attitudes towards climate change adaptation. We report on differences between expert and public conceptualisations of climate change risks. We also examine the effects of psychological distancing, climate change awareness, and hazard experience on both concerns about climate change and perceptions of the weather-related risks posed by climate change. Additionally, we review the effects of emotion, agency, perceived responsibility, place attachment, personal values and uncertainty on the willingness of UK residents to support and engage with climate change adaptation. We outline the implications of these factors for climate risk communication and highlight key areas for future research.

  16. Climate Change Adaptation Actions in Tirana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JAMARBER MALLTEZI

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Tirana has recently experienced changing weather patterns such as rising temperatures and occurrence of extreme weather events. Such events – in combination with a rapid increase of urban areas and impermeable cement covering the natural soil in the city – have caused increased flooding, riverside erosion, delayed traffic, increased spending for cooling during the summer, increased need for health services, and an urgent need to plan the city smartly. Tirana is preparing a set of Climate Change Adaptation Actions in order to manage the posed risks and adapt to climate change. The city administration should integrate climate change adaptation in their management and planning processes. This exercise was prepared by using the Climate Compass tool and included the vulnerability assessment of different sectors in the city, evaluated the risks posed to vulnerable target groups and proposed feasible adaptation options. It outlines mostly actions to be taken to manage risks and build climate resilience across essential public infrastructure and services. Such actions would require better land use planning to maintain – and where possible increase – the natural areas and leave the natural soil undisturbed. Key to success is integrating adaptation concepts into the city planning and development investments. The result is a novel approach and guidance to better integrate adaptation concepts in city planning and new technologies to prevent heat waves, flood risks in the city, etc.Administrators of the Tirana Municipality should keep in mind and integrate the climate change adaptationactions into daily planning and decision making for several sectors including urban planning, transport, public services, water infrastructure, emergency response, etc. in order to ensure sustainable development for the city.

  17. Beyond Brainstorming: Exploring Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, Gregg; Jacobs, Katharine; Buizer, James

    2008-06-01

    Climate Change Adaptation for Water Managers; Oracle, Arizona, 4-5 February 2008; The most visible manifestation of climate change in the American Southwest is its effects on water resources. Since 1999, the region's water supplies and major rivers have been tested by burgeoning population growth and drought. Model projections suggest increasing drought severity and duration due to rising temperatures, increased evapotranspiration, and enhanced atmospheric circulation from the tropics (Hadley circulation).

  18. Migration and adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tacoli, Cecilia

    2007-11-15

    Climate change is having an undeniable impact on many human systems and behaviours, including population mobility. This is hardly surprising: migration is an adaptive response to changes in people's circumstances. Yet environmental factors are not the whole story. Socio-economic, political and cultural factors are also closely linked to population movement, and heavily influence vulnerability to both direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Shifts in migration patterns are a strategy of adaptation to complex transformations, and recognising and accommodating this is key in policies for sustainable development and poverty reduction in the context of growing environmental stress.

  19. Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

    2015-04-01

    A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation

  20. Water Security and Climate Change: The Need for Adaptive Governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuula Honkonen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will bring about unprecedented economic, social and environmental effects, which require both the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to its adverse effects. Water is the main element through which the impacts of climate change will be felt. Climate change results in increased uncertainties, complexities, stress and potential for conflicts within water management, both among and within states. New forms of governance are needed if the world is to respond to the need to adapt to changes in freshwater supply and to manage water security risks. This paper suggests that adaptive governance should to be main-streamed into all water regulation to ensure the availability of and access to safe water resources and to prevent water-related conflicts. The paper discusses the concept of water security in the context of climate change, the threats that climate change poses to water security, and the concept and implications of adaptive governance as a possible solution. The application of adaptive governance requires a certain degree of institutional and normative flexibility, instruments and institutions that can respond and adapt to changes and manage the level of uncertainty associated with the impacts of climate change. The governance institutions, methods and instruments should be responsive to new information and different kinds of uncertainties, while reflecting the vulnerabilities, capacities, needs and priorities of both societies and ecosystems in the face of climate change. Water security risks could be reduced by increased hydrosolidarity among states, which would present the challenges posed by climate change on water governance and security as primarily an opportunity for new forms of cooperation.

  1. Climate Change Adaptation Science Activities at NASA Johnson Space Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanov, William L.; Lulla, Kamlesh

    2012-01-01

    The Johnson Space Center (JSC), located in the southeast metropolitan region of Houston, TX is the prime NASA center for human spaceflight operations and astronaut training, but it also houses the unique collection of returned extraterrestrial samples, including lunar samples from the Apollo missions. The Center's location adjacent to Clear Lake and the Clear Creek watershed, an estuary of Galveston Bay, puts it at direct annual risk from hurricanes, but also from a number of other climate-related hazards including drought, floods, sea level rise, heat waves, and high wind events all assigned Threat Levels of 2 or 3 in the most recent NASA Center Disaster/Risk Matrix produced by the Climate Adaptation Science Investigator Working Group. Based on prior CASI workshops at other NASA centers, it is recognized that JSC is highly vulnerable to climate-change related hazards and has a need for adaptation strategies. We will present an overview of prior CASI-related work at JSC, including publication of a climate change and adaptation informational data brochure, and a Resilience and Adaptation to Climate Risks Workshop that was held at JSC in early March 2012. Major outcomes of that workshop that form a basis for work going forward are 1) a realization that JSC is embedded in a regional environmental and social context, and that potential climate change effects and adaptation strategies will not, and should not, be constrained by the Center fence line; 2) a desire to coordinate data collection and adaptation planning activities with interested stakeholders to form a regional climate change adaptation center that could facilitate interaction with CASI; 3) recognition that there is a wide array of basic data (remotely sensed, in situ, GIS/mapping, and historical) available through JSC and other stakeholders, but this data is not yet centrally accessible for planning purposes.

  2. Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawler, Joshua J

    2009-04-01

    Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

  3. Assessment of governance strategies for climate adaptation in Flanders / Belgium

    OpenAIRE

    Verhofstede, Björn; Leinfelder, Hans; Allaert, Georges

    2010-01-01

    Climate discourse in recent decades has mainly focused on the issue of mitigation. Through a better understanding and assessment of climate challenges, adaptation arises as a complementary strategy to mitigation. Vulnerability in relation to climate change is seen as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Adaptation can influence sensitivity while mitigating impacts on the exposure to climate change. (IPCC, 2007). Adaptation requires space for climate on a local scale and ...

  4. A Meta-Analysis of Urban Climate Change Adaptation Planning in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    The concentration of people, infrastructure, and ecosystem services in urban areas make them prime sites for climate change adaptation. While advances have been made in developing frameworks for adaptation planning and identifying both real and potential barriers to action, empir...

  5. Gaps in agricultural climate adaptation research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Debra

    2016-05-01

    The value of the social sciences to climate change research is well recognized, but notable gaps remain in the literature on adaptation in agriculture. Contributions focus on farmer behaviour, with important research regarding gender, social networks and institutions remaining under-represented.

  6. Ecosystem based approaches to climate adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zandersen, Marianne; Jensen, Anne; Termansen, Mette

    This report analyses the prospects and barriers of applying ecosystem based approaches systematically to climate adaptation in urban areas, taking the case of green roofs in Copenhagen Municipality. It looks at planning aspects of green roofs in Copenhagen as well as citizen views and preferences...

  7. Governance of wicked climate adaptation problems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Dewulf, A.; Breeman, G.E.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change adaptation has been called a “wicked problem par excellence.” Wicked problems are hard to define because ‘the formulation of the problem is the problem; they are considered a symptom of another problem; they are highly resistant to solutions and extremely interconnected with other pro

  8. Hybrid Surface Mesh Adaptation for Climate Modeling

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Ahmed Khamayseh; Valmor de Almeida; Glen Hansen

    2008-01-01

    Solution-driven mesh adaptation is becoming quite popular for spatial error control in the numerical simulation of complex computational physics applications, such as climate modeling. Typically, spatial adaptation is achieved by element subdivision (h adaptation) with a primary goal of resolving the local length scales of interest. A second, lesspopular method of spatial adaptivity is called "mesh motion" (r adaptation); the smooth repositioning of mesh node points aimed at resizing existing elements to capture the local length scales. This paper proposes an adaptation method based on a combination of both element subdivision and node point repositioning (rh adaptation). By combining these two methods using the notion of a mobility function, the proposed approach seeks to increase the flexibility and extensibility of mesh motion algorithms while providing a somewhat smoother transition between refined regions than is pro-duced by element subdivision alone. Further, in an attempt to support the requirements of a very general class of climate simulation applications, the proposed method is de-signed to accommodate unstructured, polygonal mesh topologies in addition to the most popular mesh types.

  9. Integrated Framework for an Urban Climate Adaptation Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Omitaomu, O.; Parish, E. S.; Nugent, P.; Mei, R.; Sylvester, L.; Ernst, K.; Absar, M.

    2015-12-01

    Cities have an opportunity to become more resilient to future climate change through investments made in urban infrastructure today. However, most cities lack access to credible high-resolution climate change projection information needed to assess and address potential vulnerabilities from future climate variability. Therefore, we present an integrated framework for developing an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT). Urban-CAT consists of four modules. Firstly, it provides climate projections at different spatial resolutions for quantifying urban landscape. Secondly, this projected data is combined with socio-economic data using leading and lagging indicators for assessing landscape vulnerability to climate extremes (e.g., urban flooding). Thirdly, a neighborhood scale modeling approach is presented for identifying candidate areas for adaptation strategies (e.g., green infrastructure as an adaptation strategy for urban flooding). Finally, all these capabilities are made available as a web-based tool to support decision-making and communication at the neighborhood and city levels. In this paper, we present some of the methods that drive each of the modules and demo some of the capabilities available to-date using the City of Knoxville in Tennessee as a case study.

  10. A regional approach to climate adaptation in the Nile Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butts, Michael B.; Buontempo, Carlo; Lørup, Jens K.; Williams, Karina; Mathison, Camilla; Jessen, Oluf Z.; Riegels, Niels D.; Glennie, Paul; McSweeney, Carol; Wilson, Mark; Jones, Richard; Seid, Abdulkarim H.

    2016-10-01

    The Nile Basin is one of the most important shared basins in Africa. Managing and developing the water resources within the basin must not only address different water uses but also the trade-off between developments upstream and water use downstream, often between different countries. Furthermore, decision-makers in the region need to evaluate and implement climate adaptation measures. Previous work has shown that the Nile flows can be highly sensitive to climate change and that there is considerable uncertainty in climate projections in the region with no clear consensus as to the direction of change. Modelling current and future changes in river runoff must address a number of challenges; including the large size of the basin, the relative scarcity of data, and the corresponding dramatic variety of climatic conditions and diversity in hydrological characteristics. In this paper, we present a methodology, to support climate adaptation on a regional scale, for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation potential for floods, droughts and water scarcity within the basin.

  11. Technologies for climate change adaptation. Coastal erosion and flooding

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, X. (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Linham, M.M.; Nicholls, R.J. (Univ. of Southampton (United Kingdom))

    2010-11-15

    This guidebook is intended to be a practical tool for use by coastal zone managers in developing countries. The aim is to provide best practice guidance and assist these managers in assessing their evolving adaptation needs and help them to prepare action plans for adapting to climate change in the coastal zone. The guidebook first reviews the main physical and societal impacts of climate change in the coastal zone. It then considers the process of adaptation to erosion and flooding/inundation hazards where major impacts may occur and a range of adaptation technologies are best developed. Thirteen of these adaptation technologies are presented in this guide, representing examples of the protect, accommodate or (planned) retreat approaches to adaptation. While this does not represent an exhaustive list of the adaptation technologies that are available, these technologies are among those most widely used/considered in the coastal zone today. All the technologies considered are relevant to climate change adaptation and collectively, more widespread application is expected in the future under climate change and rising sea levels. For each adaptation technology the following issues are addressed: (1) definition and description; (2) technical advantages and disadvantages; (3) institutional and organisational requirements; (4) potential costs and opportunities; and (5) barriers to implementation; followed by a case study example. We have endeavoured to include developing country examples wherever possible, but as there is less activity and less documentation of developing world projects and some technologies are barely used in the developing world, this is not always possible. Knowledge and capacity building requirements and monitoring technologies are considered and contrasted across all 13 adaptation technologies. Finally, more detailed sources are indicated. Each adaptation technology has widely varying advantages and disadvantages. As such, selection of measures

  12. Unintended outcomes of farmers’ adaptation to climate variability: deforestation and conservation in Calakmul and Maya biosphere reserves

    OpenAIRE

    Claudia Rodriguez-Solorzano

    2014-01-01

    Minimizing the impact of climate change on farmer livelihoods is crucial, but adaptation efforts may have unintended consequences for ecosystems, with potential impacts on farmers' welfare. Unintended outcomes of climate adaptation strategies have been widely discussed, however, empirical exploration has been neglected. Grounded in scholarship on climate adaptation, environmental governance, social–ecological systems, and land-use change, this paper studies whether farmers’ climate adaptation...

  13. Winter wren populations show adaptation to local climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrison, Catriona A; Robinson, Robert A; Pearce-Higgins, James W

    2016-06-01

    Most studies of evolutionary responses to climate change have focused on phenological responses to warming, and provide only weak evidence for evolutionary adaptation. This could be because phenological changes are more weakly linked to fitness than more direct mechanisms of climate change impacts, such as selective mortality during extreme weather events which have immediate fitness consequences for the individuals involved. Studies examining these other mechanisms may be more likely to show evidence for evolutionary adaptation. To test this, we quantify regional population responses of a small resident passerine (winter wren Troglodytes troglodytes) to a measure of winter severity (number of frost days). Annual population growth rate was consistently negatively correlated with this measure, but the point at which different populations achieved stability (λ = 1) varied across regions and was closely correlated with the historic average number of frost days, providing strong evidence for local adaptation. Despite this, regional variation in abundance remained negatively related to the regional mean number of winter frost days, potentially as a result of a time-lag in the rate of evolutionary response to climate change. As expected from Bergmann's rule, individual wrens were heavier in colder regions, suggesting that local adaptation may be mediated through body size. However, there was no evidence for selective mortality of small individuals in cold years, with annual variation in mean body size uncorrelated with the number of winter frost days, so the extent to which local adaptation occurs through changes in body size, or another mechanism remains uncertain.

  14. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Van Aalst, M. [Global Environment Facility Program, The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, World Bank Group, Washington, DC (United States)

    2006-08-15

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under

  15. Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO2e yr-1 while spending 15 per tonne CO2e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5-95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25-0.43 Gt and 11-22 per tonne CO2e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161-74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply

  16. Beyond Reduction: Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Universities and Colleges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owen, Rochelle; Fisher, Erica; McKenzie, Kyle

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to outline a unique six-step process for the inclusion of climate change adaption goals and strategies in a University Climate Change Plan. Design/methodology/approach: A mixed-method approach was used to gather data on campus climate change vulnerabilities and adaption strategies. A literature review…

  17. Climate Change Adaptation Options for the Congo Basin Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Garderen, van L.; Ludwig, F.

    2012-01-01

    During the last decades, the importance and seriousness of climate change and it’s impacts have become more and more understood. The climate is already changing and therefor adaptation to these changes need to be made. Central Africa needs to adapt to climate change just as much as the rest of the w

  18. [Review on farmer's climate change perception and adaptation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Xue-Yan

    2014-08-01

    As the most serious challenge that the humankind is facing, climate change has been strengthened vulnerability in many countries and regions, and how to scientifically adapt to climate change has become the global issue of common concern to the international community today. The impact of climate change on farming people depending on the nature resource is especially remarkable, and understanding farmers' adaptation mechanism and process is very important to effectively make the adaptation policy. As the basis of understanding the human response action, public perception has provided a new perspective to verify the farmers' adaptation mechanism and process about climate change. Based on the recent theoretical and empirical developments of farmers' perception and adaptation, the impact of climate change on the farmers' livelihood was analyzed, and the main adaptation obstacles which the farmers faced in response to climate change were summarized systematically. Then, we analyzed the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation, illuminated the key cognitive elements in the process of the farmers' climate change adaptation and introduced the framework to analyze the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation. At last, this review put forward the key questions which should be considered in study on the relationship between the farmers' climate change perception and adaptation.

  19. Envelope as Climate Negotiator: Evaluating adaptive building envelope's capacity to moderate indoor climate and energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erickson, James

    Through manipulation of adaptable opportunities available within a given environment, individuals become active participants in managing personal comfort requirements, by exercising control over their comfort without the assistance of mechanical heating and cooling systems. Similarly, continuous manipulation of a building skin's form, insulation, porosity, and transmissivity qualities exerts control over the energy exchanged between indoor and outdoor environments. This research uses four adaptive response variables in a modified software algorithm to explore an adaptive building skin's potential in reacting to environmental stimuli with the purpose of minimizing energy use without sacrificing occupant comfort. Results illustrate that significant energy savings can be realized with adaptive envelopes over static building envelopes even under extreme summer and winter climate conditions; that the magnitude of these savings are dependent on climate and orientation; and that occupant thermal comfort can be improved consistently over comfort levels achieved by optimized static building envelopes. The resulting adaptive envelope's unique climate-specific behavior could inform designers in creating an intelligent kinetic aesthetic that helps facilitate adaptability and resiliency in architecture.

  20. Aiding cities in their work on climate change adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, P.

    2013-12-01

    Urban areas around the world are at the frontlines of climate change because of their enormous aggregate populations and because of their vulnerability to multiple climate change stressors. Half of our planet's 7.1 billion inhabitants currently reside in cities with six billion people projected to call cities home by 2050. In the U.S. and much of the rest of the world, cities are warming at twice the rate of the planet. Superimposed on urban climate changes driven by global warming are the regional effects of urban heat domes driven by large differences in land use, building materials, and vegetation between cities and their rural surroundings. In megacities - those with populations exceeding 10 million people - such as Tokyo - urban heat domes can contribute to daytime temperatures that soar to more than 11°C higher than their rural surroundings. In addition, the localized warming can alter patterns of precipitation in metropolitan regions and perhaps even influence the frequency and severity of severe weather. Municipal officials need to accelerate their efforts to prepare and implement climate change adaptation strategies but what are the institutions that can help enable this work? Informal science education centers can play vital roles because they are overwhelmingly in urban settings and because they can act as ';competent outsiders.' They are neither responsible for conducting climate change research nor accountable for implementing public policies to address climate change. They instead can play an essential role of ensuring that solid science informs the formulation of good practices and policies. It is incumbent, therefore, for informal science education centers to accelerate and enhance their abilities to help translate scientific insights into on-the-ground actions. This session will explore the potential roles of informal science education centers to advance climate change adaptation through a review of the urban climate change education initiatives

  1. Everyday realities of climate change adaptation in Mozambique

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Artur, L.; Hilhorst, D.J.M.

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes discourses and practices of flood response and adaptation to climate change in Mozambique. It builds on recent publications on climate change adaptation that suggest that the successes and failures of adaptation highly depend on the cultural and political realms of societal perce

  2. Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. Transportation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-08-01

    A brief summary of research over the past five years in the field of climate change, as it relates to key sectors in Canada, is presented in the report entitled: Climate change impacts and adaptation: a Canadian perspective. The emphasis of this chapter is on transportation, the role of adaptation in reducing vulnerabilities, and capitalizing on potential opportunities. Other sectors, such as fisheries, the coastal zone, tourism and human health might be affected by decisions made with regard to transportation. The areas that seem most vulnerable to climate change in transportation include northern ice roads, Great Lakes shipping, coastal infrastructure threatened by sea-level rise, and infrastructure located on permafrost. Most of the attention has been devoted to infrastructure and operations issues in northern Canada, despite most of the transportation activities taking place in southern Canada. Milder and or shorter winters might lead to savings, but additional knowledge is required before quantitative estimates can be made. The changed frequency of extreme climate events, and or changes in precipitation may influence other weather hazards or inefficiencies. If Canadians are prepared to be proactive, the report indicated that the effects of climate change on transportation may be largely manageable. 77 refs., 2 tabs., 3 figs.

  3. Potential impacts of climatic change upon geographical distributions of birds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Green, Rhys E.

    2006-01-01

    Potential climatic changes of the near future have important characteristics that differentiate them from the largest magnitude and most rapid of climatic changes of the Quaternary. These potential climatic changes are thus a cause for considerable concern in terms of their possible impacts upon...... biodiversity. Birds, in common with other terrestrial organisms, are expected to exhibit one of two general responses to climatic change: they may adapt to the changed conditions without shifting location, or they may show a spatial response, adjusting their geographical distribution in response...... to the changing climate. The Quaternary geological record provides examples of organisms that responded to the climatic fluctuations of that period in each of these ways, but also indicates that the two are not alternative responses but components of the same overall predominantly spatial response. Species unable...

  4. Coastal community resilience in climate adaptation and risk reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Mie; Sørensen, Carlo Sass

    resilience to an undesired extent. In conclusion, the study points to the potential in combining and merging natural and social science approaches for climate adaptation and disaster risk management to strengthen municipal decision-making, allow for better planning measures, and to strengthen community...... the local municipalities to implement additional measures. For the fjord towns of Thyborøn (pop. 2100, located towards the North Sea by the Thyborøn Channel) and Løgstør (pop. 4000, located approximately 80 km east from the North Sea) flood hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments and mapping...... are combined with community resilience studies to provide the corresponding municipalities with a more elaborate knowledge platform for climate adaptation and disaster risk reduction. Community resilience is investigated in four dimensions (information & communication, community competence, social capital...

  5. Southwest regional climate hub and California subsidiary hub assessment of climate change vulnerability and adaptation and mitigation strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report describes the potential vulnerability of specialty crops, field crops, forests, and animal agriculture to climate-driven environmental changes. Here, vulnerability is defined as a function of exposure to climate change effects, sensitivity to these effects, and adaptive capacity. The exp...

  6. Roadmap towards justice in urban climate adaptation research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Linda; Chu, Eric; Anguelovski, Isabelle; Aylett, Alexander; Debats, Jessica; Goh, Kian; Schenk, Todd; Seto, Karen C.; Dodman, David; Roberts, Debra; Roberts, J. Timmons; Vandeveer, Stacy D.

    2016-02-01

    The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21) highlighted the importance of cities to climate action, as well as the unjust burdens borne by the world's most disadvantaged peoples in addressing climate impacts. Few studies have documented the barriers to redressing the drivers of social vulnerability as part of urban local climate change adaptation efforts, or evaluated how emerging adaptation plans impact marginalized groups. Here, we present a roadmap to reorient research on the social dimensions of urban climate adaptation around four issues of equity and justice: (1) broadening participation in adaptation planning; (2) expanding adaptation to rapidly growing cities and those with low financial or institutional capacity; (3) adopting a multilevel and multi-scalar approach to adaptation planning; and (4) integrating justice into infrastructure and urban design processes. Responding to these empirical and theoretical research needs is the first step towards identifying pathways to more transformative adaptation policies.

  7. Regional projections of North Indian climate for adaptation studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathison, Camilla; Wiltshire, Andrew; Dimri, A P; Falloon, Pete; Jacob, Daniela; Kumar, Pankaj; Moors, Eddy; Ridley, Jeff; Siderius, Christian; Stoffel, Markus; Yasunari, T

    2013-12-01

    Adaptation is increasingly important for regions around the world where large changes in climate could have an impact on populations and industry. The Brahmaputra-Ganges catchments have a large population, a main industry of agriculture and a growing hydro-power industry, making the region susceptible to changes in the Indian Summer Monsoon, annually the main water source. The HighNoon project has completed four regional climate model simulations for India and the Himalaya at high resolution (25km) from 1960 to 2100 to provide an ensemble of simulations for the region. In this paper we have assessed the ensemble for these catchments, comparing the simulations with observations, to give credence that the simulations provide a realistic representation of atmospheric processes and therefore future climate. We have illustrated how these simulations could be used to provide information on potential future climate impacts and therefore aid decision-making using climatology and threshold analysis. The ensemble analysis shows an increase in temperature between the baseline (1970-2000) and the 2050s (2040-2070) of between 2 and 4°C and an increase in the number of days with maximum temperatures above 28°C and 35°C. There is less certainty for precipitation and runoff which show considerable variability, even in this relatively small ensemble, spanning zero. The HighNoon ensemble is the most complete data for the region providing useful information on a wide range of variables for the regional climate of the Brahmaputra-Ganges region, however there are processes not yet included in the models that could have an impact on the simulations of future climate. We have discussed these processes and show that the range from the HighNoon ensemble is similar in magnitude to potential changes in projections where these processes are included. Therefore strategies for adaptation must be robust and flexible allowing for advances in the science and natural environmental changes.

  8. Climate change in Germany. Vulnerability and adaption of climate sensitive sectors; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Vulnerabilitaet und Anpassungsstrategien klimasensitiver Systeme

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zebisch, Marc; Grothmann, Torsten; Schroeter, Dagmar; Hasse, Clemens; Fritsch, Uta; Cramer, Wolfgang [Potsdam Institut fuer Klimaforschung, Potsdam (Germany)

    2005-08-15

    The objectives of this study were the following: documentation of existing knowledge on global change (and particularly climate change) in Germany and to analysis of its current and potential future impacts on seven climate-sensitive sectors (water management, agriculture, forestry, biodiversity/nature conservation, health, tourism and transport).; the evaluation of the present degree of adaptation and the adaptive capacity of these climate-sensitive sectors to global change; conclusions on the vulnerability to global change of sectors and regions in Germany by considering potential global change impacts, degrees of adaptation and adaptive capacity; and the discussion of the results of the study with decision-makers from government, administration, economy and society, in order to develop a basis for the development of strategies of adaptation to global change in Germany.

  9. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  10. Research Advances of Impacts of Climate Changes on Crop Climatic Adaptability

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Agriculture received most direct influences from climate changes. Because of climate changes, agricultural climate resources changed and thus influenced climate adaptability of agricultural products. The growth and output of crops were finally affected. The calculation method and application of agricultural products in recent years were summarized. Several questions about the response of agricultural crops to climate elements were proposed for attention.

  11. Knowledge exchange for climate adaptation planning in western North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, Gregg; Orr, Barron

    2015-04-01

    In western North America, the combination of sustained drought, rapid ecosystem changes, and land use changes associated with urban population growth has motivated concern among ecosystem managers about the implications of future climate changes for the landscapes which they manage. Through literature review, surveys, and workshop discussions, we assess the process of moving from concern, to planning, to action, with an emphasis on questions, such as: What are the roles of boundary organizations in facilitating knowledge exchange? Which practices lead to effective interactions between scientists, decision-makers, and knowledge brokers? While there is no "one size fits all" science communication method, the co-production of science and policy by research scientists, science translators, and decision-makers, as co-equals, is a resource intensive, but effective practice for moving adaptation planning forward. Constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong communication links between predictions, impacts and solutions. Resource managers need information on the basics of regional climate variability and global climate change, region-specific projections of climate changes and impacts, frank discussion of uncertainties, and opportunities for candid exploration of these topics with peers and subject experts. Research scientists play critical roles in adaptation planning discussions, because they assist resource managers in clarifying the cascade of interactions leading to potential impacts and, importantly, because decision-makers want to hear the information straight from the scientists conducting the research, which bolsters credibility. We find that uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning. Candid exploration of the array of uncertainties, including those due to modeling, institutional, policy and economic factors, with practitioners, science

  12. Climate Change Adaptation. Challenges and Opportunities for a Smart Urban Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana Galderisi

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is one of the main environmental issues challenging cities in the 21th century. At present, more than half of the world population lives in cities and the latter are responsible for 60% to 80% of global energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG emissions, which are the main causes of the change in climate conditions. In the meantime, they are seriously threatened by the heterogeneous climate-related phenomena, very often exacerbated by the features of the cities themselves. In the last decade, international and European efforts have been mainly focused on mitigation rather than on adaptation strategies. Europe is one of the world leaders in global mitigation policies, while the issue of adaptation has gained growing importance in the last years. As underlined by the EU Strategy on adaptation to climate change, even though climate change mitigation still remains a priority for the global community, large room has to be devoted to adaptation measures, in order to effectively face the unavoidable impacts and related economic, environmental and social costs of climate change (EC, 2013. Thus, measures for adaptation to climate change are receiving an increasing financial support and a growing number of European countries are implementing national and urban adaptation strategies to deal with the actual and potential climate change impacts. According to the above considerations, this paper explores strengths and weaknesses of current adaptation strategies in European cities. First the main suggestions of the European Community to improve urban adaptation to climate change are examined; then, some recent Adaptation Plans are analyzed, in order to highlight challenges and opportunities arising from the adaptation processes at urban level and to explore the potential of Adaptation Plans to promote a smart growth in the European cities.

  13. HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH

  14. Nonhydrostatic adaptive mesh dynamics for multiscale climate models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, W.; Johansen, H.; McCorquodale, P.; Colella, P.; Ullrich, P. A.

    2013-12-01

    Many of the atmospheric phenomena with the greatest potential impact in future warmer climates are inherently multiscale. Such meteorological systems include hurricanes and tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and other types of hydrometeorological extremes. These phenomena are challenging to simulate in conventional climate models due to the relatively coarse uniform model resolutions relative to the native nonhydrostatic scales of the phenomonological dynamics. To enable studies of these systems with sufficient local resolution for the multiscale dynamics yet with sufficient speed for climate-change studies, we have adapted existing adaptive mesh dynamics for the DOE-NSF Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). In this talk, we present an adaptive, conservative finite volume approach for moist non-hydrostatic atmospheric dynamics. The approach is based on the compressible Euler equations on 3D thin spherical shells, where the radial direction is treated implicitly (using a fourth-order Runga-Kutta IMEX scheme) to eliminate time step constraints from vertical acoustic waves. Refinement is performed only in the horizontal directions. The spatial discretization is the equiangular cubed-sphere mapping, with a fourth-order accurate discretization to compute flux averages on faces. By using both space-and time-adaptive mesh refinement, the solver allocates computational effort only where greater accuracy is needed. The resulting method is demonstrated to be fourth-order accurate for model problems, and robust at solution discontinuities and stable for large aspect ratios. We present comparisons using a simplified physics package for dycore comparisons of moist physics. Hadley cell lifting an advected tracer into upper atmosphere, with horizontal adaptivity

  15. Payments for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptation to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel van de Sand

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The concept of payments for ecosystem services (PES has recently emerged as a promising tool for enhancing or safeguarding the provision of ecosystem services (ES. Although the concept has been extensively scrutinized in terms of its potential positive and negative impacts on the poor in developing countries, less attention has been paid to examining the role of PES in the context of adaptation to climate change. PES has some potential to contribute to adaptation to climate change, but there are also risks that it could undermine adaptation efforts. In order to maximize synergies and minimize trade-offs between PES and adaptation, it is important that the conceptual links between both are made explicit. The present article presents the main conceptual links between PES and adaptation to climate change and suggests ways of making PES pro-poor and pro-adaptation. Drawing upon the concepts of vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and socioecological systems, it is suggested that PES can potentially contribute to adaptation in three main ways: through enhancements in the provision of ecosystem services, by enhancing adaptive capacity in the way PES is designed and implemented, and by providing an incentive mechanism to adopt specific measures for adaptation to climate change. Reflecting on the lessons from the PES and poverty literature, the article suggests ways to make PES pro-poor and pro-adaptation and concludes with further research needs in this area.

  16. Selecting downscaled climate projections for water resource impacts and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Hingray, Benoît

    2015-04-01

    Increasingly large ensembles of global and regional climate projections are being produced and delivered to the climate impact community. However, such an enormous amount of information can hardly been dealt with by some impact models due to computational constraints. Strategies for transparently selecting climate projections are therefore urgently needed for informing small-scale impact and adaptation studies and preventing potential pitfalls in interpreting ensemble results from impact models. This work proposes results from a selection approach implemented for an integrated water resource impact and adaptation study in the Durance river basin (Southern French Alps). A large ensemble of 3000 daily transient gridded climate projections was made available for this study. It was built from different runs of 4 ENSEMBLES Stream2 GCMs, statistically downscaled by 3 probabilistic methods based on the K-nearest neighbours resampling approach (Lafaysse et al., 2014). The selection approach considered here exemplifies one of the multiple possible approaches described in a framework for identifying tailored subsets of climate projections for impact and adaptation studies proposed by Vidal & Hingray (2014). It was chosen based on the specificities of both the study objectives and the characteristics of the projection dataset. This selection approach aims at propagating as far as possible the relative contributions of the four different sources of uncertainties considered, namely GCM structure, large-scale natural variability, structure of the downscaling method, and catchment-scale natural variability. Moreover, it took the form of a hierarchical structure to deal with the specific constraints of several types of impact models (hydrological models, irrigation demand models and reservoir management models). The implemented 3-layer selection approach is therefore mainly based on conditioned Latin Hypercube sampling (Christierson et al., 2012). The choice of conditioning

  17. Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roopali Phadke

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The vulnerabilities and health burdens of climate change fall disproportionately upon lower income communities and communities of color. Yet the very groups who are most affected by climate change impacts are least likely to be involved in climate adaptation discussions. These communities face critical barriers to involvement including historical disenfranchisement, as well as a sense that climate change is distant and not personally relevant. Boundary organizations are increasingly playing an important role in bringing science to bear on policy decision-making with respect to climate change adaptation, an issue fraught with political and ideological tensions. Our project aimed to engage underrepresented communities in climate change adaptation decision-making using a neighborhood consensus conference model developed and tested in several diverse districts of Saint Paul, Minnesota. Our partnership, a “linked chain” of boundary organizations, devised a neighborhood consensus conference model to present best-available climate data as tangible, place-based scenarios. In so doing, we made climate change “personal” for those who remain outside of climate change planning discourses and opened an opportunity for them to assess their community’s vulnerabilities and communicate their priorities for public investment. Our neighborhood-based model built trust and social capital with local residents and allowed us to bring new voices into conversations around climate change adaptation concerns and priorities. We believe this work will have a long term impact on local climate adaptation planning decisions.

  18. Climate Changea Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Kenya

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Patrick Mwendwa; Richard A. Giliba

    2012-01-01

    To determine the climate changes that are due to natural variability and those due to human activities is quite challenging, just like delineating the impacts. Moreover, it is equally difficult to ascertain the adaptive strategies for coping with the climate chang- es and in particular for developing countries like Kenya. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are more or less specific to local areas such as observed in Kenyan case. There- fore climate change impacts adaptation strategies are appropriately applicable to a given local perspective. The study investigated the main indicators of climate change and effective adaptive strategies that can be employed in Kenya. Based on online questionnaire survey, the study established unpredictable rainfall patterns as the major indicator of climate change in the country, while water harvesting and change of cropping methods are the best adaptive strategies.

  19. The Nanchang communication about the potential for the implementation of conservation practices for climate change mitigation and adaptation to achieve food security in the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Several recent peer reviewed manuscripts have reported on the great challenges humanity is confronting during the XXI century, including a changing climate, depletion of water resources from groundwater and/or snow caps sources that are needed for agricultural production, deforestation, desertificat...

  20. A risk-based strategy for climate change adaptation in dryland systems based on an understanding of potential production, soil resistance and resilience, and social stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Climate change is expected to increase the intensity and temporal variability of storm events in many areas while reducing their frequency, resulting in increased runoff, and drought frequency and severity. Soil degradation can exacerbate these impacts by reducing both infiltration and plant-availab...

  1. The Guanajuato Communication about the Potential for Implementation of Conservation Practices for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation to Achieve Food Security in Mexico During the 21st Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    The scientific literature reports that climate change will impact weather in North America, with projections for a drier and hotter southeastern United States and northwestern Mexico. The areas of Mexico that are projected to be impacted cover important grain areas of the country. Additionally, seve...

  2. Adaptation to climate change: Legal challenges for protected areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cliquet, An; Backes, Chris; Harris, Jim; Howsam, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Climate change will cause further loss of biodiversity. As negative effects are already taking place, adaptive measures are required to protect biodiversity from the effects of climate change. The EU policy on climate change and biodiversity aims at improving a coherent ecological network in order t

  3. Benefits of interrelationships between climate change mitigation and adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2014-01-01

    and product 2: climate change adaptation. The production possibilities frontier (PPF) summarises the production benefits of the two products. The case study of the paper is the replanting of mangrove forests in the coastal wetland areas of Peam Krasaob Wildlife Sanctuary in Cambodia. The benefits of climate...... benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation are tested under different climate change scenarios, seeing as the impact and frequency of storms can have a significant effect on coastal wetland areas and the replanting of the mangrove forests and therefore also on the joint benefits of climate change...

  4. Thermal tolerances of reef corals in the Gulf: a review of the potential for increasing coral survival and adaptation to climate change through assisted translocation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, Steve L; Riegl, Bernhard M

    2013-07-30

    Corals in the Gulf withstand summer temperatures up to 10 °C higher than corals elsewhere and have recovered from extreme temperature events in 10 years or less. This heat-tolerance of Gulf corals has positive implications for the world's coral populations to adapt to increasing water temperatures. However, survival of Gulf corals has been severely tested by 35-37 °C temperatures five times in the last 15 years, each time causing extensive coral bleaching and mortality. Anticipated future temperature increases may therefore challenge survival of already highly stressed Gulf corals. Previously proposed translocation of Gulf corals to introduce temperature-adapted corals outside of the Gulf is assessed and determined to be problematical, and to be considered a tool of last resort. Coral culture and transplantation within the Gulf is feasible for helping maintain coral species populations and preserving genomes and adaptive capacities of Gulf corals that are endangered by future thermal stress events.

  5. Building resilience: how the urban poor can drive climate adaptation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Swalheim, Sarah; Dodman, David

    2008-11-15

    Adaptation – preparing for and coping with climate impacts – is now a key issue in climate negotiations. This is real progress from a decade ago, when mitigation alone dominated the climate agenda. But adaptation itself needs to move on. The 900 million urban dwellers living in poverty worldwide will likely be among the worst affected by climate change, yet they hardly feature in adaptation policies and practices. These people, most living in the world's poorer countries, urgently need efficient, cost-effective solutions. Community-based adaption is one. Now widely used in rural areas, CBA allows local people to identify and address adaptation issues, building a lasting legacy of skills and ownership. But for CBA to work in urban areas, adaptation funding needs to reach the grassroots organisations and city governments that will initiate and deliver it.

  6. Climate change adaptability of cropping and farming systems for Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justes, Eric; Rossing, Walter; Vermue, Anthony

    Introduction: Prospective studies showed that the European agriculture will be impacted by climate change (CC) with different effects depending on the geographic region. The ERA-Net+ project Climate-CAFE (call of FACCE-JPI) aims to improve the “adaptive capacity” of arable and forage based farming...... systems to CC through a gradient of adaptation strategies. Methods: The adaptation strategies are evaluated at cropping and farming systems as well as regional levels for nine “Adaptation Pilots” along a North-South climate gradient in the EU. Three categories of strategies are evaluated: i) Resistance...... strategies that seek to maintain the status quo through management actions that reduce perturbations due to CC; ii) Resilience strategies requiring systemic adaptation at field and farm level for increasing the adaptive capacity after a climate disturbance; iii) Transformative strategies addressing needs...

  7. Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. de Bruin (Kelly); R.B. Dellink (Rob); A. Ruijs (Arjan); L. Bolwidt; M.W. van Buuren (Arwin); J. Graveland (Jaap); R.S. de Groot; P.J. Kuikman; S. Reinhard; R.P. Roetter (Reimund); V.C. Tassone (Valentina); A.P. Verhagen (Arianne); E.C. van Ierland (Ekko)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and

  8. Responsible Climate Change Adaptation : Exploring, analysing and evaluating public and private responsibilities for urban adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mees, Heleen

    2014-01-01

    Cities are vulnerable to climate change. To deal with climate change, city governments and private actors such as businesses and citizens need to adapt to its effects, such as sea level rise, storm surges, intense rainfall and heatwaves. However, adaptation planning and action is often hampered when

  9. The role of governance in community adaptation to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    The capacity to adapt to challenges such as climate change can be seen as largely determined by socioeconomic context or social vulnerability. This article examines the adaptive capacity of local actors in response to globalization and climate change, asking: how much of the desirable adaptation can be undertaken at a local level, and how much is determined by actors at other levels, for instance, when resource conflicts occur? Drawing on case studies of fishing in northern Norway and north-w...

  10. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed...... on reviewing the current knowledge on risks and vulnerabilities of energy systems and on potential adaptation options. The paper finds that short and longer term action on climate risk management of energy systems strongly depends on: Strengthening the capacity to model and project climate change and its...

  11. Harmonising climate change adaptation and mitigation: The case of tourist resorts in Fiji

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becken, Susanne [Landcare Research, Canterbury (New Zealand)

    2005-12-01

    Tourism in island states is vulnerable to climate change because it may result in detrimental changes in relation to extreme events, sea level rise, transport and communication interruption. This study analyses adaptation to climate change by tourist resorts in Fiji, as well as their potential to reduce climate change through reductions in carbon dioxide emissions. Interviews, site visitations, and an accommodation survey were undertaken. Many operators already prepare for climate-related events and therefore adapt to potential impacts resulting from climate change. Reducing emissions is not important to operators; however, decreasing energy costs for economic reasons is practised. Recommendations for further initiatives are made and synergies between the adaptation and mitigation approaches are explored. (Author)

  12. Climate change and infectious diseases in Australia: future prospects, adaptation options, and research priorities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harley, David; Bi, Peng; Hall, Gillian; Swaminathan, Ashwin; Tong, Shilu; Williams, Craig

    2011-03-01

    Climate change will have significant and diverse impacts on human health. These impacts will include changes in infectious disease incidence. In this article, the authors review the current situation and potential future climate change impacts for respiratory, diarrheal, and vector-borne diseases in Australia. Based on this review, the authors suggest adaptive strategies within the health sector and also recommend future research priorities.

  13. ASR Application in Climate Change Adaptation: The Need, Issues and Research Focus

    Science.gov (United States)

    This presentation will focus on four key points: (a) Aquifer storage and recovery: a long-held practice offering a potential tool for climate change adaptation, (b) The drivers: 1) hydrological perturbations related to climate change, 2) water imbalance in both Qand Vbetween wat...

  14. Conservation strategies to adapt to projected climate change impacts in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    There is potential for climate change to have negative effects on agricultural production via extreme events (Pruski and Nearing, 2002b; Zhang et al., 2012; Walthall 2012), and there is a need to implement conservation practices for climate change adaptation (Delgado et al. 2011; 2013). Recent repo...

  15. 78 FR 65980 - Notice of Availability for Public Review and Comment: Draft EPA Climate Change Adaptation...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-04

    ... AGENCY Notice of Availability for Public Review and Comment: Draft EPA Climate Change Adaptation... have produced draft Climate Change Adaptation Implementation Plans (``Implementation Plans'') that... health and the environment. As EPA articulated in its draft Agency Climate Change Adaptation Plan,...

  16. Adapting to climate change in The Netherlands: an inventory of climate adaptation options and ranking of alternatives

    OpenAIRE

    Bruin,, Henk; Dellink, R.B.; Ruijs, A.J.W.; Bolwidt, L.; Buuren, van, R.; Graveland, J.; Groot, de, T.C.; Kuikman, P. J.; Reinhard, A.J.; R.P. Rötter; Tassone, V.C.; Verhagen, A.; Ierland, van, E.C.

    2009-01-01

    textabstractIn many countries around the world impacts of climate change are assessed and adaptation options identified. We describe an approach for a qualitative and quantitative assessment of adaptation options to respond to climate change in the Netherlands. The study introduces an inventory and ranking of adaptation options based on stakeholder analysis and expert judgement, and presents some estimates of incremental costs and benefits. The qualitative assessment focuses on ranking and pr...

  17. Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  18. Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

  19. Benefits of interrelationships between climate change mitigation and adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

    2014-01-01

    change mitigation will be estimated on the basis of the amount of carbon sequestrated in the replanted area. The benefits of climate change adaptation are the replanted area’s ability to protect the local community from storms and sea level rise, including the co-benefits of enhanced productivity......The paper demonstrates welfare benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation as a joint response to climate changes using the theory of multiple-use forestry or joint production by Vincent and Binkley (1993). The production of two products is considered: product 1: climate change mitigation...... and product 2: climate change adaptation. The production possibilities frontier (PPF) summarises the production benefits of the two products. The case study of the paper is the replanting of mangrove forests in the coastal wetland areas of Peam Krasaob Wildlife Sanctuary in Cambodia. The benefits of climate...

  20. Gauging climate preparedness to inform adaptation needs: local level adaptation in drinking water quality in CA, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekstrom, Julia A; Bedsworth, Louise; Fencl, Amanda

    2017-01-01

    Understanding resource managers' perceptions of climate change, analytic capacity, and current adaptation activities can provide insight into what can help support adaptation processes at the local level. In California, where a major drought currently demonstrates some of the hardships that could be regularly encountered under a changing climate, we present results from a survey of drinking water utilities about the perceived threat, analytic capacity, and adaptation actions related to maintaining water quality in the face of climate change. Among surveyed utilities (n = 259), awareness is high in regard to climate change occurring and its potential impacts on water quality globally, but perceived risk is lower with regard to climate impacts on local drinking water quality. Just over half of surveyed utilities report at least some adaptation activity to date. The top three variables that most strongly correlated with reported adaptation action were (1) perceived risk on global and local water quality, (2) surface water reliance, and (3) provision of other services beyond drinking water. Other tested variables significantly correlated with reported adaptation action were (4) degree of impact from the current drought and (5) communication with climate change experts. Findings highlight that smaller groundwater-reliant utilities may need the most assistance to initiate climate adaptation processes. Trusted information sources most frequently used across respondents were state government agencies, followed by colleagues in the same utilities. The finding that frequently used sources of information are similar across utilities presents a promising opportunity for training and disseminating climate information to assist those systems needing the most support.

  1. Exploring climate change impacts and adaptation options for maize production in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia using different climate change scenarios and crop models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassie, B.T.; Asseng, S.; Rotter, R.P.; Hengsdijk, H.; Ruane, A.C.; Ittersum, van M.K.

    2015-01-01

    Exploring adaptation strategies for different climate change scenarios to support agricultural production and food security is a major concern to vulnerable regions, including Ethiopia. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and explores specific adaptation option

  2. Adaptation pathways of global wheat production: Importance of strategic adaptation to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masutomi, Yuji; Hanasaki, Naota; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Shiogama, Hideo; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro

    2015-09-16

    Agricultural adaptation is necessary to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and to maintain food production. However, few studies have assessed the course of adaptation along with the progress of climate change in each of the current major food producing countries. Adaptation pathways, which describe the temporal sequences of adaptations, are helpful for illustrating the timing and intensity of the adaptation required. Here we present adaptation pathways in the current major wheat-producing countries, based on sequential introduction of the minimum adaptation measures necessary to maintain current wheat yields through the 21st century. We considered two adaptation options: (i) expanding irrigation infrastructure; and (ii) switching crop varieties and developing new heat-tolerant varieties. We find that the adaptation pathways differ markedly among the countries. The adaptation pathways are sensitive to both the climate model uncertainty and natural variability of the climate system, and the degree of sensitivity differs among countries. Finally, the negative impacts of climate change could be moderated by implementing adaptations steadily according to forecasts of the necessary future adaptations, as compared to missing the appropriate timing to implement adaptations.

  3. Climate Analogues for agricultural impact projection and adaptation – a reliability test

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Swen P.M. Bos

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The climate analogue approach is often considered a valuable tool for climate change impact projection and adaptation planning, especially for complex systems that cannot be modelled reliably. Important examples are smallholder farming systems using agroforestry or other mixed-cropping approaches. For the projected climate at a particular site of interest, the analogue approach identifies locations where the current climate is similar to these projected conditions. By comparing baseline-analogue site pairs, information on climate impacts and opportunities for adaptation can be obtained. However, the climate analogue approach is only meaningful, if climate is a dominant driver of differences between baseline and analogue site pairs. For a smallholder farming setting on Mt. Elgon in Kenya, we tested this requirement by comparing yield potentials of maize and coffee (obtained from the IIASA Global Agro-ecological Zones dataset among 50 close analogue sites for different future climate scenarios and models, and by comparing local ecological knowledge and farm characteristics for one baseline-analogue pair.Yield potentials among the 50 closest analogue locations varied strongly within all climate scenarios, hinting at factors other than climate as major drivers of what the analogue approach might interpret as climate effects. However, on average future climatic conditions seemed more favourable to maize and coffee cultivation than current conditions. The detailed site comparison revealed substantial differences between farms in important characteristics, such as farm size and presence of cash crops, casting doubt on the usefulness of the comparison for climate change analysis. Climatic constraints were similar between sites, so that no apparent lessons for adaptation could be derived. Pests and diseases were also similar, indicating that climate change may not lead to strong changes in biotic constraints at the baseline site in the near future. From

  4. Partnering for climate change adaptations by Dutch housing associations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Roders

    2015-06-01

    partnering. These integrated methods aim to involve the construction sector early in the development of plans so that they can contribute their expertise. This creates a more efficient construction and maintenance process and delivers dwellings of higher quality.The housing associations cannot pre-empt all the effects of climate change alone. For adaptation measures at the neighbourhood level, they are dependent on collaboration with other stakeholders such as municipalities, but there are measures that can be applied at the building level, which falls within their range of influence. An example is the application of lighter colours on building façades in order to reflect radiation and reduce the air temperature close to the façades. The hazards of overflowing sewage systems caused by extreme precipitation can be reduced by applying measures to retain water temporarily, such as ‘green roofs’ or to ensure effective drainage such as open pavements. These measures reduce the peak load on the sewage system. Another effective measure is the use of materials that are not negatively affected by water so that if, despite all the precautionary measures, flooding does occur, the consequences would be less severe.Problem formulationThis research assesses the potential of adopting a partnering approach as a governance tool with which to increase the implementation of climate change adaptation measures like those described above. The housing stock owned by Dutch housing associations is taken as a case study. Involving the construction sector through a partnering approach is promising, since construction companies are the ones who carry out the works. Their early commitment reduces the risks of miscommunication or  failure and enhances opportunities for innovative solutions. By doing this, not only do housing associations take responsibility for their actions, but the construction sector as a whole gains more responsibility for solving societal challenges and is enabled to co

  5. Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fleming

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

  6. Two measures of progress in adapting to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kahn, M.E. [Tufts University, Medford, MA (United States)

    2003-12-01

    Adaptation will play a key role in determining the economic and social costs of climate change. One important measure of adaptation is reductions in deaths caused by climate events. This paper uses two new data sets to test the hypothesis that, in recent years, climate events cause fewer deaths than in the past. Using data on deaths caused by natural disasters and data on skin cancer death rates in warmer and cooler US states, this paper reports evidence in favor of the adaptation progress hypothesis. (author)

  7. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-12-01

    complex field of study developed from a rather simple idea. Climate, as described by Harun Rashid and Bimal Paul, can be defined as...Harun Rashid and Bimal Paul, Climate Change in Bangladesh: Confronting Impending Disasters (Lanham, MD: Lexington Books, 2014), 3–4. 43 “Climate...El Nino seasons, the warming trend has continued in a positive 44 Rashid and Paul, Climate Change

  8. Adapting to climate change in China: achievements and challenges

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yin, Yongyuan; Cuccillato, Emanuele; Kelly, Ellen

    2011-11-15

    With millions of people dependent on natural resources and agriculture, China is very vulnerable to climate change. The need to adapt to future changes is gaining importance in the country's political agenda. The government's latest five-year plan, for example, is the first to include a section on adaptation, and the development of a national adaptation strategy is under way. But there are still major gaps in the knowledge and processes required to develop effective adaptation policies at national and local levels. Some of the key challenges include a lack of accurate regional climate models and vulnerability assessments, little integration across sectors and disciplines, and limited stakeholder engagement. The Adapting to Climate Change in China (ACCC) project is focused on these issues and is expected to significantly contribute to developing effective adaptation planning processes.

  9. Global climate change adaptation priorities for biodiversity and food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannah, Lee; Ikegami, Makihiko; Hole, David G; Seo, Changwan; Butchart, Stuart H M; Peterson, A Townsend; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

    2013-01-01

    International policy is placing increasing emphasis on adaptation to climate change, including the allocation of new funds to assist adaptation efforts. Climate change adaptation funding may be most effective where it meets integrated goals, but global geographic priorities based on multiple development and ecological criteria are not well characterized. Here we show that human and natural adaptation needs related to maintaining agricultural productivity and ecosystem integrity intersect in ten major areas globally, providing a coherent set of international priorities for adaptation funding. An additional seven regional areas are identified as worthy of additional study. The priority areas are locations where changes in crop suitability affecting impoverished farmers intersect with changes in ranges of restricted-range species. Agreement among multiple climate models and emissions scenarios suggests that these priorities are robust. Adaptation funding directed to these areas could simultaneously address multiple international policy goals, including poverty reduction, protecting agricultural production and safeguarding ecosystem services.

  10. Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ludwig, F.; Kabat, P.; Schaik, van H.; Valk, van der M.

    2009-01-01

    Today’s climate variability already has a large impact on water supply and protection. Millions of people are affected every year by droughts and floods. Future climate change is likely to make things worse. Many people within the water sector are aware that climate change is affecting water resourc

  11. Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Allison

    2012-01-01

    This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…

  12. Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

    2017-01-01

    The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous

  13. Stimuli for municipal responses to climate adaptation: insights from Philadelphia – an early adapter

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uittenbroek, C.J.; Janssen-Jansen, Leonie; Runhaar, H.A.C.

    2016-01-01

    An in-depth understanding of these stimuli is currently lacking in literature as most research has focussed on overcoming barriers to climate adaptation. The aim of this paper is to identify stimuli for municipal responses to climate adaptation and examine how they influence the governance approach

  14. The economics of optimal adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Callaway, J.M.; Ringius, L.

    2002-07-01

    This paper has set out to provide a consistent theoretical framework for understanding how consumers, producers and factor agents respond to the impacts of climate change, with a primary focus on the production and consumption of, and investment in, market goods and services under competitive conditions. However, we have also pointed out that this theory can be extended to economies where individuals and groups pursue other well-defined objectives, and we have provided some examples that show the consistency in adaptation behaviour between economic terms and those who maximise the objective of household nutrition. We have defined adaptation as the changes that economic agents make in the allocation of resources to consumption, production and investment to offset the effects of weather variability or climate change on their welfare. This definition is broad enough to encompass almost every conceivable kind of adaptation behaviour. Further, we have followed the distinction between adaptation that is autonomous and adaptation actions that are undertaken by governments in the form of adaptation strategies. Autonomous adaptation is adaptation that economic agents will undertake to change, without the assistance of government, to improve their welfare due to incentives that are built into the political economy of a country. Adaptation strategies involve conscious decisions by governments to undertake actions and implement projects to avoid (or benefit from) weather variability and climate change. We show how the extent to which economic activities are adapted to existing climate variability will affect how much autonomous adaptation will need to occur once the pure effect of climate change is taken into account. In this paper we argue that the ability of economic activities to adapt once the pure effect of climate change can be accounted for by the following factors: Presence of well-developed markets for inputs and outputs; Ability and competitiveness to produce

  15. Adaptation to climate change in the Ontario public health sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paterson Jaclyn A

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Climate change is among the major challenges for health this century, and adaptation to manage adverse health outcomes will be unavoidable. The risks in Ontario – Canada’s most populous province – include increasing temperatures, more frequent and intense extreme weather events, and alterations to precipitation regimes. Socio-economic-demographic patterns could magnify the implications climate change has for Ontario, including the presence of rapidly growing vulnerable populations, exacerbation of warming trends by heat-islands in large urban areas, and connectedness to global transportation networks. This study examines climate change adaptation in the public health sector in Ontario using information from interviews with government officials. Methods Fifty-three semi-structured interviews were conducted, four with provincial and federal health officials and 49 with actors in public health and health relevant sectors at the municipal level. We identify adaptation efforts, barriers and opportunities for current and future intervention. Results Results indicate recognition that climate change will affect the health of Ontarians. Health officials are concerned about how a changing climate could exacerbate existing health issues or create new health burdens, specifically extreme heat (71%, severe weather (68% and poor air-quality (57%. Adaptation is currently taking the form of mainstreaming climate change into existing public health programs. While adaptive progress has relied on local leadership, federal support, political will, and inter-agency efforts, a lack of resources constrains the sustainability of long-term adaptation programs and the acquisition of data necessary to support effective policies. Conclusions This study provides a snapshot of climate change adaptation and needs in the public health sector in Ontario. Public health departments will need to capitalize on opportunities to integrate climate change into

  16. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S.

    2016-01-01

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801

  17. Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

    2016-04-21

    Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

  18. Climate change, adaptation and the environment in central Vietnam

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Ole; Casse, Thorkil

    2013-01-01

    There is an urgent need for integrated approaches, such as the building of environmental management into climate change responses, addressing the total impact of livelihood stresses in social vulnerability perspectives, and ensuring that overall adaptation policies adequately address social justice...

  19. Living with climate change: avoiding conflict through adaptation in Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørstad, H.; Webersik, C.

    2015-11-01

    In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change and avoid conflict over the loss of resources. The empirical part of the paper answers the question to what extent local communities in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. Further, it assesses one of Malawi's adaptation projects designed to build resilience to a warmer and more variable climate, and points to some of its limitations. This research shows that not all adaptation strategies are suited to cope with a warmer and more variable climate.

  20. Indonesian National Policy on Adaptation and Mitigation of Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Yun Santoso

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available From its arousal, the issue of climate change or global warming has become a distinct global trend setter in multidisciplinary discussion, including in the law perspective. Within legal discourse, the issue of climate change developed rapidly into several aspect, not only about adaptation nor mitigation, especially since the plurality of moral conviction relevant to the climate change facts. As a global matter, each country has the responsibility to adapt and mitigate with its own character and policy. This normative research aims to explore and describe in brief the Indonesian national policy in climate change adaptation and mitigation. Gradually, the contribution of Indonesia is getting firm and solid to the climate change regime, especially after the Bali Action Plan 2007.

  1. Climate change and eHealth: a promising strategy for health sector mitigation and adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holmner, Asa; Rocklöv, Joacim; Ng, Nawi; Nilsson, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is one of today's most pressing global issues. Policies to guide mitigation and adaptation are needed to avoid the devastating impacts of climate change. The health sector is a significant contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in developed countries, and its climate impact in low-income countries is growing steadily. This paper reviews and discusses the literature regarding health sector mitigation potential, known and hypothetical co-benefits, and the potential of health information technology, such as eHealth, in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The promising role of eHealth as an adaptation strategy to reduce societal vulnerability to climate change, and the link's between mitigation and adaptation, are also discussed. The topic of environmental eHealth has gained little attention to date, despite its potential to contribute to more sustainable and green health care. A growing number of local and global initiatives on 'green information and communication technology (ICT)' are now mentioning eHealth as a promising technology with the potential to reduce emission rates from ICT use. However, the embracing of eHealth is slow because of limitations in technological infrastructure, capacity and political will. Further research on potential emissions reductions and co-benefits with green ICT, in terms of health outcomes and economic effectiveness, would be valuable to guide development and implementation of eHealth in health sector mitigation and adaptation policies.

  2. Climate Literacy and Adaptation Solutions for Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.

    2011-12-01

    Many climate literacy programs and resources are targeted specifically at children and young adults, as part of the concerted effort to improve STEM education in the U.S. This work is extremely important in building a future society that is well prepared to adopt policies promoting climate change resilience. What these climate literacy efforts seldom do, however, is reach the older adult population that is making economic decisions right now (or not, as the case may be) on matters that can be impacted by climate change. The result is a lack of appreciation of "climate intelligence" - information that could be incorporated into the decision-making process, to maximize opportunities, minimize risk, and create a climate-resilient economy. A National Climate Service, akin to the National Weather Service, would help provide legitimacy to the need for climate intelligence, and would certainly also be the first stop for both governments and private sector concerns seeking climate information for operational purposes. However, broader collaboration between the scientific and business communities is also needed, so that they become co-creators of knowledge that is beneficial and informative to all. The stakeholder-driven research that is the focus of NOAA's RISA (Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments) projects is one example of how such collaborations can be developed.

  3. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Stephanie E; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D

    2016-09-07

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will-or should-include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation-cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning-and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning.

  4. The role of economic policy in climate change adaption

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Konrad, Kai A. [Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance, Munich (Germany); Thum, Marcel [Technical Univ. Dresden (Germany). Faculty of Business and Economics

    2012-10-15

    This paper assesses the role of the public sector in adaptation to climate change. We first offer a definition and categorisation of climate change adaptation. We then consider the primary economic principles that can guide the assignment of adaptation tasks to either the private or the public sector, as well as those guiding assignment within the public sector itself. We find that the role of the state in adaptation policy is limited. We identify information policy, the provision of a suitable regulatory framework in some markets, the formation of human capital and policies that foster economic growth and technological and medical knowledge as the main areas in which the public sector has a role in climate change adaptation.

  5. Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paukert, Craig; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

    2016-01-01

    Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

  6. Responsibility for private sector adaptation to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Schneider

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007 indicates that vulnerable industries should adapt to the increasing likelihood of extreme weather events along with slowly shifting mean annual temperatures and precipitation patterns, to prevent major damages or periods of inoperability in the future. Most articles in the literature on business management frame organizational adaptation to climate change as a private action. This makes adaptation the sole responsibility of a company, for its sole benefit, and overlooks the fact that some companies provide critical goods and services such a food, water, electricity, and medical care, that are so vital to society that even a short-term setback in operations could put public security at risk. This raises the following questions: (1 Who is responsible for climate change adaptation by private-sector suppliers of critical infrastructure? (2 How can those who are identified to be responsible, actually be held to assume their responsibility for adapting to climate change? These questions will be addressed through a comprehensive review of the literature on business management, complemented by a review of specialized literature on public management. This review leads to several conclusions. Even though tasks that formerly belonged to the state have been taken over by private companies, the state still holds ultimate responsibility in the event of failure of private-sector owned utilities, insofar as they are "critical infrastructure." Therefore, it remains the state's responsibility to foster adaptation to climate change with appropriate action. In theory, effective ways of assuming this responsibility, while enabling critical infrastructure providers the flexibility adapt to climate change, would be to delegate adaptation to an agency, or to conduct negotiations with stakeholders. In view of this theory, Germany will be used as a case study to demonstrate how private-sector critical infrastructure

  7. Mapping Temperate Vegetation Climate Adaptation Variability Using Normalized Land Surface Phenology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang Liang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate influences geographic differences of vegetation phenology through both contemporary and historical variability. The latter effect is embodied in vegetation heterogeneity underlain by spatially varied genotype and species compositions tied to climatic adaptation. Such long-term climatic effects are difficult to map and therefore often neglected in evaluating spatially explicit phenological responses to climate change. In this study we demonstrate a way to indirectly infer the portion of land surface phenology variation that is potentially contributed by underlying genotypic differences across space. The method undertaken normalized remotely sensed vegetation start-of-season (or greenup onset with a cloned plants-based phenological model. As the geography of phenological model prediction (first leaf represents the instantaneous effect of contemporary climate, the normalized land surface phenology potentially reveals vegetation heterogeneity that is related to climatic adaptation. The study was done at the continental scale for the conterminous U.S., with a focus on the eastern humid temperate domain. Our findings suggest that, in an analogous scenario, if a uniform contemporary climate existed everywhere, spring vegetation greenup would occur earlier in the north than in the south. This is in accordance with known species-level clinal variations—for many temperate plant species, populations adapted to colder climates require less thermal forcing to initiate growth than those in warmer climates. This study, for the first time, shows that such geographic adaption relationships are supported at the ecosystem level. Mapping large-scale vegetation climate adaptation patterns contributes to our ability to better track geographically varied phenological responses to climate change.

  8. Economics of adaptation to climate change; Economie de l'adaptation au changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perthuis, Ch.; Hallegatte, St.; Lecocq, F.

    2010-02-15

    This report proposes a general economic framework for the issue of adaptation to climate change in order to help public and private actors to build up efficient adaptation strategies. It proposes a general definition of adaptation, identifies the major stakes for these strategies, and discusses the assessment of global costs of adaptation to climate change. It discusses the role and modalities of public action and gives some examples of possible adaptation measures in some important sectors (building and town planning, energy and transport infrastructures, water and agriculture, ecosystems, insurance). It examines the regional and national dimensions of adaptation and their relationship, and defines steps for implementing an adaptation strategy. It describes and discusses the use of economic tools in the elaboration of an adaptation strategy, i.e. how to take uncertainties into account, which scenarios to choose, how to use economic calculations to assess adaptation policies

  9. Agriculture in a changing climate: impacts and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reilly, J.; Baethgen, W.; Chege, F.E.; Geijn, van de S.C.; Lin Erda,; Iglesias, A.; Kenny, G.; Patterson, D.; Rogasik, J.; Rötter, R.; Rosenzweig, C.; Sombroek, W.; Westbrook, J.; Bachelet, D.; Brklacich, M.; Dämmgen, U.; Howden, M.

    1996-01-01

    This chapter deals with sensitivities, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of agriculture to climate change. It covers: the direct and indirect effects of changes in climate and atmospheric constituents on crop yield, soils, agricultural pests, and livestock; estimates of yield and production change

  10. Forests and climate change adaptation policies in Cameroon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bele, M.Y.; Somorin, O.A.; Sonwa, D.J.; Nkem, J.N.; Locatelli, B.

    2011-01-01

    Nowadays, adaptation has become a key focus of the scientific and policy-making communities and is a major area of discussion in the multilateral climate change process. As climate change is projected to hit the poorest the hardest, it is especially important for developing countries to pay particul

  11. Mitigation and Adaptation within a Climate Policy Portfolio

    Science.gov (United States)

    An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term ques...

  12. Public health adaptation to climate change in OECD countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine ho

  13. Sharing the burden of financing adaptation to climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dellink, R.; Elzen, M.; Aiking, H.; Bergsma, E.; Berkhout, F.; Dekker, T.; Gupta, J.

    2009-01-01

    Climate change may cause most harm to countries that have historically contributed the least to greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. This paper identifies consequentialist and non-consequentialist ethical principles to guide a fair international burden-sharing scheme of climate change adapt

  14. Europe adapts to climate change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Biesbroek, G. Robbert; Swart, Rob J.; Carter, Timothy R.;

    2010-01-01

    in the wider governance of adaptation differs between countries but clearly benchmarks a new political commitment to adaptation at national policy levels. However, we also find that in most cases approaches for implementing and evaluating the strategies are yet to be defined. The paper concludes that even...

  15. Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

    2014-11-01

    Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

  16. The climate is going drifting off: how adapt?; Un climat a la derive: comment s'adapter?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    This report is studying the extreme meteorological events, the signs of the climatic changes, the vulnerability to these events and the strategies of adaptation. It is concluded by nine proposals. (A.L.B.)

  17. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  18. Public Health Adaptation to Climate Change in OECD Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austin, Stephanie E.; Biesbroek, Robbert; Berrang-Ford, Lea; Ford, James D.; Parker, Stephen; Fleury, Manon D.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a major challenge facing public health. National governments play a key role in public health adaptation to climate change, but there are competing views on what responsibilities and obligations this will—or should—include in different nations. This study aims to: (1) examine how national-level public health adaptation is occurring in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries; (2) examine the roles national governments are taking in public health adaptation; and (3) critically appraise three key governance dimensions of national-level health adaptation—cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning—and identify practical examples suited to different contexts. We systematically reviewed publicly available public health adaptation to climate change documents and webpages by national governments in ten OECD countries using systematic web searches, assessment of self-reporting, and content analysis. Our findings suggest national governments are primarily addressing infectious disease and heat-related risks posed by climate change, typically emphasizing capacity building or information-based groundwork initiatives. We find national governments are taking a variety of approaches to public health adaptation to climate change that do not follow expected convergence and divergence by governance structure. We discuss practical options for incorporating cross-sectoral collaboration, vertical coordination and national health adaptation planning into a variety of contexts and identify leaders national governments can look to to inform their public health adaptation planning. Following the adoption of the Paris Agreement and subsequent increased momentum for adaptation, research tracking adaptation is needed to define what health adaptation looks like in practice, reveal insights that can be taken up across states and sectors, and ensure policy orientated learning. PMID:27618074

  19. The role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, Sander; Stiller, Sabina; Keskitalo, E.C.H.; Scholten, Peter; Smits, Robert; Lamoen, van Frank

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to better understand the role of leadership in regional climate change adaptation. We first present a framework, which distinguishes five functions of leadership within inter-organizational networks: the connective, enabling, adaptive, political–administrative and dissemination fu

  20. Explaining and overcoming barriers to climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eisenack, K.; Moser, S.C.; Hoffmann, E.; Klein, R.J.T.; Oberlack, C.; Pechan, A.; Rotter, M.; Termeer, C.J.A.M.

    2014-01-01

    The concept of barriers is increasingly used to describe the obstacles that hinder the planning and implementation of climate change adaptation. The growing literature on barriers to adaptation reveals not only commonly reported barriers, but also conflicting evidence, and few explanations of why ba

  1. On the nature of barriers to climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biesbroek, G.R.; Klostermann, J.E.M.; Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Kabat, P.

    2013-01-01

    Considerable barriers can emerge in developing and implementing climate change adaptation strategies. Understanding the nature of barriers to adaptation is important so as to find strategic ways of dealing with them. However, our current understanding is limited and highly fragmented across the acad

  2. Limits to health adaptation in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2015-12-01

    Introduction: Because the health risks of climate variability and change are not new, it has been assumed that health systems have the capacity, experience, and tools to effectively adapt to changing burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes with additional climate change. However, as illustrated in the Ebola crisis, health systems in many low-income countries have insufficient capacity to manage current health burdens. These countries also are those most vulnerable to climate change, including changes in food and water safety and security, increases in extreme weather and climate events, and increases in the geographic range, incidence, and seasonality of a variety of infectious diseases. The extent to which they might be able to keep pace with projected risks depends on assumptions of the sustainability of development pathways. At the same time, the magnitude and pattern of climate change will depend on greenhouse gas emission pathways. Methods: Review of the success of health adaptation projects and expert judgment assessment of the degree to which adaptation efforts will be able to keep pace with projected changes in climate variability and change. Results: Health adaptation can reduce the current and projected burdens of climate-sensitive health outcomes over the short term in many countries, but the extent to which it could do so past mid-century will depend on emission and development pathways. Under high emission scenarios, climate change will be rapid and extensive, leading to fundamental shifts in the burden of climate-sensitive health outcomes that will challenging for many countries to manage. Sustainable development pathways could delay but not eliminate associated health burdens. Conclusions: To prepare for and cope with the Anthropocene, health systems need additional adaptation policies and measures to develop more robust health systems, and need to advocate for rapid and significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

  3. Climate-smart conservation: putting adaption principles into practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, Bruce A.; Glick, Patty; Edelson, Naomi; Staudt, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    Climate change already is having significant impacts on the nation’s species and ecosystems, and these effects are projected to increase considerably over time. As a result, climate change is now a primary lens through which conservation and natural resource management must be viewed. How should we prepare for and respond to the impacts of climate change on wildlife and their habitats? What should we be doing differently in light of these climatic shifts, and what actions continue to make sense? Climate-Smart Conservation: Putting Adaptation Principles into Practice offers guidance for designing and carrying out conservation in the face of a rapidly changing climate. Addressing the growing threats brought about or accentuated by rapid climate change requires a fundamental shift in the practice of natural resource management and conservation. Traditionally, conservationists have focused their efforts on protecting and managing systems to maintain their current state, or to restore degraded systems back to a historical state regarded as more desirable. Conservation planners and practitioners will need to adopt forward-looking goals and implement strategies specifically designed to prepare for and adjust to current and future climatic changes, and the associated impacts on natural systems and human communities—an emerging discipline known as climate change adaptation. The field of climate change adaptation is still in its infancy. Although there is increasing attention focused on the subject, much of the guidance developed to date has been general in nature, concentrating on high-level principles rather than specific actions. It is against this backdrop that this guide was prepared as a means for helping put adaptation principles into practice, and for moving adaptation from planning to action.

  4. Australia's dengue risk driven by human adaptation to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel W Beebe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region's urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Having collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegypti's distribution under today's climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is mediated more by human activity than by climate. Synthesis of this data with dengue transmission climate limits in Australia derived from historical dengue epidemics suggested that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks in Australia could result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti which would present a risk of dengue transmission in most major cities during their warm summer months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the debate of the role climate change will play in the future range of dengue in Australia, we conclude that the increased risk of an Ae. aegypti range expansion in Australia would be due not directly to climate change but rather to human adaptation to the current and forecasted regional drying

  5. Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Jill A; Miller, Joshua M

    2016-02-01

    Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species' and populations' ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species' ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced-generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate.

  6. Adapting Scotland’s forests to climate change using an action expiration chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petr, M.; Boerboom, L. G. J.; Ray, D.; van der Veen, A.

    2015-10-01

    The inherent uncertainty of climate change impacts is one of the main challenges for adaptation in environmental management. The lack of knowledge about climate impacts on ecosystem services at high spatial and temporal resolution limits when and what adaptation measures should be taken. We addressed these limits by assessing four ecosystem services—forest production, tree growth, sequestered carbon, and tourism potential—under drought or climate change. To support adaptation, we adapted the existing concept of ‘dynamic adaptive policy pathways’ for forest management by developing an action expiration chart, which helps to define expiry dates for forestry actions using ecosystem services delivery thresholds. We assessed services for Sitka spruce, Scots pine, and pedunculate oak on the National Forest Estate in Scotland for the next 80 years using probabilistic climate change data from the UKCP09 weather generator. Findings showed that drought would have an overall long-term negative impact on the provision of three services with a decrease up to 41%, whereas climate change has a positive impact on tourism potential with up to five times higher frequency of good climate conditions during summer months. Furthermore, the results highlighted when forestry actions, mainly in the lowlands, will reach their environmental limits during the next 80 years. Our findings reduce knowledge uncertainty and highlight when and where adaptation should be implemented to ensure the provision of future forest ecosystem services in Scotland.

  7. Relating farmer's perceptions of climate change risk to adaptation behaviour in Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Sen; Juhász-Horváth, Linda; Harrison, Paula A; Pintér, László; Rounsevell, Mark D A

    2016-10-28

    Understanding how farmers perceive climate change risks and how this affects their willingness to adopt adaptation practices is critical for developing effective climate change response strategies for the agricultural sector. This study examines (i) the perceptual relationships between farmers' awareness of climate change phenomena, beliefs in climate change risks and actual adaptation behaviour, and (ii) how these relationships may be modified by farm-level antecedents related to human, social, financial capitals and farm characteristics. An extensive household survey was designed to investigate the current pattern of adaptation strategies and collect data on these perceptual variables and their potential antecedents from private landowners in Veszprém and Tolna counties, Hungary. Path analysis was used to explore the causal connections between variables. We found that belief in the risk of climate change was heightened by an increased awareness of directly observable climate change phenomena (i.e. water shortages and extreme weather events). The awareness of extreme weather events was a significant driver of adaptation behaviour. Farmers' actual adaptation behaviour was primarily driven by financial motives and managerial considerations (i.e. the aim of improving profit and product sales; gaining farm ownership and the amount of land managed; and, the existence of a successor), and stimulated by an innovative personality and the availability of information from socio-agricultural networks. These results enrich the empirical evidence in support of improving understanding of farmer decision-making processes, which is critical in developing well-targeted adaptation policies.

  8. Technologies for climate change adaptation. The water sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lopez, T. De (ed.) (UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark)); Elliott, M.; Armstrong, A.; Lobuglio, J.; Bartram, J. (The Water Institute at the Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC (United States))

    2011-04-15

    This guidebook aims to provide expert information on the technologies most relevant for climate change adaptation in the water sector in developing countries. It is meant to be a practical tool for use by a broad range of stakeholders, including those in governmental agencies, water utilities, community water boards, non-governmental organizations, and private sector companies. Adaptation is an essential element of human response to climate change. The adverse impacts of climate change on the water sector will be experienced worldwide and are often projected to be most severe in resource-poor countries. Therefore, it is necessary to have access to a diverse array of adaptation technologies and practices that are appropriate and affordable in various contexts. The scale of these adaptation technologies/practices should range from the individual household level (e.g. household water treatment), to the community scale (e.g. rainwater collection in small reservoirs), to large facilities that can benefit a city or region (e.g. a desalination plant). The guidebook first reviews the projected impacts of climate change on the water sector. It then addresses the role of adaptation in the water sector and six typologies under which available strategies are categorized. Eleven technologies and practices are given detailed treatment in this guidebook and four others are covered briefly. While these do not constitute all of the adaptation technologies available in the water sector, they do represent many of the most important adaptation technologies for developing countries. For each of the 11 adaptation technologies and practices, the following are addressed: basic description, contribution to climate change and development, institutional and capacity building requirements, costs, barriers and opportunities for implementation, and extensive reference to external resources and case studies. The practical steps and appropriate contexts for implementation are covered in the

  9. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

    2013-10-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

  10. Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

    2013-01-01

    Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

  11. Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

    2015-12-01

    Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

  12. Adaptation: The complexity of climate justice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sovacool, Benjamin K.

    2013-11-01

    The effects of climate change on vulnerable communities raise ethical concerns about who should help them cope and how. Research suggests that fair and beneficial solutions are possible, but they always come with risks.

  13. Costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom [Global Climate Adaptation Partnership (United Kingdom); Dysznski, Jillian [Stockholm Environment Institute (Sweden); Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtenay Cabot

    2011-11-15

    Climate change poses a major challenge to agriculture. Rising temperatures will change crop growing seasons. And changing rainfall patterns will affect yield potentials. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has left the agricultural sector in many developing countries ill-prepared for the changes ahead. Policymakers and researchers alike acknowledge the need for adaptation within agriculture. But what action should be taken? And, more importantly, how much will it cost? Five case studies — of specific agricultural systems in Bangladesh, Malawi, Nepal, Rwanda and Tanzania — provide fresh insights into the options available and likely costs, which are at least US$20,000 for an integrated cropping system in a village, and may well be more than US$100 million for a whole sector such as livestock in a country.

  14. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future risks based on projections of climate change and city development. Furthermore, this framework can be utilized to identify cost-effective measures that can reduce the overall flood risk to an acceptable level considering both costs and benefits of adaptation. The framework is mainly based on a utilitarian approach that studies urban drainage adaptation solutions from a socio-economic point of view. The methodologies involve the state-of-the-art flood inundation modelling, risk assessment tools, socio-economic analysis tools, city planning, and uncertainty analysis. The thesis has explored several limitations of the current design practice of urban drainage. To further supplement and develop the common practice, a systemic and integrated framework is proposed by incorporating three research areas: (i) risk-based economic approaches for assessment of climate adaptation design, (ii) uncertainty analysis of climate adaptation assessment and (iii) reframing the assessment approaches by incorporating additional benefits and costs of adaptation alternatives. To strategically provide a functional performance of urban drainage systems, a risk-based economic approach is developed to take into account the impacts of all probable floods in terms of their probabilities and consequences (e.g. extents of floods, costing of damage). It is found that this approach contributes to a better understanding of the contributions of different return periods/flood events to the overall risk under both current and future climatic conditions and therefore can be used as guidance for further

  15. Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Planning in African Cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud; Herslund, Lise Byskov; Lund, Dorthe Hedensted

    2014-01-01

    beginning to be aware of the task, and some time will pass before it is integrated into mainstream urban governance. This chapter is based on work in progress. It covers urban governance and planning aspects of climate change adaptation as studied in the CLUVA project (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability......Resilience of urban structures towards impacts of a changing climate is one of the emerging tasks that cities all over the world are facing at present. Effects of climate change take many forms, depending on local climate, spatial patterns, and socioeconomic structures. Cities are only just...... in Africa), as well as some experiences from Denmark. Focus is on the responses and capacities of urban authorities, strengths and weaknesses of the efforts, data needs and possible ways forward. The chapter concludes that many adaptation activities are taking place in the CLUVA case cities...

  16. Development of Climate Change Adaptation Platform using Spatial Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J.; Oh, K. Y.; Lee, M. J.; Han, W. J.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change adaptation has attracted growing attention with the recent extreme weather conditions that affect people around the world. More and more countries, including the Republic of Korea, have begun to hatch adaptation plan to resolve these matters of great concern. They all, meanwhile, have mentioned that it should come first to integrate climate information in all analysed areas. That's because climate information is not independently made through one source; that is to say, the climate information is connected one another in a complicated way. That is the reason why we have to promote integrated climate change adaptation platform before setting up climate change adaptation plan. Therefore, the large-scaled project has been actively launched and worked on. To date, we researched 620 literatures and interviewed 51 government organizations. Based on the results of the researches and interviews, we obtained 2,725 impacts about vulnerability assessment information such as Monitoring and Forecasting, Health, Disaster, Agriculture, Forest, Water Management, Ecosystem, Ocean/Fisheries, Industry/Energy. Among 2,725 impacts, 995 impacts are made into a database until now. This database is made up 3 sub categories like Climate-Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, presented by IPCC. Based on the constructed database, vulnerability assessments were carried out in order to evaluate climate change capacity of local governments all over the country. These assessments were conducted by using web-based vulnerability assessment tool which was newly developed through this project. These results have shown that, metropolitan areas like Seoul, Pusan, Inchon, and so on have high risks more than twice than rural areas. Acknowledgements: The authors appreciate the support that this study has received from "Development of integrated model for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment and strengthening the framework for model implementation ", an initiative of the

  17. Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

    2016-10-01

    Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

  18. 76 FR 12945 - Instructions for Implementing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Accordance With Executive...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-09

    ... QUALITY Instructions for Implementing Climate Change Adaptation Planning in Accordance With Executive... (CEQ) is issuing instructions to Federal agencies for integrating climate change adaptation into agency... instructions to implement the Executive Order. The Instructions for Implementing Climate Change...

  19. Climate Change and Water in Vulnerable Agriculture: Impacts - Mitigation - Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalezios, Nicolas; Tarquis, Ana Maria

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture highly depends on climate and is adversely affected by climate extremes caused mainly by anthropogenic climate change and increasing climate variability. Moreover, agricultural production risks and vulnerability of agriculture may become an issue in several regions around the world, since they are likely to increase the incidence of crop failure. The aim of this paper is to present the water availability and requirements in Southern Europe and specifically in the Mediterranean region, which is characterized by vulnerable agriculture. Indeed, the climatic trend in the 21st century for this region indicates temperature increase, precipitation decrease combined with an increase in the frequency of climate extremes, such as droughts, heat waves and forest fires. The three major components of climate change are examined, namely impacts, mitigation and adaptation. In particular, precipitation frequency analysis has already indicated a reduction in the precipitation amounts and a shift towards more intense rainstorms. Moreover, time series of drought indices are presented in affected areas. The importance of climate change mitigation measures is also highlighted. Finally, an adaptation scheme for agriculture from climate change in vulnerable and water scarce areas is presented.

  20. Simulating adaptive wood harvest in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Nabel, Julia; Pongratz, Julia

    2016-04-01

    The world's forest experience substantial carbon exchange fluxes between land and atmosphere. Large carbon sinks occur in response to changes in environmental conditions (such as climate change and increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations), removing about one quarter of current anthropogenic CO2-emissions. Large sinks also occur due to regrowth of forest on areas of agricultural abandonment or forest management. Forest management, on the other hand, also leads to substantial amounts of carbon being eventually released to the atmosphere. Both sinks and sources attributable to forests are therefore dependent on the intensity of management. Forest management in turn depends on the availability of resources, which is influenced by environmental conditions and sustainability of management systems applied. Estimating future carbon fluxes therefore requires accounting for the interaction of environmental conditions, forest growth, and management. However, this interaction is not fully captured by current modeling approaches: Earth system models depict in detail interactions between climate, the carbon cycle, and vegetation growth, but use prescribed information on management. Resource needs and land management, however, are simulated by Integrated Assessment Models that typically only have coarse representations of the influence of environmental changes on vegetation growth and are typically based on the demand for wood driven by regional population growth and energy needs. Here we present a study that provides the link between environmental conditions, forest growth and management. We extend the land component JSBACH of the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model (MPI-ESM) to simulate potential wood harvest in response to altered growth conditions and thus as adaptive to changing climate and CO2 conditions. We apply the altered model to estimate potential wood harvest for future climates (representative concentration pathways, RCPs) for the management scenario of

  1. Adaptation responses of crops to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seino, Hiroshi [National Inst. of Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    Appreciable global climatic responses to increasing levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} and other trace gases are expected to take place over the next 50 to 80 years. Increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing or will produce changes in the climate of the Earth. In particular, numerous efforts of climate modeling project very substantial increase of surface air temperature. In addition to a general warming of the atmosphere, the possibility of increased summer dryness in the continental mid-latitudes has been suggested on the basis of both historical analogues and some General Circulation Model (GCM) studies. There are three types of effect of climatic change on agriculture: (1) the physiological (direct) effect of elevated levels of atmospheric CO{sub 2} on crop plants and weeds, (2) the effect of changes in parameters of climate (e.g., temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) on plants and animals, and (3) the effects of climate-related rises in sea-level on land use. The direct effects of elevated CO{sub 2} are on photosynthesis and respiration and thereby on growth, and there are additional effects of increased CO{sub 2} on development, yield quality and stomatal aperture and water use. A doubling of CO{sub 2} increases the instantaneous photosynthetic rate by 30% to 100%, depending on the other environmental conditions, and reduce water requirements of plants by reducing transpiration (per unit leaf area) through reductions in stomatal aperture. A doubling of CO{sub 2} causes partial stomatal closure on both C{sub 3} and C{sub 4} plants (approximately a 40% decrease in aperture). In many experiments this results in reductions of transpiration of about 23% to 46%. However. there is considerable uncertainty over the magnitude of this in natural conditions.

  2. A Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for Management of ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sea level rise is causing shoreline erosion, increased coastal flooding, and marsh vulnerability to the impact of storms. Coastal marshes provide flood abatement, carbon and nutrient sequestration, water quality maintenance, and habitat for fish, shellfish, and wildlife, including species of concern, such as the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus). We present a climate change adaptation strategy (CCAS) adopted by scientific, management, and policy stakeholders for managing coastal marshes and enhancing system resiliency. A common adaptive management approach previously used for restoration projects was modified to identify climate-related vulnerabilities and plan climate change adaptive actions. As an example of implementation of the CCAS, we describe the stakeholder plans and management actions the US Fish and Wildlife Service and partners developed to build coastal resiliency in the Narrow River Estuary, RI, in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy. When possible, an experimental BACI (before-after, control-impact) design, described as pre- and post-sampling at the impact site and one or more control sites, was incorporated into the climate change adaptation and implementation plans. Specific climate change adaptive actions and monitoring plans are described and include shoreline stabilization, restoring marsh drainage, increasing marsh elevation, and enabling upland marsh migration. The CCAS provides a framework and methodology for successfully managing coa

  3. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  4. Adaptable habitablity, niche filling and exo-climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagai, Perets

    2015-07-01

    Planetary orbits may change due to gravitational perturbations by external bodies. Such changes can occur both on short and long timescales, and give rise to significant changes in the planetary climate and habitability. Such changes may render the climate inhabitable for any original pre-existing organisms. However, if the climate change timescale is longer than the timescale for organism genetic adaptation over several generations, the population of pre- existing organisms may evolve and adapt to the new conditions. This raises the possibility for the existence of planets in which life formed and evolved under favorable conditions, and then adapted to extreme conditions once significant climate-change occured. Such planets may therefore appear today as having too-extreme conditions as to allow for the emergence of life, even though life could have formed at ealier epoch at which time the planet climate differed. One can therefore discuss the possibility of "adaptable habitability", which relies not only on the current conditions but on the climate history and the dynamics of the planetary system. Moreover, once life emerges and evolves to the stage in which rapid adaptababilty is possible, organisms may adapt as to fill extreme environmental nches (e.g. extremophiles on Earth). Once climate-change leads to overall extreme planetary conditions, such originally extreme- niche filling organisms can prevail and occupy the main environments of the planets, where as such extreme planetary conditions, if they existed primordially, wouldn't have allowed for the emergence of life to begin with. We discuss these issues, and provide detailed planetary dynamics examples for such adaptable habitability to occur.

  5. The Climate Justice Discourse in Brazil: Potential and Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Bruno Milanez; Igor F. Fonseca

    2012-01-01

    Milanez and Fonseca (2011) argue that the climate justice discourse has not been adopted by the media, society or the communities affected by extreme climate events in Brazil. The climate justice discourse has been adapted from the concept of environmental justice and created from the idea that the impacts of climate change affect different social groups in various ways and intensities. (?)

  6. Assessing indigenous knowledge systems and climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture: A case study of Chagaka Village, Chikhwawa, Southern Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nkomwa, Emmanuel Charles; Joshua, Miriam Kalanda; Ngongondo, Cosmo; Monjerezi, Maurice; Chipungu, Felistus

    In Malawi, production from subsistence rain fed agriculture is highly vulnerable to climate change and variability. In response to the adverse effects of climate change and variability, a National Adaptation Programme of Action is used as framework for implementing adaptation programmes. However, this framework puts limited significance on indigenous knowledge systems (IKS). In many parts of the world, IKS have shown potential in the development of locally relevant and therefore sustainable adaptation strategies. This study was aimed at assessing the role of IKS in adaptation to climate change and variability in the agricultural sector in a rural district of Chikhwawa, southern Malawi. The study used both qualitative data from focus group and key informant interviews and quantitative data from household interviews and secondary data to address the research objectives. The study established that the local communities are able to recognise the changes in their climate and local environment. Commonly mentioned indicators of changing climatic patterns included delayed and unpredictable onset of rainfall, declining rainfall trends, warming temperatures and increased frequency of prolonged dry spells. An analysis of empirical data corroborates the people's perception. In addition, the community is able to use their IKS to adapt their agricultural systems to partially offset the effects of climate change. Like vulnerability to climate change, IKS varies over a short spatial scale, providing locally relevant adaptation to impacts of climate change. This paper therefore advocates for the integration of IKS in programmes addressing adaptation to climate change and vulnerability. This will serve to ensure sustainable and relevant adaptation strategies.

  7. The VIADUC project: innovation in climate adaptation through service design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corre, L.; Dandin, P.; L'Hôte, D.; Besson, F.

    2015-07-01

    From the French National Adaptation to Climate Change Plan, the "Drias, les futurs du climat" service has been developed to provide easy access to French regional climate projections. This is a major step for the implementation of French Climate Services. The usefulness of this service for the end-users and decision makers involved with adaptation planning at a local scale is investigated. As such, the VIADUC project is: to evaluate and enhance Drias, as well as to imagine future development in support of adaptation. Climate scientists work together with end-users and a service designer. The designer's role is to propose an innovative approach based on the interaction between scientists and citizens. The chosen end-users are three Natural Regional Parks located in the South West of France. The latter parks are administrative entities which gather municipalities having a common natural and cultural heritage. They are also rural areas in which specific economic activities take place, and therefore are concerned and involved in both protecting their environment and setting-up sustainable economic development. The first year of the project has been dedicated to investigation including the questioning of relevant representatives. Three key local economic sectors have been selected: i.e. forestry, pastoral farming and building activities. Working groups were composed of technicians, administrative and maintenance staff, policy makers and climate researchers. The sectors' needs for climate information have been assessed. The lessons learned led to actions which are presented hereinafter.

  8. Climate change and agriculture: Mitigation and Adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neeteson, J.J.; Verhagen, A.

    2010-01-01

    Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere resulting in rising global temperatures and sea levels. Agriculture contributes significantly to climate change through the emission of the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O). Continuation of th

  9. Climate knowledge cultures: Stakeholder perspectives on change and adaptation in Nusa Tenggara Barat, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E.L. Bohensky

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective climate adaptation requires engagement (awareness, motivation, and capacity to act at relevant scales, from individuals to global institutions. In many parts of the world, research attention has focused on the engagement of the general public. We suggest that studies also need to focus on key stakeholders in the government and non-governmental sectors who participate in adaptation planning processes, so that a better understanding may be achieved of the distinct knowledge cultures that influence their engagement with climate change. Indonesia is a key actor in climate adaptation because of the potentially dire consequences for its population’s livelihoods and well-being. In this paper we consider whether ‘climate knowledge cultures’ exist amongst stakeholders at multiple organisational levels in Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB Province, Eastern Indonesia. Surveys were conducted with 124 stakeholders from differing levels at the beginning of four multi-stakeholder climate adaptation workshops. Questions elicited perceptions of their region’s challenges, observation and awareness of climate change, feelings they associated with climate change, beliefs regarding causes, risks and preparedness for climate change, and timeframes they associated with the future. Across all levels, climate change ranked highest as the first challenge participants identified, followed by food security, but well-being ranked highest when the top three challenges were combined. Most participants believed climate change was happening, but those working at higher organisational levels were more likely to attribute climate change to human factors whereas those at lower levels were more likely to think it was a natural phenomenon. Women were in greater agreement and more optimistic than men about current government policies to cope with climate change. Perceptions differed between sub-districts, reflecting NTB’s climatic diversity. We note that although climate

  10. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future risks based on projections of climate change and city development. Furthermore, this framework can be utilized to identify cost-effective measures that can reduce the overall flood risk to an acceptable level considering both costs and benefits of adaptation. The framework is mainly based on a utilitarian approach that studies urban drainage adaptation solutions from a socio-economic point of view. The methodologies involve the state-of-the-art flood inundation modelling, risk assessment tools, socio-economic analysis tools, city planning, and uncertainty analysis. The thesis has explored several limitations of the current design practice of urban drainage. To further supplement and develop the common practice, a systemic and integrated framework is proposed by incorporating three research areas: (i) risk-based economic approaches for assessment of climate adaptation design, (ii) uncertainty analysis of climate adaptation assessment and (iii) reframing the assessment approaches by incorporating additional benefits and costs of adaptation alternatives. To strategically provide a functional performance of urban drainage systems, a risk-based economic approach is developed to take into account the impacts of all probable floods in terms of their probabilities and consequences (e.g. extents of floods, costing of damage). It is found that this approach contributes to a better understanding of the contributions of different return periods/flood events to the overall risk under both current and future climatic conditions and therefore can be used as guidance for further

  11. Regional Development and Climate Change Adaptation: A Study of the Role of Legitimacy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thorstensen Erik

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents results from a study of Czech Local Action Groups (LAGs, focusing on gaining knowledge about their internally perceived legitimacy and their potential role in local adaptation to climate change. Former studies on the role of governance networks in climate change adaptation have suggested that these networks’ legitimacy are crucial for their success. In this article we provide an analytical framework that can be used to address different aspects of local governance networks which are important for their legitimacy and the way they are apt as instruments for climate change adaptation actions. We also present a survey among LAG members that provide empirical data that we discuss in the article. The framework and the data are discussed with reference to existing contributions in the intersection of legitimacy, governance networks and climate change adaptation. A specific aim is to provide research based recommendations for further improving LAGs as an adaptation instrument. In addition, knowledge is generated that will be interesting for further studies of similar local governance initiatives in the climate change adaptation context.

  12. Accessing International Funding for Climate Change Adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lars; Ray, Aaron D.; Smith, Joel B.

    The primary aim of this guidebook is to provide countries participating in the Technology Needs Assessment (TNA) Project with practical guidance that will help them secure financing for adaptation technology transfer project profiles identified in their Technology Action Plans (TAPs). The TNA...... of international public funding sources dedicated to adaptation investments (Chapter 3) • Seven fundamental eligibility criteria for accessing international public funding and guidance on how to apply these concepts to project ideas (Chapter 3) • A template (built on the abovementioned seven fundamental...... eligibility criteria) for developing/ presenting adaptation project ideas to international donors. Using this format when communicating project ideas to international donors and agencies is likely to facilitate greater interest and increase the chances of successfully accessing available funding (Chapter 3...

  13. Global assessment of technological innovation for climate change adaptation and mitigation in developing world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adenle, Ademola A; Azadi, Hossein; Arbiol, Joseph

    2015-09-15

    Concerns about mitigating and adapting to climate change resulted in renewing the incentive for agricultural research investments and developing further innovation priorities around the world particularly in developing countries. In the near future, development of new agricultural measures and proper diffusion of technologies will greatly influence the ability of farmers in adaptation and mitigation to climate change. Using bibliometric approaches through output of academic journal publications and patent-based data, we assess the impact of research and development (R&D) for new and existing technologies within the context of climate change mitigation and adaptation. We show that many developing countries invest limited resources for R&D in relevant technologies that have great potential for mitigation and adaption in agricultural production. We also discuss constraints including weak infrastructure, limited research capacity, lack of credit facilities and technology transfer that may hinder the application of innovation in tackling the challenges of climate change. A range of policy measures is also suggested to overcome identified constraints and to ensure that potentials of innovation for climate change mitigation and adaptation are realized.

  14. Implementation arrangements for climate adaptation in the Netherlands: characteristics and underlying mechanisms of adaptive governance.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Buuren, Arwin; Keessen, A.M.; Van Leeuwen, Corniel; Eshuis, Jasper; Ellen, Gerald Jan

    2015-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is a rapidly emerging policy domain. Over the last decade we have witnessed many attempts to enhance the climate robustness of agriculture, urban development, water systems, and nature to an increase in flood and drought risks due to a higher variability in rainfall patt

  15. Beyond Adapting to Climate Change: Embedding Adaptation in Responses to Multiple Threats and Stresses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilbanks, Thomas J [ORNL; Kates, Dr. Robert W. [Independent Scholar, Bangor, Maine

    2010-01-01

    Climate change impacts are already being experienced in every region of the United States and every part of the world most severely in Arctic regions and adaptation is needed now. Although climate change adaptation research is still in its infancy, significant adaptation planning in the United States has already begun in a number of localities. This article seeks to broaden the adaptation effort by integrating it with broader frameworks of hazards research, sustainability science, and community and regional resilience. To extend the range of experience, we draw from ongoing case studies in the Southeastern United States and the environmental history of New Orleans to consider the multiple threats and stresses that all communities and regions experience. Embedding climate adaptation in responses to multiple threats and stresses helps us to understand climate change impacts, themselves often products of multiple stresses, to achieve community acceptance of needed adaptations as co-benefits of addressing multiple threats, and to mainstream the process of climate adaptation through the larger envelope of social relationships, communication channels, and broad-based awareness of needs for risk management that accompany community resilience.

  16. Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth Chornesky,; David Ackerly,; Paul Beier,; Frank Davis,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Moyle, Peter B.; Moritz, Max A.; Scoonover, Mary; Byrd, Kristin B.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Heller, Nicole E.; Micheli, Elisabeth; Weiss, Stuart

    2017-01-01

    Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.

  17. Community-based adaptation to climate change: an update

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ayers, Jessica; Huq, Saleemul

    2009-06-15

    Over a billion people - the world's poorest and most bulnerable communities – will bear the brunt of climate change. For them, building local capacity to cope is a vital step towards resilience. Community-based adaptation (CBA) is emerging as a key response to this challenge. Tailored to local cultures and conditions, CBA supports and builds on autonomous adaptations to climate variability, such as the traditional baira or floating gardens of Bangladesh, which help small farmers' crops survive climate-driven floods. Above all, CBA is participatory – a process involving both local stakeholders, and development and disaster risk reduction practitioners. As such, it builds on existing cultural norms while addressing local development issues that contribute to climate vulnerability. CBA is now gaining ground in many regions, and is ripe for the reassessment offered here.

  18. Adaptations to climate-mediated selective pressures in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela M Hancock

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Humans inhabit a remarkably diverse range of environments, and adaptation through natural selection has likely played a central role in the capacity to survive and thrive in extreme climates. Unlike numerous studies that used only population genetic data to search for evidence of selection, here we scan the human genome for selection signals by identifying the SNPs with the strongest correlations between allele frequencies and climate across 61 worldwide populations. We find a striking enrichment of genic and nonsynonymous SNPs relative to non-genic SNPs among those that are strongly correlated with these climate variables. Among the most extreme signals, several overlap with those from GWAS, including SNPs associated with pigmentation and autoimmune diseases. Further, we find an enrichment of strong signals in gene sets related to UV radiation, infection and immunity, and cancer. Our results imply that adaptations to climate shaped the spatial distribution of variation in humans.

  19. Climate Change: Seed Production and Options for Adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John G. Hampton

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Food security depends on seed security and the international seed industry must be able to continue to deliver the quantities of quality seed required for this purpose. Abiotic stress resulting from climate change, particularly elevated temperature and water stress, will reduce seed yield and quality. Options for the seed industry to adapt to climate change include moving sites for seed production, changing sowing date, and the development of cultivars with traits which allow them to adapt to climate change conditions. However, the ability of seed growers to make these changes is directly linked to the seed system. In the formal seed system operating in developed countries, implementation will be reasonably straight forward. In the informal system operating in developing countries, the current seed production challenges including supply failing to meet demand and poor seed quality will increase with changing climates.

  20. Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2011-01-01

    Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns. An increase in potential flood damage in the urban context is anticipated due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires a higher performance on flood...... risk quantification and assessment of appropriated adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper represents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give...... detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimations of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost benefit analysis. The results are aimed to provide important information to decision making on how best to adapt for urban pluvial...

  1. Coastal adaptation to climate change: A case study in Durban, South Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Geldenhuys, M.A.; Jonkman, S.N.; Mather, A.A.; Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Stive, M.J.F.; Van Ledden, M.

    2012-01-01

    Recent research done the IPCC (2007) working groups and other organizations has sparked global concern over the possible impacts of climate change and corresponding sea level rise (SLR) upon coastal communities. In reaction studies were done (for example by Nicholls et al., 2008) to assess the vulnerability of coastal regions and get an indication of the magnitude of the potential global impacts. However, most of these studies did not address the development of climate change adaptation desig...

  2. Cost benefit analysis for climate change adaption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ierland, van E.C.; Weikard, H.P.; Wesseler, J.H.H.; Groeneveld, R.A.; Ansink, E.J.H.; Bruin, de K.; Rietveld, P.; Bockarjova, M.; Hofkes, M.; Brouwer, R.; Dekker, T.

    2012-01-01

    The focus of this programme was on the development of decision making tools based on cost benefit analysis under uncertainty, for analysing adaptation and mitigation options related to spatial planning in the Netherlands. The full programme focused on the methodological issues for cost benefit analy

  3. Modelling and (adaptive) control of greenhouse climates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Udink ten Cate, A.J.

    1983-01-01

    The material presented in this thesis can be grouped around four themes, system concepts, modeling, control and adaptive control. In this summary these themes will be treated separately.System conceptsIn Chapters 1 and 2 an overview of the problem formulation is presented. It is suggested that there

  4. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rurinda, J.

    2014-01-01

        Keywords: Climate change; Increased climate variability; Vulnerability; Smallholder farmers; Adaptation   Climate change and increased climate variability are currently seen as the major constraints to the already stressed smallholder farming livelihood syst

  5. Measuring and tracking the flow of climate change adaptation aid to the developing world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, Simon D.; Kandlikar, Milind; Webber, Sophie

    2016-05-01

    The developed world has pledged to mobilize at least US 100 billion per year of ‘new’ and ‘additional’ funds by 2020 to help the developing world respond to climate change. Tracking this finance is particularly problematic for climate change adaptation, as there is no clear definition of what separates adaptation aid from standard development aid. Here we use a historical database of overseas development assistance projects to test the effect of different accounting assumptions on the delivery of adaptation finance to the developing countries of Oceania, using machine algorithms developed from a manual pilot study. The results show that explicit adaptation finance grew to 3%-4% of all development aid to Oceania by the 2008-2012 period, but that total adaptation finance could be as high as 37% of all aid, depending on potentially politically motivated assumptions about what counts as adaptation. There was also an uneven distribution of adaptation aid between countries facing similar challenges like Kiribati, the Marshall Islands, and the Federated States of Micronesia. The analysis indicates that data allowing individual projects to be weighted by their climate change relevance is needed. A robust and mandatory metadata system for all aid projects would allow multilateral aid agencies and independent third parties to perform their own analyses using different assumptions and definitions, and serve as a key check on international climate aid promises.

  6. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability.

    OpenAIRE

    Schiavon, Stefano; Zecchin, Roberto

    2007-01-01

    Impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilità Le cause e le responsabilità dei cambiamenti climatici sono state trattate sul numero di ottobre della rivista Cda. Approfondiamo l’argomento presentando il documento: “Cambiamenti climatici 2007: impatti, adattamento e vulnerabilità” votato ad aprile 2007 dal secondo gruppo di lavoro del Comitato Intergovernativo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). Si tratta del secondo di tre documenti che compongono il quarto rapporto ...

  7. An approach for assessing human health vulnerability and public health interventions to adapt to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebi, Kristie L; Kovats, R Sari; Menne, Bettina

    2006-12-01

    Assessments of the potential human health impacts of climate change are needed to inform the development of adaptation strategies, policies, and measures to lessen projected adverse impacts. We developed methods for country-level assessments to help policy makers make evidence-based decisions to increase resilience to current and future climates, and to provide information for national communications to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The steps in an assessment should include the following: a) determine the scope of the assessment; b) describe the current distribution and burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; c) identify and describe current strategies, policies, and measures designed to reduce the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes; d) review the health implications of the potential impacts of climate variability and change in other sectors; e) estimate the future potential health impacts using scenarios of future changes in climate, socioeconomic, and other factors; f) synthesize the results; and g) identify additional adaptation policies and measures to reduce potential negative health impacts. Key issues for ensuring that an assessment is informative, timely, and useful include stakeholder involvement, an adequate management structure, and a communication strategy.

  8. Adaptive thermoregulation in endotherms may alter responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyles, Justin G; Seebacher, Frank; Smit, Ben; McKechnie, Andrew E

    2011-11-01

    Climate change is one of the major issues facing natural populations and thus a focus of recent research has been to predict the responses of organisms to these changes. Models are becoming more complex and now commonly include physiological traits of the organisms of interest. However, endothermic species have received less attention than have ectotherms in these mechanistic models. Further, it is not clear whether responses of endotherms to climate change are modified by variation in thermoregulatory characteristics associated with phenotypic plasticity and/or adaptation to past selective pressures. Here, we review the empirical data on thermal adaptation and acclimatization in endotherms and discuss how those factors may be important in models of responses to climate change. We begin with a discussion of why thermoregulation and thermal sensitivity at high body temperatures should be co-adapted. Importantly, we show that there is, in fact, considerable variation in the ability of endotherms to tolerate high body temperatures and/or high environmental temperatures, but a better understanding of this variation will likely be critical for predicting responses to future climatic scenarios. Next, we discuss why variation in thermoregulatory characteristics should be considered when modeling the effects of climate change on heterothermic endotherms. Finally, we review some biophysical and biochemical factors that will limit adaptation and acclimation in endotherms. We consider both long-term, directional climate change and short-term (but increasingly common) anomalies in climate such as extreme heat waves and we suggest areas of important future research relating to both our basic understanding of endothermic thermoregulation and the responses of endotherms to climate change.

  9. Building climate resilience into perennial agroecosystems for adaptation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adapting to future climate changes will require resilient agricultural systems. Resiliency can be thought of as the ability of an ecosystem to bounce back and persist after a disturbance or shock. Stressors or perturbations may be more severe in the future because of human-induced climate change. On...

  10. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37 % of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90 %) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

  11. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-02-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

  12. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  13. Determinants of Farmers Adaptation to Climate Change. A Case from Nawalparasi District of Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeevan Lamichhane

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A field survey was conducted to study the factor that determines farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change in Deurali and Agyouli V.D.Cs of Nawalparasi District. Altogether 180 household, 90 from each V.D.C were selected randomly for the study. A logit regression model was employed in the study. However, in order to measure the magnitude of the impact of the explanatory variables on the decision of the farmer to adapt to climate change marginal effects were computed. The study uses a binary dependent variable taking the value 1 if the farmer adapted to climate change and 0 otherwise. A farmer is considered to have adapted to climate change if he/she has employed at least one of the adaptation strategies such as early and late planting, use of drought resistant crops, zero tillage operation, crop diversification, use of mulching and composting of weeds to control water loss and conserving moisture in the field. This current research considers the following as potential factors determining farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change; economically active members, education of the household head, farm size, annual cash earnings, access to credit, training and extension. Findings reveal that these factors influence farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change in Nawalparasi District and marginal effects computed showed that per unit increase in these variables increased the probability of practicing different adaptation strategies by 4.3%, 31.4%, 3%, 1.5%, 17%, 66% respectively. The log likelihood was computed to be -43.45. Psuedo. R2 was calculated to be 39%.

  14. Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cross, Molly S; McCarthy, Patrick D; Garfin, Gregg; Gori, David; Enquist, Carolyn AF

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants’ self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. Acelerando la Adaptación del Manejo de Recursos Naturales para

  15. The regional governance of climate adaptation: a framework for developing legitimate, effective, and resilient governance arrangements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Termeer, C.J.A.M.; Dewulf, A.; Rijswick, H.F.M.W.; Buuren, van A.; Huitema, D.; Meijerink, S.; Rayner, T.; Wiering, M.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change raises important governance issues. Notwithstanding the increasing attention on climate adaptation at the global and European level, the variety of local conditions and climate impacts points towards a prime role for regional actors in climate change adaptation. They fac

  16. POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC VARIABILITY ON INDIAN HIMALAYAN REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kavita Tariyal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The Himalayan region represents enormous variability of climates, hydrological and ecological systems, plus a diversity of cultures and communities. It is an essentiality to the ecological security of the Indian landmass, through providing forest cover, feeding recurrent rivers that are the source of potable water, irrigation, and hydropower, conserving biodiversity, providing a rich foundation for high value agriculture, and spectacular landscapes for sustainable tourism. Increasing concentration of greenhouse gases in the troposphere and the consequential global warming is posing a great environmental threat to water and food security at universal level. Change in climate may affect exposures to air pollutants by affecting weather, anthropogenic emissions, and by changing the distribution and types of airborne allergens. This potential variability in climate will have a serious impact on several ecosystem services, such as cleaning water and removing carbon from the atmosphere. Various services of ecosystems viz. land and water resources, agriculture, biodiversity will experience a wide range of stresses together with pests and pathogens, invasive species, atmospheric pollution, acute events, wildfires and floods. Direct stresses posed due to climate change may get intensified through high temperatures, reduced water availability, and altered frequency of extreme events and severe storms. Climate change will potentially make a threat on the availability of, and access to, water resources. The Himalayan ecosystem is vulnerable to the impacts and consequences of a changes on account of natural causes, b climate change resulting from human-induced emissions and c developmental paradigms of the modern society. Adaptation factors in the element of ‘sustainability’ into development initiatives and provides for additional measures and resources to safeguard environmental gains against climate impacts.

  17. Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

    2015-12-01

    Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

  18. In Hac Vita: Increasing Nordic Homeowners' Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neset, Tina; Linnér, Björn-Ola; Navarra, carlo

    2013-01-01

    and insurance in the Nordic countries and focuses on the design and implementation of the web-based visualisation tool VisAdaptTM, allowing homeowners to assess potential climate related risk factors that may have an impact on their living conditions, and to get an overview of existing guidelines of how......The NordForsk funded research project In Hac Vita project is a collaboration between the Nordic insurance companies If, Gjensidige, Trygg-Hansa/ Codan and Tryg Insurance, and the Top-level Research Initiative the Nordic Centre of Excellence NORD-STAR. The project concerns climate change adaptation...

  19. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  20. International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments: Conference summary and statement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-08-01

    The International Conference on Climate Change Adaptation Assessments was held in St. Petersburg, Russian Federation, from May 22--25, 1995. Sponsored by the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring, the US Country Studies Program, and the directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands Government, it was the first international conference focusing exclusively on adaptation to climate change. More than 100 people from 29 countries on five continents participated. The conference primarily addressed measures to anticipate the potential effects of climate change to minimize negative effects and take advantage of any positive effects. The focus was on what governments, institutions, and individuals can do to prepare for climate change. The conference dealt with two major topics: What adaptation options are most effective and efficient in anticipating climate change and what methods should be used to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptation options. Brief summaries are given from the following sessions on agriculture; Water resources; coastal resources; ecosystems and forests; fisheries; human settlements; water and agriculture; and the panel session on international adaptation in national communications and other development plans and needs for technical assistance.

  1. Synergies between mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, P; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2010-01-01

    is two-fold, both to reduce emissions and to adapt to a changing and more variable climate. The primary aim of the mitigation options is to reduce emissions of methane or nitrous oxide or to increase soil carbon storage. All the mitigation options, therefore, affect the carbon and/or nitrogen cycle...... through adding crop residues and manure to arable soils or by adding diversity to the crop rotations. Though some mitigation measures may have negative impacts on the adaptive capacity of farming systems, most categories of adaptation options for climate change have positive impacts on mitigation...... year is equivalent to 420 000, 130 000 and 32 000 million US$/yr for C prices of 100, 50 and 20 US$/t CO2 equiv, respectively. From both the mitigation and economic perspectives, we cannot afford to miss out on this mitigation potential. The challenge of agriculture within the climate change context...

  2. Climate Adaptation is About More Than Climate: Value-Driven Science Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanston, C.

    2015-12-01

    Efforts to deliver relevant scientific information and tools to diverse stakeholders have dramatically increased in recent years with the intention of promoting climate change adaptation. Much work has been done to understand the barriers to action, but these largely overlook the need to frame the discussion in terms of stakeholder values and co-create innovative solutions that meet their individual needs. A partnership-based effort in the upper Midwest and Northeast called the Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF; www.forestadaptation.org) ensures relevance, breadth, and credibility of its products through stakeholder inclusion at all levels. The fundamental role of the CCRF is to help people meet their land stewardship goals while minimizing climate risk. This represents a subtle but important shift in focus to people and their values, as opposed to climate change and its effects. The CCRF uses a climate planning tool, the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), along with ecosystem vulnerability assessments and a diverse "menu" of adaptation approaches to generate site-specific adaptation actions that meet explicit conservation objectives. These tools are integrated into an Adaptation Planning and Practices workshop that leads organizations through this structured process of designing adaptation tactics for their projects and plans. All of these tools were developed with stakeholders, or in response to their direct and continuing feedback. The CCRF has involved thousands of people and over 100 organizations, published six ecoregional vulnerability assessments with more than 130 authors, and generated more than 125 intentional adaptation demonstrations in real-world land management projects on federal, state, tribal, county, conservancy, and private lands. The CCRF contributes strongly to the USDA Regional Climate Hubs, working on the applied end of the continuum of climate services occupied by providers such as the CSCs, LCCs, RISAs, and RCCs.

  3. EU-wide economic valuation of adaptation to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jeuken, Ad; Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    and benefits are explored for present and future climates, for different socio-economic developments paths and different adaptation strategies. For all models the SSP (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) 2 (‘middle of the road’), 3 (‘fragmented world’) and 5 (‘market driven development’) have been explored as well...

  4. Adapting to an Uncertain Climate: Lessons From Practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Capela Lourenco, T.; Rovisco, A.; Groot, A.M.E.; Nilsson, C.; Füssel, H.M.; Bree, van L.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring t

  5. Spatial Planning of a climate adaptation zone for wetland ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, C.C.; Hoek, van der D.C.J.; Vonk, M.

    2010-01-01

    Here we present a spatial planning approach for the implementation of adaptation measures to climate change in conservation planning for ecological networks. We analyse the wetland ecosystems of the Dutch National Ecological Network for locations where the effectiveness of the network might be weake

  6. Managing for climate change on federal lands of the western United States: perceived usefulness of climate science, effectiveness of adaptation strategies, and barriers to implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kerry B. Kemp

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Recent mandates in the United States require federal agencies to incorporate climate change science into land management planning efforts. These mandates target possible adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, the degree to which climate change is actively being considered in agency planning and management decisions is largely unknown. We explored the usefulness of climate change science for federal resource managers, focusing on the efficacy of potential adaptation strategies and barriers limiting the use of climate change science in adaptation efforts. Our study was conducted in the northern Rocky Mountains region of the western United States, where we interacted with 77 U.S. Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management personnel through surveys, semistructured interviews, and four collaborative workshops at locations across Idaho and Montana. We used a mixed-methods approach to evaluate managers' perceptions about adapting to and mitigating for climate change. Although resource managers incorporate general language about climate change in regional and landscape-level planning documents, they are currently not planning on-the-ground adaptation or mitigation projects. However, managers felt that their organizations were most likely to adapt to climate change through use of existing management strategies that are already widely implemented for other non climate-related management goals. These existing strategies, (e.g., thinning and prescribed burning are perceived as more feasible than new climate-specific methods (e.g., assisted migration because they already have public and agency support, accomplish multiple goals, and require less anticipation of the future timing and probability of climate change impacts. Participants reported that the most common barriers to using climate change information included a lack of management-relevant climate change science, inconsistent agency guidance, and insufficient time and resources to access

  7. Adaptation responses to climate change differ between global megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgeson, Lucien; Maslin, Mark; Poessinouw, Martyn; Howard, Steve

    2016-06-01

    Urban areas are increasingly at risk from climate change, with negative impacts predicted for human health, the economy and ecosystems. These risks require responses from cities to improve their resilience. Policymakers need to understand current adaptation spend to plan comprehensively and effectively. Through the measurement of spend in the newly defined `adaptation economy', we analyse current climate change adaptation efforts in ten megacities. In all cases, the adaptation economy remains a small part of the overall economy, representing a maximum of 0.33% of a city's gross domestic product (here referred to as GDPc). Differences in total spend are significant between cities in developed, emerging and developing countries, ranging from #15 million to #1,600 million. Comparing key subsectors, we demonstrate the differences in adaptation profiles. Developing cities have higher proportional spend on health and agriculture, whereas developed cities have higher spend on energy and water. Spend per capita and percentage of GDPc comparisons more clearly show disparities between cities. Developing country cities spend half the proportion of GDPc and significantly less per capita, suggesting that adaptation spend is driven by wealth rather than the number of vulnerable people. This indicates that current adaptation activities are insufficient in major population centres in developing and emerging economies.

  8. Adaptation to climate change in France; L'adaptation au changement climatique en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-03-15

    This report first comments some data and facts illustrating climate change. It discusses its various impacts (extreme meteorological events, dramatic impacts on ecosystems with the possible disappearance of some vegetal and animal species, crisis regarding food resources, health risks, population migrations notably because of sea level rise), and briefly evokes these impacts in France. It outlines the need for adaptation and describes the different adaptation principles: reduction of vulnerability, and anticipation of changes and of their impacts. It comments how adaptation and mitigation are two complementary approaches. It presents the French State strategy with its national adaptation strategy, its national adaptation plan, the mandatory elaboration of regional schemes for climate, air and energy, and the action of local communities

  9. Ecologically-Relevant Maps of Landforms and Physiographic Diversity for Climate Adaptation Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theobald, David M; Harrison-Atlas, Dylan; Monahan, William B; Albano, Christine M

    2015-01-01

    Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings.

  10. Ecologically-Relevant Maps of Landforms and Physiographic Diversity for Climate Adaptation Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Theobald, David M.; Harrison-Atlas, Dylan; Monahan, William B.; Albano, Christine M.

    2015-01-01

    Key to understanding the implications of climate and land use change on biodiversity and natural resources is to incorporate the physiographic platform on which changes in ecological systems unfold. Here, we advance a detailed classification and high-resolution map of physiography, built by combining landforms and lithology (soil parent material) at multiple spatial scales. We used only relatively static abiotic variables (i.e., excluded climatic and biotic factors) to prevent confounding current ecological patterns and processes with enduring landscape features, and to make the physiographic classification more interpretable for climate adaptation planning. We generated novel spatial databases for 15 landform and 269 physiographic types across the conterminous United States of America. We examined their potential use by natural resource managers by placing them within a contemporary climate change adaptation framework, and found our physiographic databases could play key roles in four of seven general adaptation strategies. We also calculated correlations with common empirical measures of biodiversity to examine the degree to which the physiographic setting explains various aspects of current biodiversity patterns. Additionally, we evaluated the relationship between landform diversity and measures of climate change to explore how changes may unfold across a geophysical template. We found landform types are particularly sensitive to spatial scale, and so we recommend using high-resolution datasets when possible, as well as generating metrics using multiple neighborhood sizes to both minimize and characterize potential unknown biases. We illustrate how our work can inform current strategies for climate change adaptation. The analytical framework and classification of landforms and parent material are easily extendable to other geographies and may be used to promote climate change adaptation in other settings. PMID:26641818

  11. Office of Land and Emergency Management (OLEM) Climate Change Adaptation Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    This training discusses climate vulnerabilities and methods for incorporating adaptation measures into OLEM programs. This training is meant to follow completion of EPA's Introductory Climate Change Training.

  12. Climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    REN Yong-Jian; CUI Jiang-Xue; WAN Su-Qin; LIU Min; CHEN Zheng-Hong; LIAO Yu-Fang; WANG Ji-Jun

    2013-01-01

    In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the scenario A1B, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38◦C per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

  13. Economic valuation of climate change adaptation in developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stage, Jesper

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews the literature on the economics of climate change adaptation in developing countries, and identifies three key points for consideration in future studies. One key point is that all development policy should be formulated using forecasts from climate science as a baseline. When this is not done, there is risk that a false status quo without climate change is seen as an implicit baseline. Another key point is that authors must be clearer about their behavioral assumptions: Many studies either (problematically) assume profit maximization on the side of farm households, or do not specify behavioral assumptions at all. A third important point is that the allocation of rights is crucial for the results; if households have a right to maintain their current livelihoods, the costs of climate change in developing countries are considerably greater than traditional willingness-to-pay studies would indicate. Thus, costs and benefits of climate change adaptation cannot be analyzed using economic aspects only; climate science, behavioral science, and legal and moral aspects have crucial implications for the outcome of the analysis.

  14. Climate Change Adaptation in Urban Planning in African Cities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Gertrud; Herslund, Lise Byskov; Lund, Dorthe Hedensted;

    2014-01-01

    beginning to be aware of the task, and some time will pass before it is integrated into mainstream urban governance. This chapter is based on work in progress. It covers urban governance and planning aspects of climate change adaptation as studied in the CLUVA project (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability...... in Africa), as well as some experiences from Denmark. Focus is on the responses and capacities of urban authorities, strengths and weaknesses of the efforts, data needs and possible ways forward. The chapter concludes that many adaptation activities are taking place in the CLUVA case cities......, but that they need integration at city level to form strategic adaptation plans. A combined rational and pragmatic approach is advisable as is involvement of stakeholders in the production of relevant knowledge...

  15. Urban adaptation planning: the use and limits of climate science

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodman, David; Carmin, Joann

    2011-11-15

    Cities face a mounting challenge from climate change. In developed and developing countries alike, rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, higher sea levels, and more frequent and severe extreme events such as droughts and floods threaten to overwhelm urban infrastructure, services and management systems. City officials recognise the need to adapt to climate change, and use scientific evidence to support their plans for doing so. But the precise details of these changes and the local impacts they will have cannot be predicted. Decision makers must learn to draw on scientific data while simultaneously managing the uncertainty inherent in future projections. Across the world, forward-looking city officials are proving themselves to be 'urban adaptation leaders' — mobilising political and public support for and devising flexible approaches to adaptation.

  16. Invited review: Are adaptations present to support dairy cattle productivity in warm climates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berman, A

    2011-05-01

    Environmental heat stress, present during warm seasons and warm episodes, severely impairs dairy cattle performance, particularly in warmer climates. It is widely viewed that warm climate breeds (Zebu and Sanga cattle) are adapted to the climate in which they evolved. Such adaptations might be exploited for increasing cattle productivity in warm climates and decrease the effect of warm periods in cooler climates. The literature was reviewed for presence of such adaptations. Evidence is clear for resistance to ticks and tick-transmitted diseases in Zebu and Sanga breeds as well as for a possible development of resistance to ticks in additional breeds. Development of resistance to ticks demands time; hence, it needs to be balanced with potential use of insecticides or vaccination. The presumption of higher sweating rates in Zebu-derived breeds, based upon morphological differences in sweat glands between breeds, has not been substantiated. Relatively few studies have examined hair coat characteristics and their responses to seasonal heat, particularly in temperate climate breeds. Recently, a gene for slick hair coat has been observed that improved heat tolerance when introduced into temperate climate breeds. No solid evidence exists that hair coat in these lines is lighter than in well-fed warm climate-adapted Holsteins. Warm climate breeds and their F1 crosses share as dominant characteristics lower maintenance requirements and milk yields, and limited response to improved feeding and management. These characteristics are not adaptations to a feed-limited environment but are constitutive and useful in serving survival when feed is scarce and seasonal and high temperatures prevail. The negative relationship between milk yield and fertility present in temperate climates breeds also prevails in Zebu cattle. Fertility impairment by warm conditions might be counteracted in advanced farming systems by extra corporeal early embryo culture. In general, adaptations found in

  17. Developing and Implementing Climate Change Adaptation Options in Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study in Southwestern Oregon, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica E. Halofsky

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change will likely have significant effects on forest ecosystems worldwide. In Mediterranean regions, such as that in southwestern Oregon, USA, changes will likely be driven mainly by wildfire and drought. To minimize the negative effects of climate change, resource managers require tools and information to assess climate change vulnerabilities and to develop and implement adaptation actions. We developed an approach to facilitate development and implementation of climate change adaptation options in forest management. This approach, applied in a southwestern Oregon study region, involved establishment of a science–manager partnership, a science-based assessment of forest and woodland vulnerabilities to climate change, climate change education in multiple formats, hands-on development of adaptation options, and application of tools to incorporate climate change in planned projects. Through this approach, we improved local manager understanding of the potential effects of climate change in southwestern Oregon, and enabled evaluation of proposed management activities in the context of climatic stressors. Engaging managers throughout the project increased ownership of the process and outcomes, as well as the applicability of the adaptation options to on-the-ground actions. Science–management partnerships can effectively incorporate evolving science, regardless of the socio-political environment, and facilitate timely progress in adaptation to climate change.

  18. Using a Social Justice and Health Framework to Assess European Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Boeckmann

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

  19. Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2014-11-28

    Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents.

  20. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.

  1. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-03-01

    Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  2. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-12-01

    Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  3. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in Mexico. Climatic Actions Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conde, C.; Tejeda, A.; Ferrer, R. M.; Monterroso, A.; Gay, C.

    2007-05-01

    Climatic extreme events have caused in Mexico in the last 20 years ten thousand deaths and around 500 million USD per year in damages. Governmental agencies at different levels have launched several initiatives to face the changing climate and to increase the coping social capacities. In this presentation three initiatives will be discuss. A "National Strategy for Climatic Action" was submitted to public consultation in August 2006. Two authors of this presentations coordinated the discussion related to vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, were NGOs, experts and general public proposed several recommendations. A synthesis of those recommendations will be presented making emphasis on the need to increase the stakeholder's participation, capacity building and climate interdisciplinary research. For vulnerability and adaptation studies performed for the Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, we developed a survey that was answered by the "Advice Councils for Sustainable Development", of the Minister of Environment (SEMARNAT), with the purpose to analyze the perceptions and proposals of different sectors related to climate change. The main results of that survey show the interest and willingness of the different social sectors to reduce vulnerability and increase the adaptive capacity to climate variability and change. Finally, several ongoing regional initiatives to generated action plans and strategies will be presented: The State Action Plan in Veracruz and municipal / local efforts in the states of Tlaxcala and Veracruz.

  4. Climate change effects and adaptation strategies in the wine sector: a quantitative literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandro Sacchelli

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a quantitative literature review focusing on how scientific research analysed climate change impact on wine chain as well as potential adaptation strategies. The work is based on content analysis and text mining and takes into account researches from 1990 to 2015. A particular emphasis was given to the evaluation of suggested or implemented adaptation strategies at both global and national levels. Data were analysed using cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling and specificity evaluation. Results show that the study of climate change impacts on the wine sector is a recently emerging research topic. Adaptation strategies have not yet been explored thoroughly in the literature, and in-depth uncertainty quantification is also needed. Finally, additional research gaps and potential future issues are suggested.

  5. Adaptation of Leaf Water Relations to Climatic and Habitat Water Availability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick J. Mitchell

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Successful management of forest systems requires a deeper understanding of the role of ecophysiological traits in enabling adaptation to high temperature and water deficit under current and anticipated changes in climate. A key attribute of leaf water relations is the water potential at zero turgor (πtlp, because it defines the operating water potentials over which plants actively control growth and gas exchange. This study examines the drivers of variation in πtlp with respect to species climate of origin and habitat water availability. We compiled a water relations database for 174 woody species occupying clearly delineated gradients in temperature and precipitation across the Australian continent. A significant proportion of the variability in πtlp (~35% could be explained by climatic water deficit and its interaction with summertime maximum temperature, demonstrating the strong selective pressure of aridity and high temperature in shaping leaf water relations among Australian species. Habitat water availability (midday leaf water potential, was also a significant predictor of πtlp (R2 = 0.43, highlighting the importance of species ecohydrologic niche under a set of climatic conditions. Shifts in πtlp in response to both climatic and site-based drivers of water availability emphasises its adaptive significance and its suitability as a predictor of plant performance under future climatic change.

  6. Adapting to climate change in forest based land use systems: A guide to strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Secrett, C.M.

    1996-12-31

    The prospect of climate change and sea level rise as a result of greenhouse gas emissions presents a serious challenge to decision-makers concerned with ensuring sustainable development. This report provides a guide to means of reducing the potential impact of the global warming problem on the forest sector whilst ensuring that more immediate development priorities are met. The most effective response strategy will be one that simultaneously brings both immediate development and longer-term adaptive benefits. This report outlines ways of constructing an adaptive response strategy that can help achieve these ends. The approach is referred to as sustainable adaptation. A prototype methodological framework of the sustainable adaptation approach has been provided with the summary. The first priority of sustainable adaption is to base climate change responses on actions that meet basic ecological and social needs now and in the future. Solutions should necessarily include relieving current development pressures in the tropical forest sector. The key is to couple adaptive responses to climate change with sustainable development solutions to present-day forest use problems. Implementing adaptive land-use policies and management practices which are likely to minimise the adverse impacts of anticipated climate change should meet current sustainable management goals. Implementing sustainable land-use and forestry management practices should meet adaptation goals. This report presents a discussion of the fundamental issues underlying the development of a sustainable adaptation strategy and a prototype methodological framework. The findings are based on case studies conducted in Central America (Costa Rica and Nicaragua); SADCC countries in Africa (Zimbabwe, Botswana, Tanzania); and Asia (Vietnam). 450 refs

  7. Adaptive strategies to climate change in Southern Malawi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chidanti-Malunga, J.

    Climate change poses a big challenge to rural livelihoods in the Shire Valley area of Southern Malawi, where communities have depended almost entirely on rain-fed agriculture for generations. The Shire Valley area comprises of low-altitude dambo areas and uplands which have been the main agricultural areas. Since early to mid 1980s, the uplands have experienced prolonged droughts and poor rainfall distribution, while the dambos have experienced recurrent seasonal floods. This study assessed some of the adaptive strategies exercised by small-scale rural farmers in response to climate change in the Shire Valley. The methodology used in collecting information includes group discussions, household surveys in the area, secondary data, and field observations. The results show that small-scale rural farmers exercise a number of adaptive strategies in response to climate change. These adaptive strategies include: increased use of water resources for small-scale irrigation or wetland farming, mostly using simple delivery techniques; increased management of residual moisture; and increased alternative sources of income such as fishing and crop diversity. It was also observed that government promoted the use of portable motorized pumps for small-scale irrigation in order to mitigate the effects of climate change. However, these external interventions were not fully adopted; instead the farmers preferred local interventions which mostly had indigenous elements.

  8. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  9. Building climate adaptation capabilities through technology and community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, D.; McWhirter, J.; Intsiful, J. D.; Cozzini, S.

    2011-12-01

    To effectively plan for adaptation to changes in climate, decision makers require infrastructure and tools that will provide them with timely access to current and future climate information. For example, climate scientists and operational forecasters need to access global and regional model projections and current climate information that they can use to prepare monitoring products and reports and then publish these for the decision makers. Through the UNDP African Adaption Programme, an infrastructure is being built across Africa that will provide multi-tiered access to such information. Web accessible servers running RAMADDA, an open source content management system for geoscience information, will provide access to the information at many levels: from the raw and processed climate model output to real-time climate conditions and predictions to documents and presentation for government officials. Output from regional climate models (e.g. RegCM4) and downscaled global climate models will be accessible through RAMADDA. The Integrated Data Viewer (IDV) is being used by scientists to create visualizations that assist the understanding of climate processes and projections, using the data on these as well as external servers. Since RAMADDA is more than a data server, it is also being used as a publishing platform for the generated material that will be available and searchable by the decision makers. Users can wade through the enormous volumes of information and extract subsets for their region or project of interest. Participants from 20 countries attended workshops at ICTP during 2011. They received training on setting up and installing the servers and necessary software and are now working on deploying the systems in their respective countries. This is the first time an integrated and comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation has been widely applied in Africa. It is expected that this infrastructure will enhance North-South collaboration and improve the

  10. A review of climate-change adaptation strategies for wildlife management and biodiversity conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mawdsley, Jonathan R; O'Malley, Robin; Ojima, Dennis S

    2009-10-01

    The scientific literature contains numerous descriptions of observed and potential effects of global climate change on species and ecosystems. In response to anticipated effects of climate change, conservation organizations and government agencies are developing "adaptation strategies" to facilitate the adjustment of human society and ecological systems to altered climate regimes. We reviewed the literature and climate-change adaptation plans that have been developed in United States, Canada, England, México, and South Africa and found 16 general adaptation strategies that relate directly to the conservation of biological diversity. These strategies can be grouped into four broad categories: land and water protection and management; direct species management; monitoring and planning; and law and policy. Tools for implementing these strategies are similar or identical to those already in use by conservationists worldwide (land and water conservation, ecological restoration, agrienvironment schemes, species translocation, captive propagation, monitoring, natural resource planning, and legislation/regulation). Although our review indicates natural resource managers already have many tools that can be used to address climate-change effects, managers will likely need to apply these tools in novel and innovative ways to meet the unprecedented challenges posed by climate change.

  11. Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

  12. Planning and costing agriculture's adaptation to climate change: Policy Perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Downing, Tom; Chambwera, Muyeye; Venton, Courtnay Cabot; Dyszynski, Jillian; Crawford, Victoria

    2011-10-15

    Agriculture has a crucial role to play in meeting development goals – from demand for food as populations grow and become wealthier to maintaining essential ecosystem services, diverse livelihoods, and economic development. Underinvestment over the past 20 years has resulted in a sector that is not adequately prepared for the challenges of climate change. Yet for most developing countries, agriculture has been one of the earliest sectors to be affected by climate change, with negative impacts already apparent and more serious consequences projected for the future. There is increasing recognition by both the climate change and agricultural development communities that agriculture needs to be part of a new global climate change deal. 'No agriculture, no deal' is a clear signal from concerned stakeholders that agriculture will be a key feature of climate change negotiations, both for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and protecting vulnerable populations and economies. There has been a long history of assessments of the impact of climate change on agriculture, and recent international movements to press toward effective action are noteworthy. This Policy Perspectives paper summarises the results from a recent study led by the International Institute for Environment and Development, the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Global Climate Adaptation Partnership, with national teams in five developing countries. The principal conclusions inform policy and planning by addressing the following issues: 1. Framing and methodological development in the assessment of climate adaptation. 2. Assessment of current vulnerabilities, and potential future impacts and costs of adaptation. 3. Identification of strategies and measures considered priorities across regions and types of agriculture in 'pathways of adaptation'.

  13. Department of Defense 2014 Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-01

    changes  that  are  occurring  or  expected  to  occur;  and   mitigation,  or  efforts  that  reduce   greenhouse   gas ...and  has  purview   over  mitigation  –  through   greenhouse   gas  emissions  reduction  efforts  –  and   climate ...to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Department of Defense 2014 Climate Change Adaptation

  14. Local adaptation in brown trout early life-history traits: implications for climate change adaptability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, L.F.; Hansen, Michael Møller; Pertoldi, C.

    2008-01-01

    to adapt. Temperature-related adaptability in traits related to phenology and early life history are expected to be particularly important in salmonid fishes. We focused on the latter and investigated whether four populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta) are locally adapted in early life-history traits...... and heritable variation in phenotypic plasticity suggest that although increasing temperatures are likely to affect some populations negatively, they may have the potential to adapt to changing temperature regimes.  ...

  15. Climate adaptation - 5 key research themes; Denmark; Klimatilpasning - 5 centrale forskningstemaer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andersen, Bent; Binnerup, S.; Bijl, L. van der; Villholth, K.G.; Drews, M.; Strand, I.F.; Henrichs, T.; Larsen, Niels; Timmermann, T.; Moseholm, L.

    2009-06-15

    The report proposes five key research themes under the heading 'Future climate and climate adaptation' which can support the Danish climate adaptation efforts. These themes underpin climate adaptation in the light of research needs identified by the research environments and sectors under the government's strategy on adaptation to climate change in Denmark from March 2008. The paper has been prepared within the framework of RESEARCH2015-proposal by the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation in order to bring about the knowledge and tools that are demanded by sectors and authorities to implement the government's climate adaptation strategy. This concept paper for research themes is a thorough, holistic and inter-sectoral suggestion for future research priorities in climate adaptation with anchoring in both the research community as well as in the political-administrative system. The five key themes are; 1. Models and climate adaptation; 2. Communities and climate adaptation; 3. Construction and climate adaptation; 4. Landscape and climate adaptation; 5. Climate adaptation in the coastal zone. The overall research needs over a 5 year period is estimated at 700 million DKK, of which 85 million DKK yearly can be estimated to be financed primarily through national basic funds and research council funds. Research is assumed to be coupled to external financing, for which the EU's 7th Framework Program and the Nordic excellence and innovation program in the energy, climate and environment will be significant sources.

  16. The role of knowledge and power in climate change adaptation governance: a systematic literature review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vink, M.J.; Dewulf, A.; Termeer, C.J.A.M.

    2013-01-01

    The long-term character of climate change and the high costs of adaptation measures, in combination with their uncertain effects, turn climate adaptation governance into a torturous process. We systematically review the literature on climate adaptation governance to analyze the scholarly understandi

  17. Implementing European climate adaptation policy. How local policymakers react to European policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Thomas; Spit, Tejo

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these

  18. Implementing European climate adaptation policy : How local policymakers react to european policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartmann, Thomas; Spit, Tejo

    2015-01-01

    EU policy and projects have an increasing influence on policymaking for climate adaptation. This is especially evident in the development of new climate adaptation policies in transnational city networks. Until now, climate adaptation literature has paid little attention to the influence that these

  19. Role-play simulations for climate change adaptation education and engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumore, Danya; Schenk, Todd; Susskind, Lawrence

    2016-08-01

    In order to effectively adapt to climate change, public officials and other stakeholders need to rapidly enhance their understanding of local risks and their ability to collaboratively and adaptively respond to them. We argue that science-based role-play simulation exercises -- a type of 'serious game' involving face-to-face mock decision-making -- have considerable potential as education and engagement tools for enhancing readiness to adapt. Prior research suggests role-play simulations and other serious games can foster public learning and encourage collective action in public policy-making contexts. However, the effectiveness of such exercises in the context of climate change adaptation education and engagement has heretofore been underexplored. We share results from two research projects that demonstrate the effectiveness of role-play simulations in cultivating climate change adaptation literacy, enhancing collaborative capacity and facilitating social learning. Based on our findings, we suggest such exercises should be more widely embraced as part of adaptation professionals' education and engagement toolkits.

  20. Overview of climate change adaptation platforms/services in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Street, Roger; Sanderson, Hans; Clare, Downing

    2015-01-01

    information on the nature and scope of the links between adaptation services, and climate services and disaster risk management services. The information provided covers the status and drivers for these links, how respective roles can be defined and relationships established, and how to enhance the quality...... of services available. This paper was developed with input from country experts through a one-day expert meeting, that was held on 23 June 2014, back to back with the 24 June EIONET workshop on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation (CCIVA) at the EEA. In addition, telephone interviews...... with platform managers were carried out to confirm the information about the individual platforms that is the basis for this report....

  1. A need for planned adaptation to climate change in the wine industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Marc J.; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    2011-09-01

    The diversity of wine production depends on subtle differences in microclimate and is therefore especially sensitive to climate change. A warmer climate will impact directly on wine-grapes through over-ripening, drying out, rising acidity levels, and greater vulnerability to pests and disease, resulting in changes in wine quality (e.g. complexity, balance and structure) or potentially the style of wine that can be produced. The growing scientific evidence for significant climate change in the coming decades means that adaptation will be of critical importance to the multi-billion dollar global wine-industry in general, and to quality wine producers in particular (White et al 2006, 2009; Hertsgaard 2011). Adaptation is understood as an adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected environmental change, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC 2007). Autonomous adaptation has been an integral part of the 20th century wine industry. Technological advances, changes in consumer demand, and global competition have meant that growers and producers have had to adapt to stay in business. The gradual temperature rise in the 20th Century (0.7 °C globally) has been accommodated successfully by gradual changes in vine management, technological measures, production control, and marketing (White et al 2009), although this has in many cases resulted in the production of bolder, more alcoholic wines (Hertsgaard 2011). In spite of this success, the wine industry is surprisingly conservative when it comes to considering longer term planned adaptation for substantial climate change impacts. A few producers are expanding to new locations at higher altitudes or cooler climates (e.g. Torres is developing new vineyards high in the Pyrenees, and Mouton Rothschild is setting up new vineyards in South America), and the legal and cultural restrictions of Appelation d'Origine Cȏntrollée (AOC) systems are being discussed (White et al 2009

  2. The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winsemius, H. C.; Dutra, E.; Engelbrecht, F. A.; Archer Van Garderen, E.; Wetterhall, F.; Pappenberger, F.; Werner, M. G. F.

    2013-12-01

    Subsistence farming in Southern Africa is vulnerable to extreme weather conditions. The yield of rain-fed agriculture depends largely on rainfall-related factors such as total seasonal rainfall, anomalous onsets and lengths of the rainy season and the frequency of occurrence of dry spells. Livestock, in turn, may be seriously impacted by climatic stress with, for example, exceptionally hot days, affecting condition, reproduction, vulnerability to pests and pathogens and, ultimately, morbidity and mortality. Climate change may affect the frequency and severity of extreme weather conditions, impacting on the success of subsistence farming. A potentially interesting adaptation measure comprises the timely forecasting and warning of such extreme events, combined with mitigation measures that allow farmers to prepare for the event occurring. This paper investigates how the frequency of extreme events may change in the future due to climate change over southern Africa and, in more detail, the Limpopo basin using a set of climate change projections from several regional climate model downscalings. Furthermore the paper assesses the predictability of these indicators by seasonal meteorological forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system. The focus is on the frequency of dry spells as well as the frequency of heat stress conditions expressed in the Temperature Heat Index. In areas where their frequency of occurrence increases in the future and predictability is found, seasonal forecasts will gain importance in the future as they can more often lead to informed decision making to implement mitigation measures. The multi-model climate projections suggest that the frequency of dry spells is not likely to increase substantially, whereas there is a clear and coherent signal among the models, of an increase in the frequency of heat stress conditions by the end of the century. The skill analysis of the seasonal forecast

  3. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Iain Brown

    2015-01-01

    Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government...

  4. Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2008-02-01

    Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

  5. Land Use Change and Global Adaptations to Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roxana Juliá

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses the World Trade Model with Climate Sensitive Land (WTMCL to evaluate possible future land-use changes associated with adaptations to climate change in a globalized world. In this approach, changes in regional agricultural production, which are based on comparative advantage, define patterns of land use change in agriculture in all regions of the world. We evaluate four scenarios that combine assumptions about future increases in food demand and future changes in land endowments of different productivities associated with climatic conditions: each scenario generates distinct patterns of regional specialization in the production of agricultural commodities and associated land-use change. The analysis also projects future food availability under the simulated conditions and the direction of likely changes in prices of the major agricultural commodity groups.

  6. Establishment of an indicator concept for the German strategy on adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von; Wulfert, Katrin [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Luthardt, Vera; Kreinsen, Beatrice; Schultz-Sternberg, R.; Hommel, Robert [Hochschule fuer Nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Even if we succeed in achieving the EU target of reducing global warming to 2 C, it will be absolutely essential to adapt to changing climatic conditions. The greenhouse gases currently present in the atmosphere will influence the climate in coming decades. The day on which it is quite clear which climatic scenario prevails, so that it is possible to model all relevant processes down to regional level, will be the day on which it is too late to adapt to the actual scenario. Our endeavours to adapt to climate change do not mean, however, that we can neglect to take measures in order to reduce the output of greenhouse gases. It is important to remember that on their own, neither adaptation nor mitigation can prevent the grave impacts resulting from climate change. In fact, they complement each other meaningfully thus helping to alleviate the risks of climate change. On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the DAS (German Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change), (Bundesregierung 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and fore-most, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide a guideline for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in this process. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and advance the DAS. An integral part of this will be the Special Information System 'Adaptation' (FISKA) and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far

  7. Climate Variability and Household Adaptation Strategies in Southern Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wassie Berhanu

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the determinants and implied economic impacts of climate change adaptation strategies in the context of traditional pastoralism. It is based on econometric analysis of survey data generated from household level interviews in southern Ethiopian rangelands. Pastoralists’ perception of climate change in the region is found to be very consistent with the actually recorded trends of increased temperature and the evident secular declines in precipitation. Not only long-term declines, trends in the region’s rainfall also appear to have taken a shift towards the direction of more unpredictability. Pastoralist adaptation response strategies broadly involve adjustments in pastoral practices and shifts to non-pastoral livelihoods. Results of the estimated models confirm that pastoral mobility is still quite essential in the present context of climate-induced household vulnerabilities. Increased mobility and diversification of pastoral herd portfolios in favor of a drought-tolerant species (camel are found to be positively associated with pastoral household net income. A policy stance that ignores the detrimental impacts of the currently pervasive private rangeland enclosures or intends to hasten pastoralist sedentarization in the area is simply untenable in the present context of climate-induced risks and pastoral livelihood vulnerability.

  8. State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

  9. Health impacts of climate change in Vanuatu: an assessment and adaptation action plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spickett, Jeffery T; Katscherian, Dianne; McIver, Lachlan

    2013-01-30

    Climate change is one of the greatest global challenges and Pacific island countries are particularly vulnerable due to, among other factors, their geography, demography and level of economic development. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used as a basis for the consideration of the potential health impacts of changes in the climate on the population of Vanuatu, to assess the risks and propose a range of potential adaptive responses appropriate for Vanuatu. The HIA process involved the participation of a broad range of stakeholders including expert sector representatives in the areas of bio-physical, socio-economic, infrastructure, environmental diseases and food, who provided informed comment and input into the understanding of the potential health impacts and development of adaptation strategies. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed with the application of a qualitative process that considered both the consequences and the likelihood of each of the potential health impacts occurring. Potential adaptation strategies and actions were developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by the various sectors in Vanuatu to contribute to future decision making processes associated with the health impacts of climate change.

  10. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy: Partnering with Decision-Makers in Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, D.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J.; Gerlach, C.

    2008-12-01

    The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP; www.uaf.edu/accap) is one of several, NOAA funded, Regional Integrated Science and Policy (RISA) programs nation-wide (http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/). Our mission is to assess the socio-economic and biophysical impacts of climate variability in Alaska, make this information available to local and regional decision-makers, and improve the ability of Alaskans to adapt to a changing climate. We partner with the University of Alaska?s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/), state and local government, state and federal agencies, industry, and non-profit organizations to communicate accurate and up-to-date climate science and assist in formulating adaptation and mitigation plans. ACCAP and SNAP scientists are members of the Governor?s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Adaptation and Mitigation Advisory and Technical Working Groups (http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/), and apply their scientific expertise to provide down-scaled, state-wide maps of temperature and precipitation projections for these groups. An ACCAP scientist also serves as co-chair for the Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate Change Task Force, assisting this group as they work through the five-step model for climate change planning put forward by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (http://www.investfairbanks.com/Taskforces/climate.php). ACCAP scientists work closely with federal resource managers in on a range of projects including: partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to analyze hydrologic changes associated with climate change and related ecological impacts and wildlife management and development issues on Alaska?s North Slope; partnering with members of the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Coordinating Group in statistical modeling to predict seasonal wildfire activity and coordinate fire suppression resources state-wide; and working with Alaska Native Elders and

  11. Responding to climate change in New York State: the ClimAID integrated assessment for effective climate change adaptation in New York State. Final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.

  12. Governmental responses and smallholders' adaptations to climatic variability in southeastern Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mardero Jimenez, Silvia Sofia; Schmook, Birgit; Christman, Zachary; Radel, Claudia

    2016-04-01

    Maize agriculture comprises a third of the area under cultivation in Mexico (75 million hectares), with only a quarter of this crop irrigated artificially. With the great dependence of the country's dominant crop on natural rainfall, there is potential for major losses in maize production due to climatic events, such as irregular rainfalls, droughts, and hurricanes. In 2012, droughts alone caused losses of 16 billion Mexican pesos nationwide in the agricultural sector. Over the last decades, political and economic pressures in the agrarian sector have further stressed Mexican smallholder farmers, as they have to respond to a combination of economic and climatic factors. This interdisciplinary study first documents local climate changes and then explores smallholder farmers' adaptations and governmental policy responses to the variable and changing precipitation and temperature patterns across southeastern Mexico. To assess local climate changes, we analyzed precipitation and temperature data from the land-based weather station network of CONAGUA for the 1973-2012 period. Precipitation anomalies were estimated to evaluate the annual and seasonal stability, deficit, or surplus; and linear regressions used to evaluate precipitation and temperature trends. Climatic analysis demonstrated, 1) a considerable increase in temperature across the study area; 2) a decline in precipitation across a sub-section; 3) increased drought frequency; and 4) an increase in negative anomalies in recent years. We then combine findings from our previous research (Mardero et al. 2014 and Mardero et al. 2015), based on interviews with 150 swidden maize smallholders in 10 communities, to new data from in-depth interviews with managers of local and regional agricultural associations and with members of governmental institutions in charge of climate policy implementation (n=19). The new data allow us to explore governmental responses to climatic variability in the agricultural sector in direct

  13. Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Tschakert

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper is a methodological contribution to emerging debates on the role of learning, particularly forward-looking (anticipatory learning, as a key element for adaptation and resilience in the context of climate change. First, we describe two major challenges: understanding adaptation as a process and recognizing the inadequacy of existing learning tools, with a specific focus on high poverty contexts and complex livelihood-vulnerability risks. Then, the article examines learning processes from a dynamic systems perspective, comparing theoretical aspects and conceptual advances in resilience thinking and action research/learning (AR/AL. Particular attention is paid to learning loops (cycles, critical reflection, spaces for learning, and power. Finally, we outline a methodological framework to facilitate iterative learning processes and adaptive decision making in practice. We stress memory, monitoring of key drivers of change, scenario planning, and measuring anticipatory capacity as crucial ingredients. Our aim is to identify opportunities and obstacles for forward-looking learning processes at the intersection of climatic uncertainty and development challenges in Africa, with the overarching objective to enhance adaptation and resilient livelihood pathways, rather than learning by shock.

  14. Developing integrated approaches to climate change adaptation in rural communities of the Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, Christian

    2010-05-01

    Over centuries, Andean communities have developed strategies to cope with climate variability and extremes, such as cold waves or droughts, which can have severe impacts on their welfare. Nevertheless, the rural population, living at altitudes of 3000 to 4000 m asl or even higher, remains highly vulnerable to external stresses, partly because of the extreme living conditions, partly as a consequence of high poverty. Moreover, recent studies indicate that climatic extreme events have increased in frequency in the past years. A Peruvian-Swiss Climate Change Adaptation Programme in Peru (PACC) is currently undertaking strong efforts to understand the links between climatic conditions and local livelihood assets. The goal is to propose viable strategies for adaptation in collaboration with the local population and governments. The program considers three main areas of action, i.e. (i) water resource management; (ii) disaster risk reduction; and (iii) food security. The scientific studies carried out within the programme follow a highly transdisciplinary approach, spanning the whole range from natural and social sciences. Moreover, the scientific Peruvian-Swiss collaboration is closely connected to people and institutions operating at the implementation and political level. In this contribution we report on first results of thematic studies, address critical questions, and outline the potential of integrative research for climate change adaptation in mountain regions in the context of a developing country.

  15. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in the Comoe River Basin (West Africa).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yéo, Wonnan Eugène; Goula, Bi Tié Albert; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Afouda, Abel

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is impacting water users in many sectors: water supply, farming, industry, hydropower, fishing, housing, navigation and health. Existing situations, like population growth, movement of populations from rural to urban areas, poverty and pollution can aggravate the impacts of climate change. The aim of the study is to evaluate the vulnerability of different water user groups to climate change and define communities' adaptation strategies in the Comoe River Basin. Information was collected on communities' concerns and perception on changes in climate and potential adaptation measures and strategies. Results show that 95 % of the sample in the study communities had heard of it and are aware that climate change is occurring. They have been experiencing changes in economic activity and cropping pattern, reduced water level in rivers, crop failure, delay in cropping season, new pests and diseases, food insecurity, drop in income and decline in crop yield. Results also show that communities employ various adaptation strategies including crops diversification, substitution and calendar redefinition, agroforestry, borrowing from friends and money lenders and increasing fertilizer application.

  16. Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ploubidis George B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622 acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility, Odds Ratio (OR = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI: 1.4 - 4.0, endanger their life (perceived severity, OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1, or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5. Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1 or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2 for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4 or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2

  17. Co-production of knowledge: recipe for success in land-based climate change adaptation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coninx, Ingrid; Swart, Rob

    2015-04-01

    After multiple failures of scientists to trigger policymakers and other relevant actors to take action when communicating research findings, the request for co-production (or co-creation) of knowledge and stakeholder involvement in climate change adaptation efforts has rapidly increased over the past few years. In particular for land-based adaptation, on-the-ground action is often met by societal resistance towards solutions proposed by scientists, by a misfit of potential solutions with the local context, leading to misunderstanding and even rejection of scientific recommendations. A fully integrative co-creation process in which both scientists and practitioners discuss climate vulnerability and possible responses, exploring perspectives and designing adaptation measures based on their own knowledge, is expected to prevent the adaptation deadlock. The apparent conviction that co-creation processes result in successful adaptation, has not yet been unambiguously empirically demonstrated, but has resulted in co-creation being one of basic principles in many new research and policy programmes. But is co-creation that brings knowledge of scientists and practitioners together always the best recipe for success in climate change adaptation? Assessing a number of actual cases, the authors have serious doubts. The paper proposes additional considerations for adaptively managing the environment that should be taken into account in the design of participatory knowledge development in which climate scientists play a role. These include the nature of the problem at stake; the values, interests and perceptions of the actors involved; the methods used to build trust, strengthen alignment and develop reciprocal relationships among scientists and practitioners; and the concreteness of the co-creation output.

  18. Adaptation to floods in future climate: a practical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata; Radon, Radoslaw; Hisdal, Hege

    2016-04-01

    In this study some aspects of the application of the 1D hydraulic model are discussed with a focus on its suitability for flood adaptation under future climate conditions. The Biała Tarnowska catchment is used as a case study. A 1D hydraulic model is developed for the evaluation of inundation extent and risk maps in future climatic conditions. We analyse the following flood indices: (i) extent of inundation area; (ii) depth of water on flooded land; (iii) the flood wave duration; (iv) the volume of a flood wave over the threshold value. In this study we derive a model cross-section geometry following the results of primary research based on a 500-year flood inundation extent. We compare two methods of localisation of cross-sections from the point of view of their suitability to the derivation of the most precise inundation outlines. The aim is to specify embankment heights along the river channel that would protect the river valley in the most vulnerable locations under future climatic conditions. We present an experimental design for scenario analysis studies and uncertainty reduction options for future climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.

  19. Climate Change Adaptation Among Tibetan Pastoralists: Challenges in Enhancing Local Adaptation Through Policy Support

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R. Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

    2012-10-01

    While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

  20. Climate change adaptation for the US National Wildlife Refuge System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, Brad; Scott, J. Michael; Adamcik, Robert S.; Ashe, Daniel; Czech, Brian; Fischman, Robert; Gonzalez, Patrick; Lawler, Joshua J.; McGuire, A. David; Pidgorna, Anna

    2009-01-01

    Since its establishment in 1903, the National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) has grown to 635 units and 37 Wetland Management Districts in the United States and its territories. These units provide the seasonal habitats necessary for migratory waterfowl and other species to complete their annual life cycles. Habitat conversion and fragmentation, invasive species, pollution, and competition for water have stressed refuges for decades, but the interaction of climate change with these stressors presents the most recent, pervasive, and complex conservation challenge to the NWRS. Geographic isolation and small unit size compound the challenges of climate change, but a combined emphasis on species that refuges were established to conserve and on maintaining biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health provides the NWRS with substantial latitude to respond. Individual symptoms of climate change can be addressed at the refuge level, but the strategic response requires system-wide planning. A dynamic vision of the NWRS in a changing climate, an explicit national strategic plan to implement that vision, and an assessment of representation, redundancy, size, and total number of units in relation to conservation targets are the first steps toward adaptation. This adaptation must begin immediately and be built on more closely integrated research and management. Rigorous projections of possible futures are required to facilitate adaptation to change. Furthermore, the effective conservation footprint of the NWRS must be increased through land acquisition, creative partnerships, and educational programs in order for the NWRS to meet its legal mandate to maintain the biological integrity, diversity, and environmental health of the system and the species and ecosystems that it supports.

  1. A Model for Pre-Service Teachers' Climate Change Awareness and Willingness to Act for Pro-Climate Change Friendly Behavior: Adaptation of Awareness to Climate Change Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal, Burçkin; Alper, Umut; Özdem-Yilmaz, Yasemin; Öztürk, Nilay; Sönmez, Duygu

    2015-01-01

    Public awareness of the negative effects of climate change is vital since it leads to collective action for prevention and adaptation. However, investigations on to what extent people are aware of the climate change issue are rare in the literature. The present study reported the adaptation process of awareness to climate change questionnaire into…

  2. Regional Water System Vulnerabilities and Strengths for Unavoidable Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gleick, P. H.; Palaniappan, M.; Christian-Smith, J.; Cooley, H.

    2011-12-01

    A wide range of options are available to help water systems prepare and adapt for unavoidable climate impacts, but these options vary depending on region, climatic conditions, economic status, and technical infrastructure in place. Drawing on case studies from the United States, India, and elsewhere, and from both urban and agricultural water systems, risks to water supply and quality are evaluated and summarized and categories of responses to help improve the effectiveness of adaptation policies are reviewed. Among the issues to be discussed are characteristics unique to developing country cities, such as the predominance of informal actors in the water sector. The formal, or government sector, which often exclusively manages water access and distribution in developed country cities, is only one among many players in the water sector in developing country cities. Informal access to water includes direct access by individuals through private groundwater systems, private water markets using vendors or sales of bottled water, and rainwater harvesting systems on individual homes. In this environment, with already existing pressures on water availability and use, the impacts of climate change on water will be strongly felt. This complicates planning for water supply and demand and risks increasing already prevalent water insecurity, especially for urban poor. In wealthier countries, any planning for water-related climate impacts tends to take the form of "business as usual" responses, such as efforts to expand supply with new infrastructure, manage demand through conservation programs, or simply put off addressing the problem to the next generation of managers and users. These approaches can be effective, but also risk missing unusual, non-linear, or threshold impacts. Examples of more informed and innovative efforts to substantively address climate change risks will be presented.

  3. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    OpenAIRE

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J; Beersma, J.J.; Middelkoop, H.; J. C. J. Kwadijk

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static 'endpoint' projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on wat...

  4. A cross-region study: climate change adaptation in Malawi's agro-based systems

    OpenAIRE

    Assa, Maganga Mulagha; Gebremariam, Gebrelibanos G.; Mapemba, Lawrence D.

    2013-01-01

    Agriculture in Malawi is vulnerable to the impacts of changing climate. Adaptation is identified as one of the options to abate the negative impacts of the changing climate. This study analyzed the factors influencing different climate change adaptation choices by smallholder farmers in Malawi. We sampled 900 farmers from all three regions of Malawi, using the multistage sampling procedure, study piloted in 2012. We analyzed smallholder farmers’ climate change adaptation choices with Multinom...

  5. The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Sari Kovats, R.; Lotze, Heike K.; Mearns, Linda O.; Navarra, Antonio; Ojima, Dennis S.; Riahi, Keywan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Themessl, Matthias; Vincent, Katharine

    2016-09-01

    This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

  6. Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

    2015-07-01

    The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

  7. The role of interactions in a world implementing adaptation and mitigation solutions to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Rachel

    2011-01-13

    The papers in this volume discuss projections of climate change impacts upon humans and ecosystems under a global mean temperature rise of 4°C above preindustrial levels. Like most studies, they are mainly single-sector or single-region-based assessments. Even the multi-sector or multi-region approaches generally consider impacts in sectors and regions independently, ignoring interactions. Extreme weather and adaptation processes are often poorly represented and losses of ecosystem services induced by climate change or human adaptation are generally omitted. This paper addresses this gap by reviewing some potential interactions in a 4°C world, and also makes a comparison with a 2°C world. In a 4°C world, major shifts in agricultural land use and increased drought are projected, and an increased human population might increasingly be concentrated in areas remaining wet enough for economic prosperity. Ecosystem services that enable prosperity would be declining, with carbon cycle feedbacks and fire causing forest losses. There is an urgent need for integrated assessments considering the synergy of impacts and limits to adaptation in multiple sectors and regions in a 4°C world. By contrast, a 2°C world is projected to experience about one-half of the climate change impacts, with concomitantly smaller challenges for adaptation. Ecosystem services, including the carbon sink provided by the Earth's forests, would be expected to be largely preserved, with much less potential for interaction processes to increase challenges to adaptation. However, demands for land and water for biofuel cropping could reduce the availability of these resources for agricultural and natural systems. Hence, a whole system approach to mitigation and adaptation, considering interactions, potential human and species migration, allocation of land and water resources and ecosystem services, will be important in either a 2°C or a 4°C world.

  8. Urban Planning and Climate Change: Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fulvia Pinto

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is a current phenomenon: the temperatures rise, rainfall patterns are changing, glaciers melt and the average global sea level is rising. It is expected that these changes will continue and that the extreme weather events, such as floods and droughts, will become more frequent and intense. The impact and vulnerability factors for nature, for the economy and for our health are different, depending on the territorial, social and economic aspects. The current scientific debate is focused on the need to formulate effective policies for adaptation and mitigation to climate change. The city plays an important role in this issue: it emits the most greenhouse gas emissions (more than 60% of the world population currently lives in urban areas and the city is more exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Urban planning and territorial governance play a crucial role in this context: the international debate on the sustainability of urban areas is increasing. It’s necessary to adapt the tools of building regulations to increase the quality of energy - environment of the cities.

  9. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, April M; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J; Marchenko, Sergey S

    2017-01-10

    Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80-100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5.

  10. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, April M.; Larsen, Peter; Boehlert, Brent; Neumann, James E.; Chinowsky, Paul; Espinet, Xavier; Martinich, Jeremy; Baumann, Matthew S.; Rennels, Lisa; Bothner, Alexandra; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Marchenko, Sergey S.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5. PMID:28028223

  11. Climate change in semi-arid Malawi: Perceptions, adaptation strategies and water governance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miriam K. Joshua

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change and variability are a threat to sustainable agricultural production in semi-arid areas of Malawi. Overdependence on subsistence rain-fed agriculture in these areas calls for the identification of sustainable adaptation strategies. A study was therefore conducted in Chikwawa, a semi-arid district in southern Malawi, to: (1 assess community’s perception of a changing climate against empirical evidence, (2 determine their local adaptive measures, (3 evaluate the potential of irrigated agriculture as an adaptive measure in household food security and (4 challenges over access to available water resources. The study employed focus group discussions and key informant interviews to assess people’s perceptions of climate change and variability and their desired interventions. To validate the people’s perceptions, rainfall and temperature data for the period 1960–2010 were analysed. A participatory complete randomised experimental design in both rain-fed and dry season–irrigated conditions was conducted to assess a maize cropping system that would improve adaptation. The study established persistent declining yields from rain-fed production in part because of perennial rainfall failure. In response, the community has shifted its focus to irrigation as an adaptation strategy, which has in turn triggered water conflicts in the community over the control of the resource. Water legislation however fails to adequately provide for rules governing sharing of water resources between various stakeholders. This article therefore recommends development of an appropriate institutional framework that forms a strong basis for equitable distribution of water for irrigation in areas most vulnerable to extreme climate events – including droughts and floods.Keywords: Food Security; Climate Change and Variability; Rainfall Variability; Irrigation; Water Resources; Governance Crisis

  12. Getting Beyond First Base: Science-Society Communication for Climate Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garfin, G. M.

    2010-12-01

    At a 2009 international workshop on transboundary climate and water issues, a former World Bank official and current academic mentioned that “crisis, risk and uncertainty” are the three words that motivate decision-makers to act. However, decade-scale climate variability and trend-driven climate changes are phenomena characterized by creeping onset, diffuse and non-synchronous impacts, and complexity. Thus, there is a balancing act to addressing the complexity of uncertainties, while adequately assessing risk, and keeping the potential for crisis in focus without creating a “Chicken Little” situation. This presentation examines translational science approaches to three stages in the continuum from initial communication to societal action: raising awareness, building capacity, and making progress toward action. We examine the roles of scientists, knowledge brokers, decision makers, and the general public in the context of climate services. Although there is no “one size fits all” science communication method, we argue that best practices require that scientists pay particular attention to cultural and political sensitivities associated with decision contexts. We give examples from seasonal forecast communication, drought planning, climate literacy and education needs assessments, and the nexus of climate adaptation planning and uncertainty. In general, we find that constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong links between (a) predictions, impacts and solutions and (b) global to regional to local spatial scales. Often building partnerships for moving science information from observations to knowledge to decisions requires discussion support, a concept borrowed from Australian colleagues, which describes a multi-faceted and undervalued aspect of moving forward in adaptation planning: clarifying plausible cascades of interactions leading to potential impacts. Discussion support also fosters

  13. The Genetic Architecture of Climatic Adaptation of Tropical Cattle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto-Neto, Laercio R.; Reverter, Antonio; Prayaga, Kishore C.; Chan, Eva K. F.; Johnston, David J.; Hawken, Rachel J.; Fordyce, Geoffry; Garcia, Jose Fernando; Sonstegard, Tad S.; Bolormaa, Sunduimijid; Goddard, Michael E.; Burrow, Heather M.; Henshall, John M.; Lehnert, Sigrid A.; Barendse, William

    2014-01-01

    Adaptation of global food systems to climate change is essential to feed the world. Tropical cattle production, a mainstay of profitability for farmers in the developing world, is dominated by heat, lack of water, poor quality feedstuffs, parasites, and tropical diseases. In these systems European cattle suffer significant stock loss, and the cross breeding of taurine x indicine cattle is unpredictable due to the dilution of adaptation to heat and tropical diseases. We explored the genetic architecture of ten traits of tropical cattle production using genome wide association studies of 4,662 animals varying from 0% to 100% indicine. We show that nine of the ten have genetic architectures that include genes of major effect, and in one case, a single location that accounted for more than 71% of the genetic variation. One genetic region in particular had effects on parasite resistance, yearling weight, body condition score, coat colour and penile sheath score. This region, extending 20 Mb on BTA5, appeared to be under genetic selection possibly through maintenance of haplotypes by breeders. We found that the amount of genetic variation and the genetic correlations between traits did not depend upon the degree of indicine content in the animals. Climate change is expected to expand some conditions of the tropics to more temperate environments, which may impact negatively on global livestock health and production. Our results point to several important genes that have large effects on adaptation that could be introduced into more temperate cattle without detrimental effects on productivity. PMID:25419663

  14. The Social and Behavioural Aspects of Climate Change. Linking Vulnerability, Adaptation and Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martens, P.; Chang, Chiung Ting (eds.) [International Centre for Integrated Assessment and Sustainable Development ICIS, Maastricht University, Maastricht (Netherlands)

    2010-09-15

    Over the past few years, and certainly since the publication of the Stern Report , there has been increasing recognition that climate change is not only an environmental crisis, but one with important social and economic dimensions. There is now a growing need for multi-disciplinary research and for the science of climate change to be usefully translated for policy-makers. Until very recently, scientific and policy emphasis on climate change has focused almost exclusively on mitigation efforts: mechanisms and regulations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The success of such efforts to date is debatable. In fact, the impact of ever more stringent emission control programmes could potentially have enormous social consequences. Little effort has been expended on the exploration of a systematic evaluation of climate stabilisation benefits or the costs of adapting to a changed climate, let alone attempting to integrate different approaches. There is an increasing recognition that the key actors in the climate crisis also need to be preparing for change that is unavoidable. This has resulted in a greater consideration of vulnerability and adaptation. The book, based on the research programme 'Vulnerability, Adaptation and Mitigation' (VAM) which ran from 2004 to 2010, funded by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), presents a cluster of case studies of industries, communities and institutions which each show how vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation analyses can be integrated using social behavioural sciences. Each chapter makes specific recommendations for the studied industry sector, community or institution, analyses the latest research developments of the field and identifies priorities for future research. The book argues that the inherent complexity of climate change will ultimately require a much more integrated response both scientifically - to better understand multiple causes and impacts - as well as at the scientific

  15. Farmers' adaptation to climate change. The case of Morogoro, Tanzania

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Below, Till Benjamin

    2012-07-01

    variability and change is an acceptable second-best option to analyze their response to future climate change. In order to fulfill the research objectives, quantitative and qualitative data were collected at the household and the village level. Morogoro Region, located in central-eastern Tanzania, was selected as the case study area because of its documented vulnerability to climate change and because results of this area were expected to be interesting in a broader perspective. Based on a critical review of literature from social science and development economics, a climate change response framework was developed and variables hypothesized to influence farmers' adaptation were identified. Furthermore, an index-based approach to measure farmers' adaptedness was developed, the activity-based adaptation index (AAI).The data was analyzed using factor analysis, multiple linear regression, descriptive statistical methods and qualitative content analysis. The econometric analysis was undertaken in two steps, first a multiple linear regression analysis with original predictor variables was conducted, which was followed by the combination of a factor analysis with a regression analysis based on latent variables. The empirical results are discussed in the context of theoretical concepts of adaptation and the sustainable livelihood approach. The results of this study indicate that farmers' adaptation to climate change is determined by four factors, namely the production potential of the area, the availability of productive inputs, the socio-economic status of the household, and farmers' social and financial capital. Both, the factor analysis and the regression analysis with original variables reveal a similar structure of these determinants, highlighting the stability of the results. Furthermore, this study identified 33 practices potentially suitable for adaptation to climate change and currently used among Morogoro's smallholder farmers. From a methodological

  16. What kind of leadership do we need for climate adaptation? A framework for analyzing leadership objectives, functions, and tasks in climate change adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijerink, S.; Stiller, S.J.

    2013-01-01

    This paper explores the relevance of various leadership concepts for climate change adaptation. After defi ning four main leadership challenges which are derived from the key characteristics of climate adaptation issues, a review of modern leadership theories addressing these challenges is presented

  17. Agroforestry, livestock, fodder production and climate change adaptation and mitigation in East Africa: issues and options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dawson, Ian K; Carsan, Sammy; Franzel, Steve

    Agroforestry and livestock-keeping both have the potential to promote anthropogenic climate changeresilience, and understanding how they can support each other in this context is crucial. Here, we discuss relevant issues in East Africa, where recent agroforestry interventions to support livestock......Agroforestry and livestock-keeping both have the potential to promote anthropogenic climate changeresilience, and understanding how they can support each other in this context is crucial. Here, we discuss relevant issues in East Africa, where recent agroforestry interventions to support...... livestockkeeping have included the planting of mostly-exotic tree-fodders, and where most parts of the region are expected to become drier in the next decades, although smaller areas may become wetter. Wider cultivation and improved management of fodder trees provides adaptation and mitigation opportunities......- and future-climate tree species distribution modelling, important areas for future research....

  18. Impacts and adaptation for climate change in urban forests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, M. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    Changes to urban trees as a result of climate change were reviewed in order to aid urban forest managers in the development of adaptive climate change strategies. Various climate change models have predicted that winter and spring temperatures will increase. Higher amounts of precipitation are also anticipated. Higher temperatures will results in evapotranspiration, which will cause soil moisture levels to decline. Climatologists have also suggested that very hot days, winter storms and high rainfall events will increase in frequency. In addition, higher levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) will affect photosynthesis, with associated impacts on urban tree growth. Higher temperatures and longer growing seasons will allow insect populations to build up to higher levels, and warmer and dryer summers are likely to bring longer fire seasons and more severe fires. Urban trees under stress from drought and higher temperatures will be increasingly vulnerable to existing urban stressors such as air pollution and soil compaction. However, the ecological services provided by trees will become more valuable under future climate change regimes, particularly for shading and space cooling, as well as soil aeration and stabilization and the uptake of storm water. It was suggested that future tree growth may be enhanced on sites with adequate water and nutrients, but will probably decline in areas that are already marginal. It was recommended that urban forest managers assess the present vulnerability of trees to climate-related events in order to prepare for future change. Managers should also assess their capacity to implement various strategies through municipal and provincial partnerships. It was observed that decisions taken now about forest management will play out over several decades. It was concluded that maintaining a flexible and resilient urban forest management system is the best defence, as specific climate change impacts cannot be predicted. 18 refs., 4

  19. National strategy for climate change adaptation; Strategie nationale d'adaptation au changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    This book expresses the French State's view on the way to deal with the issue of climate change adaptation. After having recalled the ineluctability of some observed changes, the actors involved in this adaptation, and some guideline principles to implement adaptation, a first chapter describes the context: international mobilization, climate data evolution, definition of new criteria and critical thresholds, relationship between adaptation, alleviation and sustainable development, tensions between long and short terms. It discusses the objectives: public security and health, alleviation of inequalities with respect to risks, cost reduction, natural heritage preservation. Nine strategic axes are then identified: to develop knowledge, to strengthen the survey system, to inform, to educate and to make all actors aware, to promote a territory-based approach, to finance adaptation actions, to use regulatory and law instruments, to support voluntary approaches and the dialogue with private actors, to take the overseas peculiarity into account, and to contribute to international exchanges. The next chapters are respectively dealing with transverse approaches (water, risk prevention, health, and biodiversity), sector-based insights (agriculture, energy and industry, transports, building and housing, tourism, banks and insurance companies), medium-based approach (cities, littoral and seas, mountain, forest). The last part deals with the implementation issue

  20. Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

  1. Climate change and evolutionary adaptations at species' range margins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Jane K; Griffiths, Hannah M; Thomas, Chris D

    2011-01-01

    During recent climate warming, many insect species have shifted their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes. These expansions mirror those that occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum when species expanded from their ice age refugia. Postglacial range expansions have resulted in clines in genetic diversity across present-day distributions, with a reduction in genetic diversity observed in a wide range of insect taxa as one moves from the historical distribution core to the current range margin. Evolutionary increases in dispersal at expanding range boundaries are commonly observed in virtually all insects that have been studied, suggesting a positive feedback between range expansion and the evolution of traits that accelerate range expansion. The ubiquity of this phenomenon suggests that it is likely to be an important determinant of range changes. A better understanding of the extent and speed of adaptation will be crucial to the responses of biodiversity and ecosystems to climate change.

  2. Potential effects of climate change on ecosystem distribution in Alberta

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schneider, R.R.; Farr, D.; Boutin, S. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Biological Sciences; Hamann, A.; Wang, X. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept of Renewable Resources

    2009-05-15

    This paper proposed a method of extending the utility of bioclimatic envelope models for land use planning and adaptation under climate change. The trajectory of vegetation changes was set by the model, while the rate of transition was determined using a disturbance model. The method was used to explore potential changes to the distribution of ecosystems in Alberta under various climate and disturbance scenarios. The study showed that use of the disturbance model slowed the rate of ecosystem transition when compared with the results obtained from the bioclimatic envelope model alone. A northward shift of grasslands into large areas of existing parklands occurred over the simulation's 50-year time period. Between 12 and 21 per cent of Alberta's Boreal region was converted to parklands. Boreal transitions will initially occur in forests adjacent to current parklands and spread outwards. Fires over 100 km {sup 2} provided an indication of the anticipated size of potential transition patches. It was concluded that using a disturbance model to quantify transition logs can improve uncertainties in the parameter estimates of bioclimatic envelope models. 43 refs., 3 tabs., 3 figs.

  3. Can Payments for Ecosystem Services Contribute to Adaptation to Climate Change? Insights from a Watershed in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel van de Sand

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents new challenges for the management of social-ecological systems and the ecosystem services they provide. Although the instrument of payments for ecosystem services (PES has emerged as a promising tool to safeguard or enhance the provision of ecosystem services (ES, little attention has been paid to the potential role of PES in climate change adaptation. As an external stressor climate change has an impact on the social-ecological system in which PES takes place, including the various actors taking part in the PES scheme. Following a short description of the conceptual link between PES and adaptation to climate change, we provide practical insights into the relationship between PES and adaptation to climate change by presenting results from a case study of a rural watershed in Kenya. Drawing upon the results of a participatory vulnerability assessment among potential ecosystem service providers in Sasumua watershed north of Nairobi, we show that PES can play a role in enhancing adaptation to climate change by influencing certain elements of adaptive capacity and incentivizing adaptation measures. In addition, trade-offs and synergies between proposed measures under PES and adaptation to climate change are identified. Results show that although it may not be possible to establish PES schemes based on water utilities as the sole source of financing, embedding PES in a wider adaptation framework creates an opportunity for the development of watershed PES schemes in Africa and ensures their sustainability. We conclude that there is a need to embed PES in a wider institutional framework and that extra financial resources are needed to foster greater integration between PES and adaptation to climate change. This can be achieved through scaling up PES by bringing in other buyers and additional ecosystem services. PES can achieve important coadaptation benefits, but for more effective adaptation outcomes it needs to be combined

  4. Do Regional Disparities in Research on Climate and Water Influence Adaptive Capacity?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kiparsky, M.; Brooks, C. [Energy and Resources Group, University of California, 310 Barrows Hall, Berkeley, CA, 94720-3050 (United States); Gleick, P.H. [Pacific Institute, 654 13th Street, Oakland, CA, 94612 (United States)

    2006-08-15

    As part of a long-term effort to both improve access to information on climate change and freshwater resources, and to understand the state of the science, we compiled an electronic bibliography of scientific literature in that area. We analyzed the distribution of information on climatic impacts on freshwater resources, with an emphasis on differences between developed and developing regions as well as differences in the types and focus of research carried out among regions. There has been more research overall in developed countries than in the developing world. Proportionally more of the available research on natural and human systems pertains to developed regions, while most of the analysis done in developing countries is limited to higher-level climatology and hydrology. We argue that scientific information and understanding are important elements of the ability to adapt to potential climatic changes. The distribution of the scientific literature in our database suggests that the types of science most directly relevant to adaptive capacity are skewed towards developed countries, which may exacerbate existing disparities in adaptive capacity, and ultimately worsen the consequences of climatic impacts in developing countries.

  5. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water manegement in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J.C.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for loca

  6. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J.J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J.C.J.

    2015-01-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for loca

  7. Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

    2016-03-01

    Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to

  8. Olive cultivars adaptability in Southern Italy in present and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riccardi, M.; Alfieri, S.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; Di Tommasi, P.; Menenti, M.; De Lorenzi, F.

    2012-04-01

    The intra-specific biodiversity of agricultural crops is very significant and likely to provide the single major opportunity to cope with the effects of the changing climate on agricultural ecosystems. Assessment of adaptive capacity must rely on quantitative descriptions of plant responses to environmental factors (e.g. soil water availability, temperature). Moreover climate scenario needs to be downscaled to the spatial scale relevant to crop and farm management. Distributed models of crop response to environmental forcing might be used for this purpose, but severely constrained by the very scarce knowledge on variety-specific values of model parameters, thus limiting the potential exploitation of intra-specific biodiversity towards adaptation. We have developed an approach towards this objective that relies on two complementary elements: a)a distributed model of the soil plant atmosphere system to downscale climate scenarios to landscape units, where generic model parameters for each species are used; b)a data base on climatic requirements of as many varieties as feasible for each species relevant to the agricultural production system of a given region. By means of this approach, the adaptability of some olive cultivars was evaluated in a composite (hills and plains) area of Southern Italy (Valle Telesina, Campania Region, about 20.000 ha). The yearly average temperature is 22.5 °C and rainfall ranges between 600 and 900 mm. Two different climate scenarios were considered: current climate (1961-1990) and future climate (2021-2050). Future climate scenarios at low spatial resolution were generated with general circulation models (AOGCM) and down-scaled by means of a statistical model (Tomozeiu et al., 2007). The climate was represented by daily observations of minimum, maximum temperature and precipitation on a regular grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km; 50 realizations were used for future climate. The soil water regime of 45 soil units was described for

  9. Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroth, Götz; Läderach, Peter; Martinez-Valle, Armando Isaac; Bunn, Christian; Jassogne, Laurence

    2016-06-15

    The West African cocoa belt, reaching from Sierra Leone to southern Cameroon, is the origin of about 70% of the world's cocoa (Theobroma cacao), which in turn is the basis of the livelihoods of about two million farmers. We analyze cocoa's vulnerability to climate change in the West African cocoa belt, based on climate projections for the 2050s of 19 Global Circulation Models under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change intermediate emissions scenario RCP 6.0. We use a combination of a statistical model of climatic suitability (Maxent) and the analysis of individual, potentially limiting climate variables. We find that: 1) contrary to expectation, maximum dry season temperatures are projected to become as or more limiting for cocoa as dry season water availability; 2) to reduce the vulnerability of cocoa to excessive dry season temperatures, the systematic use of adaptation strategies like shade trees in cocoa farms will be necessary, in reversal of the current trend of shade reduction; 3) there is a strong differentiation of climate vulnerability within the cocoa belt, with the most vulnerable areas near the forest-savanna transition in Nigeria and eastern Côte d'Ivoire, and the least vulnerable areas in the southern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire and Liberia; 4) this spatial differentiation of climate vulnerability may lead to future shifts in cocoa production within the region, with the opportunity of partially compensating losses and gains, but also the risk of local production expansion leading to new deforestation. We conclude that adaptation strategies for cocoa in West Africa need to focus at several levels, from the consideration of tolerance to high temperatures in cocoa breeding programs, the promotion of shade trees in cocoa farms, to policies incentivizing the intensification of cocoa production on existing farms where future climate conditions permit and the establishment of new farms in already deforested areas.

  10. Timescales of transformational climate change adaptation in sub-Saharan African agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rippke, Ulrike; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Jarvis, Andy; Vermeulen, Sonja J.; Parker, Louis; Mer, Flora; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Challinor, Andrew J.; Howden, Mark

    2016-06-01

    Climate change is projected to constitute a significant threat to food security if no adaptation actions are taken. Transformation of agricultural systems, for example switching crop types or moving out of agriculture, is projected to be necessary in some cases. However, little attention has been paid to the timing of these transformations. Here, we develop a temporal uncertainty framework using the CMIP5 ensemble to assess when and where cultivation of key crops in sub-Saharan Africa becomes unviable. We report potential transformational changes for all major crops during the twenty-first century, as climates shift and areas become unsuitable. For most crops, however, transformation is limited to small pockets (banana is transformation more widespread (~30% area for maize and banana, 60% for beans). We envisage three overlapping adaptation phases to enable projected transformational changes: an incremental adaptation phase focused on improvements to crops and management, a preparatory phase that establishes appropriate policies and enabling environments, and a transformational adaptation phase in which farmers substitute crops, explore alternative livelihoods strategies, or relocate. To best align policies with production triggers for no-regret actions, monitoring capacities to track farming systems as well as climate are needed.

  11. Simulation and Evaluation of Urban Growth for Germany Including Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jana Hoymann

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Decision-makers in the fields of urban and regional planning in Germany face new challenges. High rates of urban sprawl need to be reduced by increased inner-urban development while settlements have to adapt to climate change and contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions at the same time. In this study, we analyze conflicts in the management of urban areas and develop integrated sustainable land use strategies for Germany. The spatial explicit land use change model Land Use Scanner is used to simulate alternative scenarios of land use change for Germany for 2030. A multi-criteria analysis is set up based on these scenarios and based on a set of indicators. They are used to measure whether the mitigation and adaptation objectives can be achieved and to uncover conflicts between these aims. The results show that the built-up and transport area development can be influenced both in terms of magnitude and spatial distribution to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. Strengthening the inner-urban development is particularly effective in terms of reducing built-up and transport area development. It is possible to reduce built-up and transport area development to approximately 30 ha per day in 2030, which matches the sustainability objective of the German Federal Government for the year 2020. In the case of adaptation to climate change, the inclusion of extreme flood events in the context of spatial planning requirements may contribute to a reduction of the damage potential.

  12. Adaptation services of floodplains and wetlands under transformational climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colloff, Matthew; Lavorel, Sandra; Wise, Russell M; Dunlop, Michael; Overton, Ian C; Williams, Kristen J

    2016-06-01

    Adaptation services are the ecosystem processes and services that benefit people by increasing their ability to adapt to change. Benefits may accrue from existing but newly used services where ecosystems persist or from novel services supplied following ecosystem transformation. Ecosystem properties that enable persistence or transformation are important adaptation services because they support future options. The adaptation services approach can be applied to decisions on trade-offs between currently valued services and benefits from maintaining future options. For example, ecosystem functions and services of floodplains depend on river flows. In those regions of the world where climate change projections are for hotter, drier conditions, floods will be less frequent and floodplains will either persist, though with modified structure and function, or transform to terrestrial (flood-independent) ecosystems. Many currently valued ecosystem services will reduce in supply or become unavailable, but new options are provided by adaptation services. We present a case study from the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia, for operationalizing the adaptation services concept for floodplains and wetlands. We found large changes in flow and flood regimes are likely under a scenario of +1.6°C by 2030, even with additional water restored to rivers under the proposed Murray-Darling Basin Plan. We predict major changes to floodplain ecosystems, including contraction of riparian forests and woodlands and expansion of terrestrial, drought-tolerant vegetation communities. Examples of adaptation services under this scenario include substitution of irrigated agriculture with dryland cropping and floodplain grazing; mitigation of damage from rarer, extreme floods; and increased tourism, recreational, and cultural values derived from fewer, smaller wetlands that can be maintained with environmental flows. Management for adaptation services will require decisions on where intervention can

  13. Estimating the limits of adaptation from historical behaviour: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the technical analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in a number of economic sectors [1]. The main analysis presents projections of climate impacts with an assumption of "no adaptation". Yet, historically, when the climate imposed an economic cost upon society, adaptive responses were taken to minimise these costs. These adaptive behaviours, both autonomous and planned, can be expected to occur as climate impacts increase in the future. To understand the extent to which adaptation might decrease some of the worst impacts of climate change, we empirically estimate adaptive responses. We do this in three sectors considered in the analysis - crop yield, crime, and mortality - and estimate adaptive capacity in two steps. First, looking at changes in climate impacts through time, we identify a historical rate of adaptation. Second, spatial differences in climate impacts are then used to stratify regions into more adapted or less adapted based on climate averages. As these averages change across counties in the US, we allow each to become more adapted at the rate identified in step one. We are then able to estimate the residual damages, assuming that only the historical adaptive behaviours have taken place (fig 1). Importantly, we are unable to estimate any costs associated with these adaptations, nor are we able to estimate more novel (for example, new technological discoveries) or more disruptive (for example, migration) adaptive behaviours. However, an important insight is that historical adaptive behaviours may not be capable of reducing the worst impacts of climate change. The persistence of impacts in even the most exposed areas indicates that there are non-trivial costs associated with adaptation that will need to be met from other sources or through novel behavioural changes. References: [1] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate

  14. Unintended outcomes of farmers' adaptation to climate variability: deforestation and conservation in Calakmul and Maya biosphere reserves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Rodriguez-Solorzano

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Minimizing the impact of climate change on farmer livelihoods is crucial, but adaptation efforts may have unintended consequences for ecosystems, with potential impacts on farmers' welfare. Unintended outcomes of climate adaptation strategies have been widely discussed, however, empirical exploration has been neglected. Grounded in scholarship on climate adaptation, environmental governance, social-ecological systems, and land-use change, this paper studies whether farmers' climate adaptation contributes to deforestation or forest conservation. The paper draws on interviews with 353 farmers from 46 communities in Calakmul Biosphere Reserve in Mexico and Maya Biosphere Reserve in Guatemala. Farmers in the area of study have implemented adaptation strategies that people around the world have used for centuries, including migration, diversification, savings, and pooling. The findings show that climate adaptation can increase deforestation or support forest conservation depending on the type of adaptation strategy farmers implement. Saving, based on cattle ranching, is a deforestation-driving strategy. The choice of this strategy is influenced by distance to the commercial and administrative center and cash benefits from the forest. Deforestation can have a negative impact on farmers' welfare, as well as harm biodiversity and contribute to increased climate change. Thus, deforestation-driving adaptation strategies may be ineffective. However, diversification, based on off-farm jobs and operating provision shops, is a conservation-driving strategy influenced by distance as well as by family size. Farmers who choose diversification to adapt may contribute to a virtuous circle in which livelihood improvement in the short term leads to enhanced social-ecological resilience in the longer term. The need for farmers to implement adaptation strategies thus represents great risk but also opportunities.

  15. Future tendencies of climate indicators important for adaptation and mitigation strategies in forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galos, Borbala; Hänsler, Andreas; Gulyas, Krisztina; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel

    2014-05-01

    Climate change is expected to have severe impacts in the forestry sector, especially in low-elevation regions in Southeast Europe, where forests are vulnerable and sensitive to the increasing probability and severity of climatic extremes, especially to droughts. For providing information about the most important regional and local risks and mitigation options for the Carpathian basin, a GIS-supported Decision Support System is under development. This study focuses on the future tendencies of climate indicators that determine the distribution, growth, health status and production of forests as well as the potential pests and diseases. For the analyses the climate database of the Decision Support System has been applied, which contains daily time series for precipitation and temperature means and extremes as well as derived climate indices for 1961-2100. For the future time period, simulation results of 12 regional climate models are included (www.ensembles-eu.org) based on the A1B emission scenario. The main results can be summarized as follows: · The projected change of the climate indices (e.g. total number of hot days, frost days, dry days, consecutive dry periods) and forestry indices (e.g. Ellenberg climate quotient, Forestry aridity index; Tolerance index for beech) indicates the warming and drying of the growing season towards the end of the 21st century. These can have severe consequences on the ecosystem services of forests. · The climatic suitable area of the native tree species is projected to move northwards and upwards in the mountains, respectively. For beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) this shift would mean the drastic shrink of the distribution area in the analyzed region. · The characteristic climate conditions that are expected in the Carpathian basin in the second half of the century, are now located southeastern from the case study region. In this way, the potential future provenance regions can be determined. Results provide input for the climate

  16. Climate factors play a limited role for past adaptation strategies in West Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Nielsen, Jonas Østergaard;

    2010-01-01

    The Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa has experienced recurrent droughts since the mid-1970s and today there is considerable concern for how this region will be able to adapt to future climate change. To develop well targeted adaptation strategies, the relative importance of climate factors...... to be reflected in national adaptation strategies in the region....

  17. Developing services for climate impact and adaptation baseline information and methodologies for the Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huggel, C.

    2012-04-01

    Impacts of climate change are observed and projected across a range of ecosystems and economic sectors, and mountain regions thereby rank among the hotspots of climate change. The Andes are considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, not only due to fragile ecosystems but also due to the high vulnerability of the population. Natural resources such as water systems play a critical role and are observed and projected to be seriously affected. Adaptation to climate change impacts is therefore crucial to contain the negative effects on the population. Adaptation projects require information on the climate and affected socio-environmental systems. There is, however, generally a lack of methodological guidelines how to generate the necessary scientific information and how to communicate to implementing governmental and non-governmental institutions. This is particularly important in view of the international funds for adaptation such as the Green Climate Fund established and set into process at the UNFCCC Conferences of the Parties in Cancun 2010 and Durban 2011. To facilitate this process international and regional organizations (World Bank and Andean Community) and a consortium of research institutions have joined forces to develop and define comprehensive methodologies for baseline and climate change impact assessments for the Andes, with an application potential to other mountain regions (AndesPlus project). Considered are the climatological baseline of a region, and the assessment of trends based on ground meteorological stations, reanalysis data, and satellite information. A challenge is the scarcity of climate information in the Andes, and the complex climatology of the mountain terrain. A climate data platform has been developed for the southern Peruvian Andes and is a key element for climate data service and exchange. Water resources are among the key livelihood components for the Andean population, and local and national economy, in particular for

  18. Climate-induced community relocations: using integrated social-ecological assessments to foster adaptation and resilience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robin Bronen

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme weather events coupled with sea level rise and erosion will cause coastal and riverine areas where people live and maintain livelihoods to disappear permanently. Adaptation to these environmental changes, including the permanent relocation of millions of people, requires new governance tools. In the USA, local governments, often with state-level and national-level support, will be primarily responsible for protecting residents from climate-change impacts and implementing policies needed to protect their welfare. Government agencies have a variety of tools to facilitate protection in place and managed coastal retreat but have very limited tools to facilitate community relocation. In addition, no institutional mechanism currently exists to determine whether and when preventive relocation needs to occur to protect people from climate change impacts. Based on research involving four Alaska Native communities threatened by climate-induced environmental impacts, I propose the design and implementation of an adaptive governance framework to respond to the need to relocate populations. In this context, adaptive governance means the ability of institutions to dynamically respond to climate change impacts. A component of this adaptive governance framework is a social-ecological monitoring and assessment tool that can facilitate collaborative knowledge production by community residents and governance institutions to guide sustainable adaptation strategies and determine whether and when relocation needs to occur. The framework, including the monitoring and assessment tool, has not been systematically tested. However, the potential use of this tool is discussed by drawing on empirical examples of Alaskan communities faced with accelerating rates of erosion.

  19. Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-08-01

    Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies.

  20. Quantification of climate tourism potential of Croatia based on measured data and regional modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brosy, Caroline; Zaninovic, Ksenija; Matzarakis, Andreas

    2014-08-01

    Tourism is one of the most important economic sectors in Croatia. The Adriatic coast is a popular travel destination for tourists, especially during the summer months. During their activities, tourists are affected by atmospheric conditions and therefore by weather and climate. Therefore, it is important to have reliable information about thermal conditions as well as their impacts on human beings. Here, the climate tourism potential of Croatia is presented and quantified on the basis of three selected stations in different climatic regions. The physiologically equivalent temperature is used for analysis as well as other climatic parameters relevant for tourism and recreation. The results already point to hot conditions for outdoor activities in summer during afternoons, especially along the coast but also for continental regions, resulting in a reduction of the climate tourism potential. In the future, this trend looks set to increase, possibly leading to a changing tourism sector in Croatia requiring adaptation and new strategies.

  1. Drought Monitoring, Prediction and Adaptation under Climatic Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Z.; Ma, Y.; van der Velde, R.; Dente, L.; Wang, L.; Timmermans, J.; Menenti, M.; Sobrino, J.; Li, Z.-L.; Verhoef, W.; Jia, L.; Wen, J.; He, Y.; Wan, L.; Liu, Q. H.; Yu, Q.; Li, X.; Zhong, L.; Zeng, Y.; Tian, X.; Li, L.; Qin, C.; Timmermans, W.; van Helvoirt, M.; van der Tol, C.; Salama, M. S.; Vekerdy, Z.

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this project was to develop a quantitative and operational system for nationwide drought monitoring and drought impact assessment for application in agriculture and water resources and environment in China using ESA, Chinese and other relevant satellite data as major data source in combination with other data (e.g. meteorological and drought statistics, etc.). An extension to drought prediction and adaptation to climate change had been made compared to the Dragon I drought monitoring project. In detail the project generated: (1) a preoperational real time drought monitoring and prediction system, (2) improved understanding of land surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions over different terrains (e.g. agriculture land, forest, Gobi desert, high plateau, polar environment), (3) algorithms for estimation of land surface parameters and heat fluxes, (4) assessment of economic loss caused by drought and adaptation measures under climatic change, (5) training of young scientists in the area of water, climate and environment. An operational system will be established by the China Meteorological Administration’s National Meteorological Center (CMA/NMC) to provide information concerning the drought evolution situation and to support drought relief decision-making. We report on advances in retrievals of soil moisture using in-situ observations, satellite sensors and numerical modeling. The accuracy of available soil moisture products are assessed using in-situ data collected in the soil moisture monitoring networks developed for this and other projects. The use of these satellite retrievals in drought monitoring is demonstrated by analyzing the droughts in China and the generated drought assessment indices are compared to current practice by CMA.

  2. Climate variability and change in Ethiopia : exploring impacts and adaptation options for cereal production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kassie, B.T.

    2014-01-01

    Key words: Climate change, Adaptation, Crop modelling, Uncertainty, Maize (Zea mays), Central Rift Valley. Smallholder farmers in Ethiopia have been facing severe climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall and severe droughts that negativelyaffect their livelihoods.Anticipated

  3. Exploring Opportunities for Promoting Synergies between Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Forest Carbon Initiatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugene L. Chia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available There is growing interest in designing and implementing climate change mitigation and adaptation (M + A in synergy in the forest and land use sectors. However, there is limited knowledge on how the planning and promotion of synergies between M + A can be operationalized in the current efforts to mitigate climate change through forest carbon. This paper contributes to fill this knowledge gap by exploring ways of planning and promoting M + A synergy outcomes in forest carbon initiatives. It examines eight guidelines that are widely used in designing and implementing forest carbon initiatives. Four guiding principles with a number of criteria that are relevant for planning synergy outcomes in forest carbon activities are proposed. The guidelines for developing forest carbon initiatives need to demonstrate that (1 the health of forest ecosystems is maintained or enhanced; (2 the adaptive capacity of forest-dependent communities is ensured; (3 carbon and adaptation benefits are monitored and verified; and (4 adaptation outcomes are anticipated and planned in forest carbon initiatives. The forest carbon project development guidelines can encourage the integration of adaptation in forest carbon initiatives. However, their current efforts guiding projects and programs to deliver biodiversity and environmental benefits, ecosystem services, and socioeconomic benefits are not considered explicitly as efforts towards enhancing adaptation. An approach for incentivizing and motivating project developers, guideline setters, and offset buyers is imperative in order to enable existing guidelines to make clear contributions to adaptation goals. We highlight and discuss potential ways of incentivizing and motivating the explicit planning and promotion of adaptation outcomes in forest carbon initiatives.

  4. Challenges and Opportunities to Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Development Among Tanzanian Rural Communities Challenges and Opportunities to Climate Change Adaptation and Sustainable Development Among Tanzanian Rural Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Esther W. Dungumaro

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In more recent years climate change impacts have been obvious around the globe. This non-contentious reality has resulted in various global initiatives to reduce climate change impacts. However, differences exist in opportunities and capacity to adaptation. This paper, descriptive in nature, draws heavily from literature and also uses 2002 Tanzanian population and housing census to identify and discuss major challenges and opportunities to climate change adaptation and sustainable development in rural areas of Tanzania. Two groups are of focus; pastoralist herders and smallholder farmers. Analysis indicates that opportunities to climate change adaptation among rural community include their knowledge and experience. Challenges are centered on the pervasive poverty, rapid population increase and high illiteracy rates. Forces beyond their control including funds and governance also present definite limits to climate change adaptation. The paper suggests among others, the effective implementation of two top policies: education and social security funding.In more recent years climate change impacts have been obvious around the globe. This non-contentious reality has resulted in various global initiatives to reduce climate change impacts. However, differences exist in opportunities and capacity to adaptation. This paper, descriptive in nature, draws heavily from literature and also uses 2002 Tanzanian population and housing census to identify and discuss major challenges and opportunities to climate change adaptation and sustainable development in rural areas of Tanzania. Two groups are of focus; pastoralist herders and smallholder farmers. Analysis indicates that opportunities to climate change adaptation among rural community include their knowledge and experience. Challenges are centered on the pervasive poverty, rapid population increase and high illiteracy rates. Forces beyond their control including funds and governance also present definite

  5. How Can African Agriculture Adapt to Climate Change? A Counterfactual Analysis from Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    2012-01-01

    We analyze the impact of different adaptation strategies on crop net revenues in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia. We estimate a multinomial endogenous switching regression model of climate change adaptation and crop net revenues and implement a counterfactual analysis. Households data are combined with spatial climate data. We find that adaptation to climate change based upon a portfolio of strategies significantly increases farm net revenues. Changing crop varieties has a positive and significant...

  6. The adaptation rate of terrestrial ecosystems as a critical factor in global climate dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuessler, J.S.; Gassmann, F. [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    A conceptual climate model describing regional two-way atmosphere-vegetation interaction has been extended by a simple qualitative scheme of ecosystem adaptation to drought stress. The results of this explorative study indicate that the role of terrestrial vegetation under different forcing scenarios depends crucially on the rate of the ecosystems adaptation to drought stress. The faster the adaptation of important ecosystems such as forests the better global climate is protected from abrupt climate changes. (author) 1 fig., 3 refs.

  7. The Role of Culture in Adaptation and Vulnerability to Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, J. O.; Sandholt, I.; Mertz, O.; Mbow, C.

    2008-12-01

    AMMA (African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses) aims to improve our ability to forecast weather and climate in the West African region as well as understanding the impacts and adaptive responses of people and environment. While the complexity and unpredictability of the West African monsoon systems provide an intriguing challenge for science, it is potentially devastating for the many West African people affected by it. Across the region from Senegal to Niger people are trying to deal with and negotiate the consequences of this complexity and unpredictability. The objective of the AMMA Word Package 3.2 is to understand and map how they do this and to attempt to single out the importance of climate factors for local land use and livelihood strategies, decision-making and social relations. Researchers from Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria and Denmark developed a common questionnaire and interview guide that was implemented at 16 field sites in 5 countries. The sites were selected to represent the region and were located along north- south and east-west transects, and included both agricultural and pastoral locations. Moreover, in depth studies took place in several sites. In one of these, located in Northern Burkina Faso, there was a specific focus on how adaptation to climate change is related to ethnicity and the issue of values and culture in adaptation and vulnerability to climate change was raised. Strategies of two ethnic groups, Rimaiibe and Fulbe, were compared and it was shown that despite their presence in the same physical environment and their shared experience of climate change, the two groups have adapted very different strategies due to cultural values and historical relations. This has had profound impacts on the relations between the two ethnic groups. The former masters, Fulbe, have been much less successful with their strategies than their former slaves, Rimaiibe, and today the latter group is the dominant one within the village. It is

  8. A Climate Change Adaptation Planning Process for Low-Lying, Communities Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristi Tatebe

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available While the province of British Columbia (BC, Canada, provides guidelines for flood risk management, it is local governments’ responsibility to delineate their own flood vulnerability, assess their risk, and integrate these with planning policies to implement adaptive action. However, barriers such as the lack of locally specific data and public perceptions about adaptation options mean that local governments must address the need for adaptation planning within a context of scientific uncertainty, while building public support for difficult choices on flood-related climate policy and action. This research demonstrates a process to model, visualize and evaluate potential flood impacts and adaptation options for the community of Delta, in Metro Vancouver, across economic, social and environmental perspectives. Visualizations in 2D and 3D, based on hydrological modeling of breach events for existing dike infrastructure, future sea level rise and storm surges, are generated collaboratively, together with future adaptation scenarios assessed against quantitative and qualitative indicators. This ‘visioning package’ is being used with staff and a citizens’ Working Group to assess the performance, policy implications and social acceptability of the adaptation strategies. Recommendations based on the experience of the initiative are provided that can facilitate sustainable future adaptation actions and decision-making in Delta and other jurisdictions.

  9. Review and Quantitative Analysis of Indices of Climate Change Exposure, Adaptive Capacity, Sensitivity, and Impacts

    OpenAIRE

    Füssel, Hans-Martin

    2010-01-01

    Adaptation to climate change is necessary, in addition to mitigation of climate change, to avoid unacceptable impacts of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC 2007]. UNFCCC Article 4 requires developed countries to assist developing countries that are "particularly vulnerable" to climate change in meeting costs of adaptation to its adverse effects. As a result, three funds have been established under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol to provide financial resources for assessing, planning, and implem...

  10. Transient scenarios for robust climate change adaptation illustrated for water management in The Netherlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haasnoot, M.; Schellekens, J.; Beersma, J. J.; Middelkoop, H.; Kwadijk, J. C. J.

    2015-10-01

    Climate scenarios are used to explore impacts of possible future climates and to assess the robustness of adaptation actions across a range of futures. Time-dependent climate scenarios are commonly used in mitigation studies. However, despite the dynamic nature of adaptation, most scenarios for local or regional decision making on climate adaptation are static ‘endpoint’ projections. This paper describes the development and use of transient (time-dependent) scenarios by means of a case on water management in the Netherlands. Relevant boundary conditions (sea level, precipitation and evaporation) were constructed by generating an ensemble of synthetic time-series with a rainfall generator and a transient delta change method. Climate change impacted river flows were then generated with a hydrological simulation model for the Rhine basin. The transient scenarios were applied in model simulations and game experiments. We argue that there are at least three important assets of using transient scenarios for supporting robust climate adaptation: (1) raise awareness about (a) the implications of climate variability and climate change for decision making and (b) the difficulty of finding proof of climate change in relevant variables for water management; (2) assessment of when to adapt by identifying adaptation tipping points which can then be used to explore adaptation pathways, and (3) identification of triggers for climate adaptation.

  11. Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

    2013-12-01

    Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of a waterborne infectious disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of northern India. A conceptual framework is presented for climate exposure response relationships based on studies from different countries, as empirical studies and appropriate epidemiological data sets for India are lacking. Four climate variables are included: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. Applying the conceptual framework to the latest regional climate projections for northern India shows increases between present and future (2040s), varying spatially from no change to an increase of 21% in diarrhoea incidences, with 13.1% increase on average for the Ganges basin. We discuss three types of measures against diarrhoeal disease: reactive actions, preventive actions and national policy options. Preventive actions have the potential to counterbalance this expected increase. However, given the limited progress in reducing incidences over the past decade consorted actions and effective implementation and integration of existing policies are needed.

  12. How climate compatible are livelihood adaptation strategies and development programs in rural Indonesia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.M. Wise

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Achieving climate compatible development (CCD is a necessity in developing countries, but there are few examples of requisite planning processes, or manifestations of CCD. This paper presents a multi-stakeholder, participatory planning process designed to screen and prioritise rural livelihood adaptation strategies against nine CCD criteria. The process also integrated three principles of adaptation pathways: interventions should be (1 ‘no regrets’ and maintain reversibility to avoid mal-adaptation; (2 address both proximate and underlying systemic drivers of community vulnerability; and (3 linked across spatial scales and jurisdictional levels to promote coordination. Using examples of two rural sub-districts in Indonesia, we demonstrate the process and resulting CCD strategies. Priority strategies varied between the sub-districts but all reflected standard development interventions: water management, intensification or diversification of agriculture and aquaculture, education, health, food security and skills-building for communities. Strategies delivered co-benefits for human development and ecosystem services and hence adaptive capacity, but greenhouse mitigation co-benefits were less significant. Actions to deliver the strategies’ objectives were screened for reversibility, and a minority were potentially mal-adaptive (i.e. path dependent, disproportionately burdening the most vulnerable, reducing incentives to adapt, or increasing greenhouse gas emissions yet highly feasible. These related to infrastructure, which paradoxically is necessary to deliver ‘soft’ adaptation benefits (i.e. road access to health services. Only a small minority of transformative strategies addressed the systemic (i.e. institutional and political drivers of vulnerability. Strategies were well-matched by development programs, suggesting that current interventions mirror CCD. However, development programs tackled fewer systemic drivers, were poorly

  13. Climate vs. soil factors in local adaptation of two common plant species

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Macel, M.; Lawson, C.S.; Mortimer, S.R.; Smilauerova, M.; Bischoff, A.; Crémieux, L.; Dolezal, J.; Edwards, A.R.; Lanta, V.; Bezemer, T.M.; Putten, van der W.H.; Igual, J.M.; Rodriguez-Barrueco, C.; Müller-Schärer, H.; Steinger, T.

    2007-01-01

    Evolutionary theory suggests that divergent natural selection in heterogeneous environments can result in locally adapted plant genotypes. To understand local adaptation it is important to study the ecological factors responsible for divergent selection. At a continental scale, variation in climate

  14. A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Brown

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  15. A health impact assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

    2014-12-01

    This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

  16. Climate change adaptation and forests in South Asia: Policy for multiple stakeholders

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deshingkar, P.

    1997-12-31

    Moving from a general understanding of the potential dangers of climate change to real policy and investment requires changes in priorities at the level of government as well as the individual. Information should be disseminated through regional technical co-operation as well as improved communication between relevant institutions within countries. Besides fulfilling scientific and economic criteria for sustainability, forest adaption strategies in South asian countries should aim to be participatory and low cost. In the short term, maximizing the utility of existing institutions and skills may be more practical. The removal of market distortions will also enhance adaptive capacity. Continued research and technological innovation must accompany efforts to change management practices. The immediate priority for donor assistance in this area is to conduct vulnerability assessments, evaluate the constraints and develop a menu of adaption options based on multi criteria analysis of different objectives

  17. Establishment of an indicator concept for the German strategy on adaptation to climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schoenthaler, Konstanze; Andrian-Werburg, Stefan von; Wulfert, Katrin [Bosch und Partner GmbH, Muenchen (Germany); Luthardt, Vera; Kreinsen, Beatrice; Schultz-Sternberg, R.; Hommel, Robert [Hochschule fuer Nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (Germany)

    2010-11-15

    Even if we succeed in achieving the EU target of reducing global warming to 2 C, it will be absolutely essential to adapt to changing climatic conditions. The greenhouse gases currently present in the atmosphere will influence the climate in coming decades. The day on which it is quite clear which climatic scenario prevails, so that it is possible to model all relevant processes down to regional level, will be the day on which it is too late to adapt to the actual scenario. Our endeavours to adapt to climate change do not mean, however, that we can neglect to take measures in order to reduce the output of greenhouse gases. It is important to remember that on their own, neither adaptation nor mitigation can prevent the grave impacts resulting from climate change. In fact, they complement each other meaningfully thus helping to alleviate the risks of climate change. On 17th December 2008 the German Federal Cabinet adopted the DAS (German Strategy for the Adaptation to Climate Change), (Bundesregierung 2008). The DAS has created the framework for adapting to the consequences of climate change in Germany. First and fore-most, the DAS contributes its guidelines at Federal level, to provide a guideline for agents at other levels. The Strategy lays the foundation for a medium-term process. In conjunction with the individual Federal States and other groups representing various sectors of society, the Strategy provides a step-by-step assessment of the risks of climate change. Furthermore, it states the potential requirements for action, and defines the appropriate goals and potential adaptation measures to be developed and implemented in this process. In due course, the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) will design a comprehensive set of tools to support and advance the DAS. An integral part of this will be the Special Information System 'Adaptation' (FISKA) and an Indicator System to aid adaptation. The latter is one of the key tasks identified for the DAS. As far

  18. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

  19. The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grüneis, Heidelinde; Penker, Marianne; Höferl, Karl-Michael

    2016-01-01

    Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.

  20. Similarities in butterfly emergence dates among populations suggest local adaptation to climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, David B; Oliver, Tom H; Botham, Marc S; Beckmann, Bjorn; Brereton, Tom; Dennis, Roger L H; Harrower, Colin; Phillimore, Albert B; Thomas, Jeremy A

    2015-09-01

    Phenology shifts are the most widely cited examples of the biological impact of climate change, yet there are few assessments of potential effects on the fitness of individual organisms or the persistence of populations. Despite extensive evidence of climate-driven advances in phenological events over recent decades, comparable patterns across species' geographic ranges have seldom been described. Even fewer studies have quantified concurrent spatial gradients and temporal trends between phenology and climate. Here we analyse a large data set (~129 000 phenology measures) over 37 years across the UK to provide the first phylogenetic comparative analysis of the relative roles of plasticity and local adaptation in generating spatial and temporal patterns in butterfly mean flight dates. Although populations of all species exhibit a plastic response to temperature, with adult emergence dates earlier in warmer years by an average of 6.4 days per °C, among-population differences are significantly lower on average, at 4.3 days per °C. Emergence dates of most species are more synchronised over their geographic range than is predicted by their relationship between mean flight date and temperature over time, suggesting local adaptation. Biological traits of species only weakly explained the variation in differences between space-temperature and time-temperature phenological responses, suggesting that multiple mechanisms may operate to maintain local adaptation. As niche models assume constant relationships between occurrence and environmental conditions across a species' entire range, an important implication of the temperature-mediated local adaptation detected here is that populations of insects are much more sensitive to future climate changes than current projections suggest.

  1. Global Potential for Hydro-generated Electricity and Climate Change Impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leon, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.; Li, H. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Hydropower is a dominant renewable energy source at the global level, accounting for more than 15% of the world's total power supply. It is also very vulnerable to climate change. Improved understanding of climate change impact on hydropower can help develop adaptation measures to increase the resilience of energy system. In this study, we developed a comprehensive estimate of global hydropower potential using runoff and stream flow data derived from a global hydrologic model with a river routing sub-model, along with turbine technology performance, cost assumptions, and environmental consideration (Figure 1). We find that hydropower has the potential to supply a significant portion of the world energy needs, although this potential varies substantially by regions. Resources in a number of countries exceed by multiple folds the total current demand for electricity, e.g., Russia and Indonesia. A sensitivity analysis indicates that hydropower potential can be highly sensitive to a number of parameters including designed flow for capacity, cost and financing, turbine efficiency, and stream flow. The climate change impact on hydropower potential was evaluated by using runoff outputs from 4 climate models (HadCM3, PCM, CGCM2, and CSIRO2). It was found that the climate change on hydropower shows large variation not only by regions, but also climate models, and this demonstrates the importance of incorporating climate change into infrastructure-planning at the regional level though the existing uncertainties.

  2. Regional modeling of large wildfires under current and potential future climates in Colorado and Wyoming, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Amanda; Kumar, Sunil; Jarnevich, Catherine S.

    2016-01-01

    Regional analysis of large wildfire potential given climate change scenarios is crucial to understanding areas most at risk in the future, yet wildfire models are not often developed and tested at this spatial scale. We fit three historical climate suitability models for large wildfires (i.e. ≥ 400 ha) in Colorado andWyoming using topography and decadal climate averages corresponding to wildfire occurrence at the same temporal scale. The historical models classified points of known large wildfire occurrence with high accuracies. Using a novel approach in wildfire modeling, we applied the historical models to independent climate and wildfire datasets, and the resulting sensitivities were 0.75, 0.81, and 0.83 for Maxent, Generalized Linear, and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines, respectively. We projected the historic models into future climate space using data from 15 global circulation models and two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Maps from these geospatial analyses can be used to evaluate the changing spatial distribution of climate suitability of large wildfires in these states. April relative humidity was the most important covariate in all models, providing insight to the climate space of large wildfires in this region. These methods incorporate monthly and seasonal climate averages at a spatial resolution relevant to land management (i.e. 1 km2) and provide a tool that can be modified for other regions of North America, or adapted for other parts of the world.

  3. A collection of Australian Drosophila datasets on climate adaptation and species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hangartner, Sandra B; Hoffmann, Ary A; Smith, Ailie; Griffin, Philippa C

    2015-11-24

    The Australian Drosophila Ecology and Evolution Resource (ADEER) collates Australian datasets on drosophilid flies, which are aimed at investigating questions around climate adaptation, species distribution limits and population genetics. Australian drosophilid species are diverse in climatic tolerance, geographic distribution and behaviour. Many species are restricted to the tropics, a few are temperate specialists, and some have broad distributions across climatic regions. Whereas some species show adaptability to climate changes through genetic and plastic changes, other species have limited adaptive capacity. This knowledge has been used to identify traits and genetic polymorphisms involved in climate change adaptation and build predictive models of responses to climate change. ADEER brings together 103 datasets from 39 studies published between 1982-2013 in a single online resource. All datasets can be downloaded freely in full, along with maps and other visualisations. These historical datasets are preserved for future studies, which will be especially useful for assessing climate-related changes over time.

  4. Understanding Farmer Perspectives on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation: The Roles of Trust in Sources of Climate Information, Climate Change Beliefs, and Perceived Risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, J Gordon; Morton, Lois Wright; Hobbs, Jon

    2015-02-01

    Agriculture is vulnerable to climate change and a source of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Farmers face pressures to adjust agricultural systems to make them more resilient in the face of increasingly variable weather (adaptation) and reduce GHG production (mitigation). This research examines relationships between Iowa farmers' trust in environmental or agricultural interest groups as sources of climate information, climate change beliefs, perceived climate risks to agriculture, and support for adaptation and mitigation responses. Results indicate that beliefs varied with trust, and beliefs in turn had a significant direct effect on perceived risks from climate change. Support for adaptation varied with perceived risks, while attitudes toward GHG reduction (mitigation) were associated predominantly with variation in beliefs. Most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but few endorsed GHG reduction, suggesting that outreach should focus on interventions that have adaptive and mitigative properties (e.g., reduced tillage, improved fertilizer management).

  5. Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

  6. The Influence of Forums and Multilevel Governance on the Climate Adaptation Practices of Australian Organizations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorraine E. Bates

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available To date, there are few regulations and policies relating to climate change in Australia. Uncertainty about the timing, structure, and potential impact of proposed legislation such as a national carbon abatement scheme, is leading to planning delays across the country. To assist with these policy uncertainties, organizations can embed themselves in multilevel governance frameworks that inform, structure, and facilitate strategic development, planning, and action. As part of these networks, organizational representatives also engage in formal and informal forums, a type of interorganizational relationship, which can include industry task forces, policy development committees, interagency groups, and specific climate change committees. Forums constitute an additional level of governance that influences decision making. The patterns of relationships within these multilevel governance frameworks are examined in this paper, with a focus on the forum level of organizational cooperation. Specifically, we investigate the type of forums operating and their role in supporting organizational responses to climate change. A series of interviews and focus groups were conducted in two study areas, the Swan Canning region of Western Australia and the Hunter / Central Coast region of New South Wales. The results indicate that organizations participate in a diverse range of forums. Further, forums appear to play a key role in the everyday business of organizations by enhancing their ability to plan and address a range of issues, including those associated with climate change. In addition the research highlights some of the barriers and drivers for the development and implementation of climate adaptation practices that emerge from forum discussions. For example, a lack of government guidance in interpreting climate change policy was described as a barrier yet access to the knowledge and expertise of participants was highlighted as a potential driver. The paper

  7. Human Health and Climate Change: Leverage Points for Adaptation in Urban Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monica Zarafu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The design of adaptation strategies that promote urban health and well-being in the face of climate change requires an understanding of the feedback interactions that take place between the dynamical state of a city, the health of its people, and the state of the planet. Complexity, contingency and uncertainty combine to impede the growth of such systemic understandings. In this paper we suggest that the collaborative development of conceptual models can help a group to identify potential leverage points for effective adaptation. We describe a three-step procedure that leads from the development of a high-level system template, through the selection of a problem space that contains one or more of the group’s adaptive challenges, to a specific conceptual model of a sub-system of importance to the group. This procedure is illustrated by a case study of urban dwellers’ maladaptive dependence on private motor vehicles. We conclude that a system dynamics approach, revolving around the collaborative construction of a set of conceptual models, can help communities to improve their adaptive capacity, and so better meet the challenge of maintaining, and even improving, urban health in the face of climate change.

  8. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate variability and change in smallholder farming systems in Zimbabwe

    OpenAIRE

    Rurinda, J.

    2014-01-01

        Keywords: Climate change; Increased climate variability; Vulnerability; Smallholder farmers; Adaptation   Climate change and increased climate variability are currently seen as the major constraints to the already stressed smallholder farming livelihood system in southern Africa. The main objectives of this study were first to understand the nature and sources of vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change, and second to use this knowledge to eva...

  9. Climate change and forests: Impacts and adaption. A regional assessment for the Western Ghats, India

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ravindranath, N.H.; Sukumar, R. [Indian Inst. of Science, Bangalore (India). Centre for Ecological Sciences; Deshingkar, P. [Stockholm Environment Inst. (Sweden)

    1997-12-31

    Potential climate change over the next 50 to 100 years could have major impacts on tropical forests. Forests, particularly in the tropics, are subjected to anthropogenic pressures leading to degradation and loss of forest ecosystems. Given the significant dependence of local people and economies on forests in tropical and temperate countries, there is a need to assess the possible impacts of climate change and to develop adaption measures. The diversity of forest types in the Western Ghats ranges from wet evergreen and deciduous forest to dry thorn and montane forests with a wide range of annual rainfall regimes (from less than 65 cm to over 300 cm). The study was conducted in two regions of the Western Ghats; the Uttara Kannada district and the Nilgiris. Climate change projections for 2020 and 2050 were used in assessing the possible impacts on forests. In general, the `most likely` projections of climate change were an increase in mean temperature in the range of 0.3-1.0 deg C and an increase in precipitation of 3-8% over the study regions by the year 2050. The `worst case` scenario was an increase in temperature of 1 deg C and a decrease in precipitation by 8% by 2050. To assess the vegetational responses to climate change, a simple model based on present-day correlations between climatic (mean annual temperature and precipitation) and vegetation types for these regions was developed. Likely changes in the areas under different forest types were assessed for `moderate climate` sensitivity and central scaling factor (referred to as the `most likely scenario`) for the years 2020 and 2050, and `high climate` sensitivity and a lower scaling factor (the `worst case scenario`) for 2050 90 refs, 15 figs, 15 tabs

  10. Farmers Perception and Adaptation to Climate Change: An Estimation of Willingness to Pay

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. de-Graft Acquah

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses farmers’ perception and adaptation to climate change to enhance policy towards tackling the challenges climate change poses to the farmers in Ghana. With regards to farmers’ perception and methods of adaptation, majority of the farmers perceived increase in temperature and decrease in rainfall pattern. Farmers’ level of adaptation was found to be relatively high with majority of the farmers using changing planting dates, different crop varieties, soil conservation and water harvesting as the major adaptation measures to climate change impacts. However, access to water, high cost of adaptation, lack of information, lack of knowledge on adaptation, insecure property rights, insufficient access to inputs and lack of credits were identified as the major barriers to adaptation. The probit regression estimation results indicated that the probability of willingness to pay for climate change mitigation policies increases with age, years of education and ownership of farm land

  11. Expert opinion on extinction risk and climate change adaptation for biodiversity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Debra Javeline

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Despite projections of biodiversity loss and proposed adaptations to climate change, few data exist on the feasibility and effectiveness of adaptation strategies in minimizing biodiversity loss. Given the urgent need for action, scientific experts can fill critical information gaps by providing rapid and discerning risk assessment. A survey of 2,329 biodiversity experts projects, on average, that 9.5% of species will become extinct due to climate change within the next 100 years. This average projection is low relative to previously published values but substantial in absolute terms, because it amounts to a loss of hundreds of thousands of species over the next century. The average projection increases to 21% when experts are asked to estimate the percentage of species that will become extinct within the next 100 years due to climate change in combination with other causes. More than three-quarters of respondents reported being uncertain about their extinction estimates. A majority of experts preferred protected areas or corridors to reduce extinction risk but identified ex situ conservation and no intervention as the most feasible strategies. Experts also suggest that managed relocation of species, a particular adaptation strategy, is justifiable and effective in some situations but not others. Justifiable circumstances include the prevention of species extinction and overcoming human-made barriers to dispersal, and while experts are divided on the potential effectiveness of managed relocation for most taxonomic groups, higher percentages predict it effective for woody plants, terrestrial insects, and mammals. Most experts are open to the potential benefits of managed relocation but are concerned about unintended harmful consequences, particularly putting non-target species at risk of extinction. On balance, published biodiversity scientists feel that managed relocation, despite controversy about it, can be part of the conservation

  12. Water management to cope with and adapt to climate variability and change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdy, A.; Trisorio-Liuzzi, G.

    2009-04-01

    In many parts of the world, variability in climatic conditions is already resulting in major impacts. These impacts are wide ranging and the link to water management problems is obvious and profound. The know-how and the available information undoubtedly indicate that climate change will lead to an intensification of the global hydrological cycle and can have major impacts on regional water resources, affecting both ground and surface water supply for sectorial water uses and, in particular, the irrigation field imposing notable negative effects on food security and poverty alleviation programs in most arid and semi-arid developing countries. At the United Nations Millennium Summit, in September 2000, world leaders adopted the Millennium Development Declaration. From this declaration, the IWRM was recognised as the key concept the water sector should be using for water related development and measures and, hence, for achieving the water related MDG's. However, the potential impacts of climate change and increasing climate variability are not sufficiently addressed in the IWRM plans. Indeed, only a very limited IWRM national plans have been prepared, coping with climate variability and changes. This is mainly due to the lack of operational instruments to deal with climate change and climate variability issues. This is particularly true in developing countries where the financial, human and ecological impacts are potentially greatest and where water resources may be already highly stressed, but the capacity to cope and adapt is weakest. Climate change has now brought realities including mainly rising temperatures and increasing frequency of floods and droughts that present new challenges to be addressed by the IWRM practice. There are already several regional and international initiatives underway that focus on various aspects of water resources management those to be linked with climate changes and vulnerability issues. This is the way where the water resources

  13. Aquifer Storage and Recovery as a Viable Climate Change Adaptation Technique: Sustainable Development under the Current Regulatory Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    A holistic investigation of aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) technique and application in the U.S. is being conducted as a part of the USEPA Water Resources Adaptation Program (WRAP). The research focus is to evaluate the potential of ASR application as a practical climate chan...

  14. Smallholder agriculture in India and adaptation to current and future climate variability and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, K. K.; Jayaraman, T.

    2014-12-01

    Modeling studies have indicated that global warming, in many regions, will increase the exposure of major crops to rainfall and temperature stress, leading to lower crop yields. Climate variability alone has a potential to decrease yield to an extent comparable to or greater than yield reductions expected due to rising temperature. For India, where agriculture is important, both in terms of food security as well as a source of livelihoods to a majority of its population, climate variability and climate change are subjects of serious concern. There is however a need to distinguish the impact of current climate variability and climate change on Indian agriculture, especially in relation to their socioeconomic impact. This differentiation is difficult to determine due to the secular trend of increasing production and yield of the past several decades. The current research in this aspect is in an initial stage and requires a multi-disciplinary effort. In this study, we assess the potential differential impacts of environmental stress and shock across different socioeconomic strata of the rural population, using village level survey data. The survey data from eight selected villages, based on the Project on Agrarian Relations in India conducted by the Foundation for Agrarian Studies, indicated that income from crop production of the top 20 households (based on the extent of operational land holding, employment of hired labour and asset holdings) is a multiple of the mean income of the village. In sharp contrast, the income of the bottom 20 households is a fraction of the mean and sometimes negative, indicating a net loss from crop production. The considerable differentials in output and incomes suggest that small and marginal farmers are far more susceptible to climate variability and climate change than the other sections. Climate change is effectively an immediate threat to small and marginal farmers, which is driven essentially by socioeconomic conditions. The impact

  15. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogle, Stephen M; Olander, Lydia; Wollenberg, Lini; Rosenstock, Todd; Tubiello, Francesco; Paustian, Keith; Buendia, Leandro; Nihart, Alison; Smith, Pete

    2014-01-01

    Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries.

  16. Adaptive potentiation in rod photoreceptors after light exposure

    OpenAIRE

    McKeown, Alex S; Kraft, Timothy W.

    2014-01-01

    Photoreceptors adapt to changes in illumination by altering transduction kinetics and sensitivity, thereby extending their working range. We describe a previously unknown form of rod photoreceptor adaptation in wild-type (WT) mice that manifests as a potentiation of the light response after periods of conditioning light exposure. We characterize the stimulus conditions that evoke this graded hypersensitivity and examine the molecular mechanisms of adaptation underlying the phenomenon. After e...

  17. Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

    2013-01-15

    The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to

  18. Vulnerability and adaptation to global climate change: The Estonian national report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kont, A.; Punning, J.M. [Inst. of Ecology, Tallinn (Estonia); Ainsaar, M. [Univ. of Tartu (Estonia)] [and others

    1996-04-01

    Because of its geography, wide coastal areas, water resources, forests, and wetlands, the environment of Estonia is sensitive to climate change and sea level rise. Therefore, the vulnerability and adaptation assessment focused on these sectors GCM-based and incremental climate change scenarios are used for V and A assessment in Estonia. The results of five GCMs provided by NCAR are available, and four of them (GISS, CCCM, GFDL30, GFDL transient) are chosen for the assessment in Estonia. The CERES-Barley model is used to assess crop productivity in four long-term (1966--1987) barley field trials situated on different types of soils in different parts of Estonia. The SPUR-2 model which was expected to be used to assess herbage sensitivity to climate change doesn`t fit Estonia. To estimate the responses of forests to proposed climate change scenarios, five study sites with relatively species rich forest stands and with different types of climate (continental and moderately maritime) are selected and the simple version of the Forest Gap Model is used. The Holdridge Life Zones Classification Models are also used to determine the potential evapotranspiration ratio for different tree species and the multiplier for temperature as a function of the forest growth. The WatBal model is used in water resources vulnerability assessment for three rivers with different hydrological regimes and landscape conditions.

  19. Explaining progress in climate adaptation planning across 156 U.S. municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, L.; Chu, E.; Debats, J.

    2015-01-01

    Problem, research strategy, and findings: Cities are increasingly experiencing the effects of climate change and taking steps to adapt to current and future natural hazard risks. Research on these efforts has identified numerous barriers to climate adaptation planning, but has not yet systematically

  20. International experiences on the formulation and implementation of transboundary climate change adaptation strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Timmerman, J.G.; Ly, T.; Nguyen Huong Thuy, P.

    2014-01-01

    The Mekong River Commission’s (MRC) Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) aims at formulating the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy for the Lower Mekong Basin. An important first step in developing this strategy is to review international experiences of existing strategies, to learn from

  1. Organizational values and the implications for mainstreaming climate adaptation in Dutch municipalities : Using Q methodology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uittenbroek, Caroline J.; Janssen-Jansen, Leonie B.; Spit, Tejo J M; Runhaar, Hens A C

    2014-01-01

    Mainstreaming climate adaptation requires the inclusion of climate adaptation in the policies of various policy domains such as water management and spatial planning. This paper investigates the organizational values present in several municipal policy departments in order to explore their willingne

  2. The political economy of urban climate adaptation and development planning in Surat, India

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E. Chu

    2015-01-01

    This paper argues for a political economic approach to understanding climate change adaptation and development planning in an urban context. Based on field research conducted in Surat, India, across a period of two years, I illustrate how climate adaptation is rooted in preexisting and contextually

  3. Adapting California Water Management to Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanak, E.; Lund, J. R.

    2010-12-01

    California faces the prospect of significant water management challenges from climate change. The most certain changes are accelerated sea level rise and increased temperatures, which will reduce the Sierra Nevada snowpack and shift more runoff to winter months. These changes will likely cause major problems for flood control, for water supply reservoir operations, and for the maintenance of the present system of water exports through the fragile levee system of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Rising water temperatures also are likely to compromise habitat for some native aquatic species and pose challenges for reservoir operations, which must release cool water to support fish downstream. Although there is as yet little scientific consensus on the effects of climate change on overall precipitation levels, many expect precipitation variability to increase, with more extreme drought and flood events posing additional challenges to water managers. Fortunately, California also possesses numerous assets - including adaptation tools and institutional capabilities - which can limit vulnerability of the state’s residents to changing conditions. Water supply managers have already begun using underground storage, water transfers, conservation, recycling, and desalination to expand their capacity to meet changing demands, and these same tools present cost-effective options for responding to a wide range of climate change scenarios. Many staples of flood management - including reservoir operations, levees, bypasses, insurance, and land-use regulation - are appropriate for the challenges posed by increasing flood flows. Yet actions are also needed to improve response capacity in some areas. For water supply, a central issue is the management of the Delta, where new conveyance and habitat investments and regulations are needed to sustain water supply reliability and ecosystem conditions. For flood management, studies to anticipate required changes have only begun, and

  4. Adaptation potential of naturally ventilated barns to high temperature extremes: The OptiBarn project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menz, Christoph

    2016-04-01

    Climate change interferes with various aspects of the socio-economic system. One important aspect is its influence on animal husbandry, especially dairy faming. Dairy cows are usually kept in naturally ventilated barns (NVBs) which are particular vulnerable to extreme events due to their low adaptation capabilities. An effective adaptation to high outdoor temperatures for example, is only possible under certain wind and humidity conditions. High temperature extremes are expected to increase in number and strength under climate change. To assess the impact of this change on NVBs and dairy cows also the changes in wind and humidity needs to be considered. Hence we need to consider the multivariate structure of future temperature extremes. The OptiBarn project aims to develop sustainable adaptation strategies for dairy housings under climate change for Europe, by considering the multivariate structure of high temperature extremes. In a first step we identify various multivariate high temperature extremes for three core regions in Europe. With respect to dairy cows in NVBs we will focus on the wind and humidity field during high temperature events. In a second step we will use the CORDEX-EUR-11 ensemble to evaluate the capability of the RCMs to model such events and assess their future change potential. By transferring the outdoor conditions to indoor climate and animal wellbeing the results of this assessment can be used to develop technical, architectural and animal specific adaptation strategies for high temperature extremes.

  5. Investment climate in Vietnam: potentials and limitations

    OpenAIRE

    Nguyen Thi Hong Bach Lien; Shatokhina, Anastasia Olegovna

    2016-01-01

    Due to economic renovation in 1986, Vietnam has gained a number of convincing social-economic achievements. One of the factors determining the success of Vietnam's economy is the support of foreign direct investment. Thus, the study and analysis of the determinants, affecting the ability to attract foreign investment have become more practically oriented and necessary. The main purpose of the article is to clarify the definition of investment climate and its characteristics in Vietnam. The ar...

  6. Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.;

    2011-01-01

    Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes a...

  7. Present limits to heat-adaptability in corals and population-level responses to climate extremes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernhard M Riegl

    Full Text Available Climate change scenarios suggest an increase in tropical ocean temperature by 1-3°C by 2099, potentially killing many coral reefs. But Arabian/Persian Gulf corals already exist in this future thermal environment predicted for most tropical reefs and survived severe bleaching in 2010, one of the hottest years on record. Exposure to 33-35°C was on average twice as long as in non-bleaching years. Gulf corals bleached after exposure to temperatures above 34°C for a total of 8 weeks of which 3 weeks were above 35°C. This is more heat than any other corals can survive, providing an insight into the present limits of holobiont adaptation. We show that average temperatures as well as heat-waves in the Gulf have been increasing, that coral population levels will fluctuate strongly, and reef-building capability will be compromised. This, in combination with ocean acidification and significant local threats posed by rampant coastal development puts even these most heat-adapted corals at risk. WWF considers the Gulf ecoregion as "critically endangered". We argue here that Gulf corals should be considered for assisted migration to the tropical Indo-Pacific. This would have the double benefit of avoiding local extinction of the world's most heat-adapted holobionts while at the same time introducing their genetic information to populations naïve to such extremes, potentially assisting their survival. Thus, the heat-adaptation acquired by Gulf corals over 6 k, could benefit tropical Indo-Pacific corals who have <100 y until they will experience a similarly harsh climate. Population models suggest that the heat-adapted corals could become dominant on tropical reefs within ∼20 years.

  8. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2016-11-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  9. 2000 years of cultural adaptation to climate change in the Southwestern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blinman, Eric

    2008-11-01

    Modern concerns with climate change often overlook the extensive history of both climate change and human adaptation over the millennia. While questions of human-climate system causation are important, especially to the extent that our current behavior is driving environmental change, human societies have experienced multiple climate changes in the past, independent of causation. The histories of cultural adaptation to those changes can help us understand the dynamic interaction between climate and society, expanding the possibilities for "proactive adaptation" that may be available to us today. The underlying principles of cultural adaptation are generally independent of the source of the climate change, and the lessons of the past can suggest social and economic paths that can lead toward sustainability and away from collapse.

  10. Overview of Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation in China’s Agriculture

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Jin-xia; HUANG Ji-kun; YANG Jun

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to document the likely impacts of climate change on China’s agriculture and the current adaptation efforts made by government and farmers. The review of literature shows that climate change will have a signiifcant impact on agriculture, primarily through its effect on crop yields. The extent of predicted impacts highly depends on the crop, the CO2 fertilization effect assumption and adaptation abilities. Market response to the production shocks resulting from climate change will lessen the impacts on agricultural production predicted by natural scientists. On adaptation, the government’s major efforts have been in the developing new technologies, reforming extension system and enhancing institutional capacity. Farmers do adapt to climate change, but their adaptation measures cannot fully offset the negative impacts of climate change. The paper concludes and makes implications for future studies.

  11. Good Practice in Designing and Implementing National Monitoring Systems for Adaptation to Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Naswa, Prakriti; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte; Bouroncle, Claudia;

    In this report, we identify, analyse and compare international good practices in the design and implementation of national monitoring and evaluating indicator systems for climate change adaptation. This first chapter provides an introduction to the context and key terminology in the domain...... of climate change adaptation and indicators for M&E of adaptation. The second chapter discusses the existing approaches to M&E, while Chapter 3 provides a general overview of approaches to M&E Frameworks for Climate Change Adaptation. Chapters 4 and 5 outline and discuss the application and relevance...

  12. Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation...... to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.......Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible...

  13. Adaptation of public space to climatic change. Municipalities starting with climate adaptation; Aanpassen openbare ruimte aan klimaatverandering. Gemeenten aan de slag met klimaatadaptatie

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-02-15

    Climate change will impact the urban environment. This publication helps communities in determining the risks and opportunities in adapting public space to climate change. A roadmap shows what can be decided and how a municipality can start to work on climate adaptation. Eleven inspiring examples are included. [Dutch] Klimaatverandering heeft gevolgen voor de stedelijke leefomgeving. Deze publicatie helpt gemeenten bij het vaststellen van de risico's en de kansen bij het aanpassen van de openbare ruimte aan klimaatverandering. Een stappenplan maakt duidelijk wat kan worden besloten en hoe een gemeente aan de slag kan gaan met klimaatadaptatie. Ter inspiratie zijn elf voorbeelden opgenomen.

  14. "I know, therefore I adapt?" Complexities of individual adaptation to climate-induced forest dieback in Alaska

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren E. Oakes

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Individual actions to avoid, benefit from, or cope with climate change impacts partly shape adaptation; much research on adaptation has focused at the systems level, overlooking drivers of individual responses. Theoretical frameworks and empirical studies of environmental behavior identify a complex web of cognitive, affective, and evaluative factors that motivate stewardship. We explore the relationship between knowledge of, and adaptation to, widespread, climate-induced tree mortality to understand the cognitive (i.e., knowledge and learning, affective (i.e., attitudes and place attachment, and evaluative (i.e., use values factors that influence how individuals respond to climate-change impacts. From 43 semistructured interviews with forest managers and users in a temperate forest, we identified distinct responses to local, climate-induced environmental changes that we then categorized as either behavioral or psychological adaptations. Interviewees developed a depth of knowledge about the dieback through a combination of direct, place-based experiences and indirect, mediated learning through social interactions. Knowing that the dieback was associated with climate change led to different adaptive responses among the interviewees, although knowledge alone did not explain this variation. Forest users reported psychological adaptations to process negative attitudes; these adaptations were spurred by knowledge of the causes, losses of intangible values, and impacts to a species to which they held attachment. Behavioral adaptations exclusive to a high level of knowledge included actions such as using the forests to educate others or changing transportation behaviors to reduce personal energy consumption. Managers integrated awareness of the dieback and its dynamics across spatial scales into current management objectives. Our findings suggest that adaptive management may occur from the bottom up, as individual managers implement new practices in

  15. Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phipps, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

  16. Impacts of climate change on Brazilian agriculture: an analysis of irrigation as an adaptation strategy

    OpenAIRE

    Cunha, Denis Antonio da; Coelho, Alexandre Braganca; Feres, Jose; Braga, Marcelo Jose

    2012-01-01

    This paper aims to analyze the effects of climate change on Brazilian agriculture considering irrigation adoption as an adaptation strategy. Investigation on how climatic variability influences irrigation adoption was performed as well as whether this adaptation measure actually reduces producers’ vulnerability to climate change. We used matching methods to analyze the choice of irrigation in the first stage and the land values for two types of farmer (irrigators or dryland) in the second sta...

  17. Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

    2013-09-01

    Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.

  18. Operationalizing analysis of micro-level climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jiao, Xi; Moinuddin, Hasan

    2016-01-01

    This paper explores vulnerability and adaptive capacity of rural communities in Southern Laos, where households are highly dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources and vulnerable to seasonal weather fluctuations. The speed and magnitude of climate-induced changes may seriously challenge...... their ability to adapt. Participatory group discussions and 271 household surveys in three villages highlight the current level of vulnerability and adaptive capacity towards climatic variability and risks. This paper visualizes three dimensions of the vulnerability framework at two levels using the Community...... Climate Vulnerability Index and household climate vulnerability cube. Results show that not only poor households are most at risk from climate change challenges, but also those better-off households highly dependent on specialized agricultural production are locally exposed to climate change risks...

  19. Climate change adaptation and the social factor; Klimatilpasning og den sociale faktor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kjerulf Petersen, L.; Jensen, Anne; Svalgaard Nielsen, S.

    2009-06-15

    This report addresses the social aspects of climate change adaptation. How do people perceive and relate to climate change adaptation; what risks are associated with climate change, and how are these risks balanced with other risks and concerns of everyday life and long-range choices? The report is based on an explorative study about social aspects of climate change adaptation in Denmark. The issue was investigated through literature studies and interviews with respondents with residence in different parts of Denmark. The study was based on a distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation and further on an assumption in adaptation policies that some adaptation measures - for economic or practical reasons - will have to be carried out by private citizens and households. This study showed, however, that the distinction between climate change mitigation and adaptation is of little significance for lay people. Moreover, the prospect of climate change does provoke reflections on social values and the need for saving energy, but when it comes to protecting ones own life and property against future damaging effects of climate change the threat seems distant and other forms of home improvement seem more relevant. Nevertheless, some adaptation measures are carried out by single households and local communities. When households experience weather related damages - of a kind that are expected to occur more frequently and with greater force as a result of climate changes - they take action to repair damages and prevent similar damages in the future; at least the kind of action that is easily carried out such as moving valuable goods from the basement or felling a tree. Such measures are, however, not necessarily understood in a context of climate change adaptation; they are rather specific reactions to acute problems. To the extent that a more thorough precautionary adaptation effort is required, also by private citizens, it will have to be performed in

  20. Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

    2016-01-01

    Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute...... to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics......, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa...

  1. Agricultural Intensification as a Mechanism of Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kyle, P.; Calvin, K. V.; le Page, Y.; Patel, P.; West, T. O.; Wise, M. A.

    2015-12-01

    The research, policy, and NGO communities have devoted significant attention to the potential for agricultural intensification, or closure of "yield gaps," to alleviate future global hunger, poverty, climate change impacts, and other threats. However, because the research to this point has focused on biophysically attainable yields—assuming optimal choices under ideal conditions—the presently available work has not yet addressed the likely responses of the agricultural sector to real-world conditions in the future. This study investigates endogenous agricultural intensification in response to global climate change impacts—that is, intensification independent of policies or other exogenous interventions to promote yield gap closure. The framework for the analysis is a set of scenarios to 2100 in the GCAM global integrated assessment model, enhanced to include endogenous irrigation, fertilizer application, and yields, in each of 283 land use regions, with maximum yields based on the 95th percentile of attainable yields in a recent global assessment. We assess three levels of agricultural climate impacts, using recent global gridded crop model datasets: none, low (LPJmL), and high (Pegasus). Applying formulations for decomposition of climate change impacts response developed in prior AgMIP work, we find that at the global level, availability of high-yielding technologies mitigates price shocks and shifts the agricultural sector's climate response modestly towards intensification, away from cropland expansion and reduced production. At the regional level, the behavior is more complex; nevertheless, availability of high-yielding production technologies enhances the inter-regional shifts in agricultural production that are induced by climate change, complemented by commensurate changes in trade patterns. The results highlight the importance of policies to facilitate yield gap closure and inter-regional trade as mechanisms for adapting to climate change

  2. Countermeasures of adaptation to climate change: establishment and application for implementation matrix

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jiang Dongmei; Liu Bin

    2009-01-01

    In the conceptual framework of adaptation policy assessment to climate change,adaptation measures can be categorized as two groupsL:facilitation and implementation.Facilitation measures refers to activities that enhance adaptive capacity,while implementation refers to activities that actually avoid adverse climate impacts on a system by reducing its exposure or sensitivity to climatic hazards,or by moderating relevant non-climatic factors.This paper aims to establish a matrix of implementation measures of adaptation to climate change,through four different ways how adaptation can influence the relevant elements of climate change:reducing the exposure,reducing the sensitivity,alleviating the adverse impacts and reducing the negative non-climatic factors,and then further discuss the particular implementation measures of adaptation to climate change,through application studies on the selected sub-systems,intend to organize the disordered implementation measures in existent,and put forward some new mea sures under the guidance of this matrix,which could enrich and promote the system and content of implementation measures of adaptation.

  3. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies in Northwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Hong-Yan; LIU Cai-Hong; LI Yan-Chun; FANG Jian-Gang; LI Lin; LI Hong-Mei; ZHENG Guang-Fen; DENG Zhen-Yong; DONG An-Xiang; GUO Jun-Qin; ZHANG Cun-Jie; SUN Lan-Dong; ZHANG Xu-Dong; LIN Jing-Jing; WANG You-Heng; FANG Feng; MA Peng-Li

    2014-01-01

    Climate change resulted in changes in crop growth duration and planting structure, northward movement of planting region, and more severe plant diseases and insect pests in Northwest China. It caused earlier seeding for spring crop, later seeding for autumn crop, accelerated crop growth, and reduced mortality for winter crop. To adapt to climate change, measures such as optimization of agricultural arrangement, adjustment of planting structure, expansion of thermophilic crops, and development of water-saving agriculture have been taken. Damaging consequences of imbalance between grassland and livestock were enhanced. The deterioration trend of grassland was intensified; both grass quantity and quality declined. With overgrazing, proportions of inferior grass, weeds and poisonous weeds increased in plateau pastoral areas. Returning farmland to grazing, returning grazing to grassland, fence enclosure and artificial grassland construction have been implemented to restore the grassland vegetation, to increase the grassland coverage, to reasonably control the livestock carrying capacity, to prevent overgrazing, to keep balance between grassland and livestock, and to develop the ecological animal husbandry. In Northwest China, because the amount of regional water resources had an overall decreasing trend, there was a continuous expansion in the regional land desertification, and soil erosion was very serious. A series of measures, such as development of artificial precipitation (snow), water resources control, regional water diversion, water storage project and so on, were used effectively to respond to water deficit. It had played a certain role in controlling soil erosion by natural forest protection and returning farmland to forest and grassland. In the early 21st century, noticeable achievements had been made in prevention and control of desertification in Northwest China. The regional ecological environment has been improved obviously, and the desertification trend

  4. Evaluation Tool of Climate Potential for Ventilative Cooling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belleri, Annamaria; Psomas, Theofanis Ch.; Heiselberg, Per Kvols

    2015-01-01

    making towards cost-effective passive cooling solution e.g. ventilative cooling. As buildings with different use patterns, envelope characteristics and internal loads level do not follow equally the external climate condition, the climate analysis cannot abstract from building characteristics and use......The new initiatives and regulations towards nearly zero energy buildings forces designers to exploit the cooling potential of the climate to reduce the overheating occurrence and to improve thermal comfort indoors. Climate analysis is particularly useful at early design stages to support decision....... Within IEA Annex 62 project, national experts are working on the development of a climate evaluation tool, which aims at assessing the potential of ventilative cooling by taking into account also building envelope thermal properties, internal gains and ventilation needs. The analysis is based on a single...

  5. An adaptive interpolation scheme for molecular potential energy surfaces

    CERN Document Server

    Kowalewski, Markus; Heryudono, Alfa

    2016-01-01

    The calculation of potential energy surfaces for quantum dynamics can be a time consuming task -- especially when a high level of theory for the electronic structure calculation is required. We propose an adaptive interpolation algorithm based on polyharmonic splines combined with a partition of unity approach. The adaptive node refinement allows to greatly reduce the number of sample points by employing a local error estimate. The algorithm and its scaling behavior is evaluated for a model function in 2, 3 and 4 dimensions. The developed algorithm allows for a more rapid and reliable interpolation of a potential energy surface within a given accuracy compared to the non-adaptive version.

  6. An adaptive interpolation scheme for molecular potential energy surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalewski, Markus; Larsson, Elisabeth; Heryudono, Alfa

    2016-08-01

    The calculation of potential energy surfaces for quantum dynamics can be a time consuming task—especially when a high level of theory for the electronic structure calculation is required. We propose an adaptive interpolation algorithm based on polyharmonic splines combined with a partition of unity approach. The adaptive node refinement allows to greatly reduce the number of sample points by employing a local error estimate. The algorithm and its scaling behavior are evaluated for a model function in 2, 3, and 4 dimensions. The developed algorithm allows for a more rapid and reliable interpolation of a potential energy surface within a given accuracy compared to the non-adaptive version.

  7. Agriculture Insurance: Adaptation to Vulnerability of Climate Change in Bali, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.; Hongo, C.; Mirah Adi, A. A. A.; Tamura, E.

    2014-12-01

    Bali province of Indonesia is worldwide known for its tourist destination and it contributes more than 60 per cent to the regional domestic product. Meanwhile, agricultural sector including rice production still plays an important role in the Bali economy because of its 30 per cent contribution. Rice production in Bali is not just susceptible to loss caused by flood, drought and pest and disease attack but also from the climate change. The impact of climate change on food production in Indonesia is expected to decline in 2050, ranging from 38 per cent to more than ten-folds of the current production (Syaukat, 2011). Accordingly, adaptation to climate changes is required to minimize the risk along with the plans and strategies for food security and sustainable development. The government of Indonesia (GoI) has launched several pilot projects including agriculture insurance program to minimize the risk in production failure particularly rice farming, unfortunately Bali was excluded from the projects. Implementation of agriculture insurance in Indonesia has the legal basis now after the announcement of the Farmer Protection and Empowerment Act (Law No. 19/2013). Agriculture insurance is seen better in mitigating farmer's risk than that of the other program in rice production. The GoI plans to implement the insurance scheme in the beginning of 2015. This scheme is something "new" to farmers in Bali and Indonesia. Considering the importance of crop insurance to agriculture, this study attempts to explore the potential of such insurance to reveal a clear picture of opportunities and challenges in agriculture insurance implementation in Bali. The study empirically presents awareness and perception of farmers towards the insurance and adaptation to vulnerability of climate change. The study concludes with various suggestions for increasing the awareness of farmers for ensuring better penetration of agriculture insurance in Bali. Key words: agriculture insurance, farmer

  8. Database support for adaptation to climate change: An assessment of web-based portals across scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Hans; Hilden, Mikael; Russel, Duncan; Dessai, Suraje

    2016-10-01

    The widely recognized increase in greenhouse gas emissions is necessitating adaptation to a changing climate, and policies are being developed and implemented worldwide, across sectors, and between government scales globally. The aim of this article is to reflect on one of the major challenges: facilitating and sharing information on the next adaptation practices. Web portals (i.e., web sites) for disseminating information are important tools in meeting this challenge, and therefore, we assessed the characteristics of select major portals across multiple scales. We found that there is a rather limited number of case studies available in the portals-between 900 and 1000 in total-with 95 that include cost information and 195 that include the participation of stakeholders globally. Portals are rarely cited by researchers, suggesting a suboptimal connection between the practical, policy-related, and scientific development of adaptation. The government portals often lack links on search results between US and European Union (EU) web sites, for example. With significant investments and policy development emerging in both the United States and the European Union, there is great potential to share information via portals. Moreover, there is the possibility of better connecting the practical adaptation experience from bottom-up projects to the science of adaptation. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:627-631. © 2016 SETAC.

  9. Is `Resilience' Maladaptive? Towards an Accurate Lexicon for Climate Change Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Hoffman, Cat Hawkins

    2016-04-01

    Climate change adaptation is a rapidly evolving field in conservation biology and includes a range of strategies from resisting to actively directing change on the landscape. The term `climate change resilience,' frequently used to characterize adaptation strategies, deserves closer scrutiny because it is ambiguous, often misunderstood, and difficult to apply consistently across disciplines and spatial and temporal scales to support conservation efforts. Current definitions of resilience encompass all aspects of adaptation from resisting and absorbing change to reorganizing and transforming in response to climate change. However, many stakeholders are unfamiliar with this spectrum of definitions and assume the more common meaning of returning to a previous state after a disturbance. Climate change, however, is unrelenting and intensifying, characterized by both directional shifts in baseline conditions and increasing variability in extreme events. This ongoing change means that scientific understanding and management responses must develop concurrently, iteratively, and collaboratively, in a science-management partnership. Divergent concepts of climate change resilience impede cross-jurisdictional adaptation efforts and complicate use of adaptive management frameworks. Climate change adaptation practitioners require clear terminology to articulate management strategies and the inherent tradeoffs involved in adaptation. Language that distinguishes among strategies that seek to resist change, accommodate change, and direct change (i.e., persistence, autonomous change, and directed change) is prerequisite to clear communication about climate change adaptation goals and management intentions in conservation areas.

  10. Is 'Resilience' Maladaptive? Towards an Accurate Lexicon for Climate Change Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Schuurman, Gregor W; Hoffman, Cat Hawkins

    2016-04-01

    Climate change adaptation is a rapidly evolving field in conservation biology and includes a range of strategies from resisting to actively directing change on the landscape. The term 'climate change resilience,' frequently used to characterize adaptation strategies, deserves closer scrutiny because it is ambiguous, often misunderstood, and difficult to apply consistently across disciplines and spatial and temporal scales to support conservation efforts. Current definitions of resilience encompass all aspects of adaptation from resisting and absorbing change to reorganizing and transforming in response to climate change. However, many stakeholders are unfamiliar with this spectrum of definitions and assume the more common meaning of returning to a previous state after a disturbance. Climate change, however, is unrelenting and intensifying, characterized by both directional shifts in baseline conditions and increasing variability in extreme events. This ongoing change means that scientific understanding and management responses must develop concurrently, iteratively, and collaboratively, in a science-management partnership. Divergent concepts of climate change resilience impede cross-jurisdictional adaptation efforts and complicate use of adaptive management frameworks. Climate change adaptation practitioners require clear terminology to articulate management strategies and the inherent tradeoffs involved in adaptation. Language that distinguishes among strategies that seek to resist change, accommodate change, and direct change (i.e., persistence, autonomous change, and directed change) is prerequisite to clear communication about climate change adaptation goals and management intentions in conservation areas.

  11. Impact assessment and coastal climate change adaptation in a local transdisciplinary perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Carlo Sass; Broge, N. H.; Knudsen, Per

    , private and public institutions, and the local communities provides: understanding of the immediate and potential future challenges; appreciation of different stakeholder motives, business agendas, legislative constraints etc., and common focus on how to cost-efficiently adapt to and manage impacts...... of climate change. The platform is dynamically updated with additional data and knowledge, e.g. from climate change evidence, or, by provision of updated regional models of future sea level rise. In order to integrate natural hazards and impact development over time, models on hydrology, geology...... to map vulnerability and risk, and strategies for community engagement and capacity-building are included. The initial bias towards the natural sciences, to a large extent dictated by technical stakeholder focus and data availability, is gradually balanced as especially economics and social sciences take...

  12. Preface: Monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, J. M.; Ciavola, P.; Masselink, G.; McCall, R.; Plater, A. J.

    2016-02-01

    Storms across the globe and their associated consequences in coastal zones (flooding and erosion), combined with the long-term geomorphic evolution of our coastlines, are a threat to life and assets, both socioeconomic and environmental. In a changing climate, with a rising global sea level, potentially changing patterns in storm tracks and storminess, and rising population density and pressures on the coastal zone, the future risk of coastal storm impacts is likely to increase. Coastal managers and policy makers therefore need to make effective and timely decisions on the use of resources for the immediate and longer Research focused on "monitoring and modelling to guide coastal adaptation to extreme storm events in a changing climate" is becoming more common; its goal is to provide science-based decision support for effective adaptation to the consequences of storm impacts, both now and under future climate scenarios at the coast. The growing transfer of information between the science community and end-users is enabling leading research to have a greater impact on the socioeconomic resilience of coastal communities. This special issue covers recent research activities relating to coastal hazard mapping in response to extreme events, economic impacts of long-term change, coastal processes influencing management decisions and the development of online decision support tools.

  13. Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

    2009-05-01

    Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

  14. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Agricultural Adaptation Strategies in Rural Sahel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

    2009-05-01

    Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

  15. Forecasting the underlying potential governing climatic time series

    CERN Document Server

    Livina, V N; Mudelsee, M; Lenton, T M

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a technique of time series analysis, potential forecasting, which is based on dynamical propagation of the probability density of time series. We employ polynomial coefficients of the orthogonal approximation of the empirical probability distribution and extrapolate them in order to forecast the future probability distribution of data. The method is tested on artificial data, used for hindcasting observed climate data, and then applied to forecast Arctic sea-ice time series. The proposed methodology completes a framework for `potential analysis' of climatic tipping points which altogether serves anticipating, detecting and forecasting climate transitions and bifurcations using several independent techniques of time series analysis.

  16. Increasing the effectiveness of native forest regeneration and reforestation: towards climate-change adaptation in drylands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branquinho, Cristina; Príncipe, Adriana; Nunes, Alice; Kobel, Melanie; Soares, Cristina; Pinho, Pedro

    2016-04-01

    The recent expansion of the semiarid climate to all the region of the south of Portugal and the growing impact of climate change demands local adaptation. The growth of the native forest represents a strategy at the ecosystem level to adapt to climate change since it increases resilience and increases also de delivery of ecosystem services such as the increment of organic matter in the soil, carbon and nitrogen, biodiversity, water infiltration, etc. Moreover decreases susceptibility to desertification. For that reason, large areas have been reforested in the south of Portugal with the native species holm oak and cork oak but with a low rate of effectiveness. Our goal in this work is to show how the cost-benefit relation of the actions intended to expand the forest of the Portuguese semiarid can be lowered by taking into account the microclimatic conditions and high spatial resolution management. The potential of forest regeneration was modelled at the local and regional level in the semiarid area using information concerning the Potential Solar Radiation. This model gives us the rate of native forest regeneration after a disturbance with high spatial resolution. Based on this model the territory was classified in: i) easy regeneration areas; ii) areas with the need of assisted reforestation, using methods that increase water and soil conservation; iii) areas of difficult reforestation because of the costs. Additionally a summary of the success of reforestations was made in the historical semiarid since the 60s based on the evaluation of a series of case studies, where we quantified the ecosystem services currently delivered by the reforested ecosystems. Acknowledgement: Programa Adapt: financed by EEA Grants and Fundo Português de Carbono

  17. Adapting to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences from Cereal-Based Farming in the Central Rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

    2013-11-01

    Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions—the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers’ perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new

  18. Adapting to climate variability and change: experiences from cereal-based farming in the central rift and Kobo Valleys, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kassie, Belay Tseganeh; Hengsdijk, Huib; Rötter, Reimund; Kahiluoto, Helena; Asseng, Senthold; Van Ittersum, Martin

    2013-11-01

    Small-holder farmers in Ethiopia are facing several climate related hazards, in particular highly variable rainfall with severe droughts which can have devastating effects on their livelihoods. Projected changes in climate are expected to aggravate the existing challenges. This study examines farmer perceptions on current climate variability and long-term changes, current adaptive strategies, and potential barriers for successful further adaptation in two case study regions-the Central Rift Valley (CRV) and Kobo Valley. The study was based on a household questionnaire, interviews with key stakeholders, and focus group discussions. The result revealed that about 99 % of the respondents at the CRV and 96 % at the Kobo Valley perceived an increase in temperature and 94 % at CRV and 91 % at the Kobo Valley perceived a decrease in rainfall over the last 20-30 years. Inter-annual and intraseasonal rainfall variability also has increased according to the farmers. The observed climate data (1977-2009) also showed an increasing trend in temperature and high inter-annual and intra-seasonal rainfall variability. In contrast to farmers' perceptions of a decrease in rainfall totals, observed rainfall data showed no statistically significant decline. The interaction among various bio-physical and socio-economic factors, changes in rainfall intensity and reduced water available to crops due to increased hot spells, may have influenced the perception of farmers with respect to rainfall trends. In recent decades, farmers in both the CRV and Kobo have changed farming practices to adapt to perceived climate change and variability, for example, through crop and variety choice, adjustment of cropping calendar, and in situ moisture conservation. These relatively low-cost changes in farm practices were within the limited adaptation capacity of farmers, which may be insufficient to deal with the impacts of future climate change. Anticipated climate change is expected to impose new

  19. Testing a participatory integrated assessment (PIA approach to select climate change adaptation actions to enhance wetland sustainability: The case of Poyang Lake region in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Huang

    2015-06-01

    It should be noted that while the case study evaluated adaptation policies or options to climate change, it was not completed in terms of discussing in detail all the key components of the PIA approach. However, the case study represents the state-of-the-arts research in climate change impact assessment and adaptation option evaluation, particularly in linking with wetland ecosystem sustainability. Findings of the case study have indicated that the potential effects of climate change on wetland sustainability are quite significant. The case has also identified adaptation measures considered by stakeholders to be potentially effective for reducing vulnerability of wetland ecosystems. It is clear that wetland ecosystem sustainability goals will be unachievable without mainstreaming adaptation measures into wetland conservation and health programs under a changing climate.

  20. Climate Change Adaptation Activities at the NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL., USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Carlton; Phillips, Lynne

    2016-01-01

    In 2010, the Office of Strategic Infrastructure and Earth Sciences established the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) program to integrate climate change forecasts and knowledge into sustainable management of infrastructure and operations needed for the NASA mission. NASA operates 10 field centers valued at $32 billion dollars, occupies 191,000 acres and employs 58,000 people. CASI climate change and sea-level rise forecasts focus on the 2050 and 2080 time periods. At the 140,000 acre Kennedy Space Center (KSC) data are used to simulate impacts on infrastructure, operations, and unique natural resources. KSC launch and processing facilities represent a valued national asset located in an area with high biodiversity including 33 species of special management concern. Numerical and advanced Bayesian and Monte Carlo statistical modeling is being conducted using LiDAR digital elevation models coupled with relevant GIS layers to assess potential future conditions. Results are provided to the Environmental Management Branch, Master Planning, Construction of Facilities, Engineering Construction Innovation Committee and our regional partners to support Spaceport development, management, and adaptation planning and design. Potential impacts to natural resources include conversion of 50% of the Center to open water, elevation of the surficial aquifer, alterations of rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns, conversion of salt marsh to mangrove forest, reductions in distribution and extent of upland habitats, overwash of the barrier island dune system, increases in heat stress days, and releases of chemicals from legacy contamination sites. CASI has proven successful in bringing climate change planning to KSC including recognition of the need to increase resiliency and development of a green managed shoreline retreat approach to maintain coastal ecosystem services while maximizing life expectancy of Center launch and payload processing resources.

  1. Decision criteria of potential solar IPH adapters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perwin, E.; Levine, A.; Mikasa, G.; Noun, R. J.; Schaller, D.

    1981-12-01

    If national programs are to be effective in the research and development of viable renewable resource technologies for the industrial sector, understanding industry's decision criteria will be important. The results of a preliminary investigation of the decision criteria of potential and actual users of solar industrial process heat systems are presented. Detailed interviews were completed with decision-makers from ten manufacturing firms. Based on economic theory, it was assumed that corporate decision-makers assess the expected cost, revenue, and uncertainty of competing investment opportunities. These decision criteria are composed of factors that are financial, technical, and institutional. Clearly, the firms interviewed were more concerned with costs than any other category of decision criteria. Most of the firms also believed that there was less uncertainty with competing investments than with current solar technology. Based on this preliminary investigation, a more extensive survey of industrial firms is suggested to determine a more comprehensive list of significant decision criteria.

  2. Nature-based solutions to climate change mitigation and adaptation in urban areas: Perspectives on indicators, knowledge gaps, barriers, and opportunities for action

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Kabisch (Nadja); N. Frantzeskaki (Niki); S. Pauleit (Stephan); Naumann, S. (Sandra); Davis, M. (McKenna); M. Artmann (Martina); D. Haase (Dagmar); Knapp, S. (Sonja); Korn, H. (Horst); Stadler, J. (Jutta); Zaunberger, K. (Karin); Bonn, A. (Aletta)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractNature-based solutions promoting green and blue urban areas have significant potential to decrease the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of cities in light of climatic change. They can thereby help to mitigate climate change-induced impacts and serve as proactive adaptation option

  3. Competencies Demonstrated by Municipal Employees during Adaptation to Climate Change: A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pruneau, Diane; Kerry, Jackie; Blain, Sylvie; Evichnevetski, Evgueni; Deguire, Paul; Barbier, Pierre-Yves; Freiman, Viktor; Therrien, Jimmy; Langis, Joanne; Lang, Mathieu

    2013-01-01

    Since coastal communities are already subjected to the impacts of climate change, adaptation has become a necessity. This article presents competencies demonstrated by Canadian municipal employees during an adaptation process to sea level rise. To adapt, the participants demonstrated the following competencies: problem solving (highlighting…

  4. Water pressure: climate change and adaptation in the Niger River Basin

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Millar, Ilona

    2007-12-15

    Climate change is expected to result in severe water stress over much of the African continent. Not only will water become scarcer in already dry regions, but changing freshwater temperatures could affect natural ecosystems and water quality. The Sahel, running along the southern edge of the Sahara, could see its water supply become even more erratic, increasing the risk of extended drought and more intense monsoons. Adapting to such potentially dramatic shifts will demand major adjustments to current water management systems and practices. But there is a serious complicating factor: more than 80 rivers and lakes on the continent are shared by two or more countries. As experience in the Niger River Basin shows, this interdependence must be a priority in regional, national and local adaptation strategies that affect transboundary water sources.

  5. Application of Structured Decision Making to an Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Options for Sustainable Forest Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John L. Innes

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available A logical starting point for climate change adaptation in the forest sector is to proactively identify management practices and policies that have a higher likelihood of achieving management objectives across a wide range of potential climate futures. This should be followed by implementation of these options and monitoring their success in achieving management objectives within an adaptive management context. Here, we implement an approach to identify locally appropriate adaptation options by tapping into the experiential knowledge base of local forest practitioners while at the same time, building capacity within this community to implement the results. We engaged 30 forest practitioners who are involved with the implementation of a regional forest management plan in identifying climate change vulnerabilities and evaluating alternative adaptation options. A structured decision-making approach was used to frame the assessment. Practitioners identified 24 adaptation options that they considered important to implement in order to achieve the regional goals and objectives of sustainable forest management in light of climate change.

  6. Collaborative Education in Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation through Interactive Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozbay, G.; Sriharan, S.; Fan, C.

    2014-12-01

    As a result of several funded climate change education grants, collaboration between VSU, DSU, and MSU, was established to provide the innovative and cohesive education and research opportunities to underrepresented groups in the climate related sciences. Prior to offering climate change and adaptation related topics to the students, faculty members of the three collaborating institutions participated at a number of faculty training and preparation workshops for teaching climate change sciences (i.e. AMS Diversity Project Workshop, NCAR Faculty-Student Team on Climate Change, NASA-NICE Program). In order to enhance the teaching and student learning on various issues in the Environmental Sciences Programs, Climatology, Climate Change Sciences and Adaptation or related courses were developed at Delaware State University and its partner institutions (Virginia State University and Morgan State University). These courses were prepared to deliver information on physical basis for the earth's climate system and current climate change instruction modules by AMS and historic climate information (NOAA Climate Services, U.S. and World Weather Data, NCAR and NASA Climate Models). By using Global Seminar as a Model, faculty members worked in teams to engage students in videoconferencing on climate change through Contemporary Global Studies and climate courses including Climate Change and Adaptation Science, Sustainable Agriculture, Introduction to Environmental Sciences, Climatology, and Ecology and Adaptation courses. All climate change courses have extensive hands-on practices and research integrated into the student learning experiences. Some of these students have presented their classroom projects during Earth Day, Student Climate Change Symposium, Undergraduate Summer Symposium, and other national conferences.

  7. Engineered Gold Nanoparticles and Plant Adaptation Potential

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddiqi, Khwaja Salahuddin; Husen, Azamal

    2016-09-01

    Use of metal nanoparticles in biological system has recently been recognised although little is known about their possible effects on plant growth and development. Nanoparticles accumulation, translocation, growth response and stress modulation in plant system is not well understood. Plants exposed to gold and gold nanoparticles have been demonstrated to exhibit both positive and negative effects. Their growth and yield vary from species to species. Cytoxicity of engineered gold nanoparticles depends on the concentration, particle size and shape. They exhibit increase in vegetative growth and yield of fruit/seed at lower concentration and decrease them at higher concentration. Studies have shown that the gold nanoparticles exposure has improved free radical scavenging potential and antioxidant enzymatic activities and alter micro RNAs expression that regulate different morphological, physiological and metabolic processes in plants. These modulations lead to improved plant growth and yields. Prior to the use of gold nanoparticles, it has been suggested that its cost may be calculated to see if it is economically feasible.

  8. Multi-decadal range changes vs. thermal adaptation for north east Atlantic oceanic copepods in the face of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinder, Stephanie L; Gravenor, Mike B; Edwards, Martin; Ostle, Clare; Bodger, Owen G; Lee, Patricia L M; Walne, Antony W; Hays, Graeme C

    2014-01-01

    Populations may potentially respond to climate change in various ways including moving to new areas or alternatively staying where they are and adapting as conditions shift. Traditional laboratory and mesocosm experiments last days to weeks and thus only give a limited picture of thermal adaptation, whereas ocean warming occurring over decades allows the potential for selection of new strains better adapted to warmer conditions. Evidence for adaptation in natural systems is equivocal. We used a 50-year time series comprising of 117 056 samples in the NE Atlantic, to quantify the abundance and distribution of two particularly important and abundant members of the ocean plankton (copepods of the genus Calanus) that play a key trophic role for fisheries. Abundance of C. finmarchicus, a cold-water species, and C. helgolandicus, a warm-water species, were negatively and positively related to sea surface temperature (SST) respectively. However, the abundance vs. SST relationships for neither species changed over time in a manner consistent with thermal adaptation. Accompanying the lack of evidence for thermal adaptation there has been an unabated range contraction for C. finmarchicus and range expansion for C. helgolandicus. Our evidence suggests that thermal adaptation has not mitigated the impacts of ocean warming for dramatic range changes of these key species and points to continued dramatic climate induced changes in the biology of the oceans.

  9. Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Brian; Vargo, Jason; Liu, Peng; Habeeb, Dana; DeLucia, Anthony; Trail, Marcus; Hu, Yongtao; Russell, Armistead

    2014-01-01

    Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1) climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2) local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.

  10. Avoided heat-related mortality through climate adaptation strategies in three US cities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brian Stone

    Full Text Available Heat-related mortality in US cities is expected to more than double by the mid-to-late 21st century. Rising heat exposure in cities is projected to result from: 1 climate forcings from changing global atmospheric composition; and 2 local land surface characteristics responsible for the urban heat island effect. The extent to which heat management strategies designed to lessen the urban heat island effect could offset future heat-related mortality remains unexplored in the literature. Using coupled global and regional climate models with a human health effects model, we estimate changes in the number of heat-related deaths in 2050 resulting from modifications to vegetative cover and surface albedo across three climatically and demographically diverse US metropolitan areas: Atlanta, Georgia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona. Employing separate health impact functions for average warm season and heat wave conditions in 2050, we find combinations of vegetation and albedo enhancement to offset projected increases in heat-related mortality by 40 to 99% across the three metropolitan regions. These results demonstrate the potential for extensive land surface changes in cities to provide adaptive benefits to urban populations at risk for rising heat exposure with climate change.

  11. Neonates in Ahmedabad, India, during the 2010 heat wave: a climate change adaptation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakkad, Khyati; Barzaga, Michelle L; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Azhar, Gulrez Shah; Sheffield, Perry E

    2014-01-01

    Health effects from climate change are an international concern with urban areas at particular risk due to urban heat island effects. The burden of disease on vulnerable populations in non-climate-controlled settings has not been well studied. This study compared neonatal morbidity in a non-air-conditioned hospital during the 2010 heat wave in Ahmedabad to morbidity in the prior and subsequent years. The outcome of interest was neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions for heat. During the months of April, May, and June of 2010, 24 NICU admissions were for heat versus 8 and 4 in 2009 and 2011, respectively. Both the effect of moving the maternity ward and the effect of high temperatures were statistically significant, controlling for each other. Above 42 degrees Celsius, each daily maximum temperature increase of a degree was associated with 43% increase in heat-related admissions (95% CI 9.2-88%). Lower floor location of the maternity ward within hospital which occurred after the 2010 heat wave showed a protective effect. These findings demonstrate the importance of simple surveillance measures in motivating a hospital policy change for climate change adaptation-here relocating one ward-and the potential increasing health burden of heat in non-climate-controlled institutions on vulnerable populations.

  12. Farm level adaptation to climate change: the case of farmer's in the Ethiopian highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2013-07-01

    In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

  13. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; Zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

  14. Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability and Factors Influencing Adaptation: Evidence from Anhui and Jiangsu, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibue, Grace Wanjiru; Liu, Xiaoyu; Zheng, Jufeng; zhang, Xuhui; Pan, Genxing; Li, Lianqing; Han, Xiaojun

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of climate variability and climate change are on the rise in China posing great threat to agriculture and rural livelihoods. Consequently, China is undertaking research to find solutions of confronting climate change and variability. However, most studies of climate change and variability in China largely fail to address farmers' perceptions of climate variability and adaptation. Yet, without an understanding of farmers' perceptions, strategies are unlikely to be effective. We conducted questionnaire surveys of farmers in two farming regions, Yifeng, Jiangsu and Qinxi, Anhui achieving 280 and 293 responses, respectively. Additionally, we used climatological data to corroborate the farmers' perceptions of climate variability. We found that farmers' were aware of climate variability such that were consistent with climate records. However, perceived impacts of climate variability differed between the two regions and were influenced by farmers' characteristics. In addition, the vast majorities of farmers were yet to make adjustments in their farming practices as a result of numerous challenges. These challenges included socioeconomic and socio-cultural barriers. Results of logit modeling showed that farmers are more likely to adapt to climate variability if contact with extension services, frequency of seeking information, household heads' education, and climate variability perceptions are improved. These results suggest the need for policy makers to understand farmers' perceptions of climate variability and change in order to formulate policies that foster adaptation, and ultimately protect China's agricultural assets.

  15. Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

    2015-11-01

    Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape.

  16. Assessing confidence in management adaptation approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, J. M.; Julius, S. H.; Weaver, C. P.

    2012-03-01

    A number of options are available for adapting ecosystem management to improve resilience in the face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty exists as to the effectiveness of these options. A report prepared for the US Climate Change Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a range of federally managed systems in the United States. The report included a qualitative uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to adaptation derived from the review. The approaches included reducing anthropogenic stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, maintaining representation, replicating, restoring, identifying refugia and relocating organisms. The results showed that the expert teams had the greatest scientific confidence in adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic stresses. Confidence in other approaches was lower because of gaps in understanding of ecosystem function, climate change impacts on ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This letter discusses insights gained from the confidence exercise and proposes strategies for improving future assessments of confidence for management adaptations to climate change.

  17. Gender differences in farmers' responses to climate change adaptation in Yongqiao District, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Jianjun; Wang, Xiaomin; Gao, Yiwei

    2015-12-15

    This study examines the gender differences in farmers' responses to climate change adaption in Yongqiao District, China. A random sampling technique was used to select 220 household heads, while descriptive statistics and binary logit models were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. We determine that male and female respondents are not significantly different in their knowledge and perceptions of climate change, but there is a gender difference in adopting climate change adaptation measures. Male-headed households are more likely to adopt new technology for water conservation and to increase investment in irrigation infrastructure. The research also indicates that the adaptation decisions of male and female heads are influenced by different sets of factors. The findings of this research help to elucidate the determinants of climate change adaptation decisions for male and female-headed households and the strategic interventions necessary for effective adaptation.

  18. Shorebird migration in the face of climate change: potential shifts in migration phenology and resource availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutzman, Ryan J.; Fontaine, Joseph J

    2015-01-01

    Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was correlated with local phenology and peaked immediately prior to peaks in invertebrate food resources. A close relationship between migrant and invertebrate phenology indicates that shorebirds may be vulnerable to changes in seasonality driven by climate change. It is possible that shifts in migrant and invertebrate phenology will be congruent in magnitude and direction, but because migration phenology is dependent on a suite of ecological factors, any response is likely to occur at a larger temporal scale and may lag behind the response of invertebrate food resources. The resulting lack of sufficient access to food at stopover habitats may cause migrants to extend migration and have cascading effects throughout their life cycle. If the heterogeneous nature of climate change results in uneven changes in phenology between migrants and their prey, it may threaten the long-term viability of migratory populations

  19. Effects of local adaptation and interspecific competition on species' responses to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bocedi, Greta; Atkins, Katherine E; Liao, Jishan; Henry, Roslyn C; Travis, Justin M J; Hellmann, Jessica J

    2013-09-01

    Local adaptation and species interactions have been shown to affect geographic ranges; therefore, we need models of climate impact that include both factors. To identify possible dynamics of species when including these factors, we ran simulations of two competing species using an individual-based, coupled map-lattice model using a linear climatic gradient that varies across latitude and is warmed over time. Reproductive success is governed by an individual's adaptation to local climate as well as its location relative to global constraints. In exploratory experiments varying the strength of adaptation and competition, competition reduces genetic diversity and slows range change, although the two species can coexist in the absence of climate change and shift in the absence of competitors. We also found that one species can drive the other to extinction, sometimes long after climate change ends. Weak selection on local adaptation and poor dispersal ability also caused surfing of cooler-adapted phenotypes from the expanding margin backwards, causing loss of warmer-adapted phenotypes. Finally, geographic ranges can become disjointed, losing centrally-adapted genotypes. These initial results suggest that the interplay between local adaptation and interspecific competition can significantly influence species' responses to climate change, in a way that demands future research.

  20. 78 FR 9387 - Notice of Availability for Public Review and Comment: Draft EPA Climate Change Adaptation Plan

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-08

    ... AGENCY Notice of Availability for Public Review and Comment: Draft EPA Climate Change Adaptation Plan... Agency Climate Change Adaptation Plans in response to the President's October 2009 Executive Order (E.O... of EPA's Climate Change Adaptation Plan has been posted to a public docket and is available on...

  1. Adapting forest management to the impacts of climate change in Canada : a BIOCAP research integration program synthesis paper

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johnston, M. [Saskatchewan Research Council, Saskatoon, SK (Canada); Williamson, T.; Price, D.; Wellstead, A. [Canadian Forest Service, Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, AB (Canada)]|[Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network, Forest Sector (Canada); Spittlehouse, D. [British Columbia Ministry of Forests, Prince George, BC (Canada); Gray, P. [Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources, Peterborough, ON (Canada); Scott, D. [Waterloo Univ., ON (Canada); Askew, S. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada); Webber, S. [Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network, Forest Sector (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    The impact of climate change on human and economic systems was evaluated in relation to Canada's forest industry. Features and properties of various social systems, policy and institutional features were reviewed. The aim of the paper was to identify the regions and systems most vulnerable to climate change in order to help in the development of mitigation plans. Differences in forest management approaches and land ownership patterns mean that it is difficult to assess the vulnerability of Canada's forests to climate change. Canada's forest industry may be at risk due to its reliance on an export-based forest economy. Market impacts will be important for British Columbia and Quebec, where forest products make a significant contribution to provincial gross domestic product (GDP). Outdoor recreation and nature-based tourism will also be impacted. It was observed that climate change has a number of important policy and planning implications for protected areas in Canada, and protected area managers will need to employ planned adjustments to moderate potential risks as well as benefit from the opportunities associated with climate change. While the use of climate, ecosystem and socio-economic models are integral to impacts and adaptation research, it was suggested that a more accurate understanding of the real long-term effects of climate change will be provided by integrated assessments that include both modelling and non-modelling approaches. It was concluded that it is critical to begin the process of developing adaptation strategies which address the biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change. Recommendations included enhancing Canada's capacity to undertake integrated assessments of system vulnerabilities at various scales; increasing resources for basic climate change impacts and adaptation science; reviewing forest policies, planning and management approaches; and developing an enhanced capacity for risk management. 408 refs., 3

  2. Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

    2016-10-01

    Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

  3. Crop advisors as climate information brokers: Building the capacity of US farmers to adapt to climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Carmen Lemos

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the role of crop advisors as brokers of climate information to support US corn farmers to adapt to climatic change. It uses quantitative data collected from a broad survey of crop advisors in the US Corn Belt to examine the factors that shape advisors’ use of (and willingness to provide climate information to their clients. Building upon a general model of climate information usability we argue that advisors’ willingness to provide climate advice to farmers is influenced by three main factors: their information seeking habits and behavior, their experience with innovation in the past, and how climate information interplays with other kinds of information that they provide—especially agronomic advice. We find that advisors’ willingness to provide climate related information depends both on factors at the individual and organizational level and on the type of advice they provide. First, at the individual and organizational levels, advisors who work in supportive organizations and who collaborate with other advisors are more likely to provide climate information. Second, advisors are more likely to provide climate information if it does not interfere with their main profit making business (e.g. provision of agronomic advice. Third, there is a significant positive relationship between trust in a greater number or sources of information and use of climate information. Fourth, the way advisors perceive short- and long-term risk also influences their willingness to provide climate information; the more concerned they are about long-term climate-related risks to farming, the more likely they are to provide (or want to provide advice based on climate information. Differently from other empirical work in the literature, our analytical model suggests that neither negative experiences with climate information in the past nor the high level of uncertainty characteristic of climate information appear to influence advisors

  4. Climate change damage functions in LCA – (1) from global warming potential to natural environment damages

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Callesen, Ingeborg; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Bagger Jørgensen, Rikke

    Energy use often is the most significant contributor to the impact category ‘global warming’ in life cycle impact assessment. However, the potential global warming effects on the climate at regional level and consequential effects on the natural environment are not thoroughly described within LCA...... methodology. The current scientific understanding of the extent of climate change impacts is limited due to the immense complexity of the multi-factorial environmental changes and unknown adaptive capacities at process, species and ecosystem level. In the presentation we argue that the global warming impacts...

  5. Mainstreaming climate adaptation into urban planning: overcoming barriers, seizing opportunities and evaluating the results in two Dutch case studies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Uittenbroek, C.J.; Janssen-Jansen, L.B.; Runhaar, H.A.C.

    2012-01-01

    With cities facing climate change, climate adaptation is necessary to reduce risks such as heat stress and flooding and maintain the goals of sustainable urban development. In climate change literature, the focus has been on developing a new dedicated policy domain for climate adaptation. Yet, empir

  6. Temperature adaptation of soil bacterial communities along an Antarctic climate gradient: predicting responses to climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rinnan, Riikka; Rousk, Johannes; Yergeau, Etienne;

    2009-01-01

    the leucine incorporation technique, in order to predict future changes in temperature sensitivity of resident soil bacterial communities. Soil samples were collected along a climate gradient consisting of locations on the Antarctic Peninsula (Anchorage Island, 67 °34'S, 68 °08'W), Signy Island (60 °43'S, 45......Soil microorganisms, the central drivers of terrestrial Antarctic ecosystems, are being confronted with increasing temperatures as parts of the continent experience considerable warming. Here we determined short-term temperature dependencies of Antarctic soil bacterial community growth rates, using...... °38'W) and the Falkland Islands (51 °76'S 59 °03'W). At each location, experimental plots were subjected to warming by open top chambers (OTCs) and paired with control plots on vegetated and fell-field habitats. The bacterial communities were adapted to the mean annual temperature of their environment...

  7. Climate change adaptation strategy for the Folk Communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdul-Al-Pavel, Muha.; Khan, Mohammed Abu Sayed Arfin; Rahman, Syed Ajijur

    2013-01-01

    In Bangladesh, impacts on agriculture from extreme climate are increasingly vulnerable. On the other hand, folk communities are intensely depending on agriculture for their livelihoods. Climate change has already negatively affected the vegetable production by annual recurrent flood in Bangladesh...

  8. Climate change, geological and hydrological hazard and adaptation policy in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Margottini, Claudio; Spizzichino, Daniele

    2010-05-01

    potential main consequences on geological and hydrological hazard, considering the investigated meteorological triggering mechanism could be synthesize as follow: the increase of intensity of precipitation may increase events such as mass movement (debris flow); higher temperature and more concentrated rainfall may also result in an increase of soil erosion; the decrease of total annual rainfall suggests the reduction of the intensity of slow movement triggered by prolonged rainfall, due to the low recharge of water table susceptible to trigger such phenomena; the heavy rainfall may cause triggering of flash flood especially in the Alpine foothills and mountain ranges; the decrease of annual average precipitation suggest a general reduction of average discharge of the rivers; the reduction of permafrost, due to increase of temperature may cause an increase of slope deformations in terms of rock falls, sliding, toppling rapid debris flow in the area actually stable and covered by permafrost. In order to define the complex correlation between climate change and geological and hydrological hazard to better define the policy of adaptation the following strategies must to be adopted: implementing the knowledge on hazard and risk assessment, focusing on the role of rainfall, as main triggering mechanism of floods and landslides; understanding the meteorological trends in Italy in the last 200 years; analyzing hazard mapping in relationship to land use and triggering mechanisms; evaluating long term scenarios as input for potential modification of triggering mechanisms; understanding the impact of modification of future scenario to present day hazard map; delineate the main issues for an adaptation plan, suitable to minimise, from now, the adverse effects of Climate Change strengthening as well the resilience; better understanding of the anthropogenic system response and causative forcing to occurrence of disasters. In the field of territorial vulnerability to climate change

  9. Framework for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaption in Cities by Utilizing Green Infrastructure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Prapaspongsa, Trakarn; Davidson, Cliff I.; Jindal, Ranjina;

    Climate change has threatened global security of ecosystems, human health and natural resources. These threats have increased demand for various mitigation technology solutions as well as effective strategies for adapting to anticipated impacts. Green infrastructure (GI) technologies such as green...... roofs and urban forestry are viewed as ones of the best climate adaptation strategies in cities. This study aims to develop a framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation (CCMA) in cities by using green infrastructure technologies. The framework is established by integrating existing green...

  10. Adaptation strategies to climate variability and change and its limitations to smallholder farmers. A literature search

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank Phillipo

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In sub-Saharan Africa, knowledge on adaptation strategies to climate variability and change are scattered and fragmented due to lack of standpoints adaptation framework. This paper intends to analyse differences in adaptation strategies across agro-ecological zones, and finding out factors dictating adaptation to climate variability and change to smallholder farmers. The paper is based on documentary review methodology in which journals and books on adaptation were used as the main sources of information. The collected information were analysed by using content analysis. This paper found that smallholder farmers use a variety of practices to adapt to climate variability and change. These practices include: crop management, livestock management, diversification of livelihood strategies and land use management. Availability of extension services, climate change information and membership to social networks were among the factors identified dictating smallholder farmers adaptation to climate variability and change. The paper recommends to the Government of sub-Saharan Africa and development partners to come up with adaptation framework that takes into consideration differences in geographical location. They are needed also to provide enabling conditions to smallholder farmers through strengthening farmers’ supportive services to enhance their adaptive capacities.

  11. Climate change adaptation: What does it mean for me?; Klimatilpasning: hva betyr det for meg?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Brien, Karen; Mittet, Siri; Bakkeslett, Eva; Eriksen, Siri; Hansen-Bauer, Inger; Hovelsrud, Grete; Inderberg, Tor Haakon; Ruud, Cathrine; Saglie, Inger-Lise; Sygna, Inger Lise

    2012-11-01

    The book 'Climate Change Adaptation: What Does it Mean for Me?' is written as a collective endeavor in the PLAN project (link this to the webpage), an interdisciplinary research project that focuses on climate change adaptation in Norway. With contributions from multiple disciplines, including arts, the book introduces a variety of perspectives and interpretations on adaptation. Focusing on climate change adaptation as a social, cultural and human process, this book recognizes that adaptation is more than a technical problem that can be addressed through technology, management and expertise. It is also an adaptive challenge that calls for attention to the values, beliefs, habits, loyalties and interests that sustain behaviors, systems, structures, and institutions in a changing climate. Confronted with complex and non-linear risks associates with climate change, and the interactions by other processes of change, this book call for a more comprehensive interpretation of adaptation, where both subjective and objective aspects are considered. This book thus goes beyond most contemporary understandings of adaptation, by focusing on the personal dimensions of adaptation. Arguing that the greatest adaptation of all may be the realization that humanity is in fact changing the climate and that we as individuals can do something about it, that we can {sup c}hange the change{sup ,} the book discusses the role of the arts, engaged individuals and different forms of leadership in levering change towards a more sustainable future. Full reference to the book: Karen O'Brien, Siri Mittet, Eva Bakkeslett, Siri Eriksen, Inger Hansen-Bauer, Grete Hovelsrud, Tor-Haakon Inderberg, Cathrine Ruud, Inger-Lise Saglie, and Linda Sygna (2012) Klimatilpasning: Hva betyr det for meg/ Climate Change Adaptation: What Does it Mean for Me?, Unipub forlag, 108 pages (in Norwegian). Online. Available HTTP: < http://www.sv.uio.no/iss/forskning/prosjekter/plan/klimatilpasning--hva-betyr-det-for-meg.pdf>.(auth)

  12. The Land-Potential Knowledge System (LandPKS): mobile apps and collaboration for optimizing climate change investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massive investments in climate change mitigation and adaptation are projected during coming decades. Many of these investments will seek to modify how land is managed. The return on both types of investments can be increased through an understanding of land potential: the potential of the land to s...

  13. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melanie Boeckmann

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.

  14. Facilitating climate change adaptation through communication: Insights from the development of a visualization tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Glaas, Erik; Ballantyne, Anne Gammelgaard; Neset, Tina

    2015-01-01

    Climate change communication on anticipated impacts and adaptive responses is frequently presented as an effective means to facilitate implementation of adaptation to mitigate risks to residential buildings. However, it requires that communication is developed in a way that resonates...... with the context of the target audience, provides intelligible information and addresses perceived barriers to adaptation. In this paper we reflect upon criteria for useful climate change communication gained over a three year development process of a web-based tool - VisAdaptTM – aimed at increasing the adaptive...... capacity among Nordic homeowners. Based on the results from continuous user-testing and focus group interviews we outline lessons learned and key aspects to consider in the design of tools for communicating complex issues such as climate change effects and adaptive response measures....

  15. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2016-01-01

    Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers. PMID:27618121

  16. Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2016-09-07

    Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers.

  17. Vulnerabilities and Adapting Irrigated and Rainfed Cotton to Climate Change in the Lower Mississippi Delta Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saseendran S. Anapalli

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Anthropogenic activities continue to emit potential greenhouse gases (GHG into the atmosphere leading to a warmer climate over the earth. Predicting the impacts of climate change (CC on food and fiber production systems in the future is essential for devising adaptations to sustain production and environmental quality. We used the CSM-CROPGRO-cotton v4.6 module within the RZWQM2 model for predicting the possible impacts of CC on cotton (Gossypium hirsutum production systems in the lower Mississippi Delta (MS Delta region of the USA. The CC scenarios were based on an ensemble of climate projections of multiple GCMs (Global Climate Models/General Circulation Models for climate change under the CMIP5 (Climate Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Program 5 program, that were bias-corrected and spatially downscaled (BCSD at Stoneville location in the MS Delta for the years 2050 and 2080. Four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP drove these CC projections: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 (these numbers refer to radiative forcing levels in the atmosphere of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W·m−2, representing the increasing levels of the greenhouse gas (GHG emission scenarios for the future, as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR5. The cotton model within RZWQM2, calibrated and validated for simulating cotton production at Stoneville, was used for simulating production under these CC scenarios. Under irrigated conditions, cotton yields increased significantly under the CC scenarios driven by the low to moderate emission levels of RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 6.0 in years 2050 and 2080, but under the highest emission scenario of RCP 8.5, the cotton yield increased in 2050 but declined significantly in year 2080. Under rainfed conditions, the yield declined in both 2050 and 2080 under all four RCP scenarios; however, the yield still increased when enough rainfall was received to meet the water requirements of the crop (in

  18. Roadmap towards justice in urban climate adaptation research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shi, L.; Chu, E.; Anguelovski, I.; Aylett, A.; Debats, J.; Goh, K.; Schenk, T.; Seto, K.C.; Dodman, D.; Roberts, D.; Roberts, J.T.; VanDeveer, S.D.

    2016-01-01

    The 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21) highlighted the importance of cities to climate action, as well as the unjust burdens borne by the world's most disadvantaged peoples in addressing climate impacts. Few studies have documented the barriers to redressing the drivers o

  19. Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa

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