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  1. Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew

    2014-01-01

    Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

  2. Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EK Shuman

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is occurring as a result of warming of the earth’s atmosphere due to human activity generating excess amounts of greenhouse gases. Because of its potential impact on the hydrologic cycle and severe weather events, climate change is expected to have an enormous effect on human health, including on the burden and distribution of many infectious diseases. The infectious diseases that will be most affected by climate change include those that are spread by insect vectors and by contaminated water. The burden of adverse health effects due to these infectious diseases will fall primarily on developing countries, while it is the developed countries that are primarily responsible for climate change. It is up to governments and individuals to take the lead in halting climate change, and we must increase our understanding of the ecology of infectious diseases in order to protect vulnerable populations.

  3. Global climate change and infectious diseases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shope, R. (Yale Univ. School of Medicine, New Haven, CT (United States))

    1991-12-01

    The effects of global climate change on infectious diseases are hypothetical until more is known about the degree of change in temperature and humidity that will occur. Diseases most likely to increase in their distribution and severity have three-factor (agent, vector, and human being) and four-factor (plus vertebrate reservoir host) ecology. Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes may move northward and have more rapid metamorphosis with global warming. These mosquitoes transmit dengue virus, and Aedes aegypti transmits yellow fever virus. The faster metamorphosis and a shorter extrinsic incubation of dengue and yellow fever viruses could lead to epidemics in North America. Vibrio cholera is harbored persistently in the estuaries of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Over the past 200 years, cholera has become pandemic seven times with spread from Asia to Europe, Africa, and North America. Global warming may lead to changes in water ecology that could enhance similar spread of cholera in North America. Some other infectious diseases such as LaCrosse encephalitis and Lyme disease are caused by agents closely dependent on the integrity of their environment. These diseases may become less prominent with global warming because of anticipated modification of their habitats. Ecological studies will help as to understand more fully the possible consequences of global warming. New and more effective methods for control of vectors will be needed. 12 refs., 1 tab.

  4. INFECTIOUS PATHOLOGY OF MOTHER AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE ANTHROPOMETRIC PARAMETERS OF NEWBORNS

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    Markovsky V. D.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The presence in pregnant woman foci of latent, chronic infection of any localization is an important cause of various complications during pregnancy, childbirth, a wide range of perinatal pathology. The purpose of this study was to reveal the influence of mother infectious diseases on the anthropometric parameters of newborns. The authors set up an experiment on WAG rats on modeling subacute (prolonged peritonitis in females in order to study the influence of this infectiousinflammatory process in the organism of mother on the anthropometric parameters of newborns. The study found that the presence of infectious-inflammatory diseases in mother is not always leads to inflammatory changes in the placenta, but involutive- degenerative and dyscirculatory changes are taking place in all cases. In newborns from mothers with infectious pathology revealed significantly reduced anthropometric parameters in comparison with newborns from healthy mothers. Anthropometric parameters of newborns from mothers with infectious pathology depend on the infective dose (the higher the dose of agent, the less neonatal anthropometric parameters. Negative influence of infectious extragenital pathology of mother on newborn anthropometric parameters requires improving the quality of pregravidal training aimed at early detection and sanitation of foci of infection.

  5. Climate change and adaptation of the health sector: The case of infectious diseases.

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    Confalonieri, Ulisses E C; Menezes, Júlia Alves; Margonari de Souza, Carina

    2015-01-01

    Infectious diseases form a group of health problems highly susceptible to the influences of climate. Adaptation to protect human population health from the changes in infectious disease epidemiology expected to occur as a consequence of climate change involve actions in the health systems as well as in other non-health sectors. In the health sector strategies such as enhanced and targeted epidemiological and entomological surveillance and the development of epidemic early warning systems informed by climate scenarios are needed. Measures in other sectors such as meteorology, civil defense and environmental sanitation will also contribute to a reduction in the risk of infection under climate change.

  6. Climate change and infectious diseases of wildlife: Altered interactions between pathogens, vectors and hosts

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Milena GALLANA; Marie-Pierre RYSER-DEGIORGIS; Thomas WAHLI; Helmut SEGNER

    2013-01-01

    Infectious diseases result from the interactions of host,pathogens,and,in the case of vector-borne diseases,also vectors.The interactions involve physiological and ecological mechanisms and they have evolved under a given set of environmental conditions.Environmental change,therefore,will alter host-pathogen-vector interactions and,consequently,the distribution,intensity,and dynamics of infectious diseases.Here,we review how climate change may impact infectious diseases of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife.Climate change can have direct impacts on distribution,life cycle,and physiological status of hosts,pathogens and vectors.While a change in either host,pathogen or vector does not necessarily translate into an alteration of the disease,it is the impact of climate change on the interactions between the disease components which is particularly critical for altered disease risks.Finally,climate factors can modulate disease through modifying the ecological networks host-pathogen-vector systems are belonging to,and climate change can combine with other environmental stressors to induce cumulative effects on infectious diseases.Overall,the influence of climate change on infectious diseases involves different mechanisms,it can be modulated by phenotypic acclimation and/or genotypic adaptation,it depends on the ecological context of the host-pathogen-vector interactions,and it can be modulated by impacts of other stressors.As a consequence of this complexity,non-linear responses of disease systems under climate change are to be expected.To improve predictions on climate change impacts on infectious disease,we suggest that more emphasis should be given to the integration of biomedical and ecological research for studying both the physiological and ecological mechanisms which mediate climate change impacts on disease,and to the development of harmonized methods and approaches to obtain more comparable results,as this would support the discrimination of case-specific versus

  7. Climate change & infectious diseases in India: implications for health care providers.

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    Dhara, V Ramana; Schramm, Paul J; Luber, George

    2013-12-01

    Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive health care strategies with their patients.

  8. Climate change and infectious diseases in the Arctic: establishment of a circumpolar working group

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    Alan J. Parkinson

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The Arctic, even more so than other parts of the world, has warmed substantially over the past few decades. Temperature and humidity influence the rate of development, survival and reproduction of pathogens and thus the incidence and prevalence of many infectious diseases. Higher temperatures may also allow infected host species to survive winters in larger numbers, increase the population size and expand their habitat range. The impact of these changes on human disease in the Arctic has not been fully evaluated. There is concern that climate change may shift the geographic and temporal distribution of a range of infectious diseases. Many infectious diseases are climate sensitive, where their emergence in a region is dependent on climate-related ecological changes. Most are zoonotic diseases, and can be spread between humans and animals by arthropod vectors, water, soil, wild or domestic animals. Potentially climate-sensitive zoonotic pathogens of circumpolar concern include Brucella spp., Toxoplasma gondii, Trichinella spp., Clostridium botulinum, Francisella tularensis, Borrelia burgdorferi, Bacillus anthracis, Echinococcus spp., Leptospira spp., Giardia spp., Cryptosporida spp., Coxiella burnetti, rabies virus, West Nile virus, Hantaviruses, and tick-borne encephalitis viruses.

  9. Factors influencing the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases

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    Auda Fares

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The recognition of seasonal patterns in infectious disease occurrence dates back at least as far as the hippocratic era, but the mechanisms underlying these fluctuations remain poorly understood. Many classes of mechanistic hypotheses have been proposed to explain seasonality of various directly transmitted diseases, including at least the following; human activity, seasonal variability in human immune system function, seasonal variations in vitamin D levels, seasonality of melatonin, and pathogen infectivity. In this short paper will briefly discuss the role of these factors in the seasonal patterns of infectious diseases.

  10. Influence of diabetes and hyperglycaemia on infectious disease hospitalisation and outcome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benfield, Thomas; Jensen, J S; Nordestgaard, B G

    2007-01-01

    AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes mellitus is believed to increase susceptibility to infectious diseases. The effects of hyperglycaemia per se on infectious disease risk are unknown and the influence of diabetes on infectious disease outcome is controversial. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied 10,063 indi......AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Diabetes mellitus is believed to increase susceptibility to infectious diseases. The effects of hyperglycaemia per se on infectious disease risk are unknown and the influence of diabetes on infectious disease outcome is controversial. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We studied 10...... analysis. RESULTS: At baseline, 353 individuals reported having diabetes. During 71,509 person-years of follow-up, a total of 1,194 individuals were hospitalised because of an infection. The risk of pneumonia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.75, 95% CI 1.23-2.48), urinary tract infection (aHR 3.03, 95% CI 2.......04-4.49) and skin infection (aHR 2.43, 95% CI 1.49-3.95) was increased in subjects with diabetes compared with subjects without. Each 1 mmol/l increase in plasma glucose at baseline was associated with a 6-10% increased relative risk of pneumonia, urinary tract infection and skin infection after adjustment...

  11. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M.T.E.

    2015-01-01

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these. PMID:26295247

  12. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su-Mia Akin

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample’s prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

  13. Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

    2015-08-18

    There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

  14. [Climate changes and emerging diseases. What new infectious diseases and health problem can be expected?].

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    Stark, K; Niedrig, M; Biederbick, W; Merkert, H; Hacker, J

    2009-07-01

    Increasing temperatures, but also other climatic factors, will have an impact on human health. Apart from the direct consequences of extreme weather conditions (e.g., heat-related fatalities), indirect health consequences in the long-term are also of great importance. In addition to a likely increase in allergic diseases and additional complications in the course of cardiovascular and respiratory diseases, infectious diseases are of particular interest. In Germany, endemic pathogens, such as hantavirus (with its reservoir in small rodents), tick-borne pathogens (Borrelia burgdorferi, tick-borne encephalitis virus), and certain food- and water-borne pathogens, are of concern. Mild winters favor rodent populations and may result in hantavirus epidemics in the subsequent summer period. Statistical analyses show a significant association between temperature and campylobacter incidence in Germany. An outbreak of rodent-borne leptospirosis among strawberry harvesters enhanced by heavy rainfalls illustrates how weather conditions may influence disease occurrence. Pathogens that are non-endemic in Germany but are imported by humans, vectors, and reservoir animals pose an additional risk to the population. Increasing temperatures improve the conditions for establishment of new vectors and for autochthonous transmission of some pathogens (e.g., chikungunya, dengue, West Nile virus, malaria, or leishmaniasis). Climatic and ecologic conditions in Germany currently do not favor autochthonous outbreaks for most of these pathogens. However, if temperatures increase, as expected, such outbreaks will become more likely. Germany should enhance its research in public health activities in the field of climate change and infectious diseases.

  15. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

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    Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.

  16. Public apprehension of emerging infectious diseases: are changes afoot?

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    Joffe, Helene

    2011-07-01

    Using social representations theory this paper casts light on the pattern of content that characterises the public response to emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases (EID). The pattern is: distancing the disease from the self/ one's in-groups; blame of particular entities for the disease's origin and/or spread; and stigmatisation of those who have contracted it and/or who are represented as having intensified its spread. This pattern is not unique to EID but extends to many risks, making EID fruitful events for understanding public apprehension of potential dangers. This process may be driven by worry, fear and anxiety since when levels of these are low, as has arguably been the case with the 2009/10 "Swine Flu" pandemic, the pattern transforms. The distancing-blame-stigma pattern may also be transformed by growing reflexivity, a feature of late modern societies, as well as material features of the epidemic and "EID fatigue".

  17. Climate change and infectious diseases in Australia: future prospects, adaptation options, and research priorities.

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    Harley, David; Bi, Peng; Hall, Gillian; Swaminathan, Ashwin; Tong, Shilu; Williams, Craig

    2011-03-01

    Climate change will have significant and diverse impacts on human health. These impacts will include changes in infectious disease incidence. In this article, the authors review the current situation and potential future climate change impacts for respiratory, diarrheal, and vector-borne diseases in Australia. Based on this review, the authors suggest adaptive strategies within the health sector and also recommend future research priorities.

  18. Land-Use Change and Emerging Infectious Disease on an Island Continent

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    Rosemary A. McFarlane

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A more rigorous and nuanced understanding of land-use change (LUC as a driver of emerging infectious disease (EID is required. Here we examine post hunter-gatherer LUC as a driver of infectious disease in one biogeographical region with a compressed and documented history—continental Australia. We do this by examining land-use and native vegetation change (LUCC associations with infectious disease emergence identified through a systematic (1973–2010 and historical (1788–1973 review of infectious disease literature of humans and animals. We find that 22% (20 of the systematically reviewed EIDs are associated with LUCC, most frequently where natural landscapes have been removed or replaced with agriculture, plantations, livestock or urban development. Historical clustering of vector-borne, zoonotic and environmental disease emergence also follows major periods of extensive land clearing. These advanced stages of LUCC are accompanied by changes in the distribution and density of hosts and vectors, at varying scales and chronology. This review of infectious disease emergence in one continent provides valuable insight into the association between accelerated global LUC and concurrent accelerated infectious disease emergence.

  19. Clinical and pathogenesis interpretation of changes in the electrocardiogram in infectious diseases

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    Yu. P. Finogeev

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Analyzing the diagnostic value of clinical and electrocardiographic diagnosis of heart lesions in infectious diseases should be emphasized that obtained with the help of their information is a benchmark for assessing not only the functional state of the myocardium of these patients. Importantly, according to the clinical manifestations and electrocardiogram in infectious diseases can be detected miokardidistrofiyu, myocarditis, as well as all possible rhythm disturbances, myocardial infarction, etc. The basis of circulatory disorders is a common factor in central nervous system (brain as the most sensitive to the action of an infectious toxin. This, in turn, leads to dysfunction of the autonomic nervous system, since the latter is regulated by the cerebral cortex. Based on clinical experience revealed that approximately 15-20% of infectious patients during early convalescence, and especially of late convalescence there are various functional changes in the cardiovascular system, which at the height of the disease were not found. These changes include: painless myocardial ischemia, miokardidistrofiya, sick sinus syndrome, extrasystolic arrhythmia, early repolarization syndrome, a hyperfunction of the right atrium, incomplete block, right bundle branch block, etc.

  20. Global health impacts due to infectious diseases and climate change: A narrative review

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    Sameera Karnik

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available According to the World Health Organization (WHO, environment is explained in terms of human health, such as physical, chemical and biological factors that are external to a person and all the related behavioral changes that affect population health. Quality of life and health is generally affected by people’s interaction with the environment.The purpose of this narrative review was to address various global health impacts such as heat wave impact, impact of floods and droughts, impact of allergens and impact of air pollution. A major emphasis of this review was on climatic impact on a variety of infectious diseases, particularly the interplay between ‘global warming’ and its effects on transmission of infectious diseases across the world. An analysis of vector borne disease transmission, infectious disease transmission modeling, in the backdrop of global warming, the concept of ‘one health’ and the effects of rising sea levels, which are purported to be due to global warming, were some of the highlighted issues addressed in this review. Towards the end, attention was drawn towards the limitations of addressing vector disease transmission related insufficient studies particularly studies which conduct predictive modeling of infectious disease transmission, which were marred by lack of innovation.

  1. Environmental and social influences on emerging infectious diseases: past, present and future.

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    McMichael, A J

    2004-07-29

    During the processes of human population dispersal around the world over the past 50 000-100 000 years, along with associated cultural evolution and inter-population contact and conflict, there have been several major transitions in the relationships of Homo sapiens with the natural world, animate and inanimate. Each of these transitions has resulted in the emergence of new or unfamiliar infectious diseases. The three great historical transitions since the initial advent of agriculture and livestock herding, from ca. 10 000 years ago, occurred when: (i) early agrarian-based settlements enabled sylvatic enzootic microbes to make contact with Homo sapiens; (ii) early Eurasian civilizations (such as the Greek and Roman empires, China and south Asia) came into military and commercial contact, ca. 3000-2000 years ago, swapping their dominant infections; and (iii) European expansionism, over the past five centuries, caused the transoceanic spread of often lethal infectious diseases. This latter transition is best known in relation to the conquest of the Americas by Spanish conquistadores, when the inadvertent spread of measles, smallpox and influenza devastated the Amerindian populations.Today, we are living through the fourth of these great transitional periods. The contemporary spread and increased lability of various infectious diseases, new and old, reflect the combined and increasingly widespread impacts of demographic, environmental, behavioural, technological and other rapid changes in human ecology. Modern clinical medicine has, via blood transfusion, organ transplantation, and the use of hypodermic syringes, created new opportunities for microbes. These have contributed to the rising iatrogenic problems of hepatitis C, HIV/AIDS and several other viral infections. Meanwhile, the injudicious use of antibiotics has been a rare instance of human action actually increasing 'biodiversity'. Another aspect of this fourth transition is that modern hyper-hygienic living

  2. Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change

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    Jonathan E. Suk

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2 levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change.

  3. Changes in Circulating Procalcitonin Versus C-Reactive Protein in Predicting Evolution of Infectious Disease in Febrile, Critically Ill Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.H. Hoeboer (Sandra); A.B.J. Groeneveld (Johan)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractObjective:Although absolute values for C-reactive protein (CRP) and procalcitonin (PCT) are well known to predict sepsis in the critically ill, it remains unclear how changes in CRP and PCT compare in predicting evolution of: infectious disease, invasiveness and severity (e.g. developmen

  4. Polio eradication initiative in Africa: influence on other infectious disease surveillance development

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    Cochi Stephen

    2002-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The World Health Organization (WHO and partners are collaborating to eradicate poliomyelitis. To monitor progress, countries perform surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP. The WHO African Regional Office (WHO-AFRO and the U.S Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are also involved in strengthening infectious disease surveillance and response in Africa. We assessed whether polio-eradication initiative resources are used in the surveillance for and response to other infectious diseases in Africa. Methods During October 1999-March 2000, we developed and administered a survey questionnaire to at least one key informant from the 38 countries that regularly report on polio activities to WHO. The key informants included WHO-AFRO staff assigned to the countries and Ministry of Health personnel. Results We obtained responses from 32 (84% of the 38 countries. Thirty-one (97% of the 32 countries had designated surveillance officers for AFP surveillance, and 25 (78% used the AFP resources for the surveillance and response to other infectious diseases. In 28 (87% countries, AFP program staff combined detection for AFP and other infectious diseases. Fourteen countries (44% had used the AFP laboratory specimen transportation system to transport specimens to confirm other infectious disease outbreaks. The majority of the countries that performed AFP surveillance adequately (i.e., non polio AFP rate = 1/100,000 children aged Conclusions Despite concerns regarding the targeted nature of AFP surveillance, it is partially integrated into existing surveillance and response systems in multiple African countries. Resources provided for polio eradication should be used to improve surveillance for and response to other priority infectious diseases in Africa.

  5. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks

    OpenAIRE

    McMichael, Anthony J.

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental c...

  6. Genetic and infectious profiles influence cerebrospinal fluid IgG abnormality in Japanese multiple sclerosis patients.

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    Satoshi Yoshimura

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Abnormal intrathecal synthesis of IgG, reflected by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF oligoclonal IgG bands (OBs and increased IgG index, is much less frequently observed in Japanese multiple sclerosis (MS cohorts compared with Western cohorts. We aimed to clarify whether genetic and common infectious backgrounds influence CSF IgG abnormality in Japanese MS patients. METHODOLOGY: We analyzed HLA-DRB1 alleles, and IgG antibodies against Chlamydia pneumoniae, Helicobacter pylori, Epstein-Barr virus nuclear antigen (EBNA, and varicella zoster virus (VZV in 94 patients with MS and 367 unrelated healthy controls (HCs. We defined CSF IgG abnormality as the presence of CSF OBs and/or increased IgG index (>0.658. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: CSF IgG abnormality was found in 59 of 94 (62.8% MS patients. CSF IgG abnormality-positive patients had a significantly higher frequency of brain MRI lesions meeting the Barkhof criteria compared with abnormality-negative patients. Compared with HCs, CSF IgG abnormality-positive MS patients showed a significantly higher frequency of DRB1 1501, whereas CSF IgG abnormality-negative patients had a significantly higher frequency of DRB1 0405. CSF IgG abnormality-positive MS patients had a significantly higher frequency of anti-C. pneumoniae IgG antibodies compared with CSF IgG abnormality-negative MS patients, although there was no difference in the frequency of anti-C. pneumoniae IgG antibodies between HCs and total MS patients. Compared with HCs, anti-H. pylori IgG antibodies were detected significantly less frequently in the total MS patients, especially in CSF IgG abnormality-negative MS patients. The frequencies of antibodies against EBNA and VZV did not differ significantly among the groups. CONCLUSIONS: CSF IgG abnormality is associated with Western MS-like brain MRI features. DRB1 1501 and C. pneumoniae infection confer CSF IgG abnormality, while DRB1 0405 and H. pylori infection are positively and negatively

  7. Influence of ultrasonic adsorption lithotripsy by percutaneous nephroscope on inflammation mediators and stress hormones of patients with infectious renal calculi

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Dong Lu; Xiao-Lei Jiang; Ming-Hui Wu; Yun-Jun Wu; Qiang Yuan

    2016-01-01

    Objective:To investigate the influence of ultrasonic adsorption lithotripsy by percutaneous nephroscope on inflammation mediators and stress hormones of the patients with infectious renal calculi. Methods:A total of 62 patients with infectious renal calculi in our hospital from January 2014 to June 2015 were selected as the study object,and they were randomly divided into control group(pneumatic ballistic lithotripsy by percutaneous nephroscope group) 31 cases and observation group(ultrasonic adsorption lithotripsy by percutaneous nephroscope group) 31 cases,then the serum expression levels of inflammation mediators and stress hormones of two groups before the treatment and at 12 h-24 h and 48 h after the treatment were compared. Results:The serum expression levels of inflammation mediators and stress hormones of two groups before the treatment were compared,all P>0.05,and the serum expression levels of observation group at 12 h-24 h and 48 h after the treatment were significantly lower than those of control group,while the expression levels of two groups after the treatment were all significantly higher than those before the treatment,all P<0.05. Conclusions:The inflammation mediators and stress hormones of patients with infectious renal calculi who are treated with pneumatic ballistic lithotripsy by percutaneous nephroscope are relatively lower,and it shows that the trauma and bad stress for the body are better controlled, so its clinical application value are relatively higher.

  8. Factors influencing performance of internet-based biosurveillance systems used in epidemic intelligence for early detection of infectious diseases outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Barboza

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Internet-based biosurveillance systems have been developed to detect health threats using information available on the Internet, but system performance has not been assessed relative to end-user needs and perspectives. METHOD AND FINDINGS: Infectious disease events from the French Institute for Public Health Surveillance (InVS weekly international epidemiological bulletin published in 2010 were used to construct the gold-standard official dataset. Data from six biosurveillance systems were used to detect raw signals (infectious disease events from informal Internet sources: Argus, BioCaster, GPHIN, HealthMap, MedISys and ProMED-mail. Crude detection rates (C-DR, crude sensitivity rates (C-Se and intrinsic sensitivity rates (I-Se were calculated from multivariable regressions to evaluate the systems' performance (events detected compared to the gold-standard 472 raw signals (Internet disease reports related to the 86 events included in the gold-standard data set were retrieved from the six systems. 84 events were detected before their publication in the gold-standard. The type of sources utilised by the systems varied significantly (p<0001. I-Se varied significantly from 43% to 71% (p=0001 whereas other indicators were similar (C-DR: p=020; C-Se, p=013. I-Se was significantly associated with individual systems, types of system, languages, regions of occurrence, and types of infectious disease. Conversely, no statistical difference of C-DR was observed after adjustment for other variables. CONCLUSION: Although differences could result from a biosurveillance system's conceptual design, findings suggest that the combined expertise amongst systems enhances early detection performance for detection of infectious diseases. While all systems showed similar early detection performance, systems including human moderation were found to have a 53% higher I-Se (p=00001 after adjustment for other variables. Overall, the use of moderation, sources

  9. Get the news out loudly and quickly: the influence of the media on limiting emerging infectious disease outbreaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Mummert

    Full Text Available During outbreaks of infectious diseases with high morbidity and mortality, individuals closely follow media reports of the outbreak. Many will attempt to minimize contacts with other individuals in order to protect themselves from infection and possibly death. This process is called social distancing. Social distancing strategies include restricting socializing and travel, and using barrier protections. We use modeling to show that for short-term outbreaks, social distancing can have a large influence on reducing outbreak morbidity and mortality. In particular, public health agencies working together with the media can significantly reduce the severity of an outbreak by providing timely accounts of new infections and deaths. Our models show that the most effective strategy to reduce infections is to provide this information as early as possible, though providing it well into the course of the outbreak can still have a significant effect. However, our models for long-term outbreaks indicate that reporting historic infection data can result in more infections than with no reporting at all. We examine three types of media influence and we illustrate the media influence with a simulated outbreak of a generic emerging infectious disease in a small city. Social distancing can never be complete; however, for a spectrum of outbreaks, we show that leaving isolation (stopping applying social distancing measures for up to 4 hours each day has modest effect on the overall morbidity and mortality.

  10. Get the news out loudly and quickly: the influence of the media on limiting emerging infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mummert, Anna; Weiss, Howard

    2013-01-01

    During outbreaks of infectious diseases with high morbidity and mortality, individuals closely follow media reports of the outbreak. Many will attempt to minimize contacts with other individuals in order to protect themselves from infection and possibly death. This process is called social distancing. Social distancing strategies include restricting socializing and travel, and using barrier protections. We use modeling to show that for short-term outbreaks, social distancing can have a large influence on reducing outbreak morbidity and mortality. In particular, public health agencies working together with the media can significantly reduce the severity of an outbreak by providing timely accounts of new infections and deaths. Our models show that the most effective strategy to reduce infections is to provide this information as early as possible, though providing it well into the course of the outbreak can still have a significant effect. However, our models for long-term outbreaks indicate that reporting historic infection data can result in more infections than with no reporting at all. We examine three types of media influence and we illustrate the media influence with a simulated outbreak of a generic emerging infectious disease in a small city. Social distancing can never be complete; however, for a spectrum of outbreaks, we show that leaving isolation (stopping applying social distancing measures) for up to 4 hours each day has modest effect on the overall morbidity and mortality.

  11. Multi-criteria decision analysis tools for prioritising emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases associated with climate change in Canada.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Cox

    Full Text Available Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software 'M-MACBETH'. The tools were trialed on nine 'test' pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should

  12. Multi-criteria decision analysis tools for prioritising emerging or re-emerging infectious diseases associated with climate change in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Ruth; Sanchez, Javier; Revie, Crawford W

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change is known to result in the emergence or re-emergence of some infectious diseases. Reliable methods to identify the infectious diseases of humans and animals and that are most likely to be influenced by climate are therefore required. Since different priorities will affect the decision to address a particular pathogen threat, decision makers need a standardised method of prioritisation. Ranking methods and Multi-Criteria Decision approaches provide such a standardised method and were employed here to design two different pathogen prioritisation tools. The opinion of 64 experts was elicited to assess the importance of 40 criteria that could be used to prioritise emerging infectious diseases of humans and animals in Canada. A weight was calculated for each criterion according to the expert opinion. Attributes were defined for each criterion as a transparent and repeatable method of measurement. Two different Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis tools were tested, both of which used an additive aggregation approach. These were an Excel spreadsheet tool and a tool developed in software 'M-MACBETH'. The tools were trialed on nine 'test' pathogens. Two different methods of criteria weighting were compared, one using fixed weighting values, the other using probability distributions to account for uncertainty and variation in expert opinion. The ranking of the nine pathogens varied according to the weighting method that was used. In both tools, using both weighting methods, the diseases that tended to rank the highest were West Nile virus, Giardiasis and Chagas, while Coccidioidomycosis tended to rank the lowest. Both tools are a simple and user friendly approach to prioritising pathogens according to climate change by including explicit scoring of 40 criteria and incorporating weighting methods based on expert opinion. They provide a dynamic interactive method that can help to identify pathogens for which a full risk assessment should be pursued.

  13. How World War 1 changed global attitudes to war and infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, G Dennis

    2014-11-08

    World War 1 was a key transition point towards scientific medicine. Medical officers incorporated Louis Pasteur's discoveries into their understanding of microorganisms as the cause of infectious diseases, which were therefore susceptible to rational control and treatment measures even in the pre-antibiotic era. Typhoid vaccination led to the successful evasion of the disastrous epidemics of previous wars. The incidence of tetanus was probably decreased by giving millions of doses of horse antitoxin to wounded soldiers. Quinine treated but could not control malaria; its use required mass compulsion. Tuberculosis was not a great military problem during World War 1, although mortality in civilian populations increased substantially. Treatment of sexually transmitted infections remained a matter of aversive conditioning, with invasive antiseptics used in the absence of antibiotics. Pandemic influenza in 1918-19 killed more people than died during the entire war, showing how much remained beyond the capability of the scientists and doctors who fought infectious diseases during World War 1.

  14. Virulence change of infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus against rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss with viral molecular evolution

    OpenAIRE

    Mochizuki, Mamiko; Kim, Hyoung Jun; Kasai, Hisae; Nishizawa, Toyohiko; Yoshimizu, Mamoru

    2009-01-01

    Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is the causative agent of IHN, one of the most serious viral diseases of salmonid fish. A total of five major genogroups including JRt for Asian isolates were confirmed among worldwide isolates based on glycoprotein (G) gene nucleotide (nt) sequences. The present study revealed existence of new two lineages, JRt Shizuoka and JRt Nagano, in the genogroup JRt by addition of new isolates obtained in 2006. The maximum nt diversity of G gene within JR...

  15. Understanding Culture and Influencing Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-03-01

    sexes. 44 Democratic countries considered feministic tend to elect more women to political offices and government posts unless they have a large...his book Organization Change: Theory and Practice expands Gladwell’s ideas identifying areas a leader can leverage to assist with changing culture...Leading Across Cultures, 3rd Edition (Boston,MA: Nicholas Brealy Publishing, 2006), 28-29. 4 Gareth R. Jones, Organizational Theory , Design, and

  16. Enzymatic treatment of specimens before DNA extraction directly influences molecular detection of infectious agents.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Goldschmidt

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Biological samples, pharmaceuticals or food contain proteins, lipids, polymers, ammoniums and macromolecules that alter the detection of infectious agents by DNA amplification techniques (PCR. Moreover the targeted DNA has to be released from the complex cell walls and the compact nucleoprotein matrixes and cleared from potential inhibitors. The goal of the present work was to assess the efficiency of enzymatic pretreatments on infectious agents to make DNA available for further extraction and amplification. METHODS: Staphylococcus epidermidis, Streptococcus mitis, Propionibacterium acnes, Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Candida albicans, Aspergillus niger and Fusarium solani were mixed with an internal control virus and treated with: 1 proteinase K; 2 lyticase and 3 lyticase followed by proteinase K. DNAs was manually extracted using the QIAmp DNA Mini kit or the MagNA Pure Compact automate. DNA extraction yields and the inhibitors were assessed with a phocid Herpesvirus. Bacterial detection was performed using TaqMan real-time PCR and yeasts and filamentous Fungi with HRM (real-time PCR followed by high-resolution melting analysis. RESULTS: Viral DNA was released, extracted and detected using manual and automatic methods without pre enzymatic treatments. Either the manual or the automatic DNA extraction systems did not meet the sensitivity expectations if enzymatic treatments were not performed before: lyticase for Fungi and Proteinase K for Bacteria. The addition of lyticase and proteinase K did not improve results. For Fungi the detection after lyticase was higher than for Proteinase K, for which melting analysis did not allow fungal specification. DISCUSSION: Columns and magnetic beads allowed collecting DNA and separate PCR inhibitors. Detection rates cannot be related to DNA-avidity of beads or to elution but to the lack of proteolysis.

  17. Changing patterns of infectious keratitis : Overview of clinical and histopathologic features of keratitis due to acanthamoeba or atypical mycobacteria, and of infectious crystalline keratopathy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kinota Stanislaus

    1993-01-01

    Full Text Available Acanthamoeba keratitis, infectious crystalline keratopathy and atypical mycobacterial keratitis have recently emerged as important types of infectious keratitis. These corneal infections have been associated with contact lens wear and with corneal surgical procedures such as radial keratotomy and penetrating keratoplasty, and the clinical setting of each of these infections is important in alerting the clinician to the possible diagnosis. There have been improvements in rapid diagnostic techniques for such infections in the last several years. Treatment has also improved, but remains a difficult problem, especially for Acanthamoeba. An overview of recent developments in the clinical and histopathologic methods for diagnosis and treatment options of these three corneal infections is provided.

  18. [Globalization and infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirski, Tomasz; Bartoszcze, Michał; Bielawska-Drózd, Agata

    2011-01-01

    Globalization is a phenomenon characteristic of present times. It can be considered in various aspects: economic, environmental changes, demographic changes, as well as the development of new technologies. All these aspects of globalization have a definite influence on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. Economic aspects ofglobalization are mainly the trade development, including food trade, which has an impact on the spread of food-borne diseases. The environmental changes caused by intensive development of industry, as a result of globalization, which in turn affects human health. The demographic changes are mainly people migration between countries and rural and urban areas, which essentially favors the global spread of many infectious diseases. While technological advances prevents the spread of infections, for example through better access to information, it may also increase the risk, for example through to create opportunities to travel into more world regions, including the endemic regions for various diseases. The phenomenon ofglobalization is also closely associated with the threat of terrorism, including bioterrorism. It forces the governments of many countries to develop effective programs to protect and fight against this threat.

  19. [Biological factors influencing infectious diseases transmitted by invasive species of mosquitoes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boštíková, Vanda; Pasdiorová, Markéta; Marek, Jan; Prášil, Petr; Salavec, Miloslav; Sleha, Radek; Střtítecká, Hana; Blažek, Pavel; Hanovcová, Irena; Šošovičková, Renáta; Špliňo, Milan; Smetana, Jan; Chlíbek, Roman; Hytych, Václav; Kuča, Kamil; Boštík, Pavel

    2016-06-01

    Studies focused on arbovirus diseases transmitted by invasive species of mosquitoes have become increasingly significant in recent years, due to the fact that these vectors have successfully migrated to Europe and become established in the region. Mosquitoes, represented by more than 3 200 species, occur naturally worldwide, except in Antarctica. They feed on the blood of warm-blooded animals and by this route, they are capable of transmitting dangerous diseases. Some species can travel a distance of 10 km per night and can fly continuously for up to 4 hours at a speed of 1-2 km/h. Most species are active at night, in the evening or morning. It usually takes a mosquito female about 50 seconds to penetrate the skin of mammals and the subsequent blood meal usually takes about 2.5 minutes. Mosquitoes live for several weeks or months, depending on the environmental conditions. The VectorNet project is a European network of information exchange and sharing of data relating to the geographical distribution of arthropod vectors and transmission of infectious agents between human populations and animals. It aims at the development of strategic plans and vaccination policies which are the main tasks of this time, as well as the development and application of new disinfectants to control vector populations.

  20. THE INFLUENCES OF CHANGES IN TAX LEGISLATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MORAR IOAN DAN

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Taxation is a fairly important field in the relationship between taxpayers and tax authorities, especially given the frequent changes in specific legislation. Legislative changes affect the patrimonial position of the taxpayers, but also their behavior, therefore this phenomenon is important to advise those interested and also to analyze the changes resulting from changes in tax legislation. This paper aims to meaningfully present the latest legislative changes and to analyze their influences on taxpayers and on budget revenues from taxes subject to change. The research methodology is based on comparison and inference, based on previous analyzes for such studies on the tax system. In the literature there are known ways and methods of increasing the tax burden and, based on these variables, in the present paper we will highlight the particular influences on the taxpayer’s , loaded by weight imposed by the official distribution of the tax burden. The implications of legislative changes in tax matters should be sought in the innermost chord of taxpayers and also in the increasingly large and patched pockets of the modern state. In the first place, we will point out the implications on changing tax procedures, in terms of the workload for the taxpayer and the tax collectors. By accurately and relevantly analyzing the influences generated by such changes, the author aims to demonstrate the harmful influences of some changes in terms of discouraging investments and honest labor.

  1. The influence of age and genetics on natural resistance to experimentally induced feline infectious peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, Niels C; Liu, Hongwei; Gandolfi, Barbara; Lyons, Leslie A

    2014-11-15

    Naturally occurring feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) is usually fatal, giving the impression that immunity to the FIP virus (FIPV) is extremely poor. This impression may be incorrect, because not all cats experimentally exposed to FIPV develop FIP. There is also a belief that the incidence of FIP may be affected by a number of host, virus, and environmental cofactors. However, the contribution of these cofactors to immunity and disease incidence has not been determined. The present study followed 111 random-bred specific pathogen free (SPF) cats that were obtained from a single research breeding colony and experimentally infected with FIPV. The cats were from several studies conducted over the past 5 years, and as a result, some of them had prior exposure to feline enteric coronavirus (FECV) or avirulent FIPVs. The cats were housed under optimized conditions of nutrition, husbandry, and quarantine to eliminate most of the cofactors implicated in FIPV infection outcome and were uniformly challenge exposed to the same field strain of serotype 1 FIPV. Forty of the 111 (36%) cats survived their initial challenge exposure to a Type I cat-passaged field strains of FIPV. Six of these 40 survivors succumbed to FIP to a second or third challenge exposure, suggesting that immunity was not always sustained. Exposure to non-FIP-inducing feline coronaviruses prior to challenge with virulent FIPV did not significantly affect FIP incidence but did accelerate the disease course in some cats. There were no significant differences in FIP incidence between males and females, but resistance increased significantly between 6 months and 1 or more years of age. Genetic testing was done on 107 of the 111 infected cats. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) segregated the 107 cats into three distinct families based primarily on a common sire(s), and resistant and susceptible cats were equally distributed within each family. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on 73 cats that died of FIP

  2. Multi-taxa integrated landscape genetics for zoonotic infectious diseases: deciphering variables influencing disease emergence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leo, Sarah S T; Gonzalez, Andrew; Millien, Virginie

    2016-05-01

    Zoonotic disease transmission systems involve sets of species interacting with each other and their environment. This complexity impedes development of disease monitoring and control programs that require reliable identification of spatial and biotic variables and mechanisms facilitating disease emergence. To overcome this difficulty, we propose a framework that simultaneously examines all species involved in disease emergence by integrating concepts and methods from population genetics, landscape ecology, and spatial statistics. Multi-taxa integrated landscape genetics (MTILG) can reveal how interspecific interactions and landscape variables influence disease emergence patterns. We test the potential of our MTILG-based framework by modelling the emergence of a disease system across multiple species dispersal, interspecific interaction, and landscape scenarios. Our simulations showed that both interspecific-dependent dispersal patterns and landscape characteristics significantly influenced disease spread. Using our framework, we were able to detect statistically similar inter-population genetic differences and highly correlated spatial genetic patterns that imply species-dependent dispersal. Additionally, species that were assigned coupled-dispersal patterns were affected to the same degree by similar landscape variables. This study underlines the importance of an integrated approach to investigating emergence of disease systems. MTILG is a robust approach for such studies and can identify potential avenues for targeted disease management strategies.

  3. Attitude change: persuasion and social influence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, W

    2000-01-01

    This chapter reviews empirical and theoretical developments in research on social influence and message-based persuasion. The review emphasizes research published during the period from 1996-1998. Across these literatures, three central motives have been identified that generate attitude change and resistance. These involve concerns with the self, with others and the rewards/punishments they can provide, and with a valid understanding of reality. The motives have implications for information processing and for attitude change in public and private contexts. Motives in persuasion also have been investigated in research on attitude functions and cognitive dissonance theory. In addition, the chapter reviews the relatively unique aspects of each literature: In persuasion, it considers the cognitive and affective mechanisms underlying attitude change, especially dual-mode processing models, recipients' affective reactions, and biased processing. In social influence, the chapter considers how attitudes are embedded in social relations, including social identity theory and majority/minority group influence.

  4. Social structure, infectious diseases, disasters, secularism, and cultural change in America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossmann, Igor; Varnum, Michael E W

    2015-03-01

    Why do cultures change? The present work examined cultural change in eight cultural-level markers, or correlates, of individualism in the United States, all of which increased over the course of the 20th century: frequency of individualist themes in books, preference for uniqueness in baby naming, frequency of single-child relative to multichild families, frequency of single-generation relative to multigeneration households, percentage of adults and percentage of older adults living alone, small family size, and divorce rates (relative to marriage rates). We tested five key hypotheses regarding cultural change in individualism-collectivism. As predicted by previous theories, changes in socioeconomic structure, pathogen prevalence, and secularism accompanied changes in individualism averaged across all measures. The relationship with changes in individualism was less robust for urbanization. Contrary to previous theories, changes in individualism were positively (as opposed to negatively) related to the frequency of disasters. Time-lagged analyses suggested that only socioeconomic structure had a robust effect on individualism; changes in socioeconomic structure preceded changes in individualism. Implications for anthropology, psychology, and sociology are discussed.

  5. Unusual climatic conditions and infectious diseases: observations made by Hippocrates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falagas, Matthew E; Bliziotis, Ioannis A; Kosmidis, John; Daikos, George K

    2010-12-01

    About 2500 years ago, Hippocrates made noteworthy observations about the influence of climate on public health. He believed that people living in cities with different climate may suffer from different diseases. Hippocrates also observed that abrupt climatic changes or unusual weather conditions affect public health, especially the incidence and severity of various infectious diseases, including gastrointestinal infections, tuberculosis, and central nervous system infections. We believe that Hippocrates' scientific observations are great early historic examples that stress to modern infectious diseases researchers and clinicians the need to study intensively the effect of the occurring global climate changes to infectious diseases in order to help in the prevention of possible epidemics of infections.

  6. The use of expert opinion to assess the risk of emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases in Canada associated with climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Cox

    Full Text Available Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations.

  7. The use of expert opinion to assess the risk of emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases in Canada associated with climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, Ruth; Revie, Crawford W; Sanchez, Javier

    2012-01-01

    Global climate change is predicted to lead to an increase in infectious disease outbreaks. Reliable surveillance for diseases that are most likely to emerge is required, and given limited resources, policy decision makers need rational methods with which to prioritise pathogen threats. Here expert opinion was collected to determine what criteria could be used to prioritise diseases according to the likelihood of emergence in response to climate change and according to their impact. We identified a total of 40 criteria that might be used for this purpose in the Canadian context. The opinion of 64 experts from academic, government and independent backgrounds was collected to determine the importance of the criteria. A weight was calculated for each criterion based on the expert opinion. The five that were considered most influential on disease emergence or impact were: potential economic impact, severity of disease in the general human population, human case fatality rate, the type of climate that the pathogen can tolerate and the current climatic conditions in Canada. There was effective consensus about the influence of some criteria among participants, while for others there was considerable variation. The specific climate criteria that were most likely to influence disease emergence were: an annual increase in temperature, an increase in summer temperature, an increase in summer precipitation and to a lesser extent an increase in winter temperature. These climate variables were considered to be most influential on vector-borne diseases and on food and water-borne diseases. Opinion about the influence of climate on air-borne diseases and diseases spread by direct/indirect contact were more variable. The impact of emerging diseases on the human population was deemed more important than the impact on animal populations.

  8. Weather, water quality and infectious gastrointestinal illness in two Inuit communities in Nunatsiavut, Canada: potential implications for climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harper, Sherilee L; Edge, Victoria L; Schuster-Wallace, Corinne J; Berke, Olaf; McEwen, Scott A

    2011-03-01

    Climate change is expected to cause changes in precipitation quantity, intensity, frequency and duration, which will subsequently alter environmental conditions and might increase the risk of waterborne disease. The objective of this study was to describe the seasonality of and explore associations between weather, water quality and occurrence of infectious gastrointestinal illnesses (IGI) in two communities in Nunatsiavut, Canada. Weather data were obtained from meteorological stations in Nain (2005-2008) and Rigolet (2008). Free-chlorine residual levels in drinking water were extracted from municipal records (2005-2008). Raw surface water was tested weekly for total coliform and E. coli counts. Daily counts of IGI-related clinic visits were obtained from health clinic registries (2005-2008). Analysis of weather and health variables included seasonal-trend decomposition procedures based on Loess. Multivariable zero-inflated Poisson regression was used to examine potential associations between weather events (considering 0-4 week lag periods) and IGI-related clinic visits. In Nain, water volume input (rainfall + snowmelt) peaked in spring and summer and was positively associated with levels of raw water bacteriological variables. The number of IGI-related clinic visits peaked in the summer and fall months. Significant positive associations were observed between high levels of water volume input 2 and 4 weeks prior, and IGI-related clinic visits (P climate change on regional Inuit human and environmental health.

  9. Enterotypes influence temporal changes in gut microbiota

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roager, Henrik Munch; Licht, Tine Rask; Kellebjerg Poulsen, Sanne

    The human gut microbiota plays an important role for the health of the host. The question is whether we can modulate the gut microbiota by changing diet. During a 6-month, randomised, controlled dietary intervention, the effect of a moderate diet shift from Average Danish Diet to New Nordic Diet...... on the gut microbiota in humans (n=62) was investigated. Quantitative PCR analysis showed that the microbiota did not change significantly by the intervention. Nevertheless, by stratifying subjects into two enterotypes, distinguished by the Prevotella/Bacteroides ratio (P/B), we were able to detect...... significant changes in the gut microbiota composition resulting from the interventions. Subjects with a high-P/B experienced more pronounced changes in the gut microbiota composition than subjects with a low-P/B. The study is the first to indicate that enterotypes influence microbiota response to a dietary...

  10. Infectious Arthritis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Most kinds of arthritis cause pain and swelling in your joints. Joints are places where two bones meet, such as your elbow or knee. Infectious arthritis is an infection in the joint. The infection ...

  11. Infectious Aortitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, F Daniel; Jamison, Bruce M; Hibbert, Benjamin

    2016-09-28

    Aortitis is broadly divided into infectious and non-infectious etiologies, each with distinct treatment implications. We present the case of a patient who sustained a type A aortic dissection during urgent coronary angiography for acute coronary syndrome. Clinical findings and events during the procedure raised suspicion for an underlying vascular disorder; however, the diagnosis of staphylococcal aortitis was not made until pathological examination of resected tissue. Clues to the diagnosis of infectious aortitis noted throughout the patient's clinical course are detailed as are potential consequences of diagnostic delays and treatment decisions, underscoring the difficulties in recognizing and managing the condition. In addition, we describe a previously unreported complication of cardiac catheterization in the setting of an infectious aortopathy.

  12. Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... people worldwide than any other single cause. Infectious diseases are caused by germs. Germs are tiny living things that are found everywhere - in air, soil and water. You can get infected by touching, eating, drinking ...

  13. Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

  14. How does climate change influence Arctic mercury?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stern, Gary A; Macdonald, Robie W; Outridge, Peter M; Wilson, Simon; Chételat, John; Cole, Amanda; Hintelmann, Holger; Loseto, Lisa L; Steffen, Alexandra; Wang, Feiyue; Zdanowicz, Christian

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that climate change is already having significant impacts on many aspects of transport pathways, speciation and cycling of mercury within Arctic ecosystems. For example, the extensive loss of sea-ice in the Arctic Ocean and the concurrent shift from greater proportions of perennial to annual types have been shown to promote changes in primary productivity, shift foodweb structures, alter mercury methylation and demethylation rates, and influence mercury distribution and transport across the ocean-sea-ice-atmosphere interface (bottom-up processes). In addition, changes in animal social behavior associated with changing sea-ice regimes can affect dietary exposure to mercury (top-down processes). In this review, we address these and other possible ramifications of climate variability on mercury cycling, processes and exposure by applying recent literature to the following nine questions; 1) What impact has climate change had on Arctic physical characteristics and processes? 2) How do rising temperatures affect atmospheric mercury chemistry? 3) Will a decrease in sea-ice coverage have an impact on the amount of atmospheric mercury deposited to or emitted from the Arctic Ocean, and if so, how? 4) Does climate affect air-surface mercury flux, and riverine mercury fluxes, in Arctic freshwater and terrestrial systems, and if so, how? 5) How does climate change affect mercury methylation/demethylation in different compartments in the Arctic Ocean and freshwater systems? 6) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of freshwater food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of mercury? 7) How will climate change alter the structure and dynamics of marine food webs, and thereby affect the bioaccumulation of marine mercury? 8) What are the likely mercury emissions from melting glaciers and thawing permafrost under climate change scenarios? and 9) What can be learned from current mass balance inventories of mercury in the Arctic? The

  15. Evolution in action: climate change, biodiversity dynamics and emerging infectious disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoberg, Eric P; Brooks, Daniel R

    2015-04-01

    Climatological variation and ecological perturbation have been pervasive drivers of faunal assembly, structure and diversification for parasites and pathogens through recurrent events of geographical and host colonization at varying spatial and temporal scales of Earth history. Episodic shifts in climate and environmental settings, in conjunction with ecological mechanisms and host switching, are often critical determinants of parasite diversification, a view counter to more than a century of coevolutionary thinking about the nature of complex host-parasite assemblages. Parasites are resource specialists with restricted host ranges, yet shifts onto relatively unrelated hosts are common during phylogenetic diversification of parasite lineages and directly observable in real time. The emerging Stockholm Paradigm resolves this paradox: Ecological Fitting (EF)--phenotypic flexibility and phylogenetic conservatism in traits related to resource use, most notably host preference--provides many opportunities for rapid host switching in changing environments, without the evolution of novel host-utilization capabilities. Host shifts via EF fuel the expansion phase of the Oscillation Hypothesis of host range and speciation and, more generally, the generation of novel combinations of interacting species within the Geographic Mosaic Theory of Coevolution. In synergy, an environmental dynamic of Taxon Pulses establishes an episodic context for host and geographical colonization.

  16. Modifications of the 3 '-UTR stem-loop of infectious bursal disease virus are allowed without influencing replication or virulence

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boot, H.J.; Pritz-Verschuren, S.B.E.

    2004-01-01

    Many questions regarding the initiation of replication and translation of the segmented, double-stranded RNA genome of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV) remain to be solved. Computer analysis shows that the non-polyadenylated extreme 3'-untranslated regions (UTRs) of the coding strand of both g

  17. Influence of degenerative changes of intervertebral disc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WANG Yi

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available 【Abstract】Objective: To investigate the material properties of normal and degenerated intervertebral discs (IVDs and examine the effect of degenerative changes on IVD pathology. Methods: A computer-based online search was under-taken to identify English articles about material properties of IVDs published from January 1950 to 2011 in PubMed database. The retrieved keywords included material properties, intervertebral disc and degeneration. Based on the principles of reliability, advancement and efficiency, the obtained data were primarily examined, and the original source was retrieved to read the full-text. Repetitive articles were excluded. The data of material properties of normal and degenerated IVDs were summarized and analyzed by meta-analysis. Results: The data of Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, shear modulus, hydraulic permeability and intradiscal pres-sure of normal and degenerated IVDs were obtained. Com-pared with normal IVDs, the Young's modulus and shear modulus of annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus were higher in degenerated IVDs, the Poisson's ratio was lower while the hydraulic permeability and intradiscal pressure were higher. Besides, the degeneration-related alterations in IVDs had an influence both on itself and other spinal structures, leading to diseases such as bulging disc, discogenic pain and spinal stenosis. Meanwhile, the heavy mechanical loading and injury indicated important pathways to IVD degeneration. Conclusions: To a certain extent, the degenerative changes of IVD influence its material properties. And the degeneration-related alterations of composition can cause structural failure of IVDs, leading to injuries and diseases. Key words: Intervertebral disc; Mechanical phenomena; Degeneration; Elastic modulus; Permeability; Pathology

  18. Elucidation of the avian nucleolar proteome by quantitative proteomics using SILAC and changes in cells infected with the coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmott, Edward; Smith, Catriona; Emmett, Stevan R; Dove, Brian K; Hiscox, Julian A

    2010-10-01

    The nucleolus is a dynamic subnuclear compartment involved in ribosome subunit biogenesis, regulation of cell stress and modulation of cellular growth and the cell cycle, among other functions. The nucleolus is composed of complex protein/protein and protein/RNA interactions. It is a target of virus infection with many viral proteins being shown to localize to the nucleolus during infection. Perturbations to the structure of the nucleolus and its proteome have been predicted to play a role in both cellular and infectious disease. Stable isotope labeling with amino acids in cell culture coupled to LC-MS/MS with bioinformatic analysis using Ingenuity Pathway Analysis was used to investigate whether the nucleolar proteome altered in virus-infected cells. In this study, the avian nucleolar proteome was defined in the absence and presence of virus, in this case the positive strand RNA virus, avian coronavirus infectious bronchitis virus. Data sets, potential protein changes and the functional consequences of virus infection were validated using independent assays. These demonstrated that specific rather than generic changes occurred in the nucleolar proteome in infectious bronchitis virus-infected cells.

  19. A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Climatic Drivers of Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Su-Mia Akin

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is considered to be a significant influence for infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Climatic and non-climatic developments act together resulting in current and future infectious disease risk. This study uses a survey to explore Dutch expert perspectives on climate change induced infectious disease risk. The results show that the experts consider temperature change, precipitation change, humidity change, and climate change induced habitat change to be relatively important for water-related infectious disease risk, vector-borne disease risk excluding zoonoses, and the risk of zoonoses. The climatic drivers are seen as relatively less important for food-related infectious disease risk. The experts rate many non-climatic drivers to be highly important for infectious disease risk. Comparatively, the majority of the non-climatic drivers assessed are seen as more important than climate change drivers. The degree of uncertainty in the future development of climatic drivers is viewed as moderate to high, and for non-climatic drivers mostly as moderate. An analysis of subsamples based on professional backgrounds reveals differences in experts’ opinions for e.g., socio-cultural drivers, and similarities. Diversity and consensus amongst expert perspectives on climate change and infectious diseases can have implications for policy. Further research to uncover and compare prevailing perspectives is necessary.

  20. Adherence to recommendations by infectious disease consultants and its influence on outcomes of intravenous antibiotic-treated hospitalized patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fariñas María-Carmen

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Consultation to infectious diseases specialists (ID, although not always performed by treating physicians, is part of hospital’s daily practice. This study analyses adherence by treating physicians to written ID recommendations (inserted in clinical records and its effect on outcome in hospitalized antibiotic-treated patients in a tertiary hospital in Spain. Methods A prospective, randomized, one-year study was performed. Patients receiving intravenous antimicrobial therapy prescribed by treating physicians for 3 days were identified and randomised to intervention (insertion of written ID recommendations in clinical records or non-intervention. Appropriateness of empirical treatments (by treating physicians was classified as adequate, inadequate or unnecessary. In the intervention group, adherence to recommendations was classified as complete, partial or non-adherence. Results A total of 1173 patients were included, 602 in the non-intervention and 571 in the intervention group [199 (34.9% showing complete adherence, 141 (24.7% partial adherence and 231 (40.5% non-adherence to recommendations]. In the multivariate analysis for adherence (R2 Cox=0.065, p=0.009, non-adherence was associated with prolonged antibiotic prophylaxis (p=0.004; OR=0.37, 95%CI=0.19-0.72. In the multivariate analysis for clinical failure (R2 Cox=0.126, p Conclusions Adherence to ID recommendations by treating physicians was associated with favorable outcome, in turn associated with shortened length of hospitalization. This may have important health–economic benefits and stimulates further investigation. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN83234896. http://www.controlled-trials.com/isrctn/sample_documentation.asp

  1. Enterotypes influence temporal changes in gut microbiota

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roager, Henrik Munch; Licht, Tine Rask; Kellebjerg Poulsen, Sanne

    The human gut microbiota plays an important role for human health. The question is whether we can modulate the gut microbiota by changing diet. During a 6-month, randomised, controlled dietary intervention, the effect of consuming a diet following the New Nordic Diet recommendations (NND......) as opposed to Average Danish Diet (ADD) on the gut microbiota in humans (n=62) was investigated. Quantitative PCR analysis showed that the microbiota did not change significantly by the intervention. Nevertheless, by stratifying subjects into two enterotypes, distinguished by the Prevotella/Bacteroides ratio...... (P/B), we were able to detect significant changes in the gut microbiota composition resulting from the interventions. Subjects with a high-P/B experienced more pronounced changes in the gut microbiota composition than subjects with a low-P/B. The study is the first to indicate that enterotypes...

  2. The Phonological Influence on Phonetic Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fruehwald, Josef

    2013-01-01

    This dissertation addresses the broad question about how phonology and phonetics are interrelated, specifically how phonetic language changes, which gradually alter the phonetics of speech sounds, affect the phonological system of the language, and vice versa. Some questions I address are: (i) What aspects of speakers' knowledge of their language…

  3. Are Rorschach Responses Influenced by Society's Change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ames, Louise Bates

    1975-01-01

    Based on the general belief that people "normally" see male figures on Rorschach Card III and females on Card VII; to see the opposite, according to some, would indicate a confusing of sex roles. This study makes two comparisons: age and time changes of individual responses to these cards in different decades. (DEP)

  4. Changing Practices: Influences on Classroom Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tierney, Robin D.

    2006-01-01

    The pedagogical potential of classroom assessment to support student learning has increasingly been evidenced in research over the past decade. Constructive classroom assessment has been championed by assessment specialists, and endorsed by professional organizations. In practice, however, the process of changing classroom assessment from its…

  5. Spouse Influence in Army Organizational Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Chutima Hanpachern, George A. Morgan, and Orlando V. Griego , "An Extension of the Theory of Margin: A Framework for Assessing Readiness for...study, Hanpachern, Morgan and Griego make the next significant stride in understanding MIL by constructing a simpler scale than Stevenson. Their study... Griego , "An Extension of the Theory of Margin: A Framework for Assessing Readiness for Organizational Change," 349. 71 Mady Wechsler Segal, "The Nature

  6. NOx Change over China and Its Influences

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIU Yu(刘煜); I. S. A. ISAKSEN; J. K. SUNDET; HE Jinhai(何金海); YAN Peng(颜鹏)

    2004-01-01

    A 3-D chemical transport model (OSLO CTM2) is used to investigate the impact of the increase of NOx emission over China.The model is capable to reproduce basically the seasonal variation of surface NOx and ozone over eastern China.NOx emission data and observations reveal that NOx over easternChina increases quite quickly with the economic development of China.Model results indicate that NOxconcentration over eastern China increasingly rises with the increase of NOx emission over China,and accelerates to increase in winter.When the NOx emission increases from 1995 to its double,the ratio of NO2/NOx abruptly drops in winter over northern China.Ozone at the surface decreases in winter with the continual enhancement of the NOx level over eastern China,but increases over southern China in summertime.It is noticeable that peak ozone over northern China increases in summer although mean ozone changes little.In summer,ozone increases in the free troposphere dominantly below 500 hPa.Moreover,the increases of total ozone over eastern China are proportional to the increases of NOx emission.In a word,the model results suggest that the relationship between NOx and ozone at the surface would change with NOx increase.

  7. Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, van M.T.H.; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater-influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration

  8. Climate change impact on a groundwater-influenced hillslope ecosystem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brolsma, R.J.; Vliet, M.T.H. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of climate change on a groundwater‐influenced ecosystem on a hill slope consisting of two vegetation types, one adapted to wet and one adapted to dry soil conditions. The individual effects of changes in precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration

  9. Open and closed models of intensive care unit have different influences on infectious complications in a tertiary care center: A retrospective data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Kersh, Karim; Guardiola, Juan; Cavallazzi, Rodrigo; Wiemken, Timothy L; Roman, Jesse; Saad, Mohamed

    2016-12-01

    Infectious complications in the intensive care unit (ICU) are associated with higher morbidity, mortality, and increased health care use. Here, we report the results of implementing 2 different models (open vs closed) on infectious complications in the ICU. The closed ICU model was associated with 52% reduction in ventilator-associated pneumonia rate (P = .038) and 25% reduction in central line-associated bloodstream infection rate (P = .631). We speculate that a closed ICU model allows clinical leadership centralization that further facilitates standardized care delivery that translates into fewer infectious complications.

  10. Infectious Disease, Endangerment, and Extinction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross D. E. MacPhee

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Infectious disease, especially virulent infectious disease, is commonly regarded as a cause of fluctuation or decline in biological populations. However, it is not generally considered as a primary factor in causing the actual endangerment or extinction of species. We review here the known historical examples in which disease has, or has been assumed to have had, a major deleterious impact on animal species, including extinction, and highlight some recent cases in which disease is the chief suspect in causing the outright endangerment of particular species. We conclude that the role of disease in historical extinctions at the population or species level may have been underestimated. Recent methodological breakthroughs may lead to a better understanding of the past and present roles of infectious disease in influencing population fitness and other parameters.

  11. Narrative Style Influences Citation Frequency in Climate Change Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillier, Ann; Kelly, Ryan P; Klinger, Terrie

    2016-01-01

    Peer-reviewed publications focusing on climate change are growing exponentially with the consequence that the uptake and influence of individual papers varies greatly. Here, we derive metrics of narrativity from psychology and literary theory, and use these metrics to test the hypothesis that more narrative climate change writing is more likely to be influential, using citation frequency as a proxy for influence. From a sample of 732 scientific abstracts drawn from the climate change literature, we find that articles with more narrative abstracts are cited more often. This effect is closely associated with journal identity: higher-impact journals tend to feature more narrative articles, and these articles tend to be cited more often. These results suggest that writing in a more narrative style increases the uptake and influence of articles in climate literature, and perhaps in scientific literature more broadly.

  12. Communicating change: the influence of information, communication, uncertainty and cynicism on readiness for change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elving, W.J.L.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: In previous studies we have shown the influence of information and communication on the success of organizational change. We extended that research with the inclusion of cynical responses to top management about the change, change fatigue and turnover intentions. Methodology: This study was

  13. Equine Infectious Anemia

    OpenAIRE

    Hoopes, Karl H.

    2017-01-01

    This fact sheet gives information on equine infectious anemia, a blood-borne infectious viral disease of horses, donkeys, and mules. It describes transmission, clinical disease, diagnosis and control.

  14. Factors of influence and changes in the tourism consumer behaviour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fratu, D.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Consumer behaviour is a very important aspect to be studied in every marketing activity, therefore in tourism marketing as well. Defining and identifying the factors that influence consumers help in understanding individual needs and buying processes in their whole complexity. Consumers have changed their behaviour over the last two years due to the instability of the economic environment. The author describes in this article the factors which influence consumer behaviour and also presents how it has changed over the past two years.

  15. Modeling of preventive maintenance changes influence upon flight safety indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    А.В. Гончаренко

    2004-03-01

    Full Text Available  It is considered a simplified model of connection between the catastrophic events flow frequency and both preventive maintenance changes periodicity and diagnosis depth of aviation equipment. It is deduced specific formulas for computing the changes and diagnostics parameters influence upon the values of both the catastrophic events flow frequency and technical-economical control factor criterion of flight safety levels.

  16. Influencing behavioral change by customer engagement amongst youth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh S

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Sonal SinghMarketing and Management Department, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales, AustraliaAbstract: It is widely accepted that many social and health problems have underlying behavioral causes. Because these problems are rooted in human behavior, solutions to deal with them also lie in human behavior. This paper examines ways of integrating customer engagement in social programs to influence and initiate behavior change effectively with a special focus on youth. This work followed a theoretical deduction by use of a literature review. Social marketing places emphasis on behavior change, and one of the key challenges for social marketers is to ensure a perceived value for customers in taking up and maintaining positive behavior. If perceptions, beliefs, attitudes, and values influence behavior, then the central focus should be on the youth. Integrating youth is a prerequisite for effective social marketing programs and ultimately behavioral change. This approach will pave the way for effective brand positioning and brand loyalty in social marketing which has been lacking and requires more attention from researchers and policymakers. This paper outlines theoretical developments in social marketing that will increase the effectiveness of social marketing programs overall. Existing social marketing literature typically focuses on social marketing interventions and behavioral change. This paper uses customer engagement within a social marketing context so that social marketing programs are perceived as brands to which youth can relate.Keywords: social marketing, customer engagement, behavioral influence, change, youth

  17. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  18. Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, T. A.; Baldwin, M.; Barnes, E. A.; Caballero, R.; Garfinkel, C. I.; Hwang, Y.-T.; Li, C.; O'Gorman, P. A.; Rivière, G.; Simpson, I. R.; Voigt, A.

    2016-09-01

    Extratropical cyclones are storm systems that are observed to travel preferentially within confined regions known as storm tracks. They contribute to precipitation, wind and temperature extremes in mid-latitudes. Cyclones tend to form where surface temperature gradients are large, and the jet stream influences their speed and direction of travel. Storm tracks shape the global climate through transport of energy and momentum. The intensity and location of storm tracks varies seasonally, and in response to other natural variations, such as changes in tropical sea surface temperature. A hierarchy of numerical models of the atmosphere-ocean system -- from highly idealized to comprehensive -- has been used to study and predict responses of storm tracks to anthropogenic climate change. The future position and intensity of storm tracks depend on processes that alter temperature gradients. However, different processes can have opposing influences on temperature gradients, which leads to a tug of war on storm track responses and makes future projections more difficult. For example, as climate warms, surface shortwave cloud radiative changes increase the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient, but at the same time, longwave cloud radiative changes reduce this gradient. Future progress depends on understanding and accurately quantifying the relative influence of such processes on the storm tracks.

  19. Influence of SST biases on future climate change projections

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ashfaq, Moetasim [Stanford University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Purdue University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Skinner, Christopher B. [Stanford University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Purdue University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Diffenbaugh, Noah S. [Stanford University, Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Stanford, CA (United States); Purdue University, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, West Lafayette, IN (United States); Stanford University, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford, CA (United States)

    2011-04-15

    We use a quantile-based bias correction technique and a multi-member ensemble of the atmospheric component of NCAR CCSM3 (CAM3) simulations to investigate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) biases on future climate change projections. The simulations, which cover 1977-1999 in the historical period and 2077-2099 in the future (A1B) period, use the CCSM3-generated SSTs as prescribed boundary conditions. Bias correction is applied to the monthly time-series of SSTs so that the simulated changes in SST mean and variability are preserved. Our comparison of CAM3 simulations with and without SST correction shows that the SST biases affect the precipitation distribution in CAM3 over many regions by introducing errors in atmospheric moisture content and upper-level (lower-level) divergence (convergence). Also, bias correction leads to significantly different precipitation and surface temperature changes over many oceanic and terrestrial regions (predominantly in the tropics) in response to the future anthropogenic increases in greenhouse forcing. The differences in the precipitation response from SST bias correction occur both in the mean and the percent change, and are independent of the ocean-atmosphere coupling. Many of these differences are comparable to or larger than the spread of future precipitation changes across the CMIP3 ensemble. Such biases can affect the simulated terrestrial feedbacks and thermohaline circulations in coupled climate model integrations through changes in the hydrological cycle and ocean salinity. Moreover, biases in CCSM3-generated SSTs are generally similar to the biases in CMIP3 ensemble mean SSTs, suggesting that other GCMs may display a similar sensitivity of projected climate change to SST errors. These results help to quantify the influence of climate model biases on the simulated climate change, and therefore should inform the effort to further develop approaches for reliable climate change projection. (orig.)

  20. The neural basis of social influence and attitude change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Izuma, Keise

    2013-06-01

    Human attitudes and preferences are susceptible to social influence. Recent social neuroscience studies, using theories and experimental paradigms from social psychology, have begun to elucidate the neural mechanisms underlying how others influence our attitudes through processes such as social conformity, cognitive inconsistency and persuasion. The currently available evidence highlights the role of the posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) in social conformity and cognitive inconsistency, which represents the discrepancy between one's own and another person's opinion, or, more broadly, between currently inconsistent and ideally consistent states. Research on persuasion has revealed that people's susceptibility to persuasive messages is related to activation in a nearby but more anterior part of the medial frontal cortex. Future progress in this field will depend upon the ability of researchers to dissociate underlying motivations for attitude change in different paradigms, and to utilize neuroimaging methods to advance social psychological theories of social influence.

  1. INFLUENCE OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON WATER RESOURCES IN MOLDOVA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Violeta Ivanov

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims to analyze the current state of affairs with water resources in Moldova, the challenges it faces for its national human and economic development, having in mind that the water resources are quite limited in Moldova, which encounters pollution, degradation influenced by climate change and unwise human activity to their biodiversity and ecosystems, availability and accessibility. It also attempts to highlight the relationship between climate change and water resources in Moldova, which has adverse effects on both environment and people’s health, and raise significant hurdles to the international, regional and sectoral development.

  2. E-commerce influence on changes in logistics processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jadwiga Żurek

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available   Background: The aim of this publication is to address the changes in retail trade, which have a direct influence on the development of e-commerce which in turn causes modifications to logistics chain management strategies and methods of flow control. Materials: The article has been written on the basis of an analysis of subject literature together with determining the influence of e-commerce to changes in logistics processes. The publications included in this study have been selected in order to present the subject of e-commerce development as well as evaluate changes in methods of flow control. The analysis has been prepared based on the author's experience and available reports and publications. Results: As a result of the conducted analysis, an assessment of the proficiency level of the changes in logistics processes on the local and international market as well as of the trends for these changes has been made. Conclusions: With the development of e-commerce, a new logistics chain management strategy began to appear, which covered both the process of handling the online and offline sales channel. Therefore, it can be concluded that properly adapted flow control methods will be the means for achieving the goal. Tasks will include: streamlining flow processes, improving the efficiency of logistic processes as well as adjusting them to market requirements.    

  3. Influencing behavioral change by customer engagement amongst youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Sonal

    2011-01-01

    It is widely accepted that many social and health problems have underlying behavioral causes. Because these problems are rooted in human behavior, solutions to deal with them also lie in human behavior. This paper examines ways of integrating customer engagement in social programs to influence and initiate behavior change effectively with a special focus on youth. This work followed a theoretical deduction by use of a literature review. Social marketing places emphasis on behavior change, and one of the key challenges for social marketers is to ensure a perceived value for customers in taking up and maintaining positive behavior. If perceptions, beliefs, attitudes, and values influence behavior, then the central focus should be on the youth. Integrating youth is a prerequisite for effective social marketing programs and ultimately behavioral change. This approach will pave the way for effective brand positioning and brand loyalty in social marketing which has been lacking and requires more attention from researchers and policymakers. This paper outlines theoretical developments in social marketing that will increase the effectiveness of social marketing programs overall. Existing social marketing literature typically focuses on social marketing interventions and behavioral change. This paper uses customer engagement within a social marketing context so that social marketing programs are perceived as brands to which youth can relate.

  4. The challenge of changing the inactivated poliomyelitis vaccine in Latin America: declaration of the Latin American Society of Pediatric Infectious Diseases (SLIPE).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falleiros-Arlant, Luiza Helena; Avila-Agüero, María Luisa; Brea del Castillo, José; Mariño, Cristina

    2014-10-01

    Even though we have already covered 99% of the path to eradicate poliomyelitis from the world, this disease is still causing paralysis in children. Its eradication means not only the end of wild poliovirus circulation, but vaccine-derived poliovirus circulation as well. Taking into account different factors such as: current epidemiological data, adverse events of the attenuated oral poliomyelitis vaccine (OPV), the availability of an injectable inactivated vaccine (IPV) without the potential of causing the severe adverse events of the oral vaccine (OPV), the efficacy and effectiveness of the IPV in several countries of the world where it has been used for several years, the rationale of changing the vaccination schedule in different Latin American countries; the Latin American Society of Pediatric Infectious Diseases (SLIPE) announces its recommendation of switching to IPV in Latin America, by this Declaration, with an Action Plan for 2014-2015 period as regards vaccination against polio policies in Latin America. 1. The optimal proposed schedule consists of four IPV doses (three doses in the primary schedule plus a booster dose), whether IPV is combined or not with other indicated vaccines in the immunization program of the country. During the OPV to IPV transition phase, an alternative schedule is acceptable; 2. Countries should set optimal strategies in order to maintain and improve vaccination coverage, and implement a nominal immunization registry; 3. Improving the Epidemiological Surveillance of Acute Flaccid Paralysis (AFP) and setting up an environmental surveillance program; 4. Setting up strategies for introducing IPV in National Immunization Programs, such as communicating properly with the population, among others; 5. Bringing scientific societies closer to decision makers; 6. Ensuring optimal supply and prices for IPV introduction; 7. Training vaccination teams; 8. Enhancing the distribution and storing logistics of vaccines. In addition to the

  5. Amino acid changes in the spike protein of feline coronavirus correlate with systemic spread of virus from the intestine and not with feline infectious peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Emily; Tasker, Séverine; Day, Michael J; Harley, Ross; Kipar, Anja; Siddell, Stuart G; Helps, Christopher R

    2014-04-25

    Recent evidence suggests that a mutation in the spike protein gene of feline coronavirus (FCoV), which results in an amino acid change from methionine to leucine at position 1058, may be associated with feline infectious peritonitis (FIP). Tissue and faecal samples collected post mortem from cats diagnosed with or without FIP were subjected to RNA extraction and quantitative reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) to detect FCoV RNA. In cats with FIP, 95% of tissue, and 81% of faecal samples were PCR-positive, as opposed to 22% of tissue, and 60% of faecal samples in cats without FIP. Relative FCoV copy numbers were significantly higher in the cats with FIP, both in tissues (P < 0.001) and faeces (P = 0.02). PCR-positive samples underwent pyrosequencing encompassing position 1058 of the FCoV spike protein. This identified a methionine codon at position 1058, consistent with the shedding of an enteric form of FCoV, in 77% of the faecal samples from cats with FIP, and in 100% of the samples from cats without FIP. In contrast, 91% of the tissue samples from cats with FIP and 89% from cats without FIP had a leucine codon at position 1058, consistent with a systemic form of FCoV. These results suggest that the methionine to leucine substitution at position 1058 in the FCoV spike protein is indicative of systemic spread of FCoV from the intestine, rather than a virus with the potential to cause FIP.

  6. Contiguous spinal metastasis mimicking infectious spondylodiscitis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Chul Min; Lee, Seung Hun [Dept. of Radiology, Hanyang University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Bae, Ji Yoon [Dept. of Pathology, National Police Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-12-15

    Differential diagnosis between spinal metastasis and infectious spondylodiscitis is one of the occasional challenges in daily clinical practice. We encountered an unusual case of spinal metastasis in a 75-year-old female breast cancer patient that mimicked infectious spondylodiscitis. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) showed diffuse bone marrow infiltrations with paraspinal soft tissue infiltrative changes in 5 contiguous cervical vertebrae without significant compression fracture or cortical destruction. These MRI findings made it difficult to differentiate between spinal metastasis and infectious spondylodiscitis. Infectious spondylodiscitis such as tuberculous spondylodiscitis was regarded as the more appropriate diagnosis due to the continuous involvement of > 5 cervical vertebrae. The patient's clinical presentation also supported the presumptive diagnosis of infectious spondylodiscitis rather than spinal metastasis. Intravenous antibiotics were administered, but clinical symptoms worsened despite treatment. After pathologic confirmation by computed tomography-guided biopsy, we were able to confirm a final diagnosis of spinal metastasis.

  7. Changes in heliophysical parameter influence on environment of the Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, S.; Ma, W.

    2007-12-01

    Terrestrial as well as extraterrestrial satellite data and environmental parameter records were correlated. It has been observed that some relationship exists in between the changes in environment and extraterrestrial phenomenon. The star flare changes the cosmic parameters. The nearest star of earth, the Sun, is found to be under the influence of the star flare. It has been observed that there is some relationship in between the planetary indices (Kp) Electron flux (E flux) Proton flux (P-flux) of Sun-Earth environment with the changes in thermosphere, ionosphere, atmosphere and geosphere. The tsunami of 26 December 2004, abnormal snowfall in 2004-2005, sudden hike in global temperature and erratic monsoon in India and irregular rainfall in other parts of the world in 2006-2007 followed by snowfall and torrential rain are the impact of the star-sun-earth relationship.

  8. THE CLIMATIC CHANGES INFLUENCE ON ROMANIAN AGRICULTURE SECTOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GAVRILETEA MARIUS DAN

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays the entire world is confronting with different serious problems: economic crises, climate changes, increase of the population and many others. The accelerate rhythm of climate changes in the last years strongly affects the agriculture system. In this paper we will focus on the evolution of mean temperature and its effects on agriculture. The continuously global warming generates extreme meteorological phenomena, especially floods and heavy rains that destroy the crops. We will also analyze the existing situation in Romania related to agriculture risks (influenced by meteorological phenomena, the modalities that the Romanian Government and the insurance companies come to help the agriculture companies to decrease the exposure to specific risks. In conclusion, we will present pertinent solution for agriculture system in order to manage the delicate problems caused by climatic changes in Romania.

  9. [Infectious diseases research].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carratalà, Jordi; Alcamí, José; Cordero, Elisa; Miró, José M; Ramos, José Manuel

    2008-12-01

    There has been a significant increase in research activity into infectious diseases in Spain in the last few years. The Spanish Society of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology (SEIMC) currently has ten study groups, with the cooperation of infectious diseases specialists and microbiologists from different centres, with significant research activity. The program of Redes Temáticas de Investigación Cooperativa en Salud (Special Topics Cooperative Health Research Networks) is an appropriate framework for the strategic coordination of research groups from the Spanish autonomous communities. The Spanish Network for Research in Infectious Diseases (REIPI) and the Network for Research in AIDS (RIS) integrate investigators in Infectious Diseases from multiple groups, which continuously perform important research projects. Research using different experimental models in infectious diseases, in numerous institutions, is an important activity in our country. The analysis of the recent scientific production in Infectious Diseases shows that Spain has a good position in the context of the European Union. The research activity in Infectious Diseases carried out in our country is a great opportunity for the training of specialists in this area of knowledge.

  10. The Biasing Influence of Worldview on Climate Change Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook, J.

    2012-12-01

    It is well established that political ideology has a strong influence on public opinion about climate change. According to one survey (Leiserowitz et al 2011), the percentage of Democrats accepting that climate change is happening is over double the percentage of Tea Partiers. There is also evidence of ideologically driven belief polarization, where two people receiving the same evidence update their beliefs in opposite direction. Presenting scientific evidence can result in a backfire effect where conservatives become more sceptical of climate change. It is possible to model (and hence better understand) the backfire effect using Bayesian Networks which simulate belief updating using Bayes Law. In this model, trust in science is the driving force behind polarization and worldview is the knob that controls trust. One consequence of this model is that attempts to increase trust in science are expected to be largely ineffective for conservatives. It suggests that a potentially constructive approach is to reduce the biasing influence of worldview by affirming conservative values while presenting climate messages. Experimental data comparing the effectiveness of various interventions are presented and discussed in the context of the Bayesian Network model.

  11. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation-climate and vegetation-carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model MPI ESM including a module for vegetation dynamics. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the period from 1850 to 2120 and shut them down afterwards to evaluate the equilibrium response of the Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to a static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a higher temperature as evapotranspiration is reduced. In total, we find that vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K in 2300 due to natural vegetation cover shifts.

  12. The influence of vegetation dynamics on anthropogenic climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Port

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300.

    Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.

  13. The Influence and the Countermeasures about Water Resources in Northwest of Climate Change

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the influences and countermeasures of climate changes on the water resources in northwest.[Method] The influences of climate changes on water resources in northwest part were discussed.Considering to the demand of water,corresponding countermeasures were proposed.[Result] Though there were distinct regional differences about the influences of climate changes on water resources in northwest part,the positive influences were larger than negative influences in general;because o...

  14. Infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis (pinkeye)

    OpenAIRE

    Angelos, JA

    2015-01-01

    Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. As is the case for controlling other infectious livestock diseases, the most successful efforts to control infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis (IBK) will include consideration of the host, the environment, herd management, and ongoing surveillance even after the immediate crisis has passed. Research over many years has led to the discovery of a variety of antibiotic treatments and antibiotic regimens that can be effective against IBK. The...

  15. Sibship structure and risk of infectious mononucleosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rostgaard, Klaus; Nielsen, Trine Rasmussen; Wohlfahrt, Jan;

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Present understanding of increased risk of Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-related infectious mononucleosis among children of low birth order or small sibships is mainly based on old and indirect evidence. Societal changes and methodological limitations of previous studies call for new data...... sibship structure into account. RESULTS: A total of 12,872 cases of infectious mononucleosis were observed during 35.3 million person-years of follow-up. Statistical modelling showed that increasing sibship size was associated with a reduced risk of infectious mononucleosis and that younger siblings...... of blood donors followed up retrospectively for self-reported infectious mononucleosis. CONCLUSIONS: Younger siblings, and to a lesser degree older siblings, seem to be important in the transmission of EBV within families. Apparently the dogma of low birth order in a sibship as being at the highest risk...

  16. Emergent infectious uveitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khairallah Moncef

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Infectious causes should always be considered in all patients with uveitis and it should be ruled out first. The differential diagnosis includes multiple well-known diseases including herpes, syphilis, toxoplasmosis, tuberculosis, bartonellosis, Lyme disease, and others. However, clinicians should be aware of emerging infectious agents as potential causes of systemic illness and also intraocular inflammation. Air travel, immigration, and globalization of business have overturned traditional pattern of geographic distribution of infectious diseases, and therefore one should work locally but think globally, though it is not possible always. This review recapitulates the systemic and ocular mainfestations of several emergent infectious diseases relevant to the ophthalmologist including Rickettsioses, West Nile virus infection, Rift valley fever, dengue fever, and chikungunya. Retinitis, chorioretinitis, retinal vasculitis, and optic nerve involvement have been associated with these emergent infectious diseases. The diagnosis of any of these infections is usually based on pattern of uveitis, systemic symptoms and signs, and specific epidemiological data and confirmed by detection of specific antibody in serum. A systematic ocular examination, showing fairly typical fundus findings, may help in establishing an early clinical diagnosis, which allows prompt, appropriate management.

  17. What influences climate and glacier change in southwestern China?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasunari, Teppei J.

    2011-12-01

    The subject of climate change in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Himalayas has taken on increasing importance because of the availability of water resources from their mountain glaciers (Immerzeel et al 2010). Many of the glaciers over these regions have been retreating, while some are advancing and stable (Yao et al 2004, Scherler et al 2011). Other studies report that some glaciers in the Himalayas show acceleration of their shrinkage (e.g., Fujita and Nuimura 2011). However, the causes of glacier melting are still difficult to grasp because of the complexity of climatic change and its influence on glacier issues. Despite this, it is vital that we pursue further study to enable future predictions of glacier changes. The paper entitled 'Climate and glacier change in southwestern China during the past several decades' by Li et al (2011) provided carefully analyzed, quality controlled, long-term data on atmospheric temperature and precipitation during the period 1961-2008. The data were obtained from 111 Chinese stations. The researchers performed systematic analyses of temperature and precipitation over the whole southwestern Chinese domain. They discussed those changes in terms of other meteorological components such as atmospheric circulation patterns, radiation and altitude difference, and then showed how these factors could contribute to climate and glacier changes in the region. Air temperature and precipitation are strongly associated with glacier mass balance because of heat balance and the addition of mass when it snows. Temperature warming trends over many places in southwestern China were unequivocally dominant in all seasons and at higher altitudes. This indicates that the heat contribution to the glaciers has been increasing. On the other hand, precipitation has a wider variability in time and space. It is more difficult to clearly understand the effect of precipitation on the climate and glacier melting characteristics in the whole of southwestern China

  18. STATINS AND RISK OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. M. Drapkina

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Besides hypolipidemic effect statins demonstrate some not-lipid (pleotropic ones. Special attention has been paying to statin inducing reduction in bacterial infections incidence and severity, and pneumonia particularly. Results of the large studies on statin influence on infectious disease are presented.

  19. Information Supply Chain System for Managing Rare Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gopalakrishna-Remani, Venugopal

    2012-01-01

    Timely identification and reporting of rare infectious diseases has important economic, social and health implications. In this study, we investigate how different stakeholders in the existing reporting system influence the timeliness in identification and reporting of rare infectious diseases. Building on the vision of the information supply…

  20. Infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis (pinkeye).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelos, John A

    2015-03-01

    As is the case for controlling other infectious livestock diseases, the most successful efforts to control infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis (IBK) will include consideration of the host, the environment, herd management, and ongoing surveillance even after the immediate crisis has passed. Research over many years has led to the discovery of a variety of antibiotic treatments and antibiotic regimens that can be effective against IBK. The discoveries of Mor bovoculi and reports of IBK associated with Mycoplasma spp without concurrent Mor bovis or Mor bovoculi have raised new questions into the roles that other organisms may play in IBK pathogenesis.

  1. Global climate and infectious disease: The cholera paradigm

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Colwell, R.R. [Univ. of Maryland Biotechnology Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

    1996-12-20

    Historically, infectious diseases have had a profound effect on human populations, including their evolution and cultural development. Despite significant advances in medical science, infectious diseases continue to impact human populations in many parts of the world. Emerging diseases are considered to be those infections that either are newly appearing in the population or are rapidly increasing in incidence or expanding in geographic range. Emergence of disease is not a simple phenomenon, mainly because infectious diseases are dynamic. Most new infections are not caused by truly new pathogens but are microorganisms (viruses, bacteria, fungi, protozoa, and helminths) that find a new way to enter a susceptible host and are newly recognized because of recently developed, sensitive techniques. Human activities drive emergence of disease and a variety of social, economic, political, climatic, technological, and environmental factors can shape the pattern of a disease and influence its emergence into populations. For example, travel affects emergence of disease, and human migrations have been the main source of epidemics throughout history. Trade caravans, religious pilgrimage, and military campaigns facilitated the spread of plague, smallpox, and cholera. Global travel is a fact of modern life and, equally so, the continued evolution of microorganisms; therefore, new infections will continue to emerge, and known infections will change in distribution, frequency, and severity. 88 refs., 1 fig.

  2. Acute Infectious Morbidity in Multiple Gestation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah K. Dotters-Katz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objectives. Physiologic and immunologic changes in pregnancy result in increased susceptibility to infection. These shifts are more pronounced in pregnancies complicated by multiple gestation. The objective of this study was to determine the association between multiple gestation and risk of infectious morbidity. Study Design. The Nationwide Inpatient Sample for the years 2008–2010 was used to identify pregnant women during admission for delivery with International Classification of Diseases codes. Logistic regression was used to compute odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for demographic data, preexisting medical conditions, and acute medical and infectious complications for women with multiple versus singleton gestations. Results. Among women with multiple gestation, 38.4 per 1,000 women had an infectious complication compared to 12.8 per 1,000 women with singletons. The most significant infectious morbidity associated with multiple gestation was intestinal infections, pyelonephritis, influenza, and pneumonia. After controlling for confounding variables, infectious complications at delivery persisted for women with multiples, though the association was dependent on mode of delivery. Conclusions. Women with multiple gestations are at increased risk for infectious morbidity identified at the time of delivery. This association was diminished among women who had a cesarean suggesting that operative delivery is not responsible for this association.

  3. Influence Strategies of Principals: Ordinary Times Compared with Times of Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somech, Anit; Drach-Zahavy, Anat

    2001-01-01

    Examines whether principals utilized flexible influence strategies under changing circumstances, based on perceptions of 450 Israeli elementary teachers. Principals acted mainly through an informal, less directive orientation of influence both in ordinary times and in times of change. Principals' leaned toward participatory influence approaches.…

  4. Landscape genetics in a changing world: disentangling historical and contemporary influences and inferring change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Epps, Clinton W; Keyghobadi, Nusha

    2015-12-01

    Landscape genetics seeks to determine the effect of landscape features on gene flow and genetic structure. Often, such analyses are intended to inform conservation and management. However, depending on the many factors that influence the time to reach equilibrium, genetic structure may more strongly represent past rather than contemporary landscapes. This well-known lag between current demographic processes and population genetic structure often makes it challenging to interpret how contemporary landscapes and anthropogenic activity shape gene flow. Here, we review the theoretical framework for factors that influence time lags, summarize approaches to address this temporal disconnect in landscape genetic studies, and evaluate ways to make inferences about landscape change and its effects on species using genetic data alone or in combination with other data. Those approaches include comparing correlation of genetic structure with historical versus contemporary landscapes, using molecular markers with different rates of evolution, contrasting metrics of genetic structure and gene flow that reflect population genetic processes operating at different temporal scales, comparing historical and contemporary samples, combining genetic data with contemporary estimates of species distribution or movement, and controlling for phylogeographic history. We recommend using simulated data sets to explore time lags in genetic structure, and argue that time lags should be explicitly considered both when designing and interpreting landscape genetic studies. We conclude that the time lag problem can be exploited to strengthen inferences about recent landscape changes and to establish conservation baselines, particularly when genetic data are combined with other data.

  5. Infectious uveitis in Virginia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Engelhard SB

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Stephanie B Engelhard,1 Zeina Haddad,1 Asima Bajwa,1 James Patrie,2 Wenjun Xin,2 Ashvini K Reddy1 1Department of Ophthalmology, 2Department of Public Health Sciences, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA Purpose: To report the causes, clinical features, and outcomes of infectious uveitis in patients managed in a mid-Atlantic tertiary care center.Methods: Retrospective, observational study of infectious uveitis patients seen at the University of Virginia from 1984 to 2014.Results: Seventy-seven of 491 patients (15.7% were diagnosed with infectious uveitis (mean age 58 years, 71.4% female, 76.6% Caucasian. The mean follow-up was 5 years. Anterior uveitis was the most common anatomic classification (39 patients, 50.6% followed by panuveitis (20 patients, 26.0% and posterior uveitis (18 patients, 23.4%. The most common infectious etiology was herpetic anterior uveitis (37 patients, 48.1% followed by toxoplasma uveitis (14 patients, 18.2%. The most prevalent viral pathogen was varicella-zoster virus (21 patients, 27.3% followed by herpes simplex virus (20 patients, 26.0%. Acute retinal necrosis (ARN was diagnosed in 14 patients (18.2%. Aqueous humor yielded an etiologic diagnosis in seven (50% of ARN patients, four of whom tested positive for cytomegalovirus and three for varicella-zoster virus. On presentation, 43 patients (55.8% had a visual acuity (VA better than 20/40 and 17 (22.1% had a VA worse than 20/200. VA at the final follow-up was better than 20/40 in 39 patients (50.6% and worse than 20/200 in 22 patients (28.6%. In all, 16 (20.8% and 10 (13.0% patients required cataract and vitrectomy surgery, respectively. A total of 14 patients (18.2% were on glaucoma topical treatment and four (5.2% required glaucoma surgery.Conclusion: The most common type of infectious uveitis seen over the study period was herpetic anterior uveitis secondary to varicella-zoster virus or herpes simplex virus, found to be most prevalent in patients

  6. PACS storage requirements - influence of changes in imaging modalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ooijen, PMA; ten Bhomer, PJM; Oudkerk, M; Lemke, HU; Inamura, K; Doi, K; Vannier, MW; Farman, AG

    2005-01-01

    In current radiology departments, imaging modalities are changing rapidly. One reason for these changes is the continuous technical development providing new imaging modalities with higher spatial and temporal resolution and increased capabilities. Another important reason for change is the replacem

  7. Vasculitis and infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satta, R; Biondi, G

    2015-04-01

    Vasculitis usually presents without a well-known underline cause (idiopathic vasculitis), nevertheless, it is sometimes possible to find out one or more causative agents (secondary vasculitis). Nowadays, thanks to the increasing amount of precise diagnostic tools, a piece of idiopathic vasculitis is reclassified as associated with probable etiology, which can be set off by several factors, such as infections. Infections are considered to be the most common cause of secondary vasculitis. Virtually, every infectious agent can trigger a vasculitis by different mechanisms which can be divided in two main categories: direct and indirect. In the former, infectious agents destroy directly the vascular wall leading, eventually, to a subsequent inflammatory response. In the latter, indirect form, they stimulate an immune response against blood vessels. Different infectious agents are able to directly damage the vascular wall. Among these, it is possible to recognize Staphylococcus spp, Streptococcus spp, Salmonella spp, Treponema spp, Rickettsia spp, Cytomegalovirus, Herpes Simplex Virus 1 and 2, and many others which have a peculiar tropism for endothelial cells. Conversely, another group of microbial agents, such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Mycobacterium leprae, Hepatits B Virus, Human Immunodeficiency Virus and others, trigger vasculitis in the indirect way. This is due to the fact that they can share epitopes with the host or modify self-antigens, thus leading to a cross-self reaction of the immune system. These mechanism, in turn, leads to immunological responses classified as type I-IV by Gell-Coombs. Nevertheless, it is difficult to strictly separate the direct and indirect forms, because most infectious agents can cause vasculitis in both ways (mixed forms). This paper will analyze the link between infectious agents and vasculitis, focusing on direct and indirect secondary vasculitis, and on a group of probable infection-related idiopathic vasculitis, and finally

  8. Infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M H; Brightman, A H; Fenwick, B W; Rider, M A

    1998-01-01

    The economic impact of infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis (IBK) warrants continued investigation of the mechanisms by which Moraxella bovis survives on and colonizes the corneal surface. Virulent strains of M bovis produce hemolysin and exhibit different plasmid profiles than nonvirulent strains. Interactions among host, environment, vector, season, and concurrent infection influence the prevalence of IBK. Mycoplasma sp. or infectious bovine rhinotracheitis virus may enhance or hasten the disease process. The manifestations of IBK may range from mild conjunctivitis to severe ulceration, corneal perforation, and blindness. Treatment of IBK is dictated by economic considerations, intended animal use, and feasibility of administration. Antibiotic therapy is aimed at achieving drug concentrations in tears to meet or exceed the minimum inhibitory concentration for prolonged periods. At present, IBK is not a preventable disease. Affected animals must be separated from the herd and vector control vigorously instituted. Carrier animals must be identified and removed from the herd. Vaccination trials have been unsuccessful because of pili antigen cross-reactivity, variable strains, and uncontrolled environmental factors. Recent investigations have determined that M bovis may utilize host iron sources via iron-repressible outer membrane proteins and siderophores for growth. Elucidation of normal defense mechanisms of the bovine eye may lead to new strategies to enhance the immune response against M bovis.

  9. Change Management and its Influence in the Business Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr.Sc. Berim Ramosaj

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The changes that are happening in businesses dictate the changes in all kinds of needed resources to develop the organization. The environment in which the organizations operate is in constant change and becomes more and more unpredictable. Managing these changes is a challenge that all enterprises face. The rapid changes that are happening in business are increasing the need to manage these changes. Enterprises have to develop and use different kinds of management models so that they can grow their performance in order to ensure a competitive position in the market. The changes in enterprises sometimes are not accepted by the organization employees, and seem to have negative effects towards them (exemption from work, reduction of working hours, reduction of income. Changes have negative and positive effects. Successful and rational managers can achieve having successful changes and minimizing the negative effects that come due to changes. Changes are vital for organizations so that they can replace the old plans and models with new and successful ones. In this paper we talk about the role and importance of managing the changes, the types of changes, models of changes, the resistance against changes and also the obtained results of the paper are introduced. Literature was used to support the research in the study field, and based on that to explain the role of changes in the business environment. There are quantitative methods and an inductive analysis used in this paper.

  10. 76 FR 39041 - Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-05

    ... Occupational Safety and Health Administration 29 CFR Part 1910 RIN 1218-AC46 Infectious Diseases AGENCY... exposure to infectious diseases. OSHA plans to use the information gathered at these meetings to explore... your request to: (781) 674-7200, and label it ``Attention: OSHA Infectious Diseases Stakeholder...

  11. Wetlands and infectious diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Robert H. Zimmerman

    2001-01-01

    There is a historical association between wetlands and infectious disease that has led to the modification of wetlands to prevent disease. At the same time there has been the development of water resources projects that increase the risk of disease. The demand for more water development projects and the increased pressure to make natural wetlands economically beneficial creates the need for an ecological approach to wetland management and health assessment. The environmental and health intera...

  12. MICROBIOLOGICAL METHODS APPLICATION EXPERIENCE IN THE SEVERE INJURIES INFECTIOUS COMPLICATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Svistunov

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern clinical medicine and surgery problems are associated with infections complications after medical care. In recent years, surgery has made substantial progress related to the new organizational approaches and medical technology specialized medical care to the wounded and injured. However, these gains are offset by a high rate of infectious complications that require finding effective measures emerging infectious complications timely diagnosis and their prevention. Clinical manifestations are often nosocomial in patients with severe injuries and are largely determined by the influence of clinical and pathogenetic risk factors. Such infectious complications require a comprehensive assessment, including microbiological testing. The main causative agents of infectious complications in surgical hospitals are S. aureus, K. pneumoniae, P. aeruginosa, Acinetobacter spp., which can cause bloodstream infections, soft tissue, respiratory and urinary tract infections, especially in debilitated and immunocompromised patients and patients in intensive care units. These micro organisms are dangerous to patients and medical staff, as they can survive for a long time in the hospital environment, as well as to spread from patient to patient in violation of isolation restrictive measures and requirements for hygiene of medical workers hands. Clinical patterns of infection associated with medical care for severe injuries are to the possibility of serial and parallel development, both in different and in the same time frame of local, visceral and generalized infection with prevalence of combined forms of patients surgical hospital with a high risk of nosocomial infection against the background of factors, diagnostic and treatment process and hospital environment, introduction of the agent. Early etiological diagnosis allows timely assign empirical causal treatment and arrange for infection control to prevent the spread of microorganisms in the hospital. The

  13. 山西省太原市传染病医院2001-2011年疾病谱变迁及常见传染病流行趋势分析%2001-2011 annual changes of disease spectrum and trends analysis of common infectious diseases of the infectious diseases hospital of Taiyuan in Shanxi province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    冯亦农; 刘宝芳

    2013-01-01

    Objective To analyze the inpatients species changes of infectious disease hospital from 2001 to 2011 years in Taiyuan,and make relevant recommendations to the trends and prevention strategies for common infectious diseases.Methods The diseases species of the hospital from 2001 to 2011 years and the number of hospitalized patients were retrospectively counted and analyzed.Results The proportion of liver disease hospitalized was always more than 60% in the ten years;The bacillary dysentery decreased from 4.23% in 2006 to 0.96% in 2011 ;The hospitalized patients with measles decreased significantly since 2009,and only 0.26% in 2011 ;In 2008,hand-foot-mouth disease accounted for 3.42% of the hospitalized patients,and it peaked in 2010,accounting for 7.51% ; The number of hospitalized patients with rabies disease rised in 2011,accounting for 0.27%.Conclusion Liver disease is still the major infectious diseases of the hospital;The mumps,chicken pox,scarlet fever and other respiratory diseases as well as hand-foot-mouth disease is a common infectious disease threats to the health of infants and young children,and for the increasing trend of the number of patients with brucellosis hairtetracycline,the tetracycline and brucellosis drugs for children should be promoted to product and sale.The rabies vaccination knowledge should be popularized,and the incidence of rabies should be reduced.%目的 分析2001-2011年太原市传染病医院住院病种的变化,对常见传染病的流行趋势及防治策略提出相关建议.方法 对2001-2011年该院各种疾病病种及住院例数进行回顾性统计分析.结果 肝病的住院比例在十年间始终在60%以上;细菌性痢疾从2006年的4.23%下降至2011年的0.96%;自2009年以后麻疹住院患者明显减少,2011年仅占0.26%;2008年手足口病占住院患者的3.42%,2010年达到高峰,占7.51%;2011年狂犬病住院例数攀升,达到0.27%.结论 肝病仍是该院的主

  14. Contact structure, mobility, environmental impact and behaviour: the importance of social forces to infectious disease dynamics and disease ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur, Ronan F; Gurley, Emily S; Salje, Henrik; Bloomfield, Laura S P; Jones, James H

    2017-05-05

    Human factors, including contact structure, movement, impact on the environment and patterns of behaviour, can have significant influence on the emergence of novel infectious diseases and the transmission and amplification of established ones. As anthropogenic climate change alters natural systems and global economic forces drive land-use and land-cover change, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the ecological and social factors that impact infectious disease outcomes for human populations. While the field of disease ecology explicitly studies the ecological aspects of infectious disease transmission, the effects of the social context on zoonotic pathogen spillover and subsequent human-to-human transmission are comparatively neglected in the literature. The social sciences encompass a variety of disciplines and frameworks for understanding infectious diseases; however, here we focus on four primary areas of social systems that quantitatively and qualitatively contribute to infectious diseases as social-ecological systems. These areas are social mixing and structure, space and mobility, geography and environmental impact, and behaviour and behaviour change. Incorporation of these social factors requires empirical studies for parametrization, phenomena characterization and integrated theoretical modelling of social-ecological interactions. The social-ecological system that dictates infectious disease dynamics is a complex system rich in interacting variables with dynamically significant heterogeneous properties. Future discussions about infectious disease spillover and transmission in human populations need to address the social context that affects particular disease systems by identifying and measuring qualitatively important drivers.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'.

  15. Variables Influencing the Likelihood of Practice Change after Continuing Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrah, Shirley J.; Graham, Steven W.

    This study was conducted to identify the continuing education (CE) elements nurses believed were most likely to influence their nursing practice and to examine R. Cervero's (1982) comprehensive model of continuing professional education. A total of 344 registered nurses returned questionnaires about CE. Using a researcher-developed 37-item…

  16. Possible impact of rising sea levels on vector-borne infectious diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Surendran Sinnathamby N

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Vector-borne infectious diseases are a significant cause of human and animal mortality and morbidity. Modeling studies predict that changes in climate that accompany global warming will alter the transmission risk of many vector-borne infectious diseases in different parts of the world. Global warming will also raise sea levels, which will lead to an increase in saline and brackish water bodies in coastal areas. The potential impact of rising sea levels, as opposed to climate change, on the prevalence of vector-borne infectious diseases has hitherto been unrecognised. Presentation of the hypothesis Mosquito species possessing salinity-tolerant larvae and pupae, and capable of transmitting arboviruses and parasites are found in many parts of the world. An expansion of brackish and saline water bodies in coastal areas, associated with rising sea levels, can increase densities of salinity-tolerant vector mosquitoes and lead to the adaptation of freshwater vectors to breed in brackish and saline waters. The breeding of non-mosquito vectors may also be influenced by salinity changes in coastal habitats. Higher vector densities can increase transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases in coastal localities, which can then spread to other areas. Testing the hypothesis The demonstration of increases in vector populations and disease prevalence that is related to an expansion of brackish/saline water bodies in coastal areas will provide the necessary supportive evidence. However the implementation of specific vector and disease control measures to counter the threat will confound the expected findings. Implications of the hypothesis Rising sea levels can act synergistically with climate change and then interact in a complex manner with other environmental and socio-economic factors to generate a greater potential for the transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases. The resulting health impacts are likely to be particularly

  17. Employee resistance to organizational change: managerial influence tactics and leader-member exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furst, Stacie A; Cable, Daniel M

    2008-03-01

    The authors explored the relationship between managerial influence tactics and employee resistance to organizational change. Using attribution theory, the authors developed a series of hypotheses concerning the effects of influence tactics on employee resistance to change and the ways in which these relationships are moderated by leader-member exchange. Results, which are based on multisource data, suggest that employee resistance reflects both the type of influence a manager uses and the strength of leader-member exchange.

  18. Globalization and infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenk, Julio; Gómez-Dantés, Octavio; Knaul, Felicia M

    2011-09-01

    This article discusses the nature of the health challenges created by globalization and proposes new forms of international cooperation to confront them. The discussion of global health challenges includes both the transfer of health risks, with an emphasis on infectious diseases, and the international dissemination of health opportunities, including the transfer of knowledge and technology. The authors argue that the health-related challenges and opportunities of an increasingly interdependent world demand new forms of international cooperation. The authors suggest the promotion of 3 elements that, in their essence, contain the idea of collaboration: exchange, evidence, and empathy.

  19. Feline infectious peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodson, Teresa; Randell, Susan; Moore, Lisa

    2009-10-01

    Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) frequently results in death in cats. It is caused by a mutated, highly contagious coronavirus, and it is more common in indoor cats in multicat households. A complex interaction between the coronavirus and the feline immune system causes disseminated vasculitis, which is the hallmark of FIP. New tests are being developed, but the antemortem diagnosis of FIP continues to be difficult and frustrating. Current treatments are crude and involve supportive care and immunosuppression. Minimizing exposure is the best method of preventing infection.

  20. Cardiac imaging in infectious endocarditis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruun, Niels Eske; Habib, Gilbert; Thuny, Franck;

    2014-01-01

    Infectious endocarditis remains both a diagnostic and a treatment challenge. A positive outcome depends on a rapid diagnosis, accurate risk stratification, and a thorough follow-up. Imaging plays a key role in each of these steps and echocardiography remains the cornerstone of the methods in use....... The technique of both transthoracic echocardiography and transoesophageal echocardiography has been markedly improved across the last decades and most recently three-dimensional real-time echocardiography has been introduced in the management of endocarditis patients. Echocardiography depicts structural changes...... with conventional CT (SPECT/CT). Of these methods, (18)F-FDG PET-CT carries the best promise for a future role in endocarditis. But there are distinct limitations with both SPECT/CT and (18)F-FDG PET-CT which should not be neglected. MRI and spiral CT are methods primarily used in the search for extra cardial...

  1. Anticipating the Emerging of Some Strategical Infectious Animal Diseases in Indonesia Related to The Effect of Global Warming and Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sjamsul Bahri

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available The effect of global warming and climate change is changing the season, included flooding in one area and very dry in other area, changing the temperature and humidity. These changes will trigger changing of the life of biological agent (virus, bacteria, parasites and so on, variety of animal species, variety of vectors as reservoir host of animal with the role of transmitting the disease to other animal species, This condition will trigger the new animal disease (emerging disease or old disease will be re-emerged (re-emerging diseases. This paper will discuss the effect of global warming and climate change on animal diseases in Indonesia such as Bluetongue (BT, Nipah, Japanese encephalitis (JE, West Nile (WN, and Rift Valley fever (RVF. The climate changes such as increasing the earth temperature and rainfall will cause extremely increase of vector population for BT, JE, WN and RVF. In addition, animal transportation and bird migration from one country to others or region will cause changing of ecological system and will open the chance to distribute the diseases. Hence, anticipation on those disease outbreaks should be taken by conducting the surveilance and early detection to those diseases. The possibility of entering Nipah disease in Indonesia should be anticipated because the avaibility of Nipah virus and the reservoir host (Pteropus spp and also pigs as amplifier host in the surrounding area. Other diseases such as, leptospirosis, anthrax and avian influenza (H5N1 are also have a wider potential to distributing the disease related to the climate change in Indonesia.

  2. REASONS OF CURRENCY FLUCTUATIONS AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON ECONOMIC CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klimova N. V.

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate has direct impact on economy of any state. Without competent management, it is impossible to achieve successful functioning of national economy, which causes the need of studying of the matter. Fluctuations of an exchange rate depend on market condition. Therefore, the exchange rate is under influence of a condition of the balance of payments, a difference of interest rates in various countries, extent of use of currency in international payments, speculative currency transactions and activity of the currency markets, inflation and many others, considered in this article. Possible consequences of their influence on exchange rate are specified, examples are given. Dependence of growth of the money supply, the monetary base and inflation in Russia is reflected. The analysis of economic aspects on which exchange rate renders direct influence, namely, foreign trade, capital streams, interest rates, business development, purchasing power of the population, growth of economy is carried out. The assessment of an exchange rate of the Russian Federation is carried out. The following factors have the greatest impact on it: floating rate of ruble, increase of a rate of refinancing, oil depreciation, and lack of possibility of refinancing of external debts. Measures for stabilization of ruble, among which fixation of currency positions of banks, increase of control of target use of earlier issued credits, differentiation of speculative operations from the others, introduction of a tax of Tobin and introduction of indispensable conditions of sale of a certain part of revenue are offered. Realization of these measures will have positive impact on stabilization of ruble exchange rate and an economic situation of Russia in general

  3. Studies on Infectious Mononucleosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joncas, J.; Chagnon, A.; Pavilanis, V.

    1966-01-01

    Viral studies were carried out on throat swabs, rectal swabs and washed white blood cells from 27 cases of infectious mononucleosis (positive Paul-Bunnell-David-sohn test), and from 22 controls. Four cytopathic agents were isolated in the test group, two of which were readily subcultured for at least three successive passages. Three cytopathic agents were recovered in the control group, two of which have been identified as adenovirus type 5 and adenovirus type 3. The unidentified agents tested so far are sensitive to ether and to pH 3. The results of acridine-orange staining and the immunofluorescence technique, using a conjugated control serum and two conjugated convalescent infectious mononucleosis sera, indicate that the isolated agent or agents in the test group are RNA-type agents with a cytoplasmic cycle of development. The overall results of this study lead the authors to suspect a respiratory syncytial-like myxovirus as the as yet unidentified agent which they recovered. ImagesFig. 1aFig. 1bFig. 1cFig. 1dFig. 2aFig. 2bFig. 2cFig. 2dFig. 3aFig. 3bFig. 3cFig. 3dFig. 3eFig. 3f PMID:4952899

  4. Influence of Dynamical Change of Edges on Clustering Coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuhong Ruan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Clustering coefficient is a very important measurement in complex networks, and it describes the average ratio between the actual existent edges and probable existent edges in the neighbor of one vertex in a complex network. Besides, in a complex networks, the dynamic change of edges can trigger directly the evolution of network and further affect the clustering coefficients. As a result, in this paper, we investigate the effects of the dynamic change of edge on the clustering coefficients. It is illustrated that the increase and decrease of the clustering coefficient can be effectively controlled by adding or deleting several edges of the network in the evolution of complex networks.

  5. Does the weather influence public opinion about climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, S. D.; McDaniel, J.

    2010-12-01

    Public opinion in North America about the science of anthropogenic climate change and the motivation for policy action has been variable over the past twenty years. The trends in public opinion over time have been attributed the general lack of pressing public concern about climate change to a range of political, economic and psychological factors. One driving force behind the variability in polling data from year to year may be the weather itself. The difference between what we “expect” - the climate - and what we “get” - the weather - can be a major source of confusion and obfuscation in the public discourse about climate change. For example, reaction to moderate global temperatures in 2007 and 2008 may have helped prompt the spread of a “global cooling” meme in the public and the news media. At the same time, a decrease in the belief in the science of climate change and the need for action has been noted in opinion polls. This study analyzes the relationship between public opinion about climate change and the weather in the U.S. since the mid-1980s using historical polling data from several major organizations (e.g. Gallup, Pew, Harris Interactive, ABC News), historical monthly air temperature (NCDC) and a survey of opinion articles from major U.S. newspapers (Washington Post, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Houston Chronicle, USA Today). Seasonal and annual monthly temperature anomalies for the northeastern U.S and the continental U.S are compared with available national opinion data for three general categories of questions: i) Is the climate warming?, ii) Is the observed warming due to human activity?, and iii) Are you concerned about climate change? The variability in temperature and public opinion over time is also compared with the variability in the fraction of opinion articles in the newspapers (n ~ 7000) which express general agreement or disagreement with IPCC Summary for Policymakers consensus statements on climate change (“most of

  6. Influence of Heat Treatment on Color Change of Poplar

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, Populus tomentosa was used as samples for heat treatment in order to find the initial effect rule of color change, when the temperature rose to180, 200 and 220 oC and the time was kept for 1, 2 and 3 h, respectively. The results are shown as follows: The color of treated wood can be changed obviously by the heat treatment. Under the same temperature, the color saturation becomes smaller and the difference of color becomes more obvious with the increase of the keeping time. Lightness and color...

  7. 急性感染性腹泻患儿血清CRP值变化的临床意义%Change of Serum CRP in Acute Infectious Diarrhea in Children

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    叶国华; 张锦光; 黎惠璋; 郭德康; 郭溉宗

    2009-01-01

    [目的]探讨急性感染性腹泻患儿血清C反应蛋白(CRP)的变化及临床意义.[方法]对132例急性感染性腹泻患儿按病原体不同分为病毒性肠炎组82例和细菌性肠炎组50例;按病情程度不同分为重型腹泻组73例和轻型腹泻组59例.应用免疫比浊法测定血清CRP及血生化,同时测定53例健康对照组CRP.[结果]82例病毒性肠炎组及50例细菌性肠炎组CRP均明显高于对照组(P<0.01),病毒性肠炎组与细菌性肠炎组比较CRP差异无显著性(P>0.05),73例重型腹泻组与59例轻型腹泻组比较CRP差异有显著性(P<0.01).[结论]急性感染性腹泻患儿CRP不能作为鉴别病毒或细菌感染的指标,但可作为评价病情严重与否的有用指标.%[Objective] To explore the change of serum C-reaction protein (CRP) level in the acute infectious diarrhea and evaluation its clinical significance. [Methods]A total of 132 cases of acute infectious diarrhea in children were divided into viral enteritis group(n=82) and bacterial enteritis group (n=50) by different pathogens. According to the degree of the disease state, all patients were divided into severe diarrhea group (n=73) and light diarrhea group (n=59). The serum CRP and blood biochemistry were measured by immunoturbidimetry method. Fifty three healthy children were selected as controls. [Results]The serum CRP level in the viral enteritis group and bacterial enteritis group was obviously higher than that in the control group(P0.05). There was significant difference between severe diarrhea group and light diarrhea group (P<0.01). [Conclusion] The serum CRP level in the acute infectious diarrhea can not be the indicator for distinguishing viral and bacterial infections, but it can evaluate the disease severity.

  8. Changing Economic and Social Influences on Family Involvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincent, Lisbeth J.; Salisbury, Christine L.

    1988-01-01

    The implications of such societal changes as increased incidences of single parenthood, divorce, and out-of-home childcare for achieving the family focus in early intervention services as required by Public Law 99-457 are addressed. (Author/DB)

  9. Drivers influencing streamflow changes in the Upper Turia basin, Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salmoral, Gloria; Willaarts, Bárbara A; Troch, Peter A; Garrido, Alberto

    2015-01-15

    Many rivers across the world have experienced a significant streamflow reduction over the last decades. Drivers of the observed streamflow changes are multiple, including climate change (CC), land use and land cover changes (LULCC), water transfers and river impoundment. Many of these drivers inter-act simultaneously, making it difficult to discern the impact of each driver individually. In this study we isolate the effects of LULCC on the observed streamflow reduction in the Upper Turia basin (east Spain) during the period 1973-2008. Regression models of annual streamflow are fitted with climatic variables and also additional time variant drivers like LULCC. The ecohydrological model SWAT is used to study the magnitude and sign of streamflow change when LULCC occurs. Our results show that LULCC does play a significant role on the water balance, but it is not the main driver underpinning the observed reduction on Turia's streamflow. Increasing mean temperature is the main factor supporting increasing evapotranspiration and streamflow reduction. In fact, LULCC and CC have had an offsetting effect on the streamflow generation during the study period. While streamflow has been negatively affected by increasing temperature, ongoing LULCC have positively compensated with reduced evapotranspiration rates, thanks to mainly shrubland clearing and forest degradation processes. These findings are valuable for the management of the Turia river basin, as well as a useful approach for the determination of the weight of LULCC on the hydrological response in other regions.

  10. Situational and Personal Influence on Attitude Change Following Ethnic Contact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amir, Yehuda; Garti, Chana

    1977-01-01

    Examines the validity of the effects of intergroup contact research on ethnic attitudes carried out in the United States. Attempts to demonstrate that a given contact situation may have different effects for the groups involved in terms of change of attitude towards each other by testing adolescent Israeli females participating in a summer camp.…

  11. Pseudothrombocytopenia associated with infectious mononucleosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsieh, A T; Chao, T Y; Chen, Y C

    2003-01-01

    A 22-year-old man was hospitalized for assessment of thrombocytopenia and fever. Examination showed that he had infectious mononucleosis and moderately severe thrombocytopenia that was asymptomatic. Examination of blood smears revealed that the thrombocytopenia was caused by the clumping of platelets. We made a diagnosis of ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid-dependent pseudothrombocytopenia after excluding other infectious mononucleosis-related mechanisms of thrombocytopenia. When the patient recovered from infectious mononucleosis 2 months later, his thrombocytopenia improved, and no platelet clumping in peripheral blood smears was noted. Ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid-dependent pseudothrombocytopenia should always be considered as a possible cause of reported low platelet counts, even in patients with infectious mononucleosis and splenomegaly.

  12. The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard

    2015-04-01

    Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the

  13. Selected Health Behaviors that Influence College Freshman Weight Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasparek, Danella Gilmore; Corwin, Sara J.; Valois, Robert F.; Sargent, Roger G.; Morris, Richard Lewis

    2008-01-01

    Objective and Participants: The authors investigated the effect of physical activity (PA), fruit and vegetable intake, and alcohol use on 6-month weight change in 193 college freshmen (78.8% white, 88.2% women, 94.5% on a meal plan). Methods: The authors administered a Web-based survey in fall 2002 (baseline) and spring 2003 (follow-up). Results:…

  14. Influencing Change in the People’s Republic of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-03-25

    This is the reason why they emphasized that political power grows out of the barrel of a gun. Why after the third or fourth generation could leaders not... Political Offensive" by the Taiwan Experience 20. DISTRIBUTION/AVAILABILITY OF ABSTRACT 21. ABSTRACT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 0 UNCLASSIFIED/UNLIMITED 0...34Economic and Political Offensive" by the Taiwan Experience and has had great success. Now the PRC is changing rapidly and the US’s right actions will

  15. Sports: The Infectious Hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minooee, Arezou; Wang, Jeff; Gupta, Geeta K

    2015-10-01

    Although the medical complications of sports are usually traumatic in nature, infectious hazards also arise. While blood-borne pathogens such as HIV, hepatitis B, and hepatitis C, cause significant illness, the risk of acquiring these agents during sporting activities is minimal. Skin infections are more commonplace, arising from a variety of microbial agents including bacterial, fungal, and viral pathogens. Sports involving water contact can lead to enteric infections, eye infections, or disseminated infections such as leptospirosis. Mumps, measles, and influenza are vaccine-preventable diseases that have been transmitted during sporting events, both in players and in spectators. Prevention is the key to many of these infections. Players should be vaccinated and should not participate in sports if their infection can be spread by contact, airborne, or droplet transmission.

  16. Visiting a climate-influenced national park: the stability of climate change perceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brownlee, Matthew Tyler James; Hallo, Jeffrey C; Wright, Brett A; Moore, Dewayne; Powell, Robert B

    2013-11-01

    Understanding perceptions of global environmental issues, such as climate change, can help inform resource management, policy development, and communication with constituents. Although a considerable amount of research documents citizens' perceptions of climate change, few have investigated how interactions with climate-impacted parks and protected areas influence these perceptions, and consequently elements of environmental management. Using a mixed methods Instrument Development Approach, the researchers examined the stability of park visitors' (N = 429) climate change perceptions during a daylong interaction with climate-sensitive and influenced resources at Kenai Fjords National Park in Alaska. Results indicate that global-level beliefs about climate change remained relatively stable during a park experience, but perceptions about climate change at the park-level (e.g., impacts) appeared more malleable. Findings also revealed the type of park experience (terrestrial vs. marine) can influence the degree of change in visitors' perceptions. Implications for communication, outreach, and park management are discussed.

  17. Influence of Climate Change on River Discharge in Austria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert A. Goler

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The effect of climate change on the river discharge characteristics in four catchment basins within Austria is investigated using a hydrological model. Input for the model are daily climate data generated from three regional climate models (RCMs over the time period 1951–2100 using the A1B emission scenario. Due to the complex terrain of the basins, the climate data has been downscaled to a resolution of 1km×1km$1\\,\\text{km}\\times1\\,\\text{km}$. The hydrological model includes processes such as meltwater from snow and glaciers; surface, subsurface, and groundwater flows; and evapotranspiration. The modelling results show that, although only one RCM exhibits a significant reduction in the mean annual discharge towards the end of the 21st century, all RCMs exhibit significant changes in the seasonal distribution of the discharge. In particular, for basins whose discharge is dependent on water stored as snow, there will be a shift in the time of maximum river discharge to earlier in the year as the snow and ice melt earlier. During the winter months the discharge is forecasted to be higher than at present, which would lead to the number of days of low discharge being reduced. However, the earlier snow melt means that the available water for the summer months will be reduced, leading to lower discharges than present, and thus an increase in the number of low discharge days.

  18. The influence of change software of engine control unit on chosen parameters of its work

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr GUSTOF

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work was presented the influence of changes software of engine control unit Fiat Stilo 1,9 JTD on chosen parameters of its work: maximum power, engine torque, acceleration, maximum speed and average fuel consumption.

  19. INFLUENCE OF PHYSICAL QUALITY CHANGES ON UV DISINFECTION OF WASTEWATER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.Vaezi

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available Ultraviolet Radiation (UVR has been accepted as an attractive alternative to chlorination for the disinfection of wastewater. In this study the effluent from Sahebgaranieh treatment plant was subjected to changes in UV transmission and turbidity in order to correlate these commonly measured parameters with the performance of a submerged -UV- reactor employed in disinfecting the effluent. Studies have shown successful performance of the reactor in disinfecting typical secondary effluents. Highly significant correlations are observed between TJV- transmission, turbidity, and the degree of coliforms inactivation which depend upon disinfection limit. Besides, the method was regarded suitable in disinfecting effluent samples, having suspended solids twice as much the discharge quality at disinfection detention time of 102 seconds. Average UV dosages ranged from 230 to 580 milliwatt - second per square centimeter.

  20. Hurricane Influences on Vegetation Community Change in Coastal Louisiana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steyer, Gregory D.; Cretini, Kari Foster; Piazza, Sarai C.; Sharp, Leigh A.; Snedden, Gregg A.; Sapkota, Sijan

    2010-01-01

    The impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 on wetland vegetation were investigated in Louisiana coastal marshes. Vegetation cover, pore-water salinity, and nutrients data from 100 marsh sites covering the entire Louisiana coast were sampled for two consecutive growing seasons after the storms. A mixed-model nested ANOVA with Tukey's HSD test for post-ANOVA multiple comparisons was used to analyze the data. Significantly (p<0.05) lower vegetation cover was observed within brackish and fresh marshes in the west as compared to the east and central regions throughout 2006, but considerable increase in vegetation cover was noticed in fall 2007 data. Marshes in the west were stressed by prolonged saltwater logging and increased sulfide content. High salinity levels persisted throughout the study period for all marsh types, especially in the west. The marshes of coastal Louisiana are still recovering after the hurricanes; however, changes in the species composition have increased in these marshes.

  1. The impacts of influence strategies on organizational subgroup members' evaluations of management accounting change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    F.H.M. Verbeeten

    2014-01-01

    This research project investigates how different influence strategies affect business unit managers’ and controllers’ evaluations of the success of a management accounting change (MAC). Using survey data on paired observations from managers and controllers in 68 business units, I find that influence

  2. The influence of planned-change context on the evaluation of natural landscapes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, AE; Vlek, CAJ

    1998-01-01

    The influence of planned-change context on evaluations of natural landscapes was examined in an experimental setting. Five landscape photographs, depicting one agrarian landscape and four natural landscapes with varying degrees of human influence, were either presented as 'five existing Dutch landsc

  3. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during extreme precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten;

    In this paper we present a methodology suitable for investigating the relative and combined influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of cities to pluvial flooding. A combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach enables the quantificatio...... during the past 30 years caused an increase in flood exposure that is comparable to what is expected in the RCP4.5 (+2°C) climate scenario....

  4. Transgenic animals resistant to infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiley, L

    2016-04-01

    The list of transgenic animals developed to test ways of producing livestock resistant to infectious disease continues to grow. Although the basic techniques for generating transgenic animals have not changed very much in the ten years since they were last reviewed for the World Organisation for Animal Health, one recent fundamental technological advance stands to revolutionise genome engineering. The advent of technically simple and efficient site-specific gene targeting has profound implications for genetically modifying livestock species.

  5. Predicting global variation in infectious disease severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Per Moestrup; de Fine Licht, Henrik Hjarvard

    2016-01-01

    Background and objectives: Understanding the underlying causes for the variation in case-fatality-ratios (CFR) is important for assessing the mechanism governing global disparity in the burden of infectious diseases. Variation in CFR is likely to be driven by factors such as population genetics...... to their biology. We suggest that the overall result reflects an interaction between the forces driving demographic change and the virulence of human-to-human transmitted diseases....

  6. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  7. Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

    2016-08-01

    Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

  8. 中国1990与2010年感染性疾病的疾病负担研究%The burden of infectious disease and changing pattern from in 1990 and 2010, China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    于石成; 周脉耕; 刘世炜; 李镒冲; 胡跃华; 葛辉

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate the burden of infectious disease of the Chinese population in 1990 and 2010 and changing pattern in the past 20 years. Methods Results of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010) were used to demonstrate the burden of infectious disease of the Chinese population in 1990 and 2010 and changing pattern from 1990 to 2010 by gender and age groups, including indicators of incidence, mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), disability⁃adjusted life years (DALY), and their age⁃standardized rates using data of the 2010 National Census as a standard population. Results In 1990 incidence, standardized incidence rate, mortality, standardized mortality rate, DALY, standardized DALY rate, YLL, standardized YLL rate, YLD, and standardized YLD rate of infectious disease in China were 3 067 469 200 cases, 242 669.34 cases/100 000, 824 300 cases, 72.27 cases/100 000, 58 937 700 person⁃years(PYRS), 3 992.85 PYRS/100 000, 46 504 100 PYRS, 2 932.99 PYRS/100 000, 12 433 600 PYRS, and 1 059.86 PYRS/100 000, respectively. All the aboved indicators were declined from 1990 to 2010, in 2010 they were 3 065 985 800 cases, 224 351.66 cases/100 000, 388 600 cases, 30.74 cases/100 000, 19 492 200 PYRS, 1 440.75 PYRS/100 000, 12 045 700 PYRS, 891.87 PYRS/100 000, 7 446 500 PYRS, and 548.89 PYRS/100 000, respectively. When 2010's indicators were compared to those in 1990, the rates of increase of incidence, incidence rate, mortality, mortality rate, DALY, DALY rate, YLL, YLL rate, YLD, and YLD rate were 56.84%,-9.85%,-33.07%,-61.54%,-27.68%,-58.42%,-32.46%,-61.17%,-16.75%, and-52.13%for 50-69 age group;for≥70 age group,57.90%,-5.86%, 7.41%, -36.12%, -5.00%, -43.51%, -5.14%,-43.59%, -4.52%, and-43.2%. Conclusions The burden of infectious disease of the Chinese population was declined from 1990 to 2010;however, the incidence of infectious disease was increased in≥50 age groups.%目的:分析1990

  9. Infectious diseases in end-stage liver disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Aneesh K; Lyon, G Marshall

    2010-09-01

    Patients with chronic liver diseases sustain impairment to immune systems, which worsens over time. These defects in their host defense lead to risks of bacterial infections and increased morbidity. Providers should have heightened surveillance for infectious diseases and suspect one with any acute change in status. Patient history may reveal rare infections and allow initiation of early appropriate therapy. There should be a low threshold for obtaining diagnostic cultures and peritoneal fluid samples and discussing possible causes with an infectious diseases consultant or a microbiology laboratory. These maneuvers will maximize therapy in patients at high risk for death due to infectious disease.

  10. Influence of snow cover changes on surface radiation and heat balance based on the WRF model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Lingxue; Liu, Tingxiang; Bu, Kun; Yang, Jiuchun; Chang, Liping; Zhang, Shuwen

    2016-07-01

    The snow cover extent in mid-high latitude areas of the Northern Hemisphere has significantly declined corresponding to the global warming, especially since the 1970s. Snow-climate feedbacks play a critical role in regulating the global radiation balance and influencing surface heat flux exchange. However, the degree to which snow cover changes affect the radiation budget and energy balance on a regional scale and the difference between snow-climate and land use/cover change (LUCC)-climate feedbacks have been rarely studied. In this paper, we selected Heilongjiang Basin, where the snow cover has changed obviously, as our study area and used the WRF model to simulate the influences of snow cover changes on the surface radiation budget and heat balance. In the scenario simulation, the localized surface parameter data improved the accuracy by 10 % compared with the control group. The spatial and temporal analysis of the surface variables showed that the net surface radiation, sensible heat flux, Bowen ratio, temperature and percentage of snow cover were negatively correlated and that the ground heat flux and latent heat flux were positively correlated with the percentage of snow cover. The spatial analysis also showed that a significant relationship existed between the surface variables and land cover types, which was not obviously as that for snow cover changes. Finally, six typical study areas were selected to quantitatively analyse the influence of land cover types beneath the snow cover on heat absorption and transfer, which showed that when the land was snow covered, the conversion of forest to farmland can dramatically influence the net radiation and other surface variables, whereas the snow-free land showed significantly reduced influence. Furthermore, compared with typical land cover changes, e.g., the conversion of forest into farmland, the influence of snow cover changes on net radiation and sensible heat flux were 60 % higher than that of land cover changes

  11. The Influences of the Chinese Modern Family Changes on the Socialization of Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chenggang; Liu, Dan

    2006-01-01

    This article mainly introduces the contemporary changes in Chinese family and especially analyses the transformation of family structure and type, family housing conditions, family relationship network, the relationship between husband and wife and parenthood. In addition, it discusses the influence of family changes in the socialization of…

  12. The Influence of British Social Changes on the Origin and Development of English

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    李莹

    2009-01-01

    Social changes are one of the main factors of the orion and development of a language.This author mainly analyzes the influence of British social changes on the origin and development of English from three periods in the history of English language.

  13. Influence of temperature on autogenous deformation and relative humidity change in hardening cement paste

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; Hansen, Per Freiesleben

    1999-01-01

    This paper deals with autogenous deformation and autogenous relative humidity change (RH change) in hardening cement paste. Theoretical considerations and experimental data are presented, which elucidate the influence of temperature on these properties. This is an important subject in the control...

  14. Infectious Diseases in the Homeless

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2008-08-26

    In this podcast, Ted Pestorius speaks with Dr. Marian McDonald, Associate Director for Minority and Women’s Health at CDC about an article in September 2008 issue of Emerging Infectious Diseases on infectious diseases in the homeless. There are an estimated 100 million homeless people worldwide today, and this number is likely to grow. The homeless population is vulnerable to many diseases, including HIV, hepatitis, and tuberculosis. Dr. McDonald discusses why this population is so vulnerable.  Created: 8/26/2008 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 8/27/2008.

  15. New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases

    OpenAIRE

    Christaki, Eirini

    2015-01-01

    Surveillance of emerging infectious diseases is vital for the early identification of public health threats. Emergence of novel infections is linked to human factors such as population density, travel and trade and ecological factors like climate change and agricultural practices. A wealth of new technologies is becoming increasingly available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens but also for the more accurate monitoring of infectious disease activity. Web-based surveillance to...

  16. Reasons for Journal Impact Factor Changes: Influence of Changing Source Items.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesslich, Tobias; Weineck, Silke B; Koelblinger, Dorothea

    2016-01-01

    Both the concept and the application of the impact factor (IF) have been subject to widespread critique, including concerns over its potential manipulation. This study provides a systematic analysis of significant journal Impact Factor changes, based on the relative contribution of either one or both variables of the IF equation (i.e. citations / articles as the numerator / denominator of the quotient). A cohort of JCR-listed journals which faced the most dramatic absolute IF changes between 2013 and 2014 (ΔIF ≥ 3.0, n = 49) was analyzed for the causes resulting in IF changes that theses journals have experienced in the last five years. Along with the variation by number of articles and citations, this analysis includes the relative change of both variables compared to each other and offers a classification of `valid`and `invalid`scenarios of IF variation in terms of the intended goal of the IF to measure journal quality. The sample cohort features a considerable incidence of IF increases (18%) which are qualified as `invalid`according to this classification because the IF increase is merely based on a favorably changing number of articles (denominator). The results of this analysis point out the potentially delusive effect of IF increases gained through effective shrinkage of publication output. Therefore, careful consideration of the details of the IF equation and possible implementation of control mechanisms versus the volatile factor of number of articles may help to improve the expressiveness of this metric.

  17. Reasons for Journal Impact Factor Changes: Influence of Changing Source Items

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Both the concept and the application of the impact factor (IF) have been subject to widespread critique, including concerns over its potential manipulation. This study provides a systematic analysis of significant journal Impact Factor changes, based on the relative contribution of either one or both variables of the IF equation (i.e. citations / articles as the numerator / denominator of the quotient). A cohort of JCR-listed journals which faced the most dramatic absolute IF changes between 2013 and 2014 (ΔIF ≥ 3.0, n = 49) was analyzed for the causes resulting in IF changes that theses journals have experienced in the last five years. Along with the variation by number of articles and citations, this analysis includes the relative change of both variables compared to each other and offers a classification of `valid`and `invalid`scenarios of IF variation in terms of the intended goal of the IF to measure journal quality. The sample cohort features a considerable incidence of IF increases (18%) which are qualified as `invalid`according to this classification because the IF increase is merely based on a favorably changing number of articles (denominator). The results of this analysis point out the potentially delusive effect of IF increases gained through effective shrinkage of publication output. Therefore, careful consideration of the details of the IF equation and possible implementation of control mechanisms versus the volatile factor of number of articles may help to improve the expressiveness of this metric. PMID:27105434

  18. Multiple sclerosis after infectious mononucleosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Trine Rasmussen; Rostgaard, Klaus; Nielsen, Nete Munk

    2007-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Infectious mononucleosis caused by the Epstein-Barr virus has been associated with increased risk of multiple sclerosis. However, little is known about the characteristics of this association. OBJECTIVE: To assess the significance of sex, age at and time since infectious mononucleosis......, and attained age to the risk of developing multiple sclerosis after infectious mononucleosis. DESIGN: Cohort study using persons tested serologically for infectious mononucleosis at Statens Serum Institut, the Danish Civil Registration System, the Danish National Hospital Discharge Register, and the Danish...... Multiple Sclerosis Registry. SETTING: Statens Serum Institut. PATIENTS: A cohort of 25 234 Danish patients with mononucleosis was followed up for the occurrence of multiple sclerosis beginning on April 1, 1968, or January 1 of the year after the diagnosis of mononucleosis or after a negative Paul...

  19. 不同感染性疾病对女性性功能影响的临床研究%The influence of different infectious diseases on female sexual function

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    夏亚娣; 方雅琴; 孙芸; 王华

    2015-01-01

    目的:探讨不同感染性疾病对女性性功能的影响以及干预方法,改善女性性功能状况。方法:选取女性泌尿生殖系感染性疾病患者406例,根据感染部位分为阴道炎183例、宫颈炎99例、盆腔炎87例、STDs 37例,采用《国际女性性功能评估量表》对406例女性性功能进行评价,统计四组患者性功能障碍发生率以及3个月内性高潮频率。且将其中性功能障碍患者随机分为 A、B 两组各65例,A 组积极治疗炎症,B 组在 A 组基础上给予心理疏导。结果:STDs 及阴道炎患者性欲、性唤起、性生活频率、性生活接受度、性高潮、性关系满意度、性行为症状出现得分均明显低于宫颈炎和盆腔炎患者;阴道炎和 STDs 患者有性功能障碍发生率、3个月内无性高潮患者比例均明显高于宫颈炎和盆腔炎患者,两组比较差异有统计学意义(P <0.05)。A、B 两组性功能障碍患者在自身年龄、伴侣年龄、性生活年限、分娩次数方面无明显差异,经过干预,A 组患者性功能障碍17例(26.15%),B 组患者10例(15.38%),A 组患者没有性高潮者12例(18.46%),B 组7例(10.77%),两组差异有统计学意义(P <0.05)。结论:阴道炎及 STDs 患者相较于其他感染性疾病更容易影响性功能,在积极治疗感染的同时给予患者心理干预,有利于改善患者性功能。%Objectives:To investigate the influence of different infectious diseases and interventions on fe-male sexual function to improve female sexual function.Methods:406 patients with infectious diseases of female u-rogenital system were selected.According to the site of infection,there were 183 cases of vaginitis,99 cases of cer-vicitis,87 cases of pelvic inflammatory disease and 37 cases of STDs.The International Female Sexual Function As-sessment Scale was used to evaluate female sexual function.The incidence of sexual

  20. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  1. Well-being & psychological distress : genetic and environmental influences on stability, change, and covariance

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    An important goal to psychological research is to advance knowledge on development and sustenance of positive mental health. This study is the first large scale twin study investigating the genetic and environmental influences on stability and change in both psychological well-being and distress during the developmental juncture of young adulthood. The study also aims to illuminate the extent to which genetic and environmental influences on indicators of well-being and distress are overlappin...

  2. Influence of climate change on the water resources in an alpine region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Toffol, S; Engelhard, C; Rauch, W

    2008-01-01

    It is widely accepted that the global warming will impact on water resources. This study investigates the possible influence of climate change on the water resources in an alpine region. A description of the actual situation with emphasis on the water resources from the one side and on the water consuming factors, here called stressors, is given. The probable effects of climate change in the region and their influence on its water resources are then described. The main outcome is that in the analysed region the climate change will rather have positive influence on the water balance by inducing higher precipitations during the rivers' natural low flow period (winter). This outcome contradicts many common predictions, however, this due to the specifics induced by the alpine nature of the catchment.

  3. Assessing the Influence of Precipitation on Diurnal Temperature Range Changes: Implications for Climate Change Projection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van den Hoof, C.; Garreaud, R.

    2014-12-01

    In this study, we investigate up to what extent the spatial heterogeneity in the projected changes in DTR during the rest of the 21st century (under several emission scenarios) is explained by the regional variability in projected precipitation changes. DTR is indeed a suitable index of climate variability and change [1] and several studies have highlighted the existence of a negative correlation with both the cloud cover and the precipitation rate over land throughout last century [2]. Precipitation reduces DTR mainly by decreasing surface solar radiation through increased cloud cover and by increasing daytime surface evaporative cooling through increased soil moisture content. Whether or not these processes are captured in the current generation of global and regional models is matter of research. To achieve our objective, we make use of the climate projections made available by the CMIP5 project as well as their historical runs, along with reanalysis and station data. At inter-annual timescale, the seasonal mean DTR simulated by an ensemble of CMIP5 models for the last decades shows a negative relationship over land with the simulated precipitation at zero lag. The correlation is globally very strong except during winter at higher latitudes. This corresponds well with the correlations observed in the re-analysis datasets. Some spatial variability in correlation strength is however noticeable between both datasets. Concerning the projected changes, the negative correlation between DTR and precipitation does not hold globally; no correlation or even positive correlations are observed in different climate regions, including Northern South America and Central Europe. Within this study we will further investigate the physical process that could explain this change in correlation sign as well as the reason why positive correlations are rarely observed or simulated at inter-annual timescale under current climate during summer and at lower latitudes during winter. [1] K

  4. Re-emergence of Chikungunya and other scourges: the role of globalization and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rezza, Giovanni

    2008-01-01

    Globalization and climate change are important phenomena in a changing world. To date, only the effect of globalisation on infectious diseases, from vector-borne to respiratory infections, has been well established. The influence of cyclic natural climatic events and local variations in temperature and precipitation has also been recognised; however, there is still no conclusive evidence of an effect of global warming on infectious disease patterns.

  5. Changes in social relations in old age. Are they influenced by functional ability?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Kirsten; Due, Pernille; Holstein, Bjørn Evald;

    2002-01-01

    The aims of this article were to describe changes in social relations from ages 75 to 80, and analyze whether changes in social relations are influenced by functional ability at age 75. The study includes data from the NORA follow-up study of 75-80 year-old men and women in Jyväskylä (Finland...... for help in Physical Activities of Daily Living (PADL). Depressive symptoms, living alone and locality were included as covariates in the multivariate analyses. There were large changes in social relations in old age, but the changes included widely varying patterns of losses and gains among...

  6. New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christaki, Eirini

    2015-01-01

    Surveillance of emerging infectious diseases is vital for the early identification of public health threats. Emergence of novel infections is linked to human factors such as population density, travel and trade and ecological factors like climate change and agricultural practices. A wealth of new technologies is becoming increasingly available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens but also for the more accurate monitoring of infectious disease activity. Web-based surveillance tools and epidemic intelligence methods, used by all major public health institutions, are intended to facilitate risk assessment and timely outbreak detection. In this review, we present new methods for regional and global infectious disease surveillance and advances in epidemic modeling aimed to predict and prevent future infectious diseases threats.

  7. Electronic tools for infectious diseases and microbiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burdette, Steven D

    2007-11-01

    Electronic tools for infectious diseases and medical microbiology have the ability to change the way the diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases are approached. Medical information today has the ability to be dynamic, keeping up with the latest research or clinical issues, instead of being static and years behind, as many textbooks are. The ability to rapidly disseminate information around the world opens up the possibility of communicating with people thousands of miles away to quickly and efficiently learn about emerging infections. Electronic tools have expanded beyond the desktop computer and the Internet, and now include personal digital assistants and other portable devices such as cellular phones. These pocket-sized devices have the ability to provide access to clinical information at the point of care. New electronic tools include e-mail listservs, electronic drug databases and search engines that allow focused clinical questions. The goal of the present article is to provide an overview of how electronic tools can impact infectious diseases and microbiology, while providing links and resources to allow users to maximize their efficiency in accessing this information. Links to the mentioned Web sites and programs are provided along with other useful electronic tools.

  8. The Influences of the Chinese Modern Family Changes on the Socialization of Children

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Chenggang; Liu Dan

    2006-01-01

    This article mainly introduces the contemporary changes in Chinese family and especially analyses the transformation of family structure and type,family housing conditions,family relationship network.the relationship between husband and wife and parenthood.In addition,it discusses the influence of family changes in the soeialization of children.Then it expounds the new transformation in children's socialization because of family,school,mass media,etc.Finally,it discusses its challenge and reflection to family and pedagogue.

  9. Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method

    OpenAIRE

    Andrews, O. D.; Bindoff, N. L.; P. R. Halloran; Ilyina, T.; Quéré, C.

    2013-01-01

    Ocean deoxygenation has been observed in all major ocean basins over the past 50 yr. Although this signal is largely consistent with oxygen changes expected from anthropogenic climate change, the contribution of external forcing to recent deoxygenation trends relative to natural internal variability is yet to be established. Here we conduct a formal optimal fingerprinting analysis to investigate if external forcing has had a detectable influence on observed dissolved oxygen ...

  10. Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method

    OpenAIRE

    Andrews, O. D.; Bindoff, N. L.; P. R. Halloran; Ilyina, T.; Le Quéré, C.

    2012-01-01

    Ocean deoxygenation has been observed in all major ocean basins over the past 50 yr. Although this signal is largely consistent with oxygen changes expected from anthropogenic climate change, the contribution of external forcing to recent deoxygenation trends relative to natural internal variability is yet to be established. Here we conduct a formal optimal fingerprinting analysis to investigate if external forcing has had a detectable influence on observed dissolved oxygen concentration ([O&...

  11. The influence of national leader change on corruption and sovereign rating

    OpenAIRE

    Kuei-Yuan Wang; Sheng-Min Tu

    2014-01-01

    Corruption is a critical social and ethical problem that can impede the economic growth of a country or even ruin a country. In addition, the importance of the sovereign rating of a country cannot be underestimated. A change in the sovereign rating of a country can affect its borrowing capacity. Using members of the United Nations from 1995 to 2012 as the research sample, this study investigated the influence of national leader change on corruption and sovereign rating by analyzing one year a...

  12. DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSTICS OF INFECTIOUS EXANTHEMAS IN CHILDREN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Yu. Ovsyannikov

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The lecture is devoted to the problem of differential diagnosis of infectious exanthemas in children. Information about differential-diagnostic sings of infectious and non-infectious exanthemas is present. Differential diagnosis is proposed on the basis of morphological elements identified in objective research. Presents possible infectious and non-infectious causes of rashes which are characterized by different primary (spot, papula, blister, knob, knot, bubble, abscess, bladder and secondary (scale, erosion, ulcer morphological elements.

  13. DIFFERENTIAL DIAGNOSTICS OF INFECTIOUS EXANTHEMAS IN CHILDREN

    OpenAIRE

    D. Yu. Ovsyannikov

    2015-01-01

    The lecture is devoted to the problem of differential diagnosis of infectious exanthemas in children. Information about differential-diagnostic sings of infectious and non-infectious exanthemas is present. Differential diagnosis is proposed on the basis of morphological elements identified in objective research. Presents possible infectious and non-infectious causes of rashes which are characterized by different primary (spot, papula, blister, knob, knot, bubble, abscess, bladder) and seconda...

  14. Geophysical features influence the climate change sensitivity of northern Wisconsin pine and oak forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tweiten, Michael A; Calcote, Randy R; Lynch, Elizabeth A; Hotchkiss, Sara C; Schuurman, Gregor W

    2015-10-01

    Landscape-scale vulnerability assessment from multiple sources, including paleoecological site histories, can inform climate change adaptation. We used an array of lake sediment pollen and charcoal records to determine how soils and landscape factors influenced the variability of forest composition change over the past 2000 years. The forests in this study are located in northwestern Wisconsin on a sandy glacial outwash plain. Soils and local climate vary across the study area. We used the Natural Resource Conservation Service's Soil Survey Geographic soil database and published fire histories to characterize differences in soils and fire history around each lake site. Individual site histories differed in two metrics of past vegetation dynamics: the extent to which white pine (Pinus strobus) increased during the Little Ice Age (LIA) climate period and the volatility in the rate of change between samples at 50-120 yr intervals. Greater increases of white pine during the LIA occurred on sites with less sandy soils (R² = 0.45, P climate (R² = 0.55, P change between samples was positively associated with LIA fire frequency (R² = 0.41, P change and rate-of-change volatility were associated with higher fire frequency. Over longer (multi-centennial) time frames, forest composition change, especially increased white pine, shifted most in sites with more soil moisture. Our results show that responsiveness of forest composition to climate change was influenced by soils, local climate, and fire. The anticipated climatic changes in the next century will not produce the same community dynamics on the same soil types as in the past, but understanding past dynamics and relationships can help us assess how novel factors and combinations of factors in the future may influence various site types. Our results support climate change adaptation efforts to monitor and conserve the landscape's full range of geophysical features.

  15. IDBD: infectious disease biomarker database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, In Seok; Ryu, Chunsun; Cho, Ki Joon; Kim, Jin Kwang; Ong, Swee Hoe; Mitchell, Wayne P; Kim, Bong Su; Oh, Hee-Bok; Kim, Kyung Hyun

    2008-01-01

    Biomarkers enable early diagnosis, guide molecularly targeted therapy and monitor the activity and therapeutic responses across a variety of diseases. Despite intensified interest and research, however, the overall rate of development of novel biomarkers has been falling. Moreover, no solution is yet available that efficiently retrieves and processes biomarker information pertaining to infectious diseases. Infectious Disease Biomarker Database (IDBD) is one of the first efforts to build an easily accessible and comprehensive literature-derived database covering known infectious disease biomarkers. IDBD is a community annotation database, utilizing collaborative Web 2.0 features, providing a convenient user interface to input and revise data online. It allows users to link infectious diseases or pathogens to protein, gene or carbohydrate biomarkers through the use of search tools. It supports various types of data searches and application tools to analyze sequence and structure features of potential and validated biomarkers. Currently, IDBD integrates 611 biomarkers for 66 infectious diseases and 70 pathogens. It is publicly accessible at http://biomarker.cdc.go.kr and http://biomarker.korea.ac.kr.

  16. Climate changes influence free-living stages of soil-transmitted parasites of European rabbits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernandez, Alexander D; Poole, Adam; Cattadori, Isabella M

    2013-04-01

    Climate warming has been suggested to augment the risk of infectious disease outbreaks by extending the seasonal window for parasite growth and by increasing the rate of transmission. Understanding how this occurs in parasite-host systems is important for appreciating long-term and seasonal changes in host exposure to infection and to reduce species extinction caused by diseases. We investigated how free-living stages of two soil-transmitted helminths of the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) responded to experimental changes in temperature by performing laboratory experiments with environmental chambers and field manipulations using open-top-chambers. This study was motivated by our previous observations that air temperature has increased over the last 30 years in our field site and that during this period intensity of infection of Graphidium strigosum but not Trichostrongylus retortaeformis was positively associated with this temperature increase. Laboratory and field experiments showed that both parasites accelerated egg development and increased hatching rate and larval survival in response to accumulating thermal energy. Both parasites behaved similarly when exposed to diverse temperature regimes, decadal trends, and monthly fluctuations, however, T. retortaeformis was more successful than G. strigosum by showing higher rates of egg hatching and larval survival. Across the months, the first day of hatching occurred earlier in warmer conditions suggesting that climate warming can lengthen the period of parasite growth and host exposure to infective stages. Also, T. retortaeformis hatched earlier than G. strigosum. These findings showed that seasonal changes in intensity, frequency, and duration of daily temperature are important causes of variability in egg hatching and larva survival. Overall, this study emphasizes the important role of climate warming and seasonality on the dynamics of free-living stages in soil-transmitted helminths and their

  17. Do weather changes influence pain levels in women with fibromyalgia, and can psychosocial variables moderate these influences?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smedslund, Geir; Eide, Hilde; Kristjansdottir, Ólöf Birna; Nes, Andrea Aparecida Gonçalves; Sexton, Harold; Fors, Egil A.

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the association between fibromyalgia pain and weather, and to investigate whether psychosocial factors influence this relationship. Women with chronic widespread pain/fibromyalgia ( N = 50) enrolled in a larger study, were recruited from a 4-week inpatient rehabilitation program in Norway ( 2009-2010), and reported their pain and psychological factors up to three times per day (morning, afternoon, evening) for 5 weeks. These ratings were then related to the official local weather parameters. Barometric pressure recorded simultaneously impacted pain significantly while temperature, relative humidity, and solar flux did not. No psychological variables influenced the weather-pain interaction. No weather parameter predicted change in the subsequent pain measures. The magnitude of the inverse association between pain and barometric pressure was very small, and none of the psychological variables studied influenced the association between pain and barometric pressure. All in all, the evidence for a strong weather-pain association in fibromyalgia seems limited at best.

  18. The Alliance in Couple Therapy: Partner Influence, Early Change, and Alliance Patterns in a Naturalistic Sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anker, Morten G.; Owen, Jesse; Duncan, Barry L.; Sparks, Jacqueline A.

    2010-01-01

    Objective: The purpose of this study was to explore the relationship between the alliance and outcome in couple therapy and examine whether the alliance predicted outcomes over and above early change. The authors also investigated partner influence and gender and sought to identify couple alliance patterns that predicted couple outcomes. Method:…

  19. Social and Linguistic Factors' Influences on Semantic Change in English Vocabulary

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    涂宇明

    2009-01-01

    this paper aims to analyze the social and linguistic factors' influence on semantic change in Eng~a vocabulary. Mainly speaking, the social factors include social development, social context, social class, national feeling, racial feeling, gender different, and social value, and lin-guistic factors consist of generalization, specialization, amelioration. pejoration, metaphor and metonymy.

  20. Changes in dynamics processes of the muscles’ traction under influence of stress-factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. M. Nozdrenko

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Change of fibers’ dynamic parameters of the frog Rana temporaria skeletal muscle m. tibialis traction under influence of modulated stimulation and aluminium chloride solutions was studied. At 10-4,5·10-4 and 10‑3 M·l-1 concentrations of aluminium chloride the nonlinear decrease of the muscle fibers’ traction parameters was observed.

  1. Understanding the Influence of Organizational Culture and Group Dynamics on Organizational Change and Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Colleen; Kline, Theresa

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between organizational culture, group dynamics, and organizational learning in the context of organizational change. Design/methodology/approach: A case study was used to examine cultural and group level factors that potentially influence groups' learning in the context of…

  2. Social and Economic Influences in Curriculum Change in Japan: Case History of Environmental Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shimazu, Yasuo

    1981-01-01

    Surveys social, economic and environmental characteristics of Japan in the 1960s and 1970s and describes their influence on curriculum changes in secondary science education. Discusses Japanese attitudes towards nature as a foundation for environmental education, the impact of western culture on this attitude, and the future of environmental…

  3. Limitations on Change: Current Conditions Influencing Academic Intransigence in Educational Administration Programs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Connie Stokes; Pounder, Diana G.

    An analysis of academic intransigence (resistance to change) in educational administrative preparation programs is presented in this paper. Drawing upon two conceptual frameworks, the stakeholder perspective and Porter's (1980) five-force model of industry structure and competitive influence, two factors contributing to academic intransigence are…

  4. 儿童传染性单核细胞增多症T细胞亚群变化%The change of T-lymphocyte subgroup in children with infectious mononucleosis

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    杨素红; 冯俊杰; 马爱钟

    2012-01-01

    目的 探讨传染性单核细胞增多症(infectious mononucleosis,IM)患儿T细胞亚群的变化.方法 选取2005年1月至2010年12月在我院住院确诊为Epstein-Barr( EB)病毒感染引起的IM患儿60例为IM组,同期来我院门诊健康体检患儿36例为对照组.所有患儿行血常规、血涂片、T细胞亚群、肝肾功能及病毒抗体、肝炎病毒抗体检测.T细胞亚群检测包括CD3、CD4、CD8、CD4/CD8.结果 与对照组比较,IM组患儿CD3( 81.55%±9.04%)、CD8 (58.13%±13.35%)比例较对照组(53.58%±5.97%)、(31.22%±8.72%)明显升高(P<0.05);CD4( 18.19%±7.61%)、CD4/CD8(0.37±0.33)比值较对照组(36.98%±5.32%、1.98±0.41)明显降低(P<0.05).IM组患儿白细胞计数、异型淋巴细胞比值及谷丙转氨酶与CD4/CD8的下降无相关性(P均>0.05).结论 EB病毒感染引起IM患儿免疫功能显著低下,可早期进行免疫干预治疗.%Objective To investigate the change of T-lymphocyte subgroup in children with infectious mononucleosis (IM).Methods Sixty young children with IM caused by Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) were recruited for this study in Jiaxing First Hospital from Jan 2005 to Dec 2010.Thirty-six normal children were chosen as control group.Both of the two groups were detected blood test,blood smear,T-lymphocyte subgroup ( including CD3,CD4,CD8,CD4/CD8 ),liver and kidney function test,IgM antibodies of EBV,cytomegalovirus,adenovirus,and hepatitis virus.Results Compared with the control group (53.58% ± 5.97%,31.22%±8.72% ),the ratio of CD3 (81.55% ±9.04% ) and CD8(58.13% ± 13.35% ) were significantly higher in IM group( P <0.05 ).And the ratio of CD4 ( 18.19% ± 7.61% ) and CD4/CD8 (0.37 ± 0.33) were significantly lower in IM group,compared with the control group (36.98% ± 5.32%,1.98 ± 0.41 )(P < 0.05 ).While the leukocyte count,the ratio of abnormal leukomonocyte,and alanine transaminase had no correlation with the decrease of CD4

  5. Changes in Climatic Factors Influencing the Growth Period of Corn in Fengjie County

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Xiaozhen; MAO; Xinli; MOU; Chen; MA; Jiang; HUANG; Lin; YUAN

    2014-01-01

    Under the background of global climate change,we analyze the change tendency of average temperature and amount of precipitation influencing the corn’s growth period. The results show that from March to August,the monthly temperatures show an upward trend,but the rise is different in different months,and the maximum temperature rise is in May. Precipitation in different months has different trends. Climate change brings about favorable conditions at high altitudes in Fengjie,reduces production due to the temperature drop after the beginning of autumn,and increases the pressure on the corn supply.

  6. Patterns and processes influencing helminth parasites of Arctic coastal communities during climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galaktionov, K V

    2017-03-22

    This review analyses the scarce available data on biodiversity and transmission of helminths in Arctic coastal ecosystems and the potential impact of climate changes on them. The focus is on the helminths of seabirds, dominant parasites in coastal ecosystems. Their fauna in the Arctic is depauperate because of the lack of suitable intermediate hosts and unfavourable conditions for species with free-living larvae. An increasing proportion of crustaceans in the diet of Arctic seabirds would result in a higher infection intensity of cestodes and acanthocephalans, and may also promote the infection of seabirds with non-specific helminths. In this way, the latter may find favourable conditions for colonization of new hosts. Climate changes may alter the composition of the helminth fauna, their infection levels in hosts and ways of transmission in coastal communities. Immigration of boreal invertebrates and fish into Arctic seas may allow the circulation of helminths using them as intermediate hosts. Changing migratory routes of animals would alter the distribution of their parasites, facilitating, in particular, their trans-Arctic transfer. Prolongation of the seasonal 'transmission window' may increase the parasitic load on host populations. Changes in Arctic marine food webs would have an overriding influence on the helminths' circulation. This process may be influenced by the predicted decreased of salinity in Arctic seas, increased storm activity, coastal erosion, ocean acidification, decline of Arctic ice, etc. Greater parasitological research efforts are needed to assess the influence of factors related to Arctic climate change on the transmission of helminths.

  7. Regime change thresholds in flute-like instruments: influence of the mouth pressure dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Terrien, Soizic; Vergez, Christophe; Fabre, Benoît

    2014-01-01

    Since they correspond to a jump from a given note to another one, the mouth pressure thresholds leading to regime changes are particularly important quantities in flute-like instruments. In this paper, a comparison of such thresholds between an artificial mouth, an experienced flutist and a non player is provided. It highlights the ability of the experienced player to considerabily shift regime change thresholds, and thus to enlarge its control in terms of nuances and spectrum. Based on recent works on other wind instruments and on the theory of dynamic bifurcations, the hypothe- sis is tested experimentally and numerically that the dynamics of the blowing pressure influences regime change thresholds. The results highlight the strong influence of this parameter on thresholds, suggesting its wide use by experienced musicians. Starting from these observations and from an analysis of a physical model of flute-like instruments, involving numerical continuation methods and Floquet stability analysis, a phenomenolo...

  8. The effects of radioactive pollution on the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morley, N J

    2012-04-01

    The interactions between infectious diseases and chemical pollution are well known and recognised as important factors in regulating the way wild animals respond to contaminant exposure. However, the impact of ionising radiation and radionuclides has often been overlooked when assessing host-pathogen interactions in polluted habitats, despite often occurring together with chemical contamination. Nevertheless, a comprehensive body of literature exists from laboratory and field studies on host-pathogen relationships under radiation exposure, and with a renewed interest in radioecology developing; an evaluation of infectious disease dynamics under these conditions would be timely. The present study assesses the impact of external ionising radiation and radionuclides on animal hosts and pathogens (viruses, bacteria, protozoans, helminths, arthropods) in laboratory studies and collates the data from field studies, including the large number of investigations undertaken after the Chernobyl accident. It is apparent that radiation exposure has substantial effects on host-pathogen relationships. Although damage to the host immune system is a major factor other variables, such as damage to host tissue barriers and inhibition of pathogen viability are also important in affecting the prevalence and intensity of parasitic diseases. Field studies indicate that the occurrence of host-pathogen associations in radioactively contaminated sites is complex with a variety of biotic and abiotic factors influencing both pathogen and host(s), resulting in changes to the dynamics of infectious diseases.

  9. Spatial heterogeneity, nonlinear dynamics and chaos in infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grenfell, B T; Kleczkowski, A; Gilligan, C A; Bolker, B M

    1995-06-01

    There is currently considerable interest in the role of nonlinear phenomena in the population dynamics of infectious diseases. Childhood diseases such as measles are particularly well documented dynamically, and have recently been the subject of analyses (of both models and notification data) to establish whether the pattern of epidemics is chaotic. Though the spatial dynamics of measles have also been extensively studied, spatial and nonlinear dynamics have only recently been brought together. The present review concentrates mainly on describing this synthesis. We begin with a general review of the nonlinear dynamics of measles models, in a spatially homogeneous environment. Simple compartmental models (specifically the SEIR model) can behave chaotically, under the influence of strong seasonal 'forcing' of infection rate associated with patterns of schooling. However, adding observed heterogeneities such as age structure can simplify the deterministic dynamics back to limit cycles. By contrast all current strongly seasonally forced stochastic models show large amplitude irregular fluctuations, with many more 'fadeouts' of infection that is observed in real communities of similar size. This indicates that (social and/or geographical) spatial heterogeneity is needed in the models. We review the exploration of this problem with nonlinear spatiotemporal models. The few studies to date indicate that spatial heterogeneity can help to increase the realism of models. However, a review of nonlinear analyses of spatially subdivided measles data show that more refinements of the models (particularly in representing the impact of human demographic changes on infection dynamics) are required. We conclude with a discussion of the implication of these results for the dynamics of infectious diseases in general and, in particular, the possibilities of cross fertilization between human disease epidemiology and the study of plant and animal diseases.

  10. Influences of recent climate change and human activities on water storage variations in Central Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Haijun; Chen, Yaning

    2017-01-01

    Terrestrial water storage (TWS) change is an indicator of climate change. Therefore, it is helpful to understand how climate change impacts water systems. In this study, the influence of climate change on TWS in Central Asia over the past decade was analyzed using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites and Climatic Research Unit datasets. Results indicate that TWS experienced a decreasing trend in Central Asia from 2003 to 2013 at a rate of -4.44 ± 2.2 mm/a, and that the maximum positive anomaly for TWS (46 mm) occurred in July 2005, while the minimum negative anomaly (-32.5 mm) occurred in March 2008-August 2009. The decreasing trend of TWS in northern Central Asia (-3.86 ± 0.63 mm/a) is mainly attributed to soil moisture storage depletion, which is driven primarily by the increase in evapotranspiration. In the mountainous regions, climate change exerted an influence on TWS by affecting glaciers and snow cover change. However, human activities are now the dominant factor driving the decline of TWS in the Aral Sea region and the northern Tarim River Basin.

  11. Videos Influence Behavior Change Measures for Voice and Speech in Individuals with Parkinson's Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopf, Lisa M; Graetzer, Simone; Huh, Jina

    2015-10-01

    The majority of individuals with Parkinson's disease (PD) experience voice and speech difficulties at some point over the course of the disease. Voice therapy has been found to help improve voice and speech in individuals with PD, but the majority of these individuals do not enroll in voice therapy. The purpose of this study was to determine whether watching short videos about voice symptoms and treatment in Parkinson's disease influences readiness to change, stages of change, and self-efficacy in individuals with PD. Eight individuals with PD participated in the study. Fifteen videos were chosen, three representing each of the five stages of change. We chose videos from YouTube that represented variety in speakers, content, and genre. We found that readiness to change significantly increased after watching videos, suggesting that watching videos helped these individuals move closer to actively improving their voice and speech. In addition, five of the eight participants showed forward movement in stages of change. Finally, self-efficacy demonstrated a positive trend following video watching. Overall, our results demonstrate that watching videos available on the internet can influence individuals with Parkinson's disease in changing vocal behavior. Implications for future wireless health applications are described.

  12. 75 FR 24835 - Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-05-06

    ... healthcare and social assistance sector as a whole had 16.5 million employees.\\1\\ Healthcare workplaces can... that dealt with the negative impact of non-compliance with hand hygiene on the transmission of... on occupationally-acquired infectious diseases (e.g., Federal, State, provider network, or...

  13. Influence of Barometric Pressure Changes on Ventilation Conditions in Deep Mines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wasilewski, Stanisław

    2014-10-01

    Barometric air pressure and its changes have a critical impact on ventilation conditions in the underground workings of deep mines. Changes in pressure are particularly important because they are responsible for the transient states of ventilation conditions, therefore, assessing the scale of pressure change is essential. Unfortunately, previously for many years in the Polish mining industry barometric pressure was recorded only on tapes of mechanical barographs by the ventilation department on the surface and therefore such dependencies of methane concentration due to barometric pressure changes have not been properly documented. Today, after the implementation in mines of instruments enabling the monitoring of absolute pressure in the workings of mines (Wasilewski, 2009) the conditions have been created to study the influence of pressure changes on changes of air parameters in the mine workings. Barometric pressure changes were observed and recorded over a course of approximately two years using monitoring system that utilized high accuracy pressure sensors on the surface and in selected workings of an underground mine. This paper presents a statistical analysis of the data that we generated from assessing pressure changes on the surface and at selected underground points in the mine. In the article, which presents the results of the first part of the study, some examples of when significant changes in pressure prior to the tragic events, which were not accompanied by changes in the methane concentration in mine workings, will also be shown. Interestingly, we found that the relationship between methane ignitions and explosions in longwall gob mined via the cave-in method is associated with changes in the barometric pressure. Several instances of methane ignitions and explosions in the gob of cave-in longwalls in recent years were compared with background barometric pressure changes. Research carried out in within the strategic project "Improving work safety in

  14. Distribution of pathogen and change of hepatase in childhood-onset infectious mononucleosis%传染性单核细胞增多症患儿病原体的分布及肝酶的变化

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陶洪群; 温怀凯; 谢奇朋

    2012-01-01

    目的:观察传染性单核细胞增多症(IM)患儿病原体分布情况及肝酶的变化.方法:分析170例初诊IM患儿EB病毒和TORCH中IgM抗体阳性分布情况及血清丙氨酸氨基转移酶(ALT)、天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶(AST)的水平.结果:170例IM患儿,9例未检出病原体IgM抗体,30例检出1种病原体IgM抗体,131例检出2种或2种以上病原体IgM抗体.IM患儿血清ALT、AST升高,B、C、D、E组明显高于A组(P<0.05),B、C、D和E组之问无明显差异(P>0.05).结论:IM可由多种病原体感染引起,以混合感染为主,尤其是EB病毒与巨细胞病毒、单纯疱疹病毒的混合感染.病原体IgM抗体阳性的IM患儿血清肝酶明显高于病原体IgM抗体阴性者,但与病原体IgM抗体阳性种类的多少无关.%Objective: To observe the distribution of pathogen and change of hepatase in childhood -onset infectious mononucleosis ( IM). Methods: Distribution of IgM antibodies, levels of ALT and AST in EB virus and TORCH of 170 IM patients were analyzed. Results: In all of the 170 patients, 9 of them were not found IgM antibody, 30 of them had one kind of IgM antibodies, 131 patients had two or more kinds of IgM antibodies. The levels of ALT and AST were significantly higher in IM patients. In group B, C, D and E, the levels of ALT and AST were significantly higher than those in group A. But there was no significant difference between group B, C, D and group E. Conclusion:IM can be caused by many pathogens, especially mixed infection of EB virus and cytomegalovirus ( CMV) or herpes simple virus( HSV) . Level of hepatase in IM patients with IgM antibody positive was higher than that in those negative cases, which had no correlation to the types of IgM antibodies.

  15. [INFLAMMATION AND CARDIAC INSUFFICIENCY ASSOCIATED WITH INFECTIOUS ENDOCARDITIS].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedorova, T A; Tazina, S Ya; Kaktursky, L V; Kanareitseva, T D; Stefanenko, N I; Burtsev, V I; Semenenko, N A

    2016-01-01

    The study included 62 patients with uncomplicated primary and secondary infectious endocarditis admitted to S.PBotkin city hospital from 2011 to 2014. The emphasis is laid on diagnostic significance of dynamic measurements of the levels of C-reactive protein, tumour necrosis factor and highly sensitive troponin-1 for the evaluation of activity of the infectious/toxic process, severity of the disease, and detection of complications. The study revealed the relationship of the enhanced level of troponin-1 with changes of inflammation markers, morphofunctional characteristics of myocardium, and circulatory failure. Morphologicl study demonstrated inflammatory and dystrophic changes in myocardium, focal and diffuse cardiofibrosis suggesting development of non-coronarogenic myocardial lesions that play an important role in the progress of cardiac failure associated with infectious endocarditis.

  16. Influence of the management strategy model on estimating water system performance under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hendrickx, Frederic

    2015-04-01

    The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for. Management models are therefore often a crude representation of the real system and they only approximate its performance. Estimated performance changes are expected to depend on the management model used, but this is often not assessed. This communication analyzes the influence of the management strategy representation on the performance of an Alpine reservoir (Serre-Ponçon, South-East of France) for which irrigation supply, hydropower generation and recreational activities are the main objectives. We consider three ways to construct the strategy named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). System performance is estimated for an ensemble of future hydro-meteorological projections obtained in the RIWER2030 research project (http://www.lthe.fr/RIWER2030/) from a suite of climate experiments from the EU - ENSEMBLES research project. Our results show that changes in system performance is much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the choice of strategy modeling. They also show that a simple strategy representation (i.e. clear-sighted management) leads to similar estimates of performance modifications than those obtained with a representation supposedly closer to real world (i.e. the far-sighted management). The Short-Sighted management approach lead to significantly different results, especially

  17. Entering adolescence: resistance to peer influence, risky behavior, and neural changes in emotion reactivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeifer, Jennifer H; Masten, Carrie L; Moore, William E; Oswald, Tasha M; Mazziotta, John C; Iacoboni, Marco; Dapretto, Mirella

    2011-03-10

    Adolescence is often described as a period of heightened reactivity to emotions paired with reduced regulatory capacities, a combination suggested to contribute to risk-taking and susceptibility to peer influence during puberty. However, no longitudinal research has definitively linked these behavioral changes to underlying neural development. Here, 38 neurotypical participants underwent two fMRI sessions across the transition from late childhood (10 years) to early adolescence (13 years). Responses to affective facial displays exhibited a combination of general and emotion-specific changes in ventral striatum (VS), ventromedial PFC, amygdala, and temporal pole. Furthermore, VS activity increases correlated with decreases in susceptibility to peer influence and risky behavior. VS and amygdala responses were also significantly more negatively coupled in early adolescence than in late childhood while processing sad and happy versus neutral faces. Together, these results suggest that VS responses to viewing emotions may play a regulatory role that is critical to adolescent interpersonal functioning.

  18. Influence of changing water sources and mineral chemistry on the everglades ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, P.V.; Harvey, J.W.; Crawford, E.S.

    2011-01-01

    Human influences during the previous century increased mineral inputs to the Florida Everglades by changing the sources and chemistry of surface inflows. Biogeochemical responses to this enrichment include changes in the availability of key limiting nutrients such as P, the potential for increased turnover of nutrient pools due to accelerated plant decomposition, and increased rates of mercury methylation associated with sulfate enrichment. Mineral enrichment has also been linked to the loss of sensitive macrophyte species, although dominant Everglades species appear tolerant of a broad range of mineral chemistry. Shifts in periphyton community composition and function provide an especially sensitive indicator of mineral enrichment. Understanding the influence of mineral chemistry on Everglades processes and biota may improve predictions of ecosystem responses to ongoing hydrologic restoration efforts and provide guidelines for protecting remaining mineral-poor areas of this peatland. Copyright ?? 2011 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

  19. The influence of land use change on karst water quality of Shuicheng Basin in Guizhou Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIAYanan; YUANDaoxian

    2004-01-01

    The influence of land use and land cover on ecological environment is a focus of global change research. The paper chooses an industrial city-Shuicheng in Guizhou Province-as a study area because the karst water quality around the city is deteriorating with land use and land cover change.The natural susceptibility of karst water system is an important factor leading to karst water pollution.But land use and land cover change is also a main factor according to the chemical analysis of karst water quality and land use change. So it is a good way to protect karst water through rational planning and managing of land use and land cover.

  20. [Climate change influences the incidence of arthropod-borne diseases in the Netherlands].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahamat-Langendoen, J C; van Vliet, J A; Reusken, C B E M

    2008-04-12

    Climate change is associated with changes in the occurrence of arthropod-borne diseases. It is difficult to foresee which arthropod-borne diseases will appear in the Netherlands due to climate change. Climate change influences the prevalence of ticks and may lead to a further increase in Lyme disease and an increased risk of the introduction of rickettsioses. With further warming of the climate there is a real possibility of settlement of the mosquito Aedes albopictus and introduction of the sandfly in the Netherlands. Whether this will lead to circulation of micro-organisms transmitted by these vectors (e.g. West Nile virus, Dengue virus, Leishmania) is not clear. Continued vigilance is necessary, even for vector-borne diseases that appear to be less relevant for the Netherlands.

  1. Videos Influence Behavior Change Measures for Voice and Speech in Individuals with Parkinson’s Disease

    OpenAIRE

    Kopf, Lisa M.; Graetzer, Simone; HUH, JINA

    2015-01-01

    The majority of individuals with Parkinson’s disease (PD) experience voice and speech difficulties at some point over the course of the disease. Voice therapy has been found to help improve voice and speech in individuals with PD, but the majority of these individuals do not enroll in voice therapy. The purpose of this study was to determine whether watching short videos about voice symptoms and treatment in Parkinson’s disease influences readiness to change, stages of change, and self-effica...

  2. Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. D. Andrews

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Ocean deoxygenation has been observed in all major ocean basins over the past 50 yr. Although this signal is largely consistent with oxygen changes expected from anthropogenic climate change, the contribution of external forcing to recent deoxygenation trends relative to natural internal variability is yet to be established. Here we conduct a formal optimal fingerprinting analysis to investigate if external forcing has had a detectable influence on observed dissolved oxygen concentration ([O2] changes between ~ 1970 and ~ 1992 using simulations from two Earth System Models (MPI-ESM-LR and HadGEM2-ES. We detect a response to external forcing at a 90% confidence level and find that observed [O2] changes are inconsistent with internal variability as simulated by models. This result is robust in the global ocean for depth-averaged (1-D zonal mean patterns of [O2] change in both models. Further analysis with the MPI-ESM-LR model shows similar positive detection results for depth-resolved (2-D zonal mean [O2] changes globally and for the Pacific Ocean individually. Observed oxygen changes in the Atlantic Ocean are indistinguishable from natural internal variability. Simulations from both models consistently underestimate the amplitude of historical [O2] changes in response to external forcing, suggesting that model projections for future ocean deoxygenation may also be underestimated.

  3. Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. D. Andrews

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Ocean deoxygenation has been observed in all major ocean basins over the past 50 yr. Although this signal is largely consistent with oxygen changes expected from anthropogenic climate change, the contribution of external forcing to recent deoxygenation trends relative to natural internal variability is yet to be established. Here we conduct a formal optimal fingerprinting analysis to investigate if external forcing has had a detectable influence on observed dissolved oxygen concentration ([O2] changes between ∼1970 and ∼1992 using simulations from two Earth System Models (MPI-ESM-LR and HadGEM2-ES. We detect a response to external forcing at a 90% confidence level and find that observed [O2] changes are inconsistent with internal variability as simulated by models. This result is robust in the global ocean for depth-averaged (1-D zonal mean patterns of [O2] change in both models. Further analysis with the MPI-ESM-LR model shows similar positive detection results for depth-resolved (2-D zonal mean [O2] changes globally and for the Pacific Ocean individually. Observed oxygen changes in the Atlantic Ocean are indistinguishable from natural internal variability. Simulations from both models consistently underestimate the amplitude of historical [O2] changes in response to external forcing, suggesting that model projections for future ocean deoxygenation may also be underestimated.

  4. Detecting an external influence on recent changes in oceanic oxygen using an optimal fingerprinting method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, O. D.; Bindoff, N. L.; Halloran, P. R.; Ilyina, T.; Le Quéré, C.

    2013-03-01

    Ocean deoxygenation has been observed in all major ocean basins over the past 50 yr. Although this signal is largely consistent with oxygen changes expected from anthropogenic climate change, the contribution of external forcing to recent deoxygenation trends relative to natural internal variability is yet to be established. Here we conduct a formal optimal fingerprinting analysis to investigate if external forcing has had a detectable influence on observed dissolved oxygen concentration ([O2]) changes between ∼1970 and ∼1992 using simulations from two Earth System Models (MPI-ESM-LR and HadGEM2-ES). We detect a response to external forcing at a 90% confidence level and find that observed [O2] changes are inconsistent with internal variability as simulated by models. This result is robust in the global ocean for depth-averaged (1-D) zonal mean patterns of [O2] change in both models. Further analysis with the MPI-ESM-LR model shows similar positive detection results for depth-resolved (2-D) zonal mean [O2] changes globally and for the Pacific Ocean individually. Observed oxygen changes in the Atlantic Ocean are indistinguishable from natural internal variability. Simulations from both models consistently underestimate the amplitude of historical [O2] changes in response to external forcing, suggesting that model projections for future ocean deoxygenation may also be underestimated.

  5. Sensitivity of worst-case strom surge considering influence of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayabu, Izuru; Hibino, Kenshi; Sasaki, Hidetaka; Shiogama, Hideo; Mori, Nobuhito; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya

    2016-04-01

    There are two standpoints when assessing risk caused by climate change. One is how to prevent disaster. For this purpose, we get probabilistic information of meteorological elements, from enough number of ensemble simulations. Another one is to consider disaster mitigation. For this purpose, we have to use very high resolution sophisticated model to represent a worst case event in detail. If we could use enough computer resources to drive many ensemble runs with very high resolution model, we can handle these all themes in one time. However resources are unfortunately limited in most cases, and we have to select the resolution or the number of simulations if we design the experiment. Applying PGWD (Pseudo Global Warming Downscaling) method is one solution to analyze a worst case event in detail. Here we introduce an example to find climate change influence on the worst case storm-surge, by applying PGWD to a super typhoon Haiyan (Takayabu et al, 2015). 1 km grid WRF model could represent both the intensity and structure of a super typhoon. By adopting PGWD method, we can only estimate the influence of climate change on the development process of the Typhoon. Instead, the changes in genesis could not be estimated. Finally, we drove SU-WAT model (which includes shallow water equation model) to get the signal of storm surge height. The result indicates that the height of the storm surge increased up to 20% owing to these 150 years climate change.

  6. Influence of pneumoperitoneum and postural change on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems in dogs

    OpenAIRE

    2015-01-01

    We investigated the influence of pneumoperitoneum#(PP) and postural change under inhalation anesthesia with isoflurane, which is routinely used in dogs, on the cardiovascular and respiratory systems. As test animals, 6 adult beagles were used. To induce anesthesia, atropine, butorphanol and propofol were intravenously injected. Anesthesia was maintained with 1.3 MAC (1.7%) isoflurane. The following were the experiment conditions: I:E ratio, 1:1.9; tidal air exchange, 20 ml/kg; and ventilation...

  7. Influence of stem temperature changes on heat pulse sap flux density measurements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandegehuchte, Maurits W; Burgess, Stephen S O; Downey, Alec; Steppe, Kathy

    2015-04-01

    While natural spatial temperature gradients between measurement needles have been thoroughly investigated for continuous heat-based sap flow methods, little attention has been given to how natural changes in stem temperature impact heat pulse-based methods through temporal rather than spatial effects. By modelling the theoretical equation for both an ideal instantaneous pulse and a step pulse and applying a finite element model which included actual needle dimensions and wound effects, the influence of a varying stem temperature on heat pulse-based methods was investigated. It was shown that the heat ratio (HR) method was influenced, while for the compensation heat pulse and Tmax methods changes in stem temperatures of up to 0.002 °C s(-1) did not lead to significantly different results. For the HR method, rising stem temperatures during measurements led to lower heat pulse velocity values, while decreasing stem temperatures led to both higher and lower heat pulse velocities, and to imaginary results for high flows. These errors of up to 40% can easily be prevented by including a temperature correction in the data analysis procedure, calculating the slope of the natural temperature change based on the measured temperatures before application of the heat pulse. Results of a greenhouse and outdoor experiment on Pinus pinea L. show the influence of this correction on low and average sap flux densities.

  8. Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

    2016-10-01

    Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

  9. Factors influencing liver and spleen volume changes after donor hepatectomy for living donor liver transplantation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Ji Hee; Ryeom, Hunku; Song, Jung Hup [Kyungpook National University Hospital, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-11-15

    To define the changes in liver and spleen volumes in the early postoperative period after partial liver donation for living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) and to determine factors that influence liver and spleen volume changes. 27 donors who underwent partial hepatectomy for LDLT were included in this study. The rates of liver and spleen volume change, measured with CT volumetry, were correlated with several factors. The analyzed factors included the indocyanine green (ICG) retention rate at 15 minutes after ICG administration, preoperative platelet count, preoperative liver and splenic volumes, resected liver volume, resected-to-whole liver volume ratio (LV{sub R}/LV{sub W}), resected liver volume to the sum of whole liver and spleen volume ratio [LV{sub R}/(LV{sub W} + SV{sub 0})], and pre and post hepatectomy portal venous pressures. In all hepatectomy donors, the volumes of the remnant liver and spleen were increased (increased rates, 59.5 ± 50.5%, 47.9 ± 22.6%). The increment rate of the remnant liver volume revealed a positive correlation with LV{sub R}/LV{sub W} (r = 0.759, p < 0.01). The other analyzed factors showed no correlation with changes in liver and spleen volumes. The spleen and remnant liver volumes were increased at CT volumetry performed 2 weeks after partial liver donation. Among the various analyzed factors, LV{sub R}/LV{sub W} influences the increment rate of the remnant liver volume.

  10. Study on the changes of immune function in children with infectious mononucleosis%儿童传染性单核细胞增多症的免疫功能改变

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    阎樱; 刘晓娥

    2012-01-01

    Objective To study the changes of immune function in children with infectious mononucleosis ( IM ) and their relation with clinical features. Methods Lymphocyte subsets of peripheral blood in 24 cases with IM and 22 normal cases were detected by flow cytometry. Results The levels of CD3 + CD19- ( total T lymphocyte ) and CD3 + CD8 + ( inhibition T lymphocyte ) expression were markedly increased, and there was statistical difference between them ( t value was 5. 223 and 14. 982, respectively, both P <0.01 ). But the levels of CD3- CD19+ ( total B lymphocyte ), CD3+ CD4+ , ( helper T lymphocyte ), CD3+ CD4VCD3+ CD8+ ( helper/ inhibition T lymphocyte ), CD3 - /CD16 + CD56 + ( natural killer cell ) cells reduced significantly in IM group compared with those of healthy control group, and the differences were statistically significant (t value was -10.090, -9.355, -14.973 and -6.652, respectively, all P < 0.01 ). Conclusion Patients with IM have great changes in peripheral blood lymphocyte subtypes and immune function disorder. Detecting the expression of peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets may be very important for evaluating immune function, assistant diagnosis, guidance for therapy and prognosis of IM children.%目的 探讨传染性单核细胞增多症(IM)患儿细胞免疫功能的变化及与疾病的关系.方法 用流式细胞仪分别对22例正常儿童及24例IM患儿进行外周血淋巴细胞亚群检测.结果 与健康对照组相比较,IM组CD3+CD19-(总T淋巴细胞)及CD3+CD8+(抑制性T淋巴细胞)表达明显升高,差异具有统计学意义(t值分别为5.223,14.982,P<0.01),而CD3-CD19+(总B淋巴细胞)、CD3+CD4+(辅助性T淋巴细胞)、CD3+CD4+/CD3+CD8+(辅助/抑制性T淋巴细胞比值)及CD3-/CD16+CD56+(NK细胞)的表达则明显下降,差异均具有统计学意义(t值分别为-10.090、-9.355、-14.973、-6.652,均P<0.01).结论 IM患儿外周血淋巴细胞亚群明显变化,存在免疫功能紊乱.检测外周血淋巴细胞亚

  11. Eight challenges in modelling infectious livestock diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Brooks-Pollock

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases of livestock does not differ in principle from disease transmission in any other animals, apart from that the aim of control is ultimately economic, with the influence of social, political and welfare constraints often poorly defined. Modelling of livestock diseases suffers simultaneously from a wealth and a lack of data. On the one hand, the ability to conduct transmission experiments, detailed within-host studies and track individual animals between geocoded locations make livestock diseases a particularly rich potential source of realistic data for illuminating biological mechanisms of transmission and conducting explicit analyses of contact networks. On the other hand, scarcity of funding, as compared to human diseases, often results in incomplete and partial data for many livestock diseases and regions of the world. In this overview of challenges in livestock disease modelling, we highlight eight areas unique to livestock that, if addressed, would mark major progress in the area.

  12. Infectious pathogens and bronchiolitis outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Kohei; Mansbach, Jonathan M; Camargo, Carlos A

    2014-07-01

    Bronchiolitis is a common early childhood illness and an important cause of morbidity, it is the number one cause of hospitalization among US infants. Bronchiolitis is also an active area of research, and recent studies have advanced our understanding of this illness. Although it has long been the conventional wisdom that the infectious etiology of bronchiolitis does not affect outcomes, a growing number of studies have linked specific pathogens of bronchiolitis (e.g., rhinovirus) to short- and long-term outcomes, such as future risk of developing asthma. The authors review the advent of molecular diagnostic techniques that have demonstrated diverse pathogens in bronchiolitis, and they review recent studies on the complex link between infectious pathogens of bronchiolitis and the development of childhood asthma.

  13. Infectious disease modeling a hybrid system approach

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, Xinzhi

    2017-01-01

    This volume presents infectious diseases modeled mathematically, taking seasonality and changes in population behavior into account, using a switched and hybrid systems framework. The scope of coverage includes background on mathematical epidemiology, including classical formulations and results; a motivation for seasonal effects and changes in population behavior, an investigation into term-time forced epidemic models with switching parameters, and a detailed account of several different control strategies. The main goal is to study these models theoretically and to establish conditions under which eradication or persistence of the disease is guaranteed. In doing so, the long-term behavior of the models is determined through mathematical techniques from switched systems theory. Numerical simulations are also given to augment and illustrate the theoretical results and to help study the efficacy of the control schemes.

  14. [Genomic medicine and infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellay, Jacques

    2014-05-07

    Relentless progress in our knowledge of the nature and functional consequences of human genetic variation allows for a better understanding of the protracted battle between pathogens and their human hosts. Multiple polymorphisms have been identified that impact our response to infections or to anti-infective drugs, and some of them are already used in the clinic. However, to make personalized medicine a reality in infectious diseases, a sustained effort is needed not only in research but also in genomic education.

  15. The influence of various graphical and numeric trend display formats on the detection of simulated changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, R R; Merry, A F; Warman, G R; Webster, C S

    2009-11-01

    Integration of a large amount of information is important in anaesthesia but there is little research to guide the development of data displays. Anaesthetists from two hospitals participated in five related screen based simulation studies comparing various formats for display of historical or 'trend' data. Participants were asked to indicate when they first noticed a change in each displayed variable. Accuracy and latency (i.e. delay) in detection of changes were recorded. Latency was shorter with a graphic display of historical data than with a numeric display. Increasing number of variables or reduction of y-axis height increased the latency of detection. If the same number of data points were included, there was no difference between graphical and numerical displays of historical data. There was no difference in accuracy between graphical or numerical displays. These results suggest that the way trend data is presented can influence the speed of detection of changes.

  16. Influence of void ratio on phase change of thermal energy storage for heat pipe receiver

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaohong Gui

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, influence of void ratio on phase change of thermal storage unit for heat pipe receiver under microgravity is numerically simulated. Accordingly, mathematical model is set up. A solidification-melting model upon the enthalpy-porosity method is specially provided to deal with phase changes. The liquid fraction distribution of thermal storage unit of heat pipe receiver is shown. The fluctuation of melting ratio in PCM canister is indicated. Numerical results are compared with experimental ones in Japan. The results show that void cavity prevents the process of phase change greatly. PCM melts slowly during sunlight periods and freezes slowly during eclipse periods as void ratio increases. The utility ratio of PCM during both sunlight periods and eclipse periods decreases obviously with the improvement of void ratio. The thermal resistance of void cavity is much higher than that of PCM canister wall. Void cavity prevents the heat transfer between PCM zone and canister wall.

  17. INFLUENCE OF STEAM PRESSURE ON CHEMICAL CHANGES OF HEAT-TREATED MONGOLIAN PINE WOOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Ding

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Properties of heat-treated wood have been studied extensively in recent years. However, study on wood that has been treated in pressurized steam is limited, as most wood heat treatments are carried out in atmospheric steam. The main purpose of this study was to explore the influence of steam pressure on chemical changes of heat-treated wood. Wet chemical analysis, elemental analysis, and FTIR analysis were performed to investigate the changes of cell wall components of Mongolian pine wood. Samples treated in pressurized steam had lower percentages of polysaccharides and higher percentages of lignin compared to those treated in atmospheric steam, indicating greater chemical changes during the treatment. It was also found that thermal degradation of both samples was modest at the treatment temperature of 205 °C. These results help to explain the better dimensional stability and limited strength deterioration of wood treated in pressurized steam.

  18. Habitat change influences mate search behaviour in three-spined sticklebacks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heuschele, Jan; Salminen, Tiina; Candolin, Ulrika

    2012-01-01

    Mate choice is one of the main mechanisms of sexual selection, with profound implications for individual fitness. Changes in environmental conditions can cause individuals to alter their mate search behaviour, with consequences for mate choice. Human-induced eutrophication of water bodies...... is a global problem that alters habitat structure and visibility in aquatic ecosystems. We investigated whether changes in habitat complexity and male cue modality, visual or olfactory, influence mate search behaviour of female three-spined sticklebacks, Gasterosteus aculeatus. We allowed gravid females...... evaluation in the absence of visual stimulation. This reduced the rate of mate encounters and probably also the opportunity for choice. Our results show that changes in habitat structure and visibility can alter female mate searching, with potential consequences for the opportunity for sexual selection....

  19. Clinical study on changes of related infectious indicators of patients with coronary heart disease%冠心病患者感染性相关指标变化的临床研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    叶显华; 周亮; 杨建敏; 童国新; 徐鹏; 王宁夫

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To explore the changes of multiple infectious indicators of elderly patients with coronary heart disease so as to provide guidance for clinical diagnosis and treatment .METHODS A total of 3 160 elderly pa-tients with coronary heart disease ,who were treated in the hospital from Jan 2010 to Dec 2012 ,were enrolled in the study ,then 210 patients with infections were extracted and assigned as the observation group ,meanwhile ,210 healthy elderly people were recruited as the control group ,the levels of the serum interleukin-10 ,interleukin-8 , interleukin-6 ,tumor necrosis factor .RESULTS The levels of the serum interleukin-10 ,interleukin-8 ,interleukin-6 ,tumor necrosis factor ,γinterferon ,and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein of the observation group were signifi-cantly higher than those of the control group ,the differences were significant(P<0 .05) .The levels of the serum interleukin-10 ,interleukin-8 ,interleukin-6 ,tumor necrosis factor ,γ-interferon ,and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein of the Ⅳ grade patients were significantly higher those of the Ⅱ grade patients or the Ⅲ grade patients , however ,the levels of the six indicators of the Ⅲ grade patients were significantly higher than those of the Ⅱgrade patients ,the differences were significant (P<0 .05) .The levels of the serum interleukin-10 ,interleukin-8 , interleukin-6 ,tumor necrosis factor ,γ-interferon ,and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein of the patients with myo-cardial infarction were significantly higher than those of the patients with stable angina pectoris or the patients with unstable angina pectoris ,however ,the levels of the six indicators of the patients with unstable angina pecto-ris were significantly higher than those of the patients with stable angina pectoris ,the differences were significant (P<0 .05) .CONCLUSION The levels of the serum interleukin-10 ,interleukin-8 ,interleukin-6 ,tumor necrosis factor ,γ-interferon ,and high-sensitivity C

  20. Acute tonsillitis at infectious patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. P. Finogeev

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available We examined 1824 patients with diphtheria treated in Clinical Infectious Diseases Hospital Botkin (St. Petersburg in 1993 – 1994, and more than 500 patients referred to the clinic with a diagnosis of «angina». Based on published data and our own research observations investigated the etiology of acute tonsillitis. Bacterial tonsillitis should be treated with antibiotics, and this is important aetiological interpretation of these diseases. Streptococcal tonsillitis should always be a sore throat syndrome as a diagnostic sign of support. For other forms of lymphoma lesion of the tonsils should not be defined as «angina», and called «tonsillitis». Аngina as β-hemolytic streptococcus group A infection is recognized as the leader in the development of rheumatic fever. On the basis of a large clinical material briefly analyzed the clinical manifestations of various forms of diphtheria with membranous tonsillitis. Also presented with a syndrome of infectious diseases as tonsillitis, therapeutic and surgical «mask» of infectious diseases.

  1. Planning safer suburbs: do changes in the built environment influence residents' perceptions of crime risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, Sarah; Wood, Lisa; Christian, Hayley; Knuiman, Matthew; Giles-Corti, Billie

    2013-11-01

    A growing body of evidence has reiterated the negative impacts that crime and perceptions of insecurity can have on the health and wellbeing of local residents. Strategies that reduce residents' perceived crime risk may contribute to improved health outcomes; however interventions require a better understanding of the neighbourhood influences on residents perceptions of crime and safety. We examined the impact of changes in the objective built environment following relocation on changes in residents' perceived crime risk for participants in a longitudinal study of people moving to new neighbourhoods in Perth, Western Australia (n = 1159). They completed a questionnaire before moving to their new neighbourhood, and again 36 months after relocation. Individual-level objective environmental measures were generated at both time points using Geographic Information Systems, focussing on the characteristics that comprise a 'walkable neighbourhood'. Linear regression models examined the influence of objective environmental changes between the two environments on perceived crime risk, with progressive adjustment for other change variables (i.e., perceptions of the physical and social environment, reported crime). We found that increases in the proportion of land allocated to shopping/retail land-uses increased residents' perceived crime risk (β = 11.875, p = 0.001), and this relationship remained constant, despite controlling for other influences on perceived crime risk (β = 9.140, p = 0.004). The findings highlight an important paradox: that the neighbourhood characteristics known to enhance one outcome, such as walking, may negatively impact another. In this instance, the 'strangers' that retail destinations attract to a neighbourhood may be interpreted by locals as a threat to safety. Thus, in areas with more retail destinations, it is vital that other environmental strategies be employed to balance any negative effects that retail may have on residents' perceptions of

  2. Escaping the poverty trap: modeling the interplay between economic growth and the ecology of infectious disease

    CERN Document Server

    Goerg, Georg M; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Althouse, Benjamin M

    2013-01-01

    The dynamics of economies and infectious disease are inexorably linked: economic well-being influences health (sanitation, nutrition, treatment capacity, etc.) and health influences economic well-being (labor productivity lost to sickness and disease). Often societies are locked into ``poverty traps'' of poor health and poor economy. Here, using a simplified coupled disease-economic model with endogenous capital growth we demonstrate the formation of poverty traps, as well as ways to escape them. We suggest two possible mechanisms of escape both motivated by empirical data: one, through an influx of capital (development aid), and another through changing the percentage of GDP spent on healthcare. We find that a large influx of capital is successful in escaping the poverty trap, but increasing health spending alone is not. Our results demonstrate that escape from a poverty trap may be possible, and carry important policy implications in the world-wide distribution of aid and within-country healthcare spending.

  3. Human Impacts and Climate Change Influence Nestedness and Modularity in Food-Web and Mutualistic Networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kazuhiro Takemoto

    Full Text Available Theoretical studies have indicated that nestedness and modularity-non-random structural patterns of ecological networks-influence the stability of ecosystems against perturbations; as such, climate change and human activity, as well as other sources of environmental perturbations, affect the nestedness and modularity of ecological networks. However, the effects of climate change and human activities on ecological networks are poorly understood. Here, we used a spatial analysis approach to examine the effects of climate change and human activities on the structural patterns of food webs and mutualistic networks, and found that ecological network structure is globally affected by climate change and human impacts, in addition to current climate. In pollination networks, for instance, nestedness increased and modularity decreased in response to increased human impacts. Modularity in seed-dispersal networks decreased with temperature change (i.e., warming, whereas food web nestedness increased and modularity declined in response to global warming. Although our findings are preliminary owing to data-analysis limitations, they enhance our understanding of the effects of environmental change on ecological communities.

  4. Thermal physical properties and key influence factors of phase change emulsion

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Hui; YANG Rui; ZHANG Yinping; HUANG Zhe; LIN Jia; WANG Xin

    2005-01-01

    Latent functionally thermal fluids (LFTF) are a novel kind of heat storage and heat transfer fluids that include phase change microcapsule slurry and phase change emulsion (PCE). They have much greater apparent specific heats and higher heat transfer abilities in the phase change temperature range than conventional single-phase heat transfer fluids such as water. Thus they are advantageous in the field of the convective heat transfer enhancement and energy transport. In this paper, some thermal physical properties such as viscosity, fusion heat and apparent specific heat (cp) are measured, and the influences of some factors (such as selection of surfactants, preparation method, temperature, mixing ratio of surfactants and mass concentration of phase change material) on them are discussed. The study shows that: 1) the viscosity of the PCE prepared in the present work is lower than that reported in the literature; 2) its apparent specific heat value for the phase change temperature region is high and proportionally increases with the concentration of phase change material.

  5. INFECTIOUS COMPLICATIONS IN CHRONIC LYMPHOCYTIC LEUKEMIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AnnaMaria Nosari

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Infectious complications have been known to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in CLL patients who are predisposed to infections because of both the humoral immunodepression inherent to hematologic disease, which is related to stage and duration of CLL, and to further immunosuppression related to therapy. The majority of infections in CLL patients treated with alkilating agents is of bacterial origin. The immunodeficiency and natural infectious history of alkylator-resistant, corticosteroid-treated patients appears to have changed with the administration of purine analogs, which has been complicated by very severe and unusual infections and also more viral infections due to sustained reduction of CD4-positive T lymphocytes. The following introduction of monoclonal antibody therapies, in particular alemtuzumab, further increased the immunodepression, increasing also infections which appeared more often in patients with recurrent neutropenia due to chemotherapy cycles. Epidemiological data regarding fungal infections in lymphoproliferative disorders are scarce. Italian SEIFEM group in a retrospective multicentre study regarding CLL patients reported an incidence of mycoses 0.5%; however, chronic lymphoproliferative disorders emerged as second haematological underlying disease after acute leukemia in a French study on aspergillosis; in particular CLL with aspergillosis accounted for a third of these chronic lymphoproliferative diseases presenting mould infection.

  6. INFECTIOUS COMPLICATIONS IN CHRONIC LYMPHOCYTIC LEUKEMIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AnnaMaria Nosari

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    Infectious complications have been known to be a major cause of morbidity and mortality in CLL patients who are predisposed to infections because of both the humoral immunodepression inherent to hematologic disease, which is related to stage and duration of CLL, and to further immunosuppression related to therapy. The majority of infections in CLL patients treated with alkilating agents is of bacterial origin. The immunodeficiency and natural infectious history of alkylator-resistant, corticosteroid-treated patients appears to have changed with the administration of purine analogs, which has been complicated by very severe and unusual infections and also more viral infections due to sustained reduction of CD4-positive T lymphocytes. The following introduction of monoclonal antibody therapies, in particular alemtuzumab, further increased the immunodepression, increasing also infections which appeared more often in patients with recurrent neutropenia due to chemotherapy cycles.

    Epidemiological data regarding fungal infections in lymphoproliferative disorders are scarce. Italian SEIFEM group in a retrospective multicentre study regarding CLL patients reported an incidence of mycoses 0.5%; however, chronic lymphoproliferative disorders emerged as second haematological underlying disease after acute leukemia in a French study on aspergillosis; in particular CLL with aspergillosis accounted for a third of these chronic lymphoproliferative diseases presenting mould infection.

  7. Feline Coronaviruses: Pathogenesis of Feline Infectious Peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekes, G; Thiel, H-J

    2016-01-01

    Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) belongs to the few animal virus diseases in which, in the course of a generally harmless persistent infection, a virus acquires a small number of mutations that fundamentally change its pathogenicity, invariably resulting in a fatal outcome. The causative agent of this deadly disease, feline infectious peritonitis virus (FIPV), arises from feline enteric coronavirus (FECV). The review summarizes our current knowledge of the genome and proteome of feline coronaviruses (FCoVs), focusing on the viral surface (spike) protein S and the five accessory proteins. We also review the current classification of FCoVs into distinct serotypes and biotypes, cellular receptors of FCoVs and their presumed role in viral virulence, and discuss other aspects of FIPV-induced pathogenesis. Our current knowledge of genetic differences between FECVs and FIPVs has been mainly based on comparative sequence analyses that revealed "discriminatory" mutations that are present in FIPVs but not in FECVs. Most of these mutations result in amino acid substitutions in the S protein and these may have a critical role in the switch from FECV to FIPV. In most cases, the precise roles of these mutations in the molecular pathogenesis of FIP have not been tested experimentally in the natural host, mainly due to the lack of suitable experimental tools including genetically engineered virus mutants. We discuss the recent progress in the development of FCoV reverse genetics systems suitable to generate recombinant field viruses containing appropriate mutations for in vivo studies.

  8. Changes of Urban Boundary Layer Thermodynamic Stability Induced by Heat Island Effect and Their Influences on Precipitation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The aim was to study the characteristics of the changes of the urban boundary layer thermodynamic stability induced by heat island effect and their influences on precipitation.[Method] Proceeding from the thermodynamic equation,the changes of urban boundary layer thermodynamic stability caused by the urban heat disturbance and the mean state of heat island effect were discussed.The influence of the changes of urban boundary layer thermodynamic stability on the precipitation was expounded.Combini...

  9. Influence of climate variability versus change at multi-decadal time scales on hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have shown that rainfall and hydrological extremes do not randomly occur in time, but are subject to multidecadal oscillations. In addition to these oscillations, there are temporal trends due to climate change. Design statistics, such as intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) for extreme rainfall or flow-duration-frequency (QDF) relationships, are affected by both types of temporal changes (short term and long term). This presentation discusses these changes, how they influence water engineering design and decision making, and how this influence can be assessed and taken into account in practice. The multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes were studied based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles. The statistical significance of the oscillations was evaluated by means of a non-parametric bootstrapping method. Oscillations in large scale atmospheric circulation were identified as the main drivers for the temporal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes. They also explain why spatial phase shifts (e.g. north-south variations in Europe) exist between the oscillation highs and lows. Next to the multidecadal climate oscillations, several stations show trends during the most recent decades, which may be attributed to climate change as a result of anthropogenic global warming. Such attribution to anthropogenic global warming is, however, uncertain. It can be done based on simulation results with climate models, but it is shown that the climate model results are too uncertain to enable a clear attribution. Water engineering design statistics, such as extreme rainfall IDF or peak or low flow QDF statistics, obviously are influenced by these temporal variations (oscillations, trends). It is shown in the paper, based on the Brussels 10-minutes rainfall data, that rainfall design values may be about 20% biased or different when based on short rainfall series of 10 to 15 years length, and

  10. Infectious diseases and global warming: Tracking disease incidence rates globally

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Low, N.C. [Low and Associates Actuary, Cerritos, CA (United States)

    1995-09-01

    Given the increasing importance of impact of global warming on public health, there is no global database system to monitor infectious disease and disease in general, and to which global data of climate change and environmental factors, such as temperature, greenhouse gases, and human activities, e.g., coastal development, deforestation, can be calibrated, investigated and correlated. The author proposes the diseases incidence rates be adopted as the basic global measure of morbidity of infectious diseases. The importance of a correctly chosen measure of morbidity of disease is presented. The importance of choosing disease incidence rates as the measure of morbidity and the mathematical foundation of which are discussed. The author further proposes the establishment of a global database system to track the incidence rates of infectious diseases. Only such a global system can be used to calibrate and correlate other globally tracked climatic, greenhouse gases and environmental data. The infrastructure and data sources for building such a global database is discussed.

  11. Empathy, but not mimicry restriction, influences the recognition of change in emotional facial expressions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosonogov, Vladimir; Titova, Alisa; Vorobyeva, Elena

    2015-01-01

    The current study addressed the hypothesis that empathy and the restriction of facial muscles of observers can influence recognition of emotional facial expressions. A sample of 74 participants recognized the subjective onset of emotional facial expressions (anger, disgust, fear, happiness, sadness, surprise, and neutral) in a series of morphed face photographs showing a gradual change (frame by frame) from one expression to another. The high-empathy (as measured by the Empathy Quotient) participants recognized emotional facial expressions at earlier photographs from the series than did low-empathy ones, but there was no difference in the exploration time. Restriction of facial muscles of observers (with plasters and a stick in mouth) did not influence the responses. We discuss these findings in the context of the embodied simulation theory and previous data on empathy.

  12. Some proves of integrated influence of geomagnetic activity and weather changes on human health

    CERN Document Server

    Khabarova, O V

    2008-01-01

    Our environment includes many factors, and each person on the Earth is permanently influenced by two of them: weather and magnetic field. It was found in the works of many investigators that the weather changes correlate with human health state. In the same time, disturbances of geomagnetic field (as one of the space weather manifestations) may influence bioobjects, including people. In this work we demonstrate the cumulative effect of different external factors (space weather and meteorological weather parameters) on human health on the base of medical experimental data (blood pressure and heart rate data rows for 86 people). It is shown that inclusion both solar-geomagnetic and weather parameters in simulation process give adjusting mixed parameter, which correlates with health state significantly better, than separated environmental parameters do.

  13. Influence of changing carbonate chemistry on morphology and weight of coccoliths formed by Emiliania huxleyi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. G. Schulz

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available The coccolithophore Emiliania huxleyi is a marine phytoplankton species capable of forming small calcium carbonate scales (coccoliths which cover the organic part of the cell. Calcification rates of E. huxleyi are known to be sensitive to changes in seawater carbonate chemistry. It is, however, not yet understood how these changes are reflected in the morphology of coccoliths. Here, we compare data on coccolith size, weight, and malformation from a~set of five experiments with a large diversity of carbonate chemistry conditions. This diversity allows distinguishing the influence of individual carbonate chemistry parameters such as carbon dioxide (CO2, bicarbonate (HCO3−, carbonate (CO32−, and protons (H+ on the measured parameters. Measurements of fine-scale morphological structures reveal an increase of coccolith malformation with decreasing pH suggesting that H+ is the major factor causing malformations. Coccolith distal shield area varies from about 5 to 11 μm2. Changes in size seem to be mainly induced by varying [HCO3−] and [H+] although influence of [CO32−] cannot be entirely ruled out. Changes in coccolith weight were proportional to changes in size. Increasing CaCO3 production rates are reflected in an increase in coccolith weight and an increase of the number of coccoliths formed per unit time. The combined investigation of morphological features and coccolith production rates presented in this study may help to interpret data derived from sediment cores, where coccolith morphology is used to reconstruct calcification rates in the water column.

  14. Mutation of neutralizing/antibody-dependent enhancing epitope on spike protein and 7b gene of feline infectious peritonitis virus: influences of viral replication in monocytes/macrophages and virulence in cats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takano, Tomomi; Tomiyama, Yoshika; Katoh, Yasuichiroh; Nakamura, Michiyo; Satoh, Ryoichi; Hohdatsu, Tsutomu

    2011-03-01

    We previously prepared neutralizing monoclonal antibody (MAb)-resistant (mar) mutant viruses using a laboratory strain feline infectious peritonitis virus (FIPV) 79-1146 (Kida et al., 1999). Mar mutant viruses are mutated several amino acids of the neutralizing epitope of Spike protein, compared with the parent strain, FIPV 79-1146. We clarified that MAb used to prepare mar mutant viruses also lost its activity to enhance homologous mar mutant viruses, strongly suggesting that neutralizing and antibody-dependent enhancing epitopes are present in the same region in the strain FIPV 79-1146. We also discovered that amino acid mutation in the neutralizing epitope reduced viral replication in monocytes/macrophages. We also demonstrated that the mutation or deletion of two nucleotides in 7b gene abrogate the virulence of strain FIPV 79-1146.

  15. Demographic factors and genetic variation influence population persistence under environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willi, Yvonne; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2009-01-01

    Population persistence has been studied in a conservation context to predict the fate of small or declining populations. Persistence models have explored effects on extinction of random demographic and environmental fluctuations, but in the face of directional environmental change they should also integrate factors affecting whether a population can adapt. Here, we examine the population-size dependence of demographic and genetic factors and their likely contributions to extinction time under scenarios of environmental change. Parameter estimates were derived from experimental populations of the rainforest species, Drosophila birchii, held in the lab for 10 generations at census sizes of 20, 100 and 1000, and later exposed to five generations of heat-knockdown selection. Under a model of directional change in the thermal environment, rapid extinction of populations of size 20 was caused by a combination of low growth rate (r) and high stochasticity in r. Populations of 100 had significantly higher reproductive output, lower stochasticity in r and more additive genetic variance (V(A)) than populations of 20, but they were predicted to persist less well than the largest size class. Even populations of 1000 persisted only a few hundred generations under realistic estimates of environmental change because of low V(A) for heat-knockdown resistance. The experimental results document population-size dependence of demographic and adaptability factors. The simulations illustrate a threshold influence of demographic factors on population persistence, while genetic variance has a more elastic impact on persistence under environmental change.

  16. Influence of Environmental Factors on the Volume Change of Blended Cement Containing Steel Slag

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    In the condition of 20 ℃, 5% sulfate liquor curing, standard tap water curing and 50% RH curing-three different curing environments, the volume change of steel slag blended cement influenced by environmental factors was studied. With steel slag addition 10%, 30%, 50%, from 90 days to 356 days, the relationship of shrinkage and three different curing environments is: dry curing environment>tap water curing environment>sulfate curing environment. But, the sample shrinkage in 28 days has much difference with the curing environment, which has no obvious orderliness. The different effects on blended cement containing steel slag in different environmental factors were analyzed using SEM.

  17. Morphofunctional changes and mechanisms of their realization in developing lungs under influence of paracetamol and nimesulid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kharchenko S.V.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Actuality of organs and tissues normality development studying is conditioned on continuous growth of conge-nital abnormalies оn the base of greater drugs distribution. The anomalie s of lungs development unde r influence of paraceta-mol and nimesulide are examined and the possible mechanisms of their appearance are analysed. It is determined that lungs develop more slowly under action of paracetamol than in norm and paracetamol lead to development of bronchial asthma during postnatal period of life. Small in numbers researches of nimesulide influen ce demonstrate changes of lungs histogene-sis, which show up in thei r development deceleration.

  18. Influence of climatic changes on pollution levels in the Balkan Peninsula

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zlatev, Z.; Georgiev, K.; Dimov, I.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the paper is to study the influence of future climatic changes on some high pollution levels that can cause damages on plants, animals and human beings. The particular area of interest is the Balkan Peninsula. Four important quantities have been selected: (a) annual concentrations, (b...... of these scenarios, are carefully studied. The major conclusion is that the increase of the temperature, alone or in combination with some other factors, leads to rather considerable increases of some pollution levels, which might become dangerous for the environment. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

  19. The Influence of Leadership Behavior and Organizational Commitment on Organizational Readiness for Change in a Higher Learning Institution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nordin, Norshidah

    2012-01-01

    Many factors contribute to the effectiveness in implementing organizational change. However, many change effort fail due to several factors such as lack of commitment, style of leadership, and emotional distress of the employees who have to implement the change. This study was intended to determine the influence of leadership behavior and…

  20. The influence of changes in glacier extent and surface elevation on modeled mass balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Paul

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers are widely recognized as unique demonstration objects for climate change impacts, mostly due to the strong change of glacier length in response to small climatic changes. However, glacier mass balance as the direct response to the annual atmospheric conditions can be better interpreted in meteorological terms. When the climatic signal is deduced from long-term mass balance data, changes in glacier geometry (i.e. surface extent and elevation must be considered as such adjustments form an essential part of the glacier reaction to new climatic conditions. In this study, a set of modelling experiments is performed to assess the influence of changes in glacier geometry on mass balance for constant climatic conditions. The calculations are based on a simplified distributed energy/mass balance model in combination with information on glacier extent and surface elevation for the years 1850 and 1973/1985 for about 60 glaciers in the Swiss Alps. The results reveal that over this period about 50–70% of the glacier reaction to climate change (here a one degree increase in temperature is "hidden" in the geometric adjustment, while only 30–50% can be measured as the long-term mean mass balance. For larger glaciers, the effect of the areal change is partly reduced by a lowered surface elevation, which results in a slightly more negative balance despite a potential increase of topographic shading. In view of several additional reinforcement feedbacks that are observed in periods of strong glacier decline, it seems that the climatic interpretation of long-term mass balance data is rather complex.

  1. The influence of changes in glacier extent and surface elevation on modeled mass balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Paul

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Glaciers are widely recognized as unique demonstration objects for climate change impacts, mostly due to the strong change of glacier length in response to small climatic changes. However, glacier mass balance as the direct response to the annual atmospheric conditions can be better interpreted in meteorological terms. When the climatic signal is deduced from long-term mass balance data, changes in glacier geometry (i.e. surface extent and elevation must be considered as such adjustments form an essential part of the glacier reaction to new climatic conditions. In this study, a set of modeling experiments is performed to assess the influence of changes in glacier geometry on mass balance for constant climatic conditions. The calculations are based on a simplified distributed energy/mass balance model in combination with information on glacier extent and surface elevation for the years 1850 and 1973/1985 for a larger sample of glaciers in the Swiss Alps. The results reveal that about 50–70% of the glacier reaction to climate change (here a one degree increase in temperature is "hidden" in the geometric adjustment, while only 30–50% can be measured as the long-term mean mass balance. Thereby, changes in glacier extent alone have an even stronger effect, but they are partly compensated for by a lowered surface elevation which gives on average a slightly more negative balance despite an increase of topographic shading. In view of several additional reinforcement feedbacks that are observed in periods of strong glacier decline, it seems that the climatic interpretation of mass balance data is also rather complex.

  2. The Influence of Shaolin Teaching to Houjie`s Personality Change in Shaolin Film (2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustinus Sufianto

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available New Shaolin is a famous film from China. The story tells about Houjies life and his personality change. Shaolins positive influence in Houjies life is the main purpose of this research. Research used references and the theory of Sigmund Freud of ID, Ego and Superego to analyze Houjies personality change. Result shows that after receiving Shaolins teaching, he became a better man. In Shaolin, Houjie was forgiven. Shaolins teaching such as chanting a scripture can help improve his thoughts. Reflection and Kungfu brought Houjie out of his revenge and bad emotion, also bring harmony to his thoughts and heart. Houjies pre-character was dominated by his ID, but after he had entered Shaolin and learned Shaolins teaching, Houjie studied how to reach balance in 3 factors mentioned in the theory of personality.

  3. Influence of lane change on stability analysis for two-lane traffic flow

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Zheng Liang; Ma Shou-Feng; Zhong Shi-Quan

    2011-01-01

    This paper deals mainly with the influence of lane changing behaviours on the stability of two-lane traffic flow under a periodic boundary condition.Following the description of an optimal velocity model for two vehicle groups and the derivation of their stability conditions,the feedback signals,which involve information about vehicles from both lanes acting on the two-lane traffic system,are introduced into the optimal velocity model.The control signals play a role in alleviating the traffic jam only if the traffic state is in congestion,and their role will vanish if the traffic state is in the steady state.The numerical simulations show that lane changing behaviours can break the steady state of two-lane traffic flow and aggravate the traffic disturbance,but the control method would successfully suppress the traffic jam eventually,which implies that the conclusions obtained here have certain theoretical and practical significance.

  4. Changes in social relations in old age. Are they influenced by functional ability?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Avlund, Kirsten; Due, Pernille; Holstein, Bjorn E

    2002-01-01

    The aims of this article were to describe changes in social relations from ages 75 to 80, and analyze whether changes in social relations are influenced by functional ability at age 75. The study includes data from the NORA follow-up study of 75-80 year-old men and women in Jyväskylä (Finland......, close friends, acquaintances, and neighbors; 2) diversity of social relations (number of types of social contacts); 3) telephone contacts; and 4) social participation. The function of social relations was measured by instrumental social support. Functional ability was measured by tiredness and need......), Göteborg (Sweden) and Glostrup (Denmark). The present analyses include the 743 persons who participated in both studies and who answered the questions about social relations. The structure of social relations was measured by: 1) frequency of contacts with children, grand/greatgrandchildren, relatives...

  5. Investigative modalities in infectious keratitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gupta Noopur

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Standard recommended guidelines for diagnosis of infectious keratitis do exist. Based on an extensive Medline literature search, the various investigative modalities available for aiding the diagnosis of microbial keratitis have been reviewed and described briefly. Preferred practice patterns have been outlined and the importance of routine pre-treatment cultures in the primary management of infectious keratitis has been highlighted. Corneal scraping, tear samples and corneal biopsy are few of the specimens needed to carry out the investigative procedures for diagnosis and for initiating therapy in cases of microbial keratitis. In bacterial, fungal and amoebic keratitis, microscopic examination of smears is essential for rapid diagnosis. Potassium hydroxide (KOH wet mount, Gram′s stain and Giemsa stain are widely used and are important for clinicians to start empirical therapy before microbial culture results are available. The usefulness of performing corneal cultures in all cases of suspected infectious keratitis has been well established. In cases of suspected viral keratitis, therapy can be initiated on clinical judgment alone. If a viral culture is needed, scrapings should directly be inoculated into the viral transport media. In vivo confocal microscopy is a useful adjunct to slit lamp bio-microscopy for supplementing diagnosis in most cases and establishing early diagnosis in many cases of non-responding fungal and amoebic keratitis. This is a non-invasive, high resolution technique which allows rapid detection of Acanthamoeba cysts and trophozoites and fungal hyphae in the cornea long before laboratory cultures give conclusive results. Other new modalities for detection of microbial keratitis include molecular diagnostic techniques like polymerase chain reaction, and genetic finger printing by pulsed field gel electrophoresis.

  6. Post-infectious irritable bowel syndrome

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Marroon Thabane; John K Marshall

    2009-01-01

    Post-infectious irritable bowel syndrome (PI-IBS) is a common disorder wherein symptoms of IBS begin after an episode of acute gastroenteritis. Published studies have reported incidence of PI-IBS to range between 5% and 32%. The mechanisms underlying the development of PI-IBS are not fully understood, but are believed to include persistent sub-clinical inflammation, changes in intestinal permeability and alteration of gut flora. Individual studies have suggested that risk factors for PI-IBS include patients' demographics, psychological disorders and the severity of enteric illness. However, PI-IBS remains a diagnosis of exclusion with no specific disease markers and, to date, no definitive therapy exists. The prognosis of PIIBS appears favorable with spontaneous and gradual resolution of symptoms in most patients.

  7. BENDING VIBRATION AND STABILITY OF A MULTIPLE-NANOBEAM SYSTEM INFLUENCED BY TEMPERATURE CHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilo Karličić

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we analyzed the bending vibration and stability of a multiple-nanobeam system (MNBS coupled in elastic medium and influenced by temperature change and compressive axial load. The MNBS is modeled as the system consisting of a set of m identical and simply supported nanobeams mutually connected by Winkler’s type elastic layers. According to the Euler - Bernoulli beam and nonlocal thermo-elasticity theory, the system of m coupled partial differential equations is derived and solved by means of the method of separation of variables as well as the trigonometric one. Analytical solutions for natural frequencies and critical buckling loads of elastic MNBS are obtained. The effects of nonlocal parameter, temperature change and the number of nanobeams on the natural frequencies and the buckling loads are investigated through numerical examples. Thus, this work can represent a starting point to examine dynamical behavior and design of complex nanobeam structures, nanocomposites and nanodevices under the influence of various physical fields.

  8. Duodenogastral reflux and its influence on manifestation of morphological changes of gastric mucosa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stepanov Yu.M.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Among the diseases of the gastroduodenal zone chronic gastritis (CG occupies one of the leading positions. One of the main forms of CG is reflux gastritis (RG based on long-term location of duodenal content in the gastric antrum, so-called duodenal reflux (DR. It is well known that stable inflammatory response of the gastric mucosa (GM appears under the influence of bile acid and gastric juice, leading to chronic antral gastritis followed by gradual development of atrophy, metaplasia and dysplasia appearance. Therefore the aim of our work was to investigate the influence of the DR on the course of chronic hepatitis and morphological changes in the gastric mucosa. We observed 70 patients with chronic RG, aged from 22 to 59 years, average age – 43,5±1,2 years. The control group consisted of 25 healthy individuals of both sexes aged from 19 to 39 years. As a result it was found out that pain and dyspeptic syndromes caused problems most of all. While studying the content of bile acids in gastric juice of all patients examined it was higher (1,42±0,05 g/L in comparison with the control group (0,65±0,04 g/L. Content of bile acids in groups of RG patients with atrophy and without it was analyzed. The role of DR as an independent factor of recomposing changes in GM in chronic RG was proved.

  9. Influence of cyclic temperature changes on the microstructure of AISI 4140 after laser surface hardening

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miokovic, T. [Institute of Materials Science and Engineering I, University of Karlsruhe, 76131 Karlsruhe (Germany); Schulze, V. [Institute of Materials Science and Engineering I, University of Karlsruhe, 76131 Karlsruhe (Germany)]. E-mail: volker.schulze@mach.uni-karlsruhe.de; Voehringer, O. [Institute of Materials Science and Engineering I, University of Karlsruhe, 76131 Karlsruhe (Germany); Loehe, D. [Institute of Materials Science and Engineering I, University of Karlsruhe, 76131 Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2007-01-15

    In recent years laser surface hardening using pulsed laser sources has become an increasingly established technology in engineering industry and has opened up wider possibilities for the application of selective surface hardening. However, the choice of the process parameters is generally based on experience rather than on their empirical influence on the resulting microstructure, and for hardening processes with cyclic temperature changes, almost no correlations between process parameters and hardening results are known. Therefore, some problems regarding the choice of the process parameters and their influence on the resulting microstructure still remain. In particular, there is a lack of data concerning the effect of cyclic temperature changes on hardening. To facilitate process optimization, this paper deals with a detailed characterization of the microstructures created in quenched and tempered AISI 4140 (German grade 42CrMo4) steel following a temperature-dependent laser surface hardening treatment. The structure properties were obtained from microhardness measurements, scanning electron microscopy investigations and X-ray diffraction analysis of retained austenite.

  10. THE ANALYSIS OF CHANGES AND INFLUENCING FACTORS OF EARLY POSTTHORACOTOMY PULMONARY FUNCTION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔玉尚; 张志庸; 徐协群

    2003-01-01

    Objective. To investigate the changes and influencing factors of early postoperative pulmonary functionof thoracotomy.Methods. Pre-and early postoperative pulmonary function was studied in 64 consecutive cases withoptimal thoracotomy. Pain assessment was done before pulmonary function test, and the chief complaintsof patients were recorded after the procedure. The changing curves of pulmonary function were done andthe differences associated with groups, surgical styles, pain assessment, epidural analgesia, chief com-plaint and preoperative conditions were analyzed.Results. Pulmonary function was severely lowered to about 40% of the base line on the first day,and it was rehabilitated to about 60% of the base line on the eighth day. There was a greater gradienton the recovery curve on the 3rd and 4th days. Epidural analgesia was able to improve pain relaxationand pulmonary function in some degree. Single-factor analysis showed that postoperative pain, postopera-tive day and surgical style were the significant influencing factors for early postoperative pulmonary func-tion. By multiple-factor analysis, preoperative pulmonary function, age and postoperative pain were themain factors, while surgical style had only weak effect on it.Conclusions. Early postoperative pulmonary function is severely impaired by thoracotomy. It rehabili-tate gradually with time. Improvement of preoperative pulmonary function, reducing surgical procedure in-juries, especially injury to respiratory muscle system, and enough postoperative pain relief are the mostimportant means that would reduce pulmonary function impairment and consequently reduce postoperativepulmonary complications.

  11. Factors influencing the predictability of soft tissue profile changes following mandibular setback surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobarak, K A; Krogstad, O; Espeland, L; Lyberg, T

    2001-06-01

    The objective of this cephalometric study was to assess long-term changes in the soft tissue profile following mandibular setback surgery and investigate the presence of factors that may influence the soft tissue response to skeletal repositioning. The subjects enrolled were 80 consecutive mandibular prognathism patients operated with bilateral sagittal split osteotomy and rigid fixation. Lateral cephalograms were taken at 6 occasions: immediate presurgical, immediate postsurgical, 2 and 6 months postsurgical, and 1 and 3 years postsurgical. The subjects were grouped according to gender and magnitude of setback. Ratios of soft tissue to hard tissue movements were calculated for the subgroups. Females generally demonstrated greater ratios than males with a statistically significant difference for the upper lip and chin (P < .05). Postsurgical alterations in the profiles were more predictable in patients with larger setbacks compared to patients with smaller ones. Skeletal relapse had a profound influence on long-term profile changes. Based on these findings, it is proposed that the database used in prediction software be adjusted to account for such factors in an attempt to improve the accuracy of computerized treatment simulations.

  12. Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Changes in Foxtail Millet Planting Area in Hebei Province

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Meng; LIU; Yu; ZHAO; Fei; LIU; Shunguo; LI; Guirong; WANG; Xinshi; ZHANG

    2013-01-01

    Since reform and open to the outside world,foxtail millet planting area in Hebei Province has constantly reduced,and its planting region has changed from the whole province into some regions,with obvious changes. In this paper,by using qualitative and quantitative approaches like chart analysis,summarizing,Delphi method and osculating value model,the influencing factors of changes in millet growing region in Hebei Province were studied. The results showed that the changes of millet planting area were closely related to many factors,such as little investment in scientific research,weak policy support,a single consumer product demand,the rapid development of other staple crops, labor migration,relatively low comparative effectiveness and physiological characteristics of the millet itself. Then some suggestions were put forward,such as increasing research support,strengthening scientific research strength,researching and developing deeply processed products, expanding consumer groups,improving millet policy support,providing subsidies for planting the improved varieties,researching and developing various types of machinery,and increasing millet production technology training.

  13. Study of influence of exchange rate change on the supply and demand of energy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sohn, Y.H.; Shin, D.C. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-08-01

    The change of relative prices of trading goods and non-trading goods due to appreciation or depreciation of real exchange rates influences industrial structure and trading infrastructure by changing output, consumption, import and export, and prices of domestic economy. Considering that energy is used as intermediate input of all industrial sectors as well as in final consumption in the Korean economy which lacks energy resources and relies on imported energy resources, I believe that assessing the concrete effects of the real exchange rate change onto the energy industry must be a very important item in establishing effective energy policy. In this thesis, I measure the elasticity of the exchange rate as endogenous factors related to the energy industry using a CGE model that breaks down the energy industry. One (1) % depreciation of real exchange rate increases the domestic sales prices of all energy industry sectors, and the price increase ratios of petroleum and coal products are calculated as the highest among these. Petroleum and coal products show the highest price increase ratios while both the output and export decrease. On the other hand, depreciation increases the domestic sales prices of power generation, city gas, and heating sectors, but it is found to increase the output apart from petroleum and coal products. Depreciation of the real exchange rate is found to change the composition of the energy industry from petroleum and coal products to power generation, city gas, and heating sectors. 11 refs., 1 fig., 6 tabs.

  14. The predictable influence of soil temperature and barometric pressure changes on vapor intrusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, David L.; McRae, Mary F.

    2017-02-01

    Intrusion of volatile organic compounds in the gas phase has impacted many buildings in many different locations. Various building and environmental factors such as buoyancy of heated air and changes in barometric pressure can influence indoor air concentrations due to vapor intrusion in these buildings resulting in seasonal and daily variability. One environmental factor that previous research has not adequately addressed is soil temperature. In this study we present two northern region study sites where the seasonal trends in indoor air VOC concentrations positively correlate with soil temperature, and short-term (days) variations are associated with barometric pressure changes. We present simple and multivariate linear relationships of indoor air concentrations as a function of soil temperature and barometric pressure. Results from this study show that small changes in soil temperature can result in relatively large changes in indoor air VOC concentrations where the gas phase VOCs are sourced from non-aqueous phase liquids contained in the soil. We use the results from this study to show that a five degree Celsius increase in soil temperature, a variation in soil temperature that is possible in many climatic regions, results in a two-fold increase in indoor air VOC concentrations. Additionally, analysis provides insight into how building ventilation, diffusion, and the relative rate of soil-gas flow across the slab both from the subsurface into the building and from the building into the subsurface impact short term variations in concentrations. With these results we are able to provide monitoring recommendations for practitioners.

  15. Influencing organisational change in the NHS: lessons learned from workplace wellness initiatives in practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blake, Holly; Lloyd, Scott

    2008-01-01

    This article presents a discussion of the key issues in influencing organisational change in NHS settings, in the development of workplace wellness interventions to improve employee health and wellbeing. To tackle poor public health and associated rising healthcare costs, there must be a focus on the root cause of many preventable diseases - unhealthy lifestyle choices. Workplace wellness initiatives are now an important prevention strategy adopted by socially responsible organisations to target the health and wellbeing of working age adults. Lessons learned from initiatives in secondary care suggest that effective implementation requires change in organisational 'health culture', through a combination of education, behaviour change intervention, needs-based facilities, and services and strategies for developing supportive and health-promoting work environments. Most of all, employers must demonstrate a commitment to health and wellness that is fully integrated with their mission, values and long-term vision, paving the way for sustainable lifestyle changes. Evaluation systems must be in place to measure the impact and outcomes of wellness schemes.

  16. Clinical and Pathological Observation on Infectious Serositis of Duck

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    According to clinical and pathological observation in infectious serositis of duck, the main signs of this disease were diarrhoea, breathing with difficulty, head tremble and movement beyond coordination. The pathological changes that had been found in 30 experimental ducks were fibrous pericarditis, hepatitis, and encephalitis. The fibrous serositis, liver fatty degeneration or focus necrosis, nonsuppurative encephalitis and serous-fibrous pneumonia were typical pathological changes of histology.

  17. Scientific Opinion on infectious salmon anaemia (ISA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    EFSA Panel on Animal Health and Welfare (AHAW

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Atlantic salmon is the only species in which the disease infectious salmon anaemia (ISA has been observed naturally. Initial reports of findings of infectious salmon anaemia virus (ISAV before 2002, did not distinguish between non virulent HPR0 and virulent HPRΔ viruses, thus making interpretation of older findings difficult in the light of current knowledge. Following a request from the European Commission, EFSA was asked to deliver a scientific opinion on the relationship between HPR0 and HPRΔ, the risk of HPRΔ ISAV emerging from HPR0 ISAV, and possible risk factors for such an emergence. HPR0 ISAV does not cause clinical disease in Atlantic salmon; however, it causes a transient subclinical infection and replicates mainly in gills. There is no evidence for HPR0 ISAV leading to natural infection and replication in fish species other than Atlantic salmon. Virulent ISAV have deletions in the HPR region of the HE gene and they have either an insertion or the Q266L mutation in the F gene. The most plausible hypothesis is that virulent ISAV (HPRΔ is derived from HPR0 ISAV. This is further supported by the close association between the genetic relatedness and spatio-temporal distances of virus strains in solitary outbreaks. Epidemiological and historical data from solitary disease outbreaks indicates that the risk of HPRΔ ISAV emerging from HPR0 is low, but not negligible. The risk factors for HPRΔ emergence from HPR0 are unknown. Nevertheless, any factor that affects virus replication or host susceptibility could possibly influence the risk of emergence. More research is needed on the drivers for transition from HPR0 to HPRΔ and factors affecting host susceptibility and thereby emergence of clinical disease. A quantitative assessment of the different evolutionary forces for ISA would be useful, as well as the prevalence of ISAV HPR0 in farmed and wild Atlantic salmon.

  18. Mesoscale Morphological Change, Beach Rotation and Storm Climate Influences along a Macrotidal Embayed Beach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tony Thomas

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Cross-shore profiles and environmental forcing were used to analyse morphological change of a headland bay beach: Tenby, West Wales (51.66 N; −4.71 W over a mesoscale timeframe (1996–2013. Beach profile variations were attuned with longer term shoreline change identified by previous research showing southern erosion and northern accretion within the subaerial zone and were statistically significant in both sectors although centrally there was little or no significance. Conversely a statistically significant volume loss was shown at all profile locations within the intertidal zone. There were negative phase relationships between volume changes at the beach extremities, indicative of beach rotation and results were statistically significant (p < 0.01 within both subaerial (R2 = 0.59 and intertidal (R2 = 0.70 zones. This was confirmed qualitatively by time-series analysis and further cross correlation analysis showed trend reversal time-lagged associations between sediment exchanges at either end of the beach. Wave height and storm events displayed summer/winter trends which explained longer term one directional rotation at this location. In line with previous regional research, environmental forcing suggests that imposed changes are influenced by variations in southwesterly wind regimes. Winter storms are generated by Atlantic southwesterly winds and cause a south toward north sediment exchange, while southeasterly conditions that cause a trend reversal are generally limited to the summer period when waves are less energetic. Natural and man-made embayed beaches are a common coastal feature and many experience shoreline changes, jeopardising protective and recreational beach functions. In order to facilitate effective and sustainable coastal zone management strategies, an understanding of the morphological variability of these systems is needed. Therefore, this macrotidal research dealing with rotational processes across the entire intertidal

  19. Multi-scalar influences on mortality change over time in 274 European cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, Elizabeth A; Moon, Graham; Pearce, Jamie; Shortt, Niamh K; Mitchell, Richard

    2017-04-01

    Understanding determinants of urban health is of growing importance. Factors at multiple scales intertwine to influence health in cities but, with the growing autonomy of some cities from their countries, city population health may be becoming more a matter for city-level rather than national-level policy and action. We assess the importance of city, country, and macroregional (Western and East-Central Europe) scales to mortality change over time for 274 cities (population 80 million) from 27 European countries. We then investigate whether mortality changes over time are related to changes in city-level affluence. Using Urban Audit data, all-age all-cause standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) for males and females were calculated at three time points (wave one 1999-2002, wave two 2003-2006, and wave three 2007-2009) for each city. Multilevel regression was used to model the SMRs as a function of survey wave and city region gross domestic product (GDP) per 1000 capita. SMRs declined over time and the substantial East-West gap narrowed slightly. Variation at macroregion and country scales characterised SMRs for women in Western and East-Central European cities, and SMRs for men in East-Central European cities. Between-city variation was evident for male SMRs in Western Europe. Changes in city-region GDP per capita were not associated with changes in mortality over the study period. Our results show how geographical scales differentially impact urban mortality. We conclude that changes in urban health should be seen in both city and wider national and macroregional contexts.

  20. Influence of external forcings on abrupt millennial-scale climate changes: a statistical modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitsui, Takahito; Crucifix, Michel

    2016-07-01

    The last glacial period was punctuated by a series of abrupt climate shifts, the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. The frequency of DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, the influence of external forcings on DO events is investigated with statistical modelling. We assume two types of simple stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The model parameters are estimated by using the maximum likelihood method with the NGRIP Ca^{2+} record. The stochastic oscillator model with at least the ice volume forcing reproduces well the sample autocorrelation function of the record and the frequency changes of warming transitions in the last glacial period across MISs 2, 3, and 4. The model performance is improved with the additional insolation forcing. The BIC scores also suggest that the ice volume forcing is relatively more important than the insolation forcing, though the strength of evidence depends on the model assumption. Finally, we simulate the average number of warming transitions in the past four glacial periods, assuming the model can be extended beyond the last glacial, and compare the result with an Iberian margin sea-surface temperature (SST) record (Martrat et al. in Science 317(5837): 502-507, 2007). The simulation result supports the previous observation that abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in the penultimate glacial (MIS 6) are less frequent than in the last glacial (MISs 2-4). On the other hand, it suggests that the number of abrupt millennial-scale climate changes in older glacial periods (MISs 6, 8, and 10) might be larger than inferred from the SST record.

  1. Influence of three common calibration metrics on the diagnosis of climate change impacts on water resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiller, G.; Roy, R.; Anctil, F.

    2017-04-01

    Uncertainties associated to the evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources are broad, from multiple sources, and lead to diagnoses sometimes difficult to interpret. Quantification of these uncertainties is a key element to yield confidence in the analyses and to provide water managers with valuable information. This work specifically evaluates the influence of hydrological modeling calibration metrics on future water resources projections, on thirty-seven watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. Twelve lumped hydrologic models, representing a wide range of operational options, are calibrated with three common objective functions derived from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The hydrologic models are forced with climate simulations corresponding to two RCP, twenty-nine GCM from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and two post-treatment techniques, leading to future projections in the 2041-2070 period. Results show that the diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources are quite affected by the hydrologic models selection and calibration metrics. Indeed, for the four selected hydrological indicators, dedicated to water management, parameters from the three objective functions can provide different interpretations in terms of absolute and relative changes, as well as projected changes direction and climatic ensemble consensus. The GR4J model and a multimodel approach offer the best modeling options, based on calibration performance and robustness. Overall, these results illustrate the need to provide water managers with detailed information on relative changes analysis, but also absolute change values, especially for hydrological indicators acting as security policy thresholds.

  2. Are life history events of a northern breeding population of Cooper's Hawks influenced by changing climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfield, Robert N; Hardin, Madeline G; Bielefeldt, John; Keyel, Edward R

    2017-01-01

    Numerous studies have demonstrated earlier timing of spring migration and egg-laying in small passerines, but documentation of such responses to recent climate change in the life histories of higher trophic feeding birds such as raptors is relatively scarce. Raptors may be particularly susceptible to possible adverse effects of climate change due to their longer generation turnover times and lower reproductive capacity, which could lead to population declines because of an inability to match reproductive timing with optimal brood rearing conditions. Conversely adaptively favorable outcomes due to the influence of changing climate may occur. In general, birds that seasonally nest earlier typically have higher reproductive output compared to conspecifics that nest later in the season. Given the strong seasonal decline in reproductive output, and the heritability of nesting phenology, it is possible that nesting seasons would (adaptively) advance over time. Recent climate warming may release prior ecological constraints on birds that depend on food availability at the time of egg production, as do various raptors including Cooper's Hawks (Accipiter cooperii). Under this scenario, productivity, especially clutch size, might increase because it is likely that this reproductive demographic may be the most immediate response to the earlier seasonal presence of food resources. We demonstrated a statistically significant shift of about 4-5 days to an earlier timing of egg-hatching in spring across 36 years during 1980-2015 for a partially migratory population of Cooper's Hawks in Wisconsin, United States, which is consistent with a recent study that showed that Cooper's Hawks had advanced their timing of spring migration during 1979-2012. Both studies occurred in the Great Lakes region, an area that compared to global averages is experiencing earlier and increased warming particularly in the spring in Wisconsin. The nesting period did not lengthen. We suggest that the

  3. Infectious Risks of Traveling Abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lin H; Blair, Barbra M

    2015-08-01

    A popular leisure activity, international travel can be associated with some infections. The most common travel-related illnesses appear to be gastrointestinal, dermatologic, respiratory, and systemic febrile syndromes. The pretravel medical consultation includes immunizations, malaria chemoprophylaxis, self-treatment for traveler's diarrhea, and advice on the prevention of a myriad of other infectious causes including dengue, chikungunya, rickettsiosis, leptospirosis, schistosomiasis, and strongyloidiasis. Travel to locations experiencing outbreaks such as Ebola virus disease, Middle East respiratory syndrome, avian influenza, and chikungunya call for specific alerts on preventive strategies. After travel, evaluation of an ill traveler must explore details of exposure, including destinations visited; activities; ingestion of contaminated food or drinks; contact with vectors, animals, fresh water, or blood and body fluids; and other potential exposures. Knowledge of the geographic distribution of infectious diseases is important in generating the differential diagnoses and testing accordingly. Empiric treatment is sometimes necessary when suspicion of a certain diagnosis is strong and confirmatory tests are delayed or lacking, particularly for infections that are rapidly progressive (for example, malaria) or for which timing of testing is prolonged (such as leptospirosis).

  4. Unmet Diagnostic Needs in Infectious Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blaschke, Anne J.; Hersh, Adam L.; Beekmann, Susan E.; Ince, Dilek; Polgreen, Philip M.; Hanson, Kimberly E.

    2014-01-01

    Accurate diagnosis is critical to providing appropriate care in infectious diseases. New technologies for infectious disease diagnostics are emerging, but gaps remain in test development and availability. The Emerging Infections Network surveyed Infectious Diseases physicians to assess unmet diagnostic needs. Responses reflected the urgent need to identify drug-resistant infections and highlighted the potential for early diagnosis to improve antibiotic stewardship. Information gained from this survey can help inform recommendations for new diagnostic test development in the future. PMID:25456043

  5. Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke

    2014-06-03

    Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.

  6. Effect of non-stationary climate on infectious gastroenteritis transmission in Japan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onozuka, Daisuke

    2014-06-01

    Local weather factors are widely considered to influence the transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. Few studies, however, have examined the non-stationary relationships between global climatic factors and transmission of infectious gastroenteritis. We analyzed monthly data for cases of infectious gastroenteritis in Fukuoka, Japan from 2000 to 2012 using cross-wavelet coherency analysis to assess the pattern of associations between indices for the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Infectious gastroenteritis cases were non-stationary and significantly associated with the IOD and ENSO (Multivariate ENSO Index [MEI], Niño 1 + 2, Niño 3, Niño 4, and Niño 3.4) for a period of approximately 1 to 2 years. This association was non-stationary and appeared to have a major influence on the synchrony of infectious gastroenteritis transmission. Our results suggest that non-stationary patterns of association between global climate factors and incidence of infectious gastroenteritis should be considered when developing early warning systems for epidemics of infectious gastroenteritis.

  7. The predicted influence of climate change on lesser prairie-chicken reproductive parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grisham, Blake A.; Boal, Clint W.; Haukos, David A.; Davis, Dawn M.; Boydston, Kathy K.; Dixon, Charles; Heck, Willard R.

    2013-01-01

    The Southern High Plains is anticipated to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. These changes may influence the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) in positive or negative ways. We assessed the potential changes in clutch size, incubation start date, and nest survival for lesser prairie-chickens for the years 2050 and 2080 based on modeled predictions of climate change and reproductive data for lesser prairie-chickens from 2001–2011 on the Southern High Plains of Texas and New Mexico. We developed 9 a priori models to assess the relationship between reproductive parameters and biologically relevant weather conditions. We selected weather variable(s) with the most model support and then obtained future predicted values from climatewizard.org. We conducted 1,000 simulations using each reproductive parameter’s linear equation obtained from regression calculations, and the future predicted value for each weather variable to predict future reproductive parameter values for lesser prairie-chickens. There was a high degree of model uncertainty for each reproductive value. Winter temperature had the greatest effect size for all three parameters, suggesting a negative relationship between above-average winter temperature and reproductive output. The above-average winter temperatures are correlated to La Niña events, which negatively affect lesser prairie-chickens through resulting drought conditions. By 2050 and 2080, nest survival was predicted to be below levels considered viable for population persistence; however, our assessment did not consider annual survival of adults, chick survival, or the positive benefit of habitat management and conservation, which may ultimately offset the potentially negative effect of drought on nest survival.

  8. The influence of land use and climate change on forest biomass and composition in Massachusetts, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Jonathan R; Foster, David R; Scheller, Robert; Kittredge, David

    2011-10-01

    Land use and climate change have complex and interacting effects on naturally dynamic forest landscapes. To anticipate and adapt to these changes, it is necessary to understand their individual and aggregate impacts on forest growth and composition. We conducted a simulation experiment to evaluate regional forest change in Massachusetts, USA over the next 50 years (2010-2060). Our objective was to estimate, assuming a linear continuation of recent trends, the relative and interactive influence of continued growth and succession, climate change, forest conversion to developed uses, and timber harvest on live aboveground biomass (AGB) and tree species composition. We examined 20 years of land use records in relation to social and biophysical explanatory variables and used regression trees to create "probability-of-conversion" and "probability-of-harvest" zones. We incorporated this information into a spatially interactive forest landscape simulator to examine forest dynamics as they were affected by land use and climate change. We conducted simulations in a full-factorial design and found that continued forest growth and succession had the largest effect on AGB, increasing stores from 181.83 Tg to 309.56 Tg over 50 years. The increase varied from 49% to 112% depending on the ecoregion within the state. Compared to simulations with no climate or land use, forest conversion reduced gains in AGB by 23.18 Tg (or 18%) over 50 years. Timber harvests reduced gains in AGB by 5.23 Tg (4%). Climate change (temperature and precipitation) increased gains in AGB by 17.3 Tg (13.5%). Pinus strobus and Acer rubrum were ranked first and second, respectively, in terms of total AGB throughout all simulations. Climate change reinforced the dominance of those two species. Timber harvest reduced Quercus rubra from 10.8% to 9.4% of total AGB, but otherwise had little effect on composition. Forest conversion was generally indiscriminate in terms of species removal. Under the naive

  9. What Is a Pediatric Infectious Diseases Specialist?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... are recurrent Respiratory infections Bone and joint infections Tuberculosis (TB) Acquired Immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) Hepatitis Meningitis Where Can I Find A Pediatric Infectious Diseases ...

  10. Characteristics of Hodgkin's lymphoma after infectious mononucleosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjalgrim, Henrik; Askling, Johan; Rostgaard, Klaus;

    2003-01-01

    -based Danish cohorts of patients who were tested for infectious mononucleosis: 17,045 with serologic evidence of having had acute EBV infection, and 24,614 with no such evidence. We combined the cohort of patients who had serologically verified infectious mononucleosis with a cohort of 21,510 Swedish patients....... Sixteen of 29 tumors (55 percent), obtained from patients with infectious mononucleosis, had evidence of EBV. There was no evidence of an increased risk of EBV-negative Hodgkin's lymphoma after infectious mononucleosis. In contrast, the risk of EBV-positive Hodgkin's lymphoma was significantly increased...

  11. Infectious Disease Clinical Research Program (IDCRP)

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Laboratory Consortium — Our mission is to conduct infectious disease clinical research of importance to the military through a unique, adaptive, and collaborative network, to inform health...

  12. The effects of microstructural changes caused by welding on microbiologically influenced corrosion: Material and process implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walsh, D.W.; Willis, E.R.; Van Diepen, T. [California Polytechnic State Univ., San Luis Obispo, CA (United States). Materials Engineering Dept.

    1995-10-01

    The microbiologically influenced corrosion (MIC) susceptibility of a material is inextricably linked to its microstructure. The thermomechanical cycle associated with welding produces extensive microstructural change in the vicinity of the weld. This work tested the hypothesis that fabrication procedure would alter MIC susceptibility. This study examined the effect of systematic variation in the amounts of cerium, sulfur and silicon on the corrosion susceptibility of welded AISI 8630 material in aqueous, anaerobic solutions. Samples were exposed to both sterile and biologically solutions. Biologically active solutions were invariably more aggressive. The changes in corrosion susceptibility were correlated to the changes in the microstructure of the weld fusion zone, the partially melted zone (PMZ) and the base material, as affected by minor element content. Significant correlations between total numbers of pits/maximum pit depth and minor element content/location of attack were found in this study. The creation of extensive subgrain boundary coupled with solute redistribution in the fusion zone as well as extensive continuous grain boundary films in the partially melted zone foster MIC in these locations. Mitigation strategies treating material selection and weld process/procedure selection are discussed.

  13. Network structure and influence of the climate change counter-movement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, Justin

    2016-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change represents a global threat to human well-being and ecosystem functioning. Yet despite its importance for science and policy, our understanding of the causes of widespread uncertainty and doubt found among the general public remains limited. The political and social processes driving such doubt and uncertainty are difficult to rigorously analyse, and research has tended to focus on the individual-level, rather than the larger institutions and social networks that produce and disseminate contrarian information. This study presents a new approach by using network science to uncover the institutional and corporate structure of the climate change counter-movement, and machine-learning text analysis to show its influence in the news media and bureaucratic politics. The data include a new social network of all known organizations and individuals promoting contrarian viewpoints, as well as the entirety of all written and verbal texts about climate change from 1993-2013 from every organization, three major news outlets, all US presidents, and every occurrence on the floor of the US Congress. Using network and computational text analysis, I find that the organizational power within the contrarian network, and the magnitude of semantic similarity, are both predicted by ties to elite corporate benefactors.

  14. Influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wenchao; Wang, Jie; Li, Zhanjie; Yao, Xiaolei; Yu, Jingshan

    2014-01-01

    The influences of climate change on water resources availability in Jinjiang Basin, China, were assessed using the Block-wise use of the TOPmodel with the Muskingum-Cunge routing method (BTOPMC) distributed hydrological model. The ensemble average of downscaled output from sixteen GCMs (General Circulation Models) for A1B emission scenario (medium CO2 emission) in the 2050s was adopted to build regional climate change scenario. The projected precipitation and temperature data were used to drive BTOPMC for predicting hydrological changes in the 2050s. Results show that evapotranspiration will increase in most time of a year. Runoff in summer to early autumn exhibits an increasing trend, while in the rest period of a year it shows a decreasing trend, especially in spring season. From the viewpoint of water resource availability, it is indicated that it has the possibility that water resources may not be sufficient to fulfill irrigation water demand in the spring season and one possible solution is to store more water in the reservoir in previous summer.

  15. How does epistemological knowledge on modelling influence students' engagement in the issue of climate change?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tasquier, Giulia

    2016-05-01

    Involvement in climate change has been proven to be hindered by emotional and social barriers, as well as by conceptual difficulties that students may encounter in dealing with scientific content related to particular issues such as the greenhouse effect. In this study, we start from the conjecture that behind many conceptual difficulties and emotional barriers lie particular epistemological obstacles related to a naive and stereotypical view of science. These include, in particular, the belief that science still has the role and power to provide a unique, unquestionable, and certain explanation of events and processes. Such a naive idea clashes strongly with the intrinsic complexity of climate science. This paper sets out to investigate if and how the improvement of epistemological knowledge can influence behavioural habits and foster students' engagement in climate change. In order to explore such an issue, we focus on five interviews collected at the end of a teaching experience on climate change, carried out with secondary school students (grade 11; 16-year olds). This study is a follow-up of other two analytical studies aimed at investigating, respectively, the impact of the experience on students' epistemological knowledge and on their behavioural habits.

  16. Scaling the Problem: How Commercial Interests Have Influenced the U.S. Dialogue on Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2012-12-01

    In recent years, corporations and their affiliates have played an increasing role in the national conversation on climate change, with companies weighing in not only on policy debates but also participating in discussions around climate science. A few of these companies in particular have been tremendously influential in dictating how the public understands, or misunderstands, climate science and how the national discourse on climate policy has progressed, or not progressed. To better understand this corporate involvement, we explored the roles that major corporate actors have played during a key time period in 2009 and 2010 when several important climate change policy proposals were being actively debated in the United States. Analyzing multiple venues in which companies engaged in discussion of climate change with different audiences—including the government, shareholders, and the public—we assess the degree to which commercial interests have helped or hindered a science-based public discourse on climate policy in the past decade. Discussion will focus especially on corporations' use of third party organizations, including industry trade groups, think tanks, and others, to exert influence on climate-related policy without accountability.

  17. Community reintegration of ex-prisoners: type and degree of change in variables influencing successful reintegration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinkfield, Alison J; Graffam, Joseph

    2009-02-01

    Community reintegration of ex-prisoners is an important issue in efforts to reduce recidivism. The present study examined the multiple, complex, and dynamic nature of variables influencing successful reintegration by assessing the type and degree of change in reintegration variables over time. Participants were 79 adult prisoners (54 male, 25 female) who completed a prerelease questionnaire 1 month before their release, which focused on prison-related variables, participant background, and anticipated conditions upon release. A postrelease questionnaire was administered to the same participants at 1-4 weeks and 3-4 months postrelease, focusing on the quality of life conditions experienced following release. Results indicate that current health ratings and several indicators of drug use were significantly different over the three measurement phases. Ratings of employment and housing stability, finance, and social support were unchanged over the postrelease period. Theoretical implications of the present investigation for reintegration theory are discussed, together with practical applications.

  18. Fostering Change from Within: Influencing Teaching Practices of Departmental Colleagues by Science Faculty with Education Specialties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Seth D; Rudd, James A; Stevens, Michael T; Tanner, Kimberly D; Williams, Kathy S

    2016-01-01

    Globally, calls for the improvement of science education are frequent and fervent. In parallel, the phenomenon of having Science Faculty with Education Specialties (SFES) within science departments appears to have grown in recent decades. In the context of an interview study of a randomized, stratified sample of SFES from across the United States, we discovered that most SFES interviewed (82%) perceived having professional impacts in the realm of improving undergraduate science education, more so than in research in science education or K-12 science education. While SFES reported a rich variety of efforts towards improving undergraduate science education, the most prevalent reported impact by far was influencing the teaching practices of their departmental colleagues. Since college and university science faculty continue to be hired with little to no training in effective science teaching, the seeding of science departments with science education specialists holds promise for fostering change in science education from within biology, chemistry, geoscience, and physics departments.

  19. Influence of Migrant Workers Returning to Hometown on the Changes of Village Social Structure

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CHENG Wei; ZHANG Hong

    2012-01-01

    Based on field survey data of Village Z in Henan Province and from the perspective of the end of villages,we studied the influence of migrant workers returning to hometown on the changes of village social structure from village social interaction and village right reconstruction.Survey results show that social interaction centers of migrant workers returning to hometown for starting an undertaking move outside,which has exceeded the range of rural society of acquaintances and promoted the breaking of the traditional social relationship network " Differential Model of Association".In addition,migrant workers returning to hometown actively participate in building village rights and show more passionate political enthusiasm and practice of modern democratic concept.Furthermore,it not only speeds up disintegration of China’s small peasant economy and division of traditional farmers,but also is an important opportunity for realizing farmers’ self-ending and village ending,as well as urban and rural integration.

  20. Host life history strategy, species diversity, and habitat influence Trypanosoma cruzi vector infection in Changing landscapes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicole L Gottdenker

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Anthropogenic land use may influence transmission of multi-host vector-borne pathogens by changing diversity, relative abundance, and community composition of reservoir hosts. These reservoir hosts may have varying competence for vector-borne pathogens depending on species-specific characteristics, such as life history strategy. The objective of this study is to evaluate how anthropogenic land use change influences blood meal species composition and the effects of changing blood meal species composition on the parasite infection rate of the Chagas disease vector Rhodnius pallescens in Panama. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: R. pallescens vectors (N = 643 were collected in different habitat types across a gradient of anthropogenic disturbance. Blood meal species in DNA extracted from these vectors was identified in 243 (40.3% vectors by amplification and sequencing of a vertebrate-specific fragment of the 12SrRNA gene, and T. cruzi vector infection was determined by pcr. Vector infection rate was significantly greater in deforested habitats as compared to contiguous forests. Forty-two different species of blood meal were identified in R. pallescens, and species composition of blood meals varied across habitat types. Mammals (88.3% dominated R. pallescens blood meals. Xenarthrans (sloths and tamanduas were the most frequently identified species in blood meals across all habitat types. A regression tree analysis indicated that blood meal species diversity, host life history strategy (measured as r(max, the maximum intrinsic rate of population increase, and habitat type (forest fragments and peridomiciliary sites were important determinants of vector infection with T. cruzi. The mean intrinsic rate of increase and the skewness and variability of r(max were positively associated with higher vector infection rate at a site. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In this study, anthropogenic landscape disturbance increased vector infection with T

  1. Influence of degenerative changes of intervertebral disc on its material properties and pathology

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yi; CHEN Hai-bin; ZHANG Ling; ZHANG Li-ying; LIU Jing-cheng; WANG Zheng-guo

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the material properties of normal and degenerated intervertebral discs (IVDs) and examine the effect of degenerative changes on IVD pathology.Methods: A computer-based online search was undertaken to identify English articles about material properties of IVDs published from January 1950 to 2011 in PubMed database.The retrieved keywords included material properties,intervertebral disc and degeneration.Based on the principles of reliability,advancement and efficiency,the obtained data were primarily examined,and the original source was retrieved to read the full-text.Repetitive articles were excluded.The data of material properties of normal and degenerated IVDs were summarized and analyzed by meta-analysis.Results: The data of Young's modulus,Poisson's ratio,shear modulus,hydraulic permeability and intradiscal pressure of normal and degenerated IVDs were obtained.Compared with normal IVDs,the Young's modulus and shear modulus of annulus fibrosus and nucleus pulposus were higher in degenerated IVDs,the Poisson's ratio was lower while the hydraulic permeability and intradiscal pressure were higher.Besides,the degeneration-related alterations in IVDs had an influence both on itself and other spinal structures,leading to diseases such as bulging disc,discogenic pain and spinal stenosis.Meanwhile,the heavy mechanical loading and injury indicated important pathways to IVD degeneration.Conclusions: To a certain extent,the degenerative changes of IVD influence its material properties.And the degeneration-related alterations of composition can cause structural failure of IVDs,leading to injuries and diseases.

  2. Alterations of hydraulic soil properties influenced by land-use changes and agricultural management systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weninger, Thomas; Kreiselmeier, Janis; Chandrasekhar, Parvathy; Jülich, Stefan; Schwärzel, Kai; Schwen, Andreas

    2016-04-01

    Estimation and modeling of soil water movement and the hydrologic balance of soils requires sound knowledge about hydraulic soil properties (HSP). The soil water characteristics, the hydraulic conductivity function and the pore size distribution (PSD) are commonly used instruments for the mathematical representation of HSP. Recent research highlighted the temporal variability of these functions caused by meteorological or land-use influences. State of the art modeling software for the continuous simulation of soil water movement uses a stationary approach for the HSP which means that their time dependent alterations and the subsequent effects on soil water balance is not considered. Mathematical approaches to describe the evolution of PSD are nevertheless known, but there is a lack of sound data basis for parameter estimation. Based on extensive field and laboratory measurements at 5 locations along a climatic gradient across Austria and Germany, this study will quantify short-term changes in HSP, detect driving forces and introduce a method to predict the effects of soil and land management actions on the soil water balance. Amongst several soil properties, field-saturated and unsaturated hydraulic conductivities will be determined using a hood infiltration experiments in the field as well as by evaporation and dewpoint potentiometer method in the lab. All measurements will be carried out multiple times over a span of 2 years which will allow a detailed monitoring of changes in HSP. Experimental sites where we expect significant inter-seasonal changes will be equipped with sensors for soil moisture and matric potential. The choice of experimental field sites follows the intention to involve especially the effects of tillage operations, different cultivation strategies, microclimatically effective structures and land-use changes. The international project enables the coverage of a broad range of soil types as well as climate conditions and hence will have broad

  3. Greenhouse gas policy influences climate via direct effects of land-use change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, Andrew D.; Collins, William D.; Edmonds, James A.; Torn, Margaret S.; Janetos, Anthony C.; Calvin, Katherine V.; Thomson, Allison M.; Chini, Louise M.; Mao, Jiafu; Shi, Xiaoying; Thornton, Peter; Hurtt, George; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-06-01

    Proposed climate mitigation measures do not account for direct biophysical climate impacts of land-use change (LUC), nor do the stabilization targets modeled for the 5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). To examine the significance of such effects on global and regional patterns of climate change, a baseline and alternative scenario of future anthropogenic activity are simulated within the Integrated Earth System Model, which couples the Global Change Assessment Model, Global Land-use Model, and Community Earth System Model. The alternative scenario has high biofuel utilization and approximately 50% less global forest cover compared to the baseline, standard RCP4.5 scenario. Both scenarios stabilize radiative forcing from atmospheric constituents at 4.5 W/m2 by 2100. Thus, differences between their climate predictions quantify the biophysical effects of LUC. Offline radiative transfer and land model simulations are also utilized to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms driving the coupled response. Boreal deforestation is found to strongly influence climate due to increased albedo coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Globally, the alternative scenario yields a 21st century warming trend that is 0.5 °C cooler than baseline, driven by a 1 W/m2 mean decrease in radiative forcing that is distributed unevenly around the globe. Some regions are cooler in the alternative scenario than in 2005. These results demonstrate that neither climate change nor actual radiative forcing are uniquely related to atmospheric forcing targets such as those found in the RCP’s, but rather depend on particulars of the socioeconomic pathways followed to meet each target.

  4. Change of antibiotic susceptibility testing guidelines from CLSI to EUCAST: influence on cumulative hospital antibiograms.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Wolfensberger

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We studied whether the change in antibiotic susceptibility testing (AST guidelines from CLSI to EUCAST influenced cumulative antibiograms in a tertiary care hospital in Switzerland. METHODS: Antibiotic susceptibilities of non-duplicate isolates collected within a one-year period before (period A and after (period B changing AST interpretation from CLSI 2009 to EUCAST 1.3 (2011 guidelines were analysed. In addition, period B isolates were reinterpreted according to the CLSI 2009, CLSI 2013 and EUCAST 3.1 (2013 guidelines. RESULTS: The majority of species/drug combinations showed no differences in susceptibility rates comparing periods A and B. However, in some gram-negative bacilli, decreased susceptibility rates were observed when comparing CLSI 2009 with EUCAST 1.3 within period B: Escherichia coli / cefepime, 95.8% (CLSI 2009 vs. 93.1% (EUCAST 1.3, P=0.005; Enterobacter cloacae / cefepime, 97.0 (CLSI 2009 vs. 90.5% (EUCAST 1.3, P=0.012; Pseudomonas aeruginosa / meropenem, 88.1% (CLSI 2009 vs. 78.3% (EUCAST 1.3, P=0.002. These differences were still evident when comparing susceptibility rates according to the CLSI 2013 guideline with EUCAST 3.1 guideline. For P. aeruginosa and imipenem, a trend towards a lower antibiotic susceptibility rate in ICUs compared to general wards turned into a significant difference after the change to EUCAST: 87.9% vs. 79.8%, P=0.08 (CLSI 2009 and 86.3% vs. 76.8%, P=0.048 (EUCAST 1.3. CONCLUSIONS: The change of AST guidelines from CLSI to EUCAST led to a clinically relevant decrease of susceptibility rates in cumulative antibiograms for defined species/drug combinations, particularly in those with considerable differences in clinical susceptibility breakpoints between the two guidelines.

  5. Adapting an Infectious Diseases Course for "Engaged Citizen" Themes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Senchina, David S

    2016-03-01

    This article describes philosophies and perspectives underpinning scientific citizenship-focused curricular changes implemented into a pre-existing undergraduate infectious diseases course. Impetus for the curricular changes was a novel, campus-wide, multidisciplinary "Engaged Citizen" theme for the general education curriculum. The first half of the article describes the larger contexts from which the curricular changes were borne and the resulting instructional model. The second half of the article shares both student and instructor perspectives on the curricular changes and potential application of the model to other science courses.

  6. Human Activity Influences on Vegetation Cover Changes in Beijing, China, from 2000 to 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meichen Jiang

    2017-03-01

    related in Huairou, Miyun, Pinggu, Mentougou and Yanqing (r = 0.614, p < 0.01. These findings confirm that human activity is a very significant factor in impacting and explaining vegetation changes, and that some socioeconomic influences on vegetation coverage are highly spatially heterogeneous, based on the context of different areas.

  7. Empowering African genomics for infectious disease control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Folarin, Onikepe A; Happi, Anise N; Happi, Christian T

    2014-11-07

    At present, African scientists can only participate minimally in the genomics revolution that is transforming the understanding, surveillance and clinical treatment of infectious diseases. We discuss new initiatives to equip African scientists with knowledge of cutting-edge genomics tools, and build a sustainable critical mass of well-trained African infectious diseases genomics scientists.

  8. 25 CFR 140.26 - Infectious plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Infectious plants. 140.26 Section 140.26 Indians BUREAU... Infectious plants. Traders shall not introduce into, sell, or spread within Indian reservations any plant, plant product, seed, or any type of vegetation, which is infested, or infected or which might act as...

  9. Atypical Pyoderma Gangrenosum Mimicking an Infectious Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek To

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We present a patient with atypical pyoderma gangrenosum (APG, which involved the patient’s arm and hand. Hemorrhagic bullae and progressive ulcerations were initially thought to be secondary to an infectious process, but a biopsy revealed PG. Awareness of APG by infectious disease services may prevent unnecessary use of broad-spectrum antibiotics.

  10. Atypical pyoderma gangrenosum mimicking an infectious process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    To, Derek; Wong, Aaron; Montessori, Valentina

    2014-01-01

    We present a patient with atypical pyoderma gangrenosum (APG), which involved the patient's arm and hand. Hemorrhagic bullae and progressive ulcerations were initially thought to be secondary to an infectious process, but a biopsy revealed PG. Awareness of APG by infectious disease services may prevent unnecessary use of broad-spectrum antibiotics.

  11. An Interdisciplinary Perspective: Infectious Diseases and History.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turco, Jenifer; Byrd, Melanie

    2001-01-01

    Introduces the course "Infectious Diseases and History" which is designed for freshman and sophomore students. Aims to teach about infectious diseases, develop skills of using libraries and computer resources, and develop oral and written communication skills. Focuses on tuberculosis as an example of an instructional approach and…

  12. Emerging Infectious Disease Journal Cover Art

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-04-04

    Polyxeni Potter discusses the art used on the covers of the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal.  Created: 4/4/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 4/5/2012.

  13. INFLUENCE OF MAGNETIC FIELD ON ACCURACY OF ECM BY CHANGING THE CONDUCTIVITY OF ANODE FILM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    FAN Zhijian; ZHANG Lixin; TANG lin

    2008-01-01

    The change of conductivity, thickness and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) appearance of the anode film of CrWMn in 10( NaNO3 at different anode potential either with or without the magnetic field applied are investigated by testing film resistance, galvanostatic transient and using SEM to design magnetic circuit in magnetic assisted electrochemical machining (MAECM). The experiments show that the anode film has semi-conducting property. Compared with the situation without magnetic field applied, the resistance of the film formed at 1.8V (anode potential) increased and decreased at 4.0V while B=0.4T and the magnetic north pole points toward anode. The SEM photo demonstrates that the magnetic field will densify the film in the passivation area and quicken dissolution of the anode metal in over-passivation area. Based on the influence of magnetic field on electrochemical machining(ECM) due to the changes of the anode film conductivity behavior, the magnetic north pole should be designed to point towards the workpiece surface that has been machined. Process experiments agree with the results of test analysis.

  14. [Influence of voice and hearing changes in the quality of life of active elderly individuals].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiossi, Julia Santos Costa; Roque, Francelise Pivetta; Goulart, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de; Chiari, Brasilia Maria

    2014-08-01

    This article seeks to verify the self-rated impact of voice and hearing changes of active elderly individuals in their daily lives, and the influence of this self-rating on quality of life. A cross-sectional study was conducted with 72 elderly individuals of an Open University for Senior Citizens in the state of São Paulo. The questionnaires applied were HHIE-S; VHI and WHOQoL-Old. The Pearson correlation coefficient was used adopting a p-level significance value of life was perceived by 45.8%, and moderate or severe voice handicap by 9.7% of the elderly individuals. The self-rating of hearing impact on daily life was correlated with the voice handicap index. Quality of life was negatively affected by the increase in self-rating of hearing and voice difficulties in daily life. The sample profile is typical of successful aging with the acceptance of aging changes and consequently less impact on daily lives than expected. The findings suggest that there is an impact of voice and hearing handicap on quality of life, although it has revealed high indices, bolstering the characteristic of adaptation of the sample to aging. The results justify the need for improving actions of self-care and empowerment for the elderly.

  15. Influence of the collection tube on metabolomic changes in serum and plasma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    López-Bascón, M A; Priego-Capote, F; Peralbo-Molina, A; Calderón-Santiago, M; Luque de Castro, M D

    2016-04-01

    Major threats in metabolomics clinical research are biases in sampling and preparation of biological samples. Bias in sample collection is a frequently forgotten aspect responsible for uncontrolled errors in metabolomics analysis. There is a great diversity of blood collection tubes for sampling serum or plasma, which are widely used in metabolomics analysis. Most of the existing studies dealing with the influence of blood collection on metabolomics analysis have been restricted to comparison between plasma and serum. However, polymeric gel tubes, which are frequently proposed to accelerate the separation of serum and plasma, have not been studied. In the present research, samples of serum or plasma collected in polymeric gel tubes were compared with those taken in conventional tubes from a metabolomics perspective using an untargeted GC-TOF/MS approach. The main differences between serum and plasma collected in conventional tubes affected to critical pathways such as the citric acid cycle, metabolism of amino acids, fructose and mannose metabolism and that of glycerolipids, and pentose and glucuronate interconversion. On the other hand, the polymeric gel only promoted differences at the metabolite level in serum since no critical differences were observed between plasma collected with EDTA tubes and polymeric gel tubes. Thus, the main changes were attributable to serum collected in gel and affected to the metabolism of amino acids such as alanine, proline and threonine, the glycerolipids metabolism, and two primary metabolites such as aconitic acid and lactic acid. Therefore, these metabolite changes should be taken into account in planning an experimental protocol for metabolomics analysis.

  16. Soil Phosphorus Dynamics as Influenced by Land Use Changes in Humid Tropical, Southwest China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    YANG Jing-Cheng; HUANG Jian-Hui; PAN Qing-Min; TANG Jian-Wei; HAN Xing-Guo

    2005-01-01

    Land use changes can greatly influence soil phosphorus (P) dynamics, especially when converting native forests to agricultural land. Soils in Xishuangbanna, which is one of southwest China's tropical areas that maintain fragments of primary forests, were studied to a) evaluate the effect of two common land use changes, conversion of forests to agricultural land or rubber tree plantation, on the dynamics of available P and total P in bulk soils as well as total P in particle size fractions; b) assess the relationship between soil P dynamics and soil organic carbon (SOC); and c)elucidate the relationship between soil P content and soil properties such as pH and texture. Clearing secondary forests with subsequent shifting cultivation and establishment of rubber tree plantation caused significant decreases (P < 0.05)in available P at 0-20 cm soil depths, whereas for total P there was a significant decrease (P < 0.05) when converting to shifting cultivation, rubber tree plantation, or fallow field at both 0-20 and 20-40 cm depths. Abandonment of fields used for shifting cultivation led to significant increases (P < 0.05) in available P at 20-40 cm depth. In addition, there was a significant positive relationship between soil organic carbon and soil P content. Compared to secondary forests, the ratio of organic carbon to total P in surface soils (0-20 cm) of shifting cultivation and rubber tree plantation was significantly lower (P < 0.05).

  17. Identity, influence, and change: rediscovering John Turner's vision for social psychology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haslam, S Alexander; Reicher, Stephen D; Reynolds, Katherine J

    2012-06-01

    John Turner, whose pioneering work on social identity and self-categorization theories changed the face of modern social psychology, died in July 2011. This unique virtual special issue celebrates Turner's life and work by reproducing a number of key articles that were published in the British Journal of Social Psychology and the European Journal of Social Psychology over the course of his career. These articles are of three types: first, key position papers, on which Turner was the leading or sole author; second, papers that he published with collaborators (typically PhD students) that explored key theoretical propositions; third, short commentary papers, in which Turner engaged in debate around key issues within social psychology. Together, these papers map out a clear and compelling vision. This seeks to explain the distinctly social nature of the human mind by showing how all important forms of social behaviour - and in particular, the propensity for social influence and social change -are grounded in the sense of social identity that people derive from their group memberships. As we discuss in this editorial, Turner's great contribution was to formalize this understanding in terms of testable hypotheses and generative theory and then to work intensively but imaginatively with others to take this vision forward.

  18. Differentiating Climate Change and Emissions Influence on Future Ozone and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, J.; Kim, Y. M.; Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Chang, H. H.; Liu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    From the advent of coal burning and the subsequent industrial revolution to the present, human activities continue to influence ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. Besides the obvious environmental and climate implications, studies have shown convincing links between O3 exposure and health. These adverse health outcomes range from impaired lung function and cardiovascular stress to premature death. However, little is known concerning the potential impacts of future mitigation policies on O3 and health. Applying novel modeling strategies, we provide evidence of the impact of mitigation on O3 attributable to both climate change and anthropogenic emissions. We employ the latest emission scenarios for both low and high emissions (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) and include population projections to estimate excess mortality associated with each source separate from one another. We found that, by the mid-21st century, U.S. O3 could increase by 0.9% per year under a low emission future and by 1.6% under high emission settings. We predict excess mortality from high emission-induced O3 to increase annually by over 1,200 deaths. Conversely, excess deaths from lower emissions may decrease by over 1,600 annually. Taken together, these results indicate that mitigation efforts may significantly offset the effect of climate change on O3-related mortality.

  19. How climate change might influence the potential distribution of weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens)?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padalia, Hitendra; Srivastava, Vivek; Kushwaha, S P S

    2015-04-01

    Invasive species and climate change are considered as the most serious global environmental threats. In this study, we investigated the influence of projected global climate change on the potential distribution of one of the world's most successful invader weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit.). We used spatial data on 20 environmental variables at a grid resolution of 5 km, and 564 presence records of bushmint from its native and introduced range. The climatic profiles of the native and invaded sites were analyzed in a multi-variate space in order to examine the differences in the position of climatic niches. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution of bushmint using presence records from entire range (invaded and native) along with 14 eco-physiologically relevant predictor variables. Subsequently, the trained MaxEnt model was fed with Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) climate projections to predict potential distribution of bushmint by the year 2050 under A2a and B2a emission scenarios. MaxEnt predictions were very accurate with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.95. The results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated that climatic niche of bushmint on the invaded sites is not entirely similar to its climatic niche in the native range. A vast area spread between 34 ° 02' north and 28 ° 18' south latitudes in tropics was predicted climatically suitable for bushmint. West and middle Africa, tropical southeast Asia, and northern Australia were predicted at high invasion risk. Study indicates enlargement, retreat, or shift across bushmint's invasion range under the influence of climate change. Globally, bushmint's potential distribution might shrink in future with more shrinkage for A2a scenario than B2a. The study outcome has immense potential for undertaking effective preventive/control measures and long-term management strategies for regions/countries, which are at higher risk of bushmint's invasion.

  20. Influence of seasonal and geochemical changes on the geomicrobiology of an iron carbonate mineral water spring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegler, Florian; Lösekann-Behrens, Tina; Hanselmann, Kurt; Behrens, Sebastian; Kappler, Andreas

    2012-10-01

    Fuschna Spring in the Swiss Alps (Engadin region) is a bicarbonate iron(II)-rich, pH-neutral mineral water spring that is dominated visually by dark green microbial mats at the side of the flow channel and orange iron(III) (oxyhydr)oxides in the flow channel. Gradients of O(2), dissolved iron(II), and bicarbonate establish in the water. Our goals were to identify the dominating biogeochemical processes and to determine to which extent changing geochemical conditions along the flow path and seasonal changes influence mineral identity, crystallinity, and microbial diversity. Geochemical analysis showed microoxic water at the spring outlet which became fully oxygenated within 2.3 m downstream. X-ray diffraction and Mössbauer spectroscopy revealed calcite (CaCO(3)) and ferrihydrite [Fe(OH)(3)] to be the dominant minerals which increased in crystallinity with increasing distance from the spring outlet. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis banding pattern cluster analysis revealed that the microbial community composition shifted mainly with seasons and to a lesser extent along the flow path. 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis showed that microbial communities differ between the flow channel and the flanking microbial mat. Microbial community analysis in combination with most-probable-number analyses and quantitative PCR (qPCR) showed that the mat was dominated by cyanobacteria and the channel was dominated by microaerophilic Fe(II) oxidizers (1.97 × 10(7) ± 4.36 × 10(6) 16S rRNA gene copies g(-1) using Gallionella-specific qPCR primers), while high numbers of Fe(III) reducers (10(9) cells/g) were identified in both the mat and the flow channel. Phototrophic and nitrate-reducing Fe(II) oxidizers were present as well, although in lower numbers (10(3) to 10(4) cells/g). In summary, our data suggest that mainly seasonal changes caused microbial community shifts, while geochemical gradients along the flow path influenced mineral crystallinity.

  1. Meteorological variability and infectious disease in Central Africa: a review of meteorological data quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaney, Alexandra; Little, Eliza; Ng, Sophia; Shaman, Jeffrey

    2016-10-01

    Central African countries may bear high climate change-related infectious disease burdens because of preexisting high rates of disease, poor healthcare infrastructure, land use changes, and high environmental change vulnerabilities. However, making connections between climate and infectious diseases in this region is hampered by the paucity of high-quality meteorological data. This review analyzes the sources and quality of meteorological data used to study the interactions between weather and infectious diseases in Central African countries. Results show that 23% of studies used meteorological data that mismatched with the disease spatial scale of interest. Use of inappropriate weather data was most frequently identified in analyses using meteorological station data or gridded data products. These findings have implications for the interpretation of existing analyses and provide guidance for the use of climate data in future analyses of the connections between meteorology and infectious diseases in Central Africa.

  2. Spatial dynamics and genetics of infectious diseases on heterogeneous landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Real, Leslie A; Biek, Roman

    2007-10-22

    Explicit spatial analysis of infectious disease processes recognizes that host-pathogen interactions occur in specific locations at specific times and that often the nature, direction, intensity and outcome of these interactions depend upon the particular location and identity of both host and pathogen. Spatial context and geographical landscape contribute to the probability of initial disease establishment, direction and velocity of disease spread, the genetic organization of resistance and susceptibility, and the design of appropriate control and management strategies. In this paper, we review the manner in which the physical organization of the landscape has been shown to influence the population dynamics and spatial genetic structure of host-pathogen interactions, and how we might incorporate landscape architecture into spatially explicit population models of the infectious disease process to increase our ability to predict patterns of disease occurrence and optimally design vaccination and control policies.

  3. Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. O'ishi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available When the climate is reconstructed from paleoevidence, it shows that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21 000 yr ago is cold and dry compared to the present-day. Reconstruction also shows that compared to today, the vegetation of the LGM is less active and the distribution of vegetation was drastically different, due to cold temperature, dryness, and a lower level of atmospheric CO2 concentration (185 ppm compared to a preindustrial level of 285 ppm. In the present paper, we investigate the influence of vegetation change on the climate of the LGM by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (AOVGCM, the MIROC-LPJ. The MIROC-LPJ is different from earlier studies in the introduction of a bias correction method in individual running GCM experiments. We examined four GCM experiments (LGM and preindustrial, with and without vegetation feedback and quantified the strength of the vegetation feedback during the LGM. The result shows that global-averaged cooling during the LGM is amplified by +13.5 % due to the introduction of vegetation feedback. This is mainly caused by the increase of land surface albedo due to the expansion of tundra in northern high latitudes and the desertification in northern middle latitudes around 30° N to 60° N. We also investigated how this change in climate affected the total terrestrial carbon storage by using offline Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM. Our result shows that the total terrestrial carbon storage was reduced by 597 PgC during the LGM, which corresponds to the emission of 282 ppm atmospheric CO2. In the LGM experiments, the global carbon distribution is generally the same whether the vegetation feedback to the atmosphere is included or not. However, the inclusion of vegetation feedback causes substantial terrestrial carbon storage change, especially in explaining the lowering of atmospheric CO2 during the LGM.

  4. Influence of Milling Process of Roasted Cocoa Beans on Size Distribution Change of Cocoa Cotyledon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sukrisno Widyotomo

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available One of important steps in secondarycocoa process is deshelling cocoa beans roasted. The aim of deshelling is to enrich cotyledon cocoa surface area which affects to reduce energy and processing time with good quality of the chocolate product. The objective of this research is to study the influence of milling process on physical characteristic change of cocoa beans roasted such as size distribution change, geometrical diameter average, uniformity index, fineness modulus, and average dimension of cotyledoncocoa roasted. The Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Institute has designed and tested deshelling of roasted cocoa beans which will be used in this research. Before deshelling process, C grade bulk cocoa beans has been roasted up to 2.5—3% water contents. The result showed that optimal milling process by rotary cutter type milling unit has good size distribution change, geometrical diameter average, uniformity index, fineness modulus, and average dimension on 500 rpm rotary speed and 2.8 m/s air flow. On optimal process condition, 74.5% of cocoa cotyledon roasted has diameter size between 2.0—4.75 mm, 2.116 mm average of geometrical diameter, 0.864 mm average dimension, 3.052 fineness modulus, and 80% as crude size particel-20% as temperate size particel on uniformity index. Therefore, more than 80% of cocoa cotyledon roasted has diameter size between 2.0—4.75 mm with 700—900 rpm rotary cutter speed. Average of geometric diameter was 1.65—2.19 mm, and the dimension average was 0.69—0.89 mm. Uniformity index was crude size particle up to 80—90%, and in temperate size particle10—20%. Fineness modulus value was 2.73—3.09. Key words: cocoa, milling, size distribution, roasted beans.

  5. The timing of ankle fracture surgery and the effect on infectious complications; A case series and systematic review of the literature

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Schepers (Tim); M.R. de Vries (Mark); E.M.M. van Lieshout (Esther); M. van der Elst (Maarten)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractPurpose: Information about the influence of delayed surgery on infectious wound complications is ambiguous. A clinical audit was performed to test the hypothesis that early surgery lowers the rate of infectious wound complications. Secondly we looked at the influence of surgical delay an

  6. Interference of infectious bursal disease virus on antibody production against Newcastle disease and infectious bronchitis virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WM Cardoso

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available This work has the objective of verifying the interference of infectious bursal disease virus in the antibody production against Newcastle disease virus and infectious bronchitis virus. The experiment was carried out with 640 day-old-chicks from a 42 weeks old hen flock. The birds were separated into eight experimental groups (n=80/group and were submitted to different combinations of vaccinations, with live vaccines, to Newcastle disease, avian infectious bronchitis, and infectious bursal disease with diverse combinations of days of vaccination. We verified that the utilization of polyvalent vaccinal programs have a different efficacy comparing to monovalent vaccinations when Newcastle disease, infectious bronchitis, and infectious bursal disease vaccinations are applied. This way, the use of vaccinations to infectious bursal disease in polyvalent vaccinal programs is desirable due to improvement of NDV response with the presence of IBV by the probable reduction of interference of IBV under NDV.

  7. Analysis on the epidemic factors of natural infectious focus disease and arbo infectious disease in Qianxi county%迁西县自然疫源性和虫媒传染病流行因素分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    陈晓东; 刘春燕; 陈淑君

    2012-01-01

    Objective To analyze the morbidity status and influencing factors of natural infectious focus diseases and arbo infectious diseases from January 2005 to June 2011 , and provide scientific basis for prevention and control the disease incidence and spread. Method Descriptive epidemiological method was used for analyzing the data and Excel 2003 software was used for statistics the data. Results 6 kinds 42 cases of infectious disease of natural infectious focus disease and arbo infectious disease were reported through directly network from 2005. 01 to 2011. 06 in Qianxi county, which including Rabies ( 2 cases) , Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome ( 25 cases) , Brucellosis ( 5 cases) , Typhus ( 8 cases) , Epidemic encephalitis B ( 1 cases) , Malaria (1 cases) . Among them, 2 were dead, the annual average incidence rate was 1. 61/100 000 and the fatality rate was 4. 76%. Climate warming, ecological environment change, rapid development of animal husbandry industry and propaganda and education shortage of disease prevention and cure were important impact factors of the occurrence and spread of natural infectious focus diseases and arbo infectious diseases in qianxi county. Conclusions Climate and ecological environment variation monitoring should be strengthened, at the same time, monitoring the natural infectious focus disease and arbo infectious disease, virus carrier status of host animal, vector biology and crowd immune status too. Relevant departments should enhance the cooperation and developed the comprehensive control.%目的 通过分析迁西县2005年1月-2011年6月迁西县自然疫源性和虫媒传染病的发病情况和影响因素,为有效预防和控制自然疫源性和虫媒传染病的发生和蔓延提供科学依据.方法 应用描述性流行病学方法对资料进行分析,数据采用Excel2003软件进行统计.结果 迁西县2005年1月~2011年6月通过网络直报报告自然疫源性和虫媒传染病包括狂犬病(2

  8. Fiber Bragg gratings in the radiation environment: Change under the influence of radiolytic hydrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butov, Oleg V.; Golant, Konstantin M.; Shevtsov, Igor'A.; Fedorov, Artem N.

    2015-08-01

    The change of the transmission spectra of fiber Bragg gratings written in the optical fibers, whose silica cores are doped with either germanium or nitrogen, is studied experimentally under the influence of gamma-radiation. The transmission spectra in the neighborhood of the resonance (Bragg) wavelengths were regularly recorded "in-situ" in the course of irradiation during 24 days. For this purpose, uncoated gratings were placed in a pool near the spent fuel rods of a nuclear reactor. The fibers with the gratings written in them were in immediate contact with water. The estimated total absorbed radiation dose of the fibers is approximately 5 MGy. Molecular hydrogen, which is produced by radiolysis of water and penetrates into the core of silica fiber, is found to interact with the defects of Ge-doped silica induced by gamma-radiation, thereby causing a strong impact on the parameters of the spectrum of the Bragg gratings. On the contrary, in the case of gratings inscribed in N-doped silica fibers, the hydrogen molecules interact with defects induced in the course of laser UV exposure during the grating writing only. The possible subsequent formation of additional defects in N-doped silica under the influence of gamma-radiation has no substantial impact on the transmission spectra of Bragg gratings, which remained stable. The obtained results suggest that a small amount of molecular hydrogen resided in the fiber core is the main source of radiation instability of Ge-doped fiber Bragg grating sensors in radiation environments. These hydrogen molecules can remain in the Bragg gratings, in particular, after the inscription process in the hydrogen-loaded fibers.

  9. Fiber Bragg gratings in the radiation environment: Change under the influence of radiolytic hydrogen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butov, Oleg V., E-mail: obutov@mail.ru; Golant, Konstantin M. [Kotel' nikov Institute of Radio-Engineering and Electronics of RAS, 11-7 Mokhovaya Str., Moscow 125009 (Russian Federation); Shevtsov, Igor' A.; Fedorov, Artem N. [Prolog LLC, PO Box 3007, Obninsk, the Kaluga Region 249033 (Russian Federation)

    2015-08-21

    The change of the transmission spectra of fiber Bragg gratings written in the optical fibers, whose silica cores are doped with either germanium or nitrogen, is studied experimentally under the influence of gamma-radiation. The transmission spectra in the neighborhood of the resonance (Bragg) wavelengths were regularly recorded “in-situ” in the course of irradiation during 24 days. For this purpose, uncoated gratings were placed in a pool near the spent fuel rods of a nuclear reactor. The fibers with the gratings written in them were in immediate contact with water. The estimated total absorbed radiation dose of the fibers is approximately 5 MGy. Molecular hydrogen, which is produced by radiolysis of water and penetrates into the core of silica fiber, is found to interact with the defects of Ge-doped silica induced by gamma-radiation, thereby causing a strong impact on the parameters of the spectrum of the Bragg gratings. On the contrary, in the case of gratings inscribed in N-doped silica fibers, the hydrogen molecules interact with defects induced in the course of laser UV exposure during the grating writing only. The possible subsequent formation of additional defects in N-doped silica under the influence of gamma-radiation has no substantial impact on the transmission spectra of Bragg gratings, which remained stable. The obtained results suggest that a small amount of molecular hydrogen resided in the fiber core is the main source of radiation instability of Ge-doped fiber Bragg grating sensors in radiation environments. These hydrogen molecules can remain in the Bragg gratings, in particular, after the inscription process in the hydrogen-loaded fibers.

  10. How do changes in dissolved oxygen concentration influence microbially-controlled phosphorus cycling in stream biofilms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saia, S. M.; Locke, N. A.; Regan, J. M.; Carrick, H. J.; Buda, A. R.; Walter, M. T.

    2014-12-01

    Advances in molecular microbiology techniques (e.g. epi-fluorescent microscopy and PCR) are making it easier to study the influence of specific microorganisms on nutrient transport. Polyphosphate accumulating organisms (PAOs) are commonly used in wastewater treatment plants to remove excess phosphorus (P) from effluent water. PAOs have also been identified in natural settings but their ecological function is not well known. In this study, we tested the hypothesis that PAOs in natural environments would release and accumulate P during anaerobic and aerobic conditions, respectively. We placed stream biofilms in sealed, covered tubs and subjected them to alternating air (aerobic conditions) and N2 gas (anaerobic condition) bubbling for 12 hours each. Four treatments investigated the influence of changing dissolved oxygen on micribially-controlled P cycling: (1) biofilms bubbled continuously with air, (2) biofilms bubbled alternatively with air and N2, (3) biocide treated biofilms bubbled continuously with air, and (4) biocide treated biofilms bubbled alternatively with air and N2. Treatments 3 and 4 serve as abiotic controls to treatments 1 and 2. We analyzed samples every 12 hours for soluble reactive P (SRP), temperature, dissolved oxygen, and pH. We also used fluorescent microscopy (i.e. DAPI staining) and PCR to verify the presence of PAOs in the stream biofilms. SRP results over the course of the experiment support our hypothesis that anaerobic and aerobic stream conditions may impact PAO mediated P release and uptake, respectively in natural environments. The results of these experiments draw attention to the importance of microbiological controls on P mobility in freshwater ecosystems.

  11. Rates of acute respiratory illnesses of infectious and allergic etiologies after permanent changes of duty assignments, active component, U.S. Army, Air Force, and Marine Corps, January 2005-September 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brundage, John F; Taubman, Stephen B; Clark, Leslie L

    2015-11-01

    Throughout history, acute respiratory illnesses (ARIs) have disproportionately affected military populations, particularly those in recruit training camps. A similar dynamic can affect non-trainee military settings. When military members are reassigned, they often develop ARIs within the first weeks of their arrivals at their new assignments. To assess the natures and magnitudes of the risks associated with new assignments, this analysis compared the experiences of service members within their first full calendar months at new assignments and during the same months at the same locations 1 year later. The results do not support the hypothesis that ARIs of infectious etiologies consistently occur more frequently soon after arriving at new assignments compared to 1 year later at the same locations. In contrast, during two-thirds of the 117 months considered here, rates of ARIs of presumed allergic etiologies (e.g., allergic rhinitis, asthma) were higher during the first months of new assignments compared to 1 year later. The limitations of the study methodology as well as the possible implications of the findings are discussed.

  12. Years of life lost due to infectious diseases in Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bryla, Marek; Dziankowska-Zaborszczyk, Elzbieta; Bryla, Pawel; Pikala, Malgorzata

    2017-01-01

    Purpose An evaluation of mortality due to infectious diseases in Poland in 1999–2012 and an analysis of standard expected years of life lost due to the above diseases. Methods The study material included a database created on the basis of 5,219,205 death certificates of Polish inhabitants, gathered between 1999 and 2012 and provided by the Central Statistical Office. Crude Death Rates (CDR), Standardized Death Rates (SDR) and Standard Expected Years of Life Lost (SEYLL) due to infectious and parasitic diseases were also evaluated in the study period as well as Standard Expected Years of Life Lost per living person (SEYLLp) and Standard Expected Years of Life Lost per dead person (SEYLLd). Time trends were evaluated with the application of joinpoint models and an annual percentage change in their values. Results Death certificates report that 38,261 people died due to infectious diseases in Poland in the period 1999–2012, which made up 0.73% of the total number of deaths. SDR caused by these diseases decreased, particularly in the male group: Annual Percentage Change (APC = -1.05; 95% CI:-2.0 to -0.2; p<0.05). The most positive trends were observed in mortality caused by tuberculosis (A15-A19) (APC = -5.40; 95% CI:-6.3 to -4.5; p<0.05) and also meningitis, encephalitis, myelitis and encephalomyelitis (G03-G04) (APC = -3.42; 95% CI:-4.7 to -2.1; p<0.05). The most negative mortality trends were observed for intestinal infectious diseases (A00-A09) Annual Average Percentage Change (AAPC = 7.3; 95% CI:3.1 to 11.7; p<0.05). SDR substantially decreased in the first half of the study period, but then significantly increased in the second half. Infectious and parasitic diseases contributed to a loss of around 37,000 standard expected years of life in 1999 and more than 28,000 in 2012. During the study period, the SEYLLp index decreased from 9.59 to 7.39 per 10,000 population and the SEYLLd index decreased from 14.26 to 10.34 years (AAPC = 2.3; 95% CI:-2,9 to -1.7; p<0

  13. MECHANISM OF PERSONAL DESTRUCTIVE CHANGES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ADDICTIVE FACTORES AND PERSONAL DEVELOPMENT OF RESISTENCE TO ADDICVTION

    OpenAIRE

    Ryzhov V.V.; Telepova N.N.

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to offer the productive ideas about psychological mechanism of personal destructive changes under the influence of addictive factors and about the important aspects of personal development of resistance to addiction. This ideas are the result of the analysis of scientific literature and different researches on the issue of psychological and spiritual personal development and moral value standards influencing the personal development. The results of the research c...

  14. The influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities on annual runoff of Huangfuchuan basin in northwest China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yuanyuan; Shi, Changxing; Fan, Xiaoli; Shao, Wenwei

    2015-04-01

    In recent years, climate change and anthropogenic activities have threatened the water supply in the middle reaches of the Yellow River, prompting this study into the variation of water resources and the influencing factors, taking the Huangfuchuan basin as an example. Firstly, changes in climatic aridity and annual runoff in the Huangfuchuan basin from 1956 to 2009 were analysed. Then, the influence of changes in climatic aridity, water use for irrigation and soil conservation measures were calculated using an analysis of principal components regression. The results show that climatic aridity has increased in the recent three decades with two abrupt changes around 1961 and 1998, and that annual runoff has decreased continually with two abrupt changes around 1979 and 1999. The rapid development of sediment check dams in the 1970s could be the reason for the abrupt change around 1979. The abrupt change around 1999 could be the result of both the intensification of changes in climatic aridity and the large-scale construction of water and soil conservation measures after 1983, the further improvement of these measures after 1993 and ecological restoration measures of converting cropland to forest implemented since 1997. By quantifying the effects of those factors that influence runoff variation, it was found that anthropogenic activities were more important than climate change in the two periods between 1979-1998 and 1999-2006, but the influence of changes in climatic aridity increased from the first to the second period. For the runoff reduction related to anthropogenic activities, the primary cause was water diversion for irrigation in the first period, and it was soil conservation measures in the second period.

  15. Antibiotic associated diarrhoea: Infectious causes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayyagari A

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Nearly 25% of antibiotic associated diarrhoeas (AAD is caused by Clostridium difficile, making it the commonest identified and treatable pathogen. Other pathogens implicated infrequently include Clostridium perfringens, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella oxytoca, Candida spp. and Salmonella spp. Most mild cases of AAD are due to non-infectious causes which include reduced break down of primary bile acids and decrease metabolism of carbohydrates, allergic or toxic effects of antibiotic on intestinal mucosa and pharmacological effect on gut motility. The antibiotics most frequently associated with C. difficile associated diarrhoea are clindamycin, cephalosporin, ampicillin and amoxicillin. Clinical presentation may vary from mild diarrhoea to severe colitis and pseudomembranous colitis associated with high morbidity and mortality. The most sensitive and specific diagnostic test for C. difficile infection is tissue culture assay for cytotoxicity of toxin B. Commercial ELISA kits are available. Though less sensitive, they are easy to perform and are rapid. Withdrawal of precipitating antibiotic is all that is needed for control of mild to moderate cases. For severe cases of AAD, oral metronidazole is the first line of treatment, and oral vancomycin is the second choice. Probiotics have been used for recurrent cases.

  16. [Infectious aetiologies of travelers' diarrhoea].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cavallo, J-D; Garrabé, E

    2007-11-01

    Traveler's diarrhoea (TD) occurs in 20 to 60% of European or North-American travelers in intertropical areas. Following return from endemic zone, malaria must always be evocated in front of febrile diarrhoea. Many causative infectious agents are involved in TD and their frequency may vary according to destination and seasons. The main agents involved in TD are Escherichia coli pathovars (especially enterotoxigenic and enteroaggregative E. coli) followed by enteroinvasive bacteria (Campylobacter spp., Shigella spp., Salmonella enterica), enteric viruses (norovirus, rotavirus) and protozoa (Gardia intestinalis, Cryptosporidium parvum et Entamoeba histolytica). The development of molecular biology methods as PCR may allow us to evaluate the relative frequency of these agents and especially of viral agents in TD. Protozoa and microsporidia are more frequently isolated in persistent and chronic TD, especially in compromised patients. A complete etiological research in routine microbiology laboratories is difficult and time-consuming, related to the high diversity of causative agents and the need for specific methods. Implementation of laboratory diagnosis is highly recommended when diarrhoea is associated with fever or presence of blood in stools, immunosuppression, antibiotic treatment (Clostridium difficile toxins) or in case of persistent/chronic diarrhoea. According to the high frequency of acquired antibiotic-resistance in enteric bacteria, an antibiogram must be performed for all causative bacterial agents.

  17. Influence of dynamic vegetation on climate change and terrestrial carbon storage in the Last Glacial Maximum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. O'ishi

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available When the climate is reconstructed from paleoevidence, it shows that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ca. 21 000 yr ago is cold and dry compared to the present day. Reconstruction also shows that compared to today, the vegetation of the LGM is less active and the distribution of vegetation was drastically different, due to cold temperature, dryness, and a lower level of atmospheric CO2 level (185 ppm compared to a preindustrial level of 285 ppm. In the present paper, we investigate the influence of vegetation change on the climate of the LGM by using a coupled atmosphere-ocean-vegetation general circulation model (GCM, the MIROC-LPJ. We examined four GCM experiments (LGM and preindustrial, with and without vegetation feedback and quantified the strength of the vegetation feedback during the LGM. The result shows global-averaged cooling during the LGM is amplified by +13.5% due to the introduction of vegetation feedback. This is mainly caused by the increase of land surface albedo due to the expansion of tundra in northern high latitudes and the desertification in northern middle latitudes around 30° N to 60° N. We also investigated how this change in climate affected the total terrestrial carbon storage by using a separated Lund-Potsdam-Jena dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-DGVM. Our result shows that the total terrestrial carbon storage was reduced by 653 PgC during the LGM, which corresponds to the emission of 308 ppm atmospheric CO2. The carbon distribution during the LGM that is predicted from using an atmospheric-ocean-vegetation (AOV GCM and using the LPJ-DGVM after an atmospheric-ocean (AO GCM, is generally the same, but the difference is not negligible for explaining the lowering of atmospheric CO2 during the LGM.

  18. Influence of Procyanidin Contained Foods on Changes of Antioxidant Indexes and Endogenous Substances of Athletes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan Jiang

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available To analyze the influence of procyanidin contained foods on changes of antioxidant indexes and endogenous substances of athletes, this study selected 16 athletes and divides them into the control group (A and the experiment group (B. Having taken procyanidin contained medicines for two weeks; athletes in B took centrifugal exercise with heavy intensity to establish the model of Delayed Onset Muscle Soreness (DOMS. Pain threshold with subject feelings and blood IL-6, T-AOC, SOD and MDA were measured at different time points. The measurement showed that after exercise, pain thresholds in A, B at different time points decreased remarkably; while at a same time point, pain threshold in A was lower than that in B. In both groups, post-exercise blood IL-6 increased first and then decreased and reached its peak immediately after exercise; SOD activity also increased first and decreased later and MDA rose up to its apex and then went down. As for the same time point comparison, IL-6 in A was significantly higher than in B, so did MDA; but SOD in A was notably lower than in B. Thus the conclusion is that procyanidin controls IL-6 to relieve DOMS after centrifugal exercise with heavy intensity, which effectively enhances oxidation resistance of organism.

  19. Changes in the Influence of Alcohol-Paired Stimuli on Alcohol Seeking across Extended Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corbit, Laura H.; Janak, Patricia H.

    2016-01-01

    Previous work has demonstrated that goal-directed control of alcohol-seeking and other drug-related behaviors is reduced following extended self-administration and drug exposure. Here, we examined how the magnitude of stimulus influences on responding changes across similar training and drug exposure. Rats self-administered alcohol or sucrose for 2 or 8 weeks. Previous work has shown that 8 weeks, but not 2 weeks of self-administration produces habitual alcohol seeking. Next, all animals received equivalent Pavlovian conditioning sessions where a discrete stimulus predicted the delivery of alcohol or sucrose. Finally, the impact of the stimuli on ongoing instrumental responding was examined in a Pavlovian–instrumental transfer (PIT) test. While a significant PIT effect was observed following 2 weeks of either alcohol or sucrose self-administration, the magnitude of this effect was greater following 8 weeks of training. The specificity of the PIT effect appeared unchanged by extended training. While it is well established that evaluation of the outcome of responding contributes less to behavioral control following extended training and/or drug exposure, our data indicate that reward–predictive stimuli have a stronger contribution to responding after extended training. Together, these findings provide insight into the factors that control behavior after extended drug use, which will be important for developing effective methods for controlling and ideally reducing these behaviors. PMID:27777560

  20. Landscape changes influence the occurrence of the melioidosis bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei in soil in northern Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirjam Kaestli

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The soil-dwelling saprophyte bacterium Burkholderia pseudomallei is the cause of melioidosis, a severe disease of humans and animals in southeast Asia and northern Australia. Despite the detection of B. pseudomallei in various soil and water samples from endemic areas, the environmental habitat of B. pseudomallei remains unclear. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a large survey in the Darwin area in tropical Australia and screened 809 soil samples for the presence of these bacteria. B. pseudomallei were detected by using a recently developed and validated protocol involving soil DNA extraction and real-time PCR targeting the B. pseudomallei-specific Type III Secretion System TTS1 gene cluster. Statistical analyses such as multivariable cluster logistic regression and principal component analysis were performed to assess the association of B. pseudomallei with environmental factors. The combination of factors describing the habitat of B. pseudomallei differed between undisturbed sites and environmentally manipulated areas. At undisturbed sites, the occurrence of B. pseudomallei was found to be significantly associated with areas rich in grasses, whereas at environmentally disturbed sites, B. pseudomallei was associated with the presence of livestock animals, lower soil pH and different combinations of soil texture and colour. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: This study contributes to the elucidation of environmental factors influencing the occurrence of B. pseudomallei and raises concerns that B. pseudomallei may spread due to changes in land use.

  1. Influence of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Planetary Wave Resonance and Extreme Weather Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Michael E.; Rahmstorf, Stefan; Kornhuber, Kai; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Coumou, Dim

    2017-01-01

    Persistent episodes of extreme weather in the Northern Hemisphere summer have been shown to be associated with the presence of high-amplitude quasi-stationary atmospheric Rossby waves within a particular wavelength range (zonal wavenumber 6–8). The underlying mechanistic relationship involves the phenomenon of quasi-resonant amplification (QRA) of synoptic-scale waves with that wavenumber range becoming trapped within an effective mid-latitude atmospheric waveguide. Recent work suggests an increase in recent decades in the occurrence of QRA-favorable conditions and associated extreme weather, possibly linked to amplified Arctic warming and thus a climate change influence. Here, we isolate a specific fingerprint in the zonal mean surface temperature profile that is associated with QRA-favorable conditions. State-of-the-art (“CMIP5”) historical climate model simulations subject to anthropogenic forcing display an increase in the projection of this fingerprint that is mirrored in multiple observational surface temperature datasets. Both the models and observations suggest this signal has only recently emerged from the background noise of natural variability. PMID:28345645

  2. Influence of forest fires on climate change studies in the central boreal forest of Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valeo, C.; Beaty, K.; Hesslein, R.

    2003-09-01

    This brief paper indicates that forest fires may have short and longer term effects on runoff and thus, can influence trend studies on the response of watersheds to climate change. Twenty-two watersheds at the Experimental Lakes Area in northwestern Ontario were studied to view the impacts of climatic variability and forest fires on runoff. A roughly 30 year database demonstrated few trends in climatological variables and even fewer trends in runoff data at the 5% significance level. Daily maximum temperature increased by 0.053 °C per year, while precipitation in the months of February and March showed significant decreases. Total snow showed a significant decrease over a 30 year period at the 8% significance level. The Mann Kendall test for trend was applied to the runoff indices of 19 watersheds and it was revealed that only six exhibited trends. Of these, five had been burned during the test period. Virtually all burned watersheds showed initial increases in runoff, however, long term runoff trended lower in the burned watersheds, while the one watershed that was not burned showed an increasing trend. Forest fires alter the age distribution of trees with subsequent impacts on water yields in the short and longer term.

  3. Infectious causes of sudden infant death syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfelali, Mohammad; Khandaker, Gulam

    2014-12-01

    Investigators have long suspected the role of infection in sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS). Evidence of infectious associations with SIDS is accentuated through the presence of markers of infection and inflammation on autopsy of SIDS infants and isolates of some bacteria and viruses. Several observational studies have looked into the relation between seasonality and incidence of SIDS, which often showed a winter peak. These all may suggest an infectious aetiology of SIDS. In this review we have summarised the current literature on infectious aetiologies of SIDS by looking at viral, bacterial, genetic and environmental factors which are believed to be associated with SIDS.

  4. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Høegh Ravn, Nanna; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2015-01-01

    owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984–2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes......The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme....... Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071–2100) are in the order of 40 and 100 %, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities’ exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate....

  5. Contact infection of infectious disease onboard a cruise ship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nan; Miao, Ruosong; Huang, Hong; Chan, Emily Y. Y.

    2016-12-01

    Cruise tourism has become more popular. Long-term personal contact, complex population flows, a lack of medical care facilities, and defective infrastructure aboard most cruise ships is likely to result in the ship becoming an incubator for infectious diseases. In this paper, we use a cruise ship as a research scenario. Taking into consideration personal behavior, the nature and transfer route of the virus across different surfaces, virus reproduction, and disinfection, we studied contact infection of infectious disease on a cruise ship. Using gastroenteritis caused by the norovirus as an example, we analyzed the characteristics of infectious disease propagation based on simulation results under different conditions. We found hand washing are the most important factors affecting virus propagation and passenger infection. It also decides either the total number of virus microorganisms or the virus distribution in different functional areas. The transfer rate between different surfaces is a key factor influencing the concentricity of the virus. A high transfer rate leads to high concentricity. In addition, the risk of getting infected is effectively reduced when the disinfection frequency is above a certain threshold. The efficiency of disinfection of functional areas is determined by total virus number and total contact times of surfaces.

  6. Resident microbiota affect Bordetella pertussis infectious dose and host specificity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weyrich, Laura S; Feaga, Heather A; Park, Jihye; Muse, Sarah J; Safi, Chetan Y; Rolin, Olivier Y; Young, Sarah E; Harvill, Eric T

    2014-03-01

    Before contacting host tissues, invading pathogens directly or indirectly interact with host microbiota, but the effects of such interactions on the initial stages of infection are poorly understood. Bordetella pertussis is highly infectious among humans but requires large doses to colonize rodents, unlike a closely related zoonotic pathogen, Bordetella bronchiseptica, raising important questions about the contributions of bacterial competition to initial colonization and host selection. We observed that <100 colony-forming units (CFU) of B. bronchiseptica efficiently infected mice and displaced culturable host microbiota, whereas 10 000 CFU of B. pertussis were required to colonize murine nasal cavities and did not displace host microorganisms. Bacteria isolated from murine nasal cavities but not those from the human lower respiratory tract limited B. pertussis growth in vitro, indicating that interspecies competition may limit B. pertussis colonization of mice. Further, a broad-spectrum antibiotic treatment delivered before B. pertussis inoculation reduced the infectious dose to <100 CFU, and reintroduction of single Staphylococcus or Klebsiella species was sufficient to inhibit B. pertussis colonization of antibiotic-treated mice. Together, these results reveal that resident microorganisms can prevent B. pertussis colonization and influence host specificity, and they provide rationale for manipulating microbiomes to create more-accurate animal models of infectious diseases.

  7. On the Identifiability of Transmission Dynamic Models for Infectious Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lintusaari, Jarno; Gutmann, Michael U; Kaski, Samuel; Corander, Jukka

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases is important for both biological research and public health applications. It has been widely demonstrated that statistical modeling provides a firm basis for inferring relevant epidemiological quantities from incidence and molecular data. However, the complexity of transmission dynamic models presents two challenges: (1) the likelihood function of the models is generally not computable, and computationally intensive simulation-based inference methods need to be employed, and (2) the model may not be fully identifiable from the available data. While the first difficulty can be tackled by computational and algorithmic advances, the second obstacle is more fundamental. Identifiability issues may lead to inferences that are driven more by prior assumptions than by the data themselves. We consider a popular and relatively simple yet analytically intractable model for the spread of tuberculosis based on classical IS6110 fingerprinting data. We report on the identifiability of the model, also presenting some methodological advances regarding the inference. Using likelihood approximations, we show that the reproductive value cannot be identified from the data available and that the posterior distributions obtained in previous work have likely been substantially dominated by the assumed prior distribution. Further, we show that the inferences are influenced by the assumed infectious population size, which generally has been kept fixed in previous work. We demonstrate that the infectious population size can be inferred if the remaining epidemiological parameters are already known with sufficient precision.

  8. Trains of Thought in Treating Infectious Atypical Pneumonia with Integrative Chinese and Western Medicine Approach

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    林琳

    2003-01-01

    @@ Infectious atypical pneumonia (also called severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS by WHO) is a new type of infectious disease, whose disease condition is fierce and ferocious, rapid in changing, seriously threatened human health and life. The author has treated around 200 SARS patients in Guangzhou and Hong Kong with integrative Chinese and western medicine (ICWM) approach from January 2003till present. Now I would like to make a comment on ICWM in treating SARS.

  9. Infectious Mononucleosis: Recognition and Management in Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichner, Edward R.

    1987-01-01

    Infectious mononucleosis strikes many young athletes. Considered here are its epidemiology, pathophysiology, diagnosis, natural course, complications, and management. The focus is on concerns of athletes with a perspective on personality, convalescence, and chronic fatigue. (Author/MT)

  10. A Holistic View of Emerging Infectious Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Himgauri K. Kulkarni

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Review of: Emerging Infectious Diseases: A Guide to Diseases, Causative Agents, and Surveillance; Lisa A. Beltz; (2011. Jossey-Bass, John Wiley and Sons, Inc. San Francisco, CA. 700 pages.

  11. Infectious disease management in primary care: perceptions of GPs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Röing Marta

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is important to keep the level of antibiotic prescribing low to contain the development of resistant bacteria. This study was conducted to reveal new knowledge about how GPs think in relation to the prescribing of antibiotics - knowledge that could be used in efforts toward rational treatment of infectious diseases in primary care. The aim was to explore and describe the variations in GPs' perceptions of infectious disease management, with special reference to antibiotic prescribing. Methods Twenty GPs working at primary care centres in a county in south-west Sweden were purposively selected based on the strategy of including GPs with different kinds of experience. The GPs were interviewed and perceptions among GPs were analysed by a phenomenographic approach. Results Five qualitatively different perceptions of infectious disease management were identified. They were: (A the GP must help the patient to achieve health and well-being; (B the management must meet the GP's perceived personal, professional and organisational demands; (C restrictive antibiotic prescribing is time-consuming; (D restrictive antibiotic prescribing can protect the effectiveness of antibiotics; and (E patients benefit personally from restrictive antibiotic prescribing. Conclusions Restrictive antibiotic prescribing was considered important in two perceptions, was not an issue as such in two others, and was considered in one perception although the actual prescribing was greatly influenced by the interaction between patient and GP. Accordingly, to encourage restrictive antibiotic prescribing several aspects must be addressed. Furthermore, different GPs need various kinds of support. Infectious disease management in primary care is complex and time-consuming, which must be acknowledged in healthcare organisation and planning.

  12. Impact on human health of climate changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franchini, Massimo; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate is rapidly changing. These changes, which are mainly driven by the dramatic increase of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic activities, have the potential to affect human health in several ways. These include a global rise in average temperature, an increased frequency of heat waves, of weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones and drought periods, plus an altered distribution of allergens and vector-borne infectious diseases. The cardiopulmonary system and the gastrointestinal tract are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of global warming. Moreover, some infectious diseases and their animal vectors are influenced by climate changes, resulting in higher risk of typhus, cholera, malaria, dengue and West Nile virus infection. On the other hand, at mid latitudes warming may reduce the rate of diseases related to cold temperatures (such as pneumonia, bronchitis and arthritis), but these benefits are unlikely to rebalance the risks associated to warming.

  13. Infectious Discitis and Spondylodiscitis in Children

    OpenAIRE

    Nicola Principi; Susanna Esposito

    2016-01-01

    In children, infectious discitis (D) and infectious spondylodiscitis (SD) are rare diseases that can cause significant clinical problems, including spinal deformities and segmental instabilities. Moreover, when the infection spreads into the spinal channel, D and SD can cause devastating neurologic complications. Early diagnosis and treatment may reduce these risks. The main aim of this paper is to discuss recent concepts regarding the epidemiology, microbiology, clinical presentation, diagno...

  14. Evaluation of influence of historical changes in land use along the middle Vistula river reach on flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karamuz, Emilia; Romanowicz, Renata; Booij, Martijn

    2014-05-01

    There is a vast literature on the influence of land use changes on rainfall-runoff processes. The problem is difficult as it requires separation of climatic and water management related changes from land use influences. The present paper addresses the problem of the influence of land use changes on maximum flows at cross-sections along the middle River Vistula reach. We adopt a methodology tested at the catchment scale, which consists of an optimisation of a rainfall-runoff model using a moving time horizon and analysis of the variability of model parameters. In the present application, it consists of an analysis of changes of roughness coefficients of a distributed HEC-RAS model, optimised using a moving five-year window. The chosen river reach (between Annopol and Gusin) has a recorded history of land use changes over 50 years (from 1949 to 2001), which included 36% of the study area. The nature of the changes is complex and shows different trends for different plant communities and sections of the valley. Generally, there has been a several percent increase in the area occupied by forests and grassland communities and a slight increase in the proportion of scrub. The first step of the procedure is to define the river reaches that have recorded information on land use changes. The second step is to perform a moving window optimisation of the HEC-RAS model for a chosen river reach. In order to assess the influence of land use changes on maximum flow values, the goodness-of-fit of the simulation of annual maximum water levels is used as an optimisation criterion. In this way the influence of land use changes on maximum inundation extent related to flood risk assessment can be estimated. The final step is to analyse the results and relate the model parameter changes to historical land use changes. We report here the results of the first two steps of the procedure. This work was partly supported from the project "Stochastic flood forecasting system (The River Vistula

  15. Change in fibrinolytic activity under the influence of a constant magnetic field. [blood coagulation normilization in heart patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yepishina, S. G.

    1974-01-01

    The fibrinolytic activity of plasma changes under the influence of a constant magnetic field (CMF) with a strength of 250 or 2500 oersteds. CMF shows a tendency toward normalization of fibrinolytic processes in the presence of pathological disturbances in fibrinolysis activation.

  16. Organization changes of the university’s corporate culture under the influence of the social Internet communications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selyutin Andrey

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the article the definition of the term "corporate culture of the university" is refined and supplemented. It is noted that the traditional understanding does not reflect the fundamental changes taking place in the education system and interpersonal relationships of teachers and students of the university, and that undoubtedly have a significant influence on the corporate culture of the university formation

  17. How emotional media reports influence attitude formation and change: the interplay of attitude base, attitude certainty and persuasion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ryffel, F.A.; Wirz, D.S.; Kühne, R.; Wirth, W.

    2014-01-01

    This study examined the influence of an emotionally arousing writing style on attitude formation and change. It has been proposed that different writing styles induce attitudes based on either affect or cognition and with either high or low certainty. Previous work indicates that the interplay of th

  18. The Influence of a Record Heat Wave on Environmental Change in Barrow, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanitski, Diane; Cox, Christopher; Stone, Robert; Divoky, George

    2016-04-01

    The May 2015 average temperature at the NOAA Global Monitoring Division's Barrow Observatory (BRW), Alaska, set a 90+ year record high, averaging -2.2°C (28°F), nearly 5°C (9°F) above average. The 2015 spring transition in Barrow was notable with the second earliest date of snow melt on record (JD148, May 28) and earliest ice free conditions on a local lagoon (JD178, June 27). Anomalous early snowmelt was also observed at nearby Cooper Island where a colony of sea birds, the Black Guillemot, nests each year once snow disappears. The appearance of "first egg" is well correlated with the date of snowmelt at BRW (Fig. 1), as is the ice-out date at the Isaktoak Lagoon (ISK). In 2015, the first egg was observed on JD159 (June 8), the earliest in the 40-year record (source: Friends of Cooper Island, http://cooperisland.org/). The 2015 melt at BRW was very early due mainly to an unusually intense heat wave affecting all of Alaska. Each day of advance in the melt date at BRW results in an annual net radiation increase at the surface of about 1%. The documented changes can influence biogeochemical cycles, permafrost temperatures, and potentially the release of stored carbon. BRW permafrost temperatures were warmer than the three previous years; the active layer depth (ALD) was ~6 cm deeper in 2015 than in 2014; and the temperature at 120 cm was ~0.5°C warmer. The anomalous warmth that prevailed during spring 2015 can be primarily attributed to atmospheric circulation. Abnormal warmth of the North Pacific and a perturbed jet stream underlie the heat wave and advection of warm air into the Arctic. Warming was likely amplified locally as the early melting of snow increased absorption of solar radiation. Key factors contributing to the anomalous 2015 spring at BRW and the impact early melt had on the 2015 summer surface radiation budget will be discussed. The role of circulation anomalies reported by reanalysis data over the course of the Barrow observational record will

  19. Against the Grain: The Influence of Changing Agricultural Management on the Earth System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, J. A.

    2007-12-01

    The rise of modern agriculture was one of the most transformative events in human history, and has forever changed our relationship to the natural world. By clearing tropical forests, practicing subsistence agriculture on marginal lands and intensifying industrialized farmland production, agricultural practices are changing the worldês landscapes in pervasive ways. In the past decade, we have made tremendous progress in monitoring agricultural expansion from satellites, and modeling associated environmental impacts. In the past decade, the Earth System Science research community has begun to recognize the importance of agricultural lands, particularly as they continue expanding at the expense of important natural ecosystems, potentially altering the planetês carbon cycle and climate. With the advent of new remote sensing and global modeling methods, several efforts have documented the expansion of agricultural lands, the corresponding loss of natural ecosystems, and how this may influence the earth system. But the geographic expansion of agricultural lands is not the whole story. While significant agricultural expansion (or extensification) has occurred in the past few decades, the intensification of agricultural practices Ð under the aegis of the -Green Revolution" Ð has dramatically altered the relationship between humans and environmental systems across the world. Simply put, many of the worldês existing agricultural lands are being used much more intensively as opportunities for agricultural expansion are being exhausted elsewhere. In the last 40 years, global agricultural production has more than doubled Ð although global cropland has increased by only 12% Ð mainly through the use of high yielding varieties of grain, increased reliance on irrigation, massive increases in chemical fertilization, and increased mechanization. Indeed, in the past 40 years there has been a 700% increase in global fertilizer use and a 70% increase in irrigated cropland area

  20. The Analysis of Road Networks' Influences on the Changes of Landuse in Fujian Province, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PAN Li-juan

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Based on the changes of landuse in Fujian Province during 2000-2010, this research used the buffer analysis to define the areas impacted by the road networks. Then, the study used the correlation analysis to achieve the relationship between the density of road networks and landuse transformation in the impacted areas under the different scales. Also, the terrain features of landuse conversion were analyzed. Finally, the threshold of road networks' density was achieved. The results showed that road networks' range of influence was 1 000 m, and the road construction in Fujian Province was one of the reasons that caused the following transformations: forest transformation to construction, shrub transformation to construction, wetland transformation to construction, farmland transformation to construction. According to the terrain features of landuse transformation under different scales, the following results were obtained: the transformation from forest to construction happened in the altitude of 230~360 m, the transformation from shrub to construction happened in the altitude of 100~180 m, the transforma-tion from wetland to construction happened in the altitude of 60~100 m, the transformation from farmland to construction happened in the al-titude of 110~200 m, the changes of landuse occurred in the south slope beneath 7°; According to the threshold of road networks' density, the study achieved the following results: the threshold of the transformation from forest to construction was between 1.98 km·km-2 and 2.27 km· km-2, the threshold of the transformation from shrub to construction was between 2.29 km·km-2 and 2.92 km·km-2, the threshold of the trans-formation from wetland to construction was between 2.61 km·km-2 and 3.01 km·km-2, the threshold of the transformation from farmland to construction was between 2.23 km·km-2 and 2.98 km·km-2.

  1. Gaseous mercury fluxes in peatlands and the potential influence of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haynes, Kristine M.; Kane, Evan S.; Potvin, Lynette; Lilleskov, Erik A.; Kolka, Randall K.; Mitchell, Carl P. J.

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has the potential to significantly impact the stability of large stocks of mercury (Hg) stored in peatland systems due to increasing temperatures, altered water table regimes and subsequent shifts in vascular plant communities. However, the Hg exchange dynamics between the atmosphere and peatlands are not well understood. At the PEATcosm Mesocosm Facility in Houghton, Michigan, total gaseous Hg (TGM) fluxes were monitored in a subset of 1-m3 peat monoliths with altered water table positions (high and low) and vascular plant functional groups (sedge only, Ericaceae only or unmanipulated control) above the Sphagnum moss layer. At the SPRUCE bog in north-central Minnesota, TGM fluxes were measured from plots subjected to deep peat soil warming (up to +9 °C above ambient at a depth of 2 m). At PEATcosm, the strongest depositional trend was observed with the Low WT - sedge only treatment mesocosms with a mean TGM flux of -73.7 ± 6.3 ng m-2 d-1, likely due to shuttling of Hg to the peat at depth by aerenchymous tissues. The highest total leaf surface and tissue Hg concentrations were observed with the Ericaceae shrubs. A negative correlation between TGM flux and Ericaceae total leaf surface area suggests an influence of shrubs in controlling Hg exchange through stomatal uptake, surface sorption and potentially, peat shading. Surface peat total Hg concentrations are highest in treatments with greatest deposition suggesting deposition controls Hg accumulation in surface peat. Fluxes in the SPRUCE plots ranged from -45.9 ± 93.8 ng m-2 d-1 prior to the implementation of the deep warming treatments to -1.41 ± 27.1 ng m-2 d-1 once warming targets were achieved at depth and +10.2 ± 44.6 ng m-2 d-1 following prolonged deep soil warming. While these intervals did not differ significantly, a significant positive increase in the slope of the regression between flux and surface temperature was observed across the pre-treatment and warming periods. Shifts in

  2. [Globalization and infectious diseases: the past and future].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scotto, Gaetano

    2011-03-01

    Globalization is a widely-used term that can be defined in a number of different ways. When used in an economic context, it refers to the reduction and removal of barriers between national borders in order to facilitate the flow of goods, capital, services and labour. Globalization is not a new phenomenon. Today the concept of globalization can be extended to include global exposure to infectious diseases, which is becoming more apparent. The aim of this article is to examine the influence of globalization on the outbreak and spread of infections in the world.

  3. The influence of compression level and inoculation on biochemical changes in lucerne silages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đorđević Nenad Ž.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of different levels of compression (A1 = 420 gdm-1, A2 = 560 gdm-1 and inoculation (B1 = no inoculant, B2 = with inoculant on changes in chemical composition, proteolysis and quality of lucerne silage was investigated in this paper. Based on the results of chemical analysis we found that in silages with more compressed material there was a reduction in the amount of ammonia nitrogen, soluble nitrogen and acetic acid, and increased content of protein nitrogen (‘true’protein and production of lactic acid (p<0.05. With the inoculation of the ensiling material the production of ammonia nitrogen and acetic acid was reduced but the content of lactic acid and acidity was increased (p<0.05. The interaction of both investigated factors (A×B induced a decrease in the proteolysis degree, increase of lactic acid production and decrease in acetic acid production, and decrease in pH values (p<0.001 in investigated silages. The investigated factors had less influence on the chemical composition of lucerne material, and the significant variations were observed in fat and NFE contents. On the basis of this investigation the degree of compression is the most important parameter in ensiling technology. With the adequate compression and reduction of air in the starting material, the aerobic phase is reduced and the activity of proeolytic enzymes is decreased. In practice the special attention should be given to factors on which directly or indirectly the level of compression of ensiled material depends: wilting, cutting, object selection and/or selection of machines used for compression.

  4. Influence of Climatic Changes and Human Activities on the Salinization Process of Coastal Aquifer Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitra Rapti-Caputo

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available In the present research, two arid coastal zones of the Mediterranean region (mean annual precipitation about 440 mm/a, have been investigated for evaluating the qualitative and quantitative impact of both human activities and climatic changes on the groundwater resources and the hydrological cycle in general. In particular, the hydrographic network of the Akrotiri (Cyprus coastal aquifer system is strongly controlled by engineering handicrafts that have induced a quality worsening of the groundwater resources. Due to over-pumping in the central sector of the area, a lowering of the piezometric level of about 15 m has been observed. As a consequence, a salinization process has occurred in the coastal sector with a mean annual salinization velocity of the salty water front varying between 47 and 97 cm/a (period 1964-1996. Due to the high salinity values, the water is at present unsuitable for irrigation use. The second case study is represented by the alluvial plain of Licata (southern Sicily, Italy, where the evolution of the Salso River (in Italian the name means ’Salty River’ and the coastal dynamics, characterised by repeated marine transgressions and regressions, qualitatively and quantitatively influenced the underground water resources. Also the anthropogenic activities played a crucial role, especially the farming activity as it is largely documented by the occurrence of numerous greenhouses covering most of the plain. The water depth of the unconfined, mainly sandy, aquifer developed in the Quaternary deposits is between 0.3 m and locally 5 m from the surface, while the principal alimentation occurs via infiltration from precipitations and lateral outflow from the Salso River.

  5. Characterization and nutrient release from silicate rocks and influence on chemical changes in soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas Ramos Guelfi Silva

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of Brazilian agriculture has led to a heavy dependence on imported fertilizers to ensure the supply of the growing food demand. This fact has contributed to a growing interest in alternative nutrient sources, such as ground silicate rocks. It is necessary, however, to know the potential of nutrient release and changes these materials can cause in soils. The purpose of this study was to characterize six silicate rocks and evaluate their effects on the chemical properties of treated soil, assessed by chemical extractants after greenhouse incubation. The experimental design consisted of completely randomized plots, in a 3 x 6 factorial scheme, with four replications. The factors were potassium levels (0-control: without silicate rock application; 200; 400; 600 kg ha-1 of K2O, supplied as six silicate rock types (breccia, biotite schist, ultramafic rock, phlogopite schist and two types of mining waste. The chemical, physical and mineralogical properties of the alternative rock fertilizers were characterized. Treatments were applied to a dystrophic Red-Yellow Oxisol (Ferralsol, which was incubated for 100 days, at 70 % (w/w moisture in 3.7 kg/pots. The soil was evaluated for pH; calcium and magnesium were extracted with KCl 1 mol L-1; potassium, phosphorus and sodium by Mehlich 1; nickel, copper and zinc with DTPA; and the saturation of the cation exchange capacity was calculated for aluminum, calcium, magnesium, potassium, and sodium, and overall base saturation. The alternative fertilizers affected soil chemical properties. Ultramafic rock and Chapada mining byproduct (CMB were the silicate rocks that most influenced soil pH, while the mining byproduct (MB led to high K levels. Zinc availability was highest in the treatments with mining byproduct and Cu in soil fertilized with Chapada and mining byproduct.

  6. Pathology influences blood pressure change following vagal stimulation in an animal intubation model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Jones

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: The haemodynamic response to critical care intubation is influenced by the use of sedation and relaxant drugs and the activation of the vagal reflex. It has been hypothesized that different disease states may have a contrasting effect on the cardiovascular response to vagal stimulation. Our objective was to determine whether the blood pressure response to vagal stimulation was modified by endotoxaemia or hypovolaemia. METHODS: New Zealand White rabbits were anaesthetised with urethane before tracheotomy. The exposed left Vagus nerve of randomised groups of control (n = 11, endotoxin (n = 11, 1 mg/kg, hypovolaemia 40% (n = 8 and hypovolaemia 20% (n = 8 rabbits were subjected to 10 Hz pulsed electrical stimulations of 25 s duration every 15 min. Haemodynamic parameters were recorded from a catheter in the right carotid artery connected to an iWorx monitor. Serum catecholamines were measured every 30 min using reverse-phase ion-pairing liquid chromatography. The change in blood pressure after vagal stimulation was compared to controls for one hour after the first death in the experimental groups. RESULTS: 29% of the rabbits died in the hypovolaemia 40% group and 27% in the endotoxin group. One rabbit died in the hypovolaemia 40% group before vagal stimulation and was excluded. Following electrical stimulation of the Vagus nerve there was a fall in blood pressure in control rabbits. Blood pressure was conserved in the hypovolaemic rabbits compared to controls (p<0.01. For the endotoxaemic rabbits, there was a non-significant trend for the mean blood pressure to decrease more than the controls. Serum catecholamines were significantly raised in both the hypovolaemic and endotoxaemic rabbits. CONCLUSIONS: Pathology may contribute to modifications in blood pressure when vagal activation occurs. Patients who are either already vasoconstricted, or not vasoplegic, may be less at risk from intubation-related vagally mediated

  7. Magnetic Resonance Image Evaluation of Temporomandibular Joint Osteophytes: Influence of Clinical Factors and Artrogenics Changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossmann, Eduardo; Remedi, Marcelo Pereira; Ferreira, Luciano Ambrosio; Carvalho, Antonio Carlos Pires

    2016-03-01

    This research aims to examine the presence of osteophyte in patients with arthrogenic temporomandibular disorders through magnetic resonance imaging (MRI); to investigate the influence of sex and clinical symptoms in its prevalence; and the position of the osteophytes in the condyle. The study was based on 100 MRI and on reports of patients, which corresponded to the evaluation of 200 joints. Patients of both sexes were aged from 18 to 82 years (average = 49.48) and were subjected to the aforementioned examination from January 2006 to March 2009. The assessment considered the type of disc displacement, the presence of effusion, bone marrow edema, condyle changes, joint noise and pain. The MRI machine used was the GE Signa HDX (General Electric, Milwaukee, WI), with T1 and T2-weighted, 1.5 T magnetic field, sagittal oblique (mouth closed, mouth open) and coronal (mouth closed) imaging, with spherical surface coil and an asymmetric matrix. All images were interpreted by an experienced radiologist. A total of 28% (n = 56) of the temporomandibular joints showed osteophytes on the anterior surface of the mandible. No relationship was found between sex and osteophytes. The authors found a statistically significant difference between osteophytes and disc displacement without reduction (P < 0.001). The presence of osteophytes suggested a possible cause and effect relationship between osteoarthritis and disc displacement without reduction; the osteophyte was always located in the anterior surface of condyle, regardless of the sex variable; no significant difference was found between osteophytes and the main complaints of the patient.

  8. The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haak, A.L.; Williams, J.E.; Isaak, D.; Todd, A.; Muhlfeld, C.C.; Kershner, J.L.; Gresswell, R.E.; Hostetler, S.W.; Neville, H.M.

    2010-01-01

    streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch

  9. Dynamic changes in corneal topography and its influence on the point-spread function of the eye

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siedlecki, Damian; Kasprzak, Henryk; Pierscionek, Barbara K.

    2007-03-01

    The dynamic changes of the anterior surface of the eye are investigated. A Twyman-Green interferometer is used to record topographic images at 40 ms intervals. A method of analysis of the dynamic changes in topography by use of Zernike polynomials enables a general distinction to be made between dynamic alterations in the shape of the cornea itself and the changes in the layer of the tears. The influence of deviations in the shape of the anterior surface of the eye on the retinal image is estimated.

  10. Soil management and carbon calculation methods influence changes in soil carbon estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Throughout the years, many studies have evaluated changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) mass on a fixed-depth (FD) basis without considering changes in soil mass caused by changing in bulk density. In two study sites, we investigated the effect of different management practices on SOC changes calcul...

  11. NCAR activities related to translating climate and weather information into infectious-disease and other public-health early warnings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, T.; Monaghan, A.; Hopson, T.

    2010-09-01

    The atmosphere can influence the spread of human and agricultural infectious diseases through a number of different mechanisms, including the effect of the atmosphere on the health of the pathogen itself, the health and number of disease vectors, human behavior, wind transport, and flooding. Through knowledge of the statistical or physical relationships between disease incidence, for example outbreaks, and weather or climate conditions, it is possible to translate predictions of the atmosphere into predictions of disease spread or incidence. Medium range forecasts of weeks can allow redistribution of vaccines and medical personnel to locations that will be in greatest need. Inter-seasonal forecasts, e.g. based on the ENSO cycle, can provide long-lead-time information for disease early-warning systems, which can guide the manufacture of vaccines and inform aid agencies about future requirements. And knowledge of longer-term trends in climate conditions, associated, for example, with increases in green-house gases, can be used for development of infectious-disease mitigation and prevention policies. Because of the existence of complex physical, biological, and societal aspects to the links between atmospheric conditions and disease, prediction systems must be constructed based on knowledge of multiple disciplines. To be described in the presentation are activities at the National Center for Atmospheric Research that involve the coupling of atmospheric models with infectious-disease models and decision-support systems. These include 1) the use of operational multi-week weather forecasts to estimate the spatial and temporal variability of the threat of bacterial meningitis in West Africa, 2) climate and spatial risk modeling of human plague in Uganda, 3) a study of how climate variability and human landscape modification interact to influence key aspects of both mosquito vector ecology and human behavior, and how they influence the increased incidence of dengue fever

  12. Influence of climate and land use change on spatially resolved volatilization of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) from background soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komprda, Jiří; Komprdová, Klára; Sáňka, Milan; Možný, Martin; Nizzetto, Luca

    2013-07-01

    The subject of this study is the assessment of the influence of climate and land use change on the potential re-emission of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) from background and agricultural soils. A deterministic spatially and temporally explicit model of the air-surface exchange was created, fed with distributed data of soil and atmospheric concentrations from real measurements, and run under various scenarios of temperature and land use change for a case study area representative of central European conditions. To describe land use influence, some important features were implemented including effect of plowing, influence of land cover, temperature of soil, and seasonal changes of air layer stability. Results show that volatilization of pesticides from soil largely exceeded dry gas deposition in most of the area. Agricultural soils accounted for more than 90% of the total re-emissions both because of the generally higher soil fugacities (higher loads of chemicals and relatively low organic carbon content), but also due to physical characteristics and land management practices enhancing the dynamics of the exchange. An increase of 1 °C in air temperature produced an increase of 8% in the averaged total volatilization flux, however this effect can be neutralized by a change of land use of 10% of the arable lands to grassland or forest, which is consistent with projected land use change in Europe. This suggests that future assessment of climate impact on POP fate and distribution should take into consideration land use aspects.

  13. The climate influence of anthropogenic land-use changes on near-surface wind energy potential in China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Yan; WANG Yuan; CHU HuiYun; TANG JianPing

    2008-01-01

    There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on wind energy in China. The climate change of near-surface wind energy potential in China under the background of global warming and its association with anthropogenic land-use changes are investigated by calculating the difference in surface wind speeds between the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observations since the re-analysis dataset contains the influence of large-scale climate changes due to greenhouse gases, it is less sensitive to regional surface processes associated with land types. The surface wind data in this study consist of long-tarm observations from 604 Chinese Roution Meteorological Stations and theNCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1960-1999. The results suggest that the observed mean wind speeds significantly weakened and the near-surface wind power trended downward due to urbanization and other land-use changes in the last 40 years. The mean wind energy weakened by -3.84 W·m-2 per decade due to the influence of anthropogenic land-use change, which is close to the observed climate change (-4.51 W·m-2/10 a).

  14. [Correction of tetralogy of Fallot and its influence to oxygen transport and lung changes. Part II: Lung changes (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reichart, B; Brunner, L; Hügel, W; Klinner, W; Weinhold, C; Westerburg, K W; Heinze, G

    1977-02-01

    22 children got lung scans 3 weeks respectively 12 months after the correction of a tetralogy of Fallot. In 18 cases previous operations were done: 12 times a Blalock-Taussig shunt and 6 times a Brock procedure. For the scan 20-70 mu diameter albumin macrospheres were used, which were labeled with Technetium 99m. The following pathologicla lung changes were seen: 1. Loss of perfusion, typical after Blalock-Taussig shunt procedure; these findings were always on the left side, the site of the anastomosis. 2. Anomalous flow distrubution (=more spheres in the upper than in the lower lobe) in the left lung; these changes were also caused by the Blalock-Taussing shunts, but disappeared within the one year follow-up after the correction. 3. Intrapulmonary rigt-left shunts (according to the dilatation of the alveolar capillaries). These decreased within one year from 9.9+/-1.3 to 4.6+/-0.9%.

  15. Spontaneous generation of infectious prion disease in transgenic mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Juan-María; Castilla, Joaquín; Pintado, Belén; Gutiérrez-Adan, Alfonso; Andréoletti, Olivier; Aguilar-Calvo, Patricia; Arroba, Ana-Isabel; Parra-Arrondo, Beatriz; Ferrer, Isidro; Manzanares, Jorge; Espinosa, Juan-Carlos

    2013-12-01

    We generated transgenic mice expressing bovine cellular prion protein (PrP(C)) with a leucine substitution at codon 113 (113L). This protein is homologous to human protein with mutation 102L, and its genetic link with Gerstmann-Sträussler-Scheinker syndrome has been established. This mutation in bovine PrP(C) causes a fully penetrant, lethal, spongiform encephalopathy. This genetic disease was transmitted by intracerebral inoculation of brain homogenate from ill mice expressing mutant bovine PrP to mice expressing wild-type bovine PrP, which indicated de novo generation of infectious prions. Our findings demonstrate that a single amino acid change in the PrP(C) sequence can induce spontaneous generation of an infectious prion disease that differs from all others identified in hosts expressing the same PrP(C) sequence. These observations support the view that a variety of infectious prion strains might spontaneously emerge in hosts displaying random genetic PrP(C) mutations.

  16. A cellular automaton framework for infectious disease spread simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeifer, Bernhard; Kugler, Karl; Tejada, Maria M; Baumgartner, Christian; Seger, Michael; Osl, Melanie; Netzer, Michael; Handler, Michael; Dander, Andreas; Wurz, Manfred; Graber, Armin; Tilg, Bernhard

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a cellular automaton framework for processing the spatiotemporal spread of infectious diseases is presented. The developed environment simulates and visualizes how infectious diseases might spread, and hence provides a powerful instrument for health care organizations to generate disease prevention and contingency plans. In this study, the outbreak of an avian flu like virus was modeled in the state of Tyrol, and various scenarios such as quarantine, effect of different medications on viral spread and changes of social behavior were simulated.The proposed framework is implemented using the programming language Java. The set up of the simulation environment requires specification of the disease parameters and the geographical information using a population density colored map, enriched with demographic data.The results of the numerical simulations and the analysis of the computed parameters will be used to get a deeper understanding of how the disease spreading mechanisms work, and how to protect the population from contracting the disease. Strategies for optimization of medical treatment and vaccination regimens will also be investigated using our cellular automaton framework.In this study, six different scenarios were simulated. It showed that geographical barriers may help to slow down the spread of an infectious disease, however, when an aggressive and deadly communicable disease spreads, only quarantine and controlled medical treatment are able to stop the outbreak, if at all.

  17. Node discovery in meta-population network behind infectious disease outbreak

    CERN Document Server

    Maeno, Yoshiharu

    2010-01-01

    Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. Populations in a combination of epidemiological compartment models and a meta-population network model are described by stochastic differential equations. The presented method solves a node discovery problem to identify the nodes within a given dataset which are directly influenced by an unknown neighboring node during the spread. The dataset is either the time sequence data on the number of infectious persons or new cases in the early growth phase of an infectious disease outbreak. The network topology and transmission parameters are revealed by the maximal likelihood estimation. The degree of influence on individual nodes from an unknown origin is calculated with the technique of the extreme sequence detection given the revealed topology and parameters. The method is tested with computationally synthesized datasets and the WHO dataset on SARS outbreak.

  18. Global biogeography of human infectious diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, Kris A; Preston, Nicholas; Allen, Toph; Zambrana-Torrelio, Carlos; Hosseini, Parviez R; Daszak, Peter

    2015-10-13

    The distributions of most infectious agents causing disease in humans are poorly resolved or unknown. However, poorly known and unknown agents contribute to the global burden of disease and will underlie many future disease risks. Existing patterns of infectious disease co-occurrence could thus play a critical role in resolving or anticipating current and future disease threats. We analyzed the global occurrence patterns of 187 human infectious diseases across 225 countries and seven epidemiological classes (human-specific, zoonotic, vector-borne, non-vector-borne, bacterial, viral, and parasitic) to show that human infectious diseases exhibit distinct spatial grouping patterns at a global scale. We demonstrate, using outbreaks of Ebola virus as a test case, that this spatial structuring provides an untapped source of prior information that could be used to tighten the focus of a range of health-related research and management activities at early stages or in data-poor settings, including disease surveillance, outbreak responses, or optimizing pathogen discovery. In examining the correlates of these spatial patterns, among a range of geographic, epidemiological, environmental, and social factors, mammalian biodiversity was the strongest predictor of infectious disease co-occurrence overall and for six of the seven disease classes examined, giving rise to a striking congruence between global pathogeographic and "Wallacean" zoogeographic patterns. This clear biogeographic signal suggests that infectious disease assemblages remain fundamentally constrained in their distributions by ecological barriers to dispersal or establishment, despite the homogenizing forces of globalization. Pathogeography thus provides an overarching context in which other factors promoting infectious disease emergence and spread are set.

  19. A statistical modelling study of the abrupt millennial-scale climate changes focusing on the influence of external forcings

    CERN Document Server

    Mitsui, Takahito

    2015-01-01

    Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events are abrupt millennial-scale climate changes mainly detected in the North Atlantic region during the last glacial cycle. The frequency of the DO events varied in time, supposedly because of changes in background climate conditions. Here, we investigate the influences of external forcings on DO events with statistical modelling. We assume two types of generic stochastic dynamical systems models (double-well potential-type and oscillator-type), forced by the northern hemisphere summer insolation change and/or the global ice volume change. The models are calibrated by maximizing their likelihood and compared using the Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). Among the models, the stochastic oscillator model forced by both insolation and ice volume changes is favored by the NGRIP calcium ion data. The BIC scores provide positive evidence for the ice volume forcing in the presence of the insolation forcing but weak evidence for the insolation forcing in the presence of the ice volume for...

  20. Influence of atmospheric ice nucleus concentrations on cold cloud radiant properties and cold cloud reflectivity changes in past years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2006-01-01

    PAL satellite dataset which have long temporal span is used in the study. Relationship between cold cloud reflectivity and aerosol concentration in Beijing is analyzed as an example. From analysis, cold cloud reflectivity is found to be well correlated with aerosol optical depth. Meanwhile, it is retro-correlated with surface visibility. The results mean that cold cloud reflectivity is possibly influenced by ice nucleus concentration changes. Analysis about cold cloud reflectivity changes during the period 1982-1999 in Beijing shows that reflectivity increases in earlier years and decreases in later years. The data of cold cloud reflectivity in China show that reflectivity in some regions has changed. For the reason that cold cloud is very important in global climate system, those changes of cold cloud reflectivity can lead to climate changes finally.

  1. Infectious disease transmission and behavioural allometry in wild mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Barbara A; Park, Andrew W; Jolles, Anna E; Altizer, Sonia

    2015-05-01

    Animals' social and movement behaviours can impact the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, especially for pathogens transmitted through close contact between hosts or through contact with infectious stages in the environment. Estimating pathogen transmission rates and R0 from natural systems can be challenging. Because host behavioural traits that underlie the transmission process vary predictably with body size, one of the best-studied traits among animals, body size might therefore also predict variation in parasite transmission dynamics. Here, we examine how two host behaviours, social group living and the intensity of habitat use, scale allometrically using comparative data from wild primate, carnivore and ungulate species. We use these empirical relationships to parameterize classical compartment models for infectious micro- and macroparasitic diseases, and examine how the risk of pathogen invasion changes as a function of host behaviour and body size. We then test model predictions using comparative data on parasite prevalence and richness from wild mammals. We report a general pattern suggesting that smaller-bodied mammal species utilizing home ranges more intensively experience greater risk for invasion by environmentally transmitted macroparasites. Conversely, larger-bodied hosts exhibiting a high degree of social group living could be more readily invaded by directly transmitted microparasites. These trends were supported through comparison of micro- and macroparasite species richness across a large number of carnivore, primate and ungulate species, but empirical data on carnivore macroparasite prevalence showed mixed results. Collectively, our study demonstrates that combining host behavioural traits with dynamical models of infectious disease scaled against host body size can generate testable predictions for variation in parasite risk across species; a similar approach might be useful in future work focused on predicting parasite

  2. Some aspects of pathogenesis of infectious hematopoietic necrosis (IHN)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yasutake, William T.; Amend, Donald F.

    1972-01-01

    The histopathogenesis of infectious haematopoietic necrosis (IHN) virus infection was studied by exposing juvenile sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) to the IHN virus. Fish samples were taken every 24 h for histological examination and for determination of virus concentration. A close correlation was found between histopathological changes and virus concentration. The most significant changes occurred 4 days after exposure. The haematopocitic tissue of the kidney was the most extensively involved but minor degenerative changes were seen in the liver, pancreas, and in the granular cells of the digestive tract. On the 4th day, maximum tissue concentration of virus was reached and the mortality increased. By the 5th day, 90% of the samples showed extensive pathological changes in the kidney, together with variable changes in spleen, liver, pancreas, and gut. Similarities in the histopathogenesis of IHN, Oregon sockeye disease (OSD), Sacramento River chinook disease (SRCD) and viral haemorrhagic septicaemia (VHS), are discussed.

  3. Influence of Anthropogenic Land-Use Change on Hillslope Erosion in the Waipaoa River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cerovski-Darriau, C.; Roering, J. J.

    2015-12-01

    European settlement of the North Island, New Zealand resulted in deforestation of >90% of the landscape followed by conversion to pastureland. The resulting loss of vegetation cover triggered a sharp increase in hillslope erosion as widespread earthflow complexes and gully systems developed on the weak marine sedimentary lithologies in the Waipaoa River basin. However, the rate and volume of hillslope degradation due to land-use change has not been quantified. Using a 1955-2013 decadal sequence of aerial photographs for a ~16 km2 sub-catchment, we mapped the spatial extent of active landslides and then created a 'turf index' to relate the amount of ground disruption to average downslope velocity. The sub-catchment is predominately comprised of a weak mélange of highly sheared mudstone and riddled with pervasive earthflows that often span from ridgetop to the channel, dissected by gullies. We separated the landslides into three turf classes based on the spectral signature of the landslide, which relates to the style of ground disruption. Based on the movement of trees and other features, we assigned velocities to each class. The resulting three landslide categories are: 1) little to no disrupted ground that averaged ≤1 m/yr, 2) a mix of disrupted ground and intact blocks that averaged 2-5 m/yr, and 3) no intact blocks or vegetation that averaged ≥5 m/yr. We then calculated the average annual sediment flux based on the corresponding turf index, landslide depth, and length along the channel or gully. Using an average toe depth of 4.4 ± 1.3 m (avg ± sd) determined from field measurements of 37 earthflows, we calculated a sub-catchment averaged erosion rate of up to 23 mm/yr (for 1955). Despite evidence that >99% of the terrain is covered by post-LGM landslides, only 38% is active in 1955 (and that proportion is decreasing through time—seemingly correlated with localized reforestation). Compared with long-term (post-18 ka) erosion rates from this catchment (1

  4. Earth Sciences Changed Influence on the Public Policy Process, or How Congress Stopped Communicating with Geologists

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCurdy, K. M.

    2005-12-01

    Measured in political capital, the latter third of the twentieth century was tough for geoscientists. Federal funding for geoscience research and development decreased between 1960 and 2000. Furthermore, although funds devoted to natural resources remained stable as a proportion of total federal expenditures over the same time, they declined by a factor of ten in proportion to the GDP in constant dollars. The size of the natural resource industry sector of the economy declined, as did the number of employed geologists. Geologists even disappeared as a separate category in federal statistical reports by 2000. Each of these indicators tells a portion of the story of how and why Congress stopped communicating with geologists as well as other physical scientists. Changes within the institution of Congress (e.g., lengthened careers, candidate centered politics, and the rise of conservatism) in the 1970s and 1980s resulted in economic expertise replacing the scientific. At the same time, while research and development in the geosciences required larger budgets, the practical application of the discoveries became less obvious to the public. When this was added to the rise of environmental protection in public policy geology was rendered politically vulnerable. Geologists were easily perceived by political actors as the old guard, which made them part of the problem. The hard won favored position held by geology at mid-twentieth century, built by leaders such as Powell, Nolan, and Peck evaporated as national policy shifted from resource exploitation to preservation. The language of the policy debate also shifted, with geologists moving quickly from insiders to outsiders in the policy game. Further compounding the situation, and possibly catalyzing it was the politicization of scientific expertise written into environmental preservation legislation in the 1970s. The high-level nuclear waste site selection process at Yucca Mountain is but one example of Congress passing the

  5. 78 FR 58322 - National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; Notice of Closed Meetings

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-23

    ... personal privacy. Name of Committee: Microbiology, Infectious Diseases and AIDS Initial Review Group, Microbiology and Infectious Diseases B Subcommittee, Microbiology & Infectious Diseases B Subcommittee (MID-B...: Microbiology, Infectious Diseases and AIDS Initial Review Group, Microbiology and Infectious Diseases...

  6. Influence of changes in humidity on dry temperature in GPS RO climatologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Danzer

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Radio occultation (RO data are increasingly used in climate research. Accurate phase (change measurements of Global Positioning System (GPS signals are the basis for the retrieval of near-vertical profiles of bending angle, microwave refractivity, density, pressure, and temperature. If temperature is calculated from observed refractivity with the assumption that water vapor is zero, the product is called "dry temperature", which is commonly used to study earth's atmosphere, e.g., when analyzing temperature trends due to global warming. Dry temperature is a useful quantity, since it does not need additional background information in its retrieval. However, it can only be safely used as proxy for physical temperature, where moisture is negligible. The altitude region above which water vapor does not play a dominant role anymore, depends primarily on latitude and season. In this study we first investigated the influence of water vapor on dry temperature RO profiles. Hence, we analyzed the maximum altitude down to which monthly mean dry temperature profiles can be regarded as being equivalent to physical temperature. This was done by examining dry temperature to physical temperature differences of monthly mean analysis fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF, studied from 2006 until 2010. We introduced cutoff criteria, where maximum temperature differences of −0.1, −0.05, and −0.02 K were allowed (dry temperature is always lower than physical temperature, and computed the corresponding altitudes. As an example, a temperature difference of −0.05 K in the tropics was found at an altitude of about 14 km, while at higher northern latitudes in winter it was found at an altitude of about 9–10 km, in summer at about 11 km. Furthermore, regarding climate change, we expect an increase of absolute humidity in the atmosphere. This possible trend in water vapor could yield a wrongly interpreted dry temperature trend

  7. The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Soil Properties and Processes and Corresponding Influence on Food Security

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric C. Brevik

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available According to the IPCC, global temperatures are expected to increase between 1.1 and 6.4 °C during the 21st century and precipitation patterns will be altered. Soils are intricately linked to the atmospheric/climate system through the carbon, nitrogen, and hydrologic cycles. Because of this, altered climate will have an effect on soil processes and properties. Recent studies indicate at least some soils may become net sources of atmospheric C, lowering soil organic matter levels. Soil erosion by wind and water is also likely to increase. However, there are many things we need to know more about. How climate change will affect the N cycle and, in turn, how that will affect C storage in soils is a major research need, as is a better understanding of how erosion processes will be influenced by changes in climate. The response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO2 given limitations in nutrients like N and P, and how that will influence soil organic matter levels, is another critical research need. How soil organic matter levels react to changes in the C and N cycles will influence the ability of soils to support crop growth, which has significant ramifications for food security. Therefore, further study of soil-climate interactions in a changing world is critical to addressing future food security concerns.

  8. Molecular markers for resistance against infectious diseases of economic importance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prajapati, B. M.; Gupta, J. P.; Pandey, D. P.; Parmar, G. A.; Chaudhari, J. D.

    2017-01-01

    Huge livestock population of India is under threat by a large number of endemic infectious (bacterial, viral, and parasitic) diseases. These diseases are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality, particularly in exotic and crossbred cattle. Beside morbidity and mortality, economic losses by these diseases occur through reduced fertility, production losses, etc. Some of the major infectious diseases which have great economic impact on Indian dairy industries are tuberculosis (TB), Johne’s disease (JD), mastitis, tick and tick-borne diseases (TTBDs), foot and mouth disease, etc. The development of effective strategies for the assessment and control of infectious diseases requires a better understanding of pathogen biology, host immune response, and diseases pathogenesis as well as the identification of the associated biomarkers. Indigenous cattle (Bos indicus) are reported to be comparatively less affected than exotic and crossbred cattle. However, genetic basis of resistance in indigenous cattle is not well documented. The association studies of few of the genes associated with various diseases, namely, solute carrier family 11 member 1, Toll-like receptors 1, with TB; Caspase associated recruitment domain 15, SP110 with JD; CACNA2D1, CD14 with mastitis and interferon gamma, BoLA­-DRB3.2 alleles with TTBDs, etc., are presented. Breeding for genetic resistance is one of the promising ways to control the infectious diseases. High host resistance is the most important method for controlling such diseases, but till today no breed is total immune. Therefore, work may be undertaken under the hypothesis that the different susceptibility to these diseases are exhibited by indigenous and crossbred cattle is due to breed-specific differences in the dealing of infected cells with other immune cells, which ultimately influence the immune response responded against infections. Achieving maximum resistance to these diseases is the ultimate goal, is technically

  9. The Influence of Subcultures on Planned Change in a Community College

    Science.gov (United States)

    Locke, Mary G.; Guglielmino, Lucy

    2006-01-01

    This qualitative case study focusing on a collegewide change initiative was conducted to provide community college leaders with a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the role of subcultures in planned change. Research indicates that institutional culture is a primary factor in the success of change programs; however, little research…

  10. Does biodiversity protect humans against infectious disease?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Chelsea L; Lafferty, Kevin D; DeLeo, Giulio; Young, Hillary S; Hudson, Peter J; Kuris, Armand M

    2014-04-01

    Control of human infectious disease has been promoted as a valuable ecosystem service arising from the conservation of biodiversity. There are two commonly discussed mechanisms by which biodiversity loss could increase rates of infectious disease in a landscape. First, loss of competitors or predators could facilitate an increase in the abundance of competent reservoir hosts. Second, biodiversity loss could disproportionately affect non-competent, or less competent reservoir hosts, which would otherwise interfere with pathogen transmission to human populations by, for example, wasting the bites of infected vectors. A negative association between biodiversity and disease risk, sometimes called the "dilution effect hypothesis," has been supported for a few disease agents, suggests an exciting win-win outcome for the environment and society, and has become a pervasive topic in the disease ecology literature. Case studies have been assembled to argue that the dilution effect is general across disease agents. Less touted are examples in which elevated biodiversity does not affect or increases infectious disease risk for pathogens of public health concern. In order to assess the likely generality of the dilution effect, we review the association between biodiversity and public health across a broad variety of human disease agents. Overall, we hypothesize that conditions for the dilution effect are unlikely to be met for most important diseases of humans. Biodiversity probably has little net effect on most human infectious diseases but, when it does have an effect, observation and basic logic suggest that biodiversity will be more likely to increase than to decrease infectious disease risk.

  11. Protein misfolding cyclic amplification of infectious prions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Rodrigo; Duran-Aniotz, Claudia; Diaz-Espinoza, Rodrigo; Camacho, Manuel V; Soto, Claudio

    2012-06-28

    Prions are proteinaceous infectious agents responsible for the transmission of prion diseases. The lack of a procedure for cultivating prions in the laboratory has been a major limitation to the study of the unorthodox nature of this infectious agent and the molecular mechanism by which the normal prion protein (PrP(C)) is converted into the abnormal isoform (PrP(Sc)). Protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA), described in detail in this protocol, is a simple, fast and efficient methodology to mimic prion replication in the test tube. PMCA involves incubating materials containing minute amounts of infectious prions with an excess of PrP(C) and boosting the conversion by cycles of sonication to fragment the converting units, thereby leading to accelerated prion replication. PMCA is able to detect the equivalent of a single molecule of infectious PrP(Sc) and propagate prions that maintain high infectivity, strain properties and species specificity. A single PMCA assay takes little more than 3 d to replicate a large amount of prions, which could take years in an in vivo situation. Since its invention 10 years ago, PMCA has helped to answer fundamental questions about this intriguing infectious agent and has been broadly applied in research areas that include the food industry, blood bank safety and human and veterinary disease diagnosis.

  12. A comprehensive infectious disease management system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marcu, Alex; Farley, John D

    2009-01-01

    An efficient electronic management system is now an essential tool for the successful management and monitoring of those affected by communicable infectious diseases (Human Immunodeficiency Virus - HIV, hepatitis C - HEP C) during the course of the treatment. The current methods which depend heavily on manual collecting, compiling and disseminating treatment information are labor-intensive and time consuming. Clinics specialized in the treatment of infectious diseases use a mix of electronic systems that fail to interact with each other, result in data duplication, and do not support treatment of the patient as a whole. The purpose of the Infectious Disease Management System is to reduce the administrative overhead associated with data collection and analysis while providing correlation abilities and decision support in accordance with defined treatment guidelines. This Infectious Disease Management System was developed to: Ensure cost effectiveness by means of low software licensing costs, Introduce a centralized mechanism of collecting and monitoring all infectious disease management data, Automate electronic retrieval of laboratory findings, Introduce a decision support mechanism as per treatment guidelines, Seamlessly integrate of application modules, Provide comprehensive reporting capabilities, Maintain a high level of user friendliness.

  13. Global Dynamics of Infectious Disease with Arbitrary Distributed Infectious Period on Complex Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguang Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Most of the current epidemic models assume that the infectious period follows an exponential distribution. However, due to individual heterogeneity and epidemic diversity, these models fail to describe the distribution of infectious periods precisely. We establish a SIS epidemic model with multistaged progression of infectious periods on complex networks, which can be used to characterize arbitrary distributions of infectious periods of the individuals. By using mathematical analysis, the basic reproduction number R0 for the model is derived. We verify that the R0 depends on the average distributions of infection periods for different types of infective individuals, which extend the general theory obtained from the single infectious period epidemic models. It is proved that if R0<1, then the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable; otherwise the unique endemic equilibrium exists such that it is globally asymptotically attractive. Finally numerical simulations hold for the validity of our theoretical results is given.

  14. The Influence Of Leadership Role Competencies On Organisation Change Outcome In The Manufacturing Industry In South Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herman Smit

    2003-11-01

    Full Text Available This article focuses on the influence leadership role congruence has on organisation change within three South African organisations in the manufacturing industry. The research was done in two phases. Phase I investigated the utilisation of leaders in specific leadership change roles. Four leadership change roles (Initiator, Shaper, Monitor, and Assessor were identified, each for which a set of competencies (competence cluster was developed. A questionnaire (Leadership Role Competence Questionnaire measuring the perceived level of competence for each role was designed. Phase II investigated the influence of the congruence results on organisational change outcome. A questionnaire (Change Outcome Questionnaire measuring the soft dimensions of organisation change was developed. All three respondent organisations’ leaders involved with their organisations’ change initiatives were selected for Phase I. A random sample of 120 employees per organisation was used for Phase II. The main findings were that congruence existed for two roles (Initiator and Assessor. In addition to this it was found that role congruence for the Initiator and Assessor roles influenced change outcome positively, and that a lack of congruence for the Shaper and Monitor roles had a negative influence on change outcome. OpsommingHierdie artikel fokus op die invloed wat rolkongruensie het op organisasieverandering binne drie Suid Afrikaanse maatskappye in die vervaardigingsektor. Die navorsing is gedoen in twee fases. Fase I het die aanwending van leiers in spesifieke leierskapsveranderingsrolle ondersoek. Vier leierskapsveranderingsrolle (Inisieerder, Vormer, Moniteerder, en Assessor was geïdentifiseer waarvoor vir elk ’n stel vaardighede (vaardigheidsbondel ontwikkel is. ’n Vraelys (Leierskaps-Rol-Vaardigheid Vraelys wat die waargenome vlak van vaardigheid in elke rol meet, is ontwikkel. Fase II het die invloed wat die kongruensieresultate op die

  15. Influence of urban land cover changes and climate change for the exposure of European cities to flooding during high-intensity precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skougaard Kaspersen, P.; Høegh Ravn, N.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K.; Madsen, H.; Drews, M.

    2015-06-01

    The extent and location of impervious surfaces within urban areas due to past and present city development strongly affects the amount and velocity of run-off during high-intensity rainfall and consequently influences the exposure of cities towards flooding. The frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall are expected to increase in many places due to climate change and thus further exacerbate the risk of pluvial flooding. This paper presents a combined hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling and remote sensing approach suitable for examining the susceptibility of European cities to pluvial flooding owing to recent changes in urban land cover, under present and future climatic conditions. Estimated changes in impervious urban surfaces based on Landsat satellite imagery covering the period 1984-2014 are combined with regionally downscaled estimates of current and expected future rainfall extremes to enable 2-D overland flow simulations and flood hazard assessments. The methodology is evaluated for the Danish city of Odense. Results suggest that the past 30 years of urban development alone has increased the city's exposure to pluvial flooding by 6% for 10-year rainfall up to 26% for 100-year rainfall. Corresponding estimates for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate change scenarios (2071-2100) are in the order of 40 and 100%, indicating that land cover changes within cities can play a central role for the cities' exposure to flooding and conversely also for their adaptation to a changed climate.

  16. The influence of music on psychiatric patients' immediate attitude change toward therapists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kahans, D; Calford, M B

    1982-01-01

    This study was undertaken to establish that in an audience situation, music may facilitate an immediate attitude change toward a therapist by patients. To determine the characteristics of such a change, recorded (popular and classical) and live (cello) music was employed. A semantic differential was used to measure attitude change by psychiatric inpatients and control subjects (medical students and student nurses). Significant attitude change were found when the music presented was the preference of the therapist and when this preference was conveyed to the audience. Patient breakdown into diagnostic categories also showed that patients with affective or alcoholic disorders showed significantly larger attitude change than the controls. Results are discussed in terms of cognitive consistency theories of attitude change, concluding that maximal attitude change toward a therapist occurs under conditions in which the therapist presents new aspects of behavior (in terms of previous exposure) to the patients.

  17. Dynamic population flow based risk analysis of infectious disease propagation in a metropolis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Nan; Huang, Hong; Duarte, Marlyn; Zhang, Junfeng Jim

    2016-09-01

    Knowledge on the characteristics of infectious disease propagation in metropolises plays a critical role in guiding public health intervention strategies to reduce death tolls, disease incidence, and possible economic losses. Based on the SIR model, we established a comprehensive spatiotemporal risk assessment model to compute infectious disease propagation within an urban setting using Beijing, China as a case study. The model was developed for a dynamic population distribution using actual data on location, density of residences and offices, and means of public transportation (e.g., subways, buses and taxis). We evaluated four influencing factors including biological, behavioral, environmental parameters and infectious sources. The model output resulted in a set of maps showing how the four influencing factors affected the trend and characteristics of airborne infectious disease propagation in Beijing. We compared the scenarios for the long-term dynamic propagation of infectious disease without governmental interventions versus scenarios with government intervention and hospital coordinated emergency responses. Lastly, the sensitivity of the average number of people at different location in spreading infections is analyzed. Based on our results, we provide valuable recommendations to governmental agencies and the public in order to minimize the disease propagation.

  18. Influence of grazing and precipitation change on ecosystem carbon exchange along an elevation gradient in central Utah

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, R. A.

    2010-12-01

    Human activities have resulted in well-documented increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and mean annual temperature, with forecast future increases of between 1.1 and 6.4 oC. These increased temperatures will alter patterns of atmospheric circulation and influence hydrologic processes. For ecologists the challenge lies in the ability to understand how critical processes will be affected by two fundamental changes in precipitation—(1) decreases in the amount of summertime rain and (2) the size and frequency of individual rain events. In 2009 we began a rainfall manipulation study at elevations ranging from the valley floor to the crest of the Wasatch Plateau. In addition to manipulating summer rainfall, this experiment evaluates the influence of historical livestock grazing. We hypothesized that historical grazing would decrease the responsiveness to this system to changes in precipitation because grazing promotes drought-adapted species. This work has two specific aims that were addressed at the Great Basin Experimental Range in Ephraim, UT. The first aim was to determine how decreasing monsoon precipitation by 30-70% alters plant physiology, community interactions, and the biophysical environment in historically grazed and ungrazed plots. The second aim was to examine how changing the size and timing of precipitation influences plant physiology, community interactions, and the biophysical environment. After two years we observed substantial changes in soil moisture associated with our treatments. We also observed moisture-related changes in soil respiration and plant production with drought being much more influential than the timing of precipitation. Grazing decreases respiration rates and plant production independently from precipitation effects. These results indicate that there is a potential interaction between climate change and land use decisions.

  19. Detecting the influence of fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon aerosols on near surface temperature changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, G. S.; Christidis, N.; Stott, P. A.

    2011-01-01

    Past research has shown that the dominant influence on recent global climate changes is from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases with implications for future increases in global temperatures. One mitigation proposal is to reduce black carbon aerosol emissions. How much warming can be offset by controlling black carbon is unclear, especially as its influence on past climate has not been previously unambiguously detected. In this study observations of near-surface warming over the last century are compared with simulations using a climate model, HadGEM1. In the simulations black carbon, from fossil fuel and bio-fuel sources (fBC), produces a positive radiative forcing of about +0.25 Wm-2 over the 20th century, compared with +2.52 Wm-2 for well mixed greenhouse gases. A simulated warming of global mean near-surface temperatures over the twentieth century from fBC of 0.14 ± 0.1 K compares with 1.06 ± 0.07 K from greenhouse gases, -0.58 ± 0.10 K from anthropogenic aerosols, ozone and land use changes and 0.09 ± 0.09 K from natural influences. Using a detection and attribution methodology, the observed warming since 1900 has detectable influences from anthropogenic and natural factors. Fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon is found to have a detectable contribution to the warming over the last 50 yr of the 20th century, although the results are sensitive to the period being examined as fBC is not detected for the later fifty year period ending in 2006. The attributed warming of fBC was found to be consistent with the warming from fBC unscaled by the detection analysis. This study suggests that there is a possible significant influence from fBC on global temperatures, but its influence is small compared to that from greenhouse gas emissions.

  20. Biodiversity loss and infectious diseases: chapter 5

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lafferty, Kevin D.

    2014-01-01

    When conservation biologists think about infectious diseases, their thoughts are mostly negative. Infectious diseases have been associated with the extinction and endangerment of some species, though this is rare, and other factors like habitat loss and poorly regulated harvest still are the overwhelming drivers of endangerment. Parasites are pervasive and play important roles as natural enemies on par with top predators, from regulating population abundances to maintaining species diversity. Sometimes, parasites themselves can be endangered. However, it seems unlikely that humans will miss extinct parasites. Parasites are often sensitive to habitat loss and degradation, making them positive indicators of ecosystem “health”. Conservation biologists need to carefully consider infectious diseases when planning conservation actions. This can include minimizing the movement of domestic and invasive species, vaccination, and culling.

  1. Infectious Discitis and Spondylodiscitis in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Principi, Nicola; Esposito, Susanna

    2016-01-01

    In children, infectious discitis (D) and infectious spondylodiscitis (SD) are rare diseases that can cause significant clinical problems, including spinal deformities and segmental instabilities. Moreover, when the infection spreads into the spinal channel, D and SD can cause devastating neurologic complications. Early diagnosis and treatment may reduce these risks. The main aim of this paper is to discuss recent concepts regarding the epidemiology, microbiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of pediatric D and SD. It is highlighted that particular attention must be paid to the identification of the causative infectious agent and its sensitivity to antibiotics, remembering that traditional culture frequently leads to negative results and modern molecular methods can significantly increase the detection rate. Several different bacterial pathogens can cause D and SD, and, in some cases, particularly those due to Staphylococcus aureus, Kingella kingae, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Brucella spp., the appropriate choice of drug is critical to achieve cure. PMID:27070599

  2. Infectious Discitis and Spondylodiscitis in Children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Principi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available In children, infectious discitis (D and infectious spondylodiscitis (SD are rare diseases that can cause significant clinical problems, including spinal deformities and segmental instabilities. Moreover, when the infection spreads into the spinal channel, D and SD can cause devastating neurologic complications. Early diagnosis and treatment may reduce these risks. The main aim of this paper is to discuss recent concepts regarding the epidemiology, microbiology, clinical presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of pediatric D and SD. It is highlighted that particular attention must be paid to the identification of the causative infectious agent and its sensitivity to antibiotics, remembering that traditional culture frequently leads to negative results and modern molecular methods can significantly increase the detection rate. Several different bacterial pathogens can cause D and SD, and, in some cases, particularly those due to Staphylococcus aureus, Kingella kingae, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, Brucella spp., the appropriate choice of drug is critical to achieve cure.

  3. Inflammatory, vascular, and infectious myelopathies in children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verhey, Leonard H; Banwell, Brenda L

    2013-01-01

    Acute nontraumatic myelopathies of childhood include inflammatory, infectious, and vascular etiologies. Inflammatory immune-mediated disorders of the spinal cord can be categorized as idiopathic isolated transverse myelitis, neuromyelitis optica, and multiple sclerosis. In recent years, human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1, West Nile virus, enterovirus-71, and Lyme disease have been increasingly recognized as infectious etiologies of myelopathy, and poliomyelitis remains an important etiology in world regions where vaccination programs have not been universally available. Vascular etiologies include vasculopathies (systemic lupus erythematosus, small vessel primary angiitis of the central nervous system), arteriovenous malformations, and spinal cord infarction (fibrocartilaginous embolism, diffuse hypoxic ischemia-mediated infarction). Vascular myelopathies are less common than inflammatory and infectious myelopathies, but are more likely to lead to devastating clinical deficits. Current therapeutic strategies include acute anti-inflammatory treatment and rehabilitation. Stem cell transplantation, nerve graft implantation, and stimulation of endogenous repair mechanisms represent promising strategies for spinal cord repair.

  4. Modeling the infectiousness of Twitter hashtags

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaza, Jonathan; Blais, Brian

    2017-01-01

    This study applies dynamical and statistical modeling techniques to quantify the proliferation and popularity of trending hashtags on Twitter. Using time-series data reflecting actual tweets in New York City and San Francisco, we present estimates for the dynamics (i.e., rates of infection and recovery) of several hundred trending hashtags using an epidemic modeling framework coupled with Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This methodological strategy is an extension of techniques traditionally used to model the spread of infectious disease. Using SIR-type models, we demonstrate that most hashtags are marginally infectious, while very few emerge as "trending". In doing so we illustrate that hashtags can be grouped by infectiousness, possibly providing a method for quantifying the trendiness of a topic.

  5. Spatial dynamics of airborne infectious diseases

    CERN Document Server

    Robinson, M; Drossinos, Y

    2011-01-01

    Disease outbreaks, such as those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 and the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, have highlighted the potential for airborne transmission in indoor environments. Respirable pathogen-carrying droplets provide a vector for the spatial spread of infection with droplet transport determined by diffusive and convective processes. An epidemiological model describing the spatial dynamics of disease transmission is presented. The effects of an ambient airflow, as an infection control, are incorporated leading to a delay equation, with droplet density dependent on the infectious density at a previous time. It is found that small droplets ($\\sim 0.4\\ \\mu$m) generate a negligible infectious force due to the small viral load and the associated duration they require to transmit infection. In contrast, larger droplets ($\\sim 4\\ \\mu$m) can lead to an infectious wave propagating through a fully susceptible population or a secondary infection outbreak for a localised susceptible population...

  6. The influence of climate changes on carbon cycle in the russian forests. Data inventory and long-scale model prognoses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kokorin, A.O.; Nazarov, I.M.; Lelakin, A.L. [Inst. Global Climate and Ecology, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1995-12-31

    The growing up climate changes arise the question about reaction of forests. Forests cover 770 Mha in Russia and are giant carbon reservoir. Climate changes cause disbalance in carbon budget that give additional CO{sub 2} exchange between forests and the atmosphere. The aim of the work is estimation of these fluxes. This problem is directly connected with an GHG inventory, vulnerability and mitigation assessment, which are necessary for future Russian Reports to UN FCCC. The work includes the following steps: (1) Collection of literature data as well as processing of the experimental data on influence of climate changes on forests, (2) Calculation of carbon budget as base for calculations of CO{sub 2} fluxes, (3) Developing of new version of CCBF (Carbon and Climate in Boreal Forests) model, (4) Model estimations of current and future CO{sub 2} fluxes caused by climate changes, forest cuttings, fires and reforestation

  7. Parents' and older siblings' smoking during childhood: changing influences on smoking acquisition and escalation over the course of adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bricker, Jonathan B; Peterson, Arthur V; Andersen, M Robyn; Sarason, Irwin G; Rajan, K Bharat; Leroux, Brian G

    2007-09-01

    This study investigated prospectively the change in the influence of parents' and older siblings' smoking at the start of the childhood and adolescent smoking acquisition period (i.e., 3rd grade, or age 8) on the initiation and escalation of smoking over the course of adolescence. In a sample of 5,520 individuals in 3rd grade, we measured parents' and older siblings' smoking. Individuals' smoking data were provided at four grade intervals over the course of adolescence. The influence of parents' smoking, measured at 3rd grade, was stable and significant for the transition to trying smoking and increased over the course of adolescence for the transition from monthly to daily smoking (p = .001). In contrast, we found no evidence that influence of older siblings' smoking, measured at 3rd grade, changed (p>.05) across the grade intervals for any adolescent smoking transition. The results suggest that the influence of parents' smoking on smoking initiation is stable and enduring whereas it increases substantially for smoking escalation occurring over the course of adolescence.

  8. Laboratory simulation of temperature changes by insolation and fire and their influence on physical properties of travertines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuzana Kompaníková

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The influence of insolation and fire represents important factor for study of historical object destruction. The results have shown that temperature changes by insolation (60°C and fire (200, 400, 600, and 800°C significantly contributed to the change of physical properties of Slovak travertine from Spišské Podhradie and Ludrová. Research was oriented not only on a visual change of rocks (colour change, brightness and surface roughness, but also on the quantitative and qualitative analyses of mineral composition, connected with structural changes as well as study of selected physical properties. The micropetrographic study indicated that increasing of temperature was followed by expand of fractures as reflected even change of true and specific bulk density. Significant increase of microcracks was determined at 600°C by optical microscopy. The macroscopic observation of microcracks was visible at 800°C subsequently followed by destruction of samples. By spectrophotometry was visible colour change by increasing of temperature. The brightness of travertine samples was decreasing till 600°C, but after 600°C it became markedly increasing. With increasing of temperature travertine surface samples had also change from a few hundred nanometres to several microns. The investigation of thermal decay by insolation and fire may lead to an improved assessment of natural building stones that have been used as building and decorative stone on ancient monument.

  9. Non-infectious endophthalmitis after vitrectomy

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    HUANG Yao; CHEUNG Ning; TIAN Bei; WEI Wen-bin

    2013-01-01

    Background Non-infectious endophthalmitis was reported to occur after cataract surgery or intravitreal injections.This study reported a series of patients having non-infectious endophthalmitis after pars plana vitrectomy in the same two operation rooms during the same period to estimate the risk factors for non-infectious endophthalmitis after vitrectomy.Methods Medical records of patients who presented with severe non-infectious endophthalmitis following vitrectomy between May 13 and June 8,2011,were reviewed.The presenting symptoms and signs were collected,including visual acuity,intraocular pressure,cornea and anterior chamber activity.The treatments and results of microbiology examination were also recorded and analyzed.Results Ten patients were identified with severe non-infectious endophthalmitis,presenting 1 day after pars plana vitrectomy.Three eyes (30%) had previous intraocular surgeries,four (40%) had proliferative diabetic retinopathy,and one (10%) got pars plana vitrectomy combinded with phacoemulsification and intraocular lens implantation.All the patients were initially treated with topical and/or oral steroids.Only two patients had intravenous antibiotics because of the atypical presentation.One eye had paracentesis because of high intraocular pressure and the aqueous sample was sent for microbiological examination.The culture of the aqueous,air in the operation room,the swab from hand of surgeons,infusion fluid,and vitrectomy effluent were all negative for bacteria and fungi.The inflammation regressed rapidly after the initial treatment.Conclusions Intraocular surgery history,poor general health status,longer operation time,and more surgical procedures are the risk factors for non-infectious endophthalmitis after vitrectomy.It responds well to steroids.

  10. Influence of higher sodium substitutions on magnetic entropy change and transition temperature in lanthanum manganites

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    N Sethulakshmi; I A Al Omari; M R Anantharaman

    2015-10-01

    Present investigation focuses on the variation of magnetic entropy change for higher sodium substitution above 50% in lanthanum manganites. Magnetic measurements indicated that all samples exhibit a ferromagnetic ordering near room temperature. Magnetic isotherms for different temperatures above and below 300 K were recorded and the magnetic entropy change for compositions belonging to La1−Na MnO3 for = 0.6 to 0.9 in steps of 0.1 was estimated for different applied magnetic fields. It has been found that the compositions having a Na substitution of 0.6 are having the largest entropy change, and the entropy change increases with applied magnetic field for all compositions. The change in entropy also decreases with increase in substitution of sodium. A notable change in transition temperature with Na concentration is also found in this sample series.

  11. EXAMINATION OF FACTORS INFLUENCING THE VARIABILITY OF YEAST AMOUNT IN THE CONTEXT OF PH CHANGES IN BOTTLED WINES

    OpenAIRE

    Ladislav Mura; Ľubomír Lopašovský; Dagmar Kozelová; Lucia Zeleňáková; Eva Matejková

    2011-01-01

    Aim of this paper was to examine of factors (manufacturer, temperature and storage time) influencing the variability of yeast amount and pH changes in bottled white wines. It was confirmed that wine coming from the business network was better quality in contract to domestic wine. We have assumed that domestic wine was contaminated during the manufacturing process, while the most probable reason was imperfect filtration of wine, or its contamination during the bottling. The results showed that...

  12. The influence of refractive index change and initial bending of cantilevers on the optical lever readout method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dohn, Søren; Greve, Anders; Svendsen, Winnie Edith;

    2010-01-01

    It has been speculated that the initial bending of cantilevers has a major influence on the detector signal in a cantilever-based sensor using the optical lever readout method. We have investigated theoretically as well as experimentally the changes induced in the detector signal when the optical...... experimentally using an environmental chamber and varying the pressure. We sketch routes to circumvent the problem and formulas suitable for data treatment are given....

  13. How changes in nutrition have influenced the development of allergic diseases in childhood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peroni Diego G

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The increasing prevalence of allergic diseases in childhood in the last decades could be linked to concomitant dietary changes, especially with the modified and lower consumption of fruit, vegetables and minerals. The consumption of these foods by pregnant women and children in the first years of life seems to be associated with a reduced risk of asthma and related symptoms. Foods that can prevent the development of wheezing through their antioxidant effects contain vitamin C and selenium; blood levels of these elements correlate negatively with the risk of wheezing. Intake of vitamin E during pregnancy also appears to be correlated with a reduced risk of wheezing for the unborn child. Similarly, low intake of zinc and carotenoids by pregnant women is associated with an increased risk of wheezing and asthma in childhood. Fiber also has anti-inflammatory properties and protective effects against allergic diseases such as atopic dermatitis and asthma. The consumption of fat influences the development of the airways. Populations in Western countries have increased their consumption of n-6 PUFAs and, in parallel, reduced n-3 PUFAs. This has led to decreased production of PGE2, which is believed to have a protective effect against inflammation of the airways. Conflicting hypotheses also concern vitamin D; both an excess and a deficiency of vitamin D, in fact, have been associated with an increased risk of asthma. Further studies on the role of these substances are necessary before any conclusions can be drawn on a clinical level. Astratto La crescente prevalenza negli ultimi decenni delle malattie allergiche in età pediatrica potrebbe essere legata a concomitanti cambiamenti nella dieta, in particolare alla minore e modificata introduzione di frutta, verdura e minerali. Il consumo di questi alimenti da parte delle donne in gravidanza e dei bambini nei primi anni di vita sembra essere associato ad un ridotto rischio di asma e di sintomi

  14. Projection of Climate Change Influences on U.S. West Nile Virus Vectors

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Heidi E.; Young, Alex; Lega, Joceline; Theodore G Andreadis; Schurich, Jessica; Comrie, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. We describe a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vector-borne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species specific temperature-dependent development...

  15. The influence of emission changes on ozone concentrations and nitrogen deposition into the southern North Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elke M.I. Meyer

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The impact of changes in amount of emission for NOx (Nitrogen monoxide NO + Nitrogen dioxide NO2 and NMVOC (Non Methane Volatile Organic Compounds on concentrations of ozone (O3, NOx, nitric acid (HNO3 and on nitrogen deposition in the area of the southern North Sea are investigated. One reference case for the period 16 June till 20 June, 1998 and six emission scenarios are calculated. Spatial and temporal emission patterns are kept and overall emission factors are used that correspond to years 1998 (reference, 1970 and 2010. Some more artificial emission scenarios are constructed to investigate the effect of a changed ratio of NOx to NMVOC emissions. The meteorology is unchanged for all scenarios. The studies are performed with the meteorology/chemistry model M-SYS (METRAS/MECTM including a simple aerosol chemistry and using a horizontal resolution of 8 km. Changes in emissions of NMVOC and NOx cause nonlinear changes in O3, NOx and HNO3 concentrations. The concentration changes depend on emission changes and on changes in the ratio of NMVOC to NOx emissions. The whole area, over land and water, turns out to be in the NMVOC limited regime. Ozone scenario concentrations linearly depend on the ratio of NMVOC to NOx emissions. NOx concentrations linearly depend on changes in the total emissions of NOx and NMVOC. They are inversely related to changes in the ratio of NMVOC to NOx emissions. HNO3 concentrations mainly depend on the total emission changes with NOx emission changes being of doubled relevance compared to NMVOC emission changes. The same relation is found for nitrogen deposition. Compared to mean ozone concentrations from the reference case, higher (lower NOx emissions reduce (increase ozone concentrations, while HNO3 concentrations are increased (reduced. In contrast, reduced (increased NMVOC emissions reduce (increase both, ozone and HNO3 concentrations and, in addition, the nitrogen deposition.

  16. Climate Change and Its Influence on Crop Farming in Xintai City

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    [Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of climate and its influence on the crop farming in Xintai City.[Method] By using the yearly and monthly average temperature,rainfall,first and last frost dates,frost-free period,sunshine hours,etc.in Xintai City during 1957-2009,the variation characteristics of climate and its influence on the crop farming in Xintai City in recent 53 years were analyzed.[Result] The temperature rose in the fluctuation in Xintai City.The warm winter pheno...

  17. Infectious triggers of pediatric asthma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gern, James E; Lemanske, Robert F

    2003-06-01

    Respiratory infections can cause wheezing illnesses in children of all ages and also can influence the causation and disease activity of asthma. For years it has been recognized that respiratory syncytial virus infections often produce the first episode of wheezing in children who go on to develop chronic asthma. More recently, it has been proposed that repeated infections with other common childhood viral pathogens might help the immune system develop in such a way as to prevent the onset of allergic diseases and possibly asthma. In addition to the effects of viral infections, infections with certain intracellular pathogens, such as chlamydia and mycoplasma, may cause acute and chronic wheezing in some individuals, whereas common cold and acute sinus infections can trigger acute symptoms of asthma. In this article, the epidemiologic, mechanistic, and treatment implications of the association between respiratory infections and asthma are discussed.

  18. Non-infectious inflammatory genital lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreassi, Lucio; Bilenchi, Roberta

    2014-01-01

    The genitalia may be the site of non-infectious inflammatory lesions that are generally manifested as balanoposthitis and vulvovaginitis. In men, these forms constitute 50% of all balanoposthitis forms, and in women, vulvovaginitis frequency is even higher. They consist of genital locations of general skin diseases, such as psoriasis, lichen planus, lichen sclerosus, and other clinical entities with their own physiognomy, such as Zoon's balanitis-vulvitis. Diagnosis of genital non-infectious inflammatory lesions is usually made on clinical criteria. A biopsy is only necessary for the identification of clinical conditions that may simulate inflammatory form but are actually premalignant processes.

  19. [Corticosteroids in the treatment of infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kronig, I; Schibler, M; Rougemont, M; Emonet, S

    2013-04-24

    The addition of a corticosteroid has become a common practice for the treatment of some infectious diseases, such as meningitis, septic shock, moderate to severe Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia. The belief that steroids may have a beneficial effect in the early stage of pro-inflammatory infections explains the renewed interest for these treatments. This review of recent literature helps determine the use of steroids in the treatment of infectious diseases as formal guidance, questionable or rather contraindicated. When there is a clear scientific indication for the use of corticosteroids regardless of the current infection, the latter is never a formal contraindication.

  20. A reverse genetics approach to study feline infectious peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekes, Gergely; Spies, Danica; Bank-Wolf, Barbara; Thiel, Volker; Thiel, Heinz-Jürgen

    2012-06-01

    Feline infectious peritonitis (FIP) is a lethal immunopathological disease caused by feline coronaviruses (FCoVs). Here, we describe a reverse genetics approach to study FIP by assessing the pathogenicity of recombinant type I and type II and chimeric type I/type II FCoVs. All recombinant FCoVs established productive infection in cats, and recombinant type II FCoV (strain 79-1146) induced FIP. Virus sequence analyses from FIP-diseased cats revealed that the 3c gene stop codon of strain 79-1146 has changed to restore a full-length open reading frame (ORF).

  1. [Diagnostic approach to infectious endocarditis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parize, Perrine; Mainardi, Jean-Luc

    2012-04-01

    Major advances in imaging and microbiological procedures have changed the diagnostic approach of infective endocarditis. New imaging tools have improved the search of local complications, systemic embolism and diagnosis of infection of cardiac devices. Moreover, microbiological diagnosis has been transformed by molecular techniques as long as these procedures have highlighted microorganisms thus far neglected by classical techniques. Despite these advances, endocarditis remained a clinical diagnosis which still depends on a high index of clinical suspicion.

  2. Changes in the Factors Influencing Public Acceptance of Nuclear Power Generation in Japan Since the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsujikawa, Norifumi; Tsuchida, Shoji; Shiotani, Takamasa

    2016-01-01

    Public support for nuclear power generation has decreased in Japan since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in March 2011. This study examines how the factors influencing public acceptance of nuclear power changed after this event. The influence factors examined are perceived benefit, perceived risk, trust in the managing bodies, and pro-environmental orientation (i.e., new ecological paradigm). This study is based on cross-sectional data collected from two online nationwide surveys: one conducted in November 2009, before the nuclear accident, and the other in October 2011, after the accident. This study's target respondents were residents of Aomori, Miyagi, and Fukushima prefectures in the Tohoku region of Japan, as these areas were the epicenters of the Great East Japan Earthquake and the locations of nuclear power stations. After the accident, trust in the managing bodies was found to have a stronger influence on perceived risk, and pro-environmental orientation was found to have a stronger influence on trust in the managing bodies; however, perceived benefit had a weaker positive influence on public acceptance. We also discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these findings.

  3. Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuchs, Richard; Schulp, Catharina J E; Hengeveld, Geerten M; Verburg, Peter H; Clevers, Jan G P W; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Herold, Martin

    2016-07-01

    Legacy effects of land cover/use on carbon fluxes require considering both present and past land cover/use change dynamics. To assess past land use dynamics, model-based reconstructions of historic land cover/use are needed. Most historic reconstructions consider only the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). Studies about the impact of gross and net land change accounting methods on the carbon balance are still lacking. In this study, we assessed historic changes in carbon in soils for five land cover/use types and of carbon in above-ground biomass of forests. The assessment focused on Europe for the period 1950 to 2010 with decadal time steps at 1-km spatial resolution using a bookkeeping approach. To assess the implications of gross land change data, we also used net land changes for comparison. Main contributors to carbon sequestration between 1950 and 2010 were afforestation and cropland abandonment leading to 14.6 PgC sequestered carbon (of which 7.6 PgC was in forest biomass). Sequestration was highest for old-growth forest areas. A sequestration dip was reached during the 1970s due to changes in forest management practices. Main contributors to carbon emissions were deforestation (1.7 PgC) and stable cropland areas on peaty soils (0.8 PgC). In total, net fluxes summed up to 203 TgC yr(-1) (98 TgC yr(-1) in forest biomass and 105 TgC yr(-1) in soils). For areas that were subject to land changes in both reconstructions (35% of total area), the differences in carbon fluxes were about 68%. Overall for Europe the difference between accounting for either gross or net land changes led to 7% difference (up to 11% per decade) in carbon fluxes with systematically higher fluxes for gross land change data.

  4. Conceptual Model for Automatic Early Warning Information System of Infectious Diseases Based on Internet Reporting Surveillance System

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIA-QI MA; LI-PING WANG; XUAO-PENG QI; XIAO-MING SHI; GONG-HUAN YANG

    2007-01-01

    Objective To establish a conceptual model of automatic early warning of infectious diseases based on internet reporting surveillance system,with a view to realizing an automated warning system on a daily basis and timely identifying potential outbreaks of infectious diseases. Methods The statistic conceptual model was established using historic surveillance data with movable percentile method.Results Based on the infectious disease surveillance information platform,the conceptualmodelfor early warning was established.The parameter,threshold,and revised sensitivity and specificity of early warning value were changed to realize dynamic alert of infectious diseases on a daily basis.Conclusion The instructive conceptual model of dynamic alert can be used as a validating tool in institutions of infectious disease surveillance in different districts.

  5. Changing Times in England: The Influence on Geography Teachers' Professional Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Clare

    2012-01-01

    School geography in England has been characterised as a pendulum swinging between policies that emphasise curriculum and pedagogy alternately. In this paper, I illustrate the influence of these shifts on geography teacher's professional practice, by drawing on three "moments" from my experience as a student, teacher and teacher educator.…

  6. Changing Times in England: The Influence on Geography Teachers' Professional Practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Clare

    2012-01-01

    School geography in England has been characterised as a pendulum swinging between policies that emphasise curriculum and pedagogy alternately. In this paper, I illustrate the influence of these shifts on geography teacher's professional practice, by drawing on three "moments" from my experience as a student, teacher and teacher educator. Barnett's…

  7. Changing the conversation: the influence of emotions on conversational valence and alcohol consumption

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, H.; van den Putte, B.; de Bruijn, G.J.

    2014-01-01

    Health campaign effects may be improved by taking interpersonal communication processes into account. The current study, which employed an experimental, pretest-posttest, randomized exposure design (N = 208), investigated whether the emotions induced by anti-alcohol messages influence conversational

  8. Nitrogen forms influence microcystin concentration and composition via changes in cyanobacterial community structure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Eve Monchamp

    Full Text Available The eutrophication of freshwaters is a global health concern as lakes with excess nutrients are often subject to toxic cyanobacterial blooms. Although phosphorus is considered the main element regulating cyanobacterial biomass, nitrogen (N concentration and more specifically the availability of different N forms may influence the overall toxicity of blooms. In this study of three eutrophic lakes prone to cyanobacterial blooms, we examined the effects of nitrogen species and concentrations and other environmental factors in influencing cyanobacterial community structure, microcystin (MC concentrations and MC congener composition. The identification of specific MC congeners was of particular interest as they vary widely in toxicity. Different nitrogen forms appeared to influence cyanobacterial community structure leading to corresponding effects on MC concentrations and composition. Total MC concentrations across the lakes were largely explained by a combination of abiotic factors: dissolved organic nitrogen, water temperature and ammonium, but Microcystis spp. biomass was overall the best predictor of MC concentrations. Environmental factors did not appear to affect MC congener composition directly but there were significant associations between specific MC congeners and particular species. Based on redundancy analyses (RDA, the relative biomass of Microcystis aeruginosa was associated with MC-RR, M. wesenbergii with MC-LA and Aphanizomenon flos-aquae with MC-YR. The latter two species are not generally considered capable of MC production. Total nitrogen, water temperature, ammonium and dissolved organic nitrogen influenced the cyanobacterial community structure, which in turn resulted in differences in the dominant MC congener and the overall toxicity.

  9. The influence of organizational culture on organizational preferences towards the choice of organizational change strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janićijević Nebojša

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizational culture, through its assumptions, values, norms and symbols, determines the way in which the members of an organization perceive and interpret the reality within and around their organization, as well as the way they behave in that reality. For this reason we may assume that organizational culture has an impact on the way in which an organization changes, and that matching of organizational culture and change strategy will improve the efficiency of the change process. In this paper specific hypotheses about the causal relationship between certain types of organizational culture and certain change strategies are formulated. Types of organizational culture are differentiated according to Handy’s and Trompenaars’ classifications. Organizational change strategies have been differentiated according to previous work of Chin & Benne but one more strategy has been added. Classifications of both the organizational cultures and of the organizational change strategies are based on the same criteria of differentiation: distribution of power in an organization and orientation toward relationships or tasks. For this reason it is possible to formulate hypotheses about the causal relationship between certain types of organizational cultures and certain types of organizational change strategies. Thus, eight hypotheses are formulated in this paper, relating particular change strategies with particular types of organizational culture.

  10. Genetically Influenced Change in Sensation Seeking Drives the Rise of Delinquent Behavior during Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harden, K. Paige; Quinn, Patrick D.; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.

    2012-01-01

    Sensation seeking is associated with an increased propensity for delinquency, and emerging research on personality change suggests that mean levels of sensation seeking increase substantially from childhood to adolescence. The current study tested whether individual differences in the rate of change of sensation seeking predicted within-person…

  11. Pathogenic marine microbes influence the effects of climate change on a commercially important tropical bivalve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lucy M; Alsterberg, Christian; Turner, Andrew D; Girisha, S K; Rai, Ashwin; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Venugopal, M N; Karunasagar, Indrani; Godhe, Anna

    2016-01-01

    There is growing evidence that climate change will increase the prevalence of toxic algae and harmful bacteria, which can accumulate in marine bivalves. However, we know little about any possible interactions between exposure to these microorganisms and the effects of climate change on bivalve health, or about how this may affect the bivalve toxin-pathogen load. In mesocosm experiments, mussels, Perna viridis, were subjected to simulated climate change (warming and/or hyposalinity) and exposed to harmful bacteria and/or toxin-producing dinoflagellates. We found significant interactions between climate change and these microbes on metabolic and/or immunobiological function and toxin-pathogen load in mussels. Surprisingly, however, these effects were virtually eliminated when mussels were exposed to both harmful microorganisms simultaneously. This study is the first to examine the effects of climate change on determining mussel toxin-pathogen load in an ecologically relevant, multi-trophic context. The results may have considerable implications for seafood safety.

  12. The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younger, Jane L; Emmerson, Louise M; Miller, Karen J

    2016-02-01

    The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here, we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species' responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds

  13. Influence of land cover changes on the physical and chemical properties of alpine meadow soil

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    Taking the alpine cold meadow grassland in the southeastern part of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau as an example, this research deals with the characteristics of alpine meadow soil property changes, including soil nutrients, soil physical properties and soil moisture content under different land coverage conditions. With the degradation of grassland vegetation and the decline of vegetation coverage, soil compactness reduces, gravel content increases and bulk density increases. The originally dense root-system layer is gradually denuded, making the soil coarse and gravel. The change of the organic matter contents with the vegetation coverage change in the surface soil layer (0-20 cm) has shown an obvious cubic polynomial curve process. The organic matter contents increase rapidly when land coverage is above 60%, contrarily decreases on a large scale when land coverage is below 30%. Between 30%-60% of land coverage the organic matter contents remain stable. The total N and organic matter contents in soil have shown quite similar change regularity. Following this the mathematic equations are derived to describe such change processes. Moisture content in soil changes sharply with the vegetation coverage change. Soil moisture content change with the vegetation coverage change has shown a quadratic parabola process. Results have shown that organic matter content and the total N content of the alpine meadow soil decrease by 14890 kg/hm2 and 5505 kg/hm2 respectively as the vegetation coverage reduces from 90% to less than 30%. The heavy changes of soil physical and chemical properties with grassland degradation have made the recovery of alpine meadow ecological system impossible. The protection of alpine meadow vegetation is of vital importance to the maintenance of the regional soil environment and the regional ecological system.

  14. Death of an Arctic Mixed Phase Cloud: How Changes in the Arctic Environment Influence Cloud Properties and Cloud Radiative Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roesler, E. L.; Posselt, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    Arctic mixed phase stratocumulus clouds exert an important influence on the radiative budget over the Arctic ocean and sea ice. Field programs and numerical experiments have shown the properties of these clouds to be sensitive to changes in the surface properties, thermodynamic environment, and aerosols. While it is clear that Arctic mixed-phase clouds respond to changes in the Arctic environment, uncertainty remains as to how climate warming will affect the cloud micro- and macrophysical properties. This is in no small part due to the fact that there are nonlinear interactions between changes in atmospheric and surface properties and changes in cloud characteristics. In this study, large-eddy simulations are performed of an arctic mixed phase cloud observed during the Indirect and Semi-Direct Aerosol Campaign. A parameter-space-filling uncertainty quantification technique is used to rigorously explore how simulated arctic mixed phase clouds respond to changes in the properties of the environment. Specifically, the cloud ice and aerosol concentration, surface sensible and latent heat fluxes, and large scale temperature, water vapor, and vertical motion are systematically changed, and the properties of the resulting clouds are examined. It is found that Arctic mixed phase clouds exhibit four characteristic behaviors: stability, growth, decay, and dissipation. Sets of environmental and surface properties that lead to the emergence of each type of behavior are presented, and the implications for the response of Arctic clouds to changes in climate are explored.

  15. Genetic variation underlying resistance to infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus in a steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brieuc, Marine S O; Purcell, Maureen K; Palmer, Alexander D; Naish, Kerry A

    2015-11-17

    Understanding the mechanisms of host resistance to pathogens will allow insights into the response of wild populations to the emergence of new pathogens. Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is endemic to the Pacific Northwest and infectious to Pacific salmon and trout (Oncorhynchus spp.). Emergence of the M genogroup of IHNV in steelhead trout O. mykiss in the coastal streams of Washington State, between 2007 and 2011, was geographically heterogeneous. Differences in host resistance due to genetic change were hypothesized to be a factor influencing the IHNV emergence patterns. For example, juvenile steelhead trout losses at the Quinault National Fish Hatchery (QNFH) were much lower than those at a nearby facility that cultures a stock originally derived from the same source population. Using a classical quantitative genetic approach, we determined the potential for the QNFH steelhead trout population to respond to selection caused by the pathogen, by estimating the heritability for 2 traits indicative of IHNV resistance, mortality (h² = 0.377 (0.226 - 0.550)) and days to death (h² = 0.093 (0.018 - 0.203)). These results confirm that there is a genetic basis for resistance and that this population has the potential to adapt to IHNV. Additionally, genetic correlation between days to death and fish length suggests a correlated response in these traits to selection. Reduction of genetic variation, as well as the presence or absence of resistant alleles, could affect the ability of populations to adapt to the pathogen. Identification of the genetic basis for IHNV resistance could allow the assessment of the susceptibility of other steelhead populations.

  16. Genetic variation underlying resistance to infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus in a steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brieuc, Marine S. O.; Purcell, Maureen K.; Palmer, Alexander D.; Naish, Kerry A.

    2015-01-01

    Understanding the mechanisms of host resistance to pathogens will allow insights into the response of wild populations to the emergence of new pathogens. Infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV) is endemic to the Pacific Northwest and infectious to Pacific salmon and trout (Oncorhynchus spp.). Emergence of the M genogroup of IHNV in steelhead trout O. mykiss in the coastal streams of Washington State, between 2007 and 2011, was geographically heterogeneous. Differences in host resistance due to genetic change were hypothesized to be a factor influencing the IHNV emergence patterns. For example, juvenile steelhead trout losses at the Quinault National Fish Hatchery (QNFH) were much lower than those at a nearby facility that cultures a stock originally derived from the same source population. Using a classical quantitative genetic approach, we determined the potential for the QNFH steelhead trout population to respond to selection caused by the pathogen, by estimating the heritability for 2 traits indicative of IHNV resistance, mortality (h2 = 0.377 (0.226 - 0.550)) and days to death (h2 = 0.093 (0.018 - 0.203)). These results confirm that there is a genetic basis for resistance and that this population has the potential to adapt to IHNV. Additionally, genetic correlation between days to death and fish length suggests a correlated response in these traits to selection. Reduction of genetic variation, as well as the presence or absence of resistant alleles, could affect the ability of populations to adapt to the pathogen. Identification of the genetic basis for IHNV resistance could allow the assessment of the susceptibility of other steelhead populations.

  17. Influence of myocardial infarction on changes in the expression of angiotensin type 1 receptor in the rat prostate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamila Domińska

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Angiotensin II (AngII is the biologically active peptide of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS. Tissue- based, local RAS has been identified in the prostate, testis, epididymis and coagulating glands. Experimental and clinical studies have consistently shown that myocardial infarction (MI is associated with activation of the systemic RAS with increased concentration of angiotensin peptides in the blood and changes in expression of angiotensin receptors (AT. Changes in angiotensin receptors in the renal and cardiovascular system after MI are well recognized, but the effects of MI influence on changes in other tissue like the prostate gland are unknown. In the present study, we investigated the effect of myocardial infarction on angiotensin receptor protein and mRNA expression in the rat prostate gland. MI model was established in Wistar rats by ligating the left coronary artery (modified Selye method. The levels of AT1a-b and AT2 receptor mRNAs and proteins were measured in the rat prostate. Our study demonstrates tissue-specific changes in AT1a-b and AT2 receptor expression after myocardial infarction. The results show that MI has a strong influence on the expression of angiotensin receptor type AT1 in the prostate at the protein and mRNA level. (Folia Histochemica et Cytobiologica 2011, Vol. 49, No. 3, 497–503

  18. Influence of temperature, precipitation, and cultivar characteristics on changes in the spectrum of pathogenic fungi in winter wheat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hýsek, Josef; Vavera, Radek; Růžek, Pavel

    2016-12-01

    In view of the threat posed by climate change, we studied the influence of temperature, precipitation, cultivar characteristics, and technical management measures on the occurrence of phytopathogenic fungi in wheat during 2009-2013. This work involved experiments at two sites differing in average temperatures and precipitation. Temperature and precipitation appear to influence differences in the spectrum of phytopathogenic fungi at the individual sites. In 2009 (the warmest year), Alternaria triticina was dominant. In 2010 (having the smallest deviations from the average for individual years), Septoria tritici dominated. In 2011, Puccinia triticina was most prominent, while in 2012, the genus Drechslera (Pyrenophora) and in 2013, S. tritici and Drechslera tritici-repentis (DTR) dominated. Temperature and precipitation levels in the individual spring months (warmer March to May) played a large role, especially for the leaf rust P. triticina in 2011. A change of only 1 °C with different precipitation during a year played a significant role in changing wheat's fungal spectrum. Cluster analysis showed the differences between single pathogenic fungi on wheat in a single year due to temperature and precipitation. Alternaria abundance was strongly influenced by year (p < 0.001) while locality was significant only in certain years (2012, 2013; p = 0.004 and 0.015, respectively). The same factors were revealed to be significant in the case of Puccinia, but locality played a role (p < 0.001) in different years (2011, 2013). The abundance of S. tritici and Pyrenophora tritici-repentis (Drechslera tritici-repentis) was influenced only by year (p < 0.001).

  19. Factors influencing soft tissue profile changes following orthodontic treatment in patients with Class II Division 1 malocclusion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suhatcha Maetevorakul

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Several studies have shown soft tissue profile changes after orthodontic treatment in Class II Division 1 patients. However, a few studies have described factors influencing the soft tissue changes. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors influencing the soft tissue profile changes following orthodontic treatment in Class II Division 1 patients. Methods The subjects comprised 104 Thai patients age 8–16 years who presented Class II Division 1 malocclusions and were treated with different orthodontic modalities comprising cervical headgear, Class II traction and extraction of the four first premolars. The profile changes were evaluated from the lateral cephalograms before and after treatment by means of the X-Y coordinate system. Significant soft tissue profile changes were evaluated by paired t test at a 0.05 significance level. The correlations among significant soft tissue changes and independent variables comprising treatment modality, age, sex, pretreatment skeletal, dental and soft tissue morphology were evaluated by stepwise multiple regression analysis at a 0.05 significance level. Results The multiple regression analysis indicated that different treatment modalities, age, sex, pretreatment skeletal, dental and soft tissue morphology were related to the profile changes. The predictive power of these variables on the soft tissue profile changes ranged from 9.9 to 40.3 %. Conclusions Prediction of the soft tissue profile changes following treatment of Class II Division 1 malocclusion from initial patient morphology, age, sex and types of treatment was complicated and required several variables to explain their variations. Upper lip change in horizontal direction could be found only at the stomion superius and was less predictable than those of the lower lip. Variations in upper lip retraction at the stomion superius were explained by types of treatment (R 2 = 0.099, whereas protrusion of the lower

  20. Transformational Leadership and Change: How Leaders Influence Their Followers' Motivation Through Organizational Justice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deschamps, Carl; Rinfret, Natalie; Lagacé, Marie Claude; Privé, Catherine

    2016-01-01

    In the past decade, the reform of Québec's healthcare establishments has resulted in a reduction in the number of institutions through mergers and closures. In this report, we investigate the consequences of reform by looking at managers' motivations and related mitigating factors. We examine the influence that transformational leaders have on their employees' motivation through organizational justice. Using a survey of 253 healthcare managers, we describe how the positive impact of transformational leadership on motivation is fully mediated via different aspects of organizational justice. The results indicate that while transformational leaders influence each type of organizational justice, followers' motivation is affected primarily by procedural and interpersonal justice and little by distributive justice.

  1. Refinement of the tripartite influence model for men: dual body image pathways to body change behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tylka, Tracy L

    2011-06-01

    Although muscularity and body fat concerns are central to conceptualizing men's body image, they have not been examined together within existing structural models. This study refined the tripartite influence model (Thompson, Heinberg, Altabe, & Tantleff-Dunn, 1999) by including dual body image pathways (muscularity and body fat dissatisfaction) to engagement in muscular enhancement and disordered eating behaviors, respectively, and added dating partners as a source of social influence. Latent variable structural equation modeling analyses supported this quadripartite model in 473 undergraduate men. Nonsignificant paths were trimmed and two unanticipated paths were added. Muscularity dissatisfaction and body fat dissatisfaction represented dual body image pathways to men's engagement in muscularity enhancement behaviors and disordered eating behaviors, respectively. Pressures to be mesomorphic from friends, family, media, and dating partners made unique contributions to the model. Internalization of the mesomorphic ideal, muscularity dissatisfaction, and body fat dissatisfaction played key meditational roles within the model.

  2. Analysis to significant climate change in aerosol influence domain of Beijing and its peripheral areas by EOF mode

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHI; Xiaohui; XU; Xiangde; ZHANG; Shengjun; DING; Guoan

    2005-01-01

    Using the total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol optical depth (AOD)data and the sunshine duration, fog days, Iow cloud cover (LCC), etc. meteorological data in 1979-2000 in North China, as well as empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode statistical analyses method, the winter aerosol distributive character of Beijing and peripheral city agglomeration and its influence effect on regional climate are investigated in this paper, especially the relation between aerosol influence effect and distinct change regions of eigenvectors of EOF mode. It is found from analyzing the regional distribution of the long-term averaged winter TOMS AOD that there is a large-scale relatively stable high value zone of aerosol concentration in the valley of the Beijing and peripheral U-shape megarelief. A high correlation area of AOD between Beijing and its southern peripheral exists in winter, and in this significant region of aerosol interaction, there is "in-phase" character of the interannual variations of winter AOD, fog days, and LCCs. It indicates that the variations of aerosol in Beijing and its peripheral areas have impacts on interannual changes of fog days and LCCs in this area. The EOF analyses of the meteorological data further reveal the climate change regions and long-term trends of winter sunshine duration-reducing, and LCC- and fog days-increasing in North China. The areas of significant changes of the first EOF eigenvectors (FEE) of sunshine duration, fog days, LCCs almost superpose on corresponding marked regions of interdecadal differences between the 1990s and 1980s, and all accord with the S-N zonal high value pattern and high correlation region of winter AOD in Beijing and its peripheral areas. Interannual variations of their associated time coefficients (ATC) are in phase with that of regional mean AOD, and both of them have a secular rising trend. Results by EOF mode analyses depict the regional climatic change principal character of winter sunshine

  3. Vaccination and herd immunity to infectious diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Roy M.; May, Robert M.

    1985-11-01

    An understanding of the relationship between the transmission dynamics of infectious agents and herd immunity provides a template for the design of effective control programmes based on mass immunization. Mathematical models of the spread and persistence of infection provide important insights into the problem of how best to protect the community against disease.

  4. Measurement and Modeling: Infectious Disease Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kretzschmar, MEE

    2016-01-01

    After some historical remarks about the development of mathematical theory for infectious disease dynamics we introduce a basic mathematical model for the spread of an infection with immunity. The concepts of the model are explained and the model equations are derived from first principles. Using th

  5. Infectious endocarditis caused by Escherichia coli

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Trine Kiilerich; Arpi, Magnus; Fritz-Hansen, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Although Escherichia coli is among the most common causes of Gram-negative bacteraemia, infectious endocarditis (IE) due to this pathogen is rare. A 67-y-old male without a previous medical history presented with a new mitral regurgitation murmur and persisting E. coli bacteraemia in spite of broad...

  6. Infectious Disease Transmission during Transfusion and Transplantation

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-08-13

    Dr. Matthew Kuehnert, Director of the Office of Blood, Organ, and Other Tissue Safety, discusses infections in transplants.  Created: 8/13/2012 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 8/15/2012.

  7. [Methods for diminishing mortality from infectious diseases].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Ershov, F I

    2009-01-01

    The paper reports analysis of the "Russian Cross" demographic phenomenon characteristic of the present-day Russia, that is a marked excess of mortality over the birth rate leading to the reduction of the country's population at a rate of 750-800 thou people per year. The main causes and factors of excess mortality are considered with reference to deaths from infectious (viral and microbial) diseases. Experts of the Russian Academy of Medical Sciences proposed the working concept of the research program "Avoidable population mortality from infectious diseases in 2010-2020". Its implementation envisages the use of up-to-date information and computer technologies including mathematical and computer simulation of morbidity and mortality processes in outbreaks and epidemics of infectious diseases. The use of computer-assisted technologies is illustrated by the example of smallpox epidemics. They permit to promptly analyse and prognosticate excess mortality from infectious diseases by applying new diagnostic tools and medicinal products. This approach is proposed for the evaluation of the effectiveness of different projects in the framework of the above program. Its realization requires the development of three special information (computer-aided) systems designated Projects, Infections, and Prognoses.

  8. Mathematical aspects of infectious disease dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boldin, B.

    2007-01-01

    The thesis `Mathematical aspects of infectious disease dynamics' by Barbara Boldin is about model formulation, analysis and interpretation of four questions arising from biology or medicine. Suppose that a new population is introduced into a steady community. When the basic reproduction ratio R_0 of

  9. Infectious diseases in the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumate, J

    1997-01-01

    Infecto-contagious diseases in the twenty-first century with respect to precedent will see themselves deprived of smallpox, dracunculiasis and very probably of paralyzing poliomyelitis. Vaccination-preventable diseases, such as measles, whooping cough, diphtheria, tetanus, rabies, some forms of meningitis, yellow fever and episodes of disseminated tuberculosis will greatly diminish in their rates of morbi-lethality; the elimination of some, and the eradication of measles, are expected. Other diseases such as diarrhea (including cholera), geo-helminthiasis, some severe respiratory tract infections and the majority of vector-transmitted infectious diseases will decrease due to improvements in potable water services, drainage, sanitary food control, living quarters, and individual and community anti-vector action. Leprosy, onchocerciasis and several parasitoses will be controlled by the available antimicrobial drugs. Infectious diseases will continue to be an important health problem due to: Reduction in the immunocompetence resulting from the aging of the population, chemotherapies necessary for neoplasms, and autoimmune pathology and the survival of persons with primary immunodeficiencies; lifestyles prone to infectious pathology, such as mega-city urbanization, children in day care centers, industrialized foods, intravenous drug addiction, sexual liberation, global commerce, and tourism; antibiotic-multiresistant microbial flora; environmental disturbances as a result of global warming, deforestation, the settling of virgin areas, dams, the large-scale use of pesticides, fertilizers and antimicrobials, and natural/social disasters generators of poverty, violence and deprivation will result in emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases already controlled in the past.

  10. Met uitloop meer kans op parasitaire infecties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijck, I.A.J.M.

    2003-01-01

    Parasitaire infecties vormen een belangrijk probleem in de biologische- en scharrelhouderij. In een veldinventarisatie van het Praktijkonderzoek van ASG werden meer Ascaris suum (spoelwormen), coccidiën en Toxoplasma gondii gevonden op bedrijven met uitloop dan op bedrijven zonder uitloop. Nader ond

  11. Simulation of the influence of historical land cover changes on the global climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [Nanjing Univ. of Aeronautics and Astronautics (China). College of Civil Aviation; Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Yan, X. [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing (China). Key Lab. of Regional Climate-Environment for East Asia; Beijing Normal Univ. (China). State Key Lab. of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology (ESPRE); Wang, Z. [British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge (United Kingdom)

    2013-09-01

    In order to estimate biogeophysical effects of historical land cover change on climate during last three centuries, a set of experiments with a climate system model of intermediate complexity (MPM-2) is performed. In response to historical deforestation, the model simulates a decrease in annual mean global temperature in the range of 0.07-0.14 C based on different grassland albedos. The effect of land cover changes is most pronounced in the middle northern latitudes with maximum cooling reaching approximately 0.6 C during northern summer. The cooling reaches 0.57 C during northern spring owing to the large effects of land surface albedo. These results suggest that land cover forcing is important for study on historical climate change and that more research is necessary in the assessment of land management options for climate change mitigation. (orig.)

  12. Climate change adaptation in Ethiopia: to what extent does social protection influence livelihood diversification?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weldegebriel, Zerihun; Prowse, Martin Philip

    2013-01-01

    Social-protection programmes like the Productive Safety-Net Programme (PSNP) in Ethiopia can play a positive role in promoting livelihoods and enhancing risk management. This article uses propensity score matching to estimate its effect on income diversification. The results suggest that receivin...... in a positive manner for climate adaptation. The article concludes by arguing for the promotion of positive forms of income diversification and the further investigation of the PSNP’s influence on autonomous adaptation strategies....

  13. Influence of redox conditions and mechanical action on change in peat humic acid composition

    OpenAIRE

    2007-01-01

    Mechanical action on humic acids is shown to result in change of their composition accompanying decrease in aromaticity degree and increase in oxygen-containing fragments. Mechanical treatment of peat in oxidizing conditions increases the efficiency of extracting water-soluble components and humic acids to the maximum. Structural parameters and functional composition of humic acid molecules change at peat treatment in the redox conditions depending on the conditions.

  14. Secular influence of change in the heliocentric gravitation constant GM ⊙ on evolution of orbits of Meteor Streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin-Sen

    2016-06-01

    The Secular influence of the change in the heliocentric gravitational constant on the evolution of orbits of Meteor Streams is examined by using the method of celestial mechanics with variable mass and variable gravitational constant. The change in the heliocentric gravitational constant includes the combined changes in the sun's mass and gravitational constant obtained from the modern observation of planets and spacecraft. The perturbation equations are solved by expanding series with mean anomaly. The solutions of the secular and periodic variation of orbital elements are derived. The theoretical results for the secular variables of the semi-major axes, solar distances at perihelion and orbital periods are given for three Meteor Streams: Dracorids, Quadrantids, and Ursids. The numerical results are shown in Table 2. The discussion and conclusion are drawn.

  15. Factors influencing farmers’ choices of adaptation to climate change in Ekiti State, Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwakemi Adeola Obayelu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change poses a great threat to human security through erratic rainfall patterns and decreasing crop yields, contributing to increased hunger. The perceptions of the indigenous people about climate change and their responses to climate change have significant roles to play in addressing climate change. Therefore a critical study on farmers’ choices of adaptation to is critical for ensuring food security poverty alleviation. A multi-stage random sampling technique was used to select 156 households in Ekiti state while descriptive statistics and multinomial logit were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. The results showed that the most widely used adaptation method by the farmers were soil and water conservation measures (67 percent. The multinomial logit analysis revealed that the factors explaining farmer’s choices of climate change adaptation include age of the farmers, gender of the household head, years of education, years of farming experience, household size, farmers information on climate change, farmers access to credit, farm income, non-farm income, livestock ownership and extension contact.

  16. Separate and combined influence of posture and sprint running on plasma volume changes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsampoukos, Antonios; Stokes, Keith; Nevill, Mary

    2014-01-01

    It is currently unknown whether any changes in plasma volume (PV) after sprint running are inherent to sprint running per se or are due to other confounding factors such as changes in posture. The purpose of the present study was to examine the independent effects of sprint running on PV changes. Eight females completed two trials on separate days: (1) a 30-s sprint on a non-motorised treadmill and (2) a control trial where no exercise was undertaken but blood samples were taken at identical time points as in the exercise trial. Changes in PV were calculated using haematocrit and haemoglobin. Post-sprint PV reductions were greater in the sprint than the control trial (mean: -17.7, SD=3.1% vs. mean: -7.5, s = 4.9, Psprint than the control trial in most sampling points. These data show that sprint running of only 30 s induces transient reductions in PV independently of posture change. The present findings suggest that PV changes due to sprint running should be routinely reported as well as the posture and the exact time in this posture.

  17. Infectious diseases and climate:Case of Morocco

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Kahime Kholoud; Behnassi Mohamed; Messouli Mohammed; Boussaa Samia; Ali Boumezzough

    2016-01-01

    It is predicted that the life cycle, incidence and spread of several infectious diseases will be increasingly and adversely affected by climate change. Morocco, designated as an area of significant impact by numerous reports of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is notably susceptible to such drastic climate-related health consequences. The present work thus examines the increasing risk of vector-borne diseases in hazard-prone localities, while also highlights the current lack of dedicated scientific research in this critical area. It further identifies the severe challenges both of health adaptation to climate change and of consequent policy responses, before providing a more detailed overview of Morocco’s adaptive capacity to such crises.

  18. On the influence of temporal change on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps in an alpine catchment, Switzerland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meusburger, K.; Alewell, C.

    2009-04-01

    Global change (as a combination of climate and land use change) poses a risk to stability of alpine soils, and may enhance landslide hazard. The occurrence of landslides depends on static catchment characteristics (e.g. geology, topography etc.), as well as triggering factors that are variable in time (dynamic factors), such as event characteristics and land use. However, in literature the effects of temporal change are still discussed controversially and most statistical landslide prediction models rely on static catchment characteristics alone. In this study, we aim to assess the additional influence of dynamic factors on landslide susceptibility and on the validity of commonly used statistical landslide models. The Urseren Valley (Central Swiss Alps) was chosen as study area due to the evidence of climate and land use change. To assess the influence of catchment characteristics on landslide susceptibility, we set up a logistic regression model using 20 static predictor variables. The additional impact of dynamic risk factors was evaluated with historic data (aerial photographs and meteorological time series). We found that geology, slope and stream density were the most significant static predictors and could explain 70% of the landslide variation. However, the area affected by landslides increased by 92% from 1959 to 2004, which highlights the crucial role of dynamic landslide triggering factors. Furthermore, more recent landslides (since 2000) could only in part be predicted, which confirmed our proposed hypothesis that the validity of statistical hazard models may worsen over time. Discrepancies between predicted susceptibility and observed landslides mainly occurred in areas that have undergone land use changes. Consequently, slopes, that have formerly been classified as only "medium" landslide susceptibility may nonetheless have a high probability to fail under changed management. Spatial information of the impact of land use on landslide susceptibility

  19. Estradiol influences the mechanical properties of human fetal osteoblasts through cytoskeletal changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muthukumaran, Padmalosini [Department of Bioengineering, National University of Singapore (Singapore); Lim, Chwee Teck [Department of Bioengineering, National University of Singapore (Singapore); Department of Mechanical Engineering, National University of Singapore (Singapore); Mechanobiology Institute, National University of Singapore (Singapore); Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART), National University of Singapore (Singapore); Lee, Taeyong, E-mail: bielt@nus.edu.sg [Department of Bioengineering, National University of Singapore (Singapore)

    2012-07-06

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Estradiol induced stiffness changes of osteoblasts were quantified using AFM. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Estradiol causes significant decrease in the stiffness of osteoblasts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Decreased stiffness was caused by decreased density of f-actin network. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Stiffness changes were not associated with mineralized matrix of osteoblasts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Estradiol increases inherent alkaline phosphatase activity of osteoblasts. -- Abstract: Estrogen is known to have a direct effect on bone forming osteoblasts and bone resorbing osteoclasts. The cellular and molecular effects of estrogen on osteoblasts and osteoblasts-like cells have been extensively studied. However, the effect of estrogen on the mechanical property of osteoblasts has not been studied yet. It is important since mechanical property of the mechanosensory osteoblasts could be pivotal to its functionality in bone remodeling. This is the first study aimed to assess the direct effect of estradiol on the apparent elastic modulus (E{sup Asterisk-Operator }) and corresponding cytoskeletal changes of human fetal osteoblasts (hFOB 1.19). The cells were cultured in either medium alone or medium supplemented with {beta}-estradiol and then subjected to Atomic Force Microscopy indentation (AFM) to determine E{sup Asterisk-Operator }. The underlying changes in cytoskeleton were studied by staining the cells with TRITC-Phalloidin. Following estradiol treatment, the cells were also tested for proliferation, alkaline phosphatase activity and mineralization. With estradiol treatment, E{sup Asterisk-Operator} of osteoblasts significantly decreased by 43-46%. The confocal images showed that the changes in f-actin network observed in estradiol treated cells can give rise to the changes in the stiffness of the cells. Estradiol also increases the inherent alkaline phosphatase activity of the cells. Estradiol induced stiffness

  20. Changes in intracellular calcium concentration influence beat-to-beat variability of action potential duration in canine ventricular myocytes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kistamas, K; Szentandrassy, N; Hegyi, B; Vaczi, K; Ruzsnavszky, F; Horvath, B; Banyasz, T; Nanasi, P P; Magyar, J

    2015-02-01

    The aim of the present work was to study the influence of changes in intracellular calcium concentration ([Ca(2+)]i) on beat-to-beat variability (short term variability, SV) of action potential duration (APD) in isolated canine ventricular cardiomyocytes. Series of action potentials were recorded from enzymatically isolated canine ventricular cells using conventional microelectrode technique. Drug effects on SV were evaluated as relative SV changes determined by plotting the drug-induced changes in SV against corresponding changes in APD and comparing these data to the exponential SV-APD function obtained with inward and outward current injections. Exposure of myocytes to the Ca(2+) chelator BAPTA-AM (5 μM) decreased, while Ca(2+) ionophore A23187 (1 μM) increased the magnitude of relative SV. Both effects were primarily due to the concomitant changes in APD. Relative SV was reduced by BAPTA-AM under various experimental conditions including pretreatment with veratridine, BAY K8644, dofetilide or E-4031. Contribution of transient changes of [Ca(2+)]i due to Ca(2+) released from the sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) was studied using 10 μM ryanodine and 1 μM cyclopiazonic acid: relative SV was reduced by both agents. Inhibition of the Na(+)-Ca(2+) exchanger by 1 μM SEA0400 increased relative SV. It is concluded that elevation of [Ca(2+)]i increases relative SV significantly. More importantly, Ca(2+) released from the SR is an important component of this effect.

  1. Assessment of climatic factors influence on interannual changes in the global surface air temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusakova, Maria; Karlin, Lev

    2014-05-01

    A model to assess a number of factors such as TSI, albedo, cloudiness and greenhouse gases including water vapour affecting global surface air temperature (SAT) changes has been developed. To develop the model solar energy transformation in the atmosphere and the other radiation fluxes transformation were investigated. It's a common knowledge that some part of the incoming solar energy is reflected into space by the Earth's surface, aerosol and cloud particles. A contribution of these components to changes in the reflected solar energy was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. During the period of 2001 - 2010, clouds were found to be the basic contributor to the changes in reflected shortwave radiation. Some part of outgoing terrestrial radiation is retained in the atmosphere by greenhouse gases, water vapour and cloudiness. A contribution of these components to changes in the absorbed longwave radiation was assessed on the basis of developed linear parameterization. It was estimated that the contribution of water vapour was dominant during the analyzed period. The developed parameterization of global albedo made it possible to assess the contribution of TSI to global SAT changes. Making use of the parameterizations listed above the model has been improved. The model calculations showed that the our projections of global SAT to 2030 were lower than IPCC estimates.

  2. Influence of temprature moisture and time on dimensional change of stone type IV

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sahebi.SM.

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Statement of Problem: Different temperature and moisture around Iran and wide usage of stone type IV in dental laboratories in our country were the reasons for us for doing this study. Purpose: In this survey the effect of temperature, moisture and time on dimensional change of dental stone type IV (Velmix were investigated. Materials and Methods: In this experimental study cube shape Metal models (10×10×10mm was made for Taking impression. We used special tray, which has ten holes (15×20×25mm and made impression with condensational silicone in two-step procedure, and poured it with stone type IV. stone cubes were divided to different groups. 3 groups holed in fix moisture and variable tempraure and 5 groups in fix temperature and variable moisture. After 2 hours, 24 hours and one-week dimension of stone cubes were measured. Then analysis was done with ANOVA and dauncan. Results: The following conclusions were achieved: 1-Time has no effect on dimensional changes. 2-Tempreture and moisture has some effect on dimensional changes in stone IV. Increasing of temperature result in stone contraction and increasing in moisture result in stone expansion. Conclusion: The best temperature for least dimensional change is 20C and the best moisture for a least dimensional change is 30 %.

  3. Infectious prion diseases in humans: cannibalism, iatrogenicity and zoonoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haïk, Stéphane; Brandel, Jean-Philippe

    2014-08-01

    In contrast with other neurodegenerative disorders associated to protein misfolding, human prion diseases include infectious forms (also called transmitted forms) such as kuru, iatrogenic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. The transmissible agent is thought to be solely composed of the abnormal isoform (PrP(Sc)) of the host-encoded prion protein that accumulated in the central nervous system of affected individuals. Compared to its normal counterpart, PrP(Sc) is β-sheet enriched and aggregated and its propagation is based on an autocatalytic conversion process. Increasing evidence supports the view that conformational variations of PrP(Sc) encoded the biological properties of the various prion strains that have been isolated by transmission studies in experimental models. Infectious forms of human prion diseases played a pivotal role in the emergence of the prion concept and in the characterization of the very unconventional properties of prions. They provide a unique model to understand how prion strains are selected and propagate in humans. Here, we review and discuss how genetic factors interplay with strain properties and route of transmission to influence disease susceptibility, incubation period and phenotypic expression in the light of the kuru epidemics due to ritual endocannibalism, the various series iatrogenic diseases secondary to extractive growth hormone treatment or dura mater graft and the epidemics of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease linked to dietary exposure to the agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy.

  4. Pathogenesis and Diagnostic Approaches of Avian Infectious Bronchitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faruku Bande

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Infectious bronchitis (IB is one of the major economically important poultry diseases distributed worldwide. It is caused by infectious bronchitis virus (IBV and affects both galliform and nongalliform birds. Its economic impact includes decreased egg production and poor egg quality in layers, stunted growth, poor carcass weight, and mortality in broiler chickens. Although primarily affecting the respiratory tract, IBV demonstrates a wide range of tissues tropism, including the renal and reproductive systems. Thus, disease outcome may be influenced by the organ or tissue involved as well as pathotypes or strain of the infecting virus. Knowledge on the epidemiology of the prevalent IBV strains in a particular region is therefore important to guide control and preventions. Meanwhile previous diagnostic methods such as serology and virus isolations are less sensitive and time consuming, respectively; current methods, such as reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR, Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (RFLP, and sequencing, offer highly sensitive, rapid, and accurate diagnostic results, thus enabling the genotyping of new viral strains within the shortest possible time. This review discusses aspects on pathogenesis and diagnostic methods for IBV infection.

  5. The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellen Quataert,; Storlazzi, Curt; Arnold van Rooijen,; Ap van Dongeren,; Cheriton, Olivia

    2015-01-01

    A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

  6. Influence of limited feeding on metabolic changes in lipids after single lethal irradiation of rats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Toropila, M.; Alers, I.; Alersova, E.; Dyatelinka, I.; Praslichka, M. (Univerzita P.J. Safarika, Kosice (Czechoslovakia))

    A study was made of the influence of adaptation of rats to limited feeding (2 h a day during 3 weeks) and the response of the adapted animals to whole body X-irradiation with a lethal dose of 14.35 Gy. The concentration of unesterified fatty acids in the blood and the total cholesterol content were shown to decrease between the 1st and 24th hours following irradiation: the content of phospholipids decreased 60 min after irradiation. In the bone marrow of rats adapted to limited feeding, a more pronounced accumulation of triacylglycerols was noted as late as 72 h after irradiation.

  7. CHANGES OF SELECTED PHYSIOLOGICAL INDICES IN MEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THERMAL HEATING AND COOLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prystupa Tetyana

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The research objective is defining the influence of exposure to heat during the Finnish sauna treatment in the morning hours on selected physiological indices in men, who were monitored during a series of three sauna treatments in a row. 74 healthy men took part in the studies. Body weight and its composition was diagnosed with the help of TANITA BODY COMPOSITION ANALYZER TBF-300 based on bioelectrical impedance analysis. The conducted research confirm the hypothesis about the positive effect of the Finnish sauna on the body mass components, such as body mass, BMI, TBW (kg and % body fat.

  8. Changes in the lichen flora influenced by the Bełchatów Industrial Region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krystyna Czyżewska

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available At the beginning of our study, i.e.. before opening the Bełchatów brown coal mine and the power station 155 species of lichens were registered in the period 1970-1985. A preliminary estimation of the influence of the Bełchatów Industrial Region (BIR on the lichen flora has been performed. More than 1% of the lichen flora has entirely disappcared, about 43% of the species have shown partial devastation of their localities and numerous localities of more than 35% of taxa have been threatened.

  9. Changes of weed infestation in winter wheat field under the influence of nitrogen fertilizing intensification

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jerzy Szymona

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In a strict field experiment we have studied the influence of various doses of nitrogen fertilization (0, 100, 175 kg N per ha on the species composition and the number on weeds occurring in a field of winter wheat, cultivated on humus fertile soil. The optimum nitrogen dose for wheat (100 kg N per ha did not cause vast differences in the weed community, in comparison with a control (without fertilization with N. However, its enlargement to 175 kg N per ha limited the number of species witch invested wheat with weeds, causing at the same time the compensation of nitrophilus species.

  10. Influence of a local change of depth on the behavior of bouncing oil drops

    CERN Document Server

    Carmigniani, Remi; Symon, Sean; McKeon, Beverley J

    2013-01-01

    The work of Couder \\textit{et al} (see also Bush \\textit{et al}) inspired consideration of the impact of a submerged obstacle, providing a local change of depth, on the behavior of oil drops in the bouncing regime. In the linked videos, we recreate some of their results for a drop bouncing on a uniform depth bath of the same liquid undergoing vertical oscillations just below the conditions for Faraday instability, and show a range of new behaviors associated with change of depth. This article accompanies a fluid dynamics video entered into the Gallery of Fluid Motion of the 66th Annual Meeting of the APS Division of Fluid Dynamics.

  11. Theoretical Analysis of the Influence of Longitudinal Stress Changes on Band Dimensions During Continuous Rolling Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sygut P.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents the results of studies on the effect of nonuniform temperature distribution over the length of feedstock on the variation of longitudinal stresses in the rolling direction and band dimension change during the continuous rolling process. The studies were performed based on actual engineering data for a 160x160 mm square cross-section feedstock of steel S355J0. Numerical modelling of the rolling process was performed using Forge 2008®, a finite-element based computer program. Thermovision measurements and bars geometrical dimension changes were carried out in a domestic steelworks.

  12. Climate change-induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    In coastal regions, several hazards may lead to floods, and if they occur concurrently, the damage will be higher than for the hazards individually. The paper outlines an approach for carrying out a risk analysis with several hazards and applies it on a case study in Greater Copenhagen where two...... and that climate change most likely will not increase the correlation. The overall change in flood return periods over a forecast horizon of 110 years are estimated to decrease by one to three orders of magnitude....

  13. Spatial Modelling Tools to Integrate Public Health and Environmental Science, Illustrated with Infectious Cryptosporidiosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lal, Aparna

    2016-02-02

    Contemporary spatial modelling tools can help examine how environmental exposures such as climate and land use together with socio-economic factors sustain infectious disease transmission in humans. Spatial methods can account for interactions across global and local scales, geographic clustering and continuity of the exposure surface, key characteristics of many environmental influences. Using cryptosporidiosis as an example, this review illustrates how, in resource rich settings, spatial tools have been used to inform targeted intervention strategies and forecast future disease risk with scenarios of environmental change. When used in conjunction with molecular studies, they have helped determine location-specific infection sources and environmental transmission pathways. There is considerable scope for such methods to be used to identify data/infrastructure gaps and establish a baseline of disease burden in resource-limited settings. Spatial methods can help integrate public health and environmental science by identifying the linkages between the physical and socio-economic environment and health outcomes. Understanding the environmental and social context for disease spread is important for assessing the public health implications of projected environmental change.

  14. The influence of changes of combustion gas temperature during flow around the horizontal cylinder on local Nu number

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Górska

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available The article the influence of changes of combustion gas temperature during flow around of horizontal cylinder on local Nu number was presented. In order to test an influence of effect waste gas temperature cycle of experimental investigations were conducted. Experimental tests were carried out on a properly designed measuring cylinder furnished with a number of thermocouples embedded along the cylinder perimeter. The cylinder was made from stainless steel of known thermal conductivity, and was cooled on the outer side through a water cooling system. The cylinder was placed horizontally in a heating chamber equipped with an axially positioned gas burner fired with natural gas. Gas and air feeds were regulated with control valves, based on combustion gas analyzer data.

  15. Influence of global temperature change on the geochemical processes in the Plitvice Lakes waters - a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sironić, Andreja; Barešić, Jadranka; Horvatinčić, Nada; Brozinčević, Andrijana; Vurnek, Maja; Kapelj, Sanja

    2016-04-01

    One of the major reasons for the global air temperature increase, recorded as the highest in the last decade, is considered to be the increase of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, in calculation of the global carbon budget a certain unknown carbon sink is identified, and karst relief is considered to be an important candidate for it, as well as being a source of carbon. Aquatic systems on karst enable carbon exchange between karst and atmosphere, often through groundwater geochemical carbonate rock dissolution (carbon sink) and in form of secondary calcium carbonate precipitation (carbon source). Protected area of the Plitvice Lakes National Park, settled in the karst area of Croatia, was chosen as a case study of karst geochemical processes. The Lakes are also specific for its tufa precipitation in form of tufa barriers. Physical and chemical data of water collected on 8 locations (2 springs and 6 lakes) in the last 30 years were studied. The data records were not systematic for all 30 years, so first the seasonal periodicity of all data was assessed and temporal change was investigated in each calendar month, and then the change was studied by comparing two distinct periods: 1981-1986 and 2010-2014. On all selected locations we observed temporal increase of air and water temperature, Ca2+ and HCO3- concentrations, calcite saturation index (SIcalc) and of calcite dissolution ionic ratio (IRcalc,) and a decrease in Mg/Ca ratio, though the intensity of this changes differ locally. No statistically significant change was observed for pH and CO2(aq) and Mg2+ concentrations. Discharge rates did not show significant change in the last 30 years; however there is a change in their seasonal distribution and more extreme values were recorded in recent period. Comparison of mean monthly air and water temperature for two periods implies more influence of groundwater inflow at all locations in recent period, which is probably a result of seasonal change in water

  16. Age and Environment Influences on Mouse Prion Disease Progression: Behavioral Changes and Morphometry and Stereology of Hippocampal Astrocytes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Bento-Torres

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Because enriched environment (EE and exercise increase and aging decreases immune response, we hypothesized that environmental enrichment and aging will, respectively, delay and increase prion disease progression. Mice dorsal striatum received bilateral stereotaxic intracerebral injections of normal or ME7 prion infected mouse brain homogenates. After behavior analysis, animals were euthanized and their brains processed for astrocyte GFAP immunolabeling. Our analysis related to the environmental influence are limited to young adult mice, whereas age influence refers to aged mice raised on standard cages. Burrowing activity began to reduce in ME7-SE two weeks before ME7-EE, while no changes were apparent in ME7 aged mice (ME7-A. Object placement recognition was impaired in ME7-SE, NBH-A, and ME7-A but normal in all other groups. Object identity recognition was impaired in ME7-A. Cluster analysis revealed two morphological families of astrocytes in NBH-SE animals, three in NBH-A and ME7-A, and four in NBH-EE, ME7-SE, and ME7-EE. As compared with control groups, astrocytes from DG and CA3 prion-diseased animals show significant numerical and morphological differences and environmental enrichment did not reverse these changes but induced different morphological changes in GFAP+ hippocampal astroglia. We suggest that environmental enrichment and aging delayed hippocampal-dependent behavioral and neuropathological signs of disease progression.

  17. Age and Environment Influences on Mouse Prion Disease Progression: Behavioral Changes and Morphometry and Stereology of Hippocampal Astrocytes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bento-Torres, J.; Sobral, L. L.; de Oliveira, R. B.; Anthony, D. C.; Vasconcelos, P. F. C.

    2017-01-01

    Because enriched environment (EE) and exercise increase and aging decreases immune response, we hypothesized that environmental enrichment and aging will, respectively, delay and increase prion disease progression. Mice dorsal striatum received bilateral stereotaxic intracerebral injections of normal or ME7 prion infected mouse brain homogenates. After behavior analysis, animals were euthanized and their brains processed for astrocyte GFAP immunolabeling. Our analysis related to the environmental influence are limited to young adult mice, whereas age influence refers to aged mice raised on standard cages. Burrowing activity began to reduce in ME7-SE two weeks before ME7-EE, while no changes were apparent in ME7 aged mice (ME7-A). Object placement recognition was impaired in ME7-SE, NBH-A, and ME7-A but normal in all other groups. Object identity recognition was impaired in ME7-A. Cluster analysis revealed two morphological families of astrocytes in NBH-SE animals, three in NBH-A and ME7-A, and four in NBH-EE, ME7-SE, and ME7-EE. As compared with control groups, astrocytes from DG and CA3 prion-diseased animals show significant numerical and morphological differences and environmental enrichment did not reverse these changes but induced different morphological changes in GFAP+ hippocampal astroglia. We suggest that environmental enrichment and aging delayed hippocampal-dependent behavioral and neuropathological signs of disease progression.

  18. VERSHINA – A POLISH VILLAGE IN SIBERIA. FACTORS INFLUENCING LANGUAGE MAINTENANCE UNDER CHANGING SOCIAL, CULTURAL, ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Głuszkowski

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The article discusses factors influencing language maintenance under changing social, cultural, economic and political conditions of Polish minority in Siberia. The village of Vershina was founded in 1910 by Polish voluntary settlers from Little Poland.During its first three decades Vershina preserved Polish language,traditions, farming methods and machines and also the Roman Catholic religion. The changes came to a village in taiga in the1930s. Vershina lost its ethnocultural homogeneity because of Russian and Buryat workers in the local kolkhoz. Nowadays the inhabitants of Vershina regained their minority rights: religious, educational and cultural. However, during the years of sovietization and ateization, their culture and customs became much more similar to other Siberian villages. Polish language in Vershina is under strong influence of Russian, which is the language of education,administration, and surrounding villages. Children from Polish-Russian families become monolingual and use Polish very rare, only asa school subject and in contacts with grandparents. The process of abandoning mother tongue in Vershina is growing rapidly. However,there are some factors which may hinder the actual changes:the activity of local Polish organisations and Roman Catholic parish as well as folk group “Jazhumbek”.

  19. U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... and thank you for your interest in the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID). ... This Web site provides an introduction to the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) ...

  20. Spatiotemporal Frameworks for Infectious Disease Diffusion and Epidemiology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Congdon

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Emerging infectious diseases, and the resurgence of previously controlled infectious disease (e.g., malaria, tuberculosis, are a major focus for public health concern, as well as providing challenges for establishing aetiology and transmission. [...

  1. Infectious Agents and Cancer Epidemiology Research Webinar Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infectious Agents and Cancer Epidemiology Research Webinar Series highlights emerging and cutting-edge research related to infection-associated cancers, shares scientific knowledge about technologies and methods, and fosters cross-disciplinary discussions on infectious agents and cancer epidemiology.

  2. Understanding and influencing behaviour change by farmers to improve water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackstock, K L; Ingram, J; Burton, R; Brown, K M; Slee, B

    2010-11-01

    Diffuse pollution from agriculture remains a significant challenge to many countries seeking to improve and protect their water environments. This paper reviews literature relating to the provision of information and advice as a mechanism to encourage farmers to mitigate diffuse pollution. The paper presents findings from a literature review on influencing farmer behaviour and synthesizes three main areas of literature: psychological and institutional theories of behaviour; shifts in the approach to delivery of advice (from knowledge transfer to knowledge exchange); and the increased interest in heterogeneous farming cultures. These three areas interconnect in helping to understand how best to influence farmer behaviour in order to mitigate diffuse pollution. They are, however, literatures that are rarely cited in the water management arena. The paper highlights the contribution of the 'cultural turn' taken by rural social scientists in helping to understand collective and individual voluntary behaviour. The paper explores how these literatures can contribute to the existing understanding of water management in the agricultural context, particularly: when farmers question the scientific evidence; when there are increased calls for collaborative planning and management; and when there is increased value placed on information as a business commodity. The paper also highlights where there are still gaps in knowledge that need to be filled by future research - possibly in partnership with farmers themselves. Whilst information and advice has long been seen as an important part of diffuse pollution control, increasing climate variability that will require farmers to practice adaptive management is likely to make these mechanisms even more important.

  3. Environmental influences on the at-sea behaviour of a major consumer, Mirounga leonina, in a rapidly changing environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trevor McIntyre

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the distribution and foraging ecology of major consumers within pelagic systems, specifically in relation to physical parameters, can be important for the management of bentho-pelagic systems undergoing rapid change associated with global climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances such as fishing (i.e., the Antarctic Peninsula and Scotia Sea. We tracked 11 adult male southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina, during their five-month post-moult foraging migrations from King George Island (Isla 25 de Mayo, northern Antarctic Peninsula, using tags capable of recording and transmitting behavioural data and in situ temperature and salinity data. Seals foraged mostly within the Weddell–Scotia Confluence, while a few foraged along the western Antarctic Peninsula shelf of the Bellingshausen Sea. Mixed model outputs suggest that the at-sea behaviour of seals was associated with a number of environmental parameters, especially seafloor depth, sea-ice concentrations and the temperature structure of the water column. Seals increased dive bottom times and travelled at slower speeds in shallower areas and areas with increased sea-ice concentrations. Changes in dive depth and durations, as well as relative amount of time spent during the bottom phases of dives, were observed in relation to differences in overall temperature gradient, likely as a response to vertical changes in prey distribution associated with temperature stratification in the water column. Our results illustrate the likely complex influences of bathymetry, hydrography and sea ice on the behaviour of male southern elephant seals in a changing environment and highlight the need for region-specific approaches to studying environmental influences on behaviour.

  4. Influencing Attitudes and Changing Behavior: A Basic Introduction to Relevant Methodology, Theory, and Applications. Revised Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimbardo, Philip; Ebbesen, Ebbe B.

    In this introductory text to the field of attitude change, the emphasis is on one of the end products of research in social psychology--manipulation and control of attitudes and related behaviors. The text first defines the concept of attitude, then identifies ideas from the areas of history, literature, law, religion, and the social sciences that…

  5. The influence of frozen soil change on water balance in the upper Yellow River Basin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuo, L.; Zhao, L.; Zhou, B.

    2013-12-01

    Yellow River supports 30% of China's population and 13% of China's total cultivated area. About 35% of the Yellow River discharge comes from the upper Yellow River Basin. Seasonally frozen, continuous and isolated permafrost soils coexist and cover the entire upper Yellow River Basin. The spatial distribution of various frozen soisl is primarily determined by the elevation in the basin. Since the past five decades, air temperature has increased by a rate of 0.03 C/year in the upper Yellow River Basin. Many studies reported the conversions of continuous to isolated permafrost soil, permafrost soil to seasonally frozen soil and the thickening of the active layer due to rising temperature in the basin. However, very few studies reported the impact of the change of frozen soil on the water balance in the basin. In this study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is applied in the upper Yellow River Basin to study the change of frozen soil and its impact on the water balance. Soil temperature and soil liquid content measured up to 3 m below ground surface at a number of sites in the upper Yellow River Basin and the surroundings are used to evaluate the model simulation. Streamflow is also calibrated and validated using historical streamflow records. The validated VIC model is then used to investigate the frozen soil change and the impact of the change on water balance terms including surface runoff, baseflow, evapotranspiration, soil water content, and streamflow in the basin.

  6. Ecological risk assessment of pesticides in the EU: what factors and groups influence policy changes?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hunka, Agnieszka D.; Meli, Mattia; Palmqvist, Annemette; Thorbek, Pernille; Forbes, Valery E.

    2015-01-01

    For the last couple of years, European environmental risk assessment (ERA) regulations have undergone significant changes. The new 1107/2009 directive which came into effect in 2011 has triggered an on-going debate on defining specific protection goals for ERA. During this period, we conducted a stu

  7. Examining Leadership Style Influence on Engagement in a National Change Process: Implications for Leadership Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamm, Alexa J.; Lamm, Kevan W.; Rodriguez, Mary T.; Owens, Courtney T.

    2016-01-01

    Individuals expected to offer leadership are often chosen based on their power position within the field of interest and specialization in the context area being addressed and not on their leadership style. Leadership education curriculum often focuses on change as a product of leadership and leadership styles but places little emphasis on how the…

  8. Influence of cataract surgery and blood pressure changes caused by sodium restriction on retinal vascular diameter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Takatoshi Tano

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Takatoshi Tano1, Yoshimune Hiratsuka2, Koichi Ono1, Akira Murakami11Department of Ophthalmology, Juntendo University School of Medicine, Tokyo; 2National Institute of Public Health, Tokyo, JapanPurpose: To investigate the impact of cataract surgery and blood pressure changes induced by one week of sodium restriction on retinal vascular diameter.Methods: Fundus photographs of 200 patients were obtained before and one week after cataract surgery. For one week after admission, 100 patients received sodium restriction and 100 patients (ie, the control group did not receive sodium restriction. The diameter of the retinal vessels and blood pressure were compared between the sodium restriction group and the control group. The vascular diameter was measured using an objective computer-based method.Results: Neither group had a significant change in the diameter of the retinal vessels after cataract surgery. Although there was no significant change in retinal arterial and venular diameter in the sodium restriction group, one-week sodium restriction significantly reduced mean blood pressure. However, multiple linear regression analyses indicated that an increase in retinal arteriolar diameter was significantly associated with diabetes, hyperlipidemia, and alcohol intake.Conclusion: Cataract surgery and blood pressure reduction induced by one week of sodium restriction resulted in no significant change in retinal arteriolar diameter.Keywords: cataract surgery, hypertension, retinal blood vessel diameter, retinal fundus camera, sodium restriction.

  9. How an Orientation to Learning Influences the Expansive-Restrictive Nature of Teacher Learning and Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feeney, Eric J.

    2016-01-01

    This study examined teachers' learning situated in a school to reveal factors that support and hinder learning in the workplace. The investigation analyzed teachers' orientation to learning, examining beliefs, practices, and experiences about teachers' learning in relation to change in the workplace. A hypothesis is that teacher learning and…

  10. Are interdecadal sea level changes along the Indian coast influenced by variability of monsoon rainfall?

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Shankar, D.; Shetye, S.R.

    to Mumbai occurs within a season, but the slow mixing in the ocean forces changes in the cross-shore density gradient on longer timescales. This density gradient forces a two-layer geostrophic circulation, with a surface current, which flows...

  11. Population Composition, Migration and Inequality: The Influence of Demographic Changes on Disaster Risk and Vulnerability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donner, William; Rodriguez, Havidan

    2008-01-01

    The changing demographic landscape of the United States calls for a reassessment of the societal impacts and consequences of so called "natural" and technological disasters. An increasing trend towards greater demographic and socio-economic diversity (in part due to high rates of international immigration), combined with mounting…

  12. New to Improve: The Mutual Influence between New Products and Societal Change Processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joore, J.P.

    2010-01-01

    The focus of design is changing rapidly, as new products are increasingly connected to each other and to the rest of the world. This means that the focus of the designer is less and less on the creation of tangible artifacts, and increasingly on the development of complex interconnected systems. The

  13. The influence of speed and interval variation of serial stimuli on physiological change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, A.

    1970-01-01

    Studied changes in heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV), blood volume pulse (BVP), respiration speed (RS), and alpha rhythm (AR) under conditions of the variation of the speed and intervals of auditory stimuli in a serial 2-choice response task. The analysis of variance of the percentage sc

  14. Clinical oxygen enhancement ratio of tumors in carbon ion radiotherapy: the influence of local oxygenation changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antonovic, Laura; Lindblom, Emely; Dasu, Alexandru;

    2014-01-01

    The effect of carbon ion radiotherapy on hypoxic tumors has recently been questioned because of low linear energy transfer (LET) values in the spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP). The aim of this study was to investigate the role of hypoxia and local oxygenation changes (LOCs) in fractionated carbon ion...

  15. North-south differences in Chinese agricultural losses due to climate-change-influenced droughts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiang, Zhang; Lanying, Han; Jingjing, Lin; Qingyan, Cheng

    2016-12-01

    One of the effects of global climate change is increase in the frequency and severity of drought, which strongly affects the Chinese agricultural production. In order to cope these changes more effectively, it is important to document and analyze the agricultural losses caused by drought. We collected and analyzed conventional meteorological data and agricultural statistics data, in order to outline trends in drought occurrence and decline in agricultural yield. Data were assembled for the period 1960-2010. The study pays particular attention to regional differences between northern and southern China. Our results show the drought-caused agricultural loss rates (DCALR) in China have increased by approximately 0.5% per decade in the past 50 years. The study area in this paper is for the whole of the People's Republic of China, minus the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when we analyzed regional differences, we found that losses increased by approximately 0.6% per decade in northern China, close to twice the increase in southern China. Moreover, drought risks and agricultural losses are rising faster in northern China. Our results also indicate that the agriculture in northern China is more sensitive to changes in precipitation, whereas the agriculture in southern China is more sensitive to temperature changes.

  16. Can Mobile Phone Apps Influence People’s Health Behavior Change? An Evidence Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Becky; Li, Mu

    2016-01-01

    Background Globally, mobile phones have achieved wide reach at an unprecedented rate, and mobile phone apps have become increasingly prevalent among users. The number of health-related apps that were published on the two leading platforms (iOS and Android) reached more than 100,000 in 2014. However, there is a lack of synthesized evidence regarding the effectiveness of mobile phone apps in changing people’s health-related behaviors. Objective The aim was to examine the effectiveness of mobile phone apps in achieving health-related behavior change in a broader range of interventions and the quality of the reported studies. Methods We conducted a comprehensive bibliographic search of articles on health behavior change using mobile phone apps in peer-reviewed journals published between January 1, 2010 and June 1, 2015. Databases searched included Medline, PreMedline, PsycINFO, Embase, Health Technology Assessment, Education Resource Information Center (ERIC), and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL). Articles published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research during that same period were hand-searched on the journal’s website. Behavior change mechanisms were coded and analyzed. The quality of each included study was assessed by the Cochrane Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Results A total of 23 articles met the inclusion criteria, arranged under 11 themes according to their target behaviors. All studies were conducted in high-income countries. Of these, 17 studies reported statistically significant effects in the direction of targeted behavior change; 19 studies included in this analysis had a 65% or greater retention rate in the intervention group (range 60%-100%); 6 studies reported using behavior change theories with the theory of planned behavior being the most commonly used (in 3 studies). Self-monitoring was the most common behavior change technique applied (in 12 studies). The studies suggest that some features improve the

  17. Analysis of the therapeutic effect of ganciclovir and its influence on specific antibody to EB virus in the treatment of children with infectious mononucleosis%更昔洛韦治疗小儿传染性单核细胞增多症的疗效及其对EB病毒特异性抗体的影响

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谭启蓉; 移梅; 李卫; 吴雪芹

    2014-01-01

    Objective To investigate the clinical efficacy of ganciclovir (GCV) in the treatment of children with infectious mononucleosis (IM) and to detect the GCV' s influence on EB virus specific antibodies (VCA-IgM).Methods Sixty children with IM was collected from Qingbaijiang people' s hospital from January 2011 to January 2014.The patients were divided into treatment group and control group randomly.Patients in treatment group were given GCV,patients in control group were given IFN-α as treatment.The clinical symptoms improved,treatment efficiency,VCA-IgM and side effect were tested and compared between these two groups.Results The mean antipyretic time and mean term of sore throat relief was 3.57 d ± 1.24 d and 4.76 d ± 1.35 d respectively in treatment group,which were significantly shorter than the time in control 4.73d ± 1.36 d and 6.22d ± 1.75d,respectively.The effective rate of treatment group was significantly higher than that of control group 50.0% vs 26.7%.Three months after treatment,the positive rate of EBv-VCA-IgM in treatment group was significantly lower than that in control group 13.3% vs 53.3%.No severe side effect was observed in treatment group.Conclusions GCV is effective in treating children with IM.GCA can decrease EBv-VCA-IgM effectively.%目的 探讨更昔洛韦(ganciclovir,GCV)治疗小儿传染性单核细胞增多症(infectious mononucleosis,IM)的临床疗效并分析其对EB病毒(epstein-barr virus)特异性抗体(VCA-IgM)的影响.方法 选取2011年1月至2014年1月成都青白江区人民医院儿科收治的IM患儿60例,随机将其分至观察组和对照组.观察组给予GCV治疗,对照组给予干扰素(IFN-α)治疗.比较两组患儿临床症状改善情况、治疗有效率、治疗后VCA-IgM抗体转阴以及不良反应等情况.结果 观察组退热时间以及咽峡炎症状好转时间明显短于对照组[(3.57±1.24)d vs (4.76±1.35)d]、[(4.73±1.36)d vs (6.22±1.75)d](P<0.05),治疗

  18. The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messaoud, Yassine; Chen, Han Y H

    2011-02-16

    Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx) and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S.) in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation). As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, did not only differ with tree species, but

  19. Environmental change influences the life history of salmon Salmo salar in the North Atlantic Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jonsson, B; Jonsson, N; Albretsen, J

    2016-02-01

    Annual mean total length (LT) of wild one-sea-winter (1SW) Atlantic salmon Salmo salar of the Norwegian River Imsa decreased from 63 to 54 cm with a corresponding decrease in condition factor (K) for cohorts migrating to sea from 1976 to 2010. The reduction in LT is associated with a 40% decline in mean individual mass, from 2 to 1·2 kg. Hatchery fish reared from parental fish of the same population exhibited similar changes from 1981 onwards. The decrease in LT correlated negatively with near-surface temperatures in the eastern Norwegian Sea, thought to be the main feeding area of the present stock. Furthermore, S. salar exhibited significant variations in the proportion of cohorts attaining maturity after only one winter in the ocean. The proportion of S. salar spawning as 1SW fish was lower both in the 1970s and after 2000 than in the 1980s and 1990s associated with a gradual decline in post-smolt growth and smaller amounts of reserve energy in the fish. In wild S. salar, there was a positive association between post-smolt growth and the sea survival back to the River Imsa for spawning. In addition, among smolt year-classes, there were significant positive correlations between wild and hatchery S. salar in LT, K and age at maturity. The present changes may be caused by ecosystem changes following the collapse and rebuilding of the pelagic fish abundance in the North Atlantic Ocean, a gradual decrease in zooplankton abundance and climate change with increasing surface temperature in the Norwegian Sea. Thus, the observed variation in the life-history traits of S. salar appears primarily associated with major changes in the pelagic food web in the ocean.

  20. The influence of recent climate change on tree height growth differs with species and spatial environment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yassine Messaoud

    Full Text Available Tree growth has been reported to increase in response to recent global climate change in controlled and semi-controlled experiments, but few studies have reported response of tree growth to increased temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂ concentration in natural environments. This study addresses how recent global climate change has affected height growth of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx and black spruce (Picea mariana Mill B.S. in their natural environments. We sampled 145 stands dominated by aspen and 82 dominated by spruce over the entire range of their distributions in British Columbia, Canada. These stands were established naturally after fire between the 19th and 20th centuries. Height growth was quantified as total heights of sampled dominant and co-dominant trees at breast-height age of 50 years. We assessed the relationships between 50-year height growth and environmental factors at both spatial and temporal scales. We also tested whether the tree growth associated with global climate change differed with spatial environment (latitude, longitude and elevation. As expected, height growth of both species was positively related to temperature variables at the regional scale and with soil moisture and nutrient availability at the local scale. While height growth of trembling aspen was not significantly related to any of the temporal variables we examined, that of black spruce increased significantly with stand establishment date, the anomaly of the average maximum summer temperature between May-August, and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, but not with the Palmer Drought Severity Index. Furthermore, the increase of spruce height growth associated with recent climate change was higher in the western than in eastern part of British Columbia. This study demonstrates that the response of height growth to recent climate change, i.e., increasing temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentration, did not only differ with tree

  1. Economic losses from US hurricanes consistent with an influence from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, Francisco; Botzen, W. J. Wouter; Tol, Richard S. J.

    2015-11-01

    Warming of the climate system and its impacts on biophysical and human systems have been widely documented. The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events have also changed, but the observed increases in natural disaster losses are often thought to result solely from societal change, such as increases in exposure and vulnerability. Here we analyse the economic losses from tropical cyclones in the United States, using a regression-based approach instead of a standard normalization procedure to changes in exposure and vulnerability, to minimize the chance of introducing a spurious trend. Unlike previous studies, we use statistical models to estimate the contributions of socioeconomic factors to the observed trend in losses and we account for non-normal and nonlinear characteristics of loss data. We identify an upward trend in economic losses between 1900 and 2005 that cannot be explained by commonly used socioeconomic variables. Based on records of geophysical data, we identify an upward trend in both the number and intensity of hurricanes in the North Atlantic basin as well as in the number of loss-generating tropical cyclone records in the United States that is consistent with the smoothed global average rise in surface air temperature. We estimate that, in 2005, US$2 to US$14 billion of the recorded annual losses could be attributable to climate change, 2 to 12% of that year's normalized losses. We suggest that damages from tropical cyclones cannot be dismissed when evaluating the current and future costs of climate change and the expected benefits of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

  2. Detecting the influence of fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon aerosols on near surface temperature changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Jones

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Past research has shown that the dominant influence on recent global climate changes is from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases with implications for future increases in global temperatures. One mitigation proposal is to reduce black carbon aerosol emissions. How much warming can be offset by the aerosol's control is unclear, especially as its influence on past climate has not been previously unambiguously detected. In this study observations of near-surface warming over the last century are compared with simulations using a climate model, HadGEM1. In the simulations black carbon, from fossil fuel and bio-fuel sources (fBC, produces a positive radiative forcing of about + 0.25 Wm−2 over the 20th century, compared with a little under + 2.5 Wm−2 for well mixed greenhouse gases. A simulated warming of global mean near-surface temperatures over the twentieth century from fBC of 0.14 ± 0.1 K compares with 1.06 ± 0.07 K from greenhouse gases, -0.58 ± 0.10 K from anthropogenic aerosols, ozone and land use changes and 0.09 ± 0.09 K from natural influences. Using a detection and attribution methodology, the observed warming since 1900 has detectable influences from anthropogenic and natural factors. Fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon is found to have a detectable contribution to the warming over the last 50 years of the 20th century, although the results are sensitive to a number of analysis choices, and fBC is not detected for the later fifty year period ending in 2006. The attributed warming of fBC was found to be consistent with the warming from the unscaled simulation. This study suggests that there is a possible significant influence from fBC on global temperatures, but its influence is small compared to that from greenhouse gas emissions.

  3. Detecting the influence of fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon aerosols on near surface temperature changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. S. Jones

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Past research has shown that the dominant influence on recent global climate changes is from anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases with implications for future increases in global temperatures. One mitigation proposal is to reduce black carbon aerosol emissions. How much warming can be offset by controlling black carbon is unclear, especially as its influence on past climate has not been previously unambiguously detected. In this study observations of near-surface warming over the last century are compared with simulations using a climate model, HadGEM1. In the simulations black carbon, from fossil fuel and bio-fuel sources (fBC, produces a positive radiative forcing of about +0.25 Wm−2 over the 20th century, compared with +2.52 Wm−2 for well mixed greenhouse gases. A simulated warming of global mean near-surface temperatures over the twentieth century from fBC of 0.14 ± 0.1 K compares with 1.06 ± 0.07 K from greenhouse gases, −0.58 ± 0.10 K from anthropogenic aerosols, ozone and land use changes and 0.09 ± 0.09 K from natural influences. Using a detection and attribution methodology, the observed warming since 1900 has detectable influences from anthropogenic and natural factors. Fossil fuel and bio-fuel black carbon is found to have a detectable contribution to the warming over the last 50 yr of the 20th century, although the results are sensitive to the period being examined as fBC is not detected for the later fifty year period ending in 2006. The attributed warming of fBC was found to be consistent with the warming from fBC unscaled by the detection analysis. This study suggests that there is a possible significant influence from fBC on global temperatures, but its influence is small compared to that from greenhouse gas emissions.

  4. The influence of glacial ice sheets on Atlantic meridional overturning circulation through atmospheric circulation change under glacial climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherriff-Tadano, Sam; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Oka, Akira; Chan, Wing-Le

    2016-04-01

    Recent coupled modeling studies have shown that the existence of the glacial ice sheets intensifies the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Since this may play an important role in maintaining a strong AMOC over the last glacial period, which is suggested by recent reconstruction study, it is very important to understand the process by which glacial ice sheets intensify the AMOC. Here, a decoupled simulation is conducted to investigate the effect of wind change due to glacial ice sheets on the AMOC, the crucial region where wind modifies the AMOC and the mechanism, which remained elusive in previous studies. First, from atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, the effect of glacial ice sheets on the surface wind is evaluated. Second, from ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments, the influence of the wind stress change on the AMOC is evaluated by applying only the changes in the surface wind as a boundary condition, while leaving surface heat and freshwater fluxes unchanged. Moreover, several sensitivity experiments are conducted. Using the AGCM, glacial ice sheets are applied individually. Using the OGCM, changes in the wind are applied regionally or at different magnitudes, ranging from the full glacial to modern levels. These experiments demonstrate that glacial ice sheets intensify the AMOC through an increase in the wind stress curl mainly at the North Atlantic mid-latitudes. This intensification is caused by the increased Ekman upwelling and gyre transport of salt while the change in sea ice transport works as a negative, though minor, feedback.

  5. The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas in Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahman NURKOVIĆ

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The influence of negative climate changes on physical development of urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina has been analysed in the paper. So, economy and society in urban and rural areas of Bosnia and Herzegovina are susceptible to environmental consequences of climate changes. In practice, this means that poorer countries in development of economic activities will suffer most due to climate changes, while some developed countries can be in a position to use new commercial possibilities. Presently, there is a significant scientific consensus that human activity affected the increase of atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, respectively the carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone and chlorofluorocarbon, as a result of global changes of climate that will probably change dramatically during the next centuries in Bosnia and Herzegovina. More and more intensive industrialisation and urbanisation, as well as tourism, a growing phenomenon of the 21st century, have numerous negative direct, indirect and multiplicative effects on flora and fauna habitats of Bosnia and Herzegovina. For all mentioned above, this paper tries to indicate to a need for more significant investing into tourism development, which is presently at a very low level of development in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the past ten years a dynamical development of tertiary activities in urban and rural areas has been distinguished; among which shopping centres take a significant position. 

  6. Influence of climate change and trophic coupling across four trophic levels in the Celtic Sea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentina Lauria

    Full Text Available Climate change has had profound effects upon marine ecosystems, impacting across all trophic levels from plankton to apex predators. Determining the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems requires understanding the direct effects on all trophic levels as well as indirect effects mediated by trophic coupling. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the pelagic food web in the Celtic Sea, a productive shelf region in the Northeast Atlantic. Using long-term data, we examined possible direct and indirect 'bottom-up' climate effects across four trophic levels: phytoplankton, zooplankton, mid-trophic level fish and seabirds. During the period 1986-2007, although there was no temporal trend in the North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO, the decadal mean Sea Surface Temperature (SST in the Celtic Sea increased by 0.66 ± 0.02 °C. Despite this, there was only a weak signal of climate change in the Celtic Sea food web. Changes in plankton community structure were found, however this was not related to SST or NAO. A negative relationship occurred between herring abundance (0- and 1-group and spring SST (0-group: p = 0.02, slope = -0.305 ± 0.125; 1-group: p = 0.04, slope = -0.410 ± 0.193. Seabird demographics showed complex species-specific responses. There was evidence of direct effects of spring NAO (on black-legged kittiwake population growth rate: p = 0.03, slope = 0.0314 ± 0.014 as well as indirect bottom-up effects of lagged spring SST (on razorbill breeding success: p = 0.01, slope = -0.144 ± 0.05. Negative relationships between breeding success and population growth rate of razorbills and common guillemots may be explained by interactions between mid-trophic level fish. Our findings show that the impacts of climate change on the Celtic Sea ecosystem is not as marked as in nearby regions (e.g. the North Sea, emphasizing the need for more research at regional scales.

  7. Influence Of Advertisments On Changes In The Urban Structure Of Cites On The Example Of Poznan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonenberg, Agata

    2015-09-01

    The article presents the results of studies on the influence of outdoor advertisements on the activation of selected areas in the spatial structure of the city of Poznań. The contents of advertisements were analyzed in terms of the places which advertisements placed on signs, billboards and advertising displays located in public spaces direct us to. The results of studies indicated that the majority of advertisements located in the city center of Poznań promote suburban locations, encouraging its inhabitants to make use of trade and services outside of the strict city center. At the same time, it was indicated that outside advertisements due to the content of the advertising message are a factor degrading the city center, directing potential customers away into the suburbs. In practice, it was noted that the phenomenon significantly decreases the effectiveness of actions directed towards revitalizing the city center and the urban activation of this region.

  8. Influence Of Advertisments On Changes In The Urban Structure Of Cites On The Example Of Poznan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bonenberg Agata

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of studies on the influence of outdoor advertisements on the activation of selected areas in the spatial structure of the city of Poznań. The contents of advertisements were analyzed in terms of the places which advertisements placed on signs, billboards and advertising displays located in public spaces direct us to. The results of studies indicated that the majority of advertisements located in the city center of Poznań promote suburban locations, encouraging its inhabitants to make use of trade and services outside of the strict city center. At the same time, it was indicated that outside advertisements due to the content of the advertising message are a factor degrading the city center, directing potential customers away into the suburbs. In practice, it was noted that the phenomenon significantly decreases the effectiveness of actions directed towards revitalizing the city center and the urban activation of this region.

  9. The influence of behavior preceding a reinforced response on behavior change in the classroom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kazdin, A E

    1977-01-01

    The influence of behavior that immediately precedes a reinforced target response on the effectiveness of a reinforcement contingency was examined in two experiments with mentally retarded children in a special-education classroom. Two reinforcement schedules were examined in each experiment. For each schedule, a prespecified period of attentive behavior served as the target response. The schedules differed in whether inattentive or attentive behavior was required immediately to precede the target response. These schedules were examined with one child in a simultaneous treatment design using praise as the reinforcer (Experiment I), and with two children in separate reversal designs using tokens as the reinforcer (Experiment II). While attentive behavior increased under each schedule, the increase was greater when attentive rather than inattentive behavior preceded the reinforced response. The results indicated that the effect of a contingency may be determined not only by the specific response reinforced but also by the behavior that immediately precedes that response.

  10. 气候变暖对虫媒传染病影响的研究进展%Research progress on effect of climate warming on vector-borne infectious diseases

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    崔维琪; 曾强

    2012-01-01

    The effect of global warming on insect vector mainly includes changing the regional distribution of insect vectors, increasing the reproductive speed and invasiveness of insect vectors, and shortening the external incubation period of pathogens. Many studies show that the distribution of many tropical insects is expanding continually under the effect of global wanning, and the vector-borne infectious diseases which had only occurred in the tropical area in the past have frequently happened in the subtropical area. The incidence rate of vector-borne diseases increases in the global, outbreaks of some old vector-borne infectious diseases occurred again, and the epidemic range of new vector-borne infectious diseases is continuously expanding. The vector-borne infectious diseases that are influenced by climate change include malaria, schistosomiasis, plague, dengue fever and other new vector-borne infectious diseases. In face of global warming, it is important to slow down and control temperature rise, protect natural environment , improve the study of relationship between climate and vector-borne infectious diseases, and implement the prevention and control of vector-borne infectious diseases.%全球气候变暖对虫媒的影响主要表现在改变虫媒的地区分布,增加虫媒繁殖速度与侵袭力和缩短病原体的外潜伏期.大量资料显示,全球气候变暖的趋势使得许多热带生物不断扩大分布范围,过去仅在热带地区出现的虫媒传染病,也频频出现在亚热带地区.媒介生物性疾病近年在全球呈上升趋势,一些原有的虫媒传染病再度暴发,新的虫媒传染病流行范围不断扩大.受气候变化影响较大的虫媒传染病包括疟疾、血吸虫病、鼠疫、登革热和其他及新发虫媒传染病.提示要面对气候变暖的趋势,努力减缓和控制地球气温的上升,保护好自然环境,加强气候与虫媒传染病传播关系的研究,做好虫媒传染疾病的预防控制工作.

  11. The influence of changes in water content on the electrical resistivity of a natural unsaturated loess

    CERN Document Server

    Munoz-Castelblanco, José; Delage, Pierre; Cui, Yu Jun

    2013-01-01

    Non-destructive methods of measuring water content in soils have been extensively developed in the last decades, especially in soil science. Among these methods, the measurements based on the electrical resistivity are simple and reliable thanks to the clear relationship between the water content and the electrical resistivity of soils. In this work, a new electrical resistivity probe was developed to monitor the change in local water content in the triaxial apparatus. The probe is composed of two-pair of electrodes, and an electrical current is induced through the soil at the vicinity of the contact between the probe and the specimen. Some experimental data on the changes in resistivity with the degree of saturation were obtained in specimens of a natural unsaturated loess from Northern France. Two theoretical models of resistivity were also used to analyze the obtained data. Results are finally discussed with respect to the loess's water retention properties.

  12. Technology change priorities influencing competition quality promotion: Case study of Iran Keaton Polyester Manufacturing Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pouria Nour

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available In the changing world with various customers’ demands the businesses tend to improve their advantages to beat their rivals by means of better quality, lower prices and so. For Iranian polyester market quality is of crucial importance and is achieved through changing and updating technologies. According to highly regarded model of CAPTECH, which is recommended by UNIDO, technology parameters are defined in each phase and not generally as a whole. In the end the biggest gaps are defined. The main goal is to prioritize the main parameters affecting Iranian polyester company's quality. In order to fulfill our goal, 20 high and medium managers were questioned for this paper. The questions were gathered according to UNIDO samples. After a qualitative and quantitative test we concluded that the biggest gap is for supply chain(56.91 and the lowest gap is for combination phase(43.97.

  13. Art in Science: Selections from Emerging Infectious Diseases

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2014-02-12

    Polyxeni Potter, retired managing editor of the Emerging Infectious Diseases journal, discusses the history of the journal and her new book, Art in Science: Selections from Emerging Infectious Diseases.  Created: 2/12/2014 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 2/13/2014.

  14. [Influence of employment changes on incomes and expenditures of Czechoslovak households].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsl, M

    1988-01-01

    The author notes that employment of both spouses is almost universal in Czechoslovakia and that one income alone is insufficient to provide for the basic needs of a household. However, current economic reforms and changes in production will reduce the demand for labor and lead to a decline in the rate of employment. The consequences for economic and social policy are considered. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND RUS)

  15. Risk evolution: how can changes in the built environment influence the potential loss of natural hazards?

    OpenAIRE

    Schwendtner, B.; Papathoma-Köhle, M.; T. Glade

    2013-01-01

    Alpine areas often suffer significant loss and damage due to a range of natural processes such as landslides, debris flows, snow avalanches or floods. Sealing of the soil surface, settling in endangered areas and enhanced human intervention in the natural settings, as well as socio-economic changes, increase the risk and susceptibility of built environments to natural hazards and the costs of the consequences in a spatio-temporal context. The present study examines the loss ...

  16. Understanding the influence of climate change on the embodied energy of water supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo, Weiwei; Wang, Haiying; Jacobs, Jennifer M

    2016-05-15

    The current study aims to advance understandings on how and to what degree climate change will affect the life cycle chemical and energy uses of drinking water supply. A dynamic life cycle assessment was performed to quantify historical monthly operational embodied energy of a selected water supply system located in northeast US. Comprehensive multivariate and regression analyses were then performed to understand the statistical correlation among monthly life cycle energy consumptions, three water quality indicators (UV254, pH, and water temperature), and five climate indicators (monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum/minimum temperatures, total precipitation, and total snow fall). Thirdly, a calculation was performed to understand how volumetric and total life cycle energy consumptions will change under two selected IPCC emission scenarios (A2 and B1). It was found that volumetric life cycle energy consumptions are highest in winter months mainly due to the higher uses of natural gas in the case study system, but total monthly life cycle energy consumptions peak in both July and January because of the increasing water demand in summer months. Most of the variations in chemical and energy uses can be interpreted by water quality and climate variations except for the use of soda ash. It was also found that climate change might lead to an average decrease of 3-6% in the volumetric energy use of the case study system by the end of the century. This result combined with conclusions reached by previous climate versus water supply studies indicates that effects of climate change on drinking water supply might be highly dependent on the geographical location and treatment process of individual water supply systems.

  17. The influence of students' cognitive and motivational variables in respect of cognitive conflict and conceptual change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sukjin; Scharmann, Lawrence C.; Noh, Taehee; Koh, Hanjoong

    2005-09-01

    In this study, the relationships among students’ cognitive/motivational variables, cognitive conflict, and conceptual change were investigated. Subjects were 159 seventh graders in Korea. Tests regarding logical thinking ability, field dependence/independence (FDI), meaningful learning approach, failure tolerance, mastery goal orientation, and self-efficacy were administered to examine students’ cognitive/motivational characteristics. A preconception test and a test of responses to discrepant event were also conducted to examine the degree of students’ cognitive conflict induced by a discrepant event. Computer-assisted instruction, designed to change an undifferentiated weight-density concept into a scientific density concept, was then provided to students as a conceptual change intervention. A conception test was administered as a post-test. The results indicated that FDI was the only statistically significant variable correlated with the degree of cognitive conflict. A stepwise multiple regression analysis revealed that logical thinking ability, FDI, and failure tolerance were statistically significant predictors of the conception test scores. Educational implications are discussed.

  18. Influence of phosphorus on Microcystis growth and the changes of other environmental factors

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    JIN Xiang-can; CHU Zhao-sheng; YI Wen-li; HU Xiao-zhen

    2005-01-01

    The growth processes of Microcystis aeruginosa (FACHB-41) in simulated Taihu Lake water with different phosphorus concentrations were investigated using laboratory microcosms. The algal biomass increased with the increase of phosphorus concentration when it was lower than 0.445 mg/L, while the dissolved oxygen(DO) and pH increased, dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN) and light intensity underwater(I) decreased. Responding to the changes of the "environmental factors", the cellular carbohydrate and its ratio to cellular protein decreased generally as phosphorus increased. However, when phosphorus concentration was higher than 1.645 mg/L, the biomass, the "environmental factors", the cellular carbohydrate and its ratio to cellular protein did not change likewise.Since the environmental factors and the physiological and biochemical responses are important factors, the change of environmental factors and cell physiology and biochemistry induced by phosphorus may become the key factors that steer the growth and dominance of Microcystis under certain conditions. To sum up, phosphorus not only stimulate the growth of Microcystis directly by supplying nutrient element, but also has complex interactions with other "environmental factors" and play important roles in the growth processes of Microcystis .

  19. CO2 and fire influence tropical ecosystem stability in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanahan, Timothy M.; Hughen, Konrad A.; McKay, Nicholas P.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Scholz, Christopher A.; Gosling, William D.; Miller, Charlotte S.; Peck, John A.; King, John W.; Heil, Clifford W.

    2016-07-01

    Interactions between climate, fire and CO2 are believed to play a crucial role in controlling the distributions of tropical woodlands and savannas, but our understanding of these processes is limited by the paucity of data from undisturbed tropical ecosystems. Here we use a 28,000-year integrated record of vegetation, climate and fire from West Africa to examine the role of these interactions on tropical ecosystem stability. We find that increased aridity between 28–15 kyr B.P. led to the widespread expansion of tropical grasslands, but that frequent fires and low CO2 played a crucial role in stabilizing these ecosystems, even as humidity changed. This resulted in an unstable ecosystem state, which transitioned abruptly from grassland to woodlands as gradual changes in CO2 and fire shifted the balance in favor of woody plants. Since then, high atmospheric CO2 has stabilized tropical forests by promoting woody plant growth, despite increased aridity. Our results indicate that the interactions between climate, CO2 and fire can make tropical ecosystems more resilient to change, but that these systems are dynamically unstable and potentially susceptible to abrupt shifts between woodland and grassland dominated states in the future.

  20. Climate change influences on the annual onset of Lyme disease in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monaghan, Andrew J; Moore, Sean M; Sampson, Kevin M; Beard, Charles B; Eisen, Rebecca J

    2015-07-01

    Lyme disease is the most commonly reported vector-borne illness in the United States. Lyme disease occurrence is highly seasonal and the annual springtime onset of cases is modulated by meteorological conditions in preceding months. A meteorological-based empirical model for Lyme disease onset week in the United States is driven with downscaled simulations from five global climate models and four greenhouse gas emissions scenarios to project the impacts of 21st century climate change on the annual onset week of Lyme disease. Projections are made individually and collectively for the 12 eastern States where >90% of cases occur. The national average annual onset week of Lyme disease is projected to become 0.4-0.5 weeks earlier for 2025-2040 (pStates exhibit larger shifts (1.0-3.5 weeks) compared to the Northeastern and upper Midwestern States (0.2-2.3 weeks) by 2065-2080. Winter and spring temperature increases primarily cause the earlier onset. Greater spring precipitation and changes in humidity partially counteract the temperature effects. The model does not account for the possibility that abrupt shifts in the life cycle of Ixodes scapularis, the primary vector of the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi in the eastern United States, may alter the disease transmission cycle in unforeseen ways. The results suggest 21st century climate change will make environmental conditions suitable for earlier annual onset of Lyme disease cases in the United States with possible implications for the timing of public health interventions.