Numerical Simulation of Flood Levels for Tropical Rivers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohammed, Thamer Ahmed; Said, Salim; Bardaie, Mohd Zohadie; Basri, Shah Nor

2011-01-01

Flood forecasting is important for flood damage reduction. As a result of advances in the numerical methods and computer technologies, many mathematical models have been developed and used for hydraulic simulation of the flood. These simulations usually include the prediction of the flood width and depth along a watercourse. Results obtained from the application of hydraulic models will help engineers to take precautionary measures to minimize flood damage. Hydraulic models were used to simulate the flood can be classified into dynamic hydraulic models and static hydraulic models. The HEC-2 static hydraulic model was used to predict water surface profiles for Linggi river and Langat river in Malaysia. The model is based on the numerical solution of the one dimensional energy equation of the steady gradually varied flow using the iteration technique. Calibration and verification of the HEC-2 model were conducted using the recorded data for both rivers. After calibration, the model was applied to predict the water surface profiles for Q10, Q30, and Q100 along the watercourse of the Linggi river. The water surface profile for Q200 for Langat river was predicted. The predicted water surface profiles were found in agreement with the recorded water surface profiles. The value of the maximum computed absolute error in the predicted water surface profile was found to be 500 mm while the minimum absolute error was 20 mm only.

Flood simulation model using XP-SWMM along Terengganu River ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Malaysia is one of the tropical countries in the world with heavy rainfall throughout the year and floods are the most common disaster in Malaysia. Flood simulation model was carried out along Terengganu River for dry and rainy seasons. The result of the simulation shows the water level reached its maximum level at the 1st ...

3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prescott, Steven; Mandelli, Diego; Sampath, Ramprasad; Smith, Curtis; Lin, Linyu

2015-01-01

Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to the design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.

3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Curtis [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Lin, Linyu [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to the design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.

Modeling and simulation of surfactant-polymer flooding using a new hybrid method

Science.gov (United States)

Daripa, Prabir; Dutta, Sourav

2017-04-01

Chemical enhanced oil recovery by surfactant-polymer (SP) flooding has been studied in two space dimensions. A new global pressure for incompressible, immiscible, multicomponent two-phase porous media flow has been derived in the context of SP flooding. This has been used to formulate a system of flow equations that incorporates the effect of capillary pressure and also the effect of polymer and surfactant on viscosity, interfacial tension and relative permeabilities of the two phases. The coupled system of equations for pressure, water saturation, polymer concentration and surfactant concentration has been solved using a new hybrid method in which the elliptic global pressure equation is solved using a discontinuous finite element method and the transport equations for water saturation and concentrations of the components are solved by a Modified Method Of Characteristics (MMOC) in the multicomponent setting. Numerical simulations have been performed to validate the method, both qualitatively and quantitatively, and to evaluate the relative performance of the various flooding schemes for several different heterogeneous reservoirs.

Sacrificial adsorbate for surfactants utilized in chemical floods of enhanced oil recovery operations

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Jr., James S.; Westmoreland, Clyde G.

1982-01-01

The present invention is directed to a sacrificial or competitive adsorbate for surfactants contained in chemical flooding emulsions for enhanced oil recovery operations. The adsorbate to be utilized in the method of the present invention is a caustic effluent from the bleach stage or the weak black liquor from the digesters and pulp washers of the kraft pulping process. This effluent or weak black liquor is injected into an oil-bearing subterranean earth formation prior to or concurrent with the chemical flood emulsion and is adsorbed on the active mineral surfaces of the formation matrix so as to effectively reduce adsorption of surfactant in the chemical flood. Alternatively, the effluent or liquor can be injected into the subterranean earth formation subsequent to a chemical flood to displace the surfactant from the mineral surfaces for the recovery thereof.

Feasibility of oil recovery by chemical flooding through horizontal wells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

El-Abbas, A.M.; El-Sallaly, M. E.; Sayyouh, M. H.; El-Batanony, M. H.; Darwich, T. M.; Desouky, S. M. [Cairo Univ (Egypt)

1998-12-31

Crude oil production in the Gulf of Suez by polymer, surfactant, and surfactant/polymer flooding from a horizontal well in a scaled five-spot sandpacked model was studied. The suitability of the enhanced oil recovery predictive models, developed by the U.S. Department of Energy, was investigated for their ability to predict the experimental data and to assess the feasibility of oil recovery by chemical flooding. Good agreement was found between the predicted and experimental values. Experimental results showed that oil recovery was significantly affected by the physical properties of the crude oil and chemical solutions; that oil recovery was higher for a polymer flooding than for a surfactant flooding operation; and that oil recovery was improved by increasing the perforated length ratio up to a value of 0.81. A tendency for oil recovery to decrease was observed when the horizontal well was positioned below or above the central axis path of the formation at the advanced injection stages; and oil recovery by surfactant or polymer flooding was significantly affected by the onset timing of the surfactant or polymer slug injection. The oil-water bank stability in surfactant and polymer flooding processes was found to be dependent on slug size and slug injection time. 23 refs., 1 tab., 17 figs.

Evaluation and Optimization Study on a Hybrid EOR Technique Named as Chemical-Alternating-Foam Floods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xu Xingguang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This work presents a novel Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR method called Chemical-Alternating-Foam (CAF floods in order to overcome the drawbacks of the conventional foam flooding such as insufficient amount of in-situ foams, severe foam collapse and surfactant retention. The first part of this research focused on the comparison of conventional foam floods and CAF floods both of which had the same amount of gas and chemicals. It showed that: (1 CAF floods possessed the much greater Residual Resistance Factor (RRF at elevated temperature; (2 the accumulative oil recovery of the CAF floods was 10%-15% higher than that of the conventional foam flooding. After 1.8 Pore Volume (PV injection, the oil recovery reached the plateau for both methods; (3 CAF floods yielded the most amount of incremental oil at the 98% water cut (water content in the effluent, while the continuous foam floods achieved the best performance at 60% water cut. The second part of this work determined the optimal foam quality (gas/liquid ratio or the volume percent gas within foam, chemical/foam slug size ratio, cycle number and injection sequence for the CAF floods. It was found that the CAF was endowed with the peak performance if the foam quality, chemical/foam slug size ratio, cycle number was fixed at 80%, 1:1 and 3 respectively with the chemical slug being introduced ahead of the foam slug. Through systematic and thorough research, the proposed hybrid process has been approved to be a viable and effective method significantly strengthening the conventional foam flooding.

Conditional flood frequency and catchment state: a simulation approach

Science.gov (United States)

Brettschneider, Marco; Bourgin, François; Merz, Bruno; Andreassian, Vazken; Blaquiere, Simon

2017-04-01

Catchments have memory and the conditional flood frequency distribution for a time period ahead can be seen as non-stationary: it varies with the catchment state and climatic factors. From a risk management perspective, understanding the link of conditional flood frequency to catchment state is a key to anticipate potential periods of higher flood risk. Here, we adopt a simulation approach to explore the link between flood frequency obtained by continuous rainfall-runoff simulation and the initial state of the catchment. The simulation chain is based on i) a three state rainfall generator applied at the catchment scale, whose parameters are estimated for each month, and ii) the GR4J lumped rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters are calibrated with all available data. For each month, a large number of stochastic realizations of the continuous rainfall generator for the next 12 months are used as inputs for the GR4J model in order to obtain a large number of stochastic realizations for the next 12 months. This process is then repeated for 50 different initial states of the soil moisture reservoir of the GR4J model and for all the catchments. Thus, 50 different conditional flood frequency curves are obtained for the 50 different initial catchment states. We will present an analysis of the link between the catchment states, the period of the year and the strength of the conditioning of the flood frequency compared to the unconditional flood frequency. A large sample of diverse catchments in France will be used.

Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

2016-04-01

There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several

Flash Floods Simulation using a Physical-Based Hydrological Model at Different Hydroclimatic Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Saber, Mohamed; Kamil Yilmaz, Koray

2016-04-01

Currently, flash floods are seriously increasing and affecting many regions over the world. Therefore, this study will focus on two case studies; Wadi Abu Subeira, Egypt as arid environment, and Karpuz basin, Turkey as Mediterranean environment. The main objective of this work is to simulate flash floods at both catchments considering the hydrometeorological differences between them which in turn effect their flash flood behaviors. An integrated methodology incorporating Hydrological River Basin Environmental Assessment Model (Hydro-BEAM) and remote sensing observations was devised. Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMAP) were compared with the rain gauge network at the target basins to estimate the bias in an effort to further use it effectively in simulation of flash floods. Based on the preliminary results of flash floods simulation on both basins, we found that runoff behaviors of flash floods are different due to the impacts of climatology, hydrological and topographical conditions. Also, the simulated surface runoff hydrographs are reasonably coincide with the simulated ones. Consequently, some mitigation strategies relying on this study could be introduced to help in reducing the flash floods disasters at different climate regions. This comparison of different climatic basins would be a reasonable implication for the potential impact of climate change on the flash floods frequencies and occurrences.

Automatic domain updating technique for improving computational efficiency of 2-D flood-inundation simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, T.; Tachikawa, Y.; Ichikawa, Y.; Yorozu, K.

2017-12-01

Flood is one of the most hazardous disasters and causes serious damage to people and property around the world. To prevent/mitigate flood damage through early warning system and/or river management planning, numerical modelling of flood-inundation processes is essential. In a literature, flood-inundation models have been extensively developed and improved to achieve flood flow simulation with complex topography at high resolution. With increasing demands on flood-inundation modelling, its computational burden is now one of the key issues. Improvements of computational efficiency of full shallow water equations are made from various perspectives such as approximations of the momentum equations, parallelization technique, and coarsening approaches. To support these techniques and more improve the computational efficiency of flood-inundation simulations, this study proposes an Automatic Domain Updating (ADU) method of 2-D flood-inundation simulation. The ADU method traces the wet and dry interface and automatically updates the simulation domain in response to the progress and recession of flood propagation. The updating algorithm is as follow: first, to register the simulation cells potentially flooded at initial stage (such as floodplains nearby river channels), and then if a registered cell is flooded, to register its surrounding cells. The time for this additional process is saved by checking only cells at wet and dry interface. The computation time is reduced by skipping the processing time of non-flooded area. This algorithm is easily applied to any types of 2-D flood inundation models. The proposed ADU method is implemented to 2-D local inertial equations for the Yodo River basin, Japan. Case studies for two flood events show that the simulation is finished within two to 10 times smaller time showing the same result as that without the ADU method.

Two modelling approaches to water-quality simulation in a flooded iron-ore mine (Saizerais, Lorraine, France): a semi-distributed chemical reactor model and a physically based distributed reactive transport pipe network model.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamm, V; Collon-Drouaillet, P; Fabriol, R

2008-02-19

The flooding of abandoned mines in the Lorraine Iron Basin (LIB) over the past 25 years has degraded the quality of the groundwater tapped for drinking water. High concentrations of dissolved sulphate have made the water unsuitable for human consumption. This problematic issue has led to the development of numerical tools to support water-resource management in mining contexts. Here we examine two modelling approaches using different numerical tools that we tested on the Saizerais flooded iron-ore mine (Lorraine, France). A first approach considers the Saizerais Mine as a network of two chemical reactors (NCR). The second approach is based on a physically distributed pipe network model (PNM) built with EPANET 2 software. This approach considers the mine as a network of pipes defined by their geometric and chemical parameters. Each reactor in the NCR model includes a detailed chemical model built to simulate quality evolution in the flooded mine water. However, in order to obtain a robust PNM, we simplified the detailed chemical model into a specific sulphate dissolution-precipitation model that is included as sulphate source/sink in both a NCR model and a pipe network model. Both the NCR model and the PNM, based on different numerical techniques, give good post-calibration agreement between the simulated and measured sulphate concentrations in the drinking-water well and overflow drift. The NCR model incorporating the detailed chemical model is useful when a detailed chemical behaviour at the overflow is needed. The PNM incorporating the simplified sulphate dissolution-precipitation model provides better information of the physics controlling the effect of flow and low flow zones, and the time of solid sulphate removal whereas the NCR model will underestimate clean-up time due to the complete mixing assumption. In conclusion, the detailed NCR model will give a first assessment of chemical processes at overflow, and in a second time, the PNM model will provide more

Simulating floods : On the application of a 2D-hydraulic model for flood hazard and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alkema, D.

2007-01-01

Over the last decades, river floods in Europe seem to occur more frequently and are causing more and more economic and emotional damage. Understanding the processes causing flooding and the development of simulation models to evaluate countermeasures to control that damage are important issues. This

Combined effects of soil moisture and carbaryl to earthworms and plants: Simulation of flood and drought scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lima, Maria P.R.; Soares, Amadeu M.V.M. [Department of Biology and CESAM, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal); Loureiro, Susana, E-mail: sloureiro@ua.pt [Department of Biology and CESAM, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro (Portugal)

2011-07-15

Studying tolerance limits in organisms exposed to climatic variations is key to understanding effects on behaviour and physiology. The presence of pollutants may influence these tolerance limits, by altering the toxicity or bioavailability of the chemical. In this work, the plant species Brassica rapa and Triticum aestivum and the earthworm Eisenia andrei were exposed to different levels of soil moisture and carbaryl, as natural and chemical stressors, respectively. Both stress factors were tested individually, as well as in combination. Acute and chronic tests were performed and results were discussed in order to evaluate the responses of organisms to the combination of stressors. When possible, data was fitted to widely employed models for describing chemical mixture responses. Synergistic interactions were observed in earthworms exposed to carbaryl and drought conditions, while antagonistic interactions were more representative for plants, especially in relation to biomass loss under flood-simulation conditions. - Highlights: > Climate variations may cause changes on chemicals' toxicity or bioavailability. > Earthworms and plants are exposed simultaneously to carbaryl and flood and drought conditions. > The IA model and possible deviations were used to evaluate combination exposures. > Synergism was observed for earthworms exposed to carbaryl and drought conditions. > Antagonistic interactions were observed for plants, in flood conditions and carbaryl. - Soil moisture can play an important role in carbaryl toxicity towards plants and earthworms.

Combined effects of soil moisture and carbaryl to earthworms and plants: Simulation of flood and drought scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lima, Maria P.R.; Soares, Amadeu M.V.M.; Loureiro, Susana

2011-01-01

Studying tolerance limits in organisms exposed to climatic variations is key to understanding effects on behaviour and physiology. The presence of pollutants may influence these tolerance limits, by altering the toxicity or bioavailability of the chemical. In this work, the plant species Brassica rapa and Triticum aestivum and the earthworm Eisenia andrei were exposed to different levels of soil moisture and carbaryl, as natural and chemical stressors, respectively. Both stress factors were tested individually, as well as in combination. Acute and chronic tests were performed and results were discussed in order to evaluate the responses of organisms to the combination of stressors. When possible, data was fitted to widely employed models for describing chemical mixture responses. Synergistic interactions were observed in earthworms exposed to carbaryl and drought conditions, while antagonistic interactions were more representative for plants, especially in relation to biomass loss under flood-simulation conditions. - Highlights: → Climate variations may cause changes on chemicals' toxicity or bioavailability. → Earthworms and plants are exposed simultaneously to carbaryl and flood and drought conditions. → The IA model and possible deviations were used to evaluate combination exposures. → Synergism was observed for earthworms exposed to carbaryl and drought conditions. → Antagonistic interactions were observed for plants, in flood conditions and carbaryl. - Soil moisture can play an important role in carbaryl toxicity towards plants and earthworms.

Fast Simulation of Large-Scale Floods Based on GPU Parallel Computing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qiang Liu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Computing speed is a significant issue of large-scale flood simulations for real-time response to disaster prevention and mitigation. Even today, most of the large-scale flood simulations are generally run on supercomputers due to the massive amounts of data and computations necessary. In this work, a two-dimensional shallow water model based on an unstructured Godunov-type finite volume scheme was proposed for flood simulation. To realize a fast simulation of large-scale floods on a personal computer, a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU-based, high-performance computing method using the OpenACC application was adopted to parallelize the shallow water model. An unstructured data management method was presented to control the data transportation between the GPU and CPU (Central Processing Unit with minimum overhead, and then both computation and data were offloaded from the CPU to the GPU, which exploited the computational capability of the GPU as much as possible. The parallel model was validated using various benchmarks and real-world case studies. The results demonstrate that speed-ups of up to one order of magnitude can be achieved in comparison with the serial model. The proposed parallel model provides a fast and reliable tool with which to quickly assess flood hazards in large-scale areas and, thus, has a bright application prospect for dynamic inundation risk identification and disaster assessment.

Continuous hydrologic simulation and flood-frequency, hydraulic, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed, Kane County, Illinois

Science.gov (United States)

Soong, David T.; Straub, Timothy D.; Murphy, Elizabeth A.

2006-01-01

Results of hydrologic model, flood-frequency, hydraulic model, and flood-hazard analysis of the Blackberry Creek watershed in Kane County, Illinois, indicate that the 100-year and 500-year flood plains range from approximately 25 acres in the tributary F watershed (a headwater subbasin at the northeastern corner of the watershed) to almost 1,800 acres in Blackberry Creek main stem. Based on 1996 land-cover data, most of the land in the 100-year and 500-year flood plains was cropland, forested and wooded land, and grassland. A relatively small percentage of urban land was in the flood plains. The Blackberry Creek watershed has undergone rapid urbanization in recent decades. The population and urbanized lands in the watershed are projected to double from the 1990 condition by 2020. Recently, flood-induced damage has occurred more frequently in urbanized areas of the watershed. There are concerns about the effect of urbanization on flood peaks and volumes, future flood-mitigation plans, and potential effects on the water quality and stream habitats. This report describes the procedures used in developing the hydrologic models, estimating the flood-peak discharge magnitudes and recurrence intervals for flood-hazard analysis, developing the hydraulic model, and the results of the analysis in graphical and tabular form. The hydrologic model, Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), was used to perform the simulation of continuous water movements through various patterns of land uses in the watershed. Flood-frequency analysis was applied to an annual maximum series to determine flood quantiles in subbasins for flood-hazard analysis. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) hydraulic model was used to determine the 100-year and 500-year flood elevations, and to determine the 100-year floodway. The hydraulic model was calibrated and verified using high water marks and observed inundation maps for the July 17-18, 1996, flood event. Digital

A fast method for optical simulation of flood maps of light-sharing detector modules

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shi, Han; Du, Dong; Xu, JianFeng; Moses, William W.; Peng, Qiyu

2015-01-01

Optical simulation of the detector module level is highly desired for Position Emission Tomography (PET) system design. Commonly used simulation toolkits such as GATE are not efficient in the optical simulation of detector modules with complicated light-sharing configurations, where a vast amount of photons need to be tracked. We present a fast approach based on a simplified specular reflectance model and a structured light-tracking algorithm to speed up the photon tracking in detector modules constructed with polished finish and specular reflector materials. We simulated conventional block detector designs with different slotted light guide patterns using the new approach and compared the outcomes with those from GATE simulations. While the two approaches generated comparable flood maps, the new approach was more than 200–600 times faster. The new approach has also been validated by constructing a prototype detector and comparing the simulated flood map with the experimental flood map. The experimental flood map has nearly uniformly distributed spots similar to those in the simulated flood map. In conclusion, the new approach provides a fast and reliable simulation tool for assisting in the development of light-sharing-based detector modules with a polished surface finish and using specular reflector materials.

HYDRAULIC SIMULATION OF FLASH FLOOD AS TRIGGERED BY NATURAL DAM BREAK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanuar Tri Kurniawan

2015-05-01

Calibration model result showed that the height of natural dam significantly influence changes of water surface elevation at control point. Tracing of flood result in reconstruction of January 2006 flood showed the conformity with the real event. It was observed from the arrival time of flood at certain location. From obtained results, it can be concluded that simulation modeling gave the acceptable results.

Hydrologic Simulation in Mediterranean flood prone Watersheds using high-resolution quality data

Science.gov (United States)

Eirini Vozinaki, Anthi; Alexakis, Dimitrios; Pappa, Polixeni; Tsanis, Ioannis

2015-04-01

Flooding is a significant threat causing lots of inconveniencies in several societies, worldwide. The fact that the climatic change is already happening, increases the flooding risk, which is no longer a substantial menace to several societies and their economies. The improvement of spatial-resolution and accuracy of the topography and land use data due to remote sensing techniques could provide integrated flood inundation simulations. In this work hydrological analysis of several historic flood events in Mediterranean flood prone watersheds (island of Crete/Greece) takes place. Satellite images of high resolution are elaborated. A very high resolution (VHR) digital elevation model (DEM) is produced from a GeoEye-1 0.5-m-resolution satellite stereo pair and is used for floodplain management and mapping applications such as watershed delineation and river cross-section extraction. Sophisticated classification algorithms are implemented for improving Land Use/ Land Cover maps accuracy. In addition, soil maps are updated with means of Radar satellite images. The above high-resolution data are innovatively used to simulate and validate several historical flood events in Mediterranean watersheds, which have experienced severe flooding in the past. The hydrologic/hydraulic models used for flood inundation simulation in this work are HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS. The Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) curve number (CN) approach is implemented to account for the effect of LULC and soil on the hydrologic response of the catchment. The use of high resolution data provides detailed validation results and results of high precision, accordingly. Furthermore, the meteorological forecasting data, which are also combined to the simulation model results, manage the development of an integrated flood forecasting and early warning system tool, which is capable of confronting or even preventing this imminent risk. The research reported in this paper was fully supported by the

Why continuous simulation? The role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Pathiraja, S.; Westra, S.; Sharma, A.

2012-06-01

Continuous simulation for design flood estimation is increasingly becoming a viable alternative to traditional event-based methods. The advantage of continuous simulation approaches is that the catchment moisture state prior to the flood-producing rainfall event is implicitly incorporated within the modeling framework, provided the model has been calibrated and validated to produce reasonable simulations. This contrasts with event-based models in which both information about the expected sequence of rainfall and evaporation preceding the flood-producing rainfall event, as well as catchment storage and infiltration properties, are commonly pooled together into a single set of "loss" parameters which require adjustment through the process of calibration. To identify the importance of accounting for antecedent moisture in flood modeling, this paper uses a continuous rainfall-runoff model calibrated to 45 catchments in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Flood peaks derived using the historical daily rainfall record are compared with those derived using resampled daily rainfall, for which the sequencing of wet and dry days preceding the heavy rainfall event is removed. The analysis shows that there is a consistent underestimation of the design flood events when antecedent moisture is not properly simulated, which can be as much as 30% when only 1 or 2 days of antecedent rainfall are considered, compared to 5% when this is extended to 60 days of prior rainfall. These results show that, in general, it is necessary to consider both short-term memory in rainfall associated with synoptic scale dependence, as well as longer-term memory at seasonal or longer time scale variability in order to obtain accurate design flood estimates.

D Hydrodynamics Simulation of Amazonian Seasonally Flooded Wetlands

Science.gov (United States)

Pinel, S. S.; Bonnet, M. P.; Da Silva, J. S.; Cavalcanti, R., Sr.; Calmant, S.

2016-12-01

In the low Amazonian basin, interactions between floodplains and river channels are important in terms of water exchanges, sediments, or nutrients. These wetlands are considered as hotspot of biodiversity and are among the most productive in the world. However, they are threatened by climatic changes and anthropic activities. Hence, considering the implications for predicting inundation status of floodplain habitats, the strong interactions between water circulation, energy fluxes, biogeochemical and ecological processes, detailed analyses of flooding dynamics are useful and needed. Numerical inundation models offer means to study the interactions among different water sources. Modeling floods events in this area is challenging because flows respond to dynamic hydraulic controls coming from several water sources, complex geomorphology, and vegetation. In addition, due to the difficulty of access, there is a lack of existing hydrological data. In this context, the use of monitoring systems by remote sensing is a good option. In this study, we simulated filling and drainage processes of an Amazon floodplain (Janauacá Lake, AM, Brazil) over a 6 years period (2006-2012). Common approaches of flow modeling in the Amazon region consist of coupling a 1D simulation of the main channel flood wave to a 2D simulation of the inundation of the floodplain. Here, our approach differs as the floodplain is fully simulated. Model used is the 3D model IPH-ECO, which consists of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic module coupled with an ecosystem module. The IPH-ECO hydrodynamic module solves the Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations using a semi-implicit discretization. After having calibrated the simulation against roughness coefficients, we validated the model in terms of vertical accuracy against water levels (daily in situ and altimetrics data), in terms of flood extent against inundation maps deduced from available remote-sensed product imagery (ALOS-1/PALSAR.), and in terms

Flood Scenario Simulation and Disaster Estimation of Ba-Ma Creek Watershed in Nantou County, Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

Peng, S. H.; Hsu, Y. K.

2018-04-01

The present study proposed several scenario simulations of flood disaster according to the historical flood event and planning requirement in Ba-Ma Creek Watershed located in Nantou County, Taiwan. The simulations were made using the FLO-2D model, a numerical model which can compute the velocity and depth of flood on a two-dimensional terrain. Meanwhile, the calculated data were utilized to estimate the possible damage incurred by the flood disaster. The results thus obtained can serve as references for disaster prevention. Moreover, the simulated results could be employed for flood disaster estimation using the method suggested by the Water Resources Agency of Taiwan. Finally, the conclusions and perspectives are presented.

Prediction of Flood Warning in Taiwan Using Nonlinear SVM with Simulated Annealing Algorithm

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, C.

2013-12-01

The issue of the floods is important in Taiwan. It is because the narrow and high topography of the island make lots of rivers steep in Taiwan. The tropical depression likes typhoon always causes rivers to flood. Prediction of river flow under the extreme rainfall circumstances is important for government to announce the warning of flood. Every time typhoon passed through Taiwan, there were always floods along some rivers. The warning is classified to three levels according to the warning water levels in Taiwan. The propose of this study is to predict the level of floods warning from the information of precipitation, rainfall duration and slope of riverbed. To classify the level of floods warning by the above-mentioned information and modeling the problems, a machine learning model, nonlinear Support vector machine (SVM), is formulated to classify the level of floods warning. In addition, simulated annealing (SA), a probabilistic heuristic algorithm, is used to determine the optimal parameter of the SVM model. A case study of flooding-trend rivers of different gradients in Taiwan is conducted. The contribution of this SVM model with simulated annealing is capable of making efficient announcement for flood warning and keeping the danger of flood from residents along the rivers.

A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

2014-05-01

The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

Flood management: prediction of microbial contamination in large-scale floods in urban environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Jonathon; Lai, Ka Man; Davies, Mike; Clifton, David; Ridley, Ian; Biddulph, Phillip

2011-07-01

With a changing climate and increased urbanisation, the occurrence and the impact of flooding is expected to increase significantly. Floods can bring pathogens into homes and cause lingering damp and microbial growth in buildings, with the level of growth and persistence dependent on the volume and chemical and biological content of the flood water, the properties of the contaminating microbes, and the surrounding environmental conditions, including the restoration time and methods, the heat and moisture transport properties of the envelope design, and the ability of the construction material to sustain the microbial growth. The public health risk will depend on the interaction of these complex processes and the vulnerability and susceptibility of occupants in the affected areas. After the 2007 floods in the UK, the Pitt review noted that there is lack of relevant scientific evidence and consistency with regard to the management and treatment of flooded homes, which not only put the local population at risk but also caused unnecessary delays in the restoration effort. Understanding the drying behaviour of flooded buildings in the UK building stock under different scenarios, and the ability of microbial contaminants to grow, persist, and produce toxins within these buildings can help inform recovery efforts. To contribute to future flood management, this paper proposes the use of building simulations and biological models to predict the risk of microbial contamination in typical UK buildings. We review the state of the art with regard to biological contamination following flooding, relevant building simulation, simulation-linked microbial modelling, and current practical considerations in flood remediation. Using the city of London as an example, a methodology is proposed that uses GIS as a platform to integrate drying models and microbial risk models with the local building stock and flood models. The integrated tool will help local governments, health authorities

Simulation experiment on the flooding behaviour of core melts: KATS-9

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fieg, G.; Massier, H.; Schuetz, W.; Stegmaier, U.; Stern, G.

2000-11-01

For future Light Water Reactors special devices (core catchers) are being developed to prevent containment failure by basement erosion after reactor pressure vessel meltthrough during a core meltdown accident. Quick freezing of the molten core masses is desirable to reduce release of radioactivity. Several concepts of core catcher devices have been proposed based on the spreading of corium melt onto flat surfaces with subsequent water cooling. A KATS-experiment has been performed to investigate the flooding behaviour of high temperature melts using alumina-iron thermite melts as a simulant. The oxidic thermite melt is conditioned by adding other oxides to simulate a realistic corium melt as close as possible in terms of liquidus and solidus temperatures. Before flooding with water, spreading of the separate oxidic and metallic melts has been done in one-dimensional channels with a silicate concrete as the substrate. The flooding rate was, in relation to the melt surface, identical to the flooding rate in EPR. (orig.) [de

The validity of flow approximations when simulating catchment-integrated flash floods

Science.gov (United States)

Bout, B.; Jetten, V. G.

2018-01-01

Within hydrological models, flow approximations are commonly used to reduce computation time. The validity of these approximations is strongly determined by flow height, flow velocity and the spatial resolution of the model. In this presentation, the validity and performance of the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximations are investigated for use in a catchment-based flood model. Particularly, the validity during flood events and for varying spatial resolutions is investigated. The OpenLISEM hydrological model is extended to implement both these flow approximations and channel flooding based on dynamic flow. The flow approximations are used to recreate measured discharge in three catchments, among which is the hydrograph of the 2003 flood event in the Fella river basin. Furthermore, spatial resolutions are varied for the flood simulation in order to investigate the influence of spatial resolution on these flow approximations. Results show that the kinematic, diffusive and dynamic flow approximation provide least to highest accuracy, respectively, in recreating measured discharge. Kinematic flow, which is commonly used in hydrological modelling, substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity in the simulations with a spatial resolution of below 30 m. Since spatial resolutions of models have strongly increased over the past decades, usage of routed kinematic flow should be reconsidered. The combination of diffusive or dynamic overland flow and dynamic channel flooding provides high accuracy in recreating the 2003 Fella river flood event. Finally, in the case of flood events, spatial modelling of kinematic flow substantially over-estimates hydrological connectivity and flow concentration since pressure forces are removed, leading to significant errors.

Analysis and Comparison on the Flood Simulation in Typical Hilly & Semi-mountainous Region

Science.gov (United States)

Luan, Qinghua; Wang, Dong; Zhang, Xiang; Liu, Jiahong; Fu, Xiaoran; Zhang, Kun; Ma, Jun

2017-12-01

Water-logging and flood are both serious in hilly and semi-mountainous cities of China, but the related research is rare. Lincheng Economic Development Zone (EDZ) in Hebei Province as the typical city was selected and storm water management model (SWMM) was applied for flood simulation in this study. The regional model was constructed through calibrating and verifying the runoff coefficient of different flood processes. Different designed runoff processes in five-year, ten-year and twenty-year return periods in basic scenario and in the low impact development (LID) scenario, respectively, were simulated and compared. The result shows that: LID measures have effect on peak reduction in the study area, but the effectiveness is not significant; the effectiveness of lagging peak time is poor. These simulation results provide decision support for the rational construction of LID in the study area, and provide the references for regional rain flood management.

Real-time Monitoring and Simulating of Urban Flood, a Case Study in Guangzhou

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, H.; Wang, X.; Zhang, S.; Liu, Y.

2014-12-01

In recent years urban flood frequently occurred and seriously impacted city's normal operation, particular on transportation. The increase of urban flood could be attributed to many factors, such as the increase of impervious land surface and extreme precipitation, the decrease of surface storage capacity, poor maintenance of drainage utilities, and so on. In order to provide accurate and leading prediction on urban flooding, this study acquires precise urban topographic data via air-borne Lidar system, collects detailed underground drainage pipes, and installs in-situ monitoring networks on precipitation, water level, video record and traffic speed in the downtown area of Panyu District, Guangzhou, China. Based on the above data acquired, a urban flood model with EPA SWMM5 is established to simulate the flooding and inundation processes in the study area of 20 km2. The model is driven by the real-time precipitation data and calibrated by the water level data, which are converted to flooding volume with precise topographic data. After calibration, the model could be employed to conduct sensitivity analysis for investigating primary factors of urban flooding, and to simulate the flooding processes in different scenarios, which are beneficial to assessment of flooding risk and drainage capacity. This model is expected to provide real-time forecasting in emergency management.

Spatio-Temporal Process Simulation of Dam-Break Flood Based on SPH

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Ye, F.; Ouyang, S.; Li, Z.

2018-04-01

On the basis of introducing the SPH (Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics) simulation method, the key research problems were given solutions in this paper, which ere the spatial scale and temporal scale adapting to the GIS(Geographical Information System) application, the boundary condition equations combined with the underlying surface, and the kernel function and parameters applicable to dam-break flood simulation. In this regards, a calculation method of spatio-temporal process emulation with elaborate particles for dam-break flood was proposed. Moreover the spatio-temporal process was dynamic simulated by using GIS modelling and visualization. The results show that the method gets more information, objectiveness and real situations.

Numerical simulation and experimental verification of oil recovery by macro-emulsion floods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khamharatana, F. [Chulalongkorn Univ., Bangkok (Thailand); Thomas, S.; Farouq Ali, S. M. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada)

1997-08-01

The process of emulsion flooding as an enhanced oil recovery method was described. The process involves several mechanisms that occur at the same time during displacement, therefore, simulation by emulsion flooding requires a good understanding of flow mechanics of emulsions in porous media. This paper provides a description of the process and its mathematical representation. Emulsion rheology, droplet capture and surfactant adsorption are represented mathematically and incorporated into a one-dimensional, three-phase mathematical model to account for interactions of surfactant, oil, water and the rock matrix. The simulator was validated by comparing simulation results with the results from linear core floods performed in the laboratory. Best match was achieved by a multi-phase non-Newtonian rheological model of an emulsion with interfacial tension-dependent relative permeabilities and time-dependent capture. 13 refs., 1 tab., 42 figs.

Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting based on different-resolution distributed hydrological model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, J.

2017-12-01

Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting is very important for a distributed hydrological model in the application. There are some challenges including the model's spatial resolution effect, model performance and accuracy and so on. To cope with the challenge of the model's spatial resolution effect, different model resolution including 1000m*1000m, 600m*600m, 500m*500m, 400m*400m, 200m*200m were used to build the distributed hydrological model—Liuxihe model respectively. The purpose is to find which one is the best resolution for Liuxihe model in Large-watershed flood simulation and forecasting. This study sets up a physically based distributed hydrological model for flood forecasting of the Liujiang River basin in south China. Terrain data digital elevation model (DEM), soil type and land use type are downloaded from the website freely. The model parameters are optimized by using an improved Particle Swarm Optimization(PSO) algorithm; And parameter optimization could reduce the parameter uncertainty that exists for physically deriving model parameters. The different model resolution (200m*200m—1000m*1000m ) are proposed for modeling the Liujiang River basin flood with the Liuxihe model in this study. The best model's spatial resolution effect for flood simulation and forecasting is 200m*200m.And with the model's spatial resolution reduction, the model performance and accuracy also become worse and worse. When the model resolution is 1000m*1000m, the flood simulation and forecasting result is the worst, also the river channel divided based on this resolution is differs from the actual one. To keep the model with an acceptable performance, minimum model spatial resolution is needed. The suggested threshold model spatial resolution for modeling the Liujiang River basin flood is a 500m*500m grid cell, but the model spatial resolution with a 200m*200m grid cell is recommended in this study to keep the model at a best performance.

Simulation of flooding waves in vertical churn flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tekavčič, Matej, E-mail: matej.tekavcic@ijs.si; Končar, Boštjan; Kljenak, Ivo

2016-04-01

Highlights: • Flooding waves in air–water churn flow in a vertical pipe were studied. • Simulations using two-fluid model with interface sharpening were performed. • Calculated wave amplitudes agree with existing experimental data. • Contributions of force terms in the liquid momentum balance equation are presented. - Abstract: A transient simulation of flooding waves in the churn flow of air and water in a vertical pipe is performed by the means of two-fluid modelling approach with interface sharpening. The gas and liquid phases are considered immiscible and incompressible with no mass transfer between them. Inter-phase coupling of momentum is realized via interface drag force which is based on the interface area density and the relative velocity between the phases. Surface tension effects are modelled with the Continuum Surface Model. The flow is assumed isothermal. Turbulence is modelled for each phase separately using the two-equation eddy viscosity approach. Results are compared with the reported experimental data for churn flow regime in a vertical pipe (Wang et al., 2011a). Reynolds numbers of the gas flow are in the range from 6000 to 10,000, while the liquid mass flow rate upwards ranges from 25 to 32 g/s. Prediction of critical and maximum amplitudes of the flooding waves show good agreement with experimental values. Results for wave frequencies indicate significant deviations, which can be attributed to the choice of the liquid inlet model.

Simulation of flooding waves in vertical churn flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tekavčič, Matej; Končar, Boštjan; Kljenak, Ivo

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Flooding waves in air–water churn flow in a vertical pipe were studied. • Simulations using two-fluid model with interface sharpening were performed. • Calculated wave amplitudes agree with existing experimental data. • Contributions of force terms in the liquid momentum balance equation are presented. - Abstract: A transient simulation of flooding waves in the churn flow of air and water in a vertical pipe is performed by the means of two-fluid modelling approach with interface sharpening. The gas and liquid phases are considered immiscible and incompressible with no mass transfer between them. Inter-phase coupling of momentum is realized via interface drag force which is based on the interface area density and the relative velocity between the phases. Surface tension effects are modelled with the Continuum Surface Model. The flow is assumed isothermal. Turbulence is modelled for each phase separately using the two-equation eddy viscosity approach. Results are compared with the reported experimental data for churn flow regime in a vertical pipe (Wang et al., 2011a). Reynolds numbers of the gas flow are in the range from 6000 to 10,000, while the liquid mass flow rate upwards ranges from 25 to 32 g/s. Prediction of critical and maximum amplitudes of the flooding waves show good agreement with experimental values. Results for wave frequencies indicate significant deviations, which can be attributed to the choice of the liquid inlet model.

High-resolution simulation and forecasting of Jeddah floods using WRF version 3.5

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping

2013-12-01

Modeling flash flood events in arid environments is a difficult but important task that has impacts on both water resource related issues and also emergency management and response. The challenge is often related to adequately describing the precursor intense rainfall events that cause these flood responses, as they are generally poorly simulated and forecast. Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has suffered from a number of flash floods over the last decade, following short-intense rainfall events. The research presented here focuses on examining four historic Jeddah flash floods (Nov. 25-26 2009, Dec. 29-30 2010, Jan. 14-15 2011 and Jan. 25-26 2011) and investigates the feasibility of using numerical weather prediction models to achieve a more realistic simulation of these flood-producing rainfall events. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.5) is used to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions via a high-resolution inner domain (1-km) around Jeddah. A range of different convective closure and microphysics parameterization, together with high-resolution (4-km) sea surface temperature data are employed. Through examining comparisons between the WRF model output and in-situ, radar and satellite data, the characteristics and mechanism producing the extreme rainfall events are discussed and the capacity of the WRF model to accurately forecast these rainstorms is evaluated.

High-resolution simulation and forecasting of Jeddah floods using WRF version 3.5

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping; McCabe, Matthew; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Evans, Jason; Kucera, Paul

2013-01-01

Modeling flash flood events in arid environments is a difficult but important task that has impacts on both water resource related issues and also emergency management and response. The challenge is often related to adequately describing the precursor intense rainfall events that cause these flood responses, as they are generally poorly simulated and forecast. Jeddah, the second largest city in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has suffered from a number of flash floods over the last decade, following short-intense rainfall events. The research presented here focuses on examining four historic Jeddah flash floods (Nov. 25-26 2009, Dec. 29-30 2010, Jan. 14-15 2011 and Jan. 25-26 2011) and investigates the feasibility of using numerical weather prediction models to achieve a more realistic simulation of these flood-producing rainfall events. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (version 3.5) is used to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions via a high-resolution inner domain (1-km) around Jeddah. A range of different convective closure and microphysics parameterization, together with high-resolution (4-km) sea surface temperature data are employed. Through examining comparisons between the WRF model output and in-situ, radar and satellite data, the characteristics and mechanism producing the extreme rainfall events are discussed and the capacity of the WRF model to accurately forecast these rainstorms is evaluated.

Predicting the microbial exposure risks in urban floods using GIS, building simulation, and microbial models.

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Jonathon; Biddulph, Phillip; Davies, Michael; Lai, Ka man

2013-01-01

London is expected to experience more frequent periods of intense rainfall and tidal surges, leading to an increase in the risk of flooding. Damp and flooded dwellings can support microbial growth, including mould, bacteria, and protozoa, as well as persistence of flood-borne microorganisms. The amount of time flooded dwellings remain damp will depend on the duration and height of the flood, the contents of the flood water, the drying conditions, and the building construction, leading to particular properties and property types being prone to lingering damp and human pathogen growth or persistence. The impact of flooding on buildings can be simulated using Heat Air and Moisture (HAM) models of varying complexity in order to understand how water can be absorbed and dry out of the building structure. This paper describes the simulation of the drying of building archetypes representative of the English building stock using the EnergyPlus based tool 'UCL-HAMT' in order to determine the drying rates of different abandoned structures flooded to different heights and during different seasons. The results are mapped out using GIS in order to estimate the spatial risk across London in terms of comparative flood vulnerability, as well as for specific flood events. Areas of South and East London were found to be particularly vulnerable to long-term microbial exposure following major flood events. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A predictive model of chemical flooding for enhanced oil recovery purposes: Application of least square support vector machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Ali Ahmadi

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Applying chemical flooding in petroleum reservoirs turns into interesting subject of the recent researches. Developing strategies of the aforementioned method are more robust and precise when they consider both economical point of views (net present value (NPV and technical point of views (recovery factor (RF. In the present study huge attempts are made to propose predictive model for specifying efficiency of chemical flooding in oil reservoirs. To gain this goal, the new type of support vector machine method which evolved by Suykens and Vandewalle was employed. Also, high precise chemical flooding data banks reported in previous works were employed to test and validate the proposed vector machine model. According to the mean square error (MSE, correlation coefficient and average absolute relative deviation, the suggested LSSVM model has acceptable reliability; integrity and robustness. Thus, the proposed intelligent based model can be considered as an alternative model to monitor the efficiency of chemical flooding in oil reservoir when the required experimental data are not available or accessible.

Systematic testing of flood adaptation options in urban areas through simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2016-04-01

While models can quantify flood risk in great detail, the results are subject to a number of deep uncertainties. Climate dependent drivers such as sea level and rainfall intensities, population growth and economic development all have a strong influence on future flood risk, but future developments can only be estimated coarsely. In such a situation, robust decision making frameworks call for the systematic evaluation of mitigation measures against ensembles of potential futures. We have coupled the urban development software DAnCE4Water and the 1D-2D hydraulic simulation package MIKE FLOOD to create a framework that allows for such systematic evaluations, considering mitigation measures under a variety of climate futures and urban development scenarios. A wide spectrum of mitigation measures can be considered in this setup, ranging from structural measures such as modifications of the sewer network over local retention of rainwater and the modification of surface flow paths to policy measures such as restrictions on urban development in flood prone areas or master plans that encourage compact development. The setup was tested in a 300 ha residential catchment in Melbourne, Australia. The results clearly demonstrate the importance of considering a range of potential futures in the planning process. For example, local rainwater retention measures strongly reduce flood risk a scenario with moderate increase of rain intensities and moderate urban growth, but their performance strongly varies, yielding very little improvement in situations with pronounced climate change. The systematic testing of adaptation measures further allows for the identification of so-called adaptation tipping points, i.e. levels for the drivers of flood risk where the desired level of flood risk is exceeded despite the implementation of (a combination of) mitigation measures. Assuming a range of development rates for the drivers of flood risk, such tipping points can be translated into

Combining hydraulic model, hydrogeomorphological observations and chemical analyses of surface waters to improve knowledge on karst flash floods genesis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Raynaud

2015-06-01

Full Text Available During a flood event over a karst watershed, the connections between surface and ground waters appear to be complex ones. The karst may attenuate surface floods by absorbing water or contribute to the surface flood by direct contribution of karst waters in the rivers (perennial and overflowing springs and by diffuse resurgence along the hillslopes. If it is possible to monitor each known outlet of a karst system, the diffuse contribution is yet difficult to assess. Furthermore, all these connections vary over time according to several factors such as the water content of the soil and underground, the rainfall characteristics, the runoff pathways. Therefore, the contribution of each compartment is generally difficult to assess, and flood dynamics are not fully understood. To face these misunderstandings and difficulties, we analysed surface waters during six recent flood events in the Lirou watershed (a karst tributary of the Lez, in South of France. Because of the specific chemical signature of karst waters, chemical analyses can supply information about water pathways and flood dynamics. Then, we used the dilution law to combine chemical results, flow data and field observations to assess the dynamics of the karst component of the flood. To end, we discussed the surface or karst origin of the waters responsible for the apparent runoff coefficient rise during flash karst flood.

Global SWOT Data Assimilation of River Hydrodynamic Model; the Twin Simulation Test of CaMa-Flood

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeshima, D.; Yamazaki, D.; Kanae, S.

2016-12-01

CaMa-Flood is a global scale model for simulating hydrodynamics in large scale rivers. It can simulate river hydrodynamics such as river discharge, flooded area, water depth and so on by inputting water runoff derived from land surface model. Recently many improvements at parameters or terrestrial data are under process to enhance the reproducibility of true natural phenomena. However, there are still some errors between nature and simulated result due to uncertainties in each model. SWOT (Surface water and Ocean Topography) is a satellite, which is going to be launched in 2021, can measure open water surface elevation. SWOT observed data can be used to calibrate hydrodynamics model at river flow forecasting and is expected to improve model's accuracy. Combining observation data into model to calibrate is called data assimilation. In this research, we developed data-assimilated river flow simulation system in global scale, using CaMa-Flood as river hydrodynamics model and simulated SWOT as observation data. Generally at data assimilation, calibrating "model value" with "observation value" makes "assimilated value". However, the observed data of SWOT satellite will not be available until its launch in 2021. Instead, we simulated the SWOT observed data using CaMa-Flood. Putting "pure input" into CaMa-Flood produce "true water storage". Extracting actual daily swath of SWOT from "true water storage" made simulated observation. For "model value", we made "disturbed water storage" by putting "noise disturbed input" to CaMa-Flood. Since both "model value" and "observation value" are made by same model, we named this twin simulation. At twin simulation, simulated observation of "true water storage" is combined with "disturbed water storage" to make "assimilated value". As the data assimilation method, we used ensemble Kalman filter. If "assimilated value" is closer to "true water storage" than "disturbed water storage", the data assimilation can be marked effective. Also

Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. M. R. Mateo

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Global-scale river models (GRMs are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

Impacts of spatial resolution and representation of flow connectivity on large-scale simulation of floods

Science.gov (United States)

Mateo, Cherry May R.; Yamazaki, Dai; Kim, Hyungjun; Champathong, Adisorn; Vaze, Jai; Oki, Taikan

2017-10-01

Global-scale river models (GRMs) are core tools for providing consistent estimates of global flood hazard, especially in data-scarce regions. Due to former limitations in computational power and input datasets, most GRMs have been developed to use simplified representations of flow physics and run at coarse spatial resolutions. With increasing computational power and improved datasets, the application of GRMs to finer resolutions is becoming a reality. To support development in this direction, the suitability of GRMs for application to finer resolutions needs to be assessed. This study investigates the impacts of spatial resolution and flow connectivity representation on the predictive capability of a GRM, CaMa-Flood, in simulating the 2011 extreme flood in Thailand. Analyses show that when single downstream connectivity (SDC) is assumed, simulation results deteriorate with finer spatial resolution; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients decreased by more than 50 % between simulation results at 10 km resolution and 1 km resolution. When multiple downstream connectivity (MDC) is represented, simulation results slightly improve with finer spatial resolution. The SDC simulations result in excessive backflows on very flat floodplains due to the restrictive flow directions at finer resolutions. MDC channels attenuated these effects by maintaining flow connectivity and flow capacity between floodplains in varying spatial resolutions. While a regional-scale flood was chosen as a test case, these findings should be universal and may have significant impacts on large- to global-scale simulations, especially in regions where mega deltas exist.These results demonstrate that a GRM can be used for higher resolution simulations of large-scale floods, provided that MDC in rivers and floodplains is adequately represented in the model structure.

Multi-catchment rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Paquet, Emmanuel

2017-04-01

The SCHADEX method (Paquet et al., 2013) is a reference method in France for the estimation of extreme flood for dam design. The method is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process: hundreds of different rainy events, randomly drawn up to extreme values, are simulated independently in the hydrological conditions of each day when a rainy event has been actually observed. This allows generating an exhaustive set of crossings between precipitation and soil saturation hazards, and to build a complete distribution of flood discharges up to extreme quantiles. The hydrological model used within SCHADEX, the MORDOR model (Garçon, 1996), is a lumped model, which implies that hydrological processes, e.g. rainfall and soil saturation, are supposed to be homogeneous throughout the catchment. Snow processes are nevertheless represented in relation with altitude. This hypothesis of homogeneity is questionable especially as the size of the catchment increases, or in areas of highly contrasted climatology (like mountainous areas). Conversely, modeling the catchment with a fully distributed approach would cause different problems, in particular distributing the rainfall-runoff model parameters trough space, and within the SCHADEX stochastic framework, generating extreme rain fields with credible spatio-temporal features. An intermediate solution is presented here. It provides a better representation of the hydro-climatic diversity of the studied catchment (especially regarding flood processes) while keeping the SCHADEX simulation framework. It consists in dividing the catchment in several, more homogeneous sub-catchments. Rainfall-runoff models are parameterized individually for each of them, using local discharge data if available. A first SCHADEX simulation is done at the global scale, which allows assigning a probability to each simulated event, mainly based on the global areal rainfall drawn for the event (see Paquet el al., 2013 for details). Then the

Virtual reality in urban water management: communicating urban flooding with particle-based CFD simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Winkler, Daniel; Zischg, Jonatan; Rauch, Wolfgang

2018-01-01

For communicating urban flood risk to authorities and the public, a realistic three-dimensional visual display is frequently more suitable than detailed flood maps. Virtual reality could also serve to plan short-term flooding interventions. We introduce here an alternative approach for simulating three-dimensional flooding dynamics in large- and small-scale urban scenes by reaching out to computer graphics. This approach, denoted 'particle in cell', is a particle-based CFD method that is used to predict physically plausible results instead of accurate flow dynamics. We exemplify the approach for the real flooding event in July 2016 in Innsbruck.

Assessment on the pedestrian risk during floods based on numerical simulation - A case study in Jinan City

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, T.; Xu, Z.; Hong, S.

2017-12-01

Flood disasters frequently attack the urban area in Jinan City during past years, and the city is faced with severe road flooding which greatly threaten pedestrians' safety. Therefore, it is of great significance to investigate the pedestrian risk during floods under specific topographic condition. In this study, a model coupled hydrological and hydrodynamic processes is developed in the study area to simulate the flood routing process on the road for the "7.18" rainstorm and validated with post-disaster damage survey information. The risk of pedestrian is estimated with a flood risk assessment model. The result shows that the coupled model performs well in the rainstorm flood process. On the basis of the simulation result, the areas with extreme risk, medium risk, and mild risk are identified, respectively. Regions with high risk are generally located near the mountain front area with steep slopes. This study will provide scientific support for the flood control and disaster reduction in Jinan City.

Flood Zoning Simulation by HEC-RAS Model (Case Study: Johor River-Kota Tinggi Region)

OpenAIRE

ShahiriParsa, Ahmad; Heydari, Mohammad; Sadeghian, Mohammad Sadegh; Moharrampour, Mahdi

2015-01-01

Flooding of rivers has caused many human and financial losses. Hence, studies and research on the nature of the river is inevitable.However, the behavior of rivers hasmany complexities and in this respect, computer models are efficient tools in order to study and simulate the behavior of rivers with the least possible cost. In this paper, one-dimensional model HEC-RAS was used to simulate the flood zoning in the Kota Tinggi district in Johor state. Implementation processes of the zoning on ca...

Numerical simulation on the southern flood and northern drought in summer 2014 over Eastern China

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Lianlian; He, Shengping; Li, Fei; Ma, Jiehua; Wang, Huijun

2017-12-01

In summer 2014, Eastern China suffered a typical "southern flood and northern drought" anomalous climate. Observational analyses indicated that the anomalous vertical motion, East Asian subtropical westerly jet stream, and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) played important roles in the formation of such precipitation anomaly. Furthermore, using the climate model (IAP-AGCM-4.1) perturbed by simultaneous observed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in global scale and four different regions (North Pacific, Indian Ocean, North Atlantic, and Equatorial Pacific), this study investigated the potential contribution of ocean to such "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China in summer 2014. The simulations forced by global-scale SSTAs or North Pacific SSTAs displayed the most similarity to the observed "southern flood and northern drought" over Eastern China. It was revealed that the global-scale and North Pacific SSTAs influenced the rainfall over Eastern China via modulating the EASM. The related simulations successfully reproduced the associated atmospheric circulation anomalies. The experiment driven by Indian Ocean SSTAs could also reproduce the similar precipitation anomaly pattern and suggested that the Indian Ocean exerted pronounced influence on the North Pacific Subtropical High. Additionally, the simulations forced by SSTAs in the North Atlantic and Equatorial Pacific successfully reproduced the northern drought but failed to capture the southern flood. The simulations suggested that precipitation anomaly over Eastern China in summer 2014 was a comprehensive effect of global SSTAs and the dominant contribution to the "southern flood and northern drought" pattern came from the North Pacific and Indian Ocean.

Next Generation Surfactants for Improved Chemical Flooding Technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laura Wesson; Prapas Lohateeraparp; Jeffrey Harwell; Bor-Jier Shiau

2012-05-31

The principle objective of this project was to characterize and test current and next generation high performance surfactants for improved chemical flooding technology, focused on reservoirs in the Pennsylvanian-aged (Penn) sands. In order to meet this objective the characteristic curvatures (Cc) of twenty-eight anionic surfactants selected for evaluation for use in chemical flooding formulations were determined. The Cc values ranged from -6.90 to 2.55 with the majority having negative values. Crude oil samples from nine Penn sand reservoirs were analyzed for several properties pertinent to surfactant formulation for EOR application. These properties included equivalent alkane carbon numbers, total acid numbers, and viscosity. The brine samples from these same reservoirs were analyzed for several cations and for total dissolved solids. Surfactant formulations were successfully developed for eight reservoirs by the end of the project period. These formulations were comprised of a tertiary mixture of anionic surfactants. The identities of these surfactants are considered proprietary, but suffice to say the surfactants in each mixture were comprised of varying chemical structures. In addition to the successful development of surfactant formulations for EOR, there were also two successful single-well field tests conducted. There are many aspects that must be considered in the development and implementation of effective surfactant formulations. Taking into account these other aspects, there were four additional studies conducted during this project. These studies focused on the effect of the stability of surfactant formulations in the presence of polymers with an associated examination of polymer rheology, the effect of the presence of iron complexes in the brine on surfactant stability, the potential use of sacrificial agents in order to minimize the loss of surfactant to adsorption, and the effect of electrolytes on surfactant adsorption. In these last four studies

Development of cost-effective surfactant flooding technology. Final report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pope, G.A.; Sepehrnoori, K.

1996-11-01

Task 1 of this research was the development of a high-resolution, fully implicit, finite-difference, multiphase, multicomponent, compositional simulator for chemical flooding. The major physical phenomena modeled in this simulator are dispersion, heterogeneous permeability and porosity, adsorption, interfacial tension, relative permeability and capillary desaturation, compositional phase viscosity, compositional phase density and gravity effects, capillary pressure, and aqueous-oleic-microemulsion phase behavior. Polymer and its non-Newtonian rheology properties include shear-thinning viscosity, permeability reduction, inaccessible pore volume, and adsorption. Options of constant or variable space grids and time steps, constant-pressure or constant-rate well conditions, horizontal and vertical wells, and multiple slug injections are also available in the simulator. The solution scheme used in this simulator is fully implicit. The pressure equation and the mass-conservation equations are solved simultaneously for the aqueous-phase pressure and the total concentrations of each component. A third-order-in-space, second-order-in-time finite-difference method and a new total-variation-diminishing (TVD) third-order flux limiter are used that greatly reduce numerical dispersion effects. Task 2 was the optimization of surfactant flooding. The code UTCHEM was used to simulate surfactant polymer flooding.

Why are decisions in flood disaster management so poorly supported by information from flood models?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leskens, Anne; Brugnach, Marcela Fabiana; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert; Schuurmans, W.

2014-01-01

Flood simulation models can provide practitioners of Flood Disaster Management with sophisticated estimates of floods. Despite the advantages that flood simulation modeling may provide, experiences have proven that these models are of limited use. Until now, this problem has mainly been investigated

Testing the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) for flood forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Batelis, Stamatios-Christos; Rosolem, Rafael; Han, Dawei; Rahman, Mostaquimur

2017-04-01

Land Surface Models (LSM) are based on physics principles and simulate the exchanges of energy, water and biogeochemical cycles between the land surface and lower atmosphere. Such models are typically applied for climate studies or effects of land use changes but as the resolution of LSMs and supporting observations are continuously increasing, its representation of hydrological processes need to be addressed adequately. For example, changes in climate and land use can alter the hydrology of a region, for instance, by altering its flooding regime. LSMs can be a powerful tool because of their ability to spatially represent a region with much finer resolution. However, despite such advantages, its performance has not been extensively assessed for flood forecasting simply because its representation of typical hydrological processes, such as overland flow and river routing, are still either ignored or roughly represented. In this study, we initially test the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) as a flood forecast tool focusing on its river routing scheme. In particular, JULES river routing parameterization is based on the Rapid Flow Model (RFM) which relies on six prescribed parameters (two surface and two subsurface wave celerities, and two return flow fractions). Although this routing scheme is simple, the prescription of its six default parameters is still too generalized. Our aim is to understand the importance of each RFM parameter in a series of JULES simulations at a number of catchments in the UK for the 2006-2015 period. This is carried out, for instance, by making a number of assumptions of parameter behaviour (e.g., spatially uniform versus varying and/or temporally constant or time-varying parameters within each catchment). Hourly rainfall radar in combination with the CHESS (Climate, Hydrological and Ecological research Support System) meteorological daily data both at 1 km2 resolution are used. The evaluation of the model is based on hourly runoff

Research on Multi Hydrological Models Applicability and Modelling Data Uncertainty Analysis for Flash Flood Simulation in Hilly Area

Science.gov (United States)

Ye, L.; Wu, J.; Wang, L.; Song, T.; Ji, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding in small-scale watershed in hilly area is characterized by short time periods and rapid rise and recession due to the complex underlying surfaces, various climate type and strong effect of human activities. It is almost impossible for a single hydrological model to describe the variation of flooding in both time and space accurately for all the catchments in hilly area because the hydrological characteristics can vary significantly among different catchments. In this study, we compare the performance of 5 hydrological models with varying degrees of complexity for simulation of flash flood for 14 small-scale watershed in China in order to find the relationship between the applicability of the hydrological models and the catchments characteristics. Meanwhile, given the fact that the hydrological data is sparse in hilly area, the effect of precipitation data, DEM resolution and their interference on the uncertainty of flood simulation is also illustrated. In general, the results showed that the distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS in this study) performed better than the lumped hydrological models. Xinajiang and API models had good simulation for the humid catchments when long-term and continuous rainfall data is provided. Dahuofang model can simulate the flood peak well while the runoff generation module is relatively poor. In addition, the effect of diverse modelling data on the simulations is not simply superposed, and there is a complex interaction effect among different modelling data. Overall, both the catchment hydrological characteristics and modelling data situation should be taken into consideration in order to choose the suitable hydrological model for flood simulation for small-scale catchment in hilly area.

Methane hydrate dissociation using inverted five-spot water flooding method in cubic hydrate simulator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Gang; Li, Xiao-Sen; Li, Bo; Wang, Yi

2014-01-01

The combination forms of the hydrate dissociation methods in different well systems are divided into 6 main patterns. Dissociation processes of methane hydrate in porous media using the inverted five-spot water flooding method (Pattern 4) are investigated by the experimental observation and numerical simulation. In situ methane hydrate is synthesized in the Cubic Hydrate Simulator (CHS), a 5.832-L cubic reactor. A center vertical well is used as the hot water injection well, while the four vertical wells at the corner are the gas and water production wells. The gas production begins simultaneously with the hot water injection, while after approximately 20 min of compression, the water begins to be produced. One of the common characteristics of the inverted five-spot water flooding method is that both the gas and water production rates decrease with the reduction of the hydrate dissociation rate. The evaluation of the energy efficiency ratio might indicate the inverted five-spot water flooding as a promising gas producing method from the hydrate reservoir. - Highlights: • A three-dimensional 5.8-L cubic pressure vessel is developed. • Gas production of hydrate using inverted five-spot flooding method is studied. • Water/gas production rate and energy efficiency ratio are evaluated. • Temperature distributions of numerical simulation and experiment agree well. • Hydrate dissociation process is a moving boundary problem in this study

Numerical simulation of the floods in Villahermosa Mexico using the IBER code

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.C. González-Aguirre

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Floods are a problem that may occur in many parts of the world, but in certain places it happens more frequently, for example in Villahermosa, Mexico, which can be confirmed with the floods of 2000, 2007, 2009 and 2010. In this work the IBER code is used (freely available at http://www.iberaula.es to recreate the scenarios occurred in October 2007, and the numerical results are compared with data provided/collected by CONAGUA in the Hydrometeorological station Gaviotas. The scenarios of the 1st October, 30th October and 31st October were simulated. A steady state was obtained in the simulation of the 1st October, this state was used as initial condition for the simulation of the 30th October, in which are reproduced the conditions of the 31st October. In addition, a sensibility analysis was carried out for the wetting drying parameter and the Courant number.

Development of a global river-coastal coupling model and its application to flood simulation in Asian mega-delta regions

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip; Verlaan, Martin; Winsemius, Hessel; Kanae, Shinjiro

2017-04-01

The world's mega-delta regions and estuaries are susceptible to various water-related disasters, such as river flooding and storm surge. Moreover, simultaneous occurrence of them would be more devastating than a situation where they occur in isolation. Therefore, it is important to provide information about compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, both their statistical dependency as well as their combined resulting flooding in delta regions. Here we report on a first attempt to address this issue globally by developing a method to couple a global river model (CaMa-Flood) and a global tide and surge reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. A state-of-the-art global river routing model, CaMa-Flood, was modified to represent varying sea levels due to tides and storm surges as downstream boundary condition, and the GTSR dataset was post-processed to serve as inputs to the CaMa-Flood river routing simulation and a long-term simulation was performed to incorporate the temporal dependency between coastal tide and surge on the one hand, and discharge on the other. The coupled model was validated against observations, showing better simulation results of water levels in deltaic regions than simulation without GTSR. For example in the Ganges Delta, correlation coefficients were increased by 0.06, and root mean square errors were reduced by 0.22 m. Global coupling simulations revealed that storm surges affected river water levels in coastal regions worldwide, especially in low-lying flat areas with increases in water level larger than 0.5 m. By employing enhanced storm surge simulation with tropical storm tracks, we also applied the model to examine impacts of past hurricane and cyclone storm events on river flood inundation.

Chemical Transformation Simulator

Science.gov (United States)

The Chemical Transformation Simulator (CTS) is a web-based, high-throughput screening tool that automates the calculation and collection of physicochemical properties for an organic chemical of interest and its predicted products resulting from transformations in environmental sy...

Outburst Flood Simulation Model for Optimizing the Solo River Floods Emergency Response Activities

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuli Priyana

2016-08-01

Full Text Available This study aims to develop flood inundation based on several flood level. The results of this study are: (a land use in the study area is divided into (1 urban area (the Business Area which includes regional administrative center, shopping area, and office area, (2 residential areas (single home region, the region multi- unit house (residence, settlement areas and apartments, (3 industrial estate (industrial estates are less dense and dense industrial area, (4 the surface area covered with vegetation (forest - thicket, meadow area, and the area of land productive rice fields and fields, (5 the area of open land and vacant land that is intended (the city park , cemetery and park area, and (6 transportation area and the pavement surface area (area train station and bus terminal region, (b the preparation of spatial database in this study in the form of data or data vector altitude of Digital Elevation Model (DEM. District of Jebres there are 56 points of elevation and District of Pasar Kliwon there are 48 points of elevation. Elevation of the study area ranged from 88,9 mpdal up to 127.65 mdpal and (c the higher the flood inundation scenarios impact on land use in the study area are also getting bigger. Most obvious impact under scenario 2 m area of 296 601 m , while the smallest impact under scenario 1 m with an area of 77 693 m 2 2 impact. Extensive simulation results based on the total impact amounts to 544 756 m.

Coupled large-eddy simulation and morphodynamics of a large-scale river under extreme flood conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Khosronejad, Ali; Sotiropoulos, Fotis; Stony Brook University Team

2016-11-01

We present a coupled flow and morphodynamic simulations of extreme flooding in 3 km long and 300 m wide reach of the Mississippi River in Minnesota, which includes three islands and hydraulic structures. We employ the large-eddy simulation (LES) and bed-morphodynamic modules of the VFS-Geophysics model to investigate the flow and bed evolution of the river during a 500 year flood. The coupling of the two modules is carried out via a fluid-structure interaction approach using a nested domain approach to enhance the resolution of bridge scour predictions. The geometrical data of the river, islands and structures are obtained from LiDAR, sub-aqueous sonar and in-situ surveying to construct a digital map of the river bathymetry. Our simulation results for the bed evolution of the river reveal complex sediment dynamics near the hydraulic structures. The numerically captured scour depth near some of the structures reach a maximum of about 10 m. The data-driven simulation strategy we present in this work exemplifies a practical simulation-based-engineering-approach to investigate the resilience of infrastructures to extreme flood events in intricate field-scale riverine systems. This work was funded by a Grant from Minnesota Dept. of Transportation.

Applying a coupled hydrometeorological simulation system to flash flood forecasting over the Korean Peninsula

Science.gov (United States)

Ryu, Young; Lim, Yoon-Jin; Ji, Hee-Sook; Park, Hyun-Hee; Chang, Eun-Chul; Kim, Baek-Jo

2017-11-01

In flash flood forecasting, it is necessary to consider not only traditional meteorological variables such as precipitation, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture, but also hydrological components such as streamflow. To address this challenge, the application of high resolution coupled atmospheric-hydrological models is emerging as a promising alternative. This study demonstrates the feasibility of linking a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model (WRF/WRFHydro) with 150-m horizontal grid spacing for flash flood forecasting in Korea. The study area is the Namgang Dam basin in Southern Korea, a mountainous area located downstream of Jiri Mountain (1915 m in height). Under flash flood conditions, the simulated precipitation over the entire basin is comparable to the domain-averaged precipitation, but discharge data from WRF-Hydro shows some differences in the total available water and the temporal distribution of streamflow (given by the timing of the streamflow peak following precipitation), compared to observations. On the basis of sensitivity tests, the parameters controlling the infiltration of excess precipitation and channel roughness depending on stream order are refined and their influence on temporal distribution of streamflow is addressed with intent to apply WRF-Hydro to flash flood forecasting in the Namgang Dam basin. The simulation results from the WRF-Hydro model with optimized parameters demonstrate the potential utility of a coupled atmospheric-hydrological model for forecasting heavy rain-induced flash flooding over the Korean Peninsula.

Calibration of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model and flood simulation using data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Piacentini, A.; Ricci, S. M.; Thual, O.; Coustau, M.; Marchandise, A.

2010-12-01

velocity travel before the flood peak. These optimal values are used for a new simulation of the event in forecast mode (under the assumption of perfect rain-fall). On both catchments, it was shown over a significant number of flood events, that the data assimilation procedure improves the flood peak forecast. The improvement is globally more important for the Gardon d'Anduze catchment where the flood events are stronger. The peak can be forecasted up to 36 hours head of time assimilating very few observations (up to 4) during the rise of the water level. For multiple peaks events, the assimilation of the observations from the first peak leads to a significant improvement of the second peak simulation. It was also shown that the flood rise is often faster in reality than it is represented by the model. In this case and when the flood peak is under estimated in the simulation, the use of the first observations can be misleading for the data assimilation algorithm. The careful estimation of the observation and background error variances enabled the satisfying use of the data assimilation in these complex cases even though it does not allow the model error correction.

Development of high-resolution multi-scale modelling system for simulation of coastal-fluvial urban flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Comer, Joanne; Indiana Olbert, Agnieszka; Nash, Stephen; Hartnett, Michael

2017-02-01

Urban developments in coastal zones are often exposed to natural hazards such as flooding. In this research, a state-of-the-art, multi-scale nested flood (MSN_Flood) model is applied to simulate complex coastal-fluvial urban flooding due to combined effects of tides, surges and river discharges. Cork city on Ireland's southwest coast is a study case. The flood modelling system comprises a cascade of four dynamically linked models that resolve the hydrodynamics of Cork Harbour and/or its sub-region at four scales: 90, 30, 6 and 2 m. Results demonstrate that the internalization of the nested boundary through the use of ghost cells combined with a tailored adaptive interpolation technique creates a highly dynamic moving boundary that permits flooding and drying of the nested boundary. This novel feature of MSN_Flood provides a high degree of choice regarding the location of the boundaries to the nested domain and therefore flexibility in model application. The nested MSN_Flood model through dynamic downscaling facilitates significant improvements in accuracy of model output without incurring the computational expense of high spatial resolution over the entire model domain. The urban flood model provides full characteristics of water levels and flow regimes necessary for flood hazard identification and flood risk assessment.

Quasi-continuous stochastic simulation framework for flood modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Moustakis, Yiannis; Kossieris, Panagiotis; Tsoukalas, Ioannis; Efstratiadis, Andreas

2017-04-01

Typically, flood modelling in the context of everyday engineering practices is addressed through event-based deterministic tools, e.g., the well-known SCS-CN method. A major shortcoming of such approaches is the ignorance of uncertainty, which is associated with the variability of soil moisture conditions and the variability of rainfall during the storm event.In event-based modeling, the sole expression of uncertainty is the return period of the design storm, which is assumed to represent the acceptable risk of all output quantities (flood volume, peak discharge, etc.). On the other hand, the varying antecedent soil moisture conditions across the basin are represented by means of scenarios (e.g., the three AMC types by SCS),while the temporal distribution of rainfall is represented through standard deterministic patterns (e.g., the alternative blocks method). In order to address these major inconsistencies,simultaneously preserving the simplicity and parsimony of the SCS-CN method, we have developed a quasi-continuous stochastic simulation approach, comprising the following steps: (1) generation of synthetic daily rainfall time series; (2) update of potential maximum soil moisture retention, on the basis of accumulated five-day rainfall; (3) estimation of daily runoff through the SCS-CN formula, using as inputs the daily rainfall and the updated value of soil moisture retention;(4) selection of extreme events and application of the standard SCS-CN procedure for each specific event, on the basis of synthetic rainfall.This scheme requires the use of two stochastic modelling components, namely the CastaliaR model, for the generation of synthetic daily data, and the HyetosMinute model, for the disaggregation of daily rainfall to finer temporal scales. Outcomes of this approach are a large number of synthetic flood events, allowing for expressing the design variables in statistical terms and thus properly evaluating the flood risk.

Simulating Catchment Scale Afforestation for Mitigating Flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Barnes, M. S.; Bathurst, J. C.; Quinn, P. F.; Birkinshaw, S.

2016-12-01

After the 2013-14, and the more recent 2015-16, winter floods in the UK there were calls to 'forest the uplands' as a solution to reducing flood risk across the nation. However, the role of forests as a natural flood management practice remains highly controversial, due to a distinct lack of robust evidence into its effectiveness in reducing flood risk during extreme events. This project aims to improve the understanding of the impacts of upland afforestation on flood risk at the sub-catchment and full catchment scales. This will be achieved through an integrated fieldwork and modelling approach, with the use of a series of process based hydrological models to scale up and examine the effects forestry can have on flooding. Furthermore, there is a need to analyse the extent to which land management practices, catchment system engineering and the installation of runoff attenuation features (RAFs), such as engineered log jams, in headwater catchments can attenuate flood-wave movement, and potentially reduce downstream flood risk. Additionally, the proportion of a catchment or riparian reach that would need to be forested in order to achieve a significant impact on reducing downstream flooding will be defined. The consequential impacts of a corresponding reduction in agriculturally productive farmland and the potential decline of water resource availability will also be considered in order to safeguard the UK's food security and satisfy the global demand on water resources.

BIOCHEM-ORCHESTRA: A tool for evaluating chemical speciation and ecotoxicological impacts of heavy metals on river flood plain systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vink, J.P.M.; Meeussen, J.C.L.

2007-01-01

The chemical speciation model BIOCHEM was extended with ecotoxicological transfer functions for uptake of metals (As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) by plants and soil invertebrates. It was coupled to the object-oriented framework ORCHESTRA to achieve a flexible and dynamic decision support system (DSS) to analyse natural or anthropogenic changes that occur in river systems. The DSS uses the chemical characteristics of soils and sediments as input, and calculates speciation and subsequent uptake by biota at various scenarios. Biotic transfer functions were field-validated, and actual hydrological conditions were derived from long-term monitoring data. The DSS was tested for several scenarios that occur in the Meuse catchment areas, such as flooding and sedimentation of riverine sediments on flood plains. Risks are expressed in terms of changes in chemical mobility, and uptake by flood plain key species (flora and fauna). - A diagnostic risk-assessment tool for heavy metals, based on biotic and abiotic interactions, compares risks under different environmental scenarios

Mapping flood hazards under uncertainty through probabilistic flood inundation maps

Science.gov (United States)

Stephens, T.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Miller, A. J.; Lee, G.

2017-12-01

Changing precipitation, rapid urbanization, and population growth interact to create unprecedented challenges for flood mitigation and management. Standard methods for estimating risk from flood inundation maps generally involve simulations of floodplain hydraulics for an established regulatory discharge of specified frequency. Hydraulic model results are then geospatially mapped and depicted as a discrete boundary of flood extents and a binary representation of the probability of inundation (in or out) that is assumed constant over a project's lifetime. Consequently, existing methods utilized to define flood hazards and assess risk management are hindered by deterministic approaches that assume stationarity in a nonstationary world, failing to account for spatio-temporal variability of climate and land use as they translate to hydraulic models. This presentation outlines novel techniques for portraying flood hazards and the results of multiple flood inundation maps spanning hydroclimatic regions. Flood inundation maps generated through modeling of floodplain hydraulics are probabilistic reflecting uncertainty quantified through Monte-Carlo analyses of model inputs and parameters under current and future scenarios. The likelihood of inundation and range of variability in flood extents resulting from Monte-Carlo simulations are then compared with deterministic evaluations of flood hazards from current regulatory flood hazard maps. By facilitating alternative approaches of portraying flood hazards, the novel techniques described in this presentation can contribute to a shifting paradigm in flood management that acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in model estimates and the nonstationary behavior of land use and climate.

Artificial Neural Network Model for Alkali-Surfactant-Polymer Flooding in Viscous Oil Reservoirs: Generation and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Si Le Van

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Chemical flooding has been widely utilized to recover a large portion of the oil remaining in light and viscous oil reservoirs after the primary and secondary production processes. As core-flood tests and reservoir simulations take time to accurately estimate the recovery performances as well as analyzing the feasibility of an injection project, it is necessary to find a powerful tool to quickly predict the results with a level of acceptable accuracy. An approach involving the use of an artificial neural network to generate a representative model for estimating the alkali-surfactant-polymer flooding performance and evaluating the economic feasibility of viscous oil reservoirs from simulation is proposed in this study. A typical chemical flooding project was referenced for this numerical study. A number of simulations have been made for training on the basis of a base case from the design of 13 parameters. After training, the network scheme generated from a ratio data set of 50%-20%-30% corresponding to the number of samples used for training-validation-testing was selected for estimation with the total coefficient of determination of 0.986 and a root mean square error of 1.63%. In terms of model application, the chemical concentration and injection strategy were optimized to maximize the net present value (NPV of the project at a specific oil price from the just created ANN model. To evaluate the feasibility of the project comprehensively in terms of market variations, a range of oil prices from 30 $/bbl to 60 $/bbl referenced from a real market situation was considered in conjunction with its probability following a statistical distribution on the NPV computation. Feasibility analysis of the optimal chemical injection scheme revealed a variation of profit from 0.42 $MM to 1.0 $MM, corresponding to the changes in oil price. In particular, at the highest possible oil prices, the project can earn approximately 0.61 $MM to 0.87 $MM for a quarter

WRF model for precipitation simulation and its application in real-time flood forecasting in the Jinshajiang River Basin, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Jianzhong; Zhang, Hairong; Zhang, Jianyun; Zeng, Xiaofan; Ye, Lei; Liu, Yi; Tayyab, Muhammad; Chen, Yufan

2017-07-01

An accurate flood forecasting with long lead time can be of great value for flood prevention and utilization. This paper develops a one-way coupled hydro-meteorological modeling system consisting of the mesoscale numerical weather model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the Chinese Xinanjiang hydrological model to extend flood forecasting lead time in the Jinshajiang River Basin, which is the largest hydropower base in China. Focusing on four typical precipitation events includes: first, the combinations and mode structures of parameterization schemes of WRF suitable for simulating precipitation in the Jinshajiang River Basin were investigated. Then, the Xinanjiang model was established after calibration and validation to make up the hydro-meteorological system. It was found that the selection of the cloud microphysics scheme and boundary layer scheme has a great impact on precipitation simulation, and only a proper combination of the two schemes could yield accurate simulation effects in the Jinshajiang River Basin and the hydro-meteorological system can provide instructive flood forecasts with long lead time. On the whole, the one-way coupled hydro-meteorological model could be used for precipitation simulation and flood prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin because of its relatively high precision and long lead time.

Interactive use of simulation models for collaborative knowledge construction: the case of flood policy decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leskens, Anne

2015-01-01

There is an increasing use of interactive flood simulation models in work sessions with practitioners, which is supposed to be more effective than feeding static model results from conventional simulation models into the decision-making process. These interactive simulation models rely on fast and

An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

2016-12-01

The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

Emotional engagement with participatory simulations as a tool for learning and decision-support for coupled human-natural systems: Flood hazards and urban development

Science.gov (United States)

Gilligan, J. M.; Corey, B.; Camp, J. V.; John, N. J.; Sengupta, P.

2015-12-01

The complex interactions between land use and natural hazards pose serious challenges in education, research, and public policy. Where complex nonlinear interactions produce unintuitive results, interactive computer simulations can be useful tools for education and decision support. Emotions play important roles in cognition and learning, especially where risks are concerned. Interactive simulations have the potential to harness emotional engagement to enhance learning and understanding of risks in coupled human-natural systems. We developed a participatory agent-based simulation of cities at risk of river flooding. Participants play the role of managers of neighboring cities along a flood-prone river and make choices about building flood walls to protect their inhabitants. Simulated agents participate in dynamic real estate markets in which demand for property, and thus values and decisions to build, respond to experience with flooding over time. By reducing high-frequency low-magnitude flooding, flood walls may stimulate development, thus increasing tax revenues but also increasing vulnerability to uncommon floods that overtop the walls. Flood waves are launched stochastically and propagate downstream. Flood walls that restrict overbank flow at one city can increase the amplitude of a flood wave at neighboring cities, both up and downstream. We conducted a pilot experiment with a group of three pre-service teachers. The subjects successfully learned key concepts of risk tradeoffs and unintended consequences that can accompany flood-control measures. We also observed strong emotional responses, including hope, fear, and sense of loss. This emotional engagement with a model of coupled human-natural systems was very different from previous experiments on participatory simulations of purely natural systems for physics pedagogy. We conducted a second session in which the participants were expert engineers. We will present the results of these experiments and the

Flooding Simulation of Extreme Event on Barnegat Bay by High-Resolution Two Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Y.; Ramaswamy, V.; Saleh, F.

2017-12-01

Barnegat Bay located on the east coast of New Jersey, United States and is separated from the Atlantic Ocean by the narrow Barnegat Peninsula which acts as a barrier island. The bay is fed by several rivers which empty through small estuaries along the inner shore. In terms of vulnerability from flooding, the Barnegat Peninsula is under the influence of both coastal storm surge and riverine flooding. Barnegat Bay was hit by Hurricane Sandy causing flood damages with extensive cross-island flow at many streets perpendicular to the shoreline. The objective of this work is to identify and quantify the sources of flooding using a two dimensional inland hydrodynamic model. The hydrodynamic model was forced by three observed coastal boundary conditions, and one hydrologic boundary condition from United States Geological Survey (USGS). The model reliability was evaluated with both FEMA spatial flooding extend and USGS High water marks. Simulated flooding extent showed good agreement with the reanalysis spatial inundation extents. Results offered important perspectives on the flow of the water into the bay, the velocity and the depth of the inundated areas. Using such information can enable emergency managers and decision makers identify evacuation and deploy flood defenses.

Simulating a 40-year flood event climatology of Australia with a view to ocean-land teleconnections

Science.gov (United States)

Schumann, Guy J.-P.; Andreadis, Konstantinos; Stampoulis, Dimitrios; Bates, Paul

2015-04-01

We develop, for the first time, a proof-of-concept version for a high-resolution global flood inundation model to generate a flood inundation climatology of the past 40 years (1973-2012) for the entire Australian continent at a native 1 km resolution. The objectives of our study includes (1) deriving an inundation climatology for a continent (Australia) as a demonstrator case to understand the requirements for expanding globally; (2) developing a test bed to assess the potential and value of current and future satellite missions (GRACE, SMAP, ICESat-2, AMSR-2, Sentinels and SWOT) in flood monitoring; and (3) answering science questions such as the linking of inundation to ocean circulation teleconnections. We employ the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model to generate a flood inundation climatology. The model will be built from freely available SRTM-derived data (channel widths, bank heights and floodplain topography corrected for vegetation canopy using ICESat canopy heights). Lakes and reservoirs are represented and channel hydraulics are resolved using actual channel data with bathymetry inferred from hydraulic geometry. Simulations are run with gauged flows and floodplain inundation climatology are compared to observations from GRACE, flood maps from Landsat, SAR, and MODIS. Simulations have been completed for the entire Australian continent. Additionally, changes in flood inundation have been correlated with indices related to global ocean circulation, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation index. We will produce data layers on flood event climatology and other derived (default) products from the proposed model including channel and floodplain depths, flow direction, velocity vectors, floodplain water volume, shoreline extent and flooded area. These data layers will be in the form of simple vector and raster formats. Since outputs will be large in size we propose to upload them onto Google Earth under the GEE API license.

The Chemical Product Simulator - ProCAPD

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kalakul, Sawitree; Eden, Mario Richard; Gani, Rafiqul

2017-01-01

In this paper, a chemical product design simulator called ProCAPD is presented. ProCAPD works in the same way as a chemical process simulator, that is, it helps to verify product design decisions and generates information that can be used to make design decisions. Like the contents of the process...... simulator, the product simulator needs a database of chemicals and properties, a library of models, numerical routines to solve mathematical problems as well as various calculation options. Also, like the process simulator, the product simulator comes with a user-interface to describe the problems.......); calculation tools (product attributes, blend compositions, environmental impact, etc.); design templates (single molecules, blends, formulations, emulsions, devices); and, design-simulation-analysis functions. All these capabilities are based on the prototype tool developed by Kalakul et al. (2017...

Distributed Simulation of City Inundation by Coupled Surface and Subsurface Porous Flow for Urban Flood Decision Support System

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Melnikova, N.B.; Chirkin, A.M.; Ivanov, S.V.; Boukhanovsky, A.V.; Sloot, P.M.A.

2013-01-01

We present a decision support system for flood early warning and disaster management. It includes the models for data- driven meteorological predictions, for simulation of atmospheric pressure, wind, long sea waves and seiches; a module for optimization of flood barrier gates operation; models for

Investigation of Chemical-Foam Design as a Novel Approach toward Immiscible Foam Flooding for Enhanced Oil Recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseini-Nasab, S M; Zitha, P L J

2017-10-19

Strong foam can be generated in porous media containing oil, resulting in incremental oil recovery; however, oil recovery factor is restricted. A large fraction of oil recovered by foam flooding forms an oil-in-water emulsion, so that costly methods may need to be used to separate the oil. Moreover, strong foam could create a large pressure gradient, which may cause fractures in the reservoir. This study presents a novel chemical-foam flooding process for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) from water-flooded reservoirs. The presented method involved the use of chemically designed foam to mobilize the remaining oil after water flooding and then to displace the mobilized oil to the production well. A blend of two anionic surfactant formulations was formulated for this method: (a) IOS, for achieving ultralow interfacial tension (IFT), and (b) AOS, for generating a strong foam. Experiments were performed using Bentheimer sandstone cores, where X-ray CT images were taken during foam generation to find the stability of the advancing front of foam propagation and to map the gas saturation for both the transient and the steady-state flow regimes. Then the proposed chemical-foam strategy for incremental oil recovery was tested through the coinjection of immiscible nitrogen gas and surfactant solutions with three different formulation properties in terms of IFT reduction and foaming strength capability. The discovered optimal formulation contains a foaming agent surfactant, a low IFT surfactant, and a cosolvent, which has a high foam stability and a considerably low IFT (1.6 × 10 -2 mN/m). Coinjection resulted in higher oil recovery and much less MRF than the same process with only using a foaming agent. The oil displacement experiment revealed that coinjection of gas with a blend of surfactants, containing a cosolvent, can recover a significant amount of oil (33% OIIP) over water flooding with a larger amount of clean oil and less emulsion.

Climate simulation and flood risk analysis for 2008-40 for Devils Lake, North Dakota

Science.gov (United States)

Vecchia, Aldo V.

2008-01-01

Devils Lake and Stump Lake in northeastern North Dakota receive surface runoff from a 3,810-square-mile drainage basin, and evaporation provides the only major water loss unless the lakes are above their natural spill elevation to the Sheyenne River. In September 2007, flow from Devils Lake to Stump Lake had filled Stump Lake and the two lakes consisted of essentially one water body with an elevation of 1,447.1 feet, about 3 feet below the existing base flood elevation (1,450 feet) and about 12 feet below the natural outlet elevation to the Sheyenne River (1,459 feet).Devils Lake could continue to rise, causing extensive additional flood damages in the basin and, in the event of an uncontrolled natural spill, downstream in the Red River of the North Basin. This report describes the results of a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, to evaluate future flood risk for Devils Lake and provide information for developing updated flood-insurance rate maps and planning flood-mitigation activities such as raising levees or roads.In about 1980, a large, abrupt, and highly significant increase in precipitation occurred in the Devils Lake Basin and elsewhere in the Northern Great Plains, and wetter-than-normal conditions have persisted through the present (2007). Although future precipitation is impossible to predict, paleoclimatic evidence and recent research on climate dynamics indicate the current wet conditions are not likely to end anytime soon. For example, there is about a 72-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 10 more years and about a 37-percent chance wet conditions will last at least 30 more years.A stochastic simulation model for Devils Lake and Stump Lake developed in a previous study was updated and used to generate 10,000 potential future realizations, or traces, of precipitation, evaporation, inflow, and lake levels given existing conditions on September 30, 2007, and randomly

Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

Science.gov (United States)

Zafar, Sumaira

2016-07-01

Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

An integrated simulation method for flash-flood risk assessment: 2. Effects of changes in land-use under a historical perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Rosso, R.; Rulli, M. C.

The influence of land use changes on flood occurrence and severity in the Bisagno River (Thyrrenian Liguria, N.W. Italy is investigated using a Monte Carlo simulation approach (Rulli and Rosso, 2002). High resolution land-use maps for the area were reconstructed and scenario simulations were made for a pre-industrial (1878), an intermediate (1930) and a current (1980) year. Land-use effects were explored to assess the consequences of distributed changes in land use due to agricultural practice and urbanisation. Hydraulic conveyance effects were considered, to assess the consequences of channel modifications associated with engineering works in the lower Bisagno River network. Flood frequency analyses of the annual flood series, retrieved from the simulations, were used to examine the effect of land-use change and river conveyance on flood regime. The impact of these effects proved to be negligible in the upper Bisagno River, moderate in the downstream river and severe in the small tributaries in the lower Bisagno valley that drain densely populated urban areas. The simulation approach is shown to be capable of incorporating historical data on landscape and river patterns into quantitative methods for risk assessment.

An at-site flood estimation method in the context of nonstationarity I. A simulation study

Science.gov (United States)

Gado, Tamer A.; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

2016-04-01

The stationarity of annual flood peak records is the traditional assumption of flood frequency analysis. In some cases, however, as a result of land-use and/or climate change, this assumption is no longer valid. Therefore, new statistical models are needed to capture dynamically the change of probability density functions over time, in order to obtain reliable flood estimation. In this study, an innovative method for nonstationary flood frequency analysis was presented. Here, the new method is based on detrending the flood series and applying the L-moments along with the GEV distribution to the transformed ;stationary; series (hereafter, this is called the LM-NS). The LM-NS method was assessed through a comparative study with the maximum likelihood (ML) method for the nonstationary GEV model, as well as with the stationary (S) GEV model. The comparative study, based on Monte Carlo simulations, was carried out for three nonstationary GEV models: a linear dependence of the mean on time (GEV1), a quadratic dependence of the mean on time (GEV2), and linear dependence in both the mean and log standard deviation on time (GEV11). The simulation results indicated that the LM-NS method performs better than the ML method for most of the cases studied, whereas the stationary method provides the least accurate results. An additional advantage of the LM-NS method is to avoid the numerical problems (e.g., convergence problems) that may occur with the ML method when estimating parameters for small data samples.

Application of Flood Nomograph for Flood Forecasting in Urban Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eui Hoon Lee

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Imperviousness has increased due to urbanization, as has the frequency of extreme rainfall events by climate change. Various countermeasures, such as structural and nonstructural measures, are required to prepare for these effects. Flood forecasting is a representative nonstructural measure. Flood forecasting techniques have been developed for the prevention of repetitive flood damage in urban areas. It is difficult to apply some flood forecasting techniques using training processes because training needs to be applied at every usage. The other flood forecasting techniques that use rainfall data predicted by radar are not appropriate for small areas, such as single drainage basins. In this study, a new flood forecasting technique is suggested to reduce flood damage in urban areas. The flood nomograph consists of the first flooding nodes in rainfall runoff simulations with synthetic rainfall data at each duration. When selecting the first flooding node, the initial amount of synthetic rainfall is 1 mm, which increases in 1 mm increments until flooding occurs. The advantage of this flood forecasting technique is its simple application using real-time rainfall data. This technique can be used to prepare a preemptive response in the process of urban flood management.

Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 1 - Reconstruction of Hurricane Harvey Flooding for Harris County, TX using a GPU-accelerated 2D flood model for post-flood hazard analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Kalyanapu, A. J.; Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Kao, S. C.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey that made landfall in the southern Texas this August is one of the most destructive hurricanes during the 2017 hurricane season. During its active period, many areas in coastal Texas region received more than 40 inches of rain. This downpour caused significant flooding resulting in about 77 casualties, displacing more than 30,000 people, inundating hundreds of thousands homes and is currently estimated to have caused more than $70 billion in direct damage. One of the significantly affected areas is Harris County where the city of Houston, TX is located. Covering over two HUC-8 drainage basins ( 2702 mi2), this county experienced more than 80% of its annual average rainfall during this event. This study presents an effort to reconstruct flooding caused by extreme rainfall due to Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. This computationally intensive task was performed at a 30-m spatial resolution using a rapid flood model called Flood2D-GPU, a graphics processing unit (GPU) accelerated model, on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) Titan Supercomputer. For this task, the hourly rainfall estimates from the National Center for Environmental Prediction Stage IV Quantitative Precipitation Estimate were fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and Routing Application for Parallel computation of Discharge (RAPID) routing model to estimate flow hydrographs at 69 locations for Flood2D-GPU simulation. Preliminary results of the simulation including flood inundation extents, maps of flood depths and inundation duration will be presented. Future efforts will focus on calibrating and validating the simulation results and assessing the flood damage for better understanding the impacts made by Hurricane Harvey.

Understanding the Future Market for NovaSAR-S Flood Mapping Products Using Data Mining and Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Lavender, Samantha; Haria, Kajal; Cooksley, Geraint; Farman, Alex; Beaton, Thomas

2016-08-01

The aim was to understand a future market for NovaSAR-S, with a particular focus on flood mapping, through developing a simple Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) simulator that can be used in advance of NovaSAR-S data becoming available.The return signal was determined from a combination of a terrain or elevation model, Envisat S-Band Radar Altimeter (RA)-2, Landsat and CORINE land cover information; allowing for a simulation of a SAR image that's influenced by both the geometry and surface type. The test sites correspond to data from the 2014 AirSAR campaign, and validation is performed by using AirSAR together with Envisat Advanced (ASAR) and Advanced Land Observing Satellite "Daichi" (ALOS) Phased Array type L-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) data.It's envisaged that the resulting simulated data, and the simulator, will not only aid early understanding of NovaSAR-S, but will also aid the development of flood mapping applications.

Pore-scale simulation of wettability and interfacial tension effects on flooding process for enhanced oil recovery.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Jin; Wen, Dongsheng

2017-08-27

For enhanced oil recovery (EOR) applications, the oil/water flow characteristics during the flooding process was numerically investigated with the volume-of-fluid method at the pore scale. A two-dimensional pore throat-body connecting structure was established, and four scenarios were simulated in this paper. For oil-saturated pores, the wettability effect on the flooding process was studied; for oil-unsaturated pores, three effects were modelled to investigate the oil/water phase flow behaviors, namely the wettability effect, the interfacial tension (IFT) effect, and the combined wettability/IFT effect. The results show that oil saturated pores with the water-wet state can lead to 25-40% more oil recovery than with the oil-wet state, and the remaining oil mainly stays in the near wall region of the pore bodies for oil-wet saturated pores. For oil-unsaturated pores, the wettability effects on the flooding process can help oil to detach from the pore walls. By decreasing the oil/water interfacial tension and altering the wettability from oil-wet to water-wet state, the remaining oil recovery rate can be enhanced successfully. The wettability-IFT combined effect shows better EOR potential compared with decreasing the interfacial tension alone under the oil-wet condition. The simulation results in this work are consistent with previous experimental and molecular dynamics simulation conclusions. The combination effect of the IFT reducation and wettability alteration can become an important recovery mechanism in future studies for nanoparticles, surfactant, and nanoparticle-surfactant hybrid flooding process.

Performance of aged cement - polymer composite immobilizing borate waste simulates during flooding scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eskander, S.B.; Bayoumi, T.A.; Saleh, H.M.

2012-01-01

An advanced composite of cement and water extended polyester based on the recycled Poly(ethylene terephthalate) waste was developed to incorporate the borate waste. Previous studies have reported the characterizations of the waste composite (cement-polymer composite immobilizing borate waste simulates) after 28 days of curing time. The current work studied the performance of waste composite aged for seven years and subjected to flooding scenario during 260 days using three types of water. The state of waste composite was assessed at the end of each definite interval of the water infiltration through visual examination and mechanical measurement. Scanning electron microscopy, infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction and thermal analyses were used to investigate the changes that may occur in the microstructure of the waste composite under aging and flooding effects. The actual experimental results indicated reasonable evidence for the waste composite. Acceptable consistency was confirmed for the waste composite even after aging seven years and exposure to flooding scenario for 260 days.

Modeling of Flood Mitigation Structures for Sarawak River Sub-basin Using Info Works River Simulation (RS)

OpenAIRE

Rosmina Bustami; Charles Bong; Darrien Mah; Afnie Hamzah; Marina Patrick

2009-01-01

The distressing flood scenarios that occur in recent years at the surrounding areas of Sarawak River have left damages of properties and indirectly caused disruptions of productive activities. This study is meant to reconstruct a 100-year flood event that took place in this river basin. Sarawak River Subbasin was chosen and modeled using the one-dimensional hydrodynamic modeling approach using InfoWorks River Simulation (RS), in combination with Geographical Information S...

Ensemble urban flood simulation in comparison with laboratory-scale experiments: Impact of interaction models for manhole, sewer pipe, and surface flow

Science.gov (United States)

Noh, Seong Jin; Lee, Seungsoo; An, Hyunuk; Kawaike, Kenji; Nakagawa, Hajime

2016-11-01

An urban flood is an integrated phenomenon that is affected by various uncertainty sources such as input forcing, model parameters, complex geometry, and exchanges of flow among different domains in surfaces and subsurfaces. Despite considerable advances in urban flood modeling techniques, limited knowledge is currently available with regard to the impact of dynamic interaction among different flow domains on urban floods. In this paper, an ensemble method for urban flood modeling is presented to consider the parameter uncertainty of interaction models among a manhole, a sewer pipe, and surface flow. Laboratory-scale experiments on urban flood and inundation are performed under various flow conditions to investigate the parameter uncertainty of interaction models. The results show that ensemble simulation using interaction models based on weir and orifice formulas reproduces experimental data with high accuracy and detects the identifiability of model parameters. Among interaction-related parameters, the parameters of the sewer-manhole interaction show lower uncertainty than those of the sewer-surface interaction. Experimental data obtained under unsteady-state conditions are more informative than those obtained under steady-state conditions to assess the parameter uncertainty of interaction models. Although the optimal parameters vary according to the flow conditions, the difference is marginal. Simulation results also confirm the capability of the interaction models and the potential of the ensemble-based approaches to facilitate urban flood simulation.

Exploitation of Documented Historical Floods for Achieving Better Flood Defense

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Slobodan Kolaković

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Establishing Base Flood Elevation for a stream network corresponding to a big catchment is feasible by interdisciplinary approach, involving stochastic hydrology, river hydraulics, and computer aided simulations. A numerical model calibrated by historical floods has been exploited in this study. The short presentation of the catchment of the Tisza River in this paper is followed by the overview of historical floods which hit the region in the documented period of 130 years. Several well documented historical floods provided opportunity for the calibration of the chosen numerical model. Once established, the model could be used for investigation of different extreme flood scenarios and to establish the Base Flood Elevation. The calibration has shown that the coefficient of friction in case of the Tisza River is dependent both on the actual water level and on the preceding flood events. The effect of flood plain maintenance as well as the activation of six potential detention ponds on flood mitigation has been examined. Furthermore, the expected maximum water levels have also been determined for the case if the ever observed biggest 1888 flood hit the region again. The investigated cases of flood superposition highlighted the impact of tributary Maros on flood mitigation along the Tisza River.

Sensitivity Analysis of the Surface Runoff Coefficient of HiPIMS in Simulating Flood Processes in a Large Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yueling Wang

2018-03-01

Full Text Available To simulate flood processes at the basin level, the GPU-based High-Performance Integrated Hydrodynamic Modelling System (HiPIMS is gaining interest as computational capability increases. However, the difficulty of coping with rainfall input to HiPIMS reduces the possibility of acquiring a satisfactory simulation accuracy. The objective of this study is to test the sensitivity of the surface runoff coefficient in the HiPIMS source term in the Misai basin with an area of 797 km2 in south China. To achieve this, the basin was divided into 909,824 grid cells, to each of which a Manning coefficient was assigned based on its land use type interpreted from remote sensing data. A sensitivity analysis was conducted for three typical flood processes under four types of surface runoff coefficients, assumed a priori, upon three error functions. The results demonstrate the crucial role of the surface runoff coefficient in achieving better simulation accuracy and reveal that this coefficient varies with flood scale and is unevenly distributed over the basin.

A hybrid method for flood simulation in small catchments combining hydrodynamic and hydrological techniques

Science.gov (United States)

Bellos, Vasilis; Tsakiris, George

2016-09-01

The study presents a new hybrid method for the simulation of flood events in small catchments. It combines a physically-based two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and the hydrological unit hydrograph theory. Unit hydrographs are derived using the FLOW-R2D model which is based on the full form of two-dimensional Shallow Water Equations, solved by a modified McCormack numerical scheme. The method is tested at a small catchment in a suburb of Athens-Greece for a storm event which occurred in February 2013. The catchment is divided into three friction zones and unit hydrographs of 15 and 30 min are produced. The infiltration process is simulated by the empirical Kostiakov equation and the Green-Ampt model. The results from the implementation of the proposed hybrid method are compared with recorded data at the hydrometric station at the outlet of the catchment and the results derived from the fully hydrodynamic model FLOW-R2D. It is concluded that for the case studied, the proposed hybrid method produces results close to those of the fully hydrodynamic simulation at substantially shorter computational time. This finding, if further verified in a variety of case studies, can be useful in devising effective hybrid tools for the two-dimensional flood simulations, which are lead to accurate and considerably faster results than those achieved by the fully hydrodynamic simulations.

Flood Simulation Using WMS Model in Small Watershed after Strong Earthquake -A Case Study of Longxihe Watershed, Sichuan province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, B.

2017-12-01

Mountain watershed in Western China is prone to flash floods. The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 led to the destruction of surface, and frequent landslides and debris flow, which further exacerbated the flash flood hazards. Two giant torrent and debris flows occurred due to heavy rainfall after the earthquake, one was on August 13 2010, and the other on August 18 2010. Flash floods reduction and risk assessment are the key issues in post-disaster reconstruction. Hydrological prediction models are important and cost-efficient mitigation tools being widely applied. In this paper, hydrological observations and simulation using remote sensing data and the WMS model are carried out in the typical flood-hit area, Longxihe watershed, Dujiangyan City, Sichuan Province, China. The hydrological response of rainfall runoff is discussed. The results show that: the WMS HEC-1 model can well simulate the runoff process of small watershed in mountainous area. This methodology can be used in other earthquake-affected areas for risk assessment and to predict the magnitude of flash floods. Key Words: Rainfall-runoff modeling. Remote Sensing. Earthquake. WMS.

Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

Science.gov (United States)

Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

2017-11-01

Flood frequency analyses (FFAs) are needed for flood risk management. Many methods exist ranging from classical purely statistical approaches to more complex approaches based on process simulation. The results of these methods are associated with uncertainties that are sometimes difficult to estimate due to the complexity of the approaches or the number of parameters, especially for process simulation. This is the case of the simulation-based FFA approach called SHYREG presented in this paper, in which a rainfall generator is coupled with a simple rainfall-runoff model in an attempt to estimate the uncertainties due to the estimation of the seven parameters needed to estimate flood frequencies. The six parameters of the rainfall generator are mean values, so their theoretical distribution is known and can be used to estimate the generator uncertainties. In contrast, the theoretical distribution of the single hydrological model parameter is unknown; consequently, a bootstrap method is applied to estimate the calibration uncertainties. The propagation of uncertainty from the rainfall generator to the hydrological model is also taken into account. This method is applied to 1112 basins throughout France. Uncertainties coming from the SHYREG method and from purely statistical approaches are compared, and the results are discussed according to the length of the recorded observations, basin size and basin location. Uncertainties of the SHYREG method decrease as the basin size increases or as the length of the recorded flow increases. Moreover, the results show that the confidence intervals of the SHYREG method are relatively small despite the complexity of the method and the number of parameters (seven). This is due to the stability of the parameters and takes into account the dependence of uncertainties due to the rainfall model and the hydrological calibration. Indeed, the uncertainties on the flow quantiles are on the same order of magnitude as those associated with

Capturing flood-to-drought transitions in regional climate model simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Anders, Ivonne; Haslinger, Klaus; Hofstätter, Michael; Salzmann, Manuela; Resch, Gernot

2017-04-01

In previous studies atmospheric cyclones have been investigated in terms of related precipitation extremes in Central Europe. Mediterranean (Vb-like) cyclones are of special relevance as they are frequently related to high atmospheric moisture fluxes leading to floods and landslides in the Alpine region. Another focus in this area is on droughts, affecting soil moisture and surface and sub-surface runoff as well. Such events develop differently depending on available pre-saturation of water in the soil. In a first step we investigated two time periods which encompass a flood event and a subsequent drought on very different time scales, one long lasting transition (2002/2003) and a rather short one between May and August 2013. In a second step we extended the investigation to the long time period 1950-2016. We focused on high spatial and temporal scales and assessed the currently achievable accuracy in the simulation of the Vb-events on one hand and following drought events on the other hand. The state-of-the-art regional climate model CCLM is applied in hindcast-mode simulating the single events described above, but also the time from 1948 to 2016 to evaluate the results from the short runs to be valid for the long time period. Besides the conventional forcing of the regional climate model at its lateral boundaries, a spectral nudging technique is applied. The simulations covering the European domain have been varied systematically different model parameters. The resulting precipitation amounts have been compared to E-OBS gridded European precipitation data set and a recent high spatially resolved precipitation data set for Austria (GPARD-6). For the drought events the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), soil moisture and runoff has been investigated. Varying the spectral nudging setup helps us to understand the 3D-processes during these events, but also to identify model deficiencies. To improve the simulation of such events in the past

CHEMICAL EVOLUTION LIBRARY FOR GALAXY FORMATION SIMULATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saitoh, Takayuki R.

2017-01-01

We have developed a software library for chemical evolution simulations of galaxy formation under the simple stellar population (SSP) approximation. In this library, all of the necessary components concerning chemical evolution, such as initial mass functions, stellar lifetimes, yields from Type II and Type Ia supernovae, asymptotic giant branch stars, and neutron star mergers, are compiled from the literature. Various models are pre-implemented in this library so that users can choose their favorite combination of models. Subroutines of this library return released energy and masses of individual elements depending on a given event type. Since the redistribution manner of these quantities depends on the implementation of users’ simulation codes, this library leaves it up to the simulation code. As demonstrations, we carry out both one-zone, closed-box simulations and 3D simulations of a collapsing gas and dark matter system using this library. In these simulations, we can easily compare the impact of individual models on the chemical evolution of galaxies, just by changing the control flags and parameters of the library. Since this library only deals with the part of chemical evolution under the SSP approximation, any simulation codes that use the SSP approximation—namely, particle-base and mesh codes, as well as semianalytical models—can use it. This library is named “CELib” after the term “Chemical Evolution Library” and is made available to the community.

CHEMICAL EVOLUTION LIBRARY FOR GALAXY FORMATION SIMULATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saitoh, Takayuki R., E-mail: saitoh@elsi.jp [Earth-Life Science Institute, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1, Ookayama, Meguro, Tokyo, 152-8551 (Japan)

2017-02-01

We have developed a software library for chemical evolution simulations of galaxy formation under the simple stellar population (SSP) approximation. In this library, all of the necessary components concerning chemical evolution, such as initial mass functions, stellar lifetimes, yields from Type II and Type Ia supernovae, asymptotic giant branch stars, and neutron star mergers, are compiled from the literature. Various models are pre-implemented in this library so that users can choose their favorite combination of models. Subroutines of this library return released energy and masses of individual elements depending on a given event type. Since the redistribution manner of these quantities depends on the implementation of users’ simulation codes, this library leaves it up to the simulation code. As demonstrations, we carry out both one-zone, closed-box simulations and 3D simulations of a collapsing gas and dark matter system using this library. In these simulations, we can easily compare the impact of individual models on the chemical evolution of galaxies, just by changing the control flags and parameters of the library. Since this library only deals with the part of chemical evolution under the SSP approximation, any simulation codes that use the SSP approximation—namely, particle-base and mesh codes, as well as semianalytical models—can use it. This library is named “CELib” after the term “Chemical Evolution Library” and is made available to the community.

High-resolution flood modeling of urban areas using MSN_Flood

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Hartnett

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Although existing hydraulic models have been used to simulate and predict urban flooding, most of these models are inadequate due to the high spatial resolution required to simulate flows in urban floodplains. Nesting high-resolution subdomains within coarser-resolution models is an efficient solution for enabling simultaneous calculation of flooding due to tides, surges, and high river flows. MSN_Flood has been developed to incorporate moving boundaries around nested domains, permitting alternate flooding and drying along the boundary and in the interior of the domain. Ghost cells adjacent to open boundary cells convert open boundaries, in effect, into internal boundaries. The moving boundary may be multi-segmented and non-continuous, with recirculating flow across the boundary. When combined with a bespoke adaptive interpolation scheme, this approach facilitates a dynamic internal boundary. Based on an alternating-direction semi-implicit finite difference scheme, MSN_Flood was used to hindcast a major flood event in Cork City resulting from the combined pressures of fluvial, tidal, and storm surge processes. The results show that the model is computationally efficient, as the 2-m high-resolution nest is used only in the urban flooded region. Elsewhere, lower-resolution nests are used. The results also show that the model is highly accurate when compared with measured data. The model is capable of incorporating nested sub-domains when the nested boundary is multi-segmented and highly complex with lateral gradients of elevation and velocities. This is a major benefit when modelling urban floodplains at very high resolution.

Fuel rod simulator effects in flooding experiments single rod tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nishida, M.

1984-09-01

The influence of a gas filled gap between cladding and pellet on the quenching behavior of a PWR fuel rod during the reflood phase of a LOCA has been investigated. Flooding experiments were conducted with a short length electrically heated single fuel rod simulator surrounded by glass housing. The gap of 0.05 mm width between the Zircaloy cladding and the internal Al 2 O 3 pellets of the rod was filled either wit helium or with argon to vary the radial heat resistance across the gap. This report presents some typical data and an evaluation of the reflood behavior of the fuel rod simulator used. The results show that the quench front propagates faster for increasing heat resistance in the gap between cladding and heat source of the rod. (orig.) [de

Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

Science.gov (United States)

Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

2016-08-01

This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

Analysis of Hydrological Sensitivity for Flood Risk Assessment

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Sanjay Kumar Sharma

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In order for the Indian government to maximize Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM, the Brahmaputra River has played an important role in the undertaking of the Pilot Basin Study (PBS due to the Brahmaputra River’s annual regional flooding. The selected Kulsi River—a part of Brahmaputra sub-basin—experienced severe floods in 2007 and 2008. In this study, the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI hydrological model was used to simulate the recent historical flood in order to understand and improve the integrated flood risk management plan. The ultimate objective was to evaluate the sensitivity of hydrologic simulation using different Digital Elevation Model (DEM resources, coupled with DEM smoothing techniques, with a particular focus on the comparison of river discharge and flood inundation extent. As a result, the sensitivity analysis showed that, among the input parameters, the RRI model is highly sensitive to Manning’s roughness coefficient values for flood plains, followed by the source of the DEM, and then soil depth. After optimizing its parameters, the simulated inundation extent showed that the smoothing filter was more influential than its simulated discharge at the outlet. Finally, the calibrated and validated RRI model simulations agreed well with the observed discharge and the Moderate Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS-detected flood extents.

Simulating floods in the Amazon River Basin: Impacts of new river geomorphic and dynamic flow parameterizations

Science.gov (United States)

Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Howard, E. A.

2006-12-01

In this paper we analyze the hydrology of the Amazon River system for the latter half of the 20th century with our recently completed model of terrestrial hydrology (Terrestrial Hydrology Model with Biogeochemistry, THMB). We evaluate the simulated hydrology of the Central Amazon basin against limited observations of river discharge, floodplain inundation, and water height and analyze the spatial and temporal variability of the hydrology for the period 1939-1998. We compare the simulated discharge and floodplain inundated area to the simulations by Coe et al., 2002 using a previous version of this model. The new model simulates the discharge and flooded area in better agreement with the observations than the previous model. The coefficient of correlation between the simulated and observed discharge for the greater than 27000 monthly observations of discharge at 120 sites throughout the Brazilian Amazon is 0.9874 compared to 0.9744 for the previous model. The coefficient of correlation between the simulated monthly flooded area and the satellite-based estimates by Sippel et al., 1998 exceeds 0.7 for 8 of the 12 mainstem reaches. The seasonal and inter-annual variability of the water height and the river slope compares favorably to the satellite altimetric measurements of height reported by Birkett et al., 2002.

Using remotely sensed data and stochastic models to simulate realistic flood hazard footprints across the continental US

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Sampson, C. C.; Smith, A.; Wing, O.; Neal, J. C.

2017-12-01

Remotely sensed data has transformed the field of large scale hydraulic modelling. New digital elevation, hydrography and river width data has allowed such models to be created for the first time, and remotely sensed observations of water height, slope and water extent has allowed them to be calibrated and tested. As a result, we are now able to conduct flood risk analyses at national, continental or even global scales. However, continental scale analyses have significant additional complexity compared to typical flood risk modelling approaches. Traditional flood risk assessment uses frequency curves to define the magnitude of extreme flows at gauging stations. The flow values for given design events, such as the 1 in 100 year return period flow, are then used to drive hydraulic models in order to produce maps of flood hazard. Such an approach works well for single gauge locations and local models because over relatively short river reaches (say 10-60km) one can assume that the return period of an event does not vary. At regional to national scales and across multiple river catchments this assumption breaks down, and for a given flood event the return period will be different at different gauging stations, a pattern known as the event `footprint'. Despite this, many national scale risk analyses still use `constant in space' return period hazard layers (e.g. the FEMA Special Flood Hazard Areas) in their calculations. Such an approach can estimate potential exposure, but will over-estimate risk and cannot determine likely flood losses over a whole region or country. We address this problem by using a stochastic model to simulate many realistic extreme event footprints based on observed gauged flows and the statistics of gauge to gauge correlations. We take the entire USGS gauge data catalogue for sites with > 45 years of record and use a conditional approach for multivariate extreme values to generate sets of flood events with realistic return period variation in

Modeling Wettability Variation during Long-Term Water Flooding

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Renyi Cao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Surface property of rock affects oil recovery during water flooding. Oil-wet polar substances adsorbed on the surface of the rock will gradually be desorbed during water flooding, and original reservoir wettability will change towards water-wet, and the change will reduce the residual oil saturation and improve the oil displacement efficiency. However there is a lack of an accurate description of wettability alternation model during long-term water flooding and it will lead to difficulties in history match and unreliable forecasts using reservoir simulators. This paper summarizes the mechanism of wettability variation and characterizes the adsorption of polar substance during long-term water flooding from injecting water or aquifer and relates the residual oil saturation and relative permeability to the polar substance adsorbed on clay and pore volumes of flooding water. A mathematical model is presented to simulate the long-term water flooding and the model is validated with experimental results. The simulation results of long-term water flooding are also discussed.

Effects of the 2008 flood on economic performance and food security in Yemen: a simulation analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Breisinger, Clemens; Ecker, Olivier; Thiele, Rainer; Wiebelt, Manfred

2016-04-01

Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts can have devastating consequences for individual well being and economic development, in particular in poor societies with limited availability of coping mechanisms. Combining a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the Yemeni economy with a household-level calorie consumption simulation model, this paper assesses the economy-wide, agricultural and food security effects of the 2008 tropical storm and flash flood that hit the Hadramout and Al-Mahrah governorates. The estimation results suggest that agricultural value added, farm household incomes and rural food security deteriorated long term in the flood-affected areas. Due to economic spillover effects, significant income losses and increases in food insecurity also occurred in areas that were unaffected by flooding. This finding suggests that while most relief efforts are typically concentrated in directly affected areas, future efforts should also consider surrounding areas and indirectly affected people. © 2016 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2016.

Computer simulation of chemical nucleation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, J.S.

1979-01-01

The problem of nucleation at chemical instabilities is investigated by means of microscopic computer simulation. The first-order transition of interest involves a new kind of nucleation arising from chemical transformations rather than physical forces. Here it is the chemical state of matter, and not matter itself, which is spatially localized to form the nucleus for transition between different chemical states. First, the concepts of chemical instability, nonequilibrium phase transition, and dissipative structure are reviewed briefly. Then recently developed methods of reactive molecular dynamics are used to study chemical nucleation in a simple model chemical reactions. Finally, the connection of these studies to nucleation and condensation processes involving physical and chemical interactions is explored. (orig.)

Dynamics of water and nutrients for potted plants induced by flooded bench fertigation : experiments and simulation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Otten, W.

1994-01-01

Dynamics of water and nutrients as affected by physical and chemical characteristics of a substrate, fertigation method and schedule, and plant uptake were studied for a flooded bench fertigation system for potted plants, through a detailed experimental study of the root environment and a

The Calculation of Flooding Level using CFX Code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oh, Seo Bin; Kim, Keon Yeop; Lee, Hyung Ho

2015-01-01

The plant design should consider internal flooding by postulated pipe ruptures, component failures, actuation of spray systems, and improper system alignment. The flooding causes failure of safety-related equipment and affects the integrity of the structure. The safety-related equipment should be installed above the flood level for protection against flooding effects. Conservative estimates of the flood level are important when a DBA occurs. The flooding level can be calculated simply applying Bernoulli's equation. However, in this study, a realistic calculation is performed with ANSYS CFX code. In calculation with CFX, air-core vortex phenomena, and turbulent flow can be simulated, which cannot be calculated analytically. The flooding level is evaluated by analytical calculation and CFX analysis for an assumed condition. The flood level is calculated as 0.71m and 1.1m analytically and with CFX simulation, respectively. Comparing the analytical calculation and simulation, they are similar, but the analytical calculation is not conservative. There are many factors reducing the drainage capacity such as air-core vortex, intake of air, and turbulent flow. Therefore, in case of flood level evaluation by analytical calculation, a sufficient safety margin should be considered

Chemical Flooding in Heavy-Oil Reservoirs: From Technical Investigation to Optimization Using Response Surface Methodology

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Si Le Van

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Heavy-oil resources represent a large percentage of global oil and gas reserves, however, owing to the high viscosity, enhanced oil recovery (EOR techniques are critical issues for extracting this type of crude oil from the reservoir. According to the survey data in Oil & Gas Journal, thermal methods are the most widely utilized in EOR projects in heavy oil fields in the US and Canada, and there are not many successful chemical flooding projects for heavy oil reported elsewhere in the world. However, thermal methods such as steam injection might be restricted in cases of thin formations, overlying permafrost, or reservoir depths over 4500 ft, for which chemical flooding becomes a better option for recovering crude oil. Moreover, owing to the considerable fluctuations in the oil price, chemical injection plans should be employed consistently in terms of either technical or economic viewpoints. The numerical studies in this work aim to clarify the predominant chemical injection schemes among the various combinations of chemical agents involving alkali (A, surfactant (S and polymer (P for specific heavy-oil reservoir conditions. The feasibilities of all potential injection sequences are evaluated in the pre-evaluation stage in order to select the most efficient injection scheme according to the variation in the oil price which is based on practical market values. Finally, optimization procedures in the post-evaluation stage are carried out for the most economic injection plan by an effective mathematic tool with the purpose of gaining highest Net Present Value (NPV of the project. In technical terms, the numerical studies confirm the predominant performances of sequences in which alkali-surfactant-polymer (ASP solution is injected after the first preflushing water whereby the recovery factor can be higher than 47%. In particular, the oil production performances are improved by injecting a buffering viscous fluid right after the first chemical slug

Simulated and observed 2010 flood-water elevations in selected river reaches in the Moshassuck and Woonasquatucket River Basins, Rhode Island

Science.gov (United States)

Zarriello, Phillip J.; Straub, David E.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.

2014-01-01

Heavy persistent rains from late February through March 2010 caused severe flooding and set, or nearly set, peaks of record for streamflows and water levels at many long-term U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in Rhode Island. In response to this flood, hydraulic models were updated for selected reaches covering about 33 river miles in Moshassuck and Woonasquatucket River Basins from the most recent approved Federal Emergency Management Agency flood insurance study (FIS) to simulate water-surface elevations (WSEs) from specified flows and boundary conditions. Reaches modeled include the main stem of the Moshassuck River and its main tributary, the West River, and three tributaries to the West River—Upper Canada Brook, Lincoln Downs Brook, and East Branch West River; and the main stem of the Woonasquatucket River. All the hydraulic models were updated to Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) version 4.1.0 and incorporate new field-survey data at structures, high-resolution land-surface elevation data, and flood flows from a related study. The models were used to simulate steady-state WSEs at the 1- and 2-percent annual exceedance probability (AEP) flows, which is the estimated AEP of the 2010 flood in the Moshassuck River Basin and the Woonasquatucket River, respectively. The simulated WSEs were compared to the high-water mark (HWM) elevation data obtained in these basins in a related study following the March–April 2010 flood, which included 18 HWMs along the Moshassuck River and 45 HWMs along the Woonasquatucket River. Differences between the 2010 HWMs and the simulated 2- and 1-percent AEP WSEs from the FISs and the updated models developed in this study varied along the reach. Most differences could be attributed to the magnitude of the 2- and 1-percent AEP flows used in the FIS and updated model flows. Overall, the updated model and the FIS WSEs were not appreciably different when compared to the observed 2010 HWMs along the

Study of the adaptive refinement on an open source 2D shallow-water flow solver using quadtree grid for flash flood simulations.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirstetter, G.; Popinet, S.; Fullana, J. M.; Lagrée, P. Y.; Josserand, C.

2015-12-01

The full resolution of shallow-water equations for modeling flash floods may have a high computational cost, so that majority of flood simulation softwares used for flood forecasting uses a simplification of this model : 1D approximations, diffusive or kinematic wave approximations or exotic models using non-physical free parameters. These kind of approximations permit to save a lot of computational time by sacrificing in an unquantified way the precision of simulations. To reduce drastically the cost of such 2D simulations by quantifying the lost of precision, we propose a 2D shallow-water flow solver built with the open source code Basilisk1, which is using adaptive refinement on a quadtree grid. This solver uses a well-balanced central-upwind scheme, which is at second order in time and space, and treats the friction and rain terms implicitly in finite volume approach. We demonstrate the validity of our simulation on the case of the flood of Tewkesbury (UK) occurred in July 2007, as shown on Fig. 1. On this case, a systematic study of the impact of the chosen criterium for adaptive refinement is performed. The criterium which has the best computational time / precision ratio is proposed. Finally, we present the power law giving the computational time in respect to the maximum resolution and we show that this law for our 2D simulation is close to the one of 1D simulation, thanks to the fractal dimension of the topography. [1] http://basilisk.fr/

A compositional reservoir simulator on distributed memory parallel computers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rame, M.; Delshad, M.

1995-01-01

This paper presents the application of distributed memory parallel computes to field scale reservoir simulations using a parallel version of UTCHEM, The University of Texas Chemical Flooding Simulator. The model is a general purpose highly vectorized chemical compositional simulator that can simulate a wide range of displacement processes at both field and laboratory scales. The original simulator was modified to run on both distributed memory parallel machines (Intel iPSC/960 and Delta, Connection Machine 5, Kendall Square 1 and 2, and CRAY T3D) and a cluster of workstations. A domain decomposition approach has been taken towards parallelization of the code. A portion of the discrete reservoir model is assigned to each processor by a set-up routine that attempts a data layout as even as possible from the load-balance standpoint. Each of these subdomains is extended so that data can be shared between adjacent processors for stencil computation. The added routines that make parallel execution possible are written in a modular fashion that makes the porting to new parallel platforms straight forward. Results of the distributed memory computing performance of Parallel simulator are presented for field scale applications such as tracer flood and polymer flood. A comparison of the wall-clock times for same problems on a vector supercomputer is also presented

The effect of the 2011 flood on agricultural chemical and sediment movement in the lower Mississippi River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Welch, H.; Coupe, R.; Aulenbach, B.

2012-04-01

Extreme hydrologic events, such as floods, can overwhelm a surface water system's ability to process chemicals and can move large amounts of material downstream to larger surface water bodies. The Mississippi River is the 3rd largest River in the world behind the Amazon in South America and the Congo in Africa. The Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin grows much of the country's corn, soybean, rice, cotton, pigs, and chickens. This is large-scale modern day agriculture with large inputs of nutrients to increase yields and large applied amounts of crop protection chemicals, such as pesticides. The basin drains approximately 41% of the conterminous United States and is the largest contributor of nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico each spring. The amount of water and nutrients discharged from the Mississippi River has been related to the size of the low dissolved oxygen area that forms off of the coast of Louisiana and Texas each summer. From March through April 2011, the upper Mississippi River basin received more than five times more precipitation than normal, which combined with snow melt from the Missouri River basin, created a historic flood event that lasted from April through July. The U.S. Geological Survey, as part of the National Stream Quality Accounting Network (NASQAN), collected samples from six sites located in the lower Mississippi-Atchafalaya River basin, as well as, samples from the three flow-diversion structures or floodways: the Birds Point-New Madrid in Missouri and the Morganza and Bonnet Carré in Louisiana, from April through July. Samples were analyzed for nutrients, pesticides, suspended sediments, and particle size; results were used to determine the water quality of the river during the 2011 flood. Monthly loads for nitrate, phosphorus, pesticides (atrazine, glyphosate, fluometuron, and metolachlor), and sediment were calculated to quantify the movement of agricultural chemicals and sediment into the Gulf of Mexico. Nutrient loads were

Using sea surface temperatures to improve performance of single dynamical downscaling model in flood simulation under climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Y.; Cheng, C. T.; Hsiao, Y. H.; Hsu, C. T.; Yeh, K. C.; Liu, P. L.

2017-12-01

There are 5.3 typhoons hit Taiwan per year on average in last decade. Typhoon Morakot in 2009, the most severe typhoon, causes huge damage in Taiwan, including 677 casualties and roughly NT 110 billion (3.3 billion USD) in economic loss. Some researches documented that typhoon frequency will decrease but increase in intensity in western North Pacific region. It is usually preferred to use high resolution dynamical model to get better projection of extreme events; because coarse resolution models cannot simulate intense extreme events. Under that consideration, dynamical downscaling climate data was chosen to describe typhoon satisfactorily, this research used the simulation data from AGCM of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-AGCM). Considering dynamical downscaling methods consume massive computing power, and typhoon number is very limited in a single model simulation, using dynamical downscaling data could cause uncertainty in disaster risk assessment. In order to improve the problem, this research used four sea surfaces temperatures (SSTs) to increase the climate change scenarios under RCP 8.5. In this way, MRI-AGCMs project 191 extreme typhoons in Taiwan (when typhoon center touches 300 km sea area of Taiwan) in late 21th century. SOBEK, a two dimensions flood simulation model, was used to assess the flood risk under four SSTs climate change scenarios in Tainan, Taiwan. The results show the uncertainty of future flood risk assessment is significantly decreased in Tainan, Taiwan in late 21th century. Four SSTs could efficiently improve the problems of limited typhoon numbers in single model simulation.

Indirect Damage of Urban Flooding: Investigation of Flood-Induced Traffic Congestion Using Dynamic Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jingxuan Zhu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available In many countries, industrialization has led to rapid urbanization. Increased frequency of urban flooding is one consequence of the expansion of urban areas which can seriously affect the productivity and livelihoods of urban residents. Therefore, it is of vital importance to study the effects of rainfall and urban flooding on traffic congestion and driver behavior. In this study, a comprehensive method to analyze the influence of urban flooding on traffic congestion was developed. First, a flood simulation was conducted to predict the spatiotemporal distribution of flooding based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM and TELAMAC-2D. Second, an agent-based model (ABM was used to simulate driver behavior during a period of urban flooding, and a car-following model was established. Finally, in order to study the mechanisms behind how urban flooding affects traffic congestion, the impact of flooding on urban traffic was investigated based on a case study of the urban area of Lishui, China, covering an area of 4.4 km2. It was found that for most events, two-hour rainfall has a certain impact on traffic congestion over a five-hour period, with the greatest impact during the hour following the cessation of the rain. Furthermore, the effects of rainfall with 10- and 20-year return periods were found to be similar and small, whereas the effects with a 50-year return period were obvious. Based on a combined analysis of hydrology and transportation, the proposed methods and conclusions could help to reduce traffic congestion during flood seasons, to facilitate early warning and risk management of urban flooding, and to assist users in making informed decisions regarding travel.

Simulation of coastal floodings during a typhoon event with the consideration of future sea-level rises.

Science.gov (United States)

Shu-Huei, Jhang; Chih-Chung, Wen; Dong-Jiing, Doong; Cheng-Han, Tsai

2017-04-01

Taiwan is an Island in the western Pacific Ocean and experienced more than 3 typhoons in a year. Typhoons bring intense rainfall, high waves, and storm surges, which often resulted in coastal flooding. The flooding can be aggravated by the sea level rise due to the global warming, which may subject Taiwan's coastal areas to more serious damage in the future than present. The objectives of this study are to investigate the flooding caused by typhoons in the Annan District, Tainan, a city on the southwest coast of Taiwan by numerical simulations, considering the effects of sea-level rises according to the level suggested by the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) for 2050 and 2100, respectively. The simulations were carried out by using MIKE21 HD (a hydrodynamic model) and MIKE21 SW (a spectral wave model). In our simulation, we used an intense typhoon, named Soudelor, as our base typhoon, which made its landfall on the east coast of Taiwan in the summer of 2015, traveled through the width of the island, and exited the island to the north of Tainan. The reasons we pick this typhoon are that it passed near our objective area, wind field data for this typhoon are available, and we have well documented coastal wave and water level measurements during the passage of Typhoon Soudelor. We firstly used ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) wind field data to reconstruct typhoon waves and storm surges for this typhoon by using coupled MIKE21 SW and MIKE21 HD in a regional model. The resultant simulated wave height and sea-level height matched satisfactorily with the measured data. The wave height and storm surge calculated by the regional model provided the boundary conditions for our fine-grid domain. Then different sea-level rises suggested by the IPCC were incorporated into the fine-grid model. Since river discharge due to intense rainfall has also to be considered for coastal flooding, our fine-grid models

Merging LIDAR digital terrain model with direct observed elevation points for urban flood numerical simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Arrighi, Chiara; Campo, Lorenzo

2017-04-01

In last years, the concern about the economical and lives loss due to urban floods has grown hand in hand with the numerical skills in simulating such events. The large amount of computational power needed in order to address the problem (simulating a flood in a complex terrain such as a medium-large city) is only one of the issues. Among them it is possible to consider the general lack of exhaustive observations during the event (exact extension, dynamic, water level reached in different parts of the involved area), needed for calibration and validation of the model, the need of considering the sewers effects, and the availability of a correct and precise description of the geometry of the problem. In large cities the topographic surveys are in general available with a number of points, but a complete hydraulic simulation needs a detailed description of the terrain on the whole computational domain. LIDAR surveys can achieve this goal, providing a comprehensive description of the terrain, although they often lack precision. In this work an optimal merging of these two sources of geometrical information, measured elevation points and LIDAR survey, is proposed, by taking into account the error variance of both. The procedure is applied to a flood-prone city over an area of 35 square km approximately starting with a DTM from LIDAR with a spatial resolution of 1 m, and 13000 measured points. The spatial pattern of the error (LIDAR vs points) is analysed, and the merging method is tested with a series of Jackknife procedures that take into account different densities of the available points. A discussion of the results is provided.

Testing of the river system simulator on the river system of Stjoerdalen. Simulation of floods in the lower parts of the Stjoerdalselva with HEC-2; Utproeving av vassdragssimulatoren i Stjoerdalsvassdraget. Simulering av flomforhold i nedre deler av Stjoerdalselva med HEC-2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harby, A.; Bakken, T.H.

1994-05-01

This report describes a part of the testing of a computer simulator for river systems. The simulator can be used to simulate how a river system is affected by various types of exploitation and will be especially useful for consequence analyses. The simulator has been tested on three river systems in Norway. Being one of 17 reports on the complete testing, this report concentrates on the flood conditions in the lower parts of the river Stjoerdalselva. This area is flat farm land with some risk of floods. The simulation model used is HEC-2 and should not be used if the flow pattern changes from subcritical to supercriticle flow. 3 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

iFLOOD: A Real Time Flood Forecast System for Total Water Modeling in the National Capital Region

Science.gov (United States)

Sumi, S. J.; Ferreira, C.

2017-12-01

Extreme flood events are the costliest natural hazards impacting the US and frequently cause extensive damages to infrastructure, disruption to economy and loss of lives. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew brought severe damage to South Carolina and demonstrated the importance of accurate flood hazard predictions that requires the integration of riverine and coastal model forecasts for total water prediction in coastal and tidal areas. The National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Ocean Service (NOS) provide flood forecasts for almost the entire US, still there are service-gap areas in tidal regions where no official flood forecast is available. The National capital region is vulnerable to multi-flood hazards including high flows from annual inland precipitation events and surge driven coastal inundation along the tidal Potomac River. Predicting flood levels on such tidal areas in river-estuarine zone is extremely challenging. The main objective of this study is to develop the next generation of flood forecast systems capable of providing accurate and timely information to support emergency management and response in areas impacted by multi-flood hazards. This forecast system is capable of simulating flood levels in the Potomac and Anacostia River incorporating the effects of riverine flooding from the upstream basins, urban storm water and tidal oscillations from the Chesapeake Bay. Flood forecast models developed so far have been using riverine data to simulate water levels for Potomac River. Therefore, the idea is to use forecasted storm surge data from a coastal model as boundary condition of this system. Final output of this validated model will capture the water behavior in river-estuary transition zone far better than the one with riverine data only. The challenge for this iFLOOD forecast system is to understand the complex dynamics of multi-flood hazards caused by storm surges, riverine flow, tidal oscillation and urban storm water. Automated system

Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeuchi, Hiroaki; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Yamazaki, Dai; Muis, Sanne; Ward, Philip J.; Winsemius, Hessel C.; Verlaan, Martin; Kanae, Shinjiro

2017-08-01

Water-related disasters, such as fluvial floods and cyclonic storm surges, are a major concern in the world's mega-delta regions. Furthermore, the simultaneous occurrence of extreme discharges from rivers and storm surges could exacerbate flood risk, compared to when they occur separately. Hence, it is of great importance to assess the compound risks of fluvial and coastal floods at a large scale, including mega-deltas. However, most studies on compound fluvial and coastal flooding have been limited to relatively small scales, and global-scale or large-scale studies have not yet addressed both of them. The objectives of this study are twofold: to develop a global coupled river-coast flood model; and to conduct a simulation of compound fluvial flooding and storm surges in Asian mega-delta regions. A state-of-the-art global river routing model was modified to represent the influence of dynamic sea surface levels on river discharges and water levels. We conducted the experiments by coupling a river model with a global tide and surge reanalysis data set. Results show that water levels in deltas and estuaries are greatly affected by the interaction between river discharge, ocean tides and storm surges. The effects of storm surges on fluvial flooding are further examined from a regional perspective, focusing on the case of Cyclone Sidr in the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna Delta in 2007. Modeled results demonstrate that a >3 m storm surge propagated more than 200 km inland along rivers. We show that the performance of global river routing models can be improved by including sea level dynamics.

Two-dimensional simulation of the June 11, 2010, flood of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreational Area, Ouachita National Forest, Arkansas

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Daniel M.

2013-01-01

In the early morning hours of June 11, 2010, substantial flooding occurred at Albert Pike Recreation Area in the Ouachita National Forest of west-central Arkansas, killing 20 campers. The U.S. Forest Service needed information concerning the extent and depth of flood inundation, the water velocity, and flow paths throughout Albert Pike Recreation Area for the flood and for streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The two-dimensional flow model Fst2DH, part of the Federal Highway Administration’s Finite Element Surface-water Modeling System, and the graphical user interface Surface-water Modeling System (SMS) were used to perform a steady-state simulation of the flood in a 1.5-mile reach of the Little Missouri River at Albert Pike Recreation Area. Peak streamflows of the Little Missouri River and tributary Brier Creek served as inputs to the simulation, which was calibrated to the surveyed elevations of high-water marks left by the flood and then used to predict flooding that would result from streamflows corresponding to annual exceedence probabilities of 1 and 2 percent. The simulated extent of the June 11, 2010, flood matched the observed extent of flooding at Albert Pike Recreation Area. The mean depth of inundation in the camp areas was 8.5 feet in Area D, 7.4 feet in Area C, 3.8 feet in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 12.5 feet in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. The mean water velocity was 7.2 feet per second in Area D, 7.6 feet per second in Area C, 7.2 feet per second in Areas A, B, and the Day Use Area, and 7.6 feet per second in Lowry’s Camp Albert Pike. A sensitivity analysis indicated that varying the streamflow of the Little Missouri River had the greatest effect on simulated water-surface elevation, while varying the streamflow of tributary Brier Creek had the least effect. Simulated water-surface elevations were lower than those modeled by the U.S. Forest Service using the standard-step method, but the

Urban pluvial flood prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

2016-01-01

Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numerically both...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0–2 h lead time, and numerical weather models with lead times up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model in order to investigate the relative difference between different inputs in predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been flooded in 2012 and 2014. Results show it is possible to generate detailed flood maps...

Unstructured mesh adaptivity for urban flooding modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, R.; Fang, F.; Salinas, P.; Pain, C. C.

2018-05-01

Over the past few decades, urban floods have been gaining more attention due to their increase in frequency. To provide reliable flooding predictions in urban areas, various numerical models have been developed to perform high-resolution flood simulations. However, the use of high-resolution meshes across the whole computational domain causes a high computational burden. In this paper, a 2D control-volume and finite-element flood model using adaptive unstructured mesh technology has been developed. This adaptive unstructured mesh technique enables meshes to be adapted optimally in time and space in response to the evolving flow features, thus providing sufficient mesh resolution where and when it is required. It has the advantage of capturing the details of local flows and wetting and drying front while reducing the computational cost. Complex topographic features are represented accurately during the flooding process. For example, the high-resolution meshes around the buildings and steep regions are placed when the flooding water reaches these regions. In this work a flooding event that happened in 2002 in Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom has been simulated to demonstrate the capability of the adaptive unstructured mesh flooding model. The simulations have been performed using both fixed and adaptive unstructured meshes, and then results have been compared with those published 2D and 3D results. The presented method shows that the 2D adaptive mesh model provides accurate results while having a low computational cost.

Discrete-Event Simulation in Chemical Engineering.

Science.gov (United States)

Schultheisz, Daniel; Sommerfeld, Jude T.

1988-01-01

Gives examples, descriptions, and uses for various types of simulation systems, including the Flowtran, Process, Aspen Plus, Design II, GPSS, Simula, and Simscript. Explains similarities in simulators, terminology, and a batch chemical process. Tables and diagrams are included. (RT)

The Significance of the Spatial Variability of Rainfall on the Numerical Simulation of Urban Floods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laurent Guillaume Courty

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The growth of urban population, combined with an increase of extreme events due to climate change call for a better understanding and representation of urban floods. The uncertainty in rainfall distribution is one of the most important factors that affects the watershed response to a given precipitation event. However, most of the investigations on this topic have considered theoretical scenarios, with little reference to case studies in the real world. This paper incorporates the use of spatially-variable precipitation data from a long-range radar in the simulation of the severe floods that impacted the city of Hull, U.K., in June 2007. This radar-based rainfall field is merged with rain gauge data using a Kriging with External Drift interpolation technique. The utility of this spatially-variable information is investigated through the comparison of computed flooded areas (uniform and radar against those registered by public authorities. Both results show similar skills at reproducing the real event, but differences in the total precipitated volumes, water depths and flooded areas are illustrated. It is envisaged that in urban areas and with the advent of higher resolution radars, these differences will be more important and call for further investigation.

Flood-inundation and flood-mitigation modeling of the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek Watershed in West Branch, Iowa

Science.gov (United States)

Cigrand, Charles V.

2018-03-26

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the city of West Branch and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site of the National Park Service assessed flood-mitigation scenarios within the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek watershed. The scenarios are intended to demonstrate several means of decreasing peak streamflows and improving the conveyance of overbank flows from the West Branch Wapsinonoc Creek and its tributary Hoover Creek where they flow through the city and the Herbert Hoover National Historic Site located within the city.Hydrologic and hydraulic models of the watershed were constructed to assess the flood-mitigation scenarios. To accomplish this, the models used the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC–HMS) version 4.2 to simulate the amount of runoff and streamflow produced from single rain events. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC–RAS) version 5.0 was then used to construct an unsteady-state model that may be used for routing streamflows, mapping areas that may be inundated during floods, and simulating the effects of different measures taken to decrease the effects of floods on people and infrastructure.Both models were calibrated to three historic rainfall events that produced peak streamflows ranging between the 2-year and 10-year flood-frequency recurrence intervals at the USGS streamgage (05464942) on Hoover Creek. The historic rainfall events were calibrated by using data from two USGS streamgages along with surveyed high-water marks from one of the events. The calibrated HEC–HMS model was then used to simulate streamflows from design rainfall events of 24-hour duration ranging from a 20-percent to a 1-percent annual exceedance probability. These simulated streamflows were incorporated into the HEC–RAS model.The unsteady-state HEC–RAS model was calibrated to represent existing conditions within the watershed. HEC–RAS model simulations with the

Flooding simulation of hilly pipeline commisionning process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nan, Zhang [China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation and China University of Petroleum, Beijing (China); Jing, Gong [China University of Petroleum, Beijing (China); Baoli, Zhu [China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation, Beijing (China); Lin, Zheng [CNPC Oil and Gas Control Center, Beijing (China)

2010-07-01

When the construction of a pipeline has been completed, the pipeline flooding is done as part of the pipeline commissioning process. This method consists of filling the empty pipe with water or oil. In a pipeline situated in hilly terrain, air entrapped in the fluid causes problems with the flooding process and it is necessary to discharge the accumulated air to address this issue. The aim of this paper is to provide a model for predicting the location and volume of air pockets in a pipeline. This model was developed based on the fundamentals of mass balance and momentum transfer in multiphase flow and was then applied to a pipeline in China and compared with the SCADA data. Results showed a good match between the model's predictions of hydraulic movement and the real data from SCADA. The two flow model developed can predict hydraulic movement during pipeline flooding in a hilly area and thus it can be used to predict water front location and air pocket movement in the pipe.

Numerical simulation of pore pressure changes in levee under flood conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Stanisz, Jacek; Borecka, Aleksandra; Pilecki, Zenon; Kaczmarczyk, Robert

2017-11-01

The article discusses the potential for using numerical simulation to assess the development of deformation and pore pressure changes in a levee as a result of the increase and decrease of the flood wave. The simulation made in FLAC 2D did not take into account the filter-erosion deformation associated with seepage in the levee. The simulations were carried out for a field experimental storage consisting of two combined levees, which was constructed with the help of homogeneous cohesive materials with different filtration coefficients. Calculated and measured pore pressure changes were analysed at 4 monitoring points. The water level was increased to 4 m in 96 hours and decreased in 120 hours. The characteristics of the calculated and measured pore pressure changes over time were similar. The maximum values of the calculated and measured pore pressure were almost identical. The only differences were the greater delay of the experimental levee response to changes in water level increase compared to the response of the numerical model. These differences were probably related to filtering-erosion effects during seepage in the levee.

A Basis Function Approach to Simulate Storm Surge Events for Coastal Flood Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Leonard, Michael

2017-04-01

Storm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions, especially when it coincides with other flood producing mechanisms, such as extreme rainfall. Therefore, storm surge has always been a research focus in coastal flood risk assessment. Often numerical models have been developed to understand storm surge events for risk assessment (Kumagai et al. 2016; Li et al. 2016; Zhang et al. 2016) (Bastidas et al. 2016; Bilskie et al. 2016; Dalledonne and Mayerle 2016; Haigh et al. 2014; Kodaira et al. 2016; Lapetina and Sheng 2015), and assess how these events may change or evolve in the future (Izuru et al. 2015; Oey and Chou 2016). However, numeric models often require a lot of input information and difficulties arise when there are not sufficient data available (Madsen et al. 2015). Alternative, statistical methods have been used to forecast storm surge based on historical data (Hashemi et al. 2016; Kim et al. 2016) or to examine the long term trend in the change of storm surge events, especially under climate change (Balaguru et al. 2016; Oh et al. 2016; Rueda et al. 2016). In these studies, often the peak of surge events is used, which result in the loss of dynamic information within a tidal cycle or surge event (i.e. a time series of storm surge values). In this study, we propose an alternative basis function (BF) based approach to examine the different attributes (e.g. peak and durations) of storm surge events using historical data. Two simple two-parameter BFs were used: the exponential function and the triangular function. High quality hourly storm surge record from 15 tide gauges around Australia were examined. It was found that there are significantly location and seasonal variability in the peak and duration of storm surge events, which provides additional insights in coastal flood risk. In addition, the simple form of these BFs allows fast simulation of storm surge events and minimises the complexity of joint probability

Flood frequency estimation by national-scale continuous hydrological simulations: an application in Great Britain

Science.gov (United States)

Formetta, Giuseppe; Stewart, Elizabeth; Bell, Victoria; Reynard, Nick

2017-04-01

measured floods with a correlation coefficient that ranges from 0.8 for low return periods to 0.65 for the highest. It is shown that model performance is robust and independent of catchment features such as area and mean annual rainfall. The promising results for Great Britain support the aspiration that continuous simulation from large-scale hydrological models, supported by the increasing availability of global weather, climate and hydrological products, could be used to develop robust methods to help engineers estimate design floods in regions with limited gauge data or affected by environmental change.

Assessment of Remote Sensing Products and Hydrologic Simulation of the 2016 Louisiana Flood in the Amite River Basin

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, S.; Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Braud, D.

2017-12-01

Riverine and coastal flooding are one of the most common environmental hazards that affect millions of people around the world. For example, in August 2016, a slow-moving upper level low-pressure system with a high amount of atmospheric moisture brought heavy rains from August 11 to August 13. The torrential downpours led to widespread flash flooding and river flooding across multiple parishes in Southeast Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi (NWS, 2016; Watson et al., 2017). Precipitation totals as high as 26 inches were recorded during the two-day event. A Louisiana Economic Development report documented that the state of Louisiana suffered more than eight billion dollars in damage from the catastrophic flooding (LED, 2016). According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in New Orleans, the rainfall caused the Amite River, Comite River, Tangipahoa River and Tickfaw River to rise to record-setting levels. Some of the most serious flooding occurred along the Amite River, which runs between Baton Rouge and the nearby city of Denham Springs, and has its headwaters in southwestern Mississippi and drains into Lake Maurepas (Mossa et al., 1997). To develop an understanding of the driving mechanisms that caused the catastrophic flooding a campaign was initiated to collect and rigorously examine all possible remote sensing products in order to derive the flooding extent and depth within the Amite River basin. In addition, a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been developed for the Amite River watershed to simulate runoff from the 2016 Louisiana flood event. The developed and assimilated remote sensing and modeling products will enhance understanding of the hydrological processes within the Amite River basin. This will provide further insight into conceptualization of flood risk across river deltas that are vulnerable to both riverine and coastal flooding. Reference:LED. (2016). The economic impact of the august 2016 floods on the state of Louisiana. Mossa, J., & Mc

Assessment of Urban Pluvial Flood Risk and Efficiency of Adaptation Options Through Simulations – A New Generation of Urban Planning Tools

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Niña Donna Farpale

2017-01-01

the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate......-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood......We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides...

Numerical approach for enhanced oil recovery with surfactant flooding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sadegh Keshtkar

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The remained oil in the reservoir after conventional water-flooding processes, forms a dispersed phase in the form of oil drops which is trapped by capillary forces and is almost about 70% of the original oil in the place (OOIP. To reduce oil residual saturation in laboratory experiments and field projects, surfactant flooding is effective via decreasing the interfacial tension mobility ratio between oil and water phases. Estimation of the role of design variables, like chemical concentrations, partition coefficient and injection rate in different performance quantities, considering a heterogeneous and multiphase oil reservoir is a critical stage for optimal design. Increasing demand for oil production from water-flooded reservoirs has caused an increasing interest in surfactant-polymer (SP and alkali-surfactant-polymer (ASP. Modeling minimizes the risk of high cost of chemicals by improving our insight of process. In the present paper, a surfactant compositional flood model for a three-component (water, petroleum and surfactant, two phase (aqueous and oleic system is studied. A homogeneous, two-dimensional, isothermal reservoir with no free gas or alkali is assumed. The governing equations are in three categories: the continuity equations for the transport of each component, Darcy's equation for the transport of each phase and other auxiliary equations. The equations are solved by finite-differences using a procedure implicit in pressure and explicit in saturation. The validation of the model is achieved through comparing the modeling results with CMG simulators and Buckley–Leverett theory. The results of modeling showed good agreement with CMG results, and the comparison with Buckley–Leverett theory is explained according to different assumptions. After validation of the model, in order to investigate sensitivity analysis, the effects of system variables (partition coefficient, surface tension, oil viscosity and surface injection

Flood Simulation based on ArcGIS in the Ungauged Area from Fugu to Wubao of the middle Yellow River

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Shuangyan; Yan, Yiqi; Jiang, Xinhui

2017-12-01

The Qingliangsigou and Jialuhe in the middle Yellow River are selected as the typical tributaries, history flood data in 1980-2013 and Horton infiltration capacity curve are used to calculate the stable infiltration rate and establish the model of runoff yield and concentration, the parameters are calibrated and applied in the ungauged area from Fugu to Wubao. The study area is divided into 20 units based on ArcGIS, Muskingum method parameters in each unit are calibrated, and typical floods of ungauged area from Fugu to Wubao are simulated. The results show that the simulation effects are good: the average error of peak time is about -0.4h, the error of peak discharge is in the forecasting allowable range, and the deterministic coefficient is 0.66.

Flood hazards for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yen, B.C.

1988-01-01

Flooding hazards for nuclear power plants may be caused by various external geophysical events. In this paper the hydrologic hazards from flash floods, river floods and heavy rain at the plant site are considered. Depending on the mode of analysis, two types of hazard evaluation are identified: 1) design hazard which is the probability of flooding over an expected service period, and 2) operational hazard which deals with real-time forecasting of the probability of flooding of an incoming event. Hazard evaluation techniques using flood frequency analysis can only be used for type 1) design hazard. Evaluation techniques using rainfall-runoff simulation or multi-station correlation can be used for both types of hazard prediction. (orig.)

Flooding and Flood Management

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, K.N.; Fallon, J.D.; Lorenz, D.L.; Stark, J.R.; Menard, Jason; Easter, K.W.; Perry, Jim

2011-01-01

Floods result in great human disasters globally and nationally, causing an average of $4 billion of damages each year in the United States. Minnesota has its share of floods and flood damages, and the state has awarded nearly $278 million to local units of government for flood mitigation projects through its Flood Hazard Mitigation Grant Program. Since 1995, flood mitigation in the Red River Valley has exceeded $146 million. Considerable local and state funding has been provided to manage and mitigate problems of excess stormwater in urban areas, flooding of farmlands, and flood damages at road crossings. The cumulative costs involved with floods and flood mitigation in Minnesota are not known precisely, but it is safe to conclude that flood mitigation is a costly business. This chapter begins with a description of floods in Minneosta to provide examples and contrasts across the state. Background material is presented to provide a basic understanding of floods and flood processes, predication, and management and mitigation. Methods of analyzing and characterizing floods are presented because they affect how we respond to flooding and can influence relevant practices. The understanding and perceptions of floods and flooding commonly differ among those who work in flood forecasting, flood protection, or water resource mamnagement and citizens and businesses affected by floods. These differences can become magnified following a major flood, pointing to the need for better understanding of flooding as well as common language to describe flood risks and the uncertainty associated with determining such risks. Expectations of accurate and timely flood forecasts and our ability to control floods do not always match reality. Striving for clarity is important in formulating policies that can help avoid recurring flood damages and costs.

Investigation of water and CO2 (carbon dioxide) flooding using micro-CT (micro-computed tomography) images of Berea sandstone core using finite element simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunde, Akshay C.; Bera, Bijoyendra; Mitra, Sushanta K.

2010-01-01

The present study reports a numerical investigation of water and CO 2 (carbon dioxide) flooding at the pore scale of a porous medium. We use high resolution micro-computed tomography (micro-CT) images of Berea sandstone core to obtain the pore geometry. The numerical solution used for the simulation was carried out by a finite element based software package. Level Set method is used to determine the position of the interface between two immiscible fluids when oil is displaced by water and CO 2 , respectively. The present formulation is validated against single-phase flow through the porous structure. It is found that, fluid flow inside the pore space takes place through preferential inlet and outlet pores. For two-phase flow, it is observed that continuous displacement of oil occurs during water flooding but CO 2 is able to displace oil at certain locations in the pores. Also, the separation of flow front is observed in the case of CO 2 flooding. A quantitative comparison of the results obtained in two types of flooding simulations suggests that water displaces a higher volume of oil than CO 2 in the time period for which the simulations are performed.

Extreme Mississippi River Floods in the Late Holocene: Reconstructions and Simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz, S. E.; Giosan, L.; Donnelly, J. P.; Dee, S.

2016-12-01

Extreme flooding of the Mississippi River is costly in both economic and social terms. Despite ambitious engineering projects conceived in the early 20th century to mitigate damage from extreme floods, economic losses due to flooding have increased over recent years. Forecasting extreme flood occurrence over seasonal or longer time-scales remains a major challenge - especially in light of shifts in hydroclimatic conditions expected in response to continued greenhouse forcing. Here, we present findings from a series of paleoflood records that span the late Holocene derived from laminated sediments deposited in abandoned channels of the Mississippi River. These sedimentary archives record individual overbank floods as unique events beds with upward fining that we identify using grain-size analysis, bulk geochemistry, and radiography. We use sedimentological characteristics to reconstruct flood magnitude by calibrating our records against instrumental streamflow data from nearby gauging stations. We also use the Last Millennium Experiments of the Community Earth System Model (CESM-LME) and historical reanalysis data to examine the state of climate system around river discharge extremes. Our paleo-flood records exhibit strong non-stationarities in flood frequency and magnitude that are associated with fluctuations in the frequency of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), because the warm ENSO phase is associated with increased surface water storage of the lower Mississippi basin that leads to enhanced runoff delivery to the main channel. We also show that the early 20th century was a period of anomalously high flood frequency and magnitude due to the combined effects of river engineering and natural climate variability. Our findings imply that flood risk along the lower Mississippi River is tightly coupled to the frequency of ENSO, highlighting the need for robust projections of ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.

Reconstruction of the 1945 Wieringermeer Flood

Science.gov (United States)

Hoes, O. A. C.; Hut, R. W.; van de Giesen, N. C.; Boomgaard, M.

2013-03-01

The present state-of-the-art in flood risk assessment focuses on breach models, flood propagation models, and economic modelling of flood damage. However, models need to be validated with real data to avoid erroneous conclusions. Such reference data can either be historic data, or can be obtained from controlled experiments. The inundation of the Wieringermeer polder in the Netherlands in April 1945 is one of the few examples for which sufficient historical information is available. The objective of this article is to compare the flood simulation with flood data from 1945. The context, the breach growth process and the flood propagation are explained. Key findings for current flood risk management addresses the importance of the drainage canal network during the inundation of a polder, and the uncertainty that follows from not knowing the breach growth parameters. This case study shows that historical floods provide valuable data for the validation of models and reveal lessons that are applicable in current day flood risk management.

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schellen, H.L.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Blades, N.

2014-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.; Blades, N.; Mahdavi, A.; Mertens, B.

2013-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

Experiences on dynamic simulation software in chemical engineering education

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Komulainen, Tiina M.; Enemark-rasmussen, Rasmus; Sin, Gürkan

2012-01-01

Commercial process simulators are increasing interest in the chemical engineer education. In this paper, the use of commercial dynamic simulation software, D-SPICE® and K-Spice®, for three different chemical engineering courses is described and discussed. The courses cover the following topics...

Characterization of flood and precipitation events in Southwestern Germany and stochastic simulation of extreme precipitation (Project FLORIS-SV)

Science.gov (United States)

Florian, Ehmele; Michael, Kunz

2016-04-01

Several major flood events occurred in Germany in the past 15-20 years especially in the eastern parts along the rivers Elbe and Danube. Examples include the major floods of 2002 and 2013 with an estimated loss of about 2 billion Euros each. The last major flood events in the State of Baden-Württemberg in southwest Germany occurred in the years 1978 and 1993/1994 along the rivers Rhine and Neckar with an estimated total loss of about 150 million Euros (converted) each. Flood hazard originates from a combination of different meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic processes. Currently there is no defined methodology available for evaluating and quantifying the flood hazard and related risk for larger areas or whole river catchments instead of single gauges. In order to estimate the probable maximum loss for higher return periods (e.g. 200 years, PML200), a stochastic model approach is designed since observational data are limited in time and space. In our approach, precipitation is linearly composed of three elements: background precipitation, orographically-induces precipitation, and a convectively-driven part. We use linear theory of orographic precipitation formation for the stochastic precipitation model (SPM), which is based on fundamental statistics of relevant atmospheric variables. For an adequate number of historic flood events, the corresponding atmospheric conditions and parameters are determined in order to calculate a probability density function (pdf) for each variable. This method involves all theoretically possible scenarios which may not have happened, yet. This work is part of the FLORIS-SV (FLOod RISk Sparkassen Versicherung) project and establishes the first step of a complete modelling chain of the flood risk. On the basis of the generated stochastic precipitation event set, hydrological and hydraulic simulations will be performed to estimate discharge and water level. The resulting stochastic flood event set will be used to quantify the

Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nobuaki Kimura

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

Development of a Persistent Chemical Agent Simulator System (PCASS)

Science.gov (United States)

Mcginness, W. G.

1983-01-01

The development of a persistent chemical agent simulation system (PCASS) is described. This PCASS is to be used for the military training of troops to simulate actual chemical warfare. The purpose of this system is to facilitate in the determination of chemical contamination and effectiveness of decontamination for training purposes. The fluorescent tracer employed has no daylight activation, but yet is easily removed with a decontaminate solution or water and surfactants. Also employed is a time delayed color developing system. When an individual is subjected to the PCASS and does not decontaminate adequately, red blotches or red coloration will develop as a function of time and temperature. The intent of this is to simulate the delayed chemical reaction of mustard contaminates.

Using cheminformatics to find simulants for chemical warfare agents

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lavoie, J.; Srinivasan, Sree [Molecular Sciences and Engineering Team, U.S. Army Natick Soldier Research, Development and Engineering Center, 15 Kansas Street, Natick, MA 01760 (United States); Nagarajan, R., E-mail: Ramanathan.Nagarajan@us.army.mil [Molecular Sciences and Engineering Team, U.S. Army Natick Soldier Research, Development and Engineering Center, 15 Kansas Street, Natick, MA 01760 (United States)

2011-10-30

Highlights: {yields} Summary of chemical warfare agent (CWA) simulants in current use. {yields} Application of method of molecular similarity to CWA and simulants. {yields} Quantitative metric for CWA-simulant similarity. {yields} Rank ordering of simulants in current use. {yields} Potential of method to identify simulants for emerging agents. - Abstract: Direct experimentation with chemical warfare agents (CWA) to study important problems such as their permeation across protective barrier materials, decontamination of equipment and facilities, or the environmental transport and fate of CWAs is not feasible because of the obvious toxicity of the CWAs and associated restrictions on their laboratory use. The common practice is to use 'simulants,' namely, analogous chemicals that closely resemble the CWAs but are less toxic, with the expectation that the results attained for simulants can be correlated to how the CWAs would perform. Simulants have been traditionally chosen by experts, by means of intuition, using similarity in one or more physical properties (such as vapor pressure or aqueous solubility) or in the molecular structural features (such as functional groups) between the stimulant and the CWA. This work is designed to automate the simulant identification process backed by quantitative metrics, by means of chemical similarity search software routinely used in pharmaceutical drug discovery. The question addressed here is: By the metrics of such software, how similar are traditional simulants to CWAs? That is, what is the numerical 'distance' between each CWA and its customary simulants in the quantitative space of molecular descriptors? The answers show promise for finding close but less toxic simulants for the ever-increasing numbers of CWAs objectively and fast.

Using cheminformatics to find simulants for chemical warfare agents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lavoie, J.; Srinivasan, Sree; Nagarajan, R.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Summary of chemical warfare agent (CWA) simulants in current use. → Application of method of molecular similarity to CWA and simulants. → Quantitative metric for CWA-simulant similarity. → Rank ordering of simulants in current use. → Potential of method to identify simulants for emerging agents. - Abstract: Direct experimentation with chemical warfare agents (CWA) to study important problems such as their permeation across protective barrier materials, decontamination of equipment and facilities, or the environmental transport and fate of CWAs is not feasible because of the obvious toxicity of the CWAs and associated restrictions on their laboratory use. The common practice is to use 'simulants,' namely, analogous chemicals that closely resemble the CWAs but are less toxic, with the expectation that the results attained for simulants can be correlated to how the CWAs would perform. Simulants have been traditionally chosen by experts, by means of intuition, using similarity in one or more physical properties (such as vapor pressure or aqueous solubility) or in the molecular structural features (such as functional groups) between the stimulant and the CWA. This work is designed to automate the simulant identification process backed by quantitative metrics, by means of chemical similarity search software routinely used in pharmaceutical drug discovery. The question addressed here is: By the metrics of such software, how similar are traditional simulants to CWAs? That is, what is the numerical 'distance' between each CWA and its customary simulants in the quantitative space of molecular descriptors? The answers show promise for finding close but less toxic simulants for the ever-increasing numbers of CWAs objectively and fast.

Validation of a Global Hydrodynamic Flood Inundation Model

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, P. D.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Alfieri, L.; Neal, J. C.

2014-12-01

In this work we present first validation results for a hyper-resolution global flood inundation model. We use a true hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) to simulate flood inundation at 1km resolution globally and then use downscaling algorithms to determine flood extent and depth at 90m spatial resolution. Terrain data are taken from a custom version of the SRTM data set that has been processed specifically for hydrodynamic modelling. Return periods of flood flows along the entire global river network are determined using: (1) empirical relationships between catchment characteristics and index flood magnitude in different hydroclimatic zones derived from global runoff data; and (2) an index flood growth curve, also empirically derived. Bankful return period flow is then used to set channel width and depth, and flood defence impacts are modelled using empirical relationships between GDP, urbanization and defence standard of protection. The results of these simulations are global flood hazard maps for a number of different return period events from 1 in 5 to 1 in 1000 years. We compare these predictions to flood hazard maps developed by national government agencies in the UK and Germany using similar methods but employing detailed local data, and to observed flood extent at a number of sites including St. Louis, USA and Bangkok in Thailand. Results show that global flood hazard models can have considerable skill given careful treatment to overcome errors in the publicly available data that are used as their input.

Flooding in counter-current two-phase flow

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ragland, W.A.; Ganic, E.N.

1982-01-01

Flooding is a phenomenon which is best described as the transition from counter-current to co-current flow. Early notice was taken of this phenomenon in the chemical engineering industry. Flooding also plays an important role in the field of two-phase heat transfer since it is a limit for many systems involving counter-current flow. Practical applications of flooding limited processes include wickless thermosyphons and the emergency core cooling system (ECCS) of pressurized water nuclear reactors. The phenomenon of flooding also is involved in the behavior of nuclear reactor core materials during severe accident conditions where flooding is one of the mechanisms governing the motion of the molten fuel pin cladding

Flooding in counter-current two-phase flow

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ragland, W.A.; Ganic, E.N.

1982-01-01

Flooding is a phenomenon which is best described as the transition from counter-current to co-current flow. Early notice was taken of this phenomenon in the chemical engineering industry. Flooding also plays an important role in the field of two-phase heat transfer since it is a limit for many systems involving counter-current flow. Practical applications of flooding limited processes include wickless thermosyphons and the emergency core cooling system (ECCS) of pressurized water nuclear reactors. The phenomenon of flooding also is involved in the behavior of nuclear reactor core materials during severe accident conditions where flooding is one of the mechanisms governing the motion of the molten fuel pin cladding.

Flood early warning system : Design, implementation and computational modules

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krzhizhanovskaya, V.V.; Shirshov, G.S.; Melnikova, N.B.; Belleman, R.G.; Rusadi, F.I.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.; Gouldby, B.P.; Lhomme, J.; Balis, B.; Bubak, M.; Pyayt, A.L.; Mokhov, I.I.; Ozhigin, A.V.; Lang, B.; Meijer, R.J.

2011-01-01

We present a prototype of the flood early warning system (EWS) developed within the UrbanFlood FP7 project. The system monitors sensor networks installed in flood defenses (dikes, dams, embankments, etc.), detects sensor signal abnormalities, calculates dike failure probability, and simulates

Impact of urbanization on flood of Shigu creek in Dongguan city

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Luying; Chen, Yangbo; Zhang, Tao

2018-06-01

Shigu creek is a highly urbanized small watershed in Dongguan City. Due to rapid urbanization, quick flood response has been observed, which posted great threat to the flood security of Dongguan City. To evaluate the impact of urbanization on the flood changes of Shigu creek is very important for the flood mitigation of Shigu creek, which will provide insight for flood planners and managers for if to build a larger flood mitigation system. In this paper, the Land cover/use changes of Shigu creek from 1987-2015 induced by urbanization was first extracted from a local database, then, the Liuxihe model, a physically based distributed hydrological model, is employed to simulate the flood processes impacted by urbanization. Precipitation of 3 storms was used for flood processes simulation. The results show that the runoff coefficient and peak flow have increased sharply.

River flood risk in Jakarta under scenarios of future change

Science.gov (United States)

Budiyono, Yus; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Tollenaar, Daniel; Ward, Philip J.

2016-03-01

Given the increasing impacts of flooding in Jakarta, methods for assessing current and future flood risk are required. In this paper, we use the Damagescanner-Jakarta risk model to project changes in future river flood risk under scenarios of climate change, land subsidence, and land use change. Damagescanner-Jakarta is a simple flood risk model that estimates flood risk in terms of annual expected damage, based on input maps of flood hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. We estimate baseline flood risk at USD 186 million p.a. Combining all future scenarios, we simulate a median increase in risk of +180 % by 2030. The single driver with the largest contribution to that increase is land subsidence (+126 %). We simulated the impacts of climate change by combining two scenarios of sea level rise with simulations of changes in 1-day extreme precipitation totals from five global climate models (GCMs) forced by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results are highly uncertain; the median change in risk due to climate change alone by 2030 is a decrease by -46 %, but we simulate an increase in risk under 12 of the 40 GCM-RCP-sea level rise combinations. Hence, we developed probabilistic risk scenarios to account for this uncertainty. If land use change by 2030 takes places according to the official Jakarta Spatial Plan 2030, risk could be reduced by 12 %. However, if land use change in the future continues at the same rate as the last 30 years, large increases in flood risk will take place. Finally, we discuss the relevance of the results for flood risk management in Jakarta.

Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

Science.gov (United States)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-07-01

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

Global Climate Model Simulated Hydrologic Droughts and Floods in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed

Science.gov (United States)

Vieira, M. J. F.; Stadnyk, T. A.; Koenig, K. A.

2014-12-01

There is uncertainty surrounding the duration, magnitude and frequency of historical hydroclimatic extremes such as hydrologic droughts and floods prior to the observed record. In regions where paleoclimatic studies are less reliable, Global Climate Models (GCMs) can provide useful information about past hydroclimatic conditions. This study evaluates the use of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) GCMs to enhance the understanding of historical droughts and floods across the Canadian Prairie region in the Nelson-Churchill Watershed (NCW). The NCW is approximately 1.4 million km2 in size and drains into Hudson Bay in Northern Manitoba, Canada. One hundred years of observed hydrologic records show extended dry and wet periods in this region; however paleoclimatic studies suggest that longer, more severe droughts have occurred in the past. In Manitoba, where hydropower is the primary source of electricity, droughts are of particular interest as they are important for future resource planning. Twenty-three GCMs with daily runoff are evaluated using 16 metrics for skill in reproducing historic annual runoff patterns. A common 56-year historic period of 1950-2005 is used for this evaluation to capture wet and dry periods. GCM runoff is then routed at a grid resolution of 0.25° using the WATFLOOD hydrological model storage-routing algorithm to develop streamflow scenarios. Reservoir operation is naturalized and a consistent temperature scenario is used to determine ice-on and ice-off conditions. These streamflow simulations are compared with the historic record to remove bias using quantile mapping of empirical distribution functions. GCM runoff data from pre-industrial and future projection experiments are also bias corrected to obtain extended streamflow simulations. GCM streamflow simulations of more than 650 years include a stationary (pre-industrial) period and future periods forced by radiative forcing scenarios. Quantile mapping adjusts for magnitude

Simulation of Industrial Wastewater Treatment from the Suspended Impurities into the Flooded Waste Mining Workings

Science.gov (United States)

Bondareva, L.; Zakharov, Yu; Goudov, A.

2017-04-01

The paper is dedicated to the mathematical model of slurry wastewater treatment and disposal in a flooded mine working. The goal of the research is to develop and analyze the mathematical model of suspended impurities flow and distribution. Impurity sedimentation model is under consideration. Due to the sediment compaction problem solution domain can be modified. The model allows making a forecast whether volley emission is possible. Numerical simulation results for “Kolchuginskaya” coal mine presented. Impurity concentration diagrams in outflow corresponding to the real full-scale data obtained. Safely operation time mine workings like a wastewater treatment facility are estimated. The carried out calculations demonstrate that the method of industrial wastewater treatment in flooded waste mine workings can be put into practice but it is very important to observe all the processes going on to avoid volley emission of accumulated impurities.

Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

2008-01-01

Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

Assessment of flood mitigation through riparian detention in ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

19

changing climate – a case study. 2. 3. Kwan Tun ... expected to mitigate flood damage in downstream urban areas. In this study ... recognized as the most vulnerable region in respect of natural disasters. In the main ..... An integrated numerical model was developed in this study for flooding simulation to realize. 21 the flood ...

Modeling of Flood Risk for the Continental United States

Science.gov (United States)

Lohmann, D.; Li, S.; Katz, B.; Goteti, G.; Kaheil, Y. H.; Vojjala, R.

2011-12-01

The science of catastrophic risk modeling helps people to understand the physical and financial implications of natural catastrophes (hurricanes, flood, earthquakes, etc.), terrorism, and the risks associated with changes in life expectancy. As such it depends on simulation techniques that integrate multiple disciplines such as meteorology, hydrology, structural engineering, statistics, computer science, financial engineering, actuarial science, and more in virtually every field of technology. In this talk we will explain the techniques and underlying assumptions of building the RMS US flood risk model. We especially will pay attention to correlation (spatial and temporal), simulation and uncertainty in each of the various components in the development process. Recent extreme floods (e.g. US Midwest flood 2008, US Northeast flood, 2010) have increased the concern of flood risk. Consequently, there are growing needs to adequately assess the flood risk. The RMS flood hazard model is mainly comprised of three major components. (1) Stochastic precipitation simulation module based on a Monte-Carlo analogue technique, which is capable of producing correlated rainfall events for the continental US. (2) Rainfall-runoff and routing module. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was developed to properly assess the antecedent conditions, determine the saturation area and runoff. The runoff is further routed downstream along the rivers by a routing model. Combined with the precipitation model, it allows us to correlate the streamflow and hence flooding from different rivers, as well as low and high return-periods across the continental US. (3) Flood inundation module. It transforms the discharge (output from the flow routing) into water level, which is further combined with a two-dimensional off-floodplain inundation model to produce comprehensive flood hazard map. The performance of the model is demonstrated by comparing to the observation and published data. Output from

Integrating a Typhoon Event Database with an Optimal Flood Operation Model on the Real-Time Flood Control of the Tseng-Wen Reservoir

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Y. W.; Chang, L. C.

2012-04-01

Typhoons which normally bring a great amount of precipitation are the primary natural hazard in Taiwan during flooding season. Because the plentiful rainfall quantities brought by typhoons are normally stored for the usage of the next draught period, the determination of release strategies for flood operation of reservoirs which is required to simultaneously consider not only the impact of reservoir safety and the flooding damage in plain area but also for the water resource stored in the reservoir after typhoon becomes important. This study proposes a two-steps study process. First, this study develop an optimal flood operation model (OFOM) for the planning of flood control and also applies the OFOM on Tseng-wun reservoir and the downstream plain related to the reservoir. Second, integrating a typhoon event database with the OFOM mentioned above makes the proposed planning model have ability to deal with a real-time flood control problem and names as real-time flood operation model (RTFOM). Three conditions are considered in the proposed models, OFOM and RTFOM, include the safety of the reservoir itself, the reservoir storage after typhoons and the impact of flooding in the plain area. Besides, the flood operation guideline announced by government is also considered in the proposed models. The these conditions and the guideline can be formed as an optimization problem which is solved by the genetic algorithm (GA) in this study. Furthermore, a distributed runoff model, kinematic-wave geomorphic instantaneous unit hydrograph (KW-GIUH), and a river flow simulation model, HEC-RAS, are used to simulate the river water level of Tseng-wun basin in the plain area and the simulated level is shown as an index of the impact of flooding. Because the simulated levels are required to re-calculate iteratively in the optimization model, applying a recursive artificial neural network (recursive ANN) instead of the HEC-RAS model can significantly reduce the computational burden of

Top flooding modeling with MAAP4 code

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brunet-Thibault, E.; Marguet, S.

2006-01-01

An engineering top flooding model was developed in MAAP4.04d.4, the severe accident code used in EDF, to simulate the thermal-hydraulic phenomena that should take place if emergency core cooling (ECC) water was injected in hot leg during quenching. In the framework of the ISTC (International Science and Technology Centre), a top flooding test was proposed in the PARAMETER facility (Podolsk, Russia). The MAAP calculation of the PARAMETER top flooding test is presented in this paper. A comparison between top and bottom flooding was made on the bundle test geometry. According to this study, top flooding appears to cool quickly and effectively the upper plenum internals. (author)

Foliar application of molybdenum reduces yield loss and pre-harvest sprouting in japonica rice seed subjected to simulated flooding during seed development and maturation

OpenAIRE

Tejakhod, Sujittra; Hammond, John P.; Ellis, Richard H.

2018-01-01

Flooding damages rice crops and its incidence is increasing. Foliar spray applications of molybdenum (100, 600 or 3000 mg Mo L-1), abscisic acid (ABA, 50 μM), or deionised water (control) were made to pot-grown plants of the Japonica rice cv. Gleva at flag leaf appearance to determine their effects on seed yield and pre-harvest sprouting after flooding. Plants were submerged , to simulate flooding, for four days from 20 or 30 days after anthesis (DAA). Seed yield per plant, seed weight, and p...

Comparison of 2D numerical models for river flood hazard assessment: simulation of the Secchia River flood in January, 2014

Science.gov (United States)

Shustikova, Iuliia; Domeneghetti, Alessio; Neal, Jeffrey; Bates, Paul; Castellarin, Attilio

2017-04-01

that would be efficient for simulating flooding scenarios for large and very large floodplains. This research aims at contributing to the reduction of uncertainties and limitations in hazard and risk assessment.

Uncertainty Analysis of A Flood Risk Mapping Procedure Applied In Urban Areas

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, J.; Uhrich, S.; Bormann, H.; Diekkrüger, B.

In the framework of IRMA-Sponge program the presented study was part of the joint research project FRHYMAP (flood risk and hydrological mapping). A simple con- ceptual flooding model (FLOODMAP) has been developed to simulate flooded areas besides rivers within cities. FLOODMAP requires a minimum of input data (digital el- evation model (DEM), river line, water level plain) and parameters and calculates the flood extent as well as the spatial distribution of flood depths. of course the simulated model results are affected by errors and uncertainties. Possible sources of uncertain- ties are the model structure, model parameters and input data. Thus after the model validation (comparison of simulated water to observed extent, taken from airborne pictures) the uncertainty of the essential input data set (digital elevation model) was analysed. Monte Carlo simulations were performed to assess the effect of uncertain- ties concerning the statistics of DEM quality and to derive flooding probabilities from the set of simulations. The questions concerning a minimum resolution of a DEM re- quired for flood simulation and concerning the best aggregation procedure of a given DEM was answered by comparing the results obtained using all available standard GIS aggregation procedures. Seven different aggregation procedures were applied to high resolution DEMs (1-2m) in three cities (Bonn, Cologne, Luxembourg). Basing on this analysis the effect of 'uncertain' DEM data was estimated and compared with other sources of uncertainties. Especially socio-economic information and monetary transfer functions required for a damage risk analysis show a high uncertainty. There- fore this study helps to analyse the weak points of the flood risk and damage risk assessment procedure.

A Grid-Based Cyber Infrastructure for High Performance Chemical Dynamics Simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Khadka Prashant

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Chemical dynamics simulation is an effective means to study atomic level motions of molecules, collections of molecules, liquids, surfaces, interfaces of materials, and chemical reactions. To make chemical dynamics simulations globally accessible to a broad range of users, recently a cyber infrastructure was developed that provides an online portal to VENUS, a popular chemical dynamics simulation program package, to allow people to submit simulation jobs that will be executed on the web server machine. In this paper, we report new developments of the cyber infrastructure for the improvement of its quality of service by dispatching the submitted simulations jobs from the web server machine onto a cluster of workstations for execution, and by adding an animation tool, which is optimized for animating the simulation results. The separation of the server machine from the simulation-running machine improves the service quality by increasing the capacity to serve more requests simultaneously with even reduced web response time, and allows the execution of large scale, time-consuming simulation jobs on the powerful workstation cluster. With the addition of an animation tool, the cyber infrastructure automatically converts, upon the selection of the user, some simulation results into an animation file that can be viewed on usual web browsers without requiring installation of any special software on the user computer. Since animation is essential for understanding the results of chemical dynamics simulations, this animation capacity provides a better way for understanding simulation details of the chemical dynamics. By combining computing resources at locations under different administrative controls, this cyber infrastructure constitutes a grid environment providing physically and administratively distributed functionalities through a single easy-to-use online portal

2 Dimensional Hydrodynamic Flood Routing Analysis on Flood Forecasting Modelling for Kelantan River Basin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Azad Wan Hazdy

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Flood disaster occurs quite frequently in Malaysia and has been categorized as the most threatening natural disaster compared to landslides, hurricanes, tsunami, haze and others. A study by Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID show that 9% of land areas in Malaysia are prone to flood which may affect approximately 4.9 million of the population. 2 Dimensional floods routing modelling demonstrate is turning out to be broadly utilized for flood plain display and is an extremely viable device for evaluating flood. Flood propagations can be better understood by simulating the flow and water level by using hydrodynamic modelling. The hydrodynamic flood routing can be recognized by the spatial complexity of the schematization such as 1D model and 2D model. It was found that most of available hydrological models for flood forecasting are more focus on short duration as compared to long duration hydrological model using the Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM. The aim of this paper is to discuss preliminary findings on development of flood forecasting model using Probabilistic Distribution Moisture Model (PDM for Kelantan river basin. Among the findings discuss in this paper includes preliminary calibrated PDM model, which performed reasonably for the Dec 2014, but underestimated the peak flows. Apart from that, this paper also discusses findings on Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD and flood plain analysis. Flood forecasting is the complex process that begins with an understanding of the geographical makeup of the catchment and knowledge of the preferential regions of heavy rainfall and flood behaviour for the area of responsibility. Therefore, to decreases the uncertainty in the model output, so it is important to increase the complexity of the model.

Simulation of dambreak flood with erosion effects (CEA R and D Project 718-G-641)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ko, P.Y.

1990-01-01

Most existing mathematical models applicable to dambreak analysis assume the river channel to be rigid. In reality, during the passage of dambreak waves, the banks and the bed of the valley will be eroded by the flood waves, affecting flood levels. A study was carried out to produce a numerical model suitable for use on a personal computer for the simulation of the dambreak wave along erosion-prone channels. The following features were determined to be essential: nonuniform and non-equilibrium transport of graded sediment should be considered; the user should be able to use the sediment transport function of choice; channel roughness should reflect the change of the river channel; armoring of the channel bed should be included; and bank erosion should be considered. Details are given of the mathematical analysis of dam failure, dynamic flood routing, and sediment routing. Preliminary testing showed that the model is usable to perform routing of a dambreak wave along an erodible river channel. Additional options may be added which include various hydraulic structures, description of debris flow, etc. With the inclusion of a width adjustment algorithm, it is able to estimate the vulnerability of river banks, which will be important for civil protection agencies in the preparation of emergency preparedness plans. 23 refs., 7 figs

Localized reactive flow in carbonate rocks: Core-flood experiments and network simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Haoyue; Bernabé, Yves; Mok, Ulrich; Evans, Brian

2016-11-01

We conducted four core-flood experiments on samples of a micritic, reef limestone from Abu Dhabi under conditions of constant flow rate. The pore fluid was water in equilibrium with CO2, which, because of its lowered pH, is chemically reactive with the limestone. Flow rates were between 0.03 and 0.1 mL/min. The difference between up and downstream pore pressures dropped to final values ≪1 MPa over periods of 3-18 h. Scanning electron microscope and microtomography imaging of the starting material showed that the limestone is mostly calcite and lacks connected macroporosity and that the prevailing pores are few microns large. During each experiment, a wormhole formed by localized dissolution, an observation consistent with the decreases in pressure head between the up and downstream reservoirs. Moreover, we numerically modeled the changes in permeability during the experiments. We devised a network approach that separated the pore space into competing subnetworks of pipes. Thus, the problem was framed as a competition of flow of the reactive fluid among the adversary subnetworks. The precondition for localization within certain time is that the leading subnetwork rapidly becomes more transmissible than its competitors. This novel model successfully simulated features of the shape of the wormhole as it grew from few to about 100 µm, matched the pressure history patterns, and yielded the correct order of magnitude of the breakthrough time. Finally, we systematically studied the impact of changing the statistical parameters of the subnetworks. Larger mean radius and spatial correlation of the leading subnetwork led to faster localization.

Flooding Capability for River-based Scenarios

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Smith, Curtis L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Prescott, Steven [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, Emerald [Idaho State Univ., Pocatello, ID (United States); Calhoun, Donna [Boise State Univ., ID (United States); Sampath, Ramprasad [Centroid Labs., Los Angeles, CA (United States); Anderson, S. Danielle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Casteneda, Cody [Boise State Univ., ID (United States)

2015-10-01

This report describes the initial investigation into modeling and simulation tools for application of riverine flooding representation as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway external hazards evaluations. The report provides examples of different flooding conditions and scenarios that could impact river and watershed systems. Both 2D and 3D modeling approaches are described.

Assessment of mean annual flood damage using simple hydraulic modeling and Monte Carlo simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Oubennaceur, K.; Agili, H.; Chokmani, K.; Poulin, J.; Marceau, P.

2016-12-01

Floods are the most frequent and the most damaging natural disaster in Canada. The issue of assessing and managing the risk related to this disaster has become increasingly crucial for both local and national authorities. Brigham, a municipality located in southern Quebec Province, is one of the heavily affected regions by this disaster because of frequent overflows of the Yamaska River reaching two to three times per year. Since Irene Hurricane which struck the region in 2011, causing considerable socio-economic damage, the implementation of mitigation measures has become a major priority for this municipality. To do this, a preliminary study to evaluate the risk to which this region is exposed is essential. Conventionally, approaches only based on the characterization of the hazard (e.g. floodplains extensive, flood depth) are generally adopted to study the risk of flooding. In order to improve the knowledge of this risk, a Monte Carlo simulation approach combining information on the hazard with vulnerability-related aspects has been developed. This approach integrates three main components: (1) hydrologic modelling aiming to establish a probability-discharge function which associate each measured discharge to its probability of occurrence (2) hydraulic modeling that aims to establish the relationship between the discharge and the water stage at each building (3) damage study that aims to assess the buildings damage using damage functions. The damage is estimated according to the water depth defined as the difference between the water level and the elevation of the building's first floor. The application of the proposed approach allows estimating the annual average cost of damage caused by floods on buildings. The obtained results will be useful for authorities to support their decisions on risk management and prevention against this disaster.

Evaluating the use of different precipitation datasets in simulating a flood event

Science.gov (United States)

Akyurek, Z.; Ozkaya, A.

2016-12-01

Floods caused by convective storms in mountainous regions are sensitive to the temporal and spatial variability of rainfall. Space-time estimates of rainfall from weather radar, satellites and numerical weather prediction models can be a remedy to represent pattern of the rainfall with some inaccuracy. However, there is a strong need for evaluation of the performance and limitations of these estimates in hydrology. This study aims to provide a comparison of gauge, radar, satellite (Hydro-Estimator (HE)) and numerical weather prediciton model (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)) precipitation datasets during an extreme flood event (22.11.2014) lasting 40 hours in Samsun-Turkey. For this study, hourly rainfall data from 13 ground observation stations were used in the analyses. This event having a peak discharge of 541 m3/sec created flooding at the downstream of Terme Basin. Comparisons were performed in two parts. First the analysis were performed in areal and point based manner. Secondly, a semi-distributed hydrological model was used to assess the accuracy of the rainfall datasets to simulate river flows for the flood event. Kalman Filtering was used in the bias correction of radar rainfall data compared to gauge measurements. Radar, gauge, corrected radar, HE and WRF rainfall data were used as model inputs. Generally, the HE product underestimates the cumulative rainfall amounts in all stations, radar data underestimates the results in cumulative sense but keeps the consistency in the results. On the other hand, almost all stations in WRF mean statistics computations have better results compared to the HE product but worse than the radar dataset. Results in point comparisons indicated that, trend of the rainfall is captured by the radar rainfall estimation well but radar underestimates the maximum values. According to cumulative gauge value, radar underestimated the cumulative rainfall amount by % 32. Contrary to other datasets, the bias of WRF is positive

Boosting flood warning schemes with fast emulator of detailed hydrodynamic models

Science.gov (United States)

Bellos, V.; Carbajal, J. P.; Leitao, J. P.

2017-12-01

Floods are among the most destructive catastrophic events and their frequency has incremented over the last decades. To reduce flood impact and risks, flood warning schemes are installed in flood prone areas. Frequently, these schemes are based on numerical models which quickly provide predictions of water levels and other relevant observables. However, the high complexity of flood wave propagation in the real world and the need of accurate predictions in urban environments or in floodplains hinders the use of detailed simulators. This sets the difficulty, we need fast predictions that meet the accuracy requirements. Most physics based detailed simulators although accurate, will not fulfill the speed demand. Even if High Performance Computing techniques are used (the magnitude of required simulation time is minutes/hours). As a consequence, most flood warning schemes are based in coarse ad-hoc approximations that cannot take advantage a detailed hydrodynamic simulation. In this work, we present a methodology for developing a flood warning scheme using an Gaussian Processes based emulator of a detailed hydrodynamic model. The methodology consists of two main stages: 1) offline stage to build the emulator; 2) online stage using the emulator to predict and generate warnings. The offline stage consists of the following steps: a) definition of the critical sites of the area under study, and the specification of the observables to predict at those sites, e.g. water depth, flow velocity, etc.; b) generation of a detailed simulation dataset to train the emulator; c) calibration of the required parameters (if measurements are available). The online stage is carried on using the emulator to predict the relevant observables quickly, and the detailed simulator is used in parallel to verify key predictions of the emulator. The speed gain given by the emulator allows also to quantify uncertainty in predictions using ensemble methods. The above methodology is applied in real

Process/Equipment Co-Simulation on Syngas Chemical Looping Process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zeng, Liang; Zhou, Qiang; Fan, Liang-Shih

2012-09-30

The chemical looping strategy for fossil energy applications promises to achieve an efficient energy conversion system for electricity, liquid fuels, hydrogen and/or chemicals generation, while economically separate CO{sub 2} by looping reaction design in the process. Chemical looping particle performance, looping reactor engineering, and process design and applications are the key drivers to the success of chemical looping process development. In order to better understand and further scale up the chemical looping process, issues such as cost, time, measurement, safety, and other uncertainties need to be examined. To address these uncertainties, advanced reaction/reactor modeling and process simulation are highly desired and the modeling efforts can accelerate the chemical looping technology development, reduce the pilot-scale facility design time and operating campaigns, as well as reduce the cost and technical risks. The purpose of this work is thus to conduct multiscale modeling and simulations on the key aspects of chemical looping technology, including particle reaction kinetics, reactor design and operation, and process synthesis and optimization.

Can we predict the next urban flood?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorndahl, Søren; Nielsen, Jesper Ellerbæk; Jensen, David Getreuer

2015-01-01

Flooding produced by high-intensive local rainfall and drainage system capacity exceedance can have severe impacts in cities. In order to prepare cities for these types of flood events – especially in the future climate – it is valuable to be able to simulate these events numericallyboth...... historically and in real-time. There is a rather untested potential in real-time prediction of urban floods. In this paper radar data observations with different spatial and temporal resolution, radar nowcasts of 0-2 hours leadtime, and numerical weather models with leadtimes up to 24 h are used as inputs...... to an integrated flood and drainage systems model with the purpose to investigate the potential for predicting future floods. The system is tested on a small town Lystrup in Denmark, which has been recently flooded. Results show that it is possible to generate detailed flood maps in real-time with high resolution...

Floods and Flash Flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Floods and flash flooding Now is the time to determine your area’s flood risk. If you are not sure whether you ... If you are in a floodplain, consider buying flood insurance. Do not drive around barricades. If your ...

A satellite and model based flood inundation climatology of Australia

Science.gov (United States)

Schumann, G.; Andreadis, K.; Castillo, C. J.

2013-12-01

To date there is no coherent and consistent database on observed or simulated flood event inundation and magnitude at large scales (continental to global). The only compiled data set showing a consistent history of flood inundation area and extent at a near global scale is provided by the MODIS-based Dartmouth Flood Observatory. However, MODIS satellite imagery is only available from 2000 and is hampered by a number of issues associated with flood mapping using optical images (e.g. classification algorithms, cloud cover, vegetation). Here, we present for the first time a proof-of-concept study in which we employ a computationally efficient 2-D hydrodynamic model (LISFLOOD-FP) complemented with a sub-grid channel formulation to generate a complete flood inundation climatology of the past 40 years (1973-2012) for the entire Australian continent. The model was built completely from freely available SRTM-derived data, including channel widths, bank heights and floodplain topography, which was corrected for vegetation canopy height using a global ICESat canopy dataset. Channel hydraulics were resolved using actual channel data and bathymetry was estimated within the model using hydraulic geometry. On the floodplain, the model simulated the flow paths and inundation variables at a 1 km resolution. The developed model was run over a period of 40 years and a floodplain inundation climatology was generated and compared to satellite flood event observations. Our proof-of-concept study demonstrates that this type of model can reliably simulate past flood events with reasonable accuracies both in time and space. The Australian model was forced with both observed flow climatology and VIC-simulated flows in order to assess the feasibility of a model-based flood inundation climatology at the global scale.

Natural Flood Management in context: evaluating and enhancing the impact.

Science.gov (United States)

Metcalfe, Peter; Beven, Keith; Hankin, Barry; Lamb, Rob

2016-04-01

The series of flood events in the UK throughout December 2015 have led to calls for a reappraisal of the country's approach to flood management. In parts of Cumbria so-called "1 in 100" year floods have occurred three times in the last ten years, leading to significant infrastructure damage. Hard-engineered defences upgraded to cope with an anticipated 20% increase in peak flows and these 1% AEP events have been overwhelmed. It has become more widely acknowledged that unsympathetic agricultural and upland management practices, mainly since the Second World War, have led to a significant loss of storage in mid and upper catchments and their consequent ability to retain and slow storm run-off. Natural Flood Management (NFM) is a nature-based solution to restoring this storage and flood peak attenuation through a network of small-scale features exploiting natural topography and materials. Combined with other "soft" interventions such as restoring flood plain roughness and tree-planting, NFM offers the attractive prospect of an intervention that can target both the ecological and chemical objectives of the Water Framework Directive and the resilience demanded by the Floods Directive. We developed a simple computerised physical routing model that can account for the presence of in-channel and offline features such as would be found in a NFM scheme. These will add storage to the channel and floodplain and throttle the downstream discharge at storm flows. The model was applied to the heavily-modified channel network of an agricultural catchment in North Yorkshire using the run-off simulated for two storm events that caused flooding downstream in the autumn of 2012. Using up to 60 online features we demonstrated some gains in channel storage and a small impact on the flood hydrograph which would, however, have been insufficient to prevent the downstream floods in either of the storms. Complementary research at JBA has applied their hydrodynamic model JFLOW+ to identify

Improved Efficiency of Miscible CO2 Floods and Enhanced Prospects for CO2 Flooding Heterogeneous Reservoirs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grigg, Reid B.; Schechter, David S.

1999-10-15

The goal of this project is to improve the efficiency of miscible CO2 floods and enhance the prospects for flooding heterogeneous reservoirs. This report provides results of the second year of the three-year project that will be exploring three principles: (1) Fluid and matrix interactions (understanding the problems). (2) Conformance control/sweep efficiency (solving the problems. 3) Reservoir simulation for improved oil recovery (predicting results).

Simulation of Flash-Flood-Producing Storm Events in Saudi Arabia Using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

KAUST Repository

Deng, Liping

2015-05-01

The challenges of monitoring and forecasting flash-flood-producing storm events in data-sparse and arid regions are explored using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model (version 3.5) in conjunction with a range of available satellite, in situ, and reanalysis data. Here, we focus on characterizing the initial synoptic features and examining the impact of model parameterization and resolution on the reproduction of a number of flood-producing rainfall events that occurred over the western Saudi Arabian city of Jeddah. Analysis from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) data suggests that mesoscale convective systems associated with strong moisture convergence ahead of a trough were the major initial features for the occurrence of these intense rain events. The WRF Model was able to simulate the heavy rainfall, with driving convective processes well characterized by a high-resolution cloud-resolving model. The use of higher (1 km vs 5 km) resolution along the Jeddah coastline favors the simulation of local convective systems and adds value to the simulation of heavy rainfall, especially for deep-convection-related extreme values. At the 5-km resolution, corresponding to an intermediate study domain, simulation without a cumulus scheme led to the formation of deeper convective systems and enhanced rainfall around Jeddah, illustrating the need for careful model scheme selection in this transition resolution. In analysis of multiple nested WRF simulations (25, 5, and 1 km), localized volume and intensity of heavy rainfall together with the duration of rainstorms within the Jeddah catchment area were captured reasonably well, although there was evidence of some displacements of rainstorm events.

Integrated Flood Forecast and Virtual Dam Operation System for Water Resources and Flood Risk Management

Science.gov (United States)

Shibuo, Yoshihiro; Ikoma, Eiji; Lawford, Peter; Oyanagi, Misa; Kanauchi, Shizu; Koudelova, Petra; Kitsuregawa, Masaru; Koike, Toshio

2014-05-01

While availability of hydrological- and hydrometeorological data shows growing tendency and advanced modeling techniques are emerging, such newly available data and advanced models may not always be applied in the field of decision-making. In this study we present an integrated system of ensemble streamflow forecast (ESP) and virtual dam simulator, which is designed to support river and dam manager's decision making. The system consists of three main functions: real time hydrological model, ESP model, and dam simulator model. In the real time model, the system simulates current condition of river basins, such as soil moisture and river discharges, using LSM coupled distributed hydrological model. The ESP model takes initial condition from the real time model's output and generates ESP, based on numerical weather prediction. The dam simulator model provides virtual dam operation and users can experience impact of dam control on remaining reservoir volume and downstream flood under the anticipated flood forecast. Thus the river and dam managers shall be able to evaluate benefit of priori dam release and flood risk reduction at the same time, on real time basis. Furthermore the system has been developed under the concept of data and models integration, and it is coupled with Data Integration and Analysis System (DIAS) - a Japanese national project for integrating and analyzing massive amount of observational and model data. Therefore it has advantage in direct use of miscellaneous data from point/radar-derived observation, numerical weather prediction output, to satellite imagery stored in data archive. Output of the system is accessible over the web interface, making information available with relative ease, e.g. from ordinary PC to mobile devices. We have been applying the system to the Upper Tone region, located northwest from Tokyo metropolitan area, and we show application example of the system in recent flood events caused by typhoons.

Numerical Simulation of CO2 Flooding of Coalbed Methane Considering the Fluid-Solid Coupling Effect.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianjun Liu

Full Text Available CO2 flooding of coalbed methane (CO2-ECBM not only stores CO2 underground and reduces greenhouse gas emissions but also enhances the gas production ratio. This coupled process involves multi-phase fluid flow and coal-rock deformation, as well as processes such as competitive gas adsorption and diffusion from the coal matrix into fractures. A dual-porosity medium that consists of a matrix and fractures was built to simulate the flooding process, and a mathematical model was used to consider the competitive adsorption, diffusion and seepage processes and the interaction between flow and deformation. Due to the effects of the initial pressure and the differences in pressure variation during the production process, permeability changes caused by matrix shrinkage were spatially variable in the reservoir. The maximum value of permeability appeared near the production well, and the degree of rebound decreased with increasing distance from the production well.

Itzï (version 17.1): an open-source, distributed GIS model for dynamic flood simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Guillaume Courty, Laurent; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Bates, Paul David

2017-05-01

Worldwide, floods are acknowledged as one of the most destructive hazards. In human-dominated environments, their negative impacts are ascribed not only to the increase in frequency and intensity of floods but also to a strong feedback between the hydrological cycle and anthropogenic development. In order to advance a more comprehensive understanding of this complex interaction, this paper presents the development of a new open-source tool named Itzï that enables the 2-D numerical modelling of rainfall-runoff processes and surface flows integrated with the open-source geographic information system (GIS) software known as GRASS. Therefore, it takes advantage of the ability given by GIS environments to handle datasets with variations in both temporal and spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the presented numerical tool can handle datasets from different sources with varied spatial resolutions, facilitating the preparation and management of input and forcing data. This ability reduces the preprocessing time usually required by other models. Itzï uses a simplified form of the shallow water equations, the damped partial inertia equation, for the resolution of surface flows, and the Green-Ampt model for the infiltration. The source code is now publicly available online, along with complete documentation. The numerical model is verified against three different tests cases: firstly, a comparison with an analytic solution of the shallow water equations is introduced; secondly, a hypothetical flooding event in an urban area is implemented, where results are compared to those from an established model using a similar approach; and lastly, the reproduction of a real inundation event that occurred in the city of Kingston upon Hull, UK, in June 2007, is presented. The numerical approach proved its ability at reproducing the analytic and synthetic test cases. Moreover, simulation results of the real flood event showed its suitability at identifying areas affected by flooding

Determination of adsorption parameters in numerical simulation for polymer flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Bao, Pengyu; Li, Aifen; Luo, Shuai; Dang, Xu

2018-02-01

A study on the determination of adsorption parameters for polymer flooding simulation was carried out. The study mainly includes polymer static adsorption and dynamic adsorption. The law of adsorption amount changing with polymer concentration and core permeability was presented, and the one-dimensional numerical model of CMG was established under the support of a large number of experimental data. The adsorption laws of adsorption experiments were applied to the one-dimensional numerical model to compare the influence of two adsorption laws on the historical matching results. The results show that the static adsorption and dynamic adsorption abide by different rules, and differ greatly in adsorption. If the static adsorption results were directly applied to the numerical model, the difficulty of the historical matching will increase. Therefore, dynamic adsorption tests in the porous medium are necessary before the process of parameter adjustment in order to achieve the ideal history matching result.

Simulation of polymer flooding in one of the Iranian oil fields

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehdi Mohammad Salehi

2017-06-01

This study shows the optimum concentration of Nano clay could improve polymer properties. Results also show that the polymer flooding scenario has higher oil recovery in comparison to other displacement methods such as natural depletion and water flooding.

Pesticide-soil microflora interactions in flooded rice soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sethunathan, N.; Siddaramappa, R.; Siddarame Gowda, T.K.; Rajaram, K.P.; Barik, S.; Rao, V.R.

1976-01-01

Isotope studies revealed that gamma and beta isomers of HCH (hexachlorocyclohexane) decomposed rapidly in nonsterile soils capable of attaining redox potentials of -40 to -100mV within 20 days after flooding. Degradation was slow, however, in soils low in organic matter and in soils with extremely low pH and positive potentials, even after several weeks of flooding. Under flooded conditions, endrin decomposed to six metabolites in most soils. There is evidence that biological hydrolysis of parathion is more widespread than hitherto believed, particularly under flooded soil conditions. Applications of benomyl (fungicide) to a simulated-oxidized zone of flooded soils favoured heterotrophic nitrification. (author)

Flood Mapping: Assessing the uncertainty associated with flood inundation modelling. A case study of the Mora River, Sweden

OpenAIRE

Åberg, Isabelle

2017-01-01

Expansion of cities and major infrastructure projects lead to changes in land use and river flows. The probability of flooding is expected to increase in the future as a result of these changes in combination with climate change. Hydraulic models can be used to obtain simulated water levels to investigate the risk of flooding and identify areas that might potentially be flooded due to climate change. Since a model is a simplification of the reality it is important to be aware of a model’s unc...

Probable maximum flood on the Ha Ha River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Damov, D.; Masse, B.

1997-01-01

Results of a probable maximum flood (PMF) study conducted for various locations along the Ha Ha river, a tributary of the Saguenay River, were discussed. The study was undertaken for use in the design and construction of new hydraulic structures for water supply for a pulp and paper facility, following the Saguenay Flood in July 1996. Many different flood scenarios were considered, including combinations of snow-melt with rainfall. Using computer simulations, it was shown that the largest flood flows were generated by summer-fall PMF. 5 refs., 12 figs

Urban flood risk warning under rapid urbanization.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yangbo; Zhou, Haolan; Zhang, Hui; Du, Guoming; Zhou, Jinhui

2015-05-01

multiple index fuzzy evaluation warning method, and referred to as DMFEW method. DMFEW first selects 5 evaluation indexes based on the DPSIR model for flood risk warning evaluation, including driving force index, pressure index, state index, impact index and response index. Based on the values of all evaluation indexes, one evaluation index for the whole system evaluation result is determined by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The flood risk level is divided into 4 levels, having Level 1 the most serious. Every evaluation index is also categorized as 4 levels, and a linear fuzzy subjection function is proposed to do the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Dongguan City is used as the study case to validate the proposed method. The urban flood forecasting model is set up with the topographic data, the city map, the underground pipelines and land cover types, and two flood events are simulated with observed precipitation, one is interpolated from the rain gauges data, and another is estimated by digital weather radar. The simulated results are compared with the investigated water depth, and the results show the model has very good performances. The results are further used for the flood risk warning simulation, and are very reasonable. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Camp Marmal Flood Study

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

was simulated by means of a broad - crested weir built into the topography of the mesh. There is 0.5 m of freeboard and the width of the weir is 30 m...ER D C/ CH L TR -1 2- 5 Camp Marmal Flood Study Co as ta l a nd H yd ra ul ic s La bo ra to ry Jeremy A. Sharp , Steve H. Scott...Camp Marmal Flood Study Jeremy A. Sharp , Steve H. Scott, Mark R. Jourdan, and Gaurav Savant Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory U.S. Army Engineer

CHEMSIMUL: A simulator for chemical kinetics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, P.; Bjergbakke, E.

1999-01-01

CHEMSIMUL is a computer program system for numerical simulation of chemical reaction systems. It can be used for modeling complex kinetics in many contexts, in particular radiolytic processes. It contains a translator module and a module for solving theresulting coupled nonlinear ordinary...

Simulation and Hydrologic Modeling of Urban Watershed for Flooding Forecast: The case of the Rio das Antas in the city of Anápolis-GO

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo Dourado Argolo

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The study area is located along the Rio das Antas basin in the city of Anápolis, Goiás. This study exemplifies an urban area exposed to flooding by rainwater. Decline in the permeability of the river basin area is result of significant real state development in recent years. This study proposes to simulate water flows and respective flooding areas along different sections of the River in response to different rainfall intensities. The simulated flow rates are the result of interpretation of land use scenarios and hydrologic modeling of the river basin area. The rational method and the Bernoulli equation were used in the hydraulic simulation model of the computer program HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System...

Flood Hazard Mapping : Uncertainty and its Value in the Decision-making Process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mukolwe, M.M.

2016-01-01

Computers are increasingly used in the simulation of natural phenomena such as floods. However, these simulations are based on numerical approximations of equations formalizing our conceptual understanding of flood flows. Thus, model results are intrinsically subject to uncertainty and the use of

Flood Hazard Mapping: Uncertainty and its Value in the Decision-making Process

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mukolwe, M.M.

2016-01-01

Computers are increasingly used in the simulation of natural phenomena such as floods. However, these simulations are based on numerical approximations of equations formalizing our conceptual understanding of flood flows. Thus, model results are intrinsically subject to uncertainty and the use of

Flood frequency approach in a Mediterranean Flash Flood basin. A case study in the Besòs catchment

Science.gov (United States)

Velasco, D.; Zanon, F.; Corral, C.; Sempere-Torres, D.; Borga, M.

2009-04-01

Flash floods are one of the most devastating natural disasters in the Mediterranean areas. In particular, the region of Catalonia (North-East Spain) is one of the most affected by flash floods in the Iberian Peninsula. The high rainfall intensities generating these events, the specific terrain characteristics giving rise to very fast hydrological responses and the high variability in space and time of both rain and land surface, are the main features of FF and also the main cause of their extreme complexity. Distributed hydrological models have been developed to increase the flow forecast resolution in order to implement effective operational warning systems. Some studies have shown how the distributed-models accuracy is highly sensitive to reduced computational grid scale, so, hydrological model uncertainties must be studied. In these conditions, an estimation of the modeling uncertainty (whatever the accuracy is) becomes highly valuable information to enhance our ability to predict the occurrence of flash flooding. The statistical-distributed modeling approach (Reed, 2004) is proposed in the present study to simulate floods on a small basin and account for hydrologic modeling uncertainty. The Besòs catchment (1020 km2), near Barcelona, has been selected in this study to apply the proposed flood frequency methodology. Hydrometeorological data is available for 11 rain-gauges and 6 streamflow gauges in the last 12 years, and a total of 9 flood events have been identified and analyzed in this study. The DiCHiTop hydrological model (Corral, 2004) was developed to fit operational requirements in the Besòs catchment: distributed, robust and easy to implement. It is a grid-based model that works at a given resolution (here at 1 × 1 km2, the hydrological cell), defining a simplified drainage system at this scale. A loss function is applied at the hydrological cell resolution, provided by a coupled storage model between the SCS model (Mockus, 1957) in urban areas and

Pan-European stochastic flood event set

Science.gov (United States)

Kadlec, Martin; Pinto, Joaquim G.; He, Yi; Punčochář, Petr; Kelemen, Fanni D.; Manful, Desmond; Palán, Ladislav

2017-04-01

Impact Forecasting (IF), the model development center of Aon Benfield, has been developing a large suite of catastrophe flood models on probabilistic bases for individual countries in Europe. Such natural catastrophes do not follow national boundaries: for example, the major flood in 2016 was responsible for the Europe's largest insured loss of USD3.4bn and affected Germany, France, Belgium, Austria and parts of several other countries. Reflecting such needs, IF initiated a pan-European flood event set development which combines cross-country exposures with country based loss distributions to provide more insightful data to re/insurers. Because the observed discharge data are not available across the whole Europe in sufficient quantity and quality to permit a detailed loss evaluation purposes, a top-down approach was chosen. This approach is based on simulating precipitation from a GCM/RCM model chain followed by a calculation of discharges using rainfall-runoff modelling. IF set up this project in a close collaboration with Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) regarding the precipitation estimates and with University of East Anglia (UEA) in terms of the rainfall-runoff modelling. KIT's main objective is to provide high resolution daily historical and stochastic time series of key meteorological variables. A purely dynamical downscaling approach with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) is used to generate the historical time series, using re-analysis data as boundary conditions. The resulting time series are validated against the gridded observational dataset E-OBS, and different bias-correction methods are employed. The generation of the stochastic time series requires transfer functions between large-scale atmospheric variables and regional temperature and precipitation fields. These transfer functions are developed for the historical time series using reanalysis data as predictors and bias-corrected CCLM simulated precipitation and temperature as

Street floods in Metro Manila and possible solutions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagmay, Alfredo Mahar; Mendoza, Jerico; Cipriano, Fatima; Delmendo, Patricia Anne; Lacsamana, Micah Nieves; Moises, Marc Anthony; Pellejera, Nicanor; Punay, Kenneth Niño; Sabio, Glenn; Santos, Laurize; Serrano, Jonathan; Taniza, Herbert James; Tingin, Neil Eneri

2017-09-01

Urban floods from thunderstorms cause severe problems in Metro Manila due to road traffic. Using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived topography, flood simulations and anecdotal reports, the root of surface flood problems in Metro Manila is identified. Majority of flood-prone areas are along the intersection of creeks and streets located in topographic lows. When creeks overflow or when rapidly accumulated street flood does not drain fast enough to the nearest stream channel, the intersecting road also gets flooded. Possible solutions include the elevation of roads or construction of well-designed drainage structures leading to the creeks. Proposed solutions to the flood problem of Metro Manila may avoid paralyzing traffic problems due to short-lived rain events, which according to Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) cost the Philippine economy 2.4billionpesos/day. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Surfactant loss control in chemical flooding: Spectroscopic and calorimetric study of adsorption and precipitation on reservoir minerals. Annual report, September 30, 1992--September 30, 1993

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Somasundaran, P.

1994-07-01

The aim of this research project is to investigate mechanisms underlying adsorption and surface precipitation of flooding surfactants on reservoir minerals. Effects of surfactant structure, surfactant combinations, various inorganic and polymeric species, and solids mineralogy will be determined. A multi-pronged approach consisting of micro & nano spectroscopy, microcalorimetry, electrokinetics, surface tension and wettability; is used in this study. The results obtained should help in controlling surfactant loss in chemical flooding and in developing optimum structures and conditions for efficient chemical flooding processes. During the first year of this three year contract, adsorption of single surfactants and select surfactant mixtures was studied at the solid-liquid and gas-liquid interfaces. Surfactants studied include alkyl xylene sulfonates, polyethoxylated alkyl phenols, octaethylene glycol mono n-decyl ether, and tetradecyl trimethyl ammonium chloride. Adsorption of surfactant mixtures of varying composition was also investigated. The microstructure of the adsorbed layer was characterized using fluorescence spectroscopy. Changes interfacial properties such as wettability, electrokinetics and stability of reservoir minerals were correlated with the amount of reagent adsorbed. Strong effects of the structure of the surfactant and position of functional groups were revealed.

Hydrodynamic modelling of extreme flood events in the Kashmir valley in India

Science.gov (United States)

Jain, Manoj; Parvaze, Sabah

2017-04-01

Floods are one of the most predominant, costly and deadly hazards of all natural vulnerabilities. Every year, floods exert a heavy toll on human life and property in many parts of the world. The prediction of river stages and discharge during flood extremes plays a vital role in planning structural and non-structural measures of flood management. The predictions are also valuable to prepare the flood inundation maps and river floodplain zoning. In the Kashmir Valley, floods occur mainly and very often in the Jhelum Basin mostly due to extreme precipitation events and rugged mountainous topography of the basin. These floods cause extreme damage to life and property in the valley from time to time. Excessive rainfall, particularly in higher sub-catchments causes the snow to melt resulting in excessive runoff downhill to the streams causing floods in the Kashmir Valley where Srinagar city is located. However, very few hydrological studies have been undertaken for the Jhelum Basin mainly due to non-availability of hydrological data due to very complex mountainous terrain. Therefore, the present study has been conducted to model the extreme flood events in the Jhelum Basin in Kashmir Valley. An integrated NAM and MIKE 11 HD model has been setup for Jhelum basin up to Ram Munshi Bagh gauging site and then four most extreme historical flood events in the time series has been analyzed separately including the most recent and most extreme flood event of 2014. In September 2014, the Kashmir Valley witnessed the most severe flood in the past 60 years due to catastrophic rainfall from 1st to 6th September wherein the valley received unprecedented rainfall of more than 650 mm in just 3 days breaking record of many decades. The MIKE 11 HD and NAM model has been calibrated using 21 years (1985-2005) data and validated using 9 years (2006-2014) data. The efficiency indices of the model for calibration and validation period is 0.749 and 0.792 respectively. The model simulated

2D Modeling of Flood Propagation due to the Failure of Way Ela Natural Dam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yakti Bagus Pramono

2018-01-01

Full Text Available A dam break induced-flood propagation modeling is needed to reduce the losses of any potential dam failure. On the 25 July 2013, there was a dam break generated flood due to the failure of Way Ela Natural Dam that severely damaged houses and various public facilities. This study simulated the flooding induced by the failure of Way Ela Natural Dam. A two-dimensional (2D numerical model, HEC-RAS v.5, is used to simulate the overland flow. The dam failure itself is simulated using HECHMSv.4. The results of this study, the flood inundation, flood depth, and flood arrival time are verified by using available secondary data. These informations are very important to propose mitigation plans with respect to possible dam break in the future.

Improved Efficiency of Miscible CO2 Floods and Enhanced Prospects for CO2 Flooding Heterogeneous Reservoirs; ANNUAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grigg, Reid B.; Schechter, David S.

1999-01-01

The goal of this project is to improve the efficiency of miscible CO2 floods and enhance the prospects for flooding heterogeneous reservoirs. This report provides results of the second year of the three-year project that will be exploring three principles: (1) Fluid and matrix interactions (understanding the problems). (2) Conformance control/sweep efficiency (solving the problems. 3) Reservoir simulation for improved oil recovery (predicting results)

Flood risk assessment in France: comparison of extreme flood estimation methods (EXTRAFLO project, Task 7)

Science.gov (United States)

Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Carre, J.

2013-12-01

In flood risk assessment the methods can be divided in two families: deterministic methods and probabilistic methods. In the French hydrologic community the probabilistic methods are historically preferred to the deterministic ones. Presently a French research project named EXTRAFLO (RiskNat Program of the French National Research Agency, https://extraflo.cemagref.fr) deals with the design values for extreme rainfall and floods. The object of this project is to carry out a comparison of the main methods used in France for estimating extreme values of rainfall and floods, to obtain a better grasp of their respective fields of application. In this framework we present the results of Task 7 of EXTRAFLO project. Focusing on French watersheds, we compare the main extreme flood estimation methods used in French background: (i) standard flood frequency analysis (Gumbel and GEV distribution), (ii) regional flood frequency analysis (regional Gumbel and GEV distribution), (iii) local and regional flood frequency analysis improved by historical information (Naulet et al., 2005), (iv) simplify probabilistic method based on rainfall information (i.e. Gradex method (CFGB, 1994), Agregee method (Margoum, 1992) and Speed method (Cayla, 1995)), (v) flood frequency analysis by continuous simulation approach and based on rainfall information (i.e. Schadex method (Paquet et al., 2013, Garavaglia et al., 2010), Shyreg method (Lavabre et al., 2003)) and (vi) multifractal approach. The main result of this comparative study is that probabilistic methods based on additional information (i.e. regional, historical and rainfall information) provide better estimations than the standard flood frequency analysis. Another interesting result is that, the differences between the various extreme flood quantile estimations of compared methods increase with return period, staying relatively moderate up to 100-years return levels. Results and discussions are here illustrated throughout with the example

On microscopic simulations of systems with model chemical reactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gorecki, J.; Gorecka, J.N.

1998-01-01

Large scale computer simulations of model chemical systems play the role of idealized experiments in which theories may be tested. In this paper we present two applications of microscopic simulations based on the reactive hard sphere model. We investigate the influence of internal fluctuations on an oscillating chemical system and observe how they modify the phase portrait of it. Another application, we consider, is concerned with the propagation of a chemical wave front associated with a thermally activated reaction. It is shown that the nonequilibrium effects increase the front velocity if compared with the velocity of the front generated by a nonactivated process characterized by the same rate constant. (author)

Modeling Flood & Drought Scenario for Water Management in Porali River Basin, Balochistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shoaib Ahmed

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Recent history shows that floods have become a frequently occurring disaster in Balochistan, especially during monsoon season. Two rivers, river Porali and river Kud overflows, inundating its banks and causing destruction to cultivated land and property. This study is an attempt to identify flood prone areas of Porali river basin for future flood scenario and propose possible reservoir locations for excess flood water storage. Computer-based models Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF and HEC-river analysis system (HEC-RAS are used as tools to simulate existing and future flood and drought scenarios. Models are calibrated and validated using data from 3 weather stations, namely Wadh, Bela, and Uthal and stream flow data from two gauging stations. The highest and the lowest 10 years of precipitation data are extracted, from historic dataset of all stations, to attain future flooding and drought scenarios, respectively. Flood inundation map is generated highlighting agricultural prone land and settlements of the watershed. Using Digital Elevation Model (DEM and volume of water calculated from the flood scenario, possible locations for reservoirs are marked that can store excess water for the use in drought years. Flow and volume of water has also been simulated for drought scenario. Analyses show that 3 × 109 m3 of water available due to immense flooding that is sufficient for the survival for one drought year, as the volume of water for latter scenario is 2.9 × 108m3.

Flood Response System—A Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yogesh Kumar Singh

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Flood Response System (FRS is a network-enabled solution developed using open-source software. The system has query based flood damage assessment modules with outputs in the form of spatial maps and statistical databases. FRS effectively facilitates the management of post-disaster activities caused due to flood, like displaying spatial maps of area affected, inundated roads, etc., and maintains a steady flow of information at all levels with different access rights depending upon the criticality of the information. It is designed to facilitate users in managing information related to flooding during critical flood seasons and analyzing the extent of damage. The inputs to FRS are provided using two components: (1 a semi-automated application developed indigenously, to delineate inundated areas for Near-Real Time Flood Monitoring using Active Microwave Remote Sensing data and (2 a two-dimensional (2D hydrodynamic river model generated outputs for water depth and velocity in flooded areas for an embankment breach scenario. The 2D Hydrodynamic model, CCHE2D (Center for Computational Hydroscience and Engineering Two-Dimensional model, was used to simulate an area of 600 km2 in the flood-prone zone of the Brahmaputra basin. The resultant inundated area from the model was found to be 85% accurate when validated with post-flood optical satellite data.

Towards a Flood Severity Index

Science.gov (United States)

Kettner, A.; Chong, A.; Prades, L.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Muir, S.; Amparore, A.; Slayback, D. A.; Poungprom, R.

2017-12-01

Flooding is the most common natural hazard worldwide, affecting 21 million people every year. In the immediate moments following a flood event, humanitarian actors like the World Food Program need to make rapid decisions ( 72 hrs) on how to prioritize affected areas impacted by such an event. For other natural disasters like hurricanes/cyclones and earthquakes, there are industry-recognized standards on how the impacted areas are to be classified. Shake maps, quantifying peak ground motion, from for example the US Geological Survey are widely used for assessing earthquakes. Similarly, cyclones are tracked by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) who release storm nodes and tracks (forecasted and actual), with wind buffers and classify the event according to the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. For floods, the community is usually able to acquire unclassified data of the flood extent as identified from satellite imagery. Most often no water discharge hydrograph is available to classify the event into recurrence intervals simply because there is no gauging station, or the gauging station was unable to record the maximum discharge due to overtopping or flood damage. So, the question remains: How do we methodically turn a flooded area into classified areas of different gradations of impact? Here, we present a first approach towards developing a global applicable flood severity index. The flood severity index is set up such that it considers relatively easily obtainable physical parameters in a short period of time like: flood frequency (relating the current flood to historical events) and magnitude, as well as land cover, slope, and where available pre-event simulated flood depth. The scale includes categories ranging from very minor flooding to catastrophic flooding. We test and evaluate the postulated classification scheme against a set of past flood events. Once a severity category is determined, socio

Combining Satellite Measurements and Numerical Flood Prediction Models to Save Lives and Property from Flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Saleh, F.; Garambois, P. A.; Biancamaria, S.

2017-12-01

Floods are considered the major natural threats to human societies across all continents. Consequences of floods in highly populated areas are more dramatic with losses of human lives and substantial property damage. This risk is projected to increase with the effects of climate change, particularly sea-level rise, increasing storm frequencies and intensities and increasing population and economic assets in such urban watersheds. Despite the advances in computational resources and modeling techniques, significant gaps exist in predicting complex processes and accurately representing the initial state of the system. Improving flood prediction models and data assimilation chains through satellite has become an absolute priority to produce accurate flood forecasts with sufficient lead times. The overarching goal of this work is to assess the benefits of the Surface Water Ocean Topography SWOT satellite data from a flood prediction perspective. The near real time methodology is based on combining satellite data from a simulator that mimics the future SWOT data, numerical models, high resolution elevation data and real-time local measurement in the New York/New Jersey area.

A web GIS based integrated flood assessment modeling tool for coastal urban watersheds

Science.gov (United States)

Kulkarni, A. T.; Mohanty, J.; Eldho, T. I.; Rao, E. P.; Mohan, B. K.

2014-03-01

Urban flooding has become an increasingly important issue in many parts of the world. In this study, an integrated flood assessment model (IFAM) is presented for the coastal urban flood simulation. A web based GIS framework has been adopted to organize the spatial datasets for the study area considered and to run the model within this framework. The integrated flood model consists of a mass balance based 1-D overland flow model, 1-D finite element based channel flow model based on diffusion wave approximation and a quasi 2-D raster flood inundation model based on the continuity equation. The model code is written in MATLAB and the application is integrated within a web GIS server product viz: Web Gram Server™ (WGS), developed at IIT Bombay, using Java, JSP and JQuery technologies. Its user interface is developed using open layers and the attribute data are stored in MySQL open source DBMS. The model is integrated within WGS and is called via Java script. The application has been demonstrated for two coastal urban watersheds of Navi Mumbai, India. Simulated flood extents for extreme rainfall event of 26 July, 2005 in the two urban watersheds of Navi Mumbai city are presented and discussed. The study demonstrates the effectiveness of the flood simulation tool in a web GIS environment to facilitate data access and visualization of GIS datasets and simulation results.

Linking flood peak, flood volume and inundation extent: a DEM-based approach

Science.gov (United States)

Rebolho, Cédric; Furusho-Percot, Carina; Blaquière, Simon; Brettschneider, Marco; Andréassian, Vazken

2017-04-01

model showed a 0.51 median Fit (intersection of simulated and observed areas divided by the union of the two, Bates and De Roo, 2000) and a 0.74 maximum. Obviously, this approach is quite rough, and would require testing on events of homogeneous return periods (which is not the case for now). The next steps in the test and the development of our method include the use of the AIGA distributed model to simulate past-events hydrographs, the search for a new way to automatically approach bankfull flow and the integration of the results in our model to build dynamic maps of the flood. References Arnaud, P., Eglin, Y., Janet, B., and Payrastre, O. (2013). Notice utilisateur : bases de données SHYREG-Débit. Méthode - Performances - Limites. Bates, P. D. and De Roo, A. P. J. (2000). A simple raster-based model for flood inundation simulation. Journal of Hydrology, 236(1-2):54-77. Mailhol, J. (1980). Pour une approche plus réaliste du temps caractéristique de crues des bassins versants. In Actes du Colloque d'Oxford, volume 129, pages 229-237, Oxford. IAHS-AISH.

Flood Risk Assessment as a Part of Integrated Flood and Drought Analysis. Case Study: Southern Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Prabnakorn, Saowanit; Suryadi, Fransiscus X.; de Fraiture, Charlotte

2015-04-01

Flood and drought are two main meteorological catastrophes that have created adverse consequences to more than 80% of total casualties universally, 50% by flood and 31% by drought. Those natural hazards have the tendency of increasing frequency and degree of severity and it is expected that climate change will exacerbate their occurrences and impacts. In addition, growing population and society interference are the other key factors that pressure on and exacerbate the adverse impacts. Consequently, nowadays, the loss from any disasters becomes less and less acceptable bringing about more people's consciousness on mitigation measures and management strategies and policies. In general, due to the difference in their inherent characteristics and time occurrences flood and drought mitigation and protection have been separately implemented, managed, and supervised by different group of authorities. Therefore, the objective of this research is to develop an integrated mitigation measure or a management policy able to surmount both problems to acceptable levels and is conveniently monitored by the same group of civil servants which will be economical in both short- and long-term. As aforementioned of the distinction of fundamental peculiarities and occurrence, the assessment processes of floods and droughts are separately performed using their own specific techniques. In the first part of the research flood risk assessment is focused in order to delineate the flood prone area. The study area is a river plain in southern Thailand where flooding is influenced by monsoon and depression. The work is mainly concentrated on physically-based computational modeling and an assortment of tools was applied for: data completion, areal rainfall interpolation, statistical distribution, rainfall-runoff analysis and flow model simulation. The outcome from the simulation can be concluded that the flood prone areas susceptible to inundation are along the riparian areas, particularly at the

molecular dynamics simulations and quantum chemical calculations

African Journals Online (AJOL)

ABSTRACT. The molecular dynamic (MD) simulation and quantum chemical calculations for the adsorption of [2-(2-Henicos-10- .... electronic properties of molecule clusters, surfaces and ... The local reactivity was analyzed by determining the.

Consistency of extreme flood estimation approaches

Science.gov (United States)

Felder, Guido; Paquet, Emmanuel; Penot, David; Zischg, Andreas; Weingartner, Rolf

2017-04-01

Estimations of low-probability flood events are frequently used for the planning of infrastructure as well as for determining the dimensions of flood protection measures. There are several well-established methodical procedures to estimate low-probability floods. However, a global assessment of the consistency of these methods is difficult to achieve, the "true value" of an extreme flood being not observable. Anyway, a detailed comparison performed on a given case study brings useful information about the statistical and hydrological processes involved in different methods. In this study, the following three different approaches for estimating low-probability floods are compared: a purely statistical approach (ordinary extreme value statistics), a statistical approach based on stochastic rainfall-runoff simulation (SCHADEX method), and a deterministic approach (physically based PMF estimation). These methods are tested for two different Swiss catchments. The results and some intermediate variables are used for assessing potential strengths and weaknesses of each method, as well as for evaluating the consistency of these methods.

SEFLEX - fuel rod simulator effects in flooding experiments. Pt. 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ihle, P.; Rust, K.

1986-03-01

This report presents typical data and a limited heat transfer analysis from unblocked bundle reflood tests of an experimental thermal-hydraulic program. Full-length bundles of 5 x 5 fuel rod simulators having a gas-filled gap between the Zy cladding and the alumina pellets were tested in the test rig designed for the earlier Flooding Experiments with Blocked Arrays (FEBA-program). The 5 x 5 FEBA rod bundle tests were performed with gapless heater rods. These rods have a close thermal contact between the stainless steel cladding and the electric insulation material. A comparison of the SEFLEX data with the reference data of FEBA obtained under identical initial and reflood conditions shows the influence of different fuel rod simulators on the thermal-hydraulic behavior during forced feed bottom reflooding of unblocked and blocked arrays. Compared to bundles of gapless rods, bundles of rods with Zy claddings and a gas filled gap between claddings and pellets, which more closely represent the features that exist in an actual fuel rod geometry, produced higher quench front velocities, enhanced removal of stored heat in the rods, reduced peak cladding temperatures, increased grid spacer effects and absolutely unproblematic coolability of 90 percent blockages with bypass. The data offer the opportunity for further validation of computer codes to make realistic predictions of safety margins during a LOCA in a PWR. (orig./HP) [de

SEFLEX fuel rod simulator effects in flooding experiments. Pt. 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ihle, P.; Rust, K.

1986-03-01

This report presents typical data and a limited heat transfer analysis from blocked bundle reflood tests of an experimental thermal-hydraulic program. Full-length bundles of 5x5 fuel rod simulators having a gas-filled gap between the Zy cladding and the alumina pellets were tested in the test rig designed for the earlier Flooding Experiments with Blocked Arrays (FEBA-program). The 5x5 FEBA rod bundle tests were performed with gapless heater rods. These rods have a close thermal contact between the stainless steel cladding and the electric insulation material. A comparison of the SEFLEX data with the reference data of FEBA obtained under identical initial and reflood conditions shows the influence of different fuel rod simulators on the thermal-hydraulic behavior during forced feed bottom reflooding of unblocked and blocked arrays. Compared to bundles of gapless rods, bundles of rods with Zy claddings and a gas filled gap between claddings and pellets, which more closely represent the features that exist in an actual fuel rod geometry, produced higher quench front velocities, enhanced removal of stored heat in the rods, reduced peak cladding temperatures, increased grid spacer effects and absolutely unproblematic coolability of 90 percent blockages with bypass. The data offer the opportunity for further validation of computer codes to make realistic predictions of safety margins during a LOCA in a PWR. (orig./HP) [de

Improved recovery potential in mature heavy oil fields by Alkali-surfactant flooding

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bryan, J.; Kantzas, A. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada). Tomographic Imaging and Porous Media Laboratory

2008-10-15

Primary and secondary alkali surfactant (AS) chemical flooding techniques were optimized in this study. Core flooding experiments were conducted in order to investigate the formation of emulsions in bulk liquid system due to flow through rock pores. Cores were dried and then saturated with water or brine in order to measure permeability. The floods were then performed at various injection rates followed by the AS solution. Solutions were also injected without previous waterflooding. Individual oil and water mobilities were then calculated using the experimental data. Individual phase mobilities were calculated using the total pressure gradient measured across the core. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) studies were conducted in order to determine emulsion formation within porous media from in situ flooding tests at 4 different locations. Data from the NMR studies were used to calculate fluid distributions and measurements of in situ emulsification during the chemical floods. The study demonstrated that the use of the surfactants resulted in the in situ formation of oil-water and water-oil emulsions. Responses from de-ionized alkali and brine AS systems were similar. The recovery mechanism blocked off water channels and provided improved sweep efficiency in the core. It was concluded that injection rates and pressure gradients for chemical floods should be lowered in order to optimize their efficiency. 26 refs., 6 tabs., 15 figs.

Simulating flood risk under non-stationary climate and urban development conditions - Experimental setup for multiple hazards and a variety of scenarios

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Kulahci, Murat

2018-01-01

vulnerability resulting from urban growth. The framework is embedded in an experimental setup where flood damage obtained from combined hydraulic-urban development simulations is approximated using kriging-metamodels. Space-filling, sequential and stratified sequential sampling strategies are tested. Reliable...... options implemented over short time horizons. However, the number of simulations is reduced by up to one order of magnitude compared to scenario-based methods, highlighting the potential of the approach....

Flooding Effect on Earth Walls

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Meysam Banimahd

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Earth building is a sustainable, environmentally friendly and economical method of construction that has been used worldwide for many centuries. For the past three decades, earth has seen a revival as a building material for a modern construction method due to its benefits in terms of low carbon content, low cost and energy involved during construction, as well as the fact that it is a sustainable technology of building. Climate change is influencing precipitation levels and patterns around the world, and as a consequence, flood risk is increasing rapidly. When flooding occurs, earth buildings are exposed to water by submersion, causing an increase in the degree of saturation of the earth structures and therefore a decrease of the suction between particles. This study investigated the effect of cycles of flooding (consecutive events of flooding followed by dry periods on earth walls. A series of characterization tests were carried out to obtain the physical and mechanical properties of the studied earth material. In a second stage, Flooding Simulation Tests (FST were performed to explore the earth walls’ response to repeated flooding events. The results obtained for the tested earth wall/samples with reinforced material (straw reveal hydraulic hysteresis when wall/samples are subject to cycles of wetting and drying.

THE FLOOD RISK IN THE LOWER GIANH RIVER: MODELLING AND FIELD VERIFICATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NGUYEN H. D.

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Problems associated with flood risk definitely represent a highly topical issue in Vietnam. The case of the lower Gianh River in the central area of Vietnam, with a watershed area of 353 km2, is particularly interesting. In this area, periodically subject to flood risk, the scientific question is strongly linked to risk management. In addition, flood risk is the consequence of the hydrological hazard of an event and the damages related to this event. For this reason, our approach is based on hydrodynamic modelling using Mike Flood to simulate the runoff during a flood event. Unfortunately the data in the studied area are quite limited. Our computation of the flood risk is based on a three-step modelling process, using rainfall data coming from 8 stations, cross sections, the topographic map and the land-use map. The first step consists of creating a 1-D model using Mike 11, in order to simulate the runoff in the minor river bed. In the second step, we use Mike 21 to create a 2-D model to simulate the runoff in the flood plain. The last step allows us to couple the two models in order to precisely describe the variables for the hazard analysis in the flood plain (the water level, the speed, the extent of the flooding. Moreover the model is calibrated and verified using observational data of the water level at hydrologic stations and field control data (on the one hand flood height measurements, on the other hand interviews with the community and with the local councillors. We then generate GIS maps in order to improve flood hazard management, which allows us to create flood hazard maps by coupling the flood plain map and the runoff speed map. Our results show that: the flood peak, caused by typhoon Nari, reached more than 6 m on October 16th 2013 at 4 p.m. (its area was extended by 149 km². End that the typhoon constitutes an extreme flood hazard for 11.39%, very high for 10.60%, high for 30.79%, medium for 31.91% and a light flood hazard for 15

FORECAST OF THE DYNAMICS FLOODING OF THE CRIMEAN AREA DURING OF FLASH FLOODS IN 2012ON THE BASIS COMPUTER SIMULATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. O. Agafonnikova

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The dynamics features of the surface waters for the territory of the Crimea area of Krasnodar region in flash flood conditions have been studied. The parameters of flooding depending on the precipitation intensity have been defined.

The 2010 Pakistan floods: high-resolution simulations with the WRF model

Science.gov (United States)

Viterbo, Francesca; Parodi, Antonio; Molini, Luca; Provenzale, Antonello; von Hardenberg, Jost; Palazzi, Elisa

2013-04-01

Estimating current and future water resources in high mountain regions with complex orography is a difficult but crucial task. In particular, the French-Italian project PAPRIKA is focused on two specific regions in the Hindu-Kush -- Himalaya -- Karakorum (HKKH)region: the Shigar basin in Pakistan, at the feet of K2, and the Khumbu valley in Nepal, at the feet of Mount Everest. In this framework, we use the WRF model to simulate precipitation and meteorological conditions with high resolution in areas with extreme orographic slopes, comparing the model output with station and satellite data. Once validated the model, we shall run a set of three future time-slices at very high spatial resolution, in the periods 2046-2050, 2071-2075 and 2096-2100, nested in different climate change scenarios (EXtreme PREcipitation and Hydrological climate Scenario Simulations -EXPRESS-Hydro project). As a prelude to this study, here we discuss the simulation of specific, high-intensity rainfall events in this area. In this paper we focus on the 2010 Pakistan floods which began in late July 2010, producing heavy monsoon rains in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan regions of Pakistan and affecting the Indus River basin. Approximately one-fifth of Pakistan's total land area was underwater, with a death toll of about 2000 people. This event has been simulated with the WRF model (version 3.3.) in cloud-permitting mode (d01 14 km and d02 3.5 km): different convective closures and microphysics parameterization have been used. A deeper understanding of the processes responsible for this event has been gained through comparison with rainfall depth observations, radiosounding data and geostationary/polar satellite images.

Model simulations of potential contribution of the proposed Huangpu Gate to flood control in the Lake Taihu basin of China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hanghui; Liu, Shuguang; Ye, Jianchun; Yeh, Pat J.-F.

2017-10-01

The Lake Taihu basin (36 895 km2), one of the most developed regions in China located in the hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, has experienced increasing flood risk. The largest flood in history occurred in 1999 with a return period estimate of 200 years, considerably larger than the current capacity of the flood defense with a design return period of 50 years. Due to its flat saucer-like terrain, the capacity of the flood control system in this basin depends on flood control infrastructures and peripheral tidal conditions. The Huangpu River, an important river of the basin connecting Lake Taihu upstream and Yangtze River estuaries downstream, drains two-fifths of the entire basin. Since the water level in the Huangpu River is significantly affected by the high tide conditions in estuaries, constructing an estuary gate is considered an effective solution for flood mitigation. The main objective of this paper is to assess the potential contributions of the proposed Huangpu Gate to the flood control capacity of the basin. To achieve this goal, five different scenarios of flooding conditions and the associated gate operations are considered by using numerical model simulations. Results of quantitative analyses show that the Huangpu Gate is effective for evacuating floodwaters. It can help to reduce both peak values and duration of high water levels in Lake Taihu to benefit surrounding areas along the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River. The contribution of the gate to the flood control capacity is closely associated with its operation modes and duration. For the maximum potential contribution of the gate, the net outflow at the proposed site is increased by 52 %. The daily peak level is decreased by a maximum of 0.12 m in Lake Taihu, by maxima of 0.26-0.37 and 0.46-0.60 m in the Taipu Canal and the Huangpu River, respectively, and by 0.05-0.39 m in the surrounding areas depending on the local topography. It is concluded that the proposed Huangpu Gate can reduce

Identification of flood-rich and flood-poor periods in flood series

Science.gov (United States)

Mediero, Luis; Santillán, David; Garrote, Luis

2015-04-01

Recently, a general concern about non-stationarity of flood series has arisen, as changes in catchment response can be driven by several factors, such as climatic and land-use changes. Several studies to detect trends in flood series at either national or trans-national scales have been conducted. Trends are usually detected by the Mann-Kendall test. However, the results of this test depend on the starting and ending year of the series, which can lead to different results in terms of the period considered. The results can be conditioned to flood-poor and flood-rich periods located at the beginning or end of the series. A methodology to identify statistically significant flood-rich and flood-poor periods is developed, based on the comparison between the expected sampling variability of floods when stationarity is assumed and the observed variability of floods in a given series. The methodology is applied to a set of long series of annual maximum floods, peaks over threshold and counts of annual occurrences in peaks over threshold series observed in Spain in the period 1942-2009. Mediero et al. (2014) found a general decreasing trend in flood series in some parts of Spain that could be caused by a flood-rich period observed in 1950-1970, placed at the beginning of the flood series. The results of this study support the findings of Mediero et al. (2014), as a flood-rich period in 1950-1970 was identified in most of the selected sites. References: Mediero, L., Santillán, D., Garrote, L., Granados, A. Detection and attribution of trends in magnitude, frequency and timing of floods in Spain, Journal of Hydrology, 517, 1072-1088, 2014.

Modeling multi-source flooding disaster and developing simulation framework in Delta

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Cui, X.; Zhang, W.

2016-12-01

Most Delta regions of the world are densely populated and with advanced economies. However, due to impact of the multi-source flooding (upstream flood, rainstorm waterlogging, storm surge flood), the Delta regions is very vulnerable. The academic circles attach great importance to the multi-source flooding disaster in these areas. The Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration in south China is selected as the research area. Based on analysis of natural and environmental characteristics data of the Delta urban agglomeration(remote sensing data, land use data, topographic map, etc.), hydrological monitoring data, research of the uneven distribution and process of regional rainfall, the relationship between the underlying surface and the parameters of runoff, effect of flood storage pattern, we use an automatic or semi-automatic method for dividing spatial units to reflect the runoff characteristics in urban agglomeration, and develop an Multi-model Ensemble System in changing environment, including urban hydrologic model, parallel computational 1D&2D hydrodynamic model, storm surge forecast model and other professional models, the system will have the abilities like real-time setting a variety of boundary conditions, fast and real-time calculation, dynamic presentation of results, powerful statistical analysis function. The model could be optimized and improved by a variety of verification methods. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41471427); Special Basic Research Key Fund for Central Public Scientific Research Institutes.

Contribution of future urbanisation expansion to flood risk changes

Science.gov (United States)

Bruwier, Martin; Mustafa, Ahmed; Archambeau, Pierre; Erpicum, Sébastien; Pirotton, Michel; Teller, Jacques; Dewals, Benjamin

2016-04-01

The flood risk is expected to increase in the future due to climate change and urban development. Climate change modifies flood hazard and urban development influences exposure and vulnerability to floods. While the influence of climate change on flood risk has been studied widely, the impact of urban development also needs to be considered in a sustainable flood risk management approach. The main goal of this study is the determination of the sensitivity of future flood risk to different urban development scenarios at a relatively short-time horizon in the River Meuse basin in Wallonia (Belgium). From the different scenarios, the expected impact of urban development on flood risk is assessed. Three urban expansion scenarios are developed up to 2030 based on a coupled cellular automata (CA) and agent-based (AB) urban expansion model: (i) business-as-usual, (ii) restrictive and (iii) extreme expansion scenarios. The main factor controlling these scenarios is the future urban land demand. Each urban expansion scenario is developed by considering or not high and/or medium flood hazard zones as a constraint for urban development. To assess the model's performance, it is calibrated for the Meuse River valley (Belgium) to simulate urban expansion between 1990 and 2000. Calibration results are then assessed by comparing the 2000 simulated land-use map and the actual 2000 land-use map. The flood damage estimation for each urban expansion scenario is determined for five flood discharges by overlaying the inundation map resulting from a hydraulic computation and the urban expansion map and by using damage curves and specific prices. The hydraulic model Wolf2D has been extensively validated by comparisons between observations and computational results during flood event .This study focuses only on mobile and immobile prices for urban lands, which are associated to the most severe damages caused by floods along the River Meuse. These findings of this study offers tools to

Flood-inundation maps for the Tippecanoe River near Delphi, Indiana

Science.gov (United States)

Menke, Chad D.; Bunch, Aubrey R.; Kim, Moon H.

2013-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 11-mile reach of the Tippecanoe River that extends from County Road W725N to State Road 18 below Oakdale Dam, Indiana (Ind.), were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Transportation. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at USGS streamgage 03333050, Tippecanoe River near Delphi, Ind. Current conditions at the USGS streamgages in Indiana may be obtained online at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/current/?type=flow. In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often co-located at USGS streamgages. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, water-surface profiles were simulated for the stream reach by means of a hydraulic one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated by using the most current stage-discharge relation at USGS streamgage 03333050, Tippecanoe River near Delphi, Ind., and USGS streamgage 03332605, Tippecanoe River below Oakdale Dam, Ind. The hydraulic model was then used to simulate 13 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-foot intervals reference to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the

GIS-BASED PREDICTION OF HURRICANE FLOOD INUNDATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

JUDI, DAVID [Los Alamos National Laboratory; KALYANAPU, ALFRED [Los Alamos National Laboratory; MCPHERSON, TIMOTHY [Los Alamos National Laboratory; BERSCHEID, ALAN [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2007-01-17

A simulation environment is being developed for the prediction and analysis of the inundation consequences for infrastructure systems from extreme flood events. This decision support architecture includes a GIS-based environment for model input development, simulation integration tools for meteorological, hydrologic, and infrastructure system models and damage assessment tools for infrastructure systems. The GIS-based environment processes digital elevation models (30-m from the USGS), land use/cover (30-m NLCD), stream networks from the National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) and soils data from the NRCS (STATSGO) to create stream network, subbasins, and cross-section shapefiles for drainage basins selected for analysis. Rainfall predictions are made by a numerical weather model and ingested in gridded format into the simulation environment. Runoff hydrographs are estimated using Green-Ampt infiltration excess runoff prediction and a 1D diffusive wave overland flow routing approach. The hydrographs are fed into the stream network and integrated in a dynamic wave routing module using the EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to predict flood depth. The flood depths are then transformed into inundation maps and exported for damage assessment. Hydrologic/hydraulic results are presented for Tropical Storm Allison.

Spatial and Temporal Flood Risk Assessment for Decision Making Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Azizat, Nazirah; Omar, Wan-Mohd-Sabki Wan

2018-03-01

Heavy rainfall, adversely impacting inundation areas, depends on the magnitude of the flood. Significantly, location of settlements, infrastructure and facilities in floodplains result in many regions facing flooding risks. A problem faced by the decision maker in an assessment of flood vulnerability and evaluation of adaptation measures is recurrent flooding in the same areas. Identification of recurrent flooding areas and frequency of floods should be priorities for flood risk management. However, spatial and temporal variability become major factors of uncertainty in flood risk management. Therefore, dynamic and spatial characteristics of these changes in flood impact assessment are important in making decisions about the future of infrastructure development and community life. System dynamics (SD) simulation and hydrodynamic modelling are presented as tools for modelling the dynamic characteristics of flood risk and spatial variability. This paper discusses the integration between spatial and temporal information that is required by the decision maker for the identification of multi-criteria decision problems involving multiple stakeholders.

Aquatic chemistry of flood events

Science.gov (United States)

Klavins, Maris; Rodinov, Valery

2015-04-01

During flood events a major discharge of water and dissolved substances happens. However flood waters very much differs from water composition during low-water events. Aquatic chemistry of flood waters also is of importance at the calculation of loadings as well as they might have major impact on water quality in receiving water bodies (lakes, coastal waters and seas). Further flood regime of rivers is subjected to changes due to climate change and growing impact of human activities. The aim of this study is to analyse water chemical composition changes during flood events in respect to low water periods, character of high-water events and characteristics of the corresponding basin. Within this study, the concentrations of major dissolved substances in the major rivers of Latvia have been studied using monitoring data as well as field studies during high water/ low water events. As territories of studies flows of substances in river basins/subbasins with different land-use character and different anthropogenic impacts has been studied to calculate export values depending on the land-use character. Impact of relations between dissolved substances and relations in respect to budgets has been calculated. The dynamics of DOC, nutrient and major dissolved substance flows depending on landuse pattern and soil properties in Latvia has been described, including emissions by industrial and agricultural production. In these changes evidently climate change signals can be identified. The water chemistry of a large number of rivers during flood events has been determined and the possible impact of water chemical composition on DOC and nutrient flows has been evaluated. Long-term changes (1977-2013) of concentrations of dissolved substances do not follow linear trends but rather show oscillating patterns, indicating impact of natural factors, e.g. changing hydrological and climatic conditions. There is a positive correlation between content of inert dissolved substances and

Tacking Flood Risk from Watersheds using a Natural Flood Risk Management Toolkit

Science.gov (United States)

Reaney, S. M.; Pearson, C.; Barber, N.; Fraser, A.

2017-12-01

In the UK, flood risk management is moving beyond solely mitigating at the point of impact in towns and key infrastructure to tackle problem at source through a range of landscape based intervention measures. This natural flood risk management (NFM) approach has been trailed within a range of catchments in the UK and is moving towards being adopted as a key part of flood risk management. The approach offers advantages including lower cost and co-benefits for water quality and habitat creation. However, for an agency or group wishing to implement NFM within a catchment, there are two key questions that need to be addressed: Where in the catchment to place the measures? And how many measures are needed to be effective? With this toolkit, these questions are assessed with a two-stage workflow. First, SCIMAP-Flood gives a risk based mapping of likely locations that contribute to the flood peak. This tool uses information on land cover, hydrological connectivity, flood generating rainfall patterns and hydrological travel time distributions to impacted communities. The presented example applies the tool to the River Eden catchment, UK, with 5m grid resolution and hence provide sub-field scale information at the landscape extent. SCIMAP-Flood identifies sub-catchments where physically based catchment hydrological simulation models can be applied to test different NFM based mitigation measures. In this example, the CRUM3 catchment hydrological model has been applied within an uncertainty framework to consider the effectiveness of soil compaction reduction and large woody debris dams within a sub-catchment. It was found that large scale soil aeration to reduce soil compaction levels throughout the catchment is probably the most useful natural flood management measure for this catchment. NFM has potential for wide-spread application and these tools help to ensure that the measures are correctly designed and the scheme performance can be quantitatively assessed and predicted.

Accuracy Analysis and Parameters Optimization in Urban Flood Simulation by PEST Model

Science.gov (United States)

Keum, H.; Han, K.; Kim, H.; Ha, C.

2017-12-01

The risk of urban flooding has been increasing due to heavy rainfall, flash flooding and rapid urbanization. Rainwater pumping stations, underground reservoirs are used to actively take measures against flooding, however, flood damage from lowlands continues to occur. Inundation in urban areas has resulted in overflow of sewer. Therefore, it is important to implement a network system that is intricately entangled within a city, similar to the actual physical situation and accurate terrain due to the effects on buildings and roads for accurate two-dimensional flood analysis. The purpose of this study is to propose an optimal scenario construction procedure watershed partitioning and parameterization for urban runoff analysis and pipe network analysis, and to increase the accuracy of flooded area prediction through coupled model. The establishment of optimal scenario procedure was verified by applying it to actual drainage in Seoul. In this study, optimization was performed by using four parameters such as Manning's roughness coefficient for conduits, watershed width, Manning's roughness coefficient for impervious area, Manning's roughness coefficient for pervious area. The calibration range of the parameters was determined using the SWMM manual and the ranges used in the previous studies, and the parameters were estimated using the automatic calibration method PEST. The correlation coefficient showed a high correlation coefficient for the scenarios using PEST. The RPE and RMSE also showed high accuracy for the scenarios using PEST. In the case of RPE, error was in the range of 13.9-28.9% in the no-parameter estimation scenarios, but in the scenario using the PEST, the error range was reduced to 6.8-25.7%. Based on the results of this study, it can be concluded that more accurate flood analysis is possible when the optimum scenario is selected by determining the appropriate reference conduit for future urban flooding analysis and if the results is applied to various

THE ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMICAL LOSS CAUSED BY FLOODS AND FLASH-FLOODS BY USING COMPUTER TECHNIQUES. CASE STUDY: LOPĂTARI VILLAGE, SLĂNIC RIVER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

COSTACHE R.

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The present study aims to provide an example of the assessment of economical loss caused by floods and flash-floods, by integrating GIS techniques of hydraulic and hydrological modelling. The case study was performed in Lopătari village, which is located in the upper area of Slănic River, one of the most affected areas by floods and flash-floods. The flood event produced on 29.V.2012 was considered in order to perform this study. Thus, a flood hydrograph was simulated by using software HEC-HMS 3.5, based on hourly precipitation data from Bisoca meteorological station from 29.V.2012. The peak discharge resulting from the hydrological modelling software was used in HEC-RAS 4.1 hydraulic modelling software in order to determine the extent of flooding band, the number of the affected elements and the local economical loss. Finally, 21 flooded buildings were identified and 550 m of affected road, the estimated economical damage being about 800,000 RON.

Comparing the Performance of Commonly Available Digital Elevation Models in GIS-based Flood Simulation

Science.gov (United States)

Ybanez, R. L.; Lagmay, A. M. A.; David, C. P.

2016-12-01

With climatological hazards increasing globally, the Philippines is listed as one of the most vulnerable countries in the world due to its location in the Western Pacific. Flood hazards mapping and modelling is one of the responses by local government and research institutions to help prepare for and mitigate the effects of flood hazards that constantly threaten towns and cities in floodplains during the 6-month rainy season. Available digital elevation maps, which serve as the most important dataset used in 2D flood modelling, are limited in the Philippines and testing is needed to determine which of the few would work best for flood hazards mapping and modelling. Two-dimensional GIS-based flood modelling with the flood-routing software FLO-2D was conducted using three different available DEMs from the ASTER GDEM, the SRTM GDEM, and the locally available IfSAR DTM. All other parameters kept uniform, such as resolution, soil parameters, rainfall amount, and surface roughness, the three models were run over a 129-sq. kilometer watershed with only the basemap varying. The output flood hazard maps were compared on the basis of their flood distribution, extent, and depth. The ASTER and SRTM GDEMs contained too much error and noise which manifested as dissipated and dissolved hazard areas in the lower watershed where clearly delineated flood hazards should be present. Noise on the two datasets are clearly visible as erratic mounds in the floodplain. The dataset which produced the only feasible flood hazard map is the IfSAR DTM which delineates flood hazard areas clearly and properly. Despite the use of ASTER and SRTM with their published resolution and accuracy, their use in GIS-based flood modelling would be unreliable. Although not as accessible, only IfSAR or better datasets should be used for creating secondary products from these base DEM datasets. For developing countries which are most prone to hazards, but with limited choices for basemaps used in hazards

Emergency Evacuation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents Based on Diffusion Simulation

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Jiang-Hua Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The recent rapid development of information technology, such as sensing technology, communications technology, and database, allows us to use simulation experiments for analyzing serious accidents caused by hazardous chemicals. Due to the toxicity and diffusion of hazardous chemicals, these accidents often lead to not only severe consequences and economic losses, but also traffic jams at the same time. Emergency evacuation after hazardous chemical accidents is an effective means to reduce the loss of life and property and to smoothly resume the transport network as soon as possible. This paper considers the dynamic changes of the hazardous chemicals’ concentration after their leakage and simulates the diffusion process. Based on the characteristics of emergency evacuation of hazardous chemical accidents, we build a mixed-integer programming model and design a heuristic algorithm using network optimization and diffusion simulation (hereafter NODS. We then verify the validity and feasibility of the algorithm using Jinan, China, as a computational example. In the end, we compare the results from different scenarios to explore the key factors affecting the effectiveness of the evacuation process.

Data assimilation of citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping

Science.gov (United States)

Sayama, T.; Takara, K. T.

2017-12-01

Many studies in data assimilation in hydrology have focused on the integration of satellite remote sensing and in-situ monitoring data into hydrologic or land surface models. For flood predictions also, recent studies have demonstrated to assimilate remotely sensed inundation information with flood inundation models. In actual flood disaster situations, citizen collected information including local reports by residents and rescue teams and more recently tweets via social media also contain valuable information. The main interest of this study is how to effectively use such citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping. Here we propose a new data assimilation technique based on pre-conducted ensemble inundation simulations and update inundation depth distributions sequentially when local data becomes available. The propose method is composed by the following two-steps. The first step is based on weighting average of preliminary ensemble simulations, whose weights are updated by Bayesian approach. The second step is based on an optimal interpolation, where the covariance matrix is calculated from the ensemble simulations. The proposed method was applied to case studies including an actual flood event occurred. It considers two situations with more idealized one by assuming continuous flood inundation depth information is available at multiple locations. The other one, which is more realistic case during such a severe flood disaster, assumes uncertain and non-continuous information is available to be assimilated. The results show that, in the first idealized situation, the large scale inundation during the flooding was estimated reasonably with RMSE effective. Nevertheless, the applications of the proposed data assimilation method demonstrated a high potential of this method for assimilating citizen collected information for real-time flood hazard mapping in the future.

An Application of a Stochastic Semi-Continuous Simulation Method for Flood Frequency Analysis: A Case Study in Slovakia

Science.gov (United States)

Valent, Peter; Paquet, Emmanuel

2017-09-01

A reliable estimate of extreme flood characteristics has always been an active topic in hydrological research. Over the decades a large number of approaches and their modifications have been proposed and used, with various methods utilizing continuous simulation of catchment runoff, being the subject of the most intensive research in the last decade. In this paper a new and promising stochastic semi-continuous method is used to estimate extreme discharges in two mountainous Slovak catchments of the rivers Váh and Hron, in which snow-melt processes need to be taken into account. The SCHADEX method used, couples a precipitation probabilistic model with a rainfall-runoff model used to both continuously simulate catchment hydrological conditions and to transform generated synthetic rainfall events into corresponding discharges. The stochastic nature of the method means that a wide range of synthetic rainfall events were simulated on various historical catchment conditions, taking into account not only the saturation of soil, but also the amount of snow accumulated in the catchment. The results showed that the SCHADEX extreme discharge estimates with return periods of up to 100 years were comparable to those estimated by statistical approaches. In addition, two reconstructed historical floods with corresponding return periods of 100 and 1000 years were compared to the SCHADEX estimates. The results confirmed the usability of the method for estimating design discharges with a recurrence interval of more than 100 years and its applicability in Slovak conditions.

Global off-line evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP flood model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decharme, B.; Alkama, R.; Faroux, S.; Douville, H. [GAME-CNRM/CNRS - Meteo-France, Toulouse (France); Papa, F. [NOAA-CREST, City College of New York, New York, NY (United States); Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement IRD-LEGOS, Toulouse (France); Prigent, C. [CNRS/Laboratoire d' Etudes du Rayonnement et de la Matiere en Astrophysique, Observatoire de Paris, Paris (France)

2012-04-15

This study presents an off-line global evaluation of the ISBA-TRIP hydrological model including a two-way flood scheme. The flood dynamics is indeed described through the daily coupling between the ISBA land surface model and the TRIP river routing model including a prognostic flood reservoir. This reservoir fills when the river height exceeds the critical river bankfull height and vice versa. The flood interacts with the soil hydrology through infiltration and with the overlying atmosphere through precipitation interception and free water surface evaporation. The model is evaluated over a relatively long period (1986-2006) at 1 resolution using the Princeton University 3-hourly atmospheric forcing. Four simulations are performed in order to assess the model sensitivity to the river bankfull height. The evaluation is made against satellite-derived global inundation estimates as well as in situ river discharge observations at 122 gauging stations. First, the results show a reasonable simulation of the global distribution of simulated floodplains when compared to satellite-derived estimates. At basin scale, the comparison reveals some discrepancies, both in terms of climatology and interannual variability, but the results remain acceptable for a simple large-scale model. In addition, the simulated river discharges are improved in term of efficiency scores for more than 50% of the 122 stations and deteriorated for 4% only. Two mechanisms mainly explain this positive impact: an increase in evapotranspiration that limits the annual discharge overestimation found when flooding is not taking into account and a smoothed river peak flow when the floodplain storage is significant. Finally, the sensitivity experiments suggest that the river bankfull depth is potentially tunable according to the river discharge scores to control the accuracy of the simulated flooded areas and its related increase in land surface evaporation. Such a tuning could be relevant at least for climate

A study of Water flooding modeling for DMFC at cathode channel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, Sang Keun; Yoo, Ki Soo; Lee, Dae Keun; Chung, Myung Kyoon

2007-01-01

The present paper addresses the water flooding model validation in cathode channel for DMFC. Water flooding not only reduces DMFC stack performance but also causes O 2 starve that damages membrane at cathode channel. Although the water flooding problem is critical in operating DMFC, it has not been resolved yet since the effect of temperature, H 2 O vapor and liquid partial pressure effects on the H 2 O vapor saturation is very complex. Therefore, the operating feasible range in the dynamic control of DMFC is inevitably narrow. In order to be able to dynamically control the DMFC to prevent water flooding problem at cathode channel, 3D numerical model was validated by comparison with experimental result. We performed numerical simulation for a wide range of Vcell - current density for 1 layer-1 cell DMFC and the results were compared with experimental data. It was found that the 3D simulation model for the DMFC can be used to accurately predict the water flooding at cathode channel

Climatic and basin factors affecting the flood frequency curve: PART I – A simple sensitivity analysis based on the continuous simulation approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Hashemi

2000-01-01

Full Text Available Regionalized and at-site flood frequency curves exhibit considerable variability in their shapes, but the factors controlling the variability (other than sampling effects are not well understood. An application of the Monte Carlo simulation-based derived distribution approach is presented in this two-part paper to explore the influence of climate, described by simulated rainfall and evapotranspiration time series, and basin factors on the flood frequency curve (ffc. The sensitivity analysis conducted in the paper should not be interpreted as reflecting possible climate changes, but the results can provide an indication of the changes to which the flood frequency curve might be sensitive. A single site Neyman Scott point process model of rainfall, with convective and stratiform cells (Cowpertwait, 1994; 1995, has been employed to generate synthetic rainfall inputs to a rainfall runoff model. The time series of the potential evapotranspiration (ETp demand has been represented through an AR(n model with seasonal component, while a simplified version of the ARNO rainfall-runoff model (Todini, 1996 has been employed to simulate the continuous discharge time series. All these models have been parameterised in a realistic manner using observed data and results from previous applications, to obtain ‘reference’ parameter sets for a synthetic case study. Subsequently, perturbations to the model parameters have been made one-at-a-time and the sensitivities of the generated annual maximum rainfall and flood frequency curves (unstandardised, and standardised by the mean have been assessed. Overall, the sensitivity analysis described in this paper suggests that the soil moisture regime, and, in particular, the probability distribution of soil moisture content at the storm arrival time, can be considered as a unifying link between the perturbations to the several parameters and their effects on the standardised and unstandardised ffcs, thus revealing the

Flood Risk and Probabilistic Benefit Assessment to Support Management of Flood-Prone Lands: Evidence From Candaba Floodplains, Philippines

Science.gov (United States)

Juarez, A. M.; Kibler, K. M.; Sayama, T.; Ohara, M.

2016-12-01

Flood management decision-making is often supported by risk assessment, which may overlook the role of coping capacity and the potential benefits derived from direct use of flood-prone land. Alternatively, risk-benefit analysis can support floodplain management to yield maximum socio-ecological benefits for the minimum flood risk. We evaluate flood risk-probabilistic benefit tradeoffs of livelihood practices compatible with direct human use of flood-prone land (agriculture/wild fisheries) and nature conservation (wild fisheries only) in Candaba, Philippines. Located north-west to Metro Manila, Candaba area is a multi-functional landscape that provides a temporally-variable mix of possible land uses, benefits and ecosystem services of local and regional value. To characterize inundation from 1.3- to 100-year recurrence intervals we couple frequency analysis with rainfall-runoff-inundation modelling and remotely-sensed data. By combining simulated probabilistic floods with both damage and benefit functions (e.g. fish capture and rice yield with flood intensity) we estimate potential damages and benefits over varying probabilistic flood hazards. We find that although direct human uses of flood-prone land are associated with damages, for all the investigated magnitudes of flood events with different frequencies, the probabilistic benefits ( 91 million) exceed risks by a large margin ( 33 million). Even considering risk, probabilistic livelihood benefits of direct human uses far exceed benefits provided by scenarios that exclude direct "risky" human uses (difference of 85 million). In addition, we find that individual coping strategies, such as adapting crop planting periods to the flood pulse or fishing rather than cultivating rice in the wet season, minimize flood losses ( 6 million) while allowing for valuable livelihood benefits ($ 125 million) in flood-prone land. Analysis of societal benefits and local capacities to cope with regular floods demonstrate the

Flood Inundation Modelling in the Kuantan River Basin using 1D-2D Flood Modeller coupled with ASTER-GDEM

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, Z. F.; Gisen, J. I.; Akbari, A.

2018-03-01

Topography dataset is an important input in performing flood inundation modelling. However, it is always difficult to obtain high resolution topography that provide accurate elevation information. Fortunately, there are some open source topography datasets available with reasonable resolution such as SRTM and ASTER-GDEM. In Malaysia particularly in Kuantan, the modelling research on the floodplain area is still lacking. This research aims to: a) to investigate the suitability of ASTER-GDEM to be applied in the 1D-2D flood inundation modelling for the Kuantan River Basin; b) to generate flood inundation map for Kuantan river basin. The topography dataset used in this study is ASTER-GDEM to generate physical characteristics of watershed in the basin. It is used to perform rainfall runoff modelling for hydrological studies and to delineate flood inundation area in the Flood Modeller. The results obtained have shown that a 30m resolution ASTER-GDEM is applicable as an input for the 1D-2D flood modelling. The simulated water level in 2013 has NSE of 0.644 and RSME of 1.259. As a conclusion, ASTER-GDEM can be used as one alternative topography datasets for flood inundation modelling. However, the flood level obtained from the hydraulic modelling shows low accuracy at flat urban areas.

DYNSIR; A dynamic simulator for the chemical process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Hyun Soo; Yoo, Jae Hyung; Byeon, Kee Hoh; Park, Jeong Hwa; Park, Seong Won

1990-03-01

A program code for dynamic simulation of arbitrary chemical process, called DYNSIR, is developed. The code can simulate rather arbitrary arrangements of individual chemical processing units whose models are described by ordinary differential equations. The code structure to handle input/output, memory and data management, numerical interactive or predetermined changes in parameter values during the simulation. Individual model is easy to maintain since the modular approach is used. The integration routine is highly effective because of the development of algorithm for modular integration method using the cubic spline. DYNSIR's data structures are not the index but the pointer structure. This pointer structure allows the dynamic memory allocation for the memory management. The dynamic memory allocation methods is to minimize the amount of memories and to overcome the limitation of the number of variables to be used. Finally, it includes various functions, such as the input preprocessor, the effective error processing, and plotting and reporting routines. (author)

Prediction of polymer flooding performance using an analytical method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan Czek Hoong; Mariyamni Awang; Foo Kok Wai

2001-01-01

The study investigated the applicability of an analytical method developed by El-Khatib in polymer flooding. Results from a simulator UTCHEM and experiments were compared with the El-Khatib prediction method. In general, by assuming a constant viscosity polymer injection, the method gave much higher recovery values than the simulation runs and the experiments. A modification of the method gave better correlation, albeit only oil production. Investigation is continuing on modifying the method so that a better overall fit can be obtained for polymer flooding. (Author)

Using microfinance for flood mitigation and climate adaptation in Bangladesh

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Srivatsav, N.; Jaxa-Rozen, M.; Van Staveren, R.

2014-01-01

This draft paper describes the preliminary outcomes of a model-based investigation of longterm strategies to reduce the impacts of coastal flooding in Bangladesh. Specifically, a system dynamics model was constructed to simulate the effect of flood mitigation methods on the population, rural

Numerical simulation of flood inundation using a well-balanced kinetic scheme for the shallow water equations with bulk recharge and discharge

Science.gov (United States)

Ersoy, Mehmet; Lakkis, Omar; Townsend, Philip

2016-04-01

The flow of water in rivers and oceans can, under general assumptions, be efficiently modelled using Saint-Venant's shallow water system of equations (SWE). SWE is a hyperbolic system of conservation laws (HSCL) which can be derived from a starting point of incompressible Navier-Stokes. A common difficulty in the numerical simulation of HSCLs is the conservation of physical entropy. Work by Audusse, Bristeau, Perthame (2000) and Perthame, Simeoni (2001), proposed numerical SWE solvers known as kinetic schemes (KSs), which can be shown to have desirable entropy-consistent properties, and are thus called well-balanced schemes. A KS is derived from kinetic equations that can be integrated into the SWE. In flood risk assessment models the SWE must be coupled with other equations describing interacting meteorological and hydrogeological phenomena such as rain and groundwater flows. The SWE must therefore be appropriately modified to accommodate source and sink terms, so kinetic schemes are no longer valid. While modifications of SWE in this direction have been recently proposed, e.g., Delestre (2010), we depart from the extant literature by proposing a novel model that is "entropy-consistent" and naturally extends the SWE by respecting its kinetic formulation connections. This allows us to derive a system of partial differential equations modelling flow of a one-dimensional river with both a precipitation term and a groundwater flow model to account for potential infiltration and recharge. We exhibit numerical simulations of the corresponding kinetic schemes. These simulations can be applied to both real world flood prediction and the tackling of wider issues on how climate and societal change are affecting flood risk.

Operational High Resolution Chemical Kinetics Simulation, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Numerical simulations of chemical kinetics are critical to addressing urgent issues in both the developed and developing world. Ongoing demand for higher resolution...

Concentration-discharge relationships during an extreme event: Contrasting behavior of solutes and changes to chemical quality of dissolved organic material in the Boulder Creek Watershed during the September 2013 flood: SOLUTE FLUX IN A FLOOD EVENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rue, Garrett P. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Rock, Nathan D. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Gabor, Rachel S. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Pitlick, John [Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA; Tfaily, Malak [Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington USA; McKnight, Diane M. [Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder Colorado USA

2017-07-01

During the week of September 10-17, 2013, close to 20 inches of rain fell across Boulder County, Colorado, USA. This rainfall represented a 1000-year event that caused massive hillslope erosion, landslides, and mobilization of sediments. The resultant stream flows corresponded to a 100-year flood. For the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory (BC-CZO), this event provided an opportunity to study the effect of extreme rainfall on solute concentration-discharge relationships and biogeochemical catchment processes. We observed base cation and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations at two sites on Boulder Creek following the recession of peak flow. We also isolated three distinct fractions of dissolved organic matter (DOM) for chemical characterization. At the upper site, which represented the forested mountain catchment, the concentrations of the base cations Ca, Mg and Na were greatest at the peak flood and decreased only slightly, in contrast with DOC and K concentrations, which decreased substantially. At the lower site within urban corridor, all solutes decreased abruptly after the first week of flow recession, with base cation concentrations stabilizing while DOC and K continued to decrease. Additionally, we found significant spatiotemporal trends in the chemical quality of organic matter exported during the flood recession, as measured by fluorescence, 13C-NMR spectroscopy, and FTICR-MS. Similar to the effect of extreme rainfall events in driving landslides and mobilizing sediments, our findings suggest that such events mobilize solutes by the flushing of the deeper layers of the critical zone, and that this flushing regulates terrestrial-aquatic biogeochemical linkages during the flow recession.

Planning of technical flood retention measures in large river basins under consideration of imprecise probabilities of multivariate hydrological loads

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Nijssen

2009-08-01

Full Text Available As a result of the severe floods in Europe at the turn of the millennium, the ongoing shift from safety oriented flood control towards flood risk management was accelerated. With regard to technical flood control measures it became evident that the effectiveness of flood control measures depends on many different factors, which cannot be considered with single events used as design floods for planning. The multivariate characteristics of the hydrological loads have to be considered to evaluate complex flood control measures. The effectiveness of spatially distributed flood control systems differs for varying flood events. Event-based characteristics such as the spatial distribution of precipitation, the shape and volume of the resulting flood waves or the interactions of flood waves with the technical elements, e.g. reservoirs and flood polders, result in varying efficiency of these systems. Considering these aspects a flood control system should be evaluated with a broad range of hydrological loads to get a realistic assessment of its performance under different conditions. The consideration of this variety in flood control planning design was one particular aim of this study. Hydrological loads were described by multiple criteria. A statistical characterization of these criteria is difficult, since the data base is often not sufficient to analyze the variety of possible events. Hydrological simulations were used to solve this problem. Here a deterministic-stochastic flood generator was developed and applied to produce a large quantity of flood events which can be used as scenarios of possible hydrological loads. However, these simulations imply many uncertainties. The results will be biased by the basic assumptions of the modeling tools. In flood control planning probabilities are applied to characterize uncertainties. The probabilities of the simulated flood scenarios differ from probabilities which would be derived from long time series

Building Adjustable Pre-storm Reservoir Flood-control Release Rules

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Shun-Nien; Chang, Li-Chiu; Chang, Fi-John; Hsieh, Cheng-Daw

2017-04-01

Typhoons hit Taiwan several times every year, which could cause serious flood disasters. Because mountainous terrains and steep landforms can rapidly accelerate the speed of flood flow during typhoon events, rivers cannot be a stable source of water supply. Reservoirs become the most effective floodwater storage facilities for alleviating flood damages in Taiwan. The pre-storm flood-control release can significantly increase reservoir storage capacity available to store floodwaters for reducing downstream flood damage, while the uncertainties of total forecasted rainfalls are very high in different stages of an oncoming typhoon, which may cause the risk of water shortage in the future. This study proposes adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules in three designed operating stages with various hydrological conditions in the Feitsui Reservoir, a pivot reservoir for water supply to Taipei metropolitan in Taiwan, not only to reduce the risk of reservoir flood control and downstream flooding but also to consider water supply. The three operating stages before an oncoming typhoon are defined upon the timings when: (1) typhoon news is issued (3-7days before typhoon hit); (2) the sea warning is issued (2-4 days before typhoon hit); and (3) the land warning is issued (1-2 days before typhoon hit). We simulate 95 historical typhoon events with 3000 initial water levels and build some pre-storm flood-control release rules to adjust the amount of pre-release based on the total forecasted rainfalls at different operating stages. A great number of simulations (68.4 millions) are conducted to extract their major consequences and then build the adjustable pre-storm reservoir flood-control release rules. Accordingly, given a total forecasted rainfall and a water level, reservoir decision makers can easily identify the corresponding rule to tell the amount of pre-release in any stage. The results show that the proposed adjustable pre-release rules can effectively

Green River Formation Water Flood Demonstration Project: Final report. [October 21, 1992-April, 30, 1996

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deo, M.D. [Dept. of Chemical and Fuels Engineering, University of Utah, Salt Lake City (US); Dyer, J.E.; Lomax, J.D. [Inland Resources, Inc., Lomax Exploration Co., Salt Lake City, UT (US); Nielson, D.L.; Lutz, S.J. [Energy and Geoscience Institute at the University of Utah, Salt Lake City (US)

1996-11-01

The objectives were to understand the oil production mechanisms in the Monument Butte unit via reservoir characterization and reservoir simulations and to transfer the water flooding technology to similar units in the vicinity, particularly the Travis and the Boundary units. Comprehensive reservoir characterization and reservoir simulations of the Monument Butte, Travis and Boundary units were presented in the two published project yearly reports. The primary and the secondary production from the Monument Butte unit were typical of oil production from an undersaturated oil reservoir close to its bubble point. The water flood in the smaller Travis unit appeared affected by natural and possibly by large interconnecting hydraulic fractures. Water flooding the boundary unit was considered more complicated due to the presence of an oil water contact in one of the wells. The reservoir characterization activity in the project basically consisted of extraction and analysis of a full diameter c ore, Formation Micro Imaging logs from several wells and Magnetic Resonance Imaging logs from two wells. In addition, several side-wall cores were drilled and analyzed, oil samples from a number of wells were physically and chemically characterized (using gas chromatography), oil-water relative permeabilities were measured and pour points and cloud points of a few oil samples were determined. The reservoir modeling activity comprised of reservoir simulation of all the three units at different scales and near well-bore modeling of the wax precipitation effects. The reservoir characterization efforts identified new reservoirs in the Travis and the Boundary units. The reservoir simulation activities established the extent of pressurization of the sections of the reservoirs in the immediate vicinity of the Monument Butte unit. This resulted in a major expansion of the unit and the production from this expanded unit increased from about 300 barrels per day to about 2000 barrels per day.

Green River Formation Water Flood Demonstration Project: Final report, October 21, 1992-April, 30, 1996

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Deo, M.D.; Dyer, J.E.; Lomax, J.D.; Nielson, D.L.; Lutz, S.J.

1996-01-01

The objectives were to understand the oil production mechanisms in the Monument Butte unit via reservoir characterization and reservoir simulations and to transfer the water flooding technology to similar units in the vicinity, particularly the Travis and the Boundary units. Comprehensive reservoir characterization and reservoir simulations of the Monument Butte, Travis and Boundary units were presented in the two published project yearly reports. The primary and the secondary production from the Monument Butte unit were typical of oil production from an undersaturated oil reservoir close to its bubble point. The water flood in the smaller Travis unit appeared affected by natural and possibly by large interconnecting hydraulic fractures. Water flooding the boundary unit was considered more complicated due to the presence of an oil water contact in one of the wells. The reservoir characterization activity in the project basically consisted of extraction and analysis of a full diameter c ore, Formation Micro Imaging logs from several wells and Magnetic Resonance Imaging logs from two wells. In addition, several side-wall cores were drilled and analyzed, oil samples from a number of wells were physically and chemically characterized (using gas chromatography), oil-water relative permeabilities were measured and pour points and cloud points of a few oil samples were determined. The reservoir modeling activity comprised of reservoir simulation of all the three units at different scales and near well-bore modeling of the wax precipitation effects. The reservoir characterization efforts identified new reservoirs in the Travis and the Boundary units. The reservoir simulation activities established the extent of pressurization of the sections of the reservoirs in the immediate vicinity of the Monument Butte unit. This resulted in a major expansion of the unit and the production from this expanded unit increased from about 300 barrels per day to about 2000 barrels per day

Assimilation of flood extent data with 2D flood inundation models for localised intense rainfall events

Science.gov (United States)

Neal, J. C.; Wood, M.; Bermúdez, M.; Hostache, R.; Freer, J. E.; Bates, P. D.; Coxon, G.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing of flood inundation extent has long been a potential source of data for constraining and correcting simulations of floodplain inundation. Hydrodynamic models and the computing resources to run them have developed to the extent that simulation of flood inundation in two-dimensional space is now feasible over large river basins in near real-time. However, despite substantial evidence that there is useful information content within inundation extent data, even from low resolution SAR such as that gathered by Envisat ASAR in wide swath mode, making use of the information in a data assimilation system has proved difficult. He we review recent applications of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter for assimilating SAR data, with a focus on the River Severn UK and compare these with complementary research that has looked at the internal error sources and boundary condition errors using detailed terrestrial data that is not available in most locations. Previous applications of the EnKF to this reach have focused on upstream boundary conditions as the source of flow error, however this description of errors was too simplistic for the simulation of summer flood events where localised intense rainfall can be substantial. Therefore, we evaluate the introduction of uncertain lateral inflows to the ensemble. A further limitation of the existing EnKF based methods is the need to convert flood extent to water surface elevations by intersecting the shoreline location with a high quality digital elevation model (e.g. LiDAR). To simplify this data processing step, we evaluate a method to directly assimilate inundation extent as a EnKF model state rather than assimilating water heights, potentially allowing the scheme to be used where high-quality terrain data are sparse.

Hydrological and meteorological aspects of floods in the Alps: an overview

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Baldassare Bacchi

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This introductory paper presents and summarises recent research on meteorological and hydrological aspects of floods in the Alps. The research activities were part of the international research project RAPHAEL (Runoff and Atmospheric Processes for flood HAzard forEcasting and controL together with experiments within the Special Observing Period-SOP conducted in autumn 1999 for the Mesoscale Alpine Programme —MAP. The investigations were based on both field experiments and numerical simulations, using meteorological and hydrological models, of ten major floods that occurred in the past decade in the European Alps. The two basins investigated were the Ticino (6599 km2 at the Lago Maggiore outlet on the southern side of the Alps and the Ammer catchment (709 km2 in the Bavarian Alps. These catchments and their sub-catchments cover an appropriate range of spatial scales with which to investigate and test in an operational context the potential of both mesoscale meteorological and distributed hydrological models for flood forecasting. From the data analyses and model simulations described in this Special Issue, the major sources of uncertainties for flood forecasts in mid-size mountain basins are outlined and the accuracy flood forecasts is assessed. Keywords: floods, mountain hydrology, meteorological models, Alps

Effect of stratification on segregation in carbon dioxide miscible flooding in a water-flooded oil reservoir

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bhatti, A.A.; Mahmood, S.M.; Amjad, B.

2013-01-01

Oil reservoirs are subjected to tertiary recovery by deploying any enhanced oil recovery (EOR) technique for the recovery of left over oil. Amongst many EOR methods one of the widely applied worldwide is CO/sub 2/ flooding through miscible, near miscible or immiscible displacement processes. CO/sub 2/ flooding process responds to a number of reservoir and fluid characteristics. These characteristics have strong effect on overall efficiency of the displacement process. Better understanding of the effect of different characteristics on displacement process is important to plan an efficient displacement process. In this work, the effect of stratification resulting in gravity segregation of the injected fluid is studied in an oil reservoir which is water-flooded during secondary phase of recovery. Sensitivity analysis is performed through successive simulation on Eclipse 300 (compositional) reservoir simulator. Process involves the continuous CO/sub 2/ injection in an oil reservoir with more than 1/3rd of original oil in place left after water flooding. Reservoir model with four different permeability layers is studied. Four patterns by changing the arrangement of the permeabilities of the layers are analysed. The effect of different arrangement or stratification on segregation of CO/sub 2/ and ultimately on the incremental oil recovery, is investigated. It has been observed that out of four arrangements, upward fining pattern relatively overcame the issue of the segregation of CO/sub 2/ and consequently 33% more oil with half injection volume is recovered when compared with the downward fining pattern. (author)

Molecular dynamics simulations of solutions at constant chemical potential

Science.gov (United States)

Perego, C.; Salvalaglio, M.; Parrinello, M.

2015-04-01

Molecular dynamics studies of chemical processes in solution are of great value in a wide spectrum of applications, which range from nano-technology to pharmaceutical chemistry. However, these calculations are affected by severe finite-size effects, such as the solution being depleted as the chemical process proceeds, which influence the outcome of the simulations. To overcome these limitations, one must allow the system to exchange molecules with a macroscopic reservoir, thus sampling a grand-canonical ensemble. Despite the fact that different remedies have been proposed, this still represents a key challenge in molecular simulations. In the present work, we propose the Constant Chemical Potential Molecular Dynamics (CμMD) method, which introduces an external force that controls the environment of the chemical process of interest. This external force, drawing molecules from a finite reservoir, maintains the chemical potential constant in the region where the process takes place. We have applied the CμMD method to the paradigmatic case of urea crystallization in aqueous solution. As a result, we have been able to study crystal growth dynamics under constant supersaturation conditions and to extract growth rates and free-energy barriers.

Error Analysis of Satellite Precipitation-Driven Modeling of Flood Events in Complex Alpine Terrain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yiwen Mei

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The error in satellite precipitation-driven complex terrain flood simulations is characterized in this study for eight different global satellite products and 128 flood events over the Eastern Italian Alps. The flood events are grouped according to two flood types: rain floods and flash floods. The satellite precipitation products and runoff simulations are evaluated based on systematic and random error metrics applied on the matched event pairs and basin-scale event properties (i.e., rainfall and runoff cumulative depth and time series shape. Overall, error characteristics exhibit dependency on the flood type. Generally, timing of the event precipitation mass center and dispersion of the time series derived from satellite precipitation exhibits good agreement with the reference; the cumulative depth is mostly underestimated. The study shows a dampening effect in both systematic and random error components of the satellite-driven hydrograph relative to the satellite-retrieved hyetograph. The systematic error in shape of the time series shows a significant dampening effect. The random error dampening effect is less pronounced for the flash flood events and the rain flood events with a high runoff coefficient. This event-based analysis of the satellite precipitation error propagation in flood modeling sheds light on the application of satellite precipitation in mountain flood hydrology.

Flood forecasting and early warning system for Dungun River Basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hafiz, I; Sidek, L M; Basri, H; Fukami, K; Hanapi, M N; Livia, L; Nor, M D

2013-01-01

Floods can bring such disasters to the affected dweller due to loss of properties, crops and even deaths. The damages to properties and crops by the severe flooding are occurred due to the increase in the economic value of the properties as well as the extent of the flood. Flood forecasting and warning system is one of the examples of the non-structural measures which can give early warning to the affected people. People who live near the flood-prone areas will be warned so that they can evacuate themselves and their belongings before the arrival of the flood. This can considerably reduce flood loss and damage and above all, the loss of human lives. Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS) model is a runoff analysis model converting rainfall into runoff for a given river basin. The simulation can be done using either ground or satellite-based rainfall to produce calculated discharge within the river. The calculated discharge is used to generate the flood inundation map within the catchment area for the selected flood event using Infowork RS.

Methods and tools to support real time risk-based flood forecasting - a UK pilot application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brown Emma

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Flood managers have traditionally used probabilistic models to assess potential flood risk for strategic planning and non-operational applications. Computational restrictions on data volumes and simulation times have meant that information on the risk of flooding has not been available for operational flood forecasting purposes. In practice, however, the operational flood manager has probabilistic questions to answer, which are not completely supported by the outputs of traditional, deterministic flood forecasting systems. In a collaborative approach, HR Wallingford and Deltares have developed methods, tools and techniques to extend existing flood forecasting systems with elements of strategic flood risk analysis, including probabilistic failure analysis, two dimensional flood spreading simulation and the analysis of flood impacts and consequences. This paper presents the results of the application of these new operational flood risk management tools to a pilot catchment in the UK. It discusses the problems of performing probabilistic flood risk assessment in real time and how these have been addressed in this study. It also describes the challenges of the communication of risk to operational flood managers and to the general public, and how these new methods and tools can provide risk-based supporting evidence to assist with this process.

Chemical warfare agent simulants for human volunteer trials of emergency decontamination: A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

James, Thomas; Wyke, Stacey; Marczylo, Tim; Collins, Samuel; Gaulton, Tom; Foxall, Kerry; Amlôt, Richard; Duarte-Davidson, Raquel

2018-01-01

Incidents involving the release of chemical agents can pose significant risks to public health. In such an event, emergency decontamination of affected casualties may need to be undertaken to reduce injury and possible loss of life. To ensure these methods are effective, human volunteer trials (HVTs) of decontamination protocols, using simulant contaminants, have been conducted. Simulants must be used to mimic the physicochemical properties of more harmful chemicals, while remaining non-toxic at the dose applied. This review focuses on studies that employed chemical warfare agent simulants in decontamination contexts, to identify those simulants most suitable for use in HVTs of emergency decontamination. Twenty-two simulants were identified, of which 17 were determined unsuitable for use in HVTs. The remaining simulants (n = 5) were further scrutinized for potential suitability according to toxicity, physicochemical properties and similarities to their equivalent toxic counterparts. Three suitable simulants, for use in HVTs were identified; methyl salicylate (simulant for sulphur mustard), diethyl malonate (simulant for soman) and malathion (simulant for VX or toxic industrial chemicals). All have been safely used in previous HVTs, and have a range of physicochemical properties that would allow useful inference to more toxic chemicals when employed in future studies of emergency decontamination systems. © 2017 Crown Copyright. Journal of Applied Toxicology published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Attribution of floods in the Okavango basin, Southern Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Wolski, Piotr; Stone, Dáithí; Tadross, Mark; Wehner, Michael; Hewitson, Bruce

2014-04-01

In the charismatic wetlands of the Okavango Delta, Botswana, the annual floods of 2009-2011 reached magnitudes last seen 20-30 years ago, considerably affecting life of local populations and the economically important tourism industry. In this study, we analyse results from an attribution modelling system designed to examine how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to weather and flood risk in our current climate. The system is based on comparison of real world climate and hydrological simulations with parallel counterfactual simulations of the climate and hydrological responses under conditions that might have been had human activities not emitted greenhouse gases. The analyses allow us to address the question of whether anthropogenic climate change contributed to increasing the risk of these high flood events in the Okavango system. Results show that the probability of occurrence of high floods during 2009-2011 in the current climate is likely lower than it would have been in a climate without anthropogenic greenhouse gases. This result is robust across the two climate models and various data processing procedures, although the exact figures for the associated decrease in risk differ. Results also differ between the three years examined, indicating that the “time-slice” method used here needs to be applied to multiple years in order to accurately estimate the contribution of emissions to current risk. Simple sensitivity analyses indicate that the reduction in flood risk is attributed to higher temperatures (and thus evaporation) in the current world, with little difference in the analysed domain's rainfall simulated in the two scenarios.

Application of flood-intensity-duration curve, rainfall-intensity-duration curve and time of concentration to analyze the pattern of storms and their corresponding floods for the natural flood events

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Nam Won; Shin, Mun-Ju; Lee, Jeong Eun

2016-04-01

The analysis of storm effects on floods is essential step for designing hydraulic structure and flood plain. There are previous studies for analyzing the relationship between the storm patterns and peak flow, flood volume and durations for various sizes of the catchments, but they are not enough to analyze the natural storm effects on flood responses quantitatively. This study suggests a novel method of quantitative analysis using unique factors extracted from the time series of storms and floods to investigate the relationship between natural storms and their corresponding flood responses. We used a distributed rainfall-runoff model of Grid based Rainfall-runoff Model (GRM) to generate the simulated flow and areal rainfall for 50 catchments in Republic of Korea size from 5.6 km2 to 1584.2 km2, which are including overlapped dependent catchments and non-overlapped independent catchments. The parameters of the GRM model were calibrated to get the good model performances of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. Then Flood-Intensity-Duration Curve (FIDC) and Rainfall-Intensity-Duration Curve (RIDC) were generated by Flood-Duration-Frequency and Intensity-Duration-Frequency methods respectively using the time series of hydrographs and hyetographs. Time of concentration developed for the Korea catchments was used as a consistent measure to extract the unique factors from the FIDC and RIDC over the different size of catchments. These unique factors for the storms and floods were analyzed against the different size of catchments to investigate the natural storm effects on floods. This method can be easily used to get the intuition of the natural storm effects with various patterns on flood responses. Acknowledgement This research was supported by a grant (11-TI-C06) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

Hydrological Modelling using HEC-HMS for Flood Risk Assessment of Segamat Town, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Romali, N. S.; Yusop, Z.; Ismail, A. Z.

2018-03-01

This paper presents an assessment of the applicability of using Hydrologic Modelling System developed by the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC-HMS) for hydrological modelling of Segamat River. The objective of the model application is to assist in the assessment of flood risk by providing the peak flows of 2011 Segamat flood for the generation of flood mapping of Segamat town. The capability of the model was evaluated by comparing the historical observed data with the simulation results of the selected flood events. The model calibration and validation efficiency was verified using Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient. The results demonstrate the interest to implement the hydrological model for assessing flood risk where the simulated peak flow result is in agreement with historical observed data. The model efficiency of the calibrated and validated exercises is 0.90 and 0.76 respectively, which is acceptable.

Improving Chemical EOR Simulations and Reducing the Subsurface Uncertainty Using Downscaling Conditioned to Tracer Data

KAUST Repository

Torrealba, Victor A.

2017-10-02

Recovery mechanisms are more likely to be influenced by grid-block size and reservoir heterogeneity in Chemical EOR (CEOR) than in conventional Water Flood (WF) simulations. Grid upscaling based on single-phase flow is a common practice in WF simulation models, where simulation grids are coarsened to perform history matching and sensitivity analyses within affordable computational times. This coarse grid resolution (typically about 100 ft.) could be sufficient in WF, however, it usually fails to capture key physical mechanisms in CEOR. In addition to increased numerical dispersion in coarse models, these models tend to artificially increase the level of mixing between the fluids and may not have enough resolution to capture different length scales of geological features to which EOR processes can be highly sensitive. As a result of which, coarse models usually overestimate the sweep efficiency, and underestimate the displacement efficiency. Grid refinement (simple downscaling) can resolve artificial mixing but appropriately re-creating the fine-scale heterogeneity, without degrading the history-match conducted on the coarse-scale, remains a challenge. Because of the difference in recovery mechanisms involved in CEOR, such as miscibility and thermodynamic phase split, the impact of grid downscaling on CEOR simulations is not well understood. In this work, we introduce a geostatistical downscaling method conditioned to tracer data to refine a coarse history-matched WF model. This downscaling process is necessary for CEOR simulations when the original (fine) earth model is not available or when major disconnects occur between the original earth model and the history-matched coarse WF model. The proposed downscaling method is a process of refining the coarse grid, and populating the relevant properties in the newly created finer grid cells. The method considers the values of rock properties in the coarse grid as hard data, and the corresponding variograms and property

Water mobility key to improved floods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pamenter, C B

1967-03-01

The use of polymer floods in the U.S. and Canada is discussed. A 2-yr laboratory study conducted by Dow Chemical Co. early in the life of polymer flooding showed that polymers improved the mobility ratio without damage to porosity or permeability of reservoir rock. A pilot test was made in the Niagara Field, Ky., and the results of this pilot compared to the performance of a waterflood that had been operating in this field for about 4 yr. The results showed that polymer flooding was superior to conventional waterflooding and had a distinct behavior. Another pilot flood conducted by Dow in the Albrecht Field, Starr County, Tex., showed similar results. Union Oil Co. of California also conducted pilot tests in 4 of their California reservoirs. Additional recoverable reserves resulting from polymer flooding for 2 of these reservoirs were estimated at 95,000 and 70,000 bbl. The other 2 tests were not as satisfactory, but this behavior is thought to be the result of not using enough polymer. Two other projects discussed are the NE. Hallsville Field unit in East Texas and the Squirrel sand reservoir in Woodson County, Kans., which were conducted by Hunt Oil Co. and Brazos Oil and Gas Co., respectively.

Correlation of chemical shifts predicted by molecular dynamics simulations for partially disordered proteins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karp, Jerome M.; Erylimaz, Ertan; Cowburn, David, E-mail: cowburn@cowburnlab.org, E-mail: David.cowburn@einstein.yu.edu [Albert Einstein College of Medicine of Yeshiva University, Department of Biochemistry (United States)

2015-01-15

There has been a longstanding interest in being able to accurately predict NMR chemical shifts from structural data. Recent studies have focused on using molecular dynamics (MD) simulation data as input for improved prediction. Here we examine the accuracy of chemical shift prediction for intein systems, which have regions of intrinsic disorder. We find that using MD simulation data as input for chemical shift prediction does not consistently improve prediction accuracy over use of a static X-ray crystal structure. This appears to result from the complex conformational ensemble of the disordered protein segments. We show that using accelerated molecular dynamics (aMD) simulations improves chemical shift prediction, suggesting that methods which better sample the conformational ensemble like aMD are more appropriate tools for use in chemical shift prediction for proteins with disordered regions. Moreover, our study suggests that data accurately reflecting protein dynamics must be used as input for chemical shift prediction in order to correctly predict chemical shifts in systems with disorder.

An approach to optimize economics in a west Texas CO2 flood

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pariani, G.J.; McColloch, K.A.; Warden, S.L.; Edens, D.R.

1992-01-01

Enhanced oil recovery projects, most notably CO 2 floods, are the next generation of recovery methods in the more mature West Texas waterfloods. The cost of installing and operating a CO 2 flood can be extremely high. In this paper, the authors will discuss the methods the authors used to make several active CO 2 floods more profitable by reducing operating costs and deferring investments. This paper reports that the author's goals in studying several active West Texas CO 2 floods were to determine the optimum near term cash flow, overall project economics (rate of return, present worth etc.) and oil recoveries. Using a reservoir simulator, various CO 2 flood designs were developed by altering specific operating parameters including the half-cycle slug size, gas-water ratio (GWR) injection schemes and total CO 2 slug sizes. The resulting injection and production rates were then entered into an economic simulator to determine the most economic set of operating conditions

Flood-inundation maps for the St. Marys River at Fort Wayne, Indiana

Science.gov (United States)

Menke, Chad D.; Kim, Moon H.; Fowler, Kathleen K.

2012-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 9-mile reach of the St. Marys River that extends from South Anthony Boulevard to Main Street at Fort Wayne, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the City of Fort Wayne. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage 04182000 St. Marys River near Fort Wayne, Ind. Current conditions at the USGS streamgages in Indiana may be obtained from the National Water Information System: Web Interface. In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system. The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated at USGS streamgages. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, water-surface profiles were simulated for the stream reach by means of a hydraulic one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relation at the USGS streamgage 04182000 St. Marys River near Fort Wayne, Ind. The hydraulic model was then used to simulate 11 water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-ft intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to approximately the highest recorded water level at the streamgage. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geographic information system digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. A flood inundation map was generated for each water-surface profile stage (11 maps in all) so that for any given flood stage users will be

Simulations of NMR pulse sequences during equilibrium and non-equilibrium chemical exchange

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helgstrand, Magnus; Haerd, Torleif; Allard, Peter

2000-01-01

The McConnell equations combine the differential equations for a simple two-state chemical exchange process with the Bloch differential equations for a classical description of the behavior of nuclear spins in a magnetic field. This equation system provides a useful starting point for the analysis of slow, intermediate and fast chemical exchange studied using a variety of NMR experiments. The McConnell equations are in the mathematical form of an inhomogeneous system of first-order differential equations. Here we rewrite the McConnell equations in a homogeneous form in order to facilitate fast and simple numerical calculation of the solution to the equation system. The McConnell equations can only treat equilibrium chemical exchange. We therefore also present a homogeneous equation system that can handle both equilibrium and non-equilibrium chemical processes correctly, as long as the kinetics is of first-order. Finally, the same method of rewriting the inhomogeneous form of the McConnell equations into a homogeneous form is applied to a quantum mechanical treatment of a spin system in chemical exchange. In order to illustrate the homogeneous McConnell equations, we have simulated pulse sequences useful for measuring exchange rates in slow, intermediate and fast chemical exchange processes. A stopped-flow NMR experiment was simulated using the equations for non-equilibrium chemical exchange. The quantum mechanical treatment was tested by the simulation of a sensitivity enhanced 15 N-HSQC with pulsed field gradients during slow chemical exchange and by the simulation of the transfer efficiency of a two-dimensional heteronuclear cross-polarization based experiment as a function of both chemical shift difference and exchange rate constants

SURFACE FLOODS IN COIMBRA: simple and dual-drainage studies

Science.gov (United States)

Leitão, J. P.; Simões, N. E.; Pina, R.; Marques, A. Sá; Maksimović, Č.; Gonçalves, Gil

2009-09-01

flow along the roads towards the Praça 8 de Maio, which is the lowest point in the whole catchment and where water tends to accumulate. As presented in Table 1, the return periods calculated for durations shorter than 30 minutes are not high. In fact, this rainfall event is characterised by an extreme heavy intensity regarding its total duration; thus it cannot be considered a short period event with a high intensity. As its total duration is approximately the time of concentration of the catchment, the flooding event was very significant. A 50 year return period was estimated for the event with 45 minutes duration. Table 1: Return period interpretation of the 9 June 2006 rainfall event Duration 5 (min) 10 (min) 15 (min) 30 (min) 45 (min) Maximum rainfall intensity (mm/h)122.4 76.8 72.4 61.6 47.6 Return period1(year) 10 8 20 > 50 50 Comparing the simulation results and the actual flood locations, it is concluded that the main cause of flooding is not the capacity of the sewer system. Despite the high slopes and the high level of imperviousness of the catchment, the flood seems to be mainly caused due to the limited capacity of the sewer inlets. It suggests that the correct analysis of the hydraulic behaviour of the catchment drainage system should contemplate the analysis of the overland flow system, either using a one- (1D) or two-dimensional (2D) approaches. Hence, simulation of the 9 June 2006 event were also carried out considering the 1D sewer model, an 1D/1D model and an 1D/2D model. The methodology developed at the Imperial College London to generate overland flow networks was used in the 1D/1D model. Infoworks CS was used to do the hydraulic simulations of the 1D/1D and 1D/2D models. The results of the simulations taking into account the overland flow system will be presented in this paper. Local community reports and photos are then used to validate the simulation results obtained. Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge Águas de Coimbra, E

Status of the Flooding Fragility Testing Development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pope, C. L. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Savage, B. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Bhandari, B. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Kamerman, D. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Muchmore, C. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Roberts, G. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Ryan, E. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Suresh, S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Tahhan, A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Wells, A. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, C. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-06-01

This report provides an update on research addressing nuclear power plant component reliability under flooding conditions. The research includes use of the Component Flooding Evaluation Laboratory (CFEL) where individual components and component subassemblies will be tested to failure under various flooding conditions. The resulting component reliability data can then be incorporated with risk simulation strategies to provide a more thorough representation of overall plant risk. The CFEL development strategy consists of four interleaved phases. Phase 1 addresses design and application of CFEL with water rise and water spray capabilities allowing testing of passive and active components including fully electrified components. Phase 2 addresses research into wave generation techniques followed by the design and addition of the wave generation capability to CFEL. Phase 3 addresses methodology development activities including small scale component testing, development of full scale component testing protocol, and simulation techniques including Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) based computer codes. Phase 4 involves full scale component testing including work on full scale component testing in a surrogate CFEL testing apparatus.

Status of the Flooding Fragility Testing Development

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pope, C. L.; Savage, B.; Bhandari, B.; Kamerman, D.; Muchmore, C.; Roberts, G.; Ryan, E.; Suresh, S.; Tahhan, A.; Wells, A.; Smith, C.

2016-01-01

This report provides an update on research addressing nuclear power plant component reliability under flooding conditions. The research includes use of the Component Flooding Evaluation Laboratory (CFEL) where individual components and component subassemblies will be tested to failure under various flooding conditions. The resulting component reliability data can then be incorporated with risk simulation strategies to provide a more thorough representation of overall plant risk. The CFEL development strategy consists of four interleaved phases. Phase 1 addresses design and application of CFEL with water rise and water spray capabilities allowing testing of passive and active components including fully electrified components. Phase 2 addresses research into wave generation techniques followed by the design and addition of the wave generation capability to CFEL. Phase 3 addresses methodology development activities including small scale component testing, development of full scale component testing protocol, and simulation techniques including Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) based computer codes. Phase 4 involves full scale component testing including work on full scale component testing in a surrogate CFEL testing apparatus.

Model abstraction addressing long-term simulations of chemical degradation of large-scale concrete structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacques, D.; Perko, J.; Seetharam, S.; Mallants, D.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a methodology to assess the spatial-temporal evolution of chemical degradation fronts in real-size concrete structures typical of a near-surface radioactive waste disposal facility. The methodology consists of the abstraction of a so-called full (complicated) model accounting for the multicomponent - multi-scale nature of concrete to an abstracted (simplified) model which simulates chemical concrete degradation based on a single component in the aqueous and solid phase. The abstracted model is verified against chemical degradation fronts simulated with the full model under both diffusive and advective transport conditions. Implementation in the multi-physics simulation tool COMSOL allows simulation of the spatial-temporal evolution of chemical degradation fronts in large-scale concrete structures. (authors)

High-Resolution Mesoscale Simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri Flash Flood: Impact of Model Initialization and Land Surface Treatment

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, R. David; Wang, Yansen; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Wetzel, Peter; Belcher, Larry R.

2004-01-01

High-resolution mesoscale model simulations of the 6-7 May 2000 Missouri flash flood event were performed to test the impact of model initialization and land surface treatment on timing, intensity, and location of extreme precipitation. In this flash flood event, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) produced over 340 mm of rain in roughly 9 hours in some locations. Two different types of model initialization were employed: 1) NCEP global reanalysis with 2.5-degree grid spacing and 12-hour temporal resolution, and 2) Eta reanalysis with 40- km grid spacing and $hour temporal resolution. In addition, two different land surface treatments were considered. A simple land scheme. (SLAB) keeps soil moisture fixed at initial values throughout the simulation, while a more sophisticated land model (PLACE) allows for r interactive feedback. Simulations with high-resolution Eta model initialization show considerable improvement in the intensity of precipitation due to the presence in the initialization of a residual mesoscale convective vortex (hlCV) from a previous MCS. Simulations with the PLACE land model show improved location of heavy precipitation. Since soil moisture can vary over time in the PLACE model, surface energy fluxes exhibit strong spatial gradients. These surface energy flux gradients help produce a strong low-level jet (LLJ) in the correct location. The LLJ then interacts with the cold outflow boundary of the MCS to produce new convective cells. The simulation with both high-resolution model initialization and time-varying soil moisture test reproduces the intensity and location of observed rainfall.

Interactive Mathematica Simulations in Chemical Engineering Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Falconer, John L.; Nicodemus, Garret D.

2014-01-01

Interactive Mathematica simulations with graphical displays of system behavior are an excellent addition to chemical engineering courses. The Manipulate command in Mathematica creates on-screen controls that allow users to change system variables and see the graphical output almost instantaneously. They can be used both in and outside class. More…

Performance of the Taber South polymer flood

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shaw, R A; Stright, Jr, D H

1975-01-01

A polymer flood was initiated in the Taber South Manville B Pool in Feb. 1967. The reservoir, which contains a viscous, highly undersaturated crude oil with no bottom water was depleted to the bubble-point pressure of 400 psig prior to polymer flooding. A 20% hydrocarbon pore volume slug of polyacrylamide (Pusher 700) was injected at the center of this long, narrow Lower Cretaceous sandstone reservoir. In early 1972, injection was converted to plain water by gradually reducing polymer concentration. The reservoir was studied with numerical reservoir simulation models in an attempt to evaluate the polymer flood performance. Additional laboratory work was initiated to evaluate polymer quality and to investigate wettability. The study results are presented.

Flood Hazard and Risk Analysis in Urban Area

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Chen-Jia; Hsu, Ming-hsi; Teng, Wei-Hsien; Lin, Tsung-Hsien

2017-04-01

Typhoons always induce heavy rainfall during summer and autumn seasons in Taiwan. Extreme weather in recent years often causes severe flooding which result in serious losses of life and property. With the rapid industrial and commercial development, people care about not only the quality of life, but also the safety of life and property. So the impact of life and property due to disaster is the most serious problem concerned by the residents. For the mitigation of the disaster impact, the flood hazard and risk analysis play an important role for the disaster prevention and mitigation. In this study, the vulnerability of Kaohsiung city was evaluated by statistics of social development factor. The hazard factors of Kaohsiung city was calculated by simulated flood depth of six different return periods and four typhoon events which result in serious flooding in Kaohsiung city. The flood risk can be obtained by means of the flood hazard and social vulnerability. The analysis results provide authority to strengthen disaster preparedness and to set up more resources in high risk areas.

The Importance of Precise Digital Elevation Models (DEM) in Modelling Floods

Science.gov (United States)

Demir, Gokben; Akyurek, Zuhal

2016-04-01

, larger flooded area is simulated from scaled DEM. The main difference is observed for the braided and meandering parts of the river. For the meandering part of the river, additional 1.82 106 m3 water (5% of the total volume) is calculated as the flooded volume simulated by using the scaled DEM. For the braided stream part 0.187 106 m3 more water is simulated as the flooded volume by the scaled DEM. The flood extent around the braided part of the river is 27.6 ha larger in the simulated flood map obtained from scaled DEM compared to the one obtained from base DEM. Around the meandering part of the river scaled DEM gave 59.8 ha more flooded area. The importance of correct topography of the braided and meandering part of the river in flood modelling and the uncertainty it brings to modelling are discussed in detail.

Sensitivity and uncertainty in flood inundation modelling – concept of an analysis framework

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. Weichel

2007-01-01

Full Text Available After the extreme flood event of the Elbe in 2002 the definition of flood risk areas by law and their simulation became more important in Germany. This paper describes a concept of an analysis framework to improve the localisation and duration of validity of flood inundation maps. The two-dimensional finite difference model TrimR2D is used and linked to a Monte-Carlo routine for parameter sampling as well as to selected performance measures. The purpose is the investigation of the impact of different spatial resolutions and the influence of changing land uses in the simulation of flood inundation areas. The technical assembling of the framework is realised and beside the model calibration, first tests with different parameter ranges were done. Preliminary results show good correlations with observed data, but the investigation of shifting land uses reflects only poor changes in the flood extension.

Flood hazard assessment in areas prone to flash flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Kvočka, Davor; Falconer, Roger A.; Bray, Michaela

2016-04-01

Contemporary climate projections suggest that there will be an increase in the occurrence of high-intensity rainfall events in the future. These precipitation extremes are usually the main cause for the emergence of extreme flooding, such as flash flooding. Flash floods are among the most unpredictable, violent and fatal natural hazards in the world. Furthermore, it is expected that flash flooding will occur even more frequently in the future due to more frequent development of extreme weather events, which will greatly increase the danger to people caused by flash flooding. This being the case, there will be a need for high resolution flood hazard maps in areas susceptible to flash flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by flash flooding. Two different types of flood hazard assessment methods were tested: (i) a widely used method based on an empirical analysis, and (ii) a new, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. Two flash flood events were considered herein, namely: the 2004 Boscastle flash flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas susceptible to extreme flooding, the flood hazard assessment should be conducted using methods based on a mechanics-based analysis. In comparison to standard flood hazard assessment methods, these physically based methods: (i) take into account all of the physical forces, which act on a human body in floodwater, (ii) successfully adapt to abrupt changes in the flow regime, which often occur for flash flood events, and (iii) rapidly assess a flood hazard index in a relatively short period of time.

Peak Discharge, Flood Profile, Flood Inundation, and Debris Movement Accompanying the Failure of the Upper Reservoir at the Taum Sauk Pump Storage Facility near Lesterville, Missouri

Science.gov (United States)

Rydlund, Jr., Paul H.

2006-01-01

. Dynamic wave unsteady flow models Dam Break (DAMBRK) and Unsteady NETwork (UNET) were used to route the flood wave from the embankment failure breach of the upper reservoir to the spillway of the lower reservoir. Simulated velocities ranged from 20 to 51 feet per second along Proffit Mountain and 12 to 32 feet per second along the East Fork Black River. Simulated arrival time of the flood wave took approximately 5.5 to 6.0 minutes to enter into the floodplain of the East Fork Black River, and roughly 29 minutes to begin filling the lower reservoir. Simulated shear stress values reached as high as 232 pounds per square foot along the slope of Proffit Mountain and 144 pounds per square foot within the Shut-Ins. Flood depths from the embankment failure may have reached greater than 50 feet along Proffit Mountain and as much as 30 to 40 feet along the East Fork Black River. A steady-state model was used to develop 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, and 500-year flood frequency profiles along the East Fork Black River. A similar flood event, hypothetically resulting from a breach of the east embankment above Taum Sauk Creek, was simulated along with the 100- and 500-year flood profiles on Taum Sauk Creek. Estimated extents of flood inundation were developed for each profile. Debris movement was extensive as a result of the flood wave moving down Proffit Mountain and through Johnson's Shut-Ins State Park. A quantitative assessment of debris movement was conducted to benefit rehabilitation efforts within the park. Approximately 180 acres of timber were affected as a result of the embankment failure flood.

TWO-DIMENSIONAL MODELLING OF ACCIDENTAL FLOOD WAVES PROPAGATION

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Lorand Catalin STOENESCU

2011-05-01

Full Text Available The study presented in this article describes a modern modeling methodology of the propagation of accidental flood waves in case a dam break; this methodology is applied in Romania for the first time for the pilot project „Breaking scenarios of Poiana Uzului dam”. The calculation programs used help us obtain a bidimensional calculation (2D of the propagation of flood waves, taking into consideration the diminishing of the flood wave on a normal direction to the main direction; this diminishing of the flood wave is important in the case of sinuous courses of water or with urban settlements very close to the minor river bed. In the case of Poiana Uzului dam, 2 scenarios were simulated with the help of Ph.D. Eng. Dan Stematiu, plausible scenarios but with very little chances of actually producing. The results were presented as animations with flooded surfaces at certain time steps successively.

A constrained approach to multiscale stochastic simulation of chemically reacting systems

KAUST Repository

Cotter, Simon L.; Zygalakis, Konstantinos C.; Kevrekidis, Ioannis G.; Erban, Radek

2011-01-01

Stochastic simulation of coupled chemical reactions is often computationally intensive, especially if a chemical system contains reactions occurring on different time scales. In this paper, we introduce a multiscale methodology suitable to address

Modeling the transport of chemical warfare agents and simulants in polymeric substrates for reactive decontamination

Science.gov (United States)

Pearl, Thomas; Mantooth, Brent; Varady, Mark; Willis, Matthew

2014-03-01

Chemical warfare agent simulants are often used for environmental testing in place of highly toxic agents. This work sets the foundation for modeling decontamination of absorbing polymeric materials with the focus on determining relationships between agents and simulants. The correlations of agents to simulants must consider the three way interactions in the chemical-material-decontaminant system where transport and reaction occur in polymer materials. To this end, diffusion modeling of the subsurface transport of simulants and live chemical warfare agents was conducted for various polymer systems (e.g., paint coatings) with and without reaction pathways with applied decontamination. The models utilized 1D and 2D finite difference diffusion and reaction models to simulate absorption and reaction in the polymers, and subsequent flux of the chemicals out of the polymers. Experimental data including vapor flux measurements and dynamic contact angle measurements were used to determine model input parameters. Through modeling, an understanding of the relationship of simulant to live chemical warfare agent was established, focusing on vapor emission of agents and simulants from materials.

Equilibrium simulations of proteins using molecular fragment replacement and NMR chemical shifts.

Science.gov (United States)

Boomsma, Wouter; Tian, Pengfei; Frellsen, Jes; Ferkinghoff-Borg, Jesper; Hamelryck, Thomas; Lindorff-Larsen, Kresten; Vendruscolo, Michele

2014-09-23

Methods of protein structure determination based on NMR chemical shifts are becoming increasingly common. The most widely used approaches adopt the molecular fragment replacement strategy, in which structural fragments are repeatedly reassembled into different complete conformations in molecular simulations. Although these approaches are effective in generating individual structures consistent with the chemical shift data, they do not enable the sampling of the conformational space of proteins with correct statistical weights. Here, we present a method of molecular fragment replacement that makes it possible to perform equilibrium simulations of proteins, and hence to determine their free energy landscapes. This strategy is based on the encoding of the chemical shift information in a probabilistic model in Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. First, we demonstrate that with this approach it is possible to fold proteins to their native states starting from extended structures. Second, we show that the method satisfies the detailed balance condition and hence it can be used to carry out an equilibrium sampling from the Boltzmann distribution corresponding to the force field used in the simulations. Third, by comparing the results of simulations carried out with and without chemical shift restraints we describe quantitatively the effects that these restraints have on the free energy landscapes of proteins. Taken together, these results demonstrate that the molecular fragment replacement strategy can be used in combination with chemical shift information to characterize not only the native structures of proteins but also their conformational fluctuations.

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to

Geochemical discrimination of five pleistocene Lava-Dam outburst-flood deposits, western Grand Canyon, Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Fenton, C.R.; Poreda, R.J.; Nash, B.P.; Webb, R.H.; Cerling, T.E.

2004-01-01

Pleistocene basaltic lava dams and outburst-flood deposits in the western Grand Canyon, Arizona, have been correlated by means of cosmogenic 3He (3Hec) ages and concentrations of SiO2, Na2O, K2O, and rare earth elements. These data indicate that basalt clasts and vitroclasts in a given outburst-flood deposit came from a common source, a lava dam. With these data, it is possible to distinguish individual dam-flood events and improve our understanding of the interrelations of volcanism and river processes. At least five lava dams on the Colorado River failed catastrophically between 100 and 525 ka; subsequent outburst floods emplaced basalt-rich deposits preserved on benches as high as 200 m above the current river and up to 53 km downstream of dam sites. Chemical data also distinguishes individual lava flows that were collectively mapped in the past as large long-lasting dam complexes. These chemical data, in combination with age constraints, increase our ability to correlate lava dams and outburst-flood deposits and increase our understanding of the longevity of lava dams. Bases of correlated lava dams and flood deposits approximate the elevation of the ancestral river during each flood event. Water surface profiles are reconstructed and can be used in future hydraulic models to estimate the magnitude of these large-scale floods.

Surfactant loss control in chemical flooding spectroscopic and calorimetric study of adsorption and precipitation on reservoir minerals. Annual report, September 30, 1993--September 30, 1994

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Somasundaran, P.

1995-06-01

The aim of this project is to elucidate the mechanisms underlying adsorption and surface precipitation of flooding surfactants on reservoir minerals. Effect of surfactant structure, surfactant combinations, other inorganic and polymeric species is being studied. A multi-pronged approach consisting of micro and nano spectroscopy, microcalorimetry, electrokinetics, surface tension and wettability is used to achieve the goals. The results of this study should help in controlling surfactant loss in chemical flooding and also in developing optimum structures and conditions for efficient chemical flooding processes. During the second year of this three year contract, adsorption/desorption of single surfactants and select surfactant mixtures on alumina and silica was studied. Surfactants studied include the anionic sodium dodecyl sulfate (SDS), cationic tetradecyl trimethyl ammonium chloride (TTAC), nonionic pentadecylethoxylated nonyl phenol (NP-15) and the nonionic octaethylene glycol n-dodecyl ether (C{sub 12}EO{sub 8}) of varying hydrocarbon chain length. The microstructure of the adsorbed layer in terms of micropolarity and aggregation numbers was probed using fluorescence spectroscopy. Changes of microstructure upon dilution (desorption) were also studied. Presence of the nonionic surfactant in the mixed aggregate led to shielding of the charge of the ionic surfactant which in-turn promoted aggregation but reduced electrostatic attraction between the charged surfactant and the mineral surface. Strong consequences of surfactant interactions in solution upon adsorption as well as correlations between monomer concentrations in mixtures and adsorption were revealed.

An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Dottori, Francesco; Kalas, Milan; Salamon, Peter; Bianchi, Alessandra; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Feyen, Luc

2017-07-01

The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

Climate change and flood hazard: Evaluation of the SCHADEX methodology in a non-stationary context

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brigode, Pierre

2013-01-01

Since 2006, Electricite de France (EDF) applies a new hydro-climatological approach of extreme rainfall and flood predetermination - the SCHADEX method - for the design of dam spillways. In a context of potential increase of extreme event intensity and frequency due to climate change, the use of the SCHADEX method in non-stationary conditions is a main interest topic for EDF hydrologists. Thus, the scientific goal of this Ph.D. thesis work has been to evaluate the ability of the SCHADEX method to take into account future climate simulations for the estimation of future extreme floods. The recognized inabilities of climate models and down-scaling methods to simulate (extreme) rainfall distribution at the catchment-scale have been avoided, by developing and testing new methodological approaches. Moreover, the decomposition of the flood-producing factors proposed by the SCHADEX method has been used for considering different simulated climatic evolutions and for quantifying the relative impact of these factors on the extreme flood estimation. First, the SCHADEX method has been applied in present time over different climatic contexts (France, Austria, Canada and Norway), thanks to several colorations with academic and industrial partners. A sensitivity analysis allowed to quantify the extreme flood estimation sensitivity to rainfall hazard, catchment saturation hazard and rainfall-runoff transformation, independently. The results showed a large sensitivity of SCHADEX flood estimations to the rainfall hazard and to the rainfall-runoff transformation. Using the sensitivity analysis results, tests have been done in order to estimate the future evolution of 'key' variables previously identified. New climate model outputs (done within the CMIP5 project) have been analyzed and used for determining future frequency of rainfall events and future catchment saturation conditions. Considering these simulated evolutions within the SCHADEX method lead to a significant decrease of

Development of tight-binding, chemical-reaction-dynamics simulator for combinatorial computational chemistry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kubo, Momoji; Ando, Minako; Sakahara, Satoshi; Jung, Changho; Seki, Kotaro; Kusagaya, Tomonori; Endou, Akira; Takami, Seiichi; Imamura, Akira; Miyamoto, Akira

2004-01-01

Recently, we have proposed a new concept called 'combinatorial computational chemistry' to realize a theoretical, high-throughput screening of catalysts and materials. We have already applied our combinatorial, computational-chemistry approach, mainly based on static first-principles calculations, to various catalysts and materials systems and its applicability to the catalysts and materials design was strongly confirmed. In order to realize more effective and efficient combinatorial, computational-chemistry screening, a high-speed, chemical-reaction-dynamics simulator based on quantum-chemical, molecular-dynamics method is essential. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no chemical-reaction-dynamics simulator, which has an enough high-speed ability to perform a high-throughput screening. In the present study, we have succeeded in the development of a chemical-reaction-dynamics simulator based on our original, tight-binding, quantum-chemical, molecular-dynamics method, which is more than 5000 times faster than the regular first-principles, molecular-dynamics method. Moreover, its applicability and effectiveness to the atomistic clarification of the methanol-synthesis dynamics at reaction temperature were demonstrated

Emergency Evacuation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents Based on Diffusion Simulation

OpenAIRE

Jiang-Hua Zhang; Hai-Yue Liu; Rui Zhu; Yang Liu

2017-01-01

The recent rapid development of information technology, such as sensing technology, communications technology, and database, allows us to use simulation experiments for analyzing serious accidents caused by hazardous chemicals. Due to the toxicity and diffusion of hazardous chemicals, these accidents often lead to not only severe consequences and economic losses, but also traffic jams at the same time. Emergency evacuation after hazardous chemical accidents is an effective means to reduce the...

Development of flood index by characterisation of flood hydrographs

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharya, Biswa; Suman, Asadusjjaman

2015-04-01

In recent years the world has experienced deaths, large-scale displacement of people, billions of Euros of economic damage, mental stress and ecosystem impacts due to flooding. Global changes (climate change, population and economic growth, and urbanisation) are exacerbating the severity of flooding. The 2010 floods in Pakistan and the 2011 floods in Australia and Thailand demonstrate the need for concerted action in the face of global societal and environmental changes to strengthen resilience against flooding. Due to climatological characteristics there are catchments where flood forecasting may have a relatively limited role and flood event management may have to be trusted upon. For example, in flash flood catchments, which often may be tiny and un-gauged, flood event management often depends on approximate prediction tools such as flash flood guidance (FFG). There are catchments fed largely by flood waters coming from upstream catchments, which are un-gauged or due to data sharing issues in transboundary catchments the flow of information from upstream catchment is limited. Hydrological and hydraulic modelling of these downstream catchments will never be sufficient to provide any required forecasting lead time and alternative tools to support flood event management will be required. In FFG, or similar approaches, the primary motif is to provide guidance by synthesising the historical data. We follow a similar approach to characterise past flood hydrographs to determine a flood index (FI), which varies in space and time with flood magnitude and its propagation. By studying the variation of the index the pockets of high flood risk, requiring attention, can be earmarked beforehand. This approach can be very useful in flood risk management of catchments where information about hydro-meteorological variables is inadequate for any forecasting system. This paper presents the development of FI and its application to several catchments including in Kentucky in the USA

TMVOC, simulator for multiple volatile organic chemicals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pruess, Karsten; Battistelli, Alfredo

2003-01-01

TMVOC is a numerical simulator for three-phase non-isothermal flow of water, soil gas, and a multicomponent mixture of volatile organic chemicals (VOCs) in multidimensional heterogeneous porous media. It is an extension of the TOUGH2 general-purpose simulation program developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. TMVOC is designed for applications to contamination problems that involve hydrocarbon fuel or organic solvent spills in saturated and unsaturated zones. It can model contaminant behavior under ''natural'' environmental conditions, as well as for engineered systems, such as soil vapor extraction, groundwater pumping, or steam-assisted source remediation. TMVOC is upwards compatible with T2VOC (Falta et al., 1995) and can be initialized from T2VOC-style initial conditions. The main enhancements in TMVOC relative to T2VOC are as follows: a multicomponent mixture of volatile organic chemicals can be modeled; any and all combinations of the three phases water-oil-gas are treated; several non-condensible gases may be present; diffusion is treated in all phases in a manner that is fully coupled with phase partitioning. This paper gives a brief summary of the methodology used in TMVOC as well as highlighting some implementation issues. Simulation of a NAPL spill and subsequent remediation is discussed for a 2-D vertical section of a saturated-unsaturated flow problem

Enhanced Effects of Flood Disasters Due to Hillside Development in Urban Areas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Hsien Teng

2013-02-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the Taiwan government has established a number of flood control facilities such as dikes, pumping stations and drainage systems to effectively reduce downstream flooding. However, with continued development and urbanization of catchment areas, the original designs of most flood control facilities have become outdated. Hillside lands in the upper and middle reaches of river basins have undergone urban development through unsound engineering practices, paving the way for heavy downstream flooding. Therefore, proper river basin management should include both upstream and downstream sides. The main purpose of the paper is to simulate non-urban inundation areas with various degrees of development (0%, 10%, 20%, 40% and 60%, over two different return periods of 25 years and 200 years, for intensive rainfall events in the Shi-Chi District, Taiwan. Through hydrological analysis and numerical simulations of inundation, quantitative data on inundation potential have been established based on the land development conditions along the hillsides on the upper and middle reaches of the Keelung River Basin. The simulated results show that the increase in the extent of land development in the upper reaches causes an increase in the area and depth of inundation, resulting in an increased risk of flooding in downstream areas. If the land-use policy makers in the upper reaches of the river basin’s hillsides do not properly manage the land development, the risk of flooding in downstream areas will increase. In such an event, the policy makers should first review the situation to understand the problem with the consideration of this study. Thus, proper development and flood mitigation in hillsides can be established.

PAI-OFF: A new proposal for online flood forecasting in flash flood prone catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitz, G. H.; Cullmann, J.

2008-10-01

SummaryThe Process Modelling and Artificial Intelligence for Online Flood Forecasting (PAI-OFF) methodology combines the reliability of physically based, hydrologic/hydraulic modelling with the operational advantages of artificial intelligence. These operational advantages are extremely low computation times and straightforward operation. The basic principle of the methodology is to portray process models by means of ANN. We propose to train ANN flood forecasting models with synthetic data that reflects the possible range of storm events. To this end, establishing PAI-OFF requires first setting up a physically based hydrologic model of the considered catchment and - optionally, if backwater effects have a significant impact on the flow regime - a hydrodynamic flood routing model of the river reach in question. Both models are subsequently used for simulating all meaningful and flood relevant storm scenarios which are obtained from a catchment specific meteorological data analysis. This provides a database of corresponding input/output vectors which is then completed by generally available hydrological and meteorological data for characterizing the catchment state prior to each storm event. This database subsequently serves for training both a polynomial neural network (PoNN) - portraying the rainfall-runoff process - and a multilayer neural network (MLFN), which mirrors the hydrodynamic flood wave propagation in the river. These two ANN models replace the hydrological and hydrodynamic model in the operational mode. After presenting the theory, we apply PAI-OFF - essentially consisting of the coupled "hydrologic" PoNN and "hydrodynamic" MLFN - to the Freiberger Mulde catchment in the Erzgebirge (Ore-mountains) in East Germany (3000 km 2). Both the demonstrated computational efficiency and the prediction reliability underline the potential of the new PAI-OFF methodology for online flood forecasting.

Coupling Modelling of Urban Development and Flood Risk – An Attempt for a Combined Software Framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Löwe, Roland; Sto Domingo, Nina; Urich, Christian

2015-01-01

to use the results of the hydraulic simulation to condition DANCE4WATER and to account for flood risk in the simulated urban development. In an Australian case study, we demonstrate that future flood risk can be significantly reduced while maintaining the overall speed of urban development.......We have developed a setup that couples the urban development model DANCE4WATER with the 1D-2D hydraulic model MIKE FLOOD. The setup makes it possible to assess the impact of urban development and infrastructural change scenarios on flood risk in an automated manner. In addition, it permits us...

Historical floods in flood frequency analysis: Is this game worth the candle?

Science.gov (United States)

Strupczewski, Witold G.; Kochanek, Krzysztof; Bogdanowicz, Ewa

2017-11-01

In flood frequency analysis (FFA) the profit from inclusion of historical information on the largest historical pre-instrumental floods depends primarily on reliability of the information, i.e. the accuracy of magnitude and return period of floods. This study is focused on possible theoretical maximum gain in accuracy of estimates of upper quantiles, that can be obtained by incorporating the largest historical floods of known return periods into the FFA. We assumed a simple case: N years of systematic records of annual maximum flows and either one largest (XM1) or two largest (XM1 and XM2) flood peak flows in a historical M-year long period. The problem is explored by Monte Carlo simulations with the maximum likelihood (ML) method. Both correct and false distributional assumptions are considered. In the first case the two-parameter extreme value models (Gumbel, log-Gumbel, Weibull) with various coefficients of variation serve as parent distributions. In the case of unknown parent distribution, the Weibull distribution was assumed as estimating model and the truncated Gumbel as parent distribution. The return periods of XM1 and XM2 are determined from the parent distribution. The results are then compared with the case, when return periods of XM1 and XM2 are defined by their plotting positions. The results are presented in terms of bias, root mean square error and the probability of overestimation of the quantile with 100-year return period. The results of the research indicate that the maximal profit of inclusion of pre-instrumental foods in the FFA may prove smaller than the cost of reconstruction of historical hydrological information.

Impact of climate change on New York City's coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE.

Science.gov (United States)

Garner, Andra J; Mann, Michael E; Emanuel, Kerry A; Kopp, Robert E; Lin, Ning; Alley, Richard B; Horton, Benjamin P; DeConto, Robert M; Donnelly, Jeffrey P; Pollard, David

2017-11-07

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970-2005 to 4.0-5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080-2100 and ranges from 5.0-15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280-2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970-2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030-2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280-2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica's potential partial collapse. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Hurricane Harvey Riverine Flooding: Part 2: Integration of Heterogeneous Earth Observation Data for Comparative Analysis with High-Resolution Inundation Boundaries Reconstructed from Flood2D-GPU Model

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, C.; Sava, E.; Cervone, G.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey has been noted as the wettest cyclone on record for the US as well as the most destructive (so far) for the 2017 hurricane season. An entire year worth of rainfall occurred over the course of a few days. The city of Houston was greatly impacted as the storm lingered over the city for five days, causing a record-breaking 50+ inches of rain as well as severe damage from flooding. Flood model simulations were performed to reconstruct the event in order to better understand, assess, and predict flooding dynamics for the future. Additionally, number of remote sensing platforms, and on ground instruments that provide near real-time data have also been used for flood identification, monitoring, and damage assessment. Although both flood models and remote sensing techniques are able to identify inundated areas, rapid and accurate flood prediction at a high spatio-temporal resolution remains a challenge. Thus a methodological approach which fuses the two techniques can help to better validate what is being modeled and observed. Recent advancements in data fusion techniques of remote sensing with near real time heterogeneous datasets have allowed emergency responders to more efficiently extract increasingly precise and relevant knowledge from the available information. In this work the use of multiple sources of contributed data, coupled with remotely sensed and open source geospatial datasets is demonstrated to generate an understanding of potential damage assessment for the floods after Hurricane Harvey in Harris County, Texas. The feasibility of integrating multiple sources at different temporal and spatial resolutions into hydrodynamic models for flood inundation simulations is assessed. Furthermore the contributed datasets are compared against a reconstructed flood extent generated from the Flood2D-GPU model.

Challenges of Modeling Flood Risk at Large Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Guin, J.; Simic, M.; Rowe, J.

2009-04-01

Flood risk management is a major concern for many nations and for the insurance sector in places where this peril is insured. A prerequisite for risk management, whether in the public sector or in the private sector is an accurate estimation of the risk. Mitigation measures and traditional flood management techniques are most successful when the problem is viewed at a large regional scale such that all inter-dependencies in a river network are well understood. From an insurance perspective the jury is still out there on whether flood is an insurable peril. However, with advances in modeling techniques and computer power it is possible to develop models that allow proper risk quantification at the scale suitable for a viable insurance market for flood peril. In order to serve the insurance market a model has to be event-simulation based and has to provide financial risk estimation that forms the basis for risk pricing, risk transfer and risk management at all levels of insurance industry at large. In short, for a collection of properties, henceforth referred to as a portfolio, the critical output of the model is an annual probability distribution of economic losses from a single flood occurrence (flood event) or from an aggregation of all events in any given year. In this paper, the challenges of developing such a model are discussed in the context of Great Britain for which a model has been developed. The model comprises of several, physically motivated components so that the primary attributes of the phenomenon are accounted for. The first component, the rainfall generator simulates a continuous series of rainfall events in space and time over thousands of years, which are physically realistic while maintaining the statistical properties of rainfall at all locations over the model domain. A physically based runoff generation module feeds all the rivers in Great Britain, whose total length of stream links amounts to about 60,000 km. A dynamical flow routing

Flood Hazard Mapping by Applying Fuzzy TOPSIS Method

Science.gov (United States)

Han, K. Y.; Lee, J. Y.; Keum, H.; Kim, B. J.; Kim, T. H.

2017-12-01

There are lots of technical methods to integrate various factors for flood hazard mapping. The purpose of this study is to suggest the methodology of integrated flood hazard mapping using MCDM(Multi Criteria Decision Making). MCDM problems involve a set of alternatives that are evaluated on the basis of conflicting and incommensurate criteria. In this study, to apply MCDM to assessing flood risk, maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time are considered as criterion, and each applied elements are considered as alternatives. The scheme to find the efficient alternative closest to a ideal value is appropriate way to assess flood risk of a lot of element units(alternatives) based on various flood indices. Therefore, TOPSIS which is most commonly used MCDM scheme is adopted to create flood hazard map. The indices for flood hazard mapping(maximum flood depth, maximum velocity, and maximum travel time) have uncertainty concerning simulation results due to various values according to flood scenario and topographical condition. These kind of ambiguity of indices can cause uncertainty of flood hazard map. To consider ambiguity and uncertainty of criterion, fuzzy logic is introduced which is able to handle ambiguous expression. In this paper, we made Flood Hazard Map according to levee breach overflow using the Fuzzy TOPSIS Technique. We confirmed the areas where the highest grade of hazard was recorded through the drawn-up integrated flood hazard map, and then produced flood hazard map can be compared them with those indicated in the existing flood risk maps. Also, we expect that if we can apply the flood hazard map methodology suggested in this paper even to manufacturing the current flood risk maps, we will be able to make a new flood hazard map to even consider the priorities for hazard areas, including more varied and important information than ever before. Keywords : Flood hazard map; levee break analysis; 2D analysis; MCDM; Fuzzy TOPSIS

Flood hazards in an urbanizing watershed in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hatim O. Sharif

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Riyadh, the capital of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, has experienced unusual levels of urbanization in the past few decades, making it one of the fastest growing cities in the world. This paper examines flood hazards in the rapidly urbanizing catchment of Al-Aysen in Riyadh. Remote sensing and geographic information system techniques were employed to obtain and prepare input data for hydrologic and hydraulic models, with the former based on the very popular curve number approach. Due to the limited nature of the rainfall data, observations from two rain gauges in the vicinity of the catchment were used to estimate design storms. The hydrologic model was run in a semi-distributed mode by dividing the catchment into many sub-catchments. The impact of urbanization on run-off volume and peak discharge resulting from different storms was investigated, with various urbanization scenarios simulated. Flood hazard zones and affected streets were also identified through hydrologic/hydraulic model simulation. The mismatch between administrative and catchment boundaries can create problems in flood risk management for similar cities since hydrologic processes and flood hazards are based on the hydrologic connectivity. Since flooding events impact the road network and create driving hazards, governmental decision-makers must take the necessary precautions to protect drivers in these situations.

Temporal clustering of floods in Germany: Do flood-rich and flood-poor periods exist?

Science.gov (United States)

Merz, Bruno; Nguyen, Viet Dung; Vorogushyn, Sergiy

2016-10-01

The repeated occurrence of exceptional floods within a few years, such as the Rhine floods in 1993 and 1995 and the Elbe and Danube floods in 2002 and 2013, suggests that floods in Central Europe may be organized in flood-rich and flood-poor periods. This hypothesis is studied by testing the significance of temporal clustering in flood occurrence (peak-over-threshold) time series for 68 catchments across Germany for the period 1932-2005. To assess the robustness of the results, different methods are used: Firstly, the index of dispersion, which quantifies the departure from a homogeneous Poisson process, is investigated. Further, the time-variation of the flood occurrence rate is derived by non-parametric kernel implementation and the significance of clustering is evaluated via parametric and non-parametric tests. Although the methods give consistent overall results, the specific results differ considerably. Hence, we recommend applying different methods when investigating flood clustering. For flood estimation and risk management, it is of relevance to understand whether clustering changes with flood severity and time scale. To this end, clustering is assessed for different thresholds and time scales. It is found that the majority of catchments show temporal clustering at the 5% significance level for low thresholds and time scales of one to a few years. However, clustering decreases substantially with increasing threshold and time scale. We hypothesize that flood clustering in Germany is mainly caused by catchment memory effects along with intra- to inter-annual climate variability, and that decadal climate variability plays a minor role.

Dam break modelling, risk assessment and uncertainty analysis for flood mitigation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zagonjolli, M.

2007-01-01

In this thesis a range of modelling techniques is explored to deal effectively with flood risk management. In particular, attention is paid to floods caused by failure of hydraulic structures such as dams and dikes. The methods considered here are applied for simulating dam and dike failure events,

Flood impacts on a water distribution network

Science.gov (United States)

Arrighi, Chiara; Tarani, Fabio; Vicario, Enrico; Castelli, Fabio

2017-12-01

Floods cause damage to people, buildings and infrastructures. Water distribution systems are particularly exposed, since water treatment plants are often located next to the rivers. Failure of the system leads to both direct losses, for instance damage to equipment and pipework contamination, and indirect impact, since it may lead to service disruption and thus affect populations far from the event through the functional dependencies of the network. In this work, we present an analysis of direct and indirect damages on a drinking water supply system, considering the hazard of riverine flooding as well as the exposure and vulnerability of active system components. The method is based on interweaving, through a semi-automated GIS procedure, a flood model and an EPANET-based pipe network model with a pressure-driven demand approach, which is needed when modelling water distribution networks in highly off-design conditions. Impact measures are defined and estimated so as to quantify service outage and potential pipe contamination. The method is applied to the water supply system of the city of Florence, Italy, serving approximately 380 000 inhabitants. The evaluation of flood impact on the water distribution network is carried out for different events with assigned recurrence intervals. Vulnerable elements exposed to the flood are identified and analysed in order to estimate their residual functionality and to simulate failure scenarios. Results show that in the worst failure scenario (no residual functionality of the lifting station and a 500-year flood), 420 km of pipework would require disinfection with an estimated cost of EUR 21 million, which is about 0.5 % of the direct flood losses evaluated for buildings and contents. Moreover, if flood impacts on the water distribution network are considered, the population affected by the flood is up to 3 times the population directly flooded.

Effect of flood-induced chemical load on filtrate quality at bank filtration sites

Science.gov (United States)

Ray, C.; Soong, T.W.; Lian, Y.Q.; Roadcap, G.S.

2002-01-01

Riparian municipal wells, that are located on riverbanks, are specifically designed to capture a portion of the river water through induced infiltration. Runoff from agricultural watersheds is found to carry enormous amounts of pesticides and nitrate. While the risk of contamination for a vast majority of sites with small-capacity vertical wells is low, potential exists for medium to large capacity collector wells to capture a fraction of the surface water contaminants during flood. Prior monitoring and current modeling results indicate that a small-capacity (peak pumpage 0.0315 m3/s) vertical bank filtration well may not be affected by river water nitrate and atrazine even during flood periods. For a medium capacity (0.0875-0.175 m3/s) hypothetical collector well at the same site, potential exists for a portion of the river water nitrate and atrazine to enter the well during flood periods. Various combinations of hydraulic conductivity of the riverbed or bank material were used. For nitrate, it was assumed either no denitrification occurred during the period of simulation or a half-life of 2 years. Equilibrium controlled sorption (organic carbon partition coefficient of 52 ml/g) and a half-life of between 7.5 and 15 weeks were considered for atrazine. Combinations of these parameters were used in various simulations. Peak concentrations of atrazine or nitrate in pumped water could vary from less than 1% to as high as 90% of that in the river. It was found that a combination of river stage, pumping rates, hydraulic properties of the riverbed and bank, and soil/pesticide properties could affect contaminant entry from river water to any of these wells. If the hydraulic conductivity of the bed and bank material were low, atrazine would not reach the pumping well with or without sorption and degradation. However, for moderately low permeable bank and bed materials, some atrazine from river water could enter a hypothetical collector well while pumping at 0.0875 m3/s. It

A method for projecting full-scale performance of CO/sub 2/ flooding in the Willard Unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bilhartz, H.L.; Charlson, G.S.; Stalkup, F.I.; Miller, C.C.

1985-01-01

A non-producing CO/sub 2/ flood tertiary recovery test was recently completed in the Willard Unit of Wasson Field. Flood responses during waterflood and alternate injection of CO/sub 2/ and water were monitored at a logging observation well using compensated neutron and pulsed neutron logs. A pressure core was taken to measure residual oil saturations at the test conclusion. The overall objective of the testing was to obtain information for evaluating the potential for full-scale CO/sub 2/ flooding in the unit. Out method for making this evaluation involves: (1) defining CO/sub 2/ flood displacement efficiency and representing this efficiency in a miscible flood reservoir simulator; (2) defining a representative average reservoir description; and (3) projecting full-scale CO/sub 2/ flood performance with the simulator. The paper provides a status report on progress to assess CO/sub 2/ flooding potential for the Willard Unit in this manner

A study case of Baranca drainage basin flash-floods using the hydrological model of Hec-Ras

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Aritina HALIUC

2012-09-01

Full Text Available In the last decades, the floods which occurred within Romanian territory stand as proof for the increased frequency of the extreme hydrological hazards which have negative effects on the normal pathway of the human-beings activities. The technological progress among with the increased frequency of floods events are the base for the development of informational programs for the analysis, simulation and flood management. The Baranca brook which drains a considerable part of Zamostea village (Romania was used as a pilot drainage basin for the flash-flood simulation using the Hec-Ras program and the Arcgis extension, HecGeo-Ras. The flash-floods that occurred in the summer of 2010 were used to validate the results of the simulation. Between 28.06.2010 – 29.06.2010, two flash-floods occurred in the Baranca drainage basin with a discharge oscillated between 10m3 and 70m3, a water extent which covered an area of 5.14 km2 and a depth ranging between 0.3-3m. The programs are capable to simulate the water flow and to investigate the floodway encroachments in the study area. The damages evaluated in the field along with the program’s results reveal the fact that more than half of the built-up areas of Zamostea village are established along brooks, within the floodplain area. What is more, after the 2010 floods, the expension of the habitable area was not detained by the water danger, many houses are still built on the floodplain. The programs used, taking an acceptable margin of error, may be integrated into any flood management strategy or in any watershed plan and may provide the necessary support for mitigating the risks associated with floods

Of floods, sandbags and simulations: Urban resilience to natural disasters and the performance of disaster management organisations under change.

Science.gov (United States)

Dressler, Gunnar; Mueller, Birgit; Frank, Karin; Kuhlicke, Christian

2015-04-01

Natural disasters and in particular floods have become a strong threat to urban communities in the last decades. In just eleven years (2002, 2013) two centenary river floods have hit Eastern Germany, causing damages of 9.1 billion € (2002) and 6.7 billion € (2013, first estimate), making them the most costly flood events in German history. Many cities in the Free State of Saxony that were strongly hit by both floods are additionally challenged by demographic change with an ageing society and outmigration leading to population shrinkage. This also constrains the coping capacity of disaster management services, especially those of volunteer-based disaster management organisations such as fire brigades, leading to an increased vulnerability of the community at risk. On the other hand, new technologies such as social media have led to rapid information spread and self-organisation of tremendous numbers of civil volunteers willing to help. How do responsible organisations deal with the challenges associated with demographic change, as well as with expected increases in flood frequency and intensity, and what strategies could enhance their performance in the future? To explore these questions, we developed an agent-based simulation model. It is based on socio-demographic settings of the community, communication and coordination structures of disaster management as well as transportation infrastructure for resources and emergency forces. The model is developed in exchange with relevant stakeholders including experts of local disaster management organisations and authority representatives. The goal of the model is to a) assess the performance of disaster management organisations and determine performance limits with respect to forecast lead times and respective coping times of disaster management organisations and b) use it as a discussion tool with these organisations and authorities to identify weak points as well as new options and strategies to ensure protection

Flood Simulations and Uncertainty Analysis for the Pearl River Basin Using the Coupled Land Surface and Hydrological Model System

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Yongnan Zhu

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The performances of hydrological simulations for the Pearl River Basin in China were analysed using the Coupled Land Surface and Hydrological Model System (CLHMS. Three datasets, including East Asia (EA, high-resolution gauge satellite-merged China Merged Precipitation Analysis (CMPA-Daily, and the Asian Precipitation Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE daily precipitation were used to drive the CLHMS model to simulate daily hydrological processes from 1998 to 2006. The results indicate that the precipitation data was the most important source of uncertainty in the hydrological simulation. The simulated streamflow driven by the CMPA-Daily agreed well with observations, with a Pearson correlation coefficient (PMC greater than 0.70 and an index of agreement (IOA similarity coefficient greater than 0.82 at Liuzhou, Shijiao, and Wuzhou Stations. Comparison of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE shows that the peak flow simulation ability of CLHMS driven with the CMPA-Daily rainfall is relatively superior to that with the EA and APHRODITE datasets. The simulation results for the high-flow periods in 1998 and 2005 indicate that the CLHMS is promising for its future application in the flood simulation and prediction.

ESP and NOAH: computer programs for flood-risk analysis of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, D.P.; Montague, D.F.; Rooney, J.J.; Fussell, J.B.; Baker, L.S.

1982-06-01

This report describes a computer program package that aids in assessing the impact of floods on risk from nuclear power plants. The package consists of two distinct computer programs: ESP and NOAH. The ESP program improves the efficiency of a flood analysis by screening accident sequences and identifying accident sequences that are potentially significant contributors to risk in the event of a flood. Input to ESP includes accident sequences from an existing risk assessment and flood screening criteria. The NOAH program provides detailed qualitative analysis of the plant systems identified by ESP. NOAH performs a qualitative flood simulation of the fault tree

Advances in flash floods understanding and modelling derived from the FloodScale project in South-East France

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Braud Isabelle

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The Mediterranean area is prone to intense rainfall events triggering flash floods, characterized by very short response times that sometimes lead to dramatic consequences in terms of casualties and damages. These events can affect large territories, but their impact may be very local in catchments that are generally ungauged. These events remain difficult to predict and the processes leading to their generation still need to be clarified. The HyMeX initiative (Hydrological Cycle in the Mediterranean Experiment, 2010-2020 aims at increasing our understanding of the water cycle in the Mediterranean basin, in particular in terms of extreme events. In order to better understand processes leading to flash floods, a four-year experiment (2012-2015 was conducted in the Cévennes region (South-East France as part of the FloodScale project. Both continuous and opportunistic measurements during floods were conducted in two large catchments (Ardèche and Gard rivers with nested instrumentation from the hillslopes to catchments of about 1, 10, 100 to 1000 km2 covering contrasted geology and land use. Continuous measurements include distributed rainfall, stream water level, discharge, water temperature and conductivity and soil moisture measurements. Opportunistic measurements include surface soil moisture and geochemistry sampling during events and gauging of floods using non-contact methods: portable radars to measure surface water velocity or image sequence analysis using LS-PIV (Large Scale Particle Image Velocimetry. During the period 2012-2014, and in particular during autumn 2014, several intense events affected the catchments and provided very rich data sets. Data collection was complemented with modelling activity aiming at simulating observed processes. The modelling strategy was setup through a wide range of scales, in order to test hypotheses about physical processes at the smallest scales, and aggregated functioning hypothesis at the largest

Flood Risk Management in Remote and Impoverished Areas—A Case Study of Onaville, Haiti

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Valentin Heimhuber

2015-07-01

Full Text Available In this study, geographic information system (GIS-based hydrologic and hydraulic modeling was used to perform a flood risk assessment for Onaville, which is a fairly new, rapidly growing informal settlement that is exposed to dangerous flash-flood events. Since records of historic floods did not exist for the study area, design storms with a variety of significant average return intervals (ARIs were derived from intensity-duration-frequency (IDF curves and transformed into design floods via rainfall-runoff modeling in hydrologic engineering center’s hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS. The hydraulic modeling software hydrologic engineering center’s river analysis system (HEC-RAS was used to perform one-dimensional, unsteady-flow simulations of the design floods in the Ravine Lan Couline, which is the major drainage channel of the area. Topographic data comprised a 12 m spatial resolution TanDEM-X digital elevation model (DEM and a 30 cm spatial resolution DEM created with mapping drones. The flow simulations revealed that large areas of the settlement are currently exposed to flood hazard. The results of the hydrologic and hydraulic modeling were incorporated into a flood hazard map which formed the basis for flood risk management. We present a grassroots approach for preventive flood risk management on a community level, which comprises the elaboration of a neighborhood contingency plan and a flood risk awareness campaign together with representatives of the local community of Onaville.

Statistical analysis of the uncertainty related to flood hazard appraisal

Science.gov (United States)

Notaro, Vincenza; Freni, Gabriele

2015-12-01

The estimation of flood hazard frequency statistics for an urban catchment is of great interest in practice. It provides the evaluation of potential flood risk and related damage and supports decision making for flood risk management. Flood risk is usually defined as function of the probability, that a system deficiency can cause flooding (hazard), and the expected damage, due to the flooding magnitude (damage), taking into account both the exposure and the vulnerability of the goods at risk. The expected flood damage can be evaluated by an a priori estimation of potential damage caused by flooding or by interpolating real damage data. With regard to flood hazard appraisal several procedures propose to identify some hazard indicator (HI) such as flood depth or the combination of flood depth and velocity and to assess the flood hazard corresponding to the analyzed area comparing the HI variables with user-defined threshold values or curves (penalty curves or matrixes). However, flooding data are usually unavailable or piecemeal allowing for carrying out a reliable flood hazard analysis, therefore hazard analysis is often performed by means of mathematical simulations aimed at evaluating water levels and flow velocities over catchment surface. As results a great part of the uncertainties intrinsic to flood risk appraisal can be related to the hazard evaluation due to the uncertainty inherent to modeling results and to the subjectivity of the user defined hazard thresholds applied to link flood depth to a hazard level. In the present work, a statistical methodology was proposed for evaluating and reducing the uncertainties connected with hazard level estimation. The methodology has been applied to a real urban watershed as case study.

Quantifying chemical uncertainties in simulations of the ISM

Science.gov (United States)

Glover, Simon

2018-06-01

The ever-increasing power of large parallel computers now makes it possible to include increasingly sophisticated chemical models in three-dimensional simulations of the interstellar medium (ISM). This allows us to study the role that chemistry plays in the thermal balance of a realistically-structured, turbulent ISM, as well as enabling us to generated detailed synthetic observations of important atomic or molecular tracers. However, one major constraint on the accuracy of these models is the accuracy with which the input chemical rate coefficients are known. Uncertainties in these chemical rate coefficients inevitably introduce uncertainties into the model predictions. In this talk, I will review some of the methods we can use to quantify these uncertainties and to identify the key reactions where improved chemical data is most urgently required. I will also discuss a few examples, ranging from the local ISM to the high-redshift universe.

Surfactant loss control in chemical flooding spectroscopic and calorimetric study of adsorption and precipitation on reservoir minerals. Annual report, September 30, 1992--September 30 1995

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Casteel, J. [Bartlesville Project Office, OK (United States)

1996-07-01

The aim of this research project was to investigate mechanisms governing adsorption and surface precipitation of flooding surfactants on reservoir minerals. Effects of surfactant structure, surfactant combinations, various inorganic and polymeric species, and solids mineralogy have been determined. A multi-pronged approach consisting of micro & nano spectroscopy, electrokinetics, surface tension and wettability is used in this study. The results obtained should help in controlling surfactant loss in chemical flooding and in developing optimum structures and conditions for efficient chemical flooding processes. During the three years contract period, adsorption of single surfactants and select surfactant mixtures was studied at the solid-liquid and gas-liquid interfaces. Alkyl xylene sulfonates, polyethoxylated alkyl phenols, octaethylene glycol mono n-decyl ether, and tetradecyl trimethyl ammonium chloride were the surfactants studied. Adsorption of surfactant mixtures of varying composition was also investigated. The microstructure of the adsorbed layer was characterized using fluorescence spectroscopy. Changes in interfacial properties such as wettability, electrokinetics and stability of reservoir minerals were correlated with the amounts of reagent adsorbed. Strong effects of the structure of the surfactant and position of functional groups were revealed. Changes of microstructure upon dilution (desorption) were also studied. Presence of the nonionic surfactants in mixed aggregate leads to shielding of the charge of ionic surfactants which in turn promotes aggregation but reduced electrostatic attraction between the charged surfactant and the mineral surface. Strong consequences of surfactant interactions in solution on adsorption as well as correlations between monomer concentration in mixtures and adsorption were revealed.

A High Performance Chemical Simulation Preprocessor and Source Code Generator, Phase I

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Numerical simulations of chemical kinetics are a critical component of aerospace research, Earth systems research, and energy research. These simulations enable a...

Sustainability-Based Flood Hazard Mapping of the Swannanoa River Watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ebrahim Ahmadisharaf

2017-09-01

Full Text Available An integrated framework is presented for sustainability-based flood hazard mapping of the Swannanoa River watershed in the state of North Carolina, U.S. The framework uses a hydrologic model for rainfall–runoff transformation, a two-dimensional unsteady hydraulic model flood simulation and a GIS-based multi-criteria decision-making technique for flood hazard mapping. Economic, social, and environmental flood hazards are taken into account. The importance of each hazard is quantified through a survey to the experts. Utilizing the proposed framework, sustainability-based flood hazard mapping is performed for the 100-year design event. As a result, the overall flood hazard is provided in each geographic location. The sensitivity of the overall hazard with respect to the weights of the three hazard components were also investigated. While the conventional flood management approach is to assess the environmental impacts of mitigation measures after a set of feasible options are selected, the presented framework incorporates the environmental impacts into the analysis concurrently with the economic and social influences. Thereby, it provides a more sustainable perspective of flood management and can greatly help the decision makers to make better-informed decisions by clearly understanding the impacts of flooding on economy, society and environment.

Mesoscale simulations of shockwave energy dissipation via chemical reactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Antillon, Edwin; Strachan, Alejandro

2015-02-28

We use a particle-based mesoscale model that incorporates chemical reactions at a coarse-grained level to study the response of materials that undergo volume-reducing chemical reactions under shockwave-loading conditions. We find that such chemical reactions can attenuate the shockwave and characterize how the parameters of the chemical model affect this behavior. The simulations show that the magnitude of the volume collapse and velocity at which the chemistry propagates are critical to weaken the shock, whereas the energetics in the reactions play only a minor role. Shock loading results in transient states where the material is away from local equilibrium and, interestingly, chemical reactions can nucleate under such non-equilibrium states. Thus, the timescales for equilibration between the various degrees of freedom in the material affect the shock-induced chemistry and its ability to attenuate the propagating shock.

Geospatial Tools for Prevention of Urban Floods Case Study: River of EL Maleh (city of Mohammedia - Morocco)

Science.gov (United States)

Chaabane, M. S.; Abouali, N.; Boumeaza, T.; Zahouily, M.

2017-11-01

Today, the prevention and the risk management occupy an important part of public policy activities and are considered as major components in the process of sustainable development of territories. Due to the expansion of IT processes, in particular the geomatics sciences, decision-makers are increasingly requesting for digital tools before, during and after the risks of natural disasters. Both, the geographic information system (GIS) and the remote sensing are considered as geospatial and fundamental tools which help to understand the evolution of risks, to analyze their temporality and to make the right decisions. The historic events (on 1996, 2002 and 2010) which struck the city of Mohammedia and having caused the consequent damage to vital infrastructure and private property, require a thorough and rational analyze to benefit from it and well manage the floods phenomena. This article present i) the contribution of the geospatial tools for the floods simulation of Oued of el Maleh city at various return periods. These tools allow the demarcation of flood-risk areas and so to make floods simulations in several scenarios (decadal flood, 20-year flood, 50-year flood, 100-year flood, 500-year flood & also millennial flood) and besides (ii) present a synthesis map combining the territorial stakes superposed on the flood scenarios at different periods of return.

Improving Flood Predictions in Data-Scarce Basins

Science.gov (United States)

Vimal, Solomon; Zanardo, Stefano; Rafique, Farhat; Hilberts, Arno

2017-04-01

Flood modeling methodology at Risk Management Solutions Ltd. has evolved over several years with the development of continental scale flood risk models spanning most of Europe, the United States and Japan. Pluvial (rain fed) and fluvial (river fed) flood maps represent the basis for the assessment of regional flood risk. These maps are derived by solving the 1D energy balance equation for river routing and 2D shallow water equation (SWE) for overland flow. The models are run with high performance computing and GPU based solvers as the time taken for simulation is large in such continental scale modeling. These results are validated with data from authorities and business partners, and have been used in the insurance industry for many years. While this methodology has been proven extremely effective in regions where the quality and availability of data are high, its application is very challenging in other regions where data are scarce. This is generally the case for low and middle income countries, where simpler approaches are needed for flood risk modeling and assessment. In this study we explore new methods to make use of modeling results obtained in data-rich contexts to improve predictive ability in data-scarce contexts. As an example, based on our modeled flood maps in data-rich countries, we identify statistical relationships between flood characteristics and topographic and climatic indicators, and test their generalization across physical domains. Moreover, we apply the Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND)approach to estimate "probable" saturated areas for different return period flood events as functions of basin characteristics. This work falls into the well-established research field of Predictions in Ungauged Basins.

Development and new applications of quantum chemical simulation methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiss, A. K. H.

2012-01-01

The Division of Theoretical Chemistry at the University of Innsbruck is focused on the study of chemical compounds in aqueous solution, in terms of mainly hybrid quantum mechanical / molecular mechanical molecular dynamics simulations (QM/MM MD). Besides the standard means of data analysis employed for such simulations, this study presents several advanced and capable algorithms for the description of structural and dynamic properties of the simulated species and its hydration. The first part of this thesis further presents selected exemplary simulations, in particular a comparative study of Formamide and N-methylformamide, Guanidinium, and Urea. An included review article further summarizes the major advances of these studies. The computer programs developed in the course of this thesis are by now well established in the research field. The second part of this study presents the theory and a development guide for a quantum chemical program, QuMuLuS, that is by now used as a QM program for recent QM/MM simulations at the division. In its course, this part presents newly developed algorithms for electron integral evaluation and point charge embedding. This program is validated in terms of benchmark computations. The associated theory is presented on a detailed level, to serve as a source for contemporary and future studies in the division. In the third and final part, further investigations of related topics are addressed. This covers additional schemes of molecular simulation analysis, new software, as well as a mathematical investigation of a non-standard two-electron integral. (author)

Passive pH adjustment of nuclear reactor containment flood water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerlowski, T.J.

1986-01-01

A method is described of automatically and passively adjusting the pH of the recirculating liquid used to flood the containment structure of a nuclear reactor upon the occurence of an accident in order to cool the reactor core, wherein the containment structure has a concrete floor which is provided with at least one sump from which the liquid is withdrawn for recirculation via at least one outlet pipe. The method consists of: prior to flooding and during or prior to normal operation of the reactor, providing at least one perforated basket within at least one sump with the basket containing crystals of a pH adjusting chemical which is soluble in the liquid, and covering each basket with a plastic coating which is likewise soluble in the liquid, whereby upon flooding of the containment structure the liquid in the sump will reach the level of the baskets, causing the coating and the crystals to be dissolved and the chemical to mix with the recirculating liquid to adjust the pH

New chemical-DSMC method in numerical simulation of axisymmetric rarefied reactive flow

Science.gov (United States)

Zakeri, Ramin; Kamali Moghadam, Ramin; Mani, Mahmoud

2017-04-01

The modified quantum kinetic (MQK) chemical reaction model introduced by Zakeri et al. is developed for applicable cases in axisymmetric reactive rarefied gas flows using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. Although, the MQK chemical model uses some modifications in the quantum kinetic (QK) method, it also employs the general soft sphere collision model and Stockmayer potential function to properly select the collision pairs in the DSMC algorithm and capture both the attraction and repulsion intermolecular forces in rarefied gas flows. For assessment of the presented model in the simulation of more complex and applicable reacting flows, first, the air dissociation is studied in a single cell for equilibrium and non-equilibrium conditions. The MQK results agree well with the analytical and experimental data and they accurately predict the characteristics of the rarefied flowfield with chemical reaction. To investigate accuracy of the MQK chemical model in the simulation of the axisymmetric flow, air dissociation is also assessed in an axial hypersonic flow around two geometries, the sphere as a benchmark case and the blunt body (STS-2) as an applicable test case. The computed results including the transient, rotational and vibrational temperatures, species concentration in the stagnation line, and also the heat flux and pressure coefficient on the surface are compared with those of the other chemical methods like the QK and total collision energy (TCE) models and available analytical and experimental data. Generally, the MQK chemical model properly simulates the chemical reactions and predicts flowfield characteristics more accurate rather than the typical QK model. Although in some cases, results of the MQK approaches match with those of the TCE method, the main point is that the MQK does not need any experimental data or unrealistic assumption of specular boundary condition as used in the TCE method. Another advantage of the MQK model is the

Aerosol simulation including chemical and nuclear reactions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marwil, E.S.; Lemmon, E.C.

1985-01-01

The numerical simulation of aerosol transport, including the effects of chemical and nuclear reactions presents a challenging dynamic accounting problem. Particles of different sizes agglomerate and settle out due to various mechanisms, such as diffusion, diffusiophoresis, thermophoresis, gravitational settling, turbulent acceleration, and centrifugal acceleration. Particles also change size, due to the condensation and evaporation of materials on the particle. Heterogeneous chemical reactions occur at the interface between a particle and the suspending medium, or a surface and the gas in the aerosol. Homogeneous chemical reactions occur within the aersol suspending medium, within a particle, and on a surface. These reactions may include a phase change. Nuclear reactions occur in all locations. These spontaneous transmutations from one element form to another occur at greatly varying rates and may result in phase or chemical changes which complicate the accounting process. This paper presents an approach for inclusion of these effects on the transport of aerosols. The accounting system is very complex and results in a large set of stiff ordinary differential equations (ODEs). The techniques for numerical solution of these ODEs require special attention to achieve their solution in an efficient and affordable manner. 4 refs

The Potential of a Surfactant/Polymer Flood in a Middle Eastern Reservoir

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Meshal Algharaib

2012-01-01

Full Text Available An integrated full-field reservoir simulation study has been performed to determine the reservoir management and production strategies in a mature sandstone reservoir. The reservoir is a candidate for an enhanced oil recovery process or otherwise subject to abandonment. Based on its charateristics, the reservoir was found to be most suited for a surfactant/polymer (SP flood. The study started with a large data gathering and the building of a full-field three-dimensional geological model. Subsequently, a full field simulation model was built and used to history match the water flood. The history match of the water flood emphasizes the areas with remaining high oil saturations, establishes the initial condition of the reservoir for an SP flood, and generates a forecast of reserves for continued water flood operations. A sector model was constructed from the full field model and then used to study different design parameters to maximize the project profitability from the SP flood. An economic model, based on the estimated recovery, residual oil in-place, oil price, and operating costs, has been implemented in order to optimize the project profitability. The study resulted in the selection of surfactant and polymer concentrations and slug size that yielded the best economic returns when applied in this reservoir. The study shows that, in today’s oil prices, surfactant/polymer flood when applied in this reservoir has increased the ultimate oil recovery and provide a significant financial returns.

Operational flash flood forecasting platform based on grid technology

Science.gov (United States)

Thierion, V.; Ayral, P.-A.; Angelini, V.; Sauvagnargues-Lesage, S.; Nativi, S.; Payrastre, O.

2009-04-01

effort in term of grid technology development. This paper presents an operational flash flood forecasting platform which have been developed in the framework of CYCLOPS European project providing one of virtual organizations of EGEE project. This platform has been designed to enable multi-simulations processes to ease forecasting operations of several supervised watersheds on Grand Delta (SPC-GD) territory. Grid technology infrastructure, in providing multiple remote computing elements enables the processing of multiple rainfall scenarios, derived to the original meteorological forecasting transmitted by Meteo-France, and their respective hydrological simulations. First results show that from one forecasting scenario, this new presented approach can permit simulations of more than 200 different scenarios to support forecasters in their aforesaid mission and appears as an efficient hydrological decision-making tool. Although, this system seems operational, model validity has to be confirmed. So, further researches are necessary to improve models core to be more efficient in term of hydrological aspects. Finally, this platform could be an efficient tool for developing others modelling aspects as calibration or data assimilation in real time processing.

Mapping flood and flooding potential indices: a methodological approach to identifying areas susceptible to flood and flooding risk. Case study: the Prahova catchment (Romania)

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Zaharia, Liliana; Costache, Romulus; Prăvălie, Remus; Ioana-Toroimac, Gabriela

2017-04-01

Given that floods continue to cause yearly significant worldwide human and material damages, flood risk mitigation is a key issue and a permanent challenge in developing policies and strategies at various spatial scales. Therefore, a basic phase is elaborating hazard and flood risk maps, documents which are an essential support for flood risk management. The aim of this paper is to develop an approach that allows for the identification of flash-flood and flood-prone susceptible areas based on computing and mapping of two indices: FFPI (Flash-Flood Potential Index) and FPI (Flooding Potential Index). These indices are obtained by integrating in a GIS environment several geographical variables which control runoff (in the case of the FFPI) and favour flooding (in the case of the FPI). The methodology was applied in the upper (mountainous) and middle (hilly) catchment of the Prahova River, a densely populated and socioeconomically well-developed area which has been affected repeatedly by water-related hazards over the past decades. The resulting maps showing the spatialization of the FFPI and FPI allow for the identification of areas with high susceptibility to flashfloods and flooding. This approach can provide useful mapped information, especially for areas (generally large) where there are no flood/hazard risk maps. Moreover, the FFPI and FPI maps can constitute a preliminary step for flood risk and vulnerability assessment.

Flood Modelling of Banjir Kanal Barat (Integration of Hydrology Model and GIS

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Muhammad Aris Marfai

2004-01-01

Full Text Available Hydrological modelling has an advantage on river flood study. Hydrological factors can be easily determined and calculated using hydrological model. HEC-RAS (Hydrological Engineering Centre-River Analysis System software is well known as hydrological modelling software for flood simulation and encroachment analysis of the floodplain area. For spatial performance and analysis of flood, the integration of the Geographic Information Systems (GIS and hydrological model is needed. The aims of this research are 1 to perform a flood encroachment using HEC-RAS software, and 2 to generate a flood hazard map. The methodology for this research omprise of 1 generating geometric data as a requirement of the data input on HEC-RAS hydrological model, 2 Hydrological data inputting, 3 generating of the flood encroachment analysis, and 4 transformation of flood encroachment into flood hazard map. The spatial pattern of the flood hazard is illustrated in a map. The result shows that hydrological model as integration with GIS can be used for flood hazard map generation. This method has advantages on the calculation of the hydrological factors of flood and spatial performance of the flood hazard map. For further analysis, the landuse map can be used on the overlay operation with the flood hazard map in order to obtain the impact of the flood on the landuse.

The benefit of high-resolution operational weather forecasts for flash flood warning

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J. Younis

2008-07-01

Full Text Available In Mediterranean Europe, flash flooding is one of the most devastating hazards in terms of loss of human life and infrastructures. Over the last two decades, flash floods have caused damage costing a billion Euros in France alone. One of the problems of flash floods is that warning times are very short, leaving typically only a few hours for civil protection services to act. This study investigates if operationally available short-range numerical weather forecasts together with a rainfall-runoff model can be used for early indication of the occurrence of flash floods.

One of the challenges in flash flood forecasting is that the watersheds are typically small, and good observational networks of both rainfall and discharge are rare. Therefore, hydrological models are difficult to calibrate and the simulated river discharges cannot always be compared with ground measurements. The lack of observations in most flash flood prone basins, therefore, necessitates the development of a method where the excess of the simulated discharge above a critical threshold can provide the forecaster with an indication of potential flood hazard in the area, with lead times of the order of weather forecasts.

This study is focused on the Cévennes-Vivarais region in the Southeast of the Massif Central in France, a region known for devastating flash floods. This paper describes the main aspects of using numerical weather forecasting for flash flood forecasting, together with a threshold – exceedance. As a case study the severe flash flood event which took place on 8–9 September 2002 has been chosen.

Short-range weather forecasts, from the Lokalmodell of the German national weather service, are used as input for the LISFLOOD model, a hybrid between a conceptual and physically based rainfall-runoff model. Results of the study indicate that high resolution operational weather forecasting combined with a rainfall-runoff model could be useful to

Automated chemical kinetic modeling via hybrid reactive molecular dynamics and quantum chemistry simulations.

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Döntgen, Malte; Schmalz, Felix; Kopp, Wassja A; Kröger, Leif C; Leonhard, Kai

2018-06-13

An automated scheme for obtaining chemical kinetic models from scratch using reactive molecular dynamics and quantum chemistry simulations is presented. This methodology combines the phase space sampling of reactive molecular dynamics with the thermochemistry and kinetics prediction capabilities of quantum mechanics. This scheme provides the NASA polynomial and modified Arrhenius equation parameters for all species and reactions that are observed during the simulation and supplies them in the ChemKin format. The ab initio level of theory for predictions is easily exchangeable and the presently used G3MP2 level of theory is found to reliably reproduce hydrogen and methane oxidation thermochemistry and kinetics data. Chemical kinetic models obtained with this approach are ready-to-use for, e.g., ignition delay time simulations, as shown for hydrogen combustion. The presented extension of the ChemTraYzer approach can be used as a basis for methodologically advancing chemical kinetic modeling schemes and as a black-box approach to generate chemical kinetic models.

Health protection and risks for rescuers in cases of floods.

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Janev Holcer, Nataša; Jeličić, Pavle; Grba Bujević, Maja; Važanić, Damir

2015-03-01

Floods can pose a number of safety and health hazards for flood-affected populations and rescuers and bring risk of injuries, infections, and diseases due to exposure to pathogenic microorganisms and different biological and chemical contaminants. The risk factors and possible health consequences for the rescuers involved in evacuation and rescuing operations during the May 2014 flood crisis in Croatia are shown, as well as measures for the prevention of injuries and illnesses. In cases of extreme floods, divers play a particularly important role in rescuing and first-response activities. Rescuing in contaminated floodwaters means that the used equipment such as diving suits should be disinfected afterwards. The need for securing the implementation of minimal health and safety measures for involved rescuers is paramount. Data regarding injuries and disease occurrences among rescuers are relatively scarce, indicating the need for medical surveillance systems that would monitor and record all injuries and disease occurrences among rescuers in order to ensure sound epidemiological data. The harmful effects of flooding can be reduced by legislation, improvement of flood forecasting, establishing early warning systems, and appropriate planning and education.

Influence of Flood Detention Capability in Flood Prevention for Flood Disaster of Depression Area

OpenAIRE

Chia Lin Chan; Yi Ju Yang; Chih Chin Yang

2011-01-01

Rainfall records of rainfall station including the rainfall potential per hour and rainfall mass of five heavy storms are explored, respectively from 2001 to 2010. The rationalization formula is to investigate the capability of flood peak duration of flood detention pond in different rainfall conditions. The stable flood detention model is also proposed by using system dynamic control theory to get the message of flood detention pond in this research. When rainfall freque...

THE USE OF HEC-RAS MODELLING IN FLOOD RISK ANALYSIS

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IOSUB MARINA

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The fact that, in the Ozana drainage basin, most of the people have built their homes in the river valley, determines that a study focused on identifying the areas exposed to hydrological risk is vital, mostly in the development decisions for villages and in the creation of management plans for emergency situations. This study analyses the mapping methodology of the flood prone areas in the middle and lower sector of the Pluton river, which is a tributary of Ozana river, in its upper sector. In order to correctly draw the flood risk maps, the HEC-RAS method has been used, together with the HEC-GeoRAS extension, in ArcGIS. The results that have been obtained, correlate with the field situation in a very high proportion: for a 1% occurance flood, almost 123 households have been damaged, and according to the simulation, a number of 147 buildings have been damaged, therefore other probabilities (that overcome the 1% situation can be used for similar simulations.

Computational fluid dynamics simulations of the Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville flood

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Abril-Hernández, José M.; Periáñez, Raúl; O'Connor, Jim E.; Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel

2018-01-01

At approximately 18.0 ka, pluvial Lake Bonneville reached its maximum level. At its northeastern extent it was impounded by alluvium of the Marsh Creek Fan, which breached at some point north of Red Rock Pass (Idaho), leading to one of the largest floods on Earth. About 5320 km3 of water was discharged into the Snake River drainage and ultimately into the Columbia River. We use a 0D model and a 2D non-linear depth-averaged hydrodynamic model to aid understanding of outflow dynamics, specifically evaluating controls on the amount of water exiting the Lake Bonneville basin exerted by the Red Rock Pass outlet lithology and geometry as well as those imposed by the internal lake geometry of the Bonneville basin. These models are based on field evidence of prominent lake levels, hypsometry and terrain elevations corrected for post-flood isostatic deformation of the lake basin, as well as reconstructions of the topography at the outlet for both the initial and final stages of the flood. Internal flow dynamics in the northern Lake Bonneville basin during the flood were affected by the narrow passages separating the Cache Valley from the main body of Lake Bonneville. This constriction imposed a water-level drop of up to 2.7 m at the time of peak-flow conditions and likely reduced the peak discharge at the lake outlet by about 6%. The modeled peak outlet flow is 0.85·106 m3 s−1. Energy balance calculations give an estimate for the erodibility coefficient for the alluvial Marsh Creek divide of ∼0.005 m y−1 Pa−1.5, at least two orders of magnitude greater than for the underlying bedrock at the outlet. Computing quasi steady-state water flows, water elevations, water currents and shear stresses as a function of the water-level drop in the lake and for the sequential stages of erosion in the outlet gives estimates of the incision rates and an estimate of the outflow hydrograph during the Bonneville Flood: About 18 days would have been required for the

Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations of the Late Pleistocene Lake Bonneville Flood

Science.gov (United States)

Abril-Hernández, José M.; Periáñez, Raúl; O'Connor, Jim E.; Garcia-Castellanos, Daniel

2018-06-01

At approximately 18.0 ka, pluvial Lake Bonneville reached its maximum level. At its northeastern extent it was impounded by alluvium of the Marsh Creek Fan, which breached at some point north of Red Rock Pass (Idaho), leading to one of the largest floods on Earth. About 5320 km3 of water was discharged into the Snake River drainage and ultimately into the Columbia River. We use a 0D model and a 2D non-linear depth-averaged hydrodynamic model to aid understanding of outflow dynamics, specifically evaluating controls on the amount of water exiting the Lake Bonneville basin exerted by the Red Rock Pass outlet lithology and geometry as well as those imposed by the internal lake geometry of the Bonneville basin. These models are based on field evidence of prominent lake levels, hypsometry and terrain elevations corrected for post-flood isostatic deformation of the lake basin, as well as reconstructions of the topography at the outlet for both the initial and final stages of the flood. Internal flow dynamics in the northern Lake Bonneville basin during the flood were affected by the narrow passages separating the Cache Valley from the main body of Lake Bonneville. This constriction imposed a water-level drop of up to 2.7 m at the time of peak-flow conditions and likely reduced the peak discharge at the lake outlet by about 6%. The modeled peak outlet flow is 0.85·106 m3 s-1. Energy balance calculations give an estimate for the erodibility coefficient for the alluvial Marsh Creek divide of ∼0.005 m y-1 Pa-1.5, at least two orders of magnitude greater than for the underlying bedrock at the outlet. Computing quasi steady-state water flows, water elevations, water currents and shear stresses as a function of the water-level drop in the lake and for the sequential stages of erosion in the outlet gives estimates of the incision rates and an estimate of the outflow hydrograph during the Bonneville Flood: About 18 days would have been required for the outflow to grow from 10

Impacts of dyke development in flood prone areas in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta to downstream flood hazard

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Khanh Triet Nguyen, Van; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Fujii, Hideto; Kummu, Matti; Merz, Bruno; Apel, Heiko

2016-04-01

Chau and Chau Doc. The MK test statistic results (Z) for these stations are -0.23, -1.39 and -0.84 respectively. In contrary, significant increasing trend (at α = 1%) of annual flood peak at Can Tho and My Thuan is calculated, with the Z value are 5.20 and 4.28. A Monte Carlo experiment by adding assumed observation errors of 5%, 10% and 15% results in similar trend for these stations. After the trend analysis, a set of scenarios are generated based on various hydrological boundaries, infrastructure developments and climate change scenarios. The scenarios are simulated with the quasi-2D hydrodynamic model for the Mekong Delta (Dung, 2011; Manh, 2014) in order to separate and quantify the impacts of flood protection measures to the flood regime in the lower part of the delta in a spatially explicit manner, with a special focus on the urban and economic centers Can Tho and My Thuan. Based on these scenarios the change in flood hazard caused by the infrastructure development that has to be expected is described and possible mitigation actions are proposed.

Effects of Flood Control Strategies on Flood Resilience Under Sociohydrological Disturbances

Science.gov (United States)

Sung, Kyungmin; Jeong, Hanseok; Sangwan, Nikhil; Yu, David J.

2018-04-01

A community capacity to cope with flood hazards, or community flood resilience, emerges from the interplay of hydrological and social processes. This interplay can be significantly influenced by the flood control strategy adopted by a society, i.e., how a society sets its desired flood protection level and strives to achieve this goal. And this interplay can be further complicated by rising land-sea level differences, seasonal water level fluctuations, and economic change. But not much research has been done on how various forms of flood control strategies affect human-flood interactions under these disturbances and therefore flood resilience in the long run. The current study is an effort to address these issues by developing a conceptual model of human-flood interaction mediated by flood control strategies. Our model extends the existing model of Yu et al. (2017), who investigated the flood resilience of a community-based flood protection system in coastal Bangladesh. The major extensions made in this study are inclusions of various forms of flood control strategies (both adaptive and nonadaptive ones), the challenge of rising land-sea level differences, and various high tide level scenarios generated from modifying the statistical variances and averages. Our results show that adaptive forms of flood control strategies tend to outperform nonadaptive ones for maintaining the model community's flood protection system. Adaptive strategies that dynamically adjust target flood protection levels through close monitoring of flood damages and social memories of flood risk can help the model community deal with various disturbances.

Public perception of flood risks, flood forecasting and mitigation

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M. Brilly

2005-01-01

Full Text Available A multidisciplinary and integrated approach to the flood mitigation decision making process should provide the best response of society in a flood hazard situation including preparation works and post hazard mitigation. In Slovenia, there is a great lack of data on social aspects and public response to flood mitigation measures and information management. In this paper, two studies of flood perception in the Slovenian town Celje are represented. During its history, Celje was often exposed to floods, the most recent serious floods being in 1990 and in 1998, with a hundred and fifty return period and more than ten year return period, respectively. Two surveys were conducted in 1997 and 2003, with 157 participants from different areas of the town in the first, and 208 in the second study, aiming at finding the general attitude toward the floods. The surveys revealed that floods present a serious threat in the eyes of the inhabitants, and that the perception of threat depends, to a certain degree, on the place of residence. The surveys also highlighted, among the other measures, solidarity and the importance of insurance against floods.

Unexpected flood loss correlations across Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, Naomi; Boyd, Jessica

2017-04-01

Floods don't observe country borders, as highlighted by major events across Europe that resulted in heavy economic and insured losses in 1999, 2002, 2009 and 2013. Flood loss correlations between some countries occur along multi-country river systems or between neighbouring nations affected by the same weather systems. However, correlations are not so obvious and whilst flooding in multiple locations across Europe may appear independent, for a re/insurer providing cover across the continent, these unexpected correlations can lead to high loss accumulations. A consistent, continental-scale method that allows quantification and comparison of losses, and identifies correlations in loss between European countries is therefore essential. A probabilistic model for European river flooding was developed that allows estimation of potential losses to pan-European property portfolios. By combining flood hazard and exposure information in a catastrophe modelling platform, we can consider correlations between river basins across Europe rather than being restricted to country boundaries. A key feature of the model is its statistical event set based on extreme value theory. Using historical river flow data, the event set captures spatial and temporal patterns of flooding across Europe and simulates thousands of events representing a full range of possible scenarios. Some known correlations were identified, such as between neighbouring Belgium and Luxembourg where 28% of events that affect either country produce a loss in both. However, our model identified some unexpected correlations including between Austria and Poland, and Poland and France, which are geographically distant. These correlations in flood loss may be missed by traditional methods and are key for re/insurers with risks in multiple countries. The model also identified that 46% of European river flood events affect more than one country. For more extreme events with a return period higher than 200 years, all events

Evaluation of urban flood damages in climate and land use changes: Case Studies from Southeast Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Kefi, M.; Binaya, M. K.; Kumar, P.; Fukushi, K.

2017-12-01

Urbanization, changes in land use and global warming increase the threat of natural disasters such as flooding. In recent decades, it was observed a rise of intensity and frequency of flood events. The exposure both of people and the national economy to flood hazards is amplified and can induce serious economic and social damages. For this reason, local governments adopted several strategies to cope with flood risk in urban areas in particular, but a better comprehension of the flood hazard factors may enhance the efficiency of mitigating measures overall. For this research, a spatial analysis is applied to estimate future direct flood damage for 2030 in three Southeast Asian megacities: Jakarta (Indonesia), Metro-Manila (Philippines) and Hanoi (Vietnam). This comprehensive method combined flood characteristics (flood depth) obtained from flood simulation using FLO-2D, land use generated from supervised classification and remote sensing products, property value of affected buildings and flood damage rate derived from flood depth function. This function is established based on field surveys with local people affected by past flood events. Additionally, two scenarios were analyzed to simulate the future conditions. The first one is related to climate change and it is based on several General Circulation Models (GCMs). However, the second one is establish to point out the effect of adaptation strategies. The findings shows that the climate change combined with the expansion of built-up areas increase the vulnerability of urban areas to flooding and the economic damage. About 16%, 8% and 19% of flood inundation areas are expected to increase respectively in Metro-Manila, Jakarta and Hanoi. However, appropriate flood control measures can be helpful to reduce the impact of natural disaster. Furthermore, flood damage maps are generated at a large scale, which can be helpful to local stakeholders when prioritizing their mitigation strategies on urban disaster resilience.

Extreme weather: Subtropical floods and tropical cyclones

Science.gov (United States)

Shaevitz, Daniel A.

Extreme weather events have a large effect on society. As such, it is important to understand these events and to project how they may change in a future, warmer climate. The aim of this thesis is to develop a deeper understanding of two types of extreme weather events: subtropical floods and tropical cyclones (TCs). In the subtropics, the latitude is high enough that quasi-geostrophic dynamics are at least qualitatively relevant, while low enough that moisture may be abundant and convection strong. Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent, and large latent heat release. In the first part of this thesis, I examine the possible triggering of convection by the large-scale dynamics and investigate the coupling between the two. Specifically two examples of extreme precipitation events in the subtropics are analyzed, the 2010 and 2014 floods of India and Pakistan and the 2015 flood of Texas and Oklahoma. I invert the quasi-geostrophic omega equation to decompose the large-scale vertical motion profile to components due to synoptic forcing and diabatic heating. Additionally, I present model results from within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A single column model and cloud-revolving model are forced with the large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation with input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. It is found that convection was triggered primarily by mechanically forced orographic ascent over the Himalayas during the India/Pakistan flood and by upper-level Potential Vorticity disturbances during the Texas/Oklahoma flood. Furthermore, a climate attribution analysis was conducted for the Texas/Oklahoma flood and it is found that anthropogenic climate change was responsible for a small amount of rainfall during the event but the

Fragility analysis of flood protection structures in earthquake and flood prone areas around Cologne, Germany for multi-hazard risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Tyagunov, Sergey; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Munoz Jimenez, Cristina; Parolai, Stefano; Fleming, Kevin; Merz, Bruno; Zschau, Jochen

2013-04-01

The work presents a methodology for fragility analyses of fluvial earthen dikes in earthquake and flood prone areas. Fragility estimates are being integrated into the multi-hazard (earthquake-flood) risk analysis being undertaken within the framework of the EU FP7 project MATRIX (New Multi-Hazard and Multi-Risk Assessment Methods for Europe) for the city of Cologne, Germany. Scenarios of probable cascading events due to the earthquake-triggered failure of flood protection dikes and the subsequent inundation of surroundings are analyzed for the area between the gauges Andernach and Düsseldorf along the Rhine River. Along this river stretch, urban areas are partly protected by earthen dikes, which may be prone to failure during exceptional floods and/or earthquakes. The seismic fragility of the dikes is considered in terms of liquefaction potential (factor of safety), estimated by the use of the simplified procedure of Seed and Idriss. It is assumed that initiation of liquefaction at any point throughout the earthen dikes' body corresponds to the failure of the dike and, therefore, this should be taken into account for the flood risk calculations. The estimated damage potential of such structures is presented as a two-dimensional surface (as a function of seismic hazard and water level). Uncertainties in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters are considered within the framework of Monte Carlo simulations. Taking into consideration the spatial configuration of the existing flood protection system within the area under consideration, seismic hazard curves (in terms of PGA) are calculated for sites along the river segment of interest at intervals of 1 km. The obtained estimates are used to calculate the flood risk when considering the temporal coincidence of seismic and flood events. Changes in flood risk for the considered hazard cascade scenarios are quantified and compared to the single-hazard scenarios.

Potential increase in floods in California's Sierra Nevada under future climate projections

Science.gov (United States)

Das, T.; Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Hidalgo, H.G.

2011-01-01

California's mountainous topography, exposure to occasional heavily moisture-laden storm systems, and varied communities and infrastructures in low lying areas make it highly vulnerable to floods. An important question facing the state-in terms of protecting the public and formulating water management responses to climate change-is "how might future climate changes affect flood characteristics in California?" To help address this, we simulate floods on the western slopes of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, the state's primary catchment, based on downscaled daily precipitation and temperature projections from three General Circulation Models (GCMs). These climate projections are fed into the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, and the VIC-simulated streamflows and hydrologic conditions, from historical and from projected climate change runs, allow us to evaluate possible changes in annual maximum 3-day flood magnitudes and frequencies of floods. By the end of the 21st Century, all projections yield larger-than-historical floods, for both the Northern Sierra Nevada (NSN) and for the Southern Sierra Nevada (SSN). The increases in flood magnitude are statistically significant (at p models, while under the third scenario, GFDL CM2. 1, frequencies remain constant or decline slightly, owing to an overall drying trend. These increases appear to derive jointly from increases in heavy precipitation amount, storm frequencies, and days with more precipitation falling as rain and less as snow. Increases in antecedent winter soil moisture also play a role in some areas. Thus, a complex, as-yet unpredictable interplay of several different climatic influences threatens to cause increased flood hazards in California's complex western Sierra landscapes. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Flood prediction, its risk and mitigation for the Babura River with GIS

Science.gov (United States)

Tarigan, A. P. M.; Hanie, M. Z.; Khair, H.; Iskandar, R.

2018-03-01

This paper describes the flood prediction along the Babura River, the catchment of which is within the comparatively larger watershed of the Deli River which crosses the centre part of Medan City. The flood plain and ensuing inundation area were simulated using HECRAS based on the available data of rainfall, catchment, and river cross-sections. The results were shown in a GIS format in which the city map of Medan and other infrastructure layers were stacked for spatial analysis. From the resulting GIS, it can be seen that 13 sub-districts were likely affected by the flood, and then the risk calculation of the flood damage could be estimated. In the spirit of flood mitigation thoughts, 6 locations of evacuation centres were identified and 15 evacuation routes were recommended to reach the centres. It is hoped that the flood prediction and its risk estimation in this study will inspire the preparedness of the stakeholders for the probable threat of flood disaster.

Development of an Advanced Simulator to Model Mobility Control and Geomechanics during CO{sub 2} Floods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Delshad, Mojdeh; Wheeler, Mary; Sepehrnoori, Kamy; Pope, Gary

2013-12-31

The simulator is an isothermal, three-dimensional, four-phase, compositional, equation-of– state (EOS) simulator. We have named the simulator UTDOE-CO2 capable of simulating various recovery processes (i.e., primary, secondary waterflooding, and miscible and immiscible gas flooding). We include both the Peng-Robinson EOS and the Redlich-Kwong EOS models. A Gibbs stability test is also included in the model to perform a phase identification test to consistently label each phase for subsequent property calculations such as relative permeability, viscosity, density, interfacial tension, and capillary pressure. Our time step strategy is based on an IMPEC-type method (implicit pressure and explicit concentration). The gridblock pressure is solved first using the explicit dating of saturation-dependent terms. Subsequently, the material balance equations are solved explicitly for the total concentration of each component. The physical dispersion term is also included in the governing equations. The simulator includes (1) several foam model(s) for gas mobility control, (2) compositional relative permeability models with the hysteresis option, (3) corner point grid and several efficient solvers, (4) geomechanics module to compute stress field as the result of CO{sub 2} injection/production, (5) the format of commercial visualization software, S3graf from Science-soft Ltd., was implemented for user friendly visualization of the simulation results. All tasks are completed and the simulator was fully tested and delivered to the DOE office including a user’s guide and several input files and the executable for Windows Pcs. We have published several SPE papers, presented several posters, and one MS thesis is completed (V. Pudugramam, 2013) resulting from this DOE funded project.

Simulating Chemical Kinetics Without Differential Equations: A Quantitative Theory Based on Chemical Pathways.

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Shirong; Skodje, Rex T

2017-08-17

A new approach is presented for simulating the time-evolution of chemically reactive systems. This method provides an alternative to conventional modeling of mass-action kinetics that involves solving differential equations for the species concentrations. The method presented here avoids the need to solve the rate equations by switching to a representation based on chemical pathways. In the Sum Over Histories Representation (or SOHR) method, any time-dependent kinetic observable, such as concentration, is written as a linear combination of probabilities for chemical pathways leading to a desired outcome. In this work, an iterative method is introduced that allows the time-dependent pathway probabilities to be generated from a knowledge of the elementary rate coefficients, thus avoiding the pitfalls involved in solving the differential equations of kinetics. The method is successfully applied to the model Lotka-Volterra system and to a realistic H 2 combustion model.

Floodplain simulation for Musi River using integrated 1D/2D hydrodynamic model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Al Amin Muhammad B.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the simulation of floodplain at Musi River using integrated 1D and 2D hydrodynamic model. The 1D flow simulation was applied for the river channel with flow hydrograph as upstream boundary condition. The result of 1D flow simulation was integrated into 2D flow simulation in order to know the area and characteristics of flood inundation. The input data of digital terrain model which was used in this research had grid resolution of 10m×10m, but for 2D simulation the resolution was with grid resolution 50 m × 50 m so as to limit simulation time since the model size was big enough. The result of the simulation showed that the inundated area surrounding Musi River is about 107.44 km2 with maximum flood depth is 3.24 m, water surface velocity ranges from 0.00 to 0.83 m/s. Most of floodplain areas varied from middle to high flood hazard level, and only few areas had very high level of flood hazard especially on river side. The structural flood control measurement to be recommended to Palembang is to construct flood dike and flood gate. The non structural measurement one is to improve watershed management and socialization of flood awareness.

Do regional methods really help reduce uncertainties in flood frequency analyses?

Science.gov (United States)

Cong Nguyen, Chi; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric

2013-04-01

Flood frequency analyses are often based on continuous measured series at gauge sites. However, the length of the available data sets is usually too short to provide reliable estimates of extreme design floods. To reduce the estimation uncertainties, the analyzed data sets have to be extended either in time, making use of historical and paleoflood data, or in space, merging data sets considered as statistically homogeneous to build large regional data samples. Nevertheless, the advantage of the regional analyses, the important increase of the size of the studied data sets, may be counterbalanced by the possible heterogeneities of the merged sets. The application and comparison of four different flood frequency analysis methods to two regions affected by flash floods in the south of France (Ardèche and Var) illustrates how this balance between the number of records and possible heterogeneities plays in real-world applications. The four tested methods are: (1) a local statistical analysis based on the existing series of measured discharges, (2) a local analysis valuating the existing information on historical floods, (3) a standard regional flood frequency analysis based on existing measured series at gauged sites and (4) a modified regional analysis including estimated extreme peak discharges at ungauged sites. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to simulate a large number of discharge series with characteristics similar to the observed ones (type of statistical distributions, number of sites and records) to evaluate to which extent the results obtained on these case studies can be generalized. These two case studies indicate that even small statistical heterogeneities, which are not detected by the standard homogeneity tests implemented in regional flood frequency studies, may drastically limit the usefulness of such approaches. On the other hand, these result show that the valuation of information on extreme events, either historical flood events at gauged

A Study of the arsenic profiles in NMOS by using chemical etching and simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jung, Won-Chae; Lee, Kil-Dong

2004-01-01

For integrated semiconductor devices, the one-, two-, and three-dimensional impurity distributions are very important for the analyzing the devices. The one-dimensional arsenic profiles were measured by using secondary ion mass spectroscopy (SIMS), and simulation data were obtained by using the TSUPREM4 and UT-Marlowe programs. The two-dimensional profiles of arsenic were directly measured by using the chemical etching-method, and the measured 2D profiles were compared with simulation data obtained from TSUPREM4. A Taurus simulation tool was used to obtain the 3D arsenic profiles. The simulated data of UT-Marlowe in 1D agreed very well with the SIMS data. The measured two-dimensional transmission electron microscope (TEM) data obtained by using the chemical etching-method matched very well with the results of the TSUPREM4 simulation. The chemical etching and the TEM measurement methods demonstrated and visualized the two-dimensional impurity distributions and structures of the devices.

Flood model for Brazil

Science.gov (United States)

Palán, Ladislav; Punčochář, Petr

2017-04-01

Looking on the impact of flooding from the World-wide perspective, in last 50 years flooding has caused over 460,000 fatalities and caused serious material damage. Combining economic loss from ten costliest flood events (from the same period) returns a loss (in the present value) exceeding 300bn USD. Locally, in Brazil, flood is the most damaging natural peril with alarming increase of events frequencies as 5 out of the 10 biggest flood losses ever recorded have occurred after 2009. The amount of economic and insured losses particularly caused by various flood types was the key driver of the local probabilistic flood model development. Considering the area of Brazil (being 5th biggest country in the World) and the scattered distribution of insured exposure, a domain covered by the model was limited to the entire state of Sao Paolo and 53 additional regions. The model quantifies losses on approx. 90 % of exposure (for regular property lines) of key insurers. Based on detailed exposure analysis, Impact Forecasting has developed this tool using long term local hydrological data series (Agencia Nacional de Aguas) from riverine gauge stations and digital elevation model (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística). To provide most accurate representation of local hydrological behaviour needed for the nature of probabilistic simulation, a hydrological data processing focused on frequency analyses of seasonal peak flows - done by fitting appropriate extreme value statistical distribution and stochastic event set generation consisting of synthetically derived flood events respecting realistic spatial and frequency patterns visible in entire period of hydrological observation. Data were tested for homogeneity, consistency and for any significant breakpoint occurrence in time series so the entire observation or only its subparts were used for further analysis. The realistic spatial patterns of stochastic events are reproduced through the innovative use of d-vine copula

A system for generating long streamflow records for study of floods of long return period: Phase 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Franz, D.D.; Kraeger, B.A.; Linsley, R.K.

1989-02-01

Knowledge of the return periods of large floods is required to make risk analyses for nuclear power plants subject to flooding from rivers. The system reported here combined the stochastic simulation of hourly rainfall data and daily pan evaporation data with the deterministic simulation of streamflow by using the synthetic rainfall and evaporation data as input to a calibrated rainfall runoff model. The sequence of annual maximum flood peaks from a synthetic record of 10,000 years or more was then analyzed to obtain estimates of flood frequency. The reasonableness of the flood frequency results must be evaluated on the degree of mimicry of the key characteristics of the observed rainfall data and the ability of the rainfall-runoff model to mimic the observed flood frequency during the calibration period. On this basis, the flood frequency results appeared to be a reasonable extrapolation of the data used in defining the model parameters. There is a need to develop regional parameters for the stochastic models and to conduct research on the relationship between the stochastic structure of rainfall and stochastic structure of flood frequency. The methodology is applicable, assuming a highly skilled analyst, to watersheds similar to those already tested

Flood hazard mapping of Palembang City by using 2D model

Science.gov (United States)

Farid, Mohammad; Marlina, Ayu; Kusuma, Muhammad Syahril Badri

2017-11-01

Palembang as the capital city of South Sumatera Province is one of the metropolitan cities in Indonesia that flooded almost every year. Flood in the city is highly related to Musi River Basin. Based on Indonesia National Agency of Disaster Management (BNPB), the level of flood hazard is high. Many natural factors caused flood in the city such as high intensity of rainfall, inadequate drainage capacity, and also backwater flow due to spring tide. Furthermore, anthropogenic factors such as population increase, land cover/use change, and garbage problem make flood problem become worse. The objective of this study is to develop flood hazard map of Palembang City by using two dimensional model. HEC-RAS 5.0 is used as modelling tool which is verified with field observation data. There are 21 sub catchments of Musi River Basin in the flood simulation. The level of flood hazard refers to Head Regulation of BNPB number 2 in 2012 regarding general guideline of disaster risk assessment. The result for 25 year return per iod of flood shows that with 112.47 km2 area of inundation, 14 sub catchments are categorized in high hazard level. It is expected that the hazard map can be used for risk assessment.

Improving operational flood forecasting through data assimilation

Science.gov (United States)

Rakovec, Oldrich; Weerts, Albrecht; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Hazenberg, Pieter; Torfs, Paul

2010-05-01

Accurate flood forecasts have been a challenging topic in hydrology for decades. Uncertainty in hydrological forecasts is due to errors in initial state (e.g. forcing errors in historical mode), errors in model structure and parameters and last but not least the errors in model forcings (weather forecasts) during the forecast mode. More accurate flood forecasts can be obtained through data assimilation by merging observations with model simulations. This enables to identify the sources of uncertainties in the flood forecasting system. Our aim is to assess the different sources of error that affect the initial state and to investigate how they propagate through hydrological models with different levels of spatial variation, starting from lumped models. The knowledge thus obtained can then be used in a data assimilation scheme to improve the flood forecasts. This study presents the first results of this framework and focuses on quantifying precipitation errors and its effect on discharge simulations within the Ourthe catchment (1600 km2), which is situated in the Belgian Ardennes and is one of the larger subbasins of the Meuse River. Inside the catchment, hourly rain gauge information from 10 different locations is available over a period of 15 years. Based on these time series, the bootstrap method has been applied to generate precipitation ensembles. These were then used to simulate the catchment's discharges at the outlet. The corresponding streamflow ensembles were further assimilated with observed river discharges to update the model states of lumped hydrological models (R-PDM, HBV) through Residual Resampling. This particle filtering technique is a sequential data assimilation method and takes no prior assumption of the probability density function for the model states, which in contrast to the Ensemble Kalman filter does not have to be Gaussian. Our further research will be aimed at quantifying and reducing the sources of uncertainty that affect the initial

Numerical simulation study on rolling-chemical milling process of aluminum-lithium alloy skin panel

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Z. B.; Sun, Z. G.; Sun, X. F.; Li, X. Q.

2017-09-01

Single curvature parts such as aircraft fuselage skin panels are usually manufactured by rolling-chemical milling process, which is usually faced with the problem of geometric accuracy caused by springback. In most cases, the methods of manual adjustment and multiple roll bending are used to control or eliminate the springback. However, these methods can cause the increase of product cost and cycle, and lead to material performance degradation. Therefore, it is of significance to precisely control the springback of rolling-chemical milling process. In this paper, using the method of experiment and numerical simulation on rolling-chemical milling process, the simulation model for rolling-chemical milling process of 2060-T8 aluminum-lithium alloy skin was established and testified by the comparison between numerical simulation and experiment results for the validity. Then, based on the numerical simulation model, the relative technological parameters which influence on the curvature of the skin panel were analyzed. Finally, the prediction of springback and the compensation can be realized by controlling the process parameters.

Hybrid framework for the simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duncan, Andrew; Erban, Radek; Zygalakis, Konstantinos

2016-01-01

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) [25]. While easy to implement and exact, the computational cost of using the Gillespie SSA to simulate such systems can become prohibitive as the frequency of reaction events increases. This has motivated numerous coarse-grained schemes, where the “fast” reactions are approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. While such approaches provide a good approximation when all reactants are abundant, the approximation breaks down when one or more species exist only in small concentrations and the fluctuations arising from the discrete nature of the reactions become significant. This is particularly problematic when using such methods to compute statistics of extinction times for chemical species, as well as simulating non-equilibrium systems such as cell-cycle models in which a single species can cycle between abundance and scarcity. In this paper, a hybrid jump-diffusion model for simulating well-mixed stochastic kinetics is derived. It acts as a bridge between the Gillespie SSA and the chemical Langevin equation. For low reactant reactions the underlying behaviour is purely discrete, while purely diffusive when the concentrations of all species are large, with the two different behaviours coexisting in the intermediate region. A bound on the weak error in the classical large volume scaling limit is obtained, and three different numerical discretisations of the jump-diffusion model are described. The benefits of such a formalism are illustrated using computational examples.

Hybrid framework for the simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Andrew; Erban, Radek; Zygalakis, Konstantinos

2016-12-01

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) [25]. While easy to implement and exact, the computational cost of using the Gillespie SSA to simulate such systems can become prohibitive as the frequency of reaction events increases. This has motivated numerous coarse-grained schemes, where the "fast" reactions are approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. While such approaches provide a good approximation when all reactants are abundant, the approximation breaks down when one or more species exist only in small concentrations and the fluctuations arising from the discrete nature of the reactions become significant. This is particularly problematic when using such methods to compute statistics of extinction times for chemical species, as well as simulating non-equilibrium systems such as cell-cycle models in which a single species can cycle between abundance and scarcity. In this paper, a hybrid jump-diffusion model for simulating well-mixed stochastic kinetics is derived. It acts as a bridge between the Gillespie SSA and the chemical Langevin equation. For low reactant reactions the underlying behaviour is purely discrete, while purely diffusive when the concentrations of all species are large, with the two different behaviours coexisting in the intermediate region. A bound on the weak error in the classical large volume scaling limit is obtained, and three different numerical discretisations of the jump-diffusion model are described. The benefits of such a formalism are illustrated using computational examples.

Hybrid framework for the simulation of stochastic chemical kinetics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duncan, Andrew, E-mail: a.duncan@imperial.ac.uk [Department of Mathematics, Imperial College, South Kensington Campus, London, SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Erban, Radek, E-mail: erban@maths.ox.ac.uk [Mathematical Institute, University of Oxford, Radcliffe Observatory Quarter, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG (United Kingdom); Zygalakis, Konstantinos, E-mail: k.zygalakis@ed.ac.uk [School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, Peter Guthrie Tait Road, Edinburgh, EH9 3FD (United Kingdom)

2016-12-01

Stochasticity plays a fundamental role in various biochemical processes, such as cell regulatory networks and enzyme cascades. Isothermal, well-mixed systems can be modelled as Markov processes, typically simulated using the Gillespie Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA) [25]. While easy to implement and exact, the computational cost of using the Gillespie SSA to simulate such systems can become prohibitive as the frequency of reaction events increases. This has motivated numerous coarse-grained schemes, where the “fast” reactions are approximated either using Langevin dynamics or deterministically. While such approaches provide a good approximation when all reactants are abundant, the approximation breaks down when one or more species exist only in small concentrations and the fluctuations arising from the discrete nature of the reactions become significant. This is particularly problematic when using such methods to compute statistics of extinction times for chemical species, as well as simulating non-equilibrium systems such as cell-cycle models in which a single species can cycle between abundance and scarcity. In this paper, a hybrid jump-diffusion model for simulating well-mixed stochastic kinetics is derived. It acts as a bridge between the Gillespie SSA and the chemical Langevin equation. For low reactant reactions the underlying behaviour is purely discrete, while purely diffusive when the concentrations of all species are large, with the two different behaviours coexisting in the intermediate region. A bound on the weak error in the classical large volume scaling limit is obtained, and three different numerical discretisations of the jump-diffusion model are described. The benefits of such a formalism are illustrated using computational examples.

Dynamic building risk assessment theoretic model for rainstorm-flood utilization ABM and ABS

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Wenze; Li, Wenbo; Wang, Hailei; Huang, Yingliang; Wu, Xuelian; Sun, Bingyun

2015-12-01

Flood is one of natural disasters with the worst loss in the world. It needs to assess flood disaster risk so that we can reduce the loss of flood disaster. Disaster management practical work needs the dynamic risk results of building. Rainstorm flood disaster system is a typical complex system. From the view of complex system theory, flood disaster risk is the interaction result of hazard effect objects, rainstorm flood hazard factors, and hazard environments. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is an important tool for complex system modeling. Rainstorm-flood building risk dynamic assessment method (RFBRDAM) was proposed using ABM in this paper. The interior structures and procedures of different agents in proposed meth had been designed. On the Netlogo platform, the proposed method was implemented to assess the building risk changes of the rainstorm flood disaster in the Huaihe River Basin using Agent-based simulation (ABS). The results indicated that the proposed method can dynamically assess building risk of the whole process for the rainstorm flood disaster. The results of this paper can provide one new approach for flood disaster building risk dynamic assessment and flood disaster management.

PH Sensitive Polymers for Improving Reservoir Sweep and Conformance Control in Chemical Flooring

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mukul Sharma; Steven Bryant; Chun Huh

2008-03-31

it at a pH below 3.5 (at a fixed bottom-hole pressure). This improvement in injectivity by a factor of 2 to 10 can have a significant impact on the economics of chemical flooding and conformance control applications. Simulation tools and experimental data presented in this report help to design and implement such polymer injection projects.